ALBERT

Description: [1]  The spatial structure of winter atmospheric blocking and its impact on the surface temperatures are analysed for the current climate and a strong CO2 emission scenario over the Euro-Atlantic sector, using four different global circulation models. The models perform very well in describing the spatial pattern of meteorological fields associated with blocking, despite the well known negative bias associated with the European blocking frequency. While a slight increase in the frequency of the Atlantic blocking is observed for the future climate, the European blocking frequency remains unchanged, with a net eastward shift apparent for the European warm blocking events. Under enhanced CO2 forcing, Atlantic blocking is associated with reduced amplitudes for positive and negative anomalies both in the geopotential height at 500 hPa and in the surface temperature, in particular for the latter. The anomalies associated with the occurrence of the two types of European blocking (those dominated by warm and cold air masses) exhibit changed shapes and locations in both the geopotential height and surface temperature fields, with only the cold cases leading to severe cold weather conditions over Europe and most of the polar region. Moreover, the eastward shift and amplification of the anticyclone associated with the warm events in the future is found to generate strong positive surface temperature anomalies over the entire polar cap. As a whole, the results show a marked increase in the sensitivity of Arctic temperatures to blocking in the future.

Description: [1]  Substorm injected electrons (several-100 s keV) produce whistler-mode chorus waves that are thought to have a major impact on the radiation belts by causing both energization and loss of relativistic electrons in the outer belt. High-altitude measurements, such as those from the Van Allen Probes, provide detailed wave measurements at a few points in the magnetosphere. But physics-based models of radiation-belt dynamics require knowledge of the global distribution of chorus waves. We demonstrate that time-dependent, global distributions of near-equatorial chorus wave intensities can be inferred from low-Earth-orbit (LEO) measurements of precipitating low-energy electrons. We compare in-situ observations of near-equatorial chorus waves with LEO observations of precipitating electrons and derive a heuristic formula that relates, quantitatively, electron precipitation fluxes to chorus wave intensities. Finally, we demonstrate how that formula can be applied to LEO precipitation measurements and in-situ Van Allen Probes wave measurements to provide global, data-driven inputs for radiation belt models.

Description: [1]  Type III radio bursts are produced near the local electron plasma frequency and/or near its harmonic by fast electrons ejected from the solar active regions and moving through the corona and solar wind. These bursts have dynamic spectra with frequency rapidly falling with time. This paper presents two new methods developed to detect type III bursts automatically in the data from High Frequency Receiver (HFR) of the STEREO/WAVES (S/WAVES) radio instrument onboard the STEREO spacecraft. The first technique is applicable to the low frequency band (HFR-1: 125 kHz to 1.975 MHz) only. This technique can possibly be implemented in on-board satellite software aimed at preliminary detection of bursts and identification of time intervals with relatively high solar activity. In the second technique the bursts are detected in both the low frequency band and the high frequency band (HFR-2: 2.025 MHz to 16.025 MHz), with the computational burden being higher by one order of magnitude as compared with that for the first technique. Preliminary tests of the method show that the performance of the first technique is quite high, P dL  = 72 % ± 3 %. The performance of the second technique is considerably higher, P dL  +  H  = 81 % ± 1%, while the number of false alarms does not exceed 10% for one daily spectrum.

Description: [1]  A dipolarizing flux bundle (DFB) is a small magnetotail flux tube (typically 〈 ~3 R E in X GSM and Y GSM ) with a significantly more dipolar magnetic field than its background. Dipolarizing flux bundles typically propagate earthward at a high speed from the near-Earth reconnection region. Knowledge of a DFB's flux transport properties leads to better understanding of near-Earth (X = -6 to -30 R E ) magnetotail flux transport and thus conversion of magnetic energy to kinetic and thermal plasma energy following magnetic reconnection. We explore DFB properties with a statistical study using data from the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) mission. To establish the importance of DFB flux transport, we compare it with transport by bursty bulk flows (BBFs) that typically envelop DFBs. Because DFBs coexist with flow bursts inside BBFs, they contribute 〉65% of BBF flux transport, even though they last only ~30% as long as BBFs. The rate of DFB flux transport increases with proximity to Earth and to the pre-midnight sector, as well as with geomagnetic activity and distance from the neutral sheet. Under the latter two conditions the total flux transport by a typical DFB also increases. Dipolarizing flux bundles appear more often during increased geomagnetic activity. Since BBFs have been previously shown to be the major flux transporters in the tail, we conclude that DFBs are the dominant drivers of this transport. The occurrence rate of DFBs as a function of location and geomagnetic activity informs us about processes that shape global convection and energy conversion

Description: [1]  The substorm current wedge (SCW) is a fundamental component of geomagnetic substorms. Models tend to describe the SCW as a simple line current flowing into the ionosphere towards dawn and out of the ionosphere towards dusk, linked by a westward electrojet. We use multi-spacecraft observations from perigee passes of the Cluster 1 and 4 spacecraft during a substorm on 15 Jan 2010, in conjunction with ground-based observations, to examine the spatial structuring and temporal variability of the SCW. At this time, the spacecraft travelled east-west azimuthally above the auroral region. We show that the SCW has significant azimuthal sub-structure on scales of 100 km at altitudes of 4,000-7,000 km. We identify 26 individual current sheets in the Cluster 4 data and 34 individual current sheets in the Cluster 1 data, with Cluster 1 passing through the SCW 120-240 s after Cluster 4 at 1,300-2,000 km higher altitude. Both spacecraft observed large-scale regions of net upward and downward field-aligned current, consistent with the large-scale characteristics of the SCW, although sheets of oppositely directed currents were observed within both regions. We show that the majority of these current sheets were closely aligned to a north-south direction,in contrast to the expected east-west orientation of the pre-onset aurora. Comparing our results with observations of the field-aligned current associated with bursty bulk flows (BBFs) we conclude that significant questions remain for the explanation of SCW structuring by BBF driven “wedgelets”. Our results therefore represent constraints on future modelling and theoretical frameworks on the generation of the SCW.

Description: [1]  Large horizontal winds and wind shears have been measured in the lower thermosphere by rockets, lidars, and non-specular meteor radars. This paper describes a detailed analysis of 3 multi-hour non-specular meteor radar data sets collected at the Jicamarca Radio Observatory. This provides some of the highest resolution sustained measurements in this part of the atmosphere. These show: (1) intense wind speeds, maintaining 180 m/s for half an hour and 160 m/s for another half an hour; (2) winds structured in layers that move up or, more commonly, down in the pre-dawn hours at rates of a few km/hr; (3) intense wind shears that typically persist at around 50 m/s/km but, in one instance, sustains values approaching 100 m/s/km for a few hours.

Description: [1]  We present results from an analysis of high-latitude ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) coupling to the solar wind during a moderate magnetic storm which occurred on 5-6 August 2011. During the storm, a multi-point set of observations of the ionosphere and thermosphere was available. We make use of ionospheric measurements of electromagnetic and particle energy made by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), and neutral densities measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite to infer: (1) the energy budget and (2) timing of the energy transfer process during the storm. We conclude that the primary location for energy input to the IT system may be the extremely high latitude region. We suggest that the total energy available to the IT system is not completely captured either by observation or empirical models.

Description: [1]  The level of solar activity varies from cycle to cycle. This variability is probably caused by a combination of nonlinear and random effects. Based on surface flux transport simulations, we show that the observed inflows into active regions and towards the activity belts provide an important nonlinearity in the framework of Babcock-Leighton model for the solar dynamo. Inclusion of these inflows also leads to a reproduction of the observed proportionality between the open heliospheric flux during activity minima and the maximum sunspot number of the following cycle. A substantial component of the random variability of the cycle strength is associated with the cross-equatorial flux plumes that occur when large, highly-tilted sunspot groups emerge close to the equator. We show that the flux transported by these events is important for the amplitude of the polar fields and open flux during activity minima. The combined action of inflows and cross-equatorial flux plumes provides an explanation for the weakness of the polar fields at the end of solar cycle 23 (and hence for the relative weakness of solar cycle 24).

Description: [1]  We present the first direct measurement of neutral oxygen in the lunar exosphere, detected by the Chandrayaan-1 Energetic Neutral Analyzer (CENA). With the lunar surface consisting of about 60% of oxygen in number, the neutral oxygen detected in CENA's energy range (11 eV – 3.3 keV) is attributed to have originated from the lunar surface, where it is released through solar wind ion sputtering. We verify this proposition by comparing the measured oxygen content in two different mass spectra groups with ion sputtering theory. One group contains mass spectra that were recorded when the solar wind consisted of almost pure hydrogen and the other group contains mass spectra that were recorded when the helium content in the solar wind was very high (〉3.5%). Since helium is a much more effective sputtering agent than hydrogen (5% of alpha particles present in the solar wind typically contribute 30% of the total sputter yield), these two groups should show clear differences in the oxygen sputter yield. Fitting of CENA's mass spectra with calibration spectra from ground and in-flight data resulted in the detection of a robust oxygen signal, with a flux of 0.2 to 0.4 times the flux of backscattered hydrogen, depending, as expected, on the solar wind helium content and particle velocity. These measurements present the first in-situ detection of oxygen in the lunar exosphere. For the two solar wind types observed, we derive sub-solar surface oxygen atom densities of N 0  = (1.1 ± 0.3) ⋅ 10 7 m − 3 and (1.4 ± 0.4) ⋅ 10 7 m − 3 , respectively, which agree well with earlier model predictions and measured upper limits. From these surface densities we derive, by modeling, column densities of N C  = (1.5 ± 0.5) ⋅ 10 13 m − 2 and (1.6 ± 0.5) ⋅ 10 13 m − 2 . [2]  In addition, in the CENA mass spectra, we identified for the first time a helium component. This helium is attributed to backscattering of solar wind helium (alpha particles) from the lunar surface as neutral energetic helium atoms, which has been observed for the first time. This identification is supported by the characteristic energy of the measured helium atoms, which is roughly four times the energy of reflected solar wind hydrogen, and the correlation with solar wind helium content.

Description: [1]  The diffuse aurora is an almost permanent feature in the Earth's upper polar atmosphere, providing the major source of ionizing energy input into the high-latitude region. Previous theoretical and observational studies have demonstrated that whistler-mode chorus scattering primarily accounts for intense nightside diffuse auroral precipitation within ~ 8 R E , but what causes the dayside diffuse aurora remains poorly understood. Using conjugate satellite wave and particle observations on 13 August 2009 from the THEMIS spacecraft and ground-based all-sky imager measurements at the South Pole on the dayside, we perform a quantitative analysis of wave driven diffusion and electron precipitation. Our results demonstrate that the dayside chorus scattering was the dominant contributor to the observed dayside diffuse auroral precipitation and that the chorus wave intensity primarily controlled its brightness, indicating that dayside chorus can be the major driver of the Earth's dayside diffuse aurora. While further investigations are required to bring closure to the origin of the dayside diffuse aurora under differing solar wind conditions and geomagnetic situations, our finding is an important complement to recent work on the formation mechanism of the diffuse aurora and provides improved understanding of the roles of resonant wave-particle interactions in diffuse auroral precipitation pattern on a global scale.

Description: [1]  Ultra Low Frequency (ULF: 0.001-5 Hz) magnetic records have recently been used in the search for short term earthquake prediction methods. The separation of local and global effects in the magnetic records is the greatest challenge in this research area. Geomagnetic indices are often used to predict global ULF magnetic behavior where it is assumed that increases in a geomagnetic index correspond with an increase in ULF power. This paper examines the relationships between geomagnetic indices and ULF power, spectral polarization ratio and the relationship between the spectral polarization ratio and solar wind parameters. The power in the ULF, Pc3-5 bands (10-600 s) shows a linear correlation coefficient of  0.2 with the Kp magnetic activity index. The correlation varies with magnetic local time (MLT) and latitude. The correlation coefficient is inversely related to the integrated power in the ULF Pc3 band (10-45 s) over MLT and magnetic latitude. The ratio of spectral powers Z ( ω )/ G ( ω ) is discussed and shown to be a promising parameter in the search for earthquake precursor signals in ULF records.

Description: [1]  Recent testing of a quantitative model describing the classical (region-1-sense, referred to as the R1 current loop) substorm current wedge (SCW) revealed systematic discrepancies between the observed and predicted amplitudes, which suggested us to include additional region-2-sense currents (R2-loop) earthward of the dipolarized region (SCW2L model). In this paper we discuss alternative circuit geometries of the 3d substorm current system and interpret simultaneous observations of the magnetic field dipolarizations by NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and by NASA Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) spacecraft, to quantitatively investigate the SCW2L model parameters. During two cases of a dipole-like magnetotail configuration, the dipolarization/injection front fortuitously stopped at r  ∼ 9 Re for the entire duration of ∼ 30 min-long SCW-related dipolarization within a unique, radially-distributed multi-spacecraft constellation, which allowed us to determine the locations and total currents of both SCW2L loops. In addition, we conducted a survey of the dipolarization amplitudes in events, simultaneously observed at 6.6 Re (GOES) and 11 Re (THEMIS) under a wide range of magnetotail conditions. We infer that the ratio I 2 / I 1 varies in the range 0.2 to 0.6 (median value 0.4) and that the equatorial part of the R2 current loop stays at the distance r  〉 6.6 Re in the case of a dipole-like field geometry ( BZ 0  〉 75 nT at 6.6 Re prior to the onset), but it is located at r  〈 6.6 Re in the case of a stretched magnetic field configuration (with BZ 0  〈 60 nT). Since the ground midlatitude perturbations are sensitive to the combined effect of the R1- and R2-sense current loops with the total current roughly equal to I 1  −  I 2 , the ratio I 2 / I 1 becomes an important issue when attempting to monitor the current disruption intensity from ground observations.

Description: [1]  This study examines the response to Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)-like heat forcing in a nonlinear shallow-water model, including monopolar heating source traveling eastward with an around the world period of 48 days and dipolar heating with zonal wave period of 48 days, with zonal wavenumber 2 confined in longitude to the MJO active regions. A jet localized in the Pacific is compared to a zonally uniform boreal basic flow. The results show that the Rossby wave response downstream exhibits intensified quasi-stationary anomalies in the Pacific jet exit region when the MJO-like heat forcing passes the Maritime Continent, in accord with the observational analysis by Adames and Wallace (2014). The dynamical mechanism suggested in this study can be used to interpret the intraseasonal MJO-PNA (Pacific North American Pattern) coherence and other extratropical intraseasonal events.

Description: [1]  We establish the first inter-model comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea-ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to three years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea-ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea-ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea-ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.

Description: Terrestrial ecosystems in the northern high-latitudes are currently experiencing drastic warming and recent studies suggest that boreal forests may be increasingly vulnerable to warming-related factors, including temperature-induced drought stress as well as shifts in fire regimes and insect outbreaks. Here, we analyze interannual relationships in boreal forest greening and climate over the last three decades using newly available satellite vegetation data. Our results suggest that due to continued summer warming in the absence of sustained increases in precipitation a turning point has been reached around the mid-1990s that shifted western central Eurasian boreal forests into a warmer and drier regime. This may be the leading cause for the emergence of large-scale negative correlations between summer temperatures and forest greenness. If such a regime shift would be sustained, the dieback of the boreal forest induced by heat and drought stress as predicted by vegetation models may proceed more rapidly than anticipated.

Description: Air-ground and ground-air elastic wave coupling are key processes in the rapidly developing field of seismo-acoustics and are particularly relevant for volcanoes. During a sustained explosive volcanic eruption, it is typical to record a sustained broadband signal on seismometers, termed eruption tremor. Eruption tremor is usually attributed to a subsurface seismic source process, such as the upward migration of magma and gases through the shallow conduit and vent. However, it is now known that sustained explosive volcanic eruptions also generate powerful tremor signals in the atmosphere, termed infrasonic tremor. We investigate infrasonic tremor coupling down into the ground and its contribution to the observed seismic tremor. Our methodology builds on that proposed by Ichihara et al. (2012) and involves cross correlation, coherence, and cross-phase spectra between waveforms from nearly collocated seismic and infrasonic sensors; we apply it to datasets from Mount St. Helens, Tungurahua, and Redoubt volcanoes.

Description: Reconstructing centennial timescale hydroclimate variability during the late Holocene is critically important for understanding large-scale patterns of drought and their relationship with climate dynamics. We present sediment oxygen isotope records spanning the last two millennia from 10 lakes, as well as climate model simulations, indicating that the Little Ice Age was dry relative to the Medieval Climate Anomaly in much of the Pacific Northwest of North America. This pattern is consistent with observed associations between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern Annular Mode and drought as well as with proxy-based reconstructions of Pacific ocean-atmosphere variations over the past 1000 years. The large amplitude of centennial variability indicated by the lake data suggests that regional hydroclimate is characterized by longer-term shifts in ENSO-like dynamics, and that an improved understanding of the centennial timescale relationship between external forcing and drought conditions is necessary for projecting future hydroclimatic conditions in western North America.

Description: The fusion dynamics of volcanic ash strongly impacts deposition in hot parts of jet engines. In this study, we investigate the sintering behavior of volcanic ash using natural ash of intermediate composition, erupted in 2012 at Santiaguito volcano, Guatemala. A material science procedure was followed in which we monitored the geometrical evolution of cylindrical-shape volcanic ash compact upon heating from 50 to 1400 °C in a heating microscope. Combined morphological, mineralogical and rheological analyses helped define the evolution of volcanic ash during fusion and sintering, and constrain their sticking potential as well as their ability to flow at characteristic temperatures. For the ash investigated, 1240 °C marks the onset of adhesion and flowability. The much higher fusibility of ash compared to that of typical test sands demonstrates for the need of a more extensive fusion characterization of volcanic ash in order to mitigate the risk posed on jet engine operation.

Description: GPS is accurately recording vertical motion of Earth's surface in elastic response to seasonal changes in surface water storage in California. California's mountains subside up to 12 mm in the fall and winter due to the load of snow and rain, then rise an identical amount in the spring and summer when the snow melts, the rain runs off, and soil moisture evaporates. We invert the GPS observations of seasonal vertical motions to infer changes in equivalent water thickness. GPS resolves the distribution of change in total water across California's physiographic provinces at a resolution of 50 km, compared to 200 km resolution from GRACE. The seasonal surface water thickness change is 0.6 m in the Sierra Nevada, Klamath, and southern Cascade Mountains and decreases sharply to about 0.1 m east into the Great Basin and west toward the Pacific coast. GPS provides an independent inference of change in total surface water, indicating water storage to be on average 50 per cent larger than in the NLDAS–Noah hydrology model, likely due to larger changes in snow and reservoir water than in the model.

Description: The effects of chemical two-way mixing on the Extratropical Transition Layer (ExTL) near the subtropical jet (STJ) is investigated by stratospheric tracer-tracer correlations. To this end, in-situ measurements were performed west of Africa (25- 32°N) during the TACTS/ESMVal mission in August/September 2012. The Atmospheric chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer AIMS sampling HCl and HNO 3 was for the first time deployed on the new German High Altitude and LOng range research aircraft HALO. Measurements of O 3 , CO, ECMWF analysis and the tight correlation of the unambiguous tracer HCl to O 3 and HNO 3 in the lower stratosphere were used to quantify the stratospheric content of these species in the ExTL. With increasing distance from the tropopause the stratospheric content increased from 10% to 100% with differing profiles for HNO 3 and O 3 . Tropospheric fractions of 20% HNO 3 and 40% O 3 were detected up to a distance of 30 K above the tropopause.

Description: Internal solitary waves (ISWs) are observed two times within 30 minutes in synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image pairs from the Envisat and ERS-2 tandem satellites. Three pairs of SAR images were acquired in the South China Sea (SCS) in April 2007, August 2008 and March 2009, and 13 ISWs were tracked between the image pair in an arcGIS environment. The phase speeds of these ISWs are calculated from their spatial displacement and time interval. The resultant ISW speeds agree well with the theoretical values estimated from the Sturm-Louisville equation using local bathymetric and monthly climatology ocean stratification data. This technique reveals the spatial variation in the ISWs speed in the water depth between 100 and 4000 m in the SCS. The study shows that ISWs speed is mainly affected by bottom topography, and generally decreases from deep to shallow water from east to west and from south to north.

Description: Recent studies have examined the anthropogenic contribution to specific extreme weather events, such as the European (2003) and Russian (2010) heat waves. While these targeted studies examine the attributable risk of an event occurring over a specified temporal and spatial domain, it is unclear how effectively their attribution statements can serve as a proxy for similar events occurring at different temporal and spatial scales. Here we test the sensitivity of attribution results to the temporal and spatial scales of extreme precipitation and temperature events by applying a probabilistic event attribution framework to output of two global climate models, each run with and without anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attributable risk tends to be more sensitive to the temporal than spatial scale of the event, increasing as event duration increases. Globally, correlations between attribution statements at different spatial scales are very strong for temperature extremes and moderate for heavy precipitation extremes.

Description: We present Cluster observations of wave-particle interactions during an earthward-propagating dipolarization front (DF) and associated fast plasma bulk flows detected at the central current sheet in Earth's magnetotail. During this period, flux tubes behind the DF frequently contain more energetic or hotter ions than did the pre-existing flux tubes ahead of the DF. On the other hand, electrons within the DF flux tubes heat less, or are even colder, than were the pre-existing populations, and are often accompanied by superposed isolated beams. At the same time, electrostatic emissions are strongly enhanced over a wide range of frequencies (up to several times the electron cyclotron frequency) behind the DFs. This low-frequency electrostatic wave power is well correlated with ion energization. From linear theory, we find two wave modes: a high-frequency beam mode and a low-frequency whistler mode that are associated with the electron beam component. We attribute the generation of whistlers to electron beams that persist for a while before undergoing rapid thermalization. The existence of isolated beam components behind DFs detected during the 4-sec Cluster spin period indicates that DFs either provide a continuous source of electron beams or facilitate a physical process that maintains the beams against rapid thermalization. Our analysis suggests that the earthward motion of the DF flux tube, via Fermi acceleration as the magnetic field lines behind the DF shorten, can lead to the persistent electron beams that generate whistler mode waves, which in turn can heat ions. This scenario, by which free energy in electron beams generates waves that then heat ions, accounts for the Cluster observations of different energization behaviors between electrons and ions behind DFs.

Description: We examine a unique data set from seven Hubble Space Telescope (HST) ‘visits’ that imaged Saturn's northern dayside ultraviolet emissions exhibiting usual circumpolar ‘auroral oval’ morphologies, during which Cassini measured the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) upstream of Saturn's bow shock over intervals of several hours. The auroras generally consist of a dawn arc extending towards noon centered near ~15º co-latitude, together with intermittent patchy forms at ~10º co-latitude and poleward thereof, located between noon and dusk. The dawn arc is a persistent feature, but exhibits variations in position, width, and intensity, which have no clear relationship with the concurrent IMF. However, the patchy post-noon auroras are found to relate to the (suitably lagged and averaged) IMF B z , being present during all four visits with positive B z and absent during all three visits with negative B z . The most continuous such forms occur in the case of strongest positive B z . These results suggest that the post-noon forms are associated with reconnection and open flux production at Saturn's magnetopause, related to the similarly-interpreted bifurcated auroral arc structures previously observed in this LT sector in Cassini UVIS data, whose details remain unresolved in these HST images. One of the intervals with negative IMF B z , however, exhibits a pre-noon patch of very high latitude emission extending poleward of the dawn arc to the magnetic/spin pole, suggestive of the occurrence of lobe reconnection. Overall, these data provide evidence of significant IMF-dependence in the morphology of Saturn's dayside auroras.

Description: A three-dimensional (3D) particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation of the whistler anisotropy instability is carried out for a collisionless, homogeneous, magnetized plasma with β e  = 0.10. This is the first 3D PIC simulation of the evolution of enchanced fluctuations from this growing mode driven by an anisotropic electron velocity distribution with T ⊥  e / T ‖ e  〉 1 where ⊥ and ∥ represent directions perpendicular and parallel to the background magnetic field B o , respectively. The early-time magnetic fluctuation spectrum grows with properties reflecting the predictions of linear theory with narrowband maxima at kc / ω e  ≃ 1 and k  ×  B o  = 0, and a wavevector anisotropy in the sense of k ⊥  〈 〈  k ∥ . Here ω e represents the electron plasma frequency. At later times the fluctuations undergo both a forward transfer to shorter wavelengths, also with k ⊥  〈 〈  k ∥ , and an inverse transfer to longer wavelengths with wavevector anisotropy k ⊥  〉 〉  k ∥ . The inverse transfer is consistent with a prediction of nonlinear three-wave coupling theory.

Description: Auroral ionospheric F-region density depletions observed by PFISR (Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar) during the MICA (Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling in the Alfvén Resonator) sounding rocket campaign are critically examined alongside complementary numerical simulations. Particular processes of interest include cavity formation due to intense frictional heating and Pedersen drifts, evolution in the presence of structured precipitation, and refilling due to impact ionization and downflows. Our analysis uses an ionospheric fluid model which solves conservation of mass, momentum, and energy equations for all major ionospheric species. These fluid equations are coupled to an electrostatic current continuity equation to self-consistently describe auroral electric fields. Energetic electron precipitation inputs for the model are specified by inverting optical data, and electric field boundary conditions are obtained from direct PFISR measurements. Thus, the model is driven in as realistic a manner as possible. Both ISR data and simulations indicate that the conversion of the F-region plasma to molecular ions and subsequent recombination is the dominant process contributing to the formation of the observed cavities, all of which occur in conjuction with electric fields exceeding ∼ 90 mV/m. Furthermore, the cavities often persist several minutes past the point when the frictional heating stops. Impact ionization and field-aligned plasma flows modulate the cavity depth in a significant way, but are of secondary importance to the molecular generation process. Informal comparisons of the ISR density and temperature fits to the model verify that the simulations reproduce most of the observed cavity features to a reasonable level of detail.

Description: Energetic particle injections in the near-Earth plasma sheet are critical for supplying particles and energy to the inner magnetosphere. Recent case studies have demonstrated a good correlation between injections and transient, narrow, fast flow channels as well as earthward reconnection (dipolarization) fronts in the magnetotail, but statistical observations beyond geosynchronous orbit (GEO) to verify the findings were lacking. By surveying trans-geosynchronous injections using THEMIS, we show that their likely origin is the earthward-traveling, dipolarizing flux bundles following near-Earth reconnection. The good correlation between injections and fast flows, reconnection fronts and impulsive, dawn-dusk electric field increases is not limited to within 12 R E , but extends out to 30 R E . Like near-Earth reconnection, both ion and electron injections are most probable in the pre-midnight sector. Similar to bursty bulk flows (BBFs), injection-time flow speeds are faster with increasing distance from Earth. With faster flows, injection intensity generally increases and extends to higher energy channels. With increased geomagnetic activity, injection occurrence rate increases (akin to that of BBFs) and spectral hardening occurs (κ decreases). The occurrence rate increase within the inner magnetosphere suggests that injections populate the radiation belts more effectively under enhanced geomagnetic activity. Our results are inconsistent with the classical concept of an azimuthally wide injection boundary moving earthward from ~9-12 R E to GEO under an enhanced cross-tail electric field. Rather, particle injection and transport occur along a large range of radial distances due to effects from earthward-penetrating, azimuthally localized, transient, strong electric fields of recently reconnected, dipolarizing flux bundles.

Description: A method for estimating the vector neutral wind profiles in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region of the upper atmosphere from Arecibo dual-beam incoherent scatter radar data is presented. The method yields continuous estimates of both the altitude-averaged F -region plasma drifts and all three components of the altitude-resolved neutral wind profiles in the MLT using data taken while the Arecibo feed system swings in azimuth. The problem is mixed determined, and its solution is not inherently unique. Second order Tikhonov regularization is used to find solutions consistent with the available data while being minimally structured, additional structure being unsupported by the data. The solution is found using the method of conjugate gradient least squares and sparse matrix mathematics. Example data acquired during an interval of midlatitude spread F are used to illustrate the method. The estimated wind profiles exhibit characteristics broadly consistent with gravity waves but are impulsive, with features that generally persist for less than one and a half wave periods.

Description: This study assesses the capability of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts to represent Sahel rainfall and a relative sea surface temperature (SST) index (RSI). The RSI measures the relative difference between subtropical North Atlantic SST and tropical SST and is highly correlated with Sahel rainfall. Ten-year predictions from 15 models initialized every five years (six initialized every year) beginning in 1960 are evaluated. The hindcasts show increased decadal variability compared to the uninitialized historical simulations, with a larger magnitude drought and smaller RSI in the 1970s and 1980s. The multimodel ensemble mean shows skillful predictions that are more accurate than persistence and historical simulations. Models that were able to realistically simulate the correlation between the RSI and Sahel rainfall in uninitialized historical simulations produced more skillful decadal hindcasts of Sahel rainfall as these models were able to successfully translate the SST that was improved through initialization, to more skillful Sahel rainfall predictions.

Description: A summary is presented of experimental optical observations at 4278 Å from close to a powerful (~150 kW) VLF transmitter (call-sign JXN) with a transmission frequency of 16.4 kHz. Approximately 2.5 seconds after transmitter turn-on, a sudden increase in optical emissions at 4278 Å was detected using a dedicated camera/CCD monitoring system recording at a frequency of 10 Hz. The optical signal is interpreted as a burst of electron precipitation lasting ~0.5 seconds, due to gyro-resonant wave-particle interactions between the transmitted wave and the magnetospheric electron population. The precipitation was centered on the zenith and had no detectable spatial structure. The timing of this sequence of events is in line with theoretical predictions and previous indirect observations of precipitation. This first direct measurement of VLF-induced precipitation at 4278 Å reveals the spatial and temporal extent of the resulting optical signal close to the transmitter.

Description: Near-surface ozone depletion events (ODEs) generally occur in the Arctic spring, and the frequency shows large inter-annual variations. We use surface ozone measurements at Barrow, Alert, and Zeppelinfjellet to analyze if their variations are due to climate variability. In years with frequent ODEs at Barrow and Alert, the Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern is usually in its negative phase, during which the Pacific jet is strengthened but the storm track originated over western Pacific is weakened. Both factors tend to reduce the transport of ozone-rich air-mass from mid-latitudes to the Arctic, creating a favorable environment for the ODEs. Correlation of ODE frequencies at Zeppelinfjellet with WP indices is higher in the 2000s, reflecting stronger influence of the WP pattern in recent decade to cover ODEs in broader Arctic regions. We find that the WP pattern can be used to diagnose ODE changes and subsequent environmental impacts in the Arctic spring.

Description: The temperature variability simulated by climate models is generally consistent with that observed in instrumental records at the scale of global averages, but further insight can also be obtained from regional analysis of the marine temperature record. A protocol is developed for comparing model simulations to observations that accounts for observational noise and missing data. General consistency between CMIP5 model simulations and regional sea surface temperature variability is demonstrated at interannual timescales. At interdecadal timescales, however, the variability diagnosed from observations is significantly greater. Discrepancies are greatest at low-latitudes, with none of the 41 models showing equal or greater interdecadal variability. The pattern of suppressed variability at longer timescales and smaller spatial scales appears consistent with models generally being too diffusive. Suppressed variability of low-latitude marine temperatures points to underestimation of intrinsic variability and may help explain why few models reproduce the observed temperature trends during the last fifteen years.

Description: We report the peculiar interaction of two type III bursts observed in the solar wind. As electrons beams propagating on the same magnetic field lines cross, a spectacular depletion of the type III radio emission is observed. We combine observations from the WAVES experiment on board the STEREO mission together with kinetic plasma simulations to study the extinction of type III radio emission resulting from the interaction between two electron beams. The remote observations enable to follow the electron beams in the interplanetary medium and show that the level of radiated radio waves is recovered after the beam crossing. The in situ observations of beam-driven Langmuir waves give evidence for Langmuir decay. The density fluctuations are extracted from in situ observations. The velocity of the beams is independently evaluated from in situ observations of decaying Langmuir waves and remote radio observations. The kinetic simulations show that the level of beam-driven Langmuir waves is reduced as the two beams cross. We show that the slow beam induced a strong reduction of the quasilinear relaxation of the fast beam, limiting the amplitude of the generated Langmuir waves. Moreover, in the case of two electron beams, the lack of Langmuir waves coherence reduces the efficiency of the Langmuir parametric decay. We thus conclude that the observed depletion of the type III radio 5 is independent of the radio emission mechanism, as long as it depends on the Langmuir amplitude and coherence.

Description: The solar minimum period between solar cycles 23 and 24 was the longest since the beginning of space-based measurements, and many manifestations of solar activity were unusually low. Thermospheric neutral density was about 30% lower than during the previous solar minimum, but changes in the ionosphere between the two solar minima are more controversial. Solar radiation, geomagnetic activity, and anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases, can all play a role in these changes. In this paper, we address the latter of these potential contributions, the degree to which secular change driven by greenhouse gases, primarily CO 2 , could be responsible for the observed changes. New 3D model simulations find a global mean density decrease at 400 km of 5.8% between the two recent solar minima, which is larger than earlier 1D model results, and in better agreement with observations. From these model simulations and from other observational work, we estimate that the contribution of secular change to global mean neutral density decrease between the two recent solar minima is less than ~6%. The contribution of secular change to the global average decrease of F-region ionosphere peak density ( N m F 2 ) and altitude ( h m F 2 ), near mid-day, is estimated to be 1.5% and 1.5 km, respectively. However, secular changes in the ionosphere exhibit large variations with local time, geographic location, and season. The mid-day change of N m F 2 seen in the model simulations ranged between +6% and -9%, and the change of h m F 2 ranged between +11 km and -11 km, depending on geographic location.

Description: In this paper we study the planetary magnetic disturbance during the magnetic storm occurring on 05 April 2010 associated with high speed solar wind stream due to a coronal hole following a CME. We separate the magnetic disturbance associated to the ionospheric disturbance dynamo (Ddyn) from the magnetic disturbance associated to the prompt penetration of magnetospheric electric field (DP2). This event exhibits different responses of ionospheric disturbance dynamo in the different longitude sectors (European-African, Asian and American). The strongest effect is observed in the European-African sector. The Ddyn disturbance reduces the amplitude of the daytime H-component at low latitudes during four consecutive days in agreement with the Blanc and Richmond's model of ionospheric disturbance dynamo. The amplitude of Ddyn decreased with time during the four days. We discuss its diverse worldwide effects. The observed signature of magnetic disturbance process in specific longitude sector is strongly dependent on which Earth's side faces the magnetic storms (i.e., there is a different response depending on which longitude sector is at noon when the SSC hits).Finally we determined an average period of 22 hours for Ddyn using wavelet analysis.

Description: Complex magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling mechanisms result in high latitude irregularities that are difficult to characterize using only Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) scintillation measurements. However, GNSS observations combined with physical parameters derived from modeling can be used to study the physics of these irregularities. We have developed a full three dimensional (3D) electromagnetic (EM) wave propagation model called “Satellite-beacon Ionospheric-scintillation Global Model ofthe upper Atmosphere" (SIGMA), to simulate GNSS scintillations. This model eliminates the most significant approximation made by the previous simulation approaches about the correlation length of the irregularity. Thus, for the first time, using SIGMA wecan accomplish scintillation simulations of significantly high fidelity. While the model is global, it is particularly applicable at high latitudes as it accounts for the complicated geometry of the magnetic field lines in these regions. Using SIGMA wesimulate the spatial and temporal variations in the GNSS signal phase and amplitude on the ground. In this paper, we present the model and results from a study to determine the sensitivity of the SIGMA outputs to different input parameters. We have deduced from our sensitivity study that the peak to peak (P2P) power gets most affected by the spectral index and line of sight (LOS) direction, while the P2P phase and standard deviation of the phase ( σ φ ) are more sensitive to the anisotropy of the irregularity. The sensitivity study of SIGMA narrows the parametric space to investigate when comparing the modeled results to the observations.

Description: The attenuation of VLF signals from lightning and ground-based VLF transmitters during transionospheric propagation has been the subject of recent interest, as discrepancies have been found between satellite data and model calculations. Previous modeling efforts, however, have not considered the self-absorption effect due to nonlinear heating and ionization in the lower ionosphere. A self-consistent model of ionospheric heating is presented here using a time-domain model of VLF wave propagation through the ionosphere. The model is able to estimate the attenuation of signals due to heating below ~100 km altitude. In this model, the ionospheric state is updated as the fields propagate, leading to changes in collision frequency and electron density, which in turn affect the wave propagation. We use this model for ground-based VLF transmitters at different frequencies, amplitudes, and latitudes (i.e., magnetic dip angle), and for lightning-generated sferics with different amplitudes, at different latitudes, and using a variety of ionospheric density profiles. We find that the inclusion of self-consistent heating causes a change in the transionospherically propagating wave amplitude that varies considerably with the source amplitude and other parameters. Typical values for the heating contribution to wave attenuation are 1-2 dB for VLF transmitters, but greater than 10 dB for large amplitude lightning discharges. An interesting effect is observed for VLF transmitters and low-amplitude lightning, where the signal is actually enhanced due to heating, rather than attenuated, in the direction propagating across the Earth's magnetic field.

Description: Structural equation modeling is used in statistical applications as both confirmatory and exploratory modeling: to test models and to suggest the most plausible explanation for a relationship between the independent and the dependent variables. Although structural analysis cannot prove causation, it can suggest the most plausible set of factors that influence the observed variable. We apply structural model analysis to the annual mean Arctic surface air temperature from 1900-2012 to find the most effective set of predictors, and to isolate the anthropogenic component of the recent Arctic warming by subtracting the effects of natural forcing and variability from the observed temperature. We find that anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols radiative forcing, and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation internal mode dominate Arctic temperature variability. Our structural model analysis of observational data suggests that about half of the recent Arctic warming of 0.64 K/decade may have anthropogenic causes.

Description: The present work has investigated the configuration of field-aligned currents (FACs) during a long period of radial interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) on 19 May 2002 by using high-resolution and precise vector magnetic field measurements of the CHAMP satellite. During the interest period IMF B y and B z are weakly positive and B x keeps pointing to the Earth for almost 10 hours. The geomagnetic indices Dst is about -40 nT and AE about 100 nT on average. The cross polar cap potential calculated from Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics and derived from DMSP observations have average values of 10-20 kV. Obvious hemispheric differences are shown in the configurations of FACs on the day and nightside. At the south pole FACs diminish in intensity to magnitudes of about 0.1  μA/m 2 , the plasma convection maintains two cell flow pattern, and the thermospheric density is quiet low. However, there are obvious activities in the northern cusp region. One pair of FACs with a downward leg toward the pole and upward leg on the equatorward side emerge in the northern cusp region, exhibiting opposite polarity to FACs typical for duskward IMF orientation. An obvious sunward plasma flow channel persists during the whole period. These ionospheric features might be manifestations of an efficient magnetic reconnection process occurring in the northern magnetospheric flanks at high latitude. The enhanced ionospheric current systems might deposit large amount of Joule heating into the thermosphere. The air densities in the cusp region get enhanced and subsequently propagate equatorward on the dayside. Although geomagnetic indices during the radial IMF indicate low level activity, the present study demonstrates that there are prevailing energy inputs from the magnetosphere to both the ionosphere and thermosphere in the northern polar cusp region.

Description: The interaction of planetary bodies with their surrounding magnetized plasma can often be described with the magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) equations, which are commonly solved by numerical models. For these models it is necessary to define physically correctboundary conditions for the plasma mass and energy density, the plasma velocity and the magnetic field. Many planetary bodies have electrically non-conductive surfaces, which do not allow electric current to penetrate their surfaces. Magnetic boundary conditions, which consider that the associated radial electric current at the planetary surface is zero are difficult to implement because they include the curl of the magnetic field. Here we derive new boundary conditions by a decomposition of the magnetic field in poloidal and toroidal parts. We find that the toroidal part of the magnetic field needs to vanish at the surface of the insulator. For the spherical harmonics coefficients of the poloidal part we derive a Cauchy boundary condition, whichalso matches a possible intrinsic field by including its Gauss coefficients. Thus we can additionally include planetary dynamo fields as well as time-variable induction fields within electrically conductive subsurface layers. We implement the non-conducting boundary condition in the MHD simulation code ZEUS-MP using spherical geometry and provide a numerical implementation in Fortran 90 as auxiliary-material on the JGR website. We apply it to a model for Ganymede's plasma environment. Our model also includes a consistent set of boundary conditions for the other MHD variables density, velocity and energy. With this model we can describe Galileo spacecraft observations in and around Ganymede's mini-magnetosphere very well.

Description: In recent years we have benefitted greatly from the first in-orbit multi-wavelength images of Saturn's polar atmosphere from the Cassini spacecraft. Specifically, images obtained from the Cassini UltraViolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) provide an excellent view of the planet's auroral emissions, which in turn give an account of the large-scale magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling and dynamics within the system. However, obtaining near-simultaneous views of the auroral regions with in situ measurements of magnetic field and plasma populations at high-latitudes is more difficult to routinely achieve. Here we present an unusual case, during Revolution 99 in January 2009, where UVIS observes the entire northern UV auroral oval during a two-hour interval while Cassini traverses the magnetic flux tubes connecting to the auroral regions near 21 LT, sampling the related magnetic field, particle, and radio and plasma wave signatures. The motion of the auroral oval evident from the UVIS images requires a careful interpretation of the associated latitudinally “oscillating” magnetic field and auroral field-aligned current signatures whereas previous interpretations have assumed a static current system. Concurrent observations of the auroral hiss (typically generated in regions of downward directed field-aligned current) support this revised interpretation of an oscillating current system. The nature of the motion of the auroral oval evident in the UVIS image sequence, and the simultaneous measured motion of the field-aligned currents (and related plasma boundary) in this interval, is shown to be related to the northern hemisphere magnetosphere oscillation phase. This is in agreement with previous observations of the auroral oval oscillatory motion.

Description: Important constraints on asthenospheric viscosity come primarily from modelling the glacial rebound of the past 20 kyr, but remain somewhat loose because of the intrinsic resolving power of these models. We obtain narrower bounds by building on the notion that the asthenosphere also controls the ability to change plate motions over Myr. We focus on the Pacific kinematic change at the time of the Hawaiian–Emperor bend event, which is linked to the coeval inception of subduction in the Western Pacific. We sample plausible asthenospheric viscosity and thickness values by requiring the rate at which torque varied to generate the observed kinematics consistent with the nature of subduction initiation. Uncertainties on the bend–event duration and the occurrence of Pacific hotspots drift do not hamper our results that suggest that the asthenosphere viscous response to vertical shear over kyr is consistent with that to horizontal shear over Myr.

Description: We have developed a technique by which to estimate the spatial distribution of plasmaspheric helium ions based on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) data obtained from the IMAGE satellite. The estimation is performed using a linear inversion method based on the Bayesian approach. The global imaging data from the IMAGE satellite enables us to estimate a global two-dimensional distribution of the helium ions in the plasmasphere. We applied this technique to a synthetic EUV image generated from a numerical model. This technique was confirmed to successfully reproduce the helium ion density that generated the synthetic EUV data. We also demonstrate how the proposed technique works for real data using two real EUV images.

Description: The branched structure of channel networks has a primary impact on the spatial distribution of elevation, water, and life across Earth's surface from the hillslope to the continental scale, and is also observed on other planets. However, the link between this dendritic multi-scale structure and the erosional processes that sculpt it has remained elusive for more than six decades. In fact, many topologic measures fail to distinguish natural networks from those generated by random walks. Here we show that a fundamental multi-scale topologic symmetry is ingrained into the structure of these networks and reflects the equal elevation drop spanned by flows that split at the drainage divide and meet again downslope. We demonstrate that this symmetry distinguishes random-walk networks from natural ones, captures the temporal evolution of these networks, and divulges information about the processes that shape them.

Description: A link between atmospheric variability in the Tropics independent of ENSO and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is found based on seasonal mean data for austral summer. Variations associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are removed usinga linear method and a Tropics Index (TI) is defined as the zonal average of the ENSO-removed 500 hPa geopotential height between 10° S and 10° N . Since the detrended TI shows no link to SST variability in the Tropics, it appears to be related to internal atmospheric variability. We find that the TI can explain about 40% variance of the SAM interannual variability and about 75% of the SAM long term trend between 1957/58 and 2001/02, where here the SAM includes the ENSO signal. Positive/negative values of the TI are associated with the positive/negative SAM. A possible link between the TI and global warming is noted.

Description: The phase and mixing state of atmospheric aerosols is a central determinant of their properties and, thus, their role in atmospheric cycling and climate. Particularly, the hygroscopic response of aerosol particles to relative humidity (RH) variation is a key aspect of their atmospheric life cycle and impacts. Here, we applied X-ray microspectroscopy under variable RH conditions to internally mixed aerosol particles from the Amazonian rainforest collected during periods with anthropogenic pollution. Upon hydration, we observed substantial and reproducible changes in particle microstructure, which appear as mainly driven by efflorescence and recrystallization of sulfate salts. Multiple solid and liquid phases were found to coexist, especially in intermediate humidity regimes. We show that X-ray microspectroscopy under variable RH is a valuable technique to analyze the hygroscopic response of individual ambient aerosol particles. Our initial results underline that RH changes can trigger strong particle restructuring, in agreement with previous studies on artificial aerosols.

Description: The impact of long-term sea surface temperature (SST) change on the atmospheric circulation is studied by comparing atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced with a spatially uniform SST increase and a structured SST increase. The structured SST increase is calculated from the response of an ensemble of coupled ocean-atmosphere models to increased CO 2 . Most of the impact of SST pattern change is confined to equatorial Indo-Pacific. However, the circulation change under the two types of SST forcing is similar over the rest of the tropics and almost identical in the extratropics, indicating that the pattern of future SST change has overall little impact on the response of the atmospheric circulation and, in turn, on the resulting changes in precipitation. The tropical similarity is argued to result from energetic constraints that weaken the atmospheric circulation, whereas the extratropical similarity likely results from the insensitivity of Rossby Wave generation to the changes in near-equatorial upper-level divergence. A comparison of the AGCM simulations with those from externally-forced coupled ocean-atmosphere models suggest that ocean coupling or the direct effect of radiative forcing has a larger impact on the projected changes in circulation and precipitation than the pattern of SST change over most regions.

Description: Future changes in orographic precipitation will have important consequences for societies and ecosystems near mountain ranges. Here we use a simple numerical model to evaluate the response of orographic precipitation to surface warming under idealized conditions representative of the strongest orographic storms. We find an upward shift in the pattern of condensation with warming, caused by larger fractional changes in condensation at low temperature and amplified warming aloft. As a result, the distribution of precipitation shifts downwind, causing larger fractional changes in precipitation on the lee slope than on the windward slope. Total precipitation is found to increase by a smaller fraction than near-surface water vapor, in contrast to expected changes in other types of extreme precipitation. Factors limiting the increase in orographic precipitation include the pattern of windward ascent, lee-side evaporation, and thermodynamic constraints on the change in condensation with temperature.

Description: We use cosmic radiation records (neutron monitor and the cosmogenic radionuclides, 10 Be and 14 C) as a proxy to compare the solar activity during the extended solar minimum 2006-9, with that during the Grand Solar Minima and Maxima that occurred between 1391-2010. The inferred cosmic ray intensities during the Spoerer, Maunder, and Dalton Grand Minima were significantly greater than those during 2006-9. The onset phases of the three Grand Minima extended over between two and five Schwabe (sunspot) cycles, the cosmic ray intensity at the Schwabe minima increasing from a value approximating that of 2006-9, to substantially higher values later in the Grand Minimum. The minimum estimated strengths of the heliospheric magnetic field near Earth during the Grand Minima were 2.4nT (Spoerer); 〈2.0nT(Maunder) and 2.6 nT (Dalton), compared to 3.9nT in 2009. We conclude that the periods of highest solar activity during the Maunder Minimum approximated those near the sunspot minima between 1954 and 1996. The average ratio of the maximum to minimum estimated HMF in the six Schwabe cycles in the Maunder Minimum is 1.54 (range 1.30-1.85) compared to 1.52 (1.31-1.63) for the modern epoch suggesting similar operation of the solar dynamo in both intervals. The onset phase of the Maunder Minimum extending over five Schwabe cycles, and the large increase in cosmic ray flux (and decrease in estimated heliospheric magnetic field), leads us to speculate that the magnetohydrodynamic amplification in the solar dynamo exhibits a relaxation time well in excess of the 11 year period of the Schwabe cycle.

Description: The effect of nutrient enrichment on mangrove sediment accretion and carbon accumulation rates is poorly understood. Here we quantify sediment accretion through radionuclide tracers to determine organic carbon (OC), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) accumulation rates during the previous 60 years in both a nutrient-enriched and a pristine mangrove forest within the same geomorphological region of south-eastern Brazil. The forest receiving high nutrient loads has accumulated OC, TN and TP at rates that are 4, 2 and 8 fold higher than those from the undisturbed mangrove. Organic carbon and TN stable isotopes (δ 13 C and δ 15 N) signal an increased presence of organic matter (OM) originating with either phytoplankton, benthic algae or another allochthonous source within the more rapidly-accumulated sediments of the impacted mangrove. This suggests that the accumulation rate of OM in eutrophic mangrove systems may be enhanced through the addition of autochthonous and allochthonous non-mangrove material.

Description: The temperature profile obtained from the space borne instrument ‘Sounding of Atmosphere by Broadband Emission Radiometry’ (SABER) instrument onboard ‘Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics’ (TIMED) shows a triple layered mesospheric inversion event on the night of 23 September 2011, when there is an overpass near the low-latitude sites Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) and Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E). The three mesospheric inversion layers (MIL) are formed in the height region around ~70 km (lower), ~80 km (middle) and ~90 km (upper) with amplitudes ~11 K, ~44 K, and ~109 K and thickness of 3.4 km, 4.9 km and 6.6 km respectively. The formation of the lower and middle MILs can only be observed in the Rayleigh lidar temperature profiles over Gadanki due to upper height limitation of the system. Nearly all the dominant causative mechanisms are examined for the occurrence of the MIL event. The lower MIL at ~70 km is inferred to be due to planetary wave dissipation, as there is a sudden decrease of planetary wave activity above 70 km. Further, it is demonstrated that the middle MIL at ~80 km is due to the turbulence generated by gravity wave breaking which is in turn due to gravity wave–semi-diurnal tidal interaction, though the height of the middle MIL descends at the rate of ~1 km/h, which is nearly the vertical phase speed of diurnal tide, whereas the upper MIL at above 90 km is due to the large chemical heating rate (~45 K/day) generated by the dominant exothermic reaction O + O + M → O 2  + M.

Description: In this paper, we analyze radar observations of E x B drift and plasma irregularities, ionosonde observations of E- and F-layer parameters including spread F, and magnetic field observations made from Indian low latitudes linked with the 2009 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. E x B drift variations presented here are the first of their kind from the Indian sector as far as the effect of SSW is concerned. Difference of magnetic fields observed from the equator and low latitude (∆H) and E x B drift show linear relation and both show remarkably large positive values in the morning and negative values in the afternoon exhibiting semidiurnal behavior. Remarkable changing patterns in the critical frequency of F 2 layer (f o F 2 ) and F 3 layer (f o F 3 ) were observed after the occurrence of SSW. Large variations with quasi-16-day periodicity were observed in ∆H, f o F 2 and f o F 3. Both semidiurnal and quasi-16-day wave modulation observed after the 2009 SSW event are consistent with those reported earlier. We also noted quasi-6 day variations in ∆H and f o F 2 soon after the SSW commencement, not much reported before. During the counter-electrojet events linked with the SSW event, while equatorial E s (E sq ) disappeared as expected, there were no blanketing E s (E sb ), a finding not reported and discussed earlier. E sb was also not formed at the off-equatorial location, indicating the absence of required vertical wind shear, but E region plasma irregularities were observed by the ionosonde and radar with a close relationship between the two. Weak F region irregularities were observed in the post-midnight hours and case studies suggest the possible role of SSW related background electric field in the manifestation of post-midnight F region irregularities.

Description: The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) launches and maintains a network of satellites to monitor the meteorological, oceanographic, and solar-terrestrial physics environments. In the past decade, geomagnetic field modelers have focused much attention on magnetic measurements from missions such as CHAMP, Ørsted and SAC-C. With the completion of the CHAMP mission in 2010, there has been a multi-year gap in satellite-based vector magnetic field measurements available for main field modeling. In this study, we calibrate the Special Sensor Magnetometer (SSM) instrument onboard DMSP to create a dataset suitable for main field modeling. These vector field measurements are calibrated to compute instrument timing shifts, scale factors, offsets, and non-orthogonality angles of the fluxgate magnetometer cores. Euler angles are then computed to determine the orientation of the vector magnetometer with respect to a local coordinate system. We fit a degree 15 main field model to the dataset and compare with the World Magnetic Model (WMM) and Ørsted scalar measurements. We call this model DMSP-MAG-1 and its coefficients and software are available for download at http://geomag.org/models/dmsp.html . Our results indicate that the DMSP dataset will be a valuable source for main field modeling for the years between CHAMP and the recently launched Swarm mission.

Description: Aqua-planet experiments were conducted to investigate storm-track cloud change due to sea surface temperature (SST) rise. 14 km-mesh global non-hydrostatic model was employed with an explicit cloud microphysical process, and the model output data were composited to the cyclone center. Both the column-integrated liquid and ice cloud contents are significantly increased around the cyclone center due to the SST rise. The occurrence of low-level liquid clouds becomes more frequent not only near the cyclone center, but also for all of the higher latitudes, which cannot be seen in low-resolution models. This as well as thicker liquid clouds enhances shortwave cooling. Upper-level ice clouds occur more frequently on the east side of the cyclone center, and they partly offset the enhanced shortwave cooling through longwave warming. These results may imply an importance of the cloud-scale process with cloud microphysics on the storm-track clouds and their radiative forcing.

Description: The dynamics of flat-subduction, particularly the interaction between a flat slab and the overriding plate, are poorly understood. Here we study the (seismically) anisotropic properties and deformational regime of the mantle directly above the Peruvian flat-slab. We analyze shear wave splitting from 370 local S events at 49 stations across southern Peru. We find that the mantle above the flat slab appears to be anisotropic, with modest average delay times (~0.28 s) that are consistent with ~4% anisotropy in a ~30 km thick mantle layer. The most likely mechanism is the lattice preferred orientation (LPO) of olivine, which suggests that the observed splitting pattern preserves information about the mantle deformation. We observe a pronounced change in anisotropy along strike, with predominately trench-parallel fast directions in the north and more variable orientations in the south, which we attribute to the ongoing migration of the Nazca Ridge through the flat-slab system.

Description: We have developed a new algorithm that improves near-field tsunami forecasting based on offshore tsunami data soon after an earthquake by incorporating real-time onshore Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data. In our algorithm, called tFISH/RAPiD, the initial sea-surface height distribution estimated from rapidly acquired GNSS data provides robust finite source size information that is incorporated into an offshore tsunami data inversion for reliable tsunami predictions along the near-field coast. Our algorithm can be applicable to arbitrary types of large tsunamigenic earthquakes when the static displacements are substantial enough to be detected at onshore GNSS stations. We retrospectively applied our algorithm to the 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku earthquake and demonstrated its ability to provide information about disastrous tsunamis approaching wide areas along the near-field coast. Furthermore, arrival times and wave heights of large-amplitude, short-period tsunamis affecting specific near-field coasts can be predicted at least 5 minutes before the actual tsunami arrivals.

Description: The Labrador Sea is a region of climatic importance as a result of the occurrence of oceanic wintertime convection, a process that is integral to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This process requires large air-sea heat fluxes that result in a loss of surface buoyancy, triggering convective overturning of the water column. The Labrador Sea wintertime turbulent heat flux maximum is situated downstream of the ice edge, a location previously thought to be causal. Here we show that there is considerable similarity in the characteristics of the regional mean atmospheric circulation and high heat flux events over the Labrador Sea during early-winter, when the ice is situated to the north, and mid-winter, when it is near the region of maximum heat loss. This suggests that other factors, including the topography of the nearby upstream and downstream landmasses, contribute to the location of the heat flux maximum.

Description: Whereas millennial to sub-millennial climate variability has been identified during the current interglacial period, past interglacial variability features remain poorly explored because of lacking data at sufficient temporal resolutions. Here, we present new deuterium data from the EPICA Dome C ice core, documenting at decadal resolution temperature changes occurring over the East Antarctic plateau during the warmer-than-today last interglacial. Expanding previous evidence of instabilities during the last interglacial, multi-centennial sub-events are identified and labelled for the first time in a past interglacial context. A variance analysis further reveals two major climatic features. First, an increase in variability is detected prior to the glacial inception, as already observed at the end of Marine Isotopic Stage 11 in the same core. Second, the overall variance level is systematically higher during the last interglacial than during the current one, suggesting that a warmer East Antarctic climate may also be more variable.

Description: We analyze the carbon–climate feedback in eight Earth System Models (ESMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We focus on tropical land carbon change and find decreases (−31.02 to −169.32 GtC K −1 ), indicating tropical ecosystems will release carbon as temperature warms, thus contributing to a positive feedback identified in earlier studies. We further investigate the relationship between tropical land carbon change and sensitivity of historical atmospheric CO 2 growth rate to tropical temperature variability, and find a weak linear relationship. This sensitivity for most models is stronger than observed. We further use this " emergent constraint" [ Cox et al. , 2013] to constrain uncertainties in model-projected future carbon–climate changes, and find little effect in narrowing the model-spread, but the mean sensitivity is slightly smaller. This contrasts with earlier C 4 MIP results, highlighting the challenge in constraining future projections by modern observations and necessity for evaluating such relationships continuously.

Description: At the interannual to decadal timescale, the changes in the Earth rotation rate are linked with the El-Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena through changes in the Atmospheric Angular Momentum. As climatic studies demonstrate that there were two types of El-Niño events, namely Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) events, we investigate how each of them affect the Atmospheric Angular Momentum. We show in particular that EP events are associated with stronger variations of the Atmospheric Angular Momentum and length-of-day. We explain this difference by the stronger pressure gradient over the major mountain ranges, due to a stronger and more efficiently localized pressure dipole over the Pacific Ocean in the case of EP events.

Description: Typically, sub-seasonal to intra-annual climate forecasts are based on ensemble mean (EM) predictions. The EM prediction provides only a part of the information available from the ensemble forecast. Here we test the null hypothesis that the observations are randomly distributed about the EM predictions using a new metric that quantifies the distance between the EM predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and the observations represented by CFSv2 Reanalysis. The null hypothesis cannot be rejected in this study. Hence, we argue that the higher order statistics such as ensemble standard deviation are also needed to describe the forecast. We also show that removal of systematic errors that are a function of the forecast initialization month and lead-time is a necessary pre-processing step. Finally, we show that CFSv2 provides useful ensemble climate forecasts from zero to nine months lead-time in several regions.

Description: Subsurface phreatomagmatic explosions can result from the interaction of ascending magma with groundwater. Experiments over a wide range of energies show that for a given energy there is a depth below which an explosion will be contained within the subsurface (not erupt), and there is a corresponding shallower depth that will optimize ejecta dispersal. We combine these relationships with constraints on the energies of phreatomagmatic explosions at maar-diatreme volcanoes, and show that most eruptions are likely sourced by explosions in the uppermost ~200 m, and even shallower ones (〈100 m) are likely to dominate deposition onto tephra rings. Most explosions below ~200 m will not erupt, but contribute to formation of, and to the vertical mixing of materials within, a diatreme (vent structure), with only rare very high energy explosions between ~200 – 500 m erupting. Similar constraints likely apply at other volcanoes that experience phreatomagmatic explosions.

Description: We present the first proxy record of sea ice area (SIA) in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, from a 130-year coastal ice core record. High-resolution deuterium excess data show prevailing stable SIA from the 1880 s until the 1950s, a 2–5% reduction from the mid-1950s to the early-1990s, and a 5% increase after 1993. Additional support for this reconstruction is derived from ice core methanesulphonic acid (MSA) concentrations and whaling records. While SIA has continued to decline around much of the West Antarctic coastline since the 1950s, concurrent with increasing air and ocean temperatures, the underlying trend is masked in the Ross Sea by a switch to positive SIA anomalies since the early-1990s. This increase is associated with a strengthening of southerly winds and the enhanced northwards advection of sea ice.

Description: Nearly a decade ago, it was recognized that “amphidrome” is not a tide-only feature. Although more than a dozen annual amphidromes have been reported for several oceanic/atmospheric variables, little has been done so far to identify non-tidal amphidromes under the sea surface. In this study, analysis of annual phase properties of sea temperature at different depths has been conducted using Argo data. As a result, four annual amphidromic columns of sea temperature (AACST) with different thicknesses have been identified across the tropical oceans. The concept of “amphidromic column” is defined for the first time as the water column where an amphidromic point extends vertically for a given depth in the ocean. Given the fact that it is coupled with the lower limit of the oceanic mixed layer and provides a direct measure of the solar penetration, the determination of AACST has many potential implications ranging from a more precise monitoring of the interannual to multidecadal temperature changes under global warming, to a better understanding of the thermal-dynamical, biological, and fishery processes in the tropical oceans.

Description: [1]  Climate warming fosters an earlier spring green-up that may bring potential benefits to agricultural systems. However, advances in green-up timing may leave early-stage vegetation growth vulnerable cold damage when hard freezes follow green-up resulting in a false spring. Spatiotemporal patterns of green-up dates, last spring freezes, and false springs were examined across the contiguous United States from 1920 to 2013. Results indicate widespread earlier green-up and last spring freeze dates over the period. Observed changes in these dates were asymmetric with the last spring freeze date advancing to earlier in the year relative to green-up date. Although regionally variable, these changes resulted in a reduction in false springs, notably over the past 20 years, except across the intermountain western United States where the advance in green-up timing outpaced that of the last spring freeze. A sensitivity experiment shows that observed decreases in false springs are consistent with a warming climate.

Description: [1]  A distinct class of El Niño events with extreme magnitude (termed “super El Niño” events in this study) is identified after removing decadal variation. These events occurred in 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1997/98. They are distinguished not only by their size but also by associated features such as a Southern Hemispheric transverse circulation that is not similarly robust in other El Niño events. This transverse circulation is characterized by a low-level equatorward flow, which spins off from a high sea-level-pressure anomaly around Australia and then merges into the deep convection anomalies over the central Pacific, and by a upper-level southward divergent flow, which branches off from the convection center and connects to the subsidence of the Australia high. It is suggested that this transverse cell, peaking in boreal summer, serves as an effective booster during the developing stage of a super El Niño by intensifying tropical Pacific low-level westerly winds.

Description: [1]  This study evaluates and compares tropical cyclones (TCs) in state-of-the-art reanalysis datasets including: the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55); Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25); ECMWF Reanalysis-40 (ERA-40); Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim); NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR); and NASA's Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA). Most of the reanalyses reproduce a reasonable global spatial distribution of observed TCs and temporal interannual variation of total TC frequency.Of the six reanalysis datasets, JRA-55 appears to be the best in terms of: the highest skill for spatial and temporal distribution of TC frequency of occurrence; highest TC hitting rate, lower false-alarm rate; reasonable TC structure in terms of the relationship between maximum surface wind speed and sea level pressure; and higher correlation coefficients for interannual variations of TC frequency. These results also suggest that the finest resolution reanalysis datasets, like MERRA, are not always the best in terms of TC climatology.

Description: [1]  Jupiter's large scale size and rapid planetary rotation period combine to produce the strong centrifugal force responsible for many unique properties of its magnetosphere. It was previously proposed that this centrifugal force and non-adiabatic field line stretching could cause the observed dawn-dusk asymmetry of Jupiter's plasma sheet, which is thickest near dusk. As flux tubes rotate and stretch between noon and dusk, particles bouncing along the field gain parallel energy and create pressure anisotropy. Because bounce times can be long compared with the outward expansion timescale, particles may respond non-adiabatically, and the resulting pressure anisotropy can drive the plasma sheet to instability. We used a large-scale kinetic (LSK) simulation to follow a collection of rotating particles as they move in a time-varying, rotating magnetic field designed to represent flux tube expansion in Jupiter's magnetosphere. The analysis quantifies the response of trapped particles by characterizing the pressure anisotropy and energy changes. We compare results of non-adiabatic and adiabatic outward expansion, and find that the non-adiabatic case leads to a large pitch angle anisotropy and higher total energy than for adiabatic expansion. Although the calculation was not handled fully self-consistently, the results support the proposition that plasma pressure changes lead to changes in the magnetic field structure with local time. Our findings are consistent with the idea that non-adiabatic effects in Jupiter's magnetosphere contribute to field dipolarization and the observed plasma sheet thickening between noon and dusk.

Description: [1]  The IMAGE network magnetic measurements during the period 1995-2009 (covering the whole of solar cycle 23) are used to characterize the annual variations in the westward electrojet. The results suggest that the annual variations in different local time sector are quite different due to the different sources. In the MLT-sector 2200-0100, the annual variations with maxima in winter suggest they are caused by the combined effects of the convective electric field and the conductivity associated with particle precipitation. Furthermore, the conductivity seems to play a more important role in the MLT-sector ~2200-2320, while the convective electric field appears to be more important in the MLT-sector ~2320-0100. In the MLT-sector 0300-0600, the annual variations with maxima in summer suggest they are caused by solar EUV conductivity effect and the equinoctial effect, which work in two fundamentally different ways. The solar EUV conductivity effect works by increasing ionospheric conductivity and enhancing the westward electrojet in summer, while the equinoctial effect works by decreasing solar wind-magnetosphere coupling efficiency and weakening the westward electrojet in winter. In the MLT-sector 0100-0300, the annual variations are relatively weak, and can be attributed to the combined effects of annual variations caused by all the previously mentioned effects. In addition, we find that a significant annual variation in substorm occurrence rate, mainly occurring in the premidnight region, is quite similar to that in the westward electrojet. We suggest that elevated solar wind driving during the winter months contributes to higher substorm occurrence in winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

Description: No abstract is available for this article.

Description: Chorus waves play an important role in energetic electron dynamics in the inner magnetosphere. In this work, we present a new hybrid code, DAWN, to simulate the generation of chorus waves. The DAWN code is unique in that it models cold electrons using linearized fluid equations and hot electrons using particle-in-cell techniques. The simplified fluid equations can be solved with robust and simple algorithms. We demonstrate that discrete chorus elements can be generated using the code. Waveforms of the generated element show amplitude modulation or “subpackets”, and the frequency sweep rate of the generated element is found to be consistent with that of observed chorus waves. Using the DAWN code, we then investigate the variation of wave intensity with respect to linear growth rates on the equatorial plane. Previous observations showed that the change in linear growth rates of whistler waves modulated by external processes such as density modulations is usually small , while the variation of the wave intensity is large . Using a chosen set of background plasma parameters, we demonstrate that a small change in linear growth rates can lead to significant variation of wave intensity only in the transition from the broadband whistler wave generation regime to the chorus wave generation regime. Our results demonstrate the importance of including nonlinear dynamics of chorus generation in understanding the whistler wave intensity modulation process in the inner magnetosphere.

Description: We report the observation of echo extreme horizontal drift speed (EEHS, ≥ 300 m s -1 ) during polar mesospheric (80-90 km) summer echoes (PMSEs) by the VHF (52-MHz) radar at Esrange, Sweden, in years of 2006 and 2008. The EEHS occur in PMSEs as correlated with high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs), observed at least once in 12-17 % of all hours of observation for the two summers. The EEHS rate peaks occur either during high solar wind speed in the early part of the PMSE season or during the arrival of interplanetary corotating interaction regions (CIRs) followed by peaks in PMSE occurrence rate after 1-4 days, in the latter part of the 2006 summer. The cause of EEHS rate peaks is likely under the competition between the interval of the CIR and HSS passage over the magnetosphere. A candidate process in producing EEHS is suggested to be localized strong electric field, which is caused by solar wind energy transfer from the interaction of CIR and HSS with the magnetosphere in a sequential manner. We suggest that EEHS are created by strong electric field, estimated as 〉 10-30 V m -1 at 85 km altitude, exceeding the mesospheric breakdown threshold field.

Description: We report on a recent magnetotelluric (MT) survey across the Manda Hararo magmatic segment (MHMS) within the Tendaho graben in the Afar Depression in north eastern Ethiopia. Twenty-two broadband MT sites with ~ 1 km station spacing were deployed along a profile with the recorded data covering a period range from 0.003 s to 1000 s. A two dimensional (2D) resistivity model reveals an upper crustal fracture zone (fault) and partial melt with resistivity of 1-10 Ω m at a depth of 〉 1 km. The partial melt has a maximum horizontal width of 15 km and extends to a depth of 15 km within the Afar Stratoid Series basalts. We estimate a melt fraction of about 13% based on geochemical and borehole data, and bulk resistivity from the 2D MT inversion model. The interpreted upper crustal partial melt may have been formed by either a magma intrusion from mantle sources or a large volume of continental crust that has been fluxed by a small amount of mantle melt and heat. Within the MHMS and Tendaho graben, a magma intrusion is a plausible explanation for the upper crustal conductor. The inferred presence of a conductive fracture zone or fault with hydrothermal fluid and shallow heat sourcing magma reservoir also make the Tendaho graben a promising prospect for the development of conventional hydrothermal geothermal energy.

Description: Multiple spectral and statistical analyses of a 700-year long temporal record of groundwater recharge from the dry lands, Badain Jaran Desert (Inner Mongolia) of North West China reveal a stationary harmonic cycle at ~200 ± 20 year. Interestingly, the underlying periodicity in groundwater recharge fluctuations is similar to those of solar induced climate cycle “Suess wiggles” and appears to be coherent with phases of the climate fluctuations and solar cycles. Matching periodicity of groundwater recharge rates and solar and climate cycles renders a strong impression that solar induced climate signals may act as a critical amplifier for driving the underlying hydrographic cycle through the common coupling of long-term Sun-climate groundwater linkages.

Description: We have developed a technique for estimating the temporal evolution of the plasmaspheric helium ion density based on a sequence of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) data obtained from the IMAGE satellite. In the proposed technique, the estimation is obtained by incorporating EUV images from IMAGE into a two-dimensional fluid model of the plasmasphere using a data assimilation approach based on the ensemble transform Kalman filter. Since the motion and the spatial structure of the helium plasmasphere is strongly controlled by the electric field in the inner magnetosphere, the electric field around the plasmapause can also be estimated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter. We performed an experiment using synthetic images that were generated from the same numerical model under a certain condition. It was confirmed that the condition that generated the synthetic images was successfully reproduced. We also present some results obtained using real EUV imaging data. Finally, we discuss the possibility of estimating the density profile along a magnetic field line. Since each EUV image was taken from a different direction due to the motion of the IMAGE satellite, we could obtain the information on the density profile along a field line by combining multiple images.

Description: Geodetic measurements following the 23 October 2011, Mw = 7.2 Van (E. Turkey) Earthquake reveal that a fault splay on the footwall block of the coseismic thrust fault was reactivated and slipped aseismically for more than 1.5 years following the earthquake. Although long-lasting aseismic slip on coseismic ruptures has been documented following many large earthquakes, long-lasting, triggered slip on neighboring faults that did not rupture during the earthquake has not been reported previously. Elastic dislocation and Coulomb stress modeling indicate that the postseismic deformation can be adequately explained by shallow slip on both the coseismic and splay fault, and is likely driven mostly by coseismic stress changes. Thus the slip deficit on the shallow section of the coseismic fault indicated by InSAR-based models has been partially filled by aseismic slip, suggesting a lower likelihood for a large earthquake on the shallow section of the Van fault than suggested by previous studies.

Description: Air-sea interaction processes that modify the sea surface temperature (SST) front in the Agulhas Return Current region (between 40°E and 55°E) during austral summer and winter are examined using observational data and output from a high-resolution ocean general circulation model. While the air-sea heat flux frontal variations tend to relax the SST front, the frontolysis is amplified (damped) in summer (winter) when frontal variations in the mixed layer depth (MLD) are incorporated. The stronger (weaker) frontolysis associated with the MLD variations is due to the fact that the warming (cooling) by the surface heat flux is amplified south of the front where the MLD is shallower, and is reduced north of the front where the MLD is deeper. This study is the first to show that the MLD variations play an important role in affecting the strength of the SST front.

Description: Small-scale structure of the plasma convection and electron content within the subauroral polarization stream (SAPS) is investigated. We present ionospheric observations during the main phase of the geomagnetic storm on March 17, 2013, during which a sequence of intense, highly localized, and fast-moving electric field (EF) structures within SAPS was observed by the SuperDARN Christmas Valley West radar (CVW). The CVW EF measurements at 60-s resolution are analyzed in context of coincident GPS measurements of the total electron content (TEC) at 30-s resolution. The strong and narrow feature of the subauroral ion drift (SAID) was observed poleward of the TEC trough, with a TEC enhancement (peak) seen in the SAPS (SAID) region. The SAPS wave activity commenced ~2 hours (15 min) after first appearance of SAPS (SAID). The SAPS structures appeared near the poleward edge of the trough, propagated westward, and merged with SAID near TEC peak. The propagation velocity was comparable with convection velocity within each EF structure. The SAPS TEC exhibited a general decrease towards the end of the period. On a smaller time scale, TEC exhibited a small but appreciable decrease within EF structures. The wavelet spectra of EF and TEC showed similar variations, with wave period of ~5-min period near onset and increasing to 8–10 min towards the end of the period with significant wave activity. A scenario is discussed, in which the SAPS wave activity may modify the ionospheric conductance and TEC at small scales, with large-scale magnetosphere-ionosphere feedback acting to continuously deplete TEC where/when such activity does not occur.

Description: The intense inner radiation belt at Jupiter (〉50 MeV at 1.5 R J ) is generally accepted to be created by radial diffusion of electrons from further away from the planet. However, this requires a source with energies that exceed1 MeV outside the orbit of the moon Io at 5.9 R J , which has never been explained satisfactorily. Here we test the hypothesis that this source population could be formed from a very soft energy spectrum, by particle injection processes and resonant electron acceleration via whistler mode chorus waves. We use the BAS Radiation Belt Model to calculate the change in the electron flux between 6.5 and 15 R J ; these are the first simulations at Jupiter combining wave particle interactions and radial diffusion. The resulting electron flux at 100 keV and 1 MeV lies very close to the Galileo Interim Radiation Electron model spectrum after 1 and 10 days respectively. The primary driver for the increase in the flux is cyclotron resonant acceleration by chorus waves. A peak in phase space density forms such that inside L ≈ 9 radial diffusion transports electrons towards Jupiter, but outside L ≈ 9 radial diffusion acts away from the planet. The results are insensitiveto the softness of the initial energy spectrum but do depend on the value of the flux at the minimum energy boundary. We conclude by suggesting that the source population for the inner radiation belt at Jupiter could indeed be formed by wave-particle interactions.

Description: Enceladus’ southern plume is one of the major discoveries of the Cassini mission. The water neutrals and ice crystals ejected by the cryovolcanic activity populate Saturn's E-ring and the neutral torus, and they interact with the plasma environment of Saturn's magnetosphere. The plasma neutrality inside Enceladus’ plume has been shown by the Langmuir probe measurement to be modified by the presence of the dust particles. We present an independent method of determining the electron density inside the plume. Sometimes after dust impacts, plasma oscillations (ringing) were detected by the Cassini Radio and Plasma Wave Science (RPWS) instrument. The frequencies of these oscillations have been shown to be consistent with the local plasma frequency, thus providing a measurement of the local electron density.

Description: The study of complexity in two aspects of the magnetic activity in the Sun-Earth system is presented. We compare the temporal evolution of the magnetic fluctuations in the Earth's magnetosphere, and the spatial distribution of the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, by calculating fractal dimensions from the data. It is found that the fractal dimension of the D st data decreases during magnetic storm states, and is well correlated with other indexes of solar activity, such as the solar flare and coronal indexes. This correlation holds for individual storms, full year data, and the complete 23rd solar cycle. The fractal dimension from solar magnetogram data also correlates well with both the D st index and solar flare index, although the correlation is much more clear at the larger temporal scale of the 23rd solar cycle, showing a clear increase around solar maximum.

Description: The variations of the 3-D coronal magnetic fields associated with the X3.4-class flare of active region 10930 are studied in this paper. The coronal magnetic field data are reconstructed from the photospheric vector magnetograms obtained by the Hinode satellite and using the nonlinear force-free field extrapolation method developed in our previous work (He et al., 2011). The 3-D force-free factor α , 3-D current density, and 3-D magnetic energy density are employed to analyze the coronal data. The distributions of α and current density reveal a prominent magnetic connectivity with strong negative α values and strong current density before the flare. This magnetic connectivity extends along the main polarity inversionline and, is found to be totally broken after the flare. The distribution variation of magnetic energy density reveals the re-distribution of magnetic energy before and after the flare. In the lower space of the modeling volume the increase of magnetic energy dominates, and in the higher space the decrease of energy dominates. The comparison with the flare onset imaging observation exhibits that the breaking site of the magnetic connectivity and site with the highest values of energy density increase coincide with the location of flare initial eruption. We conclude that a cramped positive α region appearing in the photosphere causes the breaking of the magnetic connectivity. A scenario for flare initial eruption is proposed in which the Lorentz force acting on the isolated electric current at the magnetic connectivity breaking site lifts the associated plasmas and causes the initial ejection.

Description: Using a recent magnetohydrodynamic simulation of magnetotail dynamics we further investigate the build-up and evolution of the substorm current wedge (SCW), resulting from flow bursts generated by near-tail reconnection. Each flow burst generates an individual current wedge, which includes the reduction of cross-tail current and the diversion to region 1 (R1) type field-aligned currents (earthward on the dawn and tailward on the dusk side), connecting the tail with the ionosphere. Multiple flow bursts generate initially multiple SCW patterns, which at later times combine to a wider single SCW pattern. The standard SCW model is modified by the addition of several current loops, related to particular magnetic field changes: the increase of B z in a local equatorial region (“dipolarizationÓ), the decrease of | B x | away from the equator (“current disruptionÓ), and increases in | B y | resulting from azimuthally deflected flows. The associated loop currents are found to be of similar magnitude, 0.1-0.3 MA. The combined effect requires the addition of region 2 (R2) type currents closing in the near tail through dawnward currents but also connecting radially with the R1 currents. The current closure at the inner boundary, taken as a crude proxy of an idealized ionosphere, demonstrates westward currents as postulated in the original SCW picture as well as North-South currents connecting R1 and R2 type currents, which were larger than the westward currents by a factor of almost 2. However, this result should be applied with caution to the ionosphere because of our neglect of finite resistance and Hall effects.

Description: The Gravity Recovery And Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission is providing unprecedentedly high-resolution gravity data. The gravity signal in relation to topography decreases from 100 km to 30 km wavelength, equivalent to a uniform crustal density of 2450 kg/m 3 that is 100 kg/m 3 smaller than the density required at 100 km. To explain such frequency-dependent behavior, we introduce rock compaction models under lithostatic pressure that yield radially-stratified porosity (and thus density) and examine the depth extent of porosity. Our modeling and analysis support the assertion that the crustal density must vary from surface to deep crust by up to 500 kg/m 3 . We found that the surface density of megaregolith is around 2400 kg/m 3 with an initial porosity of 10–20%, and this porosity is eliminated at 10–20 km depth due to lithostatic overburden pressure. Our stratified density models provide improved fits to both GRAIL primary and extended mission data.

Description: [1]  Understanding the three-dimensional (3D) dynamics of subduction-collision systems is a longstanding challenge in geodynamics. We investigate the impact of slab detachment in collision systems that are subjected to along-trench variations. High resolution thermo-mechanical numerical models, encompassing experimentally-derived flow laws and a pseudo free surface, are employed to unravel lithospheric and topographic evolutions. Firstly, we consider coeval subduction of adjacent continental and oceanic lithospheres (SCO). This configuration yields to two-stage slab detachment during collision, topographic buildup and extrusion, variable along-trench convergence rates and associated trench deformation. The second setting considers a convergent margin, which is laterally limited by a transform boundary (STB). Such collisional system is affected by a single slab detachment, little trench deformation and moderately confined upper plate topography. The effect of initial thermal slab age on SCO and STB models are explored. Similarities with natural analogues along the Arabia-Eurasia collision are discussed.

Description: We report ARTEMIS dual-probe observations of two events in the terrestrial magnetotail lobe, both characterized by upward-moving heavy ions of lunar origin at one of the probes that is magnetically connected with the dayside lunar surface. By treating magnetic measurements at the other probe as the unperturbed lobe fields, we obtain background-subtracted magnetic perturbations (most significantly in B z ) when the first probe moved in the dawn-dusk direction across flux tubes magnetically connected to the Moon. These magnetic perturbations indicate the presence of field-aligned current above the lunar surface. By examining possible carriers of field-aligned current, we find that lunar heavy ions and accompanying electrons both contribute considerably to the current. Observations of the field-aligned current also suggest that the charging process at the dayside lunar surface and the associated lobe plasma environment, which have traditionally been viewed as a one-dimensional current balance problem, are actually more complicated. These observations give the first insights into how heavy ions affect the lunar dayside environment in terms of multi-species plasma dynamics.

Description: The solution of electric fields and currents in a height–resolved ionosphere is traditionally solved as an elliptic equation with Dirichlet or Neumann boundary condition in which the magnetosphere is represented as an unresponsive (prescribed) voltage generator or current source. In this paper we derive an alternative boundary condition based upon Alfvén waves in which only the Alfvén wave from the magnetosphere that is incident upon the ionosphere ( E xi ) is prescribed. For a uniform magnetosphere the new boundary condition reduces to ∂ φ /∂ z  =  (∂ 2 φ /∂ x 2  + 2∂ E xi /∂ x )/( μ 0 V A σ || ) and is evaluated at the magnetosphere–ionosphere interface. The resulting solution is interpreted as a responsive magnetosphere and establishes a key stage in the full, self-consistent and non-linear coupling of the magnetosphere and ionosphere.

Description: No abstract is available for this article.

Description: . Sub-ionospheric radio-wave data from an AARDDVARK receiver located in Churchill, Canada, is analysed to determine the characteristics of electron precipitation into the atmosphere over the range 3 〈  L  〈 7. The study advances previous work by combining signals from two US transmitters from 20 July – 20 August 2010, allowing error estimates of derived electron precipitation fluxes to be calculated, including the application of time-varying electron energy spectral gradients. Electron precipitation observations from the NOAA POES satellites, and a ground-based riometer provide inter-comparison, and context, for the AARDDVARK measurements. AARDDVARK radiowave propagation data showed responses suggesting energetic electron precipitation from the outer radiation belt starting 27 July 2010, and lasting ~20 days. The uncertainly in 〉30 keV precipitation flux determined by the AARDDVARK technique was found to be ±10%. Peak 〉30 keV precipitation fluxes of AARDDVARK-derived precipitation flux during the main- and recovery-phase of the largest geomagnetic storm, that started on 04 August 2010, were 〉10 5 el. cm -2  s -1  sr -1 . The largest fluxes observed by AARDDVARK occurred on the dayside, and were delayed by several days from the start of the geomagnetic disturbance. During the main phase of the disturbances nightside fluxes were dominant. Significant differences in flux estimates between POES, AARDDVARK and the riometer were found after the main phase of the largest disturbance, with evidence provided to suggest that 〉700 keV electron precipitation was occurring. Currently the presence of such relativistic electron precipitation introduces some uncertainty in the analysis of AARDDVARK data, given the assumption of a power-law electron precipitation spectrum.

Description: Helios spacecraft data excluding shocks, ejecta and low cadence plasma intervals are averaged into hour long intervals and binned by heliocentric distance. In each distance bin, relative classes of fluctuation normalized cross-helicity and total energy are made with a further refinement of each of these classes according to the relative proton radial component of temperature. The relative classes of temperature itself are also examined. All temperatures in each class are fitted by a power law as a function of heliocentric distance to determine the power law index. The difference between this index and the adiabatic index for isotropic plasma can be the first-order indicator of heat addition to the plasma. Relative total energy has temperature indices and behaviors that can be consistent with heat addition from a turbulent energy cascade. Relative cross helicity also shows indices that can support heat addition, but the results are inconclusive on heat addition, especially at high cross-helicity. A detailed knowledge of the thermal anisotropy, at least, is required in the case of high cross-helicity.

Description: The sunspot numbers and polar faculae are analyzed to demonstrate that the current solar activity is close to the Grand minimum. Notably protracted Cycle 23 is found to be similar to the cycles on the eve of the Dalton and Gleissberg–Gnevyshev minima. The polar faculae as proxy of the polar field replicate variations of the sunspot cycle amplitude over the last 100 years. The weak sunspot activity of Cycle 24 is assumed to result in the weak polar field.

Description: We have measured the meridional motions of the magnetic elements in the Sun's surface layers since 1996 and find systematic and substantial variations. In general the meridional flow speed is fast at cycle minima and slow at cycle maxima. We find that these systematic variations are characterized by a weakening of the meridional flow on the poleward sides of the active (sunspot) latitudes. This can be interpreted as a inflow toward the sunspot zones superimposed on a more general poleward meridional flow profile. We also find variations in the meridional flow which vary from cycle-to-cycle. The meridional flow was slower at both the minimum and maximum of cycle 23 compared to similar phases of cycles 21, 22, and 24. Models of the magnetic flux transport by a variable meridional flow suggest that it can significantly modulate the size and timing of the following sunspot cycle through its impact on the Sun's polar magnetic fields. We suggest that the meridional flow variations observed in cycle 23 contributed to the weak polar fields at the end of the cycle which then produced a weak cycle 24 and the extraordinary cycle 23/24 minimum.

Description: Narrowband whistler-mode waves with frequencies near 1 Hz have been observed near the Moon. We reveal that the narrowband spectra, the frequency concentration near 1 Hz, and the relations between the wave vector, magnetic field vector, and sunward directions can be explained by a condition in which the group velocity vector is almost cancelled by the solar wind velocity vector in the spacecraft frame. Hereafter, we refer to this condition as the group-standing condition. The spectral density is modified and has a peak at the frequency satisfying the group-standing condition because of the difference of the frequency width between the solar wind plasma frame and the spacecraft frame. In addition, if the waves were decelerated to be group-standing, the conservation of the energy flux results in the intensification of the wave amplitude at that frequency. We also derive the analytical expression of the amount of the modifications, which depend on the group velocity. These effects can explain the narrowband spectra near 1 Hz and support the relations between the wave vector, magnetic field vector, and sunward directions. The estimated frequency which satisfies the group-standing condition is in good agreement with the observed frequency within error bars of the estimation. Considering the group-standing condition, we suggest that the narrowband waves observed in the spacecraft frame are originated from oblique whistler-mode waves in the frequencies near the lower hybrid frequency, which are possibly generated by reflected ions from the lunar magnetic anomalies.

Description: [1]  Electron densities in the Martian nightside ionosphere are more than 90% of time too low to be detected by the MARSIS radar sounder on board the Mars Express spacecraft. However, the relative number of ionograms with peak electron density high enough to be detected represents a good statistical proxy of the ionospheric density. We focus on solar energetic particle (SEP) events, and we analyze their effects on ionospheric formation. SEP time intervals were identified in-situ using the background counts recorded by the ion sensor of the ASPERA-3 instrument on board Mars Express. We show that peak electron densities during the SEP events are large enough to be detected in more than 30% of measurements, and, moreover, the reflections of the sounding signal from the ground almost entirely disappear. Nightside electron densities during SEP events are thus substantially increased as compared to normal nightside conditions.

Description: [1]  This modeling study quantifies the daytime low latitude vertical ExB drift changes in the longitudinal wave number 1 (wn1) to wn4 during the major extended January 2006 Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) period as simulated by the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM), and attributes the drift changes to specific tides and planetary waves (PWs). The largest drift amplitude change (approximately 5 m/s) is seen in wn1 with a strong temporal correlation to the SSW. The wn1 drift is primarily caused by the semidiurnal westward propagating tide with zonal wave number 1 (SW1), and secondarily by a stationary planetary wave with zonal wave number 1 (PW1). SW1 is generated by the nonlinear interaction of PW1 and the migrating semidiurnal tide (SW2) at high latitude around 90-100 km. The simulations suggest that the E-region PW1 around 100-130 km at the different latitudes has different origins: at high latitudes the PW1 is related to the original stratospheric PW1, at mid latitudes the model indicates PW1 is due to the nonlinear interaction of SW1 and SW2 around 95-105 km, and at low latitudes the PW1 might be caused by the nonlinear interaction between DE2 and DE3. The time evolution of the simulated wn4 in the vertical ExB drift amplitude shows no temporal correlation with the SSW. The wn4 in the low latitude vertical drift is attributed to the diurnal eastward propagating tide with zonal wave number 3 (DE3), and the contributions from SE2, TE1 and PW4 are negligible.

Description: [1]  Geomagnetic activity is strongly controlled by solar wind and Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) conditions, especially the southward component of IMF (IMF Bs). We analyze the statistical properties of IMF Bs at 1 AU using in situ observations for more than a solar cycle (1995 - 2010). IMF Bs-events are defined as continuous IMF Bs intervals with varying thresholds of Bs magnitude and duration, and categorized by different solar wind structures, such as magnetic cloud (MC), interplanetary small-scale magnetic flux rope (ISMFR), interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) without MC signature (ejecta), stream interacting region (SIR), and shock, as well as events unrelated with well-defined solar wind structures. The statistical properties of IMF Bs-events and their geoeffectiveness are investigated in detail based on satellite and ground measurements. We find that the integrated duration and number of Bs-events follow the sunspot number when Bz 〈 -5 nT. We also find that in extreme Bs-events (t 〉 6 hours, Bz 〈 -10 nT), a majority (53 %) are related to MC and 10 % are related with ejecta, but nearly a quarter are not associated with any well-defined solar wind structure. We find different geomagnetic responsesfor Bs-events with comparable duration and magnitude depending on what type of solar wind structures they are associated with. We also find that great Bs-events (t 〉 3 hours, Bz 〈 -10 nT) do not always trigger magnetic storms.

Description: [1]  The effect of ocean heat uptake (OHU) on transient global warming is studied in a multi-model framework. Simple heat sinks are prescribed in shallow aquaplanet ocean mixed layers underlying atmospheric general circulation models, independently and combined with CO 2 forcing. Sinks are localized to either tropical or high latitudes, representing distinct modes of OHU found in coupled simulations. Tropical OHU produces modest cooling at all latitudes, offsetting only a fraction of CO 2 warming. High-latitude OHU produces three times more global-mean cooling in a strongly polar-amplified pattern. Global sensitivities in each scenario are set primarily by large differences in local shortwave cloud feedbacks, robust across models. Differences in atmospheric energy transport set the pattern of temperature change. Results imply that global and regional warming rates depend sensitively on regional ocean processes setting the OHU pattern, and that equilibrium climate sensitivity cannot be reliably estimated from transient observations.

Description: [1]  Detailed direct simulation Monte Carlo/Particle in Cell simulations involving the interaction of spacecraft thruster plumes with the rarefied ambient ionosphere are presented for steady thruster firings in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). A nominal mass flow rate is used to prescribe the rocket exit conditions of a neutral propellant species for use in the simulations. The charge exchange interactions of the steady plume with the rarefied ionosphere are modeled using a direct simulation Monte Carlo/Particle in Cell methodology, allowing for a detailed assessment of non-equilibrium collisional and plasma-related phenomena relevant for these conditions. Results are presented for both ram- and wake-flow configurations, in which the thrusters are firing into (ram) or in the direction of (wake) the free stream ionosphere flow in LEO. The influence of the Earth's magnetic field on the development of the ion plume is also examined for three different field strengths: two limiting cases in which B  → 0 and B  →  ∞ , and the LEO case in which B  = 0.5 Gs. The magnetic field is found to have a substantial impact on the resulting neutral and ion plumes, and the gyroscopic motion of the magnetized ions results in a broadening of the ion energy distribution functions. The magnetic field model also incorporates a cross-field diffusion mechanism which is shown to increase the current density sampled far from the thruster.

Description: [1]  Three radiation belt flux dropout events seen by the Relativistic Electron Proton Telescope soon after launch of the Van Allen Probes in 2012 (Baker et al., 2013a) have been simulated using the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry MHD code coupled to the Rice Convection Model, driven by measured upstream solar wind parameters. MHD results show inward motion of the magnetopause for each event, along with enhanced ULF wave power affecting radial transport. Test particle simulations of electron response on 8 October, prior to the strong flux enhancement on 9 October, provide evidence for loss due to magnetopause shadowing, both in energy and pitch angle dependence. Severe plasmapause erosion occurred during ~ 14 hours of strongly southward IMF Bz beginning 8 October coincident with the inner boundary of outer zone depletion.