ALBERT

Description: Interferometry measurements of range spread meteor trail echoes (RSTEs; also known as nonspecular echoes) have provided new insights into both the irregularity structures in meteor trails and lower-thermospheric winds (LTWs). In this study, we used trail echoes observed with the newly installed Sanya (18.4°N, 109.6°E) 47.5 MHz VHF coherent radar and the Sanya all-sky meteor radar to estimate instantaneous zonal and hourly averaged meridional winds from RSTEs and hourly averaged zonal and meridional winds from large numbers of specular meteor echoes. The mean height variations in both the zonal and meridional winds estimated from the RSTEs were generally consistent with those estimated from specular meteor echoes below 96 km. This gives validity to the technique proposed recently by Oppenheim et al. (2009) and suggests that RSTE measurements made with a small radar can be used to investigate LTWs, whereas this had previously been limited to larger radars such as the Jicamarca radar. However, some observations show significant differences in wind magnitude at individual heights at times. The results of RSTE measurements show the presence of an intense westward wind with a speed near 100 ms−1. In contrast, the specular meteor zonal winds were generally less than 50 ms−1. On the other hand, the meridional drift of RSTEs derived from the meridional Doppler velocity at higher altitudes shows a very poor correlation with the specular meteor meridional wind. Potential causes for the discrepancy in wind estimates obtained from RSTE and specular meteor trail echoes are discussed.

Description: High precision observations during Solar Cycle 23 using the Wisconsin H-alpha Mapper (WHAM) Fabry-Perot quantify a factor of 1.5 ± 0.15 higher Balmer α column emission intensity during near-solar-maximum than during solar minimum conditions. An unresolved question is how does the observed solar cycle variation in the hydrogen column emission compare with that calculated from the hydrogen distribution in atmospheric models? We have compared WHAM solar minimum and near-solar-maximum column intensity observations with calculations using the thermospheric hydrogen density profile and background thermospheric conditions from the Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter (NRLMSISE-00) empirical model extended to exospheric altitudes using the analytic exosphere model of Bishop (1991). Using this distribution, we apply the lyao_rt global resonance radiative transfer code of Bishop (1999) to calculate expected intensities that would be observed from the ground for the viewing conditions of the observations. The observed intensities are brighter than those calculated for the corresponding conditions, indicating that when MSIS is used as the thermospheric hydrogen distribution the derived intensities are too low. Additionally, both the observed and calculated WHAM hydrogen column emission intensities are higher for near-solar-maximum than for solar minimum conditions. There is better agreement between observations and intensities calculated using the evaporative analytic exosphere model at solar maximum, suggesting an underestimation of modeled satellite atoms at high altitudes. This result is consistent with sensitivity studies using the option for a quasi-exobase for satellite atoms to account for the creation of satellite orbits from charge exchange collisions.

Description: A series of high resolution multibeam echo sounding surveys near San Francisco, CA suggests the occasional migration of marine sandwave crests in the direction opposite to that indicated by the shape asymmetry of the individual sandwaves, in contrast to all previous observations of the relationship between bedform shape asymmetry and migration. The anti-asymmetry migration occurs over approximately the same time period that a new sand wave crest is formed within the large and relatively stable field. The new sandwave crest appears approximately midway between two larger crests, in the vicinity of structural defects in a nearly two-dimensional portion of the field. The sandwaves in the vicinity of the new crest are found to have migrated away from the new crest regardless of their shape asymmetry. Later a large section of the new crest disappears, and the neighboring sandwaves migrated back toward the vacated crest location. This migration occurs for sandwaves up to at least ten wavelengths away from the new crest.

Description: The Irish landmass, now at the western extremity of the Eurasian Plate, was formed in the Caledonian Orogeny during the Palaeozoic assembly of Pangea. The associated closure of the Iapetus Ocean is recorded in the NE–SW structural trends that dominate the tectonic set-up of Ireland today. The deep-crustal dynamics of the orogeny and the effect on the crust of the subsequent extension and magmatism in the North Atlantic are debated. Fabrics within deep crustal rocks preserve a record of deformation during and after the continental collisions. Here, we measured Rayleigh-wave phase velocities using seismograms recorded by permanent and temporary intermediate-band stations in Ireland and inverted the data for phase-velocity maps, including azimuthal anisotropy. The observed isotropic phase-velocity heterogeneity reflects moderate crustal thickness and seismic velocity variations across Ireland. Anisotropy of Rayleigh waves at 10–20 s periods shows a NE–SW fast-propagation direction and is largest (up to 2%) at a 15 s period, at which Rayleigh waves sample primarily the middle and lower crust. The NE–SW trend of the deep-crustal anisotropic fabric is parallel to tectonic trends, in particular the Iapetus Suture Zone, which indicates that suture-parallel flow in the middle and lower crust accommodated the continental collision. The apparent preservation of the Caledonian-age fabric also shows that the deep crust of the Eurasian margin in Ireland was neither stretched by the NW–SE extension associated with the opening of the North Atlantic, nor modified significantly by the Cenozoic magmatism in the region.

Description: Results from the first assessment of air quality over the Canadian oil sands–one of the largest industrial undertakings in human history–using satellite remote sensing observations of two pollutants, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), are presented. High-resolution maps were created that revealed distinct enhancements in both species over an area (roughly 30 km × 50 km) of intensive surface mining at scales of a few kilometers. The magnitude of these enhancements, quantified in terms of total mass, are comparable to the largest seen in Canada from individual sources. The rate of increase in NO2 between 2005 and 2010 was assessed at 10.4 ± 3.5%/year and resulted from increases both in local values as well as the spatial extent of the enhancement. This is broadly consistent with both surface-measurement trends and increases in annual bitumen production. An increase in SO2 was also found, but given larger uncertainties, it is not statistically significant.

Description: The diurnal cycle in the oceanic surface winds in the tropical eastern Pacific is shown, through numerical experiments with a regional atmospheric model, to be associated with the migrating diurnal atmospheric thermal tide, forced by absorption of solar near-IR radiation by tropospheric water vapor, and a topographically-modified extended sea-breeze, forced by diurnal land heating. Idealized experiments prove capable of discriminating the effects of both processes, showing that beyond 2000 km from the coast, the thermal tide is dominant, while closer to the coast both processes are of the same order. The shortwave forcing due to water vapor is also found to produce a diurnal cycle in precipitation, but the process appears to be independent from the thermal tide and it is proposed that this effect is mediated by the radiatively-forced changes in the column stability.

Description: In the summer 2010 Western Russia was hit by an extraordinary heat wave, with the region experiencing by far the warmest July since records began. Whether and to what extent this event is attributable to anthropogenic climate change is controversial. Dole et al. (2011) report the 2010 Russian heat wave was “mainly natural in origin” whereas Rahmstorf and Coumou (2011) write that with a probability of 80% “the 2010 July heat record would not have occurred” without the large-scale climate warming since 1980, most of which has been attributed to the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter explicitly state that their results “contradict those of Dole et al. (2011).” Here we use the results from a large ensemble simulation experiment with an atmospheric general circulation model to show that there is no substantive contradiction between these two papers, in that the same event can be both mostly internally-generated in terms of magnitude and mostly externally-driven in terms of occurrence-probability. The difference in conclusion between these two papers illustrates the importance of specifying precisely what question is being asked in addressing the issue of attribution of individual weather events to external drivers of climate.

Description: Current consensus on global climate change predicts warming trends driven by anthropogenic forcing, with maximum temperature changes projected in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes during winter. Yet, global temperature trends show little warming over the most recent decade or so. For longer time periods appropriate to the assessment of trends, however, global temperatures have experienced significant warming trends for all seasons except winter, when cooling trends exist instead across large stretches of eastern North America and northern Eurasia. Hence, the most recent lapse in global warming is a seasonal phenomenon, prevalent only in boreal winter. Additionally, we show that the largest regional contributor to global temperature trends over the past two decades is land surface temperatures in the NH extratropics. Therefore, proposed mechanisms explaining the fluctuations in global annual temperatures should address this apparent seasonal asymmetry.

Description: The behaviour of hydraulically ‘tight’ barrier rocks is a key determinant of the long-term integrity of potential underground storage sites for the waste products from low-carbon emission energy production technologies (including nuclear waste and CO2 captured from fossil fuels). Here we isolate the relationship between crack-induced permeability and porosity using an initially crack-free natural crystalline material. We vary secondary porosity from an initial value of zero, and demonstrate that the bulk permeability K varies with total connected porosity Φ above the percolation threshold Φc as K = K0(Φ − Φc)n, where n = 3.8 ± 0.4, i.e., similar to results obtained for higher porosity rocks, indicating universality of this scaling law. Close to the percolation threshold a modest change in total porosity from 1% to 5% or so results in a massive change in permeability of 7 orders of magnitude or more. The results are consistent with a continuum percolation model that reflects the microstructure of the pore/induced microcrack network in the natural material.

Description: The main goal of this paper is to estimate the errors involved in applying a quasi-static convection model such as the Rice Convection Model (RCM) or its equilibrium version (RCM-E), which neglect inertial currents, to treat the injection of fresh particles into the inner magnetosphere in a substorm expansion phase. The approach is based on the idea that the dipolarization process involves earthward motion of a bubble that consists of flux tubes that have lower values of the entropy parameter than the surrounding medium. Our tests center on comparing MHD simulations with RCM- and RCM-E-like quasi-static approximations, for cases where the bubble is considered to be a thin ideal-MHD filament. Those quasi-static solutions miss the interchange oscillations that are often a feature of the MHD results. RCM and, to a lesser extent, RCM-E calculations tend to overestimate the westward electric field at the ionospheric footprint of the bubble and underestimate its duration. However, both get the time integral of the E × B drift velocity right as well as the net energization of the particles in the filament. The quasi-static approximation is most accurate if its computed value of the braking time of the bubble's earthward motion is long compared to the period of the relevant interchange oscillation. Comparison of MHD filament simulations of interchange instability with corresponding RCM calculations suggests a similar validity criterion. For plasma sheet conditions, the quasi-static approximation is typically best if the background medium has low β, worst if it consists of highly stretched field lines.

Description: The Geoelectrodynamics and Electro-Optical Detection of Electron and Suprathermal Ion Currents (GEODESIC) sounding rocket encountered more than 100 filamentary density cavities associated with enhanced plasma waves at ELF (

Description: This paper presents a quantitative theory of “interchange oscillations,” which occur as an earthward-moving low-entropy plasma bubble slows and eventually comes to rest. Our theoretical picture is based on an idealized situation where an ideal-MHD magnetic filament moves without friction through a stationary background that represents the plasma sheet. If the relevant region of the background plasma sheet is interchange stable, then the filament usually executes a damped oscillation about an equilibrium position, where its entropy parameter matches the local background. The oscillations are typically dramatic only if the equatorial plasma beta is greater than about one. We derive an approximate analytic formula for the oscillation period, which is not simply related to slow- or intermediate-wave travel times. For an oscillation that Panov and collaborators carefully studied using THEMIS data, our simple theory, though based on an unrealistic 2D background magnetic field, predicted an oscillation period that agrees with the observations within about 40%. The simulations suggest that the ionospheric oscillation should lag behind the magnetospheric one by between 40 and 90 degrees. Ionospheric conductance affects the damping rate, which maximizes for an auroral zone conductance ∼2 S. Adding a friction force acting between the filament and the background increases the decay rate of the oscillation.

Description: Unusually cold conditions in Arctic winter 2010/11 led to large stratospheric ozone loss. We investigate this with UV-visible measurements made at Eureka, Canada (80.05°N, 86.42°W) from 1999–2011. For 8–22 March 2011, OClO was enhanced, indicating chlorine activation above Eureka. Ozone columns were lower than in any other year in the record, reaching minima of 237 DU and 247 DU in two datasets. The average NO2 column inside the vortex, measured at visible and UV wavelengths, was 46 ± 30% and 45 ± 27% lower in 2011 than the average NO2 column from previous years. Ozone column loss was estimated from two ozone datasets, using a modeled passive ozone tracer. For 12–20 March 2011, the average ozone loss was 27% and 29% (99 DU and 108 DU). The largest percent ozone loss in the 11-year record of 47% (250 DU and 251 DU) was observed on 5 April 2011.

Description: The turbulent structure of airflow over a barchan sand dune is determined using quadrant analysis of wind velocity data derived from sonic anemometers. Results indicate an increased frequency of ejection and sweep events in the toe region of the dune, characteristic of the turbulent bursting process. In contrast, at the crest there was a significant increase in the occurrence of outward interactions. Combined with high frequency saltation data our analyses show that turbulent structures characterised by a positive streamwise fluctuating velocity (+u′; sweeps at the toe and outward interactions at the crest) have a dominant influence on sand transport on the dune, together accounting for up to 83% and 95% of transporting events at the toe and crest respectively.

Description: Arctic sea ice cover has decreased dramatically over the last three decades. Global climate models under-predicted this decline, most likely a result of the misrepresentation of one or more processes that influence sea ice. The cloud feedback is the primary source of uncertainty in model simulations, especially in the polar regions. A better understanding of the interaction between sea ice and clouds, and specifically the impact of decreased sea ice on cloud cover, will provide valuable insight into the Arctic climate system and may ultimately help in improving climate model parameterizations. In this study, an equilibrium feedback assessment is employed to quantify the relationship between changes in sea ice and clouds, using satellite-derived sea ice concentration and cloud cover over the period 2000–2010. Results show that a 1% decrease in sea ice concentration leads to a 0.36–0.47% increase in cloud cover, suggesting that a further decline in sea ice cover will result in an even cloudier Arctic.

Description: Over historic time Hawai‘i's dryland forests have been largely replaced by grasslands for grazing livestock. On-going efforts have been undertaken to restore dryland forests to bring back native species and reduce erosion. The reestablishment of native ecosystems on land severely degraded by long-term alternative use requires reversal of the impacts of erosion, organic-matter loss, and soil structural damage on soil hydraulic properties. This issue is perhaps especially critical in dryland forests where the soil must facilitate native plants' optimal use of limited water. These reforestation efforts depend on restoring soil ecological function, including soil hydraulic properties. We hypothesized that reforestation can measurably change soil hydraulic properties over restoration timescales. At a site on the island of Maui (Hawai‘i, USA), we measured infiltration capacity, hydrophobicity, and abundance of preferential flow channels in a deforested grassland and in an adjacent area where active reforestation has been going on for fourteen years. Compared to the nearby deforested rangeland, mean field-saturated hydraulic conductivity in the newly restored forest measured by 55 infiltrometer tests was greater by a factor of 2.0. Hydrophobicity on an 8-point scale increased from average category 6.0 to 6.9. A 4-point empirical categorization of preferentiality in subsurface wetting patterns increased from an average 1.3 in grasslands to 2.6 in the restored forest. All of these changes act to distribute infiltrated water faster and deeper, as appropriate for native plant needs. This study indicates that vegetation restoration can lead to ecohydrologically important changes in soil hydraulic properties over decadal time scales.

Description: We present an improved time-domain model of the lightning electromagnetic pulse (EMP) interaction with the lower ionosphere. This improved model inherently accounts for the Earth's curvature, includes an arbitrary number of ion species, and uses a convolutional Perfectly Matched Layer (PML) boundary. We apply an improved model of electron heating due to the lightning EMP and electrostatic fields, and we include ionization, attachment, and detachment. In addition to modeling lightning, this model can be used for long-distance VLF wave propagation in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide, heating of the lower ionosphere by VLF transmitters, and heating in the F-region ionosphere by lightning. In this paper we present three initial results of this model. First, we compare results of ionospheric heating and electron density disturbances with and without electron detachment taken into account. We find that detachment is important only for the QE effects on time scales longer than 1 ms. Second, we find a simple explanation for the recently-reported “elve doublets”, which we find are an effect of the rise and fall times of the lightning waveform. In particular, we find that all elves are doublets, and the rise and fall times of the current pulse control the brightness and separation in time of the two successive halves of the elve. Third, we find a similar simple explanation for “ring” sprites, whole columns appear in a circle symmetric around the discharge axis. We find that ring sprites can be initiated for particular current waveforms, where the QE and EMP fields in the mesosphere produce a maximum reduced field away from the discharge axis.

Description: This bi-polar analysis resolves ice edge changes on space/time scales relevant for investigating seasonal ice-ocean feedbacks and focuses on spatio-temporal changes in the timing of annual sea ice retreat and advance over 1979/80 to 2010/11. Where Arctic sea ice decrease is fastest, the sea ice retreat is now nearly 2 months earlier and subsequent advance more than 1 month later (compared to 1979/80), resulting in a 3-month longer summer ice-free season. In the Antarctic Peninsula and Bellingshausen Sea region, sea ice retreat is more than 1 month earlier and advance 2 months later, resulting in a more than 3-month longer summer ice-free season. In contrast, in the western Ross Sea (Antarctica) region, sea ice retreat and advance are more than 1 month later and earlier respectively, resulting in a more than 2 month shorter summer ice-free season. Regardless of trend magnitude or direction, and at latitudes mostly poleward of 70° (N/S), there is strong correspondence between anomalies in the timings of sea ice retreat and subsequent advance, but little correspondence between advance and subsequent retreat. These results support a strong ocean thermal feedback in autumn in response to changes in spring sea ice retreat. Further, model calculations suggest different net ocean heat changes in the Arctic versus Antarctic where autumn sea ice advance is 1 versus 2 months later. Ocean-atmosphere changes, particularly in boreal spring and austral autumn (i.e., during ∼March-May), are discussed and compared, as well as possible inter-hemispheric climate connections.

Description: Monsoons, the most energetic tropical climate system, exert a great social and economic impact upon billions of people around the world. The global monsoon precipitation had an increasing trend over the past three decades. Whether or not this increasing trend will continue in the 21st century is investigated, based on simulations of three high-resolution atmospheric general circulation models that were forced by different future sea surface temperature (SST) warming patterns. The results show that the global monsoon area, precipitation and intensity all increase consistently among the model projections. This indicates that the strengthened global monsoon is a robust signal across the models and SST patterns explored here. The increase of the global monsoon precipitation is attributed to the increases of moisture convergence and surface evaporation. The former is caused by the increase of atmospheric water vapor and the latter is due to the increase of SST. The effect of the moisture and evaporation increase is offset to a certain extent by the weakening of the monsoon circulation.

Description: Ground based optical instruments are invaluable tools for studies of processes associated with the cusps and auroral morphology. In this work we present a method for obtaining the magnetic latitude of the open/closed field line boundary (OCB) from the cusp 6300 Å[OI] auroral red line using a meridian scanning photometer. The method which is based on a pre-defined reference cusp aurora produced by the GLOW model is examined with respect to uncertainties, and we describe how a set of equations describing the error is constructed. The method is applicable to data from optical instruments located at high latitude observation sites such as Svalbard and Antarctica. Equations describing both errors and the mapping altitude for transforming the OCB from instrument centered coordinates to magnetic latitude for instrumentation located in Svalbard (Longyearbyen) are presented. Further, by applying the GLOW model we present results illustrating the great variability in the altitude profile of the atomic oxygen 6300 Å[OI] red line emission in the cusp. A simple calculation showing how a poleward neutral wind will change the latitudinal shape of the cusp aurora is also performed.

Description: Based on conjugate ground and THEMIS satellite observations, we show electron spectra and wave characteristics near the magnetic equatorial plane during a pulsating aurora event on the high latitude side of the auroral oval. The pulsating aurora was observed by a 30-Hz sampled all-sky imager (ASI) at Gillam (56.4°N, 265.4°E), Canada, at ∼0840-0910 UT on 8 January 2008. The auroral intensity pulsation at the possible THEMIS D (THD) footprints had frequency peaks at ∼0.1–0.2 Hz. The footprint of THD was in the poleward part of the proton aurora observed by a meridian-scanning photometer. After auroral pulsation began at ∼0842 UT, both THD and THEMIS E which was near THD in the mid-tail at 11.6–11.8 RE, observed enhanced field-aligned electron fluxes at energies of 1–10 keV. However, the amplitudes of whistler mode waves and electrostatic cyclotron harmonics (ECH) waves observed by THD with the highest sampling rate of 8 kHz were not significant, showing a marked contrast to the recent report of clear correlation between whistler mode waves and auroral pulsations observed at 5–9 RE. We suggest that the observed field-aligned electrons, which are probably caused by Fermi-type acceleration associated with earthward plasma flow in the mid-tail plasma sheet, are modulated by some wave processes to cause pulsating auroras.

Description: We performed three-dimensional Hall magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of magnetic reconnection with finite width along the direction perpendicular to the antiparallel magnetic field (i.e., the direction of the electric current). Previous similar simulations including the Hall term have shown that the localized reconnection region itself can broaden in the anticurrent direction when the initial current is carried only by electrons. However, there is still no clear understanding of the behavior of the reconnection region in the presence of the initial ion current as in the Earth's magnetotail plasma sheet since no simulations have been carried out under such situations. In this study, we performed a systematic parametric survey considering the cases in which the initial current is carried not only by electrons but also by ions and found that the speed and direction of the current-aligned broadening of the reconnection region are almost equal to those of background ion and electron flows that carry the current. This result means that location and size of the localized reconnection region vary with time, depending on plasma conditions in the background current sheet in Hall MHD regime. The rate of the localized reconnection can reach close to the value in the two-dimensional case, even when reconnection starts in an extremely narrow region with its current-aligned width equal to an ion inertial length. The localized reconnection process also produces the asymmetry of the current-aligned structure of the reconnection jet. These results can explain various observational features related to magnetic reconnection in the near-Earth magnetotail.

Description: This first paper in a two part series summarizes the current theory and the data-driven solar wind model for simulating dynamic spectra of type II radio bursts. It also introduces performance metrics and techniques for extraction of model shock parameters from these dynamic spectra. We use an iterative downhill simplex method which compares two dynamic spectra and quantitatively assesses and improves the agreement using two figures of merit: the first is based on the correlation function and the second is based on a normalized differences over the data set. By maximizing the agreement we are able to extract the input model shock parameters to within 30% or better when using model solar winds of increasing complexity. The effects on the spectra predicted and on the figures of merit from changing the model shock parameters and solar wind model are also investigated. The iterative downhill extraction method is then applied to the type II dynamic spectrum predicted using a realistic model solar wind and a shock model estimated for an observed type II event. The shock parameters are recovered to within 10% of the correct solution.

Description: Beat-wave generation of very low frequency (VLF) waves by two HF heaters in the ionosphere is formulated theoretically and demonstrated experimentally. The heater-induced differential thermal pressure force and ponderomotive force, which dominate separately in the D and F regions of the ionosphere, drive an electron current for the VLF emission. A comparison, applying appropriate ionospheric parameters shows that the ponderomotive force dominates in beat-wave generation of VLF waves. Three experiments, one in the nighttime in the absence of D and E layers and two in the daytime in the presence of D and E layers, were performed. X mode HF heaters of slightly different frequencies were transmitted at CW full power. VLF waves at 10 frequencies ranging from 3.5 to 21.5 kHz were generated. The frequency dependencies of the daytime and nighttime radiation intensities are quite similar, but the nighttime radiation is much stronger than the daytime one at the same radiation frequency. The intensity ratio is as large as 9 dB at 11.5 kHz. An experiment directly comparing VLF waves generated by the beat-wave approach and by the amplitude modulation (AM) approach was also conducted. The results rule out the likely contribution of the AM mechanism acting on the electrojet and indicate that beat-wave in the VLF range prefers to be generated in the F region of the ionosphere through the ponderomotive nonlinearity, consistent with the theory. In the nighttime experiment, the ionosphere was underdense to the HF heaters, suggesting a likely setting for effective beat-wave generation of VLF waves by the HF heaters.

Description: Infrared radiative emissions by carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO) are the major cooling mechanisms of the lower thermosphere. During geomagnetically active periods, the NO density and cooling rate in the auroral regions increase significantly as a result of particle precipitation and Joule heating. Previous studies have shown that the time for NO density to recover to quiet time levels is longer than that of the thermosphere temperature or density recovery. This study explores the implications of these different recovery rates for the post-storm thermosphere. Thermosphere densities retrieved from the CHAMP and GRACE accelerometer measurements and NO cooling rates measured by TIMED/SABER are used to examine their variations during the post-storm period of the October 2003 geomagnetic storms. It was found that thermosphere densities at both CHAMP and GRACE altitudes recovered rapidly and continuously decreased below the quiet time densities during the post-storm period, especially at middle latitudes. Compared with the quiet time values, the maximum depletion in the CHAMP and GRACE densities after the storm is about 23–36%, and the estimated decrease of thermospheric temperature is as large as 70–110 K. Our analysis suggests that the elevated NO cooling rate, resulting from the slower recovery of NO densities in the post-storm period, is a plausible cause for this apparent post-storm overcooling of the thermosphere.

Description: In this paper we present and analyze the Gadanki radar observations of an unusual event of daytime radar echoes from the E region, which spread over a range of 105–150 km and displayed a “U shape” in the range-time SNR map. The U shape echoing structure was an added feature to the commonly observed lower E region echoes with slowly descending features and 150 km echoes with range migration displaying a forenoon descent and afternoon ascent. Distinctly different Doppler velocities were observed in the two arms of the U shape structure with velocities increasing with height and surprisingly exceeding the Doppler velocities of the 150 km echoes. The Doppler spectra display features very similar to those observed below 100 km indicating turbulence as the underlying process. A collocated ionosonde observed unusually strong sporadic E (Es) activity with maximum reflected/scattered frequency (ftEs) reaching 16 MHz in close correspondence with the U shape structure. During the same duration, a collocated 250.6 MHz scintillation receiver revealed scintillation activity, not observed before from Gadanki. The unusual radar observations, strong Es activity, and daytime scintillation are first of its kind from Gadanki. Detailed analysis suggests that the U shape radar echoes extending to 150 km range were due to the sidelobe detection of the E region irregularities with special features that were also responsible for the daytime scintillation. The genesis and implication of the irregularities are discussed.

Description: The statistical characteristics of small-scale spatial and temporal electric field variability in the high-latitude regions of Earth's ionosphere are investigated using 48 months of data from the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) radars in both hemispheres. Electric field fluctuations on spatial scales between 45 km and 450 km and on temporal scales between 2 min and 20 min are considered. It is found that both the distribution shapes and scale-size dependencies of the fluctuations are consistent with the expected properties of a turbulent flow. The observed spatial and temporal variability is influenced primarily by the magnitude of the shear or gradient in the background plasma drift and by season and solar cycle, suggesting plasma instabilities and gradients in the conductance as sources of the electric field variability. The relationship between spatial and temporal variability is investigated and it is found that the fluctuations are likely to be a mixture of convecting static and time-varying structures. It is also observed that the small-scale variability has statistical characteristics that are very similar in the two hemispheres. For practical purposes, although a stretched exponential function best matches the data, the distribution of observed electric field fluctuations can be approximated using an exponential function, enabling straightforward generation of nearly realistic random fluctuations.

Description: In this paper we validate the method of Johnsen et al. (2012) for obtaining the cusp open/closed field line boundary (OCB) by the means of a single meridian scanning photometer (MSP). Three cases of conjugate measurements between the Longyearbyen MSP and the NOAA-16 satellite are presented. The satellite OCB as obtained by the energetic particle detectors carried onboard the NOAA-16 satellite is well co-located with the OCB as obtained by the ground-based MSP and well within the calculated uncertainties. We conclude that the method presented by Johnsen et al. (2012) for deriving the cusp OCB using a single MSP produces conscientious results.

Description: The Big Dry, a recent drought over southeast Australia, began around 1997 and continued until 2011. We show that between 2002–2010, instead of a localized drought, there was a continent-wide reduction in water storage, vegetation and rainfall, spanning the northwest to the southeast of Australia. Trends in water storage and vegetation were assessed using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. Water storage and NDVI are shown to be significantly correlated across the continent and the greatest losses of water storage occurred over northwest Australia. The frequency of tropical cyclones over northwest Australia peaked just prior to the launch of the GRACE mission in 2002. Indeed, since 1981, decade-scale fluctuations in tropical cyclone numbers coincide with similar variation in rainfall and vegetation over northwest Australia. Rainfall and vegetation in southeast Australia trended oppositely to the northwest prior to 2001. Despite differences between the northwest and southeast droughts, there is reason to believe that continental droughts may occur when the respective climate drivers align.

Description: To investigate the effect of photochemical aging on the stable carbon isotopic ratio (δ13C) of oxalic acid (OxA), a dominant organic species in atmospheric aerosols, we conducted a laboratory photolysis of OxA under H2O2-Fe3+(Fe2+)-UV system in aqueous phase and measured δ13C of remaining OxA. Our results showed that a significant photolysis of OxA occurred with OH radical but the isotopic fractionation of OxA was insignificant. In contrast, in the presence of Fe3+ (Fe2+), we found a significant enrichment of 13C in remaining OxA. We also found that kinetic isotope effect (KIE) of OxA largely depends on photochemical age (irradiation time) and concentration ratios of OxA to iron; 3.20 ± 0.49‰ (2.18 ± 1.18‰) and 21.62 ± 5.41‰ in 90 min and 180 min irradiation, in which OxA and Fe3+ (Fe2+) ratios were 50:1 and 200:1, respectively. The enrichment of 13C in remaining OxA was more significant during the photolysis catalyzed by Fe3+ (7‰) than by Fe2+ (3‰) in 90 min irradiation when OxA and iron ratios are the same (50:1). This study provides a laboratory evidence for the isotopic enrichment of 13C in OxA with photochemical aging. This approach is useful for better interpretation of atmospheric isotopic measurements in terms of the extent of atmospheric processing of aerosols.

Description: Lake Superior, the northern-most of the Laurentian Great Lakes, is the largest (by surface area) freshwater lake on the planet. Due in part to its high water surface to land area ratio, over one-third of the Lake Superior basin water budget is derived from precipitation falling directly on the lake surface. For most of the Great Lakes (including Lake Superior), historical precipitation estimates extend back to the early 1880s, and are based primarily on land-based gauge measurements. While alternatives to gauge-based estimates have been explored, there is no clear history of applying regional climate models (RCMs) to improve historical over-lake precipitation estimates. To address this gap in regional research, and to advance the state-of-the-art in Great Lakes regional hydrological modeling, we compare 21 years of output (1980–2000) from an RCM to conventional gauge-based precipitation estimates for the same time period over the Lake Superior basin. We find that the RCM, unlike the gauge-based method, simulates realistic variations in over-lake atmospheric stability, which propagate into basin-wide precipitation estimates with a relatively low over-lake to over-land precipitation ratio in warm months (roughly 0.7 to 0.8 in June, July, and August) and a relatively high over-lake to over-land precipitation ratio in cold months (roughly 1.3 to 1.4 in December and January), compared to gauge-based estimates. Our findings underscore a need to potentially update historical gauge-based precipitation estimates for large lake systems, including Lake Superior, and that RCMs appear to provide a robust and defensible basis for making those updates.

Description: The failure of frictional interfaces and the spatiotemporal structures that accompany it are central to a wide range of geophysical, physical and engineering systems. Recent geophysical and laboratory observations indicated that interfacial failure can be mediated by slow slip rupture phenomena which are distinct from ordinary, earthquake-like, fast rupture. These discoveries have influenced the way we think about frictional motion, yet the nature and properties of slow rupture are not completely understood. We show that slow rupture is an intrinsic and robust property of simple non-monotonic rate-and-state friction laws. It is associated with a new velocity scale cmin, determined by the friction law, below which steady state rupture cannot propagate. We further show that rupture can occur in a continuum of states, spanning a wide range of velocities from cmin to elastic wave-speeds, and predict different properties for slow rupture and ordinary fast rupture. Our results are qualitatively consistent with recent high-resolution laboratory experiments and may provide a theoretical framework for understanding slow rupture phenomena along frictional interfaces.

Description: Total mercury (HgT) and monomethyl mercury (MMHg) concentrations in fog collected from 4 locations in and around Monterey Bay, California during June-August of 2011 were 10.7 ± 6.8 and 3.4 ± 3.8 ng L−1 respectively. In contrast, mean HgT and MMHg concentrations in rain water from March-June, 2011 were 1.8 ± 0.9 and 0.1 ± 0.04 ng L−1 respectively. Using estimates of fog water deposition from 6 sites in the region using a standard fog water collector (SFC), depositions of HgT and MMHg via fog were found to range from 42–4600 and 14–1500 ng m−2 y−1, which accounted for 7–42% of HgT and 61–99% of MMHg in total atmospheric deposition (fog, rain, and dry deposition), estimated for the coastal area. These initial measurements suggest that fog precipitation may constitute an important but previously overlooked input of MMHg to coastal environments. Preliminary comparisons of these data with associated chemical, meteorological and oceanic data suggest that biotically formed MMHg from coastal upwelling may contribute to the MMHg in fog water.

Description: Model simulations performed with a three-dimensional, high-resolution, process study ocean model of eastern boundary upwelling systems are used to describe a mechanism that efficiently transports sediment-derived dissolved iron offshore in the subsurface through the bottom boundary layer (BBL) during downwelling-favorable wind events. In the model, sediment-derived iron accumulates in the BBL on the outer shelf when the winds are upwelling-favorable. When the wind reverses, the iron-laden BBL is mixed into the water column and transported offshore along isopycnals that intersect the bottom. Depending on the frequency of wind reversal, between 10–50% of the shelf sediment-derived iron flux is exported offshore through this previously unidentified subsurface pathway. If this mechanism operates on all coastal upwelling regimes, the global export of sediment-derived iron to the open ocean would be equivalent to ten times larger than the estimated source of dissolved iron from aerosols.

Description: We extend traditional, single payload, interferometric techniques to a multiple payload sounding rocket mission, and apply these techniques to measure the parallel and perpendicular wavelength of auroral VLF hiss from 8 kHz–20 kHz. We model the wavelength distribution of auroral hiss as a cone at a fixed angle with respect to the magnetic field that is isotropically distributed in the perpendicular plane. We apply this model to calculate the interferometric observables, coherency and phase, for a sounding rocket mission whose wave electric field receivers are on payloads that are separated 2–3 km along the magnetic field and 55–200 m across the magnetic field. Using an interferometer formed by comparing the collinear sphere-to-skin electric field antennas on a single payload, we estimate a lower limit on the perpendicular wavelength of VLF hiss of ∼60 m. Analysis of coherency and phase due to this conical wave vector distribution for a multipayload interferometer reveals the existence of a spin dependent coherency pattern. From this coherency pattern we generate an upper limit perpendicular wavelength estimate for VLF hiss of ∼350 m. The inter-payload phase gives an accurate estimate of the parallel wavelength of ∼6000–8000 m. This parallel wavelength is combined with the lower (upper) limit perpendicular wavelength estimates to generate upper (lower) limits on wave-normal angle. These limits are each within one degree of the predicted electrostatic whistler wave resonance cone angle verifying that VLF hiss propagates on this resonance cone.

Description: Spanning a latitudinal range typical for deserts, the Indian peninsula is fertile instead and sustains over a billion people through monsoonal rains. Despite the strong link between climate and society, our knowledge of the long-term monsoon variability is incomplete over the Indian subcontinent. Here we reconstruct the Holocene paleoclimate in the core monsoon zone (CMZ) of the Indian peninsula using a sediment core recovered offshore from the mouth of Godavari River. Carbon isotopes of sedimentary leaf waxes provide an integrated and regionally extensive record of the flora in the CMZ and document a gradual increase in aridity-adapted vegetation from ∼4,000 until 1,700 years ago followed by the persistence of aridity-adapted plants after that. The oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber detects unprecedented high salinity events in the Bay of Bengal over the last 3,000 years, and especially after 1,700 years ago, which suggest that the CMZ aridification intensified in the late Holocene through a series of sub-millennial dry episodes. Cultural changes occurred across the Indian subcontinent as the climate became more arid after ∼4,000 years. Sedentary agriculture took hold in the drying central and south India, while the urban Harappan civilization collapsed in the already arid Indus basin. The establishment of a more variable hydroclimate over the last ca. 1,700 years may have led to the rapid proliferation of water-conservation technology in south India.

Description: Hot temperatures in combination with high humidity cause human discomfort and may increase morbidity and mortality. A global climate model with an embedded urban model is used to explore the urban-rural contrast in the wet-bulb globe temperature, a heat stress index accounting for temperature and humidity. Wet-bulb globe temperatures are calculated at each model time step to resolve the heat stress diurnal cycle. The model simulates substantially higher heat stress in urban areas compared to neighbouring rural areas. Urban humidity deficit only weakly offsets the enhanced heat stress due to the large night-time urban heat island. The urban-rural contrast in heat stress is most pronounced at night and over mid-latitudes and subtropics. During heatwaves, the urban heat stress amplification is particularly pronounced. Heat stress strongly increases with doubled CO2 concentrations over both urban and rural surfaces. The tropics experience the greatest increase in number of high-heat-stress nights, despite a relatively weak ∼2°C warming. Given the lack of a distinct annual cycle and high relative humidity, the modest tropical warming leads to exceedance of the present-day record levels during more than half of the year in tropical regions, where adaptive capacity is often low. While the absolute urban and rural heat stress response to 2 × CO2 is similar, the occurrence of nights with extremely high heat stress increases more in cities than surrounding rural areas.

Description: Large-scale die-off of tidal marsh vegetation, caused by global change, is expected to change flow patterns over tidal wetlands, and hence to affect valuable wetland functions such as reduction of shoreline erosion, attenuation of storm surges, and sedimentation in response to sea level rise. This study quantified for the first time the effects of large-scale (4 ha) artificial vegetation removal, as proxy of die-off, on the spatial flow patterns through a tidal marsh channel and over the surrounding marsh platform. After vegetation removal, the flow velocities measured on the platform increased by a factor of 2 to 4, while the channel flow velocities decreased by almost a factor of 3. This was associated with a change in flow directions on the platform, from perpendicular to the channel edges when vegetation was present, to a tendency of more parallel flow to the channel edges when vegetation was absent. Comparison with hydrodynamic model simulations explains that the vegetation-induced friction causes both flow reduction on the vegetated platform and flow acceleration towards the non-vegetated channels. Our findings imply that large-scale vegetation die-off would not only result in decreased platform sedimentation rates, but also in sediment infilling of the channels, which together would lead to further worsening of plant growth conditions and a potentially runaway feedback to permanent vegetation loss.

Description: In this study we examine the hydrological processes that underpin non-stationarity in hydrological prediction. This is achieved by analysis of linkages between rainfall, groundwater storage, and runoff in Southwest Western Australia (SWWA), a region experiencing stream flow decline since the mid-1970s. We find a close connection between rainfall and changes in catchment groundwater storage, with increases in storage in years with annual rainfall above a threshold (1050–1400 mm), and declines during low rainfall years. Where groundwater is in contact with the stream bed, runoff, as a proportion of rainfall, is highly correlated with groundwater storage. Recent drought years have reduced groundwater storage and runoff ratio. In the absence of replenishing wetter years, lower runoff ratios are subsequently maintained. Runoff from a given depth of annual rainfall is now far lower than that produced 15 years ago. In this way groundwater storage acts as the catchment's “memory”. This study highlights the importance of catchment groundwater storage that may be used to improve runoff prediction in a drying climate.

Description: Recent warming and freshening of the Canada Basin has led to the year-round storage of solar radiation as the near-surface temperature maximum (NSTM). Using year-round ocean (from ice tethered profilers and autonomous ocean flux buoys), sea-ice (from ice mass balance buoys), and atmosphere (from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) data from 2005–2010, we find that heat from the NSTM is entrained into the surface mixed layer (SML) during winter. Entrainment can only occur when the base of the SML reaches the top of the NSTM. If this condition is met, the surface forcing and stratification together determine whether the SML deepens into the NSTM. Heat transfer occurs by diffusion or by the erosion of the summer halocline. The average temperature of the SML warmed by as much as 0.06°C during storm events. Solar radiation began warming the SML about 1 month early during the winter of 2007–2008 and this can be explained by thin sea ice.

Description: The wave number 4 (wave 4) and wave number 3 (wave 3) longitudinal structures in the thermospheric neutral mass density are understood as tidal structures driven by diurnal eastward propagating zonal wave number 3 (DE3) and wave number 2 (DE2) tides, respectively. However, those structures have been identified using data from limited time periods, and the consistency and recurrence of those structures have not yet been examined using long-term observation data. We examine the persistence of those structures by analyzing the neutral mass density data for the years 2001–2008 taken by the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) satellite. During years of low solar activity the amplitude of the wave 4 structure is pronounced during August and September, and the wave 4 phase shows a consistent eastward phase progression of 90° within 24 h local time in different months and years. During years of high solar activity the wave 4 amplitude is small and does not show a distinctive annual pattern, but the tendency of the eastward phase shift at a rate of 90°/24 h exists. Thus the DE3 signature in the wave 4 structure is considered as a persistent feature. The wave 3 structure is a weak feature in most months and years. The amplitude and phase of the wave 3 structure do not show a notable solar cycle dependence. Among the contributing tidal modes to the wave 3 structure, the DE2 amplitude is most pronounced. This result may suggest that the DE2 signature, although it is a weak signature, is a perceivable persistent feature in the thermosphere.

Description: Arctic column ozone reached record low values (∼310 DU) during March of 2011, exposing Arctic ecosystems to enhanced UV-B. We identify the cause of this anomaly using the Oslo CTM2 atmospheric chemistry model driven by ECMWF meteorology to simulate Arctic ozone from 1998 through 2011. CTM2 successfully reproduces the variability in column ozone, from week to week, and from year to year, correctly identifying 2011 as an extreme anomaly over the period. By comparing parallel model simulations, one with all Arctic ozone chemistry turned off on January 1, we find that chemical ozone loss in 2011 is enhanced relative to previous years, but it accounted for only 23% of the anomaly. Weakened transport of ozone from middle latitudes, concurrent with an anomalously strong polar vortex, was the primary cause of the low ozone When the zonal winds relaxed in mid-March 2011, Arctic column ozone quickly recovered.

Description: This study integrates available surface-based and satellite observations of solar radiation at the surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA) with a comprehensive set of satellite observations of atmospheric and surface optical properties and a Monte Carlo Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation (MACR) model to estimate the three fundamental components of the planetary solar radiation budget: Albedo at the TOA; atmospheric solar absorption; and surface solar absorption. The MACR incorporates most if not all of our current understanding of the theory of solar radiation physics including modern spectroscopic water vapor data, minor trace gases, absorbing aerosols including its effects inside cloud drops, 3-D cloud scattering effects. The model is subject to a severe test by comparing the simulated solar radiation budget with data from 34 globally distributed state-of-the art BSRN (Baseline Surface Radiation Network) land stations which began data collection in the mid 1990s. The TOA over these sites were obtained from the CERES (Cloud and Earth's Radiant Energy System) satellites. The simulated radiation budget was within 2 Wm−2 for all three components over the BSRN sites. On the other hand, over these same sites, the IPCC-2007 simulation of atmospheric absorption is smaller by 7–8 Wm−2. MACR was then used with a comprehensive set of model input from satellites to simulate global solar radiation budget. The simulated planetary albedo of 29.0% confirms the value (28.6%) observed by CERES. We estimate the atmospheric absorption to be 82 ± 8 Wm−2 to be compared with the 67 Wm−2 by IPCC models as of 2001 and updated to 76 Wm−2 by IPCC-2007. The primary reasons for the 6 Wm−2 larger solar absorption in our estimates are: updated water vapor spectroscopic database (∼1 Wm−2), inclusion of minor gases (∼0.5 Wm−2), black and brown carbon aerosols (∼4 Wm−2), the inclusion of black carbon in clouds (∼1 Wm−2) and 3-D effect of clouds (∼1 Wm−2). The fundamental deduction from our study is the remarkable consistency between satellite measurements of the radiation budget and the parameters (aerosols, clouds and surface reflectivity) which determine the radiation budget. Because of this consistency we can account for and explain the global solar radiation budget of the planet within few Wm−2.

Description: Recent observations in the inner magnetotail have shown rapid and significant flux increases (usually an order of magnitude of increase within seconds) of suprathermal electrons (tens of keV to hundreds of keV) associated with earthward moving dipolarization fronts. To explain where and how these suprathermal electrons are produced during substorm intervals, two types of acceleration models have been suggested by previous studies: acceleration that localizes near the reconnection site and acceleration that occurs during earthward transport. We perform an analytical analysis of adiabatic acceleration to show that the slope of source differential fluxes is critical for understanding adiabatic flux enhancements during earthward transport. Observationally, two earthward propagating dipolarization fronts accompanied by energetic electron flux enhancements observed by the THEMIS spacecraft have been analyzed; in each event the properties of dipolarization fronts in the inner magnetosphere (XGSM ≈ −10RE) were well correlated with those further down the tail (XGSM ≈ −15RE or XGSM ≈ −20RE). Coupled with theoretical analysis, this enables us to estimate the relative acceleration that occurred as the electrons propagated earthward between the two spacecraft. During the two events studied, the differential fluxes of supra thermal electrons had steep energy spectra with power law indices of −4 to −6.These spectra were much steeper than those at lower energy, as well as those of the supra thermal electrons observed before the fronts arrived. A compression factor of 1.5 as the electrons propagated earthward induced a flux increase of suprathermal electrons by a factor of 7 to 17. Provided these steep spectra, we demonstrate that adiabatic acceleration from the betatron and Fermi mechanisms simultaneously operating can account for these flux increases. Since both analytical analysis and data from the two events show that adiabatic acceleration during earthward transport does not significantly change the power law indices, the steep spectra were likely to be traced back to their source region, presumably near the reconnection site.

Description: The study of contrails and their impact on global climate change requires a cloud model that statistically represents contrail radiative properties. In this study, the microphysical properties of global contrails are statistically analyzed using collocated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations. The MODIS contrail pixels are detected using an automated contrail detection algorithm and a manual technique using the brightness temperature differences between the MODIS 11 and 12 μm channels. The scattering and absorption properties of typical contrail ice crystals are used to determine an appropriate contrail model to minimize the uncertainties arising from the assumptions in a particular cloud model. The depolarization ratio is simulated with a variety of ice crystal habit fractions and matched to the collocated MODIS and CALIOP observations. The contrail habit fractions are determined and used to compute the bulk-scattering properties of contrails. A parameterization of shortwave and longwave contrail optical properties is developed for the spectral bands of the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM). The contrail forcing at the top of the atmosphere is investigated using the RRTM and compared with spherical and hexagonal ice cloud models. Contrail forcing is overestimated when spherical ice crystals are used to represent contrails, but if a hexagonal ice cloud model is used, the forcing is underestimated for small particles and overestimated for large particles in comparison to the contrail model developed in this study.

Description: Compressional (Vp) and shear (Vs) wave velocities of mid-ocean-ridge basalt (MORB) was investigated at in situ high pressure and high temperature conditions of the mantle transition region by using a combination of ultrasonic and in situ x-ray measurements. Both Vp and Vs of MORB are lower than the previously predicted velocities of the major mantle mineral phases. We found that the Vp and Vs of MORB along a typical geotherm are lower by about 2 and 5%, respectively than those of seismological models, and do not match any global and regional seismological models in the deeper parts of the mantle transition region. Thus, the existence of a basaltic layer in this region is unlikely, suggesting that the oceanic crust materials are transported into the lower mantle.

Description: We report on changes in P and S-wave velocities and rock microstructure induced by devolatilization reactions using gypsum as a reference analog material. Cylindrical samples of natural alabaster were dehydrated in air, at ambient pressure, and temperatures between 378 and 423 K. Dehydration did not proceed homogeneously but via a reaction front moving sample inwards separating an outer highly porous rim from the remaining gypsum which, above approximately 393 (±5) K, concurrently decomposed into hemihydrate. Overall porosity was observed to continuously increase with reaction progress from approximately 2% for fully hydrated samples to 30% for completely dehydrated ones. Concurrently, P and S-wave velocities linearly decreased with porosity from 5.2 and 2.7 km/s to 1.0 and 0.7 km/s, respectively. It is concluded that a linearized empirical Raymer-type model extended by a critical porosity term and based on the respective time dependent mineral and pore volumes reasonably replicates the P and S-wave data in relation to reaction progress and porosity.

Description: A unique microphysical structure of rainfall is observed by the surface laser optical Particle Size and Velocity (Parsivel) disdrometers on 25 April 2011 during Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). According to the systematic differences in rainfall rate and bulk effective droplet radius, the sampling data can be divided into two groups; the rainfall mostly from the deep convective clouds has relatively high rainfall rate and large bulk effective droplet radius, whereas the reverse is true for the rainfall from the shallow warm clouds. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with spectral bin microphysics (WRF-SBM) successfully reproduces the two distinct modes in the observed rainfall microphysical structure. The results show that the up-to-date model can demonstrate how the cloud physics and the weather condition on the day are involved in forming the unique rainfall characteristic.

Description: We investigate the relationship between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and climate sensitivity across the PMIP2 multi-model ensemble of GCMs, and find a correlation between tropical temperature and climate sensitivity which is statistically significant and physically plausible. We use this relationship, together with the LGM temperature reconstruction of Annan and Hargreaves (2012), to generate estimates for the equilibrium climate sensitivity. We estimate the equilibrium climate sensitivity to be about 2.5°C with a high probability of being under 4°C, though these results are subject to several important caveats. The forthcoming PMIP3/CMIP5 models were not considered in this analysis, as very few LGM simulations are currently available from these models. We propose that these models will provide a useful validation of the correlation presented here.

Description: Ionospheric Sq current systems during unusually strong and prolonged stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events in January 2006 and January 2009 are examined by analyzing ground-magnetometer data for the American and Asian longitude sectors. During these SSW events, a significant decrease and increase of the Sq equivalent current intensity are observed in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively, along with a reduction in the longitudinal separation between the northern and southern current vortices. Numerical experiments using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General-Circulation Model show that changes in the solar anti-symmetric (2,3) semidiurnal tide can bring about similar changes in the Sq current system.

Description: Eddies and vortices associated with breaking waves rapidly disperse pollution, nutrients, and terrestrial material along the coast. Although theory and numerical models suggest that vorticity is generated near the ends of a breaking wave crest, this hypothesis has not been tested in the field. Here we report the first observations of wave-generated vertical vorticity (e.g., horizontal eddies), and find that individual short-crested breaking waves generate significant vorticity [O(0.01 s−1)] in the surfzone. Left- and right-handed wave ends generate vorticity of opposite sign, consistent with theory. In contrast to theory, the observed vorticity also increases inside the breaking crest, possibly owing to onshore advection of vorticity generated at previous stages of breaking or from the shape of the breaking region. Short-crested breaking transferred energy from incident waves to lower frequency rotational motions that are a primary mechanism for dispersion near the shoreline.

Description: In order to probe the subsurface dynamics associated with geyser eruptions, we measured ground deformation at Old Faithful Geyser of Calistoga, CA. We present a physical model in which recharge during the period preceding an eruption is driven by pressure differences relative to the aquifer supplying the geyser. The model predicts that pressure and ground deformation are characterized by an exponential function of time, consistent with our observations. The geyser's conduit is connected to a reservoir at a depth of at least 42 m, and pressure changes in the reservoir can produce the observed ground deformations through either a poroelastic or elastic mechanical model.

Description: Extratropical cyclones are often associated with heavy precipitation events and can have major socio-economic impacts. This study investigates how much of the total precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere is associated with extratropical cyclones. An objective feature tracking algorithm is used to locate cyclones and the precipitation associated with these cyclones is quantified to establish their contribution to total precipitation. Climatologies are produced from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) daily dataset and the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The magnitude and spatial distribution of cyclone associated precipitation and their percentage contribution to total precipitation is closely comparable in both datasets. In some regions, the contribution of extratropical cyclones exceeds 90/85% of the total DJF/JJA precipitation climatology. The relative contribution of the most intensely precipitating storms to total precipitation is greater in DJF than JJA. The most intensely precipitating 10% of storms contribute over 20% of total storm associated precipitation in DJF, whereas they provide less than 15% of this total in JJA.

Description: Shatsky Rise is a Large Igneous Province (LIP) currently located in the northwestern Pacific. New downhole magnetic logging data from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Hole U1347A at Tamu Massif of Shatsky Rise captured the magnetic architecture in the uppermost lava sequence, providing a rare opportunity to investigate a time series of the intra-plate volcanism in conjunction with the Pacific plate construction history centered at the triple junction. Logging data results indicate that Tamu Massif was formed during normal polarity periods south of the paleoequator and crossed the equator at some point in the M19–M17 period. Combining these new observations with previous interpretations of the massif's tectonic history, a time series of the latitudinal tectonic motion of a LIP and the underlying Pacific plate during the plateau formation is postulated.

Description: It is shown that a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution typical of that used in operational numerical weather prediction is able to simulate non-gaussian probability distributions associated with the climatology of quasi-persistent Euro-Atlantic weather regimes. The spatial patterns of these simulated regimes are remarkably accurate. By contrast, the same model, integrated at a resolution more typical of current climate models, shows no statistically significant evidence of such non-gaussian regime structures, and the spatial structure of the corresponding clusters are not accurate. Hence, whilst studies typically show incremental improvements in first and second moments of climatological distributions of the large-scale flow with increasing model resolution, here a real step change in the higher-order moments is found. It is argued that these results have profound implications for the ability of high resolution limited-area models, forced by low resolution global models, to simulate reliably, regional climate change signals.

Description: Various seismicity patterns before large earthquakes have been reported in the literature. They include foreshocks (medium-term acceleration and short-term activation), quiescence, doughnut patterns and event migration. The existence of these precursory patterns is however debated. Here, we develop an approach based on the concept of stress accumulation to unify and categorize all claimed seismic precursors in a same physical framework. We first extend the Non-Critical Precursory Accelerating Seismicity Theory (N-C PAST), which already explains most precursors, to additionally include short-term activation. Theoretical results are then compared to the time series observed prior to the 2009 Mw = 6.3 L'Aquila, Italy, earthquake. We finally show that different precursory paths are possible before large earthquakes, with possible coupling of different patterns or non-occurrence of any. This is described by a logic tree defined from the combined probabilities of occurrence of the mainshock at a given stress state and of precursory silent slip on the fault. In the case of the L'Aquila earthquake, the observed precursory path is coupling of quiescence and accelerating seismic release, followed by activation. These results provide guidelines for future research on earthquake predictability.

Description: Seasonal forecasts of the September 2012 Arctic sea ice thickness and extent are conducted starting from 1 June 2012. An ensemble of forecasts is made with a coupled ice-ocean model. For the first time, observations of the ice thickness are used to correct the initial ice thickness distribution to improve the initial conditions. Data from two airborne campaigns are used: NASA Operation IceBridge and SIZONet. The model was advanced through April and May using reanalysis data from 2012 and for June–September it was forced with reanalysis data from the previous seven summers. The ice extent in the corrected runs averaged lower in the Pacific sector and higher in the Atlantic sector compared to control runs with no corrections. The predicted total ice extent is 4.4 +/− 0.5 M km2, 0.2 M km2 less than that made with the control runs but 0.8 M km2 higher than the observed September extent.

Description: We investigate the relationship between large-scale atmospheric flow and the evolution of the most extreme windstorms affecting Western Continental Europe. The 25 most destructive Western Continental European wind storms are selected from a 43-year climatology. 22 of these storms are grouped as having a similar trajectory and evolution. We show that these storms typically occur during particularly strong and persistent positive NAO anomalies which peak approximately 2 days before the storms' peak intensity; the NAO pattern then shifts eastward to a position over the European continent when the storms strike Europe. A temporal composite of potential temperature on the 2-PVU surface suggests that this NAO shift is the result of simultaneous cyclonic and anticyclonic wave breaking penetrating further to the east than during a typical high-NAO event. This creates an extremely intense, zonally-orientated jet over the North Atlantic whose baroclinicity favours explosive intensification of storms while steering them into Western Continental Europe.

Description: The simultaneous measurements of vertical velocity and cloud droplet size distributions in cumuli collected during the RACORO field campaign over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's Southern Great Plains site near Lamont, Oklahoma, US, are analyzed to determine the effects of vertical velocity on droplet number concentration, relative dispersion (the ratio of standard deviation to mean radius), and their relationship. The results show that with increasing vertical velocity the droplet number concentration increases while the relative dispersion decreases. The data also exhibit a negative correlation between relative dispersion and droplet number concentration. These empirical relationships can be fitted well with power law functions. This observational study confirms the theoretical and numerical expectations of the effects of vertical velocity on cloud microphysics by analyzing the data of vertical velocity directly. The effects of vertical velocity on relative dispersion and its relationship with droplet number concentration are opposite to that associated with aerosol loading, posing a confounding challenge for separating aerosol indirect effects from dynamical effects.

Description: Proxy records indicate that export production was enhanced at the onset of the last glaciation. We examine how glacial cooling affects marine export production through temperature-dependent phytoplankton productivity and organic carbon remineralization using glacial climate simulation. Compared with the standard assumption of no temperature dependence as applied in existing paleoclimate models, including temperature-dependence enhances export production globally under glacial climate conditions. The near freezing temperatures of Antarctic seawater significantly reduce organic carbon remineralization. Less remineralization than production results in increasing carbon export to the deep ocean. Nutrients remaining near the surface at high latitudes are advected to lower latitudes via Antarctic Intermediate Water, enhancing primary production, and hence export, in temperate and tropical regions as well. Including temperature-dependence improves the model's agreement with the glacial proxy records of export production and stable carbon isotopes even under stably stratified conditions with a weakening of North Atlantic Deep Water.

Description: The extreme ultraviolet (EUV) imager on the IMAGE satellite provided the first global images of the plasmasphere leading to enhanced understanding of plasmapause structure and dynamics. However, few studies have investigated the structure and dynamics of the inner plasmasphere (regions interior to the plasmapause), which previous in situ observations have shown to often be highly structured. This study is the first to systematically analyze global images of the density structure of the inner plasmasphere by using data from the EUV imager on the IMAGE satellite. We find that the inner plasmasphere exhibits both fine and meso-scale structure characterized by rapid density fluctuations and density enhancements of varying amplitudes (factors of ∼ 2–5) and spatial scales (from 10 s of minutes to 6 hours MLT) that occur regularly in the aftermath of geomagnetic storms. The level of variability within the azimuthal structure was found to increase with increasing geomagnetic activity. The observations suggest that some meso-scale azimuthal density structure observed in the inner plasmasphere is from “fossil” plasmapause features entrained inside the expanding and refilling plasmasphere.

Description: A new empirical model of radiation-belt electrons in the low-Earth-orbit region has been developed based upon decade-long in situ observations from several low-altitude-orbiting satellites. This model—LEEM—aims to provide the electron environment conditions that a satellite would encounter in a given low Earth orbit. This model presents electron flux values for five energy ranges (0.03–2.5 MeV, 0.1–2.5 MeV, 0.3–2.5 MeV, 1.5–6 MeV, and 2.5–14 MeV) within the space below an altitude of ∼600 km. Compared to the de-facto standard empirical model of AE-8, this model not only has a better data coverage in this specific region, but also can provide statistical information on flux levels such as worst cases and occurrence percentiles instead of solely mean values. The comparison indicates that the AE-8 model not only highly overpredicts the fluxes in the inner belt region in most cases, especially for the MeV electrons, which cannot be accounted for by the widely quoted error factor of 2 for AE-8, but also is unable to reflect the observed orders of magnitude variations in electron intensities. The LEEM model is carefully validated with both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. The characteristic electron environments along the International Space Station track and other virtual orbits are given as examples and as a demonstration of the use of the model.

Description: The ionosphere response resulting from minimum solar activity during cycle 23/24 was unusual and offered unique opportunities for investigating space weather in the near-Earth environment. We report ultra low frequency electric field signatures related to the ionospheric Alfvén resonator detected by the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite in the equatorial region. These signatures are used to constrain ionospheric empirical models and offer a new approach for monitoring ionosphere dynamics and space weather phenomena, namely aeronomy processes, Alfvén wave propagation, and troposphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling mechanisms.

Description: Can the magnitude of a giant earthquake be estimated from paleoseismological data alone? Attempts to estimate the size of the Jogan earthquake of AD 869, whose tsunami affected much of the same coast as the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, offers an excellent opportunity to address this question, which is fundamental to assessing earthquake and tsunami hazards at subduction zones. Between 2004 and 2010, examining stratigraphy at 399 locations beneath paddy fields along 180 km of coast mainly south of Sendai, we learned that a tsunami deposit associated with the AD 869 Jogan earthquake had run inland at least 1.5 km across multiple coastal lowlands, and that one of the lowlands had subsided during the Jogan earthquake and an earlier earthquake as well. Radiocarbon ages just below/above sand deposits left by the pre-Jogan tsunamis suggested recurrence intervals in the range of 500 to 800 years. Modeling inundation and subsidence, we estimated size of the Jogan earthquake as moment magnitude 8.4 or larger and a fault rupture area 200 km long. We did not consider a longer rupture, like the one in 2011, because coastal landform and absence of a volcanic ash layer make any Jogan layer difficult to identify along the Sanriku coast. Still, Sendai tsunami geology might have reduced casualties by improving evacuation maps and informing public-awareness campaigns.

Description: Recurring Slope Lineae (RSL) are small scale seasonal flow features identified by Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter that present several interesting characteristics such as an albedo contrast, seasonal dependence, and a strong preference for equator-facing slopes. All of these characteristics strongly suggest a thermally driven mechanism such as a liquid triggered or dominated flow. Here we investigate the possibility that these features are formed by melting of brines of various compositions via a combination of thermodynamic and kinetic numerical models. Results suggest that a solution with a freezing temperature of ∼223 K can best reproduce the observed seasonality. Relatively high surface evaporation rates at the RSL locations make the flows quickly disappear over a single season. Our model reproduces well the seasonality of RSL and can explain the preference for equator-facing slopes suggesting that brine flows, and therefore liquids, are possible on a small time and space scale today on Mars. However, if the RSL are indeed formed by brines, it may indicate that a recharge mechanism is active in order to maintain a source of brine over even short geological timescales, which would have important implications for the Martian water cycle.

Description: Sea ice core chlorophyll a data are used to describe the seasonal, regional and vertical distribution of algal biomass in Southern Ocean pack ice. The Antarctic Sea Ice Processes and Climate – Biology (ASPeCt – Bio) circumpolar dataset consists of 1300 ice cores collected during 32 cruises over a period of 25 years. The analyses show that integrated sea ice chlorophyll a peaks in early spring and late austral summer, which is consistent with theories on light and nutrient limitation. The results indicate that on a circum-Antarctic scale, surface, internal and bottom sea ice layers contribute equally to integrated biomass, but vertical distribution shows distinct differences among six regions around the continent. The vertical distribution of sea ice algal biomass depends on sea ice thickness, with surface communities most commonly associated with thin ice (

Description: Dynamic triggering around the Fangshan Pluton near Beijing is repeatedly identified. Here we report clear triggered events in this region during the surface waves of the 2012 Mw8.6 Sumatra earthquake. However, we do not find any triggered events during the G2 waves of the Mw8.6 event, and the surface waves of the Mw8.2 Sumatra earthquake that occurred two hours later. The peak ground velocities of the 2012 Mw8.2 event are around the apparent triggering threshold of 0.1–0.2 cm/s in this region. Hence, the fact that this event did not trigger does not require an influence of elapsed time since last trigger (the Mw8.6 mainshock), but is consistent with it. The lack of triggering during the G2 wave of the 2012 Mw8.6 mainshock may be caused by relatively weak surface-wave signals in the intermediate period of 100–10 s.

Description: We use 2006–2009 ALOS Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data over the entire west Sunda arc, Indonesia, home of 13% of the world's active volcanoes, to derive arc-wide time-dependent ground deformation data. We present unambiguous evidence of inflation at six volcanoes, three of which erupted after the observation period. We show that these volcanoes have shallow magma reservoirs at ∼1–3 km depth below the average regional elevation. A global comparison of reservoir depths at arc volcanoes suggests that volcanoes in extensional and strike-slip settings (west Sunda) can develop shallow reservoirs whereas volcanoes in compressional settings may lack them. Thus, magma ascend through the upper crust could be influenced by intra-arc tectonic settings.

Description: We present visible and thermal infrared observations of the Martian surface acquired during three Phobos transits. Observations show a decrease of up to ∼20% of the reflected solar energy, consistent with the fraction of the Sun disk eclipsed by Phobos, and no measurable surface cooling. Thermal modeling indicates that the top millimeter of the regolith has a thermal inertia larger than 100 J m−2 K−1 s−1/2 regardless of the surface morphology, and is consistent with TES regional thermal inertia values derived from diurnal cycles (e.g. ∼200 J m−2 K−1 s−1/2). The thermophysical properties of the top millimeter of the regolith exclude the presence of widespread thermally-thick dust layers, are consistent with those of the diurnal skin depths at TES and THEMIS spatial resolutions, are in accordance with high-resolution images of the surface showing no surface mantling, with General Circulation Model results, thermally derived rock abundance values, albedo, and spectroscopic data.

Description: Long-lasting mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) may occur in the outer region of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific, especially in conjunction with the southwest monsoon as in the case of Typhoon Morakot that caused great flooding and landslides in Taiwan. These “outer-MCSs” are linear convective systems that develop from distant rainbands, have a large cold cloud shield, and last more than six hours. These outer-MCSs are important for typhoon rainfall forecasting because of the torrential rainfall when they interact with land and terrain to produce serious flooding that is separate from the rainfall near the center. A total of 109 outer-MCSs that occurred during 1999–2009 are identified using infrared and passive microwave images. About 22% of all typhoons in the western North Pacific have at least one outer-MCS during their life cycle. In 85% of the QuikSCAT oceanic 10-m wind observations of outer-MCSs, positive shear vorticity on the left side of mesoscale surface jets below the stratiform precipitation regions may be contributing to the continuous formation of new convective cells.

Description: This paper reports the existence of plasma caves, minima in the electron density located at 5–10° to the magnetic equator, in the bottomside ionosphere based on electron densities simulations from the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2007) and clear evidences given by plasma density and drift measurements of the Dynamic Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite during 1981–1983. The IRI simulations suggest plasma caves as daytime features (08:00–19:00 LT; length of 18,158 km in the longitudinal direction), that range from the E region up to about 300 km altitude with 10° (or 1100 km) width in the latitudinal direction. In situ measurements of the ion and electron densities probed by the DE 2 confirm the existence of the plasma caves at low altitudes of the EIA ionosphere. The unexpected downward and upward (or weakly and strongly upward) ion drifts at the magnetic equator and the two off equators seem to play an important role responsible for the plasma cave formation.

Description: The interaction between interplanetary shocks and the Earth's magnetosphere manifests in many important space physics phenomena including particle acceleration. We investigated the response of the inner magnetospheric hydrogen and oxygen ions to a strong interplanetary shock impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere. Both hydrogen and oxygen ions are found to be heated/accelerated significantly with their temperature enhanced by a factor of two and three immediately after ∼1 min and ∼12 min of the shock arrival respectively. Multiple energy dispersion signatures of ions were found in the parallel and anti-parallel direction to the magnetic field immediately after the interplanetary shock impact. The energy dispersions in the anti-parallel direction preceded those in the parallel direction. Multiple dispersion signatures can be explained by the flux modulations of local ions (rather than the ions from the Earth's ionosphere) by ULF waves. It is found that the energy spectrum from 10 eV to ∼40 keV are highly correlated with the cross product of observed ULF wave electric and magnetic field (V = (E × B)/B2), which indicate that both cold plasmaspheric plasma and hot thermal ions (10 eV to ∼40 keV) are accelerated and decelerated with the various phases of ULF wave electric field. We then demonstrate that ion acceleration due to the interplanetary shock compression on the Earth's magnetic field is rather limited, whereas the major contribution to acceleration comes from the electric field carried by ULF waves via drift-bounce resonance for both the hydrogen and oxygen ions. The integrated hydrogen and oxygen ion flux with the poloidal mode ULF waves are highly coherent (〉0.9) whereas the coherence with the toroidal mode ULF waves is negligible, implying that the poloidal mode ULF waves are much more efficient in accelerating hydrogen and oxygen ions in the inner magnetosphere than the toroidal mode ULF waves. The duration of high coherence for oxygen ions with the poloidal mode ULF wave is longer than that for hydrogen ions, indicating that oxygen ions can be heated/accelerated more efficiently by the poloidal mode ULF wave induced by the interplanetary shock.

Description: We present a generalized multipoint analysis of physical quantities, such as magnetic field and plasma flow, based on spatial gradient properties, where the multipoint data may be taken by irregular (distorted) configurations of any number of spacecraft. The methodology is modified from a previous, fully 3-D gradient analysis technique, designed to apply strictly to 4-point measurements and to be stable for regular spacecraft configurations. Here, we adapt the method to be tolerant against distorted configurations and to return a partial result when fewer spacecraft measurements are available. We apply the method to a variety of important physical quantities, such as the electric current density and the vorticity of plasma flows based on Cluster and THEMIS multiple-point measurements. The method may also have valuable applications on the coming Swarm mission.

Description: When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is dawnward or duskward, magnetic merging between the IMF and the geomagnetic field occurs near the cusp on the dayside flanks of the magnetosphere. While these periods are usually considered “quiet,” they can lead to intense localized energy deposition into the dayside ionosphere. We analyze two intervals during the geomagnetic storm on 24 August 2005: one with steady duskward IMF and one with steady dawnward IMF. Using outputs from the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) and data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, we show that intense Joule heating exists on fast ionospheric flow channels which lie on open field lines. In addition, the flow channels on open field lines have large components in the sunward direction and therefore resist the bulk solar wind and magnetosheath flow. We compare observed velocities with predicted reconnection jet speeds using magnetosheath and cusp parameters from an MHD simulation. Results suggest that the fast ionospheric flow corresponds to portions of the reconnection jet populated by low-density plasma. The importance of ionospheric conductance in determining the ionospheric flow is also discussed.

Description: We report multipoint observations of daytime tweek atmospherics during the solar eclipse of 22 July 2009. Sixteen and sixty-three tweek atmospherics were observed at Moshiri and Kagoshima, Japan, where the magnitudes of the solar eclipse were 0.458 and 0.966, respectively. This was the first observation of tweek atmospherics during a low-magnitude eclipse (0.458). The average and standard deviation of the reflection height were 94.9 ± 13.7 km at Moshiri and 87.2 ± 12.9 km at Kagoshima. The reflection height at Moshiri was almost the same as that for normal nighttime conditions in July (96.7 ± 12.6 km) in spite of the low magnitude of the eclipse. The reflection height at Kagoshima seems be divided into two parts: propagation across the total solar eclipse path and propagation in the partial solar eclipse path. During the eclipse, we also observed the phase variation in the LF transmitter signals. The average change in the phase delay of the LF signals was 109° for the paths that crossed the eclipse path and 27° for the paths that did not cross the eclipse path. Assuming a normal daytime height for LF waves of 65 km, a ray tracing analysis indicates that the variations in phase correspond to a height increase of 5–6 km for the paths across the eclipse and 1–2 km for partial eclipse paths. The wide range of estimated tweek reflection heights at Kagoshima also suggests a difference in electron density in the lower ionosphere between total and partial solar eclipses.

Description: We have quantitatively investigated the radiation belt dynamic variations of 1.5–6.0 MeV electrons during 54 coronal mass ejection (CME)–driven storms from 1993 to 2003 and 26 corotating interaction region (CIR)–driven recurrent storms in 1995 by utilizing case and statistical studies based on the data from the SAMPEX satellite. It is found that the boundaries determined by fitting an exponential to the flux as a function of L shell obtained in this study agree with the observed outer and inner boundaries of the outer radiation belt. Furthermore, we have constructed the radiation belt content (RBC) index by integrating the number density of electrons between those inner and outer boundaries. According to the ratio of the maximum RBC index during the recovery phase to the prestorm average RBC index, we conclude that CME-driven storms produce more relativistic electrons than CIR-driven storms in the entire outer radiation belt, although the relativistic electron fluxes during CIR-related storms are much higher than those during CME-related storms at geosynchronous orbit.

Description: We analyze 1977–2010 trends in atmospheric mercury (Hg) from 21 ship cruises over the North Atlantic (NA) and 15 over the South Atlantic (SA). We find a steep 1990–2009 decline of −0.046 ± 0.010 ng m−3 a−1 (−2.5% a−1) over the NA (steeper than at Northern Hemispheric land sites) but no significant decline over the SA. Surface water Hg0 measurements in the NA show a decline of −5.7% a−1 since 1999, and limited subsurface ocean data show an ∼80% decline from 1980 to present. We use a coupled global atmosphere-ocean model to show that the decline in NA atmospheric concentrations can be explained by decreasing oceanic evasion from the NA driven by declining subsurface water Hg concentrations. We speculate that this large historical decline of Hg in the NA Ocean could have been caused by decreasing Hg inputs from rivers and wastewater and by changes in the oxidant chemistry of the atmospheric marine boundary layer.

Description: In Alaska, where many active volcanoes exist without ground-based instrumentation, the use of techniques suitable for distant monitoring is pivotal. In this study we report regional-scale seismic and infrasound observations of volcanic activity at Mt. Cleveland between December 2011 and August 2012. During this period, twenty explosions were detected by infrasound sensors as far away as 1827 km from the active vent, and ground-coupled acoustic waves were recorded at seismic stations across the Aleutian Arc. Several events resulting from the explosive disruption of small lava domes within the summit crater were confirmed by analysis of satellite remote sensing data. However, many explosions eluded initial, automated, analyses of satellite data due to poor weather conditions. Infrasound and seismic monitoring provided effective means for detecting these hidden events. We present results from the implementation of automatic infrasound and seismo-acoustic eruption detection algorithms, and review the challenges of real-time volcano monitoring operations in remote regions. We also model acoustic propagation in the Northern Pacific, showing how tropospheric ducting effects allow infrasound to travel long distances across the Aleutian Arc. The successful results of our investigation provide motivation for expanded efforts in infrasound monitoring across the Aleutians and contributes to our knowledge of the number and style of vulcanian eruptions at Mt. Cleveland.

Description: In this paper, we study for the first time the daytime vertical E × B drift velocities from Gadanki and Kototabang using the Doppler shifts of the 150-km echoes observed during 2008–2010, a period of low solar activity. Drift velocities are mostly positive and confined to 35 m s−1 at both the locations, except for Gadanki where on a few occasions negative drift velocities have been observed in the afternoon hours. Drift velocities generally show a decreasing trend with local time and the largest drift is generally observed in the forenoon hours consistent with extensively reported observations and models of E × B drift. Drift velocities from Gadanki and Kototabang compared exceeding well on some days and differed remarkably on many days despite the fact that they are longitudinally separated by only 20°. The day-to-day variation in the drift velocity could be as high as 15 m s−1 at Gadanki and 7 m s−1 at Kototabang. Seasonal mean drifts over Gadanki are found to be generally larger than those of Kototabang. The observations have been compared in detail with those reported earlier based on ground- and satellite- based observations and also with the Scherliess-Fejer model. The observed differences in the drifts at the two locations, including the downward drifts, have been discussed in the light of current understanding of the longitudinal variability of E × B drift.

Description: For decades, whistlers observed on the ground at mid and high latitudes have been used for diagnostics of Earth's plasmasphere. Whistlers have also been observed at low latitudes however, the propagation characteristics of low latitude whistlers are poorly understood thus they have not been used effectively as a diagnostic for the low latitude ionosphere. One key limitation with past studies has been lack of knowledge of the whistler source lightning location. Here we present the first cases of low latitude ground whistlers most likely linked with their causative lightning discharges in the conjugate zone. The Global Lightning Dataset 360 (GLD360) detected lightning discharges were found to be located close to the conjugate location of the recording stations, providing direct evidence of inter-hemispheric propagation at the low latitudes. A total of 864 whistlers were observed at Allahabad, India (Geomag. lat. 16.05°N; Geomag. long. 155.34°E; L = 1.08) during the night of 26 January 2011. Using GLD360 network data, we show the occurrence of thunderstorm activity between 200 and 450 km from the conjugate point of Allahabad. We also report the distribution of peak currents of whistler-producing lightning, which demonstrate a cutoff at 30 kA.

Description: While the outer radiation belt (3.5 〈 L 〈 8.0) is highly variable with respect to geomagnetic activity, the inner radiation belt (1.2 〈 L 〈 2.0) is relatively stable. Less attention has been paid to the inner electron belt in recent years. It has been generally accepted that the equilibrium structure of radiation belt electrons is explained by the slow inward radial diffusion from a source in the outer belt and losses by Coulomb collision and wave-particle interaction. In this study, we examine this well accepted theory using the radial profiles of the phase space density (PSD), inferred from in situ measurements made by three different satellites: S3–3, CRRES, and POLAR. Our results show that electron PSD in the inner electron belt has a clear prominent local peak and negative radial gradient in the outer portion of the inner zone, i.e., decreasing PSD with increasing L-value. A likely explanation for the peaks in PSD is acceleration due to energy diffusion produced by lightning-generated and anthropogenic whistlers. These results indicate that either additional local acceleration mechanism is responsible for the formation of the inner electron belt or inner electron belt is formed by sporadic injections of electrons into the inner zone. The currently well accepted model of slow diffusion and losses will be further examined by the upcoming Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) mission.

Description: Statistical observations by the THEMIS spacecraft show a dawn-dusk asymmetry in plasma parameters within the Earth's magnetosheath. Proton density and temperature are greater on the dawnside while the magnetic field strength and bulk flow are greater on the duskside. The asymmetry has been measured just outside the magnetopause in the dayside magnetosheath through 1114 boundary crossings from 2008 through 2010. These results are compared with modeling from the BATS-R-US global MHD code and are consistent with the expected asymmetries that would result from the interactions of the Parker spiral interplanetary magnetic field with the Earth's bow shock. Solar cycle variations are analyzed for the current and past studies to predict the influence of upstream conditions during different time periods.

Description: Statistical maps of small-scale electric field variability in the high-latitude ionosphere are derived for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres using 48 months of data from the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN). Maps of variability magnitude (from scales of 45–450 km and 2–20 min) are derived for a range of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientations and dipole tilt angles (the angle between the best fit dipole axis and the plane perpendicular to the Sun-Earth line). It is found that the observed spatial distribution of average variability is significantly modified as the IMF and dipole tilt conditions change. Under negative (winter-like) and neutral (equinox-like) dipole tilt angles, variability is concentrated in the auroral and dayside cusp regions, and the spatial distributions of variability appear to be correlated to those of large- and small-scale field-aligned currents (FACs). Additionally, variability on the nightside is found to be more enhanced in the downward FAC region than it is in the upward FAC region. Under positive (summer-like) dipole tilt angles, the average variability magnitudes across the high-latitude regions are smaller than those observed under negative dipole tilt angles, and the spatial distributions are more uniform. These dipole tilt effects suggest that scale-size- and conductivity-dependent field-aligned potential drops and conductivity-dependent changes in the processes that generate variability are possible factors that impact the observed small-scale electric field variability. In general, Southern Hemisphere maps appear very similar to Northern Hemisphere maps, although some minor differences are observed that may result from interhemispheric asymmetries in the geomagnetic field.

Description: The composition of ions plays a crucial role for the fundamental plasma properties in the terrestrial magnetosphere. We investigate the oxygen-to-hydrogen ratio in the near-Earth magnetosphere from −10 RE 274 keV O+ ion intensities, relative to the corresponding hydrogen intensities; (3) In contrast to ∼10 keV ions, the 〉274 keV O+ ions show the strongest acceleration during growth phase and not during the expansion phase itself. This suggests a connection between the energy input to the magnetosphere and the effective energization of energetic ions during growth phase; (4) The ratio between quiet and disturbed times for the intensities of ion ionospheric outflow is similar to those observed in the near-Earth magnetosphere at 〉274 keV. Therefore, the increase of the energetic ion intensity during disturbed time is likely due to the intensification and the effective acceleration of the ionospheric source. In conclusion, the energization process in the near-Earth magnetosphere is mass dependent and it is more effective for the heavier ions.

Description: During high-speed stream (HSS) events the solar wind speed increases, and the cross polar cap potential increases, leading to increased Joule heating at high latitudes. The heat input at high latitudes heats the polar regions, which then conducts to lower latitudes, producing global heating. The heating occurs during the risetime of the cross polar cap potential and throughout the period of high cross polar cap potential as seen in our simulation. These simulations are performed using the Utah State University global thermosphere model driven by Joule heating rates that are consistent with electric fields observed by DMSP-15 observations of HSS events. Cooling occurs as the cross polar cap potential decreases and continues for several days after the cross polar cap potential has returned to background values. Polar cap ionospheric observations are compared to model simulations of heating and cooling, providing evidence that the thermospheric model is capturing the HSS energy input and the post-HSS multiday return to pre-HSS conditions. The HSS heating can be as high as 100 K (as seen from both the model and the data) at high latitudes, with a corresponding, but lower, global increase in thermospheric temperature.

Description: This study investigates the statistical significance of the trends of station temperature time series from the European Climate Assessment & Data archive poleward of 60°N. The trends are identified by different methods and their significance is assessed by three different null models of climate noise. All stations show a warming trend but only 17 out of the 109 considered stations have trends which cannot be explained as arising from intrinsic climate fluctuations when tested against any of the three null models. Out of those 17, only one station exhibits a warming trend which is significant against all three null models. The stations with significant warming trends are located mainly in Scandinavia and Iceland.

Description: Flux ropes have long been observed in the upper atmosphere of Venus and more recently at Mars. Here we present magnetic field measurements of flux ropes encountered at the southern terminator of Mars by Mars Global Surveyor and compare them to a flux rope model. This allows several parameters of each rope to be inferred. Remarkably similar flux ropes are met repeatedly at the southern terminator over a period of the Martian year, when strong crustal magnetic fields are upstream of their position, indicating that they are most likely stationary and attached to the upstream crustal fields. A mechanism is described that could produce the observed flux ropes.

Description: On 5 April 2010 a series of energetic electron injections, acceleration, and loss events appeared to induce an operational anomaly in the Galaxy 15 geosynchronous communications satellite. We describe the energetic electron precipitation conditions leading to the anomaly. A few hours prior to the anomaly electron acceleration at 〉0.6 MeV, and loss at 〉30 keV, were observed simultaneously. The acceleration took place in the region of the Galaxy 15 satellite on the nightside and the precipitation of electrons primarily on the dayside. The precipitation was confined to L-shells outside of the plasmapause and appeared to be driven by chorus waves via a weak diffusion process. An hour prior to the anomaly, a solar wind shock event generated a few minutes of 30–150 keV electron precipitation but only on the dayside, over a large L-shell range (4.8 〈 L 〈 13). The timing of the precipitation burst was consistent with electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves seen on the dayside, but the high geomagnetic latitude of the precipitation suggests that EMIC wave growth associated with high cold density regions in the plasmasphere is unlikely to have played a role. A substorm injection event shortly after the shock appears to have ultimately triggered the upset on Galaxy 15. However, the peak 〉30 keV electron precipitation fluxes of 1.35 × 107 el cm−2 s−1 sr−1 were roughly the same level as other large substorm events previously analyzed, indicating either a sensitivity to the energetic electron environment prior to the event or that the satellite was in a vulnerable situation.

Description: We investigate the effects of solar energetic particle (SEP) events on the Martian ionosphere using observations from the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Electron Reflectometer (ER) and Radio Science (RS) experiments. Although MGS/ER is not designed to measure solar storm particles, it detects SEPs as increased instrument background. Using this proxy for SEP fluxes near Mars, we compare electron density profiles obtained from the RS experiment during periods of high and low SEP activity. Six case studies show no clear evidence for an increase in the ionospheric electron density between 200 and 100 km altitudes. However, 4 of the 6 events show a small increase in electron density below 100 km altitude during SEP events, suggesting that high-energy (10–20 keV) electrons may cause ionization in the lower ionosphere. We also observe an ∼25% decrease in the ionospheric electron density between ∼100 and ∼120 km altitude for the two strongest events, suggesting that SEPs trigger a process that increases electron loss in this altitude range of the lower ionosphere. However, we cannot be confident from only two events that this effect is caused directly or indirectly by increased SEP fluxes. A statistical study confirms the case study results, but not over all solar zenith angles. Additionally, we observe depletions in the topside ionospheric electron density at some solar zenith angles, which can be explained by compression of the ionosphere by the passing CME.

Description: We present the first high resolution, approximately ∼4 years sample spacing, precipitation record from northeastern Brazil (hereafter referred to as ‘Nordeste’) covering the last ∼3000 yrs from 230Th-dated stalagmites oxygen isotope records. Our record shows abrupt fluctuations in rainfall tied to variations in the intensity of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), including the periods corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA), the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and an event around 2800 yr B.P. Unlike other monsoon records in southern tropical South America, dry conditions prevailed during the LIA in the Nordeste. Our record suggests that the region is currently undergoing drought conditions that are unprecedented over the past 3 millennia, rivaled only by the LIA period. Using spectral, wavelet and cross-wavelet analyses we show that changes in SASM activity in the region are mainly associated with variations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and to a lesser degree caused by fluctuations in tropical Pacific SST. Our record also shows a distinct periodicity around 210 years, which has been linked to solar variability.

Description: Radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) play a key role in shaping the thermal structure of the Martian atmosphere. In this paper, RAC are implemented in the LMD Mars Global Climate Model (GCM) and the simulated temperatures are compared to Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations over a full year. RAC change the temperature gradients and global dynamics of the atmosphere and this change in dynamics in turn implies large-scale adiabatic temperature changes. Therefore, clouds have both a direct and indirect effect on atmospheric temperatures. RAC successfully reduce major GCM temperature biases, especially in the regions of formation of the aphelion cloud belt where a cold bias of more than 10 K is corrected. Departures from the observations are however seen in the polar regions, and highlight the need for better modeling of cloud formation and evolution.

Description: In this paper we compare and contrast chorus, electron cyclotron harmonics (ECH), and Z mode emissions observed at Jupiter and Saturn and relate them to recent work on electron acceleration at Earth. Intense chorus emissions are observed near the magnetic equator, the likely source region, but the strongest intensities are on either side of the magnetic equator. Chorus intensities at Jupiter are generally about an order of magnitude larger than at Saturn, and the bandwidth of chorus at Jupiter can reach 7 or 8 kHz (∼0.6 fc), while at Saturn it is typically

Description: Polarizations of Pi2 pulsations in the magnetosphere and on the ground in the auroral zone are inconsistent when field line motions in the meridian and transverse planes are both in the fundamental harmonic. To resolve these inconsistencies, we propose a third harmonic mode in the meridian planes. The excitation of the third harmonic is explained by dusk-to-dawn currents at the equatorial plane, which are driven by diamagnetic currents during substorm injections. We propose diamagnetic currents in the equatorial plane and compressional input at the outer boundary as the source of Pi2 pulsations in the magnetosphere.

Description: The relationship between monoenergetic electron acceleration and broadband electron acceleration is uncertain, although some have speculated that the latter is a temporal transient, and may evolve into the former. Here we have taken advantage of DMSP satellite coincidences to investigate the issue. We consider 1668 cases where one DMSP satellite observed an electron acceleration event covering at least 2 s, hence as many discrete accelerated spectra, and a second satellite subsequently observed an electron acceleration at the same location. The spatial coincidence required was tight, with a maximum separation of 0.1° magnetic latitude and 0.15 h magnetic local time. Time separations of 0–10 min were considered in 1 min bins, with auroral acceleration flagged as either monoenergetic, broadband, or a mixture of both. Within the first temporal bin (0–1 min), the second satellite had a high probability of observing the same type of aurora as the first, establishing consistency. When the first satellite observed monoenergetic aurora, the second satellite also observed monoenergetic aurora (about 80% of the time), and this continued to up to about 10 min of UT separation. In most of the other 20% of the cases, the second satellite also recorded monoenergetic acceleration but with an additional mixture of broadband acceleration. Thus monoenergetic aurora does not seem to typically evolve on a time scale of minutes. However, when the first satellite encounter was with broadband acceleration, the second encounter was highly time-dependent, with broadband dominating the second satellite encounter only in the 0–1 min bin. Between 1 and 5 min, the probability of observing a mixture of auroral types jumped, and after 6 min, the auroral acceleration was nearly as likely to be monoenergetic as broadband. Finally, if the first satellite encountered a mixture of acceleration, the second encounter was progressively more likely to be entirely monoenergetic aurora as time increased. These results are consistent with the idea that broadband aurora may be inherently a transient, and often progresses to monoenergetic aurora, while the latter is quasi-static.

Description: The Far-Ultraviolet Imager on the IMAGE spacecraft (IMAGE-FUV) has been used to observe O+ plasma depletions in the post-sunset equatorial ionosphere. Small-scale density irregularities associated with such depletions are believed to adversely affect trans-ionospheric radio signals such as GPS. Prediction of the motion of these plasma depletions is a necessary component of the ability to forecast the occurrence of such radio signal interference. An automated method has recently been developed to identify and track the position and zonal drift velocity of these depletions. Here we use this method to create a large database of the zonal drift velocities of these depletions. We present an empirical model based on these observations that describes the observed drift velocities as a function of both local time and magnetic latitude, which is essential to represent their behavior. A comparison of the observed drift velocities with zonal winds from both an empirical model (Horizontal Wind Model; HWM07) and a first-principles model (the TIEGCM) reveals that the plasma depletions' drift velocities have a latitudinal gradient that cannot be explained solely by the F-region dynamo in the post-sunset period, at least by these climatological models. This suggests that these plasma depletions may not simply drift with the background F-region plasma. It has previously been suggested that vertical polarization electric fields associated with the plasma depletions are responsible for their zonal drifts exceeding the background flow, which may explain the previously-observed discrepancy in the drift velocities and the discrepancy in their gradients reported here.

Description: The vertical structure of the nightside ionosphere of Mars and its dependence on solar zenith angle are currently poorly determined, as is the importance of two key sources of nightside plasma, electron precipitation and transport of dayside plasma. We examined 37 electron density profiles of the ionosphere of Mars at solar zenith angles of 101°–123° obtained by the Mars Express Radio Science Experiment (MaRS) between 18 August and 1 October 2005. In general, solar activity was low during this period, although several solar energetic particle events did occur. The results show that (1) trends in peak electron density and altitude with solar zenith angle are consistent with transport of dayside plasma as an important plasma source up to 115°, but not higher; (2) peak altitudes of around 150 km observed at larger (〉115°) solar zenith angles are consistent with simulated plasma production by electron precipitation; and (3) peak altitudes observed during solar energetic particle events are at 90 km, consistent with accepted models. Solar energetic particle events can be the main source of nightside plasma. These results challenge current models of the nightside ionosphere, including their implications for plasma sources. The total electron content is correlated with peak electron density, requiring explanation. Due to the geographical distribution of this data set (latitudes poleward of 38°N), we do not explore the influence of crustal field strength and direction on the nightside ionosphere.