ALBERT

Description: Abstract Understanding the mechanisms by which earthquake cycles produce folding and accommodate shortening is essential to quantify the seismic potential of active faults and integrate aseismic slip within our understanding of the physical mechanisms of the long‐term deformation. However, measuring such small deformation signals in mountainous areas is challenging with current space‐geodesy techniques, due to the low rates of motion relative to the amplitude of the noise. Here we successfully carry out a multitemporal Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar analysis over the North Qaidam fold‐thrust system in NE Tibet, where eight Mw〉 5.2 earthquakes occurred between 2003 and 2009. We report various cases of aseismic slip uplifting the thickened crust at short wavelengths. We provide a rare example of a steep, shallow, 13‐km‐long and 6‐km‐wide afterslip signal that coincides spatially with an anticline and that continues into 2011 in response to a Mw 6.3 event in 2003. We suggest that a buried seismic slip during the 2003 earthquake has triggered both plastic an‐elastic folding and aseismic slip on the shallow thrusts. We produce a first‐order two‐dimensional model of the postseismic surface displacements due to the 2003 earthquake and highlight a segmented slip on three fault patches that steepen approaching the surface. This study emphasizes the fundamental role of shallow aseismic slip in the long‐term and permanent deformation of thrusts and folds and the potential of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar for detecting and characterizing the spatiotemporal behavior of aseismic slip over large mountainous regions.

Description: Abstract Structural details of the crust play an important role in controlling the distribution of volcanic activity in arc systems. In southwest Washington, several different regional structures associated with accretion and magmatism have been invoked to explain the broad distribution of Cascade volcanism in this region. In order to image these regional structures in the upper crust, Pg and Sg travel times from the imaging Magma Under St. Helens (iMUSH) active‐source seismic experiment are inverted for Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs models in the region surrounding Mount St. Helens. Several features of these models provide new insights into the regional structure of the upper crust. A large section of the Southern Washington Cascades Conductor is imaged as a low Vp/Vs anomaly that is inferred to represent a broad sedimentary/metasedimentary sequence that composes the upper crust in this region. The accreted terrane Siletzia is imaged west of Mount St. Helens as north/south trending high Vp and Vp/Vs bodies. The Vp/Vs model shows relatively high Vp/Vs regions near Mount St. Helens and the Indian Heaven Volcanic Field, which could be related to the presence of magmatic fluids. Separating these two volcanic regions below 6‐km depth is a northeast trending series of high Vp and Vs bodies. These bodies have the same orientation as several volcanic/magmatic features at the surface, including Mount St. Helens and Mount Rainier, and it is argued that these high‐velocity features are a regional‐scale group of intrusive bodies associated with a crustal weak zone that focuses magma ascent.

Description: Abstract Seismicity of several intraplate seismic zones in the North American midcontinent is believed to be related to reactivation of ancient faults in Precambrian continental rifts by the contemporary stress field. Existence of such a rift system beneath the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone (WVSZ) is not clear. Here we obtained a crustal structural image along a 300‐km‐long profile across WVSZ using a dense linear seismic array. We first calculated teleseismic receiver functions of stations and applied the Common‐Conversion‐Point stacking method to image crustal interfaces and the Moho. We then used ambient noise cross correlation to obtain phase and group velocities of Rayleigh and Love waves. Finally, we jointly inverted the receiver function and surface wave dispersion data to determine shear wave velocity structure along the profile. The results show a thick (50‐ to 60‐km) crust with a typical Proterozoic crustal layering: a 1‐ to 2‐km thick Phanerozoic sedimentary layer, an upper crust ∼15 km thick, and a 30‐ to 40‐km‐thick lower crust. The unprecedented high‐resolution image also reveals a 50‐km‐wide high‐velocity body above an uplifted Moho and several velocity anomalies in the upper and middle crust beneath the La Salle Deformation Belt. We interpreted them as features produced by magmatic intrusions in a failed, immature continental rift during the end of Precambrian. Current seismicity in WVSZ is likely due to reactivation of ancient faults of the rift system by a combination of stress fields from the far‐field plate motion and prominent crustal and upper mantle heterogeneities in the region.

Description: Abstract The Charlevoix Seismic Zone (CSZ) is located along the early Paleozoic St. Lawrence rift zone in southeastern Quebec at the location of a major Devonian impact structure. The impact structure superimposed major, steeply dipping basement faults trending approximately N35°E. Approximately 250 earthquakes are recorded each year and are concentrated within and beneath the impact structure. Most M4+ earthquakes associated with the rift faults occurred outside the impact structure. Apart from the unique distribution of earthquakes, stress inversion of focal mechanisms shows stress rotations within the CSZ, and in the CSZ relative to the stress orientation determined from borehole breakouts. The primary goal of this research is to investigate the combined effects of the preexisting structures and regional stresses on earthquake activity and stress rotations in the CSZ. We approach this using PyLith, a finite‐element code for simulations of crustal deformation. Adopting the results from recent hypocenter relocation and 3‐D tomography studies, we modify the locations and dips of the rift faults and assess the effect of the new fault geometries on stress distributions. We also discuss the effects of resolved velocity anomalies. We find that the observed stress rotation is due to the combined effect of the rift faults and the impact structure. One‐dimensional velocity models of the CSZ with an embedded impact structure and a combination of 65°‐40°‐40° and constant 70° fault dip models with a very low friction coefficient of 0.3 and cohesion of 0 MPa can explain the observed seismicity and more than 50% of the stress rotations.

Description: Abstract Seismic anisotropy provides important information on the structure and geodynamics of the Earth. The forearc mantle wedge in subduction zones mainly exhibits trench‐parallel azimuthal anisotropy globally, which is inconsistent with the model of olivine a axis aligning with the slab‐driven corner flow. Its formation mechanism is currently unclear. Here we present high‐resolution 3‐D P wave anisotropic tomography of the Tohoku subduction zone. We suggest that ductile deformation of the forearc lithospheric mantle of the overriding plate induces the trench‐parallel azimuthal anisotropy and positive radial anisotropy (i.e., horizontal velocity 〉 vertical velocity) in Tohoku. Our results provide the first seismic anisotropic evidence for the slab‐mantle decoupling at a common depth of ~70 km. On the basis of the high‐resolution seismic images, we propose a geodynamic model suggesting that the forearc mantle wedge anisotropy is produced via ductile deformation of dry olivine or hydrous antigorite lithospheric mantle, which accords well with the trench‐parallel shear wave splitting measurements dominant in subduction zones globally.

Description: Abstract We investigate 3‐D seismic structures (Vp, Vs, and Poisson's ratio) and Vp azimuthal anisotropy in the source area of the 2018 Eastern Iburi earthquake (M 6.7) in Hokkaido, Japan. Its mainshock occurred at the edge of a high‐Vp (2–4%) seismogenic zone. Significant low‐Vs (−1% to −3%) and high Poisson's ratio (2–7%) anomalies are imaged in and below the source zone and extend to the upper surface of the subducting Pacific slab, most likely reflecting ascending fluids released by the slab dehydration. A high consistency between the fault plane and the low‐Vs and high Poisson's ratio anomalies indicates that the fluids may have entered the fault and affected the rupture nucleation. A high‐V (1–3%) anomaly is revealed in the fore‐arc mantle wedge and connects with the high‐V seismogenic zone, probably reflecting a lithospheric fragment and contributing to cool down the mantle wedge. Complex seismic anisotropy is revealed in the crust in and around the source area, which may reflect complicated stress regime and strong structural heterogeneities there.

Description: Abstract Deltaic deposits mapped along the martian crustal dichotomy boundary scarp have been suggested to delineate an ancient ocean in the northern lowlands of Mars. Using recently acquired orbital data, we have expanded the dichotomy delta inventory and performed an updated analysis of delta front elevations, a proxy for paleo‐water levels. Our analysis focused near Gale crater, home of the Curiosity rover. We found that delta front elevations vary by ca. 2400 meters, but these elevation variations do not correspond to modeled deformation from true polar wander or Tharsis. Locally, delta front elevations vary by ≤60 meters, and using present‐day topography, they correspond to distinct enclosed basins. We infer that these deltas formed in paleo‐lakes up to ca. 13,000 km2 and ca. 0.4 kilometers deep, perhaps coeval with paleo‐lakes in Gale. Our results suggest that a northern ocean is not needed to explain the deltaic deposits in the Gale crater region.

Description: Abstract On 3 January 1975, the largest shallow moonquake (MW 4.1) occurred at Laue impact crater on the Moon. The fault responsible for the moonquake and origins of coseismic boulder avalanches are unknown. Our study reveals a set of previously unreported, seismically active, young lobate scarps near the epicenter. In addition, hundreds of boulder falls are observed on the interior walls of two impact craters on either side of the lobate scarps. The varying preservation levels and crater size‐frequency distributions of impact craters superimposed on the boulder falls indicate their episodic origins at 1.6 Ma and during the 1975 shallow moonquake. Our ground motion simulations confirm that the MW 4.1 moonquake along the lobate scarp at 1‐ to 5‐km focal depths produced strong ground shaking that triggered the boulder avalanches. Also, the fault slip along the Lorentz basin wall beneath the Laue crater floor produced the lobate scarps and the shallow moonquakes.

Description: Abstract High‐speed video and electric field change data have been used to examine the initiation and propagation of 21 recoil leaders, 7 of which evolved into dart (or dart‐stepped) leaders (DLs) initiating return strokes and 14 were attempted leaders (ALs), in a Canton‐Tower upward flash. Three DLs and two ALs clearly exhibited bidirectional extension. Each DL was preceded by one or more ALs and initiated near the extremity of the positive end of the preceding AL. The positive end of each bidirectional DL generally appeared to be inactive (stationary) or intermittently propagated along the positive part of the preceding AL channel and extended into the virgin air. A sequence of two floating channel segments were formed ahead of the approaching positive end of one DL, causing its abrupt elongation.

Description: Abstract On 24 December 2018, a violent eruption started at Mount Etna from a fissure on the southeastern flank. The intrusive phenomenon, accompanied by intense Strombolian and lava fountain activity, an ash‐rich plume, and lava flows, was marked by significant ground deformation and seismicity. In this work, we show how an integrated investigation combining high‐rate GPS data, volcano‐tectonic earthquakes, volcanic tremor, infrasound tremor, and infrasound events allows tracking the magma intrusion phenomenon spatially and temporally with unprecedented resolution. Moreover, it enabled showing how the central magma column lowered as a response to the flank eruption and to constrain the zone of interaction between the dike and the central plumbing system at a depth of 2–4 km below sea level. This is important for understanding flank and summit interaction, suggesting that explosive summit activity may in some cases be driven by lateral dike intrusions.

Description: Abstract Arctic amplification (AA) is typically associated with Planck, lapse rate, and ice albedo feedbacks. However, the relative importance of poleward energy transport on AA remains uncertain. Here, we analyze integrations from a Chemistry Climate Model to investigate the impact of the Montreal Protocol on forcing, feedback, and transport contributions to AA. Two ensembles of future integrations are considered—one projecting decreasing ozone‐depleting substance concentrations and stratospheric ozone recovery and another assuming that ozone‐depleting substances are not regulated (the “World Avoided”). We find similar degrees of AA in both ensembles, despite a negative radiative forcing over the Arctic in the “World Avoided” from massive ozone loss. That negative radiative forcing is primarily balanced from positive atmospheric energy flux convergence and long‐wave cloud feedbacks. Our results highlight the impact of inhomogeneous radiative forcing on regional differences in forcing and feedback strength and the importance of radiative forcing meridional structure on poleward energy transport.

Description: Abstract We examine oceanic drivers of widespread droughts over the contiguous United States (herein pan‐CONUS droughts) during the Common Era in what is one of the first analyses of the new Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation (PHYDA) product. The canonical understanding of oceanic influences on North American hydroclimate suggests that pan‐CONUS droughts are forced by a contemporaneous cold tropical Pacific Ocean and a warm tropical Atlantic Ocean. We test this hypothesis using the paleoclimate record. Composite analyses find a robust association between pan‐CONUS drought events and cold tropical Pacific conditions, but not with warm Atlantic conditions. Similarly, a self‐organizing map analysis shows that pan‐CONUS drought years are most commonly associated with a global sea surface temperature pattern displaying strong La Niña and cold Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) conditions. Our results confirm previous model‐based findings for the instrumental period and show that cold tropical Pacific Ocean conditions are the principal driver of pan‐CONUS droughts on annual timescales.

Description: Abstract The cavi unit at the north pole of Mars is a deposit of aeolian sand and water ice underlying the Late Amazonian north polar layered deposits. Its strata of Middle to Late Amazonian age record wind patterns and past climate. The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Shallow Radar (SHARAD) reveals extensive internal and basal layering within the cavi unit, allowing us to determine its general structure and relative permittivity. Assuming a basalt composition for the sand (ε′ = 8.8), results indicate that cavi contains an average ice fraction between 62% in Olympia Planum and 88% in its northern reaches beneath the north polar layered deposits and thus represents one of the largest water reservoirs on the planet. Internal reflectors indicate vertical variability in composition, likely in the form of alternating ice and sand layers. The ice layers may be remnants of former polar caps and thus represent a unique record of climate cycles predating the north polar layered deposits.

Description: Abstract In recent years, experimental results have consistently shown evidence of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave‐driven electron precipitation down to energies as low as hundreds of keV. However, this is at odds with the limits expected from quasi‐linear theory. Recent analysis using nonlinear theory has suggested energy limits as low as hundreds of keV, consistent with the experimental results, although to date this has not been experimentally verified. In this study, we present concurrent observations from Polar‐orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite, Radiation Belt Storm Probes, Global Positioning System, and ground‐based instruments, showing concurrent EMIC waves and sub–MeV electron precipitation, and a global dropout in electron flux. We show through test particle simulation that the observed waves are capable of scattering electrons as low as hundreds of keV into the loss cone through nonlinear trapping, consistent with the experimentally observed electron precipitation.

Description: Abstract Modelling and observations have shown that energy diffusion by chorus waves is an important source of acceleration of electrons to relativistic energies. By performing long‐term simulations using the three‐dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code, in this study, we test how the latitudinal dependence of chorus waves can affect the dynamics of the radiation belt electrons. Results show that the variability of chorus waves at high latitudes is critical for modelling of MeV electrons. We show that, depending on the latitudinal distribution of chorus waves under different geomagnetic conditions, they cannot only produce a net acceleration but also a net loss of MeV electrons. Decrease in high‐latitude chorus waves can tip the balance between acceleration and loss towards acceleration, or alternatively, the increase in high‐latitude waves can result in a net loss of MeV electrons. Variations in high‐latitude chorus may account for some of the variability of MeV electrons.

Description: Abstract Wet scavenging of black carbon (BC) has been subject to large uncertainty, which importantly determines its atmospheric lifetime and indirect forcing impact on cloud microphysics. This study reveals the complex BC‐hydrometeor interactions in mixed‐phase clouds via single particle measurements in the real‐world environment, by capturing precipitation processes throughout cloud formation, cold rain/graupel, and subsequent snow events at a mountain site influenced by anthropogenic sources in wintertime. We found highly efficient BC wet scavenging during cloud formation, with large and thickly coated BC preferentially incorporated into droplets. During snow processes, BC core sizes in the interstitial phase steadily increased. A mechanism was proposed whereby the BC mass within each droplet was accumulated through droplet collision, leading to larger BC cores, which were then released back to the interstitial air through the Wegener‐Bergeron‐Findeisen processes when ice dominated. These results provide fundamental basis for constraining BC wet scavenging.

Description: Abstract Auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) can potentially produce serious damage to space‐borne systems by accelerating trapped radiation belt electrons to relativistic energies. Here we examine the global occurrences of AKR emissions in radiation belts based on Van Allen Probes observations from 1 October 2012 to 31 December 2016. The statistical results (1,848 events in total) show that AKR covers a broad region of L= 3–6.5 and 00–24 magnetic local time (MLT), with a higher occurrence on the nightside (20–24 MLT and 00–04 MLT) within L= 5–6.5. All the AKR events are observed to be accompanied with suprathermal (∼1 keV) electron flux enhancements. During active geomagnetic periods, both AKR occurrences and electron injections tend to be more distinct, and AKR emission extends to the dayside. The current study shows that AKR emissions from the remote sources are closely associated with electron injections.

Description: Abstract In a metal, as in Earth's core, the thermal and electrical conductivities are assumed to be correlated. In a planetary dynamo this implies a contradiction: that both electrical conductivity, which makes it easier to induce current and magnetic field, and conductive heat transport, which hinders thermal convection, should increase simultaneously. Here we show that this contradiction implies that the magnetic induction rate peaks at a particular value of electrical and thermal conductivity and derive the low‐ and high‐conductivity limits for thermal dynamo action. A dynamo regime diagram is derived as a function of electrical conductivity and temperature for Earth's core that identifies four distinct dynamo regimes: no dynamo, thermal dynamo, compositional dynamo, and thermocompositional dynamo. Estimates for the temperature‐dependent electrical conductivity of the core imply that the geodynamo may have come close to its high‐conductivity “no dynamo” limit prior to inner core nucleation, consistent with recent paleomagnetic observations.

Description: ABSTRACT Blended acquisition along with efficient spatial sampling is capable of providing high‐quality seismic data in a cost‐effective and productive manner. While deblending and data reconstruction conventionally accompany this way of data acquisition, the recorded data can be processed directly to estimate subsurface properties. We establish a workflow to design survey parameters that account for the source blending as well as the spatial sampling of sources and detectors. The proposed method involves an iterative scheme to derive the survey design leading to optimum reflectivity and velocity estimation via joint migration inversion. In the workflow, we extend the standard implementation of joint migration inversion to cope with the data acquired in a blended fashion along with irregular detector and source geometries. This makes a direct estimation of reflectivity and velocity models feasible without the need of deblending or data reconstruction. During the iterations, the errors in reflectivity and velocity estimates are used to update the survey parameters by integrating a genetic algorithm and a convolutional neural network. Bio‐inspired operators enable the simultaneous update of the blending and sampling operators. To relate the choice of survey parameters to the performance of joint migration inversion, we utilize a convolutional neural network. The applied network architecture discards suboptimal solutions among newly generated ones. Conversely, it carries optimal ones to the subsequent step, which improves the efficiency of the proposed approach. The resultant acquisition scenario yields a notable enhancement in both reflectivity and velocity estimation attributable to the choice of survey parameters.

Description: Abstract Recent laboratory evidence shows that compaction creep in porous rocks may develop through stages of acceleration, especially if the material is susceptible to strain localization. This paper provides a mechanical interpretation of compaction creep based on viscoplasticity and nonlinear dynamics. For this purpose, a constitutive operator describing the evolution of compaction creep is defined to evaluate the spontaneous accumulation of pore collapse within an active compaction band. This strategy enables the determination of eigenvalues associated with the stability of the response, i.e. able to differentiate decelerating from accelerating strain. This mathematical formalism was linked to a constitutive law able to simulate compaction localization. Material point simulations were then used to identify the region of the stress space where unstable compaction creep is expected, showing that accelerating strains correspond to pulses of inelastic strain rate. Such pulses were also found in full‐field numerical analyses of delayed compaction, revealing that they correspond to stages of inception and propagation of new bands across the volume of the simulated sample. These results illustrate the intimate relation between the spatial patterns of compaction and their temporal dynamics, showing that while homogeneous compaction develops with decaying rates of accumulation, localized compaction occurs through stages of accelerating deformation caused by the loss of strength taking place during the formation of a band. In addition, they provide a predictive modeling framework to simulate and explain the spatiotemporal dynamics of compaction in porous sedimentary formations.

Description: ABSTRACT Detailed P wave velocity and anisotropy structure of the uppermost mantle below the central United States is presented based on a tomographic inversion of Pn traveltimes for earthquakes in the range 2 to 14°. Dense raypath coverage throughout the northern Mississippi Embayment is obtained using the Northern Embayment Lithosphere Experiment and U.S. Transportable Array data sets. A detailed analysis of the trade‐off between velocity and anisotropy variations demonstrates that both are well resolved over most of the study area. Anomalously fast Pn velocities are identified below the northern Mississippi Embayment, centered on the New Madrid seismic zone. A prominent region of low velocity coincides with the southwestern margin of the Illinois basin. Pn anisotropy displays complex patterns and differs from absolute plate motion directions and SKS splitting directions. A circular pattern of fast anisotropy directions is centered on the New Madrid seismic zone and may be related to the presence of the mafic “rift pillow.”

Description: Abstract Sedimentary relative paleointensity (RPI) records are often carried by complex magnetic mineral mixtures, including detrital and biogenic magnetic minerals. Recent studies have demonstrated that magnetic inclusions within larger detrital silicate particles can make significant contributions to sedimentary paleomagnetic records. However, little is known about the role such inclusions play in sedimentary paleomagnetic signal recording. We analyzed paleomagnetic and mineral magnetic data for marine sediment core MD01‐2421 from the North Pacific Ocean, offshore of central Japan, to assess how magnetic inclusions and other detrital magnetic minerals record sedimentary paleomagnetic signals. Stratigraphic intervals in which abundant magnetic inclusions dominate the magnetic signal are compared with other intervals to assess quantitatively their contribution to sedimentary RPI signals. The normalized remanence record from core MD01‐2421 does not correlate clearly with global RPI stacks, which we attribute to a demonstrated lower paleomagnetic recording efficiency of magnetic inclusions compared to other detrital magnetic minerals. We also carried out the first laboratory redeposition experiments under controlled Earth‐like magnetic fields for particles with magnetic inclusions using material from core MD01‐2421. Our results confirm that such particles can be aligned by ambient magnetic fields but with a lower magnetic recording efficiency compared to other detrital magnetic minerals, which is consistent with normalized remanence data from core MD01‐2421. Our demonstration of the role of sedimentary magnetic inclusions should have wide applicability for understanding sedimentary paleomagnetic recording.

Description: Abstract The mechanical dynamics of volcanic systems can be better understood with detailed knowledge on strength of a volcanic edifice and subsurface. Previous work highlighting this on Mt. Etna has suggested that its carbonate basement could be a significant zone of widespread planar weakness. Here, we report new deformation experiments to better quantify such effects. We measure and compare key deformation parameters using Etna basalt (EB), which is representative of upper edifice lava flows, and Comiso limestone (CL), which is representative of the carbonate basement, under upper crustal conditions. These data are then used to derive empirical constitutive equations describing changes in rocks strength with pressure, temperature and strain rate. At a constant strain rate of 10‐5 s‐1 and an applied confining pressure of 50 MPa the brittle to ductile transitions were observed at 975 °C (EB) and 350 °C (CL). For the basaltic edifice of Mt. Etna, the strength is described with a Mohr‐coulomb failure criterion with μ ~0.704, C = 20 MPa. For the carbonate basement, strength is best described by a power law‐type flow in two regimes: a low‐T regime with stress exponent n ~5.4 and an activation energy Q ~ 170.6 kJ/mol and a high‐T regime with n~ 2.4 and Q ~ 293.4 kJ/mol. We show that extrapolation of these data to Etna's basement predicts a brittle to ductile transition that corresponds well with the generally observed trends of the seismogenic zone underneath Mt. Etna. This in turn may be useful for future numerical simulations of volcano‐tectonic deformation of Mt. Etna, and other volcanoes with limestone basements.

Description: Geophysical Prospecting, Volume 0, Issue ja, -Not available-.

Description: ABSTRACT Transverse isotropy with a vertical axis of symmetry is a common form of anisotropy in sedimentary basins, and it has a significant influence on the seismic amplitude variation with offset. Although exact solutions and approximations of the PP‐wave reflection coefficient for the transversely isotropic media with vertical axis of symmetry have been explicitly studied, it is difficult to apply these equations to amplitude inversion, because more than three parameters need to be estimated, and such an inverse problem is highly ill‐posed. In this paper, we propose a seismic amplitude inversion method for the transversely isotropic media with a vertical axis of symmetry based on a modified approximation of the reflection coefficient. This new approximation consists of only three model parameters: attribute A, the impedance (vertical phase velocity multiplied by bulk density); attribute B, shear modulus proportional to an anellipticity parameter (Thomsen's parameter ε−δ); and attribute C, the approximate horizontal P‐wave phase velocity, which can be well estimated by using a Bayesian‐framework‐based inversion method. Using numerical tests we show that the derived approximation has similar accuracy to the existing linear approximation and much higher accuracy than isotropic approximations, especially at large angles of incidence and for strong anisotropy. The new inversion method is validated by using both synthetic data and field seismic data. We show that the inverted attributes are robust for shale‐gas reservoir characterization: the shale formation can be discriminated from surrounding formations by using the crossplot of the attributes A and C, and then the gas‐bearing shale can be identified through the combination of the attributes A and B. We then propose a rock‐physics‐based method and a stepwise‐inversion‐based method to estimate the P‐wave anisotropy parameter (Thomsen's parameter ε). The latter is more suitable when subsurface media are strongly heterogeneous. The stepwise inversion produces a stable and accurate Thomsen's parameter ε, which is proved by using both synthetic and field data.

Description: Abstract Extreme El Niño events affect the number of intense tropical cyclones (ITCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP). In 1997 and 2015, both extreme El Niño years, ITC numbers were above normal in the WNP. In order to clarify how, and to what extent, sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) distributions control the ITCs genesis, the authors conducted 50‐member ensemble simulations using a high‐resolution global nonhydrostatic model that explicitly simulates ITCs. The ensemble simulations showed a clear relationship between the number of ITCs and their genesis locations in the WNP. However, the authors found that the simulated numbers of ITCs in the WNP were also closely related to the strength of the monsoon trough, which varies under given SSTA conditions. This indicates that reliable seasonal forecasting of ITCs depends on our ability to accurately reproduce the monsoon trough, whose strength is modulated mainly by internal atmospheric variability but also by SSTA.

Description: Abstract We analyzed new recordings of SPdKS seismic waveforms from a global set of broadband seismograms and horizontal tiltmeters from the Hi‐net array in Japan from 26 earthquakes in the Central American region. The anomalous waveforms are consistent with the presence of at least three ultralow‐velocity zones (ULVZs), on the core‐mantle boundary beneath northern Mexico and the southeastern United States. These ULVZs ring an area of high seismic wave speeds observed in tomographic models that has long been associated with past subduction. Waveform modeling using the PSVaxi method suggests that the ULVZs have S and P wave velocity decreases of 40% and 10%, respectively. These velocity decreases are likely best explained by a partially molten origin where the melt is generated through melting of mid‐ocean ridge basalt atop the subducted slab.

Description: Abstract Sea level rise after the Last Glacial Maximum inundated several million square kilometers of Arctic permafrost, while estimates of organic carbon (OC) quantity and vulnerability to mineralization are exceedingly uncertain. We compiled geophysical measurements from Arctic continental shelves to estimate current subsea permafrost OC stocks. We found that marine transgression since the Last Glacial Maximum inundated approximately 3.92×106 km2 of permafrost, which contained 1,460±1,010 Pg OC in the top 25 m of sediment. We estimated that current subsea permafrost underlies an area of 2.30×106 km2 and contains 860±590 Pg OC, not including methane hydrates. Most of the ~600 Pg of OC that thawed after the marine transgression is still present on the continental shelves. Although our estimates of subsea OC storage remain highly uncertain due to the sparse and uneven distribution of data, they suggest that current estimates of subsea OC substantially underestimate a major component of the global carbon cycle.

Description: Abstract MMS3 spacecraft passed the vicinity of the electron diffusion region of magnetotail reconnection on 3 July 2017, observing discrepancies between perpendicular electron bulk velocities and drift, and agyrotropic electron crescent distributions. Analyzing linear wave dispersions, Burch et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082471) showed the electron crescent generates high‐frequency waves. We investigate harmonics of upper‐hybrid (UH) waves using both observation and particle‐in‐cell (PIC) simulation, and the generation of electromagnetic radiation from PIC simulation. Harmonics of UH are linearly polarized and propagate along the perpendicular direction to the ambient magnetic field. Compared with two‐dimensional PIC simulation and nonlinear kinetic theory, we show that the nonlinear beam‐plasma interaction between the agyrotropic electrons and the core electrons generates harmonics of UH. Moreover, PIC simulation shows that agyrotropic electron beam can lead to electromagnetic (EM) radiation at the plasma frequency and harmonics.

Description: Abstract We study, numerically, the behavior of capillary pressure (Pc) during slow immiscible displacement in a rough fracture as a function of the degree of fracture aperture heterogeneity that results from two distinct mechanisms: normal confining stress and fracture surface correlation. We generate synthetic self‐affine rough fractures at different correlation scales, solve the elastic contact problem to model the effect of confining stress, and simulate slow immiscible displacement of a wetting fluid by a nonwetting one using a modified invasion percolation model that accounts for in‐plane curvature of the fluid‐fluid interface. Our modeling results indicate that the power spectral density, S(f), of Pc, can be used to qualitatively characterize fracture aperture heterogeneity. We show that the distribution of forward avalanche sizes follows a power law , with exponent α=2, in agreement with previously reported values for porous media and equal to the expected theoretical exponent for a self‐organized criticality process.

Description: Abstract In this letter, detailed evolution process of parallel electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves in the inner magnetosphere has been investigated through quasilinear theory. A new saturation has been found to occur after the usual first saturation. During the interval between these two saturations, the energy transfers from H+ band to He+ band electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves. Moreover, through a best fitting, we obtain new model parameters for the anisotropy‐beta inverse relation of hot H+, which identifies the threshold of ion cyclotron instabilities in the inner magnetosphere. In situ observations of the Van Allen Probe mission also verify these new model parameters. Therefore, our results reveal the evolution process and saturation characteristics of parallel electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves in the inner magnetosphere.

Description: Abstract The processes that accompany the death of an oceanic plate, as a ridge nears a trench, remain enigmatic. How the plate might reorganize, fragment, and eventually be captured by one of the bounding plates are among the unresolved details. We present a tomographic model of the Pacific Northwest from onshore and offshore seismic data that reveals a hole in the subducted Juan de Fuca plate. We suggest that this hole is the result of a tear along a preexisting zone of weakness, is causing volcanism on the North American plate, and is causing deformation in the Juan de Fuca plate offshore. We propose that in the final stages of an oceanic plate's life, deformation on the surface can be driven by deeper dynamics and that the fragmentation and the eventual capture of oceanic plate fragments may be governed by a process that operates from the bottom up.

Description: Abstract Observations by the Lightning and Airglow Camera on Japan's Venus Climate Orbiter “Akatsuki” over its first 3 years in orbit are reported. Forty‐two opportunities during low‐altitude nightside passes have accumulated 16.8 hr of observation, yielding an area‐time product of 81.6 ×106 km2‐hr, by far the largest at Venus itself to date. No flashes attributable to lightning have been detected, whereas similar observations at Earth would yield thousands of detections. A low flash rate of ~0.005 per million km2‐hr indicated in ground‐based observations is not excluded (but would require that there are not many more smaller flashes). The allowable flash rate is incompatible with the much higher rates of bursts recorded by magnetic and electric field sensors at Venus, indicating that electrical discharges at Venus lack optical emission or that the electromagnetic detections have a nonlightning explanation or both.

Description: Abstract Retrievals of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and other trace gases from satellite measurements rely on accurate calculation of an air mass factor (AMF) to account for the atmospheric light path. Scattering and absorption of sunlight by aerosols affects AMFs by impacting the sensitivity of satellite‐observed radiances to NO2 at different altitudes. Current NO2 retrievals either do not explicitly account for these effects or rely on aerosol information from an external source. Here we investigate a method for quantifying the impact of aerosols on NO2 AMFs using the Absorbing Aerosol Index, a satellite‐based measure of light absorption and scattering by aerosols. We find a robust relationship between the Absorbing Aerosol Index and the aerosol correction to NO2 AMFs using the GEOS‐Chem chemical transport model and the LIDORT radiative transfer model. This relationship enables estimating the impact of aerosols on AMFs using observed Absorbing Aerosol Index values, thus yielding an observation‐based aerosol correction for NO2 retrievals.

Description: Abstract The Global Moving Hotspot Reference Frame (GMHRF) has been claimed to fit hot spot tracks better than the fixed hot spot approximation mainly because the GMHRF predicts ≈1,000 km southward motion through the mantle of the Hawaiian mantle plume over the past 80 Ma. As the GMHRF is determined by starting at present and calculating backward in time, it should be most accurate and reliable for the recent geologic past. Here we compare the fit of the GMHRF and of fixed hot spots to the observed trends of young tracks of hot spots. Surprisingly, we find that the GMHRF fits the data significantly worse (p = 0.005) than does the fixed hot spot approximation. Thus, either plume conduits are not passively advected with the mantle flow calculated for the GMHRF or Earth's actual mantle velocity field differs substantially from that calculated for the GMHRF.

Description: Abstract Submesoscale processes are key in understanding physical and biological phenomena near the surface, but there remains a lack of observational evidence over large areas. We used hourly images from a geostationary satellite that can resolve variation in surface ocean color over an area of few hundred kilometers. The temporal variation in the surface chlorophyll a distribution captured by the satellite images was first used to generate a submesoscale‐permitting velocity field, from which we calculated the turbulence statistics such as kinetic energy spectra, velocity structure functions, and energy flux. Application to the April scenes in the East/Japan Sea showed that the kinetic energy spectra had a transition scale at 50 km that suggested two spectral regimes following k−3 and k−5/3, implying the coexistence of quasi‐geostrophic turbulence and surface quasi‐geostrophic turbulence. The chlorophyll a scalar spectrum suggested two spectral regimes of k−5/3 and k−1 with a transition at 3 km.

Description: Abstract On 20 April 2013, an Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquake occurred on the southwestern segment of the Longmen Shan fault belt, which is the tectonic block boundary between the eastern Tibetan plateau and the Sichuan basin. Seismic reflection profiles and aftershock relocation indicate that there exists a back thrust fault in the source region but whether it is ruptured during the Lushan earthquake remains controversial. Here the precise leveling data are firstly used together with Global Positioning System (GPS), Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), and strong motion data to invert for the fault geometry and slip distribution associated with the earthquake. The joint inversion result shows that the Lushan earthquake occurred on a blind thrust fault with strike N208.5 °E and dip 42.1° to the NW and did not rupture the back reverse fault. The coseismic slip model reveals the Lushan earthquake involves the rupture of one major asperity. The coseismic slip is mainly concentrated on a steeply dipping fault plane. The coseismic rupture terminates on the southwestern side of the seismic gap between the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes. Topographic stress may be the dominant mechanism of coseismic rupture termination.

Description: Abstract Experimental data show that inelastic straining occurs even at very low pressure before and during “brittle” fracturing. This process is therefore investigated within the framework of elastoplasticity using 2D, 3‐layer FD modeling. The constitutive model includes both tensile and shear failure mechanisms coupled at the level of the strain softening law. The modeling results show that sets of parallel joints initiate as pure dilation bands, the narrow σ3‐normal bands of localized dilatant damage (inelastic deformation). The band thickness, length, and the initial strain softening degree within it are proportional to the ductility of the material, which increases with the effective stress level (σ1) or pressure. The strength reduction within the bands is accelerated at a certain stage, and the strength locally reaches zero resulting in fracture initiation. The initial fracture then propagates in mode I following the propagating band. The fracture (joint) appears thus as a band of damaged material with the increased porosity, which is maximum along the axial zone of the band where the material is completely broken. The damage is due to both tensile and shear mechanisms. The role of shear failure increases with the ductility (pressure) increase, which also leads to the band thickness increase. These processes can result in small (band thickness)‐scale shear fractures within the band, causing the increase in the roughness of fracture walls organized in plumose patterns typical of both natural and experimentally generated joints.

Description: Abstract A growing body of research has underscored the radiative impact of mineral dust in influencing Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability. However, the various aerosol‐cloud‐precipitation interaction mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here we analyze multisatellite observations to examine dust‐induced modification in ice clouds and precipitation susceptibility. We show contrasting dust‐induced changes in ice cloud regimes wherein despite a 25% reduction in ice particle radius in thin ice clouds, we find ~40% increase in ice particle radius and ice water path in thick ice clouds resulting in the cloud deepening and subsequently strengthened precipitation susceptibility, under strong updraft regimes. The observed dust‐ice cloud‐precipitation interactions are supported by a strong correlation between the interannual monsoon rainfall variability and dust frequency. This microphysical‐dynamical coupling appears to provide negative feedback to aerosol‐cloud interactions, which acts to buffer enhanced aerosol wet scavenging. Our results underscore the importance of incorporating meteorological regime‐dependent dust‐ice cloud‐precipitation interactions in climate simulations.

Description: Abstract The paleogeographic relationship between South China and Gondwana is critical for understanding the dispersion of Gondwana, accretion of Asia, and evolution of the Paleo‐Tethys. However, the lack of robust Devonian paleomagnetic data prevents a confirmative reconstruction of South China's connection to Gondwana and its subsequent separation during the Paleozoic. Here we report a new paleopole (33.6°N, 236.4°E; A95 = 3°) from the Givetian red beds (~385 Ma) in central South China. Fitting apparent polar wander paths between South China and Gondwana suggests that South China was connected to East Gondwana from the earliest Cambrian to Early Devonian, with its position closed to NW Australia. Thereafter, South China separated from Gondwana during ~400–385 Ma, as evidenced by their decoupled apparent polar wander paths. The paleomagnetic data suggest that the Paleo‐Tethys Ocean between South China and East Gondwana had been up to ~1,600 km latitudinally wide by ~360 Ma.

Description: Abstract Simulations of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering have typically considered injections at a constant rate over the entire year. However, the seasonal variability of both sunlight and the stratospheric circulation suggests seasonally dependent injection strategies. We simulated single‐point injections of the same amount of SO2 in each of the four seasons and at five different latitudes (30°S, 15°S, equator, 15°N, and 30°N), 5 km above the tropopause. Our findings suggest that injecting only during one season reduces the amount of SO2 needed to achieve a certain aerosol optical depth, thus potentially reducing some of the side effects of geoengineering. We find, in particular, that injections at 15°N or 15°S in spring of the corresponding hemisphere results in the largest reductions in incoming solar radiation. Compared to annual injections, by injecting in the different seasons we identify additional distinct spatiotemporal aerosol optical depth patterns, thanks to seasonal differences in the stratospheric circulation.

Description: Abstract An experimental investigation of droplet generation by a plunging breaking wave is presented. In this work, simultaneous measurements of the wave crest profile evolution and of droplets ranging in radius down to 50 μm for a mechanically generated plunging breaker during many repeated breaking events in freshwater are performed. We find three distinct time zones of droplet production, first when the jet impacts the free surface upstream of the wave crest, second when the large air bubbles entrapped by the plunging jet impact reach the free surface and burst, and third when smaller bubbles burst upon reaching the free surface later in the breaking process. These subprocesses account for 22%, 44%, and 34%, respectively, of the average of 653 droplets produced per breaking event. The probability distributions of the ranges of large and small droplet radii are well represented by power law functions that intersect at a radius of 418 μm.

Description: Abstract Modes of climate variability are known to influence rainy season onset, but there is less understanding of how they impact flood timing. We use streamflow reanalysis and gauged observation datasets to examine the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) across sub‐Saharan Africa. We find significant changes in flood timing between positive and negative phases of both IOD and ENSO; in some cases the difference in the timing of annual flood events is more than 3 months. Sensitivity to one or other mode of variability differs regionally. Changes in flood timing are larger than variability in rainy season onset reported in the literature, highlighting the need to understand how the hydrological system alters climate variability signals seen in rainy season onset, length and rainfall totals. Our insights into flood timing could support communities who rely on flood‐based farming systems to adapt to climate variability.

Description: Abstract Fluid‐induced stress perturbations in the crust at seismogenic depths caused by sources such as tidal or seasonal loading may trigger earthquakes. We investigate the role of small periodic pore pressure (Pp) perturbation in rupture nucleation by performing laboratory triaxial creep experiments on Fontainebleau sandstone, saturated in water, under sinusoidal Pp variations. Results show that recorded acoustic emissions (AEs) correlate with Pp as the rock approaches failure. More interestingly, AEs occur significantly more when Pp is decreasing, that is, when strain rate is maximum with a progressive increase of Pp‐AEs correlation in time as the rock approaches failure. This suggests that the correlation of small stress perturbations and AEs not only depends on Pp amplitude but also on the criticality of the rock. Observations at the laboratory scale support field observations where tidal loading may have modulated seismic rates during the nucleation phase of the 2004 Sumatra‐Andaman and 2011 Tohoku‐Oki earthquakes.

Description: Abstract The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter/Lyman Alpha Mapping Project (LAMP) UV instrument detected a 0.5‐2% icy regolith mix on the floor of some of the southern pole permanently shadowed craters of the Moon. We present calculations indicating that most or all of this icy regolith detected by LAMP (sensed to a depth of 〈 1 micron) has to be relatively young – less than 2000 years old‐ due to the surface erosional loss by plasma sputtering (external ionized gas‐surface interactions), meteoric impact vaporization, and meteoric impact ejection. These processes, especially meteoric impact ejection, will disperse water along the crater floor, even onto warm regions where it will then undergo desorption. We have determined that there should be a water exosphere over polar craters (e.g., like Haworth crater) and calculated that a model 40 km diameter crater should emit ~1019 H2O/s into the exosphere in the form of free molecules and ice‐embedded particulates.

Description: Abstract A recent airborne study obtained extensive measurements in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) over the western Pacific and provided the first opportunity to examine the relationship between water vapor and temperature in the coldest region and season of the TTL using high‐resolution in situ data. Analysis of this data set verifies key hypotheses in Lagrangian simulations of TTL transport and freeze drying. Furthermore, the observations provide a number of new insights into the transport process: In the layer below the lapse rate tropopause, vertical transport from upward motion dominates the relative humidity structure; final dehydration, dominated by large‐scale horizontal advection, occurs in the layer transacting the cold point tropopause that is often above the lapse rate tropopause, resulting in water vapor mixing ratios with corresponding frost points consistent with the coldest temperatures of the region, lower than the temperatures of the local cold points.

Description: Abstract We study the influence of the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux intensity on the precipitating ion fluxes as seen by the Solar Wind Ion Analyzer, an energy and angular ion spectrometer aboard the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft. We defined three periods with significantly different EUV flux intensity (1.6 and 3.2 times the lowest EUV intensity) and compare the precipitating ion flux measured by MAVEN/Solar Wind Ion Analyzer during each period. At low energy [30–650] eV, we find that the median (average) precipitating ion flux during the medium and low EUV periods are, respectively, 1.7 (2.1) and 3 (3.5) times more intense than the flux during the high EUV period. At high energy [650–25,000] eV, a similar trend in the intensity of the precipitating ion flux is observed but with an increase by 50% (46%) and 70% (79%), respectively. A larger EUV flux does therefore not seem to favor heavy ion precipitation into Mars's atmosphere, contrary to modeling prediction and overall expectations.

Description: Abstract A single‐column model approach conducted in the context of the Madden–Julian Oscillation through the CINDY2011/Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation field campaign is used to disentangle the respective role of the parameterizations of surface turbulent fluxes and of model atmospheric physics in controlling the surface latent heat flux. The major differences between the models used in this study occur during the suppressed phases of deep convection. They are attributed to differences in model atmospheric physics which is shown to control the near‐surface relative humidity and thereby the surface latent heat flux. In contrast, during active phases of deep convection, turbulent air‐sea flux parameterizations impact the latent heat flux through the drag coefficient and can represent two thirds of the divergence caused by the different atmospheric physics. The combined effects need to be accounted for to improve both the representation of latent heat flux and the atmospheric variables used to compute it.

Description: Abstract Small, deep low‐frequency earthquakes (LFEs) with dominant frequencies of 2–8 Hz occur at depths of 20–40 km and are thought to be related to movement of magma or crustal fluid, but their physical source processes remain largely unknown. Therefore, we determine the focal mechanisms of LFEs beneath Zao volcano, Northeast Japan, using the S/P amplitude ratio. Most focal mechanisms are classified into five groups: three types of double couples, a compensated linear vector dipole group, and a single force group. Double couples in 2007–2012 are consistent with those expected for the regional stress field, but no such events have been observed since 2013. This transition in focal mechanisms was simultaneous with a rapid increase in LFE activity beneath Zao. Our results suggest that LFEs beneath Zao were controlled mainly by the local stress field, but the stress field changed about two years after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake.

Description: Abstract The sensitivity of gravity‐wave momentum flux in the Mei‐Yu front systems to moisture is investigated via idealized simulations with various degrees of initial moisture content. Gravity waves generated in moist experiments result in net northward momentum flux and drag forcing, and the drag is indistinctive in the lower stratosphere near the tropopause but strengthens with height. As moisture content increases, the meridional flux intensifies remarkably in both physical and spectral space and extends to smaller spatiotemporal scales. However, the change of moisture has little effect on the selectivity of the strongest flux to relatively large scales and specific phase speeds. At slow phase speeds, the fanlike waves excited by the front are effectively coupled with the convective waves excited by the prefrontal moist convection, which leads to the weakening of the coupled wave flux.

Description: ABSTRACT The subsurface media are not perfectly elastic, thus anelastic absorption, attenuation and dispersion (aka Q filtering) effects occur during wave propagation, diminishing seismic resolution. Compensating for anelastic effects is imperative for resolution enhancement. Q values are required for most of conventional Q‐compensation methods, and the source wavelet is additionally required for some of them. Based on the previous work of non‐stationary sparse reflectivity inversion , we evaluate a series of methods for Q‐compensation with/without knowing Q and with/without knowing wavelet. We demonstrate that if Q‐compensation takes the wavelet into account, it generates better results for the severely attenuated components, benefiting from the sparsity promotion. We then evaluate a two‐phase Q‐compensation method in the frequency domain to eliminate Q requirement. In phase 1, the observed seismogram is disintegrated into the least number of Q‐filtered wavelets chosen from a dictionary by optimizing a basis pursuit denoising problem, where the dictionary is composed of the known wavelet with different propagation times, each filtered with a range of possible values. The elements of the dictionary are weighted by the infinity norm of the corresponding column and further preconditioned to provide wavelets of different values and different propagation times equal probability to entry into the solution space. In phase 2, we derive analytic solutions for estimates of reflectivity and Q and solve an over‐determined equation to obtain the final reflectivity series and Q values, where both the amplitude and phase information are utilized to estimate the Q values. The evaluated inversion‐based Q estimation method handles the wave‐interference effects better than conventional spectral‐ratio‐based methods. For Q‐compensation, we investigate why sparsity promoting does matter. Numerical and field data experiments indicate the feasibility of the evaluated method of Q‐compensation without knowing Q but with wavelet given.

Description: Abstract Deciphering the relationship between lateral growth of faults and along‐strike deformation (i.e., shortening and uplift) in the Earth's upper crust remains a challenge. Here we gain insight into the relation between these processes by studying the Kashi anticline, an asymmetric, doubly plunging thrust‐fault‐related fold located in the southwest Tian Shan, China. We use seismic interpretation and field observations, together with 2‐D trishear and excess area methods, to quantify the distribution of shortening along this structure. The shortening distribution along strike of the Kashi anticline is nonlinear and has a peaked, asymmetric, bell shape, with a maximum value of 5.9 ± 0.2 km. After comparing the 3‐D structural model of the Kashi anticline and our trishear models, we propose that lateral propagation‐to‐maximum shortening ratio, initiation fault length, and lateral propagation rate control the lateral fault propagation process and the fold terminations. Moreover, the 3‐D fault morphology and the ages of the growth strata suggest that the Kashi anticline experienced two stages of lateral growth with propagation rates of 60 km/Ma between 1.4 ± 0.2 Myr and 0.9 ± 0.3 Ma, and ~67 km/Myr from 0.9 ± 0.3 Ma to present. These observations highlight the relation between the evolution of lateral fault growth and the along‐strike shortening distribution, allowing us to use the latter (which we can measure) to infer the former (which we cannot). These novel insights from the Kashi anticline can be used to understand lateral growth of thrust and normal faults worldwide.

Description: Abstract Seismically detected ultralow velocity zones (ULVZs) at the the core‐mantle boundary (CMB) reflect the dynamical state and geological evolution of the silicate‐metal frontier of Earth's deep interior. However, modeling the dynamical context of ULVZs is hampered by challenges, such as the necessity of fine scale resolution and the accurate treatment of large viscosity contrasts. Here we extend the treatment of ULVZs using a lubrication theory approach and apply it to numerical and analytical models relevant for mantle convection in the CMB region. A generic model of a thin and dense low viscosity ULVZ layer embedded between an overlying convecting viscous mantle and an underlying inviscid core can explain several features that are consistent with seismic inferences, such as the absence of ULVZs in some regions and a tabular shape where they are concentrated. The model explains how the topography of a ULVZ layer tends to saturate and flatten as it becomes thicker, due to a non‐linear feedback between viscous aggregation beneath upwelling mantle currents and gravitational spreading/relaxation. Implementation of the ULVZ equation in thermal convection models indicates that ULVZs are preferentially gathered beneath long‐lived plumes, and may not exist beneath newly formed plume roots where there is no source of layer material. The presence/absence of ULVZs and their detailed shapes may provide important insights into the dynamical state and convective instability of the lowermost mantle thermal boundary layer.

Description: Abstract We implement a Coulomb rate‐and‐state approach to explore the nonlinear relation between stressing rate and seismicity rate in the Groningen gas field. Coulomb stress rates are calculated, taking into account the 3‐D structural complexity of the field and including the poroelastic effect of the differential compaction due to fault offsets. The spatiotemporal evolution of the Groningen seismicity must be attributed to a combination of both (i) spatial variability in the induced stressing rate history and (ii) spatial heterogeneities in the rate‐and‐state model parameters. Focusing on two subareas of the Groningen field where the observed event rates are very contrasted even though the modeled seismicity rates are of similar magnitudes, we show that the rate‐and‐state model parameters are spatially heterogeneous. For these two subareas, the very low background seismicity rate of the Groningen gas field can explain the long delay in the seismicity response relative to the onset of reservoir depletion. The characteristic periods of stress perturbations, due to gas production fluctuations, are much shorter than the inferred intrinsic time delay of the earthquake nucleation process. In this regime the modeled seismicity rate is in phase with the stress changes. However, since the start of production and for two subareas of our analysis, the Groningen fault system is unsteady and it is gradually becoming more sensitive to the stressing rate.

Description: Abstract From 1963 to 1973 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measured heat flow at 356 sites in the Amerasian Basin (Western Arctic Ocean) from a drifting ice island (T‐3). The resulting measurements, which are unevenly distributed on Alpha‐Mendeleev Ridge (AMR) and in Canada and Nautilus basins, greatly expand available heat flow data for the Arctic Ocean. Average T‐3 heat flow is ~54.7 ± 11.3 mW m‐2, and Nautilus Basin is the only well‐surveyed area (~13% of data) with significantly higher average heat flow (63.8 mW m‐2). Heat flow and bathymetry are not correlated at a large scale, and turbiditic surficial sediments (Canada and Nautilus basins) have higher heat flow than the sediments that blanket the AMR. Thermal gradients are mostly near‐linear, implying that conductive heat transport dominates and that near‐seafloor sediments are in thermal equilibrium with overlying bottom waters. Combining the heat flow data with modern seismic imagery suggests that some of the observed heat flow variability may be explained by local changes in sediment thickness or lithology or the presence of basement faults that channel circulating seawater. A numerical model that incorporates thermal conductivity variations along a profile from Canada Basin (thick sediment on mostly oceanic crust) to Alpha Ridge (thin sediment over thick magmatic units associated with the High Arctic Large Igneous Province) predicts heat flow lower than that observed on Alpha Ridge. This, along with other observations, implies that circulating fluids modulate conductive heat flow and contribute to high variability in the T‐3 dataset.

Description: Abstract The Early Cretaceous Ontong Java Plateau (OJP) in the southwestern Pacific Ocean is the largest oceanic plateau by volume on Earth, and a broad range of observations has been conducted to reveal its formation and evolution. However, because seafloor seismic observations of the OJP and surrounding areas have been insufficient so far, such experiments are capable of generating additional information regarding the crustal and mantle structure of the OJP. To image seismic velocity discontinuities from the crust to the uppermost mantle, we applied receiver function (RF) analysis to seismic records acquired by 17 broadband ocean bottom seismometers deployed across the region in and around the OJP and 3 broadband stations located on ocean islands in Micronesia (one: permanent, two: temporary). The results revealed mid‐crustal discontinuities and the Moho at depths of 10–20 km and 30–40 km (from the top of the basement), respectively, in the central OJP. Moreover, a mantle discontinuity was also imaged at the depth of 55–60 km (from the top of the basement) in the central OJP. These boundaries were not imaged outside the OJP, implying they are characteristic features of the OJP. In addition, RF images showed Moho signals at the depth of 20 km in the eastern OJP, where few previous seismic exploration surveys have been conducted. This depth is comparable with that found in the Manihiki and Hikurangi plateaus that were potentially separated from the OJP.

Description: Abstract Previous compilation of crustal structure in South America had large unsampled areas including the thin crust in the Sub‐Andean lowlands, largely estimated by gravity data, and the sparsely sampled Amazon Craton. A deployment of 35 seismic stations in Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay improved the coverage of the Pantanal Basin in Western Brazil, the intracratonic Paraná and the Chaco basins. Crustal thicknesses and Vp/Vs ratios were estimated with a modified H‐k method by producing three stacked traces to enhance the three Moho conversions (the direct Ps and the two multiples Ppps and Ppss). This modified method gives lower uncertainties than previous studies and shows more regional consistency between nearby stations. The temporary stations and the Brazilian network (RSBR) have characterized the crustal structure as follows. The Paraná Basin has a thick crust 40‐45 km, and average Vp/Vs ratio (1.71‐1.77), while the Chaco Basin has a slightly thinner crust (35‐40 km) and higher Vp/Vs ratio (1.75‐1.79). This confirms the lack of widespread magmatic underplating in the Paraná Basin that could be related to the origin of the flood basalts during the South Atlantic opening. A belt of thin crust (30‐35 km) with low Vp/Vs (〈1.74) is confined to the eastern edge of the Pantanal Basin. Normal crust (38‐43 km) is observed along the western edge of the Pantanal, from the southern part of the Amazon craton to the Rio Apa cratonic block. This study, combined with other published data, provides an updated crustal thickness map of South America.

Description: Abstract We consider fluid‐induced seismicity and present closed‐form expressions for the elastic displacements, strains and stresses resulting from injection into or production from a reservoir with displaced faults. We apply classic inclusion theory to two‐dimensional finite‐width and infinite‐width reservoir models. First we simplify the fault model to the bare minimum while still maintaining its essential features: a vertical fault in a homogeneous reservoir of infinite width in an infinite domain. We confirm and sharpen findings from earlier numerical studies and furthermore conclude that the development of infinitely large elastic shear stresses in a displaced fault, at the internal and external reservoir/fault corners, implies that even small amounts of injection or production will result in some amount of slip or other non‐elastic deformation. Another finding is that there is a marked difference between the shear stress patterns resulting from injection and production in a reservoir with a displaced fault. In both situations two slip patches emerge but at the start of injection some amount of slip occurs immediately in the overburden and underburden, whereas during production the slip may remain inside the reservoir region. Next we derive similar, but more complicated expressions for displaced inclined (normal or reverse) faults and conclude that our findings for vertical faults also apply to inclined faults.

Description: Abstract Precipitation plays a crucial role in the Earth's energy balance, the water cycle, and the global atmospheric circulation. Aerosols, by direct interaction with radiation and by serving as cloud condensation nuclei, may affect clouds and rain formation. This effect can be examined in terms of energetic constraints, that is, any aerosol‐driven diabatic heating/cooling of the atmosphere will have to be balanced by changes in precipitation, radiative fluxes, or divergence of dry static energy. Using an aqua‐planet general circulation model (GCM), we show that tropical and extratropical precipitation have contrasting responses to aerosol perturbations. This behavior can be explained by contrasting ability of the atmosphere to diverge excess dry static energy in the two different regions. It is shown that atmospheric heating in the tropics leads to large‐scale thermally driven circulation and a large increase in precipitation, while the excess energy from heating in the extratropics is constrained due to the effect of the Coriolis force, causing the precipitation to decrease.

Description: Abstract The Muslim pilgrimage or Hajj, which is one of the five pillars of Muslim faith, takes place outdoors in and surrounding Mecca in the Saudi Arabian desert. The U.S. National Weather Service defines an extreme danger heat stress threshold which is approximately equivalent to a wet‐bulb temperature of about 29.1 °C—a combined measure of temperature and humidity. Here, based on results of simulations using an ensemble of coupled atmosphere‐ocean global climate models, we project that future climate change with and without mitigation will elevate heat stress to levels that exceed this extreme danger threshold through 2020 and during the periods of 2047 to 2052 and 2079 to 2086, with increasing frequency and intensity as the century progresses. If climate change proceeds on the current trajectory or even on a trajectory with considerable mitigation, aggressive adaptation measures will be required during years of high heat stress risk.

Description: Abstract Each spring, the climatological westerly winds of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex turn easterly as the stratospheric equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient relaxes. The timing of this event is dictated both by the annual return of sunlight to the pole and by dynamical influences from the troposphere. Here we consider the predictability of NH final stratospheric warmings in multi‐model hindcasts from the Sub‐seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) project database. We evaluate how well the S2S prediction systems perform in capturing the timing of final warmings. We compare the predictability of early warmings (which are more strongly driven by wave forcing) and late warmings, and find that late warmings are more skillfully predicted at longer lead times. Finally, we find significantly increased predictive skill of NH near‐surface temperature anomalies at week 3‐4 lead times following only early final warmings.

Description: Abstract We analyze slip distribution and rupture kinematics of a Mw3.3 induced event that occurred in the St. Gallen geothermal reservoir (NE Switzerland) in 2013. We carry out a two‐step procedure: (1) path effects are deconvolved from the seismograms using an empirical Green's function, resulting in relative source time functions at all seismic stations; (2) the relative source time functions are back‐projected to the corresponding isochrones on the fault plane. Results reveal that the mainshock rupture propagates toward NNE from the hypocenter with an average velocity of 2,000 m/s. Spatiotemporal organization of foreshocks and aftershocks shows that the mainshock broke a previously less active portion of the fault and suggests that the aftershock sequence could be mainly driven by stress transfer. Applying this method in an operational environment could enable fast retrieval of seismic slip, allowing assessment of fault asperities and structures involved in the reservoir creation process.

Description: Abstract The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) operates as an important link in global thermohaline circulation, and ITF variability probably modulated Pliocene climate change. Yet, whether ITF variability accounted for oceanographic change south of Northwest Cape remains controversial. Here, we present a multiproxy oceanographic reconstruction from the Perth Basin and reconstruct the Pliocene history of the Leeuwin Current (LC). We show that the LC was active throughout the Pliocene, albeit with fluctuations in intensity and scope. Three main factors controlled LC strength. First, a tectonic ITF reorganization caused an abrupt and permanent LC reduction at 3.7 Ma. On shorter timescales, eustatic sea level and direct orbital forcing of wind patterns hampered or promoted the LC. At 3.3 Ma, for instance, LC intensity plunged in response to a eustatic ITF restriction. Site U1459 then fell outside the extent of a weakened LC, and the latitudinal sea surface temperature gradient along West Australia doubled its steepness.

Description: Abstract Until recently, there were only a few ground‐based observations of terrestrial gamma ray flashes (TGFs). Since the Telescope Array in Utah, USA, started reporting detections of high‐energy particles correlated with lightning, their number has greatly increased. Ground observations of TGFs represent a valuable addition to space‐borne detectors. The proximity to the event and the ability to observe an event with several detectors may reveal new information about the production of TGFs. In this paper, we study downward directed TGFs using Monte Carlo modeling of photon transport through the atmosphere. The Telescope Array‐observed pulses of gamma rays spread over periods of a few hundred microseconds. We predict such structures to be observable at satellite altitude, given sufficient time resolution. Additionally, we demonstrate how various source spectra would lead to different number of photons reaching ground, which impacts the conclusions one can draw using observational data.

Description: Abstract Coral reef calcification is expected to decline due to climate change stressors such as ocean acidification and warming. Projections of future coral reef health are based on our understanding of the environmental drivers that affect calcification and dissolution. One such driver that may impact coral reef health is heterotrophy of oceanic‐sourced particulate organic matter, but its link to calcification has not been directly investigated in the field. In this study, we estimated net ecosystem calcification (NEC) and oceanic particulate organic carbon (POCoc) uptake across the Kāneʻohe Bay barrier reef in Hawai‘i. We show that higher rates of POCoc uptake correspond to greater NEC rates, even under low aragonite saturation states (Ωar). Hence, reductions in offshore productivity may negatively impact coral reefs by decreasing the food supply required to sustain calcification. Alternatively, coral reefs that receive ample inputs of POCoc may maintain higher calcification rates, despite a global decline in Ωar.

Description: Abstract While power‐law distributions in seismic moment and inter‐event times are ubiquitous in regional earthquake catalogs, the statistics of individual faults remains controversial. Continuum fault models without heterogeneity typically produce characteristic earthquakes or a narrow range of sizes, leading to the view that regional statistics originate from interaction of multiple faults. I present theoretical arguments and numerical simulations demonstrating that seismicity on homogeneous planar faults can span several orders of magnitude in rupture dimensions and inter‐event times, if the fault dimension W is sufficiently large compared to a characteristic length Lcrit, related to the nucleation dimension. Large faults are increasingly less characteristic, with the fraction of system‐size ruptures proportional to (Lcrit/W)1/2. Earthquake statistics for large W/Lcrit is remarkably close to nature, exhibiting Omori decay and power‐law distributed rupture lengths. Simple crack models are consistent with a Gutenberg‐Richter distribution with b=3/4, and provide a physical basis for these distributions on individual faults.

Description: Abstract The collision of the Indian plate with Eurasia has played a major role in controlling the dynamics of central Asia leading to the world's largest continental deformation zone. In order to study the deformation within the Indian plate as well as the India‐Eurasia collision zone, we model the lithospheric stress field by calculating the two primary sources of stress, one arising due to topography and shallow lithospheric structure estimated by gravitational potential energy (GPE) differences and the other arising from basal tractions derived from density driven mantle convection. We use several tomography models to calculate horizontal tractions using the convection code HC for two radially varying viscosity structures. We also take into account lateral viscosity variations in the lithosphere model arising from stiff cratons, weak plate boundaries and strength variations due to old and young oceanic lithosphere. We do a quantitative comparison of our predicted deviatoric stresses, strain rates and plate velocities with surface observables and find that the regional tomography model of (A. Singh, Mercier, Ravi Kumar, Srinagesh, & Chadha, 2014) embedded in the global S‐wave model S40RTS does a remarkable job of fitting the observations of GPS velocities and strain rates as well as intraplate stress field from the World Stress Map.

Description: Abstract The eastern and northeastern Tibetan plateau is a key region to study the growth and expansion of the plateau and associated extrusion tectonics. We studied the seismic anisotropic structure in this region by shear‐wave splitting analysis of teleseismic records from a dense linear seismic array, to constrain the lithospheric deformation and processes. We detected small‐scale variations in anisotropy, including changes of splitting parameters around major faults and different anisotropy patterns among individual tectonic blocks and units but with consistent interior features. Our results combined with previous observations suggest that, in addition to the dominant effects of lateral extrusion induced by the India‐Eurasia collision, major faults and tectonic heterogeneity may have also exerted significant impacts on the deformation and thus anisotropic structure of the lithosphere. In particular, we constructed two‐layer anisotropy models for both the Longmenshan sub‐block in the easternmost Songpan‐Ganzi terrane and the Western Qinling orogen, indicating crust‐mantle decoupling in these areas. The lower anisotropic layer of both areas shows a general NW‐SE fast polarization direction (FPD). We attribute this feature to the large‐scale mantle deformation, due to the lateral extrusion of Tibet associated with the India‐Eurasia collision. The upper‐layer anisotropy in both areas features an optimal NEE‐SWW FPD. While in the Longmenshan sub‐block it may stem from crustal deformation under the combined effects of mid‐lower crustal flow, faulting and tectonic heterogeneity, that in the Western Qinling Orogen is probably resulted from shearing caused by upper‐crustal displacement along a mid‐crustal detachment.

Description: Abstract Cross‐correlation of fully diffuse wavefields averaged over time should converge to the Green's function; however, the ambient seismic field in the real Earth is not fully diffuse, which interferes with that convergence. We apply blind signal separation to reduce the effect of spurious non‐diffuse components on the cross‐correlation tensor of the ambient seismic field. We describe the diffuse component as having uncorrelated neighboring frequencies and equal intensity at all azimuths, and an independent (i.e., statistically uncorrelated) non‐diffuse component arising from a spatially isolated point source for which neighboring frequencies are correlated. Under the assumption of linear independence of the spurious non‐diffuse wave outside the stationary phase zone and the constructive interference of noise waves within that zone, we can suppress the spurious non‐diffuse component from the noise interferometry. Our numerical simulations show good separation of one spurious non‐diffuse noise source component for either non‐diffuse Rayleigh or Love waves. We apply this separation to the Rayleigh‐wave component of the Green's function for 136 cross‐correlation pairs from 17 stations in Southern California. We perform beamforming over different frequency bands for the cross‐correlations before and after the separation, and find that the reconstructed Rayleigh waves are more coherent. We also estimate the bias in Rayleigh wave phase velocity for each receiver pair due to the spurious non‐diffuse contribution.

Description: No abstract is available for this article.

Description: Abstract Southeast Greenland has been a major participant in the ice sheet mass loss over the last several decades. Interpreting the evolution of glacier fronts requires information about their depth below sea level and ocean thermal forcing, which are incompletely known in the region. Here, we combine airborne gravity and multibeam echo sounding data from NASA's Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) mission with ocean probe and fishing‐boat depth data to reconstruct the bathymetry extending from the glacier margins to the edges of the continental shelf. We perform a three‐dimensional inversion of the gravity data over water and merge the solution with a mass conservation reconstruction of bed topography over land. In contrast with other parts of Greenland, we find few deep troughs connecting the glaciers to the sources of warm Atlantic water, amidst a relatively uniform, shallow (350 m) continental shelf. The deep channels include the Kangerlugssuaq, Sermilik, Gyldenløve and Tingmiarmiut troughs.

Description: Abstract Small ponds—farm ponds, detention ponds, or impoundments below 0.01 km2—serve important human needs throughout most large river basins. Yet the role of small ponds in regional nutrient and sediment budgets is essentially unknown, currently making it impossible to evaluate their management potential to achieve water quality objectives. Here we used new hydrography datasets and found that small ponds, depending on their spatial position within both their local catchments and the larger river network, can dominate the retention of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment compared to rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. Over 300,000 small ponds are collectively responsible for 34%, 69%, and 12% of the mean annual retention of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment in the Northeastern United States, respectively, with a dominant influence in headwater catchments (54%, 85%, and 50%, respectively). Small ponds play a critical role among the many aquatic features in long‐term nutrient and sediment loading to downstream waters.

Description: Abstract The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Hawai‘i, was its most effusive in over 200 years. We apply the airborne Glacier and Ice Surface Topography Interferometer (GLISTIN‐A) interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) instrument to measure topographic change associated with the eruption. The GLISTIN‐A radar flew in response to the eruption, acquiring observations of Kīlauea on 7 days between 18 May and 15 September 2018. Topography differences were computed relative to GLISTIN‐A observations in 2017. Bare‐Earth topography and offshore bathymetry were used to correct for vegetation and creation of new coastal land within the lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) lava flow field. We estimate that the LERZ subaerial flows total bulk volume is 0.593 ± 0.011 km3 and that the summit collapse volume is −0.836 ± 0.002 km3. Within the temporal sampling and uncertainty from submarine flow volumes, we find that both the LERZ and caldera volume changes were approximately linear.

Description: Abstract Longwave Infrared Camera (LIR) onboard Akatsuki first revealed the global structure of the thermal tides in the upper cloud layer of Venus. The data were acquired over three Venusian years, and the analysis was done over the areas from the equator to the mid‐latitudes in both hemispheres and over the whole local time. Thermal tides at two vertical levels were analyzed by comparing data at two different emission angles. Dynamical wave modes consisting of tides were identified; the diurnal tide consisted mainly of Rossby‐wave and gravity‐wave modes, while the semidiurnal tide predominantly consisted of a gravity‐wave mode. The revealed vertical structures were roughly consistent with the above wave modes, but some discrepancy remained if the waves were supposed to be monochromatic. In turn, the heating profile that excites the tidal waves can be constrained to match this discrepancy, which would greatly advance the understanding of the Venusian atmosphere.

Description: Abstract Mars’ atmosphere typically supports dust aerosol with an effective radius near 1.5 μm, varying from ~1 μm during low dust times near northern summer solstice to ~2 μm during higher dust times in southern spring and summer. After global dust events, size variations outside this range have not previously been observed. We report on imaging and spectral observations by the Curiosity rover through the 2018 global dust event. These observations show that the dust effective radius was seasonally normal prior to the local onset of increased opacity, increased rapidly above 4 μm with increasing opacity, remained above 3 μm over a period of ~50 Martian solar days, then returned to seasonal values before the opacity did so. This demonstrates lifting and regional scale transport of a dust population ~3 times the size of typical dust aerosol.

Description: Abstract We analyze source parameters of Mw ‐3.9 to ‐3.1 induced earthquakes during an in‐situ fluid injection experiment in France using the spectral ratio method based on empirical Green's function (eGf). We choose 10 master and eGf event pairs with highly‐similar waveforms and resolve their spectral ratios using multiple S–wave windows. We find that master events ruptured meter‐scale source patches with 〈1 micrometer slip in a preexisting fracture network oriented differently from the injected plane. The temporal correlation between master earthquake occurrence and injection pressure peak and the relatively low ratio of stress drop to crustal strength suggest that both fluid pressure perturbation and aseismic deformation play important roles in inducing the earthquakes. The comparison between stress drops of induced earthquakes in the experiment and in the central US indicates a dependency of stress drop on crustal shear strength.

Description: Abstract A full‐spectrum characterization of past interglacial climate is a necessary prerequisite for the detection and attribution of climate changes during the current interglacial. Here we present a speleothem record of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 interglacial (MIS 11c), from Yongxing cave, China. The record's unprecedented chronologic constraints and decadal‐scale temporal resolution allow a precise and direct comparison of ASM between the MIS 11c and the Holocene. Our data suggest that orbital‐centennial patterns of ASM were remarkably similar during both interglacial, including their pacing and structure. Notably, a multi‐millennial stronger monsoon late in MIS 11c, the “Late‐MIS 11c shift,” is similar to the Late Holocene strengthening of the ASM, the “2‐Kyr shift.” Thus, the multicentennial ASM weakening at the end of the Late‐MIS 11c shift could imply that the current century‐long ASM waning trend may persist into the future, if only natural forcings are considered.

Description: ABSTRACT We consider a transversely isotropic (TI) medium that is long‐wave equivalent to a stack of thin, parallel, isotropic layers and is obtained using the Backus average. In such media, we analyze the relations among anisotropy parameters; Thomsen parameters, ε, and δ, and a new parameter φ. We discuss the last parameter and show its essential properties; it equals to zero in the case of isotropy of equivalent medium and/or constant Lamé coefficient Λ in layers. The second property occurs to make φ sensitive to variations of Λ in thin‐bedded sequences. According to Gassmann, in isotropic media the variation of fluid content affects only the Lamé coefficient Λ, not μ; thus, the sensitivity to changes of Λ is an essential property in the context of possible detection of fluids. We show algebraically and numerically that φ is more sensitive to these variations than ε or δ. Nevertheless, each of these parameters is dependent on the changes of μ; to understand this influence, we exhibit comprehensive tables that illustrate the behavior of anisotropy parameters with respect to specific variations of Λ and μ. The changes of μ in layers can be presented by the Thomsen parameter γ that depends on them solely. Hence, knowing the values of elasticity coefficients of equivalent TI medium, we may compute φ and γ, and based on the aforementioned tables, we predict the expected variation of Λ; in this way, we propose a new method of possible fluid detection. Also, we show that the prior approach of possible detection of fluids, proposed by Berryman et al., may be unreliable in specific cases. To establish our results we use the Monte Carlo (MC) method; for the range and chosen variations of Lamé coefficients Λ and μ—relevant to sandstones—we generate these coefficients in thin layers and, after the averaging process, we obtain an equivalent TI medium. We repeat that process numerous times to get many equivalent TI media, and—for each of them—we compute their anisotropy parameters. We illustrate φ, ε, and δ in the form of cross‐plots that are relevant to the chosen variations of Λ and μ. Additionally, we present a table with the computed ranges of anisotropy parameters that correspond to different variations of Lamé coefficients. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Description: Abstract This studyinvestigates the correlation between the upwelling microwave brightness temperature measured by satellite radiometer and surface precipitation rate from ground radar observations at different time lags. Results show that brightness temperatures correlate more strongly with the lagged surface precipitation rate than the simultaneous surface precipitation rate. The lag time for snowfall ranges from 30 to 60 min. This time lag effect has an important influence when evaluating the satellite retrieval results relative to ground observations. For example, the falsely identified pixels can decrease by as much as 23.88% when considering a 30‐min lag time. Furthermore, the satellite‐retrieved snowfall rate shows much stronger correlation with the time‐lagged surface snowfall rate than the simultaneous snowfall rate in cold environments and for tall storms. This work implies that the time of the level‐2 swath‐retrieved snowfall rate needs to shift forward when incorporated into the level‐3 gridded products.

Description: ABSTRACT Saltbodies are important subsurface structures that have significant implications for hydrocarbon accumulation and sealing in petroleum reservoirs, and accurate saltbody imaging and delineation is now greatly facilitated with the availability of three‐dimensional seismic surveying. However, with the growing demand for larger survey coverage and higher imaging resolution, the size of seismic data is increasing dramatically. Correspondingly, manual saltbody interpretation fails to offer an efficient solution, particularly in exploration areas of complicated salt intrusion history. Recently, artificial intelligence is attracting great attention from geoscientists that desire to utilize the popular machine learning (ML) technologies for evolving the interpretational tools capable of mimicking an experienced interpreter's intelligence. This study first implements two popular ML tools, the multi‐layer perceptron (MLP) and the convolutional neural network (CNN), for delineating seismic saltbodies at sample‐ and pattern‐levels, respectively, then compares their performance through applications to the synthetic SEAM seismic volume, and moreover tentatively investigates what contributes to the better CNN delineation. Specifically, the MLP scheme is capable of efficiently utilizing an interpreter's knowledge by selecting, pre‐conditioning, and integrating a set of seismic attributes that best highlight the target saltbodies, whereas the CNN scheme makes it possible for saltbody delineation directly from seismic amplitude and thus significantly reduces the dependency on attribute selection from interpreters. It is concluded that the better performance from the CNN scheme results from two factors. First, the CNN builds the mapping relationship between the seismic signals and the saltbodies using the original seismic amplitude instead of manually selected seismic attributes, so that the negative impact of using less representative attributes is virtually eliminated. Second and more importantly, the CNN defines, learns, and identifies the saltbodies by utilizing local seismic reflection patterns, so that the seismic noises and processing artifacts of distinct patterns are effectively identified and excluded. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Description: ABSTRACT In this paper, we deduced the corresponding first‐order velocity–stress equation for curvilinear coordinates from the first‐order velocity–stress equation based on the modified Biot/squirt model for a two‐dimensional two‐phase medium. The equations are then numerically solved by an optimized high‐order non‐staggered finite difference scheme, that is, the dispersion relation preserving/optimization MacCormack scheme. To implement undulating free‐surface topography, we derive an analytical relationship between the derivatives of the particle velocity components and use the compact finite‐difference scheme plus a traction‐image method. In the undulating free surface and the undulating subsurface interface of two‐phase medium, the complex reflected wave and transmitted wave can be clearly recognized in the numerical simulation results. The simulation results show that the curvilinear‐grid finite‐difference method, which uses a body‐conforming grid to describe the undulating surface, can accurately reduce the numerical scattering effect of seismic wave propagation caused by the use of ladder‐shaped grid to fit the surfaces when undulating topography is present in a two‐phase isotropic medium.

Description: ABSTRACT Seismic methods are becoming an established choice for deep mineral exploration after being extensively tested and employed for the past two decades. To investigate whether the early European mineral exploration datasets had potential for seismic imaging that was overlooked, we recover a low‐fold legacy seismic dataset from the Neves‐Corvo mine site in the Iberian Pyrite Belt in southern Portugal. This dataset is comprised of six, 4–6 km long, profiles acquired in 1996 for deep targeting. Using today's processing algorithms, the world‐class, ca. 150 Mt, Lombador massive sulphide and other smaller deposits were better imaged. Additionally, we also reveal a number of shallow but steeply dipping reflections that were absent in the original processing results. This study highlights that legacy seismic data are valuable and should be revisited regularly to take advantage of new processing algorithms and the experiences gained from processing such data in hard‐rock environments elsewhere. Remembering that an initial processing job in hard‐rock should always aim to first obtain an overall image of the subsurface and make reflections visible, and then subsequent goals of the workflow could be set to, for example, understanding relative amplitude ratios. The imaging of the known mineralization implies that this survey could likely have been among one of the pioneer studies in the world that demonstrated the capacity of directly imaging massive sulphide deposits using the seismic method. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Description: Abstract Bering Sea sea‐ice during winter 2017‐2018 was the lowest ever recorded. Ecosystem effects of low ice have been observed in the southeastern Bering Sea (SEBS), but never in the northern Bering Sea (NBS). Observations in both systems included weakened water column stratification, delayed spring bloom, and low abundances of large crustacean zooplankton. Summer Cold Pool presence was extremely limited. Young Walleye Pollock production and condition were similar to prior warm years, though catches of other pelagic forage fishes were low. Summer seabird die offs were observed in the NBS, and to lesser extent in the SEBS, and reproductive success was poor at monitored colonies. Selected bottom‐up responses to lack of sea‐ice in the North were similar to those in the South, potentially providing environmental indicators to project ecosystem effects in a lesser‐studied system. Results offer a potential glimpse of the broader Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem under future low‐ice projections.

Description: Abstract We consider a new mechanism for the thermal electron heat fluxes formation over the sunlit polar cap in the presence of the potential jumps that are created by the photoelectron escape along the open magnetic field lines. Photoelectrons traveling into the magnetosphere experience small Coulomb collisional scattering and the low energy part of their spectra becomes trapped between the potential jump and upper ionosphere creating the thermal electron energy fluxes that support the formation of electron temperature at the ionospheric altitudes. This mechanism eliminates the need for the customary practice of assuming arbitrary electron heat fluxes at the upper ionospheric boundary in order to explain the measured electron temperature in the topside ionosphere.

Description: Abstract Observed and model projected sea ice loss enhances warming in the Arctic. We investigate to what extent warming on Greenland can be attributed to changes in the sea ice cover in different parts of the Arctic. Using CMIP5 model projections of the future, we perform multi‐linear regressions to separate the simulated warming on Greenland in two parts; one following global warming and one following regional sea ice changes. This reveals the magnitude and spatial pattern of warming on Greenland, which can be attributed to sea ice loss in different Arctic regions. The results indicate that the impact of sea ice loss is largely confined to the coastal parts of Greenland. We find the strongest links to sea ice loss in adjacent regions; remote regions only have a limited impact. Overall, warming attributable to sea ice variability is a minor contribution, but can be a dominant signal locally in coastal regions.

Description: Abstract In the past 20+ years, GEO Imagers with infrared 6.5 μm bands have been observing the Earth's atmosphere, providing useful information of upper tropospheric moisture. Due to the instrumental differences and local viewing angles in GEO satellites, these observations are not consistent for generating climate data records (CDR). In this study, a methodology has been developed to homogenize the 6.5 μm radiances from the international GEO satellites, to generate a consistent CDR. Validations with IASI radiances from Metops for 2015‐2017 for seven GEO Imager sensors show that the GEO radiances are homogenized well with small standard deviation and biases of the differences (smaller for newer sensors), temporally stable radiometric accuracy, and weak angle dependency (even weaker for sensors with two WV bands). The homogenized 20+ years of consistent 6.5 μm radiance CDR can be used to evaluate reanalysis and climate models, especially the diurnal variation of the model simulation.

Description: Abstract The upper bound of 50 parts per trillion by volume for Mars methane above 5 km established by the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter, substantially lower than the 410 parts per trillion by volume average measured overnight by the Curiosity Rover, places a strong constraint on the daytime methane flux at the Gale crater. We propose that these measurements may be largely reconciled by the inhibition of mixing near the surface overnight, whereby methane emitted from the subsurface accumulates within meters of the surface before being mixed below detection limits at dawn. A model of this scenario allows the first precise calculation of microseepage fluxes at Gale to be derived, consistent with a constant 1.5 × 10−10 kg·m−2·sol−1 (5.4 × 10−5 tonnes·km−2·year−1) source at depth. Under this scenario, only 2.7 × 104 km2 of Mars's surface may be emitting methane, unless a fast destruction mechanism exists.

Description: Abstract Top‐side reverberations off mantle discontinuities are commonly observed at long periods, but their interpretation is complicated because they include both near‐source and near‐receiver reflections. We have developed a method to isolate the station‐side reflectors in large data sets with many sources and receivers. Analysis of USArray transverse‐component data from 3200 earthquakes, using direct S as a reference phase, shows clear reflections off the 410‐ and 660‐km discontinuities, which can be used to map the depth and brightness of these features. Because our results are sensitive to the impedance contrast (velocity and density), they provide a useful complement to receiver‐function studies, which are primarily sensitive to the S velocity jump alone. In addition, reflectors in our images are more spread out in time than in receiver functions, providing good depth resolution. Our images show strong discontinuities near 410 and 660 km across the entire USArray footprint, with intriguing reflectors at shallower depths in many regions. Overall, the discontinuities in the east appear simpler and more monotonous with a uniform transition zone thickness of ~250 km compared to the western United States. In the west, we observe more complex discontinuity topography and small‐scale changes below the Great Basin and the Rocky Mountains, and a decrease in transition‐zone thickness along the western coast. We also observe a dipping reflector in the west that aligns with the top of the high‐velocity Farallon slab anomaly seen in some tomography models, but which also may be an artifact caused by near‐surface scattering of incoming S waves.

Description: Abstract Inelastic rheological behavior, such as viscoelasticity, is increasingly utilized in the modeling of volcanic ground deformation, as elevated thermal regimes induced by magmatic systems may necessitate the use of a mechanical model containing a component of time‐dependent viscous behavior. For the modeling of a given amplitude and footprint of ground deformation, incorporating a viscoelastic regime has been shown to reduce the magma reservoir overpressure requirements suggested by elastic models. This phenomenon, however, is restricted to pressure‐based analyses and the associated creep behavior. Viscoelastic materials exhibit additional constitutive time‐dependent behaviors, determined by the stress and strain states, that are yet to be analyzed in the context of volcanic ground deformation. By utilizing a mechanically homogeneous model space and distinct reservoir evolutions, we provide a comparison of three viscoelastic rheological models, including the commonly implemented Maxwell and Standard Linear Solid configurations, and their time‐dependent behaviors from a fundamental perspective. We also investigate the differences between deformation time series resulting from a pressurization or volume change, two contrasting approaches that are assumed to be equivalent through elastic modeling. Our results illustrate that the perceived influence of viscoelasticity is dependent on the mode of deformation, with stress‐based pressurization models imparting enhanced deformation relative to the elastic models, thus reducing pressure requirements. Strain‐based volumetric models, however, exhibit reduced levels of deformation and may produce episodes of apparent ground subsidence induced by source inflation or vice versa, due to the relaxation of crustal stresses, dependent on whether the reservoir is modeled to be expanding or contracting, respectively.

Description: Abstract Layer 2A, the porous and permeable uppermost igneous oceanic crust, permits the circulation of fluid within the crust, the exchange of dissolved mineral species between the ocean and crust, and the convective dissipation of heat from the crust. We examine the presence, temporal extent, thickness, and evolution of layer 2A using multichannel seismic data collected at 30°S in the South Atlantic across crustal age ranges of 0–70 Ma and half spreading rates of 12–31 mm/year. We observe the layer 2A/2B boundary in 0–48 Myr old crust but not in crust older than ~48 Ma. The thickness of layer 2A in the South Atlantic has substantial variability, with a mean of 760 m and a standard deviation of 290 m. Layer 2A has no systematic change in thickness with age in the South Atlantic, and thickness does not correlate with spreading rate. The crust in the South Atlantic is never fully sealed by sediment cover, which implies that the fluid circulation system in the upper crust never becomes fully closed and the thickness of layer 2A can work as a proxy for the depth at which significant circulation can occur. The disappearance of the layer 2A/2B boundary in older crust implies that fluid circulation within the upper crust continues to occur for at least ~48 Myr after crustal formation in the South Atlantic, after which layer 2A becomes indistinguishable from layer 2B in reflection images.

Description: Abstract There is growing evidence that outgassing through transient fracture networks exerts an important control on conduit processes and explosive‐effusive activity during silicic eruptions. Indeed, the first modern observations of rhyolitic eruptions have revealed that degassed lava effusion may depend upon outgassing during simultaneous pyroclastic venting. The outgassing is thought to occur as gas and pyroclastic debris are discharged through shallow fracture networks within otherwise low‐permeability, conduit‐plugging lava domes. However, this discharge is only transient, as these fractures become clogged and eventually blocked by the accumulation and sintering of hot, melt‐rich pyroclastic debris, drastically reducing their permeability and creating particle‐filled tuffisites. In this study we present the first published permeability measurements for rhyolitic tuffisites, using samples from the recent rhyolitic eruptions at Chaitén (2008‐2009) and Cordón Caulle (2011‐2012) in Chile. To place constraints on tuffisite permeability evolution, we combine (1) laboratory measurements of the porosity and permeability of tuffisites that preserve different degrees of sintering, (2) theoretical estimates on grainsize‐ and temperature‐dependent sintering timescales, and (3) H2O diffusion constraints on pressure‐time paths. The inferred timescales of sintering‐driven tuffisite compaction and permeability loss, spanning seconds (in the case of compaction‐driven sintering) to hours (surface tension‐driven sintering), coincide with timescales of diffusive degassing into tuffisites, observed vent pulsations during hybrid rhyolitic activity (extrusive behaviour coincident with intermittent explosions) and, more broadly, timescales of pressurisation accompanying silicic lava dome extrusion. We discuss herein the complex feedbacks between fracture opening, closing, and sintering, and their role in outgassing rhyolite lavas and mediating hybrid explosive‐effusive activity.

Description: Abstract The rate that Earth's inner core rotates relative to the mantle and crust has been debated for decades. Nonrotational processes, including internal deformation and flow in the outer core, have also been proposed to explain observed seismic changes. The observed changes thus far have been so inconsistent and weak as to hamper convincing interpretation. Here, we examine waves backscattered from within the inner core, which can more robustly evaluate rotation, from two nuclear tests 3 years apart in Novaya Zemlya, Russia. We have extended our previous analysis of these explosions using precise station corrections and the full Large Aperture Seismic Array, thus revealing how the time shifts depend on slowness and lag time and halving our rotation rate estimate. Our derived 0.07°/year inner core superrotation rate from 1971 to 1974 is more robust and slower than most previous estimates and may require interesting reinterpretations of localized signals previously interpreted as inner core rotation.

Description: Abstract A highly stressed area where eventual ruptures have often been observed to nucleate is characterized by low b values of earthquake frequency‐size distribution. Crustal deformation due to the occurrence of large earthquakes causes stress perturbation in nearby regions, so an investigation into spatiotemporal b values can play a crucial role in the distribution of postseismic hazards after the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence along the Futagawa‐Hinagu fault zone, which culminated in the magnitude 7.3 mainshock. Together with an analysis of aftershock decay p value that can be used to infer stressing history, a highly stressed area with a characteristic dimension of 10 km at the southern end of the causative faults was found. Our observation is explained by postseismic deformation due to an afterslip on the causative faults and viscoelastic relaxation model. Similar to the Kumamoto mainshock rupture, which started at a low‐b‐value area, the observed highly stressed area shows a high likelihood of future earthquake ruptures.

Description: Abstract The response of the polar mesosphere to the 11‐year solar cycle is investigated using satellite observations from 1979 to 2018. Solar maximum is expected to cause higher temperatures and lower water vapor in the upper mesosphere, thus reducing the amount of ice in polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs). While PMCs showed a clear anticorrelation with the solar cycle before roughly 2002, this response is absent during recent years. PMCs are controlled by temperature and water vapor, which were examined using mesospheric observations during 1992–2018. The main cause of the diminished solar cycle in PMCs near 68°S and 68°N appears to be a dramatic suppression of the solar cycle response of water vapor. The solar cycle response of temperature also decreases after 2002, but calculations show that the decreased H2O response had more than 3 times the impact on PMCs than the reduction in temperature response.

Description: Abstract We study the 2018 Martian Global Dust Storm (GDS 2018) over the Southern Polar Region using images obtained by the Visual Monitoring Camera (VMC) on board Mars Express during June and July 2018. Dust penetrated into the polar cap region but never covered the cap completely, and its spatial distribution was nonhomogeneous and rapidly changing. However, we detected long but narrow aerosol curved arcs with a length of ~ 2,000 – 3,000 km traversing part of the cap and crossing the terminator into the night side. Tracking discrete dust clouds allowed measurements of their motions that were towards the terminator with velocities up to 100 ms‐1. The images of the dust projected into the Martian limb show maximum altitudes of ~ 70 km but with large spatial and temporal variations. We discuss these results in the context of the predictions of a numerical model for dust storm scenario.

Description: Abstract We present the results of tomographic studies using seismic velocity and attenuation in the area of the Colima Volcanic complex (CVC). Our dataset comprises body waves from local earthquakes recorded by the temporary seismic stations of the CODEX network in the Colima area and a few stations of the regional Mapping the Rivera Subduction Zone (MARS) networks, both deployed in 2006–2008. We obtain three‐dimensional distributions of seismic velocities and attenuation in the crust beneath the CVC area. At shallow depths, we observe a large negative anomaly to the south of CVC, coinciding with the location of the Central Colima Graben. This anomaly may represent debris avalanche deposits, as well as shallow magma reservoirs feeding the eruptions of the presently active Volcán de Colima. In contrast, the volcano edifice of Nevado de Colima, which is built of rigid igneous rocks, is associated with high‐velocity and low‐attenuation anomalies at shallow depths. In the deeper section, a major anomaly with high Vp/Vs, low Vs, and high S wave attenuation corresponds to the location of the regional Tamazula fault. As this represents a mechanically weakened zone of the crust, it may form the pathway that feeds CVC. Both velocity and attenuation models show that the fault‐associated conduit brought magma from the mantle through the lower crust to a depth of 15 km. Then, a light fraction of magma may continue to ascend, forming shallow reservoirs beneath the southern flank of CVC.

Description: Abstract At extensional volcanic arcs, faulting often acts to localize magmatism. Santorini is located on the extended continental crust of the Aegean microplate and is the most active volcano of the Hellenic arc, but the relationship between tectonism and magmatism remains poorly constrained. As part of the PROTEUS experiment, seismic data were acquired across the Santorini caldera and the surrounding region using a dense amphibious array of 〉14,300 marine sound sources and 156 short period seismometers, covering an area 120 km by 45 km. Here, a P‐wave velocity model of the shallow, upper‐crustal structure (〈3 km depth), obtained using travel‐time tomography, is used to delineate fault zones, sedimentary basins, and tectono‐magmatic lineaments. Our interpretation of tectonic boundaries and regional faults are consistent with prior geophysical studies, including the location of basin margins and E‐W oriented basement faults within the Christiana basin west of Santorini. Reduced seismic velocities within the basement east of Santorini, near the Anydros and Anafi basins, are coincident with a region of extensive NE‐SW faulting and active seismicity. The structural differences between the eastern and western sides of Santorini are in agreement with previously proposed models of regional tectonic evolution. Additionally, we find regional magmatism has been localized in NE‐SW trending basin‐like structures that connect the Christiana, Santorini, and Kolumbo volcanic centers. At Santorini itself, we find that magmatism has been localized along NE‐SW trending lineaments that are subparallel to dikes, active faults, and regional volcanic chains. These results show strong interaction between magmatism and active deformation.

Description: Abstract The aftershock productivity is known to strongly vary for different mainshocks of the same magnitude, which cannot be simply explained by random fluctuations. In addition to variable source mechanisms, different rheological properties might be responsible for the observed variations. Here we show, for the subduction zone of northern Chile, that the aftershock productivity is linearly related to the degree of mechanical coupling along the subduction interface. Using the earthquake catalog of Sippl et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JB015384), which consists of more than 100,000 events between 2007 and 2014, and three different coupling maps inferred from interseismic geodetic deformation data, we show that the observed aftershock numbers are significantly lower than expected from the Båth's law. Furthermore, the productivity decays systematically with depth in the uppermost 80 km, while the b value increases. We show that this lack of aftershocks and the observed depth dependence can be simply explained by a linear relationship between the productivity and the coupling coefficient, leading to Båth law only in the case of full coupling. Our results indicate that coupling maps might be useful to forecast aftershock productivity and vice versa.

Description: Abstract Spectral induced polarization spectra were carried out on three graphitic schists and two graphitic sandstones. The microstructural arrangement of graphite of two graphitic schists was studied with thin sections using transmitted and reflected light optical and electron microscopic methods. Chemical maps of selected areas confirm the presence of carbon. The complex conductivity spectra were measured in the frequency range 10 mHz to 45 kHz and in the temperature range +20 °C down to −15 °C. The measured spectra are fitted with a double Cole‐Cole complex conductivity model with one component associated with the polarization of graphite and the second component associated with the Maxwell‐Wagner polarization. The Cole‐Cole exponent and the chargeability are observed to be almost independent of temperature including in freezing conditions. The conductivity and relaxation time are dependent on the temperature in a predictable way. As long as the temperature decreases, the electrical conductivity decreases and the relaxation time increases. A finite element model is able to reproduce the observed results. In this model, we consider an intragrain polarization mechanism for the graphite and a change of the conductivity of the background material modeled with an exponential freezing curve. One of the core sample (a black schist), very rich in graphite, appears to be characterized by a very high conductivity (approximately 30 S/m). Two induced polarization profiles are discussed in the area of Thorens. The model is applied to the chargeability data to map the volumetric content of graphite.