ALBERT

Description: The Cassini Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) observed an occultation of the Sun by the water vapor plume at the south polar region of Saturn's moon Enceladus. The Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spectrum is dominated by the spectral signature of H2O gas, with a nominal line-of-sight column density of 0.90 ± 0.23 × 1016 cm−2 (upper limit of 1.0 × 1016 cm−2). The upper limit for N2 is 5 × 1013 cm−2, or

Description: A decadal change in the frequency of dust outbreaks for April over East Asia using World Meteorological Organization (WMO) synoptic data was identified. The causes of the decadal change can be defined in terms of aeolian erosivity (i.e., ability of wind to cause erosion represented by wind speed) and erodibility (i.e., susceptibility of soil and land surface to wind erosion represented by the threshold wind speed for dust outbreak). Dust outbreak frequency (fDO) increased at many stations in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, northeastern China, and the Hexi Corridor from the 1990s to the 2000s. Especially, remarkable increases were observed for Mongolia. Strong wind frequency (fu〉ut5%) decreased or changed little over the period of study, and the 5th percentile of the threshold wind speed for dust outbreak (ut5%) decreased at many stations in Mongolia, eastern Inner Mongolia, and northeastern China. This suggests changes in erodibility factors increased fDO in these regions. There are stations where fu〉ut5% increased and ut5% remained relatively constant in western Inner Mongolia and the Hexi Corridor. This suggests changes in the erosivity factor increased fDO at these locations. The change in erodibility is linked, in part, to the effect of dead leaves of grasses in spring, which are the residue of vegetation in summer from the previous year, which can cause an increase in the threshold wind speed.

Description: Studies into the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on regional summer monsoon rainfall have focused on a black carbon-induced enhancement and a sulfate-induced suppression. The latter encompasses significant Asian and non-Asian sources, but their relative roles in forcing historical global and regional monsoon trends are largely unexplored. Using targeted 20th century coupled climate simulations, designed to isolate the impact from anthropogenic aerosols, we show that Asian aerosols induce a weak suppression of global summer monsoon, confined to the East Asian region. The addition of non-Asian aerosols generates an enhancement and broadening of cooler temperatures over Europe and Asia relative to the ambient oceans, supporting stronger northerly flows that further suppress Asian monsoon rainfall. Furthermore, atmospheric convection is directed away from the Asian monsoon regions, resulting in an equatorward shift in rainfall. Our results highlight the importance of the non-Asian aerosols in exacerbating the impact of Asian aerosols on global monsoon rainfall, particularly across Asia.

Description: The impact of climate change upon groundwater has an increasing profile in the literature but there is little guidance on selecting Global Climate Models (GCMs), downscaling methods or hydrological models. This paper quantifies the relative uncertainties inherent in projections of future recharge contributed by multiple GCMs, downscaling methods and hydrological models at three locations across southern Australia. Results highlight that the choice of GCM is the largest source of uncertainty, with a median range between the highest and lowest GCM of 53% of the historical recharge for a given downscaling method and hydrological model. The downscaling method is the next largest source of uncertainty with a median range of 44% and the choice of hydrological model is the source of the least uncertainty with a median range of 24%. These results strongly suggest that impact studies should use multiple GCMs and give careful consideration to the choice of downscaling methods.

Description: We study the separate impacts of changing atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) and stratospheric ozone concentrations on past (1960–2010) and future (2010–2100) Southern Ocean conditions. To this end we employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean model with interactive stratospheric chemistry. In our model we separately prescribe i) GHGs that monotonically increase to 2100 and ii) ozone depleting substances (ODSs) that rapidly increase to a maximum in 1995 and then slowly return to 1960 values around 2100, following moderate emission scenarios. Past GHG and ODS changes in our model drive, in about equal measure in the annual mean, poleward intensified surface winds which act to strengthen the sub polar meridional ocean circulation cell and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Future GHG-induced oceanic changes continue nearly monotonically to 2100, while the ODS-induced ACC transport peaks, and then reverses, a couple of decades after the ODS maximum in 1995. The ODS impact on ACC transport exceeds the corresponding GHG impact up to the second quarter of the 21st century, a result that highlights the importance of often-neglected stratospheric ozone trends for the simulation of the ocean circulation.

Description: We use dissolved silicon together with its “geochemical twin” germanium for the first time as a hydrologic tracer to study water delivery to the stream during storm events in the Rio Icacos watershed, Puerto Rico. Ge and Si were measured on base flow, stormflow, springwater, and soil water samples. Compositions of all of these waters appear to reflect varying contributions from three components, which we attribute to solutes released from bedrock weathering (groundwater), from short-term soil-water interaction (quick soil water), and longer-term soil-water interaction (matrix soil water). Base flow stream waters have high Si and moderate Ge (Ge/Si ratio ∼0.29 μmol/mol), consistent with a predominantly bedrock weathering source as indicated by their similarity with water sampled from springs emerging from the saprolite-bedrock boundary on a hillslope landslide scar. During storm events there is a shift toward more dilute compositions (but higher Ge/Si ratios) similar to those measured on water samples from temporary depression storage and overland flow (quick soil water). Geochemical mass balance shows that 80%–90% of the stream chemistry can be explained by mixing groundwater with this quick soil water composition, which we infer to reflect new water traveling as shallow throughflow. Stream water δ18O values decrease to more negative values typical of precipitation supporting rapid delivery of rainwater to the stream channel during stormflow. The third component, with a Ge-rich composition characteristic of soil matrix water sampled by tension lysimeters, is required to explain higher stream water Ge/Si ratios measured during hydrograph recession. We infer from this an additional, slower, and less dominant pathway for delivery of soil water to the stream channel.

Description: Acceleration of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Helheim, Kangerdlugssuaq and Jakobshavn Isbræ, accounted for a substantial portion of the ice sheet's mass loss over the past decade. Rapid changes in their discharge, however, make their cumulative mass-change uncertain. We derive monthly mass balance rates and cumulative balance from discharge and surface mass balance (SMB) rates for these glaciers from 2000 through 2010. Despite the dramatic changes observed at Helheim, the glacier gained mass over the period, due primarily to the short-duration of acceleration and a likely longer-term positive balance. In contrast, Jakobshavn Isbræ lost an equivalent of over 11 times the average annual SMB and loss continues to accelerate. Kangerdlugssuaq lost over 7 times its annual average SMB, but loss has returned to the 2000 rate. These differences point to contrasts in the long-term evolution of these glaciers and the danger in basing predictions on extrapolations of recent changes.

Description: Reconstructions of the spatial pattern of recent multi-decadal sea level trends in the Indian Ocean (IO) indicate a zonally-extended band in the southern tropics where sea level has substantially fallen between the 1960s and 1990s; the decline is consistent with the observed subsurface cooling associated with a shoaling thermocline in this region. Here the origin and spatio-temporal characteristics of these trends are elucidated by a sequence of ocean model simulations. Whereas interannual variability in the southwestern tropical IO appears mainly governed by IO atmospheric forcing, longer term changes in the south tropical IO involve a strong contribution from the western Pacific via wave transmission of thermocline anomalies through the Indonesian Archipelago, and their subsequent westward propagation by baroclinic Rossby waves. The late 20th-century IO subsurface cooling trend reversed in the 1990s, reflecting the major regime shift in the tropical Pacific easterlies associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Description: We present a predictive, multiscale modeling framework for chemotaxis in porous media. This model results from volume averaging the governing equations for bacterial transport at the microscale and is expressed in terms of effective medium coefficients that are predicted from the solution of the associated closure problems. As a result, the averaged chemotactic velocity is an explicit function of the attractant concentration field and diffusivity, rather than an empirical effective chemotactic sensitivity coefficient. The model was validated by comparing the transverse bacterial concentration profiles with experimental measurements for Escherichia coli HCB1 in a T-sensor. The averaged chemotactic velocity predicted by the model was found to be within the range of values reported in the literature. Reasonable agreement (approximately 10% mean absolute error) between theory and experiments was found for several flow rates. In order to assess the potential for decreasing the computational demands of the model, the macroscale domain was divided into subdomains for the coupling of bacterial transport to that of the attractant. Sensitivity analysis was performed regarding the number of subdomains chosen, and the results indicate that bacterial transport (as measured by concentration profiles) was not highly affected by this choice. Overall, these results suggest that the predictive, multiscale modeling framework is reliable for modeling chemotaxis in porous media when chemotactic transport is significant compared to convective transport.

Description: Polar ionospheric heaters have generated ULF/ELF/VLF waves by modulating the auroral electrojet at D/E region altitudes. We present theoretical/computational results indicating that modulated F-region HF heating can generate ionospheric currents even in the absence of electrojet currents. The ELF currents are driven in a two-step process. First, the pressure gradient associated with F-region electron heating drives a local diamagnetic current. This acts as an antenna to inject Magneto-Sonic (MS) waves in the ionospheric plasma. Second, the electric field of the magneto-sonic wave drives Hall currents when it reaches the E region of the ionosphere. The Hall currents act as a secondary antenna that injects waves in the Earth-Ionosphere Waveguide below and Shear Alfven waves upwards to the conjugate regions. The paper examines the scaling and limitations of the concept and suggests proof-of-principle experiments using the HAARP ionospheric heater.

Description: Thermospheric density simultaneously observed by the CHAMP and GRACE satellites in both the pre-dawn and afternoon local time sectors undergoes significant decrease across both hemispheres during the major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) in January 2009. This decrease is largest in the equatorial region near the subsolar latitude, reaching ∼30% at 325 km, and 45% at 475 km altitude in the afternoon sector. This large density drop demonstrates a substantial cooling of about 50 Kelvin in the equatorial upper thermosphere. Furthermore, the cooling varies clearly with longitude in terms of magnitude and the timing of the maximum cooling. Thermosphere cooling can have important impact on the ionosphere, as indicated by simultaneous plasma observations. Though many questions remain about what causes the cooling, our results open a new perspective for investigating the global coupling of the lower and upper atmosphere during SSWs.

Description: Water temperature determines the spatial distribution of fish species, including cold-water fish such as trout, and is driven by the balance of the heat flux across the water surface and the heat flux across the sediment surface. In this study, a modified equilibrium temperature model was developed for cold-water streams that includes the effect of groundwater inflow. The modified equilibrium temperature model gives estimates of daily average stream temperature based on climate conditions, riparian shading, stream width, and groundwater input rate and temperature. For a small tributary stream with relatively uniform riparian shading, the modified equilibrium temperature was found to be a good predictor of daily average stream temperature, with a root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of 1.2°C. The modified equilibrium temperature model also gave good estimates (1.4°C RMSE) of daily average stream temperature for a larger stream when riparian shading was averaged over sufficiently long distances. A sensitivity analysis using the modified equilibrium temperature model confirmed that water temperature in cold-water streams varies strongly with riparian shading, stream width, and both groundwater inflow rate and temperature. These groundwater parameters therefore need to be taken into account when climate change impacts on stream temperature are projected. The stream temperature model developed in this study is a useful tool to characterize temperature conditions in cold-water streams with different levels of riparian shading and groundwater inputs and to assess the impact of future land use and climate change on temperature in these streams.

Description: The year 2010 featured a widespread drought in the Amazon rain forest, which was more severe than the “once-in-a-century” drought of 2005. Water levels of major Amazon tributaries fell drastically to unprecedented low values, and isolated the floodplain population whose transportation depends upon on local streams which completely dried up. The drought of 2010 in Amazonia started in early austral summer during El Niño and then was intensified as a consequence of the warming of the tropical North Atlantic. An observed tendency for an increase in dry and very dry events, particularly in southern Amazonia during the dry season, is concomitant with an increase in the length of the dry season. Our results suggest that it is by means of a longer dry season that warming in the tropical North Atlantic affects the hydrology of the Amazon Rivers at the end of the recession period (austral spring). This process is, sometimes, further aggravated by deficient rainfall in the previous wet season.

Description: In summer 2010 an exceptional heatwave occurred over western Russia. At the same time sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were anomalously warm in the Barents Sea and the Arabian Sea. We investigate a possible link between these two SST anomalies by prescribing SST anomalies separately and combined in an ensemble of climate model simulations. The positive surface air temperature response over western Russia is strengthened if both SST forcings are combined. While the SST anomalies in the Arabian Sea are likely due to natural variability the sea surface in the Barents Sea is expected to warm in future and the sea-ice cover to decline enhancing the warming. Thus, we hypothesize that heatwaves over Europe and Russia will likely become more frequent as a result of the dynamic response of the atmosphere in addition to what is expected from the change in mean temperature.

Description: Many volcanoes exhibit temporal changes in their degassing process, from rapid gas puffing to lava fountaining and long-lasting quiescent passive degassing periods. This range of behaviors has been explained in terms of changes in gas flux and/or magma input rate. We report here a simple laboratory experiment which shows that the non-Newtonian rheology of magma can be responsible, alone, for such intriguing behavior, even in a stationary gas flux regime. We inject a constant gas flow-rate Q at the bottom of a non-Newtonian fluid column, and demonstrate the existence of a critical flow rate Q* above which the system spontaneously alternates between a bubbling and a channeling regime, where a gas channel crosses the entire fluid column. The threshold Q* depends on the fluid rheological properties which are controlled, in particular, by the gas volume fraction (or void fraction) $\phi$. When $\phi$ increases, Q* decreases and the degassing regime changes. Non-Newtonian properties of magma might therefore play a crucial role in volcanic eruption dynamics.

Description: Acoustic emissions and tremor-like signals are widely recorded in laboratory experiments. We are able to isolate the physical origins of these signals using high resolution nanoseismic analysis. The use of a picometer-sensitive, wide-band sensor array permits us to determine force-time functions and focal mechanisms for discrete events found amid the “noise” of friction, similar to how low frequency earthquakes are found buried within tremor. We interpret these localized events to be the rupture of μm-sized contacts, known as asperities. We performed stick-slip experiments on plastic/plastic and rock/rock interfaces and found a systematic difference between the nano earthquakes: the rock interface produces very rapid (

Description: Rapid sea-ice retreat over the Arctic Ocean has a leading role in Arctic amplification. The sea-ice extent dramatically recovers during every freezing season, so despite the recent summer sea-ice retreat, there must be extraordinary heat exchange between the lower atmosphere and upper ocean. However, the underlying mechanisms for this remain uncertain. Here we show that autumn frontal cyclogenesis is a crucial event in the Arctic air-sea coupled system. Our shipboard Doppler radar and intensive radiosonde observations at the marginal ice zone detected an explosive frontal cyclogenesis, with coupling between upper and lower tropospheric vortices. The thermal contrast between ocean and ice surfaces is likely favorable to cyclogenesis with an identical life-cycle to that at mid-latitudes. This suggests a northward shift of meridional heat transport. The 1.5 K temperature decrease in the upper ocean after the cold front has passed reveals that a large amount of heat is transported into the atmosphere. This is an invaluable example of the fact that sea ice retreat contributes to polar amplification of surface air temperature increase.

Description: Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%–50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

Description: The focus in the search for more reliable predictions in ungauged basins (PUB) has generally been on reducing uncertainty in watershed models (mainly their parameters). More recently, however, we seem to remember that the ultimate objective is not to define the parameters of a specific model but to understand the watershed: What behavior do we expect the ungauged watershed to exhibit? And what behavior should not occur in a particular ungauged watershed? The answers to these questions actually provide additional information that can be assimilated in watershed models for uncertainty reduction in PUB. This extension to hydrologic modeling approaches provides a quantitative link between watershed modeling and statistical hydrology as well as process hydrology that has to be explored. We witness a convergence of approaches—Bayesian, set theoretic, and optimization based—toward utilizing this link. The result is an opportunity for the (quantitative) dialog between modelers, statistical hydrologists, and experimentalists. We close our discussion of this development by presenting new and exciting research questions that we now have to address.

Description: Concept development simulation with distributed, physics-based models provides a quantitative approach for investigating runoff generation processes across environmental conditions. Disparities within data sets employed to design and parameterize boundary value problems used in heuristic simulation inevitably introduce various levels of bias. The objective was to evaluate the impact of boundary value problem complexity on process representation for different runoff generation mechanisms. The comprehensive physics-based hydrologic response model InHM has been employed to generate base case simulations for four well-characterized catchments. The C3 and CB catchments are located within steep, forested environments dominated by subsurface stormflow; the TW and R5 catchments are located in gently sloping rangeland environments dominated by Dunne and Horton overland flows. Observational details are well captured within all four of the base case simulations, but the characterization of soil depth, permeability, rainfall intensity, and evapotranspiration differs for each. These differences are investigated through the conversion of each base case into a reduced case scenario, all sharing the same level of complexity. Evaluation of how individual boundary value problem characteristics impact simulated runoff generation processes is facilitated by quantitative analysis of integrated and distributed responses at high spatial and temporal resolution. Generally, the base case reduction causes moderate changes in discharge and runoff patterns, with the dominant process remaining unchanged. Moderate differences between the base and reduced cases highlight the importance of detailed field observations for parameterizing and evaluating physics-based models. Overall, similarities between the base and reduced cases indicate that the simpler boundary value problems may be useful for concept development simulation to investigate fundamental controls on the spectrum of runoff generation mechanisms.

Description: Analytical solutions are obtained for optimization formulations that minimize energy used for groundwater pumping. The formulations choose pumping rates at groundwater wells while insuring that total pumpage meets a specified demand. Such formulations might be appropriate for an urban water supply or a large−scale agricultural irrigation system. Solutions are found by applying stationarity conditions. The solutions produce simple and physically meaningful requirements on drawdowns at each well. Under certain conditions, pumping rates are optimal when the sum of the nonpumping lift and two times the drawdown at each pumping well takes a constant value across the domain. The results are examined for steady and transient conditions. The results are based on only a few assumptions on the modeled system: the response of drawdown with head is linear, and all pumping activity occurs during the same time periods. Implications of these results for well field operation are suggested.

Description: Water pricing schedules often contain significant nonlinearities, such as the increasing block tariff (IBT) structure that is abundantly applied for residential users. The IBT is frequently supported as a good tool for achieving the goals of equity, water conservation, and revenue neutrality but seldom has been grounded on efficiency justifications. In particular, existing literature on water pricing establishes that although efficient schedules will depend on demand and supply characteristics, IBT cannot usually be recommended. In this paper, we consider whether the explicit inclusion of scarcity considerations can strengthen the appeal of IBT. Results show that when both demand and costs react to climate factors, increasing marginal prices may come about as a response to a combination of water scarcity and customer heterogeneity. We derive testable conditions and then illustrate their application through an estimation of Portuguese residential water demand. We show that the recommended tariff schedule hinges crucially on the choice of functional form for demand.

Description: In situ laser diffractometers characterize the suspended particle size distribution (PSD) by measuring laser-generated light scattered off small particles over a range of small forward angles. In environments with low particulate concentrations or high ambient light conditions the ratio of natural downwelling sunlight to scattered laser light sensed by the photodetectors is high and measurements are influenced. Here, we evaluate the effect of the ambient light field intensity on measurements made with a Laser In Situ Scattering and Transmissometry (LISST) 100X type B instrument. Paired light-dark scattering distributions are recorded over a range of underwater light intensities in high-turbidity and low-turbidity water. Light measurements displayed large erroneous concentrations of particles in the smallest size bin (1.25–1.48 μm) and showed effects over the full range of the PSD. Ambient light was found to exhibit the same constant distribution over the instrument photodetectors in both water samples, although the magnitude of the response, in laser counts per unit ambient light intensity, was PSD dependent. A technique for postprocessing data to remove the influence of light is presented for moored deployment and vertical profile data collected at Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada, United States. While measurements removed of the light effect were successfully reconstructed, the technique may not be applicable to data where the PSD or the LISST orientation relative to the sun direction change rapidly or when light intensities are high enough to quench the instrument photodetectors. Ambient light was found to have negligible effects on PSD measurements in Lake Tahoe was below intensities of ∼30 W m−2.

Description: Spatial and temporal trends in stream chemistry were investigated in a large (1600 km2) alpine watershed in the southern Rocky Mountains of Colorado to help understand mechanisms of streamflow generation. We observed linear increases of concentrations of chemical constituents in streamflow as accumulated drainage area increased along the main channel of Saguache Creek. We tested two conceptual models of streamflow generation against our stream chemistry observations. One model is essentially two-dimensional and treats streamflow generation at the large watershed scale as the aggregation of runoff responses from individual hillslopes, primarily surface and shallow subsurface flow paths. Alternatively, a fully three-dimensional conceptual model treats streamflow generation as being controlled by a distribution of large-scale groundwater flow paths as well as surface and shallow subsurface flow paths. The structure and magnitude of groundwater contributions in streamflow as a function of increasing scale provided a key distinction between these two conceptual models. End-member mixing analysis and measurements of hydraulic head gradients in streambeds were used to quantify basin-scale groundwater contributions to streamflow with increasing spatial scale in the Saguache Creek watershed. Our data show that groundwater contributions are important in streamflow generation at all scales and, more importantly, that groundwater contributions to streamflow do increase with increasing watershed scale. These results favor the three-dimensional conceptual model in which long groundwater flow paths provide a streamflow generation process at large scales that is not operative at smaller scales. This finding indicates that large watersheds may be more than simply the aggregation of hillslopes and small catchments.

Description: Microbial biodiversity in groundwater and soil presents a unique opportunity for improving characterization and monitoring at sites with multiple contaminants, yet few computational methods use or incorporate these data because of their high dimensionality and variability. We present a systematic, nonparametric decision-making methodology to help characterize a water quality gradient in leachate-contaminated groundwater using only microbiological data for input. The data-driven methodology is based on clustering a set of molecular genetic-based microbial community profiles. Microbes were sampled from groundwater monitoring wells located within and around an aquifer contaminated with landfill leachate. We modified a self-organizing map (SOM) to weight the input variables by their relative importance and provide statistical guidance for classifying sample similarities. The methodology includes the following steps: (1) preprocessing the microbial data into a smaller number of independent variables using principal component analysis, (2) clustering the resulting principal component (PC) scores using a modified SOM capable of weighting the input PC scores by the percent variance explained by each score, and (3) using a nonparametric statistic to guide selection of appropriate groupings for management purposes. In this landfill leachate application, the weighted SOM assembles the microbial community data from monitoring wells into groupings believed to represent a gradient of site contamination that could aid in characterization and long-term monitoring decisions. Groupings based solely on microbial classifications are consistent with classifications of water quality from hydrochemical information. These microbial community profile data and improved decision-making strategy compliment traditional chemical groundwater analyses for delineating spatial zones of groundwater contamination.

Description: Legal scholars and jurists have identified several criteria (e.g., hydrology, climate, population, and historical water use) to guide equitable allocation of transboundary rivers among riparian claimants. Are these criteria used in practice, such that a quantitative pattern emerges from actual water-sharing agreements regarding factors affecting allocations? To address this, we study interstate compacts, the principal mechanism for allocating the waters of transboundary rivers within the United States. We develop a georeferenced data set and construct variables representing conditions in state-based watersheds of 14 rivers at the times of compact ratification. A state's water allocation share of a compact serves as the dependent variable, and a set of explanatory variables is derived from legal and political theories. We estimate allocation shares using both ordinary least squares (OLS) and bootstrap regressions, and we apply two alternative specifications of the factors affecting compact allocations, one with and one without political variables. Estimated coefficients on variables for land area, population, prior water use, riparian position, and Congressional committee chair are statistically significant in the OLS regressions. The preferred OLS specification, which includes political variables, provides a good fit (R2 = 0.84). We also find that OLS and bootstrap regressions have a similar ability to predict state allocation shares. We discuss how the results could be used as a reference point in negotiations over new compacts or international river treaties and as a basis to identify existing compacts with statistical outliers.

Description: Transverse mixing of solutes in steady state transport is of utmost importance for assessing mixing-controlled reactions of compounds that are continuously introduced into the subsurface. Classical spatial moments analysis fails to describe mixing because the tortuous streamlines in heterogeneous formations cause plume meandering, squeezing, and stretching, which affect transverse spatial moments even if there is no mass transfer perpendicular to the direction of flow. For transverse solute mixing, however, the decisive process is the exchange of solute mass between adjacent stream tubes. We therefore reformulate the advection-dispersion equation in streamline coordinates (i.e., in terms of the potential and the stream function values) and analyze how flux-related second central moments of plumes increase with dropping hydraulic potential. We compare the ensemble behavior of these second central moments in random two-dimensional heterogeneous flow fields with the moments in an equivalent homogeneous system, thus defining an equivalent effective transverse dispersion coefficient. Unlike transverse macrodispersion coefficients derived by traditional moment analysis, our mixing-relevant, flux-related coefficient does not increase with travel distance. We present closed-form solutions for the mean enhancement of transverse mixing by heterogeneity in two-dimensional isotropic media for linear laws of local-scale transverse dispersion. The mixing enhancement factor increases with the log conductivity variance but remains fairly low. We also evaluate the variance of our cumulative measure of transverse mixing, showing that heterogeneity causes substantial uncertainty of mixing. The analytical expressions are compared to numerical Monte Carlo simulations for various values of log conductivity variance, indicating good agreement with the analytical results at low variability. In the numerical simulations, we also consider nonlinear models of local-scale transverse dispersion.

Description: Hydrologic modelers often need to know which method of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is best suited for a particular catchment. Traditionally, QPE methods are verified and benchmarked against independent rain gauge observations. However, the lack of spatial representativeness limits the value of such a procedure. Alternatively, one could drive a hydrological model with different QPE products and choose the one which best reproduces observed runoff. Unfortunately, the calibration of conceptual model parameters might conceal actual differences between the QPEs. To avoid such effects, we abandoned the idea of determining optimum parameter sets for all QPE being compared. Instead, we carry out a large number of runoff simulations, confronting each QPE with a common set of random parameters. By evaluating the goodness-of-fit of all simulations, we obtain information on whether the quality of competing QPE methods is significantly different. This knowledge is inferred exactly at the scale of interest—the catchment scale. We use synthetic data to investigate the ability of this procedure to distinguish a truly superior QPE from an inferior one. We find that the procedure is prone to failure in the case of linear systems. However, we show evidence that in realistic (nonlinear) settings, the method can provide useful results even in the presence of moderate errors in model structure and streamflow observations. In a real-world case study on a small mountainous catchment, we demonstrate the ability of the verification procedure to reveal additional insights as compared to a conventional cross validation approach.

Description: Field line resonances (FLRs) are important for transferring energy from fast mode waves to shear Alfvén waves in the Earth's magnetosphere. Using simultaneous multi-satellite observations from THEMIS and the IMAGE ground magnetometer array, we report on the transfer of energy from compressional magnetopause undulations through an FLR to the ionosphere. Energy diversion from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere took place at the FLR: we find net energy flux there to have comparable values in the radial and the field-aligned directions. The field-aligned energy flux, when mapped to the ionosphere, was 0.70 mW/m2 and consistent with the inferred Joule dissipation rate at that time. IMAGE's regional monitoring of wave activity reveals that the temporal evolution of the FLR wave power and energy transfer were correlated with the amplitude profile of magnetopause undulations, confirming these waves to be the FLR driver.

Description: We report observations of two negative polarity gigantic jets sufficiently near very high-frequency (VHF) lightning mapping networks that the associated lightning characteristics and charge transfer could be investigated. In both cases the gigantic jet-producing flash began as ordinary intracloud lightning with upper level channels attempting to exit the cloud, and then produced the upward gigantic jet. Neither flash had developed channels to ground, confirming that the major charge transfer during gigantic jets occurred between the cloud and ionosphere. The leader progression of one event was detected at altitudes above 20 km, demonstrating the possibility of detecting and tracking the propagation of negative jets above the cloud with VHF techniques.

Description: The characteristics of the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones and its impact on the midlatitude flow are examined in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) multimodel ensemble prediction system (EPS). Ten ensemble forecasts initialized prior to ET for five tropical cyclones in 2008 are investigated using an empirical orthogonal function analysis and fuzzy clustering methodology. Each forecast contains 231 members from eight different global EPS. The EPS contributing to TIGGE differ in their spread and their contributions to the different scenarios. Some of the individual EPS are generally confined to only a few scenarios, whereas others contribute regularly to almost all. TIGGE contains more development scenarios than European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) EPS but the full range of development scenarios is only found with the ECMWF included in the multimodel EPS.

Description: I address a range of topics that provide the sociopolitical-technological setting for my professional life. I discuss some influential features of post–World War II world geopolitics, landmark technological developments of that era, and the resulting follow-up technologies that have made it possible to approach various problems in hydrology and water resources. I next address societal needs that have driven developments in hydrology and water resources engineering and follow with a discussion of the modern foundations of our science and what I think are the principal issues in hydrology. I pose three community challenges that when accomplished should advance hydrologic science: data network needs for improving the water budgets at all scales, characterizing subsurface water flow paths, and the information archiving and mining needs from instruments that will generate substantially richer data detail than have been used for most hydrologic work to the present. I then discuss several hydrologic and water resource risk-based decision issues that matter to society to illustrate how such risks have been addressed successfully in the past. I conclude with a long-term community “grand challenge,” the coupled modeling of the ocean-atmosphere-landform hydrologic cycle for the purpose of long–lead time hydrologic prediction.

Description: The 3D dynamic model of the plasmasphere developed by Pierrard and Stegen (2008) has been coupled with the ionospheric IRI model. In addition to the electron number density, the plasmaspheric model is also developed to include the temperature profiles of the different particles and ion composition at altitudes from 60 to 2000 km. Results of the model for the F region trough are compared with coincident observations of middle and top ionosphere by means of satellite tomography and radar measurements. A good match between the model and observations supports the idea that the present model is useful for investigating physical mechanism involved in the plasmasphere-ionosphere coupling and for acquiring information about the plasmaspheric behaviour based on ionospheric observations.

Description: Alongshore transport was estimated from the gridded AVISO altimeter data and water level data from NOAA tide gauges (1993–2010) for the northern California Current (NCC) system. The biomass of the cold neritic copepods including Calanus marshallae, Pseudocalanus mimus and Acartia longiremis (dominants in the eastern Bering Sea, coastal Gulf of Alaska, and NCC) was estimated from a 15 year time series of zooplankton samples (1996–2010) collected biweekly at a coastal station 9 km off Newport Oregon U.S.A. The alongshore currents and the biomass of the cold neritic copepods exhibit a strong seasonal pattern and fluctuate in opposite phase: positive alongshore current (from south) leads to low biomass in winter and negative alongshore current (from north) leads to high biomass in summer. When the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is positive, i.e., warm conditions around the northeast Pacific, there is more movement of water from the south in the NCC during winter. When the PDO is negative, there is more movement of water from the north during summer. The mean biomass of cold neritic copepods was positively correlated with the survival rate of juvenile coho salmon and cumulative transport was negatively correlated with coho salmon survival, i.e., in years when a greater portion of the source waters feeding the NCC enters from the north, the greater the salmon survival. We conclude that alongshore transport manifests PDO signals and serves as a linkage between large scale forcing to local ecosystem dynamics.

Description: Composite mean difference analyses are applied to historical sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) data to investigate the spatial dependence of the Pacific climate system response to 11-year solar forcing. Previous work has found that the SST and SLP responses are most clearly detected near the times of sunspot maxima, which occur as much as two years prior to the centers of the broad decadal solar cycle maxima. In January–February, the SLP response at sunspot maximum is nearly the same on either side of the equator, although the amplitude is larger in the winter hemisphere. The solar influence is seen as above normal SLP in the sub-Arctic Pacific, as found previously, and as corresponding positive SLP anomalies in the sub-Antarctic Pacific, as shown here for the first time. These SLP anomalies are associated with previously documented signals at sunspot maxima of greater ocean upwelling and cooling along the Pacific equator, and a poleward extension of the tropical convergence zones in both hemispheres. Previous studies using multiple linear regression methods show the broad decadal solar maxima being associated with the lagged warm response in equatorial Pacific SSTs seen in the composites, which is not inconsistent with the present results. In the South Pacific Ocean, the solar effect is visible in the southern summer in the year before the sunspot number peak. The SST and SLP anomalies in the South Pacific in the solar peaks differ markedly from those in Cold Events (La Niña events) of the Southern Oscillation.

Description: The Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations (NSWE) provide a model for long wave behavior commonly used in tsunami modeling problems in which the scale associated with the surface wavelength is much greater than the ocean depth. This approximation allows for the derivation of the NSWE under the assumptions that the pressure is hydrostatic and the horizontal velocity components uniform along the water column. The present study uses current velocity data acquired by the Kilo Nalu Near-Shore Reef Observatory Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) on the south shore of Oahu (21.288°N, 157.865°W) in the aftermath of the 2006 Kuril tsunami to assess the validity of the NSWE assumptions on the velocity components. ADCP measurements provide information on all three velocity components along the water column, allowing the calculation of terms discarded in the NSWE approximation, containing temporal or vertical derivatives. Comparison of the relative magnitude of terms retained and neglected in the NSWE reveals that in shallow waters (10 m) the size of discarded terms remains smaller, but approaches the order of magnitude of retained terms in the momentum equations. Not all terms present in the equations can be evaluated from the available data, so verification of the assumptions investigated here represents a necessary but not sufficient condition for the validity of the NSWE approximation to model tsunami waves in shallow coastal waters.

Description: The meridional transport of water vapor into the High Arctic, accompanied by dry enthalpy and clouds, impacts the surface radiative forcing. The evolution of one such moist intrusion over 9–11 February 2010 is presented. The event is analyzed using a unique blend of measurements including a new pan-Arctic retrieval of column water vapor from the Microwave Humidity Sounders, water vapor profiles from a Raman lidar and a ground-based microwave radiometer at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL), in Eureka (80°N, 86°W), on Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic. A radiation model reveals the intrusion is associated with a 17 W m−2 average increase in downwelling longwave irradiance. Optically thin clouds, as observed by the lidar, contribute a further 20 W m−2 to the downwelling longwave irradiance at their peak. Intrusion events are shown to be a regular occurrence in the Arctic winter with implications for the understanding of the mechanisms driving Arctic Amplification.

Description: Because of an increasing human pressure on the naturally balanced nitrogen cycle, eutrophication-driven hypoxia and corresponding dead zones have multiplied over the last years. Models are used to predict the nitrogen balances and develop mitigation scenarios for such systems. Due to the very complex interaction of water and nitrogen fluxes, no single model structure has been commonly adopted to describe the fluxes best and modeling results often differ substantially. Relying on a single model prediction only can be therefore highly uncertain. Here we illustrate the potential advantage of using a probabilistic multi-model ensemble approach in comparison to predictions of each of its members. Evaluation of corresponding skills and potential economic values to correctly predict a 2 mg N/L target of total nitrogen concentration in the water flowing out of a catchment in south-west Western Australia is conducted. Results show that the ensemble has always more skill and almost always more potential economic value than any of its four members and that it therefore constitutes a more reliable choice in the decision-making process.

Description: Aqueous chemistry can play a vital role in secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation and aging. A novel analytical approach that allows for simultaneous photo-oxidation and atomization of reacting bulk solutions coupled to an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) investigates aqueous OH oxidation of ambient biogenic SOA, cloud water from a biogenic environment, glyoxal, and mixtures of glyoxal with α-pinene SOA components. This is the first study of aqueous oxidative aging of ambient SOA and cloud water organics. Starting with an AMS-based observational framework, we show that aqueous oxidation of biogenic SOA in the presence of glyoxal can better represent observed atmospheric aging than when glyoxal is absent. Oxidation of glyoxal alongside semi-volatile SOA components leads to the production of highly oxidized SOA.

Description: Erosion and deposition rates estimated from the stratigraphic record frequently exhibit a power-law dependence on measurement interval. This dependence can result from a power-law distribution of stratigraphic hiatuses. By representing the stratigraphic filter as a stochastic process called a reverse ascending ladder, we describe a likely origin of power-law hiatuses, and thus, rate scaling. While power-law hiatuses in certain environments can be a direct result of power-law periods of stasis (no deposition or erosion), they are more generally the result of randomness in surface fluctuations irrespective of mean subsidence or uplift. Autocorrelation in fluctuations can make hiatuses more or less heavy-tailed, but still exhibit power-law characteristics. In addition we show that by passing stratigraphic data backward through the filter, certain statistics of surface kinematics from their formative environments can be inferred.

Description: The likely effects of climate change on the water resources of the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region are investigated using a high-resolution regional climate model (PRECIS) by comparing precipitation simulations of 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 with 1961–1990. The simulations show about a 10% decline in precipitation across the region by both the middle and the end of the century, with considerable variation between countries and international river basins. Results suggest that per capita water resources will not change particularly significantly in southeastern Europe, where they are relatively plentiful and population growth is minimal. However, in much of the Middle East, climate change coupled with population growth is likely to reduce per capita water resources considerably. This will inevitably result in major social, economic, and environmental change in the region. Countries where the required adaptation is likely to be particularly challenging include Turkey and Syria because of the large agricultural workforces, Iraq because of the magnitude of the change and its downstream location, and Jordan because of its meager per capita water resources coupled with limited options for desalination. If the internal water footprint of the region declines in line with precipitation but the total water footprint of the region increases in line with population, then by midcentury, as much as half the total water needs of the region may need to be provided through desalination and imported in the form of virtual water.

Description: A destructive earthquake (Mw = 6.1) occurred on the northeast end of the Palu segment of the East Anatolian Fault System (EAFS, eastern Turkey) on 8 March 2010. The spatial distribution of aftershocks suggests that the Palu segment does not terminate to the east of Palu town but extends in the N50°E direction where it has produced a 30 km right stepover. Aftershock depths indicate a seismogenic brittle zone of about 15 km depth. The stress changes on the segments due to recorded events might have loaded more than 0.5 bars of stress on the NE end of the Palu segment and the SW end of the Göynük segment. Therefore, a future earthquake on both segments may occur sooner than was expected before the occurrence of the Mw 6.1 earthquake on 8 March 2010.

Description: One factor limiting the understanding of the climate impact from contrails and aircraft induced cloud modifications is the accurate determination of their optical depth. To this end, 14 contrails were sampled for 2756 s with instruments onboard the research aircraft Falcon during the CONCERT (CONtrail and Cirrus ExpeRimenT) campaign in November 2008. The young (

Description: We review the human actions, proximal stressors and ecological responses for floodplain forests Australia's largest river system—the Murray-Darling Basin. A conceptual model for the floodplain forests was built from extensive published information and some unpublished results for the system, which should provide a basis for understanding, studying and managing the ecology of floodplains that face similar environmental stresses. Since European settlement, lowlands areas of the basin have been extensively cleared for agriculture and remnant forests heavily harvested for timber. The most significant human intervention is modification of river flows, and the reduction in frequency, duration and timing of flooding, which are compounded by climate change (higher temperatures and reduced rainfall) and deteriorating groundwater conditions (depth and salinity). This has created unfavorable conditions for all life-history stages of the dominant floodplain tree (Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh.). Lack of extensive flooding has led to widespread dieback across the Murray River floodplain (currently 79% by area). Management for timber resources has altered the structure of these forests from one dominated by large, widely spreading trees to mixed-aged stands of smaller pole trees. Reductions in numbers of birds and other vertebrates followed the decline in habitat quality (hollow-bearing trees, fallen timber). Restoration of these forests is dependent on substantial increases in the frequency and extent of flooding, improvements in groundwater conditions, re-establishing a diversity of forest structures, removal of grazing and consideration of these interacting stressors.

Description: Throughout the global mid-ocean ridge system, transform faults offset spreading centers. Conductive cooling may be more efficient beneath transform faults, producing a thickened lithosphere that directs melt away from the transform. However, recent observations of thickened crust along transform faults at fast ridges suggest melt redistribution toward transforms, intra-crustal melt production, or efficient extraction of melt. We apply a 3-D model of melt migration and extraction along an oceanic transform domain bounded by ridge segments. Melt is assumed to travel vertically before collecting and migrating beneath a low-permeability boundary inclined towards the ridge axis. A melt extraction zone, which may be geologically interpreted as the presence of faults and/or dikes leading to rapid lateral and vertical melt migration toward plate boundaries, affects the pattern of crustal accretion at segmented ridges. First, we examine a generic ridge-transform-ridge geometry and then a model that represents the Siqueiros transform on the East Pacific Rise. On the basis of crustal thickness variations within the intra-transform spreading centers along the fast-slipping Siqueiros fault, we constrain the presence of a melt extraction zone within 10 km of the transform zone.

Description: Aboriginal vegetation burning practices and their role in the Australian environment remains a central theme of Australian environmental history. Previous studies have identified a decline in the Australian summer monsoon during the late Quaternary and attributed it to land surface-atmosphere feedbacks, related to Aboriginal burning practices. Here we undertake a comprehensive, ensemble model evaluation of the effects of a decrease in vegetation cover over the summer monsoon region of northern Australia. Our results show that the climate response, while relatively muted during the full monsoon, was significant for the pre-monsoon season (austral spring), with decreases in precipitation, higher surface and ground temperatures, and enhanced atmospheric stability. These early monsoon season changes can invoke far-reaching ecological impacts and set-up land surface-atmosphere feedbacks that further accentuate atmospheric stability.

Description: The spatial skill of four climate field reconstruction (CFR) methods is investigated using pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs) based on two millennial-length general circulation model simulations. Results indicate that presently available global and hemispheric CFRs for the Common Era likely suffer from spatial uncertainties not previously characterized. No individual method produced CFRs with universally superior spatial error statistics, making it difficult to advocate for one method over another. Northern Hemisphere means are shown to be insufficient for evaluating spatial skill, indicating that the spatial performance of future CFRs should be rigorously tested for dependence on proxy type and location, target data and employed methodologies. Observed model-dependent methodological performance also indicates that CFR methods must be tested across multiple models and conclusions from PPEs should be carefully evaluated against the spatial statistics of real-world climatic fields.

Description: Boreal winter 2009–2010 made headlines for cold anomalies in many countries of the northern mid-latitudes. Northern Europe was severely hit by this harsh winter in line with a record persistence of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In the present study, we first provide a wider perspective on how unusual this winter was by using the recent 20th Century Reanalysis. A weather regime analysis shows that the frequency of the negative NAO was unprecedented since winter 1939–1940, which is then used as a dynamical analog of winter 2009–2010 to demonstrate that the latter might have been much colder without the background global warming observed during the twentieth century. We then use an original nudging technique in ensembles of global atmospheric simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) and radiative forcings to highlight the relevance of the stratosphere for understanding if not predicting such anomalous winter seasons. Our results demonstrate that an improved representation of the lower stratosphere is necessary to reproduce not only the seasonal mean negative NAO signal, but also its intraseasonal distribution and the corresponding increased probability of cold waves over northern Europe.

Description: Isoprene, a compound emitted by vegetation, could be a major contributor to secondary organic aerosols (SOA) in the atmosphere. The main evidence for this contribution were the 2-methylbutane-1,2,3,4-tetraols, or 2-methyltetrols (2-methylerythritol and 2-methylthreitol) present in ambient aerosols. In this work, the four stereoisomers of these tetraols were analyzed in aerosols from Aspvreten, Sweden. 2-C-methyl-D-erythritol was found in excess over its enantiomer in the Spring/Summer, by up to 29% in July. This clearly indicated some biological origins for this enantiomer, consistent with its well-documented production by plants and other living organisms. In addition, a minimum of 20 to 60% of the mass of racemic tetraols appeared from biological origin. Thus, the SOA mass produced by isoprene in the atmosphere is less than what indicated by the 2-methyltetrols in aerosols. Our results also demonstrate that stereochemical speciation can distinguish primary and secondary organic material in atmospheric aerosols.

Description: Multiple volcanic observations conducted at Mt. Asama, Japan, provide evidence of a link between single very-long-period (VLP) seismic pulses and volcanic gas emissions. SO2 flux measurements were conducted on 2 June 2009, when Mt. Asama was producing ash-free eruptions with VLP pulses. Gas bursts from a vent at the crater bottom following the VLP pulses provided an excellent opportunity to examine the relation directly. The SO2 emission for each eruption was calculated by integrating high temporal SO2 flux data obtained by the SO2 imaging system and subtracting the contribution from quiescent degassing from fumaroles around the crater bottom. A seismic moment of VLP pulse was estimated by the waveform inversion. We observed seven eruptions and obtained the proportional relation between VLP pulse moment and SO2 emission. The relation determined is consistent with the VLP source model; these observational results are the first report of a quantitative comparison between single VLP pulse moment and volcanic gas emission.

Description: Volcanic edifice construction at the Earth's surface significantly modifies the stress field within the underlying crust with two main implications for caldera formation. First, tensile rupture at the Earth's surface is favored at the periphery, which enables ring fault formation. Second, edifice formation amplifies the amount of pressure decrease occurring within a magma reservoir before the eruption stops. Taking into account both of these effects, caldera formation can be initiated during a central eruption of a pre-existing volcano even when assuming elastic behaviour for the surrounding crust. Providing the roof aspect ratio is small enough, conditions for caldera formation by reservoir withdrawal can be reached whatever the reservoir shape is. However ring fault initiation is easier for laterally elongated reservoirs.

Description: There is currently a distinct gap between what climate science can provide and information that is practically useful for (and needed by) natural resource managers. Improved understanding, and model representations, of interactions between the various climate drivers (both regional and global scale), combined with increased knowledge about the interactions between climate processes and hydrological processes at the regional scale, is necessary for improved attribution of climate change impacts, forecasting at a range of temporal scales and extreme event risk profiling (e.g., flood, drought, and bushfire). It is clear that the science has a long way to go in closing these research gaps; however, in the meantime water resource managers in the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere, require hydroclimatic projections (i.e., seasonal to multidecadal future scenarios) that are regionally specific and, importantly, take into account the impacts, and associated uncertainties, of both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change. The strengths and weaknesses of various approaches for supplying this information are discussed in this paper.

Description: We use the Budyko framework to calculate catchment-scale evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) as a function of two climatic factors, precipitation (P) and evaporative demand (Eo = 0.75 times the pan evaporation rate), and a third parameter that encodes the catchment properties (n) and modifies how P is partitioned between E and Q. This simple theory accurately predicted the long-term evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in southeast Australia. We extend the theory by developing a simple and novel analytical expression for the effects on E and Q of small perturbations in P, Eo, and n. The theory predicts that a 10% change in P, with all else constant, would result in a 26% change in Q in the MDB. Future climate scenarios (2070–2099) derived using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate model output highlight the diversity of projections for P (±30%) with a correspondingly large range in projections for Q (±80%) in the MDB. We conclude with a qualitative description about the impact of changes in catchment properties on water availability and focus on the interaction between vegetation change, increasing atmospheric [CO2], and fire frequency. We conclude that the modern version of the Budyko framework is a useful tool for making simple and transparent estimates of changes in water availability.

Description: A partially penetrating well of length Lw and radius Rw starts to pump at constant discharge Qw at t = 0 from an unconfined aquifer of thickness D. The aquifer is of random and stationary conductivity characterized by KG (geometric mean), σY2 (log conductivity variance), and I and Iv (the horizontal and vertical integral scales). The flow problem is solved under a few simplifying assumptions commonly adopted in the literature for homogeneous media: Rw/Lw $\ll$ 1, linearization of the free surface condition, and constant drainable porosity n. Additionally, it is assumed that Rw/I 〈 1 and Lw/Iv $\gg$ 1 (to simplify the well boundary conditions) and that a first-order approximation in σY2 (extended to finite σY2 on a conjectural basis) is adopted. The solution is obtained for the mean head field $\langle$H(R, z, t)$\rangle$ and the associated water table equation. The main result of the analysis is that the flow domain can be divided into three zones for $\langle$H$\rangle$: (1) the neighborhood of the well R $\ll$ I, where $\langle$H$\rangle$ = (Qw/LwKA)h0(R, z, tKefuv/nD), with h0 being the zero-order solution pertaining to a homogeneous and isotropic aquifer, KA being the conductivity arithmetic mean, and Kefuv being the effective vertical conductivity in mean uniform flow, (2) an exterior zone R ⪆ I in which $\langle$H$\rangle$ = (Qw/LwKefuh)h0(R$\sqrt{K_{efuv}/K_{efuh}}$, z, tKefuv/nD), with Kefuh being the horizontal effective conductivity, and (3) an intermediate zone in which the solution requires a few numerical quadratures, not carried out here. The application to pumping tests reveals that identification of the aquifer parameters for homogeneous and anisotropic aquifers by commonly used methods can be applied for the drawdown measured in an observation well of length Low $\gg$ Iv (to ensure exchange of space and ensemble head averages) in the second zone in order to identify Kefuh, Kefuv, and n. In contrast, the use of the drawdown in the well (first zone) leads to an overestimation of Kefuh by the factor KA/Kefuh.

Description: During summer 2006 eddy correlation CO2 fluxes were measured in the Greenland Sea using a novel system set-up with two shrouded LICOR-7500 detectors. One detector was used exclusively to determine, and allow the removal of, the bias on CO2 fluxes due to sensor motion. A recently published correction method for the CO2-H2O cross-correlation was applied to the data set. We show that even with shrouded sensors the data require significant correction due to this cross-correlation. This correction adjusts the average CO2 flux by an order of magnitude from −6.7 × 10−2 mol m−2 day−1 to −0.61 × 10−2 mol m−2 day−1, making the corrected fluxes comparable to those calculated using established parameterizations for transfer velocity.

Description: Calcium (Ca) has declined to levels threatening aquatic biota in lakes on the eastern Canadian Shield. Predictive models for future changes in lake Ca are generally based on catchment-scale studies, but these models rarely account for unmeasured sources of Ca supply that are common in the nearshore areas of developed lakes. In this study we utilize up to 29 years of hydrological and water chemistry data for three lakes in central Ontario that differ in degree of human intervention to demonstrate that shoreline development may exert large effects on Ca mass balances. In the relative absence of shoreline development, Red Chalk Lake exhibited what we consider to be the normal response, a reduction in Ca load from the catchment over the last three decades, leading to a reduction in lake export and lake Ca concentration. Calcium load, export, and lake water Ca concentration also fell in Harp Lake, but less than in Red Chalk Lake, because Ca loads were elevated by human activities in Harp Lake's moderately developed shoreline area. By contrast, Dickie Lake experienced an exceptional change in Ca dynamics: both export and lake concentrations rose because of elevated load from the shoreline area linked to the use of dust suppressants on gravel roads. Reductions in both stream Ca concentration and flow volume have led to calcium decline in streams and lakes. Long-term soil acidification processes and climatic variability with its link to hydrology can explain the general pattern of Ca decline in lakes on the south-central Canadian Shield. However, given the widespread lakeshore development and use of dust suppressants on gravel roads, predictions of lake Ca levels need to take into account nearshore activities, especially those that augment rates of Ca supply.

Description: Using projections from two coupled climate models (HadCM3C and HadGEM2-AO), we consider the effect on 21st century sea-level rise (SLR) of mitigation policies relative to a scenario of business-as-usual (BAU). Around a third of the global-mean SLR over the century is avoided by a mitigation scenario under which global-mean near surface air temperature stabilises close to the Copenhagen Accord limit of a 2°C increase. Under BAU (a variant of the A1B scenario) the model-averaged projected SLR for 2090–2099 relative to 1980–1999 is 0.29 m–0.51 m (5%–95% uncertainties from treatment of land-based ice melt); under mitigation (E1 scenario) it is 0.17 m–0.34 m. This reduction is primarily from reduced thermal expansion. The spatial patterns of regional SLR are fairly dissimilar between the models, but are qualitatively similar across scenarios for a particular model. An impacts model suggests that by the end of the 21st century and without upgrade in defences around 55% of the 84 million additional people flooded per year globally under BAU (from SLR alone) could be avoided under such mitigation. The above projections of SLR follow the methodology of the IPCC Fourth Assessment. We have, however, also conducted a sensitivity study of SLR and its impacts where the possibility of accelerated ice sheet dynamics is accounted for.

Description: The 2010 Chile earthquake of Mw 8.8 generated a destructive tsunami in the near field that resulted in warnings across the Pacific. Numerical modeling shows trapping and amplification of the energy over the continental shelf and slope. A spectral analysis of the computed surface elevation reveals resonance oscillations with periods up to 129 min along the central Chile coast. The temporal and spectral data provides an explanation for the long-period waves recorded by DART buoys and the prolonged wave activities and belated impacts reported by residents and survey teams. The present study of the 2010 Chile tsunami together with those of the 2006 Kuril and 2009 Samoa tsunamis has directly associated shelf resonance with impacts on insular and continental coasts and provided a tool to identify at-risk localities in tsunami hazard assessment.

Description: Accurate description of the soil water retention curve (SWRC) at low water contents is important for simulating water dynamics and biochemical vadose zone processes in arid environments. Soil water retention data corresponding to matric potentials of less than −10 MPa, where adsorptive forces dominate over capillary forces, have also been used to estimate soil specific surface area (SA). In the present study, the dry end of the SWRC was measured with a chilled-mirror dew point psychrometer for 41 Danish soils covering a wide range of clay (CL) and organic carbon (OC) contents. The 41 soils were classified into four groups on the basis of the Dexter number (n = CL/OC), and the Tuller-Or (TO) general scaling model describing water film thickness at a given matric potential ( 10. A strong correlation between the ratio of the two surface area estimates and the Dexter number was observed and applied as an additional scaling function in the TO model to rescale the soil water retention curve at low water contents. However, the TO model still overestimated water film thickness at potentials approaching ovendry condition (about −800 MPa). The semi–log linear Campbell-Shiozawa-Rossi-Nimmo (CSRN) model showed better fits for all investigated soils from −10 to −800 MPa and yielded high correlations with CL and SA. It is therefore recommended to apply the empirical CSRN model for predicting the dry part of the water retention curve (−10 to −800 MPa) from measured soil texture or surface area. Further research should aim to modify the more physically based TO model to obtain better descriptions of the SWRC in the very dry range (−300 to −800 MPa).

Description: We present analysis of infrasonic signals produced by a large Earth-impacting fireball, believed to be among the most energetic instrumentally recorded during the last century that occurred on 8 October, 2009 over Indonesia. This extraordinary event, detected by 17 infrasonic stations of the global International Monitoring Network, generated stratospherically ducted infrasound returns at distances up to 17 500 km, the greatest range at which infrasound from a fireball has been detected since the 1908 Tunguska explosion. From these infrasonic records, we find the total source energy for this bolide as 8–67 kilotons of TNT equivalent explosive yield, with the favored best estimate near ∼50 kt. Global impact events of such energy are expected only once per decade and study of their impact effects can provide insight into the impactor threshold levels for ground damage and climate perturbations.

Description: Inverted models of the deep mantle show a decorrelation between maps of shear VS and compressional VP wave velocities, an anti-correlation between the bulk sound velocity V$\phi$ and VS and a much larger variability of VS with respect to VP, expressed by large values of the ratio of their relative lateral variations. We carried out synthetic tests to verify if these features could be artifacts, explained by limits in tomographic resolution: synthetic data are calculated for an “input” model, and linearly inverted, as in tomography, to find an “output” model. Comparing the values of the aforementioned parameters for two different chemically homogeneous input models with the associated reconstructed output ones, we found that artifacts caused by realistic data noise and the nonuniform distribution of seismic sources and stations over the globe are not sufficient to introduce the features previously described. We confirm that compositional effects are required to explain them.

Description: This paper analyzes the effects of different hydrological mechanisms on the solute response in watershed stream networks. Important processes are due to the hydraulic and chemical retention of reactive solutes in transient storage zones and the cumulative consequences of these processes from a single transport pathway as well as from the network of transport pathways. Temporal moments are derived for a distributed stream network and for a compartment-in-series model. The temporal moments are evaluated and are utilized to derive formal expressions for translating the network parameters into compartmental model parameters. The analysis reveals that in addition to the hydraulic and chemical retention processes, the morphological and topological properties of a watershed have a distinct impact on the central temporal moments in terms of averaging of the solute load weighted distances as well as the transport parameters over the network. Kinetic (rate-limited) transient storage affects second-order and higher central temporal moments and thus has a secondary effect on the parameterization of compartmental models. Additional considerable contributions to all temporal moments are introduced when parameter variability along transport pathways is considered. The paper demonstrates an improved model outcome for phosphorus transport in a small Swedish watershed by accounting for the overall network effects when parameterizing a compartment-in-series model.

Description: The estimation of hydrological model parameters by calibration to field data is a critical step in the modeling process. However, calibration often fails because of parameter correlation. Here it is shown that time-lapse gravity data can be combined with hydraulic head data in a coupled hydrogeophysical inversion to decrease parameter correlation in groundwater models. This is demonstrated for a model of riverbank infiltration where combined inversion successfully constrains hydraulic conductivity and specific yield in both an analytical and a numerical groundwater model. A sensitivity study shows that time-lapse gravity data are especially useful to constrain specific yield. Furthermore, we demonstrate that evapotranspiration, and riverbed conductance are better constrained by coupled inversion to gravity and head data than to head data alone. When estimating the four parameters simultaneously, the six correlation coefficients were reduced from unity when only head data were employed to significantly lower values when gravity and head data were combined. Our analysis reveals that the estimated parameter values are not very sensitive to the choice of weighting between head and gravity data over a large interval of relative weights.

Description: Horizontal acoustic Doppler current profilers (H-ADCPs) can be employed to estimate river discharge based on water level measurements and flow velocity array data across a river transect. A new method is presented that accounts for the dip in velocity near the water surface, which is caused by sidewall effects that decrease with the width to depth ratio of a channel. A boundary layer model is introduced to convert single-depth velocity data from the H-ADCP to specific discharge. The parameters of the model include the local roughness length and a dip correction factor, which accounts for the sidewall effects. A regression model is employed to translate specific discharge to total discharge. The method was tested in the River Mahakam, representing a large river of complex bathymetry, where part of the flow is intrinsically three-dimensional and discharge rates exceed 8000 m3 s−1. Results from five moving boat ADCP campaigns covering separate semidiurnal tidal cycles are presented, three of which are used for calibration purposes, whereas the remaining two served for validation of the method. The dip correction factor showed a significant correlation with distance to the wall and bears a strong relation to secondary currents. The sidewall effects appeared to remain relatively constant throughout the tidal cycles under study. Bed roughness length is estimated at periods of maximum velocity, showing more variation at subtidal than at intratidal time scales. Intratidal variations were particularly obvious during bidirectional flow conditions, which occurred only during conditions of low river discharge. The new method was shown to outperform the widely used index velocity method by systematically reducing the relative error in the discharge estimates.

Description: Canada's Queen Elizabeth Islands contain ∼14% of Earth's glacier and ice cap area. Snow accumulation on these glaciers is low and varies little from year to year. Changes in their surface mass balance are driven largely by changes in summer air temperatures, surface melting and runoff. Relative to 2000–2004, strong summer warming since 2005 (1.1 to 1.6°C at 700 hPa) has increased summer mean ice surface temperatures and melt season length on the major ice caps in this region by 0.8 to 2.2°C and 4.7 to 11.9 d respectively. 30–48% of the total mass lost from 4 monitored glaciers since 1963 has occurred since 2005. The mean rate of mass loss from these 4 glaciers between 2005 and 2009 (−493 kg m−2 a−1) was nearly 5 times greater than the 1963–2004 average. In 2007 and 2008, it was 7 times greater (−698 kg m−2 a−1). These changes are associated with a summer atmospheric circulation configuration that favors strong heat advection into the Queen Elizabeth Islands from the northwest Atlantic, where sea surface temperatures have been anomalously high.

Description: Shrinking glaciers and snowpacks are reducing discharge in rivers that drain the central Rocky Mountain region – water that supports downstream societies and ecosystems of western North America. However, a new 5200-year record of Lake Athabasca water-level variations, which serves as a sensitive gauge of past changes in alpine-sourced river discharge, reveals that western Canadian society has developed during a rare period of unusually abundant water ‘subsidized’ by prior glacier expansion. As the ‘alpine water tap’ closes, much drier times are ahead. Future water availability is likely to become similar to the mid-Holocene when Lake Athabasca dropped 2–4 m below the twentieth-century mean. Regions dependent on high-elevation runoff (i.e., western North America) must prepare to cope with impending water scarcity of magnitude not yet experienced since European settlement.

Description: Multi-decadal weakening trend of the equatorial Pacific easterly winds since 1960 has reversed after 1993. The trend reversal has induced cooling (shallow thermocline) trend in the equatorial western Pacific before 1993, followed by a warming (deep thermocline) trend from 1993 to the present. All available atmospheric reanalysis products corroborate the trend reversal during the two multi-decadal periods. The magnitudes of the multi-decadal trends of the easterly winds, however, differ among the reanalysis products. The trend reversals of regional ocean circulations are assessed using linear regressions between wind and transport anomalies in an eddy-permitting numerical model, suggesting that since 1993 the Indonesian Throughflow and the Leeuwin Current transports have also reversed their multi-decadal weakening trends.

Description: Seven high-resolution (0.3–0.6 m depth intervals), 1-D vertical profiles of the δ²H of pore water were collected across a 300 km2 study area in southern Saskatchewan, Canada, to define the vertical controls on solute transport in a 〉120 m thick, two-layered aquitard system. The 1-D profiles were augmented with an existing δ²H profile collected from a previous study. The surficial aquitard in the area consists of Quaternary deposits (either glacial till or lacustrine deposits; 13 to 128 m thick) underlain by an upper Cretaceous claystone aquitard (80–110 m thick). The shape of the individual δ²H profiles and associated 1-D transport modeling suggest diffusion is the regionally dominant vertical transport mechanism across the aquitards. The profile shape is controlled by the thickness of the Quaternary deposit and the δ²H value at the upper boundary, which coincides with the depth of the water table. The upper boundary δ²H value varies considerably across the area (−149‰ to −101‰), perhaps due to differences in local hydrological conditions (e.g., slope, aspect, infiltration) across the landscape. Modeling of all profiles shows the timing for till deposition and the timing of climate change during the Holocene are consistent across the area (∼30 ka and 7–10 ka before the present, respectively), corroborating other studies. This study provides insights into the hydrogeologic controls on solute transport in an aquitard system and associated geologic and climatic changes for a prairie region over the past 30 ka, and improves our understanding of initial and time-dependent transport boundary conditions for the study of aquitards.

Description: Recent studies suggest that the overturning circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) region shows a weak sensitivity to overlying wind stress changes, due to balancing of changes in the eddy-induced and Eulerian mean transports. Using an eddy-permitting coupled climate model, we analyze the response of the ACC transport, and associated water mass subduction rates, in response to an idealized poleward shift and intensification of the westerlies. As in previous studies, we find a small increase in the net ACC transport, and a poleward shift in the mean position of the ACC flow. However, the ACC is restructured, with the Subantarctic Front (SAF) and Polar Front (PF) branches shifting poleward by between 0.9° and 2.5° of latitude, resulting in a weaker ACC flow in both the SAF and PF zones. The wind stress anomaly drives a stronger northward Ekman transport of cool surface waters, deepening the winter mixed layer and causing a 12.7 Sv increase in the subduction of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) north of the SAF zone and a 6.5 Sv increase in the subduction of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) within the SAF and PF zones. Our results suggest that changes in the wind stress restructure the Southern Ocean large-scale circulation, including the flow of the ACC in its primary jets, and that this affects the formation rates of SAMW and AAIW in this complex region.

Description: We develop a novel method of parameterization for spatial hydraulic property characterization to mitigate the challenges associated with the nonlinear inverse problem of subsurface flow model calibration. The parameterization is performed by the projection of the estimable hydraulic property field onto an orthonormal basis derived from the grid connectivity structure. The basis functions represent the modal shapes or harmonics of the grid, are defined by a modal frequency, and converge to special cases of the discrete Fourier series under certain grid geometries and boundary assumptions; therefore, hydraulic property updates are performed in the spectral domain and merge with Fourier analysis in ideal cases. Dependence on the grid alone implies that the basis may characterize any grid geometry, including corner point and unstructured, is model independent, and is constructed off-line and only once prior to flow data assimilation. We apply the parameterization in an adaptive multiscale model calibration workflow for three subsurface flow models. Several different grid geometries are considered. In each case the prior hydraulic property model is updated using a parameterized multiplier field that is superimposed onto the grid and assigned an initial value of unity at each cell. The special case corresponding to a constant multiplier is always applied through the constant basis function. Higher modes are adaptively employed during minimization of data misfit to resolve multiscale heterogeneity in the geomodel. The parameterization demonstrates selective updating of heterogeneity at locations and spatial scales sensitive to the available data, otherwise leaving the prior model unchanged as desired.

Description: The impact of the tropical oceanic forcing on the East Asian winter-to-early spring climate is investigated by implementing the pacemaker technique in the slab mixed-layer version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM2.1 atmospheric general circulation model. The results demonstrate that oceanic forcing from the deep tropical eastern Pacific (DTEP) can instigate the Pacific-East Asia teleconnection and that the Philippine Sea anticyclone and the associated air-sea interaction are crucial for the realization of the impact of the teleconnection over East Asia. Comparison among cases in which the pace-maker is designated over the DTEP region, DTEP plus the Indian Ocean, and the whole tropical oceans indicates that tropical oceanic forcing outside of the Niño regions can also exert significant influence on East Asian climate. As a result, a total of 30% of the variance of the East Asian precipitation index can be accounted for by the tropical oceanic forcing.

Description: The prevailing wet climate in the western Amazon is not favorable to the natural occurrence of fires. Nevertheless, the current process of clearing of humid forests for agriculture and cattle ranching has increased the vulnerability of the region to the spread of fires. Using meteorological stations precipitation and the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Active-Fires (AF) during 2000–2009, we show that fire anomalies vary closely with July-August-September (JAS) precipitation variability as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The precipitation variability is, in turn, greatly determined by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). We develop a linear regression model to relate local fire activity to an index of the NTA-SST. By using seasonal forecasts of SST from a coupled model, we are able to predict anomalous JAS fire activity as early as April. We applied the method to predict the severe 2010 JAS season, which indicated strongly positive seasonal fire anomalies within the 95% prediction confidence intervals in most western Amazon. The spatial distribution of predicted SPI was also in accordance with observed precipitation anomalies. This three months lead time precipitation and fire prediction product in the western Amazon could help local decision makers to establish an early warning systems or other appropriate course of action before the fire season begins.

Description: Fluctuations in the positioning of major ocean currents can influence ecosystem dynamics, but previously the technology has been lacking to make direct observational assessments. Here, we test the hypothesis that positioning of the North Pacific Current (NPC) is related to biological attributes of the central-northern California Current Ecosystem (CCE). To test this hypothesis we use newly available data from the Argo array and compare it with a suite of well-known ecosystem indicators over 6 years, 2002 through 2007. We found increased biomass and productivity when the NPC was shifted poleward, and suggest that positioning influences advective transport of nutrients and perhaps key planktonic organisms from the sub-arctic domain thereby enhancing mid to upper trophic level species. This study is significant because climate change is predicted to cause poleward shifts in the westerlies that drive ocean currents and positioning of large marine gyre systems. Rather than reducing ecosystem productivity, poleward shifts in positioning of the NPC may be beneficial for many species of the central-northern CCE.

Description: We assess the vertical distribution of cloud feedbacks in coupled climate models, taking care to distinguish between cloud feedbacks and a change in cloud forcing. We show that the effect of cloud changes on the longwave fluxes provides a strong positive feedback that is broadly consistent across models. In contrast, the effect of cloud changes on the shortwave fluxes ranges from a modest negative to a strong positive feedback, and is responsible for most of the intermodel spread in net cloud feedback. The feedback from high clouds is positive in all models, and is consistent with that anticipated by the Proportionately Higher Anvil Temperature hypothesis over the tropics. In contrast, low cloud cover is responsible for roughly three-quarters of the difference in global mean net cloud feedback among models, with the largest contributions from regions associated with low-level subtropical marine cloud systems.

Description: We present a mechanism for wind-driven sea ice export from the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait for the period 1979–2007, using the output of a high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model. By explicitly calculating the components of the atmospheric momentum budget, we show that not large scale synoptic forcing (LSC), but mainly thermal wind forcing (THW) causes the persistent northerly jet (the Greenland Sea Jet) over Fram Strait. The jet results from horizontal temperature gradients in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), set up between cold ABL-air over the sea ice covered western Greenland Sea and the relatively warmer ABL over the ice-free eastern Greenland Sea. From 1993 onwards we find a negative trend in THW, due to a stronger response to climate warming of the ABL over the sea ice covered ocean, compared to that over the ice free ocean. Although on average LSC is smaller than THW, year to year variations in LSC explain most of the interannual variability in the sea ice area flux through Fram Strait (R = 0.81). A small positive trend is found for LSC, partly compensating the decrease in THW in recent years.

Description: We present a new technique for identifying and quantifying the discharge of long residence time, regional groundwater to rivers using naturally occurring tracers measured within the river. Terrigenic 4He and 222Rn, synoptically sampled along a 100 km reach in the Fitzroy River in northern Western Australia, are used to identify areas of groundwater inflow to the river and to distinguish shallow, local and deep, regional groundwater. Models of tracer transport in the river can be numerically optimized to calculate total groundwater discharge and to separate regional and local discharge fractions. Discharge of regional groundwater composes close to 15% of the total groundwater discharge along the entire reach, varying spatially along the reach from 0% to 100% of total groundwater discharge. This method should be applicable in river systems where groundwater with elevated terrigenic helium could be discharging to the river. The ability to separate locally from regionally derived groundwater discharge has significant implications for calculating catchment water budgets, for predicting catchment response to changes in precipitation, and for sustainable management of the catchment.

Description: Electromagnetic (EM) remote-sensing techniques are demonstrated to be sensitive to gas hydrate concentration and distribution and complement other resource assessment techniques, particularly seismic methods. To fully utilize EM results requires knowledge of the electrical properties of individual phases and mixing relations, yet little is known about the electrical properties of gas hydrates. We developed a pressure cell to synthesize gas hydrate while simultaneously measuring in situ frequency-dependent electrical conductivity (σ). Synthesis of methane (CH4) hydrate was verified by thermal monitoring and by post run cryogenic scanning electron microscope imaging. Impedance spectra (20 Hz to 2 MHz) were collected before and after synthesis of polycrystalline CH4 hydrate from polycrystalline ice and used to calculate σ. We determined the σ of CH4 hydrate to be 5 × 10−5 S/m at 0°C with activation energy (Ea) of 30.6 kJ/mol (−15 to 15°C). After dissociation back into ice, σ measurements of samples increased by a factor of ∼4 and Ea increased by ∼50%, similar to the starting ice samples.

Description: Results from recent marine geophysical surveys offer a new perspective for characterizing the evolution processes of volcanic islands. In 2006, cruises FOREVER and ERODER 1 investigated the submarine flanks and the surrounding abyssal plain of La Réunion (Indian Ocean) to obtain for the first time a complete geophysical survey of the area. Combined analyses of these data reveal major differences in the evolution of the two emerged volcanoes, Piton des Neiges and Piton de la Fournaise. We show that debris avalanche deposits extend on the abyssal plain only offshore the active Piton de la Fournaise volcano attesting the occurrence of large flank-collapse events. The absence of such deposits offshore Piton des Neiges and the presence of compressive structures within the sedimentary unit below the edifice support a mechanism of slow deformation of this volcano, such as sliding or spreading. The slow deformation of Piton des Neiges has led to numerous secondary submarine slope instabilities and favored some unconfined turbidity flows which generated large sediment waves running downward all around the island. This study proposes a new model using the most complete marine data set available: slow deformation controls the evolution of Piton des Neiges whereas Piton de la Fournaise (formed on the flanks of a pre-existing edifice) experienced catastrophic, large flank-collapse events.

Description: We have studied sulfuric acid aerosol nucleation in an atmospheric pressure reaction chamber using a 580 MeV electron beam to ionize the volume of the reaction chamber. We find a clear contribution from ion-induced nucleation and consider this to be the first unambiguous observation of the ion-effect on aerosol nucleation using a particle beam under conditions that resemble the Earth's atmosphere. By comparison with ionization using a gamma source we further show that the nature of the ionizing particles is not important for the ion-induced component of the nucleation. This implies that inexpensive ionization sources - as opposed to expensive accelerator beams - can be used for investigations of ion-induced nucleation.

Description: Hydrocarbons released following the Deepwater Horizon (DH) blowout were found in deep, subsurface horizontal intrusions, yet there has been little discussion about how these intrusions formed. We have combined measured (or estimated) observations from the DH release with empirical relationships developed from previous lab experiments to identify the mechanisms responsible for intrusion formation and to characterize the DH plume. Results indicate that the intrusions originate from a stratification-dominated multiphase plume characterized by multiple subsurface intrusions containing dissolved gas and oil along with small droplets of liquid oil. Unlike earlier lab measurements, where the potential density in ambient water decreased linearly with elevation, at the DH site it varied quadratically. We have modified our method for estimating intrusion elevation under these conditions and the resulting estimates agree with observations that the majority of the hydrocarbons were found between 800 and 1200 m.

Description: Mean May–September Potomac River streamflow was reconstructed from 950–2001 using a network of tree ring chronologies (n = 27) representing multiple species. We chose a nested principal components reconstruction method to maximize use of available chronologies backward in time. Explained variance during the period of calibration ranged from 20% to 53% depending on the number and species of chronologies available in each 25 year time step. The model was verified by two goodness of fit tests, the coefficient of efficiency (CE) and the reduction of error statistic (RE). The RE and CE never fell below zero, suggesting the model had explanatory power over the entire period of reconstruction. Beta weights indicated a loss of explained variance during the 1550–1700 period that we hypothesize was caused by the reduction in total number of predictor chronologies and loss of important predictor species. Thus, the reconstruction is strongest from 1700–2001. Frequency, intensity, and duration of drought and pluvial events were examined to aid water resource managers. We found that the instrumental period did not represent adequately the full range of annual to multidecadal variability present in the reconstruction. Our reconstruction of mean May–September Potomac River streamflow was a significant improvement over the Cook and Jacoby (1983) reconstruction because it expanded the seasonal window, lengthened the record by 780 years, and better replicated the mean and variance of the instrumental record. By capitalizing on variable phenologies and tree growth responses to climate, multispecies reconstructions may provide significantly more information about past hydroclimate, especially in regions with low aridity and high tree species diversity.

Description: Well-validated rainfall-runoff models are able to capture the relationships between rainfall and streamflow and to reliably estimate initial catchment states. While future streamflows are mainly dependent on initial catchment states and future rainfall, use of the rainfall-runoff models together with estimated future rainfall can produce skilful forecasts of future streamflows. This is the basis for the ensemble streamflow prediction system, but this approach has not been explored in Australia. In this paper, two conceptual rainfall-runoff models, together with rainfall ensembles or analogues based on historical rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI), were used to forecast streamflows at monthly and 3-monthly scales at two catchments in east Australia. The results showed that both models forecast monthly streamflow well when forecasts for all months were evaluated together, but their performance varied significantly from month to month. Best forecasting skills were obtained (both monthly and 3 monthly) when the models were coupled with ensemble forcings on the basis of long-term historical rainfall. SOI-based resampling of forcings from historical data led to improved forecasting skills only in the period from September to December at the catchment in Queensland. For 3 month streamflow forecasts, best skills were in the period from April to June at the catchment in Queensland and in the period from October to January for the catchment in New South Wales, both of which were the periods after the rainy season. The forecasting skills are indicatively comparable to the statistical forecasting skills using a Bayesian joint probability approach. The potential approaches for improved hydrologic modeling through conditional parameterization and for improved forecasting skills through advanced model updating and bias corrections are also discussed.

Description: We present the first simultaneous observations of mesospheric neutral calcium, its ion, and electron density over Arecibo obtained on adjacent nights in December 2009. A good correlation is seen between Sporadic-E and ion layers while the neutrals have different characteristics. The measurements reveal that average abundances in electron densities and ions to be at a maximum on 9 December with values ∼4.8 × 109 electrons cm−2 and 3.4 × 107 ions cm−2, while those of the neutrals to be low, of the order of 9.7 × 106 atoms cm−2. The neutral abundance maximizes with values of 1.8 × 107 atoms cm−2 on 10 December, when both ions and electrons display weak layers with abundances almost 3 times lower than on the previous night. A significant correlation between the ions and neutrals indicates that sudden enhancements are caused by advection while a poor correlation is related to chemistry. This study reveals that the ion-neutral coupling is most efficient between 92 and 95 km. Also, the ion-to-neutral ratio is dependent on the strength of the ions or Sporadic-E and can exceed 3.0 during such events. We present evidence of neutralization of the ionized layers occurring on scales of a few tens of minutes for the first time. This agrees fairly well with the lifetimes of Ca+ against neutralization as predicted by recent ion-neutral reactions.

Description: We perform a full dynamic inversion at low frequencies of the 16 December 2007 (Mw = 6.7) northern Chile earthquake that we model as a simple elliptical patch. We use two different stress-friction end-member models: asperities and barriers, finding similar results. The inversions are performed for strong motion data filtered between 0.02 and 0.5 Hz. Eleven geometrical and stress and friction parameters are inverted using the neighbourhood algorithm. The optimum solutions have relative errors lower than 0.21. The earthquake rupture has duration of less than 5 s and propagates at sub-shear speed. The rupture area is similar to that of the aftershock distribution and the seismic moment is 0.95 · 1019 Nm. We derive the friction law parameters from the models situated close to the optimum solution using a Monte Carlo technique. The results show a strong trade-off between applied stress and frictional resistance. We find that the distribution of friction models collapses into a finite zone of the space of moment and non-dimensional parameter $\kappa$. We conclude that it is possible to determine the friction law from near field seismograms, but there is a strong trade-off between friction and initial stress.

Description: Sediments are a pervasive source of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in rivers, lakes, estuaries, and oceans and may constitute a long-term reservoir of human disease. Previous attempts to quantify the flux of FIB across the sediment-water interface (SWI) are limited to extreme flow events, for which the primary mechanism of bacterial release is disruption and/or erosion of the sediment substrate. Here we report measurements of FIB flux across the SWI in a turbulent stream that is not undergoing significant erosion. The stream is formed by the steady discharge of bacteria-free disinfected and highly treated wastewater effluent to an earthen channel harboring high concentrations of FIB in the sediment from in situ growth. The flux j″ of FIB across the SWI, estimated from mass balance on FIB measurements in the water column, scales linearly with the concentration of bacteria in sediment pore fluids Cpore over a 3 decade change in both variables: $j^{\,\prime\prime}\; = \;k_m^{\rm obs} C_{\rm pore}.$ The magnitude of the observed mass transfer velocity ($\[k_m^{\rm obs}\, = \; 5\times{10^{ - 5}}\]$ m s−1) is significantly larger than values predicted for either the diffusion of bacteria across a concentration boundary layer ($k_m^{\rm diff}\, = \;8\; \times \;{10^{ - 6}}$ m s−1) or sweep and eject fluid motions at the SWI ($\[k_m^{\rm sweep}\, = \; {10^{ - 6}}\]$ m s−1) but is similar to the flux of water between the stream and its hyporheic zone estimated from dye injection experiments. These results support the hypothesis that hyporheic exchange controls the trafficking of bacteria, and perhaps other types of particulate organic matter, across the SWI in turbulent streams.

Description: Reactive transport modeling is a critical element in assessing the potential of natural attenuation of groundwater pollutants. In the present study, we developed a comprehensive quantitative model that incorporates the key processes affecting the long-term fate of complex organic compound mixtures released from coal tar–type dense nonaqueous phase liquid sources. The model framework addresses the simulation of the long-term dynamics of source zone depletion, the fate of the released compounds during reactive transport in the groundwater, the evolution of the aquifer's biogeochemical response, in particular its redox conditions, and the redox-dependent carbon isotope fractionation of selected organic compounds. The modeling framework was applied for the interpretation of observed biogeochemical and isotopic data from a well-characterized coal tar–contaminated site in northern Germany. The simulations highlight the diversity of fates of the individual compounds, which result from their widely varying physicochemical characteristics, and also how complex interactions develop over the lifetime of the contamination. The highly transient release of contaminants from the coal tar as pool and as heterogeneously distributed blobs in the source zone triggers continuously changing biogeochemical conditions and isotope signatures. The modeling results illustrate how difficult and uncertain the assessment of contaminant fate can be if the collected data cover only a small time window relative to the transport time scale. This emphasizes the need for a holistic understanding of the governing processes that control the effectiveness of monitored natural attenuation before it is implemented as a passive remediation strategy at nonaqueous phase liquid–contaminated sites.

Description: Supercell thunderstorms are known to occur in the outer rainbands of tropical cyclones (TCs), and these cells are of interest because they are occasionally tornadic. A series of multi-scale quasi-idealized TC simulations are used to study the development of outer rainband supercells. Within the environment of landfalling TCs, the sea-to-land transition of the rainbands is found to locally benefit supercell development onshore due in part to (1) enhanced surface-based destabilization during the day and (2) increased surface friction slowing and backing the low-level winds. Landfall time of day is shown to have a substantial impact on the average number, strength, and lifetime of the ensemble of simulated supercells. These idealized simulations represent a first attempt at controlled hypothesis tests for supercell and tornado ingredients within the context of a highly resolved parent TC.

Description: New spacecraft data provide increasing evidence for a dynamic environment on present-day Mars. Exogenic processes such as impact cratering, mass wasting processes, and active dune migration have all been observed to modify the surface. No traces of current endogenic activity have been found yet, but some studies point to very localized volcanism in the last few millions of years. However, no systematic study of young volcanic surfaces had been performed so far. We present absolute model age determinations of plains volcanism on Mars as derived from impact crater size-frequency distributions. Extended areas in Tharsis, the largest volcano-tectonic region on Mars, have been resurfaced by lava flows in the last few tens of millions of years. We also present results on the rheologic properties of these lava flows, inferred from morphometric measurements. Yield strengths are in the range of 100–300 Pa, and viscosities reach values of 102 to 103 Pa s, indicating basaltic compositions. The results imply that Mars retained until recently, and probably still retains, enough internal heat to produce wide-spread plain-style volcanism, producing low-viscosity lava flows throughout large parts of Tharsis.

Description: Tomographic images taken inside and outside a compaction band in a field specimen of Aztec sandstone are analyzed by using numerical methods such as graph theory, level sets, and hybrid lattice Boltzmann/finite element techniques. The results reveal approximately an order of magnitude permeability reduction within the compaction band. This is less than the several orders of magnitude reduction measured from hydraulic experiments on compaction bands formed in laboratory experiments and about one order of magnitude less than inferences from two-dimensional images of Aztec sandstone. Geometrical analysis concludes that the elimination of connected pore space and increased tortuosities due to the porosity decrease are the major factors contributing to the permeability reduction. In addition, the multiscale flow simulations also indicate that permeability is fairly isotropic inside and outside the compaction band.

Description: Meteotsunamis are oceanic waves that possess tsunami-like characteristics but are meteorological in origin. In the western Mediterranean, travelling atmospheric pressure oscillations generate these long oceanic surface waves that can become amplified and produce strong seiche oscillations inside harbors. We analyze a June 2006 meteotsunami event in Ciutadella harbor (Menorca Island, Spain), studying numerically the phenomenon during its full life cycle, from the early atmospheric stages to the atmosphere-ocean resonant phase and the final highly amplified harbor oscillation. The Weather Research Forecast (WRF) atmospheric model adequately reproduces the development of a convective nucleus and also reproduces the induced atmospheric pressure oscillations moving at a speed of 27 m/s. The oceanic response is studied using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), forced by the WRF pressure field. It shows an inverse barometer wave front in the open ocean progressively amplified through resonant interactions in the different shelf and coastal regions. The predictive capability of this new WRF/ROMS modeling approach is then discussed.

Description: HF radar measurements in the German Bight and their consistency with other available observations were analyzed. First, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the radial component of the surface current measured by one radar was performed. Afterwards, Neural Networks (NNs) were trained to now- and forecast the first five EOFs from tide gauge measurements. The inverse problem, i.e., to forecast a sea level from these EOFs was also solved using NNs. For both problems, the influence of wind measurements on the nowcast/forecast accuracy was quantified. The forecast improves if HF radar data are used in combination with wind data. Analysis of the upscaling potential of HF radar measurements demonstrated that information from one radar station in the German Bight is representative of an area larger than the observational domain and could contribute to correcting information from biased observations or numerical models.

Description: Polarimetric SAR decomposition parameters, average alpha angle ($\overline{\alpha}$) and entropy (H) are estimated for oil-slick contaminated sea surfaces and slick-free conditions using a RADARSAT-2 quad-polarization SAR image. The values of H and $\overline{\alpha}$ within oil slick areas are significantly higher than those of the ambient sea surface, indicating the dominance of Bragg scattering for the slick-free ocean and non-Bragg scattering for the oil-slick area. In land classification, the conformity coefficient (μ) is often used to discriminate surface scattering with double-bounce or volume scattering. Based on this rationale, we also develop a method using μ as a logical scalar descriptor to map oil slicks under low-to-moderate wind conditions. The proposed method is assessed using a RADARSAT-2 quad-polarization SAR image of oil slicks in the Gulf of Mexico. Analysis shows that when μ is positive the sea surface is slick-free, whereas μ is negative for oil-slick areas. This method provides a simple and effective mapping technique for oil slick detection.

Description: Okmok volcano erupted on July 12, 2008, following an 11-year hiatus. Detailed inspection of the syn-eruptive seismograms revealed the presence of an ultra long-period mode at a frequency of 1.7 mHz, which is not a characteristic of the background seismic noise at Okmok. Data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and National Aeronautical and Space Administration Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors displayed the propagation of a vigorous ash-and-steam plume up to about 17 km above sea level. We suggest that the observed ultra long-period signals represent the response of the seismometer to changes in gravity associated with buoyancy oscillations set off in the lower atmosphere above Okmok by the emplacement of the eruption column. Calculations based on simple modeling of these effects allowed estimation of peak atmospheric pressure perturbations associated with the eruption of less than 1 mbar.

Description: Geothermal energy offers clean, renewable, reliable electric power with no need for grid-scale energy storage, yet its use has been constrained to the few locations worldwide with naturally high geothermal heat resources and groundwater availability. We present a novel approach with the potential to permit expansion of geothermal energy utilization: heat extraction from naturally porous, permeable formations with CO2 as the injected subsurface working fluid. Fluid-mechanical simulations reveal that the significantly higher mobility of CO2, compared to water, at the temperature/pressure conditions of interest makes CO2 an attractive heat exchange fluid. We show numerically that, compared to conventional water-based and engineered geothermal systems, the proposed approach provides up to factors of 2.9 and 5.0, respectively, higher geothermal heat energy extraction rates. Consequently, more regions worldwide could be economically used for geothermal electricity production. Furthermore, as the injected CO2 is eventually geologically sequestered, such power plants would have negative carbon footprints.

Description: Based on the optimality principle (that the global energy expenditure rate is at its minimum for a given landscape under steady state conditions) and calculus of variations, we have derived new governing equations for describing steady-state optimal landscapes. Other than building on the well-established Manning's equation, this work does not rely on any empirical relationships (such as those relating hydraulic parameters to local slopes). Using additional constraints, we also theoretically demonstrate that discharge is a power function of local slope, which is consistent with field data and previous studies.

Description: Llaima volcano, Chile, is a typical basaltic-to-andesitic stratovolcano in the southcentral Andes. Llaima had at least four explosive eruptions in the decade 2000 – 2010, however little is known about the physical processes and magma storage at this volcano. In this study we present an InSAR deformation field at Llaima from 2003 – 2008, covering both the post-eruptive and syn-eruptive periods. The satellite InSAR data are significantly affected by environmental decorrelation due to steep topography, snow and vegetation; because of this, we applied a model-assisted phase unwrapping approach. The analysis of these data suggests two main deformation episodes: subsidence associated with the post-eruptive period, and uplift associated with the syn-eruptive period. Maximum summit subsidence and uplift are ∼10 cm and ∼8 cm, respectively. Through inverse modeling of both periods, a deflating and inflating magma body can be inferred, located at a depth of 4 – 12 km, subject to a volume decrease of 10 – 46 × 106 m3 during the subsidence period, followed by a volume increase of 6 – 20 × 106 m3 during the uplift period. Therefore, this study presents the first evidence of magma-driven deformation at Llaima volcano, and suggests that eruption periods are associated with the inflation and deflation of a deep magma body that can be monitored by using space geodesy.

Description: Recent advances in the compilation of the climate science databases, derived from observations and model simulations, help in estimating trends and variability of current and past atmospheric conditions. However, an exponential increase in the amount of information limits its comprehension. In this paper we present a simple diagnostic, named as “volume variability”, that allows for analysis of multidimensional fields of climate variables. The simplicity inherent in the new diagnostic, calculated as a product of variances along a set of directions, and its transparent interpretation thereof will enable its use as a metric for the quick and easy comparison of the 3D time series of models and observations. Using this diagnostic, we explore the evolution of the temperature and geopotential height fields over the Southern Hemisphere Cap region by way of four reanalysis systems.

Description: Deep-sea foraminiferal δ13C records contain abundant 400-kyr cycles indicating a link between eccentricity forcing and ocean carbon reservoir change. Here we simulate the oceanic δ13C maxima events forced by the Earth's orbital geometry during the Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO, 17-14 Ma) using a box model. The simulated results of both surface and deep water δ13C display co-varying 400-kyr cycle. Modulated by orbital parameters, weathering induced carbon input will change the burial ratio of carbonates to organic carbon and further result in periodic changes in the oceanic δ13C. The increase of riverine nutrient input, which is synchronous with riverine carbon input, often stimulates primary productivity and burial of organic carbon. Our results support that eccentricity maxima (minima) enhance (reduce) weathering intensity and nutrient supply, which lead to minima (maxima) of δ13C. The prominent 400-kyr cycle of ocean carbon reservoir is interpreted as likely caused by a long memory of carbon in the ocean.

Description: We investigated trends for surface net heat flux (NET) and fresh water flux (FWF) over the eastern subtropical region in the North Pacific for the period of 1988–2005 using satellite-based data set. It is concluded that NET and FWF remarkably increased during this period. Latent heat flux (LHF) mainly contributes to the increase in NET. Moreover, in order to clarify which flux has larger contribution to the increase in LHF, we investigated four LHF products. Both of the increase in the wind speed (U) and the decrease in the air specific humidity (Qa) have critical contribution to the increase in LHF. In contrast, the decrease of the sea surface temperature (SST) which contributes the decrease in LHF is also found. Also, we proposed a possible mechanism that the increase in U and the decrease in Qa are induced by the strengthened descending branch of local Hadley circulation, associated with change of SST around this region.