ALBERT

Description: Similarity estimators for irregular and age uncertain time series Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5299-5346, 2013 Author(s): K. Rehfeld and J. Kurths Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many datasets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel based cross correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60–55% (in the linear case) to 53–42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity contributes less, particularly for the adapted Gaussian-kernel based estimators and the event synchronization function. The introduced link strength concept summarizes the hypothesis test results and balances the individual strengths of the estimators: while gXCF is particularly suitable for short and irregular time series, gMI and the ESF can identify nonlinear dependencies. ESF could, in particular, be suitable to study extreme event dynamics in paleoclimate records. Programs to analyze paleoclimatic time series for significant dependencies are included in a freely available software toolbox.

Description: Impact of precession on the climate, vegetation and fire activity in southern Africa during MIS4 Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5391-5438, 2013 Author(s): M.-N. Woillez, G. Levavasseur, A.-L. Daniau, M. Kageyama, D. H. Urrego, and M.-F. Sánchez-Goñi The relationships between climate, vegetation and fires are a major subject of investigation in the context of climate change. In southern Africa, fire is known to play a crucial role in the existence of grasslands and Mediterranean-like biomes. Microcharcoal-based reconstructions of past fire activity in that region have shown a tight correlation between grass-fueled fires and the precessional cycle, with maximum fire activity during maxima of the climatic precession index. These changes have been interpreted as the result of changes in fuel load in response to precipitation changes in eastern southern Africa. Here we use the general circulation model IPSL_CM5A and the dynamical vegetation model LPJ-LMfire to investigate the response of climate, vegetation and fire activity to precession changes in southern Africa during Marine Isotopic Stage 4. We perform two climatic simulations, for a maximum and minimum of the precession index, and use a statistical downscaling method to increase the spatial resolution of the IPSL_CM5A outputs over southern Africa and perform high-resolution simulations of the vegetation and fire activity. Our results show an anti-correlation between the North and South African monsoons in response to precession changes. A decrease of the precession climatic index leads to a precipitation decrease in the summer rainfall area of southern Africa. The drying of climate leads to a decrease of vegetation cover and fire activity. Our results are in qualitative agreement with data and confirm that fire activity in southern Africa is strongly dependent on the vegetation type.

Description: Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785 Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5157-5182, 2013 Author(s): P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut This paper uses a method of atmospheric flow analogues to reconstruct an ensemble of atmospheric variables (namely sea-level pressure, surface temperature and wind speed) between 1781 and 1785. The properties of this ensemble are investigated and tested against observations of temperature. The goal of the paper is to assess whether the atmospheric circulation during the Laki volcanic eruption (in 1783) and the subsequent winter were similar to the conditions that prevailed in the winter 2009/2010 and during spring 2010. We find that the three months following the Laki eruption in June 1783 barely have analogues in 2010. The cold winter of 1783/1784 yields circulation analogues in 2009/2010. Our analysis suggests that it is unlikely that the Laki eruption was responsible for the cold winter of 1783/1784, of the relatively short memory of the atmospheric circulation.

Description: Seasonal changes in glacial polynya activity inferred from Weddell Sea varves Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5123-5156, 2013 Author(s): D. Sprenk, M. E. Weber, G. Kuhn, V. Wennrich, T. Hartmann, and K. Seelos The Weddell Sea and the associated Filchner-Rønne Ice Shelf constitute key regions for global bottom-water production today. However, little is known about bottom-water production under different climate and ice-sheet conditions. Therefore, we studied core PS1795, which consists primarily of fine-grained siliciclastic varves that were deposited on contourite ridges in the southeastern Weddell Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We conducted high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis and grain-size measurements with the RADIUS tool (Seelos and Sirocko, 2005) using thin sections to characterize the two seasonal components of the varves at sub-mm resolution to distinguish the seasonal components of the varves. Bright layers contain coarser grains that can mainly be identified as quartz in the medium to coarse silt grain size. They also contain higher amounts of Si, Zr, Ca, and Sr, as well as more ice-rafted debris (IRD). Dark layers, on the other hand, contain finer particles such as mica and clay minerals from the chlorite and illite groups. In addition, chemical elements, Fe, Ti, Rb, and K are elevated as well. Based on these findings as well as on previous analyses on neighbouring cores, we propose a model of glacially enhanced thermohaline convection in front of a grounded ice sheet that is supported by seasonally variable coastal polynya activity. Accordingly, katabatic (i.e. offshore blowing) winds removed sea ice from the ice edge, leading to coastal polynya formation. We suggest that glacial processes were similar to today with stronger katabatic winds and enhanced coastal polynya activity during the winter season. If this is correct, silty layers are likely glacial winter deposits, when brine rejection was increased, leading to enhanced bottom water formation and increased sediment transport. Vice versa, finer-grained clayey layers were then deposited during summer, when coastal polynya activity was likely reduced.

Description: Is blue intensity ready to replace maximum latewood density as a strong temperature proxy? A tree-ring case study on Scots pine from northern Sweden Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5227-5261, 2013 Author(s): J. A. Björklund, B. E. Gunnarson, K. Seftigen, J. Esper, and H. W. Linderholm At high latitudes, where low temperatures mainly limit tree-growth, measurements of wood density (e.g. Maximum Latewood Density, MXD) using the X-Ray methodology provide a temperature proxy that is superior to that of TRW. Density measurements are however costly and time consuming and have lead to experimentation with optical flatbed scanners to produce Maximum Blue Intensity (BI max ). BI max is an excellent proxy for density on annual scale but very limited in skill on centennial scale. Discolouration between samples is limiting BI max where specific brightnesses can have different densities. To overcome this, the new un-exploited parameter Δ blue intensity (ΔBI) was constructed by using the brightness in the earlywood (BI EW ) as background, (BI max − BI EW = ΔBI). This parameter was tested on X-Ray material (MXD − earlywood density = ΔMXD) and showed great potential both as a quality control and as a booster of climate signals. Unfortunately since the relationship between grey scale and density is not linear, and between-sample brightness can differ tremendously for similar densities, ΔBI cannot fully match ΔMXD in skill as climate proxy on centennial scale. For ΔBI to stand alone, the range of brightness/density offset must be reduced. Further studies are needed to evaluate this possibility, and solutions might include heavier sample treatment (reflux with chemicals) or image-data treatment (digitally manipulating base-line levels of brightness).

Description: Halocline water modification and along slope advection at the Laptev Sea continental margin Ocean Science Discussions, 10, 1581-1617, 2013 Author(s): D. Bauch, S. Torres-Valdes, I. Polyakov, A. Novikhin, I. Dmitrenko, J. McKay, and A. Mix A general pattern in water mass distribution and potential shelf-basin exchanges is revealed at the Laptev Sea continental slope based on hydrochemical and stable oxygen isotope data from summers 2005–2009. Despite considerable interannual variations, a frontal system can be inferred between shelf, continental slope and central Eurasian Basin waters in the upper 100 m of the water column along the continental slope. Net sea-ice melt is consistently found at the continental slope; however the sea-ice meltwater signal is independent from the local retreat of the ice cover and appears to be advected from upwind locations. In addition to the along-slope frontal system at the continental shelf break a strong gradient is identified on the Laptev Sea shelf between 122 and 126° E with an eastward increase of riverine and sea-ice related brine water contents. These waters cross the shelf break at ~ 140° E and feed the Low Salinity Halocline Water (LSHW, salinity S 〈 33) in the upper 50 m of the water column. Extremely high silicate concentrations in Laptev Sea bottom waters may lead to speculation on a link to the local silicate maximum found within the salinity range of ~ 33 to 34.5, typical for the Lower Halocline Water (LHW) at the continental slope. But brine signatures and nutrient ratios from the central Laptev Sea differ from those at the continental slope. Thus a significant contribution of Laptev Sea bottom waters to the LHW at the continental slope can be excluded. The silicate maximum within the LHW at the continental slope may be formed locally or at the outer Laptev Sea shelf. Similar to the advection of the sea-ice melt signal along the Laptev Sea continental slope the nutrient signal at 50–70 m water depth within the LHW might also be fed by advection parallel to the slope. Thus, our analyses suggest that advective processes from upwind locations play a significant role in the halocline formation in the northern Laptev Sea.

Description: Migrating subtropical front and Agulhas Return Current affect the southwestern Indian Ocean during the late Quaternary Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5521-5551, 2013 Author(s): D. K. Naik, R. Saraswat, N. Khare, A. C. Pandey, and R. Nigam The position of sub-tropical front (STF), Agulhas Current (AC) and Agulhas Return Current (ARC) controls the hydrography of southwestern Indian Ocean. Although, equator-ward migration of STF and reduction in Agulhas leakage has been reported during the last glacial period, the fate of ARC during the last glacial–interglacial cycle is not clear. Therefore, in order to understand changes in the position and strength of ARC during the last glacial–interglacial cycle, here we reconstruct hydrographic changes in the southwestern Indian Ocean from temporal variation in planktic foraminiferal abundance, stable isotopic ratio (δ 18 O) and trace metal ratio (Mg / Ca) of planktic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides in a core collected from the Agulhas Retroflection Region (ARR) in the southwestern Indian Ocean. Increased abundance of G. bulloides suggests that the productivity in the southwestern Indian Ocean increased during glacial period which confirms previous reports of high glacial productivity in the Southern Ocean. The increased productivity was likely driven by a combination of equator-ward migration of subtropical front and westerlies. Increase in relative abundance of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma Dextral suggests warming of ARR leading to strong thermocline in the southwestern Indian Ocean during the last glacial period. We suggest that the warming of Agulhas Retroflection Region was driven by strengthened ARC which shifted to the east of its present location, thus bringing warmer and saltier water to the southwestern Indian Ocean. Therefore, it is inferred that over the last glacial–interglacial cycle, the hydrography of southwestern Indian Ocean was driven by an eastward shift of retroflection region as well as migrating subtropical front.

Description: The response of the Peruvian Upwelling Ecosystem to centennial-scale global change during the last two millennia Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5479-5519, 2013 Author(s): R. Salvatteci, D. Gutiérrez, D. Field, A. Sifeddine, L. Ortlieb, I. Bouloubassi, M. Boussafir, H. Boucher, and F. Cetin The Tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system influences global climate on interannual, decadal, as well as at longer timescales. Given the uncertainties in the response of the Tropical Pacific to the ongoing greenhouse effect, it is important to assess the natural range of the Tropical Pacific climate variability in response to global natural changes, and to understand the underlying mechanisms. The Peruvian Upwelling Ecosystem (PUE) represents an ideal area to reconstruct past changes in ocean-atmosphere systems because productivity and subsurface oxygenation are strongly linked to changes in the strength of the Walker circulation. Throughout the last 2000 yr, warmer (the Roman Warm Period [RWP], the Medieval Climate Anomaly [MCA] and the Current Warm Period [CWP]), and colder (the Dark Ages Cold Period [DACP] and Little Ice Age [LIA]) intervals occurred with considerable changes around the globe. In order to reconstruct the PUE response to these climatic periods and reveal the underlying mechanisms, we use a multi-proxy approach including organic and inorganic proxies in finely laminated sediments retrieved off Pisco (~ 14° S), Peru. Our results indicate that the PUE exhibited a La Niña-like mean state during the warm periods, characterized by an intense OMZ and high marine productivity. During cold periods the PUE exhibited an El Niño-like mean state, characterized by a weak OMZ and low marine productivity. Comparing our results with other relevant paleoclimatic reconstructions revealed that changes in the strength of the Walker circulation and the expansion/contraction of the South Pacific Sub-tropical High controlled productivity and subsurface oxygenation in the PUE during the last two millennia. This indicate that large scale circulation changes are the driving forces in maintaining productivity and subsurface oxygenation off Peru at centennial time scales during the past two millennia.

Description: Cumulated insolation: a simple explanation of Milankovitch's forcing on climate changes Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5553-5568, 2013 Author(s): F. Marra The occurrence of the sudden melting of the ice sheets during the glacial terminations is explained in this paper as the consequence of the combined role of the minima and the maxima of mean summer insolation on the Northern Hemisphere, providing a new contribution to understand the mechanisms ruling glacial forcing. Indeed, no satisfactory answer has been provided so far to the question why one specific maximum, after a series of consecutive maxima of insolation, has the potentiality to trigger a deglaciation. The explanation proposed in this paper accounts for a pre-conditioning factor, represented by "mild" (warmer) minimum, followed by a sufficiently warm maximum as the conditions that cause the end of a glacial cycle. These conditions are realized whenever the sum of the values of each consecutive minima and maxima ("cumulated insolation") on the curve of mean summer insolation at 65° N exceeds 742 Watt m −2 . The comparison of the succession of these cumulated insolation values with the astronomically tuned Oxygen isotopes record provides a satisfactory match with the occurrence of all the glacial terminations in the last 800 ka.

Description: Chronology of Lake El'gygytgyn sediments Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 3061-3102, 2013 Author(s): N. R. Nowaczyk, E. M. Haltia, D. Ulbricht, V. Wennrich, M. A. Sauerbrey, P. Rosén, H. Vogel, A. Francke, C. Meyer-Jacob, A. A. Andreev, and A. V. Lozhkin A 318 m long sedimentary profile drilled by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) at Site 5011-1 in Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic, has been analysed for its sedimentologic response to global climate modes by chrono-stratigraphic methods. The 12 km wide lake is sited in an 18 km large crater that was created by the impact of a meteorite 3.58 Ma ago. Since then sediments have been continuously deposited. For establishing their chronology, major reversals of the Earth's magnetic field provided initial tie points for the age model, confirming that the impact occurred in the earliest Gauss chron. Various stratigraphic parameters, reflecting redox conditions at the lake floor and climatic conditions in the catchment were tuned synchronously to Northern Hemisphere insolation variations and the marine oxygen isotope stack, respectively. Thus, a robust age model comprising more than 600 tie points could be defined. It could be shown that deposition of sediments in Lake El'gygytgyn occurred in concert with global climatic cycles. The upper ~160 m of sediments represent the past 3.3 Ma, equivalent to sedimentation rates of 4 to 5 cm ka −1 , whereas the lower 160 m represent just the first 0.3 Ma after the impact, equivalent to sedimentation rates in the order of 45 cm ka −1 .

Description: Late Cenozoic continuous aridification in the western Qaidam Basin: evidence from sporopollen records Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 1485-1508, 2013 Author(s): Y. F. Miao, X. M. Fang, F. L. Wu, M. T. Cai, C. H. Song, Q. Q. Meng, and L. Xu Cenozoic climate changes in inner Asia provide a basis for understanding linkages between global cooling, the Tibetan Plateau uplift, and possibly the development of the East Asian monsoon. Based on the compiled palynological results from the western Qaidam Basin, this study reconstructed an 18 Ma record of changing vegetation and paleoclimates since the middle Miocene. Thermophilic taxa percentages were highest between 18 and 14 Ma and decreased after 14 Ma, corresponding closely with the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO) between 18 and 14 Ma and the following global climatic cooling. After 3.6 Ma, the thermophilic taxa percentages further decreased, showing the inevitable relations with the ice-sheets enlargement in the North Hemisphere. During the same period of time, the increase in xerophytic taxa percentages and decrease in conifers percentages imply aridification in both the basin and surrounding mountains since 18 Ma. These results indicate that global cooling mainly controlled the climate change from a relative warm-wet stage to a cold-dry stage during the late Cenozoic at the western Qaidam Basin, and that the Tibetan Plateau uplift also contributed in contrast to the East Asian summer monsoon.

Description: Post-Pliocene establishment of the present monsoonal climate in SW China: evidence from the late Pliocene Longmen megaflora Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 1675-1701, 2013 Author(s): T. Su, F. M. B. Jacques, R. A. Spicer, Y.-S. Liu, Y.-J. Huang, Y.-W. Xing, and Z.-K. Zhou The paleoclimate of the late Pliocene Longmen flora from Yongping County located at the southeastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was reconstructed using two leaf physiognomy based methods, i.e. Leaf Margin Analysis (LMA) and Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP), to understand the paleoclimate condition and geographical pattern of monsoonal climate in southwestern China during the late Pliocene. The mean annual temperatures (MATs) estimated by LMA and CLAMP are 17.4 ± 3.3 °C and 17.4 ± 1.3 °C, respectively, compared with 15.9 °C at present. Meanwhile, the growing season precipitation (GSP) estimated by CLAMP is 1735.5 ± 217.7 mm in the Longmen flora, compared with 986.9 mm nowadays. The calculated monsoon index (MSI) of the Longmen flora is significantly lower than that of today. These results appear consistent with previous studies based on the coexistence approach (CA), and further suggest that there was a slightly warmer and much wetter climate during the late Pliocene than the present climate in western Yunnan. We conclude that the significant change of the monsoonal climate might have been resulted from the continuous uplift of mountains in western Yunnan, as well as the intensification of eastern Asian winter monsoon, both occurring concurrently in the post-Pliocene period.

Description: The transient distributions of nuclear weapon-generated tritium and its decay product 3 He in the Mediterranean Sea, 1952–2011, and their oceanographic potential Ocean Science Discussions, 10, 649-690, 2013 Author(s): W. Roether, P. Jean-Baptiste, E. Fourré, and J. Sültenfuß We present a comprehensive account of tritium and 3 He in the Mediterranean Sea since the appearance of the tritium generated by the atmospheric nuclear-weapon testing in the 1950's and early 1960's, based on essentially all available observations. Tritium in surface waters rose to 20–30 TU in 1964 (TU = 10 18 · [ 3 H]/[H]), a factor of about 100 above the natural level, and thereafter declined 30-fold up to 2011. The decline was largely due to radioactive tritium decay, which produced significant amounts of its stable daughter 3 He. We present the scheme by which we separate the tritiugenic part of 3 He and the part due to release from the sea floor (terrigenic part). We show that the tritiugenic component can be quantified throughout the Mediterranean waters, typically to a ±0.15 TU equivalent, mostly because the terrigenic part is low in 3 He. This fact makes the Mediterranean unique in offering a potential for the use of tritiugenic 3 He as a tracer. The transient distributions of the two tracers are illustrated by a number of sections spanning the entire sea and relevant features of their distributions are noted. By 2011, the 3 He concentrations in the top few hundred meters had become low, in response to the decreasing tritium concentrations combined with a flushing out by the general westward drift of these waters. Tritium- 3 He ages in Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) were obtained repeated in time at different locations, defining transit times from the LIW source region east of Rhodes. The ages show an upward trend with the time elapsed since the surface-water tritium maximum, which arises because the repeated observations represent increasingly slower moving parts of the full transit time spectrum of LIW. The transit time dispersion found by this new application of tritium- 3 He dating is considerable. We find mean transit times of 12 ± 2 yr up to the Strait of Sicily, 18 ± 3 yr up to the Tyrrhenian Sea, and 22 ± 4 yr up into the Western Mediterranean. We furthermore present full Eastern Mediterranean sections of terrigenic 3 He and tritium- 3 He age in 1987, the latter one similarly showing an effect of the transit time dispersion. We conclude that the available tritium and 3 He data, in particular if combined with other tracer data, are useful for constraining the subsurface circulation and mixing of the Mediterranean Sea.

Description: Holocene vegetation and climate changes in central Mediterranean inferred from a high-resolution marine pollen record (Adriatic Sea) Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 1969-2014, 2013 Author(s): N. Combourieu-Nebout, O. Peyron, V. Bout-Roumazeilles, S. Goring, I. Dormoy, S. Joannin, L. Sadori, G. Siani, and M. Magny To understand the effects of future climate change on the ecology of the central Mediterranean we can look to the impacts of long-term, millennial to centennial-scale climatic variability on vegetation in the basin. Pollen data from the Adriatic Marine core MD 90-917 allows us to reconstruct vegetation and regional climate changes over the south central Mediterranean during the Holocene. Clay mineral ratios from the same core reflect the relative contributions of riverine (illite and smectite) and eolian (kaolinite) contributions to the site, and thus act as an additional proxy with which to test precipitation changes in the Holocene. Vegetation reconstruction shows vegetation responses to the late-Glacial Preboreal oscillation, most likely driven by changes in seasonal precipitation. Pollen-inferred temperature declines during the early-mid Holocene, but increases during the mid-late Holocene, similar to southern-western Mediterranean climatic patterns during the Holocene. Several short climatic events appear in the record, indicating the sensitivity of vegetation in the region to millennial-scale variability. Reconstructed summer precipitation shows a regional maximum between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP similar to the general pattern across southern Europe. Two important shifts in vegetation occur at 7700 and between 7500 and 7000 yr. These vegetation shifts are linked to changes in seasonal precipitation and are correlated to increased river inputs respectively from the north (7700 event) and from the central Adriatic borderlands (7500–7000 event). These results reinforce the strengths of multi-proxy analysis and provide a deeper understanding of the role of precipitation and particularly the seasonality of precipitation in mediating vegetation change in the central Mediterranean during the Holocene.

Description: Southern Hemisphere orbital forcing and its effects on CO 2 and tropical Pacific climate Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 1869-1900, 2013 Author(s): K. Tachikawa, A. Timmermann, L. Vidal, C. Sonzogni, and O. E. Timm The western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) is an important heat source for the atmospheric circulation and influences climate conditions worldwide. Understanding its sensitivity to past radiative perturbations may help better contextualize the magnitudes and patterns of current and projected tropical climate change. Here we present a new Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction over the past 400 kyr from the Bismarck Sea, off Papua New Guinea, along with results from a transient earth system model simulation. Our results document the primary influence of CO 2 forcing on glacial/interglacial WPWP SSTs and secondary effects due to changes in wind-driven tropical boundary currents. In addition to the SST, deep ocean temperature reconstructions from this core are linked with Southern Ocean temperature and sea-ice variations on timescales of ~ 23 kyr. It is proposed that Southern Hemisphere insolation changes serve as pacemaker for sea-ice variations in the Southern Ocean, which in turn modulate windstress curl-driven upwelling of carbon-rich waters, hence controlling atmospheric CO 2 and tropical WPWP temperatures.

Description: A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 1: Model validation Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 1803-1839, 2013 Author(s): J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita We present and analyse a high-resolution regional climate palaeosimulation encompassing the European region for the period 1500–1990. We use the regional model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. Both models were driven by reconstructions of three external factors: greenhouse gas concentrations, Total Solar Irradiance and volcanic activity. The simulation has been assessed in a recent period by comparing the model results with the Climate Research Unit (CRU) database. The results show that although the regional model is tightly driven by the boundary conditions, it is able to improve the reliability of the simulations, narrowing the differences to the observations, especially in areas of complex topography. Additionally, the evolution of the spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation through the last five centuries has been analysed. The mean values of temperature reflects the influence of the external forcings but, contrary to the results obtained under climate change scenario conditions, we found that higher-order momenta of the probability distribution of seasonal temperature and precipitation are hardly affected by changes in the external forcings

Description: North–south palaeohydrological contrasts in the central Mediterranean during the Holocene: tentative synthesis and working hypotheses Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 1901-1967, 2013 Author(s): M. Magny, N. Combourieu Nebout, J. L. de Beaulieu, V. Bout-Roumazeilles, D. Colombaroli, S. Desprat, A. Francke, S. Joannin, O. Peyron, M. Revel, L. Sadori, G. Siani, M. A. Sicre, S. Samartin, A. Simonneau, W. Tinner, B. Vannière, B. Wagner, G. Zanchetta, F. Anselmetti, E. Brugiapaglia, E. Chapron, M. Debret, M. Desmet, J. Didier, L. Essallami, D. Galop, A. Gilli, J. N. Haas, N. Kallel, L. Millet, A. Stock, J. L. Turon, and S. Wirth On the basis of a multi-proxy approach and a strategy combining lacustrine and marine records along a north–south transect, data collected in the Central Mediterranean within the framework of a collaborative project have led to reconstruction of high-resolution and well-dated palaeohydrological records and to assessment of their spatial and temporal coherency. Contrasting patterns of palaeohydrological changes have been evidenced in the Central Mediterranean: south (north) of around 40° N of latitude, the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by lake-level maxima (minima), during an interval dated to ca. 10 300–4500 cal BP to the south and 9000–4500 cal BP to the north. Available data suggest that these contrasting palaeohydrological patterns operated throughout the Holocene, both on millennial and centennial scales. Regarding precipitation seasonality, maximum humidity in the Central Mediterranean during the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by humid winters and dry summers north of ca. 40° N, and humid winters and summers south of ca. 40° N. This may explain an apparent conflict between palaeoclimatic records depending on the proxies used for reconstruction as well as the synchronous expansion of tree species taxa with contrasting climatic requirements. In addition, south of ca. 40° N, the first millennium of the Holocene was characterised by very dry climatic conditions not only in the Eastern, but also in the Central and the Western Mediterranean zones as reflected by low lake levels and delayed reforestation. These results suggest that, in addition to the influence of the Nile discharge reinforced by the African monsoon, the deposition of Sapropel 1 has been favoured (1) by an increase in winter precipitation in the northern Mediterranean borderlands, and (2) by an increase in winter and summer precipitation in the southern Mediterranean area. The climate reversal following the Holocene climate optimum appears to have been punctuated by two major climate changes around 7500 and 4500 cal BP. In the Central Mediterranean, the Holocene palaeohydrological changes developed in response to a combination of orbital, ice-sheet and solar forcing factors. The maximum humidity interval in the south-central Mediterranean started at ca. 10 300 cal BP, in correlation with the decline (1) of the possible blocking effects of the North Atlantic anticyclone linked to maximum insolation, and/or (2) of the influence of the remnant ice sheets and fresh water forcing in the North Atlantic Ocean. In the north-central Mediterranean, the lake-level minimum interval began only around 9000 cal BP when the Fennoscandian ice-sheet disappeared and a prevailing positive NAO-type circulation developed in the North Atlantic area. The major palaeohydrological oscillation around 4500–4000 cal BP may be a non-linear response to the gradual decrease, with additional key seasonal and interhemispherical changes, in insolation. On a centennial scale, the successive climatic events which punctuated the entire Holocene in the central Mediterranean coincided with cooling events associated with deglacial outbursts in the North Atlantic area and decreases in solar activity during the interval 11 700–7000 cal BP, and to a possible combination of NAO-type circulation and solar forcing since ca. 7000 cal BP onwards. Thus, regarding the centennial-scale climatic oscillations, the Mediterranean Basin appears to have been strongly linked to the North Atlantic area and affected by solar activity over the entire Holocene. In addition to model experiments, a better understanding of forcing factors and past atmospheric circulation patterns behind the Holocene palaeohydrological changes in the Mediterranean area will require further investigation to establish additional high-resolution and well-dated records in selected locations around the Mediterranean Basin and in adjacent regions. Special attention should be paid to greater precision in the reconstruction, on millennial and centennial time scales, of changes in the latitudinal location of the limit between the northern and southern palaeohydrological Mediterranean sectors, depending on (1) the intensity and/or characteristics of climatic periods/oscillations (e.g. Holocene thermal maximum versus Neoglacial, as well as, for instance, the 8.2 ka event versus the 4 ka event or the Little Ice Age), and (2) on varying geographical conditions from the western to the eastern Mediterranean areas (longitudinal gradients).

Description: The last 7 millennia of vegetation and climate changes at Lago di Pergusa (central Sicily, Italy) Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 2059-2094, 2013 Author(s): L. Sadori, E. Ortu, O. Peyron, G. Zanchetta, B. Vannière, M. Desmet, and M. Magny The aim of this study is to investigate climate changes and human activities under the lens of palynology. Based on a new high-resolution pollen sequence (PG2) from Lago di Pergusa (667 m a.s.l., central Sicily, Italy) covering the last 6700 yr, we propose a reconstruction of climate and landscape changes over the recent past in central Sicily. Compared to former studies from Lago di Pergusa (Sadori and Narcisi, 2001), this work provides a reconstruction of the evolution of vegetation and climate over the last millennia in central Sicily, indeed completing previous results with new data which is particularly detailed on the last 3000 yr. Joint actions of increasing dryness, climate oscillations, and human impact shaped the landscape of this privileged site. Lago di Pergusa, in fact, besides being the main inland lake of Sicily, is very sensitive to climate change and its territory was inhabited and exploited continuously since the prehistory. The lake sediments turned out to be a good observatory for the natural phenomena occurred in the last thousands of years. Results of the pollen-based study are integrated with changes in magnetic susceptibility and a tephra layer characterization. The tephra layer was shown to be related to the Sicanians' event, radiocarbon dated at 3055 ± 75 yr BP (Sadori and Narcisi, 2001). We performed palaeoclimate reconstructions by MAT and WA-PLS. Palaeoclimate reconstructions based on the core show important climate fluctuations throughout the Holocene. Climate reconstruction points out four phases of cooling and enhanced wetness in the last three millennia (2600–2000, 1650–1100, 850–550, 400–200 cal BP). This appears to be the evidence of local responses to global climate oscillations during the recent past.

Description: Dust and associated trace element fluxes in a firn core from the coastal East Antarctica and its linkages with the Southern Hemisphere climate variability over the last ~ 50 yr Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 1841-1867, 2013 Author(s): C. M. Laluraj, M. Thamban, and K. Satheesan High-resolution records of dust and trace element fluxes were studied in a firn core from the coastal Dronning Maud Land (cDML) in East Antarctica to identify the influence of climate variability on accumulation of these components over the past ~ 50 yr. A doubling of dust deposition was observed since 1985, coinciding with a shift in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index to positive values and associated increase in the wind speed. Back-trajectories showed that an increase in dust deposition is associated with the air parcels originating from north-west of the site, possibly indicating its origin from the Patagonian region. Our results suggest that while multiple processes could have influenced the increased dust formation, shift in SAM had a dominant influence on its transport. It is observed that since the 1985s the strength of easterlies increased significantly over the cDML region, which could sink air and dust material to the region that were brought by the westerlies through mass compensation. The correlation between the dust flux and δ 18 O records further suggest that enhanced dust flux in the firn core occurred during periods of colder atmospheric temperature, which reduced the moisture content and increased dust fall. Interestingly, the timing and amplitude of the insoluble dust peaks matched remarkably well with the fluxes of Ba, Cr, Cu, and Zn confirming that dust was the main carrier/source of atmospheric trace elements to East Antarctica during the recent past.

Description: An inter-laboratory investigation of the Arctic sea ice biomarker proxy IP 25 in marine sediments: key outcomes and recommendations Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5263-5298, 2013 Author(s): S. T. Belt, T. A. Brown, L. Ampel, P. Cabedo-Sanz, K. Fahl, J. J. Kocis, G. Massé, A. Navarro-Rodriguez, J. Ruan, and Y. Xu We describe the results of an inter-laboratory investigation into the identification and quantification of the Arctic sea ice biomarker proxy IP 25 in marine sediments. 7 laboratories took part in the study, which consisted of the analysis of IP 25 in a series of sediment samples from different regions of the Arctic, sub-Arctic and Antarctic, additional sediment extracts and purified standards. The results obtained allowed 4 key outcomes to be determined. First, IP 25 was identified by all laboratories in sediments from the Canadian Arctic with inter-laboratory variation in IP 25 concentration being substantially larger than within individual laboratories. This greater variation between laboratories was attributed to the difficulty in accurately determining instrumental response factors for IP 25 , despite provision of appropriate standards. Second, the identification of IP 25 by 3 laboratories in sediment from SW Iceland that was believed to represent a blank, was interpreted as representing a better limit of detection or quantification for such laboratories, contamination or mis-identification. These alternatives could not be distinguished conclusively with the data available, although it is noted that the precision of these data was significantly poorer compared with the other IP 25 concentration measurements. Third, 3 laboratories reported the occurrence of IP 25 in a sediment sample from the Antarctic Peninsula even though this biomarker is believed to be absent from the Southern Ocean. This anomaly is attributed to a combined chromatographic and mass spectrometric interference that results from the presence of a di-unsaturated highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) pseudo-homologue of IP 25 that occurs in Antarctic sediments. Finally, data are presented that suggest that extraction of IP 25 is consistent between Automated Solvent Extraction (ASE) and sonication methods and that IP 25 concentrations based on 7-hexylnonadecane as an internal standard are comparable using these methods. Recoveries of some more unsaturated HBIs and the internal standard 9-octylheptadecene, however, were lower with the ASE procedure, possibly due to partial degradation of these more reactive chemicals as a result of higher temperatures employed with this method. For future measurements, we recommend the use of reference sediment material with known concentration(s) of IP 25 for determining and routinely monitoring instrumental response factors. Given the significance placed on the presence (or otherwise) of IP 25 in marine sediments, some further recommendations pertaining to quality control are made that should also enable the two main anomalies identified here to be addressed.

Description: Expressions of climate perturbations in western Ugandan crater lake sediment records during the last 1000 yr Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5183-5226, 2013 Author(s): K. Mills, D. B. Ryves, N. J. Anderson, C. L. Bryant, and J. J. Tyler Equatorial East Africa has a complex, regional patchwork of climate regimes, with multiple interacting drivers. Recent studies have focussed on large lakes and reveal signals that are smoothed in both space and time, and, whilst useful at a continental scale, are of less relevance when understanding short-term, abrupt or immediate impacts of climate and environmental changes. Smaller-scale studies have highlighted spatial complexity and regional heterogeneity of tropical palaeoenvironments in terms of responses to climatic forcing (e.g. the Little Ice Age [LIA]) and questions remain over the spatial extent and synchroneity of climatic changes seen in East African records. Sediment cores from paired crater lakes in western Uganda were examined to assess ecosystem response to long-term climate and environmental change as well as testing responses to multiple drivers using redundancy analysis. These archives provide annual to sub-decadal records of environmental change. The records from the two lakes demonstrate an individualistic response to external (e.g. climatic) drivers, however, some of the broader patterns observed across East Africa suggest that the lakes are indeed sensitive to climatic perturbations such as a dry Mediaeval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 1000–1200 AD) and a relatively drier climate during the main phase of the LIA (1500–1800 AD); though lake levels in western Uganda do fluctuate. The relationship of Ugandan lakes to regional climate drivers breaks down c. 1800 AD, when major changes in the ecosystems appear to be a response to sediment and nutrient influxes as a result of increasing cultural impacts within the lake catchments. The data highlight the complexity of individual lake response to climate forcing, indicating shifting drivers through time. This research also highlights the importance of using multi-lake studies within a landscape to allow for rigorous testing of climate reconstructions, forcing and ecosystem response.

Description: The effects of climate change on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea Ocean Science Discussions, 10, 1525-1557, 2013 Author(s): K. O'Driscoll, B. Mayer, J. Su, and M. Mathis The fate and cycling of two selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), PCB 153 and γ-HCH, in the North Sea in the 21st century have been modelled with combined hydrodynamic and fate and transport ocean models. To investigate the impact of climate variability on POPs in the North Sea in the 21st century, future scenario model runs for three 10 yr periods to the year 2100 using plausible levels of both in situ concentrations and atmospheric, river and open boundary inputs are performed. Since estimates of future concentration levels of POPs in the atmosphere, oceans and rivers are not available, our approach was to reutilise 2005 values in the atmosphere, rivers and at the open ocean boundaries for every year of the simulations. In this way, we attribute differences between the three 10 yr simulations to climate change only. For the HAMSOM and atmospheric forcing, results of the IPCC A1B (SRES) 21st century scenario are utilised, where surface forcing is provided by the REMO downscaling of the ECHAM5 global atmospheric model, and open boundary conditions are provided by the MPIOM global ocean model. Dry gas deposition and volatilisation of γ-HCH increase in the future relative to the present. In the water column, total mass of γ-HCH and PCB 153 remain fairly steady in all three runs. In sediment, γ-HCH increases in the future runs, relative to the present, while PCB 153 in sediment decreases exponentially in all three runs, but even faster in the future, both of which are the result of climate change. Annual net sinks exceed sources at the ends of all periods.

Description: Observations of phytoplankton spring bloom onset triggered by a density front in NW Mediterranean Ocean Science Discussions, 10, 1559-1580, 2013 Author(s): A. Olita, S. Sparnocchia, S. Cusí, L. Fazioli, R. Sorgente, J. Tintoré, and A. Ribotti Phytoplankton bloom in NW Mediterranan sea is a seasonal event that mainly occurrs in a limited area (Gulf of Lyon and Provençal basin) where this phenomenon is promoted by a cyclonic circulation, strong wind-driven mixing and subsequent spring restratification. At the southern boundary of this area a density front (North Balearic Front) separating denser waters from the lighter Modified Atlantic Waters reservoir at south is suspected to trigger weaker and earlier (late winter) blooms by (a) enhanced pumping of nutrients into the euphotic layer and (b) promoting an early restratification of the water column (by frontal instabilities). A multisensor glider round trip, equipped with CTD and fluorimeter, crossing the frontal area in February–March 2013, allowed to observe the bloom triggering after the decrease of intense wind-driven turbulent convection and mixing. Satellite imagery supports and confirms in-situ observations. It was shown that frontal activity has a relevant role in the promotion and acceleration of the dynamical restratification, with a consequent biological response in terms of primary production. Restratification is necessary preconditioning factor for bloom triggering in frontal area, net of other involved mechanism promoting the bloom as the enhanced biological pump. So, like for high-latitude fronts (Taylor and Ferrari, 2011a), also for this mid-latitude oligotrophic region front seems to promote new production by dynamically enahnced restratification inhibiting mixing. Finally, we argued that Sverdrup's Critical Depth criterion seems to apply in the northern well-mixed area, where the zeroing of heat fluxes (and related turbulent convection) does not correspond to a prompt onset of the bloom (which appeared 1 month later).

Description: Observed decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 2004 to 2012 Ocean Science Discussions, 10, 1619-1645, 2013 Author(s): D. A. Smeed, G. McCarthy, S. A. Cunningham, E. Frajka-Williams, D. Rayner, W. E. Johns, C. S. Meinen, M. O. Baringer, B. I. Moat, A. Duchez, and H. L. Bryden The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been observed continuously at 26° N since April 2004. The AMOC and its component parts are monitored by combining a transatlantic array of moored instruments with submarine-cable based measurements of the Gulf Stream and satellite derived Ekman transport. The time series has recently been extended to October 2012 and the results show a downward trend since 2004. From April~2008 to March 2012 the AMOC was an average of 2.7 Sv weaker than in the first four years of observation (95% confidence that the reduction is 0.3 Sv or more). Ekman transport reduced by about 0.2 Sv and the Gulf Stream by 0.5 Sv but most of the change (2.0 Sv) is due to the mid-ocean geostrophic flow. The change of the mid-ocean geostrophic flow represents a strengthening of the subtropical gyre above the thermocline. The increased southward flow of warm waters is balanced by a decrease in the southward flow of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water below 3000 m. The transport of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water slowed by 7% per year (95% confidence that the rate of slowing is greater than 2.5% per year).

Description: Evaluation of seasonal climates of the Mediterranean and nothern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5347-5389, 2013 Author(s): A. Perez-Sanz, G. Li, P. González-Sampériz, and S. P. Harrison We analyze the spatial expression of seasonal climates of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in pre-Industrial ( piControl ) and mid-Holocene ( midHolocene , 6 ka) simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Modern observations show four distinct precipitation regimes characterized by differences in the seasonal distribution and total amount of precipitation: an equatorial band characterized by a double peak in rainfall, the monsoon zone characterized by summer rainfall, the desert characterized by low seasonality and total precipitation, and the Mediterranean zone characterized by summer drought. Most models correctly simulate the position of the Mediterranean and the equatorial climates in the piControl simulations, but over-estimate the extent of monsoon influence and underestimate the extent of desert. However, most models fail to reproduce the amount of precipitation in each zone. Model biases in the simulated magnitude of precipitation are unrelated to whether the models reproduce the correct spatial patterns of each regime. In the midHolocene , the models simulate a reduction in winter rainfall in the equatorial zone, and a northward expansion of the monsoon with a significant increase in summer and autumn rainfall. Precipitation is slightly increased in the desert, mainly in summer and autumn, with northward expansion of the monsoon. Changes in the Mediterranean are small, although there is an increase in spring precipitation consistent with palaeo-observations of increased growing-season rainfall. Comparison with reconstructions shows that most models under-estimate the mid-Holocene changes in annual precipitation, except in the equatorial zone. Biases in the piControl have only a limited influence on midHolocene anomalies in ocean-atmosphere models; carbon-cycle models show no relationship between piControl bias and midHolocene anomalies. Biases in the prediction of the midHolocene monsoon expansion are unrelated to how well the models simulate changes in Mediterranean climate.

Description: Orbital and millennial-scale environmental changes between 64 and 25 ka BP recorded in Black Sea sediments Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5439-5477, 2013 Author(s): L. S. Shumilovskikh, D. Fleitmann, N. R. Nowaczyk, H. Behling, F. Marret, A. Wegwerth, and H. W. Arz High-resolution pollen and dinoflagellate cyst records from marine sediment core 25-GC1 were used to reconstruct vegetation dynamics in Northern Anatolia and surface conditions of the Black Sea between 64 and 25 ka BP. During this period, the dominance of Artemisia in the pollen record indicates a steppe landscape and arid climate conditions. However, the presence of temperate and warm-temperate arboreal pollen suggests the existence of glacial refugia in Northern Anatolia. A general cooling trend towards 25 ka BP is evidenced by the decrease of Quercus and increase of Pinus . There is evidence of orbital-driven vegetation dynamics in Northern Anatolia during 64–25 ka BP with spread of steppe during precession minima (insolation maxima) and development of forests during precession maxima (insolation minima). Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events are characterized by a marked increase in temperate tree pollen, indicating a spread of forests due to warm and wet conditions in Northern Anatolia. The dominance of Pyxidinopsis psilata and Spiniferites cruciformis in the dinocyst record indicates a rather brackish Black Sea during the last glacial period. The decrease of marine indicators (marine dinocysts, acritachs) at ~ 54 ka BP and increase of freshwater algae ( Pediastrum, Botryococcus ) from 32 to 25 ka BP reveals freshening of the Black Sea surface water, related to orbital-driven arid/humid phases in the region, influencing hydrology and level changes of the Black Sea. D–O interstadials are characterized by high dinocyst concentrations and calcium carbonate content, as a result of an increase in primary productivity in the Black Sea. Heinrich events show a similar impact on the environment in Northern Anatolia/Black Sea region as D–O stadials.

Description: Global representation of tropical cyclone-induced ocean thermal changes using Argo data – Part 2: Estimating air–sea heat fluxes and ocean heat content changes Ocean Science Discussions, 11, 2907-2937, 2014 Author(s): L. Cheng, J. Zhu, and R. L. Sriver We use Argo temperature data to examine changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and air–sea heat fluxes induced by tropical cyclones (TC)s on a global scale. A footprint technique that analyzes the vertical structure of cross-track thermal responses along all storm tracks during the period 2004–2012 is utilized (see part I). We find that TCs are responsible for 1.87 PW (11.05 W m −2 when averaging over the global ocean basin) of heat transfer annually from the global ocean to the atmosphere during storm passage (0–3 days) on a global scale. Of this total, 1.05 ± 0.20 PW (4.80 ± 0.85 W m −2 ) is caused by Tropical storms/Tropical depressions (TS/TD) and 0.82 ± 0.21 PW (6.25 ± 1.5 W m −2 ) is caused by hurricanes. Our findings indicate that ocean heat loss by TCs may be a substantial missing piece of the global ocean heat budget. Net changes in OHC after storm passage is estimated by analyzing the temperature anomalies during wake recovery following storm events (4–20 days after storm passage) relative to pre-storm conditions. Results indicate the global ocean experiences a 0.75 ± 0.25 PW (5.98 ± 2.1W m −2 ) net heat gain annually for hurricanes. In contrast, under TS/TD conditions, ocean experiences 0.41 ± 0.21 PW (1.90 ± 0.96 W m −2 ) net ocean heat loss, suggesting the overall oceanic thermal response is particularly sensitive to the intensity of the event. The net ocean heat uptake caused by all storms is 0.34 PW.

Description: Dynamics of turbulent western boundary currents at low latitude in a shallow water model Ocean Science Discussions, 11, 2461-2493, 2014 Author(s): C. Q. C. Akuetevi and A. Wirth The dynamics of low latitude turbulent western boundary currents crossing the equator is considered using numerical results from integrations of a reduced gravity shallow-water model. For viscosity values of 1000 m 2 s −1 and more, the boundary layer dynamics compares well to the analytical Munk-layer solution. When the viscosity is reduced, the boundary layer becomes turbulent and coherent structures in form of anticyclonic eddies, bursts (violent detachments of the viscous sub-layer) and dipoles appear. Three distinct boundary layers emerge, the viscous sub-layer, the advective boundary layer and the extended boundary layer. The first is characterized by a dominant vorticity balance between the viscous transport and the advective transport of vorticity. The second by a balance between the advection of planetary vorticity and the advective transport of relative vorticity. The extended boundary layer is the area to which turbulent motion from the boundary extends. The scaling of the three boundary layer thicknesses with viscosity is evaluated. Characteristic scales of the dynamics and dissipation are determined. A pragmatic approach to determine the eddy viscosity diagnostically for coarse resolution numerical models is proposed.

Description: Calculating the water and heat balances of the Eastern Mediterranean basin using ocean modelling and available meteorological, hydrological, and ocean data Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1301-1338, 2011 Author(s): M. Shaltout and A. Omstedt This paper analyses the Eastern Mediterranean water and heat balances over a 52-yr period. The modelling uses a process-oriented approach resolving the one-dimensional equations of momentum, heat, and salt conservation, with turbulence modelled using a two-equation model. The exchange through the Sicily Channel connecting the Eastern and Western basins is calculated from satellite altimeter data. The results illustrates that calculated surface temperature and salinity follow the reanalysed data well and with biases of −0.4 °C and −0.004, respectively. Monthly and yearly temperature and salinity cycles are also satisfactory simulated. Reanalysed data and calculated water mass structure and heat balance components are in good agreement, indicating that the air-sea interaction and the turbulent mixing are realistically simulated. The study illustrates that the water balance in the Eastern Mediterranean basin is controlled by the difference between inflows/outflows through the Sicily Channel and by the net precipitation rates. The heat balance is controlled by the heat loss from the water surface, sun radiation into the sea, and heat flow through the Sicily Channel, the first two displaying both climate trends. An annual net heat loss of approximately 9 W m −2 was balanced by net heat in flow through the Sicily Channel.

Description: Extraction of spatial-temporal rules from mesoscale eddies in the South China Sea Based on rough set theory Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1261-1300, 2011 Author(s): Y. Du, X. Fan, Z. He, F. Su, C. Zhou, H. Mao, and D. Wang In this paper, a rough set theory is introduced to represent spatial-temporal relationships and extract the corresponding rules from typical mesoscale-eddy states in the South China Sea (SCS). Three decision attributes are adopted in this study, which make the approach flexible in retrieving spatial-temporal rules with different features. Spatial-temporal rules of typical states in the SCS are extracted as three decision attributes, which then are confirmed by the previous works. The results demonstrate that this approach is effective in extracting spatial-temporal rules from typical mesoscale-eddy states, and therefore provides a powerful approach to forecasts in the future. Spatial-temporal rules in the SCS indicate that warm eddies following the rules are generally in the southeastern and central SCS around 2000 m isobaths in winter. Their intensity and vorticity are weaker than those of cold eddies. They usually move a shorter distance. By contrast, cold eddies are in 2000 m-deeper regions of the southwestern and northeastern SCS in spring and fall. Their intensity and vorticity are strong. Usually they move a long distance. In winter, a few rules are followed by cold eddies in the northern tip of the basin and southwest of Taiwan Island rather than warm eddies, indicating cold eddies may be well-regulated in the region. Several warm-eddy rules are achieved west of Luzon Island, indicating warm eddies may be well-regulated in the region as well. Otherwise, warm and cold eddies are distributed not only in the jet flow off southern Vietnam induced by intraseasonal wind stress in summer-fall, but also in the northern shallow water, which should be a focus of future study.

Description: Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: comparing climate model output to pollen-based vegetation reconstructions with emphasis on the region around the tropical Atlantic Ocean Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1973-2019, 2011 Author(s): D. Handiani, A. Paul, and L. Dupont Abrupt climate changes associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) about 18 to 15 thousand years before present (ka BP) strongly affected climate and vegetation patterns not only in the Northern Hemisphere, but also in tropical regions in the South Atlantic Ocean. We used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era (PI), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea surface temperature patterns and enhanced interhemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. It allowed us to investigate the vegetation changes that result from a transition to a drier climate as predicted for northern tropical Africa due to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). We found that a cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those plant-functional types (PFTs) in Northern Tropical Africa that are indicative of an increased desertification, and a retreat of broadleaf forests in Western Africa and Northern South America. We used the PFTs generated by the model to calculate mega-biomes to allow for a direct comparison between paleodata and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well to the modern and LGM sites of the BIOME6000 (v.4.2) reconstruction, except that our present-day simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in Southern Europe and our LGM simulation simulated more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The mega-biomes from the HE1 simulation with glacial background climate were in agreement with paleovegetation data from land and ocean proxies in West, Central, and Northern Tropical Africa as well as Northeast South America. However, our model did not agree well with predicted biome distributions in Eastern South America.

Description: Tracer distribution in the Pacific Ocean following a release off Japan – what does an oceanic general circulation model tell us? Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1441-1466, 2011 Author(s): H. Dietze and I. Kriest In the aftermath of an earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011 considerable amounts of radioactive materials were accidentally released into the sea off Fukushima-Daiichi, Japan. This study uses a three-dimensional eddy-resolving oceanic general circulation model to explore potential pathways of a tracer, similar to 137 Cs, from the coast to the open ocean. Results indicate that enhanced concentrations meet a receding spring bloom offshore and that the area of enhanced concentrations offshore is strongly determined by surface mixed layer dynamics. However, huge uncertainties remain. Among them are the realism of the simulated cross-shelf transport and apparently inconsistent estimates of the particle reactivity of 137 Cs which are discussed in a brief literature review. We argue that a comprehensive set of 137 Cs measurements, including sites offshore, could be a unique opportunity to both evaluate and advance the evaluation of oceanic general circulation models.

Description: Bridging the Faraoni and Selli oceanic anoxic events: short and repetitive dys- and anaerobic episodes during the late Hauterivian to early Aptian in the central Tethys Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 2021-2059, 2011 Author(s): K. B. Föllmi, M. Bôle, N. Jammet, P. Froidevaux, A. Godet, S. Bodin, T. Adatte, V. Matera, D. Fleitmann, and J. E. Spangenberg A detailed stratigraphical and geochemical analysis was performed on the upper part of the Maiolica Formation outcropping in the Breggia (southern Switzerland) and Capriolo sections (northern Italy). In these localities, the Maiolica Formation consists of well-bedded, partly siliceous, pelagic, micritic carbonate, which lodges numerous thin, dark and organic-rich layers. Stable-isotope, phosphorus, organic-carbon and a suite of redox-sensitive trace-metal contents (RSTE: Mo, U, Co, V and As) were measured. Higher densities of organic-rich layers were identified in the uppermost Hauterivian, lower Barremian and the Barremian-Aptian boundary intervals, whereas the upper Barremian interval and the interval immediately following the Barremian-Aptian boundary interval are characterized by lower densities of organic-rich layers. TOC contents, RSTE pattern and C org :P tot ratios indicate that most layers were deposited under dysaerobic rather than anaerobic conditions and that latter conditions were likely restricted to short intervals in the latest Hauterivian, the early Barremian and the pre-Selli early Aptian. Correlations are possible with organic-rich intervals in central Italy (the Gorgo a Cerbara section) and the Boreal northwest German Basin, and with the facies and drowning pattern in the evolution of the Helvetic segment of the northern Tethyan carbonate platform. Our data and correlations suggest that the latest Hauterivian witnessed the progressive installation of dysaerobic conditions in the Tethys, which went along with the onset in sediment condensation, phosphogenesis and platform drowning on the northern Tethyan margin, and which culminated in the Faraoni anoxic episode. This brief episode is followed by further episodes of dysaerobic conditions in the Tethys and the northwest German Basin, which became more frequent and progressively stronger in the late early Barremian. Platform drowning persisted and did not halt before the latest early Barremian. The late Barremian witnessed diminishing frequencies and intensities in dysaerobic conditions, which went along with the progressive installation of the Urgonian carbonate platform. Near the Barremian-Aptian boundary, the increasing density in dysaerobic episodes in the Tethyan and northwest German Basins is paralleled by a change towards heterozoan carbonate production on the northern Tethyan shelf. The following return to more oxygenated conditions is correlated with the second phase of Urgonian platform growth and the period immediately preceding and corresponding to the Selli anoxic episode is characterized by renewed platform drowning and the change to heterozoan carbonate production. Changes towards more humid climate conditions were likely the cause for the repetitive installation of dys- to anaerobic conditions in the Tethyan and Boreal basins and the accompanying changes in the evolution of the carbonate platform towards heterozoan carbonate-producing ecosystems and platform drowning.

Description: Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the Full City accident Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1467-1504, 2011 Author(s): G. Broström, A. Carrasco, L. R. Hole, S. Dick, F. Janssen, J. Mattsson, and S. Berger Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important decision support system (DeSS) useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models is of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the Full City accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws but including an analysis based on a higher resolution model (1.5 km resolution) for the area the model system show results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble using three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

Description: Degree-day melt models for paleoclimate reconstruction from tropical glaciers: calibration from mass balance and meteorological data of the Zongo glacier (Bolivia, 16 ° S) Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 2119-2158, 2011 Author(s): P.-H. Blard, P. Wagnon, J. Lavé, A. Soruco, J.-E. Sicart, and B. Francou This paper describes several simple positive degree-day models (hereafter referred as "PDD models") designed to provide past climatic reconstruction from tropical glacier paleo-equilibrium altitude lines (paleo-ELA). Several ablation laws were tested and calibrated using the monthly ablation and meteorological data recorded from 1997 to 2006 on the Zongo glacier (Cordillera Real, Bolivia, 16° S). The performed inversion analyses indicate that the model provides a better reconstruction of the mass balance if the ablation is modeled with different melting factors for snow and ice. The inclusion of short-wave solar radiations does not induce a substantial improvement. However, this type of model may be very useful to quantify the effects of local topographic (orientation, shading) and to take into account incoming solar radiation changes at geological timescale. The performed sensitivity test indicates that, in spite of the uncertainty in the calibrated snow-ice ablation factors, all models are able to provide paleotemperatures with ~1 °C uncertainty for a given paleoprecipitation. This error includes a 50 m uncertainty in the estimate of the paleoELA. Finally, the models are characterized by different precipitation-temperature sensitivities: if a similar warming is applied, model including different ablation factors for snow and ice requires a lower precipitation increase (by ∼15 %) than others to maintain the ELA.

Description: Impact of combining GRACE and GOCE gravity data on ocean circulation estimates Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1535-1573, 2011 Author(s): T. Janjić, J. Schröter, R. Savcenko, W. Bosch, A. Albertella, R. Rummel, and O. Klatt In this work we examine the impact of assimilation of multi-mission-altimeter data and the GRACE/GOCE gravity fields into the finite element ocean model (FEOM), with the focus on the Southern Ocean circulation. In order to do so, we use the geodetic approach for obtaining the dynamical ocean topography (DOT), that combines the multi-mission-altimeter data and the GRACE/GOCE gravity fields, and requires that both fields be spectrally consistent. The spectral consistency is achieved by filtering of the sea surface height and the geoid using profile approach. Combining the GRACE and GOCE data, a considerably shorter filter length resolving more DOT details can be used. In order to specify the spectrally consistent geodetic DOT we applied the Jekeli-Wahr filter corresponding to 241 km, 121 km, 97 km and 81 km halfwidths for the GRACE/GOCE based gravity field model GOCO01S and to the sea surface. More realistic features of the ocean assimilation were obtained in the Weddel gyre area due to increased resolution of the data fields, particularly for temperature field at the 800 m depth compared to Argo data.

Description: Deglaciation records of 17 O- excess in East Antarctica: reliable reconstruction of oceanic relative humidity from coastal sites Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1845-1886, 2011 Author(s): R. Winkler, A. Landais, H. Sodemann, L. Dümbgen, F. Prié, V. Masson-Delmotte, B. Stenni, and J. Jouzel We measured δ 17 O and δ 18 O in two Antarctic ice cores at EPICA Dome C (EDC) and TALDICE (TD), respectively and computed 17 O- excess with respect to VSMOW. The comparison of our 17 O- excess data with the previous record obtained at Vostok (Landais et al., 2008) revealed differences up to 35 ppm in 17 O- excess mean level and evolution for the three sites. Our data showed that the large increase depicted at Vostok (20 ppm) during the last deglaciation, is a regional and not a general pattern in the temporal distribution of 17 O- excess in East Antarctica. The EDC data display an increase of 13 ppm, whereas the TD data show no significant variation from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Early Holocene (EH). Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic revealed very different source regions for Vostok and EDC compared to TD. These findings combined with the results of a sensitivity analysis, using a Rayleigh-type isotopic model, suggest that relative humidity (RH) at the oceanic source region (OSR) are a determining factor for the spatial differences of 17 O- excess in East Antarctica. However, 17 O- excess in remote sites of continental Antarctica (e.g. Vostok) may be highly sensitive to local effects. Hence, we consider 17 O- excess in coastal East Antarctic ice cores (TD) to be more reliable as a proxy for RH at the OSR.

Description: Impact of oceanic processes on the carbon cycle during the last termination Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1887-1934, 2011 Author(s): N. Bouttes, D. Paillard, D. M. Roche, C. Waelbroeck, M. Kageyama, A. Lourantou, E. Michel, and L. Bopp During the last termination (from ~18 000 yr ago to ~9000 yr ago) the climate significantly warmed and the ice sheets melted. Simultaneously, atmospheric CO 2 increased from ~190 ppm to ~260 ppm. Although this CO 2 rise plays an important role in the deglacial warming, the reasons for its evolution are difficult to explain. Only box models have been used to run transient simulations of this carbon cycle transition, but by forcing the model with data constrained scenarios of the evolution of temperature, sea level, sea ice, NADW formation, Southern Ocean vertical mixing and biological carbon pump. More complex models (including GCMs) have investigated some of these mechanisms but they have only been used to try and explain LGM versus present day steady-state climates. In this study we use a climate-carbon coupled model of intermediate complexity to explore the role of three oceanic processes in transient simulations: the sinking of brines, stratification-dependant diffusion and iron fertilization. Carbonate compensation is accounted for in these simulations. We show that neither iron fertilization nor the sinking of brines alone can account for the evolution of CO 2 , and that only the combination of the sinking of brines and interactive diffusion can simultaneously simulate the increase in deep Southern Ocean δ 13 C. The scenario that agrees best with the data takes into account all mechanisms and favours a rapid cessation of the sinking of brines around 18 000 yr ago, when the Antarctic ice sheet extent was at its maximum. Sea ice formation was then shifted to the open ocean where the salty water is quickly mixed with fresher water, which prevents deep sinking of salty water and therefore breaks down the deep stratification and releases carbon from the abyss. Based on this scenario it is possible to simulate both the amplitude and timing of the CO 2 increase during the last termination in agreement with data. The atmospheric δ 13 C appears to be highly sensitive to changes in the terrestrial biosphere, underlining the need to better constrain the vegetation evolution during the termination.

Description: Wind forcing of salinity anomalies in the Denmark Strait overflow Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1403-1440, 2011 Author(s): S. Hall, S. R. Dye, K. J. Heywood, and M. R. Wadley The overflow of dense water from the Nordic Seas to the North Atlantic through Denmark Strait is an important part of the global thermohaline circulation. The salinity of the overflow plume has been measured by an array of current meters across the continental slope off the coast of Angmagssalik, southeast Greenland since September 1998. During 2004 the salinity of the overflow plume changed dramatically, with the entire width of the array (70 km) freshening between January 2004 and July 2004, with a significant negative salinity anomaly of about 0.06 in May. The event in May represents a fresh anomaly of over 3 standard deviations from the mean since recording began in 1998. We show that the OCCAM 1/12° Ocean General Circulation Model not only reproduces the 2004 freshening event ( r =0.96, p

Description: Productivity response of calcareous nannoplankton in the South Atlantic to the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2) Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 2089-2118, 2011 Author(s): M. Dedert, H. M. Stoll, D. Kroon, N. Shimizu, and P. Ziveri The Early Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2) at ~53.7 Ma is one of multiple hyperthermal events that followed the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~55 Ma). In order to reconstruct the primary productivity response to the ETM2 in the South Atlantic, we have analyzed Sr/Ca ratios in various size fractions of bulk sediments and in picked monogeneric populations of calcareous nannofossils. The latter technique of measuring selected nannofossil populations using the ion probe circumvents possible contamination with secondary calcite. Avoiding such contamination is important for interpretation of the nannoplankton productivity record, since diagenetic processes can bias the productivity signal, as we demonstrate for Sr/Ca measurements in the fine (

Description: Reconstruction of southeast Tibetan Plateau summer cloud cover over the past two centuries using tree ring δ 18 O Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1825-1844, 2011 Author(s): C. Shi, V. Daux, C. Risi, S.-G. Hou, M. Stievenard, M. Pierre, Z. Li, and V. Masson-Delmotte A tree-ring δ 18 O chronology of Linzhi spruce, spanning from AD 1781 to 2005, was developed in Bomi, Southeast Tibetan Plateau (TP). During the period with instrumental data (1961–2005), this record is strongly correlated with regional summer cloud cover, which is supported by a precipitation δ 18 O simulation conducted with the isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model LMDZiso. A 225-yr regional cloud cover reconstruction was therefore achieved. The observed cloud cover increased in the 1980s and this increase is not unprecedented in the entire reconstruction. The reconstructed cloud cover appears smaller and more stable in the 20th century than previously. A late 19th century decrease in our reconstructed cloud cover is consistent with a decrease in the TP glacier accumulation recorded in ice cores. Our data reveal a strong anomaly in the 1810s, which coincides with volcanic eruption in 1809 and the 1815 Tambora volcanic eruption.

Description: Mesoscale variability of water masses in the Arabian Sea as revealed by ARGO floats Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1369-1402, 2011 Author(s): X. Carton and P. L'Hegaret By analysing ARGO float data over the last four years, some aspects of the mesoscale variability of water masses in the Arabian Sea are described. The Red Sea Water outflow is strong in the Southwestern Gulf of Aden, in particular when a cyclonic gyre predominates in this region. Salinities of 36.5 and temperatures of 16 °C are found there between 600 and 1000 m depths. The Red Sea Water is more dilute in the eastern part of the Gulf, and fragments of this water mass can be advected offshore across the gulf or towards its northern coast by the regional gyres. The Red Sea Water outflow is also detected along the northeastern coast of Socotra, and fragments of RSW are found between one and three degrees of latitude north of this island. In the whole Gulf of Aden, the correlation between the deep motions of the floats and the SSH measured by altimetry is strong, at regional scale. The finer scale details of the float trajectories are more often related to the anomalous water masses that they encounter. The Persian Gulf Water (PGW) is found in the float profiles near Ras ash Sharbatat (near 57° E, 18° N), again with 36.5 in salinity and about 18–19 °C in temperature. These observations were achieved in winter when the southwestward monsoon currents can advect PGW along the South Arabian coast. Fragments of PGW are found in the Arabian Sea between 18 and 20° N and 63 and 65° E, showing that this water mass can escape the Gulf of Oman southeastward, in particular during summer.

Description: Volcanic and ENSO effects in China in simulations and reconstructions: Tambora eruption 1815 Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 2061-2088, 2011 Author(s): D. Zhang, R. Blender, and K. Fraedrich The co-operative effects of volcanic eruptions and ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) on the climate in China are analyzed in a millennium simulation for 800–2005 AD using the earth system model (ESM) ECHAM5/MPIOM/JSBACH subject to anthropogenic and natural forcings. The experiment includes two ensembles with weak (5 members) and strong (3 members) total solar irradiance variability. In the absence of El Niño and La Niña events, volcanoes, which are the dominant forcing in both ensembles, cause a dramatic cooling in West China (−2 °C) and a drought in East China during the year after the eruption. The recovery times for the volcano induced cooling vary globally between one and 12 yr; in China these values are mostly within 1–4 yr, but reach 10 yr in the Northeast. Without volcanoes, after El Niño events the summer precipitation is reduced in the North, while South China becomes wetter (indicated by the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, for summers, JJA); La Niña events cause opposite effects. El Niño events in the winters after eruptions compensate the cooling in most regions of China, while La Niña events intensify the cooling (up to −2.5 °C). The simulated impact of the eruption of the Tambora in 1815, which caused the "year without summer" 1816 in Europe and North America and coldness and famines for several years in the Chinese province Yunnan, depends crucially on the ENSO state of the coupled model. A comparison with reconstructed El Niño events shows a moderate cool climate with wet (in the South) and extreme dry anomalies (in the North) persisting for several years.

Description: Using dissolved oxygen concentrations to determine mixed layer depths in the Bellingshausen Sea Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1505-1533, 2011 Author(s): K. Castro-Morales and J. Kaiser Concentrations of oxygen (O 2 ) and other dissolved gases in the oceanic mixed layer are often used to calculate air-sea gas exchange fluxes; for example, in the context of net and gross biological production estimates. The mixed layer depth ( z mix ) may be defined using criteria based on temperature or density differences to a reference depth near the ocean surface. However, temperature criteria fail in regions with strong haloclines such as the Southern Ocean where heat, freshwater and momentum fluxes interact to establish mixed layers. Moreover, the time scales of air-sea exchange differ for gases and heat, so that z mix defined using O 2 may be different to z mix defined using temperature or density. Here, we propose to define an O 2 -based mixed layer depth, z mix (O 2 ), as the depth where the relative difference between the O 2 concentration and a reference value at a depth equivalent to 10 dbar equals 0.5 %. This definition was established by numerical analysis of O 2 profiles in coastal areas of the Southern Ocean and corroborated by visual inspection. Comparisons of z mix (O 2 ) with z mix based on potential temperature differences, i.e. z mix (Δ θ = 0.2 °C) and z mix (Δ θ = 0.5 °C), and potential density differences, i.e. z mix (Δ σ θ = 0.03 kg m −3 ) and z mix (Δ σ θ = 0.125 kg m −3 ), showed that z mix (O 2 ) closely follows z mix (Δ σ θ = 0.03 kg m −3 ). Further comparisons with published z mix climatologies and z mix derived from World Ocean Atlas 2005 data were also performed. To establish z mix for use with biological production estimates in the absence of O 2 profiles, we suggest using z mix (Δ σ θ = 0.03 kg m −3 ), which is also the basis for the climatology by de Boyer Montégut et al. (2004).

Description: N/P ratio of nutrient uptake in the Baltic Sea Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1233-1259, 2011 Author(s): Z. Wan, L. Jonasson, and H. Bi The N/P ratio of nutrient uptake, i.e., the ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) taken by primary producers, varies in different basins and in different seasons in the Baltic Sea. The N/P ratio of nutrient alteration fore and after spring blooms is not same as the N/P ratio of nutrient uptake, but the former can be regarded as an indicator for the later in the Baltic Sea. Based on the observed N/P ratio of nutrient alteration, we hypothesize a non-Redfield N/P ratio of nutrient uptake. The 3D-ecosystem model ERGOM coupled with the circulation model DMI-BSHcmod was used to test the hypothesis. When the Redfield ratio was used in the model, the DIP surplus after spring blooms was too high and resulted in the overly growth of cyanobacteria and too much nitrogen fixation. When the non-Redfield ratio was used in the model, the corresponding problem tended to disappear. In summary, we show that: (1) the Redfield N/P ratio of nutrient uptake in the Baltic Sea tends to be too high; (2) a lower N/P ratio 10:1 appears to work better than the Redfield value; and (3) the N/P ratio of nutrient uptake in the Baltic Proper during spring blooms is around 6:1.

Description: Spectrophotometric high-precision seawater pH determination for use in underway measuring systems Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1339-1367, 2011 Author(s): S. Aßmann, C. Frank, and A. Kötzinger Autonomous sensors are required for a comprehensive documentation of the changes in the marine carbon system and thus to differentiate between its natural variability and anthropogenic impacts. Spectrophotometric determination of pH – a key variable of the seawater carbon system – is particularly suited to achieve precise and drift-free measurements. However, available spectrophotometric instruments are not suitable for integration into automated measurement systems (e.g. FerryBox) since they do not meet the major requirements of reliability, stability, robustness and moderate cost. Here we report on the development and testing of a new indicator-based pH sensor that meets all of these requirements. This sensor can withstand the rough conditions during long-term deployments on ships of opportunities and is applicable on the open ocean as well as in coastal waters with complex background and highly variable conditions. The sensor uses a high resolution CCD spectrometer as detector connected via optical fibers to a custom-made cuvette designed to reduce the impact of air bubbles. The sample temperature can be precisely adjusted (25 °C ± 0.006 °C) using computer-controlled power supplies and Peltier elements thus avoiding the widely used water bath. The overall setup achieves a measurement frequency of 1 min −1 with a precision of ± 0.0007 pH units and an average offset of +0.0018 pH units to a pH reference during shipboard operation. Application of this sensor allows monitoring of seawater pH in autonomous underway systems, providing a key variable for characterization and understanding the marine carbon system.

Description: The Middle Miocene climate as modelled in an atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1935-1972, 2011 Author(s): M. Krapp and J. H. Jungclaus We present simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere model for the Middle Miocene 15 million years ago. The Middle Miocene topography, which alters both large-scale ocean and atmospheric circulations, causes a global warming of 0.7 K compared to present-day. Higher than present-day CO 2 levels of 480 and 720 ppm cause a global warming of 2.8 and 4.9 K, thereby matching proxy-based Middle Miocene global temperature estimates of 3–6 K warming. Higher CO 2 levels and the associated water vapour feedback enhance the greenhouse effect and lead to a polar amplification of the warming. Although oceanic and atmospheric poleward heat transport are individually altered by 10–30 % in the mid and high latitudes, changes of the total heat transport account only for 4–8 %, pointing toward a compensation between oceanic and atmospheric heat transport. Our model reproduces a denser vegetation in agreement with fossil records. These results suggest that higher than present-day CO 2 levels are essential to drive the warm Middle Miocene climate.

Description: Synchronicity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon variability and Northern Hemisphere climate change since the last deglaciation Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 2159-2192, 2011 Author(s): T. Shinozaki, M. Uchida, K. Minoura, M. Kondo, S. F. Rella, and Y. Shibata Understanding of the mechanism of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is required for the prediction of climate change in East Asia in a scenario of modern global warming. In this study, we present high-resolution climate records from peat sediments in Northeast Japan to reconstruct the EASM variability based on peat bulk cellulose δ 13 C since the last deglaciation. We used a 8.8 m long peat sediment core collected from the Tashiro Bog, Northeast Japan. Based on 42 14 C measurements, the core bottom reaches ~15.5 ka. δ 13 C, accumulation rate and accumulation flux time-series correlate well to Greenland ice core δ 18 O variability, suggesting that the climate record in Northeast Japan is linked to global climate changes. The δ 13 C record at Tashiro Bog and other paleo-EASM records at Northeast and Southern China consistently demonstrate that hydrological environments were spatially different in mid-high and mid-low latitude regions over the last 15.5 kyr. During global cooling (warming) periods, mid-high and mid-low latitude regions were characterized by wet (dry) and dry (wet) environments, respectively. We suggest that these climatic patterns are related to the migration of the EASM-related rain belt during global climate changes, as a consequence of variations in intensity and location of both the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (STH). The location of the rain belt largely influences the East Asian hydrological environment. Our δ 13 C time-series are characterized by a 1230 yr throughout the Holocene and a 680 yr periodicity during the early Holocene. The 1230 yr periodicity is in agreement with North Atlantic ice-rafted debris (IRD) events, suggesting a teleconnection between the Northeast Japan and the North Atlantic during the Holocene. In addition, it is the first evidence that the Bond events were recorded in terrestrial sediment in Japan. On the other hand, the 680 yr periodicity between 10.0 and 8.0 kyr is consistent with a prominent 649 yr solar activity cycle, suggesting that solar activity affected EASM precipitation during the Hypsithermal, when orbital-scale solar insolation was at a maximum in the Northern Hemisphere.

Description: A pre-operational 3-D variational data assimilation system in the North/Baltic Sea Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1131-1160, 2011 Author(s): S. Y. Zhuang, W. W. Fu, and J. She This paper describes the implementation and evaluation of a pre-operational three dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system for the North/Baltic Sea. The univariate analysis for temperature and salinity is applied in a 3DVAR scheme in which the horizontal component of the background error covariance is modeled by an isotropic recursive filter (IRF) and the vertical component is represented by dominant Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of the background error. Observations of temperature and salinity ( T / S ) profiles in the North/Baltic Sea are assimilated in the year of 2005. Effectiveness of the data assimilation scheme is assessed by comparison with the control run that no assimilation is done. The statistical analysis indicates that the model simulation is significantly improved with the 3DVAR scheme. On average, the root mean square error (RMSE) of temperature and salinity is reduced by 0.2 °C and 0.25 psu in the North/Baltic Sea. In addition, the bias of temperature and salinity is also decreased by 0.1 °C and 0.2 psu, respectively. Starting from an analyzed initial state, one month simulation without assimilation is carried out with the aim of examining the persistence of the initial impact. It is shown that the assimilated initial state can impact the model simulation for nearly two weeks. The influence on salinity is more pronounced than temperature.

Description: Sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature and δ 18 O to orbital and CO 2 forcing: climate simulations and ice core data Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1585-1630, 2011 Author(s): V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Braconnot, G. Hoffmann, J. Jouzel, M. Kageyama, A. Landais, Q. Lejeune, C. Risi, L. Sime, J. Sjolte, D. Swingedouw, and B. Vinther The sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature to orbital and CO 2 forcing is investigated using the NorthGRIP ice core data and coupled ocean-atmosphere IPSL-CM4 model simulations. These simulations were conducted in response to different interglacial orbital configurations, and to increased CO 2 concentrations. These different forcings cause very distinct simulated seasonal and latitudinal temperature and water cycle changes, limiting the analogies between the last interglacial and future climate. However, the IPSL-CM4 model shows similar magnitudes of Arctic summer warming and climate feedbacks in response to 2 × CO 2 and orbital forcing of the last interglacial period (126 000 yr ago). The IPSL model produces a remarkably linear relationship between top of atmosphere incoming summer solar radiation and simulated changes in summer and annual mean central Greenland temperature. This contrasts with the stable isotope record from the Greenland ice cores, showing a multi-millennial lagged response to summer insolation. During the early part of interglacials, the observed lags may be explained by ice sheet-ocean feedbacks linked with changes in ice sheet elevation and the impact of meltwater on ocean circulation, as investigated with sensitivity studies. A quantitative comparison between ice core data and climate simulations requires to explore the stability of the stable isotope – temperature relationship. Atmospheric simulations including water stable isotopes have been conducted with the LMDZiso model under different boundary conditions. This set of simulations allows to calculate a temporal Greenland isotope-temperature slope (0.3–0.4 ‰ per °C) during warmer than present Arctic climates, in response to increased CO 2 , increased ocean temperature and orbital forcing. This temporal slope appears twice as small as the modern spatial gradient and is consistent with other ice core estimates. A preliminary comparison with other model results implies that other mechanisms could also play a role. This suggests that further simulations and detailed inter-model comparisons are also likely to be of benefit. Comparisons with Greenland ice core stable isotope data reveals that IPSL/LMDZiso simulations strongly underestimate the amplitude of the ice core signal during the last interglacial, which could reach +8–10 °C at fixed-elevation. While the model-data mismatch may result from missing positive feedbacks (e.g. vegetation), it could also be explained by a reduced elevation of the central Greenland ice sheet surface by 300–400 m.

Description: Numerical simulation and decomposition of kinetic energies in the Central Mediterranean Sea: insight on mesoscale circulation and energy conversion Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1161-1214, 2011 Author(s): R. Sorgente, A. Olita, P. Oddo, L. Fazioli, and A. Ribotti The spatial and temporal variability of eddy and mean kinetic energy of the Central Mediterranean Sea has been investigated, from January 2008 to December 2010, by mean of a numerical simulation mainly to quantify the mesoscale dynamics and their relationships with physical forcing. In order to understand the energy redistribution processes, the baroclinic energy conversion has been analysed, suggesting hypotheses about the drivers of the mesoscale activity in this area. The ocean model used is based on the Princeton Ocean Model implemented at 1/32° horizontal resolution. Surface momentum and buoyancy fluxes are interactively computed by mean of standard bulk formulae using predicted model Sea Surface Temperature and atmospheric variables provided by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast operational analyses. At its lateral boundaries the model is one-way nested within the Mediterranean Forecasting System operational products. The model domain has been subdivided in four sub-regions: Sardinia channel and southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Sicily channel, eastern Tunisian shelf and Libyan Sea. Temporal evolution of eddy and mean kinetic energy has been analysed, on each of the four sub-regions composing the model domain, showing different behaviours. On annual scales and within the first 5 m depth, the eddy kinetic energy represents approximately the 60 % of the total kinetic energy over the whole domain, confirming the strong mesoscale nature of the surface current flows in this area. The analyses show that the model well reproduces the path and the temporal behaviour of the main known sub-basin circulation features. New mesoscale structures have been also identified, from numerical results and direct observations, for the first time as the Pantelleria Vortex and the Medina Gyre. The classical the kinetic energy decomposition (eddy and mean) allowed to depict and to quantify the stable and fluctuating parts of the circulation in the region, and to differentiate the four sub-regions as function of relative and absolute strength of the mesoscale activity. Furthermore the Baroclinic Energy Conversion term shows that in the Sardinia Channel the mesoscale activity, due to baroclinic instabilities, is significantly larger than in the other sub-regions, while a negative sign of the energy conversion, meaning a transfer of energy from the Eddy Kinetic Energy to the Eddy Available Potential Energy, has been recorded only for the surface layers of the Sicily Channel during summer.

Description: Modelling of the anthropogenic tritium transient and its decay product helium-3 in the Mediterranean Sea using a high-resolution regional model Ocean Science Discussions, 11, 2691-2732, 2014 Author(s): M. Ayache, J.-C. Dutay, P. Jean-Baptiste, K. Beranger, T. Arsouze, J. Beuvier, J. Palmieri, B. Le-vu, and W. Roether This numerical study provides the first simulation of the anthropogenic tritium invasion and its decay product helium-3 ( 3 He) in the Mediterranean Sea. The simulation covers the entire tritium ( 3 H) transient generated by the atmospheric nuclear-weapon tests performed in the 1950s and early 1960s and run till 2011. Tritium, helium-3 and their derived age estimates are particularly suitable for studying intermediate and deep-water ventilation and spreading of water masses at intermediate/deep levels. The simulation is made using a high resolution regional model NEMO-MED12 forced at the surface with prescribed tritium evolution derived from observations. The simulation is compared to measurements of tritium and helium-3 performed along large-scale transects in the Mediterranean Sea during the last few decades on cruises of Meteor M5/6, M31/1, M44/4, M51/2, M84/3, and Poseidon 234. The results show that the input function used for the tritium, generates a realistic distribution of the main hydrographic features of the Mediterranean Sea circulation. In the eastern basin, the results highlight the weak formation of Adriatic Deep Water in the model, which explains its weak contribution to the Eastern Mediterranean Deep Water in the Ionian sub-basin. It produces a realistic representation of the Eastern Mediterranean Transient signal, simulating a deep-water formation in the Aegean sub-basin at the beginning of the 1993, with a realistic timing of deep-water renewal in the eastern basin. In the western basin, the unusual intense deep convection event of winter 2005 in the Gulf of Lions during the Western Mediterranean Transition is simulated. However the spreading of the recently ventilated deep water toward the South is too weak. The ventilation and spreading of the Levantine Intermediate Water from the eastern basin toward the western basin is simulated with realistic tracer-age distribution compared to observation-based estimates.

Description: The sharp decline of East Asian summer monsoon at mid-Holocene indicated by the lake-wetland transition in the Sanjiang Plain, northeastern China Climate of the Past Discussions, 10, 4595-4622, 2014 Author(s): Z. Q. Zhang, G. P. Wang, X. G. Lv, H. J. Jia, and Q. H. Xu The timing of the waxing and wining of the East Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene is still under debate. In present study, we present the high-resolution grain-size and LOI records from a well-dated mud/peat profile to reveal the lake-wetland transition in the Sanjiang Plain and discuss its significance to Holocene monsoon evolutions. The results show that the shallow-water lakes have developed in low-lying areas of the plain before 4600 yr BP, corresponding to the Holocene monsoon maximum. Thereafter, the wetlands began to initiate with the extinction of the paleolakes, marking a lake-shrinking stage with the relative dry climate. Considering the prevalent monsoon climate in the Sanjiang Plain, we suggest the lake-wetland transition at 4600 yr BP indicate a sharp decline of the summer monsoon rather than the basin infilling process. Such a remarkable monsoon weakening event has been widely documented in northern China, and we associated it with the ocean–atmosphere interacting processes in low-latitude regions.

Description: A two thousand year annual record of snow accumulation rates for Law Dome, East Antarctica Climate of the Past Discussions, 10, 4469-4497, 2014 Author(s): J. Roberts, C. Plummer, T. Vance, T. van Ommen, A. Moy, S. Poynter, A. Treverrow, M. Curran, and S. George Accurate high resolution records of snow accumulation rates in Antarctica are crucial for estimating ice sheet mass balance and subsequent sea level change. Snowfall rates at Law Dome, East Antarctica, have been linked with regional atmospheric circulation to mid-latitudes as well as regional Antarctic snowfall. Here, we extend the Law Dome accumulation record from 750 to 2035 years, using recent annual layer dating that extends to AD −22. Accumulation rates were calculated as the ratio of measured to modelled layer thicknesses, multiplied by the long term mean accumulation rate. The modelled layer thicknesses were based on a power law vertical strain rate profile fitted to observed annual layer thickness. The periods AD 380–442, AD 727–783 and AD 1970–2009 have above average snow accumulation rates, while AD 663–704, AD 933–975 and AD 1429–1468 were below average. The calculated snow accumulation rates show good correlation with atmospheric reanalysis estimates, and significant spatial correlation over a wide expanse of East Antarctica, demonstrating that the Law Dome record captures larger scale variability across a large region of East Antarctica well beyond the immediate vicinity of the Law Dome summit. Spectral analysis reveals periodicities in the snow accumulation record which may be related to ENSO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation frequencies.

Description: Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age–depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model Climate of the Past Discussions, 10, 4499-4533, 2014 Author(s): J. P. Werner and M. P. Tingley Reconstructions of late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurement on tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances may be achievable if time uncertain proxies could be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches to accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty – in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space–time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here we demonstrate how Bayesian Hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time uncertain proxies. Critically, while a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age-model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the climate reconstruction, as compared with the current de-facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments.

Description: High-resolution records of the beryllium-10 solar activity proxy in ice from Law Dome, East Antarctica: measurement, reproducibility and principal trends Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 677-713, 2011 Author(s): J. B. Pedro, A. M. Smith, K. J. Simon, T. D. van Ommen, and M. A. J. Curran Three near-monthly resolution 10 Be records are presented from the Dome Summit South (DSS) ice core site, Law Dome, East Antarctica. The chemical preparation and Accelerator Mass Spectrometer (AMS) measurement of these records is described. The reproducibility of 10 Be records at DSS is assessed through intercomparison of the ice core data with data from two previously published and contemporaneous snow pits. We find generally good agreement between the five records, comparable to that observed between other trace chemical records from the site. This result allays concerns raised by a previous Antarctic study (Moraal et al., 2005) about poor reproducibility of ice core 10 Be records. A single composite series is constructed from the three ice cores providing a monthly-resolved record of 10 Be concentrations at DSS over the past decade (1999 to 2009). To our knowledge, this is the first published ice core data spanning the recent exceptional solar minimum of solar cycle 23. 10 Be concentrations are significantly correlated to the cosmic ray flux recorded by the McMurdo neutron monitor ( r xy = 0.64, with 95% CI of 0.53 to 0.71), suggesting that solar modulation of the atmospheric production rate may explain up to ~40% of the variance in 10 Be concentrations at DSS. Sharp concentration peaks occur in most years during the summer-to-autumn, possibly caused by stratospheric incursions. Our results underscore the presence of both production and meteorological signals in ice core 10 Be data.

Description: Tracking climate variability in the western Mediterranean during the Late Holocene: a multiproxy approach Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 635-675, 2011 Author(s): V. Nieto-Moreno, F. Martínez-Ruiz, S. Giralt, F. Jiménez-Espejo, D. Gallego-Torres, M. Rodrigo-Gámiz, J. García-Orellana, M. Ortega-Huertas, and G. J. de Lange Climate variability in the western Mediterranean is reconstructed for the last 4000 yr using marine sediments recovered in the west Algerian-Balearic basin, near the Alboran basin. Fluctuations in chemical and mineralogical sediment composition as well as grain size distribution are linked to fluvial-eolian oscillations, changes in redox conditions and paleocurrent intensity. Multivariate analyses allowed us to characterize three main groups of geochemical and mineralogical proxies determining the sedimentary record of this region. These three statistical groups were applied to reconstruct paleoclimate conditions at high resolution during the Late Holocene. An increase in fluvial-derived elements (Rb/Al, Ba/Al, REE/Al, Si/Al, Ti/Al, Mg/Al and K/Al ratios), finer grain size, slower flows and oxygen-poor bottom waters – as suggested by sortable silt (10–63 μm), clays ( 〈 2 μm) and redox-sensitive elements (V/Al, Cr/Al, Ni/Al and Zn/Al ratios) – depict the Roman Humid Period (RHP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), while drier environmental conditions are recognized during the Late Bronze Age-Iron Age (LBA-IA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). Although no Ba excess was registered, other paleoproductivity indicators (total organic carbon content, Br/Al ratio, and organometallic ligands such as U and Cu) display the highest values during the RHP, this period exhibiting by far the most intense productivity of the last 4000 yr. These marine sediments evidence oscillations that support the link of the westernmost Mediterranean climate with the North Atlantic coupled ocean-atmosphere climatic system, pointing to solar irradiance and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability as the main driving mechanisms behind natural climate variability over decadal to centennial time-scales for the last 4000 yr.

Description: Impact of maximum borehole depths on inverted temperature histories in borehole paleoclimatology Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 715-748, 2011 Author(s): H. Beltrami, J. E. Smerdon, G. S. Matharoo, and N. Nickerson A quantitative assessment is presented for the impact of the maximum depth of a temperature-depth profile on the estimate of the climatic transient and the resultant ground surface temperature (GST) reconstruction used in borehole paleoclimatology. The depth of the profile is important because the downwelling climatic signal must be separated from the quasi-steady state thermal regime established by the energy in the Earth's interior. This component of the signal is estimated as a linear increase in temperature with depth from the lower section of a borehole temperature profile, which is assumed to be unperturbed by recent changes in climate at the surface. The validity of this assumption is dependent on both the subsurface thermophysical properties and the character of the downwelling climatic signal. Such uncertainties can significantly impact the determination of the quasi-steady state thermal regime, and consequently the magnitude of the temperature anomaly interpreted as a climatic signal. The quantitative effects and uncertainties that arise from the analysis of temperature-depth profiles of different depths are presented. Results demonstrate that widely different GST histories can be derived from a single temperature profile truncated at different depths. Borehole temperature measurements approaching 500–600 m depths are shown to provide the most robust GST reconstructions spanning 500 to 1000 ybp. It is further shown that the bias introduced by a temperature profile of depths shallower than 500–600 m remains even if the time span of the reconstruction target is shortened.

Description: Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum – a model study Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1457-1509, 2011 Author(s): F. Adloff, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Kucera, R. Grimm, E. Maier-Reimer, G. Schmiedl, and K. Emeis Nine thousand years ago, the Northern Hemisphere experienced enhanced seasonality caused by an orbital configuration with a minimum of the precession index. To assess the impact of the "Holocene Insolation Maximum" (HIM) on the Mediterranean Sea, we use a regional ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric input derived from global simulations. A stronger seasonal cycle is simulated in the model, which shows a relatively homogeneous winter cooling and a summer warming with well-defined spatial patterns, in particular a subsurface warming in the Cretan and Western Levantine areas. The comparison between the SST simulated for the HIM and the reconstructions from planktonic foraminifera transfer functions shows a poor agreement, especially for summer, when the vertical temperature gradient is strong. However, a reinterpretation of the reconstructions is proposed, to consider the conditions throughout the upper water column. Such a depth-integrated approach accounts for the vertical range of preferred habitat depths of the foraminifera used for the reconstructions and strongly improves the agreement between modelled and reconstructed temperature signal. The subsurface warming is recorded by both model and proxies, with a light shift to the south in the model results. The mechanisms responsible for the peculiar subsurface pattern are found to be a combination of enhanced downwelling and wind mixing due to strengthened Etesian winds, and enhanced thermal forcing due to the stronger summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Together, these processes induce a stronger heat transfer from the surface to the subsurface during late summer in the Western Levantine; this leads to an enhanced heat piracy in this region.

Description: The Aegean Sea marine security decision support system Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1025-1053, 2011 Author(s): L. Perivoliotis, G. Krokos, K. Nittis, and G. Korres As part of the integrated ECOOP (European Coastal Sea Operational observing and Forecasting System) project, HCMR upgraded the already existing standalone Oil Spill Forecasting System for the Aegean Sea, initially developed for the Greek Operational Oceanography System (POSEIDON), into an active element of the European Decision Support System (EuroDeSS). The system is accessible through a user friendly web interface where the case scenarios can be fed into the oil spill drift model component, while the synthetic output contains detailed information about the distribution of oil spill particles and the oil spill budget and it is provided both in text based ECOOP common output format and as a series of sequential graphics. The main development steps that were necessary for this transition were the modification of the forcing input data module in order to allow the import of other system products which are usually provided in standard formats such as NetCDF and the transformation of the model's calculation routines to allow use of current, density and diffusivities data in z instead of sigma coordinates. During the implementation of the Aegean DeSS, the system was used in operational mode in order support the Greek marine authorities in handling a real accident that took place in North Aegean area. Furthermore, the introduction of common input and output files by all the partners of EuroDeSS extended the system's interoperability thus facilitating data exchanges and comparison experiments.

Description: How well can we derive Global Ocean Indicators from Argo data? Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 999-1024, 2011 Author(s): K. von Schuckmann and P.-Y. Le Traon Argo deployments began in the year 2000 and by November 2007 the array was 100 % complete, covering the global ocean from the surface down to 2000 m depth. In this study, Argo temperature and salinity measurements during the period 2005 to 2010 are used to develop a revised estimation of Global Ocean Indicators (GOIs) such as heat content variability, freshwater content and steric height. These revised indices are based on a simple box averaging scheme using a weighted mean. They include a proper estimation of the errors due to data handling methods and climatology uncertainties. A global ocean heat content change (OHC) trend of 0.55 ± 0.1 W m −2 is estimated over the time period 2005–2010. Similarly, a global steric sea level (GSSL) rise of 0.69 ± 0.14 mm yr −1 is observed. The global ocean freshwater content (OFC) trend is barely significant. Results show that there is significant interannual variability at global scale, especially for global OFC. Annual mean GOIs from the today's Argo samling can be derived with an accuracy of ±0.10 cm for GSSL, ±0.21 × 10 8 J m −2 for global OHC, and ±700 km 3 for global OFC. Long-term trends (15 yr) of GOIs based on the complete Argo sampling (10–1500 m depth) can be performed with an accuracy of about ±0.03 mm yr −1 for steric rise, ±0.02 W m −2 for ocean warming and ±20 km 3 yr −1 for global OFC trends – under the assumption that no systematic errors remain in the observing system.

Description: NALPS: a precisely dated European climate record 120–60 ka Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1049-1072, 2011 Author(s): R. Boch, H. Cheng, C. Spötl, R. L. Edwards, X. Wang, and Ph. Häuselmann Accurate and precise chronologies are essential in understanding the rapid and recurrent climate variations of the Last Glacial – known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events – found in the Greenland ice cores and other climate archives. The existing chronological uncertainties during the Last Glacial, however, are still large. Radiometric age data and stable isotopic signals from speleothems are promising to improve the absolute chronology. We present a record of several precisely dated stalagmites from caves located at the northern rim of the Alps (NALPS), a region that favours comparison with the climate in Greenland. The record covers most of the interval from 120 to 60 ka at an average temporal resolution of 2 to 22 a and 2 σ-age uncertainties of ca. 200 to 500 a. The rapid and large oxygen isotope shifts of 1 to 4.5‰ occurred within decades to centuries and strongly mimic the Greenland D-O pattern. Compared to the current Greenland ice-core timescale the NALPS record suggests overall younger ages of rapid warming and cooling transitions between 120 to 60 ka. In particular, there is a discrepancy in the duration of stadial 22 between the ice-core and the stalagmite chronology (ca. 3000 vs. 3650 a). The short-lived D-O events 18 and 18.1 are not recorded in NALPS, provoking questions with regard to the nature and the regional expression of these events. NALPS resolves recurrent short-lived climate changes within the cold Greenland stadial (GS) and warm interstadial (GI) successions, i.e. abrupt warming events preceding GI 21 and 23 (precursor-type events) and at the end of GI 21 and 25 (rebound-type events), as well as intermittent cooling events during GI 22 and 24. Such superimposed Last Glacial events have not been documented in Europe before.

Description: Silicon pool dynamics and biogenic silica export in the Southern Ocean, inferred from Si-isotopes Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 639-674, 2011 Author(s): F. Fripiat, A.-J. Cavagna, F. Dehairs, S. Speich, L. André, and D. Cardinal Water column silicon isotopic signatures (δ 30 Si) of silicic acid (Si(OH) 4 ) in the Southern Ocean were measured along a meridional transect from South Africa (Subtropical Zone) down to 57° S (northern Weddell Gyre). These data are the first reported for a summer transect across the whole Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). δ 30 Si variations are large in the upper 1000 m, reflecting the effect of the silica pump superimposed upon meridional transfer across the ACC: the transport of Antarctic surface waters northward by a net Ekman drift and their convergence and mixing with warmer upper-ocean Si-depleted waters to the north. Using Si isotopic signatures, we determined different mixing interfaces between ACC water masses: the Antarctic Surface Water (AASW), the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), and the thermoclines in the low latitude areas. The residual silicic acid concentrations of end-members control the δ 30 Si alteration of the mixing products. With the exception of AASW, all mixing interfaces have a highly Si-depleted mixed layer end-member. These processes deplete the silicic acid AASW concentration across the different interfaces northward without significantly changing the AASW δ 30 Si. By comparing our new results with a previous study in the Australian sector we show that during the circumpolar transport of the ACC eastward, there is a slight but significant Si-isotopic lightening of the silicic acid pools from the Atlantic to the Australian sectors. This results either from the dissolution of biogenic silica in the deeper layers and/or from an isopycnal mixing with the deep water masses in the different oceanic basins: North Atlantic Deep Water in the Atlantic, and Indian Ocean deep water in the Indo-Australian sector. This eastward lightening is further transmitted to the subsurface waters, representing mixing interfaces between the surface and deeper layers. Using the Si-isotopic constraint, we estimate for the Greenwich Meridian a net biogenic silica production which should be representative of the annual export, at 4.5 ± 1.1 and 1.5 ± 0.4 mol Si m −2 for the Antarctic Zone and Polar Front Zone, respectively, in agreement with previous estimations. The summertime Si-supply into the mixed layer via vertical mixing was also assessed at 1.5 ± 0.4 and 0.1 ± 0.5 mol Si m −2 , respectively.

Description: Quality control of automated hyperspectral remote sensing measurements from a seaborne platform Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 613-638, 2011 Author(s): S. P. Garaba, M. R. Wernand, and O. Zielinski In this study four data quality flags are presented for automated and unmanned above-water hyperspectral optical measurements collected underway in the North Sea, The Minch, Irish Sea and Celtic Sea in April/May 2009. Coincident to these optical measurements a DualDome D12 (Mobotix, Germany) camera system was used to capture sea surface and sky images. The first three flags are based on meteorological conditions, to select erroneous incoming solar irradiance ( E S ) taken during dusk, dawn, before significant incoming solar radiation could be detected or under rainfall. Furthermore, the relative azimuthal angle of the optical sensors to the sun is used to identify possible sunglint free sea surface zones. A total of 629 spectra remained after applying the meteorological masks (first three flags). Based on this dataset, a fourth flag for sunglint was generated by analysing and evaluating water leaving radiance ( L W ) and remote sensing reflectance ( R RS ) spectral behaviour in the presence and absence of sunglint salient in the simultaneously available sea surface images. Spectra conditions satisfying "mean L W (700–950 nm) 〈 2 mW m −2 nm −1 Sr −1 " or alternatively "minimum R RS (700–950 nm) 〈 0.010 Sr −1 ", mask the most measurements affected by sunglint, providing efficient flagging of sunglint in automated quality control. It is confirmed that valid optical measurements can be performed 0° ≤ Φ ≤ 360° although 90° ≤ Φ ≤ 135° is recommended.

Description: Numerical modelling of POC yearly dynamics in the southern Baltic under variable scenarios of nutrients, light and temperature Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 675-700, 2011 Author(s): L. Dzierzbicka-Glowacka, K. Kuliński, A. Maciejewska, J. Jakacki, and J. Pempkowiak This paper presents various scenarios of the particulate organic carbon (POC) in the southern Baltic Sea. The study is based on a one-dimensional Particulate Organic Carbon model (1-D POC). Mathematically, the pelagic variables of 1-D POC model are described by a second-order partial differential equations of the diffusion type with biogeochemical sources and sinks. The POC concentration is determined as the sum of phytoplankton, zooplankton and dead organic matter (detritus) concentrations. The temporal changes in the phytoplankton biomass are caused by primary production, mortality, grazing by zooplankton and sinking. The zooplankton biomass is affected by ingestion, excretion, faecal production, mortality, and carnivorous grazing. The changes in the pelagic detritus concentration are determined by input of: dead phytoplankton and zooplankton, natural mortality of predators, faecal pellets, and sinks: sedimentation, zooplankton grazing and biochemical decomposition. The 1-D POC model was used to simulate temporal dynamics of POC in the southern Baltic Sea (Gdansk Deep, Bornholm Deep and Gotland Deep) under scenarios characterized by different temperature, nutrients and light. Daily, monthly, seasonal and annual variabilities of POC in the upper water layer are presented for the different scenarios. The starting-point of the numerical simulations was assumed as average values of the investigated pelagic variables for 1965–1998 period. Two- to three-fold increases of POC concentrations in late spring were revealed as well as the shift towards postponed maximum POC concentration. It is speculated that, due to POC increase, oxygenation of under-halocline water layer will decrease, while supply of food to organisms from higher trophic level should increase.

Description: Holocene vegetation and biomass changes on the Tibetan Plateau – a model-pollen data comparison Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1073-1111, 2011 Author(s): A. Dallmeyer, M. Claussen, U. Herzschuh, and N. Fischer Results of a transient numerical experiment, performed in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model with orbital forcing alone, are compared to pollen-based vegetation reconstructions from four representative sites on the Tibetan Plateau, covering the last 6000 years. Causes of the vegetation change and consequences for the biomass storage are analysed. In general, simulated and reconstructed vegetation trends at each site are in good agreement. Both methods reveal a general retreat of the biomass-rich vegetation that is particularly manifested in a strong decrease of forests. However, model and reconstructions differ with regard to the climatic factors causing this vegetation change. The reconstructions primarily identify decreasing summer monsoon precipitation as the responsible mechanism for the vegetation shift. In the model, the land cover change originates from differences in near-surface air temperature arising out of orbitally-induced insolation changes. According to the model results, the averaged forest fraction on the Plateau is shrinking by almost one-third from mid-Holocene (41.4%) to present-day (28.3%). Shrubs, whose fraction is quadrupled at present-day (12.3%), replace most of this forest. Gras fraction increases from 38.9% during the mid-Holocene to 42.3% at present-day. This land cover change results in a decrease of living biomass by 0.62 kgC m −2 . Total biomass on the Tibetan Plateau decreases by 1.9 kgC m −2 , i.e. approx. 6.64 PgC are released due to the natural land cover change.

Description: Hydrological variability in northern Levant over the past 250 ka Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1511-1566, 2011 Author(s): F. Gasse, L. Vidal, A.-L. Develle, and E. Van Campo The Levant features sharp climatic gradients from North to South and from West to East resulting in a large environmental diversity. The lack of long-term record from the northern Levant limits our understanding of the regional response to glacial-interglacial boundary conditions in this key area. The 250 ka paleoenvironmental reconstruction presented here is a first step to fill this geographical gap. The record comes from a 36 m lacustrine-palustrine sequence cored in the small intra-mountainous karstic basin of Yammoûneh (northern Lebanon). The paper combines times series of sediment properties, paleovegetation, and carbonate oxygen isotopes, to yield a comprehensive view of paleohydrologic-paleoclimatic fluctuations in the basin over the two last glacial-interglacial cycles. Efficient moisture was higher than today during interglacial peaks around 240, 215–220, ~130–120 ka and 11–9 ka (although under different Precipitation minus Evaporation balance). Moderate wetting events took place around 170, 150, 105–100, 85–75, 60–55 and 35 ka. The penultimate glacial period was generally wetter than the last glacial stage. Local aridity culminated from the LGM to 15 ka, possibly linked to water storage as ice in the surrounding highlands. An overall decrease in local water availability is observed from the profile base to top. Fluctuations in available water seem to be primarily governed by changes in local summer insolation controlled by the orbital eccentricity modulated by the precession cycle, and by changes in precipitation and temperature seasonality. Our record is roughly consistent with long-term climatic fluctuations in northeastern Mediterranean lands, except during the penultimate glacial phase. It shares some features with speleothem records of western Israel. Conversely, after 130 ka, it is clearly out of phase with hydrological changes in the Dead Sea basin. Potential causes of these spatial heterogeneities, e.g., changes in atmospheric circulation, regional topographic patterns, site-specific climatic and hydrological factors, are discussed.

Description: Exploring errors in paleoclimate proxy reconstructions using Monte Carlo simulations: paleotemperature from mollusk and coral geochemistry Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 2477-2510, 2011 Author(s): M. Carré, J. P. Sachs, J. M. Wallace, and C. Favier Reconstructions of the past climate from proxy records involve a wide range of uncertainties at every step of the process. These uncertainties and the subsequent error bar in the reconstruction of a paleoclimatic variable need to be understood and quantified in order to properly interpret the reconstructed variability and to perform meaningful comparisons with climate model outputs. Classic proxy calibration-validation techniques are not well-suited for identifying the causes of reconstruction errors, estimating their relative contribution, or understanding how errors accumulate from a multitude of sources. In this study, we focus on high resolution proxy records based on calcium carbonate geochemistry of sessile organisms such as mollusks, corals, or sclerosponges, and propose an approach based on Monte Carlo simulations with simple numerical surrogate proxies. A freely available algorithm (MoCo, http://www.isem.cnrs.fr/spip.php?rubrique472 ) is provided for estimating systematic and standard errors of mean temperature, seasonality and variance reconstructed from marine accretionary archive geochemistry. This algorithm is then used for sensitivity experiments in a case study to characterize and quantitatively evaluate the sensitivity of systematic and standard errors to sampling randomness, stochastic uncertainty sources and systematic proxy limitations. The results of the experiments yield an illustrative example of the range of variations that climate reconstruction errors may undergo, and bring to light their complexity. One of the main improvements of this method is the identification and estimation of systematic bias that would not otherwise be detected. It thus offers the possibility of correcting the proxy-based climate from these biases for a more accurate reconstruction. Beyond the findings of error sources for coral and mollusk-based reconstructions, our study demonstrates that numerical simulations based on Monte Carlo analyses are a simple and powerful approach to improve the proxy calibration process. A thourough understanding of the proxy record errors is essential for the interpretation of paleoclimate records from proxies derived from accretionary skeleton geochemistry. The error estimates provided by MoCo are much more comprehensive and therefore closer to reality than error estimates provided by typical calibration studies.

Description: A computational method for determining XBT depths Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1777-1802, 2011 Author(s): J. Stark, J. Gorman, M. Hennessey, F. Reseghetti, J. Willis, J. Lyman, and J. Abraham A new technique for determining the depth of expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) is developed. This new method combines a forward-stepping calculation which incorporates all of the forces on the XBT devices during their descent. Of particular note are drag forces which are calculated using a new drag coefficient expression. That expression, obtained entirely from computational fluid dynamic modeling, accounts for local variations in the ocean environment. Consequently, the method allows for accurate determination of depths for any local temperature environment. The results, which are entirely based on numerical simulation, are compared with an experimental descent of an LM-Sippican T-5 XBT. It is found that the calculated depths differ by less than 3 % from depth estimates using the industry standard FRE. Furthermore, the differences decrease with depth. The computational model allows an investigation of the fluid patterns along the outer surface of the probe as well as in the interior channel. The simulations take account of complex flow phenomena such as laminar-turbulent transition and flow separation.

Description: Internal and external variability in regional simulations of the Iberian Peninsula climate over the last millennium Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 2579-2607, 2011 Author(s): J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, P. Jiménez-Guerrero, S. Jerez, R. Lorente-Plazas, J. F. González-Rouco, and E. Zorita In this study we analyse the role of internal variability in regional climate simulations through a comparison of two regional paleoclimate simulations for the last millennium. They share the same external forcings and model configuration, differing only in the initial condition used to run the driving global model simulation. A comparison of these simulations allows us to study the role of internal variability in climate models at regional scales, and how it affects the long-term evolution of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. The results indicate that, although temperature is homogeneously sensitive to the effect of external forcings, the evolution of precipitation is more strongly governed by random and unpredictable internal dynamics. There are, however, some areas where the role of internal variability is lower than expected, allowing precipitation to respond to the external forcings, and we explore the underlying physical mechanisms responsible. We find that special attention should be paid when comparing the evolution of simulated precipitation with proxy reconstructions at regional scales. In particular, this study identifies areas, depending on the season, in which this comparison would be meaningful, but also other areas where good agreement between model simulations and reconstructions should not be expected even if both are perfect.

Description: Spring-summer temperatures reconstructed for northern Switzerland and south-western Germany from winter rye harvest dates, 1454–1970 Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 2609-2654, 2011 Author(s): O. Wetter and C. Pfister This paper presents a unique 517 yr long documentary data – based reconstruction of spring-summer (MAMJJ) temperatures for northern Switzerland and south western Germany from 1454 to 1970. It is composed of 25 partial series of winter grain (secale cereale) harvest starting dates (WGHD) that are in one part based on harvest related bookkeeping of institutions (hospitals, municipalities), in the other part to (early) phenological observations. The resulting main Basel WGHD series was homogenised with regard to dating style, data type and altitude. The calibration and verification approach was applied using the homogenous HISTALP temperature series from 1774–1824 for calibration ( r = 0,78) and from 1920–1970 for verification ( r = 0.75). The latter result even suffer from the weak data basis available for 1870–1950. Temperature reconstructions based on WGHD are more influenced by spring temperatures than those based on grape harvest dates (GHD), because rye in contrast to vines already begins to grow as soon as sunlight brings the plant to above freezing. The earliest and latest harvest dates were checked for consistency with narrative documentary weather reports. Comparisons with other European documentary-based GHD and WGHD temperature reconstructions generally reveal significant correlations decreasing with the distance from Switzerland. The new Basel WGHD series shows better skills in representing highly climate change sensitive variations of Swiss Alpine glaciers than available GHD series.

Description: Holocene evolution of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds in transient simulations with global climate models Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1797-1824, 2011 Author(s): V. Varma, M. Prange, U. Merkel, T. Kleinen, G. Lohmann, M. Pfeiffer, H. Renssen, A. Wagner, S. Wagner, and M. Schulz The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) have been suggested to exert a critical influence on global climate through wind-driven upwelling of deep water in the Southern Ocean and the potentially resulting atmospheric CO 2 variations. The investigation of the temporal and spatial evolution of the SWW along with forcings and feedbacks remains a significant challenge in climate research. In this study, the evolution of the SWW under orbital forcing from the mid-Holocene (7 kyr BP) to pre-industrial modern times (250 yr BP) is examined with transient experiments using the comprehensive coupled global climate model CCSM3. In addition, a model inter-comparison is carried out using orbitally forced Holocene transient simulations from four other coupled global climate models. Analyses and comparison of the model results suggest that the annual and seasonal mean SWW were subject to an overall strengthening and poleward shifting trend during the course of the mid-to-late Holocene under the influence of orbital forcing, except for the austral spring season, where the SWW exhibited an opposite trend of shifting towards the equator.

Description: A critical humidity threshold for monsoon transitions Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1737-1765, 2011 Author(s): J. Schewe, A. Levermann, and H. Cheng Monsoon systems around the world are governed by the so-called moisture-advection feedback. Here we show that, in a minimal conceptual model, this feedback implies a critical threshold with respect to the atmospheric specific humidity q o over the ocean adjacent to the monsoon region. If q o falls short of this critical value q o c , monsoon rainfall over land cannot be sustained. Such a case could occur if evaporation from the ocean was reduced, e.g. due to low sea surface temperatures. Within the restrictions of the conceptual model, we estimate q o c from present-day reanalysis data for four major monsoon systems, and demonstrate how this concept can help understand abrupt variations in monsoon strength on orbital timescales as found in proxy records.

Description: Glacial CO 2 cycle as a succession of key physical and biogeochemical processes Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1767-1795, 2011 Author(s): V. Brovkin, A. Ganopolski, D. Archer, and G. Munhoven During glacial-interglacial cycles, atmospheric CO 2 concentration varied by about 100 ppmv in amplitude. While testing mechanisms that had led to the low glacial CO 2 level could be done in equilibrium model experiments, an ultimate goal is to explain CO 2 changes in transient simulations through the complete glacial-interglacial cycle. A computationally efficient Earth System model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 is used to simulate global biogeochemistry over the last glacial cycle (126 kyr). The physical core of the model (atmosphere, ocean, land and ice sheets) is driven by orbital changes and reconstructed radiative forcing from greenhouses gases, ice, and aeolian dust. The carbon cycle model is able to reproduce the main features of the CO 2 changes: a 50 ppmv CO 2 drop during glacial inception, a minimum concentration at the last glacial maximum by 80 ppmv lower than the Holocene value, and an abrupt 60 ppmv CO 2 rise during the deglaciation. The model deep ocean δ 13 C also resembles reconstructions from deep-sea cores. The main drivers of atmospheric CO 2 evolve with time: changes in sea surface temperatures and in the volume of bottom water of southern origin controls atmospheric CO 2 during the glacial inception and deglaciation, while changes in carbonate chemistry and marine biology are dominant during the first and second parts of the glacial cycle, respectively. These feedback mechanisms could also significantly impact the ultimate climate response to the anthropogenic perturbation.

Description: Hydroclimate variability in the low-elevation Atacama Desert over the last 2500 years Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 3165-3202, 2011 Author(s): E. M. Gayo, C. Latorre, C. M. Santoro, A. Maldonado, and R. De Pol-Holz Paleoclimate reconstructions reveal that Earth system has experienced sub-millennial scale climate changes over the past two millennia in response to internal/external forcing. Although sub-millennial hydroclimate fluctuations have been detected in the central Andes during this interval, the timing, magnitude, extent and direction of change of these events remain poorly defined. Here, we present a reconstruction of hydroclimate variations on the Pacific slope of the central Andes based on exceptionally well-preserved plant macrofossils and associated archaeological remains from a hyperarid drainage (Quebrada Maní, ~21° S, 1000 m a.s.l.) in the Atacama Desert. During the late Holocene, riparian ecosystems and farming social groups flourished in the hyperarid Atacama core as surface water availability increased throughout this presently sterile landscape. Twenty-six radiocarbon dates indicate that these events occurred between 1050–680, 1615–1350 and 2500–2040 cal yr BP. Regional comparisons with rodent middens and other records suggest that these events were synchronous with pluvial stages detected at higher-elevations in the central Andes over the last 2500 years. These hydroclimate changes also coincide with periods of pronounced SST gradients in the Tropical Pacific (La Niña-like mode), conditions that are conducive to significantly increased rainfall in the central Andean highlands and flood events in the low-elevation watersheds at inter-annual timescales. Our findings indicate that the positive anomalies in the hyperarid Atacama over the past 2500 years represent a regional response of the central Andean climate system to changes in the global hydrological cycle at centennial timescales. Furthermore, our results provide support for the role of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient changes as the primary mechanism responsible for climate fluctuations in the central Andes. Finally, our results constitute independent evidence for comprehending the major trends in cultural evolution of prehistoric peoples that inhabited the region.

Description: Little ice age advance and retreat of Glaciar Jorge Montt, Chilean Patagonia, recorded in maps, air photographs and dendrochronology Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 3131-3164, 2011 Author(s): A. Rivera, M. Koppes, C. Bravo, and J. C. Aravena Glaciar Jorge Montt (48°20' S/73°30' W), one of the main tidewater glaciers of the Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI), has experienced the fastest frontal retreat observed in Patagonia during the past century, with a recession of 19.5 km between 1898 and 2011. This record retreat uncovered trees overridden during the Little Ice Age (LIA) advance of the glacier. Samples of these trees were dated using radiocarbon methods, yielding burial ages between 460 and 250 cal yr BP. The dendrochronology and maps indicate that Glaciar Jorge Montt was at its present position before the beginning of the LIA, in concert with several other glaciers in Southern Patagonia, and reached its maximum advance position between 1650 and 1750 AD. The post-LIA retreat is most likely triggered by climatically induced changes during the 20th century, however, Glaciar Jorge Montt has responded more dramatically than its neighbours. The retreat of Jorge Montt opened a new fjord 19.5 km long, and up to 391 m deep, with a varied bathymetry well correlated with glacier retreat rates, suggesting that dynamic responses of the glacier are at least partially connected to near buoyancy conditions at the ice front, resulting in high calving fluxes, accelerating thinning rates and rapid ice velocities.

Description: A multi-proxy perspective on millennium-long climate variability in the Southern Pyrenees Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 3049-3089, 2011 Author(s): M. Morellón, A. Pérez-Sanz, J. P. Corella, U. Büntgen, J. Catalán, P. González-Sampériz, J. J. González-Trueba, J. A. López-Sáez, A. Moreno, S. Pla, M. Á. Saz-Sánchez, P. Scussolini, E. Serrano, F. Steinhilber, V. Stefanova, T. Vegas-Vilarrúbia, and B. Valero-Garcés A review of selected, well-dated, multiproxy paleoclimatic records (lacustrine, dendrochronological, geomorphological) characterizes the main environmental changes occurred in the Southern Pyrenees during the last millennium. Warmer and relatively arid conditions prevailed during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA,

Description: A vertical-mode decomposition to investigate low-frequency internal motion across the Atlantic at 26° N Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 2047-2100, 2011 Author(s): Z. B. Szuts, J. R. Blundell, M. P. Chidichimo, and J. Marotzke Hydrographic data from full-depth moorings maintained by the RAPID/MOCHA project that span the Atlantic at 26° N are decomposed into vertical modes, in order to give a dynamical framework for interpreting the observed fluctuations. Vertical modes at each mooring are fit to pressure perturbations using a Gauss-Markov inversion. Away from boundaries, the vertical structure is almost entirely described by the first baroclinic mode, as confirmed by high correlation between the original signal and reconstructions using only the first baroclinic mode. These first baroclinic motions are also highly coherent with altimetric sea surface height (SSH). On both the western and eastern boundaries, however, the decomposition contains significant variance at higher modes, and there is a corresponding decrease in the agreement between SSH and either the original signal or the first baroclinic mode reconstruction. At the boundaries, the transport fluctuations described by the first baroclinic mode represent less than 10% of the variance of the full transport signal. At the eastern boundary, a linear combination of many baroclinic modes is required to explain the observed vertical density profile of the seasonal cycle, a result that is consistent with the oceanic response to wind-forcing not propagating far from the eastern boundary.

Description: Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 3091-3129, 2011 Author(s): S. B. Wilmes, C. C. Raible, and T. F. Stocker To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities regional reconstructions of the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.

Description: Persistent influence of ice sheet melting on high northern latitude climate during the early Last Interglacial Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 3239-3286, 2011 Author(s): A. Govin, P. Braconnot, E. Capron, E. Cortijo, J.-C. Duplessy, E. Jansen, L. Labeyrie, A. Landais, O. Marti, E. Michel, E. Mosquet, B. Risebrobakken, D. Swingedouw, and C. Waelbroeck Although the Last Interglacial (LIG) is often considered as a possible analogue for future climate in high latitudes, its precise climate evolution and associated causes remain uncertain. Here we compile high-resolution marine sediment records from the North Atlantic, Labrador Sea, Norwegian Sea and the Southern Ocean. We document a delay in the establishment of peak interglacial conditions in the North Atlantic, Labrador and Norwegian Seas as compared to the Southern Ocean. In particular, we observe a persistent iceberg melting at high northern latitudes at the beginning of the LIG. It suggests that the input of meltwater has maintained (1) colder and fresher surface-water conditions in the North Atlantic, Labrador and Norwegian Seas and (2) weaker ventilation of North Atlantic deep waters during the early LIG (129–125.5 ka) compared to the late LIG. Results from an ocean-atmosphere coupled model with insolation as a sole forcing for three key periods of the LIG show that insolation variations alone lead to warmer North Atlantic surface waters and stronger Atlantic overturning during the early LIG (126 ka) than the late LIG (122 ka). Hence insolation variations alone do not explain the delay in peak interglacial conditions observed at high northern latitudes. When freshwater input is interactively computed at 126 ka in response to the high boreal summer insolation, the model simulates colder, fresher North Atlantic surface waters and weaker Atlantic overturning during the early LIG (126 ka) compared to the late LIG (122 ka). This result indicates that both insolation variations and ice sheet melting have to be considered to reproduce the LIG climate evolution and supports our hypothesis that optimal thermal and deep ocean circulation conditions at high northern latitudes develop during the late LIG only, when the freshwater supply has already ceased.

Description: Element/Calcium ratios in middle Eocene samples of Oridorsalis umbonatus from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1209 Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 3795-3821, 2011 Author(s): C. F. Dawber and A. K. Tripati Culturing studies and empirical-based calibrations suggest that elemental ratios in benthic foraminifera can be used as proxies to reconstruct past variations in bottom water temperature and saturation state (Δ[CO 3 2− ]). However the mechanism(s) linking elemental ratios to Δ[CO 3 2− ] are poorly constrained. We present middle Eocene records of Oridorsalis umbonatus Li/Ca, B/Ca, Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1209. We apply calibrations developed from core top samples to estimate middle Eocene variations in intermediate water Δ[CO 3 2− ]. The fidelity of bottom water Δ[CO 3 2− ] reconstructions based on single element ratios are assessed by comparing the X /Ca-based reconstructions to each other and to carbon cycle proxy records (benthic foraminifera δ 13 C, organic carbon content, foraminifera dissolution indices), and a seawater δ 18 O reconstruction for Site 1209. Discrepancies in the reconstructed Δ[CO 3 2− ] values for the middle Eocene based on these different metal ratios suggests that there are still gaps in our understanding of the parameters influencing X /Ca. The downcore record of O. umbonatus Mg/Ca does not exhibit any similarities with the Li/Ca, B/Ca and Sr/Ca records, suggesting that bottom water Δ[CO 3 2− ] is not the dominant influence on Mg/Ca ratios for this species. This hypothesis is supported by the coefficients of multiple linear regression models on new and published Mg/Ca data.

Description: Changing climatic and anthropogenic influences on the Bermejo wetland, through archival documents – Mendoza, Argentina, 16th–20th centuries Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 3775-3794, 2011 Author(s): M. R. Prieto and F. Rojas The wrong management of watering in the highest zones of the Mendoza northern oasis, the topography of the terrain and the deficient drainage, together with neotectonics phenomena, but mostly a dramatic and progressive increase of the Rio Mendoza flow volume originated the expansion of the wetlands area at the NE of the city of Mendoza at the turn of the 18th century, while in previous centuries it had retracted to a minimum. The area grew until reaching the dimension of large wetlands in the lowest oasis zones, resulting from a larger runoff and soil saturation by the rise of the phreatic layers. This situation remained throughout the 19th century, affecting the extension and use of the available land for human activity. The purpose of this study was to research this process that culminated in 1930 with the partial desiccation of the area. We have given particular importance to the influence of the climatic fluctuations in the Cordillera de los Andes and to the consequent variations of the Rio Mendoza flow volume in this process. For the analysis we used snowfall series at the cordillera and flow volume of the Rio Mendoza, built by Prieto (2009) with documental data. We analyzed which were the mediate and immediate consequences of the growth and later desiccation of the wetlands over the environment and its present repercussion on the ecosystem (salinization, poor soil drainage, soil alkalinization, sedimentation). In addition, we have also worked over georeferenced historic charts that partially reflect the behavior of the Cienaga del Bermejo during the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries. This behavior characterized by "growth pulses" and retraction moments is reflected in the analyzed charts, where those moments of major growth coincide with cycles of bigger snowstorms and larger flow volume in the Rio Mendoza.

Description: Snow and weather climatic control on snow avalanche occurrence fluctuations over 50 yr in the French Alps Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 4173-4221, 2011 Author(s): H. Castebrunet, N. Eckert, and G. Giraud Snow avalanche activity is controlled to a large extent by snow and weather patterns. However, its response to climate fluctuations remains poorly documented. Previous studies have focused on direct extraction of trends in avalanche and winter climate data, and this study employs a time-implicit method to model annual avalanche activity in the French Alps during the 1958–2009 period from its most representative climatic drivers. Modeled snow and weather data for different elevations and aspects are considered as covariates that explain actual observed avalanche counts, modeled instability indexes, and a combination of both avalanche activity indicators. These three series present relatively similar fluctuations over the period and good consistency with historically harsh winters. A stepwise procedure is used to obtain regression models that accurately represent trends as well as high and low peaks with a small number of physically meaningful covariates, showing their climatic relevance. The activity indicators and their regression models seen as time series show, within a high interannual variability, a predominant bell-shaped pattern presumably related to a short period of colder and snowier winters around 1980, as well as a very slight but continuous increase between 1975 and 2000 concomitant with warming. Furthermore, the regression models quantify the respective weight of the different covariates, mostly temperature anomalies and south-facing snowpack characteristics to explain the trends and most of the exceptional winters. Regional differences are discussed as well as seasonal variations between winter and spring activity and confirm rather different snow and weather regimes influencing avalanche activity over the Northern and Southern Alps, depending on the season.

Description: Arctic Ocean circulation and variability – advection and external forcing encounter constraints and local processes Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 2313-2376, 2011 Author(s): B. Rudels The first hydrographic data from the Arctic Ocean, the section from the Laptev Sea to the passage between Greenland and Svalbard obtained by Nansen on the drift by Fram 1893–1896, aptly illustrate the main features of Arctic Ocean oceanography and indicate possible processes active in transforming the water masses in the Arctic Ocean. Many, perhaps most, of these processes were identified already by Nansen, who put his mark on almost all subsequent research in the Arctic Ocean. Here we shall revisit some key questions and follow how our understanding has evolved from the early 20th century to present. What questions, if any, can now be regarded as solved and which remain still open? Five different but connected topics will be discussed: (1) The low salinity surface layer and the storage and export of freshwater. (2) The vertical heat transfer from the Atlantic water to sea ice and to the atmosphere. (3) The circulation and mixing of the two Atlantic inflow branches. (4) The formation and circulation of deep and bottom waters in the Arctic Ocean. (5) The exchanges through Fram Strait. Foci will be on the potential effects of increased freshwater input and reduced sea ice export on the freshwater storage and residence time in the Arctic Ocean, on the deep waters of the Makarov Basin and on the circulation and relative importance of the two inflows, over the Barents Sea and through Fram Strait, for the distribution of heat in the intermediate layers of the Arctic Ocean.

Description: Hydrological evidence for a North Atlantic oscillation during the Little Ice Age outside its range observed since 1850 Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 4149-4171, 2011 Author(s): C. Martín-Puertas, I. Dorado-Liñán, A. Brauer, E. Zorita, B. L. Valero-Garcés, and E. Gutierrez An annual-resolved precipitation reconstruction for the last 800 yr in Southern Spain has been performed using stable carbon isotope (δ 13 C) of Pinus nigra tree rings. The reconstruction exhibits high- to low-frequency variability and distinguishes a Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1350–1850) characterized by lower averaged rainfall than both in the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the LIA and in the 20th century. The driest conditions are recorded during the Maunder solar Minimum (mid 17th–early 18th centuries), in good agreement with the Spanish documentary archive. Similar linkage between solar activity (maximum/minimum) and precipitation (increase/decrease) is observed throughout the entire LIA. Additionally, the relationship between the hydrological pattern in the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco during the LIA suggests different spatial distribution of precipitation in the south-eastern sector of the North Atlantic region such as it is known currently. Whereas in the instrumental record the precipitation evolves similarly in both regions and opposite to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) index, the coldest periods of the LIA shows a contrasting pattern with drier conditions in the South of Spain and wetter in Northern Africa. We suggest an extreme negative NAO conditions, accompanied by a southward excursion of the winter rainfall band beyond that observed in the last century, can explain this contrast. The sustained NAO conditions could have been triggered by solar minima and higher volcanic activity during the LIA.

Description: The relative roles of CO 2 and palaeogeography in determining Late Miocene climate: results from a terrestrial model-data comparison Climate of the Past Discussions, 8, 715-786, 2012 Author(s): C. D. Bradshaw, D. J. Lunt, R. Flecker, U. Salzmann, M. J. Pound, A. M. Haywood, and J. T. Eronen The Late Miocene (∼11.6–5.3 Ma) palaeorecord provides evidence for a warmer and wetter climate than that of today and there is uncertainty in the palaeo-CO 2 record of at least 150 ppmv. We present results from fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation simulations for the Late Miocene that examine the relative roles of palaeogeography (topography and ice sheet geometry) and CO 2 concentration in the determination of Late Miocene climate through comprehensive terrestrial model-data comparisons. Assuming that the data accurately reflects the Late Miocene climate, and that the Late Miocene palaeogeographic reconstruction used in the model is robust, then results indicate that the proxy-derived precipitation differences between the Late Miocene and modern can be largely accounted for by the palaeogeographic changes alone. However, the proxy-derived temperatures differences between the Late Miocene and modern can only begin to be accounted for if we assume a palaeo-CO 2 concentration towards the higher end of the range of estimates.

Description: Changes in the strength and width of the Hadley circulation since 1871 Climate of the Past Discussions, 8, 695-713, 2012 Author(s): J. Liu, M. Song, Y. Hu, and X. Ren Recent studies demonstrate that the Hadley Circulation has intensified and expanded for the past three decades, which has important implications for subtropical societies and may lead to profound changes in global climate. However, the robustness of this intensification and expansion that should be considered when interpreting long-term changes of the Hadley Circulation is still matters of debate. It also remains largely unknown how the Hadley Circulation has evolved over longer periods. Here we present long-term variability of the Hadley Circulation using the 20th Century Reanalysis. It shows a slight strengthening and widening of the Hadley Circulation since the late 1970s, which is not inconsistent with recent assessments. However, over centennial timescales (1871–2008), the Hadley Circulation shows a tendency towards more intense and narrower state. More importantly, the width of the Hadley Circulation has not yet completed a life-cycle since 1871. The strength and width of the Hadley Circulation during the late 19th and early 20th century show strong natural variability, exceeding variability that coincides with global warming in recent decades. These findings raise the question that the recent change of the Hadley Circulation is primarily attributed to greenhouse warming or a long-period oscillation of the Hadley Circulation substantially longer than that observed in previous studies.

Description: Millennial-length forward models and pseudoproxies of stalagmite δ 18 O: an example from NW Scotland Climate of the Past Discussions, 8, 869-907, 2012 Author(s): A. Baker, C. Bradley, S. J. Phipps, M. Fischer, I. J. Fairchild, L. Fuller, C. Spötl, and C. Azcurra The stable oxygen isotope parameter δ 18 O remains the most widely utilised speleothem proxy for past climate reconstructions. Uncertainty can be introduced into stalagmite δ 18 O from a number of factors, one of which is the heterogeneity of groundwater flow in karstified aquifers. Here, we present a lumped parameter hydrological model, KarstFor, which is capable of generating monthly simulations of surface water – ground water – stalagmite δ 18 O for more than thousand year time periods. Using a variety of climate input series, we use this model for the first time to compare observational with modelled (pseudoproxy) stalagmite δ 18 O series for a site at Assynt, NW Scotland, where our knowledge of δ 18 O systematics is relatively well understood. The use of forward modelling allows us to quantify the relative contributions of climate, peat and karst hydrology, and disequilibrium effects in stalagmite δ 18 O, from which we can identify potential stalagmite δ 18 O responses to climate variability. Comparison of the modelled and actual stalagmite δ 18 O for two stalagmites from the site demonstrates that for the period of overlapping growth, the two series do not correlate with one another, but forward modelling demonstrates that this falls within the range explicable by differences in flow routing to the stalagmites. Pseudoproxy δ 18 O stalagmite series highlight the potential significance of peat hydrology in controlling stalagmite δ 18 O over the last 1000 years at this site.

Description: Reconstruction of high resolution atmospheric fields for Northern Europe using analog-upscaling Climate of the Past Discussions, 8, 819-868, 2012 Author(s): F. Schenk and E. Zorita The analog method (AM) has found application to reconstruct gridded climate fields from the information provided by proxy data and climate model simulations. Here, we test the skill of different set-ups of the AM, in a controlled but realistic situation, by analysing several statistical properties of reconstructed daily high-resolution atmospheric fields for Northern Europe for a 50-year period. In this application, station observations of sea-level pressure and air temperature are combined with atmospheric fields from a 50-year high-resolution regional climate simulation. This reconstruction aims at providing homogeneous and physically consistent atmospheric fields with daily resolution suitable to drive high resolution ocean and ecosystem models. Different settings of the AM are evaluated in this study for the period 1958-2007 to estimate the robustness of the reconstruction and its ability to replicate high and low-frequent variability, realistic probability distributions and extremes of different meteorological variables. It is shown that the AM can realistically reconstruct variables with a strong physical link to daily sea-level pressure on daily and monthly scale. However, to reconstruct low-frequency decadal and longer temperature variations, additional monthly mean station temperature as predictor is required. Our results suggest that the AM is a suitable upscaling tool to predict daily fields taken from regional climate simulations based on sparse historical station data. After this testing and characterization of the different set-ups the method will be applied to reconstruct the high-resolution atmospheric fields for the last 160 years.

Description: Madagascar corals reveal Pacific multidecadal modulation of rainfall since 1708 Climate of the Past Discussions, 8, 787-817, 2012 Author(s): C. A. Grove, J. Zinke, F. Peeters, W. Park, T. Scheufen, S. Kasper, B. Randriamanantsoa, M. T. McCulloch, and G.-J. A. Brummer The Pacific Ocean modulates Australian and North American rainfall variability on multidecadal timescales, in concert with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). It has been suggested that Pacific decadal variability may also influence Indian Ocean surface temperature and rainfall in a far-field response, similar to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on interannual timescales. However, instrumental records of rainfall are too short and too sparse to confidently assess such multidecadal climatic teleconnections. Here, we present four climate archives spanning the past 300 yr from giant Madagascar corals. We decouple 20th century human deforestation effects from rainfall induced soil erosion using spectral luminescence scanning and geochemistry. The corals provide the first evidence for Pacific decadal modulation of rainfall over the Western Indian Ocean. We find that positive PDO phases are associated with increased Indian Ocean temperatures and rainfall in Eastern Madagascar, while precipitation in Southern Africa and Eastern Australia declines. Consequently, the negative PDO phase that started in 1998 should lead to reduced rainfall over Eastern Madagascar and increased precipitation in Southern Africa and Eastern Australia. We conclude that the PDO has important implications for future multidecadal variability of African rainfall, where water resource management is increasingly important under the warming climate.

Description: Assessment of a physical-biogeochemical coupled model system for operational service in the Baltic Sea Ocean Science Discussions, 9, 835-876, 2012 Author(s): Z. Wan, J. She, M. Maar, L. Jonasson, and J. Baasch-Larsen Thanks to the abundant observation data, we are able to deploy the traditional point-to-point comparison and statistical measures in combination with a comprehensive model validation scheme to assess the skills of the biogeochemical model ERGOM in providing an operational service for the Baltic Sea. The model assessment concludes that the operational products can resolve the main observed seasonal features for phytoplankton biomass, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, dissolved inorganic phosphorus and dissolved oxygen in euphotic layers, as well as their vertical profiles. This assessment reflects that the model errors of the operational system at the current stage are mainly caused by insufficient light penetration, excessive organic particle export downward, insufficient regional adaptation and some of improper initialization. This study highlights the importance of applying multiple schemes in order to assess model skills rigidly and identify main causes for major model errors.

Description: Numerical tools to estimate the flux of a gas across the air-water interface and assess the heterogeny of its forcing functions Ocean Science Discussions, 9, 909-975, 2012 Author(s): V. M. N. de C. da S. Vieira A numerical tool was developed for the estimation of gas fluxes across the air water interface. The primary objective is to use it to estimate CO 2 fluxes. Nevertheless application to other gases is easily accomplished by changing the values of the parameters related to the physical properties of the gases. A user friendly software was developed allowing to build upon a standard kernel a custom made gas flux model with the preferred parametrizations. These include single or double layer models; several numerical schemes for the effects of wind in the air-side and water-side transfer velocities; the effect of turbulence from current drag with the bottom; and the effects on solubility of water temperature, salinity, air temperature and pressure. It was also developed an analysis which decomposes the difference between the fluxes in a reference situation and in alternative situations into its several forcing functions. This analysis relies on the Taylor expansion of the gas flux model, requiring the numerical estimation of partial derivatives by a multivariate version of the collocation polynomial. Both the flux model and the difference decomposition analysis were tested with data taken from surveys done in the lagoonary system of Ria Formosa, south Portugal, in which the CO 2 fluxes were estimated using the IRGA and floating chamber method whereas the CO 2 concentrations were estimated using the IRGA and degasification chamber. Observations and estimations show a remarkable fit.

Description: Arctic surface temperatures from Metop AVHRR compared to in situ ocean and land data Ocean Science Discussions, 9, 1009-1043, 2012 Author(s): G. Dybkjær, R. Tonboe, and J. Høyer The ice surface temperature (IST) is an important boundary condition for both atmospheric and ocean and sea ice models and for coupled systems. An operational ice surface temperature product using satellite Metop AVHRR infra-red data was developed for MyOcean. The IST can be mapped in clear sky regions using a split window algorithm specially tuned for sea ice. Clear sky conditions are prevailing during spring in the Arctic while persistent cloud cover limits data coverage during summer. The cloud covered regions are detected using the EUMETSAT cloud mask. The Metop IST compares to 2 m temperature at the Greenland ice cap Summit within STD error of 3.14 °C and to Arctic drifting buoy temperature data within STD error of 3.69 °C. A case study reveal that the in situ radiometer data versus satellite IST STD error can be much lower (0.73 °C) and that the different in situ measures complicates the validation. Differences and variability between Metop IST and in situ data are analysed and discussed. An inter-comparison of Metop IST, numerical weather prediction temperatures and in situ observation indicates large biases between the different quantities. Because of the scarcity of conventional surface temperature or surface air temperature data in the Arctic the satellite IST data with its relatively good coverage can potentially add valuable information to model analysis for the Arctic atmosphere.

Description: Towards high resolution mapping of 3-D mesoscale dynamics from observations: preliminary comparison of retrieval techniques and models within MESCLA project Ocean Science Discussions, 9, 1045-1083, 2012 Author(s): B. Buongiorno Nardelli, S. Guinehut, A. Pascual, Y. Drillet, S. Ruiz, and S. Mulet Within the MyOcean R&D project MESCLA (MEsoSCale dynamical Analysis through combined model, satellite and in situ data), different estimates of the vertical velocities derived from observations have been compared. Two main approaches have been considered, one based on the retrieval of 3-D fields from the observations alone and one based on the analyses provided by MyOcean MERCATOR models. The motivation for this double approach is that, while data assimilation in numerical models is crucial to obtain more accurate analyses and forecasts, its results might be significantly influenced by specific model configurations (e.g. forcing, parameterization of smaller scale processes and spatial resolution). On the other hand, the purely observation-based approach is limited by the underlying assumptions of simplified dynamical models and by the relatively low resolution of present products. MESCLA tested innovative methods for the high resolution mapping of 3-D mesoscale dynamics from observations, developing new products that might be used to gradually build the next generations of operational observation-based products.

Description: On the Shelf Resonances of the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Arafura Sea Ocean Science Discussions, 9, 443-497, 2012 Author(s): D. J. Webb A numerical model is used to investigate the resonances of the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Arafura Sea. The model is forced at the shelf edge, first with physically realistic real values of angular velocity. The response functions at points within the region show maxima and other behaviour which imply that resonances are involved but it is difficult to be more specific. The study is then extended to complex angular velocities and the results then show a clear pattern of gravity wave and Rossby wave like resonances. The properties of the resonances are investigated and used to reinterpret the responses at real values of angular velocity. It is found that in some regions the response is dominated by modes trapped between the shelf edge and the coast or between opposing coastlines. In other regions the resonances show cooperative behaviour, possibly indicating the importance of other physical processes.

Description: Detailed insight into Arctic climatic variability during MIS 11 at Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Russia Climate of the Past Discussions, 8, 6309-6339, 2012 Author(s): H. Vogel, C. Meyer-Jacob, M. Melles, J. Brigham-Grette, A. A. Andreev, V. Wennrich, and P. Rosén Here we present a detailed multiproxy record of the climate and environmental evolution at Lake El'gygytgyn/Far East Russian Arctic during the period 430–395 ka covering the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 12/11 transition and the thermal maximum of super interglacial MIS 11. The MIS 12/11 transition at Lake El'gygytgyn is characterized by initial warming followed by a cold reversal implying similarities to the Bølling/Allerød (B/A) to Younger Dryas (YD) pattern of the last deglaciation. Full and remarkably stable interglacial conditions with mean temperatures of warmest month (MTWM) ranging between ca. 10–15 °C, annual precipitation (PANN) ranging between ca. 300–600 mm, strong in-lake productivity, coincide with dark coniferous forests in the catchment, annual disintegration of the lake ice cover and full mixis of the water column. Such conditions persisted for ca. 27 kyrs between ca. 425–398 ka. The Lake El'gygytgyn record closely resembles the climate pattern recorded in Lake Baikal (SE Siberia) sediments and Antarctic ice cores implying strong teleconnections between Northern and Southern Hemispheres during MIS 11. A peak warm period between ca. 418–415.5 ka and a precipitation anomaly at ca. 401 ka at Lake El'gygytgyn, in contrast, appear to be an expression of more regionally confined climate variations.

Description: NEMO on the shelf: assessment of the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland configuration Ocean Science Discussions, 10, 83-151, 2013 Author(s): C. Maraldi, J. Chanut, B. Levier, N. Ayoub, P. De Mey, G. Reffray, F. Lyard, S. Cailleau, M. Drévillon, E. A. Fanjul, M. G. Sotillo, and P. Marsaleix The Iberia-Biscay-Ireland (IBI) system serves one of the 7 MyOcean "Monitoring and Forecasting Centres". A high resolution simulation covering the IBI region is set-up over July 2007–February 2009. The NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) model is used with a 1/36° horizontal resolution and 50 z-levels in the vertical. New developments have been incorporated in NEMO to make it suitable to open- as well as coastal-ocean modelling. In this paper, we pursue three main objectives: (1) give an overview of the model configuration used for the simulations; (2) give a broad-brush account of one particular aspect of this work, namely consistency verification; this type of validation is conducted upstream of the implementation of the system before it is used for production and routinely validated; it is meant to guide model development in identifying gross deficiencies in the modelling of several key physical processes; (3) show that such a regional modelling system has potential as a complement to patchy observations (an integrated approach) to give information on non-observed physical quantities and to provide links between observations by identifying broader-scale patterns and processes. We concentrate on the year 2008. We first provide domain-wide consistency verification results in terms of barotropic tides, transports, sea surface temperature and stratification. We then focus on two dynamical sub-regions: the Celtic shelves and the Bay of Biscay slope and deep regions. The model-data consistency is checked for variables and processes such as tidal currents, tidal fronts, internal tides, residual elevation. We also examine the representation in the model of a seasonal pattern of the Bay of Biscay circulation: the warm extension of the Iberian Poleward Current along the northern Spanish coast (Navidad event) in winter 2007–2008.

Description: Vegetation responses to interglacial warming in the Arctic, examples from Lake El'gygytgyn, northeast Siberia Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 245-267, 2013 Author(s): A. V. Lozhkin and P. M. Anderson Palynological data from Lake El'gygytgyn reveal responses of plant communities to a range of climatic conditions that can help assess the possible impact of global warming on arctoboreal ecosystems. Vegetation associated with climatic optima suggests two types of interglacial responses: one is dominated by deciduous taxa (the postglacial thermal maximum (PGTM) and marine isotope stage (MIS5)) and the second by evergreen conifers (MIS11, MIS31). The MIS11 forests show a similarity to Picea-Larix-Betula-Alnus forests of Siberia. While dark coniferous forest also characterizes MIS31, the pollen taxa show an affinity to the modern boreal forest of the lower Amur valley in the Russian Far East. Despite vegetation differences during the thermal maxima, all four glacial-interglacial transitions are alike, being dominated by deciduous woody taxa. Initially Betula shrub tundra established and was replaced by tundra with tree-sized shrubs (PGTM), Betula woodland (MIS5), or Betula-Larix (MIS11, MIS31) forest. The consistent occurrence of deciduous forest and/or high shrub tundra in all interglaciations as they approach or achieve maximum warmth underscores the significance of this biome for modeling efforts. The El'gygytgyn data also suggest the possible elimination or massive reduction of arctic plant communities under extreme warm-earth scenarios.

Description: The effect of precipitation seasonality on Eemian ice core isotope records from Greenland Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 269-296, 2013 Author(s): W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, E. van Meijgaard, and F. Kaspar The previous interglacial (Eemian, 130–114 kyr BP) had a mean sea level highstand 4 to 7 m above the current level, and, according to climate proxies, a 2 to 6 K warmer Arctic summer climate. Greenland ice cores extending back into the Eemian show a reduced depletion in δ 18 O of about 3‰ for this period, which suggests a significant warming of several degrees over the Greenland ice sheet. Since the depletion in δ 18 O depends, among other factors, on the condensation temperature of the precipitation, we analyze climatological processes other than mean temperature changes that influence condensation temperature, using output of the regional climate model RACMO2. This model is driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHO-G GCM boundaries for present-day, preindustrial and Eemian climate. The processes that affect the condensation temperature of the precipitation are analyzed using 6-hourly model output. Our results show that changes in precipitation seasonality can cause significant changes of up to 2 K in the condensation temperature that are unrelated to changes in mean temperature.

Description: Why could ice ages be unpredictable? Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 1053-1098, 2013 Author(s): M. Crucifix It is commonly accepted that the variations of Earth's orbit and obliquity control the timing of Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. Evidence comes from power spectrum analysis of palaeoclimate records and from inspection of the timing of glacial and deglacial transitions. However, we do not know how tight this control is. Is it, for example, conceivable that random climatic fluctuations could cause a delay in deglaciation, bad enough to skip a full precession or obliquity cycle and subsequently modify the sequence of ice ages? To address this question, seven previously published conceptual models of ice ages are analysed by reference to the notion of generalised synchronisation. Insight is being gained by comparing the effects of the astronomical forcing with idealised forcings composed of only one or two periodic components. In general, the richness of the astronomical forcing allows for synchronisation over a wider range of parameters, compared to periodic forcing. Hence, glacial cycles may conceivably have remained paced by the astronomical forcing throughout the Pleistocene. However, all the models examined here also show a range of parameters for which the structural stability of the ice age dynamics is weak. This means that small variations in parameters or random fluctuations may cause significant shifts in the succession of ice ages if the system were effectively in that parameter range. Whether or not the system has strong structural stability depends on the amplitude of the effects associated with the astronomical forcing, which significantly differ across the different models studied here. The possibility of synchronisation on eccentricity is also discussed and it is shown that a high Rayleigh number on eccentricity, as recently found in observations, is no guarantee of reliable synchronisation.