ALBERT

Description:    Natural hazard assessments are always subject to uncertainties due to missing knowledge about the complexity of hazardous processes as well as their natural variability. Decision-makers in the field of natural hazard management need to understand the concept, components, sources, and implications of existing uncertainties in order to reach informed and transparent decisions. Until now, however, only few hazard maps include uncertainty visualizations which would be much needed for an enhanced communication among experts and decision-makers in order to make informed decisions possible. In this paper, an analysis of how uncertainty is currently treated and communicated by Swiss natural hazards experts is presented. The conducted expert survey confirmed that the communication of uncertainty has to be enhanced, possibly with the help of uncertainty visualizations. However, in order to visualize the spatial characteristics of uncertainty, existing uncertainties need to be quantified. This challenge is addressed by the exemplary simulation of a snow avalanche event using a deterministic model and quantified uncertainties with a sensitivity analysis. Suitable visualization methods for the resulting spatial variability of the uncertainties are suggested, and the advantages and disadvantages of their implementation in an interactive cartographic information system are discussed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9864-y Authors Melanie Kunz, Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems, Institute for Spatial and Landscape Planning, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland Lorenz Hurni, Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The present work addresses the problem of lack of coordination between policies and actors with joint competence for risk management, i.e., civil protection, spatial planning, and sectoral planning (e.g., forest policy in the case of forest fire risk). Spatial planning in particular is assigned a minor or no role at all though it might perfectly operate as the coordinating policy platform; the reason is that spatially relevant analysis and policy guidance is an omnipresent component of the risk management cycle. However, disconnected risk relevant policies turning a blind eye to spatial planning might cause several adverse repercussions: Breaks in the response-preparedness-prevention-remediation chain (which should function as a continuum), minimal attention to prevention, risk expansion and growth instead of mitigation, lack of synergies between involved actors as well as duplicated or even diverging measures and funding. The authors bear witness to the above suggestions by examining three cases of European (regional and local) risk management systems faced with failures when confronting natural hazards (floods and forest fires). These three systems are embedded in different types of political-administrative structures, namely those of the city of Dortmund (Germany) facing floods, Eastern Attica region (Greece), and Lazio Region (Italy) facing forest fires. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-30 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9843-3 Authors Kalliopi Sapountzaki, Department of Geography, Harokopio University of Athens, Athens, Greece Sylvia Wanczura, Institute of Fire Service and Rescue Technologies, Fire Department of Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany Gabriella Casertano, Regione Lazio, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Rome, Italy Stefan Greiving, Technical University of Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany Gavriil Xanthopoulos, National Agricultural Research Foundation, Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems and Forest Products Technology, Athens, Greece Floriana F. Ferrara, T6 Ecosystems srl, Rome, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    A practical, DEM-based practical method is proposed to enhance flood risk management in fluvial areas by quantifying relative risk as a function of vulnerability to inland and evacuation difficulty. Both measures are based mainly on the topography of the region, so the method does not require detailed data on the physical characteristics of the land. First, we use the deterministic 8-node method on a digital elevation map (DEM) to trace storm waterways. Second, we repeat the process on a reversed DEM to trace evacuation routes that avoid the waterways and zones dangerously close to the rivers. Finally, on the basis of such two flow lines of evacuee and storm water, we proposed the protocol to evaluate the flood risk at every point on the map taking into account both the minimum time required for floodwater to arrive and duration of an evacuation from that location. The time that must be allocated for safe evacuation is defined as the potential flood risk of evacuation (PFRE). The method is demonstrated on a fluvial area of the Kaki River in Nagaoka city, Japan. In addition, we illustrated the application of the PFRE map to divide the region into areas of greater or lesser evacuation urgency. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9852-2 Authors Jinyoung Kim, Department of Urban Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 113-8656 Japan Yuji Kuwahara, Ibaraki University, Ibaraki, Japan Manish Kumar, Tezpur University, Napaam, Assam 784 028, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Earthquake-induced landslides can cause a large number of casualties and great economic loss. Presently, research methods for studying landslides are largely based on a framework of solid mechanics. In this work, visualization software, known as Visual SPH, is developed in Visual Basic 6.0, and can be used to analyze the fluidized movement of landslides based on smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH). First, the accuracy of the software is verified through simulating a benchmark problem of a dam-break. Then, fluidized movement analysis of the Tangjiashan landslide is carried out using this software. The simulation derives plots of displacement versus time, reproduces the entire flow process of the Tangjiashan landslide, and determines the run-out, which coincides exactly with the characteristics of flow-like landslides observed in the field. All of these are essential in the design of supporting structures and site selection for reconstruction in earthquake-prone regions. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9859-8 Authors Yu Huang, Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Zili Dai, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, 200092 Shanghai, China Weijie Zhang, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, 200092 Shanghai, China Zhiyi Chen, Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Marine overwash from the north a few centuries ago transported hundreds of angular cobbles and boulders tens to hundreds of meters southward from limestone outcrops in the interior of Anegada, 140 km east–northeast of Puerto Rico. We examined two of several cobble and boulder fields as part of an effort to interpret whether the overwash resulted from a tsunami or a storm in a location where both events are known to occur. One of the cobble and boulder field extends 200 m southward from limestone outcrops that are 300 m inland from the island’s north shore. The other field extends 100 m southward from a limestone knoll located 800 m from the nearest shore. In the two fields, we measured the size, orientation, and spatial distribution of a total of 161 clasts and determined their stratigraphic positions with respect to an overwash sand and shell sheet deposit. In both fields, we found the spacing between clasts increased southward and that clast long-axis orientations are consistent with a transport trending north–south. Almost half the clasts are partially buried in a landward thinning and fining overwash sand and none were found embedded in the shelly mud of a pre-overwash marine pond. The two cobble and boulder fields resemble modern tsunami deposits in which dispersed clasts extend inland as a single layer. The fields contrast with coarse clast storm deposits that often form wedge-shaped shore-parallel ridges. These comparisons suggest that the overwash resulted from a tsunami and not from a storm. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9848-y Authors Steve Watt, U.S. Geological Survey, 400 Natural Bridges Drive, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA Mark Buckley, U.S. Geological Survey, 400 Natural Bridges Drive, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA Bruce Jaffe, U.S. Geological Survey, 400 Natural Bridges Drive, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Improvements in hurricane forecasts allowing for more timely evacuations from storm-surge zones are credited with reducing lethality of US landfalling hurricanes. The deadly reach of a hurricane, however, is not limited to storm-surge zones. About 80% of direct US hurricane fatalities since 1970 occurred outside of landfall counties, with most of these fatalities caused by inland flooding. We construct a geographic information system database combining the location and cause of fatalities, estimated wind speeds, and rainfall amounts for the entire track of the storm for landfalling US hurricanes between 1970 and 2007. We analyze the determinants of total fatalities and deaths due to freshwater drowning and wind. Inclusion of inland fatalities results in no downward trend in lethality over the period, in contrast to prior research. Local storm conditions significantly affect lethality, as one-inch and one-knot increases in rainfall and wind increase total fatalities by 28 and 4%. Rainfall significantly increases freshwater-drowning deaths and is insignificant for wind deaths, while the opposite relation holds for wind speed. While coastal counties do not exhibit a significantly higher amount of lethality risk versus inland counties for total or wind-driven fatalities, freshwater-drowning fatalities occur most frequently in inland counties along the center of the storm path and its outer county tiers as we have defined them. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9849-x Authors Jeffrey Czajkowski, Department of Economics, Austin College, Sherman, TX, USA Kevin Simmons, Department of Economics, Austin College, Sherman, TX, USA Daniel Sutter, Department of Economics and Finance, University of Texas - Pan American, Edinburg, TX, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This study explored demographic variations among victims injured in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The study analyzed records of 2,148 patients who were hospitalized with earthquake-related injuries in 14 hospitals between May 12 and May 21 of 2008. We tested the effects of gender and age on the incidence of fractures and amputations. Although more women than men were hospitalized as earthquake victims, the results indicated that a higher incidence of pelvic fracture in women was the only statistically significant injury with regard to gender. Age had a more complex effect on the rate and pattern of fractures. Children younger than 15 years old were the most likely to sustain skull fractures and amputations. The elderly were the most likely to be associated with limb fractures. Adult men were the most likely to suffer spine fractures and adult women rib fractures. The paper concludes with an interpretation of the results in the context of China’s rural conditions and discusses implications for post-disaster emergency operations and planning. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9836-2 Authors Ying Cao, College of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, No. 24 South Section 1, Yihuan Road, Chengdu, 610065 China Nabil Kamel, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Coor Hall, 975 S. Myrtle Ave., Fifth Floor, P.O. Box 875302, Tempe, AZ 85287-5302, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Following the catastrophic and devastating Atlantic Hurricane seasons in 2004 and 2005, there has been increased interest in formulating planning directives and policy aimed at minimizing the societal impacts of future storms. Not all populations will evacuate an area forecast to be affected by a hurricane, so emergency managers must plan for these people who remain behind. Such planning includes making food, water, ice, and other provisions available at strategic locations throughout an affected area. Recent research has tackled problems related to humanitarian and relief goods distribution with respect to hurricanes. Experience shows that the torrential rains and heavy winds associated with hurricanes can severely damage transportation network infrastructure rendering it unusable. Scanning the literature on hurricane disaster relief provision, there are no studies that expressly consider the potential damage that may be caused to a transportation network by strong storms. This paper examines the impacts of simulated network failures on hurricane disaster relief planning strategies, using a smaller Florida City as an example. A relief distribution protocol is assumed where goods distribution points are set up in pre-determined locations following the passage of a storm. Simulation results reveal that modest disruptions to the transportation network produce marked changes in the number and spatial configuration of relief facilities. At the same time, the transportation network appears to be robust and is able to support relief service provision even at elevated levels of hypothesized disruption. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9855-z Authors Mark W. Horner, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA Michael J. Widener, University at Buffalo, 105 Wilkeson Quad, Buffalo, NY 14261-0001, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Although the risk of flooding poses a serious threat to the Dutch public, citizens are not very inclined to engage in self-protective behaviors. Current risk communication tries to enhance these self-protective behaviors among citizens, but is nonetheless not very successful. The level of citizens engaging in self-protective actions remains rather low. Therefore, this research strives to determine the factors that might enhance or lessen the intention to engage in self-protection among citizens. The study was a 2 (flood risk: high vs low) × 2 (efficacy beliefs: high vs low) between subject experiment. It was conducted to test how varying levels of flood risk and efficacy beliefs influence two different self-protective behaviors, namely information seeking and the intention to engage in risk mitigating or preventive behaviors. Furthermore, the relationship between information seeking and the intention to take self-protective actions was discussed. Results showed that high levels of flood risk lead to higher levels of both information seeking and the intention to engage in self-protective behaviors than low levels of flood risk. For efficacy beliefs, the same trend occurred. Also, results showed that information seeking seems to coincide with the intention to take preventive actions and acted as a mediator between the levels of perceived risk and efficacy and the intention to take self-protective actions. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9845-1 Authors Milou Kievik, Saxion, University for Applied Sciences, PO Box 70.000, 7500 KB Enschede, The Netherlands Jan M. Gutteling, University of Twente, PO Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Much progress has been made in the area of tropical cyclone prediction using high-resolution mesoscale models based on community models developed at National Centers for Environmental Predication (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). While most of these model research and development activities are focused on predicting hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific domains, there has been much interest in using these models for tropical cyclone prediction in the North Indian Ocean region, particularly for Bay of Bengal storms that are known historically causing severe damage to life and property. In this study, the advanced operational hurricane modeling system developed at NCEP, known as the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model, is used to simulate two recent Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones—Nargis of November 2007 and Sidr of April 2008. The advanced NCEP operational vortex initialization procedure is adapted for simulating these Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones. Two additional regional models, the NCAR Advanced Research WRF and NCAR/Penn State University Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) are also used in simulating these storms. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over other models in predicting the Bay of Bengal cyclones. These results also suggest the need for a sophisticated vortex initialization procedure in conjunction with a model designed exclusively for tropical cyclone prediction for operational considerations. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9839-z Authors D. V. Bhaskar Rao, TLGVRC, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS 39217, USA Vijay Tallapragada, NCEP/EMC, 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Landslides interacting with large infrastructures represent a major problem for the economy, society as a whole, and the safety of workers. Continuous monitoring for 23 months using an integrated platform with a ground-based SAR interferometer (GB-InSAR), a weather station, and an automatic camera gave us the opportunity to analyze the response of an unstable slope to the different phases of work. The deformational behavior of both the natural slope and the man-made structures was recorded and interpreted in relation to the working stages and the rainfall conditions during the whole monitoring period. A typical pattern of displacement was identified for shallow landslides, debris produced by the excavation and gabions, metallic walls, and anchored bulkheads. Furthermore, insights into the dynamics and behavior of the slope and the man-made structures that interact with the landslide were obtained. Extreme rainfall is the main trigger of shallow landslides and gabion deformations, while anchored bulkheads are less influenced by rainfalls. Movement of debris that is produced by excavations and temporary metallic barrier deformation are closely related to each other. The herein proposed monitoring platform is very efficient in monitoring unstable slopes that are affected by human activities. Moreover, the recorded patterns of displacement in the slope and the man-made structures can be used as reference data for similar studies and engineering designs. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9840-6 Authors Francesca Bozzano, CERI, Research Centre on Prevention, Prediction and Control of Geological Risks, P.zza U. Pilozzi 9, 00038 Valmontone, Italy Ivan Cipriani, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, “Sapienza” Università di Roma, P.le Aldo Moro 5, 00185 Rome, Italy Paolo Mazzanti, CERI, Research Centre on Prevention, Prediction and Control of Geological Risks, P.zza U. Pilozzi 9, 00038 Valmontone, Italy Alberto Prestininzi, CERI, Research Centre on Prevention, Prediction and Control of Geological Risks, P.zza U. Pilozzi 9, 00038 Valmontone, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In the midst of the ever-increasing natural and human-induced disasters, where many of the preparedness and mitigation measures show inefficiencies, there is narrow margin for decision-makers to make mistakes by misallocating budgets, designing infeasible reconstruction plans, and in other terms, making decisions not in line with the public preferences. In particular, public participation in post-disaster measures seems undoubtedly necessary to reduce the possible economic, social, political, and cultural conflicts around the stressful community after a major disaster. This paper aims at evaluating the role of public participation in increasing the reconstruction phase efficiency through a case study of the reconstruction process in Bam, a southeastern Iranian city, after the 2003 earthquake. It is attempted to identify the major motivators of the public participation through a combination of quantitative and qualitative studies. Statistical data are generated through a set of questionnaires being filled by a number of 200 randomly selected survivors. The numerical results were then discussed through the Focus Group technique sessions to determine the main contributors to the public participation. It is later found that the answers are found among the performance of the reconstruction authorities, financial policies, emotional resiliency of the survivors, public information mechanisms, public satisfaction, the pace of reconstruction, and temporary housing policies. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9842-4 Authors Babak Omidvar, Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6135, Tehran, Iran Hossein Zafari, Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, Tehran, Iran Mehdi Khakpour, Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6135, Tehran, Iran Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    After the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman tsunamigenic earthquake, waters from the ocean moved upstream along rivers, bays, harbors, and lagoons and inundated many coastal and inland locations in the southern, eastern, and northern parts of Sri Lanka. The tsunami waters were observed to move upwards inland and then recede downwards to the ocean after varying inundation periods in different coastal areas. Subsequent massive tsunami waves came with the wave height varying from 3 to 8 m inland with speed of about 30–40 kmph. The oceanic waves carrying heterogeneous sediments with water deposited them in coastal as well as inland locations about 1 km from the present coastline. Given the chaotic nature of tsunami oceanic waves, pre-tsunami deposits, such as beach sands, debris from coral reefs and buildings, parts of vehicles and ships, and tree trunks are found incorporated in authentic tsunami sediments. Thus, the texture, structure, and composition of sediments deposited by tsunami waters differed from one location to another. Therefore, in identifying paleo-tsunami sediments, care was taken to compare them with diagnostic unmixed uncontaminated recent tsunami sediments having characteristic textures and marine microfossil assemblages, such as foraminifera, radiolarians, and diatoms where preserved in coastal depressions. The radiocarbon ages of the carbonate and the organic fractions of these sediments are stratigraphically inconsistent, indicating mixing of sediments by the tsunami waves. The concentrations of organic carbon and nitrogen and their isotopic signatures confirm marine origin of these sediments. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9824-6 Authors Kapila Dahanayake, Department of Geology, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka Nayomi Kulasena, Roughton International (UK), Southern Transport Development Project, Baddegama, Sri Lanka G. V. Ravi Prasad, AMS Radiocarbon Laboratory, Institute of Physics, Bhubaneswar, 751005 India Koushik Dutta, AMS Radiocarbon Laboratory, Institute of Physics, Bhubaneswar, 751005 India D. K. Ray, AMS Radiocarbon Laboratory, Institute of Physics, Bhubaneswar, 751005 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Assessment and inventory on soil erosion hazard are essential for the formulation of successful hazard mitigation plans and sustainable development. The objective of this study was to assess and map soil erosion hazard in Lesser Himalaya with a case study. The Dabka watershed constitutes a part of the Kosi Basin in the Lesser Himalaya, India, in district Nainital has been selected for the case illustration. The average rate of erosion hazard is 0.68 mm/year or 224 tons/km 2 /year. Anthropogenic and geo-environmental factors have together significantly accelerated the rate of erosion. This reconnaissance study estimates the erosion rate over the period of 3 years (2006–2008) as 1.21 mm/year (398 tons/km 2 /year) in the barren land having geological background of diamictite, siltstone and shale rocks, 0.92 mm/year (302 tons/km 2 /year) in the agricultural land with lithology of diamictite, slates, siltstone, limestone rocks, while in the forest land, it varies between 0.20 mm/year (66 tons/km 2 /year) under dense forest land having the geology of quartzwacke and quartrenite rocks and 0.40 mm/year (132 tons/km 2 /year) under open forest/shrubs land having geological setup of shale, dolomite and gypsum rocks. Compared to the intensity of erosion in the least disturbed dense forest, the erosion rate is about 5–6 times higher in the most disturbed agricultural land and barren land, respectively. The erosion hazard zones delineated following scalogram modelling approach. Integrated scalogram modelling approach resulted in severe classes of soil erosion hazard in the study area with numerical values of Erosion Hazard Index (EHI) ranging between 01 (very low hazard) and 5 (very high hazard). Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9833-5 Authors Pradeep K. Rawat, Department of Geography, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India P. C. Tiwari, Department of Geography, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India C. C. Pant, Department of Geology, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India A. K. Sharama, Department of Geology, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India P. D. Pant, Department of Geology, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Soil erosion is a serious environmental problem in Indravati catchment. It carries the highest amount of sediments compared with other catchments in India. This catchment spreading an area of 41,285 km 2 is drained by river Indravati, which is one of the northern tributaries of the river Godavari in its lower reach. In the present study, USLE is used to estimate potential soil erosion from river Indravati catchment. Both magnitude and spatial distribution of potential soil erosion in the catchment is determined. The derived soil loss map from USLE model is classified into six categories ranging from slight to very severe risk depending on the calculated soil erosion amount. The soil erosion map is linked to elevation and slope maps to identify the area for conservation practice in order to reduce the soil loss. From the model output predictions, it is found that average erosion rate predicted is 18.00 tons/ha/year and sediment yield at the out let of the catchment is 22.30 Million tons per annum. The predicted sediment yield verified with the observed data. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9832-6 Authors Sreenivasulu Vemu, Department of Civil Engineering, JNT University, Kakinada, 533003 AP, India Udaya Bhaskar Pinnamaneni, Department of Civil Engineering, JNT University, Kakinada, 533003 AP, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This paper introduces a new metric for tropical cyclone track shape within the tropical South Pacific (TSP) basin, based on measurements of track sinuosity. A sinuosity index (SI) is developed by applying a simple cube-root transformation to original track sinuosity values. Based on the resulting near-normal SI distribution, an ordinal four-category (quartile) naming system is then proposed for track-type classification. Track sinuosity patterns are also investigated over the last four decades (1970–2008). Analytical findings suggest that cyclone track sinuosity is an important parameter influencing the potential vulnerability of island archipelagoes to cyclone hazard. Principally, sinuously moving cyclones show some tendency for greater longevity and intensity than straighter-tracking storms and make up a larger proportion of systems forming in the western tropical South Pacific than those generated farther east. Although no long-term statistical trend can be established, track sinuosity is highly variable through time, implying that the TSP basin and the islands therein will continue to experience large but irregular inter-annual fluctuations in cyclone track morphology. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9827-3 Authors James P. Terry, Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, AS2, 1 Arts Link, Kent Ridge, 117570 Singapore Gennady Gienko, Department of Geomatics, School of Engineering, University of Alaska Anchorage, 3211 Providence Drive, Anchorage, AK 99508-4514, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The level of damage of flood events does not solely depend on exposure to flood waters. Vulnerabilities due to various socio-economic factors such as population at risk, public awareness, and presence of early warning systems, etc. should also be taken into account. Federal and state agencies, watershed management coalitions, insurance companies, need reliable decision support system to evaluate flood risk, to plan and design flood damage assessment and mitigation systems. In current practice, flood damage evaluations are generally carried out based on results obtained from one dimensional (1D) numerical simulations. In some cases, however, 1D simulation is not able to accurately capture the dynamics of the flood events. The present study describes a decision support system, which is based on 2D flood simulation results obtained with CCHE2D-FLOOD. The 2D computational results are complemented with information from various resources, such as census block layer, detailed survey data, and remote sensing images, to estimate loss of life and direct damages (meso or micro scale) to property under uncertainty. Flood damage calculations consider damages to residential, commercial, and industrial buildings in urban areas, and damages to crops in rural areas. The decision support system takes advantage of fast raster layer operations in a GIS platform to generate flood hazard maps based on various user-defined criteria. Monte Carlo method based on an event tree analysis is introduced to account for uncertainties in various parameters. A case study illustrates the uses of the proposed decision support system. The results show that the proposed decision support system allows stake holders to have a better appreciation of the consequences of the flood. It can also be used for planning, design, and evaluation of future flood mitigation measures. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9822-8 Authors Honghai Qi, National Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering (NCCHE), The University of Mississippi, University, Oxford, MS 38677, USA M. S. Altinakar, National Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering (NCCHE), The University of Mississippi, University, Oxford, MS 38677, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In this paper, we present a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for mainland Spain that takes into account recent new results in seismicity, seismic zoning, and strong ground attenuation not considered in the latest PSHA of the Spanish Building Code. Those new input data have been obtained as a three-step project carried out in order to improve the existing hazard map for mainland Spain. We have produced a new earthquake catalogue for the area, in which the earthquakes are given in moment magnitude through specific deduced relationships for our territory based on intensity data (Mezcua et al. in Seismol Res Lett 75:75–81, 2004 ). In addition, we included a new seismogenetic zoning based on the recent partial zoning studies performed by different authors. Finally, as we have developed a new strong ground motion model for the area García Blanco ( 2009 ), it was considered in the hazard calculation together with other attenuations gathered from different authors using data compatible with our region. With this new data, a logic tree process is defined to quantify the epistemic uncertainty related to those parts of the process. A sensitivity test has been included in order to analyze the different models of ground motion and seismotectonic zonation used in this work. Finally, after applying a weighting scheme, a mean hazard map for PGA, based on rock type condition for 10% exceedance probability in 50 years, is presented, including 15th and 85th percentile hazard maps. The main differences with the present official building code hazard map are analyzed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9819-3 Authors Julio Mezcua, Instituto Geográfico Nacional, General Ibáñez de Ibero 3, 28003 Madrid, Spain Juan Rueda, Instituto Geográfico Nacional, General Ibáñez de Ibero 3, 28003 Madrid, Spain Rosa M. García Blanco, Departamento de Ingeniería Topográfica y Cartografía, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Campus Sur, Autovía de Valencia km 7.5, 28031 Madrid, Spain Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Earthquake-induced landslides are responsible worldwide for significant socioeconomic losses and historically have a prominent position in the list of natural hazards affecting the Iran plateau. As a step toward the development of tools for the assessment and the management of this kind of hazard at regional scale, an empirical estimator of coseismic displacements along potential sliding surfaces was obtained through a regression analysis for the Zagros region, a mountainous Iranian region subjected to earthquake-induced landslides. This estimator, based on the Newmark’s model, allows to evaluate the expected permanent displacement (named “Newmark displacement”) induced by seismic shaking of defined energy on potential sliding surface characterized by a given critical acceleration. To produce regression models for Newmark displacement estimators, a data set was constructed for different critical acceleration values on the basis of 108 accelerometric recordings from 80 Iranian earthquakes with moment magnitudes between 3.6 and 7. The empirical estimator has a general form, proposed by Jibson (Eng Geol 91:209–218, 2007 ), relating Newmark displacement to Arias intensity (as parameter representing the energy of the seismic forces) and to critical acceleration (as parameter representing the dynamic shear resistance of the sliding mass). As an example of application, this relation was employed to provide a basic document for earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment at regional scale, according to a method proposed by Del Gaudio et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:557–569, 2003 ), applied to the whole Iranian territory, including Zagros region. This method consists in evaluating the shear resistance required to slopes to limit the occurrence of seismically induced failures, on the basis of the Newmark’s model. The obtained results show that the exposure to landslide seismic induction is maximum in the Alborz Mountains region, where critical accelerations up to ~0.1 g are required to limit the probability of seismic triggering of coherent type landslides within 10% in 50 years. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9829-1 Authors Ali M. Rajabi, Civil Engineering Department, Qom University, PO Box 14115-175, Qom, Iran Mohammad R. Mahdavifar, Geotechnical Engineering Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), PO Box 19395-3913, Tehran, Iran M. Khamehchiyan, Engineering Geology Department, Tarbiat Modares University, PO Box 14115-175, Tehran, Iran V. Del Gaudio, Dipartimento di Geologia e Geofisica, Universita` degli Studi di Bari, Campus, via E.Orabona 4, 70125 Bari, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This paper presents the development of the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) in order to quantify the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone areas under various scenarios of climate change. The 2004–2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons is estimated to have caused 150 billion dollars in damages , and in recent years , the annual hurricane damage in the United States is estimated at around 6 billion. Hurricane intensity or/and frequency may change due to the increase in sea surface temperature as a result of climate change. Climate change is also predicted to cause a rise in sea levels, potentially resulting in higher storm surges. The CCSVI combines the intensity of hurricanes and hurricane-induced surge to create a comprehensive index that considers the effects of a changing climate. The main contributing factors of social vulnerability (such as race, age, gender, and socioeconomic status) in hurricane-prone areas are identified through a principal components analysis. The impact of social characteristics on the potential hurricane damage under various scenarios of climate change are evaluated using Miami-Dade County, Florida, as a case study location. This study finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the CCSVI. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9817-5 Authors Sigridur Bjarnadottir, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI, USA Yue Li, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI, USA Mark G. Stewart, Center for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, School of Engineering, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In this paper, the applicability of the Newmark method at regional, sub-regional and site scales has been investigated in the Lorca Basin (Murcia). This basin is located in one of the most seismically active regions of Spain. The area is very interesting for studying earthquake-induced slope instabilities as there are well-known cases associated with specific earthquakes. For the regional and sub-regional scales, a geographic information system has been used to develop an implementation of Newmark sliding rigid block method. Soil and topographic amplification effects have been particularly considered. Subsequently, ‘Newmark displacement’ maps for deterministic seismic scenarios have been produced. Some specific studies have also been performed using limit equilibrium methods to estimate the safety factor and the critical acceleration of certain slope instabilities at a site scale. These instabilities were the rock slides related to recent seismic series at the Lorca Basin: 2002 Bullas ( M w  = 5.0) and 2005 La Paca ( M w  = 4.8). Finally, the safety factor, critical acceleration and Newmark displacement values estimated at different scales have been compared to determine which scale is most suitable for the Newmark method. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9820-x Authors Martín Jesús Rodríguez-Peces, Departamento de Geodinámica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, C/Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada, Spain José Luis Pérez-García, Departamento de Ingeniería Cartográfica, Geodésica y Fotogrametría, Universidad de Jaén, Campus de las Lagunillas, s/n. Edif. A3, 23071 Jaén, Spain Julián García-Mayordomo, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España (IGME), C/La Calera, 1, 28760 Tres Cantos, Madrid, Spain José Miguel Azañón, Departamento de Geodinámica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, C/Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada, Spain Juan Miguel Insua-Arévalo, Departamento de Geodinámica, Facultad de Ciencias Geológicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain Jorge Delgado-García, Departamento de Ingeniería Cartográfica, Geodésica y Fotogrametría, Universidad de Jaén, Campus de las Lagunillas, s/n. Edif. A3, 23071 Jaén, Spain Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The obtained data on the average long-term ionic runoff of mountain rivers of Azerbaijan served as the basis for the study of its distribution and for the improvement of computation technique depending on the average annual water runoff and on the average height and area of the catchment. Content Type Journal Article Pages 279-283 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911040108 Authors M. A. Abduev, Aliev Institute of Geography, Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, ul. G. Dzhavida 31, Baku, 370143 Azerbaijan Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 4

Description:    The time series of seasonal average values and standard deviations of wind speed components at the isobaric surfaces of 850 and 200 hPa are analyzed on the basis of the data of upper-air observations carried out in 1961–2003 at 18 stations of the Russian Federation territory. The energy spectra of wind speed components in the first and in the second halves of the whole period under study are compared. On the whole, an increase in average values of U -component and decrease in average values of V -component took place both in upper and lower troposphere, and the largest variations occurred in winter season in the upper troposphere. Average coefficients of linear trends of average winter values for the whole region amount to 0.57 and −0.62 m/s per 10 years for the wind components U and V at the isobaric surface of 200 hPa, respectively. The increase in the standard deviations of both components was registered in the upper troposphere in winter period almost on the whole territory. The average coefficients of linear trends of standard deviations at the isobaric surface of 200 hPa in winter for the whole region amount to 0.53 and 0.61 m/s per 10 years for U - and V -components, respectively. The intensity of the annual cycle and processes of intraseasonal scale both in the lower and upper troposphere increased in the second half of the whole interval under study. Content Type Journal Article Pages 229-238 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911040029 Authors A. V. Khokhlova, All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Center, ul. Koroleva 6, Obninsk, Kaluga oblast, 249035 Russia A. A. Timofeev, All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Center, ul. Koroleva 6, Obninsk, Kaluga oblast, 249035 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 4

Description:    Results of joint calculations with meteorological WRF ARW model and chemistry transport CHIMERE model are considered as a basis of the modern system of the air quality assessment and forecasting. The system was designed in the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Detailed prognostic information about the atmosphere state provided by the WRF ARW was used in the CHIMERE model for describing the air mass transport processes, chemical transformation, and pollution deposition. Results of retrieval and forecast of surface ozone concentration as one of main air quality indicators are under consideration. Calculations of ozone concentrations for different configurations of a prognostic system differ in resolution of model grid and in the way the boundary conditions are prescribed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 249-257 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911040054 Authors R. B. Zaripov, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia I. B. Konovalov, Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Ulnova 46, Nizhni Novgorod, 603950 Russia I. N. Kuznetsova, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia I. B. Belikov, Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevskii per. 3, Moscow, 109017 Russia A. M. Zvyagintsev, Central Aerological Observatory, Pervomaiskaya ul. 3, Dolgoprudny, Moscow oblast, 141700 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 4

Description:    The technique and results of computations of statistical parameters of ice pile-up formation on the western coast of the northern Caspian Sea are presented. The dynamic model of ice pile-up formation on the shores is described. The main ice, meteorological, and morphologic factors influencing the shore pile-up formation are analyzed. The test computation enabling to estimate the model adequacy is described. The estimation principle of the probability of the formation of the ice pile-up of certain size is given and the distribution functions of geometrical parameters of the pile-ups on the western coast of the northern Caspian Sea are obtained. The limits of the proposed model are specially stipulated. Content Type Journal Article Pages 193-199 DOI 10.3103/S106837391103006X Authors S. V. Klyachkin, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, ul. Beringa 38, St. Petersburg, 199397 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 3

Description:    Interadapted fields of main hydrophysical characteristics in the vicinity of hydrological sections carried out in 1997–1998 in the Barents Sea are obtained on the basis of model computations. The complex analysis of these materials and atmospheric situation in the region during 1997–1998 enabled to estimate quantitatively the variations of significant hydrodynamic conditions: the decrease in the inflow of rather warm and salty North Atlantic waters and the compensation inflow of polar waters, the decrease in total heat content and the weakening of water dynamics in the system of the general cyclonic circulation, and the increase in the ice coverage of the Barents Sea in anomalously cold winter 1997/98. It is revealed with a high degree of the confidence probability that the significant deviations from the normal conditions occur in response to the global El Niño disturbance which took place in the same years with the maximum values of the Southern Oscillation Index in January–March 1998. Content Type Journal Article Pages 185-192 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911030058 Authors A. N. Sidorova, Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Krasikova 23, Moscow, 117218 Russia A. D. Shcherbinin, Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Krasikova 23, Moscow, 117218 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 3

Description:    The probability multimodel forecast system based on the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) model data is verified. The winter and summer seasonal mean fields T 850 and precipitation seasonal totals are estimated. To combine the models into a multimodel ensemble, the probability forecast is calculated for each of single models first, and then these forecasts are combined using the total probability formula. It is shown that the multimodel forecast is considerably more skilful than the single-model forecasts. The forecast quality is higher in the tropics compared to the mid- and high latitudes. The multimodel ensemble temperature forecasts outperform the random and climate forecasts for Northern Eurasia in the above- and below-normal categories. Precipitation forecast is less successful. For winter, the combination of single-model ensembles provides the precipitation forecast skill exceeding that of the random forecast for both Northern Eurasia and European Russia. Content Type Journal Article Pages 145-154 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911030010 Authors A. Yu. Bundel, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia V. N. Kryzhov, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia Young-Mi Min, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center, 1463 U-dong, Haeundae-gu, Busan, 612-020 Republic of Korea V. M. Khan, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia R. M. Vilfand, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia V. A. Tishchenko, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 3

Description:    Development of a long-living Cb cloud in the desert part of Saudi Arabia on April 10, 2008 is analyzed. Continuous satellite and radar observations of the cloud are carried out during five hours. Numerical modeling of the cloud is performed using a nonstationary 1.5-dimensional model. Data on the Cb cloud and its anvil development dynamics are obtained. It is shown that the anvil characteristics differ significantly in the zone of its formation directly over the cloud and when moving away from it. It is pointed out that the radar underestimates the anvil sizes. Estimation of precipitation rate from the cloud under study by means of satellite and radar measurements is compared against the results of numerical modeling. It is found that precipitation rate could reach 100 mm/h. The radar estimates of the precipitation rate are significantly overstated, which is, in this case, due to presence of large hail particles. Content Type Journal Article Pages 167-174 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911030034 Authors T. W. Krauss, Weather Modification Inc., 3802 20 St. N., Fargo, ND 58102, USA A. A. Sin’kevich, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, ul. Karbysheva 7, St. Petersburg, 194021 Russia N. E. Veremei, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, ul. Karbysheva 7, St. Petersburg, 194021 Russia Yu. A. Dovgalyuk, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, ul. Karbysheva 7, St. Petersburg, 194021 Russia V. S. Makitov, Weather Modification Inc., 3802 20 St. N., Fargo, ND 58102, USA V. D. Stepanenko, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, ul. Karbysheva 7, St. Petersburg, 194021 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 3

Description:    It is demonstrated that the results of the climate modeling cannot be directly used to forecast the regional climate changes on the territory of the Russian Federation for one-three decades due to the strong influence of the natural long-period climatic variability associated with the processes in the ocean-atmosphere system in the North Atlantic. A model is proposed of the temperature variations in the regions of the Russian Federation including the variations of the global temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. An empirical dynamic-stochastic model with external radiation impacts is used for the global temperature. Different scenarios of concentration variations of the radiation-active atmospheric components and NAO are considered. It is demonstrated that depending on the accepted hypothesis concerning the type of the expected NAO variations (natural fluctuations or the result of anthropogenic impacts) and on the scenario of concentration variations of the sulfate aerosols and methane, the average annual temperature variations on the territory of the Russian Federation between 2007 and 2030 may amount from 0.81 to 1.90°C. The estimates of temperature variations for the main physiographic regions of the Russian Federation are obtained. Content Type Journal Article Pages 217-228 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911040017 Authors M. Yu. Bardin, Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Roshydromet and Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Glebovskaya 20b, Moscow, 107258 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 4

Description:    The characteristics of spatiotemporal variability of surface air temperature anomaly fields in China are computed from the data of instrumental observations carried out from 1907 to 2000. The fields are represented by their empirical orthogonal function expansion. The temporal variations of the coefficients of this expansion are considered at the scale range from one month to five years. It turned out that both the orthogonal function structure and the type of the temporal variability of expansion coefficients in China differ from those in Northern Eurasia. Investigating the current climate warming in China, it is enough to consider the first two empirical orthogonal functions of temperature fields only. The characteristic time of the existence of temperature anomalies described by these functions is almost the same as that of the temperature anomalies in Northern Eurasia described by the first empirical orthogonal function of the respective fields. Content Type Journal Article Pages 239-243 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911040030 Authors N. M. Datsenko, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia N. N. Ivashchenko, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia D. M. Sonechkin, Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Krasikova 23, Moscow, 117218 Russia Q. Chun, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Donggang West Road 320, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000 China B. Yang, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Donggang West Road 320, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000 China Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 4

Description:    The review is compiled based on the results of the operation of the total ozone (TO) monitoring system in the CIS and Baltic countries, functioning in the operational regime at the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO). The monitoring system uses the data from the national network of filter ozonometers M-124 type under supervision of the Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO). The proper operation of the entire system is under an operational control from observations with the OMI satellite (US NASA) equipment. Basic TO observation data for each month of the fourth quarter of 2010, for the quarter and the year as a whole are generalized. Peculiarities of the Spring Antarctic Ozone Anomaly development in 2010 are described. Basic results of regular observations of the surface ozone and other minor atmospheric gas components in the Moscow region in 2010 are also under consideration. Content Type Journal Article Pages 139-144 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911020105 Authors A. M. Zvyagintsev, Central Aerological Observatory, Pervomaiskaya ul. 3, Dolgoprudny, Moscow oblast, 141700 Russia N. S. Ivanova, Central Aerological Observatory, Pervomaiskaya ul. 3, Dolgoprudny, Moscow oblast, 141700 Russia G. M. Kruchenitskii, Central Aerological Observatory, Pervomaiskaya ul. 3, Dolgoprudny, Moscow oblast, 141700 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 2

Description:    Peculiarities are investigated of the air temperature variation tendencies at some stations of the Far East in 1976–2005. The estimate of linear trend equation coefficients is computed according to the air temperature observation data using the least squares method. It is demonstrated that the air temperature trend in northern regions possesses a small probability at small values of residual variability. In the southern regions, the trend significance increases for almost all seasons at small values of residual variability. At midlatitude stations, the trend significance in January and February decreases considerably due to the large values of residual variability. Content Type Journal Article Pages 740-743 DOI 10.3103/S1068373910110038 Authors T. A. Shatilina, Pacific Research Fisheries Center, per. Shevchenko 4, Vladivostok, 690091 Russia G. Sh. Tsitsiashvili, Institute of Applied Mathematics, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Radio 7, Vladivostok, Primorskii krai, 690041 Russia T. V. Radchenkova, Institute of Applied Mathematics, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Radio 7, Vladivostok, Primorskii krai, 690041 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 35 Journal Issue Volume 35, Number 11

Description:    An applied statistical analysis is considered of periodically correlated time series with the known correlation period T . The statistical estimates are suggested of the trend (of nonrandom additive component) and mathematical expectation (of seasonal or daily component) of the time series under investigation. Content Type Journal Article Pages 744-749 DOI 10.3103/S106837391011004X Authors V. G. Alekseev, Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevskii per. 3, Moscow, 109017 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 35 Journal Issue Volume 35, Number 11

Description:    The problem of the solar radiation heat assimilation in the stratum of the ice hummock sail is considered within the frameworks of the problem of quantitative description of hummocky formation evolution. The technique of experimental investigations and the measuring means are described. The results are given of observations on the solar radiation weakening in the stratum of ice hummocks and level ice carried out at the North Pole-35 drifting station and during the Arctic-2008 expedition on board the scientific-research vessel Akademik Fedorov . It is demonstrated that the ice hummock sail stratum assimilates 20–50% of solar radiation more than the level sea ice. The possible explanation of this phenomenon is proposed based on morphometric peculiarities of ice hummock formation. Content Type Journal Article Pages 40-44 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911010067 Authors O. M. Andreev, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, ul. Beringa 38, St. Petersburg, 199397 Russia B. V. Ivanov, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, ul. Beringa 38, St. Petersburg, 199397 Russia A. M. Bezgreshnov, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, ul. Beringa 38, St. Petersburg, 199397 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 1

Description:    The present study explored the effect of assimilation of Advanced TIROS Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) temperature and humidity profiles and Spectral sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) total precipitable water (TPW) on the simulation of a monsoon depression which formed over the Arabian Sea during September 2005 using the Weather Research and Forecast model. The three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation technique has been employed for the purpose of assimilation of satellite observations. Statistical scores like “equitable threat score,” “bias score,” “forecast impact,” and “improvement parameter” have been used to examine the impact of the above-mentioned satellite observations on the numerical simulation of a monsoon depression. The diagnostics of this study include verification of the vertical structure of depression, in terms of temperature anomaly profiles and relative vorticity profiles with observations/analysis. Additional diagnostics of the study include the analysis of the heat budget and moisture budget. Such budget studies have been performed to provide information on the role of cumulus convection associated with the depression. The results of this study show direct and good evidence of the impact of the assimilation of the satellite observations using 3DVAR on the dynamical and thermodynamical features of a monsoon depression along with the effect of inclusion of satellite observation on the spatial pattern of the simulated precipitation associated with the depression. The “forecast impact” parameter calculated for the wind speed provides good evidence of the positive impact of the assimilation of ATOVS temperature and humidity profiles and SSM/I TPW on the model simulation, with the assimilation of the ATOVS profiles showing better impact in terms of a more positive value of the “forecast impact” parameter. The results of the study also indicate the improvement of the forecast skill in terms of “equitable threat score” and “bias score” due to the assimilation of satellite observation. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9857-x Authors M. Govindankutty, Department of Physics and Meteorology, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, India A. Chandrasekar, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Indian Institute of Space Science and Technology, Thiruvananthapuram, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Highways and railroads situated within rugged terrain are often subjected to the hazard of rockfalls. The task of assessing roadside rockmasses for potential hazards typically involves an on-site visual investigation of the rockmass by an engineer or geologist. At that time, numerous parameters associated with discontinuity orientations and spacing, block size (volume) and shape distributions, slope geometry, and ditch profile are either measured or estimated. Measurements are typically tallied according to a formal hazard rating system, and a hazard level is determined for the site. This methodology often involves direct exposure of the evaluating engineer to the hazard and can also create a potentially non-unique record of the assessed slope based on the skill, knowledge and background of the evaluating engineer. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)–based technologies have the capability to produce spatially accurate, high-resolution digital models of physical objects, known as point clouds. Mobile terrestrial LiDAR equipment can collect, at traffic speed, roadside data along highways and rail lines, scanning continual distances of hundreds of kilometres per day. Through the use of mobile terrestrial LiDAR, in conjunction with airborne and static systems for problem areas, rockfall hazard analysis workflows can be modified and optimized to produce minimally biased, repeatable results. Traditional rockfall hazard analysis inputs include two distinct, but related sets of variables related to geological or geometric control. Geologically controlled inputs to hazard rating systems include kinematic stability (joint identification/orientation) and rock block shape and size distributions. Geometrically controlled inputs include outcrop shape and size, road, ditch and outcrop profile, road curvature and vehicle line of sight. Inputs from both categories can be extracted or calculated from LiDAR data, although there are some limitations and special sampling and processing considerations related to structural character of the rockmass, as detailed in this paper. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-34 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9872-y Authors Matthew J. Lato, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway Mark S. Diederichs, Geological Sciences and Geological Engineering, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada D. Jean Hutchinson, Geological Sciences and Geological Engineering, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada Rob Harrap, Geological Sciences and Geological Engineering, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    A rock slide on top of the clayey–silty–sandy–pebbly masses in the Gschliefgraben (Upper Austria province, Lake Traunsee) having occurred in 2006, together with the humid autumn of 2007, triggered a mudslide comprising a volume up to 4 million m³ and moving with a maximum displacement velocity of 5 m/day during the winter of 2007–2008. The possible damage was estimated up to 60 million € due to the possible destruction of houses and of a road to a settlement with intense tourism. The movement front ran ahead in the creek bed. Therefore, it was assumed that water played an important role. Inclinometer measurements showed that a less permeable layer was sliding on a thin, more permeable layer. During the last centuries, mudslides had already pushed farms into the lake, as reported by chronicles. Thus, the inhabitants of 46 houses had to be evacuated for safety reasons. They could return to their homes after displacement velocities had decreased. It was decided (a) to prevent soaking of water into the uppermost, less permeable layer by transversal drainages, (b) to lower the pore water pressures by longitudinal trenches filled with blocky material, (c) to pump water out of the more permeable layer by well drillings upslope of the houses in order to create a stable block below the houses and (d) to remove material thrust over the stable blocks in order to avoid damage to the houses. These mitigation measures costing 11.5 million € led to a deceleration of the process to displacement velocities of some cm/year up to now. The houses and the road were not damaged. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9865-x Authors R. Poisel, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria R. Hofmann, Geotechnical Engineering Hofmann, Perchtoldsdorf, Austria A. Preh, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria T. Sausgruber, Austrian Service for Torrent, Erosion and Avalanche Control, Geological Service, Innsbruck, Austria M. Schiffer, Austrian Service for Torrent, Erosion and Avalanche Control, Project Management Salzkammergut, Bad Ischl, Austria Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Investigations carried out in the Northern Dvina River basin revealed that the decrease in the ice thickness on small rivers is of significant importance in the increase in the water content of rivers in winter in recent decades. This process resulted in the improvement of the channel capacity as a result of the decrease in the ice formation intensity on the rivers and of the increase in the fraction of ground waters participating in the winter river runoff formation. It is proposed to consider the initial winter ice conditions as a separate important factor of this process as they define the types of river freezing influencing on the winter river runoff formation as well. Content Type Journal Article Pages 348-353 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911050098 Authors E. V. Gurevich, State Hydrological Institute, Vtoraya liniya 23, V.O., St. Petersburg, 199053 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 5

Description:    The classification is made of atmospheric circulation over the South China Sea water area for the period from 2000 to 2008 on the basis of daily surface synoptic charts taking account of the movement of cyclones and location of anticyclones. Three typical situations are marked out: low-gradient field, low-gradient field with the strong wind in the north of the sea, and the tropical cyclone appearance including three subtypes (the cyclone in the north, at the center, and in the south of the sea). The repeatability, continuity, and duration of the action of the types of atmospheric processes are computed as well as their seasonal and interannual variability. Content Type Journal Article Pages 294-299 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911050025 Authors A. M. Polyakova, Il’ichev Pacific Institute of Oceanology, Far East Division, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Baltiiskaya 43, Vladivostok, 690041 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 5

Description:    The paper is based on the experimental data obtained by the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute during the expeditions carried out in 2001–2008 within the frameworks of the Ice Research Program of Lukoil Co. in the northwestern part of the Caspian Sea. The in situ data processing and their statistical analysis enabled to obtain new information on the geometry of ice formations and distribution of main morphometric parameters of ice hummocks and stamukhas. The regularities are revealed of distributions of morphometric characteristics and parameters of the internal structure of ice hummocks and stamukhas. Content Type Journal Article Pages 333-339 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911050074 Authors E. U. Mironov, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, ul. Beringa 38, St. Petersburg, 199397 Russia V. S. Porubaev, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, ul. Beringa 38, St. Petersburg, 199397 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 5

Description:    A computer complex is described developed for the detailed temperature forecasting in large megalopolises. It consists of the global and microclimatic models implementing the modeling of the thermal regime within Moscow. To increase the modeling quality, an improved technique is proposed of computation of temperature characteristics within the urban canyon. A spatial resolution of output modeling data reaches 500 m. A comparison with the station data demonstrates that the accuracy of air temperature simulation in Moscow and in its nearest vicinities is quite satisfactory. Content Type Journal Article Pages 300-306 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911050037 Authors A. V. Kislov, Moscow State University, Vorob’evy gory, Moscow, 119899 Russia P. I. Konstantinov, Moscow State University, Vorob’evy gory, Moscow, 119899 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 5

Description:    A complex analysis is made of the variability of climatic, hydrological, and oceanological processes and environmental factors in the Baltic Sea region in the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century. The cause-and-effect relations between the climate dynamics over the North Atlantic and hydrometeorological conditions in the Baltic basin are established. Different variants of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices were used as an atmospheric circulation intensity measure. Content Type Journal Article Pages 340-347 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911050086 Authors V. V. Drozdov, Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Malookhtinskii pr. 98, St. Petersburg, 195196 Russia N. P. Smirnov, Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Malookhtinskii pr. 98, St. Petersburg, 195196 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 5

Description:    Conventional average values of Wallace-Gutzler indices for the regional circulations and average values of major variability components of the fields of the North Atlantic surface temperature anomalies are plotted on the geographical map used to analyze the total daily precipitation fields. The computation conditions of average values are defined by the dates classified according to three equiprobable gradations of total precipitation. A projection of conditional average values to the precipitation field points enables to estimate the atmospheric and oceanic “tracks” within the marked out gradations of total precipitation. The stratification and computation of characteristics are carried out for the summer and winter seasons. Large regions are revealed of statistically significant interrelation of the atmospheric circulation and major components of variability of the sea surface temperature anomalies with the extreme gradations of total precipitation for summer and winter seasons. The recommendations are formulated for the use of obtained results in the practice of the seasonal forecasting of meteorological conditions. Content Type Journal Article Pages 285-293 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911050013 Authors A. V. Murav’ev, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia I. A. Kulikova, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 5

Description:    The rainfall events that occurred in the Cubatão do Norte River watershed, Santa Catarina State, Brazil, in 2008, were characterized by both high intensities and amounts and triggered landslides in this watershed. The objective of the present study was to analyze the influence of landslides on the turbidity and the total solid concentration (TS) in this river using turbidity, TS, and river discharge data obtained from March 23, 2008, to June 11, 2010. The comparison between turbidity and discharge patterns implies that the landslide process was not continuous and increased the turbidity intermittently and irregularly. The sediment yield during the landslide occurrence was approximately five times higher than without the landslide, even though the discharges were similar. The turbidity/discharge relationship during the landslide occurrence was markedly different from that before and after the occurrence. The correlation coefficients between turbidity and TS showed that the landslide significantly changed the sediment yield in this watershed. The result indicates that sediment yield estimations at the watershed level should be treated more carefully when landslides occur. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9818-4 Authors Masato Kobiyama, Departamento de Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900, Brazil Aline de Almeida Mota, Departamento de Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900, Brazil Fernando Grison, Departamento de Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900, Brazil Joana Nery Giglio, Departamento de Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900, Brazil Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Multimodel forecast fields of temperature at 850 hPa and seasonal precipitation are combined using a procedure of two-step averaging. It is shown that the resulting forecasts averaged over the multimodel ensemble outperform the forecasts of individual models. The verification of forecast production has been carried out on cross-validated hindcasts according to WMO requirements. The simulation of spatiotemporal variability of atmospheric variables is assessed. The results indicate that the combined models are rather skillful in the tropical oceans, while the accuracy in the extratropics is poor. Content Type Journal Article Pages 11-17 DOI 10.3103/S106837391101002X Authors V. M. Khan, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia V. N. Kryzhov, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia R. M. Vil’fand, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia V. A. Tishchenko, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia A. Yu. Bundel’, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 1

Description:    The accumulation factor of radionuclides in river and water body bottom sediments K is an integral magnitude and depends on many parameters. With a two-compartment migration model (water-bottom sediments) an analytical relation is established for the conditions of a steady-state process of radioactive transfer for calculating K depending on the known parameters of radionuclide migration in the aquatic environment. With a reference to cesium 137 the calculated factor value is found for silty sediments in rivers and water bodies under characteristic summertime parameters of migration. The numerical analysis showed that the coefficient of radionuclide distribution in the water-suspension system and turbidity influence mostly the K value for cesium 137. For the practical use of this coefficient, a scheme of its correction is suggested depending on turbidity. An example of its practical use for calculating cesium 137 in water is considered. The calculated and measured volumetric activity values are intercompared. Content Type Journal Article Pages 33-39 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911010055 Authors A. L. Krylov, Institute of Problems of Safety Development of Atomic Energetics, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. B. Tul’skaya 52, Moscow, 115191 Russia A. V. Nosov, Joint-Stock Company “Atomenergoproject” Rosatom, ul. Bakuninskaya 7, str. 1, Moscow, 105005 Russia V. P. Kiselev, Institute of Problems of Safety Development of Atomic Energetics, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. B. Tul’skaya 52, Moscow, 115191 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 1

Description:    The display is considered of global processes in the ocean-atmosphere system in the variability of hydrophysical and hydrobiological fields of the northwestern part of the Black Sea in spring period of 1978–1995. It is demonstrated that the variability of North Atlantic and Southern oscillations in winter-spring period affects the spring hydrometeorological conditions in catchment areas of European rivers of the Black Sea basin causing the variability of runoff volumes of these rivers and the scales of spreading river waters at the northwestern shelf. Hydrological and hydrobiological characteristics of shelf waters varying in the process influence the formation of distribution of suspended matter content and transparency. Content Type Journal Article Pages 45-54 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911010079 Authors E. N. Voskresenskaya, Marine Hydrophysical Institute, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, ul. Kapitanskaya 2, Sevastopol, 99011 Ukraine A. S. Kukushkin, Marine Hydrophysical Institute, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, ul. Kapitanskaya 2, Sevastopol, 99011 Ukraine N. V. Mikhailova, Marine Hydrophysical Institute, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, ul. Kapitanskaya 2, Sevastopol, 99011 Ukraine Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 1

Description:    Main differences are considered in the formation of physical and mechanical ice properties in hummocky formations as compared with level areas of the ice cover. The results of laboratory and field investigations demonstrate that these differences are caused both by dynamometamorphic transformations of crystal ice structure as a result of the compression of ice fields before the beginning of hummocky ice formation and in the process of consolidation of ice blocks within the ice hummocks formed during the winter-spring period. Content Type Journal Article Pages 823-831 DOI 10.3103/S106837391012006X Authors K. P. Tyshko, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, ul. Beringa 38, St. Petersburg, 199397 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 35 Journal Issue Volume 35, Number 12

Description:    Features are considered of using a two-dimensional model of the atmospheric boundary layer for estimation of coastal fog parameters for the Siberian reservoirs, based on reanalysis and on output data of a regional climate model. The model fog characteristics are compared with observations at the reservoirs of Surgut power plants. Examples are given of the fog characteristic calculation for the projected Evenki hydrosystem. It is shown that the data of regional climate model can be used if the changes are taken into account of background climate in the area of the projected reservoir. Content Type Journal Article Pages 791-798 DOI 10.3103/S1068373910120010 Authors E. D. Nadezhina, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, ul. Karbysheva 7, St. Petersburg, 194021 Russia V. I. Matsak, Energetic Engineering Center of Ural, ul. Avtomatiki 3, Yekaterinburg, 620049 Russia A. A. Semioshina, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, ul. Karbysheva 7, St. Petersburg, 194021 Russia I. M. Shkol’nik, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, ul. Karbysheva 7, St. Petersburg, 194021 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 35 Journal Issue Volume 35, Number 12

Description:    In connection with analysis of anomalous weather in summer of 2010, the state-of-the-art is reviewed of climatology of the blocking anticyclones, of mechanism for their onset and persistence, as well as possibilities of their forecasting. The main results are quoted on occurrence frequency, intensity, and duration of blockings and on their connection with features of general circulation of the atmosphere in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. As the primary cause of the blocking formation, nonlinear instability of the Rossby waves is considered with intense energy exchange with planetary waves and with synoptic-scale eddies. Mathematical means have been developed to investigate the energy exchange on the real data of objective analysis (reanalysis). This approach can be applied to analyze causes of anomalous duration of the summer blocking. From the point of view of forecasting, blockings do not differ much from other atmospheric pressure systems. Namely, within the framework of medium-range forecasting, the blocking onset, under condition of its absence in the initial fields, can be predicted with a projection of several days; also, the ensemble forecasts are generally more successful than those obtained with any single model. The blocking duration and decay can be predicted successfully within the medium-range forecasting. Content Type Journal Article Pages 721-730 DOI 10.3103/S1068373910110014 Authors N. P. Shakina, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia A. R. Ivanova, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 35 Journal Issue Volume 35, Number 11

Description:    The greenhouse gases emission (CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O) from domestic and international aviation in the Russian Federation is assessed. In 2007, the total emission of CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O amounted to 18.4 million tons of CO 2 -equivalent, which is 21% below the 1990 level. Carbon dioxide dominates in the component composition of the emissions, its part in 2007 accounted for 99.1% of the emission. Taking into account the tendency towards increasing fuel consumption due to intense aircraft traffic it can be expected that compared to the present level the greenhouse gases emissions in 2012 and 2020 will increase by 15 and 45%, respectively. Accounting for the increased aircraft emissions as well as plans of foreign countries to include the international aviation into the scheme of greenhouse gases emission allowance (trade credits) it is expedient to make more precise the greenhouse gases emissions from the Russian aviation based on the detailed flight data for all types of the aircraft. Content Type Journal Article Pages 18-24 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911010031 Authors V. A. Grabar, Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Roshydromet and Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Glebovskaya 20b, Moscow, 107258 Russia M. L. Gitarskii, Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Roshydromet and Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Glebovskaya 20b, Moscow, 107258 Russia T. M. Dmitrieva, Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, Novovagan’kovskii per. 12, Moscow, 123242 Russia E. P. Glukhovskaya, Federal Aeronautical Service, Leningradskii pr. 37, kor. 2, Moscow, 125993 Russia N. I. Khor’kova, State Corporation for Organizing Air Traffic in the Russian Federation, Leningradskii pr. 37, kor. 7, Moscow, 125167 Russia S. V. Kirichkov, State Research Institute for Civil Aviation, Sheremet’evo-1 Airport, Moscow, 124340 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 1

Description:    This study describes a critical assessment of the risk control decision model from a methodological perspective and identifies major shortcomings with the employment of enhanced formal evaluation and decision-making methods. This in turn could have major applications for natural disaster risk control. The methodology follows the description of interpretive structural modeling (ISM), which is an interactive learning process in which a set of different and directly related elements is structured to form a comprehensive systemic model. The next step explores the potentials of different mathematical programming approaches in order to improve decision making, i.e., for the development of an economic utility constrained-maximization model that addresses the issue of optimal budget allocation under a trade-off framework. Several aspects of risk and uncertainty are discussed within the context of an economic utility constrained-maximization model with a major focus on the importance of risk and uncertainty in research evaluation, and how the strategy determines the insurance and risk control plans. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9861-1 Authors Chun-Pin Tseng, Armaments Bureau, Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology, Taoyuan, Taiwan Cheng-Wu Chen, Institute of Maritime Information and Technology, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung, 80543 Taiwan Yu-Ping Tu, Department of Logistics Management, Shu-Te University, Kaohsiung, 82445 Taiwan, Republic of China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    District-wide drought climatology over India for the southwest monsoon season (June–September) has been examined using two simple drought indices; Percent of Normal Precipitation (PNP) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The season drought indices were computed using long times series (1901–2003) of southwest monsoon season rainfall data of 458 districts over the country. Identification of all India (nation-wide) drought incidences using both PNP and SPI yielded nearly similar results. However, the district-wide climatology based on PNP was biased by the aridity of the region. Whereas district-wide drought climatology based on SPI was not biased by aridity. This study shows that SPI is a better drought index than PNP for the district-wide drought monitoring over the country. SPI is also suitable for examining break and active events in the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country. The trend analysis of district-wide season (June–September) SPI series showed significant negative trends over several districts from Chattisgarh, Bihar, Kerala, Jharkhand, Assam and Meghalaya, Uttaranchal, east Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha etc., Whereas significant positive trends in the SPI series were observed over several districts from west Uttar Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh, South & north Interior Karnataka, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, East Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Gujarat etc. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9867-8 Authors D. S. Pai, India Meteorological Department, Pune, India Latha Sridhar, India Meteorological Department, Pune, India Pulak Guhathakurta, India Meteorological Department, Pune, India H. R. Hatwar, India Meteorological Department, Pune, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The Indus flood in 2010 was one of the greatest river disasters in recent history, which affected more than 14 million people in Pakistan. Although excessive rainfall between July and September 2010 has been cited as the major causative factor for this disaster, the human interventions in the river system over the years made this disaster a catastrophe. Geomorphic analysis suggests that the Indus River has had a very dynamic regime in the past. However, the river has now been constrained by embankments on both sides, and several barrages have been constructed along the river. As a result, the river has been aggrading rapidly during the last few decades due to its exceptionally high sediment load particularly in reaches upstream of the barrages. This in turn has caused significant increase in cross-valley gradient leading to breaches upstream of the barrages and inundation of large areas. Our flow accumulation analysis using SRTM data not only supports this interpretation but also points out that there are several reaches along the Indus River, which are still vulnerable to such breaches and flooding. Even though the Indus flood in 2010 was characterized by exceptionally high discharges, our experience in working on Himalayan rivers and similar recent events in rivers in Nepal and India suggest that such events can occur at relatively low discharges. It is therefore of utmost importance to identify such areas and plan mitigation measures as soon as possible. We emphasize the role of geomorphology in flood analysis and management and urge the river managers to take urgent steps to incorporate the geomorphic understanding of Himalayan rivers in river management plans. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9869-6 Authors Kumar Gaurav, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, UP 208016, India R. Sinha, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, UP 208016, India P. K. Panda, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, UP 208016, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Tropical cyclone is one of the most devastating weather phenomena all over the world. The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has developed a sophisticated mesoscale model known as Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system for tropical cyclone studies. The state-of-the-art HWRF model (atmospheric component) has been used in simulating most of the features our present study of a very severe tropical cyclone “Mala”, which developed on April 26 over the Bay of Bengal and crossed the Arakan coast of Myanmar on April 29, 2006. The initial and lateral boundary conditions are obtained from Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecast fields of the NCEP, respectively. The performance of the model is evaluated with simulation of cyclone Mala with six different initial conditions at an interval of 12 h each from 00 UTC 25 April 2006 to 12 UTC 27 April 2006. The best result in terms of track and intensity forecast as obtained from different initial conditions is further investigated for large-scale fields and structure of the cyclone. For this purpose, a number of important predicted fields’ viz. central pressure/pressure drop, winds, precipitation, etc. are verified against observations/verification analysis. Also, some of the simulated diagnostic fields such as relative vorticity, pressure vertical velocity, heat fluxes, precipitation rate, and moisture convergences are investigated for understanding of the characteristics of the cyclone in more detail. The vector displacement errors in track forecasts are calculated with the estimated best track provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The results indicate that the model is able to capture most of the features of cyclone Mala with reasonable accuracy. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-25 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9863-z Authors Sujata Pattanayak, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 India U. C. Mohanty, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 India S. G. Gopalakrishnan, Hurricane Research Division, NOAA, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Seasonal water scarcity in southern China has been an issue of concern for many years. The increased frequency of low precipitation in the growing season of rice created a flurry of discussions in the academic and policy arenas. These events severely disrupted the supply of irrigation water for agriculture in paddy field areas and posed a substantial threat to farmers’ livelihoods. Within a broader context of accessing farmers’ resilience to agricultural drought, this paper focuses on the response mechanisms and adaptive strategies adopted by farming households in three types of areas (Plain, Hill, Mountain) in Dingcheng, Hunan Province. With the increasing drought frequency and the pressure from the demand for livelihood improvement, farmers’ response mechanisms have evolved, expanding from short-term adjustments to long-term adaptations, and switching focus from securing reliable water sources to improving irrigation efficiency and diversifying both on- and off- farm productions. The three types of geographic units have different resilience profiles and have developed diverse patterns of adaptive processes that update the conceptual model of Disaster Resilience of “Loss-Response” of Location. It presents a temporal dimension to the study of resilience, which is largely missing from the current literature and provides insights into how to enhance farmers’ response capacities in the face of agricultural drought in southern China. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9873-x Authors Yehong Sun, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China Hongjian Zhou, National Disaster Reduction Center of China (NDRCC), No. 6, Guangbaidonglu, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100022 China Jing’ai Wang, College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China Yi Yuan, National Disaster Reduction Center of China (NDRCC), No. 6, Guangbaidonglu, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100022 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Using newly digitised sea-level data for the ports of Southampton (1935–2005) and Portsmouth (1961–2005) on the south coast of the UK, this study investigates the relationship between the 100 highest sea-level events recorded at the two cities and the incidence of coastal floods in the adjoining Solent region. The main sources of flood data are the daily newspapers The Southern Daily Echo , based in Southampton and The News , based in Portsmouth, supported by a range of local publications and records. The study indicates a strong relationship between the highest measured sea levels and the incidence of coastal floods and highlights the most vulnerable areas to coastal flooding which include parts of Portsmouth, Southampton, Hayling Island, Fareham and Cowes. The most severe flood in the dataset resulted from the storm surge events of 13–17 December 1989 when eight consecutive extreme high waters occurred. The data suggest that while extreme sea-level events are becoming more common, the occurrence of flood events is not increasing. This is attributed to improved flood remediation measures combined with a reduction of storm intensity since the 1980s. However, several recent events of significance were still recorded, particularly 3 November 2005 when Eaststoke on Hayling Island (near Portsmouth) was flooded due to high sea levels combined with energetic swell waves. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-24 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9868-7 Authors Amy C. Ruocco, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK Robert J. Nicholls, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK Ivan D. Haigh, The School of Environment Systems Engineering and UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, M470, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia Matthew P. Wadey, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description: Field survey report on the 11th March 2011 tsunami in Pacific coast of Mexico Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-6 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9871-z Authors M. P. Jonathan, Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo (CIIEMAD), Instituto Politécnico Nacional (IPN), Calle 30 de Junio de 1520, Barrio la Laguna Ticomán, Del. Gustavo A. Madero, 07340 Mexico, DF, Mexico P. D. Roy, Instituto de Geología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510 Mexico, DF, Mexico J. L. Sánchez-Zavala, Instituto de Geología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510 Mexico, DF, Mexico S. Srinivasalu, Department of Geology, Anna University, Chennai, 600025 India M. C. Macías-Romo, Instituto de Geología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510 Mexico, DF, Mexico C. Lakshumanan, Centre for Remote Sensing, Bharathidasan University, Khajamalai Campus, Thiruchirappalli, 620023 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Chemical weapon dumped after World War II in the Baltic Sea continues to be of a great concern of the public and population of the countries adjoining the area of dumping. One of such areas is part of the water area in the vicinity of the island of Bornholm. In 2007–2008, within the frameworks of the EU MERCW project “Modelling the Environmental Risks Related to Sea-Dumped Chemical Weapons” the area was researched during the expedition and potential effect of the dumped chemical weapon on the Baltic Sea ecosystem was studied. The major objective of this paper is to assess the risk for the population from consuming the fish caught in the area of chemical weapon dumping near Bornholm. The risk assessment for the population consuming the fish contaminated by arsenic compounds was conducted. It is demonstrated that the level of the risk for the human population taking in arsenic is of such a value that (in accordance with the carcinogen risk classification) the decision-makers are recommended to take measures for its reducing. Content Type Journal Article Pages 324-332 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911050062 Authors M. N. Katkova, Taifun Scientific Industrial Association, pr. Lenina 82, Obninsk, Kaluga oblast, 249020 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 5

Description:    The maps are presented of seasonal air temperature and precipitation amount anomalies averaged for the whole Volga region and adjacent territory for two time periods, 1946–1977 and 1978–2008. It is demonstrated that the considerable differences in the thermal and moistening regimes of the Volga region exist for these two periods. The relation is described between the variations of temperature and precipitation amount and the circulation types according to Vangengeim-Girs classification as well as the possibility to use these data for specifying the climatic scenarios obtained on the basis of physically complete hydrodynamic models. Content Type Journal Article Pages 307-314 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911050049 Authors O. A. Anisimov, State Hydrological Institute, Vtoraya liniya 23, V.O., St. Petersburg, 199053 Russia I. I. Borzenkova, State Hydrological Institute, Vtoraya liniya 23, V.O., St. Petersburg, 199053 Russia E. L. Zhil’tsova, State Hydrological Institute, Vtoraya liniya 23, V.O., St. Petersburg, 199053 Russia O. K. Zakharova, State Hydrological Institute, Vtoraya liniya 23, V.O., St. Petersburg, 199053 Russia V. A. Kokorev, State Hydrological Institute, Vtoraya liniya 23, V.O., St. Petersburg, 199053 Russia S. A. Reneva, State Hydrological Institute, Vtoraya liniya 23, V.O., St. Petersburg, 199053 Russia Yu. G. Strel’chenko, State Hydrological Institute, Vtoraya liniya 23, V.O., St. Petersburg, 199053 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 5

Description: :   In North America and Europe, most fatalities due to snow avalanches occur in the backcountry during recreational pursuits. Of these, more than 90% of the fatal avalanches are triggered by the victims themselves. This pattern suggests that the primary cause of avalanche fatalities for human-triggered avalanches is a failure in human perception. For the latter, people thought that the state of stability or instability of the snow cover was different than it actually was. In this paper, the strength and weight of evidence used to make decisions in backcountry travel are discussed from: (a) the perspective of the favored hypothesis to proceed for good recreational enjoyment based on stability evaluation and (b) the null hypothesis based on an assessment of instability. Based on the facts about snow slab avalanche release, it is argued that instability analysis is the best framework for avalanche forecasting, whereas human action is most closely related to the favored hypothesis (stability evaluation). Using scaling laws derived from: (a) fracture mechanics about the size of imperfections causing avalanches and (b) avalanche dimensions, it is suggested that a snow slab could show stability over more than 99% of the total area. From the concepts of Bayesian probability, it is shown that overconfidence about stability can arise when the weight of the likelihood is high and the weight of prior is low. Similarly, underconfidence (excessive conservatism) often results when the weight of the prior is high with little regard for the likelihood, which may be low. Overconfidence about stability is considered to be a prime source of accidents. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9856-y Authors D. M. McClung, Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    A susceptibility map for an area, which is representative in terms of both geologic setting and slope instability phenomena of large sectors of the Sicilian Apennines, was produced using slope units and a multiparametric univariate model. The study area, extending for approximately 90 km 2 , was partitioned into 774 slope units, whose expected landslide occurrence was estimated by averaging seven susceptibility values, determined for the selected controlling factors: lithology, mean slope gradient, stream power index at the foot, mean topographic wetness index and profile curvature, slope unit length, and altitude range. Each of the recognized 490 landslides was represented by its centroid point. On the basis of conditional analysis, the susceptibility function here adopted is the density of landslides, computed for each class. Univariate susceptibility models were prepared for each of the controlling factors, and their predictive performance was estimated by prediction rate curves and effectiveness ratio applied to the susceptibility classes. This procedure allowed us to discriminate between effective and non-effective factors, so that only the former was subsequently combined in a multiparametric model, which was used to produce the final susceptibility map. The validation of this map latter enabled us to verify the reliability and predictive performance of the model. Slope unit altitude range and length, lithology and, subordinately, stream power index at the foot of the slope unit demonstrated to be the main controlling factors of landslides, while mean slope gradient, profile curvature, and topographic wetness index gave unsatisfactory results. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9846-0 Authors E. Rotigliano, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy C. Cappadonia, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy C. Conoscenti, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy D. Costanzo, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy V. Agnesi, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The purpose of this study is to evaluate and compare the results of applying the statistical index and the logistic regression methods for estimating landslide susceptibility in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. In order to do this, first, a landslide inventory map was constructed mainly based on investigated landslide locations from three projects conducted over the last 10 years. In addition, some recent landslide locations were identified from SPOT satellite images, fieldwork, and literature. Secondly, ten influencing factors for landslide occurrence were utilized. The slope gradient map, the slope curvature map, and the slope aspect map were derived from a digital elevation model (DEM) with resolution 20 × 20 m. The DEM was generated from topographic maps at a scale of 1:25,000. The lithology map and the distance to faults map were extracted from Geological and Mineral Resources maps. The soil type and the land use maps were extracted from National Pedology maps and National Land Use Status maps, respectively. Distance to rivers and distance to roads were computed based on river and road networks from topographic maps. In addition, a rainfall map was included in the models. Actual landslide locations were used to verify and to compare the results of landslide susceptibility maps. The accuracy of the results was evaluated by ROC analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) for the statistical index model was 0.946 and for the logistic regression model, 0.950, indicating an almost equal predicting capacity. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-32 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9844-2 Authors Dieu Tien Bui, Department of Mathematical Sciences and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003IMT, 1432 Ås, Norway Owe Lofman, Department of Mathematical Sciences and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003IMT, 1432 Ås, Norway Inge Revhaug, Department of Mathematical Sciences and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003IMT, 1432 Ås, Norway Oystein Dick, Department of Mathematical Sciences and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003IMT, 1432 Ås, Norway Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Changing characteristics of hazardous weather-related events have been arousing considerable public interest in recent years. Guangdong is an economically developed province in China and is prone to natural hazards. Using monthly precipitation data covering a period of 1956–2008 from 127 rain gauge stations, the probabilistic behaviors of SPI-based droughts were investigated with copulas functions. Results indicated a higher risk of droughts along the coastal regions and the western Guangdong, particularly the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. Joint probabilities of droughts with higher intensity and longer duration were found to have relatively even geographical distribution across Guangdong. The northern parts of Guangdong are higher in altitude and have a lower risk of droughts. Identification of regions characterized by droughts of different severity and durations across Guangdong is important for scientific management of water resource and agricultural activities and also the development of social resilience under the influence of climate changes. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9850-4 Authors Chun-Ling Liu, Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute, Guangzhou, 510611 China Qiang Zhang, Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275 China Vijay P. Singh, Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843-2117, USA Ying Cui, Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The landslide studies can be categorized as pre- and postdisaster studies. The predisaster studies include spatial prediction of potential landslide zones known as landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ) mapping to identify the areas/locales susceptible to landslide hazard. The LSZ maps provide an assessment of the safety of existing habitations and infrastructural/functional elements and help plan further developmental activities in the hilly regions. Landslides are one of the natural geohazards that affect at least 15% of land area of India. Different types of landslides occur frequently in geodynamical active domains of the Himalayas. In India, various techniques have been developed and adopted for LSZ mapping of different regions. However, the technique for LSZ mapping is not yet standardized. The present research is an attempt in this direction only. In our earlier work (Kanungo et al. 2006 ), a detailed study on conventional, artificial neural network (ANN)- black box-, fuzzy set-based and combined neural and fuzzy weighting techniques for LSZ mapping in Darjeeling Himalayas has been documented. In this paper, other techniques such as combined neural and certainty factor concept along with combined neural and likelihood ratio techniques have been assessed in comparison with combined neural and fuzzy technique for the preparation of LSZ maps of the same study area in parts of Darjeeling Himalayas. It is observed from the present study that the LSZ map produced using combined neural and fuzzy approach appears to be the most accurate one as in this case only 2.3% of the total area is found to be categorized as very high susceptibility zone and contains 30.1% of the existing landslide area. This approach can serve as one of the key objective approaches for spatial prediction of landslide hazards in hilly terrain. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9847-z Authors D. P. Kanungo, Geotechnical Engineering Division, CSIR-Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee, India S. Sarkar, Geotechnical Engineering Division, CSIR-Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee, India Shaifaly Sharma, Geotechnical Engineering Division, CSIR-Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Movement of seasonal eddies in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and its relation with cyclonic heat potential (CHP) and cyclogenesis points have been investigated in this study using 6 years (2002–2007) of global ocean monthly analysis datasets based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) package (SODA v2.0.4) of Carton et al. ( 2005 ) and Indian Meteorological Department cyclogenesis points. The region dominated by anticyclonic eddies with CHP greater than 70 × 10 7  J/m 2 as well as good correlations (〉0.9) with sea surface height (SSH) and 26°C isothermal depth ( D 26 ) can be a potential region of cyclogenesis. The region dominated by cyclonic eddies with CHP greater than 50 × 10 7  J/m 2 and good correlation (〉0.9) with both SSH and D 26 can serve as a potential region of high-level depression. Potential cyclogenesis regions are the southern BOB (5°N–12°N) for the post-monsoon season and the head of BOB (north of 15°N) during southwest monsoon. Seven potential regions are identified for the eddy formation for different seasons, which are consistent with the cyclogenesis points. The CHP distributions alone are able to explain the cyclone tracks for the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons but not for the monsoon season. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9858-9 Authors Bishnu Kumar, Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India Arun Chakraborty, Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    To overcome the disadvantages of traditional flow analysis methods for liquefied soils that exhibit fluidization and large deformation characteristics, Smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is adopted in this study to analyze the flow processes of liquefied soils. Bingham model with the use of the Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion, the concepts of equivalent Newtonian viscosity, and the Verlet neighbor list method are introduced into the framework of SPH to build an algorithm for the analysis of flowing liquefied soils. This modeling involves a simulation of physical model test of flowing liquefied soils that can be compared with numerical results. In addition, a shaking table test is selected from the literature for SPH analysis to verify the validation of the SPH method and extend its applications. The SPH simulation can reproduce the flow processes of liquefied soils and constrain estimates of the horizontal displacement, vertical displacement, and velocity of soils after liquefaction. According to the dynamic behaviors of the materials involved, designs can be implemented to improve the seismic safety of structures. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9851-3 Authors Yu Huang, Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Weijie Zhang, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Wuwei Mao, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Chen Jin, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The 27 November 1945 earthquake in the Makran Subduction Zone triggered a destructive tsunami that has left important problems unresolved. According to the available reports, high waves persisted along the Makran coast and at Karachi for several hours after the arrival of the first wave. Long-duration sea-level oscillations were also reported from Port Victoria, Seychelles. On the other hand, only one high wave was reported from Mumbai. Tide-gauge records of the tsunami from Karachi and Mumbai confirm these reports. While the data from Mumbai shows a single high wave, Karachi data shows that high waves persisted for more than 7 h, with maximum wave height occurring 2.8 h after the arrival of the first wave. In this paper, we analyze the cause of these persistent high waves using a numerical model. The simulation reproduces the observed features reasonably well, particularly the persistent high waves at Karachi and the single high wave at Mumbai. It further reveals that the persistent high waves along the Makran coast and at Karachi were the result of trapping of the tsunami-wave energy on the continental shelf off the Makran coast and that these coastally-trapped edge waves were trapped in the along-shore direction within a ∼300-km stretch of the continental shelf. Sensitivity experiments establish that this along-shore trapping of the tsunami energy is due to variations in the shelf width. In addition, the model simulation indicates that the reported long duration of sea-level oscillations at Port Victoria were mainly due to trapping of the tsunami energy over the large shallow region surrounding the Seychelles archipelago. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9854-0 Authors S. Neetu, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, 403004 India I. Suresh, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, 403004 India R. Shankar, The Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, 600113 India B. Nagarajan, Indian Institute of Surveying and Mapping, Survey of India, Hyderabad, 500039 India R. Sharma, Geodetic and Research Branch, Survey of India, Dehra Dun, 248001 India S. S. C. Shenoi, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad, 500055 India A. S. Unnikrishnan, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, 403004 India D. Sundar, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, 403004 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    A very severe cyclonic storm “Aila” hit West Bengal on 26 May 2009. The storm intensified when it encountered with a warm core (SST = 31°C) anti-cyclonic eddy (ACE4) in the north Bay of Bengal. The storm intensity increased by 43% due to this eddy, which is comparable with that (34%) obtained from a best fit line (derived from several numerical experiments over north-west Pacific Ocean). The shallow mixed layer of the large-scale ocean and deep mixed layer inside the eddy appear to be crucial parameters besides translation speed of the storm (Uh), ambient relative humidity and thermal stratification below mixed layer, in the storm intensification. From the eddy size and Uh, the eddy feedback factor is found to be about 0.4 (i.e. 40%), which is close to the above. Since there exists an inverse relationship between Uh and UOHC (upper ocean heat content), slow (fast) moving storms require high (low) UOHC. The warm ACE4 with a high UOHC of 149 kj/cm 2 (300% higher than the climatological value) and deep warm layer (D26 = 126 m) opposes the cooling induced by the storm and helps for the intensification of the storm through the supply of large enthalpy (latent + sensible) flux. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9837-1 Authors Y. Sadhuram, National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre (CSIR), 176, Lawsons Bay colony, Visakhapatnam, 530017 India K. Maneesha, National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre (CSIR), 176, Lawsons Bay colony, Visakhapatnam, 530017 India T. V. Ramana Murty, National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre (CSIR), 176, Lawsons Bay colony, Visakhapatnam, 530017 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Flooding is one of the major natural hazards in Taiwan, and most of the low-lying areas in Taiwan are flood-prone areas. In order to minimize loss of life and economic losses, a detailed and comprehensive decision-making tool is necessary for both flood control planning and emergency service operations. The objectives of this research were (i) to develop a hierarchical structure through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to provide preferred options for flood risk analysis, (ii) to map the relative flood risk using the geographic information system (GIS), and (iii) to integrate these two methodologies and apply them to one urban and one semi-rural area in central Taiwan. Fushin Township and the floodplain of Fazih River (1 km on either side of the channel) in Taichung City were selected for this study. In this paper, the flood risk is defined as the relative flood risk due to broken dikes or the failure of stormwater drainage systems. Seven factors were considered in relation to the failure of stormwater drainage, and five to that of broken dikes. Following well-defined procedures, flood maps were drawn based on the data collected from expert responses to a questionnaire, the field survey, satellite images, and documents from flood management agencies. The relative values of flood risk are presented using a 200-m grid for the two study areas. It is concluded that integration of AHP and GIS in flood risk assessment can provide useful detailed information for flood risk management, and the method can be easily applied to most areas in Taiwan where required data sets are readily available. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9831-7 Authors Yi-Ru Chen, School of Engineering, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Nathan, Brisbane, QLD 4111, Australia Chao-Hsien Yeh, Department of Water Resources Engineering and Conservation, Feng Chia University, No. 100 Wenhwa Road, Seatwen, Taichung, 40724 Taiwan Bofu Yu, School of Engineering, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Nathan, Brisbane, QLD 4111, Australia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    A method is presented to determine the quadratic nonlinearity parameter and amplitude of low-frequency internal gravity waves in the coastal zone of a fringing sea, based upon their propagation rate dependence on local value of pycnocline vertical displacement produced by the waves. To test the method, the internal wave field observations in the coastal zone of the Sea of Japan are used. The testing results show that the internal wave parameters calculated using the proposed method and the experimental data are in a good agreement with those calculated from theoretical formulas. Content Type Journal Article Pages 269-272 DOI 10.3103/S106837391104008X Authors V. V. Novotryasov, Il’ichev Pacific Institute of Oceanology, Far East Division, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Baltiiskaya 43, Vladivostok, 690041 Russia E. P. Pavlova, Il’ichev Pacific Institute of Oceanology, Far East Division, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Baltiiskaya 43, Vladivostok, 690041 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 4

Description:    Changes in daily mean and daily maximum surface ozone concentrations, temperature, and relative humidity are evaluated based on the data of long-term observations (from 11 to 16 years) carried out at eight German stations. For all stations the trends of daily mean surface ozone concentration are statistically significant and positive. The trend values are different and generally range from 0 to 10% per 10 years. The trends of the maximum daily concentration are, on average, approximately 1.5 times less. Noticeable part of trends of the surface ozone concentration is connected with the trends of meteorological variables: temperature, relative humidity, and air mass transport direction. After the account of the influence of the trends of meteorological variables, the trends of the surface ozone concentration at most stations substantially decrease. The highest trend values of daily mean and daily maximum surface ozone concentrations are observed in a cold season; in a warm season, the trend values are much lower, at some stations they are statistically insignificant. A conclusion is made that for a correct revealing of reasons of long-term changes in the surface ozone concentration one should take into account changes in meteorological factors influencing its formation. Content Type Journal Article Pages 258-264 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911040066 Authors A. M. Zvyagintsev, Central Aerological Observatory, Pervomaiskaya ul. 3, Dolgoprudny, Moscow oblast, 141700 Russia O. A. Tarasova, Central Aerological Observatory, Pervomaiskaya ul. 3, Dolgoprudny, Moscow oblast, 141700 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 4

Description:    Distribution of pressure systems in the Northern Hemisphere is analyzed in the latitudinal range of 40°–60° from the data of three sets of reanalysis. It is shown that the latitude-mean value of the 500-hPa isobaric surface tends to grow during last decades. By means of analysis of tropospheric frontal zone characteristics, the cases are revealed with blocking deformation of the pressure field. Occurrence frequency of blockings is analyzed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 244-248 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911040042 Authors V. P. Sadokov, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 4

Description:    The results of calculation and analysis of a long-term spatial variability in volumes of the influx of a wide spectrum of dissolved chemical substances to the Ob-Taz estuarine area are under consideration. It is shown that physical transport of mineral nitrogen and phosphorus, silicic acid, petroleum hydrocarbons, phenols, heavy metal compounds down the rivers flowing into the Ob-Taz estuarine area dominates over the processes of their chemical-biological transformation. Therefore, a substantial amount of these compounds enters the estuarine ecosystems, which leads to a substantial transformation of the component composition of their water environment and a greater extent of its pollution. The latter predetermines a possible transition of the Ob-Taz estuarine area state from equilibrium into crisis, and in occasional years, even into critical state. Content Type Journal Article Pages 200-206 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911030071 Authors V. A. Bryzgalo, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, ul. Beringa 38, St. Petersburg, 199397 Russia V. V. Ivanov, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, ul. Beringa 38, St. Petersburg, 199397 Russia I. M. Ivanova, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, ul. Beringa 38, St. Petersburg, 199397 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 3

Description:    The results of a comparative analysis of temporal and spatial variations in the particulate matter (PM 10 ) concentration are under consideration; the information is obtained based on the measurement data from the Mosekomonitoring network of stations and results of calculations with the CHIMERE chemistry transport model adapted for the Russian central region. The intercomparison of measurement data obtained in summer 2007 and respective calculations showed that the model provided a satisfactory reproduction of the observed temporal variability of the daily mean PM 10 concentration (an averaged correlation coefficient is 0.8), but systematically underestimated the absolute values of the PM 10 concentration. It is shown that model data quality can be significantly improved due to a simple a priori correction of the model errors. Irregularities in the spatial distribution of the PM 10 concentration and their dependence on meteorological conditions were revealed. The reasons of the formation of episodes of a high PM 10 concentration are considered. Content Type Journal Article Pages 175-184 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911030046 Authors I. N. Kuznetsova, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia I. B. Konovalov, Institute of Applied Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Ulnova 46, Nizhni Novgorod, 603950 Russia A. A. Glazkova, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia M. I. Nakhaev, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia R. B. Zaripov, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia E. A. Lezina, Mosekomonitoring State Nature Protection Organization, ul. Novyi Arbat 11, str. 1, Moscow, 121019 Russia A. M. Zvyagintsev, Central Aerological Observatory, Pervomaiskaya ul. 3, Dolgoprudny, Moscow oblast, 141700 Russia M. Beekmann, Inter-University Laboratory of Atmospheric Systems, av. Général de Gaulle 61, Paris, 94010 France Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 3

Description:    The main problems of the study of the meteorological regime, climate, hydrology, snow avalanches, mudflows, and glaciers are considered. It is demonstrated that the level of their exploration on the plain territory is sufficient on the whole, however, the mountain territories are poorly studied. The opening of new stations including the automatic ones and the organization of snow-route observations are required. It is necessary to carry out the preparation and publishing of new handbooks on the climate and surface water resources and to create the catalogs of glaciers, snow avalanches, and mudflows on the basis of the modern topographic maps and satellite images. Content Type Journal Article Pages 273-278 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911040091 Authors P. M. Lur’e, Northern Caucasian Interregional Territorial Administration for Hydrometeorological and Environmental Monitoring, ul. Erevanskaya 1/7, Rostov-on-Don, 344025 Russia V. D. Panov, Northern Caucasian Interregional Territorial Administration for Hydrometeorological and Environmental Monitoring, ul. Erevanskaya 1/7, Rostov-on-Don, 344025 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 4

Description:    A long-range atmosphere transfer of radionuclides from nuclear explosions and nuclear plant accidents is considered. Data on radionuclide transport in the Yenisey, Pripet, Sozh, Iput’, and Besed’ rivers are presented. The time of the radionuclide transport from the Irish Sea to the Baltic and Barents seas is defined using changes in the cesium 134/cesium 137 isotope ratio. Content Type Journal Article Pages 265-268 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911040078 Authors S. M. Vakulovskii, Taifun Scientific Industrial Association, pr. Lenina 82, Obninsk, Kaluga oblast, 249020 Russia M. G. Germenchuk, Department for Hydrometeorology, Ministry of Nature, ul. Komsomol’skaya 16, Minsk, 220030 Belarus O. M. Zhukova, Republic Center for Radiation Control and Environment Monitoring, pr. Nezavisimosti 110a, Minsk, 220114 Belarus Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 4

Description:    Results of investigations of the winter river runoff formation in the Northern Dvina River basin (without the Vychegda River basin) are under consideration. The peculiarities of the winter runoff formation are revealed from the analysis of the conditions of the runoff reduction in different parts of the river basin. A regulatory effect of the upper links of the river net on the lower links is established. Content Type Journal Article Pages 130-133 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911020087 Authors E. V. Gurevich, State Hydrological Institute, Vtoraya liniya 23, V.O., St. Petersburg 199053, Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 2

Description:    The slope of the tropopause is calculated from the data of its height in the points of a regular grid. From the NCEP Reanalysis-2 for 1990–2007, the slope angles are calculated of the tropopause approximated by different constant values of Ertel potential vorticity within the latitude band of 30°–70° N. Effects of horizontal resolution of the data under use on the calculation results are studied on the basis of ten-day samples of objective analysis by UKMO, NCEP, and operative objective analysis of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia in different seasons of 2009. Content Type Journal Article Pages 82-90 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911020026 Authors A. R. Ivanova, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 2

Description:    Some results of activities on cloud seeding operations to modify the weather conditions over metropolises are given. The main objective of these activities was to dissipate the clouds and to decrease or to stop the precipitation on the territory under protection during the political, cultural, or sporting events. Up to 12 aircraft specially equipped with the measuring equipment needed to carry out the cloud seeding, with the Land-Aircraft-Land radio data transmission system, and with the cloud seeding means were used to fulfill the works on the weather modification. The liquid nitrogen, “dry ice”, silver iodide, and coarse-dispersion powder were used as the reagents for the cloud seeding. To control the aviation works and the results of the cloud seeding, the ground-based automated meteorological radar systems were used. The results of more than 40 large-scale operations on the improvement of weather conditions carried out since 1995 in different regions of Russia and near abroad indicate the efficiency of the methods and technical means of cloud seeding developed by the specialists of Roshydromet to modify the atmospheric precipitation. Content Type Journal Article Pages 117-123 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911020063 Authors B. P. Koloskov, Agency of Atmospheric Technologies, Novovagan’kovskii per. 8, Moscow, 123995 Russia V. P. Korneev, Agency of Atmospheric Technologies, Novovagan’kovskii per. 8, Moscow, 123995 Russia V. V. Petrov, Agency of Atmospheric Technologies, Novovagan’kovskii per. 8, Moscow, 123995 Russia G. P. Beryulev, Central Aerological Observatory, ul. Pervomaiskaya 3, Dolgoprudny Moscow oblast, 141700 Russia B. G. Danelyan, Central Aerological Observatory, ul. Pervomaiskaya 3, Dolgoprudny Moscow oblast, 141700 Russia G. G. Shchukin, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, ul. Karbysheva 7, St. Petersburg, 194021 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 2

Description:    The characteristics are studied of warm cloud mediums (size spectra, concentration, etc.) formed in the cloud chamber of the volume of 3200 m 3 at adiabatic expansion of the humid air and at the variations of condensation nuclei concentration within the limits of 50–500 times from the initial one. To remove the nuclei, the volume electrostatic technique was used not requiring the ventilators. By means of the decrease in the cloud condensation nuclei concentration to the order of 100 cm −3 and less, it was succeeded for the first time to prevent the formation of clouds and fogs at adiabatic cooling of the humid air with equivalent speed of less than U z = 28 cm/s. At U z = 28–35 cm/s and nuclei concentration of 50–200 cm −3 , it becomes possible to simulate the fine-droplet hazes and fogs with monomodal spectra at average droplet diameter of 4–6 μm. At small and moderate rate U z = 11–100 cm/s and active nuclei concentration of 300–700 cm −3 , one can simulate the convective clouds with wide polymodal spectra. The potential of modern models of cloud spectra formation and the prospects of application of the technique of ion-stimulated variations of condensation nuclei concentration are discussed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 155-166 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911030022 Authors V. V. Smirnov, Taifun Scientific Industrial Association, pr. Lenina 82, Obninsk, Kaluga oblast, 249020 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 3

Description:    An evolution of the anomalous tropical storm is considered developed on April 29–May 4, 2008 over the Bay of Bengal. After the origination, it spread eastward through the Andaman Sea and reached the Myanmar coast. The analysis of formation and development of the tropical storm over the water area of the Bay of Bengal demonstrated that the sea level pressure at the center of this storm was rather high. Nevertheless, catastrophically large precipitation amount fell in Myanmar. Content Type Journal Article Pages 112-116 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911020051 Authors A. I. Degtyarev, Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Roshydromet and Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Glebovskaya 20b, Moscow, 107258 Russia N. V. Degtyareva, Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Roshydromet and Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Glebovskaya 20b, Moscow, 107258 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 2

Description:    Basing on statements of general theory of systems, possibilities are considered to use the Lotki-Volterra model describing behavior of the system of consumer-resource (object-resource) for biological populations, in description of evolution elements of convective cloud (convective cell). The obtained results lead to a conclusion on applicability of the approach to the mentioned purposes. Content Type Journal Article Pages 134-138 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911020099 Authors G. S. Burundukov, Institute for Electronic Engineering and Industrial Technologies, Academy of Sciences of Republic of Moldova, ul. Akademicheskaya 3/3, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova MD-2-28 E. I. Potapov, Institute for Electronic Engineering and Industrial Technologies, Academy of Sciences of Republic of Moldova, ul. Akademicheskaya 3/3, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova MD-2-28 I. A. Garaba, Institute for Electronic Engineering and Industrial Technologies, Academy of Sciences of Republic of Moldova, ul. Akademicheskaya 3/3, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova MD-2-28 S. D. Plyusnin, Institute for Electronic Engineering and Industrial Technologies, Academy of Sciences of Republic of Moldova, ul. Akademicheskaya 3/3, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova MD-2-28 E. A. Zasavitskii, Institute for Electronic Engineering and Industrial Technologies, Academy of Sciences of Republic of Moldova, ul. Akademicheskaya 3/3, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova MD-2-28 M. T. Abshaev, Mountain Geophysical Institute, pr. Lenina 2, Nalchik, Kabardino-Balkaria, 360004 Russia A. M. Abshaev, Mountain Geophysical Institute, pr. Lenina 2, Nalchik, Kabardino-Balkaria, 360004 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 2

Description:    Several carbon cycle models listed in the IPCC materials are used for assessing the atmospheric CO 2 response to various scenarios for the CO 2 anthropogenic emission into the atmosphere. The same materials present the Green function expressions of these models in terms of this exponential approximation, i.e., in the form of a sum of exponents. The uncertainties that occur when the Green function is substituted by its exponential approximation are investigated. The reason of such an analysis is a classic conclusion that a general problem of the exponential approximation refers to the class of inconsistent problems. Content Type Journal Article Pages 25-32 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911010043 Authors M. Ya. Antonovskii, Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Roshydromet and Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Glebovskaya 20b, Moscow, 107258 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 1

Description:    An average long-term distribution of temperature and salinity is analyzed for different months (May–November) computed on the basis of materials accumulated at standard oceanological sections of the northern part of the Tatar Strait. The main attention is paid to the section Korsakov Cape-Cape Syurkum crossing the water area under study practically in the middle. In early spring, the cold waters with salinity of more than 33‰ are registered at the section Korsakov Cape-Cape Syurkum. The waters with smaller salinity are revealed only in late spring, in June. In the same period, the intensification of cold intermediate layer occurs, first of all, in the western part of the section. The waters in the surface layer near the Sakhalin coast are warmed more than at the continental shelf. During the summer, this difference gradually decreases and the surface layer temperature becomes even in September. On the contrary, the spatial salinity gradients increase. In the fall, under the influence of northern and northwestern winds being typical of this period, the upwelling is formed near the Sakhalin coast and the cold dense waters emerge in the narrow coastal strip. The direction of alongshore flow changes from northern to the southern one. At the section Korsakov Cape-Cape Syurkum in November, the influence of small-salinity waters associated with the Amur River runoff is significantly revealed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 55-64 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911010080 Authors G. V. Shevchenko, Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Nauki 1B, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 693022 Russia E. A. Vilyanskaya, Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Baltiiskaya 43, Vladivostok, 690041 Russia V. N. Chastikov, Sakhalin Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography, ul. Komsomol’skaya 196, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 693023 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 1

Description:    The results are stated of estimation of short-range forecasting of heavy precipitation ( P ≥ 10 mm/12 hours) and strong wind at the height of 10 m ( V ≥ 10 m/s) using three nonhydrostatic models from the WRF family: ARW, ARW Glob, and NMM. The forecasts on the basis of all three models were carried out using two grids. The horizontal resolution of external grids varied from 9 to 16.5 km and that of the nested grids, from 3 to 5.5 km. For the ARW and NMM models, the values at side boundaries of external nested grids were taken from the forecasts on the basis of the global GFS NCEP model and for the ARW Glob model, from the global forecasts based on this model. The convection parameterization was turned off at nested grids for all models. The forecasts of heavy precipitation and strong wind at nested grids over the European territory of Russia were estimated from the radar and station measurements in summer 2008. It is obtained that all three models reproduce well enough the mesoscale convective systems and associated areas of heavy precipitation and strong wind but they have common shortcomings: they overestimate the amount and area of heavy precipitation and underestimate the strong wind speed. To a lesser degree, these shortcomings are typical of the ARW model. The possible reasons for systematic errors in the forecasts are discussed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911010018 Authors N. F. Vel’tishchev, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia V. D. Zhupanov, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia Yu. B. Pavlyukov, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 1

Description:    A one-dimensional model of fast ice wind-induced break-up developed before was adapted for two-dimensional case that enabled to explain many regularities of this phenomenon. A numerical scheme is proposed of the integration of the acting stresses and potential resistivity by the fast ice area as well as the method for taking into account the correlation between the wind direction and prevailing coastline orientation that enables to simulate practically any combination of tensile and shearing stresses in the basins of arbitrary shape. The seasonal variability of strengthening ice properties is taken into account. All numerical tests carried out within the frameworks of this investigation demonstrated the qualitative and, partly, quantitative similarity of computation results and regularities observed in nature. The model sensitivity to the variation of some parameters is studied. The limits of model applicability are discussed and the directions of further research are proposed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 65-71 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911010092 Authors S. V. Klyachkin, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, ul. Beringa 38, St. Petersburg, 199397 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 1

Description:    New data are obtained on cesium 137 contamination after the Chernobyl NPP accident of settlements, agricultural lands, and forest areas in four Russian regions most affected by the accident: the Bryansk, Kaluga, Orel, and Tula regions. The new information was used to qualify the database on radioactive contamination of these areas. The renewed database was used as a basis for compiling maps on the terrain contamination by cesium 137 in 2006 and a series of prognostic maps with a ten-year interval from 2016 to 2056. The assessment of the dynamics of a change in the zonal areas with different levels of contamination by cesium 137 and the time when the patterns of respective contamination levels disappear in these areas is specified. Content Type Journal Article Pages 817-822 DOI 10.3103/S1068373910120058 Authors E. V. Imshennik, Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Roshydromet and Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Glebovskaya 20b, Moscow, 107258 Russia E. V. Kvasnikova, Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Roshydromet and Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Glebovskaya 20b, Moscow, 107258 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 35 Journal Issue Volume 35, Number 12

Description:    The comparison is represented of the results of surface ozone concentration measurements in two megalopolises, Moscow and Kiev. A temporal course of ozone concentration and temperature in both cities is close by the shape and is typical of medium-polluted plain stations. In both megalopolises, two maxima are observed within the seasonal ozone concentration variability, in spring and summer, and during the day, a usual ozone concentration maximum (approximately in 2–3 hours after the local noon) and the night one being typical of big cities. An average ozone concentration and an average temperature in corresponding periods are higher in Kiev than in Moscow. Evidently, the summer maximum is associated with photochemical ozone generation processes, and the spring one, with dynamic processes of its transport in the atmosphere. In both megalopolises, the episodes are observed in the warm period under meteorological conditions being unfavorable for the pollutant scattering in the atmosphere when the ozone concentration exceeds the threshold limit value and is dangerous for health. The repeatability of such episodes is the highest one in July-August. In Kiev, such episodes are more frequent than in Moscow. An effective statistical model is constructed for both megalopolises in which the observed ozone concentration is represented in the form of regression function of temperature and relative humidity. Content Type Journal Article Pages 806-812 DOI 10.3103/S1068373910120034 Authors A. M. Zvyagintsev, Central Aerological Observatory, Pervomaiskaya ul. 3, Dolgoprudny, Moscow oblast, 141700 Russia I. B. Belikov, AOZT Atmosfera, Pyzhevskii per. 3, Moscow, 119017 Russia N. F. Elanskii, Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevskii per. 3, Moscow, 109017 Russia I. N. Kuznetsova, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 9-13, Moscow, 123242 Russia Ya. O. Romanyuk, Main Astronomical Observatory, National Academy of Sciences of the Ukraine, ul. Akademika Zabolotnogo 27, Kiev, 03680 Ukraine M. G. Sosonkin, Main Astronomical Observatory, National Academy of Sciences of the Ukraine, ul. Akademika Zabolotnogo 27, Kiev, 03680 Ukraine O. A. Tarasova, World Meteorological Organization, 7bis, avenue de la Paix, Case postale No. 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 35 Journal Issue Volume 35, Number 12

Description:    In the framework of a regional landslide susceptibility study in southern Sicily, a test has been carried out in the Tumarrano river basin (about 80 km 2 ) aimed at characterizing its landslide susceptibility conditions by exporting a “source model”, defined and trained inside a limited (about 20 km 2 ) representative sector (the “source area”). Also, the possibility of exploiting Google Earth ™ software and photo-images databank to produce the landslide archives has been checked. The susceptibility model was defined, according to a multivariate geostatistic approach based on the conditional analysis, using unique condition units (UCUs), which were obtained by combining four selected controlling factors: outcropping lithology, steepness, plan curvature and topographic wetness index. The prediction skill of the exported model, trained with 206 landslides, is compared with the one estimated for the whole studied area, by using a complete landslide archive (703 landslides), to see to what extent the largest time/money costs needed are accounted for. The investigated area stretches in the fore-deep sector of southern Sicily, where clayey rocks, mainly referring to the Numidian Flysch and the Terravecchia Formations, largely crop out. The results of the study confirm both the exploitability of Google Earth ™ to produce landslide archive and possibility to adopt in assessing the landslide susceptibility for large basin, a strategy based on the exportation of models trained in limited representative sectors. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9870-0 Authors D. Costanzo, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy C. Cappadonia, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy C. Conoscenti, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy E. Rotigliano, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes play significant role in the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). Several convection and PBL parameterization schemes incorporate these processes in the numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of performance of parameterization schemes is essential to customize a model. In this context, six combinations of physical parameterization schemes (2 PBL Schemes, YSU and MYJ, and 3 convection schemes, KF, BM, and GD) of WRF-ARW model are employed to obtain the optimum combination for the prediction of TCs over North Indian Ocean. Five cyclones are studied for sensitivity experiments and the out-coming combination is tested on real-time prediction of TCs during 2008. The tracks are also compared with those provided by the operational centers like NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO, NCMRWF, and IMD. It is found that the combination of YSU PBL scheme with KF convection scheme (YKF) provides a better prediction of intensity, track, and rainfall consistently. The average RMSE of intensity (13 hPa in CSLP and 11 m s −1 in 10-m wind), mean track, and landfall errors is found to be least with YKF combination. The equitable threat score (ETS) of YKF combination is more than 0.2 for the prediction of 24-h accumulated rainfall up to 125 mm. The vertical structural characteristics of cyclone inner core also recommend the YKF combination for Indian seas cyclones. In the real-time prediction of 2008 TCs, the 72-, 48-, and 24-h mean track errors are 172, 129, and 155 km and the mean landfall errors are 125, 73, and 66 km, respectively. Compared with the track of leading operational agencies, the WRF model is competing in 24 h (116 km error) and 72 h (166 km) but superior in 48-h (119 km) track forecast. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9862-0 Authors Krishna K. Osuri, Indian Institute of Technology, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 India U. C. Mohanty, Indian Institute of Technology, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 India A. Routray, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, A-50, Institutional Area, Sector-62, Noida, UP, India Makarand A. Kulkarni, Indian Institute of Technology, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 India M. Mohapatra, India Meteorological Department, Lodi Road, New Delhi, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Data are considered on samples taken during the 2006–2008 expeditions from the water and bottom sediments in the areas where chemical weapon was dumped in the Bornholm basin. Arsenic concentration is detected with the X-ray fluorescence analysis and inversion voltammetry. Results are under consideration of the enhanced arsenic content and their relation to arsenic-bearing toxic agents. It is pointed out that arsenic contamination is local in character and at present is of no serious hazard to the natural environment. Content Type Journal Article Pages 315-323 DOI 10.3103/S1068373911050050 Authors I. S. Khalikov, Taifun Scientific Industrial Association, pr. Lenina 82, Obninsk, Kaluga oblast, 249020 Russia Yu. I. Savin, Taifun Scientific Industrial Association, pr. Lenina 82, Obninsk, Kaluga oblast, 249020 Russia Journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Online ISSN 1934-8096 Print ISSN 1068-3739 Journal Volume Volume 36 Journal Issue Volume 36, Number 5

Description:    Anytime that tornadoes interface with people, the results are often grim. The varied characteristics of tornado windfields and the diverse techniques of home construction complicate the expected outcomes of such interactions. Since it is now known that tornadoes do not produce unfathomable winds, engineers have developed techniques for increasing a home’s tornado resistance; thus, increasing the odds of survival of the inhabitants. Even considering these advances, tornadoes still wreak havoc and cause much causality every year. The story of tornado survival is partly chance, partly knowledge, and partly science. This essay utilizes analogies between a popular motion picture and the state of the art of tornado-resistant construction to illustrate the good, the bad, and the ugly facts of tornado survival. First examined are the positive aspects of tornado probability. The odds of experiencing a tornado are so low that massive expenditures are not necessarily cost effective. Next, various techniques of tornado-resistant construction practices are included for new and existing structures. Introduction of equations for predicting debris penetration are compared with various building techniques to describe the viability of tornado protection. The negative aspect of tornado/structure interfaces describes the fact that despite contemporary construction and prevention exercise, the unpredictability of the tornado windfield causes tremendous damage and loss of life. The final section examines the interface between tornadoes and mobile homes. This proves very ugly in every aspect of the word. Statistics and equations confirm the inherent dangers of such an interaction. Also, described is a novel approach to the design of a portable tornado shelter. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9875-8 Authors Bobby G. McPeak, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA Atila Ertas, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Risk assessment of natural hazards is often based on the actual or forecast weather situation. For estimating such climate-related risks, it is important to obtain weather data as frequently as possible. One commonly used climate interpolation routine is DAYMET, which in its current form is not able to update its database for periods of less than a year. In this paper, we report the construction of a new climate database with a standard interface and implement a framework for providing daily updated weather data for online daily weather interpolations across regions. We re-implement the interpolation routines from DAYMET to be compliant with the data handling in the new framework. We determine the optimal number of stations used in two possible interpolation routines, assess the error bounds using an independent validation dataset and compare the results with a previous validation study based on the original DAYMET implementation. Mean absolute errors are 1°C for maximum and minimum temperature, 28 mm for precipitation, 3.2 MJ/m² for solar radiation and 1 hPa for vapour pressure deficit, which is in the range of the original DAYMET routine. Finally, we provide an example application of the methodology and derive a fire danger index for a 1 km grid over Austria. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9880-y Authors Richard Petritsch, Institute of Silviculture, BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Peter Jordan Str. 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria Hubert Hasenauer, Institute of Silviculture, BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Peter Jordan Str. 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Tropical cyclones are the most common natural disasters in coastal regions and are the most costly in terms of economic losses. Economic loss assessment is the basis for disaster prevention and alleviation and for insurance indemnification. We use data from 1970 to 2008 for Zhejiang Province, China, in this study evaluating economic losses. We convert direct economic losses from tropical cyclone disasters in Zhejiang Province into indices of direct economic losses. To establish our assessment model, we process disaster-inducing assessment factors, disaster-formative environments and disaster-affected bodies using the principal component analysis method, and we abstract the principal component as the input of a BP neural network model. We found in the actual assessments of five tropical cyclones affecting Zhejiang Province in 2007 and 2008 that the post-disaster loss assessment values of tropical cyclones were higher than the actual losses, but that for more severe storms, the gap was smaller. This reflects the beneficial effect of efforts toward disaster prevention and alleviation for severe tropical cyclones. Pre-assessments based on relatively accurate forecast values of wind and precipitation at the start of a tropical cyclone have been in accordance with the post-disaster assessment values, while the pre-assessment results using less accurate forecast values have been unsatisfactory. Therefore, this model can be applied in the actual assessment of direct economic loss from tropical cyclone damage, but increasingly accurate forecasting of wind and precipitation remains crucial to improving the accuracy of pre-assessments. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9881-x Authors Wei-ping Lou, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China Hai-yan Chen, Zhejiang Weather Station, Hangzhou, China Xin-fa Qiu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China Qi-yi Tang, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China Feng Zheng, Wenzhou Weather Bureau, Wenzhou, China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    High winds are one of the nation’s leading damage-producing storm conditions. They do not include winds from tornadoes, winter storms, nor hurricanes, but are strong winds generated by deep low pressure centers, by thunderstorms, or by air flow over mountain ranges. The annual average property and crop losses in the United States from windstorms are $379 million and windstorms during 1959–1997 caused an average of 11 deaths each year. Windstorms range in size from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands square kilometers, being largest in the western United States where 40% of all storms exceed 135,000 km 2 . In the eastern United States, windstorms occur at a given location, on average, 1.4 times a year, whereas in the western US point averages are 1.9. Midwestern states average between 15 and 20 wind storms annually; states in the east average between 10 and 25 storms per year; and West Coast states average 27–30 storms annually. Storms causing insured property losses 〉$1 million, labeled catastrophes, during 1952–2006 totaled 176, an annual average of 3.2. Catastrophic windstorm losses were highest in the West and Northwest climate regions, the only form of severe weather in the United States with maximum losses on the West Coast. Most western storms occurred in the winter, a result of Pacific lows, and California has had 31 windstorm catastrophes, more than any other state. The national temporal distribution of catastrophic windstorms during 1952–2006 has a flat trend, but their losses display a distinct upward trend with time, peaking during 1996–2006. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9828-2 Authors Stanley A. Changnon, Illinois State Water Survey, University of Illinois, 801 E. Buckthorn, Mahomet, IL 61853, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This paper discusses the characteristics of high-impact weather events based on available data during 1960–2009, including the frequency and extreme value of rainstorm, typhoon, thunderstorm, strong wind, tornado, fog, haze and hot days in Shanghai, China. The frequency and spatial distribution of meteorological disasters and their impacts on both human and property during 1984–2009 are also discussed. Examination of the frequency indicates a decreasing trend in the occurrence of typhoon, thunderstorm, strong wind, tornado and fog, and an increasing trend in the occurrence of rainstorm, haze and hot days. The number of casualties caused by meteorological disasters appears to show a slight decreasing trend while the value of direct economic loss is increasing slightly during 1984–2009, and the number of collapsed or damaged buildings and the area of affected crops have no significant trend in Shanghai. These results can be attributed to the great efforts for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters made by Shanghai government in recent 60 years. With global climate change, urbanization and rapid economic development, Shanghai has become more vulnerable to high-impact weather and meteorological disaster, especially precipitation extreme, summer high temperature, haze and typhoon, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of natural disasters are quite useful and necessary for local government and the public in the future. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9877-6 Authors Jun Shi, Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai, 200030 China Linli Cui, Shanghai Center for Satellite Remote Sensing and Application, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai, 201100 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Like in many other parts of the world, the glaciers in northern Tien Shan are receding, and the permafrost is thawing. Concomitantly, glacial lakes are developing. Historically, outbursts of these glacial lakes have resulted in severe hazards for infrastructures and livelihood. Multi-temporal space imageries are an ideal means to study and monitor glaciers and glacial lakes over large areas. Geomorphometric analysis and modelling allows to estimate the potential danger for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This paper presents a comprehensive approach by coupling of remote sensing, geomorphometric analyses aided with GIS modelling for the identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes. We suggest a classification scheme based on an additive ratio scale in order to prioritise sites for detailed investigations. The identification and monitoring of glacial lakes was carried out semi-automatically using band ratioing and the normalised difference water index (NDWI) based on multi-temporal space imagery from the years 1971 to 2008 using Corona, ASTER and Landsat data. The results were manually edited when required. The probability of the growth of a glacial lake was estimated by analysing glacier changes, glacier motion and slope analysis. A permafrost model was developed based on geomorphometric parameters, solar radiation and regionalised temperature conditions which permitted to assess the influence of potential permafrost thawing. Finally, a GIS-based model was applied to simulate the possibly affected area of lake outbursts. The findings of this study indicate an increasing number and area of glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan region. We identified several lakes with a medium to high potential for an outburst after a classification according to their outburst probability and their downstream impact. These lakes should be investigated more in detail. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-24 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9860-2 Authors Tobias Bolch, Geographisches Institut, Universität Zürich, 8059 Zürich, Switzerland Juliane Peters, Institut für Kartographie, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany Alexandr Yegorov, Institute of Geography of Ministry of Education and Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty, Kazakhstan Biswajeet Pradhan, Institut für Kartographie, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany Manfred Buchroithner, Institut für Kartographie, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany Victor Blagoveshchensky, Institute of Geography of Ministry of Education and Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty, Kazakhstan Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Landslides cause heavy damage to property and infrastructure, in addition to being responsible for the loss of human lives in many parts of the Turkey. The paper presents GIS-based spatial data analysis for landslide susceptibility mapping in the regions of the Sultan Mountains, West of Akşehir, and central part of Turkey. Landslides occur frequently in the area and seriously affect local living conditions. Therefore, spatial analysis of landslide susceptibility in the Sultan Mountains is important. The relationships between landslide distributions with the 19 landslide affecting parameters were analysed using a Bayesian model. In the study area, 90 landslides were observed. The landslides were randomly subdivided into 80 training landslides and 10 test landslides. A landslide susceptibility map was produced by using the training landslides. The test landslides were used in the accuracy control of the produced landslide susceptibility map. Approximately 9% of the study area was classified as high susceptibility zone. Medium, low and very low susceptibility zones covered 8, 23 and 60% of the study area, respectively. Most of the locations of the observed landslides actually fall into moderate (17.78%) and high (77.78. %) susceptibility zones of the produced landslide susceptibility map. This validates the applicability of proposed methods, approaches and the classification scheme. The high susceptibility zone is along both sides of the Akşehir Fault and at the north-eastern slope of the Sultan Mountains. It was determined that the surface area of the Harlak and Deresenek formations, which have attained lithological characteristics of clayey limestone with a broken and separated base, and where area landslides occur, possesses an elevation of 1,100–1,600 m, a slope gradient of 25°–35° and a slope aspect of 22.5°–157.5° facing slopes. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-35 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9853-1 Authors Adnan Ozdemir, Department of Geological Engineering, Selcuk University, Konya, Turkey Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description: Editorial for the special issue: vulnerability to natural hazards—the challenge of integration Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9825-5 Authors Sven Fuchs, Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Peter-Jordan-Str. 82, 1190 Wien, Austria Christian Kuhlicke, Department of Urban and Environmental Sociology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany Volker Meyer, Department of Economics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X