ALBERT

Description: This study evaluates the ability of the OVATION Prime auroral precipitation model to provide operational forecasts of the visible aurora. An operational implementation would primarily provide the general public with some guidance for viewing the aurora. We evaluate the likelihood that if aurorae are predicted to be visible at a location, they will be seen there within the hour. Nighttime model forecasts were validated with Polar Ultraviolet Imager data for Kp ≥ 3 and for the years 1997 and 1998. The overall forecasts for a visible aurora to occur or to not occur were correct 77% of the time. The most important prediction for public auroral viewing is that the visible aurora will occur, and these forecasts were correct 86% of the time.

Description: Extreme space weather conditions pose significant problems for standard space weather models, which are available for some limited realistic parameter ranges. As a good example, anomalous spikes of cosmic ray induced 10Be have been found during the Maunder Minimum (AD1645–1715) at the qA negative solar minima, which cannot be quantitatively explained by standard drift theories of cosmic ray transport alone. Such an extreme amplification of solar cycle modulation of cosmic rays is presumably related to the altered condition of heliospheric environment at the prolonged sunspot disappearance, providing a clue for comprehensive understandings of long-term changes in heliospheric environment, solar cycle modulation of cosmic rays, and the maximal range of incident cosmic ray flux that is very important for our practical space activities. Model sophistication to achieve precise forecast of such extreme condition of the heliosphere and the incoming cosmic ray flux is also of urgent need as the Sun is currently showing a tendency toward lower activity. Here we show that the cosmic ray spikes found at the Maunder Minimum may be explained by the contribution from the cross-sector transport mechanism working in the heliosheath where cosmic ray particles effectively drift across stacked magnetic sectors due to the larger cyclotron radius than the distance between the sectors. Based on the new interpretation of the 10Be record, we clarify potentially important problems for space weather modelers to help with more realistic modeling of the heliosphere during periods of extremely weak solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum.

Description: Focused Investigations of Relativistic Electron Burst Intensity, Range, and Dynamics (FIREBIRD), a space weather–targeted and goal-directed mission supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation, will launch into a high-inclination, low-Earth orbit in October 2013 as a secondary payload under NASA’s Educational Launch of Nanosatellites program. FIREBIRD is a dual CubeSat mission that is designed to resolve the spatial scale size and energy dependence of electron microbursts from the Van Allen radiation belts. The FIREBIRD mission embodies the CubeSat ideal: high scientific return provided at low cost through focused and novel investigation of an unexplored yet important phenomenon in a region easily accessed by nanosatellites.

Description: In this work a one-dimensional radial diffusion model for phase space density, together with observational satellite data, is used in an ensemble data assimilation with the purpose of accurately estimating Earth's radiation belt particle distribution. A particular concern in data assimilation for radiation belt models are model deficiencies, which can adversely impact the solution of the assimilation. To adequately address these deficiencies, a localized adaptive covariance inflation technique is implemented in the data assimilation to account for model uncertainty. Numerical results from identical-twin experiments, where data is generated from the same model, as well as the assimilation of real observational data, are presented. The results show improvement in the predictive skill of the model solution due to the proper inclusion of model errors in the data assimilation.

Description: Geomagnetic field data with high time resolution (typically 1 s) have recently become more commonly acquired by ground stations. Such high time resolution data enable identifying Pi2 pulsations which have periods of 40–150 s and irregular (damped) waveforms. It is well-known that pulsations of this type are clearly observed at mid- and low-latitude ground stations on the nightside at substorm onset. Therefore, with 1-s data from multiple stations distributed in longitude around the Earth's circumference, substorm onset can be regularly monitored. In the present study we propose a new substorm index, the Wp index (Wave and planetary), which reflects Pi2 wave power at low-latitude, using geomagnetic field data from 11 ground stations. We compare the Wp index with the AE and ASY indices as well as the electron flux and magnetic field data at geosynchronous altitudes for 11 March 2010. We find that significant enhancements of the Wp index mostly coincide with those of the other data. Thus the Wp index can be considered a good indicator of substorm onset. The Wp index, other geomagnetic indices, and geosynchronous satellite data are plotted in a stack for quick and easy search of substorm onset. The stack plots and digital data of the Wp index are available at the Web site (http://s-cubed.info) for public use. These products would be useful to investigate and understand space weather events, because substorms cause injection of intense fluxes of energetic electrons into the inner magnetosphere and potentially have deleterious impacts on satellites by inducing surface charging.

Description: Almost 150 scientists, engineers, policy makers, and industry leaders from more than 20 countries met at the Electric Infrastructure Security (EIS) summit meeting in London to iron out recommendations on how to potentially protect power grid infrastructure in the event of an extreme space weather event.

Description: With the 2013 solar maximum nearing, researchers and government agencies are focusing on how the increased solar activity could affect our increasingly technological society and what measures can be taken to help prevent or mitigate any threats to the electricity grid, GPS, and other potentially vulnerable technological soft spots.

Description: Thematic maps are arrays of labels, or “themes,” associated with discrete locations in space and time. Borrowing heavily from the terrestrial remote sensing discipline, a numerical technique based on Bayes' theorem captures operational expertise in the form of trained theme statistics, then uses this to automatically assign labels to solar image pixels. Ultimately, regular thematic maps of the solar corona will be generated from high-cadence, high-resolution SUVI images, the solar ultraviolet imager slated to fly on NOAA's next-generation GOES-R series of satellites starting ∼2016. These thematic maps will not only provide quicker, more consistent synoptic views of the sun for space weather forecasters, but digital thematic pixel masks (e.g., coronal hole, active region, flare, etc.), necessary for a new generation of operational solar data products, will be generated. This paper presents the mathematical underpinnings of our thematic mapper, as well as some practical algorithmic considerations. Then, using images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Advanced Imaging Array (AIA) as test data, it presents results from validation experiments designed to ascertain the robustness of the technique with respect to differing expert opinions and changing solar conditions.

Description: The 50th anniversary of the launch of the first active communications satellite, the Telstar satellite, was marked 10 July 2012. The successful operation of Telstar during its almost 6-month life registered several firsts, as emphasized by President John F. Kennedy in an announcement that also bore evidence of the central role played by the Cold War in U.S. foreign policy at the beginning of the space age.

Description: This spring, Florida held the nation’s first statewide emergency preparedness training and exercises geared specifically to the aftermath of severe geomagnetic events. Funded by the State of Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) via a Department of Energy grant and held in collaboration with Watch House International, Inquesta Corporation, and the Florida Institute of Technology, the 17–19 April 2012 workshop had 99 on-site attendees in an oceanfront hotel in Melbourne, Florida, as well as 16 over live Web streaming. The workshop was the capstone to a three-month season of 21 regional space weather training sessions and workshops serving 386 attendees in total.

Description: Tasked by the Department of Homeland Security, JASON [2011] recently published a study that assesses the likelihood of a so-called “Kappenman worst-case scenario” focusing on space weather effects on the electrical grid.

Description: The Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere electrodynamics model (CTIPe) has proven to be a valuable ionospheric research tool. Improving our knowledge of systematic and seasonal model biases is necessary if further improvements are to be made. This paper presents the next step in our verification and validation effort and in developing a standardized analysis methodology. A semi-automated software part of the near-real-time-run of CTIPe is described and results derived from its usage are presented. Model limitations and biases are detailed for the electron density profile peak (NmF2) and its corresponding height (hmF2). Model performance for hmF2 is constant throughout the whole year, with an average 10% deviation from observed values. There is a strong seasonal variation for NmF2, with greater deviations from the observed trends during summer. This effect seems to have latitude dependence, although the gaps in the available data do not allow for an exact determination of its nature.

Description: Beginning his career on the heels of the 1957–1958 International Geophysical Year and the dawn of the satellite era, Joe H. Allen entered the service of the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey in 1963. Earning a master’s of science in engineering from the University of California at Berkeley while working for the Geodetic Survey, Allen advanced within a department that evolved into the National Geophysical Data Center, a branch of NOAA. Allen earned a Department of Commerce award in 1978 and in 1981 became the chief of the Solar and Terrestrial Physics Division of the National Geophysical Data Center, a position from which he retired in 1994.

Description: Delta Airlines had an unprecedented experience in 2011: For the first time, a flight was rerouted because of space weather activity. Flight 189 from Detroit, Mich., to Beijing, China, had to reroute due to solar activity that occurred 24–28 September 2011. Over the last decade most airlines that fly routes across the North Pole region have had diversions as a result of solar activity. As cross-polar air traffic increases, standing at 10,993 one-way crossings in 2011, the aviation industry is becoming more aware of the impacts that space weather can have on operations, communications, and navigation, as well as the issue of increased radiation exposure for passengers and flight crew on board.

Description: How can we continue to advance the space weather operational community from lessons already learned when it comes to data reliability, maintainability, accessibility, dependability, safety, and quality? How can we make space weather more easily accessible to each other and outside users? Representatives from operational, commercial, academic, and government organizations weighed in on these important questions at the second annual Space Weather Community Operations Workshop, held 22–23 March 2012 in Park City, Utah, with the unofficial workshop motto being Don’t Reinvent the Wheel.

Description: Space weather forecasting is still in its infancy, but there have been enormous advances in the past 15 years. First-principles and physics-based models are now assimilating data, providing forecasts and “nowcasts” of space weather conditions surrounding Earth. Space weather products for end users are growing in sophistication and utility and are often accompanied by useful visual displays [Simpson, 2004]. Several sources of space weather forecasts exist today, including research products and operational forecasts from civilian and Department of Defense sources.

Description: In recent years, the expression “solar storm” has become popular in China, but many Chinese do not realize that solar storms are very different from storms on Earth. As solar physicists and members of the Regional Warning Center China (RWCC) of International Space Environment Services (ISES), we frequently encounter the question “What is a solar storm?” In order to properly respond to the customers of the RWCC, we investigated the historical evolution of the term “solar storm.”

Description: Rapid fluctuations in the amplitude and phase of a transionospheric radio signal caused by small scale plasma density irregularities in the ionosphere are known as scintillation. Scintillation can seriously impair a GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) receiver tracking performance, thus affecting the required levels of availability, accuracy and integrity, and consequently the reliability of modern day GNSS based applications. This paper presents an analysis of correlation between scintillation levels and tracking performance of a GNSS receiver for GPS L1C/A, L2C and GLONASS L1, L2 signals. The analyses make use of data recorded over Presidente Prudente (22.1°S, 51.4°W, dip latitude ∼12.3°S) in Brazil, a location close to the Equatorial Ionisation Anomaly (EIA) crest in Latin America. The study presents for the first time this type of correlation analysis for GPS L2C and GLONASS L1, L2 signals. The scintillation levels are defined by the amplitude scintillation index, S4 and the receiver tracking performance is evaluated by the phase tracking jitter. Both S4 and the phase tracking jitter are estimated from the post correlation In-Phase (I) and Quadra-Phase (Q) components logged by the receiver at a high rate. Results reveal that the dependence of the phase tracking jitter on the scintillation levels can be represented by a quadratic fit for the signals. The results presented in this paper are of importance to GNSS users, especially in view of the forthcoming high phase of solar cycle 24 (predicted for 2013).

Description: We develop a technique to predict geomagnetic storm magnitudes (peak Dst values) several hours in advance using the first indications of extreme solar wind conditions, as well as an assumption of constant driving function V Bs. For larger storms with clear V Bs jump we predict lower and upper limits of expected peak Dst. For smaller storms and storms with gradually increasing V Bs we predict Dst several hours ahead. The data from 1995–2010 were used to design the technique. The actual advance time of reliable forecasts (before the peak value is reached) is on average 5–6 hours, illustrating the realistic horizon of such “constant input” assumption. Larger storms are developing faster and thus are better predicted. False warnings (predictions more than 25% larger than the actual peak) occur in about 10% of events. The algorithm is implemented in real-time in Space Research Institute, Moscow (www.spaceweather.ru).

Description: Space weather occupied an important place in AGU’s inaugural Science Policy Conference (http://sites.agu.org/spconference/). The conference was held 30 April to 2 May in Washington, D. C., with four tracks—the Arctic, natural hazards, natural resources, and oceans—and space weather rightly occupied a slot in the natural hazards track.

Description: As evidenced by the variety of papers submitted to this journal on the subject, space weather influences on electric grid systems around the world have been attracting increasing interest as solar cycle 24 continues to evolve. The paper by K. F. Forbes and O. C. St. Cyr contained in this issue of Space Weather Quarterly (and published earlier in the online Space Weather journal) is an example of such examinations of electric power systems. Using variations of the geomagnetic field as a proxy for geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in an eastern U.S. electric grid, these authors find through a sophisticated statistical study that operations of the PJM Interconnection regional transmission organization were “challenged by geomagnetic activity” during solar cycle 23. Evidently the control systems in place by the transmission organization adjusted for grid effects that were apparently caused by GICs, even those of low magnitude.

Description: Using the geomagnetic records of Ebro geomagnetic observatory and taking the plane wave assumption for the external current source and a homogeneous Earth conductivity, a prediction of the effects of the geomagnetic activity on the Catalonian (northeastern Spain) power transmission system has been developed. Although the area is located at midlatitudes, determination of the geoelectric field on the occasion of the largest geomagnetic storms during the last solar cycles indicates amplitudes that are higher than those recorded in southern Africa, where some transformer failures on large transmission systems have been reported. A DC network model of the grid has been constructed, and the geomagnetically induced current (GIC) flows in the power network have been calculated for such extreme events using the electric field at Ebro as a regional proxy. In addition, GICs have been measured at one transformer neutral earthing of the power grid, so that there the accuracy of the model has been assessed. Although the agreement is quite satisfactory, results indicate that better knowledge of the ground conductivity structure is needed. This represents the first attempt to study and measure GICs in southern European power grids, a region considered to have low GIC-risk up to the present.

Description: An interdisciplinary and international group of subject matter experts and societal stakeholders came together on 15–16 October 2011 to participate in the Space Weather Risks and Society workshop held at the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC). The 2-day workshop was co-sponsored by ARC, the Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center (LMATC), NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), and the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), which is operated by the U.K. Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC). The 66 workshop participants included representatives from government, industry, and academia.

Description: We describe a practical system for forecasting peak intensity and fluence of solar energetic protons in the tens to hundreds of MeV energy range. The system could be useful for forecasting radiation hazard, because peak intensity and fluence are closely related to the medical physics quantities peak dose rate and total dose. The method uses a pair of ground-based detectors located at the South Pole to make a measurement of the solar particle energy spectrum at relativistic (GeV) energies, and it then extrapolates this spectrum downward in energy to make a prediction of the peak intensity and fluence at lower energies. A validation study based upon 12 large solar particle events compared the prediction with measurements made aboard GOES spacecraft. This study shows that useful predictions (logarithmic correlation greater than 50%) can be made down to energies of 40–80 MeV (GOES channel P5) in the case of peak intensity, with the prediction leading the observation by 166 min on average. For higher energy GOES channels, the lead times are shorter, but the correlation coefficients are larger.

Description: Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) flowing in long conductor systems on the ground are a well-known space weather hazard. We develop a new approach to simulating GICs by combining a global MHD model with a local one-dimensional method. As an example, we apply this approach to model the GIC at the Pirttikoski 400 kV transformer of the Finnish high-voltage power system during the space weather event of 22–23 September 1999. The modeled results can capture the main observational features, and the model performances is better than two GIC persistence models, which demonstrates this promising new approach in GIC forecasting.

Description: We have improved our space weather forecasting algorithms to now predict Dst and AE in addition to Kp for up to 6 h of forecast times. These predictions can be accessed in real time at http://mms.rice.edu/realtime/forecast.html. In addition, in the event of an ongoing or imminent activity, e-mail “alerts” based on key discriminator levels have been going out to our subscribers since October 2003. The neural network–based algorithms utilize ACE data to generate full 1, 3, and 6 h ahead predictions of these indices from the Boyle index, an empirical approximation that estimates the Earth's polar cap potential using solar wind parameters. Our models yield correlation coefficients of over 0.88, 0.86, and 0.83 for 1 h predictions of Kp, Dst, and AE, respectively, and 0.86, 0.84, and 0.80 when predicting the same but 3 h ahead. Our 6 h ahead predictions, however, have slightly higher uncertainties. Furthermore, the paper also tests other solar wind functions—the Newell driver, the Borovsky control function, and adding solar wind pressure term to the Boyle index—for their ability to predict geomagnetic activity.

Description: The feature-based Bayesian method previously developed by Chen et al. (1996, 1997) to predict the occurrence, severity, and duration of large geomagnetic storms has been run on a daily basis on the Wind/Magnetic Fields Investigation (MFI) data from January 1996 until March 2010. The algorithm uses as input real-time solar wind magnetic field data obtained at the L1 Lagrange point, and the output is the probability prediction of the magnetic field structure of the upstream solar wind that has yet to arrive, and its geoeffectiveness, where geoeffectiveness is measured by the traditional Dst index. The performance characteristics of the method are evaluated using a four-level contingency table: nonstorm disturbances (−80 nT

Description: The space weather service enterprise is growing around the globe. This is being driven by the increasing need to mitigate the impacts of space weather, which affect our economic and security infrastructures both in space and on the ground. Many counties are initiating new programs to deliver space weather services while others are expanding their efforts. Within the U.S., the number of both domestic and foreign customers of NOAA's space weather products has been growing steadily [Figure 1]. The subscription service for NOAA's space weather alerts and warnings was initiated in 2005, and today, roughly 25% of the subscribers are outside the U.S.

Description: Recognizing the need to raise awareness of the risk of severe space-weather impacts on critical infrastructures, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), in collaboration with the Directorate-General Enterprise and Industry, organized the Space-Weather Awareness Dialogue, a high-level event held in Brussels, Belgium, on 25–26 October 2011. The dialogue sought to highlight the potential effects of extreme space weather on technological infrastructures both in space and on the ground; to identify related scientific, operational, and policy challenges for disaster prevention, preparedness, and response; and to recommend actions that will reduce the vulnerability of critical infrastructures.

Description: A series of 100-year extreme geoelectric field and geomagnetically induced current (GIC) scenarios are explored by taking into account the key geophysical factors associated with the geomagnetic induction process. More specifically, we derive explicit geoelectric field temporal profiles as a function of ground conductivity structures and geomagnetic latitudes. We also demonstrate how the extreme geoelectric field scenarios can be mapped into GIC. Generated statistics indicate 20 V/km and 5 V/km 100-year maximum 10-s geoelectric field amplitudes at high-latitude locations with poorly conducting and well-conducting ground structures, respectively. We show that there is an indication that geoelectric field magnitudes may experience a dramatic drop across a boundary at about 40°–60° of geomagnetic latitude. We identify this as a threshold at about 50° of geomagnetic latitude. The sub-threshold geoelectric field magnitudes are about an order of magnitude smaller than those at super-threshold geomagnetic latitudes. Further analyses are required to confirm the existence and location of the possible latitude threshold. The computed extreme GIC scenarios can be used in further engineering analyses that are needed to quantify the geomagnetic storm impact on conductor systems such as high-voltage power transmission systems. To facilitate further work on the topic, the digital data for generated geoelectric field scenarios are made publicly available.

Description: During solar cycle 22, a very intense geomagnetic storm on 13 March 1989 contributed to the collapse of the Hydro-Quebec power system in Canada. This event clearly demonstrated that geomagnetic storms have the potential to lead to blackouts. This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged power system reliability during solar cycle 23. Operations by PJM Interconnection, LLC (hereafter PJM), a regional transmission organization in North America, are examined over the period 1 April 2002 through 30 April 2004. During this time PJM coordinated the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia in the United States. We examine the relationship between a proxy of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and a metric of challenged reliability. In this study, GICs are proxied using magnetometer data from a geomagnetic observatory located just outside the PJM control area. The metric of challenged reliability is the incidence of out-of-economic-merit order dispatching due to adverse reactive power conditions. The statistical methods employed make it possible to disentangle the effects of GICs on power system operations from purely terrestrial factors. The results of the analysis indicate that geomagnetic activity can significantly increase the likelihood that the system operator will dispatch generating units based on system stability considerations rather than economic merit.

Description: Accurate modeling of thermospheric mass density variation is of foremost importance to low Earth orbital prediction. The accuracy of empirical neutral density models based on global indices for solar and geomagnetic activity is inherently limited by the resolution of these indices. Assimilative modeling is appealing, as it provides a means to systematically identify and correct the inconsistencies between model specification and observations. In this paper we present a practical assimilative mass density specification methodology that optimally combines the mass density prediction by the Coupled-Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Plasmasphere-electrodynamics (CTIPe) model with in-situ observations of neutral mass density by research satellites such as Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). The methodology yields an analysis of the global density according to Bayes's rule under the assumption of Gaussian prior and observation error distribution (namely, by using the Optimal Interpolation or Kalman Filter update formula). To make best use of under-sampled global neutral mass density observations, the background (prior) error covariance is built on the principal component analysis to represent the long-distance correlation effectively, with an adaptive capability by using the maximum-likelihood method. The neutral mass density specification at 400 km can be improved up to 50% beyond what has been attained by the CTIPe by assimilating CHAMP and GRACE density observations.

Description: Recognizing the need to raise awareness of the risk of severe space-weather impacts on critical infrastructures, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), in collaboration with the Directorate-General Enterprise and Industry, organized the Space-Weather Awareness Dialogue, a high-level event held in Brussels, Belgium, on 25–26 October 2011. The dialogue sought to highlight the potential effects of extreme space weather on technological infrastructures both in space and on the ground; to identify related scientific, operational, and policy challenges for disaster prevention, preparedness, and response; and to recommend actions that will reduce the vulnerability of critical infrastructures.

Description: The primary operational impact of upper atmospheric neutral density variability is on satellite drag. Drag is the most difficult force to model mainly because of the complexity of neutral atmosphere variations driven by solar UV and EUV radiation power, magnetospheric energy input, and the propagation from below of lower atmosphere waves. Taking into account the self-consistent interactions between neutral winds, composition, ion drifts, and ionization densities, first-principles models are able to provide a more realistic representation of neutral density than empirical models in the upper atmosphere. Their largest sources of uncertainty, however, are the semiannual variations in neutral density and the magnitude, spatial distribution, and temporal evolution of the magnetospheric energy input. In this study, results from the physics-based coupled thermosphere-ionosphere-plasmasphere electrodynamics (CTIPe) model and measurements from the CHAMP satellite are compared and used to improve the modeled thermospheric neutral density estimates. The good agreement between modeled and observed densities over an uninterrupted yearlong period of variable conditions gives confidence that the thermosphere-ionosphere system energy influx from solar radiation and magnetospheric sources is reasonable and that Joule heating, the dominant source during geomagnetically disturbed conditions, is appropriately estimated. On the basis of the correlation between neutral density and energy injection, a global time-dependent Joule heating index (JHI) is derived from the relationship between Joule heating computed by the CTIPe model and neutral density measured by the CHAMP satellite. Preliminary results show an improvement in density estimates using CTIPe JHI, demonstrating its potential for neutral density modeling applied to atmospheric drag determination.

Description: In early 2013, AGU will begin accepting nominations for a new award that recognizes excellence in research involving space weather as well as nonlinear waves and processes. The award, called the Space Weather and Nonlinear Waves and Processes Prize, will be given every 2 years and will alternate in focus. The first award, to be presented at AGU’s 2013 Fall Meeting, will recognize an outstanding contribution to space weather research made by an AGU member; the second award, to be presented in 2015, will recognize a significant contribution to the field of nonlinear waves and processes by an AGU member. AGU’s Space Physics and Aeronomy Section and the Nonlinear Geophysics Focus Group, will jointly administer the award.

Description: A method to estimate the total fluence of solar flare neutrons at a spacecraft traveling in the innermost part of the heliosphere (at heliocentric radial distances of

Description: Small businesses have long been interested in providing space weather services to government and industry. Representatives from many of these entrepreneurial enterprises meet informally at the annual workshop sponsored by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). There they have the opportunity to discuss with SWPC leadership the obstacles they face when designing and delivering data and products for use in ground- and space-based technical systems. In April 2011, five of these small businesses formed the American Commercial Space Weather Association (ACSWA), and the importance of this action was commented on in this column (see Space Weather, 9, S05002, doi:10.1029/2011SW000692).

Description: By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and 〉30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst 〈 −850 nT) occurring within the next decade is ∼12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

Description: A new method is presented here to forecast the solar 10.7 cm (2.8 GHz) radio flux, abbreviated F10.7, utilizing advanced predictions of the global solar magnetic field generated by a flux transport model. Using indices derived from the absolute value of the solar magnetic field, we find good correlation between the observed photospheric magnetic activity and the observed F10.7 values. Comparing magnetogram data observed within 6 hours of the F10.7 measurements during the years 1993 through 2010, the Spearman correlation coefficient, rs, for an empirical model of F10.7 is found to be 0.98. In addition, we find little change in the empirical model coefficients and correlations between the first and second 9 year intervals of the 18 year period investigated. By evolving solar magnetic synoptic maps forward 1–7 days, this new method provides a realistic estimation of the Earth-side solar magnetic field distribution used to forecast F10.7. Spearman correlation values of approximately 0.97, 0.95, and 0.93 are found for 1 day, 3 day, and 7 day forecasts, respectively. The method presented here can be expanded to forecast other space weather parameters, e.g., total solar irradiance and extreme ultraviolet flux. In addition, near-term improvements to the F10.7 forecasting method, e.g., including far-side magnetic data with solar magnetic flux transport, are discussed.

Description: In the event of a space weather event of national scope and impact, there is a structure responsible for coordinating the nation's response. The political landscape is complex, including not only federal, State and local governments, but also the public, media, academia, and the private sector. Key federal guidance documents include the Stafford Act, Homeland Security Presidential Directives and Presidential Policy Directives on national preparedness. These directives establish a systematic, proactive approach to guide departments and agencies to work together to prevent, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate the impact of disasters. The recent National Preparedness directive is further emphasizing an integrated all-hazard response. The main roles of the space weather community will be to communicate, without undo hype, the potential threat posed by severe space weather events and to provide alerts, warnings, and general space situation awareness to the decision makers. It is important that the space weather community deliver a coordinated and consistent message using all available public media to appropriately communicate the risk.

Description: The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) was developed to provide accurate, global specification of the Earth's radiation belts and to better understand the physical processes that control radiation belt structure and dynamics. DREAM is designed using a modular software approach in order to provide a computational framework that makes it easy to change components such as the global magnetic field model, radiation belt dynamics model, boundary conditions, etc. This paper provides a broad overview of the DREAM model and a summary of some of the principal results to date. We describe the structure of the DREAM model, describe the five major components, and illustrate the various options that are available for each component. We discuss how the data assimilation is performed and the data preprocessing and postprocessing that are required for producing the final DREAM outputs. We describe how we apply global magnetic field models for conversion between flux and phase space density and, in particular, the benefits of using a self-consistent, coupled ring current–magnetic field model. We discuss some of the results from DREAM including testing of boundary condition assumptions and effects of adding a source term to radial diffusion models. We also describe some of the testing and validation of DREAM and prospects for future development.

Description: Throughout time humans have been born with the curiosity to explore. Crossing the oceans on Earth to those in interplanetary space, the motivations behind exploration by humanity have not changed profoundly during these last five centuries. Some of the obstacles that were met by the explorers in the past and those that we will encounter in the future are similar, funding issues being one such topic. However, obstacles regarding the environmental conditions that will be encountered in interplanetary space are very different from those found on Earth. Indeed, the space weather that presides in interplanetary space is unlike anything we are familiar with in our daily lives. However, be it an ocean storm or a solar storm, the objective remains the same - to understand and protect the transportation device and the crew against the environment that it will encounter.

Description: The third adiabatic invariant L* plays an important role in modeling and understanding the radiation belt dynamics. The typical way to numerically calculate the L* value follows the method described by Roederer (1970), which is just a line integration method that is computationally slow and expensive. This work describes the application of an artificial neural network technique to a series of magnetospheric field models for calculating L* values in microseconds instead of seconds without losing significant accuracy, thereby delivering to the radiation belt community various L* neural networks. These neural networks will enable comprehensive solar-cycle long studies of radiation belt processes and can also help the development of operational radiation belt models because of the speed in calculating L*. The main focus of this work is to test the applicability of each L* neural network, an aspect not addressed in the previous studies, under different interplanetary and magnetospheric conditions. Specifically, we describe the conditions when the neural network is providing a good approximation to the full numerical calculation of L* and when the traditional but more time-consuming method should be used. These L* neural networks are available for download at http://lanlstar.net.

Description: “Future Global Shocks: Geomagnetic Storms,” a report authored by CENTRA Technology, Inc., on behalf of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, analyzes the risks of extreme space weather events in terms of economic, psychological, and social consequences. The report was released in January 2011 and is available at http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/57/25/46891645.pdf. The document also contributes to the Future Global Shocks initiative of the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This initiative is intended to identify strengths, weaknesses, and gaps in current international risk-management practices associated with natural events.

Description: The availability of unprecedented amounts of real-time data from Global Navigation Satellite Systems and ionosondes coupled with new and more stringent requirements for specification and forecast of the neutral and electron densities in the thermosphere-ionosphere system are driving a new wave of development in data assimilation schemes for the thermosphere and ionosphere. However, such schemes require accurate knowledge of any biases affecting the state-propagating models, and characterizing such biases involves significant effort. A first step in the estimation of the model biases, a steady state neutral temperature comparison with the empirical Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter model, was published in Space Weather in 2008. Here we present another step in the validation of the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (CTIPe) general circulation model in preparation for its future inclusion in a data assimilation scheme. We describe an implementation of the model at the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and present real-time comparisons between CTIPe and GPS total electron content and F2 layer ionosonde measurements. The CTIPe results are generated automatically about 20 min ahead of real time. The model inputs are based on NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer and F10.7 data available in the SWPC database. The results and the comparison with measurements for the current 2-week period are available at http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ctipe/. The results are quite encouraging and offer hope that physics-based models can compete with empirical models during quiet times and have tremendous potential to provide more reliable forecasts during periods of geomagnetic disturbance.

Description: High-speed solar wind streams modify the Earth's geomagnetic environment, perturbing the ionosphere, modulating the flux of cosmic rays into the Earth atmosphere, and triggering substorms. Such activity can affect modern technological systems. To investigate the potential for predicting the arrival of such streams at Earth, images taken by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) on the STEREO-A spacecraft have been used to identify the onsets of high-speed solar wind streams from observations of regions of increased plasma concentrations associated with corotating interaction regions, or CIRs. In order to confirm that these transients were indeed associated with CIRs and to study their average properties, arrival times predicted from the HI images were used in a superposed epoch analysis to confirm their identity in near-Earth solar wind data obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft and to observe their influence on a number of salient geophysical parameters. The results are almost identical to those of a parallel superposed epoch analysis that used the onset times of the high-speed streams derived from east/west deflections in the ACE measurements of solar wind speed to predict the arrival of such streams at Earth, assuming they corotated with the Sun with a period of 27 days. Repeating the superposed epoch analysis using restricted data sets demonstrates that this technique can provide a timely prediction of the arrival of CIRs at least 1 day ahead of their arrival at Earth and that such advanced warning can be provided from a spacecraft placed 40° ahead of Earth in its orbit.

Description: In this paper, the effects of the assumptions made in the calculation of the Dst index with regard to longitude sampling, hemisphere bias, and latitude correction are explored. The insights gained from this study will allow operational users to better understand the local implications of the Dst index and will lead to future index formulations that are more physically motivated. We recompute the index using 12 longitudinally spaced low-latitude stations, including the traditional 4 (in Honolulu, Kakioka, San Juan, and Hermanus), and compare it to the standard United States Geological Survey definitive Dst. We look at the hemisphere balance by comparing stations at equal geomagnetic latitudes in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. We further separate the 12-station time series into two hemispheric indices and find that there are measurable differences in the traditional Dst formulation due to the undersampling of the Southern Hemisphere in comparison with the Northern Hemisphere. To analyze the effect of latitude correction, we plot latitudinal variation in a disturbance observed during the year 2005 using two separate longitudinal observatory chains. We separate these by activity level and find that while the traditional cosine form fits the latitudinal distributions well for low levels of activity, at higher levels of disturbance the cosine form does not fit the observed variation. This suggests that the traditional latitude scaling is insufficient during active times. The effect of the Northern Hemisphere bias and the inadequate latitude scaling is such that the standard correction underestimates the true disturbance by 10–30 nT for storms of main phase magnitude deviation greater than 150 nT in the traditional Dst index.

Description: The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model has been widely adopted as the international standard for specifying ionospheric parameters. An evaluation on the performance of the IRI model (version 2007) over Nsukka, Nigeria (Geographic: 6.87°N, 7.38°E; Geomagnetic: 8.47°N, 81.07°E) is presented in this work. We compare Total Electron Content (TEC) values for year 2010 from the IRI model with corresponding TEC data from the SCINDA (Scintillation Network Decision Aid) GPS receiver installed at Nsukka so as to evaluate the performance of the model over the Nsukka region. Given the proliferation of dual-frequency GPS receivers over the African continent, data from these equipment is proposed for use in TEC modeling over the continent together with the IRI model. Knowledge on the performance of the IRI over various regions of the continent will inform the extent to which the model will be used. The development of more accurate TEC maps find useful applications in enhancing the extent to which ionospheric influences on radio signals (as in single frequency GPS receivers) are corrected. Our results show very good diurnal correlations (above 0.88) between the IRI-TEC predictions and the GPS-TEC measurements for the days examined, and so reveal the potential of the IRI model as a good candidate for an enhanced TEC modeling over the African region.

Description: The consecutive failures of the geosynchronous Anik-E1 communication satellite on January 20, 1994, and Anik-E2 about nine hours later on January 21 (both incidents occurred on January 20 local time) received considerable publicity because the malfunctions of the satellites disrupted television and computer data transmissions across Canada, as well as telephone services to remote northern communities for hours. This often-cited event is revisited here with materials not covered before. Using publicly available information, Anik-E failure details, media coverage, recovery effort and cost incurred are first presented. This is then followed by scrutiny of space weather conditions pertinent to the occurrences of the Anik-E upsets. We trace the space weather episode's inception on the Sun, propagation through interplanetary medium, and manifestation in magnetic field variations as well as in energetic electron flux increases, and its eventual impact on the Anik-Es. The genesis of the energetic electron enhancements that have been blamed for the satellite malfunctions is thus traceable via high-speed solar wind stream with Alfven wave fluctuations to a longitudinally wide coronal hole on the Sun. Furthermore, strong magnetic pulsations preceding electron flux peaks indicate Pc5 ULF (Ultra Low Frequency) waves as a probable acceleration mechanism for the energetic electron flux enhancement that resulted in the internal charging of the Anik-Es. The magnetic fluctuations may even be possible triggers for the subsequent discharge that caused the satellites to malfunction. This incident illustrates that satellite operators should be on alert for elevated high-energy electron environment that is above established thresholds, as specifications in satellite design may not render a satellite immune from internal charging.

Description: In the present paper we discuss the setup and the results of series of numerical experiments aiming to recover the E→×B→ plasma drift and neutral wind velocities using the Ensemble Square Root Filter together with the ionospheric numerical model. One of the objectives of the current research was assessing the performance of the upper atmosphere state and parameter ensemble estimation technique in the framework of the Observational System Simulation Experiment (OSSE). The other purpose was to improve calculation accuracy for the major driving forces in the ionosphere and to increase modeling reliability in real-data operational cases. In the current paper we describe the setup of the modeling system used to obtain the presented results. In the first section we introduce the background physics-based model used in the simulations and discuss its main assumptions along with E→×B→ drift and the neutral wind velocity calculation algorithms. Further we present the observations simulation system and describe the data used for assimilation and parameter estimation. We also provide a brief description of the Ensemble Square Root Filter and its application in the current study. In the last few sections the results of the numerical experiments are presented and discussed.

Description: Federally funded space weather information, services, and activities are now being linked through the National Space Weather Portal, an authoritative, collaborative resource for national space weather scientific data and services.

Description: Since the first satellites entered Earth orbit in the late 1950's and early 1960's, the influences of solar and geomagnetic variability on the satellite drag environment have been studied, and parameterized in empirical density models with increasing sophistication. However, only within the past 5 years has the realization emerged that “troposphere weather” contributes significantly to the “space weather” of the thermosphere, especially during solar minimum conditions. Much of the attendant variability is attributable to upward-propagating solar tides excited by latent heating due to deep tropical convection, and solar radiation absorption primarily by water vapor and ozone in the stratosphere and mesosphere, respectively. We know that this tidal spectrum significantly modifies the orbital (〉200 km) and reentry (60–150 km) drag environments, and that these tidal components induce longitude variability not yet emulated in empirical density models. Yet, current requirements for improvements in orbital prediction make clear that further refinements to density models are needed. In this paper, the operational consequences of longitude-dependent tides are quantitatively assessed through a series of orbital and reentry predictions. We find that in-track prediction differences incurred by tidal effects are typically of order 200 ± 100 m for satellites in 400-km circular orbits and 15 ± 10 km for satellites in 200-km circular orbits for a 24-hour prediction. For an initial 200-km circular orbit, surface impact differences of order 15° ± 15° latitude are incurred. For operational problems with similar accuracy needs, a density model that includes a climatological representation of longitude-dependent tides should significantly reduce errors due to this source.

Description: A new GNSS Solar Flare Activity Indicator (GSFLAI) is presented, given by the gradient of the ionospheric Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) rate, in terms of the solar-zenithal angle, measured from a global network of dual-frequency GPS receivers. It is highly correlated with the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) photons flux rate at the 26–34 nm spectral band, which is geo-effective in the ionization of the mono-atomic oxygen in the Earth's atmosphere. The results are supported by the comparison of GSFLAI with direct EUV observations provided by SEM instrument of SOHO spacecraft, for all the X-class solar flares occurring between 2001 and 2011 (more than 1000 direct comparisons at the 15 s SEM EUV sampling rate). The GSFLAI sensitivity enables detection of not only extreme X-class flares, but also of variations of one order of magnitude or even smaller (such as for M-class flares). Moreover, an optimal detection algorithm (SISTED), sharing the same physical fundamentals as GSFLAI, is also presented, providing 100% successful detection for all the X-class solar flares during 2000–2006 with registered location outside of the solar limb (i.e., detection of 94% of all of X-class solar-flares) and about 65% for M-class ones. As a final conclusion, GSFLAI is proposed as a new potential proxy of solar EUV photons flux rate for strong and mid solar flares, presenting high sensitivity with high temporal resolution (1 Hz, greater than previous solar EUV irradiance instruments), using existing ground GNSS facilities, and with the potential use as a solar flare detection parameter.

Description: Interplanetary shocks propagating into the magnetosphere can have significant space weather consequences. However, for many purposes it is the ejecta behind the shock that is the greater threat. The ejecta can be fast moving, impart significant momentum upon the magnetopause, and may contain a flux rope with strong southward magnetic fields. When transient solar wind activity strikes the magnetosphere, it can lead to enhanced magnetospheric currents and elevated radiation levels in the near-Earth environment. It is therefore desirable to use the observed shocks ahead of ejecta to predict any aspects of the approaching ejecta that can be predicted. We have examined 39 shocks observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft in the years 1998 to 2003. Within the selection are shocks that were chosen because they appear to propagate significantly more slowly than the speed of the ejecta behind it. While appearing at first to be a contradiction, we show that the shocks are propagating across the radial direction and at significant angles to the velocity of the ejecta. These slow-moving shocks are actually precursors of fast-moving and potentially significant ejecta. Reversing the analysis, we are able to predict the peak speed of the ejecta well in advance of their observation, up to or in excess of 10 h following the shock crossing, when slow-moving shocks are seen, and we have incorporated this feature into our real-time shock analysis.

Description: We describe an algorithm for intracalibration of measurements from plasma or energetic particle detectors on a three-axis stabilized platform. Modeling and forecasting of Earth's radiation belt environment requires data from particle instruments, and these data depend on measurements which have an inherent calibration uncertainty. Pre-launch calibration is typically performed, but on-orbit changes in the instrument often necessitate adjustment of calibration parameters to mitigate the effect of these changes on the measurements. On-orbit calibration practices for particle detectors aboard spin-stabilized spacecraft are well established. Three-axis stabilized platforms, however, pose unique challenges even when comparisons are being performed between multiple telescopes measuring the same energy ranges aboard the same satellite. This algorithm identifies time intervals when different telescopes are measuring particles with the same pitch angles. These measurements are used to compute scale factors which can be multiplied by the pre-launch geometric factor to correct any changes. The approach is first tested using measurements from GOES-13 MAGED particle detectors over a 5-month time period in 2010. We find statistically significant variations which are generally on the order of 5% or less. These results do not appear to be dependent on Poisson statistics nor upon whether a dead time correction was performed. When applied to data from a 5-month interval in 2011, one telescope shows a 10% shift from the 2010 scale factors. This technique has potential for operational use to help maintain relative calibration between multiple telescopes aboard a single satellite. It should also be extensible to inter-calibration between multiple satellites.

Description: Numerous developments have occurred in commercial space tourism since a feature article in Space Weather first addressed the growing interest in this facet of human space flight [Turner, 2007].

Description: We report the observation of galactic cosmic rays and solar energetic particles by the Electron Reflectometer instrument aboard the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft from May of 1999 to the mission conclusion in November 2006. Originally designed to detect low-energy electrons, the Electron Reflectometer also measured particles with energies 〉30 MeV that penetrated the aluminum housing of the instrument and were detected directly by microchannel plates in the instrument interior. Using a combination of theoretical and experimental results, we show how the Electron Reflectometer microchannel plates recorded high energy galactic cosmic rays with ∼45% efficiency. Comparisons of this data to galactic cosmic ray proton fluxes obtained from the Advanced Composition Explorer yield agreement to within 10% and reveal the expected solar cycle modulation as well as shorter timescale variations. Solar energetic particles were detected by the same mechanism as galactic cosmic rays; however, their flux levels are far more uncertain due to shielding effects and the energy-dependent response of the microchannel plates. Using the solar energetic particle data, we have developed a catalog of energetic particle events at Mars associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections, which includes the identification of interplanetary shocks. MGS observations of energetic particles at varying geometries between the Earth and Mars that include shocks produced by halo, limb, and backsided events provide a unique data set for use by the heliophysics modeling community.

Description: This paper provides an assessment of the operational solar flare look-up table currently in use at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) during solar cycle 23 (May 1996 – December 2008). To assess the value of human interaction, a validation of subjective flare probability forecasts was conducted and compared to the results obtained from the climatological look-up table used at SWPC. Probabilistic flare forecasts are evaluated using the Brier Skill Score, then discretized and entered into contingency tables from which a variety of verification measures are calculated. The ultimate goal of this report is to provide an operational baseline, whereby the scores and statistics from this paper can be used as the basis for future evaluation of models presented to the operational community.

Description: Predictions of occurrence of the aurora are highly dependent upon conditions existing in the space weather environment affecting Earth. Such predictions have several important implications for the operations of technical systems of various types as well as for national security concerns. In addition, as the paper by Machol et al. in this issue of Space Weather Quarterly discusses, prediction of the occurrence of visible aurora (not considering local atmospheric weather conditions) is also important for the tourist industry in northern latitude countries. In fact, a family member, considering a trip to Alaska, recently asked me for information on observing aurora while in that state. Although tourism is not directly related to the prime coverage of this journal ("space weather and its impacts on technical systems"), models that can successfully predict the occurrence of aurora for tourist purposes also have implications for their use for more practical applications. And vis versa.

Description: A US-UK Space Weather Workshop was held on 11-13 October 2011 in Boulder Colorado. The workshop was motivated by recent attention that space weather services have received in both the US and UK. In the spring of 2011, US President Obama met with UK Prime Minister Cameron and among other important topics, the two discussed collaborative efforts between the US and UK in the areas of space weather research and services. The recent workshop in Boulder was held to capitalize on this high level visibility and to enhance space weather activities in both countries. Recognition that space weather has significant impacts on society has placed new emphasis on improving operational space weather forecasts and services in support of critical infrastructures such navigation, communication, and electric power distribution. The goal of this workshop was to identify research needs and requirements in support of operational space weather forecasting in the US and UK. The workshop was sponsored by the Sciences and Innovation Section of the British Consulate-General, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, NSF's Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, NASA's Heliophysics Science Division, and The National Center for Atmospheric Research. The workshop covered many elements of space weather including solar/heliospheric research, magnetospheric/geospace research, thermosphere/ionosphere research, and coupling of these regimes with each other and with the atmosphere below. The participants included primarily academic and government representatives and spanned most of the space weather disciplines with emphasis on possible US-UK collaboration and support of the research needs of operational space weather service providers.

Description: A recently developed empirical model, TS07D (http://geomag_field.jhuapl.edu/model/), has provided for the first time a realistic description of the storm-scale geomagnetic field, free from a priori assumptions about the shape of the main magnetospheric current systems. The model uses information about the global state of the magnetosphere and its solar wind driving in the form of the Sym-H index averaged over substorm scales, its time derivative, and a similarly averaged solar wind electric field. The set of global parameters is used to bin a large number of points in a historical magnetic field database and to fit the model using only a part of the database composed of points taken at times when the global data-binning parameters were close to those at the time of interest. Transition from modeling to forecasting in such models requires a modification of their data binning procedure to use only the information about the state of the solar wind and the magnetosphere prior to the time of interest. This can be done using another (forecasting) set of binning parameters, which is optimized to provide the best prediction of the original (modeling) binning set. Several sets of such parameters are investigated. It is shown that the original (modeling) set contains spurious information, which appears because of the averaging of the solar wind electric field and Sym-H index over future moments in time. As a result, the problem of the optimization of the forecasting set becomes ill-posed, and the prediction efficiency of the original binning parameters, especially the averaged time derivative of the Sym-H index, is strongly limited. The predictions are shown to be substantially improved when the forecasting set includes an exponential decay function of the solar wind electric field proposed originally by Burton et al. (1975) with the e-folding time of the order of one hour.

Description: The zonal electric field is the primary driver of two important features of the equatorial ionosphere: (1)The Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA), and (2) plasma density irregularities, also known as spread-F. During propagation through the ionosphere, communication and navigation radio signals are attenuated, delayed and scattered by these ionospheric features. Prediction of the zonal electric field is therefore a key to the real-time specification of the ionosphere. We divide the zonal electric field into a climatological contribution plus the prompt-penetration contribution predicted by a transfer-function model applied to the interplanetary electric field measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite. The zonal electric field is predicted about one hour in advance, covering all local times and longitudes. The real-time prediction is available as a Google application at http://www.geomag.us/models/PPEFM/RealtimeEF.html. The benefit of this application to space weather forecasting is twofold: As the driver of the equatorial plasma fountain, the predicted zonal electric field is a leading indicator by 2–3 h of the EIA and the Total Electron Content (TEC) of the equatorial ionosphere. Second, rapid uplift of the ionosphere by strong eastward electric field is known to induce spread-F. Prediction of enhanced prompt penetration electric field in the eastward direction therefore enables the forecast of radio communication and navigation outages in the equatorial region.

Description: The resurgence of Sun activity after an extraordinary 4-year sunspot minimum means that the uppermost layers of Earth’s atmosphere are again being strongly heated and are expanding outward. This is causing increased atmospheric drag on low Earth-orbiting satellites. The Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) spacecraft is now expected to succumb to this important space weather phenomenon. After two decades of extraordinary achievements, SAMPEX is falling victim to the very solar activity and enhanced space weather disturbances that it has helped to assess and understand. The best prediction of drag experts is that SAMPEX will reenter Earth atmosphere in September 2012. The earliest likely entry is August 2012 and the latest is December 2012.

Description: On 29 November 2011, NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) published the 1968–1996 series of the Upper Atmosphere Geophysics (UAG) reports online at http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/solar/onlinepubl.html. This 105-volume series contains reports on unusual occurrences in the near-Earth space environment, on specialized data collections, and on other records and materials of interest to the solar-terrestrial physics community.

Description: Weather forecasting has expanded to space weather. As of 1 March 2012, satellite operators and the general public will be able to obtain forecasts of the Earth’s radiation belts, thanks to the SPACECAST project. The opening of the first European system to forecast Earth’s radiation belts, part of the SPACECAST project, is funded by the European Union Framework 7 Programme and provides a forecast of high-energy electrons up to 3 hours in advance (updated every hour), as well as a risk index for the satellite operations and service industry.

Description: Recognizing that space weather events are now being closely monitored by governments and industries as well as by space weather scientists, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is changing the way it characterizes geomagnetic storm activity.

Description: On 10 August 2014, an extraordinary spacecraft will return to Earth after having been away for 30 years. Plans are emerging and actions are being taken to reactivate the International Sun-Earth Explorer 3 (ISEE 3, later renamed the International Cometary Explorer (ICE)) and enable it to gather new scientific data.

Description: Delores Knipp’s textbook Understanding Space Weather and the Physics Behind It provides a comprehensive resource for space physicists teaching in a variety of academic departments to introduce space weather to advanced undergraduates. The book benefits from Knipp’s extensive experience teaching introductory and advanced undergraduate physics courses at the U.S. Air Force Academy. The fundamental physics concepts are clearly explained and are connected directly to the space physics concepts being discussed. To expand upon the relevant basic physics, current research areas and new observations are highlighted, with many of the chapters including contributions from a number of leading space physicists.

Description: The phase scintillation index was obtained from L1 GPS data collected with the Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network (CHAIN) during years of extended solar minimum 2008–2010. Phase scintillation occurs predominantly on the dayside in the cusp and in the nightside auroral oval. We set forth a probabilistic forecast method of phase scintillation in the cusp based on the arrival time of either solar wind corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). CIRs on the leading edge of high-speed streams (HSS) from coronal holes are known to cause recurrent geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances that can be forecast one or several solar rotations in advance. Superposed epoch analysis of phase scintillation occurrence showed a sharp increase in scintillation occurrence just after the arrival of high-speed solar wind and a peak associated with weak to moderate CMEs during the solar minimum. Cumulative probability distribution functions for the phase scintillation occurrence in the cusp are obtained from statistical data for days before and after CIR and ICME arrivals. The probability curves are also specified for low and high (below and above median) values of various solar wind plasma parameters. The initial results are used to demonstrate a forecasting technique on two example periods of CIRs and ICMEs.

Description: Adverse space weather conditions have been shown to be directly responsible for faults within power networks at high latitudes. A number of studies have also shown space weather to impact power networks at lower latitudes, although most of these studies show increases in GIC activity within networks not directly related to hardware faults. This study examines a GIC event that occurred in New Zealand's South Island power network on 6th November 2001. A transformer failure that occurred during this day is shown to be associated with a change in the solar wind dynamic pressure of nearly 20 nPa. Measurements of GICs recorded on the neutral lines of transformers across the Transpower network during this event show good correlation with a GIC-index, a proxy for the geoelectric field that drives GIC. Comparison of this event with GIC activity observed in the Transpower network during large space weather storms such as the “2003 Halloween storm,” suggests that solar wind shocks and associated geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) events may be as hazardous to middle latitude power networks as GIC activity occurring during the main phase of large storms. Further, this study suggests that the latitudinal dependence of the impacts of SI events on power systems differs from that observed during large main phase storms. This study also highlights the importance of operating procedures for large space weather events, even at middle latitude locations.

Description: Galactic cosmic rays and solar energetic particles (SEPs) present formidable radiation hazards [e.g., Cucinotta et al., 2010] for human and robotic operations beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). As new plans are conceived for human exploration beyond LEO, these space radiation hazards create critical needs for accurate situational awareness. A new near-real-time tool called PREDICCS (Predictions of Radiation From REleASE, EMMREM, and Data Incorporating the CRaTER, COSTEP, and Other SEP Measurements, http://prediccs.sr.unh.edu) provides the first online system for predicting and forecasting the radiation environment in near-Earth, lunar, and Martian space environments.

Description: In an effort to quantitatively assess the current capabilities of Ionosphere/Thermosphere (IT) models, an IT model validation study using metrics was performed. This study is a main part of the CEDAR Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere (ETI) Challenge, which was initiated at the CEDAR workshop in 2009 to better comprehend strengths and weaknesses of models in predicting the IT system, and to trace improvements in ionospheric/thermospheric specification and forecast. For the challenge, two strong geomagnetic storms, four moderate storms, and three quiet time intervals were selected. For the selected events, we obtained four scores (i.e., RMS error, prediction efficiency, ratio of the maximum change in amplitudes, and ratio of the maximum amplitudes) to compare the performance of models in reproducing the selected physical parameters such as vertical drifts, electron and neutral densities, NmF2, and hmF2. In this paper, we present the results from comparing modeled values against space-based measurements including NmF2 and hmF2 from the CHAMP and COSMIC satellites, and electron and neutral densities at the CHAMP satellite locations. It is found that the accuracy of models varies with the metrics used, latitude and geomagnetic activity level.

Description: When the National Space Weather Program was initiated, planners envisioned a process for transitioning research to operations featuring a rapid prototyping center where space weather models would be run, tested, evaluated, and modified routinely and frequently. Such a centralized approach would ensure continuous improvement until models were ready for transition to operations.

Description: State-of-the-art satellite drag models require upgrades to meet operational Precision Orbit Determination requirements for collision avoidance, reentry predictions and catalog maintenance. However, accurate model representations of thermospheric density are not currently possible without the use of data assimilation, or model calibration. Furthermore, due to sparse data sampling in the thermosphere, such calibration has only been successfully demonstrated by fitting the available data to a low-dimensional model. The High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM), used operationally by the Space Surveillance Network to aid in the tracking of low-earth orbiting satellites, compensates for errors in the Jacchia-70 static diffusion model by fitting a truncated set of spherical harmonics to a subset of recent satellite tracking data. We present a technique to derive a set of basis functions better suited to capturing the spatial variability and response of the thermosphere. By comparing the uncompensated Jacchia-70 model with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIEGCM), we create a new set of orthogonal basis functions that can be used to calibrate semi-empirical models such as HASDM with increased accuracy in the presence of sparse data. An initial analysis of the new approach, driven by synthetic data, shows a 32.9% improvement in the RMS error over the current implementation of HASDM.

Description: As readers of Space Weather already know, solar-terrestrial research is important for the design and operation of a large number of critical technical systems important for civil and national security interests. This is prominent in the latest decadal survey of the field by an expert committee under the auspices of the National Research Council (http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13060).

Description: This work proposes ISKANDARnet Ionospheric Outburst MOnitoring and alert System (IOMOS), along with Ionospheric Outburst Index (IOX) to develop an operational near real-time space weather service for Malaysia. The IOMOS is based on Global Positioning System (GPS) Network-based Real-Time Kinematic (NRTK) concept which is by nature for atmospheric (ionosphere and troposphere) modeling within the network coverage. The elegance of this solution lies in the fact that IOMOS utilize differential ionospheric residual from network of GPS baselines which incur no additional cost for operation. Users will be informed about the ionospheric perturbation through Short Message Service (SMS), email or Twitter®. This approach will ultimately beneficial for the navigation and satellite positioning communities, particularly during the coming Solar Cycle 24. In addition, a combination of local and global GPS network has been employed to study the equatorial ionosphere geomorphology and climatology in the Malaysian sector. Equatorial Total Electron Content (TEC) over Malaysia shows semi-annual, annual, and seasonal variations with maximum values appearing during equinoctial months and minimum during solstices months. The TEC value during vernal equinox is about 21% higher than autumnal equinox, and December solstice exceeds that at the June solstice by around 14%. It is also found that semi-annual variation is present at all levels of solar activity, whereas June solstice predominates December solstice during high solar activity for annual and seasonal variations. In near future, a near real-time TEC derivation system will be developed to support equatorial ionosphere modeling to enhance space weather service for Malaysia.

Description: The U.S. National Research Council’s (NRC) report Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society, which was released on 15 August, is a decadal strategy that includes overarching goals and key recommendations for basic and applied research in solar and space physics for 2013–2022. The report, which keeps an eye on budgetary concerns, recommends maintaining continued support for important elements of the Heliophysics Sys¬tems Observatory, which includes NASA’s existing heliophysics flight missions and the U.S. National Science Foundation’s (NSF) ground-based facilities. Other report priorities include implement¬ing a new U.S. federal multiagency initia¬tive called DRIVE (for diversify, realize, inte¬grate, venture, educate) to more fully develop and more effec¬tively employ many assets at NASA, NSF, and other agencies.

Description: The United States organized and convened a workshop on Space Weather Societal Impacts, held on the margins of the 55th Meeting of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS), in Vienna on 8 June 2012. The purpose of this workshop was to focus the attention of space weather experts and member state representatives in the United Nations on the societal impacts of space weather events, with particular attention to the needs of developing nations.