ALBERT

Description: Regional and local patterns in depth to water table, hydrochemistry and peat properties of bogs and their laggs in coastal British Columbia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3421-3435, 2013 Author(s): S. A. Howie and H. J. van Meerveld In restoration planning for damaged raised bogs, the lagg at the bog margin is often not given considerable weight and is sometimes disregarded entirely. However, the lagg is critical for the proper functioning of the bog, as it supports the water mound in the bog. In order to include the lagg in a restoration plan for a raised bog, it is necessary to understand the hydrological characteristics and functions of this rarely studied transition zone. We studied 13 coastal British Columbia (BC) bogs and identified two different gradients in depth to water table, hydrochemistry and peat properties: (1) a local bog expanse–bog margin gradient, and (2) a regional gradient related to climate and proximity to the ocean. Depth to water table generally increased across the transition from bog expanse to bog margin. In the bog expanse, pH was above 4.2 in the Pacific Oceanic wetland region (cooler and wetter climate) and below 4.3 in the Pacific Temperate wetland region (warmer and drier climate). Both pH and pH-corrected electrical conductivity increased significantly across the transition from bog expanse to bog margin, though not in all cases. Na + and Mg 2+ concentrations were generally highest in exposed, oceanic bogs and lower in inland bogs. Ash content in peat samples increased across the bog expanse–bog margin transition, and appears to be a useful abiotic indicator of the location of the bog margin. The observed variation in the hydrological and hydrochemical gradients across the bog expanse–bog margin transition highlights both local and regional diversity of bogs and their associated laggs.

Description: Bayesian networks modelling in support to cross-cutting analysis of water supply and sanitation in developing countries Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3397-3419, 2013 Author(s): C. Dondeynaz, J. López Puga, and C. Carmona Moreno Despite the efforts made towards the Millennium Development Goals targets during the last decade, improved access to water supply or basic sanitation still remains unavailable for millions of people across the world. This paper proposes a set of models that use 25 key variables and country profiles from the WatSan4Dev data set involving water supply and sanitation (Dondeynaz et al., 2012). This paper suggests the use of Bayesian network modelling methods because they are more easily adapted to deal with non-normal distributions, and integrate a qualitative approach for data analysis. They also offer the advantage of integrating preliminary knowledge into the probabilistic models. The statistical performance of the proposed models ranges between 20 and 5% error rates, which are very satisfactory taking into account the strong heterogeneity of variables. Probabilistic scenarios run from the models allow an assessment of the relationships between human development, external support, governance aspects, economic activities and water supply and sanitation (WSS) access. According to models proposed in this paper, gaining a strong poverty reduction will require the WSS access to reach 75–76% through: (1) the management of ongoing urbanisation processes to avoid slums development; and (2) the improvement of health care, for instance for children. Improving governance, such as institutional efficiency, capacities to make and apply rules, or control of corruption is positively associated with WSS sustainable development. The first condition for an increment of the HDP (human development and poverty) remains of course an improvement of the economic conditions with higher household incomes. Moreover, a significant country commitment to the environment, associated with civil society freedom of expression constitutes a favourable setting for sustainable WSS services delivery. Intensive agriculture using irrigation practises also appears as a mean for sustainable WSS thanks to multi-uses and complementarities. With a WSS sector organised at national level, irrigation practices can support the structuring and efficiency of the agriculture sector. It may then induce rural development in areas where WSS access often is set back compared to urban areas 1 . External financial support, called Official Development Assistance (ODA CI), plays a role in WSS improvement but comes last in the sensitivity analyses of models. An overall 47% of the Official Development Assistance goes first to poor countries, and is associated to governance aspects: (1) political stability and (2) country commitment to the environment and civil society degree of freedom. These governance aspects constitute a good framework for aid implementation in recipient countries. Modelling is run with the five groups of countries as defined in Dondeynaz et al. (2012). Models for profile 4 (essential external support) and profile 5 (primary material consumption) are specifically detailed and analysed in this paper. For countries in profile 4, fighting against water scarcity and progressing desertification should be the priority. However, for countries in profile 5, efforts should first concentrate on consolidation of political stability while supporting diversification of the economic activities. Nevertheless, for both profiles, reduction of poverty should remain the first priority as previously indicated. 1 JMP statistics, 2004 http://www.wssinfo.org/data-estimates/table/ , last access: 22 July 2013.

Description: Technical Note: A comparison of model and empirical measures of catchment-scale effective energy and mass transfer Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3389-3395, 2013 Author(s): C. Rasmussen and E. L. Gallo Recent work suggests that a coupled effective energy and mass transfer (EEMT) term, which includes the energy associated with effective precipitation and primary production, may serve as a robust prediction parameter of critical zone structure and function. However, the models used to estimate EEMT have been solely based on long-term climatological data with little validation using direct empirical measures of energy, water, and carbon balances. Here we compare catchment-scale EEMT estimates generated using two distinct approaches: (1) EEMT modeled using the established methodology based on estimates of monthly effective precipitation and net primary production derived from climatological data, and (2) empirical catchment-scale EEMT estimated using data from 86 catchments of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) and MOD17A3 annual net primary production (NPP) product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Results indicated positive and significant linear correspondence ( R 2 = 0.75; P 〈 0.001) between model and empirical measures with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.86 MJ m −2 yr −1 . Modeled EEMT values were consistently greater than empirical measures of EEMT. Empirical catchment estimates of the energy associated with effective precipitation ( E PPT ) were calculated using a mass balance approach that accounts for water losses to quick surface runoff not accounted for in the climatologically modeled E PPT . Similarly, local controls on primary production such as solar radiation and nutrient limitation were not explicitly included in the climatologically based estimates of energy associated with primary production ( E BIO ), whereas these were captured in the remotely sensed MODIS NPP data. These differences likely explain the greater estimate of modeled EEMT relative to the empirical measures. There was significant positive correlation between catchment aridity and the fraction of EEMT partitioned into E BIO ( F BIO ), with an increase in F BIO as a fraction of the total as aridity increases and percentage of catchment woody plant cover decreases. In summary, the data indicated strong correspondence between model and empirical measures of EEMT with limited bias that agree well with other empirical measures of catchment energy and water partitioning and plant cover.

Description: Contribution of directly connected and isolated impervious areas to urban drainage network hydrographs Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3473-3483, 2013 Author(s): Y. Seo, N.-J. Choi, and A. R. Schmidt This paper addresses the mass balance error observed in runoff hydrographs in urban watersheds by introducing assumptions regarding the contribution of infiltrated rainfall from pervious areas and isolated impervious area (IIA) to the runoff hydrograph. Rainfall infiltrating into pervious areas has been assumed not to contribute to the runoff hydrograph until Hortonian excess rainfall occurs. However, mass balance analysis in an urban watershed indicates that rainfall infiltrated to pervious areas can contribute directly to the runoff hydrograph, thereby offering an explanation for the long hydrograph tail commonly observed in runoff from urban storm sewers. In this study, a hydrologic analysis based on the width function is introduced, with two types of width functions obtained from both pervious and impervious areas, respectively. The width function can be regarded as the direct interpretation of the network response. These two width functions are derived to obtain distinct response functions for directly connected impervious areas (DCIA), IIA, and pervious areas. The results show significant improvement in the estimation of runoff hydrographs and suggest the need to consider the flow contribution from pervious areas to the runoff hydrograph. It also implies that additional contribution from flow paths through joints and cracks in sewer pipes needs to be taken into account to improve the estimation of runoff hydrographs in urban catchments.

Description: An original interpretation of the wet edge of the surface temperature–albedo space to estimate crop evapotranspiration (SEB-1S), and its validation over an irrigated area in northwestern Mexico Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3623-3637, 2013 Author(s): O. Merlin The space defined by the pair surface temperature ( T ) and surface albedo (α), and the space defined by the pair T and fractional green vegetation cover ( f vg ) have been extensively used to estimate evaporative fraction (EF) from solar/thermal remote sensing data. In both space-based approaches, evapotranspiration (ET) is estimated as remotely sensed EF times the available energy. For a given data point in the T -α space or in the T - f vg space, EF is derived as the ratio of the distance separating the point from the line identified as the dry edge to the distance separating the dry edge and the line identified as the wet edge. The dry and wet edges are classically defined as the upper and lower limit of the spaces, respectively. When investigating side by side the T -α and the T - f vg spaces, one observes that the range covered by T values on the (classically determined) wet edge is different for both spaces. In addition, when extending the wet and dry lines of the T -α space, both lines cross at α ≈ 0.4 although the wet and dry edges of the T - f vg space never cross for 0 ≤ f vg 〈 1. In this paper, a new ET (EF) model (SEB-1S) is derived by revisiting the classical physical interpretation of the T -α space to make its wet edge consistent with that of the T - f vg space. SEB-1S is tested over a 16 km by 10 km irrigated area in northwestern Mexico during the 2007–2008 agricultural season. The classical T -α space-based model is implemented as benchmark to evaluate the performance of SEB-1S. Input data are composed of ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer) thermal infrared, Formosat-2 shortwave, and station-based meteorological data. The fluxes simulated by SEB-1S and the classical T -α space-based model are compared on seven ASTER overpass dates with the in situ measurements collected at six locations within the study domain. The ET simulated by SEB-1S is significantly more accurate and robust than that predicted by the classical T -α space-based model. The correlation coefficient and slope of the linear regression between simulated and observed ET is improved from 0.82 to 0.93, and from 0.63 to 0.90, respectively. Moreover, constraining the wet edge using air temperature data improves the slope of the linear regression between simulated and observed ET.

Description: On an improved sub-regional water resources management representation for integration into earth system models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3605-3622, 2013 Author(s): N. Voisin, H. Li, D. Ward, M. Huang, M. Wigmosta, and L. R. Leung Human influence on the hydrologic cycle includes regulation and storage, consumptive use and overall redistribution of water resources in space and time. Representing these processes is essential for applications of earth system models in hydrologic and climate predictions, as well as impact studies at regional to global scales. Emerging large-scale research reservoir models use generic operating rules that are flexible for coupling with earth system models. Those generic operating rules have been successful in reproducing the overall regulated flow at large basin scales. This study investigates the uncertainties of the reservoir models from different implementations of the generic operating rules using the complex multi-objective Columbia River Regulation System in northwestern United States as an example to understand their effects on not only regulated flow but also reservoir storage and fraction of the demand that is met. Numerical experiments are designed to test new generic operating rules that combine storage and releases targets for multi-purpose reservoirs and to compare the use of reservoir usage priorities and predictors (withdrawals vs. consumptive demands, as well as natural vs. regulated mean flow) for configuring operating rules. Overall the best performing implementation is with combined priorities rules (flood control storage targets and irrigation release targets) set up with mean annual natural flow and mean monthly withdrawals. The options of not accounting for groundwater withdrawals, or on the contrary, of assuming that all remaining demand is met through groundwater extractions, are discussed.

Description: On selection of the optimal data time interval for real-time hydrological forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3639-3659, 2013 Author(s): J. Liu and D. Han With the advancement in modern telemetry and communication technologies, hydrological data can be collected with an increasingly higher sampling rate. An important issue deserving attention from the hydrological community is which suitable time interval of the model input data should be chosen in hydrological forecasting. Such a problem has long been recognised in the control engineering community but is a largely ignored topic in operational applications of hydrological forecasting. In this study, the intrinsic properties of rainfall–runoff data with different time intervals are first investigated from the perspectives of the sampling theorem and the information loss using the discrete wavelet transform tool. It is found that rainfall signals with very high sampling rates may not always improve the accuracy of rainfall–runoff modelling due to the catchment low-pass-filtering effect. To further investigate the impact of a data time interval in real-time forecasting, a real-time forecasting system is constructed by incorporating the probability distributed model (PDM) with a real-time updating scheme, the autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) model. Case studies are then carried out on four UK catchments with different concentration times for real-time flow forecasting using data with different time intervals of 15, 30, 45, 60, 90 and 120 min. A positive relation is found between the forecast lead time and the optimal choice of the data time interval, which is also highly dependent on the catchment concentration time. Finally, based on the conclusions from the case studies, a hypothetical pattern is proposed in three-dimensional coordinates to describe the general impact of the data time interval and to provide implications of the selection of the optimal time interval in real-time hydrological forecasting. Although nowadays most operational hydrological systems still have low data sampling rates (daily or hourly), the future is that higher sampling rates will become more widespread, and there is an urgent need for hydrologists both in academia and in the field to realise the significance of the data time interval issue. It is important that more case studies in different catchments with various hydrological forecasting systems are explored in the future to further verify and improve the proposed hypothetical pattern.

Description: Benchmark products for land evapotranspiration: LandFlux-EVAL multi-data set synthesis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3707-3720, 2013 Author(s): B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. G. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne Land evapotranspiration (ET) estimates are available from several global data sets. Here, monthly global land ET synthesis products, merged from these individual data sets over the time periods 1989–1995 (7 yr) and 1989–2005 (17 yr), are presented. The merged synthesis products over the shorter period are based on a total of 40 distinct data sets while those over the longer period are based on a total of 14 data sets. In the individual data sets, ET is derived from satellite and/or in situ observations (diagnostic data sets) or calculated via land-surface models (LSMs) driven with observations-based forcing or output from atmospheric reanalyses. Statistics for four merged synthesis products are provided, one including all data sets and three including only data sets from one category each (diagnostic, LSMs, and reanalyses). The multi-annual variations of ET in the merged synthesis products display realistic responses. They are also consistent with previous findings of a global increase in ET between 1989 and 1997 (0.13 mm yr −2 in our merged product) followed by a significant decrease in this trend (−0.18 mm yr −2 ), although these trends are relatively small compared to the uncertainty of absolute ET values. The global mean ET from the merged synthesis products (based on all data sets) is 493 mm yr −1 (1.35 mm d −1 ) for both the 1989–1995 and 1989–2005 products, which is relatively low compared to previously published estimates. We estimate global runoff (precipitation minus ET) to 263 mm yr −1 (34 406 km 3 yr −1 ) for a total land area of 130 922 000 km 2 . Precipitation, being an important driving factor and input to most simulated ET data sets, presents uncertainties between single data sets as large as those in the ET estimates. In order to reduce uncertainties in current ET products, improving the accuracy of the input variables, especially precipitation, as well as the parameterizations of ET, are crucial.

Description: Spatial patterns in timing of the diurnal temperature cycle Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3695-3706, 2013 Author(s): T. R. H. Holmes, W. T. Crow, and C. Hain This paper investigates the structural difference in timing of the diurnal temperature cycle (DTC) over land resulting from choice of measuring device or model framework. It is shown that the timing can be reliably estimated from temporally sparse observations acquired from a constellation of low Earth-orbiting satellites given record lengths of at least three months. Based on a year of data, the spatial patterns of mean DTC timing are compared between temperature estimates from microwave Ka-band, geostationary thermal infrared (TIR), and numerical weather prediction model output from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). It is found that the spatial patterns can be explained by vegetation effects, sensing depth differences and more speculatively the orientation of orographic relief features. In absolute terms, the GMAO model puts the peak of the DTC on average at 12:50 local solar time, 23 min before TIR with a peak temperature at 13:13 (both averaged over Africa and Europe). Since TIR is the shallowest observation of the land surface, this small difference represents a structural error that possibly affects the model's ability to assimilate observations that are closely tied to the DTC. The equivalent average timing for Ka-band is 13:44, which is influenced by the effect of increased sensing depth in desert areas. For non-desert areas, the Ka-band observations lag the TIR observations by only 15 min, which is in agreement with their respective theoretical sensing depth. The results of this comparison provide insights into the structural differences between temperature measurements and models, and can be used as a first step to account for these differences in a coherent way.

Description: Integrated hydrological modeling of the North China Plain and implications for sustainable water management Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3759-3778, 2013 Author(s): H. Qin, G. Cao, M. Kristensen, J. C. Refsgaard, M. O. Rasmussen, X. He, J. Liu, Y. Shu, and C. Zheng Groundwater overdraft has caused fast water level decline in the North China Plain (NCP) since the 1980s. Although many hydrological models have been developed for the NCP in the past few decades, most of them deal only with the groundwater component or only at local scales. In the present study, a coupled surface water–groundwater model using the MIKE SHE code has been developed for the entire alluvial plain of the NCP. All the major processes in the land phase of the hydrological cycle are considered in the integrated modeling approach. The most important parameters of the model are first identified by a sensitivity analysis process and then calibrated for the period 2000–2005. The calibrated model is validated for the period 2006–2008 against daily observations of groundwater heads. The simulation results compare well with the observations where acceptable values of root mean square error (RMSE) (most values lie below 4 m) and correlation coefficient ( R ) (0.36–0.97) are obtained. The simulated evapotranspiration (ET) is then compared with the remote sensing (RS)-based ET data to further validate the model simulation. The comparison result with a R 2 value of 0.93 between the monthly averaged values of simulated actual evapotranspiration (AET) and RS AET for the entire NCP shows a good performance of the model. The water balance results indicate that more than 70% of water leaving the flow system is attributed to the ET component, of which about 0.25% is taken from the saturated zone (SZ); about 29% comes from pumping, including irrigation pumping and non-irrigation pumping (net pumping). Sustainable water management analysis of the NCP is conducted using the simulation results obtained from the integrated model. An effective approach to improve water use efficiency in the NCP is by reducing the actual ET, e.g. by introducing water-saving technologies and changes in cropping.

Description: Simulation of a persistent medium-term precipitation event over the western Iberian Peninsula Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3741-3758, 2013 Author(s): S. C. Pereira, A. C. Carvalho, J. Ferreira, J. P. Nunes, J. J. Keizer, and A. Rocha This study evaluated the performance of the WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting with Advanced Research) weather prediction model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed during the rainy season and, more specifically, the month of December 2009. In this period, the region of interest was under the influence of a sequential passage of low-pressure systems associated with frontal surfaces. These synoptic weather patterns were responsible for long periods of rainfall, resulting in a high monthly precipitation. The WRF model results during the study period were furthermore evaluated with the specific objective to complement gaps in the precipitation recordings of a reference meteorological station (located in Pousadas), the data of which are fundamental for hydrological studies in nearby experimental catchments. Three distinct WRF model runs were forced with initial fields and boundary conditions obtained from a global domain model: (1) a reference experiment with no nudging (RunRef); (2) observational nudging for a specific location, i.e. the above-mentioned Pousadas reference station (RunObsN); and (3) nudging to the analysed field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated, using several statistical parameters, against a dataset of 27 rainfall stations that were grouped by elevation. The three model runs had similar performances, even though RunGridN resulted in a slight improvement. Regarding the other two experiments, this improvement justifies its use for complementing the surface measurements at the Pousadas reference station. Overall model accuracy, expressed in root mean square error (RMSE), of the three runs was comparable for the stations of the different elevations classes. Even so, it was slightly better for stations in the lowlands than the highlands. Furthermore, model predictions tended to be less accurate for stations located in rough terrain and deep valleys.

Description: Investigating the spatio-temporal variability in groundwater and surface water interactions: a multi-technique approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3437-3453, 2013 Author(s): N. P. Unland, I. Cartwright, M. S. Andersen, G. C. Rau, J. Reed, B. S. Gilfedder, A. P. Atkinson, and H. Hofmann The interaction between groundwater and surface water along the Tambo and Nicholson rivers, southeast Australia, was investigated using 222 Rn, Cl, differential flow gauging, head gradients, electrical conductivity (EC) and temperature profiles. Head gradients, temperature profiles, Cl concentrations and 222 Rn activities all indicate higher groundwater fluxes to the Tambo River in areas of increased topographic variation where the potential to form large groundwater–surface water gradients is greater. Groundwater discharge to the Tambo River calculated by Cl mass balance was significantly lower (1.48 × 10 4 to 1.41 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) than discharge estimated by 222 Rn mass balance (5.35 × 10 5 to 9.56 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) and differential flow gauging (5.41 × 10 5 to 6.30 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) due to bank return waters. While groundwater sampling from the bank of the Tambo River was intended to account for changes in groundwater chemistry associated with bank infiltration, variations in bank infiltration between sample sites remain unaccounted for, limiting the use of Cl as an effective tracer. Groundwater discharge to both the Tambo and Nicholson rivers was the highest under high-flow conditions in the days to weeks following significant rainfall, indicating that the rivers are well connected to a groundwater system that is responsive to rainfall. Groundwater constituted the lowest proportion of river discharge during times of increased rainfall that followed dry periods, while groundwater constituted the highest proportion of river discharge under baseflow conditions (21.4% of the Tambo in April 2010 and 18.9% of the Nicholson in September 2010).

Description: Resolving structural errors in a spatially distributed hydrologic model using ensemble Kalman filter state updates Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3455-3472, 2013 Author(s): J. H. Spaaks and W. Bouten In hydrological modeling, model structures are developed in an iterative cycle as more and different types of measurements become available and our understanding of the hillslope or watershed improves. However, with increasing complexity of the model, it becomes more and more difficult to detect which parts of the model are deficient, or which processes should also be incorporated into the model during the next development step. In this study, we first compare two methods (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (SCEM-UA) and the Simultaneous parameter Optimization and Data Assimilation algorithm (SODA)) to calibrate a purposely deficient 3-D hillslope-scale model to error-free, artificially generated measurements. We use a multi-objective approach based on distributed pressure head at the soil–bedrock interface and hillslope-scale discharge and water balance. For these idealized circumstances, SODA's usefulness as a diagnostic methodology is demonstrated by its ability to identify the timing and location of processes that are missing in the model. We show that SODA's state updates provide information that could readily be incorporated into an improved model structure, and that this type of information cannot be gained from parameter estimation methods such as SCEM-UA. We then expand on the SODA result by performing yet another calibration, in which we investigate whether SODA's state updating patterns are still capable of providing insight into model structure deficiencies when there are fewer measurements, which are moreover subject to measurement noise. We conclude that SODA can help guide the discussion between experimentalists and modelers by providing accurate and detailed information on how to improve spatially distributed hydrologic models.

Description: Spatial and seasonal variations in evapotranspiration over Canada's landmass Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3561-3575, 2013 Author(s): S. Wang, Y. Yang, Y. Luo, and A. Rivera A 30 yr (1979–2008) dataset of actual evapotranspiration (ET) at 1 km resolution was generated over Canada's landmass by integrating remote sensing land surface data and gridded climate data using the EALCO model run at a 30 min time step. This long-term high-resolution dataset was used to characterize the spatiotemporal variations in ET across Canada. The results show that annual ET varied from 600 mm yr −1 over several regions in the south to less than 100 mm yr −1 in the northern Arctic. Nationally, ET in summer (i.e., June to August) comprised 65% of the annual total amount. ET in the cold season remained mostly below 10 mm month −1 over the country. Negative monthly ET was obtained over the Arctic region in winter, indicating EALCO simulated a larger amount of condensation than ET. Overall, the mean ET over the entire Canadian landmass for the 30 yr was 239 mm yr −1 , or 44% of its corresponding precipitation. Comparisons of available ET studies in Canada revealed large uncertainties in ET estimates associated with using different approaches. The scarcity of ET measurements for the diverse ecosystems in Canada remains a significant challenge for reducing the uncertainties; this gap needs to be addressed in future studies to improve capabilities in climate/weather modeling and water resource management.

Description: Post-processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short-term streamflow forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3587-3603, 2013 Author(s): D. E. Robertson, D. L. Shrestha, and Q. J. Wang Sub-daily ensemble rainfall forecasts that are bias free and reliably quantify forecast uncertainty are critical for flood and short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting. Post-processing of rainfall predictions from numerical weather prediction models is typically required to provide rainfall forecasts with these properties. In this paper, a new approach to generate ensemble rainfall forecasts by post-processing raw numerical weather prediction (NWP) rainfall predictions is introduced. The approach uses a simplified version of the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to produce forecast probability distributions for individual locations and forecast lead times. Ensemble forecasts with appropriate spatial and temporal correlations are then generated by linking samples from the forecast probability distributions using the Schaake shuffle. The new approach is evaluated by applying it to post-process predictions from the ACCESS-R numerical weather prediction model at rain gauge locations in the Ovens catchment in southern Australia. The joint distribution of NWP predicted and observed rainfall is shown to be well described by the assumed log-sinh transformed bivariate normal distribution. Ensemble forecasts produced using the approach are shown to be more skilful than the raw NWP predictions both for individual forecast lead times and for cumulative totals throughout all forecast lead times. Skill increases result from the correction of not only the mean bias, but also biases conditional on the magnitude of the NWP rainfall prediction. The post-processed forecast ensembles are demonstrated to successfully discriminate between events and non-events for both small and large rainfall occurrences, and reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. Future work will assess the efficacy of the post-processing method for a wider range of climatic conditions and also investigate the benefits of using post-processed rainfall forecasts for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting.

Description: Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3661-3677, 2013 Author(s): A. F. Lutz, W. W. Immerzeel, A. Gobiet, F. Pellicciotti, and M. F. P. Bierkens Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July–September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October–February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

Description: Prediction of dissolved reactive phosphorus losses from small agricultural catchments: calibration and validation of a parsimonious model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3679-3693, 2013 Author(s): C. Hahn, V. Prasuhn, C. Stamm, P. Lazzarotto, M. W. H. Evangelou, and R. Schulin Eutrophication of surface waters due to diffuse phosphorus (P) losses continues to be a severe water quality problem worldwide, causing the loss of ecosystem functions of the respective water bodies. Phosphorus in runoff often originates from a small fraction of a catchment only. Targeting mitigation measures to these critical source areas (CSAs) is expected to be most efficient and cost-effective, but requires suitable tools. Here we investigated the capability of the parsimonious Rainfall-Runoff-Phosphorus (RRP) model to identify CSAs in grassland-dominated catchments based on readily available soil and topographic data. After simultaneous calibration on runoff data from four small hilly catchments on the Swiss Plateau, the model was validated on a different catchment in the same region without further calibration. The RRP model adequately simulated the discharge and dissolved reactive P (DRP) export from the validation catchment. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model predictions were robust with respect to the classification of soils into "poorly drained" and "well drained", based on the available soil map. Comparing spatial hydrological model predictions with field data from the validation catchment provided further evidence that the assumptions underlying the model are valid and that the model adequately accounts for the dominant P export processes in the target region. Thus, the parsimonious RRP model is a valuable tool that can be used to determine CSAs. Despite the considerable predictive uncertainty regarding the spatial extent of CSAs, the RRP can provide guidance for the implementation of mitigation measures. The model helps to identify those parts of a catchment where high DRP losses are expected or can be excluded with high confidence. Legacy P was predicted to be the dominant source for DRP losses and thus, in combination with hydrologic active areas, a high risk for water quality.

Description: High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: a first evaluation of the ALADIN-Climate model in Morocco Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3721-3739, 2013 Author(s): Y. Tramblay, D. Ruelland, S. Somot, R. Bouaicha, and E. Servat In the framework of the international CORDEX program, new regional climate model (RCM) simulations at high spatial resolutions are becoming available for the Mediterranean region (Med-CORDEX initiative). This study provides the first evaluation for hydrological impact studies of one of these high-resolution simulations in a 1800 km 2 catchment located in North Morocco. Different approaches are compared to analyze the climate change impacts on the hydrology of this catchment using a high-resolution RCM (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative at two different spatial resolutions (50 and 12 km) and for two different Radiative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The main issues addressed in the present study are: (i) what is the impact of increased RCM resolution on present-climate hydrological simulations and on future projections? (ii) Are the bias-correction of the RCM model and the parameters of the hydrological model stationary and transferable to different climatic conditions? (iii) What is the climate and hydrological change signal based on the new Radiative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)? Results indicate that high resolution simulations at 12 km better reproduce the seasonal patterns, the seasonal distributions and the extreme events of precipitation. The parameters of the hydrological model, calibrated to reproduce runoff at the monthly time step over the 1984–2010 period, do not show a strong variability between dry and wet calibration periods in a differential split-sample test. However the bias correction of precipitation by quantile-matching does not give satisfactory results in validation using the same differential split-sample testing method. Therefore a quantile-perturbation method that does not rely on any stationarity assumption and produces ensembles of perturbed series of precipitation was introduced. The climate change signal under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicates a decrease of respectively −30 to −57% in surface runoff for the mid-term (2041–2062), when for the same period the projections for precipitation are ranging between −15 and −19% and for temperature between +1.3 and +1.9 °C.

Description: Errors in climate model daily precipitation and temperature output: time invariance and implications for bias correction Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2147-2159, 2013 Author(s): E. P. Maurer, T. Das, and D. R. Cayan When correcting for biases in general circulation model (GCM) output, for example when statistically downscaling for regional and local impacts studies, a common assumption is that the GCM biases can be characterized by comparing model simulations and observations for a historical period. We demonstrate some complications in this assumption, with GCM biases varying between mean and extreme values and for different sets of historical years. Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature from late 20th century simulations by four GCMs over the United States were compared to gridded observations. Using random years from the historical record we select a "base" set and a 10 yr independent "projected" set. We compare differences in biases between these sets at median and extreme percentiles. On average a base set with as few as 4 randomly-selected years is often adequate to characterize the biases in daily GCM precipitation and temperature, at both median and extreme values; 12 yr provided higher confidence that bias correction would be successful. This suggests that some of the GCM bias is time invariant. When characterizing bias with a set of consecutive years, the set must be long enough to accommodate regional low frequency variability, since the bias also exhibits this variability. Newer climate models included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fifth assessment will allow extending this study for a longer observational period and to finer scales.

Description: Characterization of groundwater dynamics in landslides in varved clays Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2171-2183, 2013 Author(s): J. E. van der Spek, T. A. Bogaard, and M. Bakker Groundwater dynamics may play a significant role in landslides. A detailed model is developed of the groundwater dynamics in landslides in varved clays in the Trièves area in the French Alps. The varved clays consist of a sequence of alternating silt and clay layers, covered by a colluvium layer and intersected by fissures. The hydraulic conductivity of the clay layers is negligible compared to the silt layers. It is conceptualized that fissures form a hydraulic connection between the colluvium and the varved clays. Groundwater recharge flows through the colluvium into the fissures, where water is exchanged horizontally between the fissure and the silt layers of the varved clays. Groundwater flow in the colluvium is simulated with the Boussinesq equation, while flow in the silt layers of the varved clays is simulated with the Richards equation. Longitudinal outflow from the fissure is simulated with a linear-reservoir model. Scattered data of relatively short monitoring periods is available for several landslides in the region. A good similarity between observed and simulated heads is obtained, especially when considering the lack of important physical parameters such as the fissure width and the distance between the monitoring point and the fissure. A simulation for the period 1959–2004 showed some correlation between peaks in the simulated heads and the recorded occurrence of landslides, while the bottom of the varved clays remained saturated during the entire simulation period.

Description: Assessing the hydrological effect of the check dams in the Loess Plateau, China, by model simulations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2185-2193, 2013 Author(s): Y. D. Xu, B. J. Fu, and C. S. He Check dams are commonly used for soil conservation. In the Loess Plateau of China, check dams have been widely constructed as the principal means to retain floodwater and intercept soil sediments since the 1970s. For instance, there are more than 6572 check dams in the Yanhe watershed with an area of 7725 km 2 in the Loess Plateau. However, little research has been done to quantify the hydrological effects of the check dams. In this research, the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied to simulate the runoff and sediment in the Yanhe watershed. We treated the 1950s to 1960s as the reference period since there were very few check dams during the period. The model was firstly calibrated and validated in the reference period. The calibrated model was then used in the later periods to simulate the hydrological effects of the check dams. The results showed that the check dams had a regulation effect on runoff and a retention effect on sediment. From 1984 to 1987, the runoff in rainy season (from May to October) decreased by 1.54 m 3 s −1 (14.7%) to 3.13 m 3 s −1 (25.9%) due to the check dams; while in dry season (from November to the following April), runoff increased by 1.46 m 3 s −1 (60.5%) to 1.95 m 3 s −1 (101.2%); the sediment in rainy season decreased by 2.49 × 10 6 ton (34.6%) to 4.35 × 10 6 ton (48.0%). From 2006 to 2008, the runoff in rainy season decreased by 0.79 m 3 s −1 (15.5%) to 1.75 m 3 s −1 (28.9%), and the runoff in dry season increased by 0.51 m 3 s −1 (20.1%) to 0.97 m 3 s −1 (46.4%); the sediment in rainy season decreased by 2.03 × 10 6 ton (79.4%) to 3.12 × 10 6 ton (85.5%). Construction of the large number of check dams in the Loess Plateau has enhanced the region's capacity to control the runoff and sediment. In the Yanhe watershed, the annual runoff was reduced by less than 14.3% due to the check dams; and the sediment in rainy season was blocked by up to 85.5%. Thus, check dams are effective measures for soil erosion control in the Loess Plateau.

Description: Determining spatial variability of dry spells: a Markov-based method, applied to the Makanya catchment, Tanzania Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2161-2170, 2013 Author(s): B. M. C. Fischer, M. L. Mul, and H. H. G. Savenije With a growing world population and a trend towards more resource-intensive diets, pressure on land and water resources for food production will continue to increase in the coming decades. Large parts of the world rely on rainfed agriculture for their food security. In Africa, 90% of the food production is from rainfed agriculture, generally with low yields and a high risk of crop failure. One of the main reasons for crop failure is the occurrence of dry spells during the growing season. Key indicators are the critical dry spell duration and the probability of dry spell occurrence. In this paper a new Markov-based framework is presented to spatially map the length of dry spells for fixed probabilities of non-exceedance. The framework makes use of spatially varying Markov coefficients that are correlated to readily available spatial information such as elevation and distance to the sea. The dry spell map thus obtained is compared to the spatially variable critical dry spell duration, based on soil properties and crop water requirements, to assess the probability of crop failure in different locations. The results show that in the Makanya catchment the length of dry spell occurrence is highly variable in space, even over relatively short distances. In certain areas the probability of crop failure reaches levels that make rainfed agricultural unsustainable, even close to areas where currently rainfed agriculture is successfully being practised. This method can be used to identify regions that are vulnerable to dry spells and, subsequently, to develop strategies for supplementary irrigation or rainwater harvesting.

Description: Estimating actual, potential, reference crop and pan evaporation using standard meteorological data: a pragmatic synthesis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1331-1363, 2013 Author(s): T. A. McMahon, M. C. Peel, L. Lowe, R. Srikanthan, and T. R. McVicar This guide to estimating daily and monthly actual, potential, reference crop and pan evaporation covers topics that are of interest to researchers, consulting hydrologists and practicing engineers. Topics include estimating actual evaporation from deep lakes and from farm dams and for catchment water balance studies, estimating potential evaporation as input to rainfall-runoff models, and reference crop evapotranspiration for small irrigation areas, and for irrigation within large irrigation districts. Inspiration for this guide arose in response to the authors' experiences in reviewing research papers and consulting reports where estimation of the actual evaporation component in catchment and water balance studies was often inadequately handled. Practical guides using consistent terminology that cover both theory and practice are not readily available. Here we provide such a guide, which is divided into three parts. The first part provides background theory and an outline of the conceptual models of potential evaporation of Penman, Penman–Monteith and Priestley–Taylor, as well as discussions of reference crop evapotranspiration and Class-A pan evaporation. The last two sub-sections in this first part include techniques to estimate actual evaporation from (i) open-surface water and (ii) landscapes and catchments (Morton and the advection-aridity models). The second part addresses topics confronting a practicing hydrologist, e.g. estimating actual evaporation for deep lakes, shallow lakes and farm dams, lakes covered with vegetation, catchments, irrigation areas and bare soil. The third part addresses six related issues: (i) automatic (hard wired) calculation of evaporation estimates in commercial weather stations, (ii) evaporation estimates without wind data, (iii) at-site meteorological data, (iv) dealing with evaporation in a climate change environment, (v) 24 h versus day-light hour estimation of meteorological variables, and (vi) uncertainty in evaporation estimates. This paper is supported by a Supplement that includes 21 sections enhancing the material in the text, worked examples of many procedures discussed in the paper, a program listing (Fortran 90) of Morton's WREVAP evaporation models along with tables of monthly Class-A pan coefficients for 68 locations across Australia and other information.

Description: Corrigendum to "Calibration of aerodynamic roughness over the Tibetan Plateau with Ensemble Kalman Filter analysed heat flux" published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4291–4302, 2012 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1309-1310, 2013 Author(s): J. H. Lee, J. Timmermans, Z. Su, and M. Mancini No abstract available.

Description: Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1311-1318, 2013 Author(s): F. Yusof, I. L. Kane, and Z. Yusop A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d) processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semiparametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983) to analyse nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long memory. Furthermore, an empirical fluctuation process using the ordinary least square (OLS)-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test for the break date was applied. Break dates were detected in all data sets. The data sets were partitioned according to their respective break date, and a further test for long memory was applied for all subseries. Results show that all subseries follows the same pattern as the original series. The estimate of the fractional parameters d 1 and d 2 on the subseries obtained by splitting the original series at the break date confirms that there is a long memory in the data generating process (DGP). Therefore this evidence shows a true long memory not due to structural break.

Description: Snow glacier melt estimation in tropical Andean glaciers using artificial neural networks Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1265-1280, 2013 Author(s): V. Moya Quiroga, A. Mano, Y. Asaoka, S. Kure, K. Udo, and J. Mendoza Snow and glacier melt (SGM) estimation plays an important role in water resources management. Although melting process can be modelled by energy balance methods, such studies require detailed data, which is rarely available. Hence, new and simpler approaches are needed for SGM estimations. The present study aims at developing an artificial neural networks (ANN) based technique for estimating the energy available for melt (EAM) and SGM rates using available and easy to obtain data such as temperature, short-wave radiation and relative humidity. Several ANN and multiple linear regression models (MLR) were developed to represent the energy fluxes and estimate the EAM. The models were trained using measured data from the Zongo glacier located in the outer tropics and validated against measured data from the Antizana glacier located in the inner tropics. It was found that ANN models provide a better generalisation when applied to other data sets. The performance of the models was improved by including Antizana data into the training set, as it was proved to provide better results than other techniques like the use of a prior logarithmic transformation. The final model was validated against measured data from the Alpine glaciers Argentière and Saint-Sorlin. Then, the models were applied for the estimation of SGM at Condoriri glacier. The estimated SGM was compared with SGM estimated by an enhanced temperature method and proved to have the same behaviour considering temperature sensibility. Moreover, the ANN models have the advantage of direct application, while the temperature method requires calibration of empirical coefficients.

Description: Assessment of shallow subsurface characterisation with non-invasive geophysical methods at the intermediate hill-slope scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1297-1307, 2013 Author(s): S. Popp, D. Altdorff, and P. Dietrich Hill-slopes of several hectares in size represent a difficult scale for subsurface characterisation, as these landscape units are well beyond the scope of traditional point-scale techniques. By means of electromagnetic induction (EMI) and gamma-ray spectroscopy, spatially distributed soil proxy data were collected from a heterogeneous hill-slope site. Results of EMI mapping using the EM38DD showed that soil electrical conductivity (ECa) is highly variable at both temporal and spatial scales. Calibration of the integral ECa signal to a specific target like soil moisture is hampered by the ambiguous response of EMI to the clay-rich hill-slope underground. Gamma-ray results were obtained during a single survey, along with EMI measurements and selected soil sampling. In contrast to ECa, a noticeable correlation between Total Count and K emission data and soil-water content seemed to be present. Relevant proxy variables from both methods were used for k means clustering in order to distinguish between hill-slope areas with different soil conditions. As a result, we obtained a suitable partition of hill-slope that was comparable with a previously obtained zonation model based on ecological factors.

Description: Multivariate return periods in hydrology: a critical and practical review focusing on synthetic design hydrograph estimation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1281-1296, 2013 Author(s): B. Gräler, M. J. van den Berg, S. Vandenberghe, A. Petroselli, S. Grimaldi, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest Most of the hydrological and hydraulic studies refer to the notion of a return period to quantify design variables. When dealing with multiple design variables, the well-known univariate statistical analysis is no longer satisfactory, and several issues challenge the practitioner. How should one incorporate the dependence between variables? How should a multivariate return period be defined and applied in order to yield a proper design event? In this study an overview of the state of the art for estimating multivariate design events is given and the different approaches are compared. The construction of multivariate distribution functions is done through the use of copulas, given their practicality in multivariate frequency analyses and their ability to model numerous types of dependence structures in a flexible way. A synthetic case study is used to generate a large data set of simulated discharges that is used for illustrating the effect of different modelling choices on the design events. Based on different uni- and multivariate approaches, the design hydrograph characteristics of a 3-D phenomenon composed of annual maximum peak discharge, its volume, and duration are derived. These approaches are based on regression analysis, bivariate conditional distributions, bivariate joint distributions and Kendall distribution functions, highlighting theoretical and practical issues of multivariate frequency analysis. Also an ensemble-based approach is presented. For a given design return period, the approach chosen clearly affects the calculated design event, and much attention should be given to the choice of the approach used as this depends on the real-world problem at hand.

Description: Derivation of RCM-driven potential evapotranspiration for hydrological climate change impact analysis in Great Britain: a comparison of methods and associated uncertainty in future projections Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1365-1377, 2013 Author(s): C. Prudhomme and J. Williamson Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the water that would be lost by plants through evaporation and transpiration if water was not limited in the soil, and it is commonly used in conceptual hydrological modelling in the calculation of runoff production and hence river discharge. Future changes of PET are likely to be as important as changes in precipitation patterns in determining changes in river flows. However PET is not calculated routinely by climate models so it must be derived independently when the impact of climate change on river flow is to be assessed. This paper compares PET estimates from 12 equations of different complexity, driven by the Hadley Centre's HadRM3-Q0 model outputs representative of 1961–1990, with MORECS PET, a product used as reference PET in Great Britain. The results show that the FAO56 version of the Penman–Monteith equations reproduces best the spatial and seasonal variability of MORECS PET across GB when driven by HadRM3-Q0 estimates of relative humidity, total cloud, wind speed and linearly bias-corrected mean surface temperature. This suggests that potential biases in HadRM3-Q0 climate do not result in significant biases when the physically based FAO56 equations are used. Percentage changes in PET between the 1961–1990 and 2041–2070 time slices were also calculated for each of the 12 PET equations from HadRM3-Q0. Results show a large variation in the magnitude (and sometimes direction) of changes estimated from different PET equations, with Turc, Jensen–Haise and calibrated Blaney–Criddle methods systematically projecting the largest increases across GB for all months and Priestley–Taylor, Makkink, and Thornthwaite showing the smallest changes. We recommend the use of the FAO56 equation as, when driven by HadRM3-Q0 climate data, this best reproduces the reference MORECS PET across Great Britain for the reference period of 1961–1990. Further, the future changes of PET estimated by FAO56 are within the range of uncertainty defined by the ensemble of 12 PET equations. The changes show a clear northwest–southeast gradient of PET increase with largest (smallest) changes in the northwest in January (July and October) respectively. However, the range in magnitude of PET changes due to the choice of PET method shown in this study for Great Britain suggests that PET uncertainty is a challenge facing the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology mostly ignored up to now.

Description: Impact of long-term drainage on summer groundwater flow patterns in the Mer Bleue peatland, Ontario, Canada Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3485-3498, 2013 Author(s): B. J. Kopp, J. H. Fleckenstein, N. T. Roulet, E. Humphreys, J. Talbot, and C. Blodau Long-term impacts of drier conditions on the hydrology of northern peatlands are poorly understood. We used long-term drainage near a historic drainage ditch, separating an area from the main peatland, as an analogue for long-term drying in a northern temperate bog. The objective was to identify the impact of drier conditions on ecohydrological processes and groundwater flow patterns in an area now forested and an area that maintained a bog-like character. Groundwater flow patterns alternated between mostly downward flow and occasionally upward flow in the bog area and were mostly upward-orientated in the forested area, which suggested that there the flow pattern had shifted from bog- to fen-like conditions. Flow patterns were in agreement with changes in post-drainage hydraulic conductivities, storage capacity of the peat and water table levels. Compared to the bog, hydraulic conductivities in the forested area were one to three orders of magnitude lower in the uppermost 0.75 m of peat (paired t test, p 〈 0.05). Bulk density had increased and the water table level was lower and more strongly fluctuating in the forested area. Our findings suggest hydraulic gradients and flow patterns have changed due to increased evapotranspiration and interception with the emergence of a tree cover. The smaller size of the now-forested area relative to the remaining bog area appeared to be important for the hydrological change. With the main Mer Bleue bog as hinterland, enhanced runoff to the drainage channel had little effect on hydrologic and vegetation patterns. In the cut-off, smaller, now forested area pervasive changes in vegetation and hydrologic processes occurred. The difference in response to local drainage raises questions about tipping points with respect to the impact of drying on peatland ecosystems that need to be addressed in future research.

Description: Potential and limitations of multidecadal satellite soil moisture observations for selected climate model evaluation studies Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3523-3542, 2013 Author(s): A. Loew, T. Stacke, W. Dorigo, R. de Jeu, and S. Hagemann Soil moisture is an essential climate variable (ECV) of major importance for land–atmosphere interactions and global hydrology. An appropriate representation of soil moisture dynamics in global climate models is therefore important. Recently, a first multidecadal, observation-based soil moisture dataset has become available that provides information on soil moisture dynamics from satellite observations (ECVSM, essential climate variable soil moisture). The present study investigates the potential and limitations of this new dataset for several applications in climate model evaluation. We compare soil moisture data from satellite observations, reanalysis and simulations from a state-of-the-art land surface model and analyze relationships between soil moisture and precipitation anomalies in the different dataset. Other potential applications like model parameter optimization or model initialization are not investigated in the present study. In a detailed regional study, we show that ECVSM is capable to capture well the interannual and intraannual soil moisture and precipitation dynamics in the Sahelian region. Current deficits of the new dataset are critically discussed and summarized at the end of the paper to provide guidance for an appropriate usage of the ECVSM dataset for climate studies.

Description: Simultaneous estimation of model state variables and observation and forecast biases using a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3499-3521, 2013 Author(s): V. R. N. Pauwels, G. J. M. De Lannoy, H.-J. Hendricks Franssen, and H. Vereecken In this paper, we present a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter to estimate both observation and forecast bias in hydrologic models, in addition to state variables. The biases are estimated using the discrete Kalman filter, and the state variables using the ensemble Kalman filter. A key issue in this multi-component assimilation scheme is the exact partitioning of the difference between observation and forecasts into state, forecast bias and observation bias updates. Here, the error covariances of the forecast bias and the unbiased states are calculated as constant fractions of the biased state error covariance, and the observation bias error covariance is a function of the observation prediction error covariance. In a series of synthetic experiments, focusing on the assimilation of discharge into a rainfall-runoff model, it is shown that both static and dynamic observation and forecast biases can be successfully estimated. The results indicate a strong improvement in the estimation of the state variables and resulting discharge as opposed to the use of a bias-unaware ensemble Kalman filter. Furthermore, minimal code modification in existing data assimilation software is needed to implement the method. The results suggest that a better performance of data assimilation methods should be possible if both forecast and observation biases are taken into account.

Description: Land use change effects on runoff generation in a humid tropical montane cloud forest region Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3543-3560, 2013 Author(s): L. E. Muñoz-Villers and J. J. McDonnell While tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) provide critical hydrological services to downstream regions throughout much of the humid tropics, catchment hydrology and impacts associated with forest conversion in these ecosystems remain poorly understood. Here, we compare the annual, seasonal and event-scale streamflow patterns and runoff generation processes of three neighbouring headwater catchments in central Veracruz (eastern Mexico) with similar pedological and geological characteristics, but different land cover: old-growth TMCF, 20 yr-old naturally regenerating TMCF and a heavily grazed pasture. We used a 2 yr record of high resolution rainfall and stream flow data (2008–2010) in combination with stable isotope and chemical tracer data collected for a series of storms during a 6-week period of increasing antecedent wetness (wetting-up cycle). Our results showed that annual and seasonal streamflow patterns in the mature and secondary forest were similar. In contrast, the pasture showed a 10% higher mean annual streamflow, most likely because of a lower rainfall interception. During the wetting-up cycle, storm runoff ratios increased at all three catchments (from 11 to 54% for the mature forest, 7 to 52% for the secondary forest and 3 to 59% for the pasture). With the increasing antecedent wetness, hydrograph separation analysis showed progressive increases of pre-event water contributions to total stormflow (from 35 to 99% in the mature forest, 26 to 92% in the secondary forest and 64 to 97% in the pasture). At all three sites, rainfall-runoff responses were dominated by subsurface flow generation processes for the majority of storms. However, for the largest and most intense storm (typically occurring once every 2 yr), sampled under wet antecedent conditions, the event water contribution in the pasture (34% on average) was much higher than in the forests (5% on average), indicating that rainfall infiltration capacity of the pasture was exceeded. This result suggests that despite the high permeability of the volcanic soils and underlying substrate in this TMCF environment, the conversion of forest to pasture may lead to important changes in runoff generation processes during large and high intensity storms. On the other hand, our results also showed that 20 yr of natural regeneration may be enough to largely restore the original hydrological conditions of this TMCF.

Description: Using the nonlinear aquifer storage–discharge relationship to simulate the base flow of glacier- and snowmelt-dominated basins in northwest China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3577-3586, 2013 Author(s): R. Gan and Y. Luo Base flow is an important component in hydrological modeling. This process is usually modeled by using the linear aquifer storage–discharge relation approach, although the outflow from groundwater aquifers is nonlinear. To identify the accuracy of base flow estimates in rivers dominated by snowmelt and/or glacier melt in arid and cold northwestern China, a nonlinear storage–discharge relationship for use in SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) modeling was developed and applied to the Manas River basin in the Tian Shan Mountains. Linear reservoir models and a digital filter program were used for comparisons. Meanwhile, numerical analysis of recession curves from 78 river gauge stations revealed variation in the parameters of the nonlinear relationship. It was found that the nonlinear reservoir model can improve the streamflow simulation, especially for low-flow period. The higher Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, logarithmic efficiency, and volumetric efficiency, and lower percent bias were obtained when compared to the one-linear reservoir approach. The parameter b of the aquifer storage–discharge function varied mostly between 0.0 and 0.1, which is much smaller than the suggested value of 0.5. The coefficient a of the function is related to catchment properties, primarily the basin and glacier areas.

Description: Technical Note: Reducing the spin-up time of integrated surface water–groundwater models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 5169-5179, 2014 Author(s): H. Ajami, J. P. Evans, M. F. McCabe, and S. Stisen One of the main challenges in the application of coupled or integrated hydrologic models is specifying a catchment's initial conditions in terms of soil moisture and depth-to-water table (DTWT) distributions. One approach to reducing uncertainty in model initialization is to run the model recursively using either a single year or multiple years of forcing data until the system equilibrates with respect to state and diagnostic variables. However, such "spin-up" approaches often require many years of simulations, making them computationally intensive. In this study, a new hybrid approach was developed to reduce the computational burden of the spin-up procedure by using a combination of model simulations and an empirical DTWT function. The methodology is examined across two distinct catchments located in a temperate region of Denmark and a semi-arid region of Australia. Our results illustrate that the hybrid approach reduced the spin-up period required for an integrated groundwater–surface water–land surface model (ParFlow.CLM) by up to 50%. To generalize results to different climate and catchment conditions, we outline a methodology that is applicable to other coupled or integrated modeling frameworks when initialization from an equilibrium state is required.

Description: Hydrogeology of an Alpine rockfall aquifer system and its role in flood attenuation and maintaining baseflow Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4437-4452, 2014 Author(s): U. Lauber, P. Kotyla, D. Morche, and N. Goldscheider The frequency and intensity of extreme hydrological events in Alpine regions is projected to increase with climate change. The goal of this study is to better understand the functioning of aquifers composed of complex alluvial and rockfall deposits in Alpine valleys and to quantify the role of these natural storage spaces in flood attenuation and baseflow maintenance. Geomorphological and hydrogeological mapping, tracer tests, and continuous flow measurements were conducted in the Reintal (German Alps), where runoff from a karst spring infiltrates a series of postglacial alluvial/rockfall aquifers. During high-flow conditions, groundwater velocities of 30 m h −1 were determined along 500 m; hydrograph analyses revealed short lag times (5 h) between discharge peaks upstream and downstream from the aquifer series; the maximum discharge ratio downstream (22) and the peak recession coefficient (0.196 d −1 ) are low compared with other Alpine catchments. During low-flow conditions, the underground flow path length increased to 2 km and groundwater velocities decreased to 13 m h −1 . Downstream hydrographs revealed a delayed discharge response after 101 h and peaks damped by a factor of 1.5. These results indicate that alluvial/rockfall aquifers might play an important role in the flow regime and attenuation of floods in Alpine regions.

Description: Observed groundwater temperature response to recent climate change Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4453-4466, 2014 Author(s): K. Menberg, P. Blum, B. L. Kurylyk, and P. Bayer Climate change is known to have a considerable influence on many components of the hydrological cycle. Yet, the implications for groundwater temperature, as an important driver for groundwater quality, thermal use and storage, are not yet comprehensively understood. Furthermore, few studies have examined the implications of climate-change-induced groundwater temperature rise for groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Here, we examine the coupling of atmospheric and groundwater warming by employing stochastic and deterministic models. Firstly, several decades of temperature time series are statistically analyzed with regard to climate regime shifts (CRSs) in the long-term mean. The observed increases in shallow groundwater temperatures can be associated with preceding positive shifts in regional surface air temperatures, which are in turn linked to global air temperature changes. The temperature data are also analyzed with an analytical solution to the conduction–advection heat transfer equation to investigate how subsurface heat transfer processes control the propagation of the surface temperature signals into the subsurface. In three of the four monitoring wells, the predicted groundwater temperature increases driven by the regime shifts at the surface boundary condition generally concur with the observed groundwater temperature trends. Due to complex interactions at the ground surface and the heat capacity of the unsaturated zone, the thermal signals from distinct changes in air temperature are damped and delayed in the subsurface, causing a more gradual increase in groundwater temperatures. These signals can have a significant impact on large-scale groundwater temperatures in shallow and economically important aquifers. These findings demonstrate that shallow groundwater temperatures have responded rapidly to recent climate change and thus provide insight into the vulnerability of aquifers and groundwater-dependent ecosystems to future climate change.

Description: Evaluation of the satellite-based Global Flood Detection System for measuring river discharge: influence of local factors Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4467-4484, 2014 Author(s): B. Revilla-Romero, J. Thielen, P. Salamon, T. De Groeve, and G. R. Brakenridge One of the main challenges for global hydrological modelling is the limited availability of observational data for calibration and model verification. This is particularly the case for real-time applications. This problem could potentially be overcome if discharge measurements based on satellite data were sufficiently accurate to substitute for ground-based measurements. The aim of this study is to test the potentials and constraints of the remote sensing signal of the Global Flood Detection System for converting the flood detection signal into river discharge values. The study uses data for 322 river measurement locations in Africa, Asia, Europe, North America and South America. Satellite discharge measurements were calibrated for these sites and a validation analysis with in situ discharge was performed. The locations with very good performance will be used in a future project where satellite discharge measurements are obtained on a daily basis to fill the gaps where real-time ground observations are not available. These include several international river locations in Africa: the Niger, Volta and Zambezi rivers. Analysis of the potential factors affecting the satellite signal was based on a classification decision tree (random forest) and showed that mean discharge, climatic region, land cover and upstream catchment area are the dominant variables which determine good or poor performance of the measure\-ment sites. In general terms, higher skill scores were obtained for locations with one or more of the following characteristics: a river width higher than 1km; a large floodplain area and in flooded forest, a potential flooded area greater than 40%; sparse vegetation, croplands or grasslands and closed to open and open forest; leaf area index 〉 2; tropical climatic area; and without hydraulic infrastructures. Also, locations where river ice cover is seasonally present obtained higher skill scores. This work provides guidance on the best locations and limitations for estimating discharge values from these daily satellite signals.

Description: Technical Note: On the Matt–Shuttleworth approach to estimate crop water requirements Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4341-4348, 2014 Author(s): J. P. Lhomme, N. Boudhina, and M. M. Masmoudi The Matt–Shuttleworth method provides a way to make a one-step estimate of crop water requirements with the Penman–Monteith equation by translating the crop coefficients, commonly available in United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) publications, into equivalent surface resistances. The methodology is based upon the theoretical relationship linking crop surface resistance to a crop coefficient and involves the simplifying assumption that the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) is equal to the Priestley–Taylor estimate with a fixed coefficient of 1.26. This assumption, used to eliminate the dependence of surface resistance on certain weather variables, is questionable; numerical simulations show that it can lead to substantial differences between the true value of surface resistance and its estimate. Consequently, the basic relationship between surface resistance and crop coefficient, without any assumption, appears to be more appropriate for inferring crop surface resistance, despite the interference of weather variables.

Description: Variational assimilation of remotely sensed flood extents using a 2-D flood model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4325-4339, 2014 Author(s): X. Lai, Q. Liang, H. Yesou, and S. Daillet A variational data assimilation (4D-Var) method is proposed to directly assimilate flood extents into a 2-D dynamic flood model to explore a novel way of utilizing the rich source of remotely sensed data available from satellite imagery for better analyzing or predicting flood routing processes. For this purpose, a new cost function is specially defined to effectively fuse the hydraulic information that is implicitly indicated in flood extents. The potential of using remotely sensed flood extents for improving the analysis of flood routing processes is demonstrated by applying the present new data assimilation approach to both idealized and realistic numerical experiments.

Description: Translating aboveground cosmic-ray neutron intensity to high-frequency soil moisture profiles at sub-kilometer scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4363-4379, 2014 Author(s): R. Rosolem, T. Hoar, A. Arellano, J. L. Anderson, W. J. Shuttleworth, X. Zeng, and T. E. Franz Above-ground cosmic-ray neutron measurements provide an opportunity to infer soil moisture at the sub-kilometer scale. Initial efforts to assimilate those measurements have shown promise. This study expands such analysis by investigating (1) how the information from aboveground cosmic-ray neutrons can constrain the soil moisture at distinct depths simulated by a land surface model, and (2) how changes in data availability (in terms of retrieval frequency) impact the dynamics of simulated soil moisture profiles. We employ ensemble data assimilation techniques in a "nearly-identical twin" experiment applied at semi-arid shrubland, rainfed agricultural field, and mixed forest biomes in the USA. The performance of the Noah land surface model is compared with and without assimilation of observations at hourly intervals, as well as every 2 days. Synthetic observations of aboveground cosmic-ray neutrons better constrain the soil moisture simulated by Noah in root-zone soil layers (0–100cm), despite the limited measurement depth of the sensor (estimated to be 12–20cm). The ability of Noah to reproduce a "true" soil moisture profile is remarkably good, regardless of the frequency of observations at the semi-arid site. However, soil moisture profiles are better constrained when assimilating synthetic cosmic-ray neutron observations hourly rather than every 2 days at the cropland and mixed forest sites. This indicates potential benefits for hydrometeorological modeling when soil moisture measurements are available at a relatively high frequency. Moreover, differences in summertime meteorological forcing between the semi-arid site and the other two sites may indicate a possible controlling factor to soil moisture dynamics in addition to differences in soil and vegetation properties.

Description: Large-scale 3-D modeling by integration of resistivity models and borehole data through inversion Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4349-4362, 2014 Author(s): N. Foged, P. A. Marker, A. V. Christansen, P. Bauer-Gottwein, F. Jørgensen, A.-S. Høyer, and E. Auken We present an automatic method for parameterization of a 3-D model of the subsurface, integrating lithological information from boreholes with resistivity models through an inverse optimization, with the objective of further detailing of geological models, or as direct input into groundwater models. The parameter of interest is the clay fraction, expressed as the relative length of clay units in a depth interval. The clay fraction is obtained from lithological logs and the clay fraction from the resistivity is obtained by establishing a simple petrophysical relationship, a translator function, between resistivity and the clay fraction. Through inversion we use the lithological data and the resistivity data to determine the optimum spatially distributed translator function. Applying the translator function we get a 3-D clay fraction model, which holds information from the resistivity data set and the borehole data set in one variable. Finally, we use k -means clustering to generate a 3-D model of the subsurface structures. We apply the procedure to the Norsminde survey in Denmark, integrating approximately 700 boreholes and more than 100 000 resistivity models from an airborne survey in the parameterization of the 3-D model covering 156 km 2 . The final five-cluster 3-D model differentiates between clay materials and different high-resistivity materials from information held in the resistivity model and borehole observations, respectively.

Description: Regional parent flood frequency distributions in Europe – Part 2: Climate and scale controls Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4391-4401, 2014 Author(s): J. L. Salinas, A. Castellarin, S. Kohnová, and T. R. Kjeldsen This study aims to better understand the effect of catchment scale and climate on the statistical properties of regional flood frequency distributions. A database of L-moment ratios of annual maximum series (AMS) of peak discharges from Austria, Italy and Slovakia, involving a total of 813 catchments with more than 25 yr of record length is presented, together with mean annual precipitation (MAP) and basin area as catchment descriptors surrogates of climate and scale controls. A purely data-based investigation performed on the database shows that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution provides a better representation of the averaged sample L-moment ratios compared to the other distributions considered, for catchments with medium to higher values of MAP independently of catchment area, while the three-parameter lognormal distribution is probably a more appropriate choice for drier (lower MAP) intermediate-sized catchments, which presented higher skewness values. Sample L-moment ratios do not follow systematically any of the theoretical two-parameter distributions. In particular, the averaged values of L-coefficient of skewness (L-Cs) are always larger than Gumbel 's fixed L-Cs. The results presented in this paper contribute to the progress in defining a set of "process-driven" pan-European flood frequency distributions and to assess possible effects of environmental change on its properties.

Description: Quantification of hydrologic impacts of climate change in a Mediterranean basin in Sardinia, Italy, through high-resolution simulations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 5201-5217, 2014 Author(s): M. Piras, G. Mascaro, R. Deidda, and E. R. Vivoni Future climate projections robustly indicate that the Mediterranean region will experience a significant decrease of mean annual precipitation and an increase in temperature. These changes are expected to seriously affect the hydrologic regime, with a limitation of water availability and an intensification of hydrologic extremes, and to negatively impact local economies. In this study, we quantify the hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Rio Mannu basin (RMB), an agricultural watershed of 472.5 km 2 in Sardinia, Italy. To simulate the wide range of runoff generation mechanisms typical of Mediterranean basins, we adopted a physically based, distributed hydrologic model. The high-resolution forcings in reference and future conditions (30-year records for each period) were provided by four combinations of global and regional climate models, bias-corrected and downscaled in space and time (from ~25 km, 24 h to 5 km, 1 h) through statistical tools. The analysis of the hydrologic model outputs indicates that the RMB is expected to be severely impacted by future climate change. The range of simulations consistently predict (i) a significant diminution of mean annual runoff at the basin outlet, mainly due to a decreasing contribution of the runoff generation mechanisms depending on water available in the soil; (ii) modest variations in mean annual runoff and intensification of mean annual discharge maxima in flatter sub-basins with clay and loamy soils, likely due to a higher occurrence of infiltration excess runoff; (iii) reduction of soil water content and actual evapotranspiration in most areas of the basin; and (iv) a drop in the groundwater table. Results of this study are useful to support the adoption of adaptive strategies for management and planning of agricultural activities and water resources in the region.

Description: Assessing winter cover crop nutrient uptake efficiency using a water quality simulation model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 5239-5253, 2014 Author(s): I.-Y. Yeo, S. Lee, A. M. Sadeghi, P. C. Beeson, W. D. Hively, G. W. McCarty, and M. W. Lang Winter cover crops are an effective conservation management practice with potential to improve water quality. Throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW), which is located in the mid-Atlantic US, winter cover crop use has been emphasized, and federal and state cost-share programs are available to farmers to subsidize the cost of cover crop establishment. The objective of this study was to assess the long-term effect of planting winter cover crops to improve water quality at the watershed scale (~ 50 km 2 ) and to identify critical source areas of high nitrate export. A physically based watershed simulation model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was calibrated and validated using water quality monitoring data to simulate hydrological processes and agricultural nutrient cycling over the period of 1990–2000. To accurately simulate winter cover crop biomass in relation to growing conditions, a new approach was developed to further calibrate plant growth parameters that control the leaf area development curve using multitemporal satellite-based measurements of species-specific winter cover crop performance. Multiple SWAT scenarios were developed to obtain baseline information on nitrate loading without winter cover crops and to investigate how nitrate loading could change under different winter cover crop planting scenarios, including different species, planting dates, and implementation areas. The simulation results indicate that winter cover crops have a negligible impact on the water budget but significantly reduce nitrate leaching to groundwater and delivery to the waterways. Without winter cover crops, annual nitrate loading from agricultural lands was approximately 14 kg ha −1 , but decreased to 4.6–10.1 kg ha −1 with cover crops resulting in a reduction rate of 27–67% at the watershed scale. Rye was the most effective species, with a potential to reduce nitrate leaching by up to 93% with early planting at the field scale. Early planting of cover crops (~ 30 days of additional growing days) was crucial, as it lowered nitrate export by an additional ~ 2 kg ha −1 when compared to late planting scenarios. The effectiveness of cover cropping increased with increasing extent of cover crop implementation. Agricultural fields with well-drained soils and those that were more frequently used to grow corn had a higher potential for nitrate leaching and export to the waterways. This study supports the effective implementation of cover crop programs, in part by helping to target critical pollution source areas for cover crop implementation.

Description: Derivation and evaluation of landslide-triggering thresholds by a Monte Carlo approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4913-4931, 2014 Author(s): D. J. Peres and A. Cancelliere Assessment of landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds is useful for early warning in prone areas. In this paper, it is shown how stochastic rainfall models and hydrological and slope stability physically based models can be advantageously combined in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to generate virtually unlimited-length synthetic rainfall and related slope stability factor of safety data, exploiting the information contained in observed rainfall records and field-measurements of soil hydraulic and geotechnical parameters. The synthetic data set, dichotomized in triggering and non-triggering rainfall events, is analyzed by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis to derive stochastic-input physically based thresholds that optimize the trade-off between correct and wrong predictions. Moreover, the specific modeling framework implemented in this work, based on hourly analysis, enables one to analyze the uncertainty related to variability of rainfall intensity within events and to past rainfall (antecedent rainfall). A specific focus is dedicated to the widely used power-law rainfall intensity–duration ( I – D ) thresholds. Results indicate that variability of intensity during rainfall events influences significantly rainfall intensity and duration associated with landslide triggering. Remarkably, when a time-variable rainfall-rate event is considered, the simulated triggering points may be separated with a very good approximation from the non-triggering ones by a I – D power-law equation, while a representation of rainfall as constant–intensity hyetographs globally leads to non-conservative results. This indicates that the I – D power-law equation is adequate to represent the triggering part due to transient infiltration produced by rainfall events of variable intensity and thus gives a physically based justification for this widely used threshold form, which provides results that are valid when landslide occurrence is mostly due to that part. These conditions are more likely to occur in hillslopes of low specific upslope contributing area, relatively high hydraulic conductivity and high critical wetness ratio. Otherwise, rainfall time history occurring before single rainfall events influences landslide triggering, determining whether a threshold based only on rainfall intensity and duration may be sufficient or it needs to be improved by the introduction of antecedent rainfall variables. Further analyses show that predictability of landslides decreases with soil depth, critical wetness ratio and the increase of vertical basal drainage (leakage) that occurs in the presence of a fractured bedrock.

Description: Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River basin: habitat implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4897-4912, 2014 Author(s): D. L. Ficklin, B. L. Barnhart, J. H. Knouft, I. T. Stewart, E. P. Maurer, S. L. Letsinger, and G. W. Whittaker Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitats in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species' responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled general circulation model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature for the late 21st century at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River basin (CRB). On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil water flow, and groundwater inflow, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the ecological province and season. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the habitat regulating the distribution and diversity of aquatic taxa.

Description: Impact of changes in grain size and pore space on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization response of sand Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1785-1794, 2011 Author(s): K. Koch, A. Kemna, J. Irving, and K. Holliger Understanding the influence of pore space characteristics on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization (SIP) response is critical for establishing relationships between the electrical and hydrological properties of surficial unconsolidated sedimentary deposits, which host the bulk of the world's readily accessible groundwater resources. Here, we present the results of laboratory SIP measurements on industrial-grade, saturated quartz samples with granulometric characteristics ranging from fine sand to fine gravel. We altered the pore space characteristics by changing (i) the grain size spectra, (ii) the degree of compaction, and (iii) the level of sorting. We then examined how these changes affect the SIP response, the hydraulic conductivity, and the specific surface area of the considered samples. In general, the results indicate a clear connection between the SIP response and the granulometric as well as pore space characteristics. In particular, we observe a systematic correlation between the hydraulic conductivity and the relaxation time of the Cole-Cole model describing the observed SIP effect for the entire range of considered grain sizes. The results do, however, also indicate that the detailed nature of these relations depends strongly on variations in the pore space characteristics, such as, for example, the degree of compaction. This underlines the complexity of the origin of the SIP signal as well as the difficulty to relate it to a single structural factor of a studied sample, and hence raises some fundamental questions with regard to the practical use of SIP measurements as site- and/or sample-independent predictors of the hydraulic conductivity.

Description: WRF simulation of a precipitation event over the Tibetan Plateau, China – an assessment using remote sensing and ground observations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1795-1817, 2011 Author(s): F. Maussion, D. Scherer, R. Finkelnburg, J. Richters, W. Yang, and T. Yao Meteorological observations over the Tibetan Plateau (TiP) are scarce, and precipitation estimations over this remote region are difficult. The constantly improving capabilities of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models offer the opportunity to reduce this problem by providing precipitation fields and other meteorological variables of high spatial and temporal resolution. Longer time periods of years to decades can be simulated by NWP models by successive model runs of shorter periods, which can be described by the term "regional atmospheric reanalysis". In this paper, we assess the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models capacity in retrieving rain- and snowfall on the TiP in such a configuration using a nested approach: the simulations are conducted with three nested domains at spatial resolutions of 30, 10, and 2 km. A validation study is carried out for a one-month period with a special focus on one-week (22–28 October 2008), during which strong rain- and snowfall was observed on the TiP. The output of the model in each resolution is compared to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data set for precipitation and to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data set for snow extent. TRMM and WRF data are then compared to weather-station measurements. Our results suggest an overall improvement from WRF over TRMM with respect to weather-station measurements. Various configurations of the model with different nesting and forcing strategies, as well as physical parameterisation schemes are compared to propose a suitable design for a regional atmospheric reanalysis over the TiP. The WRF model showed good accuracy in simulating snow- and rainfall on the TiP for a one-month simulation period. Our study reveals that there is nothing like an optimal model strategy applicable for the high-altitude TiP, its fringing high-mountain areas of extremely complex topography and the low-altitude land and sea regions from which much of the precipitation on the TiP is originating. The choice of the physical parameterisation scheme will thus be always a compromise depending on the specific purpose of a model simulation. Our study demonstrates the high importance of orographic precipitation, but the problem of the orographic bias remains unsolved since reliable observational data are still missing. The results are relevant for anyone interested in carrying out a regional atmospheric reanalysis. Many hydrological analyses and applications like rainfall-runoff modelling or the analysis of flood events require precipitation rates at daily or even hourly intervals. Thus, our study offers a process-oriented alternative for retrieving precipitation fields of high spatio-temporal resolution in regions like the TiP, where other data sources are limited.

Description: Spatio-temporal variations in soil moisture and physicochemical properties of a typical semiarid sand-meadow-desert landscape as influenced by land use Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1865-1877, 2011 Author(s): L. Duan, T. Liu, X. Wang, G. Wang, L. Ma, and Y. Luo A good understanding of the interrelations between land cover alteration and changes in hydrologic conditions (e.g., soil moisture) as well as soil physicochemical properties (e.g., fine soil particles and nutrients) is crucial for maintaining the fragile hydrologic and environmental conditions of semiarid land, such as the Horqin Sandy Land in China, but is lacking in existing literature. The objectives of this study were to examine: (1) spatio-temporal variations of soil moisture and physicochemical properties in semiarid land; and (2) how those variations are influenced by land cover alteration. Using the data collected in a 9.71 km 2 well-instrumented area of the Horqin Sandy Land, this study examined by visual examination and statistical analyses the spatio-temporal variations of soil moisture and physicochemical properties. The results indicated that for the study area, the soil moisture and physicochemical properties were dependent on local topography, soil texture, vegetation density, and human activity. Long-term reclamation for agriculture was found to reduce soil moisture by over 23 % and significantly (p-value 〈 0.05) lower the contents of soil organic matter, fine soil particles, and nutrients.

Description: Anatomy of extraordinary rainfall and flash flood in a Dutch lowland catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1991-2005, 2011 Author(s): C. C. Brauer, A. J. Teuling, A. Overeem, Y. van der Velde, P. Hazenberg, P. M. M. Warmerdam, and R. Uijlenhoet On 26 August 2010 the eastern part of The Netherlands and the bordering part of Germany were struck by a series of rainfall events lasting for more than a day. Over an area of 740 km 2 more than 120 mm of rainfall were observed in 24 h. This extreme event resulted in local flooding of city centres, highways and agricultural fields, and considerable financial loss. In this paper we report on the unprecedented flash flood triggered by this exceptionally heavy rainfall event in the 6.5 km 2 Hupsel Brook catchment, which has been the experimental watershed employed by Wageningen University since the 1960s. This study aims to improve our understanding of the dynamics of such lowland flash floods. We present a detailed hydrometeorological analysis of this extreme event, focusing on its synoptic meteorological characteristics, its space-time rainfall dynamics as observed with rain gauges, weather radar and a microwave link, as well as the measured soil moisture, groundwater and discharge response of the catchment. At the Hupsel Brook catchment 160 mm of rainfall was observed in 24 h, corresponding to an estimated return period of well over 1000 years. As a result, discharge at the catchment outlet increased from 4.4 × 10 −3 to nearly 5 m 3 s −1 . Within 7 h discharge rose from 5 × 10 −2 to 4.5 m 3 s −1 . The catchment response can be divided into four phases: (1) soil moisture reservoir filling, (2) groundwater response, (3) surface depression filling and surface runoff and (4) backwater feedback. The first 35 mm of rainfall were stored in the soil without a significant increase in discharge. Relatively dry initial conditions (in comparison to those for past discharge extremes) prevented an even faster and more extreme hydrological response.

Description: On the value of combined event runoff and tracer analysis to improve understanding of catchment functioning in a data-scarce semi-arid area Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 2007-2024, 2011 Author(s): M. Hrachowitz, R. Bohte, M. L. Mul, T. A. Bogaard, H. H. G. Savenije, and S. Uhlenbrook Hydrological processes in small catchments are not quite understood yet, which is true in particular for catchments in data scarce, semi-arid regions. This is in contrast with the need for a better understanding of water fluxes and the interactions between surface- and groundwater in order to facilitate sustainable water resources management in such environments, where both floods and droughts can result in severe crop loss. In this study, event runoff coefficient analysis and limited tracer data of four small, nested sub-catchments (0.4–25.3 km 2 ) in a data scarce, semi-arid region of Tanzania helped to characterize the distinct response of the study catchments and to gain insights into the dominant runoff processes. The estimated event runoff coefficients were very low and did not exceed 0.09. They were found to be significantly related to the 5-day antecedent precipitation totals as well as to base flow, indicating a close relation to changes in soil moisture and thus potential switches in runoff generation processes. The time scales of the "direct flow" reservoirs, used to compute the event runoff coefficients, were up to one order of magnitude reduced for extreme events, compared to "average" events, suggesting the activation of at least a third flow component, besides base- and direct flow, assumed to be infiltration overland flow. Analysis of multiple tracers highlighted the importance of pre-event water to total runoff, even during intense and high yield precipitation events. It further illustrated the distinct nature of the catchments, in particular with respect to the available water storage, which was suggested by different degrees of tracer damping in the individual streams. The use of multiple tracers subsequently allowed estimating uncertainties in hydrograph separations arising from the use of different tracers. The results highlight the presence of considerable uncertainties, emphasizing the need for multiple tracers in order to avoid misleading results. This study shows the value of hydrological data collection over one whole wet season using multi-tracers to improve the understanding of hydrological functioning and thus for water resources management in data scarce, semi-arid environments.

Description: Changes in land cover, rainfall and stream flow in Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment, Blue Nile basin – Ethiopia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1979-1989, 2011 Author(s): T. H. M. Rientjes, A. T. Haile, E. Kebede, C. M. M. Mannaerts, E. Habib, and T. S. Steenhuis In this study we evaluated changes in land cover and rainfall in the Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment in the Upper Blue Nile basin and how changes affected stream flow in terms of annual flow, high flows and low flows. Land cover change assessment was through classification analysis of remote sensing based land cover data while assessments on rainfall and stream flow data are by statistical analysis. Results of the supervised land cover classification analysis indicated that 50.9 % and 16.7 % of the catchment area was covered by forest in 1973 and 2001, respectively. This significant decrease in forest cover is mainly due to expansion of agricultural land. By use of a change detection procedure, three periods were identified for which changes in rainfall and stream flow were analyzed. Rainfall was analyzed at monthly base by use of the Mann-Kendall test statistic and results indicated a statistically significant, decreasing trend for most months of the year. However, for the wet season months of June, July and August rainfall has increased. In the period 1973–2005, the annual flow of the catchment decreased by 12.1 %. Low flow and high flow at daily base were analyzed by a low flow and a high flow index that is based on a 95 % and 5 % exceedance probability. Results of the low flow index indicated decreases of 18.1 % and 66.6 % for the periods 1982–2000 and 2001–2005 respectively. Results of high flows indicated an increase of 7.6 % and 46.6 % for the same periods. In this study it is concluded that over the period 1973–2005 stream flow has changed in the Gilgel Abbay catchment by changes in land cover and changes in rainfall.

Description: Hydropedological insights when considering catchment classification Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1909-1919, 2011 Author(s): J. Bouma, P. Droogers, M. P. W. Sonneveld, C. J. Ritsema, J. E. Hunink, W. W. Immerzeel, and S. Kauffman Soil classification systems are analysed to explore the potential of developing classification systems for catchments. Soil classifications are useful to create systematic order in the overwhelming quantity of different soils in the world and to extrapolate data available for a given soil type to soils elsewhere with identical classifications. This principle also applies to catchments. However, to be useful, soil classifications have to be based on permanent characteristics as formed by the soil forming factors over often very long periods of time. When defining permanent catchment characteristics, discharge data would therefore appear to be less suitable. But permanent soil characteristics do not necessarily match with characteristics and parameters needed for functional soil characterization focusing, for example, on catchment hydrology. Hydropedology has made contributions towards the required functional characterization of soils as is illustrated for three recent hydrological catchment studies. However, much still needs to be learned about the physical behaviour of anisotropic, heterogeneous soils with varying soil structures during the year and about spatial and temporal variability. The suggestion is made therefore to first focus on improving simulation of catchment hydrology, possibly incorporating hydropedological expertise, before embarking on a catchment classification effort which involves major input of time and involves the risk of distraction. In doing so, we suggest to also define other characteristics for catchment performance than the traditionally measured discharge rates. Such characteristics may well be derived from societal issues being studied, as is illustrated for the Green Water Credits program.

Description: Quantifying spatial and temporal discharge dynamics of an event in a first order stream, using distributed temperature sensing Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1945-1957, 2011 Author(s): M. C. Westhoff, T. A. Bogaard, and H. H. G. Savenije Understanding the spatial distribution of discharge can be important for water quality and quantity modeling. Non-steady flood waves can, particularly as a result of short high intensity summer rainstorms, influence small headwater streams significantly. The aim of this paper is to quantify the spatial and temporal dynamics of stream flow in a headwater stream during a summer rainstorm. These dynamics include gains and losses of stream water, the effect of bypasses that become active and hyporheic exchange fluxes that may vary over time as a function of discharge. We use an advection-dispersion model coupled with an energy balance model to simulate in-stream water temperature, which we compare with high resolution temperature observations obtained with Distributed Temperature Sensing. This model was used as a learning tool to stepwise unravel the complex puzzle of in-stream processes subject to varying discharge. Hypotheses were tested and rejected, which led to more insight in the spatial and temporal dynamics in discharge and hyporheic exchange processes. We showed that, for the studied stream infiltration losses increase during a small rain event, while gains of water remained constant over time. We conclude that, eventually, part of the stream water bypassed the main channel during peak discharge. It also seems that hyporheic exchange varies with varying discharge in the first 250 m of the stream; while further downstream it remains constant. Because we relied on solar radiation as the main energy input, we were only able to apply this method during a small summer storm and low flow conditions. However, when additional (artificial) energy is available, the presented method is also applicable in larger streams, during higher flow conditions or longer storms.

Description: Trend analysis of extreme precipitation in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia with a case study of Debre Markos Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1937-1944, 2011 Author(s): H. Shang, J. Yan, M. Gebremichael, and S. M. Ayalew Understanding extreme precipitation is very important for Ethiopia, which is heavily dependent on low-productivity rainfed agriculture but lacks structural and non-structural water regulating and storage mechanisms. There has been an increasing concern about whether there is an increasing trend in extreme precipitation as the climate changes. Existing analysis of this region has been descriptive, without taking advantage of the advances in extreme value modeling. After reviewing the statistical methodology on extremes, this paper presents an analysis based on the generalized extreme value modeling with daily time series of precipitation records at Debre Markos in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia. We found no strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis that there is no increasing trend in extreme precipitation at this location.

Description: A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 2025-2038, 2011 Author(s): D. Anghileri, F. Pianosi, and R. Soncini-Sessa While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The specific features of our approach are that: (i) the impact quantification is based on a set of performance indicators defined together with the stakeholders, thus explicitly taking into account the water-users preferences; (ii) the management policies are obtained by optimal control techniques, linking stakeholder expectations and decision-making; (iii) the multi-objective nature of the management problem is fully preserved by simulating a set of Pareto-optimal management policies, which allows for evaluating not only variations in the indicator values but also tradeoffs among conflicting objectives. The framework is demonstrated by application to a real world case study, Lake Como basin (Italy). We show that the most conflicting water-related activities within the basin (i.e. hydropower production and agriculture) are likely to be negatively impacted by climate change. We discuss the robustness of the estimated impacts to the climate natural variability and the approximations in modeling the physical system and the socio-economic system, and perform an uncertainty analysis of several sources of uncertainty. We demonstrate that the contribution of natural climate uncertainty is rather remarkable and that, among different modelling uncertainty sources, the one from climate modeling is very significant.

Description: Macroinvertebrate community responses to a dewatering disturbance gradient in a restored stream Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1771-1783, 2011 Author(s): J. D. Muehlbauer, M. W. Doyle, and E. S. Bernhardt Dewatering disturbances are common in aquatic systems and represent a relatively untapped field of disturbance ecology, yet studying dewatering events along gradients in non-dichotomous (i.e. wet/dry) terms is often difficult. Because many stream restorations can essentially be perceived as planned hydrologic manipulations, such systems can make ideal test-cases for understanding processes of hydrological disturbance. In this study we used an experimental drawdown in a 440 ha stream/wetland restoration site to assess aquatic macroinvertebrate community responses to dewatering and subsequent rewetting. The geomorphic nature of the site and the design of the restoration allowed dewatering to occur predictably along a gradient and decoupled the hydrologic response from any geomorphic (i.e. habitat heterogeneity) effects. In the absence of such heterogeneous habitat refugia, reach-scale wetted perimeter and depth conditions exerted a strong control on community structure. The community exhibited an incremental response to dewatering severity over the course of this disturbance, which was made manifest not as a change in community means but as an increase in community variability, or dispersion, at each site. The dewatering also affected inter-species abundance and distributional patterns, as dewatering and rewetting promoted alternate species groups with divergent habitat tolerances. Finally, our results indicate that rapid rewetting – analogous to a hurricane breaking a summer drought – may represent a recovery process rather than an additional disturbance and that such processes, even in newly restored systems, may be rapid.

Description: The geomorphic structure of the runoff peak Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1853-1863, 2011 Author(s): R. Rigon, P. D'Odorico, and G. Bertoldi This paper develops a theoretical framework to investigate the core dependence of peak flows on the geomorphic properties of river basins. Based on the theory of transport by travel times, and simple hydrodynamic characterization of floods, this new framework invokes the linearity and invariance of the hydrologic response to provide analytical and semi-analytical expressions for peak flow, time to peak, and area contributing to the peak runoff. These results are obtained for the case of constant-intensity hyetograph using the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves to estimate extreme flow values as a function of the rainfall return period. Results show that, with constant-intensity hyetographs, the time-to-peak is greater than rainfall duration and usually shorter than the basin concentration time. Moreover, the critical storm duration is shown to be independent of rainfall return period as well as the area contributing to the flow peak. The same results are found when the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion are accounted for. Further, it is shown that, when the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion are negligible, the basin area contributing to the peak discharge does not depend on the channel velocity, but is a geomorphic propriety of the basin. As an example this framework is applied to three watersheds. In particular, the runoff peak, the critical rainfall durations and the time to peak are calculated for all links within a network to assess how they increase with basin area.

Description: Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1895-1907, 2011 Author(s): G. Ibarra-Berastegi, J. Saénz, A. Ezcurra, A. Elías, J. Diaz Argandoña, and I. Errasti In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961–2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961–1996) and a test period (1997–2001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Description: The influence of constrained fossil fuel emissions scenarios on climate and water resource projections Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1879-1893, 2011 Author(s): J. D. Ward, A. D. Werner, W. P. Nel, and S. Beecham Water resources planning requires long-term projections of the impact of climate change on freshwater resources. In addition to intrinsic uncertainty associated with the natural climate, projections of climate change are subject to the combined uncertainties associated with selection of emissions scenarios, GCM ensembles and downscaling techniques. In particular, unknown future greenhouse gas emissions contribute substantially to the overall uncertainty. We contend that a reduction in uncertainty is possible by refining emissions scenarios. We present a comprehensive review of the growing body of literature that challenges the assumptions underlying the high-growth emissions scenarios (widely used in climate change impact studies), and instead points to a peak and decline in fossil fuel production occurring in the 21st century. We find that the IPCC's new RCP 4.5 scenario (low-medium emissions), as well as the B1 and A1T (low emissions) marker scenarios from the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios are broadly consistent with the majority of recent fossil fuel production forecasts, whereas the medium to high emissions scenarios generally depend upon unrealistic assumptions of future fossil fuel production. We use a simple case study of projected climate change in 2070 for the Scott Creek catchment in South Australia to demonstrate that even with the current suite of climate models, by limiting projections to the B1 scenario, both the median change and the spread of model results are reduced relative to equivalent projections under an unrealistic high emissions scenario (A1FI).

Description: Data-driven catchment classification: application to the pub problem Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1921-1935, 2011 Author(s): M. Di Prinzio, A. Castellarin, and E. Toth A promising approach to catchment classification makes use of unsupervised neural networks (Self Organising Maps, SOM's), which organise input data through non-linear techniques depending on the intrinsic similarity of the data themselves. Our study considers ∼300 Italian catchments scattered nationwide, for which several descriptors of the streamflow regime and geomorphoclimatic characteristics are available. We compare a reference classification, identified by using indices of the streamflow regime as input to SOM, with four alternative classifications, which were identified on the basis of catchment descriptors that can be derived for ungauged basins. One alternative classification adopts the available catchment descriptors as input to SOM, the remaining classifications are identified by applying SOM to sets of derived variables obtained by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) to the available catchment descriptors. The comparison is performed relative to a PUB problem, that is for predicting several streamflow indices in ungauged basins. We perform an extensive cross-validation to quantify nationwide the accuracy of predictions of mean annual runoff, mean annual flood, and flood quantiles associated with given exceedance probabilities. Results of the study indicate that performing PCA and, in particular, CCA on the available set of catchment descriptors before applying SOM significantly improves the effectiveness of SOM classifications by reducing the uncertainty of hydrological predictions in ungauged sites.

Description: River flow time series using least squares support vector machines Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1835-1852, 2011 Author(s): R. Samsudin, P. Saad, and A. Shabri This paper proposes a novel hybrid forecasting model known as GLSSVM, which combines the group method of data handling (GMDH) and the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). The GMDH is used to determine the useful input variables which work as the time series forecasting for the LSSVM model. Monthly river flow data from two stations, the Selangor and Bernam rivers in Selangor state of Peninsular Malaysia were taken into consideration in the development of this hybrid model. The performance of this model was compared with the conventional artificial neural network (ANN) models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), GMDH and LSSVM models using the long term observations of monthly river flow discharge. The root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation ( R ) are used to evaluate the models' performances. In both cases, the new hybrid model has been found to provide more accurate flow forecasts compared to the other models. The results of the comparison indicate that the new hybrid model is a useful tool and a promising new method for river flow forecasting.

Description: Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1819-1833, 2011 Author(s): M. Renner and C. Bernhofer Recently, climatological studies report observational evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier timing of the annual cycle of surface temperature, earlier snow melt and earlier onset of the phenological spring season. Also hydrological studies report earlier timing and changes in monthly streamflows. From a water resources management perspective, there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins. Here, the timing of hydrological regimes from 1930–2009 was investigated in a network of 27 river gauges in Saxony/Germany through a timing measure derived by harmonic function approximation of annual periods of runoff ratio series. The timing measure proofed to be robust and equally applicable to both mainly pluvial river basins and snow melt dominated regimes. We found that the timing of runoff ratio is highly variable, but markedly coherent across the basins analysed. Differences in average timing are largely explained by basin elevation. Also the magnitude of low frequent changes in the seasonal timing of streamflow and the sensitivity to the changes in the timing of temperature increase with basin elevation. This sensitivity is in turn related to snow storage and release, whereby snow cover dynamics in late winter explain a large part of the low- and high-frequency variability. A trend analysis based on cumulative anomalies revealed a common structural break around the year 1988. While the timing of temperature shifted earlier by 4 days, accompanied by a temperature increase of 1 K, the timing of runoff ratio within higher basins shifted towards occurring earlier about 1 to 3 weeks. This accelerated and distinct change indicates, that impacts of climate change on the water cycle may be strongest in higher, snow melt dominated basins.

Description: Modelling the statistical dependence of rainfall event variables through copula functions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1959-1977, 2011 Author(s): M. Balistrocchi and B. Bacchi In many hydrological models, such as those derived by analytical probabilistic methods, the precipitation stochastic process is represented by means of individual storm random variables which are supposed to be independent of each other. However, several proposals were advanced to develop joint probability distributions able to account for the observed statistical dependence. The traditional technique of the multivariate statistics is nevertheless affected by several drawbacks, whose most evident issue is the unavoidable subordination of the dependence structure assessment to the marginal distribution fitting. Conversely, the copula approach can overcome this limitation, by dividing the problem in two distinct parts. Furthermore, goodness-of-fit tests were recently made available and a significant improvement in the function selection reliability has been achieved. Herein the dependence structure of the rainfall event volume, the wet weather duration and the interevent time is assessed and verified by test statistics with respect to three long time series recorded in different Italian climates. Paired analyses revealed a non negligible dependence between volume and duration, while the interevent period proved to be substantially independent of the other variables. A unique copula model seems to be suitable for representing this dependence structure, despite the sensitivity demonstrated by its parameter towards the threshold utilized in the procedure for extracting the independent events. The joint probability function was finally developed by adopting a Weibull model for the marginal distributions.

Description: Copula-based downscaling of spatial rainfall: a proof of concept Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1445-1457, 2011 Author(s): M. J. van den Berg, S. Vandenberghe, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest Fine-scale rainfall data is important for many hydrological applications. However, often the only data available is at a coarse scale. To bridge this gap in resolution, stochastic disaggregation methods can be used. Such methods generally assume that the distribution of the field is stationary, i.e. the distribution for the entire (fine-scale) field is the same as the distribution of a smaller region within the field. This assumption is generally incorrect and we provide a proof of concept of a method to estimate the distribution of a smaller region. In this method, a copula is used to construct a bivariate distribution describing the relation between the scales. This distribution is then used to estimate the distribution of the fine-scale rainfall within a single coarse-scale pixel, by conditioning on the coarse-scale rainfall depth.

Description: Estimations of tidal characteristics and aquifer parameters via tide-induced head changes in coastal observation wells Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1473-1482, 2011 Author(s): Y.-J. Chen, G.-Y. Chen, H.-D. Yeh, and D.-S. Jeng The groundwater fluctuations due to tidal variations at an observation well in a coastal aquifer can be used to determine the tidal characteristics and aquifer parameters without conducting an aquifer test. In this study, a method, comprised of Jeng et al.'s solution (2005) and simulated annealing (SA) algorithm, is developed to determine the coastal aquifer parameters (hydraulic diffusivity, beach slope, and aquifer thickness) as well as the tidal characteristics (bichromatic-tide amplitudes, bichromatic-tide wave frequencies, and tidal phase lag) from the analysis of the tide-induced well-water-level (WWL) data. The synthetic WWL data generated from Jeng et al.'s solution (2005) with assumed parameter values and field data obtained from Barrenjoey beach, Australia, are analyzed. The estimated parameter values obtained from analyzing synthetic WWL data by the present method show good agreements with the previously assumed parameter values. The parameter estimation procedure may however fail in the case of a large shallow water parameter which in fact violates the constraint on the use of Jeng et al.'s solution (2005). In the analysis of field WWL data, the results indicate that the aquifer parameters estimated from the present method with single or multiple well data are significantly different from those given in Nielsen (1990). Inspecting the observed WWL data and the WWL data predicted from Jeng et al.'s solution (2005) reveals that the present method may provide better estimations for the aquifer parameters than those given in Nielsen (1990).

Description: Regional scale analysis of landform configuration with base-level (isobase) maps Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1493-1504, 2011 Author(s): C. H. Grohmann, C. Riccomini, and M. A. C. Chamani Base-level maps (or "isobase maps", as originally defined by Filosofov, 1960), express a relationship between valley order and topography. The base-level map can be seen as a "simplified" version of the original topographic surface, from which the "noise" of the low-order stream erosion was removed. This method is able to identify areas with possible tectonic influence even within lithologically uniform domains. Base-level maps have been recently applied in semi-detail scale (e.g., 1:50 000 or larger) morphotectonic analysis. In this paper, we present an evaluation of the method's applicability in regional-scale analysis (e.g., 1:250 000 or smaller). A test area was selected in northern Brazil, at the lower course of the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers. The drainage network extracted from SRTM30_PLUS DEMs with spatial resolution of approximately 900 m was visually compared with available topographic maps and considered to be compatible with a 1:1,000 000 scale. Regarding the interpretation of regional-scale morphostructures, the map constructed with 2nd and 3rd-order valleys was considered to present the best results. Some of the interpreted base-level anomalies correspond to important shear zones and geological contacts present in the 1:5 000 000 Geological Map of South America. Others have no correspondence with mapped Precambrian structures and are considered to represent younger, probably neotectonic, features. A strong E-W orientation of the base-level lines over the inflexion of the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers, suggest a major drainage capture. A N-S topographic swath profile over the Tocantins and Araguaia rivers reveals a topographic pattern which, allied with seismic data showing a roughly N-S direction of extension in the area, lead us to interpret this lineament as an E-W, southward-dipping normal fault. There is also a good visual correspondence between the base-level lineaments and geophysical anomalies. A NW-SE lineament in the southeast of the study area partially corresponds to the northern border of the Mosquito lava field, of Jurassic age, and a NW-SE lineament traced in the northeastern sector of the study area can be interpreted as the Picos-Santa Inês lineament, identifiable in geophysical maps but with little expression in hypsometric or topographic maps.

Description: Evaluation of satellite rainfall estimates over Ethiopian river basins Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1505-1514, 2011 Author(s): T. G. Romilly and M. Gebremichael High resolution satellite-based rainfall estimates (SREs) have enormous potential for use in hydrological applications, particularly in the developing world as an alternative to conventional rain gauges which are typically sparse. In this study, three SREs have been evaluated against collocated rain gauge measurements in Ethiopia across six river basins that represent different rainfall regimes and topography. The comparison is made using five-year (2003–2007) averages, and results are stratified by river basin, elevation and season. The SREs considered are: the Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Neural Networks (PERSIANN) and the real-time version of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT. Overall, the microwave-based products TMPA 3B42RT and CMORPH outperform the infrared-based product PERSIANN: PERSIANN tends to underestimate rainfall by 43 %, while CMORPH tends to underestimate by 11 % and TMPA 3B42RT tends to overestimate by 5 %. The bias in the satellite rainfall estimates depends on the rainfall regime, and, in some regimes, the elevation. In the northwest region, which is characterized mainly by highland topography, a humid climate and a strong Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) effect, elevation has a strong influence on the accuracy of the SREs: TMPA 3B42RT and CMORPH tend to overestimate at low elevations but give reasonably accurate results at high elevations, whereas PERSIANN gives reasonably accurate values at low elevations but underestimates at high elevations. In the southeast region, which is characterized mainly by lowland topography, a semi-arid climate and southerly winds, elevation does not have a significant influence on the accuracy of the SREs, and all the SREs underestimate rainfall across almost all elevations.

Description: Increasing parameter certainty and data utility through multi-objective calibration of a spatially distributed temperature and solute model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1547-1561, 2011 Author(s): C. Bandaragoda and B. T. Neilson To support the goal of distributed hydrologic and instream model predictions based on physical processes, we explore multi-dimensional parameterization determined by a broad set of observations. We present a systematic approach to using various data types at spatially distributed locations to decrease parameter bounds sampled within calibration algorithms that ultimately provide information regarding the extent of individual processes represented within the model structure. Through the use of a simulation matrix, parameter sets are first locally optimized by fitting the respective data at one or two locations and then the best results are selected to resolve which parameter sets perform best at all locations, or globally. This approach is illustrated using the Two-Zone Temperature and Solute (TZTS) model for a case study in the Virgin River, Utah, USA, where temperature and solute tracer data were collected at multiple locations and zones within the river that represent the fate and transport of both heat and solute through the study reach. The result was a narrowed parameter space and increased parameter certainty which, based on our results, would not have been as successful if only single objective algorithms were used. We also found that the global optimum is best defined by multiple spatially distributed local optima, which supports the hypothesis that there is a discrete and narrowly bounded parameter range that represents the processes controlling the dominant hydrologic responses. Further, we illustrate that the optimization process itself can be used to determine which observed responses and locations are most useful for estimating the parameters that result in a global fit to guide future data collection efforts.

Description: The green, blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crop products Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1577-1600, 2011 Author(s): M. M. Mekonnen and A. Y. Hoekstra This study quantifies the green, blue and grey water footprint of global crop production in a spatially-explicit way for the period 1996–2005. The assessment improves upon earlier research by taking a high-resolution approach, estimating the water footprint of 126 crops at a 5 by 5 arc minute grid. We have used a grid-based dynamic water balance model to calculate crop water use over time, with a time step of one day. The model takes into account the daily soil water balance and climatic conditions for each grid cell. In addition, the water pollution associated with the use of nitrogen fertilizer in crop production is estimated for each grid cell. The crop evapotranspiration of additional 20 minor crops is calculated with the CROPWAT model. In addition, we have calculated the water footprint of more than two hundred derived crop products, including various flours, beverages, fibres and biofuels. We have used the water footprint assessment framework as in the guideline of the Water Footprint Network. Considering the water footprints of primary crops, we see that the global average water footprint per ton of crop increases from sugar crops (roughly 200 m 3 ton −1 ), vegetables (300 m 3 ton −1 ), roots and tubers (400 m 3 ton −1 ), fruits (1000 m 3 ton −1 ), cereals (1600 m 3 ton −1 ), oil crops (2400 m 3 ton −1 ) to pulses (4000 m 3 ton −1 ). The water footprint varies, however, across different crops per crop category and per production region as well. Besides, if one considers the water footprint per kcal, the picture changes as well. When considered per ton of product, commodities with relatively large water footprints are: coffee, tea, cocoa, tobacco, spices, nuts, rubber and fibres. The analysis of water footprints of different biofuels shows that bio-ethanol has a lower water footprint (in m 3 GJ −1 ) than biodiesel, which supports earlier analyses. The crop used matters significantly as well: the global average water footprint of bio-ethanol based on sugar beet amounts to 51 m 3 GJ −1 , while this is 121 m 3 GJ −1 for maize. The global water footprint related to crop production in the period 1996–2005 was 7404 billion cubic meters per year (78 % green, 12 % blue, 10 % grey). A large total water footprint was calculated for wheat (1087 Gm 3 yr −1 ), rice (992 Gm 3 yr −1 ) and maize (770 Gm 3 yr −1 ). Wheat and rice have the largest blue water footprints, together accounting for 45 % of the global blue water footprint. At country level, the total water footprint was largest for India (1047 Gm 3 yr −1 ), China (967 Gm 3 yr −1 ) and the USA (826 Gm 3 yr −1 ). A relatively large total blue water footprint as a result of crop production is observed in the Indus river basin (117 Gm 3 yr −1 ) and the Ganges river basin (108 Gm 3 yr −1 ). The two basins together account for 25 % of the blue water footprint related to global crop production. Globally, rain-fed agriculture has a water footprint of 5173 Gm 3 yr −1 (91 % green, 9 % grey); irrigated agriculture has a water footprint of 2230 Gm 3 yr −1 (48 % green, 40 % blue, 12 % grey).

Description: Mechanisms of vegetation uprooting by flow in alluvial non-cohesive sediment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1615-1627, 2011 Author(s): K. Edmaier, P. Burlando, and P. Perona The establishment of riparian pioneer vegetation is of crucial importance within river restoration projects. After germination or vegetative reproduction on river bars juvenile plants are often exposed to mortality by uprooting caused by floods. At later stages of root development vegetation uprooting by flow is seen to occur as a consequence of a marked erosion gradually exposing the root system and accordingly reducing the mechanical anchoring. How time scales of flow-induced uprooting do depend on vegetation stages growing in alluvial non-cohesive sediment is currently an open question that we conceptually address in this work. After reviewing vegetation root issues in relation to morphodynamic processes, we then propose two modelling mechanisms (Type I and Type II), respectively concerning the uprooting time scales of early germinated and of mature vegetation. Type I is a purely flow-induced drag mechanism, which causes alone a nearly instantaneous uprooting when exceeding root resistance. Type II arises as a combination of substantial sediment erosion exposing the root system and resulting in a decreased anchoring resistance, eventually degenerating into a Type I mechanism. We support our conceptual models with some preliminary experimental data and discuss the importance of better understanding such mechanisms in order to formulate sounding mathematical models that are suitable to plan and to manage river restoration projects.

Description: Results from a full coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model for a Danish catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4733-4749, 2014 Author(s): M. A. D. Larsen, J. C. Refsgaard, M. Drews, M. B. Butts, K. H. Jensen, J. H. Christensen, and O. B. Christensen A major challenge in the emerging research field of coupling of existing regional climate models (RCMs) and hydrology/land-surface models is the computational interaction between the models. Here we present results from a full two-way coupling of the HIRHAM RCM over a 4000 km × 2800 km domain at 11 km resolution and the combined MIKE SHE-SWET hydrology and land-surface models over the 2500 km 2 Skjern River catchment. A total of 26 one-year runs were performed to assess the influence of the data transfer interval (DTI) between the two models and the internal HIRHAM model variability of 10 variables. DTI frequencies between 12 and 120 min were assessed, where the computational overhead was found to increase substantially with increasing exchange frequency. In terms of hourly and daily performance statistics the coupled model simulations performed less accurately than the uncoupled simulations, whereas for longer-term cumulative precipitation the opposite was found, especially for more frequent DTI rates. Four of six output variables from HIRHAM, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and air temperature, showed statistically significant improvements in root-mean-square error (RMSE) by reducing the DTI. For these four variables, the HIRHAM RMSE variability corresponded to approximately half of the influence from the DTI frequency and the variability resulted in a large spread in simulated precipitation. Conversely, DTI was found to have only a limited impact on the energy fluxes and discharge simulated by MIKE SHE.

Description: High-resolution land surface modeling utilizing remote sensing parameters and the Noah UCM: a case study in the Los Angeles Basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4791-4806, 2014 Author(s): P. Vahmani and T. S. Hogue In the current work we investigate the utility of remote-sensing-based surface parameters in the Noah UCM (urban canopy model) over a highly developed urban area. Landsat and fused Landsat–MODIS data are utilized to generate high-resolution (30 m) monthly spatial maps of green vegetation fraction (GVF), impervious surface area (ISA), albedo, leaf area index (LAI), and emissivity in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. The gridded remotely sensed parameter data sets are directly substituted for the land-use/lookup-table-based values in the Noah-UCM modeling framework. Model performance in reproducing ET (evapotranspiration) and LST (land surface temperature) fields is evaluated utilizing Landsat-based LST and ET estimates from CIMIS (California Irrigation Management Information System) stations as well as in situ measurements. Our assessment shows that the large deviations between the spatial distributions and seasonal fluctuations of the default and measured parameter sets lead to significant errors in the model predictions of monthly ET fields (RMSE = 22.06 mm month −1 ). Results indicate that implemented satellite-derived parameter maps, particularly GVF, enhance the capability of the Noah UCM to reproduce observed ET patterns over vegetated areas in the urban domains (RMSE = 11.77 mm month −1 ). GVF plays the most significant role in reproducing the observed ET fields, likely due to the interaction with other parameters in the model. Our analysis also shows that remotely sensed GVF and ISA improve the model's capability to predict the LST differences between fully vegetated pixels and highly developed areas.

Description: Estimation of surface soil moisture and roughness from multi-angular ASAR imagery in the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (WATER) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1415-1426, 2011 Author(s): S. G. Wang, X. Li, X. J. Han, and R. Jin Radar remote sensing has demonstrated its applicability to the retrieval of basin-scale soil moisture. The mechanism of radar backscattering from soils is complicated and strongly influenced by surface roughness. Additionally, retrieval of soil moisture using AIEM (advanced integrated equation model)-like models is a classic example of underdetermined problem due to a lack of credible known soil roughness distributions at a regional scale. Characterization of this roughness is therefore crucial for an accurate derivation of soil moisture based on backscattering models. This study aims to simultaneously obtain surface roughness parameters (standard deviation of surface height σ and correlation length cl) along with soil moisture from multi-angular ASAR images by using a two-step retrieval scheme based on the AIEM. The method firstly used a semi-empirical relationship that relates the roughness slope, Zs ( Zs = σ 2 /cl) and the difference in backscattering coefficient (Δσ) from two ASAR images acquired with different incidence angles. Meanwhile, by using an experimental statistical relationship between σ and cl, both these parameters can be estimated. Then, the deduced roughness parameters were used for the retrieval of soil moisture in association with the AIEM. An evaluation of the proposed method was performed in an experimental area in the middle stream of the Heihe River Basin, where the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (WATER) was taken place. It is demonstrated that the proposed method is feasible to achieve reliable estimation of soil water content. The key challenge is the presence of vegetation cover, which significantly impacts the estimates of surface roughness and soil moisture.

Description: Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1427-1443, 2011 Author(s): A. F. Hamlet Climate change impacts in Pacific Northwest Region of North America (PNW) are projected to include increasing temperatures and changes in the seasonality of precipitation (increasing precipitation in winter, decreasing precipitation in summer). Changes in precipitation are also spatially varying, with the northwestern parts of the region generally experiencing greater increases in cool season precipitation than the southeastern parts. These changes in climate are projected to cause loss of snowpack and associated streamflow timing shifts which will increase cool season (October–March) flows and decrease warm season (April–September) flows and water availability. Hydrologic extremes such as the 100 yr flood and extreme low flows are also expected to change, although these impacts are not spatially homogeneous and vary with mid-winter temperatures and other factors. These changes have important implications for natural ecosystems affected by water, and for human systems. The PNW is endowed with extensive water resources infrastructure and well-established and well-funded management agencies responsible for ensuring that water resources objectives (such as water supply, water quality, flood control, hydropower production, environmental services, etc.) are met. Likewise, access to observed hydrological, meteorological, and climatic data and forecasts is in general exceptionally good in the United States and Canada, and is often supported by federally funded programs that ensure that these resources are freely available to water resources practitioners, policy makers, and the general public. Access to these extensive resources support the argument that at a technical level the PNW has high capacity to deal with the potential impacts of natural climate variability on water resources. To the extent that climate change will manifest itself as moderate changes in variability or extremes, we argue that existing water resources infrastructure and institutional arrangements provide a reasonably solid foundation for coping with climate change impacts, and that the mandates of existing water resources policy and water resources management institutions are at least consistent with the fundamental objectives of climate change adaptation. A deeper inquiry into the underlying nature of PNW water resources systems, however, reveals significant and persistent obstacles to climate change adaptation, which will need to be overcome if effective use of the region's extensive water resources management capacity can be brought to bear on this problem. Primary obstacles include assumptions of stationarity as the fundamental basis of water resources system design, entrenched use of historical records as the sole basis for planning, problems related to the relatively short time scale of planning, lack of familiarity with climate science and models, downscaling procedures, and hydrologic models, limited access to climate change scenarios and hydrologic products for specific water systems, and rigid water allocation and water resources operating rules that effectively block adaptive response. Institutional barriers include systematic loss of technical capacity in many water resources agencies following the dam building era, jurisdictional fragmentation affecting response to drought, disconnections between water policy and practice, and entrenched bureaucratic resistance to change in many water management agencies. These factors, combined with a federal agenda to block climate change policy in the US during the Bush administration have (with some exceptions) contributed to widespread institutional "gridlock" in the PNW over the last decade or so despite a growing awareness of climate change as a significant threat to water management. In the last several years, however, significant progress has been made in surmounting some of these obstacles, and the region's water resources agencies at all levels of governance are making progress in addressing the fundamental challenges inherent in adapting to climate change.

Description: Technical note on measuring run-off dynamics from pavements using a new device: the weighable tipping bucket Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1379-1386, 2011 Author(s): T. Nehls, Y. Nam Rim, and G. Wessolek Due to climate change, cities need to adapt to changing rainfall and rainwater run-off dynamics. In order to develop an corresponding process based run-off model for pavements, we had to improve the measurement technique to detect run-off dynamics in an appropriate high resolution. Traditional tipping buckets (TB) have a comparable low volume resolution, capable to quantify the highest intensities in a range of expected flows. This results in varying temporal resolutions for varying flow intensities, especially in low resolutions for small flow events. Therefore, their applicability for run-off measurements and other hydrological process studies is limited, especially when the dynamics of both small and big flow events shall be measured. We improved a TB by coupling it to a balance and called it weighable tipping bucket (WTB). This paper introduces the device set up and the according data processing concept. The improved volume and temporal resolution of the WTB are demonstrated. A systematic uncertainty of TB measurements compared to WTB measurements is calculated. The impact of that increased resolution on our understanding of run-off dynamics from paved urban soils are discussed, exemplary for the run-off and the surface storage of a paved urban soil. The study was conducted on a permeably paved lysimeter situated in Berlin, Germany. Referring to the paved surface, the TB has a resolution of 0.1 mm, while the WTB has a resolution of 0.001 mm. The temporal resolution of the WTB is 3 s, the TB detects individual tippings with 0.4 s between them. Therefore, the data processing concept combines both the benefits of the balance to measure small intensities with that of the TB to measure high flow intensities. During a five months period (July to November 2009) 154 rain events were detected. Accordingly, the TB and WTB detected 47 and 121 run-off events. The total run-off was 79.6 mm measured by the WTB which was 11 % higher than detected by the TB. 95 % of that difference can be appointed to water, which evaporated from the TB. To derive a surface storage estimation, we analyzed the WTB and TB data for rain events without run-off. According to WTB data, the surface storage of the permeable pavement is 1.7 mm, while using TB data leads to an overestimation of 47 % due to low volume resolution of the TB. Combining traditional TB with modern, fast, high resolution digital balances offers the opportunity to upgrade existing TB systems in order to improve their volume detection limit and their temporal resolution, which is of great advantage for the synchronization of water balance component measurements and the investigation of hydrological processes. Furthermore, we are able to quantify the uncertainty of flow measurements gained with traditional tipping buckets.

Description: Estimating surface fluxes over middle and upper streams of the Heihe River Basin with ASTER imagery Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1403-1413, 2011 Author(s): W. Ma, Y. Ma, Z. Hu, Z. Su, J. Wang, and H. Ishikawa Land surface heat fluxes are essential measures of the strengths of land-atmosphere interactions involving energy, heat and water. Correct parameterization of these fluxes in climate models is critical. Despite their importance, state-of-the-art observation techniques cannot provide representative areal averages of these fluxes comparable to the model grid. Alternative methods of estimation are thus required. These alternative approaches use (satellite) observables of the land surface conditions. In this study, the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) algorithm was evaluated in a cold and arid environment, using land surface parameters derived from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data. Field observations and estimates from SEBS were compared in terms of net radiation flux ( R n ), soil heat flux ( G 0 ), sensible heat flux ( H ) and latent heat flux (λ E ) over a heterogeneous land surface. As a case study, this methodology was applied to the experimental area of the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (WATER) project, located on the mid-to-upstream sections of the Heihe River in northwest China. ASTER data acquired between 3 May and 4 June 2008, under clear-sky conditions were used to determine the surface fluxes. Ground-based measurements of land surface heat fluxes were compared with values derived from the ASTER data. The results show that the derived surface variables and the land surface heat fluxes furnished by SEBS in different months over the study area are in good agreement with the observed land surface status under the limited cases (some cases looks poor results). So SEBS can be used to estimate turbulent heat fluxes with acceptable accuracy in areas where there is partial vegetation cover in exceptive conditions. It is very important to perform calculations using ground-based observational data for parameterization in SEBS in the future. Nevertheless, the remote-sensing results can provide improved explanations of land surface fluxes over varying land coverage at greater spatial scales.

Description: An objective approach for feature extraction: distribution analysis and statistical descriptors for scale choice and channel network identification Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1387-1402, 2011 Author(s): G. Sofia, P. Tarolli, F. Cazorzi, and G. Dalla Fontana A statistical approach to LiDAR derived topographic attributes for the automatic extraction of channel network and for the choice of the scale to apply for parameter evaluation is presented in this paper. The basis of this approach is to use distribution analysis and statistical descriptors to identify channels where terrain geometry denotes significant convergences. Two case study areas with different morphology and degree of organization are used with their 1 m LiDAR Digital Terrain Models (DTMs). Topographic attribute maps (curvature and openness) for various window sizes are derived from the DTMs in order to detect surface convergences. A statistical analysis on value distributions considering each window size is carried out for the choice of the optimum kernel. We propose a three-step method to extract the network based (a) on the normalization and overlapping of openness and minimum curvature to highlight the more likely surface convergences, (b) a weighting of the upslope area according to these normalized maps to identify drainage flow paths and flow accumulation consistent with terrain geometry, (c) the standard score normalization of the weighted upslope area and the use of standard score values as non subjective threshold for channel network identification. As a final step for optimal definition and representation of the whole network, a noise-filtering and connection procedure is applied. The advantage of the proposed methodology, and the efficiency and accurate localization of extracted features are demonstrated using LiDAR data of two different areas and comparing both extractions with field surveyed networks.

Description: Assessment of a vertical high-resolution distributed-temperature-sensing system in a shallow thermohaline environment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1081-1093, 2011 Author(s): F. Suárez, J. E. Aravena, M. B. Hausner, A. E. Childress, and S. W. Tyler In shallow thermohaline-driven lakes it is important to measure temperature on fine spatial and temporal scales to detect stratification or different hydrodynamic regimes. Raman spectra distributed temperature sensing (DTS) is an approach available to provide high spatial and temporal temperature resolution. A vertical high-resolution DTS system was constructed to overcome the problems of typical methods used in the past, i.e., without disturbing the water column, and with resistance to corrosive environments. This paper describes a method to quantitatively assess accuracy, precision and other limitations of DTS systems to fully utilize the capacity of this technology, with a focus on vertical high-resolution to measure temperatures in shallow thermohaline environments. It also presents a new method to manually calibrate temperatures along the optical fiber achieving significant improved resolution. The vertical high-resolution DTS system is used to monitor the thermal behavior of a salt-gradient solar pond, which is an engineered shallow thermohaline system that allows collection and storage of solar energy for a long period of time. The vertical high-resolution DTS system monitors the temperature profile each 1.1 cm vertically and in time averages as small as 10 s. Temperature resolution as low as 0.035 °C is obtained when the data are collected at 5-min intervals.

Description: South African Weather Service operational satellite based precipitation estimation technique: applications and improvements Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1131-1145, 2011 Author(s): E. de Coning and E. Poolman Extreme weather related to heavy or more frequent precipitation events seem to be a likely possibility for the future of our planet. While precipitation measurements can be done by means of rain gauges, the obvious disadvantages of point measurements are driving meteorologists towards remotely sensed precipitation methods. In South Africa more sophisticated and expensive nowcasting technology such as radar and lightning networks are available, supported by a fairly dense rain gauge network of about 1500 daily gauges. In the rest of southern Africa rainfall measurements are more difficult to obtain. The local version of the Unified Model and the Meteosat Second Generation satellite data are ideal components of precipitation estimation in data sparse regions such as Africa. In South Africa hourly accumulations of the Hydroestimator (originally from NOAA/NESDIS) are currently used as a satellite based precipitation estimator for the South African Flash Flood Guidance system, especially in regions which are not covered by radar. In this study the Hydroestimator and the stratiform rainfall field from the Unified Model are both bias corrected and then combined into a new precipitation field. The new product was tested over a two year period and provides a more accurate and comprehensive input to the Flash Flood Guidance systems in the data sparse southern Africa. Future work will include updating the period over which bias corrections were calculated.

Description: Impact of climate change on groundwater point discharge: backflooding of karstic springs (Loiret, France) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 2459-2470, 2011 Author(s): E. Joigneaux, P. Albéric, H. Pauwels, C. Pagé, L. Terray, and A. Bruand Under certain hydrological conditions it is possible for spring flow in karst systems to be reversed. When this occurs, the resulting invasion by surface water, i.e. the backflooding, represents a serious threat to groundwater quality because the surface water could well be contaminated. Here we examine the possible impact of future climate change on the occurrences of backflooding in a specific karst system, having first established the occurrence of such events in the selected study area over the past 40 years. It would appear that backflooding has been more frequent since the 1980s, and that it is apparently linked to river flow variability on the pluri-annual scale. The avenue that we adopt here for studying recent and future variations of these events is based on a downscaling algorithm relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to local precipitation spatial patterns. The large-scale atmospheric circulation is viewed as a set of quasi-stationary and recurrent states, called weather types, and its variability as the transition between them. Based on a set of climate model projections, simulated changes in weather-type occurrence for the end of the century suggests that backflooding events can be expected to decrease in 2075–2099. If such is the case, then the potential risk for groundwater quality in the area will be greatly reduced compared to the current situation. Finally, our results also show the potential interest of the weather-type based downscaling approach for examining the impact of climate change on hydrological systems.

Description: Estimation of soil moisture using trapezoidal relationship between remotely sensed land surface temperature and vegetation index Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1699-1712, 2011 Author(s): W. Wang, D. Huang, X.-G. Wang, Y.-R. Liu, and F. Zhou The trapezoidal relationship between land surface temperature ( T s ) and Vegetation Index (VI) was used to estimate soil moisture in the present study. An iterative algorithm is proposed to estimate the vertices of the T s ~ VI trapezoid theoretically for each pixel, and then Water Deficit Index (WDI) is calculated based on the T s ~ VI trapezoid using MODIS remotely sensed measurements of surface temperature and enhanced vegetation index (EVI). The capability of using WDI based on T s ~ VI trapezoid to estimate soil moisture is evaluated using soil moisture observations and antecedent precipitation in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in Arizona, USA. The result shows that, the T s ~ VI trapezoid based WDI can capture temporal variation in surface soil moisture well, but the capability of detecting spatial variation is poor for such a semi-arid region as WGEW.

Description: Runoff regime estimation at high-elevation sites: a parsimonious water balance approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1661-1673, 2011 Author(s): E. Bartolini, P. Allamano, F. Laio, and P. Claps We develop a water balance model, parsimonious both in terms of parameterization and of required input data, to characterize the average runoff regime of high-elevation and scarcely monitored basins. The model uses a temperature threshold to partition precipitation into rainfall and snowfall, and to estimate evapotranspiration volumes. The role of snow in the transformation of precipitation into runoff is investigated at the monthly time scale through a specific snowmelt module that estimates melted quantities by a non-linear function of temperature. A probabilistic representation of temperature is also introduced, in order to mimic its sub-monthly variability. To account for the commonly reported rainfall underestimation at high elevations, a two-step precipitation adjustment procedure is implemented to guarantee the closure of the water balance. The model is applied to a group of catchments in the North-Western Italian Alps, and its performances are assessed by comparing measured and simulated runoff regimes both in terms of total bias and anomalies, by means of a new metric, specifically conceived to compare the shape of the two curves. The obtained results indicates that the model is able to predict the observed runoff seasonality satisfactorily, notwithstanding its parsimony (the model has only two parameters to be estimated). In particular, when the parameter calibration is performed separately for each basin, the model proves to be able to reproduce the runoff seasonality. At the regional scale (i.e., with uniform parameters for the whole region), the performance is less positive, but the model is still able to discern among different mechanisms of runoff formation that depend on the role of the snow storage. Because of its parsimony and the robustness in the approach, the model is suitable for application in ungauged basins and for large scale investigations of the role of climatic variables on water availability and runoff timing in mountainous regions.

Description: The International Soil Moisture Network: a data hosting facility for global in situ soil moisture measurements Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1675-1698, 2011 Author(s): W. A. Dorigo, W. Wagner, R. Hohensinn, S. Hahn, C. Paulik, A. Xaver, A. Gruber, M. Drusch, S. Mecklenburg, P. van Oevelen, A. Robock, and T. Jackson In situ measurements of soil moisture are invaluable for calibrating and validating land surface models and satellite-based soil moisture retrievals. In addition, long-term time series of in situ soil moisture measurements themselves can reveal trends in the water cycle related to climate or land cover change. Nevertheless, on a worldwide basis the number of meteorological networks and stations measuring soil moisture, in particular on a continuous basis, is still limited and the data they provide lack standardization of technique and protocol. To overcome many of these limitations, the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN; http://www.ipf.tuwien.ac.at/insitu ) was initiated to serve as a centralized data hosting facility where globally available in situ soil moisture measurements from operational networks and validation campaigns are collected, harmonized, and made available to users. Data collecting networks share their soil moisture datasets with the ISMN on a voluntary and no-cost basis. Incoming soil moisture data are automatically transformed into common volumetric soil moisture units and checked for outliers and implausible values. Apart from soil water measurements from different depths, important metadata and meteorological variables (e.g., precipitation and soil temperature) are stored in the database. These will assist the user in correctly interpreting the soil moisture data. The database is queried through a graphical user interface while output of data selected for download is provided according to common standards for data and metadata. Currently (status May 2011), the ISMN contains data of 19 networks and more than 500 stations located in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia. The time period spanned by the entire database runs from 1952 until the present, although most datasets have originated during the last decade. The database is rapidly expanding, which means that both the number of stations and the time period covered by the existing stations are still growing. Hence, it will become an increasingly important resource for validating and improving satellite-derived soil moisture products and studying climate related trends. As the ISMN is animated by the scientific community itself, we invite potential networks to enrich the collection by sharing their in situ soil moisture data.

Description: Hydrological differentiation and spatial distribution of high altitude wetlands in a semi-arid Andean region derived from satellite data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1713-1727, 2011 Author(s): M. Otto, D. Scherer, and J. Richters High Altitude Wetlands of the Andes (HAWA) belong to a unique type of wetland within the semi-arid high Andean region. Knowledge about HAWA has been derived mainly from studies at single sites within different parts of the Andes at only small time scales. On the one hand, HAWA depend on water provided by glacier streams, snow melt or precipitation. On the other hand, they are suspected to influence hydrology through water retention and vegetation growth altering stream flow velocity. We derived HAWA land cover from satellite data at regional scale and analysed changes in connection with precipitation over the last decade. Perennial and temporal HAWA subtypes can be distinguished by seasonal changes of photosynthetically active vegetation (PAV) indicating the perennial or temporal availability of water during the year. HAWA have been delineated within a region of 12 800 km 2 situated in the Northwest of Lake Titicaca. The multi-temporal classification method used Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Differenced Infrared Index (NDII) data derived from two Landsat ETM+ scenes at the end of austral winter (September 2000) and at the end of austral summer (May 2001). The mapping result indicates an unexpected high abundance of HAWA covering about 800 km 2 of the study region (6 %). Annual HAWA mapping was computed using NDVI 16-day composites of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Analyses on the relation between HAWA and precipitation was based on monthly precipitation data of the Tropical Rain Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B43) and MODIS Eight Day Maximum Snow Extent data (MOD10A2) from 2000 to 2010. We found HAWA subtype specific dependencies on precipitation conditions. A strong relation exists between perennial HAWA and snow fall ( r 2 : 0.82) in dry austral winter months (June to August) and between temporal HAWA and precipitation ( r 2 : 0.75) during austral summer (March to May). Annual changes in spatial extend of perennial HAWA indicate alterations in annual water supply generated from snow melt.

Description: Forest cover influence on regional flood frequency assessment in Mediterranean catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 3077-3090, 2011 Author(s): F. Preti, G. Forzieri, and G. B. Chirico The paper aims at evaluating to what extent the forest cover can explain the component of runoff coefficient as defined in a regional flood frequency analysis based on the application of the rational formula coupled with a regional model of the annual maximum rainfall depths. The analysis is addressed to evaluate the component of the runoff coefficient which cannot be captured by the catchment lithology alone. Data mining is performed on 75 catchments distributed from South to Central Italy. Cluster and correlation structure analyses are conducted for distinguishing forest cover effects within catchments characterized by hydro-morphological similarities. We propose to improve the prediction of the runoff coefficient by a linear regression model, exploiting the ratio of the forest cover to the catchment critical rainfall depth as dependent variable. The proposed regression enables a significant bias correction of the runoff coefficient, particularly for those small mountainous catchments, characterised by larger forest cover fraction and lower critical rainfall depth.

Description: Technical Note: Assessing a 24/7 solution for monitoring water quality loads in small river catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 3093-3100, 2011 Author(s): P. Jordan and R. Cassidy Quantifying nutrient and sediment loads in catchments is difficult owing to diffuse controls related to storm hydrology. Coarse sampling and interpolation methods are prone to very high uncertainties due to under-representation of high discharge, short duration events. Additionally, important low-flow processes such as diurnal signals linked to point source impacts are missed. Here we demonstrate a solution based on a time-integrated approach to sampling with a standard 24 bottle autosampler configured to take a sample every 7 h over a week according to a Plynlimon design. This is evaluated with a number of other sampling strategies using a two-year dataset of sub-hourly discharge and phosphorus concentration data. The 24/7 solution is shown to be among the least uncertain in estimating load (inter-quartile range: 96% to 110% of actual load in year 1 and 97% to 104% in year 2) due to the increased frequency raising the probability of sampling storm events and point source signals. The 24/7 solution would appear to be most parsimonious in terms of data coverage and certainty, process signal representation, potential laboratory commitment, technology requirements and the ability to be widely deployed in complex catchments.

Description: Inverse modelling of in situ soil water dynamics: investigating the effect of different prior distributions of the soil hydraulic parameters Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 3043-3059, 2011 Author(s): B. Scharnagl, J. A. Vrugt, H. Vereecken, and M. Herbst In situ observations of soil water state variables under natural boundary conditions are often used to estimate the soil hydraulic properties. However, many contributions to the soil hydrological literature have demonstrated that the information content of such data is insufficient to accurately and precisely estimate all the soil hydraulic parameters. In this case study, we explored to which degree prior information about the soil hydraulic parameters can help improve parameter identifiability in inverse modelling of in situ soil water dynamics under natural boundary conditions. We used percentages of sand, silt, and clay as input variables to the ROSETTA pedotransfer function that predicts the parameters in the van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) model of the soil hydraulic functions. To derive additional information about the correlation structure of the predicted parameters, which is not readily provided by ROSETTA, we employed a Monte Carlo approach. We formulated three prior distributions that incorporate to different extents the prior information about the VGM parameters derived with ROSETTA. The inverse problem was posed in a formal Bayesian framework and solved using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. Synthetic and real-world soil water content data were used to illustrate the approach. The results of this study demonstrated that prior information about the soil hydraulic parameters significantly improved parameter identifiability and that this approach was effective and robust, even in case of biased prior information. To be effective and robust, however, it was essential to use a prior distribution that incorporates information about parameter correlation.

Description: Corrigendum to "A distributed stream temperature model using high resolution temperature observations" published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1469–1480, 2007 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 3091-3091, 2011 Author(s): M. C. Westhoff, H. H. G. Savenije, W. M. J . Luxemburg, G. S. Stelling, N. C. van de Giesen, J. S. Selker, L. Pfister, and S. Uhlenbrook No abstract available.

Description: Integrating coarse-scale uncertain soil moisture data into a fine-scale hydrological modelling scenario Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 3101-3114, 2011 Author(s): H. Vernieuwe, B. De Baets, J. Minet, V. R. N. Pauwels, S. Lambot, M. Vanclooster, and N. E. C. Verhoest In a hydrological modelling scenario, often the modeller is confronted with external data, such as remotely-sensed soil moisture observations, that become available to update the model output. However, the scale triplet (spacing, extent and support) of these data is often inconsistent with that of the model. Furthermore, the external data can be cursed with epistemic uncertainty. Hence, a method is needed that not only integrates the external data into the model, but that also takes into account the difference in scale and the uncertainty of the observations. In this paper, a synthetic hydrological modelling scenario is set up in which a high-resolution distributed hydrological model is run over an agricultural field. At regular time steps, coarse-scale field-averaged soil moisture data, described by means of possibility distributions (epistemic uncertainty), are retrieved by synthetic aperture radar and assimilated into the model. A method is presented that allows to integrate the coarse-scale possibility distribution of soil moisture content data with the fine-scale model-based soil moisture data. The method is subdivided in two steps. The first step, the disaggregation step, employs a scaling relationship between field-averaged soil moisture content data and its corresponding standard deviation. In the second step, the soil moisture content values are updated using two alternative methods.

Description: Spatial variation of the longitudinal dispersion coefficient in an estuary Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 3679-3688, 2011 Author(s): D. C. Shaha, Y.-K. Cho, M.-T. Kwak, S. R. Kundu, and K. T. Jung The effective longitudinal dispersion is a primary tool for determining property distributions in estuaries. Most previous studies have examined the longitudinal dispersion coefficient for the average tidal condition. However, information on spatial and temporal variations of this coefficient at low and high tides is scarce. Three years of hydrographic data taken at low and high tide along the main axis of the Sumjin River Estuary (SRE), Korea are used to estimate the spatial and temporal variation of the effective longitudinal dispersion coefficient. The range of the dispersion coefficient is rather broad at high water slack (HWS) and narrower at low water slack (LWS) because of the different tidal amplitudes. The spatially varying dispersion coefficient has maximal values (〉300 m 2 s −1 ) near the mouth at high water and decreases gradually upstream, with fluctuations. The temporally varying dispersion coefficient appears to be positively correlated with river discharges at both low and high tide. The dispersion varies with the square root of river discharges at HWS and LWS. The dispersive salt fluxes increases with increasing river discharges and decreases with decreasing river discharges at HWS and LWS. Estimation of the numerical values of the effective longitudinal dispersion coefficient in the SRE can be useful for better understanding of the distributions of other tracers in the SRE as well as for developing and testing hypotheses about various mixing mechanisms.

Description: Shallow rainwater lenses in deltaic areas with saline seepage Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 3659-3678, 2011 Author(s): P. G. B. de Louw, S. Eeman, B. Siemon, B. R. Voortman, J. Gunnink, E. S. van Baaren, and G. H. P. Oude Essink In deltaic areas with saline seepage, freshwater availability is often limited to shallow rainwater lenses lying on top of saline groundwater. Here we describe the characteristics and spatial variability of such lenses in areas with saline seepage and the mechanisms that control their occurrence and size. Our findings are based on different types of field measurements and detailed numerical groundwater models applied in the south-western delta of the Netherlands. By combining the applied techniques we could extrapolate measurements at point scale (groundwater sampling, temperature and electrical soil conductivity (TEC)-probe measurements, electrical cone penetration tests (ECPT)) to field scale (continuous vertical electrical soundings (CVES), electromagnetic survey with EM31), and even to regional scale using helicopter-borne electromagnetic measurements (HEM). The measurements show a gradual mixing zone between infiltrating fresh rainwater and upward flowing saline groundwater. The mixing zone is best characterized by the depth of the centre of the mixing zone D mix , where the salinity is half that of seepage water, and the bottom of the mixing zone B mix , with a salinity equal to that of the seepage water (Cl-conc. 10 to 16 g l −1 ). D mix is found at very shallow depth in the confining top layer, on average at 1.7 m below ground level (b.g.l.), while B mix lies about 2.5 m b.g.l. The model results show that the constantly alternating upward and downward flow at low velocities in the confining layer is the main mechanism of mixing between rainwater and saline seepage and determines the position and extent of the mixing zone ( D mix and B mix ). Recharge, seepage flux, and drainage depth are the controlling factors.

Description: A structure generator for modelling the initial sediment distribution of an artificial hydrologic catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 3617-3638, 2011 Author(s): T. Maurer, A. Schneider, and H. H. Gerke Artificially-created hydrological catchments are characterised by sediment structures from technological construction processes that can potentially be important for modelling of flow and transport and for understanding initial soil and ecosystem development. The subsurface spatial structures of such catchments have not yet been sufficiently explored and described. Our objective was to develop a structure generator programme for modelling the 3-D spatial distribution patterns of dumped sediments depending on the technical earth-moving and deposition processes. We are focussing in a first step on integrating sediment dumping, particle size, and bulk density modification processes on the catchment scale. For the model development, the artificially-constructed hydrological catchment "Chicken Creek" located in Lower Lusatia, Germany, served as an example. The structure generator describes 3-D technological sediment distributions at two scales: (i) for a 2-D-vertical cross-section, texture and bulk density distributions are generated within individual spoil cones that result from mass dumping, particle segregation, and compaction and (ii) for the whole catchment, the spoil cones are horizontally arranged along trajectories of mass dumping controlled by the belt stacker-machine relative to the catchment's clay layer topography. The generated 3-D texture and bulk density distributions are interpolated and visualised as a gridded 3-D-volume body using 3-D computer-aided design software. The generated subsurface sediment distribution for the Chicken Creek catchment was found to correspond to observed patterns already without calibration. Spatial aggregation and interpolation in the gridded volume body modified the generated distributions towards more uniform (unimodal) distributions and lower values of the standard deviations. The modelling approach is generally applicable to all situations where large masses of unconsolidated sediment are moved and dumped thereby allowing generation of basic soil structures and patterns of hydrological systems.

Description: Analysis of predicted and observed accumulated convective precipitation in the area with frequent split storms Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 3651-3658, 2011 Author(s): M. Ćurić and D. Janc Convective clouds generate extreme rainfall events and flash floods in small areas with both large spatial and temporal variability. For this reason, the monitoring of the total accumulated precipitation fields at the surface with rain gauges and meteorological radars has both strengths and weakness. Alternatively, a numerical cloud model may be a useful tool to simulate convective precipitation for various analyses and predictions. The main objective of this paper is to show that the cloud-resolving model reproduces well the accumulated convective precipitation obtained from the rain gauge network data in the area with frequent split storms. We perform comparisons between observations and model samples of the areal accumulated convective precipitation for a 15-year period over treated area. Twenty-seven convective events have been selected. Statistical analyses reveal that the model areal accumulated convective precipitation closely match their observed values with a correlation coefficient of 0.80.

Description: Characterization of deep aquifer dynamics using principal component analysis of sequential multilevel data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 761-771, 2012 Author(s): D. Kurtzman, L. Netzer, N. Weisbrod, A. Nasser, E. R. Graber, and D. Ronen Two sequential multilevel profiles were obtained in an observation well opened to a 130-m thick, unconfined, contaminated aquifer in Tel Aviv, Israel. While the general profile characteristics of major ions, trace elements, and volatile organic compounds were maintained in the two sampling campaigns conducted 295 days apart, the vertical locations of high concentration gradients were shifted between the two profiles. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the chemical variables resulted in a first principal component which was responsible for ∼60% of the variability, and was highly correlated with depth. PCA revealed three distinct depth-dependent water bodies in both multilevel profiles, which were found to have shifted vertically between the sampling events. This shift cut across a clayey bed which separated the top and intermediate water bodies in the first profile, and was located entirely within the intermediate water body in the second profile. Continuous electrical conductivity monitoring in a packed-off section of the observation well revealed an event in which a distinct water body flowed through the monitored section ( v ∼ 150 m yr −1 ). It was concluded that the observed changes in the profiles result from dominantly lateral flow of water bodies in the aquifer rather than vertical flow. The significance of this study is twofold: (a) it demonstrates the utility of sequential multilevel observations from deep wells and the efficacy of PCA for evaluating the data; (b) the fact that distinct water bodies of 10 to 100 m vertical and horizontal dimensions flow under contaminated sites, which has implications for monitoring and remediation.

Description: Editorial “Advances in Earth observation for water cycle science” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 543-549, 2012 Author(s): D. Fernández-Prieto, P. van Oevelen, Z. Su, and W. Wagner

Description: Prioritization of water management under climate change and urbanization using multi-criteria decision making methods Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 801-814, 2012 Author(s): J.-S. Yang, E.-S. Chung, S.-U. Kim, and T.-W. Kim This paper quantifies the transformed effectiveness of alternatives for watershed management caused by climate change and urbanization and prioritizes five options using multi-criteria decision making techniques. The climate change scenarios (A1B and A2) were obtained by using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM), and the urbanization scenario by surveying the existing urban planning. The flow and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) concentration duration curves were derived, and the numbers of days required to satisfy the environmental flow requirement and the target BOD concentration were counted using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model. In addition, five feasible alternatives were prioritized by using multi-criteria decision making techniques, based on the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework and cost component. Finally, a sensitivity analysis approach for MCDM methods was conducted to reduce the uncertainty of weights. The result indicates that the most sensitive decision criterion is cost, followed by criteria response, driving force, impact, state and pressure in that order. As it is certain that the importance of cost component is over 0.127, construction of a small wastewater treatment plant will be the most preferred alternative in this application.

Description: An integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation approach for improved operational streamflow predictions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 815-831, 2012 Author(s): M. He, T. S. Hogue, S. A. Margulis, and K. J. Franz The current study proposes an integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation framework (ICEA) and evaluates its viability in providing operational streamflow predictions via assimilating snow water equivalent (SWE) data. This step-wise framework applies a parameter uncertainty analysis algorithm (ISURF) to identify the uncertainty structure of sensitive model parameters, which is subsequently formulated into an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to generate updated snow states for streamflow prediction. The framework is coupled to the US National Weather Service (NWS) snow and rainfall-runoff models. Its applicability is demonstrated for an operational basin of a western River Forecast Center (RFC) of the NWS. Performance of the framework is evaluated against existing operational baseline (RFC predictions), the stand-alone ISURF and the stand-alone EnKF. Results indicate that the ensemble-mean prediction of ICEA considerably outperforms predictions from the other three scenarios investigated, particularly in the context of predicting high flows (top 5th percentile). The ICEA streamflow ensemble predictions capture the variability of the observed streamflow well, however the ensemble is not wide enough to consistently contain the range of streamflow observations in the study basin. Our findings indicate that the ICEA has the potential to supplement the current operational (deterministic) forecasting method in terms of providing improved single-valued (e.g., ensemble mean) streamflow predictions as well as meaningful ensemble predictions.

Description: Accounting for seasonality in a soil moisture change detection algorithm for ASAR Wide Swath time series Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 773-786, 2012 Author(s): J. Van doninck, J. Peters, H. Lievens, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest A change detection algorithm is applied on a three year time series of ASAR Wide Swath images in VV polarization over Calabria, Italy, in order to derive information on temporal soil moisture dynamics. The algorithm, adapted from an algorithm originally developed for ERS scatterometer, was validated using a simple hydrological model incorporating meteorological and pedological data. Strong positive correlations between modelled soil moisture and ASAR soil moisture were observed over arable land, while the correlation became much weaker over more vegetated areas. In a second phase, an attempt was made to incorporate seasonality in the different model parameters. It was observed that seasonally changing surface properties mainly affected the multitemporal incidence angle normalization. When applying a seasonal angular normalization, correlation coefficients between modelled soil moisture and retrieved soil moisture increased overall. Attempts to account for seasonality in the other model parameters did not result in an improved performance.