ALBERT

Description: Qualitative soil moisture assessment in semi-arid Africa – the role of experience and training on inter-rater reliability Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3505-3516, 2015 Author(s): M. Rinderer, H. C. Komakech, D. Müller, G. L. B. Wiesenberg, and J. Seibert Soil and water management is particularly relevant in semi-arid regions to enhance agricultural productivity. During periods of water scarcity, soil moisture differences are important indicators of the soil water deficit and are traditionally used for allocating water resources among farmers of a village community. Here we present a simple, inexpensive soil wetness classification scheme based on qualitative indicators which one can see or touch on the soil surface. It incorporates the local farmers' knowledge on the best soil moisture conditions for seeding and brick making in the semi-arid environment of the study site near Arusha, Tanzania. The scheme was tested twice in 2014 with farmers, students and experts (April: 40 persons, June: 25 persons) for inter-rater reliability, bias of individuals and functional relation between qualitative and quantitative soil moisture values. During the test in April farmers assigned the same wetness class in 46 % of all cases, while students and experts agreed on about 60 % of all cases. Students who had been trained in how to apply the method gained higher inter-rater reliability than their colleagues with only a basic introduction. When repeating the test in June, participants were given improved instructions, organized in small subgroups, which resulted in a higher inter-rater reliability among farmers. In 66 % of all classifications, farmers assigned the same wetness class and the spread of class assignments was smaller. This study demonstrates that a wetness classification scheme based on qualitative indicators is a robust tool and can be applied successfully regardless of experience in crop growing and education level when an in-depth introduction and training is provided. The use of a simple and clear layout of the assessment form is important for reliable wetness class assignments.

Description: Impacts of beaver dams on hydrologic and temperature regimes in a mountain stream Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3541-3556, 2015 Author(s): M. Majerova, B. T. Neilson, N. M. Schmadel, J. M. Wheaton, and C. J. Snow Beaver dams affect hydrologic processes, channel complexity, and stream temperature in part by inundating riparian areas, influencing groundwater–surface water interactions, and changing fluvial processes within stream systems. We explored the impacts of beaver dams on hydrologic and temperature regimes at different spatial and temporal scales within a mountain stream in northern Utah over a 3-year period spanning pre- and post-beaver colonization. Using continuous stream discharge, stream temperature, synoptic tracer experiments, and groundwater elevation measurements, we documented pre-beaver conditions in the first year of the study. In the second year, we captured the initial effects of three beaver dams, while the third year included the effects of ten dams. After beaver colonization, reach-scale (~ 750 m in length) discharge observations showed a shift from slightly losing to gaining. However, at the smaller sub-reach scale (ranging from 56 to 185 m in length), the discharge gains and losses increased in variability due to more complex flow pathways with beaver dams forcing overland flow, increasing surface and subsurface storage, and increasing groundwater elevations. At the reach scale, temperatures were found to increase by 0.38 °C (3.8 %), which in part is explained by a 230 % increase in mean reach residence time. At the smallest, beaver dam scale (including upstream ponded area, beaver dam structure, and immediate downstream section), there were notable increases in the thermal heterogeneity where warmer and cooler niches were created. Through the quantification of hydrologic and thermal changes at different spatial and temporal scales, we document increased variability during post-beaver colonization and highlight the need to understand the impacts of beaver dams on stream ecosystems and their potential role in stream restoration.

Description: Relating seasonal dynamics of enhanced vegetation index to the recycling of water in two endorheic river basins in north-west China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3387-3403, 2015 Author(s): M. A. Matin and C. P.-A. Bourque This study associates the dynamics of enhanced vegetation index in lowland desert oases to the recycling of water in two endorheic (hydrologically closed) river basins in Gansu Province, north-west China, along a gradient of elevation zones and land cover types. Each river basin was subdivided into four elevation zones representative of (i) oasis plains and foothills, and (ii) low-, (iii) mid-, and (iv) high-mountain elevations. Comparison of monthly vegetation phenology with precipitation and snowmelt dynamics within the same basins over a 10-year period (2000–2009) suggested that the onset of the precipitation season (cumulative % precipitation 〉 7–8 %) in the mountains, typically in late April to early May, was triggered by the greening of vegetation and increased production of water vapour at the base of the mountains. Seasonal evolution of in-mountain precipitation correlated fairly well with the temporal variation in oasis-vegetation coverage and phenology characterised by monthly enhanced vegetation index, yielding coefficients of determination of 0.65 and 0.85 for the two basins. Convergent cross-mapping of related time series indicated bi-directional causality (feedback) between the two variables. Comparisons between same-zone monthly precipitation amounts and enhanced vegetation index provided weaker correlations. Start of the growing season in the oases was shown to coincide with favourable spring warming and discharge of meltwater from low- to mid-elevations of the Qilian Mountains (zones 1 and 2) in mid-to-late March. In terms of plant requirement for water, mid-seasonal development of oasis vegetation was seen to be controlled to a greater extent by the production of rain in the mountains. Comparison of water volumes associated with in-basin production of rainfall and snowmelt with that associated with evaporation seemed to suggest that about 90 % of the available liquid water (i.e. mostly in the form of direct rainfall and snowmelt in the mountains) was recycled locally.

Description: Investigating suspended sediment dynamics in contrasting agricultural catchments using ex situ turbidity-based suspended sediment monitoring Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3349-3363, 2015 Author(s): S. C. Sherriff, J. S. Rowan, A. R. Melland, P. Jordan, O. Fenton, and D. Ó hUallacháin Soil erosion and suspended sediment (SS) pose risks to chemical and ecological water quality. Agricultural activities may accelerate erosional fluxes from bare, poached or compacted soils, and enhance connectivity through modified channels and artificial drainage networks. Storm-event fluxes dominate SS transport in agricultural catchments; therefore, high temporal-resolution monitoring approaches are required, but can be expensive and technically challenging. Here, the performance of in situ turbidity sensors, conventionally installed submerged at the river bankside, is compared with installations where river water is delivered to sensors ex situ, i.e. within instrument kiosks on the riverbank, at two experimental catchments (Grassland B and Arable B). The in situ and ex situ installations gave comparable results when calibrated against storm-period, depth-integrated SS data, with total loads at Grassland B estimated at 12 800 and 15 400 t, and 22 600 and 24 900 t at Arable B, respectively. The absence of spurious turbidity readings relating to bankside debris around the in situ sensor and its greater security make the ex situ sensor more robust. The ex situ approach was then used to characterise SS dynamics and fluxes in five intensively managed agricultural catchments in Ireland which feature a range of landscape characteristics and land use pressures. Average annual suspended sediment concentration (SSC) was below the Freshwater Fish Directive (78/659/EEC) guideline of 25 mg L −1 , and the continuous hourly record demonstrated that exceedance occurred less than 12 % of the observation year. Soil drainage class and proportion of arable land were key controls determining flux rates, but all catchments reported a high degree of inter-annual variability associated with variable precipitation patterns compared to the long-term average. Poorly drained soils had greater sensitivity to runoff and soil erosion, particularly in catchments with periods of bare soils. Well drained soils were less sensitive to erosion even on arable land; however, under extreme rainfall conditions, all bare soils remain a high sediment loss risk. Analysis of storm-period and seasonal dynamics (over the long term) using high-resolution monitoring would be beneficial to further explore the impact of landscape, climate and land use characteristics on SS export.

Description: Landscape heterogeneity drives contrasting concentration–discharge relationships in shale headwater catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3333-3347, 2015 Author(s): E. M. Herndon, A. L. Dere, P. L. Sullivan, D. Norris, B. Reynolds, and S. L. Brantley Solute concentrations in stream water vary with discharge in patterns that record complex feedbacks between hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. In a comparison of three shale-underlain headwater catchments located in Pennsylvania, USA (the forested Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory), and Wales, UK (the peatland-dominated Upper Hafren and forest-dominated Upper Hore catchments in the Plynlimon forest), dissimilar concentration–discharge ( C – Q ) behaviors are best explained by contrasting landscape distributions of soil solution chemistry – especially dissolved organic carbon (DOC) – that have been established by patterns of vegetation and soil organic matter (SOM). Specifically, elements that are concentrated in organic-rich soils due to biotic cycling (Mn, Ca, K) or that form strong complexes with DOC (Fe, Al) are spatially heterogeneous in pore waters because organic matter is heterogeneously distributed across the catchments. These solutes exhibit non-chemostatic behavior in the streams, and solute concentrations either decrease (Shale Hills) or increase (Plynlimon) with increasing discharge. In contrast, solutes that are concentrated in soil minerals and form only weak complexes with DOC (Na, Mg, Si) are spatially homogeneous in pore waters across each catchment. These solutes are chemostatic in that their stream concentrations vary little with stream discharge, likely because these solutes are released quickly from exchange sites in the soils during rainfall events. Furthermore, concentration–discharge relationships of non-chemostatic solutes changed following tree harvest in the Upper Hore catchment in Plynlimon, while no changes were observed for chemostatic solutes, underscoring the role of vegetation in regulating the concentrations of certain elements in the stream. These results indicate that differences in the hydrologic connectivity of organic-rich soils to the stream drive differences in concentration behavior between catchments. As such, in catchments where SOM is dominantly in lowlands (e.g., Shale Hills), we infer that non-chemostatic elements associated with organic matter are released to the stream early during rainfall events, whereas in catchments where SOM is dominantly in uplands (e.g., Plynlimon), these non-chemostatic elements are released later during rainfall events. The distribution of SOM across the landscape is thus a key component for predictive models of solute transport in headwater catchments.

Description: A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3365-3385, 2015 Author(s): V. Thiemig, B. Bisselink, F. Pappenberger, and J. Thielen The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Ranged Weather Forecasts) and critical hydrological thresholds. In this paper, the predictive capability is investigated in a hindcast mode, by reproducing hydrological predictions for the year 2003 when important floods were observed. Results were verified by ground measurements of 36 sub-catchments as well as by reports of various flood archives. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70 % of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (〉 1 week) and large affected areas (〉 10 000 km 2 ) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. The case study for the flood event in March 2003 in the Sabi Basin (Zimbabwe) illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a large potential as an operational pan-African flood forecasting system, although issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.

Description: A comprehensive filtering scheme for high-resolution estimation of the water balance components from high-precision lysimeters Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3405-3418, 2015 Author(s): M. Hannes, U. Wollschläger, F. Schrader, W. Durner, S. Gebler, T. Pütz, J. Fank, G. von Unold, and H.-J. Vogel Large weighing lysimeters are currently the most precise method to directly measure all components of the terrestrial water balance in parallel via the built-in weighing system. As lysimeters are exposed to several external forces such as management practices or wind influencing the weighing data, the calculated fluxes of precipitation and evapotranspiration can be altered considerably without having applied appropriate corrections to the raw data. Therefore, adequate filtering schemes for obtaining most accurate estimates of the water balance components are required. In this study, we use data from the TERENO (TERrestrial ENvironmental Observatories) SoilCan research site in Bad Lauchstädt to develop a comprehensive filtering procedure for high-precision lysimeter data, which is designed to deal with various kinds of possible errors starting from the elimination of large disturbances in the raw data resulting e.g., from management practices all the way to the reduction of noise caused e.g., by moderate wind. Furthermore, we analyze the influence of averaging times and thresholds required by some of the filtering steps on the calculated water balance and investigate the ability of two adaptive filtering methods (the adaptive window and adaptive threshold filter (AWAT filter; Peters et al., 2014), and a new synchro filter applicable to the data from a set of several lysimeters) to further reduce the filtering error. Finally, we take advantage of the data sets of all 18 lysimeters running in parallel at the Bad Lauchstädt site to evaluate the performance and accuracy of the proposed filtering scheme. For the tested time interval of 2 months, we show that the estimation of the water balance with high temporal resolution and good accuracy is possible. The filtering code can be downloaded from the journal website as Supplement to this publication.

Description: The Global Network of Isotopes in Rivers (GNIR): integration of water isotopes in watershed observation and riverine research Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3419-3431, 2015 Author(s): J. Halder, S. Terzer, L. I. Wassenaar, L. J. Araguás-Araguás, and P. K. Aggarwal We introduce a new online global database of riverine water stable isotopes (Global Network of Isotopes in Rivers, GNIR) and evaluate its longer-term data holdings. Overall, 218 GNIR river stations were clustered into three different groups based on the seasonal variation in their isotopic composition, which was closely coupled to precipitation and snowmelt water runoff regimes. Sinusoidal fit functions revealed phases within each grouping and deviations from the sinusoidal functions revealed important river alterations or hydrological processes in these watersheds. The seasonal isotopic amplitude of δ 18 O in rivers averaged 2.5 ‰, and did not increase as a function of latitude, like it does for global precipitation. Low seasonal isotopic amplitudes in rivers suggest the prevalence of mixing and storage such as occurs via lakes, reservoirs, and groundwater. The application of a catchment-constrained regionalized cluster-based water isotope prediction model (CC-RCWIP) allowed for direct comparison between the expected isotopic compositions for the upstream catchment precipitation with the measured isotopic composition of river discharge at observation stations. The catchment-constrained model revealed a strong global isotopic correlation between average rainfall and river discharge ( R 2 = 0.88) and the study demonstrated that the seasonal isotopic composition and variation of river water can be predicted. Deviations in data from model-predicted values suggest there are important natural or anthropogenic catchment processes like evaporation, damming, and water storage in the upstream catchment.

Description: Diagnosing the seasonal land–atmosphere correspondence over northern Australia: dependence on soil moisture state and correspondence strength definition Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3433-3447, 2015 Author(s): M. Decker, A. Pitman, and J. Evans The similarity of the temporal variations of land and atmospheric states during the onset (September) through to the peak (February) of the wet season over northern Australia is statistically diagnosed using ensembles of offline land surface model simulations that produce a range of different background soil moisture states. We derive the temporal correspondence between variations in the soil moisture and the planetary boundary layer via a statistical measure of rank correlation. The simulated evaporative fraction and the boundary layer are shown to be strongly correlated during both SON (September–October–November) and DJF (December–January–February) despite the differing background soil moisture states between the two seasons and among the ensemble members. The sign and magnitude of the boundary layer–surface layer soil moisture association during the onset of the wet season (SON) differs from the correlation between the evaporative fraction and boundary layer from the same season, and from the correlation between the surface soil moisture and boundary layer association during DJF. The patterns and magnitude of the surface flux–boundary layer correspondence are not captured when the relationship is diagnosed using the surface layer soil moisture alone. The conflicting results arise because the surface layer soil moisture lacks strong correlation with the atmosphere during the monsoon onset because the evapotranspiration is dominated by transpiration. Our results indicate that accurately diagnosing the correspondence and therefore coupling strength in seasonally dry regions, such as northern Australia, requires root zone soil moisture to be included.

Description: Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2577-2586, 2015 Author(s): F. Wetterhall, H. C. Winsemius, E. Dutra, M. Werner, and E. Pappenberger The rainfall in southern Africa has a large inter-annual variability, which can cause rain-fed agriculture to fail. The staple crop maize is especially sensitive to dry spells during the early growing season. An early prediction of the probability of dry spells and below normal precipitation can potentially mitigate damages through water management. This paper investigates how well ECMWF's seasonal forecasts predict dry spells over the Limpopo basin during the rainy season December–February (DJF) with lead times from 0 to 4 months. The seasonal forecasts were evaluated against ERA-Interim reanalysis data, which in turn were corrected with GPCP (EGPCP) to match monthly precipitation totals. The seasonal forecasts were also bias-corrected with the EGPCP using quantile mapping as well as post-processed using a precipitation threshold to define a dry day. The results indicate that the forecasts show skill in predicting dry spells in comparison with a climatological ensemble based on previous years. Quantile mapping in combination with a precipitation threshold improved the skill of the forecast. The skill in prediction of dry spells was largest over the most drought-sensitive region. Seasonal forecasts have the potential to be used in a probabilistic forecast system for drought-sensitive crops, though these should be used with caution given the large uncertainties.

Description: Surface seiches in Flathead Lake Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2605-2615, 2015 Author(s): G. Kirillin, M. S. Lorang, T. C. Lippmann, C. C. Gotschalk, and S. Schimmelpfennig Standing surface waves or seiches are inherent hydrodynamic features of enclosed water bodies. Their two-dimensional structure is important for estimating flood risk, coastal erosion, and bottom sediment transport, and for understanding shoreline habitats and lake ecology in general. In this work, we present analysis of two-dimensional seiche characteristics in Flathead Lake, Montana, USA, a large intermountain lake known to have high seiche amplitudes. To examine spatial characteristics of different seiche modes, we used the original procedure of determining the seiche frequencies from the primitive equation model output with subsequent derivation of the spatial seiche structure at fixed frequencies akin to the tidal harmonic analysis. The proposed procedure revealed specific seiche oscillation features in Flathead Lake, including maximum surface level amplitudes of the first fundamental mode in straights around the largest island; several higher modes appearing locally in the vicinity of the river inflow; the "Helmholtz" open harbor mode, with the period approximately twice that of the longest seiche mode, generated by a large shallow bay connected to the main lake basin; and several rotating seiche modes potentially affecting the lake-wide circulation. We discuss lake management problems related to the spatial seiche distribution, such as shoreline erosion, floods, and transport of sediments and invasive species in Flathead Lake.

Description: Estimating flow and transport parameters in the unsaturated zone with pore water stable isotopes Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2617-2635, 2015 Author(s): M. Sprenger, T. H. M. Volkmann, T. Blume, and M. Weiler Determining the soil hydraulic properties is a prerequisite to physically model transient water flow and solute transport in the vadose zone. Estimating these properties by inverse modelling techniques has become more common within the last 2 decades. While these inverse approaches usually fit simulations to hydrometric data, we expanded the methodology by using independent information about the stable isotope composition of the soil pore water depth profile as a single or additional optimization target. To demonstrate the potential and limits of this approach, we compared the results of three inverse modelling strategies where the fitting targets were (a) pore water isotope concentrations, (b) a combination of pore water isotope concentrations and soil moisture time series, and (c) a two-step approach using first soil moisture data to determine water flow parameters and then the pore water stable isotope concentrations to estimate the solute transport parameters. The analyses were conducted at three study sites with different soil properties and vegetation. The transient unsaturated water flow was simulated by solving the Richards equation numerically with the finite-element code of HYDRUS-1D. The transport of deuterium was simulated with the advection-dispersion equation, and a modified version of HYDRUS was used, allowing deuterium loss during evaporation. The Mualem–van Genuchten and the longitudinal dispersivity parameters were determined for two major soil horizons at each site. The results show that approach (a), using only the pore water isotope content, cannot substitute hydrometric information to derive parameter sets that reflect the observed soil moisture dynamics but gives comparable results when the parameter space is constrained by pedotransfer functions. Approaches (b) and (c), using both the isotope profiles and the soil moisture time series, resulted in good simulation results with regard to the Kling–Gupta efficiency and good parameter identifiability. However, approach (b) has the advantage that it considers the isotope data not only for the solute transport parameters but also for water flow and root water uptake, and thus increases parameter realism. Approaches (b) and (c) both outcompeted simulations run with parameters derived from pedotransfer functions, which did not result in an acceptable representation of the soil moisture dynamics and pore water stable isotope composition. Overall, parameters based on this new approach that includes isotope data lead to similar model performances regarding the water balance and soil moisture dynamics and better parameter identifiability than the conventional inverse model approaches limited to hydrometric fitting targets. If only data from isotope profiles in combination with textural information is available, the results are still satisfactory. This method has the additional advantage that it will not only allow us to estimate water balance and response times but also site-specific time variant transit times or solute breakthrough within the soil profile.

Description: Corrigendum to "Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin" published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2577–2586, 2015 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2637-2637, 2015 Author(s): F. Wetterhall, H. C. Winsemius, E. Dutra, M. Werner, and F. Pappenberger

Description: The representation of location by a regional climate model in complex terrain Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3449-3456, 2015 Author(s): D. Maraun and M. Widmann To assess potential impacts of climate change for a specific location, one typically employs climate model simulations at the grid box corresponding to the same geographical location. For most of Europe, this choice is well justified. But, based on regional climate simulations, we show that simulated climate might be systematically displaced compared to observations. In particular in the rain shadow of mountain ranges, a local grid box is therefore often not representative of observed climate: the simulated windward weather does not flow far enough across the mountains; local grid boxes experience the wrong air masses and atmospheric circulation. In some cases, also the local climate change signal is deteriorated. Classical bias correction methods fail to correct these location errors. Often, however, a distant simulated time series is representative of the considered observed precipitation, such that a non-local bias correction is possible. These findings also clarify limitations of bias correcting global model errors, and of bias correction against station data.

Description: How to predict hydrological effects of local land use change: how the vegetation parameterisation for short rotation coppices influences model results Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3457-3474, 2015 Author(s): F. Richter, C. Döring, M. Jansen, O. Panferov, U. Spank, and C. Bernhofer Among the different bioenergy sources, short rotation coppices (SRC) with poplar and willow trees are one of the promising options in Europe. SRC provide not only woody biomass but also additional ecosystem services. However, a known shortcoming is the potentially lower groundwater recharge caused by the potentially higher evapotranspiration demand compared to annual crops. The complex feedbacks between vegetation cover and water cycle can be only correctly assessed by application of well-parameterised and calibrated numerical models. In the present study, the hydrological model system WaSim (Wasserhaushalts-Simulations-Model) is implemented for assessment of the water balance. The focus is the analysis of simulation uncertainties caused by the use of guidelines or transferred parameter sets from scientific literature compared to "actual" parameterisations derived from local measurements of leaf area index (LAI), stomatal resistance (Rsc) and date of leaf unfolding (LU). The analysis showed that uncertainties in parameterisation of vegetation lead to implausible model results. LAI, Rsc and LU are the most sensitive plant physiological parameters concerning the effects of enhanced SRC cultivation on water budget or groundwater recharge. Particularly sensitive is the beginning of the growing season, i.e. LU. When this estimation is wrong, the accuracy of LAI and Rsc description plays a minor role. Our analyses illustrate that the use of locally measured vegetation parameters, like maximal LAI, and meteorological variables, like air temperature, to estimate LU give better results than literature data or data from remote network stations. However, the direct implementation of locally measured data is not always advisable or possible. Regarding Rsc, the adjustment of local measurements gives the best model evaluation. For local and accurate studies, measurements of model sensitive parameters like LAI, Rsc and LU are valuable information. The derivation of these model parameters based on local measurements shows the best model fit. Additionally, the adjusted seasonal course of LAI and Rsc is less sensitive to different estimates for LU. Different parameterisations, as they are all eligible either from local measurements or scientific literature, can result in modelled ground water recharge to be present or completely absent in certain years under poplar SRC.

Description: Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3517-3539, 2015 Author(s): G. Benito, R. Brázdil, J. Herget, and M. J. Machado In recent decades, the quantification of flood hydrological characteristics (peak discharge, hydrograph shape, and runoff volume) from documentary evidence has gained scientific recognition as a method to lengthen flood records of rare and extreme events. This paper describes the methodological evolution of quantitative historical hydrology under the influence of developments in hydraulics and statistics. In the 19th century, discharge calculations based on flood marks were the only source of hydrological data for engineering design, but were later left aside in favour of systematic gauge records and conventional hydrological procedures. In the last two decades, there has been growing scientific and public interest in understanding long-term patterns of rare floods, in maintaining the flood heritage and memory of extremes, and developing methods for deterministic and statistical application to different scientific and engineering problems. A compilation of 46 case studies across Europe with reconstructed discharges demonstrates that (1) in most cases present flood magnitudes are not unusual within the context of the last millennium, although recent floods may exceed past floods in some temperate European rivers (e.g. the Vltava and Po rivers); (2) the frequency of extreme floods has decreased since the 1950s, although some rivers (e.g. the Gardon and Ouse rivers) show a reactivation of rare events over the last two decades. There is a great potential for gaining understanding of individual extreme events based on a combined multiproxy approach (palaeoflood and documentary records) providing high-resolution time flood series and their environmental and climatic changes; and for developing non-systematic and non-stationary statistical models based on relations of past floods with external and internal covariates under natural low-frequency climate variability.

Description: Characterization of precipitation product errors across the United States using multiplicative triple collocation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3489-3503, 2015 Author(s): S. H. Alemohammad, K. A. McColl, A. G. Konings, D. Entekhabi, and A. Stoffelen Validation of precipitation estimates from various products is a challenging problem, since the true precipitation is unknown. However, with the increased availability of precipitation estimates from a wide range of instruments (satellite, ground-based radar, and gauge), it is now possible to apply the triple collocation (TC) technique to characterize the uncertainties in each of the products. Classical TC takes advantage of three collocated data products of the same variable and estimates the mean squared error of each, without requiring knowledge of the truth. In this study, triplets among NEXRAD-IV, TRMM 3B42RT, GPCP 1DD, and GPI products are used to quantify the associated spatial error characteristics across a central part of the continental US. Data are aggregated to biweekly accumulations from January 2002 through April 2014 across a 2° × 2° spatial grid. This is the first study of its kind to explore precipitation estimation errors using TC across the US. A multiplicative (logarithmic) error model is incorporated in the original TC formulation to relate the precipitation estimates to the unknown truth. For precipitation application, this is more realistic than the additive error model used in the original TC derivations, which is generally appropriate for existing applications such as in the case of wind vector components and soil moisture comparisons. This study provides error estimates of the precipitation products that can be incorporated into hydrological and meteorological models, especially those used in data assimilation. Physical interpretations of the error fields (related to topography, climate, etc.) are explored. The methodology presented in this study could be used to quantify the uncertainties associated with precipitation estimates from each of the constellations of GPM satellites. Such quantification is prerequisite to optimally merging these estimates.

Description: Improving multi-objective reservoir operation optimization with sensitivity-informed dimension reduction Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3557-3570, 2015 Author(s): J. Chu, C. Zhang, G. Fu, Y. Li, and H. Zhou This study investigates the effectiveness of a sensitivity-informed method for multi-objective operation of reservoir systems, which uses global sensitivity analysis as a screening tool to reduce computational demands. Sobol's method is used to screen insensitive decision variables and guide the formulation of the optimization problems with a significantly reduced number of decision variables. This sensitivity-informed method dramatically reduces the computational demands required for attaining high-quality approximations of optimal trade-off relationships between conflicting design objectives. The search results obtained from the reduced complexity multi-objective reservoir operation problems are then used to pre-condition the full search of the original optimization problem. In two case studies, the Dahuofang reservoir and the inter-basin multi-reservoir system in Liaoning province, China, sensitivity analysis results show that reservoir performance is strongly controlled by a small proportion of decision variables. Sensitivity-informed dimension reduction and pre-conditioning are evaluated in their ability to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of multi-objective evolutionary optimization. Overall, this study illustrates the efficiency and effectiveness of the sensitivity-informed method and the use of global sensitivity analysis to inform dimension reduction of optimization problems when solving complex multi-objective reservoir operation problems.

Description: Measurement and interpolation uncertainties in rainfall maps from cellular communication networks Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3571-3584, 2015 Author(s): M. F. Rios Gaona, A. Overeem, H. Leijnse, and R. Uijlenhoet Accurate measurements of rainfall are important in many hydrological and meteorological applications, for instance, flash-flood early-warning systems, hydraulic structures design, irrigation, weather forecasting, and climate modelling. Whenever possible, link networks measure and store the received power of the electromagnetic signal at regular intervals. The decrease in power can be converted to rainfall intensity, and is largely due to the attenuation by raindrops along the link paths. Such an alternative technique fulfils the continuous effort to obtain measurements of rainfall in time and space at higher resolutions, especially in places where traditional rain gauge networks are scarce or poorly maintained. Rainfall maps from microwave link networks have recently been introduced at country-wide scales. Despite their potential in rainfall estimation at high spatiotemporal resolutions, the uncertainties present in rainfall maps from link networks are not yet fully comprehended. The aim of this work is to identify and quantify the sources of uncertainty present in interpolated rainfall maps from link rainfall depths. In order to disentangle these sources of uncertainty, we classified them into two categories: (1) those associated with the individual microwave link measurements, i.e. the errors involved in link rainfall retrievals, such as wet antenna attenuation, sampling interval of measurements, wet/dry period classification, dry weather baseline attenuation, quantization of the received power, drop size distribution (DSD), and multi-path propagation; and (2) those associated with mapping, i.e. the combined effect of the interpolation methodology and the spatial density of link measurements. We computed ~ 3500 rainfall maps from real and simulated link rainfall depths for 12 days for the land surface of the Netherlands. Simulated link rainfall depths refer to path-averaged rainfall depths obtained from radar data. The ~ 3500 real and simulated rainfall maps were compared against quality-controlled gauge-adjusted radar rainfall fields (assumed to be the ground truth). Thus, we were able to not only identify and quantify the sources of uncertainty in such rainfall maps, but also test the actual and optimal performance of one commercial microwave network from one of the cellular providers in the Netherlands. Errors in microwave link measurements were found to be the source that contributes most to the overall uncertainty.

Description: GlobWat – a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3829-3844, 2015 Author(s): J. Hoogeveen, J.-M. Faurès, L. Peiser, J. Burke, and N. van de Giesen GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to assess water use in irrigated agriculture, the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed high-resolution data sets that are consistent at global level and calibrated against values for internal renewable water resources, as published in AQUASTAT, the FAO's global information system on water and agriculture. Validation of the model is done against mean annual river basin outflows. The water balance is calculated in two steps: first a "vertical" water balance is calculated that includes evaporation from in situ rainfall ("green" water) and incremental evaporation from irrigated crops. In a second stage, a "horizontal" water balance is calculated to determine discharges from river (sub-)basins, taking into account incremental evaporation from irrigation, open water and wetlands ("blue" water). The paper describes the methodology, input and output data, calibration and validation of the model. The model results are finally compared with other global water balance models to assess levels of accuracy and validity.

Description: Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3807-3827, 2015 Author(s): J. C. Peña, L. Schulte, A. Badoux, M. Barriendos, and A. Barrera-Escoda The higher frequency of severe flood events in Switzerland in recent decades has given fresh impetus to the study of flood patterns and their possible forcing mechanisms, particularly in mountain environments. This paper presents a new index of summer flood damage that considers severe and catastrophic summer floods in Switzerland between 1800 and 2009, and explores the influence of external forcings on flood frequencies. In addition, links between floods and low-frequency atmospheric variability patterns are examined. The flood damage index provides evidence that the 1817–1851, 1881–1927, 1977–1990 and 2005–present flood clusters occur mostly in phase with palaeoclimate proxies. The cross-spectral analysis documents that the periodicities detected in the coherency and phase spectra of 11 (Schwabe cycle) and 104 years (Gleissberg cycle) are related to a high frequency of flooding and solar activity minima, whereas the 22-year cyclicity detected (Hale cycle) is associated with solar activity maxima and a decrease in flood frequency. The analysis of low-frequency atmospheric variability modes shows that Switzerland lies close to the border of the principal summer mode. The Swiss river catchments situated on the centre and southern flank of the Alps are affected by atmospherically unstable areas defined by the positive phase of the pattern, while those basins located in the northern slope of the Alps are predominantly associated with the negative phase of the pattern. Furthermore, a change in the low-frequency atmospheric variability pattern related to the major floods occurred over the period from 1800 to 2009; the summer principal mode persists in the negative phase during the last cool pulses of the Little Ice Age (1817–1851 and 1881–1927 flood clusters), whereas the positive phases of the mode prevail during the warmer climate of the last 4 decades (flood clusters from 1977 to present).

Description: Use of satellite and modeled soil moisture data for predicting event soil loss at plot scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3845-3856, 2015 Author(s): F. Todisco, L. Brocca, L. F. Termite, and W. Wagner The potential of coupling soil moisture and a Universal Soil Loss Equation-based (USLE-based) model for event soil loss estimation at plot scale is carefully investigated at the Masse area, in central Italy. The derived model, named Soil Moisture for Erosion (SM4E), is applied by considering the unavailability of in situ soil moisture measurements, by using the data predicted by a soil water balance model (SWBM) and derived from satellite sensors, i.e., the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). The soil loss estimation accuracy is validated using in situ measurements in which event observations at plot scale are available for the period 2008–2013. The results showed that including soil moisture observations in the event rainfall–runoff erosivity factor of the USLE enhances the capability of the model to account for variations in event soil losses, the soil moisture being an effective alternative to the estimated runoff, in the prediction of the event soil loss at Masse. The agreement between observed and estimated soil losses (through SM4E) is fairly satisfactory with a determination coefficient (log-scale) equal to ~ 0.35 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of ~ 2.8 Mg ha −1 . These results are particularly significant for the operational estimation of soil losses. Indeed, currently, soil moisture is a relatively simple measurement at the field scale and remote sensing data are also widely available on a global scale. Through satellite data, there is the potential of applying the SM4E model for large-scale monitoring and quantification of the soil erosion process.

Description: Computation of vertically averaged velocities in irregular sections of straight channels Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3857-3873, 2015 Author(s): E. Spada, T. Tucciarelli, M. Sinagra, V. Sammartano, and G. Corato Two new methods for vertically averaged velocity computation are presented, validated and compared with other available formulas. The first method derives from the well-known Huthoff algorithm, which is first shown to be dependent on the way the river cross section is discretized into several subsections. The second method assumes the vertically averaged longitudinal velocity to be a function only of the friction factor and of the so-called "local hydraulic radius", computed as the ratio between the integral of the elementary areas around a given vertical and the integral of the elementary solid boundaries around the same vertical. Both integrals are weighted with a linear shape function equal to zero at a distance from the integration variable which is proportional to the water depth according to an empirical coefficient β. Both formulas are validated against (1) laboratory experimental data, (2) discharge hydrographs measured in a real site, where the friction factor is estimated from an unsteady-state analysis of water levels recorded in two different river cross sections, and (3) the 3-D solution obtained using the commercial ANSYS CFX code, computing the steady-state uniform flow in a cross section of the Alzette River.

Description: Performance evaluation of groundwater model hydrostratigraphy from airborne electromagnetic data and lithological borehole logs Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3875-3890, 2015 Author(s): P. A. Marker, N. Foged, X. He, A. V. Christiansen, J. C. Refsgaard, E. Auken, and P. Bauer-Gottwein Large-scale hydrological models are important decision support tools in water resources management. The largest source of uncertainty in such models is the hydrostratigraphic model. Geometry and configuration of hydrogeological units are often poorly determined from hydrogeological data alone. Due to sparse sampling in space, lithological borehole logs may overlook structures that are important for groundwater flow at larger scales. Good spatial coverage along with high spatial resolution makes airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data valuable for the structural input to large-scale groundwater models. We present a novel method to automatically integrate large AEM data sets and lithological information into large-scale hydrological models. Clay-fraction maps are produced by translating geophysical resistivity into clay-fraction values using lithological borehole information. Voxel models of electrical resistivity and clay fraction are classified into hydrostratigraphic zones using k -means clustering. Hydraulic conductivity values of the zones are estimated by hydrological calibration using hydraulic head and stream discharge observations. The method is applied to a Danish case study. Benchmarking hydrological performance by comparison of performance statistics from comparable hydrological models, the cluster model performed competitively. Calibrations of 11 hydrostratigraphic cluster models with 1–11 hydraulic conductivity zones showed improved hydrological performance with an increasing number of clusters. Beyond the 5-cluster model hydrological performance did not improve. Due to reproducibility and possibility of method standardization and automation, we believe that hydrostratigraphic model generation with the proposed method has important prospects for groundwater models used in water resources management.

Description: Groundwater flow processes and mixing in active volcanic systems: the case of Guadalajara (Mexico) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3937-3950, 2015 Author(s): A. Hernández-Antonio, J. Mahlknecht, C. Tamez-Meléndez, J. Ramos-Leal, A. Ramírez-Orozco, R. Parra, N. Ornelas-Soto, and C. J. Eastoe Groundwater chemistry and isotopic data from 40 production wells in the Atemajac and Toluquilla valleys, located in and around the Guadalajara metropolitan area, were determined to develop a conceptual model of groundwater flow processes and mixing. Stable water isotopes (δ 2 H, δ 18 O) were used to trace hydrological processes and tritium ( 3 H) to evaluate the relative contribution of modern water in samples. Multivariate analysis including cluster analysis and principal component analysis were used to elucidate distribution patterns of constituents and factors controlling groundwater chemistry. Based on this analysis, groundwater was classified into four groups: cold groundwater, hydrothermal groundwater, polluted groundwater and mixed groundwater. Cold groundwater is characterized by low temperature, salinity, and Cl and Na concentrations and is predominantly of Na-HCO 3 -type. It originates as recharge at "La Primavera" caldera and is found predominantly in wells in the upper Atemajac Valley. Hydrothermal groundwater is characterized by high salinity, temperature, Cl, Na and HCO 3 , and the presence of minor elements such as Li, Mn and F. It is a mixed-HCO 3 type found in wells from Toluquilla Valley and represents regional flow circulation through basaltic and andesitic rocks. Polluted groundwater is characterized by elevated nitrate and sulfate concentrations and is usually derived from urban water cycling and subordinately from agricultural return flow. Mixed groundwaters between cold and hydrothermal components are predominantly found in the lower Atemajac Valley. Twenty-seven groundwater samples contain at least a small fraction of modern water. The application of a multivariate mixing model allowed the mixing proportions of hydrothermal fluids, polluted waters and cold groundwater in sampled water to be evaluated. This study will help local water authorities to identify and dimension groundwater contamination, and act accordingly. It may be broadly applicable to other active volcanic systems on Earth.

Description: Performance and robustness of probabilistic river forecasts computed with quantile regression based on multiple independent variables Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3969-3990, 2015 Author(s): F. Hoss and P. S. Fischbeck This study applies quantile regression (QR) to predict exceedance probabilities of various water levels, including flood stages, with combinations of deterministic forecasts, past forecast errors and rates of water level rise as independent variables. A computationally cheap technique to estimate forecast uncertainty is valuable, because many national flood forecasting services, such as the National Weather Service (NWS), only publish deterministic single-valued forecasts. The study uses data from the 82 river gauges, for which the NWS' North Central River Forecast Center issues forecasts daily. Archived forecasts for lead times of up to 6 days from 2001 to 2013 were analyzed. Besides the forecast itself, this study uses the rate of rise of the river stage in the last 24 and 48 h and the forecast error 24 and 48 h ago as predictors in QR configurations. When compared to just using the forecast as an independent variable, adding the latter four predictors significantly improved the forecasts, as measured by the Brier skill score and the continuous ranked probability score. Mainly, the resolution increases, as the forecast-only QR configuration already delivered high reliability. Combining the forecast with the other four predictors results in a much less favorable performance. Lastly, the forecast performance does not strongly depend on the size of the training data set but on the year, the river gauge, lead time and event threshold that are being forecast. We find that each event threshold requires a separate configuration or at least calibration.

Description: Technical Note: The use of an interrupted-flow centrifugation method to characterise preferential flow in low permeability media Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3991-4000, 2015 Author(s): R. A. Crane, M. O. Cuthbert, and W. Timms We present an interrupted-flow centrifugation technique to characterise preferential flow in low permeability media. The method entails a minimum of three phases: centrifuge-induced flow, no flow and centrifuge-induced flow, which may be repeated several times in order to most effectively characterise multi-rate mass transfer behaviour. In addition, the method enables accurate simulation of relevant in situ total stress conditions during flow by selecting an appropriate centrifugal force. We demonstrate the utility of the technique for characterising the hydraulic properties of smectite-clay-dominated core samples. All core samples exhibited a non-Fickian tracer breakthrough (early tracer arrival), combined with a decrease in tracer concentration immediately after each period of interrupted flow. This is indicative of dual (or multi-)porosity behaviour, with solute migration predominately via advection during induced flow, and via molecular diffusion (between the preferential flow network(s) and the low hydraulic conductivity domain) during interrupted flow. Tracer breakthrough curves were simulated using a bespoke dual porosity model with excellent agreement between the data and model output (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient was 〉 0.97 for all samples). In combination, interrupted-flow centrifuge experiments and dual porosity transport modelling are shown to be a powerful method to characterise preferential flow in low permeability media.

Description: From runoff to rainfall: inverse rainfall–runoff modelling in a high temporal resolution Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4619-4639, 2015 Author(s): M. Herrnegger, H. P. Nachtnebel, and K. Schulz Rainfall exhibits a large spatio-temporal variability, especially in complex alpine terrain. Additionally, the density of the monitoring network in mountainous regions is low and measurements are subjected to major errors, which lead to significant uncertainties in areal rainfall estimates. In contrast, the most reliable hydrological information available refers to runoff, which in the presented work is used as input for an inverted HBV-type rainfall–runoff model that is embedded in a root finding algorithm. For every time step a rainfall value is determined, which results in a simulated runoff value closely matching the observed runoff. The inverse model is applied and tested to the Schliefau and Krems catchments, situated in the northern Austrian Alpine foothills. The correlations between inferred rainfall and station observations in the proximity of the catchments are of similar magnitude compared to the correlations between station observations and independent INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) rainfall analyses provided by the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG). The cumulative precipitation sums also show similar dynamics. The application of the inverse model is a promising approach to obtain additional information on mean areal rainfall. This additional information is not solely limited to the simulated hourly data but also includes the aggregated daily rainfall rates, which show a significantly higher correlation to the observed values. Potential applications of the inverse model include gaining additional information on catchment rainfall for interpolation purposes, flood forecasting or the estimation of snowmelt contribution. The application is limited to (smaller) catchments, which can be represented with a lumped model setup, and to the estimation of liquid rainfall.

Description: The SPARSE model for the prediction of water stress and evapotranspiration components from thermal infra-red data and its evaluation over irrigated and rainfed wheat Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4653-4672, 2015 Author(s): G. Boulet, B. Mougenot, J.-P. Lhomme, P. Fanise, Z. Lili-Chabaane, A. Olioso, M. Bahir, V. Rivalland, L. Jarlan, O. Merlin, B. Coudert, S. Er-Raki, and J.-P. Lagouarde Evapotranspiration is an important component of the water cycle, especially in semi-arid lands. A way to quantify the spatial distribution of evapotranspiration and water stress from remote-sensing data is to exploit the available surface temperature as a signature of the surface energy balance. Remotely sensed energy balance models enable one to estimate stress levels and, in turn, the water status of continental surfaces. Dual-source models are particularly useful since they allow derivation of a rough estimate of the water stress of the vegetation instead of that of a soil–vegetation composite. They either assume that the soil and the vegetation interact almost independently with the atmosphere (patch approach corresponding to a parallel resistance scheme) or are tightly coupled (layer approach corresponding to a series resistance scheme). The water status of both sources is solved simultaneously from a single surface temperature observation based on a realistic underlying assumption which states that, in most cases, the vegetation is unstressed, and that if the vegetation is stressed, evaporation is negligible. In the latter case, if the vegetation stress is not properly accounted for, the resulting evaporation will decrease to unrealistic levels (negative fluxes) in order to maintain the same total surface temperature. This work assesses the retrieval performances of total and component evapotranspiration as well as surface and plant water stress levels by (1) proposing a new dual-source model named Soil Plant Atmosphere and Remote Sensing Evapotranspiration (SPARSE) in two versions (parallel and series resistance networks) based on the TSEB (Two-Source Energy Balance model, Norman et al., 1995) model rationale as well as state-of-the-art formulations of turbulent and radiative exchange, (2) challenging the limits of the underlying hypothesis for those two versions through a synthetic retrieval test and (3) testing the water stress retrievals (vegetation water stress and moisture-limited soil evaporation) against in situ data over contrasted test sites (irrigated and rainfed wheat). We demonstrated with those two data sets that the SPARSE series model is more robust to component stress retrieval for this cover type, that its performance increases by using bounding relationships based on potential conditions (root mean square error lowered by up to 11 W m −2 from values of the order of 50–80 W m −2 ), and that soil evaporation retrieval is generally consistent with an independent estimate from observed soil moisture evolution.

Description: Climate change and its impacts on river discharge in two climate regions in China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4609-4618, 2015 Author(s): H. Xu and Y. Luo Understanding the heterogeneity of climate change and its impacts on annual and seasonal discharge and the difference between median flow and extreme flow in different climate regions is of utmost importance to successful water management. To quantify the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of climate change impacts on hydrological processes, this study simulated river discharge in the River Huangfuchuan in semi-arid northern China and in the River Xiangxi in humid southern China. The study assessed the uncertainty in projected discharge for three time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) using seven equally weighted GCMs (global climate models) for the SRES (Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario. Climate projections that were applied to semi-distributed hydrological models (Soil Water Assessment Tools, SWAT) in both catchments showed trends toward warmer and wetter conditions, particularly for the River Huangfuchuan. Results based on seven GCMs' projections indicated changes from −1.1 to 8.6 °C and 0.3 to 7.0 °C in seasonal temperature and changes from −29 to 139 % and −32 to 85 % in seasonal precipitation in the rivers Huangfuchuan and Xiangxi, respectively. The largest increases in temperature and precipitation in both catchments were projected in the spring and winter seasons. The main projected hydrologic impact was a more pronounced increase in annual discharge in the River Huangfuchuan than in the River Xiangxi. Most of the GCMs projected increased discharge in all seasons, especially in spring, although the magnitude of these increases varied between GCMs. The peak flows were projected to appear earlier than usual in the River Huangfuchuan and later than usual in the River Xiangxi, while the GCMs were fairly consistent in projecting increased extreme flows in both catchments with varying magnitude compared to median flows. For the River Huangfuchuan in the 2080s, median flow changed from −2 to 304 %, compared to a −1 to 145 % change in high flow (Q05 exceedance threshold). For the River Xiangxi, low flow (Q95 exceedance threshold) changed from −1 to 77 % and high flow changed from −1 to 62 %, while median flow changed from −4 to 23 %. The uncertainty analysis provided an improved understanding of future hydrologic behavior in the watershed. Furthermore, this study indicated that the uncertainty constrained by GCMs was critical and should always be considered in analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation.

Description: Moving sociohydrology forward: a synthesis across studies Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3667-3679, 2015 Author(s): T. J. Troy, M. Konar, V. Srinivasan, and S. Thompson Sociohydrology is the study of coupled human–water systems, building on the premise that water and human systems co-evolve: the state of the water system feeds back onto the human system, and vice versa, a situation denoted as "two-way coupling". A recent special issue in HESS/ESD, "Predictions under change: water, earth, and biota in the Anthropocene", includes a number of sociohydrologic publications that allow for a survey of the current state of understanding of sociohydrology and the dynamics and feedbacks that couple water and human systems together, of the research methodologies being employed to date, and of the normative and ethical issues raised by the study of sociohydrologic systems. Although sociohydrology is concerned with coupled human–water systems, the feedback may be filtered by a connection through natural or social systems, for example, the health of a fishery or through the global food trade, and therefore it may not always be possible to treat the human–water system in isolation. As part of a larger complex system, sociohydrology can draw on tools developed in the social–ecological and complex systems literature to further our sociohydrologic knowledge, and this is identified as a ripe area of future research.

Description: Transferring global uncertainty estimates from gauged to ungauged catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2535-2546, 2015 Author(s): F. Bourgin, V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, and L. Oudin Predicting streamflow hydrographs in ungauged catchments is challenging, and accompanying the estimates with realistic uncertainty bounds is an even more complex task. In this paper, we present a method to transfer global uncertainty estimates from gauged to ungauged catchments and we test it over a set of 907 catchments located in France, using two rainfall–runoff models. We evaluate the quality of the uncertainty estimates based on three expected qualities: reliability, sharpness, and overall skill. The robustness of the method to the availability of information on gauged catchments was also evaluated using a hydrometrical desert approach. Our results show that the method presents advantageous perspectives, providing reliable and sharp uncertainty bounds at ungauged locations in a majority of cases.

Description: Extending periodic eddy covariance latent heat fluxes through tree sap-flow measurements to estimate long-term total evaporation in a peat swamp forest Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2513-2534, 2015 Author(s): A. D. Clulow, C. S. Everson, M. G. Mengistu, J. S. Price, A. Nickless, and G. P. W. Jewitt A combination of measurement and modelling was used to find a pragmatic solution to estimate the annual total evaporation from the rare and indigenous Nkazana Peat Swamp Forest (PSF) on the east coast of Southern Africa to improve the water balance estimates within the area. Actual total evaporation (ET a ) was measured during three window periods (between 7 and 9 days each) using an eddy covariance (EC) system on a telescopic mast above the forest canopy. Sap flows of an understory tree and an emergent tree were measured using a low-maintenance heat pulse velocity system for an entire hydrological year (October 2009 to September 2010). An empirical model was derived, describing the relationship between ET a from the Nkazana PSF and sap-flow measurements. These overlapped during two of the window periods ( R 2 = 0.92 and 0.90), providing hourly estimates of ET a from the Nkazana PSF for a year, totalling 1125 mm (while rainfall was 650 mm). In building the empirical model, it was found that to include the understory tree sap flow provided no benefit to the model performance. In addition, the relationship between the emergent tree sap flow with ET a between the two field campaigns was consistent and could be represented by a single empirical model ( R 2 = 0.90; RMSE = 0.08 mm h −1 ). During the window periods of EC measurement, no single meteorological variable was found to describe the Nkazana PSF ET a satisfactorily. However, in terms of evaporation models, the hourly FAO Penman–Monteith reference evaporation (ET o ) best described ET a during the August 2009 ( R 2 = 0.75), November 2009 ( R 2 = 0.85) and March 2010 ( R 2 = 0.76) field campaigns, compared to the Priestley–Taylor potential evaporation (ET p ) model ( R 2 = 0.54, 0.74 and 0.62 during the respective field campaigns). From the extended record of ET a (derived in this study from sap flow) and ET o , a monthly crop factor ( K c ) was derived for the Nkazana PSF, providing a method of estimating long-term swamp forest water-use from meteorological data. The monthly K c indicated two distinct periods. From February to May, it was between 1.2 and 1.4 compared with June to January, when the crop factor was 0.8 to 1.0. The derived monthly K c values were verified as accurate (to one significant digit) using historical data measured at the same site, also using EC, from a previous study. The measurements provided insights into the microclimate within a subtropical peat swamp forest and the contrasting sap flow of emergent and understory trees. They showed that expensive, high-maintenance equipment can be used during manageable window periods in conjunction with low-maintenance systems, dedicated to individual trees, to derive a model to estimate long-term ET a over remote heterogeneous forests. In addition, the contrast in annual ET a and rainfall emphasised the reliance of the Nkazana PSF on groundwater.

Description: Virtual laboratories: new opportunities for collaborative water science Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2101-2117, 2015 Author(s): S. Ceola, B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione, and T. Wagener Reproducibility and repeatability of experiments are the fundamental prerequisites that allow researchers to validate results and share hydrological knowledge, experience and expertise in the light of global water management problems. Virtual laboratories offer new opportunities to enable these prerequisites since they allow experimenters to share data, tools and pre-defined experimental procedures (i.e. protocols). Here we present the outcomes of a first collaborative numerical experiment undertaken by five different international research groups in a virtual laboratory to address the key issues of reproducibility and repeatability. Moving from the definition of accurate and detailed experimental protocols, a rainfall–runoff model was independently applied to 15 European catchments by the research groups and model results were collectively examined through a web-based discussion. We found that a detailed modelling protocol was crucial to ensure the comparability and reproducibility of the proposed experiment across groups. Our results suggest that sharing comprehensive and precise protocols and running the experiments within a controlled environment (e.g. virtual laboratory) is as fundamental as sharing data and tools for ensuring experiment repeatability and reproducibility across the broad scientific community and thus advancing hydrology in a more coherent way.

Description: The Budyko and complementary relationships in an idealized model of large-scale land–atmosphere coupling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2119-2131, 2015 Author(s): B. R. Lintner, P. Gentine, K. L. Findell, and G. D. Salvucci Two well-known relationships in hydrology and hydrometeorology, the Budyko and complementary relationships, are examined within an idealized prototype representing the physics of large-scale land–atmosphere coupling developed in prior work. These relationships are shown to hold on long (climatologic) timescales because of the tight coupling that exists between precipitation, atmospheric radiation, moisture convergence and advection. The slope of the CR is shown to be dependent on the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship between saturation-specific humidity and temperature, with important implications for the continental hydrologic cycle in a warming climate; e.g., one consequence of this dependence is that the CR may be expected to become more asymmetric with warming, as higher values of the slope imply a larger change in potential evaporation for a given change in evapotranspiration. In addition, the transparent physics of the prototype permits diagnosis of the sensitivity of the Budyko and complementary relationships to various atmospheric and land surface processes. Here, the impacts of anthropogenic influences, including large-scale irrigation and global warming, are assessed.

Description: Actual evapotranspiration and precipitation measured by lysimeters: a comparison with eddy covariance and tipping bucket Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2145-2161, 2015 Author(s): S. Gebler, H.-J. Hendricks Franssen, T. Pütz, H. Post, M. Schmidt, and H. Vereecken This study compares actual evapotranspiration (ET a ) measurements by a set of six weighable lysimeters, ET a estimates obtained with the eddy covariance (EC) method, and evapotranspiration calculated with the full-form Penman–Monteith equation (ET PM ) for the Rollesbroich site in the Eifel (western Germany). The comparison of ET a measured by EC (including correction of the energy balance deficit) and by lysimeters is rarely reported in the literature and allows more insight into the performance of both methods. An evaluation of ET a for the two methods for the year 2012 shows a good agreement with a total difference of 3.8% (19 mm) between the ET a estimates. The highest agreement and smallest relative differences ( 〈 8%) on a monthly basis between both methods are found in summer. ET a was close to ET PM , indicating that ET was energy limited and not limited by water availability. ET a differences between lysimeter and EC were mainly related to differences in grass height caused by harvest and the EC footprint. The lysimeter data were also used to estimate precipitation amounts in combination with a filter algorithm for the high-precision lysimeters recently introduced by Peters et al. (2014). The estimated precipitation amounts from the lysimeter data differ significantly from precipitation amounts recorded with a standard rain gauge at the Rollesbroich test site. For the complete year 2012 the lysimeter records show a 16 % higher precipitation amount than the tipping bucket. After a correction of the tipping bucket measurements by the method of Richter (1995) this amount was reduced to 3%. With the help of an on-site camera the precipitation measurements of the lysimeters were analyzed in more detail. It was found that the lysimeters record more precipitation than the tipping bucket, in part related to the detection of rime and dew, which contribute 17% to the yearly difference between both methods. In addition, fog and drizzle explain an additional 5.5% of the total difference. Larger differences are also recorded for snow and sleet situations. During snowfall, the tipping bucket device underestimated precipitation severely, and these situations contributed also 7.9% to the total difference. However, 36% of the total yearly difference was associated with snow cover without apparent snowfall, and under these conditions snow bridges and snow drift seem to explain the strong overestimation of precipitation by the lysimeter. The remaining precipitation difference (about 33%) could not be explained and did not show a clear relation to wind speed. The variation of the individual lysimeters devices compared to the lysimeter mean are small, showing variations up to 3% for precipitation and 8% for evapotranspiration.

Description: Coupled local facilitation and global hydrologic inhibition drive landscape geometry in a patterned peatland Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2133-2144, 2015 Author(s): S. Acharya, D. A. Kaplan, S. Casey, M. J. Cohen, and J. W. Jawitz Self-organized landscape patterning can arise in response to multiple processes. Discriminating among alternative patterning mechanisms, particularly where experimental manipulations are untenable, requires process-based models. Previous modeling studies have attributed patterning in the Everglades (Florida, USA) to sediment redistribution and anisotropic soil hydraulic properties. In this work, we tested an alternate theory, the self-organizing-canal (SOC) hypothesis, by developing a cellular automata model that simulates pattern evolution via local positive feedbacks (i.e., facilitation) coupled with a global negative feedback based on hydrology. The model is forced by global hydroperiod that drives stochastic transitions between two patch types: ridge (higher elevation) and slough (lower elevation). We evaluated model performance using multiple criteria based on six statistical and geostatistical properties observed in reference portions of the Everglades landscape: patch density, patch anisotropy, semivariogram ranges, power-law scaling of ridge areas, perimeter area fractal dimension, and characteristic pattern wavelength. Model results showed strong statistical agreement with reference landscapes, but only when anisotropically acting local facilitation was coupled with hydrologic global feedback, for which several plausible mechanisms exist. Critically, the model correctly generated fractal landscapes that had no characteristic pattern wavelength, supporting the invocation of global rather than scale-specific negative feedbacks.

Description: Implementation and validation of a Wilks-type multi-site daily precipitation generator over a typical Alpine river catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2163-2177, 2015 Author(s): D. E. Keller, A. M. Fischer, C. Frei, M. A. Liniger, C. Appenzeller, and R. Knutti Many climate impact assessments require high-resolution precipitation time series that have a spatio-temporal correlation structure consistent with observations, for simulating either current or future climate conditions. In this respect, weather generators (WGs) designed and calibrated for multiple sites are an appealing statistical downscaling technique to stochastically simulate multiple realisations of possible future time series consistent with the local precipitation characteristics and their expected future changes. In this study, we present the implementation and validation of a multi-site daily precipitation generator re-built after the methodology described in Wilks (1998). The generator consists of several Richardson-type WGs run with spatially correlated random number streams. This study aims at investigating the capabilities, the added value and the limitations of the precipitation generator for a typical Alpine river catchment in the Swiss Alpine region under current climate. The calibrated multi-site WG is skilful at individual sites in representing the annual cycle of the precipitation statistics, such as mean wet day frequency and intensity as well as monthly precipitation sums. It reproduces realistically the multi-day statistics such as the frequencies of dry and wet spell lengths and precipitation sums over consecutive wet days. Substantial added value is demonstrated in simulating daily areal precipitation sums in comparison to multiple WGs that lack the spatial dependency in the stochastic process. Limitations are seen in reproducing daily and multi-day extreme precipitation sums, observed variability from year to year and in reproducing long dry spell lengths. Given the performance of the presented generator, we conclude that it is a useful tool to generate precipitation series consistent with the mean climatic aspects and likely helpful to be used as a downscaling technique for climate change scenarios.

Description: Evolution of the human–water relationships in the Heihe River basin in the past 2000 years Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2261-2273, 2015 Author(s): Z. Lu, Y. Wei, H. Xiao, S. Zou, J. Xie, J. Ren, and A. Western This paper quantitatively analyzed the evolution of human–water relationships in the Heihe River basin of northern China over the past 2000 years by reconstructing the catchment water balance by partitioning precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff. The results provided the basis for investigating the impacts of societies on hydrological systems. Based on transition theory and the rates of changes of the population, human water consumption and the area of natural oases, the evolution of human–water relationships can be divided into four stages: predevelopment (206 BC–AD 1368), take-off (AD 1368–1949), acceleration (AD 1949–2000), and the start of a rebalancing between human and ecological needs (post AD 2000). Our analysis of the evolutionary process revealed that there were large differences in the rate and scale of changes and the period over which they occurred. The transition of the human–water relationship had no fixed pattern. This understanding of the dynamics of the human–water relationship will assist policy makers in identifying management practices that require improvement by understanding how today's problems were created in the past, which may lead to more sustainable catchment management in the future.

Description: Reducing structural uncertainty in conceptual hydrological modelling in the semi-arid Andes Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2295-2314, 2015 Author(s): P. Hublart, D. Ruelland, A. Dezetter, and H. Jourde The use of lumped, conceptual models in hydrological impact studies requires placing more emphasis on the uncertainty arising from deficiencies and/or ambiguities in the model structure. This study provides an opportunity to combine a multiple-hypothesis framework with a multi-criteria assessment scheme to reduce structural uncertainty in the conceptual modelling of a mesoscale Andean catchment (1515 km 2 ) over a 30-year period (1982–2011). The modelling process was decomposed into six model-building decisions related to the following aspects of the system behaviour: snow accumulation and melt, runoff generation, redistribution and delay of water fluxes, and natural storage effects. Each of these decisions was provided with a set of alternative modelling options, resulting in a total of 72 competing model structures. These structures were calibrated using the concept of Pareto optimality with three criteria pertaining to streamflow simulations and one to the seasonal dynamics of snow processes. The results were analyzed in the four-dimensional (4-D) space of performance measures using a fuzzy c-means clustering technique and a differential split sample test, leading to identify 14 equally acceptable model hypotheses. A filtering approach was then applied to these best-performing structures in order to minimize the overall uncertainty envelope while maximizing the number of enclosed observations. This led to retain eight model hypotheses as a representation of the minimum structural uncertainty that could be obtained with this modelling framework. Future work to better consider model predictive uncertainty should include a proper assessment of parameter equifinality and data errors, as well as the testing of new or refined hypotheses to allow for the use of additional auxiliary observations.

Description: The question of Sudan: a hydro-economic optimization model for the Sudanese Blue Nile Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2275-2293, 2015 Author(s): S. Satti, B. Zaitchik, and S. Siddiqui The effects of development and the uncertainty of a changing climate in eastern Africa pose myriad challenges for water managers along the Blue Nile. Sudan's large irrigation potential, hydroelectric dams, and prime location within the basin mean that Sudan's water management decisions will have great social, economic and political implications for the region. At the same time, Sudan's water use options are constrained by tradeoffs between upstream irrigation developments and downstream hydropower facilities as well as by the country's commitments under existing or future transboundary water sharing agreements. Here, we present a model that can be applied to evaluate optimal allocation of surface water resources to irrigation and hydropower in the Sudanese portion of the Blue Nile. Hydrologic inputs are combined with agronomic and economic inputs to formulate an optimization model within the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). A sensitivity analysis is performed by testing model response to a range of economic conditions and to changes in the volume and timing of hydrologic flows. Results indicate that changing hydroclimate inputs have the capacity to greatly influence the productivity of Sudan's water resource infrastructure. Results also show that the economically optimal volume of water consumption, and thus the importance of existing treaty constraints, is sensitive to the perceived value of agriculture relative to electricity as well as to changing hydrological conditions.

Description: Local nutrient regimes determine site-specific environmental triggers of cyanobacterial and microcystin variability in urban lakes Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2179-2195, 2015 Author(s): S. C. Sinang, E. S. Reichwaldt, and A. Ghadouani Toxic cyanobacterial blooms in urban lakes present serious health hazards to humans and animals and require effective management strategies. Managing such blooms requires a sufficient understanding of the controlling environmental factors. A range of them has been proposed in the literature as potential triggers for cyanobacterial biomass development and cyanotoxin (e.g. microcystin) production in freshwater systems. However, the environmental triggers of cyanobacteria and microcystin variability remain a subject of debate due to contrasting findings. This issue has raised the question of whether the relevance of environmental triggers may depend on site-specific combinations of environmental factors. In this study, we investigated the site-specificity of environmental triggers for cyanobacterial bloom and microcystin dynamics in three urban lakes in Western Australia. Our study suggests that cyanobacterial biomass, cyanobacterial dominance and cyanobacterial microcystin content variability were significantly correlated to phosphorus and iron concentrations. However, the correlations were different between lakes, thus suggesting a site-specific effect of these environmental factors. The discrepancies in the correlations could be explained by differences in local nutrient concentration. For instance, we found no correlation between cyanobacterial fraction and total phosphorous (TP) in the lake with the highest TP concentration, while correlations were significant and negative in the other two lakes. In addition, our study indicates that the difference of the correlation between total iron (TFe) and the cyanobacterial fraction between lakes might have been a consequence of differences in the cyanobacterial community structure, specifically the presence or absence of nitrogen-fixing species. In conclusion, our study suggests that identification of significant environmental factors under site-specific conditions is an important strategy to enhance successful outcomes in cyanobacterial bloom control measures.

Description: Quantification of the influence of preferential flow on slope stability using a numerical modelling approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2197-2212, 2015 Author(s): W. Shao, T. A. Bogaard, M. Bakker, and R. Greco The effect of preferential flow on the stability of landslides is studied through numerical simulation of two types of rainfall events on a hypothetical hillslope. A model is developed that consists of two parts. The first part is a model for combined saturated/unsaturated subsurface flow and is used to compute the spatial and temporal water pressure response to rainfall. Preferential flow is simulated with a dual-permeability continuum model consisting of a matrix domain coupled to a preferential flow domain. The second part is a soil mechanics model and is used to compute the spatial and temporal distribution of the local factor of safety based on the water pressure distribution computed with the subsurface flow model. Two types of rainfall events were considered: long-duration, low-intensity rainfall, and short-duration, high-intensity rainfall. The effect of preferential flow on slope stability is assessed through comparison of the failure area when subsurface flow is simulated with the dual-permeability model as compared to a single-permeability model (no preferential flow). For the low-intensity rainfall case, preferential flow has a positive effect on drainage of the hillslope resulting in a smaller failure area. For the high-intensity rainfall case, preferential flow has a negative effect on the slope stability as the majority of rainfall infiltrates into the preferential flow domain when rainfall intensity exceeds the infiltration capacity of the matrix domain, resulting in larger water pressure and a larger failure area.

Description: Monitoring and modelling of soil–plant interactions: the joint use of ERT, sap flow and eddy covariance data to characterize the volume of an orange tree root zone Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2213-2225, 2015 Author(s): G. Cassiani, J. Boaga, D. Vanella, M. T. Perri, and S. Consoli Mass and energy exchanges between soil, plants and atmosphere control a number of key environmental processes involving hydrology, biota and climate. The understanding of these exchanges also play a critical role for practical purposes e.g. in precision agriculture. In this paper we present a methodology based on coupling innovative data collection and models in order to obtain quantitative estimates of the key parameters of such complex flow system. In particular we propose the use of hydro-geophysical monitoring via "time-lapse" electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) in conjunction with measurements of plant transpiration via sap flow and evapotranspiration (ET) from eddy covariance (EC). This abundance of data is fed to spatially distributed soil models in order to characterize the distribution of active roots. We conducted experiments in an orange orchard in eastern Sicily (Italy), characterized by the typical Mediterranean semi-arid climate. The subsoil dynamics, particularly influenced by irrigation and root uptake, were characterized mainly by the ERT set-up, consisting of 48 buried electrodes on 4 instrumented micro-boreholes (about 1.2 m deep) placed at the corners of a square (with about 1.3 m long sides) surrounding the orange tree, plus 24 mini-electrodes on the surface spaced 0.1 m on a square grid. During the monitoring, we collected repeated ERT and time domain reflectometry (TDR) soil moisture measurements, soil water sampling, sap flow measurements from the orange tree and EC data. We conducted a laboratory calibration of the soil electrical properties as a function of moisture content and porewater electrical conductivity. Irrigation, precipitation, sap flow and ET data are available allowing for knowledge of the system's long-term forcing conditions on the system. This information was used to calibrate a 1-D Richards' equation model representing the dynamics of the volume monitored via 3-D ERT. Information on the soil hydraulic properties was collected from laboratory and field experiments. The successful results of the calibrated modelling exercise allow for the quantification of the soil volume interested by root water uptake (RWU). This volume is much smaller (with a surface area less than 2 m 2 , and about 40 cm thick) than expected and assumed in the design of classical drip irrigation schemes that prove to be losing at least half of the irrigated water which is not taken up by the plants.

Description: Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the Nile Basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2227-2246, 2015 Author(s): C. Onyutha and P. Willems Spatiotemporal variability in annual and seasonal rainfall totals were assessed at 37 locations of the Nile Basin in Africa using quantile perturbation method (QPM). To get insight into the spatial difference in rainfall statistics, the stations were grouped based on the pattern of the long-term mean (LTM) of monthly rainfall and that of temporal variability. To find the origin of the driving forces for the temporal variability in rainfall, correlation analyses were carried out using global monthly sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST). Further investigations to support the obtained correlations were made using a total of 10 climate indices. It was possible to obtain three groups of stations; those within the equatorial region (A), Sudan and Ethiopia (B), and Egypt (C). For group A, annual rainfall was found to be below (above) the reference during the late 1940s to 1950s (1960s to mid-1980s). Conversely for groups B and C, the period from 1930s to late 1950s (1960s to 1980s) was characterized by anomalies being above (below) the reference. For group A, significant linkages were found to Niño 3, Niño 3.4, and the North Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean drivers. Correlations of annual rainfall of group A with Pacific Ocean-related climate indices were inconclusive. With respect to the main wet seasons, the June–September rainfall of group B has strong connection to the influence from the Indian Ocean. For the March–May (October–February) rainfall of group A (C), possible links to the Atlantic and Indian oceans were found.

Description: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2247-2260, 2015 Author(s): L. Alfieri, P. Burek, L. Feyen, and G. Forzieri EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Downscaling Experiment over Europe), a new generation of downscaled climate projections, has become available for climate change impact studies in Europe. New opportunities arise in the investigation of potential effects of a warmer world on meteorological and hydrological extremes at regional scales. In this work, an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCP8.5 scenarios is used to drive a distributed hydrological model and assess the projected changes in flood hazard in Europe through the current century. Changes in magnitude and frequency of extreme streamflow events are investigated by statistical distribution fitting and peak over threshold analysis. A consistent method is proposed to evaluate the agreement of ensemble projections. Results indicate that the change in frequency of discharge extremes is likely to have a larger impact on the overall flood hazard as compared to the change in their magnitude. On average, in Europe, flood peaks with return periods above 100 years are projected to double in frequency within 3 decades.

Description: An efficient workflow to accurately compute groundwater recharge for the study of rainfall-triggered deep-seated landslides, application to the Séchilienne unstable slope (western Alps) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 427-449, 2015 Author(s): A. Vallet, C. Bertrand, O. Fabbri, and J. Mudry Pore water pressure build-up by recharge of underground hydrosystems is one of the main triggering factors of deep-seated landslides. In most deep-seated landslides, pore water pressure data are not available since piezometers, if any, have a very short lifespan because of slope movements. As a consequence, indirect parameters, such as the calculated recharge, are the only data which enable understanding landslide hydrodynamic behaviour. However, in landslide studies, methods and recharge-area parameters used to determine the groundwater recharge are rarely detailed. In this study, the groundwater recharge is estimated with a soil-water balance based on characterisation of evapotranspiration and parameters characterising the recharge area (soil available water capacity, runoff and vegetation coefficient). A workflow to compute daily groundwater recharge is developed. This workflow requires the records of precipitation, air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed within or close to the landslide area. The determination of the parameters of the recharge area is based on a spatial analysis requiring field observations and spatial data sets (digital elevation models, aerial photographs and geological maps). This study demonstrates that the performance of the correlation with landslide displacement velocity data is significantly improved using the recharge estimated with the proposed workflow. The coefficient of determination obtained with the recharge estimated with the proposed workflow is 78% higher on average than that obtained with precipitation, and is 38% higher on average than that obtained with recharge computed with a commonly used simplification in landslide studies (recharge = precipitation minus non-calibrated evapotranspiration method).

Description: Inter-comparison of energy balance and hydrological models for land surface energy flux estimation over a whole river catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2017-2037, 2015 Author(s): R. Guzinski, H. Nieto, S. Stisen, and R. Fensholt Evapotranspiration (ET) is the main link between the natural water cycle and the land surface energy budget. Therefore water-balance and energy-balance approaches are two of the main methodologies for modelling this process. The water-balance approach is usually implemented as a complex, distributed hydrological model, while the energy-balance approach is often used with remotely sensed observations of, for example, the land surface temperature (LST) and the state of the vegetation. In this study we compare the catchment-scale output of two remote sensing models based on the two-source energy-balance (TSEB) scheme, against a hydrological model, MIKE SHE, calibrated over the Skjern river catchment in western Denmark. The three models utilize different primary inputs to estimate ET (LST from different satellites in the case of remote sensing models and modelled soil moisture and heat flux in the case of the MIKE SHE ET module). However, all three of them use the same ancillary data (meteorological measurements, land cover type and leaf area index, etc.) and produce output at similar spatial resolution (1 km for the TSEB models, 500 m for MIKE SHE). The comparison is performed on the spatial patterns of the fluxes present within the catchment area as well as on temporal patterns on the whole catchment scale in 8-year long time series. The results show that the spatial patterns of latent heat flux produced by the remote sensing models are more similar to each other than to the fluxes produced by MIKE SHE. The temporal patterns produced by the remote sensing and hydrological models are quite highly correlated ( r ≈ 0.8). This indicates potential benefits to the hydrological modelling community of integrating spatial information derived through remote sensing methodology (contained in the ET maps derived with the energy-balance models, satellite based LST or another source) into the hydrological models. How this could be achieved and how to evaluate the improvements, or lack of thereof, is still an open research question.

Description: Hydrological drought types in cold climates: quantitative analysis of causing factors and qualitative survey of impacts Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1993-2016, 2015 Author(s): A. F. Van Loon, S. W. Ploum, J. Parajka, A. K. Fleig, E. Garnier, G. Laaha, and H. A. J. Van Lanen For drought management and prediction, knowledge of causing factors and socio-economic impacts of hydrological droughts is crucial. Propagation of meteorological conditions in the hydrological cycle results in different hydrological drought types that require separate analysis. In addition to the existing hydrological drought typology, we here define two new drought types related to snow and ice. A snowmelt drought is a deficiency in the snowmelt discharge peak in spring in snow-influenced basins and a glaciermelt drought is a deficiency in the glaciermelt discharge peak in summer in glacierised basins. In 21 catchments in Austria and Norway we studied the meteorological conditions in the seasons preceding and at the time of snowmelt and glaciermelt drought events. Snowmelt droughts in Norway were mainly controlled by below-average winter precipitation, while in Austria both temperature and precipitation played a role. For glaciermelt droughts , the effect of below-average summer air temperature was dominant, both in Austria and Norway. Subsequently, we investigated the impacts of temperature-related drought types (i.e. snowmelt and glaciermelt drought , but also cold and warm snow season drought and rain-to-snow-season drought ). In historical archives and drought databases for the US and Europe many impacts were found that can be attributed to these temperature-related hydrological drought types, mainly in the agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) sectors. However, drawing conclusions on the frequency of occurrence of different drought types from reported impacts is difficult, mainly because of reporting biases and the inevitably limited spatial and temporal scales of the information. Finally, this study shows that complete integration of quantitative analysis of causing factors and qualitative analysis of impacts of temperature-related droughts is not yet possible. Analysis of selected events, however, points out that it can be a promising research area if more data on drought impacts become available.

Description: Spatial distribution of oxygen-18 and deuterium in stream waters across the Japanese archipelago Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1577-1588, 2015 Author(s): M. Katsuyama, T. Yoshioka, and E. Konohira The spatial distribution of oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition (δ 18 O and δ 2 H) of stream waters across Japan was clarified with a data set by compiling sample data obtained from 1278 forest catchments during the summer of 2003. Both δ 18 O and δ 2 H values showed positive correlations with the mean annual air temperature and annual evapotranspiration, and negative correlations with latitude and elevation. Deuterium excess (d-excess) values in stream waters were higher on the Sea of Japan side, and lower on the Pacific Ocean side, of the Japanese archipelago. The d-excess in precipitation was generally higher in winter and lower in summer in Japan. The Sea of Japan side experiences a great deal of snowfall, and seasonal changes in monthly precipitation are rather small. In contrast, the Pacific Ocean side experiences a large amount of rainfall during summer with low levels of precipitation during the winter. Therefore, the lower d-excess in stream waters on the Pacific Ocean side reflects summer precipitation, and the higher values on the Sea of Japan side are affected by delayed recharge from snowmelt. The isoscapes of stream water connote not only spatially integrated but also temporally integrated isotope signals of precipitation and provide a framework for addressing applied hydrological, ecological, or meteorological research questions at regional scales, such as the effects of climate change.

Description: Evaluation of high-resolution precipitation analyses using a dense station network Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1547-1559, 2015 Author(s): A. Kann, I. Meirold-Mautner, F. Schmid, G. Kirchengast, J. Fuchsberger, V. Meyer, L. Tüchler, and B. Bica The ability of radar–rain gauge merging algorithms to precisely analyse convective precipitation patterns is of high interest for many applications, e.g. hydrological modelling, thunderstorm warnings, and, as a reference, to spatially validate numerical weather prediction models. However, due to drawbacks of methods like cross-validation and due to the limited availability of reference data sets on high temporal and spatial scales, an adequate validation is usually hardly possible, especially on an operational basis. The present study evaluates the skill of very high-resolution and frequently updated precipitation analyses (rapid-INCA) by means of a very dense weather station network (WegenerNet), operated in a limited domain of the southeastern parts of Austria (Styria). Based on case studies and a longer-term validation over the convective season 2011, a general underestimation of the rapid-INCA precipitation amounts is shown by both continuous and categorical verification measures, although the temporal and spatial variability of the errors is – by convective nature – high. The contribution of the rain gauge measurements to the analysis skill is crucial. However, the capability of the analyses to precisely assess the convective precipitation distribution predominantly depends on the representativeness of the stations under the prevalent convective condition.

Description: Groundwater surface mapping informs sources of catchment baseflow Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1599-1613, 2015 Author(s): J. F. Costelloe, T. J. Peterson, K. Halbert, A. W. Western, and J. J. McDonnell Groundwater discharge is a major contributor to stream baseflow. Quantifying this flux is difficult, despite its considerable importance to water resource management and evaluation of the effects of groundwater extraction on streamflow. It is important to be able to differentiate between contributions to streamflow from regional groundwater discharge (more susceptible to groundwater extraction) compared to interflow processes (arguably less susceptible to groundwater extraction). Here we explore the use of groundwater surface mapping as an independent data set to constrain estimates of groundwater discharge to streamflow using traditional digital filter and tracer techniques. We developed groundwater surfaces from 88 monitoring bores using Kriging with external drift and for a subset of 33 bores with shallow screen depths. Baseflow estimates at the catchment outlet were made using the Eckhardt digital filter approach and tracer data mixing analysis using major ion signatures. Our groundwater mapping approach yielded two measures (percentage area intersecting the land surface and monthly change in saturated volume) that indicated that digital filter-derived baseflow significantly exceeded probable groundwater discharge during most months. Tracer analysis was not able to resolve contributions from ungauged tributary flows (sourced from either shallow flow paths, i.e. interflow and perched aquifer discharge, or regional groundwater discharge) and regional groundwater. Groundwater mapping was able to identify ungauged sub-catchments where regional groundwater discharge was too deep to contribute to tributary flow and thus where shallow flow paths dominated the tributary flow. Our results suggest that kriged groundwater surfaces provide a useful, empirical and independent data set for investigating sources of fluxes contributing to baseflow and identifying periods where baseflow analysis may overestimate groundwater discharge to streamflow.

Description: Improving operational flood ensemble prediction by the assimilation of satellite soil moisture: comparison between lumped and semi-distributed schemes Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1659-1676, 2015 Author(s): C. Alvarez-Garreton, D. Ryu, A. W. Western, C.-H. Su, W. T. Crow, D. E. Robertson, and C. Leahy Assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture data (SM-DA) to correct soil water stores of rainfall-runoff models has shown skill in improving streamflow prediction. In the case of large and sparsely monitored catchments, SM-DA is a particularly attractive tool. Within this context, we assimilate satellite soil moisture (SM) retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E), the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) instrument, using an Ensemble Kalman filter to improve operational flood prediction within a large (〉 40 000 km 2 ) semi-arid catchment in Australia. We assess the importance of accounting for channel routing and the spatial distribution of forcing data by applying SM-DA to a lumped and a semi-distributed scheme of the probability distributed model (PDM). Our scheme also accounts for model error representation by explicitly correcting bias in soil moisture and streamflow in the ensemble generation process, and for seasonal biases and errors in the satellite data. Before assimilation, the semi-distributed model provided a more accurate streamflow prediction (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE = 0.77) than the lumped model (NSE = 0.67) at the catchment outlet. However, this did not ensure good performance at the "ungauged" inner catchments (two of them with NSE below 0.3). After SM-DA, the streamflow ensemble prediction at the outlet was improved in both the lumped and the semi-distributed schemes: the root mean square error of the ensemble was reduced by 22 and 24%, respectively; the false alarm ratio was reduced by 9% in both cases; the peak volume error was reduced by 58 and 1%, respectively; the ensemble skill was improved (evidenced by 12 and 13% reductions in the continuous ranked probability scores, respectively); and the ensemble reliability was increased in both cases (expressed by flatter rank histograms). SM-DA did not improve NSE. Our findings imply that even when rainfall is the main driver of flooding in semi-arid catchments, adequately processed satellite SM can be used to reduce errors in the model soil moisture, which in turn provides better streamflow ensemble prediction. We demonstrate that SM-DA efficacy is enhanced when the spatial distribution in forcing data and routing processes are accounted for. At ungauged locations, SM-DA is effective at improving some characteristics of the streamflow ensemble prediction; however, the updated prediction is still poor since SM-DA does not address the systematic errors found in the model prior to assimilation.

Description: The Catchment Runoff Attenuation Flux Tool, a minimum information requirement nutrient pollution model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1641-1657, 2015 Author(s): R. Adams, P. F. Quinn, and M. J. Bowes A model for simulating runoff pathways and water quality fluxes has been developed using the minimum information requirement (MIR) approach. The model, the Catchment Runoff Attenuation Flux Tool (CRAFT), is applicable to mesoscale catchments and focusses primarily on hydrological pathways that mobilise nutrients. Hence CRAFT can be used to investigate the impact of flow pathway management intervention strategies designed to reduce the loads of nutrients into receiving watercourses. The model can help policy makers meet water quality targets and consider methods to obtain "good" ecological status. A case study of the 414 km 2 Frome catchment, Dorset, UK, has been described here as an application of CRAFT in order to highlight the above issues at the mesoscale. The model was primarily calibrated on 10-year records of weekly data to reproduce the observed flows and nutrient (nitrate nitrogen – N; phosphorus – P) concentrations. Data from 2 years with sub-daily monitoring at the same site were also analysed. These data highlighted some additional signals in the nutrient flux, particularly of soluble reactive phosphorus, which were not observable in the weekly data. This analysis has prompted the choice of using a daily time step as the minimum information requirement to simulate the processes observed at the mesoscale, including the impact of uncertainty. A management intervention scenario was also run to demonstrate how the model can support catchment managers investigating how reducing the concentrations of N and P in the various flow pathways. This mesoscale modelling tool can help policy makers consider a range of strategies to meet the European Union (EU) water quality targets for this type of catchment.

Description: Storm type effects on super Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of intense rainstorm properties with air temperature Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1753-1766, 2015 Author(s): P. Molnar, S. Fatichi, L. Gaál, J. Szolgay, and P. Burlando Extreme precipitation is thought to increase with warming at rates similar to or greater than the water vapour holding capacity of the air at ~ 7% °C −1 , the so-called Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate. We present an empirical study of the variability in the rates of increase in precipitation intensity with air temperature using 30 years of 10 min and 1 h data from 59 stations in Switzerland. The analysis is conducted on storm events rather than fixed interval data, and divided into storm type subsets based on the presence of lightning which is expected to indicate convection. The average rates of increase in extremes (95th percentile) of mean event intensity computed from 10 min data are 6.5% °C −1 (no-lightning events), 8.9% °C −1 (lightning events) and 10.7% °C −1 (all events combined). For peak 10 min intensities during an event the rates are 6.9% °C −1 (no-lightning events), 9.3% °C −1 (lightning events) and 13.0% °C −1 (all events combined). Mixing of the two storm types exaggerates the relations to air temperature. Doubled CC rates reported by other studies are an exception in our data set, even in convective rain. The large spatial variability in scaling rates across Switzerland suggests that both local (orographic) and regional effects limit moisture supply and availability in Alpine environments, especially in mountain valleys. The estimated number of convective events has increased across Switzerland in the last 30 years, with 30% of the stations showing statistically significant changes. The changes in intense convective storms with higher temperatures may be relevant for hydrological risk connected with those events in the future.

Description: Diagnostic calibration of a hydrological model in a mountain area by hydrograph partitioning Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1807-1826, 2015 Author(s): Z. H. He, F. Q. Tian, H. V. Gupta, H. C. Hu, and H. P. Hu Hydrological modeling can exploit informative signatures extracted from long time sequences of observed streamflow for parameter calibration and model diagnosis. In this study we explore the diagnostic potential of hydrograph partitioning for model calibration in mountain areas, where meltwater from snow and glaciers is an important source for river runoff (in addition to rainwater). We propose an index-based method to partition the hydrograph according to dominant runoff water sources, and a diagnostic approach to calibrate a mountain hydrological model. First, by accounting for the seasonal variability of precipitation and the altitudinal variability of temperature and snow/glacier coverage, we develop a set of indices to indicate the daily status of runoff generation from each type of water source (i.e., glacier meltwater, snow meltwater, rainwater, and groundwater). Second, these indices are used to partition a hydrograph into four parts associated with four different combinations of dominant water sources (i.e., groundwater, groundwater + snow meltwater, groundwater + snow meltwater + glacier meltwater, and groundwater + snow meltwater + glacier meltwater + rainwater). Third, the hydrological model parameters are grouped by the associated runoff sources, and each group is calibrated to match the corresponding hydrograph partition in a stepwise and iterative manner. Similar to use of the regime curve to diagnose seasonality of streamflow, the hydrograph partitioning curve based on a dominant runoff water source (more briefly called the partitioning curve, not necessarily continuous) can serve as a diagnostic signature that helps relate model performance to model components. The proposed methods are demonstrated via application of a semi-distributed hydrological model (THREW, Tsinghua Representative Elementary Watershed) to the Tailan River basin (TRB) (1324 km 2 ) in the Tianshan Mountains of China. Results show that the proposed calibration approach performed reasonably well. Cross-validation and comparison to an automatic calibration method indicated its robustness.

Description: Stochastic bias correction of dynamically downscaled precipitation fields for Germany through Copula-based integration of gridded observation data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1787-1806, 2015 Author(s): G. Mao, S. Vogl, P. Laux, S. Wagner, and H. Kunstmann Dynamically downscaled precipitation fields from regional climate models (RCMs) often cannot be used directly for regional climate studies. Due to their inherent biases, i.e., systematic over- or underestimations compared to observations, several correction approaches have been developed. Most of the bias correction procedures such as the quantile mapping approach employ a transfer function that is based on the statistical differences between RCM output and observations. Apart from such transfer function-based statistical correction algorithms, a stochastic bias correction technique, based on the concept of Copula theory, is developed here and applied to correct precipitation fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. For dynamically downscaled precipitation fields we used high-resolution (7 km, daily) WRF simulations for Germany driven by ERA40 reanalysis data for 1971–2000. The REGNIE (REGionalisierung der NIEderschlagshöhen) data set from the German Weather Service (DWD) is used as gridded observation data (1 km, daily) and aggregated to 7 km for this application. The 30-year time series are split into a calibration (1971–1985) and validation (1986–2000) period of equal length. Based on the estimated dependence structure (described by the Copula function) between WRF and REGNIE data and the identified respective marginal distributions in the calibration period, separately analyzed for the different seasons, conditional distribution functions are derived for each time step in the validation period. This finally allows to get additional information about the range of the statistically possible bias-corrected values. The results show that the Copula-based approach efficiently corrects most of the errors in WRF derived precipitation for all seasons. It is also found that the Copula-based correction performs better for wet bias correction than for dry bias correction. In autumn and winter, the correction introduced a small dry bias in the northwest of Germany. The average relative bias of daily mean precipitation from WRF for the validation period is reduced from 10% (wet bias) to −1% (slight dry bias) after the application of the Copula-based correction. The bias in different seasons is corrected from 32% March–April–May (MAM), −15% June–July–August (JJA), 4% September–October–November (SON) and 28% December–January–February (DJF) to 16% (MAM), −11% (JJA), −1% (SON) and −3% (DJF), respectively. Finally, the Copula-based approach is compared to the quantile mapping correction method. The root mean square error (RMSE) and the percentage of the corrected time steps that are closer to the observations are analyzed. The Copula-based correction derived from the mean of the sampled distribution reduces the RMSE significantly, while, e.g., the quantile mapping method results in an increased RMSE for some regions.

Description: Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2737-2754, 2015 Author(s): A. Gelfan, V. A. Semenov, E. Gusev, Y. Motovilov, O. Nasonova, I. Krylenko, and E. Kovalev An approach is proposed to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty originating from internal atmospheric variability. The latter is one of three major factors contributing to uncertainty of simulated climate change projections (along with so-called "forcing" and "climate model" uncertainties). Importantly, the role of internal atmospheric variability is most visible over spatio-temporal scales of water management in large river basins. Internal atmospheric variability is represented by large ensemble simulations (45 members) with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model. Ensemble simulations are performed using identical prescribed lower boundary conditions (observed sea surface temperature, SST, and sea ice concentration, SIC, for 1979–2012) and constant external forcing parameters but different initial conditions of the atmosphere. The ensemble of bias-corrected ECHAM5 outputs and ensemble averaged ECHAM5 output are used as a distributed input for the ECOMAG and SWAP hydrological models. The corresponding ensembles of runoff hydrographs are calculated for two large rivers of the Arctic basin: the Lena and Northern Dvina rivers. A number of runoff statistics including the mean and the standard deviation of annual, monthly and daily runoff, as well as annual runoff trend, are assessed. Uncertainties of runoff statistics caused by internal atmospheric variability are estimated. It is found that uncertainty of the mean and the standard deviation of runoff has a significant seasonal dependence on the maximum during the periods of spring–summer snowmelt and summer–autumn rainfall floods. Noticeable nonlinearity of the hydrological models' results in the ensemble ECHAM5 output is found most strongly expressed for the Northern Dvina River basin. It is shown that the averaging over ensemble members effectively filters the stochastic term related to internal atmospheric variability. Simulated discharge trends are close to normally distributed around the ensemble mean value, which fits well to empirical estimates and, for the Lena River, indicates that a considerable portion of the observed trend can be externally driven.

Description: Building long-term and high spatio-temporal resolution precipitation and air temperature reanalyses by mixing local observations and global atmospheric reanalyses: the ANATEM model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2717-2736, 2015 Author(s): A. Kuentz, T. Mathevet, J. Gailhard, and B. Hingray Efforts to improve the understanding of past climatic or hydrologic variability have received a great deal of attention in various fields of geosciences such as glaciology, dendrochronology, sedimentology and hydrology. Based on different proxies, each research community produces different kinds of climatic or hydrologic reanalyses at different spatio-temporal scales and resolutions. When considering climate or hydrology, many studies have been devoted to characterising variability, trends or breaks using observed time series representing different regions or climates of the world. However, in hydrology, these studies have usually been limited to short temporal scales (mainly a few decades and more rarely a century) because they require observed time series (which suffer from a limited spatio-temporal density). This paper introduces ANATEM, a method that combines local observations and large-scale climatic information (such as the 20CR Reanalysis) to build long-term probabilistic air temperature and precipitation time series with a high spatio-temporal resolution (1 day and a few km 2 ). ANATEM was tested on the reconstruction of air temperature and precipitation time series of 22 watersheds situated in the Durance River basin, in the French Alps. Based on a multi-criteria and multi-scale diagnosis, the results show that ANATEM improves the performance of classical statistical models – especially concerning spatial homogeneity – while providing an original representation of uncertainties which are conditioned by atmospheric circulation patterns. The ANATEM model has been also evaluated for the regional scale against independent long-term time series and was able to capture regional low-frequency variability over more than a century (1883–2010).

Description: Understanding NMR relaxometry of partially water-saturated rocks Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2763-2773, 2015 Author(s): O. Mohnke, R. Jorand, C. Nordlund, and N. Klitzsch Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) relaxometry measurements are commonly used to characterize the storage and transport properties of water-saturated rocks. Estimations of these properties are based on the direct link of the initial NMR signal amplitude to porosity (water content) and of the NMR relaxation time to pore size. Herein, pore shapes are usually assumed to be spherical or cylindrical. However, the NMR response at partial water saturation for natural sediments and rocks may differ strongly from the responses calculated for spherical or cylindrical pores, because these pore shapes do not account for water menisci remaining in the corners of desaturated angular pores. Therefore, we consider a bundle of pores with triangular cross sections. We introduce analytical solutions of the NMR equations at partial saturation of these pores, which account for water menisci of desaturated pores. After developing equations that describe the water distribution inside the pores, we calculate the NMR response at partial saturation for imbibition and drainage based on the deduced water distributions. For this pore model, the NMR amplitudes and NMR relaxation times at partial water saturation strongly depend on pore shape, i.e., arising from the capillary pressure and pore shape-dependent water distribution in desaturated pores with triangular cross sections. Even so, the NMR relaxation time at full saturation only depends on the surface-to-volume ratio of the pore. Moreover, we show the qualitative agreement of the saturation-dependent relaxation-time distributions of our model with those observed for rocks and soils.

Description: Assessment of Halon-1301 as a groundwater age tracer Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2775-2789, 2015 Author(s): M. Beyer, R. van der Raaij, U. Morgenstern, and B. Jackson Groundwater dating is an important tool to assess groundwater resources in regards to their dynamics, i.e. direction and timescale of groundwater flow and recharge, contamination risks and manage remediation. To infer groundwater age information, a combination of different environmental tracers, such as tritium and SF 6 , are commonly used. However, ambiguous age interpretations are often faced, due to a limited set of available tracers and their individual restricted application ranges. For more robust groundwater dating multiple tracers need to be applied complementarily (or other characterisation methods need to be used to complement tracer information). It is important that additional, groundwater age tracers are found to ensure robust groundwater dating in future. We have recently suggested that Halon-1301, a water soluble and entirely anthropogenic gaseous substance, may be a promising candidate, but its behaviour in water and suitability as a groundwater age tracer had not yet been assessed in detail. In this study, we determined Halon-1301 and inferred age information in 17 New Zealand groundwater samples and various modern (river) water samples. The samples were simultaneously analysed for Halon-1301 and SF 6 , which allowed for identification of issues such as contamination of the water with modern air during sampling. All analysed groundwater sites had also been previously dated with tritium, CFC-12, CFC-11 and SF 6 , and exhibited mean residence times ranging from modern (close to 0 years) to over 100 years. The investigated groundwater samples ranged from oxic to highly anoxic. All samples with available CFC data were degraded and/or contaminated in one or both of CFC-11 and CFC-12. This allowed us to make a first attempt of assessing the conservativeness of Halon-1301 in water, in terms of presence of local sources and its sensitivity towards degradation, which could affect the suitability of Halon-1301 as groundwater age tracer. Overall we found Halon-1301 reliably inferred the mean residence time of groundwater recharged between 1980 and 2014. Where direct age comparison could be made 71% of mean age estimates for the studied groundwater sites were in agreement with ages inferred from tritium and SF 6 (within an uncertainty of 1 standard deviation). The remaining (anoxic) sites showed reduced concentrations of Halon-1301 along with even further reduced concentrations of CFCs. The reason(s) for this need to be further assessed, but are likely to be caused by sorption or degradation of the compounds. Despite some groundwater samples showing evidence of contamination from industrial or agricultural sources (inferred by elevated CFC concentrations), no sample showed a significantly elevated concentration of Halon-1301, which suggests no local anthropogenic or geologic sources of Halon-1301 contamination.

Description: Turbidity in the fluvial Gironde Estuary (southwest France) based on 10-year continuous monitoring: sensitivity to hydrological conditions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2805-2819, 2015 Author(s): I. Jalón-Rojas, S. Schmidt, and A. Sottolichio Climate change and human activities impact the volume and timing of freshwater input to estuaries. These modifications in fluvial discharges are expected to influence estuarine suspended sediment dynamics, and in particular the turbidity maximum zone (TMZ). Located in southwest France, the Gironde fluvial-estuarine system has an ideal context to address this issue. It is characterized by a very pronounced TMZ, a decrease in mean annual runoff in the last decade, and it is quite unique in having a long-term and high-frequency monitoring of turbidity. The effect of tide and river flow on turbidity in the fluvial estuary is detailed, focusing on dynamics related to changes in hydrological conditions (river floods, periods of low discharge, interannual changes). Turbidity shows hysteresis loops at different timescales: during river floods and over the transitional period between the installation and expulsion of the TMZ. These hysteresis patterns, that reveal the origin of sediment, locally resuspended or transported from the watershed, may be a tool to evaluate the presence of remained mud. Statistics on turbidity data bound the range of river flow that promotes the upstream migration of TMZ in the fluvial stations. Whereas the duration of the low discharge period mainly determines the TMZ persistence, the freshwater volume during high discharge periods explains the TMZ concentration at the following dry period. The evolution of these two hydrological indicators of TMZ persistence and turbidity level since 1960 confirms the effect of discharge decrease on the intensification of the TMZ in tidal rivers; both provide a tool to evaluate future scenarios.

Description: Including the dynamic relationship between climatic variables and leaf area index in a hydrological model to improve streamflow prediction under a changing climate Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2821-2836, 2015 Author(s): Z. K. Tesemma, Y. Wei, M. C. Peel, and A. W. Western Anthropogenic climate change is projected to enrich the atmosphere with carbon dioxide, change vegetation dynamics and influence the availability of water at the catchment scale. This study combines a nonlinear model for estimating changes in leaf area index (LAI) due to climatic fluctuations with the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model to improve catchment streamflow prediction under a changing climate. The combined model was applied to 13 gauged sub-catchments with different land cover types (crop, pasture and tree) in the Goulburn–Broken catchment, Australia, for the "Millennium Drought" (1997–2009) relative to the period 1983–1995, and for two future periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) and two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5) which were compared with the baseline historical period of 1981–2010. This region was projected to be warmer and mostly drier in the future as predicted by 38 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) runs from 15 global climate models (GCMs) and for two emission scenarios. The results showed that during the Millennium Drought there was about a 29.7–66.3 % reduction in mean annual runoff due to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. When drought-induced changes in LAI were included, smaller reductions in mean annual runoff of between 29.3 and 61.4 % were predicted. The proportional increase in runoff due to modeling LAI was 1.3–10.2 % relative to not including LAI. For projected climate change under the RCP4.5 emission scenario, ignoring the LAI response to changing climate could lead to a further reduction in mean annual runoff of between 2.3 and 27.7 % in the near-term (2021–2050) and 2.3 to 23.1 % later in the century (2071–2100) relative to modeling the dynamic response of LAI to precipitation and temperature changes. Similar results (near-term 2.5–25.9 % and end of century 2.6–24.2 %) were found for climate change under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Incorporating climate-induced changes in LAI in the VIC model reduced the projected declines in streamflow and confirms the importance of including the effects of changes in LAI in future projections of streamflow.

Description: Laser vision: lidar as a transformative tool to advance critical zone science Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2881-2897, 2015 Author(s): A. A. Harpold, J. A. Marshall, S. W. Lyon, T. B. Barnhart, B. A. Fisher, M. Donovan, K. M. Brubaker, C. J. Crosby, N. F. Glenn, C. L. Glennie, P. B. Kirchner, N. Lam, K. D. Mankoff, J. L. McCreight, N. P. Molotch, K. N. Musselman, J. Pelletier, T. Russo, H. Sangireddy, Y. Sjöberg, T. Swetnam, and N. West Observation and quantification of the Earth's surface is undergoing a revolutionary change due to the increased spatial resolution and extent afforded by light detection and ranging (lidar) technology. As a consequence, lidar-derived information has led to fundamental discoveries within the individual disciplines of geomorphology, hydrology, and ecology. These disciplines form the cornerstones of critical zone (CZ) science, where researchers study how interactions among the geosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere shape and maintain the "zone of life", which extends from the top of unweathered bedrock to the top of the vegetation canopy. Fundamental to CZ science is the development of transdisciplinary theories and tools that transcend disciplines and inform other's work, capture new levels of complexity, and create new intellectual outcomes and spaces. Researchers are just beginning to use lidar data sets to answer synergistic, transdisciplinary questions in CZ science, such as how CZ processes co-evolve over long timescales and interact over shorter timescales to create thresholds, shifts in states and fluxes of water, energy, and carbon. The objective of this review is to elucidate the transformative potential of lidar for CZ science to simultaneously allow for quantification of topographic, vegetative, and hydrological processes. A review of 147 peer-reviewed lidar studies highlights a lack of lidar applications for CZ studies as 38 % of the studies were focused in geomorphology, 18 % in hydrology, 32 % in ecology, and the remaining 12 % had an interdisciplinary focus. A handful of exemplar transdisciplinary studies demonstrate lidar data sets that are well-integrated with other observations can lead to fundamental advances in CZ science, such as identification of feedbacks between hydrological and ecological processes over hillslope scales and the synergistic co-evolution of landscape-scale CZ structure due to interactions amongst carbon, energy, and water cycles. We propose that using lidar to its full potential will require numerous advances, including new and more powerful open-source processing tools, exploiting new lidar acquisition technologies, and improved integration with physically based models and complementary in situ and remote-sensing observations. We provide a 5-year vision that advocates for the expanded use of lidar data sets and highlights subsequent potential to advance the state of CZ science.

Description: Technical Note: Semi-automated effective width extraction from time-lapse RGB imagery of a remote, braided Greenlandic river Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2963-2969, 2015 Author(s): C. J. Gleason, L. C. Smith, D. C. Finnegan, A. L. LeWinter, L. H Pitcher, and V. W. Chu River systems in remote environments are often challenging to monitor and understand where traditional gauging apparatus are difficult to install or where safety concerns prohibit field measurements. In such cases, remote sensing, especially terrestrial time-lapse imaging platforms, offer a means to better understand these fluvial systems. One such environment is found at the proglacial Isortoq River in southwestern Greenland, a river with a constantly shifting floodplain and remote Arctic location that make gauging and in situ measurements all but impossible. In order to derive relevant hydraulic parameters for this river, two true color (RGB) cameras were installed in July 2011, and these cameras collected over 10 000 half hourly time-lapse images of the river by September of 2012. Existing approaches for extracting hydraulic parameters from RGB imagery require manual or supervised classification of images into water and non-water areas, a task that was impractical for the volume of data in this study. As such, automated image filters were developed that removed images with environmental obstacles (e.g., shadows, sun glint, snow) from the processing stream. Further image filtering was accomplished via a novel automated histogram similarity filtering process. This similarity filtering allowed successful (mean accuracy 79.6 %) supervised classification of filtered images from training data collected from just 10 % of those images. Effective width, a hydraulic parameter highly correlated with discharge in braided rivers, was extracted from these classified images, producing a hydrograph proxy for the Isortoq River between 2011 and 2012. This hydrograph proxy shows agreement with historic flooding observed in other parts of Greenland in July 2012 and offers promise that the imaging platform and processing methodology presented here will be useful for future monitoring studies of remote rivers.

Description: Projected changes in US rainfall erosivity Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2945-2961, 2015 Author(s): M. Biasutti and R. Seager Downscaled rainfall projections from 21 climate models from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) archive are used to estimate future changes in rainfall erosivity in the continental Unites States. To estimate erosivity from rainfall in the absence of sub-hourly data, we have used both daily rainfall values and the modified Fournier index – which is based on monthly rainfall accumulation – and derived the scaling relationship between rainfall and erosivity from observational estimates of both. The expectation of overall increase in erosivity is confirmed by these calculations, but a quantitative assessment is marred by large uncertainties. Specifically, the uncertainty in the method of estimation of erosivity is more consequential than that deriving from the spread in climate simulations and leads to changes of uncertain sign in parts of the southwest and Texas. We suggest that progress can be made by establishing a more reliable functional relationship between daily rainfall and erosivity.

Description: Long-term monitoring of nitrate transport to drainage from three agricultural clayey till fields Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3475-3488, 2015 Author(s): V. Ernstsen, P. Olsen, and A. E. Rosenbom The application of nitrogen (N) fertilisers to crops grown on tile-drained fields is required to sustain most modern crop production, but it poses a risk to the aquatic environment since tile drains facilitate rapid transport pathways with no significant reduction in nitrate. To maintain the water quality of the aquatic environment and the provision of food from highly efficient agriculture in line with the EU's Water Framework Directive and Nitrates Directive, field-scale knowledge is essential for introducing water management actions on-field or off-field and producing an optimal differentiated N-regulation in future. This study strives to provide such knowledge by evaluating on 11 years of nitrate-N concentration measurements in drainage from three subsurface-drained clayey till fields (1.3–2.3 ha) representing approximately 71 % of the surface sediments in Denmark dominated by clay. The fields differ in their inherent hydrogeological field settings (e.g. soil-type, geology, climate, drainage and groundwater table) and the agricultural management of the fields (e.g. crop type, type of N fertilisers and agricultural practices). The evaluation revealed three types of clayey till fields characterised by: (i) low net precipitation, high concentration of nitrate-N, and short-term low intensity drainage at air temperatures often below 5 °C; (ii) medium net precipitation, medium concentration of nitrate-N, and short-term medium-intensity drainage at air temperatures often above 5 °C; and (iii) high net precipitation, low concentration of nitrate-N and long-term high intensity drainage at air temperatures above 5 °C. For each type, on-field water management actions, such as the selection of crop types and introduction of catch crops, appeared relevant, whereas off-field actions only seemed relevant for the latter two field types given the temperature-dependent reduction potential of nitrate off-field. This initial well-documented field-scale knowledge from fields that are representative of large areas in Denmark is a first step towards establishing a differentiated N-regulation for clayey till areas. Additionally, it provides a unique starting point by identifying important parameters for future mapping of catchment-scale variations in nitrate concentrations and fluxes.

Description: Improving real-time inflow forecasting into hydropower reservoirs through a complementary modelling framework Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3695-3714, 2015 Author(s): A. S. Gragne, A. Sharma, R. Mehrotra, and K. Alfredsen Accuracy of reservoir inflow forecasts is instrumental for maximizing the value of water resources and benefits gained through hydropower generation. Improving hourly reservoir inflow forecasts over a 24 h lead time is considered within the day-ahead (Elspot) market of the Nordic exchange market. A complementary modelling framework presents an approach for improving real-time forecasting without needing to modify the pre-existing forecasting model, but instead formulating an independent additive or complementary model that captures the structure the existing operational model may be missing. We present here the application of this principle for issuing improved hourly inflow forecasts into hydropower reservoirs over extended lead times, and the parameter estimation procedure reformulated to deal with bias, persistence and heteroscedasticity. The procedure presented comprises an error model added on top of an unalterable constant parameter conceptual model. This procedure is applied in the 207 km 2 Krinsvatn catchment in central Norway. The structure of the error model is established based on attributes of the residual time series from the conceptual model. Besides improving forecast skills of operational models, the approach estimates the uncertainty in the complementary model structure and produces probabilistic inflow forecasts that entrain suitable information for reducing uncertainty in the decision-making processes in hydropower systems operation. Deterministic and probabilistic evaluations revealed an overall significant improvement in forecast accuracy for lead times up to 17 h. Evaluation of the percentage of observations bracketed in the forecasted 95 % confidence interval indicated that the degree of success in containing 95 % of the observations varies across seasons and hydrologic years.

Description: High-resolution modelling of interactions between soil moisture and convective development in a mountain enclosed Tibetan Basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4023-4040, 2015 Author(s): T. Gerken, W. Babel, M. Herzog, K. Fuchs, F. Sun, Y. Ma, T. Foken, and H.-F. Graf The Tibetan Plateau plays a significant role in atmospheric circulation and the Asian monsoon system. Turbulent surface fluxes and the evolution of boundary-layer clouds to deep and moist convection provide a feedback system that modifies the plateau's surface energy balance on scales that are currently unresolved in mesoscale models. This work analyses the land surface's role and specifically the influence of soil moisture on the triggering of convection at a cross section of the Nam Co Lake basin, 150 km north of Lhasa using a cloud-resolving atmospheric model with a fully coupled surface. The modelled turbulent fluxes and development of convection compare reasonably well with the observed weather. The simulations span Bowen ratios of 0.5 to 2.5. It is found that convective development is the strongest at intermediate soil moisture. Dry cases with soils close to the permanent wilting point are moisture limited in convective development, while convection in wet soil moisture cases is limited by cloud cover reducing incoming solar radiation and sensible heat fluxes, which has a strong impact on the surface energy balance. This study also shows that local development of convection is an important mechanism for the upward transport of water vapour, which originates from the lake basin that can then be transported to dryer regions of the plateau. Both processes demonstrate the importance of soil moisture and surface–atmosphere interactions on the energy and hydrological cycles of the Tibetan Plateau.

Description: Singularity-sensitive gauge-based radar rainfall adjustment methods for urban hydrological applications Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4001-4021, 2015 Author(s): L.-P. Wang, S. Ochoa-Rodríguez, C. Onof, and P. Willems Gauge-based radar rainfall adjustment techniques have been widely used to improve the applicability of radar rainfall estimates to large-scale hydrological modelling. However, their use for urban hydrological applications is limited as they were mostly developed based upon Gaussian approximations and therefore tend to smooth off so-called "singularities" (features of a non-Gaussian field) that can be observed in the fine-scale rainfall structure. Overlooking the singularities could be critical, given that their distribution is highly consistent with that of local extreme magnitudes. This deficiency may cause large errors in the subsequent urban hydrological modelling. To address this limitation and improve the applicability of adjustment techniques at urban scales, a method is proposed herein which incorporates a local singularity analysis into existing adjustment techniques and allows the preservation of the singularity structures throughout the adjustment process. In this paper the proposed singularity analysis is incorporated into the Bayesian merging technique and the performance of the resulting singularity-sensitive method is compared with that of the original Bayesian (non singularity-sensitive) technique and the commonly used mean field bias adjustment. This test is conducted using as case study four storm events observed in the Portobello catchment (53 km 2 ) (Edinburgh, UK) during 2011 and for which radar estimates, dense rain gauge and sewer flow records, as well as a recently calibrated urban drainage model were available. The results suggest that, in general, the proposed singularity-sensitive method can effectively preserve the non-normality in local rainfall structure, while retaining the ability of the original adjustment techniques to generate nearly unbiased estimates. Moreover, the ability of the singularity-sensitive technique to preserve the non-normality in rainfall estimates often leads to better reproduction of the urban drainage system's dynamics, particularly of peak runoff flows.

Description: Effects of hydrologic conditions on SWAT model performance and parameter sensitivity for a small, mixed land use catchment in New Zealand Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4127-4147, 2015 Author(s): W. Me, J. M. Abell, and D. P. Hamilton The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was configured for the Puarenga Stream catchment (77 km 2 ), Rotorua, New Zealand. The catchment land use is mostly plantation forest, some of which is spray-irrigated with treated wastewater. A Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) procedure was used to auto-calibrate unknown parameter values in the SWAT model. Model validation was performed using two data sets: (1) monthly instantaneous measurements of suspended sediment (SS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) concentrations; and (2) high-frequency (1–2 h) data measured during rainfall events. Monthly instantaneous TP and TN concentrations were generally not reproduced well (24 % bias for TP, 27 % bias for TN, and R 2 〈 0.1, NSE 〈 0 for both TP and TN), in contrast to SS concentrations ( 〈 1 % bias; R 2 and NSE both 〉 0.75) during model validation. Comparison of simulated daily mean SS, TP and TN concentrations with daily mean discharge-weighted high-frequency measurements during storm events indicated that model predictions during the high rainfall period considerably underestimated concentrations of SS (44 % bias) and TP (70 % bias), while TN concentrations were comparable ( 〈 1 % bias; R 2 and NSE both ~ 0.5). This comparison highlighted the potential for model error associated with quick flow fluxes in flashy lower-order streams to be underestimated compared with low-frequency (e.g. monthly) measurements derived predominantly from base flow measurements. To address this, we recommend that high-frequency, event-based monitoring data are used to support calibration and validation. Simulated discharge, SS, TP and TN loads were partitioned into two components (base flow and quick flow) based on hydrograph separation. A manual procedure (one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis) was used to quantify parameter sensitivity for the two hydrologically separated regimes. Several SWAT parameters were found to have different sensitivities between base flow and quick flow. Parameters relating to main channel processes were more sensitive for the base flow estimates, while those relating to overland processes were more sensitive for the quick flow estimates. This study has important implications for identifying uncertainties in parameter sensitivity and performance of hydrological models applied to catchments with large fluctuations in stream flow and in cases where models are used to examine scenarios that involve substantial changes to the existing flow regime.

Description: Reconstruction of flood events based on documentary data and transnational flood risk analysis of the Upper Rhine and its French and German tributaries since AD 1480 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4149-4164, 2015 Author(s): I. Himmelsbach, R. Glaser, J. Schoenbein, D. Riemann, and B. Martin This paper presents the long-term analysis of flood occurrence along the southern part of the Upper Rhine River system and of 14 of its tributaries in France and Germany covering the period starting from 1480 BC. Special focus is given on the temporal and spatial variations of flood events and their underlying meteorological causes over time. Examples are presented of how long-term information about flood events and knowledge about the historical aspect of flood protection in a given area can help to improve the understanding of risk analysis and therefor transnational risk management. Within this context, special focus is given to flood vulnerability while comparing selected historical and modern extreme events, establishing a common evaluation scheme. The transnational aspect becomes especially evident analyzing the tributaries: on this scale, flood protection developed impressively different on the French and German sides. We argue that comparing high technological standards of flood protection, which were initiated by the dukes of Baden on the German side starting in the early 19th century, misled people to the common belief that the mechanical means of flood protection like dams and barrages can guarantee the security from floods and their impacts. This lead to widespread settlements and the establishment of infrastructure as well as modern industries in potentially unsafe areas until today. The legal status in Alsace on the French side of the Rhine did not allow for continuous flood protection measurements, leading to a constant – and probably at last annoying – reminder that the floodplains are a potentially unsafe place to be. From a modern perspective of flood risk management, this leads to a significant lower aggregation of value in the floodplains of the small rivers in Alsace compared to those on the Baden side – an interesting fact – especially if the modern European Flood directive is taken into account.

Description: Understanding runoff processes in a semi-arid environment through isotope and hydrochemical hydrograph separations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4183-4199, 2015 Author(s): V. V. Camacho Suarez, A. M. L. Saraiva Okello, J. W. Wenninger, and S. Uhlenbrook The understanding of runoff generation mechanisms is crucial for the sustainable management of river basins such as the allocation of water resources or the prediction of floods and droughts. However, identifying the mechanisms of runoff generation has been a challenging task, even more so in arid and semi-arid areas where high rainfall and streamflow variability, high evaporation rates, and deep groundwater reservoirs may increase the complexity of hydrological process dynamics. Isotope and hydrochemical tracers have proven to be useful in identifying runoff components and their characteristics. Moreover, although widely used in humid temperate regions, isotope hydrograph separations have not been studied in detail in arid and semi-arid areas. Thus the purpose of this study is to determine whether isotope hydrograph separations are suitable for the quantification and characterization of runoff components in a semi-arid catchment considering the hydrological complexities of these regions. Through a hydrochemical characterization of the surface water and groundwater sources of the catchment and two- and three-component hydrograph separations, runoff components of the Kaap catchment in South Africa were quantified using both isotope and hydrochemical tracers. No major disadvantages while using isotope tracers over hydrochemical tracers were found. Hydrograph separation results showed that runoff in the Kaap catchment is mainly generated by groundwater sources. Two-component hydrograph separations revealed groundwater contributions of between 64 and 98 % of total runoff. By means of three-component hydrograph separations, runoff components were further separated into direct runoff, shallow and deep groundwater components. Direct runoff, defined as the direct precipitation on the stream channel and overland flow, contributed up to 41 % of total runoff during wet catchment conditions. Shallow groundwater defined as the soil water and near-surface water component (and potentially surface runoff) contributed up to 45 % of total runoff, and deep groundwater contributed up to 84 % of total runoff. A strong correlation for the four studied events was found between the antecedent precipitation conditions and direct runoff. These findings suggest that direct runoff is enhanced by wetter conditions in the catchment that trigger saturation excess overland flow as observed in the hydrograph separations.

Description: Multidecadal change in streamflow associated with anthropogenic disturbances in the tropical Andes Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4201-4213, 2015 Author(s): A. Molina, V. Vanacker, E. Brisson, D. Mora, and V. Balthazar Andean headwater catchments are an important source of freshwater for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes in these catchments. In this paper, we assess change in streamflow based on long time series of hydrometeorological data (1974–2008) and land cover reconstructions (1963–2009) in the Pangor catchment (282 km 2 ) located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished during the period 1963–2009: (1) expansion of agricultural land by an area equal to 14 % of the catchment area (or 39 km 2 ) in 46 years' time, (2) deforestation of native forests by 11 % (or −31 km 2 ) corresponding to a mean rate of 67 ha yr −1 , and (3) afforestation with exotic species in recent years by about 5 % (or 15 km 2 ). Over the time period 1963–2009, about 50 % of the 64 km 2 of native forests was cleared and converted to agricultural land. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow, which exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term change in precipitation but very likely result from anthropogenic disturbances associated with land cover change.

Description: Effects of changes in moisture source and the upstream rainout on stable isotopes in precipitation – a case study in Nanjing, eastern China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4293-4306, 2015 Author(s): Y. Tang, H. Pang, W. Zhang, Y. Li, S. Wu, and S. Hou In the Asian monsoon region, variations in the stable isotopic composition of speleothems have often been attributed to the "amount effect". However, an increasing number of studies suggest that the "amount effect" in local precipitation is insignificant or even non-existent. To explore this issue further, we examined the variability of daily stable isotopic composition (δ 18 O) in precipitation from September 2011 to November 2014 in Nanjing, eastern China. We found that intra-seasonal variations of δ 18 O during summer were not significantly correlated with local rainfall amount but could be linked to changes in the moisture source location and rainout processes in the source regions. Our findings suggest that the stable isotopes in summer precipitation could signal the location shift of precipitation source regions in the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the course of the monsoon season. As a result, changes in moisture source location and upstream rainout effect should be taken into account when interpreting the stable isotopic composition of speleothems in the Asian monsoon region. In addition, the temperature effect on isotopic variations in non-monsoonal precipitation should also be considered because precipitation in the non-monsoon season accounts for about half of its annual precipitation.

Description: Impacts of grid resolution on surface energy fluxes simulated with an integrated surface-groundwater flow model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4317-4326, 2015 Author(s): P. Shrestha, M. Sulis, C. Simmer, and S. Kollet The hydrological component of the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TerrSysMP), which includes integrated surface-groundwater flow, was used to investigate the grid resolution dependence of simulated soil moisture, soil temperature, and surface energy fluxes over a sub-catchment of the Rur, Germany. The investigation was motivated by the recent developments of new earth system models, which include 3-D physically based groundwater models for the coupling of land–atmosphere interaction and subsurface hydrodynamics. Our findings suggest that for grid resolutions between 100 and 1000 m, the non-local controls of soil moisture are highly grid resolution dependent. Local vegetation, however, strongly modulates the scaling behavior, especially for surface fluxes and soil temperature, which depends on the radiative transfer property of the canopy. This study also shows that for grid resolutions above a few 100 m, the variation of spatial and temporal patterns of sensible and latent heat fluxes may significantly affect the resulting atmospheric mesoscale circulation and boundary layer evolution in coupled runs.

Description: Historical changes in frequency of extreme floods in Prague Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4307-4315, 2015 Author(s): L. Elleder This study presents a flood frequency analysis for the Vltava River catchment using a major profile in Prague. The estimates of peak discharges for the pre-instrumental period of 1118–1824 based on documentary sources were carried out using different approaches. 187 flood peak discharges derived for the pre-instrumental period augmented 150 records for the instrumental period of 1825–2013. Flood selection was based on Q 10 criteria. Six flood-rich periods in total were identified for 1118–2013. Results of this study correspond with similar studies published earlier for some central European catchments, except for the period around 1750. Presented results indicate that the territory of the present Czech Republic might have experienced extreme floods in the past, comparable – with regard to peak discharge (higher than or equal to Q 10 ) and frequency – to the flood events recorded recently.

Description: Vulnerability of groundwater resources to interaction with river water in a boreal catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3015-3032, 2015 Author(s): A. Rautio, A.-L. Kivimäki, K. Korkka-Niemi, M. Nygård, V.-P. Salonen, K. Lahti, and H. Vahtera A low-altitude aerial infrared (AIR) survey was conducted to identify hydraulic connections between aquifers and rivers and to map spatial surface temperature patterns along boreal rivers. In addition, the stable isotopic compositions (δ 18 O, δD), dissolved silica (DSi) concentrations and electrical conductivity of water in combination with AIR data were used as tracers to verify the observed groundwater discharge into the river system in a boreal catchment. Based on low temperature anomalies in the AIR survey, around 370 groundwater discharge sites were located along the main river channel and its tributaries (203 km altogether). On the basis of the AIR survey, the longitudinal temperature patterns of the studied rivers differed noticeably. The stable isotopes and DSi composition revealed major differences between the studied rivers. The groundwater discharge locations identified in the proximity of 12 municipal water intake plants during the low-flow seasons should be considered as potential risk areas for water intake plants during flood periods (groundwater quality deterioration due to bank infiltration), and should be taken under consideration in river basin management under changing climatic situations.

Description: Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering: evaluating the effect of ensemble size and localization on filter performance Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2999-3013, 2015 Author(s): J. Rasmussen, H. Madsen, K. H. Jensen, and J. C. Refsgaard Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members, an adaptive localization method is used. The performance of the adaptive localization method is compared to the more common distance-based localization. The relationship between filter performance in terms of hydraulic head and discharge error and the number of ensemble members is investigated for varying numbers and spatial distributions of groundwater head observations and with or without discharge assimilation and parameter estimation. The study shows that (1) more ensemble members are needed when fewer groundwater head observations are assimilated, and (2) assimilating discharge observations and estimating parameters requires a much larger ensemble size than just assimilating groundwater head observations. However, the required ensemble size can be greatly reduced with the use of adaptive localization, which by far outperforms distance-based localization. The study is conducted using synthetic data only.

Description: Water savings potentials of irrigation systems: global simulation of processes and linkages Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3073-3091, 2015 Author(s): J. Jägermeyr, D. Gerten, J. Heinke, S. Schaphoff, M. Kummu, and W. Lucht Global agricultural production is heavily sustained by irrigation, but irrigation system efficiencies are often surprisingly low. However, our knowledge of irrigation efficiencies is mostly confined to rough indicative estimates for countries or regions that do not account for spatiotemporal heterogeneity due to climate and other biophysical dependencies. To allow for refined estimates of global agricultural water use, and of water saving and water productivity potentials constrained by biophysical processes and also non-trivial downstream effects, we incorporated a process-based representation of the three major irrigation systems (surface, sprinkler, and drip) into a bio- and agrosphere model, LPJmL. Based on this enhanced model we provide a gridded world map of irrigation efficiencies that are calculated in direct linkage to differences in system types, crop types, climatic and hydrologic conditions, and overall crop management. We find pronounced regional patterns in beneficial irrigation efficiency (a refined irrigation efficiency indicator accounting for crop-productive water consumption only), due to differences in these features, with the lowest values ( 〈 30 %) in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and the highest values (〉 60 %) in Europe and North America. We arrive at an estimate of global irrigation water withdrawal of 2469 km 3 (2004–2009 average); irrigation water consumption is calculated to be 1257 km 3 , of which 608 km 3 are non-beneficially consumed, i.e., lost through evaporation, interception, and conveyance. Replacing surface systems by sprinkler or drip systems could, on average across the world's river basins, reduce the non-beneficial consumption at river basin level by 54 and 76 %, respectively, while maintaining the current level of crop yields. Accordingly, crop water productivity would increase by 9 and 15 %, respectively, and by much more in specific regions such as in the Indus basin. This study significantly advances the global quantification of irrigation systems while providing a framework for assessing potential future transitions in these systems. In this paper, presented opportunities associated with irrigation improvements are significant and suggest that they should be considered an important means on the way to sustainable food security.

Description: A continuous rainfall model based on vine copulas Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2685-2699, 2015 Author(s): H. Vernieuwe, S. Vandenberghe, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest Copulas have already proven their flexibility in rainfall modelling. Yet, their use is generally restricted to the description of bivariate dependence. Recently, vine copulas have been introduced, allowing multi-dimensional dependence structures to be described on the basis of a stage by stage mixing of 2-dimensional copulas. This paper explores the use of such vine copulas in order to incorporate all relevant dependences between the storm variables of interest. On the basis of such fitted vine copulas, an external storm structure is modelled. An internal storm structure is superimposed based on Huff curves, such that a continuous time series of rainfall is generated. The performance of the rainfall model is evaluated through a statistical comparison between an ensemble of synthetical rainfall series and the observed rainfall series and through the comparison of the annual maxima.

Description: KULTURisk regional risk assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards – Part 2: Application to the Zurich case study Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1561-1576, 2015 Author(s): P. Ronco, M. Bullo, S. Torresan, A. Critto, R. Olschewski, M. Zappa, and A. Marcomini The aim of this paper is the application of the KULTURisk regional risk assessment (KR-RRA) methodology, presented in the companion paper (Part 1, Ronco et al., 2014), to the Sihl River basin, in northern Switzerland. Flood-related risks have been assessed for different receptors lying on the Sihl River valley including Zurich, which represents a typical case of river flooding in an urban area, by calibrating the methodology to the site-specific context and features. Risk maps and statistics have been developed using a 300-year return period scenario for six relevant targets exposed to flood risk: people; economic activities: buildings, infrastructure and agriculture; natural and semi-natural systems; and cultural heritage. Finally, the total risk index map has been produced to visualize the spatial pattern of flood risk within the target area and, therefore, to identify and rank areas and hotspots at risk by means of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tools. Through a tailored participatory approach, risk maps supplement the consideration of technical experts with the (essential) point of view of relevant stakeholders for the appraisal of the specific scores weighting for the different receptor-relative risks. The total risk maps obtained for the Sihl River case study are associated with the lower classes of risk. In general, higher (relative) risk scores are spatially concentrated in the deeply urbanized city centre and areas that lie just above to river course. Here, predicted injuries and potential fatalities are mainly due to high population density and to the presence of vulnerable people; flooded buildings are mainly classified as continuous and discontinuous urban fabric; flooded roads, pathways and railways, most of them in regards to the Zurich central station (Hauptbahnhof) are at high risk of inundation, causing severe indirect damage. Moreover, the risk pattern for agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems and cultural heritage is relatively less important mainly because the scattered presence of these assets. Finally, the application of the KR-RRA methodology to the Sihl River case study, as well as to several other sites across Europe (not presented here), has demonstrated its flexibility and the possible adaptation of it to different geographical and socioeconomic contexts, depending on data availability and particulars of the sites, and for other (hazard) scenarios.

Description: Rainfall erosivity estimation based on rainfall data collected over a range of temporal resolutions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4113-4126, 2015 Author(s): S. Yin, Y. Xie, B. Liu, and M. A. Nearing Rainfall erosivity is the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion by water. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event (energy-intensity values – EI 30 ) is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 min intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable in many areas of the world. The purpose of this study was to develop models based on commonly available rainfall data resolutions, such as daily or monthly totals, to calculate rainfall erosivity. Eleven stations with 1 min temporal resolution rainfall data collected from 1961 through 2000 in the eastern half of China were used to develop and calibrate 21 models. Seven independent stations, also with 1 min data, were utilized to validate those models, together with 20 previously published equations. The models in this study performed better or similar to models from previous research to estimate rainfall erosivity for these data. Using symmetric mean absolute percentage errors and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients, we can recommend 17 of the new models that had model efficiencies ≥ 0.59. The best prediction capabilities resulted from using the finest resolution rainfall data as inputs at a given erosivity timescale and by summing results from equations for finer erosivity timescales where possible. Results from this study provide a number of options for developing erosivity maps using coarse resolution rainfall data.

Description: Correction of real-time satellite precipitation with satellite soil moisture observations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4275-4291, 2015 Author(s): W. Zhan, M. Pan, N. Wanders, and E. F. Wood Rainfall and soil moisture are two key elements in modeling the interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere. Accurate and high-resolution real-time precipitation is crucial for monitoring and predicting the onset of floods, and allows for alert and warning before the impact becomes a disaster. Assimilation of remote sensing data into a flood-forecasting model has the potential to improve monitoring accuracy. Space-borne microwave observations are especially interesting because of their sensitivity to surface soil moisture and its change. In this study, we assimilate satellite soil moisture retrievals using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, and a dynamic assimilation technique, a particle filter, to adjust the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) real-time precipitation estimates. We compare updated precipitation with real-time precipitation before and after adjustment and with NLDAS gauge-radar observations. Results show that satellite soil moisture retrievals provide additional information by correcting errors in rainfall bias. The assimilation is most effective in the correction of medium rainfall under dry to normal surface conditions, while limited/negative improvement is seen over wet/saturated surfaces. On the other hand, high-frequency noises in satellite soil moisture impact the assimilation by increasing rainfall frequency. The noise causes larger uncertainty in the false-alarmed rainfall over wet regions. A threshold of 2 mm day −1 soil moisture change is identified and applied to the assimilation, which masked out most of the noise.

Description: Groundwater-dependent ecosystems: recent insights from satellite and field-based studies Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4229-4256, 2015 Author(s): D. Eamus, S. Zolfaghar, R. Villalobos-Vega, J. Cleverly, and A. Huete Groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) are at risk globally due to unsustainable levels of groundwater extraction, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In this review, we examine recent developments in the ecohydrology of GDEs with a focus on three knowledge gaps: (1) how do we locate GDEs, (2) how much water is transpired from shallow aquifers by GDEs and (3) what are the responses of GDEs to excessive groundwater extraction? The answers to these questions will determine water allocations that are required to sustain functioning of GDEs and to guide regulations on groundwater extraction to avoid negative impacts on GDEs. We discuss three methods for identifying GDEs: (1) techniques relying on remotely sensed information; (2) fluctuations in depth-to-groundwater that are associated with diurnal variations in transpiration; and (3) stable isotope analysis of water sources in the transpiration stream. We then discuss several methods for estimating rates of GW use, including direct measurement using sapflux or eddy covariance technologies, estimation of a climate wetness index within a Budyko framework, spatial distribution of evapotranspiration (ET) using remote sensing, groundwater modelling and stable isotopes. Remote sensing methods often rely on direct measurements to calibrate the relationship between vegetation indices and ET. ET from GDEs is also determined using hydrologic models of varying complexity, from the White method to fully coupled, variable saturation models. Combinations of methods are typically employed to obtain clearer insight into the components of groundwater discharge in GDEs, such as the proportional importance of transpiration versus evaporation (e.g. using stable isotopes) or from groundwater versus rainwater sources. Groundwater extraction can have severe consequences for the structure and function of GDEs. In the most extreme cases, phreatophytes experience crown dieback and death following groundwater drawdown. We provide a brief review of two case studies of the impacts of GW extraction and then provide an ecosystem-scale, multiple trait, integrated metric of the impact of differences in groundwater depth on the structure and function of eucalypt forests growing along a natural gradient in depth-to-groundwater. We conclude with a discussion of a depth-to-groundwater threshold in this mesic GDE. Beyond this threshold, significant changes occur in ecosystem structure and function.

Description: High-quality observation of surface imperviousness for urban runoff modelling using UAV imagery Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4215-4228, 2015 Author(s): P. Tokarczyk, J. P. Leitao, J. Rieckermann, K. Schindler, and F. Blumensaat Modelling rainfall–runoff in urban areas is increasingly applied to support flood risk assessment, particularly against the background of a changing climate and an increasing urbanization. These models typically rely on high-quality data for rainfall and surface characteristics of the catchment area as model input. While recent research in urban drainage has been focusing on providing spatially detailed rainfall data, the technological advances in remote sensing that ease the acquisition of detailed land-use information are less prominently discussed within the community. The relevance of such methods increases as in many parts of the globe, accurate land-use information is generally lacking, because detailed image data are often unavailable. Modern unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) allow one to acquire high-resolution images on a local level at comparably lower cost, performing on-demand repetitive measurements and obtaining a degree of detail tailored for the purpose of the study. In this study, we investigate for the first time the possibility of deriving high-resolution imperviousness maps for urban areas from UAV imagery and of using this information as input for urban drainage models. To do so, an automatic processing pipeline with a modern classification method is proposed and evaluated in a state-of-the-art urban drainage modelling exercise. In a real-life case study (Lucerne, Switzerland), we compare imperviousness maps generated using a fixed-wing consumer micro-UAV and standard large-format aerial images acquired by the Swiss national mapping agency ( swisstopo ). After assessing their overall accuracy, we perform an end-to-end comparison, in which they are used as an input for an urban drainage model. Then, we evaluate the influence which different image data sources and their processing methods have on hydrological and hydraulic model performance. We analyse the surface runoff of the 307 individual subcatchments regarding relevant attributes, such as peak runoff and runoff volume. Finally, we evaluate the model's channel flow prediction performance through a cross-comparison with reference flow measured at the catchment outlet. We show that imperviousness maps generated from UAV images processed with modern classification methods achieve an accuracy comparable to standard, off-the-shelf aerial imagery. In the examined case study, we find that the different imperviousness maps only have a limited influence on predicted surface runoff and pipe flows, when traditional workflows are used. We expect that they will have a substantial influence when more detailed modelling approaches are employed to characterize land use and to predict surface runoff. We conclude that UAV imagery represents a valuable alternative data source for urban drainage model applications due to the possibility of flexibly acquiring up-to-date aerial images at a quality compared with off-the-shelf image products and a competitive price at the same time. We believe that in the future, urban drainage models representing a higher degree of spatial detail will fully benefit from the strengths of UAV imagery.

Description: Coupled modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4165-4181, 2015 Author(s): H. Hashemi, C. B. Uvo, and R. Berndtsson The effect of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a modeling approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010–2030 and 2030–2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region using the delta-change method. A conceptual rainfall–runoff model (Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002–2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall–runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated groundwater flow and recharge model (MODFLOW) to simulate future recharge and groundwater hydraulic heads. As a result of the rainfall–runoff modeling, under the B1 scenario the number of floods is projected to slightly increase in the area. This in turn calls for proper management, as this is the only source of fresh water supply in the studied region. The results of the groundwater recharge modeling showed no significant difference between present and future recharge for all scenarios. Owing to that, four abstraction and recharge scenarios were assumed to simulate the groundwater level and recharge amount in the studied aquifer. The results showed that the abstraction scenarios have the most substantial effect on the groundwater level and the continuation of current pumping rate would lead to a groundwater decline by 18 m up to 2050.

Description: Reconstructing the natural hydrology of the San Francisco Bay–Delta watershed Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4257-4274, 2015 Author(s): P. Fox, P. H. Hutton, D. J. Howes, A. J. Draper, and L. Sears We evaluated the impact of landscape changes on the amount of delta outflow reaching San Francisco Bay. The natural landscape was reconstructed and water balances were used to estimate the long-term annual average delta outflow that would have occurred under natural landscape conditions if the climate from 1922 to 2009 were to repeat itself. These outflows are referred to as natural delta outflows and are the first published estimate of natural delta outflow. These natural delta outflows were then compared with current delta outflows for the same climate and existing landscape, including its re-engineered system of reservoirs, canals, aqueducts, and pumping plants. This analysis shows that the long-term, annual average delta outflow under current conditions is consistent with outflow under natural landscape conditions. The amount of water currently used by farms, cities, and others is about equal to the amount of water formerly used by native vegetation. Development of water resources in California's Central Valley transferred water formerly used by native vegetation to new beneficial uses without substantially reducing the long-term annual average supply to the San Francisco Bay–Delta estuary. Based on this finding, it is unlikely that observed declines in native freshwater aquatic species are the result of annual average delta outflow reductions.

Description: Green and blue water footprint reduction in irrigated agriculture: effect of irrigation techniques, irrigation strategies and mulching Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4877-4891, 2015 Author(s): A. D. Chukalla, M. S. Krol, and A. Y. Hoekstra Consumptive water footprint (WF) reduction in irrigated crop production is essential given the increasing competition for freshwater. This study explores the effect of three management practices on the soil water balance and plant growth, specifically on evapotranspiration (ET) and yield ( Y ) and thus the consumptive WF of crops (ET / Y ). The management practices are four irrigation techniques (furrow, sprinkler, drip and subsurface drip (SSD)), four irrigation strategies (full (FI), deficit (DI), supplementary (SI) and no irrigation), and three mulching practices (no mulching, organic (OML) and synthetic (SML) mulching). Various cases were considered: arid, semi-arid, sub-humid and humid environments in Israel, Spain, Italy and the UK, respectively; wet, normal and dry years; three soil types (sand, sandy loam and silty clay loam); and three crops (maize, potato and tomato). The AquaCrop model and the global WF accounting standard were used to relate the management practices to effects on ET, Y and WF. For each management practice, the associated green, blue and total consumptive WF were compared to the reference case (furrow irrigation, full irrigation, no mulching). The average reduction in the consumptive WF is 8–10 % if we change from the reference to drip or SSD, 13 % when changing to OML, 17–18 % when moving to drip or SSD in combination with OML, and 28 % for drip or SSD in combination with SML. All before-mentioned reductions increase by one or a few per cent when moving from full to deficit irrigation. Reduction in overall consumptive WF always goes together with an increasing ratio of green to blue WF. The WF of growing a crop for a particular environment is smallest under DI, followed by FI, SI and rain-fed. Growing crops with sprinkler irrigation has the largest consumptive WF, followed by furrow, drip and SSD. Furrow irrigation has a smaller consumptive WF compared with sprinkler, even though the classical measure of "irrigation efficiency" for furrow is lower.

Description: Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1615-1639, 2015 Author(s): M. C. Peel, R. Srikanthan, T. A. McMahon, and D. J. Karoly Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between global climate models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) data sets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty for monthly precipitation and temperature projections and to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. We adopt stochastic replicates of available GCM runs to approximate within-GCM uncertainty because large ensembles, hundreds of runs, for a given GCM and scenario are unavailable, other than the Climate prediction .net data set for the Hadley Centre GCM. To date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2015) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from CMIP3 for use in this paper. Here we present within- and between-GCM uncertainty results in mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual runoff (MAR), the standard deviation of annual precipitation (SDP), standard deviation of runoff (SDR) and reservoir yield for five CMIP3 GCMs at 17 worldwide catchments. Based on 100 stochastic replicates of each GCM run at each catchment, within-GCM uncertainty was assessed in relative form as the standard deviation expressed as a percentage of the mean of the 100 replicate values of each variable. The average relative within-GCM uncertainties from the 17 catchments and 5 GCMs for 2015–2044 (A1B) were MAP 4.2%, SDP 14.2%, MAT 0.7%, MAR 10.1% and SDR 17.6%. The Gould–Dincer Gamma (G-DG) procedure was applied to each annual runoff time series for hypothetical reservoir capacities of 1 × MAR and 3 × MAR and the average uncertainties in reservoir yield due to within-GCM uncertainty from the 17 catchments and 5 GCMs were 25.1% (1 × MAR) and 11.9% (3 × MAR). Our approximation of within-GCM uncertainty is expected to be an underestimate due to not replicating the GCM trend. However, our results indicate that within-GCM uncertainty is important when interpreting climate change impact assessments. Approximately 95% of values of MAP, SDP, MAT, MAR, SDR and reservoir yield from 1 × MAR or 3 × MAR capacity reservoirs are expected to fall within twice their respective relative uncertainty (standard deviation/mean). Within-GCM uncertainty has significant implications for interpreting climate change impact assessments that report future changes within our range of uncertainty for a given variable – these projected changes may be due solely to within-GCM uncertainty. Since within-GCM variability is amplified from precipitation to runoff and then to reservoir yield, climate change impact assessments that do not take into account within-GCM uncertainty risk providing water resources management decision makers with a sense of certainty that is unjustified.

Description: Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in the Mancha Oriental system (Spain) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1677-1693, 2015 Author(s): M. Pulido-Velazquez, S. Peña-Haro, A. García-Prats, A. F. Mocholi-Almudever, L. Henriquez-Dole, H. Macian-Sorribes, and A. Lopez-Nicolas Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands, which will alter the hydrologic cycle and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting groundwater recharge and discharge conditions under future climate and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system (MOS), one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, the transformation from dry to irrigated lands during the last decades has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table, with the consequent effect on stream–aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. On the one hand, streamflow depletion is compromising the dependent ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. On the other hand, the intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. In this paper we analyze the potential impacts of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modeling framework that consists in sequentially coupling a watershed agriculturally based hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) with a groundwater flow model developed in MODFLOW, and with a nitrate mass-transport model in MT3DMS. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream–aquifer interaction. SWAT and MODFLOW outputs (nitrate loads from SWAT, groundwater velocity field from MODFLOW) are used as MT3DMS inputs for assessing the fate and transport of nitrate leached from the topsoil. Three climate change scenarios have been considered, corresponding to three different general circulation models (GCMs) for emission scenario A1B that covers the control period, and short-, medium- and long-term future periods. A multi-temporal analysis of LULC change was carried out, helped by the study of historical trends (from remote-sensing images) and key driving forces to explain LULC transitions. Markov chains and European scenarios and projections were used to quantify trends in the future. The cellular automata technique was applied for stochastic modeling future LULC maps. Simulated values of river discharge, crop yields, groundwater levels and nitrate concentrations fit well to the observed ones. The results show the response of groundwater quantity and quality (nitrate pollution) to climate and land use changes, with decreasing groundwater recharge and an increase in nitrate concentrations. The sequential modeling chain has been proven to be a valuable assessment tool for supporting the development of sustainable management strategies.

Description: Uncertainty reduction and parameter estimation of a distributed hydrological model with ground and remote-sensing data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1727-1751, 2015 Author(s): F. Silvestro, S. Gabellani, R. Rudari, F. Delogu, P. Laiolo, and G. Boni During the last decade the opportunity and usefulness of using remote-sensing data in hydrology, hydrometeorology and geomorphology has become even more evident and clear. Satellite-based products often allow for the advantage of observing hydrologic variables in a distributed way, offering a different view with respect to traditional observations that can help with understanding and modeling the hydrological cycle. Moreover, remote-sensing data are fundamental in scarce data environments. The use of satellite-derived digital elevation models (DEMs), which are now globally available at 30 m resolution (e.g., from Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission, SRTM), have become standard practice in hydrologic model implementation, but other types of satellite-derived data are still underutilized. As a consequence there is the need for developing and testing techniques that allow the opportunities given by remote-sensing data to be exploited, parameterizing hydrological models and improving their calibration. In this work, Meteosat Second Generation land-surface temperature (LST) estimates and surface soil moisture (SSM), available from European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) H-SAF, are used together with streamflow observations (S. N.) to calibrate the Continuum hydrological model that computes such state variables in a prognostic mode. The first part of the work aims at proving that satellite observations can be exploited to reduce uncertainties in parameter calibration by reducing the parameter equifinality that can become an issue in forecast mode. In the second part, four parameter estimation strategies are implemented and tested in a comparative mode: (i) a multi-objective approach that includes both satellite and ground observations which is an attempt to use different sources of data to add constraints to the parameters; (ii and iii) two approaches solely based on remotely sensed data that reproduce the case of a scarce data environment where streamflow observation are not available; (iv) a standard calibration based on streamflow observations used as a benchmark for the others. Two Italian catchments are used as a test bed to verify the model capability in reproducing long-term (multi-year) simulations. The results of the analysis evidence that, as a result of the model structure and the nature itself of the catchment hydrologic processes, some model parameters are only weakly dependent on discharge observations, and prove the usefulness of using data from both ground stations and satellites to additionally constrain the parameters in the calibration process and reduce the number of equifinal solutions.

Description: Characteristics and controls of variability in soil moisture and groundwater in a headwater catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1767-1786, 2015 Author(s): H. K. McMillan and M. S. Srinivasan Hydrological processes, including runoff generation, depend on the distribution of water in a catchment, which varies in space and time. This paper presents experimental results from a headwater research catchment in New Zealand, where we made distributed measurements of streamflow, soil moisture and groundwater levels, sampling across a range of aspects, hillslope positions, distances from stream and depths. Our aim was to assess the controls, types and implications of spatial and temporal variability in soil moisture and groundwater tables. We found that temporal variability in soil moisture and water table is strongly controlled by the seasonal cycle in potential evapotranspiration, for both the mean and extremes of their distributions. Groundwater is a larger water storage component than soil moisture, and this general difference increases even more with increasing catchment wetness. The spatial standard deviation of both soil moisture and groundwater is larger in winter than in summer. It peaks during rainfall events due to partial saturation of the catchment, and also rises in spring as different locations dry out at different rates. The most important controls on spatial variability in storage are aspect and distance from the stream. South-facing and near-stream locations have higher water tables and showed soil moisture responses for more events. Typical hydrological models do not explicitly account for aspect, but our results suggest that it is an important factor in hillslope runoff generation. Co-measurement of soil moisture and water table level allowed us to identify relationships between the two. Locations where water tables peaked closer to the surface had consistently wetter soils and higher water tables. These wetter sites were the same across seasons. However, patterns of strong soil moisture responses to summer storms did not correspond to the wetter sites. Total catchment spatial variability is composed of multiple variability sources, and the dominant type is sensitive to those stores that are close to a threshold such as field capacity or saturation. Therefore, we classified spatial variability as "summer mode" or "winter mode". In "summer mode", variability is controlled by shallow processes, e.g. interaction of water with soils and vegetation. In "winter mode", variability is controlled by deeper processes, e.g. groundwater movement and bypass flow. Double streamflow peaks observed during some events show the direct impact of groundwater variability on runoff generation. Our results suggest that emergent catchment behaviour depends on the combination of these multiple, time varying components of storage variability.

Description: Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1827-1847, 2015 Author(s): M. A. Sunyer, Y. Hundecha, D. Lawrence, H. Madsen, P. Willems, M. Martinkova, K. Vormoor, G. Bürger, M. Hanel, J. Kriaučiūnienė, A. Loukas, M. Osuch, and I. Yücel Information on extreme precipitation for future climate is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding. The primary source of information in climate change impact studies is climate model projections. However, due to the coarse resolution and biases of these models, they cannot be directly used in hydrological models. Hence, statistical downscaling is necessary to address climate change impacts at the catchment scale. This study compares eight statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) often used in climate change impact studies. Four methods are based on change factors (CFs), three are bias correction (BC) methods, and one is a perfect prognosis method. The eight methods are used to downscale precipitation output from 15 regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project for 11 catchments in Europe. The overall results point to an increase in extreme precipitation in most catchments in both winter and summer. For individual catchments, the downscaled time series tend to agree on the direction of the change but differ in the magnitude. Differences between the SDMs vary between the catchments and depend on the season analysed. Similarly, general conclusions cannot be drawn regarding the differences between CFs and BC methods. The performance of the BC methods during the control period also depends on the catchment, but in most cases they represent an improvement compared to RCM outputs. Analysis of the variance in the ensemble of RCMs and SDMs indicates that at least 30% and up to approximately half of the total variance is derived from the SDMs. This study illustrates the large variability in the expected changes in extreme precipitation and highlights the need for considering an ensemble of both SDMs and climate models. Recommendations are provided for the selection of the most suitable SDMs to include in the analysis.

Description: Erosion processes in black marl soils at the millimetre scale: preliminary insights from an analogous model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1849-1855, 2015 Author(s): J. Bechet, J. Duc, M. Jaboyedoff, A. Loye, and N. Mathys To investigate the millimetre-scale surface processes caused by natural rainfall, an undisturbed sample of badlands soil (1 m long, 0.5 m wide and 0.15 m thick) was carefully extracted. The sample is composed of black marl soil from a badlands area of the Draix Observatory (SE France). After extraction, the undisturbed sample was placed at the same slope angle (45°) as its original orientation and was then monitored for several processes via a terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) with millimetre-scale accuracy and resolution. This experiment identified several surface processes interpreted as micro-landslides, swelling of the black marl material and lateral expansion that closed desiccation cracks. These micro-processes illustrate the complexity of the surface micro-topography changes that control erosion and infiltration rates over time.

Description: Multi-annual droughts in the English Lowlands: a review of their characteristics and climate drivers in the winter half-year Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2353-2375, 2015 Author(s): C. K. Folland, J. Hannaford, J. P. Bloomfield, M. Kendon, C. Svensson, B. P. Marchant, J. Prior, and E. Wallace The English Lowlands is a relatively dry, densely populated region in the south-east of the UK in which water is used intensively. Consequently, parts of the region are water-stressed and face growing water resource pressures. The region is heavily dependent on groundwater and particularly vulnerable to long, multi-annual droughts primarily associated with dry winters. Despite this vulnerability, the atmospheric drivers of multi-annual droughts in the region are poorly understood, an obstacle to developing appropriate drought management strategies, including monitoring and early warning systems. To advance our understanding, we assess known key climate drivers in the winter half-year (October–March) and their likely relationships with multi-annual droughts in the region. We characterise historic multi-annual drought episodes back to 1910 for the English Lowlands using various meteorological and hydrological data sets. Multi-annual droughts are identified using a gridded precipitation series for the entire region, and refined using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) and Standardized Groundwater level Index (SGI) applied to regional-scale river flow and groundwater time series. We explore linkages between a range of potential climatic driving factors and precipitation, river flow and groundwater level indicators in the English Lowlands for the winter half-year. The drivers or forcings include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST) pattern, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), solar and volcanic forcing and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). As expected, no single driver convincingly explains the occurrence of any multi-annual drought in the historical record. However, we demonstrate, for the first time, an association between La Niña episodes and winter rainfall deficits in some major multi-annual drought episodes in the English Lowlands. We also show significant (albeit relatively weak) links between ENSO and drought indicators applied to river flow and groundwater levels. We also show that some of the other drivers listed above are likely to influence English Lowlands rainfall. We conclude by signposting a direction for this future research effort.

Description: Interacting effects of climate and agriculture on fluvial DOM in temperate and subtropical catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2377-2394, 2015 Author(s): D. Graeber, G. Goyenola, M. Meerhoff, E. Zwirnmann, N. B. Ovesen, M. Glendell, J. Gelbrecht, F. Teixeira de Mello, I. González-Bergonzoni, E. Jeppesen, and B. Kronvang Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is an important factor in aquatic ecosystems, which is involved in a large variety of biogeochemical and ecological processes, and recent literature suggests that it could be strongly affected by agriculture in different climates. Based on novel monitoring techniques, we investigated the interaction of climate and agriculture effects on DOM quantity and quality. To examine this, we took water samples over 2 years in two paired intensive and extensive farming catchments in each of Denmark (temperate climate) and Uruguay (subtropical climate). We measured dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON) concentrations and DOC and DON molecular fractions with size-exclusion chromatography. Moreover, we characterized DOM quality with absorbance and fluorescence measurements, as well as parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC). We also calculated the DOC and DON loads based on daily discharge measurements, as well as measured precipitation and air temperature. The fluvial DOM in the catchments in Uruguay was characterized by higher temporal variability of DOC and DON loads which were clearly to a higher temporal variability of precipitation and a DOM composition with rather plant-like character relative to the Danish catchments. Moreover, we found a consistently higher temporal variability of DOC and DON loads in the intensive farming catchments than in the extensive farming catchments, with highest temporal variability in the Uruguayan intensive farming catchment. Furthermore, the composition of DOM exported from the intensive farming catchments was consistently complex and always related to microbial processing in both Denmark and Uruguay. This was indicated by low C : N ratios, several spectroscopic DOM composition indices and PARAFAC fluorescence components. We propose that the consistent effect of intensive farming on DOM composition and the temporal variability of DOC and DON loads is related to similarities in the management of agriculture, which may have widescale implications for fluvial DOM composition, as well as related ecological processes and biogeochemical cycles.

Description: Assessing the simple dynamical systems approach in a Mediterranean context: application to the Ardèche catchment (France) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2427-2449, 2015 Author(s): M. Adamovic, I. Braud, F. Branger, and J. W. Kirchner This study explores how catchment heterogeneity and variability can be summarized in simplified models, representing the dominant hydrological processes. It focuses on Mediterranean catchments, characterized by heterogeneous geology, pedology and land use, as well as steep topography and a rainfall regime in which summer droughts contrast with high-rainfall periods in autumn. The Ardèche catchment (Southeast France), typical of this environment, is chosen to explore the following questions: (1) can such a Mediterranean catchment be adequately characterized by a simple dynamical systems approach and what are the limits of the method under such conditions? (2) what information about dominant predictors of hydrological variability can be retrieved from this analysis in such catchments? In this work we apply the data-driven approach of Kirchner (2009) to estimate discharge sensitivity functions that summarize the behaviour of four sub-catchments of the Ardèche, using low-vegetation periods (November–March) from 9 years of measurements (2000–2008) from operational networks. The relevance of the inferred sensitivity function is assessed through hydrograph simulations, and through estimating precipitation rates from discharge fluctuations. We find that the discharge sensitivity function is downward-curving in double-logarithmic space, thus allowing further simulation of discharge and non-divergence of the model, only during low-vegetation periods. The analysis is complemented by a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis showing how the parameters summarizing the discharge sensitivity function impact the simulated hydrographs. The resulting discharge simulation results are good for granite catchments, which are likely to be characterized by shallow subsurface flow at the interface between soil and bedrock. The simple dynamical system hypothesis works especially well in wet conditions (peaks and recessions are well modelled). On the other hand, poor model performance is associated with summer and dry periods when evapotranspiration is high and low-flow discharge observations are inaccurate. In the Ardèche catchment, inferred precipitation rates agree well in timing and amount with observed gauging stations and SAFRAN climatic data reanalysis during the low-vegetation periods. The model should further be improved to include a more accurate representation of actual evapotranspiration, but provides a satisfying summary of the catchment functioning during wet and winter periods.

Description: Evaporation in a Mediterranean environment by energy budget and Penman methods, Lake Baratz, Sardinia, Italy Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2451-2468, 2015 Author(s): F. Giadrossich, M. Niedda, D. Cohen, and M. Pirastru In Mediterranean environments, evaporation is a key component of lake water budgets. This applies to Lake Baratz in Sardinia, Italy, a closed lake that almost dried up in 2008 after a succession of years with low seasonal rainfall. We used the energy budget method and Penman's equation to estimate evaporation over Lake Baratz. We measured, using a raft station, water temperature at the surface, at 1, 2, 4, 6 m depth and at the bottom of the lake, as well as air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and net radiation over a period of 3 years. We also compared Penman's equation and the energy budget method in two other climatic zones using published data. Our results indicate that mean yearly evaporation over Lake Baratz was 950 mm. On an annual scale, evaporation estimated by Penman's method omitting heat storage as is usually done was 18% higher than by the energy budget method that included heat storage, with monthly differences ranging between −38 and +60%. Including the heat storage term in Penman's equation changed the monthly values but did not change the yearly value significantly. Solar radiation and heat storage were found to be the most important energy fluxes to and from the lake and had the greatest effect on evaporation rates for the energy budget method. The bias between the two methods has a seasonal cycle due to the storage and release of energy from the lake. Energy advected to and from the lake by precipitation, surface water and ground water had minor effect on evaporation rates. Lake Baratz, like other lakes in a Mediterranean environment, is particularly sensitive to the summer hot and dry climate. In contrast, we found that rates of evaporation estimated from Penman and the energy budget methods over tropical African lakes were nearly constant over the entire year and the difference between the two methods smaller. Difference between the two methods for North American lakes is also smaller probably owing to the ice-cover season and to lower radiation and lower temperatures during summer.

Description: Using high-frequency water quality data to assess sampling strategies for the EU Water Framework Directive Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2491-2504, 2015 Author(s): R. A. Skeffington, S. J. Halliday, A. J. Wade, M. J. Bowes, and M. Loewenthal The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires that the ecological and chemical status of water bodies in Europe should be assessed, and action taken where possible to ensure that at least "good" quality is attained in each case by 2015. This paper is concerned with the accuracy and precision with which chemical status in rivers can be measured given certain sampling strategies, and how this can be improved. High-frequency (hourly) chemical data from four rivers in southern England were subsampled to simulate different sampling strategies for four parameters used for WFD classification: dissolved phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, pH and water temperature. These data sub-sets were then used to calculate the WFD classification for each site. Monthly sampling was less precise than weekly sampling, but the effect on WFD classification depended on the closeness of the range of concentrations to the class boundaries. In some cases, monthly sampling for a year could result in the same water body being assigned to three or four of the WFD classes with 95% confidence, due to random sampling effects, whereas with weekly sampling this was one or two classes for the same cases. In the most extreme case, the same water body could have been assigned to any of the five WFD quality classes. Weekly sampling considerably reduces the uncertainties compared to monthly sampling. The width of the weekly sampled confidence intervals was about 33% that of the monthly for P species and pH, about 50% for dissolved oxygen, and about 67% for water temperature. For water temperature, which is assessed as the 98th percentile in the UK, monthly sampling biases the mean downwards by about 1 °C compared to the true value, due to problems of assessing high percentiles with limited data. Low-frequency measurements will generally be unsuitable for assessing standards expressed as high percentiles. Confining sampling to the working week compared to all 7 days made little difference, but a modest improvement in precision could be obtained by sampling at the same time of day within a 3 h time window, and this is recommended. For parameters with a strong diel variation, such as dissolved oxygen, the value obtained, and thus possibly the WFD classification, can depend markedly on when in the cycle the sample was taken. Specifying this in the sampling regime would be a straightforward way to improve precision, but there needs to be agreement about how best to characterise risk in different types of river. These results suggest that in some cases it will be difficult to assign accurate WFD chemical classes or to detect likely trends using current sampling regimes, even for these largely groundwater-fed rivers. A more critical approach to sampling is needed to ensure that management actions are appropriate and supported by data.