ALBERT

Description: Regional and local patterns in depth to water table, hydrochemistry and peat properties of bogs and their laggs in coastal British Columbia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3421-3435, 2013 Author(s): S. A. Howie and H. J. van Meerveld In restoration planning for damaged raised bogs, the lagg at the bog margin is often not given considerable weight and is sometimes disregarded entirely. However, the lagg is critical for the proper functioning of the bog, as it supports the water mound in the bog. In order to include the lagg in a restoration plan for a raised bog, it is necessary to understand the hydrological characteristics and functions of this rarely studied transition zone. We studied 13 coastal British Columbia (BC) bogs and identified two different gradients in depth to water table, hydrochemistry and peat properties: (1) a local bog expanse–bog margin gradient, and (2) a regional gradient related to climate and proximity to the ocean. Depth to water table generally increased across the transition from bog expanse to bog margin. In the bog expanse, pH was above 4.2 in the Pacific Oceanic wetland region (cooler and wetter climate) and below 4.3 in the Pacific Temperate wetland region (warmer and drier climate). Both pH and pH-corrected electrical conductivity increased significantly across the transition from bog expanse to bog margin, though not in all cases. Na + and Mg 2+ concentrations were generally highest in exposed, oceanic bogs and lower in inland bogs. Ash content in peat samples increased across the bog expanse–bog margin transition, and appears to be a useful abiotic indicator of the location of the bog margin. The observed variation in the hydrological and hydrochemical gradients across the bog expanse–bog margin transition highlights both local and regional diversity of bogs and their associated laggs.

Description: Bayesian networks modelling in support to cross-cutting analysis of water supply and sanitation in developing countries Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3397-3419, 2013 Author(s): C. Dondeynaz, J. López Puga, and C. Carmona Moreno Despite the efforts made towards the Millennium Development Goals targets during the last decade, improved access to water supply or basic sanitation still remains unavailable for millions of people across the world. This paper proposes a set of models that use 25 key variables and country profiles from the WatSan4Dev data set involving water supply and sanitation (Dondeynaz et al., 2012). This paper suggests the use of Bayesian network modelling methods because they are more easily adapted to deal with non-normal distributions, and integrate a qualitative approach for data analysis. They also offer the advantage of integrating preliminary knowledge into the probabilistic models. The statistical performance of the proposed models ranges between 20 and 5% error rates, which are very satisfactory taking into account the strong heterogeneity of variables. Probabilistic scenarios run from the models allow an assessment of the relationships between human development, external support, governance aspects, economic activities and water supply and sanitation (WSS) access. According to models proposed in this paper, gaining a strong poverty reduction will require the WSS access to reach 75–76% through: (1) the management of ongoing urbanisation processes to avoid slums development; and (2) the improvement of health care, for instance for children. Improving governance, such as institutional efficiency, capacities to make and apply rules, or control of corruption is positively associated with WSS sustainable development. The first condition for an increment of the HDP (human development and poverty) remains of course an improvement of the economic conditions with higher household incomes. Moreover, a significant country commitment to the environment, associated with civil society freedom of expression constitutes a favourable setting for sustainable WSS services delivery. Intensive agriculture using irrigation practises also appears as a mean for sustainable WSS thanks to multi-uses and complementarities. With a WSS sector organised at national level, irrigation practices can support the structuring and efficiency of the agriculture sector. It may then induce rural development in areas where WSS access often is set back compared to urban areas 1 . External financial support, called Official Development Assistance (ODA CI), plays a role in WSS improvement but comes last in the sensitivity analyses of models. An overall 47% of the Official Development Assistance goes first to poor countries, and is associated to governance aspects: (1) political stability and (2) country commitment to the environment and civil society degree of freedom. These governance aspects constitute a good framework for aid implementation in recipient countries. Modelling is run with the five groups of countries as defined in Dondeynaz et al. (2012). Models for profile 4 (essential external support) and profile 5 (primary material consumption) are specifically detailed and analysed in this paper. For countries in profile 4, fighting against water scarcity and progressing desertification should be the priority. However, for countries in profile 5, efforts should first concentrate on consolidation of political stability while supporting diversification of the economic activities. Nevertheless, for both profiles, reduction of poverty should remain the first priority as previously indicated. 1 JMP statistics, 2004 http://www.wssinfo.org/data-estimates/table/ , last access: 22 July 2013.

Description: Technical Note: A comparison of model and empirical measures of catchment-scale effective energy and mass transfer Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3389-3395, 2013 Author(s): C. Rasmussen and E. L. Gallo Recent work suggests that a coupled effective energy and mass transfer (EEMT) term, which includes the energy associated with effective precipitation and primary production, may serve as a robust prediction parameter of critical zone structure and function. However, the models used to estimate EEMT have been solely based on long-term climatological data with little validation using direct empirical measures of energy, water, and carbon balances. Here we compare catchment-scale EEMT estimates generated using two distinct approaches: (1) EEMT modeled using the established methodology based on estimates of monthly effective precipitation and net primary production derived from climatological data, and (2) empirical catchment-scale EEMT estimated using data from 86 catchments of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) and MOD17A3 annual net primary production (NPP) product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Results indicated positive and significant linear correspondence ( R 2 = 0.75; P 〈 0.001) between model and empirical measures with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.86 MJ m −2 yr −1 . Modeled EEMT values were consistently greater than empirical measures of EEMT. Empirical catchment estimates of the energy associated with effective precipitation ( E PPT ) were calculated using a mass balance approach that accounts for water losses to quick surface runoff not accounted for in the climatologically modeled E PPT . Similarly, local controls on primary production such as solar radiation and nutrient limitation were not explicitly included in the climatologically based estimates of energy associated with primary production ( E BIO ), whereas these were captured in the remotely sensed MODIS NPP data. These differences likely explain the greater estimate of modeled EEMT relative to the empirical measures. There was significant positive correlation between catchment aridity and the fraction of EEMT partitioned into E BIO ( F BIO ), with an increase in F BIO as a fraction of the total as aridity increases and percentage of catchment woody plant cover decreases. In summary, the data indicated strong correspondence between model and empirical measures of EEMT with limited bias that agree well with other empirical measures of catchment energy and water partitioning and plant cover.

Description: Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice-ocean feedback The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4585-4632, 2013 Author(s): H. Goosse and V. Zunz The large natural variability of the Antarctic sea ice is a key characteristic of the system that might be responsible for the small positive trend in sea ice extent observed since 1979. In order to gain insight in the processes responsible for this variability, we have analysed in a control simulation performed with a coupled climate model a strong positive ice-ocean feedback that amplifies sea ice variations. When sea ice concentration increases in a region, in particular close to the ice edge, the mixed layer depth tends to decrease. This can be caused by a net inflow of ice and thus of freshwater that stabilizes the water column. Another stabilizing mechanism at interannual time scales that appears more widespread in our simulation is associated with the downward salt transport due to the seasonal cycle of ice formation: brine is released in winter when ice is formed and mixed over a deep layer while the freshwater flux caused by ice melting is included in a shallow layer, resulting in a net vertical transport of salt. Because of this stronger stratification due to the presence of sea ice, more heat is stored at depth in the ocean and the vertical oceanic heat flux is reduced, which contributes to maintain a higher ice extent. This positive feedback is not associated with a particular spatial pattern. Consequently, the spatial distribution of the trend in ice concentration is largely imposed by the wind changes that can provide the initial perturbation. A positive freshwater flux could alternatively be the initial trigger but the amplitude of the final response of the sea ice extent is finally set up by the amplification related to ice-ocean feedback. Initial conditions have also an influence as the chance to have a large increase in ice extent is higher if starting from a state characterized by a low value.

Description: Contribution of directly connected and isolated impervious areas to urban drainage network hydrographs Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3473-3483, 2013 Author(s): Y. Seo, N.-J. Choi, and A. R. Schmidt This paper addresses the mass balance error observed in runoff hydrographs in urban watersheds by introducing assumptions regarding the contribution of infiltrated rainfall from pervious areas and isolated impervious area (IIA) to the runoff hydrograph. Rainfall infiltrating into pervious areas has been assumed not to contribute to the runoff hydrograph until Hortonian excess rainfall occurs. However, mass balance analysis in an urban watershed indicates that rainfall infiltrated to pervious areas can contribute directly to the runoff hydrograph, thereby offering an explanation for the long hydrograph tail commonly observed in runoff from urban storm sewers. In this study, a hydrologic analysis based on the width function is introduced, with two types of width functions obtained from both pervious and impervious areas, respectively. The width function can be regarded as the direct interpretation of the network response. These two width functions are derived to obtain distinct response functions for directly connected impervious areas (DCIA), IIA, and pervious areas. The results show significant improvement in the estimation of runoff hydrographs and suggest the need to consider the flow contribution from pervious areas to the runoff hydrograph. It also implies that additional contribution from flow paths through joints and cracks in sewer pipes needs to be taken into account to improve the estimation of runoff hydrographs in urban catchments.

Description: A data set of world-wide glacier length fluctuations The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4775-4811, 2013 Author(s): P. W. Leclercq, J. Oerlemans, H. J. Basagic, I. Bushueva, A. J. Cook, and R. Le Bris Glacier fluctuations contribute to variations in sea level and historical glacier length fluctuations are natural indicators of climate change. To study these subjects, long-term information of glacier change is needed. In this paper we present a~data set of global long-term glacier length fluctuations. The data set is a compilation of available information on changes in glacier length world-wide, including both measured and reconstructed glacier length fluctuations. All 471 length series start before 1950 and cover at least four decades. The longest record starts in 1534, but the majority of time series start after 1850. The number of available records decreases again after 1962. The data set has global coverage including records from all continents. However, the Canadian Arctic is not represented in the data set. The glacier length series show relatively small fluctuations until the mid-19th century followed by a global retreat that was strongest in the first half of the 20th century, although large variability in the length change of the different glaciers is observed. During the 20th century, calving glaciers retreated more than land terminating glaciers, but their relative length change was approximately equal. Besides calving, the glacier slope is the most important glacier property determining length change: steep glaciers have retreated less than glaciers with a gentle slope.

Description: An original interpretation of the wet edge of the surface temperature–albedo space to estimate crop evapotranspiration (SEB-1S), and its validation over an irrigated area in northwestern Mexico Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3623-3637, 2013 Author(s): O. Merlin The space defined by the pair surface temperature ( T ) and surface albedo (α), and the space defined by the pair T and fractional green vegetation cover ( f vg ) have been extensively used to estimate evaporative fraction (EF) from solar/thermal remote sensing data. In both space-based approaches, evapotranspiration (ET) is estimated as remotely sensed EF times the available energy. For a given data point in the T -α space or in the T - f vg space, EF is derived as the ratio of the distance separating the point from the line identified as the dry edge to the distance separating the dry edge and the line identified as the wet edge. The dry and wet edges are classically defined as the upper and lower limit of the spaces, respectively. When investigating side by side the T -α and the T - f vg spaces, one observes that the range covered by T values on the (classically determined) wet edge is different for both spaces. In addition, when extending the wet and dry lines of the T -α space, both lines cross at α ≈ 0.4 although the wet and dry edges of the T - f vg space never cross for 0 ≤ f vg 〈 1. In this paper, a new ET (EF) model (SEB-1S) is derived by revisiting the classical physical interpretation of the T -α space to make its wet edge consistent with that of the T - f vg space. SEB-1S is tested over a 16 km by 10 km irrigated area in northwestern Mexico during the 2007–2008 agricultural season. The classical T -α space-based model is implemented as benchmark to evaluate the performance of SEB-1S. Input data are composed of ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer) thermal infrared, Formosat-2 shortwave, and station-based meteorological data. The fluxes simulated by SEB-1S and the classical T -α space-based model are compared on seven ASTER overpass dates with the in situ measurements collected at six locations within the study domain. The ET simulated by SEB-1S is significantly more accurate and robust than that predicted by the classical T -α space-based model. The correlation coefficient and slope of the linear regression between simulated and observed ET is improved from 0.82 to 0.93, and from 0.63 to 0.90, respectively. Moreover, constraining the wet edge using air temperature data improves the slope of the linear regression between simulated and observed ET.

Description: On an improved sub-regional water resources management representation for integration into earth system models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3605-3622, 2013 Author(s): N. Voisin, H. Li, D. Ward, M. Huang, M. Wigmosta, and L. R. Leung Human influence on the hydrologic cycle includes regulation and storage, consumptive use and overall redistribution of water resources in space and time. Representing these processes is essential for applications of earth system models in hydrologic and climate predictions, as well as impact studies at regional to global scales. Emerging large-scale research reservoir models use generic operating rules that are flexible for coupling with earth system models. Those generic operating rules have been successful in reproducing the overall regulated flow at large basin scales. This study investigates the uncertainties of the reservoir models from different implementations of the generic operating rules using the complex multi-objective Columbia River Regulation System in northwestern United States as an example to understand their effects on not only regulated flow but also reservoir storage and fraction of the demand that is met. Numerical experiments are designed to test new generic operating rules that combine storage and releases targets for multi-purpose reservoirs and to compare the use of reservoir usage priorities and predictors (withdrawals vs. consumptive demands, as well as natural vs. regulated mean flow) for configuring operating rules. Overall the best performing implementation is with combined priorities rules (flood control storage targets and irrigation release targets) set up with mean annual natural flow and mean monthly withdrawals. The options of not accounting for groundwater withdrawals, or on the contrary, of assuming that all remaining demand is met through groundwater extractions, are discussed.

Description: On selection of the optimal data time interval for real-time hydrological forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3639-3659, 2013 Author(s): J. Liu and D. Han With the advancement in modern telemetry and communication technologies, hydrological data can be collected with an increasingly higher sampling rate. An important issue deserving attention from the hydrological community is which suitable time interval of the model input data should be chosen in hydrological forecasting. Such a problem has long been recognised in the control engineering community but is a largely ignored topic in operational applications of hydrological forecasting. In this study, the intrinsic properties of rainfall–runoff data with different time intervals are first investigated from the perspectives of the sampling theorem and the information loss using the discrete wavelet transform tool. It is found that rainfall signals with very high sampling rates may not always improve the accuracy of rainfall–runoff modelling due to the catchment low-pass-filtering effect. To further investigate the impact of a data time interval in real-time forecasting, a real-time forecasting system is constructed by incorporating the probability distributed model (PDM) with a real-time updating scheme, the autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) model. Case studies are then carried out on four UK catchments with different concentration times for real-time flow forecasting using data with different time intervals of 15, 30, 45, 60, 90 and 120 min. A positive relation is found between the forecast lead time and the optimal choice of the data time interval, which is also highly dependent on the catchment concentration time. Finally, based on the conclusions from the case studies, a hypothetical pattern is proposed in three-dimensional coordinates to describe the general impact of the data time interval and to provide implications of the selection of the optimal time interval in real-time hydrological forecasting. Although nowadays most operational hydrological systems still have low data sampling rates (daily or hourly), the future is that higher sampling rates will become more widespread, and there is an urgent need for hydrologists both in academia and in the field to realise the significance of the data time interval issue. It is important that more case studies in different catchments with various hydrological forecasting systems are explored in the future to further verify and improve the proposed hypothetical pattern.

Description: Benchmark products for land evapotranspiration: LandFlux-EVAL multi-data set synthesis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3707-3720, 2013 Author(s): B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. G. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne Land evapotranspiration (ET) estimates are available from several global data sets. Here, monthly global land ET synthesis products, merged from these individual data sets over the time periods 1989–1995 (7 yr) and 1989–2005 (17 yr), are presented. The merged synthesis products over the shorter period are based on a total of 40 distinct data sets while those over the longer period are based on a total of 14 data sets. In the individual data sets, ET is derived from satellite and/or in situ observations (diagnostic data sets) or calculated via land-surface models (LSMs) driven with observations-based forcing or output from atmospheric reanalyses. Statistics for four merged synthesis products are provided, one including all data sets and three including only data sets from one category each (diagnostic, LSMs, and reanalyses). The multi-annual variations of ET in the merged synthesis products display realistic responses. They are also consistent with previous findings of a global increase in ET between 1989 and 1997 (0.13 mm yr −2 in our merged product) followed by a significant decrease in this trend (−0.18 mm yr −2 ), although these trends are relatively small compared to the uncertainty of absolute ET values. The global mean ET from the merged synthesis products (based on all data sets) is 493 mm yr −1 (1.35 mm d −1 ) for both the 1989–1995 and 1989–2005 products, which is relatively low compared to previously published estimates. We estimate global runoff (precipitation minus ET) to 263 mm yr −1 (34 406 km 3 yr −1 ) for a total land area of 130 922 000 km 2 . Precipitation, being an important driving factor and input to most simulated ET data sets, presents uncertainties between single data sets as large as those in the ET estimates. In order to reduce uncertainties in current ET products, improving the accuracy of the input variables, especially precipitation, as well as the parameterizations of ET, are crucial.

Description: Spatial patterns in timing of the diurnal temperature cycle Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3695-3706, 2013 Author(s): T. R. H. Holmes, W. T. Crow, and C. Hain This paper investigates the structural difference in timing of the diurnal temperature cycle (DTC) over land resulting from choice of measuring device or model framework. It is shown that the timing can be reliably estimated from temporally sparse observations acquired from a constellation of low Earth-orbiting satellites given record lengths of at least three months. Based on a year of data, the spatial patterns of mean DTC timing are compared between temperature estimates from microwave Ka-band, geostationary thermal infrared (TIR), and numerical weather prediction model output from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). It is found that the spatial patterns can be explained by vegetation effects, sensing depth differences and more speculatively the orientation of orographic relief features. In absolute terms, the GMAO model puts the peak of the DTC on average at 12:50 local solar time, 23 min before TIR with a peak temperature at 13:13 (both averaged over Africa and Europe). Since TIR is the shallowest observation of the land surface, this small difference represents a structural error that possibly affects the model's ability to assimilate observations that are closely tied to the DTC. The equivalent average timing for Ka-band is 13:44, which is influenced by the effect of increased sensing depth in desert areas. For non-desert areas, the Ka-band observations lag the TIR observations by only 15 min, which is in agreement with their respective theoretical sensing depth. The results of this comparison provide insights into the structural differences between temperature measurements and models, and can be used as a first step to account for these differences in a coherent way.

Description: Integrated hydrological modeling of the North China Plain and implications for sustainable water management Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3759-3778, 2013 Author(s): H. Qin, G. Cao, M. Kristensen, J. C. Refsgaard, M. O. Rasmussen, X. He, J. Liu, Y. Shu, and C. Zheng Groundwater overdraft has caused fast water level decline in the North China Plain (NCP) since the 1980s. Although many hydrological models have been developed for the NCP in the past few decades, most of them deal only with the groundwater component or only at local scales. In the present study, a coupled surface water–groundwater model using the MIKE SHE code has been developed for the entire alluvial plain of the NCP. All the major processes in the land phase of the hydrological cycle are considered in the integrated modeling approach. The most important parameters of the model are first identified by a sensitivity analysis process and then calibrated for the period 2000–2005. The calibrated model is validated for the period 2006–2008 against daily observations of groundwater heads. The simulation results compare well with the observations where acceptable values of root mean square error (RMSE) (most values lie below 4 m) and correlation coefficient ( R ) (0.36–0.97) are obtained. The simulated evapotranspiration (ET) is then compared with the remote sensing (RS)-based ET data to further validate the model simulation. The comparison result with a R 2 value of 0.93 between the monthly averaged values of simulated actual evapotranspiration (AET) and RS AET for the entire NCP shows a good performance of the model. The water balance results indicate that more than 70% of water leaving the flow system is attributed to the ET component, of which about 0.25% is taken from the saturated zone (SZ); about 29% comes from pumping, including irrigation pumping and non-irrigation pumping (net pumping). Sustainable water management analysis of the NCP is conducted using the simulation results obtained from the integrated model. An effective approach to improve water use efficiency in the NCP is by reducing the actual ET, e.g. by introducing water-saving technologies and changes in cropping.

Description: Simulation of a persistent medium-term precipitation event over the western Iberian Peninsula Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3741-3758, 2013 Author(s): S. C. Pereira, A. C. Carvalho, J. Ferreira, J. P. Nunes, J. J. Keizer, and A. Rocha This study evaluated the performance of the WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting with Advanced Research) weather prediction model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed during the rainy season and, more specifically, the month of December 2009. In this period, the region of interest was under the influence of a sequential passage of low-pressure systems associated with frontal surfaces. These synoptic weather patterns were responsible for long periods of rainfall, resulting in a high monthly precipitation. The WRF model results during the study period were furthermore evaluated with the specific objective to complement gaps in the precipitation recordings of a reference meteorological station (located in Pousadas), the data of which are fundamental for hydrological studies in nearby experimental catchments. Three distinct WRF model runs were forced with initial fields and boundary conditions obtained from a global domain model: (1) a reference experiment with no nudging (RunRef); (2) observational nudging for a specific location, i.e. the above-mentioned Pousadas reference station (RunObsN); and (3) nudging to the analysed field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated, using several statistical parameters, against a dataset of 27 rainfall stations that were grouped by elevation. The three model runs had similar performances, even though RunGridN resulted in a slight improvement. Regarding the other two experiments, this improvement justifies its use for complementing the surface measurements at the Pousadas reference station. Overall model accuracy, expressed in root mean square error (RMSE), of the three runs was comparable for the stations of the different elevations classes. Even so, it was slightly better for stations in the lowlands than the highlands. Furthermore, model predictions tended to be less accurate for stations located in rough terrain and deep valleys.

Description: Investigating the spatio-temporal variability in groundwater and surface water interactions: a multi-technique approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3437-3453, 2013 Author(s): N. P. Unland, I. Cartwright, M. S. Andersen, G. C. Rau, J. Reed, B. S. Gilfedder, A. P. Atkinson, and H. Hofmann The interaction between groundwater and surface water along the Tambo and Nicholson rivers, southeast Australia, was investigated using 222 Rn, Cl, differential flow gauging, head gradients, electrical conductivity (EC) and temperature profiles. Head gradients, temperature profiles, Cl concentrations and 222 Rn activities all indicate higher groundwater fluxes to the Tambo River in areas of increased topographic variation where the potential to form large groundwater–surface water gradients is greater. Groundwater discharge to the Tambo River calculated by Cl mass balance was significantly lower (1.48 × 10 4 to 1.41 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) than discharge estimated by 222 Rn mass balance (5.35 × 10 5 to 9.56 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) and differential flow gauging (5.41 × 10 5 to 6.30 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) due to bank return waters. While groundwater sampling from the bank of the Tambo River was intended to account for changes in groundwater chemistry associated with bank infiltration, variations in bank infiltration between sample sites remain unaccounted for, limiting the use of Cl as an effective tracer. Groundwater discharge to both the Tambo and Nicholson rivers was the highest under high-flow conditions in the days to weeks following significant rainfall, indicating that the rivers are well connected to a groundwater system that is responsive to rainfall. Groundwater constituted the lowest proportion of river discharge during times of increased rainfall that followed dry periods, while groundwater constituted the highest proportion of river discharge under baseflow conditions (21.4% of the Tambo in April 2010 and 18.9% of the Nicholson in September 2010).

Description: Implementation and evaluation of prognostic representations of the optical diameter of snow in the detailed snowpack model SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4443-4500, 2013 Author(s): C. M. Carmagnola, S. Morin, M. Lafaysse, F. Domine, B. Lesaffre, Y. Lejeune, G. Picard, and L. Arnaud In the SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus multi-layer snowpack model, the snow microstructure was up to now characterized by the grain size and by semi-empirical shape variables which cannot be measured easily in the field or linked to other relevant snow properties. In this work we introduce a new formulation of snow metamorphism directly based on equations describing the rate of change of the optical diameter ( d opt ). This variable is considered here to be equal to the equivalent sphere optical diameter, which is inversely proportional to the specific surface area (SSA). d opt thus represents quantitatively some of the geometric characteristics of a porous medium. Different prognostic rate equations of d opt , including a re-formulation of the original Crocus scheme and the parametrizations from Taillandier et al. (2007) and Flanner and Zender (2006), were evaluated by comparing their predictions to field measurements carried out at Summit Camp (Greenland) in May and June 2011 and at Col de Porte (French Alps) during the 2009/10 and 2011/12 winter seasons. We focused especially on results in terms of SSA. In addition, we tested the impact of the different formulations on the simulated density profile, the total snow height, the snow water equivalent (SWE) and the surface albedo. Results indicate that all formulations perform well, with median values of the RMSD between measured and simulated SSA lower than 10 m 2 kg −1 . Incorporating the optical diameter as a fully-fledged prognostic variable is an important step forward in the quantitative description of the snow microstructure within snowpack models, because it opens the way to data assimilation of various electromagnetic observations.

Description: Resolving structural errors in a spatially distributed hydrologic model using ensemble Kalman filter state updates Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3455-3472, 2013 Author(s): J. H. Spaaks and W. Bouten In hydrological modeling, model structures are developed in an iterative cycle as more and different types of measurements become available and our understanding of the hillslope or watershed improves. However, with increasing complexity of the model, it becomes more and more difficult to detect which parts of the model are deficient, or which processes should also be incorporated into the model during the next development step. In this study, we first compare two methods (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (SCEM-UA) and the Simultaneous parameter Optimization and Data Assimilation algorithm (SODA)) to calibrate a purposely deficient 3-D hillslope-scale model to error-free, artificially generated measurements. We use a multi-objective approach based on distributed pressure head at the soil–bedrock interface and hillslope-scale discharge and water balance. For these idealized circumstances, SODA's usefulness as a diagnostic methodology is demonstrated by its ability to identify the timing and location of processes that are missing in the model. We show that SODA's state updates provide information that could readily be incorporated into an improved model structure, and that this type of information cannot be gained from parameter estimation methods such as SCEM-UA. We then expand on the SODA result by performing yet another calibration, in which we investigate whether SODA's state updating patterns are still capable of providing insight into model structure deficiencies when there are fewer measurements, which are moreover subject to measurement noise. We conclude that SODA can help guide the discussion between experimentalists and modelers by providing accurate and detailed information on how to improve spatially distributed hydrologic models.

Description: Distribution and recent variations of supraglacial lakes on dendritic-type glaciers in the Khan Tengri-Tomur Mountains, Central Asia The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4545-4584, 2013 Author(s): Q. Liu, C. Mayer, and S. Liu Supraglacial lakes are widely distributed on glaciers in the Tomur-Khan Tengri Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia. The existence and development of supraglacial lakes play an important role in the ice melting processes and also in the storage and release of glacial melt water. Here we mapped the supraglacial lakes of eight typical debris-covered dendritic-type glaciers around the Tomur-Khan Tengri peaks based on 9 Landsat TM/ETM+ images acquired in the summers of 1990 until 2011. With a lower area limit of 3600 m 2 for a conservative identification of glacial lakes, we mapped 775 supraglacial lakes and 38 marginal glacial lakes in total. Our results indicate that supraglacial lakes (area 〉 3600 m 2 ) in the study region never develop beyond an elevation of about 3850 m a.s.l., 800 m lower than the maximum upper boundary of debris cover (4650 m a.s.l.). The area-elevation distribution shows that lakes are predominantly occured close to the altitude of 3250 m a.s.l., where the clean ice simultaneously disappears. The majority of the supraglacial lakes are found on the Tomur Glacier and the South Inylchek Glacier, two strongly debris-covered dendritic-type glaciers in the region. As for the multi-year variation of lake area, the summer total and mean areas of supraglacial lakes show some variability from 1990 and 2005 but increased noticeably between 2005 and 2011. The mean area of the mapped lakes reached a maximum in 2010. We found that the area of supraglacial lakes is positively correlated to the total precipitation in summer (July to September) but negatively correlated to the mean spring air temperature (April to June). Pre-summer air temperature fluctuations likely have a stronger impact on the different evolution processes of glacial drainage, evolving from unconnected to connected systems, which may lead to the drainage of larger supraglacial lakes and results in shrinkage of the total and mean lake area during the summer.

Description: Fracture-induced softening for large-scale ice dynamics The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4501-4544, 2013 Author(s): T. Albrecht and A. Levermann Floating ice shelves can exert a retentive and hence stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet of Antarctica. However, this effect has been observed to diminish by fracture-coupled dynamic processes within the protective ice shelves leading to accelerated ice flow and hence to a sea-level contribution. In order to better understand the role of fractures in ice dynamics we apply a large-scale continuum representation of fractures and related fracture growth into the prognostic Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). To this end we introduce a higher-order accuracy advection scheme for the transport of the two-dimensional fracture density across the regular computational grid. Dynamic coupling of fractures and ice flow is attained by a reduction of effective ice viscosity proportional to the inferred fracture density. This formulation implies the possibility of a non-linear threshold behavior due to self-amplified fracturing in shear regions triggered by small variations in damage threshold. As a result of prognostic flow simulations, flow patterns with realistically large across-flow velocity gradients in fracture-weakened regions as seen in observations are reproduced. This model framework is expandable to grounded ice streams and accounts for climate-induced effects on fracturing and hence on the ice-flow dynamics. It further allows for an enhanced fracture-based calving parameterization.

Description: Sea ice detection with space-based LIDAR The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4681-4701, 2013 Author(s): S. Rodier, Y. Hu, and M. Vaughan Monitoring long-term climate change in the Polar Regions relies on accurate, detailed and repeatable measurements of geophysical processes and states. These regions are among the Earth's most vulnerable ecosystems, and measurements there have shown rapid changes in the seasonality and the extent of snow and sea ice coverage. The authors have recently developed a promising new technique that uses lidar surface measurements from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission to infer ocean surface ice-water phase. CALIPSO's 532 nm depolarization ratio measurements of the ocean surface are uniquely capable of providing information about the ever-changing sea surface state within the Polar Regions. With the finer resolution of the CALIPSO footprint (90 m diameter, spaced 335 m apart) and its ability to acquire measurements during both daytime and nighttime orbit segments and in the presence of clouds, the CALIPSO sea ice product provides fine-scale information on mixed phase scenes and can be used to assess/validate the estimates of sea-ice concentration currently provided by passive sensors. This paper describes the fundamentals of the CALIPSO sea-ice detection and classification technique. We present retrieval results from a six-year study, which are compared to existing data sets obtained by satellite-based passive remote sensors.

Description: Spatial and seasonal variations in evapotranspiration over Canada's landmass Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3561-3575, 2013 Author(s): S. Wang, Y. Yang, Y. Luo, and A. Rivera A 30 yr (1979–2008) dataset of actual evapotranspiration (ET) at 1 km resolution was generated over Canada's landmass by integrating remote sensing land surface data and gridded climate data using the EALCO model run at a 30 min time step. This long-term high-resolution dataset was used to characterize the spatiotemporal variations in ET across Canada. The results show that annual ET varied from 600 mm yr −1 over several regions in the south to less than 100 mm yr −1 in the northern Arctic. Nationally, ET in summer (i.e., June to August) comprised 65% of the annual total amount. ET in the cold season remained mostly below 10 mm month −1 over the country. Negative monthly ET was obtained over the Arctic region in winter, indicating EALCO simulated a larger amount of condensation than ET. Overall, the mean ET over the entire Canadian landmass for the 30 yr was 239 mm yr −1 , or 44% of its corresponding precipitation. Comparisons of available ET studies in Canada revealed large uncertainties in ET estimates associated with using different approaches. The scarcity of ET measurements for the diverse ecosystems in Canada remains a significant challenge for reducing the uncertainties; this gap needs to be addressed in future studies to improve capabilities in climate/weather modeling and water resource management.

Description: Simulating the role of gravel on the dynamics of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4703-4740, 2013 Author(s): S. Yi, J. Chen, Q. Wu, and Y. Ding Gravel (particle size ≥ 2 mm) is common in soil profiles of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). It has different thermal and hydrological properties than other fine mineral soils (particle size 〈 2 mm), which may have significant impacts on the thermal and hydrological processes of soil. However, few models have considered gravel. In this study, we implemented the thermal and hydraulic properties of gravel into the Dynamic Organic Soil-Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to develop new schemes to simulate the dynamics of permafrost on the QTP. Results showed that: (1) the widely used Farouki thermal scheme always simulated higher thermal conductivity of frozen soils than unfrozen soils with the same soil water content; therefore it tends to overestimate permafrost thickness strongly; (2) there exists a soil moisture threshold, below which the new set of schemes with gravel simulated smaller thermal conductivity of frozen soils than unfrozen soils; (3) soil with gravel has higher hydraulic conductivity and poorer water retention capability; and simulations with gravel were usually drier than those without gravel; and (4) the new schemes simulated faster upward degradation than downward degradation; and the simulated permafrost thicknesses were sensitive to the fraction of gravel, the gravel size, the thickness of soil with gravel, and the subsurface drainage. To reduce the uncertainties in the projection of permafrost degradation on the QTP, more effort should be made to: (1) developing robust relationships between soil thermal and hydraulic properties and gravel characteristics based on laboratory work; and (2) compiling spatial datasets of the vertical distribution of gravel content based on measurements during drilling or the digging of soil pits.

Description: Post-processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short-term streamflow forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3587-3603, 2013 Author(s): D. E. Robertson, D. L. Shrestha, and Q. J. Wang Sub-daily ensemble rainfall forecasts that are bias free and reliably quantify forecast uncertainty are critical for flood and short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting. Post-processing of rainfall predictions from numerical weather prediction models is typically required to provide rainfall forecasts with these properties. In this paper, a new approach to generate ensemble rainfall forecasts by post-processing raw numerical weather prediction (NWP) rainfall predictions is introduced. The approach uses a simplified version of the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to produce forecast probability distributions for individual locations and forecast lead times. Ensemble forecasts with appropriate spatial and temporal correlations are then generated by linking samples from the forecast probability distributions using the Schaake shuffle. The new approach is evaluated by applying it to post-process predictions from the ACCESS-R numerical weather prediction model at rain gauge locations in the Ovens catchment in southern Australia. The joint distribution of NWP predicted and observed rainfall is shown to be well described by the assumed log-sinh transformed bivariate normal distribution. Ensemble forecasts produced using the approach are shown to be more skilful than the raw NWP predictions both for individual forecast lead times and for cumulative totals throughout all forecast lead times. Skill increases result from the correction of not only the mean bias, but also biases conditional on the magnitude of the NWP rainfall prediction. The post-processed forecast ensembles are demonstrated to successfully discriminate between events and non-events for both small and large rainfall occurrences, and reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. Future work will assess the efficacy of the post-processing method for a wider range of climatic conditions and also investigate the benefits of using post-processed rainfall forecasts for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting.

Description: Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3661-3677, 2013 Author(s): A. F. Lutz, W. W. Immerzeel, A. Gobiet, F. Pellicciotti, and M. F. P. Bierkens Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July–September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October–February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

Description: Prediction of dissolved reactive phosphorus losses from small agricultural catchments: calibration and validation of a parsimonious model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3679-3693, 2013 Author(s): C. Hahn, V. Prasuhn, C. Stamm, P. Lazzarotto, M. W. H. Evangelou, and R. Schulin Eutrophication of surface waters due to diffuse phosphorus (P) losses continues to be a severe water quality problem worldwide, causing the loss of ecosystem functions of the respective water bodies. Phosphorus in runoff often originates from a small fraction of a catchment only. Targeting mitigation measures to these critical source areas (CSAs) is expected to be most efficient and cost-effective, but requires suitable tools. Here we investigated the capability of the parsimonious Rainfall-Runoff-Phosphorus (RRP) model to identify CSAs in grassland-dominated catchments based on readily available soil and topographic data. After simultaneous calibration on runoff data from four small hilly catchments on the Swiss Plateau, the model was validated on a different catchment in the same region without further calibration. The RRP model adequately simulated the discharge and dissolved reactive P (DRP) export from the validation catchment. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model predictions were robust with respect to the classification of soils into "poorly drained" and "well drained", based on the available soil map. Comparing spatial hydrological model predictions with field data from the validation catchment provided further evidence that the assumptions underlying the model are valid and that the model adequately accounts for the dominant P export processes in the target region. Thus, the parsimonious RRP model is a valuable tool that can be used to determine CSAs. Despite the considerable predictive uncertainty regarding the spatial extent of CSAs, the RRP can provide guidance for the implementation of mitigation measures. The model helps to identify those parts of a catchment where high DRP losses are expected or can be excluded with high confidence. Legacy P was predicted to be the dominant source for DRP losses and thus, in combination with hydrologic active areas, a high risk for water quality.

Description: Ice volume estimates for the Himalaya–Karakoram region: evaluating different methods The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4813-4854, 2013 Author(s): H. Frey, H. Machguth, M. Huss, C. Huggel, S. Bajracharya, T. Bolch, A. Kulkarni, A. Linsbauer, N. Salzmann, and M. Stoffel Ice volume estimates are crucial for assessing water reserves stored in glaciers. A variety of different methodologies exist but there is a lack of systematic comparative analysis thereof. Due to its large glacier coverage, such estimates are of particular interest for the Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) region. Here, three volume–area (V–A) relations, a slope-dependent estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models are applied to a complete glacier inventory of the HK region. An uncertainty and sensitivity assessment is performed to investigate the influence of the input glacier areas, and model approaches and parameters on the resulting total ice volumes. Results of the two ice-thickness distribution models are validated with local ice-thickness measurements at six glaciers. The resulting ice volumes for the entire HK region range from 2955 km 3 to 6455 km 3 , depending on the approach. Results from the ice thickness distribution models and the slope-dependent thickness estimations agree well with measured local ice thicknesses while V–A relations show stronger deviations. The study provides evidence on the significant effect of the selected method on results and underlines the importance of a careful and critical evaluation. More ice-thickness measurements are needed to improve models and results in the future.

Description: Black carbon concentrations from a Tibetan Plateau ice core spanning 1843–1982: recent increases due to emissions and glacier melt The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4855-4880, 2013 Author(s): M. Jenkins, S. Kaspari, S. Kang, B. Grigholm, and P. A. Mayewski Black carbon (BC) deposited on snow and glacier surfaces can reduce albedo and lead to accelerated melt. An ice core recovered from Guoqu glacier on Mt. Geladaindong and analyzed using a Single Particle Soot Photometer provides the first long-term (1843–1982) record of BC concentrations from the Central Tibetan Plateau. The highest concentrations are observed from 1975–1982, which corresponds to a 2.0-fold and 2.4-fold increase in average and median values, respectively, relative to 1843–1940. BC concentrations post-1940 are also elevated relative to the earlier portion of the record. Causes for the higher BC concentrations include increased regional BC emissions and subsequent deposition, and melt induced enrichment of BC, with the melt potentially accelerated due to the presence of BC at the glacier surface. A qualitative comparison of the BC and Fe (used as a dust proxy) records suggests that if changes in the concentrations of absorbing impurities at the glacier surface have influenced recent glacial melt, the melt may be due to the presence of BC rather than dust. Guoqu glacier has received no net ice accumulation since the 1980s, and is a potential example of a glacier where an increase in the equilibrium line altitude is exposing buried high impurity layers. That BC concentrations in the uppermost layers of the Geladaindong ice core are not substantially higher relative to deeper in the ice core suggests that some of the BC that must have been deposited on Guoqu glacier via wet or dry deposition between 1983 and 2005 has been removed from the surface of the glacier, potentially via supraglacial or englacial meltwater.

Description: High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: a first evaluation of the ALADIN-Climate model in Morocco Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3721-3739, 2013 Author(s): Y. Tramblay, D. Ruelland, S. Somot, R. Bouaicha, and E. Servat In the framework of the international CORDEX program, new regional climate model (RCM) simulations at high spatial resolutions are becoming available for the Mediterranean region (Med-CORDEX initiative). This study provides the first evaluation for hydrological impact studies of one of these high-resolution simulations in a 1800 km 2 catchment located in North Morocco. Different approaches are compared to analyze the climate change impacts on the hydrology of this catchment using a high-resolution RCM (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative at two different spatial resolutions (50 and 12 km) and for two different Radiative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The main issues addressed in the present study are: (i) what is the impact of increased RCM resolution on present-climate hydrological simulations and on future projections? (ii) Are the bias-correction of the RCM model and the parameters of the hydrological model stationary and transferable to different climatic conditions? (iii) What is the climate and hydrological change signal based on the new Radiative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)? Results indicate that high resolution simulations at 12 km better reproduce the seasonal patterns, the seasonal distributions and the extreme events of precipitation. The parameters of the hydrological model, calibrated to reproduce runoff at the monthly time step over the 1984–2010 period, do not show a strong variability between dry and wet calibration periods in a differential split-sample test. However the bias correction of precipitation by quantile-matching does not give satisfactory results in validation using the same differential split-sample testing method. Therefore a quantile-perturbation method that does not rely on any stationarity assumption and produces ensembles of perturbed series of precipitation was introduced. The climate change signal under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicates a decrease of respectively −30 to −57% in surface runoff for the mid-term (2041–2062), when for the same period the projections for precipitation are ranging between −15 and −19% and for temperature between +1.3 and +1.9 °C.

Description: 3D-VAR multilayer assimilation of X-band SAR data into a detailed snowpack model The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4881-4912, 2013 Author(s): X. V. Phan, L. Ferro-Famil, M. Gay, Y. Durand, M. Dumont, S. Morin, S. Allain, G. D'Urso, and A. Girard We introduce a variational data assimilation scheme to assimilate X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data into a snowpack evolution model. The structure properties of a snowpack, such as snow density and grain optical diameter of each layer, are simulated over a period of time by the snow metamorphism model Crocus, fed by the local reanalysis SAFRAN at a French alpine location. These parameters are used as inputs of an Electromagnetic Backscattering Model (EBM) based on Dense Media Radiative Transfer (DMRT) theory, which calculates the simulated total backscattering coefficient. Next, 3D-VAR data assimilation is implemented in order to minimize the discrepancies between model simulations and observations obtained from SAR acquisitions, by modifying the parameters of a multilayer snowpack calculated by Crocus. The algorithm then reinitializes Crocus with the optimized snowpack structure properties, and therefore allows it to continue the simulation of snowpack evolution where adjustments based on remote sensing data has been taken into account. Results obtained using TerraSAR-X acquisitions on Argentière Glacier (Mont-Blanc massif, French Alps) show the high potential of this method for improving snow cover simulation.

Description: Errors in climate model daily precipitation and temperature output: time invariance and implications for bias correction Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2147-2159, 2013 Author(s): E. P. Maurer, T. Das, and D. R. Cayan When correcting for biases in general circulation model (GCM) output, for example when statistically downscaling for regional and local impacts studies, a common assumption is that the GCM biases can be characterized by comparing model simulations and observations for a historical period. We demonstrate some complications in this assumption, with GCM biases varying between mean and extreme values and for different sets of historical years. Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature from late 20th century simulations by four GCMs over the United States were compared to gridded observations. Using random years from the historical record we select a "base" set and a 10 yr independent "projected" set. We compare differences in biases between these sets at median and extreme percentiles. On average a base set with as few as 4 randomly-selected years is often adequate to characterize the biases in daily GCM precipitation and temperature, at both median and extreme values; 12 yr provided higher confidence that bias correction would be successful. This suggests that some of the GCM bias is time invariant. When characterizing bias with a set of consecutive years, the set must be long enough to accommodate regional low frequency variability, since the bias also exhibits this variability. Newer climate models included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fifth assessment will allow extending this study for a longer observational period and to finer scales.

Description: Characterization of groundwater dynamics in landslides in varved clays Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2171-2183, 2013 Author(s): J. E. van der Spek, T. A. Bogaard, and M. Bakker Groundwater dynamics may play a significant role in landslides. A detailed model is developed of the groundwater dynamics in landslides in varved clays in the Trièves area in the French Alps. The varved clays consist of a sequence of alternating silt and clay layers, covered by a colluvium layer and intersected by fissures. The hydraulic conductivity of the clay layers is negligible compared to the silt layers. It is conceptualized that fissures form a hydraulic connection between the colluvium and the varved clays. Groundwater recharge flows through the colluvium into the fissures, where water is exchanged horizontally between the fissure and the silt layers of the varved clays. Groundwater flow in the colluvium is simulated with the Boussinesq equation, while flow in the silt layers of the varved clays is simulated with the Richards equation. Longitudinal outflow from the fissure is simulated with a linear-reservoir model. Scattered data of relatively short monitoring periods is available for several landslides in the region. A good similarity between observed and simulated heads is obtained, especially when considering the lack of important physical parameters such as the fissure width and the distance between the monitoring point and the fissure. A simulation for the period 1959–2004 showed some correlation between peaks in the simulated heads and the recorded occurrence of landslides, while the bottom of the varved clays remained saturated during the entire simulation period.

Description: The physical basis for gas transport through polar firn: a case study at Summit, Greenland The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 2455-2487, 2013 Author(s): A. C. Adolph and M. R. Albert Compared to other natural porous materials, relatively little is known about the physical nature of polar firn. This intricate network of ice and pore space that comprises the top 60–100 m of the polar ice sheets is the framework that forms the natural archive of past climate information. Despite the many implications for ice core interpretation, direct measurements of physical properties throughout the firn column are limited. Models of gas transport through firn are used to interpret in-situ chemical data which is retrieved to analyze past atmospheric composition. These traditional models treat the firn as a "black box," with gas transport parameters tuned to match gas concentrations with depth to known atmospheric histories. Though this method has been largely successful and provided very useful insights, there are still many questions and uncertainties to be addressed. This work seeks to understand the impact of firn structure on gas transport in firn from a first principles standpoint through direct measurements of permeability, gas diffusivity and microstructure. The relationships between gas transport properties and microstructure will be characterized and compared to existing relationships for general porous media. Direct measurements of gas diffusivity are compared to diffusivities deduced from models based on firn air chemical sampling. Our comparison illuminates the primary importance of including microstructural parameters, beyond just porosity or density, in mass transport modeling, and it provides insights about the nature of gas transport throughout the firn column. Guidance is provided for development of next-generation firn air transport models.

Description: Assessing the hydrological effect of the check dams in the Loess Plateau, China, by model simulations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2185-2193, 2013 Author(s): Y. D. Xu, B. J. Fu, and C. S. He Check dams are commonly used for soil conservation. In the Loess Plateau of China, check dams have been widely constructed as the principal means to retain floodwater and intercept soil sediments since the 1970s. For instance, there are more than 6572 check dams in the Yanhe watershed with an area of 7725 km 2 in the Loess Plateau. However, little research has been done to quantify the hydrological effects of the check dams. In this research, the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied to simulate the runoff and sediment in the Yanhe watershed. We treated the 1950s to 1960s as the reference period since there were very few check dams during the period. The model was firstly calibrated and validated in the reference period. The calibrated model was then used in the later periods to simulate the hydrological effects of the check dams. The results showed that the check dams had a regulation effect on runoff and a retention effect on sediment. From 1984 to 1987, the runoff in rainy season (from May to October) decreased by 1.54 m 3 s −1 (14.7%) to 3.13 m 3 s −1 (25.9%) due to the check dams; while in dry season (from November to the following April), runoff increased by 1.46 m 3 s −1 (60.5%) to 1.95 m 3 s −1 (101.2%); the sediment in rainy season decreased by 2.49 × 10 6 ton (34.6%) to 4.35 × 10 6 ton (48.0%). From 2006 to 2008, the runoff in rainy season decreased by 0.79 m 3 s −1 (15.5%) to 1.75 m 3 s −1 (28.9%), and the runoff in dry season increased by 0.51 m 3 s −1 (20.1%) to 0.97 m 3 s −1 (46.4%); the sediment in rainy season decreased by 2.03 × 10 6 ton (79.4%) to 3.12 × 10 6 ton (85.5%). Construction of the large number of check dams in the Loess Plateau has enhanced the region's capacity to control the runoff and sediment. In the Yanhe watershed, the annual runoff was reduced by less than 14.3% due to the check dams; and the sediment in rainy season was blocked by up to 85.5%. Thus, check dams are effective measures for soil erosion control in the Loess Plateau.

Description: Solving Richards Equation for snow improves snowpack meltwater runoff estimations The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 2373-2412, 2013 Author(s): N. Wever, C. Fierz, C. Mitterer, H. Hirashima, and M. Lehning The runoff from the snow cover during spring snow melt or rain-on-snow events is an important factor in the hydrological cycle. In this study, water transport schemes for a 1-dimensional physical based snowpack model are compared to 14 yr of lysimeter measurements at a high alpine site. The schemes include a simple bucket-type approach, an approximation of Richards Equation (RE), and the full RE. The results show that daily sums of runoff are strongly related to a positive energy balance of the snow cover and therefore, all water transport schemes show very similar performance in terms of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficients (around 0.59) and r 2 values (around 0.77). Timing of the arrival of meltwater in spring at the bottom of the snowpack showed differences between the schemes, where especially in the bucket-type and approximated RE approach, meltwater release is slower than in the measurements. Overall, solving RE for the snow cover yields the best agreement between modelled and measured runoff. On sub-daily time scales, the water transport schemes behave very differently. Also here, solving RE provides the highest agreement between modelled and measured runoff in terms of NSE coefficient (0.48), where other water transport schemes loose any predictive power. This appears to be mainly due to bad timing of meltwater release during the day. Accordingly, solving RE for the snow cover improves several aspects of modelling snow cover runoff. The additional computational cost was found to be in the order of a factor of 1.5.

Description: An upper-bound estimate for the accuracy of volume-area scaling The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 2293-2331, 2013 Author(s): D. Farinotti and M. Huss Volume-area scaling is the most popular method for estimating the ice volume of large glacier samples. Here, a series of resampling experiments based on different sets of synthetic data are presented in order to derive an upper-bound estimate (i.e. a level achieved only with ideal conditions) for the accuracy of its application. We also quantify the maximum accuracy expected when scaling is used for determining the glacier volume change, and area change of a given glacier population. A comprehensive set of measured glacier areas, volumes, area and volume changes is evaluated to investigate the impact of real-world data quality on the so assessed accuracies. For populations larger than a few thousand glaciers, the total ice volume can be recovered within 30% if all measurements available worldwide are used for estimating the scaling coefficients. Assuming no systematic biases in ice volume measurements, their uncertainty is of secondary importance. Knowing the individual areas of a glacier sample for two points in time allows recovering the corresponding ice volume change within 40% for populations larger than a few hundred glaciers, both for steady-state and transient geometries. If ice volume changes can be estimated without bias, glacier area changes derived from volume-area scaling show similar uncertainties as for the volume changes. This paper does not aim at making a final judgement about the suitability of volume-area scaling, but provides the means for assessing the accuracy expected from its application.

Description: Evaluation of the snow regime in dynamic vegetation land surface models using field measurements The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 2333-2372, 2013 Author(s): E. Kantzas, M. Lomas, S. Quegan, and E. Zakharova An increasing number of studies have demonstrated the significant climatic and ecological changes occurring in the northern latitudes over the past decades. As coupled, earth-system models attempt to describe and simulate the dynamics and complex feedbacks of the Arctic environment, it is important to reduce their uncertainties in short-term predictions by improving the description of both the systems processes and its initial state. This study focuses on snow-related variables and extensively utilizes a historical data set (1966–1996) of field snow measurements acquired across the extend of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) to evaluate a range of simulated snow metrics produced by a variety of land surface models, most of them embedded in IPCC-standard climate models. We reveal model-specific issues in simulating snow dynamics such as magnitude and timings of SWE as well as evolution of snow density. We further employ the field snow measurements alongside novel and model-independent methodologies to extract for the first time (i) a fresh snow density value (57–117 kg m –3 ) for the region and (ii) mean monthly snowpack sublimation estimates across a grassland-dominated western (November–February) [9.2, 6.1, 9.15, 15.25] mm and forested eastern sub-sector (November–March) [1.53, 1.52, 3.05, 3.80, 12.20] mm; we subsequently use the retrieved values to assess relevant model outputs. The discussion session consists of two parts. The first describes a sensitivity study where field data of snow depth and snow density are forced directly into the surface heat exchange formulation of a land surface model to evaluate how inaccuracies in simulating snow metrics affect important modeled variables and carbon fluxes such as soil temperature, thaw depth and soil carbon decomposition. The second part showcases how the field data can be assimilated with ready-available optimization techniques to pinpoint model issues and improve their performance.

Description: Determining spatial variability of dry spells: a Markov-based method, applied to the Makanya catchment, Tanzania Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2161-2170, 2013 Author(s): B. M. C. Fischer, M. L. Mul, and H. H. G. Savenije With a growing world population and a trend towards more resource-intensive diets, pressure on land and water resources for food production will continue to increase in the coming decades. Large parts of the world rely on rainfed agriculture for their food security. In Africa, 90% of the food production is from rainfed agriculture, generally with low yields and a high risk of crop failure. One of the main reasons for crop failure is the occurrence of dry spells during the growing season. Key indicators are the critical dry spell duration and the probability of dry spell occurrence. In this paper a new Markov-based framework is presented to spatially map the length of dry spells for fixed probabilities of non-exceedance. The framework makes use of spatially varying Markov coefficients that are correlated to readily available spatial information such as elevation and distance to the sea. The dry spell map thus obtained is compared to the spatially variable critical dry spell duration, based on soil properties and crop water requirements, to assess the probability of crop failure in different locations. The results show that in the Makanya catchment the length of dry spell occurrence is highly variable in space, even over relatively short distances. In certain areas the probability of crop failure reaches levels that make rainfed agricultural unsustainable, even close to areas where currently rainfed agriculture is successfully being practised. This method can be used to identify regions that are vulnerable to dry spells and, subsequently, to develop strategies for supplementary irrigation or rainwater harvesting.

Description: Spatial debris-cover effect on the maritime glaciers of Mount Gongga, south-eastern Tibetan Plateau The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 2413-2453, 2013 Author(s): Y. Zhang, Y. Hirabayashi, K. Fujita, S. Liu, and Q. Liu The Tibetan Plateau and surroundings contain a large number of debris-covered glaciers, on which debris cover affects glacier response to climate change by altering ice melting rates and spatial patterns of mass loss. Insufficient spatial distribution of debris thickness data makes it difficult to analyze regional debris-cover effects. Mount Gongga glaciers, maritime glaciers in the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau, are characterized by a substantial reduction in glacier length and ice mass in recent decades. Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER)-derived thermal property of the debris layer reveals that 68% of the glaciers have extensive mantles of supraglacial debris in their ablation zones, in which the proportion of debris cover to total glacier area varies from 1.74% to 53.0%. Using a surface energy-mass balance model accounting for the debris-cover effect applied at a regional scale, we find that although the presence of supraglacial debris has a significant insulating effect on heavily debris-covered glaciers, it accelerates ice melting on ~ 10.2% of the total ablation area and produces rapid wastage of ~ 25% of the debris-covered glaciers, resulting in the similar mass losses between debris-covered and debris-free glaciers. Widespread debris cover also facilitates the development of active terminus regions. Regional differences in the debris-cover effect are apparent, highlighting the importance of debris cover for understanding glacier status and hydrology in both the Tibetan Plateau and other mountain ranges around the world.

Description: Decadal changes from a multi-temporal glacier inventory of Svalbard The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 2489-2532, 2013 Author(s): C. Nuth, J. Kohler, M. König, A. von Deschwanden, J. O. Hagen, A. Kääb, G. Moholdt, and R. Pettersson We present a multi-temporal digital inventory of Svalbard glaciers with the most recent from the late 2000s containing 33 775 km 2 of glaciers, or 57% of the total land area of the archipelago. At present, 68% of the glaciated area of Svalbard drains through tidewater glaciers that have a summed terminus width of ~ 740 km. The glaciated area over the entire archipelago has decreased by an average of 80 km 2 a −1 over the past ~ 30 yr, representing a reduction of 7%. For a sample of ~ 400 glaciers (10 000 km 2 ) in the south and west of Spitsbergen, three digital inventories are available from 1930/60s, 1990 and 2007 from which we calculate average changes during 2 epochs. In the more recent epoch, the terminus retreat was larger than in the earlier epoch while area shrinkage was smaller. The contrasting pattern may be explained by the decreased lateral wastage of the glacier tongues. Temporal retreat rates for individual glaciers show a mix of accelerating and decelerating trends, reflecting the large spatial variability of glacier types and climatic/dynamic response times in Svalbard. Last, retreat rates estimated by dividing glacier area changes by the tongue width are larger than centerline retreat due to a more encompassing frontal change estimate with inclusion of lateral area loss.

Description: Estimating actual, potential, reference crop and pan evaporation using standard meteorological data: a pragmatic synthesis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1331-1363, 2013 Author(s): T. A. McMahon, M. C. Peel, L. Lowe, R. Srikanthan, and T. R. McVicar This guide to estimating daily and monthly actual, potential, reference crop and pan evaporation covers topics that are of interest to researchers, consulting hydrologists and practicing engineers. Topics include estimating actual evaporation from deep lakes and from farm dams and for catchment water balance studies, estimating potential evaporation as input to rainfall-runoff models, and reference crop evapotranspiration for small irrigation areas, and for irrigation within large irrigation districts. Inspiration for this guide arose in response to the authors' experiences in reviewing research papers and consulting reports where estimation of the actual evaporation component in catchment and water balance studies was often inadequately handled. Practical guides using consistent terminology that cover both theory and practice are not readily available. Here we provide such a guide, which is divided into three parts. The first part provides background theory and an outline of the conceptual models of potential evaporation of Penman, Penman–Monteith and Priestley–Taylor, as well as discussions of reference crop evapotranspiration and Class-A pan evaporation. The last two sub-sections in this first part include techniques to estimate actual evaporation from (i) open-surface water and (ii) landscapes and catchments (Morton and the advection-aridity models). The second part addresses topics confronting a practicing hydrologist, e.g. estimating actual evaporation for deep lakes, shallow lakes and farm dams, lakes covered with vegetation, catchments, irrigation areas and bare soil. The third part addresses six related issues: (i) automatic (hard wired) calculation of evaporation estimates in commercial weather stations, (ii) evaporation estimates without wind data, (iii) at-site meteorological data, (iv) dealing with evaporation in a climate change environment, (v) 24 h versus day-light hour estimation of meteorological variables, and (vi) uncertainty in evaporation estimates. This paper is supported by a Supplement that includes 21 sections enhancing the material in the text, worked examples of many procedures discussed in the paper, a program listing (Fortran 90) of Morton's WREVAP evaporation models along with tables of monthly Class-A pan coefficients for 68 locations across Australia and other information.

Description: The effect of black carbon on reflectance of snow in the accumulation area of glaciers in the Baspa basin, Himachal Pradesh, India The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 1359-1382, 2013 Author(s): A. V. Kulkarni, G. Vinay Kumar, H. S. Negi, J. Srinivasan, and S. K. Satheesh Himalayan glaciers are being extensively debated in scientific and public forums, as changes in their distribution can significantly affect the availability of water in many rivers originating in the region. The distribution of glaciers can be influenced by mass balance, and most of the glaciers located in the Pir Panjal and Greater Himalayan mountain ranges are losing mass at the rate of almost a meter per year. The Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) has also shifted upward by 400 m in the last two decades. This upward migration of ELA and the loss in mass could have been influenced by changes in temperature, precipitation and by the deposition of black carbon in the accumulation area of glaciers. The deposition of black carbon can reduce the albedo of snow in the accumulation area leading to faster melting of snow and causing more negative mass balance. In this investigation, a change in reflectance in the accumulation area of the Baspa basin is analysed for the year 2009, as the region has experienced extensive forest fires along with northern Indian biomass burning. The investigation has shown that: (1) The number of forest fires in the summer of 2009 was substantially higher than in any other year between 2001 and 2010; (2) the drop in reflectance in the visible region from April to May in the accumulation area was significantly higher in the year 2009 than in any other year from 2000 to 2012; (3) the temperature of the region was substantially lower than the freezing point during the active fire period of 2009, indicating the small influence of liquid water and grain size; (4) the drop in reflectance was observed only in the visible region, indicating role of contamination; (5) in the visible region, a mean drop in reflectance of 21± 5% was observed during the active fire period in the accumulation area. At some places, the drop was as high as 50 ± 5%. This can only be explained by the deposition of black carbon. The study suggests that a change in snow albedo in the accumulation area due to the deposition of black carbon from anthropogenic and natural causes can influence the mass balance of the glaciers in the Baspa basin, Himachal Pradesh, India.

Description: Corrigendum to "Calibration of aerodynamic roughness over the Tibetan Plateau with Ensemble Kalman Filter analysed heat flux" published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4291–4302, 2012 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1309-1310, 2013 Author(s): J. H. Lee, J. Timmermans, Z. Su, and M. Mancini No abstract available.

Description: Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1311-1318, 2013 Author(s): F. Yusof, I. L. Kane, and Z. Yusop A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d) processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semiparametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983) to analyse nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long memory. Furthermore, an empirical fluctuation process using the ordinary least square (OLS)-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test for the break date was applied. Break dates were detected in all data sets. The data sets were partitioned according to their respective break date, and a further test for long memory was applied for all subseries. Results show that all subseries follows the same pattern as the original series. The estimate of the fractional parameters d 1 and d 2 on the subseries obtained by splitting the original series at the break date confirms that there is a long memory in the data generating process (DGP). Therefore this evidence shows a true long memory not due to structural break.

Description: Snow glacier melt estimation in tropical Andean glaciers using artificial neural networks Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1265-1280, 2013 Author(s): V. Moya Quiroga, A. Mano, Y. Asaoka, S. Kure, K. Udo, and J. Mendoza Snow and glacier melt (SGM) estimation plays an important role in water resources management. Although melting process can be modelled by energy balance methods, such studies require detailed data, which is rarely available. Hence, new and simpler approaches are needed for SGM estimations. The present study aims at developing an artificial neural networks (ANN) based technique for estimating the energy available for melt (EAM) and SGM rates using available and easy to obtain data such as temperature, short-wave radiation and relative humidity. Several ANN and multiple linear regression models (MLR) were developed to represent the energy fluxes and estimate the EAM. The models were trained using measured data from the Zongo glacier located in the outer tropics and validated against measured data from the Antizana glacier located in the inner tropics. It was found that ANN models provide a better generalisation when applied to other data sets. The performance of the models was improved by including Antizana data into the training set, as it was proved to provide better results than other techniques like the use of a prior logarithmic transformation. The final model was validated against measured data from the Alpine glaciers Argentière and Saint-Sorlin. Then, the models were applied for the estimation of SGM at Condoriri glacier. The estimated SGM was compared with SGM estimated by an enhanced temperature method and proved to have the same behaviour considering temperature sensibility. Moreover, the ANN models have the advantage of direct application, while the temperature method requires calibration of empirical coefficients.

Description: Assessment of shallow subsurface characterisation with non-invasive geophysical methods at the intermediate hill-slope scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1297-1307, 2013 Author(s): S. Popp, D. Altdorff, and P. Dietrich Hill-slopes of several hectares in size represent a difficult scale for subsurface characterisation, as these landscape units are well beyond the scope of traditional point-scale techniques. By means of electromagnetic induction (EMI) and gamma-ray spectroscopy, spatially distributed soil proxy data were collected from a heterogeneous hill-slope site. Results of EMI mapping using the EM38DD showed that soil electrical conductivity (ECa) is highly variable at both temporal and spatial scales. Calibration of the integral ECa signal to a specific target like soil moisture is hampered by the ambiguous response of EMI to the clay-rich hill-slope underground. Gamma-ray results were obtained during a single survey, along with EMI measurements and selected soil sampling. In contrast to ECa, a noticeable correlation between Total Count and K emission data and soil-water content seemed to be present. Relevant proxy variables from both methods were used for k means clustering in order to distinguish between hill-slope areas with different soil conditions. As a result, we obtained a suitable partition of hill-slope that was comparable with a previously obtained zonation model based on ecological factors.

Description: Multivariate return periods in hydrology: a critical and practical review focusing on synthetic design hydrograph estimation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1281-1296, 2013 Author(s): B. Gräler, M. J. van den Berg, S. Vandenberghe, A. Petroselli, S. Grimaldi, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest Most of the hydrological and hydraulic studies refer to the notion of a return period to quantify design variables. When dealing with multiple design variables, the well-known univariate statistical analysis is no longer satisfactory, and several issues challenge the practitioner. How should one incorporate the dependence between variables? How should a multivariate return period be defined and applied in order to yield a proper design event? In this study an overview of the state of the art for estimating multivariate design events is given and the different approaches are compared. The construction of multivariate distribution functions is done through the use of copulas, given their practicality in multivariate frequency analyses and their ability to model numerous types of dependence structures in a flexible way. A synthetic case study is used to generate a large data set of simulated discharges that is used for illustrating the effect of different modelling choices on the design events. Based on different uni- and multivariate approaches, the design hydrograph characteristics of a 3-D phenomenon composed of annual maximum peak discharge, its volume, and duration are derived. These approaches are based on regression analysis, bivariate conditional distributions, bivariate joint distributions and Kendall distribution functions, highlighting theoretical and practical issues of multivariate frequency analysis. Also an ensemble-based approach is presented. For a given design return period, the approach chosen clearly affects the calculated design event, and much attention should be given to the choice of the approach used as this depends on the real-world problem at hand.

Description: Supercooled interfacial water in fine grained soils probed by dielectric spectroscopy The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 1441-1493, 2013 Author(s): A. Lorek and N. Wagner Water as thermodynamic state parameter affects nearly all physical, chemical and biological processes on the earth. Recent Mars observations as well as laboratory investigations suggest that water is also a key factor of current physical and chemical processes on the martian surface, e.g. rheological phenomena. Therefore it is of particular interest to get information about the liquid like state of water on martian analog soils in the temperature range below 0 °C. In this context, a parallel plate capacitor has been developed to obtain isothermal dielectric spectra of fine grained soils in the frequency range from 10 Hz to 1.1 MHz at martian like temperatures down to −70 °C. Two martian analogue soils have been investigated: a Ca-Bentonite (specific surface of 237 m 2 g −1 , up to 9.4% w/w gravimetric water content) and JSC Mars 1, a volcanic ash (specific surface of 146 m 2 g −1 , up to 7.4% w/w ). Three soil-specific relaxation processes are observed in the investigated frequency-temperature range: two weak high frequency processes (bound or hydrated water as well as ice) and a strong low frequency process due to counter ion relaxation and the Maxwell–Wagner effect. To characterize the dielectric relaxation behavior, a generalized fractional dielectric relaxation model is applied assuming three active relaxation processes with relaxation time of the i th process according to an Eyring equation. The real part of effective complex soil permittivity at 350 kHz was used to determine ice and liquid like water content by means of the Birchak or CRIM equation. There are evidence that Bentonite down to −70 °C has a liquid like water content of 1.17 monolayers and JSC Mars 1 a liquid like water content of 1.96 mono layers.

Description: Derivation of RCM-driven potential evapotranspiration for hydrological climate change impact analysis in Great Britain: a comparison of methods and associated uncertainty in future projections Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1365-1377, 2013 Author(s): C. Prudhomme and J. Williamson Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the water that would be lost by plants through evaporation and transpiration if water was not limited in the soil, and it is commonly used in conceptual hydrological modelling in the calculation of runoff production and hence river discharge. Future changes of PET are likely to be as important as changes in precipitation patterns in determining changes in river flows. However PET is not calculated routinely by climate models so it must be derived independently when the impact of climate change on river flow is to be assessed. This paper compares PET estimates from 12 equations of different complexity, driven by the Hadley Centre's HadRM3-Q0 model outputs representative of 1961–1990, with MORECS PET, a product used as reference PET in Great Britain. The results show that the FAO56 version of the Penman–Monteith equations reproduces best the spatial and seasonal variability of MORECS PET across GB when driven by HadRM3-Q0 estimates of relative humidity, total cloud, wind speed and linearly bias-corrected mean surface temperature. This suggests that potential biases in HadRM3-Q0 climate do not result in significant biases when the physically based FAO56 equations are used. Percentage changes in PET between the 1961–1990 and 2041–2070 time slices were also calculated for each of the 12 PET equations from HadRM3-Q0. Results show a large variation in the magnitude (and sometimes direction) of changes estimated from different PET equations, with Turc, Jensen–Haise and calibrated Blaney–Criddle methods systematically projecting the largest increases across GB for all months and Priestley–Taylor, Makkink, and Thornthwaite showing the smallest changes. We recommend the use of the FAO56 equation as, when driven by HadRM3-Q0 climate data, this best reproduces the reference MORECS PET across Great Britain for the reference period of 1961–1990. Further, the future changes of PET estimated by FAO56 are within the range of uncertainty defined by the ensemble of 12 PET equations. The changes show a clear northwest–southeast gradient of PET increase with largest (smallest) changes in the northwest in January (July and October) respectively. However, the range in magnitude of PET changes due to the choice of PET method shown in this study for Great Britain suggests that PET uncertainty is a challenge facing the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology mostly ignored up to now.

Description: Impact of long-term drainage on summer groundwater flow patterns in the Mer Bleue peatland, Ontario, Canada Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3485-3498, 2013 Author(s): B. J. Kopp, J. H. Fleckenstein, N. T. Roulet, E. Humphreys, J. Talbot, and C. Blodau Long-term impacts of drier conditions on the hydrology of northern peatlands are poorly understood. We used long-term drainage near a historic drainage ditch, separating an area from the main peatland, as an analogue for long-term drying in a northern temperate bog. The objective was to identify the impact of drier conditions on ecohydrological processes and groundwater flow patterns in an area now forested and an area that maintained a bog-like character. Groundwater flow patterns alternated between mostly downward flow and occasionally upward flow in the bog area and were mostly upward-orientated in the forested area, which suggested that there the flow pattern had shifted from bog- to fen-like conditions. Flow patterns were in agreement with changes in post-drainage hydraulic conductivities, storage capacity of the peat and water table levels. Compared to the bog, hydraulic conductivities in the forested area were one to three orders of magnitude lower in the uppermost 0.75 m of peat (paired t test, p 〈 0.05). Bulk density had increased and the water table level was lower and more strongly fluctuating in the forested area. Our findings suggest hydraulic gradients and flow patterns have changed due to increased evapotranspiration and interception with the emergence of a tree cover. The smaller size of the now-forested area relative to the remaining bog area appeared to be important for the hydrological change. With the main Mer Bleue bog as hinterland, enhanced runoff to the drainage channel had little effect on hydrologic and vegetation patterns. In the cut-off, smaller, now forested area pervasive changes in vegetation and hydrologic processes occurred. The difference in response to local drainage raises questions about tipping points with respect to the impact of drying on peatland ecosystems that need to be addressed in future research.

Description: Potential and limitations of multidecadal satellite soil moisture observations for selected climate model evaluation studies Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3523-3542, 2013 Author(s): A. Loew, T. Stacke, W. Dorigo, R. de Jeu, and S. Hagemann Soil moisture is an essential climate variable (ECV) of major importance for land–atmosphere interactions and global hydrology. An appropriate representation of soil moisture dynamics in global climate models is therefore important. Recently, a first multidecadal, observation-based soil moisture dataset has become available that provides information on soil moisture dynamics from satellite observations (ECVSM, essential climate variable soil moisture). The present study investigates the potential and limitations of this new dataset for several applications in climate model evaluation. We compare soil moisture data from satellite observations, reanalysis and simulations from a state-of-the-art land surface model and analyze relationships between soil moisture and precipitation anomalies in the different dataset. Other potential applications like model parameter optimization or model initialization are not investigated in the present study. In a detailed regional study, we show that ECVSM is capable to capture well the interannual and intraannual soil moisture and precipitation dynamics in the Sahelian region. Current deficits of the new dataset are critically discussed and summarized at the end of the paper to provide guidance for an appropriate usage of the ECVSM dataset for climate studies.

Description: Simultaneous estimation of model state variables and observation and forecast biases using a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3499-3521, 2013 Author(s): V. R. N. Pauwels, G. J. M. De Lannoy, H.-J. Hendricks Franssen, and H. Vereecken In this paper, we present a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter to estimate both observation and forecast bias in hydrologic models, in addition to state variables. The biases are estimated using the discrete Kalman filter, and the state variables using the ensemble Kalman filter. A key issue in this multi-component assimilation scheme is the exact partitioning of the difference between observation and forecasts into state, forecast bias and observation bias updates. Here, the error covariances of the forecast bias and the unbiased states are calculated as constant fractions of the biased state error covariance, and the observation bias error covariance is a function of the observation prediction error covariance. In a series of synthetic experiments, focusing on the assimilation of discharge into a rainfall-runoff model, it is shown that both static and dynamic observation and forecast biases can be successfully estimated. The results indicate a strong improvement in the estimation of the state variables and resulting discharge as opposed to the use of a bias-unaware ensemble Kalman filter. Furthermore, minimal code modification in existing data assimilation software is needed to implement the method. The results suggest that a better performance of data assimilation methods should be possible if both forecast and observation biases are taken into account.

Description: Influence of snow depth distribution on surface roughness in alpine terrain: a multi-scale approach The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4633-4680, 2013 Author(s): J. Veitinger, B. Sovilla, and R. S. Purves In alpine terrain, the snow covered winter surface deviates from its underlying summer terrain due to the progressive smoothing caused by snow accumulation. Terrain smoothing is believed to be an important factor in avalanche formation, avalanche dynamics and affects surface heat transfer, energy balance as well as snow depth distribution. To characterize the effect of snow on terrain we use the concept of roughness. Roughness is calculated for several snow surfaces and its corresponding underlying terrain for three alpine basins in the Swiss Alps characterized by low medium and high terrain roughness. To this end, elevation models of winter and summer terrain are derived from high-resolution (1 m) measurements performed by airborne and terrestrial LIDAR. We showed that on basin scale terrain smoothing not only depends on mean snow depth in the basin but also on its variability. Terrain smoothing can be modelled in function of mean snow depth and its standard deviation using a power law. However, a relationship between terrain smoothing and snow depth does not exist on a pixel scale. Further we demonstrated the high persistence of snow surface roughness even in between winter seasons. Those persistent patterns might be very useful to improve the representation of a winter terrain without modelling of the snow cover distribution. This can potentially improve avalanche release area definition and in the long term natural hazard management strategies.

Description: Land use change effects on runoff generation in a humid tropical montane cloud forest region Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3543-3560, 2013 Author(s): L. E. Muñoz-Villers and J. J. McDonnell While tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) provide critical hydrological services to downstream regions throughout much of the humid tropics, catchment hydrology and impacts associated with forest conversion in these ecosystems remain poorly understood. Here, we compare the annual, seasonal and event-scale streamflow patterns and runoff generation processes of three neighbouring headwater catchments in central Veracruz (eastern Mexico) with similar pedological and geological characteristics, but different land cover: old-growth TMCF, 20 yr-old naturally regenerating TMCF and a heavily grazed pasture. We used a 2 yr record of high resolution rainfall and stream flow data (2008–2010) in combination with stable isotope and chemical tracer data collected for a series of storms during a 6-week period of increasing antecedent wetness (wetting-up cycle). Our results showed that annual and seasonal streamflow patterns in the mature and secondary forest were similar. In contrast, the pasture showed a 10% higher mean annual streamflow, most likely because of a lower rainfall interception. During the wetting-up cycle, storm runoff ratios increased at all three catchments (from 11 to 54% for the mature forest, 7 to 52% for the secondary forest and 3 to 59% for the pasture). With the increasing antecedent wetness, hydrograph separation analysis showed progressive increases of pre-event water contributions to total stormflow (from 35 to 99% in the mature forest, 26 to 92% in the secondary forest and 64 to 97% in the pasture). At all three sites, rainfall-runoff responses were dominated by subsurface flow generation processes for the majority of storms. However, for the largest and most intense storm (typically occurring once every 2 yr), sampled under wet antecedent conditions, the event water contribution in the pasture (34% on average) was much higher than in the forests (5% on average), indicating that rainfall infiltration capacity of the pasture was exceeded. This result suggests that despite the high permeability of the volcanic soils and underlying substrate in this TMCF environment, the conversion of forest to pasture may lead to important changes in runoff generation processes during large and high intensity storms. On the other hand, our results also showed that 20 yr of natural regeneration may be enough to largely restore the original hydrological conditions of this TMCF.

Description: Using the nonlinear aquifer storage–discharge relationship to simulate the base flow of glacier- and snowmelt-dominated basins in northwest China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3577-3586, 2013 Author(s): R. Gan and Y. Luo Base flow is an important component in hydrological modeling. This process is usually modeled by using the linear aquifer storage–discharge relation approach, although the outflow from groundwater aquifers is nonlinear. To identify the accuracy of base flow estimates in rivers dominated by snowmelt and/or glacier melt in arid and cold northwestern China, a nonlinear storage–discharge relationship for use in SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) modeling was developed and applied to the Manas River basin in the Tian Shan Mountains. Linear reservoir models and a digital filter program were used for comparisons. Meanwhile, numerical analysis of recession curves from 78 river gauge stations revealed variation in the parameters of the nonlinear relationship. It was found that the nonlinear reservoir model can improve the streamflow simulation, especially for low-flow period. The higher Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, logarithmic efficiency, and volumetric efficiency, and lower percent bias were obtained when compared to the one-linear reservoir approach. The parameter b of the aquifer storage–discharge function varied mostly between 0.0 and 0.1, which is much smaller than the suggested value of 0.5. The coefficient a of the function is related to catchment properties, primarily the basin and glacier areas.

Description: Macropore flow of old water revisited: experimental insights from a tile-drained hillslope Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 103-118, 2013 Author(s): J. Klaus, E. Zehe, M. Elsner, C. Külls, and J. J. McDonnell The mechanisms allowing the rapid release of stored water to streams are poorly understood. Here we use a tile-drained field site to combine macroporous soils at the hillslope scale with the advantage of at least partly controlled lower boundary conditions. We performed a series of three irrigation experiments combining hydrometric measurements with stable isotope and bromide tracers to better understand macropore–matrix interactions and stored water release processes at the hillslope scale. Stable isotope concentrations were monitored in the irrigation water, the tile-drain discharge and the soil water before and after the experiment. Bromide was measured every 5–15 min in the tile-drain hydrograph. Different initial conditions for each experiment were used to examine how these influenced flow and transport. Different amounts of irrigation water were necessary to increase tile-drain discharge above the baseflow level. Hydrograph separation based on bromide data revealed that irrigation water contributions to peak tile-drain discharge were on the order of 20%. Oxygen-18 and deuterium data were consistent with the bromide data and showed that pre-event soil water contributed significantly to the tile-drain event flow. However, the isotopic composition of soil water converged towards the isotopic composition of irrigation water through the course of the experiment. Mixing calculations revealed that by the end of the irrigation experiments 20% of the soil water in the entire profile was irrigation water. The isotopic data showed that the pre-event water in the tile drain was mobilized in 20–40 cm soil depth where the macropore–matrix interaction leads to an initiation of macropore flow after a moisture threshold is exceeded.

Description: An approach to identify time consistent model parameters: sub-period calibration Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 149-161, 2013 Author(s): S. Gharari, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, and H. H. G. Savenije Conceptual hydrological models rely on calibration for the identification of their parameters. As these models are typically designed to reflect real catchment processes, a key objective of an appropriate calibration strategy is the determination of parameter sets that reflect a "realistic" model behavior. Previous studies have shown that parameter estimates for different calibration periods can be significantly different. This questions model transposability in time, which is one of the key conditions for the set-up of a "realistic" model. This paper presents a new approach that selects parameter sets that provide a consistent model performance in time. The approach consists of testing model performance in different periods, and selecting parameter sets that are as close as possible to the optimum of each individual sub-period. While aiding model calibration, the approach is also useful as a diagnostic tool, illustrating tradeoffs in the identification of time-consistent parameter sets. The approach is applied to a case study in Luxembourg using the HyMod hydrological model as an example.

Description: Streamflow droughts in the Iberian Peninsula between 1945 and 2005: spatial and temporal patterns Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 119-134, 2013 Author(s): J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, E. Morán-Tejeda, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, and J. I. López-Moreno In this study we analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of streamflow droughts in the Iberian Peninsula from 1945 to 2005. Streamflow series belonging to 187 homogeneously distributed gauging stations across the study area were used to develop a standardized streamflow index (SSI), which facilitated comparison among regimes and basins, regardless of streamflow magnitudes. A principal component analysis was performed to identify homogeneous hydrological regions having common features based on the temporal evolution of streamflows. Identification of drought events was carried out using a threshold level approach. We assessed the duration and magnitude of drought episodes and the changes that occurred between two contrasting periods for each hydrological region. The results showed a trend toward increased drought severity in the majority of regions. Drought duration, magnitude and spatial coverage were found to depend mainly on climatic conditions and the water storage strategies in each basin. In some basins these strategies have altered river regimes, and in others created a high level of dependence on storage and water transfer rates.

Description: High sensitivity of tidewater outlet glacier dynamics to shape The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 551-572, 2013 Author(s): E. M. Enderlin, I. M. Howat, and A. Vieli Variability in tidewater outlet glacier behavior under similar external forcing has been attributed to differences in outlet shape (i.e. bed elevation and width), but this dependence has not been investigated in detail. Here we use a numerical ice flow model to show that the dynamics of tidewater outlet glaciers under external forcing are highly sensitive to width and bed topography. Our sensitivity tests indicate that for glaciers with similar discharge, the trunks of wider glaciers and those grounded over deeper basal depressions tend to be closer to flotation, so that less dynamically induced thinning results in rapid, unstable retreat following a perturbation. The lag time between the onset of the perturbation and unstable retreat varies with outlet shape, which may help explain intra-regional variability in tidewater outlet glacier behavior. Further, because the perturbation response is dependent on the thickness relative to flotation, varying the bed topography within the range of observational uncertainty can result in either stable or unstable retreat due to the same perturbation. Thus, extreme care must be taken when interpreting the future behavior of actual glacier systems using numerical ice flow models that are not accompanied by comprehensive sensitivity analyses.

Description: Role of climate forecasts and initial conditions in developing streamflow and soil moisture forecasts in a rainfall–runoff regime Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 721-733, 2013 Author(s): T. Sinha and A. Sankarasubramanian Skillful seasonal streamflow forecasts obtained from climate and land surface conditions could significantly improve water and energy management. Since climate forecasts are updated on a monthly basis, we evaluate the potential in developing operational monthly streamflow forecasts on a continuous basis throughout the year. Further, basins in the rainfall–runoff regime critically depend on the forecasted precipitation in the upcoming months as opposed to snowmelt regimes where initial hydrological conditions (IHC) play a critical role. The goal of this study is to quantify the role of updated monthly precipitation forecasts and IHC in forecasting 6-month lead monthly streamflow and soil moisture for a rainfall–runoff mechanism dominated basin – Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, FL. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model is implemented with two forcings: (a) updated monthly precipitation forecasts from ECHAM4.5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) forced with sea surface temperature forecasts and (b) daily climatological ensembles. The difference in skill between the above two quantifies the improvements that could be attainable using the AGCM forecasts. Monthly retrospective streamflow forecasts are developed from 1981 to 2010 and streamflow forecasts estimated from the VIC model are also compared with those predicted by using the principal component regression (PCR) model. The mean square error (MSE) in predicting monthly streamflows, using the VIC model, are compared with the MSE of streamflow climatology under ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscilation) conditions as well as under normal years. Results indicate that VIC forecasts obtained using ECHAM4.5 are significantly better than VIC forecasts obtained using climatological ensembles and PCR models over 2–6 month lead time during winter and spring seasons in capturing streamflow variability and reduced mean square errors. However, at 1-month lead time, streamflow utilizing the climatological forcing scheme outperformed ECHAM4.5 based streamflow forecasts during winter and spring, indicating a dominant role of IHCs up to a 1-month lead time. During ENSO years, streamflow forecasts exhibit better skill even up to a six-month lead time. Comparisons of the seasonal soil moisture forecasts, developed using ECHAM4.5 forcings, with seasonal streamflows also show significant skill, up to a 6-month lead time, in the four seasons.

Description: Environmental flow assessments in estuaries based on an integrated multi-objective method Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 751-760, 2013 Author(s): T. Sun, J. Xu, and Z. F. Yang An integrated multi-objective method for environmental flow assessments was developed that considered variability of potential habitats as a critical factor in determining how ecosystems respond to hydrological alterations. Responses of habitat area, and the magnitude of those responses as influenced by salinity and water depth, were established and assessed according to fluctuations in river discharge and tidal currents. The requirements of typical migratory species during pivotal life-stage seasons (e.g., reproduction and juvenile growth) and natural flow variations were integrated into the flow-needs assessment. Critical environmental flows for a typical species were defined based on two primary objectives: (1) high level of habitat area and (2) low variability of habitat area. After integrating the water requirements for various species with the maximum acceptable discharge boundary, appropriate temporal limits of environmental flows for ecosystems were recommended. The method was applied in the Yellow River estuary in eastern Shandong province, China. Our results show that, while recommended environmental flows established with variability of potential habitats in mind may not necessarily benefit short-term survival of a typical resident organism on a limited temporal or spatial scale, they may encourage long-term, stable biodiversity and ecosystem health. Thus, short-term ecosystem losses may be compensated by significant long-term gains.

Description: Modelling soil temperature and moisture and corresponding seasonality of photosynthesis and transpiration in a boreal spruce ecosystem Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 735-749, 2013 Author(s): S. H. Wu and P.-E. Jansson Recovery of photosynthesis and transpiration is strongly restricted by low temperatures in air and/or soil during the transition period from winter to spring in boreal zones. The extent to which air temperature ( T a ) and soil temperature ( T s ) influence the seasonality of photosynthesis and transpiration of a boreal spruce ecosystem was investigated using a process-based ecosystem model (CoupModel) together with eddy covariance (EC) data from one eddy flux tower and nearby soil measurements at Knottåsen, Sweden. A Monte Carlo-based uncertainty method (GLUE) provided prior and posterior distributions of simulations representing a wide range of soil conditions and performance indicators. The simulated results showed sufficient flexibility to predict the measured cold and warm T s in the moist and dry plots around the eddy flux tower. Moreover, the model presented a general ability to describe both biotic and abiotic processes for the Norway spruce stand. The dynamics of sensible heat fluxes were well described by the corresponding latent heat fluxes and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 . The parameter ranges obtained are probably valid to represent regional characteristics of boreal conifer forests, but were not easy to constrain to a smaller range than that produced by the assumed prior distributions. Finally, neglecting the soil temperature response function resulted in fewer behavioural models and probably more compensatory errors in other response functions for regulating the seasonality of ecosystem fluxes.

Description: Influence of basin connectivity on sediment source, transport, and storage within the Mkabela Basin, South Africa Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 761-781, 2013 Author(s): J. R. Miller, G. Mackin, P. Lechler, M. Lord, and S. Lorentz The management of sediment and other non-point source (NPS) pollution has proven difficult, and requires a sound understanding of particle movement through the drainage system. The primary objective of this investigation was to obtain an understanding of NPS sediment source(s), transport, and storage within the Mkabela Basin, a representative agricultural catchment within the KwaZulu–Natal Midlands of eastern South Africa, by combining geomorphic, hydrologic and geochemical fingerprinting analyses. The Mkabela Basin can be subdivided into three distinct subcatchments that differ in their ability to transport and store sediment along the axial valley. Headwater (upper catchment) areas are characterized by extensive wetlands that act as significant sediment sinks. Mid-catchment areas, characterized by higher relief and valley gradients, exhibit few wetlands, but rather are dominated by a combination of alluvial and bedrock channels that are conducive to sediment transport. The lower catchment exhibits a low-gradient alluvial channel that is boarded by extensive riparian wetlands that accumulate large quantities of sediment (and NPS pollutants). Fingerprinting studies suggest that silt- and clay-rich layers found within wetland and reservoir deposits of the upper and upper-mid subcatchments are derived from the erosion of fine-grained, valley bottom soils frequently utilized as vegetable fields. Coarser-grained deposits within these wetlands and reservoirs result from the erosion of sandier hillslope soils extensively utilized for sugar cane, during relatively high magnitude runoff events that are capable of transporting sand-sized sediment off the slopes. Thus, the source of sediment to the axial valley varies as a function of sediment size and runoff magnitude. Sediment export from upper to lower catchment areas was limited until the early 1990s, in part because the upper catchment wetlands were hydrologically disconnected from lower parts of the watershed during low to moderate flood events. The construction of a drainage ditch through a previously unchanneled wetland altered the hydrologic connectivity of the catchment, allowing sediment to be transported from the headwaters to the lower basin where much of it was deposited within riparian wetlands. The axial drainage system is now geomorphically and hydrologically connected during events capable of overflowing dams located throughout the study basin. The study indicates that increased valley connectivity partly negated the positive benefits of controlling sediment/nutrient exports from the catchment by means of upland based, best management practices.

Description: A Bayesian joint probability post-processor for reducing errors and quantifying uncertainty in monthly streamflow predictions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 795-804, 2013 Author(s): P. Pokhrel, D. E. Robertson, and Q. J. Wang Hydrologic model predictions are often biased and subject to heteroscedastic errors originating from various sources including data, model structure and parameter calibration. Statistical post-processors are applied to reduce such errors and quantify uncertainty in the predictions. In this study, we investigate the use of a statistical post-processor based on the Bayesian joint probability (BJP) modelling approach to reduce errors and quantify uncertainty in streamflow predictions generated from a monthly water balance model. The BJP post-processor reduces errors through elimination of systematic bias and through transient errors updating. It uses a parametric transformation to normalize data and stabilize variance and allows for parameter uncertainty in the post-processor. We apply the BJP post-processor to 18 catchments located in eastern Australia and demonstrate its effectiveness in reducing prediction errors and quantifying prediction uncertainty.

Description: CREST-Snow Field Experiment: analysis of snowpack properties using multi-frequency microwave remote sensing data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 783-793, 2013 Author(s): T. Y. Lakhankar, J. Muñoz, P. Romanov, A. M. Powell, N. Y. Krakauer, W. B. Rossow, and R. M. Khanbilvardi The CREST-Snow Analysis and Field Experiment (CREST-SAFE) was carried out during January–March 2011 at the research site of the National Weather Service office, Caribou, ME, USA. In this experiment dual-polarized microwave (37 and 89 GHz) observations were accompanied by detailed synchronous observations of meteorology and snowpack physical properties. The objective of this long-term field experiment was to improve understanding of the effect of changing snow characteristics (grain size, density, temperature) under various meteorological conditions on the microwave emission of snow and hence to improve retrievals of snow cover properties from satellite observations. In this paper we present an overview of the field experiment and comparative preliminary analysis of the continuous microwave and snowpack observations and simulations. The observations revealed a large difference between the brightness temperature of fresh and aged snowpack even when the snow depth was the same. This is indicative of a substantial impact of evolution of snowpack properties such as snow grain size, density and wetness on microwave observations. In the early spring we frequently observed a large diurnal variation in the 37 and 89 GHz brightness temperature with small depolarization corresponding to daytime snowmelt and nighttime refreeze events. SNTHERM (SNow THERmal Model) and the HUT (Helsinki University of Technology) snow emission model were used to simulate snowpack properties and microwave brightness temperatures, respectively. Simulated snow depth and snowpack temperature using SNTHERM were compared to in situ observations. Similarly, simulated microwave brightness temperatures using the HUT model were compared with the observed brightness temperatures under different snow conditions to identify different states of the snowpack that developed during the winter season.

Description: Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet – Part 2: Projections The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 675-708, 2013 Author(s): T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2013) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB-elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9%) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0%) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the "no feedback" case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a~perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicates that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

Description: Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet – Part 1: Parameterisation The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 635-674, 2013 Author(s): T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB–elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling the two models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77° N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four "SMB lapse rates", gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CIs) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.54 (95% CI: −0.22 to 1.34) kg m −3 a −1 for the north, and 1.89 (1.03 to 2.61) kg m −3 a −1 for the south. Above the ELA the gradients are much smaller: 0.09 (−0.03 to 0.22) kg m −3 a −1 in the north, and 0.06 (−0.07 to 0.56) kg m −3 a −1 in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. Our statistically based approach allows us to make probabilistic assessments for the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on sea level projections. In a companion paper we use the best estimates and upper and lower CI bounds in five ice sheet models, and the full probability distributions in another, to adjust simulated SMB from MAR forced by two global climate models for the SRES A1B scenario (Edwards et al., 2013).

Description: Snowdrift modelling for Vestfonna ice cap, north-eastern Svalbard The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 709-741, 2013 Author(s): T. Sauter, M. Möller, R. Finkelnburg, M. Grabiec, D. Scherer, and C. Schneider The redistribution of snow by drifting and blowing snow frequently leads to an inhomogeneous snow mass distribution on larger ice caps. Together with the thermodynamic impact of drifting snow sublimation on the lower atmospheric boundary layer, these processes affect the glacier surface mass balance. This study provides a first quantification of snowdrift and sublimation of blowing and drifting snow on Vestfonna ice cap (Svalbard) by using the specifically designed "snow2blow" snowdrift model. The model is forced by atmospheric fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting model and resolves processes on a spatial resolution of 250 m. Comparison with radio-echo soudings and snow-pit measurements show that important local scale processes are resolved by the model and the overall snow accumulation pattern is reproduced. The findings indicate that there is a significant redistribution of snow mass from the interior of the ice cap to the surrounding areas and ice slopes. Drifting snow sublimation of suspended snow is found to be stronger during winter. It is concluded that both processes are strong enough to have a significant impact on glacier mass balance.

Description: Sensitivity of lake ice regimes to climate change in the nordic region The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 743-788, 2013 Author(s): S. Gebre, T. Boissy, and K. Alfredsen A one-dimensional process-based multi-year lake ice model, MyLake, was used to simulate lake ice phenology and annual maximum lake ice thickness for the Nordic region comprising Fennoscandia and the Baltic countries. The model was first tested and validated using observational meteorological forcing on a candidate lake (Lake Atnsjøen) and using downscaled ERA-40 reanalysis data set. To simulate ice conditions for the contemporary period of 1961–2000, the model was driven by gridded meteorological forcings from ERA-40 global reanalysis data downscaled to a 25 km resolution using the Rossby Center Regional Climate Model (RCA). The model was then forced with two future climate scenarios from the RCA driven by two different GCMs based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The two climate scenarios correspond to two future time periods namely the 2050s (2041–2070) and the 2080s (2071–2100). To take into account the influence of lake morphometry, simulations were carried out for four different hypothetical lake depths (5 m, 10 m, 20 m, 40 m) placed at each of the 3708 grid cells. Based on a comparison of the mean predictions in the future 30 yr periods with the control (1961–1990) period, ice cover durations in the region will be shortened by 1 to 11 weeks in 2041–2070, and 3 to 14 weeks in 2071–2100. Annual maximum lake ice thickness, on the other hand, will be reduced by a margin of up to 60 cm by 2041–2070 and up to 70 cm by 2071–2100. The simulated changes in lake ice characteristics revealed that the changes are less dependent on lake depths though there are slight differences. The results of this study provide a~regional perspective of anticipated changes in lake ice regimes due to climate warming across the study area by the middle and end of this century.

Description: Uncertainties and re-analysis of glacier mass balance measurements The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 789-839, 2013 Author(s): M. Zemp, E. Thibert, M. Huss, D. Stumm, C. Rolstad Denby, C. Nuth, S. U. Nussbaumer, G. Moholdt, A. Mercer, C. Mayer, P. C. Joerg, P. Jansson, B. Hynek, A. Fischer, H. Escher-Vetter, H. Elvehøy, and L. M. Andreassen Glacier-wide mass balance has been measured for more than sixty years and is widely used as an indicator of climate change and to assess the glacier contribution to runoff and sea level rise. Until present, comprehensive uncertainty assessments have rarely been carried out and mass balance data have often been applied using rough error estimation or without error considerations. In this study, we propose a framework for re-analyzing glacier mass balance series including conceptual and statistical toolsets for assessment of random and systematic errors as well as for validation and calibration (if necessary) of the glaciological with the geodetic balance results. We demonstrate the usefulness and limitations of the proposed scheme drawing on an analysis that comprises over 50 recording periods for a dozen glaciers and we make recommendations to investigators and users of glacier mass balance data. Reanalysis of glacier mass balance series needs to become a standard procedure for every monitoring programme to improve data quality and provide thorough uncertainty estimates.

Description: Gradually varied open-channel flow profiles normalized by critical depth and analytically solved by using Gaussian hypergeometric functions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 973-987, 2013 Author(s): C.-D. Jan and C.-L. Chen The equation of one-dimensional gradually varied flow (GVF) in sustaining and non-sustaining open channels is normalized using the critical depth, y c , and then analytically solved by the direct integration method with the use of the Gaussian hypergeometric function (GHF). The GHF-based solution so obtained from the y c -based dimensionless GVF equation is more useful and versatile than its counterpart from the GVF equation normalized by the normal depth, y n , because the GHF-based solutions of the y c -based dimensionless GVF equation for the mild (M) and adverse (A) profiles can asymptotically reduce to the y c -based dimensionless horizontal (H) profiles as y c / y n → 0. An in-depth analysis of the y c -based dimensionless profiles expressed in terms of the GHF for GVF in sustaining and adverse wide channels has been conducted to discuss the effects of y c / y n and the hydraulic exponent N on the profiles. This paper has laid the foundation to compute at one sweep the y c -based dimensionless GVF profiles in a series of sustaining and adverse channels, which have horizontal slopes sandwiched in between them, by using the GHF-based solutions.

Description: A model of hydrological and mechanical feedbacks of preferential fissure flow in a slow-moving landslide Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 947-959, 2013 Author(s): D. M. Krzeminska, T. A. Bogaard, J.-P. Malet, and L. P. H. van Beek The importance of hydrological processes for landslide activity is generally accepted. However, the relationship between precipitation, hydrological responses and movement is not straightforward. Groundwater recharge is mostly controlled by the hydrological material properties and the structure (e.g., layering, preferential flow paths such as fissures) of the unsaturated zone. In slow-moving landslides, differential displacements caused by the bedrock structure complicate the hydrological regime due to continuous opening and closing of the fissures, creating temporary preferential flow paths systems for infiltration and groundwater drainage. The consecutive opening and closing of fissure aperture control the formation of a critical pore water pressure by creating dynamic preferential flow paths for infiltration and groundwater drainage. This interaction may explain the seasonal nature of the slow-moving landslide activity, including the often observed shifts and delays in hydrological responses when compared to timing, intensity and duration of precipitation. The main objective of this study is to model the influence of fissures on the hydrological dynamics of slow-moving landslide and the dynamic feedbacks between fissures, hydrology and slope stability. For this we adapt the spatially distributed hydrological and slope stability model (STARWARS) to account for geotechnical and hydrological feedbacks, linking between hydrological response of the landside and the dynamics of the fissure network and applied the model to the hydrologically controlled Super-Sauze landslide (South French Alps).

Description: Impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on stream flow and sediment discharge in the Wei River basin, China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 961-972, 2013 Author(s): P. Gao, V. Geissen, C. J. Ritsema, X.-M. Mu, and F. Wang Reduced stream flow and increased sediment discharge are a major concern in the Yellow River basin of China, which supplies water for agriculture, industry and the growing populations located along the river. Similar concerns exist in the Wei River basin, which is the largest tributary of the Yellow River basin and comprises the highly eroded Loess Plateau. Better understanding of the drivers of stream flow and sediment discharge dynamics in the Wei River basin is needed for development of effective management strategies for the region and entire Yellow River basin. In this regard we analysed long-term trends for water and sediment discharge during the flood season in the Wei River basin, China. Stream flow and sediment discharge data for 1932 to 2008 from existing hydrological stations located in two subcatchments and at two points in the Wei River were analysed. Precipitation and air temperature data were analysed from corresponding meteorological stations. We identified change-points or transition years for the trends by the Pettitt method and, using double mass curves, we diagnosed whether they were caused by precipitation changes, human intervention, or both. We found significant decreasing trends for stream flow and sediment discharge during the flood season in both subcatchments and in the Wei River itself. Change-point analyses further revealed that transition years existed and that rapid decline in stream flow began in 1968 ( P 〈 0.01), and that sediment discharge began in 1981 ( P 〈 0.01) in the main river. In the two subcatchments, the transition years were 1985 ( P 〈 0.01) and 1994 ( P 〈 0.05) for water discharge, and 1978 and 1979 for sediment discharge ( P 〈 0.05), respectively. The impact of precipitation or human activity on the reduction amount after the transition years was estimated by double mass curves of precipitation vs. stream flow (sediment). For reductions in stream flow and sediment discharge, the contribution rate of human activity was found to be 82.80 and 95.56%, respectively, and was significantly stronger than the contribution rate of precipitation. This evidence clearly suggests that, in the absence of significant decreases in precipitation, strategies for managing the region need to focus on human activities to control erosion without restricting stream flow.

Description: An iterative inverse method to estimate basal topography and initialize ice flow models The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 873-920, 2013 Author(s): W. J. J. van Pelt, J. Oerlemans, C. H. Reijmer, R. Pettersson, V. A. Pohjola, E. Isaksson, and D. Divine We present and evaluate an inverse approach to reconstruct two-dimensional fields of bedrock topography and simultaneously initialize an ice flow model. The inverse method involves an iterative procedure in which an ice dynamical model (PISM) is run multiple times over a prescribed period, while being forced with space and time-dependent climate input. After every iteration bed heights are adjusted using information of the remaining misfit between observed and modeled surface topography. The inverse method is first applied in synthetic experiments with a constant climate forcing to verify convergence and robustness of the approach. In a next step, the inverse approach is applied to Nordenskiöldbreen, Svalbard, forced with height- and time-dependent climate input since 1300 AD. An L-curve stopping criterion is used to prevent overfitting. Validation against radar data reveals a high correlation (up to R = 0.89) between modeled and observed thicknesses. Remaining uncertainties can mainly be ascribed to inaccurate model physics, in particular uncertainty in the description of sliding. Results demonstrate the applicability of this inverse method to reconstruct the ice thickness distribution of glaciers and ice caps. In addition to reconstructing bedrock topography, the method provides a direct tool to initialize ice flow models for forecasting experiments. Application of the method is not constrained to a single model or glacier, indicating the potential to use the approach to compute the detailed thickness distribution of a single glacier, as well as the volume contained in a set of glaciers and ice caps.

Description: Cascading water underneath Wilkes Land, East Antarctic Ice Sheet, observed using altimetry and digital elevation models The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 841-871, 2013 Author(s): T. Flament, E. Berthier, and F. Rémy We describe a major subglacial lake drainage close to the ice divide in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, and the subsequent cascading of water underneath the ice sheet toward the coast. To analyze the event, we combined altimetry data from several sources and bedrock data. We estimated the total volume of water that drained from Lake Cook E2 by differencing digital elevation models (DEM) derived from ASTER and SPOT5 stereo-imagery. With 5.2 ± 0.5 km 3 , this is the largest single subglacial drainage event reported so far in Antarctica. Elevation differences between ICESat laser altimetry and the SPOT5 DEM indicate that the discharge lasted approximately 2 yr. A 13-m uplift of the surface, corresponding to a refilling of about 0.64 ± 0.32 km 3 , was observed between the end of the discharge in October 2008 and February 2012. Using Envisat radar altimetry, with its high 35-day temporal resolution, we monitored the subsequent filling and drainage of connected subglacial lakes located downstream. In particular, a transient temporal signal can be detected within the theoretical 500-km long flow paths computed with the BEDMAP2 data set. The volume of water traveling in this wave is in agreement with the volume that drained from Lake Cook E2 . These observations contribute to a better understanding of the water transport beneath the East Antarctic ice sheet.

Description: Identifying a parameterisation of the soil water retention curve from on-ground GPR measurements Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 611-618, 2013 Author(s): A. Dagenbach, J. S. Buchner, P. Klenk, and K. Roth We show the potential of on-ground Ground-Penetrating Radar (GPR) to identify the parameterisation of the soil water retention curve, i.e. its functional form, with a semi-quantitative analysis based on numerical simulations of the radar signal. An imbibition and drainage experiment has been conducted at the ASSESS-GPR site to establish a fluctuating water table, while an on-ground GPR antenna recorded traces over time at a fixed location. These measurements allow to identify and track the capillary fringe in the soil. The typical dynamics of soil water content with a transient water table can be deduced from the recorded radargrams. The characteristic reflections from the capillary fringes in model soils that are described by commonly used hydraulic parameterisations are investigated by numerical simulations. The parameterisations used are (i) full van Genuchten, (ii) simplified van Genuchten with m = 1 − 1/ n and (iii) Brooks–Corey. All three yield characteristically different reflections, which allows the identification of an appropriate parameterisation by comparing to the measured signals. We show that for the sand used here, these signals are not consistent with the commonly used simplified van Genuchten parameterisation with m = 1 − 1/ n .

Description: Three-dimensional monitoring of soil water content in a maize field using Electrical Resistivity Tomography Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 595-609, 2013 Author(s): L. Beff, T. Günther, B. Vandoorne, V. Couvreur, and M. Javaux A good understanding of the soil water content (SWC) distribution at the field scale is essential to improve the management of water, soil and crops. Recent studies proved that Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) opens interesting perspectives in the determination of the SWC distribution in 3 dimensions (3-D). This study was conducted (i) to check and validate how ERT is able to monitor SWC distribution in a maize field during the late growing season; and (ii) to investigate how maize plants and rainfall affect the dynamics of SWC distribution. Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) measurements were used to validate ERT-inverted SWC values. Evolution of water mass balance was also calculated to check whether ERT was capable of giving a reliable estimate of soil water stock evolution. It is observed that ERT was able to give the same average SWC as TDR ( R 2 = 0.98). In addition, ERT gives better estimates of the water stock than TDR thanks to its higher spatial resolution. The high resolution of ERT measurements also allows for the discrimination of SWC heterogeneities. The SWC distribution showed that alternation of maize rows and inter-rows was the main influencing factor of the SWC distribution. The drying patterns were linked to the root profiles, with drier zones under the maize rows. During short periods, with negligible rainfall, the SWC decrease took place mainly in the two upper soil horizons and in the inter-row area. In contrast, rainfall increased the SWC mostly under the maize rows and in the upper soil layer. Nevertheless, the total amount of rainfall during the growing season was not sufficient to modify the SWC patterns induced by the maize rows. During the experimental time, there was hardly any SWC redistribution from maize rows to inter-rows. Yet, lateral redistribution from inter-rows to maize rows induced by potential gradient generates SWC decrease in the inter-row area and in the deeper soil horizons.

Description: The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 619-635, 2013 Author(s): N. Köplin, B. Schädler, D. Viviroli, and R. Weingartner Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios were derived from ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project. Their respective temperature and precipitation changes between the scenario period (2074–2095) and the control period (1984–2005) were used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest) was assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA). Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland were analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0–51%) and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12–55% of the catchment area). The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as changes in evaporation or soil moisture are concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchments with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in this study, though, is the climate scenario and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in the impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e., a humid, mid-latitude mountainous environment. They might be different for regions where the evaporation is a major component of the water balance, for example. Nevertheless, a hydrological climate-impact study that assesses the additional impacts of forest and glacier change is new so far and provides insight into the question whether or not it is necessary to account for land cover changes as part of climate change impacts on hydrological systems.

Description: An inventory of glacier changes between 1973 and 2011 for the Geladandong Mountain area, China The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 507-531, 2013 Author(s): J. Zhang, D. Braaten, X. Li, J. She, and F. Tao The snow and ice of the Geladangong Mountain area supply the headwaters of the Yangtze River, and long-term changes to glaciers and ice masses in this region due to a warming climate are of great concern. An inventory of glacier boundaries and changes over decades for the Geladandong Mountain area in China has been conducted using remote sensing imagery from Landsat (MSS, TM, ETM+), CERBES CCD, and GIS techniques. Variations in glacier extent has been measured using a~series of digital images since 1973, including Landsat MSS in 1973, Landsat TM in 1992, Landsat ETM+ in 2004, and CBERS CCD in 2011. All Landsat data are snow-free outside the glacier boundaries, allowing an unsupervised classification method to be used to extract glacier area. For the CBERS CCD data, some areas were covered by clouds and snow, requiring an initial unsupervised classification method to divide glacier, clouds and snow from other land types, followed by a supervised visual interpretation to extract glacier area. The results show a decrease in glacier ice cover in the study area during the past 38 yr. From 1973 to 2011, glacier area decreased from 107 105 hectares to 94 220 hectares, or a change of −12%. The speed at which ice cover is being lost has been decreasing during the past 38 yr. The rate of glacier area loss was 0.47% yr −1 from 1973–1992, 0.19% yr −1 from 1992–2004, and 0.14% yr −1 from 2004–2011. While most of the glaciers are shrinking, some are expanding. For the 1973 to 2004 period, retreating glaciers exposed 14 447 hectares of land, and advancing glaciers spread over 2682 hectares that were not covered by ice in 1973. The net glacier area decrease is 11 765 hectares from 1973–2004. For the 1973 to 2011 period, glaciers expanded over 3791 hectares, and retreated from 16 504 hectares.

Description: Agricultural groundwater management in the Upper Bhima Basin, India: current status and future scenarios Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 507-517, 2013 Author(s): L. Surinaidu, C. G. D. Bacon, and P. Pavelic The basaltic aquifers of the Upper Bhima River basin in southern India are heavily utilized for small-scale agriculture but face increasing demand-related pressures along with uncertainty associated with climate change impacts. To evaluate likely groundwater resource impacts over the coming decades, a regional groundwater flow model for the basin was developed. Model predictions associated with different climate change and abstraction scenarios indicate that the continuation of current rates of abstraction would lead to significant groundwater overdraft, with groundwater elevations predicted to fall by −6 m over the next three decades. Groundwater elevations can however be stabilized, but would require 20–30% of the mean surface water discharge from the basin to be recharged to groundwater, along with reductions in pumping (5–10%) brought about by improved water efficiency practices and/or shifts towards lower-water use crops. Modest reductions in pumping alone cannot stabilize groundwater levels; targeted conjunctive use and improved water use efficiency are also needed.

Description: Characterizing supraglacial lake drainage and freezing on the Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 475-505, 2013 Author(s): N. Selmes, T. Murray, and T. D. James The behaviour of supraglacial lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet has attracted a great deal of focus, specifically with regard to their fast drainage through hydrofracturing to the ice sheet base. However, a previous study has shown that this mode of drainage accounts for only 13% of the lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet. No published work to date has studied what happens to those lakes that do not drain suddenly. We present here three possible modes by which lakes can disappear from the ice sheet, which will have strongly contrasting effects on glacial dynamics and the ice sheet water budget. Around half of all supraglacial lakes observed persisted through the melt season and froze at the end of summer. A third drained slowly, which we interpret to be a result of incision of the supraglacial lake exit-channel. The fate of 7% of lakes could not be observed due to cloud cover, and the remainder drained suddenly. Both fast and slow lake drainage types are absent at higher elevations where lakes tend to freeze despite having similar or longer life spans to lakes at lower elevations, suggesting the mechanisms of drainage are inhibited. Groups of neighbouring lakes were observed to drain suddenly on the same day suggesting a common trigger mechanism for drainage initiation. We find that great care must be taken when interpreting remotely sensed observations of lake drainage, as fast and slow lake drainage can easily be confused if the temporal resolution used is too coarse.

Description: Mesoscale connectivity through a natural levee Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 691-704, 2013 Author(s): A. E. Newman and R. F. Keim Natural levees are potentially locally important zones of lateral seepage between stream channels and floodplain backswamps, because their relatively coarser soils provide pathways of high hydraulic conductivity in an otherwise low conductivity system. Therefore, understanding the rates and mechanisms of subsurface exchange of water and solutes through natural levees may be necessary for understanding biogeochemical cycling in floodplains. We measured imposed hydraulic gradients and solute tracers in 19 shallow monitoring wells within a 580 m 3 volume of natural levee in the Atchafalaya Basin, Louisiana. We modeled residence time distributions of pressure and tracers using a simple linear system to quantify spatially variable transport velocities and infer dominant flow mechanisms at a mesoscale. The spatial mean velocity of pressure transport was faster than the mean velocity of tracer transport by two orders of magnitude (1.7 × 10 −2 and 4.6 × 10 −4 m s −1 , respectively), and the variance of pressure velocities was less than the variance of tracer velocities by seven orders of magnitude (1.4 × 10 4 min 2 and 7.9 × 10 11 min 2 , respectively). Higher spatial variability of tracer velocities compared to pressure velocities indicates different functioning mechanisms of mass versus energy transport and suggests preferential flow. Effective hydraulic conductivities, which ranged in magnitude from 10 −1 to 10 3 m d −1 , were higher than would be predicted by soil texture. We conclude that, in this fine-grained system, preferential flow paths control water and solute exchange through natural levees. These findings are important for future studies of water and solute cycling in riverine wetlands, and rates of exchange may be particularly useful for modeling water and nutrient budgets in similar systems.

Description: An effective depression filling algorithm for DEM-based 2-D surface flow modelling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 495-505, 2013 Author(s): D. Zhu, Q. Ren, Y. Xuan, Y. Chen, and I. D. Cluckie The surface runoff process in fluvial/pluvial flood modelling is often simulated employing a two-dimensional (2-D) diffusive wave approximation described by grid based digital elevation models (DEMs). However, this approach may cause potential problems when using the 2-D surface flow model which exchanges flows through adjacent cells, with conventional sink removal algorithms which also allow for flow exchange along diagonal directions, due to the existence of artificial depression in DEMs. In this paper, we propose an effective method for filling artificial depressions in DEM so that the problem can be addressed. We firstly analyse two types of depressions in DEMs and demonstrate the issues caused by the current depression filling algorithms using the surface flow simulations from the MIKE SHE model built for a medium-sized basin in Southeast England. The proposed depression-filling algorithm for 2-D overland flow modelling is applied and evaluated by comparing the simulated flows at the outlet of the catchment represented by DEMs at various resolutions (50 m, 100 m and 200 m). The results suggest that the existence of depressions in DEMs can substantially influence the overland flow estimation and the new depression filling algorithm is shown to be effective in tackling this issue based upon the comparison of simulations for sink-dominated and sink-free DEMs, especially in the areas with relatively flat topography.

Description: Improving statistical forecasts of seasonal streamflows using hydrological model output Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 579-593, 2013 Author(s): D. E. Robertson, P. Pokhrel, and Q. J. Wang Statistical methods traditionally applied for seasonal streamflow forecasting use predictors that represent the initial catchment condition and future climate influences on future streamflows. Observations of antecedent streamflows or rainfall commonly used to represent the initial catchment conditions are surrogates for the true source of predictability and can potentially have limitations. This study investigates a hybrid seasonal forecasting system that uses the simulations from a dynamic hydrological model as a predictor to represent the initial catchment condition in a statistical seasonal forecasting method. We compare the skill and reliability of forecasts made using the hybrid forecasting approach to those made using the existing operational practice of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 21 catchments in eastern Australia. We investigate the reasons for differences. In general, the hybrid forecasting system produces forecasts that are more skilful than the existing operational practice and as reliable. The greatest increases in forecast skill tend to be (1) when the catchment is wetting up but antecedent streamflows have not responded to antecedent rainfall, (2) when the catchment is drying and the dominant source of antecedent streamflow is in transition between surface runoff and base flow, and (3) when the initial catchment condition is near saturation intermittently throughout the historical record.

Description: An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 565-578, 2013 Author(s): J. A. Velázquez, J. Schmid, S. Ricard, M. J. Muerth, B. Gauvin St-Denis, M. Minville, D. Chaumont, D. Caya, R. Ludwig, and R. Turcotte Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic 3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e., lumped, semi distributed and distributed models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada) and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by global climate models over a reference (1971–2000) and a future (2041–2070) period. The results show that, for our hydrological model ensemble, the choice of model strongly affects the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model.

Description: Ground-penetrating radar insight into a coastal aquifer: the freshwater lens of Borkum Island Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 519-531, 2013 Author(s): J. Igel, T. Günther, and M. Kuntzer Freshwater lenses, as important resource for drinking water, are sensitive to climate changes and sea level rise. To simulate this impact on the groundwater systems, hydraulic subsurface models have to be designed. Geophysical techniques can provide information for generating realistic models. The aim of our work is to show how ground-penetrating radar (GPR) investigations can contribute to such hydrological simulations. In the pilot area, Borkum island, GPR was used to map the shape of the groundwater table (GWT) and to characterise the aquifer. In total, 20 km of constant offset (CO) profiles were measured with centre frequencies of 80 and 200 MHz. Wave velocities were determined by common midpoint (CMP) measurements and vertical radar profiling (VRP) in a monitoring well. The 80 MHz CO data show a clear reflection at the groundwater table, whereas the reflection is weaker for the 200 MHz data. After correcting the GPR water tables for the capillary rise, they are in good accordance with the pressure heads of the observation wells in the area. In the centre of the island, the groundwater table is found up to 3.5 m above sea level, however it is lower towards the coastline and marshland. Some local depressions are observed in the region of dune valleys and around pumping stations of the local water supplier. GPR also reveals details within the sediments and highly-permeable aeolian sands can be distinguished from less-permeable marine sediments. Further, a silt loam layer below the water table could be mapped on a large area. The reflection characteristics indicates scattered erosion channels in this layer that cause it to be an aquitard with some leakage. GPR provides a high resolution map of the groundwater table and insight into the stratigraphy of the sediments and their hydraulic properties. This is valuable complementary information to the observation of sparsely distributed monitoring wells as input to hydraulic simulation.

Description: What can flux tracking teach us about water age distribution patterns and their temporal dynamics? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 533-564, 2013 Author(s): M. Hrachowitz, H. Savenije, T. A. Bogaard, D. Tetzlaff, and C. Soulsby The complex interactions of runoff generation processes underlying the hydrological response of streams remain not entirely understood at the catchment scale. Extensive research has demonstrated the utility of tracers for both inferring flow path distributions and constraining model parameterizations. While useful, the common use of linearity assumptions, i.e. time invariance and complete mixing, in these studies provides only partial understanding of actual process dynamics. Here we use long-term (

Description: Natural vs. artificial groundwater recharge, quantification through inverse modeling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 637-650, 2013 Author(s): H. Hashemi, R. Berndtsson, M. Kompani-Zare, and M. Persson Estimating the change in groundwater recharge from an introduced artificial recharge system is important in order to evaluate future water availability. This paper presents an inverse modeling approach to quantify the recharge contribution from both an ephemeral river channel and an introduced artificial recharge system based on floodwater spreading in arid Iran. The study used the MODFLOW-2000 to estimate recharge for both steady- and unsteady-state conditions. The model was calibrated and verified based on the observed hydraulic head in observation wells and model precision, uncertainty, and model sensitivity were analyzed in all modeling steps. The results showed that in a normal year without extreme events, the floodwater spreading system is the main contributor to recharge with 80% and the ephemeral river channel with 20% of total recharge in the studied area. Uncertainty analysis revealed that the river channel recharge estimation represents relatively more uncertainty in comparison to the artificial recharge zones. The model is also less sensitive to the river channel. The results show that by expanding the artificial recharge system, the recharge volume can be increased even for small flood events, while the recharge through the river channel increases only for major flood events.

Description: Automated global water mapping based on wide-swath orbital synthetic-aperture radar Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 651-663, 2013 Author(s): R. S. Westerhoff, M. P. H. Kleuskens, H. C. Winsemius, H. J. Huizinga, G. R. Brakenridge, and C. Bishop This paper presents an automated technique which ingests orbital synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) imagery and outputs surface water maps in near real time and on a global scale. The service anticipates future open data dissemination of water extent information using the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1 data. The classification methods used are innovative and practical and automatically calibrated to local conditions per 1 × 1° tile. For each tile, a probability distribution function in the range between being covered with water or being dry is established based on a long-term SAR training dataset. These probability distributions are conditional on the backscatter and the incidence angle. In classification mode, the probability of water coverage per pixel of 1 km × 1 km is calculated with the input of the current backscatter – incidence angle combination. The overlap between the probability distributions of a pixel being wet or dry is used as a proxy for the quality of our classification. The service has multiple uses, e.g. for water body dynamics in times of drought or for urgent inundation extent determination during floods. The service generates data systematically: it is not an on-demand service activated only for emergency response, but instead is always up-to-date and available. We validate its use in flood situations using Envisat ASAR information during the 2011 Thailand floods and the Pakistan 2010 floods and perform a first merge with a NASA near real time water product based on MODIS optical satellite imagery. This merge shows good agreement between these independent satellite-based water products.

Description: Modelling monthly precipitation with circulation weather types for a dense network of stations over Iberia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 665-678, 2013 Author(s): N. Cortesi, R. M. Trigo, J. C. Gonzalez-Hidalgo, and A. M. Ramos Precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) is highly variable and shows large spatial contrasts between wet mountainous regions to the north, and dry regions in the inland plains and southern areas. In this work, we modelled the relationship between atmospheric circulation weather types (WTs) and monthly precipitation for the wet half of the year (October to May) using a 10 km grid derived from a high-density dataset for the IP (3030 precipitation series, overall mean density one station each 200 km 2 ). We detected two spatial gradients in the relationship between WTs and precipitation. The percentage of monthly precipitation explained by WTs varies from northwest (higher variance explained) to southeast (lower variance explained). Additionally, in the IP the number of WTs that contribute significantly to monthly precipitation increase systematically from east to west. Generally speaking, the model performance is better to the west than to the east where the WTs approach produce the less accurate results. We applied the WTs modelling approach to reconstruct the long-term precipitation time series for three major stations of Iberia (Lisbon, Madrid, Valencia).

Description: Joint impact of rainfall and tidal level on flood risk in a coastal city with a complex river network: a case study of Fuzhou City, China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 679-689, 2013 Author(s): J. J. Lian, K. Xu, and C. Ma Coastal cities are particularly vulnerable to flood under multivariable conditions, such as heavy precipitation, high sea levels, and storms. The combined effect of multiple sources and the joint probability of extremes should be considered to assess and manage flood risk better. This paper aims to study the combined effect of rainfall and the tidal level of the receiving water body on flood probability and severity in Fuzhou City, which has a complex river network. Flood severity under a range of precipitation intensities, with return periods (RPs) of 5 yr to 100 yr, and tidal levels was assessed through a hydrodynamic model verified by data observed during Typhoon Longwang in 2005. According to the percentages of the river network where flooding occurred, the threshold conditions for flood severity were estimated in two scenarios: with and without working pumps. In Fuzhou City, working pumps efficiently reduce flood risk from precipitation within a 20-yr RP. However, the pumps may not work efficiently when rainfall exceeds a 100-yr RP because of the limited conveyance capacity of the river network. Joint risk probability was estimated through the optimal copula. The joint probability of rainfall and tidal level both exceeding their threshold values is very low, and the greatest threat in Fuzhou comes from heavy rainfall. However, the tidal level poses an extra risk of flood. Given that this extra risk is ignored in the design of flood defense in Fuzhou, flood frequency and severity may be higher than understood during design.

Description: Spectral reflectance of solar light from dirty snow: a simple theoretical model and its validation The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 533-550, 2013 Author(s): A. Kokhanovsky A simple analytical equation for the snow albedo as the function of snow grain size, soot concentration, and soot mass absorption coefficient is presented. This simple equation can be used in climate models to assess the influence of snow pollution on snow albedo. It is shown that the squared logarithm of the albedo (in the visible) is directly proportional to the soot concentration. A new method of the determination of the soot mass absorption coefficient in snow is proposed. The equations derived are applied to a dusty snow layer as well.

Description: Impact of elevation and weather patterns on the isotopic composition of precipitation in a tropical montane rainforest Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 409-419, 2013 Author(s): D. Windhorst, T. Waltz, E. Timbe, H.-G. Frede, and L. Breuer This study presents the spatial and temporal variability of δ 18 O and δ 2 H isotope signatures in precipitation of a south Ecuadorian montane cloud forest catchment (San Francisco catchment). From 2 September to 25 December 2010, event sampling of open rainfall was conducted along an altitudinal transect (1800 to 2800 m a.s.l.) to investigate possible effects of altitude and weather conditions on the isotope signature. The spatial variability is mainly affected by the altitude effect. The event based δ 18 O altitude effect for the study area averages −0.22‰ × 100 m −1 (δ 2 H: −1.12‰ × 100 m −1 ). The temporal variability is mostly controlled by prevailing air masses. Precipitation during the times of prevailing southeasterly trade winds is significantly enriched in heavy isotopes compared to precipitation during other weather conditions. In the study area, weather during austral winter is commonly controlled by southeasterly trade winds. Since the Amazon Basin contributes large amounts of recycled moisture to these air masses, trade wind-related precipitation is enriched in heavy isotopes. We used deuterium excess to further evaluate the contribution of recycled moisture to precipitation. Analogously to the δ 18 O and δ 2 H values, deuterium excess is significantly higher in trade wind-related precipitation. Consequently, it is assumed that evaporated moisture is responsible for high concentrations of heavy isotopes during austral winter.

Description: Local sensitivity analysis for compositional data with application to soil texture in hydrologic modelling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 461-478, 2013 Author(s): L. Loosvelt, H. Vernieuwe, V. R. N. Pauwels, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest Compositional data, such as soil texture, are hard to deal with in the geosciences as standard statistical methods are often inappropriate to analyse this type of data. Especially in sensitivity analysis, the closed character of the data is often ignored. To that end, we developed a method to assess the local sensitivity of a model output with resect to a compositional model input. We adapted the finite difference technique such that the different parts of the input are perturbed simultaneously while the closed character of the data is preserved. This method was applied to a hydrologic model and the sensitivity of the simulated soil moisture content to local changes in soil texture was assessed. Based on a high number of model runs, in which the soil texture was varied across the entire texture triangle, we identified zones of high sensitivity in the texture triangle. In such zones, the model output uncertainty induced by the discrepancy between the scale of measurement and the scale of model application, is advised to be reduced through additional data collection. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis provided more insight into the hydrologic model behaviour as it revealed how the model sensitivity is related to the shape of the soil moistureretention curve.

Description: An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 445-452, 2013 Author(s): A. AghaKouchak, N. Nakhjiri, and E. Habib This paper presents the hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation) are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI) and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity. HBV-Ensemble was administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of uncertainty in hydrological modeling.

Description: A universal calibration function for determination of soil moisture with cosmic-ray neutrons Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 453-460, 2013 Author(s): T. E. Franz, M. Zreda, R. Rosolem, and T. P. A. Ferre A cosmic-ray soil moisture probe is usually calibrated locally using soil samples collected within its support volume. But such calibration may be difficult or impractical, for example when soil contains stones, in presence of bedrock outcrops, in urban environments, or when the probe is used as a rover. Here we use the neutron transport code MCNPx with observed soil chemistries and pore water distribution to derive a universal calibration function that can be used in such environments. Reasonable estimates of pore water content can be made from neutron intensity measurements and by using measurements of the other hydrogen pools (water vapor, soil lattice water, soil organic carbon, and biomass). Comparisons with independent soil moisture measurements at one cosmic-ray probe site and, separately, at 35 sites, show that the universal calibration function explains more than 79% of the total variability within each dataset, permitting accurate isolation of the soil moisture signal from the measured neutron intensity signal. In addition the framework allows for any of the other hydrogen pools to be separated from the neutron intensity measurements, which may be useful for estimating changes in biomass, biomass water, or exchangeable water in complex environments.

Description: A combined approach of remote sensing and airborne electromagnetics to determine the volume of polynya sea ice in the Laptev Sea The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 441-473, 2013 Author(s): L. Rabenstein, T. Krumpen, S. Hendricks, C. Koeberle, C. Haas, and J. A. Hoelemann A combined interpretation of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images and helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) sea-ice thickness data has provided an estimate of sea-ice volume formed in Laptev Sea polynyas during the winter of 2007/08. The evolution of the surveyed sea-ice areas, which were formed between late December 2007 and middle April 2008, was tracked using a series of SAR images with a sampling interval of 2–3 days. Approximately 160 km of HEM data recorded in April 2008 provided sea-ice thicknesses along profiles that transected sea-ice varying in age from 1–116 days. For the volume estimates, thickness information along the HEM profiles was extrapolated to zones of the same age. The error of areal mean thickness information was estimated to be between 0.2 m for younger ice and up to 1.55 m for older ice, with the primary error source being the spatially limited HEM coverage. Our results have demonstrated that the modal thicknesses and mean thicknesses of level ice correlated with the sea-ice age, but that varying dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice growth conditions resulted in a rather heterogeneous sea-ice thickness distribution on scales of tens of kilometers. Taking all uncertainties into account, total sea-ice area and volume produced within the entire surveyed area were 52 650 km 2 and 93.6 ± 26.6 km 3 . The surveyed polynya contributed 2.0 ± 0.5% of the sea-ice produced throughout the Arctic during the 2007/08 winter. The SAR-HEM volume estimate compares well with the 112 km 3 ice production calculated with a high resolution ocean sea-ice model. Measured modal and mean-level ice thicknesses correlate with calculated freezing-degree-day thicknesses with a factor of 0.87–0.89, which was too low to justify the assumption of homogeneous thermodynamic growth conditions in the area, or indicates a strong dynamic thickening of level ice by rafting of even thicker ice.

Description: Indirect downscaling of hourly precipitation based on atmospheric circulation and temperature Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 4851-4863, 2013 Author(s): F. Beck and A. Bárdossy The main source of information on future climate conditions are global circulation models (GCMs). While the various GCMs agree on an increase of surface temperature, the predictions for precipitation exhibit high spread among the models, especially in shorter-than-daily temporal resolution. This paper presents a method to predict regional distributions of the hourly rainfall depth based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the GCM. It is based on a fuzzy logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th-century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. For the study region in southwestern Germany ECHAM5 predicts that the summers will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades. However, the results are yet to be confirmed by further \mbox{investigation} based on other GCMs.

Description: Regional GRACE-based estimates of water mass variations over Australia: validation and interpretation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 4925-4939, 2013 Author(s): L. Seoane, G. Ramillien, F. Frappart, and M. Leblanc Time series of regional 2° × 2° Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) solutions have been computed from 2003 to 2011 with a 10-day resolution by using an energy integral method over Australia (112° E–156° E; 44° S–10° S). This approach uses the dynamical orbit analysis of GRACE Level 1 measurements, and specially accurate along-track K-band range rate (KBRR) residuals with a 1 μm s −1 level of errors, to estimate the total water mass over continental regions. The advantages of regional solutions are a significant reduction of GRACE aliasing errors (i.e. north–south stripes) providing a more accurate estimation of water mass balance for hydrological applications. In this paper, the validation of these regional solutions over Australia is presented, as well as their ability to describe water mass change as a response of climate forcings such as El Niño. Principal component analysis of GRACE-derived total water storage (TWS) maps shows spatial and temporal patterns that are consistent with independent data sets (e.g. rainfall, climate index and in situ observations). Regional TWS maps show higher spatial correlations with in situ water table measurements over Murray–Darling drainage basin (80–90%), and they offer a better localization of hydrological structures than classical GRACE global solutions (i.e. Level 2 Groupe de Recherche en Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS)) products and 400 km independent component analysis solutions as a linear combination of GRACE solutions provided by different centers.

Description: Comment on the application of the Szilagyi–Jozsa advection–aridity model for estimating actual terrestrial evapotranspiration in "Estimating actual, potential, reference crop and pan evaporation using standard meteorological data: a pragmatic synthesis" by McMahon et al. (2013) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 4865-4867, 2013 Author(s): T. A. McMahon, M. C. Peel, and J. Szilagyi In the paper by McMahon et al. (2013, supplementary sections S8 and S19, worked example 8), the Szilagyi–Jozsa advection–aridity model (Szilagyi, 2007; Szilagyi and Jozsa, 2008) was not applied in the worked example as intended by author J. Szilagyi. This commentary seeks to clarify the issue and provide the correct procedure.

Description: Should we use a simple or complex model for moisture recycling and atmospheric moisture tracking? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 4869-4884, 2013 Author(s): R. J. van der Ent, O. A. Tuinenburg, H.-R. Knoche, H. Kunstmann, and H. H. G. Savenije This paper compares state-of-the-art atmospheric moisture tracking models. Such models are typically used to study the water component of coupled land and atmosphere models, in particular quantifying moisture recycling and the source-sink relations between evaporation and precipitation. There are several atmospheric moisture tracking methods in use. However, depending on the level of aggregation, the assumptions made and the level of detail, the performance of these methods may differ substantially. In this paper, we compare three methods. The RCM-tag method uses highly accurate 3-D water tracking (including phase transitions) directly within a regional climate model (online), while the other two methods (WAM and 3D-T) use a posteriori (offline) water vapour tracking. The original version of WAM is a single-layer model, while 3D-T is a multi-layer model, but both make use the "well-mixed" assumption for evaporation and precipitation. The a posteriori models are faster and more flexible, but less accurate than online moisture tracking with RCM-tag. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the a posteriori models, we tagged evaporated water from Lake Volta in West Africa and traced it to where it precipitates. It is found that the strong wind shear in West Africa is the main cause of errors in the a posteriori models. The number of vertical layers and the initial release height of tagged water in the model are found to have the most significant influences on the results. With this knowledge small improvements have been made to the a posteriori models. It appeared that expanding WAM to a 2-layer model, or a lower release height in 3D-T, led to significantly better results. Finally, we introduced a simple metric to assess wind shear globally and give recommendations about when to use which model. The "best" method, however, very much depends on the research question, the spatial extent under investigation, as well as the available computational power.

Description: Statistical analysis to characterize transport of nutrients in groundwater near an abandoned feedlot Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 4897-4906, 2013 Author(s): P. Gbolo and P. Gerla Surface water from a lagoon and groundwater samples from 17 wells within and near an abandoned feedlot in northwestern Minnesota, USA, were analyzed for carbon, nutrients, and field parameters. The feedlot is surrounded by wetlands that act as receptors of nutrients from the feedlot. Q- and R-mode multivariate analyses performed on total carbon (TC), inorganic carbon (IC), total organic carbon (TOC), nitrite-nitrogen (NO 2 -N), nitrate-nitrogen (NO 3 -N), ammonium-nitrogen (NH 4 -N), soluble or dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), and total phosphorus (TP) indicated three groups of the chemical species, which reflected variability in groundwater chemistry. Factor analysis indicated approximately 82% of the variability in factor 1 was caused by TC, IC, TOC, and DRP, while in factor 2 approximately 79% of the variability was caused by NO 2 -N, NO 3 -N, and TP. In factor 3, only NH 4 -N contributed 31% of the variability. Groundwater isotope and spatial distribution analysis indicated reduced nitrate concentration from the source to the wetlands, with variation in NO 2 -N, NO 3 -N, and NH 4 -N concentrations attributed to the plant nutrient uptake, high rate of denitrification and/or the dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium. This study indicated the value of multivariate analyses in characterizing variability in groundwater quality.