ALBERT

Beschreibung:    Natural hazard assessments are always subject to uncertainties due to missing knowledge about the complexity of hazardous processes as well as their natural variability. Decision-makers in the field of natural hazard management need to understand the concept, components, sources, and implications of existing uncertainties in order to reach informed and transparent decisions. Until now, however, only few hazard maps include uncertainty visualizations which would be much needed for an enhanced communication among experts and decision-makers in order to make informed decisions possible. In this paper, an analysis of how uncertainty is currently treated and communicated by Swiss natural hazards experts is presented. The conducted expert survey confirmed that the communication of uncertainty has to be enhanced, possibly with the help of uncertainty visualizations. However, in order to visualize the spatial characteristics of uncertainty, existing uncertainties need to be quantified. This challenge is addressed by the exemplary simulation of a snow avalanche event using a deterministic model and quantified uncertainties with a sensitivity analysis. Suitable visualization methods for the resulting spatial variability of the uncertainties are suggested, and the advantages and disadvantages of their implementation in an interactive cartographic information system are discussed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9864-y Authors Melanie Kunz, Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems, Institute for Spatial and Landscape Planning, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland Lorenz Hurni, Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    The present work addresses the problem of lack of coordination between policies and actors with joint competence for risk management, i.e., civil protection, spatial planning, and sectoral planning (e.g., forest policy in the case of forest fire risk). Spatial planning in particular is assigned a minor or no role at all though it might perfectly operate as the coordinating policy platform; the reason is that spatially relevant analysis and policy guidance is an omnipresent component of the risk management cycle. However, disconnected risk relevant policies turning a blind eye to spatial planning might cause several adverse repercussions: Breaks in the response-preparedness-prevention-remediation chain (which should function as a continuum), minimal attention to prevention, risk expansion and growth instead of mitigation, lack of synergies between involved actors as well as duplicated or even diverging measures and funding. The authors bear witness to the above suggestions by examining three cases of European (regional and local) risk management systems faced with failures when confronting natural hazards (floods and forest fires). These three systems are embedded in different types of political-administrative structures, namely those of the city of Dortmund (Germany) facing floods, Eastern Attica region (Greece), and Lazio Region (Italy) facing forest fires. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-30 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9843-3 Authors Kalliopi Sapountzaki, Department of Geography, Harokopio University of Athens, Athens, Greece Sylvia Wanczura, Institute of Fire Service and Rescue Technologies, Fire Department of Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany Gabriella Casertano, Regione Lazio, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Rome, Italy Stefan Greiving, Technical University of Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany Gavriil Xanthopoulos, National Agricultural Research Foundation, Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems and Forest Products Technology, Athens, Greece Floriana F. Ferrara, T6 Ecosystems srl, Rome, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    A practical, DEM-based practical method is proposed to enhance flood risk management in fluvial areas by quantifying relative risk as a function of vulnerability to inland and evacuation difficulty. Both measures are based mainly on the topography of the region, so the method does not require detailed data on the physical characteristics of the land. First, we use the deterministic 8-node method on a digital elevation map (DEM) to trace storm waterways. Second, we repeat the process on a reversed DEM to trace evacuation routes that avoid the waterways and zones dangerously close to the rivers. Finally, on the basis of such two flow lines of evacuee and storm water, we proposed the protocol to evaluate the flood risk at every point on the map taking into account both the minimum time required for floodwater to arrive and duration of an evacuation from that location. The time that must be allocated for safe evacuation is defined as the potential flood risk of evacuation (PFRE). The method is demonstrated on a fluvial area of the Kaki River in Nagaoka city, Japan. In addition, we illustrated the application of the PFRE map to divide the region into areas of greater or lesser evacuation urgency. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9852-2 Authors Jinyoung Kim, Department of Urban Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 113-8656 Japan Yuji Kuwahara, Ibaraki University, Ibaraki, Japan Manish Kumar, Tezpur University, Napaam, Assam 784 028, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Earthquake-induced landslides can cause a large number of casualties and great economic loss. Presently, research methods for studying landslides are largely based on a framework of solid mechanics. In this work, visualization software, known as Visual SPH, is developed in Visual Basic 6.0, and can be used to analyze the fluidized movement of landslides based on smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH). First, the accuracy of the software is verified through simulating a benchmark problem of a dam-break. Then, fluidized movement analysis of the Tangjiashan landslide is carried out using this software. The simulation derives plots of displacement versus time, reproduces the entire flow process of the Tangjiashan landslide, and determines the run-out, which coincides exactly with the characteristics of flow-like landslides observed in the field. All of these are essential in the design of supporting structures and site selection for reconstruction in earthquake-prone regions. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9859-8 Authors Yu Huang, Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Zili Dai, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, 200092 Shanghai, China Weijie Zhang, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, 200092 Shanghai, China Zhiyi Chen, Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Marine overwash from the north a few centuries ago transported hundreds of angular cobbles and boulders tens to hundreds of meters southward from limestone outcrops in the interior of Anegada, 140 km east–northeast of Puerto Rico. We examined two of several cobble and boulder fields as part of an effort to interpret whether the overwash resulted from a tsunami or a storm in a location where both events are known to occur. One of the cobble and boulder field extends 200 m southward from limestone outcrops that are 300 m inland from the island’s north shore. The other field extends 100 m southward from a limestone knoll located 800 m from the nearest shore. In the two fields, we measured the size, orientation, and spatial distribution of a total of 161 clasts and determined their stratigraphic positions with respect to an overwash sand and shell sheet deposit. In both fields, we found the spacing between clasts increased southward and that clast long-axis orientations are consistent with a transport trending north–south. Almost half the clasts are partially buried in a landward thinning and fining overwash sand and none were found embedded in the shelly mud of a pre-overwash marine pond. The two cobble and boulder fields resemble modern tsunami deposits in which dispersed clasts extend inland as a single layer. The fields contrast with coarse clast storm deposits that often form wedge-shaped shore-parallel ridges. These comparisons suggest that the overwash resulted from a tsunami and not from a storm. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9848-y Authors Steve Watt, U.S. Geological Survey, 400 Natural Bridges Drive, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA Mark Buckley, U.S. Geological Survey, 400 Natural Bridges Drive, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA Bruce Jaffe, U.S. Geological Survey, 400 Natural Bridges Drive, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Improvements in hurricane forecasts allowing for more timely evacuations from storm-surge zones are credited with reducing lethality of US landfalling hurricanes. The deadly reach of a hurricane, however, is not limited to storm-surge zones. About 80% of direct US hurricane fatalities since 1970 occurred outside of landfall counties, with most of these fatalities caused by inland flooding. We construct a geographic information system database combining the location and cause of fatalities, estimated wind speeds, and rainfall amounts for the entire track of the storm for landfalling US hurricanes between 1970 and 2007. We analyze the determinants of total fatalities and deaths due to freshwater drowning and wind. Inclusion of inland fatalities results in no downward trend in lethality over the period, in contrast to prior research. Local storm conditions significantly affect lethality, as one-inch and one-knot increases in rainfall and wind increase total fatalities by 28 and 4%. Rainfall significantly increases freshwater-drowning deaths and is insignificant for wind deaths, while the opposite relation holds for wind speed. While coastal counties do not exhibit a significantly higher amount of lethality risk versus inland counties for total or wind-driven fatalities, freshwater-drowning fatalities occur most frequently in inland counties along the center of the storm path and its outer county tiers as we have defined them. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9849-x Authors Jeffrey Czajkowski, Department of Economics, Austin College, Sherman, TX, USA Kevin Simmons, Department of Economics, Austin College, Sherman, TX, USA Daniel Sutter, Department of Economics and Finance, University of Texas - Pan American, Edinburg, TX, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    This study explored demographic variations among victims injured in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The study analyzed records of 2,148 patients who were hospitalized with earthquake-related injuries in 14 hospitals between May 12 and May 21 of 2008. We tested the effects of gender and age on the incidence of fractures and amputations. Although more women than men were hospitalized as earthquake victims, the results indicated that a higher incidence of pelvic fracture in women was the only statistically significant injury with regard to gender. Age had a more complex effect on the rate and pattern of fractures. Children younger than 15 years old were the most likely to sustain skull fractures and amputations. The elderly were the most likely to be associated with limb fractures. Adult men were the most likely to suffer spine fractures and adult women rib fractures. The paper concludes with an interpretation of the results in the context of China’s rural conditions and discusses implications for post-disaster emergency operations and planning. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9836-2 Authors Ying Cao, College of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, No. 24 South Section 1, Yihuan Road, Chengdu, 610065 China Nabil Kamel, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Coor Hall, 975 S. Myrtle Ave., Fifth Floor, P.O. Box 875302, Tempe, AZ 85287-5302, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Following the catastrophic and devastating Atlantic Hurricane seasons in 2004 and 2005, there has been increased interest in formulating planning directives and policy aimed at minimizing the societal impacts of future storms. Not all populations will evacuate an area forecast to be affected by a hurricane, so emergency managers must plan for these people who remain behind. Such planning includes making food, water, ice, and other provisions available at strategic locations throughout an affected area. Recent research has tackled problems related to humanitarian and relief goods distribution with respect to hurricanes. Experience shows that the torrential rains and heavy winds associated with hurricanes can severely damage transportation network infrastructure rendering it unusable. Scanning the literature on hurricane disaster relief provision, there are no studies that expressly consider the potential damage that may be caused to a transportation network by strong storms. This paper examines the impacts of simulated network failures on hurricane disaster relief planning strategies, using a smaller Florida City as an example. A relief distribution protocol is assumed where goods distribution points are set up in pre-determined locations following the passage of a storm. Simulation results reveal that modest disruptions to the transportation network produce marked changes in the number and spatial configuration of relief facilities. At the same time, the transportation network appears to be robust and is able to support relief service provision even at elevated levels of hypothesized disruption. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9855-z Authors Mark W. Horner, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA Michael J. Widener, University at Buffalo, 105 Wilkeson Quad, Buffalo, NY 14261-0001, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Although the risk of flooding poses a serious threat to the Dutch public, citizens are not very inclined to engage in self-protective behaviors. Current risk communication tries to enhance these self-protective behaviors among citizens, but is nonetheless not very successful. The level of citizens engaging in self-protective actions remains rather low. Therefore, this research strives to determine the factors that might enhance or lessen the intention to engage in self-protection among citizens. The study was a 2 (flood risk: high vs low) × 2 (efficacy beliefs: high vs low) between subject experiment. It was conducted to test how varying levels of flood risk and efficacy beliefs influence two different self-protective behaviors, namely information seeking and the intention to engage in risk mitigating or preventive behaviors. Furthermore, the relationship between information seeking and the intention to take self-protective actions was discussed. Results showed that high levels of flood risk lead to higher levels of both information seeking and the intention to engage in self-protective behaviors than low levels of flood risk. For efficacy beliefs, the same trend occurred. Also, results showed that information seeking seems to coincide with the intention to take preventive actions and acted as a mediator between the levels of perceived risk and efficacy and the intention to take self-protective actions. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9845-1 Authors Milou Kievik, Saxion, University for Applied Sciences, PO Box 70.000, 7500 KB Enschede, The Netherlands Jan M. Gutteling, University of Twente, PO Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Much progress has been made in the area of tropical cyclone prediction using high-resolution mesoscale models based on community models developed at National Centers for Environmental Predication (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). While most of these model research and development activities are focused on predicting hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific domains, there has been much interest in using these models for tropical cyclone prediction in the North Indian Ocean region, particularly for Bay of Bengal storms that are known historically causing severe damage to life and property. In this study, the advanced operational hurricane modeling system developed at NCEP, known as the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model, is used to simulate two recent Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones—Nargis of November 2007 and Sidr of April 2008. The advanced NCEP operational vortex initialization procedure is adapted for simulating these Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones. Two additional regional models, the NCAR Advanced Research WRF and NCAR/Penn State University Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) are also used in simulating these storms. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over other models in predicting the Bay of Bengal cyclones. These results also suggest the need for a sophisticated vortex initialization procedure in conjunction with a model designed exclusively for tropical cyclone prediction for operational considerations. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9839-z Authors D. V. Bhaskar Rao, TLGVRC, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS 39217, USA Vijay Tallapragada, NCEP/EMC, 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Landslides interacting with large infrastructures represent a major problem for the economy, society as a whole, and the safety of workers. Continuous monitoring for 23 months using an integrated platform with a ground-based SAR interferometer (GB-InSAR), a weather station, and an automatic camera gave us the opportunity to analyze the response of an unstable slope to the different phases of work. The deformational behavior of both the natural slope and the man-made structures was recorded and interpreted in relation to the working stages and the rainfall conditions during the whole monitoring period. A typical pattern of displacement was identified for shallow landslides, debris produced by the excavation and gabions, metallic walls, and anchored bulkheads. Furthermore, insights into the dynamics and behavior of the slope and the man-made structures that interact with the landslide were obtained. Extreme rainfall is the main trigger of shallow landslides and gabion deformations, while anchored bulkheads are less influenced by rainfalls. Movement of debris that is produced by excavations and temporary metallic barrier deformation are closely related to each other. The herein proposed monitoring platform is very efficient in monitoring unstable slopes that are affected by human activities. Moreover, the recorded patterns of displacement in the slope and the man-made structures can be used as reference data for similar studies and engineering designs. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9840-6 Authors Francesca Bozzano, CERI, Research Centre on Prevention, Prediction and Control of Geological Risks, P.zza U. Pilozzi 9, 00038 Valmontone, Italy Ivan Cipriani, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, “Sapienza” Università di Roma, P.le Aldo Moro 5, 00185 Rome, Italy Paolo Mazzanti, CERI, Research Centre on Prevention, Prediction and Control of Geological Risks, P.zza U. Pilozzi 9, 00038 Valmontone, Italy Alberto Prestininzi, CERI, Research Centre on Prevention, Prediction and Control of Geological Risks, P.zza U. Pilozzi 9, 00038 Valmontone, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    In the midst of the ever-increasing natural and human-induced disasters, where many of the preparedness and mitigation measures show inefficiencies, there is narrow margin for decision-makers to make mistakes by misallocating budgets, designing infeasible reconstruction plans, and in other terms, making decisions not in line with the public preferences. In particular, public participation in post-disaster measures seems undoubtedly necessary to reduce the possible economic, social, political, and cultural conflicts around the stressful community after a major disaster. This paper aims at evaluating the role of public participation in increasing the reconstruction phase efficiency through a case study of the reconstruction process in Bam, a southeastern Iranian city, after the 2003 earthquake. It is attempted to identify the major motivators of the public participation through a combination of quantitative and qualitative studies. Statistical data are generated through a set of questionnaires being filled by a number of 200 randomly selected survivors. The numerical results were then discussed through the Focus Group technique sessions to determine the main contributors to the public participation. It is later found that the answers are found among the performance of the reconstruction authorities, financial policies, emotional resiliency of the survivors, public information mechanisms, public satisfaction, the pace of reconstruction, and temporary housing policies. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9842-4 Authors Babak Omidvar, Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6135, Tehran, Iran Hossein Zafari, Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, Tehran, Iran Mehdi Khakpour, Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6135, Tehran, Iran Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    After the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman tsunamigenic earthquake, waters from the ocean moved upstream along rivers, bays, harbors, and lagoons and inundated many coastal and inland locations in the southern, eastern, and northern parts of Sri Lanka. The tsunami waters were observed to move upwards inland and then recede downwards to the ocean after varying inundation periods in different coastal areas. Subsequent massive tsunami waves came with the wave height varying from 3 to 8 m inland with speed of about 30–40 kmph. The oceanic waves carrying heterogeneous sediments with water deposited them in coastal as well as inland locations about 1 km from the present coastline. Given the chaotic nature of tsunami oceanic waves, pre-tsunami deposits, such as beach sands, debris from coral reefs and buildings, parts of vehicles and ships, and tree trunks are found incorporated in authentic tsunami sediments. Thus, the texture, structure, and composition of sediments deposited by tsunami waters differed from one location to another. Therefore, in identifying paleo-tsunami sediments, care was taken to compare them with diagnostic unmixed uncontaminated recent tsunami sediments having characteristic textures and marine microfossil assemblages, such as foraminifera, radiolarians, and diatoms where preserved in coastal depressions. The radiocarbon ages of the carbonate and the organic fractions of these sediments are stratigraphically inconsistent, indicating mixing of sediments by the tsunami waves. The concentrations of organic carbon and nitrogen and their isotopic signatures confirm marine origin of these sediments. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9824-6 Authors Kapila Dahanayake, Department of Geology, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka Nayomi Kulasena, Roughton International (UK), Southern Transport Development Project, Baddegama, Sri Lanka G. V. Ravi Prasad, AMS Radiocarbon Laboratory, Institute of Physics, Bhubaneswar, 751005 India Koushik Dutta, AMS Radiocarbon Laboratory, Institute of Physics, Bhubaneswar, 751005 India D. K. Ray, AMS Radiocarbon Laboratory, Institute of Physics, Bhubaneswar, 751005 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Assessment and inventory on soil erosion hazard are essential for the formulation of successful hazard mitigation plans and sustainable development. The objective of this study was to assess and map soil erosion hazard in Lesser Himalaya with a case study. The Dabka watershed constitutes a part of the Kosi Basin in the Lesser Himalaya, India, in district Nainital has been selected for the case illustration. The average rate of erosion hazard is 0.68 mm/year or 224 tons/km 2 /year. Anthropogenic and geo-environmental factors have together significantly accelerated the rate of erosion. This reconnaissance study estimates the erosion rate over the period of 3 years (2006–2008) as 1.21 mm/year (398 tons/km 2 /year) in the barren land having geological background of diamictite, siltstone and shale rocks, 0.92 mm/year (302 tons/km 2 /year) in the agricultural land with lithology of diamictite, slates, siltstone, limestone rocks, while in the forest land, it varies between 0.20 mm/year (66 tons/km 2 /year) under dense forest land having the geology of quartzwacke and quartrenite rocks and 0.40 mm/year (132 tons/km 2 /year) under open forest/shrubs land having geological setup of shale, dolomite and gypsum rocks. Compared to the intensity of erosion in the least disturbed dense forest, the erosion rate is about 5–6 times higher in the most disturbed agricultural land and barren land, respectively. The erosion hazard zones delineated following scalogram modelling approach. Integrated scalogram modelling approach resulted in severe classes of soil erosion hazard in the study area with numerical values of Erosion Hazard Index (EHI) ranging between 01 (very low hazard) and 5 (very high hazard). Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9833-5 Authors Pradeep K. Rawat, Department of Geography, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India P. C. Tiwari, Department of Geography, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India C. C. Pant, Department of Geology, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India A. K. Sharama, Department of Geology, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India P. D. Pant, Department of Geology, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Soil erosion is a serious environmental problem in Indravati catchment. It carries the highest amount of sediments compared with other catchments in India. This catchment spreading an area of 41,285 km 2 is drained by river Indravati, which is one of the northern tributaries of the river Godavari in its lower reach. In the present study, USLE is used to estimate potential soil erosion from river Indravati catchment. Both magnitude and spatial distribution of potential soil erosion in the catchment is determined. The derived soil loss map from USLE model is classified into six categories ranging from slight to very severe risk depending on the calculated soil erosion amount. The soil erosion map is linked to elevation and slope maps to identify the area for conservation practice in order to reduce the soil loss. From the model output predictions, it is found that average erosion rate predicted is 18.00 tons/ha/year and sediment yield at the out let of the catchment is 22.30 Million tons per annum. The predicted sediment yield verified with the observed data. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9832-6 Authors Sreenivasulu Vemu, Department of Civil Engineering, JNT University, Kakinada, 533003 AP, India Udaya Bhaskar Pinnamaneni, Department of Civil Engineering, JNT University, Kakinada, 533003 AP, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    This paper introduces a new metric for tropical cyclone track shape within the tropical South Pacific (TSP) basin, based on measurements of track sinuosity. A sinuosity index (SI) is developed by applying a simple cube-root transformation to original track sinuosity values. Based on the resulting near-normal SI distribution, an ordinal four-category (quartile) naming system is then proposed for track-type classification. Track sinuosity patterns are also investigated over the last four decades (1970–2008). Analytical findings suggest that cyclone track sinuosity is an important parameter influencing the potential vulnerability of island archipelagoes to cyclone hazard. Principally, sinuously moving cyclones show some tendency for greater longevity and intensity than straighter-tracking storms and make up a larger proportion of systems forming in the western tropical South Pacific than those generated farther east. Although no long-term statistical trend can be established, track sinuosity is highly variable through time, implying that the TSP basin and the islands therein will continue to experience large but irregular inter-annual fluctuations in cyclone track morphology. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9827-3 Authors James P. Terry, Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, AS2, 1 Arts Link, Kent Ridge, 117570 Singapore Gennady Gienko, Department of Geomatics, School of Engineering, University of Alaska Anchorage, 3211 Providence Drive, Anchorage, AK 99508-4514, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    The level of damage of flood events does not solely depend on exposure to flood waters. Vulnerabilities due to various socio-economic factors such as population at risk, public awareness, and presence of early warning systems, etc. should also be taken into account. Federal and state agencies, watershed management coalitions, insurance companies, need reliable decision support system to evaluate flood risk, to plan and design flood damage assessment and mitigation systems. In current practice, flood damage evaluations are generally carried out based on results obtained from one dimensional (1D) numerical simulations. In some cases, however, 1D simulation is not able to accurately capture the dynamics of the flood events. The present study describes a decision support system, which is based on 2D flood simulation results obtained with CCHE2D-FLOOD. The 2D computational results are complemented with information from various resources, such as census block layer, detailed survey data, and remote sensing images, to estimate loss of life and direct damages (meso or micro scale) to property under uncertainty. Flood damage calculations consider damages to residential, commercial, and industrial buildings in urban areas, and damages to crops in rural areas. The decision support system takes advantage of fast raster layer operations in a GIS platform to generate flood hazard maps based on various user-defined criteria. Monte Carlo method based on an event tree analysis is introduced to account for uncertainties in various parameters. A case study illustrates the uses of the proposed decision support system. The results show that the proposed decision support system allows stake holders to have a better appreciation of the consequences of the flood. It can also be used for planning, design, and evaluation of future flood mitigation measures. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9822-8 Authors Honghai Qi, National Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering (NCCHE), The University of Mississippi, University, Oxford, MS 38677, USA M. S. Altinakar, National Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering (NCCHE), The University of Mississippi, University, Oxford, MS 38677, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    In this paper, we present a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for mainland Spain that takes into account recent new results in seismicity, seismic zoning, and strong ground attenuation not considered in the latest PSHA of the Spanish Building Code. Those new input data have been obtained as a three-step project carried out in order to improve the existing hazard map for mainland Spain. We have produced a new earthquake catalogue for the area, in which the earthquakes are given in moment magnitude through specific deduced relationships for our territory based on intensity data (Mezcua et al. in Seismol Res Lett 75:75–81, 2004 ). In addition, we included a new seismogenetic zoning based on the recent partial zoning studies performed by different authors. Finally, as we have developed a new strong ground motion model for the area García Blanco ( 2009 ), it was considered in the hazard calculation together with other attenuations gathered from different authors using data compatible with our region. With this new data, a logic tree process is defined to quantify the epistemic uncertainty related to those parts of the process. A sensitivity test has been included in order to analyze the different models of ground motion and seismotectonic zonation used in this work. Finally, after applying a weighting scheme, a mean hazard map for PGA, based on rock type condition for 10% exceedance probability in 50 years, is presented, including 15th and 85th percentile hazard maps. The main differences with the present official building code hazard map are analyzed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9819-3 Authors Julio Mezcua, Instituto Geográfico Nacional, General Ibáñez de Ibero 3, 28003 Madrid, Spain Juan Rueda, Instituto Geográfico Nacional, General Ibáñez de Ibero 3, 28003 Madrid, Spain Rosa M. García Blanco, Departamento de Ingeniería Topográfica y Cartografía, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Campus Sur, Autovía de Valencia km 7.5, 28031 Madrid, Spain Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Earthquake-induced landslides are responsible worldwide for significant socioeconomic losses and historically have a prominent position in the list of natural hazards affecting the Iran plateau. As a step toward the development of tools for the assessment and the management of this kind of hazard at regional scale, an empirical estimator of coseismic displacements along potential sliding surfaces was obtained through a regression analysis for the Zagros region, a mountainous Iranian region subjected to earthquake-induced landslides. This estimator, based on the Newmark’s model, allows to evaluate the expected permanent displacement (named “Newmark displacement”) induced by seismic shaking of defined energy on potential sliding surface characterized by a given critical acceleration. To produce regression models for Newmark displacement estimators, a data set was constructed for different critical acceleration values on the basis of 108 accelerometric recordings from 80 Iranian earthquakes with moment magnitudes between 3.6 and 7. The empirical estimator has a general form, proposed by Jibson (Eng Geol 91:209–218, 2007 ), relating Newmark displacement to Arias intensity (as parameter representing the energy of the seismic forces) and to critical acceleration (as parameter representing the dynamic shear resistance of the sliding mass). As an example of application, this relation was employed to provide a basic document for earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment at regional scale, according to a method proposed by Del Gaudio et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:557–569, 2003 ), applied to the whole Iranian territory, including Zagros region. This method consists in evaluating the shear resistance required to slopes to limit the occurrence of seismically induced failures, on the basis of the Newmark’s model. The obtained results show that the exposure to landslide seismic induction is maximum in the Alborz Mountains region, where critical accelerations up to ~0.1 g are required to limit the probability of seismic triggering of coherent type landslides within 10% in 50 years. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9829-1 Authors Ali M. Rajabi, Civil Engineering Department, Qom University, PO Box 14115-175, Qom, Iran Mohammad R. Mahdavifar, Geotechnical Engineering Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), PO Box 19395-3913, Tehran, Iran M. Khamehchiyan, Engineering Geology Department, Tarbiat Modares University, PO Box 14115-175, Tehran, Iran V. Del Gaudio, Dipartimento di Geologia e Geofisica, Universita` degli Studi di Bari, Campus, via E.Orabona 4, 70125 Bari, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    This paper presents the development of the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) in order to quantify the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone areas under various scenarios of climate change. The 2004–2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons is estimated to have caused 150 billion dollars in damages , and in recent years , the annual hurricane damage in the United States is estimated at around 6 billion. Hurricane intensity or/and frequency may change due to the increase in sea surface temperature as a result of climate change. Climate change is also predicted to cause a rise in sea levels, potentially resulting in higher storm surges. The CCSVI combines the intensity of hurricanes and hurricane-induced surge to create a comprehensive index that considers the effects of a changing climate. The main contributing factors of social vulnerability (such as race, age, gender, and socioeconomic status) in hurricane-prone areas are identified through a principal components analysis. The impact of social characteristics on the potential hurricane damage under various scenarios of climate change are evaluated using Miami-Dade County, Florida, as a case study location. This study finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the CCSVI. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9817-5 Authors Sigridur Bjarnadottir, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI, USA Yue Li, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI, USA Mark G. Stewart, Center for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, School of Engineering, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    In this paper, the applicability of the Newmark method at regional, sub-regional and site scales has been investigated in the Lorca Basin (Murcia). This basin is located in one of the most seismically active regions of Spain. The area is very interesting for studying earthquake-induced slope instabilities as there are well-known cases associated with specific earthquakes. For the regional and sub-regional scales, a geographic information system has been used to develop an implementation of Newmark sliding rigid block method. Soil and topographic amplification effects have been particularly considered. Subsequently, ‘Newmark displacement’ maps for deterministic seismic scenarios have been produced. Some specific studies have also been performed using limit equilibrium methods to estimate the safety factor and the critical acceleration of certain slope instabilities at a site scale. These instabilities were the rock slides related to recent seismic series at the Lorca Basin: 2002 Bullas ( M w  = 5.0) and 2005 La Paca ( M w  = 4.8). Finally, the safety factor, critical acceleration and Newmark displacement values estimated at different scales have been compared to determine which scale is most suitable for the Newmark method. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9820-x Authors Martín Jesús Rodríguez-Peces, Departamento de Geodinámica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, C/Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada, Spain José Luis Pérez-García, Departamento de Ingeniería Cartográfica, Geodésica y Fotogrametría, Universidad de Jaén, Campus de las Lagunillas, s/n. Edif. A3, 23071 Jaén, Spain Julián García-Mayordomo, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España (IGME), C/La Calera, 1, 28760 Tres Cantos, Madrid, Spain José Miguel Azañón, Departamento de Geodinámica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, C/Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada, Spain Juan Miguel Insua-Arévalo, Departamento de Geodinámica, Facultad de Ciencias Geológicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain Jorge Delgado-García, Departamento de Ingeniería Cartográfica, Geodésica y Fotogrametría, Universidad de Jaén, Campus de las Lagunillas, s/n. Edif. A3, 23071 Jaén, Spain Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung: Impact of changes in grain size and pore space on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization response of sand Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1785-1794, 2011 Author(s): K. Koch, A. Kemna, J. Irving, and K. Holliger Understanding the influence of pore space characteristics on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization (SIP) response is critical for establishing relationships between the electrical and hydrological properties of surficial unconsolidated sedimentary deposits, which host the bulk of the world's readily accessible groundwater resources. Here, we present the results of laboratory SIP measurements on industrial-grade, saturated quartz samples with granulometric characteristics ranging from fine sand to fine gravel. We altered the pore space characteristics by changing (i) the grain size spectra, (ii) the degree of compaction, and (iii) the level of sorting. We then examined how these changes affect the SIP response, the hydraulic conductivity, and the specific surface area of the considered samples. In general, the results indicate a clear connection between the SIP response and the granulometric as well as pore space characteristics. In particular, we observe a systematic correlation between the hydraulic conductivity and the relaxation time of the Cole-Cole model describing the observed SIP effect for the entire range of considered grain sizes. The results do, however, also indicate that the detailed nature of these relations depends strongly on variations in the pore space characteristics, such as, for example, the degree of compaction. This underlines the complexity of the origin of the SIP signal as well as the difficulty to relate it to a single structural factor of a studied sample, and hence raises some fundamental questions with regard to the practical use of SIP measurements as site- and/or sample-independent predictors of the hydraulic conductivity.

Beschreibung:    The present study explored the effect of assimilation of Advanced TIROS Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) temperature and humidity profiles and Spectral sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) total precipitable water (TPW) on the simulation of a monsoon depression which formed over the Arabian Sea during September 2005 using the Weather Research and Forecast model. The three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation technique has been employed for the purpose of assimilation of satellite observations. Statistical scores like “equitable threat score,” “bias score,” “forecast impact,” and “improvement parameter” have been used to examine the impact of the above-mentioned satellite observations on the numerical simulation of a monsoon depression. The diagnostics of this study include verification of the vertical structure of depression, in terms of temperature anomaly profiles and relative vorticity profiles with observations/analysis. Additional diagnostics of the study include the analysis of the heat budget and moisture budget. Such budget studies have been performed to provide information on the role of cumulus convection associated with the depression. The results of this study show direct and good evidence of the impact of the assimilation of the satellite observations using 3DVAR on the dynamical and thermodynamical features of a monsoon depression along with the effect of inclusion of satellite observation on the spatial pattern of the simulated precipitation associated with the depression. The “forecast impact” parameter calculated for the wind speed provides good evidence of the positive impact of the assimilation of ATOVS temperature and humidity profiles and SSM/I TPW on the model simulation, with the assimilation of the ATOVS profiles showing better impact in terms of a more positive value of the “forecast impact” parameter. The results of the study also indicate the improvement of the forecast skill in terms of “equitable threat score” and “bias score” due to the assimilation of satellite observation. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9857-x Authors M. Govindankutty, Department of Physics and Meteorology, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, India A. Chandrasekar, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Indian Institute of Space Science and Technology, Thiruvananthapuram, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung: WRF simulation of a precipitation event over the Tibetan Plateau, China – an assessment using remote sensing and ground observations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1795-1817, 2011 Author(s): F. Maussion, D. Scherer, R. Finkelnburg, J. Richters, W. Yang, and T. Yao Meteorological observations over the Tibetan Plateau (TiP) are scarce, and precipitation estimations over this remote region are difficult. The constantly improving capabilities of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models offer the opportunity to reduce this problem by providing precipitation fields and other meteorological variables of high spatial and temporal resolution. Longer time periods of years to decades can be simulated by NWP models by successive model runs of shorter periods, which can be described by the term "regional atmospheric reanalysis". In this paper, we assess the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models capacity in retrieving rain- and snowfall on the TiP in such a configuration using a nested approach: the simulations are conducted with three nested domains at spatial resolutions of 30, 10, and 2 km. A validation study is carried out for a one-month period with a special focus on one-week (22–28 October 2008), during which strong rain- and snowfall was observed on the TiP. The output of the model in each resolution is compared to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data set for precipitation and to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data set for snow extent. TRMM and WRF data are then compared to weather-station measurements. Our results suggest an overall improvement from WRF over TRMM with respect to weather-station measurements. Various configurations of the model with different nesting and forcing strategies, as well as physical parameterisation schemes are compared to propose a suitable design for a regional atmospheric reanalysis over the TiP. The WRF model showed good accuracy in simulating snow- and rainfall on the TiP for a one-month simulation period. Our study reveals that there is nothing like an optimal model strategy applicable for the high-altitude TiP, its fringing high-mountain areas of extremely complex topography and the low-altitude land and sea regions from which much of the precipitation on the TiP is originating. The choice of the physical parameterisation scheme will thus be always a compromise depending on the specific purpose of a model simulation. Our study demonstrates the high importance of orographic precipitation, but the problem of the orographic bias remains unsolved since reliable observational data are still missing. The results are relevant for anyone interested in carrying out a regional atmospheric reanalysis. Many hydrological analyses and applications like rainfall-runoff modelling or the analysis of flood events require precipitation rates at daily or even hourly intervals. Thus, our study offers a process-oriented alternative for retrieving precipitation fields of high spatio-temporal resolution in regions like the TiP, where other data sources are limited.

Beschreibung: Spatio-temporal variations in soil moisture and physicochemical properties of a typical semiarid sand-meadow-desert landscape as influenced by land use Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1865-1877, 2011 Author(s): L. Duan, T. Liu, X. Wang, G. Wang, L. Ma, and Y. Luo A good understanding of the interrelations between land cover alteration and changes in hydrologic conditions (e.g., soil moisture) as well as soil physicochemical properties (e.g., fine soil particles and nutrients) is crucial for maintaining the fragile hydrologic and environmental conditions of semiarid land, such as the Horqin Sandy Land in China, but is lacking in existing literature. The objectives of this study were to examine: (1) spatio-temporal variations of soil moisture and physicochemical properties in semiarid land; and (2) how those variations are influenced by land cover alteration. Using the data collected in a 9.71 km 2 well-instrumented area of the Horqin Sandy Land, this study examined by visual examination and statistical analyses the spatio-temporal variations of soil moisture and physicochemical properties. The results indicated that for the study area, the soil moisture and physicochemical properties were dependent on local topography, soil texture, vegetation density, and human activity. Long-term reclamation for agriculture was found to reduce soil moisture by over 23 % and significantly (p-value 〈 0.05) lower the contents of soil organic matter, fine soil particles, and nutrients.

Beschreibung:    Highways and railroads situated within rugged terrain are often subjected to the hazard of rockfalls. The task of assessing roadside rockmasses for potential hazards typically involves an on-site visual investigation of the rockmass by an engineer or geologist. At that time, numerous parameters associated with discontinuity orientations and spacing, block size (volume) and shape distributions, slope geometry, and ditch profile are either measured or estimated. Measurements are typically tallied according to a formal hazard rating system, and a hazard level is determined for the site. This methodology often involves direct exposure of the evaluating engineer to the hazard and can also create a potentially non-unique record of the assessed slope based on the skill, knowledge and background of the evaluating engineer. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)–based technologies have the capability to produce spatially accurate, high-resolution digital models of physical objects, known as point clouds. Mobile terrestrial LiDAR equipment can collect, at traffic speed, roadside data along highways and rail lines, scanning continual distances of hundreds of kilometres per day. Through the use of mobile terrestrial LiDAR, in conjunction with airborne and static systems for problem areas, rockfall hazard analysis workflows can be modified and optimized to produce minimally biased, repeatable results. Traditional rockfall hazard analysis inputs include two distinct, but related sets of variables related to geological or geometric control. Geologically controlled inputs to hazard rating systems include kinematic stability (joint identification/orientation) and rock block shape and size distributions. Geometrically controlled inputs include outcrop shape and size, road, ditch and outcrop profile, road curvature and vehicle line of sight. Inputs from both categories can be extracted or calculated from LiDAR data, although there are some limitations and special sampling and processing considerations related to structural character of the rockmass, as detailed in this paper. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-34 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9872-y Authors Matthew J. Lato, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway Mark S. Diederichs, Geological Sciences and Geological Engineering, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada D. Jean Hutchinson, Geological Sciences and Geological Engineering, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada Rob Harrap, Geological Sciences and Geological Engineering, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    A rock slide on top of the clayey–silty–sandy–pebbly masses in the Gschliefgraben (Upper Austria province, Lake Traunsee) having occurred in 2006, together with the humid autumn of 2007, triggered a mudslide comprising a volume up to 4 million m³ and moving with a maximum displacement velocity of 5 m/day during the winter of 2007–2008. The possible damage was estimated up to 60 million € due to the possible destruction of houses and of a road to a settlement with intense tourism. The movement front ran ahead in the creek bed. Therefore, it was assumed that water played an important role. Inclinometer measurements showed that a less permeable layer was sliding on a thin, more permeable layer. During the last centuries, mudslides had already pushed farms into the lake, as reported by chronicles. Thus, the inhabitants of 46 houses had to be evacuated for safety reasons. They could return to their homes after displacement velocities had decreased. It was decided (a) to prevent soaking of water into the uppermost, less permeable layer by transversal drainages, (b) to lower the pore water pressures by longitudinal trenches filled with blocky material, (c) to pump water out of the more permeable layer by well drillings upslope of the houses in order to create a stable block below the houses and (d) to remove material thrust over the stable blocks in order to avoid damage to the houses. These mitigation measures costing 11.5 million € led to a deceleration of the process to displacement velocities of some cm/year up to now. The houses and the road were not damaged. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9865-x Authors R. Poisel, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria R. Hofmann, Geotechnical Engineering Hofmann, Perchtoldsdorf, Austria A. Preh, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria T. Sausgruber, Austrian Service for Torrent, Erosion and Avalanche Control, Geological Service, Innsbruck, Austria M. Schiffer, Austrian Service for Torrent, Erosion and Avalanche Control, Project Management Salzkammergut, Bad Ischl, Austria Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung: Anatomy of extraordinary rainfall and flash flood in a Dutch lowland catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1991-2005, 2011 Author(s): C. C. Brauer, A. J. Teuling, A. Overeem, Y. van der Velde, P. Hazenberg, P. M. M. Warmerdam, and R. Uijlenhoet On 26 August 2010 the eastern part of The Netherlands and the bordering part of Germany were struck by a series of rainfall events lasting for more than a day. Over an area of 740 km 2 more than 120 mm of rainfall were observed in 24 h. This extreme event resulted in local flooding of city centres, highways and agricultural fields, and considerable financial loss. In this paper we report on the unprecedented flash flood triggered by this exceptionally heavy rainfall event in the 6.5 km 2 Hupsel Brook catchment, which has been the experimental watershed employed by Wageningen University since the 1960s. This study aims to improve our understanding of the dynamics of such lowland flash floods. We present a detailed hydrometeorological analysis of this extreme event, focusing on its synoptic meteorological characteristics, its space-time rainfall dynamics as observed with rain gauges, weather radar and a microwave link, as well as the measured soil moisture, groundwater and discharge response of the catchment. At the Hupsel Brook catchment 160 mm of rainfall was observed in 24 h, corresponding to an estimated return period of well over 1000 years. As a result, discharge at the catchment outlet increased from 4.4 × 10 −3 to nearly 5 m 3 s −1 . Within 7 h discharge rose from 5 × 10 −2 to 4.5 m 3 s −1 . The catchment response can be divided into four phases: (1) soil moisture reservoir filling, (2) groundwater response, (3) surface depression filling and surface runoff and (4) backwater feedback. The first 35 mm of rainfall were stored in the soil without a significant increase in discharge. Relatively dry initial conditions (in comparison to those for past discharge extremes) prevented an even faster and more extreme hydrological response.

Beschreibung: On the value of combined event runoff and tracer analysis to improve understanding of catchment functioning in a data-scarce semi-arid area Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 2007-2024, 2011 Author(s): M. Hrachowitz, R. Bohte, M. L. Mul, T. A. Bogaard, H. H. G. Savenije, and S. Uhlenbrook Hydrological processes in small catchments are not quite understood yet, which is true in particular for catchments in data scarce, semi-arid regions. This is in contrast with the need for a better understanding of water fluxes and the interactions between surface- and groundwater in order to facilitate sustainable water resources management in such environments, where both floods and droughts can result in severe crop loss. In this study, event runoff coefficient analysis and limited tracer data of four small, nested sub-catchments (0.4–25.3 km 2 ) in a data scarce, semi-arid region of Tanzania helped to characterize the distinct response of the study catchments and to gain insights into the dominant runoff processes. The estimated event runoff coefficients were very low and did not exceed 0.09. They were found to be significantly related to the 5-day antecedent precipitation totals as well as to base flow, indicating a close relation to changes in soil moisture and thus potential switches in runoff generation processes. The time scales of the "direct flow" reservoirs, used to compute the event runoff coefficients, were up to one order of magnitude reduced for extreme events, compared to "average" events, suggesting the activation of at least a third flow component, besides base- and direct flow, assumed to be infiltration overland flow. Analysis of multiple tracers highlighted the importance of pre-event water to total runoff, even during intense and high yield precipitation events. It further illustrated the distinct nature of the catchments, in particular with respect to the available water storage, which was suggested by different degrees of tracer damping in the individual streams. The use of multiple tracers subsequently allowed estimating uncertainties in hydrograph separations arising from the use of different tracers. The results highlight the presence of considerable uncertainties, emphasizing the need for multiple tracers in order to avoid misleading results. This study shows the value of hydrological data collection over one whole wet season using multi-tracers to improve the understanding of hydrological functioning and thus for water resources management in data scarce, semi-arid environments.

Beschreibung: Changes in land cover, rainfall and stream flow in Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment, Blue Nile basin – Ethiopia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1979-1989, 2011 Author(s): T. H. M. Rientjes, A. T. Haile, E. Kebede, C. M. M. Mannaerts, E. Habib, and T. S. Steenhuis In this study we evaluated changes in land cover and rainfall in the Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment in the Upper Blue Nile basin and how changes affected stream flow in terms of annual flow, high flows and low flows. Land cover change assessment was through classification analysis of remote sensing based land cover data while assessments on rainfall and stream flow data are by statistical analysis. Results of the supervised land cover classification analysis indicated that 50.9 % and 16.7 % of the catchment area was covered by forest in 1973 and 2001, respectively. This significant decrease in forest cover is mainly due to expansion of agricultural land. By use of a change detection procedure, three periods were identified for which changes in rainfall and stream flow were analyzed. Rainfall was analyzed at monthly base by use of the Mann-Kendall test statistic and results indicated a statistically significant, decreasing trend for most months of the year. However, for the wet season months of June, July and August rainfall has increased. In the period 1973–2005, the annual flow of the catchment decreased by 12.1 %. Low flow and high flow at daily base were analyzed by a low flow and a high flow index that is based on a 95 % and 5 % exceedance probability. Results of the low flow index indicated decreases of 18.1 % and 66.6 % for the periods 1982–2000 and 2001–2005 respectively. Results of high flows indicated an increase of 7.6 % and 46.6 % for the same periods. In this study it is concluded that over the period 1973–2005 stream flow has changed in the Gilgel Abbay catchment by changes in land cover and changes in rainfall.

Beschreibung:    The rainfall events that occurred in the Cubatão do Norte River watershed, Santa Catarina State, Brazil, in 2008, were characterized by both high intensities and amounts and triggered landslides in this watershed. The objective of the present study was to analyze the influence of landslides on the turbidity and the total solid concentration (TS) in this river using turbidity, TS, and river discharge data obtained from March 23, 2008, to June 11, 2010. The comparison between turbidity and discharge patterns implies that the landslide process was not continuous and increased the turbidity intermittently and irregularly. The sediment yield during the landslide occurrence was approximately five times higher than without the landslide, even though the discharges were similar. The turbidity/discharge relationship during the landslide occurrence was markedly different from that before and after the occurrence. The correlation coefficients between turbidity and TS showed that the landslide significantly changed the sediment yield in this watershed. The result indicates that sediment yield estimations at the watershed level should be treated more carefully when landslides occur. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9818-4 Authors Masato Kobiyama, Departamento de Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900, Brazil Aline de Almeida Mota, Departamento de Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900, Brazil Fernando Grison, Departamento de Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900, Brazil Joana Nery Giglio, Departamento de Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900, Brazil Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    This study describes a critical assessment of the risk control decision model from a methodological perspective and identifies major shortcomings with the employment of enhanced formal evaluation and decision-making methods. This in turn could have major applications for natural disaster risk control. The methodology follows the description of interpretive structural modeling (ISM), which is an interactive learning process in which a set of different and directly related elements is structured to form a comprehensive systemic model. The next step explores the potentials of different mathematical programming approaches in order to improve decision making, i.e., for the development of an economic utility constrained-maximization model that addresses the issue of optimal budget allocation under a trade-off framework. Several aspects of risk and uncertainty are discussed within the context of an economic utility constrained-maximization model with a major focus on the importance of risk and uncertainty in research evaluation, and how the strategy determines the insurance and risk control plans. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9861-1 Authors Chun-Pin Tseng, Armaments Bureau, Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology, Taoyuan, Taiwan Cheng-Wu Chen, Institute of Maritime Information and Technology, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung, 80543 Taiwan Yu-Ping Tu, Department of Logistics Management, Shu-Te University, Kaohsiung, 82445 Taiwan, Republic of China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    District-wide drought climatology over India for the southwest monsoon season (June–September) has been examined using two simple drought indices; Percent of Normal Precipitation (PNP) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The season drought indices were computed using long times series (1901–2003) of southwest monsoon season rainfall data of 458 districts over the country. Identification of all India (nation-wide) drought incidences using both PNP and SPI yielded nearly similar results. However, the district-wide climatology based on PNP was biased by the aridity of the region. Whereas district-wide drought climatology based on SPI was not biased by aridity. This study shows that SPI is a better drought index than PNP for the district-wide drought monitoring over the country. SPI is also suitable for examining break and active events in the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country. The trend analysis of district-wide season (June–September) SPI series showed significant negative trends over several districts from Chattisgarh, Bihar, Kerala, Jharkhand, Assam and Meghalaya, Uttaranchal, east Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha etc., Whereas significant positive trends in the SPI series were observed over several districts from west Uttar Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh, South & north Interior Karnataka, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, East Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Gujarat etc. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9867-8 Authors D. S. Pai, India Meteorological Department, Pune, India Latha Sridhar, India Meteorological Department, Pune, India Pulak Guhathakurta, India Meteorological Department, Pune, India H. R. Hatwar, India Meteorological Department, Pune, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    The Indus flood in 2010 was one of the greatest river disasters in recent history, which affected more than 14 million people in Pakistan. Although excessive rainfall between July and September 2010 has been cited as the major causative factor for this disaster, the human interventions in the river system over the years made this disaster a catastrophe. Geomorphic analysis suggests that the Indus River has had a very dynamic regime in the past. However, the river has now been constrained by embankments on both sides, and several barrages have been constructed along the river. As a result, the river has been aggrading rapidly during the last few decades due to its exceptionally high sediment load particularly in reaches upstream of the barrages. This in turn has caused significant increase in cross-valley gradient leading to breaches upstream of the barrages and inundation of large areas. Our flow accumulation analysis using SRTM data not only supports this interpretation but also points out that there are several reaches along the Indus River, which are still vulnerable to such breaches and flooding. Even though the Indus flood in 2010 was characterized by exceptionally high discharges, our experience in working on Himalayan rivers and similar recent events in rivers in Nepal and India suggest that such events can occur at relatively low discharges. It is therefore of utmost importance to identify such areas and plan mitigation measures as soon as possible. We emphasize the role of geomorphology in flood analysis and management and urge the river managers to take urgent steps to incorporate the geomorphic understanding of Himalayan rivers in river management plans. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9869-6 Authors Kumar Gaurav, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, UP 208016, India R. Sinha, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, UP 208016, India P. K. Panda, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, UP 208016, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Tropical cyclone is one of the most devastating weather phenomena all over the world. The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has developed a sophisticated mesoscale model known as Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system for tropical cyclone studies. The state-of-the-art HWRF model (atmospheric component) has been used in simulating most of the features our present study of a very severe tropical cyclone “Mala”, which developed on April 26 over the Bay of Bengal and crossed the Arakan coast of Myanmar on April 29, 2006. The initial and lateral boundary conditions are obtained from Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecast fields of the NCEP, respectively. The performance of the model is evaluated with simulation of cyclone Mala with six different initial conditions at an interval of 12 h each from 00 UTC 25 April 2006 to 12 UTC 27 April 2006. The best result in terms of track and intensity forecast as obtained from different initial conditions is further investigated for large-scale fields and structure of the cyclone. For this purpose, a number of important predicted fields’ viz. central pressure/pressure drop, winds, precipitation, etc. are verified against observations/verification analysis. Also, some of the simulated diagnostic fields such as relative vorticity, pressure vertical velocity, heat fluxes, precipitation rate, and moisture convergences are investigated for understanding of the characteristics of the cyclone in more detail. The vector displacement errors in track forecasts are calculated with the estimated best track provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The results indicate that the model is able to capture most of the features of cyclone Mala with reasonable accuracy. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-25 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9863-z Authors Sujata Pattanayak, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 India U. C. Mohanty, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 India S. G. Gopalakrishnan, Hurricane Research Division, NOAA, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Seasonal water scarcity in southern China has been an issue of concern for many years. The increased frequency of low precipitation in the growing season of rice created a flurry of discussions in the academic and policy arenas. These events severely disrupted the supply of irrigation water for agriculture in paddy field areas and posed a substantial threat to farmers’ livelihoods. Within a broader context of accessing farmers’ resilience to agricultural drought, this paper focuses on the response mechanisms and adaptive strategies adopted by farming households in three types of areas (Plain, Hill, Mountain) in Dingcheng, Hunan Province. With the increasing drought frequency and the pressure from the demand for livelihood improvement, farmers’ response mechanisms have evolved, expanding from short-term adjustments to long-term adaptations, and switching focus from securing reliable water sources to improving irrigation efficiency and diversifying both on- and off- farm productions. The three types of geographic units have different resilience profiles and have developed diverse patterns of adaptive processes that update the conceptual model of Disaster Resilience of “Loss-Response” of Location. It presents a temporal dimension to the study of resilience, which is largely missing from the current literature and provides insights into how to enhance farmers’ response capacities in the face of agricultural drought in southern China. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9873-x Authors Yehong Sun, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China Hongjian Zhou, National Disaster Reduction Center of China (NDRCC), No. 6, Guangbaidonglu, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100022 China Jing’ai Wang, College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China Yi Yuan, National Disaster Reduction Center of China (NDRCC), No. 6, Guangbaidonglu, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100022 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Using newly digitised sea-level data for the ports of Southampton (1935–2005) and Portsmouth (1961–2005) on the south coast of the UK, this study investigates the relationship between the 100 highest sea-level events recorded at the two cities and the incidence of coastal floods in the adjoining Solent region. The main sources of flood data are the daily newspapers The Southern Daily Echo , based in Southampton and The News , based in Portsmouth, supported by a range of local publications and records. The study indicates a strong relationship between the highest measured sea levels and the incidence of coastal floods and highlights the most vulnerable areas to coastal flooding which include parts of Portsmouth, Southampton, Hayling Island, Fareham and Cowes. The most severe flood in the dataset resulted from the storm surge events of 13–17 December 1989 when eight consecutive extreme high waters occurred. The data suggest that while extreme sea-level events are becoming more common, the occurrence of flood events is not increasing. This is attributed to improved flood remediation measures combined with a reduction of storm intensity since the 1980s. However, several recent events of significance were still recorded, particularly 3 November 2005 when Eaststoke on Hayling Island (near Portsmouth) was flooded due to high sea levels combined with energetic swell waves. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-24 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9868-7 Authors Amy C. Ruocco, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK Robert J. Nicholls, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK Ivan D. Haigh, The School of Environment Systems Engineering and UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, M470, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia Matthew P. Wadey, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung: Field survey report on the 11th March 2011 tsunami in Pacific coast of Mexico Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-6 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9871-z Authors M. P. Jonathan, Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo (CIIEMAD), Instituto Politécnico Nacional (IPN), Calle 30 de Junio de 1520, Barrio la Laguna Ticomán, Del. Gustavo A. Madero, 07340 Mexico, DF, Mexico P. D. Roy, Instituto de Geología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510 Mexico, DF, Mexico J. L. Sánchez-Zavala, Instituto de Geología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510 Mexico, DF, Mexico S. Srinivasalu, Department of Geology, Anna University, Chennai, 600025 India M. C. Macías-Romo, Instituto de Geología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510 Mexico, DF, Mexico C. Lakshumanan, Centre for Remote Sensing, Bharathidasan University, Khajamalai Campus, Thiruchirappalli, 620023 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung: Hydropedological insights when considering catchment classification Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1909-1919, 2011 Author(s): J. Bouma, P. Droogers, M. P. W. Sonneveld, C. J. Ritsema, J. E. Hunink, W. W. Immerzeel, and S. Kauffman Soil classification systems are analysed to explore the potential of developing classification systems for catchments. Soil classifications are useful to create systematic order in the overwhelming quantity of different soils in the world and to extrapolate data available for a given soil type to soils elsewhere with identical classifications. This principle also applies to catchments. However, to be useful, soil classifications have to be based on permanent characteristics as formed by the soil forming factors over often very long periods of time. When defining permanent catchment characteristics, discharge data would therefore appear to be less suitable. But permanent soil characteristics do not necessarily match with characteristics and parameters needed for functional soil characterization focusing, for example, on catchment hydrology. Hydropedology has made contributions towards the required functional characterization of soils as is illustrated for three recent hydrological catchment studies. However, much still needs to be learned about the physical behaviour of anisotropic, heterogeneous soils with varying soil structures during the year and about spatial and temporal variability. The suggestion is made therefore to first focus on improving simulation of catchment hydrology, possibly incorporating hydropedological expertise, before embarking on a catchment classification effort which involves major input of time and involves the risk of distraction. In doing so, we suggest to also define other characteristics for catchment performance than the traditionally measured discharge rates. Such characteristics may well be derived from societal issues being studied, as is illustrated for the Green Water Credits program.

Beschreibung: Quantifying spatial and temporal discharge dynamics of an event in a first order stream, using distributed temperature sensing Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1945-1957, 2011 Author(s): M. C. Westhoff, T. A. Bogaard, and H. H. G. Savenije Understanding the spatial distribution of discharge can be important for water quality and quantity modeling. Non-steady flood waves can, particularly as a result of short high intensity summer rainstorms, influence small headwater streams significantly. The aim of this paper is to quantify the spatial and temporal dynamics of stream flow in a headwater stream during a summer rainstorm. These dynamics include gains and losses of stream water, the effect of bypasses that become active and hyporheic exchange fluxes that may vary over time as a function of discharge. We use an advection-dispersion model coupled with an energy balance model to simulate in-stream water temperature, which we compare with high resolution temperature observations obtained with Distributed Temperature Sensing. This model was used as a learning tool to stepwise unravel the complex puzzle of in-stream processes subject to varying discharge. Hypotheses were tested and rejected, which led to more insight in the spatial and temporal dynamics in discharge and hyporheic exchange processes. We showed that, for the studied stream infiltration losses increase during a small rain event, while gains of water remained constant over time. We conclude that, eventually, part of the stream water bypassed the main channel during peak discharge. It also seems that hyporheic exchange varies with varying discharge in the first 250 m of the stream; while further downstream it remains constant. Because we relied on solar radiation as the main energy input, we were only able to apply this method during a small summer storm and low flow conditions. However, when additional (artificial) energy is available, the presented method is also applicable in larger streams, during higher flow conditions or longer storms.

Beschreibung: Trend analysis of extreme precipitation in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia with a case study of Debre Markos Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1937-1944, 2011 Author(s): H. Shang, J. Yan, M. Gebremichael, and S. M. Ayalew Understanding extreme precipitation is very important for Ethiopia, which is heavily dependent on low-productivity rainfed agriculture but lacks structural and non-structural water regulating and storage mechanisms. There has been an increasing concern about whether there is an increasing trend in extreme precipitation as the climate changes. Existing analysis of this region has been descriptive, without taking advantage of the advances in extreme value modeling. After reviewing the statistical methodology on extremes, this paper presents an analysis based on the generalized extreme value modeling with daily time series of precipitation records at Debre Markos in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia. We found no strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis that there is no increasing trend in extreme precipitation at this location.

Beschreibung: A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 2025-2038, 2011 Author(s): D. Anghileri, F. Pianosi, and R. Soncini-Sessa While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The specific features of our approach are that: (i) the impact quantification is based on a set of performance indicators defined together with the stakeholders, thus explicitly taking into account the water-users preferences; (ii) the management policies are obtained by optimal control techniques, linking stakeholder expectations and decision-making; (iii) the multi-objective nature of the management problem is fully preserved by simulating a set of Pareto-optimal management policies, which allows for evaluating not only variations in the indicator values but also tradeoffs among conflicting objectives. The framework is demonstrated by application to a real world case study, Lake Como basin (Italy). We show that the most conflicting water-related activities within the basin (i.e. hydropower production and agriculture) are likely to be negatively impacted by climate change. We discuss the robustness of the estimated impacts to the climate natural variability and the approximations in modeling the physical system and the socio-economic system, and perform an uncertainty analysis of several sources of uncertainty. We demonstrate that the contribution of natural climate uncertainty is rather remarkable and that, among different modelling uncertainty sources, the one from climate modeling is very significant.

Beschreibung: :   In North America and Europe, most fatalities due to snow avalanches occur in the backcountry during recreational pursuits. Of these, more than 90% of the fatal avalanches are triggered by the victims themselves. This pattern suggests that the primary cause of avalanche fatalities for human-triggered avalanches is a failure in human perception. For the latter, people thought that the state of stability or instability of the snow cover was different than it actually was. In this paper, the strength and weight of evidence used to make decisions in backcountry travel are discussed from: (a) the perspective of the favored hypothesis to proceed for good recreational enjoyment based on stability evaluation and (b) the null hypothesis based on an assessment of instability. Based on the facts about snow slab avalanche release, it is argued that instability analysis is the best framework for avalanche forecasting, whereas human action is most closely related to the favored hypothesis (stability evaluation). Using scaling laws derived from: (a) fracture mechanics about the size of imperfections causing avalanches and (b) avalanche dimensions, it is suggested that a snow slab could show stability over more than 99% of the total area. From the concepts of Bayesian probability, it is shown that overconfidence about stability can arise when the weight of the likelihood is high and the weight of prior is low. Similarly, underconfidence (excessive conservatism) often results when the weight of the prior is high with little regard for the likelihood, which may be low. Overconfidence about stability is considered to be a prime source of accidents. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9856-y Authors D. M. McClung, Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    A susceptibility map for an area, which is representative in terms of both geologic setting and slope instability phenomena of large sectors of the Sicilian Apennines, was produced using slope units and a multiparametric univariate model. The study area, extending for approximately 90 km 2 , was partitioned into 774 slope units, whose expected landslide occurrence was estimated by averaging seven susceptibility values, determined for the selected controlling factors: lithology, mean slope gradient, stream power index at the foot, mean topographic wetness index and profile curvature, slope unit length, and altitude range. Each of the recognized 490 landslides was represented by its centroid point. On the basis of conditional analysis, the susceptibility function here adopted is the density of landslides, computed for each class. Univariate susceptibility models were prepared for each of the controlling factors, and their predictive performance was estimated by prediction rate curves and effectiveness ratio applied to the susceptibility classes. This procedure allowed us to discriminate between effective and non-effective factors, so that only the former was subsequently combined in a multiparametric model, which was used to produce the final susceptibility map. The validation of this map latter enabled us to verify the reliability and predictive performance of the model. Slope unit altitude range and length, lithology and, subordinately, stream power index at the foot of the slope unit demonstrated to be the main controlling factors of landslides, while mean slope gradient, profile curvature, and topographic wetness index gave unsatisfactory results. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9846-0 Authors E. Rotigliano, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy C. Cappadonia, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy C. Conoscenti, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy D. Costanzo, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy V. Agnesi, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    The purpose of this study is to evaluate and compare the results of applying the statistical index and the logistic regression methods for estimating landslide susceptibility in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. In order to do this, first, a landslide inventory map was constructed mainly based on investigated landslide locations from three projects conducted over the last 10 years. In addition, some recent landslide locations were identified from SPOT satellite images, fieldwork, and literature. Secondly, ten influencing factors for landslide occurrence were utilized. The slope gradient map, the slope curvature map, and the slope aspect map were derived from a digital elevation model (DEM) with resolution 20 × 20 m. The DEM was generated from topographic maps at a scale of 1:25,000. The lithology map and the distance to faults map were extracted from Geological and Mineral Resources maps. The soil type and the land use maps were extracted from National Pedology maps and National Land Use Status maps, respectively. Distance to rivers and distance to roads were computed based on river and road networks from topographic maps. In addition, a rainfall map was included in the models. Actual landslide locations were used to verify and to compare the results of landslide susceptibility maps. The accuracy of the results was evaluated by ROC analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) for the statistical index model was 0.946 and for the logistic regression model, 0.950, indicating an almost equal predicting capacity. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-32 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9844-2 Authors Dieu Tien Bui, Department of Mathematical Sciences and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003IMT, 1432 Ås, Norway Owe Lofman, Department of Mathematical Sciences and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003IMT, 1432 Ås, Norway Inge Revhaug, Department of Mathematical Sciences and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003IMT, 1432 Ås, Norway Oystein Dick, Department of Mathematical Sciences and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003IMT, 1432 Ås, Norway Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Changing characteristics of hazardous weather-related events have been arousing considerable public interest in recent years. Guangdong is an economically developed province in China and is prone to natural hazards. Using monthly precipitation data covering a period of 1956–2008 from 127 rain gauge stations, the probabilistic behaviors of SPI-based droughts were investigated with copulas functions. Results indicated a higher risk of droughts along the coastal regions and the western Guangdong, particularly the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. Joint probabilities of droughts with higher intensity and longer duration were found to have relatively even geographical distribution across Guangdong. The northern parts of Guangdong are higher in altitude and have a lower risk of droughts. Identification of regions characterized by droughts of different severity and durations across Guangdong is important for scientific management of water resource and agricultural activities and also the development of social resilience under the influence of climate changes. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9850-4 Authors Chun-Ling Liu, Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute, Guangzhou, 510611 China Qiang Zhang, Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275 China Vijay P. Singh, Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843-2117, USA Ying Cui, Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    The landslide studies can be categorized as pre- and postdisaster studies. The predisaster studies include spatial prediction of potential landslide zones known as landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ) mapping to identify the areas/locales susceptible to landslide hazard. The LSZ maps provide an assessment of the safety of existing habitations and infrastructural/functional elements and help plan further developmental activities in the hilly regions. Landslides are one of the natural geohazards that affect at least 15% of land area of India. Different types of landslides occur frequently in geodynamical active domains of the Himalayas. In India, various techniques have been developed and adopted for LSZ mapping of different regions. However, the technique for LSZ mapping is not yet standardized. The present research is an attempt in this direction only. In our earlier work (Kanungo et al. 2006 ), a detailed study on conventional, artificial neural network (ANN)- black box-, fuzzy set-based and combined neural and fuzzy weighting techniques for LSZ mapping in Darjeeling Himalayas has been documented. In this paper, other techniques such as combined neural and certainty factor concept along with combined neural and likelihood ratio techniques have been assessed in comparison with combined neural and fuzzy technique for the preparation of LSZ maps of the same study area in parts of Darjeeling Himalayas. It is observed from the present study that the LSZ map produced using combined neural and fuzzy approach appears to be the most accurate one as in this case only 2.3% of the total area is found to be categorized as very high susceptibility zone and contains 30.1% of the existing landslide area. This approach can serve as one of the key objective approaches for spatial prediction of landslide hazards in hilly terrain. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9847-z Authors D. P. Kanungo, Geotechnical Engineering Division, CSIR-Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee, India S. Sarkar, Geotechnical Engineering Division, CSIR-Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee, India Shaifaly Sharma, Geotechnical Engineering Division, CSIR-Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Movement of seasonal eddies in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and its relation with cyclonic heat potential (CHP) and cyclogenesis points have been investigated in this study using 6 years (2002–2007) of global ocean monthly analysis datasets based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) package (SODA v2.0.4) of Carton et al. ( 2005 ) and Indian Meteorological Department cyclogenesis points. The region dominated by anticyclonic eddies with CHP greater than 70 × 10 7  J/m 2 as well as good correlations (〉0.9) with sea surface height (SSH) and 26°C isothermal depth ( D 26 ) can be a potential region of cyclogenesis. The region dominated by cyclonic eddies with CHP greater than 50 × 10 7  J/m 2 and good correlation (〉0.9) with both SSH and D 26 can serve as a potential region of high-level depression. Potential cyclogenesis regions are the southern BOB (5°N–12°N) for the post-monsoon season and the head of BOB (north of 15°N) during southwest monsoon. Seven potential regions are identified for the eddy formation for different seasons, which are consistent with the cyclogenesis points. The CHP distributions alone are able to explain the cyclone tracks for the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons but not for the monsoon season. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9858-9 Authors Bishnu Kumar, Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India Arun Chakraborty, Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    To overcome the disadvantages of traditional flow analysis methods for liquefied soils that exhibit fluidization and large deformation characteristics, Smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is adopted in this study to analyze the flow processes of liquefied soils. Bingham model with the use of the Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion, the concepts of equivalent Newtonian viscosity, and the Verlet neighbor list method are introduced into the framework of SPH to build an algorithm for the analysis of flowing liquefied soils. This modeling involves a simulation of physical model test of flowing liquefied soils that can be compared with numerical results. In addition, a shaking table test is selected from the literature for SPH analysis to verify the validation of the SPH method and extend its applications. The SPH simulation can reproduce the flow processes of liquefied soils and constrain estimates of the horizontal displacement, vertical displacement, and velocity of soils after liquefaction. According to the dynamic behaviors of the materials involved, designs can be implemented to improve the seismic safety of structures. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9851-3 Authors Yu Huang, Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Weijie Zhang, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Wuwei Mao, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Chen Jin, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    The 27 November 1945 earthquake in the Makran Subduction Zone triggered a destructive tsunami that has left important problems unresolved. According to the available reports, high waves persisted along the Makran coast and at Karachi for several hours after the arrival of the first wave. Long-duration sea-level oscillations were also reported from Port Victoria, Seychelles. On the other hand, only one high wave was reported from Mumbai. Tide-gauge records of the tsunami from Karachi and Mumbai confirm these reports. While the data from Mumbai shows a single high wave, Karachi data shows that high waves persisted for more than 7 h, with maximum wave height occurring 2.8 h after the arrival of the first wave. In this paper, we analyze the cause of these persistent high waves using a numerical model. The simulation reproduces the observed features reasonably well, particularly the persistent high waves at Karachi and the single high wave at Mumbai. It further reveals that the persistent high waves along the Makran coast and at Karachi were the result of trapping of the tsunami-wave energy on the continental shelf off the Makran coast and that these coastally-trapped edge waves were trapped in the along-shore direction within a ∼300-km stretch of the continental shelf. Sensitivity experiments establish that this along-shore trapping of the tsunami energy is due to variations in the shelf width. In addition, the model simulation indicates that the reported long duration of sea-level oscillations at Port Victoria were mainly due to trapping of the tsunami energy over the large shallow region surrounding the Seychelles archipelago. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9854-0 Authors S. Neetu, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, 403004 India I. Suresh, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, 403004 India R. Shankar, The Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, 600113 India B. Nagarajan, Indian Institute of Surveying and Mapping, Survey of India, Hyderabad, 500039 India R. Sharma, Geodetic and Research Branch, Survey of India, Dehra Dun, 248001 India S. S. C. Shenoi, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad, 500055 India A. S. Unnikrishnan, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, 403004 India D. Sundar, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, 403004 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    A very severe cyclonic storm “Aila” hit West Bengal on 26 May 2009. The storm intensified when it encountered with a warm core (SST = 31°C) anti-cyclonic eddy (ACE4) in the north Bay of Bengal. The storm intensity increased by 43% due to this eddy, which is comparable with that (34%) obtained from a best fit line (derived from several numerical experiments over north-west Pacific Ocean). The shallow mixed layer of the large-scale ocean and deep mixed layer inside the eddy appear to be crucial parameters besides translation speed of the storm (Uh), ambient relative humidity and thermal stratification below mixed layer, in the storm intensification. From the eddy size and Uh, the eddy feedback factor is found to be about 0.4 (i.e. 40%), which is close to the above. Since there exists an inverse relationship between Uh and UOHC (upper ocean heat content), slow (fast) moving storms require high (low) UOHC. The warm ACE4 with a high UOHC of 149 kj/cm 2 (300% higher than the climatological value) and deep warm layer (D26 = 126 m) opposes the cooling induced by the storm and helps for the intensification of the storm through the supply of large enthalpy (latent + sensible) flux. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9837-1 Authors Y. Sadhuram, National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre (CSIR), 176, Lawsons Bay colony, Visakhapatnam, 530017 India K. Maneesha, National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre (CSIR), 176, Lawsons Bay colony, Visakhapatnam, 530017 India T. V. Ramana Murty, National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre (CSIR), 176, Lawsons Bay colony, Visakhapatnam, 530017 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Flooding is one of the major natural hazards in Taiwan, and most of the low-lying areas in Taiwan are flood-prone areas. In order to minimize loss of life and economic losses, a detailed and comprehensive decision-making tool is necessary for both flood control planning and emergency service operations. The objectives of this research were (i) to develop a hierarchical structure through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to provide preferred options for flood risk analysis, (ii) to map the relative flood risk using the geographic information system (GIS), and (iii) to integrate these two methodologies and apply them to one urban and one semi-rural area in central Taiwan. Fushin Township and the floodplain of Fazih River (1 km on either side of the channel) in Taichung City were selected for this study. In this paper, the flood risk is defined as the relative flood risk due to broken dikes or the failure of stormwater drainage systems. Seven factors were considered in relation to the failure of stormwater drainage, and five to that of broken dikes. Following well-defined procedures, flood maps were drawn based on the data collected from expert responses to a questionnaire, the field survey, satellite images, and documents from flood management agencies. The relative values of flood risk are presented using a 200-m grid for the two study areas. It is concluded that integration of AHP and GIS in flood risk assessment can provide useful detailed information for flood risk management, and the method can be easily applied to most areas in Taiwan where required data sets are readily available. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9831-7 Authors Yi-Ru Chen, School of Engineering, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Nathan, Brisbane, QLD 4111, Australia Chao-Hsien Yeh, Department of Water Resources Engineering and Conservation, Feng Chia University, No. 100 Wenhwa Road, Seatwen, Taichung, 40724 Taiwan Bofu Yu, School of Engineering, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Nathan, Brisbane, QLD 4111, Australia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung: Macroinvertebrate community responses to a dewatering disturbance gradient in a restored stream Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1771-1783, 2011 Author(s): J. D. Muehlbauer, M. W. Doyle, and E. S. Bernhardt Dewatering disturbances are common in aquatic systems and represent a relatively untapped field of disturbance ecology, yet studying dewatering events along gradients in non-dichotomous (i.e. wet/dry) terms is often difficult. Because many stream restorations can essentially be perceived as planned hydrologic manipulations, such systems can make ideal test-cases for understanding processes of hydrological disturbance. In this study we used an experimental drawdown in a 440 ha stream/wetland restoration site to assess aquatic macroinvertebrate community responses to dewatering and subsequent rewetting. The geomorphic nature of the site and the design of the restoration allowed dewatering to occur predictably along a gradient and decoupled the hydrologic response from any geomorphic (i.e. habitat heterogeneity) effects. In the absence of such heterogeneous habitat refugia, reach-scale wetted perimeter and depth conditions exerted a strong control on community structure. The community exhibited an incremental response to dewatering severity over the course of this disturbance, which was made manifest not as a change in community means but as an increase in community variability, or dispersion, at each site. The dewatering also affected inter-species abundance and distributional patterns, as dewatering and rewetting promoted alternate species groups with divergent habitat tolerances. Finally, our results indicate that rapid rewetting – analogous to a hurricane breaking a summer drought – may represent a recovery process rather than an additional disturbance and that such processes, even in newly restored systems, may be rapid.

Beschreibung:    In the framework of a regional landslide susceptibility study in southern Sicily, a test has been carried out in the Tumarrano river basin (about 80 km 2 ) aimed at characterizing its landslide susceptibility conditions by exporting a “source model”, defined and trained inside a limited (about 20 km 2 ) representative sector (the “source area”). Also, the possibility of exploiting Google Earth ™ software and photo-images databank to produce the landslide archives has been checked. The susceptibility model was defined, according to a multivariate geostatistic approach based on the conditional analysis, using unique condition units (UCUs), which were obtained by combining four selected controlling factors: outcropping lithology, steepness, plan curvature and topographic wetness index. The prediction skill of the exported model, trained with 206 landslides, is compared with the one estimated for the whole studied area, by using a complete landslide archive (703 landslides), to see to what extent the largest time/money costs needed are accounted for. The investigated area stretches in the fore-deep sector of southern Sicily, where clayey rocks, mainly referring to the Numidian Flysch and the Terravecchia Formations, largely crop out. The results of the study confirm both the exploitability of Google Earth ™ to produce landslide archive and possibility to adopt in assessing the landslide susceptibility for large basin, a strategy based on the exportation of models trained in limited representative sectors. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9870-0 Authors D. Costanzo, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy C. Cappadonia, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy C. Conoscenti, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy E. Rotigliano, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    The convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes play significant role in the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). Several convection and PBL parameterization schemes incorporate these processes in the numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of performance of parameterization schemes is essential to customize a model. In this context, six combinations of physical parameterization schemes (2 PBL Schemes, YSU and MYJ, and 3 convection schemes, KF, BM, and GD) of WRF-ARW model are employed to obtain the optimum combination for the prediction of TCs over North Indian Ocean. Five cyclones are studied for sensitivity experiments and the out-coming combination is tested on real-time prediction of TCs during 2008. The tracks are also compared with those provided by the operational centers like NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO, NCMRWF, and IMD. It is found that the combination of YSU PBL scheme with KF convection scheme (YKF) provides a better prediction of intensity, track, and rainfall consistently. The average RMSE of intensity (13 hPa in CSLP and 11 m s −1 in 10-m wind), mean track, and landfall errors is found to be least with YKF combination. The equitable threat score (ETS) of YKF combination is more than 0.2 for the prediction of 24-h accumulated rainfall up to 125 mm. The vertical structural characteristics of cyclone inner core also recommend the YKF combination for Indian seas cyclones. In the real-time prediction of 2008 TCs, the 72-, 48-, and 24-h mean track errors are 172, 129, and 155 km and the mean landfall errors are 125, 73, and 66 km, respectively. Compared with the track of leading operational agencies, the WRF model is competing in 24 h (116 km error) and 72 h (166 km) but superior in 48-h (119 km) track forecast. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9862-0 Authors Krishna K. Osuri, Indian Institute of Technology, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 India U. C. Mohanty, Indian Institute of Technology, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 India A. Routray, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, A-50, Institutional Area, Sector-62, Noida, UP, India Makarand A. Kulkarni, Indian Institute of Technology, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 India M. Mohapatra, India Meteorological Department, Lodi Road, New Delhi, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung: The geomorphic structure of the runoff peak Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1853-1863, 2011 Author(s): R. Rigon, P. D'Odorico, and G. Bertoldi This paper develops a theoretical framework to investigate the core dependence of peak flows on the geomorphic properties of river basins. Based on the theory of transport by travel times, and simple hydrodynamic characterization of floods, this new framework invokes the linearity and invariance of the hydrologic response to provide analytical and semi-analytical expressions for peak flow, time to peak, and area contributing to the peak runoff. These results are obtained for the case of constant-intensity hyetograph using the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves to estimate extreme flow values as a function of the rainfall return period. Results show that, with constant-intensity hyetographs, the time-to-peak is greater than rainfall duration and usually shorter than the basin concentration time. Moreover, the critical storm duration is shown to be independent of rainfall return period as well as the area contributing to the flow peak. The same results are found when the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion are accounted for. Further, it is shown that, when the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion are negligible, the basin area contributing to the peak discharge does not depend on the channel velocity, but is a geomorphic propriety of the basin. As an example this framework is applied to three watersheds. In particular, the runoff peak, the critical rainfall durations and the time to peak are calculated for all links within a network to assess how they increase with basin area.

Beschreibung: Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1895-1907, 2011 Author(s): G. Ibarra-Berastegi, J. Saénz, A. Ezcurra, A. Elías, J. Diaz Argandoña, and I. Errasti In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961–2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961–1996) and a test period (1997–2001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Beschreibung: The influence of constrained fossil fuel emissions scenarios on climate and water resource projections Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1879-1893, 2011 Author(s): J. D. Ward, A. D. Werner, W. P. Nel, and S. Beecham Water resources planning requires long-term projections of the impact of climate change on freshwater resources. In addition to intrinsic uncertainty associated with the natural climate, projections of climate change are subject to the combined uncertainties associated with selection of emissions scenarios, GCM ensembles and downscaling techniques. In particular, unknown future greenhouse gas emissions contribute substantially to the overall uncertainty. We contend that a reduction in uncertainty is possible by refining emissions scenarios. We present a comprehensive review of the growing body of literature that challenges the assumptions underlying the high-growth emissions scenarios (widely used in climate change impact studies), and instead points to a peak and decline in fossil fuel production occurring in the 21st century. We find that the IPCC's new RCP 4.5 scenario (low-medium emissions), as well as the B1 and A1T (low emissions) marker scenarios from the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios are broadly consistent with the majority of recent fossil fuel production forecasts, whereas the medium to high emissions scenarios generally depend upon unrealistic assumptions of future fossil fuel production. We use a simple case study of projected climate change in 2070 for the Scott Creek catchment in South Australia to demonstrate that even with the current suite of climate models, by limiting projections to the B1 scenario, both the median change and the spread of model results are reduced relative to equivalent projections under an unrealistic high emissions scenario (A1FI).

Beschreibung: Data-driven catchment classification: application to the pub problem Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1921-1935, 2011 Author(s): M. Di Prinzio, A. Castellarin, and E. Toth A promising approach to catchment classification makes use of unsupervised neural networks (Self Organising Maps, SOM's), which organise input data through non-linear techniques depending on the intrinsic similarity of the data themselves. Our study considers ∼300 Italian catchments scattered nationwide, for which several descriptors of the streamflow regime and geomorphoclimatic characteristics are available. We compare a reference classification, identified by using indices of the streamflow regime as input to SOM, with four alternative classifications, which were identified on the basis of catchment descriptors that can be derived for ungauged basins. One alternative classification adopts the available catchment descriptors as input to SOM, the remaining classifications are identified by applying SOM to sets of derived variables obtained by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) to the available catchment descriptors. The comparison is performed relative to a PUB problem, that is for predicting several streamflow indices in ungauged basins. We perform an extensive cross-validation to quantify nationwide the accuracy of predictions of mean annual runoff, mean annual flood, and flood quantiles associated with given exceedance probabilities. Results of the study indicate that performing PCA and, in particular, CCA on the available set of catchment descriptors before applying SOM significantly improves the effectiveness of SOM classifications by reducing the uncertainty of hydrological predictions in ungauged sites.

Beschreibung:    Anytime that tornadoes interface with people, the results are often grim. The varied characteristics of tornado windfields and the diverse techniques of home construction complicate the expected outcomes of such interactions. Since it is now known that tornadoes do not produce unfathomable winds, engineers have developed techniques for increasing a home’s tornado resistance; thus, increasing the odds of survival of the inhabitants. Even considering these advances, tornadoes still wreak havoc and cause much causality every year. The story of tornado survival is partly chance, partly knowledge, and partly science. This essay utilizes analogies between a popular motion picture and the state of the art of tornado-resistant construction to illustrate the good, the bad, and the ugly facts of tornado survival. First examined are the positive aspects of tornado probability. The odds of experiencing a tornado are so low that massive expenditures are not necessarily cost effective. Next, various techniques of tornado-resistant construction practices are included for new and existing structures. Introduction of equations for predicting debris penetration are compared with various building techniques to describe the viability of tornado protection. The negative aspect of tornado/structure interfaces describes the fact that despite contemporary construction and prevention exercise, the unpredictability of the tornado windfield causes tremendous damage and loss of life. The final section examines the interface between tornadoes and mobile homes. This proves very ugly in every aspect of the word. Statistics and equations confirm the inherent dangers of such an interaction. Also, described is a novel approach to the design of a portable tornado shelter. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9875-8 Authors Bobby G. McPeak, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA Atila Ertas, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Risk assessment of natural hazards is often based on the actual or forecast weather situation. For estimating such climate-related risks, it is important to obtain weather data as frequently as possible. One commonly used climate interpolation routine is DAYMET, which in its current form is not able to update its database for periods of less than a year. In this paper, we report the construction of a new climate database with a standard interface and implement a framework for providing daily updated weather data for online daily weather interpolations across regions. We re-implement the interpolation routines from DAYMET to be compliant with the data handling in the new framework. We determine the optimal number of stations used in two possible interpolation routines, assess the error bounds using an independent validation dataset and compare the results with a previous validation study based on the original DAYMET implementation. Mean absolute errors are 1°C for maximum and minimum temperature, 28 mm for precipitation, 3.2 MJ/m² for solar radiation and 1 hPa for vapour pressure deficit, which is in the range of the original DAYMET routine. Finally, we provide an example application of the methodology and derive a fire danger index for a 1 km grid over Austria. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9880-y Authors Richard Petritsch, Institute of Silviculture, BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Peter Jordan Str. 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria Hubert Hasenauer, Institute of Silviculture, BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Peter Jordan Str. 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Tropical cyclones are the most common natural disasters in coastal regions and are the most costly in terms of economic losses. Economic loss assessment is the basis for disaster prevention and alleviation and for insurance indemnification. We use data from 1970 to 2008 for Zhejiang Province, China, in this study evaluating economic losses. We convert direct economic losses from tropical cyclone disasters in Zhejiang Province into indices of direct economic losses. To establish our assessment model, we process disaster-inducing assessment factors, disaster-formative environments and disaster-affected bodies using the principal component analysis method, and we abstract the principal component as the input of a BP neural network model. We found in the actual assessments of five tropical cyclones affecting Zhejiang Province in 2007 and 2008 that the post-disaster loss assessment values of tropical cyclones were higher than the actual losses, but that for more severe storms, the gap was smaller. This reflects the beneficial effect of efforts toward disaster prevention and alleviation for severe tropical cyclones. Pre-assessments based on relatively accurate forecast values of wind and precipitation at the start of a tropical cyclone have been in accordance with the post-disaster assessment values, while the pre-assessment results using less accurate forecast values have been unsatisfactory. Therefore, this model can be applied in the actual assessment of direct economic loss from tropical cyclone damage, but increasingly accurate forecasting of wind and precipitation remains crucial to improving the accuracy of pre-assessments. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9881-x Authors Wei-ping Lou, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China Hai-yan Chen, Zhejiang Weather Station, Hangzhou, China Xin-fa Qiu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China Qi-yi Tang, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China Feng Zheng, Wenzhou Weather Bureau, Wenzhou, China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    High winds are one of the nation’s leading damage-producing storm conditions. They do not include winds from tornadoes, winter storms, nor hurricanes, but are strong winds generated by deep low pressure centers, by thunderstorms, or by air flow over mountain ranges. The annual average property and crop losses in the United States from windstorms are $379 million and windstorms during 1959–1997 caused an average of 11 deaths each year. Windstorms range in size from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands square kilometers, being largest in the western United States where 40% of all storms exceed 135,000 km 2 . In the eastern United States, windstorms occur at a given location, on average, 1.4 times a year, whereas in the western US point averages are 1.9. Midwestern states average between 15 and 20 wind storms annually; states in the east average between 10 and 25 storms per year; and West Coast states average 27–30 storms annually. Storms causing insured property losses 〉$1 million, labeled catastrophes, during 1952–2006 totaled 176, an annual average of 3.2. Catastrophic windstorm losses were highest in the West and Northwest climate regions, the only form of severe weather in the United States with maximum losses on the West Coast. Most western storms occurred in the winter, a result of Pacific lows, and California has had 31 windstorm catastrophes, more than any other state. The national temporal distribution of catastrophic windstorms during 1952–2006 has a flat trend, but their losses display a distinct upward trend with time, peaking during 1996–2006. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9828-2 Authors Stanley A. Changnon, Illinois State Water Survey, University of Illinois, 801 E. Buckthorn, Mahomet, IL 61853, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    This paper discusses the characteristics of high-impact weather events based on available data during 1960–2009, including the frequency and extreme value of rainstorm, typhoon, thunderstorm, strong wind, tornado, fog, haze and hot days in Shanghai, China. The frequency and spatial distribution of meteorological disasters and their impacts on both human and property during 1984–2009 are also discussed. Examination of the frequency indicates a decreasing trend in the occurrence of typhoon, thunderstorm, strong wind, tornado and fog, and an increasing trend in the occurrence of rainstorm, haze and hot days. The number of casualties caused by meteorological disasters appears to show a slight decreasing trend while the value of direct economic loss is increasing slightly during 1984–2009, and the number of collapsed or damaged buildings and the area of affected crops have no significant trend in Shanghai. These results can be attributed to the great efforts for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters made by Shanghai government in recent 60 years. With global climate change, urbanization and rapid economic development, Shanghai has become more vulnerable to high-impact weather and meteorological disaster, especially precipitation extreme, summer high temperature, haze and typhoon, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of natural disasters are quite useful and necessary for local government and the public in the future. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9877-6 Authors Jun Shi, Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai, 200030 China Linli Cui, Shanghai Center for Satellite Remote Sensing and Application, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai, 201100 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Like in many other parts of the world, the glaciers in northern Tien Shan are receding, and the permafrost is thawing. Concomitantly, glacial lakes are developing. Historically, outbursts of these glacial lakes have resulted in severe hazards for infrastructures and livelihood. Multi-temporal space imageries are an ideal means to study and monitor glaciers and glacial lakes over large areas. Geomorphometric analysis and modelling allows to estimate the potential danger for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This paper presents a comprehensive approach by coupling of remote sensing, geomorphometric analyses aided with GIS modelling for the identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes. We suggest a classification scheme based on an additive ratio scale in order to prioritise sites for detailed investigations. The identification and monitoring of glacial lakes was carried out semi-automatically using band ratioing and the normalised difference water index (NDWI) based on multi-temporal space imagery from the years 1971 to 2008 using Corona, ASTER and Landsat data. The results were manually edited when required. The probability of the growth of a glacial lake was estimated by analysing glacier changes, glacier motion and slope analysis. A permafrost model was developed based on geomorphometric parameters, solar radiation and regionalised temperature conditions which permitted to assess the influence of potential permafrost thawing. Finally, a GIS-based model was applied to simulate the possibly affected area of lake outbursts. The findings of this study indicate an increasing number and area of glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan region. We identified several lakes with a medium to high potential for an outburst after a classification according to their outburst probability and their downstream impact. These lakes should be investigated more in detail. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-24 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9860-2 Authors Tobias Bolch, Geographisches Institut, Universität Zürich, 8059 Zürich, Switzerland Juliane Peters, Institut für Kartographie, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany Alexandr Yegorov, Institute of Geography of Ministry of Education and Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty, Kazakhstan Biswajeet Pradhan, Institut für Kartographie, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany Manfred Buchroithner, Institut für Kartographie, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany Victor Blagoveshchensky, Institute of Geography of Ministry of Education and Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty, Kazakhstan Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Landslides cause heavy damage to property and infrastructure, in addition to being responsible for the loss of human lives in many parts of the Turkey. The paper presents GIS-based spatial data analysis for landslide susceptibility mapping in the regions of the Sultan Mountains, West of Akşehir, and central part of Turkey. Landslides occur frequently in the area and seriously affect local living conditions. Therefore, spatial analysis of landslide susceptibility in the Sultan Mountains is important. The relationships between landslide distributions with the 19 landslide affecting parameters were analysed using a Bayesian model. In the study area, 90 landslides were observed. The landslides were randomly subdivided into 80 training landslides and 10 test landslides. A landslide susceptibility map was produced by using the training landslides. The test landslides were used in the accuracy control of the produced landslide susceptibility map. Approximately 9% of the study area was classified as high susceptibility zone. Medium, low and very low susceptibility zones covered 8, 23 and 60% of the study area, respectively. Most of the locations of the observed landslides actually fall into moderate (17.78%) and high (77.78. %) susceptibility zones of the produced landslide susceptibility map. This validates the applicability of proposed methods, approaches and the classification scheme. The high susceptibility zone is along both sides of the Akşehir Fault and at the north-eastern slope of the Sultan Mountains. It was determined that the surface area of the Harlak and Deresenek formations, which have attained lithological characteristics of clayey limestone with a broken and separated base, and where area landslides occur, possesses an elevation of 1,100–1,600 m, a slope gradient of 25°–35° and a slope aspect of 22.5°–157.5° facing slopes. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-35 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9853-1 Authors Adnan Ozdemir, Department of Geological Engineering, Selcuk University, Konya, Turkey Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung: Editorial for the special issue: vulnerability to natural hazards—the challenge of integration Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9825-5 Authors Sven Fuchs, Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Peter-Jordan-Str. 82, 1190 Wien, Austria Christian Kuhlicke, Department of Urban and Environmental Sociology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany Volker Meyer, Department of Economics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    A comparative analysis of six vulnerability models aims to identify differences and similarities between several approaches towards understanding vulnerability. The analysis yields a set of characteristics for explaining the condition of vulnerability (multiple contexts, multiple dimensions, temporal variability, multiple scales and scale-interdependency). In addition, ‘adaptation’ and ‘adaptive capacity’ are identified as key elements of vulnerability. The results of the analysis are put into a wider context not only of vulnerability but also of resilience and risk research. It is demonstrated that ‘adaptation’ and ‘adaptive capacity’ serve as hinges not only for conceptualising vulnerability but between ‘vulnerability’ and ‘resilience’ alike. Based on the results of the comparative analysis, a model of vulnerability focussing on the household and community scale is developed, which displays the key findings of this work. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9823-7 Authors Gabi Hufschmidt, Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    In this paper, impact of Indian Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) data, i.e., reflectivity ( Z ), radial velocity (Vr) data individually and in combination has been examined for simulation of mesoscale features of a land-falling cyclone with Advance Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Model at 9-km horizontal resolution. The radial velocity and reflectivity observations from DWR station, Chennai (lat. 13.0°N and long. 80.0°E), are assimilated using the ARPS Data Assimilation System (ADAS) and cloud analysis scheme of the model. The case selected for this study is the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone NISHA of 27–28 November 2008. The study shows that the ARPS model with the assimilation of radial wind and reflectivity observations of DWR, Chennai, could simulate mesoscale characteristics, such as number of cells, spiral rain band structure, location of the center and strengthening of the lower tropospheric winds associated with the land-falling cyclone NISHA. The evolution of 850 hPa wind field super-imposed vorticity reveals that the forecast is improved in terms of the magnitude and direction of lower tropospheric wind, time, and location of cyclone in the experiment when both radial wind and reflectivity observations are used. With the assimilation of both radial wind and reflectivity observations, model could reproduce the rainfall pattern in a more realistic way. The results of this study are found to be very promising toward improving the short-range mesoscale forecasts. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9835-3 Authors Kuldeep Srivastava, India Meteorological Department, Lodi Road, New Delhi, 110003 India Rashmi Bhardwaj, Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Kashmere Gate, Delhi, 110403 India S. K. Roy Bhowmik, India Meteorological Department, Lodi Road, New Delhi, 110003 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    This paper explores the advantages of applying the concept of social-ecological resilience (SER) and the related thinking in transdisciplinary research. The theoretical reflections are exemplified by transdisciplinary research experiences using the concept of SER as a bridging concept in the field of climate-change adaptation instead of developing a new and very context-specific conceptual bridge. The findings are based on ontological reflections concerning the complex and hybrid phenomenon of climate change and the need for transdisciplinary research as well as on reflections on the performed interdisciplinary research and the exploratory transdisciplinary research approach with practitioners from the German administration. The experiences so far have shown that it was more focused on the general ideas of social-ecological resilience thinking instead of using the concept of SER as an analytical tool. We conclude that the use of a common conceptual framework in general and of social-ecological resilience thinking in particular offers tangible advantages in transdisciplinary research dealing with climate change and adaptation to the impacts of climate change. In our case, social-ecological resilience thinking helped—after translation into practical terms—to open the field for further consideration from the very beginning as well as to open the space for common creative work; to define the problem; and to choose the relevant variables to look at. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9821-9 Authors Sonja Deppisch, HafenCity University Hamburg, Winterhuder Weg 31, 22085 Hamburg, Germany Sanin Hasibovic, HafenCity University Hamburg, Winterhuder Weg 31, 22085 Hamburg, Germany Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    A 97-day-long record on waves and currents was obtained using wave rider buoy and current meter moored at 2.5 km off Gopalpur from 19 May to 23 August 2008 representing southwest monsoon months. A Valeport tide gauge was used to record water level at Gopalpur port. Simultaneously, beach profiles at 4 transects were monitored using real-time kinematic (RTK) global positioning system (GPS). A total of 636,167 waves were analyzed for the period; a range of 3,200–9,700 waves approach the coast in an individual day. During the study, unusual characteristics of wave were observed on July 29, 2008, with a magnitude of significant wave height, H s  = 2.85 m, maximum wave height, H max  = 5.22 m, and peak wave period, T p  = 10.2 s, and on August 11, 2008, with H s  = 2.28 m, H max  = 5.37 m, and T p  = 11.1 s. Significant beach loss was noticed during these periods, and severe erosion was recorded on August 1, 2008. Beach profile data indicates that 18–58 cu. m/m sediment was lost during the study period. The paper provides an overview of the statistical analysis of wave heights, periods, direction, and spectral energy density and explains the cause of coastal erosion and loss of sediment. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9826-4 Authors P. Mishra, ICMAM Project Directorate, NIOT Campus, Pallikaranai, Chennai, 600100 India S. K. Patra, National Institute of Ocean Technology, NIOT Campus, Pallikaranai, Chennai, 600100 India M. V. Ramana Murthy, National Institute of Ocean Technology, NIOT Campus, Pallikaranai, Chennai, 600100 India P. K. Mohanty, Department of Marine Sciences, Berhampur University, Berhampur, Orissa, 760007 India U. S. Panda, ICMAM Project Directorate, NIOT Campus, Pallikaranai, Chennai, 600100 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    In this paper, an integrated urban earthquake vulnerability assessment framework, which considers vulnerability of urban environment in a holistic manner and performs the vulnerability assessment for the neighborhood scale, is proposed. The main motivation behind this approach is the inability to implement existing vulnerability assessment methodologies for countries like Turkey, where the required data are usually missing or inadequate for the decision-makers in prioritization their limited resources for risk reduction in the administrative units from which they are responsible for. The methodology integrates socio-economical, structural, coastal, ground condition, vulnerabilities (fragilities), as well as accessibility to critical services. The proposed methodology is implemented for Eskisehir, which is one of the metropolitans of Turkey. In the implementation of the proposed framework, geographic information system (GIS) is used. While the overall vulnerabilities obtained for neighborhoods are mapped in GIS, the overall vulnerabilities obtained for buildings are visualized in 3D city model. The main reason behind using different mapping and visualization tools for vulnerabilities is to provide better ways for communicating with decision-makers. The implementation of the proposed vulnerability assessment methodology indicates that an urban area may have different vulnerability patterns in terms of structural, socio-economical, and accessibility to critical services. When such patterns are investigated, effective vulnerability reduction policies can be designed by the decision-makers. The proposed methodology well serves for this purpose. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-31 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9808-6 Authors H. S. B. Duzgun, Geodetic and Geographical Information Technologies and Earthquake Studies Department, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey M. S. Yucemen, Civil Engineering and Earthquake Studies Departments, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey H. S. Kalaycioglu, Department of Sociology, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey K. Celik, Department of Sociology, Ondokuz Mayıs University, Samsun, Turkey S. Kemec, Geodetic and Geographical Information Technologies and Earthquake Studies Department, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey K. Ertugay, Geodetic and Geographical Information Technologies and Earthquake Studies Department, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey A. Deniz, Technological Engineering Services Co. Ltd., Po Box 45, Aksu, Ankara, Turkey Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Quantification of landslide susceptibility variability in space and time in response to static and dynamic conditions is a fundamental research challenge. Here, we identify and apply new modeling and remote sensing observation techniques to statistically characterize susceptibility distributions under dynamic moisture conditions. The methods are applied at two study regions: Cleveland Corral, California, US and Dhading, Nepal. The results show that the temporal variability of safety factors is lower during the wet season than the dry season, but this variability, when scaled by mean seasonal stability, is constant annually. Relative variability differs by region with lower variability in Nepal, the highly susceptible region. L-Moment evaluations indicate that Nepal has a consistent, regional probability distribution, but that California has two distinct distributions. The variability in time is not normally distributed for either region. For both regions, transitional characteristic of safety factors show a strong power law relationship between the average duration and number of periods during which sites are highly susceptible. Because the mapped landslide locations typically had frequent crossings with brief unstable conditions, a consistent physical mechanism is pointed to as a possible cause of slope failure. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9834-4 Authors Ram L. Ray, Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Dr., San Diego, CA 92182, USA Jennifer M. Jacobs, Environmental Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of New Hampshire, 35 Colovos Rd., Durham, NH 03824, USA Thomas P. Ballestero, Environmental Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of New Hampshire, 35 Colovos Rd., Durham, NH 03824, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Pakistan is exposed to numerous hazards, but the problem of recurrent floods has been causing massive losses to lives and other properties. Swat valley is no exception to it. In this paper, an attempt has been made to analyse the causes and associated socio-economic impacts of floods on the Swat valley, Pakistan. Swat valley falls in the Hindukush region, North-west-Pakistan. The valley has been studied with special reference to its physical and socio-economic environment. Similarly, three-sample villages were also randomly selected from the active floodplain for micro-level analysis. The sample villages include Ningolai, Delay and Ghureijo. All the three-sample communities are located on the right bank of river Swat. This area is located in the active flood zone of Swat valley. The analysis revealed that in the study area, floods occur during summer season, which is mainly caused by heavy rainfall as well as rapid melting of snow and glacier. Besides these, there are some floods intensifying factors, which accelerate intensity of floods and enhance resultant damages in the valley. It was found that during flood season, water overflows the natural levees and trigger tremendous loses to housing, agricultural land, standing crops and other properties. The flood-related Government Departments have only implemented limited structural mitigation measures. However, in addition to structural measure, land-use zoning and flood abatement strategies would largely help in reducing the adverse consequences of this recurrent phenomenon. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9830-8 Authors Atta-ur-Rahman, Department of Geography, Urban and Regional Planning, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan Amir Nawaz Khan, Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    On October 4, 2010, the embankment of No. 10 red mud—waste product during bauxite refining—reservoir of MAL Co. Ltd. alumina plant collapsed. Around 700 000 cubic meter of alkaline slurry with 11–13 pH value flooded three nearby settlements. Ten people were killed, 123 wounded, and about 350 houses were damaged or became uninhabitable in one of the biggest industrial and ecological catastrophe in modern history of Hungary. Synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) is the only geodetic technique that can reveal the past stability and motion history of the broken reservoir. We performed a persistent scatterer InSAR (PSI) analysis to contribute to the better understanding of the disaster. The key question we address in this study is whether there were signs prior to October 4th event which may have prognosticated the disaster. The PSI results could reveal if the dam was stable in the past without prior signs of the failure or there were definite indications of deformation before the collapse and proper monitoring of motions could have highlighted the risk and the disaster may have been prevented. This is a rare event and its PSI study is unique and may be critical in understanding it and helping to prevent other similar occurrences. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-7 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9816-6 Authors Gyula Grenerczy, Satellite Geodetic Observatory, Institute of Geodesy Cartography and Remote Sensing, PO Box 585, 1592 Budapest, Hungary Urs Wegmüller, Gamma Remote Sensing, Worbstrasse 225, 3073 Gümligen, Switzerland Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    A significant part of Campania is extensively covered by volcaniclastic soils, deriving from the alteration of airfall-sedimented formations of layered ashes and pumices that were ejected by Campi Flegrei and Mt. Somma–Vesuvius during explosive eruptions. Where such soils cover steep slopes cut in carbonate bedrock, landforms depend essentially on the morpho-evolution of such slopes prior to the deposition of the volcaniclastic soils, because these are generally present only as thin veneers, up to a few meters of total thickness. Historical records and local literature testify that, in this part of Campania, landslides that originate on carbonate slopes covered by such soils and terminate at their foot or at gully outlets are frequent, following critical rainfall events. Such landslides can be classified as complex , occurring initially as debris slides, but rapidly evolving into debris avalanches and/or debris flows. The localization of the initial sliding areas (i.e. “sources”) on the slopes depends on both the spatial distribution of characters of the soil cover and the spatial distribution of the triggering rainfall events. It therefore appears reasonable to separate the two aspects of the problem and focus on the former one, in order to attempt an assessment of soil sliding susceptibility in the event of landslide-triggering rainfall. In this paper, some results of the application of a method aimed at such an assessment are presented. The method, called SLIDE (from SLiding Initiation areas DEtection), is based on the concept that, for a spatially homogeneous soil cover and a spatially homogeneous landslide-triggering rainfall sequence, different values of threshold slope gradient for limit equilibrium conditions exist, depending on morphological characters of the soil cover, such as its continuity and planform curvature. The method is based on the assessment of (1) soil cover presence, (2) discontinuities within soil cover, (3) slope gradients and curvature, by means of good resolution DEMs. It has been applied to sample carbonate slopes of Campania, where landslides originated either repeatedly or recently. Results are encouraging, and a soil sliding susceptibility map of a large area, based on a simplified version of method, is also presented. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9807-7 Authors Sebastiano Perriello Zampelli, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Napoli Federico II, Naples, Italy Eliana Bellucci Sessa, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia—Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, Italy Marco Cavallaro, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Napoli Federico II, Naples, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    An evidence-based flood hazard analysis in mountain streams requires the identification and the quantitative characterisation of multiple possible processes. These processes result from specific triggering mechanisms on the hillslopes (i.e. landslides, debris flows), in-channel morphodynamic processes associated with sudden bed changes and stochastic processes taking place at critical stream configurations (e.g. occlusion of bridges, failure of levees). From a hazard assessment perspective, such possible processes are related to considerable uncertainties underlying the hydrological cause-effect chains. Overcoming these uncertainties still remains a major challenge in hazard and risk assessment and represents a necessary condition for a reliable spatial representation of process intensities and the associated probabilities. As a result of an accurate analysis of the conceptual flaws present in the procedures currently employed for hazard mapping in South Tyrol (Italy) and Carinthia (Austria), we propose a structured approach as a means to enhance the integration of hillslope, morphodynamic and stochastic processes into conventional flood hazard prediction for mountain basins. To this aim, a functional distinction is introduced between prevailing one-dimensional and two-dimensional process propagation domains, i.e., between confined and semi- to unconfined stream segments. The former domains are mostly responsible for the generation of water, sediment and wood fluxes, and the latter are where flooding of inactive channel areas (i.e. alluvial fans, floodplains) can occur. For the 1D process propagation domain, we discuss how to carry out a process routing along the stream system and how to integrate numerical models output with expert judgement in order to derive consistent event scenarios, thus providing a consistent quantification of the input variables needed for the associated 2D domains. Within these latter domains, two main types of spatial sub-domains can be identified based on the predictability of their dynamics, i.e., stochastic and quasi-deterministic. Advantages and limitations offered by this methodology are finally discussed with respect to hazard and risk assessment in mountain basins. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9811-y Authors B. Mazzorana, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Autonomous Province of Bolzano South Tyrol, Bolzano, Italy F. Comiti, Faculty of Science and Technology, Free University of Bolzano, Bolzano, Italy S. Fuchs, Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    This paper deals with coping and adaptation processes to natural hazards and (potential) climate change impacts. Selected response measures to natural hazards are critically reviewed with respect to the actual and potential consequences that these measures might imply for additional adaptation needs and changes within social-ecological systems. In this context, the author introduces the concept of first- and second-order adaptation processes in order to underline the cascade process that adaptation implies, the potentials for failure, and the limits of adaptation. Important aspects of first- and second-order adaptation processes as well as the issue of the limits of adaptation are illustrated based on observations and empirical work conducted in Vietnam. In its final part, the paper discusses the findings in light of selected theoretical approaches that might help to understand how stabilization and destabilization processes are influenced or even triggered by adaptation measures. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-30 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9806-8 Authors Jörn Birkmann, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University, UN Campus, Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10, 53113 Bonn, Germany Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    There is an increasing concern that the current management practices for many coastal regions are unsustainable. Very few countries have planned to deal with the exacerbation of environmental decline in the face of sea level rise. It is therefore necessary to assess socioeconomic and environmental impacts of sea level rises to better understand the vulnerability of coastal zones, as part of devising adaptive and integrated management principles. This paper presents a systematic approach by which relevant stakeholders can be actively engaged in prioritising flood impact issues and deriving information for quantification of impacts for adaptation measures and demonstrates the approach through implementation in the Gippsland coastal region. As outcomes of the project, we have identified key issues of concern for this region for flood impacts and constructed synthetic response functions for quantification of impacts of floods on some of the key issues in the region. The analysis also showed that stakeholders consider that some of the issues are not likely to be significantly affected by floods and thus may not require adaptation measures. The analysis did not provide high agreement on some issues. Different approaches are required to assess the importance of these issues and to establish impact response functions for them. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9812-x Authors Dushmanta Dutta, SASE, Monash University, Churchill, VIC 3842, Australia Wendy Wright, SASE, Monash University, Churchill, VIC 3842, Australia Philip Rayment, SASE, Monash University, Churchill, VIC 3842, Australia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    A coupled 2D mathematical modelling study of landslide dam failure and flood is presented, complementing our experimental investigation presented in the companion paper. The model is built upon the shallow water hydrodynamic equations. The governing equations are numerically solved using the total-variation-diminishing version of the second-order weighted-average-flux method along with the HLLC (Harten, Lax and van Leer with Contact wave restored) approximate Riemann solver. Two parameters related to bed-load sediment transport and critical slope stability are calibrated using the measured stage hydrographs from two runs of the flume experiments. The calibrated model is then applied to other independent runs of the experiments featuring different inflow discharges, dam geometry, dam composition and initial breach dimensions. It is found to be able to satisfactorily reproduce the measured stage hydrographs and the widening of initial breach. The experimental observation of the prime role of the inflow discharge and initial breach in dictating the dam failure process and flood is unequivocally resolved, along with the impacts of dam geometry as well the content of cohesive clay and gravel in the dam. Interestingly, the downstream peak discharge and stage of the flood are substantially reduced by initial breach, which clearly exemplifies its role in modulating the flooding. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-25 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9815-7 Authors Zhixian Cao, State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072 China Zhiyuan Yue, Yangtze River Waterway Research Institute, Wuhan, China Gareth Pender, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Landslide dam failure can trigger catastrophic flooding in the downstream. However, field observation of such flooding is rarely available, while laboratory experimental studies are sparse. The mechanism of landslide dam failure and the flood has so far remained insufficiently understood. Here, we present an experimental investigation of landslide dam failure and the flood. A total of 28 runs of experiments are carried out in a flume of 80 m × 1.2 m × 0.8 m, with differing inflow discharge, dam composition, dam geometry, and initial breach dimension. An array of twelve automatic water-level probes is deployed to measure the stage hydrographs along the flume, and the video recording of the dam failure processes facilitates an estimation of the widening of initial breach. Under the present experimental conditions with dams composed of homogeneous materials, landslide dam failure is primarily caused by erosion of overtopping flow, and lateral mass collapse is also considerable during the cause of breach widening. Cohesive clay may act to mitigate the seepage through the dam and thus its subsidence and appreciably modulate the dam failure process and the flood. However, the impacts of clay may be readily overwhelmed by a large inflow discharge and initial breach. Gravels in the dam may appreciably depress the rate of the dam failure process and thus modify the flood. The present work provides new experimental data set for testing mathematical models of the flood flow due to landslide dam failure. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9814-8 Authors Zhixian Cao, State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072 China Zhiyuan Yue, Yangtze River Waterway Research Institute, Wuhan, China Gareth Pender, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    This study classifies the vegetation status to determine the factors affecting grassland succession retardation in the Juifang area. Data derived from Land Use Investigation of Taiwan, GIS techniques, multivariate analysis, and on-site investigation was applied in this research. Discriminant analysis shows that forests that have low human disturbance cannot be correctly identified and classified by the topography and soil depth. This indicates that the topography and soil depth in the Juifang area are not the limiting factors of forest growth. Grasslands are usually susceptible to periodic wildfires. This can be used as an environmental index for disturbed and/or polluted soils. Comparing the current vegetation status with the vegetation distribution derived from discriminant analysis, potential wildfire frequency can be estimated. Acid sulfate soils and copper-contaminated soils are the major polluted soils in the Juifang area. Because the Juifang area is an important coal field in northern Taiwan, acid sulfate can be easily found in the spoiled soils of several mining spots due to sulfur oxidation from the soil and/or rock layers dug out during mining operations. Copper-contaminated soils were detected at the sites near the Li-Lo Copper Refining Plant and Taiwan Metal Mining Company. Polluted soils and periodic wildfires inhibiting the invasion of trees are the major factors retarding the succession of grasslands in the Juifang area. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9813-9 Authors Chao-Yuan Lin, Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Chung Hsing University, 250 Kuo Kuang Road, Taichung, 402 Taiwan, ROC Chin-Wei Chuang, Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Chung Hsing University, 250 Kuo Kuang Road, Taichung, 402 Taiwan, ROC Chang-Hai Chien, Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Chung Hsing University, 250 Kuo Kuang Road, Taichung, 402 Taiwan, ROC Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    The study analyses the numbers of days with strong winds in Krakow during the period 2000–2007 using anemometric records and fire department data. Patterns are identified in the seasonal and annual variation of strong winds. Particular attention is devoted to extreme events. Based on measurements, the study finds that strong winds mostly occurred in winter. Fire department call-out data show that repair of damage caused by strong winds and gusts of wind was needed equally as frequently in summertime. Strong winds accompanying summer storms are often of a local nature and are not always recorded by weather stations. Wind damage was mapped using requests for fire department assistance. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9809-5 Authors Joanna Więcław-Michniewska, Department of Geography of Population, Settlement and Farming, Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Jagiellonian University, Gronostajowa 7, 30-387 Krakow, Poland Katarzyna Piotrowicz, Department of Climatology, Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Jagiellonian University, Gronostajowa 7, 30-387 Krakow, Poland Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    Jakarta is the capital city of Indonesia with a population of about 9.6 million people, inhabiting an area of about 660 square-km. In the last three decades, urban development of Jakarta has grown very rapidly in the sectors of industry, trade, transportation, real estate, and many others. This exponentially increased urban development introduces several environmental problems. Land subsidence is one of them. The resulted land subsidence will also then affect the urban development plan and process. It has been reported for many years that several places in Jakarta are subsiding at different rates. The leveling surveys, GPS survey methods, and InSAR measurements have been used to study land subsidence in Jakarta, over the period of 1982–2010. In general, it was found that the land subsidence exhibits spatial and temporal variations, with the rates of about 1–15 cm/year. A few locations can have the subsidence rates up to about 20–28 cm/year. There are four different types of land subsidence that can be expected to occur in the Jakarta basin, namely: subsidence due to groundwater extraction, subsidence induced by the load of constructions (i.e., settlement of high compressibility soil), subsidence caused by natural consolidation of alluvial soil, and tectonic subsidence. It was found that the spatial and temporal variations of land subsidence depend on the corresponding variations of groundwater extraction, coupled with the characteristics of sedimentary layers and building loads above it. In general, there is strong relation between land subsidence and urban development activities in Jakarta. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9866-9 Authors Hasanuddin Z. Abidin, Geodesy Research Division, Institute of Technology Bandung, Jl. Ganesha 10, Bandung, Indonesia Heri Andreas, Geodesy Research Division, Institute of Technology Bandung, Jl. Ganesha 10, Bandung, Indonesia Irwan Gumilar, Geodesy Research Division, Institute of Technology Bandung, Jl. Ganesha 10, Bandung, Indonesia Yoichi Fukuda, Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan Yusuf E. Pohan, Jakarta Provincial Agency of Industry and Mining, Jl. MT Haryono, Jakarta, 52–53 Indonesia T. Deguchi, School of Engineering, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    A method of initializing tropical cyclones in high-resolution numerical models is developed by modifying a data assimilation system, the NRL atmospheric variational data assimilation system (NAVDAS), which was designed for general mesoscale weather prediction using a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) analysis with intermittent updates. The method includes the following three upgrades to overcome difficulties resulting from tropical cyclone initialization with the NAVDAS analysis. First, synthetic observation soundings are generated on 9 vertical levels at 49 points for strong storms ( v max  〉 23.1 m s −1 ) and 41 points for weak storms around each cyclone center to supplement the observations used by the analysis. Secondly, a vortex relocation method for nested grids is developed to correct the cyclone position in the background fields of the analysis for each nested mesh. Lastly, the 3DVAR analysis is modified to gradually reduce the horizontal length scale and geostrophic coupling constraint near the center of a tropical cyclone for minimizing the problems introduced by improper covariances and coupling constraint used in the analysis. The synthetic observations significantly improve the intensity and structure of the analysis and the track forecast. The vortex relocation significantly improves the first guess background, avoiding the large analysis corrections that would be needed to correct cyclone position, and reducing the imbalance introduced by such large analysis increments. The modifications to the analysis length scale and geostrophic coupling constraint successfully improve the inner core analysis, providing a tighter circulation, and reducing the underestimate of the mass field gradient. Among the three upgrades, the vortex relocation provides the largest improvement to the tropical cyclone initialization and forecast. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9838-0 Authors Chi-Sann Liou, Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA, USA Keith D. Sashegyi, Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung: River flow time series using least squares support vector machines Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1835-1852, 2011 Author(s): R. Samsudin, P. Saad, and A. Shabri This paper proposes a novel hybrid forecasting model known as GLSSVM, which combines the group method of data handling (GMDH) and the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). The GMDH is used to determine the useful input variables which work as the time series forecasting for the LSSVM model. Monthly river flow data from two stations, the Selangor and Bernam rivers in Selangor state of Peninsular Malaysia were taken into consideration in the development of this hybrid model. The performance of this model was compared with the conventional artificial neural network (ANN) models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), GMDH and LSSVM models using the long term observations of monthly river flow discharge. The root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation ( R ) are used to evaluate the models' performances. In both cases, the new hybrid model has been found to provide more accurate flow forecasts compared to the other models. The results of the comparison indicate that the new hybrid model is a useful tool and a promising new method for river flow forecasting.

Beschreibung: Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1819-1833, 2011 Author(s): M. Renner and C. Bernhofer Recently, climatological studies report observational evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier timing of the annual cycle of surface temperature, earlier snow melt and earlier onset of the phenological spring season. Also hydrological studies report earlier timing and changes in monthly streamflows. From a water resources management perspective, there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins. Here, the timing of hydrological regimes from 1930–2009 was investigated in a network of 27 river gauges in Saxony/Germany through a timing measure derived by harmonic function approximation of annual periods of runoff ratio series. The timing measure proofed to be robust and equally applicable to both mainly pluvial river basins and snow melt dominated regimes. We found that the timing of runoff ratio is highly variable, but markedly coherent across the basins analysed. Differences in average timing are largely explained by basin elevation. Also the magnitude of low frequent changes in the seasonal timing of streamflow and the sensitivity to the changes in the timing of temperature increase with basin elevation. This sensitivity is in turn related to snow storage and release, whereby snow cover dynamics in late winter explain a large part of the low- and high-frequency variability. A trend analysis based on cumulative anomalies revealed a common structural break around the year 1988. While the timing of temperature shifted earlier by 4 days, accompanied by a temperature increase of 1 K, the timing of runoff ratio within higher basins shifted towards occurring earlier about 1 to 3 weeks. This accelerated and distinct change indicates, that impacts of climate change on the water cycle may be strongest in higher, snow melt dominated basins.

Beschreibung: Modelling the statistical dependence of rainfall event variables through copula functions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1959-1977, 2011 Author(s): M. Balistrocchi and B. Bacchi In many hydrological models, such as those derived by analytical probabilistic methods, the precipitation stochastic process is represented by means of individual storm random variables which are supposed to be independent of each other. However, several proposals were advanced to develop joint probability distributions able to account for the observed statistical dependence. The traditional technique of the multivariate statistics is nevertheless affected by several drawbacks, whose most evident issue is the unavoidable subordination of the dependence structure assessment to the marginal distribution fitting. Conversely, the copula approach can overcome this limitation, by dividing the problem in two distinct parts. Furthermore, goodness-of-fit tests were recently made available and a significant improvement in the function selection reliability has been achieved. Herein the dependence structure of the rainfall event volume, the wet weather duration and the interevent time is assessed and verified by test statistics with respect to three long time series recorded in different Italian climates. Paired analyses revealed a non negligible dependence between volume and duration, while the interevent period proved to be substantially independent of the other variables. A unique copula model seems to be suitable for representing this dependence structure, despite the sensitivity demonstrated by its parameter towards the threshold utilized in the procedure for extracting the independent events. The joint probability function was finally developed by adopting a Weibull model for the marginal distributions.

Beschreibung:    The goal of this paper is to assess the landslide susceptibility of a hilly area in the Subcarpathian sector of the Prahova Valley, using the weight of evidence statistical method. This method aims to reduce the multitude of landslide-related conditions to a pattern of a few discrete predictive variables. The method is based on the decision of which state is more likely to occur grounded on the presence or absence of a predictive variable and the occurrence of an event (e.g., landslide) within a pixel. Based on the chi-square test and the Pearson correlation applied on the data, the selected conditionally independent variables in this study were as follows: slope gradient , slope aspect , and land use. Weights calculated individually for the three themes were added to produce a probability estimate of the area. The predictive power of the map was tested on the basis of a split sample of landslides that were not used in the modeling process. The fact that a great percent of the declivitous surfaces are susceptible to landslides shows the dominant manner of the evolution of the Subcarpathian slopes, the acceleration or deceleration of the process being influenced by the land use. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9879-4 Authors Iuliana Armaş, Department of Geomorphology, Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung:    This paper presents two types of analysis: an antecedent rainfall analysis based on daily rainfall and an intensity-duration analysis of rainfall events based on hourly data in perialpine Slovenia in the Škofjeloško Cerkljansko hills. For this purpose, eight rainfall events that are known to have caused landslides in the period from 1990 to 2010 were studied. Over the observed period, approximately 400 records of landslides were collected. Rainfall data were obtained from three rain gauges. The daily rainfall from the 30 days before landslide events was investigated based on the type of landslides and their geo-environmental setting, the dates of confirmed landslide activity and different consecutive rainfall periods. The analysis revealed that the rainfall events triggering slope failure can be divided into two groups according to the different antecedent periods. The first group of landslides typically occurred after short-duration rainstorms with high intensity, when the daily rainfall exceeded the antecedent rainfall. The second group comprises the rainfall events with a longer antecedent period of at least 7 days. A comparison of the plotted peak and mean intensities indicates that the rainfall patterns that govern slope failure are similar but do not necessarily reflect the rainfall intensity at the time of shallow landslides in the Davča or Poljane areas, where the majority of the landslides occurred. Because of several limitations, the suggested threshold cannot be compared and evaluated with other thresholds. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9882-9 Authors Mateja Jemec, Geological Survey of Slovenia, Dimičeva Ulica 14, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia Marko Komac, Geological Survey of Slovenia, Dimičeva Ulica 14, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung: Copula-based downscaling of spatial rainfall: a proof of concept Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1445-1457, 2011 Author(s): M. J. van den Berg, S. Vandenberghe, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest Fine-scale rainfall data is important for many hydrological applications. However, often the only data available is at a coarse scale. To bridge this gap in resolution, stochastic disaggregation methods can be used. Such methods generally assume that the distribution of the field is stationary, i.e. the distribution for the entire (fine-scale) field is the same as the distribution of a smaller region within the field. This assumption is generally incorrect and we provide a proof of concept of a method to estimate the distribution of a smaller region. In this method, a copula is used to construct a bivariate distribution describing the relation between the scales. This distribution is then used to estimate the distribution of the fine-scale rainfall within a single coarse-scale pixel, by conditioning on the coarse-scale rainfall depth.

Beschreibung: Estimations of tidal characteristics and aquifer parameters via tide-induced head changes in coastal observation wells Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1473-1482, 2011 Author(s): Y.-J. Chen, G.-Y. Chen, H.-D. Yeh, and D.-S. Jeng The groundwater fluctuations due to tidal variations at an observation well in a coastal aquifer can be used to determine the tidal characteristics and aquifer parameters without conducting an aquifer test. In this study, a method, comprised of Jeng et al.'s solution (2005) and simulated annealing (SA) algorithm, is developed to determine the coastal aquifer parameters (hydraulic diffusivity, beach slope, and aquifer thickness) as well as the tidal characteristics (bichromatic-tide amplitudes, bichromatic-tide wave frequencies, and tidal phase lag) from the analysis of the tide-induced well-water-level (WWL) data. The synthetic WWL data generated from Jeng et al.'s solution (2005) with assumed parameter values and field data obtained from Barrenjoey beach, Australia, are analyzed. The estimated parameter values obtained from analyzing synthetic WWL data by the present method show good agreements with the previously assumed parameter values. The parameter estimation procedure may however fail in the case of a large shallow water parameter which in fact violates the constraint on the use of Jeng et al.'s solution (2005). In the analysis of field WWL data, the results indicate that the aquifer parameters estimated from the present method with single or multiple well data are significantly different from those given in Nielsen (1990). Inspecting the observed WWL data and the WWL data predicted from Jeng et al.'s solution (2005) reveals that the present method may provide better estimations for the aquifer parameters than those given in Nielsen (1990).

Beschreibung:    Assessment and inventory on soil erosion hazard are essential for the formulation of successful hazard mitigation plans and sustainable development. The objective of this study was to assess and map soil erosion hazard in Lesser Himalaya with a case study. The Dabka watershed constitutes a part of the Kosi Basin in the Lesser Himalaya, India, in district Nainital has been selected for the case illustration. The average rate of erosion hazard is 0.68 mm/year or 224 tons/km 2 /year. Anthropogenic and geo-environmental factors have together significantly accelerated the rate of erosion. This reconnaissance study estimates the erosion rate over the period of 3 years (2006–2008) as 1.21 mm/year (398 tons/km 2 /year) in the barren land having geological background of diamictite, siltstone and shale rocks, 0.92 mm/year (302 tons/km 2 /year) in the agricultural land with lithology of diamictite, slates, siltstone, limestone rocks, while in the forest land, it varies between 0.20 mm/year (66 tons/km 2 /year) under dense forest land having the geology of quartzwacke and quartrenite rocks and 0.40 mm/year (132 tons/km 2 /year) under open forest/shrubs land having geological setup of shale, dolomite and gypsum rocks. Compared to the intensity of erosion in the least disturbed dense forest, the erosion rate is about 5–6 times higher in the most disturbed agricultural land and barren land, respectively. The erosion hazard zones delineated following scalogram modelling approach. Integrated scalogram modelling approach resulted in severe classes of soil erosion hazard in the study area with numerical values of Erosion Hazard Index (EHI) ranging between 01 (very low hazard) and 5 (very high hazard). Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9833-5 Authors Pradeep K. Rawat, Department of Geography, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India P. C. Tiwari, Department of Geography, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India C. C. Pant, Department of Geology, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India A. K. Sharama, Department of Geology, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India P. D. Pant, Department of Geology, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung: Regional scale analysis of landform configuration with base-level (isobase) maps Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1493-1504, 2011 Author(s): C. H. Grohmann, C. Riccomini, and M. A. C. Chamani Base-level maps (or "isobase maps", as originally defined by Filosofov, 1960), express a relationship between valley order and topography. The base-level map can be seen as a "simplified" version of the original topographic surface, from which the "noise" of the low-order stream erosion was removed. This method is able to identify areas with possible tectonic influence even within lithologically uniform domains. Base-level maps have been recently applied in semi-detail scale (e.g., 1:50 000 or larger) morphotectonic analysis. In this paper, we present an evaluation of the method's applicability in regional-scale analysis (e.g., 1:250 000 or smaller). A test area was selected in northern Brazil, at the lower course of the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers. The drainage network extracted from SRTM30_PLUS DEMs with spatial resolution of approximately 900 m was visually compared with available topographic maps and considered to be compatible with a 1:1,000 000 scale. Regarding the interpretation of regional-scale morphostructures, the map constructed with 2nd and 3rd-order valleys was considered to present the best results. Some of the interpreted base-level anomalies correspond to important shear zones and geological contacts present in the 1:5 000 000 Geological Map of South America. Others have no correspondence with mapped Precambrian structures and are considered to represent younger, probably neotectonic, features. A strong E-W orientation of the base-level lines over the inflexion of the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers, suggest a major drainage capture. A N-S topographic swath profile over the Tocantins and Araguaia rivers reveals a topographic pattern which, allied with seismic data showing a roughly N-S direction of extension in the area, lead us to interpret this lineament as an E-W, southward-dipping normal fault. There is also a good visual correspondence between the base-level lineaments and geophysical anomalies. A NW-SE lineament in the southeast of the study area partially corresponds to the northern border of the Mosquito lava field, of Jurassic age, and a NW-SE lineament traced in the northeastern sector of the study area can be interpreted as the Picos-Santa Inês lineament, identifiable in geophysical maps but with little expression in hypsometric or topographic maps.

Beschreibung:    This paper explores the advantages of applying the concept of social-ecological resilience (SER) and the related thinking in transdisciplinary research. The theoretical reflections are exemplified by transdisciplinary research experiences using the concept of SER as a bridging concept in the field of climate-change adaptation instead of developing a new and very context-specific conceptual bridge. The findings are based on ontological reflections concerning the complex and hybrid phenomenon of climate change and the need for transdisciplinary research as well as on reflections on the performed interdisciplinary research and the exploratory transdisciplinary research approach with practitioners from the German administration. The experiences so far have shown that it was more focused on the general ideas of social-ecological resilience thinking instead of using the concept of SER as an analytical tool. We conclude that the use of a common conceptual framework in general and of social-ecological resilience thinking in particular offers tangible advantages in transdisciplinary research dealing with climate change and adaptation to the impacts of climate change. In our case, social-ecological resilience thinking helped—after translation into practical terms—to open the field for further consideration from the very beginning as well as to open the space for common creative work; to define the problem; and to choose the relevant variables to look at. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9821-9 Authors Sonja Deppisch, HafenCity University Hamburg, Winterhuder Weg 31, 22085 Hamburg, Germany Sanin Hasibovic, HafenCity University Hamburg, Winterhuder Weg 31, 22085 Hamburg, Germany Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Beschreibung: Evaluation of satellite rainfall estimates over Ethiopian river basins Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1505-1514, 2011 Author(s): T. G. Romilly and M. Gebremichael High resolution satellite-based rainfall estimates (SREs) have enormous potential for use in hydrological applications, particularly in the developing world as an alternative to conventional rain gauges which are typically sparse. In this study, three SREs have been evaluated against collocated rain gauge measurements in Ethiopia across six river basins that represent different rainfall regimes and topography. The comparison is made using five-year (2003–2007) averages, and results are stratified by river basin, elevation and season. The SREs considered are: the Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Neural Networks (PERSIANN) and the real-time version of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT. Overall, the microwave-based products TMPA 3B42RT and CMORPH outperform the infrared-based product PERSIANN: PERSIANN tends to underestimate rainfall by 43 %, while CMORPH tends to underestimate by 11 % and TMPA 3B42RT tends to overestimate by 5 %. The bias in the satellite rainfall estimates depends on the rainfall regime, and, in some regimes, the elevation. In the northwest region, which is characterized mainly by highland topography, a humid climate and a strong Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) effect, elevation has a strong influence on the accuracy of the SREs: TMPA 3B42RT and CMORPH tend to overestimate at low elevations but give reasonably accurate results at high elevations, whereas PERSIANN gives reasonably accurate values at low elevations but underestimates at high elevations. In the southeast region, which is characterized mainly by lowland topography, a semi-arid climate and southerly winds, elevation does not have a significant influence on the accuracy of the SREs, and all the SREs underestimate rainfall across almost all elevations.

Beschreibung: Increasing parameter certainty and data utility through multi-objective calibration of a spatially distributed temperature and solute model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1547-1561, 2011 Author(s): C. Bandaragoda and B. T. Neilson To support the goal of distributed hydrologic and instream model predictions based on physical processes, we explore multi-dimensional parameterization determined by a broad set of observations. We present a systematic approach to using various data types at spatially distributed locations to decrease parameter bounds sampled within calibration algorithms that ultimately provide information regarding the extent of individual processes represented within the model structure. Through the use of a simulation matrix, parameter sets are first locally optimized by fitting the respective data at one or two locations and then the best results are selected to resolve which parameter sets perform best at all locations, or globally. This approach is illustrated using the Two-Zone Temperature and Solute (TZTS) model for a case study in the Virgin River, Utah, USA, where temperature and solute tracer data were collected at multiple locations and zones within the river that represent the fate and transport of both heat and solute through the study reach. The result was a narrowed parameter space and increased parameter certainty which, based on our results, would not have been as successful if only single objective algorithms were used. We also found that the global optimum is best defined by multiple spatially distributed local optima, which supports the hypothesis that there is a discrete and narrowly bounded parameter range that represents the processes controlling the dominant hydrologic responses. Further, we illustrate that the optimization process itself can be used to determine which observed responses and locations are most useful for estimating the parameters that result in a global fit to guide future data collection efforts.

Beschreibung: The green, blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crop products Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1577-1600, 2011 Author(s): M. M. Mekonnen and A. Y. Hoekstra This study quantifies the green, blue and grey water footprint of global crop production in a spatially-explicit way for the period 1996–2005. The assessment improves upon earlier research by taking a high-resolution approach, estimating the water footprint of 126 crops at a 5 by 5 arc minute grid. We have used a grid-based dynamic water balance model to calculate crop water use over time, with a time step of one day. The model takes into account the daily soil water balance and climatic conditions for each grid cell. In addition, the water pollution associated with the use of nitrogen fertilizer in crop production is estimated for each grid cell. The crop evapotranspiration of additional 20 minor crops is calculated with the CROPWAT model. In addition, we have calculated the water footprint of more than two hundred derived crop products, including various flours, beverages, fibres and biofuels. We have used the water footprint assessment framework as in the guideline of the Water Footprint Network. Considering the water footprints of primary crops, we see that the global average water footprint per ton of crop increases from sugar crops (roughly 200 m 3 ton −1 ), vegetables (300 m 3 ton −1 ), roots and tubers (400 m 3 ton −1 ), fruits (1000 m 3 ton −1 ), cereals (1600 m 3 ton −1 ), oil crops (2400 m 3 ton −1 ) to pulses (4000 m 3 ton −1 ). The water footprint varies, however, across different crops per crop category and per production region as well. Besides, if one considers the water footprint per kcal, the picture changes as well. When considered per ton of product, commodities with relatively large water footprints are: coffee, tea, cocoa, tobacco, spices, nuts, rubber and fibres. The analysis of water footprints of different biofuels shows that bio-ethanol has a lower water footprint (in m 3 GJ −1 ) than biodiesel, which supports earlier analyses. The crop used matters significantly as well: the global average water footprint of bio-ethanol based on sugar beet amounts to 51 m 3 GJ −1 , while this is 121 m 3 GJ −1 for maize. The global water footprint related to crop production in the period 1996–2005 was 7404 billion cubic meters per year (78 % green, 12 % blue, 10 % grey). A large total water footprint was calculated for wheat (1087 Gm 3 yr −1 ), rice (992 Gm 3 yr −1 ) and maize (770 Gm 3 yr −1 ). Wheat and rice have the largest blue water footprints, together accounting for 45 % of the global blue water footprint. At country level, the total water footprint was largest for India (1047 Gm 3 yr −1 ), China (967 Gm 3 yr −1 ) and the USA (826 Gm 3 yr −1 ). A relatively large total blue water footprint as a result of crop production is observed in the Indus river basin (117 Gm 3 yr −1 ) and the Ganges river basin (108 Gm 3 yr −1 ). The two basins together account for 25 % of the blue water footprint related to global crop production. Globally, rain-fed agriculture has a water footprint of 5173 Gm 3 yr −1 (91 % green, 9 % grey); irrigated agriculture has a water footprint of 2230 Gm 3 yr −1 (48 % green, 40 % blue, 12 % grey).

Beschreibung: Mechanisms of vegetation uprooting by flow in alluvial non-cohesive sediment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1615-1627, 2011 Author(s): K. Edmaier, P. Burlando, and P. Perona The establishment of riparian pioneer vegetation is of crucial importance within river restoration projects. After germination or vegetative reproduction on river bars juvenile plants are often exposed to mortality by uprooting caused by floods. At later stages of root development vegetation uprooting by flow is seen to occur as a consequence of a marked erosion gradually exposing the root system and accordingly reducing the mechanical anchoring. How time scales of flow-induced uprooting do depend on vegetation stages growing in alluvial non-cohesive sediment is currently an open question that we conceptually address in this work. After reviewing vegetation root issues in relation to morphodynamic processes, we then propose two modelling mechanisms (Type I and Type II), respectively concerning the uprooting time scales of early germinated and of mature vegetation. Type I is a purely flow-induced drag mechanism, which causes alone a nearly instantaneous uprooting when exceeding root resistance. Type II arises as a combination of substantial sediment erosion exposing the root system and resulting in a decreased anchoring resistance, eventually degenerating into a Type I mechanism. We support our conceptual models with some preliminary experimental data and discuss the importance of better understanding such mechanisms in order to formulate sounding mathematical models that are suitable to plan and to manage river restoration projects.

Beschreibung:    The formulation of watershed management strategies to protect water resources threatened by soil erosion and sedimentation requires a thorough understanding of sediment sources and factors that drive soil movement in the watershed. This paper describes a study of medium-term water-driven soil erosion rates in a mountainous watershed of the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. A total of 60 sampling sites were selected along a hillslope. At each sampling site, the inventory 137 Cs activity was determined and then calculated with the diffusion and migration model to derive soil erosion rates. The rates are one to two orders of magnitude lower than estimates using the Universal Soil Loss Equation, a soil erosion model often used in Taiwan. Results of multiple regression analysis indicate that the spatial variability of soil erosion rates is associated with the relative position of a sampling site to the nearest ridge and soil bulk densities ( r 2  = 0.33, p  〈 0.01). Finally, the patterns of soil redistribution rates on the hillslope follow the 137 Cs hillslope model as soil erosion increases in the downslope direction. No deposition site is found at footslope because soil deposition is swept away by regular flooding along the stream channel. This study is an important first step in using 137 Cs as a tracer of soil redistribution in mountainous watersheds of Taiwan. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9749-0 Authors Yu-Jia Chiu, Center for Weather Climate and Disaster Research, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt RD., Taipei, 10617 Taiwan, ROC Kang-Tsung Chang, Center for Weather Climate and Disaster Research, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt RD., Taipei, 10617 Taiwan, ROC Yi-Chin Chen, Center for Weather Climate and Disaster Research, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt RD., Taipei, 10617 Taiwan, ROC Jiunn-Hsing Chao, Center for Weather Climate and Disaster Research, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt RD., Taipei, 10617 Taiwan, ROC Hong-Yuan Lee, Center for Weather Climate and Disaster Research, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt RD., Taipei, 10617 Taiwan, ROC Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X