ALBERT

Description: Regional and local patterns in depth to water table, hydrochemistry and peat properties of bogs and their laggs in coastal British Columbia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3421-3435, 2013 Author(s): S. A. Howie and H. J. van Meerveld In restoration planning for damaged raised bogs, the lagg at the bog margin is often not given considerable weight and is sometimes disregarded entirely. However, the lagg is critical for the proper functioning of the bog, as it supports the water mound in the bog. In order to include the lagg in a restoration plan for a raised bog, it is necessary to understand the hydrological characteristics and functions of this rarely studied transition zone. We studied 13 coastal British Columbia (BC) bogs and identified two different gradients in depth to water table, hydrochemistry and peat properties: (1) a local bog expanse–bog margin gradient, and (2) a regional gradient related to climate and proximity to the ocean. Depth to water table generally increased across the transition from bog expanse to bog margin. In the bog expanse, pH was above 4.2 in the Pacific Oceanic wetland region (cooler and wetter climate) and below 4.3 in the Pacific Temperate wetland region (warmer and drier climate). Both pH and pH-corrected electrical conductivity increased significantly across the transition from bog expanse to bog margin, though not in all cases. Na + and Mg 2+ concentrations were generally highest in exposed, oceanic bogs and lower in inland bogs. Ash content in peat samples increased across the bog expanse–bog margin transition, and appears to be a useful abiotic indicator of the location of the bog margin. The observed variation in the hydrological and hydrochemical gradients across the bog expanse–bog margin transition highlights both local and regional diversity of bogs and their associated laggs.

Description: Bayesian networks modelling in support to cross-cutting analysis of water supply and sanitation in developing countries Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3397-3419, 2013 Author(s): C. Dondeynaz, J. López Puga, and C. Carmona Moreno Despite the efforts made towards the Millennium Development Goals targets during the last decade, improved access to water supply or basic sanitation still remains unavailable for millions of people across the world. This paper proposes a set of models that use 25 key variables and country profiles from the WatSan4Dev data set involving water supply and sanitation (Dondeynaz et al., 2012). This paper suggests the use of Bayesian network modelling methods because they are more easily adapted to deal with non-normal distributions, and integrate a qualitative approach for data analysis. They also offer the advantage of integrating preliminary knowledge into the probabilistic models. The statistical performance of the proposed models ranges between 20 and 5% error rates, which are very satisfactory taking into account the strong heterogeneity of variables. Probabilistic scenarios run from the models allow an assessment of the relationships between human development, external support, governance aspects, economic activities and water supply and sanitation (WSS) access. According to models proposed in this paper, gaining a strong poverty reduction will require the WSS access to reach 75–76% through: (1) the management of ongoing urbanisation processes to avoid slums development; and (2) the improvement of health care, for instance for children. Improving governance, such as institutional efficiency, capacities to make and apply rules, or control of corruption is positively associated with WSS sustainable development. The first condition for an increment of the HDP (human development and poverty) remains of course an improvement of the economic conditions with higher household incomes. Moreover, a significant country commitment to the environment, associated with civil society freedom of expression constitutes a favourable setting for sustainable WSS services delivery. Intensive agriculture using irrigation practises also appears as a mean for sustainable WSS thanks to multi-uses and complementarities. With a WSS sector organised at national level, irrigation practices can support the structuring and efficiency of the agriculture sector. It may then induce rural development in areas where WSS access often is set back compared to urban areas 1 . External financial support, called Official Development Assistance (ODA CI), plays a role in WSS improvement but comes last in the sensitivity analyses of models. An overall 47% of the Official Development Assistance goes first to poor countries, and is associated to governance aspects: (1) political stability and (2) country commitment to the environment and civil society degree of freedom. These governance aspects constitute a good framework for aid implementation in recipient countries. Modelling is run with the five groups of countries as defined in Dondeynaz et al. (2012). Models for profile 4 (essential external support) and profile 5 (primary material consumption) are specifically detailed and analysed in this paper. For countries in profile 4, fighting against water scarcity and progressing desertification should be the priority. However, for countries in profile 5, efforts should first concentrate on consolidation of political stability while supporting diversification of the economic activities. Nevertheless, for both profiles, reduction of poverty should remain the first priority as previously indicated. 1 JMP statistics, 2004 http://www.wssinfo.org/data-estimates/table/ , last access: 22 July 2013.

Description: Technical Note: A comparison of model and empirical measures of catchment-scale effective energy and mass transfer Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3389-3395, 2013 Author(s): C. Rasmussen and E. L. Gallo Recent work suggests that a coupled effective energy and mass transfer (EEMT) term, which includes the energy associated with effective precipitation and primary production, may serve as a robust prediction parameter of critical zone structure and function. However, the models used to estimate EEMT have been solely based on long-term climatological data with little validation using direct empirical measures of energy, water, and carbon balances. Here we compare catchment-scale EEMT estimates generated using two distinct approaches: (1) EEMT modeled using the established methodology based on estimates of monthly effective precipitation and net primary production derived from climatological data, and (2) empirical catchment-scale EEMT estimated using data from 86 catchments of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) and MOD17A3 annual net primary production (NPP) product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Results indicated positive and significant linear correspondence ( R 2 = 0.75; P 〈 0.001) between model and empirical measures with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.86 MJ m −2 yr −1 . Modeled EEMT values were consistently greater than empirical measures of EEMT. Empirical catchment estimates of the energy associated with effective precipitation ( E PPT ) were calculated using a mass balance approach that accounts for water losses to quick surface runoff not accounted for in the climatologically modeled E PPT . Similarly, local controls on primary production such as solar radiation and nutrient limitation were not explicitly included in the climatologically based estimates of energy associated with primary production ( E BIO ), whereas these were captured in the remotely sensed MODIS NPP data. These differences likely explain the greater estimate of modeled EEMT relative to the empirical measures. There was significant positive correlation between catchment aridity and the fraction of EEMT partitioned into E BIO ( F BIO ), with an increase in F BIO as a fraction of the total as aridity increases and percentage of catchment woody plant cover decreases. In summary, the data indicated strong correspondence between model and empirical measures of EEMT with limited bias that agree well with other empirical measures of catchment energy and water partitioning and plant cover.

Description: Coastally trapped waves, which are generated by alongshore wind and propagate along a coastline, are common around Australia's southern coast. Some details of the propagation of coastally trapped waves are still uncertain, partly because of the relatively coarse resolution of tide gauge observations as well as the complex ocean bottom surface over which the waves propagate. There has been some debate on the mechanism by which these waves propagate from the southern to eastern coasts of Australia.

Description: Mike Carr wrote recently of the wonderful planetary geology accomplished by NASA over the past 50 years of space exploration, with images and descriptions from the early Venus, Mars, and lunar missions as well as more recent missions, which evoked good memories (M. H. Carr, Geologic exploration of the planets: The first 50 years, Eos , 94 (3), 29–30, doi:10.1029/2013EO030001, 2013). Unfortunately, memories are not science data, and those 50 years have not been as kind to the scientific information collected by these pioneering missions.

Description: Numerical simulations have shown that the moisture in the tropical troposphere has a tendency to spontaneously aggregate, forming separate wet and dry regions. To learn more about how this self-organization occurs, Craig and Mack introduced a simple equation for the tropical troposphere moisture budget and conducted numerical simulations that included convective moistening and horizontal mixing. Based on their simulations, the authors propose that a feedback process in the troposphere causes moisture to aggregate, beginning on small scales and then coarsening to larger scales. Wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier as the self-organization continues.

Description: Scientists generally believe that the Hawaiian Islands formed primarily through endogenous growth, or intrusion, in which hot magma intrudes into a rock and then solidifies before it reaches the surface. However, a new study suggests that the islands may actually have formed primarily through extrusion, which occurs when a volcano erupts and magma reaches the surface and flows away from the eruption site before cooling and solidifying.

Description: The general circulation model (GCM) experiments conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) [ Taylor et al ., 2012], which is being conducted in preparation for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report, provide fundamental data sets for assessing the effects of global climate change. However, efforts to assess regional or local effects of the projected changes in climate are often impeded by the coarse spatial resolution of the GCM outputs, as well as potential local or regional biases in GCM outputs [ Fowler et al ., 2007].

Description: Contribution of directly connected and isolated impervious areas to urban drainage network hydrographs Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3473-3483, 2013 Author(s): Y. Seo, N.-J. Choi, and A. R. Schmidt This paper addresses the mass balance error observed in runoff hydrographs in urban watersheds by introducing assumptions regarding the contribution of infiltrated rainfall from pervious areas and isolated impervious area (IIA) to the runoff hydrograph. Rainfall infiltrating into pervious areas has been assumed not to contribute to the runoff hydrograph until Hortonian excess rainfall occurs. However, mass balance analysis in an urban watershed indicates that rainfall infiltrated to pervious areas can contribute directly to the runoff hydrograph, thereby offering an explanation for the long hydrograph tail commonly observed in runoff from urban storm sewers. In this study, a hydrologic analysis based on the width function is introduced, with two types of width functions obtained from both pervious and impervious areas, respectively. The width function can be regarded as the direct interpretation of the network response. These two width functions are derived to obtain distinct response functions for directly connected impervious areas (DCIA), IIA, and pervious areas. The results show significant improvement in the estimation of runoff hydrographs and suggest the need to consider the flow contribution from pervious areas to the runoff hydrograph. It also implies that additional contribution from flow paths through joints and cracks in sewer pipes needs to be taken into account to improve the estimation of runoff hydrographs in urban catchments.

Description: Black carbon, also known as soot, emitted from combustion of fuels and biomass burning absorbs solar radiation in the atmosphere and is one of the major causes of global warming, after carbon dioxide emissions. When black carbon is deposited on snow and ice, the soot-covered snow or ice absorbs more sunlight, leading to surface warming. Due to the large amount of snow and ice in the Arctic—which has warmed twice as fast as the global average over the past century—the region is likely to be especially sensitive to black carbon.

Description: In 1999, researchers published data from ice cores collected at Law Dome, a research site in East Antarctica. These data are distinguished by their high time resolution and by their overlap with modern measurements, providing one of the most important records of how the atmosphere's chemical composition changed over the past 1000 years. Air trapped in bubbles in the ice core let researchers measure the concentration of carbon dioxide and other gases and analyze the ratio of carbon-13 to carbon-12 isotopes in the atmospheric carbon dioxide. Burning fossil fuel releases carbon dioxide that is depleted in carbon-13 isotopes, and the Law Dome record provided evidence that modern increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide are due to anthropogenic activity. In a new study, Rubino et al ., a team that includes some of the authors from the original analysis, use novel tools and techniques to update their ice core record.

Description: In January 2013, approximately 2 months after Hurricane Sandy made landfall in the Mid-Atlantic Bight, scientists from the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics (UTIG), part of the Jackson School of Geosciences (JSG), partnered with local colleagues at Adelphi and Stony Brook universities and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct marine surveys both offshore and within inshore bays of Long Island, N. Y. (Figure 1a). The primary goal was to assess the storm's impact on the seabed.

Description: Volcanic craters are often formed by multiple subsurface explosions caused by the interaction of magma and groundwater [ Lorenz , 1973; Valentine and White , 2012]. To understand the processes and products of such explosions, scientists spent 2 years conducting experiments that produced craters on the meter scale at the Geohazards Field Station in Ashford, N. Y.

Description: A sudden shift in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is thought to be the most important mechanism behind several past abrupt changes in the climate. AMOC transports heat, salt, and nutrients throughout the Atlantic Ocean. Paleoclimate evidence has shown that changes in its strength affect the climate worldwide. Whether AMOC could suddenly shift again depends on whether the circulation can exist in more than one stable state.

Description: One of the most important services performed for AGU is the conscientious reviewing of submitted papers. Because of the nature of the reviewing process, this service is also one of the least recognized. Every year editors are asked to select the outstanding reviewers from the previous year. The reviewers listed below have been cited by editors of AGU journals and Eos for excellence in refereeing. These individuals are to be commended for consistently providing constructive and thoughtful reviews .

Description: In the 1930s, researchers first noticed that the Chesapeake Bay had a dead zone, an expanse of water with drastically reduced concentrations of oxygen. In the 1980s, hypoxia—low-oxygen conditions—gave way in some places to anoxia—a near-total depletion of dissolved oxygen. A lack of oxygen makes the water inhospitable for many marine organisms, and the Chesapeake Bay is the focus of major ecosystem rehabilitation efforts.

Description: An original interpretation of the wet edge of the surface temperature–albedo space to estimate crop evapotranspiration (SEB-1S), and its validation over an irrigated area in northwestern Mexico Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3623-3637, 2013 Author(s): O. Merlin The space defined by the pair surface temperature ( T ) and surface albedo (α), and the space defined by the pair T and fractional green vegetation cover ( f vg ) have been extensively used to estimate evaporative fraction (EF) from solar/thermal remote sensing data. In both space-based approaches, evapotranspiration (ET) is estimated as remotely sensed EF times the available energy. For a given data point in the T -α space or in the T - f vg space, EF is derived as the ratio of the distance separating the point from the line identified as the dry edge to the distance separating the dry edge and the line identified as the wet edge. The dry and wet edges are classically defined as the upper and lower limit of the spaces, respectively. When investigating side by side the T -α and the T - f vg spaces, one observes that the range covered by T values on the (classically determined) wet edge is different for both spaces. In addition, when extending the wet and dry lines of the T -α space, both lines cross at α ≈ 0.4 although the wet and dry edges of the T - f vg space never cross for 0 ≤ f vg 〈 1. In this paper, a new ET (EF) model (SEB-1S) is derived by revisiting the classical physical interpretation of the T -α space to make its wet edge consistent with that of the T - f vg space. SEB-1S is tested over a 16 km by 10 km irrigated area in northwestern Mexico during the 2007–2008 agricultural season. The classical T -α space-based model is implemented as benchmark to evaluate the performance of SEB-1S. Input data are composed of ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer) thermal infrared, Formosat-2 shortwave, and station-based meteorological data. The fluxes simulated by SEB-1S and the classical T -α space-based model are compared on seven ASTER overpass dates with the in situ measurements collected at six locations within the study domain. The ET simulated by SEB-1S is significantly more accurate and robust than that predicted by the classical T -α space-based model. The correlation coefficient and slope of the linear regression between simulated and observed ET is improved from 0.82 to 0.93, and from 0.63 to 0.90, respectively. Moreover, constraining the wet edge using air temperature data improves the slope of the linear regression between simulated and observed ET.

Description: On an improved sub-regional water resources management representation for integration into earth system models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3605-3622, 2013 Author(s): N. Voisin, H. Li, D. Ward, M. Huang, M. Wigmosta, and L. R. Leung Human influence on the hydrologic cycle includes regulation and storage, consumptive use and overall redistribution of water resources in space and time. Representing these processes is essential for applications of earth system models in hydrologic and climate predictions, as well as impact studies at regional to global scales. Emerging large-scale research reservoir models use generic operating rules that are flexible for coupling with earth system models. Those generic operating rules have been successful in reproducing the overall regulated flow at large basin scales. This study investigates the uncertainties of the reservoir models from different implementations of the generic operating rules using the complex multi-objective Columbia River Regulation System in northwestern United States as an example to understand their effects on not only regulated flow but also reservoir storage and fraction of the demand that is met. Numerical experiments are designed to test new generic operating rules that combine storage and releases targets for multi-purpose reservoirs and to compare the use of reservoir usage priorities and predictors (withdrawals vs. consumptive demands, as well as natural vs. regulated mean flow) for configuring operating rules. Overall the best performing implementation is with combined priorities rules (flood control storage targets and irrigation release targets) set up with mean annual natural flow and mean monthly withdrawals. The options of not accounting for groundwater withdrawals, or on the contrary, of assuming that all remaining demand is met through groundwater extractions, are discussed.

Description: On selection of the optimal data time interval for real-time hydrological forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3639-3659, 2013 Author(s): J. Liu and D. Han With the advancement in modern telemetry and communication technologies, hydrological data can be collected with an increasingly higher sampling rate. An important issue deserving attention from the hydrological community is which suitable time interval of the model input data should be chosen in hydrological forecasting. Such a problem has long been recognised in the control engineering community but is a largely ignored topic in operational applications of hydrological forecasting. In this study, the intrinsic properties of rainfall–runoff data with different time intervals are first investigated from the perspectives of the sampling theorem and the information loss using the discrete wavelet transform tool. It is found that rainfall signals with very high sampling rates may not always improve the accuracy of rainfall–runoff modelling due to the catchment low-pass-filtering effect. To further investigate the impact of a data time interval in real-time forecasting, a real-time forecasting system is constructed by incorporating the probability distributed model (PDM) with a real-time updating scheme, the autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) model. Case studies are then carried out on four UK catchments with different concentration times for real-time flow forecasting using data with different time intervals of 15, 30, 45, 60, 90 and 120 min. A positive relation is found between the forecast lead time and the optimal choice of the data time interval, which is also highly dependent on the catchment concentration time. Finally, based on the conclusions from the case studies, a hypothetical pattern is proposed in three-dimensional coordinates to describe the general impact of the data time interval and to provide implications of the selection of the optimal time interval in real-time hydrological forecasting. Although nowadays most operational hydrological systems still have low data sampling rates (daily or hourly), the future is that higher sampling rates will become more widespread, and there is an urgent need for hydrologists both in academia and in the field to realise the significance of the data time interval issue. It is important that more case studies in different catchments with various hydrological forecasting systems are explored in the future to further verify and improve the proposed hypothetical pattern.

Description: Patterns of past, present, and future sea level vary spatially, depending on how the solid Earth responds to the changing distribution of ice and ocean mass, known as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Accurate interpretation of observational constraints on GIA requires dialogue between field scientists and researchers who reconstruct ice sheet geometries, infer Earth structure and rheology, and model the solid Earth response to loading.

Description: Fieldwork plays an important role in initiating students into the geoscience community of practice, providing learning opportunities not possible through classroom lectures, lab work, or computer exercises alone [ Mogk and Goodwin , 2012]. It's no wonder, then, that fieldwork is a mainstay of any well-balanced university geoscience program, with activities ranging from local field trips to in-residence field camps at remote sites.

Description: AGU members are invited to comment on proposed changes to AGU's bylaws. The updates reflect changes required by Washington, D. C., law and changes enacted by the AGU Board of Directors and Council during the transition in 2010–2012 to a new governance structure. Members can view and comment on the proposed changes at http://sites.agu.org/leadership/agu-bylaws-comment-period/ . The comment period is open until 18 November.

Description: It is a great pleasure for me to introduce Giuliano Di Baldassarre as the recipient of the AGU Hydrologic Sciences Early Career Award.

Description: Agricultural ecologist David Lobell is among the 2103 class of MacArthur Fellows, the MacArthur Foundation announced on 25 September. Lobell, an associate professor in Stanford University's Department of Environmental Earth System Science, is one of 24 people to win the “genius award” this year. The citation for Lobell notes that he “unearths and connects richly informative sources of data to investigate the impact of climate change on crop production and food security around the globe. His multidisciplinary background in remote sensing, statistics, ecosystem modeling, land use, and agronomy informs his approach and enables him to draw significant insights from enormous and diverse data sets on weather, agricultural practices, and natural resources such as soil and water.” Each MacArthur Fellow receives a no-strings-attached stipend of $625,000 over 5 years.

Description: Estimates of the recent decline in Arctic Ocean summer sea ice extent can vary due to differences in sea ice data sources, in the number of years used to compute the trend, and in the start and end years used in the trend computation. Compounding such differences, estimates of the relative decline in sea ice cover (given in percent change per decade) can further vary due to the choice of reference value (the initial point of the trend line, a climatological baseline, etc.). Further adding to the confusion, very often when relative trends are reported in research papers, the reference values used are not specified or made clear. This can lead to confusion when trend studies are cited in the press and public reports.

Description: The stability of the Amazon rainforest and the ecosystem's resilience to widespread deforestation may be much lower than previously thought. The replacement of stands of trees with grassland changes evapotranspiration rates and atmospheric moisture convergence, which, in turn, reduce regional rainfall. This feedback effect could drive further deforestation. Previous research indicated that a dramatic shift from forest to grassland could overtake the Amazon when the total deforested area hits 40% to 50% of the forest's current size. New research by Pires and Costa , however, found that the deforestation needed to trigger this equilibrium shift is much lower, closer to just 10%.

Description: In the western South Atlantic, off the coast of South America, a band of cold, fresh, nutrient-rich Sub-Antarctic Shelf Water (SASW) meets warm, salty, nutrient-poor Subtropical Shelf Water (STSW) to form the Subtropical Shelf Front (STSF). This front is the shallow-water expression of the major Brazil-Malvinas Confluence Zone and has moved northward and southward during the Holocene (the past ~12,000 years). Bender et al . reconstruct the latitudinal shifts of the STSF over the past 11,000 calendar-equivalent years using records of oxygen and carbon stable isotope compositions of benthic foraminifera and total organic carbon and calcium carbonate content from a sediment record collected off Uruguay. These measurements serve as proxies for ocean water temperature and nutrient content, which can be used to distinguish the SASW and STSW.

Description: The stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is uncertain as climate changes. An ice sheet such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that is grounded well below sea level on a bed that slopes toward the interior of the sheet is believed to be unstable: When the grounding zone, where the grounded sheet transitions into floating ice, retreats inland, it can lead to massive amounts of ice becoming ungrounded and floating into the ocean unless something such as a wedge of sediment stabilizes the ice sheet. It has been proposed that such a sediment wedge stabilizes the grounding zone of the Whillans Ice Stream, one of the large ice streams flowing from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, most understanding of ice sheet stability at grounding zones comes from models and remote observation rather than field-based observations.

Description: Particulate matter in the air, which can come from both natural and anthropogenic sources, can be detrimental to human health. Air quality standards in Europe and elsewhere regulate emission of air pollutants from human sources, but in some locations, particulate matter levels are still high. Among the natural factors that can influence particulate matter concentrations are large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Understanding the relationship between NAO variability and particulate matter can help scientists understand particulate matter trends and potentially predict areas likely to be affected by pollution episodes. This is especially important because climate models suggest that the winter mean state of the NAO is likely to shift in coming years.

Description: Benchmark products for land evapotranspiration: LandFlux-EVAL multi-data set synthesis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3707-3720, 2013 Author(s): B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. G. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne Land evapotranspiration (ET) estimates are available from several global data sets. Here, monthly global land ET synthesis products, merged from these individual data sets over the time periods 1989–1995 (7 yr) and 1989–2005 (17 yr), are presented. The merged synthesis products over the shorter period are based on a total of 40 distinct data sets while those over the longer period are based on a total of 14 data sets. In the individual data sets, ET is derived from satellite and/or in situ observations (diagnostic data sets) or calculated via land-surface models (LSMs) driven with observations-based forcing or output from atmospheric reanalyses. Statistics for four merged synthesis products are provided, one including all data sets and three including only data sets from one category each (diagnostic, LSMs, and reanalyses). The multi-annual variations of ET in the merged synthesis products display realistic responses. They are also consistent with previous findings of a global increase in ET between 1989 and 1997 (0.13 mm yr −2 in our merged product) followed by a significant decrease in this trend (−0.18 mm yr −2 ), although these trends are relatively small compared to the uncertainty of absolute ET values. The global mean ET from the merged synthesis products (based on all data sets) is 493 mm yr −1 (1.35 mm d −1 ) for both the 1989–1995 and 1989–2005 products, which is relatively low compared to previously published estimates. We estimate global runoff (precipitation minus ET) to 263 mm yr −1 (34 406 km 3 yr −1 ) for a total land area of 130 922 000 km 2 . Precipitation, being an important driving factor and input to most simulated ET data sets, presents uncertainties between single data sets as large as those in the ET estimates. In order to reduce uncertainties in current ET products, improving the accuracy of the input variables, especially precipitation, as well as the parameterizations of ET, are crucial.

Description: Spatial patterns in timing of the diurnal temperature cycle Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3695-3706, 2013 Author(s): T. R. H. Holmes, W. T. Crow, and C. Hain This paper investigates the structural difference in timing of the diurnal temperature cycle (DTC) over land resulting from choice of measuring device or model framework. It is shown that the timing can be reliably estimated from temporally sparse observations acquired from a constellation of low Earth-orbiting satellites given record lengths of at least three months. Based on a year of data, the spatial patterns of mean DTC timing are compared between temperature estimates from microwave Ka-band, geostationary thermal infrared (TIR), and numerical weather prediction model output from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). It is found that the spatial patterns can be explained by vegetation effects, sensing depth differences and more speculatively the orientation of orographic relief features. In absolute terms, the GMAO model puts the peak of the DTC on average at 12:50 local solar time, 23 min before TIR with a peak temperature at 13:13 (both averaged over Africa and Europe). Since TIR is the shallowest observation of the land surface, this small difference represents a structural error that possibly affects the model's ability to assimilate observations that are closely tied to the DTC. The equivalent average timing for Ka-band is 13:44, which is influenced by the effect of increased sensing depth in desert areas. For non-desert areas, the Ka-band observations lag the TIR observations by only 15 min, which is in agreement with their respective theoretical sensing depth. The results of this comparison provide insights into the structural differences between temperature measurements and models, and can be used as a first step to account for these differences in a coherent way.

Description: Integrated hydrological modeling of the North China Plain and implications for sustainable water management Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3759-3778, 2013 Author(s): H. Qin, G. Cao, M. Kristensen, J. C. Refsgaard, M. O. Rasmussen, X. He, J. Liu, Y. Shu, and C. Zheng Groundwater overdraft has caused fast water level decline in the North China Plain (NCP) since the 1980s. Although many hydrological models have been developed for the NCP in the past few decades, most of them deal only with the groundwater component or only at local scales. In the present study, a coupled surface water–groundwater model using the MIKE SHE code has been developed for the entire alluvial plain of the NCP. All the major processes in the land phase of the hydrological cycle are considered in the integrated modeling approach. The most important parameters of the model are first identified by a sensitivity analysis process and then calibrated for the period 2000–2005. The calibrated model is validated for the period 2006–2008 against daily observations of groundwater heads. The simulation results compare well with the observations where acceptable values of root mean square error (RMSE) (most values lie below 4 m) and correlation coefficient ( R ) (0.36–0.97) are obtained. The simulated evapotranspiration (ET) is then compared with the remote sensing (RS)-based ET data to further validate the model simulation. The comparison result with a R 2 value of 0.93 between the monthly averaged values of simulated actual evapotranspiration (AET) and RS AET for the entire NCP shows a good performance of the model. The water balance results indicate that more than 70% of water leaving the flow system is attributed to the ET component, of which about 0.25% is taken from the saturated zone (SZ); about 29% comes from pumping, including irrigation pumping and non-irrigation pumping (net pumping). Sustainable water management analysis of the NCP is conducted using the simulation results obtained from the integrated model. An effective approach to improve water use efficiency in the NCP is by reducing the actual ET, e.g. by introducing water-saving technologies and changes in cropping.

Description: Simulation of a persistent medium-term precipitation event over the western Iberian Peninsula Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3741-3758, 2013 Author(s): S. C. Pereira, A. C. Carvalho, J. Ferreira, J. P. Nunes, J. J. Keizer, and A. Rocha This study evaluated the performance of the WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting with Advanced Research) weather prediction model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed during the rainy season and, more specifically, the month of December 2009. In this period, the region of interest was under the influence of a sequential passage of low-pressure systems associated with frontal surfaces. These synoptic weather patterns were responsible for long periods of rainfall, resulting in a high monthly precipitation. The WRF model results during the study period were furthermore evaluated with the specific objective to complement gaps in the precipitation recordings of a reference meteorological station (located in Pousadas), the data of which are fundamental for hydrological studies in nearby experimental catchments. Three distinct WRF model runs were forced with initial fields and boundary conditions obtained from a global domain model: (1) a reference experiment with no nudging (RunRef); (2) observational nudging for a specific location, i.e. the above-mentioned Pousadas reference station (RunObsN); and (3) nudging to the analysed field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated, using several statistical parameters, against a dataset of 27 rainfall stations that were grouped by elevation. The three model runs had similar performances, even though RunGridN resulted in a slight improvement. Regarding the other two experiments, this improvement justifies its use for complementing the surface measurements at the Pousadas reference station. Overall model accuracy, expressed in root mean square error (RMSE), of the three runs was comparable for the stations of the different elevations classes. Even so, it was slightly better for stations in the lowlands than the highlands. Furthermore, model predictions tended to be less accurate for stations located in rough terrain and deep valleys.

Description: Investigating the spatio-temporal variability in groundwater and surface water interactions: a multi-technique approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3437-3453, 2013 Author(s): N. P. Unland, I. Cartwright, M. S. Andersen, G. C. Rau, J. Reed, B. S. Gilfedder, A. P. Atkinson, and H. Hofmann The interaction between groundwater and surface water along the Tambo and Nicholson rivers, southeast Australia, was investigated using 222 Rn, Cl, differential flow gauging, head gradients, electrical conductivity (EC) and temperature profiles. Head gradients, temperature profiles, Cl concentrations and 222 Rn activities all indicate higher groundwater fluxes to the Tambo River in areas of increased topographic variation where the potential to form large groundwater–surface water gradients is greater. Groundwater discharge to the Tambo River calculated by Cl mass balance was significantly lower (1.48 × 10 4 to 1.41 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) than discharge estimated by 222 Rn mass balance (5.35 × 10 5 to 9.56 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) and differential flow gauging (5.41 × 10 5 to 6.30 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) due to bank return waters. While groundwater sampling from the bank of the Tambo River was intended to account for changes in groundwater chemistry associated with bank infiltration, variations in bank infiltration between sample sites remain unaccounted for, limiting the use of Cl as an effective tracer. Groundwater discharge to both the Tambo and Nicholson rivers was the highest under high-flow conditions in the days to weeks following significant rainfall, indicating that the rivers are well connected to a groundwater system that is responsive to rainfall. Groundwater constituted the lowest proportion of river discharge during times of increased rainfall that followed dry periods, while groundwater constituted the highest proportion of river discharge under baseflow conditions (21.4% of the Tambo in April 2010 and 18.9% of the Nicholson in September 2010).

Description: Resolving structural errors in a spatially distributed hydrologic model using ensemble Kalman filter state updates Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3455-3472, 2013 Author(s): J. H. Spaaks and W. Bouten In hydrological modeling, model structures are developed in an iterative cycle as more and different types of measurements become available and our understanding of the hillslope or watershed improves. However, with increasing complexity of the model, it becomes more and more difficult to detect which parts of the model are deficient, or which processes should also be incorporated into the model during the next development step. In this study, we first compare two methods (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (SCEM-UA) and the Simultaneous parameter Optimization and Data Assimilation algorithm (SODA)) to calibrate a purposely deficient 3-D hillslope-scale model to error-free, artificially generated measurements. We use a multi-objective approach based on distributed pressure head at the soil–bedrock interface and hillslope-scale discharge and water balance. For these idealized circumstances, SODA's usefulness as a diagnostic methodology is demonstrated by its ability to identify the timing and location of processes that are missing in the model. We show that SODA's state updates provide information that could readily be incorporated into an improved model structure, and that this type of information cannot be gained from parameter estimation methods such as SCEM-UA. We then expand on the SODA result by performing yet another calibration, in which we investigate whether SODA's state updating patterns are still capable of providing insight into model structure deficiencies when there are fewer measurements, which are moreover subject to measurement noise. We conclude that SODA can help guide the discussion between experimentalists and modelers by providing accurate and detailed information on how to improve spatially distributed hydrologic models.

Description: Due to its massive air traffic impact, the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull was felt by millions of people and cost airlines more than U.S. $1.7 billion. The event has, thus, become widely cited in renewed efforts to improve real-time tracking of volcanic plumes, as witnessed by special sections published last year in Journal of Geophysical Research , ( 117 , issues D20 and B9).

Description: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) have agreed to continue their long-term cooperation on satellite-based weather monitoring. NOAA acting administrator Kathryn Sullivan and EUMETSAT director general Alain Ratier signed the agreement at a ceremony at the European Union Delegation in Washington, D. C., on 27 August.

Description: From May to July 2012, the Great Plains region of the western United States faced a powerful and unpredicted drought. Following 7 months of normal rainfall, the drought was one of the largest deviations from seasonal precipitation rates seen in the region since observations began in 1895. When such extreme events take place today against the backdrop of ongoing global climate change, they raise questions about the relationship between climate change and natural disasters.

Description: A binational research team met on the campus of Yunnan University in Kunming, China, to discuss recent progress and future plans to leverage binational support to address major questions on life in terrestrial geothermal systems. The symposium included about 90 faculty, postdocs, and students from China and about 30 faculty, postdocs, students, and high school teachers from the United States. The introductory session reviewed the progress of the Tengchong PIRE project funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) Partnerships for International Research and Education (PIRE) program (OISE-0836450). It also introduced a new collaborative project funded as a Key Project of International Cooperation by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST, 2013DFA31980), which is the first project funded through a memorandum of understanding between NSF and MOST to promote China-U.S. collaboration.

Description: Recent observations show that the Sun's magnetic field is flipping, marking one of the weakest sunspot cycle maxima in recent history. Many consequences have been observed and are under study, from a significant diminishing of the upper atmosphere's density [ Solomon et al ., 2010] to record low levels of geomagnetic activity [ Richardson , 2013] to the large increase of local galactic cosmic ray fluxes starting in the preceding solar minimum [ Mewaldt et al ., 2010].

Description: I'm deeply honored to receive the Earth and Planetary Surface Processes G. K. Gilbert Award, in no small part because Gilbert's application of simple physical principles to Earth surface processes has always been an inspiration to me. My desire to study the transportation of debris by running water started a long time ago on our family farm, where re-engineering the local stream with a backhoe was a rewarding afternoon activity.

Description: Michael Lamb received the 2012 Luna B. Leopold Young Scientist Award at the 2012 AGU Fall Meeting, held 3–7 December in San Francisco, Calif. The award recognizes “a young scientist for making a significant and outstanding contribution that advances the field of Earth and planetary surface processes.”

Description: It is my pleasure to be a part of the exciting community of Earth and planetary surface processes. In addition to the opportunities to participate in engaging and fundamental science, I enjoy our field because of collaborations with bright and fun people. In my short career I have had the pleasure to work with a number of colleagues, and I share this award with you.

Description: Climate models generally show that when a massive volcano erupts, scattering reflective aerosols across the globe, the planet's temperature declines for up to a few years. However, when researchers look at reconstructed temperature records built on annual tree ring measurements, this volcanic cooling often appeared much weaker than expected or was nonexistent. In a new study reanalyzing regional tree ring growth records, Mann et al . provide a possible explanation for the absence of the cooling effect.

Description: Tree ring records are often used as a proxy for past climate. Trees form a new growth ring each year, and ring widths are related to temperature and other conditions at cold sites. Some recent studies have noted that tree ring width chronologies and resulting climate reconstructions do not appear to show the widespread cooling in the past millennium that would be expected following large volcanic eruptions. One hypothesis suggests that regional cooling after a volcanic eruption could be so severe that many trees do not form a ring at all, which leads researchers to misdate the tree ring chronology.

Description: In the Luzon Strait, which lies between the Philippines and Taiwan and connects the western Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea, ridges extending along the ocean bottom generate large internal tides—waves with a tidal frequency within the ocean, not on its surface—that propagate into the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean.

Description: For the past few decades the upper reaches of Earth's atmosphere have been cooling much faster than researchers anticipated. While the rising atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is heating the air near the ground, that same increase is expected to cool the thermosphere—the atmospheric band that stretches from around 80 kilometers altitude to the exosphere at 500 kilometers—by emitting heat into space. However, while carbon dioxide should theoretically cool the thermosphere by around 2 kelvins per decade, the observed cooling was around 10 times this rate. Building on recent theoretical and modeling work, Oliver et al . lay out a mechanism that could explain the observed cooling.

Description: “We made it,” Voyager project scientist Ed Stone announced at a 12 September briefing at NASA headquarters in Washington, D. C. NASA's Voyager 1 spacecraft, the most distant human-made object, is now the first such object to enter interstellar space, the space between the stars. “The 36-year-old probe is now sailing the uncharted waters of a new cosmic sea, and it has brought us along for the journey,” Stone said.

Description: In the 23 July 2013 issue of Eos , we provided a broad update on recent events in AGU publishing, focusing on the partnership with John Wiley & Sons ( Eos , 94 (30), 264–266, doi:10.1002/2013EO300009). Here we briefly comment on the latest developments in the partnership, but the main focus is on recent events regarding open access as it relates to AGU publishing.

Description: Spatial and seasonal variations in evapotranspiration over Canada's landmass Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3561-3575, 2013 Author(s): S. Wang, Y. Yang, Y. Luo, and A. Rivera A 30 yr (1979–2008) dataset of actual evapotranspiration (ET) at 1 km resolution was generated over Canada's landmass by integrating remote sensing land surface data and gridded climate data using the EALCO model run at a 30 min time step. This long-term high-resolution dataset was used to characterize the spatiotemporal variations in ET across Canada. The results show that annual ET varied from 600 mm yr −1 over several regions in the south to less than 100 mm yr −1 in the northern Arctic. Nationally, ET in summer (i.e., June to August) comprised 65% of the annual total amount. ET in the cold season remained mostly below 10 mm month −1 over the country. Negative monthly ET was obtained over the Arctic region in winter, indicating EALCO simulated a larger amount of condensation than ET. Overall, the mean ET over the entire Canadian landmass for the 30 yr was 239 mm yr −1 , or 44% of its corresponding precipitation. Comparisons of available ET studies in Canada revealed large uncertainties in ET estimates associated with using different approaches. The scarcity of ET measurements for the diverse ecosystems in Canada remains a significant challenge for reducing the uncertainties; this gap needs to be addressed in future studies to improve capabilities in climate/weather modeling and water resource management.

Description: Post-processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short-term streamflow forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3587-3603, 2013 Author(s): D. E. Robertson, D. L. Shrestha, and Q. J. Wang Sub-daily ensemble rainfall forecasts that are bias free and reliably quantify forecast uncertainty are critical for flood and short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting. Post-processing of rainfall predictions from numerical weather prediction models is typically required to provide rainfall forecasts with these properties. In this paper, a new approach to generate ensemble rainfall forecasts by post-processing raw numerical weather prediction (NWP) rainfall predictions is introduced. The approach uses a simplified version of the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to produce forecast probability distributions for individual locations and forecast lead times. Ensemble forecasts with appropriate spatial and temporal correlations are then generated by linking samples from the forecast probability distributions using the Schaake shuffle. The new approach is evaluated by applying it to post-process predictions from the ACCESS-R numerical weather prediction model at rain gauge locations in the Ovens catchment in southern Australia. The joint distribution of NWP predicted and observed rainfall is shown to be well described by the assumed log-sinh transformed bivariate normal distribution. Ensemble forecasts produced using the approach are shown to be more skilful than the raw NWP predictions both for individual forecast lead times and for cumulative totals throughout all forecast lead times. Skill increases result from the correction of not only the mean bias, but also biases conditional on the magnitude of the NWP rainfall prediction. The post-processed forecast ensembles are demonstrated to successfully discriminate between events and non-events for both small and large rainfall occurrences, and reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. Future work will assess the efficacy of the post-processing method for a wider range of climatic conditions and also investigate the benefits of using post-processed rainfall forecasts for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting.

Description: Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3661-3677, 2013 Author(s): A. F. Lutz, W. W. Immerzeel, A. Gobiet, F. Pellicciotti, and M. F. P. Bierkens Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July–September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October–February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

Description: Given today's enormous management and protection challenges related to the world's oceans, a new competition calls on ocean scientists to effectively communicate their research in videos that last up to 3 minutes. The Ocean 180 Video Challenge, named for the number of seconds in 3 minutes, aims to improve ocean science communication while providing high school and middle school teachers and students with new and interesting educational materials about current science topics.

Description: Earth's nighttime environment is being revealed in unprecedented detail by the new satellite-mounted Visible/Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). VIIRS' Day/Night Band (DNB) is a highly sensitive broadband visible channel capable of detecting light from cities and other terrestrial emission sources.

Description: Thank you very much, Alberto, for your nice comments and the precious support you have given me since the very beginning of my scientific career.

Description: AGU has created a new award that honors members whose achievements extend beyond those recognized by traditional scientific discipline awards. The award furthers AGU's strategic goals to promote collaboration and innovation, inform society about Earth and space science, and build the global talent pool.

Description: I am delighted to present Professor Gabriel Katul of Duke University with the 2012 Hydrologic Sciences Award. He has made massive contributions to the understanding and prediction of hydrology, and it is for his work that we (Professors Poporato, Hornberger, Rinaldo, Rodriguez-Iturbe, Brutsaert, and Raupach) nominated him.

Description: Space weather can affect satellite performance and cause “anomalies,” unexplained problems ranging from a minor temporary glitch to a complete failure of a component. Understanding these effects requires looking at the relationship between space weather conditions and anomalies. However, data on commercial satellite anomalies have not often been made available for scientists to study.

Description: Dust, which affects weather and climate and can be hazardous to health, can be generated when sand or silt grains are either dislodged from the surface by other windblown grains (saltation) or lifted by wind directly (direct entrainment). Direct entrainment of silt has been thought to generate only minimal quantities of dust, and atmospheric models that include dust usually assume that dust generation occurs through saltation.

Description: Thank you, Marc, for the kind comments and unwavering support as a mentor and friend. I am honored by this award, which I share with many people.

Description: When scientists confirmed on 12 September that NASA's Voyager 1 spacecraft had entered interstellar space ( Eos, 94 (39), 339, doi:10.1002/2013EO390003), the probe was acknowledged as the first human-made object to travel into that realm. The probe and its twin, Voyager 2, each carry a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk, known as the Golden Record.

Description: Humans are now the dominant driver of global climate change. From ocean acidification to sea level rise, changes in precipitation patterns, and rising temperatures, global warming is presenting us with an uncertain future. However, this is not the first time human civilizations have faced a changing world. In the AGU monograph Climates, Landscapes, and Civilizations, editors Liviu Giosan, Dorian Q. Fuller, Kathleen Nicoll, Rowan K. Flad, and Peter C. Clift explore how some ancient peoples weathered the shifting storms while some faded away. In this interview , Eos speaks with Liviu Giosan about the decay of civilizations, ancient adaptation, and the surprisingly long history of humanity's effect on the Earth .

Description: Prediction of dissolved reactive phosphorus losses from small agricultural catchments: calibration and validation of a parsimonious model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3679-3693, 2013 Author(s): C. Hahn, V. Prasuhn, C. Stamm, P. Lazzarotto, M. W. H. Evangelou, and R. Schulin Eutrophication of surface waters due to diffuse phosphorus (P) losses continues to be a severe water quality problem worldwide, causing the loss of ecosystem functions of the respective water bodies. Phosphorus in runoff often originates from a small fraction of a catchment only. Targeting mitigation measures to these critical source areas (CSAs) is expected to be most efficient and cost-effective, but requires suitable tools. Here we investigated the capability of the parsimonious Rainfall-Runoff-Phosphorus (RRP) model to identify CSAs in grassland-dominated catchments based on readily available soil and topographic data. After simultaneous calibration on runoff data from four small hilly catchments on the Swiss Plateau, the model was validated on a different catchment in the same region without further calibration. The RRP model adequately simulated the discharge and dissolved reactive P (DRP) export from the validation catchment. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model predictions were robust with respect to the classification of soils into "poorly drained" and "well drained", based on the available soil map. Comparing spatial hydrological model predictions with field data from the validation catchment provided further evidence that the assumptions underlying the model are valid and that the model adequately accounts for the dominant P export processes in the target region. Thus, the parsimonious RRP model is a valuable tool that can be used to determine CSAs. Despite the considerable predictive uncertainty regarding the spatial extent of CSAs, the RRP can provide guidance for the implementation of mitigation measures. The model helps to identify those parts of a catchment where high DRP losses are expected or can be excluded with high confidence. Legacy P was predicted to be the dominant source for DRP losses and thus, in combination with hydrologic active areas, a high risk for water quality.

Description: High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: a first evaluation of the ALADIN-Climate model in Morocco Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3721-3739, 2013 Author(s): Y. Tramblay, D. Ruelland, S. Somot, R. Bouaicha, and E. Servat In the framework of the international CORDEX program, new regional climate model (RCM) simulations at high spatial resolutions are becoming available for the Mediterranean region (Med-CORDEX initiative). This study provides the first evaluation for hydrological impact studies of one of these high-resolution simulations in a 1800 km 2 catchment located in North Morocco. Different approaches are compared to analyze the climate change impacts on the hydrology of this catchment using a high-resolution RCM (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative at two different spatial resolutions (50 and 12 km) and for two different Radiative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The main issues addressed in the present study are: (i) what is the impact of increased RCM resolution on present-climate hydrological simulations and on future projections? (ii) Are the bias-correction of the RCM model and the parameters of the hydrological model stationary and transferable to different climatic conditions? (iii) What is the climate and hydrological change signal based on the new Radiative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)? Results indicate that high resolution simulations at 12 km better reproduce the seasonal patterns, the seasonal distributions and the extreme events of precipitation. The parameters of the hydrological model, calibrated to reproduce runoff at the monthly time step over the 1984–2010 period, do not show a strong variability between dry and wet calibration periods in a differential split-sample test. However the bias correction of precipitation by quantile-matching does not give satisfactory results in validation using the same differential split-sample testing method. Therefore a quantile-perturbation method that does not rely on any stationarity assumption and produces ensembles of perturbed series of precipitation was introduced. The climate change signal under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicates a decrease of respectively −30 to −57% in surface runoff for the mid-term (2041–2062), when for the same period the projections for precipitation are ranging between −15 and −19% and for temperature between +1.3 and +1.9 °C.

Description: Errors in climate model daily precipitation and temperature output: time invariance and implications for bias correction Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2147-2159, 2013 Author(s): E. P. Maurer, T. Das, and D. R. Cayan When correcting for biases in general circulation model (GCM) output, for example when statistically downscaling for regional and local impacts studies, a common assumption is that the GCM biases can be characterized by comparing model simulations and observations for a historical period. We demonstrate some complications in this assumption, with GCM biases varying between mean and extreme values and for different sets of historical years. Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature from late 20th century simulations by four GCMs over the United States were compared to gridded observations. Using random years from the historical record we select a "base" set and a 10 yr independent "projected" set. We compare differences in biases between these sets at median and extreme percentiles. On average a base set with as few as 4 randomly-selected years is often adequate to characterize the biases in daily GCM precipitation and temperature, at both median and extreme values; 12 yr provided higher confidence that bias correction would be successful. This suggests that some of the GCM bias is time invariant. When characterizing bias with a set of consecutive years, the set must be long enough to accommodate regional low frequency variability, since the bias also exhibits this variability. Newer climate models included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fifth assessment will allow extending this study for a longer observational period and to finer scales.

Description: Characterization of groundwater dynamics in landslides in varved clays Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2171-2183, 2013 Author(s): J. E. van der Spek, T. A. Bogaard, and M. Bakker Groundwater dynamics may play a significant role in landslides. A detailed model is developed of the groundwater dynamics in landslides in varved clays in the Trièves area in the French Alps. The varved clays consist of a sequence of alternating silt and clay layers, covered by a colluvium layer and intersected by fissures. The hydraulic conductivity of the clay layers is negligible compared to the silt layers. It is conceptualized that fissures form a hydraulic connection between the colluvium and the varved clays. Groundwater recharge flows through the colluvium into the fissures, where water is exchanged horizontally between the fissure and the silt layers of the varved clays. Groundwater flow in the colluvium is simulated with the Boussinesq equation, while flow in the silt layers of the varved clays is simulated with the Richards equation. Longitudinal outflow from the fissure is simulated with a linear-reservoir model. Scattered data of relatively short monitoring periods is available for several landslides in the region. A good similarity between observed and simulated heads is obtained, especially when considering the lack of important physical parameters such as the fissure width and the distance between the monitoring point and the fissure. A simulation for the period 1959–2004 showed some correlation between peaks in the simulated heads and the recorded occurrence of landslides, while the bottom of the varved clays remained saturated during the entire simulation period.

Description: Assessing the hydrological effect of the check dams in the Loess Plateau, China, by model simulations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2185-2193, 2013 Author(s): Y. D. Xu, B. J. Fu, and C. S. He Check dams are commonly used for soil conservation. In the Loess Plateau of China, check dams have been widely constructed as the principal means to retain floodwater and intercept soil sediments since the 1970s. For instance, there are more than 6572 check dams in the Yanhe watershed with an area of 7725 km 2 in the Loess Plateau. However, little research has been done to quantify the hydrological effects of the check dams. In this research, the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied to simulate the runoff and sediment in the Yanhe watershed. We treated the 1950s to 1960s as the reference period since there were very few check dams during the period. The model was firstly calibrated and validated in the reference period. The calibrated model was then used in the later periods to simulate the hydrological effects of the check dams. The results showed that the check dams had a regulation effect on runoff and a retention effect on sediment. From 1984 to 1987, the runoff in rainy season (from May to October) decreased by 1.54 m 3 s −1 (14.7%) to 3.13 m 3 s −1 (25.9%) due to the check dams; while in dry season (from November to the following April), runoff increased by 1.46 m 3 s −1 (60.5%) to 1.95 m 3 s −1 (101.2%); the sediment in rainy season decreased by 2.49 × 10 6 ton (34.6%) to 4.35 × 10 6 ton (48.0%). From 2006 to 2008, the runoff in rainy season decreased by 0.79 m 3 s −1 (15.5%) to 1.75 m 3 s −1 (28.9%), and the runoff in dry season increased by 0.51 m 3 s −1 (20.1%) to 0.97 m 3 s −1 (46.4%); the sediment in rainy season decreased by 2.03 × 10 6 ton (79.4%) to 3.12 × 10 6 ton (85.5%). Construction of the large number of check dams in the Loess Plateau has enhanced the region's capacity to control the runoff and sediment. In the Yanhe watershed, the annual runoff was reduced by less than 14.3% due to the check dams; and the sediment in rainy season was blocked by up to 85.5%. Thus, check dams are effective measures for soil erosion control in the Loess Plateau.

Description: Although some existing carbon markets are facing structural issues and economic difficulties in Europe have put a damper on the European Union emissions trading system, new carbon pricing initiatives are developing rapidly, and these initiatives could help slow down greenhouse gas emissions, according to a 29 May report from the World Bank.

Description: Tropical cyclone–generated storm surges are among the world's most deadly and costly natural disasters. The destructive nature of this hazard was clearly seen last fall, as Hurricane Sandy generated a devastating storm surge along the mid-Atlantic coast. The storm killed 147 people and caused approximately $50 billion in economic losses [Blake et al., 2012].

Description: Rifting of stable continents is a key element of plate tectonic cycles. In spite of numerous studies, the mechanism responsible for the initiation and evolution of rift valleys such as the East African Rift System (EARS) is still poorly understood, partly because most previous investigations focused on rift segments that were in the mature stage. Geodynamic modeling [ Huismans et al ., 2001] suggests that upwelling of the asthenosphere ubiquitously observed beneath mature rifts can either originate from thermal or dynamic anomalies in the deep mantle (active rifting) or be induced by thinning of the lithosphere from far-field stresses (passive rifting) [ Sengor and Burke , 1978].

Description: Determining spatial variability of dry spells: a Markov-based method, applied to the Makanya catchment, Tanzania Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2161-2170, 2013 Author(s): B. M. C. Fischer, M. L. Mul, and H. H. G. Savenije With a growing world population and a trend towards more resource-intensive diets, pressure on land and water resources for food production will continue to increase in the coming decades. Large parts of the world rely on rainfed agriculture for their food security. In Africa, 90% of the food production is from rainfed agriculture, generally with low yields and a high risk of crop failure. One of the main reasons for crop failure is the occurrence of dry spells during the growing season. Key indicators are the critical dry spell duration and the probability of dry spell occurrence. In this paper a new Markov-based framework is presented to spatially map the length of dry spells for fixed probabilities of non-exceedance. The framework makes use of spatially varying Markov coefficients that are correlated to readily available spatial information such as elevation and distance to the sea. The dry spell map thus obtained is compared to the spatially variable critical dry spell duration, based on soil properties and crop water requirements, to assess the probability of crop failure in different locations. The results show that in the Makanya catchment the length of dry spell occurrence is highly variable in space, even over relatively short distances. In certain areas the probability of crop failure reaches levels that make rainfed agricultural unsustainable, even close to areas where currently rainfed agriculture is successfully being practised. This method can be used to identify regions that are vulnerable to dry spells and, subsequently, to develop strategies for supplementary irrigation or rainwater harvesting.

Description: Graphite is known to be a low-friction material, and rocks rich in graphite are often found in fault zones. Oohashi et al . conducted laboratory studies to determine how much graphite is needed to reduce the frictional strength of a fault. Their experiments included samples with various mixtures of graphite and quartz, as well as pure quartz and pure graphite, and they covered large displacements (up to 100 meters), a range of slip rates (from 200 micrometers per second to 1.3 meters per second), and a range of shear strains (up to several tens of thousands).

Description: The U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS) recently announced its 2013 class of new members. They include Gregory Asner , faculty scientist in the Department of Global Ecology at the Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, Calif.; Mark Cane , G. Unger Vetlesen Professor of Earth and Climate Sciences in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, N. Y.; Kenneth Farley , W. M. Keck Foundation Professor of Geochemistry and chair of the Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology (Caltech), Pasadena; Terry Plank , professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Lamont-Doherty; and John Seinfeld , Louis E. Nohl Professor in the Department of Chemical Engineering at Caltech.

Description: The inner magnetosphere ring current, which circles the Earth a few Earth radii above the surface, consists of energetic ions and electrons and plays an important role in the space environment. During geomagnetic storms the flow in the ring current rises dramatically. The behavior of the ring current and other features of the inner magnetosphere depend strongly on conditions in other regions of the magnetosphere. The small scale of the particle dynamics that drive the ring current, compared to the vast spatial scale of the entire magnetosphere, makes it difficult to represent both the nuance of the inner magnetosphere and the full scope of the magnetospheric system.

Description: The stratigraphic record, the sequential layers of sediment that geologists use to reconstruct the history of a landscape, has been described as “more gaps than record.” The record, laid down over time as sediment settles out from flowing water, does not grow consistently. Pauses in sediment deposition can leave gaps, and periods of heightened erosion can wipe out sections. Although attempts have been made to identify the processes that control the completeness of the stratigraphic record, early analyses relied on parameters (such as the long-term sediment accumulation rate) that are not first-order physical landscape processes.

Description: Estimating actual, potential, reference crop and pan evaporation using standard meteorological data: a pragmatic synthesis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1331-1363, 2013 Author(s): T. A. McMahon, M. C. Peel, L. Lowe, R. Srikanthan, and T. R. McVicar This guide to estimating daily and monthly actual, potential, reference crop and pan evaporation covers topics that are of interest to researchers, consulting hydrologists and practicing engineers. Topics include estimating actual evaporation from deep lakes and from farm dams and for catchment water balance studies, estimating potential evaporation as input to rainfall-runoff models, and reference crop evapotranspiration for small irrigation areas, and for irrigation within large irrigation districts. Inspiration for this guide arose in response to the authors' experiences in reviewing research papers and consulting reports where estimation of the actual evaporation component in catchment and water balance studies was often inadequately handled. Practical guides using consistent terminology that cover both theory and practice are not readily available. Here we provide such a guide, which is divided into three parts. The first part provides background theory and an outline of the conceptual models of potential evaporation of Penman, Penman–Monteith and Priestley–Taylor, as well as discussions of reference crop evapotranspiration and Class-A pan evaporation. The last two sub-sections in this first part include techniques to estimate actual evaporation from (i) open-surface water and (ii) landscapes and catchments (Morton and the advection-aridity models). The second part addresses topics confronting a practicing hydrologist, e.g. estimating actual evaporation for deep lakes, shallow lakes and farm dams, lakes covered with vegetation, catchments, irrigation areas and bare soil. The third part addresses six related issues: (i) automatic (hard wired) calculation of evaporation estimates in commercial weather stations, (ii) evaporation estimates without wind data, (iii) at-site meteorological data, (iv) dealing with evaporation in a climate change environment, (v) 24 h versus day-light hour estimation of meteorological variables, and (vi) uncertainty in evaporation estimates. This paper is supported by a Supplement that includes 21 sections enhancing the material in the text, worked examples of many procedures discussed in the paper, a program listing (Fortran 90) of Morton's WREVAP evaporation models along with tables of monthly Class-A pan coefficients for 68 locations across Australia and other information.

Description: With increasing frequency, we are hearing reports and declarations about the real and impending impacts associated with changing hydrologic and physical systems. Droughts are forecasted to expand and persist, storms are increasing in frequency and intensity, and reservoirs are draining, filling up with sediment, or overflowing. The obvious conclusion is that we are in a changing, dynamic time regarding water, weather, and climate.

Description: Despite repeated reassurances from Obama administration officials that it is unlikely that a near-Earth object (NEO) could cause catastrophic damage on Earth anytime over the next several hundred years, members of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space, and Technology kept raising “what if” questions at a 19 March hearing about threats from space.

Description: Mapping extreme snowfalls in mountainous areas is important for directing resources to keep roads clear and manage avalanche risk. But data in mountainous areas are sparse, with instruments often located in valleys far from areas of concern, and historical instrumental records are generally incomplete. Scientists must therefore extrapolate and interpolate from observations to estimate snowfall amounts over a region.

Description: From efforts to help scientists remotely monitor meteorites hitting the Moon to campaigns to count craters on raw images of the asteroid Vesta, creative strategies to utilize the public's ability to collect and analyze data are being employed for a variety of lunar and planetary science projects. According to speakers at a session called “Rising to the challenge: Improving public understanding of science in the next decade,” held at the 44th annual Lunar and Planetary Science Conference in The Woodlands, Tex., from 18 to 22 March, these citizen science projects tap into public enthusiasm about worlds beyond our own.

Description: Corrigendum to "Calibration of aerodynamic roughness over the Tibetan Plateau with Ensemble Kalman Filter analysed heat flux" published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4291–4302, 2012 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1309-1310, 2013 Author(s): J. H. Lee, J. Timmermans, Z. Su, and M. Mancini No abstract available.

Description: Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1311-1318, 2013 Author(s): F. Yusof, I. L. Kane, and Z. Yusop A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d) processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semiparametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983) to analyse nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long memory. Furthermore, an empirical fluctuation process using the ordinary least square (OLS)-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test for the break date was applied. Break dates were detected in all data sets. The data sets were partitioned according to their respective break date, and a further test for long memory was applied for all subseries. Results show that all subseries follows the same pattern as the original series. The estimate of the fractional parameters d 1 and d 2 on the subseries obtained by splitting the original series at the break date confirms that there is a long memory in the data generating process (DGP). Therefore this evidence shows a true long memory not due to structural break.

Description: Snow glacier melt estimation in tropical Andean glaciers using artificial neural networks Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1265-1280, 2013 Author(s): V. Moya Quiroga, A. Mano, Y. Asaoka, S. Kure, K. Udo, and J. Mendoza Snow and glacier melt (SGM) estimation plays an important role in water resources management. Although melting process can be modelled by energy balance methods, such studies require detailed data, which is rarely available. Hence, new and simpler approaches are needed for SGM estimations. The present study aims at developing an artificial neural networks (ANN) based technique for estimating the energy available for melt (EAM) and SGM rates using available and easy to obtain data such as temperature, short-wave radiation and relative humidity. Several ANN and multiple linear regression models (MLR) were developed to represent the energy fluxes and estimate the EAM. The models were trained using measured data from the Zongo glacier located in the outer tropics and validated against measured data from the Antizana glacier located in the inner tropics. It was found that ANN models provide a better generalisation when applied to other data sets. The performance of the models was improved by including Antizana data into the training set, as it was proved to provide better results than other techniques like the use of a prior logarithmic transformation. The final model was validated against measured data from the Alpine glaciers Argentière and Saint-Sorlin. Then, the models were applied for the estimation of SGM at Condoriri glacier. The estimated SGM was compared with SGM estimated by an enhanced temperature method and proved to have the same behaviour considering temperature sensibility. Moreover, the ANN models have the advantage of direct application, while the temperature method requires calibration of empirical coefficients.

Description: Assessment of shallow subsurface characterisation with non-invasive geophysical methods at the intermediate hill-slope scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1297-1307, 2013 Author(s): S. Popp, D. Altdorff, and P. Dietrich Hill-slopes of several hectares in size represent a difficult scale for subsurface characterisation, as these landscape units are well beyond the scope of traditional point-scale techniques. By means of electromagnetic induction (EMI) and gamma-ray spectroscopy, spatially distributed soil proxy data were collected from a heterogeneous hill-slope site. Results of EMI mapping using the EM38DD showed that soil electrical conductivity (ECa) is highly variable at both temporal and spatial scales. Calibration of the integral ECa signal to a specific target like soil moisture is hampered by the ambiguous response of EMI to the clay-rich hill-slope underground. Gamma-ray results were obtained during a single survey, along with EMI measurements and selected soil sampling. In contrast to ECa, a noticeable correlation between Total Count and K emission data and soil-water content seemed to be present. Relevant proxy variables from both methods were used for k means clustering in order to distinguish between hill-slope areas with different soil conditions. As a result, we obtained a suitable partition of hill-slope that was comparable with a previously obtained zonation model based on ecological factors.

Description: Multivariate return periods in hydrology: a critical and practical review focusing on synthetic design hydrograph estimation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1281-1296, 2013 Author(s): B. Gräler, M. J. van den Berg, S. Vandenberghe, A. Petroselli, S. Grimaldi, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest Most of the hydrological and hydraulic studies refer to the notion of a return period to quantify design variables. When dealing with multiple design variables, the well-known univariate statistical analysis is no longer satisfactory, and several issues challenge the practitioner. How should one incorporate the dependence between variables? How should a multivariate return period be defined and applied in order to yield a proper design event? In this study an overview of the state of the art for estimating multivariate design events is given and the different approaches are compared. The construction of multivariate distribution functions is done through the use of copulas, given their practicality in multivariate frequency analyses and their ability to model numerous types of dependence structures in a flexible way. A synthetic case study is used to generate a large data set of simulated discharges that is used for illustrating the effect of different modelling choices on the design events. Based on different uni- and multivariate approaches, the design hydrograph characteristics of a 3-D phenomenon composed of annual maximum peak discharge, its volume, and duration are derived. These approaches are based on regression analysis, bivariate conditional distributions, bivariate joint distributions and Kendall distribution functions, highlighting theoretical and practical issues of multivariate frequency analysis. Also an ensemble-based approach is presented. For a given design return period, the approach chosen clearly affects the calculated design event, and much attention should be given to the choice of the approach used as this depends on the real-world problem at hand.

Description: Derivation of RCM-driven potential evapotranspiration for hydrological climate change impact analysis in Great Britain: a comparison of methods and associated uncertainty in future projections Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1365-1377, 2013 Author(s): C. Prudhomme and J. Williamson Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the water that would be lost by plants through evaporation and transpiration if water was not limited in the soil, and it is commonly used in conceptual hydrological modelling in the calculation of runoff production and hence river discharge. Future changes of PET are likely to be as important as changes in precipitation patterns in determining changes in river flows. However PET is not calculated routinely by climate models so it must be derived independently when the impact of climate change on river flow is to be assessed. This paper compares PET estimates from 12 equations of different complexity, driven by the Hadley Centre's HadRM3-Q0 model outputs representative of 1961–1990, with MORECS PET, a product used as reference PET in Great Britain. The results show that the FAO56 version of the Penman–Monteith equations reproduces best the spatial and seasonal variability of MORECS PET across GB when driven by HadRM3-Q0 estimates of relative humidity, total cloud, wind speed and linearly bias-corrected mean surface temperature. This suggests that potential biases in HadRM3-Q0 climate do not result in significant biases when the physically based FAO56 equations are used. Percentage changes in PET between the 1961–1990 and 2041–2070 time slices were also calculated for each of the 12 PET equations from HadRM3-Q0. Results show a large variation in the magnitude (and sometimes direction) of changes estimated from different PET equations, with Turc, Jensen–Haise and calibrated Blaney–Criddle methods systematically projecting the largest increases across GB for all months and Priestley–Taylor, Makkink, and Thornthwaite showing the smallest changes. We recommend the use of the FAO56 equation as, when driven by HadRM3-Q0 climate data, this best reproduces the reference MORECS PET across Great Britain for the reference period of 1961–1990. Further, the future changes of PET estimated by FAO56 are within the range of uncertainty defined by the ensemble of 12 PET equations. The changes show a clear northwest–southeast gradient of PET increase with largest (smallest) changes in the northwest in January (July and October) respectively. However, the range in magnitude of PET changes due to the choice of PET method shown in this study for Great Britain suggests that PET uncertainty is a challenge facing the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology mostly ignored up to now.

Description: Holly Bamford has been appointed the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's assistant administrator for the agency's National Ocean Service (NOS). She previously served as deputy assistant administrator for NOS.

Description: From a national collaboration among citizen scientists, educational institutions, environmental organizations, and federal agencies, Jeong et al . developed the first countrywide assessment of springtime tree budding based on in-the-field measurements. The phenological assessment, which measured the timing of bud burst for five tree species, was used to build a model of species-specific budding across the continental United States. Using their tree budding model in forecasts of future climate change, the authors found that by the end of the century, tree budding across the United States will occur more than 1 month earlier in some places.

Description: During accretion and differentiation of the Earth, chemical interactions in a silicate magma ocean and liquid iron drove silicon and oxygen impurities into what went on to become the liquid outer core. Contrasting with previous research, which suggested that silicon and oxygen would only appear in very low concentrations (less than 1% by weight) in the liquid iron, Tsuno et al . found that at the base of a magma ocean 1200 kilometers deep, these light elements could simultaneously reach concentrations as high as 5% oxygen and 8% silicon by weight. Such impurity levels would decrease the density of the outer core, accounting for the so-called “density deficit” identified in previous research, whereby the outer core is roughly 10% less dense than a pure iron-nickel alloy.

Description: Scientists from 18 countries gathered in Monte Verità, Switzerland, for SOM–5, a workshop dedicated to a discussion of global biogeochemical cycling of organic matter (OM) in soil, river, and marine environments. The 95 participants represented a range of areas of expertise, including soil and ocean science, marine chemistry, global carbon cycling, geomorphology, and organic geochemistry. A large proportion of those attending—40%—were women or early career scientists.

Description: As the Earth's climate warms, the Arctic has been warming more rapidly than the rest of the globe. Some previous studies have suggested that this Arctic amplification of warming is causing an increase in extreme weather events in the midlatitudes. They proposed that this occurs because Arctic warming induces changes in atmospheric circulation, including changes in atmospheric planetary waves that tend to promote persistent extreme weather conditions, such as heat waves, cold spells, droughts, and floods.

Description: With North American ecosystems responsible for drawing hundreds of teragrams of carbon from the atmosphere each year, the tenuous balance of the terrestrial carbon budget can be upset for decades by disturbances such as fires, storms, disease outbreaks, insect infestations, and logging. Research cataloging the effects of such disturbances on regional carbon cycling tends to be sporadic or of limited scope. Most research has focused on forests but is less extensive for other important ecosystems such as grasslands or permafrost peatlands.

Description: College students planning to major in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields often drop out of those fields because of poorer than expected grades, according to a recent study. Conducted by Ralph Stinebrickner of Berea College in Kentucky and Todd Stinebrickner of the University of Western Ontario, the study is a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper published in June 2013.

Description: Beaches on Fire Island, New York, lost more than half of their sand as a result of Hurricane Sandy, according to a new report by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Fire Island is one of the barrier islands along the south shore of Long Island, N. Y. The finding, released 27 August, involved field surveys conducted before and after the storm. In addition, the researchers used lidar and aerial photography to evaluate changes to the beaches and shoreline and determined the volume and distribution of overwash deposits that were carried to the island's interior following the storm.