ALBERT

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 5 July 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Sorin M.S. Krammer, Alfredo Jiménez〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉We posit that the investments in political connections made by a firm in an emerging market will impact differently its propensity to introduce radical and incremental innovations. In addition, we argue that this effect will be moderated by alternate non-market firm strategies, such as bribery. Using a dataset of more than 9000 firms in 30 emerging economies from Eastern Europe and Central Asia we find that political connections increase the probability of radical innovation but have no significant impact on incremental innovation. Moreover, larger bribing reduces the positive impact of political connections on radical innovation. Our results confirm the importance of political connections for firm activities, but also caution firms on their heterogeneous impact on various types of innovations, and their detrimental interplay with other non-market strategies.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 10 April 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): John Rice, Nigel Martin〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Smart Information and Communications Technology (ICT) is envisaged to provide the capabilities to plan, design, construct, operate and manage Australia's key infrastructure. With over 75% of Australia's population living in cities and accessing public and private goods and services, ICT is positioned as a strategic resource for smart infrastructure developments. In this study, international and domestic stakeholder inputs on the future role of smart ICT in advancing Australia's infrastructure development and operations were crowdsourced for analysis. The study identifies several forms of smart ICT (e.g. building information modelling software) enabled infrastructure that possesses potential to deliver over A$9 billion per annum in domestic economic improvements, with commensurate advancement of communities, regions and urban environments. However, to be effective these smart ICT require enablement through open and interoperable data, sound governance and policy, and government leadership and coordination using dedicated resources. While smart infrastructure development is presently slow and lumbering, the identified smart ICT present as valuable strategic technologies for change and development in domestic communities.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 24 April 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Rahat Iqbal, Faiyaz Doctor, Brian More, Shahid Mahmud, Usman Yousuf〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Big Data has significant impact in developing functional smart cities and supporting modern societies. In this paper, we investigate the importance of Big Data in modern life and economy, and discuss challenges arising from Big Data utilization. Different computational intelligence techniques have been considered as tools for Big Data analytics. We also explore the powerful combination of Big Data and Computational Intelligence (CI) and identify a number of areas, where novel applications in real world smart city problems can be developed by utilizing these powerful tools and techniques. We present a case study for intelligent transportation in the context of a smart city, and a novel data modelling methodology based on a biologically inspired universal generative modelling approach called Hierarchical Spatial-Temporal State Machine (HSTSM). We further discuss various implications of policy, protection, valuation and commercialization related to Big Data, its applications and deployment.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 12 April 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): F.W. Geels, A. McMeekin, B. Pfluger〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Social acceptance and political feasibility are important issues in low-carbon transitions. Since computer models struggle to address these issues, the paper advances socio-technical scenarios as a novel methodological tool. Contributing to recent dialogue approaches, we develop an eight-step methodological procedure that produces socio-technical scenarios through various interactions between the multi-level perspective and computer models. As a specific contribution, we propose ‘transition bottlenecks’ as a methodological aid to mediate dialogue between qualitative MLP-based analysis of 〈em〉contemporary〈/em〉 dynamics and quantitative, model-generated 〈em〉future〈/em〉 pathways. The transition bottlenecks also guide the articulation of socio-technical storylines that suggest how the social acceptance and political feasibility of particular low-carbon innovations can be improved through social interactions and endogenous changes in discourses, preferences, support coalitions and policies. Drawing on results from the 3-year PATHWAYS project, we demonstrate these contributions for the UK electricity system, developing two low-carbon transition pathways to 2050 commensurate with the 2 °C target, one based on technological substitution (enacted by incumbent actors), and one based on broader system transformation (enacted by new entrants).〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Emrah Karakilic〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The transition from industrial capitalism to cognitive capitalism and the rise of the digital revolution have brought the subject of intellectual property rights to the forefront as a controversial issue. This paper holds that the theoretical apparatus and concepts belonging to the industrial phase of capitalism largely fall short with respect to the repercussions that intellectual property rights regime yields. Embracing the methodological precept that social theory must be moulded in order to address the contours of contemporary social reality, this paper engages in an autonomist Marxist update on the concept of intellectual property rights. It ultimately challenges the “intellectual property rights are a socio-economic need” thesis and speculatively argues that the current system of intellectual property rights, directed politically towards the enclosure of commons, constitutes a structural contradiction by i) forming a basis for a social crisis in terms of the established relations of production, and ii) curtailing a part of the socio-economic opportunities for innovation, profit-making, and growth.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 9 April 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Daniela Maresch, Johannes Gartner〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Disruptive technological change can contribute to a more abundant world. However, potentially disruptive technologies often struggle to significantly influence practice. One prominent example is additive manufacturing (AM). Although AM is often regarded as the next great technological revolution in waiting, it has not yet established itself on a large scale in many fields of application. We investigate the reasons behind those challenges by looking at the various fields in which AM is applied and relating them to the specific challenges AM faces, as well as the opportunities it offers in those fields. Our findings rely on a multi-perspective technology foresight process that is based on a discourse analytic approach and that comprises data tomography covering the biggest German-language online magazine on AM and qualitative interview data collected from a range of AM stakeholders. The findings provide an empirically well-founded evaluation and explanation of the link between the challenges and opportunities offered by AM and the extent to which this disruptive technology is leveraged in specific fields. The findings prompt recommendations on how new potentially disruptive technologies can foster abundance in traditional, well established market economies based on the example of the well-developed but traditional market economy of Austria.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 24 April 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Måns Nilsson, Adis Dzebo, Georgia Savvidou, Katarina Axelsson〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Quantitative models of transitions, such as energy systems models and integrated assessment models, do not usually represent social processes, institutions and politics. Their view of societal transitions, along with the governance required to drive them, is therefore limited. Socio-technical systems approaches, in contrast, represent the social side but lack a quantitative view of the future system. This paper addresses this by bridging an energy systems model with socio-technical systems analysis and a local action study, analysing the future transition of the residential heating system in Sweden. The paper focuses on demand-side shifts that would drive a transition to a highly efficient, low-carbon heating system until 2050. A conceptual framework for bridging three approaches is introduced and applied. For example, niche-innovations identified in the socio-technical study are implemented as scenario options in the model. Landscape signals are external drivers of the scenario, and the regime study identifies barriers and governance requirements. The local action study provides insights into community attitudes affecting niches and regime change. Our results indicate that the linking of approaches is meaningful, in that it provides an enriched understanding of future systems change in many dimensions. Further research is required using a variety of models on a variety of domains or sectors to draw more generalizable lessons about bridging modelling and social science-based approaches for transition studies.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 146〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Marco Capasso, Teis Hansen, Jonas Heiberg, Antje Klitkou, Markus Steen〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Governments in countries across the world increasingly adopt the “green growth” discourse to underline their ambition for the greening of their economies. The central tenet of this narrative is the economic opportunities rather than challenges arising from the pursuit of environmental sustainability. Our paper synthesises insights from 113 recent scientific articles, dealing with both environmental issues and economic growth, as well as innovation. Our ambition is exploratory in attempting to take stock of heterogeneous contributions across the spectrum of social science. The articles have been reviewed with a focus on six themes, derived from current discussions in economic geography and transition studies: skills, technology, physical resources, markets, institutions and policies. Four major implications emerge from the review. First, green growth requires competences that allow for handling complex, non-routine situations – in both the private and the public sector. Second, technological progress should be directed towards greener technologies, to avoid investments funds being channelled to brown technologies for short-term returns. Third, our knowledge of the opportunities for achieving green growth must base upon a joint assessment of market failures, structural system failures and transformational system failures. Finally, greater attention should be devoted to the geography of green growth processes at different scales.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Juan A. Martínez-Román, Javier Gamero, María de Loreto Delgado-González, Juan A. Tamayo〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Innovation is essential to the knowledge economy and requires organizations to open to external markets. This paper delves into the influence of product innovation on internationalization in SMEs and elaborates an explanatory model of their innovative behavior. Analysis of the data of 123,395 surveys of firms in 13 European countries demonstrates that product innovation drives the firm's commercial expansion and favors its exportation activity, though with a non-linear relationship and decreasing performances as innovation level increases. It is also demonstrated that, in general terms, risk in geographic market extension does not vary in a relevant way when firms are more innovative. Significant differences were detected between countries in regard to the impact of innovation and its marginal utility, and in the evolution of risk in said market extension with increasing innovation. The comparative analysis reveals differences between more and less technological industries, and, on an aggregate level, between more developed economies in the Western and Eastern European transition economies, with less marked disparities from north to south. Analysis of the model reveals the prominence of internal variables in innovative behavior, as well as a certain disconnect between firms and the institutional context in the set of countries.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Haiyan Deng, Ruifa Hu, Carl Pray, Yanhong Jin〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉China has put in place a series of policies to support private companies to engage in biotechnology research. This study uses data from a survey of 103 major agribusiness firms in the agricultural chemical and seed industries in China to evaluate the impact of government policies on private R&D investment in biotechnology. The results show that firms with positive profit expectation, public R&D subsidies, R&D collaboration with universities/research institutes or state-owned enterprises are more likely to embark on biotechnology research activities. Past patenting activity, R&D subsidies and collaboration with public sector research increase firms' biotechnology R&D investment while firms already selling genetically modified products and firms that are state-owned spend less on R&D. Our findings suggest that government policy does have an important impact on firms' biotechnology R&D investment.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yong Liu, Jun-liang Du, Jin-bi Yang, Wu-yong Qian, Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The research and development (R&D) of general purpose technologies (GPTs) is a collaborative effort of innovation involving multiple stakeholders, which has received extensive attention worldwide. Considering the characteristics of China's R&D of Nano-GPT, this research mainly makes two contributions: (1) Based on the theory of conflict analysis, a theoretical framework of Chinese GPTs super-conflict equilibrium is constructed to analyze the decision-making behavior among stakeholders, which enriches the theory of GPTs; (2) Under the framework of super-conflict equilibrium of GPTs, an incentive mechanism is designed to promote the R&D of GPTs from the perspective of cost sharing, and its incentive effect is stable and sustainable. In addition, taking “Suzhou Institute of Nano-Tech and Nano-Bionics (SINANO) of Jiangsu in China” as a case, this paper provides some interesting management suggestions through numerical simulation analysis, which are more suitable for developing countries with similar R&D situation in China's GPTs.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 20 March 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Joyce V. Zwartkruis, Holger Berg, Andries F. Hof, Marcel T.J. Kok〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In this paper three approaches on transitions pathways are combined to study the role of agricultural nature conservation in the Dutch land use domain for achieving internationally agreed climate and biodiversity targets. The three perspectives used are the Multilevel Perspective (MLP), Initiative Based Learning (IBL) and Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM). The analysis provides insights in how the combination of different research approaches can lead to more comprehensive policy advice on how agricultural nature conservation could help to achieve internationally agreed sustainability goals related to climate change and biodiversity. IAM shows under which conditions agricultural nature conservation could be consistent with European and global long-term goals regarding food security, biodiversity and climate. MLP provides insight into the extent in which agricultural nature conservation has affected or changed the existing nature and agricultural regimes. IBL, finally, reveals the challenges of encouraging agricultural nature conservation with policy measures. Our analysis shows that a combined perspective provides a deeper understanding of the underlying processes, reasons and motives of agricultural nature conservation, leading to more comprehensive policy recommendations.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 16 March 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Victor Chang, Yuanyuan Wang, Gary Wills〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This study aims to explore factors influencing behavioral intention to adopt hearing aids among old adults in smart cities. It argues that trust is a moderator to influence the relationship between attitude, subjective norm and individual's behavioral intention in smart cities. This study tests hypotheses using a sample of 103 respondents from six smart cities in China. The results reveal that attitude is main factor influencing individual's behavioral intention. Subjective norm and trust are both not statistically significant at the 95% confidence interval in the model of multiple-regression. Interestingly, it finds that trust moderates the relationship between subjective norm and individual's behavioral intention. It means that the audiologists' advice can positively affect person's behavioral intention in smart cities. The findings imply that the Theory of Reasoned Action can be partially used to explain the person's behavioral intention in Chinese context. This study contributes to encourage old people to use smart hospitals to consult audiologists about hearing loss and hearing aids rehabilitation. Hence, hearing aids can improve their quality of life (QoL), which can be reflected by the improved standard of living, better access to treatments and also the positive sentiment about their life, including comfort, friendship, happiness and a closer connection to the society.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 19 September 2017〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Raj V. Mahto, Olga Belousova, Saurabh Ahluwalia〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The economic philosophy of abundance has provided a new portal to view disruptive innovation. After decades of the world's middle class shrinking and the poor becoming poorer the abundance concept has created an interest in the “Rising Billion” transforming the poor into a more viable economic force and grow a worldwide vibrant middle class throughout the developed, developing and underdeveloped world. The abundance concept provides a new set of potential problems that are spurring new opportunities. The 21st century grand challenges have been enumerated by many but include at least six key basic human necessities: healthcare; water, education; food generation, energy, and the environment. The key to “Abundance” is to better understand the disruptive innovation phenomena, and how it can be used for social change. Scholars have utilized different perspectives to explain innovation phenomenon, but literature on disruptive innovation can benefit from a coherent theoretical framework that can explain origins of disruptive innovation and the role of scarcity/abundance in that process. In this paper, we provide one such theoretical framework to better explain and understand the relationship among scarcity, abundance, and innovation concepts from a market perspective. More specifically, this paper address the need to understand how radical or disruptive innovations occur to create a more abundant world and what market conditions motivates innovators, especially in communities enduring poverty and scarcity of resources such as the “Bottom Billion” and the shrinking middle class to do so. We build a theoretical model of disruptive innovation in a resource-constrained environment by integrating arguments from the theory of social capital, disruptive innovation and entrepreneurial action, and social innovation.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 12 March 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Nazrul Islam, Yorgos Marinakis, Mary Anne Majadillas, Matthias Fink, Steven T. Walsh〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The major challenges facing the 21st century world demands disruptive technology based solutions. One of the most promising exponential technology set to address world challenges is the Internet of Things (IoT) based Trillion Sensor System (TSS). The IoT supports many revolutionary commercial and societal solutions including wearable or unobtrusive medical sensors, Industry 4.0, power and water grids, smart cities, food production, education, transportation and roadway infrastructure needs. However, to support these solutions the current IoT infrastructure needs improved spectrum and the use of between one to ten Trillion Sensors (TS). The development of a robust IoT based TSS infrastructure would create an addition to world GDP equal to that of the U.S. GDP to double the worlds GDP. This new IoT based TSS would create a high paying job base that will form a new vibrant world middle class and an abundant economy. Yet while much is written about the ability of the IoT to transform society little effort is focused on its infrastructure. If this is true there is cause for concern. We add to the literature by developing a precursor road mapping construct which focuses on the service sector and supports 3rd generation road mapping techniques. We utilize the emerging IoT TSS technology base as our case study. We utilize the best thoughts of hundreds of experts from three organizations focused on accelerating IoT TSS road mapping efforts.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Matteo Landoni, dt ogilvie〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉This paper contributes to an understanding of the evolution of the space industry and the role innovation policy and industrial change have played in that process. It looks at the impact of business-government interactions on the emerging space industry and how it evolved from the consolidation of aerospace businesses to the government creating national agencies to support the industry (through the use of innovation policy instruments) at the same time that privatization of the aerospace businesses occurred.〈/p〉 〈p〉We conducted a comparative case study of the aerospace industry in three European countries—France, Italy, and the United Kingdom (the U.K.)—that explores the governments' strategies to develop the emerging space industry. These strategies comprise a mix of innovation instruments, including the establishment of government agencies with the mission of supporting the space industry. The space agencies in each country had a common design that enabled the businesses to become global players in the industry.〈/p〉 〈p〉There is a link between the design of innovation policy mixes and the emerging model of European decentralized governance. This paper contributes to the literature by suggesting that government agencies are instruments of innovation policy for developing innovative industries.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Klas Eriksson, Mirko Ernkvist, Christofer Laurell, Jerker Moodysson, Rasmus Nykvist, Christian Sandström〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉What is the role of innovation policy for accomplishing renewal of mature industries in Western economies? Drawing upon an unusually rich dataset spanning 9752 digitized archival documents, we categorize and code decisions taken by policymakers on several levels while also mapping and quantifying the strategic activities of both entrant firms and incumbent monopolists over a decade. Our data concerns two empirical cases from Sweden during the time period 1980–1990: the financial sector and the telecommunications sector. In both industries, a combination of technological and institutional upheaval came into motion during this time period which in turn fueled the revitalization of the Swedish economy in the subsequent decades. Our findings show that Swedish policymakers in both cases consistently acted in order to promote the emergence of more competition and de novo entrant firms at the expense of established monopolies. The paper quantifies and documents this process while also highlighting several enabling conditions. In conclusion, the results indicate that successful innovation policy in mature economies is largely a matter of strategically dealing with resourceful vested interest groups, alignment of expectations, and removing resistance to industrial renewal.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Alexander Sokolov, Sergey Shashnov, Maxim Kotsemir, Anna Grebenyuk〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉International cooperation in science, technology and innovation (STI) plays an increasingly significant role as it allows one to gain access to new knowledge, increase national competitiveness, jointly respond to Grand Challenges, and contribute to overall bilateral and multilateral political cooperation. International alliances aim to establish a win-win system of common STI priorities in order to coordinate their research efforts in a wider political context. Within such a system, individual countries have to use different policy instruments for achieving their own benefits via STI collaboration with foreign partners. The paper addresses the following research question: “How can quantitative analysis help better identify priorities for STI collaboration that provide additional benefits for a country participating in such work?”.〈/p〉 〈p〉A set of common STI priorities for BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has been identified based on the analysis of strategic, Foresight, and STI policy documents and expert consultations. It includes a number of STI areas with a wide range of practical applications. Additional quantitative analysis shows how an individual member country can build its cooperation strategy by selecting particular thematic areas and relevant instruments for STI collaboration.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 17 March 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Armando Papa, Monika Mital, Paola Pisano, Manlio Del Giudice〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉According to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal No. 3 (SDG – Goal 3), for sustainable development it is imperative to ensure health and well-being across all ages, and is achievable only through effective and continuous healthcare monitoring. But in India and other third world countries, healthcare monitoring is poor compared to other countries in the world, in spite of it being affordable. The global healthcare smart wearable healthcare (SWH) devices market is expected to rise up at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 5.6% and by 2020 it is expected to reach 25 Billion (GVR Report, 2016). The growing incidences of lifestyle diseases, sedentary lifestyle, busy work schedules, technological advancements in healthcare monitoring devices, and increased usage of remote devicesseems to be some of the important factors fuelling this growth. Some of the major players in this segment are Abbott Laboratories, Philips Healthcare, Life Watch, GE Healthcare, Omron Healthcare, Siemens Healthcare and Honeywell International Inc. etc. But in spite of the healthcare monitoring devices are being predicted to be technologically innovative and providing advanced as well as basic health care monitoring features and available in various price ranges based on the features, we wanted to empirically study the attitude towards adoption of such devices in India. India has traditionally been having a very lackadaisical attitude towards healthcare monitoring. In such a context, what would be the factors influencing the adoption of SWH devices. Remote health monitoring can enhance the nature of wellbeing administration and to lessen the aggregate expense in human services by maintaining a strategic distance from pointless hospitalizations and guaranteeing that the individuals who need critical consideration get it sooner. This empirical investigation would provide a detailed insight as to how these wearable Internet Of Things devices would bring about a revolution in the healthcare industry. It would also provide the future prospect of IOT devices in this sector and how the probability of increase in its usage can be increased with time. The paper explores intrusiveness (INTR), Comfort (C), perceived usefulness (PU) and perceived ease of use (EOU) of SWH devices. The study hypothesized the Impact of PU and EOU, INTR and C on attitude and intention to use towards adoption of SWH devices. Partial Least Square Structured Equation Modeling (PLS – SEM) methodology was applied to explore the relationships between the concepts and hypothesis. The data was collected from 273 respondents. The age group of the respondents was between 25 and 40 years. The results indicated that intrusiveness and comfort do not have a significant direct impact on Intention to use BI (Behavior Intention) BI SWH devices. At the same time Intrusiveness had a significant impact on PU of SWH devices and Comfort has a strong significant impact on PU and EOU of smart wearables. The research has strong implications in the current emerging context of smart wearables, their design and effectiveness. Also the research can have lasting implications on elderly health and well-being. There are very few empirical studies in the area of SWH devices. Most of the studies till now are conceptual studies or providing technology architectures and frameworks. The research in this area is still at a very nascent stage and very few studies have been done to explore the use and adoption of SWH devices.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Chih-Chun Kung, Xiaoyong Cao, Yongrok Choi, Shan-Shan Kung〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Agriculture is considered to be highly vulnerable to global climate change which has significant influences on regional temperature and precipitation, thereby altering crop yields, resource allocation, land-use patterns, distribution of cultivars, farmers' behavior, and social welfare. To understand how agricultural activities respond to climate change, therefore, it is necessary to investigate farmers' behavior in the face of climate-induced crop yield changes. We extend the deterministic agricultural sector model to a two-stage stochastic programming with recourse (SPR) model to evaluate the potential changes in cropland utilization and agro-economic measures under climate impacts in Taiwan. We show that when farmers are uncertain the risk, land use could alter considerably. In such cases, approximately 55% and 26% of corn land and peanut land, respectively, will be used to plant other crops. When changes in crop yield are certain, farmers can maintain their income at a cost of higher government expenditures on aside-land subsidy and rice repurchase program. Because yields of many crops present a positive response to climate change, in some cases the net social welfare might increase by NT$800 million dollars (after subtracting NT$5.2 billion dollars of government expenditure) or 0.2% of total agricultural production, and most of the benefits are captured by farmers. These issues, as well as policy implications such as wealth redistribution and resource allocation are discussed in detail.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Hyungsoo Lim, Duk Bin Jun, Mohsen Hamoudia〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This study proposes a model that enables us to investigate the multi-generation and the multi-country diffusion process simultaneously. Many former studies focus on only one of the dimensions since it is difficult to integrate both dimensions at the same time. Our proposed framework can explain both diffusion processes by capturing the common trend of multi-generation diffusion process and the country-specific heterogeneity. We develop the choice-based diffusion model by decomposing the choice probability of adoption into two components; the first component explains the individual country heterogeneity depending on the country-based variables while the second component captures the common trend of multi-generation diffusion process with the generation-based variables. We apply the model to 3G and 4G connections across 25 countries. Empirical result shows that it is not easy to use individual country level model for most countries due to the lack of data points. Our pooled model outperforms several individual country models according to the fitting and forecasting measures. We find that each country's market competitiveness and the market price affect the rate of diffusion and show that random effects of 3G and 4G are positively correlated. This framework provides the fine prediction capability even with few data points and valuable information for formulating policies on a new generation.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: January 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 138〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jae-Woong Min, Nicholas S. Vonortas, YoungJun Kim〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This study explores the factors that contribute to the commercialization of technologies transferred from universities and public research institutes (U&PRIs) to companies. We take a step further than the established literature focusing on technology transfer to examine factors that also affect the chances of the successful commercialization of the transferred technologies through an empirical analysis of 669 technology transfer cases in Korea. The study shows that the intensity of market competition is a key factor in moderating the effects of partnership and absorptive capacity on the successful commercialization of transferred technologies. While collaboration with U&PRIs exerts a positive effect on commercialization success, this effect is weakened by the intensity of market competition. The intensity of market competition boosts the importance of company absorptive capacity for the commercialization success of the transferred technology. We conclude that strategic management of the absorptive capacities of companies and their partnership with U&PRIs are necessary ingredients of the success of technology transfer in concordance with the intensity of competition that the company faces in the market.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 141〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Mabel Sánchez-Barrioluengo, Paul Benneworth〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉There is an increasing interest in the analysis of how universities should maximise their specific regional contribution alongside their traditional teaching and research goals. However, due to the institutional heterogeneity it is necessary to understand the process by which universities create regional benefits, specifically through their third mission outputs. To cover this gap, this paper investigates the extent to which internal institutional configurations affect the production of these benefits on the UK Higher Education sector. It focuses on four elements of the universities' structural configuration (〈em〉steering core, administrative machinery, internal coupling〈/em〉 and 〈em〉academic heartland)〈/em〉 in different university models: the entrepreneurial university and the (regional) engaged university model.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 30 October 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Sonal Choudhary, Rakesh Nayak, Sushma Kumari, Homagni Choudhury〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Drawing on theories of acculturation and information diffusion, this paper examines whether social media usage, intergroup contacts and information dissemination influence the cultural adaptation of three ethnic groups, and its implications on sustainable consumption behaviour. Twenty-four semi-structured interviews containing multiple dimensions of social media uses, acculturation, food consumption behaviour, and information diffusion were administered to a sample of Indians (living in the home country), British Indians (living in the host country for more than 10 years) and White British (natives of Britain) users of social media. Our findings suggest that there is a clear link between the integrated strategy of acculturation and information diffusion on social media, which influences acculturation to sustainable food consumption behaviour among social media users. Managerial implications of this research finding are that intervention in information diffusion aids acculturation through the social media, which serves to infuse social media and sustainability strategist with knowledge to best influence the consumers in developing sustainable food consumption behaviour. This research also identifies opportunities to expand this academic research and contribute further to the theories of remote acculturation on which limited research has been done.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 27 March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Sonal H. Singh, Bhaskar Bhowmick, Dale Eesley, Birud Sindhav〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Grassroots innovation is rapidly gaining research attention because of its crucial role in entrepreneurship development. Although entrepreneurial orientation holds the key for entrepreneurial success, research on how entrepreneurial orientation impacts the relationship between grassroots innovation (GRI) and entrepreneurial success is critical. This research is still in its infancy and has not adequately been addressed. This study endeavors to fill this gap while examining how the three factors of grassroots innovation such as new grassroots learning practices, local solution and networking capabilities influence entrepreneurial orientation enroute to affecting economic benefits and non-economic benefits from entrepreneurial activity. The study involved data from 400 grassroots innovators and a structural equation modeling approach was used to fit the data based on the aforementioned factors and components. The study reveals that entrepreneurial orientation is observed to fully mediate the relationship between the following three linear dependencies: new grassroots learning practices and economic benefits, networking capabilities and economic benefits, and local solution and non-economic benefits. This study also found that entrepreneurial orientation partially mediates the relationship in the following cases: new grassroots learning practices and non-economic benefits, networking capabilities and non-economic benefits, and local solution and economic benefits. The results provide empirical evidence to support that entrepreneurial orientation spurred by grassroots innovation significantly influence entrepreneurial success in the Indian context.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 27 March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Léo-Paul Dana, Calin Gurău, Frank Hoy, Veland Ramadani, Todd Alexander〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Grassroots innovation projects have the potential to generate novel, bottom-up solutions that respond to local situations, interests and values – solving the social, economic and environmental problems of marginalized communities; however, these projects can raise important challenges during their design, testing, development and implementation. Although extant studies identify some of these problems, the literature and practice lack a comprehensive diagnostic tool that can effectively predict the potential and success of grassroots initiatives. For this reason, important problems are often neglected, and failed projects are not thoroughly investigated and analyzed, which leads to missed opportunities of corrective learning. This study addresses this knowledge gap, proposing a diagnostic tool based on existing theoretical frameworks, which is then validated by investigating a failed grassroots innovation initiative, in order to identify its major shortcomings, and learn to avoid them in future projects. The findings also outline the role and importance of a socially inclusive approach for an effective deployment of grassroots initiatives, clarifying the relationship between grassroots innovation success and local community involvement.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: January 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 138〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Patrik Söderholm, Hans Hellsmark, Johan Frishammar, Julia Hansson, Johanna Mossberg, Annica Sandström〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Despite the key role of actor networks in progressing new sustainable technologies, there is a shortage of conceptual knowledge on how policy can help strengthen collaborative practices in such networks. The objective of this paper is to analyze the roles of such policies – so-called network management – throughout the entire technological development processes. The analysis draws on the public management and sustainability transitions literatures, and discusses how various network characteristics could affect the development of sustainable technologies, including how different categories of network management strategies could be deployed to influence actor collaborations. The paper's main contribution is an analytical framework that addresses the changing roles of network management at the interface between various phases of the technological development process, illustrated with the empirical case of advanced biorefinery technology development in Sweden. Furthermore, the analysis also addresses some challenges that policy makers are likely to encounter when pursuing network management strategies, and identifies a number of negative consequences of ignoring such instruments in the innovation policy mix. The latter include inefficient actor role-taking, the emergence of small, ineffective and competing actor networks in similar technological fields, and a shortage of interpretative knowledge.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 14 November 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Steven M. Miller〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Vanessa S. Tchamyou, Guido Erreygers, Danny Cassimon〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This study investigates the role of information and communication technology (ICT) on income inequality through financial development dynamics of depth (money supply and liquid liabilities), efficiency (at banking and financial system levels), activity (from banking and financial system perspectives) and size, in 48 African countries for the period 1996 to 2014. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments. While both financial depth and size are established to reduce inequality contingent on ICT, only the effect of financial depth in reducing inequality is robust to the inclusion of time invariant variables to the set of strictly exogenous variables. We extend the analysis by decomposing financial depth into its components, namely: formal, informal, semi-formal and non-formal financial sectors. The findings based on this extension show that ICT reduces income inequality through formal financial sector development and financial sector formalization as opposed to informal financial sector development and financial sector informalization. The study contributes at the same time to the macroeconomic literature on measuring financial development and responds to the growing field of addressing post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) inequality challenges by means of ICT and financial access.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jermain Kaminski, Christian Hopp, Tereza Tykvová〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Crowdfunding is a relatively new gateway for entrepreneurs to access capital for creative and innovative ideas. It allows individuals to start experiments with new products and technologies where the outcome is distant. Yet predicting the success of hitherto unseen products and technologies is fraught with ambiguity and uncertainty. Early stage product experimentation and market access through reward-based crowdfunding, where potential customers provide funds for new unproven products, can therefore provide quality signals to subsequent financiers of new technologies. Our study investigates whether there is a long-run relationship between crowdfunding and VC investments on the aggregate and the industry level. We draw on a dataset covering 77,654 projects that successfully raised funds on Kickstarter and 3260 VC investments in the US between 2012 and 2017. The results suggest that crowdfunding Granger causes VC investments. Moreover, the monthly crowdfunding and VC investment time series are cointegrated. We therefore conclude that successful crowdfunding campaigns lead to a subsequent increase in VC investments. This holds at the aggregate level and particularly for hardware and consumer electronics, as well as fashion. These results enhance our understanding of the co-development between crowdfunding and VC investments. Reward-based crowdfunding helps VC investors in assessing future trends rather than crowding them out of the market.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Edurne A. Inigo, Laura Albareda〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In this article, we build on dynamic capabilities theory to explore the organizational dynamics for sustainability-oriented innovation (SOI). We carried out a multiple case study of seven leading companies fostering SOI, searching for common patterns in their adaptation. We found three different levels of dynamic capabilities (adapting, expanding, and transforming) interconnected to strategic sustainability dimensions. We thus propose an evolving framework that explains how the generative variation of innovative change and adaption follow two interconnected logics that explain the SOI dynamics. First, we study the time-evolving transformation that encourages companies to transform dynamic capabilities following a path-dependent logic. Second, we study organizational transformations that enhance self-reinforcement among strategic sustainability dimensions. This conceptualization contributes to the theoretical underpinnings of SOI, providing new insights on how SOI transforms dynamic capabilities for innovation and adapts companies' strategic sustainability.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 11 December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jiang Yu, Yating Wen, Jing Jin, Yue Zhang〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Providing, integrating and improving efficient public service in the construction of ‘smart cities’ in metropolitan areas have been showed to be difficult to achieve. In this article, we propose a strategy for developing service-dominant platforms with the advancement of ICT and more internet enterprises initiatives. We use the concept of SDP (service dominant platform) as a key contributor in a smart city's construction to explain how value can be co-created during the formation and evolution of the platform. Drawing on case materials from a Business-oriented platform named WeChat in Guangzhou and a government-oriented one in Shanghai, an analytic framework on platform and service innovation-relevant theories are built around the dynamic cyclical value co-creation, and three elements are identified in this process defined as value proposition, value in exchange and value in use, which consist of ten sub-elements on different SDPs along four dimensions, namely openness, services innovation, governance and resource. The study makes three contributions. First, it provides new evidence that pursuing smart city construction is not a mere technological architecture but a value co-creation oriented strategy. While facing persistent problems, China's paths exhibit significant and rapidly improving readiness for it. Second, the study provides new insights into, by positively bridging the linkage between platform governance and service innovation and proposing the service dominant platform (SDP) as a clear sustainable strategy. Finally, the study proposes two different resources-based models for guiding smart city initiatives in developing countries. By providing theoretical concepts to support public service innovation, identifying some implications for smart city developed in emerging countries, and suggesting some operational approaches to co-creating value against the local context, this paper has made a meaningful theoretical and practical significance about smart city.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Lado Kurdgelashvili, Cheng-Hao Shih, Fan Yang, Mehul Garg〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉To understand long term PV deployment, it is important to explore the underlying mechanisms that drive PV market diffusion. This paper examines the relationships between several social and economic factors and residential PV market diffusion on a county level. The Bass diffusion model was used to estimate diffusion parameters for 46 counties in California. Regression analysis was then applied to find associations between these parameters and several socio-demographic, economic, and political variables in each county. Finally, a Generalized Bass Model was employed to explore the price effect on PV diffusion. We have found supporting evidence of the inverse relationship between attainment of higher education and the coefficient of imitation. We have clearly shown evidence for heterogeneity between counties in one or more of our observed dimensions, or unobserved and possibly confounding factors. Although not significant at the conventional 5% and 10% levels, our Generalized Bass Model nonetheless supports the presence of price-based fluctuations in adoption rates.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yuki Inoue, Masaharu Tsujimoto〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 141〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Gabriel Axel Montes, Ben Goertzel〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The accelerating investment in artificial intelligence has vast implications for economic and cognitive development globally. However, AI is currently dominated by an oligopoly of centralized mega-corporations, who focus on the interests of their stakeholders. There is a now universal need for AI services by businesses who lack access to capital to develop their own AI services, and independent AI developers lack visibility and a source of revenue. This uneven playing field has a high potential to lead to inequitable circumstances with negative implications for humanity. Furthermore, the potential of AI is hindered by the lack of interoperability standards. The authors herein propose an alternative path for the development of AI: a distributed, decentralized, and democratized market for AIs run on distributed ledger technology. We describe the features and ethical advantages of such a system using SingularityNET, a watershed project being developed by Ben Goertzel and colleagues, as a case study. We argue that decentralizing AI opens the doors for a more equitable development of AI and AGI. It will also create the infrastructure for coordinated action between AIs that will significantly facilitate the evolution of AI into true AGI that is both highly capable and beneficial for humanity and beyond.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: January 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 138〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): 〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Francisco Liébana-Cabanillas, Sebastian Molinillo, Miguel Ruiz-Montañez〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉There is growing interest in our society in making payments using mobile phones as an alternative to using cash, checks or credit cards. The objective of this study is to analyze the status of Near Field Communication (NFC) mobile payment systems in public transportation, as well as the factors that affect users' intentions to continue using said systems. To meet this objective, a personal survey was conducted on a sample of 180 users with experience using this type of system. A comprehensive review of the scientific literature justifies the development of a behavioral model that explains the continuance intention of NFC mobile payments through a structural equation model. The results show that satisfaction, service quality, effort expectancy, and perceived risk are determining factors of the continuance intention to use this technology. Finally, the managerial conclusions and implications offer the companies that manage these public services new business opportunities based on user behaviors.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Barbara Ribeiro, Philip Shapira〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper advances an anticipatory governance framework to investigate and prepare for the potential implications of an emerging technology. Within the growing domain of synthetic biology, we draw on an end-to-end assessment of biosynthetic menthol that incorporates consideration of multiple dimensions of production and use. Based on documentary analysis, available data, and interviews, our approach unfolds in three steps. First, we map the sociotechnical transition in menthol production, comparing existing agricultural and chemical production methods with new biosynthetic processes – or what we call the biological (bio) turn. Second, we explore the rationales, promises and expectations of menthol's bio-turn and explore the drivers of transition so as to clarify which goals and values innovation is addressing. Third, we reflect on the opportunities and challenges of such a transition to put forward an agenda for responsible innovation and anticipatory governance. The bio-turn in menthol is analysed through five responsible innovation dimensions: the potential distribution of benefits and burdens; social resilience; environmental sustainability; infrastructure and business models; and public perception and public interest. We consider the implications of our analysis both for the responsible development and application of synthetic biology for menthol and for the broader assessment and sociotechnical construction of emerging technologies.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Rinie van Est〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper aims to clarify the political nature of parliamentary technology assessment (PTA) by reflecting on PTA's relationship with democratic policy making. This issue is raised in a political climate that is regularly portrayed as a ‘post-truth era’ and influenced by the rise of radical right populism. Democratic policy making is described in terms of problem structuring that depends on powering, scientific puzzling, participation and deliberation. Regulative democratic ideals, like political equality, truth, citizen participation, and ideal communication, are identified that drive these processes. These concepts are used to clarify the political nature of PTA in two ways. First the kind of political support for PTA within countries where PTA is or was institutionalized is explored. A typology of seven levels of political support to PTA is discerned. These degrees of support depend on whether PTA is performed by MPs or by TA experts, and to what extent MPs allow PTA to play a role in the scientific puzzling process and/or organize participation-cum-deliberation processes. To further clarify the political nature of PTA, three political attitudes towards the regulative democratic ideals are distinguished: affirmative, indifferent, and adverse. It is shown that processes of powering, scientific puzzling and participation-cum-deliberation can be used in ways that are guided by regulative democratic ideals (affirmative), ignore those ideals (indifferent) or undermine them (adverse). In political contexts in which indifferent or adverse attitudes prevail political support for PTA of any kind is very unlikely. It is argued that PTA can strengthen democratic policy making, when it fully acknowledges the political nature, and strengths and weaknesses of both scientific puzzling and participation-cum-deliberation. In this way PTA can connect to democratic forms of populism, and is well-positioned to counteract anti-scientism, anti-intellectualism, and anti-democratic forms of populism.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 141〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Nuno Bento, Gianfranco Gianfrate, Sara Virginia Groppo〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The growing literature on crowdfunding has mostly focused on the determinants of campaigns success, as well as on the legal and macroeconomic drivers of the crowdfunding diffusion as a mean to finance innovative projects. Still there are scant evidences on whether the returns for crowdfunders are consistent with the risk profile of crowdfunded projects. By studying 365 European clean-tech projects which raised capital via crowdfunding, we show that once the country risk has been accounted for, the returns are not consistent with the risks related to the technology adopted by the projects. Behavioral factors like bounded rationality or the cultural dimension of investors may explain this apparent mispricing of risks. While projects' returns are, on average, negatively related to risks, we find that projects offering better risk-adjusted returns attract relatively larger average contributions. Our results have important implications for understanding the drivers of crowdfunding returns and its sustainability, and particularly for its diffusion as an instrument to foster the transition to a low-carbon economy.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 21 July 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Lorenzo Ardito, Alberto Ferraris, Antonio Messeni Petruzzelli, Stefano Bresciani, Manlio Del Giudice〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The development of smart cities is becoming more and more based on knowledge management (KM) frameworks. This leads to new managerial challenges, which reflect the complexity of KM governance and processes issues of smart city projects as well as the need to manage knowledge that originates both within and beyond projects' boundaries. However, in-depth research on the development of smart cities from a managerial and KM perspective has remained scant. In detail, although universities are deemed to be responsible for the competitiveness and superiority of knowledge-based ecosystems, like smart city projects, the different roles they play in such projects when dealing with KM governance and processes issues are still understudied. Therefore, by conducting an exploratory case study of 20 smart city projects, this paper aims to scrutinize how universities manage the KM governance issue when internal knowledge is used, the KM governance issue when external knowledge is used, the KM processes issue when internal knowledge is used, and the KM processes issue when external knowledge is used. Results reveal that universities act as knowledge intermediaries, knowledge gatekeepers, knowledge providers, and knowledge evaluators.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jia Xu, Xiujie Tan, Gang He, Yu Liu〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Excessive price fluctuations would affect the effectiveness of Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and low-carbon investment. Therefore, the drivers of carbon prices need to be disentangled to analyze the price formation process, which is important for both policy makers and investors. By applying the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method, we decompose the historical carbon price data of the five ETS pilots in China into five groups of the independent Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) sequences and the residue, respectively. Then, the IMFs and the residue in each pilot are reconstructed into a high frequency component, a low frequency component and a trend component, thus disentangling the effects of short-term market fluctuations, significant events, and the long-term trend. The main findings are as follows. First, the IMF with a period around one year is the most influential factor, which reflects that pilots are characterized by the yearly cycle. Second, significant events have greater impacts than short-term market fluctuations, and are the dominant driver in Shanghai and Beijing pilots. Third, the long-term trend plays a decisive role in Shenzhen, Guangdong and Hubei pilots. The price stabilization mechanism is critical to avoid a severe imbalance between demand and supply in the long run.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Gloria Rose, André Gazsó〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉New and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology and advanced materials are characterized by manifold areas of application and high uncertainty, making the anticipation of effects difficult. Since 2007, the Austrian technology assessment project “NanoTrust” is dedicated to assisting policy-makers in issues surrounding the safety of nanotechnology applications. The choice was made early on to build and maintain a governance network and to take a more active role in contributing to pre-emptive risk management and the initiation of new processes. Characterized by a dominant risk frame and a broad scope, the Austrian nanotechnology discourse places a distinct focus on scientific expertise and strong interdisciplinary efforts. Ten years into the project, the Austrian nano governance network has shown signs of undergoing an institutionalisation process and we reflect on how we have sought to maintain our neutrality and independence as TA practitioners. This exercise in reflection seeks to gain insights on the strategies employed in practice when shaping technologies at stages of high uncertainty and engaging closely with actors in governance networks over longer periods of time.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Anja Bauer, Karen Kastenhofer〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉Over past decades, the notion of policy advice in technology assessment (TA) has widened, going beyond traditional advice in the form of expert opinions by adding a broad range of brokerage activities. Concomitantly, the roles of scientific policy advisors have diversified.〈/p〉 〈p〉Based on an empirical study of advisory practices at the Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA) at the Austrian Academy of Sciences, we ask which advisory roles TA practitioners adopt. Our study shows that practitioners take up multiple roles: the decisionist advisor, the deliberative practitioner, the governance facilitator, the engaged academic, and the agenda-setter. These roles vary, inter alia, in the dominant modes of policy advice and the aspired function in politics and society and correlate with specific project and advisory constellations but also with paradigmatic beliefs of TA practitioners. Our analysis further exemplifies how these roles differ in a) the reference to and interpretation of core principles such as scientificity, neutrality and relevance and b) their strategies of managing the boundary between science and politics. Thus, the article goes beyond the mere statement “TA has politics” by illustrating how the politics of TA manifests in distinct ways in different roles of TA practitioners in policy advice.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 22 December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Francesco Paolo Appio, Marcos Lima, Sotirios Paroutis〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Smart Cities initiatives are spreading all around the globe at a phenomenal pace. Their bold ambition is to increase the competitiveness of local communities through innovation while increasing the quality of life for its citizens through better public services and a cleaner environment. Prior research has shown contrasting views and a multitude of dimensions and approaches to look at this phenomenon. In spite of the fact that this can stimulate the debate, it lacks a systematic assessment and an integrative view. The papers in the special issue on “Understanding Smart Cities: Innovation Ecosystems, Technological Advancements, and Societal Challenges” take stock of past work and provide new insights through the lenses of a hybrid framework. Moving from these premises, we offer an overview of the topic by featuring possible linkages and thematic clusters. Then, we sketch a novel research agenda for scholars, practitioners, and policy makers who wish to engage in – and build – a critical, constructive, and conducive discourse on Smart Cities.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Cameron Roberts, Frank W. Geels〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This article investigates the conditions under which policymakers are likely to decisively accelerate socio-technical transitions. We develop a conceptual framework that combines insights from historical institutionalism and the Multi-Level Perspective to better understand the political dimension in transitions, focusing particularly on the mechanisms of political 〈em〉defection〈/em〉 from incumbent regime to niche-innovation. We distinguish two ideal-type patterns, one where external (landscape) shocks create a ‘critical juncture’ and one where gradual feedbacks change the balance of power between niche-innovation and regime. We also identify more proximate conditions such as external pressures on policymakers (from business interests, mass publics, and technologies) and policy-internal developments (changes in problem definitions and access to institutional arrangements). We apply this framework to two historical case studies in which UK policymakers deliberately accelerated transitions: the transition from rail to road transport (1920–1970); and the transition from traditional mixed agriculture to specialised wheat agriculture (1920–1970). We analyse the conditions for major policy change in each case and draw more general conclusions. We also discuss implications for contemporary low-carbon transitions, observing that while some favourable conditions are in place, they do not yet meet all the prerequisites for political acceleration.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Veland Ramadani, Robert D. Hisrich, Hyrije Abazi-Alili, Léo-Paul Dana, Laxman Panthi, Lejla Abazi-Bexheti〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Using Business Environment Enterprise Performance Surveys (BEEPS), this paper provides a multistage empirical analysis of product innovation and firm performance in transition economies (TEs). The Crepon-Duguet-Mairesse (CDM) model, a four-stage approach, is used to investigate the innovation-performance relationship. The multistage model allows studying the innovation activities of firms through multi-interrelated factors while controlling the issue of simultaneity and causality. The paper contributes to the research in this area by estimating the effect of innovation on performance through multistage equation modeling. It fills the gap in providing an understanding of factors that influence on product innovation - firm performance relationship in transition economies. This research is among the first to use product-only innovation to measure the impact of innovation on firms' performance. Findings indicate that product innovation has a positive impact on firm performance in transition economies, complemented by significant impact of specific control variables such as size, total labor cost, capital of the firm. Whereas age and competition from the informal sector, have a negative and significant effect on performance.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 19 December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Brita Fladvad Nielsen, Daniela Baer, Carmel Lindkvist〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The planning of energy ambitious neighborhood pilots in Norway typically begin with the creation of holistic and socially ambitious visions based on extensive stakeholder collaboration, citizen insight generation and vision setting. However, as projects move from planning to implementation, the exploratory innovation methods are replaced by exploitative approaches. ‘The holistic vision and in particular, citizens’ described needs, fail to transfer into the implementation phase. This paper identifies four main challenges as to why this happens and link these to theory on ambidextrous organizations that need to exploit existing knowledge while reaching into the future with its rapidly changing goals and technological opportunities. Implementing stakeholders are familiar with exploitative tools, which build on earlier experience and capabilities of the selected implementing stakeholders, and the implementation stage leaves little time and resources for innovation on a lower hierarchical level. While extensive research on smart and integrated planning focus on ‘breaking down the silos’ meaning sectors and disciplines, our findings argue that the need to manage ambidextrous organizations and support both exploratory and exploitative innovation is equally important. An ambidextrous organization is one that has the ability to be efficient in its management of today's business while being adaptable for coping with the changing demand of tomorrow. We propose a model in which the organizational style and management style of innovative neighborhood pilots focus more on how to transfer knowledge and learn from the bottom-up and horizontally through management that foster both innovation models.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jean-Philippe Bootz, Philippe Durance, Régine Monti〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In this paper, we introduce the themes addressed and approaches used by contributors to this special issue. Firstly, we underline that KM is approaching a stage of maturity that requires continuing efforts to use theoretical and empirical investigation to question its future evolution, through a foresight reflection. In parallel, we show that the link between knowledge management and foresight is of long-standing concern. In the context of a knowledge-based economy, this connection has taken on a structuring dimension. Thus, the purpose of this TFSC special issue is two-fold. On the one hand, we seek to explore the impacts of foresight on knowledge management and to understand its cognitive dimensions. And, on the other hand, we cast a future-oriented eye on knowledge management both as a set of practices and a research field. Finally, we present an overview of the topics covered by the selected papers.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 27 December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Zhinan Wang, Alan L. Porter, Xuefeng Wang, Stephen Carley〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Technological Convergence (TC) reflects developmental processes that overlap different technological fields. It holds promise to yield outcomes that exceed the sum of its subparts. Measuring emergence for a TC environment can inform innovation management. This paper suggests a novel approach to identify Emergent Topics (ETopics) of the TC environment within a target technology domain using patent information. A non-TC environment is constructed as a comparison group. First, TC is operationalized as a co-classification of a given patent into multiple 4-digit IPC codes (≥2-IPC). We take a set of patents and parse those into three sub-datasets based on the number of IPC codes assigned 1-IPC (Non-TC), 2-IPC and ≥3-IPC. Second, a method is applied to identify emergent terms (ETs) and calculate emergence score for each term in each sub-dataset. Finally, we cluster those ETs using Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to generate a factor map with ETopics. A convergent domain – 3D printing – is selected to present the illustrative results. Results affirm that for 3D printing, emergent topics in TC patents are distinctly different from those in non-TC patents. The number of ETs in the TC environment is increasing annually.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Shih-Chih Chen, Chieh-Peng Lin〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉With the prevalence of Internet, social media has become an important means for online marketing events. Individuals and companies both create fan pages on online platforms and develop business opportunities using social media. While many past studies have investigated social media, few have mentioned the effects of social media marketing activities. This study proposed the effects of social media marketing activities on continuance intention, participation intention and purchase intention via the mediation of social identification, perceived value, and satisfaction. To empirically test the effects of social media marketing activities, this study conducted an online survey on 502 social media users for data analysis. The analytical results indicated that social media marketing activities indirectly affect satisfaction through social identification and perceived value. At the same time, social identification and perceived value directly affect satisfaction that then influences continuance intention, participation intention and purchase intention. Finally, the academic and management implications based on the empirical results of this study are provided as references for the improvement of social media marketing.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): 〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jianwei Dang, Byeongwoo Kang, Ke Ding〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Technical standards in the mobile communications industry have been developed from national to regional and from regional to global. In the current era, global standards in the industry have enabled the formation of a single global market. However, because standard essential patents (SEPs) are territorial given the nature of the patent system, they can function as an opportunity or a threat depending on whether or not they are protected in countries of interest. This paper investigates how W-CDMA and LTE SEPs are globally distributed. From the analysis, the current study discovers SEP owners' strategies, future opportunities, and threats in their international businesses.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jooyoung Kwak, Yue Zhang, Jiang Yu〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Although existing studies have connected the emergence and development of e-commerce with infrastructure, culture, and regulations, we approach technological and platform acceptance from the perspective of legitimacy building. In our study, legitimacy is categorized into market, relational, and social legitimacy, and the link between each type of legitimacy and acceptance is explored. We select the case of Alibaba and argue that Alibaba was especially competent in building legitimacy. Alibaba's continuous efforts to build legitimacy facilitated platform evolution despite its exposed weakness in intellectual property rights. These efforts rendered Alibaba as a de facto standard e-business model. This research suggests that any firm that wants market acceptance for its platform or e-commerce technology should focus more on building legitimacy among stakeholders than on anything else.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 13 December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Marine Tanguy, Vishal Kumar〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Contemporary research into future cities tends to focus on technology, architecture and infrastructure. However, this study highlights the importance of public art projects for our future cities. Very little empirical evidence and academic studies exist to determine whether or not public art is core to the life and demand of citizens. Using a hybrid 〈strong〉contingent valuation〈/strong〉 (CV) and 〈strong〉wellbeing valuation〈/strong〉 (WV) survey approach (Bakhshi et al., 2015), we collected data at two public art initiatives organised by MTArt Agency. 60% of our sample audience were willing to pay at least £5 for the implementation of more public art in their local area, with 84% willing to pay at least £2, and 84% of our sample said regular public art initiatives would increase their wellbeing. A binary logistic regression model was then used to measure the extent to which Londoners are willing to pay for public art and which factors influenced their decision. This paper evaluates the potential financial support and desire from citizens towards public art in their cities. We find evidence to suggest that Londoners are willing to pay for more public art in their local area and discover a range of explanatory variables which influenced their decisions. We hope to add to the existing academic research by demonstrating a core need from the audience towards public art, particularly, a willingness to pay for public art projects to become an integral part of their city experience. It is important to understand the economic value of public art initiatives within smart cities context because it will allow policy makers, urban planners and developers to implement such initiatives in the future. With this innovative multi-disciplinary approach, we hope to enable arts projects to engage wider demographics, obtain stronger financial support and become a more meaningful integration into our urban realm.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Hanwei Liang, Jingzheng Ren, Ruojue Lin, Yue Liu〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The development of alternative-fuel vehicles has been recognized as a promising way for emissions reduction from transportation. This study aims to develop a fuzzy group decision supporting framework for sustainability prioritization of alternative-fuel based vehicles. A criteria system which consists of thirteen evaluation criteria in environmental, economic, technological and social aspects was developed for sustainability assessment of alternative-fuel vehicles. The linear goal programming priority based Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process was employed to determine the weights of the evaluation criteria for sustainability assessment of alternative-fuel vehicles, and Fuzzy Group Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis which allows multiple groups of stakeholders to participate in the decision-making process for rating the alternative-fuel vehicles with respect to the evaluation criteria was developed for sustainability prioritization of alternative-fuel vehicles. Three alternative-fuel based vehicles including compressed natural gas based, liquid petroleum gas based, and biodiesel based vehicles were studied by the developed method, and the sustainability sequence of these three scenarios from the most sustainable to the least is biodiesel based vehicle, compressed natural gas based vehicle and liquid petroleum gas based vehicle, thus, China's administration should give the first priority to biodiesel based vehicle under the current context of China. The results were validated by the fuzzy TOPSIS method, and sensitivity analysis was also carried out to test the effects of the weights of the evaluation criteria on the sustainability order of the three alternative-fuel based vehicles.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yu Cui, Yamin Zhang, Jingjing Guo, Hao Hu, Hua Meng〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Based on upper echelon theory, this study investigates the relationship between the knowledge heterogeneity of top management teams and the financial performance of Chinese IT-listed companies. Moreover, we explore the moderating role of the ownership structure on the above relationship. The results indicate that overseas background heterogeneity, functional experience heterogeneity and financial performance are significantly and positively correlated, while academic background heterogeneity is significantly and negatively correlated with financial performance. However, the effects of management experience heterogeneity, financial background heterogeneity, and political background heterogeneity on financial performance are not significant. Moreover, ownership as a moderating variable improved the significance level among overseas background heterogeneity, functional experience heterogeneity and financial performance. Based on these findings, the implications for how to optimize the knowledge structure of top management teams are discussed.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 141〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Stefania Testa, Kristian Roed Nielsen, Marcel Bogers, Silvano Cincotti〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Crowdfunding presents many opportunities for moving towards a sustainable society, with specific interest for sustainable entrepreneurs and innovators. In order to examine the potential role of crowdfunding in this context, we position this Special Issue (SI) within the larger stream of sustainability transitions literature, and in particular in relation to one of the field's key frameworks, i.e. the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP). We argue that crowdfunding represents a novel socio-technical practice with the potential of upscaling and transforming financial and – potentially – sustainability regimes. This introductory article contains an overview of the articles, described by using the MLP typology. Some authors describe the role of crowdfunding in enabling user-producer and user-consumer interaction at an early stage; others focus on crowdfunding as a tool for user-legitimators and user-citizens. In terms of future research, the novelty of the phenomenon leaves a wide range of areas open for further research, with the current literature primarily focused on uncovering the antecedents of funding success and failure, something that is also apparent in this SI. To help the field move forward, we identify five areas as the most relevant for future research.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yuandong Gu, Hong Zhang, Wenli Zhou, Weiguo Zhong〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This study linked top executives' values to firm charitable donation behaviors. Based on a unique database which combined native place of chairmen of listed companies in China and provincial level regional culture data in China, we find that: firms with chairmen from provinces with stronger humane orientation and collectivism orientation will be more likely to donate, and the donation amount will be greater; while firms with chairmen from provinces with stronger assertiveness will be less likely to donate and the donation amount will be less. Further analysis indicates that top executives' hometown identity, which is the consistency between the chairman's native place and the listed company's registration place will significantly moderate the relationship between top executives' values and firm donation. The higher hometown identity of top executives, the positive correlations between collectivism and firm donation will be stronger, while the negative correlation between assertiveness and firm donation will be weaker. This paper has implications for upper echelons theory, research on top managers' value and firm social responsibility research.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Nooree Kim, Yuri Park, Daeho Lee〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉It is important to examine the factors whereby consumers adopt on-demand services, particularly the factors related to consumer safety, to obtain the sustainable growth of on-demand services. Because consumers face physical risks as they confront service providers in person when using these on-demand services, unlike with traditional online services. This paper analyzed the effect of the level of face-to-face interaction between consumer and service provider with the adoption of on-demand services using an extended technology acceptance model. The result shows that the effects of the factors including perceived safety on adoption of on-demand services was different according to the type of on-demand services classified by the level of face-to-face interaction.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Hidemichi Fujii, Shunsuke Managi〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Sustainable green technology is an important contributor to creating a sustainable society by simultaneously promoting environmental protection and economic development. This study examines the determinants of sustainable green technology invention in China, with a focus on the differences in green technology development priorities in each five-year plan period. This study uses patent publication data in a patent decomposition analysis framework. We find that sustainable green patent publications increased due to efficiency improvements, the prioritization of sustainable green patents, an increased R&D expenditure share and economic growth, especially during periods of gradual economic development in China. Additionally, we find that the relative priority of R&D shifted from renewable energy technology to pollution abatement and other sustainable green technology in the 12th five-year plan. The different R&D priority trends for sustainable green technologies among the five-year plans can be used to formulate effective policies that promote sustainable green technology invention.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Wentao Gu, Yiqing Peng〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Forecasting the direction of stock returns is an important topic in the literature, and it is, to some extent, predictable. In this paper, we consider a new directional forecasting model that applies and extends the time-varying probability density function theory that was proposed by Harvey and Oryshchenko (2012). We capitalize on the relationship between the second order upper partial moment and the directional forecasts, and construct an adjustment mechanism for the forecasting model, which is an original work to the best of our knowledge. The empirical work using data from the Chinese stock market shows that both our forecasting benchmark model and the adjustment mechanism have statistically and economically significant out-of-sample predictive abilities for directional forecasts. Furthermore, the adjustment mechanism provides a great improvement and outperforms the benchmark model in general, and the results of the binary forecasting model are also provided for comparison purposes.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): A.K.M. Najmul Islam, Matti Mäntymäki, Marja Turunen〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper investigates the focal actors in a blockchain network and their heterogeneity in splits. Disagreements in blockchain communities often lead to splits in both the blockchain and the community. We use three key elements of the actor-network theory — punctualization, translation, and actor heterogeneity—and employ case study methodology to examine Bitcoin splits. We identify several human actors, such as miners, developers, merchants, and investors, as well as non-human actors, including blockchain, exchanges, hardware manufacturers, and wallets, involved in Bitcoin splits. Our results show that the consolidation of actors in homogeneous groups plays a key role in blockchain splits. We further describe how the human and non-human actors' fluid moves into micro and macro actor positions in the network affect the development of the split. In addition, we discuss the roles of these actors and their engagement in forming micro and macro agencies in blockchain splits.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Shuying Li, Edwin Garces, Tugrul Daim〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉During the last years, new technologies have been developing at a rapid pace; however, new technologies carry risks and uncertainties. Technology forecasting by analogy has been used in the case of emerging technologies; nevertheless, the use of analogies is subject to several problems such as lack of inherent necessity, historical uniqueness, historically conditioned awareness, and casual analogies. Additionally, the natural process of selecting the analogy technology is based on subjective criteria for technological similarities or inductive inference. Since many analogies are taken qualitatively and rely on subjective assessments, this paper presents a quantitative comparison process based on the Social Network Analysis (SNA) and patent analysis for selecting analogous technologies. In this context, the paper presents an analysis of complex patent network structures using centrality and density metrics in order to reduce the lack of information or the presence of uncertainties. The case of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) is explored in this paper, comparing three candidate technologies which have been chosen based on the similarities with the target technologies. The best candidate technology is selected based on the analysis of two main centrality metrics (average degree and density).〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Mingzhi Hu, Yinxin Su, Wenping Ye〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Housing prices have been soaring in China since the past decade. Rising housing prices indicate good opportunities in the labor and housing markets, which can discourage the entrepreneurial investment decisions of would-be entrepreneurs. However, high appreciation in housing prices can also relax credit constraints in setting up nascent businesses and thereby encourage entrepreneurship. This study investigates whether rising housing prices have a pulling or pushing effect on entrepreneurial activities. We find that housing price has a diminishingly negative effect on entrepreneurial activities using data from China's Urban Household Survey and China Statistical Yearbook for Regional Economy for the period 2002–2009. The mechanisms underlying why housing price affects entrepreneurship—labor market opportunities, relaxation of credit constraints, and housing market opportunities—are also investigated. Overall, this study offers new insights into entrepreneurial activities and highlights the negative externalities of overheated housing market to entrepreneurship in developing countries.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Gupeng Zhang, Xiao Wang, Hongbo Duan〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In R&D activity that is more dependent upon innovative ideas, does culture still play a significant role in determining the impact of leader-member relationship on R&D employees' innovation performance? Prior studies mostly examined the cultural influence in a general sense, but studies making a cross-cultural comparison especially in divergent work settings are rare. This study thus contributes to existing literatures by empirically testing the culturally implicit leadership theory in R&D activity with the patent co-inventing data of 51 Chinese and American firms. We find that compared with those in American firms, new R&D employees who act as subordinates in Chinese firms have stronger initiatives to collaborate with dominant R&D performers who act as leaders, while new R&D employees in American firms appear to be more indifferent to this relationship, even if they are aware that an earlier collaboration with dominant R&D performers is beneficial. In Chinese cultural context that is characterized by hierarchy and collectivism, this collaboration plays an inverted parabolic role in determining the new R&D employees' innovation performance from both quantitative and qualitative aspects. By comparison, this impact is not significant in American culture that is distinguished by democracy and individualism. Policy implications based on the Chinese cultural context are given at the end of this study.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, Stefano Manzocchi, Valentina Meliciani〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper investigates the role of knowledge-based capital for participation and value appropriation in global value chains (GVC) for a sample of European countries over 1995–2011. We distinguish between different forms of participation in GVC entailing a different degree of capability to create value added domestically and examine how different intangible assets contribute to countries' engagement and value appropriation in GVC. We find that knowledge-based capital is positively correlated with participation and value appropriation along the value chain. This finding is robust to introducing separately R&D and non-R&D intangibles. In particular, training and organizational capital have the largest positive effect on value appropriation [JEL Classification: F23, O30].〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yongyoon Suh, Chulwan Woo, Jinhwan Koh, Jeonghwan Jeon〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Recently, there has been an increase in the university-industry cooperation to achieve harmonious development under the paradigm of open innovation. The government is engaging in various activities to promote successful university–industry cooperation efforts. Accordingly, relevant studies on the achievement of university–industry cooperation activities have been performed by many academic researchers. However, the satisfaction levels among university–industry cooperation program participants are insufficient. Moreover, studies on satisfaction with university–industry cooperation are also inadequate. Therefore, this research aims to propose a framework to analyse satisfaction with university–industry cooperation programs. The satisfaction index, dissatisfaction index, and potential customer satisfaction improvement (PCSI) index scores of the main efforts in university–industry cooperation are derived based on the Kano model. Portfolio analysis is performed to classify these main efforts into four categories and to analyse their characteristics. This study is expected to help improve satisfaction with university–industry cooperation by deriving guidelines for these types of initiatives.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: January 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 150〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Giacomo Büchi, Monica Cugno, Rebecca Castagnoli〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Existing literature on the Industry 4.0 concept does not empirically verify if, how, and for which types of firms, a greater openness to enabling technologies of Industry 4.0 provides further opportunities. This study analyzes the causal relationship between this degree of openness and performance, with an empirical analysis based on a sample representing local manufacturing units. Performance is measured by the extent of opportunities businesses obtain. The degree of openness is investigated using two indicators: breadth, or the number of technologies used; and depth, or the number of value chain stages involved. The regression models demonstrate that: (1) breadth and (2) depth of Industry 4.0 allow greater opportunities, and (3) micro-level local units achieve best performances. Verifying the opportunities for companies with Industry 4.0 is extremely relevant, as investments in Industry 4.0 are high in terms of costs, the acquisition of new skills, and the risks of obsolescence to enable better strategic decisions. This work also provides a scope for future analyses of this topic conducted on panel data. Despite the limited application of Industry 4.0, this study's results can encourage managers and policy-makers to implement a wider range of enabling technologies in the various stages of the value chain.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 151〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Stefano Magistretti, Claudio Dell'Era, Roberto Verganti〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Today's world is characterized by a continuous evolution in the demand and supply of new technology solutions, challenging the way companies pursue and manage technology development. Indeed, companies can no longer take decades to develop new technologies, but are compelled to deliver technologies in a short space of time. Despite the ample literature on the different technology development processes, the main factors influencing the creation of technological solutions remain unclear. The problem is no longer identifying a new process for developing a technology, but understanding which elements can guide the selection of the best approach for the situation faced. The aim of this study is therefore to provide a systematic literature review of technology development studies to contribute to shed lights on how companies can develop technology to foster innovations in a society that is continuously evolving its technological needs. The analysis of 187 articles highlights that process, organization, and knowledge are the three key dimensions that influence every technology development process. Thus, two main dichotomies emerge (i) linear vs iterative on the process level, (ii) designing vs finding on the knowledge level. Accordingly, we propose a research agenda based on a framework mapping the four resulting approaches.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 152〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yu Cui, Hao Jiao, Jin Chen〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 151〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Seokbeom Kwon, Matej Drev〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉Defensive Patent Aggregators (DPA) are a new patent intermediary that aims to counter the threat of Patent Assertion Entities (PAEs) to technology practicing firms by preempting patents that can be utilized by PAEs. In this study, we investigate whether and to what extent DPAs are in competition with PAEs for patent aggregation.〈/p〉 〈p〉In our theoretical analysis, we develop a game theoretic model that illustrates the selection of patents for aggregation by DPAs and PAEs, and derive four testable hypotheses regarding differences between the DPAs and PAEs aggregated patents. The model shows that DPAs are unlikely to be in complete competition with PAEs for patent aggregation and there are systematic differences in the characteristics of patents acquired by PAEs and DPAs. Our empirical analysis using U.S. patents aggregated by large PAEs and DPAs from 2008 to 2014 presents corroborating evidence for our hypotheses. Our findings imply that DPAs' patent preemption business model alone may not be sufficient to mitigate the threat of PAEs for technology firms, and point to the important role of public policy intervention. We discuss implications for technology firms and policymakers who seek to establish state-run DPAs.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 151〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Reilly White, Yorgos Marinakis, Nazrul Islam, Steven Walsh〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have fascinated technologists and investors alike. They have become prevalent, with over 2,000 Bitcoin-like cryptocurrencies now in use. Most jurisdictions have not regulated cryptocurrencies. Whether existing regulations apply to cryptocurrency turns ultimately on if we classify cryptocurrencies as currencies, securities, or derivatives, or a money services (transfer) vehicle. In this set of exploratory analyses we seek to classify Bitcoin. We utilize a variety of methods to compare aspects of its behavior to: currencies, asset classes such as derivatives, technology-based products and possible technology-based products such as Ether and the security SPY, and speculative financial bubbles. We find that Bitcoin's behavior more closely resembles a technology-based product, an emerging asset class, or a bubble event, rather than a currency or a security; such that it is correct that existing currency and security laws should not apply to cryptocurrencies.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 151〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Zhenbing Yang, Shuai Shao, Chengyu Li, Lili Yang〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Although China's technological strength has improved, the country's innovation inefficiency caused by research & development (R&D) resource misallocation should be addressed. Using the heterogeneous stochastic frontier approach and the panel data of China's 28 manufacturing sectors from 2001 to 2015, this paper estimates innovative technical efficiency, the output elasticity of R&D inputs, the factor-biased indicators of technological innovation, and the elasticity of substitution between R&D inputs. Ways to alleviate R&D resource misallocation are discussed based on these indicators. We find that the innovative technical efficiency of China's manufacturing sector is less than 1 and exhibits a markedly fluctuating trend, implying that R&D inputs are severely misallocated. The output elasticity of R&D capital experiences a continuously downward trend, while that of R&D personnel presents a stably upward trend. Overall, the technological innovation of China's manufacturing sector was biased to R&D personnel in the period of 2002–2013, and then presented a fluctuating change in the period of 2014–2015. R&D capital and R&D personnel exhibited a stable substitution relationship from 2008 to 2015. However, during the period of 2001–2007, the relationship between these two R&D inputs changed alternately. Finally, we provide some solutions to alleviate the misallocation of R&D resources for different sub-sectors according to the output elasticities of R&D inputs, the factor-biased level of technological innovation, and the substitution relationship between R&D inputs. Specifically, it is necessary to increase the input of R&D factor with a higher output elasticity by adjusting the factor-biased level of technological innovation.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 151〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yanhong Yuan, Jinyao Yang, Yang Li, Wei Li〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In order to eliminate profit loss caused by decentralized decision-making in closed-loop supply chain systems, this paper adopts the method of optimization analysis and game theory to analyze the necessary conditions for manufacturers, retailers and third-party online recyclers to achieve interest coordination under equilibrium conditions. In addition, the robustness of the results is verified by numerical analysis. The results show that in order to make the total profit of decentralized decision-making equivalent to that of centralized decision-making, the recycling cost of retailers and third-party recyclers must be the same; new products must be shipped at zero profit, re-manufactured products shall be sold at the difference between the residual value of the recovered product and the cost of recovery, and the manufacturer's recycling price shall be determined by the cost of recycling and residual value. It implies that multi-channel recycling must be carried out under the premise of uniform recycling costs. At the same time as the elimination of the product price increase, the manufacturer's income must be guaranteed through agreements and other forms. The government can realize the recovery price in the direction of benefiting consumers by improving the residual value of used products and easing channel competition.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 151〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Andrea Bonaccorsi, Riccardo Apreda, Gualtiero Fantoni〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉The paper addresses an issue largely discussed in the field of Forecasting and in many future-oriented scientific and professional disciplines, but less frequently considered in the Foresight literature, particularly in the technology foresight field- i.e. the extent to which biases of human experts influence the foresight process.〈/p〉 〈p〉The paper reviews the literature on cognitive biases and identifies the main areas of technology foresight in which biases are most likely to materialize. It offers a number of examples in which these biases may indeed create distortions. It also reviews the potential impact of several recently introduced methods, in the field of technology foresight and in related areas, to mitigate the distortions and calls for future research in this new field of investigation.〈/p〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 152〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Amarolinda Klein, Carsten Sørensen, Angilberto Sabino de Freitas, Cristiane Drebes Pedron, Silvia Elaluf-Calderwood〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Due to their scaling potential and complexity, digital platforms tend to generate public interest, and in some cases significant controversies and paradoxes. Previous research has generated knowledge about controversies in digital platform innovations. However, this work mainly focuses on the types of controversies and their effects rather than on the 〈em〉process〈/em〉 of controversy emergence. In this article, we analyze how controversies related to digital platform innovation emerge and how they unfold over the innovation process. We analyze the case of the Google Glass failure to establish this ARSG (Augmented Reality Smart Glasses) extension to Google's digital platform. The paper contributes to the study of controversies by analyzing the digital platform innovation process as a process of translation, in which there are possible controversy emergence points originated in types of disagreements among the different human actors involved and their interactions with non-human elements. These disagreements are related to specific features of digital platforms: the digital platform generativity, the multisided market arrangements in the platform; the loosely coupled layers of technologies and applications involved, and the opaqueness that results from these arrangements. The framework proposed can support digital platform scholars and practitioners to in better understand and manage controversies.〈/p〉〈/div〉