ALBERT

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 5 July 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Sorin M.S. Krammer, Alfredo Jiménez〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉We posit that the investments in political connections made by a firm in an emerging market will impact differently its propensity to introduce radical and incremental innovations. In addition, we argue that this effect will be moderated by alternate non-market firm strategies, such as bribery. Using a dataset of more than 9000 firms in 30 emerging economies from Eastern Europe and Central Asia we find that political connections increase the probability of radical innovation but have no significant impact on incremental innovation. Moreover, larger bribing reduces the positive impact of political connections on radical innovation. Our results confirm the importance of political connections for firm activities, but also caution firms on their heterogeneous impact on various types of innovations, and their detrimental interplay with other non-market strategies.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 10 April 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): John Rice, Nigel Martin〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Smart Information and Communications Technology (ICT) is envisaged to provide the capabilities to plan, design, construct, operate and manage Australia's key infrastructure. With over 75% of Australia's population living in cities and accessing public and private goods and services, ICT is positioned as a strategic resource for smart infrastructure developments. In this study, international and domestic stakeholder inputs on the future role of smart ICT in advancing Australia's infrastructure development and operations were crowdsourced for analysis. The study identifies several forms of smart ICT (e.g. building information modelling software) enabled infrastructure that possesses potential to deliver over A$9 billion per annum in domestic economic improvements, with commensurate advancement of communities, regions and urban environments. However, to be effective these smart ICT require enablement through open and interoperable data, sound governance and policy, and government leadership and coordination using dedicated resources. While smart infrastructure development is presently slow and lumbering, the identified smart ICT present as valuable strategic technologies for change and development in domestic communities.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 24 April 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Rahat Iqbal, Faiyaz Doctor, Brian More, Shahid Mahmud, Usman Yousuf〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Big Data has significant impact in developing functional smart cities and supporting modern societies. In this paper, we investigate the importance of Big Data in modern life and economy, and discuss challenges arising from Big Data utilization. Different computational intelligence techniques have been considered as tools for Big Data analytics. We also explore the powerful combination of Big Data and Computational Intelligence (CI) and identify a number of areas, where novel applications in real world smart city problems can be developed by utilizing these powerful tools and techniques. We present a case study for intelligent transportation in the context of a smart city, and a novel data modelling methodology based on a biologically inspired universal generative modelling approach called Hierarchical Spatial-Temporal State Machine (HSTSM). We further discuss various implications of policy, protection, valuation and commercialization related to Big Data, its applications and deployment.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 12 April 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): F.W. Geels, A. McMeekin, B. Pfluger〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Social acceptance and political feasibility are important issues in low-carbon transitions. Since computer models struggle to address these issues, the paper advances socio-technical scenarios as a novel methodological tool. Contributing to recent dialogue approaches, we develop an eight-step methodological procedure that produces socio-technical scenarios through various interactions between the multi-level perspective and computer models. As a specific contribution, we propose ‘transition bottlenecks’ as a methodological aid to mediate dialogue between qualitative MLP-based analysis of 〈em〉contemporary〈/em〉 dynamics and quantitative, model-generated 〈em〉future〈/em〉 pathways. The transition bottlenecks also guide the articulation of socio-technical storylines that suggest how the social acceptance and political feasibility of particular low-carbon innovations can be improved through social interactions and endogenous changes in discourses, preferences, support coalitions and policies. Drawing on results from the 3-year PATHWAYS project, we demonstrate these contributions for the UK electricity system, developing two low-carbon transition pathways to 2050 commensurate with the 2 °C target, one based on technological substitution (enacted by incumbent actors), and one based on broader system transformation (enacted by new entrants).〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Emrah Karakilic〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The transition from industrial capitalism to cognitive capitalism and the rise of the digital revolution have brought the subject of intellectual property rights to the forefront as a controversial issue. This paper holds that the theoretical apparatus and concepts belonging to the industrial phase of capitalism largely fall short with respect to the repercussions that intellectual property rights regime yields. Embracing the methodological precept that social theory must be moulded in order to address the contours of contemporary social reality, this paper engages in an autonomist Marxist update on the concept of intellectual property rights. It ultimately challenges the “intellectual property rights are a socio-economic need” thesis and speculatively argues that the current system of intellectual property rights, directed politically towards the enclosure of commons, constitutes a structural contradiction by i) forming a basis for a social crisis in terms of the established relations of production, and ii) curtailing a part of the socio-economic opportunities for innovation, profit-making, and growth.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 9 April 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Daniela Maresch, Johannes Gartner〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Disruptive technological change can contribute to a more abundant world. However, potentially disruptive technologies often struggle to significantly influence practice. One prominent example is additive manufacturing (AM). Although AM is often regarded as the next great technological revolution in waiting, it has not yet established itself on a large scale in many fields of application. We investigate the reasons behind those challenges by looking at the various fields in which AM is applied and relating them to the specific challenges AM faces, as well as the opportunities it offers in those fields. Our findings rely on a multi-perspective technology foresight process that is based on a discourse analytic approach and that comprises data tomography covering the biggest German-language online magazine on AM and qualitative interview data collected from a range of AM stakeholders. The findings provide an empirically well-founded evaluation and explanation of the link between the challenges and opportunities offered by AM and the extent to which this disruptive technology is leveraged in specific fields. The findings prompt recommendations on how new potentially disruptive technologies can foster abundance in traditional, well established market economies based on the example of the well-developed but traditional market economy of Austria.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 24 April 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Måns Nilsson, Adis Dzebo, Georgia Savvidou, Katarina Axelsson〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Quantitative models of transitions, such as energy systems models and integrated assessment models, do not usually represent social processes, institutions and politics. Their view of societal transitions, along with the governance required to drive them, is therefore limited. Socio-technical systems approaches, in contrast, represent the social side but lack a quantitative view of the future system. This paper addresses this by bridging an energy systems model with socio-technical systems analysis and a local action study, analysing the future transition of the residential heating system in Sweden. The paper focuses on demand-side shifts that would drive a transition to a highly efficient, low-carbon heating system until 2050. A conceptual framework for bridging three approaches is introduced and applied. For example, niche-innovations identified in the socio-technical study are implemented as scenario options in the model. Landscape signals are external drivers of the scenario, and the regime study identifies barriers and governance requirements. The local action study provides insights into community attitudes affecting niches and regime change. Our results indicate that the linking of approaches is meaningful, in that it provides an enriched understanding of future systems change in many dimensions. Further research is required using a variety of models on a variety of domains or sectors to draw more generalizable lessons about bridging modelling and social science-based approaches for transition studies.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 146〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Marco Capasso, Teis Hansen, Jonas Heiberg, Antje Klitkou, Markus Steen〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Governments in countries across the world increasingly adopt the “green growth” discourse to underline their ambition for the greening of their economies. The central tenet of this narrative is the economic opportunities rather than challenges arising from the pursuit of environmental sustainability. Our paper synthesises insights from 113 recent scientific articles, dealing with both environmental issues and economic growth, as well as innovation. Our ambition is exploratory in attempting to take stock of heterogeneous contributions across the spectrum of social science. The articles have been reviewed with a focus on six themes, derived from current discussions in economic geography and transition studies: skills, technology, physical resources, markets, institutions and policies. Four major implications emerge from the review. First, green growth requires competences that allow for handling complex, non-routine situations – in both the private and the public sector. Second, technological progress should be directed towards greener technologies, to avoid investments funds being channelled to brown technologies for short-term returns. Third, our knowledge of the opportunities for achieving green growth must base upon a joint assessment of market failures, structural system failures and transformational system failures. Finally, greater attention should be devoted to the geography of green growth processes at different scales.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Juan A. Martínez-Román, Javier Gamero, María de Loreto Delgado-González, Juan A. Tamayo〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Innovation is essential to the knowledge economy and requires organizations to open to external markets. This paper delves into the influence of product innovation on internationalization in SMEs and elaborates an explanatory model of their innovative behavior. Analysis of the data of 123,395 surveys of firms in 13 European countries demonstrates that product innovation drives the firm's commercial expansion and favors its exportation activity, though with a non-linear relationship and decreasing performances as innovation level increases. It is also demonstrated that, in general terms, risk in geographic market extension does not vary in a relevant way when firms are more innovative. Significant differences were detected between countries in regard to the impact of innovation and its marginal utility, and in the evolution of risk in said market extension with increasing innovation. The comparative analysis reveals differences between more and less technological industries, and, on an aggregate level, between more developed economies in the Western and Eastern European transition economies, with less marked disparities from north to south. Analysis of the model reveals the prominence of internal variables in innovative behavior, as well as a certain disconnect between firms and the institutional context in the set of countries.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Haiyan Deng, Ruifa Hu, Carl Pray, Yanhong Jin〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉China has put in place a series of policies to support private companies to engage in biotechnology research. This study uses data from a survey of 103 major agribusiness firms in the agricultural chemical and seed industries in China to evaluate the impact of government policies on private R&D investment in biotechnology. The results show that firms with positive profit expectation, public R&D subsidies, R&D collaboration with universities/research institutes or state-owned enterprises are more likely to embark on biotechnology research activities. Past patenting activity, R&D subsidies and collaboration with public sector research increase firms' biotechnology R&D investment while firms already selling genetically modified products and firms that are state-owned spend less on R&D. Our findings suggest that government policy does have an important impact on firms' biotechnology R&D investment.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yong Liu, Jun-liang Du, Jin-bi Yang, Wu-yong Qian, Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The research and development (R&D) of general purpose technologies (GPTs) is a collaborative effort of innovation involving multiple stakeholders, which has received extensive attention worldwide. Considering the characteristics of China's R&D of Nano-GPT, this research mainly makes two contributions: (1) Based on the theory of conflict analysis, a theoretical framework of Chinese GPTs super-conflict equilibrium is constructed to analyze the decision-making behavior among stakeholders, which enriches the theory of GPTs; (2) Under the framework of super-conflict equilibrium of GPTs, an incentive mechanism is designed to promote the R&D of GPTs from the perspective of cost sharing, and its incentive effect is stable and sustainable. In addition, taking “Suzhou Institute of Nano-Tech and Nano-Bionics (SINANO) of Jiangsu in China” as a case, this paper provides some interesting management suggestions through numerical simulation analysis, which are more suitable for developing countries with similar R&D situation in China's GPTs.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 20 March 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Joyce V. Zwartkruis, Holger Berg, Andries F. Hof, Marcel T.J. Kok〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In this paper three approaches on transitions pathways are combined to study the role of agricultural nature conservation in the Dutch land use domain for achieving internationally agreed climate and biodiversity targets. The three perspectives used are the Multilevel Perspective (MLP), Initiative Based Learning (IBL) and Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM). The analysis provides insights in how the combination of different research approaches can lead to more comprehensive policy advice on how agricultural nature conservation could help to achieve internationally agreed sustainability goals related to climate change and biodiversity. IAM shows under which conditions agricultural nature conservation could be consistent with European and global long-term goals regarding food security, biodiversity and climate. MLP provides insight into the extent in which agricultural nature conservation has affected or changed the existing nature and agricultural regimes. IBL, finally, reveals the challenges of encouraging agricultural nature conservation with policy measures. Our analysis shows that a combined perspective provides a deeper understanding of the underlying processes, reasons and motives of agricultural nature conservation, leading to more comprehensive policy recommendations.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 16 March 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Victor Chang, Yuanyuan Wang, Gary Wills〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This study aims to explore factors influencing behavioral intention to adopt hearing aids among old adults in smart cities. It argues that trust is a moderator to influence the relationship between attitude, subjective norm and individual's behavioral intention in smart cities. This study tests hypotheses using a sample of 103 respondents from six smart cities in China. The results reveal that attitude is main factor influencing individual's behavioral intention. Subjective norm and trust are both not statistically significant at the 95% confidence interval in the model of multiple-regression. Interestingly, it finds that trust moderates the relationship between subjective norm and individual's behavioral intention. It means that the audiologists' advice can positively affect person's behavioral intention in smart cities. The findings imply that the Theory of Reasoned Action can be partially used to explain the person's behavioral intention in Chinese context. This study contributes to encourage old people to use smart hospitals to consult audiologists about hearing loss and hearing aids rehabilitation. Hence, hearing aids can improve their quality of life (QoL), which can be reflected by the improved standard of living, better access to treatments and also the positive sentiment about their life, including comfort, friendship, happiness and a closer connection to the society.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 19 September 2017〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Raj V. Mahto, Olga Belousova, Saurabh Ahluwalia〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The economic philosophy of abundance has provided a new portal to view disruptive innovation. After decades of the world's middle class shrinking and the poor becoming poorer the abundance concept has created an interest in the “Rising Billion” transforming the poor into a more viable economic force and grow a worldwide vibrant middle class throughout the developed, developing and underdeveloped world. The abundance concept provides a new set of potential problems that are spurring new opportunities. The 21st century grand challenges have been enumerated by many but include at least six key basic human necessities: healthcare; water, education; food generation, energy, and the environment. The key to “Abundance” is to better understand the disruptive innovation phenomena, and how it can be used for social change. Scholars have utilized different perspectives to explain innovation phenomenon, but literature on disruptive innovation can benefit from a coherent theoretical framework that can explain origins of disruptive innovation and the role of scarcity/abundance in that process. In this paper, we provide one such theoretical framework to better explain and understand the relationship among scarcity, abundance, and innovation concepts from a market perspective. More specifically, this paper address the need to understand how radical or disruptive innovations occur to create a more abundant world and what market conditions motivates innovators, especially in communities enduring poverty and scarcity of resources such as the “Bottom Billion” and the shrinking middle class to do so. We build a theoretical model of disruptive innovation in a resource-constrained environment by integrating arguments from the theory of social capital, disruptive innovation and entrepreneurial action, and social innovation.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 12 March 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Nazrul Islam, Yorgos Marinakis, Mary Anne Majadillas, Matthias Fink, Steven T. Walsh〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The major challenges facing the 21st century world demands disruptive technology based solutions. One of the most promising exponential technology set to address world challenges is the Internet of Things (IoT) based Trillion Sensor System (TSS). The IoT supports many revolutionary commercial and societal solutions including wearable or unobtrusive medical sensors, Industry 4.0, power and water grids, smart cities, food production, education, transportation and roadway infrastructure needs. However, to support these solutions the current IoT infrastructure needs improved spectrum and the use of between one to ten Trillion Sensors (TS). The development of a robust IoT based TSS infrastructure would create an addition to world GDP equal to that of the U.S. GDP to double the worlds GDP. This new IoT based TSS would create a high paying job base that will form a new vibrant world middle class and an abundant economy. Yet while much is written about the ability of the IoT to transform society little effort is focused on its infrastructure. If this is true there is cause for concern. We add to the literature by developing a precursor road mapping construct which focuses on the service sector and supports 3rd generation road mapping techniques. We utilize the emerging IoT TSS technology base as our case study. We utilize the best thoughts of hundreds of experts from three organizations focused on accelerating IoT TSS road mapping efforts.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Matteo Landoni, dt ogilvie〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉This paper contributes to an understanding of the evolution of the space industry and the role innovation policy and industrial change have played in that process. It looks at the impact of business-government interactions on the emerging space industry and how it evolved from the consolidation of aerospace businesses to the government creating national agencies to support the industry (through the use of innovation policy instruments) at the same time that privatization of the aerospace businesses occurred.〈/p〉 〈p〉We conducted a comparative case study of the aerospace industry in three European countries—France, Italy, and the United Kingdom (the U.K.)—that explores the governments' strategies to develop the emerging space industry. These strategies comprise a mix of innovation instruments, including the establishment of government agencies with the mission of supporting the space industry. The space agencies in each country had a common design that enabled the businesses to become global players in the industry.〈/p〉 〈p〉There is a link between the design of innovation policy mixes and the emerging model of European decentralized governance. This paper contributes to the literature by suggesting that government agencies are instruments of innovation policy for developing innovative industries.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Klas Eriksson, Mirko Ernkvist, Christofer Laurell, Jerker Moodysson, Rasmus Nykvist, Christian Sandström〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉What is the role of innovation policy for accomplishing renewal of mature industries in Western economies? Drawing upon an unusually rich dataset spanning 9752 digitized archival documents, we categorize and code decisions taken by policymakers on several levels while also mapping and quantifying the strategic activities of both entrant firms and incumbent monopolists over a decade. Our data concerns two empirical cases from Sweden during the time period 1980–1990: the financial sector and the telecommunications sector. In both industries, a combination of technological and institutional upheaval came into motion during this time period which in turn fueled the revitalization of the Swedish economy in the subsequent decades. Our findings show that Swedish policymakers in both cases consistently acted in order to promote the emergence of more competition and de novo entrant firms at the expense of established monopolies. The paper quantifies and documents this process while also highlighting several enabling conditions. In conclusion, the results indicate that successful innovation policy in mature economies is largely a matter of strategically dealing with resourceful vested interest groups, alignment of expectations, and removing resistance to industrial renewal.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Alexander Sokolov, Sergey Shashnov, Maxim Kotsemir, Anna Grebenyuk〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉International cooperation in science, technology and innovation (STI) plays an increasingly significant role as it allows one to gain access to new knowledge, increase national competitiveness, jointly respond to Grand Challenges, and contribute to overall bilateral and multilateral political cooperation. International alliances aim to establish a win-win system of common STI priorities in order to coordinate their research efforts in a wider political context. Within such a system, individual countries have to use different policy instruments for achieving their own benefits via STI collaboration with foreign partners. The paper addresses the following research question: “How can quantitative analysis help better identify priorities for STI collaboration that provide additional benefits for a country participating in such work?”.〈/p〉 〈p〉A set of common STI priorities for BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has been identified based on the analysis of strategic, Foresight, and STI policy documents and expert consultations. It includes a number of STI areas with a wide range of practical applications. Additional quantitative analysis shows how an individual member country can build its cooperation strategy by selecting particular thematic areas and relevant instruments for STI collaboration.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 17 March 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Armando Papa, Monika Mital, Paola Pisano, Manlio Del Giudice〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉According to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal No. 3 (SDG – Goal 3), for sustainable development it is imperative to ensure health and well-being across all ages, and is achievable only through effective and continuous healthcare monitoring. But in India and other third world countries, healthcare monitoring is poor compared to other countries in the world, in spite of it being affordable. The global healthcare smart wearable healthcare (SWH) devices market is expected to rise up at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 5.6% and by 2020 it is expected to reach 25 Billion (GVR Report, 2016). The growing incidences of lifestyle diseases, sedentary lifestyle, busy work schedules, technological advancements in healthcare monitoring devices, and increased usage of remote devicesseems to be some of the important factors fuelling this growth. Some of the major players in this segment are Abbott Laboratories, Philips Healthcare, Life Watch, GE Healthcare, Omron Healthcare, Siemens Healthcare and Honeywell International Inc. etc. But in spite of the healthcare monitoring devices are being predicted to be technologically innovative and providing advanced as well as basic health care monitoring features and available in various price ranges based on the features, we wanted to empirically study the attitude towards adoption of such devices in India. India has traditionally been having a very lackadaisical attitude towards healthcare monitoring. In such a context, what would be the factors influencing the adoption of SWH devices. Remote health monitoring can enhance the nature of wellbeing administration and to lessen the aggregate expense in human services by maintaining a strategic distance from pointless hospitalizations and guaranteeing that the individuals who need critical consideration get it sooner. This empirical investigation would provide a detailed insight as to how these wearable Internet Of Things devices would bring about a revolution in the healthcare industry. It would also provide the future prospect of IOT devices in this sector and how the probability of increase in its usage can be increased with time. The paper explores intrusiveness (INTR), Comfort (C), perceived usefulness (PU) and perceived ease of use (EOU) of SWH devices. The study hypothesized the Impact of PU and EOU, INTR and C on attitude and intention to use towards adoption of SWH devices. Partial Least Square Structured Equation Modeling (PLS – SEM) methodology was applied to explore the relationships between the concepts and hypothesis. The data was collected from 273 respondents. The age group of the respondents was between 25 and 40 years. The results indicated that intrusiveness and comfort do not have a significant direct impact on Intention to use BI (Behavior Intention) BI SWH devices. At the same time Intrusiveness had a significant impact on PU of SWH devices and Comfort has a strong significant impact on PU and EOU of smart wearables. The research has strong implications in the current emerging context of smart wearables, their design and effectiveness. Also the research can have lasting implications on elderly health and well-being. There are very few empirical studies in the area of SWH devices. Most of the studies till now are conceptual studies or providing technology architectures and frameworks. The research in this area is still at a very nascent stage and very few studies have been done to explore the use and adoption of SWH devices.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Chih-Chun Kung, Xiaoyong Cao, Yongrok Choi, Shan-Shan Kung〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Agriculture is considered to be highly vulnerable to global climate change which has significant influences on regional temperature and precipitation, thereby altering crop yields, resource allocation, land-use patterns, distribution of cultivars, farmers' behavior, and social welfare. To understand how agricultural activities respond to climate change, therefore, it is necessary to investigate farmers' behavior in the face of climate-induced crop yield changes. We extend the deterministic agricultural sector model to a two-stage stochastic programming with recourse (SPR) model to evaluate the potential changes in cropland utilization and agro-economic measures under climate impacts in Taiwan. We show that when farmers are uncertain the risk, land use could alter considerably. In such cases, approximately 55% and 26% of corn land and peanut land, respectively, will be used to plant other crops. When changes in crop yield are certain, farmers can maintain their income at a cost of higher government expenditures on aside-land subsidy and rice repurchase program. Because yields of many crops present a positive response to climate change, in some cases the net social welfare might increase by NT$800 million dollars (after subtracting NT$5.2 billion dollars of government expenditure) or 0.2% of total agricultural production, and most of the benefits are captured by farmers. These issues, as well as policy implications such as wealth redistribution and resource allocation are discussed in detail.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Hyungsoo Lim, Duk Bin Jun, Mohsen Hamoudia〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This study proposes a model that enables us to investigate the multi-generation and the multi-country diffusion process simultaneously. Many former studies focus on only one of the dimensions since it is difficult to integrate both dimensions at the same time. Our proposed framework can explain both diffusion processes by capturing the common trend of multi-generation diffusion process and the country-specific heterogeneity. We develop the choice-based diffusion model by decomposing the choice probability of adoption into two components; the first component explains the individual country heterogeneity depending on the country-based variables while the second component captures the common trend of multi-generation diffusion process with the generation-based variables. We apply the model to 3G and 4G connections across 25 countries. Empirical result shows that it is not easy to use individual country level model for most countries due to the lack of data points. Our pooled model outperforms several individual country models according to the fitting and forecasting measures. We find that each country's market competitiveness and the market price affect the rate of diffusion and show that random effects of 3G and 4G are positively correlated. This framework provides the fine prediction capability even with few data points and valuable information for formulating policies on a new generation.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 141〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Mabel Sánchez-Barrioluengo, Paul Benneworth〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉There is an increasing interest in the analysis of how universities should maximise their specific regional contribution alongside their traditional teaching and research goals. However, due to the institutional heterogeneity it is necessary to understand the process by which universities create regional benefits, specifically through their third mission outputs. To cover this gap, this paper investigates the extent to which internal institutional configurations affect the production of these benefits on the UK Higher Education sector. It focuses on four elements of the universities' structural configuration (〈em〉steering core, administrative machinery, internal coupling〈/em〉 and 〈em〉academic heartland)〈/em〉 in different university models: the entrepreneurial university and the (regional) engaged university model.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 27 March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Sonal H. Singh, Bhaskar Bhowmick, Dale Eesley, Birud Sindhav〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Grassroots innovation is rapidly gaining research attention because of its crucial role in entrepreneurship development. Although entrepreneurial orientation holds the key for entrepreneurial success, research on how entrepreneurial orientation impacts the relationship between grassroots innovation (GRI) and entrepreneurial success is critical. This research is still in its infancy and has not adequately been addressed. This study endeavors to fill this gap while examining how the three factors of grassroots innovation such as new grassroots learning practices, local solution and networking capabilities influence entrepreneurial orientation enroute to affecting economic benefits and non-economic benefits from entrepreneurial activity. The study involved data from 400 grassroots innovators and a structural equation modeling approach was used to fit the data based on the aforementioned factors and components. The study reveals that entrepreneurial orientation is observed to fully mediate the relationship between the following three linear dependencies: new grassroots learning practices and economic benefits, networking capabilities and economic benefits, and local solution and non-economic benefits. This study also found that entrepreneurial orientation partially mediates the relationship in the following cases: new grassroots learning practices and non-economic benefits, networking capabilities and non-economic benefits, and local solution and economic benefits. The results provide empirical evidence to support that entrepreneurial orientation spurred by grassroots innovation significantly influence entrepreneurial success in the Indian context.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 27 March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Léo-Paul Dana, Calin Gurău, Frank Hoy, Veland Ramadani, Todd Alexander〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Grassroots innovation projects have the potential to generate novel, bottom-up solutions that respond to local situations, interests and values – solving the social, economic and environmental problems of marginalized communities; however, these projects can raise important challenges during their design, testing, development and implementation. Although extant studies identify some of these problems, the literature and practice lack a comprehensive diagnostic tool that can effectively predict the potential and success of grassroots initiatives. For this reason, important problems are often neglected, and failed projects are not thoroughly investigated and analyzed, which leads to missed opportunities of corrective learning. This study addresses this knowledge gap, proposing a diagnostic tool based on existing theoretical frameworks, which is then validated by investigating a failed grassroots innovation initiative, in order to identify its major shortcomings, and learn to avoid them in future projects. The findings also outline the role and importance of a socially inclusive approach for an effective deployment of grassroots initiatives, clarifying the relationship between grassroots innovation success and local community involvement.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yuki Inoue, Masaharu Tsujimoto〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 141〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Gabriel Axel Montes, Ben Goertzel〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The accelerating investment in artificial intelligence has vast implications for economic and cognitive development globally. However, AI is currently dominated by an oligopoly of centralized mega-corporations, who focus on the interests of their stakeholders. There is a now universal need for AI services by businesses who lack access to capital to develop their own AI services, and independent AI developers lack visibility and a source of revenue. This uneven playing field has a high potential to lead to inequitable circumstances with negative implications for humanity. Furthermore, the potential of AI is hindered by the lack of interoperability standards. The authors herein propose an alternative path for the development of AI: a distributed, decentralized, and democratized market for AIs run on distributed ledger technology. We describe the features and ethical advantages of such a system using SingularityNET, a watershed project being developed by Ben Goertzel and colleagues, as a case study. We argue that decentralizing AI opens the doors for a more equitable development of AI and AGI. It will also create the infrastructure for coordinated action between AIs that will significantly facilitate the evolution of AI into true AGI that is both highly capable and beneficial for humanity and beyond.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 141〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Nuno Bento, Gianfranco Gianfrate, Sara Virginia Groppo〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The growing literature on crowdfunding has mostly focused on the determinants of campaigns success, as well as on the legal and macroeconomic drivers of the crowdfunding diffusion as a mean to finance innovative projects. Still there are scant evidences on whether the returns for crowdfunders are consistent with the risk profile of crowdfunded projects. By studying 365 European clean-tech projects which raised capital via crowdfunding, we show that once the country risk has been accounted for, the returns are not consistent with the risks related to the technology adopted by the projects. Behavioral factors like bounded rationality or the cultural dimension of investors may explain this apparent mispricing of risks. While projects' returns are, on average, negatively related to risks, we find that projects offering better risk-adjusted returns attract relatively larger average contributions. Our results have important implications for understanding the drivers of crowdfunding returns and its sustainability, and particularly for its diffusion as an instrument to foster the transition to a low-carbon economy.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Cameron Roberts, Frank W. Geels〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This article investigates the conditions under which policymakers are likely to decisively accelerate socio-technical transitions. We develop a conceptual framework that combines insights from historical institutionalism and the Multi-Level Perspective to better understand the political dimension in transitions, focusing particularly on the mechanisms of political 〈em〉defection〈/em〉 from incumbent regime to niche-innovation. We distinguish two ideal-type patterns, one where external (landscape) shocks create a ‘critical juncture’ and one where gradual feedbacks change the balance of power between niche-innovation and regime. We also identify more proximate conditions such as external pressures on policymakers (from business interests, mass publics, and technologies) and policy-internal developments (changes in problem definitions and access to institutional arrangements). We apply this framework to two historical case studies in which UK policymakers deliberately accelerated transitions: the transition from rail to road transport (1920–1970); and the transition from traditional mixed agriculture to specialised wheat agriculture (1920–1970). We analyse the conditions for major policy change in each case and draw more general conclusions. We also discuss implications for contemporary low-carbon transitions, observing that while some favourable conditions are in place, they do not yet meet all the prerequisites for political acceleration.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Veland Ramadani, Robert D. Hisrich, Hyrije Abazi-Alili, Léo-Paul Dana, Laxman Panthi, Lejla Abazi-Bexheti〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Using Business Environment Enterprise Performance Surveys (BEEPS), this paper provides a multistage empirical analysis of product innovation and firm performance in transition economies (TEs). The Crepon-Duguet-Mairesse (CDM) model, a four-stage approach, is used to investigate the innovation-performance relationship. The multistage model allows studying the innovation activities of firms through multi-interrelated factors while controlling the issue of simultaneity and causality. The paper contributes to the research in this area by estimating the effect of innovation on performance through multistage equation modeling. It fills the gap in providing an understanding of factors that influence on product innovation - firm performance relationship in transition economies. This research is among the first to use product-only innovation to measure the impact of innovation on firms' performance. Findings indicate that product innovation has a positive impact on firm performance in transition economies, complemented by significant impact of specific control variables such as size, total labor cost, capital of the firm. Whereas age and competition from the informal sector, have a negative and significant effect on performance.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jean-Philippe Bootz, Philippe Durance, Régine Monti〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In this paper, we introduce the themes addressed and approaches used by contributors to this special issue. Firstly, we underline that KM is approaching a stage of maturity that requires continuing efforts to use theoretical and empirical investigation to question its future evolution, through a foresight reflection. In parallel, we show that the link between knowledge management and foresight is of long-standing concern. In the context of a knowledge-based economy, this connection has taken on a structuring dimension. Thus, the purpose of this TFSC special issue is two-fold. On the one hand, we seek to explore the impacts of foresight on knowledge management and to understand its cognitive dimensions. And, on the other hand, we cast a future-oriented eye on knowledge management both as a set of practices and a research field. Finally, we present an overview of the topics covered by the selected papers.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 141〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Stefania Testa, Kristian Roed Nielsen, Marcel Bogers, Silvano Cincotti〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Crowdfunding presents many opportunities for moving towards a sustainable society, with specific interest for sustainable entrepreneurs and innovators. In order to examine the potential role of crowdfunding in this context, we position this Special Issue (SI) within the larger stream of sustainability transitions literature, and in particular in relation to one of the field's key frameworks, i.e. the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP). We argue that crowdfunding represents a novel socio-technical practice with the potential of upscaling and transforming financial and – potentially – sustainability regimes. This introductory article contains an overview of the articles, described by using the MLP typology. Some authors describe the role of crowdfunding in enabling user-producer and user-consumer interaction at an early stage; others focus on crowdfunding as a tool for user-legitimators and user-citizens. In terms of future research, the novelty of the phenomenon leaves a wide range of areas open for further research, with the current literature primarily focused on uncovering the antecedents of funding success and failure, something that is also apparent in this SI. To help the field move forward, we identify five areas as the most relevant for future research.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Wentao Gu, Yiqing Peng〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Forecasting the direction of stock returns is an important topic in the literature, and it is, to some extent, predictable. In this paper, we consider a new directional forecasting model that applies and extends the time-varying probability density function theory that was proposed by Harvey and Oryshchenko (2012). We capitalize on the relationship between the second order upper partial moment and the directional forecasts, and construct an adjustment mechanism for the forecasting model, which is an original work to the best of our knowledge. The empirical work using data from the Chinese stock market shows that both our forecasting benchmark model and the adjustment mechanism have statistically and economically significant out-of-sample predictive abilities for directional forecasts. Furthermore, the adjustment mechanism provides a great improvement and outperforms the benchmark model in general, and the results of the binary forecasting model are also provided for comparison purposes.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): A.K.M. Najmul Islam, Matti Mäntymäki, Marja Turunen〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper investigates the focal actors in a blockchain network and their heterogeneity in splits. Disagreements in blockchain communities often lead to splits in both the blockchain and the community. We use three key elements of the actor-network theory — punctualization, translation, and actor heterogeneity—and employ case study methodology to examine Bitcoin splits. We identify several human actors, such as miners, developers, merchants, and investors, as well as non-human actors, including blockchain, exchanges, hardware manufacturers, and wallets, involved in Bitcoin splits. Our results show that the consolidation of actors in homogeneous groups plays a key role in blockchain splits. We further describe how the human and non-human actors' fluid moves into micro and macro actor positions in the network affect the development of the split. In addition, we discuss the roles of these actors and their engagement in forming micro and macro agencies in blockchain splits.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Shuying Li, Edwin Garces, Tugrul Daim〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉During the last years, new technologies have been developing at a rapid pace; however, new technologies carry risks and uncertainties. Technology forecasting by analogy has been used in the case of emerging technologies; nevertheless, the use of analogies is subject to several problems such as lack of inherent necessity, historical uniqueness, historically conditioned awareness, and casual analogies. Additionally, the natural process of selecting the analogy technology is based on subjective criteria for technological similarities or inductive inference. Since many analogies are taken qualitatively and rely on subjective assessments, this paper presents a quantitative comparison process based on the Social Network Analysis (SNA) and patent analysis for selecting analogous technologies. In this context, the paper presents an analysis of complex patent network structures using centrality and density metrics in order to reduce the lack of information or the presence of uncertainties. The case of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) is explored in this paper, comparing three candidate technologies which have been chosen based on the similarities with the target technologies. The best candidate technology is selected based on the analysis of two main centrality metrics (average degree and density).〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Mingzhi Hu, Yinxin Su, Wenping Ye〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Housing prices have been soaring in China since the past decade. Rising housing prices indicate good opportunities in the labor and housing markets, which can discourage the entrepreneurial investment decisions of would-be entrepreneurs. However, high appreciation in housing prices can also relax credit constraints in setting up nascent businesses and thereby encourage entrepreneurship. This study investigates whether rising housing prices have a pulling or pushing effect on entrepreneurial activities. We find that housing price has a diminishingly negative effect on entrepreneurial activities using data from China's Urban Household Survey and China Statistical Yearbook for Regional Economy for the period 2002–2009. The mechanisms underlying why housing price affects entrepreneurship—labor market opportunities, relaxation of credit constraints, and housing market opportunities—are also investigated. Overall, this study offers new insights into entrepreneurial activities and highlights the negative externalities of overheated housing market to entrepreneurship in developing countries.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Gupeng Zhang, Xiao Wang, Hongbo Duan〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In R&D activity that is more dependent upon innovative ideas, does culture still play a significant role in determining the impact of leader-member relationship on R&D employees' innovation performance? Prior studies mostly examined the cultural influence in a general sense, but studies making a cross-cultural comparison especially in divergent work settings are rare. This study thus contributes to existing literatures by empirically testing the culturally implicit leadership theory in R&D activity with the patent co-inventing data of 51 Chinese and American firms. We find that compared with those in American firms, new R&D employees who act as subordinates in Chinese firms have stronger initiatives to collaborate with dominant R&D performers who act as leaders, while new R&D employees in American firms appear to be more indifferent to this relationship, even if they are aware that an earlier collaboration with dominant R&D performers is beneficial. In Chinese cultural context that is characterized by hierarchy and collectivism, this collaboration plays an inverted parabolic role in determining the new R&D employees' innovation performance from both quantitative and qualitative aspects. By comparison, this impact is not significant in American culture that is distinguished by democracy and individualism. Policy implications based on the Chinese cultural context are given at the end of this study.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, Stefano Manzocchi, Valentina Meliciani〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper investigates the role of knowledge-based capital for participation and value appropriation in global value chains (GVC) for a sample of European countries over 1995–2011. We distinguish between different forms of participation in GVC entailing a different degree of capability to create value added domestically and examine how different intangible assets contribute to countries' engagement and value appropriation in GVC. We find that knowledge-based capital is positively correlated with participation and value appropriation along the value chain. This finding is robust to introducing separately R&D and non-R&D intangibles. In particular, training and organizational capital have the largest positive effect on value appropriation [JEL Classification: F23, O30].〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yongyoon Suh, Chulwan Woo, Jinhwan Koh, Jeonghwan Jeon〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Recently, there has been an increase in the university-industry cooperation to achieve harmonious development under the paradigm of open innovation. The government is engaging in various activities to promote successful university–industry cooperation efforts. Accordingly, relevant studies on the achievement of university–industry cooperation activities have been performed by many academic researchers. However, the satisfaction levels among university–industry cooperation program participants are insufficient. Moreover, studies on satisfaction with university–industry cooperation are also inadequate. Therefore, this research aims to propose a framework to analyse satisfaction with university–industry cooperation programs. The satisfaction index, dissatisfaction index, and potential customer satisfaction improvement (PCSI) index scores of the main efforts in university–industry cooperation are derived based on the Kano model. Portfolio analysis is performed to classify these main efforts into four categories and to analyse their characteristics. This study is expected to help improve satisfaction with university–industry cooperation by deriving guidelines for these types of initiatives.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: January 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 150〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Giacomo Büchi, Monica Cugno, Rebecca Castagnoli〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Existing literature on the Industry 4.0 concept does not empirically verify if, how, and for which types of firms, a greater openness to enabling technologies of Industry 4.0 provides further opportunities. This study analyzes the causal relationship between this degree of openness and performance, with an empirical analysis based on a sample representing local manufacturing units. Performance is measured by the extent of opportunities businesses obtain. The degree of openness is investigated using two indicators: breadth, or the number of technologies used; and depth, or the number of value chain stages involved. The regression models demonstrate that: (1) breadth and (2) depth of Industry 4.0 allow greater opportunities, and (3) micro-level local units achieve best performances. Verifying the opportunities for companies with Industry 4.0 is extremely relevant, as investments in Industry 4.0 are high in terms of costs, the acquisition of new skills, and the risks of obsolescence to enable better strategic decisions. This work also provides a scope for future analyses of this topic conducted on panel data. Despite the limited application of Industry 4.0, this study's results can encourage managers and policy-makers to implement a wider range of enabling technologies in the various stages of the value chain.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 151〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Stefano Magistretti, Claudio Dell'Era, Roberto Verganti〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Today's world is characterized by a continuous evolution in the demand and supply of new technology solutions, challenging the way companies pursue and manage technology development. Indeed, companies can no longer take decades to develop new technologies, but are compelled to deliver technologies in a short space of time. Despite the ample literature on the different technology development processes, the main factors influencing the creation of technological solutions remain unclear. The problem is no longer identifying a new process for developing a technology, but understanding which elements can guide the selection of the best approach for the situation faced. The aim of this study is therefore to provide a systematic literature review of technology development studies to contribute to shed lights on how companies can develop technology to foster innovations in a society that is continuously evolving its technological needs. The analysis of 187 articles highlights that process, organization, and knowledge are the three key dimensions that influence every technology development process. Thus, two main dichotomies emerge (i) linear vs iterative on the process level, (ii) designing vs finding on the knowledge level. Accordingly, we propose a research agenda based on a framework mapping the four resulting approaches.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 152〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yu Cui, Hao Jiao, Jin Chen〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 151〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Seokbeom Kwon, Matej Drev〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉Defensive Patent Aggregators (DPA) are a new patent intermediary that aims to counter the threat of Patent Assertion Entities (PAEs) to technology practicing firms by preempting patents that can be utilized by PAEs. In this study, we investigate whether and to what extent DPAs are in competition with PAEs for patent aggregation.〈/p〉 〈p〉In our theoretical analysis, we develop a game theoretic model that illustrates the selection of patents for aggregation by DPAs and PAEs, and derive four testable hypotheses regarding differences between the DPAs and PAEs aggregated patents. The model shows that DPAs are unlikely to be in complete competition with PAEs for patent aggregation and there are systematic differences in the characteristics of patents acquired by PAEs and DPAs. Our empirical analysis using U.S. patents aggregated by large PAEs and DPAs from 2008 to 2014 presents corroborating evidence for our hypotheses. Our findings imply that DPAs' patent preemption business model alone may not be sufficient to mitigate the threat of PAEs for technology firms, and point to the important role of public policy intervention. We discuss implications for technology firms and policymakers who seek to establish state-run DPAs.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 151〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Reilly White, Yorgos Marinakis, Nazrul Islam, Steven Walsh〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have fascinated technologists and investors alike. They have become prevalent, with over 2,000 Bitcoin-like cryptocurrencies now in use. Most jurisdictions have not regulated cryptocurrencies. Whether existing regulations apply to cryptocurrency turns ultimately on if we classify cryptocurrencies as currencies, securities, or derivatives, or a money services (transfer) vehicle. In this set of exploratory analyses we seek to classify Bitcoin. We utilize a variety of methods to compare aspects of its behavior to: currencies, asset classes such as derivatives, technology-based products and possible technology-based products such as Ether and the security SPY, and speculative financial bubbles. We find that Bitcoin's behavior more closely resembles a technology-based product, an emerging asset class, or a bubble event, rather than a currency or a security; such that it is correct that existing currency and security laws should not apply to cryptocurrencies.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 151〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Zhenbing Yang, Shuai Shao, Chengyu Li, Lili Yang〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Although China's technological strength has improved, the country's innovation inefficiency caused by research & development (R&D) resource misallocation should be addressed. Using the heterogeneous stochastic frontier approach and the panel data of China's 28 manufacturing sectors from 2001 to 2015, this paper estimates innovative technical efficiency, the output elasticity of R&D inputs, the factor-biased indicators of technological innovation, and the elasticity of substitution between R&D inputs. Ways to alleviate R&D resource misallocation are discussed based on these indicators. We find that the innovative technical efficiency of China's manufacturing sector is less than 1 and exhibits a markedly fluctuating trend, implying that R&D inputs are severely misallocated. The output elasticity of R&D capital experiences a continuously downward trend, while that of R&D personnel presents a stably upward trend. Overall, the technological innovation of China's manufacturing sector was biased to R&D personnel in the period of 2002–2013, and then presented a fluctuating change in the period of 2014–2015. R&D capital and R&D personnel exhibited a stable substitution relationship from 2008 to 2015. However, during the period of 2001–2007, the relationship between these two R&D inputs changed alternately. Finally, we provide some solutions to alleviate the misallocation of R&D resources for different sub-sectors according to the output elasticities of R&D inputs, the factor-biased level of technological innovation, and the substitution relationship between R&D inputs. Specifically, it is necessary to increase the input of R&D factor with a higher output elasticity by adjusting the factor-biased level of technological innovation.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 151〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yanhong Yuan, Jinyao Yang, Yang Li, Wei Li〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In order to eliminate profit loss caused by decentralized decision-making in closed-loop supply chain systems, this paper adopts the method of optimization analysis and game theory to analyze the necessary conditions for manufacturers, retailers and third-party online recyclers to achieve interest coordination under equilibrium conditions. In addition, the robustness of the results is verified by numerical analysis. The results show that in order to make the total profit of decentralized decision-making equivalent to that of centralized decision-making, the recycling cost of retailers and third-party recyclers must be the same; new products must be shipped at zero profit, re-manufactured products shall be sold at the difference between the residual value of the recovered product and the cost of recovery, and the manufacturer's recycling price shall be determined by the cost of recycling and residual value. It implies that multi-channel recycling must be carried out under the premise of uniform recycling costs. At the same time as the elimination of the product price increase, the manufacturer's income must be guaranteed through agreements and other forms. The government can realize the recovery price in the direction of benefiting consumers by improving the residual value of used products and easing channel competition.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 151〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Andrea Bonaccorsi, Riccardo Apreda, Gualtiero Fantoni〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉The paper addresses an issue largely discussed in the field of Forecasting and in many future-oriented scientific and professional disciplines, but less frequently considered in the Foresight literature, particularly in the technology foresight field- i.e. the extent to which biases of human experts influence the foresight process.〈/p〉 〈p〉The paper reviews the literature on cognitive biases and identifies the main areas of technology foresight in which biases are most likely to materialize. It offers a number of examples in which these biases may indeed create distortions. It also reviews the potential impact of several recently introduced methods, in the field of technology foresight and in related areas, to mitigate the distortions and calls for future research in this new field of investigation.〈/p〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 152〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Amarolinda Klein, Carsten Sørensen, Angilberto Sabino de Freitas, Cristiane Drebes Pedron, Silvia Elaluf-Calderwood〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Due to their scaling potential and complexity, digital platforms tend to generate public interest, and in some cases significant controversies and paradoxes. Previous research has generated knowledge about controversies in digital platform innovations. However, this work mainly focuses on the types of controversies and their effects rather than on the 〈em〉process〈/em〉 of controversy emergence. In this article, we analyze how controversies related to digital platform innovation emerge and how they unfold over the innovation process. We analyze the case of the Google Glass failure to establish this ARSG (Augmented Reality Smart Glasses) extension to Google's digital platform. The paper contributes to the study of controversies by analyzing the digital platform innovation process as a process of translation, in which there are possible controversy emergence points originated in types of disagreements among the different human actors involved and their interactions with non-human elements. These disagreements are related to specific features of digital platforms: the digital platform generativity, the multisided market arrangements in the platform; the loosely coupled layers of technologies and applications involved, and the opaqueness that results from these arrangements. The framework proposed can support digital platform scholars and practitioners to in better understand and manage controversies.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 152〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Tao Wu, Chih-Chun Kung〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The major obstacle to reducing carbon emissions is the high cost of adopting clean energy, which reduces the market competitiveness of companies using clean energy. In this paper, we study the asymmetric duopoly models of two competing supply chains with different carbon emission technology. The financing risk of the supply chain's carbon emission technology investment could be available as complete or incomplete information to its competitor. We find that the financing risk of carbon emission technology upgradation does not affect either chain's choices of equilibrium quantities and prices in the complete information case. If this information is incomplete for the traditional supply chain, financing risk plays an important role in determining optimal quantities and optimal prices. To encourage the use of clean energy technology to reduce carbon emissions, government should use the per-product carbon emission tax to encourage the traditional supply chain to upgrade its carbon emission technology, and should encourage financial institutions to provide preferential loans to the supply chain that has carbon emission technology disadvantage in the market.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: June 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 143〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Wenxiang Li, Lei Bao, Luqi Wang, Ye Li, Xianmin Mai〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Given increasing concern about climate change, the trend toward low-carbon urban transport development has global appeal. The evaluation of low-carbon urban transport is a prerequisite for a transition toward low-carbon urban transport. However, most of the existing research focuses only on the absolute evaluation of urban transport CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions, which do not represent the level of low-carbon urban transport. In addition, an absolute evaluation is not comparable across different cities over time because it ignores the effects of urban heterogeneity. Therefore, this paper develops a comparative evaluation method that considers the effects of urban population scale, population density and economic development. A benchmark model of per capita CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions for different cities with different properties is established based on the relationships between urban population scale, population density, and economic development. Then, a comparative evaluation index is derived from the benchmark model to independently evaluate the effects of policy factors, which may reflect the level of low-carbon urban transport. As a result, cities with low-carbon urban transport can be identified. Furthermore, four urban transport transition types are identified: stable high-carbon transitions, stable low-carbon transitions, low-carbon transitions, and high-carbon transitions. These methods are applied to 180 cities worldwide to verify their effectiveness. This is the first time that 180 global cities have been compared using a unified and quantitative evaluation index of low-carbon urban transport.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: June 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 143〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Surja Datta, Mohammed Saad, David Sarpong〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 7 March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Peter Hofmann, Robert Keller, Nils Urbach〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Ongoing advances in digital technologies – which enable new products, services, and business models – have fundamentally affected business and society through several waves of digitalization. When analyzing digital technologies, a dynamic system or an ecosystem model that represents interrelated technologies is beneficial owing to the systemic character of digital technologies. Using an assembly-based process model for situational method engineering, and following the design science research paradigm, we develop an analytical method to generate technology-related network data that retraces elapsed patterns of technological change. We consider the technological distances that characterize technologies' proximities and dependencies. We use established text mining techniques and draw from technology innovation research as justificatory knowledge. The proposed method processes textual data from different information sources into an analyzable and readable inter-technology relationship network. To evaluate the method, we use exemplary digital technologies from the big data analytics domain as an application scenario.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: June 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 143〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Eric Kemp-Benedict, Henrik Carlsen, Sivan Kartha〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉There is increasing interest in cross-scale scenario development, driven in part by developments in climate scenarios. Climate mitigation and adaptation studies have long emphasized the link between global change and local action, and recent climate community scenarios have been developed with cross-scale application in mind. Conceptually, global scenarios have been proposed as ‘boundary conditions’ on regional and local scenarios. However, while the concept is compelling, to date we have found only one formal proposal (by Schweizer and Kurniawan) of what it might mean from a scenario development perspective. That proposal used cross-impact balances (CIB), which offer a promising route to formalization of cross-scale scenario analysis. In this paper we also apply CIB, but allow for weak, rather than zero, cross-scale interactions. We formalize the concept of weak interactions by extending CIB analysis to allow for metastable states, which are stable under small disturbances. We propose an algorithm for identifying metastable states and for combining states that become connected when small disturbances are present. Arguing that large-scale scenarios can be applied as boundary conditions when they are metastable under the influence of processes at smaller scales, we demonstrate how a simplified CIB can replace a full multi-scale CIB when a metastable scenario kernel is adopted at large scale.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 20 March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Matti Minkkinen〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Due to rapid change and wicked policy problems, anticipatory policymaking is increasingly important. In addition to methods for producing foresight knowledge, tools are needed to make sense of the increasing amounts of future-oriented argumentation. This article presents a comparative analysis of anticipatory argumentation in two fields: the EU data protection reform and the Finnish concept for comprehensive security. A three-layer heuristic framework is presented for qualitative analysis of statements on plausible futures. The first layer consists of specific expectations regarding the future. The second layer is the generic anticipatory storyline. The third layer consists of the underlying futures consciousness. The data protection case presents an institutional reform narrative with short time perspective and relatively high agency, while the comprehensive security case presents a crisis narrative based on a contingency planning orientation with long time perspective, relatively developed systems perception and relatively low agency. In policy foresight with high uncertainty and high aspirations of agency, reflexivity and ethical responsibility are crucial components of foresight. This article promotes these by providing a tool for structuring anticipatory assumptions. The tool can be used for studying policy documents or during the policy process to craft more rigorous future-oriented policies.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 19 March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Angelo Presenza, Tindara Abbate, Fabrizio Cesaroni, Francesco Paolo Appio〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The paper investigates the emerging practice of social crowdfunding. It focuses on both the role played by crowdfunding platforms and the activities that these platforms perform in enhancing and facilitating the diffusion of social and cultural projects through donations. Crowdfunding platforms empower the financing of projects by soliciting small investments from a large base of potential backers over the Internet and creating a dynamic funding network. However, crowdfunding platforms should also create greater legitimacy for social enterprises by promoting early societal interaction and participation. To explore the context of social crowdfunding, the paper examines the case of the Italian social crowdfunding platform – Meridonare – by using both primary and secondary data sources. Findings reveal that, beyond acting as a standard crowdfunding platform, Meridonare eases interactions and relationships among different stakeholders. The emerging set of relationships gives rise to a Social Crowdfunding Business Ecosystem (SCBE), with the crowdfunding platform acting as a 〈em〉hub〈/em〉 to enact knowledge sharing and service provision to a plethora of different actors.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: June 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 143〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Malin Song, Hui Li〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper estimates the efficiency of the Chinese tourism industry using traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA) and bootstrap-DEA. It also identifies the determinants of efficiency. The comprehensive and pure technical efficiency values estimated by DEA are higher than those estimated by bootstrap-DEA, indicating that the former method tends to overestimate efficiency. Further, the changes in comprehensive and pure technical efficiency are not significant, while some models display no efficiency. Additionally, economic development, urbanization, and the degree of opening up have positive effects. By regional division, the comprehensive technical efficiency declines from east to west and economic development is not significant in the eastern and central areas. Thus, the model is technically improved by adding environmental factors and adopting bootstrap technology to obtain more accurate efficiency values and decompose the rectified efficiency values. Finally, a panel Tobit model is used to analyze efficiency determinants.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 19 March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Amol C. Adamuthe, Gopakumaran T. Thampi〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This research presents trend projection and technology maturity curve of six computational technologies including three disruptive technologies namely mainframes, minicomputers and cloud computing. This investigation is beneficial to sensitize different stakeholders for making effective strategic policies and decisions. Time series data of patent and paper from U.S. patent office, European patent office, IEEE and ScienceDirect is used for forecasting. Use of two technology indicators from four sources made the forecasting results more reliable for decision makers. Six functions are tested to identify the best-fitted trend line. Results indicate that most of the technologies are better fitted to polynomial trend line of 2nd order. All computational technologies except cloud computing have undergone both upward and downward trends. Cloud computing shows a very high upward trend. Maturity curve is forecasted using the best-fitted growth curve method. Gompertz growth curve is better fitted than the logistic curve for many instances. Majority of the technologies follows introduction, growth, maturity and decline pattern. The life cycle pattern and growth rate of each technology is different. Growth pattern of mainframes and minicomputers is similar to the S-shaped curve. Growth pattern of grid computing and autonomic computing is similar to the “S-shaped” curve for research papers dataset.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: June 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 143〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Tao Wu, Li-Guo Zhang, Teng Ge〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In this paper, we study the asymmetric duopoly models of competing supply chains with financing risk. The financing risk of the green supply chain's capacity investment could be available as complete or incomplete information to the traditional supply chain. By analyzing and comparing the optimal quantities, optimal prices, and optimal profits of both cases, we find that the financing risk of capacity investment does not affect either chain's choices of equilibrium quantities and prices in the complete information case. If this information is incomplete for the traditional supply chain, financing risk plays an important role in determining optimal quantities and optimal prices, together with the lending interest rate. To encourage the use of environmentally friendly technologies, government should use per-unit subsidies if the green supply chain suffers the cost disadvantage, and should encourage financial institutions to provide preferential loans to the green supply chain that suffers manufacturing or retailing capacity restrictions.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 28 June 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Xin Li, Qianqian Xie, Jiaojiao Jiang, Yuan Zhou, Lucheng Huang〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Monitoring the emergence of emerging technologies helps managers and decision makers to identify development trends in emerging technologies is crucial for government research and development (R&D), strategic planning, social investment, and enterprise practices. Researchers usually use academic papers and patent data to identify and monitoring the trends of emerging technologies from a technological perspective, but they rarely make use of social media data (e.g., such as Twitter data) related to emerging technologies. Analysis of this social media data is of great significance to understand the emergence of emerging technologies and gain insight into development trends. Therefore, this paper proposes a framework that uses patent analysis and Twitter data mining to monitoring the emergence of emerging technologies and identify changing trends of these emerging technologies. The perovskite solar cell technology is selected as a case study. In this case, we used patent analysis to monitoring the evolutionary path of perovskite solar cell technology. We applied Twitter data mining to analyze Twitter users' sense of, response to, and expectations for this perovskite solar cell technology. We also identified the professional types of Twitter users and examined changes in their topics of interest over time to track the emergence of perovskite solar cell technology. We analyzed a comparison of the results of patent analysis and Twitter data mining to identify development trends of perovskite solar cell technology. This paper contributes to our understanding of how technologies emerge and develop, as well as the technology forecasting and foresight methodology, and will be of interest to solar photovoltaic technology R&D experts.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 28 June 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jae-Yong Choung, Hye-Ran Hwang〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This article explores the development process of regulatory innovation during the stages of upgrading innovation based technology for late industrialized countries. Using three cases of complex products in the nuclear industry, with special reference to (South) Korea, we investigate the regulatory innovation and formation process between regulators and developers. Although exploratory, this study shows that when the technical characteristics of a product are similar to those of existing platforms, minor institutional innovation is settled easily. On the contrary, as the discontinuity of a product technology increases, it becomes more likely that the lock-in effect of existing institutional schemes will hinder innovation. This paper contributes to the technology upgrading literature by highlighting the considerable importance of institutional capabilities.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 14 March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Malgorzata Grzegorczyk〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This study examines the impact of cultural differences on the creation of social capital in technology transfer processes. The aim is to understand the influence of culture on relationships, particularly the structural, relational and cognitive dimensions of social capital created in relationships associated with university-industry links, specifically technology transfer (TT). The research builds on a culture-moderated social capital perspective; observing that the characteristics and usefulness of social capital are determined by cultural practices prevailing in social structures. The influence of culture on social capital in case studies of six American and ten Asian technology transfer offices and organizations involved in technology transfer has been investigated. Using university research technology transfer and commercialization as the centerpiece of the empirical work, we examine basic Hofstede's cultural characteristics and the way they influence TT practices in two different culture types. Our findings suggest cultures can influence creation and utilization of social capital in university-industry links. Culture can influence not only relationships with external stakeholders in technology transfer (industry, governmental bodies) but also internal relationships and management styles in TT offices (influences on organizational culture). We propose that the awareness of cultural characteristics and influences is important not only in cross-cultural technology transfer but also domestic operations. Using this awareness to build trust lies at the heart of interactions with internal and external stakeholders. The research results should be useful for entrepreneurs, universities and technology transfer officers in order to better understand the nature, and role, of culture-moderated social capital in technology transfer and to support effective processes for scientific research commercialization.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 20 July 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Melanie Wiener, Regina Gattringer, Franz Strehl〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Disruptive changes (e.g. new technologies, services, and business models) present a variety of opportunities and risks for companies. They can contribute significantly not only to economic success but also to greater sustainability. Nevertheless, it is not a trivial task for established companies to recognize the potential of disruptive changes and to implement innovations in time. In this context, foresight and openness are proposed as promising approaches. This paper investigates the collaborative open foresight approach for inspiring discontinuous and sustainability-oriented innovations. The results of a longitudinal case study involving two companies show that the participants especially value that collaborative open foresight (1) fosters out-of-the-box thinking (2) supports breaking away from path dependency, and (3) increases the potential of innovations. Most importantly, the joint discussion and analysis of future developments (4) help to generate new insights regarding the opportunities and risks of the disruptive changes identified as well as their potential for discontinuous and sustainability-oriented innovations. It was particularly noteworthy that both companies recognized a significant value-added of collaborative open foresight compared to their previous foresight projects, so far conducted individually, but only one of the two companies could transfer the project's outcome to innovation projects.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 30 June 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Huong Van Le, Min-ho Suh〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Startups are a rising trend among entrepreneurs regardless of age, educational background, and gender. However, given the rapid increase in the number of newly established startups, the percent of businesses that fail is not insignificant. One of the many reasons why startups fail is the difficulty of identifying a clear value proposition from the customer's perspective. This should be carefully considered. Hence, this research aims to analyze the information on Internet startup value propositions from the customer's perspective, during the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, to observe changing trends of value propositions and predict their development in the next decade as a reference for future startups. Overall, value propositions from the customer's perspective have gradually shifted over the last three decades. Several value propositions in particular, including privacy protection, security services, and legitimacy in trust, are receiving increasingly more attention from customers. From 2020 onwards, community and emotion will maintained sustainably and will continue to develop strongly. Above all, the value imparted by privacy protection and security services will remain a prime concern among the new generation of Internet startups.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 146〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Alice Mazzucchelli, Roberto Chierici, Tindara Abbate, Stefano Fontana〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In today's markets, innovation has been identified as a key driver of firms' competitive advantage and innovation capabilities and as a key explanatory variable for differences between firms in behavior and outcomes. Although the literature has explored innovation capabilities, typically from a firm-level perspective, little is known about how firms' innovation capabilities originate in lower-level entities and processes, namely in the microfoundations of innovation capabilities. To bridge this gap, the present research adopts a microfoundations perspective to propose a conceptual model that investigates whether and how individual characteristics for innovation (individual attention to detail, creativity, and openness) and individual-level knowledge sharing behaviors (individual motivation, control, ability, and engagement) affect firm-level strategic innovation capabilities. Drawing on data from 287 R&D employees and general managers operating within 11 firms/research centers belonging to a cross-border R&D partnership, the results of structural equation modeling (SEM) show the crucial role played by individual motivation in effective and frequent sharing of knowledge and by individual engagement in knowledge sharing activities. This research contributes to the existing body of knowledge on innovation capabilities and knowledge management and provides interesting insights for marketers.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 146〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Antoine Levesque, Robert C. Pietzcker, Gunnar Luderer〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉Limiting global warming below 1.5 °C requires rapid decarbonization of energy systems. Reductions of energy demand have an important role to play in a sustainable energy transition. Here we explore the extent to which the emergence of low energy consuming practices, encompassing new behaviors and the adoption of more efficient technologies, could contribute to lowering energy demand and thereby to reducing CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions.〈/p〉 〈p〉To this end, we design three detailed energy consumption profiles which could be adopted by individuals in current and future wealthy regions. To what extent does the setting of air conditioners to higher temperatures or the widespread use of efficient showerheads reduce the aggregate energy demand? We investigate the potential of new practices at the global level for 2050 and 2100.〈/p〉 〈p〉The adoption of new, energy saving practices could reduce global energy demand from buildings by up to 47% in 2050 and 61% in 2100 compared to a scenario following current trends. This strong reduction is primarily accounted for by changes in hot water usage, insulation of buildings and consumer choices in air conditioners and heat pumps. New behaviors and efficient technologies could make a significant long-term contribution to reducing buildings' energy demand, and thus facilitate the achieval of stringent climate change mitigation targets while limiting the adverse sustainability impacts from the energy supply system.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 14 June 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Gökçen Arkalı Olcay, M. Atilla Öner, Ali Bahadır Olcay〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Company mergers are complex where several firm-specific and contextual factors interact with each other impacting the outcome of the process. Although many firms merge with or acquire others to increase the value of their firms, have more market power and gain more ability to negotiate with suppliers or customers, most of mergers and acquisitions result in failures. Despite the poor performances, firms continue to merge and acquire. The existing literature on the other hand lacks in providing a robust theory to the issue of poor post-merger performance. This study thus responds to exploring the issue of high failure rates in mergers and acquisitions in an entirely different way. As the first output of a research programme on the conceptual, theoretical and empirical issues in merger and acquisitions research, we conceptualize the loss of performance or exergy in mergers and acquisitions using thermodynamic analysis of the mixing process in physical systems. Three propositions are developed that conceptualize the ideal conditions for mergers in terms of 〈em〉firm size〈/em〉, 〈em〉relatedness between the merging firms〈/em〉 and 〈em〉the ambient states〈/em〉. The 〈em〉exergy loss〈/em〉 due to merging increases with the increasing levels of 〈em〉strategic or cultural incompatibility〈/em〉 between the two firms. When the sizes of two firms differ, it is preferable for the larger firm to have 〈em〉higher knowledge base〈/em〉 than the smaller firm. Lastly, the 〈em〉knowledge intensity of the country〈/em〉 that the merging takes place as well as the 〈em〉relative knowledge base〈/em〉 of the merging firms do interact and change the post-merger performance significantly.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: July 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 144〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Shuchih Ernest Chang, Yi-Chian Chen, Ming-Fang Lu〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The emergence of blockchain technology has created a number of potential innovations in handling business activities across various industries. However, few studies discuss the potential influence of blockchain technology from a business process re-engineering perspective. This study focuses on the feasibility and inceptive application of supply chain processes. We proposed a blockchain-based framework along with the use of an affiliated technology, i.e., smart contracts, to derive the feasible benefits of the supply chain process design. Through the illustrative design of an integrated process, we provide an achievable use case of the disintermediation of business processes via a conceptual, shared information ledger. This ledger not only facilitates the sharing of tracking information but also promotes a network for multilateral collaboration among supply chain members. The pursuit of transparency and accountability across supply chain processes can potentially influence decentralization and automation. A comparative analysis of the current and proposed frameworks is conducted to support the core reasoning of this study. Additionally, future implications on managerial practice and academic research are explored to provide pervasive suggestions for similar attempts in different sectors. We conclude with an evaluation of the potential influence of blockchain technology on supply chain management.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 22 June 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Gaurav Gupta, Indranil Bose〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Pioneering digital firms are often built on novel business models that differentiate them from their competition. Striving for the right business model is a challenge for entrepreneurs. In their digital endeavors, firms often experiment with multiple business models before converging on to a specific, focused model that they choose to pursue. An intriguing question in this domain is how do digital market pioneers gain strategic knowledge for the transformation of their business models? We develop an integrative framework that identifies strategic learning and its impact on the digital model adopted by the firm, as a core driver for business model transformation. We examine this framework through a case study of Wishberry, a crowdfunding startup in India that was the pioneer in this domain in India. Its active scanning of the business environment led to strategic learnings that helped transform its business model which was at the core of its sustained market advantages. The insights for this study, which are primarily focused on digital entrepreneurship, extend the theoretical frameworks of strategic learning to the context of market pioneers. The learnings from this study will help entrepreneurs design agile business models that are reactive to market needs.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 18 June 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yi Zhang, Ying Huang, Alan L. Porter, Guangquan Zhang, Jie Lu〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉As one of the most impactful emerging technologies, big data analytics and its related applications are powering the development of information technologies and are significantly shaping thinking and behavior in today's interconnected world. Exploring the technological evolution of big data research is an effective way to enhance technology management and create value for research and development strategies for both government and industry. This paper uses a learning-enhanced bibliometric study to discover interactions in big data research by detecting and visualizing its evolutionary pathways. Concentrating on a set of 5840 articles derived from Web of Science covering the period between 2000 and 2015, text mining and bibliometric techniques are combined to profile the hotspots in big data research and its core constituents. A learning process is used to enhance the ability to identify the interactive relationships between topics in sequential time slices, revealing technological evolution and death. The outputs include a landscape of interactions within big data research from 2000 to 2015 with a detailed map of the evolutionary pathways of specific technologies. Empirical insights for related studies in science policy, innovation management, and entrepreneurship are also provided.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 15 June 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Eva Delacroix, Béatrice Parguel, Florence Benoit-Moreau〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Digital entrepreneurs are usually presented as young, urban, well-educated individuals working for innovative start-ups. In sharp contrast with this “hipster” view, this research identifies digital subsistence entrepreneurs as a new type of entrepreneurs that recently appeared in developed countries. To do so, it investigates buy-and-sell activities on Facebook groups using a multi-method approach involving in-depth interviews, netnography, and participatory observation. The findings indicate that digital subsistence entrepreneurs' activities pertain to survival entrepreneurship rather than transformative entrepreneurship. Nonetheless, they satisfy more than purely financial needs, also providing hedonic (spending time with family, creating), relational (meeting new people) and symbolic benefits (raising self-esteem, redefining roles at home and in society). This research also shows that subsistence entrepreneurs' rebirth in developed countries is founded on the structural, cognitive and relational forms of social capital that are grounded in peer-to-peer platforms digital features. It thus offers interesting contributions and implications for public policy makers engaged in the regulation of the sharing economy.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 23 June 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Andrea Geissinger, Christofer Laurell, Christian Sandström〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The sharing economy can be regarded as a discontinuous innovation that creates increased abundance throughout society. Extant literature on the sharing economy has been predominantly concerned with Uber and Airbnb. As little is known about where the sharing economy is gaining momentum beyond transportation and accommodation, the purpose of this paper is to map in what sectors of the economy it is perceived to gain traction. Drawing on data from social and traditional media in Sweden, we identify a long tail of 17 sectors and 47 subsectors in which a total of 165 unique sharing-economy actors operate, including sectors such as on-demand services, fashion and clothing, and food delivery. Our findings therefore point at the expanding scope of the sharing economy and relatedly, we derive a set of implications for firms.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 18 June 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jonathan Köhler, Bruno Turnheim, Mike Hodson〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉The analysis addresses two critical gaps in the literature on low-carbon mobility transitions: 1) scenarios of low-carbon mobility concentrate on technological substitution and have only a limited representation of niche-regime interactions and behavioural change, and 2) detailed qualitative analysis of socio-technical transitions dynamics have limited utility in developing future projections. It applies the Multi-Level Perspective on transitions, combining case studies of mobility niches in the Netherlands with simulations of transitions pathways using the MATISSE model, by applying the bridging approach proposed by Turnheim et al. (2015a). The iterative, combined qualitative case study and quantitative simulation approach develops transition pathways including both behavioural and technological change.〈/p〉 〈p〉The results show that both technological substitution to low carbon cars or a reconfiguration pathway away from car ownership to mobility lifestyles based on new public transport or cycling and walking for local trips are possible. However, while there is empirical evidence for the initial stage of a technological substitution to battery electric vehicles, transitions away from car ownership as the dominant mobility lifestyle have to overcome an established regime and will require major changes in culture and behaviour as well as support for new priorities in the institutions of transport planning.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 12 June 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jie Sheng, Joseph Amankwah-Amoah, Xiaojun Wang〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Although big data, big data analytics (BDA) and business intelligence have attracted growing attention of both academics and practitioners, a lack of clarity persists about how BDA has been applied in business and management domains. In reflecting on Professor Ayre's contributions, we want to extend his ideas on technological change by incorporating the discourses around big data, BDA and business intelligence. With this in mind, we integrate the burgeoning but disjointed streams of research on big data, BDA and business intelligence to develop unified frameworks. Our review takes on both technical and managerial perspectives to explore the complex nature of big data, techniques in big data analytics and utilisation of big data in business and management community. The advanced analytics techniques appear pivotal in bridging big data and business intelligence. The study of advanced analytics techniques and their applications in big data analytics led to identification of promising avenues for future research.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 12 June 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Fred Phillips〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 20 June 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Shivam Gupta, Haozhe Chen, Benjamin T. Hazen, Sarabjot Kaur, Ernesto D.R. Santibañez Gonzalez〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The business concept of the circular economy (CE) has gained significant momentum among practitioners and researchers alike. However, successful adoption and implementation of this paradigm of managing business remains a challenge. In this article, we build a case for utilizing big data analytics (BDA) as a fundamental basis for informed and data driven decision making in supply chain networks supporting CE. We view this from a stakeholder perspective and argue that a collaborative association among all supply chain members can positively affect CE implementation. We propose a model highlighting the facilitating role of big data analytics for achieving shared sustainability goals. The model is based on integrating thematic categories coming out of 10 semi-structured interviews with key position holders in industry. We argue that mutual support and coordination driven by a stakeholder perspective coupled with holistic information processing and sharing along the entire supply chain network can effectively create a basis for achieving the triple bottom line of economic, ecological and social benefits. The proposed model is useful for managers in that it provides a reference point for aligning activities with the circular economy paradigm. The conceptual model provides a theoretical basis for future empirical research in this domain.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 30 May 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Xiao Zhou, Lu Huang, Alan Porter, Jose M. Vicente-Gomila〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉Accurately evaluating opportunities in new and emerging science and technologies is a growing concern. This study proposes an integrated framework for identifying a range of potential innovation pathways and commercial applications for solid lipid nanoparticles – one particularly promising contender within the field of nano-enabled drug delivery. Several text mining techniques – term clumping, SAO technique, and net effect analysis – as well as technology roadmapping, are combined with expert judgment to identify the main areas of R&D in this field, and to track their evolution over time. Through analysis, data from multiple sources, including research publications, patents, and commercial press, reveal possible future applications and commercialization opportunities for this emerging technology. We find that research is moving away from materials and delivery outcomes toward clinical applications. The most promising markets are pharmaceuticals and cosmetics; however, the “time-to-market” is much shorter for cosmetics than it is for pharmaceuticals.〈/p〉 〈p〉The most significant contributions of this paper have been highlighted as follows. One innovation is extracting the intelligence from three kinds of data sources after in-depth considering their characteristics and matching with the features of different technology development stages to identify innovative research topics. The second one is combining SAO technique with net effect analysis to identify what the evolutionary links between research topics are, and then to use TRM to visualize the evolution of the main areas of R&D over time.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 12 June 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Elena Casprini, Alberto Di Minin, Andrea Paraboschi〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This study explores how an online market platform, BlaBlaCar, has been able to organize the nascent market of inter-city shared mobility. Data were gathered via three in-depth interviews with BlaBlaCar's managers, more than two hundred newspaper articles and other archival information. Using an inductive qualitative approach, the case analysis reveals that in claiming, demarcating and controlling the market, BlaBlaCar has adopted a unique course of action while also leveraging on specific social media functional building blocks for creating, extending and locking-in the community of its users. The study concludes with implications for both management theory and practice.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 20 June 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Andrea Szalavetz〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉This paper investigates whether advanced manufacturing technologies (AMT) can modify the patterns of upgrading in manufacturing subsidiaries operating in FDI hosting factory economies. Does the digital transformation of local manufacturing engender the accumulation of local technological and R&D capabilities, or the beneficial impact of AMT remains confined to production capability?〈/p〉 〈p〉Analysis is based on primary data collected through in-depth interviews with a sample of high-flying manufacturing subsidiaries in Hungary, complemented with interviews with AMT providers.〈/p〉 〈p〉We find that AMT have spectacularly improved all components of production capability. AMT redefined the boundaries of production activities and incited a fusion of selected technological activities in production activities. AMT deployment has automated selected tacit knowledge-intensive technological activities, making the related subsidiary-level capabilities obsolete. Conversely, other local technological activities have become more knowledge-intensive than before.〈/p〉 〈p〉AMT propelled the upgrading of subsidiary-level R&D capabilities by supporting specific R&D activities and by acting as enabler of innovation collaboration. AMT created an integrated development environment and thus reduced the risks related to the decentralisation of R&D. Altogether, AMT adoption contributed to subsidiary R&D capability becoming ‘revealed’ and further upgraded through learning by doing.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 19 June 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Marc König, Christina Ungerer, Guido Baltes, Orestis Terzidis〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The business model canvas (BMC) and the lean start-up manifesto (LSM) have been changing both the entrepreneurial education and, on the practical side, the mindset in setting up innovative ventures since the burst of the dot-com bubble. However, few empirical insights on the business model implementation patterns that distinguish between digital and non-digital innovative ventures exist. Connecting practical management tools to network theory as well as to the theory of organizational learning, this paper investigates evolution patterns of digital and non-digital business models out of the deal flow of an innovation intermediary. For this purpose, a multi-dimensional quantitative content analysis research design is applied to 242 ventures' business plans. The measured strength of transaction relations to customers, suppliers, people, and financiers has been combined with performance indicators of the sampled ventures. The results indicate that in order to succeed, digital ventures iterate their business on the market early and search for investment afterwards. Contrariwise, non-digital ventures already need financial investments in the early stages to set up a product ready to be tested on the market. In both groups we found strong evidence that specific evolutionary patterns relate to higher rates of success.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 8 April 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Riccardo Campa, Konrad Szocik, Martin Braddock〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In this article we explore a possible scenario of space colonization and its consequences for planet Earth. We argue that in the short term space colonization will take place, but not in the form often presented in scientific and science fiction literature. Space colonies will be fully automated. There are three main reasons to believe that this is the most plausible scenario: 1) space mining is very profitable; 2) humans cannot survive for long periods of time in outer space limiting the prospects for human space colonization (HSC), and 3) automation is already a leading trend on Earth. Crewed missions will have an ancillary function, while machines or human/machine avatars will ‘inhabit’ other celestial bodies, in order to pursue economic enterprises and progress scientific discovery. We also propose some considerations on the speculative hypothesis, elaborated by a few leading futurists, that the development of machine-based learning Artificial Intelligence would lead to the so-called Singularity. In relation to this scenario, we argue that fully automated space colonization (FASC) could be a solution to prevent unwanted side effects of the Singularity, such as competition for resources between humankind and a hostile Artificial Intelligence.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 5 April 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Robert G. Aykroyd, Víctor Leiva, Fabrizio Ruggeri〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Control charts are one of the principal tools to monitor dynamic processes with the aim of rapid identification of changes in the behaviour of these processes. Such changes are usually associated with a move from an 〈em〉in-control〈/em〉 condition to an 〈em〉out-of-control〈/em〉 condition. The paper briefly reviews the historical origins and includes examples of recent developments, focussing on their use in fields different from the industrial applications in which they were initially derived and often employed. It also focusses on cases which depart from the commonly used Gaussian assumption and then considers potential effects of the 〈em〉big data〈/em〉 revolution on future uses. A bibliometric analysis is also presented to identify distinct groups of research themes, including emerging and underdeveloped areas, which are hence potential topics for future research.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 4 April 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Slavo Radosevic, Dirk Meissner, Iciar Dominguez Lacasa, Jutta Günther〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: June 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 143〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Cristian Mejía, Yuya Kajikawa〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Robotics is a growing academic field that has received extensive social attention, where both promising and contested opinions can be found with regard to its applications. To understand commonalities and differences between social expectations and academic research, we analyzed the relationship between sentiment polarity appearing in news articles and topical coverage of academic publications. We found that news discourse is shifting from a prevailing positive view towards a more neutral stance in recent years. However, the sentiment and levels of attention vary widely depending on the specific topic being covered. When topics in the news are compared to those in academic articles, news coverage leans towards applied academic research. Also, highly similar topics in both news and academic publishing tend to appear earlier as a social discussion when expressing a positive sentiment. We discuss these findings in the contexts of science communication and transdisciplinary research.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 146〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Riikka Niemelä, Minna Pikkarainen, Mari Ervasti, Jarmo Reponen〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈h6〉Purpose〈/h6〉 〈p〉Disruptive connected health technologies, or digitalization, are suggested to tackle the healthcare challenges and transform traditional care models. In Finland, the transformation is manifested by the development of various digital hospitals and citizen-centric care models that foster self-care by utilizing connected health technologies. In this paper we introduce qualitative research that uses social practice theory in order to understand how connected health technologies shape a pediatric day surgery practice in future digital hospitals. Major improvement needs were identified to center on 〈em〉discursive〈/em〉 actions (i.e., communication that occurs between health professionals and patients), since hospital IT systems, data exchange, and internal and external communication were found to not support pediatric surgery 〈em〉practice〈/em〉 as expected. To improve the current situation, we found out that there is a need to change the patient role to be more active, creating data that health professionals could use through their own patient record systems. Connected health solutions allow this type of interaction between things (i.e., communication through mobile apps, medical devices, etc.) and agents (i.e., health professionals). There is an urgent need to improve communication channels such as Chat, WhatsApp, and mobile applications that gather all necessary information and instructions from patients before and after the surgery. However, these solutions cannot be co-created separately from the clinical decision systems that allow discursive actions among healthcare professionals. These solutions, e.g. mobile applications designed to support patients going through the surgery practice, will also significantly impact and change pediatric surgery practice at hospitals.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 146〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Hesham F. Maghrabie, Yvan Beauregard, Andrea Schiffauerova〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In complex systems, decision makers encounter uncertainty from various sources. In this paper, a new hybrid grey-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach is proposed to optimize the evaluation space in decision problems that are subject to subjective and objective uncertainty over different types of interrelated criteria. The four-phase methodology begins with the formulation of a decision problem through the analysis of the system of concern, its functionality, and substantial connections among evaluation criteria. The second phase involves the development of grey linguistic scales to handle the uncertainty of human judgements. The third phase integrates the grey linguistic scale, concepts of grey systems theory, and principles of Analytical Network Process to prioritize criteria. Finally, to evaluate and rank alternatives in such a complex setting, Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation II is extended using a grey linguistic scale to articulate subjective uncertainty, grey numbers to account for objective uncertainty, grey operating rules to normalize evaluation measures, and the proposed approach of prioritizing evaluation criteria to establish relative preferences. To demonstrate the viability of the methodology, a case study is presented, in which a strategic decision is made within the context of innovation. To validate the methodology, a comparative analysis is provided.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 145〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Xiang Yu, Ben Zhang〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper aims to propose a new kind of patent roadmaps, including a roadmapping method and application directions. The patent roadmap is used to analyze patent competition and develop a patent strategy. In the patent roadmap, patent analysis, patent maps and a generic technology roadmap are used. By using these three methods in combination, two concepts, patent information and patent strategies, are linked. Further, the patent roadmap provides theoretical and informational support for companies, allowing them to learn about the current patent competition situation, and perform corresponding patent layout planning. Compared to previous research on technology and patent roadmaps, this study illustrates the patent competition situation in some industries, and provides a new method for patent strategy planning and its applications. In a case study, this paper presents the patent roadmap of the high-speed railway track (HSRT) industry, specifying the whole roadmapping process and an application in patent planning. Finally, conclusions are drawn that, in applications, the proposed patent roadmap not only plays an important role in helping companies to find new technology opportunities, avoiding duplicate R&D investments, preventing patent infringement risks, and so on, but also has important significance for guiding the overall industry development.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 145〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Boelie Elzen, Bram Bos〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper discusses an approach to develop new ‘integrally sustainable’ animal production systems and stimulate their uptake in practice. It consists of a design approach called RIO, and a set of ‘anchoring’ activities to stimulate their uptake in niches and in the regime. In the period 2001–2015 we have applied the approach in various animal production sectors, and adapted and improved it while doing. The general aim of the paper is to assess the applicability of the RIO/anchoring approach to induce sustainability transitions. We conclude that RIO is especially suited for areas characterized by a ‘heterogeneous’ set of sustainability challenges (in our case, environmental burden, animal welfare, public acceptance, profitability). A RIO approach can then render ‘integrally sustainable’ alternatives that generate wide interest in the regime. Anchoring activities can successfully stimulate a variety of initial changes. This does not suffice, however, and a conducive institutional environment is key to facilitate the initial uptake of the novel systems. With relatively simple and cheap financial instruments, governments can help to create such a conducive environment.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 145〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Kyoko Ohta〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This study investigates the applicability of the multi-level perspective (MLP) in explaining regime transitions in elderly care policy in Japan. By combining existing transition theories with the particular Japanese context, further insight is given on the impact of various interactions in transforming niche projects into policy objectives and regime shifts. For these purposes, detailed process on the national long-term care insurance policy and the impact of the local policy for innovative elderly care are presented. The case study focuses on the impact of national subsidy (and particularly the project proposal grant) on the scaling up of niche policy by combining interests of both the local municipality and the central bureaucrat structures. Furthermore, the hybrid actors from local municipality and NPOs are also instrumental in bridging different levels of the government, as well as different niche sectors. This paper offers insight into the complexity of policy-making processes and the specific role that bottom-up projects play in shifting regimes that dominate policy agendas of the particular welfare state (Japan) by penetrating the top-down policy implementation process. This indicates the further studies of the policy dimension of the MLP in various types of welfare state are needed to understand the welfare transition in depth.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 146〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jianguo Xu, Lixiang Guo, Jiang Jiang, Bingfeng Ge, Mengjun Li〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉It is imperative and arduous to acquire product and business intelligence of global technical market. In this paper, a deep learning methodology is proposed to automatically extract and discover vital technical information from large-scale news dataset. More specifically, six kinds of technical elements are first defined to provide the concrete syntax information. Next, the CRF-BiLSTM approach is used to automatically extract technical entities, in which a conditional random field (CRF) layer is added on top of bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) layer. Then, three indicators including timeliness, influence and innovativeness are designed to evaluate the value of intelligence comprehensively. Finally, as a case study, technical news on three military-related websites is utilized to illustrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the foregoing methodology with the result of 80.82 (F-score) in comparison to four other models. In more detail, data on unmanned systems are extracted to summarize the state-of-the-art, and track up-to-the-minute innovations and developments in this field.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 146〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Peijie Wang, Fan Li〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉We study China's organization and governance of innovation in this paper from a policy foresight perspective. With its experience of planning systems, China resorts to state intervention in economic and social activities, which profoundly includes research and innovation. The government organizes and governs a vast national science and technology system, most of which is in the state sector, demonstrating the importance and relevance of its research and innovation policy. In this study, 343 innovation policy items, collected in our sample for the period 1990 and 2013, have been scrutinized in a three dimension analytical framework for policy instruments, objectives and implementation. We then abstract and conceptualize the results and findings arrived at the study. Targeted and general purpose policy instruments are categorized. Patterns have emerged revealing the linkages between the targeted policy instruments and the policy objectives. The results and findings based conceptualization contributes to innovate the thinking in innovation policy configuration to advance national innovation constructs.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 146〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Leire Labaka, Patricia Maraña, Raquel Giménez, Josune Hernantes〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉A growing majority of the world's population lives in cities, and the concentration of people and critical services in cities increases their exposure to acute shocks and long-term stresses. Therefore, building resilient cities that are able to resist and absorb threats and are capable of adapting to and recovering from shocks and stresses is vital for the wellbeing of society. Although the literature offers several studies on how city resilience can be improved, operationalizing resilience is still a challenge. This article describes the different phases of the co-creation process followed in the development of a maturity model that can guide cities in assessing and future improving their resilience level. This co-creation process was conducted using different methodologies involving an interdisciplinary group of international experts who contributed their knowledge and experience to the development process of the maturity model. The outcome of this process is the final version of a maturity model that operationalizes the steps that should be taken to build city resilience.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 146〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Kerui Du, Pengzhen Li, Zheming Yan〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper investigates the impact of green technology innovations on carbon dioxide (CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉) emissions based on a data panel covering 71 economies from 1996 to 2012. Specifically, we examine whether the level of income matters for the effect of green technology innovations. It is found that the impact of green technology innovations exists a single threshold effect regarding the income level. Specifically, green technology innovations do not significantly contribute to reducing CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions for the economies whose income levels are below the threshold while the mitigation effect becomes significant for those whose income levels surpass the threshold. But the transition of regime occurs at an extremely high-income level. In addition, we find that the relationship between per capita CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions and per capita GDP is inverted U-shaped, and urbanization level, industrial structure, trade openness, and energy consumption structure also significantly affect CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions. Finally, this paper suggests that mechanism innovations should be implemented to reduce the diffusion cost of green technology in undeveloped economies.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: June 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 143〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Ravi Shankar, Devendra Kumar Pathak, Devendra Choudhary〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The growing concern for the environment and imperative need for technology-enabled energy efficient freight transportation have led to the development of dedicated freight corridors (DFCs) in many countries like Germany, Netherlands, Austria, and India. The rapid expansion of DFCs is needed to improve supply chain efficiency. DFCs have potential to decongest existing rail networks, reduce the modal share of road freight transportation, and decarbonize freight transport sector. This study attempts to use transition management theory for identifying enablers of DFC for the transition from road to rail freight transportation. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) is employed to confirm the three-level transition management framework for these enablers. This paper also proposes an eight-level hierarchical total interpretive structural modeling (TISM) based model for explicating the inter-relationships among the enablers of DFC to decarbonize freight transportation and achieve sustainability in the freight transport sector. Eventually, this paper provides empirical evidence to identify and validate the enablers of DFC through the lens of transition management theory. This paper also highlights the role of ‘adoption of advanced technologies’ to achieve sustainability in freight transportation. The outcomes of this study also facilitate policy-makers in understanding and managing the key enablers of DFCs to decarbonize freight transport sector.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 145〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yohei Yamaguchi〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper presents a review of historical changes in residential energy demand, everyday practices and related societal systems in Japan by using an analytical framework designed based on social theories of practice. The purpose was to understand the overall societal structure that determines energy demand and its trajectories. The review addressed mutual relationships between 1) everyday practices and societal systems that have shaped everyday practices, 2) those of life course practices, which are social activities performed by individuals over life time span, such as marriage, parenting and occupation, 3) everyday and life course practices, and 4) societal elements that have shaped everyday and life course practices. Thus, residential energy demand is an outcome of dynamics in the complex system constituted by these practices and respective societal systems. Dynamics in each element and the mutual relationships account for continuous changes in everyday practices and residential energy demand. Based on the overall structure and its trajectories, several energy management implications were derived. The framework also allows the welfare system to be designated as a key support of life course and everyday practices. This application shows that its ongoing transition has a significant impact on household practices and energy demand.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 145〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): M. Del Giudice, V. Scuotto, A. Garcia-Perez, A. Messeni Petruzzelli〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉The convergence of technology upgrading such as virtual reality, augmented reality, and digital and social networking platforms provides new directions and solutions for companies. The proposed research seeks to capitalise on and critically interrogate such convergence, how it works and the challenges connectivity brings for internal local life and external global markets of small to medium enterprises (SMEs). SMEs have been considered the most innovative oriented businesses in developed countries even in emerging markets acting as pioneer in the digital transformational word.〈/p〉 〈p〉It has been widely recognised that local SMEs can get advantages from multinational enterprises spillover. However, studies on the horizontal technology spillover between SMEs are scarce. In fact, there is a need to explore the effect of horizontal technology spillover on SMEs for international growth. Therefore, the research offers quantitative metrics such as technology upgrading, knowledge spillover, and technology transfer to explore this effect in the Chinese market. Especially, the empirical research is conducted on a sample of 80 SMEs in Beijing from technology – intensive industry. It critically interrogates how digital, social and transformational technologies impacts SMEs' competitiveness to produce points of digital convergence that connect, co-create and drive local to international growth via structural equation modelling.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 145〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Frans Sengers, Anna J. Wieczorek, Rob Raven〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This review paper systematically queries the Sustainability Transitions literature to unpack the concept of ‘experimentation’. We define an experiment as an inclusive, practice-based and challenge-led initiative, which is designed to promote system innovation through social learning under conditions of uncertainty and ambiguity. A distinction is made between various terms (niche experiments, bounded socio-technical experiments, transition experiments, sustainability experiments and grassroots experiments), each with their own theoretical backgrounds and discursive and empirical focal points. Observed patterns and trends in the literature are discussed, as well as promising lines of enquiry for further exploration of- and a reflection on experimenting for sustainability transitions in the context of the welfare state.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 145〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Eefje Cuppen, Udo Pesch, Sanne Remmerswaal, Mattijs Taanman〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Few people disagree on the need for sustainable development, but ideas about what it exactly means and how to pursue it diverge considerably. Although such normative conflicts are key to sustainability transitions, attention to such conflicts is lacking in transition studies. In this paper we understand societal conflict as an informal assessment of sustainable transition pathways with the potential for learning about normative ideas about the direction, speed and means of transitions. We analyse the Dutch societal conflict on the plans for shale gas exploration between 2010 and 2013, based on a media-analysis and interviews, in order to identify the normative conflicts and to find out to which extent these normative conflicts resulted in higher-order learning. The two main normative conflicts in the case firstly concern the role of gas in the energy transition, and secondly the balance between local and national interests in defining the public interest. With that, the societal conflict challenges two key elements of the Dutch welfare state. We conclude that there has been higher-order learning as regards the first conflict, but not as regards the second.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 145〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Gabriela Dutrénit, José Miguel Natera, Martín Puchet Anyul, Alexandre O. Vera-Cruz〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The study of technological capability accumulation processes (TCA) for developing countries is long-standing. The studies tend to adopt a narrow perspective to science, technology and innovation and their policies, which do not seem to be sufficient to understand TCA in countries that face the middle-income trap. This adds to the limited metrics we have to measure TCA. This paper argues that it is necessary to frame the TCA processes at national levels, including the techno-economic and the socio-political spheres (TES and SPS). It is argued that countries' evolutionary trajectory combines these spheres differently and results in different development profiles. This is expected to have an impact on their TCA. The objective is to identify and analyse development profiles of Latin American countries (in terms of TES and SPS), and discuss it relationship with the characteristics of TCA at the firm level. This research departures from descriptive statistics based on Innovation Surveys for the TCA analysis at the firm and country level, and combines different steps and tools to asses country development profiles: (i) a long-term analysis (1980–2010) to verify the existence of cointegration between TES and SPS; and (ii) the identification and estimation of long run paths that determine three different country profiles. Finally, we outline some policy recommendations.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 145〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): 〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 146〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Shelly Pandey, P. Vigneswara Ilavarasan〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Based on an ethnographic study of Afghan Sikh refugees in New Delhi, India, the present paper explores the role of information and communication technologies (ICTs), especially social media, in their lives and practices to survive after the forced migration. The unique identity of being Afghan Sikhs in India is largely unknown, as the notion of Afghans is attached to the Muslims and Sikhs to the Indians. The extant knowledge on literature on their narratives of forced migration and struggles of re-settlement is inadequate. The present paper employs the concept of ‘capital’ by Bourdieu to argue that ICTs enable refugees to gain different forms of capital in their journey of survival in a new country post forced migration. The paper highlights the importance of ICTs being equal to the physical infrastructure for the refugees. The digital practices provide them with a collectively owned capital in the form of relevant information and experiences of being refugees. The visibility enabled by the ICTs has contributed to their social, economic and symbolic capitals.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: July 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 144〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Liang Mei, Tao Zhang, Jin Chen〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In this paper, we study the effects of inter-firm linkages on the open innovation of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from an innovation ecosystem perspective. Based on resource dependence theory and the bipartite structure of business ecosystems, we divide a SME's external linkages with its partners in an innovation ecosystem into two types (i.e. the 〈u〉L〈/u〉inkages of a SME with its 〈u〉P〈/u〉rominent 〈u〉O〈/u〉rganizations (LPO) and the 〈u〉L〈/u〉inkages of the SME with its 〈u〉S〈/u〉ervice 〈u〉I〈/u〉ntermediaries (LSI)). We then examine the relationships between LPO (and LSI) and the SME's innovation performance and analyze the influences of the SME's absorptive capacity on the two relationships. Research results support a positive relationship between LPO and SMEs' innovation performance, and a positive relationship between LSI and SMEs' innovation performance and a positive relationship between LSI and LPO. In addition, research results show that when measured by R&D intensity, SMEs' absorptive capacity weakens the positive effects of LPO (and LSI) on SMEs' innovation performance, whereas when measured by IT adoption, SMEs' absorptive capacity strengthens the two positive relationships. Relevant theoretical and managerial contributions are discussed.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉