ALBERT

Description: The impact of dust on a six-day pulsation of the West African heat low (WAHL) in summertime (14–20 July 2006) is investigated, with convective rainfall and dust bursts being observed over the Sahel at the beginning and end of the episode. Three Meso-NH simulations were designed which differed in their dust representation. All the simulations capture the variation in the WAHL intensity well, including the simulation without any dust effects. This shows the primary role of large-scale forcing on the WAHL pulsation. In spite of additional daytime heating and night-time cooling effects over the Sahara, the simulation with dust climatology resembles the simulation without any dust effects. In contrast, the simulation using a prognostic dust scheme enhances alternating northward advection of warm and dry air and southward advection of cold and wet air associated with the propagation of an African easterly wave, leading to a strengthening of the WAHL variabilities. This study highlights two effects of dust on the WAHL over the Sahara: a so-called direct effect associated with dust radiative heating, which increases the WAHL thickness, and a so-called indirect effect that intensifies both the African easterly jet and a related African easterly wave. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: The Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget Intercomparison of Longwave and Shortwave radiation (GERBILS) was an observational field experiment over North Africa during June 2007. The campaign involved 10 flights by the FAAM BAe-146 research aircraft over southwestern parts of the Sahara Desert and coastal stretches of the Atlantic Ocean. Objectives of the GERBILS campaign included characterisation of mineral dust geographic distribution and physical and optical properties, assessment of the impact upon radiation, validation of satellite remote sensing retrievals, and validation of numerical weather prediction model forecasts of aerosol optical depths (AODs) and size distributions. We provide the motivation behind GERBILS and the experimental design and report the progress made in each of the objectives. We show that mineral dust in the region is relatively non-absorbing (mean single scattering albedo at 550 nm of 0.97) owing to the relatively small fraction of iron oxides present (1–3%), and that detailed spectral radiances are most accurately modelled using irregularly shaped particles. Satellite retrievals over bright desert surfaces are challenging owing to the lack of spectral contrast between the dust and the underlying surface. However, new techniques have been developed which are shown to be in relatively good agreement with AERONET estimates of AOD and with each other. This encouraging result enables relatively robust validation of numerical models which treat the production, transport, and deposition of mineral dust. The dust models themselves are able to represent large-scale synoptically driven dust events to a reasonable degree, but some deficiencies remain both in the Sahara and over the Sahelian region, where cold pool outflow from convective cells associated with the intertropical convergence zone can lead to significant dust production. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Description: We studied the use of IASI data to improve the forecasts of extreme weather events in the Arctic region. For this purpose, the HARMONIE/Norway regional model was used. A set of 366 IASI channels was initially chosen from the ECMWF archived database. Active channels showing the best fit with the analysis system were selected by applying a multi-step monitoring technique. The IASI data were assimilated together with most of the available conventional and operational satellite observations using a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system. Four experiments with cyclic assimilations and subsequent 48-hour forecasts were performed during the IPY-THORPEX campaign period to evaluate the impact of the IASI data and the campaign observations on the hydrostatic HARMONIE/Norway analyses and forecasts. The assessment of the degrees of freedom for signals on the analysis showed that incorporating the IASI data in the assimilation system improved the contribution of the other observations. The utilization of an energy norm-based approach proved the sensitivity of the forecasts to the IASI channels in cases dominated by dynamic instabilities leading to quickly developing weather systems like, for example, polar lows. Comparison of the HARMONIE/Norway forecasts against independent observations and the ECMWF analyses showed a clear positive impact of the IASI data on geopotential fields in mid-troposphere and in the troposphere in general, respectively. We found small but significant positive impact on the temperature and humidity in the lower troposphere. A case-study showed positive impact of IASI radiances on the analysis and forecasts of a polar low. The impact on the forecasts lasted up to 24 hours when extra in situ campaign data were excluded from the analysis, and up to 36 hours when the campaign data were assimilated together with the IASI radiances. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Extreme mesoscale weather in the Arctic region consists mainly of cases with shallow fronts that often form in the vicinity of the ice-edge and intense storms called polar lows. This article describes high-resolution numerical simulations of a severe weather event that occurred on 1 March 2008 over the Barents Sea. The event was recorded during the IPY–THORPEX field experiments carried out during February and March 2008. The numerical simulations indicated the formation of a low-pressure system over the Barents Sea on 29 February 2008 due to baroclinic instability. On 1 March, the surface low moved onto the sea-ice around Spitsbergen and decayed later on. The conditions that prevailed before the dissipation of the surface low were favourable for the formation of a polar low. Two experiments were performed to test the possibilities of triggering a polar low through certain modifications to the surface conditions. In the first experiment, the sea-ice around Spitsbergen was removed. No polar low developed in this case, since the static stability was too high. In the second experiment, an attempt to reduce the static stability was made by raising the sea-surface temperature by 5 K. The surface low persisted over the Barents Sea area due to the increased surface heating and led to a strong outbreak of Arctic air over the Norwegian Sea on 2 March. The Arctic-air outbreak formed a sharp baroclinic zone which was absent in the control simulation. A secondary mesoscale low was triggered near the baroclinic zone over the Norwegian Sea, which grew into an intense polar low with surface winds reaching hurricane force. Formation of the polar low was due to baroclinic instability, whereas convective instability was important during the growth of the low. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ground-based radar observations at three distinct geographical locations in West Africa along a common latitudinal band (Niamey, Niger (continental), Kawsara, Senegal (coastal), and Praia, Republic of Cape Verde (maritime)) are analyzed to determine convective system characteristics in each domain during a 29-day period in 2006. Ancillary datasets provided by the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) and NASA-AMMA (NAMMA) field campaigns are also used to place the radar observations in context. Results show that the total precipitation is dominated by propagating mesoscale convective systems. Convective characteristics vary according to environmental properties, such as vertical shear, CAPE, and the degree of synoptic forcing. Data are bifurcated based on the presence or absence of African easterly waves. In general, African easterly waves appear to enhance mesoscale convective system strength characteristics (e.g. total precipitation and vertical reflectivity profiles) at the inland and maritime sites. The wave regime also resulted in an increased population of the largest observed mesoscale convective systems observed near the coast, which led to an increase in stratiform precipitation. Despite this increase, differentiation of convective strength characteristics was less obvious between wave and no-wave regimes at the coast. Owing to the propagating nature of these advecting mesoscale convective systems, interaction with the regional thermodynamic and dynamic environment appears to result in more variability than enhancements due to the wave regime, independent of location. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: A wavelet formulation on the sphere is being considered for modelling heterogeneous background-error correlations for the Météo-France global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. This approach is compared with the operational spectral formulation, which is horizontally homogeneous to a large extent. Diagnostic studies have been conducted to examine geographical variations of three-dimensional correlations over the whole globe. Results indicate that the contrast between relatively broad horizontal correlations in the Tropics and sharp ones in midlatitudes is well represented by the wavelet formulation. Heterogeneities in vertical correlations are also better captured in the wavelet approach than in the spectral one, with visible changes as functions of e.g. latitude and land/sea contrasts. In addition, wavelet-based correlation estimates are shown to be partly sensitive to the choice of the calibration period. The impact of the wavelet formulation on the forecast quality has been investigated during a three-week calibration period, and also during the following three weeks. While the impact of the wavelet formulation is globally positive during the two periods, it tends to be more spectacular during the calibration time interval, as expected. These results indicate that an on-line calibration should be considered in the future, in order to exploit fully the ability of wavelets to extract correlation heterogeneities from ensemble data. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: FY-3A, launched in May 2008, is the first in a series of seven polar-orbiting meteorological satellites due to be launched by China's Meteorological Administration in the period leading up to 2020. The FY-3A payload includes four instruments of particular interest for numerical weather prediction (NWP): microwave temperature and humidity sounders, a microwave imager, and an infrared sounder. The main features of these instruments are described. Data from the calibration–validation phase of the FY-3A mission were introduced into the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System in order to assess the data quality and the influence of the data on analyses and forecasts. An analysis of first-guess departures has shown the data to be of good quality overall. Several issues with instrument performance and ground segment processing have been identified. The most serious of these are: uncertainties in the temperature sounder passbands on-orbit, orbital biases in the infrared instrument affecting the highest peaking channels, and scan biases in the microwave humidity sounder. Variational bias correction partially corrects for these errors, but more work remains to be done to correct the problems before the full benefit of the data is realised. In observing system experiments, the FY-3A instruments, both individually and as a package, show considerable skill when added to observation depleted control experiments. When added to a full observing system, the impacts are neutral to slightly positive, as expected. These initial results are encouraging and build confidence that the following series of FY-3 instruments will be widely used in NWP data assimilation systems. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Snow particle size distributions (particle size 〉400 µm) in the western Arctic measured with in situ aircraft instrumentation during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic/First ISCCP Regional Experiment - Arctic Clouds Experiment and Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment are analysed. Three cases of shallow, precipitating mixed-phase boundary-layer clouds and two cases of deep, precipitating frontal clouds are examined. Overall, the shallow cases had much lower values of particle concentration and ice water content than the deep cases, indicating large differences in ice initiation and growth between these regimes. Within a given case for both the shallow and deep frontal systems, and for the dataset as a whole, crystal concentration had little correlation with temperature (height), despite an active aggregation process that was indicated by large aggregates (〉5 mm) observed in four out of the five cases. Exponential size distributions are fitted to the observations, allowing a direct comparison with the snow particle size distributions that are represented with exponential functions in many bulk microphysics schemes used in weather and climate models. Values of the fitted intercept parameter N 0 are generally 2–10 times smaller for the shallow compared to the deep frontal cases as a result of differences in crystal concentration between these regimes. Values of N 0 ∼ 10 7 m −4 specified for snow in many bulk microphysics schemes are broadly consistent with fitted N 0 for the deep cases but larger than values for the shallow cases. The deep frontal cases also exhibit a relationship between N 0 and temperature consistent with previous observations of midlatitude frontal systems. However, there are no consistent differences in N 0 between the shallow and deep cases when partitioned by ice water content. Fitted values of slope parameter λ for the shallow and deep cases are generally consistent with previous studies of lower-latitude cloud systems. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: A bulk flux algorithm predicts the turbulent surface fluxes of momentum and sensible and latent heat from mean measured or modelled meteorological variables. The bulk flux algorithm resulting from data collected over winter sea ice during SHEBA, the experiment to study the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean, failed, however, in its first trial to predict the turbulent momentum flux over sea ice in the Antarctic. This result suggests that the main parameter for predicting the momentum flux, the aerodynamics roughness length z 0 , does not respond just to the friction velocity, as in the SHEBA algorithm, but is closely related to the physical roughness of snow-covered sea ice and may need to be site-specific. I investigate this idea with simultaneous measurements of z 0 and the physical roughness of the surface, ξ , at Ice Station Weddell. The metric ξ derives from surveys of surface elevation and is related to but always less than the standard deviation in surface elevation. On combining the z 0 – ξ pairs from Ice Station Weddell with similar data obtained over Arctic sea ice, I show that the Arctic and Antarctic z 0 – ξ data lie along a continuum such that measuring ξ could provide a means for estimating a site-specific z 0 for any global sea ice surface. Backscatter data from satellite-borne synthetic aperture radar might provide a remotely sensed estimate of ξ . Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: During 3–4 March 2008, the Norwegian IPY-THORPEX field campaign successfully carried out three flight missions that observed the full life cycle of a polar low over the Norwegian Sea. Here the three-dimensional structure of the polar low has been investigated using dropsonde data from the three flights. The polar low developed in a cold air outbreak, with temperature differences between the sea surface and 500 hPa of about 45–50°C. Cross-sections show that the horizontal gradients of potential temperature weakened as the polar low matured, suggesting that baroclinic energy conversion took place. Dropsonde data of potential temperature and relative humidity show evidence of a tropopause fold, which is possibly a manifestation of upper-level forcing. This is corroborated by potential vorticity inversion, which shows a dominant role of upper-level forcing throughout the polar low's lifetime. During the cyclogenesis stage the polar low circulation was confined below 700 hPa, with a northerly low-level jet of 26 m s −1 . In the mature stage, its circulation reached up to the tropopause (∼450 hPa), with maximum wind speed between 700 and 900 hPa of about 26–28 m s −1 . At this stage the polar low warm core was about 3 K warmer than surrounding air masses. The deep moist towers at the eye-like structure of the polar low extended up to the tropopause with relative humidity values above 70%, indicating a possibly important role for condensational heating in the development. Estimates of surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat using temperature and moisture from the dropsonde data show latent heat fluxes west of the polar low increasing from 175 to 300 W m −2 as the low matured, while the sensible heat fluxes rose from 200 to 280 W m −2 , suggesting a gradually increasing contribution of surface fluxes to the energetics of the polar low with time. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: We present simulations of London's meteorology using the Met Office Unified Model with a new, sophisticated surface energy-balance scheme to represent the urban surfaces, called MORUSES. Simulations are performed with the urban surfaces represented and with the urban surfaces replaced with grass in order to calculate the urban increment on the local meteorology. The local urban effects were moderated to some extent by the passage of an onshore flow that propagated up the Thames estuary and across the city, cooling London slightly in the afternoon. Validations of screen-level temperature show encouraging agreement to within 1–2 K, when the urban increment is up to 5 K. The model results are then used to examine factors shaping the spatial and temporal structure of London's atmospheric boundary layer. The simulations reconcile the differences in the temporal evolution of the urban heat island (UHI) shown in various studies and demonstrate that the variation of UHI with time depends strongly on the urban fetch. The UHI at a location downwind of the city centre shows a decrease in UHI during the night, while the UHI at the city centre stays constant. Finally, the UHI at a location upwind of the city centre increases continuously. The magnitude of the UHI by the time of the evening transition increases with urban fetch. The urban increments are largest at night, when the boundary layer is shallow. The boundary layer experiences continued warming after sunset, as the heat from the urban fabric is released, and a weakly convective boundary layer develops across the city. The urban land-use fraction is the dominant control on the spatial structure in the sensible heat flux and the resulting urban increment, although even the weak advection present in this case study is sufficient to advect the peak temperature increments downwind of the most built-up areas. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Description: Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are key flow structures associated with extratropical cyclones. They transport moist air from the cyclone's warm sector poleward and upward close to the tropopause level, leading to the formation of elongated cloud bands, intense latent heating and surface precipitation. In this study a comprehensive dataset of airborne lidar observations of moisture and wind from different campaigns has been investigated with a trajectory-based approach to identify ‘lucky encounters’ with WCBs. On 19 July 2007, an upstream flight over the Iberian Peninsula during the European THORPEX Regional Campaign (ETReC 2007) in Central Europe intersected two WCBs: one in the upper tropospheric outflow region about 3 days after starting the ascent, and the other one in the boundary layer inflow region over Spain just prior to the strong ascent. Comparison of the lidar humidity measurements with analysis fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reveals significant positive deviations, equivalent to an overestimation of the modelled humidity, in this low-tropospheric WCB inflow region (of about 1 g kg −1 (14%) on average and with peak deviations up to 7 g kg −1 ). It is noteworthy that this substantial bias occurs in a potentially dynamically highly relevant air mass that will be subsequently lifted within a WCB to the upper troposphere. A Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic reveals that these large moisture deviations occur within air masses that, according to the ECMWF analyses, are coherently transported from the western Mediterranean towards Spain and experience intense moisture uptake over the Ebro valley. It is suggested that inaccuracies in surface evapotranspiration, horizontal moisture advection, and turbulent vertical transport of moisture in the atmospheric boundary layer potentially contribute to the erroneous low-tropospheric humidity in the inflow region of this particular summertime WCB over Spain in the ECMWF analyses. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: The role of the representation of deep convection on key elements of the West African summer monsoon climate is addressed using the Regional Climate Model RegCM3. Two simulations in which a scheme of deep convection is activated and then turned off are performed and intercompared. Results show that the presence of deep convective heating along the intertropical convergence zone sustains increased lower-level baroclinicity favoring intensification of the jet core and leading to a more realistic African easterly jet. In addition, although the isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) is lower when the convection scheme is switched off, African easterly waves (AEWs) are still generated and propagate westwards but they dissipate around the west coast. Substantial differences between the two simulations occur mainly at the 6- to 9-day time-scale over land, when much weaker activity is simulated in the absence of convection. This indicates that orographic friction and low-level large-scale moisture convergence, generating high values of latent heat and IPV, may play the dominant role in the genesis and growth of AEWs and that deep convection acts to strengthen the overall wave activity and to favor their west coast development. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: A unique airborne differential absorption lidar (DIAL) for water vapour observations was developed at the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR). Installed on board the DLR Falcon 20 aircraft, the system measured a dataset of about 3900 water vapour profiles during the T-PARC field campaign. These high-resolution humidity observations were assimilated into the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global model using a version of the operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation system. The assimilation system is able to extract the information for DIAL observations, and verification with independent dropsonde observations shows a reduction in the analysis error when DIAL water vapour observations are assimilated. The forecast influence of the humidity observations is found to be small in most cases, but the observations are able to affect the forecast considerably under certain conditions. Systematic errors are investigated by comparison between humidity model fields, DIAL and dropsonde observations. Overall, DIAL observations are roughly 7–10% drier than model fields throughout the troposphere. Comparison with dropsonde observations suggests that the DIAL observations are too dry in the lower troposphere but not above it. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: In this paper we provide an overview of various satellite products over the Sahara Desert that were available during the GERBILS field campaign. Our results indicate that all mid-visible satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) products match well with AERONET retrievals. For low AOD (AOD 〈 1), the satellite AODs compare well with aircraft AOD values but they tend to underestimate at high AOD values. We then assessed the satellite products in 0.5 × 0.5 degree grids for the entire study region (10–30°N and 20°W–10°E). If we use a multi-angle imaging spectroradiometer (MISR) as a benchmark for AOD retrievals over bright targets, the estimated AOD derived from the ozone-monitoring instrument aerosol index–MISR relationship performs best when compared with MISR for the entire study region. Although differences exist among satellite products, the advancement in satellite retrieval techniques now provide AOD retrievals over bright targets such as deserts, which are useful for numerical modeling simulation comparisons and other studies. Furthermore, the in situ information from aircraft and the ground continue to provide valuable information for validating satellite products and for assessing their strengths and weaknesses. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, theMet Office

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: The impact of the high-frequency (HF, 〈90 days) variability on low-frequency (LF) interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated by conducting a series of oceanic general circulation model experiments. Two nonlinear rectification mechanisms are examined. The first is the internal oceanic nonlinear dynamics and the second is the nonlinear rectification of the LF surface wind stress by the HF wind. Numerical simulations show that the latter is dominant in modulating the LF SST variability. The HF wind increases both the amplitude and skewness of the LF wind stress anomaly. As a result, it increases both the amplitude and skewness of the SST anomaly (SSTA) in the eastern equatorial Pacific. For strong El Niño events in 1982/83 and 1997/98, such a nonlinear rectification effect may result in a SSTA increase of 1°C. A mixed-layer heat budget analysis reveals that whereas meridional and vertical advections primarily contribute to the strengthening of the warm and cold episodes, the nonlinear zonal advection is responsible for the increase of the SSTA skewness. Including the nonlinear rectification of the HF wind on both the surface wind stress and heat flux anomalies leads to a positively (negatively) skewed SSTA in the eastern (central) Pacific. Thus the combined dynamic and thermodynamic effect reshapes the ENSO zonal structure in such a way that it makes the maximum SSTA confined further to the eastern equatorial Pacific. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 5, Page 1036-1051, May 2011.

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 5, Page 1166-1173, May 2011.

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 5, Page 1174-1180, May 2011.

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 5, Page 1157-1165, May 2011.

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 5, Page 1073-1082, May 2011.

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 5, Page 1094-1103, May 2011.

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 5, Page 1063-1072, May 2011.

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 5, Page 1181-1187, May 2011.

Description: In situ , satellite and model analyses data in April–July 2006 are used to investigate the links between sea surface temperature (SST) and the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) in the Gulf of Guinea. The study region between 10°W and 6°E is divided into three areas with different characteristics: the North Area (4.5°N to 1°N) with the wettest atmosphere and the warmest SST, the Upwelling Area (1°N to 4°S) with the strongest SST decrease, and the South Area (4°S to 8°S) with a drier atmosphere and a more slowly decreasing SST than in the Upwelling Area. The key zone of the air-sea interactions in this region seems to be the SST front between North and Upwelling Areas. On the one hand, the study of the MABL on either side of the front shows a well-mixed layer between the surface and about 500 m high, sensitive to surface variations, which gets shallower (deeper) when the SST decreases (increases). The MABL height (about 1500 m) follows the same variations but is not exactly collocated with the SST variations. On the other hand, the observation of the MABL across the SST front shows a strengthening of southeasterlies in the South Area coinciding with a strong SST decrease in the Upwelling Area. In the latter, the wind weakens above the colder SST. Besides, in the North Area, the wind strengthens above the warmer SST. However, the wind acceleration spans from the equator to 2°N in April and as far as 4°N in June. A convergence zone is observed in the vicinity of 2°N in April, suggesting a convection activity there, favoured by the SST front. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: This article presents and assesses an algorithm that constructs 3D distributions of cloud from passive satellite imagery and collocated 2D nadir profiles of cloud properties inferred synergistically from lidar, cloud radar and imager data. It effectively widens the active–passive retrieved cross-section (RXS) of cloud properties, thereby enabling computation of radiative fluxes and radiances that can be compared with measured values in an attempt to perform radiative closure experiments that aim to assess the RXS. For this introductory study, A-train data were used to verify the scene-construction algorithm and only 1D radiative transfer calculations were performed. The construction algorithm fills off-RXS recipient pixels by computing sums of squared differences (a cost function F ) between their spectral radiances and those of potential donor pixels/columns on the RXS. Of the RXS pixels with F lower than a certain value, the one with the smallest Euclidean distance to the recipient pixel is designated as the donor, and its retrieved cloud properties and other attributes such as 1D radiative heating rates are consigned to the recipient. It is shown that both the RXS itself and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery can be reconstructed extremely well using just visible and thermal infrared channels. Suitable donors usually lie within 10 km of the recipient. RXSs and their associated radiative heating profiles are reconstructed best for extensive planar clouds and less reliably for broken convective clouds. Domain-average 1D broadband radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) for (21 km) 2 domains constructed from MODIS, CloudSat and Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) data agree well with coincidental values derived from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) radiances: differences between modelled and measured reflected shortwave fluxes are within ±10 W m −2 for ∼35% of the several hundred domains constructed for eight orbits. Correspondingly, for outgoing longwave radiation ∼65% are within ±10 W m −2 . Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown in the right of Canada

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: In geophysical data assimilation, the control space is by definition the set of parameters which are estimated through the assimilation of observations. It has recently been proposed to design the discretizations of control space in order to assimilate observations optimally. The present paper describes the embedding of that formalism in a consistent Bayesian framework. General background errors are now accounted for. Scale-dependent errors, such as aggregation errors (that lead to representativeness errors) are consistently introduced. The optimal adaptive discretizations of control space minimize a criterion on a dictionary of grids. New criteria are proposed: degrees of freedom for the signal (DFS) built on the averaging kernel operator, and an observation-dependent criterion. These concepts and results are applied to atmospheric transport of pollutants. The algorithms are tested on the European tracer experiment (ETEX), and on a prototype of CO 2 flux inversion over Europe using a simplified CarboEurope-IP network. New types of adaptive discretization of control space are tested such as quaternary trees or factorised trees. Quaternary trees are proven to be both economical, in terms of storage and CPU time, and efficient on the test cases. This sets the path for the application of this methodology to high-dimensional and noisy geophysical systems. Part II of this article will develop asymptotic solutions for the design of control space representations that are obtained analytically and are contenders to exact numerical optimizations. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Spatial and temporal characteristics of a nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) on the east side of the Western Ghat mountain range over India's west coast and processes leading to the formation of the jet are discussed. The boundary-layer jet has a regional scale extent, as revealed by high-resolution Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model simulations, and contributes to the formation of ‘atmospheric streams’ of water vapor over the selected land regions. Simulations indicate that the formation of LLJ is mainly attributed to the baroclinicity of the valley atmosphere due to the gently rolling terrain, which is assisted by the persistence of an unstable residual layer above the developing stable boundary layer in the valley and cooling over the slopes. Prior to the formation of LLJ, the boundary layer is dominated by deep roll circulations. The LLJ followed a gust front zone associated with a mountain wave. The low-level flow below the jet is decoupled from the upper-level flow as a result of strong vorticity below the jet and suppression of turbulence at the jet core. A conceptual model for the boundary layer interactions, dynamics of the mountain wave, LLJ, etc. are proposed for Western Ghat region. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: This article examines the first-guess (FG) departures of microwave imager radiances assimilated in all-sky conditions (i.e. clear, cloudy and precipitating). Agreement between FG and observations is good in clear skies, with error standard deviations around 2 K, but in heavy cloud or precipitation errors increase to 20 K. The forecast model is not good at predicting cloud and precipitation with exactly the right intensity or location. This leads to apparently non-Gaussian behaviour, both heteroscedasticity, i.e. an increase in error with cloud amount, and boundedness, i.e. the size of errors is close to the geophysical range of the observations, which runs from clear to fully cloudy. However, the dependence of FG departure standard deviations on the mean cloud amount is predictable. Using this dependence to normalise the FG departures gives an error distribution that is close to Gaussian. Thus if errors are treated correctly, all-sky observations can be assimilated successfully under the assumption of Gaussianity on which assimilation systems are based. This ‘symmetric’ error model can be used to provide a robust threshold quality-control check and to determine the size of observation errors for all-sky assimilation. In practice, however, this ‘observation’ error is being used to account for the model's difficulty in forecasting cloud, which really comes from errors in the background and in the forecast model. Hence in future it will be necessary to improve the representation of background and model error. Separately, symmetric cloud amount is recommended as a predictor for bias correction schemes, avoiding the sampling problems associated with ‘asymmetric’ predictors like the FG cloud amount. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Laboratory experiments to determine the preferred orientation of free-falling hexagonal prisms were performed at Reynolds numbers appropriate to falling ice crystals in the atmosphere. Hexagonal plates orient with their c axis vertical for aspect ratios 〈 0.9, whilst hexagonal columns fall with their c axis horizontal. A secondary alignment is also observed: regular hexagonal columns fall preferentially with two prism facets aligned vertically and not horizontally – the latter scenario was previously assumed to be responsible for the rare Parry arc. However, if the column is made scalene in its cross-section, it can orient such that a pair of prism facets is horizontal. This finding indicates that the development of scalene crystals may be key to the production of certain ice-crystal optical phenomena. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Gravity-wave-induced temperature fluctuations predicted by a mountain-wave parametrization scheme are compared with observed stratospheric temperature fluctuations from the High-Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) instrument. The focus of the study is on the southern Andes region during the month of August 2006. The comparison reveals that while the mean amplitude of temperature fluctuations predicted by the parametrization is broadly consistent with those observed by HIRDLS, there are significant differences for individual cases. Ray-tracing calculations performed for these cases suggest that these differences are likely to be associated with horizontal propagation of mountain waves, which is not represented by current column-based parametrization schemes. The results presented in this note suggest that this is a deficiency of mountain-wave parametrization schemes that may affect models at resolutions typical of both climate and numerical weather prediction modelling. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 8, Page 1691-1698, August 2011.

Description: A new version of the Edwards–Slingo (ES) radiation scheme is developed using the correlated- k distribution (CKD) method. The work is conducted based on the line-by-line radiative transfer scheme GENLN2. A dataset of new ozone absorption cross-section in the ultraviolet spectrum and new oxygen collision-induced continuum data have been implemented in both the GENLN2 and new ES schemes. In order to improve the efficiency of the ES scheme, a new technique is proposed in this work to optimize the k distribution and a new method is used to deal with the gaseous overlapping absorption in a spectral band. The accuracy of the scheme is improved by replacing the scaling function used in the ES scheme with a pre-determined look-up table for consideration of the pressure and temperature dependency of the absorption oefficients. The number of spectral bands and number of absorbing species are both increased in the new scheme for better resolution of the spectral variation of absorbing species, aerosols and clouds. However, this does not increase the computational cost. Instead, it is reduced substantially compared with the previous version of the code. The treatment of transmission in the short-wave spectrum is improved by implementing the absorbing species of CH 4 , N 2 O and O 2 collision-induced continuum absorption which are not included in the ES scheme. New O 3 absorption cross-section data in the ultraviolet spectrum measured by the European Space Agency are used to generate the CKD spectral data in the short-wave spectral bands. These data have a temperature dependency and better spectral resolution. The irradiance and heating rate determined by the new scheme are tested against the same variables determined by GENLN2. It has been shown that the new scheme produces results more accurate than the ES scheme. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Ice cloud representation in general circulation models remains a challenging task, due to the lack of accurate observations and the complexity of microphysical processes. In this article, we evaluate the ice water content (IWC) and ice cloud fraction statistical distributions from the numerical weather prediction models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office, exploiting the synergy between the CloudSat radar and CALIPSO lidar. Using the last three weeks of July 2006, we analyse the global ice cloud occurrence as a function of temperature and latitude and show that the models capture the main geographical and temperature-dependent distributions, but overestimate the ice cloud occurrence in the Tropics in the temperature range from −60 °C to −20 °C and in the Antarctic for temperatures higher than −20 °C, but underestimate ice cloud occurrence at very low temperatures. A global statistical comparison of the occurrence of grid-box mean IWC at different temperatures shows that both the mean and range of IWC increases with increasing temperature. Globally, the models capture most of the IWC variability in the temperature range between −60 °C and −5 °C, and also reproduce the observed latitudinal dependencies in the IWC distribution due to different meteorological regimes. Two versions of the ECMWF model are assessed. The recent operational version with a diagnostic representation of precipitating snow and mixed-phase ice cloud fails to represent the IWC distribution in the −20 °C to 0 °C range, but a new version with prognostic variables for liquid water, ice and snow is much closer to the observed distribution. The comparison of models and observations provides a much-needed analysis of the vertical distribution of IWC across the globe, highlighting the ability of the models to reproduce much of the observed variability as well as the deficiencies where further improvements are required. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Description: Mass-flux convection schemes continue to play key roles in large-scale atmospheric modelling. Currently, however, the specification of detrainment seems a potential weakness. Using cloud-resolving model results from the European Cloud Systems (EUROCS) humidity case, we consider how detrainment adapts to its environment and formulate a minimal-complexity description of partial detrainment in convective cloud fields. This can be viewed as an approximation to the behaviour of a multi-plume scheme. The algorithm is straightforwardly implemented within the Gregory–Rowntree convection scheme as an extension of its original partial-detrainment scheme. Numerical weather prediction tests in the Met Office Unified Model show significant benefits in full-model performance. © 2011 Crown Copyright, the Met Office. Published by JohnWiley & Sons Ltd.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: We investigate the issue of variational and sequential data assimilation with nonlinear and non-smooth observation operators using a two-dimensional limited-area shallow-water equation model and its adjoint. The performance of the four-dimensional variational approach (4D-Var: two dimensions plus time) compared with that of the maximum-likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF), a hybrid ensemble/variational method, is tested in the presence of non-smooth observation operators. Following the work of Lewis & Overton and Karmitsa, we investigate minimization of the data-assimilation cost functional using the limited-memory Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (L-BFGS) quasi-Newton algorithm originally intended for smooth optimization and the limited-memory bundle method (LMBM) algorithm specifically designed to address large-scale non-smooth minimization problems. Numerical results obtained for the MLEF method show that the LMBM algorithm yields results superior to the L-BFGS method. Results for 4D-Var suggest that L-BFGS performs well when the non-smoothness is not extreme, but fails for non-smooth functions with large Lipschitz constants. The LMBM method is found to be a suitable choice for large-scale non-smooth optimization, although additional work is needed to improve its numerical stability. Finally, the results and methodologies of 4D-Var and MLEF are compared and contrasted. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 10, Page 2006, October 2011.

Description: The simultaneous presence of convective, symmetric and inertial instability in a prefrontal region of strong vertical wind shear was simulated with the non-hydrostatic model MOLOCH. Model diagnostics of absolute vorticity, pseudo-angular momentum, saturated equivalent potential temperature and vorticity reveal a sequence of events that includes ‘Δ M -adjustment’, followed by slanted ascent in symmetrically unstable regions, becoming saturated in the later stages. An idealized experiment without orography was performed to isolate the presence and role of instabilities characterizing the development. The diagnosed circulation is reminiscent of a wavenumber-two normal mode of dry symmetric instability, while moist symmetric instability is confined to a very limited region, despite the appearance of wider areas of negative moist potential vorticity. The evaluation of moist thermodynamic quantities which give proper account of condensate loading is suggested as a possible resolution of this apparent inconsistency. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Localization is an essential element of ensemble-based Kalman filters in large-scale systems. Two localization methods are commonly used: covariance localization and domain localization. The former applies a localizing weight to the forecast covariance matrix, while the latter splits the assimilation into local regions in which independent assimilation updates are performed. The domain localization is usually combined with observation localization, which is a weighting of the observation-error covariance matrix, resulting in a similar localization effect to that of covariance localized filters. It is shown that the use of the same localization function in covariance localization and observation localization results in distinct effective localization length-scales in the Kalman gain. In order to improve the performance of observation localization, a regulated localization scheme is introduced. Twin experiments with the Lorenz-96 model demonstrate that the regulated localization can lead to a significant reduction of estimation errors as well as increased stability of the assimilation process. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: In this work the dynamic behaviour of the wind in the nocturnal boundary layer is studied, with a particular focus on systematic behaviour of the near-surface wind. Recently, an extension of the well-known Blackadar model for frictionless inertial oscillations above the nocturnal boundary layer was proposed by Van de Wiel et al. , which accounts for frictional effects within the nocturnal boundary layer. It appears that the nocturnal wind velocity profile tends to perform an inertial oscillation around an equilibrium wind profile, rather than around the geostrophic wind vector (as in the Blackadar model). In the present study we propose the concept of ‘composite hodographs’ to evaluate the ideas and assumptions of the aforementioned analytical model. Composite hodographs are constructed based on a large observational dataset from the Cabauw observatory. For comparison and deeper analysis, this method is also applied to single-column model simulations that represent the same dataset. From this, it is shown that winds in the middle and upper part of the nocturnal boundary layer closely follow the dynamics predicted by the model by Van de Wiel et al. In contrast, the near-surface wind shows more complex behaviour that can be described by two different stages: (1) a decelerating phase where the wind decreases rapidly in magnitude due to enlarged stress divergence in the transition period near sunset (an aspect not included in the analytical model), and (2) a regular type of inertial oscillation, but with relatively small amplitude as compared to the oscillations in the middle and upper parts of the nocturnal boundary layer. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: The limits of predictability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and upper-ocean temperatures due to errors in ocean initial conditions and model parametrizations are investigated in an idealized configuration of an ocean general circulation model (GCM). Singular vectors (optimal perturbations) are calculated using the GCM, its tangent linear and adjoint models to determine an upper bound on the predictability of North Atlantic climate. The maximum growth time-scales of MOC and upper-ocean temperature anomalies, excited by the singular vectors, are 18.5 and 13 years respectively and in part explained by the westward propagation of upper-ocean anomalies against the mean flow. As a result of the linear interference of non-orthogonal eigenmodes of the non-normal dynamics, the ocean dynamics are found to actively participate in the significant growth of the anomalies. An initial density perturbation of merely 0.02 kg m −3 is found to lead to a 1.7 Sv MOC anomaly after 18.5 years. In addition, Northern Hemisphere upper-ocean temperature perturbations can be amplified by a factor of 2 after 13 years. The growth of upper-ocean temperature and MOC anomalies is slower and weaker when excited by the upper-ocean singular vectors than when the deep ocean is perturbed. This leads to the conclusion that predictability experiments perturbing only the atmospheric initial state may overestimate the predictability time. Interestingly, optimal MOC and upper-ocean temperature excitations are only weakly correlated, thus limiting the utility of SST observations to infer MOC variability. The excitation of anomalies in this model might have a crucial impact on the variability and predictability of Atlantic climate. The limit of predictability of the MOC is found to be different from that of the upper-ocean heat content, emphasizing that errors in ocean initial conditions will affect various measures differently and such uncertainties should be carefully considered in decadal prediction experiments. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 10, Page 2004, October 2011.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 10, Page 1994-1998, October 2011.

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 10, Page 2007, October 2011.

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 10, Page 1959-1971, October 2011.

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 10, Page 1998-2002, October 2011.

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 10, Page 2003, October 2011.

Description: Ecology, Volume 92, Issue 10, Page 2005, October 2011.

Description: Preferred jet stream positions and their link to regional circulation patterns over the winter North Atlantic/European sector are investigated to corroborate findings of multimodal behaviour of the jet positions and to analyse patterns of preferred paths and transition probabilities between jet regimes using ERA-40 data. Besides the multivariate Gaussian mixture model, hierarchical clustering and data image techniques are used for this purpose. The different approaches all yield circulation patterns that correspond to the preferred jet regimes, namely the southern, central and the northern positions associated respectively with the Greenland anticyclone or blocking, and two opposite phases of an East Atlantic-like flow pattern. Growth and decay patterns as well as preferred paths of the system trajectory are studied using the mixture model within the delay space. The analysis shows that the most preferred paths are associated with central to north and north to south jet stream transitions with a typical time-scale of about 5 days, and with life cycles of 1–2 weeks. The transition paths are found to be consistent with transition probabilities. The analysis also shows that wave breaking seems to be the dominant mechanism behind Greenland blocking. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: The transformed Eulerian mean residual circulation is calculated from ERA-Interim for 1989–2009. Known as the Brewer–Dobson circulation, this measures the tropical upwelling of mass from troposphere to stratosphere, the mean meridional mass transport in the stratosphere and the downwelling of mass in the Extratropics. Major features of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, including the seasonal migration of the tropical upwelling toward the summer pole, are well represented. In the tropical lower stratosphere vertical velocities are less noisy than in other reanalyses, though significant tidal variations demonstrate the need for 6-hourly data. Throughout the year tropical lower stratospheric ascent rates are a minimum at the Equator and strongest in the Northern Hemisphere. In each hemisphere the maximum tropical ascent occurs during summer, whereas the strongest circulation and maximum in extratropical descent occur in the winter hemisphere. At 70 hPa the annual mean upwelling mass flux is 5.9 × 10 9 kg s −1 , with the zonal drag from resolved waves and parametrized orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD) providing 70% and 4% of the driving, respectively. Hence it is concluded that the OGWD probably underestimates the momentum deposited above 70 hPa in addition to there being an absence of drag from non-orographic gravity waves. A statistically significant trend of −5% per decade in the upwelling mass flux is considered unreliable because it is inconsistent with the negative temperature trend, assuming a mainly adiabatic temperature response at this level (70 hPa) to the changes in upwelling. Copyright © 2011 British Crown copyright, the Met Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Single column model simulations using the UK Met Office Unified Model, as used in the Australian Community Climate Earth System Simulator, are presented for the Tropical Warm Pool–International Cloud Experiment (TWP–ICE) field study. Two formulations for the representation of clouds are compared with the extensive observations taken during the campaign, giving insight into the ability of the model to simulate tropical cloud systems. During the active monsoon phase the modelled cloud cover has a stronger dependence on relative humidity than the observations. Observed ice cloud properties during the suppressed monsoon period show that the ice water content is significantly underestimated in the simulations. The profiles of modelled ice fall speeds are faster than those observed in the levels above 12 km, implying that the observations have smaller sized particles in larger concentrations than the models. Both simulations show similar errors in the diurnal cycle of relative humidity during the active monsoon phase, suggesting that the error is less sensitive to the choice of cloud scheme and rather is driven by the convection scheme. However, during the times of suppressed convection the relative humidity error is different between the simulations, with congestus convection drying the environment too much, particularly in the prognostic cloud-scheme simulation. This result shows that the choice of cloud scheme and the way that the cloud and convection schemes interact plays a role in the temperature and moisture errors during the suppressed monsoon phase, which will impact the three-dimensional model simulations of tropical variability. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: This work tackles the problem of the automated detection of the atmospheric boundary layer (BL) height h , from aerosol lidar/ceilometer observations. A new method, the Bayesian selective method (BSM), is presented. It implements a Bayesian statistical inference procedure which combines in a statistically optimal way different sources of information. Firstly, atmospheric stratification boundaries are located from discontinuities in the ceilometer backscattered signal. The BSM then identifies the discontinuity edge that has the highest probability to effectively mark the BL height. Information from the contemporaneous physical boundary layer model simulations and a climatological dataset of BL height evolution are combined in the assimilation framework to assist this choice. The BSM algorithm has been tested for 4 months of continuous ceilometer measurements collected during the BASE:ALFA project, and is shown to realistically diagnose the BL depth evolution in many different weather conditions. A standard one-dimensional processing of the ceilometer signal without the a priori support of the dynamical and climatological BL models often fails to correctly detect h , with the greatest inaccuracies occurring at night-time when residual layers can generate very strong signals, which are then classified by an automated application of the gradient or of the wavelet analysis as the most probable BL height. The BSM approach instead carries information on the low climatological probability to find elevated BL depths at night and penalizes the selection of these points. Moreover, this method is able to correctly convey information along the temporal dimension, thus filling data gaps using earlier and subsequent ceilometer information for the retrieval. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Retrospective optimal interpolation (ROI) is a method that is used to minimize cost functions with multiple minima without using adjoint models. We address two weaknesses associated with the cost-effective formulation of ROI and offer possible solutions. The first weakness of the cost-effective ROI formulation is that the error tolerance would become large in practical application due to computation costs. When the error tolerance is large, accuracy-saturated modes do not extract information from new incoming observations even though they are likely to be flawed. To address this problem, we modify the existing ‘reduced-resolution’ formulation by using eigen-decomposition of the background error covariance at each analysis step. We refer to the modified algorithm as a ‘reduced-rank’ algorithm. This modification allows us to deal with larger error variances while analysing the same number of control variables, because eigen-decomposition steeply reorders the error variance in descending order. As a result, when the reduced-rank algorithm is applied, the number of analysed control variables becomes smaller than when the reduced-resolution algorithm is used with the same error tolerance. The second weakness is the underestimation of the trailing mode of background error covariance that is projected onto the future observation space. This originates from errors in control variables extracted from analysis procedures. To prevent the occurrence of filter divergence due to this underestimation, we reduce the weighting of the observational increments in the analysis. By implicitly assuming that the rate of being projected onto the future observation space of the trailing eigenmodes is similar to that of the leading eigenmodes, we develop a method that inflates the observation error covariance and consequently improves analysis quality in the Lorenz 40-variable and the 960-variable model experiments. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: We develop a hydrostatic Hamiltonian particle-mesh (HPM) method for efficient long-term numerical integration of the atmosphere. In the HPM method, the hydrostatic approximation is interpreted as a holonomic constraint for the vertical position of particles. This can be viewed as defining a set of vertically buoyant horizontal meshes, with the altitude of each mesh point determined so as to satisfy the hydrostatic balance condition and with particles modelling horizontal advection between the moving meshes. We implement the method in a vertical-slice model and evaluate its performance for the simulation of idealized linear and nonlinear orographic flow in both dry and moist environments. The HPM method is able to capture the basic features of the gravity wave to a degree of accuracy comparable with that reported in the literature. The numerical solution in the moist experiment indicates that the influence of moisture on wave characteristics is represented reasonably well and the reduction of momentum flux is in good agreement with theoretical analysis. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: This study investigates transient events of intense ocean evaporation with an amplitude exceeding 250 W m −2 , a duration of a few days, and a spatial extent of about 10ˆ6 km 2 over the eastern North Atlantic (referred to as ‘evaporation hot spots’) and their impact on southern Alpine heavy precipitation. First, moisture sources for a heavy precipitation event in the Piedmont in November 2002 are studied using a water-tagging simulation with a regional model. The results reveal three main moisture sources: land evapotranspiration, and evaporation from the Mediterranean and the North Atlantic, with the last source contributing the most. This was partly due to an evaporation hot spot that appeared along the western edge of a prominent upper-level trough about two days prior to the onset of heavy precipitation. In the hot spot area strong surface winds induced by the upper-level trough led to intense evaporation of water that was transported around the trough to the Piedmont region during subsequent days, where it contributed to the heavy precipitation. Secondly, analyses by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used to investigate climatologically the potential relationship between eastern North Atlantic evaporation hot spots and southern Alpine precipitation. During a 10-year time period, 42 hot spots have been identified in the eastern North Atlantic. It is shown that they typically occur along the western flank of prominent upper-level troughs, and that the evaporating moisture is transported to Europe within one to four days. A climatological analysis of southern Alpine heavy precipitation events shows that they are frequently preceded by intense North Atlantic evaporation. Hence the climatological analysis further supports the conclusion from the Piedmont 2002 tagging experiment that intense evaporation over the North Atlantic and the subsequent moisture transport, both induced by the upper-level trough, are potential key factors for the development of southern Alpine heavy precipitation events. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: The spectral predictability of the Met Office's Unified Model is examined using identical-twin experiments and the relative kinetic energy. In the troposphere, previous NWP results are recovered, namely the emergence of distinct regimes and the maximisation of the growth rate on synoptic scales at early times; in the middle atmosphere, the predictability decay is slower. This difference is attributed to the increase in the amplitude of gravity waves. The influence of small-scale motions is highlighted: improving their numerical representation by decreasing the timestep enhances predictability. Copyright © 2011 British Crown copyright, the MetOffice. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Description: The effect of the relative orientation of the vertical wind shear to the surface wind on tropical cyclogenesis is explored in environments of radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) through numerical simulation. This study serves as a companion paper to an earlier study on the thermodynamics of genesis in RCE. It is found, when the mean surface wind and shear are aligned, a negative surface wind anomaly arises from the superposition of the mean and vortex surface flows left of the shear vector. The resulting weak surface enthalpy fluxes and up-shear quasi-balanced subsidence leads to dry air being located cyclonically down-wind of the down-shear convective anomaly. Thus convection is inhibited from propagating cyclonically around the core leading to a large down-shear vortex tilt. Conversely, in a counter-aligned orientation, the negative surface wind anomaly and driest air is found right of the shear vector. Hence the driest air rotates into the down-shear flank where it moistened by shear-organized convection. Furthermore, the boundary layer is relatively moist left of shear due to the positive surface wind anomaly, therefore promoting the cyclonic propagation from down-shear and constraining the magnitude of the vortex tilt. Genesis is intimately tied to the magnitude of the tilt and is found to occur once the mid-level vortex has precessed into the up-shear flank. For smaller values of maximum tilt, vortex precession is comparatively rapid, aided by “showerhead” moistening provided by the up-shear advection of frozen condensate aloft. With the up-shear flank pre-moistened, rapid precession of the mid-level vortex, at smaller radii, leads to near saturation on the mesoscale and the onset of rapid intensification. When the magnitude of the tilt is quite large, precession is much slower and the showerhead effect is significantly reduced until just prior to the emergence of the mid-level vortex in the up-shear flank. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Relative humidity (RH) measurements, as derived from wet-bulb and dry-bulb thermometers operated as a psychrometer within a thermometer screen, have limited accuracy because of natural ventilation variations. Standard RH calculations generally assume a fixed screen psychrometer coefficient, but this is too small during poor ventilation. By comparing a reference humidity probe—exposed within a screen containing a psychrometer—with wind-speed measurements under controlled conditions, a wind-speed correction for the screen psychrometer coefficient has been derived and is applicable when 2-metre wind speeds fall below 3 m s −1 . Applying this to hourly-averaged data reduced the mean moist RH bias of the psychrometer (over the reference probe) from 1.2% to 0.4%, and reduced the interquartile range of the RH differences from 2.0% to 0.8%. This correction is particularly amenable to automatic measurement systems. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: In early January 2011, southern China experienced another severe wintertime storm as in the winter of 2008. The storm consisted of a narrow east-west-oriented freezing rain band over central Guizhou with an extensive area of snow to the north and a rain swath to the south. This study investigates this event using conventional surface and radiosonde data as well as final (FNL) analyses data from the US National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCAR/NCEP). The results show that forcing by geostrophic and diabatic heating built up a positive direct secondary circulation perpendicular to the quasi-stationary front beneath 700 hPa to maintain the surface cold layer and warm layer aloft through surface cold advection and warm advection aloft. In addition, turbulence induced by strong wind shear in the middle and lower stratiform clouds with a low concentration of ice nuclei plays an important role in the growth of cloud drops and the enhancement of supercool raindrop precipitation over Guizhou. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: A simple self-contained theory is proposed for describing the life cycles of convective systems as a discharge–recharge process. A closed description is derived for the dynamics of an ensemble of convective plumes based on an energy cycle. The system consists of prognostic equations for the cloud work function and the convective kinetic energy. The system can be closed by introducing a functional relationship between the convective kinetic energy and the cloud-base mass flux. The behaviour of this system is considered under a bulk simplification. Previous cloud-resolving models as well as bulk statistical theories for ensemble convective systems suggest that a plausible relationship would be to assume that the convective kinetic energy is linearly proportional to the cloud-base mass flux. As a result, the system reduces to a nonlinear dynamical system with two dependent variables, the cloud-base mass flux and the cloud work function. The fully nonlinear solution of this system always represents a periodic cycle regardless of the initial condition under constant large-scale forcing. Importantly, the inclusion of energy dissipation in this model does not in itself lead the system into equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: During the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) campaign in 2006, extended surface and boundary-layer measurements were performed to study the influence of soil-moisture patterns on the generation of thermally forced circulations and triggering of deep convection. However, not all processes involved in the triggering of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) could be identified in previous studies. Therefore, COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling) simulations were carried out investigating possible trigger mechanisms. On 31 July 2006, an MCS was initiated and on 1 August, soil-moisture inhomogeneities resulted in a thermally forced circulation with an associated convergence zone, but no deep convection was triggered. It was found that the MCS on 31 July was influenced by a cyclonic vortex and favoured by the superposition of two convergence zones of different origins. Initiation of the MCS occurred in the simulation when moist monsoon air was transported to the north, associated with a cold pool ahead of another MCS, and reached the convergence zone. On 1 August, the simulation reproduced the thermally forced circulation caused by the soil-moisture pattern, which had been produced by the precipitation of the MCS. However, due to low humidity in the boundary layer and low convective available potential energy, the lifting along the convergence zone did not trigger deep convection. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: The structure and propagation of oceanic Yanai waves (also known as mixed Rossby–gravity waves) are investigated by analysis of satellite-derived sea-surface-height (SSH) data. Significant spectral peaks along the dispersion curves of first and second baroclinic mode Yanai waves are identified by the wavenumber–frequency spectral analysis of SSH for the period 10–17 days. The spatial structure and propagation of these modes are described by an analysis of SSH time series filtered in the frequency–wavenumber domain that includes strong signals along the dispersion curves but excludes those of 17-day tropical instability waves. The difference in meridional structure between the first and second baroclinic modes, which is consistent with theory, is evident. The slow eastward propagation of first and second baroclinic mode Yanai wave packets, which is consistent with the group velocity derived from theory, is also isolated from the SSH data. Year-to-year variability of Yanai wave activity is compared with that of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), showing a moderate correlation with ENSO Modoki. © Published in 2011 by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Description: An ensemble method combined with a four-dimensional variational data assimilation system is used to provide monthly estimates of the background error covariance matrix for global stratospheric and upper tropospheric ozone for the year 2008. The system is composed of the Mocage chemical transport model and the Valentina assimilation system. The ensemble was obtained from parallel analyses of perturbed data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument. The monthly estimates of background error covariances have then been introduced in the assimilation suite. To assess the separate contribution of each of its components, a number of analyses were realized, using only some estimated components of the background error covariances and a basic model for the others. The evaluation is realized by comparing the analyses with independent ozone profiles (from ozonesondes) and total ozone columns (from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument). It demonstrates that using the estimated statistics compared to basic models for the background error covariance matrix globally slightly improves the analysis quality; however, using the estimated statistics more largely improves the analysis quality for special situations encountered in April and October. In these situations, the most important parameter for the analysis quality is the use of estimated correlations. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: In the present study, the synoptic conditions that favour the occurrence of aerosol episodes over the broader Mediterranean basin are investigated. For this purpose daily satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from MODIS-Terra (Collection 5) for the period from 1 March 2000 to 28 February 2007 were used together with mean-sea-level pressure and geopotential height at 700 hPa obtained from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project. An objective and dynamic algorithm was developed in order to determine strong and extreme aerosol episodes in the study area. According to the applied methodology and the relevant criteria, 322 days with aerosol episodes have been identified. The atmospheric circulation of each day was objectively classified by the implementation of Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis, resulting in eight representative synoptic conditions (clusters). The aerosol episode days (AEDs) are most frequently observed during the dry period of the year, and especially in July–August (108 days or 33.5%) and April–May (106 days or 33%) and give rise to desert dust, anthropogenic pollution and biomass-burning episodes. The most frequent synoptic conditions are those of Clusters 4 (30.1%) and 5 (21%), inducing episodes that occur primarily in the western and secondarily in the central Mediterranean. In the former case, which is observed in summer, Europe is under the influence of the extended subtropical anticyclone of the Atlantic (Azores), while the eastern Mediterranean is under the influence of the extended thermal low of south-west Asia. In the latter case, in spring and summer, anticyclonic conditions prevail over central Europe and over the east Atlantic Ocean, and low pressures at the northwestern parts of the broader Mediterranean basin and across the Sahara. During the aerosol episode days of the various clusters, the mean regional AOD can reach values up to 0.8 ± 0.2 and 2.3 ± 1.3 for strong and extreme episodes, respectively. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Short-range forecasts of cloud cover are considered an important part of providing a public weather service in the UK. These require accurate initial conditions. Satellite imagery and surface cloud reports provide observations of cloud but using these to initialize forecast models is not easy. Cloud data are not well suited to variational analysis schemes. This paper describes how the Met Office variational analysis has been adapted to use such data. Results show that cloud observations can be usefully assimilated. Copyright © 2011 British Crown copyright, the Met Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: Ecology, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.