ALBERT

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Explanation in terms of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) has become standard practice in evolutionary developmental biology (evo-devo). In this paper, we argue that GRNs fail to provide a robust, mechanistic, and dynamic understanding of the developmental processes underlying the genotype–phenotype map. Explanations based on GRNs are limited by three main problems: (1) the problem of genetic determinism, (2) the problem of correspondence between network structure and function, and (3) the problem of diachronicity, as in the unfolding of causal interactions over time. Overcoming these problems requires dynamic mechanistic explanations, which rely not only on mechanistic decomposition, but also on dynamic modeling to reconstitute the causal chain of events underlying the process of development. We illustrate the power and potential of this type of explanation with a number of biological case studies that integrate empirical investigations with mathematical modeling and analysis. We conclude with general considerations on the relation between mechanism and process in evo-devo.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The international debate about trade imbalances often puts the focus on the role of domestic GDP/foreign GDP and the role of real exchange rate changes – with respect to the latter adjustment channel, the standard question is whether or not the Marshall-Lerner condition is fulfilled. While recent trade literature has focused on exchange rate pass-through the role of FDI has not been much discussed. With outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and inward FDI becoming increasingly important, the question about the real exchange rate impact on the trade balance has to be restated as imports are proportionate to real gross national income and this indeed implies a new Marshall-Lerner condition. It is shown that with outward cumulated FDI, the modified condition is stricter than the traditional case and with both outward FDI and inward FDI, the elasticity requirement is ambiguous. “FDI globalization” might go along with unpleasant trade imbalance problems so that additional empirical research is needed as well as stronger international policy cooperation as high trade balance deficits/high trade balance surplus positions could be rather difficult to correct through exchange rate adjustments only. Looking at the import elasticities for all partner countries of the US – or country x – together is quite misleading for policymakers.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In the present paper, we investigate the effects of the disagreement in expectations about exchange rate on the disagreements in expectations about inflation and about monetary policy interest rate in Brazil. The analysis seeks to verify whether the uncertainty related to the future behavior of the exchange rate affects both the process of inflation expectation formation and the process of monetary policy interest rate expectation formation. Besides, the paper investigates the role of monetary policy credibility in mitigating the effects of the disagreement in expectations about exchange rate on the disagreements in expectations about inflation and about monetary policy interest rate. The results indicate that the disagreement in expectations about exchange rate impacts the disagreements in expectations about both inflation and monetary policy interest rate. In addition, the findings indicate that credibility is capable of mitigating the transmission of uncertainties about the exchange rate to uncertainties about the inflation rate and the monetary policy interest rate. Thus, our estimates reveal that (i) the marginal effect of disagreement in expectations about exchange rate on the disagreement in expectations about inflation decreases with the level of credibility and, (ii) the marginal effect of disagreement in expectations about exchange rate on the disagreement in expectations about monetary policy interest rate decreases as credibility increases.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉I respond to recent criticism of my analysis of the permissive-instructive distinction and outline problems with the alternative analysis on offer. Amongst other problems, I argue that the use of formal measures is unclear and unmotivated, that the distinction is conflated with others that are not equivalent, and that no good reasons are provided for thinking the alternative model or formal measure tracks what biologists are interested in. I also clarify my own analysis where it has been misunderstood or ignored.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This critical note responds to Guiaşu and Tindale’s “Logical fallacies and invasion biology,” from our perspective as ecologists and philosophers of science engaged in debates about invasion biology and invasive species. We agree that “the level of charges and dismissals” surrounding these debates might be “unhealthy” and that “it will be very difficult for dialogues to move forward unless genuine attempts are made to understand the positions being held and to clarify the terms involved.” Although they raise several important scientific, conceptual, and ethical issues at the foundations of invasion biology, we believe Guiaşu and Tindale’s attempts to clarify the debate were unsuccessful. Like some other critics of the field, they tend to misrepresent invasion biology by cherry-picking and constructing “straw people,” inaccurately portraying invasion biology, and thus failing to elevate the dialogue. In this critique, we clarify areas in the invasion biology literature misrepresented by Guiaşu and Tindale. We attempt to provide a more balanced view of areas of reasonable debate within invasion biology, including disputes about empirical evidence, diverse risk attitudes, and other diverse ethical commitments.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This paper empirically investigates the three-way linkages amongst foreign direct investment (FDI), shadow economy and institutional quality by applying the panel dynamic simultaneous-equation modelling approach for a sample of 19 developing Asian countries over the period of 2002–2015. The empirical results by two-step System GMM show that institutional quality attracts inward FDI and FDI in its turn improves institutional quality, institutional quality is not only the cause but also the consequence of the shadow economy, and FDI inflows help reduce shadow economies though the channel of institutional improvement and lower shadow economies – which increase institutional quality – encourage FDI inflows. The empirical insights suggest helpful policy implications to deal with these dynamics simultaneously.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This paper investigates empirically the relationship between specialisation in the production of tradable output and the current account balance. According to the ‘tradability hypothesis’ that is examined, countries that specialise in highly tradable sectors tend to run current account surpluses while countries with dominant non-tradable sectors risk running current account deficits. In order to test this hypothesis empirically we develop a value-added based tradability index which captures the tradability of a country’s output. Applied to a large sample of European countries, our empirical model provides strong evidence in favour of the tradability hypothesis. The main policy implication is that the anxieties about ‘de-industrialisation’ in large parts of Europe seem justified with a view to growing external imbalances.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉We call 〈em〉affective brainocentrism〈/em〉 the tendency to privilege the brain over other parts of the organism when defining or explaining emotions. We distinguish two versions of this tendency. According to 〈em〉brain-sufficient〈/em〉, emotional states are entirely realized by brain processes. According to 〈em〉brain-master〈/em〉, emotional states are realized by both brain and bodily processes, but the latter are entirely driven by the brain: the brain is the master regulator of bodily processes. We argue that both these claims are problematic, and we draw on physiological accounts of stress to make our main case. These accounts illustrate the existence of complex interactions between the brain and endocrine systems, the immune system, the enteric nervous system, and even gut microbiota. We argue that, because of these complex brain–body interactions, the brain cannot be isolated and identified as the basis of stress. We also mention recent evidence suggesting that complex brain–body interactions characterize the physiology of depression and anxiety. Finally, we call for an alternative dynamical, systemic, and embodied approach to the study of the physiology of emotions that does not privilege the brain, but rather aims at understanding how mutually regulating brain and bodily processes jointly realize a variety of emotional states.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The term adaptive radiation has been recurrently used to describe evolutionary patterns of several lineages, and has been proposed as the main driver of biological diversification. Different definitions and criteria have been proposed to distinguish an adaptive radiation, and the current literature shows disagreements as to how radiating lineages should be circumscribed. Inconsistencies increase when authors try to differentiate a clade under adaptive radiation from clades evolving under ‘regular’ speciation with adaptation, a pattern anticipated and predicted by the evolutionary theory in any lineage. The most important disagreement is as to which evolutionary rate (phenotypical or taxonomical) authors analyze to characterize a radiation; a discussion embedded in a prevailing inability to provide mechanistic explanations of the relationship among evolutionary rates. The union of pattern and process in the same term, the inadequacy of reported null hypotheses, and the frequent use of ad hoc comparisons between lineages have also contributed to the lack of consensus. A rigorous use of available terms and the articulation of solid criteria with objective methodologies in distinguishing evolutionary patterns are imperative. Given the difficulties in detecting adaptation, the use of the ‘adaptive’ term to qualify a radiation should be avoided unless methodologically tested. As an unambiguous method to distinguish radiating lineages, the statistical detection of significant increases in taxonomic diversification rates on monophyletic lineages can be considered a distinctive signature of a radiation. After recognizing this pattern, causal hypotheses explaining them can be stated, as well as correlates with other rates of evolution.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Using event-study techniques, we investigate the impact of Brexit-related events on the corporate bond yield spreads in the United Kingdom and Eurozone, respectively. We want to find out whether Brexit-related news, including the Brexit referendum itself, had an impact on the risk conditions in those two corporate bond markets. Our estimation results indicate that the announcement of the referendum result is associated with increasing credit spreads in the UK and EA. However, only the actual announcement of the UK referendum result itself had an influence on the credit spreads. Furthermore, we distinguish between the financial and the non-financial economic sectors in order to analyze more specific sector-related effects of the referendum event. Our estimation results suggest that UK credit spreads were more strongly influenced by the announcement of the results of the Brexit referendum than credit bond spreads in the Eurozone were. Finally, we split our sample into pre-referendum and post-referendum periods to consider the potential changing evaluation of the determinants of corporate bond spreads due to altering risk pricing triggered by the Brexit referendum result. We find that the effect of credit default risk is far stronger and plays a significant role in the post-referendum period in UK and EA, respectively.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This paper considers the implications of the UK leaving the European Union (EU) for ‘The City’ of London and the wider UK financial sector and for the EU’s Capital Markets Union (CMU) project. The extent of the impact of Brexit through job losses in London and gains in EU financial centres and the relocation of financial sector business will depend on the degree of ‘hardness’ or ‘softness’ of Brexit and indeed whether an exit treaty deal is struck or ‘no-Brexit’ follows a second referendum. At the time of writing (in November 2018) the likely denouement was far from clear. For the EU’s flagship CMU project, the loss of the core London capital markets will require the construction of a more fragmented system based in a number of cities within the EU. In this digital age, the various hubs can perhaps be fully networked whilst better serving distinct regional needs.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉There is considerable correspondence between theories and models used in biology and the social sciences. One type of model that is in use in both biology and the social sciences is the fitness landscape model. The properties of the fitness landscape model have been applied rather freely in the social domain. This is partly due to the versatility of the model, but it is also due to the difficulties of transferring a model to another domain. We will demonstrate that in order to transfer the biological fitness landscape model to the social science it needs to be substantially modified. We argue that the syntactic structure of the model can remain unaltered, whilst the semantic dimension requires considerable modification in order to fit the specific phenomena in the social sciences. We will first discuss the origin as well as the basic properties of the model. Subsequently, we will demonstrate the considerations and modifications pertaining to such a transfer by showing how and why we altered the model to analyse collective decision-making processes. We will demonstrate that the properties of the target domain allow for a transfer of the syntactic structure but don’t tolerate the semantic transfer.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This paper uses a small and simple theoretical DSGE model in order to conduct some exercises in comparative dynamics of shocks that can be associated with Brexit. We do so by comparing two policy environments, one where a flexible macroprudential regulation (FMR) is in place and one, where this is not the case. This enables us to evaluate whether and to what extent FMR helps to mitigate the Brexit related shocks. We conclude that FMR would indeed be helpful, although in quantitative terms only slightly so.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Using event-study techniques, we investigate the impact of Brexit-related events on the spot exchange rate of the British pound against the euro and the US dollar. We want to find out whether Brexit-related news, including the Brexit referendum itself, has an impact on British pound exchange rates. By splitting our Brexit-related events into ‘good’ Brexit news and ‘bad’ Brexit news, we find that Brexit news has an impact on British pound exchange rates. Bad Brexit news is associated with a depreciation of the British pound against the euro and the US dollar whereas ‘good’ Brexit news appreciates the Pound against the euro. Furthermore, our empirical results suggest that market participants display a delayed reaction to bad Brexit news. As the referendum has clearly a significant impact on both British pound/euro and British pound/US dollar exchange rate volatility, the impact of Brexit news is only for the British pound/euro exchange rate volatility measurable. Besides the asymmetric volatility pattern towards positive and negative shocks in general, we find that the statistically significance and the magnitude of the impact of good Brexit news is higher than these of bad Brexit news. Concerning the British pound/US dollar exchange rate volatility, our results display a weak presence of volatility asymmetry in terms of shocks and good/bad Brexit news, respectively.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In this commentary of Koonin’s target paper, we defend an extended view of CRISPR-Cas immunity by arguing that CRISPR-Cas includes, but cannot be reduced to, defence against nonself. CRISPR-Cas systems can target endogenous elements (for example in DNA repair) and tolerate exogenous elements (for example some phages). We conclude that the vocabulary of “defence” and “nonself” might be misleading when describing CRISPR-Cas systems.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This paper analyzes the international monetary and financial implications of the UK's potential exit from the European Union, focusing on the impact on cross-border capital flows, on London's status as an international financial center, on the roles of sterling and the euro as international and reserve currencies, and on the roles of the UK and EU in the institutions of global governance (the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Group of Seven, Group of Twenty, and Financial Stability Board. All such conclusions are necessarily speculative at this stage, but the implications are potentially farreaching.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The CRISPR-Cas systems of bacterial and archaeal adaptive immunity have become a household name among biologists and even the general public thanks to the unprecedented success of the new generation of genome editing tools utilizing Cas proteins. However, the fundamental biological features of CRISPR-Cas are of no lesser interest and have major impacts on our understanding of the evolution of antivirus defense, host-parasite coevolution, self versus non-self discrimination and mechanisms of adaptation. CRISPR-Cas systems present the best known case in point for Lamarckian evolution, i.e. generation of heritable, adaptive genomic changes in response to encounters with external factors, in this case, foreign nucleic acids. CRISPR-Cas systems employ multiple mechanisms of self versus non-self discrimination but, as is the case with immune systems in general, are nevertheless costly because autoimmunity cannot be eliminated completely. In addition to the autoimmunity, the fitness cost of CRISPR-Cas systems appears to be determined by their inhibitory effect on horizontal gene transfer, curtailing evolutionary innovation. Hence the dynamic evolution of CRISPR-Cas loci that are frequently lost and (re)acquired by archaea and bacteria. Another fundamental biological feature of CRISPR-Cas is its intimate connection with programmed cell death and dormancy induction in microbes. In this and, possibly, other immune systems, active immune response appears to be coupled to a different form of defense, namely, “altruistic” shutdown of cellular functions resulting in protection of neighboring cells. Finally, analysis of the evolutionary connections of Cas proteins reveals multiple contributions of mobile genetic elements (MGE) to the origin of various components of CRISPR-Cas systems, furthermore, different biological systems that function by genome manipulation appear to have evolved convergently from unrelated MGE. The shared features of adaptive defense systems and MGE, namely the ability to recognize and cleave unique sites in genomes, make them ideal candidates for genome editing and engineering tools.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Brexit has been and continues to be a huge economic burden for the UK economy and its partners. We estimate that the Eurozone as a whole missed around EUR60bn of potential outlets on the UK market since the Brexit vote. It may take a last minute decision to avoid the costs of a hard Brexit, which are significant and underestimated by many prominent proponents of Brexit. In our view, a “no deal Brexit” would trigger two consecutive years of recession in the UK and cut Eurozone growth by at least −0.5 pp. per year. A “no Brexit deal” would have strongly negative repercussions for the UK’s trading partners, especially for Germany. Exports in EUR terms fell by almost −6% in 2016–17 cumulated (or EUR5bn in value terms) and export losses should reach EUR8bn per year in a “no Brexit deal” scenario. The type of a Free Trade Agreement between the UK and the EU is most essential in the long run. We estimate UK growth to average 1.5% over the transition period, half of the 2000–07 average for example.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Evolutionary psychology tends to be associated with a massively modular cognitive architecture. On this framework of human cognition, an assembly of specialized information processors called modules developed under selection pressures encountered throughout the phylogenic history of hominids. The coordinated activity of domain-specific modules carries out all the processes of belief fixation, abstract reasoning, and other facets of central cognition. Against the massive modularity thesis, I defend an account of 〈em〉systemic functional adaptedness〈/em〉, according to which non-modular systems emerged because of adaptive problems imposed by the intrinsic physiology of the evolving human brain. The proposed reformulation of evolutionary theorizing draws from neural network models and Cummins’ (J Philos 72(20):741–765, 〈span〉1975〈/span〉) account of systemic functions to identify selection pressures that gave rise to non-modular, domain-general mechanisms in cognitive architecture.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The City of London has been the global leader for the provision of international banking services since the 1980s when Thatcher-era deregulation, followed by the EU single market program, stimulated big international FDI inflows – mainly of US banks – into the UK. The “single passport” rule allowed international banks in the UK to serve the whole of the EU28 market from London whose supply-side dynamics contributed to economic growth in the UK and a rising output share of the UK banking system in British GDP. With the expected BREXIT, there are serious challenges for the City since the passporting of banks will end and the regulatory framework will be adjusted; EU equivalence rules for UK banks that might be valid after the implementation of BREXIT cannot be a substitute for passporting so that lower FDI inflows and higher FDI outflows in the banking sector should be expected; inflow dynamics should also be shaped by international M&A dynamics influenced by the real Pound depreciation in 2016, while the prospects of reduced EU market access post-BREXIT also became relevant in 2017/18 and should influence the FDI dynamics of the UK – a similar pattern might occur in the BREXIT implementation year (i.e. 2019) and the following adjustment period where the change in City banks’ access to the single market will matter; as regards the latter, quasi-tariff-jumping FDI outflows from the UK can be expected where the FDI of City of London banks could go primarily to the EU27/Eurozone or the US. The empirical findings confirm the expected FDI pattern for the UK banking sector – overall FDI inflows in the wake of the BREXIT referendum have increased, in line with the Froot-Stein effect, while FDI inflows to the UK banking sector have declined.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The puzzle of how altruism can evolve has been at the center of recent debates over Hamilton’s Rule, inclusive fitness, and kin-selection. In this paper, I use recent debates over altruism and Hamilton’s legacy as an example to illustrate a more general problem in evolutionary theory that has philosophical significance; I attempt to explain this significance and to draw a variety of conclusions about it. The problem is that specific behaviours and general concepts of organism agency and intentionality are defined in terms of concepts of evolutionary “costs” and “benefits,” and these terms have determined the role that agency should play in evolutionary explanation. However, costs, benefits, and agency are not only or even best conceived through evolutionary effects in a biological context. The paper proceeds as follows: first, I explain how the issue of agency relates to the evolutionary puzzle of altruism. Next, I discuss how questions about agency have figured in recent debates over Hamilton’s legacy. In the final section, I argue that Denis Walsh’s “situated Darwinism,” which attempts to return the organism to central status in biological explanation, offers a more productive route for thinking about different forms of costs, benefits, and agency. Finally, I argue that the upshot of all this is that there may be many different, and equally valid, ways to express what organisms are doing and how they are behaving based on different currencies of cost and benefit—even if these may stand in some tension. I illustrate this through returning to the case of altruism and using examples to show that even in non-humans there can be many forms of altruism, even if they are not all 〈em〉biological altruism〈/em〉 as defined in the conventional evolutionary terms.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In their paper “Is psychopathy a mental disease?”, Thomas Nadelhoffer and Walter Sinnott-Armstrong argue that according to any plausible account of mental disorder, neural and psychological abnormalities correlated with psychopathy should be regarded as signs of a mental disorder. I oppose this conclusion by arguing that at least on a naturalistically grounded account, such as Wakefield’s ‘Harmful Dysfunction’ view, currently available empirical data and evolutionary considerations indicate that psychopathy is not a mental disorder.〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉The Article had been published accidentally in an uncorrected and unapproved state and therefore had to be updated.〈/p〉

Description: 〈span〉 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In this essay, I discuss Dennett’s 〈em〉From Bacteria to Bach and Back: The Evolution of Minds〈/em〉 (hereafter From Bacteria) and Godfrey Smith’s 〈em〉Other Minds: The Octopus and The Evolution of Intelligent Life〈/em〉 (hereafter Other Minds) from a methodological perspective. I show that these both instantiate what I call ‘synthetic philosophy.’ They are both Darwinian philosophers of science who draw on each other’s work (with considerable mutual admiration). In what follows I first elaborate on synthetic philosophy in light of From Bacteria and Other Minds; I also explain my reasons for introducing the term; and I close by looking at the function of Darwinism in contemporary synthetic philosophy.〈/p〉 〈/span〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Although the concept of modularity is pervasive across fields and disciplines, philosophers and scientists use the term in a variety of different ways. This paper identifies two distinct ways of thinking about modularity, and considers what makes them similar and different. For philosophers of mind and cognitive science, 〈em〉cognitive modularity〈/em〉 helps explain the capacities of brains to process sundry and distinct kinds of informational input. For philosophy of biology and evolutionary science, 〈em〉biological modularity〈/em〉 helps explain the capacity of random evolutionary processes to give rise to highly complex and sophisticated biological systems. Although these different ways of thinking about modularity are largely distinct, this paper proposes a unifying feature common to both: 〈em〉isolability,〈/em〉 or the capacity of subsystems to undergo changes without resulting in substantial changes to neighboring or interconnected subsystems.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In the field of placebo studies residual disagreement about the terminology ‘placebo’ and ‘placebo effect’ still persists. We differentiate between the conceptualization of placebos in clinical trials; and placebo effects understood as a psychobiological phenomenon. With respect to the latter, we argue that a scientific ‘placebo paradigm’ has emerged, indicating that—at least among placebo scientists—there exists relatively stable consensus about how to conceive of placebo effects. We claim that existence of a placebo paradigm does not protect concepts from revision; nonetheless, we argue that scientific progress is dependent on, and guided by relative conceptual stability. Therefore, to mount persuasive arguments for conceptual revision in respect of ‘placebo effects’ we argue, critics either need to defend the claim that a placebo paradigm is not underway, or that there are major scientific failings in respect of it. With these considerations in mind we examine three alternative proposals for conceptual reform: Grünbaum/Howick’s relativity models of placebo concepts; Moerman/Brody’s meaning response; and Nunn/Turner’s proposal for conceptual eliminativism. We derive two conclusions from this evaluation. First, we conclude that no convincing arguments have so far been presented for conceptual overhaul of ‘placebo effects.’ Notwithstanding this analysis, we conclude that refinement of this concept is likely. Second, we agree with Turner and Nunn that the term ‘placebo’ in the context of randomized controlled trials remains a source of confusion for many researchers, risking the design and scientific integrity of clinical findings. Therefore, in these contexts, replacing the term ‘placebo’ with ‘control’ is justified.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Ng (Biol Philos 10(3):255–285, 〈span〉1995〈/span〉. 〈span〉https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00852469〈/span〉) models the evolutionary dynamics underlying the existence of suffering and enjoyment and concludes that there is likely to be more suffering than enjoyment in nature. In this paper, we find an error in Ng’s model that, when fixed, negates the original conclusion. Instead, the model offers only ambiguity as to whether suffering or enjoyment predominates in nature. We illustrate the dynamics around suffering and enjoyment with the most plausible parameters. In our illustration, we find surprising results: the rate of failure to reproduce can improve or worsen average welfare depending on other characteristics of a species. Our illustration suggests that for organisms with more intense conscious experiences, the balance of enjoyment and suffering may lean more toward suffering. We offer some suggestions for empirical study of wild animal welfare. We conclude by noting that recent writings on wild animal welfare should be revised based on this correction to have a somewhat less pessimistic view of nature.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Scientists have been arguing for more than 25 years about whether it is a good idea to collect voucher specimens from particularly vulnerable biological populations. Some think that, obviously, scientists should not be harvesting (read: killing) organisms from, for instance, critically endangered species. Others think that, obviously, it is the special job of scientists to collect precisely such information before any chance of retrieving it is forever lost. The character, extent, longevity, and span of the ongoing disagreement indicates that this is likely to be a hard problem to solve. Nonetheless, the aim of this paper is to help field biologists figure out what do to when collecting a voucher specimen risks extinction. Here I present and assess varying practices of specimen collection for both extant (i.e., neontological) and extinct (i.e., paleontological) species in order to compare and contrast cases where extinction risk both is and is not a problem. When it comes to taking vouchers from extant species at some risk of extinction, I determine that those advocating for conservative approaches to collection as well as those advocating for liberal information-gathering practices have good reasons to assess things in the way they each do. This means that there is unlikely to be a decisive, one-size-fits-all response to this problem. Still, progress can be made. We can acknowledge the risks of proceeding in either manner, as well as the uncertainty about how best to proceed (which will be deep in some cases). We can proceed as thoughtfully as possible, and be ready to articulate a rationale for whichever procedure is used in any particular case.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉I offer four ways of distinguishing paleobiology from neontology, and from this develop a sketch of the philosophy of paleobiology. I then situate and describe the papers in the special issue 〈em〉Paleobiology and Philosophy,〈/em〉 and reflect on the value and prospects of paleontology-focused philosophy.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Both paleobiology and investigations of ‘major evolutionary transitions’ are intimately concerned with the macroevolutionary shape of life. It is surprising, then, how little studies of major transitions are informed by paleontological perspectives and. I argue that this disconnect is partially justified because paleobiological investigation is typically ‘phenomena-led’, while investigations of major transitions (at least as commonly understood) are ‘theory-led’. The distinction turns on evidential relevance: in the former case, evidence is relevant in virtue of its relationship to some phenomena or hypotheses concerning those phenomena; in the latter, evidence is relevant in virtue of providing insights into, or tests of, an abstract body of theory. Because paleobiological data is by-and-large irrelevant to the theory which underwrites the traditional conception of major transitions, it is of limited use to that research program. I suggest that although the traditional conception of major transitions is neither ad-hoc or problematically incomplete, its promise of providing unificatory explanations of the transitions is unlikely to be kept. Further, examining paleobiological investigations of mass extinctions and organogenesis, I further argue that (1) whether or not transitions in paleobiology count as ‘major’ turns on how we conceive of major transitions (that is, the notion is sensitive to investigative context); (2) although major transitions potentially have a unified theoretical basis, recent developments suggest that investigations are becoming increasingly phenomena-led; (3) adopting phenomena-led investigations maximizes the evidence available to paleobiologists.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Should the norms of honor cultures be classified as a variety of morality? In this paper, we address this question by considering various empirical bases on which norms can be taxonomically organised. This question is of interest both as an exercise in philosophy of social science, and for its potential implications in meta-ethical debates. Using recent data from anthropology and evolutionary game theory, we argue that the most productive classification emphasizes the strategic role that moral norms play in generating assurance and stabilizing cooperation. Because honor norms have a similar functional role, this account entails honor norms are indeed a variety of moral norm. We also propose an explanation of why honor norms occur in a relatively unified, phenotypically distinctive cluster, thereby explaining why it is tempting to regard them as taxonomically distinct.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This article is a study of the role and use of evidence in the evaluation of claims in the historical sciences. In order to do this, I develop a “snapshot” approach to Toulmin schemas. This framework is applied to the case of Archezoa, an initially supported then eventually rejected hypothesis in evolutionary biology. From this case study, I criticize Cleland’s “smoking gun” account of the methodology of the historical sciences. I argue that Toulmin schemas are conceptually precise tools that allow for the building of enriched reconstructions of evidential reasoning. From the application of this framework, I discuss three ways in which the construction and use of facts in the historical sciences are theory-laden. Despite its inherent limits, TS are heuristically useful tools to identify epistemic moves that could be further investigated. It also sheds light on the positive roles of speculation in the historical sciences. Finally, I argue that it provides a context-specific and individuated understanding of hypothesis evaluation in the historical sciences. Overall, I think the application of Toulmin schemas to cases of evidential reasoning in the historical sciences is a promising descriptive and heuristic tool for philosophers of science.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉“Ancient DNA Research” is the practice of extracting, sequencing, and analyzing degraded DNA from dead organisms that are hundreds to thousands of years old. Today, many researchers are interested in adapting state-of-the-art molecular biological techniques and high-throughput sequencing technologies to optimize the recovery of DNA from fossils, then use it for studying evolutionary history. However, the recovery of DNA from fossils has also fueled the idea of resurrecting extinct species, especially as its emergence corresponded with the book and movie 〈em〉Jurassic Park〈/em〉 in the 1990s. In this paper, I use historical material, interviews with scientists, and philosophical literature to argue that the search for DNA from fossils can be characterized as a data-driven and celebrity-driven practice. Philosophers have recently argued the need to seriously consider the role of data-driven inquiry in the sciences, and likewise, this history highlights the need to seriously consider the role of celebrity in shaping the kind of research that gets pursued, funded, and ultimately completed. On this point, this history highlights that the traditional philosophical and scientific distinctions between data-driven and hypothesis-driven research are not always useful for understanding the process and practice of science. Consequently, I argue that the celebrity status of a particular research practice can be considered as a “serious epistemic strategy” that researchers, as well as editors and funders, employ when making choices about their research and publication processes. This interplay between celebrity and methodology matters for the epistemology of science.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Organisms leave a variety of traces in the fossil record. Among these traces, vertebrate and invertebrate paleontologists conventionally recognize a distinction between the remains of an organism’s phenotype (body fossils) and the remains of an organism’s life activities (trace fossils). The same convention recognizes body fossils as biological structures and trace fossils as geological objects. This convention explains some curious practices in the classification, as with the distinction between taxa for trace fossils and for tracemakers. I consider the distinction between “parallel taxonomies,” or parataxonomies, which privileges some kinds of fossil taxa as “natural” and others as “artificial.” The motivations for and consequences of this practice are inconsistent. By comparison, I examine an alternative system of classification used by paleobotanists that regards all fossil taxa as “artificially” split. While this system has the potential to inflate the number of taxa with which paleontologists work, the system offers greater consistency than conventional practices. Weighing the strengths and weaknesses of each system, I recommend that paleontologists should adopt the paleobotanical system more broadly.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉What is the relationship between evolutionary contingency and diversity? The evolutionary contingency thesis emphasizes dependency relations and chance as the hallmarks of evolution. While contingency can be destructive of, for example, the fragile and complex dynamics in an ecosystem, I will mainly focus on the productive or causal aspect of contingency for a particular sort of diversity. There are many sorts of diversities: Gould is most famous for his diversity-to-decimation model, which includes disparate body plans distinguishing different phyla. However, structural diversity construed more broadly spans scales, such as organization in and among cells, structural arrangements and biomechanics on various scales, and even the profile of ancestor-descendent relationships or community structure of interactions within ecosystems. By focusing on stochastic processes in contingent evolution, I argue that contingency causes structural diversity. Specifically, I focus on the plurality of structural types of cells, genetic codes, and phyla diversity as case studies.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Lately there has been a wave of criticism of the concept of living fossils. First, recent research has challenged the status of paradigmatic living fossil taxa, such as coelacanths, cycads, and tuataras. Critics have also complained that the living fossil concept is vague and/or ambiguous, and that it is responsible for misconceptions about evolution. This paper defends a particular phylogenetic conception of living fossils, or taxa that (a) exhibit deep prehistoric morphological stability; (b) contain few extant species; and (c) make a high contribution to phylogenetic diversity. The paper shows how this conception of living fossils can make sense of recent research on contested cases. The phylogenetic living fossil concept has both theoretical and practical importance: theoretical, because it picks out an important explanatory target for evolutionary theory; and practical, because it picks out taxa that we might wish to prioritize for conservation. The best way to defend the 〈em〉concept〈/em〉 of living fossils is to get clearer about the reasons for defending living fossil 〈em〉taxa〈/em〉.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Philosophers of science are well aware that theories are underdetermined by data. But what about the data? Scientific data are selected and processed representations or pieces of nature. What is useless context and what is valuable specimen, as well as how specimens are processed for study, are not obvious or predetermined givens. Instead, they are decisions made by scientists and other research workers, such as technicians, that produce different outcomes for the data. Vertebrate fossils provide a revealing case of this data-processing, because they are embedded in rock that often matches the fossils’ color and texture, requiring an expert eye to judge where the fossil/context interface is. Fossil preparators then permanently define this interface by chiseling away the material they identify as rock. As a result, fossil specimens can emerge in multiple possible forms depending on the preparator’s judgment, skill, and chosen tools. A prepared fossil then is not yet data but potential data, following Leonelli’s (Philos Sci 82:810–821, 〈span〉2015〈/span〉. 〈span〉https://doi.org/10.1086/684083〈/span〉) relational framework in which data are defined as evidence that scientists have used to support a proposed theory. This paper draws on ethnographic evidence to assess how scientists overcome this underdetermination of specimens, as potential data, in addition to the underdetermination of theories and of data, to successfully construct specimen-based knowledge. Among other strategies, paleontology maintains a division of labor between data-makers and theory-makers. This distinction serves to justify the omission of preparators’ nonstandard, individualized techniques from scientific publications. This separation has benefits for both scientists and technicians; however, it restricts knowledge production by preventing scientists from understanding how the pieces of nature they study were processed into researchable specimens.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉BREXIT is a historical step for the UK and the EU27 which could bring a strong Pound deprecation, an increase in risk premiums for British bonds and a transitory rise of financial market volatility plus a long-term reduction of economic growth in the UK; but also risks for the EU27. New BREXIT aspects are considered in an enhanced Branson model. Macroprudential supervision is a crucial policy challenge for EU28 in the context of BREXIT and the European Systemic Risk Board thus should have a critical role in 2019 and the following years. The ESRB should timely analyze the potential risk of BREXIT and consider adequate policy options to reduce or eliminate risks. Contract continuity as well as cooperation in prudential supervision between the EU27 and the UK stand for BREXIT-related problems that could create financial market stability – as is the BREXIT-induced UK deregulation pressure. EU prudential supervision post-BREXIT faces problems since a very large part of EU27 wholesale banking markets in the UK and thus not regulated by the EU after March 29, 2019. The EU Commission’s competence for EU trade policy as well as international investment treaties gives the EU the opportunity to offer the UK not only a – limited – Free Trade Agreement but an international investment treaty as well, including options for global cooperation. Several policy innovations are proposed which could help to limit risk associated with instability.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉After decades of debates about species concepts, there is broad agreement that species are evolving lineages. However, species classification is still in a state of disorder: different methods of delimitation lead to competing outcomes for the same organisms, and the groups recognised as species are of widely different kinds. This paper considers whether this problem can be resolved by developing a unitary scale for evolutionary independence. Such a scale would show clearly when groups are comparable and allow taxonomists to choose a conventional threshold of independence for species status. Existing measurement approaches to species delimitation are typically shot down by what I call the heterogeneity objection, according to which independently evolving groups are too heterogeneous to be captured by a single scale. I draw a parallel with the measurement of temperature to argue that this objection does not provide sufficient reasons to abandon the measurement approach, and that such an approach may even help to make the vague notion of evolutionary independence more precise.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Previous studies that assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on a country’s inpayments and outpayments assumed that such effects are symmetric. The evidence from the literature reveals that import and export prices react to exchange rate changes in an asymmetric manner. This implies that export earnings and payments for imports should also react to exchange rate changes in an asymmetric manner. We demonstrate this by using Shin et al.’s (〈span〉2014〈/span〉) nonlinear ARDL approach and inpayments and outpayments of the U.S. with her 15 trading partners. We find evidence of short-run as well as long-run asymmetric effects in more than half of the models, though the findings are found to be partner specific.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This paper argues that a plant together with the symbiotic fungus attached to its roots, a 〈em〉mycorrhizal collective〈/em〉, is an evolutionary individual, and further, that mycorrhizal individuality has important implications for evolutionary theory. Theoretical individuation is defended and then employed to show that mycorrhizal collectives function as 〈em〉interactors〈/em〉 according to David Hull’s 〈em〉replicator〈/em〉–〈em〉interactor〈/em〉 model of evolution by natural selection, and because they have the potential to engage in 〈em〉pseudo〈/em〉-〈em〉vertical transmission〈/em〉, mycorrhizal collectives also function as Darwinian individuals, according to Peter Godfrey-Smith’s 〈em〉Darwinian Populations〈/em〉 model of evolution by natural selection. Mycorrhizae in nature usually connect the roots of multiple plants, so mycorrhizal individuality entails the existence of overlapping evolutionary individuals, and because the potential to engage in pseudo-vertical transmission comes in degrees, it follows that these overlapping evolutionary individuals also come in degrees. I suggest here that the degree of evolutionary individuality in a symbiotic collective corresponds to its probability of reproducing with vertical or pseudo-vertical transmission. This probability constitutes a fourth parameter of graded Darwinian individuality in collective reproducers and warrants an update to Godfrey-Smith’s 3D model.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The phenomenon of regression toward the mean is notoriously liable to be overlooked or misunderstood; regression fallacies are easy to commit. But even when regression phenomena are duly recognized, it remains perplexing how they can feature in explanations. This article develops a philosophical account of regression explanations as “statistically autonomous” explanations that cannot be deepened by adducing details about causal histories, even if the explananda as such are embedded in the causal structure of the world. That regression explanations have statistical autonomy was first suggested by Ian Hacking and has recently been defended and elaborated by André Ariew, Yasha Rohwer, and Collin Rice. However, I will argue that these analyses fail to capture what regression’s statistical autonomy consists in and how it sets regression explanations apart from other kinds of explanation. The alternative account I develop also shows what is amiss with a recent denial of regression’s statistical autonomy. Marc Lange has argued that facts that can be explained as regression phenomena can in principle also be explained by citing a conjunction of causal histories. The account of regression explanation developed here shows that his argument is based on a misunderstanding of the nature of statistical autonomy. 〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Part of Allen et al.’s criticism of Hamilton’s rule makes sense only if we are interested in social adaptation rather than merely social selection. Under the assumption that we are interested in casually modeling social adaptation, I illustrate how graphical causal models of social adaptation can be useful for predicting evolution by adaptation. I then argue for two consequences of this approach given some of the recent philosophical literature. I argue Birch’s claim that the proper way to understand Hamilton’s rule is as providing an organizational framework for causal models is incorrect. I provide an account of a causally adequate decomposition of evolutionary change due to social adaptation and show that my account is superior to Okasha’s.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The financial cycle can play a decisive role in the transmission of monetary policy decisions. The impact of these decisions is amplified when the financial cycle is booming, and it is compressed when this cycle is busting. Considering this amplifier/divider mechanism in a semi-structural NKM, estimated for the US economy using Bayesian techniques, confirms this conclusion and improves the decision of raising or lowering the interest rate.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The idea that cognition makes use of one or more “languages of thought” remains central to much cognitive-scientific and philosophical theorizing. And yet, virtually no attention has been paid to the question of how a language of thought might evolve in the first place. In this article, I take some steps towards addressing this issue. With the aid of the so-called Sender–Receiver framework, I elucidate a family of distinctions and processes which enable us to see how languages of thought might evolve via a series of small, incremental changes. While much work doubtlessly remains to be done in this area, I hope to at least show that there need be nothing mysterious about the existence of languages of thought on evolutionary grounds.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In a recent paper, Chris Haufe paints a provocative portrait of the late paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould. His principal aim is to resolve a “paradox” arising from a prima facie inconsistent pair of commitments: (a) Gould believed that the biological facts could have been otherwise (the Replay Thesis), and (b) Gould believed that there are evolutionary laws. In order to resolve this paradox, Haufe makes two substantive claims: (1) Gould was aware of the challenges that the Replay Thesis posed for a law-centered science of evolution, even early in his career, and (2) Gould endeavored to meet these challenges by deploying the “species-as-particles approach.” In this paper, I put pressure on both of these claims. By examining the goals and methods of Gould’s first “nomothetic research program,” the science of form, I show that it does not fit the picture of nomothetic science that Haufe illustrates. Additionally, I show that no straightforward connection exists between Gould’s understanding of contingency and his (short-lived) adoption of the species-as-particles approach. I propose that Gould’s career can be usefully split into three periods, each of which employed a distinct strategy for establishing distinctively paleontological contributions to evolutionary theory.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Psychoneural reduction has been debated extensively in the philosophy of neuroscience. In this article I will evaluate metascientific approaches that claim direct molecular and cellular explanations of cognitive functions. I will initially consider the issues involved in linking cellular properties to behaviour from the general perspective of neural circuits. These circuits that integrate the molecular and cellular components underlying cognition and behaviour, making consideration of circuit properties relevant to reductionist debates. I will then apply this general perspective to specific systems where psychoneural reduction has been claimed, namely hippocampal long-term potentiation and the 〈em〉Aplysia〈/em〉 gill-withdrawal reflex.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This paper aims to investigate the relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth in the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy and the United States) for the period of 1990–2015. The study used the Pesaran CADF panel second generation unit root test to verify the stationary properties of the variables. To examine the short-run and long-run dynamics the study employed panel autoregressive distributed lag (P-ARDL) model. The empirical findings suggest that there is a presence of cross-sectional dependency among the variables. The panel ARDL model confirms that energy price, labor force, and capital stock have positive and statistically significant long-run impact on economic growth in the G7 countries. The short run dynamics of the result recommend that there is a short run causality between non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth and capital stock to economic growth. The Hausman test found that PMG is more efficient than MG and DFE.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The metaphysical nature of homologies has been variously characterized as natural kind, individualist, and pluralist-pragmatic. In this essay, I aim to build on the work of proponents of a natural kinds ontology for homologies using Richard Boyd’s influential HPC account of natural kinds. I aim to advance this position by showing the unique fit of extending the HPC account to homologies, deflecting individualist critiques, as well as the pluralist-pragmatic alternative, showing that homologies have a determinate metaphysical character as kinds. As an important extension of this position, I attempt to explain away how the mistaken metaphysics of the individualist, and derivatively the pluralist-pragmatic approach that contextually embraces it, can facilitate certain elements of biological practice.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In a series of papers, Forber and Smead (J Philos 111(3):151–166, 〈span〉2014〈/span〉, Biol Philos 30(3):405–421, 〈span〉2015〈/span〉) and Smead and Forber (Evolution 67(3):698–707, 〈span〉2013〈/span〉) make a valuable contribution to the study of cooperation in finite populations by analyzing an understudied model: the prisoner’s delight. It always pays to cooperate in the one-shot prisoner’s delight, so this model presents a best-case scenario for the evolution of cooperation. Yet, what Forber and Smead find is highly counterintuitive. In finite populations playing the prisoner’s delight, increasing the benefit of cooperation causes selection to favor defection. Here, I extend their model by considering the effects of non-linear payoffs. In particular, I show that interesting subtleties arise when payoffs are synergistic. Indeed, analysis reveals that increasing the benefit of cooperation does not always favor the spread of defection if payoffs are synergistic. I conclude by drawing some general considerations about robustness analysis in evolutionary models.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Previous research that investigated asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the bilateral trade balance of the U.S. with Canada using their aggregate bilateral trade flows did not find support for such effects. In this paper we disaggregate the trade flows of the two countries by commodity and consider experiences of 161 industry that trade between them. After estimating the linear and nonlinear ARDL models we find support for the asymmetric short-run effects in all industries, short-run adjustment asymmetry in 69 industries, significant short-run cumulative or impact asymmetry in 37 industries and significant long-run asymmetric effects in 62 industries. Small as well as large industries were in the list.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Philosophers of biology have worked extensively on how we ought best to interpret the probabilities which arise throughout evolutionary theory. In spite of this substantial work, however, much of the debate has remained persistently intractable. I offer the example of Bayesian models of divergence time estimation (the determination of when two evolutionary lineages split) as a case study in how we might bring further resources from the biological literature to bear on these debates. These models offer us an example in which a number of different sources of uncertainty are combined to produce an estimate for a complex, unobservable quantity. These models have been carefully analyzed in recent biological work, which has determined the relationship between these sources of uncertainty (their relative importance and their disappearance in the limit of increasing data), both quantitatively and qualitatively. I suggest here that this case shows us the limitations of univocal analyses of probability in evolution, as well as the simple dichotomy between “subjective” and “objective” probabilities, and I conclude by gesturing toward ways in which we might introduce more sophisticated interpretive taxonomies of probability (modeled on some recent work in the philosophy of physics) as a path toward advancing debates on probability in the life sciences.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Much philosophical progress has been made in elucidating the idea of evolutionary contingency in a recent re-burgeoning of the debate. However, additional progress has been impaired on three fronts. The first relates to its characterisation: the under-specification of various contingency claims has made it difficult to conceptually pinpoint the scope to which ‘contingency’ allegedly 〈em〉extends〈/em〉, as well as 〈em〉which〈/em〉 biological forms are in contention. That is—there appears to be no systematic means with which to 〈em〉fully specify〈/em〉 contingency claims which has led to a tendency for authors to talk past each other. Secondly, on the matter of evidence, recent research has focused on the evidential import of (genuine) convergent evolution which is taken to disconfirm the evolutionary contingency thesis. However, there has been a neglect of convergent evolution’s converse: ‘evolutionary idiosyncrasies’ or the 〈em〉singular〈/em〉 evolution of certain forms, which I argue is evidentially supportive of evolutionary contingency. Thirdly, evolutionary contingency has often been claimed to vary in degrees and that the debate, itself, is a matter of ‘relative significance’ (sensu Beatty). However, there has been no formal method of evaluating the strength of contingency and its relative significance in a particular domain. In this paper, I address all three issues by (i) proposing a systematic means of fully specifying contingency theses with the concept of the 〈em〉modal range〈/em〉. Secondly, I (ii) propose an account of 〈em〉evolutionary idiosyncrasies〈/em〉, investigate the explanations for their occurrences, and, subsequently, spell out their significance with respect to the evolutionary contingency thesis. Finally, having been equipped with the evidential counterpart to convergent evolution, I shall (iii) sketch a 〈em〉likelihood framework〈/em〉 for evaluating, precisely on the basis of a sequence of opposing data, the strength and relative significance of evolutionary contingency in a particular domain. With this in hand, the relative observations of idiosyncrasies and convergences can be informative of the strength and relative significance of contingency in any particular domain.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Has the Portuguese economy benefited from tertiarization in terms of aggregate productivity performance? Did human capital availability play a role in this expansion of the services sector? To answer these two research questions, we investigate the existence of causality among services sector expansion, human capital, and aggregate productivity for the period 1970–2006 in the Portuguese economy based on the estimation of VAR models and impulse response analysis. We distinguish between the contributions of five different services sub-sectors that can be broadly classified as either traditional personal services or modern progressive services. The evidence suggests bi-directional causality between services sub-sectors employment shares and aggregate productivity. Across services sub-sectors, community social and personal services, that include health care and education activities, seem to be the most influential sector, followed by finance, insurance, real estate and business services, making both a positive and lasting contribution to aggregate productivity. Although only indicative, this evidence points to the relatively low weight of modern progressive services sectors in Portugal, together with a relatively less important role for some traditional personal services sub-sectors that can be sources of human capital, as candidate explanations for the slowdown in aggregate productivity growth over the period under analysis. The causality analysis did not allow us to confirm the role of human capital in driving the expansion of services subsectors, although the impulse response analysis points to a positive impact on aggregate productivity and the expansion of finance, insurance, real estate and business services and community social and personal services.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This note argues that basically all strands of available empirical and quantitative evidence on the economic effects of Brexit arrive at the conclusion that the economic burden for Britain will be substantial. Furthermore, there are good reasons to expect that these costs are currently even underestimated as dynamic effects of Brexit are insufficiently captured by existing methods. Furthermore, all scenarios assume an orderly Brexit which looks increasingly unlikely. The best way forward is an exit from Brexit and to call for a second referendum on the concrete two policy alternatives which are now on the table.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Against the background of the (at least partially) successfully overcome structural change in the Ruhrgebiet, this project analyses whether and to what extent Northern Greece, especially Central Macedonia with the city of Thessaloniki, can learn from the Ruhrgebiet when conducting the required structural reforms and coping with structural change. In the Ruhrgebiet, the process of structural change seems to be almost complete. More than half of the workforce is now employed in the service sector – and that proportion continues to increase. But some problems such as a high proportion of educationally disadvantaged households with a migration background remain due to the missed structural change in the 1960s. This study thus analyses the structural characteristics of the Greek economy and workforce with particular emphasis on the northern regions in Greece and compares them to the Ruhrgebiet and NRW.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The UK parliament on 29 January endorsed by 317 to 301 votes a government-backed amendment proposing to renegotiate the Brexit deal with the European Union, specifically demanding major changes to the so-called backstop on future border management between the UK region of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. EU negotiators, as well as leaders from the remaining 27 EU member states, have repeatedly stated that they reject such a move. While still failing to approve viable alternative routes, the UK parliament also confirmed in a nonbinding vote with a majority of 318 to 310 that it is opposed to leaving the EU without a deal. The easiest route is for the UK to secure an orderly Brexit on 29 March would require major EU concessions to the backstop, such as agreeing to a time limit or providing a unilateral exit clause for the UK. But, the EU continues to rule out a renegotiation, suggesting May could struggle to win some concessions to win over support from hardline Brexiteers. Should the EC refuse to budge on the backstop agreement, parliament could demand a legally binding vote to remove a “no deal” option from the table, increasing the likelihood of the UK edging closer to a softer Brexit instead. This could entail the establishment of a permanent UK-EU customs union, which could attract sufficient number of votes from the opposition as well as an array of pro-EU MPs from the governing Conservative Party. However, May has so far refrained from offering such an option as it would significantly increase the risk of splitting her party. Without either EU concessions or a cross-party alliance supporting a softer Brexit, the risk of exiting without a deal on 29 March increases. At this point in time (4 February), IHS Markit's assessment that the risk of a “no-deal” Brexit is more elevated, and sits uncomfortably around a 25–30% probability range.〈/p〉 〈p〉Even before we examine the impact of a “no deal” outcome on the UK economy, the continued Brexit uncertainty represents a significant hit on business sentiment, with many firms bemoaning the continued lack of clarity and expressing deep shock that the no-deal option remains on the table. Business groups continue to highlight the lack of contingency planning for a disorderly Brexit. Specifically, London Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Colin Stanbridge reports, “75 per cent of London businesses that we surveyed still haven't made any provisions in preparation for Brexit. Furthermore, the survey also reveals that 86% of businesses in London employing under 10 people have made no preparations at all due to lack of resources and time.” More encouragingly, some have welcomed the fact that parliament has indicated that it is against leaving the EU without a deal, although it is not legally binding. Indeed, Huw Evans, the director-general of the Association of British Insurers, noted that it was “encouraging to see Parliament saying it won't support a no-deal outcome”. Overall, parliament's indecisive vote on the Brexit path signifies that there has been no progress towards how the UK will leave the EU, with many UK firms angry that the point of departure is getting ever close. They highlight that the continued uncertainty is damaging business sentiment and economic activity. Indeed, the latest survey data suggest that the UK economy was close to stagnation in the final month of 2018 and point to limited growth in the first half of 2019. At this stage, we continue to advocate a cautious near-term growth outlook, with the UK economy set to expand by 1.1% (the January consensus is 1.4%) in 2019 and 1.3% (consensus at 1.6%) in 2020 from an estimated 1.3% gain in 2018.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In his target article, Koonin discusses the insights into the evolution of bacterial genomes provided by the CRISPR-Cas system. This evolved defense system is based on intrinsic processes of genome engineering which, as he argues, enable Lamarckian inheritance. In this commentary I discuss some historical and conceptual issues that pertain to Koonin’s analysis of this aspect of the CRISPR-Cas system, extending and qualifying his discussion.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Koonin, in an article in this issue, claims that CRISPR–Cas systems are mechanisms for the inheritance of acquired adaptive characteristics, and that the operation of such systems comprises a “Lamarckian mode of evolution.” We argue that viewing the CRISPR–Cas mechanism as facilitating a form of “directed mutation” more accurately represents how the system behaves and the history of neoDarwinian thinking, and is to be preferred.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉David Steen and co-authors in this journal offer a philosophical argument to support an “Evolutionary Community Concept” to identify what they call “evolutionary communities.” They describe these as “unique collections of species that interact and have co-evolved in a given geographic area” and that include “co-evolved dependencies between different parts of a community.” Steen et al. refer to the coevolution of assemblages, collections, communities, dependencies, interspecific and abiotic interactions, and traits, but they do not define “co-evolution” or provide an example in which co-evolution (as distinct from interaction) has been demonstrated. There may be as many ways to explain interactions among species as these interactions themselves; they may result, for example, from ecological fitting and phenotypic plasticity. In this paper, I argue that standard Darwinian Theory explains intraspecific microevolution or descent with modification within an interbreeding and potentially continuous population. The power, mechanism, or force that causes interspecific co-evolution, especially at the community scale, requires further explanation.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Eugene V. Koonin argues that fundamental research of CRISPR-Cas mechanisms has (among other things) illuminated “fundamental principles of genome manipulation.” Koonin's discussion provides important philosophical insights for how we should understand the significance of CRISPR-Cas systems. Yet the analysis he provides is only part of a larger story. There is also a human element to the CRISPR-Cas story that concerns its development as a technology. Accounting for this part of CRISPR's history reveals that the story Koonin provides requires greater nuance. I'll show how CRISPR-Cas technologies are not “natural” genome editing systems, but (in part) artifacts of human ingenuity. Furthermore, I'll argue that the story of CRISPR-Cas is not “primarily about research into fundamental biological mechanisms”, but is instead about the intertwining of applied and fundamental research programs.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Koonin argues that CRISPR-Cas systems present the best-known case in point for Lamarckian evolution because they satisfy his proposed criteria for the specific inheritance of acquired adaptive characteristics (IAC). We see two interrelated issues with Koonin’s characterization of CRISPR-Cas systems as Lamarckian. First, at times he appears to confuse an account of the CRISPR-Cas 〈em〉system〈/em〉 with an account of the 〈em〉mechanism〈/em〉 it employs. We argue there is no evidence for the CRISPR-Cas system being “Lamarckian” in any sense. Second, it is unclear whether the mechanism is more “Lamarckian” than many other forms of genetic change already well-characterized in Darwinian terms. We present three conceptually distinct senses in which the mechanism of IAC may be considered Lamarckian and argue that only the strongest sense of 〈em〉goal〈/em〉-〈em〉directed〈/em〉 IAC would be difficult to accommodate in a Darwinian account. As the CRISPR-Cas mechanism does not qualify as “Lamarckian” in this strong sense, we argue there is no conceptual value in calling it “Lamarckian”. Finally, we suggest that CRISPR-Cas systems do hold the potential for genuinely non-Darwinian, directed evolution in a way that Koonin did not discuss, involving their potential (mis)use as a human gene-editing tool.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In this analysis, BREXIT is considered with regard to the main consequences for financial markets; and real economic implications are taken into account while policy options are also highlighted. The role of the interest elasticity of the demand for money is emphasized for both welfare analysis of BREXIT and overshooting – assuming that that elasticity will fall post-BREXIT. Key insights emerge from aspects related to Dornbusch-type exchange rate overshooting problems and insights from the Branson model: This medium-term perspective is used to derive some short-term and long-term BREXIT implications. As regards overall welfare effects, the BREXIT welfare effect related to a lower holding of real money balances – due to a lower gross domestic product post-BREXIT in the long run – is rather high, so that adding this to the HM Treasury finding of a 10% income loss from BREXIT suggests that the long run welfare loss of the UK could be high. Moreover, the quality of financial market integration in the EU countries is highlighted: For the first time, financial services trade restrictiveness indices are empirically analyzed. This leads – on the basis of a restrictiveness index regarding international financial services and additional information about prudential supervision quality – to an assessment of the quality of financial markets. Policy conclusions take into account the new protectionist challenges and use insights from the Welfens enhanced growth model with trade and foreign direct investment.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This paper studies the impact of European regional trade agreements on European export patterns. Using a simple fixed effects estimation method, it appears that only the extensive margin is positively affected by trade agreements, while the impact on total exports and on the intensive margin is insignificant. This finding breaks down, however, if one distinguishes between individual European countries. There appears to be substantial heterogeneity across European Union member states. Moreover, the impact on the extensive margin can be explained by the inclusion of various trade-related aspects in trade agreements, which deepen the effective trade integration between the European Union and its trading partners. Finally, using a composite indicator capturing the intensity of trade integration across twelve recent European trade agreements, we cannot conclude that more comprehensive trade agreements enhance exports more.〈/p〉