ALBERT

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In this paper, we aim to understand how transition towards sustainability processes might arise and develop in a post-conflict country. We analyse the case of the development of renewable energy in Lebanon to understand how green initiatives might emerge, without a prior master plan in a country that was torn by war. We focus on the structured action being developed in cooperation with the UNDP to enable Lebanon to fulfil its international commitment of achieving a 12% target of renewable energy in its energy mix by 2020. The process began in 2010 with the installation of photovoltaic systems in the capital Beirut. This initiative has led to the creation of what appears to be today a viable business ecosystem which makes the 12% a target that seems within reach. We analyse this “success” using a sociotechnical approach with a neo-institutional perspective. We show that the support of international agencies in post-conflict reconstruction modifies radically the dynamic evolution of sociotechnical regimes and links the transition context to the different phases leading to the institutionalization of a new technology. Finally, we propose a framework based on a critical interpretation of the multi-level perspective for the sustainability transition process in post-conflict countries.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This paper describes five sets of regions intended for use in summarizing extreme weather over Earth’s land areas from a climate perspective. The sets differ in terms of their target size: ∼10 Mm〈sup〉2〈/sup〉, ∼5 Mm〈sup〉2〈/sup〉, ∼2 Mm〈sup〉2〈/sup〉, ∼0.5 Mm〈sup〉2〈/sup〉, and ∼0.1 Mm〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (where 1 Mm〈sup〉2〈/sup〉= 1 million km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉). The regions are based on political/economic divisions, and hence are intended to be primarily aligned with geographical domains of decision-making and disaster response rather than other factors such as climatological homogeneity. This paper describes the method for defining these sets of regions; provides the final definitions of the regions; and performs some comparisons across the five sets and other available regional definitions with global land coverage, according to climatological and non-climatological properties.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Elevated atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration alters vegetation growth and composition, increases plant water use efficiency (〈em〉WUE〈/em〉), and changes surface water balance. These changes and their differences between wet and dry climate are studied at a mid-latitude experiment site in the Loess Plateau of China. The study site, the Jinghe River basin (JRB), covers an area of 43,216 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 and has a semiarid climate in the north and a semi-humid climate in the south. Two simulations from 1965 to 2012 are made using a site-calibrated Lund–Potsdam–Jena dynamic global vegetation model: one with the observed rise of the atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 from 319.7–391.2 ppmv, and the other with a fixed CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 at the level of 1964 (318.9 ppmv). Analyses of the model results show that the elevated atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 promotes growth of woody vegetation (trees) and causes a 6.0% increase in basin-wide net primary production (〈em〉NPP〈/em〉). The 〈em〉NPP〈/em〉 increase uses little extra water however because of higher 〈em〉WUE〈/em〉. Further examination of the surface water budget reveals opposite CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 effects between semiarid and semi-humid climates in the JRB. In the semiarid climate, plants sustain growth in higher CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 because of the higher level of intracellular CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 and therefore 〈em〉WUE〈/em〉, thus consuming more water and causing a greater decrease of surface runoff than in the fixed-lower CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 case. In the semi-humid climate, 〈em〉NPP〈/em〉 also increases but by a smaller amount than in the semiarid climate. Plant transpiration (〈em〉E〈/em〉〈sub〉〈em〉T〈/em〉〈/sub〉) and total evapotranspiration (〈em〉E〈/em〉) decrease in the elevated CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 environment, yielding the increase of runoff. This asymmetry of the effects of elevated atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 exacerbates drying in the semiarid climate and enhances wetness in the semi-humid climate. Furthermore, plant 〈em〉WUE〈/em〉 (=〈em〉NPP〈/em〉/〈em〉E〈/em〉〈sub〉〈em〉T〈/em〉〈/sub〉) is found to be nearly invariant to climate but primarily a function of the atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration, a result suggesting a strong constraint of atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 on biophysical properties of the Earth system.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉We developed three tree-ring width chronologies of Chinese white pine (〈em〉Pinus armandii〈/em〉) along an altitudinal gradient on the same slope of the northern Funiu Mountain, central China. Chronological statistics indicate that there are higher mean sensitivity (M.S.) and standard deviation (S.D.) at high-altitude site while higher signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and expressed population signal (EPS) at low-altitude site. Correlation analyses between chronologies and climate factors indicate that temperature is the main limiting factor, and discrepant response on tree growth exists at different altitudes. Mean and maximum temperatures in May have significant negative correlations with tree growth at mid and high altitudes, while all temperatures in April show significant positive correlations at high altitude and minimum temperature in August shows significant positive correlation at low-altitude site. It is evident that the limit of temperatures in April and May to tree growth strengthened with increasing altitude. Tree growth also shows significant positive correlations with precipitation in May at high altitude, with precipitation from prior December to current February and scPDSI (self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index) from prior July to current February and May at mid altitude and relative humidity in February and June and scPDSI in current June at low-altitude site. Stability of climate–growth responses by moving correlation analyses shows continuous significant negative correlations with mean and maximum temperature in May and significant positive correlation with precipitation in May at high and low altitudes since 2000 but discontinuously significant negative correlation with precipitation in July–September before 2003 and discontinuously significant positive correlation with precipitation from prior December to current February after 1995. The strong significant positive correlations with scPDSI from prior November to current June since 1990 may indicate that temperature had induced drought stress on tree radial growth at mid-altitude site.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Despite broad scientific consensus on climate change, public views may not always correspond with scientific findings. Understanding public perceptions of climate change is thus crucial to both identifying problems and delivering solutions. Investigations of climate change that integrate instrumental records and people’s perceptions in the Himalayas are scarce and fragmentary compared to other regions of the world. We analyzed nationally representative data (〈em〉n〈/em〉 = 5060) of local peoples’ perception of climate change in Nepal, and assessed annual and seasonal trends of temperature and precipitation, onsets of seasons, and trends of climate extremes, based on gridded climate datasets. We firstly used quantitative and spatial techniques to compare local perceptions and the instrumentally observed trends of climate variables. We then examined the possible association of demographic variables, place attachment, regional differences, and prior understanding of climate change with the accuracy of people’s perceptions. Instrumental evidence showed consistent warming, increasing hot days and nights, and increasing annual precipitation, wet spells, heavy precipitation and decreasing dry spells in Nepal. Our results indicate that locals accurately perceived the shifts in temperature but their perceptions of precipitation change did not converge with the instrumental records. We suggest that, in future as exposure to changes in weather, particularly extreme events, continues, people may become more likely to detect change which corresponds with observed trends. With some new methodological insights gained through integrating community perceptions with observed climate data, the results of this study provides valuable information to support policies to reduce climate-related risk and enhance climate change adaptation.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Scholars and practitioners are increasingly promoting so-called nature-based approaches for urban climate change adaptation. There is widespread consensus that they both support and require transdisciplinary approaches, notably by involving citizens in the change process and finding innovative ways to unite different actors’ efforts and capacities. However, there is little empirical evidence regarding the actual value of citizen involvement to sustainability in this field. Against this background, this paper examines whether (or not) current forms and conditions of citizen involvement help to create a platform to support nature-based solutions and ensure a transformative adaptation process. The results show that under current conditions, citizen engagement often hampers sustainable outcomes. In fact, current structures and mechanisms for mainstreaming nature and climate considerations into sectoral planning are limited and, furthermore, neglect citizen involvement. In addition, there is a blind spot with respect to personal spheres of transformation toward sustainability regarding citizens, civil servants, and decision-makers. Key constraints are power structures and the lack of cognitive/emotional and relational capacities required for improved democratic governance. If we are to tap into the potential of nature-based solutions to increase climate adaptation governance, we need targeted financial and human resources, and greater capacity to overcome current constraints and support all levels and phases of mainstreaming, notably planning, implementation, monitoring, and learning.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In the last decade, instigated by the Paris agreement and United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COP22 and COP23), the efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels are expanding. The required reductions in greenhouse gas emissions imply a massive decarbonization worldwide with much involvement of regions, cities, businesses, and individuals in addition to the commitments at the national levels. Improving end-use efficiency is emphasized in previous IPCC reports (IPCC 〈span〉2014〈/span〉). Serving as the primary ‘agents of change’ in the transformative process towards green economies, households have a key role in global emission reduction. Individual actions, especially when amplified through social dynamics, shape green energy demand and affect investments in new energy technologies that collectively can curb regional and national emissions. However, most energy-economics models—usually based on equilibrium and optimization assumptions—have a very limited representation of household heterogeneity and treat households as purely rational economic actors. This paper illustrates how computational social science models can complement traditional models by addressing this limitation. We demonstrate the usefulness of behaviorally rich agent-based computational models by simulating various behavioral and climate scenarios for residential electricity demand and compare them with the business as usual (SSP2) scenario. Our results show that residential energy demand is strongly linked to personal and social norms. Empirical evidence from surveys reveals that social norms have an essential role in shaping personal norms. When assessing the cumulative impacts of these behavioral processes, we quantify individual and combined effects of social dynamics and of carbon pricing on individual energy efficiency and on the aggregated regional energy demand and emissions. The intensity of social interactions and learning plays an equally important role for the uptake of green technologies as economic considerations, and therefore in addition to carbon-price policies (top-down approach), implementing policies on education, social and cultural practices can significantly reduce residential carbon emissions.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉There is increasing evidence that climate change is impacting not just total amounts of precipitation, but its temporal dynamics as well. While previous studies have identified the importance that the temporal distribution of daily rainfall has on crop production, climate models often do not represent these distributions consistently with observed trends. The objectives of this study are to (1) evaluate the relationship between rainfall variability and yields for economically important crops in the upper Southeastern United States and (2) assess the potential impact that incorporating observed trends in rainfall variability has on yield projections under future climate change. This study develops statistical models of historic crop yields for five crops, finding that an explanatory variable related to daily rainfall variability, the wet-day Gini coefficient (GC), has a statistically significant negative relationship with crop yields in all cases. These models are then used to estimate the impacts of climate change using an ensemble of downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projections and scenarios that include a continuation of observed GC trends. Most downscaled GCMs evaluated do not project changes in GC consistent with observed trends, and scenarios that assume a continuation of observed trends result in projected yields that are up to 5.8% lower than those directly based on GCM projections. While additional research is needed in the climate science community to better understand how rainfall variability may change in the future, this should be mirrored in the impacts community so that agricultural impact assessments incorporate these potentially important changes.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Weather and climate extremes cause significant economic damages and fatalities. Over the last few decades, the frequency of these disasters and their economic damages have significantly increased in the USA. The prediction of the future evolution of these damages and their relation to global warming and US economic growth is essential for deciding on cost-efficient mitigation pathways. Here we show using a probabilistic extreme value statistics framework that both the increase in US Gross Domestic Product per capita and global warming are significant covariates in probabilistically modeling the increase in economic damages. We also provide evidence that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation affects the number of fatalities. Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, we estimate the potential future economic risks. We find that by 2060, the extreme risks (as measured by 200-year effective return level) will have increased by 3–5.4 times. The damage costs due to extreme risks are projected to be between 0.1 and 0.7% of US Gross Domestic Product by 2060 and could reach 5–16% by 2100.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Earth Hour is a globally celebrated environmental campaign that is aimed at converting bystanders into active participants in the combat against climate change. Although it has become a global movement, to date, few studies have investigated the motivations behind people’s participation in Earth Hour. The present study fills this gap by examining Earth Hour participation through the integration of the identity perspective and the theory of planned behavior (TPB). We argue that environmental self-identity and humanity identity motivate people to participate in Earth Hour via the pathways identified in the TPB. We tested our model by conducting a survey in Hong Kong (〈em〉N〈/em〉 = 239). Results from a series of mediation analysis revealed that Earth Hour–specific attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, and moral norm were positively associated with behavioral intention, which in turn predicted actual participation. Further, we found that environmental self-identity and humanity identity were positively associated with attitude and moral norm, which in turn predicted behavioral intention. These results demonstrate the viability of integrating the identity perspective and the TPB to understand people’s performance of specific pro-environmental behavior, including participation in collective action that aims to convert unconcerned individuals into active participants in environmental endeavors (i.e., conversionary collective action), such as Earth Hour. This integrated model can tell researchers and environmental practitioners not only which behavior-specific factors determine people’s behavior but also how these behavior-specific factors arise in the first place.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The finance sector’s response to pressures around climate change has emphasized disclosure, notably through the recommendations of the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). The implicit assumption—that if risks are fully revealed, finance will respond rationally and in ways aligned with the public interest—is rooted in the “efficient market hypothesis” (EMH) applied to the finance sector and its perception of climate policy. For low carbon investment, particular hopes have been placed on the role of institutional investors, given the apparent matching of their assets and liabilities with the long timescales of climate change. We both explain theoretical frameworks (grounded in the “three domains”, namely satisficing, optimizing, and transforming) and use empirical evidence (from a survey of institutional investors), to show that the EMH is unsupported by either theory or evidence: it follows that transparency alone will be an inadequate response. To some extent, transparency can address behavioural biases (first domain characteristics), and improving pricing and market efficiency (second domain); however, the strategic (third domain) limitations of EMH are more serious. We argue that whilst transparency can help, on its own it is a very long way from an adequate response to the challenges of ‘aligning institutional climate finance’.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Small community businesses bear the brunt of climate change impacts. Studies of the vulnerability and resilience of such businesses predominantly focus on firm-level characteristics and organizational issues. This paper addresses the lack of individual-level considerations. It explores an analytical approach that draws upon the concepts of social capital and sense of place for understanding community businesses’ resilience to extreme weather. An empirical study was conducted to investigate whether and how the attributes of these concepts are related to adaptation practice. This study is based on a structured questionnaire survey of community businesses at various locations around the Pearl River Estuary that are exposed to storm surges. The findings partially support the hypothesis that action is more likely to be taken when social capital is strong. Community businesses are more likely to adopt adaptation strategies when their owners or operators perceive a higher level of social expectation, but are less likely to do so when they have better relationships with the people around them. This study indicated the potential for moral hazard driven by good social relationships and supported the understanding of small community businesses as firms and social agents in responding to climate change impacts. There is a need for recognizing the social dimensions of small businesses’ rationality in their adaptation and hazard adjustment, and strengthening their engagement with community-based adaptation through social institutions.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This paper deals with the analysis of the temperatures in a group of 29 stations located in twelve European countries by looking at the coefficients in a linear time trend regression model and allowing for long memory patterns in the error term. The results indicate that long memory is present in practically all cases, and the time trend coefficients are statistically significant in the majority of the cases implying evidence of increasing warming trends. This pattern is particularly noticeable in the case of several stations located across Italy and France, which might be related with micro climates affecting these regions.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Yak is an integral part of the livelihood of highlanders in Indian Eastern Himalaya where only subsistence agriculture is possible due to its difficult terrain and harsh climate. The tribal households of Lachen and Lachung in North Sikkim rear yaks at an altitude of 3000 to 5000 m in semi-pastoral system which is highly dependent on temperature and snowfall pattern. Any change in climatic factors is expected to affect the yaks and livelihood of the yak herders. Hence, an explorative study was conducted to understand how the pastoral yak rearing system is changing in the region with change in climate. The estimated temperature increment was 0.03–0.04 °C/annum which is corroborated by herders’ perceptions. They observed that the amount of snowfall has receded, especially in lower altitudes and the snowfall period shifted from November–December to January–March. The commencement of upward migration of yak herders advanced by 15–30 days due to increase in March temperature and the migration span extended by 45 days now. The downward migration is restricted to mid alleviation (2750–3000 m) now which was earlier about 2000 m whereas the upward migration has gone up farther about 500 m due to increasing temperature and unavailability of quality pasture. The study revealed that the pastoral yak rearing in North Sikkim is transforming to cope the impending climate change. However, to reduce the vulnerability of yak, research and extension efforts/policies should be concentrated on fodder production and pasture management suiting to the awaiting climate change.〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉In the discussion of Eq. (1), reference is made to an example calculation of the metric that should have been provided in the right-hand panel of Fig. 1.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉A set of 28 simulations from five regional climate models are used in this study to assess the Great Lakes’ water supply from 1953 to 2100 following emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 with a focus on bi-weekly changes in the means and extremes of hydrological variables. Models are first evaluated by comparing annual cycles of precipitation, runoff, evaporation and net basin supply (NBS) with observations. Trends in mean values are then studied for each variable using Theil-Sen’s statistical test. Changes in extreme conditions are analyzed using generalized extreme values distributions for a reference period (1971–2000) and two future periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2100). Ensemble trend results show evaporation increases of 136 and 204 mm (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) over the Great Lakes between 1953 and 2100. Precipitation increases by 83 and 140 mm and runoff increases by 68 and 135 mm. Trends are not equally distributed throughout the year as seasonal changes differ greatly. As a result, Great Lakes net basin supply is expected to increase in winter and spring and decrease in summer. Over the entire year, NBS increases of 14 and 70 mm are projected for scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 respectively by the year 2100. An analysis of extreme values reveals that precipitation and NBS maxima increase by 11 to 27% and 1 to 9% respectively, while NBS minima decrease by 18 to 29% between 1971–2000 and 2041–2100.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉How much finance should be provided to support climate change adaptation and by whom? How should it be allocated, and on what basis? Over the years, various actors have expressed different normative expectations on climate finance. Which of these expectations are being met and which are not; why, and with what consequences? Have new norms and rules emerged, which remain contested? This article takes stock of the first 25+ years of adaptation finance under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and seeks to understand whether adaptation finance has become more justly governed and delivered over the past quarter century. We distinguish among three “eras” of adaptation finance: (1) the early years under the UNFCCC (1992–2008); (2) the Copenhagen shift (2009–2015); and (3) the post-Paris era (2016–2018). For each era, we systematically review the justice issues raised by evolving expectations and rules over the provision, distribution, and governance of adaptation finance. We conclude by outlining future perspectives for adaptation finance and their implications for climate justice.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The field of climate services has arisen rapidly out of a desire to enable climate science to meet the information needs of society to respond to climate variability and change. In order for knowledge to be “usable” for decision-making, in the field of climate adaptation and beyond, it must meet the criteria of credibility, salience, and legitimacy (Cash et al., PNAS 100:8086–8091, 〈span〉2003〈/span〉). Deliberate “co-production” of knowledge between “producers” and “users” has the potential to increase usability for decision-making and policy in some contexts. While co-production is increasingly advanced as an instrumental approach to facilitate the production of usable climate services, such efforts have paid scant attention to the role of power relations. In this article, we bring together literature on 〈em〉normative〈/em〉 approaches to co-production—which treats co-production as an instrumental means to an end—with 〈em〉analytical〈/em〉 interpretations of co-production within the field of Science and Technology Studies to examine efforts to develop usable climate services in Tanzania. We show that without reflexive processes that are explicitly attentive to power dynamics, normative co-production within climate services development can serve to reinforce, rather than overcome, power imbalances among actors.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The worldwide rise of climate skeptical political leaders endangers sorely needed political efforts to mitigate climate change. In addition, climate skepticism expressed by the political elites may spread to the electorate, thus ultimately affecting mitigation actions at the population level. It is crucial to better understand the psychological mechanisms underlying elite influences on public opinion formation and polarization. Here we show how affective processes contribute to these top-down influences using longitudinal data in the context of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Findings revealed a general decrease in climate change beliefs immediately after the presidential election (November 2016). We moreover found an increase in positive emotions and a decrease in negative emotions toward the Republican Party after the election of President Trump. Most importantly, the positive emotional shift towards the Republican Party mediated the decrease in climate change beliefs: Individuals with pronounced increases in positive emotions toward the Republican Party most strongly reduced their belief in climate change after the presidential election. The effect was intensified among Republican partisans, pointing towards a mechanism underlying political polarization. Using data based on a major real-world political event, our findings illustrate how partisans update their beliefs by referring to the positions of relevant political authorities. We moreover demonstrate how emotions drive top-down influences of political leaders on partisans’ opinions and beliefs. Finally, our findings reveal how intensified emotions can contribute to the aggravation of the public climate change divide.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉For aiming to keep global warming well-below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C, as set out in the Paris Agreement, a full-fledged assessment of negative emission technologies (NETs) that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is crucial to inform science-based policy making. With the Paris Agreement in mind, we re-analyse available scenario evidence to understand the roles of NETs in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios and, for the first time, link this to a systematic review of findings in the underlying literature. In line with previous research, we find that keeping warming below 1.5 °C requires a rapid large-scale deployment of NETs, while for 2 °C, we can still limit NET deployment substantially by ratcheting up near-term mitigation ambition. Most recent evidence stresses the importance of future socio-economic conditions in determining the flexibility of NET deployment and suggests opportunities for hedging technology risks by adopting portfolios of NETs. Importantly, our thematic review highlights that there is a much richer set of findings on NETs than commonly reflected upon both in scientific assessments and available reviews. In particular, beyond the common findings on NETs underpinned by dozens of studies around early scale-up, the changing shape of net emission pathways or greater flexibility in the timing of climate policies, there is a suite of “niche and emerging findings”, e.g. around innovation needs and rapid technological change, termination of NETs at the end of the twenty-first century or the impacts of climate change on the effectiveness of NETs that have not been widely appreciated. Future research needs to explore the role of climate damages on NET uptake, better understand the geophysical constraints of NET deployment (e.g. water, geological storage, climate feedbacks), and provide a more systematic assessment of NET portfolios in the context of sustainable development goals.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Climate services seek the timely production and delivery of useful climate information to decision-makers, yet there continues to be a reported ‘usability gap’. To address this, many have advocated the coproduction of climate services between knowledge producers, providers and users, with a tendency to focus on tailoring information products to user needs, with less attention towards the service environment itself. In service management and service marketing fields, this is referred to as the ‘servicescape’ and is shown to influence behavioural intention, value creation and perceived service quality. In an effort to facilitate cross-disciplinary learning, this research asks whether climate services can learn from other service-based research in public administration/management, service management and service marketing. Performing a semi-deductive literature review, this perspective article examines themes of coproduction and servicescapes, and identifies relevant topics for future climate services research around the added value of service-dominant logic, the subjective experience of users’ interaction with servicescapes, and empowerment of users as co-producers of value. This is an important first step in promoting further cross-disciplinary learning to advance both scholarship and operational delivery of climate services.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The global incidence of very intense cyclones has increased in recent decades with climate projections signaling that this trend will intensify. To what degree can vulnerability to extreme weather events be mitigated by access to a rural livelihoods program, particularly with regard to the impacts on women? This paper addresses this question through a natural experiment arising from two independent but overlapping sources of variation: exposure to a devastating cyclone that occurred in the Bay of Bengal region of India and the staggered rollout of a rural livelihoods intervention. Comparisons from household surveys across communities more or less exposed to the storm before and after the introduction of the program reveal that the storm led to significant reductions in overall household expenditure, and that these reductions were indeed the largest for women, adding to the emerging evidence for the frequently-posed hypothesis that women bear the brunt of the effects of disasters on overall household consumption. Participation in the livelihoods program mitigated some of the reductions in household nonfood expenditure and women’s consumption, but not on food expenditure. These results from a densely populated region whose topography makes it particularly vulnerable to storms can inform future policy approaches and aid in modeling the impact of these policies on the effects of climate change.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Climate change will have significant impacts on vegetation and biodiversity. Solar geoengineering has potential to reduce the climate effects of greenhouse gas emissions through albedo modification, yet more research is needed to better understand how these techniques might impact terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we utilize the fully coupled version of the Community Earth System Model to run transient solar geoengineering simulations designed to stabilize radiative forcing starting mid-century, relative to the Representative Concentration Pathway 6 (RCP6) scenario. Using results from 100-year simulations, we analyze model output through the lens of ecosystem-relevant metrics. We find that solar geoengineering improves the conservation outlook under climate change, but there are still potential impacts on terrestrial vegetation. We show that rates of warming and the climate velocity of temperature are minimized globally under solar geoengineering by the end of the century, while trends persist over land in the Northern Hemisphere. Moisture is an additional constraint on vegetation, and in the tropics the climate velocity of precipitation dominates over that of temperature. Shifts in the amplitude of temperature and precipitation seasonal cycles have implications for vegetation phenology. Different metrics for vegetation productivity also show decreases under solar geoengineering relative to RCP6, but could be related to the model parameterization of nutrient cycling. The coupling of water and carbon cycles is found to be an important mechanism for understanding changes in ecosystems under solar geoengineering.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉There has been a global trend away from delivering ‘climate information’ towards producing ‘climate services’ for decision-makers. The rationale for this shift is said to be the demand for timely and actionable climate knowledge, whilst the means of its delivery involves a shift from public good to more privatised forms of climate science. This paper identifies important implications of this shift to climate services by examining the role of consultants, drawing on an in-depth study of adaptation consultants in Australia. The role of consultants is instructive, not just because these private sector experts are engaged in climate services, but also because publicly funded climate science agencies are increasingly encouraged to behave as consulting firms do. Four imperatives of knowledge businesses—to be client-focussed, solutions-oriented, resource-efficient and self-replicating—are described. The paper argues that an emphasis on climate services shifts the incentives for climate science away from the public interest towards the ongoing pursuit of profit. There is a subsequent diversion of effort away from publicly accessible and transparent climate information to private knowledge for discrete clients. Climate services also emphasise knowledge for climate solutions as opposed to the politically charged identification of climate risks. The paper concludes with a warning that the trend towards climate services undermines the knowledge required for societies to adequately respond to the scale, speed and severity of climate change. At the heart of this issue is a climate services paradox: how to achieve customisation without exclusion.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In coming decades, sea level rise associated with climate change will make some communities uninhabitable. Managed retreat, or planned relocation, is a proactive response prior to catastrophic necessity. Managed retreat has disruptive health, sociocultural, and economic impacts on communities that relocate. Health impacts include mental health, social capital, food security, water supply, sanitation, infectious diseases, injury, and health care access. We searched peer-reviewed and gray literature for reports on small island or coastal communities at various stages of relocation primarily due to sea level rise. We reviewed these reports to identify public health impacts and barriers to relocation. We identified eight relevant small communities in the USA (Alaska, Louisiana, and Washington), Panama, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu. Affected populations range from 60 to 2700 persons and are predominantly indigenous people who rely on subsistence fishing and agriculture. Few reports directly addressed public health issues. While some relocations were successful, barriers to relocation in other communities include place attachment, potential loss of livelihoods, and lack of funding, suitable land, community consensus, and governance procedures. Further research is needed on the health impacts of managed retreat and how to facilitate population resilience. Studies could include surveillance of health indicators before and after communities relocate due to sea level rise, drought, or other environmental hazards. Lessons learned may inform relocation of both small and large communities affected by climate change.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉How do patterns of interactions among policy actors shape their ability to contribute to climate change adaptation decision-making processes in fragmented regional governance settings? We address this question through statistical models of adaptation policy actors’ assessments of access to scientific/technical information as well as their perceptions of cooperation and procedural fairness across numerous adaptation decision-making processes operating in the Lake Victoria region, East Africa. We measured actors’ collaborative interactions as well as their participation in task forces, steering committees, and other policy forums that have emerged in response to the challenges of building adaptive capacity to the effects of climate change in the region. Because information access, cooperation, and procedural fairness are shaped by social processes, we tested how the performance of policy forums varied according to different measures of social capital. Specifically, we distinguished between bridging social capital (the value of relationships that span or broker between distinct subgroups) and bonding social capital (which results from frequent interaction or from clustered relationships within subgroups). We found that measures of bridging social capital had a positive effect on actors’ assessments of their access to information in policy forums, but a negative effect on their perceptions of cooperation and procedural fairness in forums. In contrast, measures of bonding social capital had a positive effect on cooperation and procedural fairness, but no effect on information access. Taken together, our results suggest that different forms of social capital have separate—and potentially opposing—effects on distinct measures of the performance of adaptation policy forums. The relative importance of each performance measure, which may vary from one policy forum to another, should guide efforts to encourage different forms of social capital across the numerous decision-making processes that comprise regional climate change adaptation governance systems.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The changes of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in response to increased CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 atmospheric forcing are analyzed using the Super-Parameterized Community Climate System Model version 4 (SP-CCSM4). In response to the global warming caused by the increased atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration, the precipitation and circulation of the EASM intensify. These changes are explained by the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). The displacement of the WNPSH is caused by two mechanisms: (i) the increase of sea surface temperature and (ii) the reduction of latent heat flux over the South China Sea and adjacent western Pacific Ocean. The changes in the surface fluxes over the tropics induce a Gill-type anticyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere to the north of the heating anomaly and a Rossby wave train from the tropics into the mid-latitude Pacific Ocean. The westerly anomalies on the northern side of the anticyclone strengthen the southwesterly flow on the western edge of the WNPSH. This flow further affects the wind anomalies and moisture transport over East Asia. The Rossby wave train affects the large-scale circulation associated with the WNPSH.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Over the past decade, the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) has emerged as a major influence on the practice of and discourse about climate services, which aim to reduce the vulnerability of society to climate-related hazards through better provision of climate information and engagement of users of climate services. Yet, there is little research into the relations, practices, and discourses produced and institutionalized through the GFCS. The treatment of vulnerability in climate services, and by the GFCS in particular, remains understudied. To address this gap, we conduct a document analysis of key GFCS reports to interrogate framings of vulnerability and examine their implications for the development and practice of climate services for adaptation. Although we see attention to vulnerability in official GFCS discourse, we find that, with a few exceptions, identifying climate vulnerabilities is largely a cursory exercise that does not meaningfully engage in the complex social processes that contribute to differential vulnerabilities. To meet its own objectives, and the larger vision of climate services, we propose that the GFCS draw upon a rich literature on vulnerability and promote the global development of climate services that considers the coupled physical and social dimensions of vulnerability and prioritizes climate services for the most vulnerable.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Trend analysis of spring ice-out on eight lakes within the state of Maine of the northeastern USA reveals a change to earlier occurrence by 1 to 2 weeks over the period 1956–2015. Much of the trend occurred from the late 1970s through the 1980s, but a secondary trend toward earlier ice-out appears to have begun in the late 1990s. Synoptic climate data support local and hemispheric climate evidence of increasingly earlier ice-out, particularly during the earlier period of pronounced change. Local spring and winter maximum daily air temperatures increased while winter precipitation decreased; synoptic weather types of moderate temperature character increased in frequency, while polar types became less frequent; synoptic weather types became warmer in spring and winter, and in spring, warmer weather types became wetter, while cooler weather types became drier; and two key climate teleconnections, the Pacific-North American pattern and the El Niño/La Niña pattern, changed significantly toward a phase historically associated with earlier ice-out. While the results underscore the value in monitoring and study of lake ice as a climate proxy, they also demonstrate the value of synoptic climate data for filling the spatial gap between local and large-scale climate data in studies of lake ice phenology.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Adaptation planning includes contextualizing global and regional climate data within specific decision-making processes. As such, planners are increasingly interested in 〈em〉climate services〈/em〉. Climate services involve the expert production of forecasts, scenarios, economic analyses, and other data products to help users meaningfully address local changes and variabilities. For instance, in the US state of Louisiana, modelers tailor 50-year storm, precipitation, and sea level rise predictions to help planners select adaptive ecological restoration projects. Modelers do so by downscaling the data, combining it with other social and biophysical information, and framing results in terms of stakeholder interests. In this paper, I question what it means to develop adaptation information that is geared towards specific users and stakeholders. Given the growing recognition that adaptation planning can prove maladaptive, I ask, when do climate services actually exacerbate existing vulnerabilities? To answer, I draw on three cases from Louisiana’s coastal Master Plan and highlight political economic factors informing climate services: influential stakeholders, funding dynamics, the framing of planning decisions, and differential harms and benefits. I argue that when climate data is made relevant to existing interests, budgets, and plans, it can reproduce vulnerabilities and foreclose transformative adaptation. However, marginalized stakeholders can also pressure experts to contextualize data in ways that mitigate vulnerabilities. I conclude that climate services research and practice should expand user-centered approaches by asking climate services for whom and by assessing the winners and losers from climate variability, change, and adaptation actions themselves.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The promotion of agroforestry as a mitigation practice requires an understanding of the economic benefits and its acceptability to farmers. This work examines the agroecological and socio-economic factors that condition profitability and acceptance of agroforestry by smallholder farmers in Western Kenya. We differentiate the use of trees according to the permanence of carbon sequestration, introducing a distinction between practices with “high mitigation benefits” (timber) and practices with “low mitigation benefits” (fuelwood). This study goes beyond the analysis of incentives to plant trees to identify incentives to plant trees that lead to high mitigation outcomes. We show that environmental factors shaping the production system largely drive the choice for planting trees with high mitigation benefits. Most trees in the area are used for fuelwood, and the charcoal economy outweighs economic factors influencing planting of trees with high mitigation benefits. Larger households tend to produce more fuelwood, while high mitigation uses are positively related to the education level of the household head, and to the belief that trees play a positive role for the environment. Where trees contribute significantly to incomes, the norm is that they are owned by men. We conclude that although agroforestry is not perceived to be more profitable than traditional agricultural practices, it plays an important economic and environmental role by supporting subsistence through provision of fuelwood and could relieve pressure upon common forest resources. In areas with high tree cover, it also represents a way of storing capital to deal with risks and cope with uncertainty.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Batad Rice Terraces of Ifugao, Philippines, is declared as a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System due to its traditional system characterized with a synergy of goals of biodiversity conservation, sustainable productivity, and strengthening of traditions and culture. It is also inscribed as a World Heritage Site by the UNESCO. However, in spite of the fact that it is considered a living sustainable agricultural system, it is hypothesized that the rice terraces are not immune to the impacts brought about by climate change. This study aimed to determine the level of vulnerability of Batad Rice Terraces to climate change impacts. To do this, the study examined the vulnerability as a function of exposure (E), sensitivity (S), and adaptive capacity (AC). The study used 28 indicators: 5 for exposure, 12 for sensitivity, and 11 for adaptive capacity. A total of 114 respondents were interviewed and focus group discussions were conducted in July–August 2017. Results of the study showed that the vulnerability rating for the study was 0.51 (〈em〉E〈/em〉 = 0.40; 〈em〉S〈/em〉 = 0.65; and 〈em〉AC〈/em〉 = 0.51) which indicated that Batad Rice Terraces is moderately vulnerable to climate change impacts. Of the 28 indicators, the key vulnerability indices are from sensitivity and adaptive capacity components. Under sensitivity, it includes acidic soil pH, soil potassium deficiency, the perceived increase in the presence of pests, the high dependence on irrigation structure, agricultural unsuitability, and food import dependency, while adaptive capacity indicators include the declining practice of key traditions and the low number of farmers per household.〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉The article was published without the Reference section.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Forests are important moderators of global atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions, making them a key focus of terrestrial C-cycling research. The 5th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change explicitly calls upon nations to enhance C-stock accounting and mitigate losses of global forest C sinks, which inherently will require more accurate and higher spatial resolution carbon accounting. Monitoring and predicting how disturbances, such as invasive species, influence forest C stocks and the transfer of C from live to dead pools remains a high priority both in the scientific and policy communities. We documented the effects of invasive North American beavers (〈em〉Castor canadensis〈/em〉) on C-sequestration of riparian 〈em〉Nothofagus〈/em〉 forests in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. Our paired plot sampling design quantified significant losses from beaver invasion in total aboveground, live standing, dead standing, and dead and downed C stocks (〈em〉P〈/em〉 〈 0.001, paired 〈em〉t〈/em〉 tests). We extrapolated stand-level C losses to the entire study area using a Maxent habitat suitability model and estimated that 1.177 (± 0.103) Tg C would be lost if all of the predicted 18,384 ha of invasible habitat (14% of the total forested area) were colonized by beavers. These results document the impacts of invasive mammals on large terrestrial C sinks and highlight the need for understanding the magnitude of such effects across both landscape- and regional-scales.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Vulnerability and resilience are important ideas that are conceptualized in many different ways by researchers studying disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Four main conceptualizations of vulnerability in the literature include vulnerability as a threshold, as exposure to hazards, as a pre-existing condition, and as an outcome. Three main conceptualizations of resilience are resilience as resistance, as recovery, and as creative transformation. This study investigates how local practitioners in Metro Vancouver municipalities perceive and apply these concepts to reduce risk and adapt to flood hazards. Results from focus groups and surveys of practitioners find that the conceptualizations of vulnerability and resilience perceived as most valuable are often not applied in local risk reduction and adaptation efforts. Participants’ interpretations of how vulnerability and resilience concepts are applied to four main adaptation strategies—protect, accommodate, avoid, and retreat—reveal nuanced and complex challenges at the intersection of where theory meets practice. As currently operationalized, vulnerability and resilience appear unlikely to lead to anything more than incremental adaptation.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Bias correction is usually applied to climate model outputs before they are used as inputs to environmental models for impact studies. Every climate model is post-processed independently of others to account for biases originating from model structure and internal variability. To better understand the role of internal variability, multi-member ensembles (multiple runs of a single climate model, with identical forcing but different initial conditions) have now become common in the modeling community. Bias correcting such ensembles requires specific considerations. Correcting all members of such an ensemble independently would force all of them to the target distribution, thus removing the signature of natural variability over the calibration period. How this undesirable effect would propagate onto subsequent time periods is unknown. This study proposes three bias correction variants of a multi-member ensemble and compares their performances against an independent correction of each individual member of the ensemble. The comparison is based on precipitation and temperature, as well as on resulting streamflows simulated by a hydrological model. Two multi-member ensembles (5-member CanESM2 and 10-member CSIRO-MK3.6) were used for a subtropical monsoon watershed in China. The results show that all bias correction methods reduce precipitation and temperature biases for all ensemble members. As expected, independent correction reduces the spread of each ensemble over the calibration period. This is, however, followed by an overestimation of the spread over the subsequent validation period. Pooling all members to calculate common bias correction factors produces the best results over the calibration period; however, the difference among three bias correction variants becomes less clear over the validation period due to internal variability, and even less so when considering streamflows, as the impact model adds its own uncertainty.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Addressing questions of loss and damage from climate change in courts is limited by many scientific, legal and political challenges. However, modifying existing extreme event attribution frameworks to resolve the evolution of the impacts of climate change over time will improve our understanding of the largest scientific uncertainties.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The need for climate change adaptation has been widely recognised and examples of successful adaptation are increasingly reported in the literature, but little attention has so far been paid to the potential negative impacts of implemented adaptation measures. As the agricultural sector is implementing measures to adapt to or cope with climatic variability and change, the potential negative consequences of these measures need to be explored in order to avoid increased vulnerability or (unintended) environmental impacts. This paper employs serious gaming and focus group methodology to study how agricultural stakeholders in Sweden and Finland frame and negotiate the unintended negative impacts of adaptation measures. The results of our interactional frame analysis suggest that the participants negotiated the potential maladaptive outcomes depending on: (1) whether they agreed that this was indeed a potential consequence of an adaptation measure, (2) whether they considered this to be a negative outcome, and if so whether it was (3) a negative outcome which they could adapt to, (4) a negative outcome that would make it preferable not to adapt at all (5) negotiable in terms of a trade-off with alternative outcomes. While it may be obvious that adaptation options that increase vulnerability should be avoided, this study illustrates the complex, value based, individual, yet dialogical processes and contextual basis for identifying and assessing maladaptation.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratcheting-up’ process, which aims to ensure that the NDCs comply with the overall goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, will most likely include some evaluation of ‘fairness’ of these reduction targets. In the literature, fairness has been discussed around equity principles, for which many different effort-sharing approaches have been proposed. In this research, we analysed how country-level emission targets and carbon budgets can be derived based on such criteria. We apply novel methods directly based on the global carbon budget, and, for comparison, more commonly used methods using GHG mitigation pathways. For both, we studied the following approaches: equal cumulative per capita emissions, contraction and convergence, grandfathering, greenhouse development rights and ability to pay. As the results critically depend on parameter settings, we used the wide authorship from a range of countries included in this paper to determine default settings and sensitivity analyses. Results show that effort-sharing approaches that (i) calculate required reduction targets in carbon budgets (relative to baseline budgets) and/or (ii) take into account historical emissions when determining carbon budgets can lead to (large) negative remaining carbon budgets for developed countries. This is the case for the equal cumulative per capita approach and especially the greenhouse development rights approach. Furthermore, for developed countries, all effort-sharing approaches except grandfathering lead to more stringent budgets than cost-optimal budgets, indicating that cost-optimal approaches do not lead to outcomes that can be regarded as fair according to most effort-sharing approaches.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Climate engineering (CE) deployment would alter prevailing relationships between Earth system variables, making indicators and metrics used so far in the climate change assessment context less appropriate to assess CE measures. Achieving a comprehensive CE assessment requires a systematic and transparent reevaluation of the indicator selection process from Earth system variables. Here, we provide a first step towards such a systematic assessment of changes in correlations between Earth system variables following simulated deployment of different CE methods. We therefore analyze changes in the correlation structure of a broad set of Earth system variables for two conventional climate change scenarios without CE and with three idealized CE model experiments: (i) solar radiation management, (ii) large-scale afforestation, and (iii) ocean alkalinity enhancement. First, we investigate how the three CE scenarios alter prevailing correlations between Earth system variables when compared to an intermediate-high and a business-as-usual future climate change scenario. Second, we contrast the indicators identified for the non-CE climate change scenarios and the indicators identified when all five scenarios are considered. Finally, we use the identified indicator sets for an evaluation of the five climate change scenarios. We find that the additional indicators provide valuable information for the assessment of the CE measures, and their application hence allows for a more comprehensive and a comparative assessment of the mitigation and CE deployment scenarios.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Mitigating climate change will require the participation of citizens and consumers. A recent study in 〈em〉Climatic Change〈/em〉 by Obradovich and Guenther reported that framing responsibility for climate change in terms of collective—as opposed to personal—behaviors generated greater donations to environmental groups as well as higher self-reported levels of willingness to adopt environmentally-friendly behaviors. As East Asia is the leading emitter of greenhouse gases globally, these findings are or clear relevance to the region. Nonetheless, recent findings in cultural psychology suggest that this framing intervention may not have the same results in an East Asian cultural context. We therefore sought to determine whether these findings could be replicated in East Asia. For this study, 2085 university students in Taiwan were randomly assigned to receive either a collective responsibility priming task, a personal responsibility priming task, or a daily routine priming task (control). They were then given the opportunity to donate to a climate-related cause and asked to report on their likelihood of changing their personal behaviors to reduce carbon emissions. Participants in the collective and personal conditions donated significantly more than those in the control condition and those in the personal responsibility condition reported significantly lower probabilities of changing their behaviors than those in both the control and collective responsibility conditions. Our study provides a partial replication with a different demographic group and in a different cultural setting, strengthening the argument for collective responsibility framing and setting the stage for research into practical implementations.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉We used qualitative in-depth interviews to evaluate the effects of a mass media climate change program on audiences’ efficacy beliefs, outcome expectations, emotional responses, and motivations and intentions to address climate change. We conducted in-depth interviews with 73 participants from five US cities and three political parties who had watched episodes of the documentary television series, Season Two of 〈em〉Years of Living Dangerously〈/em〉. Eligible participants completed an in-depth interview within 24 h of viewing a select episode. Data were transcribed and then coded and analyzed using QSR NVivo 10. Weak efficacy beliefs limited intentions to enact concrete behavioral change. Outcome expectations, national-level actions, imagery, and emotional responses to stories played an important role in these processes. Explicit information about expected outcomes of various actions, and specifically successes, should be provided in order to boost efficacy and incentivize behavior.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Public communication of science has increasingly been recognised as a responsibility of scientists (Leshner, Science p. 977, 〈span〉2003〈/span〉). Climate scientists are often reminded of their responsibility to participate in the public climate debate and to engage the public in meaningful conversations that contribute to policy-making (Fischhoff 〈span〉2013〈/span〉). However, our understanding about climate scientists’ interactions with the public and the factors that drive or inhibit them is at best limited. In a new study, we show that it is the most published and not necessarily the most senior, which often talk in public, and it is primarily intrinsic motivation (as opposed to extrinsic reward), which drive them to engage in public communication. Political orientations, academic productivity and awareness of controversy, the topic raises in the public domain, were also important determinants of a climate’s scientist public activity. Future research should explore what is required to protect the intrinsic motivation of scientists.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉To support regional management planning decisions, and to protect human health and safety, we developed a new statistical model that simulates the onset of seasonal ice cover along the shoreline of a US National Park (the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore, or APIS). Our model encodes relationships between different modes of climate variability and regional ice cover from 1972 to 2015, and successfully simulates both the timing of ice onset and the probability that ice cover might form at all in a particular winter season. We simulate both of these endpoints using a novel combination of statistical hazard (or survival) and beta regression models. Our analysis of coastal ice cover along the APIS reinforces findings from previous research suggesting that the late 1990s signified a regime shift in climate conditions across North America. Before this period, coastal ice cover conditions at the APIS were often suitable for pedestrian access, while after this period coastal ice cover at the APIS has been highly variable. Our new model accommodates this regime shift, and provides a stepping stone towards a broad range of applications of similar models for supporting regional management decisions in light of evolving climate conditions.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Investment decisions about capital-intensive, long-lived infrastructure are challenging due to uncertainty about their future performance, particularly if the performance is sensitive to climate change. Such investments, like those made for water infrastructure, are rarely evaluated over their total operational lifetime, during which socio-economic and environmental changes can cause potential lock-ins and reduced options for future choices that lead to high costs to transfer to other options. We propose an economic evaluation framework to explore adaptation pathways, or sequences of strategic investments options, that can be implemented if needed due to changing conditions. A novel feature is the inclusion of “transfer costs” associated with a switch to alternative pathways to allow adaptive decision-making and to minimize the cost of adjustment over time. Implementing a pathway-driven approach represents a break with most institutional decision-making processes and can significantly improve decision-making under uncertainty compared to the conventional single-investment perspective. We present a case study on flood risk management in the Netherlands to show the long-term socio-economic consequences of short-term decisions by going beyond the project cycle horizon.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Several studies have shown that the greenhouse gas reduction resulting from the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) will not be enough to meet the overall targets of the Paris Climate Agreement. It has been suggested that more ambition mitigations of short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) emissions could potentially be a way to reduce the risk of overshooting the 1.5 or 2 °C target in a cost-effective way. In this study, we employ eight state-of-the-art integrated assessment models (IAMs) to examine the global temperature effects of ambitious reductions of methane, black and organic carbon, and hydrofluorocarbon emissions. The SLCFs measures considered are found to add significantly to the effect of the NDCs on short-term global mean temperature (GMT) (in the year 2040: − 0.03 to − 0.15 °C) and on reducing the short-term 〈em〉rate-of-change〈/em〉 (by − 2 to 15%), but only a small effect on reducing the 〈em〉maximum〈/em〉 temperature change before 2100. This, because later in the century under assumed ambitious climate policy, SLCF mitigation is maximized, either directly or indirectly due to changes in the energy system. All three SLCF groups can contribute to achieving GMT changes.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The UK is already experiencing the impacts of climate change and these are expected to increase in scale and severity in the coming decades. Preparing for impacts by undertaking adaptive actions can potentially reduce the level of harm. In the UK, the government’s adaptation program aims to develop a “climate-ready society.” However, achieving broad public engagement in adaptation presents a significant communications challenge. Here, we aimed to understand how UK residents use and interpret the terms “climate change impacts” and “climate change adaptation.” We conducted a secondary analysis of 22 interviews with UK residents, who were recruited for their diverse climate change views. The interviewees expressed a lack of clarity around expected climate change impacts, which did not prevent them from saying that they were already experiencing the effects of a changing climate. Further, threats to cultural norms and values were perceived as serious and emotionally charged. Adaptation was often conflated with mitigation, and responsibility for adaptation was contested. We discuss the implications of our findings for developing more useful public communication about climate change adaptation.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Women’s capacities are often constrained due to their roles in their household and society, institutional barriers and social norms. These constraints result in low adaptive capacity of women, which make them more vulnerable to hazards. As more men seek employment opportunities away from home, women are required to acquire new capacities to manage new challenges, including risks from climate change. An action research was conducted to assess impacts of capacity building interventions for women left behind in enhancing adaptive capacity of migrant-sending households in rural areas vulnerable to floods in Nepal. This study finds that capacity-building interventions, which aimed to strengthen autonomous adaptation measures (e.g. precautionary savings and flood preparedness), also positively influenced women to approach formal institutions. Besides, the intervention households were more likely to invest a part of the precautionary savings in flood preparedness measures than control households.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Responses to climate change are strongly linked to political identity and therefore any efforts to promote climate change policy need to take political identity into account. In the current research, we developed communication strategies, informed by the social identity approach, that promoted climate change policies to Republicans and Democrats. In experiment 1 (〈em〉N〈/em〉 = 879), we presented messages to Republican and Democrat participants about a carbon tax policy that differed in terms of whether the policy was endorsed by members of the Republican or Democrat party, and whether the policy was promoted on the basis of Republican or Democrat values. Experiment 2 (〈em〉N〈/em〉 = 1008) adopted the same design but the focus was on a nuclear energy policy. Across both studies, participants had more positive responses—more favorable attitudes, greater support, and stronger intentions to engage in policy-supportive behavior—when the climate change policy was endorsed by members of their ingroup than the outgroup. In experiment 1, Democrat participants (but not Republican participants) also had more positive attitudes to the carbon tax policy when it was framed in a way that aligned with the values of their ingroup. In experiment 2, Democrat participants again had more positive responses to the nuclear energy policy when it was promoted on the basis of ingroup values, whereas values did not influence Republican participants. These findings demonstrate the importance of considering social identity motivations when communicating about climate change policies.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Climate change is causing wide-ranging effects on ecosystem services critical to coastal communities and livelihoods, creating an urgent need to adapt. Most studies of climate change adaptation consist of narrative descriptions of individual cases or global synthesis, making it difficult to formulate and test locally rooted but generalizable hypotheses about adaptation processes. In contrast, researchers in this study analyzed key points in climate change adaptation derived from coordinated fieldwork in seven coastal communities around the world, including Arctic, temperate, and tropical areas on four continents. Study communities faced multiple challenges from sea level rise and warmer ocean temperatures, including coastal erosion, increasing salinity, and ecological changes. We analyzed how the communities adapted to climate effects and other co-occurring forces for change, focusing on most important changes to local livelihoods and societies, and barriers to and enablers of adaptation. Although many factors contributed to adaptation, communities with strong self-organized local institutions appeared better able to adapt without substantial loss of well-being than communities where these institutions were weak or absent. Key features of these institutions included setting and enforcing rules locally and communication across scales. Self-governing local institutions have been associated with sustainable management of natural resources. In our study communities, analogous institutions played a similar role to moderate adverse effects from climate-driven environmental change. The findings suggest that policies to strengthen, recognize, and accommodate local institutions could improve adaptation outcomes.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Tropical cyclones generated in the North Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific are a constant hazard for Mexico. Along with a possible increased hazard of tropical cyclones due to global warming, there is an inescapable increase in vulnerability and disaster risk towards tropical cyclones due to population growth and coastal infrastructure developments. In Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula has the highest landfall rates of major category hurricanes in addition to the highest rate of population growth in major tourist cities. Therefore, the assessment of landfalling tropical cyclones is of paramount importance for emergency management and planning. This paper provides an assessment of the future climate for landfalling tropical cyclones in the Yucatan Peninsula, based on synthetic tropical cyclones driven by atmospheric models (reanalysis and six different general circulation models (GCMs)) and under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario. The results using the ensemble mean from the GCMs show that the Yucatan Peninsula will be more susceptible to more frequent intense hurricanes and more regular events undergoing rapid intensification. We conclude that even under the uncertainty imposed by the results, it is more likely than not that the future climate will bring more extreme events to this area. Therefore, it becomes imperative to implement strategic planning based on the characterization of tropical cyclone hazards framed within the assessment of global warming effects.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Green businesses based on economic, social and technological innovations are engines of green growth and climate change adaptation across the world. However, without proper interactive mechanisms with the city, green businesses are particularly vulnerable in today’s fast-changing socio-economic and political urban contexts. Existing research on climate change adaptation and low-carbon transitions have not explained the crucial components and mechanisms involved in realising sustainable transformations through green businesses in cities. Synthesizing the latest green innovation and urban transformation literature, the paper analyses four distinctive urban green business cases: free-floating bike sharing in Shanghai (Mobike), a renewable energy cooperative in Girona (Som Energia), urban agriculture in Venice and green building start-ups in Istanbul. Based on a comparative analysis, we theorize a 3-Co model to explain the city-green-business transformation process consisting of: first, co-creation of sustainable values between green business and the respective society; second, co-evolution between the business ecosystem and the city’s visions and policies; and third, co-governance of sustainable trade-offs during the business development and implementation process.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉With recent growth in funding and research on “resilience building”, interest in climate services has risen dramatically. Included in this trend is an increased emphasis on the use of climate and weather information for a range of purposes across multiple scales. Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and other non-state actors across Africa have responded accordingly, and are increasingly acting as brokers, and sometimes producers, of climate services as part of their activities. Drawing on research from Burkina Faso and Ethiopia as part of the Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and Disasters (BRACED) programme, this paper critically examines the evolving climate services landscape and raises questions about what the future holds for climate services in sub-Saharan Africa. We ask two questions: How have national climate services in these countries evolved since the early 2000s when they first came to prominence? And how have NGO contributions to these services evolved over time? Our findings highlight a considerable evolution in the aims and capacities of climate service systems over this period. NGOs have contributed to this progress on multiple fronts, but we note that important opportunities for innovation remain. We also raise concerns about how the current financing and governance models may influence priority setting and the sustainability of “projectised” services. Accordingly, we call for a better understanding how power and politics shape the development and deployment of climate services. This paper provides insight on the evolving landscape of climate services, actors involved in its provision and implications for the future.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relationship is a thermodynamic relationship between saturation vapor pressure and temperature. Based on the C–C relationship, the scaling of extreme precipitation with respect to surface air temperature (i.e., extreme precipitation scaling) has been widely believed to quantify the sensitivity of these extremes to global surface warming under climate change. However, the extreme precipitation scaling rate in the observations produces counter-intuitive results, particularly in the tropics (i.e., strong negative scaling in the tropical land) possibly associated with limitations in moisture availability under the high-temperature bands. The trends in extreme precipitation based on station data are mixed with decreases in most of the tropics and subtropics and increases in most of the USA, western Europe, Australia, and a large portion of Asia. To try to reconcile these results, we examine the extreme precipitation scaling using dew point temperature and extreme precipitation and compare these results with those obtained from surface air temperature and extreme precipitation using station-based data, reanalysis data, and climate model simulations. We find that this mix of increases and decreases in the trends of extreme precipitation across the planet is more similar to the changes in surface dew point temperature rather than the actual temperature across the station-based data, reanalysis data, and the historical experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5). These findings suggest that dew point temperature is a better and more realistic metric for the responses of extreme precipitation to temperature increases. Therefore, the risk of having extreme precipitation is higher than what was obtained using surface air temperature, particularly in the tropics and subtropics (e.g., South Asia), areas of the world characterized by extremely high population density and severe poverty.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This study examines the climatic drivers of ice-off dates for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere. Most lakes and rivers have trended toward earlier ice-off dates over the last century, as would be expected from long-term climate change. However, we also identify modes of climate variability that significantly impact the short-term behavior of ice-off time series. In particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), and to a lesser degree the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explain a substantial fraction of the interannual variance in melt dates, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) generally do not. Furthermore, the spatial pattern of the early or late ice-off dates associated with the NAO, PNA, and ENSO matches a priori expectations due to the known surface temperature patterns associated with these oscillations. In all regions, the strongest correlation to ice-off is with one of the high-frequency modes—the NAO or PNA, suggesting that short-term weather variations play a stronger role than lower-frequency climate variability (ENSO, PDO, AMO) in driving ice-off.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The severity and frequency of climate change hazards are increasing around the world. Because the impacts are most acutely felt in local communities, it is critical to improve understanding of the response options that are available for and being chosen by communities. We conducted a mixed methods analysis of case studies reporting community-based responses to climate change hazards. Based on content analysis of published case studies, we generated an emergent evidence-based typology of such responses according to their nature and goals. Using this typology, we quantitatively analysed more than 1500 response examples and determined the patterns with which community-level climate change adaptation and disaster mitigation strategies vary across world regions and across economic and governance conditions. Specifically, diversity of responses is lower in developing countries, and implementation of local-level policy and planning responses is less frequent in countries characterised by low governance quality. Our results confirm that, although there is much that local communities can do to respond to the challenges of climate change, there is also a need for increased support of local activities. By synthesising data from many local studies, our research provides a first global evidence base for local-level climate change adaptation policy.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Anomaly-diffusing energy balance models (AD-EBMs) are routinely employed to analyze and emulate the warming response of both observed and simulated Earth systems. We demonstrate a deficiency in common multi-layer as well as continuous-diffusion AD-EBM variants: They are unable to, simultaneously, properly represent surface warming and the vertical distribution of heat uptake. We show that this inability is due to the diffusion approximation. On the other hand, it is well understood that transport of water from the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior is achieved, in large part, by the process of ventilation—a process associated with outcropping isopycnals. We, therefore, start from a configuration of outcropping isopycnals and demonstrate how an AD-EBM can be modified to include the effect of ventilation on ocean uptake of anomalous radiative forcing. The resulting EBM is able to successfully represent both surface warming and the vertical distribution of heat uptake, and indeed, a simple four-layer model suffices. The simplicity of the models notwithstanding, the analysis presented and the necessity of the modification highlight the role played by processes related to the down-welling branch of global ocean circulation in shaping the vertical distribution of ocean heat uptake.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Single- to multiple-year drought episodes posed significant challenges for agrarian communities across southern Africa during the nineteenth century and hence are widely recorded in a variety of historical documents. However, the ways in which droughts are articulated, and the focus of individual accounts, vary considerably between different authors and historical source types. This study draws on a range of documentary source types—specifically newspapers, letters, reports and diaries—to explore the varied narratives associated with three protracted droughts (those of 1861–1863, 1876–1879 and 1895–1897) that affected large areas of the subcontinent. The analysis spans four case study areas—present day KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa), Lesotho, Malawi and the southern Kalahari (Botswana and South Africa)—which were investigated as part of different interdisciplinary projects. We explore issues common to all case study areas, including (i) how specific drought events are framed and (ii) what is and is not reported about individual droughts across different source types. We conclude that different source types in the subcontinent may be more or less appropriate for addressing the specific objectives of historical climatology, particularly in relation to historical drought. Sources such as newspapers and weather diaries are rich in qualitative and quantitative observations suitable for the reconstruction of temporal and spatial patterns of weather and climate, as well as climate-related natural disasters. In contrast, letters, reports and personal journals, especially those written by missionaries, provide additional qualitative narratives through which to investigate the vulnerability of past societies and economies to climate variations, and to explore past discourses and social representations of climate. While studies of this kind have been published for European and American source types, this is the first systematic exploration of documentary sources for the historical climatology of Africa. It should therefore provide a guide for climate history studies elsewhere in the continent, or other regions where written records are absent prior to the arrival of European colonists.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉For the long-term management of coastal flood risks, investment and policy strategies need to be developed in light of the full range of uncertainties associated with mean sea-level rise (SLR). This, however, remains a challenge due to deep uncertainties involved in SLR assessments, many ways of representing uncertainties and a lack of common terminology for referring to these. To contribute to addressing these limitations, this paper first develops a typology of representations of SLR uncertainty by categorising these at three levels: (i) SLR scenarios versus SLR predictions, (ii) the type of variable that is used to represent SLR uncertainty, and (iii) partial versus complete uncertainty representations. Next, it is analysed how mean SLR uncertainty is represented and how representations are converted within the following three strands of literature: SLR assessments, impact assessments and decision analyses. We find that SLR assessments mostly produce partial or complete precise probabilistic scenarios. The likely ranges in the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are a noteworthy example of partial imprecise probabilistic scenarios. SLR impact assessments and decision analyses mostly use deterministic scenarios. In conversions of uncertainty representations, a range of arbitrary assumptions are made, for example on functional forms of probability distributions and relevant confidence levels. The loss of quality and the loss of information can be reduced by disregarding deterministic and complete precise probabilistic predictions for decisions with time horizons of several decades or centuries and by constructing imprecise probabilistic predictions and using these in approaches for robust decision-making.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Climate change threatens all parts of the US electric power system, from electricity generation to distribution. An important dimension of this issue is the impact on electricity demand. While many studies have looked at these impacts, few have tried to represent this effect at higher temporal resolutions (such as daily or sub-daily) or to analyze its seasonal aspects. Our study expands on previous work to improve our understanding of how climate change can affect patterns of hourly electricity demand, the differences in these effects over different seasons, and how this in turn could affect the operations of the power system. For this analysis, we combine a linear regression model, a simplified economic dispatch model, and projections from twenty different climate models to analyze how climate change may affect seasonal demand patterns and, consequently, power plants dispatch. We use this method to analyze a case study of the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). The results suggest that climate change can result in an average increase in annual electricity consumption in the TVA region of 6% by the end of the century and an increase in the frequency of peak demand values (the maximum quantity of electricity demanded during an hour). However, this increase is not uniformly distributed throughout the year. During summer, total electricity consumption can increase on average by 20% while during winter, it may decrease on average by 6% by the end of the century. Such changes in demand could result in changes in the typical dispatch patterns of TVA’s power plants. Estimated summer time capacity factors would increase (8 to 37% for natural gas and 71 to 84% for coal) and winter time capacity factor decrease (3% to virtually zero for natural gas and 67 to 60% for coal). Such results could affect the decision-making process of planning agents in the power sector.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The study considers the most important livestock regions of Argentina and the correlation between livestock and climate units. The conceptual scheme designed to understand these effects of climate elements on cattle describes a basic direct action by the air temperature in the environment in which they develop, considering temperature as the limit for the distribution of breeds and other action through its effects on vegetation and forage resources that will be available. The work done here shows a shift of the livestock regions southward and eastward simultaneously in the region under consideration. This is a consequence of the displacement towards the south of the isotherm of 26 °C and towards the east of the humidity indices, co-incidentally with the displacement of the isohyets of 600 and 1200 mm. As a consequence of the climate change, according to the CCSM4 climate model, in the near and far future under two emission scenarios, the regions suitable for tropical livestock (breeds with high heat tolerance as the 〈em〉Bos indicus〈/em〉) will extend to the southeast, displacing and reducing the regions suitable for European breed cattle. The displacement of the higher rainfall area mainly to the east could benefit livestock production by increasing forage and reducing livestock feed requirements.〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉The article 〈em〉Whose carbon is burnable〈/em〉? 〈em〉Equity considerations in the allocation of a〈/em〉 “〈em〉right to extract〈/em〉,” written by Sivan Kartha, Simon Caney, Navroz K. Dubash, and Greg Muttitt, was originally published electronically on the publisher’s internet portal (currently SpringerLink) on 24 May 2018.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In this final paper, the guest editors identify and discuss ten guidelines emerging from the papers in this Special Issue on Decision-Support Tools for Climate Change Adaptation. The guidelines are arranged under three headings: foundational, design and construction, and supporting sustainability in the long term. Under foundational, we address the need for co-operation with end users of decision-support resources, the contribution these resources can make to the formation of thriving communities of practice, and the match between the different types of decision support and user needs. Under design and construction, we point to the risk that policy settings will change over the multiple years required to build and publish complex decision-support resources, reducing the relevance of the final product. We discuss the need for innovative approaches to ensure visibility, credibility and hence uptake. Developers should be mindful of the requirements, resources and capabilities of potential users at all points in the design and build. We also suggest that decision-support resources may be transferable between sectors and locations, but the motivation should be around achieving excellence, and not just cost savings. Under supporting sustainability in the long term, we stress the need for evaluation and comparative studies of performance, leading to carefully documented updating and improvement of decision-support resources. Finally, in the conclusions, we look to the future. Can decision-support resources evolve successfully to meet the information and guidance requirements of the increasingly sophisticated adaptation practitioner community?〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉For a decision support framework (DSF) to enable effective decision-making in climate change adaptation, it is important that stakeholders are involved in its development, in order to ensure that it is usable and useful. More specifically, stakeholder involvement may help to ensure that the DSF better meets user needs and expectations, as well as providing legitimate, relevant and trusted information. Involving users also helps to support social learning and build a community of adaptors. This paper describes a case study in Australia of the development of a DSF, called CoastAdapt, for coastal decision makers to adapt to the impacts of climate change, in particular sea-level rise. We use the IAP2 Spectrum to outline how stakeholders were involved. We also describe the specific activities undertaken in developing the DSF, according to how they contribute to conditions of legitimacy, credibility and saliency suggested in ‘boundary’ work. We conclude with some practical suggestions for considering these attributes in development of a DSF, noting that each attribute is important and requires consideration both separately and together.〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉The original article has been corrected. The copyright holder has been update to © The Author(s) and the article is now published with open access.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The precipitation record taken by J.B. Beccari in Bologna from 1723 to 1765, with three observations a day, has been recovered from the original Logs and analysed. Although metadata are scarce or even missing, a thorough investigation of the contemporary sources, the interactions between Beccari, his colleagues in Padua, and the Royal Society London, as well as the record analysis, have allowed reconstruction of most of the information concerning the instrument, its location and exposure, the measuring protocol and units. Daily, monthly and yearly amounts and frequencies, as well as extreme events, have been analysed. The first decade (i.e. 1723–1733) was drier than the 1961–1990 reference period and the subsequent decades wetter. During the calendar year, summer was dryer and October was characterized by a stronger activity of Atlantic perturbations.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Climate information and agro-advisory services are crucial in helping smallholder farmers and pastoralists in East Africa manage climate-related risks and adapt to climate change. However, significant gaps exist in provision of climate information that effectively addresses the needs of farmers and pastoralists. Most farmers and pastoralists, therefore, rely on indigenous knowledge (IK), where local indicators and experiences are used to observe and forecast weather conditions. While IK-based forecasting is inbuilt and established in many communities in East Africa, coordinated research and systematic documentation of IK for weather forecasting, including accuracy and reliability of IK is largely lacking. This paper documents and synthesizes existing IK for weather forecasting in East Africa using case studies from Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda. The results show that farmers and pastoralists use a combination of meteorological, biological, and astrological indicators to forecast local weather conditions. IK weather forecasting is, therefore, crucial in supporting efforts to improve access to climate information in East Africa, especially in resource-poor and vulnerable communities. The paper draws valuable lessons on how farmers and pastoralists in East Africa use IK weather forecasts for making crop and livestock production decisions and demonstrates that the trust and willingness to apply scientific forecasts by farmers and pastoralists is likely to increase when integrated with IK. Therefore, a systematic documentation of IK, and a framework for integrating IK and scientific weather forecasting from national meteorological agencies can improve accuracy, uptake, and use of weather forecasts.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The assessment of the impacts of climate change at different levels of global warming helps inform national and international policy discussion around mitigation targets. This paper provides consistent estimates of global and regional impacts and risks at increases in global mean temperature up to 5 °C above pre-industrial levels, for over 30 indicators representing temperature extremes and heatwaves, hydrological change, floods and droughts and proxies for impacts on crop yields. At the global scale, all the impacts that could plausibly be either adverse or beneficial are adverse, and impacts and risks increase with temperature change. For example, the global average chance of a major heatwave increases from 5% in 1981–2010 to 28% at 1.5 °C and 92% at 4 °C, of an agricultural drought increases from 9 to 24% at 1.5 °C and 61% at 4 °C, and of the 50-year return period river flood increases from 2 to 2.4% at 1.5 °C and 5.4% at 4 °C. The chance of a damaging hot spell for maize increases from 5 to 50% at 4 °C, whilst the chance for rice rises from 27 to 46%. There is considerable uncertainty around these central estimates, and impacts and risks vary between regions. Some impacts—for example heatwaves—increase rapidly as temperature increases, whilst others show more linear responses. The paper presents estimates of the risk of impacts exceeding specific targets and demonstrates that these estimates are sensitive to the thresholds used.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Although Paraguay has a surplus of electricity generation capacity, an underdeveloped electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure has constrained economic growth. The trajectory of future electricity demand is therefore important for planning purposes. We create electricity demand scenarios for Paraguay between 2017 and 2050 for two climatic scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 (medium atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration) and 8.5 (high atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration), in combination with three socio-economic scenarios, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP1, SSP3 and SSP5. Using historical climatic and socio-economic data from 1985 to 2010, we estimate an autoregressive distributed lag model for Paraguayan power demand with an in-sample symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) of 2.3% and an out-of-sample (2011–2016) 〈em〉ex-post〈/em〉 sMAPE of 4.6%. We re-estimate the parameters on the full dataset 1985–2016 and produce electricity demand projections until 2050 for the selected scenarios. The scenarios show an increase in power demand until the period 2045, after which two of the six scenarios show a decline and the remainder continue increasing at a slower rate. The SSP1- and SSP5-based scenarios reach an annual demand of 65–80 TWh/year around 2045–2050, and the scenarios based on SSP3 reach an annual demand of 100–115 TWh/year around 2050. In addition to aid in energy planning, these scenarios may provide input to negotiations with neighbouring countries regarding Paraguay’s surplus generation capacity.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In this study, bias-corrected daily rainfall data of eight global climate models (GCMs) was used as input for a hydrologic model (Hydrological Engineering Center - Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS)) to simulate daily streamflow in the Upper Ayerawaddy River basin (UARB), Myanmar. Monthly, seasonal, annual, and decadal mean flows, calculated for the baseline (1975–2014), were compared with projections for future periods (2040s: 2021–2060 and 2080s: 2061–2100) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The spread of low flows (10th and 25th percentile of daily flows) and high flows (75th, 90th, and 100th percentiles) were analyzed for each period. The ensemble of GCMs indicates an increase in mean monthly (except in October and November), seasonal (except post-monsoon), annual, and decadal rainfalls and corresponding flows in the UARB. Future low flows are expected to have high variability while high flows are expected to have higher means than that of baseline. The density distribution analysis of baseline and future flows reveals that future periods are likely to experience an increase in the magnitude of mean flows but a decrease in variability. Rainfall extremes indicated by 1-day maximum rainfall, 5-day consecutive maximum rainfall, and the number of extreme rainfall days reveals frequent wetter extremes in the UARB under future climate conditions. Extreme floods, as estimated by the frequency analysis of daily flows, are also expected to become more frequent during the future periods. These changes in flows can be attributed solely to climate change since the analyses did not account impacts of possible land use change and water resources development in the UARB. This study is a good starting point to assess future flows, and further research is recommended to address the limitations of this study for improved understanding and assessments that will prove useful for planning purposes in the study area.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Wheat is an important staple crop sensitive to negative effects from elevated tropospheric ozone (O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉) concentrations, but the impacts of future O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 concentrations on wheat production in Mexico are unknown. To determine these impacts, the O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉-modified DSSAT-NWheat crop model was used to simulate wheat production in Mexico using a baseline scenario with pre-industrial O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 concentrations from 1980 to 2010 and five Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario from 2041 to 2070 paired with future O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 concentrations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) Meteorological Synthesizing Centre–West (MSC-W) model. Thirty-two representative major wheat-producing locations in Mexico were simulated assuming both irrigated and rainfed conditions for two O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 sensitivity cultivar classifications. The simulations showed large variability (after averaging over 30 years) in yield loss, ranging from 7 to 26% because of O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 impact, depending on the location, irrigation, and climate change emissions scenario. After upscaling and aggregating the simulations to the country scale based on observed irrigated and rainfed production, national wheat production for Mexico is expected to decline by 12% under the future RCP 8.5 climate change scenario with additional losses of 7 to 18% because of O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 impact, depending on the cultivar O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 sensitivity. This yield loss caused by O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 is comparable with, or even larger than, the impact from projected future climatic change in temperature, rainfall, and atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration. Therefore, O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 impacts should be considered in future agricultural impact assessments.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The practice of using climate metrics to estimate carbon dioxide equivalent emissions has long been subject to scientific discussion. One strand of this literature has analysed whether the choice of metric affects the relative cost-effectiveness of options for climate change abatement, but there has been little discussion on the effect of metric choices on cost-effective abatement of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs). These NTCFs are air pollutants primarily regulated by policies outside the climate policy arena and their estimated carbon dioxide equivalent emissions are not typically considered in the evaluation of cost-effective abatement. However, the attention to NTCFs as climate forcers has increased during the last decade. The objective of this paper is to identify whether the relative cost-effectiveness of different NTCF abatement options is robust to climate metric choices. We assess nine plausible NTCF abatement options available in Sweden (with negligible effect on long-lived GHG emissions) and evaluate the robustness of the ranking of these, according to their estimated cost-effectiveness. Different metric designs are considered as well as climate impact uncertainty of NTCFs, with corresponding uncertainty in metric values. The results indicate that the choice of metric has little effect on the ranking of the options according to their cost-effectiveness, with options affecting NO〈sub〉x〈/sub〉 indicated as an exception. This suggests that the choice of metric utilised when calculating cost-effectiveness of NTCF abatement options is likely to have minor effect on which NTCF abatement options should be targeted for policy interventions (if NO〈sub〉x〈/sub〉 emissions are not significantly affected).〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Scientists need to acknowledge the inherent social contexts that drive the scientific process if they want their research to improve complex societal problems such as vulnerability to climate change. Social interactions and relationships are essential elements for conducting use-inspired research, creating usable knowledge, and providing climate services. The Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) program was founded on theories of use-inspired research and co-producing knowledge with non-academic partners. A recent program evaluation illuminated gaps in these underlying program models and led to the inclusion of social learning systems theory and communities of practice. Using grounded examples, we demonstrate the CLIMAS program’s ongoing role in fostering, maintaining, and expanding a climate resilience social learning system in the U.S. Southwest. Broader implications from the evaluation focus on the importance of establishing and maintaining relationships, increasing institutional and individual flexibility in response to change, and improving the practice of transdisciplinarity. These findings inform new program evaluation metrics and data collection techniques. This paper contributes to current theory and practice of use-inspired science and climate services by identifying and demonstrating how social interactions inform climate knowledge production. The reconceptualization of the CLIMAS program as part of a growing regional social learning system serves as an example for similar types of programs. We encourage climate services and use-inspired research programs to explore applications of this framework to their own operations.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉It has been postulated that personal experience of climate change–related weather events may reduce the psychological distance to climate change and trigger engagement in climate protection measures. We use a novel longitudinal dataset on revealed household behaviour and insured damage data to re-examine this relationship, which has mostly been studied by cross-sectional and self-reported data. Using a difference-in-differences estimator, we assess the causal effect of experiencing financial damage from the 2013 floods in Germany on the interest for renewable energy tariffs in online power portals, which we take as a proxy for engagement in climate protection. The results broadly confirm the expected positive effect of flood experience on climate engagement, but there are important non-linear effects. Most notably, the effect drops to zero if damage is very high meaning the causal effect of flood experience on interest in green energy holds only for moderately affected regions. One explanation for this inverted U-shaped effect is that high flood damage may constrain the available budget for costly climate protection, due to high recovery and reconstruction costs. We also suggest a number of psychological mechanisms that may play a role in explaining this non-linear effect, for example non-protective responses such as denial and fatalism if damage is high. When supporting private climate engagement, policymakers should not rely on a motivating effect of damage experience, but should acknowledge the economic and psychological limitations, especially of severely flood-affected households.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉When faced with natural disasters, communities respond in diverse ways, with processes that reflect their cultures, needs, and the extent of damage incurred by the community. Because of their potentially recurring nature, floods offer an opportunity for communities to learn from and adapt to these experiences with the goal of increasing resiliency through reflection, modification of former policies, and adoption of new policies. A key component of a community’s ability to learn from disaster is how community members perceive the causes of extreme flood events and whether there is risk of future similar events. Perceptions of causes of flooding, including climate change, may be influenced by experiencing a flood event, along with individual preferences for various policies put in place to help a community recover. Using data collected from two rounds of public surveys (〈em〉n〈/em〉 = 903) across six Colorado communities flooded in 2013, we investigate whether there is variation across causal understanding of flooding, and whether this variation can be linked to differences in proximity of damages experienced (personal property, neighborhood, or community). By analyzing these variables, along with other variables (time since flood, political affiliation, and worldview), this study improves our understanding of the factors that drive our beliefs about potential causes of floods, focusing on climate change. The findings suggest that the extent of damage experienced at the neighborhood and community levels can have a significant effect on the perceptions of climate change held by the public. In turn, these beliefs about climate change are positively associated with perceptions of risks of future flooding.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Global warming is caused mainly by CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emission from burning fossil fuels and is beginning to have large negative impacts on human well-being and ecosystems (IPCC 〈span〉2014〈/span〉; IPCC 〈span〉2018〈/span〉). Policies that mitigate CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions will require public support. Here, we examine how support for several possible decarbonization policies varies as a function of the personal carbon footprint of a researcher who advocates the policy. We find that people are more likely to support policies if the advocate for these policies has a low carbon footprint. Replicating our prior work, we find that the communicators’ carbon footprint massively affect their credibility and intentions of their audience to conserve energy (Attari, Krantz and Weber 〈span〉2016〈/span〉). Our new finding is that their carbon footprint also affects audience support for public policies advocated by the communicator. In a second study, we show that the negative effects of a large carbon footprint on credibility are greatly reduced if the communicator reforms their behavior by reducing their personal carbon footprints. The implications of these results are stark: effective communication of climate science and advocacy of both individual behavior change and public policy interventions are greatly helped when advocates lead the way by reducing their own carbon footprint.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Climate change has become a global concern with important impacts in all regions of the world, especially in agriculture sector. In response, farmers take different adaptation strategies to minimise the negative impacts of climate change. This study provides answers to how farmers perceive climate change and what drives their adaptation decisions. To do this, data were collected from a random sample of 200 maize farmers in the municipality of Zè, Benin. Results indicated that almost all the maize farmers perceived change in climate variables. The adaptation strategies used by maize farmers in the municipality of Zè included adjustment in sowing time, use of improved crop varieties, crop and livestock integration and tree planting. Estimates of the multivariate probit model revealed that farmers’ capacity to choose a specific adaptation strategy is affected by age, gender, marital status, education, experience in maize production, credit, distance to market, ownership of TV and agricultural training. These results suggest the need for institutional and technology support measures in adapting to climate change.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This paper comments on the applicability of the global indicators of climate change adaptation policy drivers contained in Berrang-Ford et al. (2014) (Climatic Change, 124(1–2), 441–450. 〈span〉https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1078-3〈/span〉) for small island developing states (SIDS). SIDS are a globally recognised ‘special’ case in terms of environment and sustainable development issues as they are disproportionately vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. While acknowledging that the choice of final indicators in the Berrang-Ford et al. (〈span〉2014〈/span〉) assessment was primarily the function of the results of bivariate analyses with their Adaptation Initiatives Index and that there is no certainty of statistically significant relationships with any measure of adaptation initiatives, this paper proposes the inclusion of a number of predictor variables for a future SIDS-specific quantitative analysis. By doing this, this commentary helps to contribute a more nuanced understanding of potential national adaptation policy drivers in SIDS.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Decision-making in the area of coastal adaptation is facing major challenges due to ambiguity (i.e., deep uncertainty) pertaining to the selection of a probability model for sea level rise (〈em〉SLR〈/em〉) projections. Possibility distributions are mathematical tools that address this type of uncertainty since they bound all the plausible probability models that are consistent with the available data. In the present study, 〈em〉SLR〈/em〉 uncertainties are represented by a possibility distribution constrained by likely ranges provided in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and by a review of high-end scenarios. On this basis, we propose a framework combining probabilities and possibilities to evaluate how 〈em〉SLR〈/em〉 uncertainties accumulate with other sources of uncertainties, such as future greenhouse gas emissions, upper bounds of future sea level changes, the regional variability of sea level changes, the vertical ground motion, and the contributions of extremes and wave effects. We apply the framework to evaluate the probability of coastal flooding by the year 2100 at a local, low-lying coastal French urban area on the Mediterranean coast. We show that when adaptation is limited to maintaining current defenses, the level of ambiguity is too large to precisely assign a probability model to future flooding. Raising the coastal walls by 85 cm creates a safety margin that may not be considered sufficient by local stakeholders. A sensitivity analysis highlights the key role of deep uncertainties pertaining to global 〈em〉SLR〈/em〉 and of the statistical uncertainty related to extremes. The ranking of uncertainties strongly depends on the decision-maker’s attitude to risk (e.g., neutral, averse), which highlights the need for research combining advanced mathematical theories of uncertainties with decision analytics and social science.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In a scenario of the apparent adverse effects of climate change, adaptation strategies are needed. The complex cross-sector nature of climate challenges provides a compelling case for a more coherent policy approach. Combinations of policy instruments take different shapes and involve a different set of actors depending on the territory in which they materialise. In this article, the spatial distribution patterns of climate public investments are analysed by mapping the territoriality of policy priorities, functional overlaps and instrument conflicts. It provides an analytical framework named Nexus+, which heuristically defines the scope and interfaces of adaptation strategies. The framework is applied to the case of the northern border of Mato Grosso, located in the south-eastern region of the Brazilian Amazon, where the effects of climate change are expected to impact key economic and social activities.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Climatic variation within a typical dry-valley area located in the southern Hengduan Mountains of China is studied, and the potential regional climate influences of large reservoirs in the area are discussed. Six meteorological stations near a reservoir are identified and classified into two categories (dry and non-dry valleys) to compare their level of climate change. Temperatures tended to increase since 1990 with a precipitation shift toward the dry season in both dry and non-dry valleys. Wavelet analysis shows that temperature and precipitation have significant variation with periods of 3.6 and 16.5 years, respectively. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) shows that dry valleys have multiple drought trends. Temperature in non-dry valleys changed more than that in dry valleys, but the variations of other indices in the two categories of valleys are not statistically different. The climatic variation of one station is in accordance with the reservoir filling, which is related to the orientation of the reservoir in the prevailing wind direction especially during summer. This study provides a profile of the climate change of dry valleys and documents the influence of large artificial reservoirs on regional climate.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Large changes in biodiversity are expected to occur if climate change continues at its current pace. Adverse effects include changes in species habitats and compositions, and consequently changes in ecosystem functioning. We assessed the magnitude of expected changes of biodiversity by performing a meta-analysis of the responses of species distributions to climate change. We focused on the proportion of local remaining species and their habitats. We summarized 97 studies and calculated two effect-size metrics from their results to quantify changes in biodiversity. These metrics are the fraction of remaining species (FRS) and the fraction of remaining area (FRA) with suitable climate for each species. Both metrics calculate deviations from the original biodiversity state and together they indicate biodiversity intactness. We found an expected gradual decrease in both FRS and FRA with significant reductions of 14% and 35% between 1 and 2 °C increase in global mean temperatures. Strong impacts are projected for both mammals and plants with FRS reductions of 19%. The climate-change response of biodiversity varies strongly among taxonomic groups and biomes. For some taxonomic groups the FRA declines strongly beyond 3 °C of temperature increase. Although these estimates are conservative, as we assume that species are unable to disperse or adapt, we conclude that already at moderate levels (i.e., 1–2 °C) of temperature increase a significant decrease of original biodiversity is projected. Our research supports the pledge to limit climate change to 1.5 °C and preferably lower to protect biodiversity.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Gender mainstreaming was acknowledged as an indispensable strategy for achieving gender equality at the 1995 Beijing Platform for Action. Since then, governments have made substantial efforts in developing gender-responsive policies and implementation strategies. The advent of climate change and its effects, which have continued to impact rural livelihoods and especially food security, demands that gender mainstreaming efforts are accelerated. Effective gender mainstreaming requires that gender is sufficiently integrated in policies, development plans, and implementation strategies, supported by budgetary allocations. This study analyzes the extent of gender integration in agricultural and natural resource policies in Uganda and Tanzania, and how gender is budgeted for in implementation plans at district and lower governance levels. A total of 155 policy documents, development plans, and annual action plans from national, district, and sub-county/ward levels were reviewed. In addition, district and sub-county budgets for four consecutive financial years from 2012/2013 to 2015/2016 were analyzed for gender allocations. Results show that whereas there is increasing gender responsiveness in both countries, (i) gender issues are still interpreted as “women issues,” (ii) there is disharmony in gender mainstreaming across governance levels, (iii) budgeting for gender is not yet fully embraced by governments, (iii) allocations to gender at sub-national level remain inconsistently low with sharp differences between estimated and actual budgets, and (iv) gender activities do not address any structural inequalities. We propose approaches that increase capacity to develop and execute gender-responsive policies, implementation plans, and budgets.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉We investigate the influence of weather on countries’ GDP and their main components of production, namely total factor productivity, capital stock, and employment. Our panel dataset includes annual observations on 103 countries for the period 1961–2010. We find that the main impacts of weather occur through temperature and drive the growth in GDP. Our results show that, for higher levels of temperature, the poor countries are much more strongly impacted than the rich countries. We also find that weather impacts per capita GDP growth through all its factors of production, with the largest impacts on total factor productivity. Again it is the poor countries for which these impacts are the strongest. The findings provide empirical evidence for negative impacts of temperature on economic growth and its factors of production and furthermore point towards climate change as an important driver of international inequality.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Sea turtles are vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination. Rising temperatures due to climate change cause female-biased sex ratios. We have assessed the influence of nest depth and shading conditions on nest temperatures and hatchling fitness of the leatherback sea turtle (〈em〉Dermochelys coriacea〈/em〉). We relocated 48 leatherback clutches into a hatchery in 2013, 2014 and 2015, respectively. Of these, 24 clutches were placed under shade conditions and 24 were placed under unshaded (sun) conditions at three depths (50, 75, 90 cm). Fitness (as measured by greater carapace length, carapace width and hatchling weight) and locomotion performance (faster crawling and shorter righting responses) were better in leatherback hatchlings from the cooler, shaded nests than in those from the warmer, unshaded nests. In 2013, in clutches at a depth of 50 cm, hatching success was higher for the shaded clutches (79.68% ± 15.32%) than for the unshaded clutches (38.39% ± 34.35), while in clutches at deeper depths unshaded clutches had higher hatching success (35.58% ± 24.01%) than shaded clutches (60.62% ± 12.21%). Our results show that shaded conditions produced hatchlings with a higher fitness and a higher likelihood of being male. Therefore, our results can be used to provide conservation policies with a tool to decrease the current female-skewed sex ratio production caused by rising temperatures at most nesting rookeries around the world.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The ice core glacial-interglacial record of the last 450 kyr (Cortese et al. Paleogeogr Paleoclimatol 22:4, 〈span〉2007〈/span〉), development of cold ice meltwater regions at fringes of the Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheets, and climate projections by Hansen et al. (Atmos Chem Phys 16:3761–3812, 〈span〉2016〈/span〉), support a relation between ice sheet melting and the cooling of neighboring ocean zones by ice meltwater. Several factors lead to cooling of parts of the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent lands, including the following: (A) a slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC); (B) flow of cold ice meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet into the North Atlantic Ocean; (C) undulation and weakening of the jet stream at the Arctic boundary due to a rise in temperature in the Arctic circle at twice the rate of warming at lower latitudes and the ice-water albedo flip. Penetration of Arctic-derived cold air masses southward through a weakened jet stream boundary ensues in extreme weather events in North America and Europe. The slowdown of the AMOC (Caesar et al. Nature 556:191–196, 〈span〉2018〈/span〉; Praetorius Nat Clim Chan〈em〉g〈/em〉 5:475–480, 〈span〉2018〈/span〉; Thornalley et al. Nature 556:227–230, 〈span〉2018〈/span〉; Smeed et al. Geophys Res Lett 45(3):1527–1533, 〈span〉2018〈/span〉) and growing cold ocean region (Rahmstorf et al. Nat Clim Chang 5:475–480, 〈span〉2015〈/span〉) may herald the onset of a stadial event. A large-scale stadial event, possibly on the scale of the 8.3–8.2 kyr-old Laurentian melt event, or even the 12.9–11.7-kyr-old 〈em〉Younger Dryas〈/em〉 stadial (Carlson Encycl Quat Sci 3:126–134, 〈span〉2013〈/span〉), could ensue from advanced melting of both the Greenland ice sheet and the Antarctic ice sheet. A stadial would be succeeded by the resumption of warming driven by a continuing rise in greenhouse gas concentrations and amplifying feedback effects. These projections need to be examined vis-a-vis the continuous linear IPCC temperature rise models.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This study examines model-specific assumptions and projections of methane (CH〈sub〉4〈/sub〉) emissions in deep mitigation scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs). For this, scenarios of nine models are compared in terms of sectoral and regional CH〈sub〉4〈/sub〉 emission reduction strategies, as well as resulting climate impacts. The models’ projected reduction potentials are compared to sector and technology-specific reduction potentials found in literature. Significant cost-effective and non-climate policy related reductions are projected in the reference case (10–36% compared to a “frozen emission factor” scenario in 2100). Still, compared to 2010, CH〈sub〉4〈/sub〉 emissions are expected to rise steadily by 9–72% (up to 412 to 654 Mt CH〈sub〉4〈/sub〉/year). Ambitious CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 reduction measures could by themselves lead to a reduction of CH〈sub〉4〈/sub〉 emissions due to a reduction of fossil fuels (22–48% compared to the reference case in 2100). However, direct CH〈sub〉4〈/sub〉 mitigation is crucial and more effective in bringing down CH〈sub〉4〈/sub〉 (50–74% compared to the reference case). Given the limited reduction potential, agriculture CH〈sub〉4〈/sub〉 emissions are projected to constitute an increasingly larger share of total anthropogenic CH〈sub〉4〈/sub〉 emissions in mitigation scenarios. Enteric fermentation in ruminants is in that respect by far the largest mitigation bottleneck later in the century with a projected 40–78% of total remaining CH〈sub〉4〈/sub〉 emissions in 2100 in a strong (2 °C) climate policy case.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Brazilian cities host 86% of the country’s population and have been more intensely hit by rising temperatures than the average of cities across the world over the last century. Nevertheless, assessments of the vulnerability of Brazilian urban dwellers to urban heat islands (UHI) are scarce. In this study, we take advantage of the availability of high-resolution data to calculate the heat stress vulnerability and risk indexes (〈em〉HSVI〈/em〉 and 〈em〉HSRI〈/em〉, respectively) for people inhabiting six Brazilian metropolitan areas—Manaus, Natal, Vitória, São Paulo, Curitiba, and Porto Alegre. The indexes are calculated by mathematically relating indicators of exposure (distribution of 〉65-year-old elderly people), sensitivity/adaptive capacity (human development index, 〈em〉HDI〈/em〉), and hazard (surface temperature). The resulting 〈em〉HSVI〈/em〉 maps reflect the socioeconomic (〈em〉HDI〈/em〉) differences found among the studied cities, with the most vulnerable people located in the poorest neighborhoods in Manaus (0.720) and Natal (0.733), distributed among lower- and mid-class zones in São Paulo (0.794) and Vitória (0.772), or invariably located in the wealthy zones of Curitiba (0.783) and Porto Alegre (0.762). Two distinct patterns are identified for the 〈em〉HSRI〈/em〉: in São Paulo, Vitória, Curitiba, and Porto Alegre, high and very high risks are found in the wealthy zones of the cities, whereas in Natal and Manaus, high and very high risks are encountered in the poorly developed city zones, a result that was strongly driven by the UHI pattern. Better communication of heat stress risk and the improvement of city greenness should be the focus of near-term adaptation strategies for the mapped vulnerable population.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Reduction of carbon emissions and climate-resilience in cities are becoming important objectives to be achieved in order to ensure sustainable urban development pathways. Traditionally, cities have treated climate mitigation and adaptation strategies in isolation, without addressing their potential synergies, conflicts or trade-offs. Recent studies have shown that this can lead to inefficiencies in urban planning, conflicting policy objectives and lost opportunities for synergistic actions. However, in the last few years, we have observed that cities are increasingly moving towards addressing both mitigation and adaptation in urban planning. Cities need to pay particular attention and understand the rationale of both policy objectives whilst considering the integration of the two policies in urban planning and decision-making. This study presents an analytical framework to evaluate the level of integration of climate mitigation and adaptation in cities’ local climate action plans. We tested this framework in nine selected major cities, representatives from all inhabited continents, which are frontrunners in climate action both in their regions and globally. We applied the framework in order to evaluate the level of mitigation and adaptation integration in cities’ CCAPs and further explored the different types of mitigation—adaptation interrelationships that have been considered. A scoring system was also devised in order to allow comparing and ranking of the different CCAPs for their level of integration of adaptation and mitigation. The paper draws good practices to support cities in developing climate change action plans in an integrated way.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Climate change is an ongoing process that has profound impacts on global environment and economy. This study focused on floods impacting Guyanese sugar industry. The study developed a conceptual framework representing an agriculture system’s vulnerability to a climate change stimulus/stimuli to assist in selecting indicators that can more accurately and realistically represent vulnerability. The development of a conceptual framework followed the IPCC (〈span〉2007〈/span〉) framework composing of three vulnerability factors, that is, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; however, it added some novelty as to how each of these factors is defined, their relationships, sequence of their occurrences, and their attributes. This study uses an impact-based approach to identify sensitivity indicators by investigating the impacts of floods on Guyanese sugar. This methodology resulted in indicators that can realistically measure an agriculture system’s vulnerability to a climate change stimulus/stimuli. Multiple indicators were used to measure sugar vulnerability with experts’ opinions used to assign weights (by the Analytical Hierarchy Process) to both the vulnerability factors and their indicators to arrive at annual sugar vulnerability indexes for the period 2003 to 2016. The study showed that Guyanese sugar was highly vulnerable to floods and adaptation measures were identified to target specific indicators.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In order to plan for agricultural irrigation, the drought risk and amount of water needed for crops must be well studied. In this work, we apply the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Crop Water Need (CWN) using input data from a fine-resolution Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) to assess the risk of future agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia from 2020 to 2029. The NRCM was performed with resolutions of 60 and 10-km grid spacing for the present (1990–1999) and the future (2020–2029). The model employs initial and boundary conditions from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) for meteorological variables. Two simulations, present-day (1990–1999) and future (2020–2029), were conducted under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate scenario. In general, the comparison between the NRCM predictions and observed data shows that the NRCM reasonably predicts precipitation and 2-m temperature with a high correlation of 0.89–0.98 and index of agreement (IOA) values ranging from 0.76 to 0.95. The future precipitation tends to decrease by (−1)–(1) mm/day, while the temperature will increase by up to 2–3 °C, which are favorable conditions for drought risk. Additionally, the SPI values between (− 1.5) and 0 for both the dry and rainy seasons indicate a high possibility of drought events in the future. There seemed to be some evidence of drought risk in this region, but the calculation of CWN indicates that the region will remain relatively water rich for agriculture.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The annual minimum of lake surface water temperature influences ecological and biogeochemical processes, but variability and change in this extreme have not been investigated. Here, we analysed observational data from eight European lakes and investigated the changes in annual minimum surface water temperature. We found that between 1973 and 2014, the annual minimum lake surface temperature has increased at an average rate of + 0.35 °C decade〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉, comparable to the rate of summer average lake surface temperature change during the same period (+ 0.32 °C decade〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉). Coherent responses to climatic warming are observed between the increase in annual minimum lake surface temperature and the increase in winter air temperature variations. As a result of the rapid warming of annual minimum lake surface temperatures, some of the studied lakes no longer reach important minimum surface temperature thresholds that occur in winter, with complex and significant potential implications for lakes and the ecosystem services that they provide.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This paper evaluates whether and how weather conditions affect museum attendance. As a case study, we examine the daily attendance at the Museo Regionale della Ceramica (Regional Museum of Ceramics) in Caltagirone, Sicily (Italy), over the period starting from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2016. In addition to the daily and monthly fixed effects and the influence of tourism, which are investigated by the available literature, we document a significant effect of weather conditions, specifically temperature and rainfall, which work in an asymmetric way across the different seasons. Temperature has a significant non-monotonic effect on museum attendance, with an increase having a positive impact in low-temperature (non-summer) months and a negative impact in high-temperature (summer) season; rainfalls encourage museum visits but only during summer months. Some long-term projections concerning the impact of weather modifications upon museum attendance due to climate change are proposed and discussed.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Pressure of freshwater resources has intensified in recent decades, stressing agricultural communities worldwide. Research is needed to advance our understanding of the factors that support resilience. Past research suggests that social capital positively predicts health and well-being; yet, we know surprisingly little about the relationship between social capital and resilience to environmental stress. Some scholars have cautioned that tight-knit social relationships can also constrain behavior and undermine flexibility, which could undermine adaptive responses to environmental stress. In this analysis, we use survey data from 225 smallholding rice farmers in Sri Lanka to examine the relationship between individual-level measures of cognitive and structural social capital measured before a drought-affected season, and livelihood outcomes (rice yields and income loss) measured after the season. We also examined if membership in less powerful groups (landless, female, and poor farmers) moderated the relationship between social capital and livelihood outcomes. Higher levels of perceived social cohesion (a measure of cognitive social capital) were associated with poorer yields for both female and landless farmers; yet, the yields of male and landowning farmers were unrelated to perceived social cohesion. Likewise, landless farmers with higher levels of community participation (a form of structural social capital) experienced a marginally higher rate of lost income due to the drought. These data suggest that the relationship between social capital and resilience operates differently for different members of the community. Importantly, some community members may face a difficult tradeoff between agricultural productivity and maintaining social relationships.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Crop phenology changes are important indicators of climate change. Climate change impacts on crop phenology are generally investigated through statistical analysis of the relationship between growth period length and growth period mean temperature. However, growth periods may be either earlier or later in a given year; hence, changes in mean temperature indicate both the effects of climate change and those attributable to seasonal temperature differences. Failure to consider temperature change resulting from seasonal shifts can lead to biased estimation of warming trends and their corresponding impact on phenology. We evaluated this potential bias in rice phenology change in 892 phenology series from China by applying time series regression control for phenological dates. The results indicate that the true magnitudes of climate change for early rice, late rice, and single rice are 0.20–0.56, 0.23–0.86, and 0.28–0.38 K/decade, after correction for the effects of seasonal shifts. The effects of seasonal shifts of growth periods led to underestimates of the magnitude of climate change by 0.16–0.22 and 0.05–0.08 K/decade for early rice and single rice, respectively, and an overestimate of the effect for late rice of 0.02–0.06 K/decade. Correspondingly, the net warming impacts on growth period length after correcting for the effects of seasonal shifts were − 2.7 d/K for early rice, − 4.8 d/K for late rice, and − 3.1 d/K for single rice, which were weaker for early and single rice, but stronger for late rice, relative to previous reports. Changes in growth period length were most closely associated with variation in phenological dates, while their relationship with climate change was less pronounced. Our results indicate that earlier phenological dates and prolonged-duration cultivars have been adopted to offset the impact of climate change, providing further evidence of active adaptation of rice cultivation practice to climate change in China.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉One of the biggest challenges to sustainability is lack of public support for policies needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Across three studies, we explored how solution framing impacts public support for financially costly policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Study 1 analyzed data from a statewide public opinion poll (〈em〉N〈/em〉 = 771), while studies 2 (〈em〉N〈/em〉 = 100) and 3 (〈em〉N〈/em〉 = 163) were laboratory-based experiments. Specifically, we found that polling questions that asked about a financially costly climate change policy received more support when the goal of the policy was to create efficient technologies than when the goal was to curtail behavior. In addition, we replicate previous research showing that there is a partisan gap for beliefs about global warming and extend this research to show that the partisan gap is not found when looking at support for solutions. The implications of these results for promoting needed climate change policies is discussed.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has put a lot of efforts to describe uncertainties and to judge the confidence level of its major conclusions. Despite a guidance to communicate uncertainty, the assignment of confidence is not sufficiently clear and, thus, hard to be reproduced by the extern community. By conducting a synthesis assessment about the impacts of climate change on the Brazilian water resources, we identified an opportunity to illustrate the characterization of 〈em〉evidence〈/em〉 as adopted in IPCC reports. We propose a method to describe the 〈em〉evidence〈/em〉 from model outputs wherein the 〈em〉quality〈/em〉 and 〈em〉amount〈/em〉 of studies, as well as the 〈em〉consistency〈/em〉 among their conclusions, are subject of a transparent rating procedure. In summary, the more comprehensive the study in sampling uncertainties, the higher its 〈em〉quality〈/em〉. Likewise, the 〈em〉amount〈/em〉 and 〈em〉consistency〈/em〉 among conclusions is assigned in a systematic way. The method is applied for synthesizing a collection of 42 peer-reviewed articles. It reveals important aspects about the 〈em〉evidence〈/em〉 of the potential impacts of climate change in the Brazilian water resources, such as changes into a drier hydrological regime. However, the use of multi-model ensemble, the evaluation of models, and the observational data is limited. The proposed method enables consistent communication of the degree of 〈em〉evidence〈/em〉 in a transparent, traceable, and comprehensive fashion. The method can be used as a tool to support experts on their judgment. The approach is reproducible and can guide synthesis work not only in Brazil but anywhere else.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The European Union has recently established the “Clean Energy for all Europeans” climate policy framework, aiming at the achievement of the European Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the Paris Agreement. The EU28 NDC includes a commitment for emission reductions in 2030 but also refers to an economy-wide effort towards 2050 so as to contribute effectively to the long-term mitigation of climate change. We discuss the respective EU28 emission pathways in the context of a well below 2 °C global climate stabilization target and estimate the macroeconomic impacts for the EU28 economy by considering alternative levels of climate action for major non-EU emitters. We employ two models, the technology-rich energy system model PRIMES, and the global large-scale hybrid computable general equilibrium model GEM-E3. The two models are soft linked so as to ensure a consistent and robust framework of analysis. We find that emission reductions in the energy supply sector are dominant up to 2030 while transport takes the lead in 2050. Transport and non-CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions are the main remaining emitting sources in 2050. We present the key decarbonization pillars and confirm that the impacts on the EU28 economy largely depend on the level of mitigation action adopted by the rest of the world and by the relative carbon intensity across regions. Due to asymmetric ambition of climate policies, a global implementation of NDCs results in economic losses for the EU28 when compared with a “pre-Paris” policy reference scenario, despite positive effects on energy-intensive and clean technology exports. On the contrary, we find that the region registers economic gains in the case of coordinated 2 °C global climate action.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This research explores the agent dynamics, learning processes, and enabling conditions for the implementation of microscale win-win solutions that contribute to energy poverty eradication and climate resilience in a selection of low-income rural and peri-urban communities in India, Indonesia, and South Africa. We define these micro-solutions as energy-related interventions and resilience services or products—used at community, household, small production unit, or business level—that yield both economic and climatic gains. Our analysis identifies five elements critical for the robust design of these interventions: (i) The ability to collaborate and share different kinds of expertise with a range of networks operating at multiple levels of activity; (ii) The application of place-based systems-learning perspectives that enable project participants to integrate different types of solutions to meet different needs at the same time; (iii) The ability to yield tangible short-term benefits as part of long-term strategic visions and commitment; (iv) The use of novel technologies and financial instruments in ways that foreground the needs of poor populations; and (v) The inclusion and empowerment of economically marginalised groups through institutional and technological innovations and responsible business models. We conclude that the most critical aspect of successful micro win-win solutions is support for communities’ own endogenous transformative capacities as this helps ensure that solutions are shared and continuously adapted to changing conditions over time.〈/p〉