ALBERT

Description:    Existing methods for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in productive activities and sectors are usually limited to point estimates that do not consider the inherent variability and uncertainty of climatic and socioeconomic variables. This is a major drawback given that only a limited and potentially misleading estimation of risk can be expected when ignoring such determinant factors. In this paper, a new methodology is introduced that is capable of integrating the agent’s beliefs and expert judgment into the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in a quantitative manner by means of an objective procedure. The goal is to produce tailor-made information to assist decision-making under uncertainty in a way that is consistent with the current state of knowledge and the available subjective “expert” information. Time-charts of the evolution of different risk measures, that can be relevant for assisting decision-making and planning, can be constructed using this new methodology. This methodology is illustrated with a case study of coffee production in Mexico. Time-dependent probabilistic scenarios for coffee production and income, conditional on the agent’s beliefs and expert judgment, are developed for the average producer under uncertain future conditions. It is shown that variability in production and income, generated by introducing climate variability and uncertainty are important factors affecting decision-making and the assessment of economic viability that are frequently ignored. The concept of Value at Risk, commonly applied in financial risk management, is introduced as a means for estimating the maximum expected loss for a previously chosen confidence level. Results are tailor-made for agents that have incomplete information and different beliefs. In this case study, the costs of climate change for coffee production in Veracruz are estimated to have a present value representing from 3 to 14 times the current annual value of coffee production in the state. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-25 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0353-9 Authors Francisco Estrada, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad Universitaria, Circuito Exterior, 0451 Mexico, DF, Mexico Carlos Gay, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad Universitaria, Circuito Exterior, 0451 Mexico, DF, Mexico Cecilia Conde, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad Universitaria, Circuito Exterior, 0451 Mexico, DF, Mexico Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    The development of successful coastal adaptation strategies for both the built and natural environments requires combining scenarios of climate change and socio-economic conditions, and risk assessment. Such planning needs to consider the adaptation costs and residual damages over time that may occur given a range of possible storm conditions for any given sea level rise scenario. Using the metric of the expected value of annual adaptation costs and residual damages, or another metric that can be related to the elevation of flooding, a simplified method to carry this out is presented. The approach relies upon developing damage-flooding depth probability exceedance curves for various scenarios over a given planning period and determining the areas under the curves. While the approach does have limitations, it is less complex to implement than using Monte Carlo simulation approaches and may be more intuitive to decision makers. A case study in Maine, USA is carried out to illustrate the method. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0379-z Authors Paul Kirshen, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire 03824, USA Samuel Merrill, US EPA Region 1 Environmental Finance Center at the Muskie School of Public Service, University of Southern Maine, Portland, ME 04104, USA Peter Slovinsky, Department of Conservation, Maine Geological Survey, 22 State House Station, Augusta, ME 04333, USA Norman Richardson, Battelle Memorial Institute, One Cranberrry Hill Road, Lexington, MA 02421, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    Interest in the impacts of climate change is ever increasing. This is particularly true of the water sector where understanding potential changes in the occurrence of both floods and droughts is important for strategic planning. Climate variability has been shown to have a significant impact on UK climate and accounting for this in future climate change projections is essential to fully anticipate potential future impacts. In this paper a new resampling methodology is developed which includes the variability of both baseline and future precipitation. The resampling methodology is applied to 13 CMIP3 climate models for the 2080s, resulting in an ensemble of monthly precipitation change factors. The change factors are applied to the Eden catchment in eastern Scotland with analysis undertaken for the sensitivity of future river flows to the changes in precipitation. Climate variability is shown to influence the magnitude and direction of change of both precipitation and in turn river flow, which are not apparent without the use of the resampling methodology. The transformation of precipitation changes to river flow changes display a degree of non-linearity due to the catchment’s role in buffering the response. The resampling methodology developed in this paper provides a new technique for creating climate change scenarios which incorporate the important issue of climate variability. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0386-0 Authors Ralph Ledbetter, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK Christel Prudhomme, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK Nigel Arnell, Walker Institute for Climate Systems Research, University of Reading, Reading, UK Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    Lop Nur in Xinjiang, Northwest China, is located in the lowest part of the Tarim Basin at an altitude of 780 m and experiences an extremely dry climate with an annual precipitation of only 17 mm and a high evaporation rate of 2,728 mm. The pollen and spores from the Late Miocene strata of a borehole in Lop Nur were analyzed with a view to interpreting the paleoenvironmental evolution of Lop Nur. Main types of pollen such as Chenopodiaceae, Nitraria , Ephedra and Artemisia reflect an arid climate. By collating the palynological data in this area as recorded in other literature and by applying the method of Coexistence Analysis, we have obtained the paleoclimatic parameters from Late Miocene to Holocene in Lop Nur. These suggest that temperatures increased from the Late Miocene (10.2°C) to the Pliocene (13.4°C), decreased from Pliocene to Pleistocene (4.7°C), and were more stable from Holocene (12.1°C) until now (11.5°C). The precipitation was stable (about 900 mm) from Late Miocene to Early Pleistocene, then decreased markedly (to about 300 mm) in Middle and Late Pleistocene, and reached its lowest value (17.4 mm) in the Holocene. The changes in paleoclimate at Lop Nur provide new evidence for understanding the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0347-7 Authors Hui Hao, State Key Laboratory of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100093 People’s Republic of China David K. Ferguson, Department of Paleontology, University of Vienna, Althanstraβe 14, 1090 Vienna, Austria Hong Chang, State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, 710075 People’s Republic of China Cheng-Sen Li, State Key Laboratory of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100093 People’s Republic of China Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are an important tool to compare the costs and benefits of different climate policies. Recently, attention has been given to the effect of different discounting methods and damage estimates on the results of IAMs. One aspect to which little attention has been paid is how the representation of the climate system may affect the estimated benefits of mitigation action. In that respect, we analyse several well-known IAMs, including the newest versions of FUND, DICE and PAGE. Given the role of IAMs in integrating information from different disciplines, they should ideally represent both best estimates and the ranges of anticipated climate system and carbon cycle behaviour (as e.g. synthesised in the IPCC Assessment reports). We show that in the longer term, beyond 2100, most IAM parameterisations of the carbon cycle imply lower CO 2 concentrations compared to a model that captures IPCC AR4 knowledge more closely, e.g. the carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC6. With regard to the climate component, some IAMs lead to much lower benefits of mitigation than MAGICC6. The most important reason for the underestimation of the benefits of mitigation is the failure in capturing climate dynamics correctly, which implies this could be a potential development area to focus on. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0363-7 Authors Andries F. Hof, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3729 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands Chris W. Hope, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1AG UK Jason Lowe, Met Office, Hadley Centre, Reading University, Reading, Berkshire RG6 6AH, UK Michael D. Mastrandrea, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Yang & Yamazaki Environment & Energy Building 4205, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305, USA Malte Meinshausen, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Telegrafenberg A31, 14412 Potsdam, Germany Detlef P. van Vuuren, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3729 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description: Seven misconceptions regarding the Gaia hypothesis Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-8 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0382-4 Authors David E. Moody, Laurel Springs School, Ojai, CA, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009