ALBERT

Beschreibung:    The sequence of extreme September sea ice extent minima over the past decade suggests acceleration in the response of the Arctic sea ice cover to external forcing, hastening the ongoing transition towards a seasonally open Arctic Ocean. This reflects several mutually supporting processes. Because of the extensive open water in recent Septembers, ice cover in the following spring is increasingly dominated by thin, first-year ice (ice formed during the previous autumn and winter) that is vulnerable to melting out in summer. Thinner ice in spring in turn fosters a stronger summer ice-albedo feedback through earlier formation of open water areas. A thin ice cover is also more vulnerable to strong summer retreat under anomalous atmospheric forcing. Finally, general warming of the Arctic has reduced the likelihood of cold years that could bring about temporary recovery of the ice cover. Events leading to the September ice extent minima of recent years exemplify these processes. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0101-1 Authors Julienne C. Stroeve, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder CO, USA Mark C. Serreze, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder CO, USA Marika M. Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Jennifer E. Kay, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA James Malanik, Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder CO, USA Andrew P. Barrett, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder CO, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    In this paper, change-points in time series of annual extremes in temperature and precipitation in the Zhujiang River Basin are analyzed with the CUSUM test. The data cover the period 1961–2007 for 192 meteorological stations. Annual indicators are analyzed: mean temperature, maximum temperature, warm days, total precipitation, 5-day maximum precipitation, and dry days. Significant change-points (1986/87, 1997/98, 1968/69, and 2003/04) are detected in the time series of most of the indicators. The change-point in 1986/87 is investigated in more detail. Most stations with this change-point in temperature indicators are located in the eastern and coastal areas of the basin. Stations with this change-point in dry days are located in the western area. The means and trends of the temperature indicators increase in the entire basin after 1986/87. The highest magnitudes can be found at the coast and delta. Decreasing (increasing) tendencies in total and 5-day maximum precipitation (dry days) are mostly observed in the western and central regions. The detected change-points can be explained by changes in the indices of the Western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon as well as by change-points in wind directions. In years when the indices simultaneously increase and decrease (indices taking reverse directions to negative and positive) higher annual temperatures and lower annual precipitation occur in the Zhujiang River Basin. The high station density and data quality are very useful for spatially assessing change-points of climatic extreme events. The relation of the change points to large-scale oscillation can provide valuable data for planning adaptation measures against climate risks, e.g. for flood control, disaster preparedness, and water resource management. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0123-8 Authors Thomas Fischer, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, 46, Zhongguancun Nandajie, Haidian, Beijing, 100 081 People’s Republic of China Marco Gemmer, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, 46, Zhongguancun Nandajie, Haidian, Beijing, 100 081 People’s Republic of China Lüliu Liu, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, 46, Zhongguancun Nandajie, Haidian, Beijing, 100 081 People’s Republic of China Buda Su, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, 46, Zhongguancun Nandajie, Haidian, Beijing, 100 081 People’s Republic of China Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    One of the major tasks of climate models is the description of precipitation characteristics. Many complex physical mechanisms are involved, and the corresponding parameterizations lead to more important differences among models for both present climate and climate change conditions than what is obtained for temperature analysis. Extreme precipitation events are more scarce, and therefore, differences are even larger. These processes are very relevant for impact studies, both when dealing with heavy precipitation events and also with drought conditions or dry spell description. But studies focused on dry spell analysis have received much less attention, compared with the ones related to large precipitation conditions. Present climate conditions already indicate important risks related to aridity over many areas of the world, and they are projected to be increased for future climate conditions. One good example of a region with these kind of risks is the Iberian Peninsula, where agricultural and socioeconomic impacts of water supply deficits are already a very relevant feature. The modeling results indicate that future climate will increase the mean and largest dry periods over most of the Iberian Peninsula, with a gradient of increase that is larger on the south and smaller on the north, therefore increasing the latitudinal contrast with respect to present climate. Regional features over certain basins and coasts are reproduced by the regional models, but not for the global climate model. Thus, future climate conditions point to a more severe hydrological stresses over several regions in the Iberian Peninsula. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0114-9 Authors Enrique Sánchez, Facultad de Ciencias del Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain Marta Domínguez, Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales (ICAM), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain Raquel Romera, Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales (ICAM), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain Noelia López de la Franca, Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales (ICAM), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain Miguel Angel Gaertner, Facultad de Ciencias del Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain Clemente Gallardo, Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales (ICAM), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain Manuel Castro, Facultad de Ciencias del Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    In this paper we argue that the financial provisions of the Copenhagen Accord, if used primarily to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions, could compensate the lack of more energetic action on the domestic mitigation side. In order to maximize the mitigation potential, the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund (CGCF) should be transformed into the International Bank for Emissions Allowance Acquisition (IBEAA) envisaged by Bradford ( 2008 ). We estimate that 50 percent of the CGCF in 2020 (50 US billions) could finance from 2.1 to 3.3 Gt CO2-eq emission reductions, depending on the domestic mitigation effort of Annex I and Non-Annex I countries. We construct a matrix that shows the level of GHGs emissions in 2020 under all possible combinations of abatement pledges and international mitigation financing, thus highlighting a rich set of options to reach the same level of GHGs emissions in 2020. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0125-6 Authors Carlo Carraro, University of Venice and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Dorsoduro 3246, 30123 Venezia, Italy Emanuele Massetti, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change, C.so Magenta 63, 20123 Milan, Italy Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    The availability of electric power is an important prerequisite for the development or maintenance of high living standards. Global change, including socio-economic change and climate change, is a challenge for those who have to deal with the long-term management of thermoelectric power plants. Power plants have lifetimes of several decades. Their water demand changes with climate parameters in the short and medium term. In the long term, the water demand will change as old units are retired and new generating units are built. The present paper analyses the effects of global change and options for adapting to water shortages for power plants in the German capital Berlin in the short and long term. The interconnection between power plants, i.e. water demand, and water resources management, i.e. water availability, is described. Using different models, scenarios of socio-economic and climate change are analysed. One finding is that by changing the cooling system of power plants from a once-through system to a closed-circuit cooling system the vulnerability of power plants can be reduced considerably. Such modified cooling systems also are much more robust with respect to the effects of climate change and declining streamflows due to human activities in the basin under study. Notwithstanding the possible adaptations analysed for power plants in Berlin, increased economic costs are expected due to declining streamflows and higher water temperatures. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0110-0 Authors Hagen Koch, Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, P.O. Box 101 344, 03013 Cottbus, Germany Stefan Vögele, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Institute of Energy Research - Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEF-STE), 52425 Jülich, Germany Michael Kaltofen, DHI-WASY GmbH, Branch Office Dresden, Comeniusstraße 109, 01309 Dresden, Germany Uwe Grünewald, Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, P.O. Box 101 344, 03013 Cottbus, Germany Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    The importance of ecological management for reducing the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change is increasingly recognized, yet frameworks to facilitate a structured approach to climate adaptation management are lacking. We developed a conceptual framework that can guide identification of climate change impacts and adaptive management options in a given region or biome. The framework focuses on potential points of early climate change impact, and organizes these along two main axes. First, it recognizes that climate change can act at a range of ecological scales. Secondly, it emphasizes that outcomes are dependent on two potentially interacting and countervailing forces: (1) changes to environmental parameters and ecological processes brought about by climate change, and (2) responses of component systems as determined by attributes of resistance and resilience. Through this structure, the framework draws together a broad range of ecological concepts, with a novel emphasis on attributes of resistance and resilience that can temper the response of species, ecosystems and landscapes to climate change. We applied the framework to the world’s largest remaining Mediterranean-climate woodland, the ‘Great Western Woodlands’ of south-western Australia. In this relatively intact region, maintaining inherent resistance and resilience by preventing anthropogenic degradation is of highest priority and lowest risk. Limited, higher risk options such as fire management, protection of refugia and translocation of adaptive genes may be justifiable under more extreme change, hence our capacity to predict the extent of change strongly impinges on such management decisions. These conclusions may contrast with similar analyses in degraded landscapes, where natural integrity is already compromised, and existing investment in restoration may facilitate experimentation with higher risk options. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0092-y Authors Suzanne M. Prober, CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Private Bag 5, PO Wembley, WA 6913, Australia Kevin R. Thiele, Department of Environment and Conservation, Science Division, LMB 104, Bentley Delivery Centre, Perth, WA 6983, Australia Philip W. Rundel, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Box 951405, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1405, USA Colin J. Yates, Department of Environment and Conservation, Science Division, LMB 104, Bentley Delivery Centre, Perth, WA 6983, Australia Sandra L. Berry, Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Acton, ACT 0200, Australia Margaret Byrne, Department of Environment and Conservation, Science Division, LMB 104, Bentley Delivery Centre, Perth, WA 6983, Australia Les Christidis, National Marine Science Centre, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, NSW 2450, Australia Carl R. Gosper, CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Private Bag 5, PO Wembley, WA 6913, Australia Pauline F. Grierson, School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia Kristina Lemson, Centre for Ecosystem Management, School of Natural Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup, WA 6027, Australia Tom Lyons, Centre of Excellence for Climate Change Woodland and Forest Health, School of Environmental Science, Murdoch University, South St, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia Craig Macfarlane, CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Private Bag 5, PO Wembley, WA 6913, Australia Michael H. O’Connor, CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Private Bag 5, PO Wembley, WA 6913, Australia John K. Scott, CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Private Bag 5, PO Wembley, WA 6913, Australia Rachel J. Standish, School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia William D. Stock, Centre for Ecosystem Management, School of Natural Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup, WA 6027, Australia Eddie J. B. van Etten, Centre for Ecosystem Management, School of Natural Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup, WA 6027, Australia Grant W. Wardell-Johnson, Curtin Institute for Biodiversity and Climate, Curtin University, GPO BoxU1987, Perth, WA 6845, Australia Alexander Watson, The Wilderness Society, City West Lotteries House, 2 Delhi Street, West Perth, WA 6005, Australia Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    On the island of Ameland (The Netherlands), natural gas has been extracted from a dune and salt marsh natural area since 1986. This has caused a soil subsidence of c. 1–25 cm, which can be used as a model to infer effects of future sea level rise. The aims of our study were (a) to relate the changes in the vegetation, and more specifically, in plant diversity, during the extraction period to soil subsidence and weather fluctuations, and (b) to use these relations to predict future changes due to the combination of ongoing soil subsidence and climate change. We characterised climate change as increases in mean sea level, storm frequency and net precipitation. Simultaneous observations were made of vegetation composition, elevation, soil chemistry, net precipitation, groundwater level, and flooding frequency over the period 1986–2001. By using multiple regression the changes in the vegetation could be decomposed into (1) an oscillatory component due to fluctuations in net precipitation, (2) an oscillatory component due to incidental flooding, (3) a monotonous component due to soil subsidence, and (4) a monotonous component not related to any measured variable but probably due to eutrophication. The changes were generally small during the observation period, but the regression model predicts large changes by the year 2100 that are almost exclusively due to sea level rise. However, although sea level rise is expected to cause a loss of species, this does not necessarily lead to a loss of conservancy value. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0118-5 Authors Han F. van Dobben, Alterra, Wageningen UR, POB 47, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands Pieter A. Slim, Alterra, Wageningen UR, POB 47, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    The durability of concrete is determined largely by its deterioration over time which is affected by the environment. Climate change may alter this environment, causing an acceleration of deterioration processes that will affect the safety and serviceability of concrete infrastructure in Australia, U.S., Europe, China and elsewhere. This investigation of concrete deterioration under changing climate in Australia uses Monte-Carlo simulation of results from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and considers high greenhouse gas emission scenarios representing the A1FI schemes of the IPCC. We present the implications of climate change for the durability of concrete structures, in terms of changes in probability of reinforcement corrosion initiation and corrosion induced damage at a given calendar year between 2000 and 2100 across Australia. Since the main driver to increased concrete deterioration is CO 2 concentration and temperature, then increases in damage risks observed in Australia are likely to be observed in other concrete infrastructure internationally. The impact of climate change on the deterioration cannot be ignored, but can be addressed by new approaches in design. Existing concrete structures, for which design has not considered the effects of changing climate may deteriorate more rapidly than originally planned. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0124-7 Authors Xiaoming Wang, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), P O Box 56, Graham Rd, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia Mark G. Stewart, Centre of Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, The University of Newcastle, Newcastle, New South Wales 2308, Australia Minh Nguyen, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), P O Box 56, Graham Rd, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung: Interdisciplinarity: are we there yet? Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-8 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0108-7 Authors Andy Reisinger, New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, Palmerston North, New Zealand Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    The last decade has witnessed an increase in the application of historical records (historical and documentary) in developing a more complete understanding of high-magnitude flood frequency; but little consideration has been given to the additional information that documentary accounts contain, particularly relating to flood seasonality. This paper examines the methods and approaches available in long-term flood seasonality analysis and applies them to the River Ouse (Yorkshire) in Northern England since AD 1600. A detailed historical flood record is available for the City of York consisting of annual maxima flood levels since AD 1877, with documentary accounts prior to this. A detailed analysis of long-term flood seasonality requires confidence in the accuracy and completeness of flood records; as a result the augmented flood series are analysed using three strategies: firstly, considering all recorded floods since AD 1600; secondly, through detailed analysis of the more complete record since AD 1800; and finally, applying a threshold to focus on high-magnitude flood events since AD 1800. The results identify later winter flooding, particularly in the second half of the twentieth century, with a notable reduction in summer flood events at York during the twentieth century compared to previous centuries. Flood generating mechanisms vary little between the periods considered, with a general pattern of stability in the ratio of floods incorporating a snowmelt component. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0117-6 Authors Neil Macdonald, Department of Geography, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 7ZT UK Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Much literature argues that natural selection has conserved mechanisms that spontaneously abort fetuses, particularly males, least likely to survive in prevailing environmental conditions including cold ambient temperature. These reports imply the hypothesis that males in gestation during relatively warm periods who confront relatively cold climates in early life live, on average, shorter lives than other males. We estimate the effect of warm-to-cold temperature shifts on the observed lifespan at age one of males born in Sweden from 1850 through 1915. We test this hypothesis using annual cohort lifespan at age 1 year for Swedish males from 1850 to 1915. For our independent variable, we score a series “1” for birth cohorts that experienced relatively warm temperatures in utero but relatively cold temperatures from age 1 through 4 years, and “0” for other cohorts. We use time-series methods, which adjust the data to remove autocorrelation, to estimate the association between these variables. Consistent with theory, males in gestation during relatively warm times who encounter relatively cold temperatures in early life have a shorter lifespan than other males. The association survives adjustment for the longevity of females as well as the main effect of temperatures during gestation and early life. Our findings imply that the increased frequency and amplitude of temperature shifts expected from climate change could influence which humans survive gestation and how long they live. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0119-4 Authors Ralph A. Catalano, School of Public Health, University of California, 50 University Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Tim A. Bruckner, Program in Public Health and Planning, Policy and Design, University of California, Irvine, CA 92617, USA Kirk R. Smith, School of Public Health, University of California, 50 University Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Katherine B. Saxton, School of Public Health, University of California, 50 University Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    In this study we analyzed climate and crop yields data from Indian cardamom hills for the period 1978–2007 to investigate whether there were significant changes in weather elements, and if such changes have had significant impact on the production of spices and plantation crops. Spatial and temporal variations in air temperatures (maximum and minimum), rainfall and relative humidity are evident across stations. The mean air temperature increased significantly during the last 30 years; the greatest increase and the largest significant upward trend was observed in the daily temperature. The highest increase in minimum temperature was registered for June (0.37°C/18 years) at the Myladumpara station. December and January showed greater warming across the stations. Rainfall during the main monsoon months (June–September) showed a downward trend. Relative humidity showed increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, at the cardamom and tea growing tracts. The warming trend coupled with frequent wet and dry spells during the summer is likely to have a favorable effect on insect pests and disease causing organisms thereby pesticide consumption can go up both during excess rainfall and drought years. The incidence of many minor pest insects and disease pathogens has increased in the recent years of our study along with warming. Significant and slight increases in the yield of small cardamom ( Elettaria cardamomum M.) and coffee ( Coffea arabica ), respectively, were noticed in the recent years.; however the improvement of yield in tea ( Thea sinensis ) and black pepper ( Piper nigrum L.) has not been seen in our analysis. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0115-8 Authors Muthusamy Murugan, School of Natural Sciences and Engineering, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science campus, Bangalore, 560 012 India Paddu Krishnappa Shetty, School of Natural Sciences and Engineering, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science campus, Bangalore, 560 012 India Raju Ravi, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012 India Aavudai Anandhi, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012 India Arulappan Joseph Rajkumar, Central Plantation Crops Research Institute, Kayangulam, 690533 India Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    This paper synthesizes the results from the model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models ReMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. A number of robust findings emerge. If the international community takes immediate action to mitigate climate change, the costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at 450 ppm (roughly 530–550 ppm-e) discounted at 3% are estimated to be 1.4% or lower of global consumption over the twenty-first century. Second best settings with either a delay in climate policy or restrictions to the deployment of low-carbon technologies can result in substantial increases of mitigation costs. A delay of global climate policy until 2030 would render the 450 ppm target unachievable. Renewables and CCS are found to be the most critical mitigation technologies, and all models project a rapid switch of investments away from freely emitting energy conversion technologies towards renewables, CCS and nuclear. Concerning end use sectors, the models consistently show an almost full scale decarbonization of the electricity sector by the middle of the twenty-first century, while the decarbonization of non-electric energy demand, in particular in the transport sector remains incomplete in all mitigation scenarios. The results suggest that assumptions about low-carbon alternatives for non-electric energy demand are of key importance for the costs and achievability of very low stabilization scenarios. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-29 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0105-x Authors Gunnar Luderer, Research Domain III: Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany Valentina Bosetti, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, CESifo and Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change, Milan, Italy Michael Jakob, Research Domain III: Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany Marian Leimbach, Research Domain III: Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany Jan C. Steckel, Research Domain III: Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany Henri Waisman, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environment et le Dévelopment, Paris, France Ottmar Edenhofer, Research Domain III: Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Accelerated sea level rise (SLR) in the twenty-first century will result in unprecedented coastal recession, threatening billions of dollars worth of coastal developments and infrastructure. Therefore, we cannot continue to depend on the highly uncertain coastal recession estimates obtained via the simple, deterministic method (Bruun rule) that has been widely used over the last 50 years. Furthermore, the emergence of risk management style coastal planning frameworks is now requiring probabilistic (rather than deterministic, single value) estimates of coastal recession. This paper describes the development and application of a process based model (PCR model) which provides probabilistic estimates of SLR driven coastal recession. The PCR model is proposed as a more appropriate and defensible method for determining coastal recession due to SLR for planning purposes in the twenty-first century and beyond. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0107-8 Authors Roshanka Ranasinghe, Department of Water Engineering, UNESCO-IHE, PO Box 3015 DA, Delft, Netherlands David Callaghan, School of Civil Engineering, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072 Australia Marcel J. F. Stive, Department of Civil Eng and Geoscience, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CN Delft, Netherlands Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Observations have shown that the Indian Ocean is consistently warming and its warm pool is expanding, particularly in the recent decades. This paper attempts to investigate the reason behind these observations. Under global warming scenario, it is expected that the greenhouse gas induced changes in air–sea fluxes will enhance the warming. Surprisingly, it is found that the net surface heat fluxes over Indian Ocean warm pool (IOWP) region alone cannot explain the consistent warming. The warm pool area anomaly of IOWP is strongly correlated with the sea surface height anomaly, suggesting an important role played by the ocean advection processes in warming and expansion of IOWP. The structure of lead/lag correlations further suggests that Oceanic Rossby waves might be involved in the warming. Using heat budget analysis of several Ocean data assimilation products, it is shown that the net surface heat flux (advection) alone tends to cool (warm) the Ocean. Based on above observations, we propose an ocean-atmosphere coupled positive feedback mechanism for explaining the consistent warming and expansion of IOWP. Warming over IOWP induces an enhancement of convection in central equatorial Indian ocean, which causes anomalous easterlies along the equator. Anomalous easterlies in turn excite frequent Indian ocean Dipole events and cause anti-cyclonic wind stress curl in south-east and north-east equatorial Indian ocean. The anomalous wind stress curl triggers anomalous downwelling oceanic Rossby waves, thereby deepening the thermocline and resulting in advection of warm waters towards western Indian ocean. This acts as a positive feedback and results in more warming and westward expansion of IOWP. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0121-x Authors Suryachandra A. Rao, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, India Ashish R. Dhakate, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, India Subodh K. Saha, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, India Somnath Mahapatra, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, India Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, India Samir Pokhrel, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, India Sobhan K. Sahu, Pukyong National University, Busan, South Korea Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Given the severe impacts of extreme heat on natural and human systems, we attempt to quantify the likelihood that rising greenhouse gas concentrations will result in a new, permanent heat regime in which the coolest warm-season of the 21st century is hotter than the hottest warm-season of the late 20th century. Our analyses of global climate model experiments and observational data reveal that many areas of the globe are likely to permanently move into such a climate space over the next four decades, should greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase. In contrast to the common perception that high-latitude areas face the most accelerated response to global warming, our results demonstrate that in fact tropical areas exhibit the most immediate and robust emergence of unprecedented heat, with many tropical areas exhibiting a 50% likelihood of permanently moving into a novel seasonal heat regime in the next two decades. We also find that global climate models are able to capture the observed intensification of seasonal hot conditions, increasing confidence in the projection of imminent, permanent emergence of unprecedented heat. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0112-y Authors Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305-4216, USA Martin Scherer, Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305-4216, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Development of long tree-ring records is an important task in paleoclimate studies. Here we presented a five-century long reconstruction of summer (June to August) temperature based on a tree ring-width chronology of Picea brachytyla var. complanata originating from the Hengduan Mountains of China. Climate-growth response analysis showed that summer temperature was the main climatic factor limiting tree-ring growth in the study area. The reconstructed summer temperature accounted for 47.6% of the variance in actual temperature during their common period A.D. 1958–2002. Analysis of the temperature reconstruction showed that major warm periods occurred in the A.D. 1710s–1750s, 1850s, 1920s–1950s and 1990s to present, whereas cold intervals occurred in the A.D. 1630s–1680s, 1790s–1800s, 1860s–1880s and 1950s–1980s, respectively. The low-frequency variation of the reconstruction agreed fairly well with tree-ring reconstructed temperature from nearby regions and with records of glacier fluctuations in the surrounding high mountains, suggesting that our reconstructed summer temperature was reliable, and could aid in the evaluation of regional climate variability. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0111-z Authors Zong-Shan Li, Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100093 China Qi-Bin Zhang, Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100093 China Keping Ma, Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100093 China Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Given predictions of increased intensity and frequency of heat waves, it is important to study the effect of high temperatures on human mortality and morbidity. Many studies focus on heat wave-related mortality; however, heat-related morbidity is often overlooked. The goals of this study are to examine the historical observed relationship between temperature and morbidity (illness), and explore the extent to which observed historical relationships could be used to generate future projections of morbidity under climate change. We collected meteorological, air pollution, and hospital admissions data in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for the years 1989–2005, and employed a generalized additive model (GAM) to quantify the relationship between morbidity (as measured by hospital admissions) and high temperatures with adjustment for the effects of potential confounders. We also estimated temperature threshold values for different causes of hospital admissions and then quantified the associated percent increase of admissions per degree above the threshold. Finally, the future impact of higher temperatures on admissions for the years 2059–2075 was examined. Our results show that five causes of admission (endocrine, genitourinary, renal, accidental, and self-harm) and three age groups (15–64, 75–84, 〉85 years) were affected by high temperatures. Future projections indicate a larger number of days above the current temperature threshold leading to an increase in admissions. Our results indicate that climate change may increase heat-related hospital admissions in the US urban mid-West and that health systems should include heat wave planning. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0120-y Authors Bo Li, Department of Statistics, Purdue University, 150 N. University Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2067, USA Steve Sain, Institute of Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA Linda O. Mearns, Institute of Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA Henry A. Anderson, Wisconsin Division of Public Health, PO Box 2659, Madison, WI 53701, USA Sari Kovats, Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH UK Kristie L. Ebi, IPCC Working Group II, Technical Support Unit, Carnegie Institution for Science, 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305, USA Marni Y. V. Bekkedal, Wisconsin Division of Public Health, PO Box 2659, Madison, WI 53701, USA Marty S. Kanarek, Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin (at Madison), 1710 University Avenue, Madison, WI 53726, USA Jonathan A. Patz, Nelson Institute, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin (at Madison), 1710 University Avenue, Madison, WI 53726, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    This paper presents a review of the methodology applied for generating the regional climate change scenarios utilized in important National Documents of Mexico, such as the Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Fourth National Report to the Convention on Biological Diversity and The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico. It is shown that these regional climate change scenarios, which are one of the main inputs to support the assessments presented in these documents, are an example of the erroneous use of statistical downscaling techniques. The arguments presented here imply that the work based on such scenarios should be revised and therefore, these documents are inadequate for supporting national decision- making. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0100-2 Authors Francisco Estrada, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico, D.F. 04510, Mexico Benjamín Martínez-López, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico, D.F. 04510, Mexico Cecilia Conde, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico, D.F. 04510, Mexico Carlos Gay-García, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico, D.F. 04510, Mexico Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Climate change impacts food production systems, particularly in locations with large, vulnerable populations. Elevated greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as land cover/land use change (LCLUC), can influence regional climate dynamics. Biophysical factors such as topography, soil type, and seasonal rainfall can strongly affect crop yields. We used a regional climate model derived from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to compare the effects of projected future GHG and future LCLUC on spatial variability of crop yields in East Africa. Crop yields were estimated with a process-based simulation model. The results suggest that: (1) GHG-influenced and LCLUC-influenced yield changes are highly heterogeneous across this region; (2) LCLUC effects are significant drivers of yield change; and (3) high spatial variability in yield is indicated for several key agricultural sub-regions of East Africa. Food production risk when considered at the household scale is largely dependent on the occurrence of extremes, so mean yield in some cases may be an incomplete predictor of risk. The broad range of projected crop yields reflects enormous variability in key parameters that underlie regional food security; hence, donor institutions’ strategies and investments might benefit from considering the spatial distribution around mean impacts for a given region. Ultimately, global assessments of food security risk would benefit from including regional and local assessments of climate impacts on food production. This may be less of a consideration in other regions. This study supports the concept that LCLUC is a first-order factor in assessing food production risk. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0116-7 Authors Nathan Moore, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China Gopal Alagarswamy, CGCEO, Michigan State University, 202 Manly Miles Bldg, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA Bryan Pijanowski, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, 195 Marsteller St, FORS203, West Lafayette, IN 47906, USA Philip Thornton, International Livestock Research Institute, PO Box 30709, Nairobi, 00100 Kenya Brent Lofgren, Great Lakes Env. Research Lab, 4840 S. State Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48108-9719, USA Jennifer Olson, Communication Arts and Sciences, Michigan State University, 202 Manly Miles Bldg, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA Jeffrey Andresen, CGCEO, Michigan State University, 202 Manly Miles Bldg, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA Pius Yanda, Institute of Resources Assessment, University of Dar Es Salaam, PO Box 35097, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania Jiaguo Qi, CGCEO, Michigan State University, 202 Manly Miles Bldg, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-34 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0126-5 Authors Anders Levermann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany Jonathan L. Bamber, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK Sybren Drijfhout, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The Netherlands Andrey Ganopolski, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany Winfried Haeberli, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Neil R. P. Harris, European Ozone Research Coordinating Unit, Department of Chemistry, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK Matthias Huss, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland Kirstin Krüger, Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences, Kiel, Germany Timothy M. Lenton, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK Ronald W. Lindsay, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA Dirk Notz, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Peter Wadhams, Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK Susanne Weber, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The Netherlands Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Water resource management in South Florida faces nearly intractable problems, in part due to weather and climate variability. Rising sea level and coastal storm surge are two phenomena with significant impacts on natural systems, fresh water supplies and flood drainage capability. However, decision support information regarding management of water resources in response to storm surge is not well developed. In an effort to address this need we analyze long term tidal records from Key West, Pensacola and Mayport Florida to extract surge distributions, to which we apply a nonlinear eustatic sea level rise model to project storm surge return levels and periods. Examination of climate connections reveals a statistically significant dependence between surge distributions and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Based on a recent probabilistic model for AMO phase changes, we develop AMO-dependent surge distributions. These AMO-dependent surge projections are used to examine the flood control response of a coastal water management structure as an example of how climate dependent water resource forcings can be used in the formulation of decision support tools. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0079-8 Authors Joseph Park, Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling, South Florida Water Management District, 3301 Gun Club Rd., West Palm Beach, FL, USA Jayantha Obeysekera, Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling, South Florida Water Management District, 3301 Gun Club Rd., West Palm Beach, FL, USA Michelle Irizarry, Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling, South Florida Water Management District, 3301 Gun Club Rd., West Palm Beach, FL, USA Jenifer Barnes, Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling, South Florida Water Management District, 3301 Gun Club Rd., West Palm Beach, FL, USA Paul Trimble, Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling, South Florida Water Management District, 3301 Gun Club Rd., West Palm Beach, FL, USA Winifred Park-Said, Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling, South Florida Water Management District, 3301 Gun Club Rd., West Palm Beach, FL, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    In the fall of 2009 the City of Satellite Beach (City), Florida, authorized a study designed to assess municipal vulnerability to rising sea level and facilitate discussion of potential adaptation strategies. The project is one of the first in Florida to seriously address the potential consequences of global sea level rise, now forecast to rise a meter or more by the year 2100. Results suggest the tipping point between relatively benign impacts and those that disrupt important elements of the municipal landscape is + 2 ft (0.6 m) above present. Seasonal flooding to an elevation of + 2 ft is forecast to begin around 2050 and thus the City has about 40 years to formulate and implement an adaptation plan. As an initial step, the Comprehensive Planning Advisory Board, a volunteer citizen committee serving as the City’s local planning authority, has recommended a series of updates and revisions to the City’s Comprehensive Plan. If approved by the City Council and Florida’s Department of Community Affairs, the amendments will provide a legal basis for implementing specific policies designed to reduce the City’s vulnerability to sea level rise. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0086-9 Authors Randall W. Parkinson, RWParkinson Consulting Inc., 2018 Melbourne Court, Suite 205, Melbourne, FL 32901, USA Tara McCue, East Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 309 Cranes Roost Blvd., Suite 2000, Altamonte Springs, FL 32701, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    The sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico during recent geologic time has closely followed global eustatic sea level change. Regional effects due to tectonics and glacio-isostasy have been minimal. Over the past several million years the northern Gulf coast, like most stable coastal regions of the globe, has experienced major swings of sea level below and above present level, accompanied by major shifts in shoreline position. During advances of the northern hemisphere ice sheets, sea level dropped by more than 100 m, extending the shoreline in places more than 100 km onto the shelf. For much of the period since the last glacial maximum (LGM), 20,000 years ago, the region has seen rates of sea level rise far in excess of those experienced during the period represented by long-term tide gauges. The regional tide gauge record reveals that sea level has been rising at about 2 mm/year for the past century, while the average rate of rise since the LGM has been 6 mm/year, with some periods of abrupt rise exceeding 40 mm/year. During times of abrupt rise, Gulf of Mexico shorelines were drowned in place and overstepped. The relative stability of modern coastal systems is due primarily to stabilization of sea level approximately 6,000 years ago, resulting in the slow rates of rise experienced during historic time. Recent model projections of sea level rise over the next century and beyond may move northern Gulf coastal environments into a new equilibrium regime, more similar to that experienced during the deglaciation than that which has existed during historic time. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0077-x Authors Joseph F. Donoghue, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    We investigate the effects of Hurricane Wilma’s storm surge (23–24 October 2005) on the dominant tree Pinus elliottii var densa (South Florida slash pine) and rare plant species in subtropical pine rocklands of the Lower Florida Keys. We examine the role of elevation on species abundance in 1995 (Hurricane Betsy in 1965), 2005 (Hurricane Georges in 1998), and 2008 (Hurricane Wilma in 2005) to investigate if hurricanes influence abundance by eliminating plants at lower elevation on Big Pine Key, the largest island in the Lower Florida Keys. We compare densities before and after Hurricane Wilma over the 2005–2008 sampling period and examine the role of elevation on changes in pine and rare species densities three years after Hurricane Wilma. We use elevation to assess the impact of hurricanes because elevation determined whether a location was influenced by storm surge (maximum surge of 2 m) in the Lower Florida Keys, where pine rocklands occur at a maximum elevation of 3 m. In 1995 (30 years after a major storm), elevation did not explain the abundance of South Florida slash pine or Chamaecrista lineata , but explained significant variation in abundance of Chamaesyce deltoidea . The latter two species are rare herbaceous plants restricted to pine rocklands. In 2008, 3 years after Hurricane Wilma, the positive relationship between elevation and abundance was strongest for South Florida slash pine, C. deltoidea , and C. lineata . Effects of Hurricane Wilma were not significant for rare species with wider distribution, occurring in plant communities adjacent to pine rocklands and in disturbed rocklands. Our results suggest that hurricanes drive population dynamics of South Florida slash pine and rare species that occur exclusively in pine rocklands at higher elevations. Rare species restricted to pine rocklands showed dramatic declines after Hurricane Wilma and were eliminated at elevations 〈0.5 m. Widely distributed rare species did not show significant changes in density after Hurricane Wilma. Abundance increased with elevation for South Florida slash pine and C. lineata after the hurricane. In an environment influenced by sea level rise, concrete plans to conserve pine ecosystems are warranted. Results from this study will help define conservation strategies by strengthening predictive understanding of plant responses to disturbance in the backdrop of sea level rise. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0081-1 Authors Sonali Saha, The Institute for Regional Conservation, 22601 SW 152nd Ave., Miami, FL 33170, USA Keith Bradley, The Institute for Regional Conservation, 22601 SW 152nd Ave., Miami, FL 33170, USA Michael S. Ross, Department of Earth & Environment and Southeast Environmental Research Center, Florida International University, University Park/OE148, 11200 SW 8th St, Miami, FL 33199, USA Phillip Hughes, U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, 28950 Watson Blvd., Big Pine Key, FL 33043, USA Thomas Wilmers, U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, 28950 Watson Blvd., Big Pine Key, FL 33043, USA Pablo L. Ruiz, Southeast Environmental Research Center, Florida International University, 11200 SW 8th St, OE-148, Miami, FL 33199, USA Chris Bergh, The Nature Conservancy, 55 N. Johnson Road, Big Pine Key, FL 33043, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    The State of Florida (USA) is especially threatened by sea level rise due to extensive low elevation coastal habitats (approximately 8,000 km 2  〈 1 m above sea level) where the majority of the human population resides. We used the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) simulation to improve understanding of the magnitude and location of these changes for 58,000 ha of the Waccasassa Bay region of Florida’s central Gulf of Mexico coast. To assess how well SLAMM portrays changes in coastal wetland systems resulting from sea level rise, we conducted a hindcast in which we compared model results to 30 years of field plot data. Overall, the model showed the same pattern of coastal forest loss as observed. Prospective runs of SLAMM using 0.64 m, 1 m and 2 m sea level rise scenarios predict substantial changes over this century in the area covered by coastal wetland systems including net losses of coastal forests (69%, 83%, and 99%, respectively) and inland forests (33%, 50%, and 88%), but net gains of tidal flats (17%, 142%, and 3,837%). One implication of these findings at the site level is that undeveloped, unprotected lands inland from the coastal forest should be protected to accommodate upslope migration of this natural community in response to rising seas. At a broader scale, our results suggest that coastal wetland systems will be unevenly affected across the Gulf of Mexico as sea level rises. Species vulnerable to these anticipated changes will experience a net loss or even elimination. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0084-y Authors Laura Geselbracht, The Nature Conservancy, Florida Chapter, 222 S. Westmonte Drive Suite 300, Altamonte Springs, FL 32714-4269, USA Kathleen Freeman, The Nature Conservancy, Florida Chapter, 222 S. Westmonte Drive Suite 300, Altamonte Springs, FL 32714-4269, USA Eugene Kelly, The Nature Conservancy, Florida Chapter, 222 S. Westmonte Drive Suite 300, Altamonte Springs, FL 32714-4269, USA Doria R. Gordon, The Nature Conservancy, Florida Chapter, 222 S. Westmonte Drive Suite 300, Altamonte Springs, FL 32714-4269, USA Francis E. Putz, Department of Biology, University of Florida, PO BOX 118526, Gainesville, FL 32611-8526, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Developing appropriate management options for adapting to climate change is a new challenge for land managers, and integration of climate change concepts into operational management and planning on United States national forests is just starting. We established science–management partnerships on the Olympic National Forest (Washington) and Tahoe National Forest (California) in the first effort to develop adaptation options for specific national forests. We employed a focus group process in order to establish the scientific context necessary for understanding climate change and its anticipated effects, and to develop specific options for adapting to a warmer climate. Climate change scientists provided the scientific knowledge base on which adaptations could be based, and resource managers developed adaptation options based on their understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and management. General adaptation strategies developed by national forest managers include: (1) reduce vulnerability to anticipated climate-induced stress by increasing resilience at large spatial scales, (2) consider tradeoffs and conflicts that may affect adaptation success, (3) manage for realistic outcomes and prioritize treatments that facilitate adaptation to a warmer climate, (4) manage dynamically and experimentally, and (5) manage for structure and composition. Specific adaptation options include: (1) increase landscape diversity, (2) maintain biological diversity, (3) implement early detection/rapid response for exotic species and undesirable resource conditions, (4) treat large-scale disturbance as a management opportunity and integrate it in planning, (5) implement treatments that confer resilience at large spatial scales, (6) match engineering of infrastructure to expected future conditions, (7) promote education and awareness about climate change among resource staff and local publics, and (8) collaborate with a variety of partners on adaptation strategies and to promote ecoregional management. The process described here can quickly elicit a large amount of information relevant for adaptation to climate change, and can be emulated for other national forests, groups of national forests with similar resources, and other public lands. As adaptation options are iteratively generated for additional administrative units on public lands, management options can be compared, tested, and integrated into adaptive management. Science-based adaptation is imperative because increasing certainty about climate impacts and management outcomes may take decades. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-28 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0066-0 Authors Jeremy S. Littell, JISAO CSES Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Box 355672, Seattle, WA 98195, USA David L. Peterson, U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 400. N. 34th St., Suite 201, Seattle, WA 98103, USA Constance I. Millar, U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, 800 Buchanan Street, Albany, CA 94710, USA Kathy A. O’Halloran, U.S. Forest Service, Olympic National Forest, 1835 Black Lake Blvd. SW, Olympia, WA 98512, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Coastal ecosystems lie at the forefront of sea level rise. We posit that before the onset of actual inundation, sea level rise will influence the species composition of coastal hardwood hammocks and buttonwood ( Conocarpus erectus L.) forests of the Everglades National Park based on tolerance to drought and salinity. Precipitation is the major water source in coastal hammocks and is stored in the soil vadose zone, but vadose water will diminish with the rising water table as a consequence of sea level rise, thereby subjecting plants to salt water stress. A model is used to demonstrate that the constraining effect of salinity on transpiration limits the distribution of freshwater-dependent communities. Field data collected in hardwood hammocks and coastal buttonwood forests over 11 years show that halophytes have replaced glycophytes. We establish that sea level rise threatens 21 rare coastal species in Everglades National Park and estimate the relative risk to each species using basic life history and population traits. We review salinity conditions in the estuarine region over 1999–2009 and associate wide variability in the extent of the annual seawater intrusion to variation in freshwater inflows and precipitation. We also examine species composition in coastal and inland hammocks in connection with distance from the coast, depth to water table, and groundwater salinity. Though this study focuses on coastal forests and rare species of South Florida, it has implications for coastal forests threatened by saltwater intrusion across the globe. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-28 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0082-0 Authors Amartya K. Saha, Southeast Environmental Research Center, Florida International University, 11200 SW 8th Street, Miami, FL 33199, USA Sonali Saha, The Institute for Regional Conservation, 22601 SW 152nd Ave., Miami, FL 33170, USA Jimi Sadle, Everglades National Park, 40001 State Rd. 9336, Homestead, FL 33034-6733, USA Jiang Jiang, Dept. of Biology, University of Miami, 1301 Memorial Drive, Coral Gables, FL 33124, USA Michael S. Ross, Southeast Environmental Research Center and Dept. of Earth and Environment, Florida International University, OE 148, Miami, FL 33199, USA René M. Price, Southeast Environmental Research Center and Dept. of Earth and Environment, Florida International University, OE 148, Miami, FL 33199, USA Leonel S. L. O. Sternberg, Dept. of Biology, University of Miami, 1301 Memorial Drive, Coral Gables, FL 33124, USA Kristie S. Wendelberger, Curriculum for the Environment and Ecology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, 207 Coates Building CB# 3275, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3275, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Low-elevation islands face threats from sea level rise (SLR) and increased storm intensity. Evidence of endangered species’ population declines and shifts in vegetation communities are already underway in the Florida Keys. SLR predictions indicate large areas of these habitats may be eliminated in the next century. Using the Florida Keys as a model system, we present a process for evaluating conservation options for rare and endemic taxa. Considering species characteristics and habitat, we assess central issues that influence conservation options. We contrast traditional and controversial options for two animal and two plant species giving special emphasis to perceptions of ecological risk and safety from SLR and suggest courses of action. Multiple strategies will be required to spread extinction risk and will be effective for different time periods. Global climate change presents an uncertain, perhaps no-analog future that will challenge land managers and practitioners to re-evaluate equilibrium-state-conceived laws and policies not only for these taxa, but for many facing similar threats. To embrace conservation in a changing world will require a new dialogue that includes controversial ideas, a review of existing laws and policies, and preparation for the oncoming change. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0083-z Authors Joyce Maschinski, Fairchild Tropical Botanic Garden, Center for Tropical Plant Conservation, 11935 Old Cutler Rd., Coral Gables, FL 33156-4242, USA Michael S. Ross, Department of Earth and Environment, Florida International University, 11200 SW 8th Street, Miami, FL 33199, USA Hong Liu, Fairchild Tropical Botanic Garden, Center for Tropical Plant Conservation, 11935 Old Cutler Rd., Coral Gables, FL 33156-4242, USA Joe O’Brien, USDA Forest Service, Center for Forest Disturbance Science, 320 Green St., Athens, GA 30602, USA Eric J. von Wettberg, Fairchild Tropical Botanic Garden, Center for Tropical Plant Conservation, 11935 Old Cutler Rd., Coral Gables, FL 33156-4242, USA Kristin E. Haskins, Research Department, The Arboretum at Flagstaff, 4001 S Woody Mountain Rd., Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0093-x Authors Alberto Troccoli, Pye Laboratory, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), GPO Box 3023, Clunies Ross Street, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia Filippo Zambon, Environmental Systems Science Centre (ESSC), University of Reading, Reading, RG2 9AX UK Kevin I. Hodges, Environmental Systems Science Centre (ESSC), University of Reading, Reading, RG2 9AX UK Marco Marani, Dept. IMAGE and International Center for Hydrology, University of Padova, via Loredan 20, 35131 Padova, Italy Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Ever since H. E. Hurst brought the concept of long memory time series to prominence in his study of river flows the origins of the so-called Hurst phenomena have remained elusive. Two sets of competing models have been proposed. The fractional Gaussian noises and their discrete time counter-part, the fractionally integrated processes, possess genuine long memory in the sense that the present state of a system has a temporal dependence on all past states. The alternative to these genuine long memory models are models which are non-stationary in the mean but for physical reasons are constrained to lie in a bounded range, hence on visual inspection appear to be stationary. In these models the long memory is merely an artifact of the method of analysis. There are now a growing number of millenial scale temperature reconstructions available. In this paper we present a new way of looking at long memory in these reconstructions and proxies, which gives support to them being described by the non-stationary models. The implications for climatic change are that the temperature time series are not mean reverting. There is no evidence to support the idea that the observed rise in global temperatures are a natural fluctuation which will reverse in the near future. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0068-y Authors William Rea, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, 8140 New Zealand Marco Reale, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, 8140 New Zealand Jennifer Brown, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, 8140 New Zealand Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung: Erratum to: Guest editorial on coastal adaptation Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-1 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0019-7 Authors So-Min Cheong, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    A range of alternatives to the Global Warming Potential (GWP) have been suggested in the scientific literature. One of the alternative metrics that has received attention is the cost-effective relative valuation of greenhouse gases, recently denoted Global Cost Potential (GCP). However, this metric is based on complex optimising integrated assessment models that are far from transparent to the general scientist or policymaker. Here we present a new analytic metric, the Cost-Effective Temperature Potential (CETP) which is based on an approximation of the GCP. This new metric is constructed in order to enhance general understanding of the GCP and elucidate the links between physical metrics and metrics that take economics into account. We show that this metric has got similarities with the purely physical metric, Global Temperature change Potential (GTP). However, in contrast with the GTP, the CETP takes the long-term temperature response into account. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0072-2 Authors Daniel J. A. Johansson, Division of Physical Resource Theory, Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Wildfires are an integral part of Mediterranean ecosystems; humans impact on landscapes imply changes in fuel amount and continuity, and thus in fire regime. We tested the hypothesis that fire regime changed in western Mediterranean Basin during the last century using time series techniques. We first compiled a 130-year fire history for the Valencia province (Spain, Eastern Iberian Peninsula, Western Mediterranean Basin) from contemporary statistics plus old forest administration dossiers and newspapers. We also compiled census on rural population and climatic data for the same period in order to evaluate the role of climate and human-driven fuel changes on the fire regime change. The result suggested that there was a major fire regime shift around the early 1970s in such a way that fires increased in annual frequency (doubled) and area burned (by about an order of magnitude). The main driver of this shift was the increase in fuel amount and continuity due to rural depopulation (vegetation and fuel build-up after farm abandonment) suggesting that fires were fuel-limited during the pre-1970s period. Climatic conditions were poorly related to pre-1970s fires and strongly related to post-1970s fires, suggesting that fire are currently less fuel limited and more drought-driven than before the 1970s. Thus, the fire regime shift implies also a shift in the main driver for fire activity, and this has consequences in the global change agenda. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0060-6 Authors Juli G. Pausas, CIDE, CSIC, Apartado Oficial, 26270 Albal, Valencia, Spain Santiago Fernández-Muñoz, Departamento de Humanidades Historia, Geografía y Arte, Universidad Carlos III, Av. Universidad 22, Colmenarejo, 28250 Spain Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    This paper explores concepts of carbon lock-in arising from the technologies of CO 2 capture and storage (CCS). We examine the argument that CCS reduces carbon lock-in and the calls for a CCS ‘mandate’ and emission performance standards. We analyse the pros- and cons- of a low-carbon fossil fuel lock-in, arguing that lock-in per se is not the problem; it is rather the depth of lock-in which creates problems because deeper lock-in reduces flexibility and increases the ‘error cost’ (i.e. the cost of a decision which turns out to be based on incorrect understanding) and should be avoided. A set of technical and institutional indicators for measuring the flexibility of different technologies is then presented and applied to three technologies: a landfill gas power generator, a conventional nuclear power plant and a CCS plant under development in California. We conclude that these indicators are a useful way forward in assessing individual projects and that public authorities and other stakeholders might wish to employ some version of these indicators in their deliberations on the role of CCS. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0071-3 Authors Simon Shackley, Scottish Centre for Carbon Capture and Storage (SCCS), School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JW Scotland, UK Michael Thompson, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    This study investigates the connections between climate fluctuations and sardine and anchovy production in the NW Mediterranean, taking the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) as an indicator of climate variability. The basic working hypothesis is that sardine and anchovy productivity is influenced by the WeMOi, a proxy for the local environmental conditions such as sea surface temperature (SST) and river runoff. Sardine and anchovy landings (1974–2009) in the Catalan Coast and landings per unit of effort (LPUE) were used as proxy for recruitment. The results demonstrated a clear link between climate fluctuations and sardine and anchovy production. Positive WeMOi values were significantly correlated with low SST, high river runoff and high LPUE, that is, with better-than-average recruitment of sardine and anchovy. Conversely, negative WeMOi values were associated with high SST, low river runoff and low LPUE. During the negative WeMOi phases (such as that at the end of the analyzed period), environmental conditions are unfavourable for the overall biological productivity in the NW Mediterranean and would decrease the survival, growth, condition and reproduction of sardine and anchovy during their life cycle. Despite the evidences on the appropriateness of the NAOi as an indicator of the climate in Europe and its impact on some biological variables, we suggest that using a regional index, such as the WeMOi, can provide a more accurate representation of the environmental conditions affecting small pelagic fish production in the NW Mediterranean. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0091-z Authors Paloma Martín, Institut de Ciències del Mar, CSIC, P. Marítim 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain Ana Sabatés, Institut de Ciències del Mar, CSIC, P. Marítim 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain Josep Lloret, Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, University of Girona, 17071 Girona, Spain Javier Martin-Vide, Group of Climatology, University of Barcelona, Montalegre 6, 08001 Barcelona, Spain Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Cereal crop harvests reflect the weather patterns of the period immediately preceding them, and thus the dates at which they begin may be used as a source of proxy data on regional climate. Using systematic phenological observations in the Czech Lands (now known as the Czech Republic) after 1845, together with exploration of further surviving documentary evidence (chronicles, diaries, financial accounts etc.), it has proved possible to create series of winter wheat harvest dates for the period 1501–2008. Employing linear regression, the harvesting dates of the main cereal species (wheat, rye, barley, oats) were first converted to winter wheat harvest days and then normalised to the same altitude above sea level. The next step consisted of using series of winter wheat harvest dates to reconstruct mean March–June temperatures in the Czech Republic, applying standard palaeoclimatological methods. Series reconstructed by linear regression explain 70% of temperature variability. A profound cold period corresponding with late winter wheat harvests was noted between 1659 and 1705. In contrast, warm periods (i.e. early winter wheat harvests) were found for the periods of 1517–1542, 1788–1834 and 1946–2008. The period after 1951 is the warmest of all throughout the entire 1501–2008 period. Comparisons with other European temperature reconstructions derived from documentary sources (including grape harvest dates), tree-rings and instrumental data reveal generally close agreement, with significant correlations. Lower correlations around A.D. 1650 and 1750 may be partly related to deterioration of socio-economic conditions in the Czech Lands resulting from prolonged wars. The results obtained demonstrate that it is possible to use widely-available cereal harvest data for climate analysis and also that such data constitute an independent proxy data series for the region of Central Europe crucial to further studies of the potential impact of climatic variability and climate change on agriculture. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0075-z Authors Martin Možný, Doksany Observatory, Climatology Section, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, 411 82 Doksany, Czech Republic Rudolf Brázdil, Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, 611 37 Brno, Czech Republic Petr Dobrovolný, Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, 611 37 Brno, Czech Republic Mirek Trnka, Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Public policy supports biofuels for their benefits to agricultural economies, energy security and the environment. The environmental rationale is premised on greenhouse gas (GHG, “carbon”) emissions reduction, which is a matter of contention. This issue is challenging to resolve because of critical but difficult-to-verify assumptions in lifecycle analysis (LCA), limits of available data and disputes about system boundaries. Although LCA has been the presumptive basis of climate policy for fuels, careful consideration indicates that it is inappropriate for defining regulations. This paper proposes a method using annual basis carbon (ABC) accounting to track the stocks and flows of carbon and other relevant GHGs throughout fuel supply chains. Such an approach makes fuel and feedstock production facilities the focus of accounting while treating the CO 2 emissions from fuel end-use at face value regardless of the origin of the fuel carbon (bio- or fossil). Integrated into cap-and-trade policy and including provisions for mitigating indirect land-use change impacts, also evaluated on an annual basis, an ABC approach would provide a sound carbon management framework for the transportation fuels sector. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0164-z Authors John M. DeCicco, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    There are three key drivers of the biodiversity crisis: (1) the well known existing threats to biodiversity such as habitat loss, invasive pest species and resource exploitation; (2) direct effects of climate-change, such as on coastal and high elevation communities and coral reefs; and (3) the interaction between existing threats and climate-change. The third driver is set to accelerate the biodiversity crisis beyond the impacts of the first and second drivers in isolation. In this review we assess these interactions, and suggest the policy and management responses that are needed to minimise their impacts. Renewed management and policy action that address known threats to biodiversity could substantially diminish the impacts of future climate-change. An appropriate response to climate-change will include a reduction of land clearing, increased habitat restoration using indigenous species, a reduction in the number of exotic species transported between continents or between major regions of endemism, and a reduction in the unsustainable use of natural resources. Achieving these measures requires substantial reform of international, national and regional policy, and the development of new or more effective alliances between scientists, government agencies, non-government organisations and land managers. Furthermore, new management practices and policy are needed that consider shifts in the geographic range of species, and that are responsive to new information acquired from improved research and monitoring programs. The interactions of climate-change with existing threats to biodiversity have the potential to drive many species to extinction, but there is much that can be done now to reduce this risk. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-25 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0170-1 Authors Don A. Driscoll, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia Adam Felton, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia Philip Gibbons, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia Annika M. Felton, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia Nicola T. Munro, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia David B. Lindenmayer, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Past heavy precipitation events in the Chicago metropolitan area have caused significant flood-related economic and environmental damages. A key component in flood management policies and actions is determining flood magnitudes for specified return periods. This is a particularly difficult task in areas with a complex and changing climate and land-use, such as the Chicago metropolitan area. The standard design storm methodology based on the NOAA Atlas 14 and ISWS Bulletin 70 has been used in the past to estimate flood hydrographs with variable return periods in this region. In a changing climate, however, these publications may not be accurate. This study presents and illustrates a methodology for diagnostic analysis of future climate scenarios in the framework of urban flooding, and assesses the corresponding uncertainties. First, the design storms are calculated using data downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) at 30-km spacing for the present and 2050s under the IPCC A1Fi (high) and B1 (low) emissions scenarios. Next, the corresponding flood discharges at six watersheds in suburban Chicago are estimated using a hydrologic event model. The resulting scenarios in flood frequency were first assessed through a set of diagnostic tests for precipitation timing and frequency. The study did not reveal any significant changes in the 2050s in the average timing of heavy storms, but their regularity decreased. The average timing did not exhibit any significant spatial variability throughout the region. The precipitation frequency analysis revealed distinct differences between the northern and southeastern subregions of the Chicago metropolitan area. The quantiles in the northern subregion averaged for 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year return periods exhibited a 20% and 16% increase in daily precipitation for scenarios B1 and A1Fi, respectively. The southeastern subregion, however, exhibited a decrease of 12% for scenario B1 and a minor increase of 3% for scenario A1Fi. The hydrologic effects of changing precipitation on the flood quantiles were illustrated using six small watersheds in the region. The relative increases or decreases in precipitation translated into even larger relative increases or decreases in flood peaks, due to the nonlinear nature of the rainfall-runoff process. Simulations using multiple climate models, for longer periods, finer spatio-temporal resolution, and larger areal coverage could be used to more accurately account for numerous uncertainties in the precipitation and flood projections. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-24 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0172-z Authors Momcilo Markus, Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2204 Griffith Dr., Champaign, IL, USA Donald J. Wuebbles, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA Xin-Zhong Liang, Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2204 Griffith Dr., Champaign, IL, USA Katharine Hayhoe, Department of Geosciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, USA David A. R. Kristovich, Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2204 Griffith Dr., Champaign, IL, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    In this paper, we discuss the results of 2000–2100 simulations following the emissions associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with a chemistry-climate model, focusing on the changes in 1) atmospheric composition (troposphere and stratosphere) and 2) associated environmental parameters (such as nitrogen deposition). In particular, we find that tropospheric ozone is projected to decrease (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6) or increase (RCP8.5) between 2000 and 2100, with variations in methane a strong contributor to this spread. The associated tropospheric ozone global radiative forcing is shown to be in agreement with the estimate used in the RCPs, except for RCP8.5. Surface ozone in 2100 is projected to change little compared from its 2000 distribution, a much-reduced impact from previous projections based on the A2 high-emission scenario. In addition, globally-averaged stratospheric ozone is projected to recover at or beyond pre-1980 levels. Anthropogenic aerosols are projected to strongly decrease in the 21st century, a reflection of their projected decrease in emissions. Consequently, sulfate deposition is projected to strongly decrease. However, nitrogen deposition is projected to increase over certain regions because of the projected increase in NH 3 emissions. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0155-0 Authors Jean-François Lamarque, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA G. Page Kyle, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA Malte Meinshausen, Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria Steven J. Smith, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA Detlef P. van Vuuren, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Utrecht, Netherlands Andrew J. Conley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA Francis Vitt, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung: A special issue on the RCPs Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-4 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0157-y Authors Detlef P. van Vuuren, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, Bilthoven, The Netherlands James A. Edmonds, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USA Mikiko Kainuma, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A2361 Austria John Weyant, Stanford University, Huang Engineering Center 260, Stanford, CA, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    The RCP2.6 emission and concentration pathway is representative of the literature on mitigation scenarios aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to 2°C. These scenarios form the low end of the scenario literature in terms of emissions and radiative forcing. They often show negative emissions from energy use in the second half of the 21st century. The RCP2.6 scenario is shown to be technically feasible in the IMAGE integrated assessment modeling framework from a medium emission baseline scenario, assuming full participation of all countries. Cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from 2010 to 2100 need to be reduced by 70% compared to a baseline scenario, requiring substantial changes in energy use and emissions of non-CO 2 gases. These measures (specifically the use of bio-energy and reforestation measures) also have clear consequences for global land use. Based on the RCP2.6 scenario, recommendations for further research on low emission scenarios have been formulated. These include the response of the climate system to a radiative forcing peak, the ability of society to achieve the required emission reduction rates given political and social inertia and the possibilities to further reduce emissions of non-CO 2 gases. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3 Authors Detlef P. van Vuuren, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands Elke Stehfest, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands Michel G. J. den Elzen, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands Tom Kram, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands Jasper van Vliet, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands Sebastiaan Deetman, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands Morna Isaac, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands Kees Klein Goldewijk, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands Andries Hof, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands Angelica Mendoza Beltran, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands Rineke Oostenrijk, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands Bas van Ruijven, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m 2 . The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5 × 0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-27 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z Authors Detlef P. van Vuuren, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands Jae Edmonds, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USA Mikiko Kainuma, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A2361 Laxenburg, Austria Allison Thomson, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USA Kathy Hibbard, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland, 3200 Q Avenue K9-34, Richland, WA 99354, USA George C. Hurtt, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USA Tom Kram, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands Volker Krey, International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A2361 Laxenburg, Austria Jean-Francois Lamarque, Atmospheric Chemistry Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3450 Mitchell Lane, Boulder, CO 80301, USA Toshihiko Masui, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan Malte Meinshausen, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 601203, Telegrafenberg A31, 14412 Potsdam, Germany Nebojsa Nakicenovic, International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A2361 Laxenburg, Austria Steven J. Smith, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USA Steven K. Rose, Electric Power Research Institute, 3420 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, CA, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    La Ceiba, Honduras, a city of about 200,000 people, lies along the Caribbean Sea, nestled against a mountain range and the Rio Cangrejal. The city faces three flooding risks: routine flooding of city streets due to the lack of a stormwater drainage system; occasional major flooding of the Rio Cangrejal, which flows through the city; and flooding from heavy rainfall events and storm surges associated with tropical cyclones. In this study, we applied a method developed for the U.S. Agency for International Development and then worked with stakeholders in La Ceiba to understand climate change risks and evaluate adaptation alternatives. We estimated the impacts of climate change on the current flooding risks and on efforts to mitigate the flooding problems. The climate change scenarios, which addressed sea level rise and flooding, were based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates of sea level rise (Houghton et al. 2001 ) and published literature linking changes in temperature to more intense precipitation (Trenberth et al., Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 84:1205–1217, 2003 ) and hurricanes (Knutson and Tuleya, J Clim, 17:3477–3495, 2004 ). Using information from Trenberth et al., Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 84:1205–1217, (2003) and Knutson and Tuleya, J Clim, 17:3477–3495, 2004 , we scaled intense precipitation and hurricane wind speed based on projected temperature increases. We estimated the volume of precipitation in intense events to increase by 2 to 4% in 2025 and by 6 to 14% by 2050. A 13% increase in intense precipitation, the high scenario for 2050, could increase peak 5-year flood flows by about 60%. Building an enhanced urban drainage system that could cope with the estimated increased flooding would cost one-third more than building a system to handle current climate conditions, but would avoid costlier reconstruction in the future. The flow of the Rio Cangrejal would increase by one-third from more intense hurricanes. The costs of raising levees to protect the population from increased risks from climate change would be about $1 million. The coast west of downtown La Ceiba is the most vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges. It is relatively undeveloped, but is projected to have rapid development. Setbacks on coastal construction in that area may limit risks. The downtown coastline is also at risk and may need to be protected with groins and sand pumping. Stakeholders in La Ceiba concluded that addressing problems of urban drainage should be a top priority. They emphasized improved management of the Rio Cangrejal watershed and improved storm warnings to cope with risks from extreme precipitation and cyclones. Adoption of risk management principles and effective land use management could also help reduce risks from current climate and climate change. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0161-2 Authors Joel B. Smith, Stratus Consulting Inc., Boulder, CO, USA Kenneth M. Strzepek, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Julio Cardini, Serman & Associates S.A. and National Technological University, Buenos Aires, Argentina Mario Castaneda, Geoscience Institute, Polytechnical University of Engineering (UPI), Tegucigalpa, Honduras Julie Holland, ABPmer, Southampton, UK Carlos Quiroz, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA Tom M. L. Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Jose Herrero, Fundacion Cuero y Salado, La Ceiba, Honduras Peter Hearne, U.S. Agency for International Development, Tegucigalpa, Honduras John Furlow, U.S. Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750–2005) with harmonized emissions projected by four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005–2100. As concentrations are somewhat dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model MAGICC6. Projected ‘best-estimate’ global-mean surface temperature increases (using inter alia a climate sensitivity of 3°C) range from 1.5°C by 2100 for the lowest of the four RCPs, called both RCP3-PD and RCP2.6, to 4.5°C for the highest one, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels. Beyond 2100, we present the ECPs that are simple extensions of the RCPs, based on the assumption of either smoothly stabilizing concentrations or constant emissions: For example, the lower RCP2.6 pathway represents a strong mitigation scenario and is extended by assuming constant emissions after 2100 (including net negative CO 2 emissions), leading to CO 2 concentrations returning to 360 ppm by 2300. We also present the GHG concentrations for one supplementary extension, which illustrates the stringent emissions implications of attempting to go back to ECP4.5 concentration levels by 2250 after emissions during the 21 st century followed the higher RCP6 scenario. Corresponding radiative forcing values are presented for the RCP and ECPs. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-29 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z Authors Malte Meinshausen, Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany S. J. Smith, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USA K. Calvin, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USA J. S. Daniel, Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO 80305, USA M. L. T. Kainuma, Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan J-F. Lamarque, National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA K. Matsumoto, Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan S. A. Montzka, Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO 80305, USA S. C. B. Raper, CATE, Manchester Metropolitan University (MMU), Manchester, UK K. Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria A. Thomson, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USA G. J. M. Velders, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands D.P. P. van Vuuren, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, Netherlands Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    US public awareness of the reality and risks of human-caused climate change remains limited, despite strong evidence presented in the IPCC and other major climate assessments. One contributing factor may be that the immense collective effort to produce periodic climate assessments is typically not well matched with public communication and outreach efforts for these reports, leaving a vacuum to be filled by less authoritative sources. Print and online media coverage provides one metric of the US public reach of selected climate assessments between 2000 and 2010. The number of Lexis-Nexis articles for the search terms “ climate change ” or “ global warming ” within 14 days of each report’s release varied significantly over time with a peak occurring in 2007. When compared to background “ chatter ” relating to climate change, each assessment had widely diverse penetration in the US media (~4% for US National Climate Assessment in 2000; ~17% for Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment in 2004; ~19% and ~10% for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report Working Group I and Working Group II respectively in 2007; ~4% for the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) assessment report in 2009; and ~5% for US National Research Council’s America’s Climate Choices reports in 2010). We propose ways to improve the public reach of climate assessments, focusing in particular on approaches to more effectively characterize and communicate the role of uncertainty in human actions as distinct from other sources of uncertainty across the range of possible climate futures. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0194-6 Authors Brenda Ekwurzel, Union of Concerned Scientists, 1825 K St. NW, Ste. 800, Washington, DC 20006-1232, USA Peter C. Frumhoff, Union of Concerned Scientists, Two Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA James J. McCarthy, Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford St., Cambridge, MA 02138, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Even with aggressive global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the climate will continue to change for decades due to previous emissions and the inertia in biogeophysical and social systems. Therefore, as a complement to mitigation actions, society must also focus on enhancing its capacity to adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change that we are already experiencing and will continue to experience over the next few decades. Resource managers, regional planners, and government agencies need to consider climate risks in their planning. We provide an overview of climate change scenarios for California and suggestions on the use of climate projections in state and regional planning efforts in the future. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0240-4 Authors Michael D. Mastrandrea, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Yang and Yamazaki Environment & Energy Bldg, MC 4205, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305, USA Amy L. Luers, Google, 900 Alta Avenue, Mountain View, CA, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Climate change is likely to pose considerable new challenges to California’s electricity sector. This paper primarily focuses on the adaptation challenges of an important component of the energy arena: electricity demand in the residential and commercial sectors and electricity supply. The primary challenge to California’s electricity sector will likely be the increase in demand for air conditioning as a result of rising temperatures. In addition, renewable energy sources, which are an increasing share of the electricity portfolio, are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Many of the key players have been actively considering the implications of climate change. Because electricity generation accounts for nearly 30% of greenhouse gas emissions, this sector has been a target of the state’s efforts to reduce emissions. Fortunately, many of the same tools can simultaneously improve the sector’s resilience to a changing climate. Demand management strategies and supply diversification are both important strategies. Local governments can play a central role in encouraging the adoption of more energy efficient building codes and the use of more renewable sources, such as solar energy. The positive steps taken by many local governments are encouraging. Steps to increase public awareness are an important, often missing component, however. Increases in research, development, and demonstration to improve system resiliency and develop new energy conservation tools are also needed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-25 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0242-2 Authors Edward Vine, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Building 90-4000, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Millions of people in the geopolitically important region of Central Asia depend on water from snow- and glacier-melt driven international rivers, most of all the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. The riparian countries of these rivers have experienced recurring water allocation conflicts ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. Will climate change exacerbate water stress and thus conflicts? We have developed a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfall-runoff model for the Syr Darya to quantify impacts and show that climatic changes are likely to have consequences on runoff seasonality due to earlier snow-melt. This will increase water stress in unregulated catchments because less water will be available for irrigation in the summer months. Threats from geohazards, above all glacier lake outbursts, are likely to increase as well. The area at highest risk is the densely populated, agriculturally productive, and politically unstable Fergana Valley. Targeted infrastructural developments will be required in the region. If the current mismanagement of water and energy resources can be replaced with more effective resource allocation mechanisms through the strengthening of transboundary institutions, Central Asia will be able to successfully address these future climate-related challenges. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0253-z Authors Tobias Siegfried, Hydrosolutions GmbH, Zurich, Switzerland Thomas Bernauer, ETH Zurich, Center for International Studies, Zurich, Switzerland Renaud Guiennet, Department of Environmental Engineering, DTU, Lyngby, Denmark Scott Sellars, Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA Andrew W. Robertson, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, Lamont Campus, Palisades, NY, USA Justin Mankin, School of Earth Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA Peter Bauer-Gottwein, Department of Environmental Engineering, DTU, Lyngby, Denmark Andrey Yakovlev, Uzbek Scientific Investigation and Survey Institute (UzGIP), Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources, Tashkent, Uzbekistan Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    There is a deep disconnect between scientific and public concern about climate change. One reason is that global climate change is a fairly abstract concept with little perceived relevance, so a key challenge is to translate climate-change projections into locally concrete examples of potential impacts. Here we use climate analog analyses as an alternative method for identifying and communicating climate-change impacts. Our analysis uses multiple downscaled general circulation models for the state of Wisconsin, at 0.1 decimal degree resolution, and identifies contemporary locations in North America that are the most similar to the projected future climates for Wisconsin. We assess the uncertainties inherent in climate-change projections among greenhouse gas emission scenarios, time windows (mid-21st century vs. late 21st-century) and different combinations of climate variables. For all future scenarios and simulations, contemporary climatic analogs within North America were found for Wisconsin’s future climate. Closest analogs are primarily 200–500 km to the south-southwest of their Wisconsin reference location. Temperature has the largest effect on choice of climatic analog, but precipitation is the greatest source of uncertainty. Under the higher-end emission scenarios, the contemporary climatic analogs for Wisconsin’s end-21st-century climates are almost entirely outside the state. Climate-analog analyses offer a place-based means of assessing climate impacts that is complementary to the species-based approaches of species distributional models, and carries no assumptions about the characterization and conservatism of species niches. The analog method is simple and flexible, and can be readily extended to other regions and other environmental variables. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0261-z Authors Samuel Veloz, Department of Geography, Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA John W. Williams, Department of Geography, Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA David Lorenz, Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA Michael Notaro, Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA Steve Vavrus, Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA Daniel J. Vimont, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    International climate negotiations that aim at reducing global greenhouse gas emissions are strongly influenced by a conflict between rich and poor countries and by a lack of consensus about the urgency of emission reduction measures. We have previously in an experimental game characterised the implied challenge of avoiding dangerous climate change as the “collective-risk social dilemma”. Here we introduce heterogeneous wealth and two time horizons into the collective-risk social dilemma game. We show that rich players are willing to substitute for missing contributions by the poor, provided the players collectively face intermediate climate targets that, if not reached, are potentially followed by simulated intermediate costly climate risks. However, despite some increase in the contributions of the rich against the final collective target, the final target is reached less often than the intermediate target. Our results provide experimental evidence that similar, intermediate time horizons between climate risks and climate change mitigation planning are a necessary, though not sufficient, component of successful climate negotiations. Content Type Journal Article Category Letter Pages 1-8 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0319-y Authors Manfred Milinski, Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology, August-Thienemann-Strasse 2, 24306 Ploen, Germany Torsten Röhl, Research Group Evolutionary Theory, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology, August-Thienemann-Strasse 2, 24306 Ploen, Germany Jochem Marotzke, Department “The Ocean in the Earth System”, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung: Erratum to: Pan evaporation and wind run decline in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa (1974–2005): implications for vegetation responses to climate change Content Type Journal Article Category Erratum Pages 1-2 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0113-x Authors M. Timm Hoffman, Botany Department, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, 7701 South Africa Michael D. Cramer, Botany Department, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, 7701 South Africa Lindsey Gillson, Botany Department, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, 7701 South Africa Michael Wallace, Spatial Analysis Unit, Institute for Resource Utilisation, Western Cape Department of Agriculture, Private Bag X1, Elsenburg, 7607 South Africa Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO 2 concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negative emission policies under an exogenous CO 2 constraint and with stochastic technological change. We find that near-term abatement is not sensitive to the availability of R&D policies, but the anticipated availability of negative emission strategies can reduce the near-term abatement optimally undertaken to meet 2°C temperature limits. Further, planning to deploy negative emission technologies shifts optimal R&D funding from “carbon-free” technologies into “emission intensity” technologies. Making negative emission strategies available enables an 80% reduction in the cost of keeping year 2100 CO 2 concentrations near their current level. However, negative emission strategies are less important if the possibility of tipping points rules out using late-century net negative emissions to temporarily overshoot the CO 2 constraint earlier in the century. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0269-4 Authors Derek M. Lemoine, Department of Economics, University of Arizona, McClelland Hall 401, 1130 E Helen St, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA Sabine Fuss, Ecosystems Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria Jana Szolgayova, Ecosystems Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria Michael Obersteiner, Ecosystems Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria Daniel M. Kammen, Energy and Resources Group, University of California, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720-3050, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    A simulated warming manipulation was conducted to evaluate the effects of temperature increase on cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), copper (Cu), iron (Fe) and zinc (Zn) accumulation in Solanum tuberosum L. at Dingxi, Gansu, in the semiarid northwest of China. The objective of this study was to determine if temperature increases significantly changed trace element concentrations and contents in the different ecosystem compartments by affecting soil content, soil solubility and plant capture. The results reveal that an increase in temperature will lead to a significant change in trace element concentrations and contents in Solanum tuberosum L. The strongest effects of a 3°C temperature increase are increased Cu, Zn and Fe leaf concentrations of 25, 27 and 24%, respectively; but decreases in Cd, Pb, Fe, Zn and Cu tuber concentrations of 27, 55, 41, 29 and 23%, respectively. The increasing concentrations of some trace elements in Solanum tuberosum L. leaves are related to greater retranslocation, photosynthetic capacity and growth. Warming decreases the concentrations of some trace elements in tubers, implying that tuber growth rate exceeds its metal uptake rate at higher temperatures. Indeed, it is expected that by the year 2050 the increased temperature will have induced a decrease of concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Fe and Zn of 9.1, 11.5, 18.5, 16.8 and 15.8%, respectively, in tubers in the study area. In addition, the results indicate that a 1–3°C increase in temperature will improve the availability of selected trace elements and transfer potential of these elements from soil to Solanum tuberosum L. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0251-1 Authors Yu Li, Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA; Key laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Lanzhou, 730020 China Qiang Zhang, Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA; Key laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Lanzhou, 730020 China Runyuan Wang, Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA; Key laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Lanzhou, 730020 China Xin Gou, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China Heling Wang, Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA; Key laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Lanzhou, 730020 China Sheng Wang, Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA; Key laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Lanzhou, 730020 China Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Climate change and land degradation result in decreasing yields and crop failures in Northern Ghana and have caused further impoverishment of Ghana’s poorest region. Farmers have diversified their livelihoods to adapt to uncertain environmental conditions in various ways. While traditionally a diversification of the production and migration were the prime means of adaptation, many farmers have started to intensify their production by adopting shallow groundwater irrigation for vegetable gardening for Ghana’s urban markets. This has helped to cope with a changing environment, ameliorated poverty and reversed rural–urban migration, while the local hydrology curbed an over-exploitation of groundwater resources, commonly associated with an uncontrolled farmer-driven expansion of groundwater irrigation. This research confirms that farmer-driven small-scale irrigation can play an important role in the process of climate change adaptation. However, while farmers tried to integrate in the larger economy, they have become subject to market failures that in their essence are caused by unfair and unpredictable patterns of global trade. It is this double exposure to global environmental change and economic globalization that need to be taken into consideration when local adaptive capacities are discussed. Many convincing arguments call for the revision of some of the most unfair and devastating economic practices; however, the need to enhance adaptive capacity towards global climate change for poor parts of the population in the south should be added to the discussion. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0199-1 Authors Wolfram Laube, Center for Development Research, Department of Political and Cultural Change, University of Bonn, Walter-Flex-Str. 3, 53113 Bonn, Germany Benjamin Schraven, German Development Institute, Department Environmental Policy and Management of Natural Resources, 53113 Bonn, Germany Martha Awo, University of Ghana, Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research, P.O. BOX LG 74, Legon, Ghana Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Recent research indicates that monsoon rainfall became less frequent but more intense in India during the latter half of the Twentieth Century, thus increasing the risk of drought and flood damage to the country’s wet-season ( kharif ) rice crop. Our statistical analysis of state-level Indian data confirms that drought and extreme rainfall negatively affected rice yield (harvest per hectare) in predominantly rainfed areas during 1966–2002, with drought having a much greater impact than extreme rainfall. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we find that yield would have been 1.7% higher on average if monsoon characteristics, especially drought frequency, had not changed since 1960. Yield would have received an additional boost of nearly 4% if two other meteorological changes (warmer nights and lower rainfall at the end of the growing season) had not occurred. In combination, these changes would have increased cumulative harvest during 1966–2002 by an amount equivalent to about a fifth of the increase caused by improvements in farming technology. Climate change has evidently already negatively affected India’s hundreds of millions of rice producers and consumers. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0208-4 Authors Maximilian Auffhammer, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA Jeffrey R. Vincent, Nicholas School of the Environment and Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Effectively communicating the complexity of climate change to the public is an important goal for the climate change research community, particularly for those of us who receive public funds. The challenge of communicating the science of climate change will be reduced if climate change researchers consider the links between personality types, communication tendencies and learning preferences. Jungian personality type is one of many factors related to an individual’s preferred style of taking in and processing information, i.e., preferred communication style. In this paper, we demonstrate that the Jungian personality type profile of interdisciplinary, early career climate researchers is significantly different from that of the general population in the United States. In particular, Ph.D. climate researchers tend towards Intuition and focus on theories and the “big picture”, while the U.S. general population tends towards Sensing and focuses on concrete examples and experience. There are other differences as well in the way the general public as a group prefers to take in information, make decisions, and deal with the outer world, compared with the average interdisciplinary climate scientist. These differences have important implications for communication between these two groups. We suggest that climate researchers will be more effective in conveying their messages if they are aware of their own personality type and potential differences in preferred learning and communication styles between themselves and the general public (and other specific audiences), and use this knowledge to more effectively target their audience. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0205-7 Authors C. Susan Weiler, Office for Earth System Studies, Whitman College, Walla Walla, WA 99362, USA Jason K. Keller, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA Christina Olex, The Point, 121 Jewett Street, Newton, MA 02458, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Climate change in California is altering habitat conditions for many species and exacerbating stress from other factors such as alien invasive species, pollution, and habitat fragmentation. However, the current legal and planning framework for species protection does not explicitly take climate change into account. The regulatory framework is primarily reactive, kicking in only after species’ health is gravely threatened. Neither federal nor state regulations require forward-looking, climate-sensitive species or ecosystem protection plans. Habitat planning is poorly funded and often piecemeal. In this context, the wrong lands may be protected, with development allowed to occur in areas that would be most beneficial for species conservation in the future. A more forward-looking approach to habitat conservation is needed, one based on a statewide strategy to identify and protect critical habitat areas, including corridors to enable species migration. The approach would also require development of assessment indicators and assistance strategies not dependent on current habitat structure, and a governance structure to implement regular, periodic updates of management plans in relation to agreed-upon performance indicators. Such a strategy should integrate habitat conservation planning with other state and regional plans and objectives, such as for transportation infrastructure, urban development, and mitigation of climate change. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-29 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0246-y Authors Elisa Barbour, Department of City and Regional Planning, University of California, Berkeley, 904-B Bancroft Way, Berkeley, CA 94710, USA Lara M. Kueppers, School of Natural Sciences and Sierra Nevada Research Institute, University of California, Merced, 5200 North Lake Road, Merced, CA 95343, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung: The impacts of climate change in Europe (the PESETA research project) Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-6 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0336-x Authors Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Joint Research Center (JRC), European Commission, Ed. Expo c/Inca Garcilaso, 3, 41092 Seville, Spain Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    This study links climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture in Europe. Climate change is expected to intensify the existing risks, particularly in southern regions, and create new opportunities in some northern areas. These risks and opportunities are characterised and interpreted across European regions by analysing over 300 highly relevant publications that appeared in the last decade. The result is a synthesis of the reasons for concern for European agricultural regions. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating the costs and benefits of a number of technical and policy actions. The results highlight the importance of enhanced water use efficiency as a critical response to climate risks and the need for a more effective extension service. These results aim to assist stakeholders as they take up the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-26 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0344-x Authors Ana Iglesias, Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain Sonia Quiroga, Department of Statistics, Economic Structure and International Economic Organisation, Universidad de Alcala, Alcala, Spain Marta Moneo, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany Luis Garrote, Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    The effects of climate change will be felt by most farmers in Europe over the next decades. This study provides consistent results of the impact of climate change on arable agriculture in Europe by using high resolution climate data, socio-economic data, and impact assessment models, including farmer adaptation. All scenarios are consistent with the spatial distribution of effects, exacerbating regional disparities and current vulnerability to climate. Since the results assume no restrictions on the use of water for irrigation or on the application of agrochemicals, they may be considered optimistic from the production point of view and somewhat pessimistic from the environmental point of view. The results provide an estimate of the regional economic impact of climate change, as well as insights into the importance of mitigation and adaptation policies. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0338-8 Authors Ana Iglesias, Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Avenida de la Complutense, sn, 28040 Madrid, Spain Luis Garrote, Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain Sonia Quiroga, Department of Statistics, Economic Structure and International Organization, Universidad de Alcala, Madrid, Spain Marta Moneo, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    This paper assesses the economic value associated with the development of various low-carbon technologies in the context of climate stabilization. We analyze the impact of restrictions on the development of specific mitigation technologies, comparing three integrated assessment models used in the RECIPE comparison exercise. Our results indicate that the diversification of the carbon mitigation portfolio is an important determinant of the feasibility of climate policy. Foregoing specific low carbon technologies raises the cost of achieving the climate policy, though at different rates. CCS and renewables are shown to have the highest value, given their flexibility and wide coverage. The costs associated with technology failure are shown to be related to the role that each technology plays in the stabilization scenario, but also to the expectations about their technological progress. In particular, the costs of restriction of mature technologies can be partly compensated by more innovation and technological advancement. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0294-3 Authors Massimo Tavoni, Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change, Venice, Italy Enrica De Cian, Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change, Venice, Italy Gunnar Luderer, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany Jan Christoph Steckel, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany Henri Waisman, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environment et le Dévelopment, Paris, France Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    The PESETA project makes a high-resolution integrated assessment of the effects of climate change in Europe in the following impact categories: agriculture, river floods, coastal systems, tourism and human health. Many relevant methodological decisions underlie the multi-disciplinary assessment, such as the selection of the climate scenarios and the economic valuation of the physical impacts. The main purpose of this article is to document the methodological framework of the PESETA project, identifying also where further research is required. How the different sources of uncertainty have been addressed in the project is explicitly analysed, including the climate change scenarios and the various sectoral methodologies. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0337-9 Authors Ole B. Christensen, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark Clare M. Goodess, Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Joint Research Center (JRC), European Commission, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    This paper scopes a number of the health impacts of climate change in Europe (EU-27) quantitatively, using physical and monetary metrics. Temperature-related mortality effects, salmonellosis and coastal flooding-induced mental health impacts resulting from climate change are isolated from the effects of socio-economic change for the 2011–2040 and 2071–2100 time periods. The temperature-induced mortality effects of climate change include both positive and negative effects, for winter (cold) and summer (heat) effects, respectively, and have welfare costs (and benefits) of up to 100 billion Euro annually by the later time-period, though these are unevenly distributed across countries. The role of uncertainty in quantifying these effects is explored through sensitivity analysis on key parameters. This investigates climate model output, climate scenario, impact function, the existence and extent of acclimatisation, and the choice of physical and monetary metrics. While all of these lead to major differences in reported results, acclimatisation is particularly important in determining the size of the health impacts, and could influence the scale and form of public adaptation at the EU and national level. The welfare costs for salmonellosis from climate change are estimated at potentially several hundred million Euro annually by the period 2071–2100. Finally, a scoping assessment of the health costs of climate change from coastal flooding, focusing on mental health problems such as depression, are estimated at up to 1.5 billion Euro annually by the period 2071–2100. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-26 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0342-z Authors Paul Watkiss, Paul Watkiss Associates, Oxford, UK Alistair Hunt, Department of Economics, University of Bath, Bath, UK Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung: Erratum to: Assessing the strength of regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a global warming of 2°C Content Type Journal Article Category Erratum Pages 1-3 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0381-5 Authors Wilhelm May, Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California’s landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level, helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments, some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012, are offered. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0318-z Authors Guido Franco, Public Interest Energy Research, California Energy Commission, Sacramento, CA, USA Daniel R. Cayan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA Susanne Moser, Stanford University, Santa Cruz, CA, USA Michael Hanemann, Economics Department, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Myoung-Ae Jones, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Sacramento, CA, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    A band of cooling that extends across mid-latitude Eurasia is identified in the wintertime surface air temperatures of the latest ECMWF reanalysis. This cooling is related to extreme warming around the Kara Sea through changes in the meridional temperature gradient. Surface temperatures in the Arctic have risen faster than those at lower latitudes, and as the Arctic warming increases, this north–south temperature gradient is weakened. This change in the meridional temperature gradient causes a decrease in the westerly winds that help maintain the mild European climate by transporting heat from the Atlantic. Since decreasing sea ice concentrations have been shown to be a driving factor in Arctic amplification, a singular value decomposition analysis is used to confirm the co-variability of the Arctic sea ice, including the Kara Sea, and the temperatures over the mid-latitude Eurasia. These findings suggest that decreasing sea ice concentrations can change the meridional temperature gradient and hence the large-scale atmospheric flow of the Northern Hemisphere. Content Type Journal Article Category Letter Pages 1-7 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0334-z Authors S. D. Outten, G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Thormhlensgt. 47, 5006 Bergen, Norway I. Esau, G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Thormhlensgt. 47, 5006 Bergen, Norway Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    This study provides the first climatological synthesis of how urbanization augments warm-season convection among a range of cities in the southeastern U.S. By comparing the location of convection in these cities and adjacent control regions via high-resolution, radar reflectivity and lightning data, we illustrate that demographic and land-use changes feed back to local atmospheric processes that promote thunderstorm formation and persistence. Composite radar data for a 10-year, June–August period are stratified according to specific “medium” and “high” reflectivity thresholds. As surrogates for potentially strong (medium reflectivity) and severe (high reflectivity) thunderstorms, these radar climatologies can be used to determine if cities are inducing more intense events. Results demonstrate positive urban amplification of thunderstorm frequency and intensity for major cities. Mid-sized cities investigated had more subtle urban effects, suggesting that the urban influences on thunderstorm development and strength are muted by land cover and climatological controls. By examining cities of various sizes, as well as rural counterparts, the investigation determined that the degree of urban thunderstorm augmentation corresponds to the geometry of the urban footprint. The research provides a methodological template for continued monitoring of anthropogenically forced and/or modified thunderstorms. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0324-1 Authors Walker S. Ashley, Meteorology Program, Department of Geography, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL 60115, USA Mace L. Bentley, Meteorology Program, Department of Geography, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL 60115, USA J. Anthony Stallins, Department of Geography, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40606, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    The PESETA project has estimated the physical effects of climate change in Europe for the following impact categories with a market valuation: agriculture, river floods, coastal systems and tourism. Four alternative scenarios of future climate change have been considered. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) GEM-E3 model for Europe has been used to integrate the PESETA damages under a consistent economic framework. The approach followed has been to assess the effects of future climate (as of 2080s) on today’s economy. This article details the way each sectoral impact has been integrated into the CGE model. The EU welfare loss is estimated to be in a range of 0.2% to 1%, depending on the climate future and the projected sea level rise. Results show that the Southern Europe region appears as the most vulnerable area to climate change. Impacts in coastal systems, agriculture and river floods determine the overall and regional pattern of impacts within Europe. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0343-y Authors Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Joint Research Center (JRC), Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Edificio Expo, C/Inca Garcilaso, 3, 41092 Sevilla, Spain László Szabó, Joint Research Center (JRC), Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Edificio Expo, C/Inca Garcilaso, 3, 41092 Sevilla, Spain Denise van Regemorter, Joint Research Center (JRC), Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Edificio Expo, C/Inca Garcilaso, 3, 41092 Sevilla, Spain Antonio Soria, Joint Research Center (JRC), Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Edificio Expo, C/Inca Garcilaso, 3, 41092 Sevilla, Spain Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Large wildfire occurrence and burned area are modeled using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios. The range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes is analyzed over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES] A2 and B1 scenarios); three global climate models (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques CM3, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 and National Center for Atmospheric Research PCM1); three scenarios for future population growth and development footprint; and two thresholds for defining the wildland-urban interface relative to housing density. Results were assessed for three 30-year time periods centered on 2020, 2050, and 2085, relative to a 30-year reference period centered on 1975. Increases in wildfire burned area are anticipated for most scenarios, although the range of outcomes is large and increases with time. The increase in wildfire burned area associated with the higher emissions pathway (SRES A2) is substantial, with increases statewide ranging from 36% to 74% by 2085, and increases exceeding 100% in much of the forested areas of Northern California in every SRES A2 scenario by 2085. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0329-9 Authors A. L. Westerling, University of California, Merced, 5200 N. Lake Rd, Merced, CA 95343, USA B. P. Bryant, Pardee RAND Graduate School, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, USA H. K. Preisler, USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station, Albany, CA, USA T. P. Holmes, USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA H. G. Hidalgo, School of Physics and Center for Geophysical Research, University of Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica T. Das, CH2MHILL, Inc., San Diego, CA 92101, USA S. R. Shrestha, University of California, Merced, 5200 N. Lake Rd, Merced, CA 95343, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    California’s mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state—in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change—is “how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?” To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state’s primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p  〈= 0.01) for all the three GCMs in the period 2051–2099. The frequency of flood events above selected historical thresholds also increases under projections from CNRM CM3 and NCAR PCM1 climate models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2.1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California’s complex western Sierra landscapes. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-24 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0298-z Authors Tapash Das, Division of Climate, Atmospheric Sciences, and Physical Oceanography, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, Mail Code 0224, La Jolla, CA 92093-0224, USA Michael D. Dettinger, Division of Climate, Atmospheric Sciences, and Physical Oceanography, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, Mail Code 0224, La Jolla, CA 92093-0224, USA Daniel R. Cayan, Division of Climate, Atmospheric Sciences, and Physical Oceanography, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, Mail Code 0224, La Jolla, CA 92093-0224, USA Hugo G. Hidalgo, School of Physics and Center for Geophysical Research, University of Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Climate change is an issue of great importance for human rights, public health, and socioeconomic equity because of its diverse consequences overall as well as its disproportionate impact on vulnerable and socially marginalized populations. Vulnerability to climate change is determined by a community’s ability to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from the impact of major weather events. Climate change will affect industrial and agricultural sectors, as well as transportation, health, and energy infrastructure. These shifts will have significant health and economic consequences for diverse communities throughout California. Without proactive policies to address these equity concerns, climate change will likely reinforce and amplify current as well as future socioeconomic disparities, leaving low-income, minority, and politically marginalized groups with fewer economic opportunities and more environmental and health burdens. This review explores the disproportionate impacts of climate change on vulnerable groups in California and investigates the costs and benefits of the climate change mitigation strategies specified for implementation in the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32). Lastly, knowledge gaps, future research priorities, and policy implications are identified. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0310-7 Authors Seth B. Shonkoff, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, Division of Society and Environment, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall, MC 3144, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Rachel Morello-Frosch, Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management & School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall, MC 3114, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Manuel Pastor, Departments of Geography and American Studies and Ethnicity, University of Southern California, 3620 S. Vermont Ave, KAP-462, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0255, USA James Sadd, Department of Environmental Science and Geology, Occidental College, 1600 Campus Rd., Los Angeles, CA 90041, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Climate change could substantially alter the width of beaches in Southern California. Climate-driven sea level rise will have at least two important impacts on beaches: (1) higher sea level will cause all beaches to become more narrow, all things being held constant, and (2) sea level rise may affect patterns of beach erosion and accretion when severe storms combine with higher high tides. To understand the potential economic impacts of these two outcomes, this study examined the physical and economic effects of permanent beach loss caused by inundation due to sea level rise of one meter and of erosion and accretion caused by a single, extremely stormy year (using a model of beach change based on the wave climate conditions of the El Niño year of 1982/1983.) We use a random utility model of beach attendance in Southern California that estimates the impacts of changes on beach width for different types of beach user visiting public beaches in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. The model allows beachgoers to have different preferences for beach width change depending on beach size. We find that the effect of climate-driven beach change differs for users that participate in bike path activities, sand-based activities, and water-based activities. We simulate the effects of climate-related beach loss on attendance patterns at 51 public beaches, beach-related expenditures at those beaches, and the non-market (consumer surplus) value of beach going to those beaches. We estimate that increasing sea level will cause an overall reduction of economic value in beach going, with some beaches experiencing increasing attendance and beach-related earnings while attendance and earnings at other beaches would be lower. We also estimate that the potential annual economic impacts from a single stormy year may be as large as those caused by permanent inundation that would result from a rise in sea level of one meter. The economic impacts of both permanent inundation and storm-related erosion are distributed unevenly across the region. To put the economic impacts of these changes in beach width in perspective, the paper provides simple estimates of the cost of mitigating beach loss by nourishing beaches with sand. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0309-0 Authors Linwood Pendleton, The Nicholas Institute at Duke University, Duke University, P.O. Box 90335, Durham, NC 27708, USA Philip King, Department of Economics, San Francisco State University, 1600 Holloway Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94132, USA Craig Mohn, Cascade Econometrics, 4509 230th Way SE, Sammamish, WA 98075, USA D. G. Webster, Environmental Studies Program, Dartmouth College, 6182 Steele Hall, Hanover, NH 03755, USA Ryan Vaughn, Ziman Center, University of California, Los Angeles, 110 Westwood Pl, Los Angeles, CA 90095-0001, USA Peter N. Adams, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Changes in extreme events may represent an important component of climate change impacts on agricultural systems in California. This study considered the relative historical importance of extreme events, as measured by insurance and disaster payments. The causes for each main event for 1993–2007 were classified into general categories to compare the importance of dry vs. wet and hot vs. cold events. The study found that the most common cause of both insurance indemnity and disaster payments is excess moisture, followed by cold spells and heat waves. Climate change is likely to have different effects on the occurrence of each of these, for instance with frosts becoming less common while heat waves increase in frequency and duration. Resolving the overall net effect of changes in climate extremes will largely depend on improved understanding of future risks of excess rainfall and flooding events. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-9 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0304-5 Authors David B. Lobell, Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Program on Food Security and Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA Angela Torney, Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Program on Food Security and Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA Christopher B. Field, Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA 94305, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Perennial crops are among the most valuable of California’s diverse agricultural products. They are also potentially the most influenced by information on future climate, since individual plants are commonly grown for more than 30 years. This study evaluated the impacts of future climate changes on the 20 most valuable perennial crops in California, using a combination of statistical crop models and downscaled climate model projections. County records on crop harvests and weather from 1980 to 2005 were used to evaluate the influence of weather on yields, with a series of cross-validation and sensitivity tests used to evaluate the robustness of perceived effects. In the end, only four models appear to have a clear weather response based on historical data, with another four presenting significant but less robust relationships. Projecting impacts of climate trends to 2050 using historical relationships reveals that cherries are the only crop unambiguously threatened by warming, with no crops clearly benefiting from warming. Another robust result is that almond yields will be harmed by winter warming, although this effect may be counteracted by beneficial warming in spring and summer. Overall, the study has advanced understanding of climate impacts on California agriculture and has highlighted the importance of measuring and tracking uncertainties due to the difficulty of uncovering crop-climate relationships. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0303-6 Authors David B. Lobell, Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Program on Food Security and Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA Christopher B. Field, Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA 94305, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    This paper describes research to estimate the effects of climate change on two high-elevation hydropower systems in California: the Upper American River Project, operated by the Sacramento Municipal Utility District, and the Big Creek system, operated by Southern California Edison. The study builds on a previous model of the Upper American River Project, which is here modified and extended for use to simulate two hydropower systems under various conditions. Future operations of the two high-elevation systems are simulated using climate change scenarios provided for the Second California Assessment. These scenarios suggest reduced precipitation and reduced runoff for both systems, and a shift toward runoff earlier in the year. The change in the hydrograph is somewhat greater for the Upper American River Project system, because its basins lie at a lower elevation. Reduced runoff directly reduces energy generation and revenues from both systems. Because the Upper American River Project system is projected to have greater spills with warmer climate conditions, it also has greater reduction in energy generation and revenues. Both systems continue to meet peak historical power demands in summer under most climate projections. However, if the number of heat waves increases in the late summer (September), reservoir operating strategies may need to be modified. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0301-8 Authors Sebastian Vicuña, Centro Interdisciplinario de Cambio Global, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile John A. Dracup, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA Larry Dale, Energy and Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    In this work we evaluate the implications of climate change for future fluvial flood risk in Europe, considering climate developments under the SRES A2 (high emission) and B2 (low emission) scenario. We define flood risk as the product of flood probability (or hazard), exposure of capital and population, and vulnerability to the effect of flooding. From the European flood hazard simulations of Dankers and Feyen (J Geophys Res 114:D16108. doi: 10.1029/2008JD011523 , 2009 ) discharges with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 250 and 500 years were extracted and converted into flood inundation extents and depths using a planar approximation approach. Flood inundation extents and depths were transformed into direct monetary damage using country specific flood depth-damage functions and land use information. Population exposure was assessed by overlaying the flood inundation information with data on population density. By linearly interpolating damages and population exposed between the different return periods, we constructed damage and population exposure probability functions under present and future climate. From the latter expected annual damages (EAD) and expected annual population exposed (EAP) were calculated. To account for flood protection the damage and population exposure probability functions were truncated at design return periods based on the country GDP/capita. Results indicate that flood damages are projected to rise across much of Western Europe. Decreases in flood damage are consistently projected for north-eastern parts of Europe. For EU27 as a whole, current EAD of approximately €6.4 billion is projected to amount to €14–21.5 billion (in constant prices of 2006) by the end of this century, depending on the scenario. The number of people affected by flooding is projected to rise by approximately 250,000 to 400,000. Notwithstanding these numbers are subject to uncertainty, they provide an indication of potential future developments in flood risk in a changing climate. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0339-7 Authors Luc Feyen, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy Rutger Dankers, Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom Katalin Bódis, Institute for Energy and Transport, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy Peter Salamon, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy José I. Barredo, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Climate change might lead to large shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. This article simulates the effect of future climate change by the 2080s on outdoor international tourism expenditure within Europe. The assessment is based on the statistical relationship between bed nights and a climate-related index of human comfort, after accounting for other determinants of bed nights such as income and prices. It is concluded that climate change could have significant impacts on the regional distribution of the physical resources supporting tourism in Europe. For example, in summer, Southern Europe could experience climate conditions that are less favourable to tourism than the current climate, while countries in the North could enjoy better conditions. The economic effects of these changes are likely to be sizeable, albeit difficult to assess. Crucially, they are shown to depend on tourists’ temporal flexibility with respect to holiday planning. The greater the prominence of institutional rigidities such as school holidays, the larger the differences between winning and losing regions in terms of economic impact. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0341-0 Authors Bas Amelung, International Centre for Integrated assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P.O. box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands Alvaro Moreno, International Centre for Integrated assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P.O. box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    California timber production has been declining in an era of warming, increased wildfires, land conversion, and growing emphasis on recreation. Climate change has the potential to further affect California timber production through changes in individual tree growth rates, forest dieback, and shifts in species ranges and ecosystem composition. Coupled with changes in global timber prices, themselves the result of productivity effects, these production impacts hold important consequences for California’s private timberlands. This study uses models that project tree species productivity and movement across the landscape under climate change, coupled with economic models of landowner adaptation and returns from multiple harvest strategies. Our results show that under likely price scenarios, climate change will result in an overall decline in harvested timber value relative to no climate change, with decreases of 4.9 to 8.5% by the end of the century. The magnitude of decrease depends on climate change scenario, price scenario and management option – with dollar losses totaling up to 8.1 billion in total land value ( - 2.7 billion given a 4% discount rate). There is substantial spatial variation in these changes; most areas show significant declines in timber value while some show modest increases relative to a no climate change baseline. If prices are not affected by climate change, more areas experience gains in value. We find that forestry management strategies can mitigate lost value, indicating that climate change adaptation programs can yield important economic benefits. Declining timber value corresponds disproportionately to areas already experiencing timberland conversion to housing or agriculture. Policy measures to stem conversion of devalued timberlands may warrant consideration. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0307-2 Authors L. Hannah, Conservation International, Arlington, VA, USA C. Costello, University of California Santa Barbara, 2400 Bren Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5131, USA C. Guo, University of California Santa Barbara, 2400 Bren Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5131, USA L. Ries, University of California Santa Barbara, 2400 Bren Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5131, USA C. Kolstad, University of California Santa Barbara, 2400 Bren Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5131, USA D. Panitz, University of California Santa Barbara, 2400 Bren Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5131, USA N. Snider, University of California Santa Barbara, 2400 Bren Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5131, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    A number of indices have been employed to describe weather extremes on the basis of climate regimes and public concerns. In this study, we combined these traditional indices into four groups according to whether they relate to warm (T warm ), cold (T cold ), wet (P wet ), or dry (P dry ) extremes. Analysis of the combined indices calculated for the daily temperatures and precipitation at 750 meteorological stations in Korea, China, and Japan for 1960s–2000s shows increasing trends in T warm and P dry events and decreasing trends in T cold events in recent decades, particularly in the northern part of East Asia. A notable regional variation is an increase in the P wet events in the Korean Peninsula. We applied the same analysis to a 200-year global climate model simulation for 1900–2099 using the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Climate System Model 3. During the 20th century, the changes in T warm and T cold calculated from the model data are largely consistent with those calculated from the observations, especially in northern East Asia. The model projections for the 21st century indicate statistically significant increasing T warm and decreasing T cold trends in extreme events over the region. Results obtained from historical archives and model simulations using our combined weather extreme indices suggest that northern East Asia will be subject to increased warm and dry extremes and the Korea Peninsula will experience more wet extremes. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0345-9 Authors Min-Hee Lee, Computational Science and Technology, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea Chang-Hoi Ho, Computational Science and Technology, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea Jinwon Kim, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA Chang-Keun Song, Climate Research Division, National Institute of Environmental Research, Incheon, South Korea Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Glacier hazards threaten societies in mountain regions worldwide. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose risks to exposed and vulnerable populations and can be linked in part to long-term post-Little Ice Age climate change because precariously dammed glacial lakes sometimes formed as glaciers generally retreated after the mid-1800s. This paper provides an interdisciplinary and historical analysis of 40 years of glacier hazard management on Mount Hualcán, at glacial Lake 513, and in the city of Carhuaz in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca mountain range. The case study examines attempted hazard zoning, glacial lake evolution and monitoring, and emergency engineering projects to drain Lake 513. It also analyzes the 11 April 2010 Hualcán rock-ice avalanche that triggered a Lake 513 GLOF; we offer both a scientific assessment of the possible role of temperature on slope stability and a GIS spatial analysis of human impacts. Qualitative historical analysis of glacier hazard management since 1970 allows us to identify and explain why certain actions and policies to reduce risk were implemented or omitted. We extrapolate these case-specific variables to generate a broader socio-environmental framework identifying factors that can facilitate or impede disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Facilitating factors are technical capacity, disaster events with visible hazards, institutional support, committed individuals, and international involvement. Impediments include divergent risk perceptions, imposed government policies, institutional instability, knowledge disparities, and invisible hazards. This framework emerges from an empirical analysis of a coupled social-ecological system and offers a holistic approach for integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-35 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0249-8 Authors Mark Carey, Robert D. Clark Honors College, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, USA Christian Huggel, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland Jeffrey Bury, Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA César Portocarrero, Unidad de Glaciología y Recursos Hídricos, Confraternidad Internacional Oeste #167, Huaraz, Peru Wilfried Haeberli, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    This study simulates the impacts of higher temperatures resulting from anthropogenic climate change on residential electricity consumption for California. Flexible temperature response functions are estimated by climate zone, which allow for differential effects of days in different temperature bins on households’ electricity consumption. The estimation uses a comprehensive household level dataset of electricity bills for California’s three investor-owned utilities (Pacific Gas and Electric, San Diego Gas and Electric, and Southern California Edison). The results suggest that the temperature response varies greatly across climate zones. Simulation results using a downscaled version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research global circulation model suggest that holding population constant, total consumption for the households considered may increase by up to 55% by the end of the century. The study further simulates the impacts of higher electricity prices and different scenarios of population growth. Finally, simulations were conducted consistent with higher adoption of cooling equipment in areas which are not yet saturated, as well as gains in efficiency due to aggressive energy efficiency policies. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0299-y Authors Maximilian Auffhammer, UC Berkeley ARE/IAS, 207 Giannini Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720-3310, USA Anin Aroonruengsawat, Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Using county-level data from the United States Department of Agriculture’s Census of Agriculture, this study evaluates the effect of weather and climate on agricultural profits in the State of California. The approach is to estimate revenue less variable production cost per acre as a function of land characteristics, weather realizations, and climate. This model is then used to evaluate the effect of two scenarios of climate change for the state of California over the coming century. The preferred estimates indicate that climate change is associated with a negative effect on aggregate agricultural profits by the end of the century. There are significant caveats to this result, including the lack of statistical precision, and keeping water supply and farm prices constant. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0322-3 Authors Olivier Deschenes, Department of Economics, University of California, 2127 North Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA Charles Kolstad, Department of Economics, University of California, 2127 North Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Changes in deep-water wave climate drive coastal morphologic change according to unique shoaling transformation patterns of waves over local shelf bathymetry. The Southern California Bight has a particularly complex shelf configuration, of tectonic origin, which poses a challenge to predictions of wave driven, morphologic coastal change. Northward shifts in cyclonic activity in the central Pacific Ocean, which may arise due to global climate change, will significantly alter the heights, periods, and directions of waves approaching the California coasts. In this paper, we present the results of a series of numerical experiments that explore the sensitivity of longshore sediment transport patterns to changes in deep water wave direction, for several wave height and period scenarios. We outline a numerical modeling procedure, which links a spectral wave transformation model (SWAN) with a calculation of gradients in potential longshore sediment transport rate (CGEM), to project magnitudes of potential coastal erosion and accretion, under proscribed deep water wave conditions. The sediment transport model employs two significant assumptions: (1) quantity of sediment movement is calculated for the transport-limited case, as opposed to supply-limited case, and (2) nearshore wave conditions used to evaluate transport are calculated at the 5-meter isobath, as opposed to the wave break point. To illustrate the sensitivity of the sedimentary system to changes in deep-water wave direction, we apply this modeling procedure to two sites that represent two different coastal exposures and bathymetric configurations. The Santa Barbara site, oriented with a roughly west-to-east trending coastline, provides an example where the behavior of the coastal erosional/accretional character is exacerbated by deep-water wave climate intensification. Where sheltered, an increase in wave height enhances accretion, and where exposed, increases in wave height and period enhance erosion. In contrast, all simulations run for the Torrey Pines site, oriented with a north-to-south trending coastline, resulted in erosion, the magnitude of which was strongly influenced by wave height and less so by wave period. At both sites, the absolute value of coastal accretion or erosion strongly increases with a shift from northwesterly to westerly waves. These results provide some examples of the potential outcomes, which may result from increases in cyclonic activity, El Niño frequency, or other changes in ocean storminess that may accompany global climate change. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0317-0 Authors Peter N. Adams, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA Douglas L. Inman, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA Jessica L. Lovering, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    In the next few decades, it is likely that California must face the challenge of coping with increased impacts from extreme events such as heat waves, wildfires, droughts, and floods. This study presents new projections of changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events in the future across climate models, emissions scenarios, and downscaling methods, and for each California county. Consistent with other projections, this study finds significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of both high maximum and high minimum temperature extremes in many areas. For example, the frequency of extreme temperatures currently estimated to occur once every 100 years is projected to increase by at least ten-fold in many regions of California, even under a moderate emissions scenario. Under a higher emissions scenario, these temperatures are projected to occur close to annually in most regions. Also, consistent with other projections, analyses of precipitation extremes fail to detect a significant signal of change, with inconsistent behavior when comparing simulations across different GCMs and different downscaling methods. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-28 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0311-6 Authors Michael D. Mastrandrea, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Y2E2, Mail Code 4205, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305, USA Claudia Tebaldi, Climate Central, 1 Palmer Square, Suite 330, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA Carolyn W. Snyder, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program on Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Y2E2 Suite 226, Stanford, CA 94305, USA Stephen H. Schneider, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Y2E2, Mail Code 4205, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    This paper explores the independent and combined effects of changes in temperature and runoff volume on California’s water supply and potential water management adaptations. Least-cost water supply system adaptation is explored for two climate scenarios: 1) warmer-drier conditions, and 2) warmer conditions without change in total runoff, using the CALVIN economic-engineering optimization model of California’s intertied water supply system for 2050 water demands. The warm-dry hydrology was developed from downscaled effects of the GFDL CM2.1 (A2 emissions scenario) global climate model for a 30-year period centered at 2085. The warm-only scenario was developed from the warm-dry hydrology, preserving its seasonal runoff shift while maintaining mean annual flows from the historical hydrology. This separates the runoff volume and temperature effects of climate change on water availability and management adaptations. A warmer climate alone reduces water deliveries and increases costs, but much less than a warmer-drier climate, if the water supply system is well managed. Climate changes result in major changes in reservoir operations, cyclic storage of groundwater, and hydropower operations. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0302-7 Authors Christina R. Connell-Buck, Hydrologic Sciences Graduate Group, University of California-Davis, One Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616, USA Josué Medellín-Azuara, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California-Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA Jay R. Lund, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California-Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA Kaveh Madani, Department of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    California is likely to experience increased coastal flooding and erosion caused by sea-level rise over the next century, affecting the state’s population, infrastructure, and environment. As part of a set of studies on climate change impacts to California, this paper analyzes the potential impacts from projected sea-level rise if no actions are taken to protect the coast (a “no-adaptation scenario”), focusing on impacts to the state’s population and infrastructure. Heberger et al. (2009) also covered effects on wetlands, costs of coastal defenses, and social and environmental justice related to sea-level rise. We analyzed the effect of a medium-high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 in IPCC 2000 ) and included updated projections of sea-level rise based on work by Rahmstorf (Science 315(5810): 368, 2007 ). Under this scenario, sea levels rise by 1.4 m by the year 2100, far exceeding historical observed water level increases. By the end of this century, coastal flooding would, under this scenario, threaten regions that currently are home to approximately 480,000 people and $100 billion worth of property. Among those especially vulnerable are large numbers of low-income people and communities of color. A wide range of critical infrastructure, such as roads, hospitals, schools, emergency facilities, wastewater treatment plants, and power plants will also be at risk. Sea-level rise will inevitably change the character of California’s coast; practices and policies should be put in place to mitigate the potentially costly and life-threatening impacts of sea-level rise. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0308-1 Authors Matthew Heberger, Pacific Institute, 654 13th Street, Oakland, CA 94612, USA Heather Cooley, Pacific Institute, 654 13th Street, Oakland, CA 94612, USA Pablo Herrera, Pacific Institute, 654 13th Street, Oakland, CA 94612, USA Peter H. Gleick, Pacific Institute, 654 13th Street, Oakland, CA 94612, USA Eli Moore, Pacific Institute, 654 13th Street, Oakland, CA 94612, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Projections of climate change are inherently uncertain, leading to considerable debate over suitable allowances for future changes such as sea-level rise (an ‘allowance’ is, in this context, the amount by which something, such as the height of coastal infrastructure, needs to be altered to cope with climate change). Words such as ‘plausible’ and ‘high-end’ abound, with little objective or statistically valid support. It is firstly shown that, in cases in which extreme events are modified by an uncertain change in the average (e.g. flooding caused by a rise in mean sea level), it is preferable to base future allowances on estimates of the expected frequency of exceedances rather than on the probability of at least one exceedance. A simple method of determining a future sea-level rise allowance is then derived, based on the projected rise in mean sea level and its uncertainty, and on the variability of present tides and storm surges (‘storm tides’). The method preserves the expected frequency of flooding events under a given projection of sea-level rise. It is assumed that the statistics of storm tides relative to mean sea level are unchanged. The method is demonstrated using the GESLA (Global Extreme Sea-Level Analysis) data set of roughly hourly sea levels, covering 198 sites over much of the globe. Two possible projections of sea-level rise are assumed for the 21st century: one based on the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a larger one based on research since the Fourth Assessment Report. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0332-1 Authors John Hunter, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Private Bag 80, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publishes periodical assessment reports informing policymakers and the public on issues relevant to the understanding of human induced climate change. The IPCC uses a set of 7 verbal descriptions of uncertainty, such as unlikely and very likely to convey the underlying imprecision of its forecasts and conclusions. We report results of an experiment comparing the effectiveness of communication using these words and their numerical counterparts. We show that the public consistently misinterprets the probabilistic statements in the IPCC report in a regressive fashion, and that there are large individual differences in the interpretation of these statements, which are associated with the respondents’ ideology and their views and beliefs about climate change issues. Most importantly our results suggest that using a dual (verbal—numerical) scale would be superior to the current mode of communication as it (a) increases the level of differentiation between the various terms, (b) increases the consistency of interpretation of these terms, and (c) increases the level of consistency with the IPCC guidelines. Most importantly, these positive effects are independent of the respondents’ ideological and environmental views. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0330-3 Authors David V. Budescu, Department of Psychology, Fordham University, 441 East Fordham Road, Bronx, NY 10458, USA Han-Hui Por, Department of Psychology, Fordham University, 441 East Fordham Road, Bronx, NY 10458, USA Stephen B. Broomell, Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Reference emission scenarios in the literature have been the target of criticisms that suggest they convey too optimistic views on spontaneous energy-GDP decoupling of emerging countries economies. This article focuses on the case of India. It explores the role of current suboptimalities of the Indian power sector (structural under-investment in the sector leading to capacity shortage, power cuts and low efficiency) on future energy-GDP decoupling. To do so, it uses a hybrid general equilibrium framework, in which these suboptimalities are explicitly introduced. The results highlight that whether the constraints on investments in the power sector persist or not leads to contrasted trends in energy-GDP decoupling and GHG emissions. Over the short-term, capital scarcity in the power sector constrains the development of energy-intensive activities and therefore leads to higher energy-GDP decoupling. But on the longer-term, constrains on the power sector capacity limits substitution from fossil fuels to electricity, which entails both a low energy-GDP decoupling and a constraint on GDP growth when oil prices are high. The alleviation of suboptimalities appears thus as an insurance policy towards future oil price increase. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0354-8 Authors Céline Guivarch, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement, Nogent-sur-Marne, France Sandrine Mathy, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement, Nogent-sur-Marne, France Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    The paper discusses long-term change in snowfall, rainfall and mixed precipitation viewed in conjunction with air temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter (December–February). In the study of contemporary climate change and its effect on the hydrological cycle it is useful to focus on winter precipitation forms. A 146-year secular observation series from Kraków, spanning the period 1863–2008, was used to extract data on the number of days with precipitation and on precipitation amount broken down by form. Statistically significant trends were found in total and mixed precipitation, but not in snowfall and rainfall. The climate warming effect has contributed to a material decrease in the snowfall to total winter precipitation ratio during the second half of the 20th c. The highest impact of air temperature was found in the wintertime variation in number of days with snowfall while the NAO had a significant influence on the frequency and amount of both rainfall and snowfall. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0352-x Authors Robert Twardosz, Department of Climatology, Jagiellonian University, ul. Gronostajowa 7, 30-387 Kraków, Poland Ewa Łupikasza, Department of Climatology, University of Silesia, Będzinska 60, 41-200 Sosnowiec, Poland Tadeusz Niedźwiedź, Department of Climatology, University of Silesia, Będzinska 60, 41-200 Sosnowiec, Poland Adam Walanus, Faculty of Geology, Geophysics and Environmental Protection, AGH University of Science and Technology, al. A. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Kraków, Poland Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    This essay examines the extent to which we can expect Indigenous Knowledge, understanding, and voices on climate change (‘Indigenous content’) to be captured in WGII of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), based on an analysis of chapter authorship. Reviewing the publishing history of 309 chapter authors (CAs) to WGII, we document 9 (2.9%) to have published on climate change and Indigenous populations and involved as authors in 6/30 chapters. Drawing upon recent scholarship highlighting how authorship affect structure and content of assessment reports, we argue that, unaddressed, this will affect the extent to which Indigenous content is examined and assessed. While it is too late to alter the structure of AR5, there are opportunities to prioritize the recruitment of contributing authors and reviewers with expertise on Indigenous issues, raise awareness among CAs on the characteristics of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability faced by Indigenous peoples, and highlight how Indigenous perspectives can help broaden our understanding of climate change and policy interventions. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0350-z Authors James D. Ford, Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada Will Vanderbilt, Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada Lea Berrang-Ford, Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    This paper explores what the San Diego region may look like in the year 2050 as projected changes in regional climate conditions take place. Focusing on interrelated issues of climate change, sea level rise, population growth, land use, and changes in water, energy, public health, wildfires, biodiversity, and habitat, the paper reviews the potential impacts of a changing climate by 2050 and makes recommendations for changes in planning processes at the local and regional levels to prepare for these impacts. The original research for this study was completed in 2008 by a team of 40 experts from the region including universities, nonprofit organizations, local governments, public sector agencies and private sector entities. This paper has now been updated with more recent research regarding climate change adaptation while preserving the integrity of the original research team’s work. The simulated impacts discussed in this study are based on regional projections of climate change generated by scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, employing three climate models and two emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The impacts are discussed in the context of significant regional growth expected during the period as well as an aging population base. Key issues explored in the report include potential inundation of six selected low-lying coastal areas in San Diego due to sea level rise, potential shortfalls in water deliveries, peak energy demand increases due to higher temperatures, growing risk of devastating wildfires, migrations of species in response to higher temperatures in an increasingly fragmented natural habitat, and public health issues associated with extreme temperature events. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-27 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0316-1 Authors Steven Messner, ENVIRON Corporation, Novato, CA, USA Sandra C. Miranda, Energized Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA Emily Young, The San Diego Foundation, San Diego, CA, USA Nicola Hedge, The San Diego Foundation, San Diego, CA, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    This study used numerical experiments to investigate two important concerns in simulating the cold season snowpack: the impact of the alterations of snow albedo due to anthropogenic aerosol deposition on snowpack and the treatment of snow physics using a multi-layer snow model. The snow albedo component considered qualitatively future changes in anthropogenic emissions and the subsequent increase or decrease of black carbon deposition on the Sierra Nevada snowpack by altering the prescribed snow albedo values. The alterations in the snow albedo primarily affect the snowpack via surface energy budget with little impact on precipitation. It was found that a decrease in snow albedo (by as little as 5–10% of the reference values) due to an increase in local emissions enhances snowmelt and runoff (by as much as 30–50%) in the early part of a cold season, resulting in reduced snowmelt-driven runoff (by as much as 30–50%) in the later part of the cold season, with the greatest impacts at higher elevations. An increase in snow albedo associated with reduced anthropogenic emissions results in the opposite effects. Thus, the most notable impact of the decrease in snow albedo is to enhance early-season snowmelt and to reduce late-season snowmelt, resulting in an adverse impact on warm season water resources in California. The timing of the sensitivity of snow water equivalent (SWE), snowmelt, and runoff vary systematically according to terrain elevation; as terrain elevation increases, the peak response of these fields occurs later in the cold season. The response of SWE and surface energy budget to the alterations in snow albedo found in this study shows that the effects of snow albedo on snowpack are further enhanced via local snow-albedo feedback. Results from this experiment suggest that a reduction in local emissions, which would increase snow albedo, could alleviate the early snowmelt and reduced runoff in late winter and early spring caused by global climate change, at least partially. The most serious uncertainties associated with this part of the study are a quantification of the relationship between the amount of black carbon deposition and snow albedo—a subject of future study. The comparison of the spring snowpack simulated with a single- and multi-layer snow model during the spring of 1998 shows that a more realistic treatment of snow physics in a multi-layer snow model could improve snowpack simulations, especially during spring when snow ablation is significant, or in conjunction with climate change projections. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0312-5 Authors D. Waliser, JPL/CALTECH, Pasadena, CA, USA J. Kim, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA Y. Xue, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA Y. Chao, JPL/CALTECH, Pasadena, CA, USA A. Eldering, JPL/CALTECH, Pasadena, CA, USA R. Fovell, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA A. Hall, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA Q. Li, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA K. N. Liou, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA J. McWilliams, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA S. Kapnick, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA R. Vasic, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA F. De Sale, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA Y. Yu, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Climate change under various emission scenarios is highly uncertain but is expected to affect agricultural crop production in the 21st century. However, we know very little about future changes in specific cropping systems under climate change in California’s Central Valley. Biogeochemical models are a useful tool to predict yields as it integrates crop growth, nutrient dynamics, hydrology, management and climate. For this study, we used DAYCENT to simulate changes in yield under A2 (medium-high) and B1 (low) emission scenarios. In total, 18 climate change predictions for the two scenarios were considered by applying different climate models and downscaling methods. The following crops were selected: alfalfa (hay), cotton, maize, winter wheat, tomato, and rice. Sunflower was also selected because it is commonly included in rotations with the other crops. By comparing the 11-year moving averages for the period 1956 to 2094, changes in yield were highly variable depending on the climate change scenarios across times. Furthermore, yield variance for the crops increased toward the end of the century due to the various degrees of climate model sensitivity. This shows that future climate, suggested by each of the emission scenarios, has a broad range of impacts on crop yields. Nevertheless, there was a general agreement in trends of yield changes. Under both A2 and B1, average modeled cotton, sunflower, and wheat yields decreased by approximately 2% to 9% by 2050 compared to the 2009 average yields. The other crops showed apparently no decreases in yield for the period 2010–2050. In comparison, all crop yields except for alfalfa significantly declined by 2094 under A2, but less under B1. Under A2, yields decreased in the following order: cotton (25%) 〉 sunflower (24%) 〉 wheat (14%) 〉 rice (10%) 〉 tomato and maize (9%). Under A2 compared to B1, the crop yield further decreased by a range of 2% (alfalfa) to 17% (cotton) by 2094, with more variation in yield change in the southern counties than the northern counties. The CO 2 fertilization effects were predicted to potentially offset these yield declines (〉30%) but may be overestimated. Our results suggest that climate change will decrease California crop yields in the long-term, except for alfalfa, unless greenhouse gas emissions and resulting climate change is curbed and/or adaptation of new management practices and improved cultivars occurs. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0305-4 Authors Juhwan Lee, Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA Steven De Gryze, Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA Johan Six, Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Climate change will affect the demand of many resources that households consume, including electricity and natural gas. Although price is considered an effective tool for controlling demand for many resources that households consume, including electricity and natural gas, there is disagreement about the exact magnitude of the price elasticity. Part of the problem is that demand is confounded by block pricing and the interrelated consumption of electricity and natural gas, which prevent easy estimation of price impacts. Block pricing suggests that the purchaser controls the marginal price of a commodity by the quantity purchased, turning price into an endogenous variable. Interrelated consumption indicates that demand for one resource is affected by the price of another. These complications have made difficult the estimation of the price elasticity of demand for resources and consequently the household-level impact of climate change, which will affect resource supplies. This paper evaluates statistical tools for estimating the joint demand for natural gas and electricity when both resources face a block price setting and develops estimates of own and cross price elasticity. We use data from the Federal Residential Energy Consumption Survey, along with utility price data, to estimate the household demand for electricity and natural gas in California as separate commodities. We then use a joint estimation procedure to evaluate the household demand for natural gas and electricity. Finally, we evaluate the degree to which block pricing and interrelated demand affect the price elasticity of demand for the two resources. The paper ends by noting the continuing uncertainty surrounding the use of price to manage household demand for electricity and natural gas. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0297-0 Authors Felipe Vásquez Lavín, Departamento de Economía and Núcleo Científico en Economía Ambiental y de Recursos Naturales, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile Larry Dale, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA Michael Hanemann, Economics Department, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Mithra Moezzi, Ghoulem Research, Mill Valley, CA, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Agriculture in the Central Valley of California, one of the USA’s main sources of fruits, nuts, and vegetables, is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts in the next 50 years. This interdisciplinary case study in Yolo County shows the urgency for building adaptation strategies to climate change. Climate change and the effects of greenhouse gas emissions are complex, and several of the county’s current crops will be less viable in 2050. The study uses a variety of methods to assemble information relevant to Yolo County’s agriculture, including literature reviews, models, geographic information system analysis, interviews with agency personnel, and a survey of farmers. Potential adaptation and mitigation responses by growers include changes in crop taxa, irrigation methods, fertilization practices, tillage practices, and land use. On a regional basis, planning must consider the vulnerability of agricultural production and the tradeoffs associated with diversified farmlands, drought, flooding of cropland, loss of habitat for wild species of concern, and urbanization. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0306-3 Authors L. E. Jackson, Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA S. M. Wheeler, Department of Environmental Design, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA A. D. Hollander, Information Center for the Environment, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA A. T. O’Geen, Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA B. S. Orlove, Division School of International and Public Affairs and Center for Research on Environmental Decisions, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA J. Six, Department of Plant Sciences, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA D. A. Sumner, Agricultural Issues Center, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA F. Santos-Martin, Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA J. B. Kramer, Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA W. R. Horwath, Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA R. E. Howitt, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA T. P. Tomich, Agricultural Sustainability Institute, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    California agriculture is driven by the interactions between technology, resources, and market demands. Future production is a balance between the rates of change in these variables and environmental factors including climate change. With tight statewide water supplies and agriculture being an important part of the California economy, quantifying the economic consequences of changes in these variables is important for addressing related policy questions. We estimate the economic effects of climate change on California crop farming by year 2050 using the Statewide Agricultural Production Model (SWAP). With climate warming, crop yields are expected to decline, production costs to increase, and water supplies to fall. These negative effects may be partially offset by higher crop prices and technological improvements. Results indicate that gross agricultural revenues across all regions are reduced under climate change, as is water usage. However, given the climate-induced reductions in water supply and crop yields, reductions in revenue are proportionally less due to shifting crop demands, technological change, and a shift to higher value less water intensive crops. Given the long time horizon required in this study, the results should not be considered a projection or forecast, but as a probable outcome of the interaction of several uncertain driving forces. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0314-3 Authors Josué Medellín-Azuara, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, One shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616, USA Richard E. Howitt, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, CA, USA Duncan J. MacEwan, University of California, Davis, CA, USA Jay R. Lund, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, One shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Beschreibung:    Ecosystem services play a crucial role in sustaining human well-being and economic viability. People benefit substantially from the delivery of ecosystem services, for which substitutes usually are costly or unavailable. Climate change will substantially alter or eliminate certain ecosystem services in the future. To better understand the consequences of climate change and to develop effective means of adapting to them, it is critical that we improve our understanding of the links between climate, ecosystem service production, and the economy. This study examines the impact of climate change on the terrestrial distribution and the subsequent production and value of two key ecosystem services in California: (1) carbon sequestration and (2) natural (i.e. non-irrigated) forage production for livestock. Under various scenarios of future climate change, we predict that the provision and value of ecosystem services decline under most, but not all, future greenhouse gas trajectories. The predicted changes would result in decreases in the economic output for the state and global economy and illustrate some of the hidden costs of climate change. Since existing information is insufficient to conduct impact analysis across most ecosystem services, a comprehensive research program focused on estimating the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services will be important for understanding, mitigating and adapting to future losses in ecosystem service production and the economic value they provide. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0313-4 Authors M. Rebecca Shaw, The Environmental Defense Fund, 123 Mission Street 28th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA Linwood Pendleton, The Nicholas Institute, Duke University, P.O. Box 90335, Durham, NC 27708, USA D. Richard Cameron, The Environmental Defense Fund, 123 Mission Street 28th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA Belinda Morris, Environmental Defense Fund, 1107 9th Street, suite 1070, Sacramento, CA 95814, USA Dominique Bachelet, USDA Forest Service, Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA Kirk Klausmeyer, The Environmental Defense Fund, 123 Mission Street 28th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA Jason MacKenzie, The Environmental Defense Fund, 123 Mission Street 28th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA David R. Conklin, Conservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, USA Gregrory N. Bratman, Stanford University, Stanford, USA James Lenihan, USDA Forest Service, Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA Erik Haunreiter, The Environmental Defense Fund, 123 Mission Street 28th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA Christopher Daly, Conservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, USA Patrick R. Roehrdanz, University of California at Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009