ALBERT

Description: Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4663-4693, 2015 Author(s): M. Wronna, R. Omira, and M. A. Baptista In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines – Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, runup and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite of Horseshoe and Marques Pombal fault as the worst case scenario. It governs the aggregate scenario with about 60 % and inundates an area of 3.5 km 2 .

Description: A numerical study of the early stages of a tropical cyclogenesis in relation to the MJO Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4919-4935, 2015 Author(s): J. Guerbette, M. Plu, C. Barthe, and J.-F. Mahfouf The role of an active phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the evolution of a mesoscale convective systems (MCS) leading to a tropical depression is investigated in the South-West Indian Ocean during the Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field experiment, with a numerical limited-area atmospheric model. A mesoscale vortex is followed in the low-troposphere from the initiation of the active MJO phase. It is shown that the interaction of the vortex with the Equatorial jet associated with the MJO plays an important role on the vortex development. As the vortex encounters the southern part of the low-level jet, it undergoes intensification that is explained by the barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the low-level jet to the vortex.

Description: The 9 September 2010 torrential rain and flash flood in the Dragone catchment, Atrani, Amalfi Coast (Southern Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4715-4751, 2015 Author(s): C. Violante, G. Braca, E. Esposito, and G. Tranfaglia In this paper we use a multi-hazard approach to analyse the 9 September 2010 flash-flood occurred in the Dragone basin, a 9 km 2 catchment located along the Amalfi rocky coastal range, Southern Italy. In this area, alluvial-fan-flooding is the most frequent and destructive geologic hazards since Roman time. Sudden torrent of waters (flash flood) are caused by high-intensity and very localized cloudbursts of short duration inducing slope erosion and sediment delivery from slope-to-stream. The elevated bed load transport produces fast-moving hyperconcentrated flows with significant catastrophic implications for communities living at stream mouth. The 9 September 2010 rainstorm event lasted 1 h with an intensity rainfall peak nearly to 120 mm h −1 . High topographic relief of the Amalfi coastal range and positive anomalies of the coastal waters conditioned the character of the convective system. Based on geological data and post-event field evidence and surveys, as well as homemade-videos, and eyewitness accounts the consequent flash-flood mobilized some 25 000 m 3 of materials with a total (water and sediment) peak flow of 80 m 3 s −1 . The estimated peak discharge of only clear water was about 65 m 3 s −1 . This leads to a sediment bulking factor of 1.2 that corresponds to a flow with velocities similar to those of water during a flood.

Description: Teaching disaster preparedness via a mobile device: a study of Auckland Civil Defence's Smartphone Application Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4555-4583, 2015 Author(s): O. Kulemeka This content analysis study examined whether a disaster preparedness education smartphone application created by a New Zealand city matches what experts say are effective ways of teaching disaster preparedness and teaching via an app. The app was assessed to ascertain if it excelled as a platform for learning, communicated effectively, addressed factors that can hinder people from preparing, and provided information for special needs populations. Results show that the app addressed most factors that hinder preparedness, provided information for some special needs populations, excelled as a platform for learning, and communicated effectively. The app's weaknesses include the fact that it lacked targeted information for low-income residents. The findings provide insight on how organizations can effectively use apps to teach disaster preparedness. The author passed away before the publication of this discussion paper. Therefore, a final revised paper is not foreseen.

Description: Inversion kinematics at deep-seated gravity slope deformations: a paleoseismological perspective Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4585-4617, 2015 Author(s): F. Pasquarè Mariotto and A. Tibaldi We compare data from three deep-seated gravity slope deformations (DSGSDs) where paleoseismological techniques were applied in artificial trenches. At all trenches, located in metamorphic rocks of the Italian Alps, there is evidence of extensional deformation given by normal movements along slip planes dipping downhill or uphill, and/or fissures, as expected in gravitational failure. However, we document and illustrate – with the aid of trenching – the evidence of reverse movements. The reverse slips occurred mostly along the same planes along which normal slip occurred, and produced drag folds in unconsolidated Holocene sediments as well as the superimposition of substrate rocks on Holocene sediments. Since trenches are located in different positions with respect to the slope affected by the DSGSD, it is possible to suggest that reverse slip might occur both at the toe portions of DSGSDs and in their central-upper portions. When the age relationships between the two deformation kinematics can be sorted out, they clearly indicate that reverse slips postdate normal ones. Our data suggest that during the development of long-lived DSGSDs, inversion kinematics may occur in different sectors of the unstable rock mass. The inversion is interpreted as either due to locking of the frontal blocks of a DSGSD, or the relative decrease in the rate of downward movement in the frontal blocks with respect to the rear blocks.

Description: Factors of subjective heat stress of urban citizens in contexts of everyday life Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4619-4661, 2015 Author(s): T. Kunz-Plapp, J. Hackenbruch, and J. W. Schipper Heat waves and the consequent heat stress of urban populations have a growing relevance in urban risk management and strategies of urban adaptation to climate change. In this context, social science studies on subjective heat stress of urban citizens are a new emerging field. To contribute to the understanding of subjective heat stress and its major determinants in a daily life perspective, we conducted a questionnaire survey with 323 respondents in Karlsruhe, Germany, after a heat wave in July and August 2013. Statistical data analysis showed that heat stress is an issue permeating everyday activities. It was found that the subjective heat stress at home is lower than at work and in general. Subjective heat stress in general, at home, and at work was determined by the health impairments experienced during the heat and the feeling of being helplessly exposed to the heat. For heat stress at home, additionally characteristics of the residential building and the built environment played a role. Although the rate of implemented coping measures was rather high, coping measures showed no uniform effect for the subjective heat stress. The results furthermore show that coping with heat is performed within the scopes of action in daily life. We conclude that in terms of urban adaptation strategies, further research is needed to understand how various processes of daily social (work) life enable or limit individual coping and adaptation capacities and that communication strategies are important for building capacities to better cope with future heat waves.

Description: InSAR observations of the 2009 Racha earthquake, the Republic Georgia Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4695-4714, 2015 Author(s): E. Nikolaeva and T. R. Walter Central Georgia is an area strongly affected by earthquake and landslide hazards. On 29 April 1991 a major earthquake ( M w = 7.0) struck the Racha region in the republic Georgia, followed by aftershocks and significant afterslip. The same region was hit by another major event ( M w = 6.0) on 7 September 2009. The aim of the study reported here was to utilize geodetic data as synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) to improve a knowledge about the spatial pattern of deformation due to the earthquakes in the seismic active central Georgia. There were no actual earthquake observations by InSAR in Georgia. We used the multi-temporal ALOS L-band InSAR data to produce interferograms spanning times before and after the 2009 earthquake. We detected a local uplift around 10 cm in the interferogram near the earthquake's epicenter whereas evidence of surface ruptures could not be found in the field along the active thrust fault. We simulated a deformation signal which could be created by the 2009 Racha earthquake on the basis of local seismic records and by using an elastic dislocation model. The observed InSAR deformation is in good agreement with our model. We compared our modeled fault surface of the September 2009 with the April 1991 Racha earthquake fault surfaces, and identify the same fault or a sub-parallel fault of the same system as the origin. The patch that was active in 2009 is just adjacent to the 1991 patch, indicating a possible mainly westward propagation direction, with important implications for future earthquake hazards.

Description: Risk for large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4753-4795, 2015 Author(s): I. Lehtonen, A. Venäläinen, M. Kämäräinen, H. Peltola, and H. Gregow The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on the number of large forest fires (over 10 ha fires) and burned area in Finland. For this purpose, we utilized a strong relationship between fire occurrence and the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) during 1996–2014. We used daily data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. Our results also reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase in forest-fire danger. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is more important cause of fires.

Description: Snow instability evaluation: calculating the skier-induced stress in a multi-layered snowpack Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4833-4869, 2015 Author(s): F. Monti, J. Gaume, A. van Herwijnen, and J. Schweizer The process of dry-snow slab avalanche formation can be divided into two phases: failure initiation and crack propagation. Several approaches tried to quantify slab avalanche release probability in terms of failure initiation based on shear stress and strength. Though it is known that both the properties of the weak layer and the slab play a major role in avalanche release, most previous approaches only considered slab properties in terms of slab depth, average density and skier penetration. For example, for the skier stability index, the additional stress (e.g. due to a skier) at the depth of the weak layer is calculated by assuming that the snow cover can be considered a semi-infinite, elastic half-space. We suggest a new approach based on a simplification of the multi-layered elasticity theory in order to easily compute the additional stress due to a skier at the depth of the weak layer taking into account the layering of the snow slab and the substratum. We first tested the proposed approach on simplified snow profiles, then on manually observed snow profiles including a stability test and, finally, on simulated snow profiles. Our simple approach well reproduced the additional stress obtained by finite element simulations for the simplified profiles – except that the sequence of layering in the slab cannot be replicated. Once implemented into the classical skier stability index and applied to manually observed snow profiles classified into different stability classes, the classification accuracy improved with the new approach. Finally, we implemented the refined skier stability index into the 1-D snow cover model SNOWPACK. For the two study cases presented in this paper, this approach showed promising results even though further verification is still needed. In the future, we intend to implement the proposed approach for describing skier-induced stress within a multi-layered snowpack into more complex models which take into account not only failure initiation but also crack propagation.

Description: Partnerships for affordable and equitable disaster insurance Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4797-4832, 2015 Author(s): J. Mysiak and C. D. Pérez-Blanco Extreme events are becoming more frequent and intense, inflating the economic damages and social hardship set-off by natural catastrophes. Amidst budgetary cuts, there is a growing concern on societies' ability to design solvent disaster recovery strategies, while addressing equity and affordability concerns. The participation of private sector along with public one through Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) has gained on importance as a means to address these seemingly conflicting objectives through the provision of (catastrophic) natural hazard insurance. This is the case of many OECD countries, notably some EU Member States such as the United Kingdom and Spain. The EU legislator has adapted to this new scenario and recently produced major reforms in the legislation and regulation that govern the framework in which PPPs for (catastrophic) natural hazard insurance develop. This paper has a dual objective: (1) review the complex legal background that rules the provision of insurance against natural catastrophes in the EU after these major reforms, (2) assess the implications of the reforms and offer concise Policy Guiding Principles.

Description: Integrated statistical modelling of spatial landslide probability Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 5677-5715, 2015 Author(s): M. Mergili and H.-J. Chu Statistical methods are commonly employed to estimate spatial probabilities of landslide release at the catchment or regional scale. Travel distances and impact areas are often computed by means of conceptual mass point models. The present work introduces a fully automated procedure extending and combining both concepts to compute an integrated spatial landslide probability: (i) the landslide inventory is subset into release and deposition zones. (ii) We employ a simple statistical approach to estimate the pixel-based landslide release probability. (iii) We use the cumulative probability density function of the angle of reach of the observed landslide pixels to assign an impact probability to each pixel. (iv) We introduce the zonal probability i.e. the spatial probability that at least one landslide pixel occurs within a zone of defined size. We quantify this relationship by a set of empirical curves. (v) The integrated spatial landslide probability is defined as the maximum of the release probability and the product of the impact probability and the zonal release probability relevant for each pixel. We demonstrate the approach with a 637 km 2 study area in southern Taiwan, using an inventory of 1399 landslides triggered by the typhoon Morakot in 2009. We observe that (i) the average integrated spatial landslide probability over the entire study area corresponds reasonably well to the fraction of the observed landside area; (ii) the model performs moderately well in predicting the observed spatial landslide distribution; (iii) the size of the release zone (or any other zone of spatial aggregation) influences the integrated spatial landslide probability to a much higher degree than the pixel-based release probability; (iv) removing the largest landslides from the analysis leads to an enhanced model performance.

Description: Atmospheric circulation patterns, cloud-to-ground lightning, and locally intense convective rainfall associated with debris flow initiation in the Dolomite Alps of northeastern Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 5717-5775, 2015 Author(s): S. J. Underwood, M. D. Schultz, M. Berti, C. Gregoretti, A. Simoni, T. L. Mote, and A. M. Saylor The Dolomite Alps of northeastern Italy experience debris flows with great frequency during the summer months. An ample supply of unconsolidated material on steep slopes and a summer season climate regime characterized by recurrent thunderstorms combine to produce an abundance of these destructive hydrogeologic events. In the past debris flow events have been studied primarily in the context of their geologic and geomorphic characteristics. The atmospheric contribution to these mass wasting events has been limited to recording rainfall and developing intensity thresholds for debris mobilization. This study aims to expand the examination of atmospheric processes that preceded both locally intense convective rainfall (LICR) and debris flows in the Dolomite region. 500 hPa pressure level plots of geopotential heights were constructed for a period of three days prior to debris flow events to gain insight into the synoptic scale processes which provide an environment conducive to LICR in the Dolomites. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash data recorded at the meso-scale were incorporated to assess the convective environment proximal to debris flow source regions. Twelve events were analyzed and from this analysis three common synoptic scale circulation patterns were identified. Evaluation of CG flashes at smaller spatial and temporal scales illustrated that convective processes vary in their production of CG flashes (total number) and the spatial distribution of flashes can also be quite different between events over longer periods. During the 60 min interval immediately preceding debris flow a majority of cases exhibited spatial and temporal collocation of LICR and CG flashes. Also a number of CG flash parameters were found to be significantly correlated to rainfall intensity prior to debris flow initiation.

Description: Best index related to the shoreline dynamics during a storm: the case of Jesolo beach Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 7089-7134, 2015 Author(s): R. Archetti, A. Paci, S. Carniel, and D. Bonaldo The paper presents an application of shoreline monitoring aimed to understand the response of a beach to single storms and to identify its typical behaviour, in order to be able to predict shoreline changes and to properly plan the defence of the shore zone. On the study area, in Jesolo beach (Nothern Adriatic sea, Italy), a video monitoring station and an acoustic wave and current profiler were installed in spring 2013, recording respectively images and hydrodynamic data. The site lacks of previous detailed hydrodynamic and morphodynamics data. Variations in the shoreline were quantified in combination with available nearshore wave conditions, making it possible to analyse a relationship between the shoreline displacement and the wave features. Results denote characteristic patterns of beach response to storm events, and highlight the importance of improving beach protection in this zone, notwithstanding the many interventions experimented in the last decades. A total of 31 independent storm events were selected during the period October 2013–October 2014, and for each of them synthetic indexes based on storm duration, energy and maximum wave height were developed and estimated. It was found that the mean shoreline displacements during a storm are well correlated with the total wave energy during the considered storm by an empirical power law equation. A sub-selection of storms on beach protected by artificial dunes (in winter season) was examined in detail; we can conclude that the extensive adoption of artificial dunes in the study area was useful in the past also to reduce shoreline retreat during the storm. This type of interventions can sometimes contribute to prolonged overall stability not only in the replenished zone but also in down drift areas. The implemented methodology, which confirms to be economically attractive if compared to more traditional monitoring systems, proves to be a valuable system to monitor beach erosive processes and provide detailed indications on how to better plan beach maintenance activities. The presented methodology and the proposed results can therefore be used as a basis for improving the collaboration between coastal scientists and managers to solve beach erosion problems, in a location where data are seldom.

Description: Evaluation of the initial stage of the reactivated Cotopaxi volcano – analysis of the first ejected fine-grained material Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 6947-6976, 2015 Author(s): T. Toulkeridis, C. R. Arroyo, M. Cruz D'Howitt, A. Debut, A. V. Vaca, L. Cumbal, F. Mato, and E. Aguilera Fine-grained volcanic samples were collected at different locations near the Cotopaxi volcano on the same day of its reactivation and some days afterwards in August 2015. The wind-directions charged with such materials have been determined and compared with the existing data-base allowing preventive measures about local warning. The obtained data yielded the less expected wind-directions and therefore ash precipitation in usually less affected areas towards the northern and eastern side of Cotopaxi volcano. The collected samples were studied basically for their morphology, content in minerals and rock fragments as well as the chemical composition. The results obtained from this study allowed to identify and classify the origin of the expelled material being hydroclasts of andesites and dacites with rare appearances of rhyodacites and associated regular as well as accessory minerals all being present in the conduct and crater forming part of previous eruptive activities of the volcano. A further evaluation has been performed to determine the activity stage of the volcanic behavior. The resulting interpretation appears to point to a volcanic behavior a more frequent sporadic event with a relatively low probability of lahar generation rather than any other known destructive phase, which includes a less-frequent but tremendously more catastrophic scenario.

Description: The quantitative estimation of the vulnerability of brick and concrete building impacted by debris flow Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 5015-5044, 2015 Author(s): J. Zhang, Z. X. Guo, D. Wang, and H. Qian There is little historic data about the vulnerability of the damage elements in debris flow disaster in China. Therefore, it is difficult to estimate the vulnerability of debris flow quantitatively. This paper was devoted to the research of the vulnerability of brick and concrete building impacted by debris flow which widely existed in affected area. Under two assumptions, several prototype walls of brick and concrete were constructed to simulate the damaged structures in debris flow while the iron spheres were taken as the substitute of debris flow. The failure criterion of brick and concrete building was proposed with referring to the structure standards (brick and concrete) and the damage pattern in debris flow. The quantitatively estimation of vulnerability of brick and concrete building was finally established based on Fuzzy mathematics and the proposed failure criterion. The results show that the maximum impact bending moment is the best fit to be the disaster-causing factor in vulnerability curve and formula. The experiments in this paper is the preliminary research on the vulnerability of the element impacted by debris flow. The method and conclusion will be useful for the quantitative estimation of the vulnerability in debris flow and also can be referred in other types of the vulnerable elements research.

Description: Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: method development and application to Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 4967-5013, 2015 Author(s): H. Apel, O. M. Trepat, N. N. Hung, D. T. Chinh, B. Merz, and N. V. Dung Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas, and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims at the analysis of fluvial and pluvial flood hazard individually, but also at developing a method for the analysis of combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. Fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. Pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data, and a stochastic rain storm generator. Inundation was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphical Processor Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. All hazards – fluvial, pluvial and combined – were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation considering the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and ways for their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

Description: Determination of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides by a probabilistic and empirical method Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 3487-3508, 2015 Author(s): J. Huang, N. P. Ju, Y. J. Liao, and D. D. Liu Rainfall-induced landslides not only cause property loss, but also kill and injure large numbers of people every year in mountainous areas in China. These losses and casualties may be avoided to some extent with rainfall threshold values used in an early warning system at a regional scale for the occurrence of landslides. However, the limited availability of data always causes difficulties. In this paper we present a method to calculate rainfall threshold values with limited data sets for the two rainfall parameters: maximum hourly rainfall intensity and accumulated precipitation. The method has been applied to the Huangshan region, in Anhui Province, China. Four early warning levels (Zero, Outlook, Attention, and Warning) have been adopted and the corresponding rainfall threshold values have been defined by probability lines. A validation procedure showed that this method can significantly enhance the effectiveness of a warning system, and finally reduce the risk from shallow landslides in mountainous regions.

Description: Results comparison and model validation for flood loss functions in Australian geographical conditions Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 3823-3860, 2015 Author(s): R. Hasanzadeh Nafari, T. Ngo, and W. Lehman Rapid urbanisation, climate change and unsustainable developments are increasing the risk of floods, namely flood frequency and intensity. Flood is a frequent natural hazard that has significant financial consequences for Australia. The emergency response system in Australia is very successful and has saved many lives over the years. However, the preparedness for natural disaster impacts in terms of loss reduction and damage mitigation has been less successful. This study aims to quantify the direct physical damage to residential structures that are prone to flood phenomena in Australia. In this paper, the physical consequences of two floods from Queensland have been simulated, and the results have been compared with the performance of two selected methodologies and one newly derived model. Based on this analysis, the adaptability and applicability of the selected methodologies will be assessed in terms of Australian geographical conditions. Results obtained from the new empirically-based function and non-adapted methodologies indicate that it is apparent that the precision of flood damage models are strongly dependent on selected stage damage curves, and flood damage estimation without model validation results in inaccurate prediction of losses. Therefore, it is very important to be aware of the associated uncertainties in flood risk assessment, especially if models have not been adapted with real damage data.

Description: On the inclusion of GPS precipitable water vapour in the nowcasting of rainfall Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 3861-3895, 2015 Author(s): P. Benevides, J. Catalao, and P. M. A. Miranda The temporal behaviour of Precipitable Water Vapour (PWV) retrieved from GPS delay data is analysed in a number of case studies of intense precipitation in the Lisbon area, in the period 2010–2012, and in a continuous annual cycle of 2012 observations. Such behaviour is found to correlate positively with the probability of precipitation, especially in cases of severe rainfall. The evolution of the GPS PWV in a few stations is analysed by a least-squares fitting of a broken line tendency, made by a temporal sequence of ascents and descents over the data. It is found that most severe rainfall event occurs in descending trends after a long ascending period, and that the most intense events occur after steep ascents in PWV. A simple algorithm, forecasting rain in the 6 h after a steep ascent of the GPS PWV in a single station is found to produce reasonable forecasts of the occurrence of precipitation in the nearby region, without significant misses in what concerns larger rain events, but with a substantial amount of false alarms. It is suggested that this method could be improved by the analysis of 2-D or 3-D time varying GPS PWV fields, or by its joint use with other meteorological data relevant to nowcast precipitation.

Description: TITAN2F: a pseudo-3-D model of 2-phase debris flows Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 3789-3822, 2015 Author(s): G. Córdoba, M. F. Sheridan, and E. B. Pitman Debris flows, avalanches, landslides, and other geophysical mass flows can contain O (10 6 –10 10 ) m 3 or more of material. These flows commonly consist of mixture of soil and rocks with a significant quantity of interstitial fluid. They can be tens of meters deep, and their runouts can extend many kilometers. The complicated rheology of such a mixture challenges every constitutive model that can reasonably be applied; the range of length and timescales involved in such mass flows challenges the computational capabilities of existing systems.This paper extends recent efforts to develop a depth averaged "thin layer" model for geophysical mass flows that contain a mixture of solid material and fluid. Concepts from the engineering community are integrated with phenomenological findings in geo-science, resulting in a theory that accounts for the principal solid and fluid forces as well as interactions between the phases, across a wide range of solid volume fraction. A principal contribution here is to present drag and phase interaction terms that comport with the literature in geo-sciences. The program predicts the evolution of the concentration and dynamic pressure. The theory is validated with with data from one dimensional dam break solutions and it is verified with data from artificial channel experiments.

Description: Development of high-resolution multi-scale modelling system for simulation of coastal-fluvial urban flooding Agnieszka Indiana Olbert, Joanne Comer, Stephen Nash, and Michael Hartnett Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-238,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) A novel nested flood model (MSN_Flood) is applied to simulate complex coastal-fluvial urban flooding in order to critically examine the model's capability to forecast evolution of urban inundation. The model demonstrates high accuracy of outputs without incurring the computational expense of high spatial resolution over the entire model domain. MSN_Flood provides full characteristics of water levels and flow regimes necessary for flood hazard identification and flood risk assessment.

Description: Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results Lara Mani, Paul D. Cole, and Iain Stewart Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1673-1689, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016, 2016 Here, we aim to better understand the potential for using video games in volcanic hazard education with at-risk communities. A study using a bespoke-designed video game – St. Vincent's Volcano – was trialled on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent in 2015. Preliminary data analysis demonstrates 94 % of study participants had an improved knowledge of volcanic hazards after playing the game, leading us to conclude that video games could be a logical progression for education and outreach activities.

Description: Debris flow impact estimation on a rigid barrier Federico Vagnon and Andrea Segalini Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1691-1697, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1691-2016, 2016 This study has the aim of reviewing the dynamics of debris flow impact against rigid structures and providing a new simple formulation to predict peak thrust. The proposed equation differs from other formulations because it takes into account flow characteristics, material properties, and barrier dimensions. The developed model is sufficiently capable of predicting measured force during the laboratory tests.

Description: Meteorological factors driven glacial till changing and the associated periglacial debris flows in Tianmo Valley, southeast Tibetan Plateau Mingfeng Deng, Ningsheng Chen, and Mei Liu Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-251,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Initiation of deris flows in Tianmo valley shows annual temperature spiked and glacier retreat quickly before the three debris flows, while they did not occur when glacier retreat is sharpest, resulting from the bared glacial till is frozen as the melting of internal ice lags behind glacial retreat. The activity of the glacial till can be enhanced by prolonged high air temperature. Finally, either rainfall or continuous percolation of ice ablation water flows can generate periglacial debris flows.

Description: Analysis of slope processes in the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain) by means of Cross Correlation Function applied to high frequency monitoring data Marco Mulas, Jordi Corominas, Alessandro Corsini, and Jose Moya Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-253,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) In this work, the Cross-Correlation Function is used in order to quantitatively investigate the time-lagged correlation between high frequency monitoring data on rainfall, piezometric and displacement with the objective to evidence hydro-mechanical processes in the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain). The analysis highlighted and constrained in time a dual triggering mechanism in which factors controlling movement change from the upper to the lower part of the landslide.

Description: Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain Jesica Tamara Castillo-Rodríguez, Ignacio Escuder-Bueno, Sara Perales-Momparler, and Juan Ramón Porta-Sancho Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1699-1718, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1699-2016, 2016 This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative flood risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The conducted research work aims at providing a framework for local flood risk analysis and to support risk-informed decision-making (e.g. urban planning and development, flood risk management, civil protection). This article shows the added value of a risk-informed perspective, applied to a real case study in Spain.

Description: Lightning risk assessment at a high spatial resolution using the resident sub-district scale: A case study in Beijing metropolitan areas Hai Bo Hu and Jing Xiao Li Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-231,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Lightning risk indexes identifying the potential number of dangerous lightning events (NDLEs) and ground sensitivity to lightning in resident sub-districts of Beijing metropolitan areas have been unprecedentedly estimated on a 5 m resolution grid. The gridded cloud to ground (CG) lightning stroke density was used in the NDLE calculation, on account of multiple contacts formed by CG lightning flash multiplicity. Meanwhile, in the NDLE estimates, the critical CG stroke gridded densities derived from the lightning location system (LLS) data were corrected for network detection efficiency (DE). This case study on resident sub-district indicates that the site-specific sensitivity to lightning, which is determined by the terrain factors related to lightning attachment, as well as lightning rod effects induced by nearby structures, differs greatly across types of underlying ground areas. The discrepancy of the NDLE which is the numerical product of sensitivity and CG stroke density, is predominated by the sensitivity on account of the relatively stationary CG stroke density in a resident sub-district scale. Conclusively, the visualization of lightning risk sensitivity and NDLE discrepancy in parts of a resident sub-district at high spatial resolution makes it convenient in risk reduction and risk control for lightning risk management.

Description: VISIR: technological infrastructure of an operational service for safe and efficient navigation in the Mediterranean Sea Gianandrea Mannarini, Giuseppe Turrisi, Alessandro D'Anca, Mario Scalas, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Francesco Palermo, Ivano Carluccio, Matteo Scuro, Sergio Cretì, Rita Lecci, Paola Nassisi, and Luca Tedesco Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1791-1806, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1791-2016, 2016 Safety and efficiency of navigation can be enhanced through a better situational awareness at sea. We designed and realized an operational infrastructure for providing the navigators with optimal routes through various devices: PC, tablets, and smartphones. Sea-state and wind forecasts are used as inputs. Both motor- and sailboat routes are addressed by VISIR.

Description: The unrest of the San Miguel volcano (El Salvador, Central America): installation of the monitoring network and observed volcano-tectonic ground deformation Alessandro Bonforte, Douglas Antonio Hernandez, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Louis Handal, Cecilia Polío, Salvatore Rapisarda, and Piergiorgio Scarlato Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1755-1769, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1755-2016, 2016 In this paper, we present the work done during an international cooperation between Italy and El Salvador, for implementing the multiparametric monitoring of the San Miguel volcano in El Salvador after its sudden unrest. In particular, the aim of this paper is to show and describe the installed geodetic network and to show, comment and interpret the very first detailed ground deformation data obtained on this volcano during an unrest period, useful for characterizing its unknown dynamics.

Description: Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators: application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards Maria Papathoma-Köhle Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1771-1790, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1771-2016, 2016 Two established methods for assessing the physical vulnerability of buildings to natural hazards (vulnerability indicators and vulnerability curves) are compared after beind applied at the same case study. The case study area is located in South Tyrol (Italy) and it is subject to debris flow hazard. The results indicate that both methods have advantages and disadvantages and should be used in combination rather than in isolation by practitioners.

Description: An examination of land use impacts of sea level rise induced flooding Jie Song, Xinyu Fu, Yue Gu, Yujun Deng, and Zhong-Ren Peng Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-157,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) We present a joint model which couples urban growth dynamics with coastal hazards. We use the SLEUTH platform to investigate three urban growth scenarios under different land use policies. We found that compact development may contribute to the region's vulnerability to sea level rise induced flooding, and that strict land development regulations may greatly mitigate such vulnerability. The findings highlight the importance of land use simulations in formulating coastal management plans.

Description: Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany" Fred Fokko Hattermann, Shaochun Huang, Olaf Burghoff, Peter Hoffmann, and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1617-1622, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1617-2016, 2016 We report that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in Germany in a future warmer climate. The general significance of the study is supported by the fact that the outcome of an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) was used as a climate driver for a hydrological model considering more than 3000 river basins in Germany.

Description: Mangrove forest against dyke-break-induced tsunami on rapidly subsiding coasts Hiroshi Takagi, Takahito Mikami, Daisuke Fujii, Miguel Esteban, and Shota Kurobe Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1629-1638, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1629-2016, 2016 Thin coastal dykes found in developing countries may suddenly collapse due to land subsidence, material ageing, earthquakes, a collision with vessels, etc. Such a failure could trigger a dyke-break-induced tsunami. To analyse the potential consequences of such a flooding event, a hydrodynamic model was created using the data from the authors' field surveys of a vulnerable coastal community in Jakarta. The countermeasure of using mangrove forest is also proposed to mitigate violent floods.

Description: Comparison and validation of global and regional ocean forecasting systems for the South China Sea Xueming Zhu, Hui Wang, Guimei Liu, Charly Régnier, Xiaodi Kuang, Dakui Wang, Shihe Ren, Zhiyou Jing, and Marie Drévillon Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1639-1655, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1639-2016, 2016 This paper examined the performances of two operational ocean forecasting systems, Mercator Océan in France and SCSOFS in China, based on observed satellite and in situ data obtained in 2012. The comparison and validation are focused on the ocean circulations, the structures of temperature and salinity, and some mesoscale activities in the South China Sea. Finally, some recommendations have been proposed for both systems to improve their performances in the near future.

Description: Partial reactivation of a huge deep-seated ancient rock slide: recognition, formation mechanism, and stability Minggao Tang, Qiang Xu, Yusheng Li, Runqiu Huang, Niek Rengers, and Xing Zhu Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1719-1735, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1719-2016, 2016 An important argument for the conclusion is the recognition of a regional compressive tectonic stress field in this area, which cannot lead to the formation of a fault graben, which needs a tensional tectonic stress field. Moreover, numerous unique geological features, sliding marks, and other relics of the ancient slide have been discovered in the field. A centrifuge model test shows that a deformation and failure process of "creep–crack–cut" and a type of "successive rotational rock slide" have occurred.

Description: What if the 25 October 2011 event that struck Cinque Terre (Liguria) had happened in Genoa, Italy? Flooding scenarios, hazard mapping and damage estimation Francesco Silvestro, Nicola Rebora, Lauro Rossi, Daniele Dolia, Simone Gabellani, Flavio Pignone, Eva Trasforini, Roberto Rudari, Silvia De Angeli, and Cristiano Masciulli Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1737-1753, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1737-2016, 2016 During the autumn of 2011 two catastrophic, very intense rainfall events affected two different parts of the Liguria Region of Italy causing various flash floods. The first occurred in October and the second at the beginning of November. Both the events were characterized by very high rainfall intensities (〉 100 mm h −1 ) that persisted on a small portion of territory causing local huge rainfall accumulations (〉 400 mm 6 h −1 ). Two main considerations were made in order to set up this work. The first consideration is that various studies demonstrated that the two events had a similar genesis and similar triggering elements. The second very evident and coarse concern is that two main elements are needed to have a flash flood: a very intense and localized rainfall event and a catchment (or a group of catchments) to be affected. Starting from these assumptions we did the exercise of mixing the two flash flood ingredients by putting the rainfall field of the first event on the main catchment struck by the second event, which has its mouth in the biggest city of the Liguria Region: Genoa. A complete framework was set up to quantitatively carry out a “what if” experiment with the aim of evaluating the possible damages associated with this event. A probabilistic rainfall downscaling model was used to generate possible rainfall scenarios maintaining the main characteristics of the observed rainfall fields while a hydrological model transformed these rainfall scenarios in streamflow scenarios. A subset of streamflow scenarios is then used as input to a 2-D hydraulic model to estimate the hazard maps, and finally a proper methodology is applied for damage estimation. This leads to the estimation of the potential economic losses and of the risk level for the people that stay in the affected area. The results are interesting, surprising and in a way worrying: a rare but not impossible event (it occurred about 50 km away from Genoa) would have caused huge damages estimated between 120 and EUR 230 million for the affected part of the city of Genoa, Italy, and more than 17 000 potentially affected people.

Description: Hydrodynamic modelling of coastal seas: the role of tidal dynamics in the Messina Strait, Western Mediterranean Sea Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Antonio Olita, Leopoldo Fazioli, Alberto Ribotti, Matteo Sinerchia, Costanza Tedesco, and Roberto Sorgente Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1553-1569, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1553-2016, 2016 This work explored the importance of considering the tidal dynamics when modelling the general circulation in the Messina Strait, a narrow passage connecting the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian Sea sub-basins in the Western Mediterranean Sea. The results highlight that tidal dynamics deeply impact the reproduction of the instantaneous and residual circulation pattern, waters thermohaline properties and transport dynamics both inside the Messina Strait and in the surrounding coastal and open waters.

Description: Review article: Potential application of surface methods for the monitoring of organic matter dynamics in marine systems Galja Pletikapić and Nadica Ivošević DeNardis Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-178,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) We present the potential of non-invasive surface methods, the electrochemical method applied with atomic force microscopy imaging (AFM), and its application for monitoring needs undertaken in the Adriatic sea. Electrochemical approach enables simple and fast analysis of a large number of raw seawater samples due to the simultaneous differentiation of organic constituents in seawater. AFM allows direct visualization and structural organization of marine organic matter at nanometer scales.

Description: Heavy snow loads in Finnish forests respond regionally asymmetrically to projected climate change Ilari Lehtonen, Matti Kämäräinen, Hilppa Gregow, Ari Venäläinen, and Heli Peltola Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-184,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) We studied the impact of projected climate change on the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland. Although winters are projected to become milder over the whole of Finland, our results suggest than in eastern and northern Finland the risk may increase while in southern and western parts of the country it is projected to decrease. This indicates that there is increasing need to consider the potential of snow damage in forest management in eastern and northern Finland.

Description: GPS-derived ground deformation (2005–2014) within the Gulf of Mexico region referred to a stable Gulf of Mexico reference frame Jiangbo Yu and Guoquan Wang Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1583-1602, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1583-2016, 2016 The study establishes the first local reference frame for the Gulf of Mexico region using the observations from 13 GNSS sites. The root mean square (RMS) of the velocities of the 13 reference stations achieves 0.2 mm yr −1 in the horizontal and 0.3 mm yr −1 in the vertical directions. Land subsidence, faulting, and salt dome activities in the Houston region, Mexico City, and the southeastern Louisiana region are discussed and compared.

Description: GIS analysis of effects of future Baltic sea level rise on the island of Gotland, Sweden Karin Ebert, Karin Ekstedt, and Jerker Jarsjö Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1571-1582, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1571-2016, 2016 Future sea level rise is inevitable. We investigate the effects of 2 m sea level rise on the island of Gotland, Sweden. In a multi-criteria analysis we analyze the quantity of infrastructure that will be inundated, and the effect of saltwater intrusion in wells. Almost 100 km 2 (3 %) of Gotland's land area will be inundated. Important touristic and nature values will be strongest affected. Well salinization will greatly increase. Administrative planning is needed to prepare for changes.

Description: TESSA: design and implementation of a platform for Situational Sea Awareness M. Scalas, P. Marra, L. Tedesco, R. Quarta, E. Cantoro, A. Tumolo, D. Rollo, and M. Spagnulo Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-166,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) This article describes the architecture of Sea Situational Awareness (SSA) platform, a major asset within "TESSA", an industrial research project funded by the Italian Ministry of Education and Research. The main aim of the platform is to collect, transform and provide forecast and observational data as information suitable for delivery across a variety of channels, like web and mobile; specifically, the ability to produce and provide forecast information suitable for creating SSA-enabled applications has been a critical driving factor when designing and evolving the whole architecture. Thus, starting from functional and performance requirements, the platform architecture is described in terms of its main building blocks and flows among them: front-end components that support end-user applications and map and data analysis components that allow for serving maps and querying data. Focus is directed to key aspects and decisions about the main issues faced, like interoperability, scalability, efficiency and adaptability, but it also considers insights about future works in this and similarly related subjects. Some analysis results are also provided in order to better characterize critical issues and related solutions.

Description: The catastrophic landfill flowslide at Hongao dumpsite on December 20, 2015 in Shenzhen, China Qiang Xu, Dalei Peng, Weile Li, Xiujun Dong, Wei Hu, Minggao Tang, and Fangzhou Liu Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-196,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) The article aims at presenting the first-hand dataset and results from the field investigation, laboratory test, and numerical analysis for the flowslide occurred on December 20, 2015, in Shenzhen, China; A devastating event resulted in significant human and property losses. The article concluded that the landfill stagnated groundwater flow and resulted in high water pressure due to the absence of drainage system with both disposal rate and amount exceeding the maximum design capacity.

Description: Hydrodynamic characterization of past flash-flood events and their associated hazards from dendrogeomorphological evidence in Caldera de Taburiente National Park (Canary Islands, Spain) Julio Garrote, Andrés Diez-Herrero, José M. Bodoque, María A. Perucha, Pablo Mayer, and Mar Genova Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-206,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) The paper shows a study assessing different flooding scenarios based on the height of scars in trees as indicators for peak discharge estimation in an ungauged fluvial basin with sand and gravel riverbed. The use of scars on trees together with the combined use of 2D hydraulic model and LIDAR topographic data, has allowed a better peak discharge estimation of January, 11–13, 1997 flash flood and its related hazards, than estimation from rainfall data. This could improve flooding risk mapping.

Description: Brief communication "Loss and Damage from a catastrophic landslide in Nepal" Kees van der Geest and Markus Schindler Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-210,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) In August 2014, a major landslide struck in a densely populated district 80 km northeast of Nepal's capital Kathmandu, in Sindhupalchok District. This study combines evidence from surveyes and intereviews to assess impacts, and preventive and coping measures taken. The impacts relative to annual income show that the poor lost up to 14 times their annual income, as opposed to 3 times for the non-poor. The implications of these findings for discussions surrounding loss and damage are discussed.

Description: Stand-Alone Tsunami Alarm Equipment Akio Katsumata, Yutaka Hayashi, Kazuki Miyaoka, Hiroaki Tsushima, Toshitaka Baba, Patricio A. Catalán, Cecilia Zelaya, Felipe Riquelme Vasquez, Rodrigo Sanchez-Olavarria, and Sergio Barrientos Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-164,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) One of the quickest means of tsunami evacuation is transfer to higher ground soon after strong and long ground-shaking. Strong ground motion means that the hypocenter of the event is close to the current location, and long ground-shaking means that the size of the earthquake is large. We investigated the possibility to apply this to tsunami hazard alarm using single-site observation of ground shaking.

Description: SeaConditions: a web and mobile service for safer professional and recreational activities in the Mediterranean Sea G. Coppini, P. Marra, R. Lecci, N. Pinardi, S. Cretì, M. Scalas, L. Tedesco, A. D'Anca, L. Fazioli, A. Olita, G. Turrisi, C. Palazzo, G. Aloisio, S. Fiore, A. Bonaduce, Y. Kumar, S. A. Ciliberti, I. Federico, G. Mannarini, P. Agostini, R. Bonarelli, S. Martinelli, G. Verri, L. Lusito, D. Rollo, A. Cavallo, A. Tumolo, T. Monacizzo, M. Spagnulo, R. Sorgente, A. Cucco, G. Quattrocchi, M. Tonani, M. Drudi, L. Panzera, A. Navarra, and G. Negro Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-176,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) SeaCondition aims to support the users providing the environmental information in due time and with the adequate accuracy in the marine and coastal environment enforcing users' Sea Situational Awareness. SeaConditions consists of a web and mobile application for the provision of meteorological and oceanographic observation and forecasting products. The iOS/Android apps were downloaded by more than 105 000 users and more than 100 000 users have visited the web version ( http://www.sea-conditions.com ).

Description: Global distribution of winter lightning: a threat to wind turbines and aircraft Joan Montanyà, Ferran Fabró, Oscar van der Velde, Víctor March, Earle Rolfe Williams, Nicolau Pineda, David Romero, Glòria Solà, and Modesto Freijo Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1465-1472, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1465-2016, 2016 Lightning is one of the major threats to modern multi-megawatt wind turbines and a concern for new generation of aircraft. Both wind turbines and aircraft can initiate lightning and very favourable conditions for lightning initiation occur in winter thunderstorms. Moreover, winter thunderstorms are characterized for producing very energetic lightning. In this paper we present the global winter lightning activity. Japan, US, Mediterranean, Argentina and New Zealand are the most active areas.

Description: Atmospheric and ionospheric coupling phenomena related to large earthquakes M. Parrot, V. Tramutoli, Tiger J. Y. Liu, S. Pulinets, D. Ouzounov, N. Genzano, M. Lisi, K. Hattori, and A. Namgaladze Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-172,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Since tens of years perturbations have been observed in the ionosphere prior to earthquakes (between a few hours and a few days before). But the mechanism to understand how the earthquake preparation in a seismic area can induce a change in the ionosphere is the subject of intense debate. In this paper we present various atmospheric and ionospheric perturbations observed prior to large earthquakes in order to support a model of coupling between the lithosphere, the atmosphere, and the ionosphere.

Description: FLOPROS: an evolving global database of flood protection standards Paolo Scussolini, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Brenden Jongman, Laurens M. Bouwer, Hessel C. Winsemius, Hans de Moel, and Philip J. Ward Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1049-1061, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016, 2016 Assessments of flood risk, on global to local scales, are becoming more urgent with ongoing climate change and with rapid socioeconomic developments. Such assessments need information about existing flood protection, still largely unavailable. Here we present the first open-source database of FLood PROtection Standards, FLOPROS, which enables more accurate modelling of flood risk. We also invite specialists to contribute new information to this evolving database.

Description: Regional impacts of global change: seasonal trends in extreme rainfall, run-off and temperature in two contrasting regions of Morocco Kenza Khomsi, Gil Mahe, Yves Tramblay, Mohamed Sinan, and Maria Snoussi Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1079-1090, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1079-2016, 2016 The study investigates trends in mean and extreme rainfall, run-off, temperature and their relationship with large-scale atmospheric circulation. It focuses on two Moroccan watersheds; Bouregreg and Tensift, using data from 1977 to 2003. Results do not show a homogeneous behaviour in the catchments; the influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is different and a clear spatial dependence of the trend analysis is linked to the distance from the coast and the mountains.

Description: Empirical Study on Drought Adaptation of Regional Rainfed Agriculture in China Zhiqiang Wang, Qing Ma, Siyu Chen, Lan Deng, and Jingyi Jiang Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-94,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) With global warming, the risk of agricultural drought is increasing. Through the empirical analysis of this paper, it found that farmers and the government always spontaneously adjust their development demands and take measures to adapt to environmental change, thus a dynamic agricultural drought adaptation model with the regional characteristics was formed in the area. Agricultural drought risk (R) is the function of environment (E), demand (D) and adaptation (A), or R = f (E, D, A).

Description: A new web-based system to improve the monitoring of snow avalanche hazard in France Ekaterina Bourova, Eric Maldonado, Jean-Baptiste Leroy, Rachid Alouani, Nicolas Eckert, Mylene Bonnefoy-Demongeot, and Michael Deschatres Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1205-1216, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1205-2016, 2016 Snow avalanche data in the French Alps and Pyrenees have been recorded for more than 100 years in several databases. In this manuscript, we present a newly developed web-based system that stores the observed data in a global avalanche database and assists the observers in their daily monitoring activity by providing coherent workflows for a wide range of users with different roles. The new system improves the quality of data and is widely used for fundamental research and operational purposes.

Description: Research trends on hazards, disasters, risk reduction and climate change in Indonesia: a systematic literature review Riyanti Djalante Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-112,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) The paper examines progress in research related hazards, risks, disasters, disaster risk reduction and management in Indonesia. It also reviews the roles of Indonesian authors in those publications. The study finds that majority of research focusses on hazards while only recently they focusses on risk reduction and management. This study recommends future research needs and capacity building in writing and collaboration between Indonesia and international researchers.

Description: From event analysis to global lessons: disaster forensics for building resilience Adriana Keating, Kanmani Venkateswaran, Michael Szoenyi, Karen MacClune, and Reinhard Mechler Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1603-1616, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1603-2016, 2016 We present a disaster forensics methodology: the post-event review capability (PERC), which responds to a need for learning about the successes and failures in disaster risk management (DRM) and resilience, uncovers the underlying drivers of increasing risk and makes actionable recommendations. We analyse seven PERC reports and find that across the globe policy makers and practitioners in DRM face strikingly similar challenges. These lessons highlight the importance of integrated risk reduction.

Description: Natural hazard fatalities in Switzerland from 1946 to 2015 Alexandre Badoux, Norina Andres, Frank Techel, and Christoph Hegg Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-232,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) A database of fatalities caused by natural hazards in Switzerland was compiled for the period from 1946 to 2015: In 70 years, 635 events occurred causing 1023 fatalities. The most common causes of death were snow avalanches (37 %), followed by lightning (16 %), floods (12 %), windstorms (10 %), rockfalls (8 %) and landslides (7 %). The annual number of victims showed a distinct decrease over time. In comparison to other countries worldwide, the natural hazard fatality rate in Switzerland is quite low.

Description: Coastal flooding: impact of waves on storm surge during extremes. A case study for the German Bight Joanna Staneva, Kathrin Wahle, Wolfgang Koch, Arno Behrens, Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, and Emil V. Stanev Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-227,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) This study addresses impact of wind, waves, tidal forcing and baroclinicity on the sea level. Their role is quantified and the results are compared with observations. The analyses of the coupled model results reveal a closer match with observations than for the stand-alone circulation model, especially during the extremes. The improved performance resulting from the new developments justifies further use of coupled models for improvement of coastal flooding predictions.

Description: Influence of expertise on rockfall hazard assessment using empirical methods Adeline Delonca, Thierry Verdel, and Yann Gunzburger Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1657-1672, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1657-2016, 2016 Rockfall hazard zoning analyses can be based on qualitative observations. For this reason, expertise is of great importance in determining the hazard. To test this hypothesis, an experiment is proposed to evaluate the importance of subjective assessment: three populations with different level of expertise assessed the level of rockfall hazard on three sites using a qualitative and a quantitative method. A statistical analysis shows that there is a non-significant influence of the level of expertise.

Description: The role of EMODnet Chemistry in the European challenge for Good Environmental Status Matteo Vinci, Alessandra Giorgetti, and Marina Lipizer Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-226,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) EMODnet initiative aims to provide access to European marine data in an interoperable and free of restrictions way. The Chemistry lot focus on the fulfillment of EU MSFD and INSPIRE directives requirements to assess eutrophication and contaminants. It could play two main roles: provide standardized and quality checked buffers of data for specific Regions and act as an umbrella for standards, best practices and infrastructure to aggregate at Regional level the single member states.

Description: Simple and approximate upper-limit estimation of future precipitation return-values Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, Abdelkader Mezghani, and Anita V. Dyrrdal Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-229,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) We propose a strategy for quantifying the maximum effect a temperature change has on heavy precipitation amounts making use of the limited available sources of information: laws of physics, seasonal variations, mathematical estimation of probability, and large number of climate model results. An upper bound is estimated rather than most likely value.

Description: Drift simulation of MH370 debris using superensemble techniques Eric Jansen, Giovanni Coppini, and Nadia Pinardi Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1623-1628, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016, 2016 In March 2014, a commercial airliner vanished without a trace. The main wreckage of the plane was never recovered, except for some small parts that washed up more than 17 months after the disappearance. In this paper we show a method to model the most likely trajectories of floating debris from the aircraft. The results show that the assumed area of the crash site is compatible with the recovered debris and predict that further debris may be found along the African east coast.

Description: Point release wet snow avalanches Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 2883-2912, 2015 Author(s): C. Vera Valero, Y. Bühler, and P. Bartelt Wet snow avalanches can initiate from large fracture slabs or small point releases. Point release wet snow avalanches can reach dangerous proportions when they (1) initiate on steep and long avalanche paths and (2) entrain warm moist snow. In this paper we investigate the dynamics of point release wet snow avalanches by applying a numerical model to simulate documented case studies on high altitude slopes in the Chilean Andes (33° S). The model predicts avalanche flow temperature as well as meltwater production, given the thermal initial conditions of the release mass and snowcover entrainment. As the release mass is small, avalanche velocity and runout are primarily controlled by snowcover temperature and moisture content. We demonstrate how the interaction between terrain and entrainment processes influence the production of meltwater and therefore lubrication processes leading to longer runout. This information is useful to avalanche forecasters. An understanding of wet snow avalanche dynamics is important to study how climate change scenarios will influence land usage in mountain regions in the near future.

Description: Appraising the Early-est earthquake monitoring system for tsunami alerting at the Italian candidate Tsunami Service Provider Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 2913-2952, 2015 Author(s): F. Bernardi, A. Lomax, A. Michelini, V. Lauciani, A. Piatanesi, and S. Lorito In this paper we present the procedure for earthquake location and characterization implemented in the Italian candidate Tsunami Service Provider at INGV in Roma. Following the ICG/NEAMTWS guidelines, the first tsunami warning messages are based only on seismic information, i.e. epicenter location, hypocenter depth and magnitude, which are automatically computed by the software Early-est. Early-est is a package for rapid location and seismic/tsunamigenic characterization of earthquakes. The Early-est software package operates on offline-event or continuous-realtime seismic waveform data to perform trace processing and picking, and, at a regular report interval , phase association, event detection, hypocenter location, and event characterization. In this paper we present the earthquake parameters computed by Early-est from the beginning of 2012 till the end of December 2014 at global scale for events with magnitude M ≥ 5.5, and the detection timeline. The earthquake parameters computed automatically by Early-est are compared with reference manually revised/verified catalogs. From our analysis the epicenter location and hypocenter depth parameters do not differ significantly from the values in the reference catalogs. The epicenter coordinates generally differ less than 20 ∓ 20 km from the reference epicenter coordinates; focal depths are less well constrained and differ generally less than 0 ∓ 30 km. Early-est also provides mb, M wp and M wpd magnitude estimations. mb magnitudes are preferred for events with M wp ≲ 5.8, while M wpd are valid for events with M wp ≳ 7.2. The magnitude mb show wide differences with respect to the reference catalogs, we thus apply a linear correction mb corr = mb · 0.52 + 2.46, such correction results into δmb ≈ 0.0 ∓ 0.2 uncertainty with respect the reference catalogs. As expected the M wp show distance dependency. M wp values at stations with epicentral distance Δ ≲ 30° are significantly overestimated with respect the CMT-global solutions, whereas M wp values at stations with epicentral distance Δ ≳ 90° are slightly underestimated. We thus apply a 3rd degree polynomial distance correction. After applying the distance correction, the M wp provided by Early-est differs from CMT-global catalog values of about δ M wp ≈ 0.0 ∓ 0.2. Early-est continuously acquires time series data and updates the earthquake source parameters. Our analysis shows that the epicenter coordinates and the magnitude values converge rather quickly toward the final values. Generally we can provide robust and reliable earthquake source parameters to compile tsunami warning message within less than about 15 min after event origin time.

Description: Storms or cold fronts? What is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coast Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 3023-3055, 2015 Author(s): L. J. Otero, J. C. Ortiz-Royero, J. K. Ruiz-Merchan, A. E. Higgins, and S. A. Henriquez On Friday, 7 March 2009, a 200 m-long section of the tourist pier in Puerto Colombia collapsed under the impact of the waves generated by a cold front in the area. The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms on extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean to determine the degree of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed and the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the wave's height; therefore, it is necessary to definitively know the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. Using Gumbel's extreme value methodology, the significant height values for the study area were calculated. The methodology was evaluated using data from the re-analysis of the spectral NOAA Wavewatch III (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombia Caribbean coast (continental and insular) of the last 15 years. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area formed by Baja Guajira, Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena, the strong influence of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. On the other hand, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast, from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá, even though extreme waves are lower than in the previous regions, extreme waves are dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to its geographic location. The wave heights in the extreme regime are similar in magnitude to those found in Alta Guajira, but the extreme waves associated with the passage of cold fronts in this region have lower return periods than the extreme waves associated with hurricane season. These results are of great importance when evaluating the threat of extreme waves in the coastal and port infrastructure, for purposes of the design of new constructions, and in the coastal flood processes due to run-up because, according to the site of interest in the coast, the forces that shape extreme waves are not the same.

Description: Early heat waves over Italy and their impacts on durum wheat yields Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 2953-2973, 2015 Author(s): G. Fontana, A. Toreti, A. Ceglar, and G. De Sanctis In the last decades the Euro-Mediterranean region has experienced an increase in extreme temperature events such as heat waves. These extreme weather conditions can strongly affect arable crop growth and final yields. Here, early heat waves over Italy from 1995 to 2013 are identified and characterised and their impact on durum wheat yields is investigated. As expected, results confirm the impact of the 2003 heat waves and highlight a high percentage of concurrence of early heat waves and significant negative yield anomalies in 13 out of 39 durum wheat production areas. In south-eastern Italy (the most important area for durum wheat production), the percentage of concurrent events exceeds 80%.

Description: Soil geohazard mapping for improved asset management of UK local roads Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 3151-3180, 2015 Author(s): O. G. Pritchard, S. H. Hallett, and T. S. Farewell Unclassified roads comprise 60% of the road network in the United Kingdom (UK). The resilience of this locally important network is declining. It is considered by the Institution of Civil Engineers to be "at risk" and is ranked 26th in the world. Many factors contribute to the degradation and ultimate failure of particular road sections. However, several UK local authorities have identified that in drought conditions, road sections founded upon shrink/swell susceptible clay soils undergo significant deterioration compared with sections on non-susceptible soils. This arises from the local road network having little, if any structural foundations. Consequently, droughts in East Anglia have resulted in millions of pounds of damage, leading authorities to seek emergency governmental funding. This paper assesses the use of soil-related geohazard assessments in providing soil-informed maintenance strategies for the asset management of the locally important road network of the UK. A case study draws upon the UK administrative county of Lincolnshire, where road assessment data have been analysed against mapped clay-subsidence risk. This reveals a statistically significant relationship between road condition and susceptible clay soils. Furthermore, incorporation of UKCP09 future climate projections within the geohazard models has highlighted roads likely to be at future risk of clay-related subsidence.

Description: Role of intertidal wetlands for tidal and storm tide attenuation along a confined estuary: a model study Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 3181-3224, 2015 Author(s): S. Smolders, Y. Plancke, S. Ides, P. Meire, and S. Temmerman Coastal lowlands and estuaries are subjected to increasing flood risks during storm surges due to global and regional changes. Tidal wetlands are increasingly valued as effective natural buffers for storm surges by dissipating wave energy and providing flood water storage. While previous studies focused on flood wave attenuation within and behind wetlands, this study focuses on the effects of estuarine wetland properties on the attenuation of a storm tide that propagates along the length of an estuary. Wetland properties including elevation, surface area, and location within the estuary were investigated using a numerical model of the Scheldt estuary (Belgium, SW Netherlands). For a spring tide lower wetland elevations result in more attenuation of high water levels along the estuary, while for a higher storm tide higher elevations provide more attenuation compared to lower wetland elevations. For spring and storm tide a arger wetland surface area results in a better attenuation along the estuary up to a threshold wetland size for which larger wetlands do not further contribute to more attenuation. Finally a wetland of the same size and elevation, but located more upstream in the estuary, can store a larger proportion of the local flood volume and therefore has a larger attenuating effect on upstream high water levels. With this paper we aim to contribute towards a better understanding and wider implementation of ecosystem-based adaptation to increasing estuarine flood risks associated with storms.

Description: Flash flood occurrence and relation to the rainfall hazard in a highly urbanized area Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 3119-3149, 2015 Author(s): K. Papagiannaki, K. Lagouvardos, V. Kotroni, and A. Bezes The paper examines the flash flood events that occurred during a decade in the Attica prefecture, the most urbanized region of Greece, with the aim of assessing the local vulnerability to the flash flood hazard and the effect of rainfall upon the magnitude of the induced damages. The analysis incorporates rainfall records from a network of 28 surface meteorological stations and information on the spatial distribution of the flash flood events that is derived from the active database of damaging weather events maintained by the atmospheric modelling group of the National Observatory of Athens. The main findings concern the relation between the flash flood impact, as measured by the Fire Service operations in flooded properties, and precipitation in various time intervals, as well as the possibility to define rainfall intensity thresholds for flood triggering at a more local level. It is shown that the quality of the produced thresholds depends on the distribution and density of the rain gauges that cover each specified geographical area of the Attica region.

Description: Spatial analysis of damaged vegetation in the Mianyuan River basin after the Wenchuan Earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 3225-3250, 2015 Author(s): H. Z. Zhang, J. R. Fan, X. M. Wang, T. H. Chi, and L. Peng The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake destroyed large areas of vegetation. Presently, these areas of damaged vegetation are at various stages of recovery. In this study, we present a probabilistic approach for slope stability analysis that quantitatively relates data on earthquake-damaged vegetation with slope stability in a given river basin. The Mianyuan River basin was selected for model development, and earthquake-damaged vegetation and post-earthquake recovery conditions were identified via the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), from multi-temporal (2001–2014) remote sensing images. DSAL (digital elevation model, slope, aspect, and lithology) spatial zonation was applied to characterize the survival environments of vegetation, which were used to discern the relationships between successful vegetation regrowth and environmental conditions. Finally, the slope stability susceptibility model was trained through multivariate analysis of earthquake-damaged vegetation and its controlling factors (i.e. topographic environments and material properties). Application to the Subao River basin validated the proposed model, showing that most of the damaged vegetation areas have high susceptibility levels (88.1% 〉 susceptibility level 3, and 61.5% 〉 level 4). Our modelling approach may also be valuable for use in other regions prone to landslide hazards.

Description: Variations in water storage in China over recent decade from GRACE Observations and GLDAS Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 3251-3286, 2015 Author(s): X. Mo, J. Wu, Q. Wang, and H. Zhou We applied GRACE Tellus products in combination with GLDAS simulations and data from reports, to analyze variations in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in China and eight of its basins from 2003 to 2013. Amplitudes of TWS were well restored after scaling, and showed good correlations with those estimated from models at the basin scale. TWS generally followed variations in annual precipitation, it decreased linearly in Huai River basin (−0.564 cm yr −1 ) and increased with fluctuations in Changjiang River basin (0.348 cm yr −1 ), Zhujiang basin (0.552 cm yr −1 ) and Southeast Rivers basin (0.696 cm yr −1 ). In Hai River basin and Yellow River basin, groundwater exploitation may have altered TWS's response to climate, but it began to restore since 2012. Changes in soil moisture storage contributed over 50% in of variances in TWS in most basins. Precipitation and runoff showed large impact on TWS, with explained variances higher in TWS in the south than in the north. North China and Southwest Rivers region exhibited long-term TWS depletions. TWS increased significantly over the recent decade in the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang, southeastern coastal area, as well as the Hoh Xil, and headstream region of the Yellow River in Tibetan plateau. The findings in this study could be helpful to climate change impact research and disaster mitigation planning.

Description: Evaluation of shallow landslide triggering scenarios through a physically-based approach: an example of application in the southern Messina area (north-eastern Sicily, Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 2975-3022, 2015 Author(s): L. Schilirò, C. Esposito, and G. Scarascia Mugnozza Rainfall-induced shallow landslides are a widespread phenomenon that frequently causes substantial damage to property, as well as numerous casualties. In recent years a wide range of physically-based models has been developed to analyze the triggering process of these events. Specifically, in this paper we propose an approach for the evaluation of different shallow landslide triggering scenarios by means of TRIGRS numerical model. For the calibration of the model, a back-analysis of the landslide event occurred in the study area (located SW of Messina, north-eastern Sicily, Italy) on 1 October 2009 was performed, by using different methods and techniques for the definition of the input parameters. After evaluating the reliability of the model through the comparison with the 2009 landslide inventory, different triggering scenarios were defined using rainfall values derived from the rainfall probability curves, reconstructed on the basis of daily and hourly historical rainfall data. The results emphasize how these phenomena are likely to occur in the area, given that even short-duration (3–6 h) rainfall events having a relatively low return period (e.g. 10 years) can trigger numerous slope failures. On the contrary, for the same rainfall amount, the daily simulations overestimate the instability conditions. The tendency of shallow landslides to trigger in this area agrees with the high number of landslide/flood events occurred in the past and summarized in this paper by means of archival researches. Considering the main features of the proposed approach, the authors suggest that this methodology could be applied to different areas, even for the development of landslide early warning systems.

Description: Hydroelastic analysis of ice shelves under long wave excitation Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 3057-3075, 2015 Author(s): T. K. Papathanasiou, A. E. Karperaki, E. E. Theotokoglou, and K. A. Belibassakis The transient hydroelastic response of an ice shelf under long wave excitation is analysed by means of the finite element method. The simple model, presented in this work, is used for the simulation of the generated kinematic and stress fields in an ice shelf, when the latter interacts with a tsunami wave. The ice shelf, being of large length compared to its thickness, is modelled as an elastic Euler–Bernoulli beam, constrained at the grounding line. The hydrodynamic field is represented by the linearised shallow water equations. The numerical solution is based on the development of a special hydroelastic finite element for the system of governing of equations. Motivated by the 2011 Sulzberger Ice Shelf (SIS) calving event and its correlation with the Honshu Tsunami, the SIS stable configuration is studied. The extreme values of the bending moment distribution in both space and time are examined. Finally, the location of these extrema is investigated for different values of ice shelf thickness and tsunami wave length.

Description: Runup parameterization and beach vulnerability assessment on a barrier island: a downscaling approach Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 3077-3117, 2015 Author(s): G. Medellín, J. A. Brinkkemper, A. Torres-Freyermuth, C. M. Appendini, E. T. Mendoza, and P. Salles We present a downscaling approach for the study of wave-induced extreme water levels at a location on a barrier island in Yucatan (Mexico). Wave information from a 30 year wave hindcast is validated with in situ measurements at 8 m water depth. The Maximum Dissimilarity Algorithm is employed for the selection of 600 representative cases, encompassing different wave characteristics and tidal level combinations. The selected cases are propagated from 8 m water depth till the shore using the coupling of a third-generation wave model and a phase-resolving non-hydrostatic Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations model. Extreme wave runup, R 2% , is estimated for the simulated cases and can be further employed to reconstruct the 30 year period using an interpolation algorithm. Downscaling results show runup saturation during more energetic wave conditions and modulation owing to tides. The latter suggests that the R 2% can be parameterized using a hyperbolic-like formulation with dependency on both wave height and tidal level. The new parametric formulation is in agreement with the downscaling results ( r 2 = 0.78), allowing a fast calculation of wave-induced extreme water levels at this location. Finally, an assessment of beach vulnerability to wave-induced extreme water level is conducted at the study area by employing the two approaches (reconstruction/parametrization) and a storm impact scale. The 30 year extreme water level hindcast allows the calculation of beach vulnerability as a function of return periods. It is shown that the downscaling-derived parameterization provides reasonable results as compared with the numerical approach. This methodology can be extended to other locations and can be further improved by incorporating the storm surge contributions to the extreme water level.

Description: Regional trends and controlling factors of fatal landslides in Latin America and the Caribbean Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 2777-2809, 2015 Author(s): S. A. Sepúlveda and D. N. Petley A database of landslides that caused loss of life in Latin America and the Caribbean in the period from 2004 and 2013 inclusive has been compiled using established techniques. This database indicates that in the ten year period a total of 11 631 people lost their lives across the region in 611 landslides. The geographical distribution of the landslides is very heterogeneous, with areas of high incidence in parts of the Caribbean (most notably Haiti), Central America, Colombia, and SE. Brazil. The number of landslides varies considerably between years; the El Niño/La Niña cycle emerges as a major factor controlling this variation, although the study period did not capture a large event. Analysis suggests that on a continental scale the mapped factors that best explain the observed distribution are topography, annual precipitation and population density. On a national basis we have compared the occurrence of fatality-inducing landslide occurrence with the production of research articles with a local author, which shows that there is a landslide research deficit in Latin America and the Caribbean. Understanding better the mechanisms, distributions causes and triggers of landslides in Latin America and the Caribbean must be an essential first step towards managing the hazard.

Description: Estimation of insurance related losses resulting from coastal flooding in France Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 2811-2846, 2015 Author(s): J. P. Naulin, D. Moncoulon, S. Le Roy, R. Pedreros, D. Idier, and C. Oliveros A model has been developed in order to estimate insurance-related losses caused by coastal flooding in France. The deterministic part of the model aims at identifying the potentially flood-impacted sectors and the subsequent insured losses a few days after the occurrence of a storm surge event on any part of the French coast. This deterministic component is a combination of three models: a hazard model, a vulnerability model and a damage model. The first model uses the PREVIMER system to estimate the water level along the coast. A storage-cell flood model propagates these water levels over the land and thus determines the probable inundated areas. The vulnerability model, for its part, is derived from the insurance schedules and claims database; combining information such as risk type, class of business and insured values. The outcome of the vulnerability and hazard models are then combined with the damage model to estimate the event damage and potential insured losses. This system shows satisfactory results in the estimation of the magnitude of the known losses related to the flood caused by the Xynthia storm. However, it also appears very sensitive to the water height estimated during the flood period, conditioned by the junction between sea water levels and coastal topography for which the accuracy is still limited in the system.

Description: Laboratory tests for the optimization of mesh size for flexible debris-flow barriers Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 2099-2118, 2015 Author(s): C. Wendeler and A. Volkwein Laboratory tests were performed to study the loading aspects of flexible debris-flow barriers. Debris material from the Milibach river (Canton Berne, Switzerland) has been used to quantify the influence of different mesh sizes and the gap between the lower barrier edge and the river bed compared to the maximum grain size. It was possible to study the filling process and the retaining behaviour of the barriers as a function of the mesh size. A reasonable retention was reached with the net having a mesh size and a basal gap smaller than d 90 where d 90 is the maximum diameter of 90% of the grains. By scaling the laboratory tests to the natural size using Froude similarity a recommendation is given for the best net mesh size and the gap in natural conditions. The conclusions are supported by the results of numerous laboratory tests using different debris material, e.g. from the Illgraben river (Canton Valais).

Description: An assessment of the potential of earth observation data to detect and monitor storm cells associated with natural hazards – an application to an extreme weather event in southeastern Mediterranean Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 2191-2219, 2015 Author(s): T. Mavrakou and C. Cartalis Storm cells that evolve in Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) can be recognised with the use of satellite images. In this study, Meteosat images are used for the early detection and monitoring of the evolution of storm cells associated with MCSs. The developed methodology is based on the estimation of the "Airmass" and "Convective storm" composites, at fifteen minutes intervals. The methodology was applied on a selected four-day case study in February 2013, when a depression was developed over Africa and moved across the Mediterranean resulting in deep convection along its trajectory and in an extreme weather event (heavy rainfall associated with severe flooding) at the wider urban agglomeration of Athens. The produced composites detect potential vorticity (PV) anomaly related to cyclogenesis and increase the potential to detect and monitor storm cells associated with natural hazards.

Description: The asymmetric impact of natural disasters on China's bilateral trade Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 2003-2023, 2015 Author(s): Y. Meng, P. Shi, S. Yang, and C. C. Jeager Globalization and technological revolutions are making the world more interconnected. International trade is one of the major approaches linking the world. Since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan shocked the global supply chain, more attention has been paid to the global impact of large-scale disasters. China is the second largest trader in the world and faces the most frequent natural disasters. Therefore, this study proposes a gravity model for China's bilateral trade tailored to national circumstances, and estimates the impact of natural disasters in China and trading partner countries on Chinese imports and exports. We analyzed Chinese and trading partner statistical data from 1980 to 2012. Study results show that: (1) China's natural disasters have a positive impact on imports, but have no significant impact on exports, (2) trading partner countries' natural disasters reduce Chinese imports and exports, (3) both development level and land area of the partners are important in determining the intensity of natural disaster impacts on China's bilateral trade. The above findings suggest that the impact of natural disasters on trade is asymmetric and significantly affected by other factors, which demand further study.

Description: New estimates of potential impacts of sea level rise and coastal floods in Poland Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3, 2493-2536, 2015 Author(s): D. Paprotny and P. Terefenko Polish coastal zone is thought to be of the most exposed to sea level rise in Europe. With climate change expected to raise mean sea levels between 26 and 200 cm by the end of the century, and storms increasing in severity, accurate estimates of those phenomena are needed. Recent advances in quality and availability of spatial data in Poland made in possible to revisit previous estimates. Up-to-date detailed information on land use, population and buildings were used to calculate inundation risk at a broad range of scenarios. Inclusion, though imperfect, of flood defences from a high-resolution digital elevation model contributes to a further improvement of estimates. The results revealed that even by using a static "bathtub fill" approach the amount of land, population or assets at risk has been significantly revised down. Sea level rise or storm surges are unlikely to reach intensity required to cause significant damage to the economy or endanger the population. The exposure of different kinds of assets and sectors of the economy varies to a large extent, though the structural breakdown of potential losses is remarkably stable between scenarios.

Description: Regional prioritisation of flood risk in mountainous areas María Carolina Rogelis, Micha Werner, Nelson Obregón, and Nigel Wright Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 833-853, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-833-2016, 2016 A method to identify mountainous watersheds with the highest flood risk at the regional level is proposed and applied in Bogotá (Colombia). Vulnerability at the regional level was assessed and combined with an existing flood susceptibility indicator, thus providing an index that allows the watersheds to be prioritised. Results show that vulnerability can be expressed in terms of four constituent indicators and a sensitivity analysis shows that the classification of vulnerability is robust.

Description: Patterns and trends of high-impact weather in China during 1959–2014 Jun Shi, Kangmin Wen, and Linli Cui Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 855-869, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-855-2016, 2016 The spatial and temporal characteristics of the frequencies of four types of high-impact weather (HIW), i.e. snowfall, thunderstorms, fog and hailstorms, were analysed in China during 1959–2014. Results indicate a significant decrease in the number of snowfall days, thunderstorm days and thunderstorm spells in all six regions of China, with regional decreasing rates of 0.1–3.4 days, 1.6–5.1 days and 0.23–0.77 times per decade respectively. The number of foggy days, hailstorm days and snowfall spells decreased at rates of 0.2–1.8 days, 0.1–0.7 days and 0.14–0.44 times per decade respectively in almost all regions and fog and hailstorm spells decreased at rates of 0.06–0.17 and 0.001–0.043 times per decade respectively in most regions of China. Spatially, there was more snowfall in northeastern China and western China, and more thunderstorms in southern China and southwestern China. The number of fog events was larger in some high mountain stations, eastern China and central China. Hailstorms were concentrated on Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Over the past 56 years, snowfall days, thunderstorm days and thunderstorm spells decreased in most parts of China, and hailstorm days decreased in northeastern China, most parts of northern China and Tibet, southern Qinghai and western Sichuan. The spatial trends of foggy days, foggy spells, snowfall spells and hailstorm spells were not significant in most parts of China. With global warming, some types of HIW are likely to increase in their intensities, so more mitigation and adaptation strategies are still essential for local government and the public in China.

Description: Spatial-Temporal Clustering of Tornadoes Bruce D. Malamud and Donald L. Turcotte Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-71,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) We introduce a novel method for the spatio-temporal cluster analysis of severe tornado touchdowns that are part of tornado outbreaks. Tornado outbreaks, groups of tornadoes that occur close to each other temporally and spatially, constitute a severe hazard that have few quantitative measures. Our new approach, which we illustrate using two severe tornado outbreaks from 2011, differentiates between types of tornado outbreaks, and within outbreaks, identification of clusters in both time & space.

Description: Lightning and electrical activity during the Shiveluch volcano eruption on 16 November 2014 Boris M. Shevtsov, Pavel P. Firstov, Nina V. Cherneva, Robert H. Holzworth, and Renat R. Akbashev Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 871-874, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-871-2016, 2016 The Kamchatka volcano group is located near populated areas and international air routes. Due to this, explosive eruptions are a serious threat to their security. To decrease the risks, effective systems for remote detection of eruptions are necessary. WWLLN resolution is enough for the remote sensing of the volcano lightning activity in the early stage of ash cloud formation a few minutes after the eruption when electrification proceeds the most intensively.

Description: Flood forecasting using transboundary data with the fuzzy inference system: The Maritza (Meriç) River Abdurrahim Aydın, İbrahim Yücedağ, and Remzi Eker Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-86,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Because the section of the Maritza River inside the Turkish border is short, there is not adequate warning time for Turkey to alert the population against flash floods. Although early warning systems offer the population time to evacuate before floods, improving such systems involves multiple components, each with a cost. That's why, four fuzzy models were developed satisfactorily predict the flow regime with high accuracy from transboundary flow data originating from three gauging stations.

Description: A coupled wave-3D hydrodynamics model of the Taranto Sea (Italy): a multiple-nesting approach Maria Gabriella Gaeta, Achilleas G. Samaras, Ivan Federico, and Renata Archetti Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-95,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) The present work describes an operational strategy for the development of a multiscale modelling system, based on a multiple–nesting approach and open–source numerical models. The strategy was applied and validated for the Gulf of Taranto in South Italy, scaling large–scale oceanographic model results to high–resolution coupled wave–3D hydrodynamics simulations for the area of Mar Grande in Taranto Sea. The spatial and temporal high – resolution simulations were performed using the open–source.

Description: Climate anomalies associated to the occurrence of rockfalls at high-elevation in the Italian Alps Roberta Paranunzio, Francesco Laio, Marta Chiarle, Guido Nigrelli, and Fausto Guzzetti Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-100,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) We provide the results of the joint analysis of the main climate variables and spatio-temporal distribution of 41 rockfalls that occurred in the Italian Alps between 1997 and 2013 in the absence of an evident trigger. We compared the meteorological conditions preceding the failures with the historical datasets, to determine if rockfall initiation was associated with some climatic anomaly. We found out that temperature anomalies were associated with rockfall occurrence in 83 % of our case studies.

Description: The observed clustering of damaging extratropical cyclones in Europe Stephen Cusack Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 901-913, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-901-2016, 2016 Clusters of severe windstorms threaten solvency in the (re-)insurance industry. Risk management is made highly uncertain due to so few clusters of severe storms in the past few decades. This research brought together a wide variety of historical storm damage information spanning the past few centuries in Europe to increase our knowledge of clustering of damaging storms. Clustering was found to increase with more severe storms, with weaker signs of more clustering off the main storm track.

Description: Debris flow impact estimation on a rigid barrier Federico Vagnon and Andrea Segalini Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-80,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) This study has the aim of reviewing the dynamics of debris flow impact against rigid structures and providing a new simple formulation to predict peak thrust. The equation proposed differs from other formulations because takes into account both flow characteristics and material properties and barrier dimensions. The model developed has a good capability to predict force measured during the laboratory tests.

Description: Local and regional smoke impacts from prescribed fires Owen F. Price, Bronwyn Horsey, and Ningbo Jiang Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-66,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) We measured particulate levels at distances ranging from 50 m–20 km from two prescribed fires and compared the values to those predicted from an atmospheric dispersion model. The model performed well during the day but not for areas close to the fire (under 1 km) which experienced high pollution peaks and did not predict night-time pollution in one of the fires over an area of 120,000 hectares caused by a temperature inversion.

Description: Maintenance and risk management of rockfall protection net fences through numerical study of deteriorations Andrea Luciani, Monica Barbero, Daniele Martinelli, and Daniele Peila Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-78,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Maintenance of rockfall protection net fences is fundamental for public administrations in order to guarantee risk mitigation. In this paper the influence of deteriorations on the behaviour of this works is analysed using a numerical simulation of the impact of rocks on net fences with different damages. The residual efficiency of a deteriorated net fence is extimated and the resulting variation of the risk mitigation is evaluated. This appraisal allows owners to better plan maintenance works.

Description: Snow avalanche friction relation based on extended kinetic theory Matthias Rauter, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Wolfgang Fellin, and Andreas Kofler Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-98,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Kinetic theory describes granular material under rapid motion. Macroscopic phenomena are determined by statistically describing collisions between particles. Recently, the theory has been extended to slow motion and quasi-static cases. Simplifications allow to apply this theory to snow avalanche simulations, where friction models with similar structure have been developed. Different test cases, comparing simulation and measurement data prove the applicability and highlight the improvements.

Description: 〈b〉Stochastic downscaling of precipitation in complex orography: a simple method to reproduce a realistic fine-scale climatology〈/b〉〈br〉 Silvia Terzago, Elisa Palazzi, and Jost von Hardenberg〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2825-2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2825-2018, 2018〈br〉 This study proposes a modification to a stochastic downscaling method for precipitation, RainFARM, to improve the representation of the statistics of the daily precipitation at fine scales (1 km) in mountain areas. This method has been demonstrated in the Alps and it has been found to reconstruct small-scale precipitation distribution. It can be employed in a number of applications, including the analysis of extreme events and their statistics and hydrometeorological hazards.

Description: 〈b〉High-spatial resolution probability maps of drought duration and magnitude across Spain〈/b〉〈br〉 Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Miquel Tomás-Burguera, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Yolanda Luna, and Ana Morata〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-289,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 We mapped – for the first time – the probability of occurrence of drought over Spain, with the overriding aim of improving current drought assessment, management and mitigation measures and strategies across the region. Spatially, our estimations suggest a higher probability of extreme drought events in southern and central areas of Spain, compared to northern and eastern regions. Nevertheless, there are strong differences between drought indices, as well as among drought timescales.

Description: 〈b〉Wave run-up prediction and observation in a micro-tidal beach〈/b〉〈br〉 Diana Di Luccio, Guido Benassai, Giorgio Budillon, Luigi Mucerino, Raffaele Montella, and Eugenio Pugliese Carratelli〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2841-2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2841-2018, 2018〈br〉 Forecasting and hindcasting the action of sea storms on piers, coastal structures and beaches is important to mitigate their effects. To this end, with particular regard to low coasts and beaches, we have configured a computational model chain based partly on open-access models and partly on an ad-hoc-developed numerical calculator to evaluate beach wave run-up levels. The results were validated by a set of specially conceived video-camera-based experiments on a micro-tidal beach.

Description: 〈b〉InSAR Technique Applied to the Monitoring of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway〈/b〉〈br〉 Qingyun Zhang, Yongsheng Li, Jingfa Zhang, and Yi Luo〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-287,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Before the opening of the railway, the deformation of Qinghai-Tibet Railway was very small and considered stable. After opening, the overall stability of the railway section was good. The main deformation areas are concentrated in the areas where railway lines turn and geological disasters are concentrated. In order to ensure the safety of railway operation, it is necessary to carry out long-term time series observation along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway.

Description: 〈b〉Temporal evolution of flow-like landslide hazard for a road infrastructure in the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (southern Italy) under the effect of climate change〈/b〉〈br〉 Marco Uzielli, Guido Rianna, Fabio Ciervo, Paola Mercogliano, and Unni K. Eidsvig〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3019-3035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3019-2018, 2018〈br〉 Landslide hazard at a given location may change over time due to climate change, since the frequency and intensity of landslide-triggering factors such as rainfall can vary significantly. It is important for stakeholders and decision-makers to predict trends in landslide hazard to mitigate the risk of losing lives and material assets. This study contributes an innovative method for the prediction of future variations of rainfall-induced landslides and shows its application to an Italian site.

Description: 〈b〉Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location〈/b〉〈br〉 David M. Hyman, Andrea Bevilacqua, and Marcus I. Bursik〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-344,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In this work, we present new methods for calculating the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the boundaries of volcanic hazards. These calculations are based on a new, mathematically rigorous definition of a probabilistic hazard map – a way to map the probabilities of inundation by a given hazard. We apply this analysis to several models of volcanic flows: simple models of viscous flows, complex models of a tabletop granular flow, and a complex model of a volcanic mud flow.

Description: 〈b〉Mapping snow avalanches hazard in poorly monitored areas. The case of Rigopiano avalanche, Apennines of Italy〈/b〉〈br〉 Daniele Bocchiola, Mattia Galizzi, Giovanni Martino Bombelli, and Andrea Soncini〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-358,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 We investigate hazard for the poorly monitored area of Rigopiano (PE), where an avalanche killed 29 persons on January 2017. Using Poly-Aval model (1D/q2D), and a regional approach to calculate snow depth at release 〈i〉h〈/i〉〈sub〉72〈/sub〉 we map hazard zones as per AINEVA guidelines, with confidence limits. We demonstrate that regionally based hazard mapping at poorly measured sites as here allows mapping even for large return periods, considerably reducing the uncertainty against canonical single site analysis.

Description: 〈b〉Dependency of tropical cyclone risk on track in South Korea〈/b〉〈br〉 Chaehyeon C. Nam, Doo-Sun R. Park, Chang-Hoi Ho, and Deliang Chen〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3225-3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3225-2018, 2018〈br〉 This study shows that a small deviation of the tropical cyclone (TC) track in the west–east direction (less than 250 km smaller than the average radius of the TC) has a more dominant effect on the extent and distribution of TC damage than TC intensity or size. This suggests that track information should be considered more carefully in assessments of future TC risk.

Description: 〈b〉Man-made earthquakes prevention through monitoring and discharging their causative stress-deformed states〈/b〉〈br〉 Oleg Kuznetsov, Igor Chirkin, Ahmed Radwan, Ahmed Ismail, Yury Lyasch, Samuel LeRoy, Evgeny Rizanov, and Sergey Koligaev〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-350,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Despite our understanding of the different mechanisms of man-made earthquakes, their short-term prediction and prevention is yet to be attained. In this study, we propose an integrated four-step approach to predict and prevent man-made earthquakes or reduce their chance of occurrence. Our four-step approach includes: 1) locating the highly anomalous zones of microseismic emission (MSE) that result from the stress-deformed state inside a geological formation and often represents the 〈q〉seismic nuclei〈/q〉 for impending earthquakes, 2) Monitoring the variations and dynamics of the anomalous MSE zones over a period of one lunar month, 3) inducing a creep-discharging of the MSE zones using a vibroseis seismic source at the ground surface, and 4) monitoring the same MSE zones following the creep-discharge to determine whether the stress-deformed state was released and the chance of potential earthquake occurrence has been eliminated or reduced. The proposed full four-step approach has never implemented at one single location. Nevertheless, the steps have been tested separately at different sites and have proven successful. We propose conducting the full four-step approach at various locations of potential man-made earthquake activities around the world including the state of Oklahoma in the United States.