ALBERT

Description: Erratum to: Damage from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami - A quick report Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-3 DOI 10.1007/s11027-011-9304-z Authors Nobuo Mimura, Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science (ICAS), Ibaraki University, Mito, Japan Kazuya Yasuhara, Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science (ICAS), Ibaraki University, Mito, Japan Seiki Kawagoe, Faculty of Symbiotic Systems Science, Fukushima University, Fukushima, Japan Hiromune Yokoki, School of Engineering, Ibaraki University, Hitachi, Japan So Kazama, School of Engineering, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan Journal Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Online ISSN 1573-1596 Print ISSN 1381-2386

Description:    Although forest carbon offsets can play an important role in the implementation of comprehensive climate policy, they also face an inherent risk of reversal. If such risks are positively correlated across projects, it can affect the integrity of larger project portfolios and potentially the entire offsets program. Here, we discuss three types of risks that could affect forest offsets—fat tails, micro-correlation, and tail dependence—and provide examples of how they could present themselves in a forest offset context. Given these potential dependencies, we suggest several new risk management approaches that take into account dependencies in reversal risk across projects and which could help guard the climate integrity of an offsets program. We also argue that data collection be included as an integral part of any offsets program so that disturbance-related dependencies may be identified and managed as early and to the greatest extent possible. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-8 DOI 10.1007/s11027-011-9306-x Authors David M. Cooley, Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA Christopher S. Galik, Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA Thomas P. Holmes, United States Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Research Triangle Park (RTP), NC 27709, USA Carolyn Kousky, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC 20036, USA Roger M. Cooke, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC 20036, USA Journal Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Online ISSN 1573-1596 Print ISSN 1381-2386

Description:    Climate change poses a serious threat to sea turtles (Cheloniidae) as their terrestrial reproductive phase is only successful within a limited range of environmental and physical conditions. These conditions are likely to become less optimal as climate change progresses. To date, management and conservation of sea turtles has focused almost entirely on non-climatic stressors, due at least in part to practitioners not knowing what strategies to take and the feasibility and risks of potential strategies. To aid the management of sea turtles in a changing environment, we identified management strategies via a focus workshop and surveys to mitigate the impacts of climate change to the terrestrial reproductive phase of sea turtles. The effectiveness, ecological risks and potential social and logistical constraints associated with implementing each of the identified management strategies is discussed. Twenty management strategies were identified; strategies varied from habitat protection to more active and direct manipulation of nests and the nesting environment. Based on our results, we suggest a three-pronged approach to sea turtle conservation in light of climate change, where managers and researchers should: 1) enhance sea turtle resilience to climate change by mitigating other threats; 2) prioritise implementing the ‘no regret’ and ‘reversible’ management strategies identified here; and 3) fill the knowledge gaps identified to aid the trial and implementation of the potential strategies identified here. By combining these three approaches our collective toolkit of sea turtle management strategies will expand, giving us an array of viable approaches to implement as climate change impacts become more extreme. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11027-011-9308-8 Authors M. M. P. B. Fuentes, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811 Queensland, Australia M. R. Fish, WWF Canada, Suite 1588–409 Granville Street, Vancouver, BC V6C 1T2, Canada J. A. Maynard, Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis, School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia Journal Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Online ISSN 1573-1596 Print ISSN 1381-2386

Description:    Using a bioeconomic model of the cod ( Gadus morhua ) and capelin ( Mallotus villosus ) fisheries of the Barents Sea, this study assesses the role of the fishermen’s behavior in reducing or intensifying the effects on the stocks caused by altered population dynamics. The analysis focuses on the economic development of the fisheries employing a coupled stock size–hydrography-based fishing strategy, which attempts to maximize returns from fishing over a given number of fishing periods. Results show that if the fishing strategy is based on a short optimization period of only two fishing periods, changes in population dynamics have a direct influence on the returns from fishing due to the strong pressure on the stocks applied by the fisheries. If the strategy is based on a longer optimization period, fishing activities may be deferred to allow for stock regrowth, which improves the economic performance of the fisheries. However, in that case, the relationship between population dynamics and fishing activities becomes less clear, as even a reduction of the carrying capacities of the two species allows for an increase in the amount of fish landed without causing a stock collapse due to an increased efficiency of fleet utilization. The simulations indicate that management considerations and the time horizon of the fishing strategy dominate the influence of altered population dynamics on the development of the stocks considered in the model. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s10666-011-9267-1 Authors Peter Michael Link, Research Group Climate Change and Security, KlimaCampus Hamburg, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 53 #018, 20146 Hamburg, Germany Uwe A. Schneider, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Center for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, Pavilion, 20146 Hamburg, Germany Richard S. J. Tol, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Journal Environmental Modeling and Assessment Online ISSN 1573-2967 Print ISSN 1420-2026

Description:    Development and evaluation of mitigation strategies are fundamental to manage climate change risks. This study was built on (1) quantifying the response of maize ( Zea mays L.) grain yield to potential impacts of climate change and (2) investigating the effectiveness of changing sowing date of maize as a mitigation option for Khorasan Province which is located in northeast of Iran. Two types of General Circulation Models (GCM: (United Kingdom Met Office Hadley Center :HadCM3) and (Institute Pierre Simon Laplace: IPCM4)) and three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) at four locations (Mashhad, Birjand, Bojnourd and Sabzevar) employed in this study. Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was employed for generating the future climate. The Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Maize was used for crop growth simulation under projected climate conditions. The results showed the simulated grain yields of maize gradually would decrease (from −1% to −39%) during future 100 years compared to baseline under different scenarios and two GCM at all study locations. The simulation results suggested that delayed sowing date from May to June at all study locations, except Sabzevar location is the most effective mitigation option for avoiding thermal stress at end of growth period. In addition, shifting in sowing date to March or April will be beneficial in terms of obtaining higher yields in Sabzevar. Grain yield did not show special trend from north to south of Khorasan Province in the future climate. In general, change of sowing date may be quite beneficial to mitigate climate change impacts on grain yield of maize in northeast of Iran. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11027-011-9305-y Authors Azam Lashkari, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Faculty of Agriculture, P.O. Box 91775-1163, Mashhad, Iran Amin Alizadeh, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Faculty of Agriculture, P.O. Box 91775-1163, Mashhad, Iran Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Faculty of Agriculture, P.O. Box 91775-1163, Mashhad, Iran Mohammad Bannayan, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Faculty of Agriculture, P.O. Box 91775-1163, Mashhad, Iran Journal Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Online ISSN 1573-1596 Print ISSN 1381-2386

Description:    Groundwater flow modelling is an important tool in simulating and predicting hydraulic behaviour of groundwater transporting in the domain consisted of groundwater flow zone (aquifer) and permeable reactive barriers (PRBs). The aquifer regime is modelled using the Darcy equation, whereas PRBs are simulated by the Brinkman equation. By combining the above equations, the present paper is devoted to analyse the effect of permeability of aquifer ( K aq ) and reactive media ( K p ), groundwater flow velocity, and barrier size as well as assembled style of barriers on key barrier design parameter, such as the hydraulic capture zone width. The simulations indicate that the capture zone width generally decreases with a decrease in K p at a given K aq ; however, there is relatively little decrease in capture zone width when the K p of freshly installed reactive media is roughly 10 times higher than the K aq . For a given barrier system, the absolute capture zone width increases with an increase in barrier size, whereas the increment of relative capture zone width decreases dramatically. Although the capture zone width remains relatively unchanged as groundwater flow velocity increases, it results in a shorter residence time in the reactive media that may require greater barrier thickness so that contaminant levels can be reduced to regulatory limits. In addition, the effect of parallel barriers interaction on the capture zone width should be incorporated into the design. The present paper is based on the continuous reactive barrier and homogeneous barrier system. Similar methods can be used to analyse the hydrodynamics of funnel-and-gate system and heterogeneous settings by the appropriate modification. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-8 DOI 10.1007/s10666-011-9268-0 Authors Shejiang J. Liu, School of Environmental Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072 China Xingang G. Li, School of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072 China Hongxing X. Wang, School of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072 China Journal Environmental Modeling and Assessment Online ISSN 1573-2967 Print ISSN 1420-2026

Description:    Sustainable development is a widespread concept. Indicator selection and sustainability assessment are basic methods to analyse the sustainable development process. This study aims to develop a software application to select indicators and to allocate weightings to the indicators and the sub-indexes, so that they can be listed in a sustainability assessment. The Visual Basic software is used to develop a software package based on Delphi, analytic hierarchy, normalization and combination processes. Software for sustainability assessment was developed. Thirty-five indicators are selected as a first step of which eight health indicators and eight environmental ones and their sub-indexes are given weightings. The indicators are normalized. Sub-indexes are combined into a composite sustainable development index. The model is validated showing the ‘main features’ of the sustainability situation on health and environmental aspects in the Quang Tri province during the period 2000–2005. The results support the decision-making process of the competent authorities. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.1007/s10666-011-9264-4 Authors Le Trinh Hai, Institute of Geography, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam Pham Hoang Hai, Institute of Geography, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam Chu Lam Thai, Vietnam’s Ministry of Information and Communications, Hanoi, Vietnam Jean Hugé, Human Ecology Department, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium Albert Ahenkan, Human Ecology Department, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium Le Xuan Quynh, Human Ecology Department, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium Vu Van Hieu, Centre for Environmental Monitoring and Modelling, Vietnam National University in Hanoi, Hanoi, Vietnam Nguyen Le The Tung, Department of Professional Informatics, Ministry of Public Security, Hanoi, Vietnam Luc Hens, Human Ecology Department, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium Journal Environmental Modeling and Assessment Online ISSN 1573-2967 Print ISSN 1420-2026

Description:    Yellow River, is designated as “the cradle of Chinese civilization” and played a key role not only in the country’s economic development but also in the historic and cultural identity of the Chinese people. With the rapid economic development and population growth, water demand for industry and households has increased significantly in the Yellow River basin; this has caused an increasing gap between water supply and demand. Competing water demands triggered conflicts between disparate water users on different scales such as the rich and the poor, or between different sectors and regions, such as domestic and agriculture, agriculture and industry, upstream and downstream, rural and urban areas, etc. Ensuring equity in water supply for conflicting water users is one of the major challenges that facing water managers and in particular water management in the Yellow River basin. In this paper, a method has been developed to calculate the Gini coefficient of water use as an indicator to measure the equality in domestic water supply. A dual domestic water use structure model is employed for this purpose. The developed method is subsequently applied to assess the equality in domestic water supply in the Yellow River. Data of population growth, domestic water use and economic development over the time period 1999-2006 are used to calculate the Gini coefficient of water use over the same length of period. The result shows a decreasing trend in Gini coefficient of domestic water use in the Yellow River basin after 2001 which means domestic water use is becoming more and more equitable in the basin. The study justifies that the Gini coefficient of water use can be used and recommended as a useful tool for the water management especially in the context of global change. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11027-011-9309-7 Authors Xiao-jun Wang, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China 210029 Jian-yun Zhang, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China 210029 Shamsuddin Shahid, Department of Geology, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, 50603 Malaysia Amgad ElMahdi, Urban Water Unit Head, Climate and Water Division, Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Melbourne, Australia Rui-min He, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China 210029 Xin-gong Wang, Yellow River Basin Water Resources Protection Bureau, Zhengzhou, China 450004 Mahtab Ali, Water Division, Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Perth, Australia Journal Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Online ISSN 1573-1596 Print ISSN 1381-2386

Description:    With growing evidence on how climate change impacts human health, public health agencies should develop adaptation programs focused on the impacts predicted to affect their jurisdictions. However, recent research indicates that public health agencies in the United States have done little to prepare the public for predicted climate change impacts, largely due in response to a lack of resources and priority. This study surveyed Environmental Health (EH) Directors across the United States to determine the extent to which individual level attitudes and beliefs influence the adoption of climate change adaptation programming in a department. The results indicate that an EH Director’s perception of the health risk posed by climate change explained 27% of the variance in the number of climate change impacts being addressed. Furthermore, the study found that environmental attitude and political views made strong, unique contributions in explaining the variance in risk perception. The results provide evidence that individual-level attitudes and beliefs, as well as organizational-level barriers influence the adoption of climate change adaptation programs in public health agencies. As a result, increasing EH Directors’ perception of risk by highlighting the likelihood and severity of localized impacts may increase the adoption of adaptation programming despite existing organizational barriers (e.g., lack of resources). Given the fact that risk perception has been shown to influence behavior across cultures, these findings are also useful for understanding the influence of individual decision makers on public health programming around the world. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11027-011-9302-1 Authors Sana S. Syal, School of Environment and Natural Resources, The Ohio State University, 2021 Coffey Road, Columbus, OH 43210, USA Robyn S. Wilson, School of Environment and Natural Resources, The Ohio State University, 2021 Coffey Road, Columbus, OH 43210, USA J. Mac Crawford, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, 320 W 10th Ave, Columbus, OH 43210, USA Jonathan Lutz, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, 320 W 10th Ave, Columbus, OH 43210, USA Journal Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Online ISSN 1573-1596 Print ISSN 1381-2386

Description:    The study has analysed the effects of various factors on hydroelectric power generation potential to include climate change/variability, water demand, and installation of proposed hydroelectric power schemes in the Zambezi River Basin. An assessment of historical (1970–2000) power potential in relation to climate change/variability at existing hydro electric power schemes(Cahora Bassa, Kariba, Kafue Gorge and Itezhi-Tezhi) in the Zambezi River Basin was conducted. The correlation of hydroelectric power potential with climate change/variability aimed at observing the link and extent of influence of the latter on the former was investigated. In order to predict the future outlook of hydro electric power potential, General Circulation Models (GCM) were used to generate projected precipitation. The monthly simulated precipitation was extracted from the GCM for every sub basin and used to compute future precipitation. Further, future water demand in the sub basins of the Zambezi River Basin were estimated based on the respective population growth rate in each sub basin. Subsequently, water balance model, with projected precipitation and water demand input was used to determine projected run-offs of sub basins of the Zambezi River Basin. .Based on the projected run-offs of sub basins, reservoir storage capacities at existing hydro electric power schemes were estimated. The baseline assessment revealed a strong relationship between hydroelectric power potential and climate change/variability. The study also revealed that the main climate and other risks associated with current and future hydro electric power generation include projected dry years, floods and increasing water demand. The results indicate that the hydroelectric power potential has a tendency towards gradual reduction in its potential in all existing and proposed hydroelectric power schemes owing to climate change and increasing water demand. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11027-011-9283-0 Authors Francis Davison Yamba, CEEEZ-Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering Zambia, Private Bag E 721, 176 Parirenyatwa Road, Suite B, Lusaka, Zambia Hartley Walimwipi, CEEEZ-Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering Zambia, Private Bag E 721, 176 Parirenyatwa Road, Suite B, Lusaka, Zambia Suman Jain, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Zambia, P.O. Box 32379, Lusaka, Zambia Peter Zhou, Energy, Environment, Computing and Geophysical Applications(EECG), Gaborone, Botswana Boaventura Cuamba, Department of Physics, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique Cornelius Mzezewa, EnerConsult Pvt Ltd, 21a Wilson Drive, P.O. Amby Greendale, Harare, Zimbabwe Journal Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Online ISSN 1573-1596 Print ISSN 1381-2386