ALBERT

Description: Recent work has suggested that in highly correlated systems, such as sandpiles, turbulent fluids, ignited trees in forest fires and magnetization in a ferromagnet close to a critical point, the probability distribution of a global quantity (i.e. total energy dissipation, magnetization and so forth) that has been normalized to the first two moments follows a specific non-Gaussian curve. This curve follows a form suggested by extremum statistics, which is specified by a single parameter a (a = 1 corresponds to the Fisher-Tippett Type I ("Gumbel") distribution). Here we present a framework for testing for extremal statistics in a global observable. In any given system, we wish to obtain a, in order to distinguish between the different Fisher-Tippett asymptotes, and to compare with the above work. The normalizations of the extremal curves are obtained as a function of a. We find that for realistic ranges of data, the various extremal distributions, when normalized to the first two moments, are difficult to distinguish. In addition, the convergence to the limiting extremal distributions for finite data sets is both slow and varies with the asymptote. However, when the third moment is expressed as a function of a, this is found to be a more sensitive method.

Description: Recent observations and analyses evidenced that the magnetotail, as well as the magnetospheric dynamics are characterised by a scale-free behaviour and intermittence. These results, along with numerical simulations on cellular automata, suggest that the observed scale-invariance may be due to forced and/or self-organised criticality (FSOC), meaning that the magnetotail operates near a marginally stable state (Chang, 1999). On the other hand, it was underlined that a complex magnetic field topology in the geotail regions may play a relevant role in the impulsive energy relaxation (Consolini and Chang, 2001.

Description: A basing of the diffusion approximation derivation for the Hasselmann kinetic integral describing nonlinear interactions of gravity waves in deep water is discussed. It is shown that the diffusion approximation containing the second derivatives of a wave spectrum in a frequency and angle (or in wave vector components) is resulting from a step-by-step analytical integration of the sixfold Hasselmann integral without involving the quasi-locality hypothesis for nonlinear interactions among waves. A singularity analysis of the integrand expression gives evidence that the approximation mentioned above is the small scattering angle approximation, in fact, as it was shown for the first time by Hasselmann and Hasselmann (1981). But, in difference to their result, here it is shown that in the course of diffusion approximation derivation one may obtain the final result as a combination of terms with the first, second, and so on derivatives. Thus, the final kind of approximation can be limited by terms with the second derivatives only, as it was proposed in Zakharov and Pushkarev (1999). For this version of diffusion approximation, a numerical testing of the approximation properties was carried out. The testing results give a basis to use this approximation in a wave modelling practice.

Description: Tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds, which generate tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones, which result in catastrophic floods, are the powerful cloud systems that contain huge amount of water. According to the hypothesis argued in this paper, an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the troposphere and in the instability of powerful clouds sometimes during rather a long time duration. Based on this hypothesis, a highly effective method of volume electric charge neutralization of powerful clouds is proposed. It results in the decrease in an electric field, a sudden increase in precipitation, and subsequent degradation of powerful clouds. This method, based on the natural phenomenon, ensures the prevention of the intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones and their transition to the storm and hurricane (typhoon) stages, which makes it possible to avoid catastrophic floods. It also ensures the suppression of severe thunderclouds, which, in turn, eliminates the development of dangerous thunderstorms and the possibility of the emergence and intensification of tornadoes.

Description: Magnetic reconnection is an important process providing a fast conversion of magnetic energy into thermal and kinetic plasma energy. In this concern, a key problem is that of the resistive diffusion region where the reconnection process is initiated. In this paper, the diffusion region is associated with a nonuniform conductivity localized to a small region. The nonsteady resistive incompressible MHD equations are solved numerically for the case of symmetric reconnection of antiparallel magnetic fields. A Petschek type steady-state solution is obtained as a result of time relaxation of the reconnection layer structure from an arbitrary initial stage. The structure of the diffusion region is studied for various ratios of maximum and minimum values of the plasma resistivity. The effective length of the diffusion region and the reconnection rate are determined as functions of the length scale and the maximum of the resistivity. For sufficiently small length scale of the resistivity, the reconnection rate is shown to be consistent with Petschek's formula. By increasing the resistivity length scale and decreasing the resistivity maximum, the reconnection layer tends to be wider, and correspondingly, the reconnection rate tends to be more consistent with that of the Parker-Sweet regime.

Description: The stationary self-focusing of whistler waves with frequencies near half of the electron-cyclotron frequency in the ionospheric plasma is considered in the framework of a two-dimensional generalized nonlinear Schrödinger equation including fourth-order dispersion effects and nonlinearity saturation. New types of soliton-like (with zero topological charge) and vortex-like nonlinear waveguides are found, and their stability confirmed both analytically and numerically.

Description: The scientific problems posed by the Earth's fluid envelope, and its atmosphere, oceans, and the land surface that interacts with them are central to major socio-economic and political concerns as we move into the 21st century. It is natural, therefore, that a certain impatience should prevail in attempting to solve these problems. The point of this review paper is that one should proceed with all diligence, but not excessive haste: "festina lente," as the Romans said two thousand years ago, i.e. "hurry in a measured way." The paper traces the necessary progress through the solutions to the ten problems: 1. What is the coarse-grained structure of low-frequency atmospheric variability, and what is the connection between its episodic and oscillatory description? 2. What can we predict beyond one week, for how long, and by what methods? 3. What are the respective roles of intrinsic ocean variability, coupled ocean-atmosphere modes, and atmospheric forcing in seasonal-to-interannual variability? 4. What are the implications of the answer to the previous problem for climate prediction on this time scale? 5. How does the oceans' thermohaline circulation change on interdecadal and longer time scales, and what is the role of the atmosphere and sea ice in such changes? 6. What is the role of chemical cycles and biological changes in affecting climate on slow time scales, and how are they affected, in turn, by climate variations? 7. Does the answer to the question above give us some trigger points for climate control? 8. What can we learn about these problems from the atmospheres and oceans of other planets and their satellites? 9. Given the answer to the questions so far, what is the role of humans in modifying the climate? 10. Can we achieve enlightened climate control of our planet by the end of the century? A unified framework is proposed to deal with these problems in succession, from the shortest to the longest timescale, i.e. from weeks to centuries and millennia. The framework is that of dynamical systems theory, with an emphasis on successive bifurcations and the ergodic theory of nonlinear systems. The main ideas and methods are outlined and the concept of a modelling hierarchy is introduced. The methodology is applied across the modelling hierarchy to Problem 5, which concerns the thermohaline circulation and its variability. Key words. Climate dynamics, nonlinear systems, numerical bifurcations, mathematical geophysics

Description: The study of the robust features of the magnetosphere is motivated both by new "whole system" approaches, and by the idea of "space climate" as opposed to "space weather". We enumerate these features for the AE index, and discuss whether self-organised criticality (SOC) is the most natural explanation of the "stylised facts" so far known for AE. We identify and discuss some open questions, answers to which will clarify the extent to which AE's properties provide evidence for SOC. We then suggest an SOC-like reconnection-based scenario drawing on the result of Craig (2001) as an explanation of the very recent demonstration by Uritsky et al. (2001b) of power laws in several properties of spatiotemporal features seen in auroral images.

Description: The propagation of long, weakly nonlinear internal waves in a stratified gas is studied. Hydrodynamic equations for an ideal fluid with the perfect gas law describe the atmospheric gas behaviour. If we neglect the term Ͽ dw/dt (product of the density and vertical acceleration), we come to a so-called quasistatic model, while we name the full hydro-dynamic model as a nonquasistatic one. Both quasistatic and nonquasistatic models are used for wave simulation and the models are compared among themselves. It is shown that a smooth classical solution of a nonlinear quasistatic problem does not exist for all t because a gradient catastrophe of non-linear internal waves occurs. To overcome this difficulty, we search for the solution of the quasistatic problem in terms of a generalised function theory as a limit of special regularised equations containing some additional dissipation term when the dissipation factor vanishes. It is shown that such solutions of the quasistatic problem qualitatively differ from solutions of a nonquasistatic nature. It is explained by the fact that in a nonquasistatic model the vertical acceleration term plays the role of a regularizator with respect to a quasistatic model, while the solution qualitatively depends on the regularizator used. The numerical models are compared with some analytical results. Within the framework of the analytical model, any internal wave is described as a system of wave modes; each wave mode interacts with others due to equation non-linearity. In the principal order of a perturbation theory, each wave mode is described by some equation of a KdV type. The analytical model reveals that, in a nonquasistatic model, an internal wave should disintegrate into solitons. The time of wave disintegration into solitons, the scales and amount of solitons generated are important characteristics of the non-linear process; they are found with the help of analytical and numerical investigations. Satisfactory coincidence of simulation outcomes with analytical ones is revealed and some examples of numerical simulations illustrating wave disintegration into solitons are given. The phenomenon of internal wave mixing is considered and is explained from the point of view of the results obtained. The numerical methods for internal wave simulation are examined. In particular, the influence of difference interval finiteness on a numerical solution is investigated. It is revealed that a numerical viscosity and numerical dispersion can play the role of regularizators to a nonlinear quasistatic problem. To avoid this effect, the grid steps should be taken less than some threshold values found theoretically.

Description: Operational forecasting is hampered both by the rapid divergence of nearby initial conditions and by error in the underlying model. Interest in chaos has fuelled much work on the first of these two issues; this paper focuses on the second. A new approach to quantifying state-dependent model error, the local model drift, is derived and deployed both in examples and in operational numerical weather prediction models. A simple law is derived to relate model error to likely shadowing performance (how long the model can stay close to the observations). Imperfect model experiments are used to contrast the performance of truncated models relative to a high resolution run, and the operational model relative to the analysis. In both cases the component of forecast error due to state-dependent model error tends to grow as the square-root of forecast time, and provides a major source of error out to three days. These initial results suggest that model error plays a major role and calls for further research in quantifying both the local model drift and expected shadowing times.

Description: Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected forecast skill. Several quantities derived from the local ensemble distribution are investigated for a two year data set of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) temperature and wind speed ensemble forecasts at 30 German stations. The results indicate that the population of the ensemble mode provides useful information for the uncertainty in temperature forecasts. The ensemble entropy is a similar good measure. This is not true for the spread if it is simply calculated as the variance of the ensemble members with respect to the ensemble mean. The number of clusters in the C regions is almost unrelated to the local skill. For wind forecasts, the results are less promising.

Description: A new viewpoint on the generation and maintenance of the Earth's magnetic field is put forward, which integrates self-exciting dynamo theory with the possibility of energy coupling along orthogonal axes provided by the Hall effect. A nonlinear third-order system is derived, with a fourth equation serving as an observer of unspecified geophysical processes which could result in field reversal. Lyapunov analysis proves that chaos is not intrinsic to this system. Relative constancy of one of the variables produces pseudo equilibrium in a second order subsystem and allows for self-excitation of the geomagnetic field. Electromagnetic analysis yields expressions for key parameters. Models for secular variations recorded at London, Palermo and at the Cape of Good Hope over the past four hundred years are offered. Offset of the Earth's magnetic axis from the geographic axis is central to time-varying declination, but its causes have not yet been established. Applicability of the model to the explanation of sunspot activity is outlined. A corroborating experiment published by Peter Barlow in 1831 is appended.

Description: The dynamics of the growth of linear disturbances to a chaotic basic state is analyzed in an asymptotic model of weakly nonlinear, baroclinic wave-mean interaction. In this model, an ordinary differential equation for the wave amplitude is coupled to a partial differential equation for the zonal flow correction. The leading Lyapunov vector is nearly parallel to the leading Floquet vector f1 of the lowest-order unstable periodic orbit over most of the attractor. Departures of the Lyapunov vector from this orientation are primarily rotations of the vector in an approximate tangent plane to the large-scale attractor structure. Exponential growth and decay rates of the Lyapunov vector during individual Poincaré section returns are an order of magnitude larger than the Lyapunov exponent l ≈ 0.016. Relatively large deviations of the Lyapunov vector from parallel to f1 are generally associated with relatively large transient decays. The transient growth and decay of the Lyapunov vector is well described by the transient growth and decay of the leading Floquet vectors of the set of unstable periodic orbits associated with the attractor. Each of these vectors is also nearly parallel to f1. The dynamical splitting of the complete sets of Floquet vectors for the higher-order cycles follows the previous results on the lowest-order cycle, with the vectors divided into wave-dynamical and decaying zonal flow modes. Singular vectors and singular values also generally follow this split. The primary difference between the leading Lyapunov and singular vectors is the contribution of decaying, inviscidly-damped wave-dynamical structures to the singular vectors.

Description: In this paper, we apply the principles of information theory that relate to the definition of nonlinear predictability, which is a measure that describes both the linear and nonlinear components of a system. By comparing this measure to a measure of linear predictability, one can assess whether a given system has a strong nonlinear or a strong linear component. This provides insights as to whether the system should be modelled by a nonlinear model or by a linear model. We apply these ideas to a known dynamical system and to a time series that describe the transitions in atmospheric circulation.

Description: The performance of the ARPA-SMR Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), generated by nesting a limited-area model on selected members of the ECMWF targeted ensemble, is evaluated for two flood events that occurred during September 1992. The predictability of the events is studied for forecast times ranging from 2 to 4 days. The extent to which floods localised in time and space can be forecast at high resolution in probabilistic terms was investigated. Rainfall probability maps generated by both LEPS and ECMWF targeted ensembles are compared for different precipitation thresholds in order to assess the impact of enhanced resolution. At all considered forecast ranges, LEPS performs better, providing a more accurate description of the event with respect to the spatio-temporal location, as well as its intensity. In both flood cases, LEPS probability maps turn out to be a very valuable tool to assist forecasters to issue flood alerts at different forecast ranges. It is also shown that at the shortest forecast range, the deterministic prediction provided by the limited area model, when run in a higher-resolution configuration, provides a very accurate rainfall pattern and a good quantitative estimate of the total rainfall deployed in the flooded regions.

Description: Two-dimensional unsteady incompressible flows in which the potential vorticity (PV) plays a key role are examined in this study, through the development of the evolution equation for the PV gradient. For the case where the PV is conserved, precise statements concerning topology-conservation are presented. While establishing some intuitively well-known results (the numbers of eddies and saddles is conserved), other less obvious consequences (PV patches cannot be generated, some types of Lagrangian and Eulerian entities are equivalent) are obtained. This approach enables an improvement on an integrability result for PV conserving flows (if there were no PV patches at time zero, the flow would be integrable). The evolution of the PV gradient is also determined for the nonconservative case, and a plausible experiment for estimating eddy diffusivity is suggested. The theory is applied to an analytical diffusive Rossby wave example.

Description: The solar wind is a highly turbulent and intermittent medium at frequencies between 10-4 and 10-1 Hz. Power spectra are used to look at fluctuations in the components of the magnetic field at high frequencies over a wide range of latitudes. Results show steady turbulence in the polar regions of the Sun and a more varied environment in the equatorial region. The magnetic field fluctuations exhibit anomalous scaling at high frequencies. Various models have been proposed in an attempt to better understand the scaling nature of such fluctuations in neutral fluid turbulence. We have used the Ulysses fast latitude scan data to perform a wide ranging comparison of three such models on the solar wind magnetic field data: the well-known P model, in both its Kolmogorov and Kraichnan forms, the lognormal cascade model and a model adapted from atmospheric physics, the G infinity model. They were tested by using fits to graphs of the structure function exponents g(q), by making a comparison with a non-linear measure of the deviation of g(q) from the non-intermittent straight line, and by using extended self similarity technique, over a large range of helio-latitudes. Tests of all three models indicated a high level of intermittency in the fast solar wind, and showed a varied structure in the slow wind, with regions of apparently little intermittency next to regions of high intermittency, implying that the slow wind has no uniform origin. All but one of the models performed well, with the lognormal and Kolmogorov P model performing the best over all the tests, indicating that inhomogeneous energy transfer in the cascade is a good description. The Kraichnan model performed relatively poorly, and the overall results show that the Kraichnan model of turbulence is not well supported over the frequency and distance ranges of our data set. The G infinity model fitted the results surprisingly well and showed that there may very well be important universal geometrical aspects of intermittency over many physical systems.

Description: The concept of the generalized entropy is analyzed, with the particular attention to the definition postulated by Tsallis [J. Stat. Phys. 52, 479 (1988)]. We show that the Tsallis entropy can be rigorously obtained as the solution of a nonlinear functional equation; this equation represents the entropy of a complex system via the partial entropies of the subsystems involved, and includes two principal parts. The first part is linear (additive) and leads to the conventional, Boltzmann, definition of entropy as the logarithm of the statistical weight of the system. The second part is multiplicative and contains all sorts of multilinear products of the partial entropies; inclusion of the multiplicative terms is shown to reproduce the generalized entropy exactly in the Tsallis sense. We speculate that the physical background for considering the multiplicative terms is the role of the long-range correlations supporting the "macroscopic" ordering phenomena (e.g., formation of the "coarse-grained" correlated patterns). We prove that the canonical distribution corresponding to the Tsallis definition of entropy, coincides with the so-called "kappa" redistribution which appears in many physical realizations. This has led us to associate the origin of the "kappa" distributions with the "macroscopic" ordering ("coarse-graining") of the system. Our results indicate that an application of the formalism based on the Tsallis notion of entropy might actually have sense only for the systems whose statistical weights, Ω, are relatively small. (For the "coarse-grained" systems, the weight \omega could be interpreted as the number of the "grains".) For large Ω (i.e., Ω -〉 ∞), the standard statistical mechanical formalism is advocated, which implies the conventional, Boltzmann definition of entropy as ln Ω.

Description: Three aspects of complexity are fractals, chaos, and self-organized criticality. There are many examples of the applicability of fractals in solid-earth geophysics, such as earthquakes and landforms. Chaos is widely accepted as being applicable to a variety of geophysical phenomena, for instance, tectonics and mantle convection. Several simple cellular-automata models have been said to exhibit self-organized criticality. Examples include the sandpile, forest fire and slider-blocks models. It is believed that these are directly applicable to landslides, actual forest fires, and earthquakes, respectively. The slider-block model has been shown to clearly exhibit deterministic chaos and fractal behaviour. The concept of self-similar cascades can explain self-organized critical behaviour. This approach also illustrates the similarities and differences with critical phenomena through association with the site-percolation and diffusion-limited aggregation models.

Description: An analysis of low order mode coupling equations is used to describe the nonlinear behaviour of the Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability in the equatorial ionosphere. The nonlinear evolution of RT instability leads to the development of shear flow. It is found that there is an interplay between the nonlinearity and the shear flow which compete with each other and saturate the RT mode, both in the collisionless and collisional regime. However, the nonlinearly saturated state, normally known as vortices or bubbles, may not be stable. Under certain condition these bubbles are shown to be unstable to short scale secondary instabilities that are driven by the large gradients which develop within these structures. Some understanding of the role of collisional nonlinearity in the  shear flow generations is also discussed.

Description: Cellular automaton versions of the Burridge-Knopoff model have been shown to reproduce the power law distribution of event sizes; that is, the Gutenberg-Richter law. However, they have failed to reproduce the occurrence of foreshock and aftershock sequences correlated with large earthquakes. We show that in the case of partial stress recovery due to transient creep occurring subsequently to earthquakes in the crust, such spring-block systems self-organize into a statistically stationary state characterized by a power law distribution of fracture sizes as well as by foreshocks and aftershocks accompanying large events. In particular, the increase of foreshock and the decrease of aftershock activity can be described by, aside from a prefactor, the same Omori law. The exponent of the Omori law depends on the relaxation time and on the spatial scale of transient creep. Further investigations concerning the number of aftershocks, the temporal variation of aftershock magnitudes, and the waiting time distribution support the conclusion that this model, even "more realistic" physics in missed, captures in some ways the origin of the size distribution as well as spatio-temporal clustering of earthquakes.

Description: The singular values associated with optimally growing perturbations to stationary and time-dependent solutions for the general circulation in an ocean basin provide a measure of the rate at which solutions with nearby initial conditions begin to diverge, and hence, a measure of the predictability of the flow. In this paper, the singular vectors and singular values of stationary and evolving examples of wind-driven, double-gyre circulations in different flow regimes are explored. By changing the Reynolds number in simple quasi-geostrophic models of the wind-driven circulation, steady, weakly aperiodic and chaotic states may be examined. The singular vectors of the steady state reveal some of the physical mechanisms responsible for optimally growing perturbations. In time-dependent cases, the dominant singular values show significant variability in time, indicating strong variations in the predictability of the flow. When the underlying flow is weakly aperiodic, the dominant singular values co-vary with integral measures of the large-scale flow, such as the basin-integrated upper ocean kinetic energy and the transport in the western boundary current extension. Furthermore, in a reduced gravity quasi-geostrophic model of a weakly aperiodic, double-gyre flow, the behaviour of the dominant singular values may be used to predict a change in the large-scale flow, a feature not shared by an analogous two-layer model. When the circulation is in a strongly aperiodic state, the dominant singular values no longer vary coherently with integral measures of the flow. Instead, they fluctuate in a very aperiodic fashion on mesoscale time scales. The dominant singular vectors then depend strongly on the arrangement of mesoscale features in the flow and the evolved forms of the associated singular vectors have relatively short spatial scales. These results have several implications. In weakly aperiodic, periodic, and stationary regimes, the mesoscale energy content is usually relatively low and the predictability of the wind-driven circulation is determined by the large-scale structure of the flow. In the more realistic, strongly chaotic regime, in which energetic mesoscale eddies are produced by the meandering of the separated western boundary current extension, the predictability of the flow locally tends to be a stronger function of the local mesoscale eddy structure than of the larger scale structure of the circulation. This has a broader implication for the effectiveness of different approaches to forecasting the ocean with models which sequentially assimilate new observations.

Description: We study the flow obtained from a three-layer, eddy-resolving quasigeostrophic ocean circulation model subject to an applied wind stress curl. For this model we will consider transport between the northern and southern gyres separated by an eastward jet. We will focus on the use of techniques from dynamical systems theory, particularly lobe dynamics, in the forming of geometric structures that govern transport. By "govern", we mean they can be used to compute Lagrangian transport quantities, such as the flux across the jet. We will consider periodic, quasiperiodic, and chaotic velocity fields, and thus assess the effectiveness of dynamical systems techniques in flows with progressively more spatio-temporal complexity. The numerical methods necessary to implement the dynamical systems techniques and the significance of lobe dynamics as a signature of specific "events", such as rings pinching off from a meandering jet, are also discussed.

Description: It is well known that the structure of magnetic field lines in solar wind can be influenced by the presence of the magnetohydrodynamic turbulence. We have developed a Monte Carlo simulation which traces the magnetic field lines in the heliosphere, including the effects of magnetic turbulence. These effects are modelled by random operators which are proportional to the square root of the magnetic field line diffusion coefficient. The modelling of the random terms is explained, in detail, in the case of numerical integration by discrete steps. Furthermore, a proper evaluation of the diffusion coefficient is obtained by a numerical simulation of transport in anisotropic magnetic turbulence. The scaling of the fluctuation level and of the correlation lengths with the distance from the Sun are also taken into account. As a consequence, plasma transport across the average magnetic field direction is obtained. An application to the propagation of energetic particles from corotating interacting regions to high heliographic latitudes is considered.

Description: A wind-driven numerical model of the Indian Ocean is used to examine the horizontal statistics of hundreds of passive tracers spread evenly over the model domain. The distribution covers several dynamically distinct regions, revealing a variety of Lagrangian behaviours associated with different geographic locations. In particular, a cluster of trajectories with scaling dimension as large as 1.3 exists throughout the equatorial zone. Spectral analysis of trajectory displacements indicates mixed Rossby-gravity waves are involved in the production of some fractal trajectories.

Description: In this paper we present a review of advances made and problems still existing in the application of the theory of chaos and dynamical systems to time series. In particular we discuss issues pertaining the estimation of dimensions, Lyapunov exponents and nonlinear prediction from an observable. We analyze the problems and discuss proper ways to deal with them.

Description: A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Description: Our intention in this work is to show, by using two different methods, that magnetospheric dynamics reveal low dimensional chaos. In the first method we extend the chaotic analysis for the AE index time series by including singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis in combination with Theiler's test in order to discriminate dynamical chaos from self-affinity or "crinkliness". The estimated fractality of the AE index time series which is obtained belongs to a strange attractor structure with close returns in the reconstructed phase space. In the second method we extend the linear equivalent magnetospheric electric circuit to a nonlinear one, the arithmetic solution of which reveals low dimensional chaotic dynamics. Both methods strongly support the existence of low dimensional magnetospheric chaos.

Description: Due to the local and global impacts of algae blooms and patchiness on water quality, carbon cycling and climate, models of plankton dynamics are of current interest. In this paper, the temporal and spatial patterns in natural plankton communities are interpreted as transient and stationary nonequilibrium solutions of dynamical nonlinear interaction-diffusion-advection systems. A simple model of phytoplankton-zooplankton dynamics (Scheffer, 1991) is presented in space and time. After summarizing the local properties as multiple stability and oscillations, the emergence of spatial and spatio- temporal patterns is considered, accounting also for diffusion and weak advection. In order to study the emergence and stability of these structures under hydrodynamic forcing, the interaction- diffusion-advection model is coupled to the hydrodynamic equations. It is shown, that the formation of nonequilibrium spatio-temporal density patterns due to the interplay of the deterministic nonlinear biological interactions and physical processes is a rare occurrence in rapidly flowing waters. The two-timing perturbation technique is applied to problems with very rapid single-directed steady flows. A channel under tidal forcing serves as and example for a system with a relatively high detention time of matter. Generally, due to the different time and length scales of planktic interactions, diffusion and transport, initial nonequilibrium plankton patches are simply moved through the system unless the strong hydrodynamic forces do not destroy them before.

Description: A two dimensional system of autonomous nonlinear ordinary differential equations models glacier growth and temperature changes on an idealized planet. We apply standard perturbative techniques from dynamical systems theory to study small amplitude periodic orbits about a constant equilibrium. The equations are put in cononical form and the local phase space topology is examined. Maximum and minimum periods of oscillation are obtained and related to the radius of the orbit. An adjacent equilibrium is shown to have saddle character and the inflowing and outflowing manifolds of this saddle are studied using numerical integration. The inflowing manifolds show the region of attraction for the periodic orbit. As the frequency gets small, the adjacent (saddle) equilibrium approaches the radius of the periodic orbit. The bifurcation of the periodic orbit to a stable homoclinic orbit is observed when an inflowing manifold and an outflowing manifold of the adjacent equilibrium cross.

Description: Fractal and occasionally multifractal behaviour has been invoked to characterize (independently of their magnitude) the spatial distribution of seismic epicenters, whereas more recently, the frequency distribution of magnitudes (irrespective of their spatial location) has been considered as a manifestation of Self-Organized Criticality (SOC). In this paper we relate these two aspects on rather general grounds, (i.e. in a model independent way), and further show that this involves a non-classical SOC. We consider the multifractal characteristics of the projection of the space-time seismic process onto the horizontal plane whose values are defined by the measured ground displacements, we show that it satisfies the requirements for a first order multifractal phase transition and by implication for a non-classical SOC. We emphasize the important consequences of the stochastic alternative to the classical (deterministic) SOC.

Description: A detailed nonlinear time series analysis has been made of two daytime geomagnetic pulsation events being recorded at L'Aquila (Italy, L ≈ 1.6) and Niemegk (Germany, L ≈ 2.3). Grassberger and Procaccia algorithm has been used to investigate the dimensionality of physical processes. Surrogate data test and self affinity (fractal) test have been used to exclude coloured noise with power law spectra. Largest Lyapunow exponents have been estimated using the methods of Wolf et al. The problems of embedding, stability of estimations, spurious correlations and nonlinear noise reduction have also been discussed. The main conclusions of this work, which include some new results on the geomagnetic pulsations, are (1) that the April 26, 1991 event, represented by two observatory time series LAQ1 and NGK1 is probably due to incoherent waves; no finite correlation dimension was found in this case, and (2) that the June 18, 1991 event represented by observatory time series LAQ2 and NGK2, is due to low dimensional nonlinear dynamics, which include deterministic chaos with correlation dimension D2(NGK2) = 2.25 ± 0.05 and D2(NDK2) = 2.02 ± 0.03, and with positive Lyapunov exponents λmax (LAQ2) = 0.055 ± 0.003 bits/s and λmax (NGK2) = 0.052 ± 0.003 bits/s; the predictability time in both cases is ≈ 13 s.

Description: Mirror mode turbulence is the lowest frequency perpendicular magnetic excitation in magnetized plasma proposed already about half a century ago by Rudakov and Sagdeev (1958) and Chandrasekhar et al. (1958) from fluid theory. Its experimental verification required a relatively long time. It was early recognized that mirror modes for being excited require a transverse pressure (or temperature) anisotropy. In principle mirror modes are some version of slow mode waves. Fluid theory, however, does not give a correct physical picture of the mirror mode. The linear infinitesimally small amplitude physics is described correctly only by including the full kinetic theory and is modified by existing spatial gradients of the plasma parameters which attribute a small finite frequency to the mode. In addition, the mode is propagating only very slowly in plasma such that convective transport is the main cause of flow in it. As the lowest frequency mode it can be expected that mirror modes serve as one of the dominant energy inputs into plasma. This is however true only when the mode grows to large amplitude leaving the linear stage. At such low frequencies, on the other hand, quasilinear theory does not apply as a valid saturation mechanism. Probably the dominant processes are related to the generation of gradients in the plasma which serve as the cause of drift modes thus transferring energy to shorter wavelength propagating waves of higher nonzero frequency. This kind of theory has not yet been developed as it has not yet been understood why mirror modes in spite of their slow growth rate usually are of very large amplitudes indeed of the order of |B/B0|2~O(1). It is thus highly reasonable to assume that mirror modes are instrumental for the development of stationary turbulence in high temperature plasma. Moreover, since the magnetic field in mirror turbulence forms extended though slightly oblique magnetic bottles, low parallel energy particles can be trapped in mirror modes and redistribute energy (cf. for instance, Chisham et al. 1998). Such trapped electrons excite banded whistler wave emission known under the name of lion roars and indicating that the mirror modes contain a trapped particle component while leading to the splitting of particle distributions (see Baumjohann et al., 1999) into trapped and passing particles. The most amazing fact about mirror modes is, however, that they evolve in the practically fully collisionless regime of high temperature plasma where it is on thermodynamic reasons entirely impossible to expel any magnetic field from the plasma. The fact that magnetic fields are indeed locally extracted makes mirror modes similar to "superconducting" structures in matter as known only at extremely low temperatures. Of course, microscopic quantum effects do not play a role in mirror modes. However, it seems that all mirror structures have typical scales of the order of the ion inertial length which implies that mirrors evolve in a regime where the transverse ion and electron motions decouple. In this case the Hall kinetics comes into play. We estimate that in the marginally stationary nonlinear state of the evolution of mirror modes the modes become stretched along the magnetic field with k||=0 and that a small number the order of a few percent of the particle density is responsible only for the screening of the field from the interior of the mirror bubbles.

Description: There is abundant observational evidence that the energization of plasma particles in space is correlated with an enhanced activity of large-scale MHD waves. Since these waves cannot interact with particles, we need to find ways for these MHD waves to transport energy in the dissipation range formed by small-scale or high-frequency waves, which are able to interact with particles. In this paper we consider the dissipation range formed by the kinetic Alfvén waves (KAWs) which are very short- wavelengths across the magnetic field irrespectively of their frequency. We study a nonlocal nonlinear mechanism for the excitation of KAWs by MHD waves via resonant decay AW(FW)→KAW1+KAW2, where the MHD wave can be either an Alfvén wave (AW), or a fast magneto-acoustic wave (FW). The resonant decay thus provides a non-local energy transport from large scales directly in the dissipation range. The decay is efficient at low amplitudes of the magnetic field in the MHD waves, B/B0~10-2. In turn, KAWs are very efficient in the energy exchange with plasma particles, providing plasma heating and acceleration in a variety of space plasmas. An anisotropic energy deposition in the field-aligned degree of freedom for the electrons, and in the cross-field degrees of freedom for the ions, is typical for KAWs. A few relevant examples are discussed concerning nonlinear excitation of KAWs by the MHD wave flux and consequent plasma energization in the solar corona and terrestrial magnetosphere.

Description: The principal objective of hydrodynamical-biological models is to provide estimates of the main carbon fluxes such as total and export oceanic production. These models are nitrogen based, that is to say that the variables are expressed in terms of their nitrogen content. Moreover models are calibrated using chlorophyll data sets. Therefore carbon to chlorophyll (C:Chl) and carbon to nitrogen (C:N) ratios have to be assumed. This paper addresses the problem of the representation of these ratios. In a 1D framework at the DYFAMED station (NW Mediterranean Sea) we propose a model which enables the estimation of the basic biogeochemical fluxes and in which the spatio-temporal variability of the C:Chl and C:N ratios is fully represented in a mechanical way. This is achieved through the introduction of new state variables coming from the embedding of a phytoplankton growth model in a more classical Redfieldian NNPZD-DOM model (in which the C:N ratio is assumed to be a constant). Following this modelling step, the parameters of the model are estimated using the adjoint data assimilation method which enables the assimilation of chlorophyll and nitrate data sets collected at DYFAMED in 1997.Comparing the predictions of the new Mechanistic model with those of the classical Redfieldian NNPZD-DOM model which was calibrated with the same data sets, we find that both models reproduce the reference data in a comparable manner. Both fluxes and stocks can be equally well predicted by either model. However if the models are coinciding on an average basis, they are diverging from a variability prediction point of view. In the Mechanistic model biology adapts much faster to its environment giving rise to higher short term variations. Moreover the seasonal variability in total production differs from the Redfieldian NNPZD-DOM model to the Mechanistic model. In summer the Mechanistic model predicts higher production values in carbon unit than the Redfieldian NNPZD-DOM model. In winter the contrary holds.

Description: In this paper, we present a detailed evaluation of cross wavelet analysis of bivariate time series. We develop a statistical test for zero wavelet coherency based on Monte Carlo simulations. If at least one of the two processes considered is Gaussian white noise, an approximative formula for the critical value can be utilized. In a second part, typical pitfalls of wavelet cross spectra and wavelet coherency are discussed. The wavelet cross spectrum appears to be not suitable for significance testing the interrelation between two processes. Instead, one should rather apply wavelet coherency. Furthermore we investigate problems due to multiple testing. Based on these results, we show that coherency between ENSO and NAO is an artefact for most of the time from 1900 to 1995. However, during a distinct period from around 1920 to 1940, significant coherency between the two phenomena occurs.

Description: We review some recent results that have been obtained in the investigation of collisionless reconnection in two dimensional magnetic configurations with a strong guide field in regimes of interest for laboratory plasmas. First we adopt a two-fluid dissipationless plasma model where the plasma evolution is described by the advection of two Lagrangian invariant fields. Then, we show that an analogous formulation in terms of Lagrangian invariants applies to the case where the electron response is obtained from a drift-kinetic model.

Description: We study the inference of long-range correlations by means of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and argue that power-law scaling of the fluctuation function and thus long-memory may not be assumed a priori but have to be established. This requires the investigation of the local slopes. We account for the variability characteristic for stochastic processes by calculating empirical confidence regions. Comparing a long-memory with a short-memory model shows that the inference of long-range correlations from a finite amount of data by means of DFA is not specific. We remark that scaling cannot be concluded from a straight line fit to the fluctuation function in a log-log representation. Furthermore, we show that a local slope larger than α=0.5 for large scales does not necessarily imply long-memory. We also demonstrate, that it is not valid to conclude from a finite scaling region of the fluctuation function to an equivalent scaling region of the autocorrelation function. Finally, we review DFA results for the Prague temperature data set and show that long-range correlations cannot not be concluded unambiguously.

Description: In this paper we investigate the stability of zonal flow in a baroclinic atmosphere with respect to finite-amplitude planetary-scale disturbances by applying Arnold's method. Specifically, we examine the sign of the second variation of a conserved functional for the case of a polytropic atmosphere (i.e. one with a linear lapse rate) and with a linear profile of zonal wind. Sufficient stability conditions for an infinite atmosphere (i.e. with a temperature lapse rate equal to zero) are satisfied only for an atmosphere in solid body rotation. For a polytropic atmosphere of finite extent (a lapse rate is not equal zero) the sufficient conditions of stability can be satisfied if a lid is placed below min (Zmax, polytropic atmospheric height). The dependence of height Zmax on values of the vertical gradient of the zonal wind and the zonal temperature distribution is calculated.

Description: This study presents a simple and efficient scheme for Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in soil moisture simulation by a Land Surface Model (LSM). The scheme is assessed within a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation framework based on the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. A primary limitation of using the GLUE method is the prohibitive computational burden imposed by uniform random sampling of the model's parameter distributions. Sampling is improved in the proposed scheme by stochastic modeling of the parameters' response surface that recognizes the non-linear deterministic behavior between soil moisture and land surface parameters. Uncertainty in soil moisture simulation (model output) is approximated through a Hermite polynomial chaos expansion of normal random variables that represent the model's parameter (model input) uncertainty. The unknown coefficients of the polynomial are calculated using limited number of model simulation runs. The calibrated polynomial is then used as a fast-running proxy to the slower-running LSM to predict the degree of representativeness of a randomly sampled model parameter set. An evaluation of the scheme's efficiency in sampling is made through comparison with the fully random MC sampling (the norm for GLUE) and the nearest-neighborhood sampling technique. The scheme was able to reduce computational burden of random MC sampling for GLUE in the ranges of 10%-70%. The scheme was also found to be about 10% more efficient than the nearest-neighborhood sampling method in predicting a sampled parameter set's degree of representativeness. The GLUE based on the proposed sampling scheme did not alter the essential features of the uncertainty structure in soil moisture simulation. The scheme can potentially make GLUE uncertainty estimation for any LSM more efficient as it does not impose any additional structural or distributional assumptions.

Description: A novel mechanism for the short-scale Rossby waves interacting with long-scale zonal flows in the Earth's atmosphere is studied. The model is based on the parametric excitation of convective cells by finite amplitude Rossby waves. We use a set of coupled equations describing the nonlinear interaction of Rossby waves and zonal flows which admits the excitation of zonal flows. The generation of such flows is due to the Reynolds stresses of the finite amplitude Rossby waves. It is found that the wave vector of the fastest growing mode is perpendicular to that of the pump Rossby wave. We calculate the maximum instability growth rate and deduce the optimal spatial dimensions of the zonal flows as well as their azimuthal propagation speed. A comparison with previous results is made. The present theory can be used for the interpretation of existing observations of Rossby type waves in the Earth's atmosphere.

Description: We report on recent measurements of solitary waves made by the Wideband Plasma Wave Receiver located on each of the four Cluster spacecraft at 4.5-6.5RE (well above the auroral acceleration region) as they cross field lines that map to the auroral zones. These solitary waves are observed in the Wideband data as isolated bipolar and tripolar waveforms. Examples of the two types of pulses are provided. The time durations of the majority of both types of solitary waves observed in this region range from about 0.3 up to 5ms. Their peak-to-peak amplitudes range from about 0.05 up to 20mV/m, with a few reaching up to almost 70mV/m. There is essentially no potential change across the bipolar pulses. There appears to be a small, measurable potential change, up to 0.5V, across the tripolar pulses, which is consistent with weak or hybrid double layers. A limited cross-spacecraft correlation study was carried out in order to identify the same solitary wave on more than one spacecraft. We found no convincing correlations of the bipolar solitary waves. In the two cases of possible correlation of the tripolar pulses, we found that the solitary waves are propagating at several hundred to a few thousand km/s and that they are possibly evolving (growing, decaying) as they propagate from one spacecraft to the next. Further, they have a perpendicular (to the magnetic field) width of 50km or greater and a parallel width of about 2-5km. We conclude, in general, however, that the Cluster spacecraft at separations along and perpendicular to the local magnetic field direction of tens of km and greater are too large to obtain positive correlations in this region. Looking at the macroscale of the auroral zone at 4.5-6.5RE, we find that the onsets of the broadband electrostatic noise associated with the solitary waves observed in the spectrograms of the WBD data are generally consistent with propagation of the solitary waves up the field lines (away from Earth), or with particles or waves propagating up the field line, which leads to local generation of the solitary waves all along the field lines. A discussion of the importance of these solitary waves in magnetospheric processes and their possible generation mechanisms, through electron beam instabilities and turbulence, is provided.

Description: The question of which length scale equation to use in models of turbulence has long been controversial and several approaches have been suggested and used in the past. In this paper, we demonstrate that all these approaches are equivalent and the inconsistencies in the use of some of these approaches arise from improper modeling of the diffusion term in the length scale equation. We formulate a general length scale equation, which encompasses all current approaches. This equation is devoid of inconsistencies and should prove useful in its general form, or one of its subsets, in turbulence closure modeling.

Description: Particle motion is considered in incompressible two-dimensional flows consisting of a steady background gyre on which an unsteady wave-like perturbation is superimposed. A dynamical systems point of view that exploits the action-angle formalism is adopted. It is argued and demonstrated numerically that for a large class of problems one expects to observe a mixed phase space, i.e. the occurrence of "regular islands" in an otherwise "chaotic sea". This leads to patchiness in the evolution of passive tracer distributions. Also, it is argued and demonstrated numerically that particle trajectory stability is largely controlled by the background flow: trajectory instability, quantified by various measures of the "degree of chaos", increases on average with increasing , where is the angular frequency of the trajectory in the background flow and I is the action.

Description: The Lagrangian prediction skill (model ability to reproduce Lagrangian drifter trajectories) of the nowcast/forecast system developed for the Gulf of Mexico at the University of Colorado at Boulder is examined through comparison with real drifter observations. Model prediction error (MPE), singular values (SVs) and irreversible-skill time (IT) are used as quantitative measures of the examination. Divergent (poloidal) and nondivergent (toroidal) components of the circulation attractor at 50m depth are analyzed and compared with the Lagrangian drifter buoy data using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and the measures, respectively. Irregular (probably, chaotic) dynamics of the circulation attractor reproduced by the nowcast/forecast system is analyzed through Lyapunov dimension, global entropies, toroidal and poloidal kinetic energies. The results allow assuming exponential growth of prediction error on the attractor. On the other hand, the q-th moment of MPE grows by the power law with exponent of 3q/4. The probability density function (PDF) of MPE has a symmetrical but non-Gaussian shape for both the short and long prediction times and for spatial scales ranging from 20km to 300km. The phenomenological model of MPE based on a diffusion-like equation is developed. The PDF of IT is non-symmetric with a long tail stretched towards large ITs. The power decay of the tail was faster than 2 for long prediction times.

Description: The coastal ocean may experience periods of fluctuating along-shelf wind direction, causing shifts between upwelling and downwelling conditions with responses that are not symmetric. We seek to understand these asymmetries and their implications on the Eulerian and Lagrangian flows. We use a two-dimensional (variations across-shelf and with depth; uniformity along-shelf) primitive equation numerical model to study shelf flows in the presence of periodic, zero-mean wind stress forcing. The model bathymetry and initial stratification is typical of the broad, shallow shelf off Duck, NC during summer. After an initial transient adjustment, the response of the Eulerian fields is nearly periodic. Despite the symmetric wind stress forcing, there exist both mean Eulerian and Lagrangian flows. The mean Lagrangian displacement of parcels on the shelf depends both on their initial location and on the initial phase of the forcing. Eulerian mean velocities, in contrast, have almost no dependence on initial phase. In an experiment with sinusoidal wind stress forcing of maximum amplitude 0.1Nm and period of 6 days, the mean Lagrangian across-shelf displacements are largest in the surface and bottom boundary layers. Parcels that originate near the coast in the top 15m experience complicated across-shelf and vertical motion that does not display a clear pattern. Offshore of this region in the top 10m a rotating cell feature exists with offshore displacement near the surface and onshore displacement below. A mapping technique is used to help identify the qualitative characteristics of the Lagrangian motion and to clarify the long time nature of the parcel displacements. The complexity of the Lagrangian motion in a region near the coast and the existence of a clear boundary separating this region from a more regular surface cell feature offshore are quantified by a calculation from the map of the largest Lyapunov exponent.

Description: In analogy to the study of critical phase transitions in statistical physics, it has been argued recently that the fracture of heterogeneous materials could be viewed as a critical phenomenon, either at laboratory or at geophysical scales. If the picture of the development of the fracture is correct one may guess that the precursors may reveal the critical approach of the main-shock. When a heterogeneous material is stretched, its evolution towards breaking is characterized by the appearance of microcracks before the final  break-up. Microcracks produce both acoustic and electromagnetic(EM) emission in the frequency range from VLF to VHF. The microcracks and the associated acoustic and EM activities constitute the so-called precursors of general fracture. These precursors are detectable not only at laboratory but also at geophysical scales. VLF and VHF acoustic and EM emissions have been reported resulting from volcanic and seismic activities in various geologically distinct regions of the world. In the present work we attempt to establish the hypothesis that the evolution of the Earth's crust towards the critical point takes place not only in a mechanical but also in an electromagnetic sense. In other words, we focus on the possible electromagnetic criticality, which is reached while the catastrophic rupture in the Earth's crust approaches. Our main tool is the monitoring of micro-fractures that occur before the final breakup, by recording their radio-electromagnetic emissions. We show that the spectral power law analysis of the electromagnetic precursors reveals distinguishing signatures of underlying critical dynamics, such as: (i) the emergence of memory effects; (ii) the decrease with time of the anti-persistence behaviour; (iii) the presence of persistence properties in the tail of the sequence of the precursors; and (iv) the acceleration of the precursory electro-magnetic energy release. Moreover, the statistical analysis of the amplitudes of the electromagnetic fluctuations reveals the breaking of the symmetry as the theory predicts. Finally, we try to answer the question: how universal the observed electromagnetic critical behaviour of the failing system is?

Description: A 3D-variational data assimilation scheme for a quasi-geostrophic channel model (Morss, 1998) is used to study the structure of the background error and its relationship to the corresponding bred vectors. The "true" evolution of the model atmosphere is defined by an integration of the model and "rawinsonde observations" are simulated by randomly perturbing the true state at fixed locations. Case studies using different observational densities are considered to compare the evolution of the Bred Vectors to the spatial structure of the background error. In addition, the bred vector dimension (BV-dimension), defined by Patil et al. (2001) is applied to the bred vectors. It is found that after 3-5 days the bred vectors develop well organized structures which are very similar for the two different norms (enstrophy and streamfunction) considered in this paper. When 10 surrogate bred vectors (corresponding to different days from that of the background error) are used to describe the local patterns of the background error, the explained variance is quite high, about 85-88%, indicating that the statistical average properties of the bred vectors represent well those of the background error. However, a subspace of 10 bred vectors corresponding to the time of the background error increased the percentage of explained variance to 96-98%, with the largest percentage when the background errors are large. These results suggest that a statistical basis of bred vectors collected over time can be used to create an effective constant background error covariance for data assimilation with 3D-Var. Including the "errors of the day" through the use of bred vectors corresponding to the background forecast time can bring an additional significant improvement.

Description: Ensemble forecasts are run operationally since February 1998 at the Canadian Meteorological Centre, with outputs up to ten days. The ensemble size was increased from eight to sixteen members in August 1999. The method of producing the perturbed analyses consists of running independent assimilation cycles that use perturbed sets of observations and are driven by eight different models, mainly different in their physical parameterizations. Perturbed analyses are doubled by taking opposite pairs. A multi-model approach is then used to obtain the forecasts. The ensemble output has been used to generate several products. In view of increasing computing facilities, the ensemble prediction system horizontal resolution was increased to TL149 in June 2001. Heights at 500 hPa and mean sea-level pressure maps are regularly used. Charts of precipitation with the probability of precipitation being above various thresholds are also produced at each run. The probabilistic forecast of the 24-h accumulated precipitation has shown skill as demonstrated by the relative operating characteristic (ROC). Verifications of the ensemble forecasts will be presented.

Description: One-dimensional open-boundary simulations have been carried out in a current-carrying plasma seeded with a neutral density depression and with no initial electric field. These simulations show the development of a variety of nonlinear localized electric field structures: double layers (unipolar localized fields), fast electron phase-space holes (bipolar fields) moving in the direction of electrons accelerated by the double layer and trains of slow alternating electron and ion phase-space holes (wave-like fields) moving in the direction of ions accelerated by the double layer. The principal new result in this paper is to show by means of a linear stability analysis that the slow-moving trains of electron and ion holes are likely to be the result of saturation via trapping of a kinetic-Buneman instability driven by the interaction of accelerated ions with unaccelerated electrons.

Description: Interaction of two long-crested shallow water waves is analysed in the framework of the two-soliton solution of the Kadomtsev-Petviashvili equation. The wave system is decomposed into the incoming waves and the interaction soliton that represents the particularly high wave hump in the crossing area of the waves. Shown is that extreme surface elevations up to four times exceeding the amplitude of the incoming waves typically cover a very small area but in the near-resonance case they may have considerable extension. An application of the proposed mechanism to fast ferries wash is discussed.

Description: A numerical analysis is made on the appearance of oceanic internal solitary waves in a multi-modal setting. This is done for observed profiles of stratification from the Sulu Sea and the Bay of Biscay, in which thermocline motion is dominated by the first and third mode, respectively. The results show that persistent solitary waves occur only in the former case, in accordance with the observations. In the Bay of Biscay much energy is transferred from the third mode to lower modes, implying that a uni-modal approach would not have been appropriate. To elaborate on these results in a systematic way, a simple model for the stratification is used; an interpretation is given in terms of regimes of thermocline strength.

Description: The instability patterns in the flow between counter-rotating disks (radius to height ratio R/h from 3.8 to 20.9) are investigated experimentally by means of visualization and Particle Image Velocimetry. We restrict ourselves to the situation where the boundary layers remain stable, focusing on the shear layer instability that occurs only in the counter-rotating regime. The associated pattern is a combination of a circular chain of vortices, as observed by Lopez et al. (2002) at low aspect ratio, surrounded by a set of spiral arms, first described by Gauthier et al. (2002) in the case of high aspect ratio. Stability curve and critical modes are measured for the whole range of aspect ratios. From the measurement of a local Reynolds number based on the shear layer thickness, evidence is given that a free shear layer instability, with only weak curvature effect, is responsible for the observed patterns. Accordingly, the number of vortices is shown to scale as the shear layer radius, which results from the competition between the centrifugal effects of each disk.

Description: The geometric aspects of HF-generated Langmuir turbulence in the ionosphere and its detection by radars are theoretically discussed in a broad approach, including local modelling (damped and driven Zakharov system), basic parametric instabilities, polarization and strength of the driving electric field, and radar configurations. Selected examples of numerical results from the local model are presented and discussed in relation to recent experiments, with emphasis on recent experiments at the EISCAT facilities. Anisotropic aspects of the cavitation process in the magnetized plasma are exhibited. Basic processes of cascades and cavitation are by now well identified in these experiments, but a few problems of the detailed agreement between theory and experiments are pointed out.

Description: We develop the theory of cyclic Markov chains and apply it to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability problem. At the core of Markov chain modelling is a partition of the state space such that the transition rates between different state space cells can be computed and used most efficiently. We apply a partition technique, which divides the state space into multidimensional cells containing an equal number of data points. This partition leads to mathematical properties of the transition matrices which can be exploited further such as to establish connections with the dynamical theory of unstable periodic orbits. We introduce the concept of most and least predictable states. The data basis of our analysis consists of a multicentury-long data set obtained from an intermediate coupled atmosphere-ocean model of the tropical Pacific. This cyclostationary Markov chain approach captures the spring barrier in ENSO predictability and gives insight also into the dependence of ENSO predictability on the climatic state.

Description: An estimation of the difference in TEC prediction accuracy achieved when the prediction varies from 1 h to 7 days in advance is described using classical neural networks. Hourly-daily Faraday-rotation derived TEC measurements from Florence are used. It is shown that the prediction accuracy for the examined dataset, though degrading when time span increases, is always high. In fact, when a relative prediction error margin of ± 10% is considered, the population percentage included therein is almost always well above the 55%. It is found that the results are highly dependent on season and the dataset wealth, whereas they highly depend on the foF2 - TEC variability difference and on hysteresis-like effect between these two ionospheric characteristics.

Description: The results of a genetic algorithm optimization of the WINDMI model using the Blanchard-McPherron substorm data set is presented. A key result from the large-scale computations used to search for convergence in the predictions over the database is the finding that there are three distinct types of vx Bs -AL waveforms characterizing substorms. Type I and III substorms are given by the internally-triggered WINDMI model. The analysis reveals an additional type of event, called a type II substorm, that requires an external trigger as in the northward turning of the IMF model of Lyons (1995). We show that incorporating an external trigger, initiated by a fast northward turning of the IMF, into WINDMI, a low-dimensional model of substorms, yields improved predictions of substorm evolution in terms of the AL index. Intrinsic database uncertainties in the timing between the ground-based AL electrojet signal and the arrival time at the magnetopause of the IMF data measured by spacecraft in the solar wind prevent a sharp division between type I and II events. However, within these timing limitations we find that the fraction of events is roughly 40% type I, 40% type II, and 20% type III.

Description: The propagation of nonlinear surface waves in channels of smoothly variable in space cross section is studied theoretically and by means of numerical computations. The mathematical model describing wave evolution is based on the generalized Korteweg-de Vries equation with additional terms due to spatial inhomogeneity and energy dissipation. Specifically we consider channels of variable depth and width. The breaking of Riemann waves and the disintegration of hydraulic jumps into trains of solitons have been examined. The results obtained can be useful in particular for the understanding some peculiarities of bore (mascaret) formation, viscous evolution and disintegration into solitons in inhomogeneous channels or rivers.

Description: The goal of this study is to compare the performances of the ensemble Kalman filter and a reduced-rank extended Kalman filter when applied to different dynamic regimes. Data assimilation experiments are performed using an eddy-resolving quasi-geostrophic model of the wind-driven ocean circulation. By changing eddy viscosity, this model exhibits two qualitatively distinct behaviors: strongly chaotic for the low viscosity case and quasi-periodic for the high viscosity case. In the reduced-rank extended Kalman filter algorithm, the model is linearized with respect to the time-mean from a long model run without assimilation, a reduced state space is obtained from a small number (100 for the low viscosity case and 20 for the high viscosity case) of leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) derived from the long model run without assimilation. Corrections to the forecasts are only made in the reduced state space at the analysis time, and it is assumed that a steady state filter exists so that a faster filter algorithm is obtained. The ensemble Kalman filter is based on estimating the state-dependent forecast error statistics using Monte Carlo methods. The ensemble Kalman filter is computationally more expensive than the reduced-rank extended Kalman filter.The results show that for strongly nonlinear case, chaotic regime, about 32 ensemble members are sufficient to accurately describe the non-stationary, inhomogeneous, and anisotropic structure of the forecast error covariance and the performance of the reduced-rank extended Kalman filter is very similar to simple optimal interpolation and the ensemble Kalman filter greatly outperforms the reduced-rank extended Kalman filter. For the high viscosity case, both the reduced-rank extended Kalman filter and the ensemble Kalman filter are able to significantly reduce the analysis error and their performances are similar. For the high viscosity case, the model has three preferred regimes, each with distinct energy levels. Therefore, the probability density of the system has a multi-modal distribution and the error of the ensemble mean for the ensemble Kalman filter using larger ensembles can be larger than with smaller ensembles.

Description: Numerical models of earthquake rupture are used to investigate characteristic length scales and size distributions of repeated earthquakes on vertical, planar fault segments. The models are based on exact solutions of static three-dimensional (3-D) elasticity. Dynamical rupture is approximated by allowing the static stress field to expand from slip motions at a single velocity. To show how the vertical fault width affects earthquake size distributions for a broad range of fault behaviors, two different fault strength models are used; a smooth model and a heterogeneous asperity model. The smooth model is a simplified version of the Dieterich-Ruina rate and state dependent friction law. The heterogeneous asperity model uses a slip-dependent random powerlaw strength distribution. It is shown that the characteristic scale of fault segmentation is proportional to the vertical width of a seismogenic fault. This conclusion holds for both the smooth and the heterogeneous models. For the smooth models characteristic quake distributions result, with populations of large events that are obviously distinct from smaller events. The distributions of large events have well-defined mean lengths and moments. The heterogeneous models result in Gutenberg-Richter (GR) powerlaw distributions of event sizes up to a characteristic quake size. Quakes larger than the characteristic size fall off the GR distribution such that the powerlaw would greatly overestimate the probability of occurrence of the larger events.

Description: The elastic response of many rocks to quasistatic stress changes is highly nonlinear and hysteretic, displaying discrete memory. Rocks also display unusual nonlinear response to dynamic stress changes. A model to describe the elastic behavior of rocks and other consolidated materials is called the Preisach-Mayergoyz (PM) space model. In contrast to the traditional analytic approach to stress-strain, the PM space picture establishes a relationship between the quasistatic data and a number density of hysteretic mesoscopic elastic elements in the rock. The number density allows us to make quantitative predictions of dynamic elastic properties. Using the PM space model, we analyze a complex suite of quasistatic stress-strain data taken on Berea sandstone. We predict a dynamic bulk modulus and a dynamic shear modulus surface as a function of mean stress and shear stress. Our predictions for the dynamic moduli compare favorably to moduli derived from time of flight measurements. We derive a set of nonlinear elastic constants and a set of constants that describe the hysteretic behavior of the sandstone.

Description: We present a parametric study of electrostatic waves generated with angular frequencies 2 wp,e and - wp,e by an electron beam using a one-dimensional Vlasov code. We consider a background plasma consisting of three components: two electron populations (a background and a beam) and a proton population (with a mass ratio mp /me = 400 and temperatures Tp = Te = T ). We investigate the influence of different beam parameters on the nonlinear growth rate of waves with angular frequency 2wp,e and compare the results of the numerical experiments to theoretical predictions. We also examine the presence and excitation of back propagating waves with angular frequency wp,e. A discussion on the possible generating mechanisms of the different modes observed in these simulations is also presented.

Description: Knowledge of the structure of the coronal magnetic field is important for our understanding of many solar activity phenomena, e.g. flares and CMEs. However, the direct measurement of coronal magnetic fields is not possible with present methods, and therefore the coronal field has to be extrapolated from photospheric measurements. Due to the low plasma beta the coronal magnetic field can usually be assumed to be approximately force free, with electric currents flowing along the magnetic field lines. There are both observational and theoretical reasons which suggest that at least prior to an eruption the coronal magnetic field is in a nonlinear force free state. Unfortunately the computation of nonlinear force free fields is way more difficult than potential or linear force free fields and analytic solutions are not generally available. We discuss several methods which have been proposed to compute nonlinear force free fields and focus particularly on an optimization method which has been suggested recently. We compare the numerical performance of a newly developed numerical code based on the optimization method with the performance of another code based on an MHD relaxation method if both codes are applied to the reconstruction of a semi-analytic nonlinear force-free solution. The optimization method has also been tested for cases where we add random noise to the perfect boundary conditions of the analytic solution, in this way mimicking the more realistic case where the boundary conditions are given by vector magnetogram data. We find that the convergence properties of the optimization method are affected by adding noise to the boundary data and we discuss possibilities to overcome this difficulty.

Description: A model of vortex with embedded discontinuities in plasma flow is developed in the framework of ideal MHD in a low b plasma. Vortex structures are considered as a result of 2-D evolution of nonlinear shear Alfvén waves in the heliosphere. Physical properties of the solutions and vector fields are analyzed and the observational aspects of the model are discussed. The ratio of normal components to the discontinuity Br /Vr can be close to -2. The alignment between velocity and magnetic field vectors takes place. Spacecraft crossing such vortices will typically observe a pair of discontinuities, but with dissimilar properties. Occurrence rate for different discontinuity types is estimated and agrees with observations in high-speed solar wind stream. Discontinuity crossing provides a backward rotation of magnetic field vector and can be observed as part of a backward arc. The Ulysses magnetometer data obtained in the fast solar wind are compared with the results of theoretical modelling.

Description: In this paper we test different approaches to the statistical post-processing of gridded numerical surface air temperatures (provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) onto the temperature measured at surface weather stations located in the Italian region of Puglia. We consider simple post-processing techniques, like correction for altitude, linear regression from different input parameters and Kalman filtering, as well as a neural network training procedure, stabilised (i.e. driven into the absolute minimum of the error function over the learning set) by means of a Simulated Annealing method. A comparative analysis of the results shows that the performance with neural networks is the best. It is encouraging for systematic use in meteorological forecast-analysis service operations.

Description: A lot of discrete configurations for the four-wave nonlinear interaction processes have been calculated and tested by the method proposed earlier in the frame of the concept of Fast Discrete Interaction Approximation to the Hasselmann's kinetic integral (Polnikov and Farina, 2002). It was found that there are several simple configurations, which are more efficient than the one proposed originally in Hasselmann et al. (1985). Finally, the optimal multiple Discrete Interaction Approximation (DIA) to the kinetic integral for deep-water waves was found. Wave spectrum features have been intercompared for a number of different configurations of DIA, applied to a long-time solution of kinetic equation. On the basis of this intercomparison the better efficiency of the configurations proposed was confirmed. Certain recommendations were given for implementation of new approximations to the wave forecast practice.

Description: Because of the implications for plasmas in the laboratory and in space, attention has been drawn to inhomogeneous energy-density driven (IEDD) waves that are sustained by velocity-shear-induced inhomogeneity in cross-field plasma flow. These waves have a frequency vr in the lab frame within an order of magnitude of the ion gyrofrequency vci, propagate nearly perpendicular to the magnetic field (kz /k^ v1/kz 〉 nd for a pair of IEDD eigenmodes is observed as the degree of in-homogeneity in the transverse E × B flow is increased in a magnetized plasma column. For weaker velocity shear, both eigenmodes are dissipative, i.e. in Landau resonance, with kz nd 〉 0. For stronger shear, both eigenmodes become reactive, with one's wavevector component kz remaining parallel, but with v1/kz 〉 nd , and the other's wavevector component kz becoming anti-parallel, so that 0 〉 v1/kz . For both eigenmodes, the transition (1) involves a small frequency shift and (2) does not involve a sign change in the wave energy density, which is proportional to vr v1, both of which are previously unrecognized aspects of inhomogeneous energy-density driven waves.

Description: Non-equilibrium quasi-stationary states resulting from curvature driven interchange instabilities and drift-wave instabilities in a low beta, weakly ionized, magnetized plasma are investigated in the context of laboratory experiments in a toroidal configuration. Analytic modelling, numerical simulations and experimental results are discussed with emphasis on identifying the unstable modes and understanding the physics of anomalous particle and energy fluxes and their linkage to self-organized pressure profiles.

Description: This paper concisely summarizes and critically reviews recent work by the authors on models of the heating of the solar corona by resonance of ions with high-frequency waves (up to the proton cyclotron frequency). The quasi-linear theory of pitch angle diffusion is presented in connection with relevant solar wind proton observations. Hybrid fluid-kinetic model equations, which include wave-particle interactions and collisions, are derived. Numerical solutions are discussed, representative of the inner corona and near-Sun solar wind. A semi-kinetic model for reduced velocity distributions is presented, yielding kinetic results for heavy ions in the solar corona. It is concluded that a self-consistent treatment of particle distributions and wave spectra is required, in order to adequately describe coronal physics and to obtain agreement with observations.

Description: The thermal conductivity of mantle materials has two components, the lattice component klat from phonons and the radiative component krad due to photons. These two contributions of variable thermal conductivity have a nonlinear dependence in the temperature, thus endowing the temperature equation in mantle convection with a strongly nonlinear character. The temperature derivatives of these two mechanisms have different signs, with ∂klat /∂T negative and dkrad /dT positive. This offers the possibility for the radiative conductivity to control the chaotic boundary layer instabilities developed in the deep mantle. We have parameterized the weight factor between krad and klat with a dimensionless parameter f , where f = 1 corresponds to the reference conductivity model. We have carried out two-dimensional, time-dependent calculations for variable thermal conductivity but constant viscosity in an aspect-ratio 6 box for surface Rayleigh numbers between 106 and 5 × 106. The averaged Péclet 〈 Pe 〉 numbers of these flows lie between 200 and 2000. Along the boundary in f separating the chaotic and steady-state solutions, the 〈 Pe 〉 number decreases and the Nusselt number increases with internal heating, illustrating the feedback between internal heating and radiative thermal conductivity. For purely basal heating situation, the time-dependent chaotic flows become stabilized for values of f of between 1.5 and 2. The bottom thermal boundary layer thickens and the surface heat flow increases with larger amounts of radiative conductivity. For magnitudes of internal heating characteristic of a chondritic mantle, much larger values of f , exceeding 10, are required to quench the bottom boundary layer instabilities. By isolating the individual conductive mechanisms, we have ascertained that the lattice conductivity is partly responsible for inducing boundary layer instabilities, while the radiative conductivity and purely depth-dependent conductivity exert a stabilizing influence and help to control thermal chaos developed in the deep mantle. These results have been verified to exist also in three-dimensional geometry and would argue for the need to consider the potentially important role played by radiative thermal conductivity in controlling chaotic flows in time-dependent mantle convection, the mantle heat transfer, the number of hotspots and the attendant mixing of geochemical anomalies.

Description: Local scaling and singularity properties of solar wind and geomagnetic time series were analysed using Hölder exponents . It was shown that in analysed cases due to the multifractality of fluctuations, α changes from point to point. We argued there exists a peculiar interplay between regularity/irregularity and amplitude characteristics of fluctuations which could be exploited for the improvement of predictions of geomagnetic activity. To this end, a layered back-propagation artificial neural network model with feedback connection was used for the study of the solar wind magnetosphere coupling and prediction of the geomagnetic Dst index. The solar wind input was taken from the principal component analysis of the interplanetary magnetic field, proton density and bulk velocity. Superior network performance was achieved in cases when the information on local Hölder exponents was added to the input layer.

Description: An oscillating grids turbulence generator was constructed for studies of two new effects associated with turbulent transport of particles, turbulent thermal diffusion and clustering instability. These effects result in formation of large-scale and small-scale inhomogeneities in the spatial distribution of particles. The advantage of this experimental set-up is the feasibility to study turbulent transport in mixtures with controllable composition and unlimited observation time. For flow measurements we used Particle Image Velocimetry with the adaptive multi-pass algorithm to determine a turbulent velocity field and its statistical characteristics. Instantaneous velocity vector maps, flow streamlines and probability density function of velocity field demonstrate properties of turbulence generated in the device.

Description: Magnetic fluctuations are recognized in a large variety of space plasmas by increasingly high resolution, in situ observations as mirror wave mode structures. A typical requirement for the excitation of mirror modes is a dominant perpendicular pressure in a high-beta plasma environment. Contrary, we demonstrate from a realistic kinetic analysis how details of the velocity space distributions are of considerable significance for the instability threshold. Introducing the most common characteristics of observed ion and electron distributions by a mixed suprathermal-loss-cone, we derive a universal mirror instability criterion from an energy principle for collisionless plasmas. As a result, the transition from two temperature Maxwellians to realistic non-thermal features provides a strong source for the generation of mirror wave mode activity, reducing drastically the instability threshold. In particular, a number of space-related examples illuminate how the specific structure of the velocity space distribution dominates as a regulating excitation mechanism over the effects related to changes in the plasma parameters.

Description: We investigate the nature of nonlinear waves propagating transverse to the magnetic field in a bi-ion plasma including plasma pressure. By using the conservation laws derived from the multi-ion fluid equations the system may be described by a single order differential equation whose properties control the structure of the flow and the magnetic field. Compressive solitons exist in specific ranges of the characteristic Mach numbers. Various features of solitons differ in different existence "windows". For example, there are solitons that contain a strong proton rarefaction core embedded in the main compressional structure. Compressive solitons are found in a wide range of flow parameters. Finite ion pressure introduces critical Mach numbers. In contrast to a plasma consisting only of protons and electrons these singular points are reached where a specific combination of ion and electron speeds lies on particular locii, in multi-parameter space, which corresponds to the generalized "sonic point" of the compound system.

Description: In this paper, we show that the behavior of weakly nonlinear waves in a 2-layer model of baroclinic instability on a b-plane with varying viscosity is determined by a single, degenerate codimension three bifurcation. In the process, we show how previous studies, using the method of multiple scales to derive evolution equations for the slowly varying amplitude of the growing wave, arise as special limits of the general evolution description.

Description: In the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe an experiment has been constructed which demonstrates a homogeneous dynamo as is expected to exist in the Earth's interior. This experiment is discussed within the framework of mean-field dynamo theory. The main predictions of this theory are explained and compared with the experimental results. Key words. Dynamo, geodynamo, dynamo experiment, mean-field dynamo theory, a-effect

Description: Neutral interstellar H-atoms penetrate into the inner heliosphere and upon the event of ionization are converted into pick-up ions (PUIs). The magnetized solar wind flow incorporates these ions into the plasma bulk and enforces their co-motion. By nonlinear interactions with wind-entrained Alfvén waves, these ions are then processed in the comoving velocity space. The complete pick-up process is connected with forces acting back to the original solar wind ion flow, thereby decelerating and heating the solar wind plasma. As we show here, the resulting deceleration cannot be treated as a pure loading effect, but requires adequate consideration of the action of the pressure of PUI-scattered waves operating by the PUI pressure gradient. Hereby, it is important to take into proper account the stochastic acceleration which PUIs suffer from at their convection out of the inner heliosphere by quasi-linear interactions with MHD turbulences. Only then can the presently reported VOYAGER observations of solar wind decelerations and heatings in the outer heliosphere be understood in view of the most likely values of interstellar gas parameters, such as an H-atom density of 0.12 cm-3 . Solar wind protons (SWPs) appear to be globally heated in their motion to larger solar distances. Ascribing the needed heat transfer to the action of suprathermal PUIs, which drive MHD waves that are partly absorbed by SWPs, in order to establish the observed SWP polytropy, we can obtain a quantitative expression for the solar wind proton pressure as a function of solar distance. This expression clearly shows the change from an adiabatic to a quasi-polytropic SWP behaviour with a decreasing polytropic index at increasing distances. This also allows one to calculate the average percentage of initial pick-up energy fed into the thermal proton energy. In a first order evaluation of this expression, we can estimate that about 10% of the initial PUI injection energy is eventually transfered to SWPs independent of the PUI injection rate.

Description: Modulation of short surface ripples by long surface or internal waves by a cascade mechanism is considered. At the first stage, the orbital velocity of the long wave (LW) adiabatically modulates an intermediate length nonlinear gravity wave (GW), which generates a bound (parasitic) capillary wave (CW) near its crest in a wide spatial frequency band. Due to strong dependence of the CW amplitude on that of the GW, the resulting ripple modulation by LW can be strong. Adiabatic modulation at the first stage is calculated for an arbitrarily strong LW current. The CWs are calculated based on the Lonquet-Higgins theory, in the framework of a steady periodic solution, which proves to be sufficient for the cases considered. Theoretical results are compared with data from laboratory experiments. A discussion of related sea clutter data is given in the conclusion.

Description: One of the interesting observations from the FAST satellite is the detection of strong spiky waveforms in the parallel electric field in association with ion cyclotron oscillations in the perpendicular electric fields. We report here an analytical model of the coupled nonlinear ion cyclotron and ion-acoustic waves, which could explain the observations. Using the fluid equations for the plasma consisting of warm electrons and cold ions, a nonlinear wave equation is derived in the rest frame of the propagating wave for any direction of propagation oblique to the ambient magnetic field. The equilibrium bulk flow of ions is also included in the model to mimic the field-aligned current. Depending on the wave Mach number M defined by M = V/Cs with V and Cs being the wave phase velocity and ion-acoustic speed, respectively, we find a range of solutions varying from a sinusoidal wave form for small amplitudes and low M to sawtooth and highly spiky waveforms for nearly parallel propagation. The results from the model are compared with the satellite observations.

Description: This paper presents the analysis of symmetric circulations of a rotating baroclinic flow, forced by a steady thermal wind and dissipated by Laplacian friction. The analysis is performed with numerical time-integration. Symmetric flows, vertically bound by horizontal walls and subject to either periodic or vertical wall lateral boundary conditions, are investigated in the region of parameter-space where unstable small amplitude modes evolve into stable stationary nonlinear solutions. The distribution of solutions in parameter-space is analysed up to the threshold of chaotic behaviour and the physical nature of the nonlinear interaction operating on the finite amplitude unstable modes is investigated. In particular, analysis of time-dependent energy-conversions allows understanding of the physical mechanisms operating from the initial phase of linear instability to the finite amplitude stable state. Vertical shear of the basic flow is shown to play a direct role in injecting energy into symmetric flow since the stage of linear growth. Dissipation proves essential not only in limiting the energy of linearly unstable modes, but also in selecting their dominant space-scales in the finite amplitude stage.

Description: We have studied a hybrid model combining the forest-fire model with the site-percolation model in order to better understand the earthquake cycle. We consider a square array of sites. At each time step, a "tree" is dropped on a randomly chosen site and is planted if the site is unoccupied. When a cluster of "trees" spans the site (a percolating cluster), all the trees in the cluster are removed ("burned") in a "fire." The removal of the cluster is analogous to a characteristic earthquake and planting "trees" is analogous to increasing the regional stress. The clusters are analogous to the metastable regions of a fault over which an earthquake rupture can propagate once triggered. We find that the frequency-area statistics of the metastable regions are power-law with a negative exponent of two (as in the forest-fire model). This is analogous to the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of seismicity. This "self-organized critical behavior" can be explained in terms of an inverse cascade of clusters. Small clusters of "trees" coalesce to form larger clusters. Individual trees move from small to larger clusters until they are destroyed. This inverse cascade of clusters is self-similar and the power-law distribution of cluster sizes has been shown to have an exponent of two. We have quantified the forecasting of the spanning fires using error diagrams. The assumption that "fires" (earthquakes) are quasi-periodic has moderate predictability. The density of trees gives an improved degree of predictability, while the size of the largest cluster of trees provides a substantial improvement in forecasting a "fire."

Description: In a recent paper on the theory of the Earth's magnetic field and key features of Sunspot activity (de Paor, 2001), a central role in the calculation of secular variations of the geomagnetic field was played by a newly-introduced parameter called the deflection (abbreviated def ). In this note, the significance of def is elucidated and the method used to calculate it is explained.

Description: This paper presents new results for 1D BGK electron solitary wave (phase-space electron hole) solutions and, based on the new results, extends the solutions to include the 3D electrical interaction (E ~ 1/r 2) of charged particles. Our approach for extending to 3D is to solve the nonlinear 3D Poisson and 1D Vlasov equations based on a key feature of 1D electron hole (EH) solutions; the positive core of an EH is screened by electrons trapped inside the potential energy trough. This feature has not been considered in previous studies. We illustrate this key feature using an analytical model and argue that the feature is independent of any specific model. We then construct azimuthally symmetric EH solutions under conditions where electrons are highly field-aligned and ions form a uniform background along the magnetic field. Our results indicate that, for a single humped electric potential, the parallel cut of the perpendicular component of the electric field (E⊥) is unipolar and that of the parallel component (E||) bipolar, reproducing the multi-dimensional features of the solitary waves observed by the FAST satellite. Our analytical solutions presented in this article capture the 3D electric interaction and the observed features of (E|| ) and E⊥. The solutions predict a dependence of the parallel width-amplitude relation on the perpendicular size of EHs. This dependence can be used in conjunction with experimental data to yield an estimate of the typical perpendicular size of observed EHs; this provides important information on the perpendicular span of the source region as well as on how much electrostatic energy is transported by the solitary waves.

Description: Variations of the plasma pressure in a magnetic flux tube can produce MHD waves evolving into shocks. In the case of a low plasma beta, plasma pressure pulses in the magnetic flux tube generate MHD slow shocks propagating along the tube. For converging magnetic field lines, such as in a dipole magnetic field, the cross section of the magnetic flux tube decreases enormously with increasing magnetic field strength. In such a case, the propagation of MHD waves along magnetic flux tubes is rather different from that in the case of uniform magnetic fields. In this paper, the propagation of MHD slow shocks is studied numerically using the ideal MHD equations in an approximation suitable for a thin magnetic flux tube with a low plasma beta. The results obtained in the numerical study show that the jumps in the plasma parameters at the MHD slow shock increase greatly while the shock is propagating in the narrowing magnetic flux tube. The results are applied to the case of the interaction between Jupiter and its satellite Io, the latter being considered as a source of plasma pressure pulses.

Description: A three-wave model of auroral radio emissions near the electron plasma frequency was proposed by Chian et al. (1994) involving resonant interactions of Langmuir, whistler and Alfvén waves. Chaos can occur in the nonlinear evolution of this three-wave process in the magnetosphere. In particular, two types of intermittency, due to either local or global bifurcations, can be observed. We analyze the type-I Pomeau-Manneville intermittency, arising from a saddle-node bifurcation, and the crisis-induced intermittency, arising from an interior crisis associated with a global bifurcation. Examples of time series, power spectrum, phase-space trajectory for both types of intermittency are presented through computer simulations. The degree of chaoticity of this three-wave process is characterized by calculating the maximum Lyapunov exponent. We suggest that the intermit-tent phenomena discussed in this paper may be observed in the temporal signal of magnetospheric radio emissions.

Description: We study properties of nonlinear magnetic fluctuations in the turbulent boundary layer (TBL) over polar cusps during a typical TBL crossing on 19 June 1998. Interball-1data in the summer TBL are compared with that of Geotail in solar wind (SW) and Polar in the northern TBL. In the TBL two characteristic slopes are seen: ~ - 1 at (0.004- 0.08) Hz and ~ - 2.2 at (0.08-2) Hz. We present evidences that random current sheets with features of coherent solitons can result in: (i) slopes of ~ - 1 in the magnetic power spectra; (ii) demagnetization of the SW plasma in "diamagnetic bubbles"; (iii) nonlinear, presumably, 3-wave phase coupling with cascade features; (iiii) departure from the Gaussian statistics. We discuss the above TBL properties in terms of intermittency and self-organization of nonlinear systems, and compare them with kinetic simulations of reconnected current sheet at the nonlinear state. Virtual satellite data in the model current sheet reproduce valuable cascade-like spectral and bi-spectral properties of the TBL turbulence.

Description: An impulse-based model is developed to represent a coupling between turbulent flow in the atmosphere and turbulent flow in the ocean. In particular, it is argued that the atmosphere flowing horizontally over the ocean surface generates a velocity fluctuation field in the latter's near-surface flow. The mechanism for this can be understood kinematically in terms of an exchange of tangentially-oriented fluid impulse at the air-sea interface. We represent this exchange numerically through the creation of Lagrangian elements of impulse density. An indication of the efficacy of such a model would lie in its ability to predict the observed fractal dimension of lateral trajectories of submerged floats set adrift in the ocean. To this end, we examine the geometry of lateral tracer-paths determined from the present model.

Description: Idealised global circulation model simulations with circumpolar and localised (one and two) storm tracks are re-analysed to determine scaling, intermittency and phase-space structures. In a hundred year experiment with a circumpolar storm track, the spectrum S(f ) of the first principal component of the zonal wind fluctuations shows the following power law regimes: (a) a short-term memory between f- -4 and f  -2 up to 50 days and (b) a long-term memory f -1 from 50 to 400 days and f -0.24 beyond 400 days, similar to observed maritime single station near-surface air temperature data. In the presence of localised storm tracks, the wave number two dominates the dynamics and a long-term memory cannot be detected. The recurrence plot is introduced as a novel tool to comprehensively visualise the evolution of the dynamical system in terms of state separations (distances) in phase space. The patterns allow for a qualitative interpretation of the underlying local phenomena in phase space, such as waves, analogs, extremes, and global regimes. Attractor dimensions are, in general, larger than 10, but they appear to be lower in the wave-dominated regimes of the double storm track experiment.

Description: We investigate the evolution of magnetic helicity under kinetic magnetic reconnection in thin current sheets. We use Harris sheet equilibria and superimpose an external magnetic guide field. Consequently, the classical 2D magnetic neutral line becomes a field line here, causing a B ≠ 0 reconnection. While without a guide field, the Hall effect leads to a quadrupolar structure in the perpendicular magnetic field and the helicity density, this effect vanishes in the B ≠ 0 reconnection. The reason is that electrons are magnetized in the guide field and the Hall current does not occur. While a B = 0 reconnection leads just to a bending of the field lines in the reconnection area, thus conserving the helicity, the initial helicity is reduced for a B ≠ 0 reconnection. The helicity reduction is, however, slower than the magnetic field dissipation. The simulations have been carried out by the numerical integration of the Vlasov-equation.

Description: Taking into account the pressure anisotropy in the solar wind, we study the magnetic field and plasma parameters downstream of a fast shock, as functions of upstream parameters and downstream pressure anisotropy. In our theoretical approach, we model two cases: a) the perpendicular shock and b) the oblique shock. We use two threshold conditions of plasma instabilities as additional equations to bound the range of pressure anisotropy. The criterion of the mirror instability is used for pressure anisotropy p \perp /p\parrallel 〉 1. Analogously, the criterion of the fire-hose instability is taken into account for pressure anisotropy p \perp /p\parrallel 〈 1. We found that the variations of the parallel pressure, the parallel temperature, and the tangential component of the velocity are most sensitive to the pressure anisotropy downstream of the shock. Finally, we compare our theory with plasma and magnetic field parameters measured by the WIND spacecraft.

Description: A description of a deterministic chaotic system in terms of unstable periodic orbits (UPO) is used to develop a method of an a priori estimate of the sensitivity of statistical averages of the solution to small external influences. This method allows us to determine the forcing perturbation which maximizes the norm of the perturbation of a statistical moment of the solution on the attractor. The method was applied to the barotropic ocean model in order to determine the perturbation of the wind field which provides the greatest perturbation of the model's climate. The estimates of perturbations of the model's time mean solution and its mean variance were compared with directly calculated values. The comparison shows that some 20 UPOs is sufficient to realize this approach and to obtain a good accuracy.

Description: Multi-petal, rotating vortices can form in two-dimensional flows consisting of an inviscid incompressible fluid under certain conditions. Such vortices are principally nonlinear thermo-hydrodynamical structures. The proper rotation of these structures which leads to time-dependent variations of the associated temperature field can be enregistred by a stationary observer. The problem is analyzed in the framework of the contour dynamics method (CDM). An analytical solution of the reduced equation for a contour curvature is found. We give a classification of the solutions and compare the obtained results with observational data.

Description: One approach recently proposed in order to improve the forecast of weather events, such as cyclogenesis, is to increase the number of observations in areas depending on the flow configuration. These areas are obtained using, for example, the sensitivity to initial conditions of a selected predicted cyclone. An alternative or complementary way is proposed here. The idea is to employ such an adjoint sensitivity field as a local structure function within variational data assimilation, 3D-Var in this instance. Away from the sensitive area, observation increments project on the initial fields with the usual climatological (or weakly flow-dependent, in the case of 4D-Var) structure functions. Within the sensitive area, the gradient fields are projected using all the available data in the zone, conventional or extra, if any. The formulation of the technique is given and the approach is further explained by using a simple 1D scheme. The technique is implemented in the ARPEGE/IFS code and applied to 11 FASTEX (Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment) cyclone cases, together with the targeted observations performed at the time of the campaign. The new approach is shown to allow for the desired stronger impact of the available observations and to systematically improve the forecasts of the FASTEX cyclones, unlike the standard 3D-Var.

Description: This paper applies the Hamiltonian Approach (HA) to two-dimensional motions of incompressible fluid in curvi-linear coordinates, in particular on a sphere. The HA has been used to formulate governing equations of motion and to interpret the evolution of a system consisting of N localized two-dimensional vortices on a sphere. If the number of vortices N is large,  N ~ 102 - 103 , a small number of vortex collective structures (clusters) is formed. The surprise is that a quasi-final state does not correspond to completely disorganized distribution of vorticity. Numerical analysis has been carried out for initial conditions taken in the form of a few axisymmetric chains of point vortices distributed initially in fixed latitudes. The scheme of Runge-Kutta of 4th order has been used for simulating an evolution of resulting flows. The numerical analysis shows that the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability appears immediately formating initial disorganized structures which are developed and finally "bursted". The system evolves to a few separated vortex "spots" which exist sufficiently for a long time.