ALBERT

Beschreibung: The Mediterranean Sea system: a review and an introduction to the special issue Ocean Science, 9, 789-803, 2013 Author(s): T. Tanhua, D. Hainbucher, K. Schroeder, V. Cardin, M. Álvarez, and G. Civitarese The Mediterranean Sea is a semi-enclosed sea characterized by high salinities, temperatures and densities. The net evaporation exceeds the precipitation, driving an anti-estuarine circulation through the Strait of Gibraltar, contributing to very low nutrient concentrations. The Mediterranean Sea has an active overturning circulation, one shallow cell that communicates directly with the Atlantic Ocean, and two deep overturning cells, one in each of the two main basins. It is surrounded by populated areas and is thus sensitive to anthropogenic forcing. Several dramatic changes in the oceanographic and biogeochemical conditions have been observed during the past several decades, emphasizing the need to better monitor and understand the changing conditions and their drivers. During 2011 three oceanographic cruises were conducted in a coordinated fashion in order to produce baseline data of important physical and biogeochemical parameters that can be compared to historic data and be used as reference for future observational campaigns. In this article we provide information on the Mediterranean Sea oceanographic situation, and present a short review that will serve as background information for the special issue in Ocean Science on "Physical, chemical and biological oceanography of the Mediterranean Sea". An important contribution of this article is the set of figures showing the large-scale distributions of physical and chemical properties along the full length of the Mediterranean Sea.

Beschreibung: Corrigendum to "NEMO on the shelf: assessment of the Iberia–Biscay–Ireland configuration" published in Ocean Sci., 9, 745–771, 2013 Ocean Science, 9, 787-787, 2013 Author(s): C. Maraldi, J. Chanut, B. Levier, N. Ayoub, P. De Mey, G. Reffray, F. Lyard, S. Cailleau, M. Drévillon, E. A. Fanjul, M. G. Sotillo, P. Marsaleix, and the Mercator Research and Development Team No abstract available.

Beschreibung: Beyond multifractional Brownian motion: new stochastic models for geophysical modelling Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 643-655, 2013 Author(s): J. Lévy Véhel Multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) has proved to be a useful tool in various areas of geophysical modelling. Although a versatile model, mBm is of course not always an adequate one. We present in this work several other stochastic processes which could potentially be useful in geophysics. The first alternative type is that of self-regulating processes : these are models where the local regularity is a function of the amplitude, in contrast to mBm where it is tuned exogenously. We demonstrate the relevance of such models for digital elevation maps and for temperature records. We also briefly describe two other types of alternative processes, which are the counterparts of mBm and of self-regulating processes when the intensity of local jumps is considered in lieu of local regularity: multistable processes allow one to prescribe the local intensity of jumps in space/time, while this intensity is governed by the amplitude for self-stabilizing processes .

Beschreibung: Non-extensivity and long-range correlations in the earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift (Greece) Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 713-724, 2013 Author(s): G. Michas, F. Vallianatos, and P. Sammonds In the present work the statistical properties of the earthquake activity in a highly seismic region, the West Corinth rift (Central Greece), are being studied by means of generalized statistical physics. By using a dataset that covers the period 2001–2008, we investigate the earthquake energy distribution and the distribution of the time intervals (interevent times) between the successive events. As has been reported previously, these distributions exhibit complex statistical properties and fractality. By using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), a well-established method for detection of long-range correlations in non-stationary signals, it is shown that long-range correlations are also present in the earthquake activity. The existence of these properties motivates us to use non-extensive statistical physics (NESP) to investigate the statistical properties of the frequency-magnitude and the interevent time distributions, along with other well-known relations in seismology, such as the gamma distribution for interevent times. The results of the analysis indicate that the statistical properties of the earthquake activity can be successfully reproduced by means of NESP and that the earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift is correlated at all-time scales.

Beschreibung: The impact of initial spread calibration on the RELO ensemble and its application to Lagrangian dynamics Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 621-641, 2013 Author(s): M. Wei, G. Jacobs, C. Rowley, C. N. Barron, P. Hogan, P. Spence, O. M. Smedstad, P. Martin, P. Muscarella, and E. Coelho A number of real-time ocean model forecasts were carried out successfully at Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) to provide modeling support and numerical guidance to the CARTHE GLAD at-sea experiment during summer 2012. Two RELO ensembles and three single models using NCOM and HYCOM with different resolutions were carried out. A calibrated ensemble system with enhanced spread and reliability was developed to better support this experiment. The calibrated ensemble is found to outperform the un-calibrated ensemble in forecasting accuracy, skill, and reliability for all the variables and observation spaces evaluated. The metrics used in this paper include RMS error, anomaly correlation, PECA, Brier score, spread reliability, and Talagrand rank histogram. It is also found that even the un-calibrated ensemble outperforms the single forecast from the model with the same resolution. The advantages of the ensembles are further extended to the Lagrangian framework. In contrast to a single model forecast, the RELO ensemble provides not only the most likely Lagrangian trajectory for a particle in the ocean, but also an uncertainty estimate that directly reflects the complicated ocean dynamics, which is valuable for decision makers. The examples show that the calibrated ensemble with more reliability can capture trajectories in different, even opposite, directions, which would be missed by the un-calibrated ensemble. The ensembles are applied to compute the repelling and attracting Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs), and the uncertainties of the LCSs, which are hard to obtain from a single model forecast, are estimated. It is found that the spatial scales of the LCSs depend on the model resolution. The model with the highest resolution produces the finest, small-scale, LCS structures, while the model with lowest resolution generates only large-scale LCSs. The repelling and attracting LCSs are found to intersect at many locations and create complex mesoscale eddies. The fluid particles and drifters in the middle of these tangles are subject to attraction and repulsion simultaneously from these two kinds of LCSs. As a result, the movements of particles near the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) location are severely limited. This is also confirmed by the Lagrangian trajectories predicted by the ensembles.

Beschreibung: Multifractal properties of embedded convective structures in orographic precipitation: toward subgrid-scale predictability Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 605-620, 2013 Author(s): M. Nogueira, A. P. Barros, and P. M. A. Miranda Rain and cloud fields produced by fully nonlinear idealized cloud resolving numerical simulations of orographic convective precipitation display statistical multiscaling behavior, implying that multifractal diagnostics should provide a physically robust basis for the downscaling and sub-grid scale parameterizations of moist processes. Our results show that the horizontal scaling exponent function (and respective multiscaling parameters) of the simulated rainfall and cloud fields varies with atmospheric and terrain properties, particularly small-scale terrain spectra, atmospheric stability, and advective timescale. This implies that multifractal diagnostics of moist processes for these simulations are fundamentally transient, exhibiting complex nonlinear behavior depending on atmospheric conditions and terrain forcing at each location. A particularly robust behavior found here is the transition of the multifractal parameters between stable and unstable cases, which has a clear physical correspondence to the transition from stratiform to organized (banded and cellular) convective regime. This result is reinforced by a similar behavior in the horizontal spectral exponent. Finally, our results indicate that although nonlinearly coupled fields (such as rain and clouds) have different scaling exponent functions, there are robust relationships with physical underpinnings between the scaling parameters that can be explored for hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling.

Beschreibung: A top-down model to generate ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 683-704, 2013 Author(s): P. R. Furey, V. K. Gupta, and B. M. Troutman We hypothesize that total hillslope water loss for a rainfall–runoff event is inversely related to a function of a lognormal random variable, based on basin- and point-scale observations taken from the 21 km 2 Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) in Mississippi, USA. A top-down approach is used to develop a new runoff generation model both to test our physical-statistical hypothesis and to provide a method of generating ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes in a basin. The model is based on the assumption that the probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio have a space–time rescaling property. We test this assumption using streamflow and rainfall data from GCEW. For over 100 rainfall–runoff events, we find that the spatial probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio can be rescaled to a new distribution that is common to all events. We interpret random within-event differences in runoff/loss ratios in the model to arise from soil moisture spatial variability. Observations of water loss during events in GCEW support this interpretation. Our model preserves water balance in a mean statistical sense and supports our hypothesis. As an example, we use the model to generate ensembles of runoff at a large number of hillslopes for a rainfall–runoff event in GCEW.

Beschreibung: A mechanism for catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation for sparse observation networks Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 705-712, 2013 Author(s): G. A. Gottwald and A. J. Majda We study catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation procedures whereby the forecast model develops severe numerical instabilities leading to a blow-up of the solution. Catastrophic filter divergence can occur in sparse observational grids with small observational noise for intermediate observation intervals and finite ensemble sizes. Using a minimal five-dimensional model, we establish that catastrophic filter divergence is a numerical instability of the underlying forecast model caused by the filtering procedure producing analyses which are not consistent with the true dynamics, and stiffness caused by the fast attraction of the inconsistent analyses towards the attractor during the forecast step.

Beschreibung: Sub-inertial modulation of nonlinear Kelvin waves in the coastal zone Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 357-364, 2013 Author(s): D. V. Stepanov and V. V. Novotryasov Observational evidence is presented for interaction between nonlinear internal Kelvin waves at the ω t,i (where the ω t is the semidiurnal frequency and the ω i is the inertial frequency) and random oscillations of the background coastal current at the sub-inertial Ω frequency in the Japan/East Sea. Enhanced coastal currents at the sum ω + and difference ω-frequencies ω ± =ω t,i ± Ω have properties of propagating Kelvin waves, which suggests permanent energy exchange from the sub-inertial band to the mesoscale ω ± band. This interaction may be responsible for a greater-than-predicted intensification, steepening and breaking of boundary-trapped Kelvin waves. The problem of interaction between the nonlinear Kelvin wave at the frequency ω and the low-frequency narrowband noise with representative frequency Ω≪ω is investigated using the theory of nonlinear weak dispersion waves.

Beschreibung: ENSO components of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and their relation to North Atlantic interannual coastal sea level anomalies Ocean Science, 9, 535-543, 2013 Author(s): J. Park and G. Dusek The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are known to influence coastal water levels along the East Coast of the United States. By identifying empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), which coherently contribute from the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) to the AMO index (AMOI), we characterize both the expression of ENSO in the unsmoothed AMOI, and coherent relationships between these indices and interannual sea level anomalies at six stations in the Gulf of Mexico and western North Atlantic. Within the ENSO band (2–7 yr periods) the total contribution of MEI to unsmoothed AMOI variability is 79%. Cross correlation suggests that the MEI leads expression of the ENSO signature in the AMOI by six months, consistent with the mechanism of an atmospheric bridge. Within the ENSO band, essentially all of the coupling between the unsmoothed AMOI and sea level anomalies is the result of ENSO expression in the AMOI. At longer periods we find decadal components of sea level anomalies linked to the AMOI at three southern stations (Key West, Pensacola, Charleston), but not at the northern stations (Baltimore, Boston, Portland), with values of coherence ranging from 20 to 50%. The coherence of MEI to coastal sea level anomalies has a different structure and is generally weaker than that of the ENSO expressed AMOI influence, suggesting distinct physical mechanisms are influencing sea level anomalies due to a direct ENSO teleconnection when compared to teleconnections based on ENSO expression in the AMOI. It is expected that applying this analysis to extremes of sea level anomalies will reveal additional influences.

Beschreibung: From the chlorophyll a in the surface layer to its vertical profile: a Greenland Sea relationship for satellite applications Ocean Science, 9, 431-445, 2013 Author(s): A. Cherkasheva, E.-M. Nöthig, E. Bauerfeind, C. Melsheimer, and A. Bracher Current estimates of global marine primary production range over a factor of two. Improving these estimates requires an accurate knowledge of the chlorophyll vertical profiles, since they are the basis for most primary production models. At high latitudes, the uncertainty in primary production estimates is larger than globally, because here phytoplankton absorption shows specific characteristics due to the low-light adaptation, and in situ data and ocean colour observations are scarce. To date, studies describing the typical chlorophyll profile based on the chlorophyll in the surface layer have not included the Arctic region, or, if it was included, the dependence of the profile shape on surface concentration was neglected. The goal of our study was to derive and describe the typical Greenland Sea chlorophyll profiles, categorized according to the chlorophyll concentration in the surface layer and further monthly resolved profiles. The Greenland Sea was chosen because it is known to be one of the most productive regions of the Arctic and is among the regions in the Arctic where most chlorophyll field data are available. Our database contained 1199 chlorophyll profiles from R/Vs Polarstern and Maria S. Merian cruises combined with data from the ARCSS-PP database (Arctic primary production in situ database) for the years 1957–2010. The profiles were categorized according to their mean concentration in the surface layer, and then monthly median profiles within each category were calculated. The category with the surface layer chlorophyll (CHL) exceeding 0.7 mg C m −3 showed values gradually decreasing from April to August. A similar seasonal pattern was observed when monthly profiles were averaged over all the surface CHL concentrations. The maxima of all chlorophyll profiles moved from the greater depths to the surface from spring to late summer respectively. The profiles with the smallest surface values always showed a subsurface chlorophyll maximum with its median magnitude reaching up to three times the surface concentration. While the variability of the Greenland Sea season in April, May and June followed the global non-monthly resolved relationship of the chlorophyll profile to surface chlorophyll concentrations described by the model of Morel and Berthon (1989), it deviated significantly from the model in the other months (July–September), when the maxima of the chlorophyll are at quite different depths. The Greenland Sea dimensionless monthly median profiles intersected roughly at one common depth within each category. By applying a Gaussian fit with 0.1 mg C m −3 surface chlorophyll steps to the median monthly resolved chlorophyll profiles of the defined categories, mathematical approximations were determined. They generally reproduce the magnitude and position of the CHL maximum, resulting in an average 4% underestimation in C tot (and 2% in rough primary production estimates) when compared to in situ estimates. These mathematical approximations can be used as the input to the satellite-based primary production models that estimate primary production in the Arctic regions.

Beschreibung: Large-scale temperature and salinity changes in the upper Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean at a time of a drastic Arctic Oscillation inversion Ocean Science, 9, 447-460, 2013 Author(s): P. Bourgain, J. C. Gascard, J. Shi, and J. Zhao Between 2008 and 2010, the Arctic Oscillation index over Arctic regions shifted from positive values corresponding to more cyclonic conditions prevailing during the 4th International Polar Year (IPY) period (2007–2008) to extremely negative values corresponding to strong anticyclonic conditions in 2010. In this context, we investigated the recent large-scale evolution of the upper western Arctic Ocean, based on temperature and salinity summertime observations collected during icebreaker campaigns and from ice-tethered profilers (ITPs) drifting across the region in 2008 and 2010. Particularly, we focused on (1) the freshwater content which was extensively studied during previous years, (2) the near-surface temperature maximum due to incoming solar radiation, and (3) the water masses advected from the Pacific Ocean into the Arctic Ocean. The observations revealed a freshwater content change in the Canadian Basin during this time period. South of 80° N, the freshwater content increased, while north of 80° N, less freshening occurred in 2010 compared to 2008. This was more likely due to the strong anticyclonicity characteristic of a low AO index mode that enhanced both a wind-generated Ekman pumping in the Beaufort Gyre and a possible diversion of the Siberian River runoff toward the Eurasian Basin at the same time. The near-surface temperature maximum due to incoming solar radiation was almost 1 °C colder in the southern Canada Basin (south of 75° N) in 2010 compared to 2008, which contrasted with the positive trend observed during previous years. This was more likely due to higher summer sea ice concentration in 2010 compared to 2008 in that region, and surface albedo feedback reflecting more sun radiation back in space. The Pacific water (PaW) was also subjected to strong spatial and temporal variability between 2008 and 2010. In the Canada Basin, both summer and winter PaW signatures were stronger between 75° N and 80° N. This was more likely due to a strong recirculation within the Beaufort Gyre. In contrast, south of 75° N, the cooling and warming of the summer and winter PaW, respectively, suggest that either the PaW was less present in 2010 than in 2008 in this region, and/or the PaW was older in 2010 than in 2008. In addition, in the vicinity of the Chukchi Sea, both summer and winter PaW were significantly warmer in 2010 than in 2008, as a consequence of a general warming trend of the PaW entering in the deep Arctic Ocean as of 2008.

Beschreibung: Seasonality of intermediate waters hydrography west of the Iberian Peninsula from an 8 yr semiannual time series of an oceanographic section Ocean Science, 9, 411-429, 2013 Author(s): E. Prieto, C. González-Pola, A. Lavín, R. F. Sánchez, and M. Ruiz-Villarreal Seasonality of hydrographical properties at depth in the western Iberian margin (eastern North Atlantic) is analysed from a 2003–2010 time series of a semiannual oceanographic section extending ∼200 nm off Cape Finisterre (43° N). All water masses down to the permanent thermocline (2000 dbar) show a consistent seasonal signature in their thermohaline properties and there is a notable asymmetry between the slope region and the outer ocean (in the surroundings of the Galicia Bank). There is overall cooling and freshening of eastern North Atlantic central waters in summertime, which is larger and deeper-reaching on the slope. In summertime, Mediterranean Water (MW) gets tightly attached against the slope and is uplifted, reinforcing its thermohaline signature and diminishing its presence at the outer ocean. In wintertime the situation reverses, MW seems to detach from the slope and spreads out to the open ocean, even being observed a secondary branch around the Galicia Bank. Thermohaline seasonality at depth shows values up to 0.4 °C and 0.08 in salinity at the lower MW, of the order of 20% of the overall interannual variability observed during the whole period. Decomposition of thermohaline changes at isobaric levels to changes along isoneutral surfaces and changes due to vertical displacements help analyse the physical processes behind the observed seasonality in terms of (1) the large-scale seasonality of the subtropical gyre in response to the seasonal migration of the subtropical high pressure system and subsequent anomalies in Ekman transport and wind stress curl, (2) the continental slope dynamics, characterized by summer upwelling, winter development of the Iberian Poleward Current and Mediterranean water spreading, and (3) the possible influence of seasonal changes of water mass properties at their formation sources.

Beschreibung: Variability in the air–sea interaction patterns and timescales within the south-eastern Bay of Biscay, as observed by HF radar data Ocean Science, 9, 399-410, 2013 Author(s): A. Fontán, G. Esnaola, J. Sáenz, and M. González Two high-frequency (HF) radar stations were installed on the coast of the south-eastern Bay of Biscay in 2009, providing high spatial and temporal resolution and large spatial coverage of currents in the area for the first time. This has made it possible to quantitatively assess the air–sea interaction patterns and timescales for the period 2009–2010. The analysis was conducted using the Barnett–Preisendorfer approach to canonical correlation analysis (CCA) of reanalysis surface winds and HF radar-derived surface currents. The CCA yields two canonical patterns: the first wind–current interaction pattern corresponds to the classical Ekman drift at the sea surface, whilst the second describes an anticyclonic/cyclonic surface circulation. The results obtained demonstrate that local winds play an important role in driving the upper water circulation. The wind–current interaction timescales are mainly related to diurnal breezes and synoptic variability. In particular, the breezes force diurnal currents in waters of the continental shelf and slope of the south-eastern Bay. It is concluded that the breezes may force diurnal currents over considerably wider areas than that covered by the HF radar, considering that the northern and southern continental shelves of the Bay exhibit stronger diurnal than annual wind amplitudes.

Beschreibung: Application of wavelet transform for evaluation of hydrocarbon reservoirs: example from Iranian oil fields in the north of the Persian Gulf Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 231-238, 2013 Author(s): M. R. Saadatinejad and H. Hassani The Persian Gulf and its surrounding area are some of the biggest basins and have a very important role in producing huge amounts of hydrocarbon, and this potential was evaluated in order to explore the target for geoscientists and petroleum engineers. Wavelet transform is a useful and applicable technique to reveal frequency contents of various signals in different branches of science and especially in petroleum studies. We applied two major capacities of continuous mode of wavelet transform in seismic investigations. These investigations were operated to detect reservoir geological structures and some anomalies related to hydrocarbon to develop and explore new petroleum reservoirs in at least 4 oilfields in the southwest of Iran. It had been observed that continuous wavelet transform results show some discontinuities in the location of faults and are able to display them more clearly than other seismic methods. Moreover, continuous wavelet transform, utilizing Morlet wavelet, displays low-frequency shadows on 4 different iso-frequency vertical sections to identify reservoirs containing gas. By comparing these different figures, the presence of low-frequency shadows under the reservoir could be seen and we can relate these variations from anomalies at different frequencies as an indicator of the presence of hydrocarbons in the target reservoir.

Beschreibung: Chaotic variability of the meridional overturning circulation on subannual to interannual timescales Ocean Science, 9, 805-823, 2013 Author(s): J. J.-M. Hirschi, A. T. Blaker, B. Sinha, A. Coward, B. de Cuevas, S. Alderson, and G. Madec Observations and numerical simulations have shown that the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) exhibits substantial variability on sub- to interannual timescales. This variability is not fully understood. In particular it is not known what fraction of the MOC variability is caused by processes such as mesoscale ocean eddies and waves which are ubiquitous in the ocean. Here we analyse twin experiments performed with a global ocean model at eddying (1/4°) and non-eddying (1°) resolutions. The twin experiments are forced with the same surface fluxes for the 1958 to 2001 period but start from different initial conditions. Our results show that on subannual to interannual timescales a large fraction of MOC variability directly reflects variability in the surface forcing. Nevertheless, in the eddy-permitting case there is an initial-condition-dependent MOC variability (hereinafter referred to as "chaotic" variability) of several Sv (1Sv = 10 6 m 3 s −1 ) in the Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific. In the Atlantic the chaotic MOC variability represents up to 30% of the total variability at the depths where the maximum MOC occurs. In comparison the chaotic MOC variability is only 5–10% in the non-eddying case. The surface forcing being almost identical in the twin experiments suggests that mesoscale ocean eddies are the most likely cause for the increased chaotic MOC variability in the eddying case. The exact formation time of eddies is determined by the initial conditions which are different in the two model passes, and as a consequence the mesoscale eddy field is decorrelated in the twin experiments. In regions where eddy activity is high in the eddy-permitting model, the correlation of sea surface height variability in the twin runs is close to zero. In the non-eddying case in contrast, we find high correlations (0.9 or higher) over most regions. Looking at the sub- and interannual MOC components separately reveals that most of the chaotic MOC variability is found on subannual timescales for the eddy-permitting model. On interannual timescales the amplitude of the chaotic MOC variability is much smaller and the amplitudes are comparable for both the eddy-permitting and non-eddy-permitting model resolutions. Whereas the chaotic MOC variability on interannual timescales only accounts for a small fraction of the total chaotic MOC variability in the eddy-permitting case, it is the main contributor to the chaotic variability in the non-eddying case away from the Equator.

Beschreibung: Distributed allocation of mobile sensing swarms in gyre flows Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 657-668, 2013 Author(s): K. Mallory, M. A. Hsieh, E. Forgoston, and I. B. Schwartz We address the synthesis of distributed control policies to enable a swarm of homogeneous mobile sensors to maintain a desired spatial distribution in a geophysical flow environment, or workspace. In this article, we assume the mobile sensors (or robots) have a "map" of the environment denoting the locations of the Lagrangian coherent structures or LCS boundaries. Using this information, we design agent-level hybrid control policies that leverage the surrounding fluid dynamics and inherent environmental noise to enable the team to maintain a desired distribution in the workspace. We discuss the stability properties of the ensemble dynamics of the distributed control policies. Since realistic quasi-geostrophic ocean models predict double-gyre flow solutions, we use a wind-driven multi-gyre flow model to verify the feasibility of the proposed distributed control strategy and compare the proposed control strategy with a baseline deterministic allocation strategy. Lastly, we validate the control strategy using actual flow data obtained by our coherent structure experimental testbed.

Beschreibung: Transport of Antarctic bottom water through the Kane Gap, tropical NE Atlantic Ocean Ocean Science, 9, 825-835, 2013 Author(s): E. G. Morozov, R. Y. Tarakanov, and H. van Haren We study low-frequency properties of the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) flow through the Kane Gap (9° N) in the Atlantic Ocean. The measurements in the Kane Gap include five visits with CTD (Conductivity-Temperature-Depth) sections in 2009–2012 and a year-long record of currents on a mooring using three AquaDopp current meters. We found an alternating regime of flow, which changes direction several times during a year. The seasonal signal seems to dominate. The maximum daily average values of southerly velocities reach 0.20 m s −1 , while the greatest north-northwesterly velocity is as high as 0.15 m s −1 . The velocity and transport at the bottom are aligned along the slope of a local hill near the southwestern side of the gap. The distribution of velocity directions at the upper boundary of AABW is wider. The transport of AABW (Θ 〈 1.9 °C) based on the mooring and LADCP (Lowered Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler) data varies approximately within ±0.35 Sv in the northern and southern directions. The annual mean AABW transport through the Kane Gap is almost zero.

Beschreibung: Four-dimensional ensemble-variational data assimilation for global deterministic weather prediction Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 669-682, 2013 Author(s): M. Buehner, J. Morneau, and C. Charette The goal of this study is to evaluate a version of the ensemble-variational data assimilation approach (EnVar) for possible replacement of 4D-Var at Environment Canada for global deterministic weather prediction. This implementation of EnVar relies on 4-D ensemble covariances, obtained from an ensemble Kalman filter, that are combined in a vertically dependent weighted average with simple static covariances. Verification results are presented from a set of data assimilation experiments over two separate 6-week periods that used assimilated observations and model configuration very similar to the currently operational system. To help interpret the comparison of EnVar versus 4D-Var, additional experiments using 3D-Var and a version of EnVar with only 3-D ensemble covariances are also evaluated. To improve the rate of convergence for all approaches evaluated (including EnVar), an estimate of the cost function Hessian generated by the quasi-Newton minimization algorithm is cycled from one analysis to the next. Analyses from EnVar (with 4-D ensemble covariances) nearly always produce improved, and never degraded, forecasts when compared with 3D-Var. Comparisons with 4D-Var show that forecasts from EnVar analyses have either similar or better scores in the troposphere of the tropics and the winter extra-tropical region. However, in the summer extra-tropical region the medium-range forecasts from EnVar have either similar or worse scores than 4D-Var in the troposphere. In contrast, the 6 h forecasts from EnVar are significantly better than 4D-Var relative to radiosonde observations for both periods and in all regions. The use of 4-D versus 3-D ensemble covariances only results in small improvements in forecast quality. By contrast, the improvements from using 4D-Var versus 3D-Var are much larger. Measurement of the fit of the background and analyzed states to the observations suggests that EnVar and 4D-Var can both make better use of observations distributed over time than 3D-Var. In summary, the results from this study suggest that the EnVar approach is a viable alternative to 4D-Var, especially when the simplicity and computational efficiency of EnVar are considered. Additional research is required to understand the seasonal dependence of the difference in forecast quality between EnVar and 4D-Var in the extra-tropics.

Beschreibung: Changes in extreme regional sea surface height due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Ocean Science, 10, 881-891, 2014 Author(s): S.-E. Brunnabend, H. A. Dijkstra, M. A. Kliphuis, B. van Werkhoven, H. E. Bal, F. Seinstra, J. Maassen, and M. van Meersbergen As an extreme scenario of dynamical sea level changes, regional sea surface height (SSH) changes that occur in the North Atlantic due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are simulated. Two versions of the same ocean-only model are used to study the effect of ocean model resolution on these SSH changes: a high-resolution (HR) strongly eddying version and a low-resolution (LR) version in which the effect of eddies is parameterised. The weakening of the AMOC is induced in both model versions by applying strong freshwater perturbations around Greenland. A rapid decrease of the AMOC in the HR version induces much shorter return times of several specific regional and coastal extremes in North Atlantic SSH than in the LR version. This effect is caused by a change in main eddy pathways associated with a change in separation latitude of the Gulf Stream.

Beschreibung: A century of sea level data and the UK's 2013/14 storm surges: an assessment of extremes and clustering using the Newlyn tide gauge record Ocean Science, 10, 1031-1045, 2014 Author(s): M. P. Wadey, I. D. Haigh, and J. M. Brown For the UK's longest and most complete sea level record (Newlyn), we assess extreme high waters and their temporal clustering; prompted by the 2013/2014 winter of storms and flooding. These are set into context against this almost 100-year record. We define annual periods for which storm activity and high sea levels can be compared on a year-by-year basis. Amongst the storms and high tides which affected Newlyn, the recent winter produced the largest recorded high water level (3 February 2014) and five other high water events above a 1 in 1-year return period. The large magnitude of tide and mean sea level, and the close inter-event spacings (of large return period high waters), suggests that the 2013/2014 extreme high water level "season" can be considered the most extreme on record. However, storm and sea level events may be classified in different ways. For example, in the context of sea level rise (which we calculate linearly as 1.81 ± 0.1 mm yr −1 from records between 1915 to 2014), a lower probability combination of surge and tide occurred on 29 January 1948, whilst the 1995/1996 storm surge season saw the most high waters of ≥ the 1 in 1-year return period. We provide a basic categorisation of the four types of extreme high water level cluster, ranging from consecutive tidal cycles to multiple years. The assessment is extended to other UK sites (with shorter sea level records and different tide-surge characteristics), which suggests 2013/2014 was particularly unusual. Further work will assess clustering mechanisms and flood system "memory".

Beschreibung: North Atlantic 20th century multidecadal variability in coupled climate models: sea surface temperature and ocean overturning circulation Ocean Science, 7, 389-404, 2011 Author(s): I. Medhaug and T. Furevik Output from a total of 24 state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models is analyzed. The models were integrated with observed forcing for the period 1850–2000 as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. All models show enhanced variability at multi-decadal time scales in the North Atlantic sector similar to the observations, but with a large intermodel spread in amplitudes and frequencies for both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The models, in general, are able to reproduce the observed geographical patterns of warm and cold episodes, but not the phasing such as the early warming (1930s–1950s) and the following colder period (1960s–1980s). This indicates that the observed 20th century extreme in temperatures are due to primarily a fortuitous phasing of intrinsic climate variability and not dominated by external forcing. Most models show a realistic structure in the overturning circulation, where more than half of the available models have a mean overturning transport within the observed estimated range of 13–24 Sverdrup. Associated with a stronger than normal AMOC, the surface temperature is increased and the sea ice extent slightly reduced in the North Atlantic. Individual models show potential for decadal prediction based on the relationship between the AMO and AMOC, but the models strongly disagree both in phasing and strength of the covariability. This makes it difficult to identify common mechanisms and to assess the applicability for predictions.

Beschreibung: Sensitivity analysis of an ocean carbon cycle model in the North Atlantic: an investigation of parameters affecting the air-sea CO 2 flux, primary production and export of detritus Ocean Science, 7, 405-419, 2011 Author(s): V. Scott, H. Kettle, and C. J. Merchant The sensitivity of the biological parameters in a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) model in the calculation of the air-sea CO 2 flux, primary production and detrital export is analysed. We explore the effect on these outputs of variation in the values of the twenty parameters that control ocean ecosystem growth in a 1-D formulation of the UK Met Office HadOCC NPZD model used in GCMs. We use and compare the results from one-at-a-time and all-at-a-time perturbations performed at three sites in the EuroSITES European Ocean Observatory Network: the Central Irminger Sea (60° N 40° W), the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (49° N 16° W) and the European Station for Time series in the Ocean Canary Islands (29° N 15° W). Reasonable changes to the values of key parameters are shown to have a large effect on the calculation of the air-sea CO 2 flux, primary production, and export of biological detritus to the deep ocean. Changes in the values of key parameters have a greater effect in more productive regions than in less productive areas. The most sensitive parameters are generally found to be those controlling well-established ocean ecosystem parameterisations widely used in many NPZD-type models. The air-sea CO 2 flux is most influenced by variation in the parameters that control phytoplankton growth, detrital sinking and carbonate production by phytoplankton (the rain ratio). Primary production is most sensitive to the parameters that define the shape of the photosynthesis-irradiance curve. Export production is most sensitive to the parameters that control the rate of detrital sinking and the remineralisation of detritus.

Beschreibung: Corrigendum to "Breeding and predictability in the baroclinic rotating annulus using a perfect model" published in Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 15, 469–487, 2008 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 359-359, 2011 Author(s): R. M. B. Young and P. L. Read No abstract available.

Beschreibung: A new tide model for the Mediterranean Sea based on altimetry and tide gauge assimilation Ocean Science, 7, 429-444, 2011 Author(s): D. N. Arabelos, D. Z. Papazachariou, M. E. Contadakis, and S. D. Spatalas The tides for the Mediterranean Sea are described through a high resolution model (MEDI10) developed by assimilation of tide-gauge data and T/P data into a barotropic ocean tide model. Tidal parameters from 56 coastal tide-gauge stations around the Mediterranean for eight principal constituents: M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, P1 and Q1 and from 20 stations for M2, S2, K1, O1 are included in the model. TOPEX/Poseidon data with all corrections applied except for the ocean tides and bathymetry from TOPO 13.1 were used for development of the model. Numerical experiments were carried out for the estimation of the friction velocity and of the decorrelation length scale. The experiments related to the friction velocity showed that the use of spatially varying friction velocity, estimated as a function of position in the model domain, gives better results than a constant value. The experiments related to the estimation of the decorrelation length suggest that the results are not sensitive for lengths close to ten times the length of the grid cell. The assessment of the model is based on ten tide-gauge observations that are not used for the assimilation. Comparisons were carried out with contemporary published global or regional models. The final solution is computed using 76 selected coastal tide-gauge stations. The comparison between the observed and the model constituents results in a Root Sum of Squares (RSS) equal to 1.3 cm.

Beschreibung: Strategies for coupling global and limited-area ensemble Kalman filter assimilation Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 415-430, 2011 Author(s): D. Merkova, I. Szunyogh, and E. Ott This paper compares the forecast performance of four strategies for coupling global and limited area data assimilation: three strategies propagate information from the global to the limited area process, while the fourth strategy feeds back information from the limited area to the global process. All four strategies are formulated in the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) framework. Numerical experiments are carried out with the model component of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM). The limited area domain is an extended North-America region that includes part of the north-east Pacific. The GFS is integrated at horizontal resolution T62 (about 150 km in the mid-latitudes), while the RSM is integrated at horizontal resolution 48 km. Experiments are carried out both under the perfect model hypothesis and in a realistic setting. The coupling strategies are evaluated by comparing their deterministic forecast performance at 12-h and 48-h lead times. The results suggest that the limited area data assimilation system has the potential to enhance the forecasts at 12-h lead time in the limited area domain at the synoptic and sub-synoptic scales (in the global wave number range of about 10 to 40). There is a clear indication that between the forecast performance of the different coupling strategies those that cycle the limited area assimilation process produce the most accurate forecasts. In the realistic setting, at 12-h forecast time the limited area systems produce more modest improvements compared to the global system than under the perfect model hypothesis, and at 48-h forecast time the global forecasts are more accurate than the limited area forecasts.

Beschreibung: Spectral methods for internal waves: indistinguishable density profiles and double-humped solitary waves Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 351-358, 2011 Author(s): M. Dunphy, C. Subich, and M. Stastna Internal solitary waves are widely observed in both the oceans and large lakes. They can be described by a variety of mathematical theories, covering the full spectrum from first order asymptotic theory (i.e. Korteweg-de Vries, or KdV, theory), through higher order extensions of weakly nonlinear-weakly nonhydrostatic theory, to fully nonlinear-weakly nonhydrostatic theories and finally exact theory based on the Dubreil-Jacotin-Long (DJL) equation that is formally equivalent to the full set of Euler equations. We discuss how spectral and pseudospectral methods allow for the computation of novel phenomena in both approximate and exact theories. In particular we construct markedly different density profiles for which the coefficients in the KdV theory are very nearly identical. These two density profiles yield qualitatively different behaviour for both exact, or fully nonlinear, waves computed using the DJL equation and in dynamic simulations of the time dependent Euler equations. For exact, DJL, theory we compute exact solitary waves with two-scales, or so-called double-humped waves.

Beschreibung: A nonlinear method of removing harmonic noise in geophysical data Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 367-379, 2011 Author(s): Y. Jeng and C.-S. Chen A nonlinear, adaptive method to remove the harmonic noise that commonly resides in geophysical data is proposed in this study. This filtering method is based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition algorithm in conjunction with the logarithmic transform. We present a synthetic model study to investigate the capability of signal reconstruction from the decomposed data, and compare the results with those derived from other 2-D adaptive filters. Applications to the real seismic data acquired by using an ocean bottom seismograph and to a shot gather of the ground penetrating radar demonstrate the robustness of this method. Our work proposes a concept that instead of Fourier-based approaches, the harmonic noise removal in geophysical data can be achieved effectively by using an alternative nonlinear adaptive data analysis method, which has been applied extensively in other scientific studies.

Beschreibung: Comparison of correlation analysis techniques for irregularly sampled time series Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 389-404, 2011 Author(s): K. Rehfeld, N. Marwan, J. Heitzig, and J. Kurths Geoscientific measurements often provide time series with irregular time sampling, requiring either data reconstruction (interpolation) or sophisticated methods to handle irregular sampling. We compare the linear interpolation technique and different approaches for analyzing the correlation functions and persistence of irregularly sampled time series, as Lomb-Scargle Fourier transformation and kernel-based methods. In a thorough benchmark test we investigate the performance of these techniques. All methods have comparable root mean square errors (RMSEs) for low skewness of the inter-observation time distribution. For high skewness, very irregular data, interpolation bias and RMSE increase strongly. We find a 40 % lower RMSE for the lag-1 autocorrelation function (ACF) for the Gaussian kernel method vs. the linear interpolation scheme,in the analysis of highly irregular time series. For the cross correlation function (CCF) the RMSE is then lower by 60 %. The application of the Lomb-Scargle technique gave results comparable to the kernel methods for the univariate, but poorer results in the bivariate case. Especially the high-frequency components of the signal, where classical methods show a strong bias in ACF and CCF magnitude, are preserved when using the kernel methods. We illustrate the performances of interpolation vs. Gaussian kernel method by applying both to paleo-data from four locations, reflecting late Holocene Asian monsoon variability as derived from speleothem δ 18 O measurements. Cross correlation results are similar for both methods, which we attribute to the long time scales of the common variability. The persistence time (memory) is strongly overestimated when using the standard, interpolation-based, approach. Hence, the Gaussian kernel is a reliable and more robust estimator with significant advantages compared to other techniques and suitable for large scale application to paleo-data.

Beschreibung: About the seasonal and fortnightly variabilities of the Mediterranean outflow Ocean Science, 7, 421-428, 2011 Author(s): C. Millot and J. Garcia-Lafuente CTD time series from the HYDRO-CHANGES programme and INGRES projects have been collected simultaneously (2004–2008) on the shelf of Morocco and at the sills of Camarinal and Espartel in the strait of Gibraltar. They provide information that supports results recently obtained from the analysis of the two former time series, as well as from a reanalysis of GIBEX CTD profiles (1985–1986). The outflow of Mediterranean Waters, which does not show a clear seasonal variability before entering the strait, strongly mixes within the strait, due mainly to the internal tide, with the seasonally variable inflow of Atlantic Water. The outflow thus gets marked seasonal and fortnightly variabilities within the strait. Furthermore, since the outflowing waters entering the strait display marked spatial heterogeneity and long-term temporal variabilities, accurately predicting the characteristics of the Mediterranean outflow into the North Atlantic Ocean appears almost impossible.

Beschreibung: Brief communication "On one mechanism of low frequency variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current" Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 361-365, 2011 Author(s): O. G. Derzho and B. de Young In this paper we present a simple analytical model for low frequency and large scale variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The physical mechanism of the variability is related to temporal and spatial variations of the cyclonic mean flow (ACC) due to circularly propagating nonlinear barotropic Rossby wave trains. It is shown that the Rossby wave train is a fundamental mode, trapped between the major fronts in the ACC. The Rossby waves are predicted to rotate with a particular angular velocity that depends on the magnitude and width of the mean current. The spatial structure of the rotating pattern, including its zonal wave number, is defined by the specific form of the stream function-vorticity relation. The similarity between the simulated patterns and the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) is highlighted. The model can predict the observed sequence of warm and cold patches in the ACW as well as its zonal number.

Beschreibung: A semi-phenomenological approach to explain the event-size distribution of the Drossel-Schwabl forest-fire model Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 381-388, 2011 Author(s): S. Hergarten and R. Krenn We present a novel approach to explain the complex scaling behavior of the Drossel-Schwabl forest-fire model in two dimensions. Clusters of trees are characterized by their size and perimeter only, whereas spatial correlations are neglected. Coalescence of clusters is restricted to clusters of similar sizes. Our approach derives the value of the scaling exponent τ of the event size distribution directly from the scaling of the accessible perimeter of percolation clusters. We obtain τ = 1.19 in the limit of infinite growth rate, in perfect agreement with numerical results. Furthermore, our approach predicts the unusual transition from a power law to an exponential decay even quantitatively, while the exponential decay at large event sizes itself is reproduced only qualitatively.

Beschreibung: Double rank-ordering technique of ROMA (Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis) for multifractal fluctuations featuring multiple regimes of scales Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 405-414, 2011 Author(s): S. W. Y. Tam and T. Chang Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis (ROMA), a technique capable of deciphering the multifractal characteristics of intermittent fluctuations, was originally applied to the results of a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation. Application of ROMA to measured fluctuations in the auroral zone, due to the dominant physical effects changing from kinetic to MHD as the scale increases, requires an additional level of rank-ordering in order to divide the domain of scales into regimes. An algorithm for the additional step in this double rank-ordering technique is discussed, and is demonstrated in the application to the electric field fluctuations in the auroral zone as an example. As a result of the double rank-ordering, ROMA is able to take into account the nonlinear crossover behavior characterized by the multiple regimes of time scales by providing a scaling variable and a scaling function that are global to all the time scales.

Beschreibung: Comparison between three implementations of automatic identification algorithms for the quantification and characterization of mesoscale eddies in the South Atlantic Ocean Ocean Science, 7, 317-334, 2011 Author(s): J. M. A. C. Souza, C. de Boyer Montégut, and P. Y. Le Traon Three methods for automatic detection of mesoscale coherent structures are applied to Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) fields in the South Atlantic. The first method is based on the wavelet packet decomposition of the SLA data, the second on the estimation of the Okubo-Weiss parameter and the third on a geometric criterion using the winding-angle approach. The results provide a comprehensive picture of the mesoscale eddies over the South Atlantic Ocean, emphasizing their main characteristics: amplitude, diameter, duration and propagation velocity. Five areas of particular eddy dynamics were selected: the Brazil Current, the Agulhas eddies propagation corridor, the Agulhas Current retroflexion, the Brazil-Malvinas confluence zone and the northern branch of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). For these areas, mean propagation velocities and amplitudes were calculated. Two regions with long duration eddies were observed, corresponding to the propagation of Agulhas and ACC eddies. Through the comparison between the identification methods, their main advantages and shortcomings were detailed. The geometric criterion presents the best performance, mainly in terms of number of detections, duration of the eddies and propagation velocities. The results are particularly good for the Agulhas Rings, which have the longest lifetimes of all South Atlantic eddies.

Beschreibung: Large eddy simulation of sediment transport over rippled beds Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, 1169-1184, 2014 Author(s): J. C. Harris and S. T. Grilli Wave-induced boundary layer (BL) flows over sandy rippled bottoms are studied using a numerical model that applies a one-way coupling of a "far-field" inviscid flow model to a "near-field" large eddy simulation (LES) Navier–Stokes (NS) model. The incident inviscid velocity and pressure fields force the LES, in which near-field, wave-induced, turbulent bottom BL flows are simulated. A sediment suspension and transport model is embedded within the coupled flow model. The numerical implementation of the various models has been reported elsewhere, where we showed that the LES was able to accurately simulate both mean flow and turbulent statistics for oscillatory BL flows over a flat, rough bed. Here we show that the model accurately predicts the mean velocity fields and suspended sediment concentration for oscillatory flows over full-scale vortex ripples. Tests show that surface roughness has a significant effect on the results. Beyond increasing our insight into wave-induced oscillatory bottom BL physics, sophisticated coupled models of sediment transport such as that presented have the potential to make quantitative predictions of sediment transport and erosion/accretion around partly buried objects in the bottom, which is important for a vast array of bottom deployed instrumentation and other practical ocean engineering problems.

Beschreibung: Dependence of sandpile avalanche frequency–size distribution on coverage extent and compactness of embedded toppling threshold heterogeneity: implications for the variation of Gutenberg–Richter b value Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, 1185-1193, 2014 Author(s): L.-Y. Chiao and Q. Liu The effects of the spatiotemporal evolution of failure threshold heterogeneity on the dynamics of fault criticality, and thus on regional seismogenesis, have attracted strong interest in the field of regional seismotectonics. The heterogeneity might be a manifestation of the macroscopic distribution and multiscale strength variation of asperities, the distinct regional stress level, and (microscopically) heterogeneous fault surface roughness or friction regimes. In this study, rather than attempting to mimic the complex microscale slipping physics on a fault surface, sandpile cellular automata were implemented with a straightforward toppling rule. The objective is to examine the influence of distinct configurations of the embedded heterogeneous toppling threshold field on the global system avalanche event statistics. The examination results revealed that increasing the coverage extent and decreasing the compactness of the heterogeneous failure threshold, rather than the magnitude, range of contrast, diversity, or the geometric configuration of the threshold heterogeneity, leads to a systematic increase in the scaling exponent of the avalanche event power law statistics, implying the importance of mutual interaction among toppling sites with distinct thresholds. For tectonic provinces with differing stress regimes evolving spatio temporally, it is postulated that the distinct extent and compactness of the heterogeneous failure threshold are critical factors that manifest in the reported dynamic variations of seismicity scaling.

Beschreibung: Influence of frontal cyclone evolution on the 2009 (Ekman) and 2010 (Franklin) Loop Current eddy detachment events Ocean Science, 10, 947-965, 2014 Author(s): Y. S. Androulidakis, V. H. Kourafalou, and M. Le Hénaff The anticyclonic Loop Current Eddy (LCE) shedding events are strongly associated with the evolution of Loop Current Frontal Eddies (LCFEs) over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (GoM). A numerical simulation, in tandem with in situ measurements and satellite data, was used to investigate the Loop Current (LC) evolution and the surrounding LCFE formation, structure, growth and migration during the Eddy Ekman and Eddy Franklin shedding events in the summers of 2009 and 2010, respectively. During both events, northern GoM LCFEs appeared vertically coherent to at least 1500 m in temperature observations. They propagated towards the base of the LC, where, together with the migration of Campeche Bank (southwest GoM shelf) eddies from south of the LC, contributed to its "necking-down". Growth of Campeche Bank LCFEs involved in Eddy Franklin was partially attributed to Campeche Bank waters following upwelling events. Slope processes associated with such upwelling included offshore exports of high positive potential vorticity that may trigger cyclone formation and growth. The advection and growth of LCFEs, originating from the northern and southern GoM, and their interaction with the LC over the LCE detachment area favor shedding conditions and may contribute to the final separation of the LCE.

Beschreibung: Instability and change detection in exponential families and generalized linear models, with a study of Atlantic tropical storms Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, 1133-1143, 2014 Author(s): Y. Lu and S. Chatterjee Exponential family statistical distributions, including the well-known normal, binomial, Poisson, and exponential distributions, are overwhelmingly used in data analysis. In the presence of covariates, an exponential family distributional assumption for the response random variables results in a generalized linear model. However, it is rarely ensured that the parameters of the assumed distributions are stable through the entire duration of the data collection process. A failure of stability leads to nonsmoothness and nonlinearity in the physical processes that result in the data. In this paper, we propose testing for stability of parameters of exponential family distributions and generalized linear models. A rejection of the hypothesis of stable parameters leads to change detection. We derive the related likelihood ratio test statistic. We compare the performance of this test statistic to the popular normal distributional assumption dependent cumulative sum (Gaussian CUSUM) statistic in change detection problems. We study Atlantic tropical storms using the techniques developed here, so to understand whether the nature of these tropical storms has remained stable over the last few decades.

Beschreibung: The Rossby radius in the Arctic Ocean Ocean Science, 10, 967-975, 2014 Author(s): A. J. G. Nurser and S. Bacon The first (and second) baroclinic deformation (or Rossby) radii are presented north of ~60° N, focusing on deep basins and shelf seas in the high Arctic Ocean, the Nordic seas, Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, derived from climatological ocean data. In the high Arctic Ocean, the first Rossby radius increases from ~5 km in the Nansen Basin to ~15 km in the central Canadian Basin. In the shelf seas and elsewhere, values are low (1–7 km), reflecting weak density stratification, shallow water, or both. Seasonality strongly impacts the Rossby radius only in shallow seas, where winter homogenization of the water column can reduce it to below 1 km. Greater detail is seen in the output from an ice–ocean general circulation model, of higher resolution than the climatology. To assess the impact of secular variability, 10 years (2003–2012) of hydrographic stations along 150° W in the Beaufort Gyre are also analysed. The first-mode Rossby radius increases over this period by ~20%. Finally, we review the observed scales of Arctic Ocean eddies.

Beschreibung: An ocean modelling and assimilation guide to using GOCE geoid products Ocean Science, 7, 151-164, 2011 Author(s): K. Haines, J. A. Johannessen, P. Knudsen, D. Lea, M.-H. Rio, L. Bertino, F. Davidson, and F. Hernandez We review the procedures and challenges that must be considered when using geoid data derived from the Gravity and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) mission in order to constrain the circulation and water mass representation in an ocean general circulation model. It covers the combination of the geoid information with time-mean sea level information derived from satellite altimeter data, to construct a mean dynamic topography (MDT), and considers how this complements the time-varying sea level anomaly, also available from the satellite altimeter. We particularly consider the compatibility of these different fields in their spatial scale content, their temporal representation, and in their error covariances. These considerations are very important when the resulting data are to be used to estimate ocean circulation and its corresponding errors. We describe the further steps needed for assimilating the resulting dynamic topography information into an ocean circulation model using three different operational forecasting and data assimilation systems. We look at methods used for assimilating altimeter anomaly data in the absence of a suitable geoid, and then discuss different approaches which have been tried for assimilating the additional geoid information. We review the problems that have been encountered and the lessons learned in order the help future users. Finally we present some results from the use of GRACE geoid information in the operational oceanography community and discuss the future potential gains that may be obtained from a new GOCE geoid.

Beschreibung: Effect of tidal stream power generation on the region-wide circulation in a shallow sea Ocean Science, 7, 165-174, 2011 Author(s): G. I. Shapiro This paper quantifies the backward effect on the ocean currents caused by a tidal stream farm located in the open shallow sea. Recent studies in channels with 1-D models have indicated that the power potential is not given purely by the flux of kinetic energy, as has been commonly assumed. In this study, a 3-D ocean circulation model is used to estimate (i) practically extractable energy resource at different levels of rated generation capacity of the farm, (ii) changes in the strength of currents due to energy extraction, and (iii) alterations in the pattern of residual currents and the pathways of passive tracers. As well as tidal streams, the model also takes into account the wind-driven and density-driven ocean currents. Numerical modelling has been carried out for a hypothetical tidal farm located in the Celtic Sea north of Cornwall, an area known for its high level of tidal energy. Modelling results clearly indicate that the extracted power does not grow linearly with the increase in the rated capacity of the farm. For the case study covered in this paper, a 100-fold increase in the rated generation capacity of the farm results in only 7-fold increase in extracted power. In the case of a high power farm, kinetic energy of currents is altered significantly as far as 10–20 km away from the farm. At high levels of extracted energy the currents tend to avoid flowing through the farm, an effect which is not captured with 1-D models. Residual currents are altered as far as a hundred kilometres away. The magnitude of changes in the dispersion of tracers is highly sensitive to the location. Some of the passive drifters analysed in this study experience significant variations in the end-to-start distance due to energy extraction ranging from 13% to 238% while others are practically unaffected. This study shows that both energy extraction estimates and effects on region wide circulation depend on a complex combination of factors, and the specific figures given in the paper should be generally considered as first estimates.

Beschreibung: Rank ordering multifractal analysis of the auroral electrojet index Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 277-285, 2011 Author(s): G. Consolini and P. De Michelis In the second half of the 90s interest grew on the complex features of the magnetospheric dynamics in response to solar wind changes. An important series of papers were published on the occurrence of chaos, turbulence and complexity. Among them, particularly interesting was the study of the bursty and fractal/multifractal character of the high latitude energy release during geomagnetic storms, which was evidenced by analyzing the features of the Auroral Electrojet (AE) indices. Recently, the multifractal features of the small time-scale increments of AE-indices have been criticized in favor of a more simple fractal behavior. This is particularly true for the scaling features of the probability density functions (PDFs) of the AE index increments. Here, after a brief review of the nature of the fractal/multifractal features of the magnetospheric response to solar wind changes, we investigate the multifractal nature of the scaling features of the AE index increments PDFs using the Rank Ordering Multifractal Analysis (ROMA) technique. The ROMA results clearly demonstrate the existence of a hierarchy of scaling indices, depending on the increment amplitude, for the data collapsing of PDFs relative to increments at different time scales. Our results confirm the previous results by Consolini et al. (1996) and the more recent results by Rypdal and Rypdal (2010).

Beschreibung: On the freshening of the northwestern Weddell Sea continental shelf Ocean Science, 7, 305-316, 2011 Author(s): H. H. Hellmer, O. Huhn, D. Gomis, and R. Timmermann We analyzed hydrographic data from the northwestern Weddell Sea continental shelf of the three austral winters 1989, 1997, and 2006 and two summers following the last winter cruise. During summer a thermal front exists at ~64° S separating cold southern waters from warm northern waters that have similar characteristics as the deep waters of the central basin of the Bransfield Strait. In winter, the whole continental shelf exhibits southern characteristics with high Neon (Ne) concentrations, indicating a significant input of glacial melt water. The comparison of the winter data from the shallow shelf off the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, spanning a period of 17 yr, shows a salinity decrease of 0.09 for the whole water column, which has a residence time of

Beschreibung: Flow and mixing near a glacier tongue: a pilot study Ocean Science, 7, 293-304, 2011 Author(s): C. L. Stevens, C. L. Stewart, N. J. Robinson, M. J. M. Williams, and T. G. Haskell A glacier tongue floating in the coastal ocean presents a significant obstacle to the local flow and so influences oceanic mixing and transport processes. Here acoustic Doppler current profiler and shear microstructure observations very near to a glacier tongue side-wall capture flow accelerations and associated mixing. Flow speeds reached around 40 cm s −1 , twice that of the ambient tidal flow amplitude, and generated vertical velocity shear squared as large as 10 −5 s −2 . During the time of maximum flow, turbulent energy dissipation rates reached 10 −5 m 2 s −3 , around three decades greater than local background levels. This is in keeping with estimates of the gradient Richardson Number which dropped to ~1 during maximum flow. Associated vertical diffusivities estimated from the shear microstructure results were substantial, reflecting the influence of the glacier on velocity gradients.

Beschreibung: Tidal generation of large sub-mesoscale eddy dipoles Ocean Science, 7, 487-502, 2011 Author(s): W. Callendar, J. M. Klymak, and M. G. G. Foreman Numerical simulations of tidal flow past Cape St. James on the south tip of Haida Gwaii (Queen Charlotte Islands) are presented that indicate mesoscale dipoles are formed from coalescing tidal eddies. Observations in this region demonstrate robust eddy generation at the Cape, with the primary process being flow separation of buoyant or wind driven outflows forming large anti-cyclonic, negative potential vorticity, Haida Eddies. However, there are other times where dipoles are observed in satellites, indicating a source of positive potential vorticity must also be present. The simulations here build on previous work that implicates oscillating tidal flow past the cape in creating the positive vorticity. Small headland eddies of alternating vorticity are created each tide. During certain tidal cycles, the headland eddies coalesce and self organize in such a way as to create large 〉20-km diameter eddies that then self-advect into deep water. The self advection speed is faster than the beta drift of anti-cyclones, and the propagation direction appears to be more southerly than typical Haida Eddies, though the model contains no mean wind-driven flows. These eddies are smaller than Haida Eddies, but given their tidal origin, may represent a more consistent source of coastal water that is injected into the interior of the subpolar gyre.

Beschreibung: Spectrophotometric high-precision seawater pH determination for use in underway measuring systems Ocean Science, 7, 597-607, 2011 Author(s): S. Aßmann, C. Frank, and A. Körtzinger Autonomous sensors are required for a comprehensive documentation of the changes in the marine carbon system and thus to differentiate between its natural variability and anthropogenic impacts. Spectrophotometric determination of pH – a key variable of the seawater carbon system – is particularly suited to achieve precise and drift-free measurements. However, available spectrophotometric instruments are not suitable for integration into automated measurement systems (e.g. FerryBox) since they do not meet the major requirements of reliability, stability, robustness and moderate cost. Here we report on the development and testing of a~new indicator-based pH sensor that meets all of these requirements. This sensor can withstand the rough conditions during long-term deployments on ships of opportunity and is applicable to the open ocean as well as to coastal waters with a complex matrix and highly variable conditions. The sensor uses a high resolution CCD spectrometer as detector connected via optical fibers to a custom-made cuvette designed to reduce the impact of air bubbles. The sample temperature can be precisely adjusted (25 °C ± 0.006 °C) using computer-controlled power supplies and Peltier elements thus avoiding the widely used water bath. The overall setup achieves a measurement frequency of 1 min −1 with a precision of ±0.0007 pH units, an average offset of +0.0005 pH units to a reference system, and an offset of +0.0081 pH units to a certified standard buffer. Application of this sensor allows monitoring of seawater pH in autonomous underway systems, providing a key variable for characterization and understanding of the marine carbon system.

Beschreibung: An eddy resolving tidal-driven model of the South China Sea assimilating along-track SLA data using the EnOI Ocean Science, 7, 609-627, 2011 Author(s): J. Xie, F. Counillon, J. Zhu, and L. Bertino The upper ocean circulation in the South China Sea (SCS) is driven by the Asian monsoon, the Kuroshio intrusion through the Luzon Strait, strong tidal currents, and a complex topography. Here, we demonstrate the benefit of assimilating along-track altimeter data into a nested configuration of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model that includes tides. Including tides in models is important because they interact with the main circulation. However, assimilation of altimetry data into a model including tides is challenging because tides and mesoscale features contribute to the elevation of ocean surface at different time scales and require different corrections. To address this issue, tides are filtered out of the model output and only the mesoscale variability is corrected with a computationally cheap data assimilation method: the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI). This method uses a running selection of members to handle the seasonal variability and assimilates the track data asynchronously. The data assimilative system is tested for the period 1994–1995, during which time a large number of validation data are available. Data assimilation reduces the Root Mean Square Error of Sea Level Anomalies from 9.3 to 6.9 cm and improves the representation of the mesoscale features. With respect to the vertical temperature profiles, the data assimilation scheme reduces the errors quantitatively with an improvement at intermediate depth and deterioration at deeper depth. The comparison to surface drifters shows an improvement of surface current by approximately −9% in the Northern SCS and east of Vietnam. Results are improved compared to an assimilative system that does not include tides and a system that does not consider asynchronous assimilation.

Beschreibung: Preface Large amplitude internal waves in the coastal ocean Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 653-655, 2011 Author(s): R. Grimshaw, K. Helfrich, and A. Scotti No Abstract available.

Beschreibung: A computational method for determining XBT depths Ocean Science, 7, 733-743, 2011 Author(s): J. Stark, J. Gorman, M. Hennessey, F. Reseghetti, J. Willis, J. Lyman, J. Abraham, and M. Borghini A new technique for determining the depth of expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) is developed. This new method uses a forward-stepping calculation which incorporates all of the forces on the XBT devices during their descent. Of particular note are drag forces which are calculated using a new drag coefficient expression. That expression, obtained entirely from computational fluid dynamic modeling, accounts for local variations in the ocean environment. Consequently, the method allows for accurate determination of depths for any local temperature environment. The results, which are entirely based on numerical simulation, are compared with the experiments of LM Sippican T-5 XBT probes. It is found that the calculated depths differ by less than 3% from depth estimates using the standard fall-rate equation (FRE). Furthermore, the differences decrease with depth. The computational model allows an investigation of the fluid flow patterns along the outer surface of the probe as well as in the interior channel. The simulations take account of complex flow phenomena such as laminar-turbulent transition and flow separation.

Beschreibung: Mean Dynamic Topography of the Black Sea, computed from altimetry, drifter measurements and hydrology data Ocean Science, 7, 745-753, 2011 Author(s): A. A. Kubryakov and S. V. Stanichny Mean Dynamic Topography (MDT) is a crucial parameter for estimating dynamic topography, and, therefore, geostrophic circulation from satellite altimetry measurements. In this work we use drifting buoy measurements, hydrographic profiles and along-track Sea Level Anomalies (SLA) to reconstruct MDT of the Black Sea by the "synthetic" method. Obtained MDT shows a lot of mesoscale features, which are not present in previous MDT fields of the Black Sea, mostly based on climatic data. Moreover, gradients of sea level in the synthetic MDT are significantly higher compared to other fields, which is evidence of more intense currents in the basin. Validation of determined MDT field with independent dynamic heights and drifter buoy velocities shows good quantitative and qualitative coincidence over all Black Sea basin and improvements compare to previous fields. New Black Sea MDT will improve quality of altimetry-derived geostrophic velocities and lead to better understanding of the spatial and temporal features of the upper layer dynamics.

Beschreibung: Size distribution and structure of Barchan dune fields Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 455-467, 2011 Author(s): O. Durán, V. Schwämmle, P. G. Lind, and H. J. Herrmann Barchans are isolated mobile dunes often organized in large dune fields. Dune fields seem to present a characteristic dune size and spacing, which suggests a cooperative behavior based on dune interaction. In Duran et al. (2009), we propose that the redistribution of sand by collisions between dunes is a key element for the stability and size selection of barchan dune fields. This approach was based on a mean-field model ignoring the spatial distribution of dune fields. Here, we present a simplified dune field model that includes the spatial evolution of individual dunes as well as their interaction through sand exchange and binary collisions. As a result, the dune field evolves towards a steady state that depends on the boundary conditions. Comparing our results with measurements of Moroccan dune fields, we find that the simulated fields have the same dune size distribution as in real fields but fail to reproduce their homogeneity along the wind direction.

Beschreibung: Combining 2-m temperature nowcasting and short range ensemble forecasting Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 903-910, 2011 Author(s): A. Kann, T. Haiden, and C. Wittmann During recent years, numerical ensemble prediction systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties of dynamical and physical processes as represented in numerical weather models. The latest generation of limited area ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPSs) allows for probabilistic forecasts at high resolution in both space and time. However, these systems still suffer from systematic deficiencies. Especially for nowcasting (0–6 h) applications the ensemble spread is smaller than the actual forecast error. This paper tries to generate probabilistic short range 2-m temperature forecasts by combining a state-of-the-art nowcasting method and a limited area ensemble system, and compares the results with statistical methods. The Integrated Nowcasting Through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system, which has been in operation at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) since 2006 (Haiden et al., 2011), provides short range deterministic forecasts at high temporal (15 min–60 min) and spatial (1 km) resolution. An INCA Ensemble (INCA-EPS) of 2-m temperature forecasts is constructed by applying a dynamical approach, a statistical approach, and a combined dynamic-statistical method. The dynamical method takes uncertainty information (i.e. ensemble variance) from the operational limited area ensemble system ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) which is running operationally at ZAMG (Wang et al., 2011). The purely statistical method assumes a well-calibrated spread-skill relation and applies ensemble spread according to the skill of the INCA forecast of the most recent past. The combined dynamic-statistical approach adapts the ensemble variance gained from ALADIN-LAEF with non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR) which yields a statistical \mbox{correction} of the first and second moment (mean bias and dispersion) for Gaussian distributed continuous variables. Validation results indicate that all three methods produce sharp and reliable probabilistic 2-m temperature forecasts. However, the statistical and combined dynamic-statistical methods slightly outperform the pure dynamical approach, mainly due to the under-dispersive behavior of ALADIN-LAEF outside the nowcasting range. The training length does not have a pronounced impact on forecast skill, but a spread re-scaling improves the forecast skill substantially. Refinements of the statistical methods yield a slight further improvement.

Beschreibung: Towards a regional ocean forecasting system for the IBI (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland area): developments and improvements within the ECOOP project framework Ocean Science, 8, 143-159, 2012 Author(s): S. Cailleau, J. Chanut, J.-M. Lellouche, B. Levier, C. Maraldi, G. Reffray, and M. G. Sotillo The regional ocean operational system remains a key element in downscaling from large scale (global or basin scale) systems to coastal ones. It enables the transition between systems in which the resolution and the resolved physics are quite different. Indeed, coastal applications need a system to predict local high frequency events (inferior to the day) such as storm surges, while deep sea applications need a system to predict large scale lower frequency ocean features. In the framework of the ECOOP project, a regional system for the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland area has been upgraded from an existing V0 version to a V2. This paper focuses on the improvements from the V1 system, for which the physics are close to a large scale basin system, to the V2 for which the physics are more adapted to shelf and coastal issues. Strong developments such as higher regional physics resolution in the NEMO Ocean General Circulation Model for tides, non linear free surface and adapted vertical mixing schemes among others have been implemented in the V2 version. Thus, regional thermal fronts due to tidal mixing now appear in the latest version solution and are quite well positioned. Moreover, simulation of the stratification in shelf areas is also improved in the V2.

Beschreibung: Technical Note: Detection of gas bubble leakage via correlation of water column multibeam images Ocean Science, 8, 175-181, 2012 Author(s): J. Schneider von Deimling and C. Papenberg Hydroacoustic detection of natural gas release from the seafloor has been conducted in the past by using singlebeam echosounders. In contrast, modern multibeam swath mapping systems allow much wider coverage, higher resolution, and offer 3-D spatial correlation. Up to the present, the extremely high data rate hampers water column backscatter investigations and more sophisticated visualization and processing techniques are needed. Here, we present water column backscatter data acquired with a 50 kHz prototype multibeam system over a period of 75 seconds. Display types are of swath-images as well as of a "re-sorted" singlebeam presentation. Thus, individual and/or groups of gas bubbles rising from the 24 m deep seafloor clearly emerge in the acoustic images, making it possible to estimate rise velocities. A sophisticated processing scheme is introduced to identify those rising gas bubbles in the hydroacoustic data. We apply a cross-correlation technique adapted from particle imaging velocimetry (PIV) to the acoustic backscatter images. Temporal and spatial drift patterns of the bubbles are assessed and are shown to match very well to measured and theoretical rise patterns. The application of this processing to our field data gives clear results with respect to unambiguous bubble detection and remote bubble rise velocimetry. The method can identify and exclude the main source of misinterpretations, i.e. fish-mediated echoes. Although image-based cross-correlation techniques are well known in the field of fluid mechanics for high resolution and non-inversive current flow field analysis, we present the first application of this technique as an acoustic bubble detector.

Beschreibung: Black Sea coastal forecasting system Ocean Science, 8, 183-196, 2012 Author(s): A. I. Kubryakov, G. K. Korotaev, V. L. Dorofeev, Y. B. Ratner, A. Palazov, N. Valchev, V. Malciu, R. Matescu, and T. Oguz The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system) project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

Beschreibung: Spatial patterns of linear and nonparametric long-term trends in Baltic sea-level variability Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 95-111, 2012 Author(s): R. V. Donner, R. Ehrcke, S. M. Barbosa, J. Wagner, J. F. Donges, and J. Kurths The study of long-term trends in tide gauge data is important for understanding the present and future risk of changes in sea-level variability for coastal zones, particularly with respect to the ongoing debate on climate change impacts. Traditionally, most corresponding analyses have exclusively focused on trends in mean sea-level. However, such studies are not able to provide sufficient information about changes in the full probability distribution (especially in the more extreme quantiles). As an alternative, in this paper we apply quantile regression (QR) for studying changes in arbitrary quantiles of sea-level variability. For this purpose, we chose two different QR approaches and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different settings. In particular, traditional linear QR poses very restrictive assumptions that are often not met in reality. For monthly data from 47 tide gauges from along the Baltic Sea coast, the spatial patterns of quantile trends obtained in linear and nonparametric (spline-based) frameworks display marked differences, which need to be understood in order to fully assess the impact of future changes in sea-level variability on coastal areas. In general, QR demonstrates that the general variability of Baltic sea-level has increased over the last decades. Linear quantile trends estimated for sliding windows in time reveal a wide-spread acceleration of trends in the median, but only localised changes in the rates of changes in the lower and upper quantiles.

Beschreibung: On closure parameter estimation in chaotic systems Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 127-143, 2012 Author(s): J. Hakkarainen, A. Ilin, A. Solonen, M. Laine, H. Haario, J. Tamminen, E. Oja, and H. Järvinen Many dynamical models, such as numerical weather prediction and climate models, contain so called closure parameters. These parameters usually appear in physical parameterizations of sub-grid scale processes, and they act as "tuning handles" of the models. Currently, the values of these parameters are specified mostly manually, but the increasing complexity of the models calls for more algorithmic ways to perform the tuning. Traditionally, parameters of dynamical systems are estimated by directly comparing the model simulations to observed data using, for instance, a least squares approach. However, if the models are chaotic, the classical approach can be ineffective, since small errors in the initial conditions can lead to large, unpredictable deviations from the observations. In this paper, we study numerical methods available for estimating closure parameters in chaotic models. We discuss three techniques: off-line likelihood calculations using filtering methods, the state augmentation method, and the approach that utilizes summary statistics from long model simulations. The properties of the methods are studied using a modified version of the Lorenz 95 system, where the effect of fast variables are described using a simple parameterization.

Beschreibung: Sea surface temperature anomalies, seasonal cycle and trend regimes in the Eastern Pacific coast Ocean Science, 8, 81-90, 2012 Author(s): A. Ramos-Rodríguez, D. B. Lluch-Cota, S. E. Lluch-Cota, and A. Trasviña-Castro We used the extended reconstruction of sea surface temperature (ERSST) to analyze the variation of surface temperature and the seasonal cycle along the coast of the eastern Pacific (60° N–60° S, 61 pixels alongshore) from 1950 to 2010 (732 months). First, we analyzed the monthly anomalies and looked for a relationship of such anomalies with total solar irradiance (TSI) and then the Regime Shift Detector (RSD) was applied to detect possible temperature regimes in the series. Afterwards, we calculated a yearly temperature range per pixel (amplitude of seasonal cycle) and through the subtraction of a latitudinal theoretical curve of temperature based on solar irradiance, the residuals of the seasonal cycle were obtained. The results showed an almost complete spatial synchrony and dominance of negative anomalies from 1950 to mid-late 1970's, with a switch to near-zero and positive anomalies that lasted up to late 1990's when a new shift to negative values was detected. Such a shift lasted until the early 2000's when positive anomalies appeared again but there was a change to negative anomalies in the late 2000's. These results were supported by the RSD. The TSI variability shows a clear relationship with that of sea surface temperature anomalies and with the regime changes. This is probably due to a difference in the amount of energy received from the sun. Comparing the "cool regime" versus the "warm regime", the second one received 0.39% more energy (approximately 3 × 10 8 J m −2 ) from the sun. Seasonal cycles show larger ranges at northern latitudes (〉40° N), northern tropical-temperate transition zone (20°–26° N) and in the tropical-equatorial band (0°–30° S). The smallest ranges occur at 0°–16° N and 50°–60° S. The residuals (seasonal minus the theoretical curve) indicated a clear modulation due to advection by ocean currents.

Beschreibung: Comprehensive analysis of tornado statistics in comparison to earthquakes: intensity and temporal behaviour Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 47-57, 2013 Author(s): L. Schielicke and P. Névir Tornadoes and earthquakes are characterised by a high variability in their properties concerning intensity, geometric properties and temporal behaviour. Earthquakes are known for power-law behaviour in their intensity (Gutenberg–Richter law) and temporal statistics (e.g. Omori law and interevent waiting times). The observed similarity of high variability of these two phenomena motivated us to compare the statistical behaviour of tornadoes using seismological methods and quest for power-law behaviour. In general, the statistics of tornadoes show power-law behaviour partly coextensive with characteristic scales when the temporal resolution is high (10 to 60 min). These characteristic scales match with the typical diurnal behaviour of tornadoes, which is characterised by a maximum of tornado occurrences in the late afternoon hours. Furthermore, the distributions support the observation that tornadoes cluster in time. Finally, we shortly discuss a possible similar underlying structure composed of heterogeneous, coupled, interactive threshold oscillators that possibly explains the observed behaviour.

Beschreibung: Quantifying soil complexity using network models of soil porous structure Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 41-45, 2013 Author(s): M. Samec, A. Santiago, J. P. Cárdenas, R. M. Benito, A. M. Tarquis, S. J. Mooney, and D. Korošak This paper describes an investigation into the properties of spatially embedded complex networks representing the porous architecture of soil systems. We suggest an approach to quantify the complexity of soil pore structure based on the node-node link correlation properties of the networks. We show that the complexity depends on the strength of spatial embedding of the network and that this is related to the transition from a non-compact to compact phase of the network.

Beschreibung: Assimilation of sea-ice concentration in a global climate model – physical and statistical aspects Ocean Science, 9, 19-36, 2013 Author(s): S. Tietsche, D. Notz, J. H. Jungclaus, and J. Marotzke We investigate the initialisation of Northern Hemisphere sea ice in the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM by assimilating sea-ice concentration data. The analysis updates for concentration are given by Newtonian relaxation, and we discuss different ways of specifying the analysis updates for mean thickness. Because the conservation of mean ice thickness or actual ice thickness in the analysis updates leads to poor assimilation performance, we introduce a proportional dependence between concentration and mean thickness analysis updates. Assimilation with these proportional mean-thickness analysis updates leads to good assimilation performance for sea-ice concentration and thickness, both in identical-twin experiments and when assimilating sea-ice observations. The simulation of other Arctic surface fields in the coupled model is, however, not significantly improved by the assimilation. To understand the physical aspects of assimilation errors, we construct a simple prognostic model of the sea-ice thermodynamics, and analyse its response to the assimilation. We find that an adjustment of mean ice thickness in the analysis update is essential to arrive at plausible state estimates. To understand the statistical aspects of assimilation errors, we study the model background error covariance between ice concentration and ice thickness. We find that the spatial structure of covariances is best represented by the proportional mean-thickness analysis updates. Both physical and statistical evidence supports the experimental finding that assimilation with proportional mean-thickness updates outperforms the other two methods considered. The method described here is very simple to implement, and gives results that are sufficiently good to be used for initialising sea ice in a global climate model for seasonal to decadal predictions.

Beschreibung: Toward a multivariate reanalysis of the North Atlantic Ocean biogeochemistry during 1998–2006 based on the assimilation of SeaWiFS chlorophyll data Ocean Science, 9, 37-56, 2013 Author(s): C. Fontana, P. Brasseur, and J.-M. Brankart Today, the routine assimilation of satellite data into operational models of ocean circulation is mature enough to enable the production of global reanalyses describing the ocean circulation variability during the past decades. The expansion of the "reanalysis" concept from ocean physics to biogeochemistry is a timely challenge that motivates the present study. The objective of this paper is to investigate the potential benefits of assimilating satellite-estimated chlorophyll data into a basin-scale three-dimensional coupled physical–biogeochemical model of the North Atlantic. The aim is on the one hand to improve forecasts of ocean biogeochemical properties and on the other hand to define a methodology for producing data-driven climatologies based on coupled physical–biogeochemical modeling. A simplified variant of the Kalman filter is used to assimilate ocean color data during a 9-year period. In this frame, two experiments are carried out, with and without anamorphic transformations of the state vector variables. Data assimilation efficiency is assessed with respect to the assimilated data set, nitrate of the World Ocean Atlas database and a derived climatology. Along the simulation period, the non-linear assimilation scheme clearly improves the surface analysis and forecast chlorophyll concentrations, especially in the North Atlantic bloom region. Nitrate concentration forecasts are also improved thanks to the assimilation of ocean color data while this improvement is limited to the upper layer of the water column, in agreement with recent related literature. This feature is explained by the weak correlation taken into account by the assimilation between surface phytoplankton and nitrate concentrations deeper than 50 meters. The assessment of the non-linear assimilation experiments indicates that the proposed methodology provides the skeleton of an assimilative system suitable for reanalyzing the ocean biogeochemistry based on ocean color data.

Beschreibung: Analysis of asymmetries in propagating mode-2 waves Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 59-69, 2013 Author(s): J. Olsthoorn, A. Baglaenko, and M. Stastna Using numerical simulations performed with a pseudo-spectral incompressible Navier–Stokes solver, we describe the asymmetries that arise in the recirculating core of mode-2 internal, solitary-like waves. The waves are generated in a manner consistent with many laboratory studies, namely via the collapse of a region of mixed fluid. Analysis of the simulations reveals that asymmetries across both the wave crest and the pycnocline centre develop in the spatial distribution of density, kinetic energy and a passive tracer transported by the mode-2 waves. The simulations are extended to three-dimensions to allow for the formation of spanwise instabilities. We find that three-dimensionalization modifies the structure and energetics of the core, but that the majority of the results obtained from two dimensional simulations remain valid. Taken together, our simulations demonstrate that the cores of solitary-like mode-2 waves are different then their counterparts for mode-1 waves and that their accurate characterization on both lab and field scales should account for the core asymmetry across the pycnocline centre.

Beschreibung: Ion motion in the current sheet with sheared magnetic field – Part 1: Quasi-adiabatic theory Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 163-178, 2013 Author(s): A. V. Artemyev, A. I. Neishtadt, and L. M. Zelenyi We present a theory of trapped ion motion in the magnetotail current sheet with a constant dawn–dusk component of the magnetic field. Particle trajectories are described analytically using the quasi-adiabatic invariant corresponding to averaging of fast oscillations around the tangential component of the magnetic field. We consider particle dynamics in the quasi-adiabatic approximation and demonstrate that the principal role is played by large (so called geometrical) jumps of the quasi-adiabatic invariant. These jumps appear due to the current sheet asymmetry related to the presence of the dawn–dusk magnetic field. The analytical description is compared with results of numerical integration. We show that there are four possible regimes of particle motion. Each regime is characterized by certain ranges of values of the dawn–dusk magnetic field and particle energy. We find the critical value of the dawn–dusk magnetic field, where jumps of the quasi-adiabatic invariant vanish.

Beschreibung: A clustering analysis of eddies' spatial distribution in the South China Sea Ocean Science, 9, 171-182, 2013 Author(s): J. Yi, Y. Du, X. Wang, Z. He, and C. Zhou Spatial variation is important for studying the mesoscale eddies in the South China Sea (SCS). To investigate such spatial variations, this study made a clustering analysis on eddies' distribution using the K-means approach. Results showed that clustering tendency of anticyclonic eddies (AEs) and cyclonic eddies (CEs) were weak but not random, and the number of clusters were proved greater than four. Finer clustering results showed 10 regions where AEs densely populated and 6 regions for CEs in the SCS. Previous studies confirmed these partitions and possible generation mechanisms were related. Comparisons between AEs and CEs revealed that patterns of AE are relatively more aggregated than those of CE, and specific distinctions were summarized: (1) to the southwest of Luzon Island, AEs and CEs are generated spatially apart; AEs are likely located north of 14° N and closer to shore, while CEs are to the south and further offshore. (2) The central SCS and Nansha Trough are mostly dominated by AEs. (3) Along 112° E, clusters of AEs and CEs are located sequentially apart, and the pairs off Vietnam represent the dipole structures. (4) To the southwest of the Dongsha Islands, AEs are concentrated to the east of CEs. Overlaps of AEs and CEs in the northeastern and southern SCS were further examined considering seasonal variations. The northeastern overlap represented near-concentric distributions while the southern one was a mixed effect of seasonal variations, complex circulations and topography influences.

Beschreibung: Sea surface freshening inferred from SMOS and ARGO salinity: impact of rain Ocean Science, 9, 183-192, 2013 Author(s): J. Boutin, N. Martin, G. Reverdin, X. Yin, and F. Gaillard The sea surface salinity (SSS) measured from space by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission has recently been revisited by the European Space Agency first campaign reprocessing. We show that, with respect to the previous version, biases close to land and ice greatly decrease. The accuracy of SMOS SSS averaged over 10 days, 100 × 100 km 2 in the open ocean and estimated by comparison to ARGO (Array for Real-Time Geostrophic Oceanography) SSS is on the order of 0.3–0.4 in tropical and subtropical regions and 0.5 in a cold region. The averaged negative SSS bias (−0.1) observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean between 5° N and 15° N, relatively to other regions, is suppressed when SMOS observations concomitant with rain events, as detected from SSM/Is (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) rain rates, are removed from the SMOS–ARGO comparisons. The SMOS freshening is linearly correlated to SSM/Is rain rate with a slope estimated to −0.14 mm −1 h, after correction for rain atmospheric contribution. This tendency is the signature of the temporal SSS variability between the time of SMOS and ARGO measurements linked to rain variability and of the vertical salinity stratification between the first centimeter of the sea surface layer sampled by SMOS and the 5 m depth sampled by ARGO. However, given that the whole set of collocations includes situations with ARGO measurements concomitant with rain events collocated with SMOS measurements under no rain, the mean −0.1 bias and the negative skewness of the statistical distribution of SMOS minus ARGO SSS difference are very likely the mean signature of the vertical salinity stratification. In the future, the analysis of ongoing in situ salinity measurements in the top 50 cm of the sea surface and of Aquarius satellite SSS are expected to provide complementary information about the sea surface salinity stratification.

Beschreibung: Microstructure observations during the spring 2011 STRATIPHYT-II cruise in the northeast Atlantic Ocean Science, 8, 945-957, 2012 Author(s): E. Jurado, H. A. Dijkstra, and H. J. van der Woerd Small-scale temperature and conductivity variations have been measured in the upper 100 m of the northeast Atlantic during the STRATIPHYT-II cruise (Las Palmas–Reykjavik, 6 April–3 May 2011). The measurements were done at midday and comprised 2 to 15 vertical profiles at each station. The derived turbulent quantities show a transition between weakly-stratified (mixed layer depth, MLD, 100), which was centered at about 48° N. The temperature eddy diffusivities, K T , range from 10 −5 to 10 0 m 2 s −1 in the weakly-stratified stations, and range from 3 × 10 −4 to 2 × 10 0 m 2 s −1 in the well-mixed stations. The turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rates, ε, range from 3 × 10 −8 to 2 × 10 −6 m 2 s −3 south of the transition zone, and from 10 −7 to 10 −5 m 2 s −3 north of the transition zone. The station-averaged K T values throughout the mixed layer increase exponentially with the wind speed. The station-averaged ε values throughout the mixed layer scale with the wind stress similarity variable with a scaling factor of about 1.8 in the wind-dominated stations (ε ≈ 1.8 u ☆ 3 /(−κ z )). The values of K T and ε are on average 10 times higher compared to the values measured at the same stations in July 2009. The results presented here constitute a unique data set giving large spatial coverage of upper ocean spring turbulence quantities.

Beschreibung: Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 623-633, 2012 Author(s): F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, Y. He, J. Freer, and H. L. Cloke Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs) through regional climate models (RCMs) potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS) techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1) a simple direct method (DM), (2) quantile-quantile mapping (QM) and (3) a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts) project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.

Beschreibung: Impact of the sea surface temperature forcing on hindcasts of Madden-Julian Oscillation events using the ECMWF model Ocean Science, 8, 1071-1084, 2012 Author(s): E. de Boisséson, M. A. Balmaseda, F. Vitart, and K. Mogensen This paper explores the sensitivity of hindcasts of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) to the use of different sea surface temperture (SST) products as lower boundary conditions in the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric model. Three sets of monthly hindcast experiments are conducted, starting from initial conditions from the ERA interim reanalysis. First, as a reference, the atmosphere is forced by the SST used to produce ERA interim. In the second and third experiments, the SST is switched to the OSTIA (Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea-Ice Analysis) and the AVHRR-only (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) reanalyses, respectively. Tests on the temporal resolution of the SST show that monthly fields are not optimal, while weekly and daily resolutions provide similar MJO scores. When using either OSTIA or AVHRR, the propagation of the MJO is degraded and the resulting scores are lower than in the reference experiment. Further experiments show that this loss of skill cannot be attributed to either the difference in mean state or temporal variability between the SST products. Additional diagnostics show that the phase relationship between either OSTIA or AVHRR SST and the MJO convection is distorted with respect to satellite observations and the ERA interim reanalysis. This distortion is expected to impact the MJO hindcasts, leading to a relative loss of forecast skill. A realistic representation of ocean–atmosphere interactions is thus needed for MJO hindcasts, but not all SST products – though accurate for other purposes – fulfill this requirement.

Beschreibung: Imbalance of energy and momentum source terms of the sea wave transfer equation for fully developed seas Ocean Science, 8, 1085-1098, 2012 Author(s): G. V. Caudal In the concept of full development, the sea wave spectrum is regarded as a nearly stationary solution of the wave transfer equation, where source and sink terms should be in balance with respect to both energy and momentum. Using a two-dimensional empirical sea wave spectral model at full development, this paper performs an assessment of the compatibility of the energy and momentum budgets of sea waves over the whole spectral range. Among the various combinations of model functions for wave breaking and wind source terms tested, not one is found to fulfill simultaneously the energy and momentum balance of the transfer equation. Based on experimental and theoretical grounds, wave breaking is known to contribute to frequency downshift of a narrow-banded wave spectrum when the modulational instability is combined with wave breaking. On those grounds, it is assumed that, in addition to dissipation, wave breaking produces a spectral energy flux directed toward low wavenumbers. I show that it is then possible to remove the energy and momentum budget inconsistency, and correspondingly the required strength of this spectral flux is estimated. Introducing such a downward spectral flux permits fulfilling both energy and momentum balance conditions. Meanwhile, the consistency between the transfer equation and empirical spectra, estimated by means of a cost function K, is either improved or slightly reduced, depending upon the wave breaking and wind source terms chosen. Other tests are performed in which it is further assumed that wave breaking would also be associated with azimuthal diffusion of the spectral energy. This would correspondingly reduce the required downward spectral flux by a factor of up to 5, although it would not be able to remove it entirely.

Beschreibung: A typical wave wake from high-speed vessels: its group structure and run-up Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 179-188, 2013 Author(s): I. Didenkulova and A. Rodin High-amplitude water waves induced by high-speed vessels are regularly observed in Tallinn Bay, the Baltic Sea, causing intense beach erosion and disturbing marine habitants in the coastal zone. Such a strong impact on the coast may be a result of a certain group structure of the wave wake. In order to understand it, here we present an experimental study of the group structure of these wakes at Pikakari beach, Tallinn Bay. The most energetic vessel waves at this location (100 m from the coast at the water depth 2.7 m) have amplitudes of about 1 m and periods of 8–10 s and cause maximum run-up heights on a beach up to 1.4 m. These waves represent frequency modulated packets where the largest and longest waves propagate ahead of other smaller amplitude and period waves. Sometimes the groups of different heights and periods can be separated even within one wave wake event. The wave heights within a wake are well described by the Weibull distribution, which has different parameters for wakes from different vessels. Wave run-up heights can also be described by Weibull distribution and its parameters can be connected to the parameters of the distribution of wave heights 100 m from the coast. Finally, the run-up of individual waves within a packet is studied. It is shown that the specific structure of frequency modulated wave packets, induced by high-speed vessels, leads to a sequence of high wave run-ups at the coast, even when the original wave heights are rather moderate. This feature can be a key to understanding the significant impact on coasts caused by fast vessels.

Beschreibung: High frequency fluctuations in the heat content of an ocean general circulation model Ocean Science, 8, 813-825, 2012 Author(s): A. M. Huerta-Casas and D. J. Webb The transport and storage of heat by the ocean is of crucial importance because of its effect on ocean dynamics and its impact on the atmosphere, climate and climate change. Unfortunately, limits to the amount of data that can be collected and stored mean that many experimental and modelling studies of the heat budget have to make use of mean datasets where the effects of short term fluctuations are lost. In this paper we investigate the magnitude of the resulting errors by making use of data from OCCAM, a high resolution global ocean model. The model carries out a proper heat balance every time step so any imbalances that are found in the analysis must result from the use of mean fields. The study concentrates on two areas of the ocean affecting the El Nino. The first is the region of tropical instability waves north of the Equator. The second is in the upwelling region along the Equator. It is shown that in both cases, processes with a period of less than five days can have a significant impact on the heat budget. Thus, analyses using data averaged over five days or more are likely to have significant errors. It is also shown that if a series of instantaneous values is available, reasonable estimates can be made of the size of the errors. In model studies, such values are available in the form of the datasets used to restart the model. In experimental studies they may be in the form of individual unaveraged observations.

Beschreibung: A 20-year reanalysis experiment in the Baltic Sea using three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) method Ocean Science, 8, 827-844, 2012 Author(s): W. Fu, J. She, and M. Dobrynin A 20-year retrospective reanalysis of the ocean state in the Baltic Sea is constructed by assimilating available historical temperature and salinity profiles into an operational numerical model with three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) method. To determine the accuracy of the reanalysis, the authors present a series of comparisons to independent observations on a monthly mean basis. In the reanalysis, temperature (T) and salinity (S) fit better with independent measurements than the free run at different depths. Overall, the mean biases of temperature and salinity for the 20 year period are reduced by 0.32 °C and 0.34 psu, respectively. Similarly, the mean root mean square error (RMSE) is decreased by 0.35 °C for temperature and 0.3 psu for salinity compared to the free run. The modeled sea surface temperature, which is mainly controlled by the weather forcing, shows the least improvements due to sparse in situ observations. Deep layers, on the other hand, witness significant and stable model error improvements. In particular, the salinity related to saline water intrusions into the Baltic Proper is largely improved in the reanalysis. The major inflow events such as in 1993 and 2003 are captured more accurately as the model salinity in the bottom layer is increased by 2–3 psu. Compared to independent sea level at 14 tide gauge stations, the correlation between model and observation is increased by 2%–5%, while the RMSE is generally reduced by 10 cm. It is found that the reduction of RMSE comes mainly from the reduction of mean bias. In addition, the changes in density induced by the assimilation of T/S contribute little to the barotropic transport in the shallow Danish Transition zone. The mixed layer depth exhibits strong seasonal variations in the Baltic Sea. The basin-averaged value is about 10 m in summer and 30 m in winter. By comparison, the assimilation induces a change of 20 m to the mixed layer depth in deep waters and wintertime, whereas small changes of about 2 m occur in summer and shallow waters. It is related to the strong heating in summer and the dominant role of the surface forcing in shallow water, which largely offset the effect of the assimilation.

Beschreibung: Evaluation of Release-05 GRACE time-variable gravity coefficients over the ocean Ocean Science, 8, 859-868, 2012 Author(s): D. P. Chambers and J. A. Bonin The latest release of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) gravity field coefficients (Release-05, or RL05) are evaluated for ocean applications. Data have been processed using the current methodology for Release-04 (RL04) coefficients, and have been compared to output from two different ocean models. Results indicate that RL05 data from the three Science Data Centers – the Center for Space Research (CSR), GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) – are more consistent among themselves than the previous RL04 data. Moreover, the variance of residuals with the output of an ocean model is 50–60% lower for RL05 data than for RL04 data. A more optimized destriping algorithm is also tested, which improves the results slightly. By comparing the GRACE maps with two different ocean models, we can better estimate the uncertainty in the RL05 maps. We find the standard error to be about 1 cm (equivalent water thickness) in the low- and mid-latitudes, and between 1.5 and 2 cm in the polar and subpolar oceans, which is comparable to estimated uncertainty for the output from the ocean models.

Beschreibung: The Mediterranean Ocean Colour Observing System – system development and product validation Ocean Science, 8, 869-883, 2012 Author(s): G. Volpe, S. Colella, V. Forneris, C. Tronconi, and R. Santoleri This paper presents the Mediterranean Ocean Colour Observing System in the framework of the growing demand of near real-time data emerging within the operational oceanography international context. The main issues related to the satellite operational oceanography are tied to the following: (1) the near real-time ability to track data flow uncertainty sources; (2) in case of failure, to provide backup solutions to end-users; and (3) to scientifically assess the product quality. We describe the major scientific and technological steps made to develop, maintain and improve the operational system and its products. A method for assessing the near real-time product quality is developed and its limitation discussed. Main results are concerned with the degradation, starting from mid-2010, of the MODIS Aqua channel at 443 nm with its successive recovery thanks to the new calibration scheme implemented in the recently released SeaDAS version 6.4. The product validation analysis highlights that SeaWiFS chlorophyll product over the Mediterranean Sea is the best performing in comparison with those of MODIS and MERIS. Despite their general good agreement with in situ observations, MODIS- and MERIS-derived chlorophyll present a slight and systematic underestimation of the in situ counter part. The most relevant implications induced by these results are discussed from an operational point of view.

Beschreibung: Fractal analysis of ULF electromagnetic emissions in possible association with earthquakes in China Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 577-583, 2012 Author(s): Y. Ida, D. Yang, Q. Li, H. Sun, and M. Hayakawa The long-term data (during the period of 1 March 2003 through 31 December 2006) of ULF geomagnetic variations observed at Kashi station (geographic coordinates: 39.5° N, 76.0° E) in China have been used to investigate the long-term variation of fractal dimension of ULF emissions. We have studied the changes in fractal dimension in association with several earthquakes around the observation station. It is then found that a significant change (or decrease) in the fractal dimension of the Z component took place before the 1 September 2003 earthquake, which lends a further support to our previous finding based on our improved polarization analysis for the same earthquake. The results obtained are discussed in the contexts of a few aspects (detectability of seismogenic emissions, comparison with previous results by other analysis methods, the importance of fractal analysis in the nonlinear process of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction).

Beschreibung: Predictability of a low-order interactive ensemble Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 273-282, 2012 Author(s): L. Siqueira and B. Kirtman In this paper, numerical and analytical studies were performed to uncover the mechanisms controlling the changes in ensemble spread of a low-order coupled model with multiple atmospheric realizations. An interactive ensemble approach was applied to a coupled dynamical system based on two versions of the Lorenz 63 model designed in order to imitate the behavior of a coupled system with different time scales. In the dynamic system used in this work the spread of ensemble members is highly dependent on the mean state corresponding to asymmetries in predictability. The slowness of the slow model and the intensity of the boundary forcing anomalies both contribute to the asymmetry and phase locking of both subsystems. The mechanisms controlling the fast model spread were uncovered revealing uncertainty dynamics depending on the location of ensemble members in the fast model phase space and implicitly on the slowness and magnitude of the slow model anomalies.

Beschreibung: The coherence of small island sea level with the wider ocean: a model study Ocean Science, 9, 111-119, 2013 Author(s): Joanne Williams and Chris W. Hughes Studies comparing tide gauge measurements with sea level from nearby satellite altimetry have shown good agreement for some islands and poor agreement for others, though no explanation has been offered. Using the 1/12° OCCAM ocean model, we investigate the relationship between sea level at small, open-ocean islands and offshore sea level. For every such island or seamount in the model, we compare the shallow-water sea level with the steric and bottom pressure variability in a neighbouring ring of deep water. We find a latitude-dependent range of frequencies for which off-shore sea level is poorly correlated with island sea level. This poor coherence occurs in a spectral region for which steric signals dominate, but are unable to propagate as baroclinic Rossby waves. This mode of decoupling does not arise because of islands bathymetry, as the same decoupling is seen between deep ocean points and surrounding rings.

Beschreibung: Interaction of a monopole vortex with an isolated topographic feature in a three-layer geophysical flow Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 107-119, 2013 Author(s): E. A. Ryzhov and K. V. Koshel In the frame of a three-layer, quasi-geostrophic analytical model of an f -plane geophysical flow, the Lagrangian advection induced by the interaction of a monopole vortex with an isolated topographic feature is addressed. Two different cases when the monopole is located either within the upper or the middle layer are of our interest. In the bottom layer, there is a delta-function topographic feature, which generates a closed recirculation region in its vicinity due to the background flow. This recirculation region extends to the middle and upper layers, and it plays the role of a topographic vortex. The interaction between the monopole and the topographic vortex causes a complex, including chaotic, advection of fluid particles. We show that the model's parameters, namely the monopole and topographic vortices' strengths and initial positions, and the layers' depths and densities, are responsible for the diverse advection patterns. While the patterns are rather complicated, one can single out two major processes, which mostly govern the fluid particle advection. The first one is the variation in time of the system's phase space structure, so that within the closed region of the topographic vortex, there appear periodically unclosed particle pathways by which the particles leave the topographic vortex. The second one is chaotic advection that arises from the nonstationarity of the monopole–topography interaction.

Beschreibung: X-band COSMO-SkyMed wind field retrieval, with application to coastal circulation modeling Ocean Science, 9, 121-132, 2013 Author(s): A. Montuori, P. de Ruggiero, M. Migliaccio, S. Pierini, and G. Spezie In this paper, X-band COSMO-SkyMed © synthetic aperture radar (SAR) wind field retrieval is investigated, and the obtained data are used to force a coastal ocean circulation model. The SAR data set consists of 60 X-band Level 1B Multi-Look Ground Detected ScanSAR Huge Region COSMO-SkyMed © SAR data, gathered in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea during the summer and winter seasons of 2010. The SAR-based wind vector field estimation is accomplished by resolving both the SAR-based wind speed and wind direction retrieval problems independently. The sea surface wind speed is retrieved by means of a SAR wind speed algorithm based on the azimuth cut-off procedure, while the sea surface wind direction is provided by means of a SAR wind direction algorithm based on the discrete wavelet transform multi-resolution analysis. The obtained wind fields are compared with ground truth data provided by both ASCAT scatterometer and ECMWF model wind fields. SAR-derived wind vector fields and ECMWF model wind data are used to construct a blended wind product regularly sampled in both space and time, which is then used to force a coastal circulation model of a southern Tyrrhenian coastal area to simulate wind-driven circulation processes. The modeling results show that X-band COSMO-SkyMed © SAR data can be valuable in providing effective wind fields for coastal circulation modeling.

Beschreibung: Characterization of turbulence stability through the identification of multifractional Brownian motions Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 97-106, 2013 Author(s): K. C. Lee Multifractional Brownian motions have become popular as flexible models in describing real-life signals of high-frequency features in geoscience, microeconomics, and turbulence, to name a few. The time-changing Hurst exponent, which describes regularity levels depending on time measurements, and variance, which relates to an energy level, are two parameters that characterize multifractional Brownian motions. This research suggests a combined method of estimating the time-changing Hurst exponent and variance using the local variation of sampled paths of signals. The method consists of two phases: initially estimating global variance and then accurately estimating the time-changing Hurst exponent. A simulation study shows its performance in estimation of the parameters. The proposed method is applied to characterization of atmospheric stability in which descriptive statistics from the estimated time-changing Hurst exponent and variance classify stable atmosphere flows from unstable ones.

Beschreibung: A tri-stage cluster identification model for accurate analysis of seismic catalogs Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 143-162, 2013 Author(s): S. J. Nanda, K. F. Tiampo, G. Panda, L. Mansinha, N. Cho, and A. Mignan In this paper we propose a tri-stage cluster identification model that is a combination of a simple single iteration distance algorithm and an iterative K-means algorithm. In this study of earthquake seismicity, the model considers event location, time and magnitude information from earthquake catalog data to efficiently classify events as either background or mainshock and aftershock sequences. Tests on a synthetic seismicity catalog demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed model in terms of accuracy percentage (94.81% for background and 89.46% for aftershocks). The close agreement between lambda and cumulative plots for the ideal synthetic catalog and that generated by the proposed model also supports the accuracy of the proposed technique. There is flexibility in the model design to allow for proper selection of location and magnitude ranges, depending upon the nature of the mainshocks present in the catalog. The effectiveness of the proposed model also is evaluated by the classification of events in three historic catalogs: California, Japan and Indonesia. As expected, for both synthetic and historic catalog analysis it is observed that the density of events classified as background is almost uniform throughout the region, whereas the density of aftershock events are higher near the mainshocks.

Beschreibung: Scaling for lobe and cleft patterns in particle-laden gravity currents Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 121-130, 2013 Author(s): A. Jackson, B. Turnbull, and R. Munro Lobe and cleft patterns are frequently observed at the leading edge of gravity currents, including non-Boussinesq particle-laden currents such as powder snow avalanches. Despite the importance of the instability in driving air entrainment, little is known about its origin or the mechanisms behind its development. In this paper we seek to gain a better understanding of these mechanisms from a laboratory scale model of powder snow avalanches using lightweight granular material. The instability mechanisms in these flows appear to be a combination of those found in both homogeneous Boussinesq gravity currents and unsuspended granular flows, with the size of the granular particles playing a central role in determining the wavelength of the lobe and cleft pattern. When scaled by particle diameter a relationship between the Froude number and the wavelength of the lobe and cleft pattern is found, where the wavelength increases monotonically with the Froude number.

Beschreibung: Inversion of the western Pacific subtropical high dynamic model and analysis of dynamic characteristics for its abnormality Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 131-142, 2013 Author(s): M. Hong, R. Zhang, J. X. Li, J. J. Ge, and K. F. Liu Based on time series data of 500 hPa potential field from NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Forecast of American/National Center for Atmospheric Research), a novel consideration of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) time–space separation and dynamic system reconstruction for time series is introduced. This method consists of two parts: first, the dynamical model inversion and model parameter optimization are carried out on the EOF time coefficient series using the genetic algorithm (GA), and, second, a nonlinear dynamic model representing the subtropical high (SH) activity and its abnormality is established. The SH activity and its abnormal mechanism is studied using the developed dynamical model. Results show that the configuration and diversification of the SH equilibriums have good correspondence with the actual short–medium term abnormal activity of the SH. Change of SH potential field brought by the combination of equilibriums is more complex than that by mutation, and their exhibition patterns are different. The mutation behavior from high-value to low-value equilibriums of the SH in summer corresponds with the southward drop of the SH in the observed weather process. The combination behavior of the two steady equilibriums corresponds with disappearance of the "double-ridge" phenomenon of the SH. Dynamical mechanisms of these phenomena are explained.

Beschreibung: Wavefield decomposition and phase space dynamics of the seismic noise at Volcàn de Colima, Mexico: evidence of a two-state source process Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 71-84, 2013 Author(s): M. Palo and P. Cusano We analyse the seismic noise recorded at the Colima Volcano (Mexico) in the period December 2005–May 2006 by four broadband three-component seismic stations. Specifically, we characterize the spectral content of the signal and follow its time evolution along all the data set. Moreover, we infer the properties of the attractor in the phase space by false nearest neighbours analysis and Grassberger–Procaccia algorithm, and adopt a time-domain decomposition method (independent component analysis) to find the basic constituents (independent components) of the system. Constraints on the seismic wavefield are inferred by the polarization analysis. We find two states of the background seismicity visible in different time-intervals that are Phase A and Phase B. Phase A has a spectrum with two peaks at 0.15 Hz and 0.3 Hz, with the latter dominating, an attractor of correlation dimension close to 3, three quasi-monochromatic independent components, and a relevant fraction of crater-pointing polarization solutions in the near-field. In Phase B, the spectrum is preserved but with the highest peak at 0.15 Hz, the attractor has a correlation dimension close to 2, two independent components are extracted, and the polarization solutions are dominated by Rayleigh waves incoming from the southwest direction. We depict two sources acting on the background seismicity that are the microseismic noise loading on the Pacific coastline and a low-energy volcanic tremor. A change in the amplitude of the microseismic noise can induce the switching from a state of the system to the other.

Beschreibung: Net primary productivity, upwelling and coastal currents in the Gulf of Ulloa, Baja California, México Ocean Science, 8, 703-711, 2012 Author(s): E. González-Rodríguez, A. Trasviña-Castro, G. Gaxiola-Castro, L. Zamudio, and R. Cervantes-Duarte The Gulf of Ulloa, a highly productive area off the western coast of the Baja California Peninsula, is examined for five successive years (2003–2007) by using satellite data and seasonal net primary productivity (NPP) estimates obtained from a vertical generalised production model. The results identify that northwestern winds blow parallel to the coast throughout the year. However, highest NPP occurs from March to June. During this period, an equatorward coastal current transports water from neighbouring upwelling areas to the northern Gulf of Ulloa and in combination with local upwelling, which injects nutrients into the euphotic zone, produce the observed increase in NPP. The opposite situation occurs in late summer when a warm poleward current of tropical characteristics arrives and inhibits the productivity in the whole region and generates the yearly lowest NPP levels. Our findings reveal the importance of lateral advection in the modulation of the primary productivity in this subtropical upwelling region.

Beschreibung: Assessment of a physical-biogeochemical coupled model system for operational service in the Baltic Sea Ocean Science, 8, 683-701, 2012 Author(s): Z. Wan, J. She, M. Maar, L. Jonasson, and J. Baasch-Larsen Thanks to the abundant observation data, we are able to deploy the traditional point-to-point comparison and statistical measures in combination with a comprehensive model validation scheme to assess the skills of the biogeochemical model ERGOM in providing an operational service for the Baltic Sea. The model assessment concludes that the operational products can resolve the main observed seasonal features for phytoplankton biomass, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, dissolved inorganic phosphorus and dissolved oxygen in euphotic layers as well as their vertical profiles. This assessment reflects that the model errors of the operational system at the current stage are mainly caused by insufficient light penetration, excessive organic particle export downward, insufficient regional adaptation and some from improper initialization. This study highlights the importance of applying multiple schemes in order to assess model skills rigidly and identify main causes for major model errors.

Beschreibung: An operational model for the West Iberian coast: products and services Ocean Science, 8, 713-732, 2012 Author(s): M. Mateus, G. Riflet, P. Chambel, L. Fernandes, R. Fernandes, M. Juliano, F. Campuzano, H. de Pablo, and R. Neves This paper presents the structure and application of a regional scale operational modelling tool for the West Iberian coast, and discusses its potential for products and services for both scientific and coastal management activities. The forecasting suite includes nested hydrodynamic models forced with up-to-date meteorological forecast data and large-scale model results. The present status of the system and its recent upgrades are reviewed, offering a general description of the main components of the system: the forcing data, the circulation model, the model outputs and the validation methodology of model results. Seasonal differences in temperature, salinity and current velocity fields are illustrated and show satisfactory reproduction of the top and deep layer thermodynamics. The system provides boundary forcing for a number of local-scale model applications via downscaling of the solution and enables potential products and services from which civil society will benefit.

Beschreibung: On the shelf resonances of the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Arafura Sea Ocean Science, 8, 733-750, 2012 Author(s): D. J. Webb A numerical model is used to investigate the resonances of the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Arafura Sea, and the additional insights that come from extending the analysis into the complex angular velocity plane. When the model is forced at the shelf edge with physically realistic real values of the angular velocity, the response functions at points within the region show maxima and other behaviour which imply that resonances are involved but provide little additional information. The study is then extended to complex angular velocities, and the results then show a clear pattern of gravity wave and Rossby wave like resonances. The properties of the resonances are investigated and used to reinterpret the response at real values of angular velocity. It is found that in some regions the response is dominated by modes trapped between the shelf edge and the coast or between opposing coastlines. In other regions the resonances show cooperative behaviour, possibly indicating the importance of other physical processes.

Beschreibung: The analysis of large-scale turbulence characteristics in the Indonesian seas derived from a regional model based on the Princeton Ocean Model Ocean Science, 8, 615-631, 2012 Author(s): K. O'Driscoll and V. Kamenkovich Turbulence characteristics in the Indonesian seas on the horizontal scale of order of 100 km were calculated with a regional model of the Indonesian seas circulation in the area based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). As is well known, the POM incorporates the Mellor–Yamada turbulence closure scheme. The calculated characteristics are: twice the turbulence kinetic energy per unit mass, q 2 ; the turbulence master scale, ℓ; mixing coefficients of momentum, K M ; and temperature and salinity, K H ; etc. The analyzed turbulence has been generated essentially by the shear of large-scale ocean currents and by the large-scale wind turbulence. We focused on the analysis of turbulence around important topographic features, such as the Lifamatola Sill, the North Sangihe Ridge, the Dewakang Sill, and the North and South Halmahera Sea Sills. In general, the structure of turbulence characteristics in these regions turned out to be similar. For this reason, we have carried out a detailed analysis of the Lifamatola Sill region because dynamically this region is very important and some estimates of mixing coefficients in this area are available. Briefly, the main results are as follows. The distribution of q 2 is quite adequately reproduced by the model. To the north of the Lifamatola Sill (in the Maluku Sea) and to the south of the Sill (in the Seram Sea), large values of q 2 occur in the deep layer extending several hundred meters above the bottom. The observed increase of q 2 near the very bottom is probably due to the increase of velocity shear and the corresponding shear production of q 2 very close to the bottom. The turbulence master scale, ℓ, was found to be constant in the main depth of the ocean, while ℓ rapidly decreases close to the bottom, as one would expect. However, in deep profiles away from the sill, the effect of topography results in the ℓ structure being unreasonably complicated as one moves towards the bottom. Values of 15 to 20 × 10 −4 m 2 s −1 were obtained for K M and K H in deep water in the vicinity of the Lifamatola Sill. These estimates agree well with basin-scale averaged values of 13.3 × 10 −4 m 2 s −1 found diagnostically for K H in the deep Banda and Seram Seas (Gordon et al., 2003) and a value of 9.0 × 10 −4 m 2 s −1 found diagnostically for K H for the deep Banda Sea system (van Aken et al., 1988). The somewhat higher simulated values can be explained by the presence of steep topography around the sill.

Beschreibung: Review Article: "The Lagrangian description of aperiodic flows: a case study of the Kuroshio Current" Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 449-472, 2012 Author(s): C. Mendoza and A. M. Mancho This article reviews several recently developed Lagrangian tools and shows how their combined use succeeds in obtaining a detailed description of purely advective transport events in general aperiodic flows. In particular, because of the climate impact of ocean transport processes, we illustrate a 2-D application on altimeter data sets over the area of the Kuroshio Current, although the proposed techniques are general and applicable to arbitrary time dependent aperiodic flows. The first challenge for describing transport in aperiodical time dependent flows is obtaining a representation of the phase portrait where the most relevant dynamical features may be identified. areas that are related to confinement regions. This representation is accomplished by using global Lagrangian descriptors that when applied for instance to the altimeter data sets retrieve over the ocean surface a phase portrait where the geometry of interconnected dynamical systems is visible. The phase portrait picture is essential because it evinces which transport routes are acting on the whole flow. Once these routes are roughly recognised, it is possible to complete a detailed description by the direct computation of the finite time stable and unstable manifolds of special hyperbolic trajectories that act as organising centres of the flow.

Beschreibung: TOPAZ4: an ocean-sea ice data assimilation system for the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean Science, 8, 633-656, 2012 Author(s): P. Sakov, F. Counillon, L. Bertino, K. A. Lisæter, P. R. Oke, and A. Korablev We present a detailed description of TOPAZ4, the latest version of TOPAZ – a coupled ocean-sea ice data assimilation system for the North Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. It is the only operational, large-scale ocean data assimilation system that uses the ensemble Kalman filter. This means that TOPAZ features a time-evolving, state-dependent estimate of the state error covariance. Based on results from the pilot MyOcean reanalysis for 2003–2008, we demonstrate that TOPAZ4 produces a realistic estimate of the ocean circulation in the North Atlantic and the sea-ice variability in the Arctic. We find that the ensemble spread for temperature and sea-level remains fairly constant throughout the reanalysis demonstrating that the data assimilation system is robust to ensemble collapse. Moreover, the ensemble spread for ice concentration is well correlated with the actual errors. This indicates that the ensemble statistics provide reliable state-dependent error estimates – a feature that is unique to ensemble-based data assimilation systems. We demonstrate that the quality of the reanalysis changes when different sea surface temperature products are assimilated, or when in-situ profiles below the ice in the Arctic Ocean are assimilated. We find that data assimilation improves the match to independent observations compared to a free model. Improvements are particularly noticeable for ice thickness, salinity in the Arctic, and temperature in the Fram Strait, but not for transport estimates or underwater temperature. At the same time, the pilot reanalysis has revealed several flaws in the system that have degraded its performance. Finally, we show that a simple bias estimation scheme can effectively detect the seasonal or constant bias in temperature and sea-level.

Beschreibung: Atlantic transport variability at 25° N in six hydrographic sections Ocean Science, 8, 497-523, 2012 Author(s): C. P. Atkinson, H. L. Bryden, S. A. Cunningham, and B. A. King In January and February 2010, a sixth transatlantic hydrographic section was completed across 25° N, extending the hydrographic record at this latitude to over half a century. In combination with continuous transport measurements made since 2004 at 26.5° N by the Rapid-WATCH project, we reassess transport variability in the 25° N hydrographic record. Past studies of transport variability at this latitude have assumed transport estimates from each hydrographic section to represent annual average conditions. In this study the uncertainty in this assumption is assessed through use of Rapid-WATCH observations to quantify sub-seasonal and seasonal transport variability. Whilst in the upper-ocean no significant interannual or decadal transport variability are identified in the hydrographic record, in the deep ocean transport variability in both depth and potential temperature classes suggests some interannual or decadal variability may have occurred. This is particularly striking in the lower North Atlantic Deep Water where southward transports prior to 1998 were greater than recent transports by several Sverdrups. Whilst a cooling and freshening of Denmark Straits Overflow Water has occurred which is coincident with these transport changes, these water mass changes appear to be density compensated. Transport changes are the result of changing velocity shear in the vicinity of the Deep Western Boundary Current.

Beschreibung: Propagation and dissipation of internal tides in the Oslofjord Ocean Science, 8, 525-543, 2012 Author(s): A. Staalstrøm, E. Aas, and B. Liljebladh Observations of velocity, pressure, temperature and salinity in the inner Oslofjord have been analysed to provide new information about the relationships between internal tides generated by tidal currents across the Drøbak Sill and dissipation and diffusivity in the fjord. The most energetic vertical displacement of density surfaces inside the sill is associated with the first internal mode that has maximum amplitude around sill depth. The amplitude of the vertical displacement around sill depth correlates with the amplitude of the surface elevation, and, at a distance of 1 km inside the sill, the ratio between the amplitudes is 38, decreasing to 11 at a distance of 10 km. The greatest vertical displacements inside the sill, however, are found at 40 m depth. These latter internal waves are not associated with a first-mode internal tide, but are rather associated with higher internal modes controlled by stratification. The energy flux of the internal wave propagating from the Drøbak Sill into the inner fjord on the east side of the Håøya Island is estimated to vary in the range 155–430 kW. This is the same order of magnitude as the estimated barotropic energy loss over the Drøbak Sill (250 kW), but only 4–10% of the total barotropic flux. Approximately 40–70% of the internal energy flux is lost within a distance of 10 km from the sill. The mean diffusivity below 90 m depth in this area (~20 cm 2 s −1 ) is more than four times higher than in the rest of the fjord (~5 cm 2 s −1 or less).

Beschreibung: Cosmic rays and stochastic magnetic reconnection in the heliotail Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 351-364, 2012 Author(s): P. Desiati and A. Lazarian Galactic cosmic rays are believed to be generated by diffusive shock acceleration processes in Supernova Remnants, and the arrival direction is likely determined by the distribution of their sources throughout the Galaxy, in particular by the nearest and youngest ones. Transport to Earth through the interstellar medium is expected to affect the cosmic ray properties as well. However, the observed anisotropy of TeV cosmic rays and its energy dependence cannot be explained with diffusion models of particle propagation in the Galaxy. Within a distance of a few parsec, diffusion regime is not valid and particles with energy below about 100 TeV must be influenced by the heliosphere and its elongated tail. The observation of a highly significant localized excess region of cosmic rays from the apparent direction of the downstream interstellar flow at 1–10 TeV energies might provide the first experimental evidence that the heliotail can affect the transport of energetic particles. In particular, TeV cosmic rays propagating through the heliotail interact with the 100–300 AU wide magnetic field polarity domains generated by the 11 yr cycles. Since the strength of non-linear convective processes is expected to be larger than viscous damping, the plasma in the heliotail is turbulent. Where magnetic field domains converge on each other due to solar wind gradient, stochastic magnetic reconnection likely occurs. Such processes may be efficient enough to re-accelerate a fraction of TeV particles as long as scattering processes are not strong. Therefore, the fractional excess of TeV cosmic rays from the narrow region toward the heliotail direction traces sightlines with the lowest smearing scattering effects, that can also explain the observation of a harder than average energy spectrum.

Beschreibung: Calibration of a radiocarbon age Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 345-350, 2012 Author(s): D. J. Keenan The calibration of a radiocarbon age to a calendar date is reviewed. It is shown that the commonly-used programs for calibration sometimes give results that are significantly in error.

Beschreibung: Operational SAR-based sea ice drift monitoring over the Baltic Sea Ocean Science, 8, 473-483, 2012 Author(s): J. Karvonen An algorithm for computing ice drift from pairs of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images covering a common area has been developed at FMI. The algorithm has been developed based on the C-band SAR data over the Baltic Sea. It is based on phase correlation in two scales (coarse and fine) with some additional constraints. The algorithm has been running operationally in the Baltic Sea from the beginning of 2011, using Radarsat-1 ScanSAR wide mode and Envisat ASAR wide swath mode data. The resulting ice drift fields are publicly available as part of the MyOcean EC project. The SAR-based ice drift vectors have been compared to the drift vectors from drifter buoys in the Baltic Sea during the first operational season, and also these validation results are shown in this paper. Also some navigationally useful sea ice quantities, which can be derived from ice drift vector fields, are presented.

Beschreibung: Magnetic transfer function entropy and the 2009 M w = 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake (Central Italy) Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 401-409, 2012 Author(s): G. Cianchini, A. De Santis, D. R. Barraclough, L. X. Wu, and K. Qin With the aim of obtaining a deeper knowledge of the physical phenomena associated with the 2009 L'Aquila (Central Italy) seismic sequence, culminating with a M w = 6.3 earthquake on 6 April 2009, and possibly of identifying some kind of earthquake-related magnetic or geoelectric anomaly, we analyse the geomagnetic field components measured at the magnetic observatory of L'Aquila and their variations in time. In particular, trends of magnetic transfer functions in the years 2006–2010 are inspected. They are calculated from the horizontal to vertical magnetic component ratio in the frequency domain, and are very sensitive to deep and lateral geoelectric characteristics of the measurement site. Entropy analysis, carried out from the transfer functions with the so called transfer function entropy, points out clear temporal burst regimes of a few distinct harmonics preceding the main shock of the seismic sequence. A possible explanation is that they could be related to deep fluid migrations and/or to variations in the micro-/meso-fracturing that affected significantly the conductivity (ordered/disordered) distribution in a large lithospheric volume under the seismogenic layer below L'Aquila area. This interpretation is also supported by the analysis of hypocentres depths before the main shock occurrence.

Beschreibung: Impact of SLA assimilation in the Sicily Channel Regional Model: model skills and mesoscale features Ocean Science, 8, 485-496, 2012 Author(s): A. Olita, S. Dobricic, A. Ribotti, L. Fazioli, A. Cucco, C. Dufau, and R. Sorgente The impact of the assimilation of MyOcean sea level anomalies along-track data on the analyses of the Sicily Channel Regional Model was studied. The numerical model has a resolution of 1/32° degrees and is capable to reproduce mesoscale and sub-mesoscale features. The impact of the SLA assimilation is studied by comparing a simulation (SIM, which does not assimilate data) with an analysis (AN) assimilating SLA along-track multi-mission data produced in the framework of MyOcean project. The quality of the analysis was evaluated by computing RMSE of the misfits between analysis background and observations (sea level) before assimilation. A qualitative evaluation of the ability of the analyses to reproduce mesoscale structures is accomplished by comparing model results with ocean colour and SST satellite data, able to detect such features on the ocean surface. CTD profiles allowed to evaluate the impact of the SLA assimilation along the water column. We found a significant improvement for AN solution in terms of SLA RMSE with respect to SIM (the averaged RMSE of AN SLA misfits over 2 years is about 0.5 cm smaller than SIM). Comparison with CTD data shows a questionable improvement produced by the assimilation process in terms of vertical features: AN is better in temperature while for salinity it gets worse than SIM at the surface. This suggests that a better a-priori description of the vertical error covariances would be desirable. The qualitative comparison of simulation and analyses with synoptic satellite independent data proves that SLA assimilation allows to correctly reproduce some dynamical features (above all the circulation in the Ionian portion of the domain) and mesoscale structures otherwise misplaced or neglected by SIM. Such mesoscale changes also infer that the eddy momentum fluxes (i.e. Reynolds stresses) show major changes in the Ionian area. Changes in Reynolds stresses reflect a different pumping of eastward momentum from the eddy to the mean flow, in turn influencing transports through the channel.

Beschreibung: Haar wavelets, fluctuations and structure functions: convenient choices for geophysics Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 513-527, 2012 Author(s): S. Lovejoy and D. Schertzer Geophysical processes are typically variable over huge ranges of space-time scales. This has lead to the development of many techniques for decomposing series and fields into fluctuations Δ v at well-defined scales. Classically, one defines fluctuations as differences: (Δ v diff = v(x +Δ x )- v(x) and this is adequate for many applications (Δ x is the "lag"). However, if over a range one has scaling Δ v ∝ Δ x H , these difference fluctuations are only adequate when 0 〈 H 〈 1. Hence, there is the need for other types of fluctuations. In particular, atmospheric processes in the "macroweather" range ≈10 days to 10–30 yr generally have −1 〈 H 〈 0, so that a definition valid over the range −1 〈 H 〈 1 would be very useful for atmospheric applications. A general framework for defining fluctuations is wavelets. However, the generality of wavelets often leads to fairly arbitrary choices of "mother wavelet" and the resulting wavelet coefficients may be difficult to interpret. In this paper we argue that a good choice is provided by the (historically) first wavelet, the Haar wavelet (Haar, 1910), which is easy to interpret and – if needed – to generalize, yet has rarely been used in geophysics. It is also easy to implement numerically: the Haar fluctuation (Δ v Haar at lag Δ x is simply equal to the difference of the mean from x to x + Δ x /2 and from x +Δ x /2 to x +Δ x . Indeed, we shall see that the interest of the Haar wavelet is this relation to the integrated process rather than its wavelet nature per se. Using numerical multifractal simulations, we show that it is quite accurate, and we compare and contrast it with another similar technique, detrended fluctuation analysis. We find that, for estimating scaling exponents, the two methods are very similar, yet Haar-based methods have the advantage of being numerically faster, theoretically simpler and physically easier to interpret.