ALBERT

Description: Although catchment storage is an intrinsic control on the rainfall-runoff response of streams, direct measurement remains a major challenge. Coupled models that integrate long-term hydrometric and isotope tracer data are useful tools that can provide insights into the dynamics of catchment storage and the volumes of water involved. In this study, we use a tracer-aided hydrological model to characterize catchment storage as a dynamic control on system function related to streamflow generation, which also allows direct estimation of the non-stationarity of water ages. We show that in a wet Scottish upland catchment dominated by runoff generation from riparian peats (histosols) with high water storage, non-stationarity in water age distributions are only clearly detectable during more extreme wet and dry periods. This is explained by the frequency and longevity of hydrological connectivity and the associated relative importance of flow paths contributing younger or older waters to the stream. Generally, these saturated riparian soils represent large mixing zones that buffer the time variance of water age and integrate catchment-scale partial mixing processes. Although storage simulations depend on model performance, which is influenced by input variability and the degree of isotopic damping in the stream, a longer-term storage analysis of this model indicates a system which is only sensitive to more extreme hydroclimatic variability. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Herein, we report on the crystal structures of Nb 2 AlC and TiNbAlC—actual composition (Ti 0.45 ,Nb 0.55 ) 2 AlC—compounds determined from Rietveld analysis of neutron diffraction patterns in the 300–1173 K temperature range. The average linear thermal expansion coefficients of a Nb 2 AlC sample in the a and c directions are, respectively, 7.9(5) × 10 −6 and 7.7(5) × 10 −6  K −1 on one neutron diffractometer and 7.3(3) × 10 −6 and 7.0(2) × 10 −6  K −1 on a second diffractometer. The respective values for the (Ti 0.45 ,Nb 0.55 ) 2 AlC composition—only tested on one diffractometer—are 8.5(3) × 10 −6 and 7.5(5) × 10 −6  K −1 . These values are relatively low compared to other MAX phases. Like other MAX phases, however, the atomic displacement parameters (APDs) show that the Al atoms vibrate with higher amplitudes than the Ti and C atoms, and more along the basal planes than normal to them. When the predictions of the APDs obtained from density functional theory are compared to the experimental results, good quantitative agreement is found for the Al atoms. In case of the Nb and C atoms, the agreement was more qualitative.

Description: In this study, lithium disilicate (LS 2 ) glass samples with different particle sizes ranging from less than 105 to 850 μm were prepared. These specimens were inserted in a Pt-Rh DSC crucible and heated to 850°C at different rates (ϕ = 0.5–30 K/min) to identify their crystallization peaks. The activation energies for the overall crystallization ( E ) and the Avrami coefficient ( n ) were evaluated using different nonisothermal models. Specifically, n was evaluated using the Augis–Benett model and the Ozawa method, and E was evaluated using the Kissinger and Ligero methods. As expected, the coarse particles mainly crystallized in the volume, while surface crystallization was predominant in the samples with particle sizes of less than 350 μm. This result was confirmed through SEM analysis of the double stage heat-treated samples. In contrast with previous studies, our results demonstrated that the activation energy decreased as the particle size increased. In addition, no clear correlation between the peak intensity (δ T p ) and the particle size was observed.

Description: In this letter, 2-μm Pb 0.97 La 0.02 (Zr 0.75 Sn 0.18 Ti 0.07 )O 3 antiferroelectric thick film with tetragonal structure was prepared. The effects of operating electric field, temperature, and frequency on the thermal–electrical energy harvesting capacity of the film were studied by using the Olsen cycle. The results demonstrated that giant energy harvesting effect could be realized in the antiferroelectric thick film. The maximum harvestable energy density per cycle of the film was about 7.8 J/cm 3 at 1 kHz, which was the largest reported value to date. The corresponding energy harvesting efficiency was 0.53%. Moreover, the film had a low leakage current density (about 7.3 × 10 −7 and 3.9 × 10 −5  A/cm 2 at 25 and 200°C, respectively), which was favorable for its application in the devices of the thermal–electrical energy harvesting.

Description: Discharged energy properties of PbO–SrO–Na 2 O–Nb 2 O 5 –SiO 2 glass-ceramics with crystallization time from 1 to 1000 min were investigated by measuring their hysteresis loops (described as quasi-static measuring method) and pulse-discharge current-time curves (described as dynamic measuring method). The results show the same trend for both measuring methods: With the increment of crystallization time, the discharged energy density increases gradually, while the energy efficiency decreases. The highest energy efficiencies were obtained in the sample with crystallization time of 1 min, which are 96.3% and 82.4%, corresponding quasi-static and dynamic measurement, respectively. The reduction of energy efficiency with crystallization time is attributed to combined effect of ferroelectric polarization and interfacial polarization, and part of the corresponding energy could not release in the pulse-discharge process.

Description: New lead-free perovskite solid solution ceramics of (1  − x )( Bi 1/2 Na 1/2 ) TiO 3 – x Ba ( Ni 1/2 Nb 1/2 ) O 3 [(1− x )BNT– x BNN, x  =   0.02–0.06) were prepared and their dielectric, ferroelectric, piezoelectric, and electromechanical properties were investigated as a function of the BNN content. The X-ray diffraction results indicated that the addition of BNN has induced a morphotropic phase transformation from rhombohedral to pseudocubic symmetry approximately at x  =   0.045, accompanying an evolution of dielectric relaxor behavior as characterized by enhanced dielectric diffuseness and frequency dispersion. In the proximity of the ferroelectric rhombohedral and pseudocubic phase coexistence zone, the x  =   0.045 ceramics exhibited optimal piezoelectric and electromechanical coupling properties of d 33 ~121 pC/N and k p ~0.27 owing to decreased energy barriers for polarization switching. However, further addition of BNN could cause a decrease in freezing temperatures of polar nanoregions till the coexistence of nonergodic and ergodic relaxor phases occurred near room temperature, especially for the x  =   0.05 sample which has negligible negative strains and thus show the maximum electrostrain of 0.3% under an external electric field of 7 kV/mm, but almost vanished piezoelectric properties. This was attributed to the fact that the induced long-range ferroelectric order could reversibly switch back to its original ergodic state upon removal of external electric fields.

Description: Light transmission in polycrystalline magnesium fluoride was studied as a function of the mean grain size at different wavelengths. The mean grain size was varied by annealing hot-pressed billets in argon atmosphere at temperatures ranging from 600°C to 800°C for 1 h. The grain-size and grain-orientation distributions were characterized by electron back scatter diffraction. The scattering coefficients were calculated from the in-line transmittance measured at various wavelengths. The scattering coefficient of polycrystalline magnesium fluoride increased linearly with the mean grain size and inversely with the square of the wavelength of light. It is shown that these trends are consistent with theoretical models based on both a limiting form of the Raleigh–Gans–Debye (RGD) theory of particle scattering and light retardation theories that take refractive index variations along the light path. Quantitative predictions of the theories are, however, subject to uncertainly due to the restrictive assumptions made in the theories and difficulties in representing the microstructure in the theoretical models. In particular, grain-size distribution has a significant influence on the scattering coefficient calculated using particle scattering models.

Description: Determining the absolute chronology of ceramic artifacts has significant implications for archeological and historical research. Wilson, Hall et al . recently suggested a new technique for direct absolute dating of archeological ceramics based on a moisture-induced chemical reaction, called rehydroxylation (RHX) dating. RHX dating proceeds by measuring the mass of chemically combined water in the ceramics in the form of OH hydroxyls, and the mass gain rate at the Effective Lifetime Temperature (ELT) that the ceramics experienced over its lifetime. To date, ELT determinations have been based on estimates of the ceramic's lifetime temperature history; taking into account weather and climate data and the depth at which the artifact was found. The uncertainty in determining the ELT can be a major component of the overall dating uncertainty. Here, we propose an alternative method which relies minimally on weather and climate data, and provides more precise determinations of the ELT and the ceramic age . The proposed method (SAS: Same Age Samples) involves a minimum of four measurements of the RHX mass gain rate constant for two ceramic samples of the same age at two temperatures. We show via simulations that the proposed SAS method can determine the ELT with a precision of 0.2 K which is comparable to the best ELT determination based on lifetime temperature history, and also comparable to available microbalance temperature resolutions of around 0.1 K. The corresponding percent age error is then 1.4%, or 43 yr for a 3000-yr-old ceramic. The proposed SAS method should be tested with ceramic samples of different ages, whose ELT are well-known.

Description: Glasses in the Na 2 O–CaO–SrO–ZnO–SiO 2 system have previously been investigated for suitability as a reagent in Al-free glass polyalkenoate cements (GPCs). These materials have many properties that offer potential in orthopedics. However, their applicability has been limited, to date, because of their poor strength. This study was undertaken with the aim of increasing the mechanical properties of a series of these Zn-based GPC glasses by doping with nitrogen to give overall compositions of: 10Na 2 O–10CaO–20SrO–20ZnO–(40−3 x )SiO 2 – x Si 3 N 4 ( x is the no. of moles of Si 3 N 4 ). The density, glass-transition temperature, hardness, and elastic modulus of each glass were found to increase fairly linearly with nitrogen content. Indentation fracture resistance also increases with nitrogen content according to a power law relationship. These increases are consistent with the incorporation of N into the glass structure in threefold coordination with silicon resulting in extra cross-linking of the glass network. This was confirmed using 29 Si MAS-NMR which showed that an increasing number of Q 2 units and some Q 3 units with extra bridging anions are formed as nitrogen content increases at the expense of Q 1 units. A small proportion of Zn ions are found to be in tetrahedral coordination in the base oxide glass and the proportion of these increases with the presence of nitrogen.

Description: Phosphorus (P) is one of the major limiting nutrient in many freshwater ecosystems. During the last decade, attention has been focused on the fluxes of suspended sediment and particulate P through freshwater drainage systems because of severe eutrophication effects in aquatic ecosystems. Hence, the analysis and prediction of phosphorus and sediment dynamics constitutes an important element for ecological conservation and restoration of freshwater ecosystems. In that sense, the development ofa suitable prediction model is justified and the present work is devoted to the validation and application of a predictive Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (SRP) uptake and sedimentation models, to a real riparian system of the middle Ebro river floodplain. Both models are coupled to a fully distributed 2D shallow water flow numerical model. The SRP uptake model is validated using data from three field experiments. The model predictions show a good accuracy for SRP concentration, where the linear regressions between measured and calculated of the three experiments were significant ( r 2  ≥ 0.62; p  ≤ 0.05), and a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (E) that ranged from 0.54 to 0.62. The sedimentation model is validated using field data collected during 2 real flooding events within the same river reach. The comparison between calculated and measured sediment deposition showed a significant linear regression ( p  ≤ 0.05; r 2  = 0.97) and an E that ranged from 0.63 to 0.78. Subsequently, the complete model that includes flow dynamics, solute transport, SRP uptake and sedimentation is used to simulate and analyze floodplain sediment deposition, river nutrient contribution and SRP uptake. According to this analysis, the main SRP uptake process appears to be the sediment sorption. The analysis also reveals the presence of a lateral gradient of hydrological connectivity that decreases with distance from the river, and controls the river matter contribution to the floodplain. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The inherent effects of global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on hydrological cycle and vegetation cover complicate the structure of tropical climate at the regional scale. Assessing hydrological processes related to climate forcing is important in Central America because it is surrounded by both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and two continental landmasses. In this study, the use of high-resolution remote sensing imagery in wavelet analysis helps identify nonstationary characteristics of hydrological and ecological responses. The wavelet-based empirical orthogonal function (WEOF) further reflects the nonlinear relationship between the Atlantic and Pacific SST and the greenness of a pristine forested site in Panama, La Amistad International Park. Integrated WEOF and descriptive statistics for data analysis reveal a higher temporal variability in terrestrial precipitation relative to in-situ land surface temperature and its probable effects on the presence of dry periods. Such teleconnection signals of SST were identified as a driving force of decline in tropical forest greenness during dry periods. The results of our remote sensing-based wavelet analysis showed intrannual high frequency and biennial to triennial low frequency signals between enhanced vegetation index (EVI)/precipitation datasets and SST indices in both Atlantic and Pacific oceans. A spatiotemporal priority search further confirmed the importance of the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over terrestrial responses in the selected study site. Coincidence of the effect of ENSO teleconnection patterns on precipitation and vegetation suggest possible impacts of El Niño-associated droughts in Central America, accompanied by reduced rainfall, especially during the first months of rainy season (June, July and August), and decline in vegetation cover during the dry season (March and April). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 24, Issue 1, Page 3, January 2014.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 24, Issue 1, Page 23-24, January 2014.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 24, Issue 1, Page 227-228, January 2014.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 24, Issue 1, Page 71-83, January 2014. Concerns about bycatch of protected species have become a dominant factor shaping fisheries management. However, efforts to mitigate bycatch are often hindered by a lack of data on the distributions of fishing effort and protected species. One approach to overcoming this problem has been to overlay the distribution of past fishing effort with known locations of protected species, often obtained through satellite telemetry and occurrence data, to identify potential bycatch hotspots. This approach, however, generates static bycatch risk maps, calling into question their ability to forecast into the future, particularly when dealing with spatiotemporally dynamic fisheries and highly migratory bycatch species. In this study, we use boosted regression trees to model the spatiotemporal distribution of fishing effort for two distinct fisheries in the North Pacific Ocean, the albacore (Thunnus alalunga) troll fishery and the California drift gillnet fishery that targets swordfish (Xiphias gladius). Our results suggest that it is possible to accurately predict fishing effort using

Description: This paper evaluates the IBIS land surface model using daily soil moisture data over a three-year period (2005–2007) at a semi-arid site in southeastern Australia, the Stanley catchment, using the Monte-Carlo GLUE approach. The model was satisfactorily calibrated for both the surface 30 cm and full profile 90 cm. However, full-profile calibration was not as good as that for the surface, which results from some deficiencies in the evapotranspiration component in IBIS. Relatively small differences in simulated soil moisture were associated with large discrepancies in the predictions of surface runoff, drainage and evapotranspiration. We conclude that while land surface schemes may be effective at simulating heat fluxes they may be ineffective for prediction of hydrology unless the soil moisture is accurately estimated. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the soil moisture simulations were most sensitive to soil parameters, and the wilting point was the most identifiable parameter. Significant interactions existed between three soils parameters: porosity, saturated hydraulic conductivity and Campbell “b” exponent so they could not be identified independent of each other. There were no significant differences in parameter sensitivity and interaction for different hydroclimatic years. Even though the data record contained a very dry year and another year with a very large rainfall event, this indicated that the soil model could be calibrated without the data needing to explore the extreme range of dry and wet conditions. IBIS was much less sensitive to vegetation parameters. The leaf area index (LAI) could affect the mean of daily soil moisture time series when LAI 〈 1, while the variance of the soil moisture time series was sensitive to LAI 〉 1. IBIS was insensitive to the Jackson rooting parameter, suggesting that the effect of the rooting depth distribution on predictions of hydrology was insignificant. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: This study presents a thermodynamic analysis to predict the type of initial, amorphous oxide overgrowth (i.e., am - Al 2 O 3 or am - SiO 2 ) on bare Al – Si alloy substrates. This analysis have taken into account the energies associated with both its interfaces (interface between the Al – Si alloy substrate and the thin oxide film and interface between the thin oxide film and vacuum) along with the bulk Gibbs free energy of oxide formation. This developed analysis is then applied for various parameters, such as, Si alloying element content at the substrate/oxide interface, the growth temperature, the oxide film thickness (up to 1 nm), and various low-index crystallographic surfaces of the substrate. It is found that am - SiO 2 overgrowth is thermodynamically preferred for a combination of lower oxide film thickness, lower growth temperature, and lower Si alloying content at the alloy/oxide interface. This is because of the overcompensation of the lower energies of both the interfaces over the bulk Gibbs free energy. Furthermore, it is found that for all cases, am - Al 2 O 3 forms a more stable interface with Al – Si alloy than am - SiO 2.

Description: Over the past few decades ground water has become an essential commodity due to increased demand as a result of growing population, industrialization, urbanization etc. The water supply situation is expected to become more severe in the future because of continued unsustainable water use and projected change in hydro-meteorological parameters due to climate change. This study is based on the integrated approach of Remote Sensing (RS), Geographical Information System (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques to determine the most important contributing factors that affect the ground water resources and to delineate the ground water potential zones. Ten thematic layers viz. geomorphology, geology, soil, topographic elevation (DEM), land use/land cover, drainage density, lineament density, proximity of surface water bodies, surface temperature and post-monsoon ground water depth were considered for the present study. These thematic layers were selected for ground water prospecting based on literature, discussion with the experts of Central Ground Water Board (CGWB), Government of India, field observations, geophysical investigation and multivariate techniques. The thematic layers and their features were assigned suitable weights on the Saaty's scale according to their relative significance for ground water occurrence. The assigned weights of the layers and their features were normalized by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and eigenvector method. Finally, the selected thematic maps were integrated using weighted linear combination method to create the final ground water potential zone map. The final output map shows different zones of ground water potential, viz., very good (16%), good (35%), moderate (28%) low (17%) and very low (2.1%). The ground water potential zone map was finally validated using the discharge and ground water depth data from 28 and 98 pumping wells respectively which showed good correlation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Bank erosion is the main source of suspended sediment (SS) and diffuse total phosphorus (TP) in many lowland catchments. This study compared a physically based sediment routing method (Physical method), which distinguishes between stream bed and bank erosion, with the original sediment routing method (Original method) within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) version 2009, for simulating SS and TP losses from a lowland catchment. A SWAT model was set up for the lowland River Odense catchment in Denmark and calibrated against observed stream flow and phosphate (PO 4 ) loads. Based on an initial calibration of hydrological and PO 4 parameters, the SWAT model with the Original method (Original model) and the SWAT model with the Physical method (Physical model) were calibrated separately against observed SS and TP loads. The SWAT model simulated daily stream flow well, but underestimated PO 4 loads. The Physical model simulated daily SS and TP better than the Original model. The simulated contribution of bank erosion to SS in the Physical model (99%) was close to the estimated contribution from in-situ erosion measurements (90-94%). Compared with the Original method, the Physical method is not only more conceptually correct, but also improves model performance. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: This paper focuses on surface-subsurface water exchange in a steep coarse-bedded stream with step-pool morphology. We use both flume experiments and numerical modelling to investigate the influence of stream discharge, channel slope and sediment hydraulic conductivity on hyporheic exchange. The model step-pool reach, whose topography is scaled from a natural river, consists of 3 step-pool units with 0.1 m step heights, discharges ranging between base and over bankfull flows (scaled values of 0.3-4.5 L/s) and slopes of 4 and 8%. Results indicate that the deepest hyporheic flow occurs with the steeper slope and at moderate discharges and downwelling fluxes at the base of steps are highest at the largest stream discharges. In contrast to pool-riffle morphology, these findings show that steep slopes cause deeper surface-subsurface exchanges than gentle slopes. Numerical simulation results show that the portion of the hyporheic zone influenced by surface water temperature increases with sediment hydraulic conductivity. These experiments and numerical simulations emphasize the importance of topography, sediment permeability and roughness elements along the channel surface in governing the locations and magnitude of downwelling fluxes and hyporheic exchange. Our results show that hyporheic zones in these steep streams are thicker than previously expected by extending the results from streams with pool-riffle bed forms. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 24, Issue 1, Page 4-14, January 2014. Although market-based incentives have helped resolve many environmental challenges, conservation markets still play a relatively minor role in wildlife management. Establishing property rights for environmental goods and allowing trade between resource extractors and resource conservationists may offer a path forward in conserving charismatic species like whales, wolves, turtles, and sharks. In this paper, we provide a conceptual model for implementing a conservation market for wildlife and evaluate how such a market could be applied to three case studies for whales (minke [Balaenoptera acutorostrata], bowhead [Balaena mysticetus], and gray [Eschrictius robustus]). We show that, if designed and operated properly, such a market could ensure persistence of imperiled populations, while simultaneously improving the welfare of resource harvesters.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 24, Issue 1, Page 15-23, January 2014. We critique a proposal to use catch shares to manage transboundary wildlife resources with potentially high non-extractive values, and we focus on the case of whales. Because whales are impure public goods, a policy that fails to capture all nonmarket benefits (due to free riding) could lead to a suboptimal outcome. Even if free riding were overcome, whale shares would face four implementation challenges. First, a whale share could legitimize the international trade in whale meat and expand the whale meat market. Second, a legal whale trade creates monitoring and enforcement challenges similar to those of organizations that manage highly migratory species such as tuna. Third, a whale share could create a new political economy of management that changes incentives and increases costs for nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to achieve the current level of conservation. Fourth, a whale share program creates new logistical challenges for quota definition and allocation regardless of whether the market for whale products expands or contracts. Each of these issues, if left unaddressed, could result in lower overall welfare for society than under the status quo.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 24, Issue 1, Page 142-157, January 2014. Global wetland biodiversity loss continues unabated, driven by increased demand for freshwater. A key strategy for conservation management of freshwater systems is to maintain the quantity and quality of the natural water regimes, including the frequency and timing of flows. Formalizing an ecological model depicting the key ecological components and the underlying processes of cause and effect is required for successful conservation management. Models linking hydrology with ecological responses can prove to be an invaluable tool for robust decision-making of environmental flows. Here, we explored alternative water management strategies and identified maximal strategies for successful long-term management of colonial waterbirds in the Macquarie Marshes, Australia. We modeled fluctuations in breeding abundances of 10 colonial waterbird species over the past quarter century (1986–2010). Clear relationships existed between flows and breeding, both in frequencies and total abundances, with a strong linear relationship for flows 〉200 GL. Thresholds emerged for triggering breeding events in all 10 species, but these varied among species. Three species displayed a sharp threshold response between 100 GL and 250 GL. These had a breeding probability of 0.5 when flows were 〉180 GL and a 0.9 probability of breeding with flows 〉350 GL. The remaining species had a probability greater than 0.5 of breeding with flows 〉400 GL. Using developed models, we examined the effects of five environmental flow management strategies on the variability of flows and subsequent likelihood of breeding. Management to different target volumes of environmental flows affected overall and specific breeding probabilities. The likelihood of breeding for all 10 colonial waterbirds increased from a regulated historical mean (±SD) of 0.36 ± 0.09 to 0.53 ± 0.14, an improvement of 47.5% ± 18.7%. Management of complex ecosystems depends on good understanding of the responses of organisms to the main drivers of change. Considerable opportunity exists for implementing similar frameworks for other ecosystem attributes, following understanding of their responses to the flow regime, achieving a more complete model of the entire ecosystem.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 24, Issue 1, Page 84-93, January 2014. Information on landscape-scale patterns in species distributions and community types is vital for ecological science and effective conservation assessment and planning. However, detailed maps of plant community structure at landscape scales seldom exist due to the inability of field-based inventories to map a sufficient number of individuals over large areas. The Carnegie Airborne Observatory (CAO) collected hyperspectral and lidar data over Kruger National Park, South Africa, and these data were used to remotely identify 〉500 000 tree and shrub crowns over a 144-km2 landscape using stacked support vector machines. Maps of community compositional variation were produced by ordination and clustering, and the importance of hillslope-scale topo-edaphic variation in shaping community structure was evaluated with redundancy analysis. This remote species identification approach revealed spatially complex patterns in woody plant communities throughout the landscape that could not be directly observed using field-based methods alone. We estimated that topo-edaphic variables representing catenal sequences explained 21% of species compositional variation, while we also uncovered important community patterns that were unrelated to catenas, indicating a large role for other soil-related factors in shaping the savanna community. Our results demonstrate the ability of airborne species identification techniques to map biodiversity for the evaluation of ecological controls on community composition over large landscapes.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Vegetation-type conversions between grasslands and shrublands have occurred worldwide in semi-arid regions over the last 150 years. Areas once covered by drought deciduous shrubs in Southern California (Coastal Sage Scrub) are converting to grasslands dominated by non-native species. Increasing fire frequency, drought, and nitrogen deposition have all been hypothesized as causes of this conversion, though there is little direct evidence. We constructed rain-out shelters in a Coastal Sage Scrub community following a wildfire, manipulated water and nitrogen input in a split plot design, and collected annual data on community composition for four years. While shrub cover increased through time in all plots during the post-fire succession, both drought and nitrogen significantly slowed recovery. Four years after the fire, average native shrub cover ranged from over 80% in water addition, ambient nitrogen plots to 20% in water reduction, nitrogen addition plots. European grass cover was high following the fire and remained high in the water reduction plots through the third spring after the fire before decreasing in the fourth year of the study. Adding nitrogen decreased the cover of native plants and increased the cover of Eurasian grasses, but also increased growth of crown-sprouting individuals of one shrub species. Our results suggest that extreme drought during post-fire succession may slow or alter succession, possibly facilitating vegetation-type conversion of Coastal Sage Scrub to grassland. Nitrogen addition slowed succession and, when combined with drought, significantly decreased native cover and increased grass cover. Fire, drought, and atmospheric N deposition are widespread aspects of environmental change that occur simultaneously in this system. Our results suggest these drivers of change may reinforce each other, leading to a continued decline of native shrubs and conversion to annual grassland.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially-explicit, individual-based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement -- a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers -- might influence demogenetic connectivity and hence population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and also genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then apply this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, de-watering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss of genetic diversity and reduced sizes in certain vulnerable population. This demogenetic simulation framework, which is illustrated in a web-based interactive mapping prototype (http://ptolemy.dbs.umt.edu/pvm/), should be useful for evaluating population vulnerability in a wide variety of dendritic and fragmented riverscapes, helping to guide conservation and management efforts for freshwater species.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Tree and shrub abundance has increased in many grasslands causing changes in ecosystem carbon and nitrogen pools that are related to patterns of woody plant distribution. However, with regard to spatial patterns of shrub proliferation, little is known about (i) how they are influenced by grazing or (ii) the extent to which they are influenced by intraspecific interactions. We addressed these questions by quantifying changes in the spatial distribution of Prosopis velutina (mesquite) shrubs over 74 years on grazed and protected grasslands. Livestock are effective agents of mesquite dispersal and mesquite plants have lateral roots extending well beyond the canopy. We therefore hypothesized that mesquite distributions would be (a) random on grazed areas mainly due to cattle dispersion and clustered on protected areas due to decreased dispersal and interspecific interference with grasses; and (b) that clustered or random distributions at early stages of encroachment would give way to regular distributions as stands matured and density-dependent interactions intensified. Assessments in 1932, 1948 and 2006 supported the first hypothesis, but we found no support for the second. In fact, clustering intensified with time on the protected area and the pattern remained random on the grazed site. Although shrub density increased on both areas between 1932 and 2006, we saw no progression toward a regular distribution indicative of density-dependent interactions. We propose that processes related to seed dispersal, grass-shrub seedling interactions, and hydrological constraints on shrub size interact to determine vegetation structure in grassland-to-shrubland state changes with implications for ecosystem function and management.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Mounting evidence now shows that fishing activity modifies both heritable life-history traits and ecological processes in harvested populations. However, ecological and evolutionary changes are intimately linked and can occur on the same time-scale, and few studies have investigated their combined effect on fish population dynamics. Here, we contrast two population subunits of a harvested fish species in the Northeast Atlantic, the European hake (Merluccius merluccius), in the light of the emerging field of evolutionary demography, which considers the interacting processes between ecology and evolution. The two subunits experienced similar age/size truncation due to size-selective fishing, but displayed differences in key ecological processes (recruitment success) and phenotypic characteristics (maturation schedule). We investigate how temporal variation in maturation and recruitment success interactively shape the population dynamics of the two subunits. We document that the two subunits of European hake displayed different responses to fishing in maturation schedules, possibly because of the different level of adaptive phenotypic plasticity. Our results also suggest that high phenotypic plasticity can dampen the effects of fisheries-induced demographic truncation on population dynamics, whereas a population subunit characterized by low phenotypic plasticity may suffer from additive effects of ecological and life-history responses. Similar fishing pressure may thus trigger contrasting interactions between life history variation and ecological processes within the same population. The presented findings improve our understanding of how fishing impacts eco-evolutionary dynamics, which is a keystone for a more comprehensive management of harvested species.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Conservation practitioners, faced with managing multiple threats to biodiversity and limited funding, must prioritize investment in different management actions. From an economic perspective, it is routine practice to invest where the highest rate of return is expected. This return-on-investment (ROI) thinking can also benefit species conservation, and researchers are developing sophisticated approaches to support decision-making for cost-effective conservation. However, applied use of these approaches is limited. Managers may be wary of 'black-box' algorithms or complex methods that are difficult to explain to funding agencies. As an alternative, we demonstrate the use of a basic ROI analysis for determining where to invest in cost-effective management to address threats to species. This method can be applied using basic geographic information system and spread sheet calculations. We illustrate the approach in a management-action prioritization for a biodiverse region of eastern Australia. We use ROI to prioritize management actions for two threats to a suite of threatened species: habitat degradation by cattle grazing and predation by invasive red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). We show how decisions based on cost-effective threat management depend upon how expected benefits to species are defined and how benefits and costs co-vary. By considering a combination of species richness, restricted habitats, species vulnerability, and costs of management actions, small investments can result in greater expected benefit compared with management decisions that consider only species richness. Furthermore, a landscape management strategy that implements multiple actions is more efficient than managing only for one threat or more traditional approaches that don't consider ROI. Our approach provides transparent and logical decision-support for prioritizing different actions intended to abate threats associated with multiple species; it is of use when managers need a justifiable and repeatable approach to investment.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Fire is becoming a pervasive driver of environmental change in Amazonia and is expected to intensify, given projected reductions in precipitation and forest cover. Understanding of the influence of post-deforestation land cover change on fires in Amazonia is limited, even though fires in cleared lands constitute a threat for ecosystems, agriculture, and human health. We used MODIS satellite data to map burned areas annually between 2001 and 2010. We then combined these maps with land cover and climate information to understand the influence of land cover change in cleared lands and dry season severity on fire occurrence and spread in a focus area in the Peruvian Amazon. Fire occurrence, quantified as the probability of burning of individual 232m spatial resolution MODIS pixels was modeled as a function of the area of land cover types within each pixel, drought severity, and distance to roads. Fire spread, quantified as the number of pixels burned in 3x3 pixel windows around each focal burned pixel, was modeled as a function of land cover configuration and area, dry season severity, and distance to roads. We found that vegetation regrowth and oil palm expansion are significantly correlated with fire occurrence but that the magnitude and sign of the correlation depend on drought severity, successional stage of regrowing vegetation and oil palm age. Burning probability increased with the area of non-degraded pastures, fallow, and young oil palm and decreased with larger extents of degraded pastures, secondary forests and adult oil palm plantations. Drought severity had the strongest influence on fire occurrence overriding the effectiveness of secondary forests but not of adult plantations to reduce fire occurrence in severely dry years. Overall, irregular and scattered land cover patches reduced fire spread but irregular and dispersed fallows and secondary forests increased fire spread during dry years. Results underscore the importance of land cover management for reducing fire proliferation in this landscape. Incentives for promoting natural regeneration and perennial crops in cleared lands might help reduce fire risk if those areas are protected against burning in early stages of development and during severely dry years.

Description: Sintered nanoceramics of Pr -doped lanthanum hafnate, La 2 Hf 2 O 7 : Pr , were prepared by means of a high-pressure sintering technique using nanopowders made by Pechini method. Structure, morphology, and spectroscopic properties of the ceramics compared to the starting powder are presented and discussed. Emission and excitation spectra recorded at room temperature as well as at 7 K using synchrotron radiation are presented together with results of luminescence kinetics measurements. In ceramics, at 7 K, the Pr 3+ luminescence from 3 P 0 (blue-green, green, and red region) and 1 D 2 (red) levels is accompanied by a broad-band emission located in the 380–530 nm range of wavelengths, whereas powders gives only the Pr 3+ -related luminescence. Depending on the excitation wavelength, the broad-band emission maximum moves between 430 and 470 nm indicating superposition of at least two components. In sintered nanoceramics, the lifetimes of Pr 3+ emissions from 3 P 0 and 1 D 2 levels were by 10%–20% shorter compared to the powder. The existence of different luminescence centers was proved by the selective emission decays examination. The fast 5 d → 4 f luminescence of Pr 3+ was not observed from either of the two types of La 2 Hf 2 O 7 :Pr materials.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. There is a growing need for operational biodiversity mapping methods to quantify and to assess the impact of climate change, habitat alteration and human activity on ecosystem composition and function. Here, we present an original method for the estimation of α- and β-diversity of tropical forests based on high-fidelity imaging spectroscopy. We acquired imagery acquired over high-diversity Amazonian tropical forest landscapes in Perú with the Carnegie Airborne Observatory and developed an unsupervised method to estimate the Shannon Index (H') and variations in species composition using Bray-Curtis Dissimilarity (BC) and non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS). An extensive field plot network was used for the validation of remotely sensed α- and β-diversity. Airborne maps of H' were highly correlated with field α-diversity estimates (r = 0.86), and BC was estimated with demonstrable accuracy (r = 0.61-0.76). Our findings are the first direct and spatially-explicit remotely sensed estimates of α- and β-diversity of humid tropical forests, paving the way for new applications using airborne and space-based imaging spectroscopy.

Description: The objective of this analysis is to demonstrate the feasibility of using a composite L2 SMOS soil moisture product for determining drought conditions by taking advantage of its spatial and temporal resolution. The work investigates the potential relationships between soil moisture anomalies and two drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), both calculated on a ten-day basis. As the two drought indices can be applied to different time scales for precipitation series, the influence of time scale on the drought definition is also studied. The anomalies were calculated both for the in situ soil moisture by REMEDHUS (Soil Moisture Measurement Stations Network, Spain) and from the SMOS L2 soil moisture product. In general, in situ anomalies exhibit higher correlation coefficients for the drought indices than those of SMOS, except for the shortest time scale. As expected, the short-term remotely sensed anomalies have a high response to precipitation events. This effect may be due to the greater sensitivity of SMOS data to rainfall, as well as to the spatial averaged nature of its observations. The optimal time scale was one month for the SMOS values and ranged between 30 and 50 days for the in situ values. The use of evapotranspiration in the calculation of the indices did not improve the description of the anomalies. The relationship between indices and soil moisture conditions provides encouraging results. Indeed, this method generates preliminary but valuable insights for future satellite products. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 24, Issue 1, Page 229-233, January 2014.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 24, Issue 1, Page 181-195, January 2014. Stable isotopes are valuable tools for partitioning the components contributing to ecological processes of interest, such as animal diets and trophic interactions, plant resource use, ecosystem gas fluxes, streamflow, and many more. Stable isotope data are often analyzed with simple linear mixing (SLM) models to partition the contributions of different sources, but SLM models cannot incorporate a mechanistic understanding of the underlying processes and do not accommodate additional data associated with these processes (e.g., environmental covariates, flux data, gut contents). Thus, SLM models lack predictive ability. We describe a process-based mixing (PBM) model approach for integrating stable isotopes, other data sources, and process models to partition different sources or process components. This is accomplished via a hierarchical Bayesian framework that quantifies multiple sources of uncertainty and enables the incorporation of process models and prior information to help constrain the source-specific proportional contributions, thereby potentially avoiding identifiability issues that plague SLM models applied to “too many” sources. We discuss the application of the PBM model framework to three diverse examples: temporal and spatial partitioning of streamflow, estimation of plant rooting profiles and water uptake profiles (or water sources) with extension to partitioning soil and ecosystem CO2 fluxes, and reconstructing animal diets. These examples illustrate the advantages of the PBM modeling approach, which facilitates incorporation of ecological theory and diverse sources of information into the mixing model framework, thus enabling one to partition key process components across time and space.

Description: Remote estimation of river discharge from river width variations is an intriguing method for gauging rivers without conventional measurements. Entirely cloud-free imagery of an entire river reach is often rare, but partial coverage is more frequent. Discharge is estimated from spatially discontinuous imagery via construction of multiple width-discharge rating curves within a 62 km reach of the Tanana River, Alaska. The resulting discharge error is as low as 6.7% RMSE. Imagery covering 〈20% of the study reach can be used. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: We have investigated the electromechanical response of potassium sodium niobate ( K 0.5 Na 0.5 NbO 3 or KNN) thick films. The high-field strain hysteresis loops and weak-field converse piezoelectric d 33 coefficient of the films were measured and compared with those of KNN bulk ceramics under the same electric field conditions. The converse d 33 values of the thick films and bulk ceramics were equal to 82.5 and 138 pm/V, respectively, at 0.4 kV/mm. The fundamental difference between the piezoelectric response of the KNN films and the ceramics was studied in terms of the effective (“clamped”) piezoelectric d 33 coefficient. The reduction in the piezoelectric d 33 coefficient of the KNN films, resulting from the clamping by the substrate, was compared to lead-based ferroelectric thick films, including Pb ( Zr , Ti ) O 3 (PZT) and (1 −  x ) Pb ( Mg 1/3 Nb 2/3 ) O 3 − x PbTiO 3 (PMN-PT). We propose a possible explanation, based on the particular elastic properties of KNN, for the small relative difference observed between the “clamped” and “unclamped” (“bulk”) d 33 of KNN, in comparison with lead-based systems.

Description: Lead zirconate titanate (PbZr 1 −  x Ti x O 3 , PZT)/epoxy composites with one- dimensional epoxy in PZT matrix (called 3-1 type piezocomposites) have been fabricated by tert-butyl alcohol (TBA)-based directional freeze casting of PZT matrix and afterward infiltration of epoxy. The composites with PZT volume fraction ranging from 0.36 to 0.69 were obtained by adjusting initial solid loading in freeze-casting slurry. The effect of poling voltage on piezoelectric properties of the composites was studied for various volume fraction of PZT phase. With the increasing of PZT volume fraction, relative permittivity (ε r ) increased linearly and piezoelectric coefficient ( d 33 and d 31 ) increased step by step. The resultant composites with 0.57 PZT volume fraction possessed the highest hydrostatic piezoelectric strain coefficient ( d h ) value (184 pC/N), voltage coefficient ( g h ) value (13.6 × 10 −3  V/m Pa), and hydrostatic figure of merit (HFOM) value (2168 × 10 −15  Pa −1 ).

Description: Multiphase borosilicate glass-ceramics represent one candidate to contain radioactive nuclear waste separated from used nuclear fuel. In this work, the thermophysical properties from room temperature to 1273 K were investigated for four different borosilicate glass-ceramic compositions containing waste loadings from 42 to 60 wt% to determine the sensitivity of these properties to waste loading, as-fabricated microstructure, and potential evolutions in microstructure brought about by temperature transients. The thermal expansion, specific heat capacity, thermal diffusivity, and thermal conductivity are presented. The impact of increasing waste loading is shown to have a small but measurable effect on the thermophysical properties between the four compositions, contrasted to a much greater impact observed when transitioning from predominantly crystalline to amorphous systems. Thermal cycling below 1273 K was not found to measurably impact the thermophysical properties of the compositions investigated here.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Grazing represents one of the most common disturbances in drylands worldwide, affecting both ecosystem structure and functioning. Despite the efforts to understand the nature and magnitude of grazing effects on ecosystem components and processes, contrasting results continue to arise. This is particularly remarkable for the biological soil crust (BSC) communities (i.e. cyanobacteria, lichens and bryophytes), which play an important role in soil dynamics. Here we evaluated simultaneously the effect of grazing impact on BSC communities (resistance) and recovery after livestock exclusion (resilience) in a semiarid grassland of Central Mexico. In particular, we examined BSC species distribution, species richness, taxonomical group cover (i.e., cyanobacteria, lichen, bryophyte) and composition along a disturbance gradient with different grazing regimes (low, medium, high impact) and along a recovery gradient with differently-aged livestock exclosures (short-, medium-, long-term exclusion). Differences in grazing impact and time of recovery from grazing both resulted in slight changes in species richness; however, there were pronounced shifts in species composition and group cover. We found we could distinguish four highly diverse and dynamic BSC species groups: 1) species with high resistance and resilience to grazing, 2) species with high resistance but low resilience, 3) species with low resistance but high resilience, and 4) species with low resistance and resilience. While disturbance resulted in a novel diversity configuration, which may profoundly affect ecosystem functioning, we observed that 10 years of disturbance removal did not lead to the ecosystem structure found after 27 years of recovery. These findings are an important contribution to our understanding of BCS dynamics from a species and community perspective placed in a land use change context.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. The American pika (Ochotona princeps) has become a species of concern for its sensitivity to warm temperatures and potential vulnerability to global warming. We explored the value of radiocarbon dating of fecal pellets to address questions of population persistence and timing of site extirpation. Carbon was extracted from pellets collected at 43 locations in the western Great Basin, USA, including 3 known occupied sites and 40 sites of uncertain status at range margins or where previous studies indicated the species is vulnerable. We resolved calibrated dates with high precision (within several years), most of which fell in the period of the mid-late 20th century "bomb curve." The two-sided nature of the bomb curve renders "far-" and "near-side" dates of equal probability, which are separated by 1-4 decades. We document methods for narrowing resolution to one age range, including stratigraphic analysis of vegetation collected from pika haypiles. No evidence was found for biases in atmospheric 14C levels due to fossil-derived or industrial CO2 contamination. Radiocarbon dating indicated that pellets can persist for 〉59 years; known-occupied sites resolved contemporary dates. Using combined evidence from field observations and radiocarbon-dating, and the Bodie Mountains (Mtns) as an example, we propose a historical biogeographic scenario for pikas in minor Great Basin mountain ranges adjacent to major cordillera wherein historical climate variability led to cycles of extirpation and re-colonization during alternating cool and warm centuries. Using this model to inform future dynamics for small ranges in biogeographic settings similar to the Bodie Mtns, CA, extirpation of pikas appears highly likely under directional warming trends projected for the next century, even while populations in extensive cordillera (e.g., Sierra Nevada, Rocky Mtns, Cascade Range) are likely to remain viable due to extensive, diverse, habitat and high connectivity.

Description: Reports of abruptly declining flows of Canada's Athabasca River have prompted concern because this large, free-flowing river could be representative for northern North America, provides water for the massive Athabasca oil-sands projects, and flows to the extensive and biodiverse Peace-Athabasca, Slave and Mackenzie River deltas. To investigate historic hydrology along the river and its major tributaries we expanded the time series with interpolations for short data gaps; calculations of annual discharges from early, summer-only records; and by splicing records across sequential hydrometric gauges. These produced composite, century-long records (1913 to 2011) and trend detection with linear Pearson correlation provided similar outcomes to non-parametric Kendall τ−b tests. These revealed that the mountain and foothills reaches displayed slight increases in winter discharges versus larger declines in summer discharges, and consequently declining annual flows (~0.16%/yr at Hinton; p 〈 0.01). Conversely, with contrasting boreal contributions, the Athabasca River at Athabasca displayed no overall trend in monthly or annual flows, but there was correspondence with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) that contributed to a temporary flow decline from 1970 to 2000. These findings from century-long records contrast with interpretations from numerous shorter-term studies, and emphasize the need for sufficient time series for hydrologic trend analyses. For Northern Hemisphere rivers, the study interval should be at least 80 years to span two PDO cycles and dampen the influence from phase transitions. Most prior trend analyses considered only a few decades and this weakens interpretations of the hydrologic consequences of climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Studies of predator-prey demographic responses and the physical drivers of such relationships are rare, yet essential for predicting future changes in the structure and dynamics of marine ecosystems. Here, we hypothesize that predator-prey relationships vary spatially in association with underlying physical ocean conditions, leading to observable changes in demographic rates, such as reproduction. To test this hypothesis, we quantified spatio-temporal variability in hydrographic conditions, krill, and forage fish to model predator (seabird) demographic responses over 18 years (1990-2007). We used principal component analysis and spatial correlation maps to assess coherence among ocean conditions, krill, and forage fish, and generalized additive models to quantify interannual variability in seabird breeding success relative to prey abundance. The first principal component of 4 hydrographic measurements yielded an index that partitioned "weak/warm upwelling" and "strong/cool upwelling" years. Partitioning of krill and forage fish time series among shelf and oceanic regions yielded spatially-explicit indicators of prey availability. Krill abundance within the oceanic region was remarkably consistent between years, whereas krill over the shelf showed marked interannual fluctuations in relation to ocean conditions. Anchovy abundance varied on the shelf, and was greater in years of strong stratification/weak upwelling and warmer temperatures. Spatio-temporal variability of juvenile forage fish covaried strongly with each other and with krill, but was weakly correlated with hydrographic conditions. Demographic responses between seabirds and prey availability revealed spatially-variable associations indicative of the dynamic nature of habitat-prey relationships. Quantification of spatially-explicit demographic responses, and their variability through time, demonstrates the possibility of delineating specific critical areas where the implementation of protective measures could maintain functions and productivity of central place foraging predators.

Description: Recent studies have suggested that the hydrologic connectivity of northern headwater catchments is likely controlled by antecedent moisture conditions and land cover patterns. A water storage model ( EWS ), based on water levels ( WLs ), specific yield ( Sy ) and surface elevation ( SE ) changes was compared to a basic water budget of a small, boreal, patterned fen (13 ha) during the ice-free period. Results showed that the EWS model reproduced well storage variations derived from the water budget. These results suggest that storage variations can be properly represented by the fluctuations of WLs when we consider the heterogeneous soil properties. However, storage deviations occurred at the daily scale and could be explained by a lack of information on water retention in unsaturated layers, canopy interceptions and preferential flows. Despite the significant impact of SE changes on the different peatland cover storage budgets (strings and lawns), using Sy mean values had low impact on storage estimations. This can be explained by the large proportion of pools and high WLs throughout the fen. At the fen scale, high storage in the pools seemed to reduce the Sy difference between strings and lawns. The results of this study provide new insights about the complex hydrological behaviour of northern catchments and allow for conceiving new hydrological modeling perspectives. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: We report a novel oscillatory pressure-assisted hot-pressing process for preparing high-quality ceramics. Compared with the samples prepared by conventional pressureless sintering (PS) and hot-pressing (HP), the zirconia ceramic prepared by oscillatory pressure-assisted hot-pressing (OPAHP) exhibited a higher density, smaller grain size, and more homogeneous structure. More remarkably, the strength of the OPAHP sample reached 1556 MPa, which is much higher than the samples prepared by other two techniques. The results suggest that OPAHP is a more effective technique for preparing high-quality zirconia, which is likely applicable to other material systems.

Description: The formation of a homogeneous Bi 8 TiO 14 phase was successfully achieved in a specimen calcined at 600°C. However, a Bi 4 Ti 3 O 12 secondary phase also developed in specimens calcined at temperatures higher than 600°C, probably because of Bi 2 O 3 evaporation. For specimens sintered above 800°C, a small amount of the Bi 8 TiO 14 phase melted during sintering, with the liquid phase contributing to the densification of the specimens; however, Bi 4 Ti 3 O 12 and Bi 12 TiO 20 secondary phases were still formed in these specimens. The microwave dielectric properties of the Bi 8 TiO 14 phase were considerably affected by variations in the microstructure of the specimens. When the sintering temperature exceeded 825°C, the amount of secondary phases increased, and this decreased the density and Q×f values of the specimens. Bi 8 TiO 14 ceramics sintered at 825°C exhibited promising microwave dielectric properties, with ε r = 47.4, Q×f  =   5370 GHz, and τ f = −16.01 ppm/°C.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Translocation experiments, in which researchers displace animals then monitor their movements to return home, are commonly used as tools to assess functional connectivity of fragmented landscapes. Such experiments are purported to have important advantages of being time efficient and standardizing 'motivation' to move across individuals. Yet, we lack tests of whether movement behavior of translocated birds reflects natural behavior of unmanipulated birds. We compared the routine movement behavior of a tropical hummingbird (Phaethornis guy) to that of experimentally translocated individuals. We tested for differences in site-selection patterns during movement at two spatial scales (point and path levels). We also compared movement rates between treatments. Behaviors documented during translocation experiments reflected those observed during routine movements. At the point level, both translocated and non-translocated birds showed similar levels of preference for mature tropical forest. At the path level, step selection functions showed both translocated and non-translocated hummingbirds avoiding movement across non-forested matrix and selecting streams as movement corridors. Movement rates were generally higher during translocation experiments. However, the negative influence of forest cover on movement rates was proportionately similar in translocation and routine movement treatments. We report the first evidence showing that movement behavior of birds during translocation experiments is similar to their natural movement behavior. Therefore, translocation experiments may be reliable tools to address effects of landscape structure on animal movement. We observed consistent selection of landscape elements between translocated and non-translocated birds, indicating that both routine and translocation movement studies lead to similar conclusions regarding the effect of landscape structure and forest composition on functional connectivity. Our observations that hummingbirds avoid non-forest matrix and select riparian corridors also provides a potential mechanism for pollen limitation in fragmented tropical forest.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Climate change vulnerability assessments for species of conservation concern often use species distribution and ecological niche modeling to project changes in habitat. One of many assumptions of these approaches is that food web dependencies are consistent in time and environmental space. Species at higher trophic levels that rely on the availability of species at lower trophic levels as food may be sensitive to extinction cascades initiated by changes in the habitat of key food resources. Here we assess climate change vulnerability for Ursus arctos (grizzly bears) in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains using projected changes to 17 of the most commonly consumed plant food items. We used presence-absence information from 7,088 field plots to estimate ecological niches and to project changes in future distributions of each species. Model projections indicated idiosyncratic responses among food items. Many food items persisted or even increased, although several species were found to be vulnerable based on declines or geographic shifts in suitable habitat. This included Hedysarum alpinum (alpine sweet vetch), a critical spring and autumn root-digging resource when little else is available. Potential habitat loss was also identified for three fruiting species of lower importance to bears: Empetrum nigrum (crowberry), Vaccinium scoparium (grouseberry) and Fragaria virginiana (strawberry). A general trend towards uphill migration of bear foods may result in higher vulnerability to bear populations at low elevations which are also those that are most likely to have human-bear conflict problems. Regardless, a wide diet breadth of grizzly bears, as well as wide environmental niches of most food items, make climate change a much lower threat to grizzly bears than other bear species such as polar bears and panda bears. We cannot exclude, however, future alterations in human behavior and land use resulting from climate change that may reduce survival rates.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Efforts to test and improve terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) using a variety of data sources have become increasingly common. However, geographically extensive forest inventories have been under-exploited in previous model-data fusion efforts. Inventory observations of forest growth, mortality, and biomass integrate processes across a range of time scales, including slow time-scale processes such as species turnover, that are likely to have important effects on ecosystem responses to environmental variation. However, the large number (thousands) of inventory plots precludes detailed measurements at each location, so that uncertainty in climate, soil properties, and other environmental drivers may be large. Errors in driver variables, if ignored, introduce bias into model-data fusion. We estimated errors in climate and soil drivers at U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots, and we explored the effects of these errors on model-data fusion with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory LM3V dynamic global vegetation model. When driver errors were ignored or assumed small at FIA plots, responses of biomass production in LM3V to precipitation and soil available water capacity appeared steeper than the corresponding responses estimated from FIA data. These differences became non-significant if driver errors at FIA plots were assumed large. Ignoring driver errors when optimizing LM3V parameter values yielded estimates for fine-root allocation that were larger than biometric estimates, which is consistent with the expected direction of bias. To explore if complications posed by driver errors could be circumvented by relying on intensive study sites where driver errors are small, we performed a power analysis. To accurately quantify the response of biomass production to spatial variation in mean annual precipitation within the eastern U.S. would require at least 40 intensive study sites, which is larger than the number of sites typically available for individual biomes in existing plot networks. Driver errors may be accommodated by several existing model-data fusion approaches, including hierarchical Bayesian methods and ensemble filtering methods; however, these methods are computationally expensive. We propose a new approach, in which the TBM functional response is fit directly to the driver-error-corrected functional response estimated from data, rather than to the raw observations.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Despite intensive monitoring, temporary emigration from the sampling area can induce bias severe enough for managers to discard life-history parameter estimates toward the terminus of the times series (terminal bias). Under random temporary emigration unbiased parameters can be estimated with CJS models. However, unmodeled Markovian temporary emigration causes bias in parameter estimates and an unobservable state is required to model this type of emigration. The robust design is most flexible when modeling temporary emigration, and partial solutions to mitigate bias have been identified, nonetheless there are conditions were terminal bias prevails. Long-lived species with high adult survival and highly variable non-random temporary emigration present terminal bias in survival estimates, despite being modeled with the robust design and suggested constraints. Because this bias is due to uncertainty about the fate of individuals that are undetected toward the end of the time series, solutions should involve using additional information on survival status or location of these individuals at that time. Using simulation, we evaluated the performance of models that jointly analyze robust design data and an additional source of ancillary data (predictive covariate on temporary emigration, telemetry, dead recovery, or auxiliary resightings) in reducing terminal bias in survival estimates. The auxiliary resighting and predictive covariate models reduced terminal bias the most. Additional telemetry data was effective at reducing terminal bias only when individuals were tracked for a minimum of two years. High adult survival of long-lived species made the joint model with recovery data ineffective at reducing terminal bias because of small-sample bias. The naïve constraint model (last and penultimate temporary emigration parameters made equal), was the least efficient, though still able to reduce terminal bias when compared to an unconstrained model. Joint analysis of several sources of data improved parameter estimates and reduced terminal bias. Efforts to incorporate or acquire such data should be considered by researchers and wildlife managers, especially in the years leading up to status assessments of species of interest. Simulation modeling is a very cost effective method to explore the potential impacts of using different sources of data to produce high quality demographic data to inform management.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Warmer and drier climate over the past few decades has brought larger fire sizes and increased annual area burned in forested ecosystems of western North America, and continued increases in annual area burned are expected due to climate change. As warming continues, fires may also increase in severity and produce larger contiguous patches of high severity. We use remotely sensed burn-severity data from 125 fires in the northern Cascade Range of Washington, USA, to explore relationships between fire size, severity, and the spatial pattern of severity. We examine relationships between climate and the annual area burned and the size of wildfires over a 25-year period. We test the hypothesis that increased fire size is commensurate with increased burn severity and increased spatial aggregation of high severity. We also ask how local ecological controls might modulate these relationships by comparing results over the whole study area (the northern Cascade Range) to those from four ecological subsections within it. We found significant positive relationships between climate and fire size, and between fire size and the proportion of high severity and spatial-pattern metrics that quantify the spatial aggregation of high-severity areas within fires, but the strength and significance of these relationships varied among the four subsections. In areas with more contiguous subalpine forests and less complex topography, the proportion of high severity and spatial aggregation of high severity were more strongly correlated with fire size. If fire sizes increase in a warming climate, changes in the extent, severity, and spatial pattern of fire regimes will likely be more pronounced in higher-severity fire regimes with less complex topography and more continuous fuels.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremonti, Eckenwal.) is a foundation riparian tree species that drives community structure and ecosystem processes in southwestern U.S. ecosystems. Despite its ecological importance, little is known about the ecological and environmental processes that shape its genetic diversity, structure and landscape connectivity. Here, we combine molecular analyses of 82 populations including 1,312 individual trees dispersed over the species' geographical distribution. We reduced the dataset to 40 populations and 743 individuals to eliminate admixture with a sibling species, and used multi-variate restricted optimization and reciprocal causal modeling, to evaluate the effects of river network connectivity and climatic gradients on gene flow. Our results confirmed the following: First, gene flow of Fremont cottonwood is jointly controlled by the connectivity of the river network and gradients of seasonal precipitation. Second, gene flow is facilitated by mid-sized to large rivers, and is resisted by small streams and terrestrial uplands, with resistance to gene flow decreasing with river size. Third, genetic differentiation increases with cumulative differences in winter and spring precipitation. Our results, suggest that ongoing fragmentation of riparian habitats will lead to a loss of landscape level genetic connectivity, leading to increased inbreeding and the concomitant loss of genetic diversity in a foundation species. These genetic effects will cascade to a much larger community of organisms, some of which are threatened and endangered.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Identifying determinants of the probability and intensity of infections is important for understanding the epidemiology of wildlife diseases, and for managing their impact on threatened species. Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, has decimated populations of some amphibians. However, recent studies have identified important environmental constraints on the disease, related to the pathogen's physiological tolerances. In this study, we identified several intrinsic and extrinsic determinants of the probability and intensity of chytrid infections for the threatened Growling Grass Frog (Litoria raniformis) in south-eastern Australia, and used mark-recapture to estimate the effect of chytrid infections on the probability of survival of these frogs. Water temperature and salinity had negative effects on both the probability and intensity of chytrid infections. We coupled models of the infection process with a model of the effect of chytrid infections on the probability of survival to assess variation in the impact of chytridiomycosis between wetlands with differing temperature and salinity profiles. Our results suggest that warm, saline wetlands may be refuges from chytridiomycosis for L. raniformis, and should be priorities for protection. Our results also suggest that management actions that increase water temperature (e.g. reducing canopy shading) and salinity (e.g. complementing inflows with groundwater) could be trialled to reduce the impacts of chytridiomycosis on this species. This and other recent studies highlight the value of research on environmental risk factors for chytridiomycosis.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Terrestrial soil is a large reservoir of atmospherically deposited mercury (Hg). However, few studies have evaluated the accumulation of Hg in terrestrial ecosystems in the northeastern United States, a region which is sensitive to atmospheric Hg deposition. In this study, we characterize Hg and organic matter in soil profiles from 139 sampling sites for five sub-regions across the northeastern United States, and estimate atmospheric Hg deposition to these sites by combining numerical modeling with experimental data from the literature. We did not observe any significant relationships between current net atmospheric Hg deposition and soil Hg concentrations or pools, even though soils are a net sink for Hg inputs. Soil Hg appears to be preserved relative to organic carbon (OC) and/or nitrogen (N) in the soil matrix, as a significant negative relationship was observed between the ratios of Hg/OC and OC/N (r = 0.54, p 〈 0.0001) that shapes the horizonal distribution patterns. We estimated that atmospheric Hg deposition since 1850 (3.97 mg m-2) accounts for 102% of the Hg pool in the organic horizons (3.88 mg m-2) and 19% of the total soil Hg pool (21.32 mg m-2), except for the Southern New England (SNE) sub-region. The mean residence time for soil Hg was estimated to be 1,800 years, except SNE which was 800 years. These patterns suggest that in additional to atmospheric deposition, the accumulation of soil Hg is linked to the mineral diagenetic and soil development processes in the region.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Predicting how climate change is likely to interact with myriad other stressors that threaten species of conservation concern is an essential challenge in aquatic ecosystems. This study provides a framework to accomplish this task in salmon-bearing streams of the northwestern United States, where land-use related reductions in riparian shading have caused changes in stream thermal regimes, and additional warming from projected climate change may result in significant losses of coldwater fish habitat over the next century. Predatory non-native smallmouth bass have also been introduced into many northwestern streams and their range is likely to expand as streams warm, presenting an additional challenge to the persistence of threatened Pacific salmon. The goal of this work was to forecast the interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and non-native species on stream-rearing salmon, and to evaluate the capacity of restoration to mitigate these effects. We intersected downscaled global climate forecasts with a local-scale water temperature model to predict mid- and end-of-century temperatures in streams in the Columbia River basin; we compared one stream that is thermally impaired due to the loss of riparian vegetation and another that is cooler and has a largely intact riparian corridor. Using the forecasted stream temperatures in conjunction with fish-habitat models, we predicted how stream-rearing Chinook salmon and bass distributions would change as each stream warmed. In the highly modified stream, end-of-century warming may cause near total loss of Chinook salmon rearing habitat and a complete invasion of the upper watershed by bass. In the less modified stream, bass were thermally restricted from the upstream-most areas. In both systems, temperature increases resulted in higher predicted spatial overlap between stream-rearing Chinook salmon and potentially predatory bass in the early summer (2-4-fold increase) and greater abundance of bass. We found that riparian restoration could prevent the extirpation of Chinook salmon from the more altered stream, and could also restrict bass from occupying the upper 31 km of salmon rearing habitat. The proposed methodology and model predictions are critical for prioritizing climate-change adaptation strategies before salmonids are exposed to both warmer water and greater predation risk by non-native species.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 24, Issue 3, Page 528-538, April 2014. A unique high temporal frequency data set from an irrigated cotton–wheat rotation was used to test the agroecosystem model DayCent to simulate daily N2O emissions from subtropical vertisols under different irrigation intensities. DayCent was able to simulate the effect of different irrigation intensities on N2O fluxes and yield, although it tended to overestimate seasonal fluxes during the cotton season. DayCent accurately predicted soil moisture dynamics and the timing and magnitude of high fluxes associated with fertilizer additions and irrigation events. At the daily scale we found a good correlation of predicted vs. measured N2O fluxes (r2 = 0.52), confirming that DayCent can be used to test agricultural practices for mitigating N2O emission from irrigated cropping systems. A 25-year scenario analysis indicated that N2O losses from irrigated cotton–wheat rotations on black vertisols in Australia can be substantially reduced by an optimized fertilizer and irrigation management system (i.e., frequent irrigation, avoidance of excessive fertilizer application), while sustaining maximum yield potentials.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Grazing represents one of the most common disturbances in drylands worldwide, affecting both ecosystem structure and functioning. Despite the efforts to understand the nature and magnitude of grazing effects on ecosystem components and processes, contrasting results continue to arise. This is particularly remarkable for the biological soil crust (BSC) communities (i.e. cyanobacteria, lichens and bryophytes), which play an important role in soil dynamics. Here we evaluated simultaneously the effect of grazing impact on BSC communities (resistance) and recovery after livestock exclusion (resilience) in a semiarid grassland of Central Mexico. In particular, we examined BSC species distribution, species richness, taxonomical group cover (i.e., cyanobacteria, lichen, bryophyte) and composition along a disturbance gradient with different grazing regimes (low, medium, high impact) and along a recovery gradient with differently-aged livestock exclosures (short-, medium-, long-term exclusion). Differences in grazing impact and time of recovery from grazing both resulted in slight changes in species richness; however, there were pronounced shifts in species composition and group cover. We found we could distinguish four highly diverse and dynamic BSC species groups: 1) species with high resistance and resilience to grazing, 2) species with high resistance but low resilience, 3) species with low resistance but high resilience, and 4) species with low resistance and resilience. While disturbance resulted in a novel diversity configuration, which may profoundly affect ecosystem functioning, we observed that 10 years of disturbance removal did not lead to the ecosystem structure found after 27 years of recovery. These findings are an important contribution to our understanding of BCS dynamics from a species and community perspective placed in a land use change context.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multi-species forest of Arizona, U.S.A. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) predictions of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon stock. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon stock relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no-treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S. forest management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate and management actions. Managers should incorporate climate change into the process of analyzing the environmental effects of alternative actions.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Digital repeat photography is becoming widely used for near surface remote sensing of vegetation. Canopy greenness, which has been used extensively for phenological applications, can be readily quantified from camera images. Important questions remain, however, as to whether the observed changes in canopy greenness are directly related to changes in leaf-level traits, changes in canopy structure, or some combination thereof. We investigated relationships between canopy greenness and various metrics of canopy structure and function, using five years (2008-2012) of automated digital imagery, ground observations of phenological transitions, leaf area index (LAI) measurements, and eddy-covariance estimates of gross ecosystem photosynthesis from the Harvard Forest, a temperate deciduous forest in the northeastern USA. Additionally, we sampled canopy sunlit leaves on a weekly basis throughout the growing season of 2011. We measured physiological and morphological traits including leaf size, mass (wet/dry), nitrogen content, chlorophyll fluorescence, and spectral reflectance, and characterized individual leaf color with flatbed scanner imagery. Our results show that observed spring and autumn phenological transition dates are well captured by information extracted from digital repeat photography. However, spring development of both LAI and the measured physiological and morphological traits are shown to lag behind spring increases in canopy greenness, which rises very quickly to its maximum value before leaves are even half their final size. Based on the hypothesis that changes in canopy greenness represent the aggregate effect of changes in both leaf-level properties (specifically, leaf color) and changes in canopy structure (specifically, LAI), we developed a two end-member mixing model. With just a single free parameter, the model was able to reproduce the observed seasonal trajectory of canopy greenness. This analysis shows that canopy greenness is relatively insensitive to changes in LAI at high LAI levels, which we further demonstrate by assessing the impact of an ice-storm on both LAI and canopy greenness. Our study provides new insights into the mechanisms driving seasonal changes in canopy greenness retrieved from digital camera imagery. The nonlinear relationship between canopy greenness and canopy LAI has important implications both for phenological research applications and for assessing responses of vegetation to disturbances.

Description: Minor changes to seasonal air temperature and precipitation can have a substantial impact on the availability of water resources within large watersheds. Two such watersheds, the north-flowing Mackenzie and east-flowing Saskatchewan Basins have been identified as highly vulnerable to such changes, and, therefore, selected for study as part of the Climatic Redistribution of western Canadian Water Resources (CROCWR) project. CROCWR aims to evaluate spatial and temporal changes to water resource distribution through the analysis of a suite of hydroclimatic and streamflow variables. As part of this analysis, dominant summer (May-Oct) circulation patterns at 500-hPa for 1950-2011 are identified using the method of Self-Organizing Maps (SOM). Surface climate variables associated with these patterns are then identified, including both daily air temperature and precipitation, and seasonal Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values. Statistical methods are applied to assess the relationships between dominant circulation patterns and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Results indicate that mid-summer (Jul-Aug) is dominated by a split-flow blocking pattern, resulting in cool (warm), wet (dry) conditions in the southern (northern) portion of the study area. By contrast, the shoulder season (May and Oct) is dominated by a trough of low-pressure over the North Pacific Ocean. The frequency of weak split-flow blocking is higher during positive SOI and negative PDO, while ridging over the western continent is more frequent during negative SOI and positive PDO. Results from this analysis increase our knowledge of processes controlling the distribution of summer water resources in western Canada. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: A new solid solution of (1− x ) Pb ( Mg 1/2 W 1/2 ) O 3 – x Pb ( Zn 1/2 W 1/2 )O 3 has been prepared in the form of ceramics by solid-state reaction with composition x up to 30%. It is found that with the substitution of Zn 2+ for Mg 2+ on the B site of the of complex perovskite structure the antiferroelectric (AFE) Curie temperature T C of PMW increases from 40°C ( x  = 0) to 67°C ( x  = 30%), indicating an enhancement of antiferroelectric order, whereas, at the same time, the phase transition becomes more diffuse due to a higher degree of chemical inhomogeneity. X-ray diffraction analysis indicates that the crystal structure adopts an orthorhombic space group ( Pmcn ) with a decrease in lattice parameter a, but an increase in b and c as the Zn 2+ concentration increases. The low dielectric constant (~ 10 2 ), low dielectric loss (tanδ ≈ 10 −3 ), linear-field-induced polarization, and significantly high breakdown field (~ 125 kV/cm) at room temperature make this family of dielectric materials a promising candidate for ceramic insulators.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. The degree to which recent bark beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks may influence fire severity and post-fire tree regeneration is of heightened interest to resource managers throughout western North America, but empirical data on actual fire effects are lacking. Outcomes may depend on burning conditions (i.e., weather during fire), outbreak severity, or intervals between outbreaks and subsequent fire. We studied recent fires that burned through green-attack / red-stage (outbreaks 〈 3 yr before fire) and gray-stage (outbreaks 3-15 yr before fire) subalpine forests dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) in Greater Yellowstone, Wyoming, USA, to determine if fire severity was linked to pre-fire beetle outbreak severity and whether these two disturbances produced compound ecological effects on post-fire tree regeneration. With field data from 143 post-fire plots that burned under different conditions, we assessed canopy and surface fire-severity, and post-fire tree seedling density against pre-fire outbreak severity. In the green-attack / red stage, several canopy fire-severity measures increased with pre-fire outbreak severity under moderate burning conditions. Under extreme conditions, few fire-severity measures were related to pre-fire outbreak severity, and effect sizes were of marginal biological significance. The percentage of tree stems and basal area killed by fire increased with more green-attack vs. red-stage trees (i.e., the earliest stages of outbreak). In the gray stage, by contrast, most fire-severity measures declined with increasing outbreak severity under moderate conditions, and fire severity was unrelated to outbreak severity under extreme burning conditions. Post-fire lodgepole pine seedling regeneration was unrelated to pre-fire outbreak severity in either post-outbreak stage, but increased with pre-fire serotiny. Results suggest bark beetle outbreaks can affect fire severity in subalpine forests under moderate burning conditions, but have little effect on fire severity under extreme burning conditions when most large wildfires occur in this system. Thus, beetle outbreak severity was moderately linked to fire severity, but the strength and direction of the linkage depended on both endogenous (outbreak stage) and exogenous (fire weather) factors. Closely-timed beetle outbreak and fire did not impart compound effects on tree regeneration, suggesting the presence of a canopy seedbank may enhance resilience to their combined effects.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Ecological reserves provide important wildlife habitat in many landscapes, and the functional connectivity of reserves and other suitable habitat patches is crucial for the persistence and resilience of spatially structured populations. To maintain or increase connectivity at spatial scales larger than individual patches, conservation actions may focus on creating and maintaining reserves and/or influencing management on non-reserves. Using a graph-theoretic approach, we assessed the functional connectivity and spatial distribution of wetlands in the Rainwater Basin of Nebraska, U.S.A., an intensively cultivated agricultural matrix, at four assumed, but ecologically realistic, anuran dispersal distances. We compared connectivity in the current landscape to the historical landscape and putative future landscapes, and evaluated the importance of individual and aggregated reserve and non-reserve wetlands for maintaining connectivity. Connectivity was greatest in the historical landscape, where wetlands were also the most densely distributed. The construction of irrigation reuse pits for water storage has maintained connectivity in the current landscape by replacing destroyed wetlands, but these pits likely provide suboptimal habitat. Also, because there are fewer total wetlands (i.e., wetlands and irrigation reuse pits) in the current landscape than the historical landscape, and because the distribution of current wetlands is less clustered than that of historical wetlands, larger and longer-dispersing, sometimes non-native species may be favored over smaller, shorter-dispersing species of conservation concern. Because of their relatively low number, wetland reserves do not affect connectivity as greatly as non-reserve wetlands or irrigation reuse pits; however, they likely provide the highest-quality anuran habitat. To improve future levels of resilience in this wetland habitat network, management could focus on continuing to improve the conservation status of non-reserve wetlands, restoring wetlands at spatial scales that promote movements of shorter-dispersing species, and further scrutinizing irrigation reuse pit removal by considering effects on functional connectivity for anurans, an emblematic and threatened group of organisms. However, broader conservation plans will need to give consideration to other wetland-dependent species, incorporate invasive species management, and address additional challenges arising from global change in social-ecological systems like the Rainwater Basin.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Ecosystem-based management of natural resources involves an explicit consideration of trade-offs among ecosystem services. In marine fisheries, there is the potential for a trade-off between the supporting role of small pelagic fish and cephalopods in food webs, and the provisioning service they play as a major target of fisheries. Because these species play central roles in food webs by providing a conduit of energy from small prey to upper trophic level predators, we hypothesized that trade-offs between these two ecosystem services could be predicted based on energetic properties of predator-prey linkages and food web structure. We compiled information from 27 marine food web models (Ecopath) that included either small pelagic fish or cephalopods, described predator-prey linkages involving these species, and developed a novel analytical framework to estimate how changes in yields of forage species would propagate through food webs and other fisheries. Consistent with expectations, diet overlap between predators and prey was generally low, and predator prey linkages tended to be asymmetric; contribution of these species to predator diets was, on average, larger than the contribution of individual predator stocks to prey mortality. The estimated trade-offs between yields of forage fish and predator species were highly variable when we assumed joint bottom-up and top-down control on predation. Roughly one-third of this variance was related to an interactive effect of fishing and predation intensity; strong trade-offs were predicted when fishing intensity on forage species is high and when predators account for a high proportion of total forage mortality. When trophic connections were presumed to be driven by bottom-up processes, trade-offs were more predictable but generally very small. Contrary to our expectations, trade-offs were not easily predicted from energetic properties, largely because predators of forage species exhibited a high degree of intra-guild predation and also consumed many of the same prey as forage species. Given the limited ability to a priori predict the food web implications of forage fisheries, we suggest that a precautionary risk-based approach be applied to decisions about acceptable biological removals of forage fish and biological targets used for their management.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially-explicit, individual-based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement -- a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers -- might influence demogenetic connectivity and hence population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and also genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then apply this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, de-watering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss of genetic diversity and reduced sizes in certain vulnerable population. This demogenetic simulation framework, which is illustrated in a web-based interactive mapping prototype (http://ptolemy.dbs.umt.edu/pvm/), should be useful for evaluating population vulnerability in a wide variety of dendritic and fragmented riverscapes, helping to guide conservation and management efforts for freshwater species.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Fire regimes of the Canadian boreal forest are driven by certain environmental factors that are highly variable from year to year (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and others that are relatively stable (e.g., land cover, topography). Studies examining the relative influence of these environmental drivers on fire activity suggest that models making explicit use of inter-annual variability appear to better capture years of climate extremes, whereas those using a temporal average of all available years highlight the importance of land-cover variables. It has been suggested that fire models built at different temporal resolutions may provide a complementary understanding of controls on fire regimes, but this claim has not been tested explicitly with parallel data and modelling approaches. We addressed this issue by building two models of area burned for the period 1980-2010 using 14 explanatory variables to describe ignitions, vegetation, climate, and topography. We built one model at an annual resolution, with climate and some land-cover variables being updated annually, and the other model using 31-year fire "climatology" based on averaged variables. Despite substantial differences in the variables' contributions to the two models, their predictions were broadly similar, which suggests coherence between the spatial patterns of annually varying climate extremes and long-term climate normals. Where the models' predictions diverged, discrepancies between the annual and averaged models could be attributed to specific explanatory variables. For instance, annually updating land cover allowed us to identify a possible negative feedback between flammable biomass and fire activity. These results show that building models at more than one temporal resolution affords a deeper understanding of controls on fire activity in boreal Canada than can be achieved by examining a single model. However, in terms of spatial predictions, the additional effort required to build annual models of fire activity may not always be warranted in this study area. From a management and policy standpoint, this key finding should boost confidence in models that incorporate climatic normals, thereby providing a stronger foundation on which to make decisions on adaptation and mitigation strategies for future fire activity.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Fire is becoming a pervasive driver of environmental change in Amazonia and is expected to intensify, given projected reductions in precipitation and forest cover. Understanding of the influence of post-deforestation land cover change on fires in Amazonia is limited, even though fires in cleared lands constitute a threat for ecosystems, agriculture, and human health. We used MODIS satellite data to map burned areas annually between 2001 and 2010. We then combined these maps with land cover and climate information to understand the influence of land cover change in cleared lands and dry season severity on fire occurrence and spread in a focus area in the Peruvian Amazon. Fire occurrence, quantified as the probability of burning of individual 232m spatial resolution MODIS pixels was modeled as a function of the area of land cover types within each pixel, drought severity, and distance to roads. Fire spread, quantified as the number of pixels burned in 3x3 pixel windows around each focal burned pixel, was modeled as a function of land cover configuration and area, dry season severity, and distance to roads. We found that vegetation regrowth and oil palm expansion are significantly correlated with fire occurrence but that the magnitude and sign of the correlation depend on drought severity, successional stage of regrowing vegetation and oil palm age. Burning probability increased with the area of non-degraded pastures, fallow, and young oil palm and decreased with larger extents of degraded pastures, secondary forests and adult oil palm plantations. Drought severity had the strongest influence on fire occurrence overriding the effectiveness of secondary forests but not of adult plantations to reduce fire occurrence in severely dry years. Overall, irregular and scattered land cover patches reduced fire spread but irregular and dispersed fallows and secondary forests increased fire spread during dry years. Results underscore the importance of land cover management for reducing fire proliferation in this landscape. Incentives for promoting natural regeneration and perennial crops in cleared lands might help reduce fire risk if those areas are protected against burning in early stages of development and during severely dry years.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Intraguild predators both feed on and compete with their intraguild prey. In theory, intraguild predators can therefore be very effective as biological control agents of intraguild prey species, especially in productive environments. We investigated this hypothesis using the mixotrophic chrysophyte Ochromonas as intraguild predator and the harmful cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa as its prey. Ochromonas can grow photoautotrophically, but can also graze efficiently on Microcystis. Hence, it competes with its prey for inorganic resources. We developed a mathematical model and parameterized it for our experimental food web. The model predicts dominance of Microcystis at low nutrient loads, coexistence of both species at intermediate nutrient loads, and dominance of Ochromonas but a strong decrease of Microcystis with further nutrient enrichment. We tested these theoretical predictions in chemostat experiments supplied with three different nitrogen concentrations. Ochromonas initially suppressed the Microcystis abundance by 〉 97% compared to the Microcystis monocultures. Thereafter, however, Microcystis gradually recovered to ~20% of its monoculture abundance at low nitrogen loads, but to 50-60% at high nitrogen loads. Hence, Ochromonas largely lost control over the Microcystis population at high nitrogen loads. We explored several mechanisms that might explain this deviation from theoretical predictions, and found that intraspecific interference at high Ochromonas densities reduced their grazing rates on Microcystis. These results illustrate the potential of intraguild predation to control pest species, but also show that the effectiveness of their biological control can be reduced in productive environments.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. A novel strategy for suppressing disease transmission by Aedes aegypti, the main vector of dengue, uses releases of mosquitoes infected with the bacterium Wolbachia pipientis. Wolbachia are currently released to interfere with viral transmission, but there is also potential to use strains in mosquito suppression and elimination programs via the deleterious effects of the bacterium on the host. Mosquito suppression depends on target areas being relatively isolated to prevent reinvasion and on local climatic conditions. Here we explored the opportunity for suppression of Ae. aegypti in central Queensland, Australia, by using microsatellite data and simulations based on CIMSiM models of local weather conditions and breeding container data. Our results indicate that Wolbachia-induced extinctions in central Queensland are possible, although they may eventually be compromised by ongoing mosquito migration between towns until these sources are also suppressed. The results highlight a novel use of deleterious Wolbachia infections to achieve ecological as well as disease-related endpoints.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. The decreasing abundance of mature forests and their fragmentation have been identified as major threats for the preservation of biodiversity in managed landscapes. In this study, we developed a multi-level framework to coordinate forest harvestings so as to optimize the retention or restoration of large mature forest tracts in managed forests. We used mixed-integer programming for this optimization, and integrated realistic management assumptions regarding stand yields and operational harvest constraints. The model was parameterized for eastern Canadian boreal forests, where clearcutting is the main silvicultural system, and used to examine two hypotheses. First, we tested if mature forest tract targets had more negative impacts on wood supplies when implemented in landscapes that are very different from targeted conditions. Second, we tested the hypothesis that using more partial cuts can be useful to attenuate the negative impacts of mature forest targets on wood supplies. The results indicate that without the integration of an explicit mature forest tract target, forest management strategies lead to relatively high fragmentation levels. Forcing the retention or restoration of large mature forest tracts on 40% of the landscapes had negative impacts on wood supplies in all types of landscapes, but these impacts were less important in landscapes that were initially fragmented. This counter-intuitive result is explained by the presence in the models of an operational constraint that forbids diffuse patterns of harvestings, which are more costly. Once this constraint is applied, the residual impact of the mature forest tract target is low. The results also indicate that partial cuts are of very limited use to attenuate the impacts of mature forest tract targets on wood supplies in highly fragmented landscapes. Partial cuts are somewhat more useful in landscapes that are less fragmented, but they have to be well coordinated with clearcut schedules in order to contribute efficiently to conservation objectives. This modelling framework could easily be adapted and parameterized to test hypotheses or to optimize restoration schedules in landscapes where issues such as forest fragmentation and the abundance of mature or old-growth forests are a concern.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Cellulose δ18O and δD can provide insights on climates and hydrological cycling in the distant past and how these factors differ spatially. However, most studies of plant cellulose have used only one isotope, most commonly δ18O, resulting in difficulties partitioning variation in δ18O of precipitation versus evaporative conditions that affect leaf water isotopic enrichment. Moreover, observations of pronounced diurnal differences from conventional steady-state model predictions of leaf water isotopic fractionation have cast some doubt on single isotope modeling approaches for separating precipitation and evaporation drivers of cellulose δ18O or δD. We explore a dual isotope approach akin to the concept of deuterium-excess (d), to establish deuterium deviations from the global meteoric water line in leaf water (Δdl) as driven by relative humidity (RH). To demonstrate this concept, we survey studies of leaf water δ18O and δD in hardwood versus conifer trees. We then apply the concept to cellulose δ18O and δD using a mechanistic model of cellulose δ18O and δD to reconstruct deuterium deviations from the global meteoric water line (Δdc) in Quercus macrocarpa, Q. robur and Pseudotsuga menziesii. For each species Δdc showed strong correlations with RH across sites. Δdc agreed well with steady state predictions for Q. macrocarpa while for Q. robur the relationship with RH was steeper than expected. The slope of Δdc versus RH of P. menziesii was also close to steady state predictions, but Δdc were more enriched than predicted. This is in agreement with our leaf water survey showing conifer Δdl was more enriched than predicted. Our data reveal that applications of this method should be appropriate for reconstructing RH from cellulose δ18O and δD after accounting for differences between hardwoods and conifers. Hence, Δdc should be useful for understanding variability in RH associated with past climatic cycles, across regional climates, or across complex terrain where climate modeling is challenging. Furthermore, Δdc and inferred RH values should help in constraining variation in source water δ18O.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. The size, shape, and connectivity of water bodies (lakes, ponds, and wetlands) can have important effects on ecological communities and ecosystem processes, but how these characteristics are influenced by land use and land cover change over broad spatial scales is not known. Intensive alteration of water bodies during urban development, including construction, burial, drainage, and reshaping, may select for certain morphometric characteristics and influence the types of water bodies present in cities. We used a database of over 1 million water bodies in 100 cities across the conterminous United States to compare the size distributions, connectivity (as intersection with surface flow lines), and shape (as measured by shoreline development factor) of water bodies in different land cover classes. Water bodies in all urban land covers were dominated by lakes and ponds, while reservoirs and wetlands comprised only a small fraction of the sample. In urban land covers, as compared to surrounding undeveloped land, water body size distributions converged on moderate sizes, shapes toward less tortuous shorelines, and the number and area of water bodies that intersected surface flow lines (i.e. streams and rivers). Potential mechanisms responsible for changing the characteristics of urban water bodies include: preferential removal, physical reshaping or addition of water bodies, and selection of locations for development. The relative contributions of each mechanism likely changes as cities grow. The larger size and reduced surface connectivity of urban water bodies may affect the role of internal dynamics and sensitivity to catchment processes. More broadly, these results illustrate the complex nature of urban watersheds and highlight the need to develop a conceptual framework for urban water bodies.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. In the context of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions caused by deforestation and forest degradation (the REDD+ program), optical very high resolution (VHR) satellite images provide an opportunity to characterize forest canopy structure and to quantify aboveground biomass (AGB) at less expense than methods based on airborne remote sensing data. Among the methods for processing these VHR images, Fourier textural ordination (FOTO) presents a good potential to detect forest canopy structural heterogeneity and therefore to predict AGB variations. Notably, the method does not saturate at intermediate AGB values as do pixelwise processing of available space borne optical and radar signals. However, a regional scale application requires to overcome two difficulties: (i) instrumental effects due to variations in sun-scene-sensor geometry or sensor-specific responses that preclude the use of wide arrays of images acquired under heterogeneous conditions and (ii) forest structural diversity including monodominant or open canopy forests, which are of particular importance in Central Africa. In this study, we demonstrate the feasibility of a rigorous regional study of canopy texture by harmonizing FOTO indices of images acquired from two different sensors (Geoeye-1 and QuickBird-2) and different sun-scene-sensor geometries and by calibrating a piecewise biomass inversion model using 26 inventory plots (1 ha) sampled across very heterogeneous forest types. A good agreement was found between observed and predicted AGB (RSE=15%; R²=0.85; p-value

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Variable retention harvesting (VRH) is an approach for sustaining complex structure in managed forests. A criticism of VRH is that ecological benefits may come at a cost of reduced growth of regeneration, due to competition with residual trees. However, the spatial pattern of retention, i.e., dispersed or aggregated, in VRH systems can be manipulated to minimize suppression of regeneration, and resource limitation to regeneration might be mitigated by reduction of woody shrubs. Continued growth of the residual cohort will compensate for growth reduction of regeneration, although this may differ with retention pattern. We examined above-ground whole-stand biomass growth of trees in a VRH experiment in Pinus resinosa forest in Minnesota, USA. Treatments included dispersed retention, aggregated retention, and an uncut control, as well as a shrub treatment (reduced density or ambient). We addressed the following hypotheses: 1) biomass growth of a cohort of planted pine seedlings will be highest with aggregated rather than dispersed retention; 2) biomass growth of the planted seedlings will increase with shrub reduction; and 3) biomass growth of the residual overstory will be higher with dispersed rather than aggregated retention. Above-ground biomass growth of the planted pines ranged from 0.4 kg ha-1 yr-1 in the overstory control-ambient shrub treatment to 23 kg ha-1 yr-1 in the aggregated retention-shrub reduction treatment. The difference between the control and the retention treatments was significant (p 100% increase) with shrub reduction (p=0.001), supporting our second hypothesis. Biomass growth of residual trees ranged from 2404 kg ha-1 yr-1 in the uncut control-ambient shrub treatment to 1043 kg ha-1 yr-1 in the aggregated retention-shrub reduction treatment. Differences were significant between the control and retention treatments (p=0.003), and marginally higher with dispersed versus aggregated retention (p=0.09), lending support to our third hypothesis. Our results suggest that managers have flexibility in application of VRH and can expect similar stand-level biomass growth of planted regeneration regardless of retention pattern, but somewhat higher stand-level biomass growth of retained trees with dispersed retention.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Biodiversity conservation in rangeland environments is often addressed by removing livestock, but inconsistent responses by biota mean that the efficacy of this form of management is hotly debated. Reasons for this inconsistency include the usually short duration and small spatial scale of manipulations compared to the area of grazing properties, as well as divergent responses amongst biota. In low-productivity arid environments, the pulse-reserve dynamic also complicates the outcome of manipulations. Here, we test and extend these ideas in a heterogeneous desert environment in central Australia that consists of small patches of open woodland (gidgee) in a grassland (spinifex) matrix. Taking advantage of a controlled property-scale removal of cattle, and a rain event that stimulated productivity, we firstly quantify differences in the vegetation and small vertebrates of these two habitats, and then track the diversity, composition and abundance of these biota for 6-19 months post-rain. We predicted that the two habitats would differ in the structure, composition and reproductive output of their constituent plant species. We predicted also that the effects of cattle removal would interact with these habitat differences, with the abundance, richness and diversity of small mammals and reptiles differing across habitats and grazing treatments. As anticipated, plant species composition in woodland was distinct from that in grassland and varied over time. The effects of cattle-removal were habitat-specific: plant composition responded to de-stocking in woodland but not in grassland; flowers were more abundant, and palatable plant cover also was greater following cessation of grazing pressure. The responses of small mammals but not reptiles showed some accord with our predictions, varying over time but inconsistently with treatment, and perhaps reflected high variability in capture success. We conclude that the timing and length of sampling are important when evaluating the responses of biota to livestock removal, as is the inclusion of all key habitats in the sampling regime.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Over-harvest and landscape change are two of the greatest threats to marine ecosystems. Over-harvest may directly affect key population regulation mechanisms (e.g., density dependence), with the magnitude of the effects being further influenced by changes in landscape structure and associated resource availability. Because resource availability and conspecific density often co-vary within the natural landscape, manipulative experiments are needed to understand how changes in these two drivers may affect density dependence in wild populations. We used a common, shoaling, coral reef fish (white grunt, Haemulon plumierii) as our model species, and manipulated fish densities and landscape context of artificial reef habitats to assess the effects of each on fish condition. We found evidence of inverse density dependence, where individual condition was positively related to conspecific density; landscape context had little effect. Mean grunt condition on natural patch reefs was similar to that for our low grunt density treatment artificial reefs, possibly due to differences in fish densities or landscape context. These findings suggest that over-harvest may have detrimental effects on wild populations that extend beyond mere reductions in population size, especially for group-living species.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Studies on the interactive responses to multiple simultaneously acting stressors have focused on individual or population-level responses in laboratory microcosms, while field-based studies on community-level responses are rare. We examined the influence of a natural (non-anthropogenic acidity) vs. human-induced stress (land drainage) and their interaction on species richness and spatial turnover (β-diversity) of stream diatom, bryophyte and benthic invertebrate communities. Our four stream categories were: circumneutral reference, circumneutral impacted, naturally acidic and naturally acidic impacted streams. We expected the most sensitive species to be only present in the circumneutral reference streams. Therefore, species richness should be highest in these streams and lowest in the naturally acidic streams additionally stressed by forest drainage. Alternatively, communities in acidic streams may consist of the most tolerant taxa that are unaffected by further stressors, species richness in these streams remaining unaffected by drainage. We also expected spatial turnover to be highest in the circumneutral near-pristine streams and lowest in the drainage-impacted acidic streams. In all three taxonomic groups, α-diversity was lower in the naturally acidic than circumneutral streams. The additional impact of the anthropogenic stress on species richness varied between groups, having no effect on diatoms, antagonistic effect on bryophytes, and additive effect on invertebrates. We also found differences in how each stressor modified β-diversity of each taxonomic group. For diatoms, β-diversity showed an overall tendency to decrease with increasing stress level while bryophyte β-diversity responded mainly to forest drainage. Benthic invertebrate β-diversity did not differ between treatments. Our results suggest that non-additive effects among stressors need special attention to improve the understanding and management of multifactor responses in streams. Our results also argue for the primacy of a multi-taxon approach to environmental impact detection, and for the inclusion of a wide array of ecological responses, particularly community turnover, in bioassessment programs to detect responses that may go unnoticed by conventional richness-based measures.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. The American pika (Ochotona princeps) has become a species of concern for its sensitivity to warm temperatures and potential vulnerability to global warming. We explored the value of radiocarbon dating of fecal pellets to address questions of population persistence and timing of site extirpation. Carbon was extracted from pellets collected at 43 locations in the western Great Basin, USA, including 3 known occupied sites and 40 sites of uncertain status at range margins or where previous studies indicated the species is vulnerable. We resolved calibrated dates with high precision (within several years), most of which fell in the period of the mid-late 20th century "bomb curve." The two-sided nature of the bomb curve renders "far-" and "near-side" dates of equal probability, which are separated by 1-4 decades. We document methods for narrowing resolution to one age range, including stratigraphic analysis of vegetation collected from pika haypiles. No evidence was found for biases in atmospheric 14C levels due to fossil-derived or industrial CO2 contamination. Radiocarbon dating indicated that pellets can persist for 〉59 years; known-occupied sites resolved contemporary dates. Using combined evidence from field observations and radiocarbon-dating, and the Bodie Mountains (Mtns) as an example, we propose a historical biogeographic scenario for pikas in minor Great Basin mountain ranges adjacent to major cordillera wherein historical climate variability led to cycles of extirpation and re-colonization during alternating cool and warm centuries. Using this model to inform future dynamics for small ranges in biogeographic settings similar to the Bodie Mtns, CA, extirpation of pikas appears highly likely under directional warming trends projected for the next century, even while populations in extensive cordillera (e.g., Sierra Nevada, Rocky Mtns, Cascade Range) are likely to remain viable due to extensive, diverse, habitat and high connectivity.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Studies of predator-prey demographic responses and the physical drivers of such relationships are rare, yet essential for predicting future changes in the structure and dynamics of marine ecosystems. Here, we hypothesize that predator-prey relationships vary spatially in association with underlying physical ocean conditions, leading to observable changes in demographic rates, such as reproduction. To test this hypothesis, we quantified spatio-temporal variability in hydrographic conditions, krill, and forage fish to model predator (seabird) demographic responses over 18 years (1990-2007). We used principal component analysis and spatial correlation maps to assess coherence among ocean conditions, krill, and forage fish, and generalized additive models to quantify interannual variability in seabird breeding success relative to prey abundance. The first principal component of 4 hydrographic measurements yielded an index that partitioned "weak/warm upwelling" and "strong/cool upwelling" years. Partitioning of krill and forage fish time series among shelf and oceanic regions yielded spatially-explicit indicators of prey availability. Krill abundance within the oceanic region was remarkably consistent between years, whereas krill over the shelf showed marked interannual fluctuations in relation to ocean conditions. Anchovy abundance varied on the shelf, and was greater in years of strong stratification/weak upwelling and warmer temperatures. Spatio-temporal variability of juvenile forage fish covaried strongly with each other and with krill, but was weakly correlated with hydrographic conditions. Demographic responses between seabirds and prey availability revealed spatially-variable associations indicative of the dynamic nature of habitat-prey relationships. Quantification of spatially-explicit demographic responses, and their variability through time, demonstrates the possibility of delineating specific critical areas where the implementation of protective measures could maintain functions and productivity of central place foraging predators.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 24, Issue 3, Page 518-527, April 2014. Mangroves are recognized to possess a variety of ecosystem services including high rates of carbon sequestration and storage. Deforestation and conversion of these ecosystems continue to be high and have been predicted to result in significant carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Yet few studies have quantified the carbon stocks or losses associated with conversion of these ecosystems. In this study we quantified the ecosystem carbon stocks of three common mangrove types of the Caribbean as well as those of abandoned shrimp ponds in areas formerly occupied by mangrove—a common land-use conversion of mangroves throughout the world. In the mangroves of the Montecristi Province in Northwest Dominican Republic we found C stocks ranged from 706 to 1131 Mg/ha. The medium-statured mangroves (3–10 m in height) had the highest C stocks while the tall (〉10 m) mangroves had the lowest ecosystem carbon storage. Carbon stocks of the low mangrove (shrub) type (

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 24, Issue 3, Page 539-547, April 2014. Diazotrophic cyanobacteria are capable of fixing atmospheric N2 to satisfy their physiological nitrogen requirements. This process can result in the transfer of substantial amounts of “new” diazotrophic nitrogen (ND) to aquatic ecosystems during blooms of these taxa. Using in situ measurements of plankton natural abundance stable isotope composition and a combination of underway and fixed site survey data, the total ND flux into the Gippsland Lakes estuary (Australia) was estimated during a summer bloom of the diazotrophic cyanobacterium Nodularia spumigena. Over the course of the bloom, ND increased in the upper water column of the estuary from 33% ± 17% (mean ± SD) to 73% ± 13% of the standing pool of total particulate N. A conservative estimate of total ND flux (146 Mg) equates to an estimated 177% of the summer total N load and 22% of the annual total N load to the estuary. Combining natural abundance stable isotope measurements with relatively simple fixed and underway survey designs can provide a cost-effective approach for monitoring the ND flux into estuary or lacustrine environments. This approach relies on an isotopic differential between the diazotrophic and the non-diazotrophic components of the plankton community; it may not be appropriate in ecosystems that experience low-level blooms or blooms of intermittent N-fixing cyanobacteria. Large-scale blooms of diazotrophic cyanobacteria are considered uncommon in estuaries, yet it is clear that these blooms can represent major sources of new N to estuarine ecosystems when and where they occur.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Conservation practitioners, faced with managing multiple threats to biodiversity and limited funding, must prioritize investment in different management actions. From an economic perspective, it is routine practice to invest where the highest rate of return is expected. This return-on-investment (ROI) thinking can also benefit species conservation, and researchers are developing sophisticated approaches to support decision-making for cost-effective conservation. However, applied use of these approaches is limited. Managers may be wary of 'black-box' algorithms or complex methods that are difficult to explain to funding agencies. As an alternative, we demonstrate the use of a basic ROI analysis for determining where to invest in cost-effective management to address threats to species. This method can be applied using basic geographic information system and spread sheet calculations. We illustrate the approach in a management-action prioritization for a biodiverse region of eastern Australia. We use ROI to prioritize management actions for two threats to a suite of threatened species: habitat degradation by cattle grazing and predation by invasive red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). We show how decisions based on cost-effective threat management depend upon how expected benefits to species are defined and how benefits and costs co-vary. By considering a combination of species richness, restricted habitats, species vulnerability, and costs of management actions, small investments can result in greater expected benefit compared with management decisions that consider only species richness. Furthermore, a landscape management strategy that implements multiple actions is more efficient than managing only for one threat or more traditional approaches that don't consider ROI. Our approach provides transparent and logical decision-support for prioritizing different actions intended to abate threats associated with multiple species; it is of use when managers need a justifiable and repeatable approach to investment.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Widespread fire suppression and thinning have altered the structure and composition of many western U.S. forests making them more susceptible to the synergy of large-scale drought and fire events. We examine how these changes affect carbon storage and stability compared to historic fire-adapted conditions. We modeled carbon dynamics under possible drought and fire conditions over a 300 year simulation period in two mixed-conifer conditions common in the western U.S.: 1) pine-dominated with an active fire regime and 2) fir-dominated, fire suppressed forests. Fir-dominated stands, with higher live and dead wood density, had much lower carbon stability as drought and fire frequency increased compared to pine-dominated forest. Carbon instability results from species (i.e., fir's greater susceptibility to drought and fire) and stand (i.e., high density of smaller trees) conditions that develop in the absence of active management. Our modeling suggests restoring historic species composition and active fire regimes can significantly increase carbon stability in fire-suppressed, mixed-conifer forests. Long-term management of forest carbon should consider the relative resilience of stand structure and composition to possible increases in disturbance frequency and intensity under changing climate.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Protected areas are a cornerstone for biodiversity, but they also provide amenities that attract housing development on inholdings and adjacent private lands. We explored how this development affects biodiversity within and near protected areas among six ecological regions throughout the United States. We quantified the effect of housing density within, at the boundary, and outside protected areas, and natural land cover within protected areas, on the proportional abundance and proportional richness of three avian guilds within protected areas. We developed three guilds from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, which included Species of Greatest Conservation Need, land cover affiliates (e.g., forest breeders), and synanthropic species associated with urban environments. We gathered housing density data for the year 2000 from the U.S. Census Bureau, and centered the bird data on this year. We obtained land cover data from the 2001 National Land Cover Database, and we used single- and multiple-variable analyses to address our research question. In all regions, housing density within protected areas was positively associated with the proportional abundance or proportional richness of synanthropes, and negatively associated with the proportional abundance or proportional richness of Species of Greatest Conservation Need. These relationships were strongest in the eastern-forested regions and the central grasslands, where more than 70% and 45%, respectively, of the variation in the proportional abundance of synanthropes and Species of Greatest Conservation Need were explained by housing within protected areas. Furthermore, in most regions, housing density outside protected areas was positively associated with the proportional abundance or proportional richness of synanthropes and negatively associated with the proportional abundance of land cover affiliates and Species of Greatest Conservation Need within protected areas. However, these effects were weaker than housing within protected areas. Natural land cover was high with little variability within protected areas and consequently was less influential than housing density within or outside protected areas explaining the proportional abundance or proportional richness of the avian guilds. Our results indicate that housing development within, at the boundary, and outside protected areas impacts avian community structure within protected areas throughout the United States.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. Understanding space use of free-living endangered animals is key to inform management decisions for conservation planning. Like most scavengers, vultures have evolved under a context of unpredictability of food resources (i.e. exploiting scattered carcasses that are intermittently available). However, the role of predictable sources of food in shaping spatial ecology of vultures has seldom been studied in detail. Here, we quantify the home range of the Egyptian vulture (Neophron percnopterus), a long-lived raptor which has experienced severe population decline throughout its range and is qualified as endangered worldwide. To this end six adults were tracked by satellite telemetry in Spain during the breeding season, from 2007 to 2012, recording 10360 GPS locations. Using Resource Utilization Functions, we assessed the topology of the Utilization Distribution, a three-dimensional measure that shows the probability of finding an animal within the home range. Our results showed how food availability and principally, how food predictability, determines ranging behaviour of this species. Egyptian vultures showed consistent site fidelity across years, measured as the two and three-dimensional overlap in their home ranges. Space use varied considerably within the home range and remarkably, places located far from nesting sites were used more frequently than some areas located closer. Therefore, traditional conservation measures based on establishing restrictive rules within a fixed radius around nesting sites could be biologically meaningless if other areas within the home range are not protected too. Finally, our results emphasize the importance of anthropogenic predictable sources of food (mainly vulture restaurants) in shaping the space use of scavengers, which is in agreement with recent findings. Hence, measures aimed at ensuring food availability are essential to preserve this endangered vulture, especially in the present context of limiting carrion dumping in the field due to sanitary regulations according to European legislation.

Description: Ecological Applications, Ahead of Print. A better understanding of how individuals respond to variation in habitat quality while moving through heterogeneous habitats is needed to predict ecological phenomena at larger scales, such as local population and metapopulation dynamics. We sought to identify how fine-scale habitat quality affects the decisions of juvenile pond-breeding salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum and A. annulatum) to cease dispersive movements away from their natal pond, select a refuge, and settle. Because of the acute susceptibility of juvenile amphibians to evaporative water loss in terrestrial habitats we predicted that they possess mechanisms for adjusting their behavior in response to variations in fine-scale habitat quality. We used experimental field enclosures to isolate the effects of habitat quality on settling behavior and employed generalized linear mixed models to examine how manipulations in canopy cover (closed or open) and microhabitat (control, compacted soils, high coarse woody debris, high burrow density), along with environmental variables (rainfall and air temperature) affect the individual's probability of settling. Our results indicated that A. maculatum and A. annulatum had a 10% and 30% decreased probability of settling in open-canopy clearcut habitat, respectively, compared to closed-canopy forest habitat. In addition, A. annulatum were 24% less likely to settle in compacted soil treatments. Although the settlement probability of A. annulatum did not depend on refuge availability, A. maculatum were 18% and 25% more likely to settle under conditions of high burrow density and high coarse woody debris, respectively. These findings make a unique contribution to our understanding of amphibian movement ecology by demonstrating how the interplay of external factors and individual behavior produce observed patterns of movement and habitat selection.

Description: Little research has examined whether forests reduce stream water eutrophication in agricultural areas during spring snowmelt periods. This study evaluated the role of forests in ameliorating deteriorated stream water quality in agricultural areas, including pasture, during snowmelt periods. Temporal variation in stream water quality at a mixed land-use basin (565 ha: pasture 13%, forestry 87%), northern Japan, was monitored for 7 years. Synoptic stream water sampling was also conducted at 16 sites across a wide range of forest and agricultural areas in a basin (18.3 km 2 ) in spring, summer, and fall. Atmospheric nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) deposition were measured for 4 years. The results showed that concentration pulses of nitrate (NO 3 – ), organic N (ON), and total P (TP) in stream water were observed when discharge increased during spring snowmelt. Their concentrations were high when silicate concentrations were low, suggesting surface water exported from pasture largely contributed to stream water pollution during snowmelt. Atmospheric N and P deposition (4.1 kg N ha –1 y –1 ; 0.09 kg P ha –1 y –1 , respectively) was too low to affect the background concentrations of N and P in streams from forested areas. Reduction of eutrophication caused by nutrients from pasture was mainly due to dilution by water containing low concentrations of N and P exported from forested areas, while in-stream reduction were not dominant processes. Results indicate that forests have a limited capacity to reduce the concentration pulses of N and P in stream water during snowmelt in this study basin. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In NLDAS-2 Noah simulation, the NLDAS team introduced an intermediate “fix” to constrain the surface exchange coefficient when the atmospheric boundary layer is stable. In the current NLDAS-2 Noah version, this fix is used for all stable cases including snow-free grid cells. In this study, we simply apply this fix to the grid cells in which both stable atmospheric boundary layer and snow exist simultaneously, excluding the snow-free grid cells as we recognize that the fix in NLDAS-2 is too strong. We conduct a 31-year (1979-2009) NLDAS-2 Noah interim (Noah-I) run, and use observed streamflow, evapotranspiration, land surface temperature, soil temperature, and ground heat flux to evaluate the results, including comparisons with the original NLDAS-2 Noah run. The results show that Noah-I has the same performance as NLDAS-2 Noah for snow water equivalent; however, Noah-I significantly improved the simulation of other hydrometeorological products as noted above when compared to NLDAS-2 Noah and the observations. This simple modification is being included in the next Noah version used in NLDAS. The hydrometeorological products from the improved NLDAS-2 Noah-I are being staged on the NCEP public server. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Large-scale watershed modelling presents a unique challenge in terms of physiographic and climatological heterogeneity and spatially varied hydrologic responses. In particular, the spatial variability in hydrologic processes may introduce a high degree of uncertainty in the modelling of a large watershed. This study assessed the uncertainties in annual/seasonal streamflow and annual peak flow simulations with respect to selection of climate data and model parameter sets for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model of the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Alberta, Canada. Two high-resolution gridded climate data sets over the 1979 to 2010 period, and six different model parameter sets calibrated corresponding to different time periods and various hydrologic patterns, were employed to quantify the uncertainty in VIC simulations. Moreover, the possibility of an ensemble approach to predict hydrologic responses in the ARB has been investigated. The results indicated that stramflow simulations near the headwater and along the Athabasca River mainsteam have high uncertainty corresponding to selection of climate data mainly due to greater difference of precipitation between the two climate data sets, whereas sub-basin stations at low-elevations were more sensitive to the selection of parameter set for interflow-dominated runoff cycle. All stations showed higher uncertainty corresponding to the selection of parameter set for annual peak flows. In addition, this study confirmed that the ensemble means can provide more accurate and consistent hydrologic information for the low-elevation area where higher internal variability exists. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Multilayer covers are widely accepted reclamation designs in the oil sands region of northern Alberta, Canada, with an ultimate goal of revegetating to species characteristic of predisturbance native plant communities. To determine the optimal depth of reclamation material required to reclaim overburden shale from an oil sands mine, an evaluation was made of the long-term performance of six reclamation soil cover depths all placed over overburden. The measured soil water contents from different cover thicknesses at South Bison Hills located at the Syncrude Mine site north of Fort McMurray, Alberta were used to calibrate and validate a dual-porosity model in HYDRUS-1D. The calibrated and validated model was then used to evaluate the influence of cover thickness and climatic variability on plant available water for forest growth. The frequency distributions of actual transpiration (T r ) for six cover treatments with a range of leaf area index (LAI) cases were developed. These T r frequency distributions were then modified by coupling T r and LAI. The modified frequency distributions for annual T r for the six simulated cover thickness highlight the strong non-linearity between the distribution of T r over a long-term (60 year) climate cycle in that incremental increases in cover thickness do not produce proportional increases in T r . The results indicated that, once the cover thickness exceeds 100 cm, there is little incremental increase in the median value of T r over the 60 year climate cycle. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Within peatland ecosystems small deviations in surface elevation result in microforms that differ in depth to water-table, plant type and rate of biogeochemical cycling, possibly leading to differences in peat physical and hydrological properties that could feed back to whole ecosystem hydrological and biogeochemical function. However, hydrological parameters for peatland microforms have not been quantified. This study determined bulk density, pore size distribution and saturated hydraulic conductivity (K sat ) at hummocks and hollows of four, Sphagnum -dominated Canadian peatlands. Study sites included both a bog and poor fen in each of Alberta and Quebec allowing for investigation of differences in peat hydrophysical properties between microforms across a range of Sphagnum -dominated peatlands. Hydraulic conductivity was determined in the laboratory on peat from the surface (0.03-0.08 m) and the saturated zone (0.20 m below the local water-table position). Peatland type, climate region, microform and depth of peat were all significant descriptors of variation in K sat . Deeper peat was less conductive than surface peat. Hummocks generally had higher K sat than hollows at both surface and saturated zones, although differences between microforms varied between sites. Differences in K sat between samples were correlated with bulk density, von Post humification and macroporosity. These results indicate that there are microtopographical differences in peat hydrophysical properties; however, the strong decline in K sat with depth indicates that differences in the local water-table, resulting in a change in depth of water flow, is likely a stronger control on local K sat than microform type. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Variable retention harvesting (VRH) is an approach for sustaining complex structure in managed forests. A criticism of VRH is that ecological benefits may come at a cost of reduced growth of regeneration, due to competition with residual trees. However, the spatial pattern of retention, i.e., dispersed or aggregated, in VRH systems can be manipulated to minimize suppression of regeneration, and resource limitation to regeneration might be mitigated by reduction of woody shrubs. Continued growth of the residual cohort will compensate for growth reduction of regeneration, although this may differ with retention pattern. We examined above-ground whole-stand biomass growth of trees in a VRH experiment in Pinus resinosa forest in Minnesota, USA. Treatments included dispersed retention, aggregated retention, and an uncut control, as well as a shrub treatment (reduced density or ambient). We addressed the following hypotheses: 1) biomass growth of a cohort of planted pine seedlings will be highest with aggregated rather than dispersed retention; 2) biomass growth of the planted seedlings will increase with shrub reduction; and 3) biomass growth of the residual overstory will be higher with dispersed rather than aggregated retention. Above-ground biomass growth of the planted pines ranged from 0.4 kg ha-1 yr-1 in the overstory control-ambient shrub treatment to 23 kg ha-1 yr-1 in the aggregated retention-shrub reduction treatment. The difference between the control and the retention treatments was significant (p 100% increase) with shrub reduction (p=0.001), supporting our second hypothesis. Biomass growth of residual trees ranged from 2404 kg ha-1 yr-1 in the uncut control-ambient shrub treatment to 1043 kg ha-1 yr-1 in the aggregated retention-shrub reduction treatment. Differences were significant between the control and retention treatments (p=0.003), and marginally higher with dispersed versus aggregated retention (p=0.09), lending support to our third hypothesis. Our results suggest that managers have flexibility in application of VRH and can expect similar stand-level biomass growth of planted regeneration regardless of retention pattern, but somewhat higher stand-level biomass growth of retained trees with dispersed retention.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. In the context of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions caused by deforestation and forest degradation (the REDD+ program), optical very high resolution (VHR) satellite images provide an opportunity to characterize forest canopy structure and to quantify aboveground biomass (AGB) at less expense than methods based on airborne remote sensing data. Among the methods for processing these VHR images, Fourier textural ordination (FOTO) presents a good potential to detect forest canopy structural heterogeneity and therefore to predict AGB variations. Notably, the method does not saturate at intermediate AGB values as do pixelwise processing of available space borne optical and radar signals. However, a regional scale application requires to overcome two difficulties: (i) instrumental effects due to variations in sun-scene-sensor geometry or sensor-specific responses that preclude the use of wide arrays of images acquired under heterogeneous conditions and (ii) forest structural diversity including monodominant or open canopy forests, which are of particular importance in Central Africa. In this study, we demonstrate the feasibility of a rigorous regional study of canopy texture by harmonizing FOTO indices of images acquired from two different sensors (Geoeye-1 and QuickBird-2) and different sun-scene-sensor geometries and by calibrating a piecewise biomass inversion model using 26 inventory plots (1 ha) sampled across very heterogeneous forest types. A good agreement was found between observed and predicted AGB (RSE=15%; R²=0.85; p-value

Description: A regional, or pooled, approach to frequency analysis is explored in the context of the estimation of rainfall quantiles required for the formation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. Resampling experiments are used, in conjunction with two rainfall data sets with long record lengths, to explore the merits of a pooled approach to the estimation of extreme rainfall quantiles. The width of the 95% confidence interval for quantile estimates is used as the primary basis to evaluate the relative merits of pooled and single site estimates of rainfall quantiles. Recommendations are formulated for applying the regional approach to frequency analysis and these recommendations are used in the application of the regional approach to 40 sites with IDF data in southern Ontario, Canada. The results demonstrate that the regional approach is preferred to single site analysis for estimating extreme rainfall quantiles for conditions and data availability commonly encountered in practice. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Integrated river basin models should provide a spatially distributed representation of basin hydrology and transport processes to allow for spatially implementing specific management and conservation measures. To accomplish this, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was modified by integrating a landscape routing model to simulate water flow across discretized routing units. This paper presents a grid-based version of the SWAT landscape model that has been developed to enhance the spatial representation of hydrology and transport processes. The modified model uses a new flow separation index that considers topographic features and soil properties to capture channel and landscape flow processes related to specific landscape positions. The resulting model is spatially fully distributed and includes surface, lateral, and groundwater fluxes in each grid cell of the watershed. Furthermore it more closely represents the spatially heterogeneous distributed flow and transport processes in a watershed. The model was calibrated and validated for the Little River Watershed (LRW) near Tifton, Georgia (USA). Water balance simulations as well as 30 the spatial distribution of surface runoff, subsurface flow and evapotranspiration are examined. Model results indicate that groundwater flow is the dominant landscape process in the LRW. Results are promising and satisfactory output was obtained with the presented grid-based SWAT landscape model. Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies for daily stream flow were 0.59 and 0.63 for calibration and validation periods and the model reasonably simulates the impact of the landscape position on surface runoff, subsurface flow and evapotranspiration. Additional revision of the model will likely be necessary to adequately represent temporal variations of transport and flow processes in a watershed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Direct sediment inputs from forest roads at stream crossings are a major concern for water quality and aquatic habitat. Legacy road-stream crossing approaches, or the section of road leading to the stream, may have poor water and grade control upon reopening, thus increasing the potential for negative impacts to water quality. Rainfall simulation experiments were conducted on the entire running surface area associated with six reopened stream crossing approaches in the southwestern Virginia Piedmont physiographic region, USA. Event-based surface runoff and associated total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations were compared among a succession of gravel surfacing treatments that represented increasing intensities of best management practice (BMP) implementation. The three treatments were No Gravel (10-19% cover), Low Gravel (34-60% cover), and High Gravel (50-99% cover). Increased field hydraulic conductivity was associated with maximized surface cover, and ranged from 7.2 to 41.6, 11.9 to 46.3, and 16.0 to 58.6 mm h -1 , respectively, for the No Gravel, Low Gravel, and High Gravel treatments. Median TSS concentration of surface runoff for the No Gravel treatment (2.84 g L -1 ) was greater than Low Gravel (1.10 g L -1 ) and High Gravel (0.82 g L -1 ) by factors of 2.6 and 3.5, respectively. Stream crossing approaches with 90-99% surface cover had TSS concentrations below 1 g L -1 . Reducing the length of road segments that drain directly to the stream can reduce the costs associated with gravel surfacing. This research demonstrates that judicious and low-cost BMPs can ameliorate poor water control and soil erosion associated with reopening legacy roads. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Wood borers and bark beetles are among the most serious forest pests worldwide. Many such species have become successful invaders, often causing substantial, costly damages to forests. Here we design and evaluate the cost-efficiency of a trap-based surveillance program for early detection of wood borers and bark beetles at risk of establishing in New Zealand. Though costly, a surveillance program could lead to earlier detection of newly established forest pests, thereby increasing the likelihood of successful eradication and reducing control costs and damages from future invasions. We develop a mechanistic bioeconomic model that relates surveillance intensity (i.e., trap density) and invasion size to probabilities of detection and control; it captures the dynamics of invasive species establishment, spread, and damages to urban and plantation forests. We employ the model to design surveillance programs that provide the greatest net present benefits. Our findings suggest that implementing a surveillance trapping program for invasive wood borers and bark beetles would provide positive net benefits under all scenarios considered. The economically optimal trapping strategy calls for a very high investment in surveillance: about 10,000 traps in each year of the 30-year surveillance program, at a present value cost of US$54 million. This strategy provides a 39% reduction in costs compared with no surveillance, corresponding to an expected net present benefit of approximately US$300 million. Although surveillance may provide the greatest net benefits when implemented at relatively high levels, our findings also show that even low levels of surveillance are worthwhile: the economic benefits from surveillance more than offset the rising costs associated with increasing trapping density. Our results also show that the cost-efficiency of surveillance varies across target regions because of differences in pest introduction and damage accumulation rates across locales, with greater surveillance warranted in areas closer to at-risk high-value resources and in areas that receive more imported goods that serve as an invasion pathway.