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  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-07
    Beschreibung: Phase-locked to austral winter and spring, canonical positive Indian Ocean Dipoles (pIODs) generally peak in spring. In recent decades, there has been an increase in unseasonable pIODs which, different from canonical pIODs, peak and decay by September. Distinguishing unseasonable pIODs from canonical pIODs is important, as conditions leading to more frequent unseasonable events are projected to persist in a warming climate. Here using superimposition of the first two seasonally evolving dominant modes of tropical Indian Ocean rainfall variability, we differentiate these types of pIODs. The first mode reflects characteristics of canonical pIODs, in which anomalies intensify with seasonal evolution. However, the second mode, with cool and dry anomalies extending from the eastern pole, reverses from winter to spring, signifying the demise of unseasonable pIODs. Processes embedded in the second mode reflect timing of propagation in equatorial Kelvin waves, and their relative importance to the first mode, in generating different pIODs.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Digitale ISSN: 1944-8007
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-15
    Beschreibung: Ocean wave activity excites seismic waves that propagate through the solid earth, known as microseismic noise. Here we use a network of 57 ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS) deployed around La Réunion Island in the southwest Indian Ocean to investigate the noise generated in the secondary microseismic band as a tropical cyclone moved over the network. Spectral and polarization analyses show that microseisms strongly increase in the 0.1 - 0.35 Hz frequency band as the cyclone approaches, and that this noise is composed of both compressional and surface waves, confirming theoretical predictions. We infer the location of maximum noise amplitude in space and time, and show that it coincides roughly with the location of maximum ocean-wave interactions. Although this analysis was performed retrospectively, microseisms recorded on the seafloor can be considered a novel source of information for future real-time tracking and monitoring of major storms, complementing atmospheric, oceanographic and satellite observations.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Digitale ISSN: 1944-8007
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 3
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-15
    Beschreibung: Anthropogenic CO 2 is causing warming and ocean acidification. Coral reefs are being severely impacted, yet confusion lingers regarding how reefs will respond to these stressors over this century. Since the 1982-83 El Niño-Southern Oscillation warming event, the persistence of reefs around the Galápagos Islands has differed across an acidification gradient. Reefs disappeared where pH 〈 8.0 and aragonite saturation state (Ω arag ) ≤ 3 and have not recovered, whereas one reef has persisted where pH 〉 8.0 and Ω arag  〉 3. Where upwelling is greatest, calcification by massive Porites is higher than predicted by a published relationship with temperature despite high CO 2 , possibly due to elevated nutrients. However, skeletal P/Ca, a proxy for phosphate exposure, negatively correlates with density ( R  = -0.822, p  〈 0.0001). We propose that elevated nutrients have the potential to exacerbate acidification by depressing coral skeletal densities and further increasing bioerosion already accelerated by low pH.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Digitale ISSN: 1944-8007
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 4
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-15
    Beschreibung: Changes to the temporal distribution of daily precipitation were investigated using a dataset of 12,513 land-based stations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The distribution of precipitation was measured using the Gini index (which describes how uniformly precipitation is distributed throughout a year) and the annual number of wet days. The Mann-Kendall test and a regression analysis were used to assess the direction and rate of change to both indices. Over the period of 1976-2000, East Asia, central America and Brazil exhibited a decrease in the number of both wet and light precipitation days, and eastern Europe exhibited a decrease in the number of both wet and moderate precipitation days. In contrast, the USA, southern South America, western Europe and Australia exhibited an increase in the number of both wet and light precipitation days. Trends in both directions were field significant at the global scale.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Digitale ISSN: 1944-8007
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 5
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-15
    Beschreibung: In the lowermost mantle, seismic velocity variations beneath Pacific margins have been related to the perovskite (pv) to post-perovskite (pPv) phase transition. We investigate the influence of this phase transformation on the geoid using 3D spherical mantle circulation models based on a seismic tomography model and strong lateral viscosity variations in the lower mantle. We demonstrate that the geoid anomalies are strongly affected by the presence of pPv because of phase-dependent viscosity changes relative to the surrounding mantle. Whereas geoid heights above subduction zones are increased for high-viscosity pPv, the presence of weak pPv reduces them, thereby improving the fit to the observed geoid. An investigation using two different tomography models, different pPv density contrasts, and the presence or absence of a global thermal boundary layer and of lateral viscosity variations in the lower mantle demonstrate the various effects of weak pPv on the geoid.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Digitale ISSN: 1944-8007
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 6
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-15
    Beschreibung: The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) influences multidecadal drought risk across the Pacific, but there are no millennial-length, high resolution IPO reconstructions for quantifying long-term drought risk. In Australia, drought risk increases in positive phases of the IPO, yet few suitable rainfall proxies and short (~100 y) instrumental records mean large uncertainties remain around drought frequency and duration. Likewise, it is unknown whether mega-droughts have occurred in Australia's past. In this study, an atmospheric teleconnection in the Indian Ocean mid-latitudes linking East Antarctica and Australia is exploited to produce the first accurate, annually dated millennial-length IPO reconstruction from the Law Dome (East Antarctica) ice core. Combined with an eastern Australian rainfall proxy from Law Dome, the first millennial-length Australian mega-drought (〉5 y duration) reconstruction is presented. Eight mega-droughts are identified including one 39 y drought (AD 1174–1212), which occurred during an unprecedented century of aridity (AD 1102–1212).
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Digitale ISSN: 1944-8007
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 7
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-08
    Beschreibung: Many details of how thunderstorms generate terrestrial gamma-ray flashes (TGFs) and other forms of high energy radiation remain uncertain, including the basic question of where they are produced. We exploit the association of distinct low frequency radio emissions with generation of terrestrial gamma-ray flashes (TGFs) to directly measure for the first time the TGF source altitude. Analysis of two events reveals source altitudes of 11.8 ± 0.4 km and 11.9 ± 0.9 km. This places the source region in the interior of the thunderstorm between the two main charge layers, and implies an intrinsic TGF brightness of approximately 10 18 runaway electrons. The electric current in this non-traditional lightning process is found to be strong enough to drive nonlinear effects in the ionosphere, and in one case is comparable to the highest peak current lightning processes on the planet.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 8
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-08
    Beschreibung: A large volcanic eruption might constitute a climate emergency, significantly altering global temperature and precipitation for several years. Major future eruptions will occur, but their size or timing cannot be predicted. We show, for the first time, that it may be possible to counteract these climate effects through deliberate emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases, dampening the abrupt impact of an eruption. We estimate an emission pathway countering a hypothetical eruption three times the size of Mt Pinatubo in 1991. We use a global climate model to evaluate global and regional responses to the eruption, with and without counter emissions. We then raise practical, financial and ethical question related to such a strategy. Unlike the more commonly-discussed geoengineering to mitigate warming from long-lived greenhouse gases, designed emissions to counter temporary cooling would not have the disadvantage of needing to be sustained over long periods. Nevertheless, implementation would still face significant challenges.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 9
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-08
    Beschreibung: Vertical component data from 206 broadband seismometer stations from Korean networks KIGAM and KMA, the Japanese F-net network, and the Chinese IC and NECESSArray networks are collected for the year 2011 and the ambient seismic noise is analyzed. Rayleigh wave group velocity distribution maps are created in the period range 10 to 70 seconds. Our results are largely consistent with previous studies of the area, but provide greater detail in the Korean peninsula and the East Sea (Sea of Japan). Low group velocities are observed in the Ulleung basin, and the Chubu-Kanto and Kyushu regions in Japan. At 10 s period, sediment basins in the East Sea appear as low group velocity regions relative to higher group velocity continental regions. At periods longer than 40 s, a low group velocity region emerges in the Ulleung basin region, and is bounded by the Korean peninsula.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 10
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-08
    Beschreibung: After more than 4.5 years in orbit, the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) mission ended with the reentry of the satellite on 11 November 2013. This publication serves as a reference for the 5th gravity field model based on the time-wise approach (EGM_TIM_RL05), a global model only determined from GOCE observations. Due to its independence of any other gravity data, a consistent and homogeneous set of spherical harmonic coefficients up to degree and order 280 (corresponding to spatial resolution of 71.5 km on ground) is provided including a full covariance matrix characterizing the uncertainties of the model. The associated covariance matrix realistically describes the model quality. It is the first model which is purely based on GOCE including all observations collected during the entire mission. The achieved mean global accuracy is 2.4 cm in terms of geoid heights and 0.7 mGal for gravity anomalies at a spatial resolution of 100 km.
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    Digitale ISSN: 1944-8007
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 11
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-08
    Beschreibung: It has been suggested that an increased melting of continental ice in the Amundsen Sea (AS) and Bellinghausen Sea (BS) is a likely source of the observed freshening of Ross Sea (RS) water. To test this hypothesis, we simulate the spreading of glacial melt water using the Finite-Element Sea-ice/ice-shelf/Ocean Model. Based on the spatial distribution of simulated passive tracers, most of the basal melt water from AS ice shelves flows towards the RS with more than half of the melt originating from the Getz Ice Shelf. Further, the model results show that a slight increase of the basal mass loss can substantially intensify the transport of melt water into the RS due to a strengthening of the melt-driven shelf circulation and the westward flowing coastal current. This supports the idea that the basal melting of AS and BS ice shelves is one of the main sources for the RS freshening.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Digitale ISSN: 1944-8007
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 12
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-08
    Beschreibung: We report on the development of an easily deployable LF near-field Interferometric-TOA 3D Lightning Mapping Array applied to imaging of entire lightning flashes. An interferometric cross-correlation technique is applied in our system to compute windowed two-sensor time differences with sub-microsecond time resolution before TOA is used for source location. Compared to previously reported LF lightning location systems, our system captures many more LF sources. This is due mainly to the improved mapping of continuous lightning processes by using this type of hybrid interferometry/TOA processing method. We show with five station measurements that the array detects and maps different lightning processes, such as stepped and dart leaders, during both in-cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes. Lightning images mapped by our LF system are remarkably similar to those created by VHF mapping systems, which may suggest some special links between LF and VHF emission during lightning processes.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 13
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-08
    Beschreibung: We estimate the snow albedo forcing and direct radiative forcing (DRF) of black carbon (BC) in the Tibetan Plateau using a global chemical transport model in conjunction with a stochastic snow model and a radiative transfer model. The annual mean BC snow albedo forcing is 2.9 W m −2 averaged over snow-covered Plateau regions, which is a factor of three larger than the value over global land snowpack. BC-snow internal mixing increases the albedo forcing by 40-60% compared with external mixing and coated BC increases the forcing by 30-50% compared with uncoated BC aggregates, whereas Koch snowflakes reduce the forcing by 20-40% relative to spherical snow grains. The annual BC DRF at the top of the atmosphere is 2.3 W m −2 with uncertainties of −70-85% in the Plateau after scaling the modeled BC absorption optical depth to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations. The BC forcings are attributed to emissions from different regions.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Digitale ISSN: 1944-8007
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 14
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-08
    Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Basal melt is a major cause of ice shelf thinning affecting the stability of the ice shelf and reducing its buttressing effect on the inland ice. The Fimbul ice shelf (FIS) in Dronning Maud Land (DML), East Antarctica, is fed by the fast-flowing Jutulstraumen glacier, responsible for 10% of ice discharge from the DML sector of the ice sheet. Current estimates of the basal melt rates of the FIS come from regional ocean models, autosub measurements and satellite observations, which vary considerably. This discrepancy hampers evaluation of the stability of the Jutulstraumen catchment. Here, we present estimates of basal melt rates of the FIS using ground based interferometric radar. We find a low average basal melt rate on the order of 1 m/yr, with the highest rates located at the ice shelf front, which extends beyond the continental shelf break. Furthermore, our results provide evidence for a significant seasonal variability.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Digitale ISSN: 1944-8007
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 15
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-09
    Beschreibung: A significant source of ozone in the troposphere is transport from the stratosphere. The stratospheric contribution has been estimated mainly using global models that attribute the transport process largely to the global scale Brewer-Dobson circulation and synoptic scale dynamics associated with upper tropospheric jet streams. We report observations from research aircraft that reveal additional transport of ozone-rich stratospheric air downward into the upper troposphere by a leading-line-trailing-stratiform (LLTS) mesoscale convective system (MCS) with convection overshooting the tropopause altitude. The fine-scale transport demonstrated by these observations poses a significant challenge to global models that currently do not resolve storm scale dynamics. Thus the upper tropospheric ozone budget simulated by global chemistry-climate models where large-scale dynamics and photochemical production from lightning-produced NO are the controlling factors may require modification.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Digitale ISSN: 1944-8007
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 16
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-09
    Beschreibung: Near simultaneous periodic dispersive features of fast magnetosonic mode emissions are observed by both Van Allen Probes spacecraft while separated in magnetic local time by ~5 hours: Probe A at 15 and Probe B at 9–11 hours. Both spacecraft see similar frequency features, characterized by a periodic repetition at ~180 s. Each repetition is characterized by a rising frequency. Since no modulation is observed in the proton shell distribution, the plasma density, or in the background magnetic field at either spacecraft we conclude that these waves are not generated near the spacecraft but external to both spacecraft locations. Probe A while outside the plasmapause sees the start of each repetition ~40 s before probe B while deep inside the plasmasphere. We can qualitatively reproduce the dispersive features, but not the quantitative details. The cause for this phenomena remains to be identified.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 17
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-05
    Beschreibung: Gas hydrates, pervasive in continental margin sediments, are expected to release methane in response to ocean warming, but the geographic range of dissociation and subsequent flux of methane to the ocean are not well constrained. Sediment column thermal models based on observed water column warming trends offshore Washington (USA) show that a substantial volume of gas hydrate along the entire Cascadia upper continental slope is vulnerable to modern climate change. Dissociation along the Washington sector of the Cascadia margin alone has the potential to release 45–80 Tg of methane by 2100. These results highlight the importance of lower latitude warming to global gas hydrate dynamics and suggest that contemporary warming and downslope retreat of the gas hydrate reservoir occurs along a larger fraction of continental margins worldwide than previously recognized.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Digitale ISSN: 1944-8007
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 18
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-05
    Beschreibung: The jet stream over the eastern North Pacific (ENPJ) as a core of the atmospheric flow is known to strongly fluctuate meridionally, and its meridional displacement directly influences adjacent regional climate. Here, we investigate how this jet will be changed due to global warming. By analyzing the future scenario experiments of CMIP3 and 5, and found that both ENPJ and the eastern tropical Pacific ITCZ tend to move southward, which are closely related to the tropical eastern Pacific warming trend. Tropical eastern Pacific warming leads to not only the southward migration of ITCZ by southward-shifting the off-equatorial eastern Pacific warm pool, but also the southward shift of ENPJ by increasing baroclinic instability of the atmosphere in subtropical region through intensifying the meridional SST gradient. Not primary but yet secondly the southward shift of ITCZ contributes to the southward shift of ENPJ through a kinematic connection bridged by local Hadley circulation.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Digitale ISSN: 1944-8007
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 19
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-05
    Beschreibung: Groundwater recharge affects water budgets and groundwater quality on the deltas and floodplains of South and Southeast Asia. Rain and flooding rivers recharge groundwater during the monsoon; irrigated rice fields and surface-water bodies recharge aquifers during the dry season. Groundwater throughout the region is severely contaminated by arsenic and recent research suggests that quantifying and characterizing recharge is important to understand whether recharge flushes or mobilizes arsenic from aquifers. At a field site in Bangladesh, we found that burrows of terrestrial crabs short-circuit low-permeability surface sediments, providing the primary conduit for recharge. We combine field observations along with a model that couples isotope and water balances to quantify the effect of crab burrows on aquifer recharge. Given the wide distribution of burrowing crabs and the surficial geology, we suggest that crab burrows provide widespread conduits for groundwater recharge.
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 20
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-05
    Beschreibung: We demonstrate that broadband low frequency electromagnetic field fluctuations embedded within fast flows throughout the Earth's plasma sheet may drive significant ion heating. This heating is nearly entirely in the direction perpendicular to the background magnetic field and is estimated to occur at an average rate of ~1 eV/s with rates in excess of 10 eV/s within one standard deviation of the average value over all observed events. For an Earthward flow the total change in temperature along a flow path may exceed one keV and for ‘wave-rich’ flows can be comparable to that expected due to conservation of the first adiabatic invariant. The consequent increase in plasma pressure and flux tube entropy may lead to braking of inward motion and the suppression of plasma interchange.
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    Digitale ISSN: 1944-8007
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 21
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-05
    Beschreibung: Along the continental margins, rivers and submarine groundwater supply nutrients, trace elements, and radionuclides to the coastal ocean, supporting coastal ecosystems and, increasingly, causing harmful algal blooms and eutrophication. While the global magnitude of gauged riverine water discharge is well known, the magnitude of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is poorly constrained. Using an inverse model combined with a global compilation of 228 Ra observations, we show that the SGD integrated over the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Oceans between 60°S and 70°N is (12 ± 3) x 10 13  m 3  yr -1 , which is 3 to 4 times greater than the freshwater fluxes into the oceans by rivers. Unlike the rivers, where more than half of the total flux is discharged into the Atlantic, about 70% of SGD flows into the Indo-Pacific Oceans. We suggest that SGD is the dominant pathway for dissolved terrestrial materials to the global ocean, and this necessitates revisions for the budgets of chemical elements including carbon.
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 22
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-06
    Beschreibung: Fast chemical reactions in geophysical flows are controlled by fluid mixing, which perturbs local chemical equilibria and thus triggers chemical reactions. Spatial fluctuations in the flow velocity lead to deformation of material fluid elements, which form the support volumes of transported chemical species. We develop an approach based on a lamellar representation of fluid mixing that provides a direct link between fluid deformation, the distribution of concentration gradiens, and the upscaled reaction rates for fast reversible reactions. The temporal evolution of effective reaction rates are determined by the flow topology and the distribution of local velocity gradients. This leads to a significant increase of the reaction efficiency, which turns out to be orders of magnitude larger than in homogeneous flow. This approach allows for the systematic evaluation of the temporal evolution of equilibrium reaction rates, and establishes a direct link between the reaction efficiency and the spatial characteristics of the underlying flow field as quantified by the deformation of material fluid elements.
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 23
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-06
    Beschreibung: The 1 April 2014 Iquique M w 8.1 earthquake ruptured a segment of the megathrust fault offshore of northern Chile and generated a moderate-size tsunami across the Pacific. Tide gauges in Hawaii recorded over 1 m of wave height despite the long distance from the source and position away from the main radiated energy lobe. Inversion of global teleseismic body wave observations combined with forward modeling of the tsunami at four near-field DART stations arrives iteratively at a self-consistent finite-fault model with very compact dimensions. The slip distribution produces a NNE-SSW trending seafloor uplift patch that enhances the tsunami directionality in the WNW, resulting in good matches to observed DART and tide gauge records around the Hawaiian Islands. The relatively large waves at selected locations in Hawaii can be attributed to a combination of the spatial slip distribution and the resulting short-period waves that triggered localized resonance over the insular shelves. This event highlights the importance of characterizing detailed slip distributions in analysis or forecasting of tsunamis even for a compact source.
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 24
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-11-06
    Beschreibung: The first decade of the twenty-first century was characterised by a hiatus in global surface warming. Using ocean model hindcasts and reanalyses we show that heat uptake between the 1990s and 2000s increased by 0.7 ± 0.3 Wm −2 . Approximately 30% of the increase is associated with colder sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Other basins contribute via reduced heat loss to the atmosphere, in particular the Southern and subtropical Indian Oceans (30%), and the subpolar North Atlantic (40%). A different mechanism is important at longer timescales (1960s-present) over which the Southern Annular Mode trended upwards. In this period, increased ocean heat uptake has largely arisen from reduced heat loss associated with reduced winds over the Agulhas Return Current and southward displacement of Southern Ocean westerlies.
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 25
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-16
    Beschreibung: The EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core has allowed for the reconstruction of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations for the last 800,000 years. Here, we revisit the oldest part of the EDC CO 2 record using different air extraction methods and sections of the core. For our established cracker system, we found an analytical artifact, which increases over the deepest 200 m and reaches 10.1 ± 2.4 ppm in the oldest/deepest part. The governing mechanism is not yet fully understood, but it is related to insufficient gas extraction in combination with ice relaxation during storage and ice structure. The corrected record presented here resolves partly the issue with a different correlation between CO 2 and Antarctic temperatures found in this oldest part of the records, however, this anomaly still persists. In addition we provide here an update of 800,000 years atmospheric CO 2 history including recent studies covering the last glacial cycle.
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  • 26
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-16
    Beschreibung: Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) construct of ozone regression models attributes ozone changes to EESC changes using a single value of the sensitivity of ozone to EESC over the whole period. Using space-based total column ozone (TCO) measurements, and a synthetic TCO time series constructed such that EESC does not fall below its late 1990s maximum, we demonstrate that the EESC-based estimates of ozone changes in the polar regions (70–90°) after 2000 may, falsely, suggest an EESC-driven increase in ozone over this period. An EESC-based regression of our synthetic “failed Montreal Protocol with constant EESC" time series suggests a positive TCO trend that is statistically significantly different from zero over 2001–2012 when in fact no recovery has taken place. Our analysis demonstrates that caution needs to be exercised when using explanatory variables, with a single fit coefficient, fitted to the entire data record, to interpret changes in only part of the record.
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  • 27
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-16
    Beschreibung: We present a statistical study of the temporal and spatial scale characteristics of different field-aligned current (FAC) types derived with the Swarm satellite formation. We divide FACs into two classes: small-scale, up to some ten kilometer, which arecarried predominantly by kinetic Alfvén waves, and large-scale FACs with sizes of more than 150 km. For determining temporal variability we consider measurements at the same point, the orbital crossovers near the poles, but at different times. Fromcorrelation analysis we obtain a persistent period of small-scale FACs of order 10 s, while large-scale FACs can be regarded stationary for more than 60 s. For the first time we investigate the longitudinal scales. Large-scale FACs are different on dayside and nightside. On the nightside the longitudinal extension is on average 4 times the latitudinal width, while on the dayside, in particular in the cusp region, latitudinal and longitudinal scales are comparable.
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  • 28
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-15
    Beschreibung: Although the relative velocity of a single crystal or bubble in a quiescent fluid (melt) is well-characterized, the interplay of crystals/bubbles in multiparticle systems and its effect on their settling/rising velocity is poorly quantified. We propose a theoretical model for the hindered velocity of non-Brownian emulsions and suspensions of non-deformable fluid and solid particles in the creeping flow regime. The model is based on three sets of correction; two on the drag coefficient experienced by each particle to account for both return flow and Smoluchowski effects, and a correction on the rheology to account for non-local interactions introduced as a mean-field effective viscosity. Our model is tested against new and published experimental data over a wide range of particle volume fraction and viscosity ratio between the fluids. We find an excellent agreement between our model and experiments. The model is then applied to show that hindered settling can increase mineral residence time by up to an order of magnitude in convecting magma chambers.
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  • 29
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-15
    Beschreibung: 14 C content in tree rings and 10 Be concentration records in polar ice core provide information about past cosmic ray intensities. The AD 774–775 cosmic ray event has been identified by 14 C measurement in several tree rings from all over the world. Although the quasi-decadal 10 Be Dome Fuji data in the Antarctic ice core also shows a sharp peak around AD 775, annual 10 Be variations in the Dome Fuji core or in other cores have not been revealed. We have measured quasi-annual 10 Be concentrations from approximately AD 763–794 in the Dome Fuji ice core, and detected a clear increase (~80% above the baseline) in 10 Be concentration around AD 775. However, an accurate height of this increase is not straightforwardly estimated due to the background variation in 10 Be concentration. The 10 Be increase can be due to the same cosmic ray event as shown in the 14 C content in AD 774–775.
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  • 30
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-15
    Beschreibung: For the first time a mesoscale-resolving whole atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) has been developed, using the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) with ~0.25° horizontal resolution and 0.1 scale height vertical resolution above the middle stratosphere (higher resolution below). This is made possible by the high accuracy and high scalability of the spectral element dynamical core from the High-Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME). For the simulated January-February period, the latitude-height structure and the magnitudes of the temperature variance compare well with those deduced from SABER observations. The simulation reveals the increasing dominance of gravity waves (GWs) at higher altitudes through both the height dependence of the kinetic energy spectra, which display a steeper slope (~-3) in the stratosphere and an increasingly shallower slope above, and the increasing spatial extent of GWs (including a planetary-scale extent of a concentric GW excited by a tropical cyclone) at higher altitudes. GW impacts on the large-scale flow is evaluated in terms of zonal mean zonal wind and tides: with no GW drag parameterized in the simulations, forcing by resolved GWs does reverse the summer mesospheric wind, albeit at an altitude higher than climatology, and only slows down the winter mesospheric wind without closing it. The hemispheric structures and magnitudes of diurnal and semidiurnal migrating tides compare favorably with observations.
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  • 31
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-15
    Beschreibung: We demonstrate via numerical simulations that the impact of a ~ lunar-sized body with Mars is capable of creating a hemispherical magma ocean that upon cooling and solidification resulted in the formation of the southern highlands and thus the Martian dichotomy. The giant impact may have contributed a significant amount of iron to the Martian core and generated a deep thermal anomaly that led to the onset and development of the volcanism in the southern highlands. Our model predicts several mantle plumes converging to the South Pole from the equatorial regions as well as new plumes forming in the equatorial region and also an absence of significant large-scale volcanism in the northern lowlands. The core heat flux evolution obtained from our numerical models is consistent with the decline of the magnetic field. We argue that such a scenario is more consistent with a range of observations than a northern giant impact (excavating the Borealis basin) for the formation of the Martian dichotomy.
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  • 32
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-15
    Beschreibung: We present ice velocities observed with global positioning systems and TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X in a land-terminating region of the south-west Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) during the melt-year 2012–2013, to examine the spatial pattern of seasonal and annual ice motion. We find that whilst spatial variability in the configuration of the subglacial drainage system controls ice motion at short timescales, this configuration has negligible impact on the spatial pattern of the proportion of annual motion which occurs during summer. Whilst absolute annual velocities vary substantially, the proportional contribution of summer motion to annual motion does not. These observations suggest that in land-terminating margins of the GrIS, subglacial hydrology does not significantly influence spatial variations in net summer speedup. Furthermore, our findings imply that not every feature of the subglacial drainage system needs to be resolved in ice sheet models.
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  • 33
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-15
    Beschreibung: Measurements of particulate δ 15 N in coastal marine laminated sediments provide a high-resolution proxy for fluctuations in the intensity of denitrification in the water column. In the Eastern Tropical North Pacific oxygen minimum zone, this denitrification signal is transported northward by the California Undercurrent, thus serving as a tracer of ocean circulation. This is verified through comparisons between salinity in the thermocline off Southern California (Santa Monica Basin) and the difference between δ 15 N sed within age equivalent sediments from a southern (Pescadero Slope) and northern (Santa Monica Basin) site. Trends in this parameter, Δ δ 15 N sed , relate to Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase changes between 1900 and 1990. We hypothesize that the decline in Δ δ 15 N sed during warm PDO phases is due to a strengthening of the California Undercurrent transporting 15  N-enriched nitrate from the ETNP northward. The deviation from this trend after 1990 suggests recent changes in circulation and/or California Current water nutrient biogeochemistry.
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  • 34
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-12-15
    Beschreibung: Natural climate variations in the United States wind resource are assessed by using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) to decompose wind reanalysis data. Compared to approaches that average climate signals or assume stationarity of the wind resource on interannual timescales, the CSEOF analysis isolates variability associated with specific climate oscillations, as well as their modulation from year to year. Contributions to wind speed variability from the modulated annual cycle (MAC) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are quantified, and information provided by the CSEOF analysis further allows the spatial variability of these effects to be determined. The impacts of the MAC and ENSO on the wind resource are calculated at existing wind turbine locations in the United States, revealing variations in the wind speed of up to 30% at individual sites. The results presented here have important implications for predictions of wind plant power output and siting.
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  • 35
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-09
    Beschreibung: The Cassini Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) observed an occultation of the Sun by the water vapor plume at the south polar region of Saturn's moon Enceladus. The Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spectrum is dominated by the spectral signature of H2O gas, with a nominal line-of-sight column density of 0.90 ± 0.23 × 1016 cm−2 (upper limit of 1.0 × 1016 cm−2). The upper limit for N2 is 5 × 1013 cm−2, or
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  • 36
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-10
    Beschreibung: A decadal change in the frequency of dust outbreaks for April over East Asia using World Meteorological Organization (WMO) synoptic data was identified. The causes of the decadal change can be defined in terms of aeolian erosivity (i.e., ability of wind to cause erosion represented by wind speed) and erodibility (i.e., susceptibility of soil and land surface to wind erosion represented by the threshold wind speed for dust outbreak). Dust outbreak frequency (fDO) increased at many stations in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, northeastern China, and the Hexi Corridor from the 1990s to the 2000s. Especially, remarkable increases were observed for Mongolia. Strong wind frequency (fu〉ut5%) decreased or changed little over the period of study, and the 5th percentile of the threshold wind speed for dust outbreak (ut5%) decreased at many stations in Mongolia, eastern Inner Mongolia, and northeastern China. This suggests changes in erodibility factors increased fDO in these regions. There are stations where fu〉ut5% increased and ut5% remained relatively constant in western Inner Mongolia and the Hexi Corridor. This suggests changes in the erosivity factor increased fDO at these locations. The change in erodibility is linked, in part, to the effect of dead leaves of grasses in spring, which are the residue of vegetation in summer from the previous year, which can cause an increase in the threshold wind speed.
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  • 37
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-11
    Beschreibung: Studies into the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on regional summer monsoon rainfall have focused on a black carbon-induced enhancement and a sulfate-induced suppression. The latter encompasses significant Asian and non-Asian sources, but their relative roles in forcing historical global and regional monsoon trends are largely unexplored. Using targeted 20th century coupled climate simulations, designed to isolate the impact from anthropogenic aerosols, we show that Asian aerosols induce a weak suppression of global summer monsoon, confined to the East Asian region. The addition of non-Asian aerosols generates an enhancement and broadening of cooler temperatures over Europe and Asia relative to the ambient oceans, supporting stronger northerly flows that further suppress Asian monsoon rainfall. Furthermore, atmospheric convection is directed away from the Asian monsoon regions, resulting in an equatorward shift in rainfall. Our results highlight the importance of the non-Asian aerosols in exacerbating the impact of Asian aerosols on global monsoon rainfall, particularly across Asia.
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  • 38
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-14
    Beschreibung: The impact of climate change upon groundwater has an increasing profile in the literature but there is little guidance on selecting Global Climate Models (GCMs), downscaling methods or hydrological models. This paper quantifies the relative uncertainties inherent in projections of future recharge contributed by multiple GCMs, downscaling methods and hydrological models at three locations across southern Australia. Results highlight that the choice of GCM is the largest source of uncertainty, with a median range between the highest and lowest GCM of 53% of the historical recharge for a given downscaling method and hydrological model. The downscaling method is the next largest source of uncertainty with a median range of 44% and the choice of hydrological model is the source of the least uncertainty with a median range of 24%. These results strongly suggest that impact studies should use multiple GCMs and give careful consideration to the choice of downscaling methods.
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  • 39
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-16
    Beschreibung: We study the separate impacts of changing atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) and stratospheric ozone concentrations on past (1960–2010) and future (2010–2100) Southern Ocean conditions. To this end we employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean model with interactive stratospheric chemistry. In our model we separately prescribe i) GHGs that monotonically increase to 2100 and ii) ozone depleting substances (ODSs) that rapidly increase to a maximum in 1995 and then slowly return to 1960 values around 2100, following moderate emission scenarios. Past GHG and ODS changes in our model drive, in about equal measure in the annual mean, poleward intensified surface winds which act to strengthen the sub polar meridional ocean circulation cell and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Future GHG-induced oceanic changes continue nearly monotonically to 2100, while the ODS-induced ACC transport peaks, and then reverses, a couple of decades after the ODS maximum in 1995. The ODS impact on ACC transport exceeds the corresponding GHG impact up to the second quarter of the 21st century, a result that highlights the importance of often-neglected stratospheric ozone trends for the simulation of the ocean circulation.
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  • 40
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-19
    Beschreibung: Acceleration of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Helheim, Kangerdlugssuaq and Jakobshavn Isbræ, accounted for a substantial portion of the ice sheet's mass loss over the past decade. Rapid changes in their discharge, however, make their cumulative mass-change uncertain. We derive monthly mass balance rates and cumulative balance from discharge and surface mass balance (SMB) rates for these glaciers from 2000 through 2010. Despite the dramatic changes observed at Helheim, the glacier gained mass over the period, due primarily to the short-duration of acceleration and a likely longer-term positive balance. In contrast, Jakobshavn Isbræ lost an equivalent of over 11 times the average annual SMB and loss continues to accelerate. Kangerdlugssuaq lost over 7 times its annual average SMB, but loss has returned to the 2000 rate. These differences point to contrasts in the long-term evolution of these glaciers and the danger in basing predictions on extrapolations of recent changes.
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  • 41
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-19
    Beschreibung: Reconstructions of the spatial pattern of recent multi-decadal sea level trends in the Indian Ocean (IO) indicate a zonally-extended band in the southern tropics where sea level has substantially fallen between the 1960s and 1990s; the decline is consistent with the observed subsurface cooling associated with a shoaling thermocline in this region. Here the origin and spatio-temporal characteristics of these trends are elucidated by a sequence of ocean model simulations. Whereas interannual variability in the southwestern tropical IO appears mainly governed by IO atmospheric forcing, longer term changes in the south tropical IO involve a strong contribution from the western Pacific via wave transmission of thermocline anomalies through the Indonesian Archipelago, and their subsequent westward propagation by baroclinic Rossby waves. The late 20th-century IO subsurface cooling trend reversed in the 1990s, reflecting the major regime shift in the tropical Pacific easterlies associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
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  • 42
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-21
    Beschreibung: Polar ionospheric heaters have generated ULF/ELF/VLF waves by modulating the auroral electrojet at D/E region altitudes. We present theoretical/computational results indicating that modulated F-region HF heating can generate ionospheric currents even in the absence of electrojet currents. The ELF currents are driven in a two-step process. First, the pressure gradient associated with F-region electron heating drives a local diamagnetic current. This acts as an antenna to inject Magneto-Sonic (MS) waves in the ionospheric plasma. Second, the electric field of the magneto-sonic wave drives Hall currents when it reaches the E region of the ionosphere. The Hall currents act as a secondary antenna that injects waves in the Earth-Ionosphere Waveguide below and Shear Alfven waves upwards to the conjugate regions. The paper examines the scaling and limitations of the concept and suggests proof-of-principle experiments using the HAARP ionospheric heater.
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  • 43
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-21
    Beschreibung: Thermospheric density simultaneously observed by the CHAMP and GRACE satellites in both the pre-dawn and afternoon local time sectors undergoes significant decrease across both hemispheres during the major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) in January 2009. This decrease is largest in the equatorial region near the subsolar latitude, reaching ∼30% at 325 km, and 45% at 475 km altitude in the afternoon sector. This large density drop demonstrates a substantial cooling of about 50 Kelvin in the equatorial upper thermosphere. Furthermore, the cooling varies clearly with longitude in terms of magnitude and the timing of the maximum cooling. Thermosphere cooling can have important impact on the ionosphere, as indicated by simultaneous plasma observations. Though many questions remain about what causes the cooling, our results open a new perspective for investigating the global coupling of the lower and upper atmosphere during SSWs.
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  • 44
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-22
    Beschreibung: The year 2010 featured a widespread drought in the Amazon rain forest, which was more severe than the “once-in-a-century” drought of 2005. Water levels of major Amazon tributaries fell drastically to unprecedented low values, and isolated the floodplain population whose transportation depends upon on local streams which completely dried up. The drought of 2010 in Amazonia started in early austral summer during El Niño and then was intensified as a consequence of the warming of the tropical North Atlantic. An observed tendency for an increase in dry and very dry events, particularly in southern Amazonia during the dry season, is concomitant with an increase in the length of the dry season. Our results suggest that it is by means of a longer dry season that warming in the tropical North Atlantic affects the hydrology of the Amazon Rivers at the end of the recession period (austral spring). This process is, sometimes, further aggravated by deficient rainfall in the previous wet season.
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  • 45
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-23
    Beschreibung: In summer 2010 an exceptional heatwave occurred over western Russia. At the same time sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were anomalously warm in the Barents Sea and the Arabian Sea. We investigate a possible link between these two SST anomalies by prescribing SST anomalies separately and combined in an ensemble of climate model simulations. The positive surface air temperature response over western Russia is strengthened if both SST forcings are combined. While the SST anomalies in the Arabian Sea are likely due to natural variability the sea surface in the Barents Sea is expected to warm in future and the sea-ice cover to decline enhancing the warming. Thus, we hypothesize that heatwaves over Europe and Russia will likely become more frequent as a result of the dynamic response of the atmosphere in addition to what is expected from the change in mean temperature.
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  • 46
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-24
    Beschreibung: Many volcanoes exhibit temporal changes in their degassing process, from rapid gas puffing to lava fountaining and long-lasting quiescent passive degassing periods. This range of behaviors has been explained in terms of changes in gas flux and/or magma input rate. We report here a simple laboratory experiment which shows that the non-Newtonian rheology of magma can be responsible, alone, for such intriguing behavior, even in a stationary gas flux regime. We inject a constant gas flow-rate Q at the bottom of a non-Newtonian fluid column, and demonstrate the existence of a critical flow rate Q* above which the system spontaneously alternates between a bubbling and a channeling regime, where a gas channel crosses the entire fluid column. The threshold Q* depends on the fluid rheological properties which are controlled, in particular, by the gas volume fraction (or void fraction) $\phi$. When $\phi$ increases, Q* decreases and the degassing regime changes. Non-Newtonian properties of magma might therefore play a crucial role in volcanic eruption dynamics.
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  • 47
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-28
    Beschreibung: Acoustic emissions and tremor-like signals are widely recorded in laboratory experiments. We are able to isolate the physical origins of these signals using high resolution nanoseismic analysis. The use of a picometer-sensitive, wide-band sensor array permits us to determine force-time functions and focal mechanisms for discrete events found amid the “noise” of friction, similar to how low frequency earthquakes are found buried within tremor. We interpret these localized events to be the rupture of μm-sized contacts, known as asperities. We performed stick-slip experiments on plastic/plastic and rock/rock interfaces and found a systematic difference between the nano earthquakes: the rock interface produces very rapid (
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  • 48
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-28
    Beschreibung: Rapid sea-ice retreat over the Arctic Ocean has a leading role in Arctic amplification. The sea-ice extent dramatically recovers during every freezing season, so despite the recent summer sea-ice retreat, there must be extraordinary heat exchange between the lower atmosphere and upper ocean. However, the underlying mechanisms for this remain uncertain. Here we show that autumn frontal cyclogenesis is a crucial event in the Arctic air-sea coupled system. Our shipboard Doppler radar and intensive radiosonde observations at the marginal ice zone detected an explosive frontal cyclogenesis, with coupling between upper and lower tropospheric vortices. The thermal contrast between ocean and ice surfaces is likely favorable to cyclogenesis with an identical life-cycle to that at mid-latitudes. This suggests a northward shift of meridional heat transport. The 1.5 K temperature decrease in the upper ocean after the cold front has passed reveals that a large amount of heat is transported into the atmosphere. This is an invaluable example of the fact that sea ice retreat contributes to polar amplification of surface air temperature increase.
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  • 49
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-19
    Beschreibung: Field line resonances (FLRs) are important for transferring energy from fast mode waves to shear Alfvén waves in the Earth's magnetosphere. Using simultaneous multi-satellite observations from THEMIS and the IMAGE ground magnetometer array, we report on the transfer of energy from compressional magnetopause undulations through an FLR to the ionosphere. Energy diversion from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere took place at the FLR: we find net energy flux there to have comparable values in the radial and the field-aligned directions. The field-aligned energy flux, when mapped to the ionosphere, was 0.70 mW/m2 and consistent with the inferred Joule dissipation rate at that time. IMAGE's regional monitoring of wave activity reveals that the temporal evolution of the FLR wave power and energy transfer were correlated with the amplitude profile of magnetopause undulations, confirming these waves to be the FLR driver.
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  • 50
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-21
    Beschreibung: We report observations of two negative polarity gigantic jets sufficiently near very high-frequency (VHF) lightning mapping networks that the associated lightning characteristics and charge transfer could be investigated. In both cases the gigantic jet-producing flash began as ordinary intracloud lightning with upper level channels attempting to exit the cloud, and then produced the upward gigantic jet. Neither flash had developed channels to ground, confirming that the major charge transfer during gigantic jets occurred between the cloud and ionosphere. The leader progression of one event was detected at altitudes above 20 km, demonstrating the possibility of detecting and tracking the propagation of negative jets above the cloud with VHF techniques.
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    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 51
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-22
    Beschreibung: The characteristics of the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones and its impact on the midlatitude flow are examined in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) multimodel ensemble prediction system (EPS). Ten ensemble forecasts initialized prior to ET for five tropical cyclones in 2008 are investigated using an empirical orthogonal function analysis and fuzzy clustering methodology. Each forecast contains 231 members from eight different global EPS. The EPS contributing to TIGGE differ in their spread and their contributions to the different scenarios. Some of the individual EPS are generally confined to only a few scenarios, whereas others contribute regularly to almost all. TIGGE contains more development scenarios than European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) EPS but the full range of development scenarios is only found with the ECMWF included in the multimodel EPS.
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  • 52
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-25
    Beschreibung: The 3D dynamic model of the plasmasphere developed by Pierrard and Stegen (2008) has been coupled with the ionospheric IRI model. In addition to the electron number density, the plasmaspheric model is also developed to include the temperature profiles of the different particles and ion composition at altitudes from 60 to 2000 km. Results of the model for the F region trough are compared with coincident observations of middle and top ionosphere by means of satellite tomography and radar measurements. A good match between the model and observations supports the idea that the present model is useful for investigating physical mechanism involved in the plasmasphere-ionosphere coupling and for acquiring information about the plasmaspheric behaviour based on ionospheric observations.
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  • 53
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-25
    Beschreibung: Alongshore transport was estimated from the gridded AVISO altimeter data and water level data from NOAA tide gauges (1993–2010) for the northern California Current (NCC) system. The biomass of the cold neritic copepods including Calanus marshallae, Pseudocalanus mimus and Acartia longiremis (dominants in the eastern Bering Sea, coastal Gulf of Alaska, and NCC) was estimated from a 15 year time series of zooplankton samples (1996–2010) collected biweekly at a coastal station 9 km off Newport Oregon U.S.A. The alongshore currents and the biomass of the cold neritic copepods exhibit a strong seasonal pattern and fluctuate in opposite phase: positive alongshore current (from south) leads to low biomass in winter and negative alongshore current (from north) leads to high biomass in summer. When the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is positive, i.e., warm conditions around the northeast Pacific, there is more movement of water from the south in the NCC during winter. When the PDO is negative, there is more movement of water from the north during summer. The mean biomass of cold neritic copepods was positively correlated with the survival rate of juvenile coho salmon and cumulative transport was negatively correlated with coho salmon survival, i.e., in years when a greater portion of the source waters feeding the NCC enters from the north, the greater the salmon survival. We conclude that alongshore transport manifests PDO signals and serves as a linkage between large scale forcing to local ecosystem dynamics.
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  • 54
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-25
    Beschreibung: Composite mean difference analyses are applied to historical sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) data to investigate the spatial dependence of the Pacific climate system response to 11-year solar forcing. Previous work has found that the SST and SLP responses are most clearly detected near the times of sunspot maxima, which occur as much as two years prior to the centers of the broad decadal solar cycle maxima. In January–February, the SLP response at sunspot maximum is nearly the same on either side of the equator, although the amplitude is larger in the winter hemisphere. The solar influence is seen as above normal SLP in the sub-Arctic Pacific, as found previously, and as corresponding positive SLP anomalies in the sub-Antarctic Pacific, as shown here for the first time. These SLP anomalies are associated with previously documented signals at sunspot maxima of greater ocean upwelling and cooling along the Pacific equator, and a poleward extension of the tropical convergence zones in both hemispheres. Previous studies using multiple linear regression methods show the broad decadal solar maxima being associated with the lagged warm response in equatorial Pacific SSTs seen in the composites, which is not inconsistent with the present results. In the South Pacific Ocean, the solar effect is visible in the southern summer in the year before the sunspot number peak. The SST and SLP anomalies in the South Pacific in the solar peaks differ markedly from those in Cold Events (La Niña events) of the Southern Oscillation.
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  • 55
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-29
    Beschreibung: The Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations (NSWE) provide a model for long wave behavior commonly used in tsunami modeling problems in which the scale associated with the surface wavelength is much greater than the ocean depth. This approximation allows for the derivation of the NSWE under the assumptions that the pressure is hydrostatic and the horizontal velocity components uniform along the water column. The present study uses current velocity data acquired by the Kilo Nalu Near-Shore Reef Observatory Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) on the south shore of Oahu (21.288°N, 157.865°W) in the aftermath of the 2006 Kuril tsunami to assess the validity of the NSWE assumptions on the velocity components. ADCP measurements provide information on all three velocity components along the water column, allowing the calculation of terms discarded in the NSWE approximation, containing temporal or vertical derivatives. Comparison of the relative magnitude of terms retained and neglected in the NSWE reveals that in shallow waters (10 m) the size of discarded terms remains smaller, but approaches the order of magnitude of retained terms in the momentum equations. Not all terms present in the equations can be evaluated from the available data, so verification of the assumptions investigated here represents a necessary but not sufficient condition for the validity of the NSWE approximation to model tsunami waves in shallow coastal waters.
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  • 56
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-29
    Beschreibung: The meridional transport of water vapor into the High Arctic, accompanied by dry enthalpy and clouds, impacts the surface radiative forcing. The evolution of one such moist intrusion over 9–11 February 2010 is presented. The event is analyzed using a unique blend of measurements including a new pan-Arctic retrieval of column water vapor from the Microwave Humidity Sounders, water vapor profiles from a Raman lidar and a ground-based microwave radiometer at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL), in Eureka (80°N, 86°W), on Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic. A radiation model reveals the intrusion is associated with a 17 W m−2 average increase in downwelling longwave irradiance. Optically thin clouds, as observed by the lidar, contribute a further 20 W m−2 to the downwelling longwave irradiance at their peak. Intrusion events are shown to be a regular occurrence in the Arctic winter with implications for the understanding of the mechanisms driving Arctic Amplification.
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  • 57
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-29
    Beschreibung: Because of an increasing human pressure on the naturally balanced nitrogen cycle, eutrophication-driven hypoxia and corresponding dead zones have multiplied over the last years. Models are used to predict the nitrogen balances and develop mitigation scenarios for such systems. Due to the very complex interaction of water and nitrogen fluxes, no single model structure has been commonly adopted to describe the fluxes best and modeling results often differ substantially. Relying on a single model prediction only can be therefore highly uncertain. Here we illustrate the potential advantage of using a probabilistic multi-model ensemble approach in comparison to predictions of each of its members. Evaluation of corresponding skills and potential economic values to correctly predict a 2 mg N/L target of total nitrogen concentration in the water flowing out of a catchment in south-west Western Australia is conducted. Results show that the ensemble has always more skill and almost always more potential economic value than any of its four members and that it therefore constitutes a more reliable choice in the decision-making process.
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  • 58
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-10
    Beschreibung: Aqueous chemistry can play a vital role in secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation and aging. A novel analytical approach that allows for simultaneous photo-oxidation and atomization of reacting bulk solutions coupled to an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) investigates aqueous OH oxidation of ambient biogenic SOA, cloud water from a biogenic environment, glyoxal, and mixtures of glyoxal with α-pinene SOA components. This is the first study of aqueous oxidative aging of ambient SOA and cloud water organics. Starting with an AMS-based observational framework, we show that aqueous oxidation of biogenic SOA in the presence of glyoxal can better represent observed atmospheric aging than when glyoxal is absent. Oxidation of glyoxal alongside semi-volatile SOA components leads to the production of highly oxidized SOA.
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  • 59
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-10
    Beschreibung: Erosion and deposition rates estimated from the stratigraphic record frequently exhibit a power-law dependence on measurement interval. This dependence can result from a power-law distribution of stratigraphic hiatuses. By representing the stratigraphic filter as a stochastic process called a reverse ascending ladder, we describe a likely origin of power-law hiatuses, and thus, rate scaling. While power-law hiatuses in certain environments can be a direct result of power-law periods of stasis (no deposition or erosion), they are more generally the result of randomness in surface fluctuations irrespective of mean subsidence or uplift. Autocorrelation in fluctuations can make hiatuses more or less heavy-tailed, but still exhibit power-law characteristics. In addition we show that by passing stratigraphic data backward through the filter, certain statistics of surface kinematics from their formative environments can be inferred.
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  • 60
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-11
    Beschreibung: A destructive earthquake (Mw = 6.1) occurred on the northeast end of the Palu segment of the East Anatolian Fault System (EAFS, eastern Turkey) on 8 March 2010. The spatial distribution of aftershocks suggests that the Palu segment does not terminate to the east of Palu town but extends in the N50°E direction where it has produced a 30 km right stepover. Aftershock depths indicate a seismogenic brittle zone of about 15 km depth. The stress changes on the segments due to recorded events might have loaded more than 0.5 bars of stress on the NE end of the Palu segment and the SW end of the Göynük segment. Therefore, a future earthquake on both segments may occur sooner than was expected before the occurrence of the Mw 6.1 earthquake on 8 March 2010.
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  • 61
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-14
    Beschreibung: One factor limiting the understanding of the climate impact from contrails and aircraft induced cloud modifications is the accurate determination of their optical depth. To this end, 14 contrails were sampled for 2756 s with instruments onboard the research aircraft Falcon during the CONCERT (CONtrail and Cirrus ExpeRimenT) campaign in November 2008. The young (
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  • 62
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-15
    Beschreibung: Throughout the global mid-ocean ridge system, transform faults offset spreading centers. Conductive cooling may be more efficient beneath transform faults, producing a thickened lithosphere that directs melt away from the transform. However, recent observations of thickened crust along transform faults at fast ridges suggest melt redistribution toward transforms, intra-crustal melt production, or efficient extraction of melt. We apply a 3-D model of melt migration and extraction along an oceanic transform domain bounded by ridge segments. Melt is assumed to travel vertically before collecting and migrating beneath a low-permeability boundary inclined towards the ridge axis. A melt extraction zone, which may be geologically interpreted as the presence of faults and/or dikes leading to rapid lateral and vertical melt migration toward plate boundaries, affects the pattern of crustal accretion at segmented ridges. First, we examine a generic ridge-transform-ridge geometry and then a model that represents the Siqueiros transform on the East Pacific Rise. On the basis of crustal thickness variations within the intra-transform spreading centers along the fast-slipping Siqueiros fault, we constrain the presence of a melt extraction zone within 10 km of the transform zone.
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  • 63
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-15
    Beschreibung: Aboriginal vegetation burning practices and their role in the Australian environment remains a central theme of Australian environmental history. Previous studies have identified a decline in the Australian summer monsoon during the late Quaternary and attributed it to land surface-atmosphere feedbacks, related to Aboriginal burning practices. Here we undertake a comprehensive, ensemble model evaluation of the effects of a decrease in vegetation cover over the summer monsoon region of northern Australia. Our results show that the climate response, while relatively muted during the full monsoon, was significant for the pre-monsoon season (austral spring), with decreases in precipitation, higher surface and ground temperatures, and enhanced atmospheric stability. These early monsoon season changes can invoke far-reaching ecological impacts and set-up land surface-atmosphere feedbacks that further accentuate atmospheric stability.
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  • 64
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-15
    Beschreibung: The spatial skill of four climate field reconstruction (CFR) methods is investigated using pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs) based on two millennial-length general circulation model simulations. Results indicate that presently available global and hemispheric CFRs for the Common Era likely suffer from spatial uncertainties not previously characterized. No individual method produced CFRs with universally superior spatial error statistics, making it difficult to advocate for one method over another. Northern Hemisphere means are shown to be insufficient for evaluating spatial skill, indicating that the spatial performance of future CFRs should be rigorously tested for dependence on proxy type and location, target data and employed methodologies. Observed model-dependent methodological performance also indicates that CFR methods must be tested across multiple models and conclusions from PPEs should be carefully evaluated against the spatial statistics of real-world climatic fields.
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  • 65
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-15
    Beschreibung: Boreal winter 2009–2010 made headlines for cold anomalies in many countries of the northern mid-latitudes. Northern Europe was severely hit by this harsh winter in line with a record persistence of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In the present study, we first provide a wider perspective on how unusual this winter was by using the recent 20th Century Reanalysis. A weather regime analysis shows that the frequency of the negative NAO was unprecedented since winter 1939–1940, which is then used as a dynamical analog of winter 2009–2010 to demonstrate that the latter might have been much colder without the background global warming observed during the twentieth century. We then use an original nudging technique in ensembles of global atmospheric simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) and radiative forcings to highlight the relevance of the stratosphere for understanding if not predicting such anomalous winter seasons. Our results demonstrate that an improved representation of the lower stratosphere is necessary to reproduce not only the seasonal mean negative NAO signal, but also its intraseasonal distribution and the corresponding increased probability of cold waves over northern Europe.
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  • 66
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-15
    Beschreibung: Isoprene, a compound emitted by vegetation, could be a major contributor to secondary organic aerosols (SOA) in the atmosphere. The main evidence for this contribution were the 2-methylbutane-1,2,3,4-tetraols, or 2-methyltetrols (2-methylerythritol and 2-methylthreitol) present in ambient aerosols. In this work, the four stereoisomers of these tetraols were analyzed in aerosols from Aspvreten, Sweden. 2-C-methyl-D-erythritol was found in excess over its enantiomer in the Spring/Summer, by up to 29% in July. This clearly indicated some biological origins for this enantiomer, consistent with its well-documented production by plants and other living organisms. In addition, a minimum of 20 to 60% of the mass of racemic tetraols appeared from biological origin. Thus, the SOA mass produced by isoprene in the atmosphere is less than what indicated by the 2-methyltetrols in aerosols. Our results also demonstrate that stereochemical speciation can distinguish primary and secondary organic material in atmospheric aerosols.
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  • 67
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-15
    Beschreibung: Multiple volcanic observations conducted at Mt. Asama, Japan, provide evidence of a link between single very-long-period (VLP) seismic pulses and volcanic gas emissions. SO2 flux measurements were conducted on 2 June 2009, when Mt. Asama was producing ash-free eruptions with VLP pulses. Gas bursts from a vent at the crater bottom following the VLP pulses provided an excellent opportunity to examine the relation directly. The SO2 emission for each eruption was calculated by integrating high temporal SO2 flux data obtained by the SO2 imaging system and subtracting the contribution from quiescent degassing from fumaroles around the crater bottom. A seismic moment of VLP pulse was estimated by the waveform inversion. We observed seven eruptions and obtained the proportional relation between VLP pulse moment and SO2 emission. The relation determined is consistent with the VLP source model; these observational results are the first report of a quantitative comparison between single VLP pulse moment and volcanic gas emission.
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  • 68
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-15
    Beschreibung: Volcanic edifice construction at the Earth's surface significantly modifies the stress field within the underlying crust with two main implications for caldera formation. First, tensile rupture at the Earth's surface is favored at the periphery, which enables ring fault formation. Second, edifice formation amplifies the amount of pressure decrease occurring within a magma reservoir before the eruption stops. Taking into account both of these effects, caldera formation can be initiated during a central eruption of a pre-existing volcano even when assuming elastic behaviour for the surrounding crust. Providing the roof aspect ratio is small enough, conditions for caldera formation by reservoir withdrawal can be reached whatever the reservoir shape is. However ring fault initiation is easier for laterally elongated reservoirs.
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  • 69
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-22
    Beschreibung: During summer 2006 eddy correlation CO2 fluxes were measured in the Greenland Sea using a novel system set-up with two shrouded LICOR-7500 detectors. One detector was used exclusively to determine, and allow the removal of, the bias on CO2 fluxes due to sensor motion. A recently published correction method for the CO2-H2O cross-correlation was applied to the data set. We show that even with shrouded sensors the data require significant correction due to this cross-correlation. This correction adjusts the average CO2 flux by an order of magnitude from −6.7 × 10−2 mol m−2 day−1 to −0.61 × 10−2 mol m−2 day−1, making the corrected fluxes comparable to those calculated using established parameterizations for transfer velocity.
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  • 70
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-23
    Beschreibung: Using projections from two coupled climate models (HadCM3C and HadGEM2-AO), we consider the effect on 21st century sea-level rise (SLR) of mitigation policies relative to a scenario of business-as-usual (BAU). Around a third of the global-mean SLR over the century is avoided by a mitigation scenario under which global-mean near surface air temperature stabilises close to the Copenhagen Accord limit of a 2°C increase. Under BAU (a variant of the A1B scenario) the model-averaged projected SLR for 2090–2099 relative to 1980–1999 is 0.29 m–0.51 m (5%–95% uncertainties from treatment of land-based ice melt); under mitigation (E1 scenario) it is 0.17 m–0.34 m. This reduction is primarily from reduced thermal expansion. The spatial patterns of regional SLR are fairly dissimilar between the models, but are qualitatively similar across scenarios for a particular model. An impacts model suggests that by the end of the 21st century and without upgrade in defences around 55% of the 84 million additional people flooded per year globally under BAU (from SLR alone) could be avoided under such mitigation. The above projections of SLR follow the methodology of the IPCC Fourth Assessment. We have, however, also conducted a sensitivity study of SLR and its impacts where the possibility of accelerated ice sheet dynamics is accounted for.
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  • 71
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-23
    Beschreibung: The 2010 Chile earthquake of Mw 8.8 generated a destructive tsunami in the near field that resulted in warnings across the Pacific. Numerical modeling shows trapping and amplification of the energy over the continental shelf and slope. A spectral analysis of the computed surface elevation reveals resonance oscillations with periods up to 129 min along the central Chile coast. The temporal and spectral data provides an explanation for the long-period waves recorded by DART buoys and the prolonged wave activities and belated impacts reported by residents and survey teams. The present study of the 2010 Chile tsunami together with those of the 2006 Kuril and 2009 Samoa tsunamis has directly associated shelf resonance with impacts on insular and continental coasts and provided a tool to identify at-risk localities in tsunami hazard assessment.
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  • 72
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-24
    Beschreibung: We present analysis of infrasonic signals produced by a large Earth-impacting fireball, believed to be among the most energetic instrumentally recorded during the last century that occurred on 8 October, 2009 over Indonesia. This extraordinary event, detected by 17 infrasonic stations of the global International Monitoring Network, generated stratospherically ducted infrasound returns at distances up to 17 500 km, the greatest range at which infrasound from a fireball has been detected since the 1908 Tunguska explosion. From these infrasonic records, we find the total source energy for this bolide as 8–67 kilotons of TNT equivalent explosive yield, with the favored best estimate near ∼50 kt. Global impact events of such energy are expected only once per decade and study of their impact effects can provide insight into the impactor threshold levels for ground damage and climate perturbations.
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  • 73
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-29
    Beschreibung: Inverted models of the deep mantle show a decorrelation between maps of shear VS and compressional VP wave velocities, an anti-correlation between the bulk sound velocity V$\phi$ and VS and a much larger variability of VS with respect to VP, expressed by large values of the ratio of their relative lateral variations. We carried out synthetic tests to verify if these features could be artifacts, explained by limits in tomographic resolution: synthetic data are calculated for an “input” model, and linearly inverted, as in tomography, to find an “output” model. Comparing the values of the aforementioned parameters for two different chemically homogeneous input models with the associated reconstructed output ones, we found that artifacts caused by realistic data noise and the nonuniform distribution of seismic sources and stations over the globe are not sufficient to introduce the features previously described. We confirm that compositional effects are required to explain them.
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  • 74
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-09
    Beschreibung: Canada's Queen Elizabeth Islands contain ∼14% of Earth's glacier and ice cap area. Snow accumulation on these glaciers is low and varies little from year to year. Changes in their surface mass balance are driven largely by changes in summer air temperatures, surface melting and runoff. Relative to 2000–2004, strong summer warming since 2005 (1.1 to 1.6°C at 700 hPa) has increased summer mean ice surface temperatures and melt season length on the major ice caps in this region by 0.8 to 2.2°C and 4.7 to 11.9 d respectively. 30–48% of the total mass lost from 4 monitored glaciers since 1963 has occurred since 2005. The mean rate of mass loss from these 4 glaciers between 2005 and 2009 (−493 kg m−2 a−1) was nearly 5 times greater than the 1963–2004 average. In 2007 and 2008, it was 7 times greater (−698 kg m−2 a−1). These changes are associated with a summer atmospheric circulation configuration that favors strong heat advection into the Queen Elizabeth Islands from the northwest Atlantic, where sea surface temperatures have been anomalously high.
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  • 75
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-09
    Beschreibung: Shrinking glaciers and snowpacks are reducing discharge in rivers that drain the central Rocky Mountain region – water that supports downstream societies and ecosystems of western North America. However, a new 5200-year record of Lake Athabasca water-level variations, which serves as a sensitive gauge of past changes in alpine-sourced river discharge, reveals that western Canadian society has developed during a rare period of unusually abundant water ‘subsidized’ by prior glacier expansion. As the ‘alpine water tap’ closes, much drier times are ahead. Future water availability is likely to become similar to the mid-Holocene when Lake Athabasca dropped 2–4 m below the twentieth-century mean. Regions dependent on high-elevation runoff (i.e., western North America) must prepare to cope with impending water scarcity of magnitude not yet experienced since European settlement.
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 76
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-11
    Beschreibung: Multi-decadal weakening trend of the equatorial Pacific easterly winds since 1960 has reversed after 1993. The trend reversal has induced cooling (shallow thermocline) trend in the equatorial western Pacific before 1993, followed by a warming (deep thermocline) trend from 1993 to the present. All available atmospheric reanalysis products corroborate the trend reversal during the two multi-decadal periods. The magnitudes of the multi-decadal trends of the easterly winds, however, differ among the reanalysis products. The trend reversals of regional ocean circulations are assessed using linear regressions between wind and transport anomalies in an eddy-permitting numerical model, suggesting that since 1993 the Indonesian Throughflow and the Leeuwin Current transports have also reversed their multi-decadal weakening trends.
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 77
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-14
    Beschreibung: Recent studies suggest that the overturning circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) region shows a weak sensitivity to overlying wind stress changes, due to balancing of changes in the eddy-induced and Eulerian mean transports. Using an eddy-permitting coupled climate model, we analyze the response of the ACC transport, and associated water mass subduction rates, in response to an idealized poleward shift and intensification of the westerlies. As in previous studies, we find a small increase in the net ACC transport, and a poleward shift in the mean position of the ACC flow. However, the ACC is restructured, with the Subantarctic Front (SAF) and Polar Front (PF) branches shifting poleward by between 0.9° and 2.5° of latitude, resulting in a weaker ACC flow in both the SAF and PF zones. The wind stress anomaly drives a stronger northward Ekman transport of cool surface waters, deepening the winter mixed layer and causing a 12.7 Sv increase in the subduction of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) north of the SAF zone and a 6.5 Sv increase in the subduction of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) within the SAF and PF zones. Our results suggest that changes in the wind stress restructure the Southern Ocean large-scale circulation, including the flow of the ACC in its primary jets, and that this affects the formation rates of SAMW and AAIW in this complex region.
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  • 78
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-17
    Beschreibung: The impact of the tropical oceanic forcing on the East Asian winter-to-early spring climate is investigated by implementing the pacemaker technique in the slab mixed-layer version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM2.1 atmospheric general circulation model. The results demonstrate that oceanic forcing from the deep tropical eastern Pacific (DTEP) can instigate the Pacific-East Asia teleconnection and that the Philippine Sea anticyclone and the associated air-sea interaction are crucial for the realization of the impact of the teleconnection over East Asia. Comparison among cases in which the pace-maker is designated over the DTEP region, DTEP plus the Indian Ocean, and the whole tropical oceans indicates that tropical oceanic forcing outside of the Niño regions can also exert significant influence on East Asian climate. As a result, a total of 30% of the variance of the East Asian precipitation index can be accounted for by the tropical oceanic forcing.
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  • 79
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-17
    Beschreibung: The prevailing wet climate in the western Amazon is not favorable to the natural occurrence of fires. Nevertheless, the current process of clearing of humid forests for agriculture and cattle ranching has increased the vulnerability of the region to the spread of fires. Using meteorological stations precipitation and the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Active-Fires (AF) during 2000–2009, we show that fire anomalies vary closely with July-August-September (JAS) precipitation variability as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The precipitation variability is, in turn, greatly determined by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). We develop a linear regression model to relate local fire activity to an index of the NTA-SST. By using seasonal forecasts of SST from a coupled model, we are able to predict anomalous JAS fire activity as early as April. We applied the method to predict the severe 2010 JAS season, which indicated strongly positive seasonal fire anomalies within the 95% prediction confidence intervals in most western Amazon. The spatial distribution of predicted SPI was also in accordance with observed precipitation anomalies. This three months lead time precipitation and fire prediction product in the western Amazon could help local decision makers to establish an early warning systems or other appropriate course of action before the fire season begins.
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  • 80
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-24
    Beschreibung: Fluctuations in the positioning of major ocean currents can influence ecosystem dynamics, but previously the technology has been lacking to make direct observational assessments. Here, we test the hypothesis that positioning of the North Pacific Current (NPC) is related to biological attributes of the central-northern California Current Ecosystem (CCE). To test this hypothesis we use newly available data from the Argo array and compare it with a suite of well-known ecosystem indicators over 6 years, 2002 through 2007. We found increased biomass and productivity when the NPC was shifted poleward, and suggest that positioning influences advective transport of nutrients and perhaps key planktonic organisms from the sub-arctic domain thereby enhancing mid to upper trophic level species. This study is significant because climate change is predicted to cause poleward shifts in the westerlies that drive ocean currents and positioning of large marine gyre systems. Rather than reducing ecosystem productivity, poleward shifts in positioning of the NPC may be beneficial for many species of the central-northern CCE.
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 81
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-28
    Beschreibung: We assess the vertical distribution of cloud feedbacks in coupled climate models, taking care to distinguish between cloud feedbacks and a change in cloud forcing. We show that the effect of cloud changes on the longwave fluxes provides a strong positive feedback that is broadly consistent across models. In contrast, the effect of cloud changes on the shortwave fluxes ranges from a modest negative to a strong positive feedback, and is responsible for most of the intermodel spread in net cloud feedback. The feedback from high clouds is positive in all models, and is consistent with that anticipated by the Proportionately Higher Anvil Temperature hypothesis over the tropics. In contrast, low cloud cover is responsible for roughly three-quarters of the difference in global mean net cloud feedback among models, with the largest contributions from regions associated with low-level subtropical marine cloud systems.
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  • 82
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-06-28
    Beschreibung: We present a mechanism for wind-driven sea ice export from the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait for the period 1979–2007, using the output of a high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model. By explicitly calculating the components of the atmospheric momentum budget, we show that not large scale synoptic forcing (LSC), but mainly thermal wind forcing (THW) causes the persistent northerly jet (the Greenland Sea Jet) over Fram Strait. The jet results from horizontal temperature gradients in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), set up between cold ABL-air over the sea ice covered western Greenland Sea and the relatively warmer ABL over the ice-free eastern Greenland Sea. From 1993 onwards we find a negative trend in THW, due to a stronger response to climate warming of the ABL over the sea ice covered ocean, compared to that over the ice free ocean. Although on average LSC is smaller than THW, year to year variations in LSC explain most of the interannual variability in the sea ice area flux through Fram Strait (R = 0.81). A small positive trend is found for LSC, partly compensating the decrease in THW in recent years.
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  • 83
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-11
    Beschreibung: Electromagnetic (EM) remote-sensing techniques are demonstrated to be sensitive to gas hydrate concentration and distribution and complement other resource assessment techniques, particularly seismic methods. To fully utilize EM results requires knowledge of the electrical properties of individual phases and mixing relations, yet little is known about the electrical properties of gas hydrates. We developed a pressure cell to synthesize gas hydrate while simultaneously measuring in situ frequency-dependent electrical conductivity (σ). Synthesis of methane (CH4) hydrate was verified by thermal monitoring and by post run cryogenic scanning electron microscope imaging. Impedance spectra (20 Hz to 2 MHz) were collected before and after synthesis of polycrystalline CH4 hydrate from polycrystalline ice and used to calculate σ. We determined the σ of CH4 hydrate to be 5 × 10−5 S/m at 0°C with activation energy (Ea) of 30.6 kJ/mol (−15 to 15°C). After dissociation back into ice, σ measurements of samples increased by a factor of ∼4 and Ea increased by ∼50%, similar to the starting ice samples.
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  • 84
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-11
    Beschreibung: Results from recent marine geophysical surveys offer a new perspective for characterizing the evolution processes of volcanic islands. In 2006, cruises FOREVER and ERODER 1 investigated the submarine flanks and the surrounding abyssal plain of La Réunion (Indian Ocean) to obtain for the first time a complete geophysical survey of the area. Combined analyses of these data reveal major differences in the evolution of the two emerged volcanoes, Piton des Neiges and Piton de la Fournaise. We show that debris avalanche deposits extend on the abyssal plain only offshore the active Piton de la Fournaise volcano attesting the occurrence of large flank-collapse events. The absence of such deposits offshore Piton des Neiges and the presence of compressive structures within the sedimentary unit below the edifice support a mechanism of slow deformation of this volcano, such as sliding or spreading. The slow deformation of Piton des Neiges has led to numerous secondary submarine slope instabilities and favored some unconfined turbidity flows which generated large sediment waves running downward all around the island. This study proposes a new model using the most complete marine data set available: slow deformation controls the evolution of Piton des Neiges whereas Piton de la Fournaise (formed on the flanks of a pre-existing edifice) experienced catastrophic, large flank-collapse events.
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  • 85
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-12
    Beschreibung: We have studied sulfuric acid aerosol nucleation in an atmospheric pressure reaction chamber using a 580 MeV electron beam to ionize the volume of the reaction chamber. We find a clear contribution from ion-induced nucleation and consider this to be the first unambiguous observation of the ion-effect on aerosol nucleation using a particle beam under conditions that resemble the Earth's atmosphere. By comparison with ionization using a gamma source we further show that the nature of the ionizing particles is not important for the ion-induced component of the nucleation. This implies that inexpensive ionization sources - as opposed to expensive accelerator beams - can be used for investigations of ion-induced nucleation.
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  • 86
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-12
    Beschreibung: Hydrocarbons released following the Deepwater Horizon (DH) blowout were found in deep, subsurface horizontal intrusions, yet there has been little discussion about how these intrusions formed. We have combined measured (or estimated) observations from the DH release with empirical relationships developed from previous lab experiments to identify the mechanisms responsible for intrusion formation and to characterize the DH plume. Results indicate that the intrusions originate from a stratification-dominated multiphase plume characterized by multiple subsurface intrusions containing dissolved gas and oil along with small droplets of liquid oil. Unlike earlier lab measurements, where the potential density in ambient water decreased linearly with elevation, at the DH site it varied quadratically. We have modified our method for estimating intrusion elevation under these conditions and the resulting estimates agree with observations that the majority of the hydrocarbons were found between 800 and 1200 m.
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  • 87
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-14
    Beschreibung: We present the first simultaneous observations of mesospheric neutral calcium, its ion, and electron density over Arecibo obtained on adjacent nights in December 2009. A good correlation is seen between Sporadic-E and ion layers while the neutrals have different characteristics. The measurements reveal that average abundances in electron densities and ions to be at a maximum on 9 December with values ∼4.8 × 109 electrons cm−2 and 3.4 × 107 ions cm−2, while those of the neutrals to be low, of the order of 9.7 × 106 atoms cm−2. The neutral abundance maximizes with values of 1.8 × 107 atoms cm−2 on 10 December, when both ions and electrons display weak layers with abundances almost 3 times lower than on the previous night. A significant correlation between the ions and neutrals indicates that sudden enhancements are caused by advection while a poor correlation is related to chemistry. This study reveals that the ion-neutral coupling is most efficient between 92 and 95 km. Also, the ion-to-neutral ratio is dependent on the strength of the ions or Sporadic-E and can exceed 3.0 during such events. We present evidence of neutralization of the ionized layers occurring on scales of a few tens of minutes for the first time. This agrees fairly well with the lifetimes of Ca+ against neutralization as predicted by recent ion-neutral reactions.
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  • 88
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-14
    Beschreibung: We perform a full dynamic inversion at low frequencies of the 16 December 2007 (Mw = 6.7) northern Chile earthquake that we model as a simple elliptical patch. We use two different stress-friction end-member models: asperities and barriers, finding similar results. The inversions are performed for strong motion data filtered between 0.02 and 0.5 Hz. Eleven geometrical and stress and friction parameters are inverted using the neighbourhood algorithm. The optimum solutions have relative errors lower than 0.21. The earthquake rupture has duration of less than 5 s and propagates at sub-shear speed. The rupture area is similar to that of the aftershock distribution and the seismic moment is 0.95 · 1019 Nm. We derive the friction law parameters from the models situated close to the optimum solution using a Monte Carlo technique. The results show a strong trade-off between applied stress and frictional resistance. We find that the distribution of friction models collapses into a finite zone of the space of moment and non-dimensional parameter $\kappa$. We conclude that it is possible to determine the friction law from near field seismograms, but there is a strong trade-off between friction and initial stress.
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  • 89
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-17
    Beschreibung: Supercell thunderstorms are known to occur in the outer rainbands of tropical cyclones (TCs), and these cells are of interest because they are occasionally tornadic. A series of multi-scale quasi-idealized TC simulations are used to study the development of outer rainband supercells. Within the environment of landfalling TCs, the sea-to-land transition of the rainbands is found to locally benefit supercell development onshore due in part to (1) enhanced surface-based destabilization during the day and (2) increased surface friction slowing and backing the low-level winds. Landfall time of day is shown to have a substantial impact on the average number, strength, and lifetime of the ensemble of simulated supercells. These idealized simulations represent a first attempt at controlled hypothesis tests for supercell and tornado ingredients within the context of a highly resolved parent TC.
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  • 90
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-17
    Beschreibung: New spacecraft data provide increasing evidence for a dynamic environment on present-day Mars. Exogenic processes such as impact cratering, mass wasting processes, and active dune migration have all been observed to modify the surface. No traces of current endogenic activity have been found yet, but some studies point to very localized volcanism in the last few millions of years. However, no systematic study of young volcanic surfaces had been performed so far. We present absolute model age determinations of plains volcanism on Mars as derived from impact crater size-frequency distributions. Extended areas in Tharsis, the largest volcano-tectonic region on Mars, have been resurfaced by lava flows in the last few tens of millions of years. We also present results on the rheologic properties of these lava flows, inferred from morphometric measurements. Yield strengths are in the range of 100–300 Pa, and viscosities reach values of 102 to 103 Pa s, indicating basaltic compositions. The results imply that Mars retained until recently, and probably still retains, enough internal heat to produce wide-spread plain-style volcanism, producing low-viscosity lava flows throughout large parts of Tharsis.
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  • 91
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-17
    Beschreibung: Tomographic images taken inside and outside a compaction band in a field specimen of Aztec sandstone are analyzed by using numerical methods such as graph theory, level sets, and hybrid lattice Boltzmann/finite element techniques. The results reveal approximately an order of magnitude permeability reduction within the compaction band. This is less than the several orders of magnitude reduction measured from hydraulic experiments on compaction bands formed in laboratory experiments and about one order of magnitude less than inferences from two-dimensional images of Aztec sandstone. Geometrical analysis concludes that the elimination of connected pore space and increased tortuosities due to the porosity decrease are the major factors contributing to the permeability reduction. In addition, the multiscale flow simulations also indicate that permeability is fairly isotropic inside and outside the compaction band.
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  • 92
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-18
    Beschreibung: Meteotsunamis are oceanic waves that possess tsunami-like characteristics but are meteorological in origin. In the western Mediterranean, travelling atmospheric pressure oscillations generate these long oceanic surface waves that can become amplified and produce strong seiche oscillations inside harbors. We analyze a June 2006 meteotsunami event in Ciutadella harbor (Menorca Island, Spain), studying numerically the phenomenon during its full life cycle, from the early atmospheric stages to the atmosphere-ocean resonant phase and the final highly amplified harbor oscillation. The Weather Research Forecast (WRF) atmospheric model adequately reproduces the development of a convective nucleus and also reproduces the induced atmospheric pressure oscillations moving at a speed of 27 m/s. The oceanic response is studied using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), forced by the WRF pressure field. It shows an inverse barometer wave front in the open ocean progressively amplified through resonant interactions in the different shelf and coastal regions. The predictive capability of this new WRF/ROMS modeling approach is then discussed.
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  • 93
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-18
    Beschreibung: HF radar measurements in the German Bight and their consistency with other available observations were analyzed. First, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the radial component of the surface current measured by one radar was performed. Afterwards, Neural Networks (NNs) were trained to now- and forecast the first five EOFs from tide gauge measurements. The inverse problem, i.e., to forecast a sea level from these EOFs was also solved using NNs. For both problems, the influence of wind measurements on the nowcast/forecast accuracy was quantified. The forecast improves if HF radar data are used in combination with wind data. Analysis of the upscaling potential of HF radar measurements demonstrated that information from one radar station in the German Bight is representative of an area larger than the observational domain and could contribute to correcting information from biased observations or numerical models.
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  • 94
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-18
    Beschreibung: Polarimetric SAR decomposition parameters, average alpha angle ($\overline{\alpha}$) and entropy (H) are estimated for oil-slick contaminated sea surfaces and slick-free conditions using a RADARSAT-2 quad-polarization SAR image. The values of H and $\overline{\alpha}$ within oil slick areas are significantly higher than those of the ambient sea surface, indicating the dominance of Bragg scattering for the slick-free ocean and non-Bragg scattering for the oil-slick area. In land classification, the conformity coefficient (μ) is often used to discriminate surface scattering with double-bounce or volume scattering. Based on this rationale, we also develop a method using μ as a logical scalar descriptor to map oil slicks under low-to-moderate wind conditions. The proposed method is assessed using a RADARSAT-2 quad-polarization SAR image of oil slicks in the Gulf of Mexico. Analysis shows that when μ is positive the sea surface is slick-free, whereas μ is negative for oil-slick areas. This method provides a simple and effective mapping technique for oil slick detection.
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  • 95
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-18
    Beschreibung: Okmok volcano erupted on July 12, 2008, following an 11-year hiatus. Detailed inspection of the syn-eruptive seismograms revealed the presence of an ultra long-period mode at a frequency of 1.7 mHz, which is not a characteristic of the background seismic noise at Okmok. Data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and National Aeronautical and Space Administration Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors displayed the propagation of a vigorous ash-and-steam plume up to about 17 km above sea level. We suggest that the observed ultra long-period signals represent the response of the seismometer to changes in gravity associated with buoyancy oscillations set off in the lower atmosphere above Okmok by the emplacement of the eruption column. Calculations based on simple modeling of these effects allowed estimation of peak atmospheric pressure perturbations associated with the eruption of less than 1 mbar.
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  • 96
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-19
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 97
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-19
    Beschreibung: Geothermal energy offers clean, renewable, reliable electric power with no need for grid-scale energy storage, yet its use has been constrained to the few locations worldwide with naturally high geothermal heat resources and groundwater availability. We present a novel approach with the potential to permit expansion of geothermal energy utilization: heat extraction from naturally porous, permeable formations with CO2 as the injected subsurface working fluid. Fluid-mechanical simulations reveal that the significantly higher mobility of CO2, compared to water, at the temperature/pressure conditions of interest makes CO2 an attractive heat exchange fluid. We show numerically that, compared to conventional water-based and engineered geothermal systems, the proposed approach provides up to factors of 2.9 and 5.0, respectively, higher geothermal heat energy extraction rates. Consequently, more regions worldwide could be economically used for geothermal electricity production. Furthermore, as the injected CO2 is eventually geologically sequestered, such power plants would have negative carbon footprints.
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  • 98
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-19
    Beschreibung: Based on the optimality principle (that the global energy expenditure rate is at its minimum for a given landscape under steady state conditions) and calculus of variations, we have derived new governing equations for describing steady-state optimal landscapes. Other than building on the well-established Manning's equation, this work does not rely on any empirical relationships (such as those relating hydraulic parameters to local slopes). Using additional constraints, we also theoretically demonstrate that discharge is a power function of local slope, which is consistent with field data and previous studies.
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  • 99
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-19
    Beschreibung: Llaima volcano, Chile, is a typical basaltic-to-andesitic stratovolcano in the southcentral Andes. Llaima had at least four explosive eruptions in the decade 2000 – 2010, however little is known about the physical processes and magma storage at this volcano. In this study we present an InSAR deformation field at Llaima from 2003 – 2008, covering both the post-eruptive and syn-eruptive periods. The satellite InSAR data are significantly affected by environmental decorrelation due to steep topography, snow and vegetation; because of this, we applied a model-assisted phase unwrapping approach. The analysis of these data suggests two main deformation episodes: subsidence associated with the post-eruptive period, and uplift associated with the syn-eruptive period. Maximum summit subsidence and uplift are ∼10 cm and ∼8 cm, respectively. Through inverse modeling of both periods, a deflating and inflating magma body can be inferred, located at a depth of 4 – 12 km, subject to a volume decrease of 10 – 46 × 106 m3 during the subsidence period, followed by a volume increase of 6 – 20 × 106 m3 during the uplift period. Therefore, this study presents the first evidence of magma-driven deformation at Llaima volcano, and suggests that eruption periods are associated with the inflation and deflation of a deep magma body that can be monitored by using space geodesy.
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  • 100
    Publikationsdatum: 2011-05-19
    Beschreibung: Recent advances in the compilation of the climate science databases, derived from observations and model simulations, help in estimating trends and variability of current and past atmospheric conditions. However, an exponential increase in the amount of information limits its comprehension. In this paper we present a simple diagnostic, named as “volume variability”, that allows for analysis of multidimensional fields of climate variables. The simplicity inherent in the new diagnostic, calculated as a product of variances along a set of directions, and its transparent interpretation thereof will enable its use as a metric for the quick and easy comparison of the 3D time series of models and observations. Using this diagnostic, we explore the evolution of the temperature and geopotential height fields over the Southern Hemisphere Cap region by way of four reanalysis systems.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Digitale ISSN: 1944-8007
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Wiley im Namen von American Geophysical Union (AGU).
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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