ALBERT

Description: The evaluation of potential landslides in mountain areas is a very complex process. Currently, event understanding is scarce due to information limitations. Identifying the whole chain of events is not a straightforward task, and the impacts of mass-wasting processes depend on the conditions downstream of the origin. In this paper, we present an example that illustrates the complexities in the evaluation of the chain of events that may lead to a natural disaster. On 16 December 2017, a landslide occurred in the Yelcho mountain range (southern Chile). In that event, 7 million m3 of rocks and soil fell on the Yelcho glacier, depositing 2 million m3 on the glacier terminal, and the rest continued downstream, triggering a mudflow that hit Villa Santa Lucía in Chilean Patagonia and killing 22 people. The complex event was anticipated in the region by the National Geological and Mining Survey (Sernageomin in Spanish). However, the effects of the terrain characteristics along the run-out area were more significant than anticipated. In this work, we evaluate the conditions that enabled the mudflow that hit Villa Santa Lucía. We used the information generated by Sernageomin's professionals after the mudflow. We carried out geotechnical tests to characterize the soil. We simulated the mudflow using two hydrodynamic programs (r.avaflow and Flo-2D) that can handle the rheology of the water–soil mixture. Our results indicate that the soil is classified as volcanic pumices. This type of soil can be susceptible to the collapse of the structure when subjected to shearing (molding), flowing as a viscous liquid. From the numerical modeling, we concluded that r.avaflow performs better than Flo-2D. The mudflow was satisfactorily simulated using a water content in the mixture ranging from 30 % to 40 %, which would have required a source of about 3 million m3 of water. Coupling the simulations and the soil tests that we performed, we estimated that in the area scoured by the mudflow, there were probably around 2 800 000 m3 of water within the soil. Therefore, the conditions of the valley were crucial to enhancing the impacts of the landslide. This result is relevant because it highlights the importance of evaluating the complete chain of events to map hazards. We suggest that in future hazard mapping, geotechnical studies in combination with hydrodynamic simulation should be included, in particular when human lives are at risk.

Description: In the framework of the EU Copernicus programme, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) is forecasting daily fire weather indices using its medium-range ensemble prediction system. The use of weather forecasts in place of local observations can extend early warnings by up to 1–2 weeks, allowing for greater proactive coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries. Using 1 year of pre-operational service in 2017 and the Fire Weather Index (FWI), here we assess the capability of the system globally and analyse in detail three major events in Chile, Portugal and California. The analysis shows that the skill provided by the ensemble forecast system extends to more than 10 d when compared to the use of mean climate, making a case for extending the forecast range to the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale. However, accurate FWI prediction does not translate into accuracy in the forecast of fire activity globally. Indeed, when all fires detected in 2017 are considered, including agricultural- and human-induced burning, high FWI values only occur in 50 % of the cases and are limited to the Boreal regions. Nevertheless for very large events which were driven by weather conditions, FWI forecasts provide advance warning that could be instrumental in setting up management and containment strategies.

Description: In the past decades, severe heat waves have frequently occurred in many parts of the world. These conspicuous heat waves exerted terrible influences on human health, society, the economy, agriculture, the ecosystem and so on. Based on observed daily temperatures in China, an integrated index of heat waves and extreme-temperature days was established involving the frequency, duration, intensity and scale of these events across large cities in China. Heat waves and extreme-temperature days showed an increasing trend in most regions except northwest China from 1955 to 2014. After the late 1980s, the increasing trend was more obvious than the decades before. The cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River were threatened by the most serious heat events in the past 60 years, especially Chongqing and Changsha. Due to the subtropical monsoon climate and special terrain, Chongqing experienced the most heat events in a long period of time. In particular, there was obvious fluctuation of hot years in 31 cities, which did not continuously rise with global warming; 21 cities mainly located in the eastern and southern regions of China had an obvious rising trend; eight cities had a clear declining trend which was mainly distributed in the western and northern regions of China; and there were no extreme-temperature days in Kunming and Lhasa in the past 60 years. The study revealed an obvious differentiation of heat events for 31 cities under climate change; heat threat in most cities is increasing but declining or remaining unchanged in the other cities. The trend is likely to intensify with global warming.

Description: Storm tides are a major hazard for the German North Sea coasts. For coastal protection and economic activities, planning information on the probability and magnitude of extreme storm tides and their possible future changes is important. This study focuses on the most extreme events and examines whether they could have become more severe under slightly different conditions while still remaining within physical plausibility. In the face of a limited number of observational data on very severe events, an extensive set of model data is used to extract most extreme storm tide events for locations in the German Bight, in particular Borkum and the Ems estuary. The data set includes water levels and respective atmospheric conditions from a hindcast and future climate realizations without sea level rise describing today's and possible future conditions. A number of very severe events with water levels exceeding those measured near Borkum since 1906 are identified in the data set. A possible further amplification of the highest events is investigated by simulating these events for the North Sea with different phase lags between the astronomical tide given at the open model boundaries and the wind forcing. It is found that superposition of spring tide conditions, different timing of the astronomical high water and atmospheric conditions during the highest storm event would cause an enhancement of the highest water level up to about 50 cm. The water levels of the two highest events from the data set are used to analyse the effects in the Ems estuary using a high-resolution model of the German Bight. Additionally, the influences of an extreme river runoff and of sea level rise are studied. The extreme river runoff of 1200 m3 s−1 increases the highest water levels by several decimetres in the narrow upstream part of the Ems estuary. This effect diminishes downstream. The sea level rise increases the water level in the downstream part of the Ems estuary by the amount applied at the model boundary to the North Sea. In the upstream part, its influence on the water level decreases. This study may serve as a first step towards an impact assessment for severe storm tides and towards implications for coastal zone management in times of climate change.

Description: Snow instability tests provide valuable information regarding the stability of the snowpack. Test results are key data used to prepare public avalanche forecasts. However, to include them into operational procedures, a quantitative interpretation scheme is needed. Whereas the interpretation of the rutschblock test (RB) is well established, a similar detailed classification for the extended column test (ECT) is lacking. Therefore, we develop a four-class stability interpretation scheme. Exploring a large data set of 1719 ECTs observed at 1226 sites, often performed together with a RB in the same snow pit, and corresponding slope stability information, we revisit the existing stability interpretations and suggest a more detailed classification. In addition, we consider the interpretation of cases when two ECTs were performed in the same snow pit. Our findings confirm previous research, namely that the crack propagation propensity is the most relevant ECT result and that the loading step required to initiate a crack is of secondary importance for stability assessment. The comparison with the RB showed that the ECT classifies slope stability less reliably than the RB. In some situations, performing a second ECT may be helpful when the first test did not indicate rather unstable or stable conditions. Finally, the data clearly show that false-unstable predictions of stability tests outnumber the correct-unstable predictions in an environment where overall unstable locations are rare.

Description: On 5 March 2019 12:00 UTC, an atmospheric river (AR) made landfall in Santa Barbara, CA, and lasted approximately 30 h. While ARs are typical winter storms in the area, the extraordinary number of lightning strikes observed near coastal Santa Barbara made this event unique. The Earth Networks Global Lightning Network (ENGLN) detected 8811 lightning flashes around southern California (30 to 37∘ N and 130 to 115∘ W) in 24 h, which is roughly 2500 times the climatological flash rate in this region. The AR-related thunderstorm resulted in approximately 23.18 mm accumulated precipitation in 30 h in Santa Barbara. This article examines synoptic and mesoscale features conducive to this electrifying AR event, characterizing its uniqueness in the context of previous March events that made landfall in the region. We show that this AR was characterized by an unusual deep moist layer extending from the low to mid-troposphere in an environment with potential instability and low-elevation freezing level. Despite the negligible convective available potential energy (CAPE) during the peak of the thunderstorm near Santa Barbara, the lifting of layers with high water vapor content in the AR via warm conveyor belt and orographic forcing in a convectively unstable atmosphere resulted in the formation of hail and enhanced electrification.

Description: A number of seaside communities in Troms, northern Norway, are vulnerable to sudden weather-induced access disruptions due to high-impact weather and dependency on one or few roads. In this paper we study changes in winter weather known to potentially cause access disruptions in Troms, for the present climate (1958–2017) and two future periods (2041–2070; 2071–2100). We focus on climate indices associated with snow avalanches and weather that may lead to for example slippery road conditions. In two focus areas, the most important results show larger snow amounts now compared to 50 years ago, and heavy snowfall has become more intense and frequent. This trend is expected to turn in the future, particularly at low elevations where snow cover during winter might become a rarity by 2100. Strong snow drift, due to a combination of snowfall and wind speed, has slightly increased in the two focus areas, but a strong decrease is expected in the future due to less snow. Events of heavy rain during winter are rather infrequent in the present winter climate of Troms, but we show that these events are likely to occur much more often in all regions in the future.

Description: Statistical detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1757-1761, 2015 Author(s): M. Raschke In this communication, I improve the detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence. For this purpose, the generalized Poisson distribution and the Bayesian information criterion are introduced; the latter is used for statistical model selection. Moreover, I replace the frequently used dispersion statistics by an over-dispersion parameter which does not depend on the considered return period of storm events. These models and methods are applied in order to properly detect the over-dispersion in winter storm data for Germany, carrying out a joint estimation of the distribution models for different samples.

Description: Impacts on wave-driven harbour agitation due to climate change in Catalan ports Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1695-1709, 2015 Author(s): J. P. Sierra, M. Casas-Prat, M. Virgili, C. Mösso, and A. Sánchez-Arcilla The objective of the present work is to analyse how changes in wave patterns due to the effect of climate change can affect harbour agitation (oscillations within the port due to wind waves). The study focuses on 13 harbours located on the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean) using a methodology with general applicability. To obtain the patterns of agitation, a Boussinesq-type model is used, which is forced at the boundaries by present/future offshore wave conditions extracted from recently developed high-resolution wave projections in the NW Mediterranean. These wave projections were obtained with the SWAN model forced by present/future surface wind fields projected, respectively, by five different combinations of global and regional circulation models (GCMs and RCMs) for the A1B scenario. The results show a general slight reduction in the annual average agitation for most of the ports, except for the northernmost and southernmost areas of the region, where a slight increase is obtained. A seasonal analysis reveals that the tendency to decrease is accentuated in winter. However, the inter-model variability is large for both the winter and the annual analysis. Conversely, a general increase with a larger agreement among models is found during summer, which is the period with greater activity in most of the studied ports (marinas). A qualitative assessment of the factors of variability seems to indicate that the choice of GCM tends to affect the spatial pattern, whereas the choice of RCM induces a more homogeneous bias over the regional domain.

Description: Towards predictive data-driven simulations of wildfire spread – Part II: Ensemble Kalman Filter for the state estimation of a front-tracking simulator of wildfire spread Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1721-1739, 2015 Author(s): M. C. Rochoux, C. Emery, S. Ricci, B. Cuenot, and A. Trouvé This paper is the second part in a series of two articles, which aims at presenting a data-driven modeling strategy for forecasting wildfire spread scenarios based on the assimilation of the observed fire front location and on the sequential correction of model parameters or model state. This model relies on an estimation of the local rate of fire spread (ROS) as a function of environmental conditions based on Rothermel's semi-empirical formulation, in order to propagate the fire front with an Eulerian front-tracking simulator. In Part I, a data assimilation (DA) system based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was implemented to provide a spatially uniform correction of biomass fuel and wind parameters and thereby, produce an improved forecast of the wildfire behavior (addressing uncertainties in the input parameters of the ROS model only). In Part II, the objective of the EnKF algorithm is to sequentially update the two-dimensional coordinates of the markers along the discretized fire front, in order to provide a spatially distributed correction of the fire front location and thereby, a more reliable initial condition for further model time-integration (addressing all sources of uncertainties in the ROS model). The resulting prototype data-driven wildfire spread simulator is first evaluated in a series of verification tests using synthetically generated observations; tests include representative cases with spatially varying biomass properties and temporally varying wind conditions. In order to properly account for uncertainties during the EnKF update step and to accurately represent error correlations along the fireline, it is shown that members of the EnKF ensemble must be generated through variations in estimates of the fire's initial location as well as through variations in the parameters of the ROS model. The performance of the prototype simulator based on state estimation (SE) or parameter estimation (PE) is then evaluated by comparison with data taken from a reduced-scale controlled grassland fire experiment. Results indicate that data-driven simulations are capable of correcting inaccurate predictions of the fire front location and of subsequently providing an optimized forecast of the wildfire behavior at future lead times. The complementary benefits of both PE and SE approaches, in terms of analysis and forecast performance, are also emphasized. In particular, it is found that the size of the assimilation window must be specified adequately with the persistence of the model initial condition and/or with the temporal and spatial variability of the environmental conditions in order to track sudden changes in wildfire behavior. The present prototype data-driven forecast system is still at an early stage of development. In this regard, this preliminary investigation provides valuable information on how to combine observations with a fire spread model in an efficient way, as well as guidelines to design the future system evolution in order to meet the operational requirements of wildfire spread monitoring.

Description: A method for predicting the factor of safety of an infinite slope based on the depth ratio of the wetting front induced by rainfall infiltration Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1835-1849, 2015 Author(s): B.-G. Chae, J.-H. Lee, H.-J. Park, and J. Choi Most landslides in Korea are classified as shallow landslides with an average depth of less than 2 m. These shallow landslides are associated with the advance of a wetting front in the unsaturated soil due to rainfall infiltration, which results in an increase in water content and a reduction in the matric suction in the soil. Therefore, this study presents a modified equation of infinite slope stability analysis based on the concept of the saturation depth ratio to analyze the slope stability change associated with the rainfall on a slope. A rainfall infiltration test in unsaturated soil was performed using a column to develop an understanding of the effect of the saturation depth ratio following rainfall infiltration. The results indicated that the rainfall infiltration velocity due to the increase in rainfall in the soil layer was faster when the rainfall intensity increased. In addition, the rainfall infiltration velocity tends to decrease with increases in the unit weight of soil. The proposed model was applied to assess its feasibility and to develop a regional landslide susceptibility map using a geographic information system (GIS). For that purpose, spatial databases for input parameters were constructed and landslide locations were obtained. In order to validate the proposed approach, the results of the proposed approach were compared with the landslide inventory using a ROC (receiver operating characteristics) graph. In addition, the results of the proposed approach were compared with the previous approach used: a steady-state hydrological model. Consequently, the approach proposed in this study displayed satisfactory performance in classifying landslide susceptibility and showed better performance than the steady-state approach.

Description: Regional trends and controlling factors of fatal landslides in Latin America and the Caribbean Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1821-1833, 2015 Author(s): S. A. Sepúlveda and D. N. Petley A new data set of landslides that caused loss of life in Latin America and the Caribbean in the 10-year period from 2004 and 2013 inclusive has been compiled, providing new insight into the impact of landslides in this key part of the world. This data set indicates that in the 10-year period a total of 11 631 people lost their lives across the region in 611 landslides. The geographical distribution of the landslides is highly heterogeneous, with areas of high incidence in parts of the Caribbean (most notably Haiti), Central America, Colombia, and southeast Brazil. There is significant interannual variation in the number of landslides, with the El Niño/La Niña cycle emerging as a key control. Our analysis suggests that on a continental scale the mapped factors that best explain the observed distribution are topography, annual precipitation and population density. On a national basis we have compared the occurrence of fatality-inducing landslide occurrence with the production of locally authored research articles, demonstrating that there is a landslide research deficit in Latin America and the Caribbean. Understanding better the mechanisms, distribution causes and triggers of landslides in Latin America and the Caribbean must be an essential first step towards managing the hazard.

Description: Drought assessment in the Dongliao River basin: traditional approaches vs. generalized drought assessment index based on water resources systems Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1889-1906, 2015 Author(s): B. S. Weng, D. H. Yan, H. Wang, J. H. Liu, Z. Y. Yang, T. L. Qin, and J. Yin Drought is firstly a resource issue, and with its development it evolves into a disaster issue. Drought events usually occur in a determinate but a random manner. Drought has become one of the major factors to affect sustainable socioeconomic development. In this paper, we propose the generalized drought assessment index (GDAI) based on water resources systems for assessing drought events. The GDAI considers water supply and water demand using a distributed hydrological model. We demonstrate the use of the proposed index in the Dongliao River basin in northeastern China. The results simulated by the GDAI are compared to observed drought disaster records in the Dongliao River basin. In addition, the temporal distribution of drought events and the spatial distribution of drought frequency from the GDAI are compared with the traditional approaches in general (i.e., standard precipitation index, Palmer drought severity index and rate of water deficit index). Then, generalized drought times, generalized drought duration, and generalized drought severity were calculated by theory of runs. Application of said runs at various drought levels (i.e., mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought) during the period 1960–2010 shows that the centers of gravity of them all distribute in the middle reaches of Dongliao River basin, and change with time. The proposed methodology may help water managers in water-stressed regions to quantify the impact of drought, and consequently, to make decisions for coping with drought.

Description: Hydroelastic analysis of ice shelves under long wave excitation Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1851-1857, 2015 Author(s): T. K. Papathanasiou, A. E. Karperaki, E. E. Theotokoglou, and K. A. Belibassakis The transient hydroelastic response of an ice shelf under long wave excitation is analysed by means of the finite element method. The simple model, presented in this work, is used for the simulation of the generated kinematic and stress fields in an ice shelf, when the latter interacts with a tsunami wave. The ice shelf, being of large length compared to its thickness, is modelled as an elastic Euler-Bernoulli beam, constrained at the grounding line. The hydrodynamic field is represented by the linearised shallow water equations. The numerical solution is based on the development of a special hydroelastic finite element for the system of governing of equations. Motivated by the 2011 Sulzberger Ice Shelf (SIS) calving event and its correlation with the Honshu Tsunami, the SIS stable configuration is studied. The extreme values of the bending moment distribution in both space and time are examined. Finally, the location of these extrema is investigated for different values of ice shelf thickness and tsunami wave length.

Description: Pre-earthquake magnetic pulses Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1873-1880, 2015 Author(s): J. Scoville, J. Heraud, and F. Freund A semiconductor model of rocks is shown to describe unipolar magnetic pulses, a phenomenon that has been observed prior to earthquakes. These pulses are suspected to be generated deep in the Earth's crust, in and around the hypocentral volume, days or even weeks before earthquakes. Their extremely long wavelength allows them to pass through kilometers of rock. Interestingly, when the sources of these pulses are triangulated, the locations coincide with the epicenters of future earthquakes. We couple a drift-diffusion semiconductor model to a magnetic field in order to describe the electromagnetic effects associated with electrical currents flowing within rocks. The resulting system of equations is solved numerically and it is seen that a volume of rock may act as a diode that produces transient currents when it switches bias. These unidirectional currents are expected to produce transient unipolar magnetic pulses similar in form, amplitude, and duration to those observed before earthquakes, and this suggests that the pulses could be the result of geophysical semiconductor processes.

Description: Mediterranean cyclone characteristics related to precipitation occurrence in Crete, Greece Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1807-1819, 2015 Author(s): V. Iordanidou, A. G. Koutroulis, and I. K. Tsanis The characteristics of the cyclone tracks that caused precipitation events of variable intensity for the period 1979–2011 over the island of Crete are presented. The data set used for cyclone identification is the 0.5° × 0.5°, 30 years European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim mean sea-level pressure. Cyclone characteristics are calculated with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS scheme). Daily precipitation data from a dense gauging network over the island of Crete are also used for the classification of the precipitation events in terms of rain accumulation (intensity). Daily precipitation is classified in three categories and the associated cyclones are chosen according to their distance from Crete island. The seasonal and annual cycle of the physical characteristics of the cyclone tracks are investigated with respect to the cyclones' relative position to the island of Crete. It was found that cyclones affecting Crete most frequently approach from the western side of the island and the actual cyclone centers associated with precipitation events are usually located northwest and southeast of the Crete domain. Cyclone-induced rainfall increases in function to cyclones' depth, radius and propagation velocity increase as well as cyclones' pressure decrease. Spring cyclones that affect Crete with rainfall present lower pressures and higher cyclone propagation velocity in contrast to the ones associated with winter and autumn precipitation events. The examination of the relation between cyclone characteristics and precipitation occurrence provides valuable information related to forecasting potential and management of the water resources and the rainfall extremes.

Description: Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1711-1720, 2015 Author(s): Y. Krien, B. Dudon, J. Roger, and N. Zahibo Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100-year and 1000-year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC–SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40–60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but found to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows storm surge level maps to be obtained that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

Description: Hydrochemical characteristics of hot spring waters in the Kangding district related to the Lushan M S = 7.0 earthquake in Sichuan, China Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1149-1156, 2015 Author(s): Z. Chen, X. Zhou, J. Du, C. Xie, L. Liu, Y. Li, L. Yi, H. Liu, and Y. Cui Hydrogeochemistry of 10 hot springs in the Kangding district was investigated by analyzing cation and anion concentrations in the spring water. The water samples were collected in the 5 days after the Lushan M S = 7.0 earthquake, which occurred on 20 April 2013. The spring waters are classified into seven chemical types based on their hydrochemical compositions. Compared with hydrochemical data before the Lushan earthquake, concentrations of Ca 2+ , HCO 3 - and total dissolved solid (TDS) in water samples from the Guanding, Erdaoqiao, Gonghe, Erhaoying, Tianwanhe and Caoke springs significantly increased, which may be the result of a greater increase in groundwater from carbonate rocks, and water–carbonate rock interactions, enhanced by the increment of CO 2 . Concentrations of Na + , Cl - and SO 4 2- in water samples from the Guanding, Zheduotang, Xinxing and Gonghe springs decreased, indicating a dilution of shallow waters. Concentrations of Na + and SO 4 2- in water samples from the Erhaoying spring water increased, which may be attributed to water–granite interactions enhanced by H 2 S. The results indicated that hydrochemical components of spring water could be used as an effective indicator for earthquakes.

Description: Preface: Current advances in analysis, modelling and mitigation of the costs of natural hazards Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1157-1162, 2015 Author(s): H. Kreibich, L. M. Bouwer, and R. Schwarze

Description: How historical information can improve estimation and prediction of extreme coastal water levels: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1135-1147, 2015 Author(s): T. Bulteau, D. Idier, J. Lambert, and M. Garcin The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide-gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces the issue of outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others which increase the uncertainty on the results. In this study, we investigate how historical information, even partial, of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativise such outlying observations. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is developed to tackle this issue. We apply this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide-gauge measurements and 8 historical events, the analysis shows that (1) integrating historical information in the analysis greatly reduces statistical uncertainties on return levels (2) Xynthia's water level no longer appears as an outlier, (3) we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data until the end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data until the end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.

Description: READY: a web-based geographical information system for enhanced flood resilience through raising awareness in citizens Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1645-1658, 2015 Author(s): R. Albano, A. Sole, and J. Adamowski As evidenced by the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), flood management strategies in Europe have undergone a shift in focus in recent years. The goal of flood prevention using structural measures has been replaced by an emphasis on the management of flood risks using non-structural measures. One implication of this is that public authorities alone not only take responsibility for flood management. A broader range of stakeholders, who may personally experience the negative effects of flooding, also take on responsibility for protecting themselves. Therefore, it is vital that information concerning flood risks is conveyed to those who may be affected in order to facilitate the self-protection of citizens. Experience shows that problems persist even where efforts have been made to communicate flood risks. There is a need for the development of new tools that are able to rapidly disseminate flood-risk information to the general public. To be useful these tools must be able to present information relevant to the location of the user. Moreover, the content and design of the tool need to be adjusted to laypeople's needs. Dissemination and communication influence both people's access to and understanding of natural risk information. Such a tool could be a useful aid to effective management of flood risks. To address this gap, a web-based geographical information system (WebGIS) has been developed through the collaborative efforts of a group of scientists, hazard and risk analysts and managers, GIS analysts, system developers and communication designers. This tool, called "READY: Risk, Extreme Events, Adaptation, Defend Yourself", aims to enhance the general public knowledge of flood risk, making citizens more capable of responding appropriately during a flood event. The READY WebGIS has allowed for the visualization and easy querying of a complex hazard and risk database thanks to a high degree of interactivity and easily read maps. In this way, READY has enabled fast exploration of alternative flood scenarios or past calamitous events. Combined also with a system of graphic symbols designed ad hoc for communication of self-protection behaviours, it is believed READY could lead to an increase in citizen participation, informed discussion and consensus building. The platform has been developed for a site-specific application: the Basilicata region, Italy, has been selected as pilot application area. The goal of the prototype is to raise citizen awareness of flood risks and to build social capacity and enhanced resilience to flood events.

Description: Scenario-based numerical modelling and the palaeo-historic record of tsunamis in Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1763-1784, 2015 Author(s): G. Lamarche, S. Popinet, B. Pelletier, J. Mountjoy, J. Goff, S. Delaux, and J. Bind We investigated the tsunami hazard in the remote French territory of Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific, using the Gerris flow solver to produce numerical models of tsunami generation, propagation and inundation. Wallis consists of the inhabited volcanic island of Uvéa that is surrounded by a lagoon delimited by a barrier reef. Futuna and the island of Alofi form the Horn Archipelago located ca. 240 km east of Wallis. They are surrounded by a narrow fringing reef. Futuna and Alofi emerge from the North Fiji Transform Fault that marks the seismically active Pacific-Australia plate boundary. We generated 15 tsunami scenarios. For each, we calculated maximum wave elevation (MWE), inundation distance and expected time of arrival (ETA). The tsunami sources were local, regional and distant earthquake faults located along the Pacific Rim. In Wallis, the outer reef may experience 6.8 m-high MWE. Uvéa is protected by the barrier reef and the lagoon, but inundation depths of 2–3 m occur in several coastal areas. In Futuna, flow depths exceeding 2 m are modelled in several populated areas, and have been confirmed by a post-September 2009 South Pacific tsunami survey. The channel between the islands of Futuna and Alofi amplified the 2009 tsunami, which resulted in inundation distance of almost 100 m and MWE of 4.4 m. This first ever tsunami hazard modelling study of Wallis and Futuna compares well with palaeotsunamis recognised on both islands and observation of the impact of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami. The study provides evidence for the mitigating effect of barrier and fringing reefs from tsunamis.

Description: Predicting storm-triggered debris flow events: application to the 2009 Ionian Peloritan disaster (Sicily, Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1785-1806, 2015 Author(s): M. Cama, L. Lombardo, C. Conoscenti, V. Agnesi, and E. Rotigliano The main assumption on which landslide susceptibility assessment by means of stochastic modelling lies is that the past is the key to the future. As a consequence, a stochastic model able to classify past known landslide events should be able to predict a future unknown scenario as well. However, storm-triggered multiple debris flow events in the Mediterranean region could pose some limits on the operative validity of such an expectation, as they are typically resultant of a randomness in time recurrence and magnitude and a great spatial variability, even at the scale of small catchments. This is the case for the 2007 and 2009 storm events, which recently hit north-eastern Sicily with different intensities, resulting in largely different disaster scenarios. The study area is the small catchment of the Itala torrent (10 km 2 ), which drains from the southern Peloritani Mountains eastward to the Ionian Sea, in the territory of the Messina province (Sicily, Italy). Landslides have been mapped by integrating remote and field surveys, producing two event inventories which include 73 debris flows, activated in 2007, and 616 debris flows, triggered by the 2009 storm. Logistic regression was applied in order to obtain susceptibility models which utilize a set of predictors derived from a 2 m cell digital elevation model and a 1 : 50 000 scale geologic map. The research topic was explored by performing two types of validation procedures: self-validation, based on the random partition of each event inventory, and chrono-validation, based on the time partition of the landslide inventory. It was therefore possible to analyse and compare the performances both of the 2007 calibrated model in predicting the 2009 debris flows (forward chrono-validation), and vice versa of the 2009 calibrated model in predicting the 2007 debris flows (backward chrono-validation). Both of the two predictions resulted in largely acceptable performances in terms of fitting, skill and reliability. However, a loss of performance and differences in the selected predictors arose between the self-validated and the chrono-validated models. These are interpreted as effects of the non-linearity in the domain of the trigger intensity of the relationships between predictors and slope response, as well as in terms of the different spatial paths of the two triggering storms at the catchment scale.

Description: Review Article: Atmospheric conditions inducing extreme precipitation over the eastern and western Mediterranean Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 15, 2525-2544, 2015 Author(s): U. Dayan, K. Nissen, and U. Ulbrich This review discusses published studies of heavy rainfall events over the Mediterranean Basin, combining them in a more general picture of the dynamic and thermodynamic factors and processes that produce heavy rain storms. It distinguishes the western and eastern Mediterranean in order to point out specific regional peculiarities. The crucial moisture for developing intensive convection over these regions can be originated not only from the adjacent Mediterranean Sea but also from distant upwind sources. Transport from remote sources is usually in the mid-tropospheric layers and associated with specific features and patterns of the larger-scale circulations. The synoptic systems (tropical and extratropical) that account for most of the major extreme precipitation events and the coupling of circulation and extreme rainfall patterns are presented. Heavy rainfall over the Mediterranean Basin is caused at times in concert by several atmospheric processes working at different atmospheric scales, such as local convection, upper synoptic-scale-level troughs, and mesoscale convective systems. Under tropical air-mass intrusions, convection generated by static instability seems to play a more important role than synoptic-scale vertical motions. Locally, the occurrence of torrential rains and their intensity is dependent on factors such as temperature profiles and implied instability, atmospheric moisture, and lower-level convergence.

Description: Climate change adaptation frameworks: an evaluation of plans for coastal Suffolk, UK Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 15, 2511-2524, 2015 Author(s): J. Armstrong, R. Wilby, and R. J. Nicholls This paper asserts that three principal frameworks for climate change adaptation can be recognised in the literature: scenario-led (SL), vulnerability-led (VL) and decision-centric (DC) frameworks. A criterion is developed to differentiate these frameworks in recent adaptation projects. The criterion features six key hallmarks as follows: (1) use of climate model information; (2) analysis of metrics/units; (3) socio-economic knowledge; (4) stakeholder engagement; (5) adaptation of implementation mechanisms; (6) tier of adaptation implementation. The paper then tests the validity of this approach using adaptation projects on the Suffolk coast, UK. Fourteen adaptation plans were identified in an online survey. They were analysed in relation to the hallmarks outlined above and assigned to an adaptation framework. The results show that while some adaptation plans are primarily SL, VL or DC, the majority are hybrid, showing a mixture of DC/VL and DC/SL characteristics. Interestingly, the SL/VL combination is not observed, perhaps because the DC framework is intermediate and attempts to overcome weaknesses of both SL and VL approaches. The majority (57 %) of adaptation projects generated a risk assessment or advice notes. Further development of this type of framework analysis would allow better guidance on approaches for organisations when implementing climate change adaptation initiatives, and other similar proactive long-term planning.

Description: UAV-based urban structural damage assessment using object-based image analysis and semantic reasoning Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1087-1101, 2015 Author(s): J. Fernandez Galarreta, N. Kerle, and M. Gerke Structural damage assessment is critical after disasters but remains a challenge. Many studies have explored the potential of remote sensing data, but limitations of vertical data persist. Oblique imagery has been identified as more useful, though the multi-angle imagery also adds a new dimension of complexity. This paper addresses damage assessment based on multi-perspective, overlapping, very high resolution oblique images obtained with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). 3-D point-cloud assessment for the entire building is combined with detailed object-based image analysis (OBIA) of façades and roofs. This research focuses not on automatic damage assessment, but on creating a methodology that supports the often ambiguous classification of intermediate damage levels, aiming at producing comprehensive per-building damage scores. We identify completely damaged structures in the 3-D point cloud, and for all other cases provide the OBIA-based damage indicators to be used as auxiliary information by damage analysts. The results demonstrate the usability of the 3-D point-cloud data to identify major damage features. Also the UAV-derived and OBIA-processed oblique images are shown to be a suitable basis for the identification of detailed damage features on façades and roofs. Finally, we also demonstrate the possibility of aggregating the multi-perspective damage information at building level.

Description: Effects of soil settlement and deformed geometry on a historical structure Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1051-1059, 2015 Author(s): Y. Yardım and E. Mustafaraj Protecting the historical character of a valued structure during the assessment and damage repair process is a very challenging task for many engineers. Heritage protection is complicated by a lack of design details and restrictions on sample extraction needed to obtain accurate material properties and limited studies on the restoration of certain types of historical structures. This study aims to assess the effects of soil settlement on a structure's stress concentrations and the value of laser scanning techniques on structure analysis in obtaining correct data of settlement vs. deformation. Terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) data are used to analyse the 500-year-old historical structure of Naziresha's Mosque. The obtained TLS data allow an accurate definition of the imperfect geometry patterns lying on every side of the structure. The soil profile and general crack formation together with TLS measurement proves that the structure deformed toward the south façade, where a railway and motorway are also located. Stress concentration and mode period results have a considerable difference, which highlights earthquake vulnerability and failure mechanisms and changes the strategy of possible retrofitting.

Description: On a report that the 2012 M 6.0 earthquake in Italy was predicted after seeing an unusual cloud formation Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1061-1068, 2015 Author(s): J. N. Thomas, F. Masci, and J. J. Love Several recently published reports have suggested that semi-stationary linear-cloud formations might be causally precursory to earthquakes. We examine the report of Guangmeng and Jie (2013), who claim to have predicted the 2012 M 6.0 earthquake in the Po Valley of northern Italy after seeing a satellite photograph (a digital image) showing a linear-cloud formation over the eastern Apennine Mountains of central Italy. From inspection of 4 years of satellite images we find numerous examples of linear-cloud formations over Italy. A simple test shows no obvious statistical relationship between the occurrence of these cloud formations and earthquakes that occurred in and around Italy. All of the linear-cloud formations we have identified in satellite images, including that which Guangmeng and Jie (2013) claim to have used to predict the 2012 earthquake, appear to be orographic – formed by the interaction of moisture-laden wind flowing over mountains. Guangmeng and Jie (2013) have not clearly stated how linear-cloud formations can be used to predict the size, location, and time of an earthquake, and they have not published an account of all of their predictions (including any unsuccessful predictions). We are skeptical of the validity of the claim by Guangmeng and Jie (2013) that they have managed to predict any earthquakes.

Description: Land cover changes and forest landscape evolution (1985–2009) in a typical Mediterranean agroforestry system (high Agri Valley) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1201-1214, 2015 Author(s): T. Simoniello, R. Coluzzi, V. Imbrenda, and M. Lanfredi The present study focuses on the transformations of a typical Mediterranean agroforestry landscape of southern Italy (high Agri Valley – Basilicata region) that occurred over 24 years. In this period, the valuable agricultural and natural areas that compose such a landscape were subjected to intensive industry-related activities linked to the exploitation of the largest European onshore oil reservoir. Landsat imagery acquired in 1985 and 2009 were used to detect changes in forest areas and major land use trajectories. Landscape metrics indicators were adopted to characterize landscape structure and evolution of both the complex ecomosaic (14 land cover classes) and the forest/non-forest arrangement. Our results indicate a net increase of 11% of forest areas between 1985 and 2009. The major changes concern increase of all forest covers at the expense of pastures and grasses, enlargement of riparian vegetation, and expansion of artificial areas. The observed expansion of forests was accompanied by a decrease of the fragmentation levels likely due to the reduction of small glades that break forest homogeneity and to the recolonization of herbaceous areas. Overall, we observe an evolution towards a more stable configuration depicting a satisfactory picture of vegetation health.

Description: Internal structure of event layers preserved on the Andaman Sea continental shelf, Thailand: tsunami vs. storm and flash-flood deposits Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1181-1199, 2015 Author(s): D. Sakuna-Schwartz, P. Feldens, K. Schwarzer, S. Khokiattiwong, and K. Stattegger Tsunami, storm and flash-flood event layers, which have been deposited over the last century on the shelf offshore Khao Lak (Thailand, Andaman Sea), are identified in sediment cores based on sedimentary structures, grain size compositions, Ti / Ca ratios and 210 Pb activity. Individual offshore tsunami deposits are 12 to 30 cm in thickness and originate from the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. They are characterized by (1) the appearance of sand layers enriched in shells and shell debris and (2) the appearance of mud and sand clasts. Storm deposits found in core depths between 5 and 82 cm could be attributed to recent storm events by using 210 Pb profiles in conjunction with historical data of typhoons and tropical storms. Massive sand layers enriched in shells and shell debris characterize storm deposits. The last classified type of event layer represents reworked flash-flood deposits, which are characterized by a fining-upward sequence of muddy sediment. The most distinct difference between storm and tsunami deposits is the lack of mud and sand clasts, mud content and terrigenous material within storm deposits. Terrigenous material transported offshore during the tsunami backwash is therefore an important indicator to distinguish between storm and tsunami deposits in offshore environments.

Description: Development of high-resolution multi-scale modelling system for simulation of coastal-fluvial urban flooding Agnieszka Indiana Olbert, Joanne Comer, Stephen Nash, and Michael Hartnett Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-238,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) A novel nested flood model (MSN_Flood) is applied to simulate complex coastal-fluvial urban flooding in order to critically examine the model's capability to forecast evolution of urban inundation. The model demonstrates high accuracy of outputs without incurring the computational expense of high spatial resolution over the entire model domain. MSN_Flood provides full characteristics of water levels and flow regimes necessary for flood hazard identification and flood risk assessment.

Description: Comparison and validation of global and regional ocean forecasting systems for the South China Sea Xueming Zhu, Hui Wang, Guimei Liu, Charly Régnier, Xiaodi Kuang, Dakui Wang, Shihe Ren, Zhiyou Jing, and Marie Drévillon Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1639-1655, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1639-2016, 2016 This paper examined the performances of two operational ocean forecasting systems, Mercator Océan in France and SCSOFS in China, based on observed satellite and in situ data obtained in 2012. The comparison and validation are focused on the ocean circulations, the structures of temperature and salinity, and some mesoscale activities in the South China Sea. Finally, some recommendations have been proposed for both systems to improve their performances in the near future.

Description: Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain Jesica Tamara Castillo-Rodríguez, Ignacio Escuder-Bueno, Sara Perales-Momparler, and Juan Ramón Porta-Sancho Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1699-1718, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1699-2016, 2016 This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative flood risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The conducted research work aims at providing a framework for local flood risk analysis and to support risk-informed decision-making (e.g. urban planning and development, flood risk management, civil protection). This article shows the added value of a risk-informed perspective, applied to a real case study in Spain.

Description: Meteorological factors driven glacial till changing and the associated periglacial debris flows in Tianmo Valley, southeast Tibetan Plateau Mingfeng Deng, Ningsheng Chen, and Mei Liu Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-251,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Initiation of deris flows in Tianmo valley shows annual temperature spiked and glacier retreat quickly before the three debris flows, while they did not occur when glacier retreat is sharpest, resulting from the bared glacial till is frozen as the melting of internal ice lags behind glacial retreat. The activity of the glacial till can be enhanced by prolonged high air temperature. Finally, either rainfall or continuous percolation of ice ablation water flows can generate periglacial debris flows.

Description: Analysis of slope processes in the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain) by means of Cross Correlation Function applied to high frequency monitoring data Marco Mulas, Jordi Corominas, Alessandro Corsini, and Jose Moya Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-253,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) In this work, the Cross-Correlation Function is used in order to quantitatively investigate the time-lagged correlation between high frequency monitoring data on rainfall, piezometric and displacement with the objective to evidence hydro-mechanical processes in the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain). The analysis highlighted and constrained in time a dual triggering mechanism in which factors controlling movement change from the upper to the lower part of the landslide.

Description: Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators: application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards Maria Papathoma-Köhle Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1771-1790, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1771-2016, 2016 Two established methods for assessing the physical vulnerability of buildings to natural hazards (vulnerability indicators and vulnerability curves) are compared after beind applied at the same case study. The case study area is located in South Tyrol (Italy) and it is subject to debris flow hazard. The results indicate that both methods have advantages and disadvantages and should be used in combination rather than in isolation by practitioners.

Description: What if the 25 October 2011 event that struck Cinque Terre (Liguria) had happened in Genoa, Italy? Flooding scenarios, hazard mapping and damage estimation Francesco Silvestro, Nicola Rebora, Lauro Rossi, Daniele Dolia, Simone Gabellani, Flavio Pignone, Eva Trasforini, Roberto Rudari, Silvia De Angeli, and Cristiano Masciulli Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1737-1753, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1737-2016, 2016 During the autumn of 2011 two catastrophic, very intense rainfall events affected two different parts of the Liguria Region of Italy causing various flash floods. The first occurred in October and the second at the beginning of November. Both the events were characterized by very high rainfall intensities (〉 100 mm h −1 ) that persisted on a small portion of territory causing local huge rainfall accumulations (〉 400 mm 6 h −1 ). Two main considerations were made in order to set up this work. The first consideration is that various studies demonstrated that the two events had a similar genesis and similar triggering elements. The second very evident and coarse concern is that two main elements are needed to have a flash flood: a very intense and localized rainfall event and a catchment (or a group of catchments) to be affected. Starting from these assumptions we did the exercise of mixing the two flash flood ingredients by putting the rainfall field of the first event on the main catchment struck by the second event, which has its mouth in the biggest city of the Liguria Region: Genoa. A complete framework was set up to quantitatively carry out a “what if” experiment with the aim of evaluating the possible damages associated with this event. A probabilistic rainfall downscaling model was used to generate possible rainfall scenarios maintaining the main characteristics of the observed rainfall fields while a hydrological model transformed these rainfall scenarios in streamflow scenarios. A subset of streamflow scenarios is then used as input to a 2-D hydraulic model to estimate the hazard maps, and finally a proper methodology is applied for damage estimation. This leads to the estimation of the potential economic losses and of the risk level for the people that stay in the affected area. The results are interesting, surprising and in a way worrying: a rare but not impossible event (it occurred about 50 km away from Genoa) would have caused huge damages estimated between 120 and EUR 230 million for the affected part of the city of Genoa, Italy, and more than 17 000 potentially affected people.

Description: VISIR: technological infrastructure of an operational service for safe and efficient navigation in the Mediterranean Sea Gianandrea Mannarini, Giuseppe Turrisi, Alessandro D'Anca, Mario Scalas, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Francesco Palermo, Ivano Carluccio, Matteo Scuro, Sergio Cretì, Rita Lecci, Paola Nassisi, and Luca Tedesco Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1791-1806, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1791-2016, 2016 Safety and efficiency of navigation can be enhanced through a better situational awareness at sea. We designed and realized an operational infrastructure for providing the navigators with optimal routes through various devices: PC, tablets, and smartphones. Sea-state and wind forecasts are used as inputs. Both motor- and sailboat routes are addressed by VISIR.

Description: Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany" Fred Fokko Hattermann, Shaochun Huang, Olaf Burghoff, Peter Hoffmann, and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1617-1622, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1617-2016, 2016 We report that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in Germany in a future warmer climate. The general significance of the study is supported by the fact that the outcome of an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) was used as a climate driver for a hydrological model considering more than 3000 river basins in Germany.

Description: Mangrove forest against dyke-break-induced tsunami on rapidly subsiding coasts Hiroshi Takagi, Takahito Mikami, Daisuke Fujii, Miguel Esteban, and Shota Kurobe Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1629-1638, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1629-2016, 2016 Thin coastal dykes found in developing countries may suddenly collapse due to land subsidence, material ageing, earthquakes, a collision with vessels, etc. Such a failure could trigger a dyke-break-induced tsunami. To analyse the potential consequences of such a flooding event, a hydrodynamic model was created using the data from the authors' field surveys of a vulnerable coastal community in Jakarta. The countermeasure of using mangrove forest is also proposed to mitigate violent floods.

Description: Debris flow impact estimation on a rigid barrier Federico Vagnon and Andrea Segalini Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1691-1697, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1691-2016, 2016 This study has the aim of reviewing the dynamics of debris flow impact against rigid structures and providing a new simple formulation to predict peak thrust. The proposed equation differs from other formulations because it takes into account flow characteristics, material properties, and barrier dimensions. The developed model is sufficiently capable of predicting measured force during the laboratory tests.

Description: Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results Lara Mani, Paul D. Cole, and Iain Stewart Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1673-1689, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016, 2016 Here, we aim to better understand the potential for using video games in volcanic hazard education with at-risk communities. A study using a bespoke-designed video game – St. Vincent's Volcano – was trialled on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent in 2015. Preliminary data analysis demonstrates 94 % of study participants had an improved knowledge of volcanic hazards after playing the game, leading us to conclude that video games could be a logical progression for education and outreach activities.

Description: Simple and approximate upper-limit estimation of future precipitation return-values Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, Abdelkader Mezghani, and Anita V. Dyrrdal Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-229,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) We propose a strategy for quantifying the maximum effect a temperature change has on heavy precipitation amounts making use of the limited available sources of information: laws of physics, seasonal variations, mathematical estimation of probability, and large number of climate model results. An upper bound is estimated rather than most likely value.

Description: Partial reactivation of a huge deep-seated ancient rock slide: recognition, formation mechanism, and stability Minggao Tang, Qiang Xu, Yusheng Li, Runqiu Huang, Niek Rengers, and Xing Zhu Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1719-1735, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1719-2016, 2016 An important argument for the conclusion is the recognition of a regional compressive tectonic stress field in this area, which cannot lead to the formation of a fault graben, which needs a tensional tectonic stress field. Moreover, numerous unique geological features, sliding marks, and other relics of the ancient slide have been discovered in the field. A centrifuge model test shows that a deformation and failure process of "creep–crack–cut" and a type of "successive rotational rock slide" have occurred.

Description: Lightning risk assessment at a high spatial resolution using the resident sub-district scale: A case study in Beijing metropolitan areas Hai Bo Hu and Jing Xiao Li Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-231,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Lightning risk indexes identifying the potential number of dangerous lightning events (NDLEs) and ground sensitivity to lightning in resident sub-districts of Beijing metropolitan areas have been unprecedentedly estimated on a 5 m resolution grid. The gridded cloud to ground (CG) lightning stroke density was used in the NDLE calculation, on account of multiple contacts formed by CG lightning flash multiplicity. Meanwhile, in the NDLE estimates, the critical CG stroke gridded densities derived from the lightning location system (LLS) data were corrected for network detection efficiency (DE). This case study on resident sub-district indicates that the site-specific sensitivity to lightning, which is determined by the terrain factors related to lightning attachment, as well as lightning rod effects induced by nearby structures, differs greatly across types of underlying ground areas. The discrepancy of the NDLE which is the numerical product of sensitivity and CG stroke density, is predominated by the sensitivity on account of the relatively stationary CG stroke density in a resident sub-district scale. Conclusively, the visualization of lightning risk sensitivity and NDLE discrepancy in parts of a resident sub-district at high spatial resolution makes it convenient in risk reduction and risk control for lightning risk management.

Description: The unrest of the San Miguel volcano (El Salvador, Central America): installation of the monitoring network and observed volcano-tectonic ground deformation Alessandro Bonforte, Douglas Antonio Hernandez, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Louis Handal, Cecilia Polío, Salvatore Rapisarda, and Piergiorgio Scarlato Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1755-1769, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1755-2016, 2016 In this paper, we present the work done during an international cooperation between Italy and El Salvador, for implementing the multiparametric monitoring of the San Miguel volcano in El Salvador after its sudden unrest. In particular, the aim of this paper is to show and describe the installed geodetic network and to show, comment and interpret the very first detailed ground deformation data obtained on this volcano during an unrest period, useful for characterizing its unknown dynamics.

Description: Hydrodynamic modelling of coastal seas: the role of tidal dynamics in the Messina Strait, Western Mediterranean Sea Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Antonio Olita, Leopoldo Fazioli, Alberto Ribotti, Matteo Sinerchia, Costanza Tedesco, and Roberto Sorgente Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1553-1569, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1553-2016, 2016 This work explored the importance of considering the tidal dynamics when modelling the general circulation in the Messina Strait, a narrow passage connecting the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian Sea sub-basins in the Western Mediterranean Sea. The results highlight that tidal dynamics deeply impact the reproduction of the instantaneous and residual circulation pattern, waters thermohaline properties and transport dynamics both inside the Messina Strait and in the surrounding coastal and open waters.

Description: Heavy snow loads in Finnish forests respond regionally asymmetrically to projected climate change Ilari Lehtonen, Matti Kämäräinen, Hilppa Gregow, Ari Venäläinen, and Heli Peltola Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-184,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) We studied the impact of projected climate change on the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland. Although winters are projected to become milder over the whole of Finland, our results suggest than in eastern and northern Finland the risk may increase while in southern and western parts of the country it is projected to decrease. This indicates that there is increasing need to consider the potential of snow damage in forest management in eastern and northern Finland.

Description: Review article: Potential application of surface methods for the monitoring of organic matter dynamics in marine systems Galja Pletikapić and Nadica Ivošević DeNardis Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-178,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) We present the potential of non-invasive surface methods, the electrochemical method applied with atomic force microscopy imaging (AFM), and its application for monitoring needs undertaken in the Adriatic sea. Electrochemical approach enables simple and fast analysis of a large number of raw seawater samples due to the simultaneous differentiation of organic constituents in seawater. AFM allows direct visualization and structural organization of marine organic matter at nanometer scales.

Description: GPS-derived ground deformation (2005–2014) within the Gulf of Mexico region referred to a stable Gulf of Mexico reference frame Jiangbo Yu and Guoquan Wang Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1583-1602, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1583-2016, 2016 The study establishes the first local reference frame for the Gulf of Mexico region using the observations from 13 GNSS sites. The root mean square (RMS) of the velocities of the 13 reference stations achieves 0.2 mm yr −1 in the horizontal and 0.3 mm yr −1 in the vertical directions. Land subsidence, faulting, and salt dome activities in the Houston region, Mexico City, and the southeastern Louisiana region are discussed and compared.

Description: GIS analysis of effects of future Baltic sea level rise on the island of Gotland, Sweden Karin Ebert, Karin Ekstedt, and Jerker Jarsjö Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1571-1582, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1571-2016, 2016 Future sea level rise is inevitable. We investigate the effects of 2 m sea level rise on the island of Gotland, Sweden. In a multi-criteria analysis we analyze the quantity of infrastructure that will be inundated, and the effect of saltwater intrusion in wells. Almost 100 km 2 (3 %) of Gotland's land area will be inundated. Important touristic and nature values will be strongest affected. Well salinization will greatly increase. Administrative planning is needed to prepare for changes.

Description: TESSA: design and implementation of a platform for Situational Sea Awareness M. Scalas, P. Marra, L. Tedesco, R. Quarta, E. Cantoro, A. Tumolo, D. Rollo, and M. Spagnulo Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-166,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) This article describes the architecture of Sea Situational Awareness (SSA) platform, a major asset within "TESSA", an industrial research project funded by the Italian Ministry of Education and Research. The main aim of the platform is to collect, transform and provide forecast and observational data as information suitable for delivery across a variety of channels, like web and mobile; specifically, the ability to produce and provide forecast information suitable for creating SSA-enabled applications has been a critical driving factor when designing and evolving the whole architecture. Thus, starting from functional and performance requirements, the platform architecture is described in terms of its main building blocks and flows among them: front-end components that support end-user applications and map and data analysis components that allow for serving maps and querying data. Focus is directed to key aspects and decisions about the main issues faced, like interoperability, scalability, efficiency and adaptability, but it also considers insights about future works in this and similarly related subjects. Some analysis results are also provided in order to better characterize critical issues and related solutions.

Description: Hydrodynamic characterization of past flash-flood events and their associated hazards from dendrogeomorphological evidence in Caldera de Taburiente National Park (Canary Islands, Spain) Julio Garrote, Andrés Diez-Herrero, José M. Bodoque, María A. Perucha, Pablo Mayer, and Mar Genova Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-206,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) The paper shows a study assessing different flooding scenarios based on the height of scars in trees as indicators for peak discharge estimation in an ungauged fluvial basin with sand and gravel riverbed. The use of scars on trees together with the combined use of 2D hydraulic model and LIDAR topographic data, has allowed a better peak discharge estimation of January, 11–13, 1997 flash flood and its related hazards, than estimation from rainfall data. This could improve flooding risk mapping.

Description: Brief communication "Loss and Damage from a catastrophic landslide in Nepal" Kees van der Geest and Markus Schindler Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-210,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) In August 2014, a major landslide struck in a densely populated district 80 km northeast of Nepal's capital Kathmandu, in Sindhupalchok District. This study combines evidence from surveyes and intereviews to assess impacts, and preventive and coping measures taken. The impacts relative to annual income show that the poor lost up to 14 times their annual income, as opposed to 3 times for the non-poor. The implications of these findings for discussions surrounding loss and damage are discussed.

Description: The catastrophic landfill flowslide at Hongao dumpsite on December 20, 2015 in Shenzhen, China Qiang Xu, Dalei Peng, Weile Li, Xiujun Dong, Wei Hu, Minggao Tang, and Fangzhou Liu Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-196,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) The article aims at presenting the first-hand dataset and results from the field investigation, laboratory test, and numerical analysis for the flowslide occurred on December 20, 2015, in Shenzhen, China; A devastating event resulted in significant human and property losses. The article concluded that the landfill stagnated groundwater flow and resulted in high water pressure due to the absence of drainage system with both disposal rate and amount exceeding the maximum design capacity.

Description: Global distribution of winter lightning: a threat to wind turbines and aircraft Joan Montanyà, Ferran Fabró, Oscar van der Velde, Víctor March, Earle Rolfe Williams, Nicolau Pineda, David Romero, Glòria Solà, and Modesto Freijo Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1465-1472, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1465-2016, 2016 Lightning is one of the major threats to modern multi-megawatt wind turbines and a concern for new generation of aircraft. Both wind turbines and aircraft can initiate lightning and very favourable conditions for lightning initiation occur in winter thunderstorms. Moreover, winter thunderstorms are characterized for producing very energetic lightning. In this paper we present the global winter lightning activity. Japan, US, Mediterranean, Argentina and New Zealand are the most active areas.

Description: SeaConditions: a web and mobile service for safer professional and recreational activities in the Mediterranean Sea G. Coppini, P. Marra, R. Lecci, N. Pinardi, S. Cretì, M. Scalas, L. Tedesco, A. D'Anca, L. Fazioli, A. Olita, G. Turrisi, C. Palazzo, G. Aloisio, S. Fiore, A. Bonaduce, Y. Kumar, S. A. Ciliberti, I. Federico, G. Mannarini, P. Agostini, R. Bonarelli, S. Martinelli, G. Verri, L. Lusito, D. Rollo, A. Cavallo, A. Tumolo, T. Monacizzo, M. Spagnulo, R. Sorgente, A. Cucco, G. Quattrocchi, M. Tonani, M. Drudi, L. Panzera, A. Navarra, and G. Negro Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-176,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) SeaCondition aims to support the users providing the environmental information in due time and with the adequate accuracy in the marine and coastal environment enforcing users' Sea Situational Awareness. SeaConditions consists of a web and mobile application for the provision of meteorological and oceanographic observation and forecasting products. The iOS/Android apps were downloaded by more than 105 000 users and more than 100 000 users have visited the web version ( http://www.sea-conditions.com ).

Description: Stand-Alone Tsunami Alarm Equipment Akio Katsumata, Yutaka Hayashi, Kazuki Miyaoka, Hiroaki Tsushima, Toshitaka Baba, Patricio A. Catalán, Cecilia Zelaya, Felipe Riquelme Vasquez, Rodrigo Sanchez-Olavarria, and Sergio Barrientos Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-164,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) One of the quickest means of tsunami evacuation is transfer to higher ground soon after strong and long ground-shaking. Strong ground motion means that the hypocenter of the event is close to the current location, and long ground-shaking means that the size of the earthquake is large. We investigated the possibility to apply this to tsunami hazard alarm using single-site observation of ground shaking.

Description: Atmospheric and ionospheric coupling phenomena related to large earthquakes M. Parrot, V. Tramutoli, Tiger J. Y. Liu, S. Pulinets, D. Ouzounov, N. Genzano, M. Lisi, K. Hattori, and A. Namgaladze Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-172,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Since tens of years perturbations have been observed in the ionosphere prior to earthquakes (between a few hours and a few days before). But the mechanism to understand how the earthquake preparation in a seismic area can induce a change in the ionosphere is the subject of intense debate. In this paper we present various atmospheric and ionospheric perturbations observed prior to large earthquakes in order to support a model of coupling between the lithosphere, the atmosphere, and the ionosphere.

Description: Regional impacts of global change: seasonal trends in extreme rainfall, run-off and temperature in two contrasting regions of Morocco Kenza Khomsi, Gil Mahe, Yves Tramblay, Mohamed Sinan, and Maria Snoussi Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1079-1090, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1079-2016, 2016 The study investigates trends in mean and extreme rainfall, run-off, temperature and their relationship with large-scale atmospheric circulation. It focuses on two Moroccan watersheds; Bouregreg and Tensift, using data from 1977 to 2003. Results do not show a homogeneous behaviour in the catchments; the influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is different and a clear spatial dependence of the trend analysis is linked to the distance from the coast and the mountains.

Description: FLOPROS: an evolving global database of flood protection standards Paolo Scussolini, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Brenden Jongman, Laurens M. Bouwer, Hessel C. Winsemius, Hans de Moel, and Philip J. Ward Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1049-1061, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016, 2016 Assessments of flood risk, on global to local scales, are becoming more urgent with ongoing climate change and with rapid socioeconomic developments. Such assessments need information about existing flood protection, still largely unavailable. Here we present the first open-source database of FLood PROtection Standards, FLOPROS, which enables more accurate modelling of flood risk. We also invite specialists to contribute new information to this evolving database.

Description: Surface movement above an underground coal longwall mine after closure André Vervoort Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-134,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Underground coal mining induces surface movement with damage to infrastructure. The best known phenomenon is the downward movement or subsidence during the life of the mine. However, it has been observed that after the closure of the mine there is first a period of still residual subsidence, followed by an upwards movement or uplift. This uplift is the direct result of the flooding of the underground workings. By conducting this research the long term impact of mining is better quantified.

Description: The street, an area exposed to earthquakes (the Lorca case, Spain 2011) M. B. Rojo, E. Beck, and C. Lutoff Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-115,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) The Lorca earthquake (Spain, 11-05-2011) caused considerable damages, including a building collapse. This earthquake killed 9 persons affected outside the buildings, on the street, and more than 300 people injured. Studying this specific human exposure requires an adapted methodolgy. This article proposes a dynamic and spatio-temporal approach of individual mobility during the seismic crisis. Its application on Lorca case shows spatial and temporal variability of individual exposure level in the street during the hours following the shake. Not really studied until now, this specific human exposure deserves more attention particularly in zones of moderate seismicity, like Euromediterranean area.

Description: Empirical Study on Drought Adaptation of Regional Rainfed Agriculture in China Zhiqiang Wang, Qing Ma, Siyu Chen, Lan Deng, and Jingyi Jiang Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-94,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) With global warming, the risk of agricultural drought is increasing. Through the empirical analysis of this paper, it found that farmers and the government always spontaneously adjust their development demands and take measures to adapt to environmental change, thus a dynamic agricultural drought adaptation model with the regional characteristics was formed in the area. Agricultural drought risk (R) is the function of environment (E), demand (D) and adaptation (A), or R = f (E, D, A).

Description: Research trends on hazards, disasters, risk reduction and climate change in Indonesia: a systematic literature review Riyanti Djalante Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-112,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) The paper examines progress in research related hazards, risks, disasters, disaster risk reduction and management in Indonesia. It also reviews the roles of Indonesian authors in those publications. The study finds that majority of research focusses on hazards while only recently they focusses on risk reduction and management. This study recommends future research needs and capacity building in writing and collaboration between Indonesia and international researchers.

Description: From event analysis to global lessons: disaster forensics for building resilience Adriana Keating, Kanmani Venkateswaran, Michael Szoenyi, Karen MacClune, and Reinhard Mechler Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1603-1616, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1603-2016, 2016 We present a disaster forensics methodology: the post-event review capability (PERC), which responds to a need for learning about the successes and failures in disaster risk management (DRM) and resilience, uncovers the underlying drivers of increasing risk and makes actionable recommendations. We analyse seven PERC reports and find that across the globe policy makers and practitioners in DRM face strikingly similar challenges. These lessons highlight the importance of integrated risk reduction.

Description: An examination of land use impacts of sea level rise induced flooding Jie Song, Xinyu Fu, Yue Gu, Yujun Deng, and Zhong-Ren Peng Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-157,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) We present a joint model which couples urban growth dynamics with coastal hazards. We use the SLEUTH platform to investigate three urban growth scenarios under different land use policies. We found that compact development may contribute to the region's vulnerability to sea level rise induced flooding, and that strict land development regulations may greatly mitigate such vulnerability. The findings highlight the importance of land use simulations in formulating coastal management plans.

Description: Natural hazard fatalities in Switzerland from 1946 to 2015 Alexandre Badoux, Norina Andres, Frank Techel, and Christoph Hegg Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-232,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) A database of fatalities caused by natural hazards in Switzerland was compiled for the period from 1946 to 2015: In 70 years, 635 events occurred causing 1023 fatalities. The most common causes of death were snow avalanches (37 %), followed by lightning (16 %), floods (12 %), windstorms (10 %), rockfalls (8 %) and landslides (7 %). The annual number of victims showed a distinct decrease over time. In comparison to other countries worldwide, the natural hazard fatality rate in Switzerland is quite low.

Description: Coastal flooding: impact of waves on storm surge during extremes. A case study for the German Bight Joanna Staneva, Kathrin Wahle, Wolfgang Koch, Arno Behrens, Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, and Emil V. Stanev Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-227,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) This study addresses impact of wind, waves, tidal forcing and baroclinicity on the sea level. Their role is quantified and the results are compared with observations. The analyses of the coupled model results reveal a closer match with observations than for the stand-alone circulation model, especially during the extremes. The improved performance resulting from the new developments justifies further use of coupled models for improvement of coastal flooding predictions.

Description: Influence of expertise on rockfall hazard assessment using empirical methods Adeline Delonca, Thierry Verdel, and Yann Gunzburger Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1657-1672, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1657-2016, 2016 Rockfall hazard zoning analyses can be based on qualitative observations. For this reason, expertise is of great importance in determining the hazard. To test this hypothesis, an experiment is proposed to evaluate the importance of subjective assessment: three populations with different level of expertise assessed the level of rockfall hazard on three sites using a qualitative and a quantitative method. A statistical analysis shows that there is a non-significant influence of the level of expertise.

Description: The role of EMODnet Chemistry in the European challenge for Good Environmental Status Matteo Vinci, Alessandra Giorgetti, and Marina Lipizer Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-226,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) EMODnet initiative aims to provide access to European marine data in an interoperable and free of restrictions way. The Chemistry lot focus on the fulfillment of EU MSFD and INSPIRE directives requirements to assess eutrophication and contaminants. It could play two main roles: provide standardized and quality checked buffers of data for specific Regions and act as an umbrella for standards, best practices and infrastructure to aggregate at Regional level the single member states.

Description: Drift simulation of MH370 debris using superensemble techniques Eric Jansen, Giovanni Coppini, and Nadia Pinardi Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1623-1628, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016, 2016 In March 2014, a commercial airliner vanished without a trace. The main wreckage of the plane was never recovered, except for some small parts that washed up more than 17 months after the disappearance. In this paper we show a method to model the most likely trajectories of floating debris from the aircraft. The results show that the assumed area of the crash site is compatible with the recovered debris and predict that further debris may be found along the African east coast.

Description: Review Article: On the relation between the seismic activity and the Hurst exponent of the geomagnetic field at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2189-2194, 2013 Author(s): F. Masci and J. N. Thomas Many papers document the observation of earthquake-related precursory signatures in geomagnetic field data. However, the significance of these findings is ambiguous because the authors did not adequately take into account that these signals could have been generated by other sources, and the seismogenic origin of these signals have not been validated by comparison with independent datasets. Thus, they are not reliable examples of magnetic disturbances induced by the seismic activity. Hayakawa et al. (2004) claim that at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm the Hurst exponent of the Ultra-Low-Frequency (ULF: 0.001–10 Hz) band of the geomagnetic field varied in accord with the energy released by the seismicity. The present paper demonstrates that the behaviour of the Hurst exponent was insufficiently investigated and also misinterpreted by the authors. We clearly show that during the Izu swarm the changes of the Hurst exponent were strongly related to the level of global geomagnetic activity and not to the increase of the local seismic activity.

Description: Forest fire danger rating in complex topography – results from a case study in the Bavarian Alps in autumn 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2157-2167, 2013 Author(s): C. Schunk, C. Wastl, M. Leuchner, C. Schuster, and A. Menzel Forest fire danger rating based on sparse meteorological stations is known to be potentially misleading when assigned to larger areas of complex topography. This case study examines several fire danger indices based on data from two meteorological stations at different elevations during a major drought period. This drought was caused by a persistent high pressure system, inducing a pronounced temperature inversion and its associated thermal belt with much warmer, dryer conditions in intermediate elevations. Thus, a massive drying of fuels, leading to higher fire danger levels, and multiple fire occurrences at mid-slope positions were contrasted by moderate fire danger especially in the valleys. The ability of fire danger indices to resolve this situation was studied based on a comparison with the actual fire danger as determined from expert observations, fire occurrences and fuel moisture measurements. The results revealed that, during temperature inversion, differences in daily cycles of meteorological parameters influence fire danger and that these are not resolved by standard meteorological stations and fire danger indices (calculated on a once-a-day basis). Additional stations in higher locations or high-resolution meteorological models combined with fire danger indices accepting at least hourly input data may allow reasonable fire danger calculations under these circumstances.

Description: Preface "Landslide hazard and risk assessment at different scales" Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2169-2171, 2013 Author(s): P. Reichenbach, A. Günther, and T. Glade

Description: Linking ICT and society in early warning and adaptation to hydrological extremes in mountains Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2253-2270, 2013 Author(s): C. de Jong The assessment of the societal impact of hydrological extremes is particularly important in mountain regions, since mountains can be considered both as the generators and victims of extreme events. ICT can provide a powerful tool for transmitting hydro-meteorological information to predict, prepare and adapt to such events. However, in remote regions, such as mountains, the poles, deserts and islands, preventive and adaptive measures are often restricted by data availability and lack and/or incoherence of data networks. This paper distinguishes between early warning of floods and droughts, emphasising the latter in particular in mountains and explores the possibilities of enhancing the role of society in data collection, the identification, activation and application of stakeholder knowledge and transferral of data from gauged to ungauged catchments.

Description: The environmental impact of the Puyehue–Cordon Caulle 2011 volcanic eruption on Buenos Aires Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2319-2330, 2013 Author(s): G. B. Raga, D. Baumgardner, A. G. Ulke, M. Torres Brizuela, and B. Kucienska On 4 June 2011, the volcanic complex Puyehue–Cordon Caulle located in the Chilean Andes erupted, producing a plume of gases and particles that eventually circled the Southern Hemisphere, disrupting air travel and depositing ash in large quantities. On eight occasions, the plume passed over the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, leading local authorities to close the two international airports. The eruption occurred during an on-going field campaign when measurements of the properties of atmospheric aerosol particles were being made in Buenos Aires as part of a year-long study of the concentration and optical properties of aerosol at one site in the city. The suite of instruments deployed in Buenos Aires were not tailored to measurements of volcanic ash, but were designed to characterize urban conditions. Nevertheless, these measurements were analysed for periods when vertical profiles of aerosol backscatter, made with a ceilometer, clearly showed the presence of the volcano plume over the research site and resulted in airport closure. Aerosol optical thickness derived from AERONET, MODIS and a ceilometer at our research site, all show enhanced values clearly indicating that the three platforms identified the volcanic plume simultaneously. However, a quantitative comparison of the different estimates proves difficult, suggesting large spatial and temporal variability of the plume. Our results indicate that the number concentration of condensation nuclei (CN), the mass concentration of particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PPAH) and the light absorption coefficient exceeded the average background values by more than one standard deviation during the events of volcanic plume. The anomalous concentrations of CN suggest new particle formation, presumably from the conversion of SO 2 , while the anomalous concentrations of PPAH may come from the uptake of PAHs on the plume particles or from chemical reactions on the surface of plume particles. The anomalous absorption coefficients indicate that plume particles may contain certain compounds that can absorb radiation at 550 nm. Another possible explanation consistent with the observations is the scavenging of black carbon from urban sources as the plume descends through the boundary layer to the surface. In addition, the volcanic plume influenced the local meteorology resulting in a decrease of the temperature when compared to the average temperature during days with no plume present.

Description: Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2301-2318, 2013 Author(s): A. Beckers, B. Dewals, S. Erpicum, S. Dujardin, S. Detrembleur, J. Teller, M. Pirotton, and P. Archambeau Managing flood risk in Europe is a critical issue because climate change is expected to increase flood hazard in many european countries. Beside climate change, land use evolution is also a key factor influencing future flood risk. The core contribution of this paper is a new methodology to model residential land use evolution. Based on two climate scenarios ("dry" and "wet"), the method is applied to study the evolution of flood damage by 2100 along the river Meuse. Nine urbanization scenarios were developed: three of them assume a "current trend" land use evolution, leading to a significant urban sprawl, while six others assume a dense urban development, characterized by a higher density and a higher diversity of urban functions in the urbanized areas. Using damage curves, the damage estimation was performed by combining inundation maps for the present and future 100 yr flood with present and future land use maps and specific prices. According to the dry scenario, the flood discharge is expected not to increase. In this case, land use changes increase flood damages by 1–40%, to €334–462 million in 2100. In the wet scenario, the relative increase in flood damage is 540–630%, corresponding to total damages of €2.1–2.4 billion. In this extreme scenario, the influence of climate on the overall damage is 3–8 times higher than the effect of land use change. However, for seven municipalities along the river Meuse, these two factors have a comparable influence. Consequently, in the "wet" scenario and at the level of the whole Meuse valley in the Walloon region, careful spatial planning would reduce the increase in flood damage by no more than 11–23%; but, at the level of several municipalities, more sustainable spatial planning would reduce future flood damage to a much greater degree.

Description: Estimating soil suction from electrical resistivity Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2369-2379, 2013 Author(s): E. Piegari and R. Di Maio Soil suction and resistivity strongly depend on the degree of soil saturation and, therefore, both are used for estimating water content variations. The main difference between them is that soil suction is measured using tensiometers, which give point information, while resistivity is obtained by tomography surveys, which provide distributions of resistivity values in large volumes, although with less accuracy. In this paper, we have related soil suction to electrical resistivity with the aim of obtaining information about soil suction changes in large volumes, and not only for small areas around soil suction probes. We derived analytical relationships between soil matric suction and electrical resistivity by combining the empirical laws of van Genuchten and Archie. The obtained relationships were used to evaluate maps of soil suction values in different ashy layers originating in the explosive activity of the Mt Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy). Our findings provided a further example of the high potential of geophysical methods in contributing to more effective monitoring of soil stress conditions; this is of primary importance in areas where rainfall-induced landslides occur periodically.

Description: Sulfur dioxide emissions from Papandayan and Bromo, two Indonesian volcanoes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2399-2407, 2013 Author(s): P. Bani, Surono, M. Hendrasto, H. Gunawan, and S. Primulyana Indonesia hosts 79 active volcanoes, representing 14% of all active volcanoes worldwide. However, little is known about their SO 2 contribution into the atmosphere, due to isolation and access difficulties. Existing SO 2 emission budgets for the Indonesian archipelago are based on extrapolations and inferences as there is a considerable lack of field assessments of degassing. Here, we present the first SO 2 flux measurements using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) for Papandayan and Bromo, two of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia. Results indicate mean SO 2 emission rates of 1.4 t d −1 from the fumarolic activity of Papandayan and more than 22–32 t d −1 of SO 2 released by Bromo during a declining eruptive phase. These DOAS results are very encouraging and pave the way for a better evaluation of Indonesian volcanic emissions.

Description: Interviewing insights regarding the fatalities inflicted by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2173-2187, 2013 Author(s): M. Ando, M. Ishida, Y. Hayashi, C. Mizuki, Y. Nishikawa, and Y. Tu One hundred fifty survivors of the 11 March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (Tohoku-oki earthquake) ( M w = 9.0) were interviewed to study the causes of deaths from the associated tsunami in coastal areas of Tohoku. The first official tsunami warning underestimated the height of the tsunami and 40% of the interviewees did not obtain this warning due to immediate blackouts and a lack of communication after the earthquake. Many chose to remain in dangerous locations based on the underestimated warning and their experiences with previous smaller tsunamis and/or due to misunderstanding the mitigating effects of nearby breakwaters in blocking incoming tsunamis. Some delayed their evacuation to perform family safety checks, and in many situations, the people affected misunderstood the risks involved in tsunamis. In this area, three large tsunamis have struck in the 115 yr preceding the 2011 tsunami. These tsunamis remained in the collective memory of communities, and numerous measures against future tsunami damage, such as breakwaters and tsunami evacuation drills, had been implemented. Despite these preparedness efforts, approximately 18 500 deaths and cases of missing persons occurred. The death rate with the age of 65 and above was particularly high, four times higher than that with other age groups. These interviews indicate that deaths resulted from a variety of reasons, but if residents had taken immediate action after the major ground motion stopped, most residents might have been saved. Education about the science behind earthquakes and tsunamis could help save more lives in the future.

Description: Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great ( M w = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2279-2299, 2013 Author(s): T. R. Robinson and T. R. H. Davies The Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island has not sustained a large magnitude earthquake since ca. AD 1717. The time since this rupture is close to the average inferred recurrence interval of the fault (~300 yr). The Alpine Fault is therefore expected to generate a large magnitude earthquake in the near future. Previous ruptures of this fault are inferred to have generated M w = 8.0 or greater earthquakes and to have resulted in, amongst other geomorphic hazards, large-scale landslides and landslide dams throughout the Southern Alps. There is currently 85% probability that the Alpine Fault will cause a M w = 8.0+ earthquake within the next 100 yr. While the seismic hazard is fairly well understood, that of the consequential geomorphic activity is less well studied, and these consequences are explored herein. They are expected to include landsliding, landslide damming, dam-break flooding, debris flows, river aggradation, liquefaction, and landslide-generated lake/fiord tsunami. Using evidence from previous events within New Zealand as well as analogous international examples, we develop first-order estimates of the likely magnitude and possible locations of the geomorphic effects associated with earthquakes. Landsliding is expected to affect an area 〉 30 000 km 2 and involve 〉 1billion m 3 of material. Some tens of landslide dams are expected to occur in narrow, steep-sided gorges in the affected region. Debris flows will be generated in the first long-duration rainfall after the earthquake and will continue to occur for several years as rainfall (re)mobilises landslide material. In total more than 1000 debris flows are likely to be generated at some time after the earthquake. Aggradation of up to 3 m will cover an area 〉 125 km 2 and is likely to occur on many West Coast alluvial fans and floodplains. The impact of these effects will be felt across the entire South Island and is likely to continue for several decades.

Description: Integrating spatial, temporal, and size probabilities for the annual landslide hazard maps in the Shihmen watershed, Taiwan Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2353-2367, 2013 Author(s): C. Y. Wu and S. C. Chen Landslide spatial, temporal, and size probabilities were used to perform a landslide hazard assessment in this study. Eleven intrinsic geomorphological, and two extrinsic rainfall factors were evaluated as landslide susceptibility related factors as they related to the success rate curves, landslide ratio plots, frequency distributions of landslide and non-landslide groups, as well as probability–probability plots. Data on landslides caused by Typhoon Aere in the Shihmen watershed were selected to train the susceptibility model. The landslide area probability, based on the power law relationship between the landslide area and a noncumulative number, was analyzed using the Pearson type 5 probability density function. The exceedance probabilities of rainfall with various recurrence intervals, including 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 yr, were used to determine the temporal probabilities of the events. The study was conducted in the Shihmen watershed, which has an area of 760 km 2 and is one of the main water sources for northern Taiwan. The validation result of Typhoon Krosa demonstrated that this landslide hazard model could be used to predict the landslide probabilities. The results suggested that integration of spatial, area, and exceedance probabilities to estimate the annual probability of each slope unit is feasible. The advantage of this annual landslide probability model lies in its ability to estimate the annual landslide risk, instead of a scenario-based risk.

Description: On the puzzling feature of the silence of precursory electromagnetic emissions Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2381-2397, 2013 Author(s): K. Eftaxias, S. M. Potirakis, and T. Chelidze It has been suggested that fracture-induced MHz–kHz electromagnetic emissions (EME), which emerge from a few days up to a few hours before the main seismic shock occurrence permit a real-time monitoring of the damage process during the last stages of earthquake preparation, as it happens at the laboratory scale. Despite fairly abundant evidence, electromagnetic (EM) precursors have not been adequately accepted as credible physical phenomena. These negative views are enhanced by the fact that certain "puzzling features" are repetitively observed in candidate fracture-induced pre-seismic EME. More precisely, EM silence in all frequency bands appears before the main seismic shock occurrence, as well as during the aftershock period. Actually, the view that "acceptance of "precursive" EM signals without convincing co-seismic signals should not be expected" seems to be reasonable. In this work we focus on this point. We examine whether the aforementioned features of EM silence are really puzzling ones or, instead, reflect well-documented characteristic features of the fracture process, in terms of universal structural patterns of the fracture process, recent laboratory experiments, numerical and theoretical studies of fracture dynamics, critical phenomena, percolation theory, and micromechanics of granular materials. Our analysis shows that these features should not be considered puzzling.

Description: Early warning of snow-caused disasters in pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1411-1425, 2013 Author(s): W. Wang, T. Liang, X. Huang, Q. Feng, H. Xie, X. Liu, M. Chen, and X. Wang This study develops a model for early warning of snow-caused livestock disasters on a county basis and proposes a method of qualitative risk assessment of snow disasters at 500 m resolution for pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Data used for the model development include remote sensing data, statistical data of weather, livestock, and social economy, and 45 typical snow disaster cases from 2000 to 2010. The principal component analysis (PCA) approach is used to choose 7 crucial factors that contribute over 85% of information for early warning snow disasters on the TP. They are mean annual probability of snow disaster, number of snow-covered days, livestock stocking rate, continual days of mean daily temperature below −10 °C, grassland burial index, rate of snow-covered grassland, and per livestock gross domestic product. The chosen 411 cases from 2008 to 2010 are used to validate the prediction results from the developed early warning model, with an overall accuracy of 85.64% in predicting snow disasters and no disasters. This suggests that the early warning approach developed in the study has operational potential for predicting snow disasters on the TP.

Description: How much does participatory flood management contribute to stakeholders' social capacity building? Empirical findings based on a triangulation of three evaluation approaches Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1427-1444, 2013 Author(s): M. Buchecker, S. Menzel, and R. Home Recent literature suggests that dialogic forms of risk communication are more effective to build stakeholders' hazard-related social capacities. In spite of the high theoretical expectations, there is a lack of univocal empirical evidence on the relevance of these effects. This is mainly due to the methodological limitations of the existing evaluation approaches. In our paper we aim at eliciting the contribution of participatory river revitalisation projects on stakeholders' social capacity building by triangulating the findings of three evaluation studies that were based on different approaches: a field-experimental, a qualitative long-term ex-post and a cross-sectional household survey approach. The results revealed that social learning and avoiding the loss of trust were more relevant benefits of participatory flood management than acceptance building. The results suggest that stakeholder involvements should be more explicitly designed as tools for long-term social learning.

Description: Stakeholders' issues for action during the warning process and the interpretation of forecasts' uncertainties Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1469-1479, 2013 Author(s): L. Créton-Cazanave and C. Lutoff This article considers the socio-geographical approach carried out as part of the MedUp program. It presents a study of the ways that the French "actors" manage forecast uncertainties during a flash flood warning process. In order to better understand the role of forecasts' uncertainties in decision making, we focused on the actions people took and how what they say explains their actions. The practices of actors involved in warnings for the Vidourle watershed (Gard, France), in particular, are analyzed using a practice-based approach. A set of categories of the "actors" was developed based on their descriptions of the problems they faced during the flash flood warning, independent of their socio-professional status and position in the warning chain. Five actor profiles result from this: Translators, Managers, Committed, Navigators and Vulnerable. For each profile, specific action contexts are defined, determining how each deals with uncertainty.

Description: Augmenting Austrian flood management practices through geospatial predictive analytics: a study in Carinthia Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1445-1455, 2013 Author(s): S. M. Ward and G. Paulus The Danube River basin has long been the location of significant flooding problems across central Europe. The last decade has seen a sharp increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of these flood events, unveiling a dire need for enhanced flood management policy and tools in the region. Located in the southern portion of Austria, the state of Carinthia has experienced a significant volume of intense flood impacts over the last decade. Although the Austrian government has acknowledged these issues, their remedial actions have been primarily structural to date. Continued focus on controlling the natural environment through infrastructure while disregarding the need to consider alternative forms of assessing flood exposure will only act as a provisional solution to this inescapable risk. In an attempt to remedy this flaw, this paper highlights the application of geospatial predictive analytics and spatial recovery index as a proxy for community resilience, as well as the cultural challenges associated with the application of foreign models within an Austrian environment.

Description: CDRD and PNPR satellite passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithms: EuroTRMM/EURAINSAT origins and H-SAF operations Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 887-912, 2013 Author(s): A. Mugnai, E. A. Smith, G. J. Tripoli, B. Bizzarri, D. Casella, S. Dietrich, F. Di Paola, G. Panegrossi, and P. Sanò Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) is a EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) program, designed to deliver satellite products of hydrological interest (precipitation, soil moisture and snow parameters) over the European and Mediterranean region to research and operations users worldwide. Six satellite precipitation algorithms and concomitant precipitation products are the responsibility of various agencies in Italy. Two of these algorithms have been designed for maximum accuracy by restricting their inputs to measurements from conical and cross-track scanning passive microwave (PMW) radiometers mounted on various low Earth orbiting satellites. They have been developed at the Italian National Research Council/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate in Rome (CNR/ISAC-Rome), and are providing operational retrievals of surface rain rate and its phase properties. Each of these algorithms is physically based, however, the first of these, referred to as the Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database (CDRD) algorithm, uses a Bayesian-based solution solver, while the second, referred to as the PMW Neural-net Precipitation Retrieval (PNPR) algorithm, uses a neural network-based solution solver. Herein we first provide an overview of the two initial EU research and applications programs that motivated their initial development, EuroTRMM and EURAINSAT (European Satellite Rainfall Analysis and Monitoring at the Geostationary Scale), and the current H-SAF program that provides the framework for their operational use and continued development. We stress the relevance of the CDRD and PNPR algorithms and their precipitation products in helping secure the goals of H-SAF's scientific and operations agenda, the former helpful as a secondary calibration reference to other algorithms in H-SAF's complete mix of algorithms. Descriptions of the algorithms' designs are provided including a few examples of their performance. This aspect of the development of the two algorithms is placed in the context of what we refer to as the TRMM era, which is the era denoting the active and ongoing period of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) that helped inspire their original development. In 2015, the ISAC-Rome precipitation algorithms will undergo a transformation beginning with the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, particularly the GPM Core Satellite technologies. A few years afterward, the first pair of imaging and sounding Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satellites will be launched, providing additional technological advances. Various of the opportunities presented by the GPM Core and MTG satellites for improving the current CDRD and PNPR precipitation retrieval algorithms, as well as extending their product capability, are discussed.

Description: Influence of management of variables, sampling zones and land units on LR analysis for landslide spatial prevision Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2209-2221, 2013 Author(s): R. Greco and M. Sorriso-Valvo Several authors, according to different methodological approaches, have employed logistic Regression (LR), a multivariate statistical analysis adopted to assess the spatial probability of landslide, even though its fundamental principles have remained unaltered. This study aims at assessing the influence of some of these methodological approaches on the performance of LR, through a series of sensitivity analyses developed over a test area of about 300 km 2 in Calabria (southern Italy). In particular, four types of sampling (1 – the whole study area; 2 – transects running parallel to the general slope direction of the study area with a total surface of about 1/3 of the whole study area; 3 – buffers surrounding the phenomena with a 1/1 ratio between the stable and the unstable area; 4 – buffers surrounding the phenomena with a 1/2 ratio between the stable and the unstable area), two variable coding modes (1 – grouped variables; 2 – binary variables), and two types of elementary land (1 – cells units; 2 – slope units) units have been tested. The obtained results must be considered as statistically relevant in all cases (Aroc values 〉 70%), thus confirming the soundness of the LR analysis which maintains high predictive capacities notwithstanding the features of input data. As for the area under investigation, the best performing methodological choices are the following: (i) transects produced the best results (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 93.4%; Aroc = 79.5%); (ii) as for sampling modalities, binary variables (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 98.3%; Aroc = 80.7%) provide better performance than ordinated variables; (iii) as for the choice of elementary land units, slope units (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 100%; Aroc = 84.2%) have obtained better results than cells matrix.

Description: Risk evolution: how can changes in the built environment influence the potential loss of natural hazards? Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2195-2207, 2013 Author(s): B. Schwendtner, M. Papathoma-Köhle, and T. Glade Alpine areas often suffer significant loss and damage due to a range of natural processes such as landslides, debris flows, snow avalanches or floods. Sealing of the soil surface, settling in endangered areas and enhanced human intervention in the natural settings, as well as socio-economic changes, increase the risk and susceptibility of built environments to natural hazards and the costs of the consequences in a spatio-temporal context. The present study examines the loss estimation of a particular debris flow event for different points in time. The event occurred in August 1987, affected the municipality Martell in South Tyrol, Italy, and resulted in a total cost of € 25 million. The approach presented in this paper focuses on the changes of the land use and settlement expansion in the area since 1954 and attempts to assess the monetary impact of a similar event, which could have happened before (1954, 1985) or following the actual event (1992, 1999, 2006). The method applied is based on the use of a vulnerability curve which was developed for the specific area, based on the documentation of the damage of the 1987 event. Based on this curve, a loss estimation was carried out in order to visualise the risk evolution in a period of 52 yr (1954 to 2006). The results show a significant increase in the extent of the built environment (number, size and value of buildings) which consequently reflect an increase of the potential overall loss through the years. The method can be used in order to assess the potential loss for future scenarios based on different spatial patterns of the built environment.

Description: Wind shear over the Nice Côte d'Azur airport: case studies Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2223-2238, 2013 Author(s): A. Boilley and J.-F. Mahfouf The Nice Côte d'Azur international airport is subject to horizontal low-level wind shears. Detecting and predicting these hazards is a major concern for aircraft security. A measurement campaign took place over the Nice airport in 2009 including 4 anemometers, 1 wind lidar and 1 wind profiler. Two wind shear events were observed during this measurement campaign. Numerical simulations were carried out with Meso-NH in a configuration compatible with near-real time applications to determine the ability of the numerical model to predict these events and to study the meteorological situations generating an horizontal wind shear. A comparison between numerical simulation and the observation dataset is conducted in this paper.

Description: Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2239-2251, 2013 Author(s): M. L. R. Liberato, J. G. Pinto, R. M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, and I. F. Trigo In winter of 2009–2010 south-western Europe was hit by several destructive windstorms. The most important was Xynthia (26–28 February 2010), which caused 64 reported casualties and was classified as the 2nd most expensive natural hazard event for 2010 in terms of economic losses. In this work we assess the synoptic evolution, dynamical characteristics and the main impacts of storm Xynthia, whose genesis, development and path were very uncommon. Wind speed gusts observed at more than 500 stations across Europe are evaluated as well as the wind gust field obtained with a regional climate model simulation for the entire North Atlantic and European area. Storm Xynthia was first identified on 25 February around 30° N, 50° W over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Its genesis occurred on a region characterized by warm and moist air under the influence of a strong upper level wave embedded in the westerlies. Xynthia followed an unusual SW–NE path towards Iberia, France and central Europe. The role of moist air masses on the explosive development of Xynthia is analysed by considering the evaporative sources. A lagrangian model is used to identify the moisture sources, sinks and moisture transport associated with the cyclone during its development phase. The main supply of moisture is located over an elongated region of the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean with anomalously high SST, confirming that the explosive development of storm Xynthia had a significant contribution from the subtropics.

Description: Seismic behavior of buried pipelines constructed by design criteria and construction specifications of both Korea and the US Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2271-2278, 2013 Author(s): S.-S. Jeon Earthquake loss estimation systems in the US, for example HAZUS (Hazard in US), have been established based on sufficient damage records for the purpose of prevention and efficient response to earthquake hazards; however, in Korea, insufficient data sets of earthquakes and damage records are currently available. In this study, the earthquake damages to pipelines in Korea using the pipeline repair rate (RR) recommended in HAZUS was reevaluated with the degree of confidence when RR is used without modification for the damage estimation of pipelines in Korea. The numerical analyses using a commercial finite element model, ABAQUS, were carried out to compare stresses and strains mobilized in both brittle and ductile pipelines constructed by the design criteria and construction specifications of both Korea and the US. These pipelines were embedded in dense sand overlying three different in situ soils (clay, sand, and gravel) subjected to earthquake excitations with peak ground accelerations (PGAs) of 0.2 to 1.2 g and 1994 Northridge and 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake loadings. The numerical results show that differences in the stress and strain rates are less than 10%. This implies that RR in HAZUS can be used for earthquake damage estimation of pipelines with a 90% confidence level in Korea.

Description: Seismic zones for Azores based on statistical criteria Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2337-2351, 2013 Author(s): M. C. M. Rodrigues and C. S. Oliveira The objective of this paper is to define seismic zones in the Azores based on statistical criteria. These seismic zones will likely be used in seismic simulations of occurrences in the Azores Archipelago. The data used in this work cover the time period from 1915 to 2011. The Azores region was divided into 1° × 1° area units, for which the seismicity and the maximum magnitudes of events were calculated. The seismicity, the largest earthquakes recorded and the geological characteristics of the region were used to group these area units because similar seismic zones must delineate areas with homogeneous seismic characteristics. We have identified seven seismic zones. To verify that the defined areas differ statistically, we considered the following dissimilarity measures (variables): time, size and seismic conditions – the number of seismic events with specific characteristics. Statistical tests, particularly goodness-of-fit tests, allowed us to conclude that, considering these three variables, the seven earthquake zones defined here are statistically distinct.

Description: Sub-ionospheric very low frequency perturbations associated with the 12 May 2008 M = 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2331-2336, 2013 Author(s): A. K. Maurya, R. Singh, B. Veenadhari, S. Kumar, and A. K. Singh The present study reports the VLF (very low frequency) sub-ionospheric perturbations observed on transmitter JJI (22.1 kHz), Japan, received at the Indian low-latitude station, Allahabad ( geographic lat. 25.41° N, long 81.93° E), due to Wenchuan earthquake (EQ) that occurred on 12 May 2008 with the magnitude 7.9 and at the depth of 19 km in Sichuan province of Southwest China, located at 31.0° N, 103.4° E. The nighttime amplitude fluctuation analysis gives a significant increase in fluctuation and dispersion two days before EQ, when it crosses 2σ criterion. However, there was no significant change observed in the amplitude trend. The diurnal amplitude variation shows a significant increase in the amplitude of JJI signal on 11 and 12 May 2008. The gravity wave channel and changes in the electric field associated with this EQ seem to be the potential factors of the observed nighttime amplitude fluctuation, dispersion, and significant increase in the signal strength.

Description: Construction and design defects in the residential buildings and observed earthquake damage types in Turkey Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 931-945, 2015 Author(s): M. T. Cogurcu Turkey is situated in a very active earthquake region. In the last century, several earthquakes resulted in thousands of deaths and enormous economic losses. In 1999, the Kocaeli earthquake had an approximate death toll of more than 20 000, and in 2011 the Van earthquake killed 604 people. In general, Turkish residential buildings have reinforced concrete structural systems. These reinforced concrete structures have several deficiencies, such as low concrete quality, non-seismic steel detailing and inappropriate structural systems including several architectural irregularities. In this study, the general characteristics of Turkish building stock and the deficiencies observed in structural systems are explained, and illustrative figures are given with reference to the Turkish Earthquake Code 2007. The poor concrete quality, lack of lateral or transverse reinforcement in beam–column joints and column confinement zones, high stirrup spacings, under-reinforced columns and over-reinforced beams are the primary causes of failures. Other deficiencies include weak-column–stronger-beam formations, insufficient seismic joint separations, soft-story or weak-story irregularities and short columns. Similar construction and design mistakes are also observed in other countries situated on active earthquake belts. Existing buildings still have these undesirable characteristics, and so to prepare for future earthquakes they must be rehabilitated.

Description: Assessing domestic water use habits for more effective water awareness campaigns during drought periods: a case study in Alicante, eastern Spain Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 963-972, 2015 Author(s): H. March, M. Hernández, and D. Saurí The design of water awareness campaigns could benefit from knowledge of the specific characteristics of domestic water use and the factors that may influence certain water consumption habits. This paper investigates water use in 450 households in 10 municipalities of drought-prone Alicante (Spain). We aim to increase knowledge about existing domestic water behaviors and therefore help to improve the design and implementation of future water awareness campaigns and even to consolidate reductions in water use after drought periods. The survey suggests that awareness campaigns should revise their scope and their channels of diffusion on a regular basis. In a more specific way, for the Alicante case we propose policy-oriented recommendations on the scope of action for further reductions.

Description: Interdependence and dynamics of essential services in an extensive risk context: a case study in Montserrat, West Indies Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 947-961, 2015 Author(s): V. L. Sword-Daniels, T. Rossetto, T. M. Wilson, and S. Sargeant The essential services that support urban living are complex and interdependent, and their disruption in disasters directly affects society. Yet there are few empirical studies to inform our understanding of the vulnerabilities and resilience of complex infrastructure systems in disasters. This research takes a systems thinking approach to explore the dynamic behaviour of a network of essential services, in the presence and absence of volcanic ashfall hazards in Montserrat, West Indies. Adopting a case study methodology and qualitative methods to gather empirical data, we centre the study on the healthcare system and its interconnected network of essential services. We identify different types of relationship between sectors and develop a new interdependence classification system for analysis. Relationships are further categorised by hazard conditions, for use in extensive risk contexts. During heightened volcanic activity, relationships between systems transform in both number and type: connections increase across the network by 41%, and adapt to increase cooperation and information sharing. Interconnections add capacities to the network, increasing the resilience of prioritised sectors. This in-depth and context-specific approach provides a new methodology for studying the dynamics of infrastructure interdependence in an extensive risk context, and can be adapted for use in other hazard contexts.

Description: Hail events across the Greater Metropolitan Severe Thunderstorm Warning Area Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 973-984, 2015 Author(s): A. A. Rasuly, K. K. W. Cheung, and B. McBurney This study addresses the recent climatology of hail occurrence in the Greater Metropolitan Severe Thunderstorm Warning Area (GMSTWA) of New South Wales (NSW). The study area is a sprawling suburban area with a population of nearly 4.7 million and one of Australia's largest metropoles. The main objective is to highlight the recent temporal–spatial fluctuations of hail event frequencies and magnitudes (sizes) for each of recognized and vastly inhabited local government areas (LGAs). The relevant hail event data from 1989 to 2013 were initially derived from the severe storm archive of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A climatologically oriented GIS technique was then applied in the examining and mapping procedure of all hail events and hail days reported throughout the study area. By applying a specific criterion, severe hail (defined as 2 cm or more in diameter) was cautiously selected for relevant analysis. The database includes 357 hail events with sizes 2–11 cm which occurred in 169 hail days (a day in which a hail event at least more than 2 cm reported) across the region during the past 25 years. The hail distribution patterns are neither temporally nor spatially uniform in magnitude throughout the study area. Temporal analysis indicated that most of hail events occur predominately in the afternoons with peak time of 1–5 p.m. Australian eastern standard time (EST). They are particularly common in spring and summer, reaching maximum frequency in November and December. There is an average of 14.3 events per year, but a significant decreasing trend in hail frequency and associated magnitude in the recent years has been identified. In turn, spatial analyses also established three main distribution patterns over the study area which include the Sydney metropolitan, the coastal and the most pronounced topographic effects. Based on the understanding of the favorable factors for thunderstorm development in the GMSTWA, the potential impacts from climate variability and future climate change have been briefly discussed.