ALBERT

Description: 〈b〉Wave run-up prediction and observation in a micro-tidal beach〈/b〉〈br〉 Diana Di Luccio, Guido Benassai, Giorgio Budillon, Luigi Mucerino, Raffaele Montella, and Eugenio Pugliese Carratelli〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2841-2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2841-2018, 2018〈br〉 Forecasting and hindcasting the action of sea storms on piers, coastal structures and beaches is important to mitigate their effects. To this end, with particular regard to low coasts and beaches, we have configured a computational model chain based partly on open-access models and partly on an ad-hoc-developed numerical calculator to evaluate beach wave run-up levels. The results were validated by a set of specially conceived video-camera-based experiments on a micro-tidal beach.

Description: 〈b〉Estimation of soil erosion considering soil loss tolerance in karst area〈/b〉〈br〉 Yue Cao, Shijie Wang, Xiaoyong Bai, Huiwen Li, Cheng Zeng, Yichao Tian, Fei Chen, Luhua Wu, and Mingming Wang〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-310,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Due to the soil holding capacity is very limited in karst area, it is necessary to consider the allowable loss of soil. Here we took thermodynamic dissolution model of carbonate rocks and the lithological characteristics to estimate soil loss tolerance, then corrected and quantitatively evaluated the soil erosion. We identified the spatial pattern of soil loss tolerance in karst area, found RUSLE overestimated soil erosion in karst area and proposed an idea for evaluating soil erosion in karst.

Description: 〈b〉InSAR Technique Applied to the Monitoring of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway〈/b〉〈br〉 Qingyun Zhang, Yongsheng Li, Jingfa Zhang, and Yi Luo〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-287,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Before the opening of the railway, the deformation of Qinghai-Tibet Railway was very small and considered stable. After opening, the overall stability of the railway section was good. The main deformation areas are concentrated in the areas where railway lines turn and geological disasters are concentrated. In order to ensure the safety of railway operation, it is necessary to carry out long-term time series observation along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway.

Description: 〈b〉High-spatial resolution probability maps of drought duration and magnitude across Spain〈/b〉〈br〉 Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Miquel Tomás-Burguera, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Yolanda Luna, and Ana Morata〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-289,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 We mapped – for the first time – the probability of occurrence of drought over Spain, with the overriding aim of improving current drought assessment, management and mitigation measures and strategies across the region. Spatially, our estimations suggest a higher probability of extreme drought events in southern and central areas of Spain, compared to northern and eastern regions. Nevertheless, there are strong differences between drought indices, as well as among drought timescales.

Description: 〈b〉Stochastic downscaling of precipitation in complex orography: a simple method to reproduce a realistic fine-scale climatology〈/b〉〈br〉 Silvia Terzago, Elisa Palazzi, and Jost von Hardenberg〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2825-2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2825-2018, 2018〈br〉 This study proposes a modification to a stochastic downscaling method for precipitation, RainFARM, to improve the representation of the statistics of the daily precipitation at fine scales (1 km) in mountain areas. This method has been demonstrated in the Alps and it has been found to reconstruct small-scale precipitation distribution. It can be employed in a number of applications, including the analysis of extreme events and their statistics and hydrometeorological hazards.

Description: 〈b〉Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location〈/b〉〈br〉 David M. Hyman, Andrea Bevilacqua, and Marcus I. Bursik〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-344,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In this work, we present new methods for calculating the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the boundaries of volcanic hazards. These calculations are based on a new, mathematically rigorous definition of a probabilistic hazard map – a way to map the probabilities of inundation by a given hazard. We apply this analysis to several models of volcanic flows: simple models of viscous flows, complex models of a tabletop granular flow, and a complex model of a volcanic mud flow.

Description: 〈b〉On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe〈/b〉〈br〉 Christophe Lavaysse, Jürgen Vogt, Andrea Toreti, Marco L. Carrera, and Florian Pappenberger〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3297-3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018, 2018〈br〉 Forecasting droughts in Europe 1 month in advance would provide valuable information for decision makers. However, these extreme events are still difficult to predict. In this study, we develop forecasts based on predictors using the geopotential anomalies, generally more predictable than precipitation, derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that this approach outperforms the prediction using precipitation, especially in winter and in northern Europe, where 65 % of droughts are predicted.

Description: 〈b〉Loss assessment of building and content damages from potential earthquake risk in Seoul, Korea〈/b〉〈br〉 Wooil Choi, Jae-Woo Park, and Jinhwan Kim〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-281,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In recent years, earthquakes have been occurring in Korea where no earthquakes occurred in the past.It is needed that appropriate response planning using simulations in countries with less earthquake risk management experiences. especially important to evaluate earthquake damage financially. This paper is a model study for urban earthquake risk management and it is meaningful to generate basis data of cost benefit analysis of disaster prevention plan by financial evaluation of earthquake damage.

Description: 〈b〉Numerical and remote techniques for operational beach management under storm group forcing〈/b〉〈br〉 Verónica Morales-Márquez, Alejandro Orfila, Gonzalo Simarro, Lluís Gómez-Pujol, Amaya Álvarez-Ellacuría, Daniel Conti, Álvaro Galán, Andrés F. Osorio, and Marta Marcos〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3211-3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3211-2018, 2018〈br〉 This work analyzes the response of a beach under a series of storms using a numerical model, in situ measurements and video imaging. Time recovery after storms is a key issue for local beach managers, who are pressed by tourism stakeholders to nourish the beach after energetic processes in order to reach the quality standards required by beach users.

Description: 〈b〉Preface: Landslide early warning systems: monitoring systems, rainfall thresholds, warning models, performance evaluation and risk perception〈/b〉〈br〉 Samuele Segoni, Luca Piciullo, and Stefano Luigi Gariano〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3179-3186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3179-2018, 2018〈br〉

Description: 〈b〉Towards a comprehensive view of dust events from multiple satellite and ground measurements: exemplified by the May 2017 East Asian dust storm〈/b〉〈br〉 Lu She, Yong Xue, Jie Guang, Yahui Che, Cheng Fan, Ying Li, and Yanqing Xie〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3187-3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3187-2018, 2018〈br〉 Multi-satellite/sensor observations and ground-based measurements combined with the HYSPLIT model were used to analyse the dynamical processes of the origin and transport of a strong dust storm. The optical and microphysical properties of the dust particles were analysed using AERONET measurements. The combined observations revealed comprehensive information about the dynamic transport of dust and the dust-affected regions, and the effect of dust storms on the aerosol properties.

Description: 〈b〉Roads and landslides in Nepal: how development affects environmental risk〈/b〉〈br〉 Brian G. McAdoo, Michelle Quak, Kaushal R. Gnyawali, Basanta R. Adhikari, Sanjaya Devkota, Purna Lal Rajbhandari, and Karen Sudmeier-Rieux〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3203-3210, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3203-2018, 2018〈br〉 Road development in Nepal promises to improve access to markets, education and healthcare, but not without hazardous consequences. Using GIS maps of monsoon-triggered landslides, we show that rural roads are responsible for doubling the number of landslides in one mountainous district. Engineers are seeking sustainable and affordable eco-solutions to help stabilize these roads in order to prevent further loss of life and property as Nepal approaches this next phase in its development.

Description: 〈b〉Projected changes to extreme freezing precipitation and design ice loads over North America based on a large ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations〈/b〉〈br〉 Dae Il Jeong, Alex J. Cannon, and Xuebin Zhang〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-395,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Atmospheric ice accretion caused by freezing precipitation leads to severe damage and failure of buildings and infrastructure. This study investigates projected changes to extreme ice loads used to design infrastructure over North America for future periods of specified global mean temperature change using a Canadian regional climate model. Increases in ice accretion for latitudes higher than 40° N are substantial and would have clear implications for future building and infrastructure design.

Description: 〈b〉Rain attenuation prediction model for satellite communications based on the Météo-France ensemble prediction system PEARP〈/b〉〈br〉 Isabelle Dahman, Philippe Arbogast, Nicolas Jeannin, and Bouchra Benammar〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3327-3341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3327-2018, 2018〈br〉 This paper proposes an innovative method for optimizing the transmissions of high throughput satellites based on weather forecasts. Such transmissions are particularly sensitive to the presence of hydrometeors, which attenuate the signal. A model to forecast the attenuation based on forecasted rainfall amounts is presented. The valuable contribution of weather forecasts in the system optimization is demonstrated as well as the benefit of using ensemble forecasts over deterministic forecasts.

Description: 〈b〉Man-made earthquakes prevention through monitoring and discharging their causative stress-deformed states〈/b〉〈br〉 Oleg Kuznetsov, Igor Chirkin, Ahmed Radwan, Ahmed Ismail, Yury Lyasch, Samuel LeRoy, Evgeny Rizanov, and Sergey Koligaev〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-350,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Despite our understanding of the different mechanisms of man-made earthquakes, their short-term prediction and prevention is yet to be attained. In this study, we propose an integrated four-step approach to predict and prevent man-made earthquakes or reduce their chance of occurrence. Our four-step approach includes: 1) locating the highly anomalous zones of microseismic emission (MSE) that result from the stress-deformed state inside a geological formation and often represents the 〈q〉seismic nuclei〈/q〉 for impending earthquakes, 2) Monitoring the variations and dynamics of the anomalous MSE zones over a period of one lunar month, 3) inducing a creep-discharging of the MSE zones using a vibroseis seismic source at the ground surface, and 4) monitoring the same MSE zones following the creep-discharge to determine whether the stress-deformed state was released and the chance of potential earthquake occurrence has been eliminated or reduced. The proposed full four-step approach has never implemented at one single location. Nevertheless, the steps have been tested separately at different sites and have proven successful. We propose conducting the full four-step approach at various locations of potential man-made earthquake activities around the world including the state of Oklahoma in the United States.

Description: 〈b〉Weight analysis of influencing factors of dam break risk consequences〈/b〉〈br〉 Zongkun Li, Wei Li, and Wei Ge〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3355-3362, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3355-2018, 2018〈br〉 It is necessary to analyze the weight of multiple factors in the risk consequence of dam break. When the number of influencing factors exceeds 10, the analysis of its weight will become very difficult. In this paper, the cloud model, an artificial intelligence calculation method, is used to transform the subjective factors into a large number of data for the improved entropy weight method. The result is objective and reasonable, providing a new way of analyzing multi-factor weights.

Description: 〈b〉Synoptic-scale conditions and convection-permitting hindcast experiments of a cold-season derecho on 3 January 2014 in Western Europe〈/b〉〈br〉 Luca Mathias, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-365,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 Convective systems producing severe winds occasionally affect Europe during wintertime and the majority of these storms develop along well-defined cold fronts of extra-tropical cyclones. However, on 3 January 2014, a storm formed in a post-frontal air mass over Western Europe. This study analyses the prevailing environmental conditions and the predictability of this storm. Our results reveal the difficulty to forecast cold-season convective storms when they are not associated with a cold front.

Description: 〈b〉Analysis of the risk associated with coastal flooding hazards: a new historical extreme storm surges dataset for Dunkirk, France〈/b〉〈br〉 Yasser Hamdi, Emmanuel Garnier, Nathalie Giloy, Claire-Marie Duluc, and Vincent Rebour〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3383-3402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3383-2018, 2018〈br〉 As coastal zones are densely populated, marine flooding represents a hazard threatening populations and facilities (e.g., nuclear plants) along the shore. Using historical data can significantly improve the analysis of extremes. To address this issue, 500 years of historical storms were recovered from archives and used in frequency estimations of marine flooding extremes. The new dataset provides a valuable source of information on storm surges for future characterization of coastal hazards.

Description: 〈b〉Multi-hazard risks in New York City〈/b〉〈br〉 Yaella Depietri, Khila Dahal, and Timon McPhearson〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3363-3381, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3363-2018, 2018〈br〉 Megacities are often located along coasts and are greatly exposed to multiple climatic hazards. We take New York City as an example of a coastal megacity highly affected by heat waves, inland flooding and coastal flooding. These hazards overlap spatially or temporally in the city. We develop a multi-hazard risk map to identify hotspots of risk and prioritize adaptation strategies. We find that New York City should prioritize adaptation of coastal areas while considering synergies and trade-offs.

Description: 〈b〉Water-level attenuation in broad-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis〈/b〉〈br〉 Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Mark Schuerch, Claudia Wolff, Tom Spencer, Jan L. Merkens, Jochen Hinkel, Daniel Lincke, Sally Brown, and Robert J. Nicholls〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-359,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This paper evaluates the effect of surge attenuation due to land surface characteristics on the assessment of flooding extent and depth, in global studies. Our results show that uncertainties in the estimation of flood characteristics due to not accounting for water attenuation are of similar magnitude to the uncertainties regarding the total amount of sea-level rise by 2100, thus suggesting the need for better understanding the spatial and temporal variation of water levels across floodplains.

Description: 〈b〉The role of antecedent soil moisture conditions on rainfall-triggered shallow landslides〈/b〉〈br〉 Maurizio Lazzari, Marco Piccarreta, and Salvatore Manfreda〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-371,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 Rainfall data and soil degree saturation in the Basilicata region (southern Italy) are used to explore the effects of antecedent soil moisture conditions on rainfall I/D thresholds triggering of 326 shallow landslides occurred in the last 18 years. We found that previous soil degree saturation conditions play a crucial role on landslide triggering, much more than the same rainfalls. Two distinct soil degree saturation values less of 0,7 and more of 0.7 clearly affects the shallow landslides.

Description: 〈b〉Co-detection of micro seismic activity as early warning of gravitational slope failure〈/b〉〈br〉 Jérome Faillettaz, Martin Funk, Jan Beutel, and Andreas Vieli〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-377,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 We developed a new strategy for real-time early warning of gravity-driven slope failures (such as landslides, rockfalls, glacier break-off, ...). This method enables to investigate natural slope stability based on continuous monitoring and interpretation of seismic waves generated by the potential instability. Thanks to a pilot experiment, we detected typical patterns of precursory events prior slide events, demonstrating the potential of this method for a real word applications.

Description: 〈b〉Risk assessment of sea ice disasters on fixed jacket platforms in the Liaodong Bay〈/b〉〈br〉 Ning Xu, Shuai Yuan, Xueqin Liu, Yuxian Ma, Wenqi Shi, and Dayong Zhang〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-280,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Sea ice disasters seriously threaten the safety of oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out the risk assessment of sea ice disasters on oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. The analysis results showed that efficient sea ice prevention strategies could largely mitigate the sea ice-induced vibration-related risks of jacket platforms.The sea ice risk assessment method can be applied in the design, operation, and management of other engineering structures.

Description: 〈b〉Research on Occurrence and Development of Pasture Drought Events in Alpine Grassland using the Drought Threshold〈/b〉〈br〉 Tiaofeng Zhang, Lin Li, Hongbin Xiao, and Hongmei Li〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-305,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 3 comments)〈br〉 Pasture is vital to livestock husbandry development in Qinghai and even in North China. Insufficient soil moisture is the most prominent cause of pasture drought. This study aims at investigating pasture responses to soil drought as well as quantitative expression of soil drought degree and drought threshold. Test plots were selected from the pasture test station. Five testing groups were set according to coverage rate (0–100 %) at the initiation the pasture growth period.

Description: 〈b〉3-Dimensional Rockfall Shape Back-Analysis: Methods and Implications〈/b〉〈br〉 David A. Bonneau, D. Jean Hutchinson, Paul-Mark Difrancesco, Melanie Coombs, and Zac Sala〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-366,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In mountainous regions around the world rockfall pose a hazard to infrastructure and society. To aid in our understanding and management of these complex hazards, an inventory can be compiled. 3D remote sensing data can be used to locate the source zones of these events and generate models of the areas which detached. We address the way in which the shape of a rockfall object can be measured. The shape of a rockfall has implications for forward modelling of potential runout zones.

Description: 〈b〉Potential impact of climate change and extreme events on slope land hazard – a case study of Xindian watershed in Taiwan〈/b〉〈br〉 Shih-Chao Wei, Hsin-Chi Li, Hung-Ju Shih, and Ko-Fei Liu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3283-3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3283-2018, 2018〈br〉 We adopted the projected rainfall coupled with the shallow landslide prediction, debris flow simulation, and loss assessment to investigate the impact in Xindian watershed, Taiwan. Upon comparing the worst events in the late 20th and 21st centuries, the economic losses are projected to increase by 27.8 % due to the increasing disasters on slope land caused by climate change. The influence downstream will be mainly in the form of indirect impacts such as a water supply shortage.

Description: 〈b〉Structural weakening of the Merapi dome identified by drone photogrammetry after the 2010 eruption〈/b〉〈br〉 Herlan Darmawan, Thomas R. Walter, Valentin R. Troll, and Agus Budi-Santoso〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3267-3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, 2018〈br〉 At Merapi volcano, lava dome failure may generate pyroclastic flow and threaten populations who live on its flanks. Here, we assessed the potential hazard of the Merapi lava dome by using drone photogrammetry and numerical modeling. Results show a weak structural depression that is associated with high thermal imaging in the southern Merapi lava dome sector. The southern lava dome sector may be further destabilized by typical rainfall at the Merapi summit and produce pyroclastic flow up to 4 km.

Description: 〈b〉The effect of increased resolution of geostationary satellite imageries on predictability of tropical thunderstorms over Southeast Asia〈/b〉〈br〉 Kwonmin Lee, Hye-Sil Kim, and Yong-Sang Choi〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-357,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 Thunderstorm prediction using satellites is of vital importance in Southeast Asia. While recent satellites can observe the area more precisely and their applications to pre-disaster management are highly demanded, how far ahead the predictions of thunderstorms can be advanced was questionable. Our results show thunderstorms can be predicted 100–180 minutes ahead of their matured stages using satellite data (2 km, 10 min resolutions). This can capture rapidly-growing clouds before precipitation.

Description: 〈b〉Automated snow avalanche release area delineation – validation of existing algorithms and proposition of a new object-based approach for large-scale hazard indication mapping〈/b〉〈br〉 Yves Bühler, Daniel von Rickenbach, Andreas Stoffel, Stefan Margreth, Lukas Stoffel, and Marc Christen〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3235-3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3235-2018, 2018〈br〉 Coping with avalanche hazard has a long tradition in alpine countries. Hazard mapping has proven to be one of the most effective methods. In this paper we develop a new approach to automatically delineate avalanche release areas and connect them to state-of-the-art numerical avalanche simulations. This enables computer-based hazard indication mapping over large areas such as entire countries. This is of particular interest where hazard maps do not yet exist, such as in developing countries.

Description: 〈b〉Indirect seismic economic loss assessment and recovery evaluation using nighttime light images – application for Wenchuan earthquake〈/b〉〈br〉 Jianfei Wang, Jingfa Zhang, Lixia Gong, Qiang Li, and Dan Zhou〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3253-3266, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3253-2018, 2018〈br〉 This paper focused on the indirect economic losses caused by the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and evaluated the progress of restoration and reconstruction based on nighttime light images. Results show that the GDP has a quadratic function relationship with the total nighttime lights under normal conditions, and the economy of the disaster area after the earthquake showed unstable and turbulent development. This research provides a basis for macro-control of earthquake recovery and reconstruction.

Description: 〈b〉Application of the LM-BP neural network approach for landslide risk assessments〈/b〉〈br〉 Junnan Xiong, Ming Sun, Hao Zhang, Weiming Cheng, Yinghui Yang, Mingyuan Sun, Yifan Cao, and Jiyan Wang〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-360,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 We want to know where prone to landslides or where pipeline is more unsafe. Through a model, We determined that there were 33.18 % and 40.46 % slopes of the total area in high-hazard and extremely high-hazard areas. the number and length of pipe segments in the highly vulnerable and extremely vulnerable area accounted for about 12 % of the total. In general, the pipeline risk within Qingchuan and Jian'ge Counties was relatively high.

Description: 〈b〉Mapping snow avalanches hazard in poorly monitored areas. The case of Rigopiano avalanche, Apennines of Italy〈/b〉〈br〉 Daniele Bocchiola, Mattia Galizzi, Giovanni Martino Bombelli, and Andrea Soncini〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-358,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 We investigate hazard for the poorly monitored area of Rigopiano (PE), where an avalanche killed 29 persons on January 2017. Using Poly-Aval model (1D/q2D), and a regional approach to calculate snow depth at release 〈i〉h〈/i〉〈sub〉72〈/sub〉 we map hazard zones as per AINEVA guidelines, with confidence limits. We demonstrate that regionally based hazard mapping at poorly measured sites as here allows mapping even for large return periods, considerably reducing the uncertainty against canonical single site analysis.

Description: 〈b〉Convection-permitting regional climate simulations for representing floods in small- and medium-sized catchments in the Eastern Alps〈/b〉〈br〉 Christian Reszler, Matthew Blaise Switanek, and Heimo Truhetz〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2653-2674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2653-2018, 2018〈br〉 Small-scale floods are a consequence of high rainfall rates in small areas that can occur along frontal activity and convective storms. This situation is expected to become more severe due to a warming climate. This study shows the test of fine-gridded (~ 3 km spacing) climate models combined with error-correction techniques for flood modelling in small- and medium-sized catchments. Results are promising, but further research is needed so these models can be applied in climate change studies.

Description: 〈b〉Accuracy of geodetic site velocities from repeated GPS measurements: relative positioning over long baselines〈/b〉〈br〉 Huseyin Duman and Dogan Ugur Sanli〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-258,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The research has been done to assess the performance of relative positioning over long baselines in determining the accuracy of site velocities from repeated short session GPS measurements. GPS repeated measurements were generated from the IGS data, and the results were compared with PPP derived findings. Major outcome of this study is that relative positioning over long baselines produces similar accuracies to PPP. A newly proposed refinement method also improves the available PPP accuracy.

Description: 〈b〉Projected intensification of sub-daily and daily rainfall extremes in convection-permitting climate model simulations over North America: Implications for future Intensity–Duration–Frequency curves〈/b〉〈br〉 Alex J. Cannon and Silvia Innocenti〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-290,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves are used as the basis for the design, management, and operation of water resources infrastructure at local and regional scales. Given anticipated intensification of the hydrological cycle with anthropogenic global warming, quantitative information on the future extreme rainfall hazard is needed by practitioners. This paper analyses projected changes in IDF curves based on high-resolution regional climate model simulations over North America.

Description: 〈b〉Natural hazard risk of complex systems – the whole is more than the sum of its parts: II. A pilot study in Mexico City〈/b〉〈br〉 Marcello Arosio, Mario L. V. Martina, and Rui Figueiredo〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-278,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 Assessing the risk of complex systems to natural hazards is an important and challenging problem. In today's socio-technological world, the connections and interdependencies between exposed elements are crucial. These complex relations call for a paradigm shift in collective risk assessment. This two-part paper proposes a new holistic approach to assess the risk of complex systems based on Graph Theory. Part II presents an application to a pilot study in Mexico City.

Description: 〈b〉Natural hazard risk of complex systems – the whole is more than the sum of its parts: I. A holistic modelling approach based on Graph Theory〈/b〉〈br〉 Marcello Arosio, Mario L. V. Martina, and Rui Figueiredo〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-277,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 Assessing the risk of complex systems to natural hazards is an important and challenging problem. In today’s socio-technological world, the connections and interdependencies between exposed elements are crucial. These complex relations call for a paradigm shift in collective risk assessment. This two-part paper proposes a new holistic approach to assess the risk of complex systems based on Graph Theory. Part I presents the approach and discusses how it can be used to more thoroughly assess risk.

Description: 〈b〉Strategies to increase the accessibility of tsunami shelters enhances their adaptive capacity to risks in coastal port cities: The case of Nagoya City, Japan〈/b〉〈br〉 Weitao Zhang, Jiayu Wu, and Yingxia Yun〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-267,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The study integrates tsunami hazards that create risk into: hazard-product risk and hazard-affected risk. Consistent with different factors evaluated for these two risk dimensions, different spatial distributions between them can be formed. The study recommends tsunami shelter accessibility to be enhanced where hazard-product risk is large and where hazard-affected risk is high in a different and targeted way. The tsunami risk situation’s complexity in coastal port cities makes this interesting.

Description: 〈b〉Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Drought Hazard under Different RCP Scenarios for China in the 21〈sup〉st〈/sup〉 century〈/b〉〈br〉 Tao Pan, Jie Chen, and Yujie Liu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-242,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Results indicate that 2071–2099 will face the most severe droughts, with the highest frequency and longest duration. In terms of spatial distribution, drought hazards in north China will be greater than in south China, especially the non-monsoon region. Comparing the two scenarios, drought hazards from RCP8.5 are higher than that from RCP4.5, i.e., higher frequency, longer duration of drought and more significant drying trends. These results provide a reference for adaption and reduction.

Description: 〈b〉Large-scale physical modelling study of a flexible barrier under the impact of granular flows〈/b〉〈br〉 Dao-Yuan Tan, Jian-Hua Yin, Wei-Qiang Feng, Jie-Qiong Qin, and Zhuo-Hui Zhu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2625-2640, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2625-2018, 2018〈br〉 This study presents the large-scale test results of dry granular flows impacting a flexible barrier. Motions and deposition characteristics of granular flows are described and analysed. Impact forces on the flexible barrier directly and on the supporting structures are measured and compared. It is found that the flexible ring net can reduce the impact force from a granular flow with large deformation. Furthermore, existing simple approaches for impact force estimation are verified.

Description: 〈b〉Communicating Disaster Risk? An Evaluation of the Availability and Quality of Flood Maps〈/b〉〈br〉 Daniel Henstra, Andrea Minano, and Jason Thistlethwaite〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-264,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 2 comments)〈br〉 Flood maps can help stakeholders and the public understand their flood risk. We evaluated the quality of publicly-accessible flood maps in Canadian communities designated as flood risk areas. We found that most (62 %) are low-quality (meeting less than half of the criteria) and the highest score was 78 % (7 of 9 criteria met). Canada must make a more concerted effort to produce high-quality flood maps to support its international commitment to disaster risk reduction.

Description: 〈b〉Has fire policy decreased the return period of the largest wildfire events in France? A Bayesian assessment based on extreme value theory〈/b〉〈br〉 Guillaume Evin, Thomas Curt, and Nicolas Eckert〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2641-2651, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2641-2018, 2018〈br〉 Very large wildfires have high human, economic, and ecological impacts. Preventing such events is a major objective of the new fire policy set up in France in 1994, which is oriented towards fast and massive fire suppression. This study investigates the effect of this policy on the largest fires. We estimate the burned area corresponding to fires that occur every 5, 20, and 50 years on average (so-called return periods) in southern France.

Description: 〈b〉State of the art of fragility analysis for major building types in China with implications for intensity-PGA relationships〈/b〉〈br〉 Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, and Friedemann Wenzel〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-254,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 Field surveys after major disastrous earthquakes have shown that poor performance of buildings in earthquake affected areas is the leading cause of human fatalities and economic losses. The evaluation of seismic fragility for existing building stocks has become a crucial issue due to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes in the last decades. They are required for the estimation of fatalities and monetary losses due to structural damage in destructive natural disasters like earthquakes.

Description: 〈b〉Integrated risk assessment due to slope instabilities at the roadway network of Gipuzkoa, Basque Country〈/b〉〈br〉 Olga Mavrouli, Jordi Corominas, Iñaki Ibarbia, Nahikari Alonso, Ioseba Jugo, Jon Ruiz, Susana Luzuriaga, and Jose Antonio Navarro〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-234,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 2 comments)〈br〉 A methodology is proposed for the quantitative risk assessment for roadways subjected to rockfalls, retaining wall failures, slow moving landslides, and coastal erosion induced failures. It includes the calculation of the probability of occurrence of each hazard with a given level, based on an extensive collection of field data, and its association with the consequences. The latter were assessed considering the road damage repair cost for each level, in terms of a fixed Unit Cost.

Description: 〈b〉Influence of shearing rate on the residual strength characteristic of three landslides soils in loess area〈/b〉〈br〉 Baoqin Lian, Jianbing  Peng, Xingang Wang, and Qiangbing Huang〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-270,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 2 comments)〈br〉 〈p〉In order to investigate the effect of the shearing rate on the residual shear strength of slip zone soils, a series ring shear tests were carried out on slip zone soils from three landslides in loess area at the two shearing rates (0.1 mm/min and 1 mm/min). The slip zone soil specimens used in present study were from the northwest of China. Results indicated that the shear displacement to achieve the residual stage for specimens with higher shearing rate is greater than that of the lower rate. Relationship between the residual friction coefficients and normal stress shows that the residual friction coefficients for all specimens under the lower normal stress were greater than that under the higher normal stress at two shearing rate. Furthermore, the difference in the residual friction angle ф〈sub〉r〈/sub〉 at the two shearing rates, ф〈sub〉r〈/sub〉 (1) − ф〈sub〉r〈/sub〉 (0.1), under each normal stress level were either positive or negative values, with the maximum absolute value of ф〈sub〉r〈/sub〉 (1) − ф〈sub〉r〈/sub〉 (0.1) reach up to 2.218°. However, the difference ф〈sub〉r〈/sub〉 (1) − ф〈sub〉r〈/sub〉 (0.1) under all normal stresses was negative, which indicates that the residual shear parameters reduced with the increasing of the shearing rate in loess area.〈/p〉

Description: 〈b〉Evaluating earthquake-induced rockfall hazard by investigating past rockfall events: the case of Qiryat-Shemona adjacent to the Dead Sea Transform, northern Israel〈/b〉〈br〉 Mor Kanari, Oded Katz, Ram Weinberger, Naomi Porat, and Shmuel Marco〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-250,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 We study rockfall hazard to a town below a cliff in an earthquake prone area. Large trailer-truck size boulders are scattered down slope above town. Mapping boulder locations and sizes (in the field and in past aerial photos) and calculating their predicted trajectories down slope using computer simulation yielded a hazard map for rockfall impact. hazard is reduced where slope angle is below 10°. Dating rockfalls coincides with past earthquakes and predicts probability for future rockfalls.

Description: 〈b〉Contrasting large fire regimes in the French Mediterranean〈/b〉〈br〉 Anne Ganteaume and Renaud Barbero〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-263,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Long-term geo-referenced time series showed spatio-temporal variations of large fires (LF ≥ 100 ha) throughout the French Mediterranean with 21 % of the total LF burned area occurring on a surface previously burned. The region was impacted up to 5–6 times by recurrent LF, the East experiencing fewer but larger LF despite fire weather conditions decreasing eastwards. The efficiency of fire management emerged in early 1990s but LF outbreak during extreme weather conditions remains of major concern.

Description: 〈b〉Tree-based mesh-refinement GPU-accelerated tsunami simulator for real-time operation〈/b〉〈br〉 Marlon Arce Acuña and Takayuki Aoki〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2561-2602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2561-2018, 2018〈br〉 Tsunamis like those in Indonesia in 2004 and Japan in 2011 have shown like never before the destructive power of this natural disaster. This highlighted the importance of fast and accurate simulations for forecasting. We present a fully GPU-accelerated tsunami model for large domains that delivers results within minutes with high accuracy and efficient resource use. By using just three GPUs, results for the Indian Ocean were obtained in 15 min. This allows for fast evacuation and risk decisions.

Description: 〈b〉Effectiveness of low-impact development for urban inundation risk mitigation under different scenarios: a case study in Shenzhen, China〈/b〉〈br〉 Jiansheng Wu, Rui Yang, and Jing Song〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2525-2536, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2525-2018, 2018〈br〉 Our study builds a 2-D model at an urbanized watershed, and the results indicate that permeable pavement and green roofs are good strategies for urban inundation mitigation. What is more, we also find the best combination of permeable pavement and green roofs for local areas, considering both effectiveness and cost. This study enriches the inundation mitigation research on an urban watershed scale and provides some references to urban storm water management and inundation mitigation.

Description: 〈b〉Weight analysis of dam break risk consequences influencing factors〈/b〉〈br〉 Zongkun Li, Wei Li, and Wei Ge〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-265,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 It is necessary to analyze the weight of multi factors on the risk consequence of dam break. When the number of influencing factors exceeds 10 or more, the analysis of its weight will become very difficult. In this manuscript, the cloud model, an artificial intelligence calculation method, is used to transform the subjective factors into a large number of data for the improved entropy weight method. The result is objective and reasonable, providing a new way of analyzing multi factor weights.

Description: 〈b〉Communicating public avalanche warnings – what works?〈/b〉〈br〉 Rune V. Engeset, Gerit Pfuhl, Markus Landrø, Andrea Mannberg, and Audun Hetland〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2537-2559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2537-2018, 2018〈br〉 The Norwegian Avalanche Warning Service was launched in 2013 to stop the increase in avalanche fatalities. We studied how efficiently warnings communicate the hazard on Varsom.no: which risk factors are difficult to assess and manage? Which elements in the warning are (not) important? Which elements are easily misunderstood? Which information/features are missing/ignored by users? We developed a communication effectiveness score for testing this using an online survey.

Description: 〈b〉Extreme water levels, waves and coastal impacts during a severe tropical cyclone in northeastern Australia: a case study for cross-sector data sharing〈/b〉〈br〉 Thomas R. Mortlock, Daryl Metters, Joshua Soderholm, John Maher, Serena B. Lee, Geoffrey Boughton, Nigel Stewart, Elisa Zavadil, and Ian D. Goodwin〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2603-2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2603-2018, 2018〈br〉 Tropical cyclone (TC) 〈i〉Debbie〈/i〉 crossed the northeastern coast of Australia on 27 March 2017. A multi-sector consortium collected data throughout the event to produce a holistic picture of hazards and impacts at the coast. While water levels and waves were unprecedented for this area since monitoring began, TC 〈i〉Debbie〈/i〉 can be regarded as a near miss in terms of widespread coastal flooding. This work provides a case study of cross-sector data sharing in a natural hazard context in Australia.

Description: 〈b〉A first wildfire risk assessment for Belgium〈/b〉〈br〉 Arthur Depicker, Bernard De Baets, and Jan M. Baetens〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-252,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In recent years, several valuable nature reserves in Belgium have been severely damaged by wildfires. In order to optimize the risk management and get prepared for a possibly increasing number of such events, a first wildfire risk map is developed for Belgium, based on data that was obtained from the government and newspaper articles.

Description: 〈b〉Assessing fragility of a reinforced concrete element to snow avalanches using a non-linear dynamic mass-spring model〈/b〉〈br〉 Philomène Favier, David Bertrand, Nicolas Eckert, Isabelle Ousset, and Mohamed Naaim〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2507-2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2507-2018, 2018〈br〉 〈p〉This paper presents an assessment of the fragility of a reinforced concrete (RC) element subjected to avalanche loads, and more generally to dynamic pressure fields applied orthogonally to a wall, within a reliability framework. In order to obtain accurate numerical results with supportable computation times, a light and efficient Single-Degree-of-Freedom (SDOF) model describing the mechanical response of the RC element is proposed. The model represents its dynamic mechanical response up to failure. Material non-linearity is taken into account by a moment–curvature approach, which describes the overall bending response. The SDOF model is validated under quasi-static and dynamic loading conditions by comparing its results to alternative approaches based on finite element analysis and the yield line theory. Following this, the deterministic SDOF model is embedded within a reliability framework to evaluate the failure probability as a function of the maximal avalanche pressure reached during the loading. Several reliability methods are implemented and compared, suggesting that non-parametric methods provide significant results at a moderate level of computational burden. The sensitivity to material properties, such as tensile and compressive strengths, steel reinforcement ratio, and wall geometry is investigated. The effect of the avalanche loading rate is also underlined and discussed. Finally, the obtained fragility curves are compared with respect to the few proposals available in the snow avalanche engineering field. This approach is systematic and will prove useful in refining formal and practical risk assessments. It could be applied to other similar natural hazards, which induce dynamic pressure fields onto the element at risk (e.g., mudflows, floods) and where potential inertial effects are expected and for which fragility curves are also lacking.〈/p〉

Description: 〈b〉Approach for combining fault and area sources in seismic hazard assessment: application in south-eastern Spain〈/b〉〈br〉 Alicia Rivas-Medina, Belen Benito, and Jorge Miguel Gaspar-Escribano〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2809-2823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2809-2018, 2018〈br〉 We present an approach for seismic hazard assessment that considers a hybrid source model composed of faults and zones containing the remaining seismicity. The seismic-moment rate is used to distribute seismic potential, avoiding double counting. The approach is applied in SE Spain, a region of low-to-moderate seismicity. Results show a concentration of expected accelerations around fault traces using the hybrid approach, which is not appreciated in the classic approach using zones exclusively.

Description: 〈b〉An attempt to monitor seasonal dynamics of soil salinization in the Yellow River Delta region of China using Landsat data〈/b〉〈br〉 Hongyan Chen, Gengxing Zhao, Yuhuan Li, Danyang Wang, and Ying Ma〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-303,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 3 comments)〈br〉 In Kenli district in the Yellow River Delta (YRD) region of China, using Landsat data, the optimal inversion model of soil salt content (SSC) for different seasons was determined, the SSC exhibited a gradually increasing trend from the south-west to the north-east, and its seasonal dynamics were as that soil salinity accumulates in spring, decreases in summer, rises in autumn, and peaks in winter. The results can provide data support for the treatment and utilization of saline alkali soil.

Description: 〈b〉Spatial variability and potential maximum intensity of winter storms over Europe〈/b〉〈br〉 Michael A. Walz and Gregor C. Leckebusch〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-309,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Extra-tropical windstorms represent one of the biggest natural hazards for Europe. In this paper we use a method to categorise the tracks (based on the shape of the track) of these storms into three different groups. The characteristics of the storms in each of the three groups is then analysed with regards to size, duration or intensity. By using extreme-value statistics we can further estimate what would be a maximum intensity storm for each of the three groups.

Description: 〈b〉How the impacts of burst water mains are influenced by soil sand content〈/b〉〈br〉 Timothy S. Farewell, Simon Jude, and Oliver Pritchard〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2951-2968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2951-2018, 2018〈br〉 Sinkholes capture the attention of residents and local media. Cars fall through roads into holes caused by water escaping from burst water mains. To determine where impacts from burst pipes on other infrastructure are most likely, we investigated soil maps, infrastructure records and local media reports, and held workshops and interviews with infrastructure companies. We found that burst mains in high sand content soils were much more likely to impact roads, gas pipes, buildings and sewers.

Description: 〈b〉Using cellular automata to simulate wildfire propagation and to assist in fire prevention and fighting〈/b〉〈br〉 Joana G. Freire and Carlos C. DaCamara〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-227,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Cellular Automata are useful tools to simulate wildfire propagation. We design a Cellular Automata to simulate a severe wildfire that took place in Portugal in 2012 and resulted in almost 25 thousand hectares burned. The explosive stage is adequately modeled when refining the role played by the wind in fire spreading. Results show a probability of ignition out of the limits of the observed scar, an information that the model may help choosing locations to allocate resources for fire combat.

Description: 〈b〉Towards risk-based flood management in highly productive paddy rice cultivation – concept development and application to the Mekong Delta〈/b〉〈br〉 Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2859-2876, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018, 2018〈br〉 In this study we provide an estimation of flood damages and risks to rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta. The derived modelling concept explicitly takes plant phenomenology and timing of floods in a probabilistic modelling framework into account. This results in spatially explicit flood risk maps to rice cultivation, quantified as expected annual damage. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk of two land-use scenarios were estimated and discussed.

Description: 〈b〉Temporal evolution of flow-like landslide hazard for a road infrastructure in the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (southern Italy) under the effect of climate change〈/b〉〈br〉 Marco Uzielli, Guido Rianna, Fabio Ciervo, Paola Mercogliano, and Unni K. Eidsvig〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3019-3035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3019-2018, 2018〈br〉 Landslide hazard at a given location may change over time due to climate change, since the frequency and intensity of landslide-triggering factors such as rainfall can vary significantly. It is important for stakeholders and decision-makers to predict trends in landslide hazard to mitigate the risk of losing lives and material assets. This study contributes an innovative method for the prediction of future variations of rainfall-induced landslides and shows its application to an Italian site.

Description: 〈b〉Detectability of seismic waves from the submarine landslide that caused the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami〈/b〉〈br〉 Akio Katsumata, Yasuhiro Yoshida, Kenji Nakata, Kenichi Fujita, Masayuki Tanaka, Koji Tamaribuchi, Takahito Nishimiya, and Akio Kobayashi〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-317,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 On 17 July 1998, a tsunami caused serious damage on the northern coast of Papua New Guinea about 20 min after an earthquake of magnitude 7. The tsunami has been attributed to a submarine landslide that occurred about 13 min after the earthquake. We investigated whether evidence of the landslide could be identified in the seismic records for tsunami warning purpose, and concluded that the 1998 landslide was too small to be evident in the seismic records.

Description: 〈b〉Uncertainty quantification of flood mitigation predictions and implications for decision making〈/b〉〈br〉 Koen D. Berends, Menno W. Straatsma, Jord J. Warmink, and Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-325,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 River flooding is a major safety concern. Sophisticated models are used to design ways to decrease flood risk, but until recently it was not feasible to calculate how uncertain these model predictions are. Using a new approach, we have now quantified the uncertainty of twelve interventions along the River Waal. Results show significant, but not problematically high uncertainty. We demonstrate that the choice between interventions can be different when uncertainty is taken into account.

Description: 〈b〉Local-scale post-event assessments with GPS and UAV-based quick-response surveys: a pilot case from the Emilia–Romagna (Italy) coast〈/b〉〈br〉 Enrico Duo, Arthur Chris Trembanis, Stephanie Dohner, Edoardo Grottoli, and Paolo Ciavola〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2969-2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2969-2018, 2018〈br〉 This study illustrates the implementation of a local-scale post-event survey that combined GPS and UAV-based techniques with qualitative information collected through interviews with local stakeholders. The comprehensive approach employed in this case study was conducted on the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), in the immediate aftermath of an extreme event that impacted the shoreline on the 5-6 February 2015, called the St Agatha storm.

Description: 〈b〉Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (México) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955〈/b〉〈br〉 Andrea Bevilacqua, Abani K. Patra, Marcus I. Bursik, E. Bruce Pitman, José Luis Macías, Ricardo Saucedo, and David Hyman〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-294,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 We introduce a new prediction-oriented method for hazard assessment of volcaniclastic debris flows, based on multiple models. We apply our procedure to a case study of the 1955 Atenquique flow, using three widely used depth averaged models. Depending on how it is looked at, the exercise provides useful information in either model selection or data inversion. Connecting inverse problems and model uncertainty represents a fundamental challenge in the future development of multi-model solvers.

Description: 〈b〉The role of synoptic processes in mudflow formation in the piedmont areas of Uzbekistan〈/b〉〈br〉 Gavkhar Mamadjanova, Simon Wild, Michael A. Walz, and Gregor C. Leckebusch〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2893-2919, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2893-2018, 2018〈br〉 The focus of this study is mudflow response to atmospheric conditions, notably major weather types and their linkages with precipitation climatology initiating mudflow events in Uzbekistan. The desired outcome of this study is to eventually select representative weather types which can then be applied to climate change studies.

Description: 〈b〉Risk zoning of typhoon disasters in Zhejiang Province, China〈/b〉〈br〉 Yi Lu, Fumin Ren, and Weijun Zhu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2921-2932, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2921-2018, 2018〈br〉 Based on precipitation and wind data over the mainland of China during 1980–2014 and disaster and social data at the county level in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2012, we establish a comprehensive risk index for typhoon disasters and use it to zone areas of risk. Some interesting results have been obtained. The risk of typhoon disasters decreases from coastal areas to inland regions in Zhejiang Province. The comprehensive risk index is a good reflection of the risk of typhoon disasters.

Description: 〈b〉Quantification of extremal dependence in spatial natural hazard footprints: independence of windstorm gust speeds and its impact on aggregate losses〈/b〉〈br〉 Laura C. Dawkins and David B. Stephenson〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2933-2949, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2933-2018, 2018〈br〉 Natural hazard losses are sensitive to the dependency between extreme values of the hazard variable at different spatial locations. It is therefore important to correctly identify and quantify dependency to accurately model the hazard and its resulting losses. Through application to a large data set of windstorm hazard footprints, this study demonstrates how extreme-value methods can be used to explore extremal dependency and hazard losses in very high dimensional natural hazard data sets.

Description: 〈b〉Evaluating critical rainfall conditions for large-scale landslides by detecting event times from seismic records〈/b〉〈br〉 Hsien-Li Kuo, Guan-Wei Lin, Chi-Wen Chen, Hitoshi Saito, Ching-Weei Lin, Hongey Chen, and Wei-An Chao〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2877-2891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2877-2018, 2018〈br〉 Building an early-warning method for rainfall-induced landslides has been an aim of landslide studies to prevent or mitigate the impact of disasters. The time information of landslides is the linchpin; however, it has been difficult to get the time information. In the study, we applied the observation of landslide-induced seismic signals to extract the occurrence times of numerous large landslides. Furthermore, the common estimations of the rainfall thresholds for landslides were performed.

Description: 〈b〉Bivariate trend assessment of dust storm frequency in relation to climate drivers〈/b〉〈br〉 Reza Modarres〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-302,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 A dust storm is an event happened due to different climate and earth conditions. Recent changes in dust storm frequency in desert regions of Iran is suffering the people and natural and environmental resources. This study proposes a novel method to investigate the change of dust storm frequency which is related to climate change conditions. We see that the wind and temperature have direct effect on change in dust storm frequency and rainfall has inverse relation ship with dust storm frequency.

Description: 〈b〉Brief communication: Meteorological and climatological conditions associated with the 9 January 2018 post-fire debris flows in Montecito and Carpinteria, California, USA〈/b〉〈br〉 Nina S. Oakley, Forest Cannon, Robert Munroe, Jeremy T. Lancaster, David Gomberg, and F. Martin Ralph〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3037-3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3037-2018, 2018〈br〉 The 9 January 2018 post-fire debris flows in Montecito and Carpinteria, California, killed 23 people and destroyed over 100 homes. We examine the meteorological conditions of the event and find that a narrow band of high-intensity rainfall along a cold front triggered the debris flow. Observed rainfall rates were extreme, but not unprecedented for the region. This work increases awareness of these rainbands as a post-fire hazard in California and other midlatitude regions impacted by wildfire.

Description: 〈b〉Effects of the impact angle on the coefficient of restitution in rockfall analysis based on a medium-scale laboratory test〈/b〉〈br〉 Yanhai Wang, Wei Jiang, Shengguo Cheng, Pengcheng Song, and Cong Mao〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3045-3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3045-2018, 2018〈br〉 General laws regarding the effect of the impact angle on the coefficients of restitution occur regardless of the test scales and conditions. Increasing the impact angle results in a reduction of 〈i〉R〈/i〉〈sub〉n〈/sub〉, 〈i〉R〈/i〉〈sub〉v〈/sub〉 and 〈i〉R〈/i〉〈sub〉E〈/sub〉 and causes an increase in 〈i〉R〈/i〉〈sub〉t〈/sub〉. The rotation plays an important role in the effect of the impact angle. A higher percentage of kinetic energy converted to rotational energy always induces a higher 〈i〉R〈/i〉〈sub〉n〈/sub〉 and a lower 〈i〉R〈/i〉〈sub〉t〈/sub〉. The percentage can be associated with the impact angle and the rock sizes.

Description: 〈b〉Flood depth estimation by means of high-resolution SAR images and lidar data〈/b〉〈br〉 Fabio Cian, Mattia Marconcini, Pietro Ceccato, and Carlo Giupponi〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3063-3084, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3063-2018, 2018〈br〉 〈p〉When floods hit inhabited areas, great losses are usually registered in terms of both impacts on people (i.e., fatalities and injuries) and economic impacts on urban areas, commercial and productive sites, infrastructures, and agriculture. To properly assess these, several parameters are needed, among which flood depth is one of the most important as it governs the models used to compute damages in economic terms. This paper presents a simple yet effective semiautomatic approach for deriving very precise inundation depth. First, precise flood extent is derived employing a change detection approach based on the normalized difference flood index computed from high-resolution synthetic aperture radar imagery. Second, by means of a high-resolution lidar digital elevation model, water surface elevation is estimated through a statistical analysis of terrain elevation along the boundary lines of the identified flooded areas. Experimental results and quality assessment are given for the flood that occurred in the Veneto region, northeastern Italy, in 2010. In particular, the method proved fast and robust and, compared to hydrodynamic models, it requires sensibly less input information.〈/p〉

Description: 〈b〉The role of atmospheric rivers in compound events consisting of heavy precipitation and high storm surges along the Dutch coast〈/b〉〈br〉 Nina Ridder, Hylke de Vries, and Sybren Drijfhout〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3311-3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3311-2018, 2018〈br〉 The simultaneous occurrence of heavy precipitation and high coastal surge levels increases coastal flood risk. This study analyses the driving mechanisms behind these so-called compound events along the Dutch coast. It provides a first classification of events using the presence of atmospheric rivers (long filaments of high water vapour) and identifies differences in the meteorological conditions leading to events that can be used to setup an early warning system for coastal regions.

Description: 〈b〉Dependency of tropical cyclone risk on track in South Korea〈/b〉〈br〉 Chaehyeon C. Nam, Doo-Sun R. Park, Chang-Hoi Ho, and Deliang Chen〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3225-3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3225-2018, 2018〈br〉 This study shows that a small deviation of the tropical cyclone (TC) track in the west–east direction (less than 250 km smaller than the average radius of the TC) has a more dominant effect on the extent and distribution of TC damage than TC intensity or size. This suggests that track information should be considered more carefully in assessments of future TC risk.

Description: 〈b〉Flood Risk in a Range of Spatial Perspectives – from Global to Local〈/b〉〈br〉 Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Buda Su, Yanjun Wang, Guojie Wang, Guofu Wang, and Tong Jiang〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-336,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Considering flood risk composed of hazard, exposure and vulnerability from the global to the local scale, this manuscript reviewed and presented increasing observed flood losses and projections of flood hazard and losses. We acknowledge existence of multiple driving factors and of considerable uncertainty, in particular with regards to projections for the future. Finally, this paper analyses options for flood risk reduction from global framework to regional to local scales.

Description: 〈b〉Field survey of Typhoon Hato (2017) and a comparison with storm surge modeling in Macau〈/b〉〈br〉 Linlin Li, Jie Yang, Chuan-Yao Lin, Constance Ting Chua, Yu Wang, Kuifeng Zhao, Yun-Ta Wu, Philip Li-Fan Liu, Adam D. Switzer, Kai Meng Mok, Peitao Wang, and Dongju Peng〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3167-3178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3167-2018, 2018〈br〉 Typhoon Hato was one of the most damaging natural disaster events in the western Pacific region in 2017. It caused the the worst flooding in Macau since its instrumental records began in 1925. We present a high-resolution survey map recording inundation depths and distances at 278 sites in Macau. We provide a series of inundation maps under different tidal and sea levels. The maps that highlight adaptive strategies are essential in order to keep up with the pace of rising sea level.

Description: 〈b〉How awareness and confidence affect flood-risk precautionary behavior of Greek citizens: the role of perceptual and emotional mechanisms〈/b〉〈br〉 Katerina Papagiannaki, Vassiliki Kotroni, Kostas Lagouvardos, and Giorgos Papagiannakis〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-307,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The aim of this work is to advance knowledge on the mechanisms of flood precautionary behavior in an area not adequately addressed. Risk managers may identify gaps in risk communication, advance their understanding of citizens' precautionary behaviors, and adjust their strategies to improve flood resilience. The survey was launched by meteo.gr that is in the top5 websites of general interest. This work is part of the study of weather-related hazards and societal impact conducted in the IERSD.

Description: 〈b〉Perception of the flash flood hazard by the population of Mindelo, S. Vicente (Cape Verde)〈/b〉〈br〉 Bruno Martins, Adélia Nunes, Luciano Lourenço, and Fátima Castro〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-312,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The number of disasters related to natural hazards and their impact has significantly increased during the last decades. Floods hazard affect at least 20 000 lives, mostly because of the resulting homelessness. This study focus on risk perception based on individual characteristics and socioeconomic circumstances, which make people more susceptible to the impact of a hazardous event, in Mindelo, where little (or nothing) is known regarding the public perception of the risk posed by flash-floods.

Description: 〈b〉A high-resolution spatial ass essment of the impacts of drought variability on vegetation activity in Spain from 1981 to 2015〈/b〉〈br〉 Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Natalia Martin-Hernández, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Iván Noguera, and Mónica García〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-356,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Drought is a major driver of vegetation activity in Spain. Here we used a high-resolution remote sensing dataset spanning the period from 1981 to 2015 to assess the sensitivity of vegetation 23 types to drought across Spain. Results demonstrate that vegetation activity is controlled largely by the interannual variability of drought. Nevertheless, there are some considerable spatio-temporal variations, which can be linked to differences in land cover and aridity conditions.

Description: 〈b〉Radar-derived convective storms climatology for Prut River Basin: 2003−2017〈/b〉〈br〉 Sorin Burcea, Roxana Cică, and Roxana Bojariu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-354,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The mapping of convective storms in the area of the trans-boundary Prut river basin was developed using a 15-yr radar dataset (2003–2017). The analysis is based on data sampled on successive 6-min scans of the atmosphere, to detect and track the convective storms. The results highlighted a yearly, monthly, and daily variation of convective activity, but also spatial distribution patterns. The study of atmospheric convection is important in assessing the risks associated with extreme weather.

Description: 〈b〉Numerical Simulations of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Deposits Thicknesses and Emplacements〈/b〉〈br〉 Syamsidik, Musa Al'ala, Hermann M. Fritz, Mirza Fahmi, and Teuku Mudi Hafli〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-348,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The use of numerical simulations to study tsunami-induced sediment transport was rare in Indonesia until the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. This study aims to couple two hydrodynamic numerical models in order to reproduce tsunami-induced sediment deposits, i.e., their locations and thicknesses. Numerical simulations were performed using the Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) and Delft3D. Lhoong, in the Aceh Besar District-Indonesia, was selected as the study site of this research.

Description: 〈b〉A Taylor's power law in the Wenchuan earthquake sequence with fluctuation scaling〈/b〉〈br〉 Peijian Shi, Mei Li, Yang Li, Jie Liu, Haixia Shi, Tao Xie, and Chong Yue〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-315,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 A statistical method is tentatively utilized to study distribution properties of aftershocks of the Wenchuan sequence in the sight of energy release. The results show that the events in the Wenchuan sequence are not independent but mutual attraction, their spatio–temporal distribution tends to be nonrandom but definite and deterministic, and imply it is possible that this energy release can be predicted although we cannot accurately predict the occurrence time and locations of imminent events.

Description: 〈b〉A Remote Sensing–based Intensity-Duration Curve, Faifa Mountains, Saudi Arabia〈/b〉〈br〉 Sita Karki, Mohamed Sultan, Saleh A. Al-Sefry, Hassan M. Alharbi, Mustafa Kemal Emil, Racha Elkadiri, and Emad Abu Alfadail〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-282,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Construction of intensity-duration (ID) curves and early warning systems for landslides (EWSL) are hampered by the paucity of temporal and spatial archival data. We developed methodologies that could be used for the construction of an ID curve that could be used for the construction of an EWSL over the Faifa Mountains in the Red Sea Hills. The developed methodologies relies on temporal, readily available, archival Google Earth and Sentinel-1 imagery, precipitation measurements, and limited field data. These methodologies accurately distinguished landslide-producing storms from non–landslide producing ones and identified the locations of these landslides with an accuracy of 60 %.

Description: 〈b〉Pre-disaster mapping with drones: an urban case study in Victoria, BC, Canada〈/b〉〈br〉 Maja Kucharczyk and Chris H. Hugenholtz〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-318,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 We performed pre-disaster 3D mapping with a drone in downtown Victoria, BC, Canada. This was the first drone flight over a Canadian city approved by Canada’s aviation authority. We were legally constrained to using a specific drone. The goal was to assess the quality of the 3D map. Results indicate that the drone’s down-looking camera was insufficient for capturing building facades. To improve the 3D map, we suggest a future study with a similar drone and a camera that tilts for imaging facades.

Description: 〈b〉The impact of lightning and radar data assimilation on the performance of very short term rainfall forecast for two case studies in Italy〈/b〉〈br〉 Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Elenio Avolio, Olivier Caumont, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Stefano Dietrich〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-319,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 This study shows the possibility to improve the weather forecast at the very short range (0–3 h) using lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations. We consider two different events occurred over Italy, named Serano and Livorno, characterized by moderate and exceptional rainfall, respectively. The improvement given to the forecast by using the lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations is considerable, the best performance being obtained when using both data.

Description: 〈b〉Brief communication: Strengthening coherence between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction〈/b〉〈br〉 Jaroslav Mysiak, Sergio Castellari, Blaz Kurnik, Rob Swart, Patrick Pringle, Reimund Schwarze, Henk Wolters, Ad Jeuken, and Paul van der Linden〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3137-3143, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3137-2018, 2018〈br〉 Reducing disaster risks and adapting to climate change are ever more important policy goals. However, policies, methods, and practices across both policy areas often lack coherence, and opportunities are not fully exploited to build up resilience. The report "Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe" of the European Environment Agency identified several ways for how coherence and resilience can be built through knowledge sharing, collaboration, and investments.

Description: 〈b〉Brief Communication: Measuring rock decelerations and rotation changes during short-duration ground impacts〈/b〉〈br〉 Andrin Caviezel and Werner Gerber〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3145-3151, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3145-2018, 2018〈br〉 Anticipating the flight path of a bouncing object holds fascination for playing children and scientists alike. While the path of a ball can be judged easily, the erratic rebound behavior of complexly shaped forms are intriguing. Here, we focus on the timescales and rotation changes during real rock–ground impacts while traveling down a slope. Specialized sensors inside the rock track those changes and reveal contact times in the millisecond range defining the overall flight path behavior.

Description: 〈b〉Impact of wildfires on Canada's oil sands facilities〈/b〉〈br〉 Nima Khakzad〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3153-3166, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3153-2018, 2018〈br〉 The growing oil sands operations in Canada's wildlands on the one hand and an anticipated increase in the frequency of wildfires, due to global warming, on the other hand can jeopardize the safety and integrity of oil sands facilities. The present study aims to develop a methodology, based on the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System and quantitative risk assessment techniques, for assessing the impact of wildfires on wildland–industrial interfaces with an emphasis on oil sands facilities.

Description: 〈b〉Forecasting landslide mobility using an SPH model and ring shear strength tests: a case study〈/b〉〈br〉 Miao Yu, Yu Huang, Wenbin Deng, and Hualin Cheng〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3343-3353, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3343-2018, 2018〈br〉 Flow-like landslides, such as flow slides and debris avalanches, have caused serious infrastructure damage and casualties for centuries. Effective numerical simulation incorporating accurate soil mechanical parameters is essential for predicting post-failure landslide mobility. In this study, smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) incorporating soil ring shear test results were used to forecast the long-runout mobility for a landslide on an unstable slope in China.

Description: 〈b〉Simple rules to minimize exposure to coseismic landslide hazard〈/b〉〈br〉 David G. Milledge, Alexander L. Densmore, Dino Bellugi, Nick J. Rosser, Jack Watt, Gen Li, and Katie J. Oven〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-271,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 Mitigating landslide risk requires information on landslide hazard at a suitable scale to inform decisions. We develop simple rules to identify landslide hazard – the probability of being hit by a landslide – then test their performance using six existing landslide inventories from recent earthquakes. We find that the best rules are: 〈q〉minimize your maximum look angle to the skyline〈/q〉 and 〈q〉avoid steep (〉 10°) channels with many steep (〉 39°) areas that are upslope〈/q〉.

Description: 〈b〉Observations of positive sea surface temperature trends in the steadily shrinking Dead Sea〈/b〉〈br〉 Pavel Kishcha, Rachel T. Pinker, Isaac Gertman, Boris Starobinets, and Pinhas Alpert〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3007-3018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3007-2018, 2018〈br〉 Increasing warming of steadily shrinking Dead Sea surface water was observed during the period of 2000–2016. We found that a positive feedback loop between the steady shrinking of the Dead Sea and positive sea surface temperature (SST) trends causes the acceleration of Dead Sea shrinking. Our findings imply the following essential point: any meteorological, hydrological or geophysical process causing steady shrinking of the Dead Sea will contribute to positive trends in SST.

Description: 〈b〉Impact analysis of dynamical downscaling on the treatment of convection in a regional NWP model – COSMO: a case study during the passage of a very severe cyclonic storm 〈q〉OCKHI〈/q〉〈/b〉〈br〉 S. Roshny, D. Bala Subrahamanyam, T. J. Anurose, and Radhika Ramachandran〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-288,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Dynamical downscaling of an NWP model is closely related to the parameterization of convection. This is an unique study on a very severe cyclonic storm OCKHI over the Arabian Sea in which we explore the impact of downscaling of grid resolution in COSMO regional NWP model and investigate the effect of explicit treatment of convection on the performance of model. Switching off the convection parameterization yield good values of CAPE but lead to poor performance in terms of rainfall simulations.

Description: 〈b〉The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high-resolution global climate model data〈/b〉〈br〉 Matthew D. K. Priestley, Helen F. Dacre, Len C. Shaffrey, Kevin I. Hodges, and Joaquim G. Pinto〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2991-3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, 2018〈br〉 This study investigates the role of the clustering of extratropical cyclones in driving wintertime wind losses across a large European region. To do this over 900 years of climate model data have been used and analysed. The main conclusion of this work is that cyclone clustering acts to increase wind-driven losses in the winter by 10 %–20 % when compared to the losses from a random series of cyclones, with this specifically being for the higher loss years.

Description: 〈b〉Impact of airborne cloud radar reflectivity data assimilation on kilometre-scale NWP analyses and forecasts of heavy precipitation events〈/b〉〈br〉 Mary Borderies, Olivier Caumont, Julien Delanoë, Véronique Ducrocq, Nadia Fourrié, and Pascal Marquet〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-314,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The potential of W-band radar reflectivity to improve the quality of analyses and forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area is investigated. The 1D + 3DVar assimilation method has been adapted to assimilate the W-band reflectivity in the Météo-France kilometer-scale NWP model AROME. The results suggest that the joint assimilation of W-band reflectivity and horizontal wind profiles lead to a slight improvement of moisture analyses and rainfall precipitation forecasts.

Description: 〈b〉A susceptibility-based rainfall threshold approach for landslide occurrence〈/b〉〈br〉 Elise Monsieurs, Olivier Dewitte, and Alain Demoulin〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-316,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 We propose in this study a fundamentally new approach for the definition of minimum rainfall required for the initiation of landslides based on satellite-derived antecedent rainfall estimates directly coupled with data on surface susceptibility for landslides. We apply our approach in the western branch of the East African Rift and provide first regional rainfall thresholds for landsliding in tropical Africa.

Description: 〈b〉Regional Interaction Frameworks to Support Multi-Hazard Approaches to Disaster Risk Reduction (With an Application to Guatemala)〈/b〉〈br〉 Joel C. Gill, Bruce D. Malamud, Edy Manolo Barillas, and Alex Guerra Noriega〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-363,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This paper describes a replicable approach to characterising relationships between natural hazards. Guatemala is exposed to multiple natural hazards, which do not always occur independently. There can be interactions between natural hazards. For example, one hazard may trigger multiple secondary hazards, which can subsequently trigger further hazards. Here we use diverse evidence of such interactions to construct matrices of hazard interactions in Guatemala at national and sub-national scales.

Description: 〈b〉Precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at hourly resolution〈/b〉〈br〉 Peter Berg, Ole B. Christensen, Katharina Klehmet, Geert Lenderink, Jonas Olsson, Claas Teichmann, and Wei Yang〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-362,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 A state-of-the-art regional climate model ensemble for Europe is investigated for extreme precipitation intensities. The models poorly reproduce short duration events of less than a few hours. Further, there is poor connection to some known hot-spots for extremes. The model performance is much improved at twelve hour durations. Projected future increases scales with seasonal mean temperature change, within a range of a few to over 10 percent per degree Celsius.

Description: 〈b〉A global comparison of community-based responses to natural hazards〈/b〉〈br〉 Barbara Paterson and Anthony Charles〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-353,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 We analysed over 300 community case studies, and categorised and compared actions taken in different regions of the world and in response to different types of natural hazards. A global overview of local response actions can help local communities, policy makers and funding agencies to develop effective strategies to prepare for and manage natural disasters. More case studies are needed, especially from Africa, to build a better picture of the actions that communities are implementing.

Description: 〈b〉Spatial distribution of water level impact to back-barrier bays〈/b〉〈br〉 Alfredo L. Aretxabaleta, Neil K. Ganju, Zafer Defne, and Richard P. Signell〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-320,2018〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Water level in bays is affected by open ocean changes and wind. Tides are more dampened in the bays than storm surge and sea level rise. We compare observed and modeled levels with ocean conditions and combine them with analytical models. The model matches observations: storm: 70–100 % of ocean levels and tides: 10–55 %. The approach can evaluate the response to landscape changes and future conditions. Spatial estimates of water level can inform decisions on inlet management and flooding hazard.