ALBERT

Description: A catalog of high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2867-2882, 2014 Author(s): P. Stucki, S. Brönnimann, O. Martius, C. Welker, M. Imhof, N. von Wattenwyl, and N. Philipp In recent decades, extremely hazardous windstorms have caused enormous losses to buildings, infrastructure and forests in Switzerland. This has increased societal and scientific interest in the intensity and frequency of historical high-impact storms. However, high-resolution wind data and damage statistics mostly span recent decades only. For this study, we collected quantitative (e.g., volumes of windfall timber, losses relating to buildings) and descriptive (e.g., forestry or insurance reports) information on the impact of historical windstorms. To define windstorm severity, normalized and declustered quantitative data were processed by extreme value statistics. Descriptive information was classified using a conceptual guideline. Validation with independent damage information, as well as comparison with wind measurements and a reanalysis, indicates that the most hazardous winter storms are captured, while too few moderate windstorms are detected. Strong storms in the wind measurements and reanalysis are thus added to the catalog. The final catalog encompasses approximately 240 high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859. It features three robust severity classes and contains eight extreme windstorms. Evidence of high winter storm activity in the early and late 20th century compared to the mid-20th century in both damage and wind data indicates a co-variability of hazard and related damage on decadal timescales.

Description: A GIS-based model to estimate flood consequences and the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in urban areas Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2847-2865, 2014 Author(s): R. Albano, A. Sole, J. Adamowski, and L. Mancusi Efficient decision-making regarding flood risk reduction has become a priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries. Risk analysis methods and techniques are a useful tool for evaluating costs and benefits of possible interventions. Within this context, a methodology to estimate flood consequences was developed in this paper that is based on GIS, and integrated with a model that estimates the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in an urban area. The majority of the currently available approaches do not properly analyse road network connections and dependencies within systems, and as such a loss of roads could cause significant damages and problems to emergency services in cases of flooding. The proposed model is unique in that it provides a maximum-impact estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk), in the emergency phase. The results of a case study in the Puglia region in southern Italy are described to illustrate the practical applications of this newly proposed approach. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for defining a hierarchy between different infrastructure in the urban area through the identification of particular components whose operation and efficiency are critical for emergency management. This information can be used by decision-makers to prioritize risk reduction interventions in flood emergencies in urban areas, given limited financial resources.

Description: Wind waves in the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2883-2897, 2014 Author(s): V. S. Arkhipkin, F. N. Gippius, K. P. Koltermann, and G. V. Surkova In this study we describe the wind wave fields in the Black Sea. The general aims of the work were the estimation of statistical wave parameters and the assessment of interannual and seasonal wave parameter variability. The domain of this study was the entire Black Sea. Wave parameters were calculated by means of the SWAN wave model on a 5 × 5 km rectangular grid. Initial conditions (wind speed and direction) for the period between 1949 and 2010 were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. According to our calculations the average significant wave height on the Black Sea does not exceed 0.7 m. Areas of most significant heavy sea are the southwestern and the northeastern parts of the sea as expressed in the spatial distribution of significant wave heights, wave lengths and periods. Besides, long-term annual variations of wave parameters were estimated. Thus, linear trends of the annual total duration of storms and of their quantity are nearly stable over the hindcast period. However, an intensification of storm activity is observed in the 1960s–1970s.

Description: Factors affecting flood insurance purchase in residential properties in Johor, Malaysia Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3297-3310, 2014 Author(s): U. G. Aliagha, T. E. Jin, W. W. Choong, M. Nadzri Jaafar, and H. M. Ali High-impact floods have become a virtually annual experience in Malaysia, yet flood insurance has remained a grossly neglected part of comprehensive integrated flood risk management. Using discriminant analysis, this study seeks to identify the demand-side variables that best predict flood insurance purchase and risk aversion between two groups of residential homeowners in three districts of Johor State, Malaysia: those who purchased flood insurance and those who did not. Our results revealed an overall 34% purchase rate, with Kota Tinggi district having the highest (44%) and thus the highest degree of flood risk aversion. The Wilks' lambda F test for equality of group means, standardised discriminant function coefficients, structure correlation, and canonical correlation has clearly shown that there are strong significant attribute differences between the two groups of homeowners, based on the measures of objective flood risk exposure, subjective risk perception, and socio-economic cum demographic variables. However, the measures of subjective risk perception were found to be more predictive of flood insurance purchase and flood risk aversion.

Description: Moraine-dammed lake failures in Patagonia and assessment of outburst susceptibility in the Baker Basin Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3243-3259, 2014 Author(s): P. Iribarren Anacona, K.P. Norton, and A. Mackintosh Glacier retreat since the Little Ice Age has resulted in the development or expansion of hundreds of glacial lakes in Patagonia. Some of these lakes have produced large (≥ 10 6 m 3 ) Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) damaging inhabited areas. GLOF hazard studies in Patagonia have been mainly based on the analysis of short-term series (≤ 50 years) of flood data and until now no attempt has been made to identify the relative susceptibility of lakes to failure. Power schemes and associated infrastructure are planned for Patagonian basins that have historically been affected by GLOFs, and we now require a thorough understanding of the characteristics of dangerous lakes in order to assist with hazard assessment and planning. In this paper, the conditioning factors of 16 outbursts from moraine-dammed lakes in Patagonia were analysed. These data were used to develop a classification scheme designed to assess outburst susceptibility, based on image classification techniques, flow routine algorithms and the Analytical Hierarchy Process. This scheme was applied to the Baker Basin, Chile, where at least seven moraine-dammed lakes have failed in historic time. We identified 386 moraine-dammed lakes in the Baker Basin of which 28 were classified with high or very high outburst susceptibility. Commonly, lakes with high outburst susceptibility are in contact with glaciers and have moderate (〉 8°) to steep (〉 15°) dam outlet slopes, akin to failed lakes in Patagonia. The proposed classification scheme is suitable for first-order GLOF hazard assessments in this region. However, rapidly changing glaciers in Patagonia make detailed analysis and monitoring of hazardous lakes and glaciated areas upstream from inhabited areas or critical infrastructure necessary, in order to better prepare for hazards emerging from an evolving cryosphere.

Description: Epic landslide erosion from mountain roads in Yunnan, China – challenges for sustainable development Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3093-3104, 2014 Author(s): R. C. Sidle, M. Ghestem, and A. Stokes Expanding systems of mountain roads in developing countries have significantly increased the risk of landslides and sedimentation, and have created vulnerabilities for residents and aquatic resources. We measured landslide erosion along seven road segments in steep terrain in the upper Salween River basin, Yunnan, China and estimated sediment delivery to channels. Landslide erosion rates along the roads ranged from 2780 to 48 235 Mg ha −1 yr −1 , the upper end of this range being the highest rate ever reported along mountain roads. The two roads with the highest landslide erosion (FG1 = 12 966 Mg ha −1 yr −1 ; DXD = 48 235 Mg ha −1 yr −1 ) had some of the highest sediment delivery rates to channels (about 80 and 86%, respectively). Overall, 3 times more landslides occurred along cut slopes compared to fill slopes, but fill slope failures had a combined mass 〉 1.3 times that of cut slope failures. Many small landslides occurred along road cuts, but these were often trapped on the road surface. Given the magnitude of the landslide problem and the lack of attention to this issue, a more sustainable approach for mountain road development is outlined based on an analysis of landslide susceptibility and how thresholds for landslide trigger mechanisms would be modified by road location and different construction techniques.

Description: Evaluation of forest fire models on a large observation database Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3077-3091, 2014 Author(s): J. B. Filippi, V. Mallet, and B. Nader This paper presents the evaluation of several fire propagation models using a large set of observed fires. The observation base is composed of 80 Mediterranean fire cases of different sizes, which come with the limited information available in an operational context (burned surface and approximative ignition point). Simulations for all cases are carried out with four different front velocity models. The results are compared with several error scoring methods applied to each of the 320 simulations. All tasks are performed in a fully automated manner, with simulations run as first guesses with no tuning for any of the models or cases. This approach leads to a wide range of simulation performance, including some of the bad simulation results to be expected in an operational context. Disregarding the quality of the input data, it is found that the models can be ranked based on their performance and that the most complex models outperform the more empirical ones. Data and source codes used for this paper are freely available to the community.

Description: Goal-oriented networks and capacity building for natural hazards – examples in the Dresden region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 81-94, 2014 Author(s): G. Hutter Networks and networking are important for building social capacities for natural hazards. However, up to now, it has been an open question which types of networks contribute to capacity building under certain circumstances. The paper focuses on the type of a goal-oriented network. The distinction between goal orientation and goal directedness is used to show the following: goal directedness of networks to build capacities for natural hazards involves intensive and continuous processes of "sensemaking" (Weick, 1995) to specify the network goal. This process of specifying an initial goal statement is important in small and large networks at the regional level. The governance form of a lead organization network facilitates goal specification. The paper illustrates these findings through evidence from two case studies conducted in the Dresden region in Germany.

Description: Assessing the quality of landslide susceptibility maps – case study Lower Austria Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 95-118, 2014 Author(s): H. Petschko, A. Brenning, R. Bell, J. Goetz, and T. Glade Landslide susceptibility maps are helpful tools to identify areas potentially prone to future landslide occurrence. As more and more national and provincial authorities demand for these maps to be computed and implemented in spatial planning strategies, several aspects of the quality of the landslide susceptibility model and the resulting classified map are of high interest. In this study of landslides in Lower Austria, we focus on the model form uncertainty to assess the quality of a flexible statistical modelling technique, the generalized additive model (GAM). The study area (15 850 km 2 ) is divided into 16 modelling domains based on lithology classes. A model representing the entire study area is constructed by combining these models. The performances of the models are assessed using repeated k -fold cross-validation with spatial and random subsampling. This reflects the variability of performance estimates arising from sampling variation. Measures of spatial transferability and thematic consistency are applied to empirically assess model quality. We also analyse and visualize the implications of spatially varying prediction uncertainties regarding the susceptibility map classes by taking into account the confidence intervals of model predictions. The 95% confidence limits fall within the same susceptibility class in 85% of the study area. Overall, this study contributes to advancing open communication and assessment of model quality related to statistical landslide susceptibility models.

Description: Review Article: Structural flood-protection measures referring to several European case studies Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 135-142, 2014 Author(s): A. Kryžanowski, M. Brilly, S. Rusjan, and S. Schnabl The paper presents a review of structural measures that were taken to cope with floods in some cities along the Danube River, such as Vienna, Bratislava, and Belgrade. These cities were also considered as case studies within the KULTURisk project. The structural measures are reviewed and compared to each other according to the type, duration of application, the return period of the design flood event, how the project measures are integrated into spatial planning and the problems that occur in the flood defences today. Based on this review, some suggestions are given on how to improve the flood risk management in flood-prone areas.

Description: Modeling volcanic ash resuspension – application to the 14–18 October 2011 outbreak episode in central Patagonia, Argentina Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 119-133, 2014 Author(s): A. Folch, L. Mingari, M. S. Osores, and E. Collini Volcanic fallout deposits from the June 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption on central Patagonia were remobilized in several occasions months after their emplacement. In particular, during 14–18 October 2011, an intense outbreak episode generated widespread volcanic clouds that were dispersed across Argentina, causing multiple impacts in the environment, affecting the air quality and disrupting airports. Fine ash particles in volcanic fallout deposits can be resuspended under favorable meteorological conditions, particularly during strong wind episodes in arid environments with low soil moisture and poor vegetation coverage. As opposed to eruption-formed ash clouds, modeling of resuspension-formed ash clouds has received little attention. In consequence, there are no emission schemes specially developed and calibrated for resuspended volcanic ash, and few operational products exists to model and forecast the formation and dispersal of resuspension ash clouds. Here we implement three dust emission schemes of increasing complexity in the FALL3D tephra dispersal model and use the 14–18 October 2011 outbreak episode as a model test case. We calibrate the emission schemes and validate the results of the coupled WRF–ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting – Advanced Research WRF)/FALL3D modeling system using satellite imagery and measurements of visibility (a quantity related to total suspended particle concentration at the surface) and particulate matter (PM 10 ) concentration at several meteorological and air quality stations located at Argentina and Uruguay. Our final goal is to test the capability of the modeling system to become, in the near future, an operational forecast product for volcanic ash resuspension events.

Description: Sensitivity and evaluation of current fire risk and future projections due to climate change: the case study of Greece Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 143-153, 2014 Author(s): A. Karali, M. Hatzaki, C. Giannakopoulos, A. Roussos, G. Xanthopoulos, and V. Tenentes Current trends in the Mediterranean climate, and more specifically in Greece, indicate longer and more intense summer droughts that even extend out of season. In connection to this, the frequency of forest fire occurrence and intensity is on the rise. In the present study, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is used in order to investigate the relationship between fire risk and meteorological conditions in Greece. FWI is a meteorologically based index designed in Canada and used worldwide, including the Mediterranean Basin, to estimate fire danger in a generalised fuel type based solely on weather observations. Here, an evaluation of the index is initially performed for the Greek territory using fire observations that cover a 15 yr period. Three critical fire risk threshold values are established for the area of Greece based on daily mean meteorological data: FWI = 15, FWI = 30 and FWI = 45, increasing from the northwest to the southeast. Subsequently, a regional climate model is employed providing input for the FWI system to investigate the impacts of climate change on fire risk for two future time periods, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, under the A1B emissions scenario. Days with critical fire risk are expected to increase by as many as 50 days per year by the end of the century.

Description: Assessment methodology for the prediction of landslide dam hazard Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 557-567, 2014 Author(s): S. F. Dal Sasso, A. Sole, S. Pascale, F. Sdao, A. Bateman Pinzòn, and V. Medina This paper represents a contribution to the study of hazard caused by the interaction between landslides and river courses. The effects of such interferences are often catastrophic and could include the formation of upstream lakes, potential dam failure, river bed dynamics and morphological alterations. These scenarios could be substantially reduced if it was possible to predict the eventuality that a moving landslide would block the river. This is a complex topic because it involves composite geomorphic phenomena concerning both hillslope and river systems and their interpretation, through model approaches, is still under development and testing. In this study, a methodology developed in the framework of European Research Project IMPRINTS (FP7) was adopted and integrated in order to identify the areas of triggering and propagation of landslides and to characterize the possible scenarios of the interaction with river networks. Different deterministic and probabilistic approaches, calibrated using a case test in the middle valley of the Noce River in Basilicata (Italy), were applied and compared at basin scale.

Description: Landslide and slope stability evaluation in the historical town of Kruja, Albania Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 545-556, 2014 Author(s): Y. Muceku and O. Korini This paper describes landslides and slope stability evaluation in the urban area of Kruja, Albania. Kruja is a historical and heritage center, due to the existence of many important cultural monuments, including "Skanderbeg" castle and Bazaar square, etc. The urban area of Kruja has been affected by landslide effects, in the past and also the present. From this phenomenon many engineering objects such as buildings, roads, etc., are damaged and demolished. From engineering geological mapping at scale 1:5000 it is observed that many active landslides have dramatically increased in activity since the 1980s. The landslide types found in the studied area are earthslides, debris flow, as well as rockfall and rock rolling. Also, from field works and laboratory analysis, the slope stability of the whole urban area has been determined; for this purpose the studied zone is divided into stable and unstable areas, which helps to better understand mass movement activity as one of the most harmful hazards of geodynamic phenomena.

Description: Results of the post flash-flood disaster investigations in the Transylvanian Depression (Romania) during the last decade (2001–2010) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 535-544, 2014 Author(s): V. Arghiuş, A. Ozunu, I. Samara, and G. Roşian Flash-flood disasters are very rare in the Transylvanian Depression. In the last decades just three events were signalled in the study area, all of them during the last 10 years. The flash floods occurring in the study area during the last decade had a significant impact on several localities situated at the Transylvanian Depression border. Based on the post flash-flood investigation, the present study intends to find out the main characteristics of the flash floods and the causes that have led to disasters in a region rarely affected by such kinds of events. Analyzing the hydrological data, it has been seen that the maximum intensity of the flash floods was observed in the upper and middle basins. By comparing the unit peak discharges from the studied region with other specific peak discharges related to the significant flash floods from Romania, it was noticed that the events from the Transylvanian Depression have moderate to low intensity. On the other hand, the results showed that besides high stream power and unexpected character common to flash floods, the inappropriate flood risk management measures increased the dimension of the negative effects, leading to tens of lives lost and economical damages of tens of millions of dollars.

Description: Application of GA–SVM method with parameter optimization for landslide development prediction Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 525-533, 2014 Author(s): X. Z. Li and J. M. Kong Prediction of the landslide development process is always a hot issue in landslide research. So far, many methods for landslide displacement series prediction have been proposed. The support vector machine (SVM) has been proved to be a novel algorithm with good performance. However, the performance strongly depends on the right selection of the parameters ( C and γ) of the SVM model. In this study, we present an application of genetic algorithm and support vector machine (GA–SVM) method with parameter optimization in landslide displacement rate prediction. We selected a typical large-scale landslide in a hydro-electrical engineering area of southwest China as a case. On the basis of analyzing the basic characteristics and monitoring data of the landslide, a single-factor GA–SVM model and a multi-factor GA–SVM model of the landslide were built. Moreover, the models were compared with single-factor and multi-factor SVM models of the landslide. The results show that the four models have high prediction accuracies, but the accuracies of GA–SVM models are slightly higher than those of SVM models, and the accuracies of multi-factor models are slightly higher than those of single-factor models for the landslide prediction. The accuracy of the multi-factor GA–SVM models is the highest, with the smallest root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0009 and the highest relation index (RI) of 0.9992.

Description: The anomalous low and high temperatures of 2012 over Greece – an explanation from a meteorological and climatological perspective Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 501-507, 2014 Author(s): K. Tolika, P. Maheras, I. Pytharoulis, and C. Anagnostopoulou 2012 was the hottest year in Greece on the basis of the available record dating back to 1958, displaying at the same time the widest annual temperature range. During the summer and autumn months, numerous regions in the domain of study experienced record-breaking maximum and minimum temperatures. Conversely, the winter period was particularly cold and January one of the coldest months over the last 55 yr. The analysis of the cold period indicates that the synoptic conditions resemble the positive phase of the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMP). The predominance of these cool conditions seems to be related primarily to an intense NNW or NNE atmospheric circulation, as a consequence of the positive EMP phase. Moreover, the reduction in the floating sea ice emerges as a key driver of the formation of a low-pressure pattern and the reinforcement of the trough south of Scandinavia, which in turn strengthened the Siberia High east of the trough. This reinforcement resulted in a blocking pattern and in favorable conditions for the EMP formation. The atmospheric circulation during the prolonged high-temperature period resembles, respectively, the negative phase of North Sea–Caspian Pattern teleconnection. The observed positive pole, in conjunction with the strong southwestern circulation, results in temperature increases and in the development of a smooth pressure field that contributes to the weakening of the Etesian winds and therefore to calm conditions over the continental areas.

Description: Evaluation of wildland fire smoke plume dynamics and aerosol load using UV scanning lidar and fire–atmosphere modelling during the Mediterranean Letia 2010 experiment Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 509-523, 2014 Author(s): V. Leroy-Cancellieri, P. Augustin, J. B. Filippi, C. Mari, M. Fourmentin, F. Bosseur, F. Morandini, and H. Delbarre Vegetation fires emit large amount of gases and aerosols which are detrimental to human health. Smoke exposure near and downwind of fires depends on the fire propagation, the atmospheric circulations and the burnt vegetation. A better knowledge of the interaction between wildfire and atmosphere is a primary requirement to investigate fire smoke and particle transport. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the usefulness of an UV scanning lidar to characterise the fire smoke plume and consequently validate fire–atmosphere model simulations. An instrumented burn was conducted in a Mediterranean area typical of ones frequently subject to wildfire with low dense shrubs. Using lidar measurements positioned near the experimental site, fire smoke plume was thoroughly characterised by its optical properties, edge and dynamics. These parameters were obtained by combining methods based on lidar inversion technique, wavelet edge detection and a backscatter barycentre technique. The smoke plume displacement was determined using a digital video camera coupled with the lidar. The simulation was performed using a mesoscale atmospheric model in a large eddy simulation configuration (Meso-NH) coupled to a fire propagation physical model (ForeFire), taking into account the effect of wind, slope and fuel properties. A passive numerical scalar tracer was injected in the model at fire location to mimic the smoke plume. The simulated fire smoke plume width remained within the edge smoke plume obtained from lidar measurements. The maximum smoke injection derived from lidar backscatter coefficients and the simulated passive tracer was around 200 m. The vertical position of the simulated plume barycentre was systematically below the barycentre derived from the lidar backscatter coefficients due to the oversimplified properties of the passive tracer compared to real aerosol particles. Simulated speed and horizontal location of the plume compared well with the observations derived from the videography and lidar method, suggesting that fire convection and advection were correctly taken into account.

Description: A model-based study of the wind regime over the Corinthian Gulf Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 459-472, 2014 Author(s): I. Koletsis, V. Kotroni, and K. Lagouvardos The Corinthian Gulf is a narrow sea-level passage surrounded by a steep complex topography that consists of high mountains as well as elevated and sea-level gaps and straits. The complex terrain is expected to affect the wind flow in the area that often experiences high winds, with important consequences on the commercial and recreational activities over the gulf's maritime area. For that reason, a model-based study of the wind regime over the Corinthian Gulf has been created, as observational data over the area are recent and spatially sparse. Analysis of 5 yr of data from the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5) model reveals that the wind regime of the gulf is greatly influenced by the topography. Easterly winds occur more frequently and are stronger in the maritime area in the western edge of the gulf, with a frequency of occurrence on the order of 70%. Moreover, the most intense wind events at this area occur during the winter season (December, January, and February). Finally the paper also provides a discussion on the synoptic patterns, which lead to the strongest wind events in the studied area.

Description: Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 473-483, 2014 Author(s): M. Müller and M. Kaspar After an overview of existing methods, we present a novel method of "event-adjusted" evaluation of extremeness of weather and climate events. It is based on optimization of both the considered area and the time duration for every event. The method consists of three steps: (i) estimation of return periods of a representative variable at individual sites, performed separately for various time windows; (ii) spatial interpolation of the point return period data; and (iii) searching the area and the time window in which the extremeness of the event was maximum. The extremeness is quantified as the common logarithm of the spatial geometric mean of the return periods multiplied by the radius of a circle of the same area as the one over which the geometric mean is taken. The maximum product is referred to as the weather extremity index (WEI). Two precipitation events, which affected the Czech Republic in May and in August 2010, were evaluated by the WEI for illustration. Validation of the method on sufficiently long data series is still needed. Moreover, the WEI is generally applicable regardless of the studied phenomenon (heavy rains, heat waves, windstorms, etc.). This makes it possible to study various weather and climate extremes from the viewpoint of possible recent and future changes in their frequency, seasonal distribution, and circulation conditions accompanying them.

Description: Investigating volcanic hazard in Cape Verde Islands through geophysical monitoring: network description and first results Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 485-499, 2014 Author(s): B. Faria and J. F. B. D. Fonseca We describe a new geophysical network deployed in the Cape Verde Archipelago for the assessment and monitoring of volcanic hazards as well as the first results from the network. Across the archipelago, the ages of volcanic activity range from ca. 20 Ma to present. In general, older islands are in the east and younger ones are in the west, but there is no clear age progression of eruptive activity as widely separated islands have erupted contemporaneously on geological timescales. The overall magmatic rate is low, and there are indications that eruptive activity is episodic, with intervals between episodes of intense activity ranging from 1 to 4 Ma. Although only Fogo Island has experienced eruptions (mainly effusive) in the historic period (last 550 yr), Brava and Santo Antão have experienced numerous geologically recent eruptions, including violent explosive eruptions, and show felt seismic activity and geothermal activity. Evidence for recent volcanism in the other islands is more limited and the emphasis has therefore been on monitoring of the three critical islands of Fogo, Brava and Santo Antão, where volcanic hazard levels are highest. Geophysical monitoring of all three islands is now in operation. The first results show that on Fogo, the seismic activity is dominated by hydrothermal events and volcano-tectonic events that may be related to settling of the edifice after the 1995 eruption; in Brava by volcano-tectonic events (mostly offshore), and in Santo Antão by volcano-tectonic events, medium-frequency events and harmonic tremor. Both in Brava and in Santo Antão, the recorded seismicity indicates that relatively shallow magmatic systems are present and causing deformation of the edifices that may include episodes of dike intrusion.

Description: Karst show caves – how DTN technology as used in space assists automatic environmental monitoring and tourist protection – experiment in Postojna Cave Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 443-457, 2014 Author(s): F. Gabrovšek, B. Grašič, M. Z. Božnar, P. Mlakar, M. Udén, and E. Davies The paper presents an experiment demonstrating a novel and successful application of delay- and disruption-tolerant networking (DTN) technology for automatic data transfer in a karst cave early warning and measuring system. The experiment took place inside the Postojna Cave in Slovenia, which is open to tourists. Several automatic meteorological measuring stations are set up inside the cave, as an adjunct to the surveillance infrastructure; the regular data transfer provided by the DTN technology allows the surveillance system to take on the role of an early warning system (EWS). One of the stations is set up alongside the railway tracks, which allows the tourist to travel inside the cave by train. The experiment was carried out by placing a DTN "data mule" (a DTN-enabled computer with WiFi connection) on the train and by upgrading the meteorological station with a DTN-enabled WiFi transmission system. When the data mule is in the wireless drive-by mode, it collects measurement data from the station over a period of several seconds as the train without stopping passes the stationary equipment, and delivers data at the final train station by the cave entrance. This paper describes an overview of the experimental equipment and organization allowing the use of a DTN system for data collection and an EWS inside karst caves where there is regular traffic of tourists and researchers.

Description: Numerical simulations of tsunamis generated by underwater volcanic explosions at Karymskoye lake (Kamchatka, Russia) and Kolumbo volcano (Aegean Sea, Greece) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 401-412, 2014 Author(s): M. Ulvrová, R. Paris, K. Kelfoun, and P. Nomikou Increasing human activities along the coasts of the world provoke the necessity to assess tsunami hazard from different sources (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity). In this paper, we simulate tsunamis generated by underwater volcanic explosions from (1) a submerged vent in a shallow water lake (Karymskoye Lake, Kamchatka), and (2) from Kolumbo submarine volcano (7 km NE of Santorini, Aegean Sea, Greece). The 1996 tsunami in Karymskoye lake is a well-documented example and thus serves as a case study for validating the calculations. The numerical model reproduces realistically the tsunami run-ups measured onshore. Systematic numerical study of tsunamis generated by explosions of the Kolumbo volcano is then conducted for a wide range of energies. Results show that in case of reawakening, the Kolumbo volcano might represent a significant tsunami hazard for the northern, eastern and southern coasts of Santorini, even for small-power explosions.

Description: The snow storm of 8 March 2010 in Catalonia (Spain): a paradigmatic wet-snow event with a high societal impact Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 427-441, 2014 Author(s): M. C. Llasat, M. Turco, P. Quintana-Seguí, and M. Llasat-Botija A heavy precipitation event swept over Catalonia (NE Spain) on 8 March 2010, with a total amount that exceeded 100 mm locally and snowfall of more than 60 cm near the coast. Unusual for this region and at this time of the year, this snowfall event affected mainly the coastal region and was accompanied by thunderstorms and strong wind gusts in some areas. Most of the damage was due to "wet snow", a kind of snow that favours accretion on power lines and causes line-breaking and subsequent interruption of the electricity supply. This paper conducts an interdisciplinary analysis of the event to show its great societal impact and the role played by the recently developed social networks (it has been called the first "Snowfall 2.0"), as well to analyse the meteorological factors associated with the major damage, and to propose an indicator that could summarise them. With this aim, the paper introduces the event and its societal impact and compares it with other important snowfalls that have affected the Catalan coast, using the PRESSGAMA database. The second part of the paper shows the event's main meteorological features and analyses the near-surface atmospheric variables responsible for the major damage through the application of the SAFRAN (Système d'analyse fournissant des renseignements atmosphériques à la neige) mesoscale analysis, which, together with the proposed "wind, wet-snow index" (WWSI), allows to estimate the severity of the event. This snow storm provides further evidence of our vulnerability to natural hazards and highlights the importance of a multidisciplinary approach in analysing societal impact and the meteorological factors responsible for this kind of event.

Description: Regional economic impacts of natural hazards – the case of the 2005 Alpine flood event in Tyrol (Austria) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 359-378, 2014 Author(s): C. Pfurtscheller Natural hazards have substantial impacts on economies on all scales. While the measurement of direct effects seems manageable, less is known about the dimensions of economic effects, especially on local and regional scales. The lack of standardized terminology, empirical data and methods currently hampers profound decision support. In our study of the 2005 flood event in the Federal State of Tyrol (Austria), which triggered about 264 million Euros in direct losses, we surveyed companies from all sectors of the economy to identify the drivers of economic effects. The main aim of the study was to assess the regional economic impacts on the gross regional product by the 2005 floods without macro-economic modelling techniques using bottom-up data. Using basic quantitative and qualitative methods, we established and analysed a data pool of questionnaire and interview results as well as direct loss data. Based on this empirical evidence, we estimated the decline in gross regional product in the study area at NUTS-3 level. We observed that disrupted traffic networks, for instance, had very negative effects on the regional economy. In addition, we identified economic winners of severe hazard impacts and estimated the amount of increasing economic flows (economic stimuli), based on compensation payments. Finally, the net effect can be estimated balancing the negative and positive effects of the flood event. The methods and results of this study can help to improve ex post loss estimations, and with it, ex ante methods for the cost efficiency of risk reduction measures, e.g. cost–benefit analysis. However, much effort is needed to improve the data basis on economic effects measured as a change in economic flows.

Description: The value of integrating information from multiple hazards for flood risk analysis and management Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 379-400, 2014 Author(s): J. T. Castillo-Rodríguez, I. Escuder-Bueno, L. Altarejos-García, and A. Serrano-Lombillo This article presents a methodology for estimating flood risk in urban areas integrating pluvial flooding, river flooding and failure of both small and large dams. The first part includes a review of basic concepts on flood risk analysis, evaluation and management. Flood risk analyses may be developed at local, regional and national level, however a general methodology to perform a quantitative flood risk analysis including different flood hazards is still required. The second part describes the proposed methodology, which presents an integrated approach – combining pluvial, river flooding and flooding from dam failure, as applied to a case study: an urban area located downstream of a dam under construction. The methodology enhances the approach developed within the SUFRI project ("Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management to cope with the residual risk", 2009–2011). This article also shows how outcomes from flood risk analysis provide better and more complete information to inform authorities, local entities and the stakeholders involved in decision-making with regard to flood risk management.

Description: Efficient GIS-based model-driven method for flood risk management and its application in central China Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 331-346, 2014 Author(s): Y. Liu, J. Zhou, L. Song, Q. Zou, J. Guo, and Y. Wang In recent years, an important development in flood management has been the focal shift from flood protection towards flood risk management. This change greatly promoted the progress of flood control research in a multidisciplinary way. Moreover, given the growing complexity and uncertainty in many decision situations of flood risk management, traditional methods, e.g., tight-coupling integration of one or more quantitative models, are not enough to provide decision support for managers. Within this context, this paper presents a beneficial methodological framework to enhance the effectiveness of decision support systems, through the dynamic adaptation of support regarding the needs of the decision-maker. In addition, we illustrate a loose-coupling technical prototype for integrating heterogeneous elements, such as multi-source data, multidisciplinary models, GIS tools and existing systems. The main innovation is the application of model-driven concepts, which put the system in a state of continuous iterative optimization. We define the new system as a model-driven decision support system (MDSS ). Two characteristics that differentiate the MDSS are as follows: (1) it is made accessible to non-technical specialists; and (2) it has a higher level of adaptability and compatibility. Furthermore, the MDSS was employed to manage the flood risk in the Jingjiang flood diversion area, located in central China near the Yangtze River. Compared with traditional solutions, we believe that this model-driven method is efficient, adaptable and flexible, and thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk management.

Description: Rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Calabria, southern Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 317-330, 2014 Author(s): C. Vennari, S. L. Gariano, L. Antronico, M. T. Brunetti, G. Iovine, S. Peruccacci, O. Terranova, and F. Guzzetti In many areas, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides. Determining the rainfall conditions responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to saving lives and properties. In a long-term national project for the definition of rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy, we compiled a catalogue of 186 rainfall events that resulted in 251 shallow landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, from January 1996 to September 2011. Landslides were located geographically using Google Earth®, and were given a mapping and a temporal accuracy. We used the landslide information, and sub-hourly rainfall measurements obtained from two complementary networks of rain gauges, to determine cumulated event vs. rainfall duration ( ED ) thresholds for Calabria. For this purpose, we adopted an existing method used to prepare rainfall thresholds and to estimate their associated uncertainties in central Italy. The regional thresholds for Calabria were found to be nearly identical to previous ED thresholds for Calabria obtained using a reduced set of landslide information, and slightly higher than the ED thresholds obtained for central Italy. We segmented the regional catalogue of rainfall events with landslides in Calabria into lithology, soil regions, rainfall zones, and seasonal periods. The number of events in each subdivision was insufficient to determine reliable thresholds, but allowed for preliminary conclusions about the role of the environmental factors in the rainfall conditions responsible for shallow landslides in Calabria. We further segmented the regional catalogue based on administrative subdivisions used for hydro-meteorological monitoring and operational flood forecasting, and we determined separate ED thresholds for the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian coasts of Calabria. We expect the ED rainfall thresholds for Calabria to be used in regional and national landslide warning systems. The thresholds can also be used for landslide hazard and risk assessments, and for erosion and landscape evolution studies, in the study area and in similar physiographic regions in the Mediterranean area.

Description: GIS and remote sensing techniques for the assessment of land use change impact on flood hydrology: the case study of Yialias basin in Cyprus Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 413-426, 2014 Author(s): D. D. Alexakis, M. G. Grillakis, A. G. Koutroulis, A. Agapiou, K. Themistocleous, I. K. Tsanis, S. Michaelides, S. Pashiardis, C. Demetriou, K. Aristeidou, A. Retalis, F. Tymvios, and D. G. Hadjimitsis Floods are one of the most common natural disasters worldwide, leading to economic losses and loss of human lives. This paper highlights the hydrological effects of multi-temporal land use changes in flood hazard within the Yialias catchment area, located in central Cyprus. A calibrated hydrological model was firstly developed to describe the hydrological processes and internal basin dynamics of the three major subbasins, in order to study the diachronic effects of land use changes. For the implementation of the hydrological model, land use, soil and hydrometeorological data were incorporated. The climatic and stream flow data were derived from rain and flow gauge stations located in the wider area of the watershed basin. In addition, the land use and soil data were extracted after the application of object-oriented nearest neighbor algorithms of ASTER satellite images. Subsequently, the cellular automata (CA)–Markov chain analysis was implemented to predict the 2020 land use/land cover (LULC) map and incorporate it to the hydrological impact assessment. The results denoted the increase of runoff in the catchment area due to the recorded extensive urban sprawl phenomenon of the last decade.

Description: Preface: Understanding dynamics and current developments of climate extremes in the Mediterranean region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 309-316, 2014 Author(s): R. F. Garcia-Herrera, P. Lionello, and U. Ulbrich

Description: Development of an operational modeling system for urban heat islands: an application to Athens, Greece Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 347-358, 2014 Author(s): T. M. Giannaros, D. Melas, I. A. Daglis, and I. Keramitsoglou The urban heat island (UHI) effect is one prominent form of localized anthropogenic climate modification. It represents a significant urban climate problem since it occurs in the layer of the atmosphere where almost all daily human activities take place. This paper presents the development of a high-resolution modeling system that could be used for simulating the UHI effect in the context of operational weather forecasting activities. The modeling system is built around a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model, properly modified to allow for the better representation of the urban climate. The model performance in terms of simulating the near-surface air temperature and thermal comfort conditions over the complex urban area of Athens, Greece, is evaluated during a 1.5-month operational implementation in the summer of 2010. Results from this case study reveal an overall satisfactory performance of the modeling system. The discussion of the results highlights the important role that, given the necessary modifications, a meteorological model can play as a supporting tool for developing successful heat island mitigation strategies. This is further underlined through the operational character of the presented modeling system.

Description: A data-based comparison of flood frequency analysis methods used in France Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 295-308, 2014 Author(s): K. Kochanek, B. Renard, P. Arnaud, Y. Aubert, M. Lang, T. Cipriani, and E. Sauquet Flood frequency analysis (FFA) aims at estimating quantiles with large return periods for an extreme discharge variable. Many FFA implementations are used in operational practice in France. These implementations range from the estimation of a pre-specified distribution to continuous simulation approaches using a rainfall simulator coupled with a rainfall–runoff model. This diversity of approaches raises questions regarding the limits of each implementation and calls for a nation-wide comparison of their predictive performances. This paper presents the results of a national comparison of the main FFA implementations used in France. More accurately, eight implementations are considered, corresponding to the local, regional and local-regional estimation of Gumbel and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions, as well as the local and regional versions of a continuous simulation approach. A data-based comparison framework is applied to these eight competitors to evaluate their predictive performances in terms of reliability and stability, using daily flow data from more than 1000 gauging stations in France. Results from this comparative exercise suggest that two implementations dominate their competitors in terms of predictive performances, namely the local version of the continuous simulation approach and the local-regional estimation of a GEV distribution. More specific conclusions include the following: (i) the Gumbel distribution is not suitable for Mediterranean catchments, since this distribution demonstrably leads to an underestimation of flood quantiles; (ii) the local estimation of a GEV distribution is not recommended, because the difficulty in estimating the shape parameter results in frequent predictive failures; (iii) all the purely regional implementations evaluated in this study displayed a quite poor reliability, suggesting that prediction in completely ungauged catchments remains a challenge.

Description: Which data for quantitative landslide susceptibility mapping at operational scale? Case study of the Pays d'Auge plateau hillslopes (Normandy, France) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 569-588, 2014 Author(s): M. Fressard, Y. Thiery, and O. Maquaire This paper aims at assessing the impact of the data set quality for landslide susceptibility mapping using multivariate statistical modelling methods at detailed scale. This research is conducted on the Pays d'Auge plateau (Normandy, France) with a scale objective of 1 / 10 000, in order to fit the French guidelines on risk assessment. Five sets of data of increasing quality (considering accuracy, scale fitting, and geomorphological significance) and cost of acquisition are used to map the landslide susceptibility using logistic regression. The best maps obtained with each set of data are compared on the basis of different statistical accuracy indicators (ROC curves and relative error calculation), linear cross correlation and expert opinion. The results highlight that only high-quality sets of data supplied with detailed geomorphological variables (i.e. field inventory and surficial formation maps) can predict a satisfying proportion of landslides in the study area.

Description: Coseismic slip inversion based on InSAR arc measurements Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 649-656, 2014 Author(s): C. Wang, X. Ding, and Q. Li We present a new method for inverting coseismic slip distribution based on arc measurements of InSAR interferograms. The method only solves the integer ambiguities on the selected arcs so that the challenging task from global unwrapping of low coherence interferograms can be avoided. The simulated experiment results show that the new method recovered the given slip distribution well at different coherence quality levels. However, the conventional method with global interferogram unwrapping fails when the interferogram has some isolated areas. In addition, the new method is capable of using surface rupture offset data gathered in the field. We apply the proposed method to study the 2010 Yushu, China Ms 7.1 earthquake. Inclusion of field data can help to enhance the results of fault slip inversion. It derives a maximum slip of ∼3 m, larger than the published coseismic slip results on this event, but agreeing with the largest offset of 3.2 m from field investigation.

Description: A new approach to flood vulnerability assessment for historic buildings in England Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 1035-1048, 2014 Author(s): V. Stephenson and D. D'Ayala The recent increase in frequency and severity of flooding in the UK has led to a shift in the perception of risk associated with flood hazards. This has extended to the conservation community, and the risks posed to historic structures that suffer from flooding are particularly concerning for those charged with preserving and maintaining such buildings. In order to fully appraise the risks in a manner appropriate to the complex issue of preservation, a new methodology is presented here that studies the nature of the vulnerability of such structures, and places it in the context of risk assessment, accounting for the vulnerable object and the subsequent exposure of that object to flood hazards. The testing of the methodology is carried out using three urban case studies and the results of the survey analysis provide guidance on the development of fragility curves for historic structures exposed to flooding. This occurs through appraisal of vulnerability indicators related to building form, structural and fabric integrity, and preservation of architectural and archaeological values. Key findings of the work include determining the applicability of these indicators to fragility analysis, and the determination of the relative vulnerability of the three case study sites.

Description: Daytime identification of summer hailstorm cells from MSG data Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 1017-1033, 2014 Author(s): A. Merino, L. López, J. L. Sánchez, E. García-Ortega, E. Cattani, and V. Levizzani Identifying deep convection is of paramount importance, as it may be associated with extreme weather phenomena that have significant impact on the environment, property and populations. A new method, the hail detection tool (HDT), is described for identifying hail-bearing storms using multispectral Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) data. HDT was conceived as a two-phase method, in which the first step is the convective mask (CM) algorithm devised for detection of deep convection, and the second a hail mask algorithm (HM) for the identification of hail-bearing clouds among cumulonimbus systems detected by CM. Both CM and HM are based on logistic regression models trained with multispectral MSG data sets comprised of summer convective events in the middle Ebro Valley (Spain) between 2006 and 2010, and detected by the RGB (red-green-blue) visualization technique (CM) or C-band weather radar system of the University of León. By means of the logistic regression approach, the probability of identifying a cumulonimbus event with CM or a hail event with HM are computed by exploiting a proper selection of MSG wavelengths or their combination. A number of cloud physical properties (liquid water path, optical thickness and effective cloud drop radius) were used to physically interpret results of statistical models from a meteorological perspective, using a method based on these "ingredients". Finally, the HDT was applied to a new validation sample consisting of events during summer 2011. The overall probability of detection was 76.9 % and the false alarm ratio 16.7 %.

Description: Three variables are better than one: detection of european winter windstorms causing important damages Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 981-993, 2014 Author(s): M.-S. Deroche, M. Choux, F. Codron, and P. Yiou In this paper, we present a new approach for detecting potentially damaging European winter windstorms from a multi-variable perspective. European winter windstorms being usually associated with extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs), there is a coupling between the intensity of the surface wind speeds and other meso-scale and large-scale features characteristic of ETCs. Here we focus on the relative vorticity at 850 hPa and the sea level pressure anomaly, which are also used in ETC detection studies, along with the ratio of the 10 m wind speed to its 98th percentile. When analysing 10 events known by the insurance industry to have caused extreme damages, we find that they share an intense signature in each of the 3 fields. This shows that the relative vorticity and the mean sea level pressure have a predictive value of the intensity of the generated windstorms. The 10 major events are not the most intense in any of the 3 variables considered separately, but we show that the combination of the 3 variables is an efficient way of extracting these events from a reanalysis data set.

Description: Modeling extreme wave heights from laboratory experiments with the nonlinear Schrödinger equation Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 959-968, 2014 Author(s): H. D. Zhang, C. Guedes Soares, Z. Cherneva, and M. Onorato Spatial variation of nonlinear wave groups with different initial envelope shapes is theoretically studied first, confirming that the simplest nonlinear theoretical model is capable of describing the evolution of propagating wave packets in deep water. Moreover, three groups of laboratory experiments run in the wave basin of CEHIPAR (Canal de Experiencias Hidrodinámicas de El Pardo, known also as El Pardo Model Basin) was founded in 1928 by the Spanish Navy. are systematically compared with the numerical simulations of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation. Although a little overestimation is detected, especially in the set of experiments characterized by higher initial wave steepness, the numerical simulation still displays a high degree of agreement with the laboratory experiments. Therefore, the nonlinear Schrödinger equation catches the essential characteristics of the extreme waves and provides an important physical insight into their generation. The modulation instability, resulting from the quasi-resonant four-wave interaction in a unidirectional sea state, can be indicated by the coefficient of kurtosis, which shows an appreciable correlation with the extreme wave height and hence is used in the modified Edgeworth–Rayleigh distribution. Finally, some statistical properties on the maximum wave heights in different sea states have been related with the initial Benjamin–Feir index.

Description: Seismic vulnerability assessment of school buildings in Tehran city based on AHP and GIS Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 969-979, 2014 Author(s): M. Panahi, F. Rezaie, and S. A. Meshkani The objective of the current study is to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of school buildings in Tehran city based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). To this end, the peak ground acceleration, slope, and soil liquefaction layers were utilized for developing a geotechnical map. Also, the construction materials of structures, age of construction, the quality, and the seismic resonance coefficient layers were defined as major factors affecting the structural vulnerability of school buildings. Then, the AHP method was applied to assess the priority rank and weight of criteria (layers) and alternatives (classes) of each criterion via pairwise comparison in all levels. Finally, the geotechnical and structural spatial layers were overlaid to develop the seismic vulnerability map of school buildings in Tehran. The results indicated that only in 72 (about 3%) out of 2125 school buildings of the study area will the destruction rate be very high and therefore their reconstruction should seriously be considered.

Description: Facing and managing natural disasters in the Sporades islands, Greece Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 995-1005, 2014 Author(s): P. Karanikola, T. Panagopoulos, S. Tampakis, M. I. Karantoni, and G. Tsantopoulos The region of the Sporades islands located in central Greece is at the mercy of many natural phenomena, such as earthquakes due to the marine volcano Psathoura and the rift of Anatolia, forest fires, floods, landslides, storms, hail, snowfall and frost. The present work aims at studying the perceptions and attitudes of the residents regarding how they face and manage natural disasters. A positive public response during a hazard crisis depends not only upon the availability and good management of a civil defense plan but also on the knowledge and perception of the possible hazards by the local population. It is important for the stakeholders to know what the citizens expect so that the necessary structures can be developed in the phase of preparation and organization. The residents were asked their opinion about what they think should be done by the stakeholders after a catastrophic natural disaster, particularly about the immediate response of stakeholders and their involvement and responsibilities at different, subsequent intervals of time following the disaster. The residents were also asked about the most common disasters that happen in their region and about the preparation activities of the stakeholders.

Description: A quality assessment framework for natural hazard event documentation: application to trans-basin flood reports in Germany Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 189-208, 2014 Author(s): S. Uhlemann, A. H. Thieken, and B. Merz Written sources that aim at documenting and analysing a particular natural hazard event in the recent past are published at vast majority as grey literature (e.g. as technical reports) and therefore outside of the scholarly publication routes. In consequence, the application of event-specific documentation in natural hazard research has been constrained by barriers in accessibility, concerns of credibility towards these sources and by limited awareness of their content and its usefulness for research questions. In this study we address the concerns of credibility for the first time and present a quality assessment framework for written sources from a user's perspective, i.e. we assess the documents' fitness for use to enhance the understanding of trans-basin floods in Germany in the period 1952–2002. The framework is designed to be generally applicable for any natural hazard event documentation and assesses the quality of a document, addressing accessibility as well as representational, contextual, and intrinsic dimensions of quality. We introduce an ordinal scaling scheme to grade the quality in the individual quality dimensions and the Pedigree score which serves as a measure for the overall document quality. We present results of an application of the framework to a set of 133 cases of event-specific documentation relevant for understanding trans-basin floods in Germany. Our results show that the majority of flood event-specific reports are of good quality, i.e. they are well enough drafted, largely accurate and objective, and contain a substantial amount of information on the sources, pathways and receptors/consequences of the floods. The validation of our results against assessments of two independent peers confirms the objectivity and transparency of the quality assessment framework. Using an example flood event that occurred in October/November 1998 we demonstrate how the information from multiple reports can be synthesised.

Description: A two-step framework for over-threshold modelling of environmental extremes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 635-647, 2014 Author(s): P. Bernardara, F. Mazas, X. Kergadallan, and L. Hamm The evaluation of the probability of occurrence of extreme natural events is important for the protection of urban areas, industrial facilities and others. Traditionally, the extreme value theory (EVT) offers a valid theoretical framework on this topic. In an over-threshold modelling (OTM) approach, Pickands' theorem, (Pickands, 1975) states that, for a sample composed by independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) values, the distribution of the data exceeding a given threshold converges through a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Following this theoretical result, the analysis of realizations of environmental variables exceeding a threshold spread widely in the literature. However, applying this theorem to an auto-correlated time series logically involves two successive and complementary steps: the first one is required to build a sample of i.i.d. values from the available information, as required by the EVT; the second to set the threshold for the optimal convergence toward the GPD. In the past, the same threshold was often employed both for sampling observations and for meeting the hypothesis of extreme value convergence. This confusion can lead to an erroneous understanding of methodologies and tools available in the literature. This paper aims at clarifying the conceptual framework involved in threshold selection, reviewing the available methods for the application of both steps and illustrating it with a double threshold approach.

Description: Landslide observation and volume estimation in central Georgia based on L-band InSAR Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 675-688, 2014 Author(s): E. Nikolaeva, T.R. Walter, M. Shirzaei, and J. Zschau The republic of Georgia is a mountainous and tectonically active area that is vulnerable to landslides. Because landslides are one of the most devastating natural hazards, their detection and monitoring is of great importance. In this study we report on a previously unknown landslide in central Georgia near the town of Sachkhere. We used a set of Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data to generate displacement maps using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). We detected a sliding zone of dimensions 2 km north–south by 0.6 km east–west that threatens four villages. We estimated surface displacement of up to ∼30 cm/yr over the sliding body in the satellite line-of-sight (LOS) direction, with the largest displacement occurring after a local tectonic earthquake. We mapped the morphology of the landslide mass by aerial photography and field surveying. We found a complex set of interacting processes, including surface fracturing, shear and normal faults at both the headwall and the sides of the landslide, local landslide velocity changes, earthquake-induced velocity peaks, and loss in toe support due to mining activity. Important implications that are applicable elsewhere can be drawn from this study of coupled processes. We used inverse dislocation modelling to find a possible dislocation plane resembling the landslide basal décollement, and we used that plane to calculate the volume of the landslide. The results suggest a décollement at ∼120 m depth, dipping at ∼10° sub-parallel to the surface, which is indicative of a translational-type landslide.

Description: Recent land subsidence caused by the rapid urban development in the Hanoi region (Vietnam) using ALOS InSAR data Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 657-674, 2014 Author(s): V. K. Dang, C. Doubre, C. Weber, N. Gourmelen, and F. Masson Since the 1990s the land subsidence due to the rapid urbanization has been considered a severely destructive hazard in the center of Hanoi City. Although previous studies and measurements have quantified the subsiding deformation in Hanoi center, no data exist for the newly established districts in the south and the west, where construction development has been most significant and where groundwater pumping has been very intensive over the last decade. With a multi-temporal InSAR approach, we quantify the spatial distribution of the land subsidence in the entire Hanoi urban region using ALOS images over the 2007–2011 period. The map of the mean subsidence velocity reveals that the northern bank of the Red River appears stable, whereas some areas in southern bank are subsiding with a mean vertical rate up to 68.0 mm yr −1 , especially within the three new urban districts of Hoang Mai, Ha Dong – Thanh Xuan and Hoai Duc – Tu Liem. We interpret the spatial distribution of the surface deformation as the combination of the nature of the unsaturated layer, the lowering of groundwater in the aquifers due to pumping withdrawal capacity, the increase of built-up surfaces and the type of building foundation. The piezometric level in Q p aquifer lowers particularly after 2008, whereas the groundwater level in Q h aquifer remains steady, even if it loses its seasonal fluctuation in urban areas and drawdowns in neighboring water production plants. The time evolution deduced from the InSAR time series is consistent with previous leveling data and shows that the lowering rate of the surface slightly decreases till 2008. The analysis of groundwater levels in instrumented wells shows a correlation between the behavior of groundwater with the urban development and the acceleration of groundwater withdrawal. Also, the time variations suggest that the deformation became non-stationary, with upward and downward transient displacements related to the charge and discharge of the aquifers.

Description: A reliability assessment of physical vulnerability of reinforced concrete walls loaded by snow avalanches Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 689-704, 2014 Author(s): P. Favier, D. Bertrand, N. Eckert, and M. Naaim Snow avalanches are a threat to many kinds of elements (human beings, communication axes, structures, etc.) in mountain regions. For risk evaluation, the vulnerability assessment of civil engineering structures such as buildings and dwellings exposed to avalanches still needs to be improved. This paper presents an approach to determine the fragility curves associated with reinforced concrete (RC) structures loaded by typical avalanche pressures and provides quantitative results for different geometrical configurations. First, several mechanical limit states of the RC wall are defined using classical engineering approaches (Eurocode 2), and the pressure of structure collapse is calculated from the usual yield line theory. Next, the fragility curve is evaluated as a function of avalanche loading using a Monte Carlo approach, and sensitivity studies (Sobol indices) are conducted to estimate the respective weight of the RC wall model inputs. Finally, fragility curves and relevant indicators such a their mean and fragility range are proposed for the different structure boundary conditions analyzed. The influence of the input distributions on the fragility curves is investigated. This shows the wider fragility range and/or the slight shift in the median that has to be considered when a possible slight change in mean/standard deviation/inter-variable correlation and/or the non-Gaussian nature of the input distributions is accounted for.

Description: Modulational instability and wave amplification in finite water depth Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 705-711, 2014 Author(s): L. Fernandez, M. Onorato, J. Monbaliu, and A. Toffoli The modulational instability of a uniform wave train to side band perturbations is one of the most plausible mechanisms for the generation of rogue waves in deep water. In a condition of finite water depth, however, the interaction with the sea floor generates a wave-induced current that subtracts energy from the wave field and consequently attenuates the instability mechanism. As a result, a plane wave remains stable under the influence of collinear side bands for relative depths kh ≤ 1.36 (where k is the wavenumber of the plane wave and h is the water depth), but it can still destabilise due to oblique perturbations. Using direct numerical simulations of the Euler equations, it is here demonstrated that oblique side bands are capable of triggering modulational instability and eventually leading to the formation of rogue waves also for kh ≤ 1.36. Results, nonetheless, indicate that modulational instability cannot sustain a substantial wave growth for kh 〈 0.8.

Description: Recent human impacts and change in dynamics and morphology of ephemeral rivers Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 713-730, 2014 Author(s): J. A. Ortega, L. Razola, and G. Garzón Ephemeral streams induce flash-flood events, which cause dramatic morphological changes and impacts on population, mainly because they are intermittent and less predictable. Human pressures on the basin modify load and discharge relationships, inducing dormant instability on the fluvial system that will manifest abruptly during flood events. The flash-flood response of two ephemeral streams affected by load supply modification due to land use changes is discussed in a combination of geomorphic and hydraulic approaches. During the Rivillas flash flood, intensive clearing on the basin led to high rates of sediment flowing into an artificially straightened and inefficient channel. The stream evolved from a sinuous single channel into a shallow braiding occupying the entire width of the valley floor. Misfits and unsteady channel conditions increased velocity, stream power and sediment entrainment capacity and considerably magnified flood damage. Resulting morphosedimentary features revealed a close relationship with the valley floor post-flood hydraulic model, and pre-event awareness would have made it possible to predict risk-sensitive areas. In the second case, the Azohía stream, modelling of current pre-flood channel conditions make it possible to determine channel narrowing and entrenchment in the lower alluvial fan stretch. Abandonment of intensive agriculture, basin reforestation and urbanization diminish load contribution and trigger channel incision. This induces an increase in slope and velocity in the bankfull channel, producing renewed erosive energy and thus activating upstream propagation of incision and bank undermining. The absence of water-spreading dynamics on the alluvial fan in favour of confinement in a single channel produces an unstable dynamic in the system, also offering a false sense of stability, as long as no large magnitude floods occur. When modelling flood-prone areas and analysing hydraulic variables, it is important to detect possible anthropic disturbances that may affect basin load budgets in order to anticipate catastrophic consequences resulting from inappropriate fluvial management before the occurrence of an extraordinary event.

Description: Electrical resistivity tomography for studying liquefaction induced by the May 2012 Emilia-Romagna earthquake (Mw = 6.1, northern Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 731-737, 2014 Author(s): A. Giocoli, B. Quadrio, J. Bellanova, V. Lapenna, and S. Piscitelli This work shows the result of an electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) survey carried out for imaging and characterizing the shallow subsurface affected by the coseismic effects of the Mw = 6.1 Emilia-Romagna (northern Italy) earthquake that occurred on 20 May 2012. The most characteristic coseismic effects were ground failure, lateral spreading and liquefaction that occurred extensively along the paleo-Reno River in the urban areas of San Carlo and Mirabello (southwestern portion of Ferrara Province). In total, six electrical resistivity tomographies were performed and calibrated with surface geological surveys, exploratory boreholes and aerial photo interpretations. This was one of first applications of the electrical resistivity tomography method in investigating coseismic liquefaction.

Description: Using geographic information systems for radon exposure assessment in dwellings in the Oslo region, Norway Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 739-749, 2014 Author(s): R. Kollerud, K. Blaasaas, G. Ganerød, H. K. Daviknes, E. Aune, and B. Claussen Radon exposures were assigned to each residential address in the Oslo region using a geographic information system (GIS) that included indoor radon measurements. The results will be used in an epidemiologic study regarding leukemia and brain cancer. The model is based on 6% of measured residential buildings. High density of indoor radon measurements allowed us to develop a buffer model where indoor radon measurements found around each dwelling were used to assign a radon value for homes lacking radon measurement. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were used to study the agreement between radon values from the buffer method, from indoor radon values of measured houses, and from a regression model constructed with radiometric data ( e Th , e U ) and bedrock geology. We obtained good agreement for both comparisons with ICC values between 0.54 and 0.68. GIS offers a useful variety of tools to study the indoor-radon exposure assessment. By using the buffer method it is more likely that geological conditions are similar within the buffer and this may take more into account the variation of radon over short distances. It is also probable that short-distance-scale correlation patterns express similarities in building styles and living habits. Although the method has certain limitations, we regard it as acceptable for use in epidemiological studies.

Description: Assessment of heavy rainfall-induced disaster potential based on an ensemble simulation of Typhoon Talas (2011) with controlled track and intensity Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2699-2709, 2014 Author(s): Y. Oku, J. Yoshino, T. Takemi, and H. Ishikawa Typhoon Talas (2011) caused extensive damage through landslides on the Kii Peninsula, Japan, in September 2011. The purpose of the present study is to quantitatively describe the potential for the occurrence of heavy rainfall-induced disasters if the typhoon track perturbs slightly or the typhoon intensifies. Regarding to the consideration of the track displacement of the typhoon, a procedure is proposed to generate different typhoon tracks perturbed from the original track of the typhoon. In this procedure, the position of a typhoon is artificially shifted at a certain time before landing in a physically consistent manner by applying potential vorticity inversion (PVI) methodology. After relocating the typhoon, the subsequent progress is simulated by a mesoscale meteorological model. Using the output, which consists of a set of realizations having different typhoon tracks, the worst-case scenario is discussed in terms of the soil water index (SWI) of the Kii Peninsula. The SWI is an indicator of the amount of water in soil that represents the hazard of landslide disasters. The maximum spatially averaged SWI is 1.10 times as large as that from the original typhoon track. Regarding the consideration of severer typhoon, the same method is used, but the intensity of the potential vorticity of a typhoon is artificially modified at the position instead of relocating potential vorticity to a different place. The maximum spatially averaged SWI is 1.28 times as large as that of the original typhoon intensity.

Description: A novel approach to comparing simultaneous size-segregated particulate matter (PM) concentration ratios by means of a dedicated triangular diagram using the Agri Valley PM measurements as an example Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2727-2733, 2014 Author(s): A. Speranza, R. Caggiano, S. Margiotta, and S. Trippetta This work presents a novel approach to comparing and graphically representing simultaneous concentration measurements of PM 10 , PM 2.5 and PM 1 (i.e., aerosol particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 10, 2.5 and 1 μm, respectively) with similar data reported in the literature using PM 2.5 /PM 10 and PM 1 /PM 10 concentration ratios. With this aim, a dedicated triangular diagram was used. The proposed approach was applied to size-segregated particulate matter (PM) concentrations recorded in the Agri Valley (Basilicata region – southern Italy). Results show that the PM 10 , PM 2.5 and PM 1 concentrations recorded in the Agri Valley are comparable both in terms of PM concentration ratios and PM levels to an urban site.

Description: Methodology for flood frequency estimations in small catchments Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2655-2669, 2014 Author(s): V. David and T. Davidova Estimations of flood frequencies in small catchments are difficult due to a lack of measured discharge data. This problem is usually solved in the Czech Republic by hydrologic modelling when there is a reason not to use the data provided by the Czech hydrometeorological institute, which are quite expensive and have a very low level of accuracy. Another way is to use a simple method which provides sufficient estimates of flood frequency based on the available spatial data. A new methodology is being developed considering all important factors affecting flood formation in small catchments. The relationship between catchment descriptors and flood characteristics has been analysed first to get an overview of the importance of each considered descriptor. The results for different descriptors vary from a highly correlated relationship of an expected shape to a relationship which is opposite to that expected, mainly in the case of land use. The parameterisation of the methodology is also presented, including the sensitivity tests on each involved catchment descriptor and cross-validation of achieved results. In its present form, the methodology achieves an R adj 2 value of about 0.61 for 10- and 0.60 for 100-year return periods.

Description: Meteorological effects in the lower ionosphere as based on VLF/LF signal observations Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2671-2679, 2014 Author(s): A. Rozhnoi, M. Solovieva, B. Levin, M. Hayakawa, and V. Fedun Very low and low frequency (VLF/LF) data recorded in the Far Eastern stations Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (158.92° E, 53.15° N), Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (142.75° E, 46.95° N) and Yuzhno-Kurilsk (145.861° E, 44.03° N) are investigated to study the meteorological effects in the lower ionosphere. The results demonstrate the sensitivity of the VLF/LF signals to the variations of atmospheric pressure, humidity, wind velocity and temperature, and the VLF/LF record at the station of Yuzhno-Kurilsk is found to be most sensitive to those variations of atmospheric parameters. The region under consideration is characterized by high winter cyclonic activity in mid-latitudes and strong summer and autumn typhoon activity in low latitudes. VLF/LF signal variations during eight tropical cyclones (TCs) with different intensity are considered. Negative nighttime anomalies in the signal amplitude that are most probably caused by TC activity are found for six events. Those anomalies are observed during 1–2 days when TCs move inside the sensitivity zones of the subionospheric paths. Perturbations of the VLF signal observed during two TCs can be caused by both the TC influence and seismic activity, but no correlation between TC intensity and magnitude of the signal anomalies is found. Spectral analysis of the typhoon-induced disturbed signals revealed the fluctuations with time periods in the range of 7–16 and 15–55 min that corresponds to the range of internal gravity waves periods.

Description: Evaluating data quality collected by volunteers for first-level inspection of hydraulic structures in mountain catchments Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2681-2698, 2014 Author(s): V. J. Cortes Arevalo, M. Charrière, G. Bossi, S. Frigerio, L. Schenato, T. Bogaard, C. Bianchizza, A. Pasuto, and S. Sterlacchini Volunteers have been trained to perform first-level inspections of hydraulic structures within campaigns promoted by civil protection of Friuli Venezia Giulia (Italy). Two inspection forms and a learning session were prepared to standardize data collection on the functional status of bridges and check dams. In all, 11 technicians and 25 volunteers inspected a maximum of six structures in Pontebba, a mountain community within the Fella Basin. Volunteers included civil-protection volunteers, geosciences and social sciences students. Some participants carried out the inspection without attending the learning session. Thus, we used the mode of technicians in the learning group to distinguish accuracy levels between volunteers and technicians. Data quality was assessed by their accuracy, precision and completeness. We assigned ordinal scores to the rating scales in order to get an indication of the structure status. We also considered performance and feedback of participants to identify corrective actions in survey procedures. Results showed that volunteers could perform comparably to technicians, but only with a given range in precision. However, a completeness ratio (question/parameter) was still needed any time volunteers used unspecified options. Then, volunteers' ratings could be considered as preliminary assessments without replacing other procedures. Future research should consider advantages of mobile applications for data-collection methods.

Description: Preface "Progress in landslide hazard and risk evaluation" Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2711-2713, 2014 Author(s): P. Reichenbach and A. Günther

Description: Global patterns of lightning properties derived by OTD and LIS Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2715-2726, 2014 Author(s): S. Beirle, W. Koshak, R. Blakeslee, and T. Wagner The satellite instruments Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) provide unique empirical data about the frequency of lightning flashes around the globe (OTD), and the tropics (LIS), which have been used before to compile a well-received global climatology of flash rate densities. Here we present a statistical analysis of various additional lightning properties derived from OTD / LIS, i.e., the number of so-called "events" and "groups" per flash, as well as the mean flash duration, footprint and radiance. These normalized quantities, which can be associated with the flash "strength", show consistent spatial patterns; most strikingly, oceanic flashes show higher values than continental flashes for all properties. Over land, regions with high (eastern US) and low (India) flash strength can be clearly identified. We discuss possible causes for and implications of the observed regional differences. Although a direct quantitative interpretation of the investigated flash properties is difficult, the observed spatial patterns provide valuable information for the interpretation and application of climatological flash rates. Due to the systematic regional variations of physical flash characteristics, viewing conditions, and/or measurement sensitivities, parametrizations of lightning NO x based on total flash rate densities alone are probably affected by regional biases.

Description: Brief Communication: On the source characteristics and impacts of the magnitude 7.2 Bohol earthquake, Philippines Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2795-2801, 2014 Author(s): A. M. F. Lagmay and R. Eco A devastating earthquake struck Bohol, Philippines, on 15 October 2013. The earthquake originated at 12 km depth from an unmapped reverse fault, which manifested on the surface for several kilometers and with maximum vertical displacement of 3 m. The earthquake resulted in 222 fatalities with damage to infrastructure estimated at USD 52.06 million. Widespread landslides and sinkholes formed in the predominantly limestone region during the earthquake. These remain a significant threat to communities as destabilized hillside slopes, landslide-dammed rivers and incipient sinkholes are still vulnerable to collapse, triggered possibly by aftershocks and heavy rains in the upcoming months of November and December. The most recent fatal temblor originated from a previously unmapped fault, herein referred to as the Inabanga Fault. Like the hidden or previously unmapped faults responsible for the 2012 Negros and 2013 Bohol earthquakes, there may be more unidentified faults that need to be mapped through field and geophysical methods. This is necessary to mitigate the possible damaging effects of future earthquakes in the Philippines.

Description: Recent advances and applications of WRF–SFIRE Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2829-2845, 2014 Author(s): J. Mandel, S. Amram, J. D. Beezley, G. Kelman, A. K. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, B. H. Lynn, B. Regev, and M. Vejmelka Coupled atmosphere–fire models can now generate forecasts in real time, owing to recent advances in computational capabilities. WRF–SFIRE consists of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the fire-spread model SFIRE. This paper presents new developments, which were introduced as a response to the needs of the community interested in operational testing of WRF–SFIRE. These developments include a fuel-moisture model and a fuel-moisture-data-assimilation system based on the Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) observations, allowing for fire simulations across landscapes and time scales of varying fuel-moisture conditions. The paper also describes the implementation of a coupling with the atmospheric chemistry and aerosol schemes in WRF–Chem, which allows for a simulation of smoke dispersion and effects of fires on air quality. There is also a data-assimilation method, which provides the capability of starting the fire simulations from an observed fire perimeter, instead of an ignition point. Finally, an example of operational deployment in Israel, utilizing some of the new visualization and data-management tools, is presented.

Description: Rn and CO 2 geochemistry of soil gas across the active fault zones in the capital area of China Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2803-2815, 2014 Author(s): X. Han, Y. Li, J. Du, X. Zhou, C. Xie, and W. Zhang The present work is proposed to investigate the spatiotemporal variations in soil gas Rn and CO 2 across the active faults in the capital area of China in order to understand fault activities and assess seismic hazard. A total of 342 soil gas sampling sites were measured twice in 2011 and 2012 along seven profiles and across four faults. The results of soil gas surveys show that, in each profile, due to the variation in gas emission rate, the concentrations of Rn and CO 2 changed in the vicinity of faults. Spatial distributions of Rn and CO 2 in the study areas were different from each other, which was attributed to soil types affecting the existence of Rn and CO 2 . Compared with the measurement result of 2011, the increasing amplitude of average concentration value of Rn and CO 2 in profiles in 2012 ranged from 30.2 to 123.4% and 66.3 to 131.7%, respectively, which were coincident with the enhancement of seismic activities in the capital area of China. Our results indicate that special attention with regard to seismic monitoring should be paid to the Xinbaoan–Shacheng Fault and the northeastern segment of the Tangshan Fault in the future.

Description: Reassessing flood frequency for the Sussex Ouse, Lewes: the inclusion of historical flood information since AD 1650 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2817-2828, 2014 Author(s): N. Macdonald, T. R. Kjeldsen, I. Prosdocimi, and H. Sangster The application of historical flood information as a tool for augmenting instrumental flood data is increasingly recognised as a valuable tool. Most previous studies have focused on large catchments with historic settlements, this paper applies the approach to the smaller lowland system of the Sussex Ouse in southeast England. The reassessment of flood risk on the Sussex Ouse is pertinent in light of the severe flooding in October 2000 and heightened concerns of a perceived increase in flooding nationally. Systematic flood level readings from 1960 and accounts detailing past flood events within the catchment are compiled back to ca. 1750. This extended flood record provides an opportunity to reassess estimates of flood frequency over a timescale not normally possible within flood frequency analysis. This paper re-evaluates flood frequency at Lewes on the Sussex Ouse downstream of the confluence of the Sussex Ouse and River Uck. The paper considers the strengths and weaknesses in estimates resulting from contrasting methods of analysis and their corresponding data: (i) single site analysis of gauged annual maxima; (ii) combined analysis of systematic annual maxima augmented with historical peaks of estimated magnitude; (iii) combined analysis of systematic annual maxima augmented with historical peaks of estimated magnitude exceeding a known threshold, and (iv) sensitivity analysis including only the very largest historical flood events. Use of the historical information was found to yield much tighter confidence intervals of risk estimates, with uncertainty reduced by up to 40% for the 100-year return frequency event when historical information was added to the gauged data.

Description: Simulating lightning into the RAMS model: implementation and preliminary results Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2933-2950, 2014 Author(s): S. Federico, E. Avolio, M. Petracca, G. Panegrossi, P. Sanò, D. Casella, and S. Dietrich This paper shows the results of a tailored version of a previously published methodology, designed to simulate lightning activity, implemented into the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The method gives the flash density at the resolution of the RAMS grid scale allowing for a detailed analysis of the evolution of simulated lightning activity. The system is applied in detail to two case studies occurred over the Lazio Region, in Central Italy. Simulations are compared with the lightning activity detected by the LINET network. The cases refer to two thunderstorms of different intensity which occurred, respectively, on 20 October 2011 and on 15 October 2012. The number of flashes simulated (observed) over Lazio is 19435 (16231) for the first case and 7012 (4820) for the second case, and the model correctly reproduces the larger number of flashes that characterized the 20 October 2011 event compared to the 15 October 2012 event. There are, however, errors in timing and positioning of the convection, whose magnitude depends on the case study, which mirrors in timing and positioning errors of the lightning distribution. For the 20 October 2011 case study, spatial errors are of the order of a few tens of kilometres and the timing of the event is correctly simulated. For the 15 October 2012 case study, the spatial error in the positioning of the convection is of the order of 100 km and the event has a longer duration in the simulation than in the reality. To assess objectively the performance of the methodology, standard scores are presented for four additional case studies. Scores show the ability of the methodology to simulate the daily lightning activity for different spatial scales and for two different minimum thresholds of flash number density. The performance decreases at finer spatial scales and for higher thresholds. The comparison of simulated and observed lighting activity is an immediate and powerful tool to assess the model ability to reproduce the intensity and the evolution of the convection. This shows the importance of using computationally efficient lightning schemes, such as the one described in this paper, in forecast models.

Description: Quantification of basal friction for technical and silvicultural glide-snow avalanche mitigation measures Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2921-2931, 2014 Author(s): T. Feistl, P. Bebi, L. Dreier, M. Hanewinkel, and P. Bartelt A long-standing problem in avalanche engineering is to design defense structures and manage forest stands such that they can withstand the forces of the natural snow cover. In this way, glide-snow avalanches can be prevented. Ground friction plays a crucial role in this process. To verify existing guidelines, we collected data on the vegetation cover and terrain characteristics of 101 glide-snow release areas in Davos, Switzerland. We quantified the Coulomb friction parameter μ m by applying a physical model that accounts for the dynamic forces of the moving snow in the stauch zone. We investigated the role of glide length, slope steepness and friction in avalanche release. Our calculations revealed that the slope angle and slab length for smooth slopes correspond to the technical guidelines for defense structure distances in Switzerland. Artificial defense structures, built in accordance with guidelines, prevent glide-snow avalanche releases, even when the terrain is smooth. Slopes over 40 m in length and 45° in steepness require a ground friction of μ m = 0.7 corresponding to stumps or tree regeneration to ensure protection. Forest management guidelines that define maximum forest gap sizes to prevent glide-snow avalanche release neglect the role of surface roughness and therefore underestimate the danger on smooth slopes.

Description: The efficiency of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for simulating typhoons Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2179-2187, 2014 Author(s): T. Haghroosta, W. R. Ismail, P. Ghafarian, and S. M. Barekati The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model includes various configuration options related to physics parameters, which can affect the performance of the model. In this study, numerical experiments were conducted to determine the best combination of physics parameterization schemes for the simulation of sea surface temperatures, latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, precipitation rate, and wind speed that characterized typhoons. Through these experiments, several physics parameterization options within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were exhaustively tested for typhoon Noul, which originated in the South China Sea in November 2008. The model domain consisted of one coarse domain and one nested domain. The resolution of the coarse domain was 30 km, and that of the nested domain was 10 km. In this study, model simulation results were compared with the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data set. Comparisons between predicted and control data were made through the use of standard statistical measurements. The results facilitated the determination of the best combination of options suitable for predicting each physics parameter. Then, the suggested best combinations were examined for seven other typhoons and the solutions were confirmed. Finally, the best combination was compared with other introduced combinations for wind-speed prediction for typhoon Washi in 2011. The contribution of this study is to have attention to the heat fluxes besides the other parameters. The outcomes showed that the suggested combinations are comparable with the ones in the literature.

Description: Medicanes in an ocean–atmosphere coupled regional climate model Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2189-2201, 2014 Author(s): N. Akhtar, J. Brauch, A. Dobler, K. Béranger, and B. Ahrens So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with medicanes threaten the highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. To reduce the risk of casualties and overall negative impacts, it is important to improve the understanding of medicanes with the use of numerical models. In this study, we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (1-D NEMO-MED12) to simulate medicanes. The aim of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model in simulating these extreme events. For this purpose, 11 historical medicane events are simulated using the atmosphere-only model, COSMO-CLM, and coupled model, with different setups (horizontal atmospheric grid spacings of 0.44, 0.22, and 0.08°; with/without spectral nudging, and an ocean grid spacing of 1/12°). The results show that at high resolution, the coupled model is able to not only simulate most of medicane events but also improve the track length, core temperature, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to the atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the coupled model is more proficient for systemic and detailed studies of historical medicane events, and that this model can be an effective tool for future projections.

Description: Brief Communication: CATALYST – a multi-regional stakeholder think tank for fostering capacity development in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2157-2163, 2014 Author(s): M. P. Hare, C. van Bers, P. van der Keur, H. J. Henriksen, J. Luther, C. Kuhlicke, F. Jaspers, C. Terwisscha van Scheltinga, J. Mysiak, E. Calliari, K. Warner, H. Daniel, J. Coppola, and P. F. McGrath This brief communication presents the work and objectives of the CATALYST project on "Capacity Development for Hazard Risk Reduction and Adaptation" funded by the European Commission (October 2011–September 2013). CATALYST set up a multi-regional think tank covering four regions (Central America and the Caribbean, East and West Africa, the European Mediterranean, and South and Southeast Asia), intending to strengthen capacity development for stakeholders involved in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation, in the context of natural hazards. This communication concludes with a selection of recommendations for capacity development in DRR and climate change adaptation from the perspective of governance issues.

Description: A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 2: Vulnerability and impact Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2289-2312, 2014 Author(s): C. Scaini, S. Biass, A. Galderisi, C. Bonadonna, A. Folch, K. Smith, and A. Höskuldsson We perform a multi-scale impact assessment of tephra fallout and dispersal from explosive volcanic activity in Iceland. A companion paper (Biass et al., 2014; "A multi-scale risk assessment of tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part I: hazard assessment") introduces a multi-scale probabilistic assessment of tephra hazard based on selected eruptive scenarios at four Icelandic volcanoes (Hekla, Askja, Eyjafjallajökull and Katla) and presents probabilistic hazard maps for tephra accumulation in Iceland and tephra dispersal across Europe. Here, we present the associated vulnerability and impact assessment that describes the importance of single features at national and European levels and considers several vulnerability indicators for tephra dispersal and deposition. At the national scale, we focus on physical, systemic and economic vulnerability of Iceland to tephra fallout, whereas at the European scale we focus on the systemic vulnerability of the air traffic system to tephra dispersal. This is the first vulnerability and impact assessment analysis of this type and, although it does not include all the aspects of physical and systemic vulnerability, it allows for identifying areas on which further specific analysis should be performed. Results include vulnerability maps for Iceland and European airspace and allow for the qualitative identification of the impacts at both scales in the case of an eruption occurring. Maps produced at the national scale show that tephra accumulation associated with all eruptive scenarios considered can disrupt the main electricity network, in particular in relation to an eruption of Askja. Results also show that several power plants would be affected if an eruption occurred at Hekla, Askja or Katla, causing a substantial systemic impact due to their importance for the Icelandic economy. Moreover, the Askja and Katla eruptive scenarios considered could have substantial impacts on agricultural activities (crops and pastures). At the European scale, eruptive scenarios at Askja and Katla are likely to affect European airspace, having substantial impacts, in particular, in the Keflavík and London flight information regions (FIRs), but also at FIRs above France, Germany and Scandinavia. Impacts would be particularly intense in the case of long-lasting activity at Katla. The occurrence of eruptive scenarios at Hekla is likely to produce high impacts at Keflavík FIR and London FIRs, and, in the case of higher magnitude, can also impact France's FIRs. Results could support land use and emergency planning at the national level and risk management strategies of the European air traffic system. Although we focus on Iceland, the proposed methodology could be applied to other active volcanic areas, enhancing the long-term tephra risk management. Moreover, the outcomes of this work pose the basis for quantitative analyses of expected impacts and their integration in a multi-risk framework.

Description: A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 1: Hazard assessment Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2265-2287, 2014 Author(s): S. Biass, C. Scaini, C. Bonadonna, A. Folch, K. Smith, and A. Höskuldsson In order to assist the elaboration of proactive measures for the management of future volcanic eruptions in Iceland, we developed a new scenario-based approach to assess the hazard associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation at various scales and for multiple sources. The target volcanoes are Hekla, Katla, Eyjafjallajökull and Askja, selected either for their high probabilities of eruption and/or their high potential impact. By coupling tephrostratigraphic studies, probabilistic techniques and modelling, we developed comprehensive eruption scenarios for both short- and long-lasting eruptions and compiled hazard maps for tephra ground deposition at a national scale and air concentration at a European scale using the TEPHRA2 and FALL3D models, respectively. New algorithms for the identification of realistic sets of eruptive source parameters are investigated, which assist the generation of probability density functions of eruption source parameters for the selected scenarios. Aggregation processes were accounted for using various empirical models. Outcomes, i.e. probabilities conditioned to the occurrence of an eruption, help the assessment and comparison of hazard levels at different scales. For example, at a national scale Askja has a 5–10% probability of blanketing the easternmost half of the country with a tephra accumulation of at least 1 kg m −2 . At a continental scale, Katla has a 5–10% probability of producing ash clouds with concentrations of 2 mg m −3 over the UK, Scandinavia and northern Europe with a mean arrival time of 48–72 h and a mean persistence time of 6–18 h. In a companion paper, Scaini et al. (2014) present a vulnerability assessment for Iceland to ground deposition of tephra and for the European air traffic to airborne ash which, combined with the outcomes of the present paper, constitute one of the first comprehensive multi-scale risk assessment associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation.

Description: Shallow landslide prediction and analysis with risk assessment using a spatial model in a coastal region in the state of São Paulo, Brazil Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2449-2468, 2014 Author(s): P. I. M. Camarinha, V. Canavesi, and R. C. S. Alvalá This study presents a methodology for susceptibility mapping of shallow landslides just from data and software from the public domain. The study was conducted in a mountainous region located on the southeastern Brazilian coast, in the state of São Paulo. The proposal is that the methodology can be replicated in a practical and reliable way in several other municipalities that do not have such mappings and that often suffer from landslide-related disasters. The susceptibility mapping was generated based on the following maps: geological, soils, slope, horizontal and vertical curvatures, and land use. The thematic classes of these maps were weighted according to technical and scientific criteria related to the triggering of landslides, and were crossed by the fuzzy gamma technique. The mapping was compared with the risk sector survey made by the Brazilian Geological Survey (CPRM), which is the official database used by municipalities and civil defense in risk management. The results showed positive correlations, so that the critical risk sectors had higher proportions for the more susceptible classes. To compare the approach with other studies using landslide-scar maps, correlated indices were evaluated, which also showed satisfactory results, thus indicating that the methodology presented is appropriate for risk assessment in urban areas.

Description: Corrigendum to "Analysis of the French insurance market exposure to floods: a stochastic model combining river overflow and surface runoff" published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2469–2485, 2014 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2529-2529, 2014 Author(s): D. Moncoulon, D. Labat, J. Ardon, E. Leblois, T. Onfroy, C. Poulard, S. Aji, A. Rémy, and A. Quantin No abstrace available.

Description: A preliminary investigation of rogue waves off the Jiangsu coast, China Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2521-2527, 2014 Author(s): Y. Wang, A.-F. Tao, J.-H. Zheng, D.-J. Doong, J. Fan, and J. Peng Due to the potential disasters induced by rogue waves, research in this field has increased rapidly in the last 2 decades. However, there are still a lot of open questions left, including some classic ones, such as whether the rogues waves are just rare events or not. One of the key reasons is that not enough of the observed rogue waves have been investigated. China has a wide sea area, but none of the research has addressed the observed rogue waves. In the present study, 1 year of observed wave data from Jiangsu coastal area, China, are analyzed. It is found that rogue waves are present, although the wave heights are not very large; furthermore, the probability of their occurrence is similar to the Rayleigh distribution prediction, due to the local silty coastal topography. The characteristics of rouge waves are investigated and the results indicate that a new type of rogue wave may exist.

Description: Estimating velocity from noisy GPS data for investigating the temporal variability of slope movements Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2503-2520, 2014 Author(s): V. Wirz, J. Beutel, S. Gruber, S. Gubler, and R. S. Purves Detecting and monitoring of moving and potentially hazardous slopes requires reliable estimations of velocities. Separating any movement signal from measurement noise is crucial for understanding the temporal variability of slope movements and detecting changes in the movement regime, which may be important indicators of the process. Thus, methods capable of estimating velocity and its changes reliably are required. In this paper we develop and test a method for deriving velocities based on noisy GPS (Global Positioning System) data, suitable for various movement patterns and variable signal-to-noise-ratios (SNR). We tested this method on synthetic data, designed to mimic the characteristics of diverse processes, but where we have full knowledge of the underlying velocity patterns, before applying it to explore data collected.

Description: Decision-tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building structure and content damage Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2531-2547, 2014 Author(s): M. H. Spekkers, M. Kok, F. H. L. R. Clemens, and J. A. E. ten Veldhuis Flood-damage prediction models are essential building blocks in flood risk assessments. So far, little research has been dedicated to damage from small-scale urban floods caused by heavy rainfall, while there is a need for reliable damage models for this flood type among insurers and water authorities. The aim of this paper is to investigate a wide range of damage-influencing factors and their relationships with rainfall-related damage, using decision-tree analysis. For this, district-aggregated claim data from private property insurance companies in the Netherlands were analysed, for the period 1998–2011. The databases include claims of water-related damage (for example, damages related to rainwater intrusion through roofs and pluvial flood water entering buildings at ground floor). Response variables being modelled are average claim size and claim frequency, per district, per day. The set of predictors include rainfall-related variables derived from weather radar images, topographic variables from a digital terrain model, building-related variables and socioeconomic indicators of households. Analyses were made separately for property and content damage claim data. Results of decision-tree analysis show that claim frequency is most strongly associated with maximum hourly rainfall intensity, followed by real estate value, ground floor area, household income, season (property data only), buildings age (property data only), a fraction of homeowners (content data only), a and fraction of low-rise buildings (content data only). It was not possible to develop statistically acceptable trees for average claim size. It is recommended to investigate explanations for the failure to derive models. These require the inclusion of other explanatory factors that were not used in the present study, an investigation of the variability in average claim size at different spatial scales, and the collection of more detailed insurance data that allows one to distinguish between the effects of various damage mechanisms to claim size. Cross-validation results show that decision trees were able to predict 22–26% of variance in claim frequency, which is considerably better compared to results from global multiple regression models (11–18% of variance explained). Still, a large part of the variance in claim frequency is left unexplained, which is likely to be caused by variations in data at subdistrict scale and missing explanatory variables.

Description: Application and prospect of a high-resolution remote sensing and geo-information system in estimating earthquake casualties Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2165-2178, 2014 Author(s): T. Feng, Z. Hong, Q. Fu, S. Ma, X. Jie, H. Wu, C. Jiang, and X. Tong An accurate estimation of a casualty rate is critical in response to earthquake disasters, and could allow an increase in the survival rate. Building damage is considered to be a major cause of earthquake casualties in developing countries. High-resolution satellite imagery (HRSI) can be used to detect the building damage in a period of a short time. This makes it possible to use a model to estimate earthquake casualties immediately after the occurrence of an earthquake. With respect to the capability of HRSI, this study built a new model for estimating the casualty rate in an earthquake disaster based on remote sensing and a geographical information system. Three groups of earthquake data, the 2003 Bam earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and the 2010 Yushu earthquake, were used to evaluate this model. The results indicated that our new model significantly improved the accuracy in predicting the casualty rate. The parameters used in the model vary between developed and developing countries. This study could provide valuable information for a more efficient rescue operation in response to earthquakes.

Description: An integrated approach for the evaluation of technological hazard impacts on air quality: the case of the Val d'Agri oil/gas plant Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2133-2144, 2014 Author(s): M. Calvello, F. Esposito, and S. Trippetta The Val d'Agri area (southern Italy) hosts one of the biggest onshore European reservoir and the largest oil/gas pre-treatment plant, named Centro Olio Val d'Agri (COVA), located in a rural/anthropized context. Several hazards are associated with this plant. These are mainly represented by possible impacts of the COVA atmospheric emissions on the local air quality and human health. This work uses a novel approach based on the integration of air quality measurements from the regional monitoring network, additional experimental measurements (i.e. sub-micrometre particulate matter (PM 1 ) and black carbon (BC)) and advanced statistical analyses to provide a preliminary evaluation of the Val d'Agri air quality state and give some indication of specific areas potentially affected by COVA hazards. Results show that the COVA plant emissions have a particular impact on the air quality of the area closest to it. In this area several pollutants specifically related to the COVA combustion processes (i.e. nitrogen oxides, benzene and toluene) show the highest concentration values and significant correlations. The proposed approach represents a first step in the assessment of the risks associated with oil/gas exploration and pre-treatment activities and a starting point for the development of effective and exportable air quality monitoring strategies.

Description: Modelling wildland fire propagation by tracking random fronts Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2249-2263, 2014 Author(s): G. Pagnini and A. Mentrelli Wildland fire propagation is studied in the literature by two alternative approaches, namely the reaction–diffusion equation and the level-set method. These two approaches are considered alternatives to each other because the solution of the reaction–diffusion equation is generally a continuous smooth function that has an exponential decay, and it is not zero in an infinite domain, while the level-set method, which is a front tracking technique, generates a sharp function that is not zero inside a compact domain. However, these two approaches can indeed be considered complementary and reconciled. Turbulent hot-air transport and fire spotting are phenomena with a random nature and they are extremely important in wildland fire propagation. Consequently, the fire front gets a random character, too; hence, a tracking method for random fronts is needed. In particular, the level-set contour is randomised here according to the probability density function of the interface particle displacement. Actually, when the level-set method is developed for tracking a front interface with a random motion, the resulting averaged process emerges to be governed by an evolution equation of the reaction–diffusion type. In this reconciled approach, the rate of spread of the fire keeps the same key and characterising role that is typical of the level-set approach. The resulting model emerges to be suitable for simulating effects due to turbulent convection, such as fire flank and backing fire, the faster fire spread being because of the actions by hot-air pre-heating and by ember landing, and also due to the fire overcoming a fire-break zone, which is a case not resolved by models based on the level-set method. Moreover, from the proposed formulation, a correction follows for the formula of the rate of spread which is due to the mean jump length of firebrands in the downwind direction for the leeward sector of the fireline contour. The presented study constitutes a proof of concept, and it needs to be subjected to a future validation.

Description: Brief Communication: The interaction of clouds with surface latent heat flux variation before the 2011 M = 6.1 Russia earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2649-2653, 2014 Author(s): Y. Jie and G. Guangmeng Recently, surface latent heat flux (SLHF) data have been widely used to study the anomalies before earthquakes. Most studies use the daily SLHF data. Here we use both the daily SLHF data and the high temporal resolution (four times one day) SLHF data, and compare the SLHF changes with satellite cloud images at the first time. We check the data from 1 September to 30 October 2011, and the result shows that there is really a very high SLHF anomaly (more than 2σ) in the epicenter area just 5 days before the M = 6.1 Russia earthquake that occurred on 14 October 2011. It should be considered as a preseismic precursor if judged with previously published methods, but our comparison between SLHF change and satellite images shows that the SLHF anomaly is contaminated by a thick cloud. It is difficult to verify that this SLHF anomaly is caused by an earthquake and our analysis shows that it is more related to meteorological reason. This example tells us that scientists must know the data's meaning before they use it; if not, they may draw a wrong conclusion. Based on this example, we suggest that previously published SLHF anomalies before earthquakes should be reanalyzed with our method to exclude the false anomalies.

Description: Perception of flood and landslide risk in Italy: a preliminary analysis Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2589-2603, 2014 Author(s): P. Salvati, C. Bianchi, F. Fiorucci, P. Giostrella, I. Marchesini, and F. Guzzetti Inundations and landslides are widespread phenomena in Italy, where they cause severe damage and pose a threat to the population. Little is known about the public perception of landslide and flood risk. This is surprising, as an accurate perception is important for the successful implementation of many risk reduction or adaptation strategies. In an attempt to address this gap, we have conducted two national surveys to measure the perception of landslide and flood risk amongst the population of Italy. The surveys were conducted in 2012 and 2013, and consisted of approximately 3100 computer-assisted telephone interviews for each survey. The samples of the interviewees were statistically representative for a national-scale quantitative assessment. The interviewees were asked questions designed to obtain information on (i) their perception of natural, environmental, and technological risks, (ii) direct experience or general knowledge of the occurrence of landslides and floods in their municipality, (iii) perception of the possible threat posed by landslides and floods to their safety, (iv) general knowledge on the number of victims affected by landslides or floods, and on (v) the factors that the interviewees considered important for controlling landslide and flood risks in Italy. The surveys revealed that the population of Italy fears technological risks more than natural risks. Of the natural risks, earthquakes were considered more dangerous than floods, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Examination of the temporal and geographical distributions of the responses revealed that the occurrence of recent damaging events influenced risk perception locally, and that the perception persisted longer for earthquakes and decreased more rapidly for landslides and floods. We explain the difference by the diverse consequences of the risks. The interviewees considered inappropriate land management the main cause of landslide and food risk, followed by illegal construction, abandonment of the territory, and climate change. Comparison of the risk perception with actual measures of landslide and flood risk, including the number of fatal events, the number of fatalities, and the mortality rates, revealed that in most of the Italian regions, the perception of the threat did not match the long-term risk posed to the population by landslides and floods. This outcome points to a need to foster an understanding of the public towards landslide and flood hazards and risks in Italy.

Description: Bayesian network learning for natural hazard analyses Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2605-2626, 2014 Author(s): K. Vogel, C. Riggelsen, O. Korup, and F. Scherbaum Modern natural hazards research requires dealing with several uncertainties that arise from limited process knowledge, measurement errors, censored and incomplete observations, and the intrinsic randomness of the governing processes. Nevertheless, deterministic analyses are still widely used in quantitative hazard assessments despite the pitfall of misestimating the hazard and any ensuing risks. In this paper we show that Bayesian networks offer a flexible framework for capturing and expressing a broad range of uncertainties encountered in natural hazard assessments. Although Bayesian networks are well studied in theory, their application to real-world data is far from straightforward, and requires specific tailoring and adaptation of existing algorithms. We offer suggestions as how to tackle frequently arising problems in this context and mainly concentrate on the handling of continuous variables, incomplete data sets, and the interaction of both. By way of three case studies from earthquake, flood, and landslide research, we demonstrate the method of data-driven Bayesian network learning, and showcase the flexibility, applicability, and benefits of this approach. Our results offer fresh and partly counterintuitive insights into well-studied multivariate problems of earthquake-induced ground motion prediction, accurate flood damage quantification, and spatially explicit landslide prediction at the regional scale. In particular, we highlight how Bayesian networks help to express information flow and independence assumptions between candidate predictors. Such knowledge is pivotal in providing scientists and decision makers with well-informed strategies for selecting adequate predictor variables for quantitative natural hazard assessments.

Description: Earthquake scenario in West Bengal with emphasis on seismic hazard microzonation of the city of Kolkata, India Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2549-2575, 2014 Author(s): S. K. Nath, M. D. Adhikari, S. K. Maiti, N. Devaraj, N. Srivastava, and L. D. Mohapatra Seismic microzonation is a process of estimating site-specific effects due to an earthquake on urban centers for its disaster mitigation and management. The state of West Bengal, located in the western foreland of the Assam–Arakan Orogenic Belt, the Himalayan foothills and Surma Valley, has been struck by several devastating earthquakes in the past, indicating the need for a seismotectonic review of the province, especially in light of probable seismic threat to its capital city of Kolkata, which is a major industrial and commercial hub in the eastern and northeastern region of India. A synoptic probabilistic seismic hazard model of Kolkata is initially generated at engineering bedrock ( V s 30 ~ 760 m s −1 ) considering 33 polygonal seismogenic sources at two hypocentral depth ranges, 0–25 and 25–70 km; 158 tectonic sources; appropriate seismicity modeling; 14 ground motion prediction equations for three seismotectonic provinces, viz. the east-central Himalaya, the Bengal Basin and Northeast India selected through suitability testing; and appropriate weighting in a logic tree framework. Site classification of Kolkata performed following in-depth geophysical and geotechnical investigations places the city in D1, D2, D3 and E classes. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at a surface-consistent level – i.e., the local seismic hazard related to site amplification performed by propagating the bedrock ground motion with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years through a 1-D sediment column using an equivalent linear analysis – predicts a peak ground acceleration (PGA) range from 0.176 to 0.253 g in the city. A deterministic liquefaction scenario in terms of spatial distribution of liquefaction potential index corresponding to surface PGA distribution places 50% of the city in the possible liquefiable zone. A multicriteria seismic hazard microzonation framework is proposed for judicious integration of multiple themes, namely PGA at the surface, liquefaction potential index, NEHRP soil site class, sediment class, geomorphology and ground water table in a fuzzy protocol in the geographical information system by adopting an analytical hierarchal process. The resulting high-resolution surface consistent hazard, liquefaction and microzonation maps are expected to play vital roles in earthquake-related disaster mitigation and management of the city of Kolkata.

Description: Revision of the geological context of the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, Haiti: implications for slope failures and seismic hazard assessment Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2577-2587, 2014 Author(s): M. Terrier, A. Bialkowski, A. Nachbaur, C. Prépetit, and Y. F. Joseph Following the earthquake of 12 January 2010 in the Port-au-Prince area, the Haitian government, in close cooperation with BRGM, the French geological Survey, decided to undertake a seismic microzonation study of the metropolitan area of the capital in order to take more fully into account the seismic risk in the urbanization and planning of the city under reconstruction. As the first step of the microzonation project, a geological study has been carried out. Deposits of Miocene and Pliocene formations in a marine environment have been identified. These deposits are affected by the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden N80° E fault system and N110° E faults. Tectonic observations and morphological analysis indicate Quaternary activity of several faults mapped in the area of Port-au-Prince. These faults have a N110° trend and show a reverse-sinistral strike-slip motion. Moreover, on the basis of these geological results and of new topographical data, a hazard assessment of ground movements has been made. Along with the map of active faults, the hazard map of ground movements is an integral component of the seismic microzonation study.

Description: Analysing the relationship between rainfalls and landslides to define a mosaic of triggering thresholds for regional-scale warning systems Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2637-2648, 2014 Author(s): S. Segoni, A. Rosi, G. Rossi, F. Catani, and N. Casagli We propose an original approach to develop rainfall thresholds to be used in civil protection warning systems for the occurrence of landslides at regional scale (i.e. tens of thousands of kilometres), and we apply it to Tuscany, Italy (23 000 km 2 ). Purpose-developed software is used to define statistical intensity–duration rainfall thresholds by means of an automated and standardized analysis of rainfall data. The automation and standardization of the analysis brings several advantages that in turn have a positive impact on the applicability of the thresholds to operational warning systems. Moreover, the possibility of defining a threshold in very short times compared to traditional analyses allowed us to subdivide the study area into several alert zones to be analysed independently, with the aim of setting up a specific threshold for each of them. As a consequence, a mosaic of several local rainfall thresholds is set up in place of a single regional threshold. Even if pertaining to the same region, the local thresholds vary substantially and can have very different equations. We subsequently analysed how the physical features of the test area influence the parameters and the equations of the local thresholds, and found that some threshold parameters can be put in relation with the prevailing lithology. In addition, we investigated the possible relations between effectiveness of the threshold and number of landslides used for the calibration. A validation procedure and a quantitative comparison with some literature thresholds showed that the performance of a threshold can be increased if the areal extent of its test area is reduced, as long as a statistically significant landslide sample is present. In particular, we demonstrated that the effectiveness of a warning system can be significantly enhanced if a mosaic of site-specific thresholds is used instead of a single regional threshold.

Description: Rockslides on limestone cliffs with subhorizontal bedding in the southwestern calcareous area of China Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2627-2635, 2014 Author(s): Z. Feng, B. Li, Y. P. Yin, and K. He Calcareous mountainous areas are highly prone to geohazards, and rockslides play an important role in cliff retreat. This study presents three examples of failures of limestone cliffs with subhorizontal bedding in the southwestern calcareous area of China. Field observations and numerical modeling of Yudong Escarpment, Zengzi Cliff, and Wangxia Cliff showed that pre-existing vertical joints passing through thick limestone and the alternation of competent and incompetent layers are the most significant features for rockslides. A "hard-on-soft" cliff made of hard rocks superimposed on soft rocks is prone to rock slump, characterized by shearing through the underlying weak strata along a curved surface and backward tilting. When a slope contains weak interlayers rather than a soft basal, a rock collapse could occur from the compression fracture and tensile split of the rock mass near the interfaces. A rockslide might shear through a hard rock mass if no discontinuities are exposed in the cliff slope, and sliding may occur along a moderately inclined rupture plane. The "toe breakout" mechanism mainly depends on the strength characteristics of the rock mass.

Description: A coupling of hydrologic and hydraulic models appropriate for the fast floods of the Gardon River basin (France) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2899-2920, 2014 Author(s): O. Laganier, P. A. Ayral, D. Salze, and S. Sauvagnargues Mediterranean catchments are regularly affected by fast and flash floods. Numerous hydrologic models have been developed, and allow modelling of these floods. However, these approaches often concern average-size basins of a few hundred km 2 . At larger scales (〉1000 km 2 ), coupling of hydrologic and hydraulic models appears to be an adapted solution. This study has as its first objective the evaluation of the performances of a coupling of models for flood hydrograph modelling. Secondly, the coupling results are compared with those of other modelling options. The aim of these comparisons is to clear up the following points. (1) Is a simplified routing model (lag and route) as efficient as a full hydraulic model for the modelling of hydrographs, in the intermediary downstream part of the stream? (2) Is adding lateral inflows necessary for all studied events? (3) What is the impact of the qualities of upstream hydrologic modelling feeding the coupling? The coupling combines the SCS–LR (Soil Conservation Service–lag-and-route) hydrologic model of the ATHYS platform and the MASCARET 1-D hydraulic model based on full Saint-Venant equations. It is applied to the Gardon River basin (2040 km 2 ) in the south of France. For the seven studied events, the results of the coupling are satisfactory, the calculated Nash indexes varying between 0.61 and 0.97. The comparisons with the other modelling options show the important role of the spatial distribution of rains during events: when rains are centered on the intermediary downstream part of the catchment, adding lateral inflows is necessary; when rains are more important in the upstream part, the quality of the hydrologic modelling upstream of the coupling has a strong impact. Furthermore, the used coupling of models seems well adapted for water rising and flooded area forecasting. The future developments of the tool will concentrate on this point.

Description: Seismic and mechanical studies of the artificially triggered rockfall at Mount Néron (French Alps, December 2011) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3175-3193, 2014 Author(s): P. Bottelin, D. Jongmans, D. Daudon, A. Mathy, A. Helmstetter, V. Bonilla-Sierra, H. Cadet, D. Amitrano, V. Richefeu, L. Lorier, L. Baillet, P. Villard, and F. Donzé The eastern limestone cliff of Mount Néron (French Alps) was the theater for two medium-size rockfalls between summer and winter 2011. On 14 August 2011, a ~2000 m 3 rock compartment detached from the cliff, fell 100 m below and propagated down the slope. Although most of the fallen rocks deposited on the upper part of the slope, some blocks of about 15 m in size were stopped by a ditch and an earthen barrier after a run-out of 800 m. An unstable overhanging ~2600 m 3 compartment remained attached to the cliff and was blasted on 13 December 2011. During this artificially triggered event, 7 blocks reached the same ditch, with volumes ranging from 0.8 to 12 m 3 . A semi-permanent seismic array located about 2.5 km from the site recorded the two events, providing a unique opportunity to understand and to compare the seismic phases generated during natural and artificially triggered rockfalls. Both events have signal duration of ~100 s with comparable maximum amplitudes recorded at large distances (computed local magnitude of 1.14 and 1.05, respectively), most of the energy lying below 20 Hz. Remote sensing techniques (photogrammetry and lidar) were employed before and after the provoked rockfall, allowing the volume and fracturing to be characterized. This event was filmed by two video cameras, and the generated ground motions were recorded using two temporary 3C seismic sensors and three seismic arrays deployed at the slope toe. Videos and seismogram processing provided estimates of the propagation velocity during the successive rockfall phases, which ranges from 12 to 30 m s −1 . The main seismic phases were obtained from combined video and seismic signal analyses. The two most energetic phases are related to the ground impact of fallen material after free fall, and to individual rock block impacts into the ditch and the earthen barrier. These two phases are characterized by similar low-frequency content but show very different particle motions. The discrete element technique allowed reproducing the key features of the rockfall dynamics, yielding propagation velocities compatible with experimental observations.

Description: Analysis of extreme wave events on the southern coast of Brazil Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3195-3205, 2014 Author(s): P. V. Guimarães, L. Farina, and E. E. Toldo Jr. Using the wave model SWAN (simulating waves nearshore), high waves on the southwestern Atlantic generated by extra-tropical cyclones are simulated from 2000 to 2010, and their impact on the Rio Grande do Sul (RS) coast is studied. The modeled waves are compared with buoy data and good agreement is found. The six extreme events in the period that presented significant wave heights above 5 m, on a particular point of interest, are investigated in detail. It is found that the cyclogenetic pattern between the latitudes 31.5 and 34° S is the most favorable for developing high waves. Hovmöller diagrams for deep water show that the region between the south of Rio Grande do Sul up to a latitude of 31.5° S is the most energetic during a cyclone's passage, although the event of May 2008 indicates that the location of this region can vary, depending on the cyclone's displacement. On the other hand, the Hovmöller diagrams for shallow water show that the different shoreface morphologies were responsible for focusing or dissipating the waves' energy; the regions found are in agreement with the observations of erosion and progradation regions. It can be concluded that some of the urban areas of the beaches of Hermenegildo, Cidreira, Pinhal, Tramandaí, Imbé and Torres have been more exposed during the extreme wave events on the Rio Grande do Sul coast, and are more vulnerable to this natural hazard.

Description: Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3151-3168, 2014 Author(s): F. F. Hattermann, S. Huang, O. Burghoff, W. Willems, H. Österle, M. Büchner, and Z. Kundzewicz The aim of the study is to analyze and discuss possible climate change impacts on flood damages in Germany. The study was initiated and supported by the German insurance sector whereby the main goal was to identify general climate-related trends in flood hazard and damages and to explore sensitivity of results to climate scenario uncertainty. The study makes use of climate scenarios regionalized for the main river basins in Germany. A hydrological model (SWIM) that had been calibrated and validated for the main river gauges, was applied to transform these scenarios into discharge for more than 5000 river reaches. Extreme value distribution has been fitted to the time series of river discharge to derive the flood frequency statistics. The hydrological results for each river reach have been linked using the flood statistics to related damage functions provided by the German Insurance Association, considering damages on buildings and small enterprises. The result is that, under the specific scenario conditions, a considerable increase in flood related losses can be expected in Germany in future, warmer, climate.

Description: Study of the seismicity temporal variation for the current seismic hazard evaluation in Val d'Agri, Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3169-3174, 2014 Author(s): I. Baskoutas and A. D'Alessandro This study examines the temporal variation of the seismicity in the Val d'Agri (southern Italy) and adjacent areas, for the current seismic hazard evaluation. The temporal variation of the seismicity is expressed as time series of the number of earthquakes, b value of Gutenberg–Richter relationship or b value of the frequency–magnitude distribution and the seismic energy released in the form of log E 2/3 . The analysis was performed by means of a new research tool that includes visualizing techniques, which helps the interactive exploration and the interpretation of temporal variation changes. The obtained time series show a precursory seismicity pattern, characterized by low and high probability periods, which preceded earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 4.0. The 75% of the examined cases were successfully correlated with a change in seismicity pattern. The average duration of the low and the high probability periods is 10.6 and 13.8 months respectively. These results indicate that the seismicity temporal variation monitoring in a given area and the recognition of the low and high probability periods can contribute to the evaluation, in regular monthly intervals, of current seismic hazard status.

Description: Developing fragility functions for the areas affected by the 2009 Samoa earthquake and tsunami Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3231-3241, 2014 Author(s): H. Gokon, S. Koshimura, K. Imai, M. Matsuoka, Y. Namegaya, and Y. Nishimura Fragility functions in terms of flow depth, flow velocity and hydrodynamic force are developed to evaluate structural vulnerability in the areas affected by the 2009 Samoa earthquake and tsunami. First, numerical simulations of tsunami propagation and inundation are conducted to reproduce the features of tsunami inundation. To validate the results, flow depths measured in field surveys and waveforms measured by Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) gauges are utilized. Next, building damage is investigated by visually interpreting changes between pre- and post-tsunami high-resolution satellite images. Finally, the data related to tsunami features and building damage are integrated using Geographic Information System (GIS), and tsunami fragility functions are developed based on the statistical analyses. From the developed fragility functions, we quantitatively understood the vulnerability of a coastal region in American Samoa characterized by steep terrains and ria coasts.

Description: A decision-support methodology for assessing the sustainability of natural risk management strategies in urban areas Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3207-3230, 2014 Author(s): A. M. Edjossan-Sossou, O. Deck, M. Al Heib, and T. Verdel This paper attempts to provide a decision support framework that can help risk managers in urban areas to improve their decision-making processes related to sustainable management. Currently, risk management strategies should no longer be selected based primarily on economic and technical insight. Managers must address the sustainability of risk management by assessing the impacts of their decisions on the sustainable development of a given territory. These assessments require tools that allow ex ante comparisons of the effectiveness and the likely economic, social and ecological impacts of the alternative management strategies. Therefore, this paper reports a methodological and operational framework, which aims to incorporate sustainability principles in a particular decision by taking all the dimensions that affect sustainability into account. This paper is divided into two main parts: one on the theoretical aspects of the proposed methodology and the other on its application to a flood risks management case in a municipality located in Meurthe-et-Moselle county (France). The results of the case study have shown how the methodology can be suitable for determining the most sustainable decision.

Description: The connection between long-term and short-term risk management strategies for flood and landslide hazards: examples from land-use planning and emergency management in four European case studies Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3261-3278, 2014 Author(s): K. Prenger-Berninghoff, V. J. Cortes, T. Sprague, Z. C. Aye, S. Greiving, W. Głowacki, and S. Sterlacchini Adaptation to complex and unforeseen events requires enhancing the links between planning and preparedness phases to reduce future risks in the most efficient way. In this context, the legal–administrative and cultural context has to be taken into account. This is why four case study areas of the CHANGES 1 project (Nehoiu Valley in Romania, Ubaye Valley in France, Val Canale in Italy, and Wieprzówka catchment in Poland) serve as examples to highlight currently implemented risk management strategies for land-use planning and emergency preparedness. The focus is particularly on flood and landslide hazards. The strategies described in this paper were identified by means of exploratory and informal interviews in each study site. Results reveal that a dearth or, in very few cases, a weak link exists between spatial planners and emergency managers. Management strategies could benefit from formally intensifying coordination and cooperation between emergency services and spatial planning authorities. Moreover, limited financial funds urge for a more efficient use of resources and better coordination towards long-term activities. The research indicates potential benefits to establishing or, in some cases, strengthening this link through contextual changes, e.g., in organizational or administrative structures, that facilitate proper interaction between risk management and spatial planning. It also provides suggestions for further development in the form of information and decision support systems as a key connection point. 1 Marie Curie ITN CHANGES – Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists

Description: PM 1 measurements at a site close to an oil/gas pre-treatment plant (Agri Valley – southern Italy): a preliminary study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2337-2346, 2014 Author(s): S. Trippetta, R. Caggiano, and S. Sabia A PM 1 (i.e. particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 1.0 μm) short-term monitoring campaign was carried out in the Agri Valley (southern Italy) in September 2012. This area is of international concern, since it houses one of the largest European on-shore reservoirs and the largest oil/gas pre-treatment plant (i.e. the Centro Olio Val d'Agri – COVA) within an anthropised context. PM 1 measurements were performed in Viggiano, the nearest town to the COVA plant and one of the most populated towns of the Agri Valley. During the study period, the PM 1 daily concentrations ranged from 1.2 to 8.4 μg m −3 , with a mean value of 4.6 μg m −3 . Regarding the PM 1 chemical composition, it can be observed that S and typical crustal elements were the most abundant constituents of the PM 1 collected. By applying principal component analysis (PCA), it was pointed out that crustal soil, biomass and wood burning, secondary atmospheric reactions involving COVA plant emissions and local soil particles, and traffic were the main sources contributing to the PM 1 measured in the area under study. Moreover, a possible contribution of the long-range transport of African dust was observed.

Description: Stochastic daily precipitation model with a heavy-tailed component Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2321-2335, 2014 Author(s): N. M. Neykov, P. N. Neytchev, and W. Zucchini Stochastic daily precipitation models are commonly used to generate scenarios of climate variability or change on a daily timescale. The standard models consist of two components describing the occurrence and intensity series, respectively. Binary logistic regression is used to fit the occurrence data, and the intensity series is modeled using a continuous-valued right-skewed distribution, such as gamma, Weibull or lognormal. The precipitation series is then modeled using the joint density, and standard software for generalized linear models can be used to perform the computations. A drawback of these precipitation models is that they do not produce a sufficiently heavy upper tail for the distribution of daily precipitation amounts; they tend to underestimate the frequency of large storms. In this study, we adapted the approach of Furrer and Katz (2008) based on hybrid distributions in order to correct for this shortcoming. In particular, we applied hybrid gamma–generalized Pareto (GP) and hybrid Weibull–GP distributions to develop a stochastic precipitation model for daily rainfall at Ihtiman in western Bulgaria. We report the results of simulations designed to compare the models based on the hybrid distributions and those based on the standard distributions. Some potential difficulties are outlined.

Description: Resolving vorticity-driven lateral fire spread using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere–fire numerical model Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2359-2371, 2014 Author(s): C. C. Simpson, J. J. Sharples, and J. P. Evans Vorticity-driven lateral fire spread (VLS) is a form of dynamic fire behaviour, during which a wildland fire spreads rapidly across a steep leeward slope in a direction approximately transverse to the background winds. VLS is often accompanied by a downwind extension of the active flaming region and intense pyro-convection. In this study, the WRF-Fire (WRF stands for Weather Research and Forecasting) coupled atmosphere–fire model is used to examine the sensitivity of resolving VLS to both the horizontal and vertical grid spacing, and the fire-to-atmosphere coupling from within the model framework. The atmospheric horizontal and vertical grid spacing are varied between 25 and 90 m, and the fire-to-atmosphere coupling is either enabled or disabled. At high spatial resolutions, the inclusion of fire-to-atmosphere coupling increases the upslope and lateral rate of spread by factors of up to 2.7 and 9.5, respectively. This increase in the upslope and lateral rate of spread diminishes at coarser spatial resolutions, and VLS is not modelled for a horizontal and vertical grid spacing of 90 m. The lateral fire spread is driven by fire whirls formed due to an interaction between the background winds and the vertical circulation generated at the flank of the fire front as part of the pyro-convective updraft. The laterally advancing fire fronts become the dominant contributors to the extreme pyro-convection. The results presented in this study demonstrate that both high spatial resolution and two-way atmosphere–fire coupling are required to model VLS with WRF-Fire.

Description: Reducing volcanic risk on Fogo Volcano, Cape Verde, through a participatory approach: which outcome? Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2347-2358, 2014 Author(s): P. Texier-Teixeira, F. Chouraqui, A. Perrillat-Collomb, F. Lavigne, J. R. Cadag, and D. Grancher This research paper presents the outcomes of Work Package 5 (socio-economical vulnerability assessment and community-based disaster risk reduction) of the MIAVITA (MItigate and Assess risk from Volcanic Impact on Terrain and human Activities) research programme conducted on Fogo Volcano, Cape Verde. The study lasted for almost 3 years (May 2010 to January 2012), of which most of the time was spent in the village of Chã das Caldeiras, situated within the 9 km wide caldera of the volcano inside Fogo Natural Park. The objectives of the programme included assessment of the vulnerability of the community at risk in terms of livelihoods, access to resources, and power relations between the local people and the different public and private institutions. These are important factors that need to be investigated in order to understand the root causes of vulnerability of the local people. This case study shows that the voluntary exposure of people to volcanic threats is linked to daily access to sources of livelihood, especially agriculture and tourism. This is despite the perception of people of the risk to their lives and properties. In order to counter the factors of vulnerability, the study also aimed to identify and enhance local capacities. To achieve such an objective, a participatory three-dimensional mapping (P3DM) activity was conducted to facilitate the dialogue between the local people and the different stakeholders as well as to prepare plans and measures to reduce volcanic risk. The P3DM was a half success considering that it has not yet led to an operational plan which takes into account the local capacities. The main reasons included (1) the non-participatory aspect of the project at the beginning which should have identified priorities for people and let them lead the project to ensure the sustainability of (2) deep conflicts within the community which complicated the focus group discussions around the 3-D map, and the difficulties in involving more marginalised people like women and the youth, and (3) the fact that volcanic risk is not a priority for the people, who are more concerned with daily difficulties due to unsustainable livelihoods, a lack of access to water, land tenure, and the restrictions by the Fogo Natural Park administration and the municipal officials. Still, the study was successful in creating a space for dialogue between the local people and the outside stakeholders such as the Natural Park Administration, the Civil Protection, and the Municipality of Santa Catarina, who have all participated actively during the course of the project.

Description: Agricultural losses related to frost events: use of the 850 hPa level temperature as an explanatory variable of the damage cost Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2375-2386, 2014 Author(s): K. Papagiannaki, K. Lagouvardos, V. Kotroni, and G. Papagiannakis The objective of this study is the analysis of damaging frost events in agriculture, by examining the relationship between the daily minimum temperature in the lower atmosphere (at an isobaric level of 850 hPa) and crop production losses. Furthermore, the study suggests a methodological approach for estimating agriculture risk due to frost events, with the aim of estimating the short-term probability and magnitude of frost-related financial losses for different levels of 850 hPa temperature. Compared with near-surface temperature forecasts, temperature forecasts at the level of 850 hPa are less influenced by varying weather conditions or by local topographical features; thus, they constitute a more consistent indicator of the forthcoming weather conditions. The analysis of the daily monetary compensations for insured crop losses caused by weather events in Greece shows that, during the period 1999–2011, frost caused more damage to crop production than any other meteorological phenomenon. Two regions of different geographical latitudes are examined further, to account for the differences in the temperature ranges developed within their ecological environment. Using a series of linear and logistic regressions, we found that minimum temperature (at an 850 hPa level), grouped into three categories according to its magnitude, and seasonality, are significant variables when trying to explain crop damage costs, as well as to predict and quantify the likelihood and magnitude of damaging frost events.

Description: Corrigendum to "Modelling wildland fire propagation by tracking random fronts" published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2249–2263, 2014 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2373-2373, 2014 Author(s): G. Pagnini and A. Mentrelli No abstract available.

Description: Analysis of synoptic conditions for tornadic days over western Greece Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2409-2421, 2014 Author(s): P. T. Nastos and I. T. Matsangouras Tornadoes have been reported in Greece during the last few decades and recent studies have given evidence that western Greece is an area vulnerable to tornadoes, waterspouts and funnel clouds In this study, the composite means and anomalies of synoptic conditions for tornadic events (tornadoes, waterspouts and funnel clouds) over western Greece are analyzed and discussed. The daily composite means of synoptic conditions were based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis data sets, for the period 12 August 1953 to 31 December 2012. The daily composite anomalies were calculated with respect to 30 years of climatological study (1981–2010) of the synoptic conditions. The analysis was carried out in terms of seasonal and monthly variability of composite means and anomalies of synoptic conditions for specific isobaric levels of 500, 700, 850, 925 hPa and the sea level pressure (SLP). In addition, an analysis and discussion about the dynamic lifted index from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data sets is presented. The daily composite mean analysis of 500 hPa revealed a trough line across the northern Adriatic Sea and central Italy, associated with a SW upper-air stream over western Greece. The maximum composite anomalies were depicted at the isobaric level of 500 hPa during autumn, spring and summer, against winter when the anomaly appeared at 925 hPa isobaric level. In addition, 48% of tornado events during the autumn season occurred in pre-frontal weather conditions (cold fronts) and 27% developed after the passage of the cold front. Furthermore, the main difference in synoptic patterns between tornado and waterspout days along western Greece during the autumn season is the maximum daily composite anomaly over the Gulf of Taranto.

Description: Rainstorms able to induce flash floods in a Mediterranean-climate region (Calabria, southern Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2423-2434, 2014 Author(s): O. G. Terranova and S. L. Gariano Heavy rainstorms often induce flash flooding, one of the natural disasters most responsible for damage to man-made infrastructures and loss of lives, also adversely affecting the opportunities for socio-economic development of Mediterranean countries. The frequently dramatic damage of flash floods are often detected, with sufficient accuracy, by post-event surveys, but rainfall causing them are still only roughly characterized. With the aim of improving the understanding of the temporal structure and spatial distribution of heavy rainstorms in the Mediterranean context, a statistical analysis was carried out in Calabria (southern Italy) concerning rainstorms that mainly induced flash floods, but also shallow landslides and debris flows. Thus, a method is proposed – based on the overcoming of heuristically predetermined threshold values of cumulated rainfall, maximum intensity, and kinetic energy of the rainfall event – to select and characterize the rainstorms able to induce flash floods in the Mediterranean-climate countries. Therefore, the obtained (heavy) rainstorms were automatically classified and studied according to their structure in time, localization, and extension. Rainfall-runoff watershed models can consequently benefit from the enhanced identification of design storms, with a realistic time structure integrated with the results of the spatial analysis. A survey of flash flood events recorded in the last decades provides a preliminary validation of the method proposed to identify the heavy rainstorms and synthetically describe their characteristics. The notable size of the employed sample, including data with a very detailed resolution in time that relate to several rain gauges well-distributed throughout the region, gives robustness to the obtained results.

Description: Bayesian trend analysis of extreme wind using observed and hindcast series off the Catalan coast, NW Mediterranean Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2387-2397, 2014 Author(s): M. I. Ortego, J. J. Egozcue, and R. Tolosana-Delgado It has been suggested that climate change might modify the occurrence rate and magnitude of large ocean-wave and wind storms. The hypothesised reason is the increase of available energy in the atmosphere–ocean system. Forecasting models are commonly used to assess these effects, given that good-quality data series are often too short. However, forecasting systems are often tuned to reproduce the average behaviour, and there are concerns on their relevance for extremal regimes. We present a methodology of simultaneous analysis of observed and hindcast data with the aim of extracting potential time drifts as well as systematic regime discrepancies between the two data sources. The method is based on the peak-over-threshold (POT) approach and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) within a Bayesian estimation framework. In this context, storm events are considered points in time, and modelled as a Poisson process. Storm magnitude over a reference threshold is modelled with a GPD, a flexible model that captures the tail behaviour of the magnitude distribution. All model parameters, i.e. shape and location of the magnitude GPD and the Poisson occurrence rate, are affected by a trend in time. Moreover, a systematic difference between parameters of hindcast and observed series is considered. Finally, the posterior joint distribution of all these trend parameters is studied using a conventional Gibbs sampler. This method is applied to compare hindcast and observed series of average wind speed at a deep buoy location off the Catalan coast (NE Spain, western Mediterranean; buoy data from 2001; REMO wind hindcasting from 1958 on). Appropriate scale and domain of attraction are discussed, and the reliability of trends in time is addressed.

Description: Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2399-2408, 2014 Author(s): G. Vessia, M. Parise, M. T. Brunetti, S. Peruccacci, M. Rossi, C. Vennari, and F. Guzzetti Over the last 40 years, many contributions have identified empirical rainfall thresholds (e.g. rainfall intensity ( I ) vs. rainfall duration ( D ), cumulated rainfall vs. rainfall duration (ED), cumulated rainfall vs. rainfall intensity (EI)) for the possible initiation of shallow landslides, based on local and global inventories. Although different methods to trace the threshold curves have been proposed and discussed in literature, a systematic study to develop an automated procedure to select the rainfall event responsible for the landslide occurrence has only rarely been addressed. Objective criteria for estimating the rainfall responsible for the landslide occurrence play a prominent role on the threshold values. In this paper, two criteria for the identification of the effective rainfall events are presented. The first criterion is based on the analysis of the time series of rainfall mean intensity values over 1 month preceding the landslide occurrence. The second criterion is based on the analysis of the trend in the time function of the cumulated mean intensity series calculated from the rainfall records measured through rain gauges. The two criteria have been implemented in an automated procedure that is written in the R language. A sample of 100 shallow landslides collected in Italy from 2002 to 2012 was used to calibrate the procedure. The cumulated event rainfall ( E ) and duration ( D ) of rainfall events that triggered the documented landslides are calculated through the new procedure and are fitted with power law in the D , E diagram. The results are discussed by comparing the D , E pairs calculated by the automated procedure and the ones by the expert method.