ALBERT

Description: A catalog of high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2867-2882, 2014 Author(s): P. Stucki, S. Brönnimann, O. Martius, C. Welker, M. Imhof, N. von Wattenwyl, and N. Philipp In recent decades, extremely hazardous windstorms have caused enormous losses to buildings, infrastructure and forests in Switzerland. This has increased societal and scientific interest in the intensity and frequency of historical high-impact storms. However, high-resolution wind data and damage statistics mostly span recent decades only. For this study, we collected quantitative (e.g., volumes of windfall timber, losses relating to buildings) and descriptive (e.g., forestry or insurance reports) information on the impact of historical windstorms. To define windstorm severity, normalized and declustered quantitative data were processed by extreme value statistics. Descriptive information was classified using a conceptual guideline. Validation with independent damage information, as well as comparison with wind measurements and a reanalysis, indicates that the most hazardous winter storms are captured, while too few moderate windstorms are detected. Strong storms in the wind measurements and reanalysis are thus added to the catalog. The final catalog encompasses approximately 240 high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859. It features three robust severity classes and contains eight extreme windstorms. Evidence of high winter storm activity in the early and late 20th century compared to the mid-20th century in both damage and wind data indicates a co-variability of hazard and related damage on decadal timescales.

Description: A GIS-based model to estimate flood consequences and the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in urban areas Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2847-2865, 2014 Author(s): R. Albano, A. Sole, J. Adamowski, and L. Mancusi Efficient decision-making regarding flood risk reduction has become a priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries. Risk analysis methods and techniques are a useful tool for evaluating costs and benefits of possible interventions. Within this context, a methodology to estimate flood consequences was developed in this paper that is based on GIS, and integrated with a model that estimates the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in an urban area. The majority of the currently available approaches do not properly analyse road network connections and dependencies within systems, and as such a loss of roads could cause significant damages and problems to emergency services in cases of flooding. The proposed model is unique in that it provides a maximum-impact estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk), in the emergency phase. The results of a case study in the Puglia region in southern Italy are described to illustrate the practical applications of this newly proposed approach. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for defining a hierarchy between different infrastructure in the urban area through the identification of particular components whose operation and efficiency are critical for emergency management. This information can be used by decision-makers to prioritize risk reduction interventions in flood emergencies in urban areas, given limited financial resources.

Description: Wind waves in the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2883-2897, 2014 Author(s): V. S. Arkhipkin, F. N. Gippius, K. P. Koltermann, and G. V. Surkova In this study we describe the wind wave fields in the Black Sea. The general aims of the work were the estimation of statistical wave parameters and the assessment of interannual and seasonal wave parameter variability. The domain of this study was the entire Black Sea. Wave parameters were calculated by means of the SWAN wave model on a 5 × 5 km rectangular grid. Initial conditions (wind speed and direction) for the period between 1949 and 2010 were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. According to our calculations the average significant wave height on the Black Sea does not exceed 0.7 m. Areas of most significant heavy sea are the southwestern and the northeastern parts of the sea as expressed in the spatial distribution of significant wave heights, wave lengths and periods. Besides, long-term annual variations of wave parameters were estimated. Thus, linear trends of the annual total duration of storms and of their quantity are nearly stable over the hindcast period. However, an intensification of storm activity is observed in the 1960s–1970s.

Description: Factors affecting flood insurance purchase in residential properties in Johor, Malaysia Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3297-3310, 2014 Author(s): U. G. Aliagha, T. E. Jin, W. W. Choong, M. Nadzri Jaafar, and H. M. Ali High-impact floods have become a virtually annual experience in Malaysia, yet flood insurance has remained a grossly neglected part of comprehensive integrated flood risk management. Using discriminant analysis, this study seeks to identify the demand-side variables that best predict flood insurance purchase and risk aversion between two groups of residential homeowners in three districts of Johor State, Malaysia: those who purchased flood insurance and those who did not. Our results revealed an overall 34% purchase rate, with Kota Tinggi district having the highest (44%) and thus the highest degree of flood risk aversion. The Wilks' lambda F test for equality of group means, standardised discriminant function coefficients, structure correlation, and canonical correlation has clearly shown that there are strong significant attribute differences between the two groups of homeowners, based on the measures of objective flood risk exposure, subjective risk perception, and socio-economic cum demographic variables. However, the measures of subjective risk perception were found to be more predictive of flood insurance purchase and flood risk aversion.

Description: Moraine-dammed lake failures in Patagonia and assessment of outburst susceptibility in the Baker Basin Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3243-3259, 2014 Author(s): P. Iribarren Anacona, K.P. Norton, and A. Mackintosh Glacier retreat since the Little Ice Age has resulted in the development or expansion of hundreds of glacial lakes in Patagonia. Some of these lakes have produced large (≥ 10 6 m 3 ) Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) damaging inhabited areas. GLOF hazard studies in Patagonia have been mainly based on the analysis of short-term series (≤ 50 years) of flood data and until now no attempt has been made to identify the relative susceptibility of lakes to failure. Power schemes and associated infrastructure are planned for Patagonian basins that have historically been affected by GLOFs, and we now require a thorough understanding of the characteristics of dangerous lakes in order to assist with hazard assessment and planning. In this paper, the conditioning factors of 16 outbursts from moraine-dammed lakes in Patagonia were analysed. These data were used to develop a classification scheme designed to assess outburst susceptibility, based on image classification techniques, flow routine algorithms and the Analytical Hierarchy Process. This scheme was applied to the Baker Basin, Chile, where at least seven moraine-dammed lakes have failed in historic time. We identified 386 moraine-dammed lakes in the Baker Basin of which 28 were classified with high or very high outburst susceptibility. Commonly, lakes with high outburst susceptibility are in contact with glaciers and have moderate (〉 8°) to steep (〉 15°) dam outlet slopes, akin to failed lakes in Patagonia. The proposed classification scheme is suitable for first-order GLOF hazard assessments in this region. However, rapidly changing glaciers in Patagonia make detailed analysis and monitoring of hazardous lakes and glaciated areas upstream from inhabited areas or critical infrastructure necessary, in order to better prepare for hazards emerging from an evolving cryosphere.

Description: Epic landslide erosion from mountain roads in Yunnan, China – challenges for sustainable development Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3093-3104, 2014 Author(s): R. C. Sidle, M. Ghestem, and A. Stokes Expanding systems of mountain roads in developing countries have significantly increased the risk of landslides and sedimentation, and have created vulnerabilities for residents and aquatic resources. We measured landslide erosion along seven road segments in steep terrain in the upper Salween River basin, Yunnan, China and estimated sediment delivery to channels. Landslide erosion rates along the roads ranged from 2780 to 48 235 Mg ha −1 yr −1 , the upper end of this range being the highest rate ever reported along mountain roads. The two roads with the highest landslide erosion (FG1 = 12 966 Mg ha −1 yr −1 ; DXD = 48 235 Mg ha −1 yr −1 ) had some of the highest sediment delivery rates to channels (about 80 and 86%, respectively). Overall, 3 times more landslides occurred along cut slopes compared to fill slopes, but fill slope failures had a combined mass 〉 1.3 times that of cut slope failures. Many small landslides occurred along road cuts, but these were often trapped on the road surface. Given the magnitude of the landslide problem and the lack of attention to this issue, a more sustainable approach for mountain road development is outlined based on an analysis of landslide susceptibility and how thresholds for landslide trigger mechanisms would be modified by road location and different construction techniques.

Description: Evaluation of forest fire models on a large observation database Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3077-3091, 2014 Author(s): J. B. Filippi, V. Mallet, and B. Nader This paper presents the evaluation of several fire propagation models using a large set of observed fires. The observation base is composed of 80 Mediterranean fire cases of different sizes, which come with the limited information available in an operational context (burned surface and approximative ignition point). Simulations for all cases are carried out with four different front velocity models. The results are compared with several error scoring methods applied to each of the 320 simulations. All tasks are performed in a fully automated manner, with simulations run as first guesses with no tuning for any of the models or cases. This approach leads to a wide range of simulation performance, including some of the bad simulation results to be expected in an operational context. Disregarding the quality of the input data, it is found that the models can be ranked based on their performance and that the most complex models outperform the more empirical ones. Data and source codes used for this paper are freely available to the community.

Description: Goal-oriented networks and capacity building for natural hazards – examples in the Dresden region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 81-94, 2014 Author(s): G. Hutter Networks and networking are important for building social capacities for natural hazards. However, up to now, it has been an open question which types of networks contribute to capacity building under certain circumstances. The paper focuses on the type of a goal-oriented network. The distinction between goal orientation and goal directedness is used to show the following: goal directedness of networks to build capacities for natural hazards involves intensive and continuous processes of "sensemaking" (Weick, 1995) to specify the network goal. This process of specifying an initial goal statement is important in small and large networks at the regional level. The governance form of a lead organization network facilitates goal specification. The paper illustrates these findings through evidence from two case studies conducted in the Dresden region in Germany.

Description: Assessing the quality of landslide susceptibility maps – case study Lower Austria Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 95-118, 2014 Author(s): H. Petschko, A. Brenning, R. Bell, J. Goetz, and T. Glade Landslide susceptibility maps are helpful tools to identify areas potentially prone to future landslide occurrence. As more and more national and provincial authorities demand for these maps to be computed and implemented in spatial planning strategies, several aspects of the quality of the landslide susceptibility model and the resulting classified map are of high interest. In this study of landslides in Lower Austria, we focus on the model form uncertainty to assess the quality of a flexible statistical modelling technique, the generalized additive model (GAM). The study area (15 850 km 2 ) is divided into 16 modelling domains based on lithology classes. A model representing the entire study area is constructed by combining these models. The performances of the models are assessed using repeated k -fold cross-validation with spatial and random subsampling. This reflects the variability of performance estimates arising from sampling variation. Measures of spatial transferability and thematic consistency are applied to empirically assess model quality. We also analyse and visualize the implications of spatially varying prediction uncertainties regarding the susceptibility map classes by taking into account the confidence intervals of model predictions. The 95% confidence limits fall within the same susceptibility class in 85% of the study area. Overall, this study contributes to advancing open communication and assessment of model quality related to statistical landslide susceptibility models.

Description: Review Article: Structural flood-protection measures referring to several European case studies Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 135-142, 2014 Author(s): A. Kryžanowski, M. Brilly, S. Rusjan, and S. Schnabl The paper presents a review of structural measures that were taken to cope with floods in some cities along the Danube River, such as Vienna, Bratislava, and Belgrade. These cities were also considered as case studies within the KULTURisk project. The structural measures are reviewed and compared to each other according to the type, duration of application, the return period of the design flood event, how the project measures are integrated into spatial planning and the problems that occur in the flood defences today. Based on this review, some suggestions are given on how to improve the flood risk management in flood-prone areas.