ALBERT

Description: Kinematics of a mass movement constrained by sparse and inhomogeneous data Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1609-1618, 2011 Author(s): M. Karbon, E. Brückl, E. Hegedüs, and A. Preh On 12 February 2008, a landslide occurred along a 50 m high bank of the Danube river near Dunaszekcsö, Hungary. The initial state is only incompletely documented and the geodetic data acquired after the mass movement are sparse. A generalized 3-D topographic model of the landslide and its surrounding area was assembled and a representative longitudinal profile extracted. The reconstruction of the original surface is based on an orthophoto as well as on morphological considerations. Recorded observations include the locations of the outcrops of basal sliding surfaces, displacements at the main scarp and in the lower part of the slide, and a value to describe the total mass transport. Such sparse and inhomogeneous data were insufficient to derive a comprehensive documentation of the landslide or obtain adequate constraints for an accurate numerical analysis. Therefore, slider block models were fitted to the field data, which have only a small number of free parameters. A general view on the morphology of the mass movement justifies its classification as a rotational slide. A double slider block model fits all observational parameters within their error margin and supplies valuable information on the geometry of the slide. Estimates of the residual friction angles were derived and the question of reactivation was addressed. Finite Difference (FD) modelling and the application of conventional stability analysis support the geometry of the slider blocks and the computed average residual friction angles. Generally, the results are assumed to represent preliminary information, which could only be attained by the combination of the thinly distributed geodetic data with qualitative morphological observations and the implementation of a model. This type of information can be gained quickly and may be valuable for preliminary hazard mitigation measures or the planning of a comprehensive exploration and monitoring program.

Description: Looking for evidence of climate change impacts in the eastern Irish Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1641-1656, 2011 Author(s): L. S. Esteves, J. J. Williams, and J. M. Brown Although storminess is often cited as a driver of long-term coastal erosion, a lack of suitable datasets has only allowed objective assessment of this claim in a handful of case studies. This reduces our ability to understand and predict how the coastline may respond to an increase in "storminess" as suggested by global and regional climate models. With focus on 16 km of the Sefton coastline bordering the eastern Irish Sea (UK), this paper analyses available measured datasets of water level, surge level, wave height, wind speed and barometric pressure with the objective of finding trends in metocean climate that are consistent with predictions. The paper then examines rates of change in shoreline position over the period 1894 to 2005 with the aim of establishing relationships with climatic variability using a range of measured and modelled metocean parameters (with time spans varying from two to eight decades). With the exception of the mean monthly wind speed, available metocean data do not indicate any statistically significant changes outside seasonal and decadal cycles. No clear relationship was found between changes in metocean conditions and rates of shoreline change along the Sefton coast. High interannual variability and the lack of long-term measurements make unambiguous correlations between climate change and shoreline evolution problematic. However, comparison between the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAOw) and coastline changes suggest increased erosion at times of decreasing NAOw values and reduced erosion at times of increasing NAOw values. Erosion tends to be more pronounced when decreasing NAOw values lead to a strong negative NAO phase. At present, anthropogenic changes in the local sediment budget and the short-term impact of extreme events are still the largest threat likely to affect coastal flooding and erosion risk in the short- and medium-term. Nevertheless, the potential impacts of climate change in the long-term should not be ignored.

Description: Comparing historical-hydrogeomorphological reconstitution and hydrological-hydraulic modelling in the estimation of flood-prone areas – a case study in Central Portugal Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1669-1681, 2011 Author(s): P. P. Santos, A. O. Tavares, and A. I. A. S. S. Andrade The Arunca River basin in Central Portugal has a historical record of hazardous events related to floods, causing widespread disturbance. This article describes the application of two approaches based on well-known methods for the estimation of flood-prone areas: (i) historical-hydrogeomorphological reconstitution, applied to the entire Arunca River basin, and (ii) hydrological-hydraulic modelling, applied to four sections selected from different (upper, middle and lower) sectors of the basin and including urban and rural areas along the Arunca River. The mapping of the flood-prone areas obtained by these two methods was compared in order to identify the main differences and similarities. Human interventions (river channel and floodplain morphological changes) were found to be the main factor explaining the differences and similarities between the results obtained by both methods. The application of hydrological-hydraulic modelling proved important in reinforcing the results of the historical-hydrogeomorphological method; it also helped in complementing the results produced by the latter method in urban areas and in areas with insufficient historical records. The application of the historical-hydrogeomorphological method, in turn, allowed for the size of the flood-prone areas to be determined where the primary data (e.g. geometry, roughness and flow) was not accurate enough for hydrological-hydraulic modelling. The methodological approach adopted demonstrates the strong complementary relationship between the different existing methods for estimating flood-prone areas, and may be reproduced for other drainage basins.

Description: The contribution of engineering surveys by means of GPS to the determination of crustal movements in Istanbul Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1705-1713, 2011 Author(s): M. Özyaşar and M. T. Özlüdemir Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are space based positioning techniques and widely used in geodetic applications. Geodetic networking accomplished by engineering surveys constitutes one of these tasks. Geodetic networks are used as the base of all kinds of geodetic implementations, Co from the cadastral plans to the relevant surveying processes during the realization of engineering applications. Geodetic networks consist of control points positioned in a defined reference frame. In fact, such positional information could be useful for other studies as well. One of such fields is geodynamic studies that use the changes of positions of control stations within a network in a certain time period to understand the characteristics of tectonic movements. In Turkey, which is located in tectonically active zones and struck by major earthquakes quite frequently, the positional information obtained in engineering surveys could be very useful for earthquake related studies. For this purpose, a GPS (Global Positioning System) network of 650 stations distributed over Istanbul (Istanbul GPS Triangulation Network; abbreviated IGNA) covering the northern part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) was established in 1997 and measured in 1999. From 1998 to 2004, the IGNA network was extended to 1888 stations covering an area of about 6000 km 2 , the whole administration area of Istanbul. All 1888 stations within the IGNA network were remeasured in 2005. In these two campaigns there existed 452 common points, and between these two campaigns two major earthquakes took place, on 17 August and 12 November 1999 with a Richter scale magnitude of 7.4 and 7.2, respectively. Several studies conducted for estimating the horizontal and vertical displacements as a result of these earthquakes on NAFZ are discussed in this paper. In geodynamic projects carried out before the earthquakes in 1999, an annual average velocity of 2–2.5 cm for the stations along the NAFZ were estimated. Studies carried out using GPS observations in the same area after these earthquakes indicated that point displacements vary depending on their distance to the epicentres of the earthquakes. But the directions of point displacements are similar. The results obtained through the analysis of the IGNA network also show that there is a common trend in the directions of point displacements in the study area. In this paper, the past studies about the tectonics of Marmara region are summarised and the results of the displacement analysis on the IGNA network are discussed.

Description: Quantitative estimation of landslide risk from rapid debris slides on natural slopes in the Nilgiri hills, India Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1723-1743, 2011 Author(s): P. Jaiswal, C. J. van Westen, and V. Jetten A quantitative procedure for estimating landslide risk to life and property is presented and applied in a mountainous area in the Nilgiri hills of southern India. Risk is estimated for elements at risk located in both initiation zones and run-out paths of potential landslides. Loss of life is expressed as individual risk and as societal risk using F-N curves, whereas the direct loss of properties is expressed in monetary terms. An inventory of 1084 landslides was prepared from historical records available for the period between 1987 and 2009. A substantially complete inventory was obtained for landslides on cut slopes (1042 landslides), while for natural slopes information on only 42 landslides was available. Most landslides were shallow translational debris slides and debris flowslides triggered by rainfall. On natural slopes most landslides occurred as first-time failures. For landslide hazard assessment the following information was derived: (1) landslides on natural slopes grouped into three landslide magnitude classes, based on landslide volumes, (2) the number of future landslides on natural slopes, obtained by establishing a relationship between the number of landslides on natural slopes and cut slopes for different return periods using a Gumbel distribution model, (3) landslide susceptible zones, obtained using a logistic regression model, and (4) distribution of landslides in the susceptible zones, obtained from the model fitting performance (success rate curve). The run-out distance of landslides was assessed empirically using landslide volumes, and the vulnerability of elements at risk was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific risk was estimated individually for tea/coffee and horticulture plantations, transport infrastructures, buildings, and people both in initiation and run-out areas. Risks were calculated by considering the minimum, average, and maximum landslide volumes in each magnitude class and the corresponding minimum, average, and maximum run-out distances and vulnerability values, thus obtaining a range of risk values per return period. The results indicate that the total annual minimum, average, and maximum losses are about US$ 44 000, US$ 136 000 and US$ 268 000, respectively. The maximum risk to population varies from 2.1 × 10 −1 for one or more lives lost to 6.0 × 10 −2 yr −1 for 100 or more lives lost. The obtained results will provide a basis for planning risk reduction strategies in the Nilgiri area.

Description: Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1795-1805, 2011 Author(s): R. Moratiel, R. L. Snyder, J. M. Durán, and A. M. Tarquis The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows possible future situations 50 yr from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ET o ). The maximum temperature ( T max ), minimum temperature ( T min ), dew point ( T d ), wind speed ( U ) and net radiation ( R n ) trends during the 1980–2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman-Montheith equation to estimate ET o . Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO 2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, taking the concentration of CO 2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly) into consideration. The scenarios studied showed the changes in ET o as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables T max , T min , T d , U and R n with current and future CO 2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ET o showed increases between 118 mm (11 %) and 55 mm (5 %) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin's crops.

Description: Possible interrelation between the lead time of precursory seismic electric signals (SES) and geodynamics in Aegean Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1599-1603, 2011 Author(s): E. Dologlou The seismicity of the last 15 years in the Aegean Sea revealed that earthquakes ( M w 〉 5) with epicentres falling within the Sporades basin and the confined area north of Samos island were preceded by electric seismic signals (SES) with a remarkably long lead time. A possible explanation of this behaviour by means of specific tectonics and geodynamics which characterise these two regions, such as a significant small crustal thickness and a high heat flow rate, has been attempted. New data seem to strengthen the above hypothesis.

Description: Daytime variations of foE connected to earthquakes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1807-1812, 2011 Author(s): E. V. Liperovskaya, V. V. Bogdanov, P.-F. Biagi, C.-V. Meister, and V. A. Liperovsky In the present work it is shown that, in accordance with the observations of the vertical sounding station "Tashkent", the critical foE-frequency of the daytime E-layer increases about one day before winter-earthquakes with magnitudes M 〉 5 and depths of the epicentre of h 〈 60 km, which appeared at distances of R 〈 2000 km from the station. The reliability of the result is larger than 99 %. The phenomenon is not observed for summer-earthquakes. It seems to be determined by the atmospheric wind system. Further, the variations of the foE-frequency are compared with possible simultaneous variations of the critical frequency foF2 of the F2-layer. First results show that only very large changes of the ionisation density in the E-layer influence the ionisation density in the F-region. Therefore, no synchronous growth of the foE- and foF2-frequencies 1–2 days before seismic shocks could be observed.

Description: Shallow circulation groundwater – the main type of water containing hazardous radon concentration Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1695-1703, 2011 Author(s): T. A. Przylibski The main factors affecting the value of 222 Rn activity concentration in groundwater are the emanation coefficient of reservoir rocks ( K em ), the content of parent 226 Ra in these rocks ( q ), changes in the volume and flow velocity as well as the mixing of various groundwater components in the circulation system. The highest values of 222 Rn activity concentration are recorded in groundwaters flowing towards an intake through strongly cracked reservoir rocks undergoing weathering processes. Because of these facts, waters with hazardous radon concentration levels, i.e. containing more than 100 Bq dm −3 222 Rn, could be characterised in the way that follows. They are classified as radon waters, high-radon waters and extreme-radon waters. They belong to shallow circulation systems (at less than a few dozen metres below ground level) and are contemporary infiltration waters, i.e. their underground flow time ranges from several fortnights to a few decades. Because of this, these are usually poorly mineralised waters (often below 0.2–0.5 g dm −3 ). Their resources are renewable, but also vulnerable to contamination. Waters of this type are usually drawn from private intakes, supplying water to one or at most a few households. Due to an increased risk of developing lung tumours, radon should be removed from such waters when still in the intake. To achieve this aim, appropriate legislation should be introduced in many countries.

Description: Precipitation change in Southern Italy linked to global scale oscillation indexes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1683-1694, 2011 Author(s): T. Caloiero, R. Coscarelli, E. Ferrari, and M. Mancini This study investigates precipitation variability in five regions of Southern Italy (Campania, Apulia, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily) using a homogeneous database of about 70 rain gauges with more than 50 years of observation. First, a statistical analysis was performed through the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test in order to determine rainfall the trend on both yearly and seasonal scales. Then, the relationship between the rainfall and some teleconnection pattern indexes was investigated using Spearman's test. The results show remarkable statistically significant negative trends for annual and winter aggregations in most part of the series. Moreover, a strong correlation has emerged between the teleconnection patterns and precipitation in Southern Italy, particularly in winter and on the Tyrrhenian side of the study area.

Description: Reconstruction of Atlantic historical winter coastal storms in the Spanish coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz, 1929–2005 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1715-1722, 2011 Author(s): P. Ribera, D. Gallego, C. Pena-Ortiz, L. Del Rio, T. A. Plomaritis, and J. Benavente This paper presents the reconstruction of a climatological series of winter coastal storms on the northern coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz. This series has been put together using information extracted from regional and local Spanish newspapers. It includes all the storms coming from the Atlantic sector that have been detected during the winter season, from October to March, between 1929 and 2005. In order to validate this historical storm series, it has been compared with storms series identified from quasi-observational data and using different wave heights as thresholds to decide what is to be considered as a coastal storm. Nearly 2.6 reports per year about coastal storms are published in the press which correspond to waves of 3.6 m high or more and to prevailing winds from a direction ranging between SSW and WNW. A long- term positive trend has been detected for the complete storm series. If only the instrumental period is analysed, no significant trend is detected. It is suggested that this difference might be associated with the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the occurrence of storms in this area.

Description: The neutral temperature in the ionospheric dynamo region and the ionospheric F region density during Wenchuan and Pingtung Doublet earthquakes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1759-1768, 2011 Author(s): Y. Y. Sun, K.-I. Oyama, J. Y. Liu, H. K. Jhuang, and C. Z. Cheng One of the possible candidates which modifies the ionosphere before large earthquake is electric field. We presume that the electric field associated with large earthquakes is generated in the ionosphere dynamo region (100–120 km). This paper tries to identify the evidence of the contribution of the neutral atmosphere in the dynamo region. The relationship between the critical frequency at the F2 peak (foF2) and the height profile of the neutral atmosphere temperature was studied for two large earthquakes: Wenchuan, 2008 and Pingtung Doublet, 2006. It is found that the wave amplitude of the vertical wavelength 20–30 km which is usually superposed on the height profile of the neutral atmosphere temperature enhances when the foF2 increases. The correlation between the wave amplitude and foF2 is found better along a longitudinal direction than along latitude direction.

Description: The relationship between the performance of soil conditions and damage following an earthquake: a case study in Istanbul, Turkey Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1745-1758, 2011 Author(s): G. Ç. İnce Istanbul city has experienced many strong earthquakes throughout its history and suffered extensive damage. The old Istanbul (Fatih and Eminonu districts), one of the most densely populated locations of Istanbul city, is a commercial centre and has many significant historical buildings. In this study, the data pertaining to the damage sustained by historical artifacts and structures from past earthquakes, are examined along with the soil amplification of the region, the liquefaction and slope stability risk in relation to the seismic microzonation maps which were prepared using geographic information system techniques. The relationship between soil behaviour and the damage resulting from previous earthquakes. The structural damage observed in the region was in accordance with the microzonation maps. Since the area does not have a high risk in terms of slope stability, this does not have much impact on the level of damage. However, it was found that soil amplification and partial liquefaction contributed to the damage to historical artifacts and structures.

Description: Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1769-1785, 2011 Author(s): B. Groppelli, A. Soncini, D. Bocchiola, and R. Rosso We investigate future (2045–2054) hydrological cycle of the snow fed Oglio (≈1800 km 2 ) Alpine watershed in Northern Italy. A Stochastic Space Random Cascade (SSRC) approach is used to downscale future precipitation from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base and chosen for this purpose based upon previous studies. We then downscale temperature output from the GCMs to obtain temperature fields for the area. We also consider a projected scenario based upon trends locally observed in former studies, LOC scenario. Then, we feed the downscaled fields to a minimal hydrological model to build future hydrological scenarios. We provide projected flow duration curves and selected flow descriptors, giving indication of expected modified (against control run for 1990–1999) regime of low flows and droughts and flood hazard, and thus evaluate modified peak floods regime through indexed flood. We then assess the degree of uncertainty, or spread, of the projected water resources scenarios by feeding the hydrological model with ensembles projections consistent with our deterministic (GCMs + LOC) scenarios, and we evaluate the significance of the projected flow variables against those observed in the control run. The climate scenarios from the adopted GCMs differ greatly from one another with respect to projected precipitation amount and temperature regimes, and so do the projected hydrological scenarios. A relatively good agreement is found upon prospective shrinkage and shorter duration of the seasonal snow cover due to increased temperature patterns, and upon prospective increase of hydrological losses, i.e. evapotranspiration, for the same reason. However, precipitation patterns are less consistent, because HadCM3 and PCM models project noticeably increased precipitation for 2045–2054, whereas CCSM3 provides decreased precipitation patterns therein. The LOC scenario instead displays unchanged precipitation. The ensemble simulations indicate that several projected flow variables under the considered scenarios are significantly different from their control run counterparts, and also that snow cover seems to significantly decrease in duration and depth. The proposed hydrological scenarios eventually provide a what-if analysis, giving a broad view of the possible expected impacts of climate change within the Italian Alps, necessary to trigger the discussion about future adaptation strategies.

Description: A tool for assessing the quality of the Mediterranean cyclone forecast: a numerical index Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1787-1794, 2011 Author(s): M. A. Picornell, A. Jansà, and A. Genovés Cyclones affecting the Mediterranean region, sometimes related to severe weather events, are often not well represented enough in numerical model predictions. Assessing the quality of the forecast of these cyclonic structures would be a significant advance in better knowing the goodness of the weather forecast in this region, and particularly the quality of predictions of high impact phenomena. In order to estimate the cyclone forecast uncertainty in operational models, in this work we compare two cyclone databases for the period 2006–2007: one from the operational analyses of the T799 ECMWF deterministic model; and the other from the forecasts provided by the same model in three ranges, H+12, H+24, and H+48. The skill of the model to detect cyclones and its accuracy in describing their features are assessed. An index is presented as an indicator of the quality of the prediction, derived from the frequency distribution of errors in the prediction of four characteristics of the cyclone: position, central pressure value, geostrophic circulation, and domain. Some sub-indexes are derived to verify each of the variables separately in order to analyse the most frequent sources of error. Other sub-indexes are also defined to indicate possible biases in the numerical prediction model.

Description: Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls through non-homogeneous Poissonian processes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1657-1668, 2011 Author(s): B. Sirangelo, E. Ferrari, and D. L. De Luca A stochastic model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process, characterised by a time-dependent intensity of rainfall occurrence, is employed to explain seasonal effects of daily rainfalls exceeding prefixed threshold values. The data modelling has been performed with a partition of observed daily rainfall data into a calibration period for parameter estimation and a validation period for checking on occurrence process changes. The model has been applied to a set of rain gauges located in different geographical areas of Southern Italy. The results show a good fit for time-varying intensity of rainfall occurrence process by 2-harmonic Fourier law and no statistically significant evidence of changes in the validation period for different threshold values.

Description: Regional frequency analysis of extreme storm surges along the French coast Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1627-1639, 2011 Author(s): L. Bardet, C.-M. Duluc, V. Rebour, and J. L'Her A good knowledge of extreme storm surges is necessary to ensure protection against flood. In this paper we introduce a methodology to determine time series of skew surges in France as well as a statistical approach for estimating extreme storm surges. With the aim to cope with the outlier issue in surge series, a regional frequency analysis has been carried out for the surges along the Atlantic coast and the Channel coast. This methodology is not the current approach used to estimate extreme surges in France. First results showed that the extreme events identified as outliers in at-site analyses do not appear to be outliers any more in the regional empirical distribution. Indeed the regional distribution presents a curve to the top with these extreme events that a mixed exponential distribution seems to recreate. Thus, the regional approach appears to be more reliable for some sites than at-site analyses. A fast comparison at a given site showed surge estimates with the regional approach and a mixed exponential distribution are higher than surge estimates with an at-site fitting. In the case of Brest, the 1000-yr return surge is 167 cm in height with the regional approach instead of 126 cm with an at-site analysis.

Description: Probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts on durum wheat in the Mediterranean region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1293-1302, 2011 Author(s): R. Ferrise, M. Moriondo, and M. Bindi Recently, the availability of multi-model ensemble prediction methods has permitted a shift from a scenario-based approach to a risk-based approach in assessing the effects of climate change. This provides more useful information to decision-makers who need probability estimates to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts. In this study, a probabilistic framework for evaluating the risk of durum wheat yield shortfall over the Mediterranean Basin has been exploited. An artificial neural network, trained to emulate the outputs of a process-based crop growth model, has been adopted to create yield response surfaces which are then overlaid with probabilistic projections of future temperature and precipitation changes in order to estimate probabilistic projections of future yields. The risk is calculated as the relative frequency of projected yields below a selected threshold. In contrast to previous studies, which suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration over the next few decades would outweigh the detrimental effects of the early stages of climatic warming and drying, the results of this study are of greater concern.

Description: Debris-flow activity in abandoned channels of the Manival torrent reconstructed with LiDAR and tree-ring data Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1247-1257, 2011 Author(s): J. Lopez Saez, C. Corona, M. Stoffel, A. Gotteland, F. Berger, and F. Liébault Hydrogeomorphic processes are a major threat in many parts of the Alps, where they periodically damage infrastructure, disrupt transportation corridors or even cause loss of life. Nonetheless, past torrential activity and the analysis of areas affected during particular events remain often imprecise. It was therefore the purpose of this study to reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of past debris-flow activity in abandoned channels on the forested cone of the Manival torrent (Massif de la Chartreuse, French Prealps). A Light Detecting and Ranging (LiDAR) generated Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to identify five abandoned channels and related depositional forms (lobes, lateral levees) in the proximal alluvial fan of the torrent. A total of 156 Scots pine trees ( Pinus sylvestris L.) with clear signs of debris flow events was analyzed and growth disturbances (GD) assessed, such as callus tissue, the onset of compression wood or abrupt growth suppression. In total, 375 GD were identified in the tree-ring samples, pointing to 13 debris-flow events for the period 1931–2008. While debris flows appear to be very common at Manival, they have only rarely propagated outside the main channel over the past 80 years. Furthermore, analysis of the spatial distribution of disturbed trees contributed to the identification of four patterns of debris-flow routing and led to the determination of three preferential breakout locations. Finally, the results of this study demonstrate that the temporal distribution of debris flows did not exhibit significant variations since the beginning of the 20th century.

Description: Assessment of possible damaged areas due to landslide-induced waves at a constructed reservoir using empirical approaches: Kurtun (North Turkey) Dam reservoir area Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1341-1350, 2011 Author(s): A. Akgün Landslide-induced wave in lakes or offshore is a natural hazard of significant concern throughout the world. In Turkey, several dam reservoir areas suffer from this problem, motivating for the exploration of this phenomenon. In this study, the potential for landslide-induced wave generation and the possible adverse effects of such an event were investigated for the Kurtun Dam reservoir area. This area is prone to translational debris-type landslides, and such slides represent a threat with respect to wave generation. To investigate this problem, a potential landslide was initially inspected with respect to key geometrical and index parameters, such as the internal friction angle and unit weight of the landslide material. After obtaining these data, the potential of sub-aerial landslide-induced wave characteristics such as wave height, wave run-up on the opposite slope and wave velocity were calculated using existing empirical relationships. Based on the obtained wave properties, a potential damage assessment was performed for vulnerable areas in recognition of the fact that the Kurtun Dam and Kurtun district are threatened by potential wave occurrence. According to the findings obtained from the potential damage assessment, it was determined that the Kurtun district and the Kurtun portion of the Kurtun-Gumushane highway are located within the run-up impact area. However, the Kurtun Dam was determined to be relatively safe due to the distance between the landslide area and the dam.

Description: The sensitivity of warm period precipitation forecasts to various modifications of the Kain-Fritsch Convective Parameterization scheme Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1327-1339, 2011 Author(s): N. Mazarakis, V. Kotroni, K. Lagouvardos, A. A. Argiriou, and C. J. Anderson The sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecasts to various modifications of the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme (CPS) is examined for twenty selected cases characterized by intense convective activity and widespread precipitation over Greece, during the warm period of 2005–2007. The study is conducted using the MM5 model with a two nested domains strategy, with horizontal grid increments of 24 and 8 km, respectively. Five modifications to the KF CPS, each designed to test the sensitivity of the model to the convective scheme formulation, are discussed. The modifications include: (i) the maximization of the convective scheme precipitation efficiency, (ii) the change of the convective time step, (iii) the forcing of the convective scheme to produce more/less cloud material, (iv) changes to the trigger function and (v) the alteration of the vertical profile of updraft mass flux detrainment. The simulated precipitation from the 8-km grid is verified against raingauge measurements. Although skill scores vary widely among the cases and the precipitation thresholds, model results using the modifications of the convective scheme show improvements in 6-h precipitation totals compared to simulations generated using the unmodified convective scheme. In general, forcing the model to produce less cloud material improves the precipitation forecast for the moderate and high precipitation amounts, while the same modification and the change of the convective time step to 1 min has the same result for the high precipitation thresholds. The increase of convective time step to 15 min, the maximization of precipitation efficiency and the changes to the trigger function give similar results for medium and high precipitation. On the other hand, the forecast for the light precipitation is improved by forcing the model to produce more cloud material as well as by the alteration of the vertical profile of updraft mass flux detrainment.

Description: Future changes in European winter storm losses and extreme wind speeds inferred from GCM and RCM multi-model simulations Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1351-1370, 2011 Author(s): M. G. Donat, G. C. Leckebusch, S. Wild, and U. Ulbrich Extreme wind speeds and related storm loss potential in Europe have been investigated using multi-model simulations from global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate models. Potential future changes due to anthropogenic climate change have been analysed from these simulations following the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The large number of available simulations allows an estimation of the robustness of detected future changes. All the climate models reproduced the observed spatial patterns of wind speeds, although some models displayed systematic biases. A storm loss model was applied to the GCM and RCM simulated wind speeds, resulting in realistic mean loss amounts calculated from 20th century climate simulations, although the inter-annual variability of losses is generally underestimated. In future climate simulations, enhanced extreme wind speeds were found over northern parts of Central and Western Europe in most simulations and in the ensemble mean (up to 5%). As a consequence, the loss potential is also higher in these regions, particularly in Central Europe. Conversely, a decrease in extreme wind speeds was found in Southern Europe, as was an associated reduction in loss potential. There was considerable spread in the projected changes of individual ensemble members, with some indicating an opposite signature to the ensemble mean. Downscaling of the large-scale simulations with RCMs has been shown to be an important source of uncertainty. Even RCMs with identical boundary forcings can show a wide range of potential changes. The robustness of the projected changes was estimated using two different measures. First, the inter-model standard deviation was calculated; however, it is sensitive to outliers and thus displayed large uncertainty ranges. Second, a multi-model combinatorics approach considered all possible sub-ensembles from GCMs and RCMs, hence taking into account the arbitrariness of model selection for multi-model studies. Based on all available GCM and RCM simulations, for example, a 25% mean increase in risk of loss for Germany has been estimated for the end of the 21st century, with a 90% confidence range of +15 to +35%.

Description: Evidence of a previously unrecorded local tsunami, 13 April 2010, Cook Islands: implications for Pacific Island countries Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1371-1379, 2011 Author(s): J. Goff Tsunami hazard assessments for Pacific Islands Countries (PICs) tend to focus on subduction zone sources. It is generally recognised that while volcanic-related tsunamigenic sources exist, they are probably only of minor relevance to the overall hazardscape of the Pacific. This paper outlines the evidence for a previously unrecorded local tsunami that struck the uninhabited south coast of Mangaia, Cook Islands, on 13 April 2010. The tsunami had a maximum inundation of 100 m inland and a runup of 12 m a.s.l. This event was most probably caused by a small submarine slope failure, the most recent of an unknown number of previous inundations. Since most PICs have a volcanic origin, it is suggested that current perceptions about the local and regional significance of such events is inaccurate. A review of volcanic-related tsunamigenic sources throughout the Pacific reveals a wealth of data concerning submarine slope failures in particular and a more general background of active volcanism. These sources are as relevant to PICs close to or far away from subduction zones. As populations grow and the coastlines of many PICs and those on the edge of the Pacific Ocean become increasing occupied, the likelihood for loss of life from these events increases.

Description: Active faults crossing trunk pipeline routes: some important steps to avoid disaster Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1433-1436, 2011 Author(s): V. M. Besstrashnov and A. L. Strom Assessment of seismic strong motion hazard produced by earthquakes originating within causative fault zones allows rather low accuracy of localisation of these structures that can be provided by indirect evidence of fault activity. In contrast, the relevant accuracy of localisation and characterisation of active faults, capable of surface rupturing, can be achieved solely by the use of direct evidence of fault activity. This differentiation requires strict definition of what can be classified as "active fault" and the normalisation of methods used for identification and localisation of active faults crossing oil and natural gas trunk pipelines.

Description: Regional-scale analysis of lake outburst hazards in the southwestern Pamir, Tajikistan, based on remote sensing and GIS Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1447-1462, 2011 Author(s): M. Mergili and J. F. Schneider This paper presents an analysis of the hazards emanating from the sudden drainage of alpine lakes in South-Western Tajik Pamir. In the last 40 yr, several new lakes have formed in the front of retreating glacier tongues, and existing lakes have grown. Other lakes are dammed by landslide deposits or older moraines. In 2002, sudden drainage of a glacial lake in the area triggered a catastrophic debris flow. Building on existing approaches, a rating scheme was devised allowing quick, regional-scale identification of potentially hazardous lakes and possible impact areas. This approach relies on GIS, remote sensing and empirical modelling, largely based on medium-resolution international datasets. Out of the 428 lakes mapped in the area, 6 were rated very hazardous and 34 hazardous. This classification was used for the selection of lakes requiring in-depth investigation. Selected cases are presented and discussed in order to understand the potentials and limitations of the approach used. Such an understanding is essential for the appropriate application of the methodology for risk mitigation purposes.

Description: Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1529-1544, 2011 Author(s): B. Vincendon, V. Ducrocq, O. Nuissier, and B. Vié Mediterranean intense weather events often lead to devastating flash-floods. Extending the forecasting lead times further than the watershed response times, implies the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) to drive hydrological models. However, the nature of the precipitating events and the temporal and spatial scales of the watershed response make them difficult to forecast, even using a high-resolution convection-permitting NWP deterministic forecasting. This study proposes a new method to sample the uncertainties of high-resolution NWP precipitation forecasts in order to quantify the predictability of the streamflow forecasts. We have developed a perturbation method based on convection-permitting NWP-model error statistics. It produces short-term precipitation ensemble forecasts from single-value meteorological forecasts. These rainfall ensemble forecasts are then fed into a hydrological model dedicated to flash-flood forecasting to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The verification on two flash-flood events shows that this forecasting ensemble performs better than the deterministic forecast. The performance of the precipitation perturbation method has also been found to be broadly as good as that obtained using a state-of-the-art research convection-permitting NWP ensemble, while requiring less computing time.

Description: Geomorphological and geochemical characterization of the 11 August 2008 mud volcano eruption at S. Barbara village (Sicily, Italy) and its possible relationship with seismic activity Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1545-1557, 2011 Author(s): P. Madonia, F. Grassa, M. Cangemi, and C. Musumeci On 11 August 2008 a paroxysmal eruption occurred at Santa Barbara mud volcano (MV), located close to Caltanissetta, one of the most densely populated cities of Sicily (Italy). An associated minor event took place on August 2009. Both the events caused severe damage to civil infrastructures located within a range of about 2 km from the eruptive vent. Geomorphological, geochemical, and seismological investigations were carried out for framing the events in the appropriate geodynamic context. Geomorphological surveys recognized, in the immediate surrounding of the main emission point, two different families of processes and landforms: (i) ground deformations and (ii) changes in morphology and number of the fluid emitting vents. These processes were associated to a wider network of fractures, seemingly generated by the shock wave produced by the gas blast that occurred at the main paroxysm. Geochemical characterization allowed an estimation of the source of the fluids, or at least their last standing, at about 3 km depth. Finally, the close time relationships observed between anomalous increments of seismic activity and the two main paroxysmal events accounted for a possible common trigger for both the phenomena, even with different timing due to the very different initial conditions and characteristics of the two processes, i.e. seismogenesis and gas overloading.

Description: Ionospheric variations before some large earthquakes over Sumatra Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 597-611, 2011 Author(s): A. M. Hasbi, M. A. Mohd Ali, and N. Misran The paper investigates the ionospheric variations before some large earthquakes that occurred during 2004–2007 in Sumatra using GPS and CHAMP data. The TEC shows the occurrence of positive and negative anomalies detected within a few hours to 6 days before the earthquakes. These anomalies mostly occur during the daytime hours between 4 and 17 LT. The TEC anomalies are mostly consistent with the CHAMP satellite electron density data. The electron density analysis over the 28 March 2005 earthquake epicenter shows that an equatorial anomaly modification took place a few days before the event. The modification took shape in the form of crest amplification during the daytime. The comparison between the TEC and electron density measurements during very quiet geomagnetic conditions is shown to be a useful indicator of a forthcoming earthquake.

Description: Critical analysis of the electrostatic turbulence enhancements observed by DEMETER over the Sichuan region during the earthquake preparation Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 561-570, 2011 Author(s): T. Onishi, J.-J. Berthelier, and M. Kamogawa In this paper, we report initial results from a detailed statistical study of the plasma waves observed by the DEMETER satellite over the Sichuan region during a period of 20 days encompassing the large earthquake of magnitude M =7.9 that occurred on 12 May 2008. The main objective of this paper is to present a statistical method to process and analyze plasma wave data and assist in detecting possible earthquake precursors among larger irregular disturbances arising from the natural variability of the ionized environment of the Earth. This method, presently used for dayside observations, involves two stages. First, VLF wave spectra are processed to recognize the various types of plasma waves usually observed at mid and low latitudes and derive a reduced number of parameters that fully characterize these emissions and may be conveniently used for a detailed statistical study. In a second stage, we perform a statistical analysis of the results by taking into account two "reference zones" displaced respectively 30 ° eastward and westward from the "epicentre zone". Plasma and wave disturbances possibly induced by earthquakes in preparation are likely to maximize close to the "epicentre zone", while natural disturbances associated, in particular, with the varying magnetic activity are rather uniform over a wider longitude sector, thus enabling the use of observations over the reference zones as a base line. The initial results of this study show a deviation of the power spectrum of electrostatic turbulence in the epicentre zone about 6 days prior to the earthquake but no significant anomalous variations can be observed on other characteristics of plasma waves. From the analysis of the data over the two reference~zones and using recently produced sector magnetic activity indices, we conclude that the enhancement of electrostatic turbulence is associated with magnetospheric processes rather than with pre-seismic activity.

Description: Evolution of extreme Total Water Levels along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 613-625, 2011 Author(s): D. F. Rasilla Álvarez and J. C. García Codron This paper assesses the evolution of storminess along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula through the calculation of extreme (1%) Total Water Levels (eTWL) on both observed (tide gauge and buoy data) and hindcasted (SIMAR-44) data. Those events were first identified and then characterized in terms of oceanographic parameters and atmospheric circulation features. Additionally, an analysis of the long-term trends in both types of data was performed. Most of the events correspond to a rough wave climate and moderate storm surges, linked to extratropical disturbances following a northern track. While local atmospheric conditions seem to be evolving towards lesser storminess, their impact has been balanced by the favorable exposure of the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula to the increasing frequency and strength of distant disturbances crossing the North Atlantic. This evolution is also correctly reproduced by the simulated long-term evolution of the forcing component (meteorological sea level residuals and wave run up) of the Total Water Level values calculated from the SIMAR 44 database, since sea level residuals have been experiencing a reduction while waves are arriving with longer periods. Finally, the addition of the rate of relative sea level trend to the temporal evolution of the atmospheric forcing component of the Total Water Level values is enough to simulate more frequent and persistent eTWL.

Description: On the acoustic model of lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling before earthquakes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1011-1017, 2011 Author(s): C.-V. Meister, B. Mayer, P. Dziendziel, F. Fülbert, D. H. H. Hoffmann, and V. A. Liperovsky In this work, the many-fluid magnetohydrodynamic theory is applied to describe the modification of the electromagnetic field of the ionospheric E-layer by acoustic-type waves. There, altitudinal profiles of the electromagnetic field and the plasma parameters of the atmosphere and ionosphere are taken into account. It is concluded that at E-region altitudes above seismo-active regions, magnetohydrodynamic waves as Alfvén and magnetoacoustic ones might change their amplitude and direction of propagation. Waves of the Farley-Buneman type might also be excited a few days before very strong earthquakes. The collisions between the neutral and charged particles of the E-layer also cause diffusion and heating processes. Thus, changes of the characteristic foE-frequency might be obtained.

Description: Future water availability in selected European catchments: a probabilistic assessment of seasonal flows under the IPCC A1B emission scenario using response surfaces Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2163-2171, 2011 Author(s): M. Weiß A grid-based water balance model is used to quantify exceedance probabilities of high and low stream flow thresholds, and analyse their progression over the course of the 21st century. The analysis is carried out for 18 European river basins using the response surface method in combination with probabilistic projections of climate change, conditional to the IPCC A1B emission scenario up to 2100. According to this study, Nordic basins have the highest probability of high flow threshold violation in Europe, while in Central and Southern European basins, the probability of low flow threshold violation is highest. While the high flow violation occurs mostly during winter, with other seasons being likewise probable, low flow violation only occurs in summer. Some basins are facing an increased stream flow amplitude, having high probabilities for both, high flow and low flow violations.

Description: Hazard assessment investigations due to recent changes in Triftgletscher, Bernese Alps, Switzerland Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2149-2162, 2011 Author(s): P. Dalban Canassy, A. Bauder, M. Dost, R. Fäh, M. Funk, S. Margreth, B. Müller, and S. Sugiyama The details and the consequences of the recent retreat of Triftgletscher (Gadmertal, Bernese Alps, Switzerland) have been investigated. Geodetic volume changes indicate a strong decrease since 1929 while the position of the terminus remained practically unchanged until 1990. The role played by calving in the tongue retreat running from 2000 to 2006 is confirmed by means of a mass balance model including a calving criterion. Results show that without calving, it would have taken two years longer for the lake to form than has been observed. The consequences of the ensuing tongue destabilization are surveyed, first with an ice avalanche model and second with a hydraulic study of the potential impulse wave triggered by the impact of the falling ice mass in the lake. Results point out that ice avalanches with volumes greater that 1 × 10 6 m 3 will flow into the lake and that in the worst scenario, a discharge of 400 m 3 s −1 is expected to reach the endangered area in Gadmertal 11 min after the break-off. In order to detect surface motion precursors to such ice avalanches, a photographic monitoring system was installed. The results indicate seasonal variations with peak velocity in summer and no significant change during the other months. Spectacular velocity increases were not observed so far.

Description: Preface Results of the open session on "Documentation and monitoring of landslides and debris flows" for mathematical modelling and design of mitigation measures, held at the EGU General Assembly 2009 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1583-1588, 2011 Author(s): L. Franzi, D. Giordan, M. Arattano, P. Allasia, and M. Arai The papers that are here presented and summarised represent the recent scientific contributions of some authors coming from different countries and working in the fields of monitoring, modelling, mapping and design of mitigation measures against mass movements. The authors had the opportunity to present their recent advancements, discuss each other needs and set forth future research requirements during the 2009 EGU General Assembly, so that their scientific contributions can be considered the result of the debates and exchanges that were set among scientists and researchers, either personally or during the review phase since that date. In this resume, the scientific papers of the special issue are divided according to different thematic areas and summarised. The most innovative scientific approaches proposed in the special issue, regarding the monitoring methodologies, simulation techniques and laboratory equipment are described and summarised. The obtained results are very promising to keep on future research at a very satisfactory level.

Description: Lightning-based propagation of convective rain fields Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1571-1581, 2011 Author(s): S. Dietrich, D. Casella, F. Di Paola, M. Formenton, A. Mugnai, and P. Sanò This paper describes a new multi-sensor approach for continuously monitoring convective rain cells. It exploits lightning data from surface networks to propagate rain fields estimated from multi-frequency brightness temperature measurements taken by the AMSU/MHS microwave radiometers onboard NOAA/EUMETSAT low Earth orbiting operational satellites. Specifically, the method allows inferring the development (movement, morphology and intensity) of convective rain cells from the spatial and temporal distribution of lightning strokes following any observation by a satellite-borne microwave radiometer. Obviously, this is particularly attractive for real-time operational purposes, due to the sporadic nature of the low Earth orbiting satellite measurements and the continuous availability of ground-based lightning measurements – as is the case in most of the Mediterranean region. A preliminary assessment of the lightning-based rainfall propagation algorithm has been successfully made by using two pairs of consecutive AMSU observations, in conjunction with lightning measurements from the ZEUS network, for two convective events. Specifically, we show that the evolving rain fields, which are estimated by applying the algorithm to the satellite-based rainfall estimates for the first AMSU overpass, show an overall agreement with the satellite-based rainfall estimates for the second AMSU overpass.

Description: Ionospheric anomaly due to seismic activities-III: correlation between night time VLF amplitude fluctuations and effective magnitudes of earthquakes in Indian sub-continent Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2699-2704, 2011 Author(s): S. Ray, S. K. Chakrabarti, S. K. Mondal, and S. Sasmal We present the results of an analysis of year-long (2007) monitoring of night time data of the VLF signal amplitude from the Indian Navy station VTX at 18.2 kHz, received by the Indian Centre for Space Physics, Kolkata. We analyzed this data to find out the correlation, if any, between night time amplitude fluctuation and seismic events. We found, analyzing individual cases (with magnitudes 〉5) as well as statistical analysis (of all the events with effective magnitudes greater than 3.5), that night time fluctuation of the signal amplitude has the highest probability to be beyond the 2σ level about three days prior to seismic events. Thus, the night time fluctuation could be considered as a precursor to enhanced seismic activities.

Description: The anomalous high temperatures of November 2010 over Greece: meteorological and climatological aspects Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2705-2714, 2011 Author(s): K. Tolika, I. Pytharoulis, and P. Maheras This paper presents an analysis of the exceptionally high maximum ( T max ) and minimum ( T min ) temperatures which occurred during November 2010 and affected the entire Greek region. This severe "warm cold-season spell" was unusual because of its prolonged duration and intensity for the entire month and particularly the maximum temperature anomalies, which in comparison with the 1958–2000 climatological average, exceeded 5 °C at several stations. Comparing the observed record with future projections from three regional climate models revealed that T max and T min , on several days in November 2010, exceeded the 90th percentile of the simulated data. An examination of the atmospheric – synoptic conditions during this period showed that the anomalous high temperatures could probably be related to the negative phase of the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMP), with an intense pole of negative anomalies located over the British Isles, and to the east, a second pole of positive anomalies, centred over the Caspian Sea. Finally, an attempt is made to further investigate the mechanisms responsible for this phenomenon, for example, the thermal forcing in the tropics (Niño 3 or Niño 3.4).

Description: A nested-grid Boussinesq-type approach to modelling dispersive propagation and runup of landslide-generated tsunamis Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2677-2697, 2011 Author(s): H. Zhou, C. W. Moore, Y. Wei, and V. V. Titov A tsunami generated by large-volume landslide can propagate across the ocean and flood communities around the basin. The evolution of landslide-generated tsunamis is affected by the effects of frequency dispersion and involves processes of different temporal and spacial scales. In this paper, we develop a numerical approach employing the weakly nonlinear and fully nonlinear Boussinesq-type theories and nested computational grids. The propagation in a large domain is simulated with the weakly nonlinear model in a geographical reference frame. The nearshore wave evolution and runup are computed with the fully nonlinear model. Nested grids are employed to zoom simulations from larger to smaller domains at successively increasing resolutions. The models and the nesting scheme are validated for theoretical analysis, laboratory experiments and a historical tsunami event. By applying this approach, we also investigate the potential tsunami impact on the US east coast due to the possible landslide on La Palma Island. The scenario employed in this study represents an event of extremely low probability.

Description: Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain) using extreme value theory Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2741-2753, 2011 Author(s): R. Sobradelo, J. Martí, A. T. Mendoza-Rosas, and G. Gómez The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 yr, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. This is done in three steps: First, we analyze the historical eruptive series to assess independence and homogeneity of the process. Second, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Third, we analyze the non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as the intensity function.

Description: Proposal of a Spatial Decision Support System architecture to estimate the consequences and costs of small meteorites impacts Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3013-3021, 2011 Author(s): E. Garbolino and P. Michel On a frequency, depending on their size, small celestial bodies enter into the Earth atmosphere and collide with our planet. On a daily basis, the size is likely to be about 20 cm, while for monthly events the largest it may be is about 1 m. The last significant witnessed event occurred in 1908 in the Siberian area of the Tunguska. The forest was devastated over an area of 2000 km 2 . According to recent estimates, this kind of event could occur with a frequency of one per hundred to thousand years. Since the last century, the demography and the urbanisation have significantly increased. Although the probability that such an event occurs over a populated area remains small, if this happened, it could cause significant damages (industrial, shopping centres, recreational places, etc.). From the analysis of the data on meteorites that have impacted the Earth, of the orbital and size properties of small threatening bodies as well as their potential impact outcome, this paper proposes a methodology to estimate the damage resulting from the impact of objects of given sizes. The considered sizes are up to the maximum threshold for local damages (less than a hundred metres in diameter) on some given territory. This approach is based on an initial definition phase of collision scenarios. Then, a second phase consisting of the accurate modelling of the territory, taking into account the land-use, the spatial distribution of the populations and goods, and the characterisation of the biophysical vulnerability of the stakes using thresholds of dangerous phenomena (overpressures). The third phase is related to the impact simulation on the territory, the estimation of the stakes potentially exposed and the costs of the destruction. The aim of this paper is to make a demonstration of principle, using as a study case the city of Nice that benefits from a complete database of infrastructures.

Description: Corrigendum to "Tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (1950–2009)", published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1875–1883, 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3023-3023, 2011 Author(s): M. Gayà, M.-C. Llasat, and J. Arús No abstract available.

Description: Evaluating sources of uncertainty in modelling the impact of probabilistic climate change on sub-arctic palsa mires Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2981-2995, 2011 Author(s): S. Fronzek, T. R. Carter, and M. Luoto We present an analysis of different sources of impact model uncertainty and combine this with probabilistic projections of climate change. Climatic envelope models describing the spatial distribution of palsa mires (mire complexes with permafrost peat hummocks) in northern Fennoscandia were calibrated for three baseline periods, eight state-of-the-art modelling techniques and 25 versions sampling the parameter uncertainty of each technique – a total of 600 models. The sensitivity of these models to changes in temperature and precipitation was analysed to construct impact response surfaces. These were used to assess the behaviour of models when extrapolated into changed climate conditions, so that new criteria, in addition to conventional model evaluation statistics, could be defined for determining model reliability. Impact response surfaces were also combined with climate change projections to estimate the risk of areas suitable for palsas disappearing during the 21st century. Structural differences in impact models appeared to be a major source of uncertainty, with 60% of the models giving implausible projections. Generalized additive modelling (GAM) was judged to be the most reliable technique for model extrapolation. Using GAM, it was estimated as very likely (〉90% probability) that the area suitable for palsas is reduced to less than half the baseline area by the period 2030–2049 and as likely (〉66% probability) that the entire area becomes unsuitable by 2080–2099 (A1B emission scenario). The risk of total loss of palsa area was reduced for a mitigation scenario under which global warming was constrained to below 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate, although it too implied a considerable reduction in area suitable for palsas.

Description: A geotechnical and GIS based method for evaluating risk exposition along coastal cliff environments: a case study of the chalk cliffs of southern England Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2997-3011, 2011 Author(s): A. Stavrou, J. A. Lawrence, R. N. Mortimore, and W. Murphy The present work has established a methodology that allows the user to determine areas susceptible to shoreline recession and cliff instability. This methodology includes the development of a qualitative loss estimation system which utilizes geotechnical field mapping observations and shoreline retreat predictions to estimate the exposition of critical infrastructure to hazards posed by cliff collapse and retreat. The technique identifies hazardous areas along coastal cliff environments. The assessment was undertaken along the cliff section between Brighton Marina and Portobello, East Sussex, UK. The cliff line was divided into 22 sections according to the cliff's geology. Each of these sections was mapped and described with respect to the lithology and possible failures that could occur. Historical shoreline recession analysis was used for the prediction of future shoreline positions. The prediction of future shorelines was performed by using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System, extension of ESRI's ArcView 9.x. The analysis was based on historical maps and aerial photographs dating from 1873 to 2005. The long term average cliff recession rates clearly show that cliff retreat has declined through time due to the presence of coast protection and cliff stability measures. Although these measures have delayed cliff recession to a great extent, they have not eliminated it.

Description: Using online databases for landslide susceptibility assessment: an example from the Veneto Region (northeastern Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1915-1925, 2011 Author(s): M. Floris, M. Iafelice, C. Squarzoni, L. Zorzi, A. De Agostini, and R. Genevois In this paper, spatial data available in the Italian portals was used to evaluate the landslide susceptibility of the Euganean Hills Regional Park, located SW of Padua (northeastern Italy). Quality, applicability and possible analysis scales of the online data were investigated. After a brief overview on the WebGIS portals around the world, their contents and tools for natural risk analyses, a susceptibility analysis of the study area was carried out using a simple probabilistic approach that compared landslide distribution and influencing factors. The input factors used in the analysis depended on available data and included landslides, morphometric data (elevation, slope, curvature, profile and plan Curvature) and non-morphometric data (land use, distance to roads and distance to rivers). Great attention was paid to the pre-processing step, in particular the re-classification of continuous data that was performed following objective, geologic and geomorphologic criteria. The results of the study show that the simple probabilistic approach used for the susceptibility evaluation showed quite good accuracy and precision (repeatability). However, heuristic, statistical or deterministic methods could be applied to the online data to improve the prediction. The data available online for the Italian territory allows susceptibility assessment at medium and large scales. Morphometric factors, such as elevation and slope angle, are important because they implicitly include information that is not available, such as lithologic and structural data. The main drawback of the Italian online databases is the lack of information on the frequency of landslides; thus, a complete hazard analysis is not possible. Despite the good results achieved to date, collection and sharing of data on natural risks must be improved in Italy and around the world. The creation of spatial data infrastructure and more WebGIS portals is desirable.

Description: Towards a real-time susceptibility assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides on a regional scale Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1927-1947, 2011 Author(s): L. Montrasio, R. Valentino, and G. L. Losi In the framework of landslide risk management, it appears relevant to assess, both in space and in time, the triggering of rainfall-induced shallow landslides, in order to prevent damages due to these kind of disasters. In this context, the use of real-time landslide early warning systems has been attracting more and more attention from the scientific community. This paper deals with the application, on a regional scale, of two physically-based stability models: SLIP (Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction) and TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability analysis). A back analysis of some recent case-histories of soil slips which occurred in the territory of the central Emilian Apennine, Emilia Romagna Region (Northern Italy) is carried out and the main results are shown. The study area is described from geological and climatic viewpoints. The acquisition of geospatial information regarding the topography, the soil properties and the local landslide inventory is also explained. The paper outlines the main features of the SLIP model and the basic assumptions of TRIGRS. Particular attention is devoted to the discussion of the input data, which have been stored and managed through a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. Results of the SLIP model on a regional scale, over a one year time interval, are finally presented. The results predicted by the SLIP model are analysed both in terms of safety factor ( F s ) maps, corresponding to particular rainfall events, and in terms of time-varying percentage of unstable areas over the considered time interval. The paper compares observed landslide localizations with those predicted by the SLIP model. A further quantitative comparison between SLIP and TRIGRS, both applied to the most important event occurred during the analysed period, is presented. The limits of the SLIP model, mainly due to some restrictions of simplifying the physically based relationships, are analysed in detail. Although an improvement, in terms of spatial accuracy, is needed, thanks to the fast calculation and the satisfactory temporal prediction of landslides, the SLIP model applied on the study area shows certain potential as a landslides forecasting tool on a regional scale.

Description: Fluoride in ash leachates: environmental implications at Popocatépetl volcano, central Mexico Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1949-1956, 2011 Author(s): M. A. Armienta, S. De la Cruz-Reyna, O. Cruz, N. Ceniceros, A. Aguayo, and M. Marin Ash emitted by volcanic eruptions, even of moderate magnitude, may affect the environment and the health of humans and animals through different mechanisms at distances significantly larger than those indicated in the volcanic hazard maps. One such mechanism is the high capacity of ash to transport toxic volatiles like fluoride, as soluble condensates on the particles' surface. The mobilization and hazards related to volcanic fluoride are discussed based on the data obtained during the recent activity of Popocatépetl volcano in Central Mexico.

Description: Electric field and infrared radiation in the troposphere before earthquakes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3125-3133, 2011 Author(s): V. A. Liperovsky, C.-V. Meister, V. V. Mikhailin, V. V. Bogdanov, P. M. Umarkhodgaev, and E. V. Liperovskaya Some years ago, a model of the generation of local electric fields in the atmosphere a few days before earthquakes and up to a few days after the seismic shock was proposed. In the model, the generation of the electric fields occurs because of an increased ionisation intensity of the atmosphere in the presence of aerosols. The generation of the electric field is the result of the fact that the larger aerosols, which are mainly negatively charged, have a larger velocity of gravitational precipitation than the smaller, which are mainly positively charged aerosols. The ionisation in such atmospheric regions is caused by radon, the concentration of which increases in earthquake preparation regions. The formation of mosaic-likely distributed areas of electric fields with intensities of 3 × 10 2 – 10 5 Vm −1 and, on the other hand, large areas with increased electrical conductivity cause a series of physical effects, e.g. the occurrence of infrared emissions with a specific spectrum, which may be studied using earth-based, atmospheric and satellite observations. In the present paper, the model of the generation of local electric fields is further developed, improving the description of the force balance on the aerosols in the atmosphere. A recently proposed laboratory experiment is briefly discussed, which is carried out to prove the theoretically predicted intensification of infrared emissions some hours-days before earthquakes. Besides the experiment described, it will be operated on Kamchatka in the near future to scan mosaic-likely distributed regions of electric fields in the atmosphere during earthquake preparation times.

Description: Examination of three practical run-up models for assessing tsunami impact on highly populated areas Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3107-3123, 2011 Author(s): A. Muhari, F. Imamura, S. Koshimura, and J. Post This paper describes the examination of three practical tsunami run-up models that can be used to assess the tsunami impact on human beings in densely populated areas. The first of the examined models applies a uniform bottom roughness coefficient throughout the study area. The second uses a very detailed topographic data set that includes the building height information integrated on a Digital Elevation Model (DEM); and the third model utilizes different bottom roughness coefficients, depending on the type of land use and on the percentage of building occupancy on each grid cell. These models were compared with each other by taking the one with the most detailed topographic data (which is the second) as reference. The analysis was performed with the aim of identifying how specific features of high resolution topographic data can influence the tsunami run-up characteristics. Further, we promote a method to be used when very detailed topographic data is unavailable and discuss the related limitations. To this purpose we demonstrate that the effect of buildings on the tsunami flow can be well modeled by using an equivalent roughness coefficient if the topographic data has no information of building height. The results from the models have been utilized to quantify the tsunami impact by using the tsunami casualty algorithm. The models have been applied in Padang city, Indonesia, which is one of the areas with the highest potential of tsunami risk in the world.

Description: Assessment of Arias Intensity of historical earthquakes using modified Mercalli intensities and artificial neural networks Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3097-3105, 2011 Author(s): G-A. Tselentis This paper presents the development of a non-parametric forecast model based on artificial neural networks for the direct assessment of Arias Intensity corresponding to a historic earthquake using seismic intensity data. The neural models allow complex and nonlinear behaviour to be tracked. Application of this methodology on earthquakes with known instrumental data from Greece, showed that the artificial neural network forecast model have excellent data synthesis capability.

Description: Comments on the generation mechanism of Seismic Electric Signals Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3093-3096, 2011 Author(s): E. Dologlou Recent laboratory measurements on rocks under varying pressure lead to results which strengthen a model suggested by the author for the explanation of the power law relation that interconnects the lead time of Seismic Electric Signals and earthquake stress drop. In addition, recent applications of a thermodynamic model that interrelates the defect parameters in materials of geophysical interest and their bulk properties open a new window to further advance the aforementioned explanation.

Description: OntoFire: an ontology-based geo-portal for wildfires Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3157-3170, 2011 Author(s): K. Kalabokidis, N. Athanasis, and M. Vaitis With the proliferation of the geospatial technologies on the Internet, the role of geo-portals (i.e. gateways to Spatial Data Infrastructures) in the area of wildfires management emerges. However, keyword-based techniques often frustrate users when looking for data of interest in geo-portal environments, while little attention has been paid to shift from the conventional keyword-based to navigation-based mechanisms. The presented OntoFire system is an ontology-based geo-portal about wildfires. Through the proposed navigation mechanisms, the relationships between the data can be discovered, which would otherwise not be possible when using conventional querying techniques alone. End users can use the browsing interface to find resources of interest by using the navigation mechanisms provided. Data providers can use the publishing interface to submit new metadata, modify metadata or removing metadata in/from the catalogue. The proposed approach can improve the discovery of valuable information that is necessary to set priorities for disaster mitigation and prevention strategies. OntoFire aspires to be a focal point of integration and management of a very large amount of information, contributing in this way to the dissemination of knowledge and to the preparedness of the operational stakeholders.

Description: Anomalous pre-seismic behavior of the electromagnetic normalized functions related to the intermediate depth earthquakes occurred in Vrancea zone, Romania Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3151-3156, 2011 Author(s): D. Stanica and D. A. Stanica In this paper the electromagnetic normalized functions (ENF), carried out in ULF band, have been analyzed in correlation with intermediate depth seismic events occurring in Vrancea zone. To confirm the relationship between anomalous, pre-seismic behavior and an imminent earthquake, a methodology based on the temporal invariability criterion of ENF for a 2-D structure, in non-geodynamic conditions, has been used. The electromagnetic data were collected at the Geodynamic Observatory Provita de Sus (GOPS), placed on the Carpathian electrical conductivity anomaly where the epicentral distance is about 100 km, and the National Geophysical Observatory Surlari (NGOS) taken as a reference and located 140 km from the Vrancea zone. The daily mean distributions of the ENF over a span of several months in 2009, carried out at GOPS, exhibit significant enhancements from the normal trend before all the earthquakes with magnitudes higher than 4. Two correlations between the magnitudes of seismic events and Bzn have to be highlighted: (i) an earthquake of M ≥ 4 is expected to occur when Bzn ≥ 1.846; (ii) meanwhile, the anomalous behaviour of Bzn ≥ 1.851 may be use as pre- seismic value for an earthquake of M ≥ 5. The lead time is closed on 7–15 days before earthquakes occurrence.

Description: Impact of ASAR soil moisture data on the MM5 precipitation forecast for the Tanaro flood event of April 2009 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3135-3149, 2011 Author(s): G. Panegrossi, R. Ferretti, L. Pulvirenti, and N. Pierdicca The representation of land-atmosphere interactions in weather forecast models has a strong impact on the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and, in turn, on the forecast. Soil moisture is one of the key variables in land surface modelling, and an inadequate initial soil moisture field can introduce major biases in the surface heat and moisture fluxes and have a long-lasting effect on the model behaviour. Detecting the variability of soil characteristics at small scales is particularly important in mesoscale models because of the continued increase of their spatial resolution. In this paper, the high resolution soil moisture field derived from ENVISAT/ASAR observations is used to derive the soil moisture initial condition for the MM5 simulation of the Tanaro flood event of April 2009. The ASAR-derived soil moisture field shows significantly drier conditions compared to the ECMWF analysis. The impact of soil moisture on the forecast has been evaluated in terms of predicted precipitation and rain gauge data available for this event have been used as ground truth. The use of the drier, highly resolved soil moisture content (SMC) shows a significant impact on the precipitation forecast, particularly evident during the early phase of the event. The timing of the onset of the precipitation, as well as the intensity of rainfall and the location of rain/no rain areas, are better predicted. The overall accuracy of the forecast using ASAR SMC data is significantly increased during the first 30 h of simulation. The impact of initial SMC on the precipitation has been related to the change in the water vapour field in the PBL prior to the onset of the precipitation, due to surface evaporation. This study represents a first attempt to establish whether high resolution SAR-based SMC data might be useful for operational use, in anticipation of the launch of the Sentinel-1 satellite.

Description: Estimation of loss caused by earthquakes and secondary technological hazards Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3025-3033, 2011 Author(s): N. I. Frolova, V. I. Larionov, S. P. Suschev, and J. Bonnin Assessment of expected loss and damage caused by earthquakes and secondary technological accidents are of primary importance for the development and implementation of preventive measure plans, as well as for emergency management just after the disaster. The paper addresses the procedures for estimations of loss caused by strong events and secondary hazards with information technology application. Examples of individual seismic risk zoning at Russian federal and regional levels are given, as well as that of scenario earthquakes consequences estimation, taking into account secondary technological hazards.

Description: Brief communication "Tree impacts into a flexible rockfall protection system" Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3047-3051, 2011 Author(s): A. Volkwein, A. Vogel, W. Gerber, and A. Roth In hilly terrain, on account of both timber exploitation as well as severe storms, fallen tree trunks can begin to slide, thus constituting a source of danger for people and infrastructure. Any flexible rockfall protection system that is installed under such conditions should also be designed to withstand these unique loading conditions (falling trees). A series of tests was successfully conducted with free-falling trunks. The tests showed the behaviour of a rockfall protection system, also in comparison to similar rockfall events. Numerical simulations were performed to check performance against the field tests. It could be shown that barriers can be tested and designed for tree impacts according to similar rockfall impacts.

Description: Application of simulation technique on debris flow hazard zone delineation: a case study in the Daniao tribe, Eastern Taiwan Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3053-3062, 2011 Author(s): M. P. Tsai, Y. C. Hsu, H. C. Li, H. M. Shu, and K. F. Liu Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan in August 2009 and induced considerable disasters, including large-scale landslides and debris flows. One of these debris flows was experienced by the Daniao tribe in Taitung, Eastern Taiwan. The volume was in excess of 500 000 m 3 , which was substantially larger than the original design mitigation capacity. This study considered large-scale debris flow simulations in various volumes at the same area by using the DEBRIS-2D numerical program. The program uses the generalized Julien and Lan (1991) rheological model to simulate debris flows. In this paper, the sensitivity factor considered on the debris flow spreading is the amount of the debris flow initial volume. These simulated results in various amounts of debris flow initial volume demonstrated that maximal depths of debris flows were almost deposited in the same area, and also revealed that a 20% variation in estimating the amount of total volume at this particular site results in a 2.75% variation on the final front position. Because of the limited watershed terrain, the hazard zones of debris flows were not expanded. Therefore, the amount of the debris flow initial volume was not sensitive.

Description: Optimal rain rate estimation algorithm for light and heavy rain using polarimetric measurements Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3067-3079, 2011 Author(s): A. Elmzoughi, R. Abdelfattah, V. Santalla Del Rio, and Z. Belhadj In this paper, we propose an ameliorated physically-based rain rate estimation algorithm for semi-arid regions using the Rayleigh approximation. The proposed algorithm simultaneously uses the reflectivity and the specific differential phase to provide an accurate estimation for both small and large rain rates. In order to validate the proposed estimator, simulated polarimetric rain rate data based on a dual approach, referring to both physical and statistical models of the rain target, are used. Moreover, experimental radar data (the same as used in Matrosov et al., 2006) taken in light to moderate stratiform rainfalls with rain rates varying between 2 and 15 mm h −1 were collected as part of the GPM pilot experiment. It is shown that the proposed algorithm for rain rate estimation based on the full set of polarimetric radar measurements agree better with in situ disdrometer ones.

Description: Postface "From natural hazards to technological disasters" Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3063-3065, 2011 Author(s): E. G. Petrova and E. Krausmann No abstract available.

Description: An approximate method of short-term tsunami forecast and the hindcasting of some recent events Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3081-3091, 2011 Author(s): Yu. P. Korolev The paper presents a method for a short-term tsunami forecast based on sea level data from remote sites. This method is based on Green's function for the wave equation possessing the fundamental property of symmetry. This property is well known in acoustics and seismology as the reciprocity principle. Some applications of this principle on tsunami research are considered in the current study. Simple relationships and estimated transfer functions enabled us to simulate tsunami waveforms for any selected oceanic point based only on the source location and sea level data from a remote reference site. The important advantage of this method is that it is irrespective of the actual source mechanism (seismic, submarine landslide or other phenomena). The method was successfully applied to hindcast several recent tsunamis observed in the Northwest Pacific. The locations of the earthquake epicenters and the tsunami records from one of the NOAA DART sites were used as inputs for the modelling, while tsunami observations at other DART sites were used to verify the model. Tsunami waveforms for the 2006, 2007 and 2009 earthquake events near Simushir Island were simulated and found to be in good agreement with the observations. The correlation coefficients between the predicted and observed tsunami waveforms were from 0.50 to 0.85. Thus, the proposed method can be effectively used to simulate tsunami waveforms for the entire ocean and also for both regional and local tsunami warning services, assuming that they have access to the real-time sea level data from DART stations.

Description: Rethinking earthquake-related DC-ULF electromagnetic phenomena: towards a physics-based approach Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2941-2949, 2011 Author(s): Q. Huang Numerous electromagnetic changes possibly related with earthquakes have been independently reported and have even been attempted to apply to short-term prediction of earthquakes. However, there are active debates on the above issue because the seismogenic process is rather complicated and the studies have been mainly empirical (i.e. a kind of experience-based approach). Thus, a physics-based study would be helpful for understanding earthquake-related electromagnetic phenomena and strengthening their applications. As a potential physics-based approach, I present an integrated research scheme, taking into account the interaction among observation, methodology, and physical model. For simplicity, this work focuses only on the earthquake-related DC-ULF electromagnetic phenomena. The main approach includes the following key problems: (1) how to perform a reliable and appropriate observation with some clear physical quantities; (2) how to develop a robust methodology to reveal weak earthquake-related electromagnetic signals from noisy background; and (3) how to develop plausible physical models based on theoretical analyses and/or laboratory experiments for the explanation of the earthquake-related electromagnetic signals observed in the field conditions.

Description: Rogue waves in 2006–2010 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2913-2924, 2011 Author(s): I. Nikolkina and I. Didenkulova The evidence of rogue wave existence all over the world during last five years (2006–2010) has been collected based mainly on mass media sources. Only events associated with damage and human loss are included. The waves occurred not only in deep and shallow zones of the World Ocean, but also at the coast, where they were manifested as either sudden flooding of the coast or high splashes over steep banks or sea walls. From the total number of 131 reported events, 78 were identified as evidence of rogue waves (which are expected to be at least twice larger than the significant wave height). The background significant wave height was estimated from the satellite wave data. The rogue waves at the coast, where the significant wave height is unknown or meaningless, were selected based on their unexpectedness and hazardous character. The statistics built on the selected 78 events suggests that extreme waves cause more damage in shallow waters and at the coast than in the deep sea and can be used for hazard assessment of the rogue wave phenomenon.

Description: Urban floods: a case study in the Savigliano area (North-Western Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2951-2964, 2011 Author(s): C. Audisio and L. Turconi Flood processes and effects are examined, concerning two rivers in an urbanized area in North-Western Italy (Piedmont – Cuneo Plain). In May 2008, some areas in Northern Italy were struck by intense and persistent rainfall. In the Cuneo province (Southern Piedmont), floodplain with some urban areas was inundated over ca. ten square kilometres, and the city of Savigliano (about 21 000 inhabitants) was particularly hit by flood. A purposely-made historical research has evidenced approximately fifty flood events as having occurred since 1350 in the Savigliano area. Based upon historical data, both documents and maps, GIS (Geographical Information System) technique and field surveys were used to quantitatively assess the growing urbanization of the city and to describe flood processes and effects over years. This work aims to describe the dynamic behaviour of the 2008 flood, also comparing it to past events, in particular those that occurred in 1896. It is emphasized how the knowledge of past events can be helpful in reducing urban flooding.

Description: Human activity and damaging landslides and floods on Madeira Island Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3035-3046, 2011 Author(s): D. Baioni Over the last few decades, the island of Madeira has become an important offshore tourism and business center, with rapid economic and demographic development that has caused changes to the landscape due to human activity. In Madeira's recent history, there has been an increase over time in the frequency of occurrence of damaging landslide and flood events. As a result, the costs of restoration work due to damage caused by landslide and flood events have become a larger and larger component of Madeira's annual budget. Landslides and floods in Madeira deserve particular attention because they represent the most serious hazard to human life, to property, and to the natural environment and its important heritage value. The work reported on in this paper involved the analysis of historical data regarding damaging landslide and flood events on Madeira (in particular from 1941 to 1991) together with data on geological characteristics, topographic features, and climate, and from field observations. This analysis showed that the main factor triggering the occurrence of damaging landslide and flood events is rainfall, but that the increase in the number of damaging events recorded on Madeira Island, especially in recent times, seems to be related mostly to human activity, specifically to economic development and population growth, rather than to natural factors.

Description: The stress field of Vrancea region from fault plane solution (FPS) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2817-2820, 2011 Author(s): L. Telesca, V. Alcaz, and I. Sandu The fault plane solutions (FPS) of 247 seismic events were used for stress field investigation of the region. The eigenvectors t , p , b , and moment tensor M components for each FPS were defined and computed numerically. The obtained results confirm the hypothesis of subduction-type intermediate depth earthquakes for the Vrancea seismic region and this may be considered the first approximation of the stress field for the whole of the Vrancea (intermediate depth) region.

Description: Impact of the use of a CO 2 responsive land surface model in simulating the effect of climate change on the hydrology of French Mediterranean basins Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2803-2816, 2011 Author(s): S. Queguiner, E. Martin, S. Lafont, J.-C. Calvet, S. Faroux, and P. Quintana-Seguí In order to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the impact model in climate change studies, a CO 2 responsive version of the land surface model ISBA (ISBA-A-gs) is compared with its standard version in a climate impact assessment study. The study is performed over the French Mediterranean basin using the Safran-Isba-Modcou chain. A downscaled A2 regional climate scenario is used to force both versions of ISBA, and the results of the two land surface models are compared for the present climate and for that at the end of the century. Reasonable agreement is found between models and with discharge observations. However, ISBA-A-gs has a lower mean evapotranspiration and a higher discharge than ISBA-Standard. Results for the impact of climate change are coherent on a yearly basis for evapotranspiration, total runoff, and discharge. However, the two versions of ISBA present contrasting seasonal variations. ISBA-A-gs develops a different vegetation cycle. The growth of the vegetation begins earlier and reaches a slightly lower maximum than in the present climate. This maximum is followed by a rapid decrease in summertime. In consequence, the springtime evapotranspiration is significantly increased when compared to ISBA-Standard, while the autumn evapotranspiration is lower. On average, discharge changes are more significant at the regional scale with ISBA-A-gs.

Description: The relevance of the North-Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP) in explaining temperature variability in Europe and the Mediterranean Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2881-2888, 2011 Author(s): M. Brunetti and H. Kutiel The impact of the upper level (500 hPa) teleconnection between the North-Sea and the Caspian (NCP) on the temperature and precipitation regimes in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) have been studied and reported and an index (NCPI) that measures the normalized geopotential heights' differences between the two poles of this teleconnection has been defined. In the present study, the impact of the NCP on the temperature regime over the entire European continent is presented. In particular, the correlation between temperature and the NCPI has been evaluated, on a monthly basis, over the entire Euro-Mediterranean domain for the 1948–2007 period. The results highlight a significant positive correlation in the north-western area of the domain and a significant negative correlation in the south-eastern one. These two poles were also highlighted by comparing the temperature anomalies associated with both phases of NCP. The importance of this sort of NCP-induced temperature bi-pole in the context of temperature variability over Europe and the Mediterranean has been evaluated by applying a Principal Component Analysis to the temperature dataset. The results showed that the temperature bi-pole is associated with the second most important mode of temperature variability over the domain, but if the analysis is restricted to the months associated to NCP (+) and NCP (−), it becomes the first mode with 29.2 % of associated variance.

Description: Triggering conditions and depositional characteristics of a disastrous debris flow event in Zhouqu city, Gansu Province, northwestern China Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2903-2912, 2011 Author(s): C. Tang, N. Rengers, Th. W. J. van Asch, Y. H. Yang, and G. F. Wang On 7 August 2010, catastrophic debris flows were triggered by a rainstorm in the catchments of the Sanyanyu and Luojiayu torrents, Zhouqu County, Gansu Province northwestern China. These two debris flows originated shortly after a rainstorm with an intensity of 77.3 mm h −1 and transported a total volume of about 2.2 million m 3 , which was deposited on an existing debris fan and into a river. This catastrophic event killed 1765 people living on this densely urbanised fan. The poorly sorted sediment contains boulders up to 3–4 m in diameter. In this study, the geomorphological features of both debris flow catchment areas are analyzed based on the interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing imagery combined with field investigation. The characteristics of the triggering rainfall and the initiation of the debris flow occurrence are discussed. Using empirical equations, the peak velocities and discharges of the debris flows were estimated to be around 9.7 m s −1 and 1358 m 3 s −1 for the Sanyanyu torrent and 11 m s −1 and 572 m 3 s −1 for the Luojiayu torrent. The results of this study contribute to a better understanding of the conditions leading to catastrophic debris flow events.

Description: The Henetus wave forecast system in the Adriatic Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2965-2979, 2011 Author(s): L. Bertotti, P. Canestrelli, L. Cavaleri1, F. Pastore, and L. Zampato We describe the Henetus wave forecast system in the Adriatic Sea. Operational since 1996, the system is continuously upgraded, especially through the correction of the input ECMWF wind fields. As these fields are of progressively improved quality with the increasing resolution of the meteorological model, the correction needs to be correspondingly updated. This ensures a practically constant quality of the Henetus results in the Adriatic Sea since 1996. After suitable and extended validation of the quality of the results at different forecast ranges, the operational range has been recently extended to five days. The Henetus results are used also to improve the tidal forecast on the Venetian coasts and the Venice lagoon, particularly during the most severe events. Extensive statistics on the model performance are provided, both as analysis and forecast, by comparing the model results versus both satellite and buoy data.

Description: A coastal storms intensity scale for the Catalan sea (NW Mediterranean) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2453-2462, 2011 Author(s): E. T. Mendoza, J. A. Jimenez, and J. Mateo A 5-class intensity scale for wave storms in the Catalan coast is presented. This has been done by analysing a storm data set which comprises 5 buoys during the period 1988/2008. The obtained classification improves the former proposal of Mendoza and Jiménez (2008) by better resolving spatial and temporal variability in wave storms in the area. The obtained classification reflects the increase in wave storm properties as the storm category increases. Because the selected classification parameter was the energy content which implicitly contains H s and storm duration, this variable was used to define class limits; class I storms (24–250 m 2 h), class II storms (251–500 m 2 h), class III (501–700 m 2 h), class IV storms (701–1200 m 2 h) and class V storms (〉1200 m 2 h). The energy content variable was also used as proxy for induced hazards; the observed increase in energy content for higher classes reflected a significant increase in the intensity of the potential hazards. Lastly, the dominant synoptic situation for wave storms along the Catalan coast was the presence of a Mediterranean cyclone although a direct correspondence on cyclone's intensity over the western Mediterranean with wave energy content was not found.

Description: Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over northeastern Spain (1960–2006) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2583-2603, 2011 Author(s): A. El Kenawy, J. I. López-Moreno, and S. M. Vicente-Serrano Spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme temperature events in northeastern Spain have been investigated. The analysis is based on long-term, high-quality, and homogenous daily maximum and minimum temperature of 128 observatories spanning the period from 1960 to 2006. A total of 21 indices were used to assess changes in both the cold and hot tails of the daily temperature distributions. The presence of trends in temperature extremes was assessed by means of the Mann-Kendall test. However, the autocorrelation function (ACF) and a bootstrap methodology were used to account for the influence of serial correlation and cross-correlation on the trend assessment. In general, the observed changes are more prevalent in hot extremes than in cold extremes. This finding can largely be linked to the increase found in the mean maximum temperature during the last few decades. The results indicate a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of most of the hot temperature extremes. An increase in warm nights (TN90p: 3.3 days decade −1 ), warm days (TX90p: 2.7 days decade −1 ), tropical nights (TR20: 0.6 days decade −1 ) and the annual high maximum temperature (TXx: 0.27 °C decade −1 ) was detected in the 47-yr period. In contrast, most of the indices related to cold temperature extremes (e.g. cold days (TX10p), cold nights (TN10p), very cold days (TN1p), and frost days (FD0)) demonstrated a decreasing but statistically insignificant trend. Although there is no evidence of a long-term trend in cold extremes, significant interdecadal variations were noted. Almost no significant trends in temperature variability indices (e.g. diurnal temperature range (DTR) and growing season length (GSL)) are detected. Spatially, the coastal areas along the Mediterranean Sea and the Cantabrian Sea experienced stronger warming compared with mainland areas. Given that only few earlier studies analyzed observed changes in temperature extremes at fine spatial resolution across the Iberian Peninsula, the results of this work can improve our understanding of climatology of temperature extremes. Also, these findings can have different hydrological, ecological and agricultural implications (e.g. crop yields, energy consumption, land use planning and water resources management).

Description: Comparative study on earthquake and ground based transmitter induced radiation belt electron precipitation at middle latitudes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1901-1913, 2011 Author(s): N. F. Sidiropoulos, G. Anagnostopoulos, and V. Rigas We examined (peak-to-background flux ratio p/b 〉 20) energetic electron bursts in the presence of VLF activity, as observed from the DEMETER satellite at low altitudes (~700 km). Our statistical analysis of measurements during two 6-month periods suggests that: (a) the powerful transmitter NWC causes the strongest effects on the inner radiation belts in comparison with other ground-based VLF transmitters, (b) the NWC transmitter was responsible for only ~1.5 % of total electron bursts examined during the 6-month period (1 July 2008 to 31 December 2008), (c) VLF transmitter-related electron bursts are accompanied by the presence of a narrow band emission centered at the radiating frequency emission, whereas the earthquake-related electron bursts are accompanied by the presence of broadband emissions from a few kHz to 〉20 KHz, (d) daytime events are less preferable than nighttime events, but this asymmetry was found to be less evident when the powerful transmitter NWC was turned off and (d) seismic activity most probably dominated the electromagnetic interactions producing the electron precipitation at middle latitudes. The results of this study support the proposal that the detection of radiation belt electron precipitation, besides other kinds of studies, is a useful tool for earthquake prediction research.

Description: Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software (OPAL) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1885-1899, 2011 Author(s): J. E. Daniell This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and their application using an "Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software" (OPAL). The OPAL procedure was created to provide a framework for optimisation of a Global Earthquake Modelling process through: 1. overview of current and new components of earthquake loss assessment (vulnerability, hazard, exposure, specific cost, and technology); 2. preliminary research, acquisition, and familiarisation for available ELE software packages; 3. assessment of these software packages in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the ELE methods used; and 4. loss analysis for a deterministic earthquake ( M w = 7.2) for the Zeytinburnu district, Istanbul, Turkey, by applying 3 software packages (2 new and 1 existing): a modified displacement-based method based on DBELA (Displacement Based Earthquake Loss Assessment, Crowley et al., 2006), a capacity spectrum based method HAZUS (HAZards United States, FEMA, USA, 2003) and the Norwegian HAZUS-based SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach, Lindholm et al., 2007) software which was adapted for use in order to compare the different processes needed for the production of damage, economic, and social loss estimates. The modified DBELA procedure was found to be more computationally expensive, yet had less variability, indicating the need for multi-tier approaches to global earthquake loss estimation. Similar systems planning and ELE software produced through the OPAL procedure can be applied to worldwide applications, given exposure data.

Description: Heterogeneous temperature sensitivity of effective radium concentration from various rock and soil samples Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1619-1626, 2011 Author(s): F. Girault and F. Perrier Temporal variations of radon concentration, or spatial variations around geothermal systems, are partly driven by the effect of temperature on the radon source term, the effective radium concentration (EC Ra ). EC Ra from 12 crushed rock and 12 soil samples from Nepal was measured in the laboratory using the radon accumulation method and Lucas scintillation flasks at three temperatures: 7, 22 and 37 °C. For each sample and at each temperature, 5 or 6 measurements were carried out, representing a total of 360 measurements, with an EC Ra average varying from 1.1 to 75 Bq kg −1 . While the effect is small, EC Ra was observed to increase with temperature in a significant and sufficiently reproducible manner. The increase was approximately linear with a slope (temperature sensitivity, TS) expressed in % °C −1 . We observed a large heterogeneity of TS with average values (range min-max) of 0.79 ± 0.05 (0.16–2.0) % °C −1 and 0.61 ± 0.05 (0.10–2.0) % °C −1 , for rock and soil samples, respectively. While this range overlaps with the results of previous studies, our values of TS tend to be smaller. The observed heterogeneity implies that the TS, rather poorly understood, needs to be assessed by dedicated experiments in every case where it is of consequence for the interpretation.

Description: Experimental evidence of the compatibility of the cumulative electromagnetic energy release data, with the hierarchical models for the catastrophic fracturing process Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1605-1608, 2011 Author(s): D. Mastrogiannis, V. Hadjicontis, and C. Mavromatou In this paper, we performed experiments of uniaxial compression of granite samples and recorded time series of electromagnetic pulses during the evolution of the catastrophic fracturing process. The cumulative energy release of the electromagnetic emission (EME) up to the critical point at the moment of rupture was then calculated. It was shown, that the validity of the proposed hierarchy models for the catastrophic fracturing process of composite materials, in analogy to critical phenomena, can be experimentally established not only via acoustic emission data, but via electromagnetic emission data as well. The above conclusion could be a useful tool for the improvement of the earthquake prediction method, based on precursory electromagnetic signals.

Description: Flood susceptibility assessment in a highly urbanized alluvial fan: the case study of Sala Consilina (southern Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2765-2780, 2011 Author(s): N. Santangelo, A. Santo, G. Di Crescenzo, G. Foscari, V. Liuzza, S. Sciarrotta, and V. Scorpio This paper deals with the risk assessment to alluvial fan flooding at the piedmont zone of carbonate massifs of the southern Apennines chain (southern Italy). These areas are prime spots for urban development and are generally considered to be safer than the valley floors. As a result, villages and towns have been built on alluvial fans which, during intense storms, may be affected by flooding and/or debris flow processes. The study area is located at the foothills of the Maddalena mountains, an elongated NW-SE trending ridge which bounds to the east the wide intermontane basin of Vallo di Diano. The area comprises a wide detrital talus (bajada) made up by coalescent alluvial fans, ranging in age from the Middle Pleistocene to the Holocene. Historical analysis was carried out to ascertain the state of activity of the fans and to identify and map the zones most hit by past flooding. According to the information gathered, the Sala Consilina fans would appear prone to debris flows; in the past these processes have produced extensive damage and loss of life in the urban area. The watershed basins feeding the fans have very low response times and may produce debris flow events with high magnitudes. Taking into account the historical damage, the fan surface morphology, and the present urban development (street orientation and hydraulic network), the piedmont area was zoned and various susceptibility classes were detected. These results may represent a useful tool for studies aiming at territorial hazard mapping and civil protection interventions.

Description: Ground motion predictive modelling based on genetic algorithms Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2781-2789, 2011 Author(s): S. Yilmaz This study aims to utilise genetic algorithms for the estimation of peak ground accelerations (PGA). A case study is carried out for the earthquake data from south-west Turkey. The input parameters used for the development of attenuation relationship are magnitude, depth of earthquake, epicentral distance, average shear wave velocity and slope height of the site. Earthquake database compiled by the Earthquake Research Institute of Turkey was used for model development. An important contribution to this study is the slope/hill data included into the dataset. Developed empirical model has a good correlation ( R = 0.78 and 0.75 for the training and overall datasets) between measured and estimated PGA values. The proposed model is also compared with local empirical predictive models and its results are found to be reasonable. The slope-hill effect found to be an important parameter for the estimation of PGA.

Description: Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2791-2801, 2011 Author(s): F. Baart, M. A. J. Bakker, A. van Dongeren, C. den Heijer, S. van Heteren, M. W. J. Smit, M. van Koningsveld, and A. Pool For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed. The reconstructions are based on paintings, drawings, written records and shell deposits that have recently appeared. The storm-surge levels of these storms have been estimated using numerical modelling of the coastal processes. Here we show how these reconstructions can be used in combination with extreme value statistics to give a more confident estimate of low probability events.

Description: New tsunami damage functions developed in the framework of SCHEMA project: application to European-Mediterranean coasts Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2835-2846, 2011 Author(s): N. Valencia, A. Gardi, A. Gauraz, F. Leone, and R. Guillande In the framework of the European SCenarios for tsunami Hazard-induced Emergencies MAnagement (SCHEMA) project ( www.schemaproject.org ), we empirically developed new tsunami damage functions to be used for quantifying the potential tsunami damage to buildings along European-Mediterranean coasts. Since no sufficient post-tsunami observations exist in the Mediterranean areas, we based our work on data collected by several authors in Banda Aceh (Indonesia) after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Obviously, special attention has been paid in focusing on Indonesian buildings which present similarities (in structure, construction material, number of storeys) with the building typologies typical of the European-Mediterranean areas. An important part of the work consisted in analyzing, merging, and interpolating the post-disaster observations published by three independent teams in order to obtain the spatial distribution of flow depths necessary to link the flow-depth hazard parameter to the damage level observed on buildings. Then we developed fragility curves (showing the cumulative probability to have, for each flow depth, a damage level equal-to or greater-than a given threshold) and damage curves (giving the expected damage level) for different classes of buildings. It appears that damage curves based on the weighted mean damage level and the maximum flow depth are the most appropriate for producing, under GIS, expected damage maps for different tsunami scenarios.

Description: European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2847-2857, 2011 Author(s): M. R. Haylock Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961–2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed. The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

Description: Assessing the hydrodynamic boundary conditions for risk analyses in coastal areas: a stochastic storm surge model Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2925-2939, 2011 Author(s): T. Wahl, C. Mudersbach, and J. Jensen This paper describes a methodology to stochastically simulate a large number of storm surge scenarios (here: 10 million). The applied model is very cheap in computation time and will contribute to improve the overall results from integrated risk analyses in coastal areas. Initially, the observed storm surge events from the tide gauges of Cuxhaven (located in the Elbe estuary) and Hörnum (located in the southeast of Sylt Island) are parameterised by taking into account 25 parameters (19 sea level parameters and 6 time parameters). Throughout the paper, the total water levels are considered. The astronomical tides are semidiurnal in the investigation area with a tidal range 〉2 m. The second step of the stochastic simulation consists in fitting parametric distribution functions to the data sets resulting from the parameterisation. The distribution functions are then used to run Monte-Carlo-Simulations. Based on the simulation results, a large number of storm surge scenarios are reconstructed. Parameter interdependencies are considered and different filter functions are applied to avoid inconsistencies. Storm surge scenarios, which are of interest for risk analyses, can easily be extracted from the results.

Description: High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2821-2833, 2011 Author(s): M. G. Donat, T. Pardowitz, G. C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, and O. Burghoff A refined model for the calculation of storm losses is presented, making use of high-resolution insurance loss records for Germany and allowing loss estimates on a spatial level of administrative districts and for single storm events. Storm losses are calculated on the basis of wind speeds from both ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalyses. The loss model reproduces the spatial distribution of observed losses well by taking specific regional loss characteristics into account. This also permits high-accuracy estimates of total cumulated losses, though slightly underestimating the country-wide loss sums for storm "Kyrill", the most severe event in the insurance loss records from 1997 to 2007. A larger deviation, which is assigned to the relatively coarse resolution of the NCEP reanalysis, is only found for one specific rather small-scale event, not adequately captured by this dataset. The loss model is subsequently applied to the complete reanalysis period to extend the storm event catalogue to cover years when no systematic insurance records are available. This allows the consideration of loss-intensive storm events back to 1948, enlarging the event catalogue to cover the recent 60+ years, and to investigate the statistical characteristics of severe storm loss events in Germany based on a larger sample than provided by the insurance records only. Extreme value analysis is applied to the loss data to estimate the return periods of loss-intensive storms, yielding a return period for storm "Kyrill", for example, of approximately 15 to 21 years.

Description: A multidisciplinary analysis for traces of the last state of earthquake generation in preseismic electromagnetic emissions Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2859-2879, 2011 Author(s): S. M. Potirakis, G. Minadakis, C. Nomicos, and K. Eftaxias Many questions about earthquake (EQ) generation remain standing. Fracture induced electromagnetic (EM) fields allow real-time monitoring of damage evolution in materials during mechanical loading. An improved understanding of the EM precursors has direct implications for the study of EQ generation processes. An important challenge in this direction is to identify an observed anomaly in a recorded EM time series as a pre-seismic one and correspond this to a distinct stage of EQ generation. In previous papers (Kapiris et al., 2004; Contoyiannis et al., 2005; Papadimitriou et al., 2008), we have shown that the last kHz part of the emerged precursory EM activity is rooted in the fracture of the backbone of asperities distributed along the activated fault, sustaining the system. The crucial character of this suggestion requires further support. In this work we focus on this effort. Tools of information theory (Fisher Information) and concepts of entropy (Shannon and Tsallis entropies) are employed. The analysis indicates that the launch of the EM precursor is combined with the appearance of a significantly higher level of organization, which is an imprint of a corresponding higher level of organization of the local seismicity preceding the EQ occurrence. We argue that the temporal evolution of the detected EM precursor is in harmony with the Intermittent Criticality approach of fracture by means of energy release, correlation length, Hurst exponent and a power-law exponent obtained from frequency-size distributions of seismic/electromagnetic avalanche events. The candidate precursory EM activity is also consistent with other precursors from other disciplines. Thus, accumulated evidence, including laboratory experiments, strengthen the consideration that the emergence of the kHz EM precursor is sourced in the fracture of asperities indicating that EQ occurrence is expected.

Description: Floodplain conflicts: regulation and negotiation Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2889-2902, 2011 Author(s): J. Pardoe, E. Penning-Rowsell, and S. Tunstall In the continuing shift from engineered solutions towards more holistic methods of managing flood risk, spatial planning has become the primary focus of a conflict between land and water, water and people. In attempting to strike a balance between making space for water and making space for people, compromises are required. Through five case studies in the UK, this paper analyses the effectiveness of Planning Policy Statement 25 (PPS 25) and the processes of negotiation that it promotes. This assessment allows us to draw conclusions on the nature of the compromises this kind of negotiation can achieve and the implications of this for flood risk management. What emerges is that the beneficial impacts of decisions to develop floodplain areas are given a proper hearing and sensible conditions imposed, rather than arguments to prevent such development remaining unchallenged.

Description: Flood quantiles estimation based on theoretically derived distributions: regional analysis in Southern Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 673-695, 2011 Author(s): V. Iacobellis, A. Gioia, S. Manfreda, and M. Fiorentino A regional probabilistic model for the estimation of medium-high return period flood quantiles is presented. The model is based on the use of theoretically derived probability distributions of annual maximum flood peaks (DDF). The general model is called TCIF (Two-Component IF model) and encompasses two different threshold mechanisms associated with ordinary and extraordinary events, respectively. Based on at-site calibration of this model for 33 gauged sites in Southern Italy, a regional analysis is performed obtaining satisfactory results for the estimation of flood quantiles for return periods of technical interest, thus suggesting the use of the proposed methodology for the application to ungauged basins. The model is validated by using a jack-knife cross-validation technique taking all river basins into consideration.

Description: Magnetic signature of Siaolin Village, southern Taiwan, after burial by a catastrophic landslide due to Typhoon Morakot Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 759-764, 2011 Author(s): W.-B. Doo, S.-K. Hsu, C.-C. Chen, H.-H. Hsieh, H.-Y. Yen, Y.-G. Chen, and W.-Y. Chang Typhoon Morakot caused terrible flooding and torrential rains that severely damaged southern Taiwan. Swollen rivers wiped out roads and demolished buildings. Long-lasting and intense rainfall triggered landslides in many regions in southern Taiwan, including the landslide that buried Siaolin Village in Kaohsiung County and killed approximately 500 people. Locating buried buildings immediately after a landslide could be an emergent issue in life saving and hazard mitigation. Analyzing the magnetic signature of a buried area is an efficient and non-destructive way to detect subsurface buildings. This paper presents the results of a magnetic survey for the purpose of outlining subsurface images of Siaolin Village after the catastrophic landslide induced by Typhoon Morakot in 2009. We found that a high-resolution magnetic survey can reveal suspected building positions that match the initial locations of buildings in Siaolin Village. The estimated depths of the buried buildings are 5–10 m deep. The magnetic data further suggest a possible debris-flow direction of NE to SW because the northern part of the village was mostly destroyed, while buildings in the southern part of the village remained in place.

Description: Advanced radar-interpretation of InSAR time series for mapping and characterization of geological processes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 865-881, 2011 Author(s): F. Cigna, C. Del Ventisette, V. Liguori, and N. Casagli We present a new post-processing methodology for the analysis of InSAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry) multi-temporal measures, based on the temporal under-sampling of displacement time series, the identification of potential changes occurring during the monitoring period and, eventually, the classification of different deformation behaviours. The potentials of this approach for the analysis of geological processes were tested on the case study of Naro (Italy), specifically selected due to its geological setting and related ground instability of unknown causes that occurred in February 2005. The time series analysis of past (ERS1/2 descending data; 1992–2000) and current (RADARSAT-1 ascending data; 2003–2007) ground movements highlighted significant displacement rates (up to 6 mm yr −1 ) in 2003–2007, followed by a post-event stabilization. The deformational behaviours of instable areas involved in the 2005 event were also detected, clarifying typology and kinematics of ground instability. The urban sectors affected and unaffected by the event were finally mapped, consequently re-defining and enlarging the influenced area previously detected by field observations. Through the integration of InSAR data and conventional field surveys (i.e. geological, geomorphologic and geostructural campaigns), the causes of instability were finally attributed to tectonics.

Description: Association between anomalies of moisture flux and extreme runoff events in the south-eastern Alps Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 915-920, 2011 Author(s): M. Müller and M. Kaspar The aims of the paper are (i) to describe the annual distribution of extreme runoff events on the Mura, Drava and Sava Rivers, (ii) to demonstrate their association with moisture fluxes, and (iii) to explain their annual distribution by moisture flux climatology. Extreme runoff events were defined as rapid increases in daily mean discharge. Moisture flux anomalies were studied within six pixels of the ERA-40 database around the studied region. In general, extreme runoff events were concentrated in the summer and autumn and were usually associated with anomalies in moisture flux, mainly from the south. Nevertheless, while southern and western moisture fluxes were typical of Sava River events that occurred mainly in autumn, summer events prevailed on the Mura River and were frequently associated with moisture fluxes from the east or the north. It is remarkable that moisture fluxes from the west and south have their maxima in the autumn, whereas those from the east and north have their maxima in the summer. Therefore, the climatology of moisture flux seems to be one of the major reasons for the annual distribution of extreme runoff events in the study region. This result should be confirmed in other regions in the future.

Description: North Atlantic atmospheric regimes and winter extremes in the Iberian peninsula Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 971-980, 2011 Author(s): M. J. OrtizBeviá, E. SánchezGómez, and F. J. Alvarez-García In this study, we assess the relationships between North Atlantic scale atmospheric regimes and extremes of precipitation and minimum temperature in the Iberian peninsula for an extended (DJFM) winter season. As found in previous studies, large scale atmospheric regimes are well represented in climate simulations while the extreme atmospheric variability is not. The relationship between some of these atmospheric regimes and the probability of occurrence of extreme values in simulations of present day climatic variability is validated here with daily observations at 68 meteorological stations all over the Iberian peninsula. Therefore, the possible changes in the probability of occurrence of winter extremes of minimum temperature and precipitation are obtained by projecting the changes in the probability of occurrence of the winter atmospheric regimes. The trends in the frequency of the observed large scale patterns give an indication of what can be expected in the next decades. For the long term (in a century), the changes are obtained directly from the comparison of the frequencies of the atmospheric regimes in the scenario simulations with those of the historical period. The projections obtained in this way are tested for consistency with the results obtained by comparing the changes in the extremes threshold values in the scenario with those of the historical simulations. The results point to a future with less precipitation extreme events and less minimum temperature extreme events in winter in the westerly central part of the Iberian peninsula.

Description: Co-seismic surface effects from very high resolution panchromatic images: the case of the 2005 Kashmir (Pakistan) earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 931-943, 2011 Author(s): M. Chini, F. R. Cinti, and S. Stramondo The use of Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite panchromatic image is nowadays an effective tool to detect and investigate surface effects of natural disasters. We specifically examined the capabilities of VHR images to analyse earthquake features and detect changes based on the combination of visual inspection and automatic classification tools. In particular, we have used Quickbird (0.6 m spatial resolution) images for detecting the three main co-seismic surface features: damages, ruptures and landslides. The present approach has been applied to the 8 October 2005, M w 7.6 Kashmir, Pakistan, earthquake. We have focused our study in and around the main urban areas hit by the above earthquake specifically at Muzaffarabad and Balakot towns. The automatic classification techniques provided the best results wherever dealing with the damage to man-made structures and landslides. On the other hand, the visual inspection method demonstrated in addressing the identification of rupture traces and associated features. The synoptic view (concerning landslide, more than 190 millions of pixels have been automatically classified), the spatiotemporal sampling and the fast automatic damage detection using satellite images provided a reliable contribution to the prompt response during natural disaster and for the evaluation of seismic hazard as well.

Description: Time-predictable model applicability for earthquake occurrence in northeast India and vicinity Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 993-1002, 2011 Author(s): A. Panthi, D. Shanker, H. N. Singh, A. Kumar, and H. Paudyal Northeast India and its vicinity is one of the seismically most active regions in the world, where a few large and several moderate earthquakes have occurred in the past. In this study the region of northeast India has been considered for an earthquake generation model using earthquake data as reported by earthquake catalogues National Geophysical Data Centre, National Earthquake Information Centre, United States Geological Survey and from book prepared by Gupta et al. (1986) for the period 1906–2008. The events having a surface wave magnitude of M s ≥5.5 were considered for statistical analysis. In this region, nineteen seismogenic sources were identified by the observation of clustering of earthquakes. It is observed that the time interval between the two consecutive mainshocks depends upon the preceding mainshock magnitude ( M p ) and not on the following mainshock ( M f ). This result corroborates the validity of time-predictable model in northeast India and its adjoining regions. A linear relation between the logarithm of repeat time ( T ) of two consecutive events and the magnitude of the preceding mainshock is established in the form Log T = cM p + a , where " c " is a positive slope of line and " a " is function of minimum magnitude of the earthquake considered. The values of the parameters " c " and " a " are estimated to be 0.21 and 0.35 in northeast India and its adjoining regions. The less value of c than the average implies that the earthquake occurrence in this region is different from those of plate boundaries. The result derived can be used for long term seismic hazard estimation in the delineated seismogenic regions.

Description: Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 587-595, 2011 Author(s): J. Hosek, P. Musilek, E. Lozowski, and P. Pytlak The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event. The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages.

Description: The economic value of drought information for water management under climate change: a case study in the Ebro basin Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 643-657, 2011 Author(s): S. Quiroga, L. Garrote, A. Iglesias, Z. Fernández-Haddad, J. Schlickenrieder, B. de Lama, C. Mosso, and A. Sánchez-Arcilla Drought events in the Mediterranean are likely to increase in frequency, duration and intensity due to climate change, thereby affecting crop production. Information about drought is valuable for river basin authorities and the farmers affected by their decisions. The economic value of this information and the resulting decisions are of interest to these two stakeholder groups and to the information providers. Understanding the dynamics of extreme events, including droughts, in future climate scenarios for the Mediterranean is being improved continuously. This paper analyses the economic value of information on drought events taking into account the risk aversion of water managers. We consider the effects of drought management plans on rice production in the Ebro river basin. This enables us to compute the willingness to compensate the river basin authority for more accurate information allowing for better decision-making. If runoff is reduced, river basin planners can consider the reduction of water allocation for irrigation in order to eliminate the risk of water scarcity. Alternately, river basin planners may decide to maintain water allocation and accept a reduction of water supply reliability, leaving farmers exposed to drought events. These two alternatives offer different risk levels for crop production and farmers' incomes which determine the value of this information to the river basin authority. The information is relevant for the revision of River Basin Management Plans of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) within the context of climate change.

Description: Extreme waves at Filyos, southern Black Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 659-666, 2011 Author(s): E. Bilyay, B. O. Ozbahceci, and A. C. Yalciner A wave measurement project was carried out for a new port planned in Filyos, in the Western Black Sea region of Turkey. The measurement at a depth of 12.5 m lasted for a period of two years and 7949 records were obtained. During the analysis, it was noticed that there were 209 records in which H / H s ratio was higher than 2.0. These higher waves in a record are called extreme waves in this study. Although the purpose of wave measurement is not to investigate extreme waves, it is believed that studying these unexpected waves could be interesting. Therefore, detailed statistical and spectral analyses on the extreme waves were done for the records. The analyses results show that the distribution of surface profiles of the records containing extreme waves deviates from Gaussian distribution with the negative skewness changing between –0.01 and –0.4 and with the high kurtosis in the range of 3.1–4.2. Although the probability of occurrence of the extreme waves is over-predicted by the Rayleigh distribution, a higher ratio of H s /η rms indicates that the wave height distribution can be represented by Rayleigh. The average value of the slope of the frequency spectrum at the high frequency range is proportional to f –9 which is much steeper than the typical wind-wave frequency power law, f –4, –5 . The directional spreading is measured with the parameter S max and it is in the range of 5–70 for the extreme wave records. The wave and current interaction was also investigated and it was found that in most cases, extreme waves occur when the wave and the current are almost aligned. Furthermore, it is observed that extreme waves appear within a group of high waves.

Description: Multi-rogue waves solutions to the focusing NLS equation and the KP-I equation Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 667-672, 2011 Author(s): P. Dubard and V. B. Matveev We construct a multi-parametric family of quasi-rational solutions to the focusing NLS equation, presenting a profile of multiple rogue waves. These solutions have also been used by us to construct a large family of smooth, real localized rational solutions of the KP-I equation quite different from the multi-lumps solutions first constructed in Bordag et al. (1977). The physical relevance of both equations is very large. From the point of view of geosciences,the focusing NLS equation is relevant to the description of surface waves in deep water, and the KP-I equation occurs in the description of capillary gravitational waves on a liquid surface, but also when one considers magneto-acoustic waves in plasma (Zhdanov, 1984) etc. In addition, there are plenty of equations of physical importance, having their origin in fiber optics, hydrodynamics, plasma physics and many other areas, which are gauge equivalent to the NLS equation or to the KP-I equation. Therefore our results can be easily extended to a large number of systems of physical interest to be discussed in separate publications.

Description: Rapid forecasting of tsunami runup heights from 2-D numerical simulations Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 707-714, 2011 Author(s): B. H. Choi, V. Kaistrenko, K. O. Kim, B. I. Min, and E. Pelinovsky We propose a method to compute tsunami runup heights that is based on an integration of numerical, 2-D shallow-water modelling and an analytical, 1-D long-wave runup theory. This approach provides a faster forecast of tsunami runup heights than a complicated coastal inundation model. Through simulations of potential tsunami scenarios, this approach can also be applied to long-term tsunami prediction. We tested the model by simulating the historical event in the East (Japan) Sea and found that the estimates of runup heights agreed well with the available observations.

Description: The legal status of Uncertainty Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 797-806, 2011 Author(s): M. Altamura, L. Ferraris, D. Miozzo, L. Musso, and F. Siccardi An exponential improvement of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models was observed during the last decade (Lynch, 2008). Civil Protection (CP) systems exploited Meteo services in order to redeploy their actions towards the prediction and prevention of events rather than towards an exclusively response-oriented mechanism 1 . Nevertheless, experience tells us that NWP models, even if assisted by real time observations, are far from being deterministic. Complications frequently emerge in medium to long range forecasting, which are subject to sudden modifications. On the other hand, short term forecasts, if seen through the lens of criminal trials 2 , are to the same extent, scarcely reliable (Molini et al., 2009). One particular episode related with wrong forecasts, in the Italian panorama, has deeply frightened CP operators as the NWP model in force missed a meteorological adversity which, in fact, caused death and dealt severe damage in the province of Vibo Valentia (2006). This event turned into a very discussed trial, lasting over three years, and intended against whom assumed the legal position of guardianship within the CP. A first set of data is now available showing that in concomitance with the trial of Vibo Valentia the number of alerts issued raised almost three folds. We sustain the hypothesis that the beginning of the process of overcriminalization (Husak, 2008) of CPs is currently increasing the number of false alerts with the consequent effect of weakening alert perception and response by the citizenship (Brezntiz, 1984). The common misunderstanding of such an issue, i.e. the inherent uncertainty in weather predictions, mainly by prosecutors and judges, and generally by whom deals with law and justice, is creating the basis for a defensive behaviour 3 within CPs. This paper intends, thus, to analyse the social and legal relevance of uncertainty in the process of issuing meteo-hydrological alerts by CPs. Footnotes: 1 The Italian Civil Protection is working in this direction since 1992 (L. 225/92). An example of this effort is clearly given by the Prime Minister Decree (DPCM 20/12/2001 "Linee guida relative ai piani regionali per la programmazione delle attivita' di previsione, prevenzione e lotta attiva contro gli incendi boschivi – Guidelines for regional plans for the planning of prediction, prevention and forest fires fighting activities" ) that, already in 2001, emphasized " the most appropriate approach to pursue the preservation of forests is to promote and encourage prediction and prevention activities rather than giving priority to the emergency-phase focused on fire-fighting" . 2 Supreme Court of the United States, In re Winship (No. 778), No. 778 argued: 20 January 1970, decided: 31 March 1970: Proof beyond a reasonable doubt, which is required by the Due Process Clause in criminal trials, is among the "essentials of due process and fair treatment" 3 In Kessler and McClellan (1996): "Defensive medicine is a potentially serious social problem: if fear of liability drives health care providers to administer treatments that do not have worthwhile medical benefits, then the current liability system may generate inefficiencies much larger than the costs of compensating malpractice claimants".

Description: Gravity wave amplification and phase crest re-organization over a shoal Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 789-796, 2011 Author(s): N. Jarry, V. Rey, F. Gouaud, and D. Lajoie In this experimental work, both wave amplification and phase evolution, due to a submerged mound, are studied. In addition to the classical surface wave measurements, the experimental study takes advantage of photographs that underline crest re-organization above and down-wave the shoal. In particular, together with wave amplification up to more than twice the incident wave, a wave steepening is observed in certain conditions in both the wave direction and in the cross-section. Due to a phase crest separation downstream of the shoal, steepening in the cross-shore direction is enhanced (up to 30% above the steepening along the main direction of propagation). Physical aspects are discussed through the analysis of the diffraction effects on the wave properties.

Description: Synoptic patterns associated with wildfires caused by lightning in Castile and Leon, Spain Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 851-863, 2011 Author(s): E. García-Ortega, M. T. Trobajo, L. López, and J. L. Sánchez The Iberian Peninsula presents the highest number of wildfires in Europe. In the NW of Spain in particular, wildfires are the natural risk with the greatest economic impact in this region. Wildfires caused by lightning are closely related to the triggering of convective phenomena. The prediction of thunderstorms is a very complex task because these weather events have a local character and are highly dependent on mesoscale atmospheric conditions. The development of convective storms is directly linked to the existence of a synoptic environment favoring convection. The aim of this study is to classify the atmospheric patterns that provide favorable environments for the occurrence of wildfires caused by lightning in the region of Castile and Leon, Spain. The database used for the study contains 376 wildfire days from the period 1987–2006. NCEP data reanalysis has been used. The atmospheric fields used to characterise each day were: geopotential heights and temperatures at 500 hPa and 850 hPa, relative humidity and the horizontal wind at 850 hPa. A Principal Component Analysis in T-mode followed by a Cluster Analysis resulted in a classification of wildfire days into five clusters. The characteristics of these clusters were analysed and described, focusing particularly on the study of those wildfire days in which more than one wildfire was detected. In these cases the main feature observed was the intensification of the disturbance typical of the cluster to which the wildfire belongs.

Description: Occurrence of extreme waves in three-dimensional mechanically generated wave fields propagating over an oblique current Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 895-903, 2011 Author(s): A. Toffoli, L. Cavaleri, A. V. Babanin, M. Benoit, E. M. Bitner-Gregersen, J. Monbaliu, M. Onorato, A. R. Osborne, and C. T. Stansberg Laboratory experiments were performed to study the dynamics of three- dimensional mechanically generated waves propagating over an oblique current in partial opposition. The flow velocity varied along the mean wave direction of propagation with an increasing trend between the wave-maker and the centre of the tank. Tests with regular wave packets traversing the area of positive current gradient showed that the concurrent increase of wave steepness triggered modulational instability on otherwise stable wave trains and hence induced the development of very large amplitude waves. In random directional wave fields, the presence of the oblique current resulted in a weak reinforcement of wave instability with a subsequent increase of the probability of occurrence of extreme events. This seems to partially compensate the suppression of strongly non-Gaussian properties due to directional energy distribution.

Description: Industrial accidents triggered by natural hazards: an emerging risk issue Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 921-929, 2011 Author(s): E. Krausmann, V. Cozzani, E. Salzano, and E. Renni The threat of natural hazards impacting chemical facilities and infrastructures with the subsequent release of hazardous substances has been recognised as an emerging risk which is likely to be exacerbated by the ongoing climate change. Within the European FP7 project iNTeg-Risk, efforts are dedicated to address the problem of Natech accidents by trying to understand their underlying causes and by developing methodologies and tools to assess Natech risk. Special attention is thereby given to the risk of chemical accidents triggered by earthquakes, floods and lightning. This work outlines the ongoing efforts in the development of new concepts and tools for Natech hazard and vulnerability ranking, risk assessment, risk-based design, and emergency planning and early warning.