ALBERT

Description: Rainfall-triggered landslides taking place in the Spanish Eastern Pyrenees have usually been analysed on a regional scale. Most research focussed either on terrain susceptibility or on the characteristics of the critical rainfall, neglecting a detailed analysis of individual events. In contrast to other mountainous regions, research on debris flow has only been performed marginally and associated hazard has mostly been neglected. In this study, five debris flows, which occurred in 2008, are selected; and site specific descriptions and analysis regarding geology, morphology, rainfall data and runout were performed. The results are compared with worldwide data and some conclusions on hazard assessment are presented. The five events can be divided into two in-channel debris flows and three landslide-triggered debris flows. The in-channel generated debris flows exceeded 10 000 m3, which are unusually large mass movements compared to historic events which occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees. In contrast, the other events mobilised total volumes less than 2000 m3. The geomorphologic analysis showed that the studied events emphasize similar patterns when compared to published data focussing on slope angle in the initiation zone or catchment area. Rainfall data revealed that all debris flows were triggered by high intensity-short duration rainstorms during the summer season. Unfortunately, existing rainfall thresholds in the Eastern Pyrenees consider long-lasting rainfall, usually occurring in autumn/winter. Therefore, new thresholds should be established taking into account the rainfall peak intensity in mm/h, which seems to be a much more relevant factor for summer than the event's total precipitation. The runout analysis of the 2008 debris flows confirms the trend that larger volumes generally induce higher mobility. The numerical simulation of the Riu Runer event shows that its dynamic behaviour is well represented by Voellmy fluid rheology. A maximum front velocity of 7 m/s was back-analysed for the transit section and even on the fan velocities larger than 2 m/s were obtained. This preliminary analysis of the major Eastern Pyrenean debris flows represents the first background for future studies. Additional research on other events is necessary to support the results presented herein, and to properly assess and reduce hazard related to debris flows.

Description: In this paper we produce projections of seasonal precipitation for four Mediterranean areas: Apulia region (Italy), Ebro river basin (Spain), Po valley (Italy) and Antalya province (Turkey). We performed the statistical downscaling using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in two versions: in one case Principal Component Analysis (PCA) filter is applied only to predictor and in the other to both predictor and predictand. After performing a validation test, CCA after PCA filter on both predictor and predictand has been chosen. Sea level pressure (SLP) is used as predictor. Downscaling has been carried out for the scenarios A2 and B2 on the basis of three GCM's: the CCCma-GCM2, the Csiro-MK2 and HadCM3. Three consecutive 30-year periods have been considered. For Summer precipitation in Apulia region we also use the 500 hPa temperature (T500) as predictor, obtaining comparable results. Results show different climate change signals in the four areas and confirm the need of an analysis that is capable of resolving internal differences within the Mediterranean region. The most robust signal is the reduction of Summer precipitation in the Ebro river basin. Other significative results are the increase of precipitation over Apulia in Summer, the reduction over the Po-valley in Spring and Autumn and the increase over the Antalya province in Summer and Autumn.

Description: Earthquake history shows that the Sunda subduction zone of the Indonesian margin produces great earthquakes offshore Sumatra, whereas earthquakes of comparable magnitude are lacking offshore Java and the Lesser Sunda islands. Morphological structures in multibeam bathymetric data across the forearc relate with the extent of the seismogenic zone. Its updip limit corresponds to the slope break, most distinct off Java and Lesser Sunda islands, where we find coincident narrow, uniform, continuous outer arc ridges. Their landward termination and a shallow upper plate mantle mark the downdip limit of the seismogenic zone. In contrast the outer arc ridges off Sumatra are wider and partly elevated above sea level forming the forearc islands. The downdip limit of the seismogenic zone coincides with a deeper upper plate mantle. Sunda Strait marks a transition zone between the Sumatra and Java margins. We find the differences along the Sunda margin, especially the wider extent of the seismogenic zone off Sumatra, producing larger earthquakes, to result from the interaction of different age and subduction direction of the oceanic plate. We attribute a major role to the sediment income and continental/oceanic upper plate nature of Sumatra/Java influencing the composition and deformation style along the forearc and subduction fault.

Description: A possible geophysical mechanism based on the conception of criticality and on new aspects of biological effects caused by electromagnetic fields is discussed as a stimulus to the unusual animal behavior prior to large earthquakes. This mechanism is related to transient electric signals of low frequency and intensity, which are emitted from the pre-focal area several days before the impending earthquake and fulfill all the conditions set by a recent bioeffect model.

Description: Complex application domains involve difficult pattern classification problems. This paper introduces a model of MMI attenuation and its dependence on engineering ground motion parameters based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) and genetic algorithms (GAs). The ultimate goal of this investigation is to evaluate the target-region applicability of ground-motion attenuation relations developed for a host region based on training an ANN using the seismic patterns of the host region. This ANN learning is based on supervised learning using existing data from past earthquakes. The combination of these two learning procedures (that is, GA and ANN) allows us to introduce a new method for pattern recognition in the context of seismological applications. The performance of this new GA-ANN regression method has been evaluated using a Greek seismological database with satisfactory results.

Description: On 28 January 2009, a large debris slide was triggered by prolonged rainfalls at the southern suburbs of San Benedetto Ullano (Northern Calabria). The slope movement affected fractured and weathered migmatitic gneiss and biotitic schist, and included a pre-existing landslide. A detailed geomorphologic field survey, carried out during the whole phase of mobilization, allowed to recognize the evolution of the phenomenon. A set of datum points was located along the borders of the landslide and frequent hand-made measurements of surface displacements were performed. Since 11 February, a basic real-time monitoring system of meteoric parameters and of surface displacements, measured by means of high-precision extensometers, was also implemented. Based on the data gained through the monitoring system, and on field surveying, a basic support system for emergency management could be defined since the first phases of activation of the phenomenon. The evolution of the landslide was monitored during the following months: as a consequence, evidence of retrogressive distribution could be recognized, with initial activation in the middle sector of the slope, where new temporary springs were observed. During early May, the activity reduced to displacements of a few millimetres per month and the geo-hydrological crisis seemed to be concluded. Afterwards, the geological scheme of the slope was refined based on the data collected through a set of explorative boreholes, equipped with inclinometers and piezometers: according to the stratigraphic and inclinometric data, the depth of the mobilized body resulted in varying between 15 and 35 m along a longitudinal section. A parametric limit equilibrium analysis was carried out to explore the stability conditions of the slope affected by the landslide as well as to quantify the role of the water table in destabilizing the slope. The interpretation of the process based on field observations was confirmed by the limit equilibrium analysis: the first activation of the landslide was, in fact, to be expected in the middle portion of the slope, provided that the groundwater levels approximate the ground surface in the same sector. On 1 February 2010, another remarkable phase of landslide mobilization began, following a new period of exceptional and prolonged rainfalls. On 11 February, an abrupt stage of slope acceleration was observed, after further extraordinary rainfalls. The slope movement essentially replicated the phases of mobilization observed on 28 January 2009, thus confirming the results of the limit equilibrium analysis. Based on the outcomes of the parametric analysis, the support system for emergency management could then be tentatively refined on a more physical basis.

Description: In the context of wave climate variability, long-term alterations in the wave storminess pattern of the Catalan coast (northwestern Mediterranean Sea) are analysed in terms of wave energy content and wave direction, on the basis of wave hindcast data (from 44-year time series). In general, no significant temporal trends are found for annual mean and maximum energy. However, the same analysis carried out separately for different wave directions reveals a remarkable increase in the storm energy of events from the south, which is partly due to a rise in the annual percentage of such storms. A case study of Tarragona Port (on the southern Catalan coast) highlights the importance of including changes in wave direction in the study of potential impacts of climate change. In particular, an increase in the frequency of storms from the south leads to greater agitation inside the Port.

Description: In the past two decades, episodes of flooding on the coast of Alicante (Spain) have led to substantial losses in human life in economic terms. With increased exposure to these phenomena comes also increased vulnerability. Given the various effects of flooding in areas of similar exposure, differences in vulnerability across regions at risk need to be analysed also in terms of the socioeconomic factors of the groups of society that may be affected, and of their perception of risk. This paper studies the increased risk of flooding in three locations on the Alicante coast as a result of urban occupation of areas subject to this hazard. The consequences of the most recent episodes in this area are analysed and a risk assessment, using survey-based research in the affected areas, is performed.

Description: The impact of ash-fall on people, buildings, crops, water resources, and infrastructure depends on several factors such as the thickness of the deposits, grain size distribution and others. Preparedness against tephra falls over large regions around an active volcano requires an understanding of all processes controlling those factors, and a working model capable of predicting at least some of them. However, the complexity of tephra dispersion and sedimentation makes the search of an integral solution an almost unapproachable problem in the absence of highly efficient computing facilities due to the large number of equations and unknown parameters that control the process. An alternative attempt is made here to address the problem of modeling the thickness of ash deposits as a primary impact factor that can be easily communicated to the public and decision-makers. We develop a semi-empirical inversion model to estimate the thickness of non-compacted deposits produced by an explosive eruption around a volcano in the distance range 4–150 km from the eruptive source. The model was elaborated from the analysis of the geometric distribution of deposit thickness of 14 world-wide well-documented eruptions. The model was initially developed to depict deposits of potential eruptions of Popocatépetl and Colima volcanoes in México, but it can be applied to any volcano. It has been designed to provide planners and Civil Protection authorities of an accurate perception of the ash-fall deposit thickness that may be expected for different eruption scenarios. The model needs to be fed with a few easy-to-obtain parameters, namely, height of the eruptive column, duration of the explosive phase, and wind speed and direction, and its simplicity allows it to run in any platform, including a personal computers and even a notebook. The results may be represented as tables, two dimensional thickness-distance plots, or isopach maps using any available graphic interface. The model has been tested, with available data from some recent eruptions in México, and permits to generate ash-fall deposit scenarios from new situations, or to recreate past situations, or to superimpose scenarios from eruptions of other volcanoes. The results may be displayed as thickness vs. distance plots, or as deposit-thickness scenarios superimposed on a regional map by means of a visual computer simulator based on a user-friendly built-in computer graphic interface.