ALBERT

Description: Numerical simulations of the Cordilleran ice sheet through the last glacial cycle The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4147-4203, 2015 Author(s): J. Seguinot, I. Rogozhina, A. P. Stroeven, M. Margold, and J. Kleman Despite more than a century of geological observations, the Cordilleran ice sheet of North America remains poorly understood in terms of its former extent, volume and dynamics. Although geomorphological evidence is abundant, its complexity is such that whole ice-sheet reconstructions of advance and retreat patterns are lacking. Here we use a numerical ice sheet model calibrated against field-based evidence to attempt a quantitative reconstruction of the Cordilleran ice sheet history through the last glacial cycle. A series of simulations is driven by time-dependent temperature offsets from six proxy records located around the globe. Although this approach reveals large variations in model response to evolving climate forcing, all simulations produce two major glaciations during marine oxygen isotope stages 4 (61.9–56.5 ka) and 2 (23.2–16.8 ka). The timing of glaciation is better reproduced using temperature reconstructions from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores than from regional oceanic sediment cores. During most of the last glacial cycle, the modelled ice cover is discontinuous and restricted to high mountain areas. However, widespread precipitation over the Skeena Mountains favours the persistence of a central ice dome throughout the glacial cycle. It acts as a nucleation centre before the Last Glacial Maximum and hosts the last remains of Cordilleran ice until the middle Holocene (6.6–6.2 ka).

Description: Statistical detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1757-1761, 2015 Author(s): M. Raschke In this communication, I improve the detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence. For this purpose, the generalized Poisson distribution and the Bayesian information criterion are introduced; the latter is used for statistical model selection. Moreover, I replace the frequently used dispersion statistics by an over-dispersion parameter which does not depend on the considered return period of storm events. These models and methods are applied in order to properly detect the over-dispersion in winter storm data for Germany, carrying out a joint estimation of the distribution models for different samples.

Description: Impacts on wave-driven harbour agitation due to climate change in Catalan ports Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1695-1709, 2015 Author(s): J. P. Sierra, M. Casas-Prat, M. Virgili, C. Mösso, and A. Sánchez-Arcilla The objective of the present work is to analyse how changes in wave patterns due to the effect of climate change can affect harbour agitation (oscillations within the port due to wind waves). The study focuses on 13 harbours located on the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean) using a methodology with general applicability. To obtain the patterns of agitation, a Boussinesq-type model is used, which is forced at the boundaries by present/future offshore wave conditions extracted from recently developed high-resolution wave projections in the NW Mediterranean. These wave projections were obtained with the SWAN model forced by present/future surface wind fields projected, respectively, by five different combinations of global and regional circulation models (GCMs and RCMs) for the A1B scenario. The results show a general slight reduction in the annual average agitation for most of the ports, except for the northernmost and southernmost areas of the region, where a slight increase is obtained. A seasonal analysis reveals that the tendency to decrease is accentuated in winter. However, the inter-model variability is large for both the winter and the annual analysis. Conversely, a general increase with a larger agreement among models is found during summer, which is the period with greater activity in most of the studied ports (marinas). A qualitative assessment of the factors of variability seems to indicate that the choice of GCM tends to affect the spatial pattern, whereas the choice of RCM induces a more homogeneous bias over the regional domain.

Description: Utilisation of CryoSat-2 SAR altimeter in operational ice charting The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4117-4145, 2015 Author(s): E. Rinne and M. Similä We present methods to utilise Cryosat-2 (CS-2) Synthetic Aperture (SAR) mode data in operational ice charting. We compare CS-2 data qualitatively to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) mosaics over Barents and Kara seas. Furthermore, we compare the CS-2 to archived operational ice charts. We present distributions of four CS-2 waveform parameters for different ice types as presented in the ice charts. We go on to present an automatic classification method for CS-2 data which, after training with operational ice charts, is capable of determining open water from ice with a hit rate of 〉 90 %. The training data is dynamically updated every five days using the most recent 15 days CS-2 data and operative ice charts. This helps the adaption of the classifier to the evolving ice/snow conditions throughout winter. The classifier is also capable of detecting three different ice classes (thin and thick first year ice as well as old ice) with success rates good enough for the output to be usable to support operational ice charting. Finally, we present a near real time CS-2 product just plotting the waveform characteristics and conclude that even such a simple product is usable for some of the needs of ice charting.

Description: Long-term coastal-polynya dynamics in the Southern Weddell Sea from MODIS thermal-infrared imagery The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 3959-3993, 2015 Author(s): S. Paul, S. Willmes, and G. Heinemann Based upon high-resolution thermal-infrared Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery in combination with ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis data, we derived long-term polynya parameters such as polynya area, thin-ice thickness distribution and ice-production rates from daily cloud-cover corrected thin-ice thickness composites. Our study is based on a thirteen year investigation period (2002–2014) for the austral winter (1 April to 30 September) in the Antarctic Southern Weddell Sea. The focus lies on coastal polynyas which are important hot spots for new-ice formation, bottom-water formation and heat/moisture release into the atmosphere. MODIS has the capability to resolve even very narrow coastal polynyas. Its major disadvantage is the sensor limitation due to cloud cover. We make use of a newly developed and adapted spatial feature reconstruction scheme to account for cloud-covered areas. We find the sea-ice areas in front of Ronne and Brunt Ice Shelf to be the most active with an annual average polynya area of 3018 ± 1298 and 3516 ± 1420 km 2 as well as an accumulated volume ice production of 31 ± 13 and 31 ± 12 km 3 , respectively. For the remaining four regions, estimates amount to 421 ± 294 km 2 and 4 ± 3 km 3 (Antarctic Peninsula), 1148 ± 432 km 2 and 12 ± 5 km 3 (Iceberg A23A), 901 ± 703 km 2 and 10 ± 8 km 3 (Filchner Ice Shelf) as well as 499 ± 277 km 2 and 5 ± 2 km 3 (Coats Land). Our findings are discussed in comparison to recent studies based on coupled sea-ice/ocean models and passive-microwave satellite imagery, each investigating different parts of the Southern Weddell Sea.

Description: Climatic controls and climate proxy potential of Lewis Glacier, Mt Kenya The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 3887-3924, 2015 Author(s): R. Prinz, L. I. Nicholson, T. Mölg, W. Gurgiser, and G. Kaser The Lewis Glacier on Mt Kenya is one of the best studied tropical glaciers and has experienced considerable retreat since a maximum extent in the late 19th century (L19). From distributed mass and energy balance modelling, this study evaluates the current sensitivity of the surface mass and energy balance to climatic drivers, explores climate conditions under which the L19 maximum extent might have sustained, and discusses the potential for using the glacier retreat to quantify climate change. Multiyear meteorological measurements at 4828 m provide data for input, optimization and evaluation of a spatially distributed glacier mass balance model to quantify the exchanges of energy and mass at the glacier–atmosphere interface. Currently the glacier loses mass due to the imbalance between insufficient accumulation and enhanced melt, because radiative energy gains cannot be compensated by turbulent energy sinks. Exchanging model input data with synthetic climate scenarios, which were sampled from the meteorological measurements and account for coupled climatic variable perturbations, reveal that the current mass balance is most sensitive to changes in atmospheric moisture (via its impact on solid precipitation, cloudiness and surface albedo). Positive mass balances result from scenarios with an increase of annual (seasonal) accumulation of 30 % (100 %), compared to values observed today, without significant changes in air temperature required. Scenarios with lower air temperatures are drier and associated with lower accumulation and increased net radiation due to reduced cloudiness and albedo. If the scenarios currently producing positive mass balances are applied to the L19 extent, negative mass balances are the result, meaning that the conditions required to sustain the glacier in its L19 extent are not reflected in today's observations. Alternatively, a balanced mass budget for the L19 extent can be explained by changing model parameters that imply a distinctly different coupling between the glacier's local surface-air layer and its surrounding boundary-layer. This result underlines the difficulty of deriving paleoclimates for larger glacier extents on the basis of modern measurements of small glaciers.

Description: Towards predictive data-driven simulations of wildfire spread – Part II: Ensemble Kalman Filter for the state estimation of a front-tracking simulator of wildfire spread Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1721-1739, 2015 Author(s): M. C. Rochoux, C. Emery, S. Ricci, B. Cuenot, and A. Trouvé This paper is the second part in a series of two articles, which aims at presenting a data-driven modeling strategy for forecasting wildfire spread scenarios based on the assimilation of the observed fire front location and on the sequential correction of model parameters or model state. This model relies on an estimation of the local rate of fire spread (ROS) as a function of environmental conditions based on Rothermel's semi-empirical formulation, in order to propagate the fire front with an Eulerian front-tracking simulator. In Part I, a data assimilation (DA) system based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was implemented to provide a spatially uniform correction of biomass fuel and wind parameters and thereby, produce an improved forecast of the wildfire behavior (addressing uncertainties in the input parameters of the ROS model only). In Part II, the objective of the EnKF algorithm is to sequentially update the two-dimensional coordinates of the markers along the discretized fire front, in order to provide a spatially distributed correction of the fire front location and thereby, a more reliable initial condition for further model time-integration (addressing all sources of uncertainties in the ROS model). The resulting prototype data-driven wildfire spread simulator is first evaluated in a series of verification tests using synthetically generated observations; tests include representative cases with spatially varying biomass properties and temporally varying wind conditions. In order to properly account for uncertainties during the EnKF update step and to accurately represent error correlations along the fireline, it is shown that members of the EnKF ensemble must be generated through variations in estimates of the fire's initial location as well as through variations in the parameters of the ROS model. The performance of the prototype simulator based on state estimation (SE) or parameter estimation (PE) is then evaluated by comparison with data taken from a reduced-scale controlled grassland fire experiment. Results indicate that data-driven simulations are capable of correcting inaccurate predictions of the fire front location and of subsequently providing an optimized forecast of the wildfire behavior at future lead times. The complementary benefits of both PE and SE approaches, in terms of analysis and forecast performance, are also emphasized. In particular, it is found that the size of the assimilation window must be specified adequately with the persistence of the model initial condition and/or with the temporal and spatial variability of the environmental conditions in order to track sudden changes in wildfire behavior. The present prototype data-driven forecast system is still at an early stage of development. In this regard, this preliminary investigation provides valuable information on how to combine observations with a fire spread model in an efficient way, as well as guidelines to design the future system evolution in order to meet the operational requirements of wildfire spread monitoring.

Description: A method for predicting the factor of safety of an infinite slope based on the depth ratio of the wetting front induced by rainfall infiltration Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1835-1849, 2015 Author(s): B.-G. Chae, J.-H. Lee, H.-J. Park, and J. Choi Most landslides in Korea are classified as shallow landslides with an average depth of less than 2 m. These shallow landslides are associated with the advance of a wetting front in the unsaturated soil due to rainfall infiltration, which results in an increase in water content and a reduction in the matric suction in the soil. Therefore, this study presents a modified equation of infinite slope stability analysis based on the concept of the saturation depth ratio to analyze the slope stability change associated with the rainfall on a slope. A rainfall infiltration test in unsaturated soil was performed using a column to develop an understanding of the effect of the saturation depth ratio following rainfall infiltration. The results indicated that the rainfall infiltration velocity due to the increase in rainfall in the soil layer was faster when the rainfall intensity increased. In addition, the rainfall infiltration velocity tends to decrease with increases in the unit weight of soil. The proposed model was applied to assess its feasibility and to develop a regional landslide susceptibility map using a geographic information system (GIS). For that purpose, spatial databases for input parameters were constructed and landslide locations were obtained. In order to validate the proposed approach, the results of the proposed approach were compared with the landslide inventory using a ROC (receiver operating characteristics) graph. In addition, the results of the proposed approach were compared with the previous approach used: a steady-state hydrological model. Consequently, the approach proposed in this study displayed satisfactory performance in classifying landslide susceptibility and showed better performance than the steady-state approach.

Description: Regional trends and controlling factors of fatal landslides in Latin America and the Caribbean Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1821-1833, 2015 Author(s): S. A. Sepúlveda and D. N. Petley A new data set of landslides that caused loss of life in Latin America and the Caribbean in the 10-year period from 2004 and 2013 inclusive has been compiled, providing new insight into the impact of landslides in this key part of the world. This data set indicates that in the 10-year period a total of 11 631 people lost their lives across the region in 611 landslides. The geographical distribution of the landslides is highly heterogeneous, with areas of high incidence in parts of the Caribbean (most notably Haiti), Central America, Colombia, and southeast Brazil. There is significant interannual variation in the number of landslides, with the El Niño/La Niña cycle emerging as a key control. Our analysis suggests that on a continental scale the mapped factors that best explain the observed distribution are topography, annual precipitation and population density. On a national basis we have compared the occurrence of fatality-inducing landslide occurrence with the production of locally authored research articles, demonstrating that there is a landslide research deficit in Latin America and the Caribbean. Understanding better the mechanisms, distribution causes and triggers of landslides in Latin America and the Caribbean must be an essential first step towards managing the hazard.

Description: Drought assessment in the Dongliao River basin: traditional approaches vs. generalized drought assessment index based on water resources systems Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1889-1906, 2015 Author(s): B. S. Weng, D. H. Yan, H. Wang, J. H. Liu, Z. Y. Yang, T. L. Qin, and J. Yin Drought is firstly a resource issue, and with its development it evolves into a disaster issue. Drought events usually occur in a determinate but a random manner. Drought has become one of the major factors to affect sustainable socioeconomic development. In this paper, we propose the generalized drought assessment index (GDAI) based on water resources systems for assessing drought events. The GDAI considers water supply and water demand using a distributed hydrological model. We demonstrate the use of the proposed index in the Dongliao River basin in northeastern China. The results simulated by the GDAI are compared to observed drought disaster records in the Dongliao River basin. In addition, the temporal distribution of drought events and the spatial distribution of drought frequency from the GDAI are compared with the traditional approaches in general (i.e., standard precipitation index, Palmer drought severity index and rate of water deficit index). Then, generalized drought times, generalized drought duration, and generalized drought severity were calculated by theory of runs. Application of said runs at various drought levels (i.e., mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought) during the period 1960–2010 shows that the centers of gravity of them all distribute in the middle reaches of Dongliao River basin, and change with time. The proposed methodology may help water managers in water-stressed regions to quantify the impact of drought, and consequently, to make decisions for coping with drought.

Description: The electrical self-potential method is a non-intrusive snow-hydrological sensor The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4437-4457, 2015 Author(s): S. S. Thompson, B. Kulessa, R. L. H. Essery, and M. P. Lüthi Our ability to measure, quantify and assimilate hydrological properties and processes of snow in operational models is disproportionally poor compared to the significance of seasonal snowmelt as a global water resource and major risk factor in flood and avalanche forecasting. Encouraged by recent theoretical, modelling and laboratory work, we show here that the diurnal evolution of aerially-distributed self-potential magnitudes closely track those of bulk meltwater fluxes in melting in-situ snowpacks at Rhone and Jungfraujoch glaciers, Switzerland. Numerical modelling infers temporally-evolving liquid water contents in the snowpacks on successive days in close agreement with snow-pit measurements. Muting previous concerns, the governing physical and chemical properties of snow and meltwater became temporally invariant for modelling purposes. Because measurement procedure is straightforward and readily automated for continuous monitoring over significant spatial scales, we conclude that the self-potential geophysical method is a highly-promising non-intrusive snow-hydrological sensor for measurement practice, modelling and operational snow forecasting.

Description: Tilt error in cryospheric surface radiation measurements at high latitudes: a model study The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4355-4376, 2015 Author(s): W. S. Bogren, J. F. Burkhart, and A. Kylling We have evaluated the magnitude and makeup of error in cryospheric radiation observations due to small sensor misalignment in in-situ measurements of solar irradiance. This error is examined through simulation of diffuse and direct irradiance arriving at a detector with a cosine-response foreoptic. Emphasis is placed on assessing total error over the solar shortwave spectrum from 250 to 4500 nm, as well as supporting investigation over other relevant shortwave spectral ranges. The total measurement error introduced by sensor tilt is dominated by the direct component. For a typical high latitude albedo measurement with a solar zenith angle of 60°, a sensor tilted by 1, 3, and 5° can respectively introduce up to 2.6, 7.7, and 12.8 % error into the measured irradiance and similar errors in the derived albedo. Depending on the daily range of solar azimuth and zenith angles, significant measurement error can persist also in integrated daily irradiance and albedo.

Description: Hydroelastic analysis of ice shelves under long wave excitation Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1851-1857, 2015 Author(s): T. K. Papathanasiou, A. E. Karperaki, E. E. Theotokoglou, and K. A. Belibassakis The transient hydroelastic response of an ice shelf under long wave excitation is analysed by means of the finite element method. The simple model, presented in this work, is used for the simulation of the generated kinematic and stress fields in an ice shelf, when the latter interacts with a tsunami wave. The ice shelf, being of large length compared to its thickness, is modelled as an elastic Euler-Bernoulli beam, constrained at the grounding line. The hydrodynamic field is represented by the linearised shallow water equations. The numerical solution is based on the development of a special hydroelastic finite element for the system of governing of equations. Motivated by the 2011 Sulzberger Ice Shelf (SIS) calving event and its correlation with the Honshu Tsunami, the SIS stable configuration is studied. The extreme values of the bending moment distribution in both space and time are examined. Finally, the location of these extrema is investigated for different values of ice shelf thickness and tsunami wave length.

Description: Pre-earthquake magnetic pulses Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1873-1880, 2015 Author(s): J. Scoville, J. Heraud, and F. Freund A semiconductor model of rocks is shown to describe unipolar magnetic pulses, a phenomenon that has been observed prior to earthquakes. These pulses are suspected to be generated deep in the Earth's crust, in and around the hypocentral volume, days or even weeks before earthquakes. Their extremely long wavelength allows them to pass through kilometers of rock. Interestingly, when the sources of these pulses are triangulated, the locations coincide with the epicenters of future earthquakes. We couple a drift-diffusion semiconductor model to a magnetic field in order to describe the electromagnetic effects associated with electrical currents flowing within rocks. The resulting system of equations is solved numerically and it is seen that a volume of rock may act as a diode that produces transient currents when it switches bias. These unidirectional currents are expected to produce transient unipolar magnetic pulses similar in form, amplitude, and duration to those observed before earthquakes, and this suggests that the pulses could be the result of geophysical semiconductor processes.

Description: Halogen-based reconstruction of Russian Arctic sea ice area from the Akademii Nauk ice core (Severnaya Zemlya) The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4407-4436, 2015 Author(s): A. Spolaor, T. Opel, J. R. McConnell, O. J. Maselli, G. Spreen, C. Varin, T. Kirchgeorg, D. Fritzsche, and P. Vallelonga The role of sea ice in the Earth climate system is still under debate, although it is known to influence albedo, ocean circulation, and atmosphere-ocean heat and gas exchange. Here we present a reconstruction of AD 1950 to 1998 sea ice in the Laptev Sea based on the Akademii Nauk ice core (Severnaya Zemlya, Russian Arctic). The halogens bromine (Br) and iodine (I) are strongly influenced by sea ice processes. Bromine reacts with the sea ice surface in auto-catalyzing "Bromine explosion" events causing an enrichment of the Br / Na ratio and the bromine excess (Br exc ) in snow compared to that in seawater. Iodine is emitted from algal communities growing under sea ice. The results suggest a connection between Br exc and spring sea ice area, as well as a connection between iodine concentration and summer sea ice area. These two halogens are therefore good candidates for extended reconstructions of past sea ice changes in the Arctic.

Description: Mediterranean cyclone characteristics related to precipitation occurrence in Crete, Greece Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1807-1819, 2015 Author(s): V. Iordanidou, A. G. Koutroulis, and I. K. Tsanis The characteristics of the cyclone tracks that caused precipitation events of variable intensity for the period 1979–2011 over the island of Crete are presented. The data set used for cyclone identification is the 0.5° × 0.5°, 30 years European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim mean sea-level pressure. Cyclone characteristics are calculated with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS scheme). Daily precipitation data from a dense gauging network over the island of Crete are also used for the classification of the precipitation events in terms of rain accumulation (intensity). Daily precipitation is classified in three categories and the associated cyclones are chosen according to their distance from Crete island. The seasonal and annual cycle of the physical characteristics of the cyclone tracks are investigated with respect to the cyclones' relative position to the island of Crete. It was found that cyclones affecting Crete most frequently approach from the western side of the island and the actual cyclone centers associated with precipitation events are usually located northwest and southeast of the Crete domain. Cyclone-induced rainfall increases in function to cyclones' depth, radius and propagation velocity increase as well as cyclones' pressure decrease. Spring cyclones that affect Crete with rainfall present lower pressures and higher cyclone propagation velocity in contrast to the ones associated with winter and autumn precipitation events. The examination of the relation between cyclone characteristics and precipitation occurrence provides valuable information related to forecasting potential and management of the water resources and the rainfall extremes.

Description: Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1711-1720, 2015 Author(s): Y. Krien, B. Dudon, J. Roger, and N. Zahibo Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100-year and 1000-year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC–SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40–60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but found to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows storm surge level maps to be obtained that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

Description: Hydrochemical characteristics of hot spring waters in the Kangding district related to the Lushan M S = 7.0 earthquake in Sichuan, China Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1149-1156, 2015 Author(s): Z. Chen, X. Zhou, J. Du, C. Xie, L. Liu, Y. Li, L. Yi, H. Liu, and Y. Cui Hydrogeochemistry of 10 hot springs in the Kangding district was investigated by analyzing cation and anion concentrations in the spring water. The water samples were collected in the 5 days after the Lushan M S = 7.0 earthquake, which occurred on 20 April 2013. The spring waters are classified into seven chemical types based on their hydrochemical compositions. Compared with hydrochemical data before the Lushan earthquake, concentrations of Ca 2+ , HCO 3 - and total dissolved solid (TDS) in water samples from the Guanding, Erdaoqiao, Gonghe, Erhaoying, Tianwanhe and Caoke springs significantly increased, which may be the result of a greater increase in groundwater from carbonate rocks, and water–carbonate rock interactions, enhanced by the increment of CO 2 . Concentrations of Na + , Cl - and SO 4 2- in water samples from the Guanding, Zheduotang, Xinxing and Gonghe springs decreased, indicating a dilution of shallow waters. Concentrations of Na + and SO 4 2- in water samples from the Erhaoying spring water increased, which may be attributed to water–granite interactions enhanced by H 2 S. The results indicated that hydrochemical components of spring water could be used as an effective indicator for earthquakes.

Description: Preface: Current advances in analysis, modelling and mitigation of the costs of natural hazards Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1157-1162, 2015 Author(s): H. Kreibich, L. M. Bouwer, and R. Schwarze

Description: How historical information can improve estimation and prediction of extreme coastal water levels: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1135-1147, 2015 Author(s): T. Bulteau, D. Idier, J. Lambert, and M. Garcin The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide-gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces the issue of outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others which increase the uncertainty on the results. In this study, we investigate how historical information, even partial, of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativise such outlying observations. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is developed to tackle this issue. We apply this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide-gauge measurements and 8 historical events, the analysis shows that (1) integrating historical information in the analysis greatly reduces statistical uncertainties on return levels (2) Xynthia's water level no longer appears as an outlier, (3) we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data until the end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data until the end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.

Description: READY: a web-based geographical information system for enhanced flood resilience through raising awareness in citizens Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1645-1658, 2015 Author(s): R. Albano, A. Sole, and J. Adamowski As evidenced by the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), flood management strategies in Europe have undergone a shift in focus in recent years. The goal of flood prevention using structural measures has been replaced by an emphasis on the management of flood risks using non-structural measures. One implication of this is that public authorities alone not only take responsibility for flood management. A broader range of stakeholders, who may personally experience the negative effects of flooding, also take on responsibility for protecting themselves. Therefore, it is vital that information concerning flood risks is conveyed to those who may be affected in order to facilitate the self-protection of citizens. Experience shows that problems persist even where efforts have been made to communicate flood risks. There is a need for the development of new tools that are able to rapidly disseminate flood-risk information to the general public. To be useful these tools must be able to present information relevant to the location of the user. Moreover, the content and design of the tool need to be adjusted to laypeople's needs. Dissemination and communication influence both people's access to and understanding of natural risk information. Such a tool could be a useful aid to effective management of flood risks. To address this gap, a web-based geographical information system (WebGIS) has been developed through the collaborative efforts of a group of scientists, hazard and risk analysts and managers, GIS analysts, system developers and communication designers. This tool, called "READY: Risk, Extreme Events, Adaptation, Defend Yourself", aims to enhance the general public knowledge of flood risk, making citizens more capable of responding appropriately during a flood event. The READY WebGIS has allowed for the visualization and easy querying of a complex hazard and risk database thanks to a high degree of interactivity and easily read maps. In this way, READY has enabled fast exploration of alternative flood scenarios or past calamitous events. Combined also with a system of graphic symbols designed ad hoc for communication of self-protection behaviours, it is believed READY could lead to an increase in citizen participation, informed discussion and consensus building. The platform has been developed for a site-specific application: the Basilicata region, Italy, has been selected as pilot application area. The goal of the prototype is to raise citizen awareness of flood risks and to build social capacity and enhanced resilience to flood events.

Description: A moving point approach to model shallow ice sheets: a study case with radially-symmetrical ice sheets The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4237-4270, 2015 Author(s): B. Bonan, M. J. Baines, N. K. Nichols, and D. Partridge Predicting the evolution of ice sheets requires numerical models able to accurately track the migration of ice sheet continental margins or grounding lines. We introduce a physically-based moving point approach for the flow of ice sheets based on the conservation of local masses. This allows the ice sheet margins to be tracked explicitly and the waiting time behaviours to be modelled efficiently. A finite difference moving point scheme is derived and applied in a simplified context (continental radially-symmetrical shallow ice approximation). The scheme, which is inexpensive, is validated by comparing the results with moving-margin exact solutions and steady states. In both cases the scheme is able to track the position of the ice sheet margin with high precision.

Description: Fram Strait spring ice export and September Arctic sea ice The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4205-4235, 2015 Author(s): M. H. Halvorsen, L. H. Smedsrud, R. Zhang, and K. Kloster The Arctic Basin exports ~ 10 % of the sea ice area southwards annually through Fram Strait. A larger than normal export decreases the remaining mean thickness and ice area. A new updated timeseries from 1979–2013 of Fram Strait sea ice area export shows an overall increase until today, and that more than 1 million km 2 has been exported annually in recent years. The new timeseries has been constructed from high resolution radar satellite imagery of sea ice drift across 79° N from 2004–2013, regressed on the observed cross-strait surface pressure difference, and shows an increasing trend of 7 % per decade. The trend is caused by higher southward ice drift speeds due to stronger southward geostrophic winds, largely explained by increasing surface pressure on Greenland. Spring and summer area export increases more (~ 14 % per decade) than in autumn and winter, and these export anomalies have a large influence on the following September mean ice extent.

Description: Scenario-based numerical modelling and the palaeo-historic record of tsunamis in Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1763-1784, 2015 Author(s): G. Lamarche, S. Popinet, B. Pelletier, J. Mountjoy, J. Goff, S. Delaux, and J. Bind We investigated the tsunami hazard in the remote French territory of Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific, using the Gerris flow solver to produce numerical models of tsunami generation, propagation and inundation. Wallis consists of the inhabited volcanic island of Uvéa that is surrounded by a lagoon delimited by a barrier reef. Futuna and the island of Alofi form the Horn Archipelago located ca. 240 km east of Wallis. They are surrounded by a narrow fringing reef. Futuna and Alofi emerge from the North Fiji Transform Fault that marks the seismically active Pacific-Australia plate boundary. We generated 15 tsunami scenarios. For each, we calculated maximum wave elevation (MWE), inundation distance and expected time of arrival (ETA). The tsunami sources were local, regional and distant earthquake faults located along the Pacific Rim. In Wallis, the outer reef may experience 6.8 m-high MWE. Uvéa is protected by the barrier reef and the lagoon, but inundation depths of 2–3 m occur in several coastal areas. In Futuna, flow depths exceeding 2 m are modelled in several populated areas, and have been confirmed by a post-September 2009 South Pacific tsunami survey. The channel between the islands of Futuna and Alofi amplified the 2009 tsunami, which resulted in inundation distance of almost 100 m and MWE of 4.4 m. This first ever tsunami hazard modelling study of Wallis and Futuna compares well with palaeotsunamis recognised on both islands and observation of the impact of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami. The study provides evidence for the mitigating effect of barrier and fringing reefs from tsunamis.

Description: Predicting storm-triggered debris flow events: application to the 2009 Ionian Peloritan disaster (Sicily, Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1785-1806, 2015 Author(s): M. Cama, L. Lombardo, C. Conoscenti, V. Agnesi, and E. Rotigliano The main assumption on which landslide susceptibility assessment by means of stochastic modelling lies is that the past is the key to the future. As a consequence, a stochastic model able to classify past known landslide events should be able to predict a future unknown scenario as well. However, storm-triggered multiple debris flow events in the Mediterranean region could pose some limits on the operative validity of such an expectation, as they are typically resultant of a randomness in time recurrence and magnitude and a great spatial variability, even at the scale of small catchments. This is the case for the 2007 and 2009 storm events, which recently hit north-eastern Sicily with different intensities, resulting in largely different disaster scenarios. The study area is the small catchment of the Itala torrent (10 km 2 ), which drains from the southern Peloritani Mountains eastward to the Ionian Sea, in the territory of the Messina province (Sicily, Italy). Landslides have been mapped by integrating remote and field surveys, producing two event inventories which include 73 debris flows, activated in 2007, and 616 debris flows, triggered by the 2009 storm. Logistic regression was applied in order to obtain susceptibility models which utilize a set of predictors derived from a 2 m cell digital elevation model and a 1 : 50 000 scale geologic map. The research topic was explored by performing two types of validation procedures: self-validation, based on the random partition of each event inventory, and chrono-validation, based on the time partition of the landslide inventory. It was therefore possible to analyse and compare the performances both of the 2007 calibrated model in predicting the 2009 debris flows (forward chrono-validation), and vice versa of the 2009 calibrated model in predicting the 2007 debris flows (backward chrono-validation). Both of the two predictions resulted in largely acceptable performances in terms of fitting, skill and reliability. However, a loss of performance and differences in the selected predictors arose between the self-validated and the chrono-validated models. These are interpreted as effects of the non-linearity in the domain of the trigger intensity of the relationships between predictors and slope response, as well as in terms of the different spatial paths of the two triggering storms at the catchment scale.

Description: Tomography-based observation of sublimation and snow metamorphism under temperature gradient and advective flow The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4845-4864, 2015 Author(s): P. P. Ebner, M. Schneebeli, and A. Steinfeld Snow at or close to the surface commonly undergoes temperature gradient metamorphism under advective flow, which alters its microstructure and physical properties. Time-lapse X-ray micro-tomography is applied to investigate the structural dynamics of temperature gradient snow metamorphism exposed to an advective airflow in controlled laboratory conditions. The sublimation of water vapor for saturated air flowing across the snow sample was experimentally determined via variations of the porous ice structure. The results showed that the exothermic gas-to-solid phase change is favorable vis-a-vis the endothermic solid-to-gas phase change, thus leading to more ice deposition than ice sublimation. Sublimation has a marked effect on the structural change of the ice matrix but diffusion of water vapor in the direction of the temperature gradient counteracted the mass transport of advection. Therefore, the total net ice change was negligible leading to a constant porosity profile. However, the strong reposition process of water molecules on the ice grains is relevant for atmospheric chemistry.

Description: Glacier dynamics over the last quarter of a century at Jakobshavn Isbræ The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4865-4892, 2015 Author(s): I. S. Muresan, S. A. Khan, A. Aschwanden, C. Khroulev, T. Van Dam, J. Bamber, M. R. van den Broeke, B. Wouters, P. Kuipers Munneke, and K. H. Kjær Observations over the past two decades show substantial ice loss associated with the speedup of marine terminating glaciers in Greenland. Here we use a regional 3-D outlet glacier model to simulate the behaviour of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) located in west Greenland. Using atmospheric and oceanic forcing we tune our model to reproduce the observed frontal changes of JI during 1990–2014. We identify two major accelerations. The first occurs in 1998, and is triggered by moderate thinning prior to 1998. The second acceleration, which starts in 2003 and peaks in summer 2004, is triggered by the final breakup of the floating tongue, which generates a reduction in buttressing at the JI terminus. This results in further thinning, and as the slope steepens inland, sustained high velocities have been observed at JI over the last decade. As opposed to other regions on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), where dynamically induced mass loss has slowed down over recent years, both modelled and observed results for JI suggest a continuation of the acceleration in mass loss. Further, we find that our model is not able to capture the 2012 peak in the observed velocities. Our analysis suggests that the 2012 acceleration of JI is likely the result of an exceptionally long melt season dominated by extreme melt events. Considering that such extreme surface melt events are expected to intensify in the future, our findings suggest that the 21st century projections of the GrIS mass loss and the future sea level rise may be larger than predicted by existing modelling results.

Description: About the consistency between Envisat and CryoSat-2 radar freeboard retrieval over Antarctic sea ice The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4893-4923, 2015 Author(s): S. Schwegmann, E. Rinne, R. Ricker, S. Hendricks, and V. Helm Knowledge about Antarctic sea-ice volume and its changes over the past decades has been sparse due to the lack of systematic sea-ice thickness measurements in this remote area. Recently, first attempts have been made to develop a sea-ice thickness product over the Southern Ocean from space-borne radar altimetry and results look promising. Today, more than 20 years of radar altimeter data are potentially available for such products. However, data come from different sources, and the characteristics of individual sensors differ. Hence, it is important to study the consistency between single sensors in order to develop long and consistent time series over the potentially available measurement period. Here, the consistency between freeboard measurements of the Radar Altimeter 2 on-board Envisat and freeboard measurements from the Synthetic-Aperture Interferometric Radar Altimeter on-board CryoSat-2 is tested for their overlap period in 2011. Results indicate that mean and modal values are comparable over the sea-ice growth season (May–October) and partly also beyond. In general, Envisat data shows higher freeboards in the seasonal ice zone while CryoSat-2 freeboards are higher in the perennial ice zone and near the coasts. This has consequences for the agreement in individual sectors of the Southern Ocean, where one or the other ice class may dominate. Nevertheless, over the growth season, mean freeboard for the entire (regional separated) Southern Ocean differs generally by not more than 2 cm (5 cm, except for the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea) between Envisat and CryoSat-2, and the differences between modal freeboard lie generally within ±10 cm and often even below.

Description: Brief Communication: Upper air relaxation in RACMO2 significantly improves modelled interannual SMB variability in Antarctica The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4981-4995, 2015 Author(s): W. J. van de Berg and B. Medley The regional climate model RACMO2 has been a powerful tool for improving SMB estimates from GCMs or reanalyses. However, new yearly SMB observations for West Antarctica show that the modelled interannual variability in SMB is poorly simulated by RACMO2, in contrast to ERA-Interim, which resolves this variability well. In an attempt to remedy RACMO2 performance, we included additional upper air relaxation (UAR) in RACMO2. With UAR, the correlation to observations is similar for RACMO2 and ERA-Interim. The spatial SMB patterns and ice sheet integrated SMB modelled using UAR remain very similar to the estimates of RACMO2 without UAR. We only observe an upstream smoothing of precipitation in regions with very steep topography like the Antarctic Peninsula. We conclude that UAR is a useful improvement for RCM simulations, although results in regions with steep topography should be treated with care.

Description: Review Article: Atmospheric conditions inducing extreme precipitation over the eastern and western Mediterranean Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 15, 2525-2544, 2015 Author(s): U. Dayan, K. Nissen, and U. Ulbrich This review discusses published studies of heavy rainfall events over the Mediterranean Basin, combining them in a more general picture of the dynamic and thermodynamic factors and processes that produce heavy rain storms. It distinguishes the western and eastern Mediterranean in order to point out specific regional peculiarities. The crucial moisture for developing intensive convection over these regions can be originated not only from the adjacent Mediterranean Sea but also from distant upwind sources. Transport from remote sources is usually in the mid-tropospheric layers and associated with specific features and patterns of the larger-scale circulations. The synoptic systems (tropical and extratropical) that account for most of the major extreme precipitation events and the coupling of circulation and extreme rainfall patterns are presented. Heavy rainfall over the Mediterranean Basin is caused at times in concert by several atmospheric processes working at different atmospheric scales, such as local convection, upper synoptic-scale-level troughs, and mesoscale convective systems. Under tropical air-mass intrusions, convection generated by static instability seems to play a more important role than synoptic-scale vertical motions. Locally, the occurrence of torrential rains and their intensity is dependent on factors such as temperature profiles and implied instability, atmospheric moisture, and lower-level convergence.

Description: Modeling Antarctic subglacial lake filling and drainage cycles The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 6545-6579, 2015 Author(s): C. F. Dow, M. A. Werder, S. Nowicki, and R. T. Walker The growth and drainage of active subglacial lakes in Antarctica has previously been inferred from analysis of ice surface altimetry data. We use a subglacial hydrology model applied to a synthetic Antarctic ice stream to determine internal controls on the filling and drainage of subglacial lakes and their impact on ice stream dynamics. Our model outputs suggest that the highly constricted subglacial environment of the ice stream, combined with relatively high rates of water flow funneled from large catchments, can combine to create a system exhibiting slow-moving pressure waves. Over a period of years, the accumulation of water in the ice stream onset region results in a buildup of pressure creating temporary channels, which then evacuate the excess water. This increased flux of water through the ice stream drives lake growth. As the water body builds up, it too steepens the hydraulic gradient and allows greater flux out of the overdeepened lake basin. Eventually this flux is large enough to create channels that cause the lake to drain. Due to the presence of the channels, the drainage of the lake causes high water pressures around 50 km downstream of the lake rather than immediately in the vicinity of the overdeepening. Following lake drainage, channels again shut down. Lake drainage depends on the internal hydrological development in the wider system and therefore does not directly correspond to a particular water volume or depth. This creates a highly temporally and spatially variable system, which is of interest for assessing the importance of subglacial lakes in ice stream hydrology and dynamics.

Description: Assessment of error in satellite derived lead fraction in Arctic The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 6315-6344, 2015 Author(s): N. Ivanova, P. Rampal, and S. Bouillon Leads within consolidated sea ice control heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere during winter thus constituting an important climate parameter. These narrow elongated features occur when sea ice is fracturing under the action of wind and currents, reducing the local mechanical strength of the ice cover, which in turn impact the sea ice drift patterns. This makes a high quality lead fraction (LF) dataset to be in demand for sea ice model evaluation, initialization and for assimilation of such data in regional models. In this context, the available LF dataset retrieved from satellite passive microwave observations (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System, AMSR-E) is of great value, providing pan-Arctic light- and cloud-independent daily coverage since 2002. Here we quantify errors in this dataset using accurate LF estimates retrieved from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images employing a threshold technique, also introduced in this work. We find a consistent overestimation by a factor of 2–4 of the LF estimates in the AMSR-E LF product. We show for a data sample from the AMSR-E LF dataset that a simple adjustment of the tie points used in the method to estimate the LF can reduce the pixel-wise error by a factor of 2 on average. Applying such adjustment to the full dataset may thus significantly increase the quality and value of the original dataset.

Description: Acquisition of isotopic composition for surface snow in East Antarctica and the links to climatic parameters The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 6275-6313, 2015 Author(s): A. Touzeau, A. Landais, B. Stenni, R. Uemura, K. Fukui, S. Fujita, S. Guilbaud, A. Ekaykin, M. Casado, E. Barkan, B. Luz, O. Magand, G. Teste, E. Le Meur, M. Baroni, J. Savarino, I. Bourgeois, and C. Risi The isotopic composition of oxygen and hydrogen in ice cores are invaluable tools for the reconstruction of past climate variations. Used alone, they give insights into the variations of the local temperature, whereas taken together they can provide information on the climatic conditions at the point of origin of the moisture. However, recent analyses of snow from shallow pits indicate that the climatic signal can become erased in very low accumulation regions, due to local processes of snow reworking. The signal to noise ratio decreases and the climatic signal can then only be retrieved using stacks of several snow pits. Obviously, the signal is not completely lost at this stage, otherwise it would be impossible to extract valuable climate information from ice cores as has been done, for instance, for the last glaciation. To better understand how the climatic signal is passed from the precipitation to the snow, we present here results from varied snow samples from East Antarctica. First, we look at the relationship between isotopes and temperature from a geographical point of view, using results from three traverses across Antarctica, to see how the relationship is built up through the distillation process. We also take advantage of these measures to see how second order parameters (d-excess and 17 O-excess) are related to δ 18 O and how they are controlled. d-excess increases in the interior of the continent (i.e. when δ 18 O decreases), due to the distillation process, whereas 17 O-excess decreases in remote areas, due to kinetic fractionation at low temperature. In both cases, these changes are associated with the loss of original information regarding the source. Then, we look at the same relationships in precipitation samples collected over one year at Dome C and Vostok, as well as in surface snow at Dome C. We note that the slope of the δ 18 O / T relationship decreases in these samples compared to those from the traverses, and thus advocate caution when using spatial slopes for past climate reconstruction. The second-order parameters behave in the same way in the precipitation as in the surface snow from traverses, indicating that similar processes are active. Finally we check if the same relationships between δ 18 O and second-order parameters are also found in the snow from four snow pits. While the d-excess remains opposed to δ 18 O in most snow pits, the 17 O-excess is no longer positively correlated to δ 18 O and even shows anti-correlation to δ 18 O at Vostok. This may be due to a stratospheric influence at this site and/or to post-deposition processes.

Description: Characterizing Arctic sea ice topography using high-resolution IceBridge data The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 6495-6543, 2015 Author(s): A. A. Petty, M. C. Tsamados, N. T. Kurtz, S. L. Farrell, T. Newman, J. P. Harbeck, D. L. Feltham, and J. A. Richter-Menge We present an analysis of Arctic sea ice topography using high resolution, three-dimensional, surface elevation data from the Airborne Topographic Mapper, flown as part of NASA's Operation IceBridge mission. Surface features in the sea ice cover are detected using a newly developed surface feature picking algorithm. We derive information regarding the height, volume and geometry of surface features from 2009–2014 within the Beaufort/Chukchi and Central Arctic regions. The results are delineated by ice type to estimate the topographic variability across first-year and multi-year ice regimes. The results demonstrate that Arctic sea ice topography exhibits significant spatial variability, mainly driven by the increased surface feature height and volume (per unit area) of the multi-year ice that dominates the Central Arctic region. The multi-year ice topography exhibits greater interannual variability compared to the first-year ice regimes, which dominates the total ice topography variability across both regions. The ice topography also shows a clear coastal dependency, with the feature height and volume increasing as a function of proximity to the nearest coastline, especially north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago. A strong correlation between ice topography and ice thickness (from the IceBridge sea ice product) is found, using a square-root relationship. The results allude to the importance of ice deformation variability in the total sea ice mass balance, and provide crucial information regarding the tail of the ice thickness distribution across the western Arctic. Future research priorities associated with this new dataset are presented and discussed, especially in relation to calculations of atmospheric form drag.

Description: Climate change adaptation frameworks: an evaluation of plans for coastal Suffolk, UK Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 15, 2511-2524, 2015 Author(s): J. Armstrong, R. Wilby, and R. J. Nicholls This paper asserts that three principal frameworks for climate change adaptation can be recognised in the literature: scenario-led (SL), vulnerability-led (VL) and decision-centric (DC) frameworks. A criterion is developed to differentiate these frameworks in recent adaptation projects. The criterion features six key hallmarks as follows: (1) use of climate model information; (2) analysis of metrics/units; (3) socio-economic knowledge; (4) stakeholder engagement; (5) adaptation of implementation mechanisms; (6) tier of adaptation implementation. The paper then tests the validity of this approach using adaptation projects on the Suffolk coast, UK. Fourteen adaptation plans were identified in an online survey. They were analysed in relation to the hallmarks outlined above and assigned to an adaptation framework. The results show that while some adaptation plans are primarily SL, VL or DC, the majority are hybrid, showing a mixture of DC/VL and DC/SL characteristics. Interestingly, the SL/VL combination is not observed, perhaps because the DC framework is intermediate and attempts to overcome weaknesses of both SL and VL approaches. The majority (57 %) of adaptation projects generated a risk assessment or advice notes. Further development of this type of framework analysis would allow better guidance on approaches for organisations when implementing climate change adaptation initiatives, and other similar proactive long-term planning.

Description: Committed near-future retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers inferred by transient model calibration The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4459-4498, 2015 Author(s): D. Goldberg, P. Heimbach, I. Joughin, and B. Smith A glacial flow model of Smith, Pope and Kohler Glaciers has been calibrated by means of inverse methods against time-varying, annualy resolved observations of ice height and velocities, covering the period 2002 to 2011. The inversion – termed "transient calibration" – produces an optimal set of time-mean, spatially varying parameters together with a time-evolving state that accounts for the transient nature of observations and the model dynamics. Serving as an optimal initial condition, the estimated state for 2011 is used, with no additional forcing, for predicting grounded ice volume loss and grounding line retreat over the ensuing 30 years. The transiently calibrated model predicts a near-steady loss of grounded ice volume of approximately 21 km 3 a −1 over this period, as well as loss of 33 km 2 a −1 grounded area. We contrast this prediction with one obtained following a commonly used "snapshot" or steady-state inversion, which does not consider time dependence and assumes all observations to be contemporaneous. Transient calibration is shown to achieve a better fit with observations of thinning and grounding line retreat histories, and yields a quantitatively different projection with respect to ice volume loss and ungrounding. Sensitivity studies suggest large near-future levels of unforced, i.e. committed sea level contribution from these ice streams under reasonable assumptions regarding uncertainties of the unknown parameters.

Description: Photopolarimetric retrievals of snow properties The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 3055-3074, 2015 Author(s): M. Ottaviani, B. van Diedenhoven, and B. Cairns Polarimetric observations of snow surfaces, obtained in the 410–2264 nm range with the Research Scanning Polarimeter onboard the NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft, are analyzed and presented. These novel measurements are of interest to the remote sensing community because the overwhelming brightness of snow plagues aerosol and cloud retrievals based on air- and space-borne total reflection measurements. The spectral signatures of the polarized reflectance of snow are therefore worthwhile investigating in order to provide guidance for the adaptation of algorithms currently employed for the retrieval of aerosol properties over soil and vegetated surfaces. At the same time, the increased information content of polarimetric measurements allows for a meaningful characterization of the snow medium. In our case, the grains are modeled as hexagonal prisms of variable aspect ratios and microscale roughness, yielding retrievals of the grains' scattering asymmetry parameter, shape and size. The results agree with our previous findings based on a more limited dataset, with the majority of retrievals leading to moderately rough crystals of extreme aspect ratios, for each scene corresponding to a single value of the asymmetry parameter.

Description: A prognostic model of the sea ice floe size and thickness distribution The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 2955-2997, 2015 Author(s): C. Horvat and E. Tziperman Sea ice exhibits considerable seasonal and longer-term variations in extent, concentration, thickness and age, and is characterized by a complex and continuously changing distribution of floe sizes and thicknesses. Models of sea ice used in current climate models keep track of its concentration and of the distribution of ice thicknesses, but do not account for the floe size distribution and its potential effects on air–sea exchange and sea-ice evolution. Accurately capturing sea-ice variability in climate models may require a better understanding and representation of the distribution of floe sizes and thicknesses. We develop and demonstrate a model for the evolution of the joint sea-ice floe size and thickness distribution that depends on atmospheric and oceanic forcing fields. The model accounts for effects due to multiple processes that are active in the marginal and seasonal ice zones: freezing and melting along the lateral side and base of floes, mechanical interactions due to floe collisions (ridging and rafting) and sea-ice fracture due to swell propagation into the ice pack. The model is then examined and demonstrated in a series of idealized test cases.

Description: ENSO influence on surface energy and mass balance at Shallap Glacier, Cordillera Blanca, Peru The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 2999-3053, 2015 Author(s): F. Maussion, W. Gurgiser, M. Großhauser, G. Kaser, and B. Marzeion The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climate variability in the tropical Andes, where recent Niño and Niña events left an observable footprint on glacier mass balance. The nature and strength of the relationship between ENSO and glacier mass balance, however, varies between regions and time periods, leaving several unanswered questions about its exact mechanisms. The starting point of this study is a four-year long time series of distributed surface energy and mass balance (SEB/SMB) calculated using a process-based model driven by observations at Shallap Glacier (Cordillera Blanca, Peru). These data are used to calibrate a regression-based downscaling model that links the local SEB/SMB fluxes to atmospheric reanalysis variables on a monthly basis, allowing an unprecedented quantification of the ENSO influence on the SEB/SMB at climatological time scales (1980–2013, ERA-Interim period). We find a stronger and steadier anti-correlation between pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and glacier mass balance than previously reported. This relationship is most pronounced during the wet season (December–May) and at low altitudes where Niño (Niña) events are accompanied with a snowfall deficit (excess) and a higher (lower) radiation energy input. We detect a weaker but significant ENSO anti-correlation with total precipitation (Niño dry signal) and positive correlation with the sensible heat flux, but find no ENSO influence on sublimation. Sensitivity analyses comparing several downscaling methods and reanalysis datasets resulted in stable mass balance correlations with pacific SST but also revealed large uncertainties in computing the mass balance trend of the last decades. The newly introduced open-source downscaling tool can be applied easily to other glaciers in the tropics, opening new research possibilities on even longer time scales.

Description: UAV-based urban structural damage assessment using object-based image analysis and semantic reasoning Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1087-1101, 2015 Author(s): J. Fernandez Galarreta, N. Kerle, and M. Gerke Structural damage assessment is critical after disasters but remains a challenge. Many studies have explored the potential of remote sensing data, but limitations of vertical data persist. Oblique imagery has been identified as more useful, though the multi-angle imagery also adds a new dimension of complexity. This paper addresses damage assessment based on multi-perspective, overlapping, very high resolution oblique images obtained with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). 3-D point-cloud assessment for the entire building is combined with detailed object-based image analysis (OBIA) of façades and roofs. This research focuses not on automatic damage assessment, but on creating a methodology that supports the often ambiguous classification of intermediate damage levels, aiming at producing comprehensive per-building damage scores. We identify completely damaged structures in the 3-D point cloud, and for all other cases provide the OBIA-based damage indicators to be used as auxiliary information by damage analysts. The results demonstrate the usability of the 3-D point-cloud data to identify major damage features. Also the UAV-derived and OBIA-processed oblique images are shown to be a suitable basis for the identification of detailed damage features on façades and roofs. Finally, we also demonstrate the possibility of aggregating the multi-perspective damage information at building level.

Description: Effects of soil settlement and deformed geometry on a historical structure Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1051-1059, 2015 Author(s): Y. Yardım and E. Mustafaraj Protecting the historical character of a valued structure during the assessment and damage repair process is a very challenging task for many engineers. Heritage protection is complicated by a lack of design details and restrictions on sample extraction needed to obtain accurate material properties and limited studies on the restoration of certain types of historical structures. This study aims to assess the effects of soil settlement on a structure's stress concentrations and the value of laser scanning techniques on structure analysis in obtaining correct data of settlement vs. deformation. Terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) data are used to analyse the 500-year-old historical structure of Naziresha's Mosque. The obtained TLS data allow an accurate definition of the imperfect geometry patterns lying on every side of the structure. The soil profile and general crack formation together with TLS measurement proves that the structure deformed toward the south façade, where a railway and motorway are also located. Stress concentration and mode period results have a considerable difference, which highlights earthquake vulnerability and failure mechanisms and changes the strategy of possible retrofitting.

Description: On a report that the 2012 M 6.0 earthquake in Italy was predicted after seeing an unusual cloud formation Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1061-1068, 2015 Author(s): J. N. Thomas, F. Masci, and J. J. Love Several recently published reports have suggested that semi-stationary linear-cloud formations might be causally precursory to earthquakes. We examine the report of Guangmeng and Jie (2013), who claim to have predicted the 2012 M 6.0 earthquake in the Po Valley of northern Italy after seeing a satellite photograph (a digital image) showing a linear-cloud formation over the eastern Apennine Mountains of central Italy. From inspection of 4 years of satellite images we find numerous examples of linear-cloud formations over Italy. A simple test shows no obvious statistical relationship between the occurrence of these cloud formations and earthquakes that occurred in and around Italy. All of the linear-cloud formations we have identified in satellite images, including that which Guangmeng and Jie (2013) claim to have used to predict the 2012 earthquake, appear to be orographic – formed by the interaction of moisture-laden wind flowing over mountains. Guangmeng and Jie (2013) have not clearly stated how linear-cloud formations can be used to predict the size, location, and time of an earthquake, and they have not published an account of all of their predictions (including any unsuccessful predictions). We are skeptical of the validity of the claim by Guangmeng and Jie (2013) that they have managed to predict any earthquakes.

Description: Changing surface–atmosphere energy exchange and refreezing capacity of the lower accumulation area, west Greenland The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 2867-2913, 2015 Author(s): C. Charalampidis, D. van As, J. E. Box, M. R. van den Broeke, W. T. Colgan, M. MacFerrin, H. Machguth, and P. P. Smeets We present five years (2009–2013) of automatic weather station measurements from the lower accumulation area (1840 m a.s.l.) of the ice sheet in the Kangerlussuaq region, western Greenland. Here, the summers of 2010 and 2012 were both exceptionally warm, but only 2012 resulted in a strongly negative surface mass budget (SMB) and surface meltwater runoff. The observed runoff was due to a large ice fraction in the upper 10 m of firn that prevented meltwater from percolating to available pore volume below. Analysis reveals a relatively low 2012 summer albedo of ~0.7 as meltwater was present at the surface. Consequently, during the 2012 melt season the surface absorbed 29% (213 MJ m -2 ) more solar radiation than the average of all other years. A surface energy balance model is used to evaluate the seasonal and interannual variability of all surface energy fluxes. The model reproduces the observed melt rates as well as the SMB for each season. A sensitivity test reveals that 71% of the additional solar radiation in 2012 was used for melt, corresponding to 36% (0.64 m) of the 2012 surface lowering. The remaining 1.14 m was primarily due to the high atmospheric temperatures up to +2.6 °C daily average, indicating that 2012 would have been a negative SMB year at this site even without the melt-albedo feedback. Longer time series of SMB, regional temperature and remotely sensed albedo (MODIS) show that 2012 was the first strongly negative SMB year with the lowest albedo at this elevation on record. The warm conditions of the last years resulted in enhanced melt and reduction of the refreezing capacity at the lower accumulation area. If high temperatures continue the current lower accumulation area will turn into a region with superimposed ice in coming years.

Description: The relative contributions of calving and surface ablation to ice loss at a lake-terminating glacier The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 2915-2953, 2015 Author(s): M. Chernos, M. Koppes, and R. D. Moore Bridge Glacier is a lake-terminating glacier in the Coast Mountains of British Columbia and has retreated over 3.55 km since 1972, with the majority of the retreat having occurred since 1991. This retreat is out of proportion to surface melt inferred from regional climate indices, suggesting that it has been driven primarily by calving as the glacier retreated across an over-deepened basin. In order to better understand the primary drivers of mass balance, the relative importance of surface melt and calving is investigated during the 2013 melt season using a distributed energy balance model and time-lapse imagery. Calving is responsible for 23% of the mass loss during the 2013 melt season, and is limited by modest flow speeds and a small terminus cross-section. Calving and summer balance estimates over the last 30 years suggest that calving is consistently a smaller contributor of mass loss relative to surface melt. Although calving is estimated to be responsible for up to 49% of ice loss for individual seasons, averaged over multiple summers it typically accounts for 10 to 25%. Calving has been driven primarily by buoyancy and water depths, and fluxes were greatest between 2005 and 2010 as the glacier retreated over the deepest part of Bridge Lake. These losses are part of a transient stage in the glacier's retreat, and are expected to diminish as the terminus recedes into shallower water. Surface melt is the primary driver of ice loss at Bridge Glacier, and future mass loss and retreat is dependent on governing climatic conditions.

Description: Land cover changes and forest landscape evolution (1985–2009) in a typical Mediterranean agroforestry system (high Agri Valley) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1201-1214, 2015 Author(s): T. Simoniello, R. Coluzzi, V. Imbrenda, and M. Lanfredi The present study focuses on the transformations of a typical Mediterranean agroforestry landscape of southern Italy (high Agri Valley – Basilicata region) that occurred over 24 years. In this period, the valuable agricultural and natural areas that compose such a landscape were subjected to intensive industry-related activities linked to the exploitation of the largest European onshore oil reservoir. Landsat imagery acquired in 1985 and 2009 were used to detect changes in forest areas and major land use trajectories. Landscape metrics indicators were adopted to characterize landscape structure and evolution of both the complex ecomosaic (14 land cover classes) and the forest/non-forest arrangement. Our results indicate a net increase of 11% of forest areas between 1985 and 2009. The major changes concern increase of all forest covers at the expense of pastures and grasses, enlargement of riparian vegetation, and expansion of artificial areas. The observed expansion of forests was accompanied by a decrease of the fragmentation levels likely due to the reduction of small glades that break forest homogeneity and to the recolonization of herbaceous areas. Overall, we observe an evolution towards a more stable configuration depicting a satisfactory picture of vegetation health.

Description: Internal structure of event layers preserved on the Andaman Sea continental shelf, Thailand: tsunami vs. storm and flash-flood deposits Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1181-1199, 2015 Author(s): D. Sakuna-Schwartz, P. Feldens, K. Schwarzer, S. Khokiattiwong, and K. Stattegger Tsunami, storm and flash-flood event layers, which have been deposited over the last century on the shelf offshore Khao Lak (Thailand, Andaman Sea), are identified in sediment cores based on sedimentary structures, grain size compositions, Ti / Ca ratios and 210 Pb activity. Individual offshore tsunami deposits are 12 to 30 cm in thickness and originate from the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. They are characterized by (1) the appearance of sand layers enriched in shells and shell debris and (2) the appearance of mud and sand clasts. Storm deposits found in core depths between 5 and 82 cm could be attributed to recent storm events by using 210 Pb profiles in conjunction with historical data of typhoons and tropical storms. Massive sand layers enriched in shells and shell debris characterize storm deposits. The last classified type of event layer represents reworked flash-flood deposits, which are characterized by a fining-upward sequence of muddy sediment. The most distinct difference between storm and tsunami deposits is the lack of mud and sand clasts, mud content and terrigenous material within storm deposits. Terrigenous material transported offshore during the tsunami backwash is therefore an important indicator to distinguish between storm and tsunami deposits in offshore environments.

Description: Coastal dynamics and submarine permafrost in shallow water of the central Laptev Sea, East Siberia Pier Paul Overduin, Sebastian Wetterich, Frank Günther, Mikhail N. Grigoriev, Guido Grosse, Lutz Schirrmeister, Hans-Wolfgang Hubberten, and Aleksandr Makarov The Cryosphere, 10, 1449-1462, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1449-2016, 2016 How fast does permafrost warm up and thaw after it is covered by the sea? Ice-rich permafrost in the Laptev Sea, Siberia, is rapidly eroded by warm air and waves. We used a floating electrical technique to measure the depth of permafrost thaw below the sea, and compared it to 60 years of coastline retreat and permafrost depths from drilling 30 years ago. Thaw is rapid right after flooding of the land and slows over time. The depth of permafrost is related to how fast the coast retreats.

Description: Age of the Mt. Ortles ice cores, the Tyrolean Iceman and glaciation of the highest summit of South Tyrol since the Northern Hemisphere Climatic Optimum Paolo Gabrielli, Carlo Barbante, Giuliano Bertagna, Michele Bertó, Daniel Binder, Alberto Carton, Luca Carturan, Federico Cazorzi, Giulio Cozzi, Giancarlo Dalla Fontana, Mary Davis, Fabrizio De Blasi, Roberto Dinale, Gianfranco Dragà, Giuliano Dreossi, Daniela Festi, Massimo Frezzotti, Jacopo Gabrieli, Stephan Galos, Patrick Ginot, Petra Heidenwolf, Theo M. Jenk, Natalie Kehrwald, Donald Kenny, Olivier Magand, Volkmar Mair, Vladimir Mikhalenko, Ping Nan Lin, Klaus Oeggl, Gianni Piffer, Mirko Rinaldi, Ulrich Schotterer, Margit Schwikowski, Roberto Seppi, Andrea Spolaor, Barbara Stenni, Davdi Tonidandel, CChiara Uglietti, Victor Zagorodnov, Thomas Zanoner, and Piero Zennaro The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-159,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) New ice cores were extracted from Alto dell'Ortles, the highest glacier of South Tyrol in the Italian Alps, to check whether prehistoric ice, that is coeval to the famous 5200 years old Tyrolean Iceman, is still preserved in this region. Dating of the ice cores confirms the hypothesis and indicates that the drilling site was glaciated since the end of the Northern Hemisphere Climatic Optimum (7000 BP). We also infer that an unprecedented acceleration of the glacier flow has just recently begun.

Description: Combined diurnal variations of discharge and hydrochemistry of the Isunnguata Sermia outlet of the Greenland Ice Sheet give in sight on sub glacial conditions Joseph Graly, Joel Harrington, and Neil Humphrey The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-137,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) At a major outlet of the Greenland Ice Sheet in West Greenland, we find that the chemical solutes is the emerging subglacial waters are out of phase with water discharge and can spike in concentration during waning flow. This suggests that the subglacial waters are spreading out across a large area of the glacial bed throughout the day, stimulating chemical weathering beyond the major water distribution channels.

Description: Inversion of geothermal heat flux in a thermomechanically coupled nonlinear Stokes ice sheet model Hongyu Zhu, Noemi Petra, Georg Stadler, Tobin Isaac, Thomas J. R. Hughes, and Omar Ghattas The Cryosphere, 10, 1477-1494, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1477-2016, 2016 We study how well the basal geothermal heat flux can be inferred from surface velocity observations using a thermomechanically coupled nonlinear Stokes ice sheet model. The prospects and limitations of this inversion is studied in two and three dimensional model problems. We also argue that a one-way coupled approach for the adjoint equations motivated by staggered solvers for forward multiphysics problems can lead to an incorrect gradient and premature termination of the optimization iteration.

Description: Increased nitrate and decreased δ 15 N–NO 3 − in the Greenland Arctic after 1940 attributed to North American oil burning Nathan J. Chellman, Meredith G. Hastings, and Joseph R. McConnell The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-163,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) This manuscript analyzes the changing sources of nitrate deposition to Greenland since 1760 CE using a dataset consisting of sub-seasonally resolved nitrogen isotopes of nitrate and source tracers. Correlations amongst ion concentration, source tracers, and the δ 15 N–NO 3 − provide evidence of the impact of biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion emissions of nitrogen oxides and suggest that oil combustion is the likely driver of increased nitrate concentration in Greenland ice since 1940 CE.

Description: Slight glacier reduction over the northwestern Tibetan Plateau despite significant recent warming Yetang Wang, Shugui Hou, Wenling An, Hongxi Pang, and Yaping Liu The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-165,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) This study further confirms "Pamir–Karakoram–Western-Kunlun-Mountain (northwestern Tibetan Plateau) Glacier Anomaly". Slight glacier reduction over the northwestern Tibetan Plateau may result from more accumulation from increased precipitation in winter which to great extent protects it from mass reductions under climate warming during 1961–2000. Warming slowdown since 2000 happening at this region may further mitigate glacier mass reduction.

Description: Response of seasonal soil freeze depth to climate change across China Xiaoqing Peng, Oliver W. Frauenfeld, Tingjun Zhang, Kang Wang, Bin Cao, Xinyue Zhong, Hang Su, and Cuicui Mu The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-129,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Previous researches paid more attention on the permafrost, e.g. active layer thickness, soil temperature, permafrost area extent, and associated with permafrost degradation leading other changes. However, seasonally frozen ground, vast area extent, did not focus by so much attention. Here, we combined more than 800 observation station data and gridded data to investigate soil freeze depth across China. The results indicate that soil freeze depth increase with climate warming.

Description: Characteristics of an avalanche-feeding and partially debris-covered glacier and its response to atmospheric warming in Mt. Tomor, Tian Shan, China Puyu Wang, Zhongqin Li, and Huilin Li The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-138,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) A cirque-valley glacier with complex topography and partially debris-covered area was investigated in the Mt. Tomor, Tian Shan. The glacier is analogous to temperate one on movement and temperature regimes. The strongest ablation and most significant terminus retreat and area reduction occurred at the end of last century and the beginning of this century. Since inhibition of debris cover to melting, it is expected to keep shrinkage in the coming decades, but the terminus retreat is to be slower.

Description: Development of high-resolution multi-scale modelling system for simulation of coastal-fluvial urban flooding Agnieszka Indiana Olbert, Joanne Comer, Stephen Nash, and Michael Hartnett Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-238,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) A novel nested flood model (MSN_Flood) is applied to simulate complex coastal-fluvial urban flooding in order to critically examine the model's capability to forecast evolution of urban inundation. The model demonstrates high accuracy of outputs without incurring the computational expense of high spatial resolution over the entire model domain. MSN_Flood provides full characteristics of water levels and flow regimes necessary for flood hazard identification and flood risk assessment.

Description: Comparison and validation of global and regional ocean forecasting systems for the South China Sea Xueming Zhu, Hui Wang, Guimei Liu, Charly Régnier, Xiaodi Kuang, Dakui Wang, Shihe Ren, Zhiyou Jing, and Marie Drévillon Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1639-1655, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1639-2016, 2016 This paper examined the performances of two operational ocean forecasting systems, Mercator Océan in France and SCSOFS in China, based on observed satellite and in situ data obtained in 2012. The comparison and validation are focused on the ocean circulations, the structures of temperature and salinity, and some mesoscale activities in the South China Sea. Finally, some recommendations have been proposed for both systems to improve their performances in the near future.

Description: An ice-sheet-wide framework for englacial attenuation from ice-penetrating radar data T. M. Jordan, J. L. Bamber, C. N. Williams, J. D. Paden, M. J. Siegert, P. Huybrechts, O. Gagliardini, and F. Gillet-Chaulet The Cryosphere, 10, 1547-1570, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1547-2016, 2016 Ice penetrating radar enables determination of the basal properties of ice sheets. Existing algorithms assume stationarity in the attenuation rate, which is not justifiable at an ice sheet scale. We introduce the first ice-sheet-wide algorithm for radar attenuation that incorporates spatial variability, using the temperature field from a numerical model as an initial guess. The study is a step toward ice-sheet-wide data products for basal properties and evaluation of model temperature fields.

Description: Circumpolar polynya regions and ice production in the Arctic: Results from MODIS thermal infrared imagery for 2002/2003 to 2014/2015 with a regional focus on the Laptev Sea Andreas Preußer, Günther Heinemann, Sascha Willmes, and Stephan Paul The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-133,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Our study presents spatial and temporal characteristics of 16 prominent polynya regions over the entire Arctic basin. By using an energy balance model, we are able to derive daily thin-ice thickness distributions from satellite and atmospheric reanalysis data. All polynyas combined yield an average ice production of about 1444 km 3 per winter. Interestingly, we find distinct regional differences in calculated trends over the last 13 years. Finally, we set a special focus on the Laptev Sea region.

Description: Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability – prospects and limitations Sebastian Bathiany, Bregje van der Bolt, Mark S. Williamson, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Egbert H. van Nes, and Dirk Notz The Cryosphere, 10, 1631-1645, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016, 2016 We examine if a potential "tipping point" in Arctic sea ice, causing abrupt and irreversible sea-ice loss, could be foreseen with statistical early warning signals. We assess this idea by using several models of different complexity. We find robust and consistent trends in variability that are not specific to the existence of a tipping point. While this makes an early warning impossible, it allows to estimate sea-ice variability from only short observational records or reconstructions.

Description: Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain Jesica Tamara Castillo-Rodríguez, Ignacio Escuder-Bueno, Sara Perales-Momparler, and Juan Ramón Porta-Sancho Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1699-1718, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1699-2016, 2016 This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative flood risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The conducted research work aims at providing a framework for local flood risk analysis and to support risk-informed decision-making (e.g. urban planning and development, flood risk management, civil protection). This article shows the added value of a risk-informed perspective, applied to a real case study in Spain.

Description: Meteorological factors driven glacial till changing and the associated periglacial debris flows in Tianmo Valley, southeast Tibetan Plateau Mingfeng Deng, Ningsheng Chen, and Mei Liu Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-251,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Initiation of deris flows in Tianmo valley shows annual temperature spiked and glacier retreat quickly before the three debris flows, while they did not occur when glacier retreat is sharpest, resulting from the bared glacial till is frozen as the melting of internal ice lags behind glacial retreat. The activity of the glacial till can be enhanced by prolonged high air temperature. Finally, either rainfall or continuous percolation of ice ablation water flows can generate periglacial debris flows.

Description: Analysis of slope processes in the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain) by means of Cross Correlation Function applied to high frequency monitoring data Marco Mulas, Jordi Corominas, Alessandro Corsini, and Jose Moya Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-253,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) In this work, the Cross-Correlation Function is used in order to quantitatively investigate the time-lagged correlation between high frequency monitoring data on rainfall, piezometric and displacement with the objective to evidence hydro-mechanical processes in the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain). The analysis highlighted and constrained in time a dual triggering mechanism in which factors controlling movement change from the upper to the lower part of the landslide.

Description: Signature of Arctic first-year ice melt pond fraction in X-band SAR imagery Ane S. Fors, Dmitry V. Divine, Anthony P. Doulgeris, Angelika H. H. Renner, and Sebastian Gerland The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-125,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) This paper investigates the signature of melt ponds in satellite borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery. The study shows that polarimetric X-band SAR can be used to extract melt pond fraction from drifting first-year sea ice, and discusses the influence of factors like wind speed, SAR incidence angle and instrument noise floor. Melt ponds strongly influence the Arctic sea ice energy budget, and the results imply prospective opportunities for expanded monitoring of melt ponds from space.

Description: Greenland annual accumulation along the EGIG line, 1959–2004, from ASIRAS airborne radar and neutron-probe density measurements Thomas B. Overly, Robert L. Hawley, Veit Helm, Elizabeth M. Morris, and Rohan N. Chaudhary The Cryosphere, 10, 1679-1694, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1679-2016, 2016 We demonstrate that snow accumulation rates across the Greenland Ice Sheet, determined from RADAR layers and modeled snow density profiles, are identical to ground-based measurements of snow accumulation. Three regional climate models underestimate snow accumulation compared to RADAR layer estimates. Using RADAR increases spatial coverage and improves accuracy of snow accumulation estimates. Incorporating our results into climate models may reduce uncertainty of sea-level rise estimates.

Description: Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators: application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards Maria Papathoma-Köhle Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1771-1790, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1771-2016, 2016 Two established methods for assessing the physical vulnerability of buildings to natural hazards (vulnerability indicators and vulnerability curves) are compared after beind applied at the same case study. The case study area is located in South Tyrol (Italy) and it is subject to debris flow hazard. The results indicate that both methods have advantages and disadvantages and should be used in combination rather than in isolation by practitioners.

Description: What if the 25 October 2011 event that struck Cinque Terre (Liguria) had happened in Genoa, Italy? Flooding scenarios, hazard mapping and damage estimation Francesco Silvestro, Nicola Rebora, Lauro Rossi, Daniele Dolia, Simone Gabellani, Flavio Pignone, Eva Trasforini, Roberto Rudari, Silvia De Angeli, and Cristiano Masciulli Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1737-1753, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1737-2016, 2016 During the autumn of 2011 two catastrophic, very intense rainfall events affected two different parts of the Liguria Region of Italy causing various flash floods. The first occurred in October and the second at the beginning of November. Both the events were characterized by very high rainfall intensities (〉 100 mm h −1 ) that persisted on a small portion of territory causing local huge rainfall accumulations (〉 400 mm 6 h −1 ). Two main considerations were made in order to set up this work. The first consideration is that various studies demonstrated that the two events had a similar genesis and similar triggering elements. The second very evident and coarse concern is that two main elements are needed to have a flash flood: a very intense and localized rainfall event and a catchment (or a group of catchments) to be affected. Starting from these assumptions we did the exercise of mixing the two flash flood ingredients by putting the rainfall field of the first event on the main catchment struck by the second event, which has its mouth in the biggest city of the Liguria Region: Genoa. A complete framework was set up to quantitatively carry out a “what if” experiment with the aim of evaluating the possible damages associated with this event. A probabilistic rainfall downscaling model was used to generate possible rainfall scenarios maintaining the main characteristics of the observed rainfall fields while a hydrological model transformed these rainfall scenarios in streamflow scenarios. A subset of streamflow scenarios is then used as input to a 2-D hydraulic model to estimate the hazard maps, and finally a proper methodology is applied for damage estimation. This leads to the estimation of the potential economic losses and of the risk level for the people that stay in the affected area. The results are interesting, surprising and in a way worrying: a rare but not impossible event (it occurred about 50 km away from Genoa) would have caused huge damages estimated between 120 and EUR 230 million for the affected part of the city of Genoa, Italy, and more than 17 000 potentially affected people.

Description: VISIR: technological infrastructure of an operational service for safe and efficient navigation in the Mediterranean Sea Gianandrea Mannarini, Giuseppe Turrisi, Alessandro D'Anca, Mario Scalas, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Francesco Palermo, Ivano Carluccio, Matteo Scuro, Sergio Cretì, Rita Lecci, Paola Nassisi, and Luca Tedesco Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1791-1806, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1791-2016, 2016 Safety and efficiency of navigation can be enhanced through a better situational awareness at sea. We designed and realized an operational infrastructure for providing the navigators with optimal routes through various devices: PC, tablets, and smartphones. Sea-state and wind forecasts are used as inputs. Both motor- and sailboat routes are addressed by VISIR.

Description: Thermal impacts of engineering activities and vegetation layer on permafrost in different alpine ecosystems of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China Qingbai Wu, Zhongqiong Zhang, Siru Gao, and Wei Ma The Cryosphere, 10, 1695-1706, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1695-2016, 2016 Climate warming and engineering activities have various impacts on the thermal regime of permafrost in alpine ecosystems of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Using recent observations of permafrost thermal regimes along the Qinghai–Tibet highway and railway, the changes of such regimes beneath embankments constructed in alpine meadows and steppes are studied. The results show that alpine meadows on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau can have a controlling role among engineering construction effects on permafrost beneath embankments. As before railway construction, the artificial permafrost table (APT) beneath embankments is not only affected by climate change and engineering activities but is also controlled by alpine ecosystems. However, the change rate of APT is not dependent on ecosystem type, which is predominantly affected by climate change and engineering activities. Instead, the rate is mainly related to cooling effects of railway ballast and heat absorption effects of asphalt pavement. No large difference between alpine and steppe can be identified regarding the variation of soil temperature beneath embankments, but this difference is readily identified in the variation of mean annual soil temperature with depth. The vegetation layer in alpine meadows has an insulation role among engineering activity effects on permafrost beneath embankments, but this insulation gradually disappears because the layer decays and compresses over time. On the whole, this layer is advantageous for alleviating permafrost temperature rise in the short term, but its effect gradually weakens in the long term.

Description: Impact of Icebergs on Net Primary Productivity in the Southern Ocean Shuang-Ye Wu and Shugui Hou The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-166,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) The primary productivity in the Southern Ocean (SO) is limited by the amount of iron available for biological activities. Recent studies show that icebergs could be a main source of iron to the SO. Based on remote sensing data, our study shows that iceberg presence has a small, yet statistically significant, positive impact on productivity. As iceberg quantity increases, their positive influence on productivity also increases. This impact could serve as a negative feedback to the climate system.

Description: Possible groundwater dominance in the subglacial hydrology of ice sheet interiors: example at Dome C, East Antarctica Brad T. Gooch, Sasha P. Carter, Omar Ghattas, Duncan A. Young, and Donald D. Blankenship The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-141,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Our work investigates the potential significance of groundwater flow underneath the interior of East Antarctica where the ice doesn't rapidly melt. We attempt to describe the relationship between two hydrologic systems (water under the ice and in the ground) and how they might interact along a flow path between lakes under the ice. We find that groundwater is significant in regional water transport for melt water under the ice in areas of low melting in East Antarctica.

Description: Design of a scanning laser meter for monitoring the spatio-temporal evolution of snow depth and its application in the Alps and in Antarctica Ghislain Picard, Laurent Arnaud, Jean-Michel Panel, and Samuel Morin The Cryosphere, 10, 1495-1511, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1495-2016, 2016 A cost-effective automatic laser scan has been built to measure snow depth spatio-temporal variations. Deployed in the Alps and in Dome C (Antarctica), two devices acquired daily scans covering a surface area of 100–150 m 2 . The precision and long-term stability of the measurements are about 1 cm and the accuracy is better than 5 cm. These high performances are particularly suited at Dome C, where it was possible to reveal that most of the accumulation in the year 2015 stems from a single event.

Description: Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany" Fred Fokko Hattermann, Shaochun Huang, Olaf Burghoff, Peter Hoffmann, and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1617-1622, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1617-2016, 2016 We report that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in Germany in a future warmer climate. The general significance of the study is supported by the fact that the outcome of an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) was used as a climate driver for a hydrological model considering more than 3000 river basins in Germany.

Description: Arctic sea-ice diffusion from observed and simulated Lagrangian trajectories Pierre Rampal, Sylvain Bouillon, Jon Bergh, and Einar Ólason The Cryosphere, 10, 1513-1527, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1513-2016, 2016 Due to the increasing activity in Arctic, sea-ice–ocean models are now frequently used to produce operational forecasts, for oil spill trajectory modelling and to assist in offshore operations planning. In this study we evaluate the performance of two models with respect to their capability to reproduce observed sea ice diffusion properties by using metrics based on Lagrangian statistics. This paper presents a new and useful evaluation metric for current coupled sea ice–ocean models.

Description: Retrieval of the thickness of undeformed sea ice from simulated C-band compact polarimetric SAR images Xi Zhang, Wolfgang Dierking, Jie Zhang, Junmin Meng, and Haitao Lang The Cryosphere, 10, 1529-1545, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1529-2016, 2016 In this work, we introduced a parameter ("CP ratio") for the retrieval of the thickness of undeformed first-year sea ice that is specifically adapted to compact polarimetric SAR images. Based on a validation using other compact polarimetric SAR images from the Labrador Sea, we found a root mean square error of 8 cm and a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.94 for the retrieval procedure when applying it to level ice between 0.1 m and 0.8 m thick.

Description: Mangrove forest against dyke-break-induced tsunami on rapidly subsiding coasts Hiroshi Takagi, Takahito Mikami, Daisuke Fujii, Miguel Esteban, and Shota Kurobe Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1629-1638, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1629-2016, 2016 Thin coastal dykes found in developing countries may suddenly collapse due to land subsidence, material ageing, earthquakes, a collision with vessels, etc. Such a failure could trigger a dyke-break-induced tsunami. To analyse the potential consequences of such a flooding event, a hydrodynamic model was created using the data from the authors' field surveys of a vulnerable coastal community in Jakarta. The countermeasure of using mangrove forest is also proposed to mitigate violent floods.

Description: High resolution boundary conditions of an old ice target near Dome C, Antarctica Duncan A. Young, Jason L. Roberts, Catherine Ritz, Massimo Frezzotti, Enrica Quartini, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Carly R. Tozer, Daniel Steinhage, Stefano Urbini, Hugh F. J. Corr, Tas Van Ommen, and Donald D. Blankenship The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-169,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Glacial ice can preserve records of Earth's ancient atmosphere (including greenhouse gases) that can be compared to ocean sediment records of ice sheet size to better understand climate feedbacks. To find records of the greenhouse gases found in key periods of climate transition, we need to find sites of unmelted old ice near the base of the ice sheet. We performed a high resolution survey of such a site near Europe's Concordia station in East Antarctica, using a multi instrument aircraft.

Description: Debris flow impact estimation on a rigid barrier Federico Vagnon and Andrea Segalini Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1691-1697, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1691-2016, 2016 This study has the aim of reviewing the dynamics of debris flow impact against rigid structures and providing a new simple formulation to predict peak thrust. The proposed equation differs from other formulations because it takes into account flow characteristics, material properties, and barrier dimensions. The developed model is sufficiently capable of predicting measured force during the laboratory tests.

Description: Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results Lara Mani, Paul D. Cole, and Iain Stewart Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1673-1689, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016, 2016 Here, we aim to better understand the potential for using video games in volcanic hazard education with at-risk communities. A study using a bespoke-designed video game – St. Vincent's Volcano – was trialled on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent in 2015. Preliminary data analysis demonstrates 94 % of study participants had an improved knowledge of volcanic hazards after playing the game, leading us to conclude that video games could be a logical progression for education and outreach activities.

Description: Snowpack modelling in the Pyrenees driven by kilometric-resolution meteorological forecasts Louis Quéno, Vincent Vionnet, Ingrid Dombrowski-Etchevers, Matthieu Lafaysse, Marie Dumont, and Fatima Karbou The Cryosphere, 10, 1571-1589, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1571-2016, 2016 Simulations are carried out in the Pyrenees with the snowpack model Crocus, driven by meteorological forecasts from the model AROME at kilometer resolution. The evaluation is done with ground-based measurements, satellite data and reference simulations. Studying daily snow depth variations allows to separate different physical processes affecting the snowpack. We show the benefits of AROME kilometric resolution and dynamical behavior in terms of snowpack spatial variability in a mountain range.

Description: Radiocarbon dating of glacier ice Chiara Uglietti, Alexander Zapf, Theo M. Jenk, Sönke Szidat, Gary Salazar, and Margit Schwikowski The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-160,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) A meaningful interpretation of the climatic history contained in ice cores requires a precise chronology. For dating the older and deeper part of the glaciers, radiocarbon analysis can be used, when organic matter such as plant or insect fragments is found in the ice. Since this happens rarely, a complementary dating tool is based on radiocarbon dating of the insoluble fraction of carbonaceous aerosols entrapped in the ice, allowing dating ice with ages between 200 and more than 10 000 years.

Description: Effects of stratified active layers on high-altitude permafrost warming: a case study on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Xicai Pan, Yanping Li, Qihao Yu, Xiaogang Shi, Daqing Yang, and Kurt Roth The Cryosphere, 10, 1591-1603, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1591-2016, 2016 Using a 9-year dataset in conjunction with a process-based model, we verify that the common assumption of a considerably smaller thermal conductivity in the thawed season than the frozen season is not valid at a site with a stratified active layer on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). The unique hydraulic and thermal mechanism in the active layer challenges the concept of thermal offset used in conceptual permafrost models and hints at the reason for rapid permafrost warming on the QTP.

Description: Brief communication: Organochlorine pesticides in an archived firn core from Law Dome, East Antarctica Marie Bigot, Mark A. J. Curran, Andrew D. Moy, Derek C. G. Muir, Darryl W. Hawker, Roger Cropp, Camilla F. Teixeira, and Susan Bengtson Nash The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-178,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were, for the first time, quantified in archived firn cores from the East Antarctic ice sheet representative of 1945–1957 C.E. and 1958–1967 C.E. The core sections were melted under high purity nitrogen atmosphere and the melt water analysed. Methods allowed quantification of hexachlorocyclohexanes, heptachlor, trans-chlordane, dieldrin and endrin. While the core presented evidence of nominal modern-use chemical contamination, indicating handling and/or storage contamination, legacy OCP concentrations and deposition rates reported are orders of magnitude lower than those from Arctic regions, lending support for their validity. The study further provides a description of equipment used and suggests adapted methods to overcome logistical challenges associated with trace organic contaminant detection in Polar Regions.

Description: Simple and approximate upper-limit estimation of future precipitation return-values Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, Abdelkader Mezghani, and Anita V. Dyrrdal Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-229,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) We propose a strategy for quantifying the maximum effect a temperature change has on heavy precipitation amounts making use of the limited available sources of information: laws of physics, seasonal variations, mathematical estimation of probability, and large number of climate model results. An upper bound is estimated rather than most likely value.

Description: Connected subglacial lake drainage beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica Benjamin E. Smith, Noel Gourmelen, Alexander Huth, and Ian Joughin The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-180,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) In this paper we investigate elevation changes of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, one of the main sources of excess ice discharge into the ocean. We find that in early 2013, four subglacial lakes separated by 100 km drained suddenly, discharging more than three cubic kilometers of water under the fastest part of the glacier in less than six months. Concurrent ice-speed measurements show only minor changes, suggesting that ice dynamics are not strongly sensitive to changes in water flow.

Description: Isotopic exchange on the diurnal scale between near-surface snow and lower atmospheric water vapor at Kohnen station, East Antarctica François Ritter, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Martin Werner, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Anais Orsi, Melanie Behrens, Gerit Birnbaum, Johannes Freitag, Camille Risi, and Sepp Kipfstuhl The Cryosphere, 10, 1647-1663, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, 2016 We present the first successful continuous measurements of water vapor isotopes performed in Antarctica in January 2013. The interest is to understand the impact of the water vapor isotopic composition on the near-surface snow isotopes. Our study reveals a diurnal cycle in the snow isotopic composition in phase with the vapor. This finding suggests fractionation during the sublimation of the ice, which has an important consequence on the interpretation of water isotope variations in ice cores.

Description: Partial reactivation of a huge deep-seated ancient rock slide: recognition, formation mechanism, and stability Minggao Tang, Qiang Xu, Yusheng Li, Runqiu Huang, Niek Rengers, and Xing Zhu Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1719-1735, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1719-2016, 2016 An important argument for the conclusion is the recognition of a regional compressive tectonic stress field in this area, which cannot lead to the formation of a fault graben, which needs a tensional tectonic stress field. Moreover, numerous unique geological features, sliding marks, and other relics of the ancient slide have been discovered in the field. A centrifuge model test shows that a deformation and failure process of "creep–crack–cut" and a type of "successive rotational rock slide" have occurred.

Description: Evaposublimation from the snow in the Mediterranean mountains of Sierra Nevada (Spain) Javier Herrero and María José Polo The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-161,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) This manuscript presents 7 years of field work and modelling to assess the importance of the loss of water from the snow by means of sublimation in the Mediterranean mountains of Sierra Nevada. The actual sublimation rates were detected through detailed measurement of the mass fluxes from the snow. These data have led to some improvements in the modelling of the snow in this kind of mountainous semiarid regions. The sublimation is estimated to range between 24–33 % of total annual snowfall.

Description: An automated methodology for differentiating rock from snow, clouds and sea in Antarctica from Landsat 8 imagery: a new rock outcrop map and area estimation for the entire Antarctic continent Alex Burton-Johnson, Martin Black, Peter T. Fretwell, and Joseph Kaluza-Gilbert The Cryosphere, 10, 1665-1677, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1665-2016, 2016 We present a new rock outcrop map for the entire Antarctic continent, a principal base dataset for research and mapping in Antarctica with broad applications. To derive the map, a new methodology was developed and applied to allow automated identification of rock outcrops from Landsat 8 satellite images whilst excluding sunlit and shaded snow, clouds and liquid water – the first such automated methodology. The new dataset reveals that exposed rock forms only 0.18 % of the entire continent.

Description: Diagnosing the decline in climatic mass balance of glaciers in Svalbard over 1957–2014 Torbjørn Ims Østby, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Jon Ove Hagen, Regine Hock, Jack Kohler, and Carleen H. Reijmer The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-172,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) We present modeled climatic mass balance for all glaciers in Svalbard for the period 1957–2014 at 1 km resolution using a coupled surface energy balance and snowpack model, thereby closing temporal and spatial gaps in direct and geodetic mass balance estimates. Supporting previous studies, our results indicate increased mass loss over the period. A detailed analysis of the involved energy fluxes reveals that increased mass loss is caused by atmospheric warming further amplified by feedbacks.

Description: Lightning risk assessment at a high spatial resolution using the resident sub-district scale: A case study in Beijing metropolitan areas Hai Bo Hu and Jing Xiao Li Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-231,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Lightning risk indexes identifying the potential number of dangerous lightning events (NDLEs) and ground sensitivity to lightning in resident sub-districts of Beijing metropolitan areas have been unprecedentedly estimated on a 5 m resolution grid. The gridded cloud to ground (CG) lightning stroke density was used in the NDLE calculation, on account of multiple contacts formed by CG lightning flash multiplicity. Meanwhile, in the NDLE estimates, the critical CG stroke gridded densities derived from the lightning location system (LLS) data were corrected for network detection efficiency (DE). This case study on resident sub-district indicates that the site-specific sensitivity to lightning, which is determined by the terrain factors related to lightning attachment, as well as lightning rod effects induced by nearby structures, differs greatly across types of underlying ground areas. The discrepancy of the NDLE which is the numerical product of sensitivity and CG stroke density, is predominated by the sensitivity on account of the relatively stationary CG stroke density in a resident sub-district scale. Conclusively, the visualization of lightning risk sensitivity and NDLE discrepancy in parts of a resident sub-district at high spatial resolution makes it convenient in risk reduction and risk control for lightning risk management.

Description: Simulating ice layer formation under the presence of preferential flow in layered snowpacks Nander Wever, Sebastian Würzer, Charles Fierz, and Michael Lehning The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-185,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) The study presents a dual domain approach to simulate liquid water flow in snow using the 1-dimensional physics based snow cover model SNOWPACK. In this approach, the pore space is separated into a part for matrix flow and a part that represents preferential flow. Using this approach, water can percolate sub-freezing snow and form dense (ice) layers. A comparison with snow pits shows that some of the observed ice layers were reproduced by the model while others remain challenging to simulate.

Description: The unrest of the San Miguel volcano (El Salvador, Central America): installation of the monitoring network and observed volcano-tectonic ground deformation Alessandro Bonforte, Douglas Antonio Hernandez, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Louis Handal, Cecilia Polío, Salvatore Rapisarda, and Piergiorgio Scarlato Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1755-1769, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1755-2016, 2016 In this paper, we present the work done during an international cooperation between Italy and El Salvador, for implementing the multiparametric monitoring of the San Miguel volcano in El Salvador after its sudden unrest. In particular, the aim of this paper is to show and describe the installed geodetic network and to show, comment and interpret the very first detailed ground deformation data obtained on this volcano during an unrest period, useful for characterizing its unknown dynamics.

Description: Hydrodynamic modelling of coastal seas: the role of tidal dynamics in the Messina Strait, Western Mediterranean Sea Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Antonio Olita, Leopoldo Fazioli, Alberto Ribotti, Matteo Sinerchia, Costanza Tedesco, and Roberto Sorgente Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1553-1569, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1553-2016, 2016 This work explored the importance of considering the tidal dynamics when modelling the general circulation in the Messina Strait, a narrow passage connecting the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian Sea sub-basins in the Western Mediterranean Sea. The results highlight that tidal dynamics deeply impact the reproduction of the instantaneous and residual circulation pattern, waters thermohaline properties and transport dynamics both inside the Messina Strait and in the surrounding coastal and open waters.

Description: Heavy snow loads in Finnish forests respond regionally asymmetrically to projected climate change Ilari Lehtonen, Matti Kämäräinen, Hilppa Gregow, Ari Venäläinen, and Heli Peltola Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-184,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) We studied the impact of projected climate change on the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland. Although winters are projected to become milder over the whole of Finland, our results suggest than in eastern and northern Finland the risk may increase while in southern and western parts of the country it is projected to decrease. This indicates that there is increasing need to consider the potential of snow damage in forest management in eastern and northern Finland.

Description: Review article: Potential application of surface methods for the monitoring of organic matter dynamics in marine systems Galja Pletikapić and Nadica Ivošević DeNardis Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-178,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) We present the potential of non-invasive surface methods, the electrochemical method applied with atomic force microscopy imaging (AFM), and its application for monitoring needs undertaken in the Adriatic sea. Electrochemical approach enables simple and fast analysis of a large number of raw seawater samples due to the simultaneous differentiation of organic constituents in seawater. AFM allows direct visualization and structural organization of marine organic matter at nanometer scales.

Description: Marine ice sheet model performance depends on basal sliding physics and sub-shelf melting Rupert Michael Gladstone, Roland Charles Warner, Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, Olivier Gagliardini, Thomas Zwinger, and Ralf Greve The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-149,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Computer models are used to simulate the behaviour of glaciers and ice sheets. It has been found that such models are required to be run at very high resolution (which means high computational expense) in order to accurately represent the evolution of marine ice sheets (ice sheets resting on bedrock below sea level), in certain situations.

Description: Effects of Seasonal Snow Cover on Hydrothermal Conditions of the Active Layer in the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Ji Chen, Yu Sheng, Qingbai Wu, Lin Zhao, Jing Li, and Jingyi Zhao The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-134,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) The extreme thin and short-time snow cover in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet plateau is predominantly during spring and autumn. Removal of seasonal snow cover is beneficial for cooling the active layer in the first few years. Seasonal snow cover maintains the high water content of the active layer because of the inhibitory action of snow cover on the evaporation capacity in the natural site during the daytime and in summer. Snow removal can therefore lead to a rapid decrease of soil moisture.

Description: Surface mass balance and water stable isotopes derived from firn cores on three ice rises, Fimbul Ice Shelf, Antarctica Carmen P. Vega, Elisabeth Schlosser, Dmitry V. Divine, Jack Kohler, Tõnu Martma, Anja Eichler, Margit Schwikowski, and Elisabeth Isaksson The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-164,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Surface mass balance and water stable isotopes from firn cores on three ice rises at Fimbul Ice Shelf, are reported. The results suggest that the ice rises are suitable sites for the retrieval of longer firn and ice cores. The first deuterium excess data for the area suggests a possible role of seasonal moisture transport changes on the annual isotopic signal. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns most likely provide the dominant influence on water stable isotope ratios at the sites.

Description: GPS-derived ground deformation (2005–2014) within the Gulf of Mexico region referred to a stable Gulf of Mexico reference frame Jiangbo Yu and Guoquan Wang Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1583-1602, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1583-2016, 2016 The study establishes the first local reference frame for the Gulf of Mexico region using the observations from 13 GNSS sites. The root mean square (RMS) of the velocities of the 13 reference stations achieves 0.2 mm yr −1 in the horizontal and 0.3 mm yr −1 in the vertical directions. Land subsidence, faulting, and salt dome activities in the Houston region, Mexico City, and the southeastern Louisiana region are discussed and compared.

Description: GIS analysis of effects of future Baltic sea level rise on the island of Gotland, Sweden Karin Ebert, Karin Ekstedt, and Jerker Jarsjö Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1571-1582, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1571-2016, 2016 Future sea level rise is inevitable. We investigate the effects of 2 m sea level rise on the island of Gotland, Sweden. In a multi-criteria analysis we analyze the quantity of infrastructure that will be inundated, and the effect of saltwater intrusion in wells. Almost 100 km 2 (3 %) of Gotland's land area will be inundated. Important touristic and nature values will be strongest affected. Well salinization will greatly increase. Administrative planning is needed to prepare for changes.