ALBERT

Description: Are seasonal calving dynamics forced by buttressing from ice mélange or undercutting by melting? Outcomes from full-Stokes simulations of Store Glacier, West Greenland The Cryosphere, 8, 2353-2365, 2014 Author(s): J. Todd and P. Christoffersen We use a full-Stokes 2-D model (Elmer/Ice) to investigate the flow and calving dynamics of Store Glacier, a fast-flowing outlet glacier in West Greenland. Based on a new, subgrid-scale implementation of the crevasse depth calving criterion, we perform two sets of simulations: one to identify the primary forcing mechanisms and another to constrain future stability. We find that the mixture of icebergs and sea ice, known as ice mélange or sikussak, is principally responsible for the observed seasonal advance of the ice front. On the other hand, the effect of submarine melting on the calving rate of Store Glacier appears to be limited. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the glacier's calving dynamics are sensitive to seasonal perturbation, but are stable on interannual timescales due to the strong topographic control on the flow regime. Our results shed light on the dynamics of calving glaciers and may help explain why neighbouring glaciers do not necessarily respond synchronously to changes in atmospheric and oceanic forcing.

Description: Deglaciation of the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia, in the 21st century observed with ASTER satellite imagery and aerial photography The Cryosphere, 8, 2367-2379, 2014 Author(s): M. Shahgedanova, G. Nosenko, S. Kutuzov, O. Rototaeva, and T. Khromova Changes in the map area of 498 glaciers located on the Main Caucasus ridge (MCR) and on Mt. Elbrus in the Greater Caucasus Mountains (Russia and Georgia) were assessed using multispectral ASTER and panchromatic Landsat imagery with 15 m spatial resolution in 1999/2001 and 2010/2012. Changes in recession rates of glacier snouts between 1987–2001 and 2001–2010 were investigated using aerial photography and ASTER imagery for a sub-sample of 44 glaciers. In total, glacier area decreased by 4.7 ± 2.1% or 19.2 ± 8.7 km 2 from 407.3 ± 5.4 km 2 to 388.1 ± 5.2 km 2 . Glaciers located in the central and western MCR lost 13.4 ± 7.3 km 2 (4.7 ± 2.5%) in total or 8.5 km 2 (5.0 ± 2.4%) and 4.9 km 2 (4.1 ± 2.7%) respectively. Glaciers on Mt. Elbrus, although located at higher elevations, lost 5.8 ± 1.4 km 2 (4.9 ± 1.2%) of their total area. The recession rates of valley glacier termini increased between 1987–2000/01 and 2000/01–2010 (2000 for the western MCR and 2001 for the central MCR and Mt.~Elbrus) from 3.8 ± 0.8, 3.2 ± 0.9 and 8.3 ± 0.8 m yr −1 to 11.9 ± 1.1, 8.7 ± 1.1 and 14.1 ± 1.1 m yr −1 in the central and western MCR and on Mt. Elbrus respectively. The highest rate of increase in glacier termini retreat was registered on the southern slope of the central MCR where it has tripled. A positive trend in summer temperatures forced glacier recession, and strong positive temperature anomalies in 1998, 2006, and 2010 contributed to the enhanced loss of ice. An increase in accumulation season precipitation observed in the northern MCR since the mid-1980s has not compensated for the effects of summer warming while the negative precipitation anomalies, observed on the southern slope of the central MCR in the 1990s, resulted in stronger glacier wastage.

Description: Glacier-like forms on Mars The Cryosphere, 8, 2047-2061, 2014 Author(s): B. Hubbard, C. Souness, and S. Brough More than 1300 glacier-like forms (GLFs) are located in Mars' mid-latitudes. These GLFs are predominantly composed of ice–dust mixtures and are visually similar to terrestrial valley glaciers, showing signs of downhill viscous deformation and an expanded former extent. However, several fundamental aspects of their behavior are virtually unknown, including temporal and spatial variations in mass balance, ice motion, landscape erosion and deposition, and hydrology. Here, we investigate the physical glaciology of martian GLFs. We use satellite images of specific examples and case studies to build on existing knowledge relating to (i) GLF current and former extent, exemplified via a GLF located in Phlegra Montes; (ii) indicators of GLF motion, focusing on the presence of surface crevasses on several GLFs; (iii) processes of GLF debris transfer, focusing on mapping and interpreting boulder trains on one GLF located in Protonilus Mensae, the analysis of which suggests a best-estimate mean GLF flow speed of 7.5 mm a −1 ; and (iv) GLF hydrology, focusing on supra-GLF gulley networks. On the basis of this information, we summarize the current state of knowledge of the glaciology of martian GLFs and identify future research avenues.

Description: Modeling the elastic transmission of tidal stresses to great distances inland in channelized ice streams The Cryosphere, 8, 2007-2029, 2014 Author(s): J. Thompson, M. Simons, and V. C. Tsai Geodetic surveys suggest that ocean tides can modulate the motion of Antarctic ice streams, even at stations many tens of kilometers inland from the grounding line. These surveys suggest that ocean tidal stresses can perturb ice stream motion at distances about an order of magnitude farther inland than tidal flexure of the ice stream alone. Recent models exploring the role of tidal perturbations in basal shear stress are primarily one- or two-dimensional, with the impact of the ice stream margins either ignored or parameterized. Here, we use two- and three-dimensional finite-element modeling to investigate transmission of tidal stresses in ice streams and the impact of considering more realistic, three-dimensional ice stream geometries. Using Rutford Ice Stream as a real-world comparison, we demonstrate that the assumption that elastic tidal stresses in ice streams propagate large distances inland fails for channelized glaciers due to an intrinsic, exponential decay in the stress caused by resistance at the ice stream margins. This behavior is independent of basal conditions beneath the ice stream and cannot be fit to observations using either elastic or nonlinear viscoelastic rheologies without nearly complete decoupling of the ice stream from its lateral margins. Our results suggest that a mechanism external to the ice stream is necessary to explain the tidal modulation of stresses far upstream of the grounding line for narrow ice streams. We propose a hydrologic model based on time-dependent variability in till strength to explain transmission of tidal stresses inland of the grounding line. This conceptual model can reproduce observations from Rutford Ice Stream.

Description: Fluctuations of a Greenlandic tidewater glacier driven by changes in atmospheric forcing: observations and modelling of Kangiata Nunaata Sermia, 1859–present The Cryosphere, 8, 2031-2045, 2014 Author(s): J. M. Lea, D. W. F. Mair, F. M. Nick, B. R. Rea, D. van As, M. Morlighem, P. W. Nienow, and A. Weidick Many tidewater glaciers in Greenland are known to have undergone significant retreat during the last century following their Little Ice Age maxima. Where it is possible to reconstruct glacier change over this period, they provide excellent records for comparison to climate records, as well as calibration/validation for numerical models. These glacier change records therefore allow for tests of numerical models that seek to simulate tidewater glacier behaviour over multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here we present a detailed record of behaviour from Kangiata Nunaata Sermia (KNS), SW Greenland, between 1859 and 2012, and compare it against available oceanographic and atmospheric temperature data between 1871 and 2012. We also use these records to evaluate the ability of a well-established one-dimensional flow-band model to replicate behaviour for the observation period. The record of terminus change demonstrates that KNS has advanced/retreated in phase with atmosphere and ocean climate anomalies averaged over multi-annual to decadal timescales. Results from an ensemble of model runs demonstrate that observed dynamics can be replicated. Model runs that provide a reasonable match to observations always require a significant atmospheric forcing component, but do not necessarily require an oceanic forcing component. Although the importance of oceanic forcing cannot be discounted, these results demonstrate that changes in atmospheric forcing are likely to be a primary driver of the terminus fluctuations of KNS from 1859 to 2012. We propose that the detail and length of the record presented makes KNS an ideal site for model validation exercises investigating links between climate, calving rates, and tidewater glacier dynamics.

Description: A catalog of high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2867-2882, 2014 Author(s): P. Stucki, S. Brönnimann, O. Martius, C. Welker, M. Imhof, N. von Wattenwyl, and N. Philipp In recent decades, extremely hazardous windstorms have caused enormous losses to buildings, infrastructure and forests in Switzerland. This has increased societal and scientific interest in the intensity and frequency of historical high-impact storms. However, high-resolution wind data and damage statistics mostly span recent decades only. For this study, we collected quantitative (e.g., volumes of windfall timber, losses relating to buildings) and descriptive (e.g., forestry or insurance reports) information on the impact of historical windstorms. To define windstorm severity, normalized and declustered quantitative data were processed by extreme value statistics. Descriptive information was classified using a conceptual guideline. Validation with independent damage information, as well as comparison with wind measurements and a reanalysis, indicates that the most hazardous winter storms are captured, while too few moderate windstorms are detected. Strong storms in the wind measurements and reanalysis are thus added to the catalog. The final catalog encompasses approximately 240 high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859. It features three robust severity classes and contains eight extreme windstorms. Evidence of high winter storm activity in the early and late 20th century compared to the mid-20th century in both damage and wind data indicates a co-variability of hazard and related damage on decadal timescales.

Description: A GIS-based model to estimate flood consequences and the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in urban areas Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2847-2865, 2014 Author(s): R. Albano, A. Sole, J. Adamowski, and L. Mancusi Efficient decision-making regarding flood risk reduction has become a priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries. Risk analysis methods and techniques are a useful tool for evaluating costs and benefits of possible interventions. Within this context, a methodology to estimate flood consequences was developed in this paper that is based on GIS, and integrated with a model that estimates the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in an urban area. The majority of the currently available approaches do not properly analyse road network connections and dependencies within systems, and as such a loss of roads could cause significant damages and problems to emergency services in cases of flooding. The proposed model is unique in that it provides a maximum-impact estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk), in the emergency phase. The results of a case study in the Puglia region in southern Italy are described to illustrate the practical applications of this newly proposed approach. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for defining a hierarchy between different infrastructure in the urban area through the identification of particular components whose operation and efficiency are critical for emergency management. This information can be used by decision-makers to prioritize risk reduction interventions in flood emergencies in urban areas, given limited financial resources.

Description: Wind waves in the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2883-2897, 2014 Author(s): V. S. Arkhipkin, F. N. Gippius, K. P. Koltermann, and G. V. Surkova In this study we describe the wind wave fields in the Black Sea. The general aims of the work were the estimation of statistical wave parameters and the assessment of interannual and seasonal wave parameter variability. The domain of this study was the entire Black Sea. Wave parameters were calculated by means of the SWAN wave model on a 5 × 5 km rectangular grid. Initial conditions (wind speed and direction) for the period between 1949 and 2010 were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. According to our calculations the average significant wave height on the Black Sea does not exceed 0.7 m. Areas of most significant heavy sea are the southwestern and the northeastern parts of the sea as expressed in the spatial distribution of significant wave heights, wave lengths and periods. Besides, long-term annual variations of wave parameters were estimated. Thus, linear trends of the annual total duration of storms and of their quantity are nearly stable over the hindcast period. However, an intensification of storm activity is observed in the 1960s–1970s.

Description: Factors affecting flood insurance purchase in residential properties in Johor, Malaysia Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3297-3310, 2014 Author(s): U. G. Aliagha, T. E. Jin, W. W. Choong, M. Nadzri Jaafar, and H. M. Ali High-impact floods have become a virtually annual experience in Malaysia, yet flood insurance has remained a grossly neglected part of comprehensive integrated flood risk management. Using discriminant analysis, this study seeks to identify the demand-side variables that best predict flood insurance purchase and risk aversion between two groups of residential homeowners in three districts of Johor State, Malaysia: those who purchased flood insurance and those who did not. Our results revealed an overall 34% purchase rate, with Kota Tinggi district having the highest (44%) and thus the highest degree of flood risk aversion. The Wilks' lambda F test for equality of group means, standardised discriminant function coefficients, structure correlation, and canonical correlation has clearly shown that there are strong significant attribute differences between the two groups of homeowners, based on the measures of objective flood risk exposure, subjective risk perception, and socio-economic cum demographic variables. However, the measures of subjective risk perception were found to be more predictive of flood insurance purchase and flood risk aversion.

Description: Moraine-dammed lake failures in Patagonia and assessment of outburst susceptibility in the Baker Basin Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3243-3259, 2014 Author(s): P. Iribarren Anacona, K.P. Norton, and A. Mackintosh Glacier retreat since the Little Ice Age has resulted in the development or expansion of hundreds of glacial lakes in Patagonia. Some of these lakes have produced large (≥ 10 6 m 3 ) Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) damaging inhabited areas. GLOF hazard studies in Patagonia have been mainly based on the analysis of short-term series (≤ 50 years) of flood data and until now no attempt has been made to identify the relative susceptibility of lakes to failure. Power schemes and associated infrastructure are planned for Patagonian basins that have historically been affected by GLOFs, and we now require a thorough understanding of the characteristics of dangerous lakes in order to assist with hazard assessment and planning. In this paper, the conditioning factors of 16 outbursts from moraine-dammed lakes in Patagonia were analysed. These data were used to develop a classification scheme designed to assess outburst susceptibility, based on image classification techniques, flow routine algorithms and the Analytical Hierarchy Process. This scheme was applied to the Baker Basin, Chile, where at least seven moraine-dammed lakes have failed in historic time. We identified 386 moraine-dammed lakes in the Baker Basin of which 28 were classified with high or very high outburst susceptibility. Commonly, lakes with high outburst susceptibility are in contact with glaciers and have moderate (〉 8°) to steep (〉 15°) dam outlet slopes, akin to failed lakes in Patagonia. The proposed classification scheme is suitable for first-order GLOF hazard assessments in this region. However, rapidly changing glaciers in Patagonia make detailed analysis and monitoring of hazardous lakes and glaciated areas upstream from inhabited areas or critical infrastructure necessary, in order to better prepare for hazards emerging from an evolving cryosphere.

Description: Epic landslide erosion from mountain roads in Yunnan, China – challenges for sustainable development Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3093-3104, 2014 Author(s): R. C. Sidle, M. Ghestem, and A. Stokes Expanding systems of mountain roads in developing countries have significantly increased the risk of landslides and sedimentation, and have created vulnerabilities for residents and aquatic resources. We measured landslide erosion along seven road segments in steep terrain in the upper Salween River basin, Yunnan, China and estimated sediment delivery to channels. Landslide erosion rates along the roads ranged from 2780 to 48 235 Mg ha −1 yr −1 , the upper end of this range being the highest rate ever reported along mountain roads. The two roads with the highest landslide erosion (FG1 = 12 966 Mg ha −1 yr −1 ; DXD = 48 235 Mg ha −1 yr −1 ) had some of the highest sediment delivery rates to channels (about 80 and 86%, respectively). Overall, 3 times more landslides occurred along cut slopes compared to fill slopes, but fill slope failures had a combined mass 〉 1.3 times that of cut slope failures. Many small landslides occurred along road cuts, but these were often trapped on the road surface. Given the magnitude of the landslide problem and the lack of attention to this issue, a more sustainable approach for mountain road development is outlined based on an analysis of landslide susceptibility and how thresholds for landslide trigger mechanisms would be modified by road location and different construction techniques.

Description: Evaluation of forest fire models on a large observation database Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3077-3091, 2014 Author(s): J. B. Filippi, V. Mallet, and B. Nader This paper presents the evaluation of several fire propagation models using a large set of observed fires. The observation base is composed of 80 Mediterranean fire cases of different sizes, which come with the limited information available in an operational context (burned surface and approximative ignition point). Simulations for all cases are carried out with four different front velocity models. The results are compared with several error scoring methods applied to each of the 320 simulations. All tasks are performed in a fully automated manner, with simulations run as first guesses with no tuning for any of the models or cases. This approach leads to a wide range of simulation performance, including some of the bad simulation results to be expected in an operational context. Disregarding the quality of the input data, it is found that the models can be ranked based on their performance and that the most complex models outperform the more empirical ones. Data and source codes used for this paper are freely available to the community.

Description: A new approach to mapping permafrost and change incorporating uncertainties in ground conditions and climate projections The Cryosphere, 8, 2177-2194, 2014 Author(s): Y. Zhang, I. Olthof, R. Fraser, and S. A. Wolfe Spatially detailed information on permafrost distribution and change with climate is important for land use planning, infrastructure development, and environmental assessments. However, the required soil and surficial geology maps in the North are coarse, and projected climate scenarios vary widely. Considering these uncertainties, we propose a new approach to mapping permafrost distribution and change by integrating remote sensing data, field measurements, and a process-based model. Land cover types from satellite imagery are used to capture the general land conditions and to improve the resolution of existing permafrost maps. For each land cover type, field observations are used to estimate the probabilities of different ground conditions. A process-based model is used to quantify the evolution of permafrost for each ground condition under three representative climate scenarios (low, medium, and high warming). From the model results, the probability of permafrost occurrence and the most likely permafrost conditions are determined. We apply this approach at 20 m resolution to a large area in Northwest Territories, Canada. Mapped permafrost conditions are in agreement with field observations and other studies. The data requirements, model robustness, and computation time are reasonable, and this approach may serve as a practical means to mapping permafrost and changes at high resolution in other regions.

Description: Seasonal cycle and long-term trend of solar energy fluxes through Arctic sea ice The Cryosphere, 8, 2219-2233, 2014 Author(s): S. Arndt and M. Nicolaus Arctic sea ice has not only decreased in volume during the last decades, but has also changed in its physical properties towards a thinner and more seasonal ice cover. These changes strongly impact the energy budget, and might affect the ice-associated ecosystems. In this study, we quantify solar shortwave fluxes through sea ice for the entire Arctic during all seasons. To focus on sea-ice-related processes, we exclude fluxes through open water, scaling linearly with sea ice concentration. We present a new parameterization of light transmittance through sea ice for all seasons as a function of variable sea ice properties. The maximum monthly mean solar heat flux under the ice of 30 × 10 5 Jm −2 occurs in June, enough heat to melt 0.3 m of sea ice. Furthermore, our results suggest that 96% of the annual solar heat input through sea ice occurs during only a 4-month period from May to August. Applying the new parameterization to remote sensing and reanalysis data from 1979 to 2011, we find an increase in transmitted light of 1.5% yr −1 for all regions. This corresponds to an increase in potential sea ice bottom melt of 63% over the 33-year study period. Sensitivity studies reveal that the results depend strongly on the timing of melt onset and the correct classification of ice types. Assuming 2 weeks earlier melt onset, the annual transmitted solar radiation to the upper ocean increases by 20%. Continuing the observed transition from a mixed multi-year/first-year sea ice cover to a seasonal ice cover results in an increase in light transmittance by an additional 18%.

Description: Post-LIA glacier changes along a latitudinal transect in the Central Italian Alps The Cryosphere, 8, 2235-2252, 2014 Author(s): R. Scotti, F. Brardinoni, and G. B. Crosta The variability of glacier response to atmospheric temperature rise in different topo-climatic settings is still a matter of debate. To address this question in the Central Italian Alps, we compile a post-LIA (Little Ice Age) multitemporal glacier inventory (1860–1954–1990–2003–2007) along a latitudinal transect that originates north of the continental divide in the Livigno Mountains and extends south through the Disgrazia and Orobie ranges, encompassing continental-to-maritime climatic settings. In these sub-regions, we examine the area change of 111 glaciers. Overall, the total glacierized area has declined from 34.1 to 10.1 km 2 , with a substantial increase in the number of small glaciers due to fragmentation. The average annual decrease (AAD) in glacier area has risen by about 1 order of magnitude from 1860–1990 (Livigno: 0.45; Orobie: 0.42; and Disgrazia: 0.39 % a −1 ) to 1990–2007 (Livigno: 3.08; Orobie: 2.44; and Disgrazia: 2.27 % a −1 ). This ranking changes when considering glaciers smaller than 0.5 km 2 only (i.e., we remove the confounding caused by large glaciers in Disgrazia), so that post-1990 AAD follows the latitudinal gradient and Orobie glaciers stand out (Livigno: 4.07; Disgrazia: 3.57; and Orobie: 2.47 % a −1 ). More recent (2007–2013) field-based mass balances in three selected small glaciers confirm post-1990 trends showing the consistently highest retreat in continental Livigno and minimal area loss in maritime Orobie, with Disgrazia displaying transitional behavior. We argue that the recent resilience of glaciers in Orobie is a consequence of their decoupling from synoptic atmospheric temperature trends, a decoupling that arises from the combination of local topographic configuration (i.e., deep, north-facing cirques) and high winter precipitation, which ensures high snow-avalanche supply, as well as high summer shading and sheltering. Our hypothesis is further supported by the lack of correlations between glacier change and glacier attributes in Orobie, as well as by the higher variability in ELA,sub〉0 positioning, post-LIA glacier change, and interannual mass balances, as we move southward along the transect.

Description: Goal-oriented networks and capacity building for natural hazards – examples in the Dresden region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 81-94, 2014 Author(s): G. Hutter Networks and networking are important for building social capacities for natural hazards. However, up to now, it has been an open question which types of networks contribute to capacity building under certain circumstances. The paper focuses on the type of a goal-oriented network. The distinction between goal orientation and goal directedness is used to show the following: goal directedness of networks to build capacities for natural hazards involves intensive and continuous processes of "sensemaking" (Weick, 1995) to specify the network goal. This process of specifying an initial goal statement is important in small and large networks at the regional level. The governance form of a lead organization network facilitates goal specification. The paper illustrates these findings through evidence from two case studies conducted in the Dresden region in Germany.

Description: A decade (2002–2012) of supraglacial lake volume estimates across Russell Glacier, West Greenland The Cryosphere, 8, 107-121, 2014 Author(s): A. A. W. Fitzpatrick, A. L. Hubbard, J. E. Box, D. J. Quincey, D. van As, A. P. B. Mikkelsen, S. H. Doyle, C. F. Dow, B. Hasholt, and G. A. Jones Supraglacial lakes represent an ephemeral storage buffer for meltwater runoff and lead to significant, yet short-lived, episodes of ice-flow acceleration by decanting large meltwater and energy fluxes into the ice sheet's hydrological system. Here, a methodology for calculating lake volume is used to quantify storage and drainage across Russell Glacier, West Greenland, between 2002 and 2012. Using 502 MODIS scenes, water volume at ~200 seasonally occurring lakes was derived using a depth–reflectance relationship, which was independently calibrated and field validated against lake bathymetry. The inland expansion of lakes is strongly correlated with air temperature: during the record melt years of 2010 and 2012, lakes formed and drained earlier, attaining their maximum volume 38 and 20 days earlier than the 11 yr mean, as well as occupying a greater area and forming at higher elevations (〉 1800 m) than previously. Despite occupying under 2% of the study area, lakes delay the transmission of up to 7–13% of the bulk meltwater discharged. Although the results are subject to an observational bias caused by periods of cloud cover, we estimate that across Russell Glacier, 28% of supraglacial lakes drain rapidly ( 〈 4 days). Clustering of such events in space and time suggests a synoptic trigger mechanism. Further, we find no evidence to support a unifying critical size or depth-dependent drainage threshold.

Description: Assessing the quality of landslide susceptibility maps – case study Lower Austria Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 95-118, 2014 Author(s): H. Petschko, A. Brenning, R. Bell, J. Goetz, and T. Glade Landslide susceptibility maps are helpful tools to identify areas potentially prone to future landslide occurrence. As more and more national and provincial authorities demand for these maps to be computed and implemented in spatial planning strategies, several aspects of the quality of the landslide susceptibility model and the resulting classified map are of high interest. In this study of landslides in Lower Austria, we focus on the model form uncertainty to assess the quality of a flexible statistical modelling technique, the generalized additive model (GAM). The study area (15 850 km 2 ) is divided into 16 modelling domains based on lithology classes. A model representing the entire study area is constructed by combining these models. The performances of the models are assessed using repeated k -fold cross-validation with spatial and random subsampling. This reflects the variability of performance estimates arising from sampling variation. Measures of spatial transferability and thematic consistency are applied to empirically assess model quality. We also analyse and visualize the implications of spatially varying prediction uncertainties regarding the susceptibility map classes by taking into account the confidence intervals of model predictions. The 95% confidence limits fall within the same susceptibility class in 85% of the study area. Overall, this study contributes to advancing open communication and assessment of model quality related to statistical landslide susceptibility models.

Description: Review Article: Structural flood-protection measures referring to several European case studies Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 135-142, 2014 Author(s): A. Kryžanowski, M. Brilly, S. Rusjan, and S. Schnabl The paper presents a review of structural measures that were taken to cope with floods in some cities along the Danube River, such as Vienna, Bratislava, and Belgrade. These cities were also considered as case studies within the KULTURisk project. The structural measures are reviewed and compared to each other according to the type, duration of application, the return period of the design flood event, how the project measures are integrated into spatial planning and the problems that occur in the flood defences today. Based on this review, some suggestions are given on how to improve the flood risk management in flood-prone areas.

Description: Modeling volcanic ash resuspension – application to the 14–18 October 2011 outbreak episode in central Patagonia, Argentina Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 119-133, 2014 Author(s): A. Folch, L. Mingari, M. S. Osores, and E. Collini Volcanic fallout deposits from the June 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption on central Patagonia were remobilized in several occasions months after their emplacement. In particular, during 14–18 October 2011, an intense outbreak episode generated widespread volcanic clouds that were dispersed across Argentina, causing multiple impacts in the environment, affecting the air quality and disrupting airports. Fine ash particles in volcanic fallout deposits can be resuspended under favorable meteorological conditions, particularly during strong wind episodes in arid environments with low soil moisture and poor vegetation coverage. As opposed to eruption-formed ash clouds, modeling of resuspension-formed ash clouds has received little attention. In consequence, there are no emission schemes specially developed and calibrated for resuspended volcanic ash, and few operational products exists to model and forecast the formation and dispersal of resuspension ash clouds. Here we implement three dust emission schemes of increasing complexity in the FALL3D tephra dispersal model and use the 14–18 October 2011 outbreak episode as a model test case. We calibrate the emission schemes and validate the results of the coupled WRF–ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting – Advanced Research WRF)/FALL3D modeling system using satellite imagery and measurements of visibility (a quantity related to total suspended particle concentration at the surface) and particulate matter (PM 10 ) concentration at several meteorological and air quality stations located at Argentina and Uruguay. Our final goal is to test the capability of the modeling system to become, in the near future, an operational forecast product for volcanic ash resuspension events.

Description: Sensitivity and evaluation of current fire risk and future projections due to climate change: the case study of Greece Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 143-153, 2014 Author(s): A. Karali, M. Hatzaki, C. Giannakopoulos, A. Roussos, G. Xanthopoulos, and V. Tenentes Current trends in the Mediterranean climate, and more specifically in Greece, indicate longer and more intense summer droughts that even extend out of season. In connection to this, the frequency of forest fire occurrence and intensity is on the rise. In the present study, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is used in order to investigate the relationship between fire risk and meteorological conditions in Greece. FWI is a meteorologically based index designed in Canada and used worldwide, including the Mediterranean Basin, to estimate fire danger in a generalised fuel type based solely on weather observations. Here, an evaluation of the index is initially performed for the Greek territory using fire observations that cover a 15 yr period. Three critical fire risk threshold values are established for the area of Greece based on daily mean meteorological data: FWI = 15, FWI = 30 and FWI = 45, increasing from the northwest to the southeast. Subsequently, a regional climate model is employed providing input for the FWI system to investigate the impacts of climate change on fire risk for two future time periods, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, under the A1B emissions scenario. Days with critical fire risk are expected to increase by as many as 50 days per year by the end of the century.

Description: A satellite-based snow cover climatology (1985–2011) for the European Alps derived from AVHRR data The Cryosphere, 8, 73-90, 2014 Author(s): F. Hüsler, T. Jonas, M. Riffler, J. P. Musial, and S. Wunderle Seasonal snow cover is of great environmental and socio-economic importance for the European Alps. Therefore a high priority has been assigned to quantifying its temporal and spatial variability. Complementary to land-based monitoring networks, optical satellite observations can be used to derive spatially comprehensive information on snow cover extent. For understanding long-term changes in alpine snow cover extent, the data acquired by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors mounted onboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) and Meteorological Operational satellite (MetOp) platforms offer a unique source of information. In this paper, we present the first space-borne 1 km snow extent climatology for the Alpine region derived from AVHRR data over the period 1985–2011. The objective of this study is twofold: first, to generate a new set of cloud-free satellite snow products using a specific cloud gap-filling technique and second, to examine the spatiotemporal distribution of snow cover in the European Alps over the last 27 yr from the satellite perspective. For this purpose, snow parameters such as snow onset day, snow cover duration (SCD), melt-out date and the snow cover area percentage (SCA) were employed to analyze spatiotemporal variability of snow cover over the course of three decades. On the regional scale, significant trends were found toward a shorter SCD at lower elevations in the south-east and south-west. However, our results do not show any significant trends in the monthly mean SCA over the last 27 yr. This is in agreement with other research findings and may indicate a deceleration of the decreasing snow trend in the Alpine region. Furthermore, such data may provide spatially and temporally homogeneous snow information for comprehensive use in related research fields (i.e., hydrologic and economic applications) or can serve as a reference for climate models.

Description: Corrigendum to "Boundary conditions of an active West Antarctic subglacial lake: implications for storage of water beneath the ice sheet" published in The Cryosphere, 8, 15–24, 2014 The Cryosphere, 8, 123-123, 2014 Author(s): M. J. Siegert, N. Ross, H. Corr, B. Smith, T. Jordan, R. G. Bingham, F. Ferraccioli, D. M. Rippin, and A. Le Brocq No abstract available.

Description: Updated cloud physics in a regional atmospheric climate model improves the modelled surface energy balance of Antarctica The Cryosphere, 8, 125-135, 2014 Author(s): J. M. van Wessem, C. H. Reijmer, J. T. M. Lenaerts, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, and E. van Meijgaard In this study the effects of changes in the physics package of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2 on the modelled surface energy balance, near-surface temperature and wind speed of Antarctica are presented. The physics package update primarily consists of an improved turbulent and radiative flux scheme and a revised cloud scheme that includes a parameterisation for ice cloud super-saturation. The ice cloud super-saturation has led to more moisture being transported onto the continent, resulting in more and optically thicker clouds and more downward long-wave radiation. Overall, the updated model better represents the surface energy balance, based on a comparison with 〉750 months of data from nine automatic weather stations located in East Antarctica. Especially the representation of the turbulent sensible heat flux and net long-wave radiative flux has improved with a decrease in biases of up to 40%. As a result, modelled surface temperatures have increased and the bias, when compared to 10 m snow temperatures from 64 ice-core observations, has decreased from −2.3 K to −1.3 K. The weaker surface temperature inversion consequently improves the representation of the sensible heat flux, whereas wind speed biases remain unchanged. However, significant model biases remain, partly because RACMO2 at a resolution of 27 km is unable to resolve steep topography.

Description: Assessment methodology for the prediction of landslide dam hazard Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 557-567, 2014 Author(s): S. F. Dal Sasso, A. Sole, S. Pascale, F. Sdao, A. Bateman Pinzòn, and V. Medina This paper represents a contribution to the study of hazard caused by the interaction between landslides and river courses. The effects of such interferences are often catastrophic and could include the formation of upstream lakes, potential dam failure, river bed dynamics and morphological alterations. These scenarios could be substantially reduced if it was possible to predict the eventuality that a moving landslide would block the river. This is a complex topic because it involves composite geomorphic phenomena concerning both hillslope and river systems and their interpretation, through model approaches, is still under development and testing. In this study, a methodology developed in the framework of European Research Project IMPRINTS (FP7) was adopted and integrated in order to identify the areas of triggering and propagation of landslides and to characterize the possible scenarios of the interaction with river networks. Different deterministic and probabilistic approaches, calibrated using a case test in the middle valley of the Noce River in Basilicata (Italy), were applied and compared at basin scale.

Description: Landslide and slope stability evaluation in the historical town of Kruja, Albania Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 545-556, 2014 Author(s): Y. Muceku and O. Korini This paper describes landslides and slope stability evaluation in the urban area of Kruja, Albania. Kruja is a historical and heritage center, due to the existence of many important cultural monuments, including "Skanderbeg" castle and Bazaar square, etc. The urban area of Kruja has been affected by landslide effects, in the past and also the present. From this phenomenon many engineering objects such as buildings, roads, etc., are damaged and demolished. From engineering geological mapping at scale 1:5000 it is observed that many active landslides have dramatically increased in activity since the 1980s. The landslide types found in the studied area are earthslides, debris flow, as well as rockfall and rock rolling. Also, from field works and laboratory analysis, the slope stability of the whole urban area has been determined; for this purpose the studied zone is divided into stable and unstable areas, which helps to better understand mass movement activity as one of the most harmful hazards of geodynamic phenomena.

Description: Results of the post flash-flood disaster investigations in the Transylvanian Depression (Romania) during the last decade (2001–2010) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 535-544, 2014 Author(s): V. Arghiuş, A. Ozunu, I. Samara, and G. Roşian Flash-flood disasters are very rare in the Transylvanian Depression. In the last decades just three events were signalled in the study area, all of them during the last 10 years. The flash floods occurring in the study area during the last decade had a significant impact on several localities situated at the Transylvanian Depression border. Based on the post flash-flood investigation, the present study intends to find out the main characteristics of the flash floods and the causes that have led to disasters in a region rarely affected by such kinds of events. Analyzing the hydrological data, it has been seen that the maximum intensity of the flash floods was observed in the upper and middle basins. By comparing the unit peak discharges from the studied region with other specific peak discharges related to the significant flash floods from Romania, it was noticed that the events from the Transylvanian Depression have moderate to low intensity. On the other hand, the results showed that besides high stream power and unexpected character common to flash floods, the inappropriate flood risk management measures increased the dimension of the negative effects, leading to tens of lives lost and economical damages of tens of millions of dollars.

Description: Application of GA–SVM method with parameter optimization for landslide development prediction Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 525-533, 2014 Author(s): X. Z. Li and J. M. Kong Prediction of the landslide development process is always a hot issue in landslide research. So far, many methods for landslide displacement series prediction have been proposed. The support vector machine (SVM) has been proved to be a novel algorithm with good performance. However, the performance strongly depends on the right selection of the parameters ( C and γ) of the SVM model. In this study, we present an application of genetic algorithm and support vector machine (GA–SVM) method with parameter optimization in landslide displacement rate prediction. We selected a typical large-scale landslide in a hydro-electrical engineering area of southwest China as a case. On the basis of analyzing the basic characteristics and monitoring data of the landslide, a single-factor GA–SVM model and a multi-factor GA–SVM model of the landslide were built. Moreover, the models were compared with single-factor and multi-factor SVM models of the landslide. The results show that the four models have high prediction accuracies, but the accuracies of GA–SVM models are slightly higher than those of SVM models, and the accuracies of multi-factor models are slightly higher than those of single-factor models for the landslide prediction. The accuracy of the multi-factor GA–SVM models is the highest, with the smallest root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0009 and the highest relation index (RI) of 0.9992.

Description: The anomalous low and high temperatures of 2012 over Greece – an explanation from a meteorological and climatological perspective Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 501-507, 2014 Author(s): K. Tolika, P. Maheras, I. Pytharoulis, and C. Anagnostopoulou 2012 was the hottest year in Greece on the basis of the available record dating back to 1958, displaying at the same time the widest annual temperature range. During the summer and autumn months, numerous regions in the domain of study experienced record-breaking maximum and minimum temperatures. Conversely, the winter period was particularly cold and January one of the coldest months over the last 55 yr. The analysis of the cold period indicates that the synoptic conditions resemble the positive phase of the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMP). The predominance of these cool conditions seems to be related primarily to an intense NNW or NNE atmospheric circulation, as a consequence of the positive EMP phase. Moreover, the reduction in the floating sea ice emerges as a key driver of the formation of a low-pressure pattern and the reinforcement of the trough south of Scandinavia, which in turn strengthened the Siberia High east of the trough. This reinforcement resulted in a blocking pattern and in favorable conditions for the EMP formation. The atmospheric circulation during the prolonged high-temperature period resembles, respectively, the negative phase of North Sea–Caspian Pattern teleconnection. The observed positive pole, in conjunction with the strong southwestern circulation, results in temperature increases and in the development of a smooth pressure field that contributes to the weakening of the Etesian winds and therefore to calm conditions over the continental areas.

Description: Evaluation of wildland fire smoke plume dynamics and aerosol load using UV scanning lidar and fire–atmosphere modelling during the Mediterranean Letia 2010 experiment Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 509-523, 2014 Author(s): V. Leroy-Cancellieri, P. Augustin, J. B. Filippi, C. Mari, M. Fourmentin, F. Bosseur, F. Morandini, and H. Delbarre Vegetation fires emit large amount of gases and aerosols which are detrimental to human health. Smoke exposure near and downwind of fires depends on the fire propagation, the atmospheric circulations and the burnt vegetation. A better knowledge of the interaction between wildfire and atmosphere is a primary requirement to investigate fire smoke and particle transport. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the usefulness of an UV scanning lidar to characterise the fire smoke plume and consequently validate fire–atmosphere model simulations. An instrumented burn was conducted in a Mediterranean area typical of ones frequently subject to wildfire with low dense shrubs. Using lidar measurements positioned near the experimental site, fire smoke plume was thoroughly characterised by its optical properties, edge and dynamics. These parameters were obtained by combining methods based on lidar inversion technique, wavelet edge detection and a backscatter barycentre technique. The smoke plume displacement was determined using a digital video camera coupled with the lidar. The simulation was performed using a mesoscale atmospheric model in a large eddy simulation configuration (Meso-NH) coupled to a fire propagation physical model (ForeFire), taking into account the effect of wind, slope and fuel properties. A passive numerical scalar tracer was injected in the model at fire location to mimic the smoke plume. The simulated fire smoke plume width remained within the edge smoke plume obtained from lidar measurements. The maximum smoke injection derived from lidar backscatter coefficients and the simulated passive tracer was around 200 m. The vertical position of the simulated plume barycentre was systematically below the barycentre derived from the lidar backscatter coefficients due to the oversimplified properties of the passive tracer compared to real aerosol particles. Simulated speed and horizontal location of the plume compared well with the observations derived from the videography and lidar method, suggesting that fire convection and advection were correctly taken into account.

Description: A model-based study of the wind regime over the Corinthian Gulf Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 459-472, 2014 Author(s): I. Koletsis, V. Kotroni, and K. Lagouvardos The Corinthian Gulf is a narrow sea-level passage surrounded by a steep complex topography that consists of high mountains as well as elevated and sea-level gaps and straits. The complex terrain is expected to affect the wind flow in the area that often experiences high winds, with important consequences on the commercial and recreational activities over the gulf's maritime area. For that reason, a model-based study of the wind regime over the Corinthian Gulf has been created, as observational data over the area are recent and spatially sparse. Analysis of 5 yr of data from the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5) model reveals that the wind regime of the gulf is greatly influenced by the topography. Easterly winds occur more frequently and are stronger in the maritime area in the western edge of the gulf, with a frequency of occurrence on the order of 70%. Moreover, the most intense wind events at this area occur during the winter season (December, January, and February). Finally the paper also provides a discussion on the synoptic patterns, which lead to the strongest wind events in the studied area.

Description: Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 473-483, 2014 Author(s): M. Müller and M. Kaspar After an overview of existing methods, we present a novel method of "event-adjusted" evaluation of extremeness of weather and climate events. It is based on optimization of both the considered area and the time duration for every event. The method consists of three steps: (i) estimation of return periods of a representative variable at individual sites, performed separately for various time windows; (ii) spatial interpolation of the point return period data; and (iii) searching the area and the time window in which the extremeness of the event was maximum. The extremeness is quantified as the common logarithm of the spatial geometric mean of the return periods multiplied by the radius of a circle of the same area as the one over which the geometric mean is taken. The maximum product is referred to as the weather extremity index (WEI). Two precipitation events, which affected the Czech Republic in May and in August 2010, were evaluated by the WEI for illustration. Validation of the method on sufficiently long data series is still needed. Moreover, the WEI is generally applicable regardless of the studied phenomenon (heavy rains, heat waves, windstorms, etc.). This makes it possible to study various weather and climate extremes from the viewpoint of possible recent and future changes in their frequency, seasonal distribution, and circulation conditions accompanying them.

Description: Investigating volcanic hazard in Cape Verde Islands through geophysical monitoring: network description and first results Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 485-499, 2014 Author(s): B. Faria and J. F. B. D. Fonseca We describe a new geophysical network deployed in the Cape Verde Archipelago for the assessment and monitoring of volcanic hazards as well as the first results from the network. Across the archipelago, the ages of volcanic activity range from ca. 20 Ma to present. In general, older islands are in the east and younger ones are in the west, but there is no clear age progression of eruptive activity as widely separated islands have erupted contemporaneously on geological timescales. The overall magmatic rate is low, and there are indications that eruptive activity is episodic, with intervals between episodes of intense activity ranging from 1 to 4 Ma. Although only Fogo Island has experienced eruptions (mainly effusive) in the historic period (last 550 yr), Brava and Santo Antão have experienced numerous geologically recent eruptions, including violent explosive eruptions, and show felt seismic activity and geothermal activity. Evidence for recent volcanism in the other islands is more limited and the emphasis has therefore been on monitoring of the three critical islands of Fogo, Brava and Santo Antão, where volcanic hazard levels are highest. Geophysical monitoring of all three islands is now in operation. The first results show that on Fogo, the seismic activity is dominated by hydrothermal events and volcano-tectonic events that may be related to settling of the edifice after the 1995 eruption; in Brava by volcano-tectonic events (mostly offshore), and in Santo Antão by volcano-tectonic events, medium-frequency events and harmonic tremor. Both in Brava and in Santo Antão, the recorded seismicity indicates that relatively shallow magmatic systems are present and causing deformation of the edifices that may include episodes of dike intrusion.

Description: Karst show caves – how DTN technology as used in space assists automatic environmental monitoring and tourist protection – experiment in Postojna Cave Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 443-457, 2014 Author(s): F. Gabrovšek, B. Grašič, M. Z. Božnar, P. Mlakar, M. Udén, and E. Davies The paper presents an experiment demonstrating a novel and successful application of delay- and disruption-tolerant networking (DTN) technology for automatic data transfer in a karst cave early warning and measuring system. The experiment took place inside the Postojna Cave in Slovenia, which is open to tourists. Several automatic meteorological measuring stations are set up inside the cave, as an adjunct to the surveillance infrastructure; the regular data transfer provided by the DTN technology allows the surveillance system to take on the role of an early warning system (EWS). One of the stations is set up alongside the railway tracks, which allows the tourist to travel inside the cave by train. The experiment was carried out by placing a DTN "data mule" (a DTN-enabled computer with WiFi connection) on the train and by upgrading the meteorological station with a DTN-enabled WiFi transmission system. When the data mule is in the wireless drive-by mode, it collects measurement data from the station over a period of several seconds as the train without stopping passes the stationary equipment, and delivers data at the final train station by the cave entrance. This paper describes an overview of the experimental equipment and organization allowing the use of a DTN system for data collection and an EWS inside karst caves where there is regular traffic of tourists and researchers.

Description: Numerical simulations of tsunamis generated by underwater volcanic explosions at Karymskoye lake (Kamchatka, Russia) and Kolumbo volcano (Aegean Sea, Greece) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 401-412, 2014 Author(s): M. Ulvrová, R. Paris, K. Kelfoun, and P. Nomikou Increasing human activities along the coasts of the world provoke the necessity to assess tsunami hazard from different sources (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity). In this paper, we simulate tsunamis generated by underwater volcanic explosions from (1) a submerged vent in a shallow water lake (Karymskoye Lake, Kamchatka), and (2) from Kolumbo submarine volcano (7 km NE of Santorini, Aegean Sea, Greece). The 1996 tsunami in Karymskoye lake is a well-documented example and thus serves as a case study for validating the calculations. The numerical model reproduces realistically the tsunami run-ups measured onshore. Systematic numerical study of tsunamis generated by explosions of the Kolumbo volcano is then conducted for a wide range of energies. Results show that in case of reawakening, the Kolumbo volcano might represent a significant tsunami hazard for the northern, eastern and southern coasts of Santorini, even for small-power explosions.

Description: The snow storm of 8 March 2010 in Catalonia (Spain): a paradigmatic wet-snow event with a high societal impact Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 427-441, 2014 Author(s): M. C. Llasat, M. Turco, P. Quintana-Seguí, and M. Llasat-Botija A heavy precipitation event swept over Catalonia (NE Spain) on 8 March 2010, with a total amount that exceeded 100 mm locally and snowfall of more than 60 cm near the coast. Unusual for this region and at this time of the year, this snowfall event affected mainly the coastal region and was accompanied by thunderstorms and strong wind gusts in some areas. Most of the damage was due to "wet snow", a kind of snow that favours accretion on power lines and causes line-breaking and subsequent interruption of the electricity supply. This paper conducts an interdisciplinary analysis of the event to show its great societal impact and the role played by the recently developed social networks (it has been called the first "Snowfall 2.0"), as well to analyse the meteorological factors associated with the major damage, and to propose an indicator that could summarise them. With this aim, the paper introduces the event and its societal impact and compares it with other important snowfalls that have affected the Catalan coast, using the PRESSGAMA database. The second part of the paper shows the event's main meteorological features and analyses the near-surface atmospheric variables responsible for the major damage through the application of the SAFRAN (Système d'analyse fournissant des renseignements atmosphériques à la neige) mesoscale analysis, which, together with the proposed "wind, wet-snow index" (WWSI), allows to estimate the severity of the event. This snow storm provides further evidence of our vulnerability to natural hazards and highlights the importance of a multidisciplinary approach in analysing societal impact and the meteorological factors responsible for this kind of event.

Description: Regional economic impacts of natural hazards – the case of the 2005 Alpine flood event in Tyrol (Austria) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 359-378, 2014 Author(s): C. Pfurtscheller Natural hazards have substantial impacts on economies on all scales. While the measurement of direct effects seems manageable, less is known about the dimensions of economic effects, especially on local and regional scales. The lack of standardized terminology, empirical data and methods currently hampers profound decision support. In our study of the 2005 flood event in the Federal State of Tyrol (Austria), which triggered about 264 million Euros in direct losses, we surveyed companies from all sectors of the economy to identify the drivers of economic effects. The main aim of the study was to assess the regional economic impacts on the gross regional product by the 2005 floods without macro-economic modelling techniques using bottom-up data. Using basic quantitative and qualitative methods, we established and analysed a data pool of questionnaire and interview results as well as direct loss data. Based on this empirical evidence, we estimated the decline in gross regional product in the study area at NUTS-3 level. We observed that disrupted traffic networks, for instance, had very negative effects on the regional economy. In addition, we identified economic winners of severe hazard impacts and estimated the amount of increasing economic flows (economic stimuli), based on compensation payments. Finally, the net effect can be estimated balancing the negative and positive effects of the flood event. The methods and results of this study can help to improve ex post loss estimations, and with it, ex ante methods for the cost efficiency of risk reduction measures, e.g. cost–benefit analysis. However, much effort is needed to improve the data basis on economic effects measured as a change in economic flows.

Description: The value of integrating information from multiple hazards for flood risk analysis and management Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 379-400, 2014 Author(s): J. T. Castillo-Rodríguez, I. Escuder-Bueno, L. Altarejos-García, and A. Serrano-Lombillo This article presents a methodology for estimating flood risk in urban areas integrating pluvial flooding, river flooding and failure of both small and large dams. The first part includes a review of basic concepts on flood risk analysis, evaluation and management. Flood risk analyses may be developed at local, regional and national level, however a general methodology to perform a quantitative flood risk analysis including different flood hazards is still required. The second part describes the proposed methodology, which presents an integrated approach – combining pluvial, river flooding and flooding from dam failure, as applied to a case study: an urban area located downstream of a dam under construction. The methodology enhances the approach developed within the SUFRI project ("Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management to cope with the residual risk", 2009–2011). This article also shows how outcomes from flood risk analysis provide better and more complete information to inform authorities, local entities and the stakeholders involved in decision-making with regard to flood risk management.

Description: Efficient GIS-based model-driven method for flood risk management and its application in central China Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 331-346, 2014 Author(s): Y. Liu, J. Zhou, L. Song, Q. Zou, J. Guo, and Y. Wang In recent years, an important development in flood management has been the focal shift from flood protection towards flood risk management. This change greatly promoted the progress of flood control research in a multidisciplinary way. Moreover, given the growing complexity and uncertainty in many decision situations of flood risk management, traditional methods, e.g., tight-coupling integration of one or more quantitative models, are not enough to provide decision support for managers. Within this context, this paper presents a beneficial methodological framework to enhance the effectiveness of decision support systems, through the dynamic adaptation of support regarding the needs of the decision-maker. In addition, we illustrate a loose-coupling technical prototype for integrating heterogeneous elements, such as multi-source data, multidisciplinary models, GIS tools and existing systems. The main innovation is the application of model-driven concepts, which put the system in a state of continuous iterative optimization. We define the new system as a model-driven decision support system (MDSS ). Two characteristics that differentiate the MDSS are as follows: (1) it is made accessible to non-technical specialists; and (2) it has a higher level of adaptability and compatibility. Furthermore, the MDSS was employed to manage the flood risk in the Jingjiang flood diversion area, located in central China near the Yangtze River. Compared with traditional solutions, we believe that this model-driven method is efficient, adaptable and flexible, and thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk management.

Description: Rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Calabria, southern Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 317-330, 2014 Author(s): C. Vennari, S. L. Gariano, L. Antronico, M. T. Brunetti, G. Iovine, S. Peruccacci, O. Terranova, and F. Guzzetti In many areas, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides. Determining the rainfall conditions responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to saving lives and properties. In a long-term national project for the definition of rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy, we compiled a catalogue of 186 rainfall events that resulted in 251 shallow landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, from January 1996 to September 2011. Landslides were located geographically using Google Earth®, and were given a mapping and a temporal accuracy. We used the landslide information, and sub-hourly rainfall measurements obtained from two complementary networks of rain gauges, to determine cumulated event vs. rainfall duration ( ED ) thresholds for Calabria. For this purpose, we adopted an existing method used to prepare rainfall thresholds and to estimate their associated uncertainties in central Italy. The regional thresholds for Calabria were found to be nearly identical to previous ED thresholds for Calabria obtained using a reduced set of landslide information, and slightly higher than the ED thresholds obtained for central Italy. We segmented the regional catalogue of rainfall events with landslides in Calabria into lithology, soil regions, rainfall zones, and seasonal periods. The number of events in each subdivision was insufficient to determine reliable thresholds, but allowed for preliminary conclusions about the role of the environmental factors in the rainfall conditions responsible for shallow landslides in Calabria. We further segmented the regional catalogue based on administrative subdivisions used for hydro-meteorological monitoring and operational flood forecasting, and we determined separate ED thresholds for the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian coasts of Calabria. We expect the ED rainfall thresholds for Calabria to be used in regional and national landslide warning systems. The thresholds can also be used for landslide hazard and risk assessments, and for erosion and landscape evolution studies, in the study area and in similar physiographic regions in the Mediterranean area.

Description: GIS and remote sensing techniques for the assessment of land use change impact on flood hydrology: the case study of Yialias basin in Cyprus Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 413-426, 2014 Author(s): D. D. Alexakis, M. G. Grillakis, A. G. Koutroulis, A. Agapiou, K. Themistocleous, I. K. Tsanis, S. Michaelides, S. Pashiardis, C. Demetriou, K. Aristeidou, A. Retalis, F. Tymvios, and D. G. Hadjimitsis Floods are one of the most common natural disasters worldwide, leading to economic losses and loss of human lives. This paper highlights the hydrological effects of multi-temporal land use changes in flood hazard within the Yialias catchment area, located in central Cyprus. A calibrated hydrological model was firstly developed to describe the hydrological processes and internal basin dynamics of the three major subbasins, in order to study the diachronic effects of land use changes. For the implementation of the hydrological model, land use, soil and hydrometeorological data were incorporated. The climatic and stream flow data were derived from rain and flow gauge stations located in the wider area of the watershed basin. In addition, the land use and soil data were extracted after the application of object-oriented nearest neighbor algorithms of ASTER satellite images. Subsequently, the cellular automata (CA)–Markov chain analysis was implemented to predict the 2020 land use/land cover (LULC) map and incorporate it to the hydrological impact assessment. The results denoted the increase of runoff in the catchment area due to the recorded extensive urban sprawl phenomenon of the last decade.

Description: Preface: Understanding dynamics and current developments of climate extremes in the Mediterranean region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 309-316, 2014 Author(s): R. F. Garcia-Herrera, P. Lionello, and U. Ulbrich

Description: Development of an operational modeling system for urban heat islands: an application to Athens, Greece Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 347-358, 2014 Author(s): T. M. Giannaros, D. Melas, I. A. Daglis, and I. Keramitsoglou The urban heat island (UHI) effect is one prominent form of localized anthropogenic climate modification. It represents a significant urban climate problem since it occurs in the layer of the atmosphere where almost all daily human activities take place. This paper presents the development of a high-resolution modeling system that could be used for simulating the UHI effect in the context of operational weather forecasting activities. The modeling system is built around a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model, properly modified to allow for the better representation of the urban climate. The model performance in terms of simulating the near-surface air temperature and thermal comfort conditions over the complex urban area of Athens, Greece, is evaluated during a 1.5-month operational implementation in the summer of 2010. Results from this case study reveal an overall satisfactory performance of the modeling system. The discussion of the results highlights the important role that, given the necessary modifications, a meteorological model can play as a supporting tool for developing successful heat island mitigation strategies. This is further underlined through the operational character of the presented modeling system.

Description: A data-based comparison of flood frequency analysis methods used in France Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 295-308, 2014 Author(s): K. Kochanek, B. Renard, P. Arnaud, Y. Aubert, M. Lang, T. Cipriani, and E. Sauquet Flood frequency analysis (FFA) aims at estimating quantiles with large return periods for an extreme discharge variable. Many FFA implementations are used in operational practice in France. These implementations range from the estimation of a pre-specified distribution to continuous simulation approaches using a rainfall simulator coupled with a rainfall–runoff model. This diversity of approaches raises questions regarding the limits of each implementation and calls for a nation-wide comparison of their predictive performances. This paper presents the results of a national comparison of the main FFA implementations used in France. More accurately, eight implementations are considered, corresponding to the local, regional and local-regional estimation of Gumbel and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions, as well as the local and regional versions of a continuous simulation approach. A data-based comparison framework is applied to these eight competitors to evaluate their predictive performances in terms of reliability and stability, using daily flow data from more than 1000 gauging stations in France. Results from this comparative exercise suggest that two implementations dominate their competitors in terms of predictive performances, namely the local version of the continuous simulation approach and the local-regional estimation of a GEV distribution. More specific conclusions include the following: (i) the Gumbel distribution is not suitable for Mediterranean catchments, since this distribution demonstrably leads to an underestimation of flood quantiles; (ii) the local estimation of a GEV distribution is not recommended, because the difficulty in estimating the shape parameter results in frequent predictive failures; (iii) all the purely regional implementations evaluated in this study displayed a quite poor reliability, suggesting that prediction in completely ungauged catchments remains a challenge.

Description: Which data for quantitative landslide susceptibility mapping at operational scale? Case study of the Pays d'Auge plateau hillslopes (Normandy, France) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 569-588, 2014 Author(s): M. Fressard, Y. Thiery, and O. Maquaire This paper aims at assessing the impact of the data set quality for landslide susceptibility mapping using multivariate statistical modelling methods at detailed scale. This research is conducted on the Pays d'Auge plateau (Normandy, France) with a scale objective of 1 / 10 000, in order to fit the French guidelines on risk assessment. Five sets of data of increasing quality (considering accuracy, scale fitting, and geomorphological significance) and cost of acquisition are used to map the landslide susceptibility using logistic regression. The best maps obtained with each set of data are compared on the basis of different statistical accuracy indicators (ROC curves and relative error calculation), linear cross correlation and expert opinion. The results highlight that only high-quality sets of data supplied with detailed geomorphological variables (i.e. field inventory and surficial formation maps) can predict a satisfying proportion of landslides in the study area.

Description: Simulation of wind-induced snow transport and sublimation in alpine terrain using a fully coupled snowpack/atmosphere model The Cryosphere, 8, 395-415, 2014 Author(s): V. Vionnet, E. Martin, V. Masson, G. Guyomarc'h, F. Naaim-Bouvet, A. Prokop, Y. Durand, and C. Lac In alpine regions, wind-induced snow transport strongly influences the spatio-temporal evolution of the snow cover throughout the winter season. To gain understanding on the complex processes that drive the redistribution of snow, a new numerical model is developed. It directly couples the detailed snowpack model Crocus with the atmospheric model Meso-NH. Meso-NH/Crocus simulates snow transport in saltation and in turbulent suspension and includes the sublimation of suspended snow particles. The coupled model is evaluated against data collected around the experimental site of Col du Lac Blanc (2720 m a.s.l., French Alps). First, 1-D simulations show that a detailed representation of the first metres of the atmosphere is required to reproduce strong gradients of blowing snow concentration and compute mass exchange between the snowpack and the atmosphere. Secondly, 3-D simulations of a blowing snow event without concurrent snowfall have been carried out. Results show that the model captures the main structures of atmospheric flow in alpine terrain. However, at 50 m grid spacing, the model reproduces only the patterns of snow erosion and deposition at the ridge scale and misses smaller scale patterns observed by terrestrial laser scanning. When activated, the sublimation of suspended snow particles causes a reduction of deposited snow mass of 5.3% over the calculation domain. Total sublimation (surface + blowing snow) is three times higher than surface sublimation in a simulation neglecting blowing snow sublimation.

Description: Coseismic slip inversion based on InSAR arc measurements Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 649-656, 2014 Author(s): C. Wang, X. Ding, and Q. Li We present a new method for inverting coseismic slip distribution based on arc measurements of InSAR interferograms. The method only solves the integer ambiguities on the selected arcs so that the challenging task from global unwrapping of low coherence interferograms can be avoided. The simulated experiment results show that the new method recovered the given slip distribution well at different coherence quality levels. However, the conventional method with global interferogram unwrapping fails when the interferogram has some isolated areas. In addition, the new method is capable of using surface rupture offset data gathered in the field. We apply the proposed method to study the 2010 Yushu, China Ms 7.1 earthquake. Inclusion of field data can help to enhance the results of fault slip inversion. It derives a maximum slip of ∼3 m, larger than the published coseismic slip results on this event, but agreeing with the largest offset of 3.2 m from field investigation.

Description: A new approach to flood vulnerability assessment for historic buildings in England Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 1035-1048, 2014 Author(s): V. Stephenson and D. D'Ayala The recent increase in frequency and severity of flooding in the UK has led to a shift in the perception of risk associated with flood hazards. This has extended to the conservation community, and the risks posed to historic structures that suffer from flooding are particularly concerning for those charged with preserving and maintaining such buildings. In order to fully appraise the risks in a manner appropriate to the complex issue of preservation, a new methodology is presented here that studies the nature of the vulnerability of such structures, and places it in the context of risk assessment, accounting for the vulnerable object and the subsequent exposure of that object to flood hazards. The testing of the methodology is carried out using three urban case studies and the results of the survey analysis provide guidance on the development of fragility curves for historic structures exposed to flooding. This occurs through appraisal of vulnerability indicators related to building form, structural and fabric integrity, and preservation of architectural and archaeological values. Key findings of the work include determining the applicability of these indicators to fragility analysis, and the determination of the relative vulnerability of the three case study sites.

Description: Seasonal thaw settlement at drained thermokarst lake basins, Arctic Alaska The Cryosphere, 8, 815-826, 2014 Author(s): L. Liu, K. Schaefer, A. Gusmeroli, G. Grosse, B. M. Jones, T. Zhang, A. D. Parsekian, and H. A. Zebker Drained thermokarst lake basins (DTLBs) are ubiquitous landforms on Arctic tundra lowland. Their dynamic states are seldom investigated, despite their importance for landscape stability, hydrology, nutrient fluxes, and carbon cycling. Here we report results based on high-resolution Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements using space-borne data for a study area located on the North Slope of Alaska near Prudhoe Bay, where we focus on the seasonal thaw settlement within DTLBs, averaged between 2006 and 2010. The majority (14) of the 18 DTLBs in the study area exhibited seasonal thaw settlement of 3–4 cm. However, four of the DTLBs examined exceeded 4 cm of thaw settlement, with one basin experiencing up to 12 cm. Combining the InSAR observations with the in situ active layer thickness measured using ground penetrating radar and mechanical probing, we calculated thaw strain, an index of thaw settlement strength along a transect across the basin that underwent large thaw settlement. We found thaw strains of 10–35% at the basin center, suggesting the seasonal melting of ground ice as a possible mechanism for the large settlement. These findings emphasize the dynamic nature of permafrost landforms, demonstrate the capability of the InSAR technique to remotely monitor surface deformation of individual DTLBs, and illustrate the combination of ground-based and remote sensing observations to estimate thaw strain. Our study highlights the need for better description of the spatial heterogeneity of landscape-scale processes for regional assessment of surface dynamics on Arctic coastal lowlands.

Description: Empirical estimation of present-day Antarctic glacial isostatic adjustment and ice mass change The Cryosphere, 8, 743-760, 2014 Author(s): B. C. Gunter, O. Didova, R. E. M. Riva, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. A. King, M. R. van den Broeke, and T. Urban This study explores an approach that simultaneously estimates Antarctic mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) through the combination of satellite gravity and altimetry data sets. The results improve upon previous efforts by incorporating a firn densification model to account for firn compaction and surface processes as well as reprocessed data sets over a slightly longer period of time. A range of different Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity models were evaluated and a new Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) surface height trend map computed using an overlapping footprint approach. When the GIA models created from the combination approach were compared to in situ GPS ground station displacements, the vertical rates estimated showed consistently better agreement than recent conventional GIA models. The new empirically derived GIA rates suggest the presence of strong uplift in the Amundsen Sea sector in West Antarctica (WA) and the Philippi/Denman sectors, as well as subsidence in large parts of East Antarctica (EA). The total GIA-related mass change estimates for the entire Antarctic ice sheet ranged from 53 to 103 Gt yr −1 , depending on the GRACE solution used, with an estimated uncertainty of ±40 Gt yr −1 . Over the time frame February 2003–October 2009, the corresponding ice mass change showed an average value of −100 ± 44 Gt yr −1 (EA: 5 ± 38, WA: −105 ± 22), consistent with other recent estimates in the literature, with regional mass loss mostly concentrated in WA. The refined approach presented in this study shows the contribution that such data combinations can make towards improving estimates of present-day GIA and ice mass change, particularly with respect to determining more reliable uncertainties.

Description: Sea ice and the ocean mixed layer over the Antarctic shelf seas The Cryosphere, 8, 761-783, 2014 Author(s): A. A. Petty, P. R. Holland, and D. L. Feltham An ocean mixed-layer model has been incorporated into the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE to investigate regional variations in the surface-driven formation of Antarctic shelf waters. This model captures well the expected sea ice thickness distribution, and produces deep (〉 500 m) mixed layers in the Weddell and Ross shelf seas each winter. This results in the complete destratification of the water column in deep southern coastal regions leading to high-salinity shelf water (HSSW) formation, and also in some shallower regions (no HSSW formation) of these seas. Shallower mixed layers are produced in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas. By deconstructing the surface processes driving the mixed-layer depth evolution, we show that the net salt flux from sea ice growth/melt dominates the evolution of the mixed layer in all regions, with a smaller contribution from the surface heat flux and a negligible input from wind stress. The Weddell and Ross shelf seas receive an annual surplus of mixing energy at the surface; the Amundsen shelf sea energy input in autumn/winter is balanced by energy extraction in spring/summer; and the Bellingshausen shelf sea experiences an annual surface energy deficit, through both a low energy input in autumn/winter and the highest energy loss in spring/summer. An analysis of the sea ice mass balance demonstrates the contrasting mean ice growth, melt and export in each region. The Weddell and Ross shelf seas have the highest annual ice growth, with a large fraction exported northwards each year, whereas the Bellingshausen shelf sea experiences the highest annual ice melt, driven by the advection of ice from the northeast. A linear regression analysis is performed to determine the link between the autumn/winter mixed-layer deepening and several atmospheric variables. The Weddell and Ross shelf seas show stronger spatial correlations (temporal mean – intra-regional variability) between the autumn/winter mixed-layer deepening and several atmospheric variables compared to the Amundsen and Bellingshausen. In contrast, the Amundsen and Bellingshausen shelf seas show stronger temporal correlations (shelf sea mean – interannual variability) between the autumn/winter mixed-layer deepening and several atmospheric variables.

Description: Daytime identification of summer hailstorm cells from MSG data Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 1017-1033, 2014 Author(s): A. Merino, L. López, J. L. Sánchez, E. García-Ortega, E. Cattani, and V. Levizzani Identifying deep convection is of paramount importance, as it may be associated with extreme weather phenomena that have significant impact on the environment, property and populations. A new method, the hail detection tool (HDT), is described for identifying hail-bearing storms using multispectral Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) data. HDT was conceived as a two-phase method, in which the first step is the convective mask (CM) algorithm devised for detection of deep convection, and the second a hail mask algorithm (HM) for the identification of hail-bearing clouds among cumulonimbus systems detected by CM. Both CM and HM are based on logistic regression models trained with multispectral MSG data sets comprised of summer convective events in the middle Ebro Valley (Spain) between 2006 and 2010, and detected by the RGB (red-green-blue) visualization technique (CM) or C-band weather radar system of the University of León. By means of the logistic regression approach, the probability of identifying a cumulonimbus event with CM or a hail event with HM are computed by exploiting a proper selection of MSG wavelengths or their combination. A number of cloud physical properties (liquid water path, optical thickness and effective cloud drop radius) were used to physically interpret results of statistical models from a meteorological perspective, using a method based on these "ingredients". Finally, the HDT was applied to a new validation sample consisting of events during summer 2011. The overall probability of detection was 76.9 % and the false alarm ratio 16.7 %.

Description: Homogenisation of a gridded snow water equivalent climatology for Alpine terrain: methodology and applications The Cryosphere, 8, 471-485, 2014 Author(s): S. Jörg-Hess, F. Fundel, T. Jonas, and M. Zappa Gridded snow water equivalent (SWE) data sets are valuable for estimating the snow water resources and verify different model systems, e.g. hydrological, land surface or atmospheric models. However, changing data availability represents a considerable challenge when trying to derive consistent time series for SWE products. In an attempt to improve the product consistency, we first evaluated the differences between two climatologies of SWE grids that were calculated on the basis of data from 110 and 203 stations, respectively. The "shorter" climatology (2001–2009) was produced using 203 stations (map203) and the "longer" one (1971–2009) 110 stations (map110). Relative to map203, map110 underestimated SWE, especially at higher elevations and at the end of the winter season. We tested the potential of quantile mapping to compensate for mapping errors in map110 relative to map203. During a 9 yr calibration period from 2001 to 2009, for which both map203 and map110 were available, the method could successfully refine the spatial and temporal SWE representation in map110 by making seasonal, regional and altitude-related distinctions. Expanding the calibration to the full 39 yr showed that the general underestimation of map110 with respect to map203 could be removed for the whole winter. The calibrated SWE maps fitted the reference (map203) well when averaged over regions and time periods, where the mean error is approximately zero. However, deviations between the calibrated maps and map203 were observed at single grid cells and years. When we looked at three different regions in more detail, we found that the calibration had the largest effect in the region with the highest proportion of catchment areas above 2000 m a.s.l. and that the general underestimation of map110 compared to map203 could be removed for the entire snow season. The added value of the calibrated SWE climatology is illustrated with practical examples: the verification of a hydrological model, the estimation of snow resource anomalies and the predictability of runoff through SWE.

Description: Three variables are better than one: detection of european winter windstorms causing important damages Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 981-993, 2014 Author(s): M.-S. Deroche, M. Choux, F. Codron, and P. Yiou In this paper, we present a new approach for detecting potentially damaging European winter windstorms from a multi-variable perspective. European winter windstorms being usually associated with extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs), there is a coupling between the intensity of the surface wind speeds and other meso-scale and large-scale features characteristic of ETCs. Here we focus on the relative vorticity at 850 hPa and the sea level pressure anomaly, which are also used in ETC detection studies, along with the ratio of the 10 m wind speed to its 98th percentile. When analysing 10 events known by the insurance industry to have caused extreme damages, we find that they share an intense signature in each of the 3 fields. This shows that the relative vorticity and the mean sea level pressure have a predictive value of the intensity of the generated windstorms. The 10 major events are not the most intense in any of the 3 variables considered separately, but we show that the combination of the 3 variables is an efficient way of extracting these events from a reanalysis data set.

Description: Modeling extreme wave heights from laboratory experiments with the nonlinear Schrödinger equation Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 959-968, 2014 Author(s): H. D. Zhang, C. Guedes Soares, Z. Cherneva, and M. Onorato Spatial variation of nonlinear wave groups with different initial envelope shapes is theoretically studied first, confirming that the simplest nonlinear theoretical model is capable of describing the evolution of propagating wave packets in deep water. Moreover, three groups of laboratory experiments run in the wave basin of CEHIPAR (Canal de Experiencias Hidrodinámicas de El Pardo, known also as El Pardo Model Basin) was founded in 1928 by the Spanish Navy. are systematically compared with the numerical simulations of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation. Although a little overestimation is detected, especially in the set of experiments characterized by higher initial wave steepness, the numerical simulation still displays a high degree of agreement with the laboratory experiments. Therefore, the nonlinear Schrödinger equation catches the essential characteristics of the extreme waves and provides an important physical insight into their generation. The modulation instability, resulting from the quasi-resonant four-wave interaction in a unidirectional sea state, can be indicated by the coefficient of kurtosis, which shows an appreciable correlation with the extreme wave height and hence is used in the modified Edgeworth–Rayleigh distribution. Finally, some statistical properties on the maximum wave heights in different sea states have been related with the initial Benjamin–Feir index.

Description: Seismic vulnerability assessment of school buildings in Tehran city based on AHP and GIS Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 969-979, 2014 Author(s): M. Panahi, F. Rezaie, and S. A. Meshkani The objective of the current study is to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of school buildings in Tehran city based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). To this end, the peak ground acceleration, slope, and soil liquefaction layers were utilized for developing a geotechnical map. Also, the construction materials of structures, age of construction, the quality, and the seismic resonance coefficient layers were defined as major factors affecting the structural vulnerability of school buildings. Then, the AHP method was applied to assess the priority rank and weight of criteria (layers) and alternatives (classes) of each criterion via pairwise comparison in all levels. Finally, the geotechnical and structural spatial layers were overlaid to develop the seismic vulnerability map of school buildings in Tehran. The results indicated that only in 72 (about 3%) out of 2125 school buildings of the study area will the destruction rate be very high and therefore their reconstruction should seriously be considered.

Description: Adjoint accuracy for the full Stokes ice flow model: limits to the transmission of basal friction variability to the surface The Cryosphere, 8, 721-741, 2014 Author(s): N. Martin and J. Monnier This work focuses on the numerical assessment of the accuracy of an adjoint-based gradient in the perspective of variational data assimilation and parameter identification in glaciology. Using noisy synthetic data, we quantify the ability to identify the friction coefficient for such methods with a non-linear friction law. The exact adjoint problem is solved, based on second-order numerical schemes, and a comparison with the so-called "self-adjoint" approximation, neglecting the viscosity dependence on the velocity (leading to an incorrect gradient), common in glaciology, is carried out. For data with a noise of 1%, a lower bound of identifiable wavelengths of 10 ice thicknesses in the friction coefficient is established, when using the exact adjoint method, while the "self-adjoint" method is limited, even for lower noise, to a minimum of 20 ice thickness wavelengths. The second-order exact gradient method therefore provides robustness and reliability for the parameter identification process. In another respect, the derivation of the adjoint model using algorithmic differentiation leads to the formulation of a generalization of the "self-adjoint" approximation towards an incomplete adjoint method , adjustable in precision and computational burden.

Description: Facing and managing natural disasters in the Sporades islands, Greece Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 995-1005, 2014 Author(s): P. Karanikola, T. Panagopoulos, S. Tampakis, M. I. Karantoni, and G. Tsantopoulos The region of the Sporades islands located in central Greece is at the mercy of many natural phenomena, such as earthquakes due to the marine volcano Psathoura and the rift of Anatolia, forest fires, floods, landslides, storms, hail, snowfall and frost. The present work aims at studying the perceptions and attitudes of the residents regarding how they face and manage natural disasters. A positive public response during a hazard crisis depends not only upon the availability and good management of a civil defense plan but also on the knowledge and perception of the possible hazards by the local population. It is important for the stakeholders to know what the citizens expect so that the necessary structures can be developed in the phase of preparation and organization. The residents were asked their opinion about what they think should be done by the stakeholders after a catastrophic natural disaster, particularly about the immediate response of stakeholders and their involvement and responsibilities at different, subsequent intervals of time following the disaster. The residents were also asked about the most common disasters that happen in their region and about the preparation activities of the stakeholders.

Description: A double continuum hydrological model for glacier applications The Cryosphere, 8, 137-153, 2014 Author(s): B. de Fleurian, O. Gagliardini, T. Zwinger, G. Durand, E. Le Meur, D. Mair, and P. Råback The flow of glaciers and ice streams is strongly influenced by the presence of water at the interface between ice and bed. In this paper, a hydrological model evaluating the subglacial water pressure is developed with the final aim of estimating the sliding velocities of glaciers. The global model fully couples the subglacial hydrology and the ice dynamics through a water-dependent friction law. The hydrological part of the model follows a double continuum approach which relies on the use of porous layers to compute water heads in inefficient and efficient drainage systems. This method has the advantage of a relatively low computational cost that would allow its application to large ice bodies such as Greenland or Antarctica ice streams. The hydrological model has been implemented in the finite element code Elmer/Ice, which simultaneously computes the ice flow. Herein, we present an application to the Haut Glacier d'Arolla for which we have a large number of observations, making it well suited to the purpose of validating both the hydrology and ice flow model components. The selection of hydrological, under-determined parameters from a wide range of values is guided by comparison of the model results with available glacier observations. Once this selection has been performed, the coupling between subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics is undertaken throughout a melt season. Results indicate that this new modelling approach for subglacial hydrology is able to reproduce the broad temporal and spatial patterns of the observed subglacial hydrological system. Furthermore, the coupling with the ice dynamics shows good agreement with the observed spring speed-up.

Description: Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet The Cryosphere, 8, 195-208, 2014 Author(s): T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB–elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9%) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0%) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the "no feedback" case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

Description: Response of ice cover on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska to contemporary climate conditions (1950–2011): radar remote-sensing and numerical modeling data analysis The Cryosphere, 8, 167-180, 2014 Author(s): C. M. Surdu, C. R. Duguay, L. C. Brown, and D. Fernández Prieto Air temperature and winter precipitation changes over the last five decades have impacted the timing, duration, and thickness of the ice cover on Arctic lakes as shown by recent studies. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3 m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in thinner ice covers and consequently, in a smaller fraction of lakes freezing to their bed in winter. However, these changes have not yet been comprehensively documented. The analysis of a 20 yr time series of European remote sensing satellite ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and a numerical lake ice model were employed to determine the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to the bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) to climate conditions over the last six decades. Given the large area covered by these lakes, changes in the regional climate and weather are related to regime shifts in the ice cover of the lakes. Analysis of available SAR data from 1991 to 2011, from a sub-region of the NSA near Barrow, shows a reduction in the fraction of lakes that freeze to the bed in late winter. This finding is in good agreement with the decrease in ice thickness simulated with the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo), a lower fraction of lakes frozen to the bed corresponding to a thinner ice cover. Observed changes of the ice cover show a trend toward increasing floating ice fractions from 1991 to 2011, with the greatest change occurring in April, when the grounded ice fraction declined by 22% (α = 0.01). Model results indicate a trend toward thinner ice covers by 18–22 cm (no-snow and 53% snow depth scenarios, α = 0.01) during the 1991–2011 period and by 21–38 cm (α = 0.001) from 1950 to 2011. The longer trend analysis (1950–2011) also shows a decrease in the ice cover duration by ~24 days consequent to later freeze-up dates by 5.9 days (α = 0.1) and earlier break-up dates by 17.7–18.6 days (α = 0.001).

Description: Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet The Cryosphere, 8, 181-194, 2014 Author(s): T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB–elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling ice sheet and climate models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77° N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four "SMB lapse rates", gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CI) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.56 (95% CI: −0.22 to 1.33) kg m −3 a −1 for the north, and 1.91 (1.03 to 2.61) kg m −3 a −1 for the south. Above the ELA, the gradients are much smaller in magnitude: 0.09 (−0.03 to 0.23) kg m −3 a −1 in the north, and 0.07 (−0.07 to 0.59) kg m −3 a −1 in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. Our statistically founded approach allows us to make probabilistic assessments for the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on sea level projections (Edwards et al., 2014).

Description: A quality assessment framework for natural hazard event documentation: application to trans-basin flood reports in Germany Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 189-208, 2014 Author(s): S. Uhlemann, A. H. Thieken, and B. Merz Written sources that aim at documenting and analysing a particular natural hazard event in the recent past are published at vast majority as grey literature (e.g. as technical reports) and therefore outside of the scholarly publication routes. In consequence, the application of event-specific documentation in natural hazard research has been constrained by barriers in accessibility, concerns of credibility towards these sources and by limited awareness of their content and its usefulness for research questions. In this study we address the concerns of credibility for the first time and present a quality assessment framework for written sources from a user's perspective, i.e. we assess the documents' fitness for use to enhance the understanding of trans-basin floods in Germany in the period 1952–2002. The framework is designed to be generally applicable for any natural hazard event documentation and assesses the quality of a document, addressing accessibility as well as representational, contextual, and intrinsic dimensions of quality. We introduce an ordinal scaling scheme to grade the quality in the individual quality dimensions and the Pedigree score which serves as a measure for the overall document quality. We present results of an application of the framework to a set of 133 cases of event-specific documentation relevant for understanding trans-basin floods in Germany. Our results show that the majority of flood event-specific reports are of good quality, i.e. they are well enough drafted, largely accurate and objective, and contain a substantial amount of information on the sources, pathways and receptors/consequences of the floods. The validation of our results against assessments of two independent peers confirms the objectivity and transparency of the quality assessment framework. Using an example flood event that occurred in October/November 1998 we demonstrate how the information from multiple reports can be synthesised.

Description: Cyclone impact on sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean: a statistical study The Cryosphere, 8, 303-317, 2014 Author(s): A. Kriegsmann and B. Brümmer This study investigates the impact of cyclones on the Arctic Ocean sea ice for the first time in a statistical manner. We apply the coupled ice–ocean model NAOSIM which is forced by the ECMWF analyses for the period 2006–2008. Cyclone position and radius detected in the ECMWF data are used to extract fields of wind, ice drift, and concentration from the ice–ocean model. Composite fields around the cyclone centre are calculated for different cyclone intensities, the four seasons, and different sub-regions of the Arctic Ocean. In total about 3500 cyclone events are analyzed. In general, cyclones reduce the ice concentration in the order of a few percent increasing towards the cyclone centre. This is confirmed by independent AMSR-E satellite data. The reduction increases with cyclone intensity and is most pronounced in summer and on the Siberian side of the Arctic Ocean. For the Arctic ice cover the cumulative impact of cyclones has climatologic consequences. In winter, the cyclone-induced openings refreeze so that the ice mass is increased. In summer, the openings remain open and the ice melt is accelerated via the positive albedo feedback. Strong summer storms on the Siberian side of the Arctic Ocean may have been important contributions to the recent ice extent minima in 2007 and 2012.

Description: Atmosphere–ice forcing in the transpolar drift stream: results from the DAMOCLES ice-buoy campaigns 2007–2009 The Cryosphere, 8, 275-288, 2014 Author(s): M. Haller, B. Brümmer, and G. Müller During the EU research project Developing Arctic Modelling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies (DAMOCLES), 18 ice buoys were deployed in the region of the Arctic transpolar drift (TPD). Sixteen of them formed a quadratic grid with 400 km side length. The measurements lasted from 2007 to 2009. The properties of the TPD and the impact of synoptic weather systems on the ice drift are analysed. Within the TPD, the speed increases by a factor of almost three from the North Pole to the Fram Strait region. The hourly buoy position fixes would show that the speed is underestimated by 10–20% if positions were taken at only 1–3 day intervals as it is usually done for satellite drift estimates. The geostrophic wind factor U i / U g (i.e. the ratio of ice speed U i and geostrophic wind speed U g ), in the TPD amounts to 0.012 on average, but with regional and seasonal differences. The constant U i / U g relation breaks down for U g 〈 5 m s −1 . The impact of synoptic weather systems is studied applying a composite method. Cyclones (anticyclones) cause cyclonic (anticyclonic) vorticity and divergence (convergence) of the ice drift. The amplitudes are twice as large for cyclones as for anticyclones. The divergence caused by cyclones corresponds to a 0.1–0.5% per 6 h open water area increase based on the composite averages, but reached almost 4% within one day during a strong August 2007 storm. This storm also caused a long-lasting (over several weeks) rise of U i and U i / U g and changed the ice conditions in a way which allowed large amplitudes of inertial ice motion. The consequences of an increasing Arctic storm activity for the ice cover are discussed.

Description: Solving Richards Equation for snow improves snowpack meltwater runoff estimations in detailed multi-layer snowpack model The Cryosphere, 8, 257-274, 2014 Author(s): N. Wever, C. Fierz, C. Mitterer, H. Hirashima, and M. Lehning The runoff from a snow cover during spring snowmelt or rain-on-snow events is an important factor in the hydrological cycle. In this study, three water balance schemes for the 1 dimensional physically-based snowpack model SNOWPACK are compared to lysimeter measurements at two alpine sites with a seasonal snow cover, but with different climatological conditions: Weissfluhjoch (WFJ) and Col de Porte (CDP). The studied period consists of 14 and 17 yr, respectively. The schemes include a simple bucket-type approach, an approximation of Richards Equation (RE), and the full RE. The results show that daily sums of snowpack runoff are strongly related to a positive energy balance of the snow cover and therefore, all water balance schemes show very similar performance in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficients (around 0.63 and 0.72 for WFJ and CDP, respectively) and r 2 values (around 0.83 and 0.72 for WFJ and CDP, respectively). An analysis of the runoff dynamics over the season showed that the bucket-type and approximated RE scheme release meltwater slower than in the measurements, whereas RE provides a better agreement. Overall, solving RE for the snow cover yields the best agreement between modelled and measured snowpack runoff, but differences between the schemes are small. On sub-daily time scales, the water balance schemes behave very differently. In that case, solving RE provides the highest agreement between modelled and measured snowpack runoff in terms of NSE coefficient (around 0.48 at both sites). At WFJ, the other water balance schemes loose most predictive power, whereas at CDP, the bucket-type scheme has an NSE coefficient of 0.39. The shallower and less stratified snowpack at CDP likely reduces the differences between the water balance schemes. Accordingly, it can be concluded that solving RE for the snow cover improves several aspects of modelling snow cover runoff, especially for deep, sub-freezing snow covers and in particular on the sub-daily time scales. The additional computational cost was found to be in the order of a factor of 1.5–2.

Description: Influence of regional precipitation patterns on stable isotopes in ice cores from the central Himalayas The Cryosphere, 8, 289-301, 2014 Author(s): H. Pang, S. Hou, S. Kaspari, and P. A. Mayewski Several ice cores have been recovered from the Dasuopu (DSP) Glacier and the East Rongbuk (ER) Glacier in the central Himalayas since the 1990s. Although the distance between the DSP and the ER ice core drilling sites is only ~ 125 km, the stable isotopic record (δ 18 O or δD) of the DSP core is interpreted in previous studies as a temperature proxy, while the ER core is interpreted as a precipitation proxy. Thus, the climatological significance of the stable isotopic records of these Himalayan ice cores remains a subject of debate. Based on analysis of regional precipitation patterns over the region, we find that remarkable discrepancy in precipitation seasonality between the two sites may account for their disparate isotopic interpretations. At the ER core site, the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation is dominating due to topographic blocking of the moisture from westerlies by the high ridges of Mt. Qomolangma (Everest), which results in a negative correlation between the ER Δ 18 O or δD record and precipitation amount along the southern slope of the central Himalayas in response to the "amount effect". At the DSP core site, in comparison with the ISM precipitation, the wintertime precipitation associated with the westerlies is likely more important owing to its local favorable topographic conditions for interacting with the western disturbances. Therefore, the DSP stable isotopic record may be primarily controlled by the westerlies. Our results have important implications for interpreting the stable isotopic ice core records recovered from different climatological regimes of the Himalayas.

Description: A two-step framework for over-threshold modelling of environmental extremes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 635-647, 2014 Author(s): P. Bernardara, F. Mazas, X. Kergadallan, and L. Hamm The evaluation of the probability of occurrence of extreme natural events is important for the protection of urban areas, industrial facilities and others. Traditionally, the extreme value theory (EVT) offers a valid theoretical framework on this topic. In an over-threshold modelling (OTM) approach, Pickands' theorem, (Pickands, 1975) states that, for a sample composed by independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) values, the distribution of the data exceeding a given threshold converges through a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Following this theoretical result, the analysis of realizations of environmental variables exceeding a threshold spread widely in the literature. However, applying this theorem to an auto-correlated time series logically involves two successive and complementary steps: the first one is required to build a sample of i.i.d. values from the available information, as required by the EVT; the second to set the threshold for the optimal convergence toward the GPD. In the past, the same threshold was often employed both for sampling observations and for meeting the hypothesis of extreme value convergence. This confusion can lead to an erroneous understanding of methodologies and tools available in the literature. This paper aims at clarifying the conceptual framework involved in threshold selection, reviewing the available methods for the application of both steps and illustrating it with a double threshold approach.

Description: Landslide observation and volume estimation in central Georgia based on L-band InSAR Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 675-688, 2014 Author(s): E. Nikolaeva, T.R. Walter, M. Shirzaei, and J. Zschau The republic of Georgia is a mountainous and tectonically active area that is vulnerable to landslides. Because landslides are one of the most devastating natural hazards, their detection and monitoring is of great importance. In this study we report on a previously unknown landslide in central Georgia near the town of Sachkhere. We used a set of Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data to generate displacement maps using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). We detected a sliding zone of dimensions 2 km north–south by 0.6 km east–west that threatens four villages. We estimated surface displacement of up to ∼30 cm/yr over the sliding body in the satellite line-of-sight (LOS) direction, with the largest displacement occurring after a local tectonic earthquake. We mapped the morphology of the landslide mass by aerial photography and field surveying. We found a complex set of interacting processes, including surface fracturing, shear and normal faults at both the headwall and the sides of the landslide, local landslide velocity changes, earthquake-induced velocity peaks, and loss in toe support due to mining activity. Important implications that are applicable elsewhere can be drawn from this study of coupled processes. We used inverse dislocation modelling to find a possible dislocation plane resembling the landslide basal décollement, and we used that plane to calculate the volume of the landslide. The results suggest a décollement at ∼120 m depth, dipping at ∼10° sub-parallel to the surface, which is indicative of a translational-type landslide.

Description: Recent land subsidence caused by the rapid urban development in the Hanoi region (Vietnam) using ALOS InSAR data Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 657-674, 2014 Author(s): V. K. Dang, C. Doubre, C. Weber, N. Gourmelen, and F. Masson Since the 1990s the land subsidence due to the rapid urbanization has been considered a severely destructive hazard in the center of Hanoi City. Although previous studies and measurements have quantified the subsiding deformation in Hanoi center, no data exist for the newly established districts in the south and the west, where construction development has been most significant and where groundwater pumping has been very intensive over the last decade. With a multi-temporal InSAR approach, we quantify the spatial distribution of the land subsidence in the entire Hanoi urban region using ALOS images over the 2007–2011 period. The map of the mean subsidence velocity reveals that the northern bank of the Red River appears stable, whereas some areas in southern bank are subsiding with a mean vertical rate up to 68.0 mm yr −1 , especially within the three new urban districts of Hoang Mai, Ha Dong – Thanh Xuan and Hoai Duc – Tu Liem. We interpret the spatial distribution of the surface deformation as the combination of the nature of the unsaturated layer, the lowering of groundwater in the aquifers due to pumping withdrawal capacity, the increase of built-up surfaces and the type of building foundation. The piezometric level in Q p aquifer lowers particularly after 2008, whereas the groundwater level in Q h aquifer remains steady, even if it loses its seasonal fluctuation in urban areas and drawdowns in neighboring water production plants. The time evolution deduced from the InSAR time series is consistent with previous leveling data and shows that the lowering rate of the surface slightly decreases till 2008. The analysis of groundwater levels in instrumented wells shows a correlation between the behavior of groundwater with the urban development and the acceleration of groundwater withdrawal. Also, the time variations suggest that the deformation became non-stationary, with upward and downward transient displacements related to the charge and discharge of the aquifers.

Description: A new method for deriving glacier centerlines applied to glaciers in Alaska and northwest Canada The Cryosphere, 8, 503-519, 2014 Author(s): C. Kienholz, J. L. Rich, A. A. Arendt, and R. Hock This study presents a new method to derive centerlines for the main branches and major tributaries of a set of glaciers, requiring glacier outlines and a digital elevation model (DEM) as input. The method relies on a "cost grid–least-cost route approach" that comprises three main steps. First, termini and heads are identified for every glacier. Second, centerlines are derived by calculating the least-cost route on a previously established cost grid. Third, the centerlines are split into branches and a branch order is allocated. Application to 21 720 glaciers in Alaska and northwest Canada (Yukon, British Columbia) yields 41 860 centerlines. The algorithm performs robustly, requiring no manual adjustments for 87.8% of the glaciers. Manual adjustments are required primarily to correct the locations of glacier heads (7.0% corrected) and termini (3.5% corrected). With corrected heads and termini, only 1.4% of the derived centerlines need edits. A comparison of the lengths from a hydrological approach to the lengths from our longest centerlines reveals considerable variation. Although the average length ratio is close to unity, only ~ 50% of the 21 720 glaciers have the two lengths within 10% of each other. A second comparison shows that our centerline lengths between lowest and highest glacier elevations compare well to our longest centerline lengths. For 〉 70% of the 4350 glaciers with two or more branches, the two lengths are within 5% of each other. Our final product can be used for calculating glacier length, conducting length change analyses, topological analyses, or flowline modeling.

Description: A reliability assessment of physical vulnerability of reinforced concrete walls loaded by snow avalanches Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 689-704, 2014 Author(s): P. Favier, D. Bertrand, N. Eckert, and M. Naaim Snow avalanches are a threat to many kinds of elements (human beings, communication axes, structures, etc.) in mountain regions. For risk evaluation, the vulnerability assessment of civil engineering structures such as buildings and dwellings exposed to avalanches still needs to be improved. This paper presents an approach to determine the fragility curves associated with reinforced concrete (RC) structures loaded by typical avalanche pressures and provides quantitative results for different geometrical configurations. First, several mechanical limit states of the RC wall are defined using classical engineering approaches (Eurocode 2), and the pressure of structure collapse is calculated from the usual yield line theory. Next, the fragility curve is evaluated as a function of avalanche loading using a Monte Carlo approach, and sensitivity studies (Sobol indices) are conducted to estimate the respective weight of the RC wall model inputs. Finally, fragility curves and relevant indicators such a their mean and fragility range are proposed for the different structure boundary conditions analyzed. The influence of the input distributions on the fragility curves is investigated. This shows the wider fragility range and/or the slight shift in the median that has to be considered when a possible slight change in mean/standard deviation/inter-variable correlation and/or the non-Gaussian nature of the input distributions is accounted for.

Description: Modulational instability and wave amplification in finite water depth Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 705-711, 2014 Author(s): L. Fernandez, M. Onorato, J. Monbaliu, and A. Toffoli The modulational instability of a uniform wave train to side band perturbations is one of the most plausible mechanisms for the generation of rogue waves in deep water. In a condition of finite water depth, however, the interaction with the sea floor generates a wave-induced current that subtracts energy from the wave field and consequently attenuates the instability mechanism. As a result, a plane wave remains stable under the influence of collinear side bands for relative depths kh ≤ 1.36 (where k is the wavenumber of the plane wave and h is the water depth), but it can still destabilise due to oblique perturbations. Using direct numerical simulations of the Euler equations, it is here demonstrated that oblique side bands are capable of triggering modulational instability and eventually leading to the formation of rogue waves also for kh ≤ 1.36. Results, nonetheless, indicate that modulational instability cannot sustain a substantial wave growth for kh 〈 0.8.

Description: Near-surface permeability in a supraglacial drainage basin on the Llewellyn Glacier, Juneau Icefield, British Columbia The Cryosphere, 8, 537-546, 2014 Author(s): L. Karlstrom, A. Zok, and M. Manga Supraglacial channel networks link time varying melt production and meltwater routing on temperate glaciers. Such channel networks often include components of both surface transport in streams and subsurface porous flow through near-surface ice, firn or snowpack. Although subsurface transport if present will likely control network transport efficacy, it is the most poorly characterized component of the system. We present measurements of supraglacial channel spacing and network properties on the Juneau Icefield, subsurface water table height, and time variation of hydraulic characteristics including diurnal variability in water temperature. We combine these data with modeling of porous flow in weathered ice to infer near-surface permeability. Estimates are based on an observed phase lag between diurnal water temperature variations and discharge, and independently on measurement of water table surface elevation away from a stream. Both methods predict ice permeability on a 1–10 m scale in the range of 10 −10 –10 −11 m 2 . These estimates are considerably smaller than common parameterizations of surface water flow on bare ice in the literature, as well as smaller than most estimates of snowpack permeability. For supraglacial environments in which porosity/permeability creation in the subsurface is balanced by porous flow of meltwater, our methods provide an estimate of microscale hydraulic properties from observations of supraglacial channel spacing.

Description: Modeling bulk density and snow water equivalent using daily snow depth observations The Cryosphere, 8, 521-536, 2014 Author(s): J. L. McCreight and E. E. Small Bulk density is a fundamental property of snow relating its depth and mass. Previously, two simple models of bulk density (depending on snow depth, date, and location) have been developed to convert snow depth observations to snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates. However, these models were not intended for application at the daily time step. We develop a new model of bulk density for the daily time step and demonstrate its improved skill over the existing models. Snow depth and density are negatively correlated at short (10 days) timescales while positively correlated at longer (90 days) timescales. We separate these scales of variability by modeling smoothed, daily snow depth (long timescales) and the observed positive and negative anomalies from the smoothed time series (short timescales) as separate terms. A climatology of fit is also included as a predictor variable. Over half a million daily observations of depth and SWE at 345 snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) sites are used to fit models and evaluate their performance. For each location, we train the three models to the neighboring stations within 70 km, transfer the parameters to the location to be modeled, and evaluate modeled time series against the observations at that site. Our model exhibits improved statistics and qualitatively more-realistic behavior at the daily time step when sufficient local training data are available. We reduce density root mean square error (RMSE) by 9.9 and 4.5% compared to previous models while increasing R 2 from 0.46 to 0.52 to 0.56 across models. Focusing on the 21-day window around peak SWE in each water year, our model reduces density RMSE by 24 and 17.4% relative to the previous models, with R 2 increasing from 0.55 to 0.58 to 0.71 across models. Removing the challenge of parameter transfer over the full observational record increases R 2 scores for both the existing and new models, but the gain is greatest for the new model ( R 2 = 0.75). Our model shows general improvement over existing models when data are more frequent than once every 5 days and at least 3 stations are available for training.

Description: Recent human impacts and change in dynamics and morphology of ephemeral rivers Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 713-730, 2014 Author(s): J. A. Ortega, L. Razola, and G. Garzón Ephemeral streams induce flash-flood events, which cause dramatic morphological changes and impacts on population, mainly because they are intermittent and less predictable. Human pressures on the basin modify load and discharge relationships, inducing dormant instability on the fluvial system that will manifest abruptly during flood events. The flash-flood response of two ephemeral streams affected by load supply modification due to land use changes is discussed in a combination of geomorphic and hydraulic approaches. During the Rivillas flash flood, intensive clearing on the basin led to high rates of sediment flowing into an artificially straightened and inefficient channel. The stream evolved from a sinuous single channel into a shallow braiding occupying the entire width of the valley floor. Misfits and unsteady channel conditions increased velocity, stream power and sediment entrainment capacity and considerably magnified flood damage. Resulting morphosedimentary features revealed a close relationship with the valley floor post-flood hydraulic model, and pre-event awareness would have made it possible to predict risk-sensitive areas. In the second case, the Azohía stream, modelling of current pre-flood channel conditions make it possible to determine channel narrowing and entrenchment in the lower alluvial fan stretch. Abandonment of intensive agriculture, basin reforestation and urbanization diminish load contribution and trigger channel incision. This induces an increase in slope and velocity in the bankfull channel, producing renewed erosive energy and thus activating upstream propagation of incision and bank undermining. The absence of water-spreading dynamics on the alluvial fan in favour of confinement in a single channel produces an unstable dynamic in the system, also offering a false sense of stability, as long as no large magnitude floods occur. When modelling flood-prone areas and analysing hydraulic variables, it is important to detect possible anthropic disturbances that may affect basin load budgets in order to anticipate catastrophic consequences resulting from inappropriate fluvial management before the occurrence of an extraordinary event.

Description: Electrical resistivity tomography for studying liquefaction induced by the May 2012 Emilia-Romagna earthquake (Mw = 6.1, northern Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 731-737, 2014 Author(s): A. Giocoli, B. Quadrio, J. Bellanova, V. Lapenna, and S. Piscitelli This work shows the result of an electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) survey carried out for imaging and characterizing the shallow subsurface affected by the coseismic effects of the Mw = 6.1 Emilia-Romagna (northern Italy) earthquake that occurred on 20 May 2012. The most characteristic coseismic effects were ground failure, lateral spreading and liquefaction that occurred extensively along the paleo-Reno River in the urban areas of San Carlo and Mirabello (southwestern portion of Ferrara Province). In total, six electrical resistivity tomographies were performed and calibrated with surface geological surveys, exploratory boreholes and aerial photo interpretations. This was one of first applications of the electrical resistivity tomography method in investigating coseismic liquefaction.

Description: Using geographic information systems for radon exposure assessment in dwellings in the Oslo region, Norway Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 739-749, 2014 Author(s): R. Kollerud, K. Blaasaas, G. Ganerød, H. K. Daviknes, E. Aune, and B. Claussen Radon exposures were assigned to each residential address in the Oslo region using a geographic information system (GIS) that included indoor radon measurements. The results will be used in an epidemiologic study regarding leukemia and brain cancer. The model is based on 6% of measured residential buildings. High density of indoor radon measurements allowed us to develop a buffer model where indoor radon measurements found around each dwelling were used to assign a radon value for homes lacking radon measurement. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were used to study the agreement between radon values from the buffer method, from indoor radon values of measured houses, and from a regression model constructed with radiometric data ( e Th , e U ) and bedrock geology. We obtained good agreement for both comparisons with ICC values between 0.54 and 0.68. GIS offers a useful variety of tools to study the indoor-radon exposure assessment. By using the buffer method it is more likely that geological conditions are similar within the buffer and this may take more into account the variation of radon over short distances. It is also probable that short-distance-scale correlation patterns express similarities in building styles and living habits. Although the method has certain limitations, we regard it as acceptable for use in epidemiological studies.

Description: Brief Communication: On the magnitude and frequency of Khurdopin glacier surge events The Cryosphere, 8, 571-574, 2014 Author(s): D. J. Quincey and A. Luckman The return periods of Karakoram glacier surges are poorly quantified. Here, we present evidence of an historic surge of the Khurdopin Glacier that began in the mid-1970s and peaked in 1979. Measured surface displacements reached 〉5 km a −1 , two orders of magnitude faster than during quiescence. The Khurdopin Glacier next surged in the late 1990s, equating to a return period of 20 years. Surge evolution in the two events shows remarkable similarity suggesting a common trigger. Surge activity in the Karakoram needs to be better understood if accurate mass balance assessments of Hindu-Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya glaciers are to be made.

Description: Influence of snow depth distribution on surface roughness in alpine terrain: a multi-scale approach The Cryosphere, 8, 547-569, 2014 Author(s): J. Veitinger, B. Sovilla, and R. S. Purves In alpine terrain, the snow-covered winter surface deviates from its underlying summer terrain due to the progressive smoothing caused by snow accumulation. Terrain smoothing is believed to be an important factor in avalanche formation and avalanche dynamics, and it affects surface heat transfer, energy balance as well as snow depth distribution. To assess the effect of snow on terrain, we use an adequate roughness definition. We developed a method to quantify terrain smoothing by combining roughness calculations of snow surfaces and their corresponding underlying terrain with snow depth measurements. To this end, elevation models of winter and summer terrain in three selected alpine basins in the Swiss Alps characterized by low, medium and high terrain roughness were derived from high-resolution measurements performed by airborne and terrestrial lidar. The preliminary results in the selected basins reveal that, at basin scale, terrain smoothing depends not only on mean snow depth in the basin but also on its variability. The multi-temporal analysis over three winter seasons in one basin suggests that terrain smoothing can be modelled as a function of mean snow depth and its standard deviation using a power law. However, a relationship between terrain smoothing and snow depth was not found at pixel scale. Further, we show that snow surface roughness is to some extent persistent, even in-between winter seasons. Those persistent patterns might be very useful to improve the representation of a winter terrain without modelling of the snow cover distribution. This can for example improve avalanche release area definition and, in the long term, natural hazard management strategies.

Description: Changes in Imja Tsho in the Mount Everest region of Nepal The Cryosphere, 8, 1661-1671, 2014 Author(s): M. A. Somos-Valenzuela, D. C. McKinney, D. R. Rounce, and A. C. Byers Imja Tsho, located in the Sagarmatha (Everest) National Park of Nepal, is one of the most studied and rapidly growing lakes in the Himalayan range. Compared with previous studies, the results of our sonar bathymetric survey conducted in September of 2012 suggest that its maximum depth has increased from 90.5 to 116.3 ± 5.2 m since 2002, and that its estimated volume has grown from 35.8 ± 0.7 to 61.7 ± 3.7 million m 3 . Most of the expansion of the lake in recent years has taken place in the glacier terminus–lake interface on the eastern end of the lake, with the glacier receding at about 52 m yr −1 and the lake expanding in area by 0.04 km 2 yr −1 . A ground penetrating radar survey of the Imja–Lhotse Shar glacier just behind the glacier terminus shows that the ice is over 200 m thick in the center of the glacier. The volume of water that could be released from the lake in the event of a breach in the damming moraine on the western end of the lake has increased to 34.1 ± 1.08 million m 3 from the 21 million m 3 estimated in 2002.

Description: Present and future variations in Antarctic firn air content The Cryosphere, 8, 1711-1723, 2014 Author(s): S. R. M. Ligtenberg, P. Kuipers Munneke, and M. R. van den Broeke A firn densification model (FDM) is used to assess spatial and temporal (1979–2200) variations in the depth, density and temperature of the firn layer covering the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). A time-dependent version of the FDM is compared to more commonly used steady-state FDM results. Although the average AIS firn air content (FAC) of both models is similar (22.5 m), large spatial differences are found: in the ice-sheet interior, the steady-state model underestimates the FAC by up to 2 m, while the FAC is overestimated by 5–15 m along the ice-sheet margins, due to significant surface melt. Applying the steady-state FAC values to convert surface elevation to ice thickness (i.e., assuming flotation at the grounding line) potentially results in an underestimation of ice discharge at the grounding line, and hence an underestimation of current AIS mass loss by 23.5% (or 16.7 Gt yr −1 ) with regard to the reconciled estimate over the period 1992–2011. The timing of the measurement is also important, as temporal FAC variations of 1–2 m are simulated within the 33 yr period (1979–2012). Until 2200, the Antarctic FAC is projected to change due to a combination of increasing accumulation, temperature, and surface melt. The latter two result in a decrease of FAC, due to (i) more refrozen meltwater, (ii) a higher densification rate, and (iii) a faster firn-to-ice transition at the bottom of the firn layer. These effects are, however, more than compensated for by increasing snowfall, leading to a 4–14% increase in FAC. Only in melt-affected regions, future FAC is simulated to decrease, with the largest changes (−50 to −80%) on the ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula and Dronning Maud Land. Integrated over the AIS, the increase in precipitation results in a similar volume increase due to ice and air (both ~150 km 3 yr −1 until 2100). Combined, this volume increase is equivalent to a surface elevation change of +2.1 cm yr −1 , which shows that variations in firn depth remain important to consider in future mass balance studies using satellite altimetry.

Description: Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years The Cryosphere, 8, 1699-1710, 2014 Author(s): H. Seroussi, M. Morlighem, E. Rignot, J. Mouginot, E. Larour, M. Schodlok, and A. Khazendar Pine Island Glacier, a major contributor to sea level rise in West Antarctica, has been undergoing significant changes over the last few decades. Here, we employ a three-dimensional, higher-order model to simulate its evolution over the next 50 yr in response to changes in its surface mass balance, the position of its calving front and ocean-induced ice shelf melting. Simulations show that the largest climatic impact on ice dynamics is the rate of ice shelf melting, which rapidly affects the glacier speed over several hundreds of kilometers upstream of the grounding line. Our simulations show that the speedup observed in the 1990s and 2000s is consistent with an increase in sub-ice-shelf melting. According to our modeling results, even if the grounding line stabilizes for a few decades, we find that the glacier reaction can continue for several decades longer. Furthermore, Pine Island Glacier will continue to change rapidly over the coming decades and remain a major contributor to sea level rise, even if ocean-induced melting is reduced.

Description: The impact of ice layers on gas transport through firn at the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) site, Greenland The Cryosphere, 8, 1801-1806, 2014 Author(s): K. Keegan, M. R. Albert, and I. Baker Typically, gas transport through firn is modeled in the context of an idealized firn column. However, in natural firn, imperfections are present, which can alter transport dynamics and therefore reduce the accuracy of reconstructed climate records. For example, ice layers have been found in several firn cores collected in the polar regions. Here, we examined the effects of two ice layers found in a NEEM, Greenland firn core on gas transport through the firn. These ice layers were found to have permeability values of 3.0 and 4.0 × 10 −10 m 2 , and are therefore not impermeable layers. However, the shallower ice layer was found to be significantly less permeable than the surrounding firn, and can therefore retard gas transport. Large closed bubbles were found in the deeper ice layer, which will have an altered gas composition than that expected because they were closed near the surface after the water phase was present. The bubbles in this layer represent 12% of the expected closed porosity of this firn layer after the firn-ice transition depth is reached, and will therefore bias the future ice core gas record. The permeability and thickness of the ice layers at the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) site suggest that they do not disrupt the firn-air concentration profiles and that they do not need to be accounted for in gas transport models at NEEM.

Description: Assessment of heavy rainfall-induced disaster potential based on an ensemble simulation of Typhoon Talas (2011) with controlled track and intensity Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2699-2709, 2014 Author(s): Y. Oku, J. Yoshino, T. Takemi, and H. Ishikawa Typhoon Talas (2011) caused extensive damage through landslides on the Kii Peninsula, Japan, in September 2011. The purpose of the present study is to quantitatively describe the potential for the occurrence of heavy rainfall-induced disasters if the typhoon track perturbs slightly or the typhoon intensifies. Regarding to the consideration of the track displacement of the typhoon, a procedure is proposed to generate different typhoon tracks perturbed from the original track of the typhoon. In this procedure, the position of a typhoon is artificially shifted at a certain time before landing in a physically consistent manner by applying potential vorticity inversion (PVI) methodology. After relocating the typhoon, the subsequent progress is simulated by a mesoscale meteorological model. Using the output, which consists of a set of realizations having different typhoon tracks, the worst-case scenario is discussed in terms of the soil water index (SWI) of the Kii Peninsula. The SWI is an indicator of the amount of water in soil that represents the hazard of landslide disasters. The maximum spatially averaged SWI is 1.10 times as large as that from the original typhoon track. Regarding the consideration of severer typhoon, the same method is used, but the intensity of the potential vorticity of a typhoon is artificially modified at the position instead of relocating potential vorticity to a different place. The maximum spatially averaged SWI is 1.28 times as large as that of the original typhoon intensity.

Description: A novel approach to comparing simultaneous size-segregated particulate matter (PM) concentration ratios by means of a dedicated triangular diagram using the Agri Valley PM measurements as an example Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2727-2733, 2014 Author(s): A. Speranza, R. Caggiano, S. Margiotta, and S. Trippetta This work presents a novel approach to comparing and graphically representing simultaneous concentration measurements of PM 10 , PM 2.5 and PM 1 (i.e., aerosol particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 10, 2.5 and 1 μm, respectively) with similar data reported in the literature using PM 2.5 /PM 10 and PM 1 /PM 10 concentration ratios. With this aim, a dedicated triangular diagram was used. The proposed approach was applied to size-segregated particulate matter (PM) concentrations recorded in the Agri Valley (Basilicata region – southern Italy). Results show that the PM 10 , PM 2.5 and PM 1 concentrations recorded in the Agri Valley are comparable both in terms of PM concentration ratios and PM levels to an urban site.

Description: Methodology for flood frequency estimations in small catchments Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2655-2669, 2014 Author(s): V. David and T. Davidova Estimations of flood frequencies in small catchments are difficult due to a lack of measured discharge data. This problem is usually solved in the Czech Republic by hydrologic modelling when there is a reason not to use the data provided by the Czech hydrometeorological institute, which are quite expensive and have a very low level of accuracy. Another way is to use a simple method which provides sufficient estimates of flood frequency based on the available spatial data. A new methodology is being developed considering all important factors affecting flood formation in small catchments. The relationship between catchment descriptors and flood characteristics has been analysed first to get an overview of the importance of each considered descriptor. The results for different descriptors vary from a highly correlated relationship of an expected shape to a relationship which is opposite to that expected, mainly in the case of land use. The parameterisation of the methodology is also presented, including the sensitivity tests on each involved catchment descriptor and cross-validation of achieved results. In its present form, the methodology achieves an R adj 2 value of about 0.61 for 10- and 0.60 for 100-year return periods.

Description: Meteorological effects in the lower ionosphere as based on VLF/LF signal observations Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2671-2679, 2014 Author(s): A. Rozhnoi, M. Solovieva, B. Levin, M. Hayakawa, and V. Fedun Very low and low frequency (VLF/LF) data recorded in the Far Eastern stations Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (158.92° E, 53.15° N), Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (142.75° E, 46.95° N) and Yuzhno-Kurilsk (145.861° E, 44.03° N) are investigated to study the meteorological effects in the lower ionosphere. The results demonstrate the sensitivity of the VLF/LF signals to the variations of atmospheric pressure, humidity, wind velocity and temperature, and the VLF/LF record at the station of Yuzhno-Kurilsk is found to be most sensitive to those variations of atmospheric parameters. The region under consideration is characterized by high winter cyclonic activity in mid-latitudes and strong summer and autumn typhoon activity in low latitudes. VLF/LF signal variations during eight tropical cyclones (TCs) with different intensity are considered. Negative nighttime anomalies in the signal amplitude that are most probably caused by TC activity are found for six events. Those anomalies are observed during 1–2 days when TCs move inside the sensitivity zones of the subionospheric paths. Perturbations of the VLF signal observed during two TCs can be caused by both the TC influence and seismic activity, but no correlation between TC intensity and magnitude of the signal anomalies is found. Spectral analysis of the typhoon-induced disturbed signals revealed the fluctuations with time periods in the range of 7–16 and 15–55 min that corresponds to the range of internal gravity waves periods.

Description: Surface velocity and mass balance of Livingston Island ice cap, Antarctica The Cryosphere, 8, 1807-1823, 2014 Author(s): B. Osmanoglu, F. J. Navarro, R. Hock, M. Braun, and M. I. Corcuera The mass budget of the ice caps surrounding the Antarctica Peninsula and, in particular, the partitioning of its main components are poorly known. Here we approximate frontal ablation (i.e. the sum of mass losses by calving and submarine melt) and surface mass balance of the ice cap of Livingston Island, the second largest island in the South Shetland Islands archipelago, and analyse variations in surface velocity for the period 2007–2011. Velocities are obtained from feature tracking using 25 PALSAR-1 images, and used in conjunction with estimates of glacier ice thicknesses inferred from principles of glacier dynamics and ground-penetrating radar observations to estimate frontal ablation rates by a flux-gate approach. Glacier-wide surface mass-balance rates are approximated from in situ observations on two glaciers of the ice cap. Within the limitations of the large uncertainties mostly due to unknown ice thicknesses at the flux gates, we find that frontal ablation (−509 ± 263 Mt yr −1 , equivalent to −0.73 ± 0.38 m w.e. yr −1 over the ice cap area of 697 km 2 ) and surface ablation (−0.73 ± 0.10 m w.e. yr −1 ) contribute similar shares to total ablation (−1.46 ± 0.39 m w.e. yr −1 ). Total mass change (δ M = −0.67 ± 0.40 m w.e. yr −1 ) is negative despite a slightly positive surface mass balance (0.06 ± 0.14 m w.e. yr −1 ). We find large interannual and, for some basins, pronounced seasonal variations in surface velocities at the flux gates, with higher velocities in summer than in winter. Associated variations in frontal ablation (of ~237 Mt yr −1 ; −0.34 m w.e. yr −1 ) highlight the importance of taking into account the seasonality in ice velocities when computing frontal ablation with a flux-gate approach.

Description: Evaluating data quality collected by volunteers for first-level inspection of hydraulic structures in mountain catchments Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2681-2698, 2014 Author(s): V. J. Cortes Arevalo, M. Charrière, G. Bossi, S. Frigerio, L. Schenato, T. Bogaard, C. Bianchizza, A. Pasuto, and S. Sterlacchini Volunteers have been trained to perform first-level inspections of hydraulic structures within campaigns promoted by civil protection of Friuli Venezia Giulia (Italy). Two inspection forms and a learning session were prepared to standardize data collection on the functional status of bridges and check dams. In all, 11 technicians and 25 volunteers inspected a maximum of six structures in Pontebba, a mountain community within the Fella Basin. Volunteers included civil-protection volunteers, geosciences and social sciences students. Some participants carried out the inspection without attending the learning session. Thus, we used the mode of technicians in the learning group to distinguish accuracy levels between volunteers and technicians. Data quality was assessed by their accuracy, precision and completeness. We assigned ordinal scores to the rating scales in order to get an indication of the structure status. We also considered performance and feedback of participants to identify corrective actions in survey procedures. Results showed that volunteers could perform comparably to technicians, but only with a given range in precision. However, a completeness ratio (question/parameter) was still needed any time volunteers used unspecified options. Then, volunteers' ratings could be considered as preliminary assessments without replacing other procedures. Future research should consider advantages of mobile applications for data-collection methods.

Description: Preface "Progress in landslide hazard and risk evaluation" Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2711-2713, 2014 Author(s): P. Reichenbach and A. Günther

Description: Global patterns of lightning properties derived by OTD and LIS Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2715-2726, 2014 Author(s): S. Beirle, W. Koshak, R. Blakeslee, and T. Wagner The satellite instruments Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) provide unique empirical data about the frequency of lightning flashes around the globe (OTD), and the tropics (LIS), which have been used before to compile a well-received global climatology of flash rate densities. Here we present a statistical analysis of various additional lightning properties derived from OTD / LIS, i.e., the number of so-called "events" and "groups" per flash, as well as the mean flash duration, footprint and radiance. These normalized quantities, which can be associated with the flash "strength", show consistent spatial patterns; most strikingly, oceanic flashes show higher values than continental flashes for all properties. Over land, regions with high (eastern US) and low (India) flash strength can be clearly identified. We discuss possible causes for and implications of the observed regional differences. Although a direct quantitative interpretation of the investigated flash properties is difficult, the observed spatial patterns provide valuable information for the interpretation and application of climatological flash rates. Due to the systematic regional variations of physical flash characteristics, viewing conditions, and/or measurement sensitivities, parametrizations of lightning NO x based on total flash rate densities alone are probably affected by regional biases.

Description: Influence of stress, temperature and crystal morphology on isothermal densification and specific surface area decrease of new snow The Cryosphere, 8, 1825-1838, 2014 Author(s): S. Schleef, H. Löwe, and M. Schneebeli Laboratory-based, experimental data for the microstructural evolution of new snow are scarce, though applications would benefit from a quantitative characterization of the main influences. To this end, we have analyzed the metamorphism and concurrent densification of new snow under isothermal conditions by means of X-ray microtomography and compiled a comprehensive data set of 45 time series. In contrast to previous measurements on isothermal metamorphism on time scales of weeks to months, we analyzed the initial 24–48 h of snow evolution at a high temporal resolution of 3 hours. The data set comprised natural and laboratory-grown snow, and experimental conditions included systematic variations of overburden stress, temperature and crystal habit to address the main influences on specific surface area (SSA) decrease rate and densification rate in a snowpack. For all conditions, we found a linear relation between density and SSA, indicating that metamorphism has an immediate influence for the densification of new snow. The slope of the linear relation, however, depends on the other parameters which were analyzed individually to derive a best-fit parameterization for the SSA decrease rate and densification rate. In the investigated parameter range, we found that the initial value of the SSA constituted the main morphological influence on the SSA decrease rate. In turn, the SSA decrease rate constituted the main influence on the densification rate.

Description: Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance to perturbations in sea surface temperature and sea ice cover: a study with the regional climate model MAR The Cryosphere, 8, 1871-1883, 2014 Author(s): B. Noël, X. Fettweis, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, and M. Erpicum During recent summers (2007–2012), several surface melt records were broken over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). The extreme summer melt resulted in part from a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), favoring warmer atmospheric conditions than normal over the GrIS. Simultaneously, large anomalies in sea ice cover (SIC) and sea surface temperature (SST) were observed in the North Atlantic, suggesting a possible connection. To assess the direct impact of 2007–2012 SIC and SST anomalies on GrIS surface mass balance (SMB), a set of sensitivity experiments was carried out with the regional climate model MAR forced by ERA-Interim. These simulations suggest that perturbations in SST and SIC in the seas surrounding Greenland do not considerably impact GrIS SMB, as a result of the katabatic wind blocking effect. These offshore-directed winds prevent oceanic near-surface air, influenced by SIC and SST anomalies, from penetrating far inland. Therefore, the ice sheet SMB response is restricted to coastal regions, where katabatic winds cease. A topic for further investigation is how anomalies in SIC and SST might have indirectly affected the surface melt by changing the general circulation in the North Atlantic region, hence favoring more frequent warm air advection towards the GrIS.

Description: Three-phase numerical model for subsurface hydrology in permafrost-affected regions (PFLOTRAN-ICE v1.0) The Cryosphere, 8, 1935-1950, 2014 Author(s): S. Karra, S. L. Painter, and P. C. Lichtner Degradation of near-surface permafrost due to changes in the climate is expected to impact the hydrological, ecological and biogeochemical responses of the Arctic tundra. From a hydrological perspective, it is important to understand the movement of the various phases of water (gas, liquid and ice) during the freezing and thawing of near-surface soils. We present a new non-isothermal, single-component (water), three-phase formulation that treats air as an inactive component. This single component model works well and produces similar results to a more complete and computationally demanding two-component (air, water) formulation, and is able to reproduce results of previously published laboratory experiments. A proof-of-concept implementation in the massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport code PFLOTRAN is summarized, and parallel performance of that implementation is demonstrated. When water vapor diffusion is considered, a large effect on soil moisture dynamics is seen, which is due to dependence of thermal conductivity on ice content. A large three-dimensional simulation (with around 6 million degrees of freedom) of seasonal freezing and thawing is also presented.

Description: Brief Communication: On the source characteristics and impacts of the magnitude 7.2 Bohol earthquake, Philippines Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2795-2801, 2014 Author(s): A. M. F. Lagmay and R. Eco A devastating earthquake struck Bohol, Philippines, on 15 October 2013. The earthquake originated at 12 km depth from an unmapped reverse fault, which manifested on the surface for several kilometers and with maximum vertical displacement of 3 m. The earthquake resulted in 222 fatalities with damage to infrastructure estimated at USD 52.06 million. Widespread landslides and sinkholes formed in the predominantly limestone region during the earthquake. These remain a significant threat to communities as destabilized hillside slopes, landslide-dammed rivers and incipient sinkholes are still vulnerable to collapse, triggered possibly by aftershocks and heavy rains in the upcoming months of November and December. The most recent fatal temblor originated from a previously unmapped fault, herein referred to as the Inabanga Fault. Like the hidden or previously unmapped faults responsible for the 2012 Negros and 2013 Bohol earthquakes, there may be more unidentified faults that need to be mapped through field and geophysical methods. This is necessary to mitigate the possible damaging effects of future earthquakes in the Philippines.

Description: Using daily air temperature thresholds to evaluate snow melting occurrence and amount on Alpine glaciers by T -index models: the case study of the Forni Glacier (Italy) The Cryosphere, 8, 1921-1933, 2014 Author(s): A. Senese, M. Maugeri, E. Vuillermoz, C. Smiraglia, and G. Diolaiuti Glacier melt conditions (i.e., null surface temperature and positive energy budget) can be assessed by analyzing data acquired by a supraglacial automatic weather station (AWS), such as the station installed on the surface of Forni Glacier (Italian Alps). When an AWS is not present, the assessment of actual melt conditions and the evaluation of the melt amount is more difficult and simple methods based on T -index (or degree days) models are generally applied. These models require the choice of a correct temperature threshold. In fact, melt does not necessarily occur at daily air temperatures higher than 0 °C. In this paper, we applied both energy budget and T -index approaches with the aim of solving this issue. We start by distinguishing between the occurrence of snowmelt and the reduction in snow depth due to actual ablation (from snow depth data recorded by a sonic ranger). Then we find the daily average temperature thresholds (by analyzing temperature data acquired by an AWS on Forni Glacier) which, on the one hand, best capture the occurrence of significant snowmelt conditions and, on the other, make it possible, using the T -index, to quantify the actual snow ablation amount. Finally we investigated the applicability of the mean tropospheric lapse rate to reproduce air temperature conditions at the glacier surface starting from data acquired by weather stations located outside the glacier area. We found that the mean tropospheric lapse rate allows for a good and reliable reconstruction of glacier air temperatures and that the choice of an appropriate temperature threshold in T -index models is a very important issue. From our study, the application of the +0.5 °C temperature threshold allows for a consistent quantification of snow ablation while, instead, for detecting the beginning of the snow melting processes a suitable threshold has proven to be at least −4.6 °C.

Description: Blowing snow in coastal Adélie Land, Antarctica: three atmospheric-moisture issues The Cryosphere, 8, 1905-1919, 2014 Author(s): H. Barral, C. Genthon, A. Trouvilliez, C. Brun, and C. Amory A total of 3 years of blowing-snow observations and associated meteorology along a 7 m mast at site D17 in coastal Adélie Land are presented. The observations are used to address three atmospheric-moisture issues related to the occurrence of blowing snow, a feature which largely affects many regions of Antarctica: (1) blowing-snow sublimation raises the moisture content of the surface atmosphere close to saturation, and atmospheric models and meteorological analyses that do not carry blowing-snow parameterizations are affected by a systematic dry bias; (2) while snowpack modelling with a parameterization of surface-snow erosion by wind can reproduce the variability of snow accumulation and ablation, ignoring the high levels of atmospheric-moisture content associated with blowing snow results in overestimating surface sublimation, affecting the energy budget of the snowpack; (3) the well-known profile method of calculating turbulent moisture fluxes is not applicable when blowing snow occurs, because moisture gradients are weak due to blowing-snow sublimation, and the impact of measurement uncertainties are strongly amplified in the case of strong winds.

Description: Recent advances and applications of WRF–SFIRE Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2829-2845, 2014 Author(s): J. Mandel, S. Amram, J. D. Beezley, G. Kelman, A. K. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, B. H. Lynn, B. Regev, and M. Vejmelka Coupled atmosphere–fire models can now generate forecasts in real time, owing to recent advances in computational capabilities. WRF–SFIRE consists of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the fire-spread model SFIRE. This paper presents new developments, which were introduced as a response to the needs of the community interested in operational testing of WRF–SFIRE. These developments include a fuel-moisture model and a fuel-moisture-data-assimilation system based on the Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) observations, allowing for fire simulations across landscapes and time scales of varying fuel-moisture conditions. The paper also describes the implementation of a coupling with the atmospheric chemistry and aerosol schemes in WRF–Chem, which allows for a simulation of smoke dispersion and effects of fires on air quality. There is also a data-assimilation method, which provides the capability of starting the fire simulations from an observed fire perimeter, instead of an ignition point. Finally, an example of operational deployment in Israel, utilizing some of the new visualization and data-management tools, is presented.

Description: Rn and CO 2 geochemistry of soil gas across the active fault zones in the capital area of China Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2803-2815, 2014 Author(s): X. Han, Y. Li, J. Du, X. Zhou, C. Xie, and W. Zhang The present work is proposed to investigate the spatiotemporal variations in soil gas Rn and CO 2 across the active faults in the capital area of China in order to understand fault activities and assess seismic hazard. A total of 342 soil gas sampling sites were measured twice in 2011 and 2012 along seven profiles and across four faults. The results of soil gas surveys show that, in each profile, due to the variation in gas emission rate, the concentrations of Rn and CO 2 changed in the vicinity of faults. Spatial distributions of Rn and CO 2 in the study areas were different from each other, which was attributed to soil types affecting the existence of Rn and CO 2 . Compared with the measurement result of 2011, the increasing amplitude of average concentration value of Rn and CO 2 in profiles in 2012 ranged from 30.2 to 123.4% and 66.3 to 131.7%, respectively, which were coincident with the enhancement of seismic activities in the capital area of China. Our results indicate that special attention with regard to seismic monitoring should be paid to the Xinbaoan–Shacheng Fault and the northeastern segment of the Tangshan Fault in the future.