ALBERT

Description: Review Article: On the relation between the seismic activity and the Hurst exponent of the geomagnetic field at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2189-2194, 2013 Author(s): F. Masci and J. N. Thomas Many papers document the observation of earthquake-related precursory signatures in geomagnetic field data. However, the significance of these findings is ambiguous because the authors did not adequately take into account that these signals could have been generated by other sources, and the seismogenic origin of these signals have not been validated by comparison with independent datasets. Thus, they are not reliable examples of magnetic disturbances induced by the seismic activity. Hayakawa et al. (2004) claim that at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm the Hurst exponent of the Ultra-Low-Frequency (ULF: 0.001–10 Hz) band of the geomagnetic field varied in accord with the energy released by the seismicity. The present paper demonstrates that the behaviour of the Hurst exponent was insufficiently investigated and also misinterpreted by the authors. We clearly show that during the Izu swarm the changes of the Hurst exponent were strongly related to the level of global geomagnetic activity and not to the increase of the local seismic activity.

Description: Forest fire danger rating in complex topography – results from a case study in the Bavarian Alps in autumn 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2157-2167, 2013 Author(s): C. Schunk, C. Wastl, M. Leuchner, C. Schuster, and A. Menzel Forest fire danger rating based on sparse meteorological stations is known to be potentially misleading when assigned to larger areas of complex topography. This case study examines several fire danger indices based on data from two meteorological stations at different elevations during a major drought period. This drought was caused by a persistent high pressure system, inducing a pronounced temperature inversion and its associated thermal belt with much warmer, dryer conditions in intermediate elevations. Thus, a massive drying of fuels, leading to higher fire danger levels, and multiple fire occurrences at mid-slope positions were contrasted by moderate fire danger especially in the valleys. The ability of fire danger indices to resolve this situation was studied based on a comparison with the actual fire danger as determined from expert observations, fire occurrences and fuel moisture measurements. The results revealed that, during temperature inversion, differences in daily cycles of meteorological parameters influence fire danger and that these are not resolved by standard meteorological stations and fire danger indices (calculated on a once-a-day basis). Additional stations in higher locations or high-resolution meteorological models combined with fire danger indices accepting at least hourly input data may allow reasonable fire danger calculations under these circumstances.

Description: Preface "Landslide hazard and risk assessment at different scales" Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2169-2171, 2013 Author(s): P. Reichenbach, A. Günther, and T. Glade

Description: Linking ICT and society in early warning and adaptation to hydrological extremes in mountains Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2253-2270, 2013 Author(s): C. de Jong The assessment of the societal impact of hydrological extremes is particularly important in mountain regions, since mountains can be considered both as the generators and victims of extreme events. ICT can provide a powerful tool for transmitting hydro-meteorological information to predict, prepare and adapt to such events. However, in remote regions, such as mountains, the poles, deserts and islands, preventive and adaptive measures are often restricted by data availability and lack and/or incoherence of data networks. This paper distinguishes between early warning of floods and droughts, emphasising the latter in particular in mountains and explores the possibilities of enhancing the role of society in data collection, the identification, activation and application of stakeholder knowledge and transferral of data from gauged to ungauged catchments.

Description: The environmental impact of the Puyehue–Cordon Caulle 2011 volcanic eruption on Buenos Aires Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2319-2330, 2013 Author(s): G. B. Raga, D. Baumgardner, A. G. Ulke, M. Torres Brizuela, and B. Kucienska On 4 June 2011, the volcanic complex Puyehue–Cordon Caulle located in the Chilean Andes erupted, producing a plume of gases and particles that eventually circled the Southern Hemisphere, disrupting air travel and depositing ash in large quantities. On eight occasions, the plume passed over the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, leading local authorities to close the two international airports. The eruption occurred during an on-going field campaign when measurements of the properties of atmospheric aerosol particles were being made in Buenos Aires as part of a year-long study of the concentration and optical properties of aerosol at one site in the city. The suite of instruments deployed in Buenos Aires were not tailored to measurements of volcanic ash, but were designed to characterize urban conditions. Nevertheless, these measurements were analysed for periods when vertical profiles of aerosol backscatter, made with a ceilometer, clearly showed the presence of the volcano plume over the research site and resulted in airport closure. Aerosol optical thickness derived from AERONET, MODIS and a ceilometer at our research site, all show enhanced values clearly indicating that the three platforms identified the volcanic plume simultaneously. However, a quantitative comparison of the different estimates proves difficult, suggesting large spatial and temporal variability of the plume. Our results indicate that the number concentration of condensation nuclei (CN), the mass concentration of particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PPAH) and the light absorption coefficient exceeded the average background values by more than one standard deviation during the events of volcanic plume. The anomalous concentrations of CN suggest new particle formation, presumably from the conversion of SO 2 , while the anomalous concentrations of PPAH may come from the uptake of PAHs on the plume particles or from chemical reactions on the surface of plume particles. The anomalous absorption coefficients indicate that plume particles may contain certain compounds that can absorb radiation at 550 nm. Another possible explanation consistent with the observations is the scavenging of black carbon from urban sources as the plume descends through the boundary layer to the surface. In addition, the volcanic plume influenced the local meteorology resulting in a decrease of the temperature when compared to the average temperature during days with no plume present.

Description: Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2301-2318, 2013 Author(s): A. Beckers, B. Dewals, S. Erpicum, S. Dujardin, S. Detrembleur, J. Teller, M. Pirotton, and P. Archambeau Managing flood risk in Europe is a critical issue because climate change is expected to increase flood hazard in many european countries. Beside climate change, land use evolution is also a key factor influencing future flood risk. The core contribution of this paper is a new methodology to model residential land use evolution. Based on two climate scenarios ("dry" and "wet"), the method is applied to study the evolution of flood damage by 2100 along the river Meuse. Nine urbanization scenarios were developed: three of them assume a "current trend" land use evolution, leading to a significant urban sprawl, while six others assume a dense urban development, characterized by a higher density and a higher diversity of urban functions in the urbanized areas. Using damage curves, the damage estimation was performed by combining inundation maps for the present and future 100 yr flood with present and future land use maps and specific prices. According to the dry scenario, the flood discharge is expected not to increase. In this case, land use changes increase flood damages by 1–40%, to €334–462 million in 2100. In the wet scenario, the relative increase in flood damage is 540–630%, corresponding to total damages of €2.1–2.4 billion. In this extreme scenario, the influence of climate on the overall damage is 3–8 times higher than the effect of land use change. However, for seven municipalities along the river Meuse, these two factors have a comparable influence. Consequently, in the "wet" scenario and at the level of the whole Meuse valley in the Walloon region, careful spatial planning would reduce the increase in flood damage by no more than 11–23%; but, at the level of several municipalities, more sustainable spatial planning would reduce future flood damage to a much greater degree.

Description: Estimating soil suction from electrical resistivity Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2369-2379, 2013 Author(s): E. Piegari and R. Di Maio Soil suction and resistivity strongly depend on the degree of soil saturation and, therefore, both are used for estimating water content variations. The main difference between them is that soil suction is measured using tensiometers, which give point information, while resistivity is obtained by tomography surveys, which provide distributions of resistivity values in large volumes, although with less accuracy. In this paper, we have related soil suction to electrical resistivity with the aim of obtaining information about soil suction changes in large volumes, and not only for small areas around soil suction probes. We derived analytical relationships between soil matric suction and electrical resistivity by combining the empirical laws of van Genuchten and Archie. The obtained relationships were used to evaluate maps of soil suction values in different ashy layers originating in the explosive activity of the Mt Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy). Our findings provided a further example of the high potential of geophysical methods in contributing to more effective monitoring of soil stress conditions; this is of primary importance in areas where rainfall-induced landslides occur periodically.

Description: Sulfur dioxide emissions from Papandayan and Bromo, two Indonesian volcanoes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2399-2407, 2013 Author(s): P. Bani, Surono, M. Hendrasto, H. Gunawan, and S. Primulyana Indonesia hosts 79 active volcanoes, representing 14% of all active volcanoes worldwide. However, little is known about their SO 2 contribution into the atmosphere, due to isolation and access difficulties. Existing SO 2 emission budgets for the Indonesian archipelago are based on extrapolations and inferences as there is a considerable lack of field assessments of degassing. Here, we present the first SO 2 flux measurements using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) for Papandayan and Bromo, two of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia. Results indicate mean SO 2 emission rates of 1.4 t d −1 from the fumarolic activity of Papandayan and more than 22–32 t d −1 of SO 2 released by Bromo during a declining eruptive phase. These DOAS results are very encouraging and pave the way for a better evaluation of Indonesian volcanic emissions.

Description: Interviewing insights regarding the fatalities inflicted by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2173-2187, 2013 Author(s): M. Ando, M. Ishida, Y. Hayashi, C. Mizuki, Y. Nishikawa, and Y. Tu One hundred fifty survivors of the 11 March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (Tohoku-oki earthquake) ( M w = 9.0) were interviewed to study the causes of deaths from the associated tsunami in coastal areas of Tohoku. The first official tsunami warning underestimated the height of the tsunami and 40% of the interviewees did not obtain this warning due to immediate blackouts and a lack of communication after the earthquake. Many chose to remain in dangerous locations based on the underestimated warning and their experiences with previous smaller tsunamis and/or due to misunderstanding the mitigating effects of nearby breakwaters in blocking incoming tsunamis. Some delayed their evacuation to perform family safety checks, and in many situations, the people affected misunderstood the risks involved in tsunamis. In this area, three large tsunamis have struck in the 115 yr preceding the 2011 tsunami. These tsunamis remained in the collective memory of communities, and numerous measures against future tsunami damage, such as breakwaters and tsunami evacuation drills, had been implemented. Despite these preparedness efforts, approximately 18 500 deaths and cases of missing persons occurred. The death rate with the age of 65 and above was particularly high, four times higher than that with other age groups. These interviews indicate that deaths resulted from a variety of reasons, but if residents had taken immediate action after the major ground motion stopped, most residents might have been saved. Education about the science behind earthquakes and tsunamis could help save more lives in the future.

Description: Magnetic field and dynamic pressure ULF fluctuations in coronal-mass-ejection-driven sheath regions Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1559-1567, 2013 Author(s): E. K. J. Kilpua, H. Hietala, H. E. J. Koskinen, D. Fontaine, and L. Turc Compressed sheath regions form ahead of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that are sufficiently faster than the preceding solar wind. The turbulent sheath regions are important drivers of magnetospheric activity, but due to their complex internal structure, relatively little is known on the distribution of the magnetic field and plasma variations in them. In this paper we investigate ultra low frequency (ULF) fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and in dynamic pressure ( P dyn ) using a superposed epoch analysis of 41 sheath regions observed during solar cycle 23. We find strongest fluctuation power near the shock and in the vicinity of the ICME leading edge. The IMF and P dyn ULF power have different profiles within the sheath; the former is enhanced in the leading part of the sheath, while the latter is increased in the trailing part of the sheath. We also find that the ICME properties affect the level and distribution of the ULF power in sheath regions. For example, sheath regions associated with strong or fast ICMEs, or those that are crossed at intermediate distances from the center, have strongest ULF power and large variation in the power throughout the sheath region. The weaker or slower ICMEs, or those that are crossed centrally, have in general considerably weaker ULF power with relatively smooth profiles. The strong and abrupt decrease of the IMF ULF power at the ICME leading edge could be used to distinguish the ICME from the preceding sheath plasma.

Description: Cluster observation of few-hour-scale evolution of structured plasma in the inner magnetosphere Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1569-1578, 2013 Author(s): M. Yamauchi, I. Dandouras, H. Rème, R. Lundin, and L. M. Kistler Using Cluster Ion Spectrometry (CIS) data from the spacecraft-4 perigee traversals during the 2001–2006 period (nearly 500 traversals after removing those that are highly contaminated by radiation belt particles), we statistically examined the local time distribution of structured trapped ions at sub- to few-keV range as well as inbound–outbound differences of these ion signatures in intensities and energy–latitude dispersion directions. Since the Cluster orbit during this period was almost constant and approximately north–south symmetric at nearly constant local time near the perigee, inbound–outbound differences are attributed to temporal developments in a 1–2 h timescale. Three types of structured ions at sub- to few keV range that are commonly found in the inner magnetosphere are examined: – Energy–latitude dispersed structured ions at less than a few keV, – Short-lived dispersionless ion stripes at wide energy range extending 0.1–10 keV, – Short-lived low-energy ion bursts at less than a few hundred eV. The statistics revealed that the wedge-like dispersed ions are most often observed in the dawn sector (60% of traversals), and a large portion of them show significant enhancement during the traversals at all local times. The short-lived ion stripes are predominantly found near midnight, where most stripes are significantly enhanced during the traversals and are associated with substorm activities with geomagnetic AL 〈 −300 nT. The low-energy bursts are observed at all local times and under all geomagnetic conditions, with moderate peak of the occurrence rate in the afternoon sector. A large portion of them again show significant enhancement or decay during the traversals.

Description: Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great ( M w = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2279-2299, 2013 Author(s): T. R. Robinson and T. R. H. Davies The Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island has not sustained a large magnitude earthquake since ca. AD 1717. The time since this rupture is close to the average inferred recurrence interval of the fault (~300 yr). The Alpine Fault is therefore expected to generate a large magnitude earthquake in the near future. Previous ruptures of this fault are inferred to have generated M w = 8.0 or greater earthquakes and to have resulted in, amongst other geomorphic hazards, large-scale landslides and landslide dams throughout the Southern Alps. There is currently 85% probability that the Alpine Fault will cause a M w = 8.0+ earthquake within the next 100 yr. While the seismic hazard is fairly well understood, that of the consequential geomorphic activity is less well studied, and these consequences are explored herein. They are expected to include landsliding, landslide damming, dam-break flooding, debris flows, river aggradation, liquefaction, and landslide-generated lake/fiord tsunami. Using evidence from previous events within New Zealand as well as analogous international examples, we develop first-order estimates of the likely magnitude and possible locations of the geomorphic effects associated with earthquakes. Landsliding is expected to affect an area 〉 30 000 km 2 and involve 〉 1billion m 3 of material. Some tens of landslide dams are expected to occur in narrow, steep-sided gorges in the affected region. Debris flows will be generated in the first long-duration rainfall after the earthquake and will continue to occur for several years as rainfall (re)mobilises landslide material. In total more than 1000 debris flows are likely to be generated at some time after the earthquake. Aggradation of up to 3 m will cover an area 〉 125 km 2 and is likely to occur on many West Coast alluvial fans and floodplains. The impact of these effects will be felt across the entire South Island and is likely to continue for several decades.

Description: Integrating spatial, temporal, and size probabilities for the annual landslide hazard maps in the Shihmen watershed, Taiwan Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2353-2367, 2013 Author(s): C. Y. Wu and S. C. Chen Landslide spatial, temporal, and size probabilities were used to perform a landslide hazard assessment in this study. Eleven intrinsic geomorphological, and two extrinsic rainfall factors were evaluated as landslide susceptibility related factors as they related to the success rate curves, landslide ratio plots, frequency distributions of landslide and non-landslide groups, as well as probability–probability plots. Data on landslides caused by Typhoon Aere in the Shihmen watershed were selected to train the susceptibility model. The landslide area probability, based on the power law relationship between the landslide area and a noncumulative number, was analyzed using the Pearson type 5 probability density function. The exceedance probabilities of rainfall with various recurrence intervals, including 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 yr, were used to determine the temporal probabilities of the events. The study was conducted in the Shihmen watershed, which has an area of 760 km 2 and is one of the main water sources for northern Taiwan. The validation result of Typhoon Krosa demonstrated that this landslide hazard model could be used to predict the landslide probabilities. The results suggested that integration of spatial, area, and exceedance probabilities to estimate the annual probability of each slope unit is feasible. The advantage of this annual landslide probability model lies in its ability to estimate the annual landslide risk, instead of a scenario-based risk.

Description: On the puzzling feature of the silence of precursory electromagnetic emissions Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2381-2397, 2013 Author(s): K. Eftaxias, S. M. Potirakis, and T. Chelidze It has been suggested that fracture-induced MHz–kHz electromagnetic emissions (EME), which emerge from a few days up to a few hours before the main seismic shock occurrence permit a real-time monitoring of the damage process during the last stages of earthquake preparation, as it happens at the laboratory scale. Despite fairly abundant evidence, electromagnetic (EM) precursors have not been adequately accepted as credible physical phenomena. These negative views are enhanced by the fact that certain "puzzling features" are repetitively observed in candidate fracture-induced pre-seismic EME. More precisely, EM silence in all frequency bands appears before the main seismic shock occurrence, as well as during the aftershock period. Actually, the view that "acceptance of "precursive" EM signals without convincing co-seismic signals should not be expected" seems to be reasonable. In this work we focus on this point. We examine whether the aforementioned features of EM silence are really puzzling ones or, instead, reflect well-documented characteristic features of the fracture process, in terms of universal structural patterns of the fracture process, recent laboratory experiments, numerical and theoretical studies of fracture dynamics, critical phenomena, percolation theory, and micromechanics of granular materials. Our analysis shows that these features should not be considered puzzling.

Description: Influence of the terrestrial magnetic field geometry on the cutoff rigidity of cosmic ray particles Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1637-1643, 2013 Author(s): K. Herbst, A. Kopp, and B. Heber Studies of the propagation of charged energetic particles in the Earth's magnetic field go back to Carl Størmer. In the end, his investigations finally lead to the definition of the so-called cutoff rigidity R C ; that is, the minimum momentum per charge a particle must have in order to reach a certain geographical location. Employing Monte Carlo simulations with the PLANETOCOSMICS code we investigate the correlation between the geomagnetic field structure and the cutoff rigidity. We show that the geometry of the magnetic field has a considerable influence on the resulting cutoff rigidity distribution. Furthermore, we will present a simple geometry-based parameter, δ B , which is able to reflect the location-dependent cutoff rigidity. We show that this correlation is also visible in the temporal evolution of the Earth's magnetic field, at least over the last 100 yr. Using latitude scans with neutron monitors, changes of the relative counting rates at different positions are calculated, showing small variations for, e.g., Kiel and Moscow, while large ones occur at Mexico City as well as on the British Virgin Islands.

Description: Electron acceleration at Jupiter: input from cyclotron-resonant interaction with whistler-mode chorus waves Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1619-1630, 2013 Author(s): E. E. Woodfield, R. B. Horne, S. A. Glauert, J. D. Menietti, and Y. Y. Shprits Jupiter has the most intense radiation belts of all the outer planets. It is not yet known how electrons can be accelerated to energies of 10 MeV or more. It has been suggested that cyclotron-resonant wave-particle interactions by chorus waves could accelerate electrons to a few MeV near the orbit of Io. Here we use the chorus wave intensities observed by the Galileo spacecraft to calculate the changes in electron flux as a result of pitch angle and energy diffusion. We show that, when the bandwidth of the waves and its variation with L are taken into account, pitch angle and energy diffusion due to chorus waves is a factor of 8 larger at L -shells greater than 10 than previously shown. We have used the latitudinal wave intensity profile from Galileo data to model the time evolution of the electron flux using the British Antarctic Survey Radiation Belt (BAS) model. This profile confines intense chorus waves near the magnetic equator with a peak intensity at ∼5° latitude. Electron fluxes in the BAS model increase by an order of magnitude for energies around 3 MeV. Extending our results to L = 14 shows that cyclotron-resonant interactions with chorus waves are equally important for electron acceleration beyond L = 10. These results suggest that there is significant electron acceleration by cyclotron-resonant interactions at Jupiter contributing to the creation of Jupiter's radiation belts and also increasing the range of L -shells over which this mechanism should be considered.

Description: The coupling between the solar wind and proton fluxes at GEO Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1631-1636, 2013 Author(s): R. J. Boynton, S. A. Billings, O. A. Amariutei, and I. Moiseenko The relationship between the solar wind and the proton flux at geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) is investigated using the error reduction ratio (ERR) analysis. The ERR analysis is able to search for the most appropriate inputs that control the evolution of the system. This approach is a black box method and is able to derive a mathematical model of a system from input-output data. This method is used to analyse eight energy ranges of the proton flux at GEO from 80 keV to 14.5 MeV. The inputs to the algorithm were solar wind velocity, density and pressure; the Dst index; the solar energetic proton (SEP) flux; and a function of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) tangential magnitude and clock angle. The results show that for lowest five energy channels (80 to 800 keV) the GEO proton fluxes are controlled by the solar wind velocity with a lag of two to three days. However, above 350 keV, the SEP fluxes, accounts for a significant portion of the GEO proton flux variance. For the highest three energy channels (0.74 to 14.5 MeV), the SEPs account for the majority of the ERR. The results also show an anisotropy of protons with gyrocenters inside GEO and outside GEO, where the protons inside GEO are controlled partly by the Dst index and also an IMF-clock angle function.

Description: Early warning of snow-caused disasters in pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1411-1425, 2013 Author(s): W. Wang, T. Liang, X. Huang, Q. Feng, H. Xie, X. Liu, M. Chen, and X. Wang This study develops a model for early warning of snow-caused livestock disasters on a county basis and proposes a method of qualitative risk assessment of snow disasters at 500 m resolution for pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Data used for the model development include remote sensing data, statistical data of weather, livestock, and social economy, and 45 typical snow disaster cases from 2000 to 2010. The principal component analysis (PCA) approach is used to choose 7 crucial factors that contribute over 85% of information for early warning snow disasters on the TP. They are mean annual probability of snow disaster, number of snow-covered days, livestock stocking rate, continual days of mean daily temperature below −10 °C, grassland burial index, rate of snow-covered grassland, and per livestock gross domestic product. The chosen 411 cases from 2008 to 2010 are used to validate the prediction results from the developed early warning model, with an overall accuracy of 85.64% in predicting snow disasters and no disasters. This suggests that the early warning approach developed in the study has operational potential for predicting snow disasters on the TP.

Description: How much does participatory flood management contribute to stakeholders' social capacity building? Empirical findings based on a triangulation of three evaluation approaches Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1427-1444, 2013 Author(s): M. Buchecker, S. Menzel, and R. Home Recent literature suggests that dialogic forms of risk communication are more effective to build stakeholders' hazard-related social capacities. In spite of the high theoretical expectations, there is a lack of univocal empirical evidence on the relevance of these effects. This is mainly due to the methodological limitations of the existing evaluation approaches. In our paper we aim at eliciting the contribution of participatory river revitalisation projects on stakeholders' social capacity building by triangulating the findings of three evaluation studies that were based on different approaches: a field-experimental, a qualitative long-term ex-post and a cross-sectional household survey approach. The results revealed that social learning and avoiding the loss of trust were more relevant benefits of participatory flood management than acceptance building. The results suggest that stakeholder involvements should be more explicitly designed as tools for long-term social learning.

Description: A statistical study on O + flux in the dayside magnetosheath Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1005-1010, 2013 Author(s): R. Slapak, H. Nilsson, and L. G. Westerberg Studies on terrestrial oxygen ion (O + ) escape into the interplanetary space have considered a number of different escape paths. Recent observations however suggest a yet insufficiently investigated additional escape route for hot O + : along open magnetic field lines in the high altitude cusp and mantle. Here we present a statistical study on O + flux in the high-latitude dayside magnetosheath. The O + is generally seen relatively close to the magnetopause, consistent with observations of O + flowing primarily tangentially to the magnetopause. We estimate the total escape flux in this region to be ~ 7 × 10 24 s −1 , implying this escape route to significantly contribute to the overall total O + loss into interplanetary space.

Description: Stakeholders' issues for action during the warning process and the interpretation of forecasts' uncertainties Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1469-1479, 2013 Author(s): L. Créton-Cazanave and C. Lutoff This article considers the socio-geographical approach carried out as part of the MedUp program. It presents a study of the ways that the French "actors" manage forecast uncertainties during a flash flood warning process. In order to better understand the role of forecasts' uncertainties in decision making, we focused on the actions people took and how what they say explains their actions. The practices of actors involved in warnings for the Vidourle watershed (Gard, France), in particular, are analyzed using a practice-based approach. A set of categories of the "actors" was developed based on their descriptions of the problems they faced during the flash flood warning, independent of their socio-professional status and position in the warning chain. Five actor profiles result from this: Translators, Managers, Committed, Navigators and Vulnerable. For each profile, specific action contexts are defined, determining how each deals with uncertainty.

Description: Augmenting Austrian flood management practices through geospatial predictive analytics: a study in Carinthia Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1445-1455, 2013 Author(s): S. M. Ward and G. Paulus The Danube River basin has long been the location of significant flooding problems across central Europe. The last decade has seen a sharp increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of these flood events, unveiling a dire need for enhanced flood management policy and tools in the region. Located in the southern portion of Austria, the state of Carinthia has experienced a significant volume of intense flood impacts over the last decade. Although the Austrian government has acknowledged these issues, their remedial actions have been primarily structural to date. Continued focus on controlling the natural environment through infrastructure while disregarding the need to consider alternative forms of assessing flood exposure will only act as a provisional solution to this inescapable risk. In an attempt to remedy this flaw, this paper highlights the application of geospatial predictive analytics and spatial recovery index as a proxy for community resilience, as well as the cultural challenges associated with the application of foreign models within an Austrian environment.

Description: Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate Annales Geophysicae, 31, 995-1004, 2013 Author(s): Y. Wang, X. Yan, and Z. Wang In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07–0.14 °C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 °C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 °C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation.

Description: IMF effect on the polar cap contraction and expansion during a period of substorms Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1021-1034, 2013 Author(s): A. T. Aikio, T. Pitkänen, I. Honkonen, M. Palmroth, and O. Amm The polar cap boundary (PCB) location and motion in the nightside ionosphere has been studied by using measurements from the EISCAT radars and the MIRACLE magnetometers during a period of four substorms on 18 February 2004. The OMNI database has been used for observations of the solar wind and the Geotail satellite for magnetospheric measurements. In addition, the event was modelled by the GUMICS-4 MHD simulation. The simulation of the PCB location was in a rather good agreement with the experimental estimates at the EISCAT longitude. During the first three substorm expansion phases, neither the local observations nor the global simulation showed any poleward motions of the PCB, even though the electrojets intensified. Rapid poleward motions of the PCB took place only in the early recovery phases of the substorms. Hence, in these cases the nightside reconnection rate was locally higher in the recovery phase than in the expansion phase. In addition, we suggest that the IMF B z component correlated with the nightside tail inclination angle and the PCB location with about a 17-min delay from the bow shock. By taking the delay into account, the IMF northward turnings were associated with dipolarizations of the magnetotail and poleward motions of the PCB in the recovery phase. The mechanism behind this effect should be studied further.

Description: A comparison of bow shock models with Cluster observations during low Alfvén Mach number magnetic clouds Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1011-1019, 2013 Author(s): L. Turc, D. Fontaine, P. Savoini, H. Hietala, and E. K. J. Kilpua Magnetic clouds (MCs) are very geoeffective solar wind structures. Their properties in the interplanetary medium have been extensively studied, yet little is known about their characteristics in the Earth's magnetosheath. The Cluster spacecraft offer the opportunity to observe MCs in the magnetosheath, but before MCs reach the magnetosphere, their structure is altered when they interact with the terrestrial bow shock (BS). The physics taking place at the BS strongly depends on Θ Bn , the angle between the shock normal and the interplanetary magnetic field. However, in situ observations of the BS during an MC's crossing are seldom available. In order to relate magnetosheath observations to solar wind conditions, we need to rely on a model to determine the shock's position and normal direction. Yet during MCs, the models tend to be less accurate, because the Alfvén Mach number ( M A ) is often significantly lower than in regular solar wind. On the contrary, the models are generally optimised for high M A conditions. In this study, we compare the predictions of four widely used models available in the literature (Wu et al., 2000; Chapman and Cairns, 2003; Jeřáb et al., 2005; Měrka et al., 2005b) to Cluster's dayside BS crossings observed during five MC events. Our analysis shows that the Θ Bn angle is well predicted by all four models. On the other hand, the Jeřáb et al. (2005) model yields the best estimates of the BS position during low M A MCs. The other models locate the BS either too far from or too close to Earth. The results of this paper can be directly used to estimate the BS parameters in all studies of MC interaction with Earth's magnetosphere.

Description: CDRD and PNPR satellite passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithms: EuroTRMM/EURAINSAT origins and H-SAF operations Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 887-912, 2013 Author(s): A. Mugnai, E. A. Smith, G. J. Tripoli, B. Bizzarri, D. Casella, S. Dietrich, F. Di Paola, G. Panegrossi, and P. Sanò Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) is a EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) program, designed to deliver satellite products of hydrological interest (precipitation, soil moisture and snow parameters) over the European and Mediterranean region to research and operations users worldwide. Six satellite precipitation algorithms and concomitant precipitation products are the responsibility of various agencies in Italy. Two of these algorithms have been designed for maximum accuracy by restricting their inputs to measurements from conical and cross-track scanning passive microwave (PMW) radiometers mounted on various low Earth orbiting satellites. They have been developed at the Italian National Research Council/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate in Rome (CNR/ISAC-Rome), and are providing operational retrievals of surface rain rate and its phase properties. Each of these algorithms is physically based, however, the first of these, referred to as the Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database (CDRD) algorithm, uses a Bayesian-based solution solver, while the second, referred to as the PMW Neural-net Precipitation Retrieval (PNPR) algorithm, uses a neural network-based solution solver. Herein we first provide an overview of the two initial EU research and applications programs that motivated their initial development, EuroTRMM and EURAINSAT (European Satellite Rainfall Analysis and Monitoring at the Geostationary Scale), and the current H-SAF program that provides the framework for their operational use and continued development. We stress the relevance of the CDRD and PNPR algorithms and their precipitation products in helping secure the goals of H-SAF's scientific and operations agenda, the former helpful as a secondary calibration reference to other algorithms in H-SAF's complete mix of algorithms. Descriptions of the algorithms' designs are provided including a few examples of their performance. This aspect of the development of the two algorithms is placed in the context of what we refer to as the TRMM era, which is the era denoting the active and ongoing period of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) that helped inspire their original development. In 2015, the ISAC-Rome precipitation algorithms will undergo a transformation beginning with the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, particularly the GPM Core Satellite technologies. A few years afterward, the first pair of imaging and sounding Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satellites will be launched, providing additional technological advances. Various of the opportunities presented by the GPM Core and MTG satellites for improving the current CDRD and PNPR precipitation retrieval algorithms, as well as extending their product capability, are discussed.

Description: Investigation of radiative effects of the optically thick dust layer over the Indian tropical region Annales Geophysicae, 31, 647-663, 2013 Author(s): S. K. Das, J.-P. Chen, M. Venkat Ratnam, and A. Jayaraman Optical and physical properties of aerosols derived from multi-satellite observations (MODIS-Aqua, OMI-Aura, MISR-Terra, CALIOP-CALIPSO) have been used to estimate radiative effects of the dust layer over southern India. The vertical distribution of aerosol radiative forcing and heating rates are calculated with 100 m resolution in the lower atmosphere, using temperature and relative humidity data from balloon-borne radiosonde observations. The present study investigates the optically thick dust layer of optical thickness 0.18 ± 0.06 at an altitude of 2.5 ± 0.7 km over Gadanki, transported from the Thar Desert, producing radiative forcing and heating rate of 11.5 ± 3.3 W m −2 and 0.6 ± 0.26 K day −1 , respectively, with a forcing efficiency of 43 W m −2 and an effective heating rate of 4 K day −1 per unit dust optical depth. Presence of the dust layer increases radiative forcing by 60% and heating rate by 60 times at that altitude compared to non-dusty cloud-free days. Calculation shows that the radiative effects of the dust layer strongly depend on the boundary layer aerosol type and mass loading. An increase of 25% of heating by the dust layer is found over relatively cleaner regions than urban regions in southern India and further 15% of heating increases over the marine region. Such heating differences in free troposphere may have significant consequences in the atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle over the tropical Indian region.

Description: Low level jet intensification by mineral dust aerosols Annales Geophysicae, 31, 625-632, 2013 Author(s): O. Alizadeh Choobari, P. Zawar-Reza, and A. Sturman Modification of the intensity of a low level jet (LLJ) and near-surface wind speed by mineral dust is important as it has implications for dust emission and its long-range transport. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) regional model, it is shown that direct radiative forcing by mineral dust reduces temperature in the lower atmosphere, but increases it in the layers aloft. The surface cooling is shown to be associated with a reduction of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and hence vertical mixing of horizontal momentum. Changes in the vertical profile of temperature over the regions that are under the influence of a LLJ are shown to result in an intensification of the LLJ and near-surface wind speed, but a decrease of winds aloft. These changes in the wind speed profile differ from results of previous research which suggested a decrease of wind speed in the lower atmosphere and its increase in the upper boundary layer.

Description: Parametric validations of analytical lifetime estimates for radiation belt electron diffusion by whistler waves Annales Geophysicae, 31, 599-624, 2013 Author(s): A. V. Artemyev, D. Mourenas, O. V. Agapitov, and V. V. Krasnoselskikh The lifetimes of electrons trapped in Earth's radiation belts can be calculated from quasi-linear pitch-angle diffusion by whistler-mode waves, provided that their frequency spectrum is broad enough and/or their average amplitude is not too large. Extensive comparisons between improved analytical lifetime estimates and full numerical calculations have been performed in a broad parameter range representative of a large part of the magnetosphere from L ~ 2 to 6. The effects of observed very oblique whistler waves are taken into account in both numerical and analytical calculations. Analytical lifetimes (and pitch-angle diffusion coefficients) are found to be in good agreement with full numerical calculations based on CRRES and Cluster hiss and lightning-generated wave measurements inside the plasmasphere and Cluster lower-band chorus waves measurements in the outer belt for electron energies ranging from 100 keV to 5 MeV. Comparisons with lifetimes recently obtained from electron flux measurements on SAMPEX, SCATHA, SAC-C and DEMETER also show reasonable agreement.

Description: Coherent amplitude modulation of electron-beam-driven Langmuir waves Annales Geophysicae, 31, 633-638, 2013 Author(s): K. Baumgärtel A linear approach to the phenomenon of irregular amplitude modulation of beam-driven Langmuir waves, developed in a previous paper, is extended to explain periodic modulation as well. It comes about by beating of the fastest growing mode of the instability with beam-aligned plasma oscillations. They are naturally generated in a uniform domain of beam–plasma interaction prior to the onset of the instability. Particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations support the results of the linear analysis.

Description: Seasonal variation of the ion upflow in the topside ionosphere during SAPS (subauroral polarization stream) periods Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1521-1534, 2013 Author(s): H. Wang and H. Lühr A statistical study has been performed by using two years of DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) plasma observations to investigate the seasonal effect of SAPS (subauroral polarization stream) on the ion upflow in the duskside ionosphere of the Northern Hemisphere. There are obvious upflows occurring in the topside ionosphere around the SAPS region, exceeding 200 m s −1 at winter solstice, indicating an important relationship between SAPS and the local plasma upward motion. Both SAPS and ion upward velocities show similar seasonal variations, largest in winter and smallest in summer, irrespective of geomagnetic activity. A good correlation is found and a linear relationship is derived between SAPS and the ion upflow velocities. During December solstice the average upflow flux can reach about 2 × 10 8 cm −2 s −1 for more disturbed periods, which is comparable to the typical upflow flux in the dayside cusp region. The depression of the ion temperatures around the peak SAPS region can be understood in terms of the adiabatic cooling. The hot ion cools down when expanding into the low ion concentration region. The electron temperature elevates around the SAPS region because of the reduced Coulomb cooling in the low ion density region. Both the changes of ion and electron temperatures are larger in winter than in summer, however, for Kp 〈 4 the electron temperatures are almost seasonably independent. The present work highlights the important role of the SAPS-related frictional heating at mid-latitudes on the local formation of the strong upward flow, which might provide a direct ionospheric ion source for the ring current and plasmasphere in the duskside sector.

Description: Magnetic field generation in a jet-sheath plasma via the kinetic Kelvin-Helmholtz instability Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1535-1541, 2013 Author(s): K.-I. Nishikawa, P. Hardee, B. Zhang, I. Duţan, M. Medvedev, E. J. Choi, K. W. Min, J. Niemiec, Y. Mizuno, A. Nordlund, J. T. Frederiksen, H. Sol, M. Pohl, and D. H. Hartmann We have investigated the generation of magnetic fields associated with velocity shear between an unmagnetized relativistic jet and an unmagnetized sheath plasma. We have examined the strong magnetic fields generated by kinetic shear (Kelvin–Helmholtz) instabilities. Compared to the previous studies using counter-streaming performed by Alves et al. (2012), the structure of the kinetic Kelvin–Helmholtz instability (KKHI) of our jet-sheath configuration is slightly different, even for the global evolution of the strong transverse magnetic field. In our simulations the major components of growing modes are the electric field E z , perpendicular to the flow boundary, and the magnetic field B y , transverse to the flow direction. After the B y component is excited, an induced electric field E x , parallel to the flow direction, becomes significant. However, other field components remain small. We find that the structure and growth rate of KKHI with mass ratios m i / m e = 1836 and m i / m e = 20 are similar. In our simulations saturation in the nonlinear stage is not as clear as in counter-streaming cases. The growth rate for a mildly-relativistic jet case (γ j = 1.5) is larger than for a relativistic jet case (γ j = 15).

Description: Ionospheric response to total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 in different Indian regions Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1549-1558, 2013 Author(s): S. Kumar, A. K. Singh, and R. P. Singh The variability of ionospheric response to the total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 has been studied analyzing the GPS data recorded at the four Indian low-latitude stations Varanasi (100% obscuration), Kanpur (95% obscuration), Hyderabad (84% obscuration) and Bangalore (72% obscuration). The retrieved ionospheric vertical total electron content (VTEC) shows a significant reduction (reflected by all PRNs (satellites) at all stations) with a maximum of 48% at Varanasi (PRN 14), which decreases to 30% at Bangalore (PRN 14). Data from PRN 31 show a maximum of 54% at Kanpur and 26% at Hyderabad. The maximum decrement in VTEC occurs some time (2–15 min) after the maximum obscuration. The reduction in VTEC compared to the quiet mean VTEC depends on latitude as well as longitude, which also depends on the location of the satellite with respect to the solar eclipse path. The amount of reduction in VTEC decreases as the present obscuration decreases, which is directly related to the electron production by the photoionization process. The analysis of electron density height profile derived from the COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere & Climate) satellite over the Indian region shows significant reduction from 100 km altitude up to 800 km altitude with a maximum of 48% at 360 km altitude. The oscillatory nature in total electron content data at all stations is observed with different wave periods lying between 40 and 120 min, which are attributed to gravity wave effects generated in the lower atmosphere during the total solar eclipse.

Description: Influence of management of variables, sampling zones and land units on LR analysis for landslide spatial prevision Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2209-2221, 2013 Author(s): R. Greco and M. Sorriso-Valvo Several authors, according to different methodological approaches, have employed logistic Regression (LR), a multivariate statistical analysis adopted to assess the spatial probability of landslide, even though its fundamental principles have remained unaltered. This study aims at assessing the influence of some of these methodological approaches on the performance of LR, through a series of sensitivity analyses developed over a test area of about 300 km 2 in Calabria (southern Italy). In particular, four types of sampling (1 – the whole study area; 2 – transects running parallel to the general slope direction of the study area with a total surface of about 1/3 of the whole study area; 3 – buffers surrounding the phenomena with a 1/1 ratio between the stable and the unstable area; 4 – buffers surrounding the phenomena with a 1/2 ratio between the stable and the unstable area), two variable coding modes (1 – grouped variables; 2 – binary variables), and two types of elementary land (1 – cells units; 2 – slope units) units have been tested. The obtained results must be considered as statistically relevant in all cases (Aroc values 〉 70%), thus confirming the soundness of the LR analysis which maintains high predictive capacities notwithstanding the features of input data. As for the area under investigation, the best performing methodological choices are the following: (i) transects produced the best results (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 93.4%; Aroc = 79.5%); (ii) as for sampling modalities, binary variables (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 98.3%; Aroc = 80.7%) provide better performance than ordinated variables; (iii) as for the choice of elementary land units, slope units (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 100%; Aroc = 84.2%) have obtained better results than cells matrix.

Description: Risk evolution: how can changes in the built environment influence the potential loss of natural hazards? Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2195-2207, 2013 Author(s): B. Schwendtner, M. Papathoma-Köhle, and T. Glade Alpine areas often suffer significant loss and damage due to a range of natural processes such as landslides, debris flows, snow avalanches or floods. Sealing of the soil surface, settling in endangered areas and enhanced human intervention in the natural settings, as well as socio-economic changes, increase the risk and susceptibility of built environments to natural hazards and the costs of the consequences in a spatio-temporal context. The present study examines the loss estimation of a particular debris flow event for different points in time. The event occurred in August 1987, affected the municipality Martell in South Tyrol, Italy, and resulted in a total cost of € 25 million. The approach presented in this paper focuses on the changes of the land use and settlement expansion in the area since 1954 and attempts to assess the monetary impact of a similar event, which could have happened before (1954, 1985) or following the actual event (1992, 1999, 2006). The method applied is based on the use of a vulnerability curve which was developed for the specific area, based on the documentation of the damage of the 1987 event. Based on this curve, a loss estimation was carried out in order to visualise the risk evolution in a period of 52 yr (1954 to 2006). The results show a significant increase in the extent of the built environment (number, size and value of buildings) which consequently reflect an increase of the potential overall loss through the years. The method can be used in order to assess the potential loss for future scenarios based on different spatial patterns of the built environment.

Description: Wind shear over the Nice Côte d'Azur airport: case studies Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2223-2238, 2013 Author(s): A. Boilley and J.-F. Mahfouf The Nice Côte d'Azur international airport is subject to horizontal low-level wind shears. Detecting and predicting these hazards is a major concern for aircraft security. A measurement campaign took place over the Nice airport in 2009 including 4 anemometers, 1 wind lidar and 1 wind profiler. Two wind shear events were observed during this measurement campaign. Numerical simulations were carried out with Meso-NH in a configuration compatible with near-real time applications to determine the ability of the numerical model to predict these events and to study the meteorological situations generating an horizontal wind shear. A comparison between numerical simulation and the observation dataset is conducted in this paper.

Description: Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2239-2251, 2013 Author(s): M. L. R. Liberato, J. G. Pinto, R. M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, and I. F. Trigo In winter of 2009–2010 south-western Europe was hit by several destructive windstorms. The most important was Xynthia (26–28 February 2010), which caused 64 reported casualties and was classified as the 2nd most expensive natural hazard event for 2010 in terms of economic losses. In this work we assess the synoptic evolution, dynamical characteristics and the main impacts of storm Xynthia, whose genesis, development and path were very uncommon. Wind speed gusts observed at more than 500 stations across Europe are evaluated as well as the wind gust field obtained with a regional climate model simulation for the entire North Atlantic and European area. Storm Xynthia was first identified on 25 February around 30° N, 50° W over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Its genesis occurred on a region characterized by warm and moist air under the influence of a strong upper level wave embedded in the westerlies. Xynthia followed an unusual SW–NE path towards Iberia, France and central Europe. The role of moist air masses on the explosive development of Xynthia is analysed by considering the evaporative sources. A lagrangian model is used to identify the moisture sources, sinks and moisture transport associated with the cyclone during its development phase. The main supply of moisture is located over an elongated region of the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean with anomalously high SST, confirming that the explosive development of storm Xynthia had a significant contribution from the subtropics.

Description: Seismic behavior of buried pipelines constructed by design criteria and construction specifications of both Korea and the US Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2271-2278, 2013 Author(s): S.-S. Jeon Earthquake loss estimation systems in the US, for example HAZUS (Hazard in US), have been established based on sufficient damage records for the purpose of prevention and efficient response to earthquake hazards; however, in Korea, insufficient data sets of earthquakes and damage records are currently available. In this study, the earthquake damages to pipelines in Korea using the pipeline repair rate (RR) recommended in HAZUS was reevaluated with the degree of confidence when RR is used without modification for the damage estimation of pipelines in Korea. The numerical analyses using a commercial finite element model, ABAQUS, were carried out to compare stresses and strains mobilized in both brittle and ductile pipelines constructed by the design criteria and construction specifications of both Korea and the US. These pipelines were embedded in dense sand overlying three different in situ soils (clay, sand, and gravel) subjected to earthquake excitations with peak ground accelerations (PGAs) of 0.2 to 1.2 g and 1994 Northridge and 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake loadings. The numerical results show that differences in the stress and strain rates are less than 10%. This implies that RR in HAZUS can be used for earthquake damage estimation of pipelines with a 90% confidence level in Korea.

Description: Seismic zones for Azores based on statistical criteria Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2337-2351, 2013 Author(s): M. C. M. Rodrigues and C. S. Oliveira The objective of this paper is to define seismic zones in the Azores based on statistical criteria. These seismic zones will likely be used in seismic simulations of occurrences in the Azores Archipelago. The data used in this work cover the time period from 1915 to 2011. The Azores region was divided into 1° × 1° area units, for which the seismicity and the maximum magnitudes of events were calculated. The seismicity, the largest earthquakes recorded and the geological characteristics of the region were used to group these area units because similar seismic zones must delineate areas with homogeneous seismic characteristics. We have identified seven seismic zones. To verify that the defined areas differ statistically, we considered the following dissimilarity measures (variables): time, size and seismic conditions – the number of seismic events with specific characteristics. Statistical tests, particularly goodness-of-fit tests, allowed us to conclude that, considering these three variables, the seven earthquake zones defined here are statistically distinct.

Description: Sub-ionospheric very low frequency perturbations associated with the 12 May 2008 M = 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2331-2336, 2013 Author(s): A. K. Maurya, R. Singh, B. Veenadhari, S. Kumar, and A. K. Singh The present study reports the VLF (very low frequency) sub-ionospheric perturbations observed on transmitter JJI (22.1 kHz), Japan, received at the Indian low-latitude station, Allahabad ( geographic lat. 25.41° N, long 81.93° E), due to Wenchuan earthquake (EQ) that occurred on 12 May 2008 with the magnitude 7.9 and at the depth of 19 km in Sichuan province of Southwest China, located at 31.0° N, 103.4° E. The nighttime amplitude fluctuation analysis gives a significant increase in fluctuation and dispersion two days before EQ, when it crosses 2σ criterion. However, there was no significant change observed in the amplitude trend. The diurnal amplitude variation shows a significant increase in the amplitude of JJI signal on 11 and 12 May 2008. The gravity wave channel and changes in the electric field associated with this EQ seem to be the potential factors of the observed nighttime amplitude fluctuation, dispersion, and significant increase in the signal strength.

Description: Application of nonlinear autoregressive moving average exogenous input models to geospace: advances in understanding and space weather forecasts Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1579-1589, 2013 Author(s): R. J. Boynton, M. A. Balikhin, S. A. Billings, and O. A. Amariutei The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) system identification technique is applied to various aspects of the magnetospheres dynamics. It is shown, from an example system, how the inputs to a system can be found from the error reduction ratio (ERR) analysis, a key concept of the NARMAX approach. The application of the NARMAX approach to the Dst (disturbance storm time) index and the electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) are reviewed, revealing new insight into the physics of the system. The review of studies into the Dst index illustrate how the NARMAX approach is able to find a coupling function for the Dst index from data, which was then analytically justified from first principles. While the review of the electron flux demonstrates how NARMAX is able to reveal new insight into the physics of the acceleration and loss processes within the radiation belt.

Description: Support vector machines for TEC seismo-ionospheric anomalies detection Annales Geophysicae, 31, 173-186, 2013 Author(s): M. Akhoondzadeh Using time series prediction methods, it is possible to pursue the behaviors of earthquake precursors in the future and to announce early warnings when the differences between the predicted value and the observed value exceed the predefined threshold value. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are widely used due to their many advantages for classification and regression tasks. This study is concerned with investigating the Total Electron Content (TEC) time series by using a SVM to detect seismo-ionospheric anomalous variations induced by the three powerful earthquakes of Tohoku (11 March 2011), Haiti (12 January 2010) and Samoa (29 September 2009). The duration of TEC time series dataset is 49, 46 and 71 days, for Tohoku, Haiti and Samoa earthquakes, respectively, with each at time resolution of 2 h. In the case of Tohoku earthquake, the results show that the difference between the predicted value obtained from the SVM method and the observed value reaches the maximum value (i.e., 129.31 TECU) at earthquake time in a period of high geomagnetic activities. The SVM method detected a considerable number of anomalous occurrences 1 and 2 days prior to the Haiti earthquake and also 1 and 5 days before the Samoa earthquake in a period of low geomagnetic activities. In order to show that the method is acting sensibly with regard to the results extracted during nonevent and event TEC data, i.e., to perform some null-hypothesis tests in which the methods would also be calibrated, the same period of data from the previous year of the Samoa earthquake date has been taken into the account. Further to this, in this study, the detected TEC anomalies using the SVM method were compared to the previous results (Akhoondzadeh and Saradjian, 2011; Akhoondzadeh, 2012) obtained from the mean, median, wavelet and Kalman filter methods. The SVM detected anomalies are similar to those detected using the previous methods. It can be concluded that SVM can be a suitable learning method to detect the novelty changes of a nonlinear time series such as variations of earthquake precursors.

Description: A survey of strong high-frequency sea level oscillations along the US East Coast between 2006 and 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 473-482, 2013 Author(s): S. Pasquet, I. Vilibić, and J. Šepić A systematic survey of high-frequency sea level oscillations (

Description: A fuzzy decision making system for building damage map creation using high resolution satellite imagery Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 455-472, 2013 Author(s): H. Rastiveis, F. Samadzadegan, and P. Reinartz Recent studies have shown high resolution satellite imagery to be a powerful data source for post-earthquake damage assessment of buildings. Manual interpretation of these images, while being a reliable method for finding damaged buildings, is a subjective and time-consuming endeavor, rendering it unviable at times of emergency. The present research, proposes a new state-of-the-art method for automatic damage assessment of buildings using high resolution satellite imagery. In this method, at the first step a set of pre-processing algorithms are performed on the images. Then, extracting a candidate building from both pre- and post-event images, the intact roof part after an earthquake is found. Afterwards, by considering the shape and other structural properties of this roof part with its pre-event condition in a fuzzy inference system, the rate of damage for each candidate building is estimated. The results obtained from evaluation of this algorithm using QuickBird images of the December 2003 Bam, Iran, earthquake prove the ability of this method for post-earthquake damage assessment of buildings.

Description: 19 May 2011 Kütahya – Simav earthquake and evaluation of existing sample RC buildings according to the TEC-2007 criteria Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 505-522, 2013 Author(s): M. H. Arslan, M. Olgun, M. A. Köroğlu, I. H. Erkan, A. Köken, and O. Tan This study examines the damage caused to reinforced concrete structures by the 2011 earthquake that occurred in Simav, Turkey. The study briefly reports on post-earthquake field observations, tectonic characteristics of the earthquake area, geotechnical characteristics of the field, and seismic characteristics of the earthquake. The main part of the study comprises a field study, material experiments, and performance analyses of two reinforced concrete buildings that survived the earthquake with medium level damage. The building performance was calculated and assessed according to the Turkish Earthquake Code requirements for existing building stock, and recommendations were made based on the findings.

Description: Tsunami damping by mangrove forest: a laboratory study using parameterized trees Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 483-503, 2013 Author(s): A. Strusińska-Correia, S. Husrin, and H. Oumeraci Tsunami attenuation by coastal vegetation was examined under laboratory conditions for mature mangroves Rhizophora sp. The developed novel tree parameterization concept, accounting for both bio-mechanical and structural tree properties, allowed to substitute the complex tree structure by a simplified tree model of identical hydraulic resistance. The most representative parameterized mangrove model was selected among the tested models with different frontal area and root density, based on hydraulic test results. The selected parameterized tree models were arranged in a forest model of different width and further tested systematically under varying incident tsunami conditions (solitary waves and tsunami bores). The damping performance of the forest models under these two flow regimes was compared in terms of wave height and force envelopes, wave transmission coefficient as well as drag and inertia coefficients. Unlike the previous studies, the results indicate a significant contribution of the foreshore topography to solitary wave energy reduction through wave breaking in comparison to that attributed to the forest itself. A similar rate of tsunami transmission (ca. 20%) was achieved for both flow conditions (solitary waves and tsunami bores) and the widest forest (75 m in prototype) investigated. Drag coefficient C D attributed to the solitary waves tends to be constant ( C D = 1.5) over the investigated range of the Reynolds number.

Description: Magnetosheath dynamic pressure enhancements: occurrence and typical properties Annales Geophysicae, 31, 319-331, 2013 Author(s): M. O. Archer and T. S. Horbury The first comprehensive statistical study of large-amplitude (〉 100%) transient enhancements of the magnetosheath dynamic pressure reveals events of up to ~ 15 times the ambient dynamic pressure with durations up to 3 min and an average duration of around 30 s, predominantly downstream of the quasi-parallel shock. The dynamic pressure transients are most often dominated by velocity increases along with a small fractional increase in the density, though the velocity is generally only deflected by a few degrees. Superposed wavelet transforms of the magnetic field show that, whilst most enhancements exhibit changes in the magnetosheath magnetic field, the majority are not associated with changes in the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). However, there is a minority of enhancements that do appear to be associated with solar wind discontinuities which cannot be explained simply by random events. In general, it is found that during periods of magnetosheath dynamic pressure enhancements the IMF is steadier than usual. This suggests that a stable foreshock and hence foreshock structures or processes may be important in the generation of the majority of magnetosheath dynamic pressure enhancements.

Description: Response of polar mesosphere summer echoes to geomagnetic disturbances in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres: the importance of nitric oxide Annales Geophysicae, 31, 333-347, 2013 Author(s): S. Kirkwood, E. Belova, P. Dalin, M. Mihalikova, D. Mikhaylova, D. Murtagh, H. Nilsson, K. Satheesan, J. Urban, and I. Wolf The relationship between polar mesosphere summer echoes (PMSE) and geomagnetic disturbances (represented by magnetic K indices) is examined. Calibrated PMSE reflectivities for the period May 2006–February 2012 are used from two 52.0/54.5 MHz radars located in Arctic Sweden (68° N, geomagnetic latitude 65°) and at two different sites in Queen Maud Land, Antarctica (73°/72° S, geomagnetic latitudes 62°/63°). In both the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) there is a strong increase in mean PMSE reflectivity between quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Mean volume reflectivities are slightly lower at the SH locations compared to the NH, but the position of the peak in the lognormal distribution of PMSE reflectivities is close to the same at both NH and SH locations, and varies only slightly with magnetic disturbance level. Differences between the sites, and between geomagnetic disturbance levels, are primarily due to differences in the high-reflectivity tail of the distribution. PMSE occurrence rates are essentially the same at both NH and SH locations during most of the PMSE season when a sufficiently low detection threshold is used so that the peak in the lognormal distribution is included. When the local-time dependence of the PMSE response to geomagnetic disturbance level is considered, the response in the NH is found to be immediate at most local times, but delayed by several hours in the afternoon sector and absent in the early evening. At the SH sites, at lower magnetic latitude, there is a delayed response (by several hours) at almost all local times. At the NH (auroral zone) site, the dependence on magnetic disturbance is highest during evening-to-morning hours. At the SH (sub-auroral) sites the response to magnetic disturbance is weaker but persists throughout the day. While the immediate response to magnetic activity can be qualitatively explained by changes in electron density resulting from energetic particle precipitation, the delayed response can largely be explained by changes in nitric oxide concentrations. Observations of nitric oxide concentration at PMSE heights by the Odin satellite support this hypothesis. Sensitivity to geomagnetic disturbances, including nitric oxide produced during these disturbances, can explain previously reported differences between sites in the auroral zone and those at higher or lower magnetic latitudes. The several-day lifetime of nitric oxide can also explain earlier reported discrepancies between high correlations for average conditions (year-by-year PMSE reflectivities and K indices) and low correlations for minute-to-day timescales.

Description: Observations of poleward-propagating large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances in southern China Annales Geophysicae, 31, 377-385, 2013 Author(s): F. Ding, W. Wan, B. Ning, B. Zhao, Q. Li, Y. Wang, L. Hu, R. Zhang, and B. Xiong We report here on two cases of poleward-propagating large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs) in China during a medium-scale storm between 27 May and 1 June 2011. The observations were conducted by making use of the Global Positioning System network and ionosondes in China and Southeast Asia. One northeastward-propagating LSTID occurred on the morning of 30 May, while the other was observed during the nighttime of 1 June. Both poleward-traveling LSTIDs occurred during the storm's recovery phase in southern China's low-latitude region (geomagnetic latitude ~ 7.3–24° N) and experienced severe dissipation during their propagation from south to north. Although the initial relative amplitude of the nighttime LSTID was ~ 60% larger than that of the morning event, the nighttime event dissipated more quickly than the morning event because of a strong nighttime enhancement in background total electronic content (TEC) during storm time, which led to strong ion-drag dissipation during the evening. The poleward-propagating LSTIDs exhibit a narrower latitudinal range, a smaller amplitude, and a slightly higher elevation compared with the equatorward-moving LSTIDs observed in the same region. Given these features, the poleward-propagating LSTIDs were likely excited by some local source near southern China. Excitation of secondary LSTIDs during the dissipation of some primary medium-scale disturbances from the lower atmosphere is a possible mechanism.

Description: A new method for solving the MHD equations in the magnetosheath Annales Geophysicae, 31, 419-437, 2013 Author(s): C. Nabert, K.-H. Glassmeier, and F. Plaschke We present a new analytical method to derive steady-state magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solutions of the magnetosheath in different levels of approximation. With this method, we calculate the magnetosheath's density, velocity, and magnetic field distribution as well as its geometry. Thereby, the solution depends on the geomagnetic dipole moment and solar wind conditions only. To simplify the representation, we restrict our model to northward IMF with the solar wind flow along the stagnation streamline. The sheath's geometry, with its boundaries, bow shock and magnetopause, is determined self-consistently. Our model is stationary and time relaxation has not to be considered as in global MHD simulations. Our method uses series expansion to transfer the MHD equations into a new set of ordinary differential equations. The number of equations is related to the level of approximation considered including different physical processes. These equations can be solved numerically; however, an analytical approach for the lowest-order approximation is also presented. This yields explicit expressions, not only for the flow and field variations but also for the magnetosheath thickness, depending on the solar wind parameters. Results are compared to THEMIS data and offer a detailed explanation of, e.g., the pile-up process and the corresponding plasma depletion layer, the bow shock and magnetopause geometry, the magnetosheath thickness, and the flow deceleration.

Description: Investigation of a mesospheric bore event over northern China Annales Geophysicae, 31, 409-418, 2013 Author(s): Q. Li, J. Xu, J. Yue, X. Liu, W. Yuan, B. Ning, S. Guan, and J. P. Younger A mesospheric bore event was observed using an OH all-sky airglow imager (ASAI) at Xinglong (40.2° N, 117.4° E), in northern China, on the night of 8–9 January 2011. Simultaneous observations by a Doppler meteor radar, a broadband sodium lidar, and TIMED/SABER OH intensity and temperature measurements are used to investigate the characteristics and environment of the bore propagation and the possible relations with the Na density perturbations. The bore propagated from northeast to southwest and divided the sky into bright and dark halves. The calculations show that the bore has an average phase velocity of 68 m s −1 . The crests following the bore have a horizontal wavelength of ~ 22 km. These parameters are consistent with the hydraulic jump theory proposed by Dewan and Picard, as well as the previous bore reports. Simultaneous wind measurements from the Doppler meteor radar at Shisanling (40.3° N, 116.2° E) and temperature data from SABER on board the TIMED satellite are used to characterize the propagating environment of the bore. The result shows that a thermal-Doppler duct exists near the OH layer that supports the horizontal propagation of the bore. Simultaneous Na lidar observations at Yanqing (40.4° N, 116.0° E) suggest that there is a downward displacement of Na density during the passage of the mesospheric bore event.

Description: Comparison between different approaches to modeling shallow landslide susceptibility: a case history in Oltrepo Pavese, Northern Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 559-573, 2013 Author(s): D. Zizioli, C. Meisina, R. Valentino, and L. Montrasio On the 27 and 28 April 2009, the area of Oltrepo Pavese in northern Italy was affected by a very intense rainfall event that caused a great number of shallow landslides. These instabilities occurred on slopes covered by vineyards or recently formed woodlands and caused damage to many roads and one human loss. Based on aerial photographs taken immediately after the event and field surveys, more than 1600 landslides were detected. After acquiring topographical data, geotechnical properties of the soils and land use, susceptibility analysis on a territorial scale was carried out. In particular, different physically based models were applied to two contiguous sites with the same geological context but different typologies and sizes of shallow landslides. This paper presents the comparison between the ex-post results obtained from the different approaches. On the basis of the observed landslide localizations, the accuracy of the different models was evaluated, and the significant results are highlighted.

Description: Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 545-557, 2013 Author(s): E. Vanem and O. N. Breivik Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.

Description: Real-time flood forecasting coupling different postprocessing techniques of precipitation forecast ensembles with a distributed hydrological model. The case study of may 2008 flood in western Piemonte, Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 211-220, 2013 Author(s): D. Cane, S. Ghigo, D. Rabuffetti, and M. Milelli In this work, we compare the performance of an hydrological model when driven by probabilistic rain forecast derived from two different post-processing techniques. The region of interest is Piemonte, northwestern Italy, a complex orography area close to the Mediterranean Sea where the forecast are often a challenge for weather models. The May 2008 flood is here used as a case study, and the very dense weather station network allows us for a very good description of the event and initialization of the hydrological model. The ensemble probabilistic forecasts of the rainfall fields are obtained with the Bayesian model averaging, with the classical poor man ensemble approach and with a new technique, the Multimodel SuperEnsemble Dressing. In this case study, the meteo-hydrological chain initialized with the Multimodel SuperEnsemble Dressing is able to provide more valuable discharge ranges with respect to the one initialized with Bayesian model averaging multi-model.

Description: The ultra-fast Kelvin waves in the equatorial ionosphere: observations and modeling Annales Geophysicae, 31, 209-215, 2013 Author(s): A. N. Onohara, I. S. Batista, and H. Takahashi The main purpose of this study is to investigate the vertical coupling between the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region and the ionosphere through ultra-fast Kelvin (UFK) waves in the equatorial atmosphere. The effect of UFK waves on the ionospheric parameters was estimated using an ionospheric model which calculates electrostatic potential in the E-region and solves coupled electrodynamics of the equatorial ionosphere in the E- and F-regions. The UFK wave was observed in the South American equatorial region during February–March 2005. The MLT wind data obtained by meteor radar at São João do Cariri (7.5° S, 37.5° W) and ionospheric F-layer bottom height ( h 'F) observed by ionosonde at Fortaleza (3.9° S; 38.4° W) were used in order to calculate the wave characteristics and amplitude of oscillation. The simulation results showed that the combined electrodynamical effect of tides and UFK waves in the MLT region could explain the oscillations observed in the ionospheric parameters.

Description: Payload charging events in the mesosphere and their impact on Langmuir type electric probes Annales Geophysicae, 31, 187-196, 2013 Author(s): T. A. Bekkeng, A. Barjatya, U.-P. Hoppe, A. Pedersen, J. I. Moen, M. Friedrich, and M. Rapp Three sounding rockets were launched from Andøya Rocket Range in the ECOMA campaign in December 2010. The aim was to study the evolution of meteoric smoke particles during a major meteor shower. Of the various instruments onboard the rocket payload, this paper presents the data from a multi-Needle Langmuir Probe (m-NLP) and a charged dust detector. The payload floating potential, as observed using the m-NLP instrument, shows charging events on two of the three flights. These charging events cannot be explained using a simple charging model, and have implications towards the use of fixed bias Langmuir probes on sounding rockets investigating mesospheric altitudes. We show that for a reliable use of a single fixed bias Langmuir probe as a high spatial resolution relative density measurement, each payload should also carry an additional instrument to measure payload floating potential, and an instrument that is immune to spacecraft charging and measures absolute plasma density.

Description: Technical Note: Use of remote sensing for landslide studies in Europe Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 299-309, 2013 Author(s): V. Tofani, S. Segoni, A. Agostini, F. Catani, and N. Casagli Within the framework of FP7, an EU-funded SafeLand project, a questionnaire was prepared to collect information about the use of remote sensing for landslide study and to evaluate its actual application in landslide detection, mapping and monitoring. The questionnaire was designed using a Google form and was disseminated among end-users and researchers involved in landslide studies in Europe. In total, 49 answers from 17 different European countries were collected. The outcomes showed that landslide detection and mapping is mainly performed with aerial photos, often associated with optical and radar imagery. Concerning landslide monitoring, satellite radars prevail over the other types of data. Remote sensing is mainly used for detection/mapping and monitoring of slides, flows and lateral spreads with a preferably large scale of analysis (1:5000–1:25 000). All the compilers integrate remote sensing data with other thematic data, mainly geological maps, landslide inventory maps and DTMs and derived maps. According to the research and working experience of the compilers, remote sensing is generally considered to have a medium effectiveness/reliability for landslide studies. The results of the questionnaire can contribute to an overall sketch of the use of remote sensing in current landslide studies and show that remote sensing can be considered a powerful and well-established instrument for landslide mapping, monitoring and hazard analysis.

Description: Seismic risk assessment of architectural heritages in Gyeongju considering local site effects Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 251-262, 2013 Author(s): H.-J. Park, D.-S. Kim, and D.-M. Kim A seismic risk assessment is conducted for cultural heritage sites in Gyeongju, the capital of Korea's ancient Silla Kingdom. Gyeongju, home to UNESCO World Heritage sites, contains remarkable artifacts of Korean Buddhist art. An extensive geotechnical survey including a series of in situ tests is presented, providing pertinent soil profiles for site response analyses on thirty cultural heritage sites. After the shear wave velocity profiles and dynamic material properties were obtained, site response analyses were carried out at each historical site and the amplification characteristics, site period, and response spectrum of the site were determined for the earthquake levels of 2400 yr and 1000 yr return periods based on the Korean seismic hazard map. Response spectrum and corresponding site coefficients obtained from site response analyses considering geologic conditions differ significantly from the current Korean seismic code. This study confirms the importance of site-specific ground response analyses considering local geological conditions. Results are given in the form of the spatial distribution of bedrock depth, site period, and site amplification coefficients, which are particularly valuable in the context of a seismic vulnerability study. This study presents the potential amplification of hazard maps and provides primary data on the seismic risk assessment of each cultural heritage.

Description: Simulating future precipitation extremes in a complex Alpine catchment Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 263-277, 2013 Author(s): C. Dobler, G. Bürger, and J. Stötter The objectives of the present investigation are (i) to study the effects of climate change on precipitation extremes and (ii) to assess the uncertainty in the climate projections. The investigation is performed on the Lech catchment, located in the Northern Limestone Alps. In order to estimate the uncertainty in the climate projections, two statistical downscaling models as well as a number of global and regional climate models were considered. The downscaling models applied are the Expanded Downscaling (XDS) technique and the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG). The XDS model, which is driven by analyzed or simulated large-scale synoptic fields, has been calibrated using ECMWF-interim reanalysis data and local station data. LARS-WG is controlled through stochastic parameters representing local precipitation variability, which are calibrated from station data only. Changes in precipitation mean and variability as simulated by climate models were then used to perturb the parameters of LARS-WG in order to generate climate change scenarios. In our study we use climate simulations based on the A1B emission scenario. The results show that both downscaling models perform well in reproducing observed precipitation extremes. In general, the results demonstrate that the projections are highly variable. The choice of both the GCM and the downscaling method are found to be essential sources of uncertainty. For spring and autumn, a slight tendency toward an increase in the intensity of future precipitation extremes is obtained, as a number of simulations show statistically significant increases in the intensity of 90th and 99th percentiles of precipitation on wet days as well as the 5- and 20-yr return values.

Description: Fuzzy approach to analysis of flood risk based on variable fuzzy sets and improved information diffusion methods Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 239-249, 2013 Author(s): Q. Li The predictive analysis of natural disasters and their consequences is challenging because of uncertainties and incomplete data. The present article studies the use of variable fuzzy sets (VFS) and improved information diffusion method (IIDM) to construct a composite method. The proposed method aims to integrate multiple factors and quantification of uncertainties within a consistent system for catastrophic risk assessment. The fuzzy methodology is proposed in the area of flood disaster risk assessment to improve probability estimation. The purpose of the current study is to establish a fuzzy model to evaluate flood risk with incomplete data sets. The results of the example indicate that the methodology is effective and practical; thus, it has the potential to forecast the flood risk in flood risk management.

Description: Review of unprecedented ULF electromagnetic anomalous emissions possibly related to the Wenchuan M S = 8.0 earthquake, on 12 May 2008 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 279-286, 2013 Author(s): M. Li, J. Lu, M. Parrot, H. Tan, Y. Chang, X. Zhang, and Y. Wang This work presents ground based ultra low frequency (ULF) electromagnetic field measurements in the frequency range 0.1–10 Hz from January 2007 to December 2008. In this time period a strong earthquake series hits the Wenchuan region with a main shock of magnitude M S = 8.0 on 12 May 2008. The Hebei ULF electromagnetic observation network includes eight observation stations in north China and the observation system named E-EM is employed to record the electric potential difference between two electrodes with an analog automatic real-time continuous pen recorder. First, weak electric signals appeared on 11 October 2007 at Ningjin station, most of which are with relative long periods ~0.4–3 s and unequal amplitudes ~0.5–20 mm. Then, similar signals appeared at Gaobeidian station at the end of October. Abnormal behavior with various time intervals appeared randomly and not every day. At the beginning of April 2008, one and a half months before the Wenchuan M S = 8.0 earthquake, the anomalies were gradually subject to an intensive increase mainly in Gaobeidian SN direction and Ningjin EW direction. The abnormal behavior appeared almost every day and the amplitudes of electric signals, with short periods of ~0.1–0.3 s, enhanced to ~3–30 mm. Qingxian station started to record marginally high frequency signals in SN and EW components in the middle of April. On 9 May, 3 days before the main shock, the amplitude of high frequency information increased sharply at the same time in two components at Gaobeidian station and the maximum amplitude was up to 70 mm, i.e. 1.3 mV m −1 for the electric field. This situation did not stop until 17 May, 5 days after the main event. However, this kind of climax phenomena did not happen at Ningjin station and Qingxian station. Then weak anomalous information lasted about four months again, and strong signals appeared again for a short time before several powerful aftershocks. It is the first time that an abnormity with so large an amplitude and so long a duration time in the observation history of this network though several strong earthquakes were recorded. Furthermore, no obvious interferences have been found during this period. So this event is possibly related to this shock although all these three stations are more than 1300 km away from the Wenchuan earthquake epicenter.

Description: Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 339-360, 2013 Author(s): J.-C. Thouret, G. Enjolras, K. Martelli, O. Santoni, J. A. Luque, M. Nagata, A. Arguedas, and L. Macedo Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash flood and lahar hazards, which are localized along the usually dry (except for the rainy season) ravines and channels of the Río Chili and its tributaries that dissect the city. Our risk-evaluation study is based mostly on field surveys and mapping, but we also took into account quality and structural integrity of buildings, available socio-economic data, and information gained from interviews with risk-managers officials. In our evaluation of the vulnerability of various parts of the city, in addition to geological and physical parameters, we also took into account selected socio-economic parameters, such as the educational and poverty level of the population, unemployment figures, and population density. In addition, we utilized a criterion of the "isolation factor", based on distances to access emergency resources (hospitals, shelters or safety areas, and water) in each city block. By combining the hazard, vulnerability and exposure criteria, we produced detailed risk-zone maps at the city-block scale, covering the whole city of Arequipa and adjacent suburbs. Not surprisingly, these maps show that the areas at high risk coincide with blocks or districts with populations at low socio-economic levels. Inhabitants at greatest risk are the poor recent immigrants from rural areas who live in unauthorized settlements in the outskirts of the city in the upper parts of the valleys. Such settlements are highly exposed to natural hazards and have little access to vital resources. Our study provides good rationale for the risk zoning of the city, which in turn may be used as an educational tool for better understanding the potential effects of natural hazards and the exposure of the population residing in and around Arequipa. We hope that our work and the risk-zonation maps will provide the impetus and basis for risk-management authorities of the Municipality and the regional government of Arequipa to enforce existing regulations in building in hazardous zones and to adopt an effective long-term strategy to reduce risks from lahar, flash flood, and other natural hazards.

Description: Electric potential differences across auroral generator interfaces Annales Geophysicae, 31, 251-261, 2013 Author(s): J. De Keyser and M. Echim Strong localized high-altitude auroral electric fields, such as those observed by Cluster, are often associated with magnetospheric interfaces. The type of high-altitude electric field profile (monopolar, bipolar, or more complicated) depends on the properties of the plasmas on either side of the interface, as well as on the total electric potential difference across the structure. The present paper explores the role of this cross-field electric potential difference in the situation where the interface is a tangential discontinuity. A self-consistent Vlasov description is used to determine the equilibrium configuration for different values of the transverse potential difference. A major observation is that there exist limits to the potential difference, beyond which no equilibrium configuration of the interface can be sustained. It is further demonstrated how the plasma densities and temperatures affect the type of electric field profile in the transition, with monopolar electric fields appearing primarily when the temperature contrast is large. These findings strongly support the observed association of monopolar fields with the plasma sheet boundary. The role of shear flow tangent to the interface is also examined.

Description: Variability of ionospheric TEC during solar and geomagnetic minima (2008 and 2009): external high speed stream drivers Annales Geophysicae, 31, 263-276, 2013 Author(s): O. P. Verkhoglyadova, B. T. Tsurutani, A. J. Mannucci, M. G. Mlynczak, L. A. Hunt, and T. Runge We study solar wind–ionosphere coupling through the late declining phase/solar minimum and geomagnetic minimum phases during the last solar cycle (SC23) – 2008 and 2009. This interval was characterized by sequences of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs). The concomitant geomagnetic response was moderate geomagnetic storms and high-intensity, long-duration continuous auroral activity (HILDCAA) events. The JPL Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) software and the GPS total electron content (TEC) database were used to calculate the vertical TEC (VTEC) and estimate daily averaged values in separate latitude and local time ranges. Our results show distinct low- and mid-latitude VTEC responses to HSSs during this interval, with the low-latitude daytime daily averaged values increasing by up to 33 TECU (annual average of ~20 TECU) near local noon (12:00 to 14:00 LT) in 2008. In 2009 during the minimum geomagnetic activity (MGA) interval, the response to HSSs was a maximum of ~30 TECU increases with a slightly lower average value than in 2008. There was a weak nighttime ionospheric response to the HSSs. A well-studied solar cycle declining phase interval, 10–22 October 2003, was analyzed for comparative purposes, with daytime low-latitude VTEC peak values of up to ~58 TECU (event average of ~55 TECU). The ionospheric VTEC changes during 2008–2009 were similar but ~60% less intense on average. There is an evidence of correlations of filtered daily averaged VTEC data with Ap index and solar wind speed. We use the infrared NO and CO 2 emission data obtained with SABER on TIMED as a proxy for the radiation balance of the thermosphere. It is shown that infrared emissions increase during HSS events possibly due to increased energy input into the auroral region associated with HILDCAAs. The 2008–2009 HSS intervals were ~85% less intense than the 2003 early declining phase event, with annual averages of daily infrared NO emission power of ~ 3.3 × 10 10 W and 2.7 × 10 10 W in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The roles of disturbance dynamos caused by high-latitude winds (due to particle precipitation and Joule heating in the auroral zones) and of prompt penetrating electric fields (PPEFs) in the solar wind–ionosphere coupling during these intervals are discussed. A correlation between geoeffective interplanetary electric field components and HSS intervals is shown. Both PPEF and disturbance dynamo mechanisms could play important roles in solar wind–ionosphere coupling during prolonged (up to days) external driving within HILDCAA intervals.

Description: Analyzing resilience of urban networks: a preliminary step towards more flood resilient cities Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 221-230, 2013 Author(s): S. Lhomme, D. Serre, Y. Diab, and R. Laganier In Europe, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity. These circumstances require the management of flood risk by integrating new concepts like urban resilience. Nevertheless, urban resilience seems to have no accurate meanings. That is why researchers are primarily concerned with defining resilience. Nevertheless, focus on research object seems to be more important than focus on conceptual debate (Resilience of what? Rather than what is resilience?). Thus the methodology designed here is focused on urban considerations. In fact, a system approach emphasizes technical networks' importance concerning urban resilience. Principles and assumptions applied in this research finally lead to the analysis of how urban networks are able to face natural hazards. In this context, a Web-GIS has been developed for analyzing resistance capacity, absorption capacity and recovery capacity of different technical networks. A first application has been carried out on a French agglomeration in order to analyze road network absorption capacity. This application is very specific but, thanks to this example, it is already possible to highlight the methodology's usefulness.

Description: Effect of heterogeneities on evaluating earthquake triggering of volcanic eruptions Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 231-237, 2013 Author(s): J. Takekawa, H. Mikada, and T. Goto Recent researches have indicated coupling between volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Some of them calculated static stress transfer in subsurface induced by the occurrences of earthquakes. Most of their analyses ignored the spatial heterogeneity in subsurface, or only took into account the rigidity layering in the crust. On the other hand, a smaller scale heterogeneity of around hundreds of meters has been suggested by geophysical investigations. It is difficult to reflect that kind of heterogeneity in analysis models because accurate distributions of fluctuation are not well understood in many cases. Thus, the effect of the ignorance of the smaller scale heterogeneity on evaluating the earthquake triggering of volcanic eruptions is also not well understood. In the present study, we investigate the influence of the assumption of homogeneity on evaluating earthquake triggering of volcanic eruptions using finite element simulations. The crust is treated as a stochastic media with different heterogeneous parameters (correlation length and magnitude of velocity perturbation) in our simulations. We adopt exponential and von Karman functions as spatial auto-correlation functions (ACF). In all our simulation results, the ignorance of the smaller scale heterogeneity leads to underestimation of the failure pressure around a chamber wall, which relates to dyke initiation. The magnitude of the velocity perturbation has a larger effect on the tensile failure at the chamber wall than the difference of the ACF and the correlation length. The maximum effect on the failure pressure in all our simulations is about twice larger than that in the homogeneous case. This indicates that the estimation of the earthquake triggering due to static stress transfer should take account of the heterogeneity of around hundreds of meters.

Description: Modelling long-term fire occurrence factors in Spain by accounting for local variations with geographically weighted regression Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 311-327, 2013 Author(s): J. Martínez-Fernández, E. Chuvieco, and N. Koutsias Humans are responsible for most forest fires in Europe, but anthropogenic factors behind these events are still poorly understood. We tried to identify the driving factors of human-caused fire occurrence in Spain by applying two different statistical approaches. Firstly, assuming stationary processes for the whole country, we created models based on multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression to find factors associated with fire density and fire presence, respectively. Secondly, we used geographically weighted regression (GWR) to better understand and explore the local and regional variations of those factors behind human-caused fire occurrence. The number of human-caused fires occurring within a 25-yr period (1983–2007) was computed for each of the 7638 Spanish mainland municipalities, creating a binary variable (fire/no fire) to develop logistic models, and a continuous variable (fire density) to build standard linear regression models. A total of 383 657 fires were registered in the study dataset. The binary logistic model, which estimates the probability of having/not having a fire, successfully classified 76.4% of the total observations, while the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model explained 53% of the variation of the fire density patterns (adjusted R 2 = 0.53). Both approaches confirmed, in addition to forest and climatic variables, the importance of variables related with agrarian activities, land abandonment, rural population exodus and developmental processes as underlying factors of fire occurrence. For the GWR approach, the explanatory power of the GW linear model for fire density using an adaptive bandwidth increased from 53% to 67%, while for the GW logistic model the correctly classified observations improved only slightly, from 76.4% to 78.4%, but significantly according to the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AIC c ), from 3451.19 to 3321.19. The results from GWR indicated a significant spatial variation in the local parameter estimates for all the variables and an important reduction of the autocorrelation in the residuals of the GW linear model. Despite the fitting improvement of local models, GW regression, more than an alternative to "global" or traditional regression modelling, seems to be a valuable complement to explore the non-stationary relationships between the response variable and the explanatory variables. The synergy of global and local modelling provides insights into fire management and policy and helps further our understanding of the fire problem over large areas while at the same time recognizing its local character.

Description: Case study of stratospheric gravity waves of convective origin over Arctic Scandinavia – VHF radar observations and numerical modelling Annales Geophysicae, 31, 239-250, 2013 Author(s): A. Réchou, J. Arnault, P. Dalin, and S. Kirkwood Orography is a well-known source of gravity and inertia-gravity waves in the atmosphere. Other sources, such as convection, are also known to be potentially important but the large amplitude of orographic waves over Scandinavia has generally precluded the possibility to study such other sources experimentally in this region. In order to better understand the origin of stratospheric gravity waves observed by the VHF radar ESRAD (Esrange MST radar) over Kiruna, in Arctic Sweden (67.88° N, 21.10° E), observations have been compared to simulations made using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with and without the effects of orography and clouds. This case study concerns gravity waves observed from 00:00 UTC on 18 February to 12:00 UTC on 20 February 2007. We focus on the wave signatures in the static stability field and vertical wind deduced from the simulations and from the observations as these are the parameters which are provided by the observations with the best height coverage. As is common at this site, orographic gravity waves were produced over the Scandinavian mountains and observed by the radar. However, at the same time, southward propagation of fronts in the Barents Sea created short-period waves which propagated into the stratosphere and were transported, embedded in the cyclonic winds, over the radar site.

Description: Landslide susceptibility assessment by using a neuro-fuzzy model: a case study in the Rupestrian heritage rich area of Matera Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 395-407, 2013 Author(s): F. Sdao, D. S. Lioi, S. Pascale, D. Caniani, and I. M. Mancini The complete assessment of landslide susceptibility needs uniformly distributed detailed information on the territory. This information, which is related to the temporal occurrence of landslide phenomena and their causes, is often fragmented and heterogeneous. The present study evaluates the landslide susceptibility map of the Natural Archaeological Park of Matera (Southern Italy) (Sassi and area Rupestrian Churches sites). The assessment of the degree of "spatial hazard" or "susceptibility" was carried out by the spatial prediction regardless of the return time of the events. The evaluation model for the susceptibility presented in this paper is very focused on the use of innovative techniques of artificial intelligence such as Neural Network, Fuzzy Logic and Neuro-fuzzy Network. The method described in this paper is a novel technique based on a neuro-fuzzy system. It is able to train data like neural network and it is able to shape and control uncertain and complex systems like a fuzzy system. This methodology allows us to derive susceptibility maps of the study area. These data are obtained from thematic maps representing the parameters responsible for the instability of the slopes. The parameters used in the analysis are: plan curvature, elevation (DEM), angle and aspect of the slope, lithology, fracture density, kinematic hazard index of planar and wedge sliding and toppling. Moreover, this method is characterized by the network training which uses a training matrix, consisting of input and output training data , which determine the landslide susceptibility. The neuro-fuzzy method was integrated to a sensitivity analysis in order to overcome the uncertainty linked to the used membership functions. The method was compared to the landslide inventory map and was validated by applying three methods: a ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis, a confusion matrix and a SCAI method. The developed neuro-fuzzy method showed a good performance in the determination of the landslide susceptibility map.

Description: A digital social network for rapid collection of earthquake disaster information Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 385-394, 2013 Author(s): J. H. Xu, G. Z. Nie, and X. Xu Acquiring disaster information quickly after an earthquake is crucial for disaster and emergency rescue management. This study examines a digital social network – an earthquake disaster information reporting network – for rapid collection of earthquake disaster information. Based on the network, the disaster information rapid collection method is expounded in this paper. The structure and components of the reporting network are introduced. Then the work principles of the reporting network are discussed, in which the rapid collection of disaster information is realised by using Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) messages to report the disaster information and Geographic information system (GIS) to analyse and extract useful disaster information. This study introduces some key technologies for the work principles, including the methods of mass sending and receiving of SMS for disaster management, the reporting network grouping management method, brief disaster information codes, and the GIS modelling of the reporting network. Finally, a city earthquake disaster information quick reporting system is developed and with the support of this system the reporting network obtained good results in a real earthquake and earthquake drills. This method is a semi-real time disaster information collection method which extends current SMS based method and meets the need of small and some moderate earthquakes.

Description: Long-term trends in the ionospheric F2 region with different solar activity indices Annales Geophysicae, 31, 291-303, 2013 Author(s): J. Mielich and J. Bremer A new comprehensive data collection by Damboldt and Suessmann (2012a) with monthly fo F2 and M(3000)F2 median values is an excellent basis for the derivation of long-term trends in the ionospheric F2 region. Ionospheric trends have been derived only for stations with data series of at least 22 years (124 stations with fo F2 data and 113 stations with M(3000)F2 data) using a twofold regression analysis depending on solar and geomagnetic activity. Three main results have been derived: Firstly, it could be shown that the solar 10.7 cm radio flux F10.7 is a better index for the description of the solar activity than the relative solar sunspot number R as well as the solar EUV proxy E10.7. Secondly, the global mean fo F2 and hm F2 trends derived for the interval between 1948 and 2006 are in surprisingly good agreement with model calculations of an increasing atmospheric greenhouse effect (Rishbeth and Roble, 1992). Thirdly, during the years 2007 until 2009, the hm F2 values and to a smaller amount the fo F2 values strongly decrease. The reason for this effect is a reduction of the thermospheric density and ionization due to a markedly reduced solar EUV irradiation and extremely small geomagnetic activity during the solar cycle 23/24 minimum.

Description: Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management – Part 2: Application to Tangjiashan landslide dam failure Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 439-454, 2013 Author(s): M. Peng and L. M. Zhang Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was triggered by the M s = 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 in China, threatened 1.2 million people downstream of the dam. All people in Beichuan Town 3.5 km downstream of the dam and 197 thousand people in Mianyang City 85 km downstream of the dam were evacuated 10 days before the breaching of the dam. Making such an important decision under uncertainty was difficult. This paper applied a dynamic decision-making framework for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM) to help rational decision in the emergency management of the Tangjiashan landslide dam. Three stages are identified with different levels of hydrological, geological and social-economic information along the timeline of the landslide dam failure event. The probability of dam failure is taken as a time series. The dam breaching parameters are predicted with a set of empirical models in stage 1 when no soil property information is known, and a physical model in stages 2 and 3 when knowledge of soil properties has been obtained. The flood routing downstream of the dam in these three stages is analyzed to evaluate the population at risk (PAR). The flood consequences, including evacuation costs, flood damage and monetized loss of life, are evaluated as functions of warning time using a human risk analysis model based on Bayesian networks. Finally, dynamic decision analysis is conducted to find the optimal time to evacuate the population at risk with minimum total loss in each of these three stages.

Description: Simultaneous measurement of OI 557.7 nm, O 2 (0, 1) Atmospheric Band and OH (6, 2) Meinel Band nightglow at Kolhapur (17° N), India Annales Geophysicae, 31, 197-208, 2013 Author(s): N. Parihar, A. Taori, S. Gurubaran, and G. K. Mukherjee Near-simultaneous measurements of OI 557.7 nm, O 2 (0, 1) Atmospheric Band and OH (6, 2) Meinel Band nightglow were carried out at Kolhapur (17° N), India during February–March 2007. Atmospheric temperatures around 87 and 94 km were derived from the knowledge of intensity measurements of spectral features OH (6, 2) Meinel Band and O 2 Atmospheric Band, respectively. An account of the behaviour of derived temperatures has been presented. The nocturnal behaviour of OH and O 2 temperatures is governed by the waves of tidal origin, whereas the signatures of planetary wave-like oscillations is noted in the night-to-night variation of two temperatures. This is probably the first report of planetary waves observed in nightglow temperatures from the Indian subcontinent.

Description: Refilling process in the plasmasphere: a 3-D statistical characterization based on Cluster density observations Annales Geophysicae, 31, 217-237, 2013 Author(s): G. Lointier, F. Darrouzet, P. M. E. Décréau, X. Vallières, S. Kougblénou, J. G. Trotignon, and J.-L. Rauch The Cluster mission offers an excellent opportunity to investigate the evolution of the plasma population in a large part of the inner magnetosphere, explored near its orbit's perigee, over a complete solar cycle. The WHISPER sounder, on board each satellite of the mission, is particularly suitable to study the electron density in this region, between 0.2 and 80 cm −3 . Compiling WHISPER observations during 1339 perigee passes distributed over more than three years of the Cluster mission, we present first results of a statistical analysis dedicated to the study of the electron density morphology and dynamics along and across magnetic field lines between L = 2 and L = 10. In this study, we examine a specific topic: the refilling of the plasmasphere and trough regions during extended periods of quiet magnetic conditions. To do so, we survey the evolution of the ap index during the days preceding each perigee crossing and sort out electron density profiles along the orbit according to three classes, namely after respectively less than 2 days, between 2 and 4 days, and more than 4 days of quiet magnetic conditions (ap ≤ 15 nT) following an active episode (ap 〉 15 nT). This leads to three independent data subsets. Comparisons between density distributions in the 3-D plasmasphere and trough regions at the three stages of quiet magnetosphere provide novel views about the distribution of matter inside the inner magnetosphere during several days of low activity. Clear signatures of a refilling process inside an expended plasmasphere in formation are noted. A plasmapause-like boundary, at L ~ 6 for all MLT sectors, is formed after 3 to 4 days and expends somewhat further after that. In the outer part of the plasmasphere ( L ~ 8), latitudinal profiles of median density values vary essentially according to the MLT sector considered rather than according to the refilling duration. The shape of these density profiles indicates that magnetic flux tubes are not fully replenished after 6 days of quiet conditions. In addition, the outer plasmasphere in the night and dawn sectors (22:00 to 10:00 MLT range) maintains an overall clear deficit of ionospheric population, when compared to the situation in the noon and dusk sectors (10:00 to 22:00 MLT range).

Description: Reasons for large fluctuation of radon and CO 2 levels in a dead-end passage of a karst cave (Postojna Cave, Slovenia) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 287-297, 2013 Author(s): A. Gregorič, J. Vaupotič, and F. Gabrovšek Measurements of radon concentration were performed at three geomorphologically different locations in Postojna Cave, Slovenia. In the part of the cave open to visitors, annual average radon activity concentrations of 3255 ± 1190 Bq m −3 and 2315 ± 1019 Bq m −3 were found at the lowest point (LP) and in the Lepe jame (Beautiful Caves, BC), respectively. A much higher average of 25 020 ± 12 653 Bq m −3 was characteristic of the dead-end passage Pisani rov (Gaily Coloured Corridor, GC), in which CO 2 concentration also reached very high values of 4689 ± 294 ppm in summer. Seasonal variations of radon and CO 2 levels in the cave are governed by convective airflow, controlled mainly by the temperature difference between the cave and the outside atmosphere. The following additional sources of radon and CO 2 were considered: (i) flux of geogas from the Earth's crust through fractured rocks (radon and CO 2 source), (ii) clay sediments inside the passage (radon source) and (iii) the soil layer above the cave (radon and CO 2 source).

Description: Damages to unreinforced masonry buildings by the Van earthquakes of 23 October and 9 November 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 329-337, 2013 Author(s): Y. S. Tama, A. Solak, N. Çetinkaya, G. Şen, S. Yılmaz, and H. Kaplan Van, a city in Eastern Anatolian Turkey, was hit by two earthquakes with magnitudes of M w = 7.2 and M w = 5.6 in October and November 2011. Both earthquakes caused extensive damage to many buildings. Unreinforced masonry buildings, especially in rural areas, suffered from those earthquakes extensively as in many other cases observed in Turkey during other previous earthquakes. This paper presents a site survey of damaged masonry buildings. Reasons for the wide spread damages are discussed in the paper.

Description: Assessment of the warning system against floods on a rural area: the case of the lower Siret River (Romania) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 409-416, 2013 Author(s): F. Salit, L. Zaharia, and G. Beltrando The development of non-structural measures such as an early warning system, across the Europe, in flood risk management, requires a better understanding of the public involved and of the territory threatened. This paper aims to conduct an assessment of early warning and information to people with an analysis of the population's behaviour, presented in a form of an event tree. The objective is to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the warning system during a deadly flood in the lower Siret River (Romania) in 2005 and to demonstrate that each warning system has to be adapted to the territory in which it is effective. The behavioural model aims to determine to what extent the warning system can be improved but also to suggest ways to adapt risk education to the study area.

Description: Climate-induced landslide reactivation at the edge of the Most Basin (Czech Republic) – progress towards better landslide prediction Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 361-374, 2013 Author(s): J. Burda, F. Hartvich, J. Valenta, V. Smítka, and J. Rybář The catastrophic landslide at Eisenberg in North Bohemia was reactivated during January 2011. This study integrates a range of geoscientific evidence in order to constrain the spatial and temporal development of this reactivation. It has investigated long-term geodetic measurements to assess the morphological development of the site over the last two decades. There is evidence to suggest that, over this period, the site had been subjected to progressive deformation caused by the collapse of an old mine gallery. However, climatic data show that the reactivation itself was triggered by a dramatic rise in the water table induced by rapid snowmelt during a period of winter warming. Furthermore, geomorphological mapping has been used to characterise the morphology of the reactivated landslide and geophysical profiling has been used to analyse its internal structure. The results show that fissures are continuing to develop above the reactivated landslide scarp while highly saturated stiff-fissured claystones provide an incipient slide plane. The application of laser scanning has shown minimal evidence for ongoing landslide activity. It is, however, clear that future landslide events will occur here due to the favourable lithological, structural, and geotechnical conditions. Finally, we propose that future landslide activity at the site may be predicted by the height of water table as this defines theoretical pore pressure at the depth of the shear plane.

Description: Owen Ridge deep-water submarine landslides: implications for tsunami hazard along the Oman coast Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 417-424, 2013 Author(s): M. Rodriguez, N. Chamot-Rooke, H. Hébert, M. Fournier, and P. Huchon The recent discovery of voluminous submarine landslides along the Owen Ridge may represent a source of tsunami hazard for the nearby Oman coast. We assess the severity of this potential hazard by performing numerical simulations of tsunami generation and propagation from the biggest landslide (40 km 3 in volume) observed along the Owen Ridge. A finite-difference model, assimilating the landslide to a visco-plastic flow, simulates tsunami generation. Computation results show that Salalah city (190 000 inhabitants) is impacted by 2.5 m-high tsunami waves one hour after sediment failure. Higher wave elevation values (4 m) are reached in the low populated Sawqara Bay over 80 min after slide initiation. Although large submarine failures along remote oceanic ridges are infrequent, this study reveals an underestimated source of tsunami hazard in the Arabian Sea.

Description: Temporal and spatial variations in ionospheric electron density profiles over South Africa during strong magnetic storms Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 375-384, 2013 Author(s): Y. B. Yao, P. Chen, S. Zhang, and J. J. Chen Observations from the South African TrigNet global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and vertical total electron content (VTEC) data from the Jason-1 satellite were used to analyze the variations in ionospheric electron density profiles over South Africa before and after the severe geomagnetic storms on 15 May 2005. Computerized ionospheric tomography (CIT) was used to inverse the 3-D structure of ionospheric electron density and its response to the magnetic storms. Inversion results showed that electron density significantly increased at 10:00 UT, 15 May compared with that at the same period on 14 May. Positive ionospheric storms were observed in the inversion region during the magnetic storms. Jason-1 data show that the VTEC observed on descending orbits on 15 May significantly increased, whereas that on ascending orbits only minimally changed. This finding is identical to the CIT result.

Description: Spatiotemporal variability analysis of diffuse radiation in China during 1981–2010 Annales Geophysicae, 31, 277-289, 2013 Author(s): X. L. Ren, H. L. He, L. Zhang, L. Zhou, G. R. Yu, and J. W. Fan Solar radiation is the primary driver of terrestrial plant photosynthesis and the diffuse component can enhance canopy light use efficiency (LUE), which in turn influences the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. In this study we calculated the spatial data of diffuse radiation in China from 1981 to 2010, using a radiation decomposition model and spatial interpolation method based on observational data. Furthermore, we explored the spatiotemporal characteristics of diffuse radiation using GIS and trend analysis techniques. The results show the following: (1) The spatial patterns of perennial average of annual diffuse radiation during 1981–2010 are complex and inhomogeneous in China, generally lower in the north and higher in the south and west. The perennial average ranges from 1730.20 to 3064.41 MJ m −2 yr −1 across the whole country. (2) There is an increasing trend of annual diffuse radiation in China from 1981 to 2010 on the whole, with mean increasing amplitude of 7.03 MJ m −2 yr −1 per decade. Whereas a significant downtrend was observed in the first 10 years, distinct anomalies in 1982, 1983, 1991 and 1992 occurred due to the eruptions of El Chinchon and Pinatubo. (3) The spatial distribution of the temporal variability of diffuse radiation showed significant regional heterogeneity in addition to the seasonal differences. Northwestern China has the most evident downtrend, with highest decreasing rate of 6% per decade, while the Tibetan Plateau has the most evident uptrend, with highest increasing rate of up to 9% per decade. Such quantitative spatiotemporal characteristics of diffuse radiation are essential in regional scale modeling of terrestrial carbon dynamics.

Description: Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management – Part 1: Theoretical framework Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 425-437, 2013 Author(s): M. Peng and L. M. Zhang An evacuation decision for dam breaks is a very serious issue. A late decision may lead to loss of lives and properties, but a very early evacuation will incur unnecessary expenses. This paper presents a risk-based framework of dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM). The dam-break emergency management in both time scale and space scale is introduced first to define the dynamic decision problem. The probability of dam failure is taken as a stochastic process and estimated using a time-series analysis method. The flood consequences are taken as functions of warning time and evaluated with a human risk analysis model (HURAM) based on Bayesian networks. A decision criterion is suggested to decide whether to evacuate the population at risk (PAR) or to delay the decision. The optimum time for evacuating the PAR is obtained by minimizing the expected total loss, which integrates the time-related probabilities and flood consequences. When a delayed decision is chosen, the decision making can be updated with available new information. A specific dam-break case study is presented in a companion paper to illustrate the application of this framework to complex dam-breaching problems.

Description: Comment on "Storming the Bastille: the effect of electric fields on the ionospheric F-layer" by Rishbeth et al. (2010) Annales Geophysicae, 31, 145-150, 2013 Author(s): B. T. Tsurutani, A. J. Mannuccci, O. P. Verkhoglyadova, and G. S. Lakhina No abstract available.

Description: Scale model for the confluent area of debris flow and main river: a case study of the Wenjia Gully Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3083-3093, 2013 Author(s): J. Zhang, Z. X. Guo, S. Y. Cao, and V. P. Singh When debris flow discharges into the main river, the deposition of debris raises the river bed, occupies the path of water conveyance and damages or even destroys buildings, resulting in considerable economic loss and possibly fatalities. Mathematical models are normally employed to compute debris flow. However, most of these models employ empirical formulae and coefficients and their results are seldom reliable. On the other hand, scale model tests associated with debris flow have seldom been conducted due to the lack of corresponding similarity laws and the difficulty of achieving the grain diameter scale. Focusing on pseudo-one-phase flow, this paper discusses the laws of similarity for the confluence of debris flow and main river and conducts a case study of the debris flow that occurred on 13 August 2010, in the Wenjia Gully, China. After satisfying the roughness scale, the kinematic viscosity coefficient scale, and the momentum ratio scale, it was found that the deposition terrain in the model test is consistent with the one in the prototype.

Description: Shallow landslide's stochastic risk modelling based on the precipitation event of August 2005 in Switzerland: results and implications Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3169-3184, 2013 Author(s): P. Nicolet, L. Foresti, O. Caspar, and M. Jaboyedoff Due to their relatively unpredictable characteristics, shallow landslides represent a risk for human infrastructures. Multiple shallow landslides can be triggered by widespread intense precipitation events. The event of August 2005 in Switzerland is used in order to propose a risk model to predict the expected number of landslides based on the precipitation amounts and lithological units. The spatial distribution of rainfall is characterized by merging data coming from operational weather radars and a dense network of rain gauges with an artificial neural network. Lithologies are grouped into four main units, with similar characteristics. Then, from a landslide inventory containing more than 5000 landslides, a probabilistic relation linking the precipitation amount and the lithology to the number of landslides in a 1 km 2 cell, is derived. In a next step, this relation is used to randomly redistribute the landslides using Monte Carlo simulations. The probability for a landslide to reach a building is assessed using stochastic geometry and the damage cost is assessed from the estimated mean damage cost using an exponential distribution to account for the variability. Although the model reproduces well the number of landslides, the number of affected buildings is underestimated. This seems to result from the human influence on landslide occurrence. Such a model might be useful to characterize the risk resulting from shallow landslides and its variability.

Description: Tephra hazard assessment at Mt. Etna (Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3221-3233, 2013 Author(s): S. Scollo, M. Coltelli, C. Bonadonna, and P. Del Carlo In this paper we present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Mt. Etna (Italy) associated with both short- and long-lived eruptions. Eruptive scenarios and eruption source parameters were defined based on the geological record, while an advection–diffusion–sedimentation model was used to capture the variation in wind speed and direction with time after calibration with the field data. Two different types of eruptions were considered in our analysis: eruptions associated with strong short-lived plumes and eruptions associated with weak long-lived plumes. Our probabilistic approach was based on one eruption scenario for both types and on an eruption range scenario for eruptions producing weak long-lived plumes. Due to the prevailing wind direction, the eastern flanks are the most affected by tephra deposition, with the 122 BC Plinian and 2002–2003 eruptions showing the highest impact both on infrastructures and agriculture.

Description: Sediment transport on the inner shelf off Khao Lak (Andaman Sea, Thailand) during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and former storm events: evidence from foraminiferal transfer functions Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3113-3128, 2013 Author(s): Y. Milker, M. Wilken, J. Schumann, D. Sakuna, P. Feldens, K. Schwarzer, and G. Schmiedl We have investigated the benthic foraminiferal fauna from sediment event layers associated with the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and former storms that have been retrieved in short sediment cores from offshore environments of the Andaman Sea, off Khao Lak, western Thailand. Species composition and test preservation of the benthic foraminiferal faunas exhibit pronounced changes across the studied sections and provide information on the depositional history of the tsunami layer, particularly on the source water depth of the displaced foraminiferal tests. In order to obtain accurate bathymetric information on sediment provenance, we have mapped the distribution of modern faunas in non-tsunamigenic surface sediments and created a calibration data set for the development of a transfer function. Our quantitative reconstructions revealed that the resuspension of sediment particles by the tsunami wave was restricted to a maximum water depth of approximately 20 m. Similar values were obtained for former storm events, thus impeding an easy distinction of different high-energy events.

Description: Mapping tsunami impacts on land cover and related ecosystem service supply in Phang Nga, Thailand Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3095-3111, 2013 Author(s): G. Kaiser, B. Burkhard, H. Römer, S. Sangkaew, R. Graterol, T. Haitook, H. Sterr, and D. Sakuna-Schwartz The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused damages to coastal ecosystems and thus affected the livelihoods of the coastal communities who depend on services provided by these ecosystems. The paper presents a case study on evaluating and mapping the spatial and temporal impacts of the tsunami on land use and land cover (LULC) and related ecosystem service supply in the Phang Nga province, Thailand. The method includes local stakeholder interviews, field investigations, remote-sensing techniques, and GIS. Results provide an ecosystem services matrix with capacity scores for 18 LULC classes and 17 ecosystem functions and services as well as pre-/post-tsunami and recovery maps indicating changes in the ecosystem service supply capacities in the study area. Local stakeholder interviews revealed that mangroves, casuarina forest, mixed beach forest, coral reefs, tidal inlets, as well as wetlands (peat swamp forest) have the highest capacity to supply ecosystem services, while e.g. plantations have a lower capacity. The remote-sensing based damage and recovery analysis showed a loss of the ecosystem service supply capacities in almost all LULC classes for most of the services due to the tsunami. A fast recovery of LULC and related ecosystem service supply capacities within one year could be observed for e.g. beaches, while mangroves or casuarina forest needed several years to recover. Applying multi-temporal mapping the spatial variations of recovery could be visualised. While some patches of coastal forest were fully recovered after 3 yr, other patches were still affected and thus had a reduced capacity to supply ecosystem services. The ecosystem services maps can be used to quantify ecological values and their spatial distribution in the framework of a tsunami risk assessment. Beyond that they are considered to be a useful tool for spatial analysis in coastal risk management in Phang Nga.

Description: Statistical study of foreshock cavitons Annales Geophysicae, 31, 2163-2178, 2013 Author(s): P. Kajdič, X. Blanco-Cano, N. Omidi, K. Meziane, C. T. Russell, J.-A. Sauvaud, I. Dandouras, and B. Lavraud In this work we perform a statistical analysis of 92 foreshock cavitons observed with the Cluster spacecraft 1 during the period 2001–2006. We analyze time intervals during which the spacecraft was located in the Earth's foreshock with durations longer than 10 min. Together these amount to ~ 50 days. The cavitons are transient structures in the Earth's foreshock. Their main signatures in the data include simultaneous depletions of the magnetic field intensity and plasma density, which are surrounded by a rim of enhanced values of these two quantities. Cavitons form due to nonlinear interaction of transverse and compressive ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves and are therefore always surrounded by intense compressive ULF fluctuations. They are carried by the solar wind towards the bow shock. This work represents the first systematic study of a large sample of foreshock cavitons. We find that cavitons appear for a wide range of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field conditions and are therefore a common feature upstream of Earth's quasi-parallel bow shock with an average occurrence rate of ~ 2 events per day. We also discuss their observational properties in the context of other known upstream phenomena and show that the cavitons are a distinct structure in the foreshock.

Description: Calibration of a real-time tsunami detection algorithm for sites with no instrumental tsunami records: application to coastal tide-gauge stations in eastern Sicily, Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3129-3144, 2013 Author(s): L. Bressan, F. Zaniboni, and S. Tinti Coastal tide gauges play a very important role in a tsunami warning system, since sea-level data are needed for a correct evaluation of the tsunami threat, and the tsunami arrival has to be recognized as early as possible. Real-time tsunami detection algorithms serve this purpose. For an efficient detection, they have to be calibrated and adapted to the specific local characteristics of the site where they are installed, which is easily done when the station has recorded a sufficiently large number of tsunamis. In this case the recorded database can be used to select the best set of parameters enhancing the discrimination power of the algorithm and minimizing the detection time. This chance is however rare, since most of the coastal tide-gauge stations, either historical or of new installation, have recorded only a few tsunamis in their lifetimes, if any. In this case calibration must be carried out by using synthetic tsunami signals, which poses the problem of how to generate them and how to use them. This paper investigates this issue and proposes a calibration approach by using as an example a specific case, which is the calibration of a real-time detection algorithm called TEDA (Tsunami Early Detection Algorithm) for two stations (namely Tremestieri and Catania) in eastern Sicily, Italy, which were recently installed in the frame of the Italian project TSUNET, aiming at improving the tsunami monitoring capacity in a region that is one of the most hazardous tsunami areas of Italy and of the Mediterranean.

Description: Assessment of flash floods taking into account climate change scenarios in the Llobregat River basin Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3145-3156, 2013 Author(s): M. Velasco, P. A. Versini, A. Cabello, and A. Barrera-Escoda Global change may imply important changes in the future occurrence and intensity of extreme events. Climate scenarios characterizing these plausible changes were previously obtained for the Llobregat River basin (NE Spain). This paper presents the implementation of these scenarios in the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) hydrological model. Then, the expected changes in terms of flash flood occurrence and intensity are assessed for two different sub-basins: the Alt Llobregat and the Anoia (Llobregat River basin). The assessment of future flash floods has been done in terms of the intensity and occurrence of extreme events, using a peak over threshold (POT) analysis. For these two sub-basins, most of the simulated scenarios present an increase of the intensity of the peak discharge values. On the other hand, the future occurrence follows different trends in the two sub-basins: an increase is observed in Alt Llobregat but a decrease occurs in Anoia. Despite the uncertainties that appear in the whole process, the results obtained can shed some light on how future flash floods events may occur.

Description: Sea cliff instability susceptibility at regional scale: a statistically based assessment in the southern Algarve, Portugal Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3185-3203, 2013 Author(s): F. M. S. F. Marques, R. Matildes, and P. Redweik Sea cliff evolution is dominated by the occurrence of slope mass movements of different types and sizes, which are a considerable source of natural hazard, making their assessment a relevant issue in terms of human loss prevention and land use regulations. To address the assessment of the spatial component of sea cliff hazards, i.e. the susceptibility, a statistically based study was made to assess the capacity of a set of conditioning factors to express the occurrence of sea cliff failures affecting areas located along their top. The study was based on the application of the bivariate information value and multivariate logistic regression statistical methods, using a set of predisposing factors for cliff failures, mainly related to geology (lithology, bedding dip, faults) and geomorphology (maximum and mean slope, height, aspect, plan curvature, toe protection), which were correlated with a photogrammetry-based inventory of cliff failures that occurred in a 60 yr period (1947–2007). The susceptibility models were validated against the inventory data using standard success rate and ROC curves, and provided encouraging results, indicating that the proposed approaches are effective for susceptibility assessment. The results obtained also stress the need for improvement of the predisposing factors to be used in this type of study and the need for detailed and systematic cliff failure inventories.

Description: Application and reliability of techniques for landslide site investigation, monitoring and early warning – outcomes from a questionnaire study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3157-3168, 2013 Author(s): I. Baroň and R. Supper The presented questionnaire study summarizes an evaluation of approaches, techniques and parameters of slope-instability investigation and monitoring of their occurrence, reliability and the applicability of the monitoring techniques for early warning. The study is based on information collected from 86 monitored landslides in 14 European and Asian countries. Based on the responses, lidar ALS (airborne laser scanners), geophysical logging, aerial photographs, resistivity surveying, GB InSAR (ground-based synthetic aperture radar interferometer) and the refraction seismic were considered the most reliable methods for investigation of structure and character of landslides. Especially lidar ALS and geophysical logging were ranked high despite their application at relatively few landslides. Precipitation amount, pore-water pressure and displacement monitored by wire extensometers, dGPS and total stations, followed by air temperature and EM-emissions monitoring and displacement monitored by the TM 71 crack gauge were considered the most promising parameters for early warning.

Description: Theoretical constraints on the cross-tail width of bursty bulk flows Annales Geophysicae, 31, 2179-2192, 2013 Author(s): C. X. Chen The characteristic cross-tail width of bursty bulk flows (BBFs) in earth's plasma sheet was investigated at two stages of its life, one at its onset, the other when it is fully developed. Equilibrium domains with gradient of magnetic field are constructed. Interchange instability analysis of such domains yields the most unstable mode with the half wave length comparable with the observed cross-tail width of a flow burst and the inverse of growth rate comparable with its duration. The thickness of the plasma sheet for the most unstable mode is also comparable to the width of BBFs in the north–south direction. We found that viscosity, the dimension of the unstable domain, the thickness of the plasma sheet and gradient of the magnetic field together determine the most unstable mode. The ion Larmor radius plays an important role in viscosity as half effective mean free path. For a fully developed flow, however, velocity-caused pressure difference between the leading and trailing sides of a flow burst also plays a role. The equatorial cross section of flow is reshaped and its cross-tail width is changed as well. Representing the surrounding medium with empirical magnetic field and plasma models, the force balance of the fast flow is analyzed. The cross-section area of flow burst is estimated to be one to several square earth radii, and the cross-tail width of fast flow is estimated to be 1 to 3 earth radii, which is consistent with observations of BBFs.

Description: Novel method for hurricane trajectory prediction based on data mining Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3211-3220, 2013 Author(s): X. Dong and D. C. Pi This paper describes a novel method for hurricane trajectory prediction based on data mining (HTPDM) according to the hurricane's motion characteristics. Firstly, all frequent trajectories in the historical hurricane trajectory database are mined by using association analysis technology and their corresponding association rules are generated as motion patterns. Then, the current hurricane trajectories are matched with the motion patterns for predicting. If no association rule is found for matching, a predicted result according to the hurricane current movement trend would be returned. All experiments are conducted with the Atlantic weather Hurricane/Tropical Data from 1900 to 2008. The experimental results show that if the matching failure part is contained, the prediction accuracy is 57.5%. Whereas, the valve would be to 65% provided all matches are successful.

Description: Ray tracing model of the auroral kilometric radiation generation in the 3-D plasma cavity Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1645-1652, 2013 Author(s): T. M. Burinskaya Propagation and amplification of the auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) in a three-dimensional plasma cavity is investigated using the approximation of the geometrical optics, and taking into account both the slightly relativistic electrons propagating inside a cavity and the background cold electrons. It is shown that the global magnetic field inhomogeneity plays a key role in a wave escape from a thin plasma cavity. The main contribution to the AKR spectrum is made by waves initially generated with the component of group velocity directed to the Earth and with the optimum relationship between the wave vector components, controlling the value of the linear grow rate and duration of the ray lifetime inside a source.

Description: Empirical regional models for the short-term forecast of M3000F2 during not quiet geomagnetic conditions over Europe Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1653-1671, 2013 Author(s): M. Pietrella Twelve empirical local models have been developed for the long-term prediction of the ionospheric characteristic M3000F2 , and then used as starting point for the development of a short-term forecasting empirical regional model of M3000F2 under not quiet geomagnetic conditions. Under the assumption that the monthly median measurements of M3000F2 are linearly correlated to the solar activity, a set of regression coefficients were calculated over 12 months and 24 h for each of 12 ionospheric observatories located in the European area, and then used for the long-term prediction of M3000F2 at each station under consideration. Based on the 12 long-term prediction empirical local models of M3000F2 , an empirical regional model for the prediction of the monthly median field of M3000F2 over Europe (indicated as RM_M3000F2 ) was developed. Thanks to the IFELM_foF2 models, which are able to provide short-term forecasts of the critical frequency of the F2 layer ( fo F2 STF ) up to three hours in advance, it was possible to considerer the Brudley–Dudeney algorithm as a function of fo F2 STF to correct RM_M3000F2 and thus obtain an empirical regional model for the short-term forecasting of M3000F2 (indicated as RM_M3000F2_BD ) up to three hours in advance under not quiet geomagnetic conditions. From the long-term predictions of M3000F2 provided by the IRI model, an empirical regional model for the forecast of the monthly median field of M3000F2 over Europe (indicated as IRI_RM_M3000F2 ) was derived. IRI_RM_M3000F2 predictions were modified with the Bradley–Dudeney correction factor, and another empirical regional model for the short-term forecasting of M3000F2 (indicated as IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD ) up to three hours ahead under not quiet geomagnetic conditions was obtained. The main results achieved comparing the performance of RM_M3000F2 , RM_M3000F2_BD , IRI_RM_M3000F2 , and IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD are (1) in the case of moderate geomagnetic activity, the Bradley–Dudeney correction factor does not improve significantly the predictions; (2) under disturbed geomagnetic conditions, the Bradley–Dudeney formula improves the predictions of RM_M3000F2 in the entire European area; (3) in the case of very disturbed geomagnetic conditions, the Bradley–Dudeney algorithm is very effective in improving the performance of IRI_RM_M3000F2 ; (4) under moderate geomagnetic conditions, the long-term prediction maps of M3000F2 generated by RM_M3000F2 can be considered as short-term forecasting maps providing very satisfactory results because quiet geomagnetic conditions are not so diverse from moderate geomagnetic conditions; (5) the forecasting maps originated by RM_M3000F2 , RM_M3000F2_BD , and IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD show some regions where the forecasts are not satisfactory, but also wide sectors where the M3000F2 forecasts quite faithfully match the M3000F2 observations, and therefore RM_M3000F2 , RM_M3000F2_BD , and IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD could be exploited to produce short-term forecasting maps of M3000F2 over Europe up to 3 h in advance.

Description: On the supply of heavy planetary material to the magnetotail of Mercury Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1673-1679, 2013 Author(s): D. C. Delcourt We examine the transport of low-energy heavy ions of planetary origin (O + , Na + , Ca + ) in the magnetosphere of Mercury. We show that, in contrast to Earth, these ions are abruptly energized after ejection into the magnetosphere due to enhanced curvature-related parallel acceleration. Regardless of their mass-to-charge ratio, the parallel speed of these ions is rapidly raised up to ~ 2 V E × B (denoting by V E × B the magnitude of the local E × B drift speed), in a like manner to Fermi-type acceleration by a moving magnetic mirror. This parallel energization is such that ions with very low initial energies (a few tenths of eVs) can overcome gravity and, regardless of species or convection rate, are transported over comparable distances into the nightside magnetosphere. The region of space where these ions reach the magnetotail is found to extend over altitudes similar to those where enhanced densities are noticeable in the MESSENGER data, viz., from ~ 1000 km up to ~ 6000 km in the pre-midnight sector. The observed density enhancements may thus follow from E × B related focusing of planetary material of dayside origin into the magnetotail. Due to the planetary magnetic field offset, an asymmetry is found between drift paths anchored in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, which puts forward a predominant role of heavy material originating in the Northern Hemisphere in populating the innermost region of Mercury's magnetotail.

Description: Potential and limitations of risk scenario tools in volcanic areas through an example at Mount Cameroon Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2409-2424, 2013 Author(s): P. Gehl, C. Quinet, G. Le Cozannet, E. Kouokam, and P. Thierry This paper presents an integrated approach to conduct a scenario-based volcanic risk assessment on a variety of exposed assets, such as residential buildings, cultivated areas, network infrastructures or individual strategic buildings. The focus is put on the simulation of scenarios, based on deterministic adverse event input, which are applied to the case study of an effusive eruption on the Mount Cameroon volcano, resulting in the damage estimation of the assets located in the area. The work is based on the recent advances in the field of seismic risk. A software for systemic risk scenario analysis developed within the FP7 project SYNER-G has been adapted to address the issue of volcanic risk. Most significant improvements include the addition of vulnerability models adapted to each kind of exposed element and the possibility to quantify the successive potential damages inflicted by a sequence of adverse events (e.g. lava flows, tephra fall, etc.). The use of an object-oriented architecture gives the opportunity to model and compute the physical damage of very disparate types of infrastructures under the same framework. Finally, while the risk scenario approach is limited to the assessment of the physical impact of adverse events, a specific focus on strategic infrastructures and a dialogue with stakeholders helps in evaluating the potential wider indirect consequences of an eruption.

Description: Simulation systems for tsunami wave propagation forecasting within the French tsunami warning center Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2465-2482, 2013 Author(s): A. Gailler, H. Hébert, A. Loevenbruck, and B. Hernandez A model-based tsunami prediction system has been developed as part of the French Tsunami Warning Center (operational since 1 July 2012). It involves a precomputed unit source functions database (i.e., a number of tsunami model runs that are calculated ahead of time and stored). For the Mediterranean basin, the faults of the unit functions are placed adjacent to each other, following the discretization of the main seismogenic faults. An automated composite scenarios calculation tool is implemented to allow the simulation of any tsunami propagation scenario (i.e., of any seismic moment). Uncertainty on the magnitude of the detected event and inaccuracy of the epicenter location are taken into account in the composite scenarios calculation. Together with this forecasting system, another operational tool based on real time computing is implemented as part of the French Tsunami Warning Center. This second tsunami simulation tool takes advantage of multiprocessor approaches and more realistic seismological parameters, once the focal mechanism is established. Three examples of historical earthquakes are presented, providing warning refinement compared to the rough tsunami risk map given by the model-based decision matrix.