ALBERT

Description: Review Article: On the relation between the seismic activity and the Hurst exponent of the geomagnetic field at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2189-2194, 2013 Author(s): F. Masci and J. N. Thomas Many papers document the observation of earthquake-related precursory signatures in geomagnetic field data. However, the significance of these findings is ambiguous because the authors did not adequately take into account that these signals could have been generated by other sources, and the seismogenic origin of these signals have not been validated by comparison with independent datasets. Thus, they are not reliable examples of magnetic disturbances induced by the seismic activity. Hayakawa et al. (2004) claim that at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm the Hurst exponent of the Ultra-Low-Frequency (ULF: 0.001–10 Hz) band of the geomagnetic field varied in accord with the energy released by the seismicity. The present paper demonstrates that the behaviour of the Hurst exponent was insufficiently investigated and also misinterpreted by the authors. We clearly show that during the Izu swarm the changes of the Hurst exponent were strongly related to the level of global geomagnetic activity and not to the increase of the local seismic activity.

Description: Forest fire danger rating in complex topography – results from a case study in the Bavarian Alps in autumn 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2157-2167, 2013 Author(s): C. Schunk, C. Wastl, M. Leuchner, C. Schuster, and A. Menzel Forest fire danger rating based on sparse meteorological stations is known to be potentially misleading when assigned to larger areas of complex topography. This case study examines several fire danger indices based on data from two meteorological stations at different elevations during a major drought period. This drought was caused by a persistent high pressure system, inducing a pronounced temperature inversion and its associated thermal belt with much warmer, dryer conditions in intermediate elevations. Thus, a massive drying of fuels, leading to higher fire danger levels, and multiple fire occurrences at mid-slope positions were contrasted by moderate fire danger especially in the valleys. The ability of fire danger indices to resolve this situation was studied based on a comparison with the actual fire danger as determined from expert observations, fire occurrences and fuel moisture measurements. The results revealed that, during temperature inversion, differences in daily cycles of meteorological parameters influence fire danger and that these are not resolved by standard meteorological stations and fire danger indices (calculated on a once-a-day basis). Additional stations in higher locations or high-resolution meteorological models combined with fire danger indices accepting at least hourly input data may allow reasonable fire danger calculations under these circumstances.

Description: Preface "Landslide hazard and risk assessment at different scales" Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2169-2171, 2013 Author(s): P. Reichenbach, A. Günther, and T. Glade

Description: Tidally induced velocity variations of the Beardmore Glacier, Antarctica, and their representation in satellite measurements of ice velocity The Cryosphere, 7, 1375-1384, 2013 Author(s): O. J. Marsh, W. Rack, D. Floricioiu, N. R. Golledge, and W. Lawson Ocean tides close to the grounding line of outlet glaciers around Antarctica have been shown to directly influence ice velocity, both linearly and non-linearly. These fluctuations can be significant and have the potential to affect satellite measurements of ice discharge, which assume displacement between satellite passes to be consistent and representative of annual means. Satellite observations of horizontal velocity variation in the grounding zone are also contaminated by vertical tidal effects, the importance of which is highlighted here in speckle tracking measurements. Eight TerraSAR-X scenes from the grounding zone of the Beardmore Glacier are analysed in conjunction with GPS measurements to determine short-term and decadal trends in ice velocity. Diurnal tides produce horizontal velocity fluctuations of 〉50% on the ice shelf, recorded in the GPS data 4 km downstream of the grounding line. This variability decreases rapidly to 〈5% only 15 km upstream of the grounding line. Daily fluctuations are smoothed to 〈1% in the 11-day repeat pass TerraSAR-X imagery, but fortnightly variations over this period are still visible and show that satellite-velocity measurements can be affected by tides over longer periods. The measured tidal displacement observed in radar look direction over floating ice also allows the grounding line to be identified, using differential speckle tracking where phase information cannot be easily unwrapped.

Description: Linking ICT and society in early warning and adaptation to hydrological extremes in mountains Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2253-2270, 2013 Author(s): C. de Jong The assessment of the societal impact of hydrological extremes is particularly important in mountain regions, since mountains can be considered both as the generators and victims of extreme events. ICT can provide a powerful tool for transmitting hydro-meteorological information to predict, prepare and adapt to such events. However, in remote regions, such as mountains, the poles, deserts and islands, preventive and adaptive measures are often restricted by data availability and lack and/or incoherence of data networks. This paper distinguishes between early warning of floods and droughts, emphasising the latter in particular in mountains and explores the possibilities of enhancing the role of society in data collection, the identification, activation and application of stakeholder knowledge and transferral of data from gauged to ungauged catchments.

Description: Snow on the Ross Ice Shelf: comparison of reanalyses and observations from automatic weather stations The Cryosphere, 7, 1399-1410, 2013 Author(s): L. Cohen and S. Dean Snow accumulation measurements from automatic weather stations (AWS) around the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), Antarctica, are used to provide a new set of ground-based observations which are compared to precipitation from the ECMWF ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-2 datasets. The high temporal resolution of the AWS snow accumulation measurements allow for an event-based comparison of reanalyses precipitation to the in situ observations. Snow accumulation records from nine AWS provide multiple years of accumulation data between 2008 and 2012 over a relatively large, homogeneous region of Antarctica, and also provide the basis for a statistical evaluation of accumulation and precipitation events. The complex effects of wind on snow accumulation (which can both limit and enhance accumulation) complicate the use of the accumulation measurements, but this analysis shows that they can provide a valuable source of ground-based observations for comparisons to modelled precipitation on synoptic timescales. The analysis shows that ERA-Interim reproduces more precipitation events than NCEP-2, and these events correspond to an average 8.2% more precipitation. Significant correlations between reanalyses and AWS event sizes are seen at several stations and show that ERA-Interim consistently produces larger precipitation events than NCEP-2.

Description: The environmental impact of the Puyehue–Cordon Caulle 2011 volcanic eruption on Buenos Aires Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2319-2330, 2013 Author(s): G. B. Raga, D. Baumgardner, A. G. Ulke, M. Torres Brizuela, and B. Kucienska On 4 June 2011, the volcanic complex Puyehue–Cordon Caulle located in the Chilean Andes erupted, producing a plume of gases and particles that eventually circled the Southern Hemisphere, disrupting air travel and depositing ash in large quantities. On eight occasions, the plume passed over the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, leading local authorities to close the two international airports. The eruption occurred during an on-going field campaign when measurements of the properties of atmospheric aerosol particles were being made in Buenos Aires as part of a year-long study of the concentration and optical properties of aerosol at one site in the city. The suite of instruments deployed in Buenos Aires were not tailored to measurements of volcanic ash, but were designed to characterize urban conditions. Nevertheless, these measurements were analysed for periods when vertical profiles of aerosol backscatter, made with a ceilometer, clearly showed the presence of the volcano plume over the research site and resulted in airport closure. Aerosol optical thickness derived from AERONET, MODIS and a ceilometer at our research site, all show enhanced values clearly indicating that the three platforms identified the volcanic plume simultaneously. However, a quantitative comparison of the different estimates proves difficult, suggesting large spatial and temporal variability of the plume. Our results indicate that the number concentration of condensation nuclei (CN), the mass concentration of particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PPAH) and the light absorption coefficient exceeded the average background values by more than one standard deviation during the events of volcanic plume. The anomalous concentrations of CN suggest new particle formation, presumably from the conversion of SO 2 , while the anomalous concentrations of PPAH may come from the uptake of PAHs on the plume particles or from chemical reactions on the surface of plume particles. The anomalous absorption coefficients indicate that plume particles may contain certain compounds that can absorb radiation at 550 nm. Another possible explanation consistent with the observations is the scavenging of black carbon from urban sources as the plume descends through the boundary layer to the surface. In addition, the volcanic plume influenced the local meteorology resulting in a decrease of the temperature when compared to the average temperature during days with no plume present.

Description: Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2301-2318, 2013 Author(s): A. Beckers, B. Dewals, S. Erpicum, S. Dujardin, S. Detrembleur, J. Teller, M. Pirotton, and P. Archambeau Managing flood risk in Europe is a critical issue because climate change is expected to increase flood hazard in many european countries. Beside climate change, land use evolution is also a key factor influencing future flood risk. The core contribution of this paper is a new methodology to model residential land use evolution. Based on two climate scenarios ("dry" and "wet"), the method is applied to study the evolution of flood damage by 2100 along the river Meuse. Nine urbanization scenarios were developed: three of them assume a "current trend" land use evolution, leading to a significant urban sprawl, while six others assume a dense urban development, characterized by a higher density and a higher diversity of urban functions in the urbanized areas. Using damage curves, the damage estimation was performed by combining inundation maps for the present and future 100 yr flood with present and future land use maps and specific prices. According to the dry scenario, the flood discharge is expected not to increase. In this case, land use changes increase flood damages by 1–40%, to €334–462 million in 2100. In the wet scenario, the relative increase in flood damage is 540–630%, corresponding to total damages of €2.1–2.4 billion. In this extreme scenario, the influence of climate on the overall damage is 3–8 times higher than the effect of land use change. However, for seven municipalities along the river Meuse, these two factors have a comparable influence. Consequently, in the "wet" scenario and at the level of the whole Meuse valley in the Walloon region, careful spatial planning would reduce the increase in flood damage by no more than 11–23%; but, at the level of several municipalities, more sustainable spatial planning would reduce future flood damage to a much greater degree.

Description: A general treatment of snow microstructure exemplified by an improved relation for thermal conductivity The Cryosphere, 7, 1473-1480, 2013 Author(s): H. Löwe, F. Riche, and M. Schneebeli Finding relevant microstructural parameters beyond density is a longstanding problem which hinders the formulation of accurate parameterizations of physical properties of snow. Towards a remedy, we address the effective thermal conductivity tensor of snow via anisotropic, second-order bounds. The bound provides an explicit expression for the thermal conductivity and predicts the relevance of a microstructural anisotropy parameter Q , which is given by an integral over the two-point correlation function and unambiguously defined for arbitrary snow structures. For validation we compiled a comprehensive data set of 167 snow samples. The set comprises individual samples of various snow types and entire time series of metamorphism experiments under isothermal and temperature gradient conditions. All samples were digitally reconstructed by micro-computed tomography to perform microstructure-based simulations of heat transport. The incorporation of anisotropy via Q considerably reduces the root mean square error over the usual density-based parameterization. The systematic quantification of anisotropy via the two-point correlation function suggests a generalizable route to incorporate microstructure into snowpack models. We indicate the inter-relation of the conductivity to other properties and outline a potential impact of Q on dielectric constant, permeability and adsorption rate of diffusing species in the pore space.

Description: Influence of high-order mechanics on simulation of glacier response to climate change: insights from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains The Cryosphere, 7, 1527-1541, 2013 Author(s): S. Adhikari and S. J. Marshall Evolution of glaciers in response to climate change has mostly been simulated using simplified dynamical models. Because these models do not account for the influence of high-order physics, corresponding results may exhibit some biases. For Haig Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, we test this hypothesis by comparing simulation results obtained from 3-D numerical models that deal with different assumptions concerning physics, ranging from simple shear deformation to comprehensive Stokes flow. In glacier retreat scenarios, we find a minimal role of high-order mechanics in glacier evolution, as geometric effects at our site (the presence of an overdeepened bed) result in limited horizontal movement of ice (flow speed on the order of a few meters per year). Consequently, high-order and reduced models all predict that Haig Glacier ceases to exist by ca. 2080 under ongoing climate warming. The influence of high-order mechanics is evident, however, in glacier advance scenarios, where ice speeds are greater and ice dynamical effects become more important. Although similar studies on other glaciers are essential to generalize such findings, we advise that high-order mechanics are important and therefore should be considered while modeling the evolution of active glaciers. Reduced model predictions may be adequate for other glaciologic and topographic settings, particularly where flow speeds are low and where mass balance changes dominate over ice dynamics in determining glacier geometry.

Description: Meteorological drivers of ablation processes on a cold glacier in the semi-arid Andes of Chile The Cryosphere, 7, 1513-1526, 2013 Author(s): S. MacDonell, C. Kinnard, T. Mölg, L. Nicholson, and J. Abermann Meteorological and surface change measurements collected during a 2.5 yr period are used to calculate surface mass and energy balances at 5324 m a.s.l. on Guanaco Glacier, a cold-based glacier in the semi-arid Andes of Chile. Meteorological conditions are marked by extremely low vapour pressures (annual mean of 1.1 hPa), strong winds (annual mean of 10 m s −1 ), shortwave radiation receipt persistently close to the theoretical site maximum during cloud-free days (mean annual 295 W m −2 ; summer hourly maximum 1354 W m −2 ) and low precipitation rates (mean annual 45 mm w.e.). Snowfall occurs sporadically throughout the year and is related to frontal events in the winter and convective storms during the summer months. Net shortwave radiation provides the greatest source of energy to the glacier surface, and net longwave radiation dominates energy losses. The turbulent latent heat flux is always negative, which means that the surface is always losing mass via sublimation, which is the main form of ablation at the site. Sublimation rates are most strongly correlated with net shortwave radiation, incoming shortwave radiation, albedo and vapour pressure. Low glacier surface temperatures restrict melting for much of the period, however episodic melting occurs during the austral summer, when warm, humid, calm and high pressure conditions restrict sublimation and make more energy available for melting. Low accumulation (131 mm w.e. over the period) and relatively high ablation (1435 mm w.e.) means that mass change over the period was negative (−1304 mm w.e.), which continued the negative trend recorded in the region over the last few decades.

Description: Antarctic ice-mass balance 2003 to 2012: regional reanalysis of GRACE satellite gravimetry measurements with improved estimate of glacial-isostatic adjustment based on GPS uplift rates The Cryosphere, 7, 1499-1512, 2013 Author(s): I. Sasgen, H. Konrad, E. R. Ivins, M. R. Van den Broeke, J. L. Bamber, Z. Martinec, and V. Klemann We present regional-scale mass balances for 25 drainage basins of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) from satellite observations of the Gravity and Climate Experiment (GRACE) for time period January 2003 to September 2012. Satellite gravimetry estimates of the AIS mass balance are strongly influenced by mass movement in the Earth interior caused by ice advance and retreat during the last glacial cycle. Here, we develop an improved glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) estimate for Antarctica using newly available GPS uplift rates, allowing us to more accurately separate GIA-induced trends in the GRACE gravity fields from those caused by current imbalances of the AIS. Our revised GIA estimate is considerably lower than previous predictions, yielding an estimate of apparent mass change of 53 ± 18 Gt yr −1 . Therefore, our AIS mass balance of −114 ± 23 Gt yr −1 is less negative than previous GRACE estimates. The northern Antarctic Peninsula and the Amundsen Sea sector exhibit the largest mass loss (−26 ± 3 Gt yr −1 and −127 ± 7 Gt yr −1 , respectively). In contrast, East Antarctica exhibits a slightly positive mass balance (26 ± 13 Gt yr −1 ), which is, however, mostly the consequence of compensating mass anomalies in Dronning Maud and Enderby Land (positive) and Wilkes and George V Land (negative) due to interannual accumulation variations. In total, 6% of the area constitutes about half the AIS imbalance, contributing 151 ± 7 Gt yr −1 (ca. 0.4 mm yr −1 ) to global mean sea-level change. Most of this imbalance is caused by ice-dynamic speed-up expected to prevail in the near future.

Description: Estimating soil suction from electrical resistivity Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2369-2379, 2013 Author(s): E. Piegari and R. Di Maio Soil suction and resistivity strongly depend on the degree of soil saturation and, therefore, both are used for estimating water content variations. The main difference between them is that soil suction is measured using tensiometers, which give point information, while resistivity is obtained by tomography surveys, which provide distributions of resistivity values in large volumes, although with less accuracy. In this paper, we have related soil suction to electrical resistivity with the aim of obtaining information about soil suction changes in large volumes, and not only for small areas around soil suction probes. We derived analytical relationships between soil matric suction and electrical resistivity by combining the empirical laws of van Genuchten and Archie. The obtained relationships were used to evaluate maps of soil suction values in different ashy layers originating in the explosive activity of the Mt Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy). Our findings provided a further example of the high potential of geophysical methods in contributing to more effective monitoring of soil stress conditions; this is of primary importance in areas where rainfall-induced landslides occur periodically.

Description: Sulfur dioxide emissions from Papandayan and Bromo, two Indonesian volcanoes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2399-2407, 2013 Author(s): P. Bani, Surono, M. Hendrasto, H. Gunawan, and S. Primulyana Indonesia hosts 79 active volcanoes, representing 14% of all active volcanoes worldwide. However, little is known about their SO 2 contribution into the atmosphere, due to isolation and access difficulties. Existing SO 2 emission budgets for the Indonesian archipelago are based on extrapolations and inferences as there is a considerable lack of field assessments of degassing. Here, we present the first SO 2 flux measurements using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) for Papandayan and Bromo, two of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia. Results indicate mean SO 2 emission rates of 1.4 t d −1 from the fumarolic activity of Papandayan and more than 22–32 t d −1 of SO 2 released by Bromo during a declining eruptive phase. These DOAS results are very encouraging and pave the way for a better evaluation of Indonesian volcanic emissions.

Description: Interviewing insights regarding the fatalities inflicted by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2173-2187, 2013 Author(s): M. Ando, M. Ishida, Y. Hayashi, C. Mizuki, Y. Nishikawa, and Y. Tu One hundred fifty survivors of the 11 March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (Tohoku-oki earthquake) ( M w = 9.0) were interviewed to study the causes of deaths from the associated tsunami in coastal areas of Tohoku. The first official tsunami warning underestimated the height of the tsunami and 40% of the interviewees did not obtain this warning due to immediate blackouts and a lack of communication after the earthquake. Many chose to remain in dangerous locations based on the underestimated warning and their experiences with previous smaller tsunamis and/or due to misunderstanding the mitigating effects of nearby breakwaters in blocking incoming tsunamis. Some delayed their evacuation to perform family safety checks, and in many situations, the people affected misunderstood the risks involved in tsunamis. In this area, three large tsunamis have struck in the 115 yr preceding the 2011 tsunami. These tsunamis remained in the collective memory of communities, and numerous measures against future tsunami damage, such as breakwaters and tsunami evacuation drills, had been implemented. Despite these preparedness efforts, approximately 18 500 deaths and cases of missing persons occurred. The death rate with the age of 65 and above was particularly high, four times higher than that with other age groups. These interviews indicate that deaths resulted from a variety of reasons, but if residents had taken immediate action after the major ground motion stopped, most residents might have been saved. Education about the science behind earthquakes and tsunamis could help save more lives in the future.

Description: Magnetic field and dynamic pressure ULF fluctuations in coronal-mass-ejection-driven sheath regions Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1559-1567, 2013 Author(s): E. K. J. Kilpua, H. Hietala, H. E. J. Koskinen, D. Fontaine, and L. Turc Compressed sheath regions form ahead of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that are sufficiently faster than the preceding solar wind. The turbulent sheath regions are important drivers of magnetospheric activity, but due to their complex internal structure, relatively little is known on the distribution of the magnetic field and plasma variations in them. In this paper we investigate ultra low frequency (ULF) fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and in dynamic pressure ( P dyn ) using a superposed epoch analysis of 41 sheath regions observed during solar cycle 23. We find strongest fluctuation power near the shock and in the vicinity of the ICME leading edge. The IMF and P dyn ULF power have different profiles within the sheath; the former is enhanced in the leading part of the sheath, while the latter is increased in the trailing part of the sheath. We also find that the ICME properties affect the level and distribution of the ULF power in sheath regions. For example, sheath regions associated with strong or fast ICMEs, or those that are crossed at intermediate distances from the center, have strongest ULF power and large variation in the power throughout the sheath region. The weaker or slower ICMEs, or those that are crossed centrally, have in general considerably weaker ULF power with relatively smooth profiles. The strong and abrupt decrease of the IMF ULF power at the ICME leading edge could be used to distinguish the ICME from the preceding sheath plasma.

Description: Cluster observation of few-hour-scale evolution of structured plasma in the inner magnetosphere Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1569-1578, 2013 Author(s): M. Yamauchi, I. Dandouras, H. Rème, R. Lundin, and L. M. Kistler Using Cluster Ion Spectrometry (CIS) data from the spacecraft-4 perigee traversals during the 2001–2006 period (nearly 500 traversals after removing those that are highly contaminated by radiation belt particles), we statistically examined the local time distribution of structured trapped ions at sub- to few-keV range as well as inbound–outbound differences of these ion signatures in intensities and energy–latitude dispersion directions. Since the Cluster orbit during this period was almost constant and approximately north–south symmetric at nearly constant local time near the perigee, inbound–outbound differences are attributed to temporal developments in a 1–2 h timescale. Three types of structured ions at sub- to few keV range that are commonly found in the inner magnetosphere are examined: – Energy–latitude dispersed structured ions at less than a few keV, – Short-lived dispersionless ion stripes at wide energy range extending 0.1–10 keV, – Short-lived low-energy ion bursts at less than a few hundred eV. The statistics revealed that the wedge-like dispersed ions are most often observed in the dawn sector (60% of traversals), and a large portion of them show significant enhancement during the traversals at all local times. The short-lived ion stripes are predominantly found near midnight, where most stripes are significantly enhanced during the traversals and are associated with substorm activities with geomagnetic AL 〈 −300 nT. The low-energy bursts are observed at all local times and under all geomagnetic conditions, with moderate peak of the occurrence rate in the afternoon sector. A large portion of them again show significant enhancement or decay during the traversals.

Description: Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great ( M w = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2279-2299, 2013 Author(s): T. R. Robinson and T. R. H. Davies The Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island has not sustained a large magnitude earthquake since ca. AD 1717. The time since this rupture is close to the average inferred recurrence interval of the fault (~300 yr). The Alpine Fault is therefore expected to generate a large magnitude earthquake in the near future. Previous ruptures of this fault are inferred to have generated M w = 8.0 or greater earthquakes and to have resulted in, amongst other geomorphic hazards, large-scale landslides and landslide dams throughout the Southern Alps. There is currently 85% probability that the Alpine Fault will cause a M w = 8.0+ earthquake within the next 100 yr. While the seismic hazard is fairly well understood, that of the consequential geomorphic activity is less well studied, and these consequences are explored herein. They are expected to include landsliding, landslide damming, dam-break flooding, debris flows, river aggradation, liquefaction, and landslide-generated lake/fiord tsunami. Using evidence from previous events within New Zealand as well as analogous international examples, we develop first-order estimates of the likely magnitude and possible locations of the geomorphic effects associated with earthquakes. Landsliding is expected to affect an area 〉 30 000 km 2 and involve 〉 1billion m 3 of material. Some tens of landslide dams are expected to occur in narrow, steep-sided gorges in the affected region. Debris flows will be generated in the first long-duration rainfall after the earthquake and will continue to occur for several years as rainfall (re)mobilises landslide material. In total more than 1000 debris flows are likely to be generated at some time after the earthquake. Aggradation of up to 3 m will cover an area 〉 125 km 2 and is likely to occur on many West Coast alluvial fans and floodplains. The impact of these effects will be felt across the entire South Island and is likely to continue for several decades.

Description: Evidence of meltwater retention within the Greenland ice sheet The Cryosphere, 7, 1433-1445, 2013 Author(s): A. K. Rennermalm, L. C. Smith, V. W. Chu, J. E. Box, R. R. Forster, M. R. Van den Broeke, D. Van As, and S. E. Moustafa Greenland ice sheet mass losses have increased in recent decades with more than half of these attributed to surface meltwater runoff. However, the magnitudes of englacial storage, firn retention, internal refreezing and other hydrologic processes that delay or reduce true water export to the global ocean remain less understood, partly due to a scarcity of in situ measurements. Here, ice sheet surface meltwater runoff and proglacial river discharge between 2008 and 2010 near Kangerlussuaq, southwestern Greenland were used to establish sub- and englacial meltwater storage for a small ice sheet watershed (36–64 km 2 ). This watershed lacks significant potential meltwater storage in firn, surface lakes on the ice sheet and in the proglacial area, and receives limited proglacial precipitation. Thus, ice sheet surface runoff not accounted for by river discharge can reasonably be attributed to retention in sub- and englacial storage. Evidence for meltwater storage within the ice sheet includes (1) characteristic dampened daily river discharge amplitudes relative to ice sheet runoff; (2) three cold-season river discharge anomalies at times with limited ice sheet surface melt, demonstrating that meltwater may be retained up to 1–6 months; (3) annual ice sheet watershed runoff is not balanced by river discharge, and while near water budget closure is possible as much as 54% of melting season ice sheet runoff may not escape to downstream rivers; (4) even the large meltwater retention estimate (54%) is equivalent to less than 1% of the ice sheet volume, which suggests that storage in en- and subglacial cavities and till is plausible. While this study is the first to provide evidence for meltwater retention and delayed release within the Greenland ice sheet, more information is needed to establish how widespread this is along the Greenland ice sheet perimeter.

Description: High-resolution provenance of desert dust deposited on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus in 2009–2012 using snow pit and firn core records The Cryosphere, 7, 1481-1498, 2013 Author(s): S. Kutuzov, M. Shahgedanova, V. Mikhalenko, P. Ginot, I. Lavrentiev, and S. Kemp The first record of dust deposition events on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains derived from a snow pit and a shallow firn core is presented for the 2009–2012 period. A combination of isotopic analysis, SEVIRI red-green-blue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived using the HYSPLIT model and analyses of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (ca. 20–100 km) resolution. Seventeen dust deposition events were detected; fourteen occurred in March–June, one in February and two in October. Four events originated in the Sahara, predominantly in northeastern Libya and eastern Algeria. Thirteen events originated in the Middle East, in the Syrian Desert and northern Mesopotamia, from a mixture of natural and anthropogenic sources. Dust transportation from Sahara was associated with vigorous Saharan depressions, strong surface winds in the source region and mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow with daily winds speeds of 20–30 m s −1 at 700 hPa level. Although these events were less frequent than those originating in the Middle East, they resulted in higher dust concentrations in snow. Dust transportation from the Middle East was associated with weaker depressions forming over the source region, high pressure centred over or extending towards the Caspian Sea and a weaker southerly or southeasterly flow towards the Caucasus Mountains with daily wind speeds of 12–18 m s −1 at 700 hPa level. Higher concentrations of nitrates and ammonium characterised dust from the Middle East deposited on Mt. Elbrus in 2009 indicating contribution of anthropogenic sources. The modal values of particle size distributions ranged between 1.98 μm and 4.16 μm. Most samples were characterised by modal values of 2.0–2.8 μm with an average of 2.6 μm and there was no significant difference between dust from the Sahara and the Middle East.

Description: Changes in glacier equilibrium-line altitude in the western Alps from 1984 to 2010: evaluation by remote sensing and modeling of the morpho-topographic and climate controls The Cryosphere, 7, 1455-1471, 2013 Author(s): A. Rabatel, A. Letréguilly, J.-P. Dedieu, and N. Eckert We present time series of equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) measured from the end-of-summer snow line altitude computed using satellite images, for 43 glaciers in the western Alps over the 1984–2010 period. More than 120 satellite images acquired by Landsat, SPOT and ASTER were used. In parallel, changes in climate variables, summer cumulative positive degree days (CPDD) and winter precipitation, were analyzed over the same time period using 22 weather stations located inside and around the study area. Assuming a continuous linear trend over the study period: (1) the average ELA of the 43 glaciers increased by about 170 m; (2) summer CPDD increased by about 150 PDD at 3000 m a.s.l.; and (3) winter precipitation remained rather stationary. Summer CPDD showed homogeneous spatial and temporal variability; winter precipitation showed homogeneous temporal variability, but some stations showed a slightly different spatial pattern. Regarding ELAs, temporal variability between the 43 glaciers was also homogeneous, but spatially, glaciers in the southern part of the study area differed from glaciers in the northern part, mainly due to a different precipitation pattern. A sensitivity analysis of the ELAs to climate and morpho-topographic variables (elevation, aspect, latitude) highlighted the following: (1) the average ELA over the study period of each glacier is strongly controlled by morpho-topographic variables; and (2) the interannual variability of the ELA is strongly controlled by climate variables, with the observed increasing trend mainly driven by increasing temperatures, even if significant nonlinear, low-frequency fluctuations appear to be driven by winter precipitation anomalies. Finally, we used an expansion of Lliboutry's approach to reconstruct fluctuations in the ELA of any glacier of the study area with respect to morpho-topographic and climate variables, by quantifying their respective weight and the related uncertainties in a consistent manner within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. This method was tested and validated using the ELA measured on the satellite images.

Description: Integrating spatial, temporal, and size probabilities for the annual landslide hazard maps in the Shihmen watershed, Taiwan Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2353-2367, 2013 Author(s): C. Y. Wu and S. C. Chen Landslide spatial, temporal, and size probabilities were used to perform a landslide hazard assessment in this study. Eleven intrinsic geomorphological, and two extrinsic rainfall factors were evaluated as landslide susceptibility related factors as they related to the success rate curves, landslide ratio plots, frequency distributions of landslide and non-landslide groups, as well as probability–probability plots. Data on landslides caused by Typhoon Aere in the Shihmen watershed were selected to train the susceptibility model. The landslide area probability, based on the power law relationship between the landslide area and a noncumulative number, was analyzed using the Pearson type 5 probability density function. The exceedance probabilities of rainfall with various recurrence intervals, including 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 yr, were used to determine the temporal probabilities of the events. The study was conducted in the Shihmen watershed, which has an area of 760 km 2 and is one of the main water sources for northern Taiwan. The validation result of Typhoon Krosa demonstrated that this landslide hazard model could be used to predict the landslide probabilities. The results suggested that integration of spatial, area, and exceedance probabilities to estimate the annual probability of each slope unit is feasible. The advantage of this annual landslide probability model lies in its ability to estimate the annual landslide risk, instead of a scenario-based risk.

Description: On the puzzling feature of the silence of precursory electromagnetic emissions Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2381-2397, 2013 Author(s): K. Eftaxias, S. M. Potirakis, and T. Chelidze It has been suggested that fracture-induced MHz–kHz electromagnetic emissions (EME), which emerge from a few days up to a few hours before the main seismic shock occurrence permit a real-time monitoring of the damage process during the last stages of earthquake preparation, as it happens at the laboratory scale. Despite fairly abundant evidence, electromagnetic (EM) precursors have not been adequately accepted as credible physical phenomena. These negative views are enhanced by the fact that certain "puzzling features" are repetitively observed in candidate fracture-induced pre-seismic EME. More precisely, EM silence in all frequency bands appears before the main seismic shock occurrence, as well as during the aftershock period. Actually, the view that "acceptance of "precursive" EM signals without convincing co-seismic signals should not be expected" seems to be reasonable. In this work we focus on this point. We examine whether the aforementioned features of EM silence are really puzzling ones or, instead, reflect well-documented characteristic features of the fracture process, in terms of universal structural patterns of the fracture process, recent laboratory experiments, numerical and theoretical studies of fracture dynamics, critical phenomena, percolation theory, and micromechanics of granular materials. Our analysis shows that these features should not be considered puzzling.

Description: A note on the water budget of temperate glaciers The Cryosphere, 7, 1557-1564, 2013 Author(s): J. Oerlemans In this note, the total dissipative melting in temperate glaciers is studied. The analysis is based on the notion that the dissipation is determined by the loss of potential energy due to the downward motion of mass (ice, snow, meltwater and rain). A mathematical formulation of the dissipation is developed and applied to a simple glacier geometry. In the next step, meltwater production resulting from enhanced ice motion during a glacier surge is calculated. The amount of melt energy available follows directly from the lowering of the centre of gravity of the glacier. To illustrate the concept, schematic calculations are presented for a number of glaciers with different geometric characteristics. Typical dissipative melt rates, expressed as water-layer depth averaged over the glacier, range from a few centimetres per year for smaller glaciers to half a metre per year for Franz Josef Glacier, one of the most active glaciers in the world (in terms of mass turnover). The total generation of meltwater during a surge is typically half a metre. For Variegated Glacier a value of 70 cm is found, for Kongsvegen 20 cm. These values refer to water layer depth averaged over the entire glacier. The melt \textit{rate} depends on the duration of the surge. It is generally an order of magnitude greater than water production by `normal' dissipation. On the other hand, the additional basal melt rate during a surge is comparable in magnitude with the water input from meltwater and precipitation. This suggests that enhanced melting during a surge does not grossly change the total water budget of a glacier. Basal water generated by enhanced sliding is an important ingredient in many theories of glacier surges. It provides a positive feedback mechanism that actually makes the surge happen. The results found here suggest that this can only work if water generated by enhanced sliding accumulates in a part of the glacier base where surface meltwater and rain have no or very limited access. This finding seems compatible with the fact that, on many glaciers, surges are initiated in the lower accumulation zone.

Description: Influence of the terrestrial magnetic field geometry on the cutoff rigidity of cosmic ray particles Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1637-1643, 2013 Author(s): K. Herbst, A. Kopp, and B. Heber Studies of the propagation of charged energetic particles in the Earth's magnetic field go back to Carl Størmer. In the end, his investigations finally lead to the definition of the so-called cutoff rigidity R C ; that is, the minimum momentum per charge a particle must have in order to reach a certain geographical location. Employing Monte Carlo simulations with the PLANETOCOSMICS code we investigate the correlation between the geomagnetic field structure and the cutoff rigidity. We show that the geometry of the magnetic field has a considerable influence on the resulting cutoff rigidity distribution. Furthermore, we will present a simple geometry-based parameter, δ B , which is able to reflect the location-dependent cutoff rigidity. We show that this correlation is also visible in the temporal evolution of the Earth's magnetic field, at least over the last 100 yr. Using latitude scans with neutron monitors, changes of the relative counting rates at different positions are calculated, showing small variations for, e.g., Kiel and Moscow, while large ones occur at Mexico City as well as on the British Virgin Islands.

Description: Electron acceleration at Jupiter: input from cyclotron-resonant interaction with whistler-mode chorus waves Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1619-1630, 2013 Author(s): E. E. Woodfield, R. B. Horne, S. A. Glauert, J. D. Menietti, and Y. Y. Shprits Jupiter has the most intense radiation belts of all the outer planets. It is not yet known how electrons can be accelerated to energies of 10 MeV or more. It has been suggested that cyclotron-resonant wave-particle interactions by chorus waves could accelerate electrons to a few MeV near the orbit of Io. Here we use the chorus wave intensities observed by the Galileo spacecraft to calculate the changes in electron flux as a result of pitch angle and energy diffusion. We show that, when the bandwidth of the waves and its variation with L are taken into account, pitch angle and energy diffusion due to chorus waves is a factor of 8 larger at L -shells greater than 10 than previously shown. We have used the latitudinal wave intensity profile from Galileo data to model the time evolution of the electron flux using the British Antarctic Survey Radiation Belt (BAS) model. This profile confines intense chorus waves near the magnetic equator with a peak intensity at ∼5° latitude. Electron fluxes in the BAS model increase by an order of magnitude for energies around 3 MeV. Extending our results to L = 14 shows that cyclotron-resonant interactions with chorus waves are equally important for electron acceleration beyond L = 10. These results suggest that there is significant electron acceleration by cyclotron-resonant interactions at Jupiter contributing to the creation of Jupiter's radiation belts and also increasing the range of L -shells over which this mechanism should be considered.

Description: The coupling between the solar wind and proton fluxes at GEO Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1631-1636, 2013 Author(s): R. J. Boynton, S. A. Billings, O. A. Amariutei, and I. Moiseenko The relationship between the solar wind and the proton flux at geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) is investigated using the error reduction ratio (ERR) analysis. The ERR analysis is able to search for the most appropriate inputs that control the evolution of the system. This approach is a black box method and is able to derive a mathematical model of a system from input-output data. This method is used to analyse eight energy ranges of the proton flux at GEO from 80 keV to 14.5 MeV. The inputs to the algorithm were solar wind velocity, density and pressure; the Dst index; the solar energetic proton (SEP) flux; and a function of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) tangential magnitude and clock angle. The results show that for lowest five energy channels (80 to 800 keV) the GEO proton fluxes are controlled by the solar wind velocity with a lag of two to three days. However, above 350 keV, the SEP fluxes, accounts for a significant portion of the GEO proton flux variance. For the highest three energy channels (0.74 to 14.5 MeV), the SEPs account for the majority of the ERR. The results also show an anisotropy of protons with gyrocenters inside GEO and outside GEO, where the protons inside GEO are controlled partly by the Dst index and also an IMF-clock angle function.

Description: Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties The Cryosphere, 7, 1565-1577, 2013 Author(s): S. H. Mernild, W. H. Lipscomb, D. B. Bahr, V. Radić, and M. Zemp Most glaciers and ice caps (GIC) are out of balance with the current climate. To return to equilibrium, GIC must thin and retreat, losing additional mass and raising sea level. Because glacier observations are sparse and geographically biased, there is an undersampling problem common to all global assessments. Here, we further develop an assessment approach based on accumulation-area ratios (AAR) to estimate committed mass losses and analyze the undersampling problem. We compiled all available AAR observations for 144 GIC from 1971 to 2010, and found that most glaciers and ice caps are farther from balance than previously believed. Accounting for regional and global undersampling errors, our model suggests that GIC are committed to additional losses of 32 ± 12% of their area and 38 ± 16% of their volume if the future climate resembles the climate of the past decade. These losses imply global mean sea-level rise of 163 ± 69 mm, assuming total glacier volume of 430 mm sea-level equivalent. To reduce the large uncertainties in these projections, more long-term glacier measurements are needed in poorly sampled regions.

Description: Early warning of snow-caused disasters in pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1411-1425, 2013 Author(s): W. Wang, T. Liang, X. Huang, Q. Feng, H. Xie, X. Liu, M. Chen, and X. Wang This study develops a model for early warning of snow-caused livestock disasters on a county basis and proposes a method of qualitative risk assessment of snow disasters at 500 m resolution for pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Data used for the model development include remote sensing data, statistical data of weather, livestock, and social economy, and 45 typical snow disaster cases from 2000 to 2010. The principal component analysis (PCA) approach is used to choose 7 crucial factors that contribute over 85% of information for early warning snow disasters on the TP. They are mean annual probability of snow disaster, number of snow-covered days, livestock stocking rate, continual days of mean daily temperature below −10 °C, grassland burial index, rate of snow-covered grassland, and per livestock gross domestic product. The chosen 411 cases from 2008 to 2010 are used to validate the prediction results from the developed early warning model, with an overall accuracy of 85.64% in predicting snow disasters and no disasters. This suggests that the early warning approach developed in the study has operational potential for predicting snow disasters on the TP.

Description: How much does participatory flood management contribute to stakeholders' social capacity building? Empirical findings based on a triangulation of three evaluation approaches Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1427-1444, 2013 Author(s): M. Buchecker, S. Menzel, and R. Home Recent literature suggests that dialogic forms of risk communication are more effective to build stakeholders' hazard-related social capacities. In spite of the high theoretical expectations, there is a lack of univocal empirical evidence on the relevance of these effects. This is mainly due to the methodological limitations of the existing evaluation approaches. In our paper we aim at eliciting the contribution of participatory river revitalisation projects on stakeholders' social capacity building by triangulating the findings of three evaluation studies that were based on different approaches: a field-experimental, a qualitative long-term ex-post and a cross-sectional household survey approach. The results revealed that social learning and avoiding the loss of trust were more relevant benefits of participatory flood management than acceptance building. The results suggest that stakeholder involvements should be more explicitly designed as tools for long-term social learning.

Description: A statistical study on O + flux in the dayside magnetosheath Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1005-1010, 2013 Author(s): R. Slapak, H. Nilsson, and L. G. Westerberg Studies on terrestrial oxygen ion (O + ) escape into the interplanetary space have considered a number of different escape paths. Recent observations however suggest a yet insufficiently investigated additional escape route for hot O + : along open magnetic field lines in the high altitude cusp and mantle. Here we present a statistical study on O + flux in the high-latitude dayside magnetosheath. The O + is generally seen relatively close to the magnetopause, consistent with observations of O + flowing primarily tangentially to the magnetopause. We estimate the total escape flux in this region to be ~ 7 × 10 24 s −1 , implying this escape route to significantly contribute to the overall total O + loss into interplanetary space.

Description: Stakeholders' issues for action during the warning process and the interpretation of forecasts' uncertainties Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1469-1479, 2013 Author(s): L. Créton-Cazanave and C. Lutoff This article considers the socio-geographical approach carried out as part of the MedUp program. It presents a study of the ways that the French "actors" manage forecast uncertainties during a flash flood warning process. In order to better understand the role of forecasts' uncertainties in decision making, we focused on the actions people took and how what they say explains their actions. The practices of actors involved in warnings for the Vidourle watershed (Gard, France), in particular, are analyzed using a practice-based approach. A set of categories of the "actors" was developed based on their descriptions of the problems they faced during the flash flood warning, independent of their socio-professional status and position in the warning chain. Five actor profiles result from this: Translators, Managers, Committed, Navigators and Vulnerable. For each profile, specific action contexts are defined, determining how each deals with uncertainty.

Description: Augmenting Austrian flood management practices through geospatial predictive analytics: a study in Carinthia Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1445-1455, 2013 Author(s): S. M. Ward and G. Paulus The Danube River basin has long been the location of significant flooding problems across central Europe. The last decade has seen a sharp increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of these flood events, unveiling a dire need for enhanced flood management policy and tools in the region. Located in the southern portion of Austria, the state of Carinthia has experienced a significant volume of intense flood impacts over the last decade. Although the Austrian government has acknowledged these issues, their remedial actions have been primarily structural to date. Continued focus on controlling the natural environment through infrastructure while disregarding the need to consider alternative forms of assessing flood exposure will only act as a provisional solution to this inescapable risk. In an attempt to remedy this flaw, this paper highlights the application of geospatial predictive analytics and spatial recovery index as a proxy for community resilience, as well as the cultural challenges associated with the application of foreign models within an Austrian environment.

Description: Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate Annales Geophysicae, 31, 995-1004, 2013 Author(s): Y. Wang, X. Yan, and Z. Wang In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07–0.14 °C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 °C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 °C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation.

Description: Recent changes in spring snowmelt timing in the Yukon River basin detected by passive microwave satellite data The Cryosphere, 7, 905-916, 2013 Author(s): K. A. Semmens and J. M. Ramage Spring melt is a significant feature of high latitude snowmelt dominated drainage basins influencing hydrological and ecological processes such as snowmelt runoff and green-up. Melt duration, defined as the transition period from snowmelt onset until the end of the melt refreeze, is characterized by high diurnal amplitude variations (DAV) where the snowpack is melting during the day and refreezing at night, after which the snowpack melts constantly until depletion. Determining trends for this critical period is necessary for understanding how the Arctic is changing with rising temperatures and provides a baseline from which to assess future change. To study this dynamic period, brightness temperature ( T b ) data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) 37 V-GHz frequency from 1988 to 2010 were used to assess snowmelt timing trends for the Yukon River basin, Alaska/Canada. Annual T b and DAV for 1434 Equal-Area Scalable Earth (EASE)-Grid pixels (25 km resolution) were processed to determine melt onset and melt refreeze dates from T b and DAV thresholds previously established in the region. Temporal and spatial trends in the timing of melt onset and melt refreeze, and the duration of melt were analyzed for the 13 sub-basins of the Yukon River basin with three different time interval approaches. Results show a lengthening of the melt period for the majority of the sub-basins with a significant trend toward later end of melt refreeze after which the snowpack melts day and night leading to snow clearance, peak discharge, and green-up. Earlier melt onset trends were also found in the higher elevations and northernmost sub-basins (Porcupine, Chandalar, and Koyukuk rivers). Latitude and elevation displayed the dominant controls on melt timing variability and spring solar flux was highly correlated with melt timing in middle (∼600–1600 m) elevations.

Description: Seasonal controls on snow distribution and aerial ablation at the snow-patch and landscape scales, McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica The Cryosphere, 7, 917-931, 2013 Author(s): J. W. Eveland, M. N. Gooseff, D. J. Lampkin, J. E. Barrett, and C. D. Takacs-Vesbach Accumulated snow in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, while limited, has great ecological significance to subnivian soil environments. Though sublimation dominates the ablation process in this region, measurable increases in soil moisture and insulation from temperature extremes provide more favorable conditions with respect to subnivian soil communities. While precipitation is not substantial, significant amounts of snow can accumulate, via wind transport, in topographic lees along the valley bottoms, forming thousands of discontinuous snow patches. These patches have the potential to act as significant sources of local meltwater, controlling biogeochemical cycling and the landscape distribution of microbial communities. Therefore, determining the spatial and temporal dynamics of snow at multiple scales is imperative to understanding the broader ecological role of snow in this region. High-resolution satellite imagery acquired during the 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 austral summers was used to quantify the distribution of snow across Taylor and Wright valleys. Extracted snow-covered area from the imagery was used as the basis for assessing inter-annual variability and seasonal controls on accumulation and ablation of snow at multiple scales. In addition to landscape analyses, fifteen 1 km 2 plots (3 in each of 5 study regions) were selected to assess the prevalence of snow cover at finer spatial scales, referred to herein as the snow-patch scale. Results confirm that snow patches tend to form in the same locations each year with some minor deviations observed. At the snow-patch scale, neighboring patches often exhibit considerable differences in aerial ablation rates, and particular snow patches do not reflect trends for snow-covered area observed at the landscape scale. These differences are presumably related to microtopographic influences acting on individual snow patches, such as wind sheltering and differences in snow depth due to the underlying topography. This highlights the importance of both the landscape and snow-patch scales in assessing the effects of snow cover on biogeochemical cycling and microbial communities.

Description: IMF effect on the polar cap contraction and expansion during a period of substorms Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1021-1034, 2013 Author(s): A. T. Aikio, T. Pitkänen, I. Honkonen, M. Palmroth, and O. Amm The polar cap boundary (PCB) location and motion in the nightside ionosphere has been studied by using measurements from the EISCAT radars and the MIRACLE magnetometers during a period of four substorms on 18 February 2004. The OMNI database has been used for observations of the solar wind and the Geotail satellite for magnetospheric measurements. In addition, the event was modelled by the GUMICS-4 MHD simulation. The simulation of the PCB location was in a rather good agreement with the experimental estimates at the EISCAT longitude. During the first three substorm expansion phases, neither the local observations nor the global simulation showed any poleward motions of the PCB, even though the electrojets intensified. Rapid poleward motions of the PCB took place only in the early recovery phases of the substorms. Hence, in these cases the nightside reconnection rate was locally higher in the recovery phase than in the expansion phase. In addition, we suggest that the IMF B z component correlated with the nightside tail inclination angle and the PCB location with about a 17-min delay from the bow shock. By taking the delay into account, the IMF northward turnings were associated with dipolarizations of the magnetotail and poleward motions of the PCB in the recovery phase. The mechanism behind this effect should be studied further.

Description: A comparison of bow shock models with Cluster observations during low Alfvén Mach number magnetic clouds Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1011-1019, 2013 Author(s): L. Turc, D. Fontaine, P. Savoini, H. Hietala, and E. K. J. Kilpua Magnetic clouds (MCs) are very geoeffective solar wind structures. Their properties in the interplanetary medium have been extensively studied, yet little is known about their characteristics in the Earth's magnetosheath. The Cluster spacecraft offer the opportunity to observe MCs in the magnetosheath, but before MCs reach the magnetosphere, their structure is altered when they interact with the terrestrial bow shock (BS). The physics taking place at the BS strongly depends on Θ Bn , the angle between the shock normal and the interplanetary magnetic field. However, in situ observations of the BS during an MC's crossing are seldom available. In order to relate magnetosheath observations to solar wind conditions, we need to rely on a model to determine the shock's position and normal direction. Yet during MCs, the models tend to be less accurate, because the Alfvén Mach number ( M A ) is often significantly lower than in regular solar wind. On the contrary, the models are generally optimised for high M A conditions. In this study, we compare the predictions of four widely used models available in the literature (Wu et al., 2000; Chapman and Cairns, 2003; Jeřáb et al., 2005; Měrka et al., 2005b) to Cluster's dayside BS crossings observed during five MC events. Our analysis shows that the Θ Bn angle is well predicted by all four models. On the other hand, the Jeřáb et al. (2005) model yields the best estimates of the BS position during low M A MCs. The other models locate the BS either too far from or too close to Earth. The results of this paper can be directly used to estimate the BS parameters in all studies of MC interaction with Earth's magnetosphere.

Description: CDRD and PNPR satellite passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithms: EuroTRMM/EURAINSAT origins and H-SAF operations Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 887-912, 2013 Author(s): A. Mugnai, E. A. Smith, G. J. Tripoli, B. Bizzarri, D. Casella, S. Dietrich, F. Di Paola, G. Panegrossi, and P. Sanò Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) is a EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) program, designed to deliver satellite products of hydrological interest (precipitation, soil moisture and snow parameters) over the European and Mediterranean region to research and operations users worldwide. Six satellite precipitation algorithms and concomitant precipitation products are the responsibility of various agencies in Italy. Two of these algorithms have been designed for maximum accuracy by restricting their inputs to measurements from conical and cross-track scanning passive microwave (PMW) radiometers mounted on various low Earth orbiting satellites. They have been developed at the Italian National Research Council/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate in Rome (CNR/ISAC-Rome), and are providing operational retrievals of surface rain rate and its phase properties. Each of these algorithms is physically based, however, the first of these, referred to as the Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database (CDRD) algorithm, uses a Bayesian-based solution solver, while the second, referred to as the PMW Neural-net Precipitation Retrieval (PNPR) algorithm, uses a neural network-based solution solver. Herein we first provide an overview of the two initial EU research and applications programs that motivated their initial development, EuroTRMM and EURAINSAT (European Satellite Rainfall Analysis and Monitoring at the Geostationary Scale), and the current H-SAF program that provides the framework for their operational use and continued development. We stress the relevance of the CDRD and PNPR algorithms and their precipitation products in helping secure the goals of H-SAF's scientific and operations agenda, the former helpful as a secondary calibration reference to other algorithms in H-SAF's complete mix of algorithms. Descriptions of the algorithms' designs are provided including a few examples of their performance. This aspect of the development of the two algorithms is placed in the context of what we refer to as the TRMM era, which is the era denoting the active and ongoing period of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) that helped inspire their original development. In 2015, the ISAC-Rome precipitation algorithms will undergo a transformation beginning with the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, particularly the GPM Core Satellite technologies. A few years afterward, the first pair of imaging and sounding Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satellites will be launched, providing additional technological advances. Various of the opportunities presented by the GPM Core and MTG satellites for improving the current CDRD and PNPR precipitation retrieval algorithms, as well as extending their product capability, are discussed.

Description: Investigation of radiative effects of the optically thick dust layer over the Indian tropical region Annales Geophysicae, 31, 647-663, 2013 Author(s): S. K. Das, J.-P. Chen, M. Venkat Ratnam, and A. Jayaraman Optical and physical properties of aerosols derived from multi-satellite observations (MODIS-Aqua, OMI-Aura, MISR-Terra, CALIOP-CALIPSO) have been used to estimate radiative effects of the dust layer over southern India. The vertical distribution of aerosol radiative forcing and heating rates are calculated with 100 m resolution in the lower atmosphere, using temperature and relative humidity data from balloon-borne radiosonde observations. The present study investigates the optically thick dust layer of optical thickness 0.18 ± 0.06 at an altitude of 2.5 ± 0.7 km over Gadanki, transported from the Thar Desert, producing radiative forcing and heating rate of 11.5 ± 3.3 W m −2 and 0.6 ± 0.26 K day −1 , respectively, with a forcing efficiency of 43 W m −2 and an effective heating rate of 4 K day −1 per unit dust optical depth. Presence of the dust layer increases radiative forcing by 60% and heating rate by 60 times at that altitude compared to non-dusty cloud-free days. Calculation shows that the radiative effects of the dust layer strongly depend on the boundary layer aerosol type and mass loading. An increase of 25% of heating by the dust layer is found over relatively cleaner regions than urban regions in southern India and further 15% of heating increases over the marine region. Such heating differences in free troposphere may have significant consequences in the atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle over the tropical Indian region.

Description: Ice-shelf buttressing and the stability of marine ice sheets The Cryosphere, 7, 647-655, 2013 Author(s): G. H. Gudmundsson Ice-shelf buttressing and the stability of marine-type ice sheets are investigated numerically. Buttressing effects are analysed for a situation where a stable grounding line is located on a bed sloping upwards in the direction of flow. Such grounding-line positions are known to be unconditionally unstable in the absence of transverse flow variations. It is shown that ice-shelf buttressing can restore stability under these conditions. Ice flux at the grounding line is, in general, not a monotonically increasing function of ice thickness. This, possibly at first somewhat counterintuitive result, is found to be fully consistent with recent theoretical work. Grounding lines on retrograde slopes are conditionally stable, and the stability regime is a non-trivial function of bed and ice-shelf geometry. The stability of grounding lines cannot be assessed from considerations of local bed slope only.

Description: Evidence and analysis of 2012 Greenland records from spaceborne observations, a regional climate model and reanalysis data The Cryosphere, 7, 615-630, 2013 Author(s): M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, T. Mote, J. Wahr, P. Alexander, J. E. Box, and B. Wouters A combined analysis of remote sensing observations, regional climate model (RCM) outputs and reanalysis data over the Greenland ice sheet provides evidence that multiple records were set during summer 2012. Melt extent was the largest in the satellite era (extending up to ∼97% of the ice sheet) and melting lasted up to ∼2 months longer than the 1979–2011 mean. Model results indicate that near surface temperature was ∼3 standard deviations (σ) above the 1958–2011 mean, while surface mass balance (SMB) was ∼3σ below the mean and runoff was 3.9σ above the mean over the same period. Albedo, exposure of bare ice and surface mass balance also set new records, as did the total mass balance with summer and annual mass changes of, respectively, −627 Gt and −574 Gt, 2σ below the 2003–2012 mean. We identify persistent anticyclonic conditions over Greenland associated with anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), changes in surface conditions (e.g., albedo, surface temperature) and preconditioning of surface properties from recent extreme melting as major driving mechanisms for the 2012 records. Less positive if not increasingly negative SMB will likely occur should these characteristics persist.

Description: Balanced conditions or slight mass gain of glaciers in the Lahaul and Spiti region (northern India, Himalaya) during the nineties preceded recent mass loss The Cryosphere, 7, 569-582, 2013 Author(s): C. Vincent, Al. Ramanathan, P. Wagnon, D. P. Dobhal, A. Linda, E. Berthier, P. Sharma, Y. Arnaud, M. F. Azam, P. G. Jose, and J. Gardelle The volume change of the Chhota Shigri Glacier (India, 32° 20 N, 77° 30' E) between 1988 and 2010 has been determined using in situ geodetic measurements. This glacier has experienced only a slight mass loss between 1988 and 2010 (−3.8 ± 2.0 m w.e. (water equivalent) corresponding to −0.17 ± 0.09 m w.e. yr −1 ). Using satellite digital elevation models (DEM) differencing and field measurements, we measure a negative mass balance (MB) between 1999 and 2010 (−4.8 ± 1.8 m w.e. corresponding to −0.44 ± 0.16 m w.e. yr −1 ). Thus, we deduce a slightly positive or near-zero MB between 1988 and 1999 (+1.0 ± 2.7 m w.e. corresponding to +0.09 ± 0.24 m w.e. yr −1 ). Furthermore, satellite DEM differencing reveals that the MB of the Chhota Shigri Glacier (−0.39 ± 0.15 m w.e. yr −1 ) has been only slightly less negative than the MB of a 2110 km 2 glaciarized area in the Lahaul and Spiti region (−0.44 ± 0.09 m w.e. yr −1 ) during 1999−2011. Hence, we conclude that the ice wastage is probably moderate in this region over the last 22 yr, with near equilibrium conditions during the nineties, and an ice mass loss after. The turning point from balanced to negative mass budget is not known but lies probably in the late nineties and at the latest in 1999. This positive or near-zero MB for Chhota Shigri Glacier (and probably for the surrounding glaciers of the Lahaul and Spiti region) during at least part of the 1990s contrasts with a recent compilation of MB data in the Himalayan range that indicated ice wastage since 1975. However, in agreement with this compilation, we confirm more negative balances since the beginning of the 21st century.

Description: Low level jet intensification by mineral dust aerosols Annales Geophysicae, 31, 625-632, 2013 Author(s): O. Alizadeh Choobari, P. Zawar-Reza, and A. Sturman Modification of the intensity of a low level jet (LLJ) and near-surface wind speed by mineral dust is important as it has implications for dust emission and its long-range transport. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) regional model, it is shown that direct radiative forcing by mineral dust reduces temperature in the lower atmosphere, but increases it in the layers aloft. The surface cooling is shown to be associated with a reduction of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and hence vertical mixing of horizontal momentum. Changes in the vertical profile of temperature over the regions that are under the influence of a LLJ are shown to result in an intensification of the LLJ and near-surface wind speed, but a decrease of winds aloft. These changes in the wind speed profile differ from results of previous research which suggested a decrease of wind speed in the lower atmosphere and its increase in the upper boundary layer.

Description: Parametric validations of analytical lifetime estimates for radiation belt electron diffusion by whistler waves Annales Geophysicae, 31, 599-624, 2013 Author(s): A. V. Artemyev, D. Mourenas, O. V. Agapitov, and V. V. Krasnoselskikh The lifetimes of electrons trapped in Earth's radiation belts can be calculated from quasi-linear pitch-angle diffusion by whistler-mode waves, provided that their frequency spectrum is broad enough and/or their average amplitude is not too large. Extensive comparisons between improved analytical lifetime estimates and full numerical calculations have been performed in a broad parameter range representative of a large part of the magnetosphere from L ~ 2 to 6. The effects of observed very oblique whistler waves are taken into account in both numerical and analytical calculations. Analytical lifetimes (and pitch-angle diffusion coefficients) are found to be in good agreement with full numerical calculations based on CRRES and Cluster hiss and lightning-generated wave measurements inside the plasmasphere and Cluster lower-band chorus waves measurements in the outer belt for electron energies ranging from 100 keV to 5 MeV. Comparisons with lifetimes recently obtained from electron flux measurements on SAMPEX, SCATHA, SAC-C and DEMETER also show reasonable agreement.

Description: Coherent amplitude modulation of electron-beam-driven Langmuir waves Annales Geophysicae, 31, 633-638, 2013 Author(s): K. Baumgärtel A linear approach to the phenomenon of irregular amplitude modulation of beam-driven Langmuir waves, developed in a previous paper, is extended to explain periodic modulation as well. It comes about by beating of the fastest growing mode of the instability with beam-aligned plasma oscillations. They are naturally generated in a uniform domain of beam–plasma interaction prior to the onset of the instability. Particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations support the results of the linear analysis.

Description: The geomorphological effect of cornice fall avalanches in the Longyeardalen valley, Svalbard The Cryosphere, 7, 1361-1374, 2013 Author(s): M. Eckerstorfer, H. H. Christiansen, L. Rubensdotter, and S. Vogel The study of snow avalanches and their geomorphological effect in the periglacial parts of the cryosphere is important for enhanced geomorphological process understanding as well as hazard-related studies. Only a few field studies, and particularly few in the High Arctic, have quantified avalanche sedimentation. Snow avalanches are traditionally ranked behind rockfall in terms of their significance for mass-wasting processes of rockslopes. Cornice fall avalanches are at present the most dominant snow avalanche type at two slope systems, called Nybyen and Larsbreen, in the valley Longyeardalen in central Svalbard. Both slope systems are on northwest-facing lee slopes underneath a large summit plateau, with annual cornices forming on the top. High-frequency and magnitude cornice fall avalanching is observed by daily automatic time-lapse photography. In addition, rock debris sedimentation by cornice fall avalanches was measured directly in permanent sediment traps or by snow inventories. The results from a maximum of seven years of measurements in a total of 13 catchments show maximum mean rock debris sedimentation rates ranging from 8.2 to 38.7 kg m −2 at Nybyen, and from 0.8 to 55.4 kg m −2 at Larsbreen. Correspondingly, avalanche fan surfaces accreted from 2.6 to 8.8 mm yr −1 at Nybyen, and from 0.2 to 13.9 mm yr −1 at Larsbreen. This comparably efficient rockslope mass wasting is due to collapsing cornices producing cornice fall avalanches containing large amounts of rock debris throughout the entire winter. The rock debris of different origin stems from the plateau crests, the adjacent free rock face and the transport pathway, accumulating distinct avalanche fans at both slope systems. Cornice fall avalanche sedimentation also contributed to the development of a rock glacier at the Larsbreen site during the Holocene. We have recorded present maximum rockwall retreat rates of 0.9 mm yr −1 at Nybyen, but as much as 6.7 mm yr −1 at Larsbreen, while average Holocene rockwall retreat rates of 1.1 mm yr −1 at Nybyen have been determined earlier. As cornice fall avalanches are the dominant type of avalanche in central Svalbard, the related geomorphological effect is assumed to be of significance at periglacial landscape scale. A climate-induced shift in prevailing winter wind direction could change the rockslope sedimentation effectively by changing the snow avalanche activity.

Description: Seasonal variation of the ion upflow in the topside ionosphere during SAPS (subauroral polarization stream) periods Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1521-1534, 2013 Author(s): H. Wang and H. Lühr A statistical study has been performed by using two years of DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) plasma observations to investigate the seasonal effect of SAPS (subauroral polarization stream) on the ion upflow in the duskside ionosphere of the Northern Hemisphere. There are obvious upflows occurring in the topside ionosphere around the SAPS region, exceeding 200 m s −1 at winter solstice, indicating an important relationship between SAPS and the local plasma upward motion. Both SAPS and ion upward velocities show similar seasonal variations, largest in winter and smallest in summer, irrespective of geomagnetic activity. A good correlation is found and a linear relationship is derived between SAPS and the ion upflow velocities. During December solstice the average upflow flux can reach about 2 × 10 8 cm −2 s −1 for more disturbed periods, which is comparable to the typical upflow flux in the dayside cusp region. The depression of the ion temperatures around the peak SAPS region can be understood in terms of the adiabatic cooling. The hot ion cools down when expanding into the low ion concentration region. The electron temperature elevates around the SAPS region because of the reduced Coulomb cooling in the low ion density region. Both the changes of ion and electron temperatures are larger in winter than in summer, however, for Kp 〈 4 the electron temperatures are almost seasonably independent. The present work highlights the important role of the SAPS-related frictional heating at mid-latitudes on the local formation of the strong upward flow, which might provide a direct ionospheric ion source for the ring current and plasmasphere in the duskside sector.

Description: Magnetic field generation in a jet-sheath plasma via the kinetic Kelvin-Helmholtz instability Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1535-1541, 2013 Author(s): K.-I. Nishikawa, P. Hardee, B. Zhang, I. Duţan, M. Medvedev, E. J. Choi, K. W. Min, J. Niemiec, Y. Mizuno, A. Nordlund, J. T. Frederiksen, H. Sol, M. Pohl, and D. H. Hartmann We have investigated the generation of magnetic fields associated with velocity shear between an unmagnetized relativistic jet and an unmagnetized sheath plasma. We have examined the strong magnetic fields generated by kinetic shear (Kelvin–Helmholtz) instabilities. Compared to the previous studies using counter-streaming performed by Alves et al. (2012), the structure of the kinetic Kelvin–Helmholtz instability (KKHI) of our jet-sheath configuration is slightly different, even for the global evolution of the strong transverse magnetic field. In our simulations the major components of growing modes are the electric field E z , perpendicular to the flow boundary, and the magnetic field B y , transverse to the flow direction. After the B y component is excited, an induced electric field E x , parallel to the flow direction, becomes significant. However, other field components remain small. We find that the structure and growth rate of KKHI with mass ratios m i / m e = 1836 and m i / m e = 20 are similar. In our simulations saturation in the nonlinear stage is not as clear as in counter-streaming cases. The growth rate for a mildly-relativistic jet case (γ j = 1.5) is larger than for a relativistic jet case (γ j = 15).

Description: Ionospheric response to total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 in different Indian regions Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1549-1558, 2013 Author(s): S. Kumar, A. K. Singh, and R. P. Singh The variability of ionospheric response to the total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 has been studied analyzing the GPS data recorded at the four Indian low-latitude stations Varanasi (100% obscuration), Kanpur (95% obscuration), Hyderabad (84% obscuration) and Bangalore (72% obscuration). The retrieved ionospheric vertical total electron content (VTEC) shows a significant reduction (reflected by all PRNs (satellites) at all stations) with a maximum of 48% at Varanasi (PRN 14), which decreases to 30% at Bangalore (PRN 14). Data from PRN 31 show a maximum of 54% at Kanpur and 26% at Hyderabad. The maximum decrement in VTEC occurs some time (2–15 min) after the maximum obscuration. The reduction in VTEC compared to the quiet mean VTEC depends on latitude as well as longitude, which also depends on the location of the satellite with respect to the solar eclipse path. The amount of reduction in VTEC decreases as the present obscuration decreases, which is directly related to the electron production by the photoionization process. The analysis of electron density height profile derived from the COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere & Climate) satellite over the Indian region shows significant reduction from 100 km altitude up to 800 km altitude with a maximum of 48% at 360 km altitude. The oscillatory nature in total electron content data at all stations is observed with different wave periods lying between 40 and 120 min, which are attributed to gravity wave effects generated in the lower atmosphere during the total solar eclipse.

Description: Influence of management of variables, sampling zones and land units on LR analysis for landslide spatial prevision Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2209-2221, 2013 Author(s): R. Greco and M. Sorriso-Valvo Several authors, according to different methodological approaches, have employed logistic Regression (LR), a multivariate statistical analysis adopted to assess the spatial probability of landslide, even though its fundamental principles have remained unaltered. This study aims at assessing the influence of some of these methodological approaches on the performance of LR, through a series of sensitivity analyses developed over a test area of about 300 km 2 in Calabria (southern Italy). In particular, four types of sampling (1 – the whole study area; 2 – transects running parallel to the general slope direction of the study area with a total surface of about 1/3 of the whole study area; 3 – buffers surrounding the phenomena with a 1/1 ratio between the stable and the unstable area; 4 – buffers surrounding the phenomena with a 1/2 ratio between the stable and the unstable area), two variable coding modes (1 – grouped variables; 2 – binary variables), and two types of elementary land (1 – cells units; 2 – slope units) units have been tested. The obtained results must be considered as statistically relevant in all cases (Aroc values 〉 70%), thus confirming the soundness of the LR analysis which maintains high predictive capacities notwithstanding the features of input data. As for the area under investigation, the best performing methodological choices are the following: (i) transects produced the best results (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 93.4%; Aroc = 79.5%); (ii) as for sampling modalities, binary variables (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 98.3%; Aroc = 80.7%) provide better performance than ordinated variables; (iii) as for the choice of elementary land units, slope units (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 100%; Aroc = 84.2%) have obtained better results than cells matrix.

Description: Risk evolution: how can changes in the built environment influence the potential loss of natural hazards? Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2195-2207, 2013 Author(s): B. Schwendtner, M. Papathoma-Köhle, and T. Glade Alpine areas often suffer significant loss and damage due to a range of natural processes such as landslides, debris flows, snow avalanches or floods. Sealing of the soil surface, settling in endangered areas and enhanced human intervention in the natural settings, as well as socio-economic changes, increase the risk and susceptibility of built environments to natural hazards and the costs of the consequences in a spatio-temporal context. The present study examines the loss estimation of a particular debris flow event for different points in time. The event occurred in August 1987, affected the municipality Martell in South Tyrol, Italy, and resulted in a total cost of € 25 million. The approach presented in this paper focuses on the changes of the land use and settlement expansion in the area since 1954 and attempts to assess the monetary impact of a similar event, which could have happened before (1954, 1985) or following the actual event (1992, 1999, 2006). The method applied is based on the use of a vulnerability curve which was developed for the specific area, based on the documentation of the damage of the 1987 event. Based on this curve, a loss estimation was carried out in order to visualise the risk evolution in a period of 52 yr (1954 to 2006). The results show a significant increase in the extent of the built environment (number, size and value of buildings) which consequently reflect an increase of the potential overall loss through the years. The method can be used in order to assess the potential loss for future scenarios based on different spatial patterns of the built environment.

Description: Wind shear over the Nice Côte d'Azur airport: case studies Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2223-2238, 2013 Author(s): A. Boilley and J.-F. Mahfouf The Nice Côte d'Azur international airport is subject to horizontal low-level wind shears. Detecting and predicting these hazards is a major concern for aircraft security. A measurement campaign took place over the Nice airport in 2009 including 4 anemometers, 1 wind lidar and 1 wind profiler. Two wind shear events were observed during this measurement campaign. Numerical simulations were carried out with Meso-NH in a configuration compatible with near-real time applications to determine the ability of the numerical model to predict these events and to study the meteorological situations generating an horizontal wind shear. A comparison between numerical simulation and the observation dataset is conducted in this paper.

Description: Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2239-2251, 2013 Author(s): M. L. R. Liberato, J. G. Pinto, R. M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, and I. F. Trigo In winter of 2009–2010 south-western Europe was hit by several destructive windstorms. The most important was Xynthia (26–28 February 2010), which caused 64 reported casualties and was classified as the 2nd most expensive natural hazard event for 2010 in terms of economic losses. In this work we assess the synoptic evolution, dynamical characteristics and the main impacts of storm Xynthia, whose genesis, development and path were very uncommon. Wind speed gusts observed at more than 500 stations across Europe are evaluated as well as the wind gust field obtained with a regional climate model simulation for the entire North Atlantic and European area. Storm Xynthia was first identified on 25 February around 30° N, 50° W over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Its genesis occurred on a region characterized by warm and moist air under the influence of a strong upper level wave embedded in the westerlies. Xynthia followed an unusual SW–NE path towards Iberia, France and central Europe. The role of moist air masses on the explosive development of Xynthia is analysed by considering the evaporative sources. A lagrangian model is used to identify the moisture sources, sinks and moisture transport associated with the cyclone during its development phase. The main supply of moisture is located over an elongated region of the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean with anomalously high SST, confirming that the explosive development of storm Xynthia had a significant contribution from the subtropics.

Description: Seismic behavior of buried pipelines constructed by design criteria and construction specifications of both Korea and the US Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2271-2278, 2013 Author(s): S.-S. Jeon Earthquake loss estimation systems in the US, for example HAZUS (Hazard in US), have been established based on sufficient damage records for the purpose of prevention and efficient response to earthquake hazards; however, in Korea, insufficient data sets of earthquakes and damage records are currently available. In this study, the earthquake damages to pipelines in Korea using the pipeline repair rate (RR) recommended in HAZUS was reevaluated with the degree of confidence when RR is used without modification for the damage estimation of pipelines in Korea. The numerical analyses using a commercial finite element model, ABAQUS, were carried out to compare stresses and strains mobilized in both brittle and ductile pipelines constructed by the design criteria and construction specifications of both Korea and the US. These pipelines were embedded in dense sand overlying three different in situ soils (clay, sand, and gravel) subjected to earthquake excitations with peak ground accelerations (PGAs) of 0.2 to 1.2 g and 1994 Northridge and 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake loadings. The numerical results show that differences in the stress and strain rates are less than 10%. This implies that RR in HAZUS can be used for earthquake damage estimation of pipelines with a 90% confidence level in Korea.

Description: Heterogeneity in glacier response in the upper Shyok valley, northeast Karakoram The Cryosphere, 7, 1385-1398, 2013 Author(s): R. Bhambri, T. Bolch, P. Kawishwar, D. P. Dobhal, D. Srivastava, and B. Pratap Glaciers in the Karakoram show long-term irregular behaviour with comparatively frequent and sudden advances. A glacier inventory of the upper Shyok valley situated in northeast Karakoram has been generated for the year 2002 using Landsat ETM+ and SRTM3 DEM as baseline data for the investigations and subsequent change analysis. The upper Shyok valley contained 2123 glaciers (larger than 0.02 km 2 in size) with an area of 2977.9 ± 95.3 km 2 in 2002. Out of these, 18 glaciers with an area of 1004.1 ± 32.1 km 2 showed surge-type behaviour. Change analysis based on Hexagon KH-9 (years 1973 and 1974) and Landsat TM/ETM+ (years 1989, 2002 and 2011) images had to be restricted to a subset of 136 glaciers (covering an area of 1609.7 ± 51.5 km 2 in 2002) due to adverse snow conditions. The area of the investigated glaciers, including the 18 surge-type glaciers identified, showed no significant changes during all studied periods. However, the analysis provides a hint that the overall glacier area slightly decreased until about 1989 (area 1973: 1613.6 ± 43.6 km 2 ; area 1989: 1602.0 ± 33.6 km 2 ) followed by an increase (area 2002: 1609.7 ± 51.5; area 2011: 1615.8 ± 35.5 km 2 ). Although the overall change in area is insignificant, advances in glacier tongues since the end of the 1980s are clearly visible. Detailed estimations of length changes for individual glaciers since the 1970s and for Central Rimo Glacier since the 1930s confirm the irregular retreat and advance.

Description: Weak layer fracture: facets and depth hoar The Cryosphere, 7, 1447-1453, 2013 Author(s): I. Reiweger and J. Schweizer Understanding failure initiation within weak snow layers is essential for modeling and predicting dry-snow slab avalanches. We therefore performed laboratory experiments with snow samples containing a weak layer consisting of either faceted crystals or depth hoar. During these experiments the samples were loaded with different loading rates and at various tilt angles until fracture. The strength of the samples decreased with increasing loading rate and increasing tilt angle. Additionally, we took pictures of the side of four samples with a high-speed video camera and calculated the displacement using a particle image velocimetry (PIV) algorithm. The fracture process within the weak layer could thus be observed in detail. Catastrophic failure started due to a shear fracture just above the interface between the depth hoar layer and the underlying crust.

Description: Scatter of mass changes estimates at basin scale for Greenland and Antarctica The Cryosphere, 7, 1411-1432, 2013 Author(s): V. R. Barletta, L. S. Sørensen, and R. Forsberg During the last decade, the GRACE mission has provided valuable data for determining the mass changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Yet, discrepancies still exist in the published mass balance results, and comprehensive analyses on the sources of errors and discrepancies are lacking. Here, we present monthly mass changes together with trends derived from GRACE data at basin scale for both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and we assess the variability and errors for each of the possible sources of discrepancies, and we do this in an unprecedented systematic way, taking into account mass inference methods, data sets and background models. We find a very good agreement between the monthly mass change results derived from two independent methods, which represents a cross validation. For the monthly solutions, we find that most of the scatter is caused by the use of the two different data sets rather than the two different methods applied. Besides the well-known GIA trend uncertainty, we find that the geocenter motion and the recent de-aliasing corrections significantly impact the trends, with contributions of +13.2 Gt yr −1 and −20 Gt yr −1 , respectively, for Antarctica, which is more affected by these than Greenland. We show differences between the use of release RL04 and the new RL05 and confirm a lower noise content in the new release. The overall scatter of the solutions well exceeds the uncertainties propagated from the data errors and the leakage (as done in the past); hence we calculate new sound total errors for the monthly solutions and the trends. We find that the scatter in the monthly solutions caused by applying different estimates of geocenter motion time series (degree-1 corrections) is significant – contributing with up to 40% of the total error. For the whole GRACE period (2003–2011) our trend estimate for Greenland is −234 ± 20 Gt yr −1 and −83 ± 36 Gt yr −1 for Antarctica (−111 ± 15 Gt yr −1 in the western part). We also find a clear (with respect to our errors) increase of mass loss in the last four years.

Description: Seismic zones for Azores based on statistical criteria Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2337-2351, 2013 Author(s): M. C. M. Rodrigues and C. S. Oliveira The objective of this paper is to define seismic zones in the Azores based on statistical criteria. These seismic zones will likely be used in seismic simulations of occurrences in the Azores Archipelago. The data used in this work cover the time period from 1915 to 2011. The Azores region was divided into 1° × 1° area units, for which the seismicity and the maximum magnitudes of events were calculated. The seismicity, the largest earthquakes recorded and the geological characteristics of the region were used to group these area units because similar seismic zones must delineate areas with homogeneous seismic characteristics. We have identified seven seismic zones. To verify that the defined areas differ statistically, we considered the following dissimilarity measures (variables): time, size and seismic conditions – the number of seismic events with specific characteristics. Statistical tests, particularly goodness-of-fit tests, allowed us to conclude that, considering these three variables, the seven earthquake zones defined here are statistically distinct.

Description: Sub-ionospheric very low frequency perturbations associated with the 12 May 2008 M = 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2331-2336, 2013 Author(s): A. K. Maurya, R. Singh, B. Veenadhari, S. Kumar, and A. K. Singh The present study reports the VLF (very low frequency) sub-ionospheric perturbations observed on transmitter JJI (22.1 kHz), Japan, received at the Indian low-latitude station, Allahabad ( geographic lat. 25.41° N, long 81.93° E), due to Wenchuan earthquake (EQ) that occurred on 12 May 2008 with the magnitude 7.9 and at the depth of 19 km in Sichuan province of Southwest China, located at 31.0° N, 103.4° E. The nighttime amplitude fluctuation analysis gives a significant increase in fluctuation and dispersion two days before EQ, when it crosses 2σ criterion. However, there was no significant change observed in the amplitude trend. The diurnal amplitude variation shows a significant increase in the amplitude of JJI signal on 11 and 12 May 2008. The gravity wave channel and changes in the electric field associated with this EQ seem to be the potential factors of the observed nighttime amplitude fluctuation, dispersion, and significant increase in the signal strength.

Description: Application of nonlinear autoregressive moving average exogenous input models to geospace: advances in understanding and space weather forecasts Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1579-1589, 2013 Author(s): R. J. Boynton, M. A. Balikhin, S. A. Billings, and O. A. Amariutei The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) system identification technique is applied to various aspects of the magnetospheres dynamics. It is shown, from an example system, how the inputs to a system can be found from the error reduction ratio (ERR) analysis, a key concept of the NARMAX approach. The application of the NARMAX approach to the Dst (disturbance storm time) index and the electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) are reviewed, revealing new insight into the physics of the system. The review of studies into the Dst index illustrate how the NARMAX approach is able to find a coupling function for the Dst index from data, which was then analytically justified from first principles. While the review of the electron flux demonstrates how NARMAX is able to reveal new insight into the physics of the acceleration and loss processes within the radiation belt.

Description: Are seasonal calving dynamics forced by buttressing from ice mélange or undercutting by melting? Outcomes from full-Stokes simulations of Store Glacier, West Greenland The Cryosphere, 8, 2353-2365, 2014 Author(s): J. Todd and P. Christoffersen We use a full-Stokes 2-D model (Elmer/Ice) to investigate the flow and calving dynamics of Store Glacier, a fast-flowing outlet glacier in West Greenland. Based on a new, subgrid-scale implementation of the crevasse depth calving criterion, we perform two sets of simulations: one to identify the primary forcing mechanisms and another to constrain future stability. We find that the mixture of icebergs and sea ice, known as ice mélange or sikussak, is principally responsible for the observed seasonal advance of the ice front. On the other hand, the effect of submarine melting on the calving rate of Store Glacier appears to be limited. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the glacier's calving dynamics are sensitive to seasonal perturbation, but are stable on interannual timescales due to the strong topographic control on the flow regime. Our results shed light on the dynamics of calving glaciers and may help explain why neighbouring glaciers do not necessarily respond synchronously to changes in atmospheric and oceanic forcing.

Description: Deglaciation of the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia, in the 21st century observed with ASTER satellite imagery and aerial photography The Cryosphere, 8, 2367-2379, 2014 Author(s): M. Shahgedanova, G. Nosenko, S. Kutuzov, O. Rototaeva, and T. Khromova Changes in the map area of 498 glaciers located on the Main Caucasus ridge (MCR) and on Mt. Elbrus in the Greater Caucasus Mountains (Russia and Georgia) were assessed using multispectral ASTER and panchromatic Landsat imagery with 15 m spatial resolution in 1999/2001 and 2010/2012. Changes in recession rates of glacier snouts between 1987–2001 and 2001–2010 were investigated using aerial photography and ASTER imagery for a sub-sample of 44 glaciers. In total, glacier area decreased by 4.7 ± 2.1% or 19.2 ± 8.7 km 2 from 407.3 ± 5.4 km 2 to 388.1 ± 5.2 km 2 . Glaciers located in the central and western MCR lost 13.4 ± 7.3 km 2 (4.7 ± 2.5%) in total or 8.5 km 2 (5.0 ± 2.4%) and 4.9 km 2 (4.1 ± 2.7%) respectively. Glaciers on Mt. Elbrus, although located at higher elevations, lost 5.8 ± 1.4 km 2 (4.9 ± 1.2%) of their total area. The recession rates of valley glacier termini increased between 1987–2000/01 and 2000/01–2010 (2000 for the western MCR and 2001 for the central MCR and Mt.~Elbrus) from 3.8 ± 0.8, 3.2 ± 0.9 and 8.3 ± 0.8 m yr −1 to 11.9 ± 1.1, 8.7 ± 1.1 and 14.1 ± 1.1 m yr −1 in the central and western MCR and on Mt. Elbrus respectively. The highest rate of increase in glacier termini retreat was registered on the southern slope of the central MCR where it has tripled. A positive trend in summer temperatures forced glacier recession, and strong positive temperature anomalies in 1998, 2006, and 2010 contributed to the enhanced loss of ice. An increase in accumulation season precipitation observed in the northern MCR since the mid-1980s has not compensated for the effects of summer warming while the negative precipitation anomalies, observed on the southern slope of the central MCR in the 1990s, resulted in stronger glacier wastage.

Description: Glacier-like forms on Mars The Cryosphere, 8, 2047-2061, 2014 Author(s): B. Hubbard, C. Souness, and S. Brough More than 1300 glacier-like forms (GLFs) are located in Mars' mid-latitudes. These GLFs are predominantly composed of ice–dust mixtures and are visually similar to terrestrial valley glaciers, showing signs of downhill viscous deformation and an expanded former extent. However, several fundamental aspects of their behavior are virtually unknown, including temporal and spatial variations in mass balance, ice motion, landscape erosion and deposition, and hydrology. Here, we investigate the physical glaciology of martian GLFs. We use satellite images of specific examples and case studies to build on existing knowledge relating to (i) GLF current and former extent, exemplified via a GLF located in Phlegra Montes; (ii) indicators of GLF motion, focusing on the presence of surface crevasses on several GLFs; (iii) processes of GLF debris transfer, focusing on mapping and interpreting boulder trains on one GLF located in Protonilus Mensae, the analysis of which suggests a best-estimate mean GLF flow speed of 7.5 mm a −1 ; and (iv) GLF hydrology, focusing on supra-GLF gulley networks. On the basis of this information, we summarize the current state of knowledge of the glaciology of martian GLFs and identify future research avenues.

Description: Modeling the elastic transmission of tidal stresses to great distances inland in channelized ice streams The Cryosphere, 8, 2007-2029, 2014 Author(s): J. Thompson, M. Simons, and V. C. Tsai Geodetic surveys suggest that ocean tides can modulate the motion of Antarctic ice streams, even at stations many tens of kilometers inland from the grounding line. These surveys suggest that ocean tidal stresses can perturb ice stream motion at distances about an order of magnitude farther inland than tidal flexure of the ice stream alone. Recent models exploring the role of tidal perturbations in basal shear stress are primarily one- or two-dimensional, with the impact of the ice stream margins either ignored or parameterized. Here, we use two- and three-dimensional finite-element modeling to investigate transmission of tidal stresses in ice streams and the impact of considering more realistic, three-dimensional ice stream geometries. Using Rutford Ice Stream as a real-world comparison, we demonstrate that the assumption that elastic tidal stresses in ice streams propagate large distances inland fails for channelized glaciers due to an intrinsic, exponential decay in the stress caused by resistance at the ice stream margins. This behavior is independent of basal conditions beneath the ice stream and cannot be fit to observations using either elastic or nonlinear viscoelastic rheologies without nearly complete decoupling of the ice stream from its lateral margins. Our results suggest that a mechanism external to the ice stream is necessary to explain the tidal modulation of stresses far upstream of the grounding line for narrow ice streams. We propose a hydrologic model based on time-dependent variability in till strength to explain transmission of tidal stresses inland of the grounding line. This conceptual model can reproduce observations from Rutford Ice Stream.

Description: Fluctuations of a Greenlandic tidewater glacier driven by changes in atmospheric forcing: observations and modelling of Kangiata Nunaata Sermia, 1859–present The Cryosphere, 8, 2031-2045, 2014 Author(s): J. M. Lea, D. W. F. Mair, F. M. Nick, B. R. Rea, D. van As, M. Morlighem, P. W. Nienow, and A. Weidick Many tidewater glaciers in Greenland are known to have undergone significant retreat during the last century following their Little Ice Age maxima. Where it is possible to reconstruct glacier change over this period, they provide excellent records for comparison to climate records, as well as calibration/validation for numerical models. These glacier change records therefore allow for tests of numerical models that seek to simulate tidewater glacier behaviour over multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here we present a detailed record of behaviour from Kangiata Nunaata Sermia (KNS), SW Greenland, between 1859 and 2012, and compare it against available oceanographic and atmospheric temperature data between 1871 and 2012. We also use these records to evaluate the ability of a well-established one-dimensional flow-band model to replicate behaviour for the observation period. The record of terminus change demonstrates that KNS has advanced/retreated in phase with atmosphere and ocean climate anomalies averaged over multi-annual to decadal timescales. Results from an ensemble of model runs demonstrate that observed dynamics can be replicated. Model runs that provide a reasonable match to observations always require a significant atmospheric forcing component, but do not necessarily require an oceanic forcing component. Although the importance of oceanic forcing cannot be discounted, these results demonstrate that changes in atmospheric forcing are likely to be a primary driver of the terminus fluctuations of KNS from 1859 to 2012. We propose that the detail and length of the record presented makes KNS an ideal site for model validation exercises investigating links between climate, calving rates, and tidewater glacier dynamics.

Description: A catalog of high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2867-2882, 2014 Author(s): P. Stucki, S. Brönnimann, O. Martius, C. Welker, M. Imhof, N. von Wattenwyl, and N. Philipp In recent decades, extremely hazardous windstorms have caused enormous losses to buildings, infrastructure and forests in Switzerland. This has increased societal and scientific interest in the intensity and frequency of historical high-impact storms. However, high-resolution wind data and damage statistics mostly span recent decades only. For this study, we collected quantitative (e.g., volumes of windfall timber, losses relating to buildings) and descriptive (e.g., forestry or insurance reports) information on the impact of historical windstorms. To define windstorm severity, normalized and declustered quantitative data were processed by extreme value statistics. Descriptive information was classified using a conceptual guideline. Validation with independent damage information, as well as comparison with wind measurements and a reanalysis, indicates that the most hazardous winter storms are captured, while too few moderate windstorms are detected. Strong storms in the wind measurements and reanalysis are thus added to the catalog. The final catalog encompasses approximately 240 high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859. It features three robust severity classes and contains eight extreme windstorms. Evidence of high winter storm activity in the early and late 20th century compared to the mid-20th century in both damage and wind data indicates a co-variability of hazard and related damage on decadal timescales.

Description: A GIS-based model to estimate flood consequences and the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in urban areas Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2847-2865, 2014 Author(s): R. Albano, A. Sole, J. Adamowski, and L. Mancusi Efficient decision-making regarding flood risk reduction has become a priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries. Risk analysis methods and techniques are a useful tool for evaluating costs and benefits of possible interventions. Within this context, a methodology to estimate flood consequences was developed in this paper that is based on GIS, and integrated with a model that estimates the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in an urban area. The majority of the currently available approaches do not properly analyse road network connections and dependencies within systems, and as such a loss of roads could cause significant damages and problems to emergency services in cases of flooding. The proposed model is unique in that it provides a maximum-impact estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk), in the emergency phase. The results of a case study in the Puglia region in southern Italy are described to illustrate the practical applications of this newly proposed approach. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for defining a hierarchy between different infrastructure in the urban area through the identification of particular components whose operation and efficiency are critical for emergency management. This information can be used by decision-makers to prioritize risk reduction interventions in flood emergencies in urban areas, given limited financial resources.

Description: Wind waves in the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2883-2897, 2014 Author(s): V. S. Arkhipkin, F. N. Gippius, K. P. Koltermann, and G. V. Surkova In this study we describe the wind wave fields in the Black Sea. The general aims of the work were the estimation of statistical wave parameters and the assessment of interannual and seasonal wave parameter variability. The domain of this study was the entire Black Sea. Wave parameters were calculated by means of the SWAN wave model on a 5 × 5 km rectangular grid. Initial conditions (wind speed and direction) for the period between 1949 and 2010 were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. According to our calculations the average significant wave height on the Black Sea does not exceed 0.7 m. Areas of most significant heavy sea are the southwestern and the northeastern parts of the sea as expressed in the spatial distribution of significant wave heights, wave lengths and periods. Besides, long-term annual variations of wave parameters were estimated. Thus, linear trends of the annual total duration of storms and of their quantity are nearly stable over the hindcast period. However, an intensification of storm activity is observed in the 1960s–1970s.

Description: Factors affecting flood insurance purchase in residential properties in Johor, Malaysia Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3297-3310, 2014 Author(s): U. G. Aliagha, T. E. Jin, W. W. Choong, M. Nadzri Jaafar, and H. M. Ali High-impact floods have become a virtually annual experience in Malaysia, yet flood insurance has remained a grossly neglected part of comprehensive integrated flood risk management. Using discriminant analysis, this study seeks to identify the demand-side variables that best predict flood insurance purchase and risk aversion between two groups of residential homeowners in three districts of Johor State, Malaysia: those who purchased flood insurance and those who did not. Our results revealed an overall 34% purchase rate, with Kota Tinggi district having the highest (44%) and thus the highest degree of flood risk aversion. The Wilks' lambda F test for equality of group means, standardised discriminant function coefficients, structure correlation, and canonical correlation has clearly shown that there are strong significant attribute differences between the two groups of homeowners, based on the measures of objective flood risk exposure, subjective risk perception, and socio-economic cum demographic variables. However, the measures of subjective risk perception were found to be more predictive of flood insurance purchase and flood risk aversion.

Description: Energy exchange and wave action conservation for magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves in a general, slowly varying medium Annales Geophysicae, 32, 1495-1510, 2014 Author(s): A. D. M. Walker Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves in the solar wind and magnetosphere are propagated in a medium whose velocity is comparable to or greater than the wave velocity and which varies in both space and time. In the approximation where the scales of the time and space variation are long compared with the period and wavelength, the ray-tracing equations can be generalized and then include an additional first-order differential equation that determines the variation of frequency. In such circumstances the wave can exchange energy with the background: wave energy is not conserved. In such processes the wave action theorem shows that the wave action, defined as the ratio of the wave energy to the frequency in the local rest frame, is conserved. In this paper we discuss ray-tracing techniques and the energy exchange relation for MHD waves. We then provide a unified account of how to deal with energy transport by MHD waves in non-uniform media. The wave action theorem is derived directly from the basic MHD equations for sound waves, transverse Alfvén waves, and the fast and slow magnetosonic waves. The techniques described are applied to a number of illustrative cases. These include a sound wave in a medium undergoing a uniform compression, an isotropic Alfvén wave in a steady-state shear layer, and a transverse Alfvén wave in a simple model of the magnetotail undergoing compression. In each case the nature and magnitude of the energy exchange between wave and background is found.

Description: Kinematics of a mass movement constrained by sparse and inhomogeneous data Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1609-1618, 2011 Author(s): M. Karbon, E. Brückl, E. Hegedüs, and A. Preh On 12 February 2008, a landslide occurred along a 50 m high bank of the Danube river near Dunaszekcsö, Hungary. The initial state is only incompletely documented and the geodetic data acquired after the mass movement are sparse. A generalized 3-D topographic model of the landslide and its surrounding area was assembled and a representative longitudinal profile extracted. The reconstruction of the original surface is based on an orthophoto as well as on morphological considerations. Recorded observations include the locations of the outcrops of basal sliding surfaces, displacements at the main scarp and in the lower part of the slide, and a value to describe the total mass transport. Such sparse and inhomogeneous data were insufficient to derive a comprehensive documentation of the landslide or obtain adequate constraints for an accurate numerical analysis. Therefore, slider block models were fitted to the field data, which have only a small number of free parameters. A general view on the morphology of the mass movement justifies its classification as a rotational slide. A double slider block model fits all observational parameters within their error margin and supplies valuable information on the geometry of the slide. Estimates of the residual friction angles were derived and the question of reactivation was addressed. Finite Difference (FD) modelling and the application of conventional stability analysis support the geometry of the slider blocks and the computed average residual friction angles. Generally, the results are assumed to represent preliminary information, which could only be attained by the combination of the thinly distributed geodetic data with qualitative morphological observations and the implementation of a model. This type of information can be gained quickly and may be valuable for preliminary hazard mitigation measures or the planning of a comprehensive exploration and monitoring program.

Description: Looking for evidence of climate change impacts in the eastern Irish Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1641-1656, 2011 Author(s): L. S. Esteves, J. J. Williams, and J. M. Brown Although storminess is often cited as a driver of long-term coastal erosion, a lack of suitable datasets has only allowed objective assessment of this claim in a handful of case studies. This reduces our ability to understand and predict how the coastline may respond to an increase in "storminess" as suggested by global and regional climate models. With focus on 16 km of the Sefton coastline bordering the eastern Irish Sea (UK), this paper analyses available measured datasets of water level, surge level, wave height, wind speed and barometric pressure with the objective of finding trends in metocean climate that are consistent with predictions. The paper then examines rates of change in shoreline position over the period 1894 to 2005 with the aim of establishing relationships with climatic variability using a range of measured and modelled metocean parameters (with time spans varying from two to eight decades). With the exception of the mean monthly wind speed, available metocean data do not indicate any statistically significant changes outside seasonal and decadal cycles. No clear relationship was found between changes in metocean conditions and rates of shoreline change along the Sefton coast. High interannual variability and the lack of long-term measurements make unambiguous correlations between climate change and shoreline evolution problematic. However, comparison between the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAOw) and coastline changes suggest increased erosion at times of decreasing NAOw values and reduced erosion at times of increasing NAOw values. Erosion tends to be more pronounced when decreasing NAOw values lead to a strong negative NAO phase. At present, anthropogenic changes in the local sediment budget and the short-term impact of extreme events are still the largest threat likely to affect coastal flooding and erosion risk in the short- and medium-term. Nevertheless, the potential impacts of climate change in the long-term should not be ignored.

Description: Comparing historical-hydrogeomorphological reconstitution and hydrological-hydraulic modelling in the estimation of flood-prone areas – a case study in Central Portugal Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1669-1681, 2011 Author(s): P. P. Santos, A. O. Tavares, and A. I. A. S. S. Andrade The Arunca River basin in Central Portugal has a historical record of hazardous events related to floods, causing widespread disturbance. This article describes the application of two approaches based on well-known methods for the estimation of flood-prone areas: (i) historical-hydrogeomorphological reconstitution, applied to the entire Arunca River basin, and (ii) hydrological-hydraulic modelling, applied to four sections selected from different (upper, middle and lower) sectors of the basin and including urban and rural areas along the Arunca River. The mapping of the flood-prone areas obtained by these two methods was compared in order to identify the main differences and similarities. Human interventions (river channel and floodplain morphological changes) were found to be the main factor explaining the differences and similarities between the results obtained by both methods. The application of hydrological-hydraulic modelling proved important in reinforcing the results of the historical-hydrogeomorphological method; it also helped in complementing the results produced by the latter method in urban areas and in areas with insufficient historical records. The application of the historical-hydrogeomorphological method, in turn, allowed for the size of the flood-prone areas to be determined where the primary data (e.g. geometry, roughness and flow) was not accurate enough for hydrological-hydraulic modelling. The methodological approach adopted demonstrates the strong complementary relationship between the different existing methods for estimating flood-prone areas, and may be reproduced for other drainage basins.

Description: On the influence of CMEs on the global 3-D coronal electron density Annales Geophysicae, 29, 1019-1028, 2011 Author(s): M. Kramar, J. Davila, H. Xie, and S. Antiochos In order to analize the influence of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on the coronal streamer belt, we made 3-D reconstructions of the electron density in the corona at heliospheric distances from 1.5 to 4 R ⊙ for periods before and after a CME occured. The reconstructions were performed using a tomography technique. We studied two CME cases: (i) a slow CME on 1 June 2008; (ii) two fast CMEs on 31 December 2007 and 2 January 2008. For the first case of slow CME, it was found: (i) the potential magnetic field configuration in the CME initiation region before the CME does not agree with the coronal density structure while after the CME the agreement between the field and density is much better. This could be manifistation of that that the field was non-potential before the CME and after the CME the field relaxes towards a more potential state. (ii) It was shown that the dimming caused by the slow CME is not due to rotation of the corona and a line-of-sight (LOS) effect but a streamer blow out effect took place.

Description: Longitudinal study of the ionospheric response to the geomagnetic storm of 15 May 2005 and manifestation of TADs Annales Geophysicae, 29, 1063-1070, 2011 Author(s): S. Sharma, P. Galav, N. Dashora, and R. Pandey Response of low latitude ionosphere to the geomagnetic storm of 15 May 2005 has been studied using total electron content (TEC) data, obtained from three GPS stations namely, Yibal, Udaipur and Kunming situated near the northern crest of equatorial ionization anomaly at different longitudes. Solar wind parameters, north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF B z ) and AE index data have been used to infer the strength of the geomagnetic storm. A large value of eastward interplanetary electric field at 06:15 UT, during the time of maximum southward IMF B z has been used to infer the transmission of an eastward prompt penetration electric field (PPEF) which resulted in a peak in TEC at 07:45 UT due to the local uplift of plasma in the low latitudes near the anomaly crest over a wide range of longitudes. Wave-like modulations superposed over the second enhancement in TEC between 09:15 UT to 10:30 UT have been observed at all the three stations. The second enhancement in TEC along with the modulations of up to 5 TECU have been attributed to the combined effect of super plasma fountain and traveling atmospheric disturbances (TAD). Observed large enhancements in TEC are a cause of concern for satellite based navigation and ground positioning. Increased [O/N 2 ] ratio between 09:15 UT to 10:15 UT when modulations in TEC have been also observed, confirms the presence of TADs over a wide range of longitudes.

Description: The contribution of engineering surveys by means of GPS to the determination of crustal movements in Istanbul Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1705-1713, 2011 Author(s): M. Özyaşar and M. T. Özlüdemir Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are space based positioning techniques and widely used in geodetic applications. Geodetic networking accomplished by engineering surveys constitutes one of these tasks. Geodetic networks are used as the base of all kinds of geodetic implementations, Co from the cadastral plans to the relevant surveying processes during the realization of engineering applications. Geodetic networks consist of control points positioned in a defined reference frame. In fact, such positional information could be useful for other studies as well. One of such fields is geodynamic studies that use the changes of positions of control stations within a network in a certain time period to understand the characteristics of tectonic movements. In Turkey, which is located in tectonically active zones and struck by major earthquakes quite frequently, the positional information obtained in engineering surveys could be very useful for earthquake related studies. For this purpose, a GPS (Global Positioning System) network of 650 stations distributed over Istanbul (Istanbul GPS Triangulation Network; abbreviated IGNA) covering the northern part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) was established in 1997 and measured in 1999. From 1998 to 2004, the IGNA network was extended to 1888 stations covering an area of about 6000 km 2 , the whole administration area of Istanbul. All 1888 stations within the IGNA network were remeasured in 2005. In these two campaigns there existed 452 common points, and between these two campaigns two major earthquakes took place, on 17 August and 12 November 1999 with a Richter scale magnitude of 7.4 and 7.2, respectively. Several studies conducted for estimating the horizontal and vertical displacements as a result of these earthquakes on NAFZ are discussed in this paper. In geodynamic projects carried out before the earthquakes in 1999, an annual average velocity of 2–2.5 cm for the stations along the NAFZ were estimated. Studies carried out using GPS observations in the same area after these earthquakes indicated that point displacements vary depending on their distance to the epicentres of the earthquakes. But the directions of point displacements are similar. The results obtained through the analysis of the IGNA network also show that there is a common trend in the directions of point displacements in the study area. In this paper, the past studies about the tectonics of Marmara region are summarised and the results of the displacement analysis on the IGNA network are discussed.

Description: Quantitative estimation of landslide risk from rapid debris slides on natural slopes in the Nilgiri hills, India Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1723-1743, 2011 Author(s): P. Jaiswal, C. J. van Westen, and V. Jetten A quantitative procedure for estimating landslide risk to life and property is presented and applied in a mountainous area in the Nilgiri hills of southern India. Risk is estimated for elements at risk located in both initiation zones and run-out paths of potential landslides. Loss of life is expressed as individual risk and as societal risk using F-N curves, whereas the direct loss of properties is expressed in monetary terms. An inventory of 1084 landslides was prepared from historical records available for the period between 1987 and 2009. A substantially complete inventory was obtained for landslides on cut slopes (1042 landslides), while for natural slopes information on only 42 landslides was available. Most landslides were shallow translational debris slides and debris flowslides triggered by rainfall. On natural slopes most landslides occurred as first-time failures. For landslide hazard assessment the following information was derived: (1) landslides on natural slopes grouped into three landslide magnitude classes, based on landslide volumes, (2) the number of future landslides on natural slopes, obtained by establishing a relationship between the number of landslides on natural slopes and cut slopes for different return periods using a Gumbel distribution model, (3) landslide susceptible zones, obtained using a logistic regression model, and (4) distribution of landslides in the susceptible zones, obtained from the model fitting performance (success rate curve). The run-out distance of landslides was assessed empirically using landslide volumes, and the vulnerability of elements at risk was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific risk was estimated individually for tea/coffee and horticulture plantations, transport infrastructures, buildings, and people both in initiation and run-out areas. Risks were calculated by considering the minimum, average, and maximum landslide volumes in each magnitude class and the corresponding minimum, average, and maximum run-out distances and vulnerability values, thus obtaining a range of risk values per return period. The results indicate that the total annual minimum, average, and maximum losses are about US$ 44 000, US$ 136 000 and US$ 268 000, respectively. The maximum risk to population varies from 2.1 × 10 −1 for one or more lives lost to 6.0 × 10 −2 yr −1 for 100 or more lives lost. The obtained results will provide a basis for planning risk reduction strategies in the Nilgiri area.

Description: Volume cross section of auroral radar backscatter and RMS plasma fluctuations inferred from coherent and incoherent scatter data: a response on backscatter volume parameters Annales Geophysicae, 29, 1081-1092, 2011 Author(s): M. V. Uspensky, P. Janhunen, A. V. Koustov, and K. Kauristie Norway and Finland STARE radar measurements in the eastward auroral electrojet are combined with EISCAT CP-1 measurements of the electron density and electric field vector in the common scattering volume to investigate the variation of the auroral radar volume cross section (VCS) with the flow angle of observations (radar look direction with respect to the E × B electron drift). The data set available consists of ~6000 points for flow angles of 40–85° and electron drifts between 500 and 2000 m s −1 . The EISCAT electron density N(h) -profile data are used to estimate the effective electron density, aspect angle and thickness of the backscattering layer. It is shown that the flow angle variation of the VCS is rather weak, only ~5 dB within the range of the considered flow angles. The VCS values themselves respond almost linearly to the square of both the electron drift velocity magnitude and the effective electron density. By adopting the inferred shape of the VCS variation with the flow angle and the VCS dependence upon wavelength, the relative amplitude of electrostatic electron density fluctuations over all scales is estimated. Inferred values of 2–4 percent react nearly linearly to the electron drift velocity in the range of 500–1000 m s −1 but the rate of increase slows down at electron drifts 〉1000 m s −1 and density fluctuations of ~5.5 percent due to, perhaps, progressively growing nonlinear wave losses.

Description: Flux quanta, magnetic field lines, merging – some sub-microscale relations of interest in space plasma physics Annales Geophysicae, 29, 1121-1127, 2011 Author(s): R. A. Treumann, R. Nakamura, and W. Baumjohann We clarify the notion of magnetic field lines in plasma by referring to sub-microscale (quantum mechanical) particle dynamics. It is demonstrated that magnetic field lines in a field of strength B carry single magnetic flux quanta Φ 0 = h/e . The radius of a field line in the given magnetic field B is calculated. It is shown that such field lines can merge and annihilate only over the length ℓ ∥ of their strictly anti-parallel sections, for which case we estimate the power generated. The length ℓ ∥ becomes a function of the inclination angle θ of the two merging magnetic flux tubes (field lines). Merging is possible only in the interval 1 2 πθ≤π. This provides a sub-microscopic basis for "component reconnection" in classical macro-scale reconnection. We also find that the magnetic diffusion coefficient in plasma appears in quanta D 0 m = e Φ 0 / m e = h/m e . This lets us conclude that the bulk perpendicular plasma resistivity is limited and cannot be less than η 0⊥ =μ 0 e Φ 0 / m e =μ 0 h/m e ~10 −9 Ohm m. This resistance is an invariant.

Description: Could periodic patterns in human mortality be sensitive to solar activity? Annales Geophysicae, 29, 1113-1120, 2011 Author(s): R. Díaz-Sandoval, R. Erdélyi, and R. Maheswaran Seasonal behaviour of human diseases have been observed and reported in the literature for years. Although the Sun plays an essential role in the origin and evolution of life on Earth, it is barely taken into account in biological processes for the development of a specific disease. Higher mortality rates occur during the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere for several diseases, particularly diseases of the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. This increment has been associated with seasonal and social causes. However, is there more behind these correlations, in particular in terms of solar variability? In this paper we attempt to make a first step towards answering this question. A detailed wavelet analysis of periodicities for diseases from England and Wales seem to reveal that mortality periodicities (3 days to half a year) could be due to the Earth's position around the Sun. Moreover, crosswavelet and wavelet coherence analysis show common features between medical diseases and solar proxies around solar maximum activity suggesting that this relation, if any, has to be searched in times of high solar activity.

Description: Excitation of zero-frequency magnetic field-aligned currents by ionospheric heating Annales Geophysicae, 29, 1147-1152, 2011 Author(s): A. V. Streltsov and T. R. Pedersen Time-dependent, three-dimensional numerical simulations of the reduced MHD model describing shear Alfvén waves in the magnetosphere provide an interesting prediction superficially similar to results of several ionospheric heating experiments conducted at high altitudes. In these experiments, heating of the ionospheric F-region with a constant/zero-frequency beam of HF waves causes luminous structures in the ionosphere in the form of a ring or a solid spot with a characteristic size comparable to the size of the heated spot. Simulations suggest that spots/rings or similar optical appearance might be associated with a magnetic field-aligned current system produced by the ionospheric heating. Two of the most interesting features of this current system are (1) strong localization across the ambient magnetic field and (2) distinctive non-symmetrical luminous signatures (ring/spot) in magnetically conjugate locations in the ionosphere.

Description: Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1795-1805, 2011 Author(s): R. Moratiel, R. L. Snyder, J. M. Durán, and A. M. Tarquis The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows possible future situations 50 yr from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ET o ). The maximum temperature ( T max ), minimum temperature ( T min ), dew point ( T d ), wind speed ( U ) and net radiation ( R n ) trends during the 1980–2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman-Montheith equation to estimate ET o . Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO 2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, taking the concentration of CO 2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly) into consideration. The scenarios studied showed the changes in ET o as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables T max , T min , T d , U and R n with current and future CO 2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ET o showed increases between 118 mm (11 %) and 55 mm (5 %) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin's crops.

Description: Possible interrelation between the lead time of precursory seismic electric signals (SES) and geodynamics in Aegean Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1599-1603, 2011 Author(s): E. Dologlou The seismicity of the last 15 years in the Aegean Sea revealed that earthquakes ( M w 〉 5) with epicentres falling within the Sporades basin and the confined area north of Samos island were preceded by electric seismic signals (SES) with a remarkably long lead time. A possible explanation of this behaviour by means of specific tectonics and geodynamics which characterise these two regions, such as a significant small crustal thickness and a high heat flow rate, has been attempted. New data seem to strengthen the above hypothesis.

Description: Comment on "The PC index: review of methods", by McCreadie and Menvielle (2010) Annales Geophysicae, 29, 1137-1146, 2011 Author(s): P. Stauning The Polar Cap (PC) index is a controversial topic within the IAGA scientific community. Since 1997 discussions of the validity of the index to be endorsed as an official IAGA index have ensued. The article: "The PC index: review of methods", written by two members of the IAGA PC index committee, H. McCreadie and M. Menvielle, holds a critical review of some aspects of the methods used to derive PC index values. However, a number of incorrect statements and factual errors have been found and shall be called attention to and discussed in this commentary. Further critical comments concern the Corrigendum issued by the same authors and published in Ann. Geophys., 29, 813–814, 2011.

Description: The role of the bow shock in solar wind-magnetosphere coupling Annales Geophysicae, 29, 1129-1135, 2011 Author(s): R. E. Lopez, V. G. Merkin, and J. G. Lyon In this paper we examine the role of the bow shock in coupling solar wind energy to the magnetosphere using global magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction with southward IMF. During typical solar wind conditions, there are two significant dynamo currents in the magnetospheric system, one in the high-latitude mantle region tailward of the cusp and the other in the bow shock. As the magnitude of the (southward) IMF increases and the solar wind becomes a low Mach number flow, there is a significant change in solar wind-magnetosphere coupling. The high-latitude magnetopause dynamo becomes insignificant compared to the bow shock and a large load appears right outside the magnetopause. This leaves the bow shock current as the only substantial dynamo current in the system, and the only place where a significant amount of mechanical energy is extracted from the solar wind. That energy appears primarily as electromagnetic energy, and the Poynting flux generated at the bow shock feeds energy back into the plasma, reaccelerating it to solar wind speeds. Some small fraction of that Poynting flux is directed into the magnetosphere, supplying the energy needed for magnetospheric dynamics. Thus during periods when the solar wind flow has a low Mach number, the main dynamo in the solar wind-magnetosphere system is the bow shock.

Description: Daytime variations of foE connected to earthquakes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1807-1812, 2011 Author(s): E. V. Liperovskaya, V. V. Bogdanov, P.-F. Biagi, C.-V. Meister, and V. A. Liperovsky In the present work it is shown that, in accordance with the observations of the vertical sounding station "Tashkent", the critical foE-frequency of the daytime E-layer increases about one day before winter-earthquakes with magnitudes M 〉 5 and depths of the epicentre of h 〈 60 km, which appeared at distances of R 〈 2000 km from the station. The reliability of the result is larger than 99 %. The phenomenon is not observed for summer-earthquakes. It seems to be determined by the atmospheric wind system. Further, the variations of the foE-frequency are compared with possible simultaneous variations of the critical frequency foF2 of the F2-layer. First results show that only very large changes of the ionisation density in the E-layer influence the ionisation density in the F-region. Therefore, no synchronous growth of the foE- and foF2-frequencies 1–2 days before seismic shocks could be observed.

Description: Measurements of aerosol intensive properties over Visakhapatnam, India for 2007 Annales Geophysicae, 29, 973-985, 2011 Author(s): K. Niranjan, B. Spandana, T. Anjana Devi, V. Sreekanth, and B. L. Madhavan Information on the aerosol intensive properties like Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) and asymmetry parameter are very limited, particularly over the peninsular India, though extensive reports are available on the aerosol bulk properties. In view of the importance of these parameters in evaluating the aerosol radiative forcing, we present for the first time the temporal variation in SSA with measurements on aerosol absorption and scattering coefficients over Visakhapatnam (17.72° N, 83.32° E; located on the east coast of India) for the year 2007. The inferred SSA was in the range of 0.65 and 0.9 with an annual mean of 0.76 ± 0.013 and with a probable value of 0.80, indicating a marginal atmospheric warming over the region. The mixed layer contribution to column Aerosol Optical depth is found to be 35 % in summer while it is well above 35 % in winter, indicating the confinement of aerosol within the boundary layer during winter. The asymmetry parameter which represents the angular scattering in radiative forcing estimation is found to be around 0.65 ± 0.1 for the location. The day to day variability in SSA is found to be well correlated with the variations in surface BC mass concentrations and/or the relative dominance of the fine/coarse mode aerosol. The results are discussed in light of the aerosol physical and optical properties and the asymmetry parameter.

Description: The surface energy balance of a polygonal tundra site in northern Siberia – Part 2: Winter The Cryosphere, 5, 509-524, 2011 Author(s): M. Langer, S. Westermann, S. Muster, K. Piel, and J. Boike In this study, we present the winter time surface energy balance at a polygonal tundra site in northern Siberia based on independent measurements of the net radiation, the sensible heat flux and the ground heat flux from two winter seasons. The latent heat flux is inferred from measurements of the atmospheric turbulence characteristics and a model approach. The long-wave radiation is found to be the dominant factor in the surface energy balance. The radiative losses are balanced to about 60 % by the ground heat flux and almost 40 % by the sensible heat fluxes, whereas the contribution of the latent heat flux is small. The main controlling factors of the surface energy budget are the snow cover, the cloudiness and the soil temperature gradient. Large spatial differences in the surface energy balance are observed between tundra soils and a small pond. The ground heat flux released at a freezing pond is by a factor of two higher compared to the freezing soil, whereas large differences in net radiation between the pond and soil are only observed at the end of the winter period. Differences in the surface energy balance between the two winter seasons are found to be related to differences in snow depth and cloud cover which strongly affect the temperature evolution and the freeze-up at the investigated pond.

Description: Shallow circulation groundwater – the main type of water containing hazardous radon concentration Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1695-1703, 2011 Author(s): T. A. Przylibski The main factors affecting the value of 222 Rn activity concentration in groundwater are the emanation coefficient of reservoir rocks ( K em ), the content of parent 226 Ra in these rocks ( q ), changes in the volume and flow velocity as well as the mixing of various groundwater components in the circulation system. The highest values of 222 Rn activity concentration are recorded in groundwaters flowing towards an intake through strongly cracked reservoir rocks undergoing weathering processes. Because of these facts, waters with hazardous radon concentration levels, i.e. containing more than 100 Bq dm −3 222 Rn, could be characterised in the way that follows. They are classified as radon waters, high-radon waters and extreme-radon waters. They belong to shallow circulation systems (at less than a few dozen metres below ground level) and are contemporary infiltration waters, i.e. their underground flow time ranges from several fortnights to a few decades. Because of this, these are usually poorly mineralised waters (often below 0.2–0.5 g dm −3 ). Their resources are renewable, but also vulnerable to contamination. Waters of this type are usually drawn from private intakes, supplying water to one or at most a few households. Due to an increased risk of developing lung tumours, radon should be removed from such waters when still in the intake. To achieve this aim, appropriate legislation should be introduced in many countries.

Description: Precipitation change in Southern Italy linked to global scale oscillation indexes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1683-1694, 2011 Author(s): T. Caloiero, R. Coscarelli, E. Ferrari, and M. Mancini This study investigates precipitation variability in five regions of Southern Italy (Campania, Apulia, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily) using a homogeneous database of about 70 rain gauges with more than 50 years of observation. First, a statistical analysis was performed through the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test in order to determine rainfall the trend on both yearly and seasonal scales. Then, the relationship between the rainfall and some teleconnection pattern indexes was investigated using Spearman's test. The results show remarkable statistically significant negative trends for annual and winter aggregations in most part of the series. Moreover, a strong correlation has emerged between the teleconnection patterns and precipitation in Southern Italy, particularly in winter and on the Tyrrhenian side of the study area.

Description: Corrigendum to "Downward auroral currents from the reconnection Hall-region", published in Ann. Geophys., 29, 679–685, 2011 Annales Geophysicae, 29, 1061-1061, 2011 Author(s): R. A. Treumann, R. Nakamura, and W. Baumjohann No abstract available.

Description: Reconstruction of Atlantic historical winter coastal storms in the Spanish coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz, 1929–2005 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1715-1722, 2011 Author(s): P. Ribera, D. Gallego, C. Pena-Ortiz, L. Del Rio, T. A. Plomaritis, and J. Benavente This paper presents the reconstruction of a climatological series of winter coastal storms on the northern coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz. This series has been put together using information extracted from regional and local Spanish newspapers. It includes all the storms coming from the Atlantic sector that have been detected during the winter season, from October to March, between 1929 and 2005. In order to validate this historical storm series, it has been compared with storms series identified from quasi-observational data and using different wave heights as thresholds to decide what is to be considered as a coastal storm. Nearly 2.6 reports per year about coastal storms are published in the press which correspond to waves of 3.6 m high or more and to prevailing winds from a direction ranging between SSW and WNW. A long- term positive trend has been detected for the complete storm series. If only the instrumental period is analysed, no significant trend is detected. It is suggested that this difference might be associated with the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the occurrence of storms in this area.

Description: Hybrid models of solar wind plasma heating Annales Geophysicae, 29, 1071-1079, 2011 Author(s): L. Ofman, A.-F. Viñas, and P. S. Moya Remote sensing and in-situ observations show that solar wind ions are often hotter than electrons, and the heavy ions flow faster than the protons by up to an Alfvén speed. Turbulent spectrum of Alfvénic fluctuations and shocks were detected in solar wind plasma. Cross-field inhomogeneities in the corona were observed to extend to several tens of solar radii from the Sun. The acceleration and heating of solar wind plasma is studied via 1-D and 2-D hybrid simulations. The models describe the kinetics of protons and heavy ions, and electrons are treated as neutralizing fluid.The expansion of the solar wind is considered in 1-D hybrid model. A spectrum of Alfvénic fluctuations is injected at the computational boundary, produced by differential streaming instability, or initial ion temperature anisotropy, and the parametric dependence of the perpendicular heating of H + -He ++ solar wind plasma is studied. It is found that He ++ ions are heated efficiently by the Alfvénic wave spectrum below the proton gyroperiod.

Description: The neutral temperature in the ionospheric dynamo region and the ionospheric F region density during Wenchuan and Pingtung Doublet earthquakes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1759-1768, 2011 Author(s): Y. Y. Sun, K.-I. Oyama, J. Y. Liu, H. K. Jhuang, and C. Z. Cheng One of the possible candidates which modifies the ionosphere before large earthquake is electric field. We presume that the electric field associated with large earthquakes is generated in the ionosphere dynamo region (100–120 km). This paper tries to identify the evidence of the contribution of the neutral atmosphere in the dynamo region. The relationship between the critical frequency at the F2 peak (foF2) and the height profile of the neutral atmosphere temperature was studied for two large earthquakes: Wenchuan, 2008 and Pingtung Doublet, 2006. It is found that the wave amplitude of the vertical wavelength 20–30 km which is usually superposed on the height profile of the neutral atmosphere temperature enhances when the foF2 increases. The correlation between the wave amplitude and foF2 is found better along a longitudinal direction than along latitude direction.

Description: The relationship between the performance of soil conditions and damage following an earthquake: a case study in Istanbul, Turkey Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1745-1758, 2011 Author(s): G. Ç. İnce Istanbul city has experienced many strong earthquakes throughout its history and suffered extensive damage. The old Istanbul (Fatih and Eminonu districts), one of the most densely populated locations of Istanbul city, is a commercial centre and has many significant historical buildings. In this study, the data pertaining to the damage sustained by historical artifacts and structures from past earthquakes, are examined along with the soil amplification of the region, the liquefaction and slope stability risk in relation to the seismic microzonation maps which were prepared using geographic information system techniques. The relationship between soil behaviour and the damage resulting from previous earthquakes. The structural damage observed in the region was in accordance with the microzonation maps. Since the area does not have a high risk in terms of slope stability, this does not have much impact on the level of damage. However, it was found that soil amplification and partial liquefaction contributed to the damage to historical artifacts and structures.

Description: Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1769-1785, 2011 Author(s): B. Groppelli, A. Soncini, D. Bocchiola, and R. Rosso We investigate future (2045–2054) hydrological cycle of the snow fed Oglio (≈1800 km 2 ) Alpine watershed in Northern Italy. A Stochastic Space Random Cascade (SSRC) approach is used to downscale future precipitation from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base and chosen for this purpose based upon previous studies. We then downscale temperature output from the GCMs to obtain temperature fields for the area. We also consider a projected scenario based upon trends locally observed in former studies, LOC scenario. Then, we feed the downscaled fields to a minimal hydrological model to build future hydrological scenarios. We provide projected flow duration curves and selected flow descriptors, giving indication of expected modified (against control run for 1990–1999) regime of low flows and droughts and flood hazard, and thus evaluate modified peak floods regime through indexed flood. We then assess the degree of uncertainty, or spread, of the projected water resources scenarios by feeding the hydrological model with ensembles projections consistent with our deterministic (GCMs + LOC) scenarios, and we evaluate the significance of the projected flow variables against those observed in the control run. The climate scenarios from the adopted GCMs differ greatly from one another with respect to projected precipitation amount and temperature regimes, and so do the projected hydrological scenarios. A relatively good agreement is found upon prospective shrinkage and shorter duration of the seasonal snow cover due to increased temperature patterns, and upon prospective increase of hydrological losses, i.e. evapotranspiration, for the same reason. However, precipitation patterns are less consistent, because HadCM3 and PCM models project noticeably increased precipitation for 2045–2054, whereas CCSM3 provides decreased precipitation patterns therein. The LOC scenario instead displays unchanged precipitation. The ensemble simulations indicate that several projected flow variables under the considered scenarios are significantly different from their control run counterparts, and also that snow cover seems to significantly decrease in duration and depth. The proposed hydrological scenarios eventually provide a what-if analysis, giving a broad view of the possible expected impacts of climate change within the Italian Alps, necessary to trigger the discussion about future adaptation strategies.

Description: A tool for assessing the quality of the Mediterranean cyclone forecast: a numerical index Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1787-1794, 2011 Author(s): M. A. Picornell, A. Jansà, and A. Genovés Cyclones affecting the Mediterranean region, sometimes related to severe weather events, are often not well represented enough in numerical model predictions. Assessing the quality of the forecast of these cyclonic structures would be a significant advance in better knowing the goodness of the weather forecast in this region, and particularly the quality of predictions of high impact phenomena. In order to estimate the cyclone forecast uncertainty in operational models, in this work we compare two cyclone databases for the period 2006–2007: one from the operational analyses of the T799 ECMWF deterministic model; and the other from the forecasts provided by the same model in three ranges, H+12, H+24, and H+48. The skill of the model to detect cyclones and its accuracy in describing their features are assessed. An index is presented as an indicator of the quality of the prediction, derived from the frequency distribution of errors in the prediction of four characteristics of the cyclone: position, central pressure value, geostrophic circulation, and domain. Some sub-indexes are derived to verify each of the variables separately in order to analyse the most frequent sources of error. Other sub-indexes are also defined to indicate possible biases in the numerical prediction model.

Description: A full Stokes ice flow model for the vicinity of Dome Fuji, Antarctica, with induced anisotropy and fabric evolution The Cryosphere, 5, 495-508, 2011 Author(s): H. Seddik, R. Greve, T. Zwinger, and L. Placidi A three-dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled ice flow model with induced anisotropy has been applied to a ~200 × 200 km domain around the Dome Fuji drill site, Antarctica. The model ("Elmer/Ice") is based on the open-source multi-physics package Elmer ( http://www.csc.fi/elmer/ ) and solves the full Stokes equations. Flow-induced anisotropy in ice is accounted for by an implementation of the C ontinuum-mechanical, A nisotropic F low model, based on an anisotropic F low E nhancement factor ("CAFFE model"). Steady-state simulations for present-day climate conditions are conducted. The main findings are: (i) the flow regime at Dome Fuji is a complex superposition of vertical compression, horizontal extension and bed-parallel shear; (ii) for an assumed geothermal heat flux of 60 mW m −2 the basal temperature at Dome Fuji reaches the pressure melting point and the basal melting rate is ~0.35 mm a −1 ; (iii) in agreement with observational data, the fabric shows a strong single maximum at Dome Fuji, and the age of the ice is decreased compared to an isotropic scenario; (iv) as a consequence of spatially variable basal melting conditions, the basal age tends to be smaller where the ice is thicker and larger where the ice is thinner. The latter result is of great relevance for the consideration of a future drill site in the area.

Description: On the effect of IMF turning on ion dynamics at Mercury Annales Geophysicae, 29, 987-996, 2011 Author(s): D. C. Delcourt, T. E. Moore, and M.-C. H. Fok We investigate the effect of a rotation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) on the transport of magnetospheric ion populations at Mercury. We focus on ions of planetary origin and investigate their large-scale circulation using three-dimensional single-particle simulations. We show that a nonzero B X component of the IMF leads to a pronounced asymmetry in the overall circulation pattern. In particular, we demonstrate that the centrifugal acceleration due to curvature of the E × B drift paths is more pronounced in one hemisphere than the other, leading to filling of the magnetospheric lobes and plasma sheet with more or less energetic material depending upon the hemisphere of origin. Using a time-varying electric and magnetic field model, we investigate the response of ions to rapid (a few tens of seconds) re-orientation of the IMF. We show that, for ions with gyroperiods comparable to the field variation time scale, the inductive electric field should lead to significant nonadiabatic energization, up to several hundreds of eVs or a few keVs. It thus appears that IMF turning at Mercury should lead to localized loading of the magnetosphere with energetic material of planetary origin (e.g., Na + ).