ALBERT

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Reconstructions of the timing and frequency of past eruptions are important to assess the propensity for future volcanic activity, yet in volcanic areas such as the East African Rift only piecemeal eruption histories exist. Understanding the volcanic history of scoria‐cone fields, where eruptions are often infrequent and deposits strongly weathered, is particularly challenging. Here we reconstruct a history of volcanism from scoria cones situated along the eastern shoulders of the Kenya–Tanzania Rift, using a sequence of tephra (volcanic ash) layers preserved in the ~250‐ka sediment record of Lake Chala near Mount Kilimanjaro. Seven visible and two non‐visible (crypto‐) tephra layers in the Lake Chala sequence are attributed to activity from the Mt Kilimanjaro (northern Tanzania) and the Chyulu Hills (southern Kenya) volcanic fields, on the basis of their glass chemistry, textural characteristics and known eruption chronology. The Lake Chala record of eruptions from scoria cones in the Chyulu Hills volcanic field confirms geological and historical evidence of its recent activity, and provides first‐order age estimates for seven previously unknown eruptions. Long and well‐resolved sedimentary records such as that of Lake Chala have significant potential for resolving regional eruption chronologies spanning hundreds of thousands of years.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT We present here the results of the first‐ever Quaternary entomological research in China. The Halashazi Wetland, located in the southern Altai Mountain region in the northernmost part of Xinjiang Province, yielded Holocene insect fossils (mostly beetles) from two peat profiles. In total, 55 Coleoptera taxa were found, including 37 identified species. A new species, Helophorus sinoglacialis, was identified. The fauna is strongly northern Holarctic in character. The interval from 10 424 to 9705 cal a BP was probably a cold and wet period, and the study site was above the treeline. From 9665 to 9500 cal a BP it was probably warmer and drier, and treeline moved to higher elevations. Following a depositional hiatus, mid‐Holocene (5400–4400 cal a BP) insect assemblages represent cold conditions with the site above the treeline. The exception was a brief warming around 5450 cal a BP, when bark beetle evidence suggests that the treeline moved to a higher elevation. Of the 37 identified beetle species from the Halashazi site, 34 (92%) have modern records in Siberia. The Altai Mountains probably served as a dispersal corridor between the Siberian arctic and alpine regions of northern China.

Beschreibung: Abstract The major and trace element concentrations of volcanic glass shards from visible tephra layers in the SG93 and SG06 cores from Lake Suigetsu, central Japan, were determined by femtosecond laser ablation–inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry. The glass‐shard analyses, together with the petrographic properties of the tephra samples, allow the Suigetsu tephra layers to be broadly classified into tephras derived from calderas on Kyushu Island, and from Daisen and Sambe volcanoes in the Chugoku district of southwest Japan. The layers correlated with tephras from Kuju caldera and Daisen volcano, and with the younger Sambe tephras, have adakitic elemental features. A Suigetsu tephra sample correlated with the Sambe−Kisuki tephra based on petrographic properties has an elemental pattern similar to that of the Toya tephra from Hokkaido Island, northeast Japan. This match implies that tephras from northeast Japan, as well as Kyushu–Chugoku tephras, are possible correlatives of the Suigetsu tephra layers. Both petrographic properties and major–trace element data of volcanic glass shards are essential for robust tephra correlations, and hierarchical cluster analysis proved additionally useful in statistically evaluating relationships among the tephras.

Beschreibung: Journal of Quaternary Science, Volume 34, Issue 4-5, Page i-iii, May-June 2019.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT The chronologies of few Neolithic sites in the lower reaches of the Min River of China have been well investigated for the middle to late Holocene. In this study, the Hengyu Neolithic site in Fujian Province, South China, which has significant archaeological remains, was dated using blue‐stimulated optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon (AMS14C) techniques. The results, comprising nine OSL and three AMS 14C ages through the Neolithic sequence, provide new evidence towards understanding the relationship between environmental evolution and human activities in the middle to late Holocene in the Fuzhou Basin and coastal areas of South China. The ages of the site deposits vary from 6.83 to 1.67 ka and can be divided into two main phases: the Keqiutou–Tanshishan culture period and the Bronze culture period. In contrast, the persistent periods of ancient human activities at the Hengyu site seem to correspond to regional sea‐level changes and the East Asian winter monsoon as a secondary factor, which can affect human activities through sea‐level impacts. The warm and high sea level conditions provided a liveable environment for the ancient humans of Fujian and even South China. The ages of two building column bases are linked to the early stage of the Han dynasty, suggesting a potentially favourable habitation environment; that is, ancient humans occupied and settled this area for the long term within this time period, which is consistent with sea‐level changes and palynology records.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Madagascar is a complex ‘biodiversity hotspot’ with a rapidly dwindling biota. The Late Quaternary subfossil record includes many extinct species whose loss is attributed to natural climate change and human impacts. Investigation of the chronology of these events is challenging because few localities document pre‐Holocene communities not impacted by humans. Caves with extinct lemurs of large body size comprise some of Madagascar's richest subfossil sites, but provide only a limited window into the island's past. Open highland sites may have fewer primates, but may better document other megafauna, and allow the analysis of the role of the Central Highlands as refugia and as corridors for the dispersal of vertebrates before and after human arrival. Here we present a new subfossil site, Tsaramody (Sambaina basin, Central Madagascar), a high‐altitude wetland area that preserves a diverse late glacial and postglacial vertebrate community. Tsaramody bears testimony to fluctuations in the highland flora during the transition from glacial to postglacial conditions, and the composition of a highland vertebrate community before humans arrived. We compare its biota to those of other sites to begin to document the decline and disappearance of megafauna from some of Madagascar's open ecosystems – wetlands dominated by hippopotamuses and crocodylians.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Ring‐width dendrochronology, based on matching patterns of ring width variability, works best when trees are growing under significant environmental (climatic) stress. In the UK, and elsewhere in the temperate mid‐latitudes, trees generally experience low stress, so dating is more difficult and often fails. Oxygen isotopes in tree rings passively record changes in the isotopic ratios of summer precipitation, so they carry a strong common signal, which offers potential for cross‐dating. A master chronology covering the period 1200–2000 ce was constructed using the oxygen isotope ratios of the latewood cellulose of oak samples from central England. Two independent chronologies, developed to verify the isotopic signal, were combined (n = 10 trees) and the method was evaluated by dating timbers of known age and historical timbers that could not be dated by ring‐width dendrochronology, from both within and beyond the central England region. The agreement between samples and the master chronology is exceptionally strong, allowing the dating of timbers with far fewer rings than is normally the case for ring‐width dendrochronology. Tree‐ring oxygen isotope values are more suited to correlation analysis than tree‐ring widths, so it is possible to provide t‐values that conform to Student's t‐distribution and can be converted into probabilities of error. A protocol for assigning dates using ‘stable‐isotope dendrochronology’ is proposed, which has the potential to revolutionize the dating of wooden structures and artefacts, allowing the dating of short and invariant ring sequences from young, fast‐grown trees. Such samples are commonplace throughout the historical building and archaeological records and were, until now, considered impossible to date.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT This paper reviews some of the main advances in our understanding of human evolution over the last 1 million years, presenting a holistic overview of a field defined by interdisciplinary approaches to studying the origins of our species. We begin by briefly summarizing the climatic context across the Old World for the last 1 million years before directly addressing the fossil and archaeological records. The main themes in this work explore (i) recent discoveries in the fossil record over the last 15 years, such as Homo naledi and Homo floresiensis; (ii) the implications of palaeogenetics for understanding the evolutionary history of, and relationships between, Neanderthals, Denisovans and Homo sapiens; (iii) the interplay between physiology and metabolic demand, landscape use, and behavioural adaptations in the evolution of morphological and behavioural innovation; and (iv) recent advances in archaeological understanding for the behavioural record, in particular that of the Neanderthals. This paper seeks to provide a broad‐scale, holistic perspective of our current understanding of human evolution for the last 1 Ma, providing a reference point for researchers that can be built upon as new discoveries continue to develop the landscapes of human evolution.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT The Eifel Laminated Sediment Archive (ELSA), which comprises several cores from maar lakes, includes numerous tephra layers spanning the last 140 000 years. The sediment cores are dated by 14C and thermoluminescence as well as tuned to Greenland stadial–interstadial successions. Within the last glacial cycle, the Eifel Volcanic Fields are source to several widespread tephra layers, namely the Laacher See, Eltville, Rambach and Rocourt Tephra. However, a corresponding source volcano was so far only identified for the Laacher See Tephra. In this study we use glass and clinopyroxene geochemistry to link the remaining tephra layers to possible eruption centers within the West and East Eifel Volcanic Fields: while we demonstrate that the Eltville Tephra originated from an earlier eruption of the Laacher See Volcano at 24 300 a bp from within the East Eifel Volcanic Field, the Rambach and Rocourt Tephras are sourced from the West Eifel Volcanic Field and erupted from Wartgesberg at 27 900 a bp and Pulvermaar at 75 000 a bp, respectively. Phases of volcanic activity peaked at 10 000–30 000 and 60 000–80 000 a bp and were thus erupted around the temperature minima of the last glacial cycle. The longest phase of dormancy between individual vents was around 30 000 years long, within the last interglacial.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Impacts of Horizontal Resolution and Air–Sea Flux Parameterization on the Intensity and Structure of simulated Typhoon Haiyan (2013)〈/b〉〈br〉 Mien-Tze Kueh, Wen-Mei Chen, Yang-Fan Sheng, Simon C. Lin, Tso-Ren Wu, Eric Yen, Yu-Lin Tsai, and Chuan-Yao Lin〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-333,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In this study, we show that both the model horizontal resolution and air-sea flux parameterization can exert large influence on tropical cyclone intensity simulation but with different impacts on wind structures. We highlight the intensification and contraction of TC eyewall in response to the reduction of grid spacing. We also suggest that a well-developed eyewall is more conducive to the positive effect of flux formulas on TC development.

Beschreibung: Journal of Quaternary Science, Volume 34, Issue 7, Page i-iii, October 2019.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Oceanic island flora is vulnerable to future climate warming, which is likely to promote changes in vegetation composition, and invasion of non‐native species. Sub‐Antarctic islands are predicted to experience rapid warming during the next century; therefore, establishing trajectories of change in vegetation communities is essential for developing conservation strategies to preserve biological diversity. We present a Late‐glacial‐early Holocene (16 500–6450 cal a bp) palaeoecological record from Hooker's Point, Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas), South Atlantic. This period spans the Pleistocene‐Holocene transition, providing insight into biological responses to abrupt climate change. Pollen and plant macrofossil records appear insensitive to climatic cooling during the Late‐glacial, but undergo rapid turnover in response to regional warming. The absence of trees throughout the Late‐glacial‐early Holocene enables the recognition of far‐travelled pollen from southern South America. The first occurrence of Nothofagus (southern beech) may reflect changes in the strength and/or position of the Southern Westerly Wind Belt during the Late‐glacial period. Peat inception and accumulation at Hooker's Point is likely to be promoted by the recalcitrant litter of wind‐adapted flora. This recalcitrant litter helps to explain widespread peatland development in a comparatively dry environment, and suggests that wind‐adapted peatlands can remain carbon sinks even under low precipitation regimes.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT New cosmogenic 10Be surface exposure ages from 17 moraine boulders in the Mosquito Range of Colorado suggest that glaciers were at their late Pleistocene (Pinedale) maximum extent at ∼21–20 ka, and that ice recession commenced before ∼17 ka. These age limits suggest that the Pinedale Glaciation was synchronous within the Colorado Rocky Mountain region. Locally, the previous (Bull Lake) glaciation appears to have occurred no later than 117 ka, possibly ∼130 ka allowing for reasonable rock weathering rates. Temperature‐index modeling is used to determine the magnitude of temperature depression required to maintain steady‐state mass balances of seven reconstructed glaciers at their maximum extent. Assuming no significant differences in precipitation compared to modern values, mean annual temperatures were ∼8.1 and 7.5 °C lower, respectively, on the eastern and western slopes of the range with quantifiable uncertainties of + 0.8/−0.9 °C. If an average temperature depression of 7.8 °C is assumed for the entire range, precipitation differences − that today are 15–30% greater on the eastern slope due to the influence of winter/early spring snowfall − might have been enhanced. The temperature depressions inferred here are consistent with similarly derived values elsewhere in the Colorado Rockies and those inferred from regional‐scale climate modeling.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Throughout human history, communication and trade have been key to society. Because maritime trade facilitated the rapid transportation of passengers and freight at relatively low cost, harbours became hubs for traffic, trade and exchange. This general statement holds true for the Pergamenian kingdom, which ruled wide parts of today's western Turkey during Hellenistic times. Its harbour, located at the city of Elaia on the eastern Aegean shore, was used extensively for commercial and military purposes. This study reconstructs the coastal evolution in and around the ancient harbour of Elaia and compares the observed environmental modifications with archaeological and historical findings. We use micropalaeontological, sedimentological and geochemical proxies to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental dynamics and evolution of the ancient harbour. The geoarchaeological results confirm the archaeological and historical evidence for Elaia's primacy during Hellenistic and early Roman times, and the city's gradual decline during the late Roman period. Furthermore, our study demonstrates that Elaia holds a unique position as a harbour city during ancient times in the eastern Aegean region, because it was not greatly influenced by the high sediment supply associated with river deltas. Consequently, no dredging of the harbour basins is documented, creating exceptional geo‐bioarchives for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT The VAMPERS (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Permafrost Snow Model) has been coupled within iLOVECLIM, an earth system model. This advancement allows the thermal coupling between permafrost and climate to be examined from a millennial timescale using equilibrium experiments during the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and transient experiments for the subsequent deglaciation period (21–11 ka). It appears that the role of permafrost during both stable and transitional (glacial–interglacial) climate periods is seasonal, resulting in cooler summers and warmer winters by approximately ±2 °C maximum. This conclusion reinforces the importance of including the active layer within climate models. In addition, the coupling of VAMPERS also yields a simulation of transient permafrost conditions, not only for estimating areal changes in extent but also total permafrost gain/loss.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Central–southern Italy is one of the most suitable areas in the world for tephrostratigraphic studies, owing to the numerous volcanic sources with explosive activity during the Pleistocene. This work presents a systematic investigation of the chemical (trace elements) and isotopic (Sr and Nd) compositions of the main tephra markers within lacustrine sediments of the San Gregorio Magno Basin (Campania, southern Italy). This study: (i) provides full geochemical (trace elements and isotopes) characterization of eight significant Upper Pleistocene marker layers (X‐6, X‐5, C‐22, MEGT/Y‐7, CI/Y‐5, C‐10, Y‐3, NYT/C2) widely dispersed over the Mediterranean area; (ii) proposes a new tephra marker for Marine Isotope Stage 7, dated to 240 ka; and (iii) refines the correlations of tephra levels belonging to the investigated sequence. This study highlights that in most cases the Nd isotope composition of the glass and Sr isotope composition of the coexisting minerals are more reliable than 87Sr/86Sr of the glass, and hence is more helpful as a further tool for tephrostratigraphic correlations, as recently proposed in the literature. Moreover, this study is a first step towards the construction of a complete geochemical database for future tephra investigations in the Mediterranean area.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT New 10Be dates for glacial landforms in the Fuentes Carrionas area (Cantabrian Mountains, nothern Spain) are presented. Mapped and dated landforms in Fuentes Carrionas made possible a palaeoglacier reconstruction for four glacial stages. Results were compared to other nearby palaeoenvironmental proxies, so a final approximation on the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation that caused the four glacial advance stages is proposed. Glaciers reached their maximum extension at 36 ka, in a cold and dry environment. A second advance stage took place between 18.5 and 19.5 ka, during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), when glaciers advanced in a wet environment, with positive rainfall anomalies. A third glacial advance was dated during the Oldest Dryas, in which climate shifted to extremely cold and dry conditions. Finally, a last stage has been identified and proposed to the Younger Dryas, in which precipitation anomalies are negligible. Our results confirm some of the previously made palaeoglacial and palaeoenvironmental inferences for the Iberian Peninsula, as well as provide valuable and accurate anomalies, which are useful for climate modelling.

Beschreibung: Abstract The Kenai Peninsula of south‐central Alaska is a region of high topographic diversity with a complex glacial history. The sedimentary record of two small lakes [Sunken Island (SIL; 76 m a.s.l.) in the Kenai Lowlands; Choquette (CL; 527 m a.s.l.) in the Caribou Hills upland] exemplifies the postglacial development of the conifer–hardwood forest over an elevational range there. A herb–shrub tundra was established at both sites after deglaciation. By ~10.7 ka, poplar (Populus sp.) and alder (Alnus) dominated the lowland forest, while alder with minor poplar occurred at the upland site. Lake levels lower than today occurred during the early Holocene until ~8 ka. Subsequently at SIL, the near‐modern Kenai birch (Betula kenaica) – white spruce (Picea glauca) forest maintained prominence throughout the Holocene. However, at CL, alder dominated with dwarf birch and other subshrubs; small amounts of white spruce arrived ~5.2 ka. Black spruce (Picea mariana) grew around SIL by ~4 ka, but never gained prominence at CL. Fire, a prominent agent of disturbance in the Kenai Lowlands since ~8 ka, was essentially absent at the hardwood‐dominated upland site before ~6 ka, and rare thereafter. This suggests an important link between fire and spruce in Kenai forests.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Tephra shards for electron probe microanalysis are most efficiently extracted from peat using acid digestion, which removes organic material that hinders density separation methods. However, strong acids are known to alter glass chemical compositions, and several studies have examined how acid digestion affects rhyolitic volcanic glass. The focus on rhyolitic tephra in these studies leaves considerable uncertainty, as the dissolution rates of natural glasses (including tephra) are determined by the chemical composition and surface area/volume ratio, both of which vary in tephra deposits. Here, we use duplicate samples of basaltic, trachydacitic and rhyolitic tephra to examine physical and geochemical alteration following acid digestion. Scanning electron microscope imagery reveals no discernible degradation of glass surfaces, and electron probe microanalysis results from duplicate samples are statistically indistinguishable. These findings suggest the acid digestion protocol for organic peats does not significantly alter glass geochemistry regardless of shard morphologies or geochemical compositions.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Palaeo‐ice sheets are important analogues for understanding contemporary ice sheets, offering a record of ice sheet behaviour that spans millennia. There are two main approaches to reconstructing palaeo‐ice sheets. Empirical reconstructions use the available glacial geological and chronological evidence to estimate ice sheet extent and dynamics but lack direct consideration of ice physics. In contrast, numerically modelled simulations implement ice physics, but often lack direct quantitative comparison with empirical evidence. Despite being long identified as a fruitful scientific endeavour, few ice sheet reconstructions attempt to reconcile the empirical and model‐based approaches. To achieve this goal, model‐data comparison procedures are required. Here, we compare three numerically modelled simulations of the former British–Irish Ice Sheet with the following lines of evidence: (a) position and shape of former margin positions, recorded by moraines; (b) former ice‐flow direction and flow‐switching, recorded by flowsets of subglacial bedforms; and (c) the timing of ice‐free conditions, recorded by geochronological data. These model–data comparisons provide a useful framework for quantifying the degree of fit between numerical model simulations and empirical constraints. Such tools are vital for reconciling numerical modelling and empirical evidence, the combination of which will lead to more robust palaeo‐ice sheet reconstructions with greater explicative and ultimately predictive power.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT A high‐resolution study of coccolithophores in a sediment core from the East China Sea (ECS) region of the Northwest Pacific revealed that fluctuations in coccolithophore assemblages responded well to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) during 1901–2013. Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica were the most dominant species, accounting for more than 97% of all the ten detected species. The variation of the two dominant species showed a significant positive correlation, and they both increased during peak values of the PDO. Decreased stratification and increased nutrient supplementation from the bottom water induced by lower sea surface temperatures in the ECS, which were associated with high PDO values, were responsible for the dominant coccolithophore increase. Similarly, the increase of Calcidiscus leptoporus also corresponded to low‐temperature and high‐nutrient conditions associated with the cold phase in the ECS (positive phase of the PDO). The responses of decadal C. leptoporus variations to changes in cold and warm phases of the PDO in the Northwest and Northeast Pacific indicate that C. leptoporus preserved in sediment cores represents a potential indicator for reconstructing phase changes of the PDO during ancient times.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT The Holocene, which currently spans ~11 700 years, is the shortest series/epoch within the geological time scale (GTS), yet it contains a rich archive of evidence in stratigraphical contexts that are frequently continuous and often preserved at high levels of resolution. On 14 June 2018, the Executive Committee of the International Union of Geological Sciences formally ratified a proposal to subdivide the Holocene into three stages/ages, along with their equivalent subseries/subepochs, each anchored by a Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP). The new stages are the Greenlandian (Lower/Early Holocene Subseries/Subepoch) with its GSSP in the Greenland NGRIP2 ice core and dated at 11 700 a b2k (before 2000 CE); the Northgrippian (Middle Holocene Subseries/Subepoch) with its GSSP in the Greenland NGRIP1 ice core and dated at 8236 a b2k; and the Meghalayan (Upper/Late Holocene Subseries/Subepoch) with its GSSP in a speleothem from Mawmluh Cave, north‐eastern India, with a date of 4250 a b2k. We explain the nomenclature of the new divisions, describe the procedures involved in the ratification process, designate auxiliary stratotypes to support the GSSPs and consider the implications of the subdivision for defining the Anthropocene as a new unit within the GTS.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Arlington Canyon, in the northwest part of Santa Rosa Island, Channel Islands National Park, California, has been the setting for important scientific discoveries over the past half century, including the oldest human remains in North America, several vertebrate fossil sites, and purported evidence of a catastrophic extinction event at the end of the Pleistocene. The canyon is filled with alluvial sediments that date to between 16.4 and 1.1 ka (thousands of calibrated years before present), representing accumulation that occurred primarily in response to rising sea levels during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. The deposits are laterally discontinuous, exhibit a high degree of sedimentary complexity, and contain evidence of past climates and environments, including fossil bones, burned plant macrofossils, and invertebrate microfossils. Here, we show that it is critical to view the observations, data, and conclusions of scientific studies conducted in the canyon within this larger context so that localized facets of the spatially and temporally extensive alluvial deposits are not misinterpreted or misrepresented. By improving the baseline understanding of processes and drivers of sediment accumulation in Arlington Canyon, we hope to offer a solid foundation and better underpinning for future archeological, paleontological, and geochemical studies here and throughout the northern Channel Islands.

Beschreibung: Abstract Plateau icefields are a common form of mountain ice mass, frequently found in mid‐latitude to high‐arctic regions and increasingly recognized in the Quaternary record. Their top‐heavy hypsometry makes them highly sensitive to changes in climate when the equilibriaum line altitude (ELA) lies above the plateau edge, allowing ice to expand significantly as regional ELAs decrease, and causing rapid recession as climate warms. With respect to future climate warming, it is important to understand the controls on plateau icefield response to climate change in order to better predict recession rates, with implications for water resources and sea‐level rise. Improving knowledge of the controls on glacier recession may also enable further palaeoclimatic information to be extracted from the Quaternary glacial record. We use the distribution of moraines to examine topographic controls on Younger Dryas icefield recession in Scotland. We find that overall valley morphology influences the style of recession, through microclimatic and geometric controls, with bed gradient affecting moraine spacing. Ice mass reconfiguration may occur as recession progresses because ice divide migration could alter the expected response based on hypsometric distribution. These results add to a growing body of research examining controls on glacier recession and offer a step towards unravelling non‐linear ice mass behaviour.

Beschreibung: Journal of Quaternary Science, Volume 34, Issue 3, Page i-iii, April 2019.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT The eolian morphostratigraphic archive along the coast of central Chile (∼37–30°S) includes sand dune and buried paleosol sequences that despite their potential as a proxy for past environmental change, remain mostly unstudied north of Patagonia and south of the Atacama Desert core. Here, we present results of a stratigraphic and geochronologic study using the post‐infrared infrared stimulated luminescence signal stimulated at 225 °C (pIRIR225) of potassium‐rich feldspar that show the timing of past climate variability as evidenced from sand dune/buried paleosol couplets at 32°S. Our record shows that periods of sand dune accumulation during Marine Isotope Stages MIS 6, 4, 3 and 2 occurred within ice ages and associated low sea‐level stands, probably affected by similar to, or drier than, present conditions. Intercalated wetter periods inferred from pedogenesis occurred between 53 ± 4 and 52 ± 3 ka, at some time between 52 ± 3 and 36 ± 2 ka, and at some time between 31 ± 2 and 22 ± 2 ka, and reflect times when the southern westerlies rain belt shifted north. Our data reveal that central Chile experienced multi‐millennial periodicity of westerly precipitation throughout the last glacial period. We provide evidence for a humid local Last Glacial Maximum.

Beschreibung: Abstract Records of ice‐rafted debris (IRD) in sediments are commonly used as a proxy for iceberg production and to reconstruct past changes of glacier stability. However, the interpretation of IRD is complex as multiple processes modulate its variability. This study investigates the relationship between IRD variability and glaciological change by measuring IRD records from Upernavik Fjord and comparing these to frontal positions of Upernavik Isstrøm during the past century. Results show that the spatial variability of IRD deposition throughout the fjord is high, indicating that randomness inherent to IRD distorts the calving signal. However, we investigate whether IRD records can be combined to improve the reconstruction, as previously suggested, and show the importance of core site selection and number of cores on this approach. The outer‐fjord core compares relatively well to the observed front positions and this is reflected in the composite record: increased IRD deposition in 1937–1946, 1968–1980, and 1996–1999 occurred during periods of faster retreat. Comparison with climatic records shows that the calving episodes in the late ‘30 s/early ‘40 s and late ‘90 s are related to warm ocean and air temperatures, whereas intensified retreat and calving during the ‘70 s reflects partly an internal glacier response to the fjord geometry.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Pollen and spores from 110 samples from sediment core NS07‐25 from the Nansha Trough in the South China Sea (SCS) were analysed with a particular focus on reconstructing vegetation and climate change and identifying the sources of palynomorphs on the Sunda Shelf during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Palynomorph sources were identified using the Near Analysis function in ArcGIS with 62 data points of the pollen in surface sediment samples from the southern SCS. The results showed that during the LGM, pollen and spores came from the exposed Sundaland, whereas before and after the LGM, pollen and spores came from Borneo. Changes in vegetation and climate were inferred from pollen percentages, concentrations and influx and indicated that during the LGM, ferns, lowland rainforests, upper montane rainforests and lower montane forests were present on the north‐east part of the exposed Sunda Shelf but not over the entire Sunda Shelf. Climate during the LGM was cooler than it is today, but humidity was not substantially lower. During the LGM, grasses and shrubs did not cover the southern continental shelf of the SCS, possibly because they were located in the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Two gravity cores that penetrated Upper Pleistocene to Upper Holocene sediments in the NW Black Sea have been studied lithologically and microfaunally. The investigations have been coupled with isotopic, calcium carbonate and radiocarbon dating. Six ecological intervals have been distinguished based on changes in microfossil assemblages, giving new insights on the sea‐level and paleoenvironmental changes that took place in the last 25 000 a BP. For the Last Glacial Maximum the ostracod community contains a homogeneous brackish assemblage dominated by Candonidae, suggesting a salinity around 5–8‰. The salinity decrease (to 0.5–5‰) that started concomitantly with the first Meltwater Pulse during Heinrich Stadial 1 is mirrored by increasing diversity and abundance of microfaunal assemblages. This microfaunal increase reached maximum values within the Bølling–Allerød warm period. The shift from Loxoconchidae to Candonidae towards the top of the Younger Dryas suggests a slight increase in salinity. The Preboreal warming period is marked by an abundance increase of ostracod assemblages. During the Late Holocene, stable marine conditions set in, reflected by assemblages similar to those of the present‐day. Based on these data, the first marine influx into the Black Sea before 9390 a BP is assumed.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Accumulations of cave bear bones are common in Pleistocene cave sediments. The reasons for the deposition are usually clear, and believed to be associated with the hibernation behavior of bears. Although they are common, little is known about the post‐sedimentary processes that affect the assemblages. The cave bear bone accumulations from the Lower Weichselian layers of Biśnik Cave, Poland, represent an interesting case of intensive post‐depositional bone destruction. Bones are highly fragmented and rounded, although no traces of water currents have been detected in the stratigraphic series. In this paper we use the case of Biśnik Cave as an example of cave bear strata, to describe the taphonomic features of the abraded‐like bones and to recognize the underlying processes. We present a micromorphological study of rounded bones and surrounding sediments to increase knowledge of the depositional context in the cave environment. Micromorphological analysis of the sediments indicated in situ disintegration of bones rather than abrasion. The factor responsible here was internal stress, as opposed to the external pressure of mineral grains in the case of abrasion. We indicate frost action as a possible factor responsible for the post‐depositional bone disintegration.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉The impact of topography on seismic amplification during the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake〈/b〉〈br〉 Saad Khan, Mark van der Meijde, Harald van der Werff, and Muhammad Shafique〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-13,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In 2005, northern Pakistan was hit by a 7.6 magnitude earthquake. The epicenter was located near capital of the Pakistani territory of Azad Kashmir and also affected Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir region. It was believed that the local topography might have significant role in direct and indirect damage in the region. This study shows that the local topography played significant role in the earthquake induced damage in the region.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Brief communication: Remotely piloted aircraft systems for rapid emergency response: road exposure to rockfall in Villanova di Accumoli (central Italy)〈/b〉〈br〉 Michele Santangelo, Massimiliano Alvioli, Marco Baldo, Mauro Cardinali, Daniele Giordan, Fausto Guzzetti, Ivan Marchesini, and Paola Reichenbach〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 325-335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-325-2019, 2019〈br〉 The paper discusses the use of rockfall modelling software and photogrammetry applied to images acquired by RPAS to provide support to civil protection agencies during emergency response. The paper focuses on a procedure that was applied to define the residual rockfall risk for a road that was hit by an earthquake-triggered rockfall that occurred during the seismic sequence that hit central Italy on 24 August 2016. Road reopening conditions were decided based on the results of this study.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Characteristics of a Hailstorm over the Andean La Paz Valley〈/b〉〈br〉 Marcelo Zamuriano, Andrey Martynov, Luca Panziera, and Stefan Brönnimann〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-27,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This work investigates the formation of a hailstorm over the Tropical Bolivian Andes. Using the WRF atmospheric model, we are able to numerically reconstruct it and we assess the main factors (mountains, lake and surface heating) in the storm formation. We propose physical mechanisms that have the potential to improve the forecasting of similar events; which are known to have a big impact over the Bolivian Altiplano, especially the region near Titicaca lake.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Study on Site Amplification Factor Correction for Earthquake Early Warning System〈/b〉〈br〉 Quancai Xie, Qiang Ma, Jingfa Zhang, and Haiying Yu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-400,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This paper make deep evluation of a new mthod for modelling site amplification factor. Though implement this method and make simulation for different cases, we can find that this method show better performance than the previous method and JMA Report. We will better understanding the advantage and disadvantage of this method, although there are some problems needed to consider carefully and to be solved, it shows good potential to be used in the future earthquake early waring system in the world.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Communicating disaster risk? An evaluation of the availability and quality of flood maps〈/b〉〈br〉 Daniel Henstra, Andrea Minano, and Jason Thistlethwaite〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 313-323, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-313-2019, 2019〈br〉 Flood maps can help stakeholders and the public understand their flood risk. We evaluated the quality of publicly accessible flood maps in Canadian communities designated as flood risk areas. We found that most maps (62 %) are low quality (meeting less than half of the criteria) and the highest score was 78 % (seven of nine criteria met). Canada must make a more concerted effort to produce high-quality flood maps to support its international commitment to disaster risk reduction.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉The effect of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region on sea level anomalies at the Mediterranean Sea coast〈/b〉〈br〉 Piero Lionello, Dario Conte, and Marco Reale〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-6,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Large positive and negative sea level anomalies at the coast of the Mediterranean Sea are produced by cyclones moving along the Mediterranean storm track, which are mostly generated in the western Mediterranean. The wind around the cyclone center is the main cause of sea level anomalies when a shallow water fetch is present. The inverse barometer effect produces a positive anomaly near the cyclone pressure minimum and a negative anomaly at the opposite side of the Mediterranean Sea.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉The selection of directional sectors for the analysis of extreme wind speed〈/b〉〈br〉 Pedro Folgueras, Sebastián Solari, and Miguel Ángel Losada〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 221-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-221-2019, 2019〈br〉 Directional effects are often relevant when studying the extreme values of natural agents, such as wind, waves, or currents. The use of a priori defined divisions is a common but subjective way to address the problem and may not fit data well in certain cases. In this work, a rational method is presented for the selection of directional sectors that, taking into account statistical indicators of the data, leads to the definition of independent and statistically homogeneous sectors.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Delimitation of flood areas based on a calibrated a DEM and geoprocessing: case study on the Uruguay River, Itaqui, southern Brazil〈/b〉〈br〉 Paulo Victor N. Araújo, Venerando E. Amaro, Robert M. Silva, and Alexandre B. Lopes〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 237-250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-237-2019, 2019〈br〉 This paper aims to map flood hazard areas under the influence of the Uruguay River, Itaqui (southern Brazil), using a calibrated digital elevation model (DEM), historic river level data and geoprocessing techniques. Assessment of the areas that can potentially be flooded can help to reduce the negative impact of flood events by supporting the process of land-use planning in areas exposed to flood hazards.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉On the nexus between landslide susceptibility and transport infrastructure – an agent-based approach〈/b〉〈br〉 Matthias Schlögl, Gerald Richter, Michael Avian, Thomas Thaler, Gerhard Heiss, Gernot Lenz, and Sven Fuchs〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 201-219, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-201-2019, 2019〈br〉 Landslides are destructive events, threatening the integrity of land transport systems. This paper presents how road networks are vulnerable to landslides, with emphasis on the consequences for affected road users. Results show the merits of using agent-based traffic modelling to assess the impacts of road network interruptions on rural communities by providing insights into the characteristics of the population affected and the effects on its daily routine in terms of detour costs.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Global detection of rainfall triggered landslide clusters〈/b〉〈br〉 Susanne A. Benz and Philipp Blum〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-391,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This study aims to identify clusters of landslide events within a global database that are triggered by the same rainfall event. Results show that 14 % of all studied landslide events are actually part of a landslide cluster consisting of at least 10 events. However, in a more regional analysis this number ranges from 30 % for the West Coast of North America to 3 % in the Himalaya Region. These findings provide an improved understanding for managing landslide mitigations on a larger scale.

Beschreibung: Journal of Quaternary Science, Volume 34, Issue 2, Page i-iii, February 2019.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Significance of substrate soil moisture content for rockfall hazard assessment〈/b〉〈br〉 Louise M. Vick, Valerie Zimmer, Christopher White, Chris Massey, and Tim Davies〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-11,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Rockfall boulders can travel long distances down slope and it is important to predict how far to prevent fatalities. A comparison of earthquake data from New Zealand during summer and full-scale rockfall experiments in the same soil during winter shows that during dry seasons boulders travel further downslope because the soil is harder. When using predictive tools, engineers and geologists should take soil conditions (and seasonal variations thereof) in to account.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Flood risk assessment due to cyclone-induced dike breaching in coastal areas of Bangladesh〈/b〉〈br〉 Md Feroz Islam, Biswa Bhattacharya, and Ioana Popescu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 353-368, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-353-2019, 2019〈br〉 Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, has a dynamic delta with 123 polders. Cyclone-induced storm surges cause severe damage to these polders. This paper presents an investigation of the inundation pattern in a polder due to dike failure caused by storm surges and identifies possible critical locations of dike breaches. Moreover, the risk of flooding was assessed and probabilistic flood maps were generated for the breaching of dikes.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Speeding up and boosting tsunami warning in Chile〈/b〉〈br〉 Mauricio Fuentes, Sebastian Arriola, Sebastian Riquelme, and Bertrand Delouis〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-9,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This works provides a simple and fast approach to improve tsunami warning systems in the near field. A color-coded warning map is produced almost instantaneously after the seismic information is received. Time is crucial in the near field case, for instance, the tsunami waves generated in the chilean trench arrives at the coastline around 10–15 minutes. Seismic information takes 3–5 minutes to be ready, we produece a first warning map after 6 minutes of the earthquake origin time.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Reanalysis of the 1761 transatlantic tsunami〈/b〉〈br〉 Martin Wronna, Maria Ana Baptista, and Jorge Miguel Miranda〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 337-352, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-337-2019, 2019〈br〉 We investigate the source of the 1761 earthquake and tsunami. The reanalysis of the tsunami travel times agrees with an earlier suggested source area. We check the geodynamic setting of the area and place a fault as an extension to an identified fault and use numerical modelling to distinguish between two candidate sources. One of our theories is compatible with the geodynamic setting and reproduces well the observed tsunami parameters.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Landslides Data Assimilation Using TRIGRS Based on Particle Filtering〈/b〉〈br〉 Changhu Xue, Guigen Nie, Jie Dong, Shuguang Wu, Jing Wang, Xiuzhen Li, and Xiaogang Zhang〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-16,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This paper provides an approach to apply data assimilation method to stability analysis and parameter update and feedback in a landslide. The experiment is implemented by particle filter algorithm. The result FS sequence of TRIGRS output decreases continuously with time and the assimilation can effectively correct the FS of the model output. The RMSD of FS indicates the assimilation results can correct the estimation of TRIGRS output close to actual observations.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Simultaneous state-parameter estimation of rainfall-induced landslide displacement using data assimilation〈/b〉〈br〉 Jing Wang, Guigen Nie, Shengjun Gao, and Changhu Xue〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-24,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 It is necessary to do some prevention study of landslide hazard like the early warning and deformation prediction. This research proposes a new strategy to predict displacement of the landslide. Results confirm the accuracy and effectiveness of this method in displacement prediction, which can provide assistance in early risk assessment and landslide forecasting.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Assessing the tsunami mitigation effectiveness of the planned Banda Aceh Outer Ring Road (BORR), Indonesia〈/b〉〈br〉 Syamsidik, Tursina, Anawat Suppasri, Musa Al'ala, Mumtaz Luthfi, and Louise K. Comfort〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 299-312, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-299-2019, 2019〈br〉 This research aimed to assess the tsunami flow velocity and height reduction produced by a planned elevated road parallel to the coast of Banda Aceh called the Banda Aceh Outer Ring Road (BORR). The Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) was used to simulate eight scenarios of the tsunami. One of them was based on the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Two magnitudes of earthquake were used, that is, 8.5 and 9.15 〈i〉M〈/i〉〈sub〉w〈/sub〉. The elevated road can potentially mitigate the impacts of future tsunamis.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Coastal vulnerability assessment: through regional to local downscaling of wave characteristics along the Bay of Lalzit (Albania)〈/b〉〈br〉 Francesco De Leo, Giovanni Besio, Guido Zolezzi, and Marco Bezzi〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 287-298, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-287-2019, 2019〈br〉 This paper reviews the computation of vulnerability levels (VLs) of a coast to inundation with a known model. We refer to the original proposal, detailing the VL computation through an accurate investigation of the local wave climate. We prove that the resulting vulnerability is very sensitive due to the wave features taken into account, which have to be properly assessed. The research is the follow-up of a wider project set along the Bay of Lalzit (Albania).

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Basal records from nine lake basins, located within a small area inside the Younger Dryas Ra moraine in southern Norway, were analysed and radiocarbon dated. Six reworked shell fragments from the lowermost facies in five different basins date to the Bølling–Allerød chronozone and are interpreted to represent an ice‐free coastline before a Younger Dryas ice sheet readvance of at least 8 km. The widespread shell fragments within the Younger Dryas ice margin but pre‐dating the Younger Dryas are demonstrated using a systematic survey of the lowermost strata in a collection of lake basins. A further 13 dated samples, mostly in situ articulated bivalves found in clayey silt overlying the basal facies, yielded overlapping ages close to the Younger Dryas–Holocene boundary. The 13 shell dates, along with two additional similar ages obtained on terrestrial plant macrofossils from basal strata in two basins near the marine limit, provide a minimum‐limiting age of 11.6k cal a BP for ice sheet retreat from the Ra moraine. This suggests that the ice sheet in south‐east Norway retreated from its Younger Dryas maximum position nearly a thousand years later than previously assumed. Similar systematic approaches may lead to improved ice sheet reconstructions from other formerly glaciated coastlines.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Lateglacial submarine lake sediments are reported for the first time from the Kattegat Sea in southern Scandinavia. The Lateglacial sediments were collected from a vibrocore that contained, from top to bottom, Holocene marine muddy sand, Holocene brackish‐water mud, Early Holocene peat with remains of Betula pubescens and telmatic plants, Lateglacial lake deposits that are the focus of this paper, and homogenous sand. Radiocarbon dating of terrestrial plant remains from the Lateglacial sediments gave ages between 12 400 and 12 800 cal a bp, corresponding to the Younger Dryas. The Lateglacial sediments contain remains of Betula nana and other plants indicating a tundra‐like open landscape with dwarf shrub heaths, which is typical for the region. Remains of macrolimnophytes indicate shallow carbonate‐rich, cool lake waters. Remains of larvae of Trichoptera and Chironomidae dominate the invertebrate fauna and indicate a fairly species‐rich fauna. Half of the trichopteran taxa today have their distribution north of Denmark or show a generally northern distribution in Europe. The lake sediments are found at ∼ 24 m below sea level, and the presence of lake sediments shows that this part of Kattegat had not been transgressed by the sea during the Younger Dryas.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT A Late Holocene paleoenvironmental record was obtained from the Lagunillas cushion peatland (LP, 27°12′S, 69°17′W), located in the dry Puna of the western Central Andes. Ten radiocarbon dates build the chronology for the last 1800 cal a BP. Analyses of stable isotopes on cellulose (δ18Ocell, δ13Ccell) and geochemical proxies on organic matter (δ13COM, δ15Nbulk, TOC, TN, LOI, T535) were conducted to identify major paleoenvironmental changes in this record. Simultaneously, ambient water (δ18O, δ2H) and plant samples of the dominant species Oxychloe andina (δ18Ocell, δ13Ccell) reveal insights into modern conditions. The record reveals distinct multi‐centennial oscillations of peat layer thickness and δ18Ocell. Decomposition, changes in the dominating plant species as well as in plant parts (leaves/roots) can be excluded as driving factors for these oscillations. Thus, δ18Ocell seems to be externally forced and reflects humidity changes. Around 470 cal a BP a distinct change towards increased humidity occurred, lasting during the Little Ice Age until about 70 cal a BP. Humid conditions prevailed between 1530 and 1270 cal a BP. Increasing δ18Ocell values since 30 cal a BP mark a trend towards again increased aridity.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Understanding the distribution of C3 and C4 plants and its forcing mechanisms since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is important for anticipating their possible response to future climate change. The spatiotemporal pattern of C4 plant abundance on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) is complex and the dominant causal factors are contentious. Here, we use δ13C records of organic matter in paleosols from the CLP to reconstruct changes in the representation of C4 plants since the LGM. The results indicate that the relative abundance of C4 plants increased after the LGM, reaching a maximum during 10–6 ka bp, and then decreased. Spatially, the representation of C4 plants was characterized by increasing values from north‐west to south‐east. In addition, the smallest spatial difference (∼10%) in the representation of C4 plants between the north‐west and south‐east parts of the CLP was during the LGM, and the largest difference (∼30%) was during the early Holocene. We combined our findings with output from the BIOME4 model to study the sensitivity of C4 plants to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. The results suggest that increasing temperature was the dominant factor driving C4 plant expansion on the CLP since the LGM.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT The relationship between the Palaeolithic–Neolithic cultural transition and environmental changes is important for understanding human history. However, the timing and nature of human behaviour at the transition, and their relationship to local environmental conditions, remain poorly understood. The Yujiagou archaeological site in the Nihewan Basin, northern China, provides valuable chronological and archaeological information about cultural changes in northern China due to its continuous archaeological sequence of cultural layers from the Palaeolithic to Neolithic. In this study, we apply post‐infrared infrared stimulated luminescence (pIRIR) dating on individual feldspar grains to date the Yujiagou deposits. We provide a revised chronology for the archaeological sequence at the site. We combine these results with multi‐proxy climatic indicators to gain insights into palaeoenvironmental changes in the region. The results show that the age of the artefact‐bearing deposits ranges from 13.5 to 9.7 ka. Polished stones and pottery begin to occur in the archaeological layer around 13 ka, corresponding to a transitional period when the local climate changed from cold to warm. This site provides evidence for understanding the process that led to the regional transition from hunter‐gathering to farming.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉The Lituya Bay landslide-generated mega-tsunami – numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis〈/b〉〈br〉 José Manuel González-Vida, Jorge Macías, Manuel Jesús Castro, Carlos Sánchez-Linares, Marc de la Asunción, Sergio Ortega-Acosta, and Diego Arcas〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 369-388, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-369-2019, 2019〈br〉 In 1958, at Lituya Bay in Alaska, the largest tsunami wave ever recorded took place. Since then, its numerical simulation has been a challenge and no numerical model has been able to reproduce, in the real geometry of the bay, the more than 200 m wave and the extreme run-up (climbing of the water up on land) of 524 m. The aim of our research, in the framework of a collaboration between the University of Malága (Spain) and NOAA (US), was to fulfil this gap at the same time as verifying our model.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Annual Characterization of Regional Hydrological Drought using Auxiliary Information under Global Warming Scenario〈/b〉〈br〉 Zulfiqar Ali, Ijaz Hussain, and Muhammad Faisal〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-373,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Climate change and global warming scenario increase the odds of worsening drought. Therefore, precise characterization and regional monitoring of drought are the major challenge. In this paper, we provide a new way to formulate and improve temporal data of precipitation for the Standardized Drought Index (SDI) type tools. Results show that improved estimates are good candidates for modelling and monitoring hydrological drought with more precision.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉California earthquake insurance unpopularity: the issue is the price, not the risk perception〈/b〉〈br〉 Adrien Pothon, Philippe Gueguen, Sylvain Buisine, and Pierre-Yves Bard〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-29,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This paper investigates why earthquake insurance in California is so unpopular despite a significant risk. For that, homeowners’ behavior has been investigated based on the evolution of the earthquake insurance industry in California since its premises. This study shows that most of homeowners disregard earthquake insurance because the premium amount is too high and not because they underestimate the risk. We conclude that new insurance solutions must be designed to fill this protection gap.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Reducing uncertainty bounds of two-dimensional hydrodynamic model output by constraining model roughness〈/b〉〈br〉 Punit Kumar Bhola, Jorge Leandro, and Markus Disse〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-369,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The paper study investigates the use of measured water levels to reduce uncertainties bounds of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model output. Uncertainty assessment generally is not reported in practice due to the lack of best practices and too wide uncertainty bounds. Hence, a novel method to reduce the bounds by constraining the model parameter, mainly roughness, is presented. The operational practitioners as well as researchers benefits from the study in the field of flood risk management.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Multicriterion assessment framework of flood events simulated with the vertically mixed runoff model in semiarid catchments in the middle Yellow River〈/b〉〈br〉 Dayang Li, Zhongmin Liang, Yan Zhou, Binquan Li, and Yupeng Fu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-402,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Flood forecasting and simulation in semiarid regions are always poor, and a single criterion assessment provides limited information for decision making. Here, we propose a multicriterion assessment framework combining the absolute relative error, the flow partitioning and the confidence interval to assess the most striking feature of an event-based flood––the peak flow. Our results show that the accepted rates of flood events improve a lot under the multicriterion assessment framework.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉A stochastic event-based approach for flood estimation in catchments with mixed rainfall and snowmelt flood regimes〈/b〉〈br〉 Valeriya Filipova, Deborah Lawrence, and Thomas Skaugen〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1-2019, 2019〈br〉 This paper presents a stochastic event-based method for analysis of extreme floods, which uses a Monte Carlo procedure to sample initial conditions, snowmelt and rainfall. A study of 20 catchments in Norway shows that this method gives flood estimates that are closer to those obtained using statistical flood frequency analysis than a deterministic event-based model based on a single design storm.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Culture matters: Factors influencing natural hazard risk preparedness – a survey of Swiss households〈/b〉〈br〉 Elisabeth Maidl, David N. Bresch, and Matthias Buchecker〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-393,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Natural hazard risk management today aims to involve all actors possibly affected by damage. Citizens are regarded as responsible actors in risk mitigation. Practitioners therefore face the challenge of building social capacity towards such a culture of risk. Research on capacity building in Alpine countries, however, so far lacks empirical evidence on individual preparedness in the common population. This study for the first time provides insights for research and practice.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using logic tree approach – Patna District (India)〈/b〉〈br〉 Panjamani Anbazhagan, Ketan Bajaj, Karanpreet Matharu, Sayed S. R. Moustafa, and Nassir S. N. Al-Arifi〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-328,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 〈p〉PGA and SA distribution for Patna district is presented considering both classical and zoneless approach through logic tree frame work to capture the epistemic uncertainty. Seismicity parameters are calculated by considering completed and mixed earthquake data. Maximum magnitude was calculated using three methods namely incremental method, Kijko method and regional rupture characteristics approach. Best suitable GMPE was selected by carrying out 〈q〉efficacy test〈/q〉 using log likelihood. Uniform hazard response spectra have been compared with Indian standard BIS 1893. PGA varies from 0.38 g to 0.30 g from southern to northern periphery considering 2 % probability of exceedence in 50 years.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Efficacy of using Radar Induced Factors in Landslide Susceptibility Analysis: case study of Koslanda, Sri Lanka〈/b〉〈br〉 Ahangama Kankanamge Rasika Nishamanie Ranasinghe, Ranmalee Bandara, Udeni Gnanapriya Anuruddha Puswewala, and Thilantha Lakmal Dammalage〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-335,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Through the developments of radar and optical remote sensing in temporal, spectral, spatial, and global coverage, availability of images either at low cost or free of charge, large variety of applications are possible. This study assessed efficacy of Radar Induced Factors in identifying landslide susceptibility regions by considering the significance of radar inherent characteristics for disaster studies. With integration of radar factors, high and very low susceptibility regions are increased.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using nonhydrostatic model rainfalls. Part 2: Flood forecasting using 1600 member 4D-EnVAR predicted rainfalls〈/b〉〈br〉 Kenichiro Kobayashi, Apip, Le Duc, Tsutao Oizumi, and Kazuo Saito〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-343,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 Feasibility of flood forecasting with 1600 rainfall forecasts was investigated. The rainfall forecasts were obtained from an advanced data assimilation system. The high probability of flood occurrence was predicted, which could not be possible by the operational forecast. The necessity of emergency flood operation was shown with a long leading time. This suggests it is worth to invest on increasing numbers of meteorological ensembles to improve flood forecasting.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Study on the combined threshold for gully-type debris flow early warning〈/b〉〈br〉 Jian Huang, Theodoor Wouterus Johannes van Asch, Changming Wang, and Qiao Li〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 41-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-41-2019, 2019〈br〉 Wenjia gully is a typical gully-type debris flow, which has a large-scale catchment and great hazard risk to the local people. Based on the monitoring data for almost 6 years until now, the characteristics of debris-flow-triggering parameters (pore pressure and rainfall) have been analyzed, especially the relationship with debris flow occurrences. Then, a combined threshold has been presented and tested in order to provide a method for safeguarding the population in the region.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉What's streamflow got to do with it? A probabilistic simulation of the competing oceanographic and fluvial processes driving extreme along-river water levels〈/b〉〈br〉 Katherine A. Serafin, Peter Ruggiero, Kai A. Parker, and David F. Hill〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-347,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In coastal environments, extreme water levels driving flooding are often generated by many individual processes like storm surge, streamflow, and tides. To estimate flood drivers along a coastal river, we merge statistical simulations of ocean and river forcing with a hydraulic model to produce water levels. We find both ocean and river forcing are necessary for producing extreme flood levels like the 100-yr event, highlighting the need for considering compound events in flood risk assessments.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Study of the threshold for the POT method based on hindcasted significant wave heights of tropical cyclone waves in the South China Sea〈/b〉〈br〉 Zhuxiao Shao, Bingchen Liang, Huajun Li, Ping Li, and Dongyoung Lee〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-349,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 〈p〉An assessment of extreme significant wave heights is performed in the South China Sea (SCS), which is crucial for the coastal and offshore engineering in this area. Two significant factors influencing the assessment are the initial database and the assessing method. The initial database is a basic for assessment, and the assessing method is used to extrapolate appropriate return significant wave heights based on this database during a period. In this study, a 40-year (1975–2014) hindcasted significant wave height of tropical cyclone waves is adopted as the initial database. Based on this database, the peak significant wave height of every tropical cyclone wave is directly extracted as the initial sample; the independent and identically distributed assumption is satisfied; and the interference for the selection of the sample is avoided. The peak over threshold (POT) method with the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) model is employed to extract the sufficiently large and high sample for model estimation. The peak excesses over a sufficiently high value (i.e., threshold) are fitted; thus, the return significant wave heights are highly dependent on the threshold. To determine the unique threshold for the POT method, characteristics of tropical cyclone waves are researched. The research results reveal that the separation value shown in the distribution of the initial sample is suitable for sampling in the SCS. Because the separation value is within the stable threshold range and the asymptotic tail approximation and estimation uncertainty are reasonable, the selected threshold is suitable and the corresponding return significant wave height is reliable.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈b〉The impact of drought on the productivity of two rainfed crops in Spain〈/b〉〈br〉 Marina Peña-Gallardo, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, and Santiago Beguería〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-1,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Drought events are of great importance in most Mediterranean climate regions and the impacts caused on rainfed crops are particularly evident. In this study the impacts of drought on two representative rainfed crops in Spain (wheat and barley) are assessed by testing various worldwide drought indices and two datasets at different spatial resolution.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Analysis of Spatiotemporal variations in mid-upper tropospheric methane during the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake by three indices〈/b〉〈br〉 Jing Cui and Xuhui Shen〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-342,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 〈p〉This research studied the spatiotemporal variation in methane in the mid-upper troposphere during the Wenchuan earthquake (12 May, 2008) using AIRS retrieval data and discussed the methane anomaly mechanism. Three indices were proposed and used for analysis. Our results show that the methane concentration increased significantly in 2008, with an average increase of 5.12 * 10〈sup〉−8〈/sup〉, compared to the average increase of 1.18 * 10〈sup〉−8〈/sup〉 in the previous five years. The Alice and Diff indices can be used to identify methane concentration anomalies. The two indices showed that the methane concentration distribution before and after the earthquake broke the distribution features of the background field. As the earthquake approached, areas of high methane concentration gradually converged towards the west side of the epicenter from both ends of the Longmenshan fault zone. Moreover, a large anomalous area was centered at the epicenter eight days before the earthquake occurred, and a trend of strengthening, weakening and strengthening appeared over time. The Gradient index showed that the vertical direction obviously increased before the main earthquake, and the value was positive. The gradient value is negative during coseismic or postseismic events. The gradient index reflects the gas emission characteristics to some extent. We also determined that the methane release was connected with the deep crust-mantle stress state, as well as microfracture generation and expansion. However, due to the lack of any technical means to accurately identify the source and content of methane in the atmosphere before the earthquake, an in-depth discussion has not been conducted, and further studies on this issue may be needed.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Simulation of Fragmental Rockfalls Detected Using Terrestrial Laser Scans from Rock Slopes in South-Central British Columbia, Canada〈/b〉〈br〉 Zac Sala, D. Jean Hutchinson, and Rob Harrap〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-321,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The work carried out for this study is part of a collaborative research program studying the impact of ground hazards on transportation infrastructure in Canada. The focus of the paper is the testing and application of a new simulation technique which can model the movement of falling rock material. These initial tests show that our simulation technique is capable of re-producing material accumulations from rockfall events which occurred above a section of railway in British Columbia, Canada.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉GIS-based earthquake-triggered landslide susceptibility mapping with an integrated weighted index model in Jiuzhaigou region of Sichuan Province, China〈/b〉〈br〉 Yaning Yi, Zhijie Zhang, Wanchang Zhang, Qi Xu, Cai Deng, and Qilun Li〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-8,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 On 8 August 2017, a Ms 7.0 earthquake struck the Jiuzhaigou region of Sichuan Province which triggered numerous landslides. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map was generated by using an integrated weighted index model. Results indicated that the integrated model has superior fitting performance and predictive capability. We expect that the generated landslide susceptibility map can be served as the scientific basis to mitigate hazards of the earthquake-triggered landslides.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Tsunamigenic potential of a Holocene submarine landslide along the North Anatolian Fault (northern Aegean Sea, off Thasos island): insights from numerical modelling 〈/b〉〈br〉 Alexandre Janin, Mathieu Rodriguez, Dimitris Sakellariou, Vasilis Lykousis, and Christian Gorini〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 121-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-121-2019, 2019〈br〉 Here we present new numerical simulations showing that Holocene submarine landslides along the North Anatolian Fault in the Aegean Sea may have triggered tsunamis higher than the ones expected for earthquake sources. During the Holocene, the shore facing the city of Alexandroupoli may have been impacted by tsunami up to 1.65 m at the coastline.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉A method of deriving operation-specific ski run classes for avalanche risk management decisions in mechanized skiing〈/b〉〈br〉 Reto Sterchi and Pascal Haegeli〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 269-285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-269-2019, 2019〈br〉 We used a revealed preference approach and identified patterns in risk management decisions of mechanized skiing operations. Our results show that terrain choices of experienced guides depend on a much broader set of factors beyond just the avalanche hazard, including skiing experience or accessibility due to weather. The identified high-resolution ski run hierarchies provide new opportunities for examining professional avalanche risk management practices and developing meaningful decision aids.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Response time to flood events using a social vulnerability index (ReTSVI)〈/b〉〈br〉 Alvaro Hofflinger, Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, and Arturo Vallejos-Romero〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 251-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-251-2019, 2019〈br〉 In this work, we propose a novel methodology (ReTSVI) to integrate a social vulnerability index into flood hazard methodologies. ReTSVI combines a series of modules that are pieces of information that interact during an evacuation, such as evacuation rate curves, mobilization, inundation models, and social vulnerability indexes, to create an integrated map of the evacuation rate in a given location.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉From examination of natural events a proposal for risk mitigation of lahars by a cellular automata methodology: a case study for Vascún valley, Ecuador〈/b〉〈br〉 Valeria Lupiano, Francesco Chidichimo, Guillermo Machado, Paolo Catelan, Lorena Molina, Salvatore Straface, Gino M. Crisci, and Salvatore Di Gregorio〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-406,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 A method for risk mitigation of secondary lahars, triggered by violent rainfalls, is proposed as alternative to works for their containment or deviation, that could cause future disasters. It is based on the controlled generation of small lahars as a result of collapse of frail dams by backfill, forming momentary ponds as in natural cases. LLUNPIY verifies by simulation path, velocity, thickness, erosion of lahars, that could be produced; a complex case study for Vascún Valley, Ecuador is shown.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Comparing the efficiency of hypoxia mitigation strategies in an urban, turbid tidal river, using a coupled hydro sedimentary–biogeochemical model〈/b〉〈br〉 Katixa Lajaunie-Salla, Aldo Sottolichio, Sabine Schmidt, Xavier Litrico, Guillaume Binet, and Gwenaël Abril〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-381,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 〈p〉In view of future coastal hypoxia widespreading, it is essential to define management solutions to preserve a good quality of coastal ecosystems. The lower Tidal Garonne River (TGR, SW France), characterized by the seasonal presence of a turbidity maximum zone and urban water discharges, is subject to episodic hypoxia events during summer low river flow periods. The future climatic conditions (higher temperature; summer droughts) but also an increasing urbanization could enhance hypoxia risks near the city of Bordeaux in the next decades. A 3D model of dissolved oxygen (DO), which couples hydrodynamics, sediment transport and biogeochemical processes, is used to assess the efficiency of different management solutions on TGR oxygenation during summer low-discharge periods. We have runned different scenarios of reduction of urban sewage overflows, displacement of urban discharges downstream from Bordeaux, and/or temporary river flow support during summer period. The model shows that each option limits hypoxia, but with variable efficiency over time and space. Sewage overflow reduction improves DO levels only locally near the city of Bordeaux. Downstream relocation of wastewater discharges allows to reach better oxygenation level in the lower TGR. The support of low river flow limits the upstream TMZ propagation and dilutes TGR waters with well-oxygenated river waters. Scenarios combining wastewater network management and low water replenishment indicate an improvement in water quality over the entire TGR. These modelling outcomes constitute important tools for local water authorities to develop the most appropriate strategies to limit hypoxia in TGR.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Using cellular automata to simulate wildfire propagation and to assist in fire management〈/b〉〈br〉 Joana Gouveia Freire and Carlos Castro DaCamara〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 169-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-169-2019, 2019〈br〉 Cellular automata are useful tools to simulate wildfire propagation. We design a cellular automaton to simulate a severe wildfire that took place in Portugal in 2012 and resulted in almost 25 000 ha burned. The explosive stage is adequately modeled when refining the role played by the wind in fire spreading. Results show a probability of ignition out of the limits of the observed scar, information that may help choose where to allocate resources for firefighting.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Laboratory and field tests and distinct element analysis of dry granular flows and segregation processes〈/b〉〈br〉 Yung Ming Cheng, Wing Hong Ivan Fung, Liang Li, and Na Li〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 181-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-181-2019, 2019〈br〉 The work in this paper can be useful for government engineers who need to make a decision on which debris flow barrier to use and assess the consequences of debris flow. Although the experiments in this paper are relatively simple, a deeper understanding of the debris flow process can be enhanced with the results in the present study.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Real-time monitoring and FEMLIP simulation of a rainfall-induced rockslide〈/b〉〈br〉 Zhaohua Li, Zhigang Tao, Yuanjun Jiang, Qian Lv, Felix Darve, and Manchao He〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 153-168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-153-2019, 2019〈br〉 〈p〉Rockslides are a common and devastating problem affecting mining and other engineering activities all over the world; consequently, there have been many studies into their prediction and prevention. This study focused on a recent rockslide in an open-pit mine in Liaoning Province, China. The stability of the rock slope under excavation and rainfall conditions was monitored using an efficient real-time monitoring system. A further numerical analysis was performed using the finite element method with Lagrangian integration points (FEMLIP), and two forms of the normalized global second-order work were calculated to analyze the stability of the rock slope. In fact for the future it would be very interesting to compare measurements and simulations in real time, and not only to develop back computations after failure. The numerical results indicate that the rock slope remained stable during excavation, yet lost stability after subsequent rainfall. Water infiltration, along with a major geological discontinuity, degraded the strength of the weak zone and induced the rockslide. The monitoring approach presented its robustness and generality, and was worth being generalized. The numerical approach proposed the evolution of the safety factor, the monitoring data were compared, and the mechanism of the rockslide was determined. It could be used as an assistant tool for disaster prediction.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Economic damage and spillovers from a tropical cyclone〈/b〉〈br〉 Manfred Lenzen, Arunima Malik, Steven Kenway, Peter Daniels, Ka Leung Lam, and Arne Geschke〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 137-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-137-2019, 2019〈br〉 We use the Industrial Ecology Virtual Laboratory to analyse the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Debbie on the Australian economy. We show that industries and regions that were not directly affected by storm and flood damage suffered significant job and income losses, highlighting that producers in modern economies are strongly interconnected - initially localised production shortfalls can ripple through entire upstream supply-chain networks and severely affect regional and national economies.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉SMC-Floods database: A high resolution press database on floods for the Spanish Mediterranean Coast (1960–2015)〈/b〉〈br〉 Salvador Gil-Guirado, Alfredo Pérez-Morales, and Francisco Lopez-Martinez〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-10,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In this study the SMC-Flood Database for the municipalities of the Mediterranean coast of mainland Spain is presented. This database has enabled the reconstruction of 3008 cases of flooding on a municipal scale between 1960 and 2015. The data analysis reveals a growing trend in the frequency and area affected by floods. The main novelty lies in the fact that we have detected a clear latitudinal gradient of growing intensity and severity of floods with a north–south direction.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Chilling accumulation in temperate fruit trees in Spain under climate change〈/b〉〈br〉 Alfredo Rodríguez, David Pérez-López, Enrique Sánchez, Ana Centeno, Iñigo Gómara, Alessandro Dosio, and Margarita Ruiz-Ramos〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-392,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Temperate fruit trees account for almost half of the global fruit production. Fruit trees stop their growth during the coldest months of the year until meeting a required cold accumulation. Under future global warming scenarios, a reduction in cold accumulation in Spain is projected. This threatens the viability of some actual tree crops and varieties in some areas, but other varieties with less requirements can be used. Our results allow adapting future tree plantations under climate change.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉From rapid visual survey to multi-hazard risk prioritisation and numerical fragility of school buildings in Banda Aceh, Indonesia〈/b〉〈br〉 Roberto Gentile and Carmine Galasso〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-397,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 This paper introduces the INSPIRE index, which quantifies seismic risk of reinforced concrete buildings relatively to a portfolio. A rapid visual survey form is also proposed, which allows to (1) calculate the INSPIRE index, (2) calculate a tsunami risk index, (3) define archetype buildings to be analysed in more detail. The effectiveness of such instruments is demonstrated with an application to 85 school buildings in Indonesia, also comparing the results with more detailed computer simulations.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉LES Modeling of Tsunami-like Solitary Wave Processes over Fringing Reefs〈/b〉〈br〉 Yu Yao, Tiancheng He, Zhengzhi Deng, Long Chen, and Huiqun Guo〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-376,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Tsunami can be destructive when it inundates the coastal areas. In recent years, the positive role of coral reefs in mitigating the tsunami waves has aroused the attentions among the scholars. We therefore investigate the tsunami wave interaction with a reef profile via a sophisticated numerical model. We find that the low-lying coastal areas, fringed by coral reefs with milder back-reef beaches and smaller lagoons, are less susceptible to the coastal inundation during a tsunami event.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Characteristics and influencing factors of rainfall-induced landslide and debris flow hazards in Shaanxi Province, China〈/b〉〈br〉 Ke Zhang, Sheng Wang, Hongjun Bao, and Xiaomeng Zhao〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 93-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-93-2019, 2019〈br〉 We investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics of landslide and debris flow hazards in Shaanxi Province and quantified the relationships between the occurrence rates of the two hazards and their influencing factors, including antecedent rainfall amount, rainfall duration, rainfall intensity, terrain slope, land cover type and soil type. Rainfall amount, duration, and intensity and slope are the dominant factors controlling slope stability across this region.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Flash floods versus river floods – a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviour〈/b〉〈br〉 Jonas Laudan, Gert Zöller, and Annegret H. Thieken〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-407,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The paper focuses on psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods on affected individuals. Since the connection between psychological characteristics and protection motivation is not yet fully understood, potential coherences are investigated with regard to both flood types. As a main result, the frequency of remembering an event seems to be positively connected to a greater willingness to protect oneself, especially if affected by a weaker flood event.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Atmospheric conditions of extreme precipitation events in western Turkey for the period 2006–2015〈/b〉〈br〉 Bulent Oktay Akkoyunlu, Hakki Baltaci, and Mete Tayanc〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 107-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-107-2019, 2019〈br〉 〈p〉This paper investigates the precipitation types and background physical mechanisms of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) over western Turkey during the period 2006–2015. The EPEs are described as the precipitation values above the 90th percentile obtained from the hourly precipitation dataset, which has high spatial resolution. Precipitation types associated with EPEs are identified by using radar outputs and the Lamb weather type (LWT) approach. It is found that EPEs occurred more frequently in the Marmara and Aegean regions during autumn and winter months. In Marmara, mainly 21 %, 17 %, and 15 % of total autumn EPEs show convective, cyclonic, and sea-effect precipitation characteristics, respectively. While convective EPEs are seen more commonly in the southern portions, cyclonic and sea-effect-originated EPEs mainly affect the southwest and northeastern parts of Marmara. Among these three precipitation types, convective mechanisms generally produce more intense daily precipitation (66.1 mm on average) in the Marmara Region under the proper synoptic conditions (high-pressure center over the Balkan Peninsula and low-pressure center over the eastern Mediterranean). Based on the hourly observations, convective types of extreme precipitation (EP) show two peak values during afternoon and evening times of the day and are linked to diurnal heating. In terms of the Aegean Region, cyclone-originated EP, which includes 65 % of the total winter EPEs, is more common in the whole territory and reaches its peak value during the early hours of the day.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈b〉〈q〉We can help us〈/q〉: Does Community Resilience Buffer Against the Negative Impact of Flooding on Mental Health?〈/b〉〈br〉 Torsten Masson, Sebastian Bamberg, Michael Stricker, and Anna Heidenreich〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-389,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In the current study (〈i〉N〈/i〉 = 118), we found evidence for a buffering effect of community resilience (as a form of social support) on post-disaster mental health and life satisfaction. Our work shows that previous work might has underestimated the effect of social support on post-disaster adjustment. Applying (statistical) moderator analysis, the current work contributes to the discussion on the role of social factors for mental health outcomes of flooding.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉A spatial multicriteria prioritizing approach for geo-hydrological risk mitigation planning in small and densely urbanized Mediterranean basins〈/b〉〈br〉 Guido Paliaga, Francesco Faccini, Fabio Luino, and Laura Turconi〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 53-69, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-53-2019, 2019〈br〉 Planning geo-hydrological risk mitigation strategies is crucial in contexts of strong urbanization, high population density and great morphological heterogeneity. The paper addresses possible support in comparing small catchments on a quantitative basis and realizing a ranking among them: pointing out the more urgent situations and the relative factors may result in optimizing economic investments in prevention works.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Landslides near Enguri dam (Caucasus, Georgia) and possible seismotectonic effects〈/b〉〈br〉 Alessandro Tibaldi, Paolo Oppizzi, John Gierke, Thomas Oommen, Nino Tsereteli, and Zurab Gogoladze〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 71-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-71-2019, 2019〈br〉 In the framework of the NATO Science for Peace and Security Program, we have increased the knowledge on the geohazards affecting the Enguri hydroelectrical plant (Caucasus, Georgia). 2 km from the dam, active deformation (2–5 cm yr〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉) affects a slope facing the water reservoir. Our field, seismological and numerical analyses show that the worst scenario is represented by seismic shaking with a local peak ground acceleration capable of generating an unstable rock volume of up to 48 ± 12 × 10〈sup〉6〈/sup〉 m〈sup〉3〈/sup〉.

Beschreibung: 〈b〉Formation of a multi-translational reactivated ancient landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China〈/b〉〈br〉 Shilin Luo, Xiaoguang Jin, Da Huang, and Tantan Zhu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-399,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The field survey and laboratory tests were conducted and analyzed in detail. A conceptual model was proposed to elaborate the formation process and mechanism of this instability. The structural characteristic of mobilized material, rupture surface, topography saltation, and seasonal variation of groundwater exposure could be regarded as valid proofs in identifying ancient landslides. Long-term monitoring and emergency civil protection actions are necessary.

Beschreibung: Abstract On the basis of a key model of the appearance of hematite and goethite in some Chinese and European loess successions, paleosols generally contain higher proportions of hematite formed by pedogenic processes during warm and humid interglacials, while loess contains sedimentary goethite deposited during colder, glacial periods. Rock magnetic measurements were conducted on samples from Paks (Hungary) loess, revealing an anomalous case. Sediments were found to contain higher amounts of hematite and/or goethite, while the well‐developed paleosols were found to be lacking in hematite but had significant amounts of magnetite and maghemite. This observation demonstrates that the character of pedogenic magnetic mineral alteration and neoformation differs from the hematite/goethite model; the model is therefore not applicable to the Paks succession, possibly due to differences in the regional paleoclimate and pedogenic environment. The results indicate the existence of a further model, in which hematite formation is not significant in the course of pedogenesis.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Quantitative climate reconstructions from pollen typically rely on empirical relationships between pollen abundances or assemblages and climate, such as the modern analogue technique. However, these techniques may be problematic when applied to fossil sequences, as they cannot separate anthropogenic from climatic influence on pollen assemblages. Here, we reconstruct Mid‐ to Late Holocene summer aridity in the Middle Atlas, Morocco, using stable carbon isotope analysis of isolated fossil Cedrus pollen. This approach is based on well‐documented plant physiological responses to moisture stress and is therefore independent of vegetation composition. We find that there has been a general long‐term trend of increasing summer aridity in the region during the last 5000 years to the present day. The gradual decline of Cedrus atlantica forest in the Late Holocene follows this aridity trend. Additionally, we show how isolating a specific pollen type for carbon isotope analysis yields a robust climate signal, versus using pollen concentrates or bulk sediment. Our findings indicate that climate has become drier in the region and confirms the Mid‐ to Late Holocene aridification trend observed more widely in the western Mediterranean, using a novel proxy for this region with good potential for wider application in other environments.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT A tephra record is presented for a sediment core from Llyn Llech Owain, south Wales, spanning the early‐ to mid‐Holocene. Seven cryptotephra deposits are discovered with three thought to correlate with known eruptions and the remaining four considered to represent previously undocumented events. One deposit is suggested to correlate with the ~6.9 cal ka bp Lairg A tephra from Iceland, whereas more distant sources are proposed as the origin for two of the tephra deposits. A peak of colourless shards in early‐Holocene sediments is thought to tentatively correlate with the ~9.6 cal ka bp Fondi di Baia tephra (Campi Flegrei) and a second cryptotephra is tentatively correlated with the ~3.6 cal ka bp Aniakchak (CFE) II tephra (Alaska). The Fondi di Baia tephra has never been recorded beyond proximal sites and its discovery in south Wales significantly extends the geographical distribution of ash from this eruption. The remaining four cryptotephra deposits are yet to be correlated with known eruptions, demonstrating that our current understanding of widespread tephra deposits is incomplete. This new tephra record highlights the potential for sites at more southerly and westerly locations in northwest Europe to act as repositories for ash from several volcanic regions.

Beschreibung: Journal of Quaternary Science, Volume 34, Issue 6, Page i-iii, August 2019.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT Five cores from the southern Tyrrhenian and Ionian seas were studied for their tephra and cryptotephra content in the 4.4–2.0 ka time interval. The chronological framework for each core was obtained by accelerator mass spectrometry 14C dating, the occurrence of distinct marker tephra and stratigraphic correlation with adjacent records. Tephrochronology allowed us to correlate the analyzed deposits with tephra markers associated with Somma‐Vesuvius (79 ad), Ischia Island (Cretaio), Mt Etna (FG, FL and FS) and Campi Flegrei (Astroni‐Agnano Monte Spina) events. For the first time in the marine setting, a large single glass data set is provided for the Late Holocene Etnean marker beds including the FS tephra (ca. 4.3 ka). Moreover, unknown deposits from Lipari (ca. 2.2–2.0 ka) and Vulcano (3.6–3.3 ka) are also recognized at more distal sites than previously reported. These results contribute to improve the high‐resolution tephrostratigraphic framework of the central Mediterranean Sea. They also provide new insights into the chemical composition and dispersal pattern of tephras that can be used as inter‐archive tools for regional and ‘local’ stratigraphic correlations and for addressing paleoclimate research.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT The Azores Archipelago is one of the most active volcanic areas in the North Atlantic region. Approximately 30 eruptions have been reported over the last 600 years with some major VEI 5 (Volcanic Explosivity Index) eruptions further back in time. The geochemical composition of associated tephra‐derived glass, however, is not well characterized. An Azorean origin of cryptotephras found in distal areas such as North Africa, the British Isles and Greenland has been suggested, but proximal data from the Azores are scarce and the correlations have only been tentative. These tephras have a traychtic composition, which excludes an Icelandic origin. In a previous study, we presented major element analyses of proximal tephra‐derived glass from five Holocene eruptions on the Azores Islands. There is a striking geochemical similarity between tephras from volcanoes on São Miguel and Irish cryptotephras, and especially with eruptives from the Furnas volcano. Here we present new analyses of proximal tephras that confirm and strengthen a link between Furnas and cryptotephras found in south‐west Ireland. We also suggest a correlation between a previously unsourced tephra found in a Swedish bog with an eruption of the Sete Cidades volcano c. 3880 a cal BP.

Beschreibung: ABSTRACT The 8.2 ka bp cooling event is assumed to be the most clearly marked abrupt climate event in the Holocene at northern mid‐ to high latitudes. In this study, we simulate the vegetation responses to the 8.2 ka bp climate change event over Europe and Northern Africa. Our results show that all dominant plant functional types (PFTs) over Europe and North Africa respond to these climate changes, but the magnitude, timing and impact factor of their responses are different. Compared with pollen‐based vegetation reconstructions, our simulation generally captures the main features of vegetation responses to the 8.2 ka bp event. Interestingly, in Western Europe, the simulated vegetation after perturbation is different from its initial state, which is consistent with two high‐resolution pollen records. This different vegetation composition indicates the long‐lasting impact of abrupt climate change on vegetation through eco‐physiological and ecosystem demographic processes, such as plant competition. Moreover, our simulations suggest a latitudinal gradient in the magnitude of the event, with more pronounced vegetation responses to the severe cooling in the north and weaker responses to less severe cooling in the south. This effect is not seen in pollen records.

Beschreibung: Abstract The interplay of eustatic and isostatic factors causes complex relative sea‐level (RSL) histories, particularly in paraglacial settings. In this context the past record of RSL is important in understanding ice‐sheet history, earth rheology and resulting glacio‐isostatic adjustment. Field data to develop sea‐level reconstructions are often limited to shallow depths and uncertainty exists as to the veracity of modelled sea‐level curves. We use seismic stratigraphy, 39 vibrocores and 26 radiocarbon dates to investigate the deglacial history of Belfast Lough, Northern Ireland, and reconstruct past RSL. A typical sequence of till, glacimarine and Holocene sediments is preserved. Two sea‐level lowstands (both max. −40 m) are recorded at c. 13.5 and 11.5k cal a bp. Each is followed by a rapid transgression and subsequent periods of RSL stability. The first transgression coincides temporally with a late stage of Meltwater Pulse 1a and the RSL stability occurred between c. 13.0 and c. 12.2k cal a bp (Younger Dryas). The second still/slowstand occurred between c. 10.3 and c. 11.5k cal a bp. Our data provide constraints on the direction and timing of RSL change during deglaciation. Application of the Depth of Closure concept adds an error term to sea‐level reconstructions based on seismic stratigraphic reconstructions.

Beschreibung: Abstract The use of high‐resolution and highly precise age models is essential for quantitative environmental reconstructions. To assess the reliability of pollen as a chronometer in laminated lake sediments, pollen traps and lake cores, statistical methods were used to study seasonal pollen signals. The results showed that (a) the pollen assemblages from air traps and lake/reservoir surface sediment traps in the north‐western Loess Plateau of China displayed distinct seasonal patterns, which were confirmed by nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS); and (b) The pollen assemblages of the dark and light layers in the Zhenhu Lake cores allowed detection of the seasonality of sediment deposition based on the results of the pollen traps. The NMDS method also showed statistically significant differences between the pollen assemblages of the dark and light layers. Furthermore, instrumental monitoring data and characteristic time markers of historical events (1958 and 2011) were used to cross‐check the chronologies obtained by the pollen assemblages, and the results strengthened the credibility and reliability of pollen as a chronometer.