ALBERT

Description: Review Article: On the relation between the seismic activity and the Hurst exponent of the geomagnetic field at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2189-2194, 2013 Author(s): F. Masci and J. N. Thomas Many papers document the observation of earthquake-related precursory signatures in geomagnetic field data. However, the significance of these findings is ambiguous because the authors did not adequately take into account that these signals could have been generated by other sources, and the seismogenic origin of these signals have not been validated by comparison with independent datasets. Thus, they are not reliable examples of magnetic disturbances induced by the seismic activity. Hayakawa et al. (2004) claim that at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm the Hurst exponent of the Ultra-Low-Frequency (ULF: 0.001–10 Hz) band of the geomagnetic field varied in accord with the energy released by the seismicity. The present paper demonstrates that the behaviour of the Hurst exponent was insufficiently investigated and also misinterpreted by the authors. We clearly show that during the Izu swarm the changes of the Hurst exponent were strongly related to the level of global geomagnetic activity and not to the increase of the local seismic activity.

Description: Forest fire danger rating in complex topography – results from a case study in the Bavarian Alps in autumn 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2157-2167, 2013 Author(s): C. Schunk, C. Wastl, M. Leuchner, C. Schuster, and A. Menzel Forest fire danger rating based on sparse meteorological stations is known to be potentially misleading when assigned to larger areas of complex topography. This case study examines several fire danger indices based on data from two meteorological stations at different elevations during a major drought period. This drought was caused by a persistent high pressure system, inducing a pronounced temperature inversion and its associated thermal belt with much warmer, dryer conditions in intermediate elevations. Thus, a massive drying of fuels, leading to higher fire danger levels, and multiple fire occurrences at mid-slope positions were contrasted by moderate fire danger especially in the valleys. The ability of fire danger indices to resolve this situation was studied based on a comparison with the actual fire danger as determined from expert observations, fire occurrences and fuel moisture measurements. The results revealed that, during temperature inversion, differences in daily cycles of meteorological parameters influence fire danger and that these are not resolved by standard meteorological stations and fire danger indices (calculated on a once-a-day basis). Additional stations in higher locations or high-resolution meteorological models combined with fire danger indices accepting at least hourly input data may allow reasonable fire danger calculations under these circumstances.

Description: Preface "Landslide hazard and risk assessment at different scales" Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2169-2171, 2013 Author(s): P. Reichenbach, A. Günther, and T. Glade

Description: Not all calcite ballast is created equal: differing effects of foraminiferan and coccolith calcite on the formation and sinking of aggregates Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 14861-14885, 2013 Author(s): K. Schmidt, C. L. De La Rocha, M. Gallinari, and G. Cortese Correlation between particulate organic carbon (POC) and calcium carbonate sinking through the deep ocean has led to the idea that ballast provided by calcium carbonate is important for the export of POC from the surface ocean. While this idea is certainly to some extent true, it is worth considering in more nuance, for example, examining the different effects on the aggregation and sinking of POC of small, non-sinking calcite particles like coccoliths and large, rapidly sinking calcite like planktonic foraminiferan tests. We have done that here in a simple experiment carried out in roller tanks that allow particles to sink continuously without being impeded by container walls. Coccoliths were efficiently incorporated into aggregates that formed during the experiment, increasing their sinking speed compared to similarly sized aggregates lacking added calcite ballast. The foraminiferan tests, which sank as fast as 700 m d −1 , became associated with only very minor amounts of POC. In addition, when they collided with other, larger, foraminferan-less aggregates, they fragmented them into two smaller, more slowly sinking aggregates. While these effects were certainly exaggerated within the confines of the roller tanks, they clearly demonstrate that calcium carbonate ballast is not just calcium carbonate ballast- different forms of calcium carbonate ballast have notably different effects on POC aggregation, sinking, and export.

Description: Phenology as a strategy for carbon optimality: a global model Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15107-15152, 2013 Author(s): S. Caldararu, D. W. Purves, and P. I. Palmer Phenology is essential to our understanding of biogeochemical cycles and the climate system. We develop a global mechanistic model of leaf phenology based on the hypothesis that phenology is a strategy for optimal carbon gain at the canopy level so that trees adjust leaf gains and losses in response to environmental factors such as light, temperature and soil moisture, to achieve maximum carbon assimilation. We fit this model to five years of satellite observations of leaf area index (LAI) using a Bayesian fitting algorithm. We show that our model is able to reproduce phenological patterns for all vegetation types and use it to explore variations in growing season length and the climate factors that limit leaf growth for different biomes. Phenology in wet tropical areas is limited by leaf age physiological constraints while at higher latitude leaf seasonality is limited by low temperature and light availability. Leaf growth in grassland regions is limited by water availability but often in combination with other factors. This model will advance the current understanding of phenology for ecosystem carbon models and our ability to predict future phenological behaviour.

Description: Linking ICT and society in early warning and adaptation to hydrological extremes in mountains Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2253-2270, 2013 Author(s): C. de Jong The assessment of the societal impact of hydrological extremes is particularly important in mountain regions, since mountains can be considered both as the generators and victims of extreme events. ICT can provide a powerful tool for transmitting hydro-meteorological information to predict, prepare and adapt to such events. However, in remote regions, such as mountains, the poles, deserts and islands, preventive and adaptive measures are often restricted by data availability and lack and/or incoherence of data networks. This paper distinguishes between early warning of floods and droughts, emphasising the latter in particular in mountains and explores the possibilities of enhancing the role of society in data collection, the identification, activation and application of stakeholder knowledge and transferral of data from gauged to ungauged catchments.

Description: Timing of sea ice retreat can alter phytoplankton community structure in the western Arctic Ocean Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15153-15180, 2013 Author(s): given_name prefix surname suffix, A. Fujiwara, T. Hirawake, K. Suzuki, I. Imai, and S.-I. Saitoh This study assesses the response of phytoplankton assemblages to recent climate change, especially with regard to the shrinking of sea ice in the northern Chukchi Sea of the western Arctic Ocean. Distribution patterns of phytoplankton groups in the late summers of 2008–2010 were analyzed based on HPLC pigment signatures and, the following four major algal groups were inferred via multiple regression and cluster analyses: prasinophytes, diatoms, haptophytes and dinoflagellates. A remarkable interannual difference in the distribution pattern of the groups was found in the northern basin area. Haptophytes dominated and dispersed widely in warm surface waters in 2008, whereas prasinophytes dominated in cold water in 2009 and 2010. A difference in the onset date of sea ice retreat was evident among years – the sea ice retreat in 2008 was 1–2 months earlier than in 2009 and 2010. The spatial distribution of early sea ice retreat matched the areas in which a shift in algal community composition was observed. Steel-Dwass's multiple comparison tests were used to assess the physical, chemical and biological parameters of the four clusters. We found a statistically significant difference in temperature between the haptophyte-dominated cluster and the other clusters, suggesting that the change in the phytoplankton communities was related to the earlier sea ice retreat in 2008 and the corollary increase in sea surface temperatures. Longer periods of open water during the summer, which are expected in the future, may affect food webs and biogeochemical cycles in the western Arctic due to shifts in phytoplankton community structure.

Description: The environmental impact of the Puyehue–Cordon Caulle 2011 volcanic eruption on Buenos Aires Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2319-2330, 2013 Author(s): G. B. Raga, D. Baumgardner, A. G. Ulke, M. Torres Brizuela, and B. Kucienska On 4 June 2011, the volcanic complex Puyehue–Cordon Caulle located in the Chilean Andes erupted, producing a plume of gases and particles that eventually circled the Southern Hemisphere, disrupting air travel and depositing ash in large quantities. On eight occasions, the plume passed over the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, leading local authorities to close the two international airports. The eruption occurred during an on-going field campaign when measurements of the properties of atmospheric aerosol particles were being made in Buenos Aires as part of a year-long study of the concentration and optical properties of aerosol at one site in the city. The suite of instruments deployed in Buenos Aires were not tailored to measurements of volcanic ash, but were designed to characterize urban conditions. Nevertheless, these measurements were analysed for periods when vertical profiles of aerosol backscatter, made with a ceilometer, clearly showed the presence of the volcano plume over the research site and resulted in airport closure. Aerosol optical thickness derived from AERONET, MODIS and a ceilometer at our research site, all show enhanced values clearly indicating that the three platforms identified the volcanic plume simultaneously. However, a quantitative comparison of the different estimates proves difficult, suggesting large spatial and temporal variability of the plume. Our results indicate that the number concentration of condensation nuclei (CN), the mass concentration of particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PPAH) and the light absorption coefficient exceeded the average background values by more than one standard deviation during the events of volcanic plume. The anomalous concentrations of CN suggest new particle formation, presumably from the conversion of SO 2 , while the anomalous concentrations of PPAH may come from the uptake of PAHs on the plume particles or from chemical reactions on the surface of plume particles. The anomalous absorption coefficients indicate that plume particles may contain certain compounds that can absorb radiation at 550 nm. Another possible explanation consistent with the observations is the scavenging of black carbon from urban sources as the plume descends through the boundary layer to the surface. In addition, the volcanic plume influenced the local meteorology resulting in a decrease of the temperature when compared to the average temperature during days with no plume present.

Description: Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2301-2318, 2013 Author(s): A. Beckers, B. Dewals, S. Erpicum, S. Dujardin, S. Detrembleur, J. Teller, M. Pirotton, and P. Archambeau Managing flood risk in Europe is a critical issue because climate change is expected to increase flood hazard in many european countries. Beside climate change, land use evolution is also a key factor influencing future flood risk. The core contribution of this paper is a new methodology to model residential land use evolution. Based on two climate scenarios ("dry" and "wet"), the method is applied to study the evolution of flood damage by 2100 along the river Meuse. Nine urbanization scenarios were developed: three of them assume a "current trend" land use evolution, leading to a significant urban sprawl, while six others assume a dense urban development, characterized by a higher density and a higher diversity of urban functions in the urbanized areas. Using damage curves, the damage estimation was performed by combining inundation maps for the present and future 100 yr flood with present and future land use maps and specific prices. According to the dry scenario, the flood discharge is expected not to increase. In this case, land use changes increase flood damages by 1–40%, to €334–462 million in 2100. In the wet scenario, the relative increase in flood damage is 540–630%, corresponding to total damages of €2.1–2.4 billion. In this extreme scenario, the influence of climate on the overall damage is 3–8 times higher than the effect of land use change. However, for seven municipalities along the river Meuse, these two factors have a comparable influence. Consequently, in the "wet" scenario and at the level of the whole Meuse valley in the Walloon region, careful spatial planning would reduce the increase in flood damage by no more than 11–23%; but, at the level of several municipalities, more sustainable spatial planning would reduce future flood damage to a much greater degree.

Description: Uptake of phytodetritus by benthic foraminifera under oxygen depletion at the Indian Margin (Arabian Sea) Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15305-15335, 2013 Author(s): A. J. Enge, U. Witte, M. Kucera, and P. Heinz Benthic foraminifera in sediments on the Indian margin of the Arabian Sea where the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) impinges on the continental slope are exposed to particularly severe levels of oxygen depletion. Food supply for the benthic community is high but delivered in distinct pulses during upwelling and water mixing events associated with summer and winter monsoon periods. In order to investigate the response by benthic foraminifera to such pulsed food delivery under oxygen concentrations of less than 0.1 mL L −1 (4.5 μmol L −1 ), an in situ isotope labeling experiment ( 13 C, 15 N) was performed at the western continental slope of India at 540 m water depth (OMZ core region). The assemblage of living foraminifera (〉125 μm) in the uppermost centimeter at this depth is characterized by an unexpectedly high population density of 3982 ind. 10 cm −2 and a strong dominance by few calcareous species. For the experiment, we concentrated on the nine most abundant taxa, which constitute 93% of the entire foraminifera population at 0–1 cm sediment depth. Increased concentrations of 13 C and 15 N in the cytoplasm indicate that all investigated taxa took up the labeled phytodetritus during the 4 day experimental phase. In total, these nine species had assimilated 113.8 mg C m −2 (17.5% of the total added carbon). The uptake of nitrogen by the three most abundant taxa ( Bolivina aff. B. dilatata , Cassidulina sp., Bulimina gibba ) was 2.7 mg N m −2 (2% of the total added nitrogen) and showed the successful application of 15 N as tracer in foraminiferal studies. The short-term response to the offered phytodetritus varied largely among foraminiferal species with Uvigerina schwageri being by far the most important species in short-term processing whereas the most abundant taxa Bolivina aff. B. dilatata and Cassidulina sp. showed comparably low uptake of the offered food. We suggest that the observed species-specific differences are related to individual biomass of species and to specific feeding preferences. The high numbers of living foraminifera and their rapid response to deposited fresh phytodetritus demonstrate the importance of foraminifera in short-term carbon cycling under oxygen-depleted conditions. We propose that foraminifera at the studied site benefit from unique adaptations in their metabolisms to nearly anoxic conditions as well as from the exclusion of macrofauna and the resulting relaxation of competition for food and low predation pressure.

Description: Summertime canopy albedo is sensitive to forest thinning Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15373-15414, 2013 Author(s): J. Otto, D. Berveiller, F.-M. Bréon, N. Delpierre, G. Geppert, A. Granier, W. Jans, A. Knohl, A. Kuusk, B. Longdoz, E. Moors, M. Mund, B. Pinty, M.-J. Schelhaas, and S. Luyssaert Despite an emerging body of literature linking canopy albedo to forest management, understanding of the process is still fragmented. We combined a stand-level forest gap model with a canopy radiation transfer model and satellite-derived model parameters to quantify the effects of forest thinning, that is removing trees at a certain time during the forest rotation, on summertime canopy albedo. The effects of different forest species (pine, beech, oak) and four thinning strategies (light to intense thinning regimes) were examined. During stand establishment, summertime canopy albedo is driven by tree species. In the later stages of stand development, the effect of tree species on summertime canopy albedo decreases in favour of an increasing influence of forest thinning on summertime canopy albedo. These trends continue until the end of the rotation where thinning explains up to 50% of the variance in near-infrared canopy albedo and up to 70% of the variance in visible canopy albedo. More intense thinning lowers the summertime shortwave albedo in the canopy by as much as 0.02 compared to unthinned forest. The structural changes associated with forest thinning can be described by the change in LAI in combination with crown volume. However, forests with identical canopy structure can have different summertime albedo values due to their location: the further north a forest is situated, the more the solar zenith angle increases and thus the higher is the summertime canopy albedo, independent of the wavelength. Despite the increase of absolute summertime canopy albedo values with latitude, the difference in canopy albedo between managed and unmanaged forest decreases with increasing latitude. Forest management thus strongly altered summertime forest albedo.

Description: Estimating soil suction from electrical resistivity Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2369-2379, 2013 Author(s): E. Piegari and R. Di Maio Soil suction and resistivity strongly depend on the degree of soil saturation and, therefore, both are used for estimating water content variations. The main difference between them is that soil suction is measured using tensiometers, which give point information, while resistivity is obtained by tomography surveys, which provide distributions of resistivity values in large volumes, although with less accuracy. In this paper, we have related soil suction to electrical resistivity with the aim of obtaining information about soil suction changes in large volumes, and not only for small areas around soil suction probes. We derived analytical relationships between soil matric suction and electrical resistivity by combining the empirical laws of van Genuchten and Archie. The obtained relationships were used to evaluate maps of soil suction values in different ashy layers originating in the explosive activity of the Mt Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy). Our findings provided a further example of the high potential of geophysical methods in contributing to more effective monitoring of soil stress conditions; this is of primary importance in areas where rainfall-induced landslides occur periodically.

Description: Oxygen minimum zone of the open Arabian Sea: variability of oxygen and nitrite from daily to decadal time scales Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15455-15517, 2013 Author(s): K. Banse, S. W. A. Naqvi, P. V. Narvekar, J. R. Postel, and D. A. Jayakumar The oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) of the Arabian Sea is the thickest of the three oceanic OMZs, which is of global biogeochemical significance because of denitrification in the upper part leading to N 2 and N 2 O production. The residence time of the OMZ water is believed to be less than a decade. The upper few hundred meters of this zone are nearly anoxic but non-sulfidic and still support animal (metazoan) pelagic life, possibly as a result of episodic injections of O 2 by physical processes. The very low O 2 values obtained with the new STOX sensor in the eastern tropical South Pacific probably also characterize the Arabian Sea OMZ, but there is no apparent reason as to why the temporal trends of the historic data should not hold. We report on discrete measurements of dissolved O 2 and NO 2 - , besides temperature and salinity, made between 1959 and 2004 well below the tops of the sharp pycno- and oxyclines near 150, 200, 300, 400, and 500 m depth. We assemble nearly all O 2 determinations (originally, 849 values, 695 in the OMZ) by the visual endpoint detection of the iodometric Winkler procedure, which in our data base yields about 0.04 mL L −1 (∼2 μM) O 2 above the endpoint from modern automated titration methods. We find 632 values acceptable (480 from 150 stations in the OMZ). The data are grouped in zonally-paired boxes of 1° lat. and 2° long. centered at 8°, 10°, 12°, 15°, 18°, 20°, and 21° N along 65° E and 67° E. The latitudes of 8–12° N, outside the OMZ, are only treated in passing. The principal results are as follows: (1) an O 2 climatology for the upper OMZ reveals a marked seasonality at 200 to 500 m depth with O 2 levels during the northeast monsoon and spring intermonsoon season elevated over those during the southwest monsoon season (median difference, 0.08 mL L −1 [3.5 μM]). The medians of the slopes of the seasonal regressions of O 2 on year for the NE and SW monsoon seasons are −0.0043 and −0.0019 mL L −1 a −1 , respectively (−0.19 and −0.08 μM a −1 ; n = 10 and 12, differing at p = 0.01); (2) four decades of statistically significant decreases of O 2 between 15° and 20° N but a trend to a similar increase near 21° N are observed. The balance of the mechanisms that more or less annually maintain the O 2 levels are still uncertain. At least between 300 and 500 m the annual reconstitution of the decrease is inferred to be due to lateral, isopycnal re-supply of O 2 , while at 200 (250?) m it is diapycnal, most likely by eddies. Similarly, recent models show large vertical advection of O 2 well below the pycno- cum -oxycline. The spatial (within drift stations) and temporal (daily) variability in hydrography and chemistry is large also below the principal pycnocline. The seasonal change of hydrography is considerable even at 500 m. There is no trend in the redox environment for a quarter of a century at a GEOSECS station near 20° N. In the entire OMZ the slopes on year within seasons for the quite variable NO 2 - (taken as an indicator of active denitrification) do not show a clear pattern. Also, future O 2 or nutrient budgets for the OMZ should not be based on single cruises or sections obtained during one season only. Steady state cannot be assumed any longer for the intermediate layers of the central Arabian Sea.

Description: Sulfur dioxide emissions from Papandayan and Bromo, two Indonesian volcanoes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2399-2407, 2013 Author(s): P. Bani, Surono, M. Hendrasto, H. Gunawan, and S. Primulyana Indonesia hosts 79 active volcanoes, representing 14% of all active volcanoes worldwide. However, little is known about their SO 2 contribution into the atmosphere, due to isolation and access difficulties. Existing SO 2 emission budgets for the Indonesian archipelago are based on extrapolations and inferences as there is a considerable lack of field assessments of degassing. Here, we present the first SO 2 flux measurements using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) for Papandayan and Bromo, two of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia. Results indicate mean SO 2 emission rates of 1.4 t d −1 from the fumarolic activity of Papandayan and more than 22–32 t d −1 of SO 2 released by Bromo during a declining eruptive phase. These DOAS results are very encouraging and pave the way for a better evaluation of Indonesian volcanic emissions.

Description: Interviewing insights regarding the fatalities inflicted by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2173-2187, 2013 Author(s): M. Ando, M. Ishida, Y. Hayashi, C. Mizuki, Y. Nishikawa, and Y. Tu One hundred fifty survivors of the 11 March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (Tohoku-oki earthquake) ( M w = 9.0) were interviewed to study the causes of deaths from the associated tsunami in coastal areas of Tohoku. The first official tsunami warning underestimated the height of the tsunami and 40% of the interviewees did not obtain this warning due to immediate blackouts and a lack of communication after the earthquake. Many chose to remain in dangerous locations based on the underestimated warning and their experiences with previous smaller tsunamis and/or due to misunderstanding the mitigating effects of nearby breakwaters in blocking incoming tsunamis. Some delayed their evacuation to perform family safety checks, and in many situations, the people affected misunderstood the risks involved in tsunamis. In this area, three large tsunamis have struck in the 115 yr preceding the 2011 tsunami. These tsunamis remained in the collective memory of communities, and numerous measures against future tsunami damage, such as breakwaters and tsunami evacuation drills, had been implemented. Despite these preparedness efforts, approximately 18 500 deaths and cases of missing persons occurred. The death rate with the age of 65 and above was particularly high, four times higher than that with other age groups. These interviews indicate that deaths resulted from a variety of reasons, but if residents had taken immediate action after the major ground motion stopped, most residents might have been saved. Education about the science behind earthquakes and tsunamis could help save more lives in the future.

Description: Stable isotopes dissect food webs from top to the bottom Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 14923-14952, 2013 Author(s): J. J. Middelburg Stable isotopes have been used extensively to study food web functioning, i.e. the flow of energy and matter among organisms. Traditional food-web studies are based on the natural variability of carbon and nitrogen isotopes and are limited to larger organisms that can be physically separated from their environment. Recent developments allow isotope ratio measurements of microbes and this in turn allows then measurement of entire food webs, i.e. from small producers at the bottom to large consumers at the top. Here, I provide a concise review on the use and potential of stable isotope to reconstruct end-to-end food webs. I will first discuss food web reconstruction based on natural abundances isotope data and will then show that the use of stable isotopes as deliberately added tracers provides complementary information. Finally, challenges and opportunities for end-to-end food web reconstructions in a changing world are discussed.

Description: Responses of carbon dioxide flux and plant biomass to drought in a treed peatland in northern Alberta: a climate change perspective Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 14999-15031, 2013 Author(s): T. M. Munir, B. Xu, M. Perkins, and M. Strack Northern peatland ecosystems represent large carbon stocks that are susceptible to changes such as accelerated mineralization due to water table lowering expected under a climate change scenario. During the growing seasons of 2011 and 2012 we monitored CO 2 fluxes and plant biomass along a microtopographic gradient (hummocks-hollows) in an undisturbed dry continental boreal treed bog (control) and a nearby site that was drained (drained) in 2001. Ten years of drainage in the bog significantly increased coverage of shrubs at hummocks and lichens at hollows. Considering measured hummock coverage and including tree incremental growth, we estimate that the control site was a larger sink in 2011 of −40 than that of −13 g C m −2 in 2012 while the drained site was a source of 144 and 140 g C m −2 over the same years. We infer that, drainage induced changes in vegetation growth led to increased biomass to counteract a portion of soil carbon losses. These results suggest that spatial variability (microtopography) and changes in vegetation community in boreal peatlands will affect how these ecosystems respond to lowered water table potentially induced by climate change.

Description: The coccolithophores Emiliania huxleyi and Coccolithus pelagicus : extant populations from the Norwegian-Iceland Sea and Fram Strait Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15077-15106, 2013 Author(s): C. V. Dylmer, J. Giraudeau, V. Hanquiez, and K. Husum Extant coccolithophores and their relation to the governing oceanographic features in the northern North Atlantic were investigated along two zonal transects of surface water sampling, both conducted during summer 2011 and fall 2007. The northern transects crossed Fram Strait and its two opposing boundary currents (West Spitsbergen Current and East Greenland Current), while the southern transects sampled the Norwegian and Iceland Seas (passing the island Jan Mayen) from the Lofoten Islands to the continental margin off Eastern Greenland. The distribution of the dominant coccolithophore species Emiliania huxleyi and Coccolithus pelagicus is discussed in view of both the surface hydrology at the time of sampling and the structure of the surface mixed layer. Remote-sensing images as well as CTD and ARGO profiles are used to constrain the physico-chemical state of the surface water at the time of sampling. Both transects were characterized by strong seasonal differences in bulk coccolithophore standing stocks with maximum values of 53 × 10 3 cells L −1 for the northern transect and 72 × 10 3 cells L −1 for the southern transect in fall and summer, respectively. The highest recorded bulk cell densities are essentially explained by E. huxleyi . This species shows a zonal shift in peak abundance in the Norwegian-Iceland Seas from a summer maximum in the Lofoten gyre to peak cell densities around the island Jan Mayen in fall. Vertical mixing of Atlantic waters west of Lofoten Island, a phenomenom related to pervasive summer large scale atmospheric changes in the eastern Nordic Seas, on one hand, and strengthened influence of melt-water and related surface water stratification around the island Jan Mayen during fall, on the other hand, explains the observed seasonal migration of the E. huxleyi peak production area, as well as the seasonal change in dominating species within the Iceland Sea. In addition our datasets are indicative of a well-defined maximum boundary temperature of 6 °C for the production of C. pelagicus in the northern North Atlantic. The Fram Strait transects provides, to our knowledge, a first view of the zonal distribution of extant coccolithophores in this remote setting during summer and fall. Our datasets are indicative of a seasonal change in the species community from an E. huxleyi -dominated assemblage during summer to a C. pelagicus -rich population during fall. Here, higher irradiance and increased Atlantic water influence during summer favored the production of the opportunistic species E. huxleyi close to the Arctic Front, whereas the peak production area during fall, with high concentrations of C. pelagicus , lays in true Arctic/Polar waters.

Description: Anthropogenic and natural methane fluxes in Switzerland synthesized within a spatially-explicit inventory Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15181-15224, 2013 Author(s): R. V. Hiller, D. Bretscher, T. DelSontro, T. Diem, W. Eugster, R. Henneberger, S. Hobi, E. Hodson, D. Imer, M. Kreuzer, T. Künzle, L. Merbold, P. A. Niklaus, B. Rihm, A. Schellenberger, M. H. Schroth, C. J. Schubert, H. Siegrist, J. Stieger, N. Buchmann, and D. Brunner We present the first high-resolution (500 m × 500 m) gridded methane (CH 4 ) emission inventory for Switzerland, which integrates the national emission totals reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and recent CH 4 flux studies conducted by research groups across Switzerland. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, we also include natural and semi-natural CH 4 fluxes, i.e., emissions from lakes and reservoirs, wetlands, wild animals as well as uptake by forest soils. National CH 4 emissions were disaggregated using detailed geostatistical information on source locations and their spatial extent and process- or area-specific emission factors. In Switzerland, the highest CH 4 emissions in 2011 originated from the agricultural sector (150 Gg CH 4 yr −1 ), mainly produced by ruminants and manure management, followed by emissions from waste management (15 Gg CH 4 yr −1 ) mainly from landfills and the energy sector (12 Gg CH 4 yr −1 ), which was dominated by emissions from natural gas distribution. Compared to the anthropogenic sources, emissions from natural and semi-natural sources were relatively small (6 Gg CH 4 yr −1 ), making up only 3 % of the total emissions in Switzerland. CH 4 fluxes from agricultural soils were estimated to be not significantly different from zero (between −1.5 and 0 Gg CH 4 yr −1 ), while forest soils are a CH 4 sink (approx. −2.8 Gg CH 4 yr −1 ), partially offsetting other natural emissions. Estimates of uncertainties are provided for the different sources, including an estimate of spatial disaggregation errors deduced from a comparison with a global (EDGAR v4.2) and a European CH 4 inventory (TNO/MACC). This new spatially-explicit emission inventory for Switzerland will provide valuable input for regional scale atmospheric modeling and inverse source estimation.

Description: Seasonal trends of dry and bulk concentration of nitrogen compounds over a rain forest in Ghana Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15225-15255, 2013 Author(s): F. Fattore, T. Bertolini, S. Materia, S. Gualdi, A. Thongo M'Bou, G. Nicolini, R. Valentini, A. De Grandcourt, D. Tedesco, and S. Castaldi African tropical forests of the equatorial belt might receive significant input of extra nitrogen derived from biomass burning occurring in the north savanna belt and transported equator wards by NE winds. In order to test this hypothesis an experiment was set up in a tropical rain forest in the National park of Ankasa (Ghana) aiming at: quantifying magnitude and seasonal variability of concentrations of N compounds, present as gas and aerosol (dry nitrogen) or in the rainfall (bulk nitrogen), over the studied forest; relating their seasonal variability to trends of local and regional winds and rainfall and to variations of fire events in the region. Three Delta systems, implemented for monthly measurements of NO 2 , were mounted over a tower at 45 m height, 20 m above forest canopy to sample gas (NH 3 , NO 2 , HNO 3 , HCl, SO 2 ) and aerosol (NH 4 + , NO 3 − , and several ions), together with three tanks for bulk rainfall collection (to analyze NH 4 + , NO 3 − and ion concentration). The tower was provided with a sonic anemometer to estimate local wind data. The experiment started in October 2011 and data up to October 2012 are presented. To interpret the observed seasonal trends of measured compounds, local and regional meteo data and regional satellite fire data were analyzed. The concentration of N compounds significantly increased from December to April, during the drier period, peaking in December-February when North Eastern winds (Harmattan) were moving dry air masses over the West central African region and the inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) was at its minimum latitude over the equator. This period also coincided with peaks of fire in the whole region. On the contrary, N concentration in gas, aerosol and rain decreased from May to October when prevalent winds arrived from the sea (South-East), during the Monsoon period. Both ionic compositions of rain and analysis of local wind direction showed a significant and continuous presence of see-breeze at site. The ionic composition of rain water resulted much closer to see water and poorer in N compounds from May to October.

Description: Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great ( M w = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2279-2299, 2013 Author(s): T. R. Robinson and T. R. H. Davies The Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island has not sustained a large magnitude earthquake since ca. AD 1717. The time since this rupture is close to the average inferred recurrence interval of the fault (~300 yr). The Alpine Fault is therefore expected to generate a large magnitude earthquake in the near future. Previous ruptures of this fault are inferred to have generated M w = 8.0 or greater earthquakes and to have resulted in, amongst other geomorphic hazards, large-scale landslides and landslide dams throughout the Southern Alps. There is currently 85% probability that the Alpine Fault will cause a M w = 8.0+ earthquake within the next 100 yr. While the seismic hazard is fairly well understood, that of the consequential geomorphic activity is less well studied, and these consequences are explored herein. They are expected to include landsliding, landslide damming, dam-break flooding, debris flows, river aggradation, liquefaction, and landslide-generated lake/fiord tsunami. Using evidence from previous events within New Zealand as well as analogous international examples, we develop first-order estimates of the likely magnitude and possible locations of the geomorphic effects associated with earthquakes. Landsliding is expected to affect an area 〉 30 000 km 2 and involve 〉 1billion m 3 of material. Some tens of landslide dams are expected to occur in narrow, steep-sided gorges in the affected region. Debris flows will be generated in the first long-duration rainfall after the earthquake and will continue to occur for several years as rainfall (re)mobilises landslide material. In total more than 1000 debris flows are likely to be generated at some time after the earthquake. Aggradation of up to 3 m will cover an area 〉 125 km 2 and is likely to occur on many West Coast alluvial fans and floodplains. The impact of these effects will be felt across the entire South Island and is likely to continue for several decades.

Description: Inferences from CO 2 and CH 4 concentration profiles at the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) on local summer-time ecosystem fluxes Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15337-15372, 2013 Author(s): J. Winderlich, C. Gerbig, O. Kolle, and M. Heimann The Siberian region is still sparsely covered by ecosystem observatories, which motivates to exploit existing datasets to gain spatially and temporally better-resolved carbon fluxes. The Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO, 60°48' N, 89°21' E) observations of CO 2 and CH 4 mole fractions as well as meteorological parameters from six different heights up to 301 m allow for an additional estimate of surface-atmosphere fluxes of CO 2 and CH 4 for the Middle-Siberian region since 2009. The total carbon flux is calculated from the storage and the turbulent flux component. The gradients between the different tower levels determine the storage flux component, which dominates the local fluxes, especially during night. As a correction term, the turbulent flux component was estimated by the modified Bowen ratio method based on the sensible heat flux measurements at the top of the tower. The gained average night time fluxes (23:00 to 04:00 local time) are 2.7 ± 1.1 μmol (m 2 s) −1 for CO 2 and 5.6 ± 4.5 nmol (m 2 s) −1 for CH 4 during the summer months June-September in 2009 and 2011. During day, the method is limited due to numeric instabilities from vanishing vertical gradients; however, the derived CO 2 fluxes exhibit reasonable diurnal shape and magnitude compared to the eddy covariance technique, which become available at the site in 2012. Therefore, the tall tower data facilitates the extension of the new eddy covariance flux dataset back in time. The diurnal signal of the CH 4 flux is predominantly characterized by a strong morning transition, which is explained by local topographic effects.

Description: Live foraminiferal faunas (Rose Bengal stained) from the northern Arabian Sea: links with bottom-water oxygenation Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15257-15304, 2013 Author(s): C. Caulle, K. A. Koho, M. Mojtahid, G. J. Reichart, and F. J. Jorissen Live (Rose Bengal stained) benthic foraminifera from the Murray Ridge, within and below the northern Arabian Sea Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ), were studied in order to determine the relationship between faunal composition, bottom-water oxygenation (BWO), pore-water chemistry and organic matter (organic carbon and phytopigment) distribution. A series of multicores were recovered from a ten-station oxygen (BWO: 2–78 μM) and bathymetric (885–3010 m depth) transect during the winter monsoon in January 2009. Foraminifera were investigated from three different size fractions (63–125 μm, 125–150 μm and 〉 150 μm). The larger foraminifera (〉 125 μm) were strongly dominated by agglutinated species (e.g. Reophax spp.). In contrast, in the 63–125 μm fraction, calcareous taxa were more abundant, especially in the core of the OMZ, suggesting an opportunistic behaviour. On the basis of a Principal Component Analysis, three foraminiferal groups were identified, reflecting the environmental parameters along the study transect. The faunas from the shallowest stations, in the core of the OMZ (BWO: 2 μM), were composed of "low oxygen" species, typical of the Arabian Sea OMZ (e.g., Rotaliatinopsis semiinvoluta , Praeglobobulimina spp. , Bulimina exilis, Uvigerina peregrina type parva ). These taxa are adapted to the very low BWO conditions and to high phytodetritus supplies. The transitional group, typical for the lower part of the OMZ (BWO: 5–16 μM), is composed of more cosmopolitan taxa tolerant to low-oxygen concentrations ( Globocassidulina subglobosa , Ehrenbergina trigona ). Below the OMZ (BWO: 26–78 μM), where food availability is more limited and becomes increasingly restricted to surficial sediments, more cosmopolitan calcareous taxa were present, such as Bulimina aculeata, Melonis barleeanus, Uvigerina peregrina and Epistominella exigua . Miliolids were uniquely observed in this last group, reflecting the higher BWO. At these deeper sites, the faunas exhibit a clear depth succession of superficial, intermediate and deep-infaunal microhabitats, because of the deeper oxygen and nitrate penetration into the sediment.

Description: Integrating spatial, temporal, and size probabilities for the annual landslide hazard maps in the Shihmen watershed, Taiwan Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2353-2367, 2013 Author(s): C. Y. Wu and S. C. Chen Landslide spatial, temporal, and size probabilities were used to perform a landslide hazard assessment in this study. Eleven intrinsic geomorphological, and two extrinsic rainfall factors were evaluated as landslide susceptibility related factors as they related to the success rate curves, landslide ratio plots, frequency distributions of landslide and non-landslide groups, as well as probability–probability plots. Data on landslides caused by Typhoon Aere in the Shihmen watershed were selected to train the susceptibility model. The landslide area probability, based on the power law relationship between the landslide area and a noncumulative number, was analyzed using the Pearson type 5 probability density function. The exceedance probabilities of rainfall with various recurrence intervals, including 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 yr, were used to determine the temporal probabilities of the events. The study was conducted in the Shihmen watershed, which has an area of 760 km 2 and is one of the main water sources for northern Taiwan. The validation result of Typhoon Krosa demonstrated that this landslide hazard model could be used to predict the landslide probabilities. The results suggested that integration of spatial, area, and exceedance probabilities to estimate the annual probability of each slope unit is feasible. The advantage of this annual landslide probability model lies in its ability to estimate the annual landslide risk, instead of a scenario-based risk.

Description: Landscape-scale changes in forest structure and functional traits along an Andes-to-Amazon elevation gradient Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15415-15454, 2013 Author(s): G. P. Asner, C. Anderson, R. E. Martin, D. E. Knapp, R. Tupayachi, T. Kennedy-Bowdoin, F. Sinca, and Y. Malhi Elevation gradients provide opportunities to explore environmental controls on forest structure and functioning, but plot-based studies have proven highly variable due to limited geographic scope. We used airborne imaging spectroscopy and LiDAR (light detection and ranging) to quantify changes in three-dimensional forest structure and canopy functional traits in a series of 25 ha landscapes distributed along a 3300 m elevation gradient from lowland Amazonia to treeline in the Peruvian Andes. Canopy greenness, photosynthetic fractional cover and exposed non-photosynthetic vegetation varied as much across lowland forests (100–200 m) as they did from the lowlands to the Andean treeline (3400 m). Elevation was positively correlated with canopy gap density and understory vegetation cover, and negatively related to canopy height and vertical profile. Increases in gap density were tightly linked to increases in understory plant cover, and larger gaps (20–200 m 2 produced 25–30 times the response in understory cover than did smaller gaps ( 〈 5 m 2 . Scaling of gap size to gap frequency was, however, relatively constant along the elevation gradient, which when combined with other canopy structural information, indicates equilibrium turnover patterns from the lowlands to treeline. Our results provide a first landscape-scale quantification of forest structure and canopy functional traits with changing elevation, thereby improving our understanding of disturbance, demography and ecosystem processes in the Andes-to-Amazon corridor.

Description: On the puzzling feature of the silence of precursory electromagnetic emissions Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2381-2397, 2013 Author(s): K. Eftaxias, S. M. Potirakis, and T. Chelidze It has been suggested that fracture-induced MHz–kHz electromagnetic emissions (EME), which emerge from a few days up to a few hours before the main seismic shock occurrence permit a real-time monitoring of the damage process during the last stages of earthquake preparation, as it happens at the laboratory scale. Despite fairly abundant evidence, electromagnetic (EM) precursors have not been adequately accepted as credible physical phenomena. These negative views are enhanced by the fact that certain "puzzling features" are repetitively observed in candidate fracture-induced pre-seismic EME. More precisely, EM silence in all frequency bands appears before the main seismic shock occurrence, as well as during the aftershock period. Actually, the view that "acceptance of "precursive" EM signals without convincing co-seismic signals should not be expected" seems to be reasonable. In this work we focus on this point. We examine whether the aforementioned features of EM silence are really puzzling ones or, instead, reflect well-documented characteristic features of the fracture process, in terms of universal structural patterns of the fracture process, recent laboratory experiments, numerical and theoretical studies of fracture dynamics, critical phenomena, percolation theory, and micromechanics of granular materials. Our analysis shows that these features should not be considered puzzling.

Description: Springtime phytoplankton dynamics in the Arctic Krossfjorden and Kongsfjorden (Spitsbergen) as a function of glacier proximity Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15519-15557, 2013 Author(s): A. M.-T. Piquet, W. H. van de Poll, R. J. W. Visser, C. Wiencke, H. Bolhuis, and A. G. J. Buma The hydrographic properties of the Kongsfjorden – Krossfjorden system (79° N, Spitsbergen) are affected by Atlantic water incursions as well as glacier meltwater runoff. This results in strong physical gradients (temperature, salinity and irradiance) within the fjords. Here, we tested the hypothesis that glaciers affect phytoplankton dynamics as early as the productive spring bloom period. During two campaigns in 2007 (late spring) and 2008 (early spring) we studied hydrographic characteristics and phytoplankton variability along 2 transects in both fjords, using HPLC-CHEMTAX pigment fingerprinting, molecular fingerprinting (DGGE) and sequencing of 18S rRNA genes. The sheltered inner fjord locations remained colder during spring as opposed to the outer locations. Vertical light attenuation coefficients increased from early spring onwards, at all locations, but in particular at the inner locations. During the end of spring, meltwater input had stratified surface waters throughout the fjords. The inner fjord locations were characterized by overall lower phytoplankton biomass. Furthermore HPLC-CHEMTAX data revealed that diatoms and Phaeocystis sp. were replaced by small nano- and picophytoplankton during late spring, coinciding with low nutrient availability. The innermost stations showed higher relative abundances of nano- and picophytoplankton throughout, notably of cyanophytes and cryptophytes. Molecular fingerprinting revealed a high similarity between inner fjord samples from early spring and late spring samples from all locations, while outer samples from early spring clustered separately. We conclude that glacier influence, mediated by early meltwater input, modifies phytoplankton biomass and composition already during the spring bloom period, in favor of low biomass and small cell size communities. This may affect higher trophic levels especially when regional warming further increases the period and volume of meltwater.

Description: Simulating microbial degradation of organic matter in a simple porous system using the 3-D diffusion based model MOSAIC Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15613-15640, 2013 Author(s): O. Monga, P. Garnier, V. Pot, E. Coucheney, N. Nunan, W. Otten, and C. Chenu This paper deals with the simulation of microbial degradation in soil within pore space at microscopic scale. Pore space was described using sphere network coming from a geometrical modeling algorithm. The biological model was improved regarding previous work in order to include transformation of dissolved organic compounds and diffusion processes. Our model was tested using experimental results of a simple substrate decomposition (Fructose) within a simple media (the sand). Diverse microbial communities were inoculated. Separated incubations in microcosms were carried out using 5 different bacterial communities at 2 different water potentials of −10 cm and −100 cm of water. We calibrated the biological parameters by means of experimental data obtained at high water content and we tested the model without any parameters change at low water content. Same as for experimental data, our simulation results showed the decrease in water content involved the decrease of mineralisation. The model was able to simulate the decrease of connectivity between substrate and microorganism due the decrease of water content.

Description: Influence of temperature and CO 2 on the strontium and magnesium composition of coccolithophore calcite Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15559-15586, 2013 Author(s): M. N. Müller, M. Lebrato, U. Riebesell, J. Barcelos e Ramos, K. G. Schulz, S. Blanco-Ameijeiras, S. Sett, A. Eisenhauer, and H. M. Stoll Marine calcareous sediments provide a fundamental basis for paleoceanographic studies aiming to reconstruct past oceanic conditions and understand key biogeochemical element cycles. Calcifying unicellular phytoplankton (coccolithophores) are a major contributor to both carbon and calcium cycling by photosynthesis and the production of calcite (coccoliths) in the euphotic zone and the subsequent long-term deposition and burial into marine sediments. Here we present data from controlled laboratory experiments on four coccolithophore species and elucidate the relation between the divalent cation (Sr, Mg and Ca) partitioning in coccoliths and cellular physiology (growth, calcification and photosynthesis). Coccolithophores were cultured under different seawater temperature and carbonate chemistry conditions. The partition coefficient of strontium ( D Sr ) was positively correlated with both carbon dioxide ( p CO 2 ) and temperature but displayed no coherent relation to particulate organic and inorganic carbon production rates. Furthermore, D Sr correlated positively with cellular growth rates when driven by temperature but no correlation was present when changes in growth rates were p CO 2 -induced. The results demonstrate the complex interaction between environmental forcing and physiological control on the strontium partitioning in coccolithophore calcite. The partition coefficient of magnesium ( D Mg ) displayed species-specific differences and elevated values under nutrient limitation. No conclusive correlation between coccolith D Mg and temperature was observed but p CO 2 induced a rising trend in coccolith D Mg . Interestingly, the best correlation was found between coccolith D Mg and chlorophyll a production suggesting that chlorophyll a and calcite associated Mg originate from the same intracellular pool. These results give an extended insight into the driving factors that lead to variations in the coccolith Mg / Ca ratio and can be used for Sr / Ca and Mg / Ca paleoproxy calibration.

Description: Forest NEP is significantly driven by previous year's weather Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15587-15611, 2013 Author(s): S. Zielis, S. Etzold, R. Zweifel, W. Eugster, M. Haeni, and N. Buchmann Understanding the response of forest net ecosystem productivity (NEP) to environmental drivers under climate change is highly relevant for predictions of annual forest carbon (C) flux budgets. Modeling annual forest NEP with soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer models (SVATs), however, remains challenging due to unknown responses of forests to weather of the previous year. In this study, we addressed the influence of previous year's weather on the inter-annual variability of NEP for a subalpine spruce forest in Switzerland. Analysis of long-term (1997–2011) eddy covariance measurements showed that the Norway spruce forest Davos Seehornwald was a consistent sink for atmospheric CO 2 , sequestering 210 ± 88 g C m −2 per year on average. Previous year's weather strongly affected inter-annual variability of NEP, increasing the explained variance in linear models to 53% compared to 20% without previous year's weather. Thus, our results highlight the need to consider previous year's weather in modeling annual C budgets of forests. Furthermore, soil temperature in the current year's spring played a major role controlling annual NEP, mainly by influencing gross primary productivity early in the year, with spring NEP accounting for 56% of annual NEP. Consequently, we expect an increase in net CO 2 uptake with future climate warming, as long as no other resources become limiting.

Description: Synoptic evaluation of carbon cycling in Beaufort Sea during summer: contrasting river inputs, ecosystem metabolism and air–sea CO 2 fluxes Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15641-15710, 2013 Author(s): A. Forest, P. Coupel, B. Else, S. Nahavandian, B. Lansard, P. Raimbault, T. Papakyriakou, Y. Gratton, L. Fortier, J.-É. Tremblay, and M. Babin The accelerated decline in Arctic sea ice combined with an ongoing trend toward a more dynamic atmosphere is modifying carbon cycling in the Arctic Ocean. A critical issue is to understand how net community production (NCP; the balance between gross primary production and community respiration) responds to changes and modulates air–sea CO 2 fluxes. Using data collected as part of the ArcticNet-Malina 2009 expedition in southeastern Beaufort Sea (Arctic Ocean), we synthesize information on sea ice, wind, river, water column properties, metabolism of the planktonic food web, organic carbon fluxes and pools, as well as air–sea CO 2 exchange, with the aim of identifying indices of ecosystem response to environmental changes. Data were analyzed to develop a non-steady-state carbon budget and an assessment of NCP against air–sea CO 2 fluxes. The mean atmospheric forcing was a mild upwelling-favorable wind (~5 km h −1 ) blowing from the N-E and a decaying ice cover ( 600 mg C m −2 d −1 ) over the shelf prior to our survey, (2) freshwater dilution by river runoff and ice melt, and (3) the presence of cold surface waters offshore. Only the Mackenzie River delta and localized shelf areas directly affected by upwelling were identified as substantial sources of CO 2 to the atmosphere (〉10mmol C m −2 d −1 ). Although generally

Description: Early warning of snow-caused disasters in pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1411-1425, 2013 Author(s): W. Wang, T. Liang, X. Huang, Q. Feng, H. Xie, X. Liu, M. Chen, and X. Wang This study develops a model for early warning of snow-caused livestock disasters on a county basis and proposes a method of qualitative risk assessment of snow disasters at 500 m resolution for pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Data used for the model development include remote sensing data, statistical data of weather, livestock, and social economy, and 45 typical snow disaster cases from 2000 to 2010. The principal component analysis (PCA) approach is used to choose 7 crucial factors that contribute over 85% of information for early warning snow disasters on the TP. They are mean annual probability of snow disaster, number of snow-covered days, livestock stocking rate, continual days of mean daily temperature below −10 °C, grassland burial index, rate of snow-covered grassland, and per livestock gross domestic product. The chosen 411 cases from 2008 to 2010 are used to validate the prediction results from the developed early warning model, with an overall accuracy of 85.64% in predicting snow disasters and no disasters. This suggests that the early warning approach developed in the study has operational potential for predicting snow disasters on the TP.

Description: How much does participatory flood management contribute to stakeholders' social capacity building? Empirical findings based on a triangulation of three evaluation approaches Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1427-1444, 2013 Author(s): M. Buchecker, S. Menzel, and R. Home Recent literature suggests that dialogic forms of risk communication are more effective to build stakeholders' hazard-related social capacities. In spite of the high theoretical expectations, there is a lack of univocal empirical evidence on the relevance of these effects. This is mainly due to the methodological limitations of the existing evaluation approaches. In our paper we aim at eliciting the contribution of participatory river revitalisation projects on stakeholders' social capacity building by triangulating the findings of three evaluation studies that were based on different approaches: a field-experimental, a qualitative long-term ex-post and a cross-sectional household survey approach. The results revealed that social learning and avoiding the loss of trust were more relevant benefits of participatory flood management than acceptance building. The results suggest that stakeholder involvements should be more explicitly designed as tools for long-term social learning.

Description: Foraminiferal survival after long term experimentally induced anoxia Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 9243-9284, 2013 Author(s): D. Langlet, E. Geslin, C. Baal, E. Metzger, F. Lejzerowicz, B. Riedel, M. Zuschin, J. Pawlowski, M. Stachowitsch, and F. J. Jorissen Anoxia has been successfully induced in four benthic chambers installed on the Northern Adriatic seafloor from 1 week to 10 months. To accurately determine whether benthic foraminifera can survive experimentally induced prolonged anoxia, the CellTrackerGreen method has been applied. Numerous individuals have been found living at all sampling times and at all sampling depths, showing that benthic foraminifera can survive up to 10 months of anoxia with co-occurring hydrogen sulphides. However, foraminiferal standing stocks decrease with sampling time in an irregular way. A large difference in standing stock between two cores samples in initial conditions indicates the presence of a large spatial heterogeneity of the foraminiferal faunas. An unexpected increase in standing stocks after 1 month is tentatively interpreted as a reaction to increased food availability due to the massive mortality of infaunal macrofaunal organisms. After this, standing stocks decrease again in a core sampled after 2 months of anoxia, to attain a minimum in the cores sampled after 10 months. We speculate that the trend of overall decrease of standing stocks is not due to the adverse effects of anoxia and hydrogen sulphides, but rather due to a continuous diminution of labile organic matter.

Description: Environmental controls on the Emiliania huxleyi calcite mass Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 9285-9313, 2013 Author(s): M. T. Horigome, P. Ziveri, M. Grelaud, K.-H. Baumann, G. Marino, and P. G. Mortyn Although ocean acidification is expected to impact (bio)calcification by decreasing the seawater carbonate ion concentration, [CO 3 2− ], there exists evidence of non-uniform response of marine calcifying plankton to low seawater [CO 3 2− ]. This raises questions on the role of environmental factors other than acidification and on the complex physiological responses behind calcification. Here we investigate the synergistic effect of multiple environmental parameters, including temperature, nutrient (nitrate and phosphate) availability, and seawater carbonate chemistry on the coccolith calcite mass of the cosmopolitan coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi , the most abundant species in the world ocean. We use a suite of surface (late Holocene) sediment samples from the South Atlantic and southwestern Indian Ocean taken from depths lying well above the modern lysocline. The coccolith calcite mass in our results presents a latitudinal distribution pattern that mimics the main oceanographic features, thereby pointing to the potential importance of phosphorus and temperature in determining coccolith mass by affecting primary calcification and possibly driving the E. huxleyi morphotype distribution. This evidence does not necessarily argue against the potentially important role of the rapidly changing seawater carbonate chemistry in the future, when unabated fossil fuel burning will likely perturb ocean chemistry beyond a critical point. Rather our study highlights the importance of evaluating the combined effect of several environmental stressors on calcifying organisms to project their physiological response(s) in a high CO 2 world and improve interpretation of paleorecords.

Description: Stakeholders' issues for action during the warning process and the interpretation of forecasts' uncertainties Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1469-1479, 2013 Author(s): L. Créton-Cazanave and C. Lutoff This article considers the socio-geographical approach carried out as part of the MedUp program. It presents a study of the ways that the French "actors" manage forecast uncertainties during a flash flood warning process. In order to better understand the role of forecasts' uncertainties in decision making, we focused on the actions people took and how what they say explains their actions. The practices of actors involved in warnings for the Vidourle watershed (Gard, France), in particular, are analyzed using a practice-based approach. A set of categories of the "actors" was developed based on their descriptions of the problems they faced during the flash flood warning, independent of their socio-professional status and position in the warning chain. Five actor profiles result from this: Translators, Managers, Committed, Navigators and Vulnerable. For each profile, specific action contexts are defined, determining how each deals with uncertainty.

Description: Augmenting Austrian flood management practices through geospatial predictive analytics: a study in Carinthia Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1445-1455, 2013 Author(s): S. M. Ward and G. Paulus The Danube River basin has long been the location of significant flooding problems across central Europe. The last decade has seen a sharp increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of these flood events, unveiling a dire need for enhanced flood management policy and tools in the region. Located in the southern portion of Austria, the state of Carinthia has experienced a significant volume of intense flood impacts over the last decade. Although the Austrian government has acknowledged these issues, their remedial actions have been primarily structural to date. Continued focus on controlling the natural environment through infrastructure while disregarding the need to consider alternative forms of assessing flood exposure will only act as a provisional solution to this inescapable risk. In an attempt to remedy this flaw, this paper highlights the application of geospatial predictive analytics and spatial recovery index as a proxy for community resilience, as well as the cultural challenges associated with the application of foreign models within an Austrian environment.

Description: UV-induced carbon monoxide emission from living vegetation Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 9373-9388, 2013 Author(s): D. Bruhn, K. R. Albert, T. N. Mikkelsen, and P. Ambus The global burden of carbon monoxide (CO) is rather uncertain. In this paper we address the potential for UV-induced CO emission by living terrestrial vegetation surfaces. Real-time measurements of CO concentrations were made with a cavity enhanced laser spectrometer connected in closed loop to either an ecosystem chamber or a plant-leaf scale chamber. Leaves of all examined plant species exhibited emission of CO in response to artificial UV-radiation as well as the UV-component of natural solar radiation. The UV-induced rate of CO emission exhibited a rather low dependence on temperature, indicating an abiotic process. The emission of CO in response to the UV-component of natural solar radiation was also evident at the ecosystem scale.

Description: Nutrient dynamics in tropical rivers, estuarine-lagoons, and coastal ecosystems along the eastern Hainan Island Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 9091-9147, 2013 Author(s): R. H. Li, S. M. Liu, Y. W. Li, G. L. Zhang, J. L. Ren, and J. Zhang Nutrient dynamics were studied along the eastern Hainan Island based on field observations during 2006–2009, to understand nutrient biogeochemical processes and to have an overview of human perturbations on coastal ecosystems in this tropical region. The concentrations of nutrients in the rivers had seasonal variations enriched with dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN). High riverine concentrations of nitrate were mainly originated from agricultural fertilizer input. The ratios of DIN : PO 4 3− ranged from 37 to 1063, suggesting preferential PO 4 3− relative to nitrogen in the rivers. The areal yields of dissolved silicate (DSi) varied from 76 to 448 × 10 3 mol km −2 yr −1 due to erosion over the drainage area, inducing high levels of DSi among worldwide tropical systems. Aquaculture ponds contained high concentrations of NH 4 + (up to 157 μM) and DON (up to 130 μM). Particulate phosphorus concentrations (0.5 ∼1.4 μM) were in lower level comparied with estuaries around the world. Particulate silicate levels in rivers and lagoons were lower than global average level. Nutrient biogeochemistry in coastal areas were affected by human activities (e.g. aquaculture, agriculture), as well as natural events such as typhoon. Nutrient concentrations were low because open sea water dispersed land-derived nutrients. Nutrient budgets were built based on a steady-state box model, which showed that riverine fluxes would be magnified by estuarine processes (e.g. regeneration, desorption) in the Wenchanghe/Wenjiaohe Estuary, Wanquan River estuary, and the Laoyehai Lagoon except in the Xiaohai Lagoon. Riverine and groundwater input were the major sources of nutrients to the Xiaohai Lagoon and the Laiyehai Lagoon, respectively. Riverine input and aquaculture effluent were the major sources of nutrients to the eastern coastal of Hainan Island. Nutrient inputs to the coastal ecosystem can be increased by typhoon-induced runoff of rainwater, and phytoplankton bloom in the sea would be caused.

Description: Southern Hemisphere imprint for Indo–Asian summer monsoons during the last glacial period as revealed by Arabian Sea productivity records Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 9315-9343, 2013 Author(s): T. Caley, S. Zaragosi, J. Bourget, P. Martinez, B. Malaizé, F. Eynaud, L. Rossignol, T. Garlan, and N. Ellouz-Zimmermann The monsoon is one of the most important climatic phenomena: it promotes inter-hemispheric exchange of energy and affects the economical prosperity of several countries exposed to its seasonal seesaw. Previous studies in both the Indian and Asian monsoon systems have suggested a dominant north hemispheric (NH) control on summer monsoon dynamics at the scale of suborbital-millennial climatic changes, while the forcing/response of Indian and Asian monsoons at the orbital scale remains a matter of debate. Here nine marine sediment cores distributed across the whole Arabian Sea are used to build a regional surface marine productivity signal. The productivity signal is driven by the intensity of Indian summer monsoon winds. Results demonstrate the existence of an imprint of suborbital Southern Hemisphere (SH) temperature changes (i.e., Antarctica) on the Indian summer monsoon during the last glacial period, challenging the traditional and exclusive NH forcing hypothesis. Meanwhile, during the last deglaciation, the NH plays a more significant role. The δ 18 O signal recorded in the Asian monsoon speleothem records could be exported by winds from the Indian summer monsoon region, as recently proposed in modelling exercise, explaining the SH signature observed in Asian cave speleothems. Contrary to the view of a passive response of Indian and Asian monsoons to NH anomalies, the present results strongly suggest that the Indo–Asian summer monsoon plays an active role in amplifying millennial inter-hemispheric asymmetric patterns. Additionally, this study helps to decipher the observed differences between Indian and Asian-speleothem monsoonal records at the orbital-precession scale.

Description: Heterogeneity of impacts of high CO 2 on the North Western European Shelf Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 9389-9413, 2013 Author(s): Y. Artioli, J. C. Blackford, G. Nondal, R. G. J. Bellerby, S. L. Wakelin, J.T. Holt, M. Butenschön, and J. I. Allen The increase in atmospheric CO 2 is a dual threat to the marine environment: from one side it drives climate change leading to changes in water temperature, circulation patterns and stratification intensity; on the other side it causes a decrease in pH (Ocean Acidification or OA) due to the increase in dissolved CO 2 . Assessing the combined impact of climate change and OA on marine ecosystems is a challenging task: the response of the ecosystem to a single driver is highly variable and still uncertain, as well as the interaction between these that could be either synergistic or antagonistic. In this work we use the coupled oceanographic-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM driven by climate forcing to study the interaction between climate change and OA. We focus in particular on primary production and nitrogen speciation. The model has been run in three different configurations in order to separate the impacts of ocean acidification from those due to climate change. The model shows significant interaction among the drivers and high variability in the spatial response of the ecosystem. Impacts of climate change and of OA on primary production have similar magnitude, compensating in some area and exacerbating in others. On the contrary, the direct impact of OA on nitrification is much lower than the one imposed by climate change.

Description: On the role of mesoscale eddies for the biological productivity and biogeochemistry in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean off Peru Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 9179-9211, 2013 Author(s): L. Stramma, H. W. Bange, R. Czeschel, A. Lorenzo, and M. Frank Mesoscale eddies seem to play an important role for both the hydrography and biogeochemistry of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETSP) off Peru. However, detailed surveys of these eddies are not available, which has so far hampered an in depth understanding of their implications for nutrient distribution and biological productivity. In this study three eddies along a section at 16°45' S have been surveyed intensively during R/V Meteor cruise M90 in November 2012. A coastal mode water eddy, an open ocean mode water eddy and an open ocean cyclonic eddy have been identified and sampled in order to determine both their hydrographic properties and their influence on the biogeochemical setting of the ETSP. In the thermocline the temperature of the coastal anticyclonic eddy was up to 2 °C warmer, 0.2 more saline and the swirl velocity was up to 35 cm s –1 . The observed temperature and salinity anomalies, as well as swirl velocities of both types of eddies were about twice as large as had been described for the mean eddies in the ETSP and the observed heat and salt anomalies (AHA, ASA) show a much larger variability than the mean AHA and ASA. We found that the eddies contributed significantly to productivity by maintaining pronounced subsurface maxima of chlorophyll. Based on a comparison of the coastal (young) mode water eddy and the open ocean (old) mode water eddy we conclude that the aging of eddies when they detach from the coast and move westward to the open ocean considerably influences the eddies' properties: chlorophyll maxima are weaker and nutrients are subducted. The coastal mode water eddy was found to be a hotspot of nitrogen loss in the OMZ, whereas, the open ocean cyclonic eddy was of negligible importance for nitrogen loss. Our results show that the important role the eddies play in the ETSP can only be fully deciphered and understood through dedicated high spatial and temporal resolution oceanographic/biogeochemical surveys.

Description: Soil moisture modifies the response of soil respiration to temperature in a desert shrub ecosystem Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 9213-9242, 2013 Author(s): B. Wang, T. S. Zha, X. Jia, B. Wu, Y. Q. Zhang, and S. G. Qin The response of soil respiration (Rs) to soil temperature and moisture have been well documented in forests, but data and information from desert shrub ecosystems are limited. Soil CO 2 efflux from a desert shrub ecosystem was measured continuously with automated chambers in Ningxia, northwest China, from June to October 2012. The responses of Rs to Ts was strongly affected diurnally by soil moisture, with the diel variation in Rs being strongly related to 10 cm soil temperature (Ts) at moderate and high soil volumetric water content (VWC), but less related to Ts at low VWC. Ts typically lagged Rs by 3–4 h, however, the lag time varied in relation to VWC, with increased lag times at low VWC. Over the seasonal cycle, daily mean Rs was positively correlated with Ts when VWC exceeded 0.08 m 3 m −3 , but became decoupled from Ts when VWC dropped below this threshold. The annual temperature sensitivity of Rs ( Q 10 ) was 1.5. The short-term sensitivity of Rs to Ts, computed using three-day windows, varied significantly over the seasonal cycle; the short-term Q 10 was negatively correlated with Ts and positively correlated with VWC. These results suggest the potential for a negative feedback to climate warming in desert ecosystems, related to the impact of low soil moisture on Rs. The results highlight the biological causes of diel hysteresis between Rs and Ts and the need for carbon cycle models to account for the interacting effects of Ts and VWC as joint determinants of Rs in desert ecosystem.

Description: Do successive climate extremes weaken the resistance of plant communities? An experimental study using plant assemblages Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 9149-9177, 2013 Author(s): F. E. Dreesen, H. J. De Boeck, I. A. Janssens, and I. Nijs The probability that plant communities undergo successive climate extremes increases under climate change. Exposure to an extreme event might elicit acclimatory responses and thereby greater resistance to a subsequent event, but might also reduce resistance if the recovery period is too short or resilience too low. Using experimental plant assemblages, we compared the effects of two successive extremes (either two drought extremes, two heat extremes or two drought + heat extremes) to those of assemblages being exposed only to the second extreme. Additionally, the recovery period between the successive extremes was varied (2, 3.5 or 6 weeks). Among the different types of climate extremes, combined drought + heat extremes induced substantial leaf and plant mortality, while the effects of drought and heat extremes were smaller. Preceding drought + heat extremes lowered the resistance in terms of leaf survival to a subsequent drought + heat extreme if the recovery period was 2 weeks, even though the leaves had completely recovered during that interval. No reduced resistance to subsequent extremes was recorded with longer recovery times or with drought or heat extremes. Despite mortality on the short term, the drought + heat and the heat extremes increased the end-of-season aboveground biomass, independent of the number of events or the recovery period. These results show that the effect of a preceding extreme event disappears quite quickly, but that recurrent climate extremes with short time intervals can weaken the resistance of herbaceous plant assemblages. This can however be compensated afterwards through rapid recovery and secondary, positive effects in the longer term.

Description: Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems, fire, and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth System Model using the Representative Concentration Pathways Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 6171-6223, 2013 Author(s): R. A. Betts, N. Golding, P. Gonzalez, J. Gornall, R. Kahana, G. Kay, L. Mitchell, and A. Wiltshire A new generation of an Earth System Model now includes a number of land surface processes directly relevant to analyzing potential impacts of climate change. This model, HadGEM2-ES, allows us to assess the impacts of climate change, multiple interactions, and feedbacks as the model is run. This paper discusses the results of century-scale HadGEM2-ES simulations from an impacts perspective–specifically, terrestrial ecosystems and water resources–for four different scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), being used for next assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Over the 21st Century, simulated changes in global and continential-scale terrestrial ecosystems due to climate change appear to be very similar in all 4 RCPs, even though the level of global warming by the end of the 21st Century ranges from 2 °C in the lowest scenario to 5.5° in the highest. A warming climate generally favours broadleaf trees over needleleaf, needleleaf trees over shrubs, and shrubs over herbaceous vegetation, resulting in a poleward shift of temperate and boreal forests and woody tundra in all scenarios. Although climate related changes are slightly larger in scenarios of greater warming, the largest differences between scenarios arise at regional scales as a consequence of different patterns of anthropogenic land cover change. In the model, the scenario with the lowest global warming results in the most extensive decline in tropical forest cover due to a large expansion of agriculture. Under all four RCPs, fire potential could increase across extensive land areas, particularly tropical and sub-tropical latitudes. River outflows are simulated to increase with higher levels of CO 2 and global warming in all projections, with outflow increasing with mean temperature at the end of the 21st Century at the global scale and in North America, Asia, and Africa. In South America, Europe, and Australia, the relationship with climate warming and CO 2 rise is less clear, probably as a result of land cover change exerting a dominant effect in those regions.

Description: Horizontal distribution of Fukushima-derived radiocesium in zooplankton in the northwestern Pacific Ocean Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 6143-6170, 2013 Author(s): M. Kitamura, Y. Kumamoto, H. Kawakami, E. C. Cruz, and K. Fujikura The magnitude of the 9.0 Tohoku earthquake and the ensuing tsunami on 11 March 2011, inflicted heavy damage on the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (FNPP1). Fission products were emitted, falling over a broad range in the northern hemisphere, and water contaminated with radionuclides leaked into the ocean. In this study, we described the horizontal distribution of the Fukushima-derived radiocesium in zooplankton and in seawater in the western North Pacific Ocean (500–2100 km from the FNPP1) 10 months after the accident. 134 Cs and 137 Cs were detected in zooplankton and seawater from all the stations. Because of its short half-lives, 134 Cs detected in our samples could only be derived from the FNPP1 accident. The highest 137 Cs activity in zooplankton was same order of magnitude as that one month after the accident, and average activity was one or two orders of magnitude higher than 137 Cs activities observed before the accident around Japan. Horizontally, the radiocesium activity concentrations in zooplankton were high at around 25° N while those in surface seawater were high at around the transition area between the Kuroshio and the Oyashio Currents (36–40° N). We observed subsurface radiocesium maxima in density range of the North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water and occurrence of many diel vertical migratory zooplanktons. These suggested that the high activity concentrations in the subtropical zooplankton at around 25° N were connected to the subsurface radiocesium and active vertical migration of zooplankton. However, the high activity concentrations of radiocesium in subsurface seawater did not necessarily follow the higher radiocesium activity in zooplankton. Biological characteristics of zooplankton community possibly influenced how large was contamination of radiocesium in the community but it is still unknown what kind of biological factors were important.

Description: Estimating carbonate parameters from hydrographic data for the intermediate and deep waters of the Southern Hemisphere Oceans Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 6225-6257, 2013 Author(s): H. C. Bostock, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, and M. J. M. Williams Using GLODAP and CLIVAR ocean carbon data, we have developed several multiple linear regression (MLR) algorithms to estimate alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the intermediate and deep waters of the Southern Hemisphere (south of 25° S) from only hydrographic data (temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen). A Monte Carlo experiment was used to identify a potential density (σ θ ) of 27.5 as an optimal break point between the two regimes with different MLR algorithms. The algorithms provide a good estimate of DIC ( R 2 =0.98) and alkalinity ( R 2 =0.91), and excellent agreement for aragonite and calcite saturation states ( R 2 =0.99). Combining the algorithms with the CSIRO Atlas of Regional Seas (CARS), we have been able to map the calcite saturation horizon (CSH) and aragonite saturation horizon (ASH) for the Southern Ocean at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. These maps are more detailed and more consistent with oceanography than the gridded GLODAP data. The high resolution ASH map reveals a dramatic circumpolar shoaling at the Polar Front. North of 40° S the CSH is deepest in the Atlantic (~ 4000 m) and shallower in the Pacific Ocean (~ 2750 m), while the CSH sits between 3200 and 3400 m in the Indian Ocean.

Description: CDRD and PNPR satellite passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithms: EuroTRMM/EURAINSAT origins and H-SAF operations Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 887-912, 2013 Author(s): A. Mugnai, E. A. Smith, G. J. Tripoli, B. Bizzarri, D. Casella, S. Dietrich, F. Di Paola, G. Panegrossi, and P. Sanò Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) is a EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) program, designed to deliver satellite products of hydrological interest (precipitation, soil moisture and snow parameters) over the European and Mediterranean region to research and operations users worldwide. Six satellite precipitation algorithms and concomitant precipitation products are the responsibility of various agencies in Italy. Two of these algorithms have been designed for maximum accuracy by restricting their inputs to measurements from conical and cross-track scanning passive microwave (PMW) radiometers mounted on various low Earth orbiting satellites. They have been developed at the Italian National Research Council/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate in Rome (CNR/ISAC-Rome), and are providing operational retrievals of surface rain rate and its phase properties. Each of these algorithms is physically based, however, the first of these, referred to as the Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database (CDRD) algorithm, uses a Bayesian-based solution solver, while the second, referred to as the PMW Neural-net Precipitation Retrieval (PNPR) algorithm, uses a neural network-based solution solver. Herein we first provide an overview of the two initial EU research and applications programs that motivated their initial development, EuroTRMM and EURAINSAT (European Satellite Rainfall Analysis and Monitoring at the Geostationary Scale), and the current H-SAF program that provides the framework for their operational use and continued development. We stress the relevance of the CDRD and PNPR algorithms and their precipitation products in helping secure the goals of H-SAF's scientific and operations agenda, the former helpful as a secondary calibration reference to other algorithms in H-SAF's complete mix of algorithms. Descriptions of the algorithms' designs are provided including a few examples of their performance. This aspect of the development of the two algorithms is placed in the context of what we refer to as the TRMM era, which is the era denoting the active and ongoing period of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) that helped inspire their original development. In 2015, the ISAC-Rome precipitation algorithms will undergo a transformation beginning with the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, particularly the GPM Core Satellite technologies. A few years afterward, the first pair of imaging and sounding Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satellites will be launched, providing additional technological advances. Various of the opportunities presented by the GPM Core and MTG satellites for improving the current CDRD and PNPR precipitation retrieval algorithms, as well as extending their product capability, are discussed.

Description: Productivity of aboveground coarse wood biomass and stand age related to soil hydrology of Amazonian forests in the Purus-Madeira interfluvial area Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 6417-6459, 2013 Author(s): B. B. L. Cintra, J. Schietti, T. Emillio, D. Martins, G. Moulatlet, P. Souza, C. Levis, C. A. Quesada, and J. Schöngart The ongoing demand for information on forest productivity has increased the number of permanent monitoring plots across the Amazon. Those plots, however, do not comprise the whole diversity of forest types in the Amazon. The complex effects of soil, climate and hydrology on the productivity of seasonally waterlogged interfluvial wetland forests are still poorly understood. The presented study is the first field-based estimate for tree ages and wood biomass productivity in the vast interfluvial region between the Purus and Madeira rivers. We estimate stand age and wood biomass productivity by a combination of tree-ring data and allometric equations for biomass stocks of eight plots distributed along 600 km in the Purus-Madeira interfluvial area that is crossed by the BR-319 highway. We relate stand age and wood biomass productivity to hydrological and edaphic conditions. Mean productivity and stand age were 5.6 ± 1.1 Mg ha −1 yr −1 and 102 ± 18 yr, respectively. There is a strong relationship between tree age and diameter, as well as between mean diameter increment and mean wood density within a plot. Regarding the soil hydromorphic properties we find a positive correlation with wood biomass productivity and a negative relationship with stand age. Productivity also shows a positive correlation with the superficial phosphorus concentration. In addition, superficial phosphorus concentration increases with enhanced soil hydromorphic condition. We raise three hypotheses to explain these results: (1) the reduction of iron molecules on the saturated soils with plinthite layers close to the surface releases available phosphorous for the plants; (2) the poor structure of the saturated soils creates an environmental filter selecting tree species of faster growth rates and shorter life spans and (3) plant growth on saturated soil is favored during the dry season, since there should be low restrictions for soil water availability.

Description: Sources and fate of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon in lakes of a Boreal Plains region recently affected by wildfire Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 6093-6141, 2013 Author(s): D. Olefeldt, K. J. Devito, and M. R. Turetsky Downstream mineralization and sedimentation of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) render lakes important for landscape carbon cycling in the boreal region, with regulating processes potentially sensitive to perturbations associated with climate change including increased occurrence of wildfire. In this study we assessed chemical composition and reactivity (during both dark and UV incubations) of DOC from lakes and terrestrial sources within a peatland-rich western boreal plains region partially affected by a recent wildfire. While wildfire was found to increase aromaticity of DOC in peat pore-water above the water table, it had no effect on concentrations or composition of DOC from peatland wells and neither affected mineral well or lake DOC characteristics. Lake DOC composition reflected a mixing of peatland and mineral groundwater, with a greater influence of mineral sources to lakes in coarse- than fine-textured settings. Peatland DOC was less biodegradable than mineral DOC, but both mineralization and sedimentation of peatland DOC increased substantially during UV incubations through selective removal of aromatic humic and fulvic acids. DOC composition in lakes with longer residence times had characteristics consistent with increased UV-mediated processing. We estimate that about half of terrestrial DOC inputs had been lost within lakes, mostly due to UV-mediated processes. The importance of within-lake losses of aromatic DOC from peatland sources through UV-mediated processes indicate that terrestrial-aquatic C linkages in the study region are largely disconnected from recent terrestrial primary productivity. Together, our results suggest that characteristics of the study region (climate, surface geology and lake morphometry) render linkages between terrestrial and aquatic C cycling insensitive to the effects of wildfire by determining dominant terrestrial sources and within-lake processes of DOC removal.

Description: Solute specific scaling of inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus uptake in streams Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 6671-6693, 2013 Author(s): R. O. Hall Jr., M. A. Baker, E. J. Rosi-Marshall, and J. L. Tank Stream ecosystem processes such as nutrient cycling may vary with stream position in the watershed. Using a scaling approach, we examined the relationship between stream size and nutrient uptake length, which represents the mean distance that a dissolved solute travels prior to removal from the water column. Ammonium uptake length increased proportionally with stream size measured as specific discharge (discharge/stream width) with a scaling exponent = 1.01. In contrast, the scaling exponent for nitrate (NO 3 − ) was 1.19 and for soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) was 1.35, suggesting that uptake lengths for these nutrients increased more rapidly than increases in specific discharge. Additionally, the ratio of nitrogen (N) uptake length to SRP uptake length declined with stream size; there was lower demand for SRP relative to N as stream size increased. Ammonium and NO 3 − uptake velocity positively related with stream metabolism, while SRP did not. Finally, we related the scaling of uptake length and specific discharge to that of stream length using Hack's law and downstream hydraulic geometry. Ammonium uptake length increased less than proportionally with distance from the headwaters, suggesting a strong role for larger streams and rivers in regulating nutrient transport.

Description: Responses of lower trophic-level organisms to typhoon passage on the outer shelf of the East China Sea: an incubation experiment Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 6605-6635, 2013 Author(s): N. Yasuki, K. Suzuki, and A. Tsuda Typhoons can induce vertical mixing, upwelling, or both in the water column due to strong wind stress. These events can induce phytoplankton blooms in the oligotrophic ocean after typhoon passage. However, little is known about the responses of lower trophic-level organisms or changes in the community structure following the passage of typhoons, particularly in offshore regions. Therefore, we evaluated community succession on the outer shelf of the East China Sea through on-deck bottle incubation experiments simulating hydrographic conditions after the passage of a typhoon. Under all of the experimental conditions we tested, chlorophyll a concentrations increased more than 9-fold within 6 days, and these algal cells were mainly composed of large diatoms (〉10 μm). Ciliates also increased along with the diatom bloom. These results suggest that increases in diatom and ciliate populations may enhance biogenic carbon export in the water column. Typhoons can affect not only phytoplankton productivity, but also the composition of lower trophic-level organisms and biogeochemical processes in oligotrophic offshore regions.

Description: Icehouse-greenhouse variations in marine denitrification Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 14769-14813, 2013 Author(s): T. J. Algeo, P. A. Meyers, R. S. Robinson, H. Rowe, and G. Q. Jiang Long-term secular variation in the isotopic composition of seawater fixed nitrogen (N) is poorly known. Here, we document variation in the N-isotopic composition of marine sediments (δ 15 N sed ) since 660 Ma (million years ago) in order to understand major changes in the marine N cycle through time and their relationship to first-order climate variation. During the Phanerozoic, greenhouse climate modes were characterized by low δ 15 N sed (∼ −2 to +2‰) and icehouse climate modes by high δ 15 N sed (∼ +4 to +8‰). Shifts toward higher δ 15 N sed occurred rapidly during the early stages of icehouse modes, prior to the development of major continental glaciation, suggesting a potentially important role for the marine N cycle in long-term climate change. Reservoir box modeling of the marine N cycle demonstrates that secular variation in δ 15 N sed was likely due to changes in the dominant locus of denitrification, with a shift in favor of sedimentary denitrification during greenhouse modes owing to higher eustatic (global sea-level) elevations and greater on-shelf burial of organic matter, and a shift in favor of water-column denitrification during icehouse modes owing to lower eustatic elevations, enhanced organic carbon sinking fluxes, and expanded oceanic oxygen-minimum zones. The results of this study provide new insights into operation of the marine N cycle, its relationship to the global carbon cycle, and its potential role in modulating climate change at multimillion-year timescales.

Description: Technical Note: Disturbance of soil structure can lead to release of methane entrapped in glacier forefield soils Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 14815-14834, 2013 Author(s): P. A. Nauer, E. Chiri, J. Zeyer, and M. H. Schroth Investigations of sources and sinks of atmospheric CH 4 are needed to understand the global CH 4 cycle and climate-change mitigation options. Glaciated environments might play a critical role due to potential feedbacks with global glacial meltdown. In an emerging glacier forefield, an ecological shift occurs from an anoxic, potentially methanogenic subglacial sediment to an oxic proglacial soil, in which soil-microbial consumption of atmospheric CH 4 is initiated. The development of this change in CH 4 turnover can be quantified by soil-gas profile analysis. We found evidence for CH 4 entrapped in glacier forefield soils when comparing two methods for the collection of soil-gas samples: a modified steel rod (SR) designed for one-time sampling and rapid screening (samples collected ~ 1 min after hammering the SR into the soil), and a novel multi-level sampler (MLS) for repetitive sampling through a previously installed access tube (samples collected weeks after access-tube installation). In glacier forefields on siliceous bedrock, sub-atmospheric CH 4 concentrations were observed with both methods. Conversely, elevated soil-CH 4 concentrations were observed in calcareous glacier forefields, but only in samples collected with the SR, while MLS samples all showed sub-atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. Time-series SR soil-gas sampling (additional samples collected 2, 3, 5, and 7 min after hammering) confirmed the transient nature of the elevated soil-CH 4 concentrations, which were decreasing from ~ 100 μL L −1 towards background levels within minutes. This hints towards the existence of entrapped CH 4 in calcareous glacier forefield soil that can be released when sampling soil-gas with the SR. Laboratory experiments with miniature soil cores collected from two glacier forefields confirmed CH 4 entrapment in these soils. Treatment by sonication and acidification resulted in a massive release of CH 4 from calcareous cores (on average 0.3–1.8 μg CH 4 (g d.w.) −1 ); release from siliceous cores was 1–2 orders of magnitude lower (0.02–0.03 μg CH 4 (g d.w.) −1 ). Clearly, some form of CH 4 entrapment exists in calcareous glacier forefield soils, and to a much lesser extent in siliceous glacier forefield soils. Its nature and origin remain unclear and will be subject of future investigations.

Description: Dynamics of particulate organic carbon flux in a global ocean model Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 14715-14767, 2013 Author(s): I. D. Lima, P. J. Lam, and S. C. Doney The sinking of particulate organic carbon (POC) is a key component of the ocean carbon cycle and plays an important role in the global climate system. However, the processes controlling the fraction of primary production that is exported from the euphotic zone (export ratio) and how much of it survives respiration in the mesopelagic to be sequestered in the deep ocean (transfer efficiency) are not well understood. In this study, we use a three-dimensional, coupled physical-biogeochemical model (CCSM-BEC) to investigate the processes controlling the export of particulate organic matter from the euphotic zone and its flux to depth. We also compare model results with sediment trap data and other parameterizations of POC flux to depth to evaluate model skill and gain further insight into the causes of error and uncertainty in POC flux estimates. In the model, export ratios are mainly a function of diatom relative abundance and temperature while absolute fluxes and transfer efficiency are driven by mineral ballast composition of sinking material. The temperature dependence of the POC remineralization length scale is modulated by denitrification under low O 2 concentrations and lithogenic (dust) fluxes. Lithogenic material is an important control of transfer efficiency in the model, but its effect is restricted to regions of strong atmospheric dust deposition. In the remaining regions, CaCO 3 content of exported material is the main factor affecting transfer efficiency. The fact that mineral ballast composition is inextricably linked to plankton community structure results in correlations between export ratios and ballast minerals fluxes (opal and CaCO 3 ), and transfer efficiency and diatom relative abundance that do not necessarily reflect ballast or direct ecosystem effects, respectively. This suggests that it might be difficult to differentiate between ecosystem and ballast effects in observations. The model's skill at reproducing sediment trap observations is equal to or better than that of other parameterizations. However, the sparseness and relatively large uncertainties of sediment trap data makes it difficult to accurately evaluate the skill of the model and other parameterizations. More POC flux observations, over a wider range of ecological regimes, are necessary to thoroughly evaluate and test model results and better understand the processes controlling POC flux to depth in the ocean.

Description: Thin terrestrial sediment deposits on intertidal sandflats: effects on pore water solutes and juvenile bivalve burial behaviour Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 14835-14860, 2013 Author(s): A. Hohaia, K. Vopel, and C. A. Pilditch Changes in land use and climate increase the supply of terrestrial sediment (hereafter, TS) to coastal waters worldwide but the effects of these sediments on benthic ecosystem functioning are not well known. Past experiments with defaunated, intertidal sediment suggested a link between the de-oxygenation of sediments underlying a thin (mm) layer of TS and reduced burial rates of juvenile macrofaunal recruits. We examined this link predicting that surficial TS deposits will still negatively affect burial when applied to sediments that are initially well oxygenated due to bioturbation (C) or depleted of organic matter (D). We observed the behaviour of post-settlement juveniles of the tellinid bivalve \textit{Macomona liliana} on the surface of four treatments; C, D, and the same sediments to which we added a thin layer of TS (CTS, DTS). Pore water analyses confirmed that the diffusive impedance of the 1.7–1.9 mm TS deposit decreased the oxygenation of the underlying intertidal sediment (CTS) but not that of the depleted sediment (DTS). Unexpectedly, (1) the application of a TS deposit significantly increased but not decreased the probability of burial, irrespectively of treatment, and (2) juveniles more likely buried into C than into D. We attribute the failure to document a negative effect of TS on the recruits' burial to the activity of the resident macroinfauna (CTS) or the absence of organic matter (DTS). Our results underline the important role of the resident macrofauna in mediating the stress response of benthic ecosystems.

Description: Calcium carbonate corrosivity in an Alaskan inland sea Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 14887-14922, 2013 Author(s): W. Evans, J. T. Mathis, and J. N. Cross Ocean acidification is the hydrogen ion increase caused by the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 , and is a focal point in marine biogeochemistry, in part, because this chemical reaction reduces calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) saturation states (Ω) to levels that are corrosive (i.e. Ω ≤ 1) to shell-forming marine organisms. However, other processes can drive CaCO 3 corrosivity; specifically, the addition of tidewater glacial melt. Carbonate system data collected in May and September from 2009 through 2012 in Prince William Sound (PWS), a semi-enclosed inland sea located on the south-central coast of Alaska that is ringed with fjords containing tidewater glaciers, reveal the unique impact of glacial melt on CaCO 3 corrosivity. Initial limited sampling was expanded in September 2011 to span large portions of the western and central sound, and included two fjords proximal to tidewater glaciers: Icy Bay and Columbia Bay. The observed conditions in these fjords affected CaCO 3 corrosivity in the upper water column (

Description: Influence of management of variables, sampling zones and land units on LR analysis for landslide spatial prevision Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2209-2221, 2013 Author(s): R. Greco and M. Sorriso-Valvo Several authors, according to different methodological approaches, have employed logistic Regression (LR), a multivariate statistical analysis adopted to assess the spatial probability of landslide, even though its fundamental principles have remained unaltered. This study aims at assessing the influence of some of these methodological approaches on the performance of LR, through a series of sensitivity analyses developed over a test area of about 300 km 2 in Calabria (southern Italy). In particular, four types of sampling (1 – the whole study area; 2 – transects running parallel to the general slope direction of the study area with a total surface of about 1/3 of the whole study area; 3 – buffers surrounding the phenomena with a 1/1 ratio between the stable and the unstable area; 4 – buffers surrounding the phenomena with a 1/2 ratio between the stable and the unstable area), two variable coding modes (1 – grouped variables; 2 – binary variables), and two types of elementary land (1 – cells units; 2 – slope units) units have been tested. The obtained results must be considered as statistically relevant in all cases (Aroc values 〉 70%), thus confirming the soundness of the LR analysis which maintains high predictive capacities notwithstanding the features of input data. As for the area under investigation, the best performing methodological choices are the following: (i) transects produced the best results (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 93.4%; Aroc = 79.5%); (ii) as for sampling modalities, binary variables (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 98.3%; Aroc = 80.7%) provide better performance than ordinated variables; (iii) as for the choice of elementary land units, slope units (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 100%; Aroc = 84.2%) have obtained better results than cells matrix.

Description: Risk evolution: how can changes in the built environment influence the potential loss of natural hazards? Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2195-2207, 2013 Author(s): B. Schwendtner, M. Papathoma-Köhle, and T. Glade Alpine areas often suffer significant loss and damage due to a range of natural processes such as landslides, debris flows, snow avalanches or floods. Sealing of the soil surface, settling in endangered areas and enhanced human intervention in the natural settings, as well as socio-economic changes, increase the risk and susceptibility of built environments to natural hazards and the costs of the consequences in a spatio-temporal context. The present study examines the loss estimation of a particular debris flow event for different points in time. The event occurred in August 1987, affected the municipality Martell in South Tyrol, Italy, and resulted in a total cost of € 25 million. The approach presented in this paper focuses on the changes of the land use and settlement expansion in the area since 1954 and attempts to assess the monetary impact of a similar event, which could have happened before (1954, 1985) or following the actual event (1992, 1999, 2006). The method applied is based on the use of a vulnerability curve which was developed for the specific area, based on the documentation of the damage of the 1987 event. Based on this curve, a loss estimation was carried out in order to visualise the risk evolution in a period of 52 yr (1954 to 2006). The results show a significant increase in the extent of the built environment (number, size and value of buildings) which consequently reflect an increase of the potential overall loss through the years. The method can be used in order to assess the potential loss for future scenarios based on different spatial patterns of the built environment.

Description: Surface circulation and upwelling patterns around Sri Lanka Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 14953-14998, 2013 Author(s): A. de Vos, C. B. Pattiaratchi, and E. M. S. Wijeratne Sri Lanka occupies a unique location within the equatorial belt in the northern Indian Ocean with the Arabian Sea on its western side and the Bay of Bengal on its eastern side. The region is characterised by bi-annually reversing monsoon winds resulting from seasonal differential heating and cooling of the continental land mass and the ocean. This study explored elements of the dynamics of the surface circulation and coastal upwelling in the waters around Sri Lanka using satellite imagery and the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) configured to the study region and forced with ECMWF interim data. The model was run for 2 yr to examine the seasonal and shorter term (∼10 days) variability. The results confirmed the presence of the reversing current system in response to the changing wind field: the eastward flowing Southwest Monsoon Current (SMC) during the Southwest (SW) monsoon transporting 11.5 Sv and the westward flowing Northeast Monsoon Current (NMC) transporting 9.5 Sv during the Northeast (NE) monsoon, respectively. A recirculation feature located to the east of Sri Lanka during the SW monsoon, the Sri Lanka Dome, is shown to result from the interaction between the SMC and the Island of Sri Lanka. Along the eastern and western coasts, during both monsoon periods, flow is southward converging along the south coast. During the SW monsoon the Island deflects the eastward flowing SMC southward whilst along the east coast the southward flow results from the Sri Lanka Dome recirculation. The major upwelling region, during both monsoon periods, is located along the south coast and is shown to be due to flow convergence and divergence associated with offshore transport of water. Higher surface chlorophyll concentrations were observed during the SW monsoon. The location of the flow convergence and hence the upwelling centre was dependent on the relative strengths of wind driven flow along the east and west coasts: during the SW (NE) monsoon the flow along the western (eastern) coast was stronger and hence the upwelling centre was shifted to the east (west). The presence of upwelling along the south coast during both monsoon periods may explain the blue whale ( Balaenoptera musculus ) aggregations in this region.

Description: Wind shear over the Nice Côte d'Azur airport: case studies Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2223-2238, 2013 Author(s): A. Boilley and J.-F. Mahfouf The Nice Côte d'Azur international airport is subject to horizontal low-level wind shears. Detecting and predicting these hazards is a major concern for aircraft security. A measurement campaign took place over the Nice airport in 2009 including 4 anemometers, 1 wind lidar and 1 wind profiler. Two wind shear events were observed during this measurement campaign. Numerical simulations were carried out with Meso-NH in a configuration compatible with near-real time applications to determine the ability of the numerical model to predict these events and to study the meteorological situations generating an horizontal wind shear. A comparison between numerical simulation and the observation dataset is conducted in this paper.

Description: Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2239-2251, 2013 Author(s): M. L. R. Liberato, J. G. Pinto, R. M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, and I. F. Trigo In winter of 2009–2010 south-western Europe was hit by several destructive windstorms. The most important was Xynthia (26–28 February 2010), which caused 64 reported casualties and was classified as the 2nd most expensive natural hazard event for 2010 in terms of economic losses. In this work we assess the synoptic evolution, dynamical characteristics and the main impacts of storm Xynthia, whose genesis, development and path were very uncommon. Wind speed gusts observed at more than 500 stations across Europe are evaluated as well as the wind gust field obtained with a regional climate model simulation for the entire North Atlantic and European area. Storm Xynthia was first identified on 25 February around 30° N, 50° W over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Its genesis occurred on a region characterized by warm and moist air under the influence of a strong upper level wave embedded in the westerlies. Xynthia followed an unusual SW–NE path towards Iberia, France and central Europe. The role of moist air masses on the explosive development of Xynthia is analysed by considering the evaporative sources. A lagrangian model is used to identify the moisture sources, sinks and moisture transport associated with the cyclone during its development phase. The main supply of moisture is located over an elongated region of the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean with anomalously high SST, confirming that the explosive development of storm Xynthia had a significant contribution from the subtropics.

Description: Strong sensitivity of Southern Ocean carbon uptake and nutrient cycling to wind stirring Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15033-15076, 2013 Author(s): K. B. Rodgers, O. Aumont, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, Y. Plancherel, L. Bopp, C. de Boyer Montégut, D. Iudicone, R. F. Keeling, G. Madec, and R. Wanninkhof Here we test the hypothesis that winds have an important role in determining the rate of exchange of CO 2 between the atmosphere and ocean through wind stirring over the Southern Ocean. This is tested with a sensitivity study using an ad hoc parameterization of wind stirring in an ocean carbon cycle model. The objective is to identify the way in which perturbations to the vertical density structure of the planetary boundary in the ocean impacts the carbon cycle and ocean biogeochemistry. Wind stirring leads to reduced uptake of CO 2 by the Southern Ocean over the period 2000–2006, with differences of order 0.9 Pg C yr −1 over the region south of 45° S. Wind stirring impacts not only the mean carbon uptake, but also the phasing of the seasonal cycle of carbon and other species associated with ocean biogeochemistry. Enhanced wind stirring delays the seasonal onset of stratification, and this has large impacts on both entrainment and the biological pump. It is also found that there is a strong sensitivity of nutrient concentrations exported in Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) to wind stirring. This finds expression not only locally over the Southern Ocean, but also over larger scales through the impact on advected nutrients. In summary, the large sensitivity identified with the ad hoc wind stirring parameterization offers support for the importance of wind stirring for global ocean biogeochemistry, through its impact over the Southern Ocean.

Description: Seismic behavior of buried pipelines constructed by design criteria and construction specifications of both Korea and the US Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2271-2278, 2013 Author(s): S.-S. Jeon Earthquake loss estimation systems in the US, for example HAZUS (Hazard in US), have been established based on sufficient damage records for the purpose of prevention and efficient response to earthquake hazards; however, in Korea, insufficient data sets of earthquakes and damage records are currently available. In this study, the earthquake damages to pipelines in Korea using the pipeline repair rate (RR) recommended in HAZUS was reevaluated with the degree of confidence when RR is used without modification for the damage estimation of pipelines in Korea. The numerical analyses using a commercial finite element model, ABAQUS, were carried out to compare stresses and strains mobilized in both brittle and ductile pipelines constructed by the design criteria and construction specifications of both Korea and the US. These pipelines were embedded in dense sand overlying three different in situ soils (clay, sand, and gravel) subjected to earthquake excitations with peak ground accelerations (PGAs) of 0.2 to 1.2 g and 1994 Northridge and 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake loadings. The numerical results show that differences in the stress and strain rates are less than 10%. This implies that RR in HAZUS can be used for earthquake damage estimation of pipelines with a 90% confidence level in Korea.

Description: Seismic zones for Azores based on statistical criteria Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2337-2351, 2013 Author(s): M. C. M. Rodrigues and C. S. Oliveira The objective of this paper is to define seismic zones in the Azores based on statistical criteria. These seismic zones will likely be used in seismic simulations of occurrences in the Azores Archipelago. The data used in this work cover the time period from 1915 to 2011. The Azores region was divided into 1° × 1° area units, for which the seismicity and the maximum magnitudes of events were calculated. The seismicity, the largest earthquakes recorded and the geological characteristics of the region were used to group these area units because similar seismic zones must delineate areas with homogeneous seismic characteristics. We have identified seven seismic zones. To verify that the defined areas differ statistically, we considered the following dissimilarity measures (variables): time, size and seismic conditions – the number of seismic events with specific characteristics. Statistical tests, particularly goodness-of-fit tests, allowed us to conclude that, considering these three variables, the seven earthquake zones defined here are statistically distinct.

Description: Sub-ionospheric very low frequency perturbations associated with the 12 May 2008 M = 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2331-2336, 2013 Author(s): A. K. Maurya, R. Singh, B. Veenadhari, S. Kumar, and A. K. Singh The present study reports the VLF (very low frequency) sub-ionospheric perturbations observed on transmitter JJI (22.1 kHz), Japan, received at the Indian low-latitude station, Allahabad ( geographic lat. 25.41° N, long 81.93° E), due to Wenchuan earthquake (EQ) that occurred on 12 May 2008 with the magnitude 7.9 and at the depth of 19 km in Sichuan province of Southwest China, located at 31.0° N, 103.4° E. The nighttime amplitude fluctuation analysis gives a significant increase in fluctuation and dispersion two days before EQ, when it crosses 2σ criterion. However, there was no significant change observed in the amplitude trend. The diurnal amplitude variation shows a significant increase in the amplitude of JJI signal on 11 and 12 May 2008. The gravity wave channel and changes in the electric field associated with this EQ seem to be the potential factors of the observed nighttime amplitude fluctuation, dispersion, and significant increase in the signal strength.

Description: Impact of seawater Ca 2+ on the calcification and calcite Mg/Ca of Amphistegina lessonii Biogeosciences Discussions, 11, 17463-17489, 2014 Author(s): A. Mewes, G. Langer, S. Thoms, G. Nehrke, G.-J. Reichart, L. J. de Nooijer, and J. Bijma Mg/Ca ratios in foraminiferal tests are routinely used as paleo temperature proxy, but on long timescales, also hold the potential to reconstruct past seawater Mg/Ca. Impact of both temperature and seawater Mg/Ca on Mg incorporation in foraminifera have been quantified by a number of studies. The underlying mechanism responsible for Mg incorporation in foraminiferal calcite and its sensitivity to environmental conditions, however, is not fully identified. A recently published biomineralization model (Nehrke et al., 2013) proposes a combination of transmembrane transport and seawater leakage or vacuolization to link calcite Mg/Ca to seawater Mg/Ca and explains inter-species variability in Mg/Ca ratios. To test the assumptions of this model, we conducted a culture study in which seawater Mg/Ca was manipulated by varying [Ca 2+ ] and keeping [Mg 2+ ] constant. Foraminiferal growth rates, test thickness and calcite Mg/Ca of newly formed chambers were analyzed. Results showed optimum growth rates and test thickness at Mg/Ca closest to that of ambient seawater. Calcite Mg/Ca is positively correlated to seawater Mg/Ca, indicating that not absolute seawater [Ca 2+ ] and [Mg 2+ ], but the telative ratio controls Mg/Ca in tests. These results demonstrate that the calcification process cannot be based only on seawater vacuolization, supporting the mixing model proposed by Nehrke et al. (2013). Here we, however, suggest a transmembrane transport fractionation that is not as strong as suggested by Nehrke et al. (2013).

Description: Fluxes of carbon and nutrients to the Iceland Sea surface layer and inferred primary productivity and stoichiometry Biogeosciences Discussions, 11, 15399-15433, 2014 Author(s): E. Jeansson, R. G. J. Bellerby, I. Skjelvan, H. Frigstad, S. R. Ólafsdóttir, and J. Ólafsson Fluxes of carbon and nutrients to the upper 100 m of the Iceland Sea are evaluated. The study utilises hydro-chemical data from the Iceland Sea time-series station (68.00° N, 12.67° W), for the years between 1993 and 2006. By comparing data of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and nutrients in the surface layer (upper 100 m), and a sub-surface layer (100–200 m), we calculate monthly deficits in the surface, and use these to deduce the surface layer fluxes that affect the deficits: vertical mixing, horizontal advection, air–sea exchange, and biological activity. The deficits show a clear seasonality with a minimum in winter, when the mixed layer is at the deepest, and a maximum in early autumn, when biological uptake has removed much of the nutrients. The annual vertical fluxes of DIC and nitrate amounts to 1.7 ± 0.3 and 0.23 ± 0.07 mol m −2 yr −1 , respectively, and the annual air–sea uptake of atmospheric CO 2 is 4.4 ± 1.1 mol m −2 yr −1 . The biologically driven changes in DIC during the year relates to net community production (NCP), and the net annual NCP corresponds to export production, and is here calculated to 6.1 ± 0.9 mol C m −2 yr −1 . The typical, median C : N ratio during the period of net community uptake is 11, and thus clearly higher than Redfield, but is varying during the season.

Description: Technical Note: Artificial coral reef mesocosms for ocean acidification investigations Biogeosciences Discussions, 11, 15463-15505, 2014 Author(s): J. Leblud, L. Moulin, A. Batigny, P. Dubois, and P. Grosjean The design and evaluation of replicated artificial mesocosms are presented in the context of a thirteen month experiment on the effects of ocean acidification on tropical coral reefs. They are defined here as (semi)-closed (i.e. with or without water change from the reef) mesocosms in the laboratory with a more realistic physico-chemical environment than microcosms. Important physico-chemical parameters (i.e. pH, p O 2 , p CO 2 , total alkalinity, temperature, salinity, total alkaline earth metals and nutrients availability) were successfully monitored and controlled. Daily variations of irradiance and pH were applied to approach field conditions. Results highlighted that it was possible to maintain realistic physico-chemical parameters, including daily changes, into artificial mesocosms. On the other hand, the two identical artificial mesocosms evolved differently in terms of global community oxygen budgets although the initial biological communities and physico-chemical parameters were comparable. Artificial reef mesocosms seem to leave enough degrees of freedom to the enclosed community of living organisms to organize and change along possibly diverging pathways.

Description: Phytoplankton community structure in the North Sea: coupling between remote sensing and automated in situ analysis at the single cell level Biogeosciences Discussions, 11, 15621-15662, 2014 Author(s): M. Thyssen, S. Alvain, A. Lefèbvre, D. Dessailly, M. Rijkeboer, N. Guiselin, V. Creach, and L.-F. Artigas Phytoplankton observation in the ocean can be a challenge in oceanography. Accurate estimations of their biomass and dynamics will help to understand ocean ecosystems and refine global climate models. This requires relevant datasets of phytoplankton at a functional level and on a daily and sub meso scale. In order to achieve this, an automated, high frequency, dedicated scanning flow cytometer (SFC, Cytobuoy, NL), has been developed to cover the entire size range of phytoplankton cells whilst simultaneously taking pictures of the largest of them. This cytometer was directly connected to the water inlet of a~pocket Ferry Box during a cruise in the North Sea, 8–12 May 2011 (DYMAPHY project, INTERREG IV A "2 Seas"), in order to identify the phytoplankton community structure of near surface waters (6 m) with a high resolution spacial basis (2.2 ± 1.8 km). Ten groups of cells, distinguished on the basis of their optical pulse shapes, were described (abundance, size estimate, red fluorescence per unit volume). Abundances varied depending on the hydrological status of the traversed waters, reflecting different stages of the North Sea blooming period. Comparisons between several techniques analyzing chlorophyll a and the scanning flow cytometer, using the integrated red fluorescence emitted by each counted cell, showed significant correlations. The community structure observed from the automated flow cytometry was compared with the PHYSAT reflectance anomalies over a daily scale. The number of matchups observed between the SFC automated high frequency in situ sampling and the remote sensing was found to be two to three times better than when using traditional water sampling strategies. Significant differences in the phytoplankton community structure within the two days for which matchups were available, suggest that it is possible to label PHYSAT anomalies not only with dominant groups, but at the level of the community structure.

Description: Long term effects on regional European boreal climate due to structural vegetation changes Biogeosciences Discussions, 11, 15507-15547, 2014 Author(s): J. H. Rydsaa, F. Stordal, and L. M. Tallaksen Amplified warming at high latitudes over the past decades has led to changes in the boreal and arctic climate system, such as structural changes in high latitude ecosystems and soil moisture properties. These changes trigger land-atmosphere feedbacks, through altered energy partitioning in response to changes in albedo and surface water fluxes. Local scale changes in the arctic and boreal zone may propagate to affect large scale climatic features. In this study, MODIS land surface data are used with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF V3.5.1) and Noah LSM, in a series of experiments to simulate the influence of structural vegetation changes over a Northern European boreal ecosystem. Emphasis is placed on surface energy partitioning and near surface atmospheric variables, in order to investigate changes in atmospheric response due to observed and anticipated structural vegetation changes. We find that a northward migration of evergreen needle leaf forest into tundra regions causes an increase in latent rather than sensible heat fluxes, increased near surface temperatures and boundary layer height. Shrub expansion in tundra areas has only small effects on surface fluxes. However, it influences near surface wind speeds and boundary layer height. Northward migration of mixed forest across the present southern border of the boreal forest has largely opposite effects on surface fluxes and the near surface atmosphere, and acts to moderate the overall mean regional effects of boreal forest migration on the near surface atmosphere.

Description: Spatial variability and hotspots of soil N 2 O fluxes from intensively grazed grassland Biogeosciences Discussions, 11, 15327-15360, 2014 Author(s): N. J. Cowan, P. Norman, D. Famulari, P. E. Levy, D. S. Reay, and U. M. Skiba One hundred N 2 O flux measurements were made from an area of intensively managed grazed grassland in central Scotland using a high resolution dynamic chamber method. The field contained a variety of features from which N 2 O fluxes were measured including a manure heap, patches of decaying grass silage, and areas of increased sheep activity. Individual fluxes varied significantly across the field varying from 2 to 79 000 μg N 2 O-N m −2 h −1 . Soil samples were collected at 55 locations to investigate relationships between soil properties and N 2 O flux. Fluxes of N 2 O correlated strongly with soil NO 3 − concentrations. Distribution of NO 3 − and the high spatial variability of N 2 O flux across the field are shown to be linked to the distribution of waste from grazing animals and the resultant reactive nitrogen compounds in the soil which are made available for microbiological processes. Features within the field such as shaded areas and manure heaps contained significantly higher available nitrogen than the rest of the field. Although these features only represented 1.1% of the area of the field, they contributed to over 55% of the total estimated daily N 2 O flux.

Description: Size-fractionated dissolved primary production and carbohydrate composition of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi Biogeosciences Discussions, 11, 15289-15325, 2014 Author(s): C. Borchard and A. Engel Extracellular release (ER) by phytoplankton is the major source of fresh dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in marine ecosystems and accompanies primary production during all growth phases. Little is known, so far, on size and composition of released molecules, and to which extent ER occurs passively, by leakage, or actively, by exudation. Here, we report on ER by the widespread and bloom-forming coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi grown under steady state conditions in phosphorus controlled chemostats (N : P = 29, growth rate of μ = 0.2 d −1 ). 14 C incubations were accomplished to determine primary production (PP), comprised by particulate (PO 14 C) and dissolved organic carbon (DO 14 C), and the concentration and composition of particulate combined carbohydrates (pCCHO), and of high molecular weight (〉1 kDa, HMW) dissolved combined carbohydrates (dCCHO) as major components of ER. Information on size distribution of ER products was obtained by investigating distinct size classes (

Description: A catalog of high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2867-2882, 2014 Author(s): P. Stucki, S. Brönnimann, O. Martius, C. Welker, M. Imhof, N. von Wattenwyl, and N. Philipp In recent decades, extremely hazardous windstorms have caused enormous losses to buildings, infrastructure and forests in Switzerland. This has increased societal and scientific interest in the intensity and frequency of historical high-impact storms. However, high-resolution wind data and damage statistics mostly span recent decades only. For this study, we collected quantitative (e.g., volumes of windfall timber, losses relating to buildings) and descriptive (e.g., forestry or insurance reports) information on the impact of historical windstorms. To define windstorm severity, normalized and declustered quantitative data were processed by extreme value statistics. Descriptive information was classified using a conceptual guideline. Validation with independent damage information, as well as comparison with wind measurements and a reanalysis, indicates that the most hazardous winter storms are captured, while too few moderate windstorms are detected. Strong storms in the wind measurements and reanalysis are thus added to the catalog. The final catalog encompasses approximately 240 high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859. It features three robust severity classes and contains eight extreme windstorms. Evidence of high winter storm activity in the early and late 20th century compared to the mid-20th century in both damage and wind data indicates a co-variability of hazard and related damage on decadal timescales.

Description: A GIS-based model to estimate flood consequences and the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in urban areas Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2847-2865, 2014 Author(s): R. Albano, A. Sole, J. Adamowski, and L. Mancusi Efficient decision-making regarding flood risk reduction has become a priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries. Risk analysis methods and techniques are a useful tool for evaluating costs and benefits of possible interventions. Within this context, a methodology to estimate flood consequences was developed in this paper that is based on GIS, and integrated with a model that estimates the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in an urban area. The majority of the currently available approaches do not properly analyse road network connections and dependencies within systems, and as such a loss of roads could cause significant damages and problems to emergency services in cases of flooding. The proposed model is unique in that it provides a maximum-impact estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk), in the emergency phase. The results of a case study in the Puglia region in southern Italy are described to illustrate the practical applications of this newly proposed approach. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for defining a hierarchy between different infrastructure in the urban area through the identification of particular components whose operation and efficiency are critical for emergency management. This information can be used by decision-makers to prioritize risk reduction interventions in flood emergencies in urban areas, given limited financial resources.

Description: Wind waves in the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2883-2897, 2014 Author(s): V. S. Arkhipkin, F. N. Gippius, K. P. Koltermann, and G. V. Surkova In this study we describe the wind wave fields in the Black Sea. The general aims of the work were the estimation of statistical wave parameters and the assessment of interannual and seasonal wave parameter variability. The domain of this study was the entire Black Sea. Wave parameters were calculated by means of the SWAN wave model on a 5 × 5 km rectangular grid. Initial conditions (wind speed and direction) for the period between 1949 and 2010 were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. According to our calculations the average significant wave height on the Black Sea does not exceed 0.7 m. Areas of most significant heavy sea are the southwestern and the northeastern parts of the sea as expressed in the spatial distribution of significant wave heights, wave lengths and periods. Besides, long-term annual variations of wave parameters were estimated. Thus, linear trends of the annual total duration of storms and of their quantity are nearly stable over the hindcast period. However, an intensification of storm activity is observed in the 1960s–1970s.

Description: Autonomous profiling float observations of the high biomass plume downstream of the Kerguelen plateau in the Southern Ocean Biogeosciences Discussions, 11, 17413-17462, 2014 Author(s): M. Grenier, A. Della Penna, and T. W. Trull Natural iron fertilisation from Southern Ocean islands results in high primary production and phytoplankton biomass accumulations readily visible in satellite ocean colour observations. These images reveal great spatial complexity with highly varying concentrations of chlorophyll, presumably reflecting both variations in iron supply and conditions favouring phytoplankton accumulation. To examine the second aspect, in particular the influences of variations in temperature and stratification, we deployed four autonomous profiling floats in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current near the Kerguelen plateau in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. Each "bio-profiler" measured more than 250 profiles of temperature ( T ), salinity ( S ), dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll fluorescence (Chl a ), and particle backscatter in the top 300 m of the water column, sampling up to 5 profiles per day along meandering trajectories extending up to 1000 km. Comparison of surface Chl a estimates (top 50 m depth; analogous to values from satellite images) with total water column inventories revealed largely linear relationships, suggesting that dilution of chlorophyll by mixed layer depth variations plays only a minor role in the spatial distributions observed by satellite, and correspondingly that these images provide credible information on total and not just surface biomass accumulations. Regions of very high Chl a accumulation (1.5–10 μg L -1 ) were associated predominantly with a narrow T – S class of surface waters, which appears to derive from the northern Kerguelen plateau. In contrast, waters with only moderate Chl a enrichments (0.5–1.5 μg L -1 ) displayed no clear correlation with water properties, including no dependence on mixed layer depth, suggesting a diversity of sources of iron and/or its efficient dispersion across filaments of the plume. The lack of dependence on mixed layer depth also indicates a limited influence on production by light limitation. One float became trapped in a cyclonic eddy, allowing temporal evaluation of the water column in early autumn. During this period, decreasing surface Chl a inventories corresponded with decreases in oxygen inventories on sub-mixed layer density surfaces, consistent with significant export of organic matter and its respiration and storage as dissolved inorganic carbon in the ocean interior. These results are encouraging for the expanded use of autonomous observing platforms to study biogeochemical, carbon cycle, and ecological problems, although the complex blend of Lagrangian and Eulerian sampling achieved by the floats suggests that arrays rather than single floats will often be required.

Description: Factors affecting flood insurance purchase in residential properties in Johor, Malaysia Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3297-3310, 2014 Author(s): U. G. Aliagha, T. E. Jin, W. W. Choong, M. Nadzri Jaafar, and H. M. Ali High-impact floods have become a virtually annual experience in Malaysia, yet flood insurance has remained a grossly neglected part of comprehensive integrated flood risk management. Using discriminant analysis, this study seeks to identify the demand-side variables that best predict flood insurance purchase and risk aversion between two groups of residential homeowners in three districts of Johor State, Malaysia: those who purchased flood insurance and those who did not. Our results revealed an overall 34% purchase rate, with Kota Tinggi district having the highest (44%) and thus the highest degree of flood risk aversion. The Wilks' lambda F test for equality of group means, standardised discriminant function coefficients, structure correlation, and canonical correlation has clearly shown that there are strong significant attribute differences between the two groups of homeowners, based on the measures of objective flood risk exposure, subjective risk perception, and socio-economic cum demographic variables. However, the measures of subjective risk perception were found to be more predictive of flood insurance purchase and flood risk aversion.

Description: On the use of the post-closure method uncertainty band to evaluate the performance of land surface models against eddy covariance flux data Biogeosciences Discussions, 11, 16911-16951, 2014 Author(s): J. Ingwersen, K. Imukova, P. Högy, and T. Streck The energy balance of eddy covariance (EC) flux data is normally not closed. Therefore, at least if used for modeling, EC flux data are usually post-closed, i.e. the measured turbulent fluxes are adjusted so as to close the energy balance. At the current state of knowledge, however, it is not clear how to partition the missing energy in the right way. Eddy flux data therefore contain some uncertainty due to the unknown nature of the energy balance gap, which should be considered in model evaluation and the interpretation of simulation results. We propose to construct the post-closure method uncertainty band (PUB), which essentially designates the differences between non-adjusted flux data and flux data adjusted with the three post-closure methods (Bowen ratio, latent heat flux (LE) and sensible heat flux ( H ) method). To demonstrate this approach, simulations with the NOAH-MP land surface model were evaluated based on EC measurements conducted at a winter wheat stand in Southwest Germany in 2011, and the performance of the Jarvis and Ball–Berry stomatal resistance scheme was compared. The width of the PUB of the LE was up to 110 W m –2 (21% of net radiation). Our study shows that it is crucial to account for the uncertainty of EC flux data originating from lacking energy balance closure. Working with only a single post-closing method might result in severe misinterpretations in model-data comparisons.

Description: Carbon, oxygen and biological productivity in the Southern Ocean in and out the Kerguelen plume: CARIOCA drifter results Biogeosciences Discussions, 11, 16877-16909, 2014 Author(s): L. Merlivat, J. Boutin, and F. d'Ovidio The Kerguelen Plateau region in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean supports annually a large-scale phytoplankton bloom which is naturally fertilized with iron. As part of the second Kerguelen Ocean and Plateau compared Study expedition (KEOPS2) in austral spring (October–November 2011), one Carioca buoy was deployed east of the Kerguelen plateau. It drifted eastward downstream in the Kerguelen plume. Hourly surface measurements of p CO 2 , O 2 and ancillary observations were collected between 1 November 2011 to 12 February 2012 with the aim of characterizing the spatial and temporal variability of the biological Net Community Production (NCP) downstream the Kerguelen plateau, assess the impact of iron-induced productivity on the biological carbon consumption and consequently on the CO 2 flux exchanged at the air–sea interface. The trajectory of the buoy until mid-December was within the longitude range, 72–83° E, close to the polar front and then in the polar frontal zone, PFZ, until 97° E. From 17 November to 16 December, the buoy drifted within the Kerguelen plume following a filament carrying dissolved iron, DFe, for a total distance of 700 km. In the first part of the trajectory, the ocean surface waters are a sink for CO 2 and a source for CO 2 , with fluxes of respective mean values equal to −8 and +38 mmol CO 2 m −2 d −1 . Eastward, as the buoy escapes the iron enriched filament, the fluxes are in opposite direction, with respective mean values of +5 and −48 mmol O 2 m −2 d −1 . These numbers clearly indicate the strong impact of biological processes on the biogeochemistry in the surface waters within the Kerguelen plume in November-mid-December, while it is undetectable eastward in the PFZ from mid-December to mid-February. While the buoy follows the Fe enriched filament, simultaneous observations of dissolved inorganic carbon, DIC, and dissolved oxygen, O 2 , highlight biological events lasting from 2 to 4 days. Stoichiometric ratios, O 2 /C, between 1.1 and 1.4 are observed indicating new and regenerated production regimes. NCP estimates range from 60 to 140 mmol C m −2 d −1 . Based on the relationship between the time a water parcel has left the plateau and its iron content, we have highlighted that the main control on the value of NCP is the availability of iron in the upper water column, with the largest NCP occurring in waters that have recently left the plateau and presented the highest iron concentrations.

Description: Comparison of UV/Vis and FDOM sensors for in situ monitoring of stream DOC concentrations Biogeosciences Discussions, 11, 16855-16876, 2014 Author(s): G.-Y. Yoo, Y. Jeong, E.-J. Lee, J.-H. Park, and N.-H. Oh Optical measurements using ultra-violet/visible (UV/Vis) spectrophotometric sensors and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) sensors have recently been used as proxies of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations of streams and rivers at high temporal resolution. Despite of the merits of the sensors, temperature changes and particulate matter in water can interfere the sensor readings, over- or under-estimating DOC concentrations. However, little efforts have been made to compare responses of the two types of the sensors in natural conditions. We conducted both laboratory experiments and in situ monitoring with a UV/Vis sensor and a FDOM sensor during the three storm events in the fall of 2012 and the spring of 2013 in a forest stream in Korea in order to compare their performance. Laboratory experiments using the Suwannee River natural organic matter, humic acid, and fulvic acid demonstrated strong linear relationships between both the sensor signals and measured DOC concentrations with R 2 ≥ 0.98. Although temperature compensation might not be needed for the UV/Vis sensor, it was sensitive to relativley small changes in turbidity. In contrast, the FDOM sensor was insenstive to relatively low turbidity while the FDOM sensor outputs decreased significantly as temperature increased, requiring temperature compensated FDOM (e.g. FDOM 20 for 20 °C) for in situ monitoring of DOC. The results suggest that both sensors can be employed as a~proxy for stream DOC concentrations after temperature and turbidity compensation in a forest stream where terrestrially derived humic-like materials are dominant components.

Description: Modeling the impact of riverine DON removal by marine bacterioplankton on primary production in the Arctic Ocean Biogeosciences Discussions, 11, 16953-16992, 2014 Author(s): V. Le Fouest, M. Manizza, B. Tremblay, and M. Babin The planktonic and biogeochemical dynamics of the Arctic shelves exhibit a strong variability in response to Arctic warming. In this study, in order to elucidate on the processes regulating the production of phytoplankton (PP) and bacterioplankton (BP) and their interactions, we employ a biogeochemical model coupled to a pan-Arctic ocean-sea ice model (MITgcm) to explicitly simulate and quantify the contribution of usable dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) drained by the major circum-Arctic rivers on PP and BP in a scenario of melting sea ice (1998–2011). Model simulations suggest that on average between 1998 and 2011, the removal of usable RDON by bacterioplankton is responsible of a ~26% increase of the annual BP for the whole Arctic Ocean. With respect to total PP, the model simulates an increase of ~8% on an annual basis and of ~18% in summer. Recycled ammonium is responsible for the PP increase. The recycling of RDON by bacterioplankton promotes higher BP and PP but there is no significant temporal trend in the BP : PP ratio within the ice-free shelves over the 1998–2011 period. This suggests no significant evolution in the balance between autotrophy and heterotrophy in the last decade with a constant annual flux of RDON into the coastal ocean although changes in RDON supply and further reduction in sea ice cover could potentially alter this delicate balance.

Description: Kinematics of a mass movement constrained by sparse and inhomogeneous data Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1609-1618, 2011 Author(s): M. Karbon, E. Brückl, E. Hegedüs, and A. Preh On 12 February 2008, a landslide occurred along a 50 m high bank of the Danube river near Dunaszekcsö, Hungary. The initial state is only incompletely documented and the geodetic data acquired after the mass movement are sparse. A generalized 3-D topographic model of the landslide and its surrounding area was assembled and a representative longitudinal profile extracted. The reconstruction of the original surface is based on an orthophoto as well as on morphological considerations. Recorded observations include the locations of the outcrops of basal sliding surfaces, displacements at the main scarp and in the lower part of the slide, and a value to describe the total mass transport. Such sparse and inhomogeneous data were insufficient to derive a comprehensive documentation of the landslide or obtain adequate constraints for an accurate numerical analysis. Therefore, slider block models were fitted to the field data, which have only a small number of free parameters. A general view on the morphology of the mass movement justifies its classification as a rotational slide. A double slider block model fits all observational parameters within their error margin and supplies valuable information on the geometry of the slide. Estimates of the residual friction angles were derived and the question of reactivation was addressed. Finite Difference (FD) modelling and the application of conventional stability analysis support the geometry of the slider blocks and the computed average residual friction angles. Generally, the results are assumed to represent preliminary information, which could only be attained by the combination of the thinly distributed geodetic data with qualitative morphological observations and the implementation of a model. This type of information can be gained quickly and may be valuable for preliminary hazard mitigation measures or the planning of a comprehensive exploration and monitoring program.

Description: Looking for evidence of climate change impacts in the eastern Irish Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1641-1656, 2011 Author(s): L. S. Esteves, J. J. Williams, and J. M. Brown Although storminess is often cited as a driver of long-term coastal erosion, a lack of suitable datasets has only allowed objective assessment of this claim in a handful of case studies. This reduces our ability to understand and predict how the coastline may respond to an increase in "storminess" as suggested by global and regional climate models. With focus on 16 km of the Sefton coastline bordering the eastern Irish Sea (UK), this paper analyses available measured datasets of water level, surge level, wave height, wind speed and barometric pressure with the objective of finding trends in metocean climate that are consistent with predictions. The paper then examines rates of change in shoreline position over the period 1894 to 2005 with the aim of establishing relationships with climatic variability using a range of measured and modelled metocean parameters (with time spans varying from two to eight decades). With the exception of the mean monthly wind speed, available metocean data do not indicate any statistically significant changes outside seasonal and decadal cycles. No clear relationship was found between changes in metocean conditions and rates of shoreline change along the Sefton coast. High interannual variability and the lack of long-term measurements make unambiguous correlations between climate change and shoreline evolution problematic. However, comparison between the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAOw) and coastline changes suggest increased erosion at times of decreasing NAOw values and reduced erosion at times of increasing NAOw values. Erosion tends to be more pronounced when decreasing NAOw values lead to a strong negative NAO phase. At present, anthropogenic changes in the local sediment budget and the short-term impact of extreme events are still the largest threat likely to affect coastal flooding and erosion risk in the short- and medium-term. Nevertheless, the potential impacts of climate change in the long-term should not be ignored.

Description: Comparing historical-hydrogeomorphological reconstitution and hydrological-hydraulic modelling in the estimation of flood-prone areas – a case study in Central Portugal Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1669-1681, 2011 Author(s): P. P. Santos, A. O. Tavares, and A. I. A. S. S. Andrade The Arunca River basin in Central Portugal has a historical record of hazardous events related to floods, causing widespread disturbance. This article describes the application of two approaches based on well-known methods for the estimation of flood-prone areas: (i) historical-hydrogeomorphological reconstitution, applied to the entire Arunca River basin, and (ii) hydrological-hydraulic modelling, applied to four sections selected from different (upper, middle and lower) sectors of the basin and including urban and rural areas along the Arunca River. The mapping of the flood-prone areas obtained by these two methods was compared in order to identify the main differences and similarities. Human interventions (river channel and floodplain morphological changes) were found to be the main factor explaining the differences and similarities between the results obtained by both methods. The application of hydrological-hydraulic modelling proved important in reinforcing the results of the historical-hydrogeomorphological method; it also helped in complementing the results produced by the latter method in urban areas and in areas with insufficient historical records. The application of the historical-hydrogeomorphological method, in turn, allowed for the size of the flood-prone areas to be determined where the primary data (e.g. geometry, roughness and flow) was not accurate enough for hydrological-hydraulic modelling. The methodological approach adopted demonstrates the strong complementary relationship between the different existing methods for estimating flood-prone areas, and may be reproduced for other drainage basins.

Description: An algorithm for detecting Trichodesmium surface blooms in the South Western Tropical Pacific Biogeosciences Discussions, 8, 5653-5689, 2011 Author(s): C. Dupouy, D. Benielli-Gary, J. Neveux, Y. Dandonneau, and T. K. Westberry Trichodesmium , a major colonial cyanobacterial nitrogen fixer, forms large blooms in NO 3 -depleted tropical oceans and enhances CO 2 sequestration by the ocean due to its ability to fix dissolved dinitrogen. Thus, its importance in C and N cycles requires better estimates of its distribution at basin to global scales. However, existing algorithms to detect them from satellite have not yet been successful in the South Western Tropical Pacific (SWTP). Here, a novel approach based on radiance anomaly spectra (RAS) observed in SeaWiFS imagery is used to detect Trichodesmium during the austral summertime in the SWTP. Selected pixels are characterized by a restricted range of parameters quantifying RAS spectra quantitative parameters (e.g. slope, intercept, curvature). The fraction of valid pixels identified as Trichodesmium surface blooms in the region 5° S–25° S 160° E–190° E is low (between 0.01 and 0.2 %), but is about 100 times higher than suggested by previous algorithms. This represents a total surface area which varies from 1500 to 20 000 km 2 . A monthly distribution of Trichodesmium surface accumulations in the SWTP is presented which demonstrates that the number of selected pixels peaks in November–February each year, consistent with field observations. This approach was validated with in situ observations of Trichodesmium surface accumulations for the period 1998–2010.

Description: The contribution of engineering surveys by means of GPS to the determination of crustal movements in Istanbul Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1705-1713, 2011 Author(s): M. Özyaşar and M. T. Özlüdemir Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are space based positioning techniques and widely used in geodetic applications. Geodetic networking accomplished by engineering surveys constitutes one of these tasks. Geodetic networks are used as the base of all kinds of geodetic implementations, Co from the cadastral plans to the relevant surveying processes during the realization of engineering applications. Geodetic networks consist of control points positioned in a defined reference frame. In fact, such positional information could be useful for other studies as well. One of such fields is geodynamic studies that use the changes of positions of control stations within a network in a certain time period to understand the characteristics of tectonic movements. In Turkey, which is located in tectonically active zones and struck by major earthquakes quite frequently, the positional information obtained in engineering surveys could be very useful for earthquake related studies. For this purpose, a GPS (Global Positioning System) network of 650 stations distributed over Istanbul (Istanbul GPS Triangulation Network; abbreviated IGNA) covering the northern part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) was established in 1997 and measured in 1999. From 1998 to 2004, the IGNA network was extended to 1888 stations covering an area of about 6000 km 2 , the whole administration area of Istanbul. All 1888 stations within the IGNA network were remeasured in 2005. In these two campaigns there existed 452 common points, and between these two campaigns two major earthquakes took place, on 17 August and 12 November 1999 with a Richter scale magnitude of 7.4 and 7.2, respectively. Several studies conducted for estimating the horizontal and vertical displacements as a result of these earthquakes on NAFZ are discussed in this paper. In geodynamic projects carried out before the earthquakes in 1999, an annual average velocity of 2–2.5 cm for the stations along the NAFZ were estimated. Studies carried out using GPS observations in the same area after these earthquakes indicated that point displacements vary depending on their distance to the epicentres of the earthquakes. But the directions of point displacements are similar. The results obtained through the analysis of the IGNA network also show that there is a common trend in the directions of point displacements in the study area. In this paper, the past studies about the tectonics of Marmara region are summarised and the results of the displacement analysis on the IGNA network are discussed.

Description: Rainfall patterns after fire differentially affect the recruitment of three Mediterranean shrubs Biogeosciences Discussions, 8, 5761-5786, 2011 Author(s): J. M. Moreno, E. Zuazua, B. Pérez, B. Luna, A. Velasco, and V. Resco de Dios In fire-prone environments, the "event-dependent hypothesis" states that plant population changes are driven by the unique set of conditions of a fire (e.g., fire season, climate). Climate variability, in particular changes in rainfall patterns, can be most important for seeder species, since they must regenerate after fire from seeds, and for Mediterranean shrublands, given the high yearly variability of rainfall in these ecosystems. Yet, the role of rainfall variability and its interaction with fire characteristics (e.g., fire season) on plant populations has received little attention. Here we investigated the changes in seedling emergence and recruitment of three seeder species ( Cistus ladanifer , Erica umbellata and Rosmarinus officinalis ) after fires lit during three different years and at two times during the fire season (early and late in the fire season) to account for potential changes in the soil seed-bank during the year. Three plots were burned at each season, for a total of 18 plots burned during the three years. After fire, emerged seedlings were tallied, tagged and monitored during three years (two the last burning year). Rainfall during the study period was rather variable, and in some years was well below average. Seedling emergence after fire varied by a factor of 3 to 10, depending on the species and on the burning year. The bulk of seedling emergence occurred in the first year after fire, and seedling recruitment at the end of the study period was tightly correlated with this early emergence. Seedling emergence in E umbellata and R officinalis , but not in C ladanifer , were correlated with precipitation in the fall and winter immediately after the fire, being E umbellata most sensitive to low rainfall. Fire season was generally not an important factor in controlling emergence and recruitment. We discuss how projected changes in rainfall patterns with global warming can alter the balance of species in this shrubland, and can drive some species to near local extinction.

Description: Quantitative estimation of landslide risk from rapid debris slides on natural slopes in the Nilgiri hills, India Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1723-1743, 2011 Author(s): P. Jaiswal, C. J. van Westen, and V. Jetten A quantitative procedure for estimating landslide risk to life and property is presented and applied in a mountainous area in the Nilgiri hills of southern India. Risk is estimated for elements at risk located in both initiation zones and run-out paths of potential landslides. Loss of life is expressed as individual risk and as societal risk using F-N curves, whereas the direct loss of properties is expressed in monetary terms. An inventory of 1084 landslides was prepared from historical records available for the period between 1987 and 2009. A substantially complete inventory was obtained for landslides on cut slopes (1042 landslides), while for natural slopes information on only 42 landslides was available. Most landslides were shallow translational debris slides and debris flowslides triggered by rainfall. On natural slopes most landslides occurred as first-time failures. For landslide hazard assessment the following information was derived: (1) landslides on natural slopes grouped into three landslide magnitude classes, based on landslide volumes, (2) the number of future landslides on natural slopes, obtained by establishing a relationship between the number of landslides on natural slopes and cut slopes for different return periods using a Gumbel distribution model, (3) landslide susceptible zones, obtained using a logistic regression model, and (4) distribution of landslides in the susceptible zones, obtained from the model fitting performance (success rate curve). The run-out distance of landslides was assessed empirically using landslide volumes, and the vulnerability of elements at risk was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific risk was estimated individually for tea/coffee and horticulture plantations, transport infrastructures, buildings, and people both in initiation and run-out areas. Risks were calculated by considering the minimum, average, and maximum landslide volumes in each magnitude class and the corresponding minimum, average, and maximum run-out distances and vulnerability values, thus obtaining a range of risk values per return period. The results indicate that the total annual minimum, average, and maximum losses are about US$ 44 000, US$ 136 000 and US$ 268 000, respectively. The maximum risk to population varies from 2.1 × 10 −1 for one or more lives lost to 6.0 × 10 −2 yr −1 for 100 or more lives lost. The obtained results will provide a basis for planning risk reduction strategies in the Nilgiri area.

Description: Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1795-1805, 2011 Author(s): R. Moratiel, R. L. Snyder, J. M. Durán, and A. M. Tarquis The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows possible future situations 50 yr from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ET o ). The maximum temperature ( T max ), minimum temperature ( T min ), dew point ( T d ), wind speed ( U ) and net radiation ( R n ) trends during the 1980–2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman-Montheith equation to estimate ET o . Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO 2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, taking the concentration of CO 2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly) into consideration. The scenarios studied showed the changes in ET o as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables T max , T min , T d , U and R n with current and future CO 2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ET o showed increases between 118 mm (11 %) and 55 mm (5 %) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin's crops.

Description: Phosphorus transformations as a function of pedogenesis: a synthesis of soil phosphorus data using Hedley fractionation method Biogeosciences Discussions, 8, 5907-5934, 2011 Author(s): X. Yang and W. M. Post In spite of the importance of phosphorus (P) as a limiting nutrient in terrestrial ecosystems, our understanding of terrestrial P dynamics and our ability to model P cycling are hampered by the lack of consistent measurements of soil P. The Hedley fractionation method provides a comprehensive assessment of soil P and has been widely used in recent decades. Here we expand an earlier study that summarized Hedley P data from the literature to create a larger Hedley P database and further investigate the relationships between distributions of different forms of P and the stages of soil development. Our expanded Hedley P database generally supports what the Walker and Syers (1976) conceptual model predicts: the gradual decrease and eventual depletion of primary mineral P (mainly apatite P); the continual increase and eventual dominance of occluded P; and the overall decrease of total P during soil development. However the analysis disagrees with Walker and Syers (1976) in that we found labile inorganic P(Pi) and secondary Pi (non-occluded P in Walker and Syers' model) to be a significant fraction of total P throughout all soil orders with different weathering stages. By analyzing the Hedley-labile P and vegetation P demand, we found that the amount of labile P is much greater than vegetation demand, even in highly weathered soils commonly considered P limited. We conclude that measured Hedley-labile P should not be defined as plant available P since most of this labile P likely ends up as immobilized by microbes. Our analysis of the database also shows that carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in soil organic matter are closely linked in all soil orders, but P is decoupled from C and N in highly weathered soils with larger variations of nitrogen:organic P (N:Po) ratio and higher mean values of N:Po ratio, compared to slightly and intermediately weathered soils.

Description: Possible interrelation between the lead time of precursory seismic electric signals (SES) and geodynamics in Aegean Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1599-1603, 2011 Author(s): E. Dologlou The seismicity of the last 15 years in the Aegean Sea revealed that earthquakes ( M w 〉 5) with epicentres falling within the Sporades basin and the confined area north of Samos island were preceded by electric seismic signals (SES) with a remarkably long lead time. A possible explanation of this behaviour by means of specific tectonics and geodynamics which characterise these two regions, such as a significant small crustal thickness and a high heat flow rate, has been attempted. New data seem to strengthen the above hypothesis.

Description: Greenhouse gas flux measurements in a forestry-drained peatland indicate a large carbon sink Biogeosciences Discussions, 8, 5787-5825, 2011 Author(s): A. Lohila, K. Minkkinen, M. Aurela, J.-P. Tuovinen, T. Penttilä, and T. Laurila Drainage for forestry purposes changes the conditions in the peat and leads to increased growth of shrubs and trees. Concurrently, the production and uptake of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) are likely to change: due to the accelerated decomposition of oxic peat, drained peatlands are generally considered to loose peat carbon (C). We measured CO 2 exchange with the eddy covariance (EC) method above a drained nutrient-poor peatland forest in Southern Finland for 16 months in 2004–2005. The site, classified as a dwarf-shrub pine bog, had been ditched about 35 years earlier. CH 4 and N 2 O fluxes were measured at 2–5 week intervals with the chamber technique. Drainage had resulted in a relatively little change in the water table level, being on average 40 cm below the ground in 2005. The annual net ecosystem exchange was −870 g CO 2 m −2 yr −1 in the calendar year 2005, varying from −810 to −900 g CO 2 m −2 yr −1 during the 16 month period under investigation. The site was a small sink of CH 4 (−0.12 g CH 4 m −2 yr −1 ) and a small source of N 2 O (0.10 g N 2 O m −2 yr −1 ). Photosynthesis was detected throughout the year when the air temperature exceeded −3 °C. As the annual accumulation of C in the above and below ground tree biomass (550 g CO 2 m −2 ) was significantly less than the net exchange of CO 2 , about 300 g CO 2 m −2 yr −1 (~80 g C m −2 ) was likely to have accumulated as organic matter into the peat soil. This is a higher average accumulation rate than previously reported for natural northern peatlands, and the first time C accumulation has been shown, by EC measurements, to occur in a drained peatland. Our results suggest that forestry-drainage may significantly increase the CO 2 uptake rate of nutrient-poor peatland ecosystems.

Description: Effect of mosaic representation of vegetation in land surface schemes on simulated energy and carbon balances Biogeosciences Discussions, 8, 5849-5879, 2011 Author(s): R. Li and V. K. Arora Energy and carbon balance implications of representing vegetation using a composite or mosaic approach in a land surface scheme are investigated. In the composite approach the attributes of different plant functional types (PFTs) present in a grid cell are aggregated in some fashion for energy and water balance calculations. The resulting physical environmental conditions (including net radiation, soil moisture and soil temperature) are common to all PFTs and affect their ecosystem processes. In the mosaic approach energy and water balance calculations are performed separately for each PFT tile using its own vegetation attributes, so each PFT "sees" different physical environmental conditions and its carbon balance evolves somewhat differently from that in the composite approach. Simulations are performed at selected boreal, temperate and tropical locations to illustrate the differences caused by using the composite versus the mosaic approaches of representing vegetation. Differences in grid averaged primary energy fluxes are generally less than 5 % between the two approaches. Grid-averaged carbon fluxes and pool sizes can, however, differ by as much as 46 %. Simulation results suggest that differences in carbon balance between the two approaches arise primarily through differences in net radiation which directly affects net primary productivity, and thus leaf area index and vegetation biomass.

Description: Daytime variations of foE connected to earthquakes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1807-1812, 2011 Author(s): E. V. Liperovskaya, V. V. Bogdanov, P.-F. Biagi, C.-V. Meister, and V. A. Liperovsky In the present work it is shown that, in accordance with the observations of the vertical sounding station "Tashkent", the critical foE-frequency of the daytime E-layer increases about one day before winter-earthquakes with magnitudes M 〉 5 and depths of the epicentre of h 〈 60 km, which appeared at distances of R 〈 2000 km from the station. The reliability of the result is larger than 99 %. The phenomenon is not observed for summer-earthquakes. It seems to be determined by the atmospheric wind system. Further, the variations of the foE-frequency are compared with possible simultaneous variations of the critical frequency foF2 of the F2-layer. First results show that only very large changes of the ionisation density in the E-layer influence the ionisation density in the F-region. Therefore, no synchronous growth of the foE- and foF2-frequencies 1–2 days before seismic shocks could be observed.

Description: Contributions of agricultural plants and soils to N 2 O emission in a farmland Biogeosciences Discussions, 8, 5505-5535, 2011 Author(s): J. Li, X. Lee, Q. Yu, X. Tong, Z. Qin, and B. Macdonald The goal of this study was to quantify the roles of plants and soil in the N 2 O budget of a cropland in North China. Plant and soil N 2 O fluxes were measured with transparent and dark plant chambers and soil chambers, respectively, in three adjacent fields of fertilized cotton, fertilized maize and unfertilized soybean. During the observation period, the soil flux was 448 ± 89, 230 ± 74 and 90 ± 14 μg N 2 O m −2 h −1 in cotton, maize and soybean fields, respectively. The plant flux was 54 ± 43 and 16 ± 41 μg N 2 O m −2 h −1 , about 10 % and 26 % to the total ecosystem flux, for the cotton and the soybean field, respectively. Ignoring the contribution of plants would cause an obvious underestimation on the ecosystem N 2 O flux. The influence of sunlight on plant N 2 O flux was insignificant. However, in the cotton field, the responses of the plant N 2 O flux to air temperature and soil ammonium content were significant under sunlight but insignificant under darkness, suggesting that stomatal activity might influence the release process. In the cotton field, temperature sensitivity of plant N 2 O emission was 1.13, much lower than the value of soil flux (5.74). No relationship was found between plant N 2 O flux and soil nitrate content. It was implied that nitrate reduction in plants might not be the main source of plant N 2 O emission under field conditions. The seasonal patterns of the soil and plant N 2 O emissions were similarly affected by fertilization, indicating that plants might serve as a passive conduit transporting N 2 O produced in the soil.

Description: What controls biological productivity in coastal upwelling systems? Insights from a comparative modeling study Biogeosciences Discussions, 8, 5617-5652, 2011 Author(s): Z. Lachkar and N. Gruber The magnitude of the biological productivity in Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) is traditionally viewed as directly reflecting the upwelling intensity. Yet, different EBUS show different sensitivities of productivity to upwelling-favorable winds (Carr and Kearns, 2003). Here, using a comparative modeling study of the California Current System (California CS) and Canary Current System (Canary CS), we show how physical and environmental factors, such as light, temperature and cross-shore circulation modulate the response of biological productivity to upwelling strength. To this end, we made a series of eddy-resolving simulations of the California CS and Canary CS using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), coupled to a nitrogen based Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) ecosystem model. We find the nutrient content of the euphotic zone to be 20 % smaller in the Canary CS relative to the California CS. Yet, the biological productivity is 50 % smaller in the latter. This is due to: (1) a faster nutrient-replete growth in the Canary CS relative to the California CS, related to a more favorable light and temperature conditions in the Canary CS, and (2) the longer nearshore water residence times in the Canary CS which lead to larger buildup of biomass in the upwelling zone, thereby enhancing the productivity. The longer residence times in the Canary CS appear to be associated with the wider continental shelves and the lower eddy activity characterizing this upwelling system. This results in a weaker offshore export of nutrients and organic matter, thereby increasing local nutrient recycling and enhancing the coupling between new and export production in the Northwest African system. Our results suggest that climate change induced perturbations such as upwelling favorable wind intensification might lead to contrasting biological responses in the California CS and the Canary CS, with major implications for the biogeochemical cycles and fisheries in these two ecosystems.

Description: Shallow circulation groundwater – the main type of water containing hazardous radon concentration Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1695-1703, 2011 Author(s): T. A. Przylibski The main factors affecting the value of 222 Rn activity concentration in groundwater are the emanation coefficient of reservoir rocks ( K em ), the content of parent 226 Ra in these rocks ( q ), changes in the volume and flow velocity as well as the mixing of various groundwater components in the circulation system. The highest values of 222 Rn activity concentration are recorded in groundwaters flowing towards an intake through strongly cracked reservoir rocks undergoing weathering processes. Because of these facts, waters with hazardous radon concentration levels, i.e. containing more than 100 Bq dm −3 222 Rn, could be characterised in the way that follows. They are classified as radon waters, high-radon waters and extreme-radon waters. They belong to shallow circulation systems (at less than a few dozen metres below ground level) and are contemporary infiltration waters, i.e. their underground flow time ranges from several fortnights to a few decades. Because of this, these are usually poorly mineralised waters (often below 0.2–0.5 g dm −3 ). Their resources are renewable, but also vulnerable to contamination. Waters of this type are usually drawn from private intakes, supplying water to one or at most a few households. Due to an increased risk of developing lung tumours, radon should be removed from such waters when still in the intake. To achieve this aim, appropriate legislation should be introduced in many countries.

Description: Precipitation change in Southern Italy linked to global scale oscillation indexes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1683-1694, 2011 Author(s): T. Caloiero, R. Coscarelli, E. Ferrari, and M. Mancini This study investigates precipitation variability in five regions of Southern Italy (Campania, Apulia, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily) using a homogeneous database of about 70 rain gauges with more than 50 years of observation. First, a statistical analysis was performed through the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test in order to determine rainfall the trend on both yearly and seasonal scales. Then, the relationship between the rainfall and some teleconnection pattern indexes was investigated using Spearman's test. The results show remarkable statistically significant negative trends for annual and winter aggregations in most part of the series. Moreover, a strong correlation has emerged between the teleconnection patterns and precipitation in Southern Italy, particularly in winter and on the Tyrrhenian side of the study area.

Description: Reconstruction of Atlantic historical winter coastal storms in the Spanish coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz, 1929–2005 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1715-1722, 2011 Author(s): P. Ribera, D. Gallego, C. Pena-Ortiz, L. Del Rio, T. A. Plomaritis, and J. Benavente This paper presents the reconstruction of a climatological series of winter coastal storms on the northern coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz. This series has been put together using information extracted from regional and local Spanish newspapers. It includes all the storms coming from the Atlantic sector that have been detected during the winter season, from October to March, between 1929 and 2005. In order to validate this historical storm series, it has been compared with storms series identified from quasi-observational data and using different wave heights as thresholds to decide what is to be considered as a coastal storm. Nearly 2.6 reports per year about coastal storms are published in the press which correspond to waves of 3.6 m high or more and to prevailing winds from a direction ranging between SSW and WNW. A long- term positive trend has been detected for the complete storm series. If only the instrumental period is analysed, no significant trend is detected. It is suggested that this difference might be associated with the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the occurrence of storms in this area.