ALBERT

Description: 〈b〉Impacts of Horizontal Resolution and Air–Sea Flux Parameterization on the Intensity and Structure of simulated Typhoon Haiyan (2013)〈/b〉〈br〉 Mien-Tze Kueh, Wen-Mei Chen, Yang-Fan Sheng, Simon C. Lin, Tso-Ren Wu, Eric Yen, Yu-Lin Tsai, and Chuan-Yao Lin〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-333,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In this study, we show that both the model horizontal resolution and air-sea flux parameterization can exert large influence on tropical cyclone intensity simulation but with different impacts on wind structures. We highlight the intensification and contraction of TC eyewall in response to the reduction of grid spacing. We also suggest that a well-developed eyewall is more conducive to the positive effect of flux formulas on TC development.

Description: 〈b〉The Lituya Bay landslide-generated mega-tsunami – numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis〈/b〉〈br〉 José Manuel González-Vida, Jorge Macías, Manuel Jesús Castro, Carlos Sánchez-Linares, Marc de la Asunción, Sergio Ortega-Acosta, and Diego Arcas〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 369-388, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-369-2019, 2019〈br〉 In 1958, at Lituya Bay in Alaska, the largest tsunami wave ever recorded took place. Since then, its numerical simulation has been a challenge and no numerical model has been able to reproduce, in the real geometry of the bay, the more than 200 m wave and the extreme run-up (climbing of the water up on land) of 524 m. The aim of our research, in the framework of a collaboration between the University of Malága (Spain) and NOAA (US), was to fulfil this gap at the same time as verifying our model.

Description: 〈b〉Reanalysis of the 1761 transatlantic tsunami〈/b〉〈br〉 Martin Wronna, Maria Ana Baptista, and Jorge Miguel Miranda〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 337-352, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-337-2019, 2019〈br〉 We investigate the source of the 1761 earthquake and tsunami. The reanalysis of the tsunami travel times agrees with an earlier suggested source area. We check the geodynamic setting of the area and place a fault as an extension to an identified fault and use numerical modelling to distinguish between two candidate sources. One of our theories is compatible with the geodynamic setting and reproduces well the observed tsunami parameters.

Description: 〈b〉Landslides Data Assimilation Using TRIGRS Based on Particle Filtering〈/b〉〈br〉 Changhu Xue, Guigen Nie, Jie Dong, Shuguang Wu, Jing Wang, Xiuzhen Li, and Xiaogang Zhang〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-16,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This paper provides an approach to apply data assimilation method to stability analysis and parameter update and feedback in a landslide. The experiment is implemented by particle filter algorithm. The result FS sequence of TRIGRS output decreases continuously with time and the assimilation can effectively correct the FS of the model output. The RMSD of FS indicates the assimilation results can correct the estimation of TRIGRS output close to actual observations.

Description: 〈b〉The impact of topography on seismic amplification during the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake〈/b〉〈br〉 Saad Khan, Mark van der Meijde, Harald van der Werff, and Muhammad Shafique〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-13,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In 2005, northern Pakistan was hit by a 7.6 magnitude earthquake. The epicenter was located near capital of the Pakistani territory of Azad Kashmir and also affected Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir region. It was believed that the local topography might have significant role in direct and indirect damage in the region. This study shows that the local topography played significant role in the earthquake induced damage in the region.

Description: 〈b〉The impact of topography on seismic amplification during the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake〈/b〉〈br〉 Saad Khan, Mark van der Meijde, Harald van der Werff, and Muhammad Shafique〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-13,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In 2005, northern Pakistan was hit by a 7.6 magnitude earthquake. The epicenter was located near capital of the Pakistani territory of Azad Kashmir and also affected Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir region. It was believed that the local topography might have significant role in direct and indirect damage in the region. This study shows that the local topography played significant role in the earthquake induced damage in the region.

Description: 〈b〉Brief communication: Remotely piloted aircraft systems for rapid emergency response: road exposure to rockfall in Villanova di Accumoli (central Italy)〈/b〉〈br〉 Michele Santangelo, Massimiliano Alvioli, Marco Baldo, Mauro Cardinali, Daniele Giordan, Fausto Guzzetti, Ivan Marchesini, and Paola Reichenbach〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 325-335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-325-2019, 2019〈br〉 The paper discusses the use of rockfall modelling software and photogrammetry applied to images acquired by RPAS to provide support to civil protection agencies during emergency response. The paper focuses on a procedure that was applied to define the residual rockfall risk for a road that was hit by an earthquake-triggered rockfall that occurred during the seismic sequence that hit central Italy on 24 August 2016. Road reopening conditions were decided based on the results of this study.

Description: 〈b〉Brief communication: Remotely piloted aircraft systems for rapid emergency response: road exposure to rockfall in Villanova di Accumoli (central Italy)〈/b〉〈br〉 Michele Santangelo, Massimiliano Alvioli, Marco Baldo, Mauro Cardinali, Daniele Giordan, Fausto Guzzetti, Ivan Marchesini, and Paola Reichenbach〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 325-335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-325-2019, 2019〈br〉 The paper discusses the use of rockfall modelling software and photogrammetry applied to images acquired by RPAS to provide support to civil protection agencies during emergency response. The paper focuses on a procedure that was applied to define the residual rockfall risk for a road that was hit by an earthquake-triggered rockfall that occurred during the seismic sequence that hit central Italy on 24 August 2016. Road reopening conditions were decided based on the results of this study.

Description: 〈b〉Study on Site Amplification Factor Correction for Earthquake Early Warning System〈/b〉〈br〉 Quancai Xie, Qiang Ma, Jingfa Zhang, and Haiying Yu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-400,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This paper make deep evluation of a new mthod for modelling site amplification factor. Though implement this method and make simulation for different cases, we can find that this method show better performance than the previous method and JMA Report. We will better understanding the advantage and disadvantage of this method, although there are some problems needed to consider carefully and to be solved, it shows good potential to be used in the future earthquake early waring system in the world.

Description: 〈b〉Characteristics of a Hailstorm over the Andean La Paz Valley〈/b〉〈br〉 Marcelo Zamuriano, Andrey Martynov, Luca Panziera, and Stefan Brönnimann〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-27,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This work investigates the formation of a hailstorm over the Tropical Bolivian Andes. Using the WRF atmospheric model, we are able to numerically reconstruct it and we assess the main factors (mountains, lake and surface heating) in the storm formation. We propose physical mechanisms that have the potential to improve the forecasting of similar events; which are known to have a big impact over the Bolivian Altiplano, especially the region near Titicaca lake.

Description: 〈b〉Study on Site Amplification Factor Correction for Earthquake Early Warning System〈/b〉〈br〉 Quancai Xie, Qiang Ma, Jingfa Zhang, and Haiying Yu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-400,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This paper make deep evluation of a new mthod for modelling site amplification factor. Though implement this method and make simulation for different cases, we can find that this method show better performance than the previous method and JMA Report. We will better understanding the advantage and disadvantage of this method, although there are some problems needed to consider carefully and to be solved, it shows good potential to be used in the future earthquake early waring system in the world.

Description: 〈b〉Communicating disaster risk? An evaluation of the availability and quality of flood maps〈/b〉〈br〉 Daniel Henstra, Andrea Minano, and Jason Thistlethwaite〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 313-323, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-313-2019, 2019〈br〉 Flood maps can help stakeholders and the public understand their flood risk. We evaluated the quality of publicly accessible flood maps in Canadian communities designated as flood risk areas. We found that most maps (62 %) are low quality (meeting less than half of the criteria) and the highest score was 78 % (seven of nine criteria met). Canada must make a more concerted effort to produce high-quality flood maps to support its international commitment to disaster risk reduction.

Description: 〈b〉Communicating disaster risk? An evaluation of the availability and quality of flood maps〈/b〉〈br〉 Daniel Henstra, Andrea Minano, and Jason Thistlethwaite〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 313-323, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-313-2019, 2019〈br〉 Flood maps can help stakeholders and the public understand their flood risk. We evaluated the quality of publicly accessible flood maps in Canadian communities designated as flood risk areas. We found that most maps (62 %) are low quality (meeting less than half of the criteria) and the highest score was 78 % (seven of nine criteria met). Canada must make a more concerted effort to produce high-quality flood maps to support its international commitment to disaster risk reduction.

Description: 〈b〉Coastal vulnerability assessment: through regional to local downscaling of wave characteristics along the Bay of Lalzit (Albania)〈/b〉〈br〉 Francesco De Leo, Giovanni Besio, Guido Zolezzi, and Marco Bezzi〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 287-298, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-287-2019, 2019〈br〉 This paper reviews the computation of vulnerability levels (VLs) of a coast to inundation with a known model. We refer to the original proposal, detailing the VL computation through an accurate investigation of the local wave climate. We prove that the resulting vulnerability is very sensitive due to the wave features taken into account, which have to be properly assessed. The research is the follow-up of a wider project set along the Bay of Lalzit (Albania).

Description: 〈b〉From examination of natural events a proposal for risk mitigation of lahars by a cellular automata methodology: a case study for Vascún valley, Ecuador〈/b〉〈br〉 Valeria Lupiano, Francesco Chidichimo, Guillermo Machado, Paolo Catelan, Lorena Molina, Salvatore Straface, Gino M. Crisci, and Salvatore Di Gregorio〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-406,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 A method for risk mitigation of secondary lahars, triggered by violent rainfalls, is proposed as alternative to works for their containment or deviation, that could cause future disasters. It is based on the controlled generation of small lahars as a result of collapse of frail dams by backfill, forming momentary ponds as in natural cases. LLUNPIY verifies by simulation path, velocity, thickness, erosion of lahars, that could be produced; a complex case study for Vascún Valley, Ecuador is shown.

Description: 〈b〉A method of deriving operation-specific ski run classes for avalanche risk management decisions in mechanized skiing〈/b〉〈br〉 Reto Sterchi and Pascal Haegeli〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 269-285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-269-2019, 2019〈br〉 We used a revealed preference approach and identified patterns in risk management decisions of mechanized skiing operations. Our results show that terrain choices of experienced guides depend on a much broader set of factors beyond just the avalanche hazard, including skiing experience or accessibility due to weather. The identified high-resolution ski run hierarchies provide new opportunities for examining professional avalanche risk management practices and developing meaningful decision aids.

Description: 〈b〉Response time to flood events using a social vulnerability index (ReTSVI)〈/b〉〈br〉 Alvaro Hofflinger, Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, and Arturo Vallejos-Romero〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 251-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-251-2019, 2019〈br〉 In this work, we propose a novel methodology (ReTSVI) to integrate a social vulnerability index into flood hazard methodologies. ReTSVI combines a series of modules that are pieces of information that interact during an evacuation, such as evacuation rate curves, mobilization, inundation models, and social vulnerability indexes, to create an integrated map of the evacuation rate in a given location.

Description: 〈b〉Comparing the efficiency of hypoxia mitigation strategies in an urban, turbid tidal river, using a coupled hydro sedimentary–biogeochemical model〈/b〉〈br〉 Katixa Lajaunie-Salla, Aldo Sottolichio, Sabine Schmidt, Xavier Litrico, Guillaume Binet, and Gwenaël Abril〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-381,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 〈p〉In view of future coastal hypoxia widespreading, it is essential to define management solutions to preserve a good quality of coastal ecosystems. The lower Tidal Garonne River (TGR, SW France), characterized by the seasonal presence of a turbidity maximum zone and urban water discharges, is subject to episodic hypoxia events during summer low river flow periods. The future climatic conditions (higher temperature; summer droughts) but also an increasing urbanization could enhance hypoxia risks near the city of Bordeaux in the next decades. A 3D model of dissolved oxygen (DO), which couples hydrodynamics, sediment transport and biogeochemical processes, is used to assess the efficiency of different management solutions on TGR oxygenation during summer low-discharge periods. We have runned different scenarios of reduction of urban sewage overflows, displacement of urban discharges downstream from Bordeaux, and/or temporary river flow support during summer period. The model shows that each option limits hypoxia, but with variable efficiency over time and space. Sewage overflow reduction improves DO levels only locally near the city of Bordeaux. Downstream relocation of wastewater discharges allows to reach better oxygenation level in the lower TGR. The support of low river flow limits the upstream TMZ propagation and dilutes TGR waters with well-oxygenated river waters. Scenarios combining wastewater network management and low water replenishment indicate an improvement in water quality over the entire TGR. These modelling outcomes constitute important tools for local water authorities to develop the most appropriate strategies to limit hypoxia in TGR.〈/p〉

Description: 〈b〉The effect of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region on sea level anomalies at the Mediterranean Sea coast〈/b〉〈br〉 Piero Lionello, Dario Conte, and Marco Reale〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-6,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Large positive and negative sea level anomalies at the coast of the Mediterranean Sea are produced by cyclones moving along the Mediterranean storm track, which are mostly generated in the western Mediterranean. The wind around the cyclone center is the main cause of sea level anomalies when a shallow water fetch is present. The inverse barometer effect produces a positive anomaly near the cyclone pressure minimum and a negative anomaly at the opposite side of the Mediterranean Sea.

Description: 〈b〉The effect of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region on sea level anomalies at the Mediterranean Sea coast〈/b〉〈br〉 Piero Lionello, Dario Conte, and Marco Reale〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-6,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Large positive and negative sea level anomalies at the coast of the Mediterranean Sea are produced by cyclones moving along the Mediterranean storm track, which are mostly generated in the western Mediterranean. The wind around the cyclone center is the main cause of sea level anomalies when a shallow water fetch is present. The inverse barometer effect produces a positive anomaly near the cyclone pressure minimum and a negative anomaly at the opposite side of the Mediterranean Sea.

Description: 〈b〉The selection of directional sectors for the analysis of extreme wind speed〈/b〉〈br〉 Pedro Folgueras, Sebastián Solari, and Miguel Ángel Losada〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 221-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-221-2019, 2019〈br〉 Directional effects are often relevant when studying the extreme values of natural agents, such as wind, waves, or currents. The use of a priori defined divisions is a common but subjective way to address the problem and may not fit data well in certain cases. In this work, a rational method is presented for the selection of directional sectors that, taking into account statistical indicators of the data, leads to the definition of independent and statistically homogeneous sectors.

Description: 〈b〉Delimitation of flood areas based on a calibrated a DEM and geoprocessing: case study on the Uruguay River, Itaqui, southern Brazil〈/b〉〈br〉 Paulo Victor N. Araújo, Venerando E. Amaro, Robert M. Silva, and Alexandre B. Lopes〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 237-250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-237-2019, 2019〈br〉 This paper aims to map flood hazard areas under the influence of the Uruguay River, Itaqui (southern Brazil), using a calibrated digital elevation model (DEM), historic river level data and geoprocessing techniques. Assessment of the areas that can potentially be flooded can help to reduce the negative impact of flood events by supporting the process of land-use planning in areas exposed to flood hazards.

Description: 〈b〉On the nexus between landslide susceptibility and transport infrastructure – an agent-based approach〈/b〉〈br〉 Matthias Schlögl, Gerald Richter, Michael Avian, Thomas Thaler, Gerhard Heiss, Gernot Lenz, and Sven Fuchs〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 201-219, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-201-2019, 2019〈br〉 Landslides are destructive events, threatening the integrity of land transport systems. This paper presents how road networks are vulnerable to landslides, with emphasis on the consequences for affected road users. Results show the merits of using agent-based traffic modelling to assess the impacts of road network interruptions on rural communities by providing insights into the characteristics of the population affected and the effects on its daily routine in terms of detour costs.

Description: 〈b〉The selection of directional sectors for the analysis of extreme wind speed〈/b〉〈br〉 Pedro Folgueras, Sebastián Solari, and Miguel Ángel Losada〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 221-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-221-2019, 2019〈br〉 Directional effects are often relevant when studying the extreme values of natural agents, such as wind, waves, or currents. The use of a priori defined divisions is a common but subjective way to address the problem and may not fit data well in certain cases. In this work, a rational method is presented for the selection of directional sectors that, taking into account statistical indicators of the data, leads to the definition of independent and statistically homogeneous sectors.

Description: 〈b〉Delimitation of flood areas based on a calibrated a DEM and geoprocessing: case study on the Uruguay River, Itaqui, southern Brazil〈/b〉〈br〉 Paulo Victor N. Araújo, Venerando E. Amaro, Robert M. Silva, and Alexandre B. Lopes〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 237-250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-237-2019, 2019〈br〉 This paper aims to map flood hazard areas under the influence of the Uruguay River, Itaqui (southern Brazil), using a calibrated digital elevation model (DEM), historic river level data and geoprocessing techniques. Assessment of the areas that can potentially be flooded can help to reduce the negative impact of flood events by supporting the process of land-use planning in areas exposed to flood hazards.

Description: 〈b〉On the nexus between landslide susceptibility and transport infrastructure – an agent-based approach〈/b〉〈br〉 Matthias Schlögl, Gerald Richter, Michael Avian, Thomas Thaler, Gerhard Heiss, Gernot Lenz, and Sven Fuchs〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 201-219, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-201-2019, 2019〈br〉 Landslides are destructive events, threatening the integrity of land transport systems. This paper presents how road networks are vulnerable to landslides, with emphasis on the consequences for affected road users. Results show the merits of using agent-based traffic modelling to assess the impacts of road network interruptions on rural communities by providing insights into the characteristics of the population affected and the effects on its daily routine in terms of detour costs.

Description: 〈b〉Global detection of rainfall triggered landslide clusters〈/b〉〈br〉 Susanne A. Benz and Philipp Blum〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-391,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This study aims to identify clusters of landslide events within a global database that are triggered by the same rainfall event. Results show that 14 % of all studied landslide events are actually part of a landslide cluster consisting of at least 10 events. However, in a more regional analysis this number ranges from 30 % for the West Coast of North America to 3 % in the Himalaya Region. These findings provide an improved understanding for managing landslide mitigations on a larger scale.

Description: 〈b〉Global detection of rainfall triggered landslide clusters〈/b〉〈br〉 Susanne A. Benz and Philipp Blum〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-391,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This study aims to identify clusters of landslide events within a global database that are triggered by the same rainfall event. Results show that 14 % of all studied landslide events are actually part of a landslide cluster consisting of at least 10 events. However, in a more regional analysis this number ranges from 30 % for the West Coast of North America to 3 % in the Himalaya Region. These findings provide an improved understanding for managing landslide mitigations on a larger scale.

Description: 〈b〉Flood risk assessment due to cyclone-induced dike breaching in coastal areas of Bangladesh〈/b〉〈br〉 Md Feroz Islam, Biswa Bhattacharya, and Ioana Popescu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 353-368, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-353-2019, 2019〈br〉 Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, has a dynamic delta with 123 polders. Cyclone-induced storm surges cause severe damage to these polders. This paper presents an investigation of the inundation pattern in a polder due to dike failure caused by storm surges and identifies possible critical locations of dike breaches. Moreover, the risk of flooding was assessed and probabilistic flood maps were generated for the breaching of dikes.

Description: 〈b〉Significance of substrate soil moisture content for rockfall hazard assessment〈/b〉〈br〉 Louise M. Vick, Valerie Zimmer, Christopher White, Chris Massey, and Tim Davies〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-11,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Rockfall boulders can travel long distances down slope and it is important to predict how far to prevent fatalities. A comparison of earthquake data from New Zealand during summer and full-scale rockfall experiments in the same soil during winter shows that during dry seasons boulders travel further downslope because the soil is harder. When using predictive tools, engineers and geologists should take soil conditions (and seasonal variations thereof) in to account.

Description: 〈b〉Flood risk assessment due to cyclone-induced dike breaching in coastal areas of Bangladesh〈/b〉〈br〉 Md Feroz Islam, Biswa Bhattacharya, and Ioana Popescu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 353-368, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-353-2019, 2019〈br〉 Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, has a dynamic delta with 123 polders. Cyclone-induced storm surges cause severe damage to these polders. This paper presents an investigation of the inundation pattern in a polder due to dike failure caused by storm surges and identifies possible critical locations of dike breaches. Moreover, the risk of flooding was assessed and probabilistic flood maps were generated for the breaching of dikes.

Description: 〈b〉Speeding up and boosting tsunami warning in Chile〈/b〉〈br〉 Mauricio Fuentes, Sebastian Arriola, Sebastian Riquelme, and Bertrand Delouis〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-9,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This works provides a simple and fast approach to improve tsunami warning systems in the near field. A color-coded warning map is produced almost instantaneously after the seismic information is received. Time is crucial in the near field case, for instance, the tsunami waves generated in the chilean trench arrives at the coastline around 10–15 minutes. Seismic information takes 3–5 minutes to be ready, we produece a first warning map after 6 minutes of the earthquake origin time.

Description: 〈b〉Speeding up and boosting tsunami warning in Chile〈/b〉〈br〉 Mauricio Fuentes, Sebastian Arriola, Sebastian Riquelme, and Bertrand Delouis〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-9,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This works provides a simple and fast approach to improve tsunami warning systems in the near field. A color-coded warning map is produced almost instantaneously after the seismic information is received. Time is crucial in the near field case, for instance, the tsunami waves generated in the chilean trench arrives at the coastline around 10–15 minutes. Seismic information takes 3–5 minutes to be ready, we produece a first warning map after 6 minutes of the earthquake origin time.

Description: 〈b〉Reanalysis of the 1761 transatlantic tsunami〈/b〉〈br〉 Martin Wronna, Maria Ana Baptista, and Jorge Miguel Miranda〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 337-352, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-337-2019, 2019〈br〉 We investigate the source of the 1761 earthquake and tsunami. The reanalysis of the tsunami travel times agrees with an earlier suggested source area. We check the geodynamic setting of the area and place a fault as an extension to an identified fault and use numerical modelling to distinguish between two candidate sources. One of our theories is compatible with the geodynamic setting and reproduces well the observed tsunami parameters.

Description: 〈b〉Landslides Data Assimilation Using TRIGRS Based on Particle Filtering〈/b〉〈br〉 Changhu Xue, Guigen Nie, Jie Dong, Shuguang Wu, Jing Wang, Xiuzhen Li, and Xiaogang Zhang〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-16,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This paper provides an approach to apply data assimilation method to stability analysis and parameter update and feedback in a landslide. The experiment is implemented by particle filter algorithm. The result FS sequence of TRIGRS output decreases continuously with time and the assimilation can effectively correct the FS of the model output. The RMSD of FS indicates the assimilation results can correct the estimation of TRIGRS output close to actual observations.

Description: 〈b〉Annual Characterization of Regional Hydrological Drought using Auxiliary Information under Global Warming Scenario〈/b〉〈br〉 Zulfiqar Ali, Ijaz Hussain, and Muhammad Faisal〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-373,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Climate change and global warming scenario increase the odds of worsening drought. Therefore, precise characterization and regional monitoring of drought are the major challenge. In this paper, we provide a new way to formulate and improve temporal data of precipitation for the Standardized Drought Index (SDI) type tools. Results show that improved estimates are good candidates for modelling and monitoring hydrological drought with more precision.

Description: 〈b〉California earthquake insurance unpopularity: the issue is the price, not the risk perception〈/b〉〈br〉 Adrien Pothon, Philippe Gueguen, Sylvain Buisine, and Pierre-Yves Bard〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-29,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This paper investigates why earthquake insurance in California is so unpopular despite a significant risk. For that, homeowners’ behavior has been investigated based on the evolution of the earthquake insurance industry in California since its premises. This study shows that most of homeowners disregard earthquake insurance because the premium amount is too high and not because they underestimate the risk. We conclude that new insurance solutions must be designed to fill this protection gap.

Description: 〈b〉Multicriterion assessment framework of flood events simulated with the vertically mixed runoff model in semiarid catchments in the middle Yellow River〈/b〉〈br〉 Dayang Li, Zhongmin Liang, Yan Zhou, Binquan Li, and Yupeng Fu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-402,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Flood forecasting and simulation in semiarid regions are always poor, and a single criterion assessment provides limited information for decision making. Here, we propose a multicriterion assessment framework combining the absolute relative error, the flow partitioning and the confidence interval to assess the most striking feature of an event-based flood––the peak flow. Our results show that the accepted rates of flood events improve a lot under the multicriterion assessment framework.

Description: 〈b〉Simultaneous state-parameter estimation of rainfall-induced landslide displacement using data assimilation〈/b〉〈br〉 Jing Wang, Guigen Nie, Shengjun Gao, and Changhu Xue〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-24,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 It is necessary to do some prevention study of landslide hazard like the early warning and deformation prediction. This research proposes a new strategy to predict displacement of the landslide. Results confirm the accuracy and effectiveness of this method in displacement prediction, which can provide assistance in early risk assessment and landslide forecasting.

Description: 〈b〉Assessing the tsunami mitigation effectiveness of the planned Banda Aceh Outer Ring Road (BORR), Indonesia〈/b〉〈br〉 Syamsidik, Tursina, Anawat Suppasri, Musa Al'ala, Mumtaz Luthfi, and Louise K. Comfort〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 299-312, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-299-2019, 2019〈br〉 This research aimed to assess the tsunami flow velocity and height reduction produced by a planned elevated road parallel to the coast of Banda Aceh called the Banda Aceh Outer Ring Road (BORR). The Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) was used to simulate eight scenarios of the tsunami. One of them was based on the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Two magnitudes of earthquake were used, that is, 8.5 and 9.15 〈i〉M〈/i〉〈sub〉w〈/sub〉. The elevated road can potentially mitigate the impacts of future tsunamis.

Description: 〈b〉Assessing the tsunami mitigation effectiveness of the planned Banda Aceh Outer Ring Road (BORR), Indonesia〈/b〉〈br〉 Syamsidik, Tursina, Anawat Suppasri, Musa Al'ala, Mumtaz Luthfi, and Louise K. Comfort〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 299-312, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-299-2019, 2019〈br〉 This research aimed to assess the tsunami flow velocity and height reduction produced by a planned elevated road parallel to the coast of Banda Aceh called the Banda Aceh Outer Ring Road (BORR). The Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) was used to simulate eight scenarios of the tsunami. One of them was based on the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Two magnitudes of earthquake were used, that is, 8.5 and 9.15 〈i〉M〈/i〉〈sub〉w〈/sub〉. The elevated road can potentially mitigate the impacts of future tsunamis.

Description: 〈b〉Coastal vulnerability assessment: through regional to local downscaling of wave characteristics along the Bay of Lalzit (Albania)〈/b〉〈br〉 Francesco De Leo, Giovanni Besio, Guido Zolezzi, and Marco Bezzi〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 287-298, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-287-2019, 2019〈br〉 This paper reviews the computation of vulnerability levels (VLs) of a coast to inundation with a known model. We refer to the original proposal, detailing the VL computation through an accurate investigation of the local wave climate. We prove that the resulting vulnerability is very sensitive due to the wave features taken into account, which have to be properly assessed. The research is the follow-up of a wider project set along the Bay of Lalzit (Albania).

Description: 〈b〉The Lituya Bay landslide-generated mega-tsunami – numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis〈/b〉〈br〉 José Manuel González-Vida, Jorge Macías, Manuel Jesús Castro, Carlos Sánchez-Linares, Marc de la Asunción, Sergio Ortega-Acosta, and Diego Arcas〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 369-388, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-369-2019, 2019〈br〉 In 1958, at Lituya Bay in Alaska, the largest tsunami wave ever recorded took place. Since then, its numerical simulation has been a challenge and no numerical model has been able to reproduce, in the real geometry of the bay, the more than 200 m wave and the extreme run-up (climbing of the water up on land) of 524 m. The aim of our research, in the framework of a collaboration between the University of Malága (Spain) and NOAA (US), was to fulfil this gap at the same time as verifying our model.

Description: 〈b〉Significance of substrate soil moisture content for rockfall hazard assessment〈/b〉〈br〉 Louise M. Vick, Valerie Zimmer, Christopher White, Chris Massey, and Tim Davies〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-11,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Rockfall boulders can travel long distances down slope and it is important to predict how far to prevent fatalities. A comparison of earthquake data from New Zealand during summer and full-scale rockfall experiments in the same soil during winter shows that during dry seasons boulders travel further downslope because the soil is harder. When using predictive tools, engineers and geologists should take soil conditions (and seasonal variations thereof) in to account.

Description: 〈b〉Annual Characterization of Regional Hydrological Drought using Auxiliary Information under Global Warming Scenario〈/b〉〈br〉 Zulfiqar Ali, Ijaz Hussain, and Muhammad Faisal〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-373,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Climate change and global warming scenario increase the odds of worsening drought. Therefore, precise characterization and regional monitoring of drought are the major challenge. In this paper, we provide a new way to formulate and improve temporal data of precipitation for the Standardized Drought Index (SDI) type tools. Results show that improved estimates are good candidates for modelling and monitoring hydrological drought with more precision.

Description: 〈b〉California earthquake insurance unpopularity: the issue is the price, not the risk perception〈/b〉〈br〉 Adrien Pothon, Philippe Gueguen, Sylvain Buisine, and Pierre-Yves Bard〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-29,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This paper investigates why earthquake insurance in California is so unpopular despite a significant risk. For that, homeowners’ behavior has been investigated based on the evolution of the earthquake insurance industry in California since its premises. This study shows that most of homeowners disregard earthquake insurance because the premium amount is too high and not because they underestimate the risk. We conclude that new insurance solutions must be designed to fill this protection gap.

Description: 〈b〉Simultaneous state-parameter estimation of rainfall-induced landslide displacement using data assimilation〈/b〉〈br〉 Jing Wang, Guigen Nie, Shengjun Gao, and Changhu Xue〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-24,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 It is necessary to do some prevention study of landslide hazard like the early warning and deformation prediction. This research proposes a new strategy to predict displacement of the landslide. Results confirm the accuracy and effectiveness of this method in displacement prediction, which can provide assistance in early risk assessment and landslide forecasting.

Description: 〈b〉Characteristics of a Hailstorm over the Andean La Paz Valley〈/b〉〈br〉 Marcelo Zamuriano, Andrey Martynov, Luca Panziera, and Stefan Brönnimann〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-27,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This work investigates the formation of a hailstorm over the Tropical Bolivian Andes. Using the WRF atmospheric model, we are able to numerically reconstruct it and we assess the main factors (mountains, lake and surface heating) in the storm formation. We propose physical mechanisms that have the potential to improve the forecasting of similar events; which are known to have a big impact over the Bolivian Altiplano, especially the region near Titicaca lake.

Description: 〈b〉Reducing uncertainty bounds of two-dimensional hydrodynamic model output by constraining model roughness〈/b〉〈br〉 Punit Kumar Bhola, Jorge Leandro, and Markus Disse〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-369,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The paper study investigates the use of measured water levels to reduce uncertainties bounds of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model output. Uncertainty assessment generally is not reported in practice due to the lack of best practices and too wide uncertainty bounds. Hence, a novel method to reduce the bounds by constraining the model parameter, mainly roughness, is presented. The operational practitioners as well as researchers benefits from the study in the field of flood risk management.

Description: 〈b〉Reducing uncertainty bounds of two-dimensional hydrodynamic model output by constraining model roughness〈/b〉〈br〉 Punit Kumar Bhola, Jorge Leandro, and Markus Disse〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-369,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The paper study investigates the use of measured water levels to reduce uncertainties bounds of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model output. Uncertainty assessment generally is not reported in practice due to the lack of best practices and too wide uncertainty bounds. Hence, a novel method to reduce the bounds by constraining the model parameter, mainly roughness, is presented. The operational practitioners as well as researchers benefits from the study in the field of flood risk management.

Description: 〈b〉Multicriterion assessment framework of flood events simulated with the vertically mixed runoff model in semiarid catchments in the middle Yellow River〈/b〉〈br〉 Dayang Li, Zhongmin Liang, Yan Zhou, Binquan Li, and Yupeng Fu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-402,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Flood forecasting and simulation in semiarid regions are always poor, and a single criterion assessment provides limited information for decision making. Here, we propose a multicriterion assessment framework combining the absolute relative error, the flow partitioning and the confidence interval to assess the most striking feature of an event-based flood––the peak flow. Our results show that the accepted rates of flood events improve a lot under the multicriterion assessment framework.

Description: 〈b〉A stochastic event-based approach for flood estimation in catchments with mixed rainfall and snowmelt flood regimes〈/b〉〈br〉 Valeriya Filipova, Deborah Lawrence, and Thomas Skaugen〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1-2019, 2019〈br〉 This paper presents a stochastic event-based method for analysis of extreme floods, which uses a Monte Carlo procedure to sample initial conditions, snowmelt and rainfall. A study of 20 catchments in Norway shows that this method gives flood estimates that are closer to those obtained using statistical flood frequency analysis than a deterministic event-based model based on a single design storm.

Description: 〈b〉Culture matters: Factors influencing natural hazard risk preparedness – a survey of Swiss households〈/b〉〈br〉 Elisabeth Maidl, David N. Bresch, and Matthias Buchecker〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-393,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Natural hazard risk management today aims to involve all actors possibly affected by damage. Citizens are regarded as responsible actors in risk mitigation. Practitioners therefore face the challenge of building social capacity towards such a culture of risk. Research on capacity building in Alpine countries, however, so far lacks empirical evidence on individual preparedness in the common population. This study for the first time provides insights for research and practice.

Description: 〈b〉Culture matters: Factors influencing natural hazard risk preparedness – a survey of Swiss households〈/b〉〈br〉 Elisabeth Maidl, David N. Bresch, and Matthias Buchecker〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-393,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Natural hazard risk management today aims to involve all actors possibly affected by damage. Citizens are regarded as responsible actors in risk mitigation. Practitioners therefore face the challenge of building social capacity towards such a culture of risk. Research on capacity building in Alpine countries, however, so far lacks empirical evidence on individual preparedness in the common population. This study for the first time provides insights for research and practice.

Description: 〈b〉Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using logic tree approach – Patna District (India)〈/b〉〈br〉 Panjamani Anbazhagan, Ketan Bajaj, Karanpreet Matharu, Sayed S. R. Moustafa, and Nassir S. N. Al-Arifi〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-328,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 〈p〉PGA and SA distribution for Patna district is presented considering both classical and zoneless approach through logic tree frame work to capture the epistemic uncertainty. Seismicity parameters are calculated by considering completed and mixed earthquake data. Maximum magnitude was calculated using three methods namely incremental method, Kijko method and regional rupture characteristics approach. Best suitable GMPE was selected by carrying out 〈q〉efficacy test〈/q〉 using log likelihood. Uniform hazard response spectra have been compared with Indian standard BIS 1893. PGA varies from 0.38 g to 0.30 g from southern to northern periphery considering 2 % probability of exceedence in 50 years.〈/p〉

Description: 〈b〉Efficacy of using Radar Induced Factors in Landslide Susceptibility Analysis: case study of Koslanda, Sri Lanka〈/b〉〈br〉 Ahangama Kankanamge Rasika Nishamanie Ranasinghe, Ranmalee Bandara, Udeni Gnanapriya Anuruddha Puswewala, and Thilantha Lakmal Dammalage〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-335,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Through the developments of radar and optical remote sensing in temporal, spectral, spatial, and global coverage, availability of images either at low cost or free of charge, large variety of applications are possible. This study assessed efficacy of Radar Induced Factors in identifying landslide susceptibility regions by considering the significance of radar inherent characteristics for disaster studies. With integration of radar factors, high and very low susceptibility regions are increased.

Description: 〈b〉Impacts of Horizontal Resolution and Air–Sea Flux Parameterization on the Intensity and Structure of simulated Typhoon Haiyan (2013)〈/b〉〈br〉 Mien-Tze Kueh, Wen-Mei Chen, Yang-Fan Sheng, Simon C. Lin, Tso-Ren Wu, Eric Yen, Yu-Lin Tsai, and Chuan-Yao Lin〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-333,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In this study, we show that both the model horizontal resolution and air-sea flux parameterization can exert large influence on tropical cyclone intensity simulation but with different impacts on wind structures. We highlight the intensification and contraction of TC eyewall in response to the reduction of grid spacing. We also suggest that a well-developed eyewall is more conducive to the positive effect of flux formulas on TC development.

Description: 〈b〉Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using logic tree approach – Patna District (India)〈/b〉〈br〉 Panjamani Anbazhagan, Ketan Bajaj, Karanpreet Matharu, Sayed S. R. Moustafa, and Nassir S. N. Al-Arifi〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-328,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 〈p〉PGA and SA distribution for Patna district is presented considering both classical and zoneless approach through logic tree frame work to capture the epistemic uncertainty. Seismicity parameters are calculated by considering completed and mixed earthquake data. Maximum magnitude was calculated using three methods namely incremental method, Kijko method and regional rupture characteristics approach. Best suitable GMPE was selected by carrying out 〈q〉efficacy test〈/q〉 using log likelihood. Uniform hazard response spectra have been compared with Indian standard BIS 1893. PGA varies from 0.38 g to 0.30 g from southern to northern periphery considering 2 % probability of exceedence in 50 years.〈/p〉

Description: 〈b〉Efficacy of using Radar Induced Factors in Landslide Susceptibility Analysis: case study of Koslanda, Sri Lanka〈/b〉〈br〉 Ahangama Kankanamge Rasika Nishamanie Ranasinghe, Ranmalee Bandara, Udeni Gnanapriya Anuruddha Puswewala, and Thilantha Lakmal Dammalage〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-335,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Through the developments of radar and optical remote sensing in temporal, spectral, spatial, and global coverage, availability of images either at low cost or free of charge, large variety of applications are possible. This study assessed efficacy of Radar Induced Factors in identifying landslide susceptibility regions by considering the significance of radar inherent characteristics for disaster studies. With integration of radar factors, high and very low susceptibility regions are increased.

Description: 〈b〉Study on the combined threshold for gully-type debris flow early warning〈/b〉〈br〉 Jian Huang, Theodoor Wouterus Johannes van Asch, Changming Wang, and Qiao Li〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 41-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-41-2019, 2019〈br〉 Wenjia gully is a typical gully-type debris flow, which has a large-scale catchment and great hazard risk to the local people. Based on the monitoring data for almost 6 years until now, the characteristics of debris-flow-triggering parameters (pore pressure and rainfall) have been analyzed, especially the relationship with debris flow occurrences. Then, a combined threshold has been presented and tested in order to provide a method for safeguarding the population in the region.

Description: 〈b〉Study of the threshold for the POT method based on hindcasted significant wave heights of tropical cyclone waves in the South China Sea〈/b〉〈br〉 Zhuxiao Shao, Bingchen Liang, Huajun Li, Ping Li, and Dongyoung Lee〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-349,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 〈p〉An assessment of extreme significant wave heights is performed in the South China Sea (SCS), which is crucial for the coastal and offshore engineering in this area. Two significant factors influencing the assessment are the initial database and the assessing method. The initial database is a basic for assessment, and the assessing method is used to extrapolate appropriate return significant wave heights based on this database during a period. In this study, a 40-year (1975–2014) hindcasted significant wave height of tropical cyclone waves is adopted as the initial database. Based on this database, the peak significant wave height of every tropical cyclone wave is directly extracted as the initial sample; the independent and identically distributed assumption is satisfied; and the interference for the selection of the sample is avoided. The peak over threshold (POT) method with the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) model is employed to extract the sufficiently large and high sample for model estimation. The peak excesses over a sufficiently high value (i.e., threshold) are fitted; thus, the return significant wave heights are highly dependent on the threshold. To determine the unique threshold for the POT method, characteristics of tropical cyclone waves are researched. The research results reveal that the separation value shown in the distribution of the initial sample is suitable for sampling in the SCS. Because the separation value is within the stable threshold range and the asymptotic tail approximation and estimation uncertainty are reasonable, the selected threshold is suitable and the corresponding return significant wave height is reliable.〈/p〉

Description: 〈b〉Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using nonhydrostatic model rainfalls. Part 2: Flood forecasting using 1600 member 4D-EnVAR predicted rainfalls〈/b〉〈br〉 Kenichiro Kobayashi, Apip, Le Duc, Tsutao Oizumi, and Kazuo Saito〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-343,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 Feasibility of flood forecasting with 1600 rainfall forecasts was investigated. The rainfall forecasts were obtained from an advanced data assimilation system. The high probability of flood occurrence was predicted, which could not be possible by the operational forecast. The necessity of emergency flood operation was shown with a long leading time. This suggests it is worth to invest on increasing numbers of meteorological ensembles to improve flood forecasting.

Description: 〈b〉Study on the combined threshold for gully-type debris flow early warning〈/b〉〈br〉 Jian Huang, Theodoor Wouterus Johannes van Asch, Changming Wang, and Qiao Li〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 41-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-41-2019, 2019〈br〉 Wenjia gully is a typical gully-type debris flow, which has a large-scale catchment and great hazard risk to the local people. Based on the monitoring data for almost 6 years until now, the characteristics of debris-flow-triggering parameters (pore pressure and rainfall) have been analyzed, especially the relationship with debris flow occurrences. Then, a combined threshold has been presented and tested in order to provide a method for safeguarding the population in the region.

Description: 〈b〉What's streamflow got to do with it? A probabilistic simulation of the competing oceanographic and fluvial processes driving extreme along-river water levels〈/b〉〈br〉 Katherine A. Serafin, Peter Ruggiero, Kai A. Parker, and David F. Hill〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-347,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In coastal environments, extreme water levels driving flooding are often generated by many individual processes like storm surge, streamflow, and tides. To estimate flood drivers along a coastal river, we merge statistical simulations of ocean and river forcing with a hydraulic model to produce water levels. We find both ocean and river forcing are necessary for producing extreme flood levels like the 100-yr event, highlighting the need for considering compound events in flood risk assessments.

Description: 〈b〉Study of the threshold for the POT method based on hindcasted significant wave heights of tropical cyclone waves in the South China Sea〈/b〉〈br〉 Zhuxiao Shao, Bingchen Liang, Huajun Li, Ping Li, and Dongyoung Lee〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-349,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 〈p〉An assessment of extreme significant wave heights is performed in the South China Sea (SCS), which is crucial for the coastal and offshore engineering in this area. Two significant factors influencing the assessment are the initial database and the assessing method. The initial database is a basic for assessment, and the assessing method is used to extrapolate appropriate return significant wave heights based on this database during a period. In this study, a 40-year (1975–2014) hindcasted significant wave height of tropical cyclone waves is adopted as the initial database. Based on this database, the peak significant wave height of every tropical cyclone wave is directly extracted as the initial sample; the independent and identically distributed assumption is satisfied; and the interference for the selection of the sample is avoided. The peak over threshold (POT) method with the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) model is employed to extract the sufficiently large and high sample for model estimation. The peak excesses over a sufficiently high value (i.e., threshold) are fitted; thus, the return significant wave heights are highly dependent on the threshold. To determine the unique threshold for the POT method, characteristics of tropical cyclone waves are researched. The research results reveal that the separation value shown in the distribution of the initial sample is suitable for sampling in the SCS. Because the separation value is within the stable threshold range and the asymptotic tail approximation and estimation uncertainty are reasonable, the selected threshold is suitable and the corresponding return significant wave height is reliable.〈/p〉

Description: 〈b〉The impact of drought on the productivity of two rainfed crops in Spain〈/b〉〈br〉 Marina Peña-Gallardo, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, and Santiago Beguería〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-1,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Drought events are of great importance in most Mediterranean climate regions and the impacts caused on rainfed crops are particularly evident. In this study the impacts of drought on two representative rainfed crops in Spain (wheat and barley) are assessed by testing various worldwide drought indices and two datasets at different spatial resolution.

Description: 〈b〉Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using nonhydrostatic model rainfalls. Part 2: Flood forecasting using 1600 member 4D-EnVAR predicted rainfalls〈/b〉〈br〉 Kenichiro Kobayashi, Apip, Le Duc, Tsutao Oizumi, and Kazuo Saito〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-343,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 Feasibility of flood forecasting with 1600 rainfall forecasts was investigated. The rainfall forecasts were obtained from an advanced data assimilation system. The high probability of flood occurrence was predicted, which could not be possible by the operational forecast. The necessity of emergency flood operation was shown with a long leading time. This suggests it is worth to invest on increasing numbers of meteorological ensembles to improve flood forecasting.

Description: 〈b〉What's streamflow got to do with it? A probabilistic simulation of the competing oceanographic and fluvial processes driving extreme along-river water levels〈/b〉〈br〉 Katherine A. Serafin, Peter Ruggiero, Kai A. Parker, and David F. Hill〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-347,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In coastal environments, extreme water levels driving flooding are often generated by many individual processes like storm surge, streamflow, and tides. To estimate flood drivers along a coastal river, we merge statistical simulations of ocean and river forcing with a hydraulic model to produce water levels. We find both ocean and river forcing are necessary for producing extreme flood levels like the 100-yr event, highlighting the need for considering compound events in flood risk assessments.

Description: 〈b〉The impact of drought on the productivity of two rainfed crops in Spain〈/b〉〈br〉 Marina Peña-Gallardo, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, and Santiago Beguería〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-1,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Drought events are of great importance in most Mediterranean climate regions and the impacts caused on rainfed crops are particularly evident. In this study the impacts of drought on two representative rainfed crops in Spain (wheat and barley) are assessed by testing various worldwide drought indices and two datasets at different spatial resolution.

Description: 〈b〉Ensemble flood forecasting considering dominant runoff processes – Part 1: Set-up and application to nested basins (Emme, Switzerland)〈/b〉〈br〉 Manuel Antonetti, Christoph Horat, Ioannis V. Sideris, and Massimiliano Zappa〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 19-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-19-2019, 2019〈br〉 To predict timing and magnitude peak run-off, meteorological and calibrated hydrological models are commonly coupled. A flash-flood forecasting chain is presented based on a process-based run-off generation module with no need for calibration. This chain has been evaluated using data for the Emme catchment (Switzerland). The outcomes of this study show that operational flash predictions in ungauged basins can benefit from the use of information on run-off processes.

Description: 〈b〉The Effects of Changing Climate on Estuarine Water Levels: A United States Pacific Northwest Case Study〈/b〉〈br〉 Kai Parker, David Hill, Gabriel García-Medina, and Jordan Beamer〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-383,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Our ability to manage estuaries is currently limited by a poor understanding of how they will evolve into the future. This study explores flooding conditions at two U.S. Pacific estuaries as controlled by changing climate. The hazard is characterized using a variety of models that track oceanic, atmospheric, and hydrologic forcing at decadal scales. It is found that flood surface height varies significantly across estuaries and can be expected to change in complex ways moving into the future.

Description: 〈b〉Analysis of Spatiotemporal variations in mid-upper tropospheric methane during the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake by three indices〈/b〉〈br〉 Jing Cui and Xuhui Shen〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-342,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 〈p〉This research studied the spatiotemporal variation in methane in the mid-upper troposphere during the Wenchuan earthquake (12 May, 2008) using AIRS retrieval data and discussed the methane anomaly mechanism. Three indices were proposed and used for analysis. Our results show that the methane concentration increased significantly in 2008, with an average increase of 5.12 * 10〈sup〉−8〈/sup〉, compared to the average increase of 1.18 * 10〈sup〉−8〈/sup〉 in the previous five years. The Alice and Diff indices can be used to identify methane concentration anomalies. The two indices showed that the methane concentration distribution before and after the earthquake broke the distribution features of the background field. As the earthquake approached, areas of high methane concentration gradually converged towards the west side of the epicenter from both ends of the Longmenshan fault zone. Moreover, a large anomalous area was centered at the epicenter eight days before the earthquake occurred, and a trend of strengthening, weakening and strengthening appeared over time. The Gradient index showed that the vertical direction obviously increased before the main earthquake, and the value was positive. The gradient value is negative during coseismic or postseismic events. The gradient index reflects the gas emission characteristics to some extent. We also determined that the methane release was connected with the deep crust-mantle stress state, as well as microfracture generation and expansion. However, due to the lack of any technical means to accurately identify the source and content of methane in the atmosphere before the earthquake, an in-depth discussion has not been conducted, and further studies on this issue may be needed.〈/p〉

Description: 〈b〉A stochastic event-based approach for flood estimation in catchments with mixed rainfall and snowmelt flood regimes〈/b〉〈br〉 Valeriya Filipova, Deborah Lawrence, and Thomas Skaugen〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1-2019, 2019〈br〉 This paper presents a stochastic event-based method for analysis of extreme floods, which uses a Monte Carlo procedure to sample initial conditions, snowmelt and rainfall. A study of 20 catchments in Norway shows that this method gives flood estimates that are closer to those obtained using statistical flood frequency analysis than a deterministic event-based model based on a single design storm.

Description: 〈b〉Simulation of Fragmental Rockfalls Detected Using Terrestrial Laser Scans from Rock Slopes in South-Central British Columbia, Canada〈/b〉〈br〉 Zac Sala, D. Jean Hutchinson, and Rob Harrap〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-321,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The work carried out for this study is part of a collaborative research program studying the impact of ground hazards on transportation infrastructure in Canada. The focus of the paper is the testing and application of a new simulation technique which can model the movement of falling rock material. These initial tests show that our simulation technique is capable of re-producing material accumulations from rockfall events which occurred above a section of railway in British Columbia, Canada.

Description: 〈b〉GIS-based earthquake-triggered landslide susceptibility mapping with an integrated weighted index model in Jiuzhaigou region of Sichuan Province, China〈/b〉〈br〉 Yaning Yi, Zhijie Zhang, Wanchang Zhang, Qi Xu, Cai Deng, and Qilun Li〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-8,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 On 8 August 2017, a Ms 7.0 earthquake struck the Jiuzhaigou region of Sichuan Province which triggered numerous landslides. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map was generated by using an integrated weighted index model. Results indicated that the integrated model has superior fitting performance and predictive capability. We expect that the generated landslide susceptibility map can be served as the scientific basis to mitigate hazards of the earthquake-triggered landslides.

Description: 〈b〉GIS-based earthquake-triggered landslide susceptibility mapping with an integrated weighted index model in Jiuzhaigou region of Sichuan Province, China〈/b〉〈br〉 Yaning Yi, Zhijie Zhang, Wanchang Zhang, Qi Xu, Cai Deng, and Qilun Li〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-8,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 1 comment)〈br〉 On 8 August 2017, a Ms 7.0 earthquake struck the Jiuzhaigou region of Sichuan Province which triggered numerous landslides. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map was generated by using an integrated weighted index model. Results indicated that the integrated model has superior fitting performance and predictive capability. We expect that the generated landslide susceptibility map can be served as the scientific basis to mitigate hazards of the earthquake-triggered landslides.

Description: 〈b〉Economic damage and spillovers from a tropical cyclone〈/b〉〈br〉 Manfred Lenzen, Arunima Malik, Steven Kenway, Peter Daniels, Ka Leung Lam, and Arne Geschke〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 137-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-137-2019, 2019〈br〉 We use the Industrial Ecology Virtual Laboratory to analyse the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Debbie on the Australian economy. We show that industries and regions that were not directly affected by storm and flood damage suffered significant job and income losses, highlighting that producers in modern economies are strongly interconnected - initially localised production shortfalls can ripple through entire upstream supply-chain networks and severely affect regional and national economies.

Description: 〈b〉SMC-Floods database: A high resolution press database on floods for the Spanish Mediterranean Coast (1960–2015)〈/b〉〈br〉 Salvador Gil-Guirado, Alfredo Pérez-Morales, and Francisco Lopez-Martinez〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-10,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In this study the SMC-Flood Database for the municipalities of the Mediterranean coast of mainland Spain is presented. This database has enabled the reconstruction of 3008 cases of flooding on a municipal scale between 1960 and 2015. The data analysis reveals a growing trend in the frequency and area affected by floods. The main novelty lies in the fact that we have detected a clear latitudinal gradient of growing intensity and severity of floods with a north–south direction.

Description: 〈b〉Tsunamigenic potential of a Holocene submarine landslide along the North Anatolian Fault (northern Aegean Sea, off Thasos island): insights from numerical modelling 〈/b〉〈br〉 Alexandre Janin, Mathieu Rodriguez, Dimitris Sakellariou, Vasilis Lykousis, and Christian Gorini〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 121-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-121-2019, 2019〈br〉 Here we present new numerical simulations showing that Holocene submarine landslides along the North Anatolian Fault in the Aegean Sea may have triggered tsunamis higher than the ones expected for earthquake sources. During the Holocene, the shore facing the city of Alexandroupoli may have been impacted by tsunami up to 1.65 m at the coastline.

Description: 〈b〉Chilling accumulation in temperate fruit trees in Spain under climate change〈/b〉〈br〉 Alfredo Rodríguez, David Pérez-López, Enrique Sánchez, Ana Centeno, Iñigo Gómara, Alessandro Dosio, and Margarita Ruiz-Ramos〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-392,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Temperate fruit trees account for almost half of the global fruit production. Fruit trees stop their growth during the coldest months of the year until meeting a required cold accumulation. Under future global warming scenarios, a reduction in cold accumulation in Spain is projected. This threatens the viability of some actual tree crops and varieties in some areas, but other varieties with less requirements can be used. Our results allow adapting future tree plantations under climate change.

Description: 〈b〉A spatial multicriteria prioritizing approach for geo-hydrological risk mitigation planning in small and densely urbanized Mediterranean basins〈/b〉〈br〉 Guido Paliaga, Francesco Faccini, Fabio Luino, and Laura Turconi〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 53-69, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-53-2019, 2019〈br〉 Planning geo-hydrological risk mitigation strategies is crucial in contexts of strong urbanization, high population density and great morphological heterogeneity. The paper addresses possible support in comparing small catchments on a quantitative basis and realizing a ranking among them: pointing out the more urgent situations and the relative factors may result in optimizing economic investments in prevention works.

Description: 〈b〉Formation of a multi-translational reactivated ancient landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China〈/b〉〈br〉 Shilin Luo, Xiaoguang Jin, Da Huang, and Tantan Zhu〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-399,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The field survey and laboratory tests were conducted and analyzed in detail. A conceptual model was proposed to elaborate the formation process and mechanism of this instability. The structural characteristic of mobilized material, rupture surface, topography saltation, and seasonal variation of groundwater exposure could be regarded as valid proofs in identifying ancient landslides. Long-term monitoring and emergency civil protection actions are necessary.

Description: 〈b〉Landslides near Enguri dam (Caucasus, Georgia) and possible seismotectonic effects〈/b〉〈br〉 Alessandro Tibaldi, Paolo Oppizzi, John Gierke, Thomas Oommen, Nino Tsereteli, and Zurab Gogoladze〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 71-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-71-2019, 2019〈br〉 In the framework of the NATO Science for Peace and Security Program, we have increased the knowledge on the geohazards affecting the Enguri hydroelectrical plant (Caucasus, Georgia). 2 km from the dam, active deformation (2–5 cm yr〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉) affects a slope facing the water reservoir. Our field, seismological and numerical analyses show that the worst scenario is represented by seismic shaking with a local peak ground acceleration capable of generating an unstable rock volume of up to 48 ± 12 × 10〈sup〉6〈/sup〉 m〈sup〉3〈/sup〉.

Description: 〈b〉A method of deriving operation-specific ski run classes for avalanche risk management decisions in mechanized skiing〈/b〉〈br〉 Reto Sterchi and Pascal Haegeli〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 269-285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-269-2019, 2019〈br〉 We used a revealed preference approach and identified patterns in risk management decisions of mechanized skiing operations. Our results show that terrain choices of experienced guides depend on a much broader set of factors beyond just the avalanche hazard, including skiing experience or accessibility due to weather. The identified high-resolution ski run hierarchies provide new opportunities for examining professional avalanche risk management practices and developing meaningful decision aids.

Description: 〈b〉Response time to flood events using a social vulnerability index (ReTSVI)〈/b〉〈br〉 Alvaro Hofflinger, Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, and Arturo Vallejos-Romero〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 251-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-251-2019, 2019〈br〉 In this work, we propose a novel methodology (ReTSVI) to integrate a social vulnerability index into flood hazard methodologies. ReTSVI combines a series of modules that are pieces of information that interact during an evacuation, such as evacuation rate curves, mobilization, inundation models, and social vulnerability indexes, to create an integrated map of the evacuation rate in a given location.

Description: 〈b〉From examination of natural events a proposal for risk mitigation of lahars by a cellular automata methodology: a case study for Vascún valley, Ecuador〈/b〉〈br〉 Valeria Lupiano, Francesco Chidichimo, Guillermo Machado, Paolo Catelan, Lorena Molina, Salvatore Straface, Gino M. Crisci, and Salvatore Di Gregorio〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-406,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 A method for risk mitigation of secondary lahars, triggered by violent rainfalls, is proposed as alternative to works for their containment or deviation, that could cause future disasters. It is based on the controlled generation of small lahars as a result of collapse of frail dams by backfill, forming momentary ponds as in natural cases. LLUNPIY verifies by simulation path, velocity, thickness, erosion of lahars, that could be produced; a complex case study for Vascún Valley, Ecuador is shown.

Description: 〈b〉Comparing the efficiency of hypoxia mitigation strategies in an urban, turbid tidal river, using a coupled hydro sedimentary–biogeochemical model〈/b〉〈br〉 Katixa Lajaunie-Salla, Aldo Sottolichio, Sabine Schmidt, Xavier Litrico, Guillaume Binet, and Gwenaël Abril〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-381,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 〈p〉In view of future coastal hypoxia widespreading, it is essential to define management solutions to preserve a good quality of coastal ecosystems. The lower Tidal Garonne River (TGR, SW France), characterized by the seasonal presence of a turbidity maximum zone and urban water discharges, is subject to episodic hypoxia events during summer low river flow periods. The future climatic conditions (higher temperature; summer droughts) but also an increasing urbanization could enhance hypoxia risks near the city of Bordeaux in the next decades. A 3D model of dissolved oxygen (DO), which couples hydrodynamics, sediment transport and biogeochemical processes, is used to assess the efficiency of different management solutions on TGR oxygenation during summer low-discharge periods. We have runned different scenarios of reduction of urban sewage overflows, displacement of urban discharges downstream from Bordeaux, and/or temporary river flow support during summer period. The model shows that each option limits hypoxia, but with variable efficiency over time and space. Sewage overflow reduction improves DO levels only locally near the city of Bordeaux. Downstream relocation of wastewater discharges allows to reach better oxygenation level in the lower TGR. The support of low river flow limits the upstream TMZ propagation and dilutes TGR waters with well-oxygenated river waters. Scenarios combining wastewater network management and low water replenishment indicate an improvement in water quality over the entire TGR. These modelling outcomes constitute important tools for local water authorities to develop the most appropriate strategies to limit hypoxia in TGR.〈/p〉

Description: 〈b〉Simulation of Fragmental Rockfalls Detected Using Terrestrial Laser Scans from Rock Slopes in South-Central British Columbia, Canada〈/b〉〈br〉 Zac Sala, D. Jean Hutchinson, and Rob Harrap〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-321,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The work carried out for this study is part of a collaborative research program studying the impact of ground hazards on transportation infrastructure in Canada. The focus of the paper is the testing and application of a new simulation technique which can model the movement of falling rock material. These initial tests show that our simulation technique is capable of re-producing material accumulations from rockfall events which occurred above a section of railway in British Columbia, Canada.

Description: 〈b〉Using cellular automata to simulate wildfire propagation and to assist in fire management〈/b〉〈br〉 Joana Gouveia Freire and Carlos Castro DaCamara〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 169-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-169-2019, 2019〈br〉 Cellular automata are useful tools to simulate wildfire propagation. We design a cellular automaton to simulate a severe wildfire that took place in Portugal in 2012 and resulted in almost 25 000 ha burned. The explosive stage is adequately modeled when refining the role played by the wind in fire spreading. Results show a probability of ignition out of the limits of the observed scar, information that may help choose where to allocate resources for firefighting.

Description: 〈b〉Laboratory and field tests and distinct element analysis of dry granular flows and segregation processes〈/b〉〈br〉 Yung Ming Cheng, Wing Hong Ivan Fung, Liang Li, and Na Li〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 181-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-181-2019, 2019〈br〉 The work in this paper can be useful for government engineers who need to make a decision on which debris flow barrier to use and assess the consequences of debris flow. Although the experiments in this paper are relatively simple, a deeper understanding of the debris flow process can be enhanced with the results in the present study.

Description: 〈b〉Using cellular automata to simulate wildfire propagation and to assist in fire management〈/b〉〈br〉 Joana Gouveia Freire and Carlos Castro DaCamara〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 169-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-169-2019, 2019〈br〉 Cellular automata are useful tools to simulate wildfire propagation. We design a cellular automaton to simulate a severe wildfire that took place in Portugal in 2012 and resulted in almost 25 000 ha burned. The explosive stage is adequately modeled when refining the role played by the wind in fire spreading. Results show a probability of ignition out of the limits of the observed scar, information that may help choose where to allocate resources for firefighting.

Description: 〈b〉Laboratory and field tests and distinct element analysis of dry granular flows and segregation processes〈/b〉〈br〉 Yung Ming Cheng, Wing Hong Ivan Fung, Liang Li, and Na Li〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 181-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-181-2019, 2019〈br〉 The work in this paper can be useful for government engineers who need to make a decision on which debris flow barrier to use and assess the consequences of debris flow. Although the experiments in this paper are relatively simple, a deeper understanding of the debris flow process can be enhanced with the results in the present study.

Description: 〈b〉Real-time monitoring and FEMLIP simulation of a rainfall-induced rockslide〈/b〉〈br〉 Zhaohua Li, Zhigang Tao, Yuanjun Jiang, Qian Lv, Felix Darve, and Manchao He〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 153-168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-153-2019, 2019〈br〉 〈p〉Rockslides are a common and devastating problem affecting mining and other engineering activities all over the world; consequently, there have been many studies into their prediction and prevention. This study focused on a recent rockslide in an open-pit mine in Liaoning Province, China. The stability of the rock slope under excavation and rainfall conditions was monitored using an efficient real-time monitoring system. A further numerical analysis was performed using the finite element method with Lagrangian integration points (FEMLIP), and two forms of the normalized global second-order work were calculated to analyze the stability of the rock slope. In fact for the future it would be very interesting to compare measurements and simulations in real time, and not only to develop back computations after failure. The numerical results indicate that the rock slope remained stable during excavation, yet lost stability after subsequent rainfall. Water infiltration, along with a major geological discontinuity, degraded the strength of the weak zone and induced the rockslide. The monitoring approach presented its robustness and generality, and was worth being generalized. The numerical approach proposed the evolution of the safety factor, the monitoring data were compared, and the mechanism of the rockslide was determined. It could be used as an assistant tool for disaster prediction.〈/p〉

Description: 〈b〉Economic damage and spillovers from a tropical cyclone〈/b〉〈br〉 Manfred Lenzen, Arunima Malik, Steven Kenway, Peter Daniels, Ka Leung Lam, and Arne Geschke〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 137-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-137-2019, 2019〈br〉 We use the Industrial Ecology Virtual Laboratory to analyse the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Debbie on the Australian economy. We show that industries and regions that were not directly affected by storm and flood damage suffered significant job and income losses, highlighting that producers in modern economies are strongly interconnected - initially localised production shortfalls can ripple through entire upstream supply-chain networks and severely affect regional and national economies.

Description: 〈b〉SMC-Floods database: A high resolution press database on floods for the Spanish Mediterranean Coast (1960–2015)〈/b〉〈br〉 Salvador Gil-Guirado, Alfredo Pérez-Morales, and Francisco Lopez-Martinez〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-10,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In this study the SMC-Flood Database for the municipalities of the Mediterranean coast of mainland Spain is presented. This database has enabled the reconstruction of 3008 cases of flooding on a municipal scale between 1960 and 2015. The data analysis reveals a growing trend in the frequency and area affected by floods. The main novelty lies in the fact that we have detected a clear latitudinal gradient of growing intensity and severity of floods with a north–south direction.

Description: 〈b〉Tsunamigenic potential of a Holocene submarine landslide along the North Anatolian Fault (northern Aegean Sea, off Thasos island): insights from numerical modelling 〈/b〉〈br〉 Alexandre Janin, Mathieu Rodriguez, Dimitris Sakellariou, Vasilis Lykousis, and Christian Gorini〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 121-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-121-2019, 2019〈br〉 Here we present new numerical simulations showing that Holocene submarine landslides along the North Anatolian Fault in the Aegean Sea may have triggered tsunamis higher than the ones expected for earthquake sources. During the Holocene, the shore facing the city of Alexandroupoli may have been impacted by tsunami up to 1.65 m at the coastline.

Description: 〈b〉Chilling accumulation in temperate fruit trees in Spain under climate change〈/b〉〈br〉 Alfredo Rodríguez, David Pérez-López, Enrique Sánchez, Ana Centeno, Iñigo Gómara, Alessandro Dosio, and Margarita Ruiz-Ramos〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-392,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Temperate fruit trees account for almost half of the global fruit production. Fruit trees stop their growth during the coldest months of the year until meeting a required cold accumulation. Under future global warming scenarios, a reduction in cold accumulation in Spain is projected. This threatens the viability of some actual tree crops and varieties in some areas, but other varieties with less requirements can be used. Our results allow adapting future tree plantations under climate change.

Description: 〈b〉Flash floods versus river floods – a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviour〈/b〉〈br〉 Jonas Laudan, Gert Zöller, and Annegret H. Thieken〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-407,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The paper focuses on psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods on affected individuals. Since the connection between psychological characteristics and protection motivation is not yet fully understood, potential coherences are investigated with regard to both flood types. As a main result, the frequency of remembering an event seems to be positively connected to a greater willingness to protect oneself, especially if affected by a weaker flood event.

Description: 〈b〉Characteristics and influencing factors of rainfall-induced landslide and debris flow hazards in Shaanxi Province, China〈/b〉〈br〉 Ke Zhang, Sheng Wang, Hongjun Bao, and Xiaomeng Zhao〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 93-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-93-2019, 2019〈br〉 We investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics of landslide and debris flow hazards in Shaanxi Province and quantified the relationships between the occurrence rates of the two hazards and their influencing factors, including antecedent rainfall amount, rainfall duration, rainfall intensity, terrain slope, land cover type and soil type. Rainfall amount, duration, and intensity and slope are the dominant factors controlling slope stability across this region.

Description: 〈b〉Atmospheric conditions of extreme precipitation events in western Turkey for the period 2006–2015〈/b〉〈br〉 Bulent Oktay Akkoyunlu, Hakki Baltaci, and Mete Tayanc〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 107-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-107-2019, 2019〈br〉 〈p〉This paper investigates the precipitation types and background physical mechanisms of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) over western Turkey during the period 2006–2015. The EPEs are described as the precipitation values above the 90th percentile obtained from the hourly precipitation dataset, which has high spatial resolution. Precipitation types associated with EPEs are identified by using radar outputs and the Lamb weather type (LWT) approach. It is found that EPEs occurred more frequently in the Marmara and Aegean regions during autumn and winter months. In Marmara, mainly 21 %, 17 %, and 15 % of total autumn EPEs show convective, cyclonic, and sea-effect precipitation characteristics, respectively. While convective EPEs are seen more commonly in the southern portions, cyclonic and sea-effect-originated EPEs mainly affect the southwest and northeastern parts of Marmara. Among these three precipitation types, convective mechanisms generally produce more intense daily precipitation (66.1 mm on average) in the Marmara Region under the proper synoptic conditions (high-pressure center over the Balkan Peninsula and low-pressure center over the eastern Mediterranean). Based on the hourly observations, convective types of extreme precipitation (EP) show two peak values during afternoon and evening times of the day and are linked to diurnal heating. In terms of the Aegean Region, cyclone-originated EP, which includes 65 % of the total winter EPEs, is more common in the whole territory and reaches its peak value during the early hours of the day.〈/p〉