ALBERT

Description: In recent years, several workers have found numerous cases of sites characterised by significant azimuthal variation of dynamic response to seismic shaking. The causes of this phenomenon are still unclear, but are possibly related to combinations of geological and geomorphological factors determining a polarisation of resonance effects. To improve their comprehension, it would be desirable to extend the database of observations on this phenomenon. Thus, considering that unrevealed cases of site response directivity can be “hidden” among the sites of accelerometer networks, we developed a two-stage approach of data mining from existing strong motion databases to identify sites affected by directional amplification. The proposed procedure first calculates Arias Intensity tensor components from accelerometer recordings of each site to determine mean directional variations of total shaking energy. Then, at the sites where a significant anisotropy appears in ground motion, azimuthal variations of HVSR values (spectral ratios between horizontal and vertical components of recordings) are analysed to confirm the occurrence of site resonance conditions. We applied this technique to a database of recordings acquired by accelerometer stations in the Iranian area. The results of this investigation pointed out some sites affected by directional resonance that appear to be correlated to the orientation of local tectonic lineaments, these being mostly transversal to the direction of maximum shaking. Comparing Arias Intensities observed at these sites with theoretical estimates provided by ground motion prediction equations, the presence of significant site amplifications was confirmed. The magnitude of the amplification factors appear to be correlated to the results of HVSR analysis, even though the pattern of dispersion of HVSR values suggests that while high peak values of spectral ratios are indicative of strong amplifications, lower values do not necessarily imply lower amplification factors.

Description: We investigated frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD) of acoustic emissions (AE) occurring near an active mining front in a South African gold mine, using a catalog developed from an AE network, which is capable of detecting AEs down to M W  −5. When records of blasts were removed, FMDs of AEs obeyed a Gutenberg−Richter law with similar b values, not depending on post-blasting time from the initial 1-min interval through more than 30 h. This result denies a suggestion in a previous study ( Richardson and Jordan Bull Seismol Soc Am, 92:1766–1782, 2002 ) that new fractures generated by blasting disturb the size distribution of background events, which they interpreted as slip events on existing weak planes. Our AE catalog showed that the GR law with b ∼ 1.2 was valid between M W  −3.7 and 0 for AEs around the mining front. Further, using the mine’s seismic catalog, which covers a longer time period of the same area, we could extend the validity range of the GR law with the same b value up to M W 1.

Description: In this paper, by using multi-temporal and high resolution Landsat data and geographic information system techniques, the land use/land cover (LULC) in the 2-km buffer zone of 52 meteorological stations in the Anhui province of China is retrieved and categorized into three types: vegetation (including farmland, forest and grass land), water (including lakes, rivers and pools), and construction (including buildings and roads). Besides, the land surface temperature (LST) in the buffer zone of these stations is also obtained from thermal infrared data. The normalized LST index (NLI) and the heat effect contribution index (HECI) of different LULC types are calculated. Via case studies and statistical analysis, the LULC and thermal environment’s temporal-spatial variance in the 2-km buffer zone of these stations are surveyed, and their impacts on the observational environment are investigated. The study shows that the observational environments of the meteorological stations in Anhui province have been greatly influenced by rapid urbanization. The study proposes two new methods to classify the stations’ observational environment into three types (urban, sub-urban, and rural). One uses the NLI and the other uses the HECI. The NLI method needs only LST information. The HECI method combines both LULC and LST information and, hence, is considered more reliable. The evaluation methods and criteria can be used conveniently, effectively, and quantitatively, and are especially useful when analyzing observational data from meteorological stations in weather and climate research and when choosing a location for a new meteorological station.

Description: The northern part of the Western Desert of Egypt represents the second most promising area of hydrocarbon potential after the Gulf of Suez province. An artificial neural network (ANN) approach was used to develop a new predictive model for calculation of the geothermal gradients in this region based on gravity and corrected bottom-hole temperature (BHT) data. The best training data set was obtained with an ANN architecture composed of seven neurons in the hidden layer, which made it possible to predict the geothermal gradient with satisfactory efficiency. The BHT records of 116 deep oil wells (2,000–4,500 m) were used to evaluate the geothermal resources in the northern Western Desert. Corrections were applied to the BHT data to obtain the true formation equilibrium temperatures, which can provide useful constraints on the subsurface thermal regime. On the basis of these corrected data, the thermal gradient was computed for the linear sections of the temperature-versus-depth data at each well. The calculated geothermal gradient using temperature log data was generally 30 °C/km, with a few local high geothermal gradients in the northwestern parts of the study area explained by potential local geothermal fields. The Bouguer gravity values from the study area ranged from −60 mGal in the southern parts to 120 mGal in the northern areas, and exhibited NE–SW and E–W trends associated with geological structures. Although the northern Western Desert of Egypt has low regional temperature gradients (30 °C/km), several potential local geothermal fields were found (〉40 °C/km). The heat flow at each well was also computed by combining sets of temperature gradients and thermal conductivity data. Aerogravity data were used to delineate the subsurface structures and tectonic framework of the region. The result of this study is a new geothermal gradient map of the northern Western Desert developed from gravity and BHT log data.

Description: The estimated Green’s function (EGF) extracted from the ambient seismic noise cross-correlation function (NCF) enables valuable calibration of surface wave propagation along the path connecting seismic stations. Such calibration is adopted in a new method for ground truth location of earthquakes, achieved from the location relative to a seismic station. The surface wave group travel times were obtained from the NCFs between a station near the earthquake and remote stations. The differential travel times from the NCFs and the surface wave of the earthquake were used in a relative location procedure. When this method was applied to earthquake location with only six seismic stations in western Australia, the location of the Mw 4.1 Kalannie (September 21, 2005) earthquake was found to be accurate to within 2 km compared with the ground truth location with InSAR for which azimuth coverage of seismic stations is preferable. Synthetic tests suggest that the group travel time is slightly affected by focal mechanism and focal depth, thus unknown earthquake source parameters did not introduce substantial bias to earthquake location with the group travel time method.

Description: Tsunami warning is classically based on two fundamental tools: the first one concerns the source parameters estimations, and the second one is the tsunami amplitude forecast. We presented in the first companion paper how the seismic source parameters are evaluated, and this second article describes the operational aspect and accuracy of the estimation of tsunami height using tsunami numerical modelling on a dedicated supercomputer (2.5 T-flops). The French Polynesian tsunami warning centre developed two new tsunami forecast tools for a tsunami warning context, based on our tsunami propagation numerical model named Taitoko. The first tool, named MERIT , that is very rapid, provides a preliminary forecast distribution of the tsunami amplitude for 30 sites located in French Polynesia in less than 5 min. In this case, the coastal tsunami height distribution is calculated from the numerical simulation of the tsunami amplitude in deep ocean using an empirical transfer function inspired by the Green Law. This method, which does not take into account resonance effects of bays and harbour, is suitable for rapid and first estimation of the tsunami danger. The second method, named COASTER , which uses 21 nested grids of increasing resolutions, gives more information about the coastal tsunami effects about the flow velocities, the arrival time of the maximal amplitude, and the maximal run-up height for five representative sites in 45 min. The historical tsunamis recorded over the last 22 years in French Polynesia have been simulated with these new tools to evaluate the accuracy of these methods. The results of the 23 historical tsunami simulations have been compared to the tide-gauge records of three sites in French Polynesia. The results, which are quite encouraging, shows standard errors of generally less than a 2 factor : the maximal standard error is 0.38 m for the Tahauku Bay of Hiva-Oa (Marquesas islands).

Description: Analysis performed on multiple sets of earthquake networks created for the Hawaii volcanic system reveals characteristics that can be associated with fundamental properties of seismicity. The scale-free behaviour of the connectivity distribution along the spectrum of the minimum weight values, which can be used to discern the interrelated earthquakes from the rest of the data set, is mirrored by a similar behaviour of the distribution of the number of linked neighbours. The patterns found in the distributions of temporal and spatial intervals between earthquakes are similar from large to small networks. Similarities are found between the variation of the network clustering coefficient, C, and the variation of the exponents of the connectivity distribution, β , and of the weight distribution, γ; their synchronous variation over successive temporal windows can be related to changes in seismicity and in the life of the volcanic system. A Zipf distribution is found for the ranked sets of magnitude values of successive network nodes. The distribution of differences between the magnitude values of successive nodes is also governed by a power law.

Description: We have studied, for the first time, variations in absolute surface geostrophic currents (SGC) using satellite data only. The proposed approach combines 18 years’ altimetry data, which provide reliable measurements of absolute sea level (ASL), with a gravity field and steady-state ocean circulation explorer geoid model to obtain dynamic topography, and achieves unprecedented precision and accuracy. Our proposal overcomes the main limitations of existing approaches based solely on altimetry data (which suffer from lack of an independent reference for derivation of ASL maps), and approximations based on in-situ data (which are characterized by a sparse and inhomogeneous coverage in time and space). Features of annual variations of SGC are also addressed. As a result of our study we provide new absolute SGC climatology in the form of a 52-week data set of surface current fields, gridded at quarter degree longitude and latitude resolution and resolving spatial scales as short as 140 km. For presentation, this data set is averaged monthly and the results, presented as monthly climatology, are compared with climatology based on in-situ observations from drifter data.

Description: Model forecast applications use various models of tsunami sources inferred from different measurement data. Even the same type of observation data can produce substantially different tsunami source models during a real-time forecast when more data are obtained during the real-time analysis. Improved tsunami observations enable investigation of the influence of such model source variability on the final forecast using different source data sets of several events. The 2010 Maule, Chile and 2011 Tohoku, Japan tsunamis were two recent events that provide ample observations throughout the Pacific and were, thus, used here to study the sensitivity of different model inputs for forecasting. The sources for these events were derived using the following three different methods: (1) real time or post event inversion of tsunameter water level data; (2) prediction of sea floor deformations via analysis of seismic wave forms and application of a finite fault model; and (3) prediction of sea floor deformation using real-time GPS data. For the March 11, 2011 Tohoku tsunami, two examples of each method are used, while for the February 27, 2010 Maule event, only one tsunameter inversion and one finite fault model method were used due to a much more limited data set. Observed data from the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting for Tsunamis (DART) network, Japan GPS buoys, and select tide gauges across the Pacific were compared with forecasts to assess the sensitivity of these three methods using root-mean-square error analysis. We divided the analysis by the type of data and the distance from the source. This sensitivity analysis showed that increasing the resolution of a tsunami source model does not necessarily improve tsunami forecast quality, even in the near-field. Instead, the findings suggest that when forecasting coastal impact, defining the overall energy characteristic of a tsunami source may be more important than refining small source details. Source models based on direct tsunami observations are better at reproducing a tsunami signal: this finding is not very surprising but has implications for tsunami forecasting and warning operations.

Description: The Seychelles, an archipelago in the Indian Ocean at a distance of 4,500–5,000 km from the west coast of Sumatra, were severely affected by the December 26, 2004 tsunami with wave heights up to 4 m. Since the tsunami history of small islands often remains unclear due to a young historical record, it is important to study the geological traces of high energy events preserved along their coasts. We conducted a survey of the impact of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on the inner Seychelles islands. In detail we studied onshore tsunami deposits in the mangrove forest at Old Turtle Pond in the Curieuse Marine National Park on the east coast of Curieuse Island. It is thus protected from anthropogenic interference. Towards the sea it was shielded until the tsunami in 2004 by a 500 m long and 1.5 m high causeway which was set up in 1909 as a sediment trap and assuring a low energetic hydrodynamic environment for the protection of the mangroves. The causeway was destroyed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. The tsunami caused a change of habitat by the sedimentation of sand lobes in the mangrove forest. The dark organic rich mangrove soil (1.9 Φ) was covered by bimodal fine to medium carbonate sand (1.7–2.2 Φ) containing coarser carbonate shell fragments and debris. Intertidal sediments and the mangrove soil acted as sources of the lobe deposits. The sand sheet deposited by the tsunami is organized into different lobes. They extend landwards to different inundation distances as a function of the morphology of the onshore area. The maximum extent of 180 m from the shoreline indicates the minimum inundation distance to the tsunami. The top parts of the sand lobes cover the pneumatophores of the mangroves. There is no landward fining trend along the sand lobes and normal grading of the deposits is rare, occurring only in 1 of 7 sites. The sand lobe deposits also lack sedimentary structures. On the surface of the sand lobes numerous mostly fragmented shells of bivalves and molluscs were distributed up to 150 m from the coastline. Intact bivalve shells were mostly found positioned with the convex side upwards. On small ledges of a granitic body at 130–150 m from the shore mostly fragmented and gravel sized shells were deposited at different elevations up to 4 m above sea level. This implies a run up height of at least 4 m above sea level up to 150 m from the present shoreline.

Description: The most recent tsunami observed along the coast of the island of Puerto Rico occurred on October 11, 1918, after a magnitude 7.2 earthquake in the Mona Passage. The earthquake was responsible for initiating a tsunami that mostly affected the northwestern coast of the island. Runup values from a post-tsunami survey indicated the waves reached up to 6 m. A controversy regarding the source of the tsunami has resulted in several numerical simulations involving either fault rupture or a submarine landslide as the most probable cause of the tsunami. Here we follow up on previous simulations of the tsunami from a submarine landslide source off the western coast of Puerto Rico as initiated by the earthquake. Improvements on our previous study include: (1) higher-resolution bathymetry; (2) a 3D–2D coupled numerical model specifically developed for the tsunami; (3) use of the non-hydrostatic numerical model NEOWAVE (non-hydrostatic evolution of ocean WAVE) featuring two-way nesting capabilities; and (4) comprehensive energy analysis to determine the time of full tsunami wave development. The three-dimensional Navier–Stokes model tsunami solution using the Navier–Stokes algorithm with multiple interfaces for two fluids (water and landslide) was used to determine the initial wave characteristic generated by the submarine landslide. Use of NEOWAVE enabled us to solve for coastal inundation, wave propagation, and detailed runup. Our results were in agreement with previous work in which a submarine landslide is favored as the most probable source of the tsunami, and improvement in the resolution of the bathymetry yielded inundation of the coastal areas that compare well with values from a post-tsunami survey. Our unique energy analysis indicates that most of the wave energy is isolated in the wave generation region, particularly at depths near the landslide, and once the initial wave propagates from the generation region its energy begins to stabilize.

Description: Magma is generated by partial melting from micrometre-scale droplets at the source and may accumulate to form 〉100 km-scale plutons. Magma accumulation thus spans well over ten orders of magnitude in scale. Here we provide measurements of migmatitic leucosomes and granitic veins in drill cores from the Estonian Proterozoic basement and outcrops at Masku in SW Finland and Montemor-o-Novo, central Portugal. Despite the differences in size and number of measured leucosomes and magmatic veins, differences in host rock types and metamorphic grades, the cumulative width distribution of the studied magmatic leucosomes/veins follows a power law with exponents usually between 0.7 and 1.8. Published maps of the SE Australian Lachlan Fold Belt were used to investigate the distribution of granitoid pluton sizes. The granites occupy ca. 22 % of the 2.6 × 10 5  km 2 area. The cumulative pluton area distributions show good power law distributions with exponents between 0.6 and 0.8 depending on pluton area group. Using the self-affine nature of pluton shapes, it is possible to estimate the total volume of magma that was expelled from the source in the 2.6 × 10 5 km 2 map area, giving an estimated 0.8 km 3 of magma per km 2 . It has been suggested in the literature that magma batches in the source merge to form ever-bigger batches in a self-organized way. This leads to a power law for the cumulative distribution of magma volumes, with an exponent m V between 1 for inefficient melt extraction, and 2/3 for maximum accumulation efficiency as most of the volume resides in the largest batches that can escape from the source. If m V  ≥ 1, the mass of the magma is dominated by small batches; in case m  = 2/3, about 50 % of all magma in the system is placed in a single largest batch. Our observations support the model that the crust develops a self-organized critical state during magma generation. In this state, magma batches accumulate in a non-continuous, step-wise manner to form ever-larger accumulations. There is no characteristic length or time scale in the partial melting process or its products. Smallest melt segregations and 〉km-scale plotuns form the end members of a continuous chain of mergers of magma batches.

Description: The first-order (or linear) Rytov or Born approximation is the foundation for formulation of wave-equation tomography and waveform inversion, so the validity of the Rytov/Born approximation can substantially affect the applicability of these theories. However, discussions and research reported in literature on this topic are insufficient or limited. In this paper we introduce five variables in scattering theory to help us discuss conditions under which the Rytov approximation, in the form of the finite frequency sensitivity kernels (RFFSK), the basis of waveform inversion and tomography, is valid. The five variables are propagation length L , heterogeneity scale a , wavenumber k , anisotropy ratio ξ , and perturbation strength ɛ . Combined with theoretical analysis and numerical experiments, we conclude that varying the conditions used to establish the Rytov approximation can lead to uninterpretable or undesired results. This conclusion has two consequences. First, one cannot rigorously apply the linear Rytov approximation to all theoretical or practical cases without discussing its validity. Second, the nonlinear Rytov approximation is essential if the linear Rytov approximation is not valid. Different from previous literature, only phase (or travel time) terms for the whole wavefield are discussed. The time shifts of two specific events between the background and observed wavefields measured by cross-correlation will serve as a reference for evaluation of whether the time shifts predicted by the FFSKs are reasonably acceptable. Significantly, the reference “cross-correlation” should be regarded as reliable only if the condition “two specific similar signals” is satisfied. We cannot expect it to provide a reasonable result if this condition is not met. This paper reports its reliability and experimental limitations. Using cross-correlation (CC) samples as the X axis and sensitivity kernel (SK) or ray tracing (RT) samples as the Y axis, a chart of cross validation among the three is established. According to experimental analysis for a random and deterministic medium, the RFFSK works well for diffraction and geometric optics enclosed by the boundaries ka  〉 1 and (Λ 〈 1, ΛΦ 〈 2 π  ∪ Λ 〉 1, Φ 〈 2 π ), where Λ is a diffraction variable and Φ is a variable used to measure scattering strength. Both Λ and Φ depend on the five variables mentioned above. However, a large perturbation will limit the applicability of the Rytov approximation and narrow the range in which it is valid, because larger ɛ results in higher-amplitude fluctuations and larger back-scattering. Therefore, large ɛ is important in making SK/RT predictions discrepant from correct CC measurements. We also confirm that the RFFSK theory has wider range of application than ray theory. All the experiments point out the importance, both practical and theoretical, of respecting the conditions used to establish the Rytov approximation.

Description: The paucity of geodetic data acquired on active volcanoes can make the understanding of modelling magmatic systems quite difficult. In this study, we propose a novel approach, which allows improving the parameter estimation of analytical models of magmatic sources (e.g., shape, depth, dimensions, volume change, etc.) by means of a joint inversion of surface ground deformation data and P -axes of focal plane solutions. The methodology is first verified against a synthetic dataset of surface deformation and strain within the medium, and then applied to real data from an unrest episode occurred before the May 13 2008 eruption at Mt. Etna (Italy). The main results clearly indicate the joint inversion improves the accuracy of the estimated source parameters by about 70 %. The statistical tests indicate that the source depth is the parameter with the highest increment of accuracy. In addition, a sensitivity analysis confirms that displacements data are more useful to constrain the pressure and the horizontal location of the source than its depth, while the P -axes better constrain the depth estimation.

Description: The Taiwan Chelungpu Fault Drilling Project (TCDP) drilled a 2-km-deep hole 2.4 km east of the surface rupture of the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake ( M w 7.6), near the town of Dakeng. Geophysical well logs at the TCDP site were run over depths ranging from 500 to 1,900 m to obtain the physical properties of the fault zones and adjacent damage zones. These data provide good reference material for examining the validity of velocity structures using microtremor array measurement; therefore, we conduct array measurements for a total of four arrays at two sites near the TCDP drilling sites. The phase velocities at frequencies of 0.2–5 Hz are calculated using the frequency-wavenumber ( f – k ) spectrum method. Then the S-wave velocity structures are estimated by employing surface wave inversion techniques. The S-wave velocity from the differential inversion technique gradually increases from 1.52 to 2.22 km/s at depths between 585 and 1,710 m. This result is similar to those from the velocity logs, which range from 1.4 km/s at a depth of 597 m to 2.98 km/s at a depth of 1,705 m. The stochastic inversion results are similar to those from the seismic reflection methods and the lithostratigraphy of TCDP-A borehole, comparatively. These results show that microtremor array measurement provides a good tool for estimating deep S-wave velocity structure.

Description: An ice microphysics parameterization scheme has been modified to better describe and understand ice fog formation. The modeling effort is based on observations in the Sub-Arctic Region of Interior Alaska, where ice fog occurs frequently during the cold season due to abundant water vapor sources and strong inversions existing near the surface at extremely low air temperatures. The microphysical characteristics of ice fog are different from those of other ice clouds, implying that the microphysical processes of ice should be changed in order to generate ice fog particles. Ice fog microphysical characteristics were derived with the NCAR Video Ice Particle Sampler during strong ice fog cases in the vicinity of Fairbanks, Alaska, in January and February 2012. To improve the prediction of ice fog in the Weather Research and Forecasting model, observational data were used to change particle size distribution properties and gravitational settling rates, as well as to implement a homogeneous freezing process. The newly implemented homogeneous freezing process compliments the existing heterogeneous freezing scheme and generates a higher number concentration of ice crystals than the original Thompson scheme. The size distribution of ice crystals is changed into a Gamma distribution with the shape factor of 2.0, using the observed size distribution. Furthermore, gravitational settling rates are reduced for the ice crystals since the crystals in ice fog do not precipitate in a similar manner when compared to the ice crystals of cirrus clouds. The slow terminal velocity plays a role in increasing the time scale for the ice crystals to settle to the surface. Sensitivity tests contribute to understanding the effects of water vapor emissions as an anthropogenic source on the formation of ice fog.

Description: The 2011 Tohoku mega earthquake ( M w  = 9) is unique due to a combination of its large magnitude and the high level of detail of regional seismic data. The authors analyzed the seismic regime in the vicinity of this event using data from the Japan Meteorological Agency catalog and world databases. It was shown that a regional decrease in b -value and of the number of main shocks took place in the 6–7 years prior to the Tohoku mega earthquake. The space–time area of such changes coincided with the development of precursor effects in this area, as revealed by Lyubushin (Geofiz Prots Biosfera 10:9–35, 2011 ) from the analysis of microseisms recorded by the broadband seismic network F-net in Japan. The combination of episodes of growth in the number of earthquakes, accompanied by a corresponding decrease in the b-value and average depth of the earthquakes, was observed for the foreshock and aftershock sequences of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Some of these anomalies were similar to those observed (also post factum) by Katsumata (Earth Planets Space 63:709–712, 2011 ), Nanjo et al. (Geophys Res Lett 39, 2012 ), and Huang and Ding (Bull Seismol Soc Am 102:1878–1883, 2012 ), whereas others were not described before. The correlation of the periods of growth in seismic activity with the decrease of the average depth of earthquakes can be explained by the growth of fluid activity and the tendency of a penetration of low density fluids into the upper horizons of the lithosphere. The unexpectedly strong Tohoku mega earthquake with a rather small rupture area caused an unexpectedly high tsunami wave. From here it seems plausible that M9+ earthquakes with a large tsunami could occur in other subduction zones where such cases were suggested before to be impossible.

Description: A very fast and efficient approach for gravity data inversion based on the regularized conjugate gradient method has been developed. This approach simultaneously inverts for the depth ( z ), and the amplitude coefficient ( A ) of a buried anomalous body from the gravity data measured along a profile. The developed algorithm fits the observed data by a class of some geometrically simple anomalous bodies, including the semi-infinite vertical cylinder, infinitely long horizontal cylinder, and sphere models using the logarithms of the model parameters [log( z ) and log(| A |)] rather than the parameters themselves in its iterative minimization scheme. The presented numerical experiments have shown that the original (non-logarithmed) minimization scheme, which uses the parameters themselves ( z and | A |) instead of their logarithms, encountered a variety of convergence problems. The aforementioned transformation of the objective functional subjected to minimization into the space of logarithms of z and | A | overcomes these convergence problems. The reliability and the applicability of the developed algorithm have been demonstrated on several synthetic data sets with and without noise. It is then successfully and carefully applied to seven real data examples with bodies buried in different complex geologic settings and at various depths inside the earth. The method is shown to be highly applicable for mineral exploration, and for both shallow and deep earth imaging, and is of particular value in cases where the observed gravity data is due to an isolated body embedded in the subsurface.

Description: This paper describes a method for interpreting the lateral changes in the geological structure of the lithosphere by iteratively calculating the spatial variation of a bottom-to-top loading ratio. We use Forsyth’s coherence method, based on multi-taper spectral analysis on overlapping window areas. We discuss the geological findings and their comparison with existing geological interpretations for the Sri Lankan region. The low thickness of the elastic plate in the Sri Lankan region suggests a high geothermal gradient. The lithospheric geological structure beneath the Sri Lankan region is consistent with the main crustal units of Sri Lanka, which belong to different ancient plates. Together with interpretations based on metamorphic rock units, our findings support the existence of thrust contact in the central highlands of Sri Lanka.

Description: We derived explicit expressions in the time domain for 3-D quasi-static strain and stress fields, due to a point moment tensor source in an elastic surface layer overlying viscoelastic half-space under gravity. The expressions of strain in the elastic surface layer were directly obtained from the expressions of displacement in our previous paper. The conversion of strain into stress is easy, because the stress–strain relation of elastic material is linear. In the viscoelastic substratum, the expressions of strain were obtained by applying the correspondence principle of linear viscoelasticity to the associated elastic solution. The strain–stress conversion is not straightforward, as the stress–strain relation of viscoelastic material is usually given in a differential form. To convert strain into stress, we used an integral form of the stress–strain relation instead of the usual differential form. The expressions give the responses of elastic half-space at $ t = 0 $ , and the responses of an elastic plate floating on non-viscous liquid at $ t = \infty $ . The moment tensor is rationally decomposed into the three independent force systems, corresponding to isotropic expansion, shear faulting and crack opening, and so the expressions include the strain and stress fields for these force systems as special cases. As the first numerical example, we computed the temporal changes in strain and stress fields after the sudden opening of an infinitely long vertical crack cutting the elastic surface layer. Here, we observe that the stress changes caused by the sudden crack opening gradually decay with time and vanish at $ t = \infty $ everywhere. After the completion of stress relaxation, a characteristic pattern of shear strain remains in the viscoelastic substratum. Since the strain and stress fields at $ t = \infty $ can be read as the strain- and stress-rate fields caused by steady crack opening, respectively, this numerical example demonstrates the realization of a steady stress state supported by steady viscous flow in the asthenosphere, associated with steady seafloor spreading at mid-ocean ridges. For the second numerical example, we computed the temporal changes in strain and stress fields after the 2011 Tohoku-oki mega-thrust earthquake, which occurred at the North American-Pacific plate interface. In this numerical example, the stress changes caused by coseismic fault slip vanish at $ t = \infty $ in the viscoelastic substratum, but remain in the elastic surface layer. The coseismic stress changes (and also strain changes) in the elastic surface layer diffuse away from the source region with time, due to gradual stress relaxation in the viscoelastic substratum.

Description: Shear zones in outcrops and core drillings on active faults commonly reveal two scales of localization, with centimeter to tens of meters thick deformation zones embedding much narrower zones of mm-scale to cm-scale. The narrow zones are often attributed to some form of fast instability such as earthquakes or slow slip events. Surprisingly, the double localisation phenomenon seem to be independent of the mode of failure, as it is observed in brittle cataclastic fault zones as well as ductile mylonitic shear zones. In both, a very thin layer of chemically altered, ultra fine grained ultracataclasite or ultramylonite is noted. We present an extension to the classical solid mechanical theory where both length scales emerge as part of the same evolutionary process of shearing the host rock. We highlight the important role of any type of solid-fluid phase transitions that govern the second degree localisation process in the core of the shear zone. In both brittle and ductile shear zones, chemistry stops the localisation process caused by a multiphysics feedback loop leading to an unstable slip. The microstructural evolutionary processes govern the time-scale of the transition between slow background shear and fast, intermittent instabilities in the fault zone core. The fast cataclastic fragmentation processes are limiting the rates of forming the ultracataclasites in the brittle domain, while the slow dynamic recrystallisation prolongs the transition to ultramylonites into a slow slip instability in the ductile realm.

Description: We investigated the frequency-dependent attenuation of the crust in Eastern Iran by analysis data from 132 local earthquakes having focal depths in the range of 5–25 km. We estimated the quality factor of coda waves ( Q c ) and body waves ( Q p and Q s ) in the frequency band of 1.5–24 Hz by applying the single backscattering theory of S-coda envelopes and the extended coda-normalization method, respectively. Considering records from recent earthquakes (Rigan M w 6.5, 2010/12/20, Goharan M w 6.2, 2013/5/11 and Sirch M w 5.5, 2013/1/21), the estimated values of Q c , Q p and Q s vary from 151 ± 49, 63 ± 6, and 93 ± 14 at 1.5 Hz to 1,994 ± 124, 945 ± 84 and 1,520 ± 123 at 24 Hz, respectively. The average frequency-dependent relationships ( Q  =  Q o f n ) estimated for the region are Q c  = (108 ± 10) f (0.96±0.01) , Q p  = (50 ± 5) f (1.01±0.04) , and Q s  = (75 ± 6) f (1.03±0.06) . These results evidenced a frequency dependence of the quality factors Q c , Q p , and Q s , as commonly observed in tectonically active zones characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity, and the low value of Q indicated an attenuative crust beneath the entire region.

Description: An automated short-range forecasting system, adaptive blending of observations and model (ABOM), was tested in real time during the 2010 Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in British Columbia. Data at 1-min time resolution were available from a newly established, dense network of surface observation stations. Climatological data were not available at these new stations. This, combined with output from new high-resolution numerical models, provided a unique and exciting setting to test nowcasting systems in mountainous terrain during winter weather conditions. The ABOM method blends extrapolations in time of recent local observations with numerical weather predictions (NWP) model predictions to generate short-range point forecasts of surface variables out to 6 h. The relative weights of the model forecast and the observation extrapolation are based on performance over recent history. The average performance of ABOM nowcasts during February and March 2010 was evaluated using standard scores and thresholds important for Olympic events. Significant improvements over the model forecasts alone were obtained for continuous variables such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. The small improvements to forecasts of variables such as visibility and ceiling, subject to discontinuous changes, are attributed to the persistence component of ABOM.

Description: Because conventional observations over the oceans are not available, especially during tropical cyclones, multi-spectral atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) estimated from geostationary satellites are routinely assimilated in the numerical weather prediction models at different operational centres across the globe. The derived AMVs are generally validated with radiosonde observations available over land at synoptic hours; however, over the ocean there is a limited scope to assess the quality of AMVs. Over ocean, AMVs can be validated with radiosonde data available from opportunistic ships or using dropsonde data available from aircrafts. In this study, the accuracy of the AMVs derived from the geostationary satellites Kalpana-1 and Meteosat-7 is evaluated over the oceanic region. Radiosonde data available from a ship cruise held in the Bay of Bengal during the period 09 July–08 August 2012 and from the Cal/Val site situated at Kavaratti Island (72.62°E, 10.57°N) in the southern Indian Ocean are used to assess the AMV accuracy. In this study, 83 radiosonde profiles are used to validate the Kalpana-1 AMVs, to allow a better understanding of AMV errors over the Indian Ocean. The RMSVD of Kalpana-1 AMVs for the high-, mid- and low-levels are found to be 7.9, 9.4 and 5.3 m s −1 , respectively, while the corresponding RMSVD for Meteosat-7 AMVs are 9.1, 5.5 and 3.7 m s −1 . A similar accuracy is observed when the AMVs are validated against the NCEP analyses collocated with the nearest radiosonde locations. The high RMSVD and bias for Kalpana-1 AMVs at the mid-level and Meteosat-7 AMVs at the high-level are associated with the limitation of satellite winds to resolve the upper-level easterly jet in conjunction with errors in the height assignment. This study could help the numerical modellers to assign appropriate observation error over this region during the assimilation of AMVs into the NWP models.

Description: We observe fault zone head waves (FZHW) that are generated by and propagate along a roughly 80 km section of the Hayward fault in the San Francisco Bay area. Moveout values between the arrival times of FZHW and direct P waves are used to obtain average P-wave velocity contrasts across different sections of the fault. The results are based on waveforms generated by more than 5,800 earthquakes and recorded at up to 12 stations of the Berkeley digital seismic network (BDSN) and the Northern California seismic network (NCSN). Robust identification of FZHW requires the combination of multiple techniques due to the diverse instrumentation of the BDSN and NCSN. For single-component short-period instruments, FZHW are identified by examining sets of waveforms from both sides of the fault, and finding on one (the slow) side emergent reversed-polarity arrivals before the direct P waves. For three-component broadband and strong-motion instruments, the FZHW are identified with polarization analysis that detects early arrivals from the fault direction before the regular body waves which have polarizations along the source-receiver backazimuth. The results indicate average velocity contrasts of 3–8 % along the Hayward fault, with the southwest side having faster P wave velocities in agreement with tomographic images. A systematic moveout between the FZHW and direct P waves for about a 80 km long fault section suggests a single continuous interface in the seismogenic zone over that distance. We observe some complexities near the junction with the Calaveras fault in the SE-most portion and near the city of Oakland. Regions giving rise to variable FZHW arrival times can be correlated to first order with the presence of lithological complexity such as slivers of high-velocity metamorphic serpentinized rocks and relatively distributed seismicity. The seismic velocity contrast and geological complexity have important implications for earthquake and rupture dynamics of the Hayward fault, including a statistically preferred propagation direction of earthquake ruptures to the SE.

Description: We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m  ≥ 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m  ≥ 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m  ≥ 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m  ≥ 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m  ≥ 7 earthquake.

Description: The boundary between the Pacific and North America plates along Canada’s west coast is one of the most seismically active regions of Canada, and is where Canada’s two largest instrumentally recorded earthquakes have occurred. Although this is a predominantly strike-slip transform fault boundary, there is a component of oblique convergence between the Pacific and North America plates off Haida Gwaii. The 2012 M w 7.7 Haida Gwaii earthquake was a thrust event that generated a tsunami with significant run up of over 7 m in several inlets on the west coast of Moresby Island (several over 6 m, with a maximum of 13 m). Damage from this earthquake and tsunami was minor due to the lack of population and vulnerable structures on this coast.

Description: We present a closed-form frequency-wave number ( ω  –  k ) Green’s function for a layered, elastic half-space under SH wave propagation. It is shown that for every ( ω  –  k ) pair, the fundamental solution exhibits two distinctive features: (1) the original layered system can be reduced to a system composed by the uppermost superficial layer over an equivalent half-space; (2) the fundamental solution can be partitioned into three different fundamental solutions, each one carrying out a different physical interpretation, i.e., an equivalent half-space, source image impact, and dispersive wave effect, respectively. Such an interpretation allows the proper use of analytical and numerical integration schemes, and ensures the correct assessment of Cauchy principal value integrals. Our method is based upon a stiffness-matrix scheme, and as a first approach we assume that observation points and the impulsive SH line-source are spatially located within the uppermost superficial layer. We use a discrete wave number boundary element strategy to test the benefits of our fundamental solution. We benchmark our results against reported solutions for an infinitely long circular canyon subjected to oblique incident SH waves within a homogeneous half-space. Our results show an almost exact agreement with previous studies. We further shed light on the impact of horizontal strata by examining the dynamic response of the circular canyon to oblique incident SH waves under different layered half-space configurations and incident angles. Our results show that modifications in the layering structure manifest by larger peak ground responses, and stronger spatial variability due to interactions of the canyon geometry with trapped Love waves in combination with impedance contrast effects.

Description: Two year measurements of aerosol concentration and size distribution (0.25 μm 〈  d  〈 30 μm) in the atmospheric surface layer, collected in L’Aquila (Italy) with an optical particle counter, are reported and analysed for the different modes of the particle size distribution. A different seasonal behaviour is shown for fine mode aerosols (largely produced by anthropogenic combustion), coarse mode and large-sized aerosols, whose abundance is regulated not only by anthropogenic local production, but also by remote natural sources (via large scale atmospheric transport) and by local sources of primary biogenic aerosols. The observed total abundance of large particles with diameter larger than 10 μm is compared with a statistical counting of primary biogenic particles, made with an independent technique. Results of these two observational approaches are analysed and compared to each other, with the help of a box model driven by observed meteorological parameters and validated with measurements of fine and coarse mode aerosols and of an atmospheric primary pollutant of anthropogenic origin (NO x ). Except in winter months, primary biogenic particles in the L’Aquila measurement site are shown to dominate the atmospheric boundary layer population of large aerosol particles with diameter larger than 10 μm (about 80 % of the total during summer months), with a pronounced seasonal cycle, contrary to fine mode aerosols of anthropogenic origin. In order to explain these findings, the main mechanisms controlling the abundance and variability of particulate matter tracers in the atmospheric surface layer are analysed with the numerical box-model.

Description: Ambient noise measurements performed on the western flank of Mt. Etna are analyzed to infer the occurrence of directional amplification effects in fault zones. The data were recorded along short (〈500 m) profiles crossing the Ragalna Fault System. Ambient noise records were processed to compute the horizontal-to-vertical noise spectral ratio as a function of frequency and direction of motion. Wavefield polarization was investigated in the time–frequency domain as well. Peaks of the spectral ratios generally fall in the frequency band 1.0–6.0 Hz pointing out directional amplifications that are also confirmed by the results of the time–frequency analysis, the largest amplification occurring with high angle to the fault strike. A variation of the frequency of the spectral peak is observed between the two sides of the fault, possibly related to a damage fault asymmetry. Measurements performed several kilometers away from the fault zone do not show behavior that is as systematic as in the fault zone, and this suggests that the observed directional effects can be ascribed to the fault fabric. We relate the polarization effect to compliance anisotropy in the fault zone, where the presence of predominantly oriented fractures makes the normal component of ground motion larger than the transversal one. In order to test the direction and the type of fractures that are expected in the fault zone, we modeled the brittle deformation pattern of the investigated fault. Theoretical results are in good agreement with field observations of the fracture strike.

Description: This article documents the near-field effects of the largest tsunami of 2012 (globally), which occurred following Canada’s second-largest recorded earthquake, on a thrust fault offshore western Haida Gwaii on October 28 (UTC). Despite a lack of reported damaging waves on the coast of British Columbia (largest amplitudes were recorded in Hawaii), three field surveys in the following weeks and months reveal that much of the remote unpopulated, uninstrumented coastline of western Haida Gwaii was impacted by significant tsunami waves that reached up to 13 m above the state of tide. Runup exceeded 3 m at sites spanning ~200 km of the coastline. Greatest impacts were apparent at the heads of narrow inlets and bays on western Moresby Island, where natural and manmade debris with a clear oceanward origin was found on the forest floor and caught in tree branches, inferring flow depths up to 2.5 m. Bays that see regular exposure to storm waves were generally less affected; at these sites a storm origin cannot be ruled out for the debris surveyed. Logs disturbed from their apparent former footprints on the forest floor at the head of Pocket Inlet provide evidence of complex runup, backwash and oblique flow patterns, as noted in other tsunamis. Discontinuous muddy sediments were found at a few sites; sedimentation was not proportional to runup. Lessons learned from our study of the impacts of the Haida Gwaii tsunami may prove useful to future post-tsunami and paleotsunami surveys, as well as tsunami hazard assessments.

Description: Dispersion, attenuation and wavefronts in a class of linear viscoelastic media proposed by Strick and Mainardi (Geophys J R Astr Soc 69:415–429, 1982 ) and a related class of models due to Lomnitz, Jeffreys and Strick are studied by a new method due to the author. Unlike the previously studied explicit models of relaxation modulus or creep compliance, these two classes support propagation of discontinuities. Due to an extension made by Strick, either of these two classes of models comprise both viscoelastic solids and fluids. We also discuss the Andrade viscoelastic media. The Andrade media do not support discontinuity waves and exhibit the pedestal effect.

Description: Watermarks found during the post-event surveys of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami confirmed extreme runup heights at several locations along the central to northern part of the Sanriku coast, Japan. We measured the maximum height of nearly 40 m above mean sea level at a narrow coastal valley of the Aneyoshi district. Wave records by offshore GPS-buoys suggest that the remarkably high runup was associated with a leading, impulsive crest of the tsunami amplified by local bathymetry and topography. In order to elucidate the underlying amplification mechanism, we apply a numerical model to reproduce the measured distribution of tsunami heights along the target coastline. A series of numerical tests under different boundary conditions suggests that a spectral component with a dominant period of 4–5 min in the leading wave play a key role in generating the extreme runup. Further analyses focusing on the Aneyoshi district confirm that the short wavelength component undergoes critical amplification in a narrow inlet. Our findings highlight the importance of resolving offshore waveforms as well as local bathymetry and topography when simulating extreme runup events.

Description: Besides several thematic campaigns, utilizing a variety of platforms including satellites, ground-based networks have been established to improve our understanding of the role of aerosols in the changing monsoon climate. Two such widely known networks over the globe are ‘SKYNET’ and ‘AERONET’ with sun-sky radiometers as the principal equipment that characterizes aerosols and gases over different geographical locations under varied air mass conditions. Pune (18°43′N, 73°51′E, 559 m above mean sea level), a fast growing low-latitude, urban city in India, is one of the sites where Prede (POM-01L, SKYNET) and Cimel (CE-318, AERONET) Sun-sky radiometers have been in operation since 2004. These radiometers have been extensively used in several studies related to stand-alone and coupled aerosol-cloud-climate processes. The Prede instrument at this site is being augmented for the network of the Global Atmospheric Watch program of the World Meteorological Organization to facilitate data coordination through the World Data Center for Aerosols. The present study envisages understanding the response of atmospheric constituents, through simultaneous operation of the radiometers amongst others, for the rainfall activity over Pune during two contrasting monsoon years of 2008 (active, 98 % of long period average (LPA) rainfall over the whole country) and 2009 (weak, 78 % of LPA). The synthesis of data indicates that, apart from excellent agreement between the direct Sun observations, both radiometers capture well the monsoon features within the instrument density and efficacy of data retrieval algorithms involved. The meteorological fields from the ECMWF re-analysis and NOAA-HYSPLIT air-mass back-trajectory analysis during the study period have been utilized to explain the variations observed in the radiometer products.

Description: Strike–slip faults are a defining feature of plate tectonics, yet many aspects of their development and evolution remain unresolved. For intact materials and/or regions, a standard sequence of shear development is predicted from physical models and field studies, commencing with the formation of Riedel shears and culminating with the development of a throughgoing fault. However, for materials and/or regions that contain crustal heterogeneities (normal and/or thrust faults, joints, etc.) that predate shear deformation, kinematic evolution of strike–slip faulting is poorly constrained. We present a new plane-stress finite-strain physical analog model developed to investigate primary deformation zone evolution in simple shear, pure strike–slip fault systems in which faults or joints are present before shear initiation. Experimental results suggest that preexisting mechanical discontinuities (faults and/or joints) have a marked effect on the geometry of such systems, causing deflection, lateral distribution, and suppression of shears. A lower limit is placed on shear offset necessary to produce a throughgoing fault in systems containing preexisting structures. Fault zone development observed in these experiments provides new insight for kinematic interpretation of structural data from strike–slip fault zones on Earth, Venus, and other terrestrial bodies.

Description: Seismic wave propagation shows anisotropic characteristics in many sedimentary rocks. Modern seismic exploration in mountainous areas makes it important to calculate P wave travel times in anisotropic media with irregular surfaces. The challenges in this context are mainly from two aspects. First is how to tackle the irregular surface in a Cartesian coordinate system, and the other lies in solving the anisotropic eikonal equation. Since for anisotropic media the ray (group) velocity direction is not the same as the direction of the travel-time gradient, the travel-time gradient no longer serves as an indicator of the group velocity direction in extrapolating the travel-time field. Recently, a topography-dependent eikonal equation formulated in a curvilinear coordinate system has been established, which is effective for calculating first-arrival travel times in an isotropic model with an irregular surface. Here, we extend the above equation from isotropy to transverse isotropy (TI) by formulating a topography-dependent eikonal equation in TI media in the curvilinear coordinate system, and then use a fast sweeping scheme to solve the topography-dependent anisotropic eikonal equation in the curvilinear coordinate system. Numerical experiments demonstrate the feasibility and accuracy of the scheme in calculating P wave travel times in TI models with an irregular surface.

Description: The collision zone between the Arabian and Eurasian plates is one of the most seismically active regions. Northern Iraq represents the northeastern part of the Arabian plate that has a suture zone with the Turkish and Iranian plates called the Bitlis–Zagros suture zone. The orientations of the principal stress axes can be estimated by the formal stress inversion of focal mechanism solutions. The waveform moment tensor inversion method was used to derive a focal mechanism solution of 65 earthquakes with magnitudes range from 3.5 to 5.66 in the study area. From focal mechanism solutions, the direction of slip and the orientations of the moment stress axes ( P , N , and T ) on the causative fault surface during an earthquake were determined. The dataset of the moment stress axes have been used to infer the regional principal stress axes ( σ 1 , σ 2 , and σ 3 ) by the formal stress inversion method. Two inversion methods, which are the new right dihedron and the rotational optimization methods, were used. The results show that six stress regime categories exist in the study area. However, the most common tectonic regimes are the strike-slip faulting (43.94 %), unspecified oblique faulting (27.27 %), and thrust faulting (13.64 %) regimes. In most cases, the strike-slip movement on the fault surfaces consists of left-lateral (sinistral) movement. The normal faulting is located in one small area and is due to a local tensional stress regime that develops in areas of strike-slip displacements as pull-apart basins. The directions of the horizontal stress axes show that the compressional stress regime at the Bitlis–Zagros suture zone has two directions. One is perpendicular to the suture zone near the Iraq–Iran border and the second is parallel in places as well as perpendicular in others to the suture zone near the Iraq–Turkey border. In addition, the principal stress axes in the Sinjar area near the Iraq–Syria border have a E–W direction. These results are compatible with the tectonic setting of the Arabian–Eurasian continental collision zone and the anticlockwise rotation of the Arabian plate that is evidently responsible for the strike-slip displacements on fault surfaces.

Description: We incorporate body-wave arrival time and surface-wave dispersion data into a joint inversion for three-dimensional P-wave and S-wave velocity structure of the crust surrounding the site of the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth. The contributions of the two data types to the inversion are controlled by the relative weighting of the respective equations. We find that the trade-off between fitting the two data types, controlled by the weighting, defines a clear optimal solution. Varying the weighting away from the optimal point leads to sharp increases in misfit for one data type with only modest reduction in misfit for the other data type. All the acceptable solutions yield structures with similar primary features, but the smaller-scale features change substantially. When there is a lower relative weight on the surface-wave data, it appears that the solution over-fits the body-wave data, leading to a relatively rough V s model, whereas for the optimal weighting, we obtain a relatively smooth model that is able to fit both the body-wave and surface-wave observations adequately.

Description: Post-tsunami field surveys in the Minami-Soma exclusion zone in the Fukushima Prefecture were delayed for 15 months after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. The area was subject to access restrictions until June 2012 due to high radiation levels caused by the meltdown at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant. The distribution of the measured tsunami heights is presented in combination with observed infrastructure damage. The enhanced tsunami heights in the areas along the shoreline are attributed to wave reflection, funneling and splash-up at cliffs and seawalls, as well as the increased flow resistance as the tsunami plowed through coastal pine-tree forests. Consequently, large tsunami heights exceeding 10 m were limited to areas within 500 m from the shoreline. Onshore profiles of the maximum inundation levels were dependent on inland topography: tsunami heights increased inland in steep V-shaped valleys, while decaying with inundation distance along flat coastal plains. Tsunami flood levels in the coastal plains are affected by the extent of seawall damage: coastal flood levels are higher behind completely destroyed seawalls than behind partially damaged coastal defenses. Remnant seawalls provided valuable lessons to be implemented in future designs of tenacious structures based on the Japanese concept of ‘nebari’ representing resiliency to endure tsunami overflow as the original design height is exceeded.

Description: We examine the one-dimensional direct current method in anisotropic earth formation. We derive an analytic expression of a simple, two-layered anisotropic earth model. Further, we also consider a horizontally layered anisotropic earth response with respect to the digital filter method, which yields a quasi-analytic solution over anisotropic media. These analytic and quasi-analytic solutions are useful tests for numerical codes. A two-dimensional finite difference earth model in anisotropic media is presented in order to generate a synthetic data set for a simple one-dimensional earth. Further, we propose a particle swarm optimization method for estimating the model parameters of a layered anisotropic earth model such as horizontal and vertical resistivities, and thickness. The particle swarm optimization is a naturally inspired meta-heuristic algorithm. The proposed method finds model parameters quite successfully based on synthetic and field data. However, adding 5 % Gaussian noise to the synthetic data increases the ambiguity of the value of the model parameters. For this reason, the results should be controlled by a number of statistical tests. In this study, we use probability density function within 95 % confidence interval, parameter variation of each iteration and frequency distribution of the model parameters to reduce the ambiguity. The result is promising and the proposed method can be used for evaluating one-dimensional direct current data in anisotropic media.

Description: In computational geodynamics, the Finite Element (FE) method is frequently used. The method is attractive as it easily allows employment of body-fitted deformable meshes and a true free surface boundary condition. However, when a Lagrangian mesh is used, remeshing becomes necessary at large strains to avoid numerical inaccuracies (or even wrong results) due to severely distorted elements. For this reason, the FE method is oftentimes combined with the particle-in-cell (PIC) method, where particles are introduced which track history variables and store constitutive information. This implies that the respective material properties have to be interpolated from the particles to the integration points of the finite elements. In numerical geodynamics, material parameters (in particular the viscosity) usually vary over a large range. This may be due to strongly temperature-dependent rheologies (which result in large but smooth viscosity variations) or material interfaces (which result in viscosity jumps). Here, we analyze the accuracy and convergence properties of velocity and pressure of the hybrid FE-PIC method in the presence of large viscosity variations. Standard interpolation schemes (arithmetic and harmonic) are compared to a more sophisticated interpolation scheme which is based on linear least squares interpolation for two types of elements ( $Q_1P_0$ and $Q_2P_{-1}$ ). In the case of a smooth viscosity field, the accuracy and convergence is significantly improved by the new interpolation scheme. In the presence of viscosity jumps, the order of accuracy is strongly decreased.

Description: A large horizontal loop located on the ground or carried by an aircraft are the most common sources of the transient electromagnetic method. Although topographical factors or airplane outlines make the loop of arbitrary shape, magnetic sources are generally represented as a magnetic dipole or a circular loop, which may bring about significant errors in the calculated response. In this paper, we present a method for calculating the response of a loop of arbitrary shape (for which the description can be obtained by different methods, including GPS localization) in air or on the surface of a stratified earth. The principle of reciprocity is firstly used to exchange the functions of the transmitting loop and the dipole receiver, then the response of a vertical or a horizontal magnetic dipole is calculated beforehand, and finally the line integral of the second kind is employed to get the transient response. Analytical analysis and comparisons depict that our work got very good results in many situations. Synthetic and field examples are given in the end to show the effect of loop geometry and how our method improves the precision of the EM response.

Description: We determined depth variation of the 410- and 660-km discontinuities beneath southeastern China by common-converted-point stacking of $\rm P$ -wave receiver functions of 121 permanent Chinese seismic stations. We then combined the results with seismic velocity variation to estimate temperature and water content variations in the mantle transition zone of the region. Previous tomographic studies have shown a stagnant slab in the mantle transition zone in eastern Asia that is connected to subduction of the western Pacific. Temperature variations obtained clearly outline the shape of the stagnant slab, with its western edge at 113.5 $^\circ$ E and the southern edge at 28.5 $^\circ$ N. The correlation between the location of the stagnant slab and surface tectonics suggests that the Cenozoic extension in eastern China is closely associated with the subduction of the western Pacific and its eastward migration. The water content of the stagnant slab is lower than in surrounding slabs, suggesting that the water has already been released from the subducting slab into the upper mantle.

Description: A monitoring operation conducted over more than seven years has been addressing chemical fluctuations displayed by several cool, low-discharge springs located close to the highly seismic Vrancea area (Romania). Those outflows compositions proved to be strongly controlled by binary, essentially isochemical mixing between a deep-origin brine and meteoric freshwater. By taking advantage of this particular setting, there have been constructed diagrams aimed at investigating how the groundwater-discharges Na–K–Mg geothermometric parameters fluctuated as a function of the chloride content (taken to be an estimator of the freshwater-induced dilution). We made use of the reciprocal algebraic relationships existing between the equations describing the Na–K–Mg geothermometric parameters “Na–K temperature” and “K–Mg temperature” on the one hand, and the so-called “maturity index” (MI) on the other. In an accordingly derived plot of MI against the logarithm of the chloride concentration, a series of data-points being quite uniformly off-set from the MI dilution-curve constructed for an apparently “regular” period, suggested that, episodically, all concerned springwaters were simultaneously subject to some similar changes in the controlling geochemical processes. One such modification intervened 3–4 months before the occurrence of the strongest earthquake ( $M_{\text{w}} = 5.8$ ) of the hydrochemical monitoring period. The consequently derived interpretation was that then, the numerical values of certain geothermometric coefficients were likely altered: such a process could be consistent with changes in the alkali feldspars solubility relationships, possibly in response to episodic Al–Si complexing which might develop within a hypothesised, still active, exhumation-channel.

Description: The Method of Splitting Tsunamis (MOST) model adapted by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for tsunami forecasting operations is praised for its computational efficiency, associated with the use of splitting technique. It will be shown, however, that splitting the computations between $x$ and $y$ directions results in specific sensitivity to the treatment of land–water boundary. Slight modification to the reflective boundary condition in MOST caused an appreciable difference in the results. This is demonstrated with simulations of the Tohoku-2011 tsunami from the source earthquake to Monterey Bay, California, and in southeast Alaska, followed by comparison with tide gage records. In the first case, the better representation of later waves (reflected from the coasts) by the modified model in a Pacific-wide simulation resulted in twice as long match between simulated and observed tsunami time histories at Monterey gage. In the second case, the modified model was able to propagate the tsunami wave and approach gage records at locations within narrow channels (Juneau, Ketchikan), to where MOST had difficulty propagating the wave. The modification was extended to include inundation computation. The resulting inundation algorithm (Cliffs) has been tested with the complete set of NOAA-recommended benchmark problems focused on inundation. The solutions are compared to the MOST solutions obtained with the version of the MOST model benchmarked for the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program in 2011. In two tests, Cliffs and MOST results are very close, and in another two tests, the results are somewhat different. Very different regimes of generation/disposal of water by Cliffs and MOST inundation algorithms, which supposedly affected the benchmarking results, have been discussed.

Description: This work provides a multi-temporal and spatial investigation of landslide effects in the San Fratello area (Messina province within the Sicily region, Italy), by means of C-band and X-band Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) data, integrated with in situ field checks and a crack pattern survey. The Sicily region is extensively affected by hydrogeological hazards since several landslides regularly involved local areas across time. In particular, intense and catastrophic landslide phenomena have recently occurred in the San Fratello area; the last event took place in February 2010, causing large economic damage. Thus, the need for an accurate ground motions and impacts mapping and monitoring turns out to be significantly effective, in order to better identify active unstable areas and to help proper risk-mitigation measures planning. The combined use of historical and recent C-band satellites and current X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar sensors of a new generation permits spatially and temporally detection of landslide-induced motions on a local scale and to properly provide a complete multi-temporal evaluation of their effects on the area of interest. PSI ground motion rates are cross-compared with local failures and damage of involved buildings, recently recognized by in situ observations. As a result, the analysis of landslide-induced movements over almost 20 years and the validation of radar data with manufactured crack patterns, permits one to finally achieve a complete and reliable assessment in the San Fratello test site.

Description: In this article, a study on development of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) is undertaken for seismically active regions in India. To derive the equations, the seismically active regions are divided into four units based on seismotectonic setting and geology. Due to lack of strong motion data, a stochastic finite-fault simulation method is used for generating a complete synthetic database with respect to magnitude and distance. The input parameters in the stochastic seismological model, such as site amplification and stress drop, are first derived from the past strong-motion data. A total of 236 three-component records from 62 earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from M w 3.4 to 7.8 are used to calibrate the seismological model. The obtained stress drops of these 62 events lie in between 60 and 165 bars. With the help of a large synthetic database generated from the calibrated seismological model, ground motion relations for 5 % damped spectral acceleration are obtained by regression analysis. The developed ground motion relations are compared with the existing GMPEs of the other active regions in the world. Although the proposed equations have trends similar to those of the existing relations, there are some differences attributed to stress drop and the quality factor of active regions in India. These relations will be useful to prepare spectral acceleration hazard maps of India for a given annual probability of exceedance.

Description: In a previous publication, the seismicity of Japan from 1 January 1984 to 11 March 2011 (the time of the \(M9\) Tohoku earthquake occurrence) has been analyzed in a time domain called natural time \(\chi.\) The order parameter of seismicity in this time domain is the variance of \(\chi\) weighted for normalized energy of each earthquake. It was found that the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit 15 distinct minima—deeper than a certain threshold—1 to around 3 months before the occurrence of large earthquakes that occurred in Japan during 1984–2011. Six (out of 15) of these minima were followed by all the shallow earthquakes of magnitude 7.6 or larger during the whole period studied. Here, we show that the probability to achieve the latter result by chance is of the order of \(10^{-5}\) . This conclusion is strengthened by employing also the receiver operating characteristics technique.

Description: Taiwan is one of the leading developers of earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. The Central Weather Bureau has been the primary developer of the EEW system in Taiwan since 1993. In 2010, the National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an EEW system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers. As of 2014, a total of 506 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2–3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Regions of high shaking indicated by the shalking map can indicate locations of damage and casualties and help estimate the damage incurred. The direction of earthquake ruptures are also potentially identified based on detailed shaking maps and strong motion records of the NTU system.

Description: This work focuses on the mixing between basalt and granite in a deep plutonic environment. The description of mixing patterns and measurements of fractal dimensions, and the evaluation of geochemical data from a Cambro–Ordovician granitic pluton are summarized and discussed. Different morphologic domains within the pluton reveal concentric fragmented and/or folded layers of granite in a gabbro/granite mixed matrix. This stands in contrast to two predominantly regular gabbroic regions. These regular regions are separated by tightly stretched filament areas, in which mixing is enhanced. Sharp and gradational contacts between granitic and gabbroic domains depict the interplay among frozen flows (mingling) and convection-enhanced diffusion processes (mixing). Measurements of fractal dimensions at different scales and analysis of normalized concentration variance for major elements point towards magma mixing: the compositional variability and flow patterns of the studied pluton have been greatly controlled by a natural chaotic mixing process between a granitic and a basaltic end-member. During the mixing process, coeval fractional crystallization no doubt contributed to increasing the complexity of the system. However, since flow, and therefore mixing, stops with temperature decrease, flow patterns must have retained the predominant morphology and composition of the moment at which both contrasting magmas came together and froze. Flow patterns have been preserved. With further temperature decrease, fractional crystallization took over and hybrid rocks were generated from the fractionation of magmas previously mixed in different proportions.

Description: Traditionally, traveltime tomography entails inversion of either the velocity field and the reflector geometry sequentially, or the velocity field and the hypocenter locations simultaneously or in a cascaded fashion, but seldom are all three types (velocities, geometry of reflectors, and source locations) updated simultaneously because of the compromise between the different classes of model variable and the lack of different seismic phases to constrain these variables. By using a state-of-the-art ray-tracing algorithm for the first and later arrivals combined with a popular linearized inversion solver, it is possible to simultaneously recover the three classes of model variables. In the work discussed in this paper we combined the multistage irregular shortest-path ray-tracing algorithm with a subspace inversion solver to achieve simultaneous inversion of multi-class variables, using arrival times for different phases to concurrently obtain the velocity field, the reflector shapes, and the hypocenter locations. Simulation and comparison tests for two sets of source–receiver arrangements (one the ideal case and the other an approximated real case) indicate that the combined triple-class inversion algorithm is capable of obtaining nearly the same results as the double-class affect inversion scheme (velocity and reflector geometry, or velocity and source locations) even if a lower ray density and irregular source-receiver geometry are used to simulate the real situation. In addition, the new simultaneous inversion method is not sensitive to a modest amount of picking error in the traveltime data and reasonable uncertainty in earthquake hypocenter locations, which shows it to be a feasible and promising approach in real applications.

Description: The dynamics of the planet Earth are manifestations of diverse plate tectonic processes which have been occurring since the Archean period of the Earth’s evolution and continue to deform the plate boundaries. Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) is an efficient space geodetic method that enables precise measurement of plate motion and associated deformations. We analyze here VLBI measurements made during a period of approximately three decades at five locations on the Eastern hemisphere of the globe, which are geographically distributed over five continents (plates) around the Indian Ocean. Computed rate of change of baseline length show the deformation pattern and its rate at the boundaries between the major tectonic plates constituting the Eastern hemisphere of the Earth. The African (Nubian) and Antarctic plates are moving apart at 13.5 mm/year, which is mostly attributed to spreading of the South West Indian Ridge. Similarly, spreading of 59.0 mm/year is observed for the South East Indian Ridge that separates the Antarctic and Australian plates. Shortening at the rate of 3.9 mm/year is estimated across the subduction boundary between Africa (Nubia) and Eurasia. Similar convergence is evident between the Australian and Sunda blocks (of the Eurasian plate). The associated deformation of −54.8 mm/year seems to be chiefly accommodated along the Banda arc system, where the Australian plate is subducting under the Sunda block. VLBI sites within the Eurasian plate, Wettzell in Germany, and Seshan on the South China block, are moving apart at 3.6 mm/year. This relative motion between locations on the same plate is interpreted as a result of the deformation process along a large strike–slip fault, which is identified as the Western boundary of the South China block. Expansion of the Indian Ocean, at +91.5 m 2 /year, is also estimated from the rate of deformation estimated within the five baselines studied here. From the Hurst exponent values, which are indicators of the future trend of time series data, we predict deceleration of the various tectonic processes occurring at present.

Description: In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years.

Description: QuakeSim has implemented a service-based Geographic Information System to enable users to access large amounts of Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) data through an online interface. The QuakeSim Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) profile tool calculates radar-observed displacement (from an unwrapped interferogram product) along user-specified lines. Pre-rendered thumbnails with InSAR fringe patterns are used to display interferogram and unwrapped phase images on a Google Map in the InSAR profile tool. One challenge with this tool lies in the user visually identifying regions of interest when drawing the profile line. This requires that the user correctly interpret the InSAR imagery, which currently uses fringe patterns. The mapping between pixel color and pixel value is not a one-to-one relationship from the InSAR fringe pattern, and it causes difficulty in understanding general displacement information for QuakeSim users. The goal of this work is to generate color maps that directly reflect the pixel values (displacement) as an addition to the pre-rendered images. Because of an extremely uneven distribution of pixel values on an InSAR image, a histogram-based, nonlinear color template generation algorithm is currently under development. A web service enables on-the-fly coloring of UAVSAR images with dynamically generated color templates.

Description: We constrain the source of the 27 November 1945 tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) using available tsunami waveforms recorded on tide gauges at Mumbai (India) and Karachi (Pakistan), and that inferred at Port Victoria (Seychelles), and coseismic deformation data along the Makran coast. Spectral analysis of the tsunami waveforms shows that the tsunami governing period was 40–50 min at Karachi whereas it was around 22 min at Mumbai. The inferred tsunami waveform at Port Victoria also indicated a period of around 21 min for the tsunami. Tsunami numerical simulations from the previously proposed source models failed in reproducing the observed tsunami waveforms and coseismic deformation data. Sensitivity analysis showed that the source fault needs to be extended offshore into deep water in order to reproduce the first 22-min signal at Mumbai. Based on the inversion of the observed tsunami waveforms, we propose a four-segment fault with varying slip amounts as the final source. This source includes a slip of 4.3 m onshore near Ormara (Pakistan) and a slip of 10 m offshore at water depth of around 3,000 m. The total fault length is 220 km, and the average slip is 6.1 m. This source, first, reproduces fairly well the observed tide gauge records at Mumbai and Karachi, second, produces ~1 m of uplift at Ormara and ~1 m of subsidence at Pasni, and third, gives a moment magnitude of 8.3 for the earthquake, which is in the acceptable range of seismic data. The computed 1 m uplift at Ormara is in the uplift range of 1–3 m reported in the literature. As the tide gauge stations were located in the far field, our proposed source explains mainly the tectonic source of the tsunami.

Description: The complexity and non-linearity of the morphogenetic system which is responsible for shaping the Earth’s surface have been widely recognised by many authors who have documented the fractal nature of erosion. In this paper, two peculiar kinds of landforms are compared to point out ordered structures, i.e. triangular facets that arise in different geomorphic systems, due to the principle of morphologic convergence. Occurrence of triangular facets has been documented in mountainous areas in relation to base level changes and hydrographical network evolution; similarly shaped landforms are present even in recent tectonic uplift areas along faults. The spatial distribution of the two kinds of facets has been investigated in two river basins located in Liguria (northern Italy) and in a mountainous area in Oman. The results of this analysis document the different spatial features of the two kinds of facets.

Description: The main objective of this work is to compare directional (declination and inclination) volcanic and archaeomagnetic data for the last four centuries (~1600–1990) with the historical geomagnetic predictions given by the GUFM1 model which spans from 1590 to 1990. The results show statistical agreement between archaeomagnetic data and directions given by the geomagnetic field model. However, when comparing the volcanic data with the model predictions, marked inclination shallowing is observed. This systematically lower inclination has already been observed in local palaeomagnetic studies (Italy, Mexico and Hawaii) for the 20th century, by comparing recent lava flows with the International Reference Geomagnetic Field (IGRF) model. Here, we show how this inclination shallowing is statistically present at worldwide scale for the last 400 years with mean inclination deviation around 3° lower than the historical geomagnetic field model predictions.

Description: Large earthquakes (M w  〉 6, I max  〉 VIII) occur at the Ibero-Maghrebian region, extending from a point (12ºW) southwest of Cape St. Vincent to Tunisia, with different characteristics depending on their location, which cause considerable damage and casualties. Seismic activity at this region is associated with the boundary between the lithospheric plates of Eurasia and Africa, which extends from the Azores Islands to Tunisia. The boundary at Cape St. Vincent, which has a clear oceanic nature in the westernmost part, experiences a transition from an oceanic to a continental boundary, with the interaction of the southern border of the Iberian Peninsula, the northern border of Africa, and the Alboran basin between them, corresponding to a wide area of deformation. Further to the east, the plate boundary recovers its oceanic nature following the northern coast of Algeria and Tunisia. The region has been divided into four zones with different seismic characteristics. From west to east, large earthquake occurrence, focal depth, total seismic moment tensor, and average seismic slip velocities for each zone along the region show the differences in seismic release of deformation. This must be taken into account in developing an EEWS for the region.

Description: We present the results from receiver function analysis applied to a comprehensive data set in the Eastern Alps. Teleseismic events were recorded at 70 stations with an average deployment of 1 year. The investigated area includes the eastern part of the Eastern Alps and their transition to the Bohemian Massif, the Pannonian domain, and the Southern Alps. The crustal structure at each station is examined with the Zhu-Kanamori (ZK) method, which yields well-resolved interface depths in laterally homogeneous media with limited layering. The application of the ZK technique is challenged because of the complex tectonic setting; therefore, we include additional constraints from recent active-source seismic studies. In particular, the well-known crustal P-wave velocity and, where available, the V p / V s ratio are kept fixed, thus reducing the ambiguity in determining Moho depths. Individual depth values vary strongly between adjacent stations, showing that the employment of the ZK technique in tectonically complex settings is limited. We therefore avoid interpreting the results in detail, but rather compare them to existing crustal models of the Eastern Alps. We regard this receiver function study in the easternmost part of the Alps as a documentation of a data set that has potential to be exploited in the future.

Description: NAMIDANCE tsunami simulation and visualization tool is used to create tsunami inundation maps showing quantitative maximum tsunami flow depths in Fethiye. The risk of an extreme, but likely earthquake-generated tsunami is estimated at Fethiye Bay for 14 probabilistic earthquake scenarios. The bay is located 36°39′5″N 29°7′23″E, southwestern Turkey, which has coastline to the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The tsunami simulation and inundation assessment are performed in three stages: (1) formation of a digital elevation model of the region from the best available topography/bathymetry dataset, (2) estimation of a maximum credible tsunami scenario for the region and determination of related earthquake parameters, (3) high resolution tsunami simulation and computation of near shore and overland tsunami dynamics in the study area using tsunami simulation and visualization code NAMIDANCE, (4) determination of spatial distributions of tsunami characteristics (maximum water elevations, water velocities, flow depths) under the critical tsunami condition. The results are based on the most recent descriptions of potential tsunami sources, topographic and bathymetric databases, and tsunami numerical models. We present an innovative study concentrating on preparation of quantitative flow depths and inundation maps with a very high-resolution bathymetry/topographic dataset in the eastern Mediterranean. Inundation maps will be used to analyze the effects of possible tsunamis. The presented research is crucial to raising the awareness of government officials, the public, and other stake holders about the high probability of a tsunami event in Turkey. Moreover, the results of this study will help to plan for evacuation routes, establish safe zones, and assist in preparation for the tsunami, creating public awareness, and planning evacuation routes before the actual tsunami event happens.

Description: Paleoseismic work completed at Hog Lake on the San Jacinto Fault (SJF) near Anza, California, indicates that at least 21 surface ruptures have occurred in the Anza Seismic gap over the past 4,000 years. The ages of the ruptures are constrained by 111 radiocarbon dates, 97 of which fall in stratigraphic order. The average recurrence interval for all ruptures for this period is about 185 ± 105 years, although some ruptures, such as occurred in the April 1918 earthquake, caused only minor displacement. We rate the expression of each interpreted event in each of the twelve developed field exposures presented in this work by assigning numeric values for the presence of different criteria that indicate rupture to a paleo-ground surface. Weakly expressed ruptures, for example the deformation we interpret to be the result of the historical 1918 earthquake, received low scores and are interpreted as smaller earthquakes. From this analysis, we infer that at least fifteen of the identified ruptures are indicative of large earthquakes similar to the penultimate earthquake, inferred to be the M w 7.3 22 November 1800 earthquake. The adjusted recurrence interval for large earthquakes lengthens to approximately 254 years. Comparison with the rupture history at the Mystic Lake paleoseismic site on the Claremont strand indicates that it is plausible that several of the large ruptures identified at Hog Lake could have jumped the Hemet step-over at Mystic Lake and continued on the Claremont strand (or vice versa), but most of the event ages do not match between the two sites, indicating that most ruptures do not jump the step. Finally, comparison with San Andreas Fault ruptures both to the north and south of its juncture with the SJF suggest that some northern SJF ruptures identified at Mystic Lake may correlate with events identified at Wrightwood, but that these northern ruptures have no match at Hog Lake and can not indicate rupture of the entire SJF onto the SAF.

Description: Hydraulic fracturing (fracking), using high pressures and a low viscosity fluid, allow the extraction of large quantiles of oil and gas from very low permeability shale formations. The initial production of oil and gas at depth leads to high pressures and an extensive distribution of natural fractures which reduce the pressures. With time these fractures heal, sealing the remaining oil and gas in place. High volume fracking opens the healed fractures allowing the oil and gas to flow to horizontal production wells. We model the injection process using invasion percolation. We use a 2D square lattice of bonds to model the sealed natural fractures. The bonds are assigned random strengths and the fluid, injected at a point, opens the weakest bond adjacent to the growing cluster of opened bonds. Our model exhibits burst dynamics in which the clusters extend rapidly into regions with weak bonds. We associate these bursts with the microseismic activity generated by fracking injections. A principal object of this paper is to study the role of anisotropic stress distributions. Bonds in the y -direction are assigned higher random strengths than bonds in the x -direction. We illustrate the spatial distribution of clusters and the spatial distribution of bursts (small earthquakes) for several degrees of anisotropy. The results are compared with observed distributions of microseismicity in a fracking injection. Both our bursts and the observed microseismicity satisfy Gutenberg–Richter frequency-size statistics.

Description: “Dynamic complexity” is a phenomenon observed for a nonlinearly interacting system within which multitudes of different sizes of large scale coherent structures emerge, resulting in a globally nonlinear stochastic behavior vastly different from that which could be surmised from the underlying equations of interaction. A characteristic of such nonlinear, complex phenomena is the appearance of intermittent fluctuating events with the mixing and distribution of correlated structures on all scales. We briefly review here a relatively recent method, ROMA (rank-ordered multifractal analysis), explicitly developed for analysis of the intricate details of the distribution and scaling of such types of intermittent structure. This method is then used for analysis of selected examples related to the dynamic plasmas of the cusp region of the Earth’s magnetosphere, velocity fluctuations of classical hydrodynamic turbulence, and the distribution of the structures of the cosmic gas obtained by use of large-scale, moving mesh simulations. Differences and similarities of the analyzed results among these complex systems will be contrasted and highlighted. The first two examples have direct relevance to the Earth’s environment (i.e., geoscience) and are summaries of previously reported findings. The third example, although involving phenomena with much larger spatiotemporal scales, with its highly compressible turbulent behavior and the unique simulation technique employed in generating the data, provides direct motivation for applying such analysis to studies of similar multifractal processes in extreme environments of near-Earth surroundings. These new results are both exciting and intriguing.

Description: Surface waves are essential for resolving Earth's structure on both regional and global scales, and surface wave data are mostly exploited with velocity dispersion. However, dispersion is mostly sensitive to the integral feature of velocity structure, resulting in ambiguities of the model interpretation. Recently, it has been demonstrated that the ZH amplitude ratio of a Rayleigh wave is an effective approach for providing extra constraints to reduce ambiguity in surface wave inversion. In this paper, we studied the sensitivities of the Rayleigh wave phase velocity dispersion and the ZH ratio with layered crustal structure via forward modeling. The forward modeling experiments indicate that the Rayleigh wave ZH ratio shows different sensitivity as compared to Rayleigh wave phase velocity dispersion. The ZH ratio is more sensitive to the shallower structure compared to phase velocity dispersion of the same period, and the ZH ratio provides independent constraints on the structure. Thus, the combination of these two datasets should help to better constrain the velocity model. A joint inversion tool is developed to jointly invert for the Rayleigh wave phase velocity and the ZH ratio observations. The inversion is based on a Fast Simulated Annealing algorithm, which generates models randomly and can achieve a global minimum without requiring a sensitivity kernel. Joint inversions based on synthetic datasets confirmed that the ZH ratio together with a phase velocity dispersion curve can reduce the non-uniqueness in crustal structure inversion.

Description: A wide band magnetotelluric study of the ophiolitic zone of the Zagros orogenic belt was conducted in the Neyriz area of southwestern Iran. The purpose of the study was to image subsurface structures electrically and relocate the main Zagros thrust fault in the region. The thrust fault has a complex structure with obscure behavior and is believed to be located within a zone of ongoing continental plate convergence. The fault zone with a NW–SE geological trend is parallel to the Zagros orogenic belt and separates the Neyriz ophiolite assemblage from the adjacent Sanandaj-Sirjan metamorphic zone. Magnetotelluric data were collected along a SW–NE profile across the geologic strike; the study included 18 stations and modeling was performed using a 2-D inversion scheme. Analysis of both modes of magnetotelluric data (TE and TM) clarifies the signatures of large resistivity variation in the study area. Due to the presence of a high contrast in resistivity between the ophiolites and neighboring rocks, we are able to discern two sharp boundaries as faulting planes and borders of the ophiolite–radiolarite zone in the north-eastern and southwestern parts of the 2-D resistivity models, respectively.

Description: The fault segmentation pattern and the regional stress tensor acting since the Early Quaternary in the intra-Apennine area of central Italy was constrained by integrating two large geological and seismological fault-slip data sets collected for the areas struck by the two most energetic seismic sequences of the last 15 years (Colfiorito 1997, M w 6.0 and L’Aquila 2009, M w 6.1). The integrated analysis of the earthquake fault association and the reconstruction of the 3D shape of the seismogenic sources were exploited to identify homogeneous seismogenic volumes associated with subsets of geological and focal mechanism data. The independent analysis of geological and seismological data allowed us to observe and highlight similarities between the attitude of the long-term (e.g., Quaternary) and the instantaneous present-day (seismogenic) extensional deformations and to reveal their substantial coaxiality. Coherently, with the results from the kinematic analysis, the stress field inversion also noted a prevailing tensional seismotectonic regime associated with a subhorizontal, NE–SW, minimum stress axis. A minor, very local, and shallow (〈5 km) strike-slip component of the stress field was observed in the Colfiorito sector, where an inherited N–S oriented right-lateral fault was reactivated with sinistral kinematics. Instead, an almost total absence of strike-slip solutions was observed in the L’Aquila area. These results do not agree with those indicating Quaternary regional strike-slip regimes or wide areas characterized by strike-slip deformation during the Colfiorito and L’Aquila seismic sequences.

Description: Seismic modeling of the crust with nonflat topography can be made by first-arrival traveltime tomography, which faces the challenge of an irregular free surface. A feasible way to deal with this problem consists of expanding the physical space by overlapping a low velocity layer above the irregular surface in order to have a flat topography, besides using the classical eikonal equation solver for traveltime computation. However, the undesirable consequences of this method include seismic ray deviations due to the transition from an irregular surface that is the free boundary to an inner discontinuity lying in the expanded computational space. An alternative solution, called irregular surface flattening, which involves the transformation between curvilinear and Cartesian coordinate systems, has been recently proposed through the formulation of the topography-dependent eikonal equation (TDEE) and a new solver for forward modeling of traveltimes. Based on the solution of this equation, we present topography-dependent eikonal traveltime tomography (hereafter TDETT) for seismic modeling of the upper crust. First-arrival traveltimes are calculated using the TDEE solver and the raypaths with the minimum traveltime that can be found by following the steepest traveltime gradient from the receiver to the source. By solving an algebraic equation system that connects the slowness perturbations with the already determined traveltimes, these variables can be obtained making use of the back-projection algorithm. This working scheme is evaluated through three numerical examples with different topographic complexities that are conducted from synthetic data and a fourth example with somewhat more complicated topography and real data acquired in northeastern Tibet. The comparison of the results obtained by both methods, i.e., physical space expansion above the irregular surface and irregular surface flattening, fully validates the tomography scheme that is proposed to construct seismic velocity models with nonflat topography.

Description: We studied the tsunami generated by the 1 April 2014 M w 8.2 Iquique (Chile) earthquake using 20 Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) records and applying Fourier and wavelet analyses as well as performing numerical simulations. Deep-water tsunami wave heights were in the range of 0.8–35.0 cm. For the stations located more than 2,200 km from the source, the average wave height was 1.7 ± 1.1 cm. The observed tsunami arrivals were delayed by 1–17 min relative to the simulated ones based on the linear long wave equations, and the delays were proportional to the tsunami travel distances. A small initial depression was observed at DART stations located at distances 〉10,000 km from the source whereas, traditionally, an initial elevation is expected at stations located seaward of subduction zones. Fourier analyses showed tsunami governing periods of 21.1 ± 1.7 and 14.7 ± 0.7 min, corresponding to a fault length of 60–70 km and a fault width of 40–45 km. While the two 21-min and 15-min signals appeared in most DART stations during ~0.5 h following the conventional arrival times, the 15-min signal was delayed at some far-field stations. Distribution of maximum DART wave heights across the Pacific Ocean did not show a meaningful relation between maximum DART wave heights and directivity or distance from the source.

Description: The study of the many types of natural and manmade cavities in different parts of the world is important to the fields of geology, geophysics, engineering, architectures, agriculture, heritages and landscape. Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) is a noninvasive geodetection and geolocation technique suitable for accurately determining buried structures. This technique requires knowing the propagation velocity of electromagnetic waves (EM velocity) in the medium. We propose a method for calibrating the EM velocity using the integration of laser imaging detection and ranging (LIDAR) and GPR techniques using the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) as support for geolocation. Once the EM velocity is known and the GPR profiles have been properly processed and migrated, they will also show the hidden cavities and the old hidden structures from the cellar. In this article, we present a complete study of the joint use of the GPR, LIDAR and GNSS techniques in the characterization of cavities. We apply this methodology to study underground cavities in a group of wine cellars located in Atauta (Soria, Spain). The results serve to identify construction elements that form the cavity and group of cavities or cellars. The described methodology could be applied to other shallow underground structures with surface connection, where LIDAR and GPR profiles could be joined, as, for example, in archaeological cavities, sewerage systems, drainpipes, etc.

Description: The aim of this study is to better understand how a layered basalt sequence affects the propagation of a seismic wave, which has implications for sub-basalt seismic imaging. This is achieved by the construction of detailed, realistic models of basalt sequences, using data derived directly from outcrop analogues. Field data on the surface roughness of basaltic lava flows were captured using terrestrial laser scanning and satellite remote sensing. The fractal properties of the surface roughness were derived, and it can be shown that the lava flow surface is fractal over length scales up to approximately 2 km. The fractal properties were then used to construct synthetic lava flow surfaces using a von Karman power spectrum, and the resulting surfaces were then stacked to create a synthetic lava flow sequence. P-wave velocity data were then added, and the resulting model was used to generate synthetic seismic data. The resulting stacked section shows that the ability to resolve the internal structure of the lava flows is quickly lost due to scattering and attenuation by the basalt pile. A further result from generating wide-angle data is that the appearance of a lower-velocity layer below the basalt sequence may be caused by destructive interference within the basalt itself.

Description: A new model for patchy landscapes in drylands is introduced. The model captures the dynamics of biogenic soil crusts and their mutual interactions with vegetation growth. The model is used to identify spatially uniform and spatially periodic solutions that represent different vegetation-crust states, and map them along the rainfall gradient. The results are consistent extensions of the vegetation states found in earlier models. A significant difference between the current and earlier models of patchy landscapes is found in the bistability range of vegetated and unvegetated states; the incorporation of crust dynamics shifts the onset of vegetation patterns to a higher precipitation value and increases the biomass amplitude. These results can shed new light on the involvement of biogenic crusts in desertification processes that involve vegetation loss.

Description: We estimate frequency-dependent attenuation of P and S waves in Garhwal Himalaya using the extended coda normalization method for the central frequencies 1.5, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 16 Hz, with earthquake hypocentral distance ranging from 27 to 200 km. Forty well-located local earthquake waveforms were used to study the seismic attenuation characteristics of the Garhwal Himalaya, India, as recorded by eight stations operated by Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehradun, India, from 2007 to 2012. We find frequency-dependent P and S wave quality factors as defined by the relations Q P  = 56 ± 8 f 0.91±0.002 and Q S  = 151 ± 8 f 0.84±0.002 by fitting a power-law frequency dependence model for the estimated values over the whole region. Both the Q P and Q S values indicate strong attenuation in the crust of Garhwal Himalaya. The ratio of Q S / Q P  〉 1 obtained for the entire analyzed frequency range suggests that the scattering loss is due to a random and high degree of heterogeneities in the earth medium, playing an important role in seismic wave attenuation in the Himalayan crust.

Description: This work is a study of the earthquake (Mw 6.8) that occurred on May 21, 2003 in Zemmouri–Boumerdes (Algeria) using methodology based on teleseismic data, uplift measurements, and synthetic aperture radar data. As a starting point, we fix the two source fault models obtained in this work (Solution 1: strike = 64°, dip = 50°, and rake = 97°; Solution 2: strike 256°, dip 40°, and rake = 91°) with a length of 60 km and width of 20 km to calculate the slip distribution that best explains the seismic and geodetic observations. The interferometric fringes revealed a strong displacement in the satellite direction (~53 cm) along the coast of Algeria between the cities of Boumerdes and Zemmouri. The inversion of teleseismic body waves for the two focal solution types (one plane dipping to the SE and the second plane dipping to the NW) showed distinct ruptures. However, both bilateral ruptures included two asperities, one near the hypocentre and the other at a shallower location. The maximum slip (Solution 1 = 3.8 m and Solution 2 = 4.0 m) occurred near the hypocentre in both seismic source models. The surface displacement model was obtained with Okada’s equations using the EDCMP algorithm. The three components of the displacements calculated were projected regarding the satellite direction (LOS—line-of-sight) for comparison with the interferogram. The geographic location of the fault plane was determined by comparing the uplift measurements with the vertical displacement models calculated with the source at several locations. The surface displacements calculated from these source models indicate that the model based on the SE plane and the epicentre location at 36.846°N and 3.660°E produces results closer to the interferogram and the uplift measurements.

Description: Following the devastating 11 March 2011 tsunami, two deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis (DART ® )(DART ® and the DART ® logo are registered trademarks of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, used with permission) stations were deployed in Japanese waters by the Japanese Meteorological Agency. Two weeks after deployment, on 7 December 2012, a M w 7.3 earthquake off Japan’s Pacific coastline generated a tsunami. The tsunami was recorded at the two Japanese DARTs as early as 11 min after the earthquake origin time, which set a record as the fastest tsunami detecting time at a DART station. These data, along with those recorded at other DARTs, were used to derive a tsunami source using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tsunami forecast system. The results of our analysis show that data provided by the two near-field Japanese DARTs can not only improve the forecast speed but also the forecast accuracy at the Japanese tide gauge stations. This study provides important guidelines for early detection and forecasting of local tsunamis.

Description: The spectral characteristics of anvils in tropical areas (25°S–25°N) have been investigated on the basis of data from the tropical rainfall measuring mission’s (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) and a visible and infrared scanner (VIRS), from 1998 to 2007. The anvils’ vertical structures were captured by TRMM PR and categorized into two subtypes: ice anvils with an echo base of ≥6 km and mixed anvils with an echo base between 3 and 6 km. Visible and infrared signals for the anvils, which are from reflectance at 0.63 and 1.6 μm (hereafter referred to as RF1 and RF2, respectively) and the equivalent brightness temperatures of a black body at 3.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm (hereafter referred to as TB3, TB4, and TB5, respectively), were derived simultaneously by use of TRMM VIRS. The findings reveal that the normalized frequency distribution (i.e., probability density functions, PDF) of anvil tops and bases have a bimodal distribution whereas that of anvil thickness has a single-peak curve. For visible signals, the PDF distribution of RF1 (RF2) for anvils, mixed anvils, and ice anvils has an approximately symmetric distribution with a tropics-wide averages of 0.74, 072, and 0.80 (0.21, 0.21, and 0.20), respectively. It can be concluded that ice anvils are optically thicker and contain many more ice-cloud droplets at the cloud top than mixed anvils. RF1 of anvils is usually lower over land than over ocean, by ~0.1, whereas RF2 of anvils is usually higher over land than over ocean, by ~0.3. This implies that anvil clouds have thinner optical depth and their cloud tops consist of many more small ice droplets over land than over ocean. For infrared signals, TB4 is regarded as a representative channel. The PDF distribution of TB4 for anvils and mixed anvils is broad, with tropics-wide averages of 229.2 and 232 K, respectively. They contain two peaks and the secondary peak lies at a much lower value. For ice anvils, the PDF distribution of TB4 is a single-peak curve with a tropics-wide average of 219.5 K. Mean TB4 of anvils, mixed anvils, and ice anvils is usually lower over land than over ocean, by ~3.6 K, ~1.6 K, and 5 K, respectively. In addition, land–ocean differences between RF1-to-RF2 reflectance ratios are more obvious than those between TB4 and TB5 brightness temperatures. Furthermore, these spectral signals have been proved to be a potentially useful way of revealing the presence of anvils over land and ocean, and especially for separating anvils into the mixed and ice subtypes. Finally, long-term mean values reveal that the spectral signals of anvils and of stratiform and convective precipitating clouds are indeed different, and that the difference varies with different geographical location. In real time, however, uncertainty still exists when only spectral signals are used to discriminate anvils from stratiform and convective precipitating clouds, which means active satellite observations are indispensable.

Description: This study is an attempt towards understanding the sources of long oscillations observed within the Pacific Ocean following the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake. We present evidence that extremely long modes of the Pacific Ocean in the range of 2–48 h were excited by this giant tsunami. A numerical approach was employed to calculate the basin-wide modes of the Pacific Ocean, resulting in 49 modes in the range of 2–48 h. We studied 15 tide-gauge records around the Pacific Ocean in order to extract basin-wide modes of the Pacific Ocean excited by this transoceanic tsunami. Spectral analysis of these tide-gauge records showed that some of the calculated basin-wide modes were indeed excited by the Tohoku tsunami. The observed modes ranged from 2 to 49.8 h. We attributed the long oscillations of the Pacific Ocean during the 2011 Tohoku tsunami to the excitation of these basin-wide modes, which can be grouped into global modes (15–48 h) and regional modes (2–15 h). We classified the signals on the tide gauges into three groups: (1) basin-wide modes (〉1.5 h), (2) the tsunami source periods (20–90 min), and (3) local bathymetric effects (〈20 min). The average contributions to the total tsunami energy were 6.4 % for the basin-wide mode, 64.1 % for the tsunami source, and 29.5 % for the local bathymetry, although the ratios varied from station to station. Simulations suggest that the amount of contribution of basin effects to the total tsunami energy depends on the location of the tsunami source.

Description: On 23 October 2011, a strong earthquake (M w  = 7.1) struck the Van (Eastern Turkey) region and its surrounding areas at 10:41:22 UTC (hereafter referred to as the Van earthquake), causing severe damage to the source region. Several studies have been carried out on the focal mechanism, seismic moment, focal depth and rupture model of this earthquake. However, there are still significant differences in the moment release, focal depth and slip asperities among these models. Since most of these models only used a single data set to investigate the source parameters, the reliability of these results is still a concern. In order to make clear the uncertainties and provide a reliable detailed rupture model for the mainshock, we investigated the rupture process of the Van earthquake by a joint inversion of teleseismic broadband seismograms, near-field static GPS displacement records and strong-motion data. The inversion results indicate that the mainshock was dominated by a thrust slip with a small part of a left-lateral strike-slip component below the hypocenter. The rupture initiated at a focal depth of 16 km and propagated to the surface with a relatively low average rupture velocity of ~1.8 km/s, suggesting that the major energy of the earthquake was released in a long-period band, which is the main reason why the seismic moments inverted by a long period or static signals are higher than those obtained by short-period data. Most of the slip occurred around the hypocenter with a maximum slip of more than 3.3 m, and the associated static stress drop was ~3 MPa. The total seismic moment of the whole fault was 5.76 × 10 19 N·m, and most energy was released in the first 20 s, which is in the variation range of the released rupture models. The major slip was concentrated at deeper depth and extended to a depth of around 25 km. Meanwhile, the surface rupture was quite small, which explains why only weak ruptures were observed at the surface although caused by such a strong earthquake.

Description: We investigate the geometry of the Moho interface in the southern California region including the San Andreas fault (SAF), San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), Elsinore fault (EF) and Eastern California Shear Zone with systematic analysis of receiver functions. The data set consists of 145 teleseismic events recorded at 188 broadband stations throughout the region. The analysis utilizes a 3D velocity model associated with detailed double-difference tomographic results for the seismogenic depth section around the SAF, SJFZ, and EF combined with a larger scale community model. A 3D ray tracing algorithm is used to produce effective 1D velocity models along each source-receiver teleseismic ray. Common Conversion Point (CCP) stacks are calculated using the set of velocity models extracted for each ray. The CCP stacks are analyzed with volumetric plots, maps of maximum CCP stack values, and projections along profiles that cross major faults and other features of interest. The results indicate that the Moho geometry in the study area is very complex and characterized by large prominent undulations along the NE–SW direction. A zone of relatively deep Moho (~35–40 km) with overall N–S direction crosses the SAF, SJFZ, and EF. A section of very shallow Moho (~10 km) below and to the SE of the Salton Trough, likely associated with a young oceanic crust, produces large Moho offsets at its margins. Locations with significant changes of Moho depth appear to be correlated with fault complexity in the brittle crust. The observations also show vertical Moho offsets of ~8 km across the SAF and SJFZ close to Cajon pass, and sections with no clear Moho phase underneath Cajon pass and adjacent to the SJFZ near Anza likely produced by complex local velocity structures in the brittle upper crust. These features are robust with respect to various parameters of the analysis procedure.

Description: During the last few decades, new imaging techniques like X-ray computed tomography have made available rich and detailed information of the spatial arrangement of soil constituents, usually referred to as soil structure. Mathematical morphology provides a plethora of mathematical techniques to analyze and parameterize the geometry of soil structure. They provide a guide to design the process from image analysis to the generation of synthetic models of soil structure in order to investigate key features of flow and transport phenomena in soil. In this work, we explore the ability of morphological functions built over Minkowski functionals with parallel sets of the pore space to characterize and quantify pore space geometry of columns of intact soil. These morphological functions seem to discriminate the effects on soil pore space geometry of contrasting management practices in a Mediterranean vineyard, and they provide the first step toward identifying the statistical significance of the observed differences.

Description: Significant fluctuations have been observed in Indian temperatures during past century. In order to identify the statistical periodicities in the maximum and minimum temperature data of different Indian zones, we have spectrally and statistically analyzed the homogeneous regional temperature series from the Western Himalayas, the Northern West, the North Central, the North East (NE), the West Coast, the East Coast, and the Interior Peninsula for the period of 107 years spanning over 1901–2007 using the multitaper method (MTM) and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) methods. The first SSA reconstructed the principal component of all the data sets representing a nonlinear trend (indicating a monotonic rise in temperature probably due to greenhouse gases and other forcing) that varies from region to region. We have reconstructed the temperature time series using the second to tenth oscillatory principal components of all the eight regions and computed their power spectral density using MTM. Our analyses indicate that there is a strong spectral power in the period range of 2–7 years and 53 years, which are matched respectively with the known El Niño–Southern oscillation (ENSO) periods and ocean circulation cycles. Further, the spectral analysis also revealed a statistically significant but riven cycle in a period range of 9.8–13 years corresponding to the Schwabe cycle in all Indiaian maximum and minimum temperature records and almost all the zonal records except in the NE data. In some of the cases, the 22 year double sunspot (Hale cycle) cycle was also identified here. Invariably the splitting of spectral peaks corresponding to solar signal indicated nonlinear characteristics of the data and; therefore, even small variations in the solar output may help in catalyzing the coupled El Niño-atmospheric ENSO cycles by altering the solar heat input to the oceans. We, therefore, conclude that the Indian temperature variability is probably driven by the nonlinear coupling of ENSO and solar activity.

Description: The spontaneous generation of brittle rock damage near and behind the tip of a propagating rupture can produce dynamic feedback mechanisms that modify significantly the rupture properties, seismic radiation, and generated fault zone structure. In this work, we study such feedback mechanisms for single rupture events and their consequences for earthquake physics and various possible observations. This is done through numerical simulations of in-plane dynamic ruptures on a frictional fault with bulk behavior governed by a brittle damage rheology that incorporates reduction of elastic moduli in off-fault yielding regions. The model simulations produce several features that modify key properties of the ruptures, local wave propagation, and fault zone damage. These include (1) dynamic generation of near-fault regions with lower elastic properties, (2) dynamic changes of normal stress on the fault, (3) rupture transition from crack-like to a detached pulse, (4) emergence of a rupture mode consisting of a train of pulses, (5) quasi-periodic modulation of slip rate on the fault, and (6) asymmetric near-fault ground motion with higher amplitude and longer duration on the side with reduced elastic moduli. The results can have significant implications to multiple topics ranging from rupture directivity and local amplification of seismic motion to near-fault tremor-like signals.

Description: This paper presents application of satellite interferometric methods (persistent scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture radar (PSInSAR™) and differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR)) for observation of ground deformation in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB) in Southern Poland. The presented results were obtained during the DORIS project (EC FP 7, Grant Agreement n. 242212, www.doris-project.eu ). Several InSAR datasets for this area were analysed. Most of them were processed by Tele-Rilevamento Europa - T.R.E. s.r.l. Italy. Datasets came from different SAR satellites (ERS 1 and 2, Envisat, ALOS- PALSAR and TerraSAR-X) and cover three different SAR bands (L, C and X). They were processed using both InSAR techniques: DInSAR, where deformations are presented as interferometric fringes on the raster image, and PSInSAR, where motion is indentified on irregular set of persistent scatterer (PS) points. Archival data from the C-band European Space Agency satellites ERS and ENVISAT provided information about ground movement since 1992 until 2010 in two separate datasets (1992–2000 and 2003–2010). Two coal mines were selected as examples of ground motion within inactive mining areas: Sosnowiec and Saturn, where mining ceased in 1995 and 1997, respectively. Despite well pumping after closure of the mines, groundwater rose several dozen meters, returning to its natural horizon. Small surface uplift clearly indicated on satellite interferometric data is related to high permeability of the hydrogeological subregion and insufficient water withdrawal from abandoned mines. The older 1992–2000 PSInSAR dataset indicates values of ground motion ranging from –40.0 to 0.0 mm. The newer 2003–2010 dataset shows values ranging from –2.0 to +7.0 mm. This means that during this period of time subsidence was less and uplift greater in comparison to the older dataset. This is even more evident in the time series of randomly selected PS points from both coal mines. The presence of bentonite deposits in the Saturn coal mine can also have influence on the ground surface uplift. Analysis of interferometric L and X-band data in Upper Silesia has enabled observation and monitoring of the underground mining front for several months. It was indicated by the example from the Halemba–Wirek coal mine. Analysis of the TerraSAR–X dataset processed by SqueeSAR algorithms proved to be the most effective for this purpose. X-band persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) time series can help to indentify small seemingly negligible movements and are successfully supplemented by fringes when displacement becomes significant. Differential interferograms from the L-band dataset detect similar displacement values but, thanks to longer wavelength, are characterized by better coherence, especially in the middle of the subsidence trough. Results on ground deformation proved that ground motion above abandoned mines continues long after their closure. Therefore, existing regulations stating that abandoned mines are considered fully safe five years after mine closure should change. Moreover, it should be emphasised that construction in these areas should be avoided due to existing potential risks.

Description: Currently, GPS and InSAR measurements are used to monitor deformation produced by slip on earthquake faults. It has been suggested that another method to accomplish many of the same objectives would be through satellite-based gravity measurements. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has shown that it is possible to make detailed gravity measurements from space for climate dynamics and other purposes. To build the groundwork for a more advanced satellite-based gravity survey, we must estimate the level of accuracy needed for precise estimation of fault slip in earthquakes. We turn to numerical simulations of earthquake fault systems and use these to estimate gravity changes. The current generation of Virtual California (VC) simulates faults of any orientation, dip, and rake. In this work, we discuss these computations and the implications they have for accuracies needed for a dedicated gravity monitoring mission. Preliminary results are in agreement with previous results calculated from an older and simpler version of VC. Computed gravity changes are in the range of tens of μGal over distances up to a few hundred kilometers, near the detection threshold for GRACE.

Description: We present evidence for ancient seismicity in the form of tectonic pseudotachylyte and coeval, cyclic hydrothermal alteration, and cataclasis along fault zones exhumed from 2.4 to 6.0 km in the central Sierra Nevada, CA. The Glacier Lakes fault (GLF) and Granite Pass fault (GPF) are exhumed left-lateral to left-lateral oblique, strike-slip faults with up to 125 m of left-lateral separation exposed in Mesozoic granite and granodiorite plutons. Precipitation of epidote along fault slip-surfaces, chloritization of biotite, saussurite and sericite alteration of plagioclase, and quartz- and-calcite filled veins are present in the GLF and GPF zones. One difficulty encountered in studying exhumed fault zones is providing convincing evidence for a frictional melt origin of pseudotachylyte. Rocks in the field may preserve convincing evidence for frictional melt (i.e., aphanitic, dark, injection structures) that are later shown to be related to cataclasis or injection of hydrothermal fluids. Another challenge results from the low preservation potential of several of the microscopic features that are convincing evidence of a frictional melt origin (microlites, amygdules, and glassy matrix). Here we test the usefulness of grain shape and nearest neighbor distribution analysis of pseudotachylyte and cataclasites from the GLF and GPF to discriminate between these fault rocks and to determine a frictional melt origin for pseudotachylyte. Fabric analyses of the clasts within the pseudotachylytes examined are more circular and exhibit a random nearest neighbor clast distribution relative to adjacent cataclasites. With increased comminution and melting the mean clast circularity increases and the nearest neighbor distances approach a random distribution. We conclude that this observed pattern can be applied to other fault zones as an indicator of a frictional melt origin for fault-related rocks. Mutually cross-cutting zones of hydrothermal alteration and calcite deformation twins constrain the ambient temperature conditions in the fault zone to between 170 and 320 °C during pseudotachylyte formation. Based on previous thermochronologic studies, the temperature conditions of the country rock during faulting were between 110 and 220 °C. The overlapping to elevated temperatures in the fault zone can be explained by: (1) infiltration of hydrothermal fluids into the fault zone; or (2) residual elevated temperatures as a result of frictional heating in the fault zone during seismic slip.

Description: The ability to measure, predict, and compute tsunami flow velocities is of importance in risk assessment and hazard mitigation. Substantial damage can be done by high velocity flows, particularly in harbors and bays, even when the wave height is small. Moreover, advancing the study of sediment transport and tsunami deposits depends on the accurate interpretation and modeling of tsunami flow velocities and accelerations. Until recently, few direct measurements of tsunami velocities existed to compare with model results. During the 11 March 2011 Tohoku Tsunami, 328 current meters were in place around the Hawaiian Islands, USA, that captured time series of water velocity in 18 locations, in both harbors and deep channels, at a series of depths. We compare several of these velocity records against numerical simulations performed using the GeoClaw numerical tsunami model, based on solving the depth-averaged shallow water equations with adaptive mesh refinement, to confirm that this model can accurately predict velocities at nearshore locations. Model results demonstrate tsunami current velocity is more spatially variable than waveform or height and, therefore, may be a more sensitive variable for model validation.

Description: Ambient seismic noise has traditionally been regarded as an unwanted perturbation that “contaminates” earthquake data. Over the last decade, however, it has been shown that consistent information about subsurface structure can be extracted from ambient seismic noise. By cross-correlation of noise simultaneously recorded at two seismic stations, the empirical Green’s function for the propagating medium between them can be reconstructed. Moreover, for periods less than 30 s the seismic spectrum of ambient noise is dominated by microseismic energy and, because microseismic energy travels mostly as surface-waves, the reconstruction of the empirical Green’s function is usually proportional to the surface-wave portion of the seismic wavefield. In this paper, we present 333 empirical Green’s functions obtained from stacked cross-correlations of one month of vertical component ambient seismic noise for different pairs of seismic stations in the Borborema Province of NE Brazil. The empirical Green’s functions show that the signal obtained is dominated by Rayleigh waves and that dispersion velocities can be measured reliably for periods between 5 and 20 s. The study includes permanent stations from a monitoring seismic network and temporary stations from past passive experiments in the region, resulting in a combined network of 34 stations separated by distances between approximately 40 and 1,287 km. Fundamental-mode group velocities were obtained for all station pairs and then tomographically inverted to produce maps of group velocity variation. For short periods (5–10 s) the tomographic maps correlate well with surface geology, with slow velocities delineating the main rift basins (Potiguar, Tucano, and Recôncavo) and fast velocities delineating the location of the Precambrian São Francisco craton and the Rio Grande do Norte domain. For longer periods (15–20 s) most of the velocity anomalies fade away, and only those associated with the deep Tucano basin and the São Francisco craton remain. The fading of the Rio Grande do Norte domain fast-velocity anomaly suggests this is a supracrustal structure rather than a lithospheric terrain, and places new constraints on the Precambrian evolution of the Borborema Province.

Description: The French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT) has been in operation since 2012. It is contributing to the North-eastern and Mediterranean (NEAM) tsunami warning and mitigation system coordinated by the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, and benefits from data exchange with several foreign institutes. This center is supported by the French Government and provides French civil-protection authorities and member states of the NEAM region with relevant messages for assessing potential tsunami risk when an earthquake has occurred in the Western Mediterranean sea or the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean. To achieve its objectives, CENALT has developed a series of innovative techniques based on recent research results in seismology for early tsunami warning, monitoring of sea level variations and detection capability, and effective numerical computation of ongoing tsunamis.

Description: The source region of the catastrophic Tohoku tsunami of 11 March 2011 was not far from the Russian Far East coast. The Sakhalin Tsunami Warning Center at Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk issued an Alert for threatened coasts of the Kuril Islands and Kamchatka; the observed tsunami heights were up to 2–2.5 m along the Pacific coast of the Kuril Islands. The tsunami was clearly recorded by a number of coastal tide gauges and by deep-ocean bottom pressure stations located in the vicinity of the Kuril Islands, as well as by the Russian open-ocean DART station 21401, located eastward from the South Kuril Islands. The data from other DART stations, in particular those located near Japan and the Aleutian Islands, were used for comparison. The records from these instruments were used to estimate the major characteristics of the tsunami waves, including arrival times, maximum heights, durations of the signal and main wavelength periods, as well as for comparison with the results of numerical modelling. In contrast to deep-sea stations where the first waves were the highest, at Russian coastal sites the highest waves occurred several hours after the arrival of the first tsunami wave. Further analysis indicated significant differences in spectral characteristics of tsunami waves propagating eastward toward North America and those directed in the northeast direction towards the Russian Far East. The main peaks of the eastward propagating tsunami waves were relatively high-frequency (periods ranging from 6–8 to 15–20 min), while those propagating in the northeast direction were mainly low-frequency (ranging from 25–40 to 60–80 min). Additionally, pronounced spectral peaks with similar long periods were found in the “middle-field” records at Hanasaki (on the northeastern coast of Hokkaido Island), at Yuzhno-Kurilsk (Kunashir Island) and at Malokurilsk (Shikotan Island). At remote stations, the resonant periods associated with local topographic features were predominant in the spectra.

Description: With this volume of the Pure and Applied Geophysics (PAGEOPH) topical issue “Tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean: 2011–2012”, we are pleased to present 21 new papers discussing tsunami events occurring in this two-year span. Owing to the profound impact resulting from the unique crossover of a natural and nuclear disaster, research into the 11 March 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake and tsunami continues; here we present 12 papers related to this event. Three papers report on detailed field survey results and updated analyses of the wave dynamics based on these surveys. Two papers explore the effects of the Tohoku tsunami on the coast of Russia. Three papers discuss the tsunami source mechanism, and four papers deal with tsunami hydrodynamics in the far field or over the wider Pacific basin. In addition, a series of five papers presents studies of four new tsunami and earthquake events occurring over this time period. This includes tsunamis in El Salvador, the Philippines, Japan and the west coast of British Columbia, Canada. Finally, we present four new papers on tsunami science, including discussions on tsunami event duration, tsunami wave amplitude, tsunami energy and tsunami recurrence.

Description: Seismotectonic studies of the 2008 Storfjorden aftershock sequence were limited to data acquired by the permanent, but sparse, regional seismic network in the Svalbard archipelago. Storfjorden’s remote location and harsh polar environment inhibited deployment of temporary seismometers that would have improved observations of sequence events. The lack of good station coverage prevented the detection and computation of hypocenter locations of many low magnitude events (mb 〈 2.5) in the NORSAR analyst-reviewed bulletin. As a result, the fine structure of the sequence’s space–time distribution was not captured. In this study, an autonomous event detection and clustering framework is employed to build a more complete catalog of Storfjorden events using data from the Spitsbergen (SPITS) array. The new catalog allows the spatiotemporal distribution of seismicity within the fjord to be studied in greater detail. Information regarding the location of active event clusters provides a means of inferring the tectonic structure within the fault zone. The distribution of active clusters and moment tensor solutions for the Storfjorden sequence suggests there are at least two different structures within the fjord: a NE-SW trending linear feature with oblique-normal to strike-slip faulting and E-W trending normal faults.

Description: The Erzurum-Horasan-Pasinler basin, which surrounds Miocene rocks, is oriented approximately E–W and is located in Eastern Anatolia (Türkiye). East Anatolia, where ophiolitic and young volcanic rocks are widespread, is situated in the Alpine–Himalayan fold-thrust fault belt. The NW–SE trending North Anatolian Transform Fault Zone and the NE–SW trending East Anatolian Transform Fault Zone, formed by the compressional regime of East Anatolia, control the main tectonics of the study region. While the Moho and Conrad depths of the study region are 43.0 and 20.9 km, respectively, the average sedimentary thickness has been determined to be 5.2 km by using the power spectrum method. On the other hand, it is found that the depth of the Moho in the region varies from 41.0 to 44.5 km and the depth of the Conrad discontinuity varies between 22 and 26 km, as computed using empirical equations. The basement of the sedimentary layer is calculated to be 6 km by using inversion results applied to the residual gravity data. The Curie point depth and average heat flow value in this region are calculated as 18.0 km and 89.1 m Wm −2 , respectively. Geotherm calculations reveal that the Moho temperature is 1,028.0 °C based on the crustal model. The high heat flow values obtained are attributed to tectonic activities and melting of the lithospheric mantle caused by upwelling of the asthenosphere.

Description: We investigated the Campi Flegrei caldera using a quantitative approach to retrieve the spatial and temporal variations of the stress field. For this aim we applied a joint inversion of geodetic and seismological data to a dataset of 1,100 optical levelling measurements and 222 focal mechanisms, recorded during the bradyseismic crisis of 1982–1984. The inversion of the geodetic dataset alone, shows that the observed ground deformation is compatible with a source consisting of a planar crack, located at the centre of the caldera at a depth of about 2.56 km and a size of about 4 × 4 km. Inversion of focal mechanisms using both analytical and graphical approaches, has shown that the key features of the stress field in the area are: a nearly subvertical σ 1 and a sub-horizontal, roughly NNE-SSW trending σ 3 . Unfortunately, the modelling of the stress fields based only upon the retrieved ground deformation source is not able to fully account for the stress pattern delineated by focal mechanism inversion. The introduction of an additional regional background field has been necessary. This field has been determined by minimizing the difference between observed slip vectors for each focal mechanism and the theoretical maximum shear stress deriving from both the volcanic (time-varying) and the regional (constant) field. The latter is responsible for a weak NNE-SSW extension, which is consistent with the field determined for the nearby Mt. Vesuvius volcano. The proposed approach accurately models observations and provides interesting hints to better understand the dynamics of the volcanic unrest and seismogenic processes at Campi Flegrei caldera. This procedure could be applied to other volcanoes experiencing active ground deformation and seismicity.

Description: The south of the Iberian Peninsula is situated at the convergence of the Eurasian and African plates. This region experiences large earthquakes with long separation in time, the best known of which was the great 1755 Lisbon Earthquake, which occurred SW of San Vicente Cape (SW Iberian Peninsula). The high risk of damaging earthquakes has recently led Carranza et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 2013 ) to investigate the feasibility of an EEWS in this region. Analysis of the geometry for the Iberian seismic networks and the San Vicente Cape area led the authors to conclude that a threshold-based approach, which would not require real-time location of the earthquake, might be the best option for an EEWS in SW Iberia. In this work we investigate this hypothesis and propose a new EEW approach that extends standard P-wave threshold-based single-station analysis to the whole network. The proposed method enables real-time estimation of the potential damage at stations that are triggered by P-waves and those which are not triggered, with the advantage of greater lead-times for release of alerts. Results of tests made with synthetic data mimicking the scenario of the great 1755 Lisbon Earthquake, and those conducted by applying the new approach to available recordings, indicate that an EEW estimation of the potential damage associated with an event in the San Vicente Cape area can be obtained for a very large part of the Iberian Peninsula.

Description: We present jointly inverted models of P-wave velocity (Vp) and electrical resistivity for a two-dimensional profile centered on the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD). Significant structural similarity between main features of the separately inverted Vp and resistivity models is exploited by carrying out a joint inversion of the two datasets using the normalized cross-gradient constraint. This constraint favors structurally similar Vp and resistivity images that adequately fit the seismic and magnetotelluric (MT) datasets. The new inversion code, tomoDDMT, merges the seismic inversion code tomoDD and the forward modeling and sensitivity kernel subroutines of the MT inversion code OCCAM2DMT. TomoDDMT is tested on a synthetic dataset and demonstrates the code’s ability to more accurately resolve features of the input synthetic structure relative to the separately inverted resistivity and velocity models. Using tomoDDMT, we are able to resolve a number of key issues raised during drilling at SAFOD. We are able to infer the distribution of several geologic units including the Salinian granitoids, the Great Valley sequence, and the Franciscan Formation. The distribution and transport of fluids at both shallow and great depths is also examined. Low values of velocity/resistivity attributed to a feature known as the Eastern Conductor (EC) can be explained in two ways: the EC is a brine-filled, high porosity region, or this region is composed largely of clay-rich shales of the Franciscan. The Eastern Wall, which lies immediately adjacent to the EC, is unlikely to be a fluid pathway into the San Andreas Fault’s seismogenic zone due to its observed higher resistivity and velocity values.

Description: This study addresses the problem of incorporating moist processes (resolving the grid scale and parameterizing the subgrid scale) at resolutions of 9 and 3 km with double- and triple-nested domains, respectively, in predicting the track and intensity of four cases of weaker tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean. The sensitivity experiments are carried out with three convective parameterization schemes, and the results are evaluated based on the track and intensity of cyclones. The Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme shows the most reasonable representation of track and intensity and therefore is used for all sensitivity experiments related to microphysical schemes in two and three domains. Three sets of microphysics sensitivity experiments are carried out: The first set includes experiments with parameterized moist convection (referred to as the 9-km experiment) in two domains (27 and 9 km). The second and third sets of simulation experiments are carried out at 9 km in two domains (27 and 9 km; referred to as the 9-km-noCP) and at 3 km in three domains (27 km, 9 km and 3 km; referred to as the 3-km experiment), respectively, by resolving the grid-scale convection explicitly with the four bulk microphysical schemes. The explicit moist convection treatment at 9- and 3-km resolution produces a better cyclone simulation than the parameterized convection at 9-km resolution. The latent heat released in the generation of hydrometeors such as snow and graupel in the mid-tropospheric levels appears to influence the heating within the inner core of the cyclone. The comparable and more realistic representation of mid-tropospheric heating is possibly one of the main reasons behind the improvement at 9-km-noCP and 3 km. The stronger vertical advection of moist static energy gives well-organized mesoscale convection within the cyclone environment at 9-km-noCP and 3-km resolution. This study therefore demonstrates the importance of microphysical processes in the simulation of weaker TC over the North Indian Ocean.