ALBERT

Description: Fleas (Insecta: Siphonaptera) are hematophagous ectoparasites that feed on vertebrate hosts. Fleas can reduce the fitness of hosts by interfering with immune responses, disrupting adaptive behaviors, and transmitting pathogens. The negative effects of fleas on hosts are usually most pronounced when fleas attain high densities. In lab studies, fleas desiccate and die under dry conditions, suggesting that populations of fleas will tend to decline when precipitation is scarce under natural conditions. To test this hypothesis, we compared precipitation vs. parasitism of black-tailed prairie dogs ( Cynomys ludovicianus ) by fleas at a single colony during May and June of 13 consecutive years (1976–1988) at Wind Cave National Park, South Dakota, USA. The number of fleas on prairie dogs decreased with increasing precipitation during both the prior growing season (April through August of the prior year) and the just-completed winter–spring (January through April of current year). Due to the reduction in available moisture and palatable forage in dry years, herbivorous prairie dogs might have been food-limited, with weakened behavioral and immunological defenses against fleas. In support of this hypothesis, adult prairie dogs of low mass harbored more fleas than heavier adults. Our results have implications for the spread of plague, an introduced bacterial disease, transmitted by fleas, that devastates prairie dog colonies and, in doing so, can transform grassland ecosystems.

Description: Foundation species provide many important ecosystem functions including the provision of habitat for diverse communities, but their degradation and mortality has the potential to compromise these roles. Corals are widely recognized foundation species that create reef habitats that are hotspots for biodiversity. However, the impact of global reef degradation on overall patterns of biodiversity remains difficult to predict because of our limited knowledge of mechanistic relationships between reef structure and community composition. We examined the resilience of invertebrate abundance and biodiversity on reefs following a recent coral mass mortality event on the Caribbean coast of Panama. First, we surveyed mobile invertebrate communities at both healthy and degraded reef sites and found that dead coral habitats support invertebrate assemblages that can be more diverse and abundant than live coral habitats and that coral habitat (whether live or dead) in turn supports higher diversity and abundance than structurally simple sand areas without coral. Second, we experimentally tested mechanisms of reef habitat suitability for invertebrate colonization by manipulating coral mortality and structural complexity. We found that the abundance and species richness of mobile invertebrates were significantly affected by substrate complexity rather than whether coral was live or dead. However, we detected shifts in species identity between live and dead coral. Moreover, the sensitivity of the community to reef structural complexity indicates that the ability of degraded coral reefs to sustain invertebrate assemblages is unlikely to persist if declines in reef complexity outpace recovery of living corals to the reef. Our findings suggest that the biodiversity-sustaining function of reefs has the potential to persist following coral disturbance at the scale of entire reefs and that some metrics of community structure are therefore resilient to events of foundation species mortality.

Description: We remeasured a classic chronosequence study in the subalpine zone of the Alaska Range to evaluate how plant community attributes have changed across a set of different-aged terraces over a 54-yr period (1958–2012). Our work focused on whether the tempo and trajectory of successional development described in the original study have changed over this period during which summer temperatures warmed by approximately 2°C. Our work revealed a rapid increase in the distribution, stature, and abundance of balsam poplar trees that was unanticipated in the original successional model alongside evidence that established late-successional plant communities have changed relatively little over the same time period. The spatial distribution of poplar expansion was both directional and highly variable, with greater expansion occurring in sites that were young surfaces in 1958, or else were disturbed during the intervening period. We present evidence that early successional environments in this region may be particularly susceptible to rapid alteration stimulated by climate warming that has allowed tree establishment and growth in subalpine areas. Sparsely vegetated sites allow for invasion or expansion of some species to be quickly realized because there is less resistance from competition with established vegetation, including mosses that insulate and paludify the soil. We suggest that established vegetation communities may have physical characteristics (such as cold and/or acidic soil profiles) that are inimical to the establishment of balsam poplar and may also be a source of competitive inertia, conferring a measure of resistance to directional changes in the landscape mosaic. However, when an early successional species has traits that allow it to persist and fundamentally alter the vegetation mosaic over time, as is the case with balsam poplar, it may serve as the leading edge of compositional changes with profound consequences. Our results highlight the capacity of a single species to catalyze the changes that may eventually lead to the altering of an entire landscape mosaic.

Description: Herbivory is thought to be nutritionally inefficient relative to carnivory and omnivory, but herbivory evolved from carnivory in many terrestrial and aquatic lineages, suggesting that there are advantages of eating plants. Herbivory has been well-studied in both terrestrial and aquatic systems, and there is abundant information on feedbacks between herbivores and plants, coevolution of plant and herbivore defenses, mechanisms for mediating nutrient limitation, effects of nutrient limitation on herbivore life history, and, more recently, the origins of the herbivorous diet. Researchers have sufficiently defined the ecological context and evolutionary origins of the herbivorous diet, and these main areas of research have laid the groundwork for studying herbivory as an adaptation. However, we have yet to synthesize this information in a way that allows us to establish a framework of testable adaptive hypotheses. To understand the adaptive significance of this diet transition, we review the current literature and use evidence from these works as support for five hypotheses on the evolution of herbivory from carnivory: (1) intake efficiency—herbivores use part of their food source as habitat, thus minimizing the energy/time spent searching for food and avoiding predators; (2) suboptimal habitat—herbivory allows organisms to invade and establish populations in habitats that have high primary production but low abundance of animal prey; (3) heterotroph facilitation—herbivory is adaptive because herbivores consume microbes associated with producers; (4) lipid allocation—herbivory is adaptive because producers are rich in fatty acids, which fuel reproduction and storage; and (5) disease avoidance—herbivory minimizes animal-facilitated disease transmission. Due to the extensive literature, we have limited this review to discussing herbivory in freshwater systems. To our knowledge, no prior work has compiled a comprehensive list of conditions that favor an herbivorous diet in nature. With backgrounds in both theoretical and experimental ecology, the incorporation of these hypotheses to the current literature will provide information about diet evolution, where it is currently lacking.

Description: The Allee effect is a theoretical model predicting low growth rates and the possible extinction of small populations. Historically, studies of the Allee effect have focused on demography. As a result, underlying processes other than the direct effect of population density on fitness components are not generally taken into account. There has been heated debate about the potential of genetic processes to drive small populations to extinction, but recent studies have shown that such processes clearly impact small populations over short time scales, and some may generate Allee effects. However, as opposed to the ecological Allee effect, which is underpinned by cooperative interactions between individuals, genetically driven Allee effects require a change in genetic structure to link the decline in population size with a decrease in fitness components. We therefore define the genetic Allee effect as a two-step process whereby a decrease in population size leads to a change in population genetic structure and, in turn, to a decrease in individual fitness. We describe potential underlying mechanisms and review the evidence for this original type of component Allee effect, using published examples from both plants and animals. The possibility of considering demogenetic feedback in light of genetic Allee effects clarifies the analysis and interpretation of demographic and genetic processes, and the interplay between them, in small populations.

Description: Orbicella annularis and O. faveolata , found in the Florida Keys, are major framework-building corals. Kemp et al. (Volume 7, Issue 6, Article e01373) found that inshore populations of these corals were severely impacted by a 2010 cold weather anomaly that caused local mortality on several local reefs. Photo credit: Dustin Kemp.

Description: The interaction between predators and their prey is a key factor driving population dynamics and shaping wildlife communities. Most predators will scavenge in addition to killing their own prey, which alters predation effects and implies that one cannot treat these as independent processes. However, the relative importance of predation vs. scavenging and the mechanisms driving variation of such are relatively unstudied in ecological research on predator–prey relationships. Foraging decisions in facultative predators are likely to respond to environmental conditions (e.g., seasonality) and inter- or intraspecific interactions (e.g., prey availability, presence of top predators, scavenging competition). Using data on 41 GPS-collared wolverines ( Gulo gulo ) during 2401 monitoring days, in four study sites in Scandinavia, we studied variation in diet and feeding strategies (predation vs. scavenging), along a gradient of environmental productivity, seasonality, density, and body mass of their main prey, semidomestic reindeer ( Rangifer tarandus ). The most important factor affecting the relative extent of predation and scavenging was mean prey body mass. Predation was more pronounced in summer, when vulnerable reindeer calves are abundant, and individual kill rates were negatively related to local reindeer body mass. This relationship was absent in winter. The probability of scavenging was higher in winter and increased with decreasing local reindeer body mass, likely as a response to increased carrion supply. Wolverine feeding strategy was further influenced by predictable anthropogenic food resources (e.g., slaughter remains from hunted ungulates) and the presence of a top predator, Eurasian lynx ( Lynx lynx ), which provided a continuous carrion supply promoting scavenging. Our results suggest that wolverine feeding strategies are flexible and strongly influenced by seasonally dependent responses to prey body condition in combination with carrion supply. This study demonstrates that large-scale environmental variation can result in contrasting predator feeding strategies, strongly affecting trophic interactions and potentially shaping the dynamics of ecological communities.

Description: State indicators, e.g., mean size and trophic level of the fish assemblage, can provide important insights into the effects of fishing on ecosystems and the resource potential of the fishery. On coral reefs, few studies have examined the relative effects of fishing and other drivers, such as habitat, on these indicators. In light of habitat heterogeneity and increasing habitat degradation, this lack of understanding limits the usefulness of indicators for monitoring the effect of fishery management actions. Identifying thresholds or nonlinearities in relationships between fishing pressure and state indicators has been suggested as a basis for biomass-based targets to support management efforts in low research capacity contexts. Using data collected in Seychelles, we examined the relative influences of fishable biomass (proxy for fishing pressure) and the benthic habitat on fisheries-independent indicators characterizing attributes of the fish community important for fisheries production. We characterized the driver–indicator relationships, and compared local-scale relationships for Seychelles with large-scale relationships published for the Indian Ocean. We found that both habitat and fishing pressure influenced indicators, but habitat effects were particularly strong. This knowledge provides managers with the capacity to implement a diverse array of complementary management actions targeting these drivers. A number of the Seychelles scale driver–indicator relationships were linear, suggesting gradual changes in indicators in response to changes to drivers. This contrasted with relationships published for the Indian Ocean, which were characterized by thresholds below which exploitation is likely to have significant detrimental effects on the functioning of important ecosystem processes. These scale-specific differences are likely driven by the narrower range of fishing pressures found in Seychelles. Importantly, it indicates that, although biomass-based targets derived from large-scale relationships may provide a useful starting point for setting management targets, the local context must be considered.

Description: Over the last decade, western North America has experienced the largest mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) outbreak in recorded history, and Rocky Mountain forests have been severely impacted. Although bark beetles are indigenous to North American forests, climate change has facilitated the beetle's expansion into previously unsuitable habitats. We used three correlative niche models (maximum entropy [MaxEnt], boosted regression trees, and generalized linear models) to estimate (1) the current potential distribution of the beetle in the U.S. Rocky Mountain region, (2) how this distribution has changed since historical outbreaks in the 1960s and 1970s, and (3) how the distribution may be expected to change under future climate scenarios. Additionally, we evaluated the temporal transferability of the niche models by forecasting historical models and testing the model predictions using temporally independent outbreak data from the current outbreak. Our results indicated that there has been a significant expansion of climatically suitable habitat over the past 50 yr and that much of this expansion corresponds with an upward shift in elevation across the study area. Furthermore, our models indicated that drought was a more prominent driver of current outbreak than temperature, which suggests a change in the climatic signature between historical and current outbreaks. Projections under future conditions suggest that there will be a large reduction in climatically suitable habitat for the beetle and that high-elevation forests will continue to become more susceptible to outbreak. While all three models generated reasonable predictions, the generalized linear model correctly predicted a higher percentage of current outbreak localities when trained on historical data. Our findings suggest that researchers aiming to reduce omission error in estimates of future species responses may have greater predictive success with simpler, generalized models.

Description: Community assembly processes do not only influence community structure, but can also affect ecosystem processes. To understand the effect of initial community development on ecosystem processes, we studied natural fungal community dynamics during initial wood decay. We hypothesize that fungal community assembly dynamics are driven by strong priority effects of early-arriving species, which lead to predictable successional patterns and wood decay rates. Alternatively, equivalent colonization success of randomly arriving spores has the potential to drive stochastic community composition and wood decay rates over time. To test these competing hypotheses, we explored the changes in fungal community composition in logs of two tree species (one coniferous and one broadleaf) during the early stages of wood decomposition in a common garden approach. Initial communities were characterized by endophytic fungi, which were highly diverse and variable among logs. Over the first year of decomposition, there was little evidence for priority effects, as early colonizers displaced the endophytic species, and diversity fell as logs were dominated by a few fungal species. During this period, the composition of colonizing fungi was related to the decomposition rates of sapwood. During the second year of decomposition, fungal community composition shifted drastically and the successional dynamics varied considerably between tree species. Variation in fungal community composition among coniferous ( Larix kaempferi ) logs increased, and there remained no evidence for any priority effects as community composition became stochastic. In contrast, early colonizers still dominated many of the deciduous ( Quercus rubra ) logs, with a temporally consistent impact on community composition. For both tree species, wood decay rates levelled off and the relationship with fungal community composition disappeared. Our results indicate that priority effects are relatively minimal in naturally occurring fungal community assembly processes. Instead, fungal successional dynamics are governed predominantly by combative abilities of colonizing fungi, and factors that shape fungal communities over time can differ considerably between tree species. Our results indicate that an increased focus of competitive strength among species, rather than priority effects, may be key to predict community assembly and the ecosystem process they provide.

Description: Theory suggests that in a new habitat, initial levels of genetic or species diversity can influence subsequent community assembly. Nevertheless, empirical investigations of these diversity effects in newly created habitats remain rare at both the genetic and species level, especially for animal systems. To test this theory, we conducted a field experiment in which initial stocking diversity (both intra- and interspecific) of freshwater zooplankton in newly constructed pools was manipulated in a 2 × 2 fully factorial design. Zooplankton communities were sampled every 2 weeks from May to August in 2011 and 2012, and once in May of 2013 and 2014. Estimates of overland dispersal were measured in 2012. Despite theoretical predictions, we found no difference in taxonomic richness among stocking treatments after 4 yr. A total of 24 species was recorded in the experimental pool metacommunity, with average cumulative taxonomic richness ranging from 6.1 to 7.6 species per pool. Using dispersal traps, we found that dispersal of zooplankton was rapid, with eight taxa dispersing within 7 d; we found no difference in the number of dispersed propagules based on number of neighboring source pools. Despite theoretical predictions regarding diversity and community assembly, our study suggests that initial diversity may have no effect on early successional community species richness.

Description: We analyzed land-cover and forest vegetation data from nearly 25,000 permanent plots distributed across 50 national parks in the eastern United States, along with the matrix around each park, to examine structural characteristics of park forests in relation to their surrounding landscape. Over 2000 of these plots are part of the National Park Service (NPS) Inventory and Monitoring Program (I&M), and the remaining 22,500+ plots are part of the US Forest Service (USFS) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program. This is the first study to compare forest structure in protected lands with the surrounding forest matrix over such a large area of the United States and is only possible because of the 10+ years of data that are now publicly available from USFS-FIA and NPS I&M. Results of this study indicate that park forests, where logging is largely prohibited, preserve areas of regionally significant older forest habitat. Park forests consistently had greater proportions of late-successional forest, greater live tree basal area, greater densities of live and dead large trees, and considerably larger volume of coarse woody debris. Park forests also had lower tree growth and mortality rates than matrix forests, suggesting different forest dynamics between park and matrix forests. The divergent patterns we observed between matrix and park forests were similar to those reported in studies that compared managed and old-growth forests, although the differences in our study were less pronounced. With the majority of park forests in second growth, eastern parks may be a more realistic baseline to compare with the more intensively managed matrix forests. We recommend that park managers allow natural disturbance and the development of older structure to continue in park forests. In addition, long-term maintenance of regional biodiversity will likely require increases in older forest structure in the matrix. As the NPS moves into its next century of land preservation, we encourage managers to consider parks important components of a larger regional effort to preserve biodiversity and ecosystem processes in eastern US forests. The data collected by NPS I&M programs will continue to provide important information and guidance toward these regional conservation efforts.

Description: Temperature is highly variable across space and time at multiple scales, shapes landscape pattern, and dictates ecological processes. While our knowledge of ecological phenomena is vast relative to many landscape metrics, thermal patterns which shape landscape mosaics are largely unknown. To address this disconnect, we investigated the thermal landscape by measuring black bulb temperature ( T bb ) at intervals as small as 15 min across 3 yr in a mixed-grass shrub vegetation community. We found that the thermal landscape was highly heterogeneous displaying a prevalence for thermal extremes (i.e., T bb  〉 50°C) and that T bb was driven by the synergism of environmental, terrain, and vegetation factors. Specifically, variation of T bb on the landscape was best predicted by the inclusion of ambient temperature ( T air ), solar radiation ( S rad ), low woody cover, and tall woody cover as variables. Moreover, models of single vegetation parameters (i.e., bare ground, low woody, or tall woody cover) each had greater relative importance than those containing a single terrain variable (i.e., slope or aspect) based on AIC, providing evidence that vegetation is a key driver of T bb on the landscape. Within the thermally heterogeneous landscape, tall woody cover moderated T bb by 10°C more than bare ground, herbaceous, or low woody cover during peak diurnal heating (14:00), and was the only cover type that remained 〈50°C on average. Given that tall woody cover comprises only about 7% of the landscape in our study, these findings have direct conservation implications for species inhabiting shrub communities, specifically that the distribution of tall woody cover is a spatially limited but key predictor of potential thermal refugia on the landscape. Our findings also demonstrate that local interactions between vegetation and temperature can create thermal patterns that shape dynamic landscape mosaics across space and time. Furthermore, we show that structural heterogeneity can maximize thermal complexity across landscapes which can provide greater potential thermal options for organisms. However, our modeled climate projections suggest that far greater thermal extremes will be possible across increasingly larger swaths of the landscape in the future, making assessments and quantifications of thermal landscapes increasingly critical.

Description: Current terrestrial ecosystem models are usually driven with global average annual atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration data at the global scale. However, high-precision CO 2 measurement from eddy flux towers showed that seasonal, spatial surface atmospheric CO 2 concentration differences were as large as 35 ppmv and the site-level tests indicated that the CO 2 variation exhibited different effects on plant photosynthesis. Here we used a process-based ecosystem model driven with two spatially and temporally explicit CO 2 data sets to analyze the atmospheric CO 2 fertilization effects on the global carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems from 2003 to 2010. Our results demonstrated that CO 2 seasonal variation had a negative effect on plant carbon assimilation, while CO 2 spatial variation exhibited a positive impact. When both CO 2 seasonal and spatial effects were considered, global gross primary production and net ecosystem production were 1.7 Pg C·yr −1 and 0.08 Pg C·yr −1 higher than the simulation using uniformly distributed CO 2 data set and the difference was significant in tropical and temperate evergreen broadleaf forest regions. This study suggests that the CO 2 observation network should be expanded so that the realistic CO 2 variation can be incorporated into the land surface models to adequately account for CO 2 fertilization effects on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics.

Description: Freshwater wetlands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, changes in temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration (i.e., climate drivers) are likely to alter flooding regimes of wetlands and affect the vital rates, abundance, and distributions of wetland-dependent species. Amphibians may be among the most climate-sensitive wetland-dependent groups, as many species rely on shallow or intermittently flooded wetland habitats for breeding. Here, we integrated multiple years of high-resolution gridded climate and amphibian monitoring data from Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks to explicitly model how variations in climate drivers and habitat conditions affect the occurrence and breeding dynamics (i.e., annual extinction and colonization rates) of amphibians. Our results showed that models incorporating climate drivers outperformed models of amphibian breeding dynamics that were exclusively habitat based. Moreover, climate-driven variation in extinction rates, but not colonization rates, disproportionately influenced amphibian occupancy in monitored wetlands. Long-term monitoring from national parks coupled with high-resolution climate data sets will be crucial to describing population dynamics and characterizing the sensitivity of amphibians and other wetland-dependent species to climate change. Further, long-term monitoring of wetlands in national parks will help reduce uncertainty surrounding wetland resources and strengthen opportunities to make informed, science-based decisions that have far-reaching benefits.

Description: Little is known regarding the fire history of high-latitude coastal temperate rain forests in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of North America. While reconstructing historical fire regimes typically requires dendrochronological records from fire-scarred trees or stratigraphically preserved lake sediment data, this type of information is virtually non-existent in this region. To describe the long-term fire history of a site on the central coast of British Columbia, Canada, we radiocarbon-dated 52 pieces of charcoal. Charcoal ages ranged from 12,670 to 70 yr BP. Fires occurred regularly since 12,670 yr BP, with the exception of a distinct fire-free period at 7500–5500 yr BP. Time since fire (TSF) estimates from soil charcoal and fire-scarred trees ranged from 12,670 to 100 yr BP (median = 327 yr), and 70% of the sites examined had burned within the past 1000 yr. An increase in fire frequency in the late Holocene is consistent with the widely held hypothesis that anthropogenic fires were common across the PNW. We evaluate TSF distributions and discuss the difficulties in assigning actual fire dates from charcoal fragments with large inbuilt ages in a coastal temperate rain forest setting. We determine that a comprehensive approach using soil charcoal and fire scar analyses is necessary to reconstruct general trends in fire activity throughout the Holocene in this region.

Description: Macroscale studies of ecological phenomena are increasingly common because stressors such as climate and land-use change operate at large spatial and temporal scales. Cross-scale interactions (CSIs), where ecological processes operating at one spatial or temporal scale interact with processes operating at another scale, have been documented in a variety of ecosystems and contribute to complex system dynamics. However, studies investigating CSIs are often dependent on compiling multiple data sets from different sources to create multithematic, multiscaled data sets, which results in structurally complex, and sometimes incomplete data sets. The statistical power to detect CSIs needs to be evaluated because of their importance and the challenge of quantifying CSIs using data sets with complex structures and missing observations. We studied this problem using a spatially hierarchical model that measures CSIs between regional agriculture and its effects on the relationship between lake nutrients and lake productivity. We used an existing large multithematic, multiscaled database, LAke multiscaled GeOSpatial, and temporal database (LAGOS), to parameterize the power analysis simulations. We found that the power to detect CSIs was more strongly related to the number of regions in the study rather than the number of lakes nested within each region. CSI power analyses will not only help ecologists design large-scale studies aimed at detecting CSIs, but will also focus attention on CSI effect sizes and the degree to which they are ecologically relevant and detectable with large data sets.

Description: In forests, total belowground carbon (C) flux (TBCF) is a large component of the C budget and represents a critical pathway for delivery of plant C to soil. Reducing uncertainty around regional estimates of forest C cycling may be aided by incorporating knowledge of controls over soil respiration and TBCF. Photosynthesis, and presumably TBCF, declines with advancing tree size and age, and photosynthesis increases yet C partitioning to TBCF decreases in response to high soil fertility. We hypothesized that these causal relationships would result in predictable patterns of TBCF, and partitioning of C to TBCF, with natural variability in leaf area index (LAI), soil nitrogen (N), and tree height in subalpine forests in the Rocky Mountains, USA. Using three consecutive years of soil respiration data collected from 22 0.38-ha locations across three 1-km 2 subalpine forested landscapes, we tested three hypotheses: (1) annual soil respiration and TBCF will show a hump-shaped relationship with LAI; (2) variability in TBCF unexplained by LAI will be related to soil nitrogen (N); and (3) partitioning of C to TBCF (relative to woody growth) will decline with increasing soil N and tree height. We found partial support for Hypothesis 1 and full support for Hypotheses 2 and 3. TBCF, but not soil respiration, was explained by LAI and soil N patterns ( r 2  = 0.49), and the ratio of annual TBCF to TBCF plus aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) was related to soil N and tree height ( r 2  = 0.72). Thus, forest C partitioning to TBCF can vary even within the same forest type and region, and approaches that assume a constant fraction of TBCF relative to ANPP may be missing some of this variability. These relationships can aid with estimates of forest soil respiration and TBCF across landscapes, using spatially explicit forest data such as national inventories or remotely sensed data products.

Description: Climate change is expected to disrupt the distribution and behavior of montane birds. Monitoring these impacts will be essential because the ecological effects of climate change are likely to be complex. Hiking trails that traverse montane regions provide an opportunity to efficiently survey bird diversity along elevation and other ecological gradients, and these data can be used to model climate-related vulnerabilities of avian communities. In 2010, we surveyed a 697-km segment of the Pacific Crest Trail in northern California, USA. We conducted point counts of birds at 404 sites during the breeding season when birds were readily detected by song and other vocalizations. To bolster our sampling effort, we left automated recorders at approximately half of the sites to make recordings for later interpretation of bird vocalizations. Using a multispecies occupancy model, we investigated how relationships between richness and elevation and between vocal activity and daily temperature differed among three migratory guilds—residents, altitudinal migrants, and Neotropical migrants. We found that richness decreased with increasing elevation for residents and Neotropical migrants, whereas it increased for altitudinal migrants. As temperature increased, residents and altitudinal migrants curtailed their vocal activity, but Neotropical migrants did not reduce vocal activity even though this behavior is energetically expensive on hot days. We also found that total species within each of three elevation zones was greatest at middle elevations (1200–1900 m). Altogether, these findings suggest that as global temperature rises there may be greater competition among birds previously separated by elevation and that Neotropical migrants may be at greater risk of heat stress during the breeding season. Furthermore, the conservation of structurally complex, middle-elevation forests could provide birds a refugium to the impacts of climate change.

Description: There is an obvious need for a better understanding of the drivers of local spatial heterogeneity in alpine phytomass. Facing challenges in scaling relations with data available either at biome-scale or at plot-scale we wanted to disentangle the driving forces behind spatial patterns of phytomass, productivity, and energy content in alpine reindeer pastures. Our hypothesis was that we would find a set of environmental variables that explain the patterns of fodder resources, thereafter facilitating a spatial upscaling of plot-based data to the broad-scale range of the reindeer pastures. Based on a nested stratified random design, we used univariate and multivariate statistical analyses to relate fodder resources to environmental data along fine-scaled micro-topographical gradients which were embedded in broad-scaled gradients of grazing intensities and climatic conditions throughout Norway. We found that the spatial heterogeneity of resources was not sufficiently explained by our comprehensive set of commonly available environmental variables. This reveals that micro-spatial patterns of energetic fodder resources for reindeer in alpine landscapes are miscalculated by common approaches and that the functionalities behind these micro-spatial patterns are not yet fully understood. Hence, our results suggest that broad-scale models cannot account for the functionality in alpine environments, highlighting that resolution, scale, and the functional context are crucial aspects in understanding broad-scale resource patterns of reindeer pastures.

Description: Anthropogenic desertification is a problem that plagues drylands globally; however, the factors which maintain degraded states are often unclear. In Canyonlands National Park on the Colorado Plateau of southeastern Utah, many degraded grasslands have not recovered structure and function 〉40 yr after release from livestock grazing pressure, necessitating active restoration. We hypothesized that multiple factors contribute to the persistent degraded state, including lack of seed availability, surficial soil-hydrological properties, and high levels of spatial connectivity (lack of perennial vegetation and other surface structure to retain water, litter, seed, and sediment). In combination with seeding and surface raking treatments, we tested the effect of small barrier structures (“ConMods”) designed to disrupt the loss of litter, seed and sediment in degraded soil patches within the park. Grass establishment was highest when all treatments (structures, seed addition, and soil disturbance) were combined, but only in the second year after installation, following favorable climatic conditions. We suggest that multiple limiting factors were ameliorated by treatments, including seed limitation and microsite availability, seed removal by harvester ants, and stressful abiotic conditions. Higher densities of grass seedlings on the north and east sides of barrier structures following the summer months suggest that structures may have functioned as artificial “nurse-plants”, sheltering seedlings from wind and radiation as well as accumulating wind-blown resources. Barrier structures increased the establishment of both native perennial grasses and exotic annuals, although there were species-specific differences in mortality related to spatial distribution of seedlings within barrier structures. The unique success of all treatments combined, and even then only under favorable climatic conditions and in certain soil patches, highlights that restoration success (and potentially, natural regeneration) often is contingent on many interacting factors.

Description: Developing land-use practices that lead to sustainable net primary productivity in rangelands are important, but understanding their consequences to population and community processes is not often accounted for in basic ecosystem studies. Grazed and ungrazed upland ecosystems generally do not differ in net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE), but the underlying mechanisms and the concurrent effects of defoliation to vegetative and reproductive biomass allocation are unclear. To address this, we measured evapotranspiration (ET), NEE, and its constituent fluxes of ecosystem respiration (R eco ) and gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP) with live canopy leaf area index (LAI live ; m 2 live leaf area/m 2 ground area) and aboveground leaf, culm, and reproductive biomass in plots of clipped and unclipped squirreltail ( Elymus elymoides ) and bluebunch wheatgrass ( Pseudoroegneria spicata ) growing in intact sagebrush steppe. Clipping reduced LAI live by 75%, but subsequent re-growth rates in clipped plots was similar to LAI live accumulation in unclipped plots. Concurrently, ET and NEE was similar between clipped and unclipped plots, with NEE primarily determined by GEP. GEP was initially lower in clipped plots, but then converged with unclipped GEP even as LAI live continued to increase in both treatments. GEP convergence was driven by higher whole-plant photosynthesis (GEP live  = GEP/LAI live ) in clipped plots. Ecosystem water use efficiency (GEP/ET) was reduced by 16% with clipping, due to low GEP/ET 2 weeks following defoliation, but GEP/ET converged before GEP levels did. Proportional reproductive biomass was higher in E. elymoides (21.4% total biomass) than in P. spicata (0.5% total biomass) due to lower allocation to specific leaf and culm mass. Clipping reduced reproductive effort in E. elymoides , in terms of total reproductive biomass (−56%), seed mass per unit leaf area (−64%), and seed mass per flowering head (−77%). We concluded defoliation increased canopy-level light penetration, facilitating rapid recovery of ecosystem fluxes, but that allocation to vegetative regrowth supporting this led to lower reproductive effort in these range grasses. Insights from studies such as this will be useful in formulating systems-based land management strategies aimed at maintaining annual productivity and long-term population and community goals in semiarid rangeland ecosystems.

Description: Managing for species using current weather patterns fails to incorporate the uncertainty associated with future climatic conditions; without incorporating potential changes in climate into conservation strategies, management and conservation efforts may fall short or waste valuable resources. Understanding the effects of climate change on species in the Great Plains of North America is especially important, as this region is projected to experience an increased magnitude of climate change. Of particular ecological and conservation interest is the lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ), which was listed as “threatened” under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in May 2014. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effects of extreme climatic events (extreme values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]) relative to intermediate (changes in El Niño Southern Oscillation) and long-term climate variability (changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) on trends in lesser prairie-chicken abundance from 1981 to 2014. Our results indicate that lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks responded to environmental conditions of the year previous by positively responding to wet springs (high PDSI) and negatively to years with hot, dry summers (low PDSI), but had little response to variation in the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Additionally, greater variation in abundance on leks was explained by variation in site relative to broad-scale climatic indices. Consequently, lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks in Kansas is more strongly influenced by extreme drought events during summer than other climatic conditions, which may have negative consequences for the population as drought conditions intensify throughout the Great Plains.

Description: Human-mediated invasions of nonindigenous species are modifying global biodiversity. Despite significant interest in the topic, niche separation and specialization of invasive and closely related native sympatric species are not well understood. It is expected that combined use of various methods may reveal different aspects of niche space and provide stronger evidence for niche partitioning as compared to a single method. We applied the species marginality index (OMI) and species distribution modeling (SDM) in the northern Baltic Proper to determine (1) if environmental niche spaces at habitat scale differ between taxonomically and functionally closely related invasive and native gammarid species, and (2) whether the observed pattern relates to the species distribution overlap. Both methods agreed in notably narrower and more segregated realized niche of invasive Gammarus tigrinus compared to the studied native gammarids. Among native species, the distribution of G. zaddachi overlapped the most with G. tigrinus . Our results confirm that widespread colonization does not require a wide niche of the colonizer, but may rather be a function of other biological traits and/or the saturation of the recipient ecosystem. The niche divergence and wider environmental niche space of native species are likely to safeguard their existence in habitats less suitable for G. tigrinus .

Description: Estimating streamwater solute loads is a central objective of many water-quality monitoring and research studies, as loads are used to compare with atmospheric inputs, to infer biogeochemical processes, and to assess whether water quality is improving or degrading. In this study, we evaluate loads and associated errors to determine the best load estimation technique among three methods (a period-weighted approach, the regression-model method, and the composite method) based on a solute's concentration dynamics and sampling frequency. We evaluated a broad range of varying concentration dynamics with stream flow and season using four dissolved solutes (sulfate, silica, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon) at five diverse small watersheds (Sleepers River Research Watershed, VT; Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH; Biscuit Brook Watershed, NY; Panola Mountain Research Watershed, GA; and Río Mameyes Watershed, PR) with fairly high-frequency sampling during a 10- to 11-yr period. Data sets with three different sampling frequencies were derived from the full data set at each site (weekly plus storm/snowmelt events, weekly, and monthly) and errors in loads were assessed for the study period, annually, and monthly. For solutes that had a moderate to strong concentration–discharge relation, the composite method performed best, unless the autocorrelation of the model residuals was 〈0.2, in which case the regression-model method was most appropriate. For solutes that had a nonexistent or weak concentration–discharge relation (model R 2  〈 about 0.3), the period-weighted approach was most appropriate. The lowest errors in loads were achieved for solutes with the strongest concentration–discharge relations. Sample and regression model diagnostics could be used to approximate overall accuracies and annual precisions. For the period-weighed approach, errors were lower when the variance in concentrations was lower, the degree of autocorrelation in the concentrations was higher, and sampling frequency was higher. The period-weighted approach was most sensitive to sampling frequency. For the regression-model and composite methods, errors were lower when the variance in model residuals was lower. For the composite method, errors were lower when the autocorrelation in the residuals was higher. Guidelines to determine the best load estimation method based on solute concentration–discharge dynamics and diagnostics are presented, and should be applicable to other studies.

Description: Florivory, or the consumption of flowers, is a ubiquitous interaction that can reduce plant reproduction directly by damaging reproductive tissues and indirectly by deterring pollinators. However, we know surprisingly little about how florivory alters plant traits or the larger community of species interactions. Although leaf damage is known to affect floral traits and interactions in many systems, the consequences of floral damage for leaf traits and interactions are unknown. We manipulated floral damage in Impatiens capensis and measured effects on floral attractive traits and secondary chemicals, leaf secondary chemicals, floral interactions, leaf herbivory, and plant reproduction. We also examined relationships between early season floral traits and floral interactions, to explore which traits structure floral interactions. Moderate but not high florivory significantly increased relative selfed reproduction, leading to a shift in mating system away from outcrossing. Florivory increased leaf secondary compounds and decreased leaf herbivory, although mechanisms other than leaf chemistry may be responsible for some of the reduced leaf damage. Florivory altered four of seven measured interactions, including increased subsequent florivory and reduced flower spiders, although only leaf damage effects were significant after correcting for multiple tests. Pretreatment concentrations of floral anthocyanins and condensed tannins were associated with reduced levels of many floral antagonisms, including florivory, nectar larceny, and flower spider abundance, suggesting these traits play a role in floral resistance. Overall, our results indicate a broad range of community and potential evolutionary consequences of florivory through structuring subsequent floral interactions, altering leaf secondary chemicals, and shaping leaf herbivory.

Description: Monitoring solutes in precipitation inputs and stream water exports at small watersheds has greatly advanced our understanding of biogeochemical cycling. Surprisingly, although inputs to and outputs from ecosystems are instrumental to understanding sources and sinks of nutrients and other elements, uncertainty in these fluxes is rarely reported in ecosystem budgets. We illustrate error propagation in input–output budgets by comparing the net hydrologic flux of Ca in a harvested and reference watershed at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire. We identify sources of uncertainty and use a Monte Carlo approach to combine many sources of uncertainty to produce an estimate of overall uncertainty. Sources of uncertainty in precipitation inputs included in this study were: rain gage efficiency (undercatch or overcatch), gaps in measurements of precipitation volume, selection of a model for interpolating among rain gages, unusable precipitation chemistry, and chemical analysis. Sources of uncertainty in stream water outputs were: stage height–discharge relationship, watershed area, gaps in the stream flow record, chemical analysis, and the selection of a method for flux calculation. The annual net hydrologic flux of Ca in the harvested and reference watersheds was calculated from 1973 through 2009. Relative to the reference watershed, the harvested watershed showed a marked increase in Ca flux after it was cut in 1983–1984, and slowly declined toward pretreatment levels thereafter. In 2009, the last year evaluated, the 95% confidence intervals for the annual estimates approach the 95% confidence intervals of the pretreatment regression line, suggesting that the increased net loss of Ca in the harvested watershed may soon be indistinguishable from the reference. Identifying the greatest sources of uncertainty can be used to guide improvements, for example in reducing instances of unusable precipitation chemistry and gaps in stream runoff. Our results highlight the value of estimating uncertainty in watershed studies, including those in which replication is impractical.

Description: Natural and artificial flushing of the weed seed bank, followed by killing of seedlings, is a common practice in agricultural and prerestoration settings, but its application for post-restoration management has not been tested in the context of restored native plants. Summer watering at already restored sites could reduce exotic annual grass cover by decreasing the seed bank, thereby increasing native perennial success in subsequent growing seasons. Five replicated watering treatments of 11.35 L per watering event were applied for up to a 4 week period, with watering events ranging from once daily for a minimum or four and maximum of 16 d, or twice daily for 4 d, for a total of 45.4–181.7 L water applied in each 1-m 2 plot. Two of the watering treatments triggered significant flushing of annual grasses: watering for a total of 16 d once per day, and 4 d twice per day. Although this conferred a short-term reduction in annual grass emergence at the start of the subsequent rainy season, it did not reduce total annual cover at peak flowering in the growing season, or provide a longer term advantage to native perennial grasses. It is possible that there are sufficient seeds in the seed bank that this at least partly compensated for the seed bank reduction and did not result in a reduction in final cover, or that lower densities of seedlings are sufficient to achieve “total” cover. Perennial grass cover increased in response to all watering treatments, but this did not result in significantly increased cover the following year. These results suggest that even watering treatments that produce large flushes of exotic annual grasses are insufficient to reduce exotic cover longer term. It should be explored whether more water, applied more frequently, could be effective in reducing the exotic grass seed bank enough to confer a long-term reduction in exotic cover and a benefit to native perennial grasses.

Description: Species extinctions have the potential to dramatically reshape ecological communities. In the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, the emergence of a lethal amphibian pathogen ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ) drives mountain yellow-legged frog ( Rana muscosa and Rana sierrae ) populations to local extinction. Prior to population declines, these frogs and their tadpoles were abundant, high-level predators and grazers with high trophic connectance. To quantify how these low diversity aquatic macroinvertebrate communities respond to nonrandom single-species local extinctions, we quantified aquatic macroinvertebrate communities using two approaches: a natural experiment (“Resurveys”) and a large-scale synoptic observational study (“Snapshot” surveys). In the Resurveys, we compared benthic macroinvertebrate communities in 22 Sierra Nevada alpine lakes that we categorized as either having extant frog populations, experiencing ongoing disease-driven frog declines, or having previously experienced local disease-driven frog extirpation. In the Resurveys, taxonomic richness was about one taxa (17%) higher in lakes where frogs were declining or extinct, compared to lakes where frogs were extant. However, multivariate analyses revealed no strong dissimilarities among Resurvey communities, and there were no differences in the abundances of individual taxa between lakes in the frogs extant, declining, or extinct categories. In the Snapshot surveys, we reanalyzed previously collected data from a large-scale survey of 157 lakes with and without frogs. In the Snapshot survey, invertebrate taxonomic richness was less than one taxa (9%) lower in lakes without frogs, and multivariate analyses again indicated only small differences between lakes with and without frogs. Overall, disease-driven mountain yellow-legged frog extinctions had small effects on lake benthic macroinvertebrate communities, with no large changes in invertebrate abundance, richness or evenness, no clear secondary extinctions or invasions, and few taxa showing distinct responses to frog extinctions. Our study highlights how even for conspicuous, highly connected, omnivorous taxa that are experiencing large, rapid, and widespread declines and extinctions, the ecological effects of extinctions will sometimes be small and subtle.

Description: Migratory animals can have profound impacts on ecosystem structure and function. In streams, salmon are well known for their contrasting influences on primary productivity through nutrient delivery, which enhances potential productivity, and substrate disturbance during nest building, which reduces algal biomass and primary production. However, most migratory fish species neither disturb the substrate significantly nor die en masse after spawning, hence their influence on ecosystems may differ from that observed in salmon streams. To determine the influence of nutrient subsidies from migrations of iteroparous fish whose broadcast spawning does not disturb the substrate substantially, we compared nutrient limitation, nutrient concentrations, and stream metabolism during spawning migrations of suckers ( Catostomus spp.) in Lake Michigan tributaries with and without migration barriers. Although suckers deliver both nitrogen and phosphorus as eggs and waste excretion, only nitrogen concentrations were elevated during the migration (NH 4 -N rose 44% relative to sites without a sucker run). Nutrient diffusing substrates demonstrated P-limitation during the migration at sites spanning a wide range of sucker abundance, suggesting that high demand for likely masked P inputs from fish. Time series analyses indicated that gross primary production (GPP) increased with sucker excretion, but not with egg deposition after accounting for abiotic conditions. In contrast, egg deposition, but not excretion, was associated with a slight increase in ecosystem respiration (ER), suggesting that sucker gametes provide labile carbon that contributes to ER. The effects of suckers contrast with ecosystem responses to salmon migrations, which elevate ER but have mixed effects on GPP. This disparity reflects the fact that suckers fertilize streams without attendant disturbance effects. Our results suggest that basic differences in life history and behavior of migratory fish determine the direction and magnitude of their ecosystem effects. As a result, broad trait-based predictions of the ecosystem role of migratory fishes may become possible as more species are studied.

Description: Cities annex wilderness and alter the interactions between the plant and animal assemblages embedded in the remaining nature fragments. Here, we explore consequences of habitat fragmentation for dispersal of cactus by fruit-eating mammals in the Sonoran Desert landscape. We use the barrel cactus, Ferocactus wislizeni , as a model system to diagnose (1) how fruit utilization by a mammal assemblage changes with fragment area and isolation, (2) what characteristics make individual plants particularly susceptible to frugivore failure, and (3) how inter-fragment differences in plant–frugivore interactions influence the seedlings’ susceptibility to other stressors (granivores and drought). We described the type and phenology of plant–animal interactions in 20 fragments along a 0.05–500 ha size continuum within a large city (Tucson, Arizona, USA), and combined allometric scaling models of mammalian home ranges and descriptions of plant size distributions to predict the fraction of the fruit crops accessible to resident mammalian frugivores in each fragment. Fruit removal rates generally increased along a continuum of fragment sizes, and older, taller plants were particularly susceptible to frugivore failure and more likely to have fruits attacked by granivorous rodents. As a result, thresholds where the nature and/or phenology of a plant's interactions with animals changes can be accurately predicted by integrating descriptions of fragment size, fragment isolation, and plant population structure. Last, we found support for the hypothesis that fragmentation-induced changes in the phenology of fruit removal compromise the seedlings’ ability to exploit precipitation delivered in winter and spring. Specifically, as a result of slower fruit removal, the seed crops in small fragments forfeit access to an increasing proportion of the rains between October and March, which determine whether cactus seedlings can survive the following dry season (April, May, June). We expect these inter-site differences in the type and phenology of interactions to compromise the integrity of plant populations in smaller fragments, to become increasingly influential in ecological settings in the Sonoran Desert where access to precipitation is essential, and to become increasingly prevalent as the plants in newly fragmented plant populations age (grow) to sizes that are more susceptible to frugivore failure in the defaunated landscapes.

Description: Fog drip is recognized as an important source of water for many ecosystems that often harbor a disproportionate fraction of endemic species. Characterizing and quantifying the ecological importance of fog drip in these ecosystems requires a range of approaches. We report on a multi-faceted study of Bishop pine ( Pinus muricata D. Don) along a coastal-inland transect on an island off Southern California. Hourly sampling included micrometeorology, sap flux, and soil moisture. Monthly measurements included changes in tree girth, plant water stress, and isotopic values of fogwater, rainwater, and xylem water. These data show that summertime fog drip clearly affected soil moisture and maintained aspects of tree function, including leaf water relations, sap flux dynamics, and growth rates. Although water from fog drip to the soil surface was occasionally taken up by pine trees, as quantified with isotopic measurements and a Bayesian mixing model, this utilization of fog drip was highly variable in space and time. The proportion of fogwater inferred to have been used is also much less than has been demonstrated in more mesic coastal forest ecosystems using isotopic methods. These results thus suggest high ecosystem sensitivity to even moderate amounts of fog drip, a finding with important implications as climate change differentially affects fog and rain patterns.

Description: Coastal ecosystems in general, and barrier islands in particular, offer unique opportunities to observe ecological patterns and processes in spatially and temporally compressed settings. Harsh abiotic conditions and frequent disturbances limit the number of resident species, and highly dynamic geomorphology may result in a space-for-time substitution as young shoreward communities give way to more developed later-successional interior communities. We investigated relationships between lianas and woody plants at barrier island sites in Virginia (Hog Island) and North Carolina (Duck FRF), to evaluate whether liana proliferation accelerates or delays succession from the dominant woody community, Morella shrub thicket, to the historic climax community, maritime forest. Using aerial imagery, Lidar data, community surveys, and edaphic sampling, we found a correlative relationship between abiotic environmental variables and woody community structure, and also between woody community distribution and liana success. Environmental variables demonstrated little predictive ability for liana distribution, but there was evidence of an association between lianas and the prominent woody species at Hog Island, though patchiness of the community and abiotic homogeneity prevented these associations from establishing at Duck FRF. We suggest that trends of woody plant expansion, compounded with current and predicted global change effects on growth and success of lianas, may contribute to a delay or prevention of further successional development at these and other temperate coastal sites.

Description: Effective conservation planning requires understanding and ranking threats to wildlife populations. We developed a Bayesian network model to evaluate the relative influence of environmental and anthropogenic stressors, and their mitigation, on the persistence of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Overall sea ice conditions, affected by rising global temperatures, were the most influential determinant of population outcomes. Accordingly, unabated rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations was the dominant influence leading to worsened population outcomes, with polar bears in three of four ecoregions reaching a dominant probability of decreased or greatly decreased by the latter part of this century. Stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations by mid-century delayed the greatly reduced state by ≈25 yr in two ecoregions. Prompt and aggressive mitigation of emissions reduced the probability of any regional population becoming greatly reduced by up to 25%. Marine prey availability, linked closely to sea ice trend, had slightly less influence on outcome state than sea ice availability itself. Reduced mortality from hunting and defense of life and property interactions resulted in modest declines in the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased population outcome. Minimizing other stressors such as trans-Arctic shipping, oil and gas exploration, and contaminants had a negligible effect on polar bear outcomes, although the model was not well-informed with respect to the potential influence of these stressors. Adverse consequences of loss of sea ice habitat became more pronounced as the summer ice-free period lengthened beyond four months, which could occur in most of the Arctic basin after mid-century if GHG emissions are not promptly reduced. Long-term conservation of polar bears would be best supported by holding global mean temperature to ≤ 2°C above preindustrial levels. Until further sea ice loss is stopped, management of other stressors may serve to slow the transition of populations to progressively worsened outcomes, and improve the prospects for their long-term persistence.

Description: Climate change and agricultural intensification are two potential stressors that may pose significant threats to aquatic habitats in the inland Pacific Northwest over the next century. Climate change may impact running water through numerous pathways, including effects on water temperature and stream flow. In certain regions of the Pacific Northwest, agricultural activities, such as crop production, may become more profitable if water projects result in more irrigation water. If so, riparian buffers in these areas may be converted into cropland, which may in turn affect aquatic habitats through increases in sediment and agrochemical runoff into streams. We used currently available downscaled temperature and hydrology data in combination with a habitat quality framework developed for Pacific salmon and trout ( Oncorhynchus spp.) to predict how different levels of each stressor, alone and in combination, may impact aquatic habitats in an inland Pacific Northwest watershed dominated by high-value agriculture—the Umatilla Subbasin. We developed spatially explicit predictions for how changes in stream flow and water temperature associated with three climate change scenarios and loss of riparian buffers in two agricultural intensification scenarios may impact aquatic habitats. We also examined the cumulative effects of the interaction of extreme climate change and agricultural intensification scenarios. Our results show that all three climate change scenarios are expected to primarily impact aquatic habitat in the upper Subbasin. In contrast, agricultural intensification scenarios did not have large impacts on temperature, but are predicted to affect other water quality variables in the lower Subbasin. A moderate scenario of agricultural intensification had relatively little effect on aquatic habitat, whereas the removal of all riparian buffers in agriculturally viable areas had a substantially negative effect on sediment, embeddedness, and large woody debris in the lower Subbasin. Interactions between the most extreme climate change and agricultural intensification scenarios reflected a complementarity of effects, with climate change primarily affecting the upper Subbasin and agricultural intensification primarily impacting the lower Subbasin. This work suggests that the Umatilla Subbasin and similar watersheds will present a challenging habitat for warm water- and pollution-intolerant species in the coming century.

Description: Advances in understanding the factors that limit a species’ range, particularly in the context of climate change, have come disproportionately through investigations at range edges or margins. The margins of a species’ range might often correspond with anomalous microclimates that confer habitat suitability where the species would otherwise fail to persist. We addressed this hypothesis using data from an interior, climatic range margin of the American pika ( Ochotona princeps ), an indicator of relatively cool, mesic climates in rocky habitats of western North America. Pikas in Lava Beds National Monument, northeastern California, USA, occur at elevations much lower than predicted by latitude and longitude. We hypothesized that pika occurrence within Lava Beds would be associated primarily with features such as “ice caves” in which sub-surface ice persists outside the winter months. We used data loggers to monitor sub-surface temperatures at cave entrances and at non-cave sites, confirming that temperatures were cooler and more stable at cave entrances. We surveyed habitat characteristics and evidence of pika occupancy across a random sample of cave and non-cave sites over a 2-yr period. Pika detection probability was high (~0.97), and the combined occupancy of cave and non-cave sites varied across the 2 yr from 27% to 69%. Contrary to our hypothesis, occupancy was not higher at cave sites. Vegetation metrics were the best predictors of site use by pikas, followed by an edge effect and elevation. The importance of vegetation as a predictor of pika distribution at this interior range margin is congruent with recent studies from other portions of the species’ range. However, we caution that vegetation composition depends on microclimate, which might be the proximal driver of pika distribution. The microclimates available in non-cave crevices accessible to small animals have not been characterized adequately for lava landscapes. We advocate innovation in the acquisition and use of microclimatic data for understanding the distributions of many taxa. Appropriately scaled microclimatic data are increasingly available but rarely used in studies of range dynamics.

Description: A nesting Kemp's ridley sea turtle on the primary nesting beach at Rancho Nuevo, Mexico. E. Bevan et al. ( Ecosphere , Volume 7, Issue 3, Article 1244) found that the current abundance of this species is less than 10% of the historic level based on the recent analysis of a 1947 film recorded by Andres Herrera documenting a mass nesting event. Photo credit: Hector Chenge, used with permission.

Description: Plant–microbial symbioses are widespread in nature and can shape the ecology and evolution of hosts and interacting symbionts. Fungal endophytes—fungi that live asymptomatically within plant tissues—are a pervasive group of symbionts well known for their role in mediating host-responses to biotic and abiotic stresses. However, they also may become pathogenic and often impose metabolic costs on hosts. Here, we examine the role of fungal endophytes in mediating responses of the host grass red fescue ( Festuca rubra ) to salt and herbivore stress. We collected 38 red fescue genotypes from within its native range on Akimiski Island, Nunavut, Canada, where it occurs in the supratidal region on the northern part of the island and is heavily grazed by nesting and brood-rearing snow geese ( Chen caerulescens caerulescens ) and Canada geese ( Branta canadensis ). We screened all plants for the presence of the systemic endophyte Epichloë festucae and sequenced the nonsystemic endophytic community on a subset of these plants. While we did not detect E. festucae , our plants instead were host to a diverse array of nonsystemic fungal endophytes. We then conducted a fully factorial greenhouse experiment where we crossed plant genotype (4 levels) with simulated grazing (clipped or unclipped), endophyte status (present or absent) and salinity (0, 32 or 64 ppt) to examine the ecological role of this endophytic community. Overall, the presence of nonsystemic endophytes increased plant survival, but only in the absence of salt or clipping. On the other hand, these endophytes reduced plant tolerance to simulated herbivory by 69% but had no effect on aboveground plant growth. Thus, our results identify a potential nonsystemic endophyte-mediated trade-off in host plant survival and tolerance to herbivory and suggest this trade-off may be altered by stressful abiotic conditions.

Description: Detailed habitat maps are critical for conservation planning, yet for many coastal habitats only coarse-resolution maps are available. As the logistic and technological constraints of habitat mapping become increasingly tractable, habitat map comparisons are warranted. Here we compare two mapping approaches: local environmental knowledge (LEK) obtained from interviews; and remote sensing analysis (RS) of high spatial resolution satellite imagery (2.0 m pixel) using object-based image analysis. For a coral reef ecosystem, we compare the accuracy of these two approaches for mapping shallow seafloor habitats and contrast their characterization of habitat area and seascape connectivity. We also explore several implications for conservation planning. When evaluated using independent ground verification data, LEK-derived maps achieved a lower overall accuracy than RS-derived maps (LEK: 66%; RS: 76%). A comparison of mapped habitats found low overall agreement between LEK and RS maps. The RS map identified 5.4 times more habitat edges (the border between adjacent habitat classes) and 3.7–6.4 times greater seascape connectivity. Since the spatial arrangement of habitats affects many species (e.g., movement, predation risk), such discrepancies in landscape metrics are important to consider in conservation planning. Our results help identify strengths and weakness of both mapping approaches for conservation planning. Because RS provided a more accurate estimate of habitat distributions, it would be better for conservation planning for species sensitive to fine-spatial scale seascape patterns (e.g., habitat edges), whereas LEK is more cost effective and appropriate for mapping coarse habitat patterns. Goals for maps used in conservation should be identified early in their development.

Description: Offspring size determines offspring survival rates; thus, understanding factors influencing offspring size variability could elucidate variation in population dynamics. Offspring size variation is influenced through multigenerational adaptation to local environments and within-lifetime plastic responses to environmental variability and maternal effects among individuals. Moreover, offspring size variation may represent trade-offs in energy allocation within individuals that influence lifetime reproductive success. However, the mechanisms whereby environmental conditions influence offspring size, e.g., via inducing adaptive and plastic variation in population-scale maternal effects, remain poorly understood. We evaluated intra-specific variation in maternal effects, egg size, and intra-individual egg size variation in six populations of walleye ( Sander vitreus ) and related among- and within-population patterns to thermal conditions. Egg size was conserved within populations and negatively related to long-term thermal conditions among populations, while maternal effect strengths were positively related to thermal conditions, suggesting that populations inhabiting warmer environments adapted to produce smaller eggs but stronger maternal effects. Within a population, egg size was positively related to colder winters, suggesting cold winters may alter egg size through effects on maternal condition or as an adaptive maternal effect to improve offspring survival. Intra-individual egg size variation varied little among populations or with female size, but declined with increasing summer and decreasing winter temperatures. Our result suggests that environmental conditions could impact not only short-term offspring production but also spur adaptive changes in offspring phenotypes. Thus, it is necessary to account for adaptive responses to predict population dynamics under environmental changes.

Description: Metacommunity perspective highlights the role of space as a factor contributing to local community structure and dynamics. Often tests of metacommunity models rely on snapshot patterns of species distribution and abundance. Such patterns may introduce biases because they overlook differences in responses of constituent species to changing environmental conditions, particularly when such responses override patterns predicted from dispersal and biotic interactions alone. This applies, for example, to habitat generalists, whose responses to environmental variations differ from those of habitat specialists, resulting in different snapshot patterns at different times. Synchronized (i.e., correlated among sites) environmental variation is perhaps the most obvious case of environmental variation that could generate regular differences among species of different specialization. We hypothesized that synchronized environmental variation synchronizes local populations of habitat specialists to a greater degree than it does for habitat generalists as experiments have shown that habitat generalists are less sensitive to changing environmental conditions. To test this in an empirical system, we used time series data (nine annual surveys) on an invertebrate metacommunity of 49 rock pools on the coast of Jamaica. We found that population synchrony of a significant portion of 24 species sharing these rock pools increased with habitat specialization in response to environmental synchrony (represented by synchrony of environment). However, distance among rock pools, which may affect dispersal or shared perturbations, was negatively correlated with population synchrony of individual species, irrespective of their specialization. As only habitat specialists showed increasing synchrony with environmental synchrony, and both generalist and specialist synchrony were negatively correlated with distance, we infer that habitat generalists must be synchronized more by space-related processes while habitat specialists by a combination of environmental forcing and dispersal. Overall, the study suggests that species of different habitat specialization show consistent differences with respect to local processes involving environmental variations but show fewer differences with respect to regional processes involving distance, at least when long-term dynamics are concerned. Furthermore, the study identifies a rarely recognized link between variation in space and its consequences for variation in time—a link much more expressed among spatially restricted species such as habitat specialists.

Description: This study was conducted to determine what changes have occurred in an arid alluvial riparian shrub habitat in the upper Santa Ana River basin over a 20+-yr period beginning prior to the completion of the Seven Oaks Dam in San Bernardino County, California and continuing until 8 yr after the completion of the dam in 2000 to assess the implications any changes may have on the persistence of the short-lived Santa Ana River Woolly Star ( Eriastrum densifolium ssp. sanctorum , Polemoniaceae). Small-scale habitat changes were determined by comparing non-native annual plant data from 1989 to 2008. Large-scale habitat changes were determined by comparing perennial plant data from 1987 to 2008. The results of this study suggest that annual species, lichen crust, and dead shrubs are increasing, and that bare ground and live shrubs are decreasing. The older sites are also increasing in annual grass cover. Successional changes have occurred since the last significant flood event in 1969 although these changes are gradual and on a continuum, precluding a sharp distinction between different age stages. The data support previously predicted rates of succession indicating ultimate maturity within at least 100 yr. The continuation of these habitat changes will likely contribute to the decline of the Woolly Star population, particularly during future drought periods.

Description: Understanding how diversity is organized is essential for inference about appropriate scales for natural resource research and management. In this study, we investigated variation in scleractinian coral taxonomic richness and community diversity in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) at different spatial scales. We sampled corals in 331 sites across nine countries. Sites were pooled into 11 distinct subregions based on previous investigations on coral community structure and between closures and reefs open to fishing for five regions with sufficient closure replication. We analyzed similarities in coral communities and compared differences in mean richness and Shannon diversity. Significant differences in alpha and beta components of diversity were tested at multiple spatial scales and between management types against a random distribution null model. Rarefaction was used to investigate significant difference in total taxonomic richness among regions. Coral communities were mainly structured along Acropora and massive Porites dominance lines. Highest dissimilarity among coral communities was found at the regional level and within- and between-subregion variations accounted for most of the coral diversity. Beta components were responsible for higher proportions of taxonomic richness of which a large part was explained by the site-region interaction. Alpha diversity contributed most to Shannon diversity and site level richness and Shannon diversity had similar relationships with latitude, peaking at about 10°S. Alpha diversity also showed significant relationship with water temperature variability, peaking at a sea surface temperature standard deviation of about 1.4 °C, corresponding to the same 10°S latitude. Relatively higher alpha and beta components contributed to high richness and Shannon diversity in three regions: southern Kenya–northern Tanzania, southern Tanzania–northern Mozambique and northwestern Madagascar–Mayotte. Consequently, the findings support the proposal for delineating these locations as a regional priority for biodiversity conservation.

Description: Understanding the influence of climatic variations on forest decline is a major challenge for scientists investigating global changes. Although reductions in tree growth have previously been associated with forest decline, comprehensive efforts to understand these relationships are rare. Based on ring-width variations, we determine the influence of climatic fluctuations on the onset and temporal evolution of Nothofagus pumilio forest decline in the Patagonian Andes. Basal area increment (BAI) data from 294 Nothofagus trees at 11 stands in a 500-km latitudinal transect along the forest–steppe ecotone were used to identify the dominant patterns of regional growth. Three Regional dominant patterns , showing common variations in BAI, were derived. Two BAI patterns show high rates of growth from early to mid-20th century, followed by sustained negative trends over the last 3–6 decades, whereas the third pattern is characterized by a positive trend since the 1960s. Tipping points in growth trends of the first two patterns are associated with two extreme dry–warm climate events in spring–summer of 1942–1943/1943–1944/1944–1945 and 1978–1979. Both severe droughts were preceded by up to 10 yr of wet periods that promoted above-average tree growth. We concluded that severe droughts occurring after wet periods trigger the decline of large, dominant N. pumilio trees with high rates of growth. The coincidence between major changes in regional growth with two of the most severe droughts in the instrumental records shows that climatic variations over northern Patagonia synchronize the beginning of forest decline at a regional scale. As these dry–mesic N. pumilio sites will face more severe droughts in the 21st century, as suggested by future climate scenarios, the areas affected by forest decline would increase substantially.

Description: Fear induced by human activity is increasingly becoming recognized to influence both behavior and population biology of wildlife. Exposure to human activity can cause animals to avoid human-dominated areas or shift temporal activity patterns, but repeated, benign exposure can also result in habituation of individuals. Habituation is typically viewed as a negative potential consequence of human interactions with wildlife, with effects such as increased vulnerability of habituated animals to predation. Concurrently, the advancement of the understanding of the ecology of fear has shown reduced fitness in species because of behavioral changes in responses to fear of predators—including humans. Here, we test how habituation and fear drive the foraging ecology of brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) feeding on Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) in Southeast Alaska, USA. We used motion-detecting trail cameras at salmon spawning areas across a gradient of human disturbance to record human and bear activity at fine spatial and extended temporal scales. Higher human activity was associated with increased nocturnality of non-habituated bears, likely leading to suboptimal foraging, but had no effect on habituated individuals. For the top 20% of sites for which human activity was greatest, an average of 78.7% of the activity of non-habituated bears was nocturnal, compared with an average of only 10.2% of the activity of habituated individuals. Habituation of brown bears in this system alleviated perceived risk and avoidance of human activity, allowing habituated individuals to overcome their fear of human presence and maximize foraging opportunities. While habituation may lessen some of the deleterious effects of human activity on large carnivores, the long-term effects of habituation may be negative, as habituated individuals may be at greater risk of depredation. Future research should examine whether habituated bears and their lower perceived risk of human activity ultimately experience smaller population-level effects of human disturbance than non-habituated individuals.

Description: Predator chemical cues can elicit behavioral changes in prey to minimize predation risk. Recent field studies have shown that such predator nonconsumptive effects (NCEs) can ultimately affect prey demography. The environment is known to modulate predator consumptive effects on prey demography, but the environmental modulation of predator NCEs on prey demography remains unstudied. We investigated this knowledge gap using an intertidal predator–prey system. Dogwhelk ( Nucella lapillus ) chemical cues can limit barnacle ( Semibalanus balanoides ) recruitment by limiting larval settlement. As waves disperse chemicals in coastal environments, we experimentally tested the hypothesis that wave exposure limits dogwhelk NCEs on barnacle recruitment. Shortly before the barnacle recruitment season of 2013 (May–June), we established cages in rocky intertidal habitats in Atlantic Canada under two levels of wave exposure. The cages were used to manipulate the presence and absence of dogwhelks. At the center of each cage, we installed a tile where barnacle pelagic larvae could settle and develop into recruits. Mesh prevented caged dogwhelks from accessing the tiles, but allowed their waterborne cues to reach the tiles. Data collected at the end of the recruitment season indicated that dogwhelk cues limited barnacle recruitment in wave-sheltered habitats but had no effect on recruitment in wave-exposed habitats. These findings suggest that predicting predator NCEs on prey demography may require environmental information related to the ability of prey to locate predators.

Description: Artificial additions of nutrients of differing forms such as salmon carcasses and analog pellets (i.e. pasteurized fishmeal) have been proposed as a means of stimulating aquatic productivity and enhancing populations of anadromous and resident fishes. Nutrient mitigation to enhance fish production in stream ecosystems assumes that the central pathway by which effects occur is bottom-up, through aquatic primary and secondary production, with little consideration of reciprocal aquatic-terrestrial pathways. The net outcome (i.e. bottom-up vs. top-down) of adding salmon-derived materials to streams depend on whether or not these subsidies indirectly intensify predation on in situ prey via increases in a shared predator or alleviate such predation pressure. We conducted a 3-year experiment across nine tributaries of the N. Fork Boise River, Idaho, USA, consisting of 500-m stream reaches treated with salmon carcasses (n = 3), salmon carcass analog (n = 3), and untreated control reaches (n = 3). We observed 2–8 fold increases in streambed biofilms in the 2–6 weeks following additions of both salmon subsidy treatments in years 1 and 2 and a 1.5-fold increase in standing crop biomass of aquatic invertebrates to carcass additions in the second year of our experiment. The consumption of benthic invertebrates by stream fishes increased 110–140% and 44–66% in carcass and analog streams in the same time frame, which may have masked invertebrate standing crop responses in years 3 and 4. Resident trout directly consumed 10.0–24.0 g·m −2 ·yr −1 of salmon carcass and 〈1–11.0 g·m −2 ·yr −1 of analog material, which resulted in 1.2–2.9 g·m −2 ·yr −1 and 0.03–1.4 g·m −2 ·yr −1 of tissue produced. In addition, a feedback flux of terrestrial maggots to streams contributed 0.0–2.0 g·m −2 ·yr −1 to trout production. Overall, treatments increased annual trout production by 2–3 fold, though density and biomass were unaffected. Our results indicate the strength of bottom-up and top-down responses to subsidy additions was asymmetrical, with top-down forces masking bottom-up effects that required multiple years to manifest. The findings also highlight the need for nutrient mitigation programs to consider multiple pathways of energy and nutrient flow to account for the complex effects of salmon subsidies in stream-riparian ecosystems.

Description: Host species vary in their propensity to become infected by and transmit parasites, and this variation in host competency can influence parasite transmission within host communities. Host competency is often attributed to morphological, physiological, and behavioral defenses of hosts, but hosts commonly have an additional, lesser studied form of protection: defensive symbionts. For instance, snails are facultatively defended by ectosymbiotic oligochaete worms ( Chaetogaster limnaei ) that consume free-living trematode parasites, bacteria protect amphibians from the fungus that causes chytridiomycosis, and ants protect plants from herbivores. In addition to reducing infection on their hosts, defensive symbionts may influence parasite transmission to other hosts by redirecting parasites toward other hosts and/or removing parasites from the system. We explored these possibilities by examining the relative roles of community composition and the presence of defensive symbionts ( C. limnaei ) in determining trematode infection intensity among second intermediate host communities composed of snails ( Helisoma trivolvis ) and tadpoles ( Rana catesbeiana ). Parasites were dramatically more successful at infecting snails than tadpoles, which led to more total parasites in host communities where snails were present. In addition, defensive symbionts substantially reduced snail infection intensity and thus reduced the total number of parasites in communities containing symbiont-defended snail hosts. Neither host community composition nor the presence of defensive symbionts on snails influenced individual tadpole infection in our experiments. Therefore, in our experiments, second intermediate host community structure did not influence individual host tadpole infection risk, but did influence total parasite transmission.

Description: Compost amendment to grassland is a novel strategy proposed and demonstrated to increase ecosystem carbon (C) storage. However, the effects of compost applications on biomass production and plant diversity are not well known. We assessed impacts of a one-time compost amendment over 4 yr on plant dynamics in two grazed grassland ecosystems in California: a coastal prairie and valley grassland. The valley grassland was dominated by exotic annual grasses and had significantly lower species diversity than the coastal prairie, which consisted of a mix of perennial and annual grasses and forbs. We observed large and persistent increases in aboveground biomass. Over the 4 study years, aboveground biomass from compost-amended plots increased by 76% ± 21% at the valley grassland and 41% ± 21% at the coastal prairie, compared with controls. Plant N content was also greater from compost-amended plots. There were no major shifts in species richness or abundance at either grassland site. Overall, plant communities at both grasslands were relatively resistant to the compost addition, but responses of some individual species were observed. Notably at the valley grassland, the abundance of forbs decreased slightly, while the abundance of grasses increased. The abundance of two noxious weeds did not change as a result of the compost amendment. Our results suggest that a single application of composted organic matter used to sequester C provided cobenefits to grassland plant dynamics. The compost amendments produced sustained increases in plant productivity and forage production as well as plant N content without greatly affecting the diversity of these exotic annual grasslands.

Description: Plant invasions substantially impact the ecosystem services provided by forests in urbanizing regions. Knowing where invasion risk is greatest helps target early detection and eradication efforts, but developing an accurate predictive model of invasive species presence and spread on the basis of habitat suitability remains a challenge due to spatial variation in propagule pressure (the number of individuals released) which is likely conflated with suitability. In addition to neighborhood propagule pressure that originates with propagules dispersing from naturalized populations within invaded habitats, we expect residential propagule pressure arising from the widespread use of exotic plants in the yards of single-family residences to be an important driver of invasions, and to notably improve the predictive accuracy of species distribution models (SDMs). To this end, we collected presence/absence data for a widespread forest invader, Ligustrum sinense (Chinese privet) , from 400 stratified random plots located along an urban gradient across the Charlotte, North Carolina metropolitan area. We assessed the relative contribution of residential propagule pressure and neighborhood propagule pressure to improving the predictive performance of a probit SDM for Chinese privet that only contains environmental predictors. Our results indicate that, although the environment-only model predicted the highest geographic area to be at risk of invasion by privet, it also had the highest rate of failure to accurately predict observed privet occurrences as indicated by the omission (incorrectly predicted absence) and commission (incorrectly predicted presence) error rates. Accounting for residential propagule pressure substantially improved model performance by reducing the omission error by nearly 50%, thereby improving upon the ability of the model to predict privet invasion in suboptimal habitat. Given that this increase in detection was accompanied by a decrease in the geographic area predicted at risk, we conclude that SDMs for invasive exotic shrubs and potentially for other synanthropic generalist plants may be highly inefficient when residential propagule pressure is not accounted for. Accounting for residential propagule pressure in models of invasive plants results in a more focused and accurate prediction of the area at risk, thus enabling decision makers to feasibly prioritize regional scale monitoring and control efforts.

Description: Given the limited scope of unaltered, protected areas in most regions, understanding the contributions to imperiled species conservation by landscapes in which habitat elements have been reconfigured is critical. Commercial forestry has been a driver of altered structure and composition of forests and of distribution and character of aquatic systems. In eastern North America, extensive historical wetland drainage reconfigured hydrologic environments from low-gradient wet flats and isolated wetlands to connected networks of linear ditches. Landscapes where both uplands and aquatic environments differ from historic conditions may affect most ecological aspects of semi-aquatic species, including reptiles. Our objective was to determine if habitat selection and use decisions by spotted turtles ( Clemmys guttata ), a rare semi-aquatic species, supported population maintenance in a reconfigured forest landscape in eastern North Carolina, USA. We captured 280 individuals and radiomarked 31 adults to examine habitat selection at multiple spatial scales with paired logistic regression, movements and home ranges with location data and utilization distributions (UDs), survival with a known-fate model, and abundance with N-mixture modeling. Across local and landscape scales, turtles selected features associated with ditches despite abundant, more natural aquatic depressions across the study area. Habitat metrics describing understory closure and substrate characteristics were important at local scales, and closed canopy forest and habitat heterogeneity was positively associated with activity areas at landscape-scale spatial grains. Both movements and home ranges were centered on ditches, and turtles exploited ditches to access mates, nest sites, or uplands for estivation. In this highly reconfigured landscape, this species appeared to have sufficient behavioral plasticity to acquire key resources contributing to high survival and an abundant population. Isolation from road traffic and collection, both which negatively affect turtles elsewhere, was facilitated by limited public access. Our results suggest that conservation and management of rare species should not rely solely on habitat information gained from studies in more pristine areas because such results may not demonstrate the range in variation in behavior that might allow persistence in novel environments, absent key threats.

Description: Nitrogen (N) supply often limits the productivity of temperate forests and is regulated by a complex mix of biological and climatic drivers. In excess, N is linked to a variety of soil, water, and air pollution issues. Here, we use results from an elevation gradient study and historical data from the long-term Hubbard Brook Ecosystem Study (New Hampshire, USA) to examine relationships between changes in climate, especially during winter, and N supply to northern hardwood forest ecosystems. Low elevation plots with less snow, more soil freezing, and more freeze/thaw cycles supported lower rates of N mineralization than high elevation plots, despite having higher soil temperatures and no consistent differences in soil moisture during the growing season. These results are consistent with historical analyses showing decreases in rates of soil N mineralization and inorganic N concentrations since 1973 that are correlated with long-term increases in mean annual temperature, decreases in annual snow accumulation, and a increases in the number of winter thawing degree days. This evidence suggests that changing climate may be driving decreases in the availability of a key nutrient in northern hardwood forests, which could decrease ecosystem production but have positive effects on environmental consequences of excess N.

Description: Surveys of bumble bees and the plants they visit, carried out in 1974 near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Colorado, were repeated in 2007, thus permitting the testing of hypotheses arising from observed climate change over the intervening 33-yr period. As expected, given an increase in average air temperature with climate warming and a declining temperature with increasing elevation, there have been significant shifts toward higher elevation for queens or workers or both, for most bumble bee species, for bumble bee queens when species are combined, and for two focal plant species, with no significant downward shifts. However, contrary to our hypotheses, we failed to observe significant altitudinal changes for some bumble bee species and most plant species, and observed changes in elevation were often less than the upward shift of 317 m required to maintain average temperature. As expected, community flowering phenology shifted toward earlier in the season throughout our study area, but bumble bee phenology generally did not change, resulting in decreased synchrony between bees and plants. However, we were unable to confirm the narrower expectation that phenologies of bumble bee workers and community flowering coincided in 1974 but not in 2007. As expected, because of reduced synchrony between bumble bees and community flowering, bumble bee abundance was reduced in 2007 compared with 1974. Hence, climate change in our study area has apparently resulted primarily in reduced abundance and upward shift in distribution for bumble bees and shift toward earlier seasonality for plant flowering. Quantitative disagreements between climate change expectations and our observations warrant further investigation.

Description: In this paper, we investigate how climate, land use, habitat characteristics, and socioeconomic activities contribute to predict the current potential distributions of the “100 among the world's worst invasive alien species”. We calculated the predictive power of each of the 41 variables for the 95 species including a large number of plants, vertebrates and invertebrates. We then calibrated the species distribution models with a set of appropriate variables for each invasive alien species to predict the potential distribution of these species and identify the major regions of origin of the invasive alien species. We found that climate variables were primarily predictors of the distribution of the global invaders studied. In addition, the habitat characteristics were also important predictors following by the socioeconomic variables such as the nearest distance to airports, seaports and human population density. We show that the potential areas at the highest risk of invasions from these species are located in Western Europe, Eastern United States, Central America, the eastern coast of Australia, and some Indonesian islands. We argue that these potential hotspots of invasions should be monitored in priority to prevent new invasions from these species. This study provides evidence of the importance of considering both habitat characteristics, socioeconomic and climate change factors for the current and future predictions of biological invasions.

Description: Fisheries that operate at large spatial scales and with high intensity have the potential to impact highly migratory species, and it is important to characterize threats to specific breeding populations of these species. We used many-to-many mixed-stock analysis (MSA) ( n  = 408) and microsatellite assignment testing ( n  = 397) to determine source populations for leatherback turtles ( Dermochelys coriacea ) caught as bycatch in the U.S. pelagic longline fishery from 2002 to 2012 in the western North Atlantic. Within the United States, we had bycatch samples from the majority of statistical fishing areas: Gulf of Mexico (GOM), Northeast Distant (NED), Caribbean (CAR), Florida East Coast (FEC), Mid Atlantic Bight (MAB), Northeast Coastal (NEC), South Atlantic Bight (SAB) and Sargasso (SAR). We determined the proportions of turtles from each of nine nesting stocks in the Atlantic in each of the sampled areas. These nesting stocks included Brazil, Costa Rica, Florida, Trinidad, French Guiana, St. Croix, Ghana, Gabon, and South Africa. The MSA revealed that the NED had a lower relative proportion of turtles from Costa Rica than other areas and that the GOM had the highest relative proportion of turtles from Costa Rica. No turtles were assigned to the African rookeries, lending further evidence that turtles from that region forage elsewhere and therefore may not be affected by western North Atlantic fisheries. This work contributes to the ongoing assessment of threats to leatherback turtles in the Regional Management Unit (RMU) of the western North Atlantic, and draws attention to the disproportionate number of turtles from Costa Rica being caught in the Gulf of Mexico; Costa Rica is one of the only populations in the northern Atlantic that is not experiencing significant increases in nest numbers. This approach should be useful in determining population-specific threats to other highly migratory protected species that may depend on segregated foraging areas either within or among species.

Description: Robust models of wildlife population size, spatial distribution, and habitat relationships are needed to more effectively monitor endangered species and prioritize habitat conservation efforts. Remotely sensed data such as airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) and digital color infrared (CIR) aerial photography combined with well-designed field studies can help fill these information voids. We used point count-based distance sampling survey data and LiDAR-fused CIR aerial photography to model density of the Golden-cheeked Warbler ( Setophaga chrysoparia ), an endangered songbird, on the 10 000-ha Balcones Canyonlands National Wildlife Refuge (BCNWR). We developed a novel set of candidate models to explain Golden-cheeked Warbler detection probability and density using habitat covariates characterizing vegetation structure, composition, and complexity as well as habitat fragmentation, topography, and human infrastructure. We had the most model support for covariates calculated using focal means representing a 3.2 ha territory size (100 m radius) vs. 1.8 and 7.0 ha territory sizes. Detection probability decreased with canopy cover and increased with topographic roughness. Golden-cheeked Warbler density increased with canopy cover, was highest at a 7:3 ratio of Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei) to broadleaf tree canopy cover, and decreased with global solar radiation. Predicted warbler densities using 3 min point counts were similar to six estimates from independently collected warbler territory mapping on BCNWR with a mean difference of 6% and a Root Mean Squared Error of 1.88 males/40 ha. The total population size for BCNWR was estimated at 884 Golden-cheeked Warbler males (95% CI 662, 1206) and predicted densities across the refuge ranged from 0.0 to 0.50 male warblers per ha. On the basis of observed habitat relationships, we defined high quality habitat as having at least 60% canopy cover with Ashe juniper comprising 50–90% of the canopy. We estimated 48% of the area at BCNWR managed for Golden-cheeked Warblers was in high quality habitat conditions and identified patches within the lower habitat quality areas (14% of warbler management areas) that had the greatest potential to become high quality habitat with management. Our approach combined robust wildlife surveys with highly scalable remotely sensed data to examine habitat relationships, estimate population size, and identify existing areas of high quality habitat. This method can be applied to other species of conservation interest and can be used with multiple years of remotely sensed data to assess changes in habitat at local to regional scales.

Description: The ecological niche is a prominent theoretical concept in many ecological fields, central to ecological understanding of species interactions and community structure. To better understand this important concept, and the impact it has had on ecology, we used a citation analysis to examine the history of the niche through citation patterns during the 20th century. In particular, we sought to document the spread of the niche across ecological subdisciplines, to evaluate whether the existence of different niche definitions facilitated the spread of the niche, and to see whether the conceptual integration stemming from adoption of the niche has also yielded an integration of the niche literature across subdisciplinary boundaries. We show that the ecological niche has been adopted by a number of subdisciplines, but that this success does not appear to have relied strongly on the different niche definitions, nor has it led to general integration of the niche literature across subdisciplinary boundaries. Our analysis thus not only examines the history of one of ecology's central concepts but also suggests that despite the conceptual unification that resulted from the broad adoption of the niche, a unified niche literature had not emerged by the close of the 20th century.

Description: The processes that transfer nutrients laterally over large distances are limited within terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we present the hypothesis that outbreaking insects can sometimes transport consequential amounts of embodied nutrients over long distances, thereby connecting ecological dynamics across space and leading to potential emergent effects at the landscape scale that have not been specifically addressed heretofore. Based on previously published data on insect population density, individual body mass, and nutrient content, we present initial quantitative estimates of nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes for various outbreaking insect species in different ecosystems. The results suggest that during the phases of major population change within an outbreak cycle, this process may transfer, over a given area, amounts of nutrients that exceed annual input from contemporaneous levels of atmospheric deposition, particularly for phosphorus. In addition, the relative strength of the process was likely even higher in the preindustrial era, especially for nitrogen, due to a weaker anthropogenic influence on atmospheric deposition at that time. The values we have found are comparable to the results from previous studies on 2-D nutrient fluxes by other animals and that have been considered consequential for ecosystem processes. We further illustrate the implications of the process for the spatial distribution of nutrients and resulting ecological complexity and argue that the process is inherently scale dependent, contrary to vertical fluxes like atmospheric deposition. Moreover, we provide suggestions for future studies, both empirical and theoretical, that would better quantify the strength of the process and assess its implications. Given that the productivity of most natural terrestrial ecosystems depends primarily on locally recycled nutrients and that spatial source–sink nutrient dynamics has been shown to have important ecological consequences, the long-distance lateral transfer of nutrients by outbreaking insects appears like a relevant landscape-level process worthwhile of more specific attention.

Description: Despite predictions of poleward and upslope shifts in the distribution of breeding passerines under climate change, studies often report variable responses with some species shifting opposite of the expected direction and others showing range stability. While changes in climate could affect distribution directly, passerines show strong preferences for particular structural vegetation characteristics, suggesting that long-term changes in vegetation may mediate a species' distributional response to climate, and consequently, may be responsible for the observed heterogeneity. We assessed changes in the elevational distribution and occupancy probability of 17 passerine species in Denali National Park, Alaska, from 1995 to 2013 across an elevational gradient containing multiple topographically defined ecotones (treeline and shrubline). An upward distributional shift was pervasive among shrub-tundra species, corresponding with observed expansion of shrub cover at higher elevations. Forest-associated passerines showed a weaker response as a group with some species showing range stability or retraction, while others exhibited modest expansions that were consistent with an advancing treeline ecotone. Denali's mean summer temperature increased significantly over the past century, but remained relatively stable over our study period, implying that longer term changes in climate indirectly influenced bird distribution through changes in woody vegetation. Further, heterogeneity in the response of forest-associated species was consistent with a slower rate of forest development and expansion as compared with shrub colonization. Together, our results indicate that the elevational range dynamics of passerines may be related to species-specific associations with different vegetation communities and variation across these vegetation communities in the timescale over which distributional change is occurring.

Description: Invasive species have substantial impacts across the globe. While management efforts should aim to minimize undesirable impacts, we have a poor understanding of how impacts of a given invasive species vary spatially. Here, we develop a framework for considering heterogeneity of invasive species impacts that allows us to explore the range of possible spatial patterns of impact. This framework incorporates two factors—how invasive species abundance varies among sites (i.e., abundance distributions) and how invasive species impact varies as a function of abundance (i.e., abundance–impact curves). Combining these two factors allows for the creation of probability distributions that represent how invasive species impacts may vary spatially among sites. We used published abundance distributions and inferred abundance–impact curves to generate impact distributions for two problematic invasive species—zebra mussel and Eurasian watermilfoil—across lakes in Wisconsin, USA. Impact distributions of these species tended to be right-skewed (i.e., the majority of sites had low impacts), although the tail thickness varied. We also simulated how a broader range of combinations of invasive species abundance distributions and abundance–impact curves produce different patterns of invasive species impact. These simulations illustrate a remarkable diversity of invasive species spatial impact patterns—probability distributions of impact were left-skewed, right-skewed, bimodal, and normal. Total landscape-level impacts, estimated by summing site-level impacts, were similarly variable depending on the distribution of site-level impacts. Our results indicate that invasive species abundance and abundance–impact curves ultimately affect how invasive species impacts are distributed across the landscape, which has important implications for invasive species management.

Description: Foraging by herbivores alters individual plants and vegetation communities directly, and engineering behaviors such as bioturbation (digging and turning soil) and biodeposition (deposition of feces and urine) can affect soils and physical properties that indirectly influence vegetation and other organisms. Patchy environments often concentrate the activities of animals, potentially increasing the magnitude of their impacts on the vegetative community over time. To evaluate the potential for herbivorous engineers to enhance existing heterogeneity, we quantified the direct and indirect effects of a burrowing herbivore, the pygmy rabbit ( Brachylagus idahoensis ), on soil and vegetation in the sagebrush steppe ecosystem of the western United States, and we evaluated whether the effects were related to duration of occupancy by rabbits. Mounded microtopography (i.e., mima mounds) creates distinct resource islands with relatively tall and dense sagebrush shrubs where pygmy rabbits concentrate burrowing and foraging activities. We quantified soil and vegetation characteristics on mima mounds occupied by rabbits for 1–12 yr and on unoccupied mounds. We expected that browsing would negatively influence slow growing sagebrush shrubs, but that digging and biodeposition would enhance soil nutrients and water infiltration. In addition, we hypothesized that the net effect on sagebrush reproduction would be positive because indirect effects on soil would enhance seed production by mature sagebrush and seedling growth, and because bioturbation would increase seed retention and germination. Pygmy rabbit occupancy had significant cumulative effects on both soil and vegetation properties on occupied mima mounds. Over time, browsing reduced sagebrush canopy cover and percent of individual shrubs that were alive. Soil properties were less influenced by the duration of occupancy of mima mounds than by the localized spatial influence of burrowing; elevated nitrogen levels were associated with burrow entrances. Two measures of sagebrush reproduction (seedling recruitment and inflorescence biomass) increased with duration of burrow occupancy, suggesting that over longer time frames pygmy rabbits enhanced reproduction and recruitment of sagebrush shrubs. Our data demonstrate multiple pathways by which an herbivorous engineer can influence habitat heterogeneity, and they suggest that although pygmy rabbits are inconspicuous on the landscape, the species might play an important role in maintaining and augmenting heterogeneity in the sagebrush steppe.

Description: Key factors affecting metapopulation dynamics of animals include patch size, isolation, and patch quality. For wetland-associated species, hydrology can affect patch availability, connectivity, and potentially habitat quality; and therefore drive metapopulation dynamics. Wetlands occurring on natural river floodplains typically have more dynamic hydrology than anthropogenic wetlands. Our overall objective was to assess the multiyear spatial and temporal variation in occupancy and turnover rates of a semi-aquatic small mammal at two hydrologically distinct wetland complexes. We live-trapped marsh rice rats ( Oryzomys palustris ) for 3 yr and 〉50 000 trap nights at nine wetland patches on the Mississippi River floodplain and 14 patches at a reclaimed surface mine in southern Illinois. We used dynamic occupancy modeling to estimate initial occupancy, detection, colonization, and extinction rates at each complex. Catch per unit effort (rice rats captured/1000 trap nights) was markedly higher at the floodplain site (28.1) than the mining site (8.1). We found no evidence that temperature, rainfall, or trapping effort affected detection probability. Probability of initial occupancy was similar between sites and positively related to patch size. Patch colonization probability at both sites was related negatively to total rainfall 3 weeks prior to trapping, and varied across years differently at each site. We found interacting effects of site and rainfall on extinction probability: extinction increased with total rainfall 3 months prior to trapping but markedly more at the floodplain site than at the mining site. These site-specific patterns of colonization and extinction are consistent with the rice rat metapopulation in the floodplain exhibiting a habitat-tracking dynamic (occupancy dynamics driven by fluctuating quality), whereas the mineland complex behaved more as a classic metapopulation (stochastic colonization & extinction). Our study supports previous work demonstrating metapopulation dynamics in wetland systems being driven by changes in patch quality (via hydrology) rather than solely area and isolation.

Description: While beta diversity has been implicated as a key factor in controlling resilience of communities to stressors, lack of long-term data sets has limited the study of temporal dynamics of beta diversity. With a time series at two sites in excess of 40 yr, we investigated turnover of both species and functional traits in a system stressed by eutrophication and overfishing and undergoing climate change and invasion. The two sites, although located near to each other, differ in water depth (20 cf . 35 m), but both sites have displayed increased abundances of an invasive polychaete since 1990. We tested two hypotheses related to the effect of an invasive species; that taxa richness and turnover would decrease, and trait richness would increase post invasion and that trait turnover would increase between arrival and establishment of the invasive. Generally, we observed different dynamics at the two sites and responses not consistent with our hypotheses. We detected an increase in taxa richness at both sites and an increase in taxa turnover and number of traits at one site only. Trait turnover was higher prior to the invasion, although again only at one site. Disjunctive responses between species and trait turnover occurred, with the invader contributing in a nonrandom fashion to trait turnover. The lack of strong, consistent responses to the arrival and establishment of the invasive, and the decrease in trait turnover, suggests that effects of invasives are not only system- and species-dependent, but also depend on community dynamics of the invaded site, in particular the assembly processes, and historical context.

Description: Seed germination and seedling establishment are central to the distribution and abundance of plant species in wetlands. While fungal and oomycete pathogens are known to affect seed viability and emergence, relatively little is known about which fungi and oomycetes are associated with seeds in the soil or how these species affect seeds and seedlings. We characterized the fungi and oomycetes associated with overwintering seeds in wetlands and determined their potential to influence seed germination and subsequent seedling mortality. Fungi and oomycetes did not affect seed germination, despite the isolation of high frequencies of known seed and seedling pathogens in the fungal genera Alternaria , Peyronellaea , Epicoccum , and Fusarium . However, many of the most frequently isolated fungal species from overwintering seeds were highly virulent to seedlings. While both native and nonnative plant species were tested, we did not observe consistent differences in either seed germination or seedling susceptibility based on the invasive status of plants tested, contrary to what we expected given several established hypotheses for invasive success. The high seedling virulence of fungi from overwintering seeds coupled with the differential abundance of some of the more pathogenic fungi among seeds of different plant species, led us to the conclusion that the fungal pathogens that colonize seeds in the seed bank over winter are likely to strongly impact subsequent seedling establishment in wetlands the following spring despite not reducing overwintering seed germination in the seed bank or differently effecting invasive plant species.

Description: Many aspects of parasite biology critically depend on their hosts, and understanding how host-parasite populations are co-structured can help improve our understanding of the ecology of parasites, their hosts, and host-parasite interactions. This study utilized genetic data collected from raccoons ( Procyon lotor ), and a specialist parasite, the raccoon tick ( Ixodes texanus ), to test for genetic co-structuring of host-parasite populations at both landscape and host scales. At the landscape scale, our analyses revealed a significant correlation between genetic and geographic distance matrices (i.e., isolation by distance) in ticks, but not their hosts. While there are several mechanisms that could lead to a stronger pattern of isolation by distance in tick vs. raccoon datasets, our analyses suggest that at least one reason for the above pattern is the substantial increase in statistical power (due to the ≈8-fold increase in sample size) afforded by sampling parasites. Host-scale analyses indicated higher relatedness between ticks sampled from related vs. unrelated raccoons trapped within the same habitat patch, a pattern likely driven by increased contact rates between related hosts. By utilizing fine-scale genetic data from both parasites and hosts, our analyses help improve our understanding of epidemiology and host ecology.

Description: Concentrations of 22 elements in pinewood were compared with that in frass produced by insects representing the following taxa: Reticulitermes spp. (Rhinotermitidae) , Zootermopsis nevadensis (Termopsidae) , Incisitermes snyderi (Kalotermitidae) , Hylotrupes spp. (Cerambycidae), Heterobostrychus spp. (Bostrichidae) , Lyctus spp. (Bostrichidae) , and representatives of the family Ptinidae (formerly Anobiidae). Twenty elements (Al, B, Ba, Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Ni, P, Pb, Si, Sr, and Zn) were measured using inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES), whereas carbon, hydrogen, and nitrogen percentages were measured using a CHN autoanalyzer. Chromium was the only element present at a statistically lower concentration in all frass types compared to pinewood. A comparison of pinewood to frass from those taxa that fed on pine revealed that Reticulitermes  frass contained significantly higher levels of 15 elements, Zootermopsis 10, Ptinidae 5, Incisitermes 4, and Hylotrupes  1. Only Incisitermes frass showed a significantly higher percent carbon than pinewood and Reticulitermes , Zootermopsis , and Ptinidae showed significantly higher percent nitrogen. Examination of percent approximate digestibility (PAD) indicated that Reticulitermes frass had 14 elements that were ≥200% more concentrated than found in pinewood, whereas Zootermopsis had 6, Lyctus 5, ptinid 4, Hylotrupes and Heterobostrychus 3, and Incisitermes none. This survey of elements in frass indicates that saproxylic insects are, for the most part, not sequestrating but rather recycling (releasing) the store of micronutrients in wood biomass, with the greatest potential contribution to soil nutrient cycles attributable to subterranean termites.

Description: Despite the significant effects of agricultural pest management on crop yield, profit, environmental quality, and sustainability, farmers oftentimes lack data-driven decision support to help optimize pest management strategies. To address this need, we curated a comprehensive data set that consists of pest, pest management, and yield information from 1498 commercial cotton crops in California's San Joaquin Valley between 1997 and 2008. Using this data set, we built a Markov decision process model to identify the optimal management policy of a key cotton pest, Lygus hesperus , that balances the tradeoff between yield loss and the cost of pesticide applications. Our results show that pesticide applications targeting L. hesperus are only economically optimal during the first 2 weeks of June, and pesticide applications were associated with increased risk of an unprofitable harvest. About 46% of the observations in our data set involved at least one pesticide application outside of this optimal window, demonstrating the need for a data-driven approach to crop management. Sensitivity analyses on parameter perturbations and reduced data set sizes suggest that our methodology provides a robust policy-making tool, even in noisy data sets.

Description: The degree of ecological specialization influences the biological performance of species in their natural environment and affects the coexistence of different taxa. However, on a small scale, the diversity of microarthropods that coexist in forest soils and leaf litter seems inordinately high, a situation known as the “enigma of soil animal species diversity”. Since recent studies point to the importance of small-scale heterogeneity to explain this phenomenon, we use interaction networks between microhabitats and their inhabitants to resolve and quantify the community structure (species composition, richness, and diversity) of oribatid mites (Oribatida) in five discrete, patchy substrates—dead wood, lichens, mosses, sod, and tree bark—and in the general leaf litter. Since oribatid mites are ubiquitous in all these microhabitats in temperate forests, the analysis of their community structure in the light of generalization and specialization might help us understand the ecological role of litter. We investigated whether litter acts as a specific microhabitat with the intrinsic characteristics that enable the “enigmatic” high diversity of oribatid mites (Habitat-Hypothesis), if litter acts as a source from which oribatid mite species more or less randomly invade different associated microhabitat-patches (Source-Hypothesis), or if litter only connects patchily distributed microhabitats with specific species compositions (Connector-Hypothesis). In total, 25,162 adult oribatid mite individuals were analyzed, most belonging to the derived group Brachypylina. Species richness, density, and diversity differed among microhabitats with highest values found in mosses and dead wood and lowest on tree bark. In general, specialization of oribatid mite species was low—highest on tree bark and in grass sod—but differed slightly among oribatid mite taxa (Enarthronota, Mixonomata, Nothrina, Brachypylina). The Connector- and Habitat-Hypotheses can explain the distribution of most oribatid mite species but the Source-Hypothesis explains the distribution patterns for only a few species.

Description: Century-old forests in the U.S. upper Midwest and Northeast power much of North America's terrestrial carbon (C) sink, but these forests' production and C sequestration capacity are expected to soon decline as fast-growing early successional species die and are replaced by slower growing late successional species. But will this really happen? Here we marshal empirical data and ecological theory to argue that substantial declines in net ecosystem production (NEP) owing to reduced forest growth, or net primary production (NPP), are not imminent in regrown temperate deciduous forests over the next several decades. Forest age and production data for temperate deciduous forests, synthesized from published literature, suggest slight declines in NEP and increasing or stable NPP during middle successional stages. We revisit long-held hypotheses by EP Odum and others that suggest low-severity, high-frequency disturbances occurring in the region's aging forests will, against intuition, maintain NEP at higher-than-expected rates by increasing ecosystem complexity, sustaining or enhancing NPP to a level that largely offsets rising C losses as heterotrophic respiration increases. This theoretical model is also supported by biological evidence and observations from the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment in Michigan, USA. Ecosystems that experience high-severity disturbances that simplify ecosystem complexity can exhibit substantial declines in production during middle stages of succession. However, observations from these ecosystems have exerted a disproportionate influence on assumptions regarding the trajectory and magnitude of age-related declines in forest production. We conclude that there is a wide ecological space for forests to maintain NPP and, in doing so, lessens the declines in NEP, with significant implications for the future of the North American carbon sink. Our intellectual frameworks for understanding forest C cycle dynamics and resilience need to catch up to our more complex and nuanced understanding of ecological succession.

Description: Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and climate on the abundance of five bird species in the Central United States that have habitat requirements ranging from grassland and shrubland to forest. We substituted space for time to examine potential impacts of a changing climate by assessing climate and land cover relationships over a broad latitudinal gradient. We found positive and negative relationships of climate and land cover factors with avian abundances. Habitat variables drove patterns of abundance in migratory and resident species, although climate was also influential in predicting abundance for some species occupying more open habitat (i.e., prairie warbler, blue-winged warbler, and northern bobwhite). Abundance of northern bobwhite increased with winter temperature and was the species exhibiting the most significant effect of climate. Models for birds primarily occupying early successional habitats performed better with a combination of habitat and climate variables whereas models of species found in contiguous forest performed best with land cover alone. These varied species-specific responses present unique challenges to land managers trying to balance species conservation over a variety of land covers. Management activities focused on increasing forest cover may play a role in mitigating effects of future climate by providing habitat refugia to species vulnerable to projected changes. Conservation efforts would be best served focusing on areas with high species abundances and an array of habitats. Future work managing forests for resilience and resistance to climate change could benefit species already susceptible to climate impacts.

Description: Pollution can affect wildlife directly through toxicity and indirectly through changes in biotic and abiotic factors, however, how these mechanisms interact in affecting free-ranging animals remains poorly understood. By examining effects on individual fitness proxies, we aimed to determine the mechanisms behind documented amphibian and reptile declines in barren landscapes where vegetation was nearly decimated due to atmospheric metal and sulfur deposition from smelting operations in Sudbury, Ontario, Canada. We examined individual characteristics of snakes (Thamnophis sirtalis, Storeria occipitomaculata ) and frogs (Lithobates clamitans , L .  pipiens , L .  septentrionalis ) in replicated barren and reference sites, including standard metabolic rates (in snakes), body condition (all species), female reproductive status (snakes), limb deformity (frogs), and fluctuating asymmetry (all species). Frogs in barren sites (except L .  septentrionalis ) were in poor body condition, and all but one case of limb deformities in frogs were found in barren sites. However, neither frogs nor snakes exhibited elevated frequency of fluctuating asymmetry in barren sites. Standard metabolic rates (SMR) were not elevated in either snake species, suggesting that metal toxicity does not present an energetic burden. Instead, female T .  sirtalis from barren sites exhibited lower SMR and were in poor body condition, which is a predicted response to reduced food intake. By contrast, SMR and body condition of S .  occipitomaculata were not different between barren and reference sites. While physiological responses differed between T .  sirtalis and S .  occipitomaculata , both species exhibited lower reproductive rates (proportion of pregnant females) in barren sites compared to reference sites. Thus, energy deficiency may explain reduced reproduction in T .  sirtalis while reduced availability of suitable gestation microhabitat may be a limiting factor for S .  occipitomaculata . Populations in smelting-impacted habitats include individuals with potentially compromised fitness. The low values of our measured fitness proxies appear to have resulted from pollution-induced changes in biotic and abiotic factors, in addition to (for frogs) or rather than (for snakes) from the direct toxicity. These results suggest that impact assessment based solely on toxicological data and species distributions can underestimate the full impacts of pollution, highlighting the need for integrated examination at multiple levels of biological organization.

Description: We evaluated the contribution of interspecific interactions, intraspecific processes, and environmental forcing to variation in speciessa' abundance in a habitat undergoing rapid successional change. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical approach to a 29-yr time series of territory density of seven landbird species at a site in coastal California where secondary plant succession has occurred. We found that interspecific interactions were the least important driver in our system, explaining between 0% and 5% of variation. The combined effects of vegetation and rainfall variation explained 6% to 30% of variation in species trends. Intraspecific processes explained between 0% and 39% of variation. Between 27% and 90% of variation was attributed to unexplained variation. Our results demonstrate that in the system studied, interspecific interactions among landbirds are relatively unimportant. These results suggest that in some cases it may be valid to model projections of individual populations to predict community responses to future conditions; however, this conclusion should be interpreted with caution because interspecific interactions in our community did not include novel interactions that could result from distributional shifts in species ranges.

Description: Knowledge of the spatial and temporal changes caused by episodic disturbances and seasonal variability is essential for understanding the dynamics of mangrove forests at the landscape scale, and for building a baseline that allows detection of the effects of future environmental change. In combination with LiDAR data, we calculated four vegetation indices from 150 Landsat TM images from 1985 to 2011 in order to detect seasonal changes and distinguish them from disturbances due to hurricanes and chilling events in a mangrove-dominated coastal landscape. We found that normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) performed best in identifying both seasonal and event-driven episodic changes. Mangrove responses to chilling and hurricane events exhibited distinct spatial patterns. Severe damage from intense chilling events was concentrated in the interior dwarf and transition mangrove forests with tree heights less than 4 m, while severe damage from intense hurricanes was limited to the mangrove forest near the coast, where tree heights were more than 4 m. It took 4–7 months for damage from intense chilling events and hurricanes to reach their full extent, and took 2–6 yr for the mangrove forest to recover from these disturbances. There was no significant trend in the vegetation changes represented by NDMI over the 27-yr period, but seasonal signals from both dwarf and fringe mangrove forests were discernible. Only severe damage from hurricanes and intense chilling events could be detected in Landsat images, while damage from weak chilling events could not be separated from the background seasonal change.

Description: Forest management and ungulate herbivory are extant drivers of herbaceous-layer community composition and diversity. We conducted a white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) exclosure experiment across a managed landscape to determine how deer impacts interact with the type of forest management system in influencing herb-layer (all vascular plants 〈 0.5 m tall) species richness and composition. Our study took place 3 yr after harvest in a deciduous forest landscape being managed through even-aged (~4.1 ha openings) and uneven-aged (~1.4 ha openings) silvicultural systems. We expected the severity of deer impacts on herb layer species richness and composition to vary according to opening position, opening size, and the spatial scale of inference. At forest stand and landscape scales, species richness within silvicultural openings was greater outside compared to inside deer exclosures, and did not differ according to deer access in edges or the forest matrix. However, greater levels of species richness associated with deer access were driven by infrequently occurring forbs, and overall species composition did not differ. Notably, these species were not exotics or ferns. Deer reduced the density of large saplings and blackberry ( Rubus spp.) shrubs in the smaller openings characteristic of uneven-aged management stands, but had no effect on sapling density in the larger openings characteristic of even-aged management stands. This result extends the forage maturation hypothesis to silvicultural systems, and is consistent with predictions that plant tolerance and avoidance of herbivory increase with resource availability. Deer may have facilitated the establishment of forbs in recently created silvicultural openings by temporarily slowing sapling regeneration, creating establishment sites through physical disturbance, and seed dispersal via epizoochory and endozoochory. This outcome is contingent upon declining deer visitation rates as woody vegetation matures as well as distance from source populations of exotic species. We conclude that ecological context, such as local ungulate abundance, disturbance, and landscape factors, influence how ungulates interact with forest management systems.

Description: Heterotrophic respiration (HR), the aerobic and anaerobic processes mineralizing organic matter, is a key carbon flux but one impossible to measure at scales significantly larger than small experimental plots. This impedes our ability to understand carbon and nutrient cycles, benchmark models, or reliably upscale point measurements. Given that a new generation of highly mechanistic, genomic-specific global models is not imminent, we suggest that a useful step to improve this situation would be the development of “Decomposition Functional Types” (DFTs). Analogous to plant functional types (PFTs), DFTs would abstract and capture important differences in HR metabolism and flux dynamics, allowing modelers and experimentalists to efficiently group and vary these characteristics across space and time. We argue that DFTs should be initially informed by top-down expert opinion, but ultimately developed using bottom-up, data-driven analyses, and provide specific examples of potential dependent and independent variables that could be used. We present an example clustering analysis to show how annual HR can be broken into distinct groups associated with global variability in biotic and abiotic factors, and demonstrate that these groups are distinct from (but complementary to) already-existing PFTs. A similar analysis incorporating observational data could form the basis for future DFTs. Finally, we suggest next steps and critical priorities: collection and synthesis of existing data; more in-depth analyses combining open data with rigorous testing of analytical results; using point measurements and realistic forcing variables to constrain process-based models; and planning by the global modeling community for decoupling decomposition from fixed site data. These are all critical steps to build a foundation for DFTs in global models, thus providing the ecological and climate change communities with robust, scalable estimates of HR.

Description: Management of wetland ecosystems that are tightly coupled with human systems typically requires balancing multiple objectives to ensure that a range of ecosystem services are provided for the benefit of society. We describe how adopting a complex systems approach may provide managers with the appropriate conceptual tools to achieve social and ecological objectives in a multifunctional wetland landscape. We illustrate the applicability of the approach using the Grasslands Ecological Area (GEA) in California as a case study. Human intervention has shaped and reshaped the GEA over the past century, affecting the ability of the landscape to provide ecosystem services. Ecological disaster in the 1980s precipitated transformative change in the management system toward an approach that adopts many of the recommended actions for complexity. Present-day management, which balances multiple social and ecological objectives, has led to improved water quality, restoration of wetland habitats, and a general increase in system complexity at the landscape scale. New research and real-time monitoring systems facilitate adaptive management and heterogeneous responses of wetland management entities. We argue that taking a complex systems approach to management in the GEA provides a common, and inclusive, conceptual model for all stakeholders and may lead to a more sustainable and ecologically resilient landscape over the long term.

Description: In an environment that is changing due to anthropogenic processes, managers responsible for conservation of threatened species need to know environmental limits beyond which those species are at risk of extinction. We demonstrate estimation of environmental limits for a threatened species using a novel combination of response modeling techniques. Our study species was Litoria olongburensis (wallum sedgefrog), which has a biphasic lifecycle (aquatic larvae and terrestrial adult phases) with larvae developing in naturally acidic wetlands of coastal sandy lowlands (“wallum”) of subtropical eastern Australia. Land development in, and around, areas occupied by the frog is the main cause of the species’ decline, while climate change is emerging as a new threat. The species will continue to decline where these processes destroy, fragment or degrade habitat. We surveyed waterbodies throughout the latitudinal range of the species’ distribution, recording wallum sedgefrog density and environmental variables including abiotic waterbody characteristics, key vegetation types, potential competitors and potential predators. For each environmental variable, we tested the fit of increasingly complex response models to the highest possible quantile of wallum sedgefrog density. The best-fitting model indicated the most likely response, if any, to the variable. This model was then applied to estimate environmental limits. Our analysis indicated wallum sedgefrogs were less likely to occur in waterbodies with pH outside 3.53–4.61 (± 0.11) and maximum water depth outside 23.4–46.0 (± 3.5) cm, and their density decreased with increasing densities of eastern sedgefrogs, wallum froglets and common froglets. The optimal pH levels and water depths indicated by our analysis provide a necessary baseline for predicting and responding to impacts on wallum sedgefrogs caused by changes in land use or climate. The negative relationship with eastern sedgefrogs supports the hypothesis that competition from eastern sedgefrogs is the mechanism that limits occurrence of wallum sedgefrogs in higher pH wetlands. The modeling framework that we developed for our study can be applied to improve management of other species exposed to anthropogenic threats including climate change.

Description: Distributional limits of many tropical species in Florida are ultimately determined by tolerance to low temperature. An unprecedented cold spell during 2–11 January 2010, in South Florida provided an opportunity to compare the responses of tropical American crocodiles with warm-temperate American alligators and to compare the responses of nonnative Burmese pythons with native warm-temperate snakes exposed to prolonged cold temperatures. After the January 2010 cold spell, a record number of American crocodiles ( n  = 151) and Burmese pythons ( n  = 36) were found dead. In contrast, no American alligators and no native snakes were found dead. American alligators and American crocodiles behaved differently during the cold spell. American alligators stopped basking and retreated to warmer water. American crocodiles apparently continued to bask during extreme cold temperatures resulting in lethal body temperatures. The mortality of Burmese pythons compared to the absence of mortality for native snakes suggests that the current population of Burmese pythons in the Everglades is less tolerant of cold temperatures than native snakes. Burmese pythons introduced from other parts of their native range may be more tolerant of cold temperatures. We documented the direct effects of cold temperatures on crocodiles and pythons; however, evidence of long-term effects of cold temperature on their populations within their established ranges remains lacking. Mortality of crocodiles and pythons outside of their current established range may be more important in setting distributional limits.

Description: In the Falkland Islands, islands with invasive rats have fewer passerine species compared to islands without rats. On islands on which rats have been eradicated, passerine species richness is indistinguishable from that found on islands historically free of rats, but community composition differs between these two island types. In particular, the most dominant species on historically rat-free islands, Cinclodes antarcticus , is less abundant and prevalent on eradicated islands. We compared passerine energy flow on islands with rats, islands from which rats have been eradicated, and islands on which rats were historically absent. Passerine communities on islands historically without rats used nine times more energy than on islands with rats present. Despite equivalent passerine species richness, passerine energy flow was approximately half on islands from which rats had been eradicated compared to historically rat-free islands. Because passerine energy flow was determined by community composition and not by species richness, passerine species within this community appear to be functionally complementary and not functionally redundant. At least one species, C. antarcticus , plays an irreplaceable role. Our results also document the dramatic and lingering effects of invasive species following their eradication, and the importance of species complementarity for the resilience of community properties.

Description: Dam removal and other fish barrier removal projects in western North America are assumed to boost freshwater productivity via the transport of marine-derived nutrients from recolonizing Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.). In anticipation of the removal of two hydroelectric dams on the Elwha River in Washington State, we tested this hypothesis with a salmon carcass addition experiment. Our study was designed to examine how background nutrient dynamics and benthic food webs vary seasonally, and how these features respond to salmon subsidies. We conducted our experiment in six side channels of the Elwha River, each with a spatially paired reference and treatment reach. Each reach was sampled on multiple occasions from October 2007 to August 2008, before and after carcass placement. We evaluated nutrient limitation status; measured water chemistry, periphyton, benthic invertebrates, and juvenile rainbow trout ( O. mykiss ) response; and traced salmon-derived nutrient uptake using stable isotopes. Outside of winter, algal accrual was limited by both nitrogen and phosphorous and remained so even in the presence of salmon carcasses. One month after salmon addition, dissolved inorganic nitrogen levels doubled in treatment reaches. Two months after addition, benthic algal accrual was significantly elevated. We detected no changes in invertebrate or fish metrics, with the exception of 15 N enrichment. Natural seasonal variability was greater than salmon effects for the majority of our response metrics. Yet seasonality and synchronicity of nutrient supply and demand are often overlooked in nutrient enhancement studies. Timing and magnitude of salmon-derived nitrogen utilization suggest that uptake of dissolved nutrients was favored over direct consumption of carcasses. The highest proportion of salmon-derived nitrogen was incorporated by herbivores (18–30%) and peaked 1–2 months after carcass addition. Peak nitrogen enrichment in predators (11–16%) occurred 2–3 months after addition. All taxa returned to background δ 15 N levels by 7 months. Since this study was conducted, both dams on the Elwha River were removed over 2011–2014 to open over 90% of the basin to anadromous fishes. We anticipate that as the full portfolio of salmon species expands through the basin, nutrient supply and demand will come into better balance.

Description: Building communities that are resilient and adaptive to climate change requires the development of education strategies that train community members in higher order thinking skills that can be used to solve complex environmental problems. This study provides an empirical test of hypotheses within social-ecological systems resilience theory that have suggested metacognitive learning strategies could increase resilience thinking skills such as scenarios thinking, systems thinking, and the ability to interpret and apply ecological data in complex problem solving. During a 6-week long ecology unit with 108 seventh-grade students, we taught half the students using standard inquiry teaching methods and the other half using the same method, with the addition of a daily metacognitive learning intervention. We investigated the short-term (after six weeks of intervention) and long-term (1 yr after the intervention ended) effects of the intervention on student's metacognitive ability and resilience thinking skills. Over the long term, we found a modest increase in the metacognitive ability of students who received the daily metacognitive journaling exercise. Interview data suggest that the structured metacognitive practice did most to improve the resilience thinking level of students who had low resilience thinking ability prior to the intervention period. However, the interaction between pre-treatment ability level and the treatment group was not detected in the written assessment data. These data suggest that the metacognitive learning intervention we used can benefit metacognitive ability over the long term, but has limited transferability to resilience thinking skills for most students. We suggest additional instructional practices for implementing metacognitive teaching approaches that could enhance the generalizability of their benefits across resilience thinking skills and student's ability levels.

Description: Plant phenology research has gained increasing attention because of the sensitivity of phenology to climate change and its consequences for ecosystem function. Recent technological development has made it possible to gather invaluable data at a variety of spatial and ecological scales. Despite our ability to observe phenological change at multiple scales, the mechanistic basis of phenology is still not well understood. Integration of multiple disciplines, including ecology, evolutionary biology, climate science, and remote sensing, with long-term monitoring data across multiple spatial scales is needed to advance understanding of phenology. We review the mechanisms and major drivers of plant phenology, including temperature, photoperiod, and winter chilling, as well as other factors such as competition, resource limitation, and genetics. Shifts in plant phenology have significant consequences on ecosystem productivity, carbon cycling, competition, food webs, and other ecosystem functions and services. We summarize recent advances in observation techniques across multiple spatial scales, including digital repeat photography, other complementary optical measurements, and solar-induced fluorescence, to assess our capability to address the importance of these scale-dependent drivers. Then, we review phenology models as an important component of earth system modeling. We find that the lack of species-level knowledge and observation data leads to difficulties in the development of vegetation phenology models at ecosystem or community scales. Finally, we recommend further research to advance understanding of the mechanisms governing phenology and the standardization of phenology observation methods across networks. With the opportunity for “big data” collection for plant phenology, we envision a breakthrough in process-based phenology modeling.

Description: Climate change is having profound impacts on Arctic ecosystems with important implications for coastal productivity and food web dynamics. We investigated seasonal variations in resource use of 16 invertebrate taxa in lagoon ecosystems along the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast using a combination of fatty acid (FA) biomarkers, bulk stable carbon isotope measurements of whole animals, and compound-specific stable carbon isotope measurements of total lipid extracts and individual FAs. Invertebrates were collected during full-ice cover (April), ice breakup (June), and open water (August) periods. Amphipods ( Onisimus glacialis ) had higher proportions of 18:2n-6 and 18:3n-3 FAs in April than in the other months. These elevated markers were accompanied by relatively low bulk and 18:2n-6 δ 13 C values, indicating proportionally higher contributions from terrestrial/freshwater sources in April. A wider range of invertebrates examined during June and August showed increases in algae-specific markers and higher proportions of essential FAs (e.g., 22:6n-3 [docosahexaenoic acid] and 20:5n-3 [eicosapentaenoic acid]) later in the summer. There were also marked differences in FA characteristics among invertebrates that highlighted differential feeding modes. For example, proportions of bacterial FAs were generally higher in deposit-feeding invertebrates than in suspension feeders. These results highlight the current role of diverse carbon sources to Arctic coastal food webs, which may change with future warming.

Description: Reliable estimates of diet to tissue fractionation of fatty acid (FA) stable carbon isotopes are essential for the development of techniques employing these biomarkers. In this work, Atlantic pollock ( Pollachius virens ) was used as a model species to investigate fractionation arising from metabolic processes during assimilation of dietary FA into serum and liver; we also examined fractionation occurring from mobilization of FA from liver during fasting. Pollock were fed diets containing FA of known isotopic composition, and serum and liver were collected postprandially and after fasting. Lipids were isolated from these tissues, and four polyunsaturated FA (PUFA), 18:2n-6, 18:3n-3, 20:5n-3, and 22:6n-3, within triacylglycerols (TAG), a specific lipid class associated with fat storage, were analyzed for their stable carbon isotope ratios. For 18:2n-6, 20:5n-3, and 22:6n-3, there was no discrimination between diet and serum in postprandially sampled fish, suggesting that fractionation did not occur during hydrolysis and esterification for most PUFA examined here during digestion and transfer into serum. There was a similar lack of fractionation for all four FA between fasted liver and serum, indicating that the assembly of these FA into TAG and their release into serum were not associated with fractionation. However, apparent fractionation was variable and inconsistent for all FA between diet and postprandial liver, indicating a failure of liver TAG to fully reflect the new diet. These data will allow δ 13 C values of three PUFA in postprandial serum to be incorporated into mixing models to estimate recent diet in gadoids. Further controlled feeding studies, under conditions that elicit physiological responses that are similar to those of fish in their natural environment, will be necessary before reliable estimates of longer-term diet, derived from δ 13 C in liver FA, will be possible.

Description: Resources whose abundance is not affected by the density of the consumer population, namely donor-controlled resources, are ubiquitous. Donor-controlled resources can act as food subsidies when they sustain consumer populations at higher densities than what would be predicted without donor-controlled dynamics. Herbivore populations that have access to food subsidies may reach and maintain high densities, with potential major ecological and economic consequences. A better understanding of the roles of food subsidies on temperate herbivores will likely be achieved by simultaneously taking into account other drivers of demographic variations such as winter severity. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the use of a donor-controlled food resource that may act as a food subsidy, namely balsam fir ( Abies balsamea ), and winter severity act together to shape the patterns of overwinter mass loss in a large herbivore population (white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus ). We monitored weather conditions, diet, habitat use, and mass loss of female deer during two highly contrasted winters. During an exceptionally milder winter, characterized by shallower snow depth and warmer windchill temperatures, female deer shifted their diet toward resources usually covered by snow during typical winters. Surprisingly, the rate of body mass loss remained similar during the milder and the harsher winter. The rate of body mass loss rather decreased with the use of balsam fir stands during the harsher winter, but increased with that same variable during the milder winter. Our study revealed that deer can alleviate overwinter mass loss by using a donor-controlled habitat type temporally uncoupled from browsing, but that this benefit is climate dependent. This study represents an additional step to address the largely unexplored concept of how temporal uncoupling between resources and consumer dynamics may contribute to sustain consumer populations at higher densities than predicted without considering donor-controlled dynamics.

Description: In the southwest United States, the current prolonged warm drought is similar to the predicted future climate change scenarios for the region. This study aimed to determine patterns in vegetation response to the early 21st century drought across multiple biomes. We hypothesized that different biomes (forests, shrublands, and grasslands) would have different relative sensitivities to both climate drivers (precipitation and temperature) and legacy effects (previous-year's productivity). We tested this hypothesis at eight Ameriflux sites in various Southwest biomes using NASA Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 2001 to 2013. All sites experienced prolonged dry conditions during the study period. The impact of combined precipitation and temperature on Southwest ecosystems at both annual and sub-annual timescales was tested using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). All biomes studied had critical sub-annual climate periods during which precipitation and temperature influenced production. In forests, annual peak greenness (EVI max ) was best predicted by 9-month SPEI calculated in July (i.e., January–July). In shrublands and grasslands, EVI max was best predicted by SPEI in July through September, with little effect of the previous year's EVI max . Daily gross ecosystem production (GEP) derived from flux tower data yielded further insights into the complex interplay between precipitation and temperature. In forests, GEP was driven by cool-season precipitation and constrained by warm-season maximum temperature. GEP in both shrublands and grasslands was driven by summer precipitation and constrained by high daily summer maximum temperatures. In grasslands, there was a negative relationship between temperature and GEP in July, but no relationship in August and September. Consideration of sub-annual climate conditions and the inclusion of the effect of temperature on the water balance allowed us to generalize the functional responses of vegetation to predicted future climate conditions. We conclude that across biomes, drought conditions during critical sub-annual climate periods could have a strong negative impact on vegetation production in the southwestern United States.

Description: In seasonal environments, organisms are expected to optimally schedule reproduction within an annual range of environmental conditions. Latitudinal gradients generate a range of seasonality to which we can expect adaptations to have evolved, and can be used to explore drivers of timing strategies across species’ distribution ranges. This study compares the timing of egg hatching in four seabird species (Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica, black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, common guillemot Uria aalge , and Brünnich's guillemot U. lomvia ) covering a subarctic to Arctic latitudinal gradient along the Norwegian coast to Svalbard (65–79°N). Hatching was significantly delayed by an estimated 1.7, 2.3, and 1.9 d per latitudinal degree for puffins, kittiwakes, and common guillemots, respectively, but was not delayed for Brünnich's guillemots. Hatching distributions revealed an increase in intra-annual breeding synchronicity along a latitudinal gradient for kittiwakes only, whereas the two guillemots exhibited high hatching synchronicity at all colonies. We used this large-scale, multispecies timing data series to discuss constraints, adaptations, and mechanisms affecting breeding timing, a necessary step to recognize risks to populations and predict future ecosystem change.

Description: Predators can influence prey directly through consumption or indirectly through nonconsumptive effects (NCEs) by altering prey behavior, morphology, and life history. We investigated whether predator-avoidance behaviors by larval long-toed salamanders ( Ambystoma macrodactylum ) in lakes with nonnative trout result in NCEs on morphology and development. Field studies in lakes with and without trout were corroborated by experimental enclosures, where prey were exposed only to visual and chemical cues of predators. We found that salamanders in lakes with trout were consistently smaller than in lakes without trout: 38% lower weight, 24% shorter body length, and 29% shorter tail length. Similarly, salamanders in protective enclosures grew 2.9 times slower when exposed to visual and olfactory trout cues than when no trout cues were present. Salamanders in trout-free lakes and enclosures were 22.7 times and 1.48 times, respectively, more likely to metamorphose during the summer season than those exposed to trout in lakes and/or their cues. Observed changes in larval growth rate and development likely resulted from a facultative response to predator-avoidance behavior and demonstrate NCEs occurred even when predation risk was only perceived. Reduced body size and growth, as well as delayed metamorphosis, could have ecological consequences for salamander populations existing with fish if those effects carry-over into lower recruitment, survival, and fecundity.

Description: We evaluated how dispersal limitation affected spatial variation in the species composition of fungivorous insect communities inhabiting fruiting bodies of bracket fungi on scattered deadwoods. The insect communities showed significant distance decay of similarity pattern among deadwoods, which was not fully explained by differences in environmental conditions. To investigate whether insect dispersal limitation could explain the distance-decay pattern, we analyzed mitochondrial haplotype data; limited dispersal is expected to generate an isolation-by-distance pattern of genetic structure in component species. However, genetic distance between deadwoods was not correlated with geographic distance in any species, and a simulation study suggested that the absence of genetic structure refutes the dispersal limitation hypothesis even when the resolution of genetic differences is not high, as in our study. Thus, dispersal limitation did not contribute to the observed community patterns within our study site, suggesting that unmeasured environmental factors may have played an important role. Our study demonstrates that genetic data can help determine whether dispersal limitation of component species is the primary cause of observed distance decay in community similarity.

Description: As global warming advances, there is a growing concern about the impact of extreme weather events on ecosystems. In the Arctic, more frequent unseasonal warm spells and rain-on-snow events in winter cause changes in snow-pack properties, including ground icing. Such extreme weather events are known to have severe effects across trophic levels, for instance, causing die-offs of large herbivores. However, the extent to which individuals and populations are able to buffer such events through behavioral plasticity is poorly understood. Here, we analyze responses in space use to rain-on-snow and icing events, and their fitness correlates, in wild reindeer in high-Arctic Svalbard. Range displacement among GPS-collared females occurred mainly in icy winters to areas with less ice, lower over-winter body mass loss, lower mortality rate, and higher subsequent fecundity, than the departure area. Our study provides rare empirical evidence that mammals may buffer negative effects of climate change and extreme weather events by adjusting behavior in highly stochastic environments. Under global warming, behavioral buffering may be important for the long-term population persistence in mobile species with long generation time and therefore limited ability for rapid evolutionary adaptation.

Description: We use data collected on 18, 1-ha live trapping grids monitored from 1994 through 2005 and on five of those grids through 2013 in the mesic northwestern United States to illustrate the complexity of the deer mouse ( Peromyscus maniculatus )/Sin Nombre virus (SNV) host-pathogen system. Important factors necessary to understand zoonotic disease ecology include those associated with distribution and population dynamics of reservoir species as well as infection dynamics. Results are based on more than 851,000 trap nights, 16,608 individual deer mice and 10,572 collected blood samples. Deer mice were distributed throughout every habitat we sampled and were present during every sampling period in all habitats except high altitude habitats over 1900 m. Abundance varied greatly among locations with peak numbers occurring mostly during fall. However, peak rodent abundance occurred during fall, winter and spring during various years on three grids trapped 12 months/yr. Prevalence of antibodies to SNV averaged 3.9% to 22.1% but no grids had mice with antibodies during every month. The maximum period without antibody-positive mice ranged from 1 to 52 months, or even more at high altitude grids where deer mice were not always present. Months without antibody-positive mice were more prevalent during fall than spring. Population fluctuations were not synchronous over broad geographic areas and antibody prevalences were not well spatially consistent, differing greatly over short distances. We observed an apparently negative, but nonstatistically significant relationship between average antibody prevalence and average deer mouse population abundance and a statistically significant positive relationship between the average number of antibody positive mice and average population abundance. We present data from which potential researchers can estimate the effort required to adequately describe the ecology of a rodent-borne viral system. We address different factors affecting population dynamics and hantavirus antibody prevalence and discuss the path to understanding a complex rodent-borne disease system as well as the obstacles in that path.

Description: Understanding plant–plant facilitation is critical for predicting how plant community function will respond to changing disturbance and climate. In longleaf pine ( Pinus palustris Mill.) ecosystems of the southeastern United States, understanding processes that affect pine reproduction is imperative for conservation efforts that aim to maintain ecosystem resilience across its wide geographic range and edaphic gradients. Variation in wildland fire and plant–plant interactions may be overlooked in “coarse filter” restoration management, where actions are often prescribed over a variety of ecological conditions with an assumed outcome. For example, hardwood reduction techniques are commonly deemed necessary for ecological restoration of longleaf pine ecosystems, as hardwoods are presumed competitors with longleaf pine seedlings. Natural regeneration dynamics are difficult to test experimentally given the infrequent and irregular mast seed events of the longleaf pine. Using a long-term, large-scale restoration experiment and a long-term monitoring data site at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (USA), this study explores the influence of native fire-intolerant oaks on longleaf regeneration. We test for historical observations of hardwood facilitation against the null hypothesis of competitive exclusion. Our results provide evidence of hardwood facilitation on newly germinated longleaf pine seedlings (〈2 yr old) after two mast seeding events (1996, 2011). Using regression-tree and Kaplan–Meier survival analyses, we found that deciduous oak midstory density was the most significant variable associated with longleaf pine seedling survival rates in the first 2 yr after germination. We found that as few as 43 oak midstory stems ha −1 were sufficient to facilitate seedling survival, but as many as 1400 stems ha −1 maintained facilitation without competitive exclusion of seedlings. We found that 1.5-yr-old pine seedlings were more moisture stressed under more open canopy conditions when compared to those immediately adjacent to a midstory oak canopy. Recognition that deciduous oaks are important facilitators of longleaf seedling establishment on xeric sites represents a significant departure from conventional wisdom and current management practices that has largely focused on competitive exclusion. This points to a critical role of a deciduous oak midstory of moderate densities for long-term ecosystem resilience in xeric longleaf pine ecosystems in light of climate uncertainty.

Description: Effective species conservation and management requires information on species distribution patterns, which is challenging for highly mobile and cryptic species that may be subject to multiple anthropogenic stressors across international boundaries. Understanding species–habitat relationships can improve the assessment of trends and distribution by explicitly allowing high-resolution data on habitats to inform abundance estimation and the identification of protected areas. In this study, we aggregated an unprecedented set of survey data of a marine top predator, the harbor porpoise ( Phocoena phocoena ), collected in the UK (SCANS II, Dogger Bank), Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark, to develop seasonal habitat-based density models for the central and southern North Sea. Visual survey data were collected over 9 yr (2005–2013) by means of dedicated line-transect surveys, taking into account the proportion of missed sightings. Generalized additive models of porpoise density were fitted to 156,630 km of on-effort survey data with 14,356 sightings of porpoise groups. Selected predictors included static and dynamic variables, such as depth, distance to shore and to sandeel ( Ammodytes spp.) grounds, sea surface temperature (SST), proxies for fronts, and day length. Day length and the spatial distribution of daily SST proved to be good proxies for “season,” allowing predictions in both space and time. The density models captured seasonal distribution shifts of porpoises across international boundaries. By combining the large-scale international SCANS II survey with the more frequent, small-scale national surveys, it has been possible to provide seasonal maps that will be used to assist the EU Habitats and Marine Strategy Framework Directives in effectively assessing the conservation status of harbor porpoises. Moreover, our results can facilitate the identification of regions where human activities and disturbances are likely to impact the population and are especially relevant for marine spatial planning, which requires accurate fine-scale maps of species distribution to assess risks of increasing human activities at sea.

Description: Land use changes such as deforestation and agricultural expansion strongly affect stream biodiversity, with several studies demonstrating negative impacts on stream alpha diversity. Effects of forest conversion on stream beta diversity are much harder to predict, both because empirical studies are few and because competing theories suggest opposite responses. Moreover, almost no data exist for tropical Africa, a region that is paradoxically a hotspot of both current deforestation and freshwater biodiversity. Here, we compared environmental variables, invertebrate community composition, and alpha and beta diversity of forested and deforested (agricultural) streams in and around Kibale National Park, Uganda. We found that forest conversion strongly influenced stream environmental variables and invertebrate community composition, and that agricultural land use reduced stream alpha diversity. However, among-stream beta diversity was greater across the agricultural landscape than inside the forest. Decomposing beta diversity into taxa replacement and richness differences demonstrated that replacement contributed a similar proportion to total beta diversity in both land use classes. Because of this greater beta diversity, the agricultural landscape had similar gamma diversity as the forested landscape despite its lower alpha diversity. We discuss conservation implications of these land use-associated biodiversity changes in a highly diverse yet little-studied deforestation hotspot.

Description: Despite significant progress in recent years, understanding the rules governing the assembly of natural communities is still challenging and knowledge of how the integration of nonnative species may disrupt community structure and function is needed. To address this challenge, we collated stable isotope data for 159 freshwater fish communities around the world with and without nonnative species and quantified spatial variation in both community isotopic functional diversity and intraspecific variation in species niches. Using a null model and partial least squares path analysis, we then evaluated how the interplay between abiotic (historical, energetic, climatic, habitat size) and biotic (niche segregation) factors shape community structure and functional diversity, and how these relationships have changed, and with what consequences, in the presence of nonnative species. We found that niche partitioning is a primary force underlying the structure and functional redundancy of native fish communities, which may be governed by a synergism between contemporary climate, productivity and habitat size. We also found evidence of a legacy of historical climate on functional diversity, independent from species richness. By contrast, path models of communities containing nonnative species demonstrated lower explanatory power and had no clear association with any of the abiotic or biotic factors. In conclusion, we demonstrated that strong spatial patterns in community structure and functional diversity of freshwater fish communities exist at the global scale, underlined by the complex interplay between external and internal filters, but that these patterns may be blurred by anthropogenic species introductions. Our results further highlighted the importance of accounting for realized species niches and species status (i.e., native and nonnative) when investigating questions related to the assembly and functional diversity of multitrophic communities.

Description: Organismal and community-wide responses of reef-building corals are documented before and after a severe cold-water thermal anomaly that occurred in 2010 in the Florida Keys, USA. In January 2010 seawater temperatures dropped far below the normal minima (to 〈11°C), resulting in the largest documented coral mass mortality event ever recorded in the Florida Keys. Physiological measurements demonstrated species-specific thermal sensitivities to this environmental perturbation. Four common corals with narrow thermal tolerance, Acropora cervicornis , Orbicella annularis, O. faveolata, and Porites astreoides, sustained high mortality (〉80%) on inshore reefs. In contrast, another common coral with a wide thermal tolerance, Siderastrea siderea, was not affected by this cold anomaly. We measured biomass, symbiotic algal densities (genus: Symbiodinium ), chlorophyll a content, and maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II for reef-building corals on a seasonal basis before and after the 2010 cold anomaly. Our data document a clear correspondence between physiological response, biomass levels, and survivorship among these five scleractinian coral species. These physiological findings are mirrored by in-shore benthic community monitoring data, which show the dramatic loss of the three cold-sensitive species and continued survival of the cold-tolerant species. Finally, we document recruitment and survival rates of newly settled reef-building corals on four inshore reefs, which experienced high coral mortality during the 2010 cold-kill. Interestingly, both a cold-tolerant species, S. siderea, and a cold-intolerant species, P. astreoides, were the most abundant species recruiting to these postdisturbance reefs.

Description: Long-term shifts in vegetation phenology generally follow the pattern of global warming. Yet, topographical complexity and biome diversity cause uneven spatial trends in the phenological response of vegetation to climate change. If phenology changes similarly along migration routes, individuals may adequately respond by shifting the whole migration schedule to still time life history with local phenological events. On the contrary, phenological shifts that differ in direction or magnitude between sites can enhance the risk of mistiming, resulting in reduced survival and reproductive success and eventually population declines. We identified the direction and magnitude of long-term shifts in vegetation phenology along avian migration routes, using remotely sensed vegetation data over 29 yr (1982–2010) to estimate the risk of mistiming for different sets of assumptions concerning cues and adaptability of migration timing. For this study, we used individual series of non-breeding, spring stopover and breeding sites (determined by light-level geolocation) of three European populations of Luscinia megarhynchos (Common Nightingale), an insectivorous Palearctic long-distance migrant. The breeding populations in France, Italy, and Bulgaria are representatives for populations migrating on the western, central, and eastern flyway toward sub-Saharan Africa. The direction and magnitude of phenological shifts differed between migration stages and across flyways and under most sets of assumptions, the resulting risk of mistiming was higher in the Western compared to Central and Eastern flyway. We emphasize that estimates for the risk of mistiming as resulting from phenological shifts highly depend on the cues that migrants use to time migratory progression and on the adaptive potential of the particular migratory species to react to phenological shifts.

Description: There is high variability in the level of herbivory between individual plants from the same species with potential effects on population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem structure and function. This variability can be partly explained by associational effects (i.e., the impact of the presence of neighboring plants on the level of herbivory experienced by a focal plant) but it is still unclear how the spatial scale of plant neighborhood modulates foraging choice of herbivores, an inherently spatial process in itself. Using a meta-analysis, we investigated how spatial scale modifies associational effects on the susceptibility to browsing by herbivores with movement capacities similar to deer. From 2496 articles found in literature databases, we selected 46 studies providing a total of 168 differences of means in damage by herbivores or survival to woody plants (mostly) with and without neighboring plants. Spatial scales were reported as distance between plants or as plot size. We estimated the relationships between the effect sizes and spatial scale, type of associational effects, and nature of the experiment using meta-analysis mixed models. The strength of associational effects declined with increasing plot size, regardless of the type of associational effects. Associational defenses (i.e., decrease in herbivory for focal plants associated with unpalatable neighbors) had stronger magnitude than associational susceptibilities. The high remaining heterogeneity among studies suggests that untested factors modulate associational effects, such as nutritional quality of focal and neighboring plants, density of herbivores, timing of browsing, etc. Associational effects are already considered in multiple restoration contexts worldwide, but a better understanding of these relationships could improve their use in conservation, restoration, and forest exploitation when browsing is a concern. This study is the first to investigate spatial patterns of associational effects across species and ecosystems, an issue that is essential to determine differential herbivory damages among plants.

Description: The coastal mangrove reaches of the Everglades are subject to major disturbances, including extreme cold events. Such a 100-year extreme cold spell affected the area in January 2010. As part of the Special Feature: Extreme Cold Spells in the June 2016 issue of Ecosphere, Rehage et al. found that cold spells can knock back nonnative fish populations in these ecotonal habitats (Volume 7, Issue 6, Article 01268; e01268. 10.1002/ecs2.1268 ). Resilience to the events varies in space, likely a result of proximity to refuge habitats. Photo credit: Jennifer Rehage.