ALBERT

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 129〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Emmanuel Skoufias, Alexis Diamond, Katja Vinha, Michael Gill, Miguel Rebolledo Dellepiane〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The performance of the Simple Poverty Scorecard is compared against the performance of established regression-based estimators. All estimates are benchmarked against observed poverty status based on household expenditure (or income) data from household socioeconomic surveys that span nearly a decade and are representative of subnational populations. When the models all adopt the same “one-size-fits-all” training approach based on the national sample, there is no meaningful difference in performance and the Simple Poverty Scorecard is as good as any of the regression-based estimators. The “one-size-fits-all” training approach based on the national sample results in overestimating poverty in the regions with lower poverty rates (wealthier regions) and underestimating poverty in the regions with higher poverty rates (poorer regions). In the poorest strata (regions/districts), average SPS discrepancies are as high as 15–25 percentage-points. The findings change, however, when the regression-based estimators are “trained” on “training sets” that more closely resemble potential subpopulation test sets. In this case, regression-based models outperform the nationally calculated Simple Poverty Scorecard in terms of bias and variance. These findings highlight the fundamental trade-off between simplicity of use and accuracy.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 153〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Lirong Gan, Huamao Wang, Zhaojun Yang〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The recent fast development of machine learning provides new tools to solve challenges in many areas. In finance, average options are popular financial products among corporations, institutional investors, and individual investors for risk management and investment because average options have the advantages of cheap prices and their payoffs are not very sensitive to the changes of the underlying asset prices at the maturity date, avoiding the manipulation of asset prices and option prices. The challenge is that pricing arithmetic average options requires traditional numerical methods with the drawbacks of expensive repetitive computations and non-realistic model assumptions. This paper proposes a machine-learning method to price arithmetic and geometric average options accurately and in particular quickly. The method is model-free and it is verified by empirical applications as well as numerical experiments.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 129〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Prathi Seneviratne〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper investigates gender wage inequality in Sri Lanka during 1992–2014, a period of robust economic growth following pro-market reforms. The gap in mean wages between men and women decreased steadily over this period. Unconditional quantile regression reveals the decline in gender wage inequality was driven by the upper half of the distribution, and was due to improvements in women’s observable human capital. Yet, the pay structure became more unequal, indicating widening gender gaps in the returns to labor market characteristics and in unobservable determinants of wages. The gender gap in pay structure widened disproportionately in the lower half of the distribution, coinciding with falling absolute and relative returns to women in manufacturing industries and production occupations facing greater international competition. The study also demonstrates selection bias underestimates the gender wage gap and overestimates the gains in equality over time. Factors that hinder gender equality in the labor market are discussed along with policy implications.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 153〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): N. Befort〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The bioeconomy is steadily becoming more important to regional, national and European public policy. As it encompasses the transformation of agricultural, marine and organic resources into food, feed, fuels, energy and materials, the bioeconomy should become a major new industry replacing oil-based products. However, policymakers take two main approaches to developing the bioeconomy. The first, biotech-oriented approach depicts the bioeconomy as a biotechnology subsector. The second, biomass-oriented approach (i) considers biomass transformation as its starting point, (ii) raises the issue of bioeconomy sustainability, and (iii) considers biotechnology as just one of many transformation technologies. The growing literature on defining the bioeconomy has not yet covered the articulation between biotechnology and bioeconomy. This paper fills this critical gap and provides policy recommendations depending on whether the goal is to develop biotechnology or to contribute to green growth and sustainability.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 129〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Justice A. Tambo, Bellancile Uzayisenga, Idah Mugambi, Mary Bundi, Silvia Silvestri〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉An estimated 40% of potential global crop production is lost annually to pests and diseases. Reducing this level of crop loss is critical to increasing agricultural productivity, which is essential in achieving the sustainable development goals of zero hunger and no poverty. However, the lack of access to timely and relevant advice on crop health problems poses a significant challenge to farmers to take action at the right time to mitigate crop losses. In efforts to address this issue, over 4000 plant clinics have been established in 34 countries worldwide where farmers who are struggling with plant pests and diseases can take samples of their ‘sick’ crops to trained plant doctors for diagnosis and plant health advice. The plant clinic initiative began in 2003, but thus far, there has not been a rigorous assessment of the impact of this innovative approach of delivering targeted agricultural extension services. Using a recent panel survey of smallholder maize producers in rural Rwanda, this paper attempts to address this gap by analysing the impact of plant clinics on farm performance (measured by technology adoption, and maize yield and income) and on poverty alleviation (measured by the Progress out of Poverty Index). Employing the correlated random effects estimation methods to account for unobserved heterogeneity, we find that plant clinics significantly increase the adoption of crop protection technologies to control devastating maize pests, such as fall armyworm and maize stalk borer, and this, in turn, results in significant maize yield and net income gains of 28% and 23%, respectively. We also show that seeking plant health advice from plant clinics is significantly associated with a 5% reduction in the likelihood of a household falling below the extreme poverty line of $1.25 per day. The results imply that policies and programmes aimed at promoting the establishment of and farmers’ participation in plant clinics can contribute to increased agricultural productivity and poverty reduction.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 129〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Boscow Okumu, Edwin Muchapondwa〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper examines whether offering landless forest-adjacent communities options to grow appropriate food crops inside forest reserves during early stages of reforestation programmes increases incomes of low-income households and conserve forests. We consider the forest cover and household welfare impacts of a unique incentive scheme in Kenya known as the Plantation Establishment and Livelihood Improvement Scheme (PELIS). PELIS seeks to deepen community participation in forestry, and improve the livelihoods of adjacent communities. Using cross sectional data collected from 22 Community Forest Associations and 406 households, we use propensity score matching methods to evaluate the mean impact of the scheme on forest cover and household welfare. We also assess the heterogeneous impacts of the scheme on household welfare using an endogenous quantile treatment effects model. The results show that on average, PELIS has a significant and positive impact on the welfare of participating households (estimated between 15.09% and 28.14%) and on forest cover (between 5.53% and 7.94%). However, the scheme cannot be defended on equity grounds as it has inequitable distributional impacts on household welfare. The scheme raises welfare of groups other than the poorest and marginalized sections of the community. Our observations from the field blame elite capture for this outcome.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 153〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yanfei Li, Qiang Ji, Dayong Zhang〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Technological progress is critical for achieving sustainable growth and thus an important issue to study. China has recently emerged as a key power of innovation with both increasing investment in research and clear improvements in research output. The main questions behind these facts are how this country makes such achievements in a short period of time and whether they are sustainable in the future. This paper proposes a new theoretical framework to explain the phenomenally accelerated technological catching-up process of China. Specifically, we set up an inverted S-curve model based on the existing theories. The empirical analyses herein provide clear evidence supporting the proposed theoretical framework. At the aggregate level, an empirical model is developed for the purpose of identifying the main driving forces of the technological progress of China. Based on the theoretical framework and the existing literature, a seven-variable model is used to investigate the contribution of key factors to the innovation outcome of China. At the micro-level, case studies on China General Nuclear (CGN), a leading state-owned nuclear energy company, as well as Huawei, a prominent Chinese private company in the telecommunications industry, provide further insights into what firm-level strategies, in combination with or leveraging state-level policies, enable successful stories in practice.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 153〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Timo Tammi, Jani Saastamoinen, Helen Reijonen〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper contributes to the literature on the role of public procurement in encouraging innovations in the economy by empirically examining how the inverted-U relationship between competition and innovation is related to SME behavior in public procurement. First, we establish the inverted-U relationship in our data. We find that ‘intra-provincial suppliers’ (SMEs supplying mainly to public sector customers in their own municipality and province) are less innovation-oriented than ‘supra-provincial suppliers’ (supplying mainly to public sector customers residing outside their own province). In addition, a descriptive analysis suggests that the innovativeness of intra-provincial suppliers exhibits a weakly positive relationship with competition. However, the innovativeness of supra-provincial suppliers appears to be negatively related to competition at high levels of competition, but not at low levels of competition.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 153〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Ribeiro-Soriano Domingo, Juan Piñeiro-Chousa, M. Ángeles López-Cabarcos〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In recent years, initial coin offerings (ICOs) have received considerable attention as a new form of crowdfunding. Because of the rapid growth in their popularity, ICOs have become a prominent research topic. However, the lack of knowledge about the nature of this kind of financial operation inevitably raises several important unanswered questions. This study starts by providing a comprehensive description of the characteristics, benefits, and risks associated with ICOs. Then, using a panel data set comprising daily information for 125 ICOs (44,217 observations gathered from December 2017 to December 2018), this study explores the influence of the ICO presale period, ICO category, Bitcoin spot returns, Bitcoin futures returns, and sentiment extracted from social media on ICO returns. The results suggest that while Bitcoin spot and Bitcoin futures returns exert a positive influence on ICO returns, the existence of a presale period exerts a negative influence, and ICO category seems to be non-significant. Sentiment extracted from social networks positively influences ICO returns. Further conclusions of this study are presented in the last section.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 152〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Shan Song, De Wang, Wei Zhu, Can Wang〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈h6〉Background〈/h6〉 〈p〉The rapid population aging arouses the enormous demands of elderly people for institutional care services. Although the supply of nursing homes is still short in quantity, a structural imbalance on the utilization of nursing homes has appeared in many cities of China recently. Namely, when elderly people wait a long time for a bed of downtown nursing homes, many suburban ones are not fully utilized.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈div〉 〈h6〉Purpose〈/h6〉 〈p〉This paper aims to reveal the elderly people's preferences for the nursing homes, in order to clarify the reason for utilization imbalance and put forward the efficient strategies for planning practice.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈div〉 〈h6〉Method〈/h6〉 〈p〉A stated preference survey was undertaken to collect the choice data of respondents (〈em〉n〈/em〉=293) in Shanghai, 2013. Discrete choice models were used in data analysis to explain the mechanism of preferences.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈div〉 〈h6〉Findings〈/h6〉 〈p〉All seven attributes of nursing homes significantly affect elderly people's preferences. Disparities on the medical condition, transportation, and distance to home between downtown and suburban nursing homes are the leading cause of utilization imbalance. By optimizing the configuration of those factors, the crowded downtown elderly people could be attracted to suburban nursing homes. Finally, the mechanism was applied to a simulation of nursing home planning.〈/p〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 153〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Adriana Amaya Rivas, Yen-Chun Chen, Ta-Kai Yang〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Given different strategic logics and implications of entrepreneurial orientation (EO) and alliance orientation (AO), this study develops an integrative model of an alignment between EO and AO in the context of new product development (NPD) and articulates the results of a study designed to examine its effects on a firm's NPD activities and performance outcomes. The authors empirically investigate the model through a cross-sectional survey of 141 Taiwanese electronics firms. Drawing from the coalignment perspective, these firms are distinguished into four strategic groups labeled as EO (high EO and low AO), AO (low EO and high AO), EA (high EO and high AO), and CO (low EO and low AO) firms. Empirical results suggest that the four groups of firms significantly differ in terms of NPD process characteristics (decision-making flexibility, market-focused learning, and internally focused learning), program characteristics (product program meaningfulness and newness), and performance outcome (new product success). Theoretical and managerial implications of the results are demonstrated.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 153〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jindian Liu, Mingwang Cheng, Xinyu Wei, Ning Neil Yu〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Based on data from the Chinese General Social Surveys from 2012, 2013, and 2015, this paper empirically studies the impact of the Internet on sexual attitudes, using ordinary least squares regressions and ordinal logistic regressions, followed by regressions that use the instrumental variable method and propensity score matching method for causal inferences. Our results suggest that Internet-usage frequency has a significantly positive impact on sexually permissive attitudes, including attitudes toward premarital sex, extramarital sex, and homosexual behavior. For example, a regression that uses instrument variables reveals that an increase of one standard deviation for Internet-usage frequency is associated with an increase of 0.6154 standard deviations for sexually permissive attitudes. Further, through the mediation effect model, this study probes the influence of Internet usage on sexually permissive attitudes, revealing that social network and education attainment account for 2.37% and 11.09%, respectively, of the total effect. The findings bolster the common perception that the Internet plays a crucial role in the sexual revolution in China.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 129〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): S. Manda, A. Tallontire, A.J. Dougill〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Integration of smallholders in outgrower schemes has been advanced as a strategy for poverty reduction in the global south, but how terms and conditions of inclusion and exclusion shape divergent outcomes, and processes underpinning these local dynamics remain an under-researched area. This study, set in Zambia’s southern ‘sugarbelt’ region of Mazabuka, draws on two contrasting outgrower schemes to examine determinants of smallholder inclusion in sugar value-chains, and consider how various terms and conditions underpining inclusion shape various interests, reactions and pathways for value capture among different local groups. Our study reaveals terms and conditions are important in shaping divergent outcomes for smallholders included in sugar value-chains. It shows determinants of inclusion and exclusion are complex and go beyond market imperatives that are production related (structural) to include social-cultural dynamics (non-structural). The centrality of the paper points to lived realities and experiences for different groups and political reactions from below, underlining how socially contested intersection of global–local value-chain produces diverse but interdependent hierarchies of inclusion and exclusion. For an early stage in planning of outgrower schemes by state and non-state actors, recognition of the various social groups and their complex engagement and reactions to changes in land-use and land control will not only expose competing interests but should inform polices, institutions and investments to improve value-chain impacts. This paper hopes to contribute towards a more nuanced understanding of the complex engagement of smallholders in changes in land use and land control in developing countries in the era of land-grabbing.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 153〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Erik Hille, Wilhelm Althammer, Henning Diederich〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉We examine how different renewable energy support policies affect innovation in solar and wind power technologies. The analysis uses policy and patent data for a large sample of 194 countries and territories. The policy data enables distinguishing between two dimensions of regulation, i.e. design and intensity, and their effects on innovation. The patent data is based on the new Y02E system and covers the period 1990 to 2016, with the more recent years revealing both strong increases and declines in patenting activity. The results show that, firstly, more comprehensive portfolios of renewable energy support policies increase patenting in solar- and wind-power-related technologies. Secondly, this inducement effect is strongest for public RD&D programs, targets, and fiscal incentives. In contrast to previous studies, this paper finds a consistently positive impact of feed-in tariffs and does not detect technology-specific differences in the effectiveness of this policy instrument. Thirdly, the positive effect on patenting activity increases significantly over time, with an increase in duration of the implemented RD&D programs and targets.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 153〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Paul Bertheau〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Access to sustainable energy is crucial for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. A particular challenge for countries like the Philippines, is to provide sustainable energy on its far-flung islands. Renewable energy technologies hold substantial potential for improving sustainability and reliability while decreasing costs. We present a socio-economic impact survey for a case study island: Cobrador represents a typical small Philippine island with a population of approximately 1,000. The implementation of solar power and batteries led to increased service hours, affordability and environmental soundness. We applied a household questionnaire focusing on electricity usage patterns and targeted 170 randomly selected households representing 70% of the population. Our data show a clear positive impact of the intervention on access to education, information, health services, and perceived safety, whereas we found a weaker impact on income generation. Overall, we reveal a beneficial impact on different aspects of the household's daily routine. However, we also identify significant differences in the electricity usage pattern of below-average and above-average income households, specifically with the latter more frequently using electricity for income generation. Future sustainable energy interventions need to be aligned with programs incentivizing poor household's electricity use for enabling all households to equally profit from sustainable energy.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 152〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Tao Xiang, Tariq H. Malik, Klaus Nielsen〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Population growth generates various challenges for humankind. One such challenge is linked to the trade-off between food security and food safety (environmental quality). Increasing population and shrinking agricultural land necessitates productivity gains in agricultural production in order to secure food security. However, intensive use of agrochemicals (fertiliser and pesticides) impacts on food safety through deteriorated environmental quality. This security-safety dilemma is recognised but has rarely been thoroughly examined empirically. In this paper, we address the dilemma by examining increased fertiliser use due to population pressure. Based on a dynamic fixed-effects model and panel data for 77 countries for the period 1970–2011, we provide a solid empirically analysis of the trade-off. First, the findings show that population pressure has significant impacts on fertiliser use in countries with high population pressure. The impacts are both direct and indirect (i.e., mediated by agricultural protection and food trade policies). Our analysis demonstrates that an increase in population pressure by 1% yields a 0.118% increase in fertiliser use intensity for this group of countries. Second, the direct impact is aggravated by agricultural protection, but attenuated by food import in high-pressure countries. Third, countries with high population pressure import food from low-pressure countries to meet their food security needs in favour of environmental protection. This may not be a food safety problem for low-pressure countries as the fertiliser use in these countries is still relatively low at a level of only one third of high-pressure countries' fertiliser use. In other words, the mediating role of food trade appears to be a rational international solution. In the last decades, agricultural support of intensification of agricultural production by means of agrochemicals has decreased. A continuation of this trend together with increased international food trade and, in particular, technological innovation and infrastructural investment are needed to establish a better trade-off between food security and food safety.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 152〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Mohammad Falahat, T. Ramayah, Pedro Soto-Acosta, Yan-Yin Lee〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Small and medium enterprise (SME) competitive advantage has been recognized as an important topic for researchers dealing with SME internationalization. Previous studies have long discussed the role of firm competitive advantage as a determinant of international performance, but there are few studies analyzing the determinants of firm competitive advantage and its potential mediating role in the relationship between organizational capabilities and SMEs' international performance. In this paper, we hypothesize four essential export capabilities (market intelligence, product innovation, pricing, and marketing communication) as determinants of competitive advantage for exporting SMEs. Based on a sample of 119 active exporting Malaysian SMEs and using partial least squares (PLS) structural equation modeling, the results revealed that three of the mentioned capabilities lead to competitive advantage. In addition, results indicated that competitive advantage only acts as a mediator between pricing capability and SMEs' international performance. The main conclusions of this investigation can be valuable to SMEs and startups that intend to explore or exploit opportunities in foreign markets.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 129〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Degnet Abebaw, Assefa Admassie, Habtemariam Kassa, Christine Padoch〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Food insecurity in Ethiopia is a persistent development challenge. In this paper, we investigate the effects of rural outmigration on indicators of household food security in Ethiopia. The empirical data come from a two-year panel data collected from three regions of the country. To control for the potential endogeneity of migration and migration selection bias, our estimation uses a combination of a difference-in-difference (DID) model and an inverse-probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach (IPTW-DID). We find that, on average, rural outmigration has significantly improved the amount of daily calories consumed per adult equivalent by around 22%. Our estimation results also show that outmigration has significantly reduced food poverty gap and severity of food poverty by seven and four percentage points, respectively.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 129〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): G.J. Alaerts〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉After two decades of implementation, Indonesia’s program to reform its irrigation sector can be assessed yielding lessons on water policy reform. This reform coincided with state-wide decentralization, and shifted decision-making from a central ministry to a distributed arrangement in which local governments and Water User Associations assume part of irrigation authority and budget. The policy was formulated with different stakeholders in 1999–2004 based on field pilots and was implemented using an adaptive, sequential approach while developing institutional capacity of local governments and farmers. Relatively coherent longitudinal monitoring data sets are available on field-level practices, economic returns on projects (with and without, and before and after reform), and rice production. Institutional development was monitored by performance indicators. The overall reform effectiveness is assessed by analyzing the appropriateness of the new arrangement, and the processes of the policy design and of its implementation. After two decades well over three quarters of the country is applying the policy albeit with varying quality. At field level water supply and allocation turned more reliable, and conflicts better managed. Rice production increased year over year after 2005 correlating with policy roll-out. Irrigation Departments proved less adequate in partnering with farmers, however. Institutional capacity generated one quarter to two thirds of the economic benefit from investments that combined scheme rehabilitation and institutional capacity development. As institutional capacity develops slowly full roll-out may require up to three decades. The analysis shows that in the context of ‘wicked’ policy implementation, not only normative policy design matters, but equally importantly, the sequencing of the process of implementation allowing adaptation to physical, institutional and political realities; still, to be successful a process must build on a credible realistic ‘model’. This is especially true in developing and emerging economies with weaker institutional capacities and more fragmented governance structures.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 129〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Barbora Sedova, Matthias Kalkuhl〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In this paper, we move from the large strand of research that looks at evidence of climate migration to the questions: 〈em〉who are the climate migrants?〈/em〉 and 〈em〉where do they go?〈/em〉 These questions are crucial to design policies that mitigate welfare losses of migration choices due to climate change. We study the direct and heterogeneous associations between weather extremes and migration in rural India. We combine ERA5 reanalysis data with the India Human Development Survey household panel and conduct regression analyses by applying linear probability and multinomial logit models. This enables us to establish a causal relationship between temperature and precipitation anomalies and overall migration as well as migration by destination. We show that adverse weather shocks decrease rural-rural and international migration and push people into cities in different, presumably more prosperous states. A series of positive weather shocks, however, facilitates international migration and migration to cities within the same state. Further, our results indicate that in contrast to other migrants, climate migrants are likely to be from the lower end of the skill distribution and from households strongly dependent on agricultural production. We estimate that approximately 8% of all rural-urban moves between 2005 and 2012 can be attributed to weather. This figure might increase as a consequence of climate change. Thus, a key policy recommendation is to take steps to facilitate integration of less educated migrants into the urban labor market.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 153〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Shujuan Guo, Botao Zan, Yuan Sun, Meili Zhang〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Due to the economies has emphasized the speed of economic growth and brings some ever-increasing challenges in the transition economics, China has turned the focus toward the sustainable quality of economic development. Especially, the effect of top managers’ military experience on enterprises’ innovation-led sustainable development is an important, yet unaddressed issue. Military experience of the top managers can prompt or hinder the firms’ innovation-led sustainable development as shown in the literature. Based on propensity score matching method, this study uses Wind database and Shenzhen Guotaian Educational Technology Company Limited (CSMAR) database of Chinese enterprises from 2007 to 2017 to show that top managers’ military experience affects risk behaviors for corporate investment. The negative effect between top managers’ military experience and technological innovation investment appears to be reduced in private firms and weakened for equity incentive. All these findings are against common sense that the military experiences may boost the more risk-loving attitude. This study implies that enterprises should carefully select senior management teams to enhance investments in technological innovation.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 152〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Veronica Scuotto, Orlando Beatrice, Cillo Valentina, Melita Nicotra, Leonardo Di Gioia, Massimiliano Farina Briamonte〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉In the current dynamic and virtuous flow of knowledge economy, firms are concern about whether to manage innovation centrally or through decentralized business units. Two needs emerge 1. Guaranteeing organizational efficiency and 2. Exploiting effectively market opportunity. This usually implies the integration of knowledge in technology transfer which can be accrued via the knowledge sharing between parties. However, by looking into the technological and social change literature, previous studies were mainly focused on macro-foundation of technology transfer and organizational innovative capabilities with less consideration to the role of psychological precursors of collaborations. Due to this gap, we intended to build a consistent conceptual basis for collaborations and technology transfer practices at the micro level. Therefore, drawing on the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) we propose a micro-foundation model for collaborative innovation and technology transfer.〈/p〉 〈p〉To test our theoretical arguments, we use data collected from the Community Innovation Survey (CIS) dataset. Hypotheses are tested through both Anova and linear regression analyses. Findings show positive and linear relationships either between our perceived control factors and the intention between technology transfer and intentions.〈/p〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 153〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Nuan Luo, Yu Wang, Mingli Zhang, Tao Niu, Jianbo Tu〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Taking Xianyu (Taobao second-hand platform) for an example, this study proposes a framework to identify the integrative effect of community and e-commerce on building the “trustworthiness” of online second-hand transaction platform. Research data was analysed by structural equation modelling based on 565 valid questionnaires. The results revealed that e-commerce service quality (system quality, security assurance, product variety and service support) and community quality had direct and interaction effects on users’ perceived trust, which consequently affected their transaction intention. The findings shed light on how web communities should be used to lead to optimal results in the context of online second-hand transaction.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 152〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Natalia Shmatko, Yurij Katchanov, Galina Volkova〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The paper considers career patterns of researchers and the ways to assess their career achievements on the academic and non-academic labor markets. Taking into account the approaches developed earlier in the framework of the sociology of science, as well as on the basis of recent empirical studies, the authors propose an original approach to the study of a research career, determine the integral indicator of career achievements and assess the research career rank by means of the transition probabilities. The study is based on the data obtained during a survey among Russian researchers involving 828 respondents employed by organizations in the main prospective science and technology areas (academic and non-academic sectors). We suggest the research career achievement (RCA) indicator as an analytical tool for managing highly qualified research personnel. The use of PageRank method enabled to discern an extremely uneven distribution of the research career achievement value in the surveyed sample of researchers. The analysis revealed the main factors determining academic and non-academic research career patterns. The findings attest that the factors affecting career patterns are closely linked with the recognition that the researcher obtains or expects at three levels: individual – professional community – society as a whole.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 152〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Frank Nyame-Asiamah, Isaac Oduro Amoako, Joseph Amankwah-Amoah, Yaw A. Debrah〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Applying the institution-based views, this article conceptualises how diaspora entrepreneurs take stimuli from the push and pull institutional factors to develop business enterprises in their countries of origin. Using cases of African diaspora entrepreneurs in the UK and the grounded theory methodological approach, our conceptualised model demonstrates that the diasporas use the new knowledge, skills and wealth they have gained in the UK in tandem with support from trusted family, kinship and business ties at home to develop enterprises. It further demonstrates that diaspora entrepreneurs foster resilience to withstand weak formal institutions in their countries of origin and the discriminatory obstacles in the UK. We also found that institutional barriers which served as push factors that encouraged or forced migrants to leave their home countries to seek greener pastures abroad may later become pull factors that enable them to engage in diaspora entrepreneurship which is often characterised by paradoxes. Particularly, the informal institutions that constrain foreign investors can become assets for African diaspora entrepreneurs and help them set up new businesses and exploit market opportunities in Africa. The implications of the study for diaspora entrepreneurship literature are outlined.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 153〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Giustina Secundo, Valentina Ndou, Pasquale Del Vecchio, Gianluigi De Pascale〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper aims to provide a Structured Literature Review (SLR) about the strategic role of Intellectual Capital (IC) for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It offers an outline of past and present literature and frames a future research agenda. It analyses papers published in journals from 2003 – 2018 with the aim of deriving significant insights about IC's determinants for achieving SDGs. Although empirical and theoretical studies have shown a positive relationship between IC and sustainability, the research remains an emerging area of growing importance. Although no explicit specialisation in the topic currently exists, findings highlight the “sustainability imperative” and convergence toward the following research areas: 〈em〉IC components for Sustainable Development in Private Sector, IC for Sustainable Regional Development in the Knowledge Economy, and IC for Sustainable Development in the Public Sector.〈/em〉 Discussions indicate that some SDGs are starting to be explored more than others (e.g., quality education, infrastructure, health, cities and communities) and that only recently some studies are specialising specifically in the importance of technology to address the SDGs. Implications for technology policy have been highlighted to frame a future research agenda for academics and practitioners.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 129〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Heath Henderson, Lendie Follett〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The capabilities approach provides a rich framework for welfare assessment, but its practical relevance is limited by methodological difficulties associated with the measurement of human capabilities. We argue that, unlike existing approaches to capability estimation, Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis (BSFA) is consistent with the key features of the capabilities approach and thus provides a natural framework for estimating capabilities. Using simulated data, we show that BSFA outperforms the leading alternatives (e.g., structural equation models) in comparable settings. We further show that our approach is more flexible than the alternatives: BSFA can provide cardinal representations of entire capability sets and can be used with continuous, discrete, and multivariate outcomes. Finally, we provide an empirical illustration of our estimator by examining the impact of Uganda’s Youth Opportunities Program on the educational capabilities of children in the treated households.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 128〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Balsher Singh Sidhu, Milind Kandlikar, Navin Ramankutty〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Groundwater irrigation using electric pumps plays a key role in India’s agricultural water supply. Power utilities across different states use two common tariff modes to charge groundwater consumers: flat tariffs, where payments are fixed according to a pump’s power rating, and metered tariffs based on units of power actually consumed. In this review, we use empirical evidence from past studies across multiple jurisdictions in India to compare the two tariff structures in terms of three key features: administrative burden on utilities; equity of groundwater access between high-income and low-income farmers; and influence on farmers’ pumping behavior. Our analysis shows that flat tariffs have low administrative costs and more equitable distributional outcomes, but provide no incentive to farmers for water conservation. Conversely, metered tariffs have the potential to encourage judicious consumption, but are expensive to manage and disadvantageous to low-income farmers who often buy water from wealthier groundwater well owners. Flawed tariff policies, in conjunction with large subsidies for agricultural power, have caused rapid groundwater depletion in many regions as well as massive financial losses to power utilities and governments – both state and central. Since there is considerable heterogeneity in agricultural practices and groundwater availability across India, we propose location-specific strategies for rationalizing agricultural power tariffs in different regions. While the groundwater-abundant eastern regions can benefit from a hybrid flat-cum-metered tariff that encourages farmer-to-farmer water sales, western states facing unsustainable groundwater exploitation should develop tariff policies that ration power, prioritize its supply during the most critical seasons, and reward farmers who reduce their groundwater consumption. Not only will such tariff policies help conserve groundwater, but also augment government financial resources for social welfare programs such as education, health, energy access etc. Thus, improved power policies can provide substantial assistance in India’s progress towards multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 152〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Zhengang Zhang, Taiye Luo〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Taking the patent data in the field of nano energy from 2000 to 2018 as an example, this paper divides organizations’ network capital into four dimensions (i.e., knowledge combinatorial capacity, knowledge stocks, technological distance and network efficiency) and uses Stochastic Actor-Oriented Models to test the relationships between the four dimensions of network capital, exploratory innovation, and exploitative innovation. We found that exploratory innovation and exploitative innovation could be supportive of each other. Organizations’ knowledge combinatorial capacity has a positive effect on exploitative innovation, but a negative effect on exploratory innovation. Both knowledge stocks and technological distance have inverted U-shaped relationships with exploratory innovation and exploitative innovation. Network efficiency has a positive impact on exploratory innovation and an inverted U-shaped relationship with exploitative innovation.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 129〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Brian Engelsma, Gerry Mackie, Brandon Merrell〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The sparsity of historical data on Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting (FGM/C) poses a challenge for researchers who seek to identify long-term trends in FGM/C participation or evaluate the role of macro-level factors that may predict FGM/C abandonment. This study introduces a means of overcoming this barrier and provides a new cross-national dataset of FGM/C prevalence over time. We compile self-reported FGM/C data from more than 700,000 women born in 23 African countries between 1940 and 2002 who subsequently participated in Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) or Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). These data allow us to estimate the proportion of women born in each country-year who eventually underwent FGM/C. We then use these estimates to assess country-level trends in FGM/C prevalence and to explore macro-level factors that may contribute to the persistence or decline of the practice, including population density, female education rates, political stability, laws banning the practice, economic development, democratization, and international exposure. Our exploratory analysis suggests that population density, female education, and laws banning FGM/C are associated with FGM/C prevalence. Our results and approach should facilitate additional research on the mechanisms through which economic growth, institutional changes, and international engagement can influence the abandonment of FGM/C and other harmful social norms.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 128〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Harounan Kazianga, Zaki Wahhaj〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Large segments of the population in developing countries, especially in rural areas, have a high level of vulnerability to weather-related shocks but have limited means to insure themselves against them. In recent years, microfinance institutions have experimented with micro-insurance products, including rainfall index insurance, but the uptake of these products has generally been very low. We present findings from a pilot study exploring whether and how existing ties between urban migrants and rural farmers may be used to provide the latter improved access to formal insurance. Urban migrants in Ouagadougou (the capital of Burkina Faso) originating from nearby villages were offered, at the prevailing market price, a rainfall index insurance product that can potentially protect their rural relatives from adverse weather shocks. The product had an uptake of 22% during the two-week subscription window. Half the urban migrants in the study were randomly offered an insurance policy in which payouts would be made, not to the subscriber, but directly to the intended beneficiary. This feature increased uptake rates by 17–22 percentage points. We argue that rainfall index insurance can complement informal risk-sharing networks by mitigating problems of informational asymmetry and self-control issues.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 128〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Stephan Klasen〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This survey argues that after decades of seemingly continuous progress in reducing gender inequality in developing and developed countries, since about 2000, there has been an unexpected stagnation and regress in many dimensions of gender inequality in many parts of the world. This is most visible in labor markets, but also visible across a range of dimensions of gender inequality. After documenting these developments, the paper suggests causes for this change before suggesting policies that might tackle remaining gender inequalities more effectively.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 128〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Maria Alejandra Vélez, Juan Robalino, Juan Camilo Cardenas, Andrea Paz, Eduardo Pacay〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉During the mid-1990s, one of the most ambitious land reforms in recent decades took place in Colombia. The reform recognized collective land rights of almost 6 million hectares to Afro-Colombian communities, with the dual goals of improving livelihoods and preserving valuable ecosystems. We estimate the impact of this collective land titling program on forest cover using panel data and a difference-in-difference empirical strategy. We find that overall, collective titling significantly reduces deforestation rates, but the effect varies substantially by sub-region. We observe that the larger effects are in Nariño and Valle del Cauca. Our qualitative analysis suggest that this might be the result of local community-based organization defining the rules for community use of natural resources and the expulsion of private companies dedicated to timber exploitation and oil palm plantations. We conclude that under the adequate conditions, collective titling can lead to forest conservation.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: June 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 130〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jaime de Melo, Jean-Marc Solleder〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: June 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 130〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Stein T. Holden, Mesfin Tilahun〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 154〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): David Wright, Bernd Stahl, Tally Hatzakis〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 154〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Shiwangi Singh, Sanjay Dhir, V. Mukunda Das, Anuj Sharma〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: June 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 130〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Festus A. Asaaga, Mark A. Hirons, Yadvinder Malhi〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 154〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Joeri H. Wesseling, Christina Bidmon, René Bohnsack〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 154〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Eva Martínez-Caro, Juan Gabriel Cegarra-Navarro, Francisco Javier Alfonso-Ruiz〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 154〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Bing Xu, Weiran Lin, Syed Ali Taqi〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 154〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Patricia Maraña, Leire Labaka, Jose Mari Sarriegi〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 129〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jeffrey D. Michler〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 129〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Catia Batista, Pedro C. Vicente〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 129〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Chalmers K. Mulwa, Martine Visser〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 129〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Clara Brandi, Jakob Schwab, Axel Berger, Jean-Frédéric Morin〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2020〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 World Development, Volume 129〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Bruno Martorano, Laura Metzger, Marco Sanfilippo〈/p〉