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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2013-09-12
    Description: Beyond multifractional Brownian motion: new stochastic models for geophysical modelling Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 643-655, 2013 Author(s): J. Lévy Véhel Multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) has proved to be a useful tool in various areas of geophysical modelling. Although a versatile model, mBm is of course not always an adequate one. We present in this work several other stochastic processes which could potentially be useful in geophysics. The first alternative type is that of self-regulating processes : these are models where the local regularity is a function of the amplitude, in contrast to mBm where it is tuned exogenously. We demonstrate the relevance of such models for digital elevation maps and for temperature records. We also briefly describe two other types of alternative processes, which are the counterparts of mBm and of self-regulating processes when the intensity of local jumps is considered in lieu of local regularity: multistable processes allow one to prescribe the local intensity of jumps in space/time, while this intensity is governed by the amplitude for self-stabilizing processes .
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2013-09-28
    Description: Non-extensivity and long-range correlations in the earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift (Greece) Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 713-724, 2013 Author(s): G. Michas, F. Vallianatos, and P. Sammonds In the present work the statistical properties of the earthquake activity in a highly seismic region, the West Corinth rift (Central Greece), are being studied by means of generalized statistical physics. By using a dataset that covers the period 2001–2008, we investigate the earthquake energy distribution and the distribution of the time intervals (interevent times) between the successive events. As has been reported previously, these distributions exhibit complex statistical properties and fractality. By using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), a well-established method for detection of long-range correlations in non-stationary signals, it is shown that long-range correlations are also present in the earthquake activity. The existence of these properties motivates us to use non-extensive statistical physics (NESP) to investigate the statistical properties of the frequency-magnitude and the interevent time distributions, along with other well-known relations in seismology, such as the gamma distribution for interevent times. The results of the analysis indicate that the statistical properties of the earthquake activity can be successfully reproduced by means of NESP and that the earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift is correlated at all-time scales.
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2013-09-12
    Description: The impact of initial spread calibration on the RELO ensemble and its application to Lagrangian dynamics Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 621-641, 2013 Author(s): M. Wei, G. Jacobs, C. Rowley, C. N. Barron, P. Hogan, P. Spence, O. M. Smedstad, P. Martin, P. Muscarella, and E. Coelho A number of real-time ocean model forecasts were carried out successfully at Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) to provide modeling support and numerical guidance to the CARTHE GLAD at-sea experiment during summer 2012. Two RELO ensembles and three single models using NCOM and HYCOM with different resolutions were carried out. A calibrated ensemble system with enhanced spread and reliability was developed to better support this experiment. The calibrated ensemble is found to outperform the un-calibrated ensemble in forecasting accuracy, skill, and reliability for all the variables and observation spaces evaluated. The metrics used in this paper include RMS error, anomaly correlation, PECA, Brier score, spread reliability, and Talagrand rank histogram. It is also found that even the un-calibrated ensemble outperforms the single forecast from the model with the same resolution. The advantages of the ensembles are further extended to the Lagrangian framework. In contrast to a single model forecast, the RELO ensemble provides not only the most likely Lagrangian trajectory for a particle in the ocean, but also an uncertainty estimate that directly reflects the complicated ocean dynamics, which is valuable for decision makers. The examples show that the calibrated ensemble with more reliability can capture trajectories in different, even opposite, directions, which would be missed by the un-calibrated ensemble. The ensembles are applied to compute the repelling and attracting Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs), and the uncertainties of the LCSs, which are hard to obtain from a single model forecast, are estimated. It is found that the spatial scales of the LCSs depend on the model resolution. The model with the highest resolution produces the finest, small-scale, LCS structures, while the model with lowest resolution generates only large-scale LCSs. The repelling and attracting LCSs are found to intersect at many locations and create complex mesoscale eddies. The fluid particles and drifters in the middle of these tangles are subject to attraction and repulsion simultaneously from these two kinds of LCSs. As a result, the movements of particles near the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) location are severely limited. This is also confirmed by the Lagrangian trajectories predicted by the ensembles.
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2013-09-12
    Description: Multifractal properties of embedded convective structures in orographic precipitation: toward subgrid-scale predictability Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 605-620, 2013 Author(s): M. Nogueira, A. P. Barros, and P. M. A. Miranda Rain and cloud fields produced by fully nonlinear idealized cloud resolving numerical simulations of orographic convective precipitation display statistical multiscaling behavior, implying that multifractal diagnostics should provide a physically robust basis for the downscaling and sub-grid scale parameterizations of moist processes. Our results show that the horizontal scaling exponent function (and respective multiscaling parameters) of the simulated rainfall and cloud fields varies with atmospheric and terrain properties, particularly small-scale terrain spectra, atmospheric stability, and advective timescale. This implies that multifractal diagnostics of moist processes for these simulations are fundamentally transient, exhibiting complex nonlinear behavior depending on atmospheric conditions and terrain forcing at each location. A particularly robust behavior found here is the transition of the multifractal parameters between stable and unstable cases, which has a clear physical correspondence to the transition from stratiform to organized (banded and cellular) convective regime. This result is reinforced by a similar behavior in the horizontal spectral exponent. Finally, our results indicate that although nonlinearly coupled fields (such as rain and clouds) have different scaling exponent functions, there are robust relationships with physical underpinnings between the scaling parameters that can be explored for hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling.
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2013-09-14
    Description: 3-D reflection seismic imaging of the Hontomín structure in the Basque-Cantabrian Basin (Spain) Solid Earth Discussions, 5, 1575-1614, 2013 Author(s): J. Alcalde, D. Martí, C. Juhlin, A. Malehmir, D. Sopher, E. Saura, I. Marzán, P. Ayarza, A. Calahorrano, A. Pérez-Estaún, and R. Carbonell The Basque-Cantabrian Basin of the Northern Iberia peninsula constitutes a unique example of a major deformation system, featuring a dome structure developed by extensional tectonics followed by compressional reactivation. The occurrence of natural resources in the area and the possibility of establishing a geological storage site for carbon dioxide motivated the acquisition of a 3-D seismic reflection survey in 2010, centered on the Jurassic Hontomín dome. The objectives of this survey were to obtain a geological model of the overall structure and to establish a baseline model for a possible geological CO 2 storage site. The 36 km 2 survey included approximately 5000 mixed (Vibroseis and explosives) source points recorded with a 25 m inline source and receiver spacing. The target reservoir is a saline aquifer, at approximately 1450 m depth, encased and sealed by carbonate formations. Acquisition and processing parameters were influenced by the rough topography and relatively complex geology. A strong near surface velocity inversion is evident in the data, affecting the quality of the data. The resulting 3-D image provides constraints on the key features of the geologic model. The Hontomín structure is interpreted to consist of an approximately 10 7 m 2 large elongated dome with two major W–E and NW–SE striking faults bounding it.
    Electronic ISSN: 1869-9537
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2013-09-17
    Description: Review of some significant claimed irregularities in Scandinavian postglacial uplift in time scales from tens to thousands of years: earthquakes? Solid Earth Discussions, 5, 1615-1640, 2013 Author(s): S. Gregersen The postglacial uplift/subsidence in Scandinavia is regular. And the phenomenon is similar in time scales of tens, hundreds and thousands of years studied via geodesy, seismology and geology. Searches for irregularities in the form of earthquakes claimed in the scientific literature have disclosed many earthquakes right after the Ice Age and some later cases for further evaluation. In a previous report the present author has mentioned doubts about the validity of some of the most significant claimed irregularities. In the present paper a review is made of these significant claimed irregularities in the southwestern flank of the Scandinavian postglacial uplift/subsidence via literature studies of geodetic and geological claims of earthquakes as well as discussions in the field. Geodetic observations exist for all of Scandinavia. Those describe the phenomenon in 10s–100s of years scale. Earthquake observations in seismology are of relevance in the same time scales. Geological studies of dated shore lines describe the postglacial vertical earth-surface motion in a quite different time scale of 100s–1000s of years. There is a need for integration of these observations geographically. This is happening in the various time scales in the DynaQlim project. The review finds the claims improbable about the following: (1) geodynamical motion in the Copenhagen area, (2) a paleo-earthquake in Læsø and (3) the recently proposed water level discrepancy in the southern part of Denmark. The assessment is less certain, but falls to improbable concerning (4) proposed paleo-earthquakes by Hallandsåsen in southwestern Sweden.
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2013-09-26
    Description: A top-down model to generate ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 683-704, 2013 Author(s): P. R. Furey, V. K. Gupta, and B. M. Troutman We hypothesize that total hillslope water loss for a rainfall–runoff event is inversely related to a function of a lognormal random variable, based on basin- and point-scale observations taken from the 21 km 2 Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) in Mississippi, USA. A top-down approach is used to develop a new runoff generation model both to test our physical-statistical hypothesis and to provide a method of generating ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes in a basin. The model is based on the assumption that the probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio have a space–time rescaling property. We test this assumption using streamflow and rainfall data from GCEW. For over 100 rainfall–runoff events, we find that the spatial probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio can be rescaled to a new distribution that is common to all events. We interpret random within-event differences in runoff/loss ratios in the model to arise from soil moisture spatial variability. Observations of water loss during events in GCEW support this interpretation. Our model preserves water balance in a mean statistical sense and supports our hypothesis. As an example, we use the model to generate ensembles of runoff at a large number of hillslopes for a rainfall–runoff event in GCEW.
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2013-09-26
    Description: A mechanism for catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation for sparse observation networks Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 705-712, 2013 Author(s): G. A. Gottwald and A. J. Majda We study catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation procedures whereby the forecast model develops severe numerical instabilities leading to a blow-up of the solution. Catastrophic filter divergence can occur in sparse observational grids with small observational noise for intermediate observation intervals and finite ensemble sizes. Using a minimal five-dimensional model, we establish that catastrophic filter divergence is a numerical instability of the underlying forecast model caused by the filtering procedure producing analyses which are not consistent with the true dynamics, and stiffness caused by the fast attraction of the inconsistent analyses towards the attractor during the forecast step.
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2013-06-08
    Description: Sub-inertial modulation of nonlinear Kelvin waves in the coastal zone Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 357-364, 2013 Author(s): D. V. Stepanov and V. V. Novotryasov Observational evidence is presented for interaction between nonlinear internal Kelvin waves at the ω t,i (where the ω t is the semidiurnal frequency and the ω i is the inertial frequency) and random oscillations of the background coastal current at the sub-inertial Ω frequency in the Japan/East Sea. Enhanced coastal currents at the sum ω + and difference ω-frequencies ω ± =ω t,i ± Ω have properties of propagating Kelvin waves, which suggests permanent energy exchange from the sub-inertial band to the mesoscale ω ± band. This interaction may be responsible for a greater-than-predicted intensification, steepening and breaking of boundary-trapped Kelvin waves. The problem of interaction between the nonlinear Kelvin wave at the frequency ω and the low-frequency narrowband noise with representative frequency Ω≪ω is investigated using the theory of nonlinear weak dispersion waves.
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2013-06-08
    Description: 3-D geomechanical modelling of a gas reservoir in the North German Basin: workflow for model building and calibration Solid Earth Discussions, 5, 767-788, 2013 Author(s): K. Fischer and A. Henk The optimal use of conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs depends, amongst others, on the local tectonic stress field. For example, wellbore stability, orientation of hydraulically induced fractures and – especially in fractured reservoirs – permeability anisotropies are controlled by the recent in situ stresses. Faults and lithological changes can lead to stress perturbations and produce local stresses that can significantly deviate from the regional stress field. Geomechanical reservoir models aim for a robust, ideally "pre-drilling" prediction of the local variations in stress magnitude and orientation. This requires a~numerical modelling approach that is capable to incorporate the specific geometry and mechanical properties of the subsurface reservoir. The workflow presented in this paper can be used to build 3-D geomechanical models based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) and ranging from field-scale models to smaller, detailed submodels of individual fault blocks. The approach is successfully applied to an intensively faulted gas reservoir in the North German Basin. The in situ stresses predicted by the geomechanical FE model were calibrated against stress data actually observed, e.g. borehole breakouts and extended leak-off tests. Such a validated model can provide insights into the stress perturbations in the inter-well space and undrilled parts of the reservoir. In addition, the tendency of the existing fault network to slip or dilate in the present-day stress regime can be addressed.
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2013-04-09
    Description: Application of wavelet transform for evaluation of hydrocarbon reservoirs: example from Iranian oil fields in the north of the Persian Gulf Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 231-238, 2013 Author(s): M. R. Saadatinejad and H. Hassani The Persian Gulf and its surrounding area are some of the biggest basins and have a very important role in producing huge amounts of hydrocarbon, and this potential was evaluated in order to explore the target for geoscientists and petroleum engineers. Wavelet transform is a useful and applicable technique to reveal frequency contents of various signals in different branches of science and especially in petroleum studies. We applied two major capacities of continuous mode of wavelet transform in seismic investigations. These investigations were operated to detect reservoir geological structures and some anomalies related to hydrocarbon to develop and explore new petroleum reservoirs in at least 4 oilfields in the southwest of Iran. It had been observed that continuous wavelet transform results show some discontinuities in the location of faults and are able to display them more clearly than other seismic methods. Moreover, continuous wavelet transform, utilizing Morlet wavelet, displays low-frequency shadows on 4 different iso-frequency vertical sections to identify reservoirs containing gas. By comparing these different figures, the presence of low-frequency shadows under the reservoir could be seen and we can relate these variations from anomalies at different frequencies as an indicator of the presence of hydrocarbons in the target reservoir.
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2013-09-17
    Description: Distributed allocation of mobile sensing swarms in gyre flows Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 657-668, 2013 Author(s): K. Mallory, M. A. Hsieh, E. Forgoston, and I. B. Schwartz We address the synthesis of distributed control policies to enable a swarm of homogeneous mobile sensors to maintain a desired spatial distribution in a geophysical flow environment, or workspace. In this article, we assume the mobile sensors (or robots) have a "map" of the environment denoting the locations of the Lagrangian coherent structures or LCS boundaries. Using this information, we design agent-level hybrid control policies that leverage the surrounding fluid dynamics and inherent environmental noise to enable the team to maintain a desired distribution in the workspace. We discuss the stability properties of the ensemble dynamics of the distributed control policies. Since realistic quasi-geostrophic ocean models predict double-gyre flow solutions, we use a wind-driven multi-gyre flow model to verify the feasibility of the proposed distributed control strategy and compare the proposed control strategy with a baseline deterministic allocation strategy. Lastly, we validate the control strategy using actual flow data obtained by our coherent structure experimental testbed.
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2013-09-25
    Description: Four-dimensional ensemble-variational data assimilation for global deterministic weather prediction Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 669-682, 2013 Author(s): M. Buehner, J. Morneau, and C. Charette The goal of this study is to evaluate a version of the ensemble-variational data assimilation approach (EnVar) for possible replacement of 4D-Var at Environment Canada for global deterministic weather prediction. This implementation of EnVar relies on 4-D ensemble covariances, obtained from an ensemble Kalman filter, that are combined in a vertically dependent weighted average with simple static covariances. Verification results are presented from a set of data assimilation experiments over two separate 6-week periods that used assimilated observations and model configuration very similar to the currently operational system. To help interpret the comparison of EnVar versus 4D-Var, additional experiments using 3D-Var and a version of EnVar with only 3-D ensemble covariances are also evaluated. To improve the rate of convergence for all approaches evaluated (including EnVar), an estimate of the cost function Hessian generated by the quasi-Newton minimization algorithm is cycled from one analysis to the next. Analyses from EnVar (with 4-D ensemble covariances) nearly always produce improved, and never degraded, forecasts when compared with 3D-Var. Comparisons with 4D-Var show that forecasts from EnVar analyses have either similar or better scores in the troposphere of the tropics and the winter extra-tropical region. However, in the summer extra-tropical region the medium-range forecasts from EnVar have either similar or worse scores than 4D-Var in the troposphere. In contrast, the 6 h forecasts from EnVar are significantly better than 4D-Var relative to radiosonde observations for both periods and in all regions. The use of 4-D versus 3-D ensemble covariances only results in small improvements in forecast quality. By contrast, the improvements from using 4D-Var versus 3D-Var are much larger. Measurement of the fit of the background and analyzed states to the observations suggests that EnVar and 4D-Var can both make better use of observations distributed over time than 3D-Var. In summary, the results from this study suggest that the EnVar approach is a viable alternative to 4D-Var, especially when the simplicity and computational efficiency of EnVar are considered. Additional research is required to understand the seasonal dependence of the difference in forecast quality between EnVar and 4D-Var in the extra-tropics.
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2011-06-17
    Description: Corrigendum to "Breeding and predictability in the baroclinic rotating annulus using a perfect model" published in Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 15, 469–487, 2008 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 359-359, 2011 Author(s): R. M. B. Young and P. L. Read No abstract available.
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2011-06-28
    Description: Strategies for coupling global and limited-area ensemble Kalman filter assimilation Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 415-430, 2011 Author(s): D. Merkova, I. Szunyogh, and E. Ott This paper compares the forecast performance of four strategies for coupling global and limited area data assimilation: three strategies propagate information from the global to the limited area process, while the fourth strategy feeds back information from the limited area to the global process. All four strategies are formulated in the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) framework. Numerical experiments are carried out with the model component of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM). The limited area domain is an extended North-America region that includes part of the north-east Pacific. The GFS is integrated at horizontal resolution T62 (about 150 km in the mid-latitudes), while the RSM is integrated at horizontal resolution 48 km. Experiments are carried out both under the perfect model hypothesis and in a realistic setting. The coupling strategies are evaluated by comparing their deterministic forecast performance at 12-h and 48-h lead times. The results suggest that the limited area data assimilation system has the potential to enhance the forecasts at 12-h lead time in the limited area domain at the synoptic and sub-synoptic scales (in the global wave number range of about 10 to 40). There is a clear indication that between the forecast performance of the different coupling strategies those that cycle the limited area assimilation process produce the most accurate forecasts. In the realistic setting, at 12-h forecast time the limited area systems produce more modest improvements compared to the global system than under the perfect model hypothesis, and at 48-h forecast time the global forecasts are more accurate than the limited area forecasts.
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2011-06-15
    Description: Spectral methods for internal waves: indistinguishable density profiles and double-humped solitary waves Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 351-358, 2011 Author(s): M. Dunphy, C. Subich, and M. Stastna Internal solitary waves are widely observed in both the oceans and large lakes. They can be described by a variety of mathematical theories, covering the full spectrum from first order asymptotic theory (i.e. Korteweg-de Vries, or KdV, theory), through higher order extensions of weakly nonlinear-weakly nonhydrostatic theory, to fully nonlinear-weakly nonhydrostatic theories and finally exact theory based on the Dubreil-Jacotin-Long (DJL) equation that is formally equivalent to the full set of Euler equations. We discuss how spectral and pseudospectral methods allow for the computation of novel phenomena in both approximate and exact theories. In particular we construct markedly different density profiles for which the coefficients in the KdV theory are very nearly identical. These two density profiles yield qualitatively different behaviour for both exact, or fully nonlinear, waves computed using the DJL equation and in dynamic simulations of the time dependent Euler equations. For exact, DJL, theory we compute exact solitary waves with two-scales, or so-called double-humped waves.
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2011-06-22
    Description: A nonlinear method of removing harmonic noise in geophysical data Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 367-379, 2011 Author(s): Y. Jeng and C.-S. Chen A nonlinear, adaptive method to remove the harmonic noise that commonly resides in geophysical data is proposed in this study. This filtering method is based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition algorithm in conjunction with the logarithmic transform. We present a synthetic model study to investigate the capability of signal reconstruction from the decomposed data, and compare the results with those derived from other 2-D adaptive filters. Applications to the real seismic data acquired by using an ocean bottom seismograph and to a shot gather of the ground penetrating radar demonstrate the robustness of this method. Our work proposes a concept that instead of Fourier-based approaches, the harmonic noise removal in geophysical data can be achieved effectively by using an alternative nonlinear adaptive data analysis method, which has been applied extensively in other scientific studies.
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2011-06-24
    Description: Comparison of correlation analysis techniques for irregularly sampled time series Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 389-404, 2011 Author(s): K. Rehfeld, N. Marwan, J. Heitzig, and J. Kurths Geoscientific measurements often provide time series with irregular time sampling, requiring either data reconstruction (interpolation) or sophisticated methods to handle irregular sampling. We compare the linear interpolation technique and different approaches for analyzing the correlation functions and persistence of irregularly sampled time series, as Lomb-Scargle Fourier transformation and kernel-based methods. In a thorough benchmark test we investigate the performance of these techniques. All methods have comparable root mean square errors (RMSEs) for low skewness of the inter-observation time distribution. For high skewness, very irregular data, interpolation bias and RMSE increase strongly. We find a 40 % lower RMSE for the lag-1 autocorrelation function (ACF) for the Gaussian kernel method vs. the linear interpolation scheme,in the analysis of highly irregular time series. For the cross correlation function (CCF) the RMSE is then lower by 60 %. The application of the Lomb-Scargle technique gave results comparable to the kernel methods for the univariate, but poorer results in the bivariate case. Especially the high-frequency components of the signal, where classical methods show a strong bias in ACF and CCF magnitude, are preserved when using the kernel methods. We illustrate the performances of interpolation vs. Gaussian kernel method by applying both to paleo-data from four locations, reflecting late Holocene Asian monsoon variability as derived from speleothem δ 18 O measurements. Cross correlation results are similar for both methods, which we attribute to the long time scales of the common variability. The persistence time (memory) is strongly overestimated when using the standard, interpolation-based, approach. Hence, the Gaussian kernel is a reliable and more robust estimator with significant advantages compared to other techniques and suitable for large scale application to paleo-data.
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2011-06-17
    Description: Brief communication "On one mechanism of low frequency variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current" Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 361-365, 2011 Author(s): O. G. Derzho and B. de Young In this paper we present a simple analytical model for low frequency and large scale variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The physical mechanism of the variability is related to temporal and spatial variations of the cyclonic mean flow (ACC) due to circularly propagating nonlinear barotropic Rossby wave trains. It is shown that the Rossby wave train is a fundamental mode, trapped between the major fronts in the ACC. The Rossby waves are predicted to rotate with a particular angular velocity that depends on the magnitude and width of the mean current. The spatial structure of the rotating pattern, including its zonal wave number, is defined by the specific form of the stream function-vorticity relation. The similarity between the simulated patterns and the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) is highlighted. The model can predict the observed sequence of warm and cold patches in the ACW as well as its zonal number.
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2011-06-22
    Description: A semi-phenomenological approach to explain the event-size distribution of the Drossel-Schwabl forest-fire model Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 381-388, 2011 Author(s): S. Hergarten and R. Krenn We present a novel approach to explain the complex scaling behavior of the Drossel-Schwabl forest-fire model in two dimensions. Clusters of trees are characterized by their size and perimeter only, whereas spatial correlations are neglected. Coalescence of clusters is restricted to clusters of similar sizes. Our approach derives the value of the scaling exponent τ of the event size distribution directly from the scaling of the accessible perimeter of percolation clusters. We obtain τ = 1.19 in the limit of infinite growth rate, in perfect agreement with numerical results. Furthermore, our approach predicts the unusual transition from a power law to an exponential decay even quantitatively, while the exponential decay at large event sizes itself is reproduced only qualitatively.
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2011-06-25
    Description: Double rank-ordering technique of ROMA (Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis) for multifractal fluctuations featuring multiple regimes of scales Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 405-414, 2011 Author(s): S. W. Y. Tam and T. Chang Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis (ROMA), a technique capable of deciphering the multifractal characteristics of intermittent fluctuations, was originally applied to the results of a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation. Application of ROMA to measured fluctuations in the auroral zone, due to the dominant physical effects changing from kinetic to MHD as the scale increases, requires an additional level of rank-ordering in order to divide the domain of scales into regimes. An algorithm for the additional step in this double rank-ordering technique is discussed, and is demonstrated in the application to the electric field fluctuations in the auroral zone as an example. As a result of the double rank-ordering, ROMA is able to take into account the nonlinear crossover behavior characterized by the multiple regimes of time scales by providing a scaling variable and a scaling function that are global to all the time scales.
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2011-05-13
    Description: Positive geothermal anomalies in oceanic crust of Cretaceous age offshore Kamchatka Solid Earth Discussions, 3, 453-476, 2011 Author(s): G. Delisle Heat flow measurements were carried out in 2009 offshore Kamchatka during the German-Russian joint-expedition KALMAR. An area with elevated heat flow in oceanic crust of Cretaceous age – detected ~30 years ago in the course of several Russian heat flow surveys – was revisited. One previous interpretation postulated anomalous lithospheric conditions or a connection between a postulated mantle plume at great depth (〉 200 km) as the source for the observed high heat flow. However, the positive heat flow anomaly – as our bathymetric data show – is closely associated with the fragmentation of the western flank of the Meiji Seamount into a horst and graben structure, initiated during descend of the oceanic crust into the subduction zone offshore Kamchatka. This paper offers an alternative interpretation, which connects high heat flow primarily with natural convection of fluids in the fragmented rock mass and, as a potential additional factor, high rates of erosion, for which evidence is available from our collected bathymetric image. Given high erosion rates, warm rock material at depth rises to nearer the sea floor, where it cools and causes temporary elevated heat flow.
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2011-05-20
    Description: Metamorphic history and geodynamic significance of the Early Cretaceous Sabzevar granulites (Sabzevar structural zone, NE Iran) Solid Earth Discussions, 3, 477-526, 2011 Author(s): M. Nasrabady, F. Rossetti, T. Theye, and G. Vignaroli The Iranian ophiolites are part of the vast orogenic suture zones that mark the Alpine-Himalayan convergence zone. Few petrological and geochronological data are available from these ophiolitic domains, hampering a full assessment of the timing and regimes of subduction zone metamorphism and orogenic construction in the region. This paper describes texture, geochemistry and the pressure-temperature path of the Early Cretaceous granulites that occur within the Tertiary Sabzevar suture zone of NE Iran. The geochemical data set document that the granulites are remnants of a MORB-type oceanic crust and thus of a (Early Cretaceous ?) back-arc basin formed in the upper plate of the Neotethyan subduction and thus interpreted as portions of a dismembered dynamothermal sole formed during oceanic subduction. The metamorphic history of the granulites suggests an anticlockwise pressure-temperature loop, compatible with burial in a hot subduction zone followed by cooling during exhumation. This is interpreted as the evidence of a nascent subduction zone formed at the expenses of hot and hence young oceanic lithosphere. These data point to diachronous and independent tectonic evolutions of the different ophiolitic domains of central Iran, for which a growing heterogeneity in the timing of metamorphic equilibration and of pressure-temperature paths can be expected with further investigations.
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2014-12-06
    Description: Large eddy simulation of sediment transport over rippled beds Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, 1169-1184, 2014 Author(s): J. C. Harris and S. T. Grilli Wave-induced boundary layer (BL) flows over sandy rippled bottoms are studied using a numerical model that applies a one-way coupling of a "far-field" inviscid flow model to a "near-field" large eddy simulation (LES) Navier–Stokes (NS) model. The incident inviscid velocity and pressure fields force the LES, in which near-field, wave-induced, turbulent bottom BL flows are simulated. A sediment suspension and transport model is embedded within the coupled flow model. The numerical implementation of the various models has been reported elsewhere, where we showed that the LES was able to accurately simulate both mean flow and turbulent statistics for oscillatory BL flows over a flat, rough bed. Here we show that the model accurately predicts the mean velocity fields and suspended sediment concentration for oscillatory flows over full-scale vortex ripples. Tests show that surface roughness has a significant effect on the results. Beyond increasing our insight into wave-induced oscillatory bottom BL physics, sophisticated coupled models of sediment transport such as that presented have the potential to make quantitative predictions of sediment transport and erosion/accretion around partly buried objects in the bottom, which is important for a vast array of bottom deployed instrumentation and other practical ocean engineering problems.
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2014-12-06
    Description: Dependence of sandpile avalanche frequency–size distribution on coverage extent and compactness of embedded toppling threshold heterogeneity: implications for the variation of Gutenberg–Richter b value Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, 1185-1193, 2014 Author(s): L.-Y. Chiao and Q. Liu The effects of the spatiotemporal evolution of failure threshold heterogeneity on the dynamics of fault criticality, and thus on regional seismogenesis, have attracted strong interest in the field of regional seismotectonics. The heterogeneity might be a manifestation of the macroscopic distribution and multiscale strength variation of asperities, the distinct regional stress level, and (microscopically) heterogeneous fault surface roughness or friction regimes. In this study, rather than attempting to mimic the complex microscale slipping physics on a fault surface, sandpile cellular automata were implemented with a straightforward toppling rule. The objective is to examine the influence of distinct configurations of the embedded heterogeneous toppling threshold field on the global system avalanche event statistics. The examination results revealed that increasing the coverage extent and decreasing the compactness of the heterogeneous failure threshold, rather than the magnitude, range of contrast, diversity, or the geometric configuration of the threshold heterogeneity, leads to a systematic increase in the scaling exponent of the avalanche event power law statistics, implying the importance of mutual interaction among toppling sites with distinct thresholds. For tectonic provinces with differing stress regimes evolving spatio temporally, it is postulated that the distinct extent and compactness of the heterogeneous failure threshold are critical factors that manifest in the reported dynamic variations of seismicity scaling.
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2014-11-29
    Description: Instability and change detection in exponential families and generalized linear models, with a study of Atlantic tropical storms Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, 1133-1143, 2014 Author(s): Y. Lu and S. Chatterjee Exponential family statistical distributions, including the well-known normal, binomial, Poisson, and exponential distributions, are overwhelmingly used in data analysis. In the presence of covariates, an exponential family distributional assumption for the response random variables results in a generalized linear model. However, it is rarely ensured that the parameters of the assumed distributions are stable through the entire duration of the data collection process. A failure of stability leads to nonsmoothness and nonlinearity in the physical processes that result in the data. In this paper, we propose testing for stability of parameters of exponential family distributions and generalized linear models. A rejection of the hypothesis of stable parameters leads to change detection. We derive the related likelihood ratio test statistic. We compare the performance of this test statistic to the popular normal distributional assumption dependent cumulative sum (Gaussian CUSUM) statistic in change detection problems. We study Atlantic tropical storms using the techniques developed here, so to understand whether the nature of these tropical storms has remained stable over the last few decades.
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2011-05-07
    Description: Rank ordering multifractal analysis of the auroral electrojet index Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 277-285, 2011 Author(s): G. Consolini and P. De Michelis In the second half of the 90s interest grew on the complex features of the magnetospheric dynamics in response to solar wind changes. An important series of papers were published on the occurrence of chaos, turbulence and complexity. Among them, particularly interesting was the study of the bursty and fractal/multifractal character of the high latitude energy release during geomagnetic storms, which was evidenced by analyzing the features of the Auroral Electrojet (AE) indices. Recently, the multifractal features of the small time-scale increments of AE-indices have been criticized in favor of a more simple fractal behavior. This is particularly true for the scaling features of the probability density functions (PDFs) of the AE index increments. Here, after a brief review of the nature of the fractal/multifractal features of the magnetospheric response to solar wind changes, we investigate the multifractal nature of the scaling features of the AE index increments PDFs using the Rank Ordering Multifractal Analysis (ROMA) technique. The ROMA results clearly demonstrate the existence of a hierarchy of scaling indices, depending on the increment amplitude, for the data collapsing of PDFs relative to increments at different time scales. Our results confirm the previous results by Consolini et al. (1996) and the more recent results by Rypdal and Rypdal (2010).
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2011-04-02
    Description: New zircon data supporting models of short-lived igneous activity at 1.89 Ga in the western Skellefte District, central Fennoscandian Shield Solid Earth Discussions, 3, 355-383, 2011 Author(s): P. Skyttä, T. Hermansson, J. Andersson, and P. Weihed New U-Th-Pb zircon data (SIMS) from three intrusive phases of the Palaeoproterozoic Viterliden intrusion in the western Skellefte District, central Fennoscandian Shield, dates igneous emplacement in a narrow time interval at about 1.89 Ga. A locally occurring quartz-plagioclase porphyritic tonalite, here dated at 1889 ± 3 Ma, is, based on the new age data and field evidence, considered the youngest of the intrusive units. This supports an existing interpretation of its fault-controlled emplacement after intrusion of the dominating hornblende-tonalite units, in this study dated at 1892 ± 3 Ma. The Viterliden magmatism was synchronous with the oldest units of the Jörn type early-orogenic intrusions in the eastern part of the district (1.89–1.88 Ga; cf. Gonzàles Roldán, 2010). A U-Pb zircon age for a felsic metavolcanic rock from the hanging-wall to the Kristineberg VMS deposit, immediately south of the Viterliden intrusion, is in this study constrained in the 1.89–1.88 Ga time interval. It provides a minimum age for the Kristineberg ore deposit and suggests contemporaneous igneous/volcanic activity throughout the Skellefte District. Furthermore, it supports the view that the Skellefte Group defines a laterally continuous belt throughout this "ore district". Tentative correlation of the 1889 ± 3 Ma quartz-plagioclase porphyritic tonalite with the Kristineberg "mine porphyry", which cuts the altered ore-hosting metavolcanic rocks, further constrain the minimum age for ore deposition at 1889 ± 3 Ma. Based on the new age determinations, the Viterliden intrusion may equally well have intruded into, or locally acted as a basement for the ore-hosting Skellefte Group volcanic rocks.
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2011-10-08
    Description: Preface Large amplitude internal waves in the coastal ocean Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 653-655, 2011 Author(s): R. Grimshaw, K. Helfrich, and A. Scotti No Abstract available.
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2011-07-14
    Description: Size distribution and structure of Barchan dune fields Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 455-467, 2011 Author(s): O. Durán, V. Schwämmle, P. G. Lind, and H. J. Herrmann Barchans are isolated mobile dunes often organized in large dune fields. Dune fields seem to present a characteristic dune size and spacing, which suggests a cooperative behavior based on dune interaction. In Duran et al. (2009), we propose that the redistribution of sand by collisions between dunes is a key element for the stability and size selection of barchan dune fields. This approach was based on a mean-field model ignoring the spatial distribution of dune fields. Here, we present a simplified dune field model that includes the spatial evolution of individual dunes as well as their interaction through sand exchange and binary collisions. As a result, the dune field evolves towards a steady state that depends on the boundary conditions. Comparing our results with measurements of Moroccan dune fields, we find that the simulated fields have the same dune size distribution as in real fields but fail to reproduce their homogeneity along the wind direction.
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2011-12-03
    Description: Combining 2-m temperature nowcasting and short range ensemble forecasting Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 903-910, 2011 Author(s): A. Kann, T. Haiden, and C. Wittmann During recent years, numerical ensemble prediction systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties of dynamical and physical processes as represented in numerical weather models. The latest generation of limited area ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPSs) allows for probabilistic forecasts at high resolution in both space and time. However, these systems still suffer from systematic deficiencies. Especially for nowcasting (0–6 h) applications the ensemble spread is smaller than the actual forecast error. This paper tries to generate probabilistic short range 2-m temperature forecasts by combining a state-of-the-art nowcasting method and a limited area ensemble system, and compares the results with statistical methods. The Integrated Nowcasting Through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system, which has been in operation at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) since 2006 (Haiden et al., 2011), provides short range deterministic forecasts at high temporal (15 min–60 min) and spatial (1 km) resolution. An INCA Ensemble (INCA-EPS) of 2-m temperature forecasts is constructed by applying a dynamical approach, a statistical approach, and a combined dynamic-statistical method. The dynamical method takes uncertainty information (i.e. ensemble variance) from the operational limited area ensemble system ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) which is running operationally at ZAMG (Wang et al., 2011). The purely statistical method assumes a well-calibrated spread-skill relation and applies ensemble spread according to the skill of the INCA forecast of the most recent past. The combined dynamic-statistical approach adapts the ensemble variance gained from ALADIN-LAEF with non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR) which yields a statistical \mbox{correction} of the first and second moment (mean bias and dispersion) for Gaussian distributed continuous variables. Validation results indicate that all three methods produce sharp and reliable probabilistic 2-m temperature forecasts. However, the statistical and combined dynamic-statistical methods slightly outperform the pure dynamical approach, mainly due to the under-dispersive behavior of ALADIN-LAEF outside the nowcasting range. The training length does not have a pronounced impact on forecast skill, but a spread re-scaling improves the forecast skill substantially. Refinements of the statistical methods yield a slight further improvement.
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2012-02-14
    Description: Spatial patterns of linear and nonparametric long-term trends in Baltic sea-level variability Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 95-111, 2012 Author(s): R. V. Donner, R. Ehrcke, S. M. Barbosa, J. Wagner, J. F. Donges, and J. Kurths The study of long-term trends in tide gauge data is important for understanding the present and future risk of changes in sea-level variability for coastal zones, particularly with respect to the ongoing debate on climate change impacts. Traditionally, most corresponding analyses have exclusively focused on trends in mean sea-level. However, such studies are not able to provide sufficient information about changes in the full probability distribution (especially in the more extreme quantiles). As an alternative, in this paper we apply quantile regression (QR) for studying changes in arbitrary quantiles of sea-level variability. For this purpose, we chose two different QR approaches and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different settings. In particular, traditional linear QR poses very restrictive assumptions that are often not met in reality. For monthly data from 47 tide gauges from along the Baltic Sea coast, the spatial patterns of quantile trends obtained in linear and nonparametric (spline-based) frameworks display marked differences, which need to be understood in order to fully assess the impact of future changes in sea-level variability on coastal areas. In general, QR demonstrates that the general variability of Baltic sea-level has increased over the last decades. Linear quantile trends estimated for sliding windows in time reveal a wide-spread acceleration of trends in the median, but only localised changes in the rates of changes in the lower and upper quantiles.
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2012-02-15
    Description: In plain sight: the Chesapeake Bay crater ejecta blanket Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 363-428, 2012 Author(s): D. L. Griscom The discovery nearly two decades ago of a 90 km-diameter impact crater below the lower Chesapeake Bay has gone unnoted by the general public because to date all published literature on the subject has described it as "buried". To the contrary, evidence is presented here that the so-called "upland deposits" that blanket ∼5000 km 2 of the U.S. Middle-Atlantic Coastal Plain (M-ACP) display morphologic, lithologic, and stratigraphic features consistent with their being ejecta from the 35.4 Ma Chesapeake Bay Impact Structure (CBIS) and absolutely inconsistent with the prevailing belief that they are of fluvial origin. Specifically supporting impact origin are the facts that (i) a 95 %-pure iron ore endemic to the upland deposits of southern Maryland, eastern Virginia, and the District of Columbia has previously been proven to be impactoclastic in origin, (ii) this iron ore welds together a small percentage of well-rounded quartzite pebbles and cobbles of the upland deposits into brittle sheets interpretable as "spall plates" created in the interference-zone of the CBIS impact, (iii) the predominantly non-welded upland gravels have long ago been shown to be size sorted with an extreme crater-centric gradient far too large to have been the work of rivers, but well explained as atmospheric size-sorted interference-zone ejecta, (iv) new evidence is provided here that ~60 % of the non-welded quartzite pebbles and cobbles of the (lower lying) gravel member of the upland deposits display planar fractures attributable to interference-zone tensile waves, (v) the (overlying) loam member of the upland deposits is attributable to base-surge-type deposition, (vi) several exotic clasts found in a debris flow topographically below the upland deposits can only be explained as jetting-phase crater ejecta, and (vii) an allogenic granite boulder found among the upland deposits is deduced to have been launched into space and sculpted by hypervelocity air friction during reentry. An idealized calculation of the CBIS ejecta-blanket elevation profile minutes after the impact was carried out founded on well established rules for explosion and impact-generated craters. This profile is shown here to match the volume of the upland deposits ≥170 km from the crater center. Closer to the crater, much of the "postdicted" ejecta blanket has clearly been removed by erosion. Nevertheless the Shirley and fossil-free Bacons Castle Formations, located between the upland deposits and the CBIS interior and veneering the present day surface with units ∼10–20 m deep, are respectively identified as curtain- and excavation-phase ejecta. The neritic-fossil-bearing Calvert Formation external to the crater is deduced to be of Eocene age (as opposed to early Miocene as currently believed), preserved by the armoring effects of the overlying CBIS ejecta composed of the (distal) upland deposits and the (proximal) Bacons Castle Formation. The lithofacies of the in-crater Calvert Formation can only have resulted from inward mass wasting of the postdicted ejecta blanket, vestiges of which (i.e. the Bacons Castle and Shirley Formations) still overlap the crater rim and sag into its interior, consistent with this expectation. Because there appear to be a total of ∼10 000 km 2 of CBIS ejecta lying on the present-day surface, future research should center the stratigraphic, lithologic, and petrologic properties of these ejecta versus both radial distance from the crater center (to identify ejecta from different ejection stages) and circumferentially at fixed radial distances (to detect possible anisotropies relating the impact angle and direction of approach of the impactor). The geological units described here may comprise the best preserved, and certainly the most accessible, ejecta blanket of a major crater on the Earth's surface and therefore promise to be a boon to the field of impact geology. As a corollary, a major revision of the current stratigraphic column of the M-ACP will be necessary.
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2012-02-16
    Description: On closure parameter estimation in chaotic systems Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 127-143, 2012 Author(s): J. Hakkarainen, A. Ilin, A. Solonen, M. Laine, H. Haario, J. Tamminen, E. Oja, and H. Järvinen Many dynamical models, such as numerical weather prediction and climate models, contain so called closure parameters. These parameters usually appear in physical parameterizations of sub-grid scale processes, and they act as "tuning handles" of the models. Currently, the values of these parameters are specified mostly manually, but the increasing complexity of the models calls for more algorithmic ways to perform the tuning. Traditionally, parameters of dynamical systems are estimated by directly comparing the model simulations to observed data using, for instance, a least squares approach. However, if the models are chaotic, the classical approach can be ineffective, since small errors in the initial conditions can lead to large, unpredictable deviations from the observations. In this paper, we study numerical methods available for estimating closure parameters in chaotic models. We discuss three techniques: off-line likelihood calculations using filtering methods, the state augmentation method, and the approach that utilizes summary statistics from long model simulations. The properties of the methods are studied using a modified version of the Lorenz 95 system, where the effect of fast variables are described using a simple parameterization.
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2012-12-19
    Description: Effects of fire on ash thickness in a Lithuanian grassland and short-term spatio-temporal changes Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 1545-1584, 2012 Author(s): P. Pereira, A. Cerdà, X. Úbeda, J. Mataix-Solera, D. Martin, A. Jordán, and M. Burguet Ash thickness is a key variable in the protection of soil against erosion agents after planned and unplanned fires. Thicker ash provides better protection against raindrop impact and reduces the runoff response by retaining water and promoting water infiltration although little is known about the distribution and the evolution of the ash layer after the fires. Ash thickness measurements were conducted along two transects (flat and sloping areas) following a a grid experimental design. Both transects extended from the burned area into an adjacent unburned area. We analysed ash thickness evolution according to time and fire severity. In order to interpolate data with accuracy and identify the techniques with the least bias, several interpolation methods were tested in the grid plot. Overall, the fire had a low severity. The fire significantly reduced the ground cover, especially on sloping areas owing to the higher fire severity and/or less biomass previous to the fire. Ash thickness depends on fire severity and is thin where fire severity was higher and thicker in lower fire severity sites. The ash thickness decreased with time after the fire. Between 4 and 16 days after the fire, ash was transported by wind. The major reduction took place between 16 and 34 days after the fire as a result of rainfall, and was more efficient where fire severity was higher. Between 34 and 45 days after the fire no significant differences in ash thickness were identified among ash colours and only traces of the ash layer remained. The omni-directional experimental variograms shown that variable structure did not change importantly with the time, however, the most accurate interpolation methods were different highlighting the slight different patterns of ash thickness distribution with the time. The ash spatial variability increased with the time, particularly on the slope, as a result of water erosion.
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2013-01-16
    Description: Comprehensive analysis of tornado statistics in comparison to earthquakes: intensity and temporal behaviour Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 47-57, 2013 Author(s): L. Schielicke and P. Névir Tornadoes and earthquakes are characterised by a high variability in their properties concerning intensity, geometric properties and temporal behaviour. Earthquakes are known for power-law behaviour in their intensity (Gutenberg–Richter law) and temporal statistics (e.g. Omori law and interevent waiting times). The observed similarity of high variability of these two phenomena motivated us to compare the statistical behaviour of tornadoes using seismological methods and quest for power-law behaviour. In general, the statistics of tornadoes show power-law behaviour partly coextensive with characteristic scales when the temporal resolution is high (10 to 60 min). These characteristic scales match with the typical diurnal behaviour of tornadoes, which is characterised by a maximum of tornado occurrences in the late afternoon hours. Furthermore, the distributions support the observation that tornadoes cluster in time. Finally, we shortly discuss a possible similar underlying structure composed of heterogeneous, coupled, interactive threshold oscillators that possibly explains the observed behaviour.
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2013-01-16
    Description: Quantifying soil complexity using network models of soil porous structure Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 41-45, 2013 Author(s): M. Samec, A. Santiago, J. P. Cárdenas, R. M. Benito, A. M. Tarquis, S. J. Mooney, and D. Korošak This paper describes an investigation into the properties of spatially embedded complex networks representing the porous architecture of soil systems. We suggest an approach to quantify the complexity of soil pore structure based on the node-node link correlation properties of the networks. We show that the complexity depends on the strength of spatial embedding of the network and that this is related to the transition from a non-compact to compact phase of the network.
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2013-01-16
    Description: Quantification of magma ascent rate through rockfall monitoring at the growing/collapsing lava dome of Volcán de Colima, Mexico Solid Earth Discussions, 5, 1-39, 2013 Author(s): S. B. Mueller, N. R. Varley, U. Kueppers, P. Lesage, G. Á. Reyes Davila, and D. B. Dingwell The most recent eruptive phase of Volcán de Colima, Mexico, started in 1998 and was characterized by episodic dome growth with a variable effusion rate, interrupted intermittently by explosive eruptions. Between November 2009 and June 2011, growth at the dome was limited to a lobe on the western side where it had previously started overflowing the crater rim, leading to the generation of rockfall events. This meant that no significant increase in dome volume was perceivable and the rate of magma ascent, a crucial parameter for volcano monitoring and hazard assessment, could no longer be quantified via measurements of the dome's dimensions. Here, we present alternative approaches to quantify the magma ascent rate. We estimate the volume of individual rockfalls through the detailed analysis of sets of photographs (before and after individual rockfall events). The relationship between volume and infrared images of the freshly exposed dome surface and the seismic signals related to the rockfall events was then investigated. Larger events exhibited a correlation between the previously estimated volume of a rockfall and the surface temperature of the freshly exposed dome surface as well as the mean temperature of rockfall masses distributed over the slope. We showed that for larger events, the volume of the rockfall correlates with the maximum temperature at the newly formed cliff as well as the seismic energy. By calibrating the seismic signals using the volumes estimated from photographs, the count of rockfalls over a certain period was used to estimate the magma extrusion flux for the period investigated. Over the course of the measurement period, significant changes were observed in number of rockfalls, rockfall volume and hence averaged extrusion rate. The extrusion rate was not constant: it increased from 0.008 m 3 s −1 to 0.02 m 3 s −1 during 2010 and dropped down to 0.008 m 3 s −1 again in March 2011. In June 2011, magma extrusion had come to a halt. The methodology presented represents a reliable tool to constrain the growth rate of domes that are repeatedly affected by partial collapses. There is a good correlation between thermal and seismic energies and rockfall volume. Thus it is possible to calibrate the seismic records associated with the rockfalls (a continuous monitoring tool) to improve both volcano monitoring at volcanoes with active dome growth and hazard management associated with rockfalls specifically.
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2013-01-17
    Description: Analysis of asymmetries in propagating mode-2 waves Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 59-69, 2013 Author(s): J. Olsthoorn, A. Baglaenko, and M. Stastna Using numerical simulations performed with a pseudo-spectral incompressible Navier–Stokes solver, we describe the asymmetries that arise in the recirculating core of mode-2 internal, solitary-like waves. The waves are generated in a manner consistent with many laboratory studies, namely via the collapse of a region of mixed fluid. Analysis of the simulations reveals that asymmetries across both the wave crest and the pycnocline centre develop in the spatial distribution of density, kinetic energy and a passive tracer transported by the mode-2 waves. The simulations are extended to three-dimensions to allow for the formation of spanwise instabilities. We find that three-dimensionalization modifies the structure and energetics of the core, but that the majority of the results obtained from two dimensional simulations remain valid. Taken together, our simulations demonstrate that the cores of solitary-like mode-2 waves are different then their counterparts for mode-1 waves and that their accurate characterization on both lab and field scales should account for the core asymmetry across the pycnocline centre.
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  • 40
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    Copernicus
    Publication Date: 2013-01-17
    Description: Kinematics of the South Atlantic rift Solid Earth Discussions, 5, 41-116, 2013 Author(s): C. Heine, J. Zoethout, and R. D. Müller The South Atlantic rift basin evolved as branch of a large Jurassic-Cretaceous intraplate rift zone between the African and South American plates during the final breakup of western Gondwana. While the relative motions between South America and Africa for post-breakup times are well resolved, many issues pertaining to the fit reconstruction and particular the relation between kinematics and lithosphere dynamics during pre-breakup remain unclear in currently published plate models. We have compiled and assimilated data from these intraplated rifts and constructed a revised plate kinematic model for the pre-breakup evolution of the South Atlantic. Based on structural restoration of the conjugate South Atlantic margins and intracontinental rift basins in Africa and South America, we achieve a tight fit reconstruction which eliminates the need for previously inferred large intracontinental shear zones, in particular in Patagonian South America. By quantitatively accounting for crustal deformation in the Central and West African rift zone, we have been able to indirectly construct the kinematic history of the pre-breakup evolution of the conjugate West African-Brazilian margins. Our model suggests a causal link between changes in extension direction and velocity during continental extension and the generation of marginal structures such as the enigmatic Pre-salt sag basin and the São Paulo High. We model an initial E–W directed extension between South America and Africa (fixed in present-day position) at very low extensional velocities until Upper Hauterivian times (≈126 Ma) when rift activity along in the equatorial Atlantic domain started to increase significantly. During this initial ≈17 Myr-long stretching episode the Pre-salt basin width on the conjugate Brazilian and West African margins is generated. An intermediate stage between 126.57 Ma and Base Aptian is characterised by strain localisation, rapid lithospheric weakening in the equatorial Atlantic domain, resulting in both progressively increasing extensional velocities as well as a significant rotation of the extension direction to NE–SW. From Base Aptian onwards diachronous lithospheric breakup occurred along the central South Atlantic rift, first in the Sergipe-Alagoas/Rio Muni margin segment in the northernmost South Atlantic. Final breakup between South America and Africa occurred in the conjugate Santos–Benguela margin segment at around 113 Ma and in the Equatorial Atlantic domain between the Ghanaian Ridge and the Piauí-Ceará margin at 103 Ma. We conclude that such a multi-velocity, multi-directional rift history exerts primary control on the evolution of this conjugate passive margins systems and can explain the first order tectonic structures along the South Atlantic and possibly other passive margins.
    Electronic ISSN: 1869-9537
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2013-02-22
    Description: Ion motion in the current sheet with sheared magnetic field – Part 1: Quasi-adiabatic theory Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 163-178, 2013 Author(s): A. V. Artemyev, A. I. Neishtadt, and L. M. Zelenyi We present a theory of trapped ion motion in the magnetotail current sheet with a constant dawn–dusk component of the magnetic field. Particle trajectories are described analytically using the quasi-adiabatic invariant corresponding to averaging of fast oscillations around the tangential component of the magnetic field. We consider particle dynamics in the quasi-adiabatic approximation and demonstrate that the principal role is played by large (so called geometrical) jumps of the quasi-adiabatic invariant. These jumps appear due to the current sheet asymmetry related to the presence of the dawn–dusk magnetic field. The analytical description is compared with results of numerical integration. We show that there are four possible regimes of particle motion. Each regime is characterized by certain ranges of values of the dawn–dusk magnetic field and particle energy. We find the critical value of the dawn–dusk magnetic field, where jumps of the quasi-adiabatic invariant vanish.
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2013-02-23
    Description: Land-use change effects on soil quality in Montilla-Moriles DO, Southern Spain Solid Earth Discussions, 5, 163-187, 2013 Author(s): M. Martín-Carrillo, L. Parras-Alcántara, and B. Lozano-García The agricultural Mediterranean areas are dedicated to arable crops (AC), but in the last few decades, a significant number of AC has a land use change (LUC) to olive grove cultivations (OG) and vineyards (V). A field study was conducted to determine the long-term effects (46 yr) of LUC (AC by OG and V) and to determine soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN), C:N ratio and their stratification across the soil entire profile, in Montilla-Moriles denomination of origin (DO), in Calcic-Chromic Luvisols (LVcc/cr), an area under semiarid Mediterranean conditions. The experimental design consisted of studying the LUC on one farm between 1965 and 2011. Originally, only AC was farmed in 1965, but OG and V were farmed up to now (2011). This LUC principally affected the thickness horizon, texture, bulk density, pH, organic matter, organic carbon, total nitrogen and C:N ratio. The LUC had a negative impact in the soil, affecting the SOC and TN stocks. The conversion from AC to V and OG involved the loss of the SOC stock (52.7% and 64.9% to V and OG, respectively) and the loss of the TN stock (42.6% and 38.1% to V and OG, respectively). With respect to the soil quality, the effect was opposite; 46\,yr after LUC improved the soil quality, increasing the stratification ratio (in V and OG) of SOC, TN and C:N ratio.
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2012-11-14
    Description: Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 623-633, 2012 Author(s): F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, Y. He, J. Freer, and H. L. Cloke Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs) through regional climate models (RCMs) potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS) techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1) a simple direct method (DM), (2) quantile-quantile mapping (QM) and (3) a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts) project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2012-12-14
    Description: Application of soil quality indices to assess the status of agricultural soils irrigated with treated wastewaters Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 1485-1509, 2012 Author(s): A. Morugán-Coronado, V. Arcenegui, F. García-Orenes, J. Mataix-Solera, and J. Mataix-Beneyto The supply of water is limited in some parts of the Mediterranean region, such as southeastern Spain. The use of treated wastewater for the irrigation of agricultural soils is an alternative to using better-quality water, especially in semi-arid regions. On the other hand, this practice can modify some soil properties, change their relationships, the equilibrium reached and influence soil quality. In this work two soil quality indices were used to evaluate the effects of irrigation with treated wastewater in soils. The indices were developed studying different soil properties in undisturbed soils in SE Spain, and the relationships between soil parameters were established using multiple linear regressions. This study was carried out in three areas of Alicante Province (SE Spain) irrigated with wastewater, including four study sites. The results showed slight changes in some soil properties as a consequence of irrigation with wastewater, the obtained levels not being dangerous for agricultural soils, and in some cases they could be considered as positive from an agronomical point of view. In one of the study sites, and as a consequence of the low quality wastewater used, a relevant increase in soil organic matter content was observed, as well as modifications in most of the soil properties. The application of soil quality indices indicated that all the soils of study sites are in a state of disequilibrium regarding the relationships between properties independent of the type of water used. However, there were no relevant differences in the soil quality indices between soils irrigated with wastewater with respect to their control sites for all except one of the sites, which corresponds to the site where low quality wastewater was used.
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2012-12-15
    Description: Influence of a component of solar irradiance on radon signals at 1 km depth, Gran Sasso, Italy Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 1511-1544, 2012 Author(s): G. Steinitz, O. Piatibratova, and N. Charit-Yaari Exploratory monitoring of radon is conducted at one location at the deep underground Gran Sasso National Laboratory (LNGS). Measurements (15-min resolution) are performed over a time span of ca. 600 days in the air of the surrounding calcareous country rock. Utilizing both alpha and gamma-ray detectors systematic and recurring radon signals are recorded. Two primary signal types are determined: (a) non-periodic Multi-Day (MD) signals lasting 2–10 days, and (b) Daily Radon (DR) signals – which are of a periodic nature exhibiting a primary 24-h cycle. The local ancillary environmental conditions ( P , T ) seem not to affect radon in air monitored at the site. Long term patterns of day-time measurements are different from the pattern of night-time measurements indicating a day-night modulation of gamma radiation from radon in air. The phenomenology of the MD and DR signals is similar to situations encountered at other locations where radon is monitored with a high time resolution in geogas at upper crustal levels. In accordance with recent field and experimental results it is suggested that a components of solar irradiance is affecting the radiation from radon in air, and this influence is further modulated by the diurnal rotation of Earth. The occurrence of these radon signals in the 1 km deep low radiation underground geological environment of LNGS provides new information on the time variation of the local radiation environment. The observations and results place the LNGS facility as a high priority location for performing advanced investigations of these geophysical phenomena, due to its location and its infrastructure.
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2013-02-27
    Description: A typical wave wake from high-speed vessels: its group structure and run-up Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 179-188, 2013 Author(s): I. Didenkulova and A. Rodin High-amplitude water waves induced by high-speed vessels are regularly observed in Tallinn Bay, the Baltic Sea, causing intense beach erosion and disturbing marine habitants in the coastal zone. Such a strong impact on the coast may be a result of a certain group structure of the wave wake. In order to understand it, here we present an experimental study of the group structure of these wakes at Pikakari beach, Tallinn Bay. The most energetic vessel waves at this location (100 m from the coast at the water depth 2.7 m) have amplitudes of about 1 m and periods of 8–10 s and cause maximum run-up heights on a beach up to 1.4 m. These waves represent frequency modulated packets where the largest and longest waves propagate ahead of other smaller amplitude and period waves. Sometimes the groups of different heights and periods can be separated even within one wave wake event. The wave heights within a wake are well described by the Weibull distribution, which has different parameters for wakes from different vessels. Wave run-up heights can also be described by Weibull distribution and its parameters can be connected to the parameters of the distribution of wave heights 100 m from the coast. Finally, the run-up of individual waves within a packet is studied. It is shown that the specific structure of frequency modulated wave packets, induced by high-speed vessels, leads to a sequence of high wave run-ups at the coast, even when the original wave heights are rather moderate. This feature can be a key to understanding the significant impact on coasts caused by fast vessels.
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2012-10-11
    Description: Seismic imaging of sandbox experiments – laboratory hardware setup and first reflection seismic sections Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 1317-1344, 2012 Author(s): C. M. Krawczyk, M.-L. Buddensiek, O. Oncken, and N. Kukowski With the study and technical development introduced here, we combine analogue sandbox simulation techniques with seismic physical modelling of sandbox models. For that purpose, we designed and developed a new mini-seismic facility for laboratory use, comprising a seismic tank, a PC-driven control unit, a positioning system, and piezo-electric transducers used here the first time in an array mode. To assess the possibilities and limits of seismic imaging of small-scale structures in sandbox models, different geometry setups were tested in the first experiments that also tested the proper functioning of the device and studied the seismo-elastic properties of the granular media used. Simple two-layer models of different materials and layer thicknesses as well as a more complex model comprising channels and shear zones were tested using different acquisition geometries and signal properties. We suggest using well sorted and well rounded grains with little surface roughness (glass beads). Source receiver-offsets less than 14 cm for imaging structures as small as 2.0–1.5 mm size have proven feasible. This is the best compromise between wide beam and high energy output, and being applicable with a consistent waveform. Resolution of the interfaces of layers of granular materials depends on the interface preparation rather than on the material itself. Flat grading of interfaces and powder coverage yields the clearest interface reflections. Finally, sandbox seismic sections provide images of very good quality showing constant thickness layers as well as predefined channel structures and fault traces from shear zones. Since these can be regarded in sandbox models as zones of decompaction, they behave as reflectors and can be imaged. The multiple-offset surveying introduced here improves the quality with respect to S/N-ratio and source signature even more; the maximum depth penetration in glass bead layers thereby amounts to 5 cm. Thus, the presented mini-seismic device is already able to resolve structures within simple models of saturated porous media, so that multiple-offset seismic imaging of shallow sandbox models, that are structurally evolving, is generally feasible.
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2012-09-27
    Description: The link between great earthquakes and the subduction of oceanic fracture zones Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 1229-1280, 2012 Author(s): R. D. Müller and T. C. W. Landgrebe Giant subduction earthquakes are known to occur in areas not previously identified as prone to high seismic risk. This highlights the need to better identify subduction zone segments potentially dominated by relatively long (up to 1000 yr and more) recurrence times of giant earthquakes. We construct a model for the geometry of subduction coupling zones and combine it with global geophysical data sets to demonstrate that the occurrence of great (magnitude ≥ 8) subduction earthquakes is strongly biased towards regions associated with intersections of oceanic fracture zones and subduction zones. We use a computational recommendation technology, a type of information filtering system technique widely used in searching, sorting, classifying, and filtering very large, statistically skewed data sets on the internet, to demonstrate a robust association and rule out a random effect. Fracture zone-subduction zone intersection regions, representing only 25% of the global subduction coupling zone, are linked with 13 of the 15 largest (magnitude ( M w ≥ 8.6) and half of the 50 largest, magnitude ≥ 8.4) earthquakes. In contrast, subducting volcanic ridges and chains are only biased towards smaller earthquakes (magnitude 〈 8). The associations captured by our statistical analysis can be conceptually related to physical differences between subducting fracture zones and volcanic chains/ridges. Fracture zones are characterized by laterally continuous, uplifted ridges that represent normal ocean crust with a high degree of structural integrity, causing strong, persistent coupling in the subduction interface. Smaller volcanic ridges and chains, not have a relatively fragile heterogeneous internal structure and are separated from the underlying ocean crust by a detachment interface, resulting in weak coupling and relatively small earthquakes, explaining the observed dichotomy.
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2012-10-20
    Description: Fractal analysis of ULF electromagnetic emissions in possible association with earthquakes in China Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 577-583, 2012 Author(s): Y. Ida, D. Yang, Q. Li, H. Sun, and M. Hayakawa The long-term data (during the period of 1 March 2003 through 31 December 2006) of ULF geomagnetic variations observed at Kashi station (geographic coordinates: 39.5° N, 76.0° E) in China have been used to investigate the long-term variation of fractal dimension of ULF emissions. We have studied the changes in fractal dimension in association with several earthquakes around the observation station. It is then found that a significant change (or decrease) in the fractal dimension of the Z component took place before the 1 September 2003 earthquake, which lends a further support to our previous finding based on our improved polarization analysis for the same earthquake. The results obtained are discussed in the contexts of a few aspects (detectability of seismogenic emissions, comparison with previous results by other analysis methods, the importance of fractal analysis in the nonlinear process of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction).
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2012-04-11
    Description: Predictability of a low-order interactive ensemble Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 273-282, 2012 Author(s): L. Siqueira and B. Kirtman In this paper, numerical and analytical studies were performed to uncover the mechanisms controlling the changes in ensemble spread of a low-order coupled model with multiple atmospheric realizations. An interactive ensemble approach was applied to a coupled dynamical system based on two versions of the Lorenz 63 model designed in order to imitate the behavior of a coupled system with different time scales. In the dynamic system used in this work the spread of ensemble members is highly dependent on the mean state corresponding to asymmetries in predictability. The slowness of the slow model and the intensity of the boundary forcing anomalies both contribute to the asymmetry and phase locking of both subsystems. The mechanisms controlling the fast model spread were uncovered revealing uncertainty dynamics depending on the location of ensemble members in the fast model phase space and implicitly on the slowness and magnitude of the slow model anomalies.
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2013-02-15
    Description: Interaction of a monopole vortex with an isolated topographic feature in a three-layer geophysical flow Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 107-119, 2013 Author(s): E. A. Ryzhov and K. V. Koshel In the frame of a three-layer, quasi-geostrophic analytical model of an f -plane geophysical flow, the Lagrangian advection induced by the interaction of a monopole vortex with an isolated topographic feature is addressed. Two different cases when the monopole is located either within the upper or the middle layer are of our interest. In the bottom layer, there is a delta-function topographic feature, which generates a closed recirculation region in its vicinity due to the background flow. This recirculation region extends to the middle and upper layers, and it plays the role of a topographic vortex. The interaction between the monopole and the topographic vortex causes a complex, including chaotic, advection of fluid particles. We show that the model's parameters, namely the monopole and topographic vortices' strengths and initial positions, and the layers' depths and densities, are responsible for the diverse advection patterns. While the patterns are rather complicated, one can single out two major processes, which mostly govern the fluid particle advection. The first one is the variation in time of the system's phase space structure, so that within the closed region of the topographic vortex, there appear periodically unclosed particle pathways by which the particles leave the topographic vortex. The second one is chaotic advection that arises from the nonstationarity of the monopole–topography interaction.
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  • 52
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    Unknown
    Copernicus
    Publication Date: 2013-02-15
    Description: Energy of plate tectonics calculation and projection Solid Earth Discussions, 5, 135-161, 2013 Author(s): N. H. Swedan Mathematics and observations suggest that the energy of the geological activities resulting from plate tectonics is equal to the latent heat of melting, calculated at mantle's pressure, of the new ocean crust created at midocean ridges following sea floor spreading. This energy varies with the temperature of ocean floor, which is correlated with surface temperature. The objective of this manuscript is to calculate the force that drives plate tectonics, estimate the energy released, verify the calculations based on experiments and observations, and project the increase of geological activities with surface temperature rise caused by climate change.
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2013-02-07
    Description: Characterization of turbulence stability through the identification of multifractional Brownian motions Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 97-106, 2013 Author(s): K. C. Lee Multifractional Brownian motions have become popular as flexible models in describing real-life signals of high-frequency features in geoscience, microeconomics, and turbulence, to name a few. The time-changing Hurst exponent, which describes regularity levels depending on time measurements, and variance, which relates to an energy level, are two parameters that characterize multifractional Brownian motions. This research suggests a combined method of estimating the time-changing Hurst exponent and variance using the local variation of sampled paths of signals. The method consists of two phases: initially estimating global variance and then accurately estimating the time-changing Hurst exponent. A simulation study shows its performance in estimation of the parameters. The proposed method is applied to characterization of atmospheric stability in which descriptive statistics from the estimated time-changing Hurst exponent and variance classify stable atmosphere flows from unstable ones.
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2013-02-19
    Description: A tri-stage cluster identification model for accurate analysis of seismic catalogs Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 143-162, 2013 Author(s): S. J. Nanda, K. F. Tiampo, G. Panda, L. Mansinha, N. Cho, and A. Mignan In this paper we propose a tri-stage cluster identification model that is a combination of a simple single iteration distance algorithm and an iterative K-means algorithm. In this study of earthquake seismicity, the model considers event location, time and magnitude information from earthquake catalog data to efficiently classify events as either background or mainshock and aftershock sequences. Tests on a synthetic seismicity catalog demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed model in terms of accuracy percentage (94.81% for background and 89.46% for aftershocks). The close agreement between lambda and cumulative plots for the ideal synthetic catalog and that generated by the proposed model also supports the accuracy of the proposed technique. There is flexibility in the model design to allow for proper selection of location and magnitude ranges, depending upon the nature of the mainshocks present in the catalog. The effectiveness of the proposed model also is evaluated by the classification of events in three historic catalogs: California, Japan and Indonesia. As expected, for both synthetic and historic catalog analysis it is observed that the density of events classified as background is almost uniform throughout the region, whereas the density of aftershock events are higher near the mainshocks.
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2013-02-19
    Description: Scaling for lobe and cleft patterns in particle-laden gravity currents Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 121-130, 2013 Author(s): A. Jackson, B. Turnbull, and R. Munro Lobe and cleft patterns are frequently observed at the leading edge of gravity currents, including non-Boussinesq particle-laden currents such as powder snow avalanches. Despite the importance of the instability in driving air entrainment, little is known about its origin or the mechanisms behind its development. In this paper we seek to gain a better understanding of these mechanisms from a laboratory scale model of powder snow avalanches using lightweight granular material. The instability mechanisms in these flows appear to be a combination of those found in both homogeneous Boussinesq gravity currents and unsuspended granular flows, with the size of the granular particles playing a central role in determining the wavelength of the lobe and cleft pattern. When scaled by particle diameter a relationship between the Froude number and the wavelength of the lobe and cleft pattern is found, where the wavelength increases monotonically with the Froude number.
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2013-02-19
    Description: Inversion of the western Pacific subtropical high dynamic model and analysis of dynamic characteristics for its abnormality Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 131-142, 2013 Author(s): M. Hong, R. Zhang, J. X. Li, J. J. Ge, and K. F. Liu Based on time series data of 500 hPa potential field from NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Forecast of American/National Center for Atmospheric Research), a novel consideration of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) time–space separation and dynamic system reconstruction for time series is introduced. This method consists of two parts: first, the dynamical model inversion and model parameter optimization are carried out on the EOF time coefficient series using the genetic algorithm (GA), and, second, a nonlinear dynamic model representing the subtropical high (SH) activity and its abnormality is established. The SH activity and its abnormal mechanism is studied using the developed dynamical model. Results show that the configuration and diversification of the SH equilibriums have good correspondence with the actual short–medium term abnormal activity of the SH. Change of SH potential field brought by the combination of equilibriums is more complex than that by mutation, and their exhibition patterns are different. The mutation behavior from high-value to low-value equilibriums of the SH in summer corresponds with the southward drop of the SH in the observed weather process. The combination behavior of the two steady equilibriums corresponds with disappearance of the "double-ridge" phenomenon of the SH. Dynamical mechanisms of these phenomena are explained.
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2013-01-19
    Description: Wavefield decomposition and phase space dynamics of the seismic noise at Volcàn de Colima, Mexico: evidence of a two-state source process Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 71-84, 2013 Author(s): M. Palo and P. Cusano We analyse the seismic noise recorded at the Colima Volcano (Mexico) in the period December 2005–May 2006 by four broadband three-component seismic stations. Specifically, we characterize the spectral content of the signal and follow its time evolution along all the data set. Moreover, we infer the properties of the attractor in the phase space by false nearest neighbours analysis and Grassberger–Procaccia algorithm, and adopt a time-domain decomposition method (independent component analysis) to find the basic constituents (independent components) of the system. Constraints on the seismic wavefield are inferred by the polarization analysis. We find two states of the background seismicity visible in different time-intervals that are Phase A and Phase B. Phase A has a spectrum with two peaks at 0.15 Hz and 0.3 Hz, with the latter dominating, an attractor of correlation dimension close to 3, three quasi-monochromatic independent components, and a relevant fraction of crater-pointing polarization solutions in the near-field. In Phase B, the spectrum is preserved but with the highest peak at 0.15 Hz, the attractor has a correlation dimension close to 2, two independent components are extracted, and the polarization solutions are dominated by Rayleigh waves incoming from the southwest direction. We depict two sources acting on the background seismicity that are the microseismic noise loading on the Pacific coastline and a low-energy volcanic tremor. A change in the amplitude of the microseismic noise can induce the switching from a state of the system to the other.
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2012-08-24
    Description: Regional wave propagation using the discontinuous Galerkin method Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 1129-1164, 2012 Author(s): S. Wenk, C. Pelties, H. Igel, and M. Käser We present an application of the discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method to regional wave propagation. The method makes use of unstructured tetrahedral meshes, combined with a time integration scheme solving the arbitrary high-order derivative (ADER) Riemann problem. The ADER-DG method is high-order accurate in space and time, beneficial for reliable simulations of high-frequency wavefields over long propagation distances. Due to the ease with which tetrahedral grids can be adapted to complex geometries, undulating topography of the Earth's surface and interior interfaces can be readily implemented in the computational domain. The ADER-DG method is benchmarked for the accurate radiation of elastic waves excited by an explosive and a shear dislocation source. We compare real data measurements with synthetics of the 2009 L'Aquila event (central Italy). We take advantage of the geometrical flexibility of the approach to generate a European model composed of the 3-D EPcrust model, combined with the depth-dependent ak135 velocity model in the upper-mantle. The results confirm the applicability of the ADER-DG method for regional scale earthquake simulations, which provides an alternative to existing methodologies.
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2012-08-22
    Description: Review Article: "The Lagrangian description of aperiodic flows: a case study of the Kuroshio Current" Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 449-472, 2012 Author(s): C. Mendoza and A. M. Mancho This article reviews several recently developed Lagrangian tools and shows how their combined use succeeds in obtaining a detailed description of purely advective transport events in general aperiodic flows. In particular, because of the climate impact of ocean transport processes, we illustrate a 2-D application on altimeter data sets over the area of the Kuroshio Current, although the proposed techniques are general and applicable to arbitrary time dependent aperiodic flows. The first challenge for describing transport in aperiodical time dependent flows is obtaining a representation of the phase portrait where the most relevant dynamical features may be identified. areas that are related to confinement regions. This representation is accomplished by using global Lagrangian descriptors that when applied for instance to the altimeter data sets retrieve over the ocean surface a phase portrait where the geometry of interconnected dynamical systems is visible. The phase portrait picture is essential because it evinces which transport routes are acting on the whole flow. Once these routes are roughly recognised, it is possible to complete a detailed description by the direct computation of the finite time stable and unstable manifolds of special hyperbolic trajectories that act as organising centres of the flow.
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2012-08-22
    Description: Organic carbon stocks in Mediterranean soil types under different land uses (Southern Spain) Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 1095-1128, 2012 Author(s): M. Muñoz-Rojas, A. Jordán, L. M. Zavala, D. De la Rosa, S. K. Abd-Elmabod, and M. Anaya-Romero Soil C sequestration through changes in land use and management is one of the sustainable and long-term strategies to mitigate climate change. This research explores and quantifies the role of soil and land use as determinants of the ability of soils to store C along Mediterranean systems. Detailed studies of soil organic C (SOC) dynamics are necessary in order to identify factors determining fluctuations and intensity of changes. In this study, SOC contents from different soil and land use types have been investigated in Andalusia (S Spain). We have used soil information from different databases, as well as land use digital maps, climate databases and digital elevation models. The average SOC content for each soil control section (0–25, 25–50 and 50–75 cm) was determined and SOC stocks were calculated for each combination of soil and land use type, using soil and land cover maps. The total organic C stock in soils of Andalusia is 415 Tg for the upper 75 cm, with average values ranging from 15.9 Mg C ha −1 (Solonchaks under "arable land") to 107.6 Mg C ha −1 (Fluvisols from "wetlands"). Up to 55% of SOC accumulates in the top 25 cm of soil (229.7 Tg). This research constitutes a preliminary assessment for modelling SOC stock under scenarios of land use and climate change.
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2012-07-21
    Description: Dynamics of interplate domain in subduction zones: influence of rheological parameters and subducting plate age Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 943-992, 2012 Author(s): D. Arcay The properties of the subduction interplate domain are likely to affect not only the seismogenic potential of the subduction area but also the overall subduction process, as it influences its viability. Numerical simulations are performed to model the long-term equilibrium state of the subduction interplate when the diving lithosphere interacts with both the overriding plate and the surrounding convective mantle. The thermomechanical model combines a non-Newtonian viscous rheology and a pseudo-brittle rheology. Rock strength here depends on depth, temperature and stress, for both oceanic crust and mantle rocks. I study the evolution through time of, on one hand, the kinematic decoupling depth, z dec and, on the other hand, of the brittle-ductile transition (BDT) depth, z BDT , simulated along the subduction interplate. The results reveal that z BDT mainly depends on the friction coefficient characterising the interplate channel and on the viscosity at the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. The influence of the weak material activation energy is of second order but not negligible. z BDT becomes dependent on the ductile strength increase with depth (activation volume) if the BDT occurs at the interplate deocupling depth. Regarding the interplate decoupling depth, it is basically a function of (1) mantle viscosity at asthenospheric wedge tip, (2) difference in mantle and interplate activation anergy, and (3) activation volume. Specific conditions yielding z BDT = z dec are discussed. I then present how the subducting lithosphere age affects the brittle-ductile transition depth and the kinematic decoupling depth in this model. Simulations show that a rheological model in which the respective activation energies of mantle and interplate material are too close impedes strain localization during incipient subduction of a young (20 Myr old) and soft lithosphere under a thick upper plate. Finally, both the BDT depth and the decoupling depth are a function of the subducting plate age, but are not influenced in the same fashion: cool and old subducting plates deepen the BDT but shallow the interplate decoupling depth. Even if BDT and kinematic decoupling are instrinsically related to different mechanisms of deformation, this work shows that they are able to interact closely.
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2012-07-25
    Description: A critical discussion of the electromagnetic radiation (EMR) method to determine stress orientations within the crust Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 993-1024, 2012 Author(s): M. Krumbholz, M. Bock, S. Burchardt, U. Kelka, and A. Vollbrecht In recent years, the ElectroMagnetic Radiation (EMR) method has been used to detect faults and to determine main horizontal stress directions from variations in intensities and directional properties of electromagnetic emissions, which are assumed to be generated during micro-cracking. Based on a large data set taken from an area of about 250 000 km 2 in Northern Germany, Denmark, and Southern Sweden with repeated measurements at one location during a time span of about 1.5 yr, the method was systematically tested. Reproducible observations of temporary changes in the signal patterns, as well as a strongly concentric spatial pattern of the main directions of the magnetic component of the EMR point to VLF transmitters as the main source and hence raise serious concerns about the applicability of the method to determine recent crustal stresses. We conclude that the EMR method, at its current stage of development, does not allow determination of the main horizontal stress directions.
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2012-06-20
    Description: Cosmic rays and stochastic magnetic reconnection in the heliotail Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 351-364, 2012 Author(s): P. Desiati and A. Lazarian Galactic cosmic rays are believed to be generated by diffusive shock acceleration processes in Supernova Remnants, and the arrival direction is likely determined by the distribution of their sources throughout the Galaxy, in particular by the nearest and youngest ones. Transport to Earth through the interstellar medium is expected to affect the cosmic ray properties as well. However, the observed anisotropy of TeV cosmic rays and its energy dependence cannot be explained with diffusion models of particle propagation in the Galaxy. Within a distance of a few parsec, diffusion regime is not valid and particles with energy below about 100 TeV must be influenced by the heliosphere and its elongated tail. The observation of a highly significant localized excess region of cosmic rays from the apparent direction of the downstream interstellar flow at 1–10 TeV energies might provide the first experimental evidence that the heliotail can affect the transport of energetic particles. In particular, TeV cosmic rays propagating through the heliotail interact with the 100–300 AU wide magnetic field polarity domains generated by the 11 yr cycles. Since the strength of non-linear convective processes is expected to be larger than viscous damping, the plasma in the heliotail is turbulent. Where magnetic field domains converge on each other due to solar wind gradient, stochastic magnetic reconnection likely occurs. Such processes may be efficient enough to re-accelerate a fraction of TeV particles as long as scattering processes are not strong. Therefore, the fractional excess of TeV cosmic rays from the narrow region toward the heliotail direction traces sightlines with the lowest smearing scattering effects, that can also explain the observation of a harder than average energy spectrum.
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  • 64
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    Publication Date: 2012-06-20
    Description: Calibration of a radiocarbon age Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 345-350, 2012 Author(s): D. J. Keenan The calibration of a radiocarbon age to a calendar date is reviewed. It is shown that the commonly-used programs for calibration sometimes give results that are significantly in error.
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2012-07-20
    Description: Insight into collision zone dynamics from topography: numerical modelling results and observations Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 889-917, 2012 Author(s): A. D. Bottrill, J. van Hunen, and M. B. Allen Dynamic models of subduction and continental collision are used to predict dynamic topography changes on the overriding plate. The modelling results show a distinct evolution of topography on the overriding plate, during subduction, continental collision and slab break-off. A prominent topographic feature is a temporary (few Myrs) deepening in the area of the back arc-basin after initial collision. This collisional mantle dynamic basin (CMDB) is caused by slab steepening drawing material away from the base of the overriding plate. Also during this initial collision phase, surface uplift is predicted on the overriding plate between the suture zone and the CMDB, due to the subduction of buoyant continental material and its isostatic compensation. After slab detachment, redistribution of stresses and underplating of the overriding plate causes the uplift to spread further into the overriding plate. This topographic evolution fits the stratigraphy found on the overriding plate of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone in Iran and south east Turkey. The sedimentary record from the overriding plate contains Upper Oligocene-Lower Miocene marine carbonates deposited between terrestrial clastic sedimentary rocks, in units such as the Qom Formation and its lateral equivalents. This stratigraphy shows that during the Late Oligocene-Early Miocene the surface of the overriding plate sank below sea level before rising back above sea level, without major compressional deformation recorded in the same area. This uplift and subsidence pattern correlates well with our modelled topography changes.
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2012-07-20
    Description: Three-dimensional thermal structure of subduction zones: effects of obliquity and curvature Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 919-941, 2012 Author(s): A. K. Bengtson and P. E. van Keken Quantifying the precise thermal structure of subduction zones is essential for understanding the nature of metamorphic dehydration reactions, arc volcanism, and intermediate depth seismicity. High resolution two-dimensional (2-D) models have shown that the rheology of the mantle wedge plays a critical role and establishes strong temperature gradients in the slab. The influence of three-dimensional (3-D) subduction zone geometry on thermal structure is however not yet well characterized. A common assumption for 2-D models is that the cross-section is taken normal to the strike of the trench with a corresponding velocity reduction in the case of oblique subduction, rather than taken parallel to velocity. A comparison between a full 3-D Cartesian model with oblique subduction and selected 2-D cross-sections demonstrates that the trench-normal cross-section provides a better reproduction of the slab thermal structure than the velocity-parallel cross-section. An exception is found in the case of strongly curved subduction, such as in the Marianas, where strong 3-D flow in the mantle wedge is generated. In this case it is shown that the full 3-D model should be evaluated for an accurate prediction of the slab thermal structure.
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2012-07-24
    Description: Magnetic transfer function entropy and the 2009 M w = 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake (Central Italy) Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 401-409, 2012 Author(s): G. Cianchini, A. De Santis, D. R. Barraclough, L. X. Wu, and K. Qin With the aim of obtaining a deeper knowledge of the physical phenomena associated with the 2009 L'Aquila (Central Italy) seismic sequence, culminating with a M w = 6.3 earthquake on 6 April 2009, and possibly of identifying some kind of earthquake-related magnetic or geoelectric anomaly, we analyse the geomagnetic field components measured at the magnetic observatory of L'Aquila and their variations in time. In particular, trends of magnetic transfer functions in the years 2006–2010 are inspected. They are calculated from the horizontal to vertical magnetic component ratio in the frequency domain, and are very sensitive to deep and lateral geoelectric characteristics of the measurement site. Entropy analysis, carried out from the transfer functions with the so called transfer function entropy, points out clear temporal burst regimes of a few distinct harmonics preceding the main shock of the seismic sequence. A possible explanation is that they could be related to deep fluid migrations and/or to variations in the micro-/meso-fracturing that affected significantly the conductivity (ordered/disordered) distribution in a large lithospheric volume under the seismogenic layer below L'Aquila area. This interpretation is also supported by the analysis of hypocentres depths before the main shock occurrence.
    Print ISSN: 1023-5809
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2012-09-14
    Description: Haar wavelets, fluctuations and structure functions: convenient choices for geophysics Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 513-527, 2012 Author(s): S. Lovejoy and D. Schertzer Geophysical processes are typically variable over huge ranges of space-time scales. This has lead to the development of many techniques for decomposing series and fields into fluctuations Δ v at well-defined scales. Classically, one defines fluctuations as differences: (Δ v diff = v(x +Δ x )- v(x) and this is adequate for many applications (Δ x is the "lag"). However, if over a range one has scaling Δ v ∝ Δ x H , these difference fluctuations are only adequate when 0 〈 H 〈 1. Hence, there is the need for other types of fluctuations. In particular, atmospheric processes in the "macroweather" range ≈10 days to 10–30 yr generally have −1 〈 H 〈 0, so that a definition valid over the range −1 〈 H 〈 1 would be very useful for atmospheric applications. A general framework for defining fluctuations is wavelets. However, the generality of wavelets often leads to fairly arbitrary choices of "mother wavelet" and the resulting wavelet coefficients may be difficult to interpret. In this paper we argue that a good choice is provided by the (historically) first wavelet, the Haar wavelet (Haar, 1910), which is easy to interpret and – if needed – to generalize, yet has rarely been used in geophysics. It is also easy to implement numerically: the Haar fluctuation (Δ v Haar at lag Δ x is simply equal to the difference of the mean from x to x + Δ x /2 and from x +Δ x /2 to x +Δ x . Indeed, we shall see that the interest of the Haar wavelet is this relation to the integrated process rather than its wavelet nature per se. Using numerical multifractal simulations, we show that it is quite accurate, and we compare and contrast it with another similar technique, detrended fluctuation analysis. We find that, for estimating scaling exponents, the two methods are very similar, yet Haar-based methods have the advantage of being numerically faster, theoretically simpler and physically easier to interpret.
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2012-06-15
    Description: An experimental study of the Atlantic variability on interdecadal timescales Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 335-343, 2012 Author(s): M. Vincze, I. M. Jánosi, E. Barsy, T. Tél, and A. Várai A series of laboratory experiments has been carried out to model the basic dynamics of the multidecadal variability observed in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) records. According to the minimal numerical sector model introduced by te Raa and Dijkstra (2002), the three key components to excite such a low-frequency variability are rotation, meridional temperature gradient and additive thermal noise in the surface heat forcing. If these components are present, periodic perturbations of the overturning background flow are excited, leading to thermal Rossby mode like propagation of anomalous patches in the SST field. Our tabletop scale setup was built to capture this phenomenon, and to test whether the aforementioned three components are indeed sufficient to generate a low-frequency variability in the system. The results are compared to those of the numerical models, as well as to oceanic SST reanalysis records. To the best of our knowledge, the experiment described here is the very first to investigate the dynamics of the North Atlantic multidecadal variability in a laboratory-scale setup.
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  • 70
    Publication Date: 2012-07-07
    Description: Subduction to the lower mantle – a comparison between geodynamic and tomographic models Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 851-887, 2012 Author(s): B. Steinberger, T. H. Torsvik, and T. W. Becker It is generally believed that subduction of lithospheric slabs is a major contribution to thermal heterogeneity in Earth's entire mantle and provides a main driving force for mantle flow. Mantle structure can, on the one hand, be inferred from plate tectonic models of subduction history and geodynamic models of mantle flow. On the other hand, seismic tomography models provide important information on mantle heterogeneity. Yet, the two kinds of models are only similar on the largest (1000s of km) scales and are quite different in their detailed structure. Here, we provide a quantitative assessment how good a fit can be currently achieved with a simple viscous flow geodynamic model. The discrepancy between geodynamic and tomography models can indicate where further model refinement could possibly yield an improved fit. Our geodynamical model is based on 300 Myr of subduction history inferred from a global plate reconstruction. Density anomalies are inserted into the upper mantle beneath subduction zones, and flow and advection of these anomalies is calculated with a spherical harmonic code for a radial viscosity structure constrained by mineral physics and surface observations. Model viscosities in the upper mantle beneath the lithosphere are ~10 20 Pas, and viscosity increases to ~10 23 Pas in the lower mantle above D". Comparison with tomography models is assessed in terms of correlation, both overall and as a function of depth and spherical harmonic degree. We find that, compared to previous geodynamic and tomography models, correlation is improved significantly, presumably because of improvements in both plate reconstructions and mantle flow computation. However, high correlation is still limited to lowest spherical harmonic degrees. An important ingredient to achieve high correlation – in particular at spherical harmonic degree two – is a basal chemical layer. Subduction shapes this layer into two rather stable hot but chemically dense "piles", corresponding to the Pacific and African Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces. Visual comparison along cross sections indicates that sinking speeds in the geodynamic model are somewhat too fast, and should be 2±0.8 cm yr −1 to achieve a better fit.
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2012-07-06
    Description: Segmentation of the Izu-Bonin and Mariana plates based on the analysis of the Benioff seismicity distribution and regional tomography results Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 823-850, 2012 Author(s): K. Jaxybulatov, I. Koulakov, and N. L. Dobretsov We present a new model of P- and S-velocity anomalies in the mantle down to 1300 km depth beneath the Izu-Bonin and Mariana (IBM) arcs. This model is derived based on tomographic inversion of global travel time data from the revised ISC catalogue. The results of inversion are thoroughly verified using a series of different tests. The obtained model is generally consistent with previous studies of different authors. We also present the distribution of relocated deep events projected to the vertical surface along the IBM arc. Unexpectedly, the seismicity form elongated vertical clusters instead of horizontal zones indicating phase transitions in the slab. We propose that these vertical seismicity zones mark zones of intense deformation and boundaries between semi-autonomous segments of the subducting plate. The P- and S-seismic tomography models consistently display the slab as prominent high-velocity anomalies coinciding with the distribution of deep seismicity. Based on joint consideration of the tomography results and the seismicity distribution we propose a scenario of the subduction evolution in the IBM zone during the recent time. We can distinguish at least four segments which subduct differently. The northernmost segment of the Izu-Bonin arc has the gentlest angle of dipping which is explained by backward displacement of the trench. In the second segment, the trench stayed at the same location, and we observe the accumulation of the slab material in the transition zone and its further descending to the lower mantle. In third segment, the trench is moving forward that causes steepening of the slab. Finally, for the Mariana segment, despite the backward displacement of the arc, the subducting slab is nearly vertical. We propose that it might be due to the high density of the slab which is responsible for turning any inclined subduction to the vertical position. Between the Izu-Bonin and Mariana arcs we clearly observe a gap which is traced down to about 400 km depth.
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2012-07-03
    Description: Triplicated P-wave measurements for waveform tomography of the mantle transition zone Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 783-821, 2012 Author(s): S. C. Stähler, K. Sigloch, and T. Nissen-Meyer Triplicated body waves sample the mantle transition zone more extensively than any other wave type, and interact strongly with the discontinuities at 410 km and 660 km. Since the seismograms bear a strong imprint of these geodynamically interesting features, it is highly desirable to invert them for structure of the transition zone. This has rarely been attemped, due to the mismatch between the complex and bandlimited data and the (ray-theoretical) modeling methods. Here we present a data processing and modeling strategy to harness such broadband seismograms for finite-frequency tomography. We include triplicated P-waves (epicentral distance range between 14 and 30°) across their entire broadband frequency range, for both deep and shallow sources. We show that it is possible to predict the complex sequence of arrivals in these seismograms, but only after a careful effort to estimate source time functions and other source parameters from data, variables that strongly influence the waveforms. Modeled and observed waveforms then yield decent cross-correlation fits, from which we measure finite-frequency traveltime anomalies. We discuss two such data sets, for North America and Europe, and conclude that their signal quality and azimuthal coverage should be adequate for tomographic inversion. In order to compute sensitivity kernels at the pertinent high body-wave frequencies, we use fully numerical forward modelling of the seismic wavefield through a spherically symmetric earth.
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2012-06-19
    Description: Using open sidewalls for modelling self-consistent lithosphere subduction dynamics Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 707-744, 2012 Author(s): M. Chertova, T. Geenen, A. van den Berg, and W. Spakman Subduction modelling in regional model domains, in 2-D or 3-D, is commonly done using closed, vertical boundaries. In this paper we investigate the merits of using open boundaries for 2-D modelling of lithosphere subduction but with implication for 3-D modelling. Open sidewalls allow for lateral in- and outflow consistent with the internal dynamics of the model and may simulate the real-mantle environment of subduction much better than closed boundaries, which induce return flows. Our experiments are focused on using open and closed (free-slip) sidewalls while comparing results for two model aspect ratios of 3:1 and 6:1. Slab buoyancy driven subduction with open boundaries immediately develops into strong rollback with high trench retreat velocities. Mantle asthenosphere flow forced by rollback is predominantly laminar and facilitated by the open boundaries. In contrast, free-slip sidewalls proof restrictive on subduction rollback evolution unless the lithosphere plates are allowed to move away from the sidewalls. This, however, initiates return flows pushing both plates toward the subduction zone speeding up subduction. Increasing the aspect ratio to 6:1 does not change the overall flow pattern when using open sidewalls. Again, in contrast, for free-slip boundaries, the slab evolution does change with respect to the 3:1 aspect ratio and does not resemble the 6:1 evolution obtained with open boundaries. We notice a general drop in the amplitude of mantle flow when changing to the 6:1 aspect ratio, which is caused by the increasing shear friction between mantle and lithosphere while the driving slab buoyancy is the same. Based on energy-dissipation arguments we applied a flow speed scaling to convert between flow fields of different model aspect ratios. This proved succesful for the open boundary model. We have also investigated the effect of far-field stress conditions in our open boundary models. Applying realistic normal stress conditions to the strong part of the overriding plate we show that "intra-plate" stresses control subduction dynamics resulting in slab roll-back, stationary or advancing subduction. We conclude that open boundaries are to be preferred for modelling subduction evolution (rollback, stationary or advancing). The relative independence of model aspect ratio avoids the need to place sidewalls at large distance and allows to focus all computational resources on a smaller modelling domain. Open boundaries simulate the natural subduction environment better and avoid the adverse effects (e.g. forced return flows) of free-slip boundaries.
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2012-06-20
    Description: Implicit particle filtering for models with partial noise, and an application to geomagnetic data assimilation Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 365-382, 2012 Author(s): M. Morzfeld and A. J. Chorin Implicit particle filtering is a sequential Monte Carlo method for data assimilation, designed to keep the number of particles manageable by focussing attention on regions of large probability. These regions are found by minimizing, for each particle, a scalar function F of the state variables. Some previous implementations of the implicit filter rely on finding the Hessians of these functions. The calculation of the Hessians can be cumbersome if the state dimension is large or if the underlying physics are such that derivatives of F are difficult to calculate, as happens in many geophysical applications, in particular in models with partial noise, i.e. with a singular state covariance matrix. Examples of models with partial noise include models where uncertain dynamic equations are supplemented by conservation laws with zero uncertainty, or with higher order (in time) stochastic partial differential equations (PDE) or with PDEs driven by spatially smooth noise processes. We make the implicit particle filter applicable to such situations by combining gradient descent minimization with random maps and show that the filter is efficient, accurate and reliable because it operates in a subspace of the state space. As an example, we consider a system of nonlinear stochastic PDEs that is of importance in geomagnetic data assimilation.
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2012-06-29
    Description: Up the down escalator: the exhumation of (ultra)-high pressure terranes during on-going subduction Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 745-781, 2012 Author(s): C. J. Warren The exhumation of high and ultra-high pressure rocks is ubiquitous in Phanerozoic orogens created during continental collisions, and is common in many ocean-ocean and ocean-continent subduction zone environments. Three different tectonic environments have previously been reported, which exhume deeply buried material by different mechanisms and at different rates. However it is becoming increasingly clear that no single mechanism dominates in any particular tectonic environment, and the mechanism may change in time and space within the same subduction zone. In order for buoyant continental crust to subduct, it must remain attached to a stronger and denser substrate, but in order to exhume, it must detach (and therefore at least locally weaken) and be initially buoyant. Denser oceanic crust subducts more readily than more buoyant continental crust but exhumation must be assisted by entrainment within more buoyant and weak material such as serpentinite or driven by the exhumation of structurally lower continental crustal material. Weakening mechanisms responsible for the detachment of crust at depth include strain, hydration, melting, grain size reduction and the development of foliation. These may act locally or may act on the bulk of the subducted material. Metamorphic reactions, metastability and the composition of the subducted crust all affect buoyancy and overall strength. Subduction zones change in style both in time and space, and exhumation mechanisms change to reflect the tectonic style and overall force regime within the subduction zone. Exhumation events may be transient and occur only once in a particular subduction zone or orogen, or may be more continuous or occur multiple times.
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2012-06-08
    Description: Influence of a single lightning on the intensity of an air electric field and acoustic emission of near surface rocks Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 627-640, 2012 Author(s): S. E. Smirnov and Y. V. Marapulets The effect of a single lightning discharge on electric field intensity in the near ground atmosphere was investigated. The effect appeared as a sharp fall of electric field potential gradient from 80 V m −1 up to −21 V m −1 . The process of intensity recovery is described by flat capacitor model with characteristic time of recovery of 17 c. Simultaneously with electric field, the acoustic emission response in the near surface rocks on lightning discharge was registered in the frequency range of 6.5–11 kHz.
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2012-06-08
    Description: Nature of orogenesis and volcanism in the Caucasus region based on results of regional tomography Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 641-662, 2012 Author(s): I. Koulakov, I. Zabelina, I. Amanatashvili, and V. Meskhia In the paper we discuss the problem of continental collision and related volcanism in the Caucasus and surrounding areas based on analysis of the upper mantle seismic structure in a recently derived model by Koulakov (2011). This model, which includes P- and S-velocity anomalies down to 1000 km depth, was obtained from tomographic inversion of worldwide travel time data from the catalogue of the International Seismological Center. It can be seen that the Caucasus region is squeezed between two continental plates, Arabian to the south and European to the north, which are displayed in the tomographic model as high-velocity bodies down to about 200–250 km depth. On the contrary, a very bright low-velocity anomaly beneath the collision area implies that the lithosphere in this zone is very thin, which is also supported by strong deformations indicating weak properties of the lithosphere. In the contact between stable continental and collision zones we observe a rather complex alternation of seismic anomalies having the shapes of sinking drops. We propose that the convergence process causes crustal thickening and transformation of the lower crust material into the dense eclogite. When achieving a critical mass, the dense eclogitic drops trigger detachment of the mantle lithosphere and its delamination. The observed high-velocity bodies in the upper mantle may indicate the parts of the descending mantle lithosphere which were detached from the edges of the continental lithosphere plates. Very thin or even absent mantle part of the lithosphere leads to the presence of hot asthenosphere just below the crust. The crustal shortening and eclogitization of the lower crustal layer leads to the dominantly felsic composition of the crust which is favorable for the upward heat transport from the mantle. This, and also the factor of frictional heating, may cause to the origin of volcanic centers in the Caucasus and surrounding collisional areas.
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2012-06-09
    Description: Application of titanium-in-quartz thermobarometry to greenschist facies veins and recrystallized quartzites in the Hsüehshan range, Taiwan Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 663-706, 2012 Author(s): S. Kidder, J.-P. Avouac, and Y.-C. Chan The accuracy, reliability and best practices of Ti-in-quartz thermobarometry ("TitaniQ") in greenschist facies rocks have not been established. To address these issues we measured Ti concentrations in rutile-bearing samples of moderately deformed, partially recrystallized quartzite and vein quartz from Taiwan's Hsüehshan range. The spread of Ti concentrations of recrystallized grains in quartzite correlates with recrystallized grain size. Recrystallized quartz (grain size ~300 μm) that formed during early deformation within the biotite stability field shows a marked increase in intermediate Ti-concentration grains (~1–10 ppm) relative to detrital porphyroclasts (Ti ~0.1–200 ppm). Fine recrystallized quartz (~5% of the samples by area, grain size ~10–20 μm) has a further restricted Ti concentration peaking at 0.8–2 ppm. This trend suggests equilibration of Ti in recrystallized quartz with a matrix phase during deformation and cooling. Vein emplacement and quartzite recrystallization are independently shown to have occurred at 250–350 °C and 300–410 °C respectively, lithostatic pressure ~5 kbar, and hydrostatic fluid pressure. Estimates of the accuracy of TitaniQ at these conditions depend on whether lithostatic or fluid pressure is used in the TitaniQ calibration. Using lithostatic pressure, Ti concentrations predicted by the Thomas et al. (2010) TitaniQ calibration are within error of Ti concentrations measured by SIMS. If fluid pressure is used, predicted temperatures are ~30–40 °C too low. TitaniQ has potential to yield accurate PT information for vein emplacement and dynamic recrystallization of quartz at temperatures as low as ~250 °C, however clarification of the relevant pressure term and further tests in rutile-present rocks are warranted.
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 2012-06-05
    Description: Heat-flow and subsurface temperature history at the site of Saraya (eastern Senegal) Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 599-626, 2012 Author(s): F. Lucazeau and F. Rolandone New temperature measurements from eight boreholes in the West African Craton (WAC) reveal superficial perturbations down to 100 meters below the alteration zone. These perturbations are both related to a recent increase of the surface air temperature (SAT) and to the site effects caused by fluids circulations and/or the lower conduction in the alterites. The ground surface temperature (GST) inverted from the boreholes temperatures is stable in the past (1700–1940) and then dramatically increases in the most recent years (1.5 °C since 1950). This is consistent with the increase of the SAT recorded at two nearby meteorological stations (Tambacounda and Kedougou), and more generally in the Sahel with a coeval rainfall decrease. Site effects are superimposed to the climatic effect and interpreted by advective (circulation of fluids) or conductive (lower conductivity of laterite and of high-porosity sand) perturbations. We used a 1-D finite differences thermal model and a Monte-Carlo procedure to find the best estimates of these sites perturbations: all the eight boreholes temperatures logs can be interpreted with the same basal heat-flow and the same surface temperature history, but with some realistic changes of thermal conductivity and/or fluid velocity. The GST trend observed in Senegal can be confirmed by two previous boreholes measurements made in 1983 in other locations of West Africa, the first one in an arid zone of northern Mali and the second one in a subhumid zone in southern Mali. Finally, the background heat-flow is low (30 ± 1 m Wm −2 ), which makes this part of the WAC more similar with the observations in the southern part (33 ± 8 m Wm −2 ) rather than with those in the northern part and in the PanAfrican domains where the surface heat-flow is 15–20 m Wm −2 higher.
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2012-04-17
    Description: Grid preparation for magnetic and gravity data using fractal fields Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 291-296, 2012 Author(s): M. Pilkington and P. Keating Most interpretive methods for potential field (magnetic and gravity) measurements require data in a gridded format. Many are also based on using fast Fourier transforms to improve their computational efficiency. As such, grids need to be full (no undefined values), rectangular and periodic. Since potential field surveys do not usually provide data sets in this form, grids must first be prepared to satisfy these three requirements before any interpretive method can be used. Here, we use a method for grid preparation based on a fractal model for predicting field values where necessary. Using fractal field values ensures that the statistical and spectral character of the measured data is preserved, and that unwanted discontinuities at survey boundaries are minimized. The fractal method compares well with standard extrapolation methods using gridding and maximum entropy filtering. The procedure is demonstrated on a portion of a recently flown aeromagnetic survey over a volcanic terrane in southern British Columbia, Canada.
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2012-04-17
    Description: Identification of uranium targets based on airborne radiometric data analysis by using multifractal modeling, Tark and Avanligh 1:50 000 sheets, NW Iran Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 283-289, 2012 Author(s): P. Afzal, A. Zia Zarifi, and A. Bijan Yasrebi Airborne geophysical anomaly separation using conventional statistics and the fractal/multifractal concentration-area (C-A) method has been applied to the Tark and Avanligh 1:50 000 sheets in NW Iran. The geophysical survey that resulted in the airborne geophysical data was conducted for uranium exploration in both areas. Selected anomalies were further investigated by using surface radiometric data. Firstly, threshold values to define anomalies were determined and compared by means of conventional statistical methods. Several relatively large anomalies were identified with uranium (U) equal to 1.7 eppm and 1.9 eppm in the Tark and Avanligh areas, respectively; locally these U anomalies have magnitudes exceeding 3.5 eppm in both areas. Log-log plots obtained for the C-A method indicate existence of two separate stages of U enrichment, with a major event being the cause of U concentration values above 6.1 and 3.4 eppm in the Tark and Avanligh areas, respectively. These higher intensity anomalies are located in the northwestern part of the Tark and in the southern part of the Avanligh sheets. In both areas, the C-A anomalies were further investigated using ground radiometric data and XRF analysis revealing higher than 150 and 280 ppm U concentration values in the two areas, respectively. Correlation between the anomalies and geological units show that the anomalies are associated with limestone and sandstone units.
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2012-04-19
    Description: Reconnection studies under different types of turbulence driving Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 297-314, 2012 Author(s): G. Kowal, A. Lazarian, E. T. Vishniac, and K. Otmianowska-Mazur We study a model of fast magnetic reconnection in the presence of weak turbulence proposed by Lazarian and Vishniac (1999) using three-dimensional direct numerical simulations. The model has been already successfully tested in Kowal et al. (2009) confirming the dependencies of the reconnection speed V rec on the turbulence injection power P inj and the injection scale l inj expressed by a constraint V rec ~ P inj 1/2 l inj 3/4 and no observed dependency on Ohmic resistivity. In Kowal et al. (2009), in order to drive turbulence, we injected velocity fluctuations in Fourier space with frequencies concentrated around k inj = 1/ l inj , as described in Alvelius (1999). In this paper, we extend our previous studies by comparing fast magnetic reconnection under different mechanisms of turbulence injection by introducing a new way of turbulence driving. The new method injects velocity or magnetic eddies with a specified amplitude and scale in random locations directly in real space. We provide exact relations between the eddy parameters and turbulent power and injection scale. We performed simulations with new forcing in order to study turbulent power and injection scale dependencies. The results show no discrepancy between models with two different methods of turbulence driving exposing the same scalings in both cases. This is in agreement with the Lazarian and Vishniac (1999) predictions. In addition, we performed a series of models with varying viscosity ν . Although Lazarian and Vishniac (1999) do not provide any prediction for this dependence, we report a weak relation between the reconnection speed with viscosity, V rec ~ ν −1/4 .
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2012-05-09
    Description: Oscillating forcings and new regimes in the Lorenz system: a four-lobe attractor Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 315-322, 2012 Author(s): V. Pelino, F. Maimone, and A. Pasini It has been shown that forced Lorenz models generally maintain their two-lobe structure, just giving rise to changes in the occurrence of their regimes. Here, using the richness of a unified formalism for Kolmogorov-Lorenz systems, we show that introducing oscillating forcings can lead to the birth of new regimes and to a four-lobe attractor. Analogies within a climate dynamics framework are mentioned.
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2012-05-11
    Description: A 2-D FEM thermal model to simulate water flow in a porous media: Campi Flegrei caldera case study Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 323-333, 2012 Author(s): V. Romano, U. Tammaro, and P. Capuano Volcanic and geothermal aspects both exist in many geologically young areas. In these areas the heat transfer process is of fundamental importance, so that the thermal and fluid-dynamic processes characterizing a viscous fluid in a porous medium are very important to understand the complex dynamics of the these areas. The Campi Flegrei caldera, located west of the city of Naples, within the central-southern sector of the large graben of Campanian plain, is a region where both volcanic and geothermal phenomena are present. The upper part of the geothermal system can be considered roughly as a succession of volcanic porous material (tuff) saturated by a mixture formed mainly by water and carbon dioxide. We have implemented a finite elements approach in transient conditions to simulate water flow in a 2-D porous medium to model the changes of temperature in the geothermal system due to magmatic fluid inflow, accounting for a transient phase, not considered in the analytical solutions and fluid compressibility. The thermal model is described by means of conductive/convective equations, in which we propose a thermal source represented by a parabolic shape function to better simulate an increase of temperature in the central part (magma chamber) of a box, simulating the Campi Flegrei caldera and using more recent evaluations, from literature, for the medium's parameters (specific heat capacity, density, thermal conductivity, permeability). A best-fit velocity for the permeant is evaluated by comparing the simulated temperatures with those measured in wells drilled by Agip (Italian Oil Agency) in the 1980s in the framework of geothermal exploration. A few tens of days are enough to reach the thermal steady state, showing the quick response of the system to heat injection. The increase in the pressure due to the heat transport is then used to compute ground deformation, in particular the vertical displacements characteristics of the Campi Flegrei caldera behaviour. The vertical displacements range from 1 cm to 10 cm in accordance with the mini uplift, characterizing the recent behaviour of the caldera. The time needed to move fluid particles from the bottom to the upper layer (years) is compatible with the timing of the mini uplift.
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2012-05-09
    Description: Seismicity at the Rwenzori Mountains, East African Rift: earthquake distribution, magnitudes and source mechanisms Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 565-598, 2012 Author(s): M. Lindenfeld, G. Rümpker, A. Batte, and A. Schumann We have analysed the microseismic activity within the Rwenzori Mountains area in the western branch of the East African Rift. Seismogram recordings from a temporary array of up to 27 stations reveal approximately 800 events per month with local magnitudes ranging from –0.5 to 5.1. The earthquake distribution is highly heterogeneous. The majority of located events lie within faults zones to the East and West of the Rwenzoris with the highest seismic activity observed in the northeastern area, where the mountains are in contact with the rift shoulders. The hypocentral depth distribution exhibits a pronounced peak of seismic energy release at 15 km depth. The maximum extent of seismicity ranges from 20 to 32 km and correlates well with Moho depths that were derived from teleseismic receiver functions. We observe two general features: (i) beneath the rift shoulders seismicity extends from the surface down to ca. 30 km depth; (ii) beneath the rift valley seismicity is confined to depths greater than 10 km. From the observations there is no indication for a crustal root beneath the Rwenzori Mountains. The magnitude frequency distribution reveals a b-value of 1.1, which is consistent with the hypothesis that part of the seismicity is caused by magmatic processes within the crust. Fault plane solutions of 304 events were derived from P-polarities and SV/P amplitude ratios. More than 70 % of the source mechanisms exhibit pure or predominantly normal faulting. T-axis trends are highly uniform and oriented WNW-ESE, which is perpendicular to the rift axis and in good agreement with kinematic rift models. At the northernmost part of the region we observe a rotation of the T-axis trends to NEN-SWS, which may be indicative of a local perturbation of the regional stress field.
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2011-11-18
    Description: The effect of a localized geothermal heat source on deep water formation Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 841-847, 2011 Author(s): M. Vincze, A. Várai, E. Barsy, and I. M. Jánosi In a simplified two-dimensional model of a buoyancy-driven overturning circulation, we numerically study the response of the flow to a small localized heat source at the bottom. The flow is driven by differential thermal forcing applied along the top surface boundary. We evaluate the steady state solutions versus the temperature difference between the two ends of the water surface in terms of different characteristic parameters that properly describe the transition from a weak upper-layer convection state to a robust full-depth deep convection. We conclude that a small additional bottom heat flux underneath the "cold" end of the basin is able to initiate full-depth convection even when the surface heat forcing alone is not sufficient to maintain this state.
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2011-11-23
    Description: External forcing of earthquake swarms at Alpine regions: \newline example from a seismic meteorological network at Mt. Hochstaufen SE-Bavaria Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 849-860, 2011 Author(s): V. Svejdar, H. Küchenhoff, L. Fahrmeir, and J. Wassermann In the last few years, it has been shown that above-average rainfall and the following diffusion of excess water into subsurface structures is able to trigger earthquake swarms in the uppermost brittle portion of the Earth's crust. However, there is still an ongoing debate on whether the crust already needs to be in a critical-to-failure state or whether it is sufficient that water is transported rapidly within channels and veins of karst or similar geological formations to the underlying, earthquake-generating layers. Also unknown is the role of other forcing mechanisms, possible co-variables and probably necessary tectonic loading in the triggering process of earthquakes. Because of these problems, we do not use an explicit physical model but instead analyze the meteorological and geophysical data via sophisticated statistical models. \newline We are interested in the influence of a more complete set of possible forcing parameters, including the influence of synthetic earth tides, on the occurrence of earthquake swarms. In this context, regression models are the adequate tool, since the calculation of simple correlations can be confounded by the other variables. Since our outcome variable (the number of quakes) is a count, we use Poisson regression models that include the plausible assumption of a Poisson distribution for the counts. For this study, we use nearly continuous recordings of a seismic and meteorological network in the years 2002–2008 at Mt. Hochstaufen in SE-Bavaria. Our non-linear regression model reveals correlations between external forces and the triggering of earthquakes. In addition to the still dominant influence of rainfall, theoretical estimated tidal tilt show some weak influence on the swarm generation. However, the influence of the modeled trend functions shows that rain is by far not the most important forcing mechanism present in the data.
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2011-11-30
    Description: Nonlinearly combined impacts of initial perturbation from human activities and parameter perturbation from climate change on the grassland ecosystem Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 883-893, 2011 Author(s): G. Sun and M. Mu Human activities and climate change are important factors that affect grassland ecosystems. A new optimization approach, the approach of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) related to initial and parameter perturbations, is employed to explore the nonlinearly combined impacts of human activities and climate change on a grassland ecosystem using a theoretical grassland model. In our study, it is assumed that the initial perturbations and parameter perturbations are regarded as human activities and climate change, respectively. Numerical results indicate that the climate changes causing the maximum effect in the grassland ecosystem are different under disparate intensities of human activities. This implies the pattern of climate change is very critical to the maintenance or degradation of grassland ecosystem in light of high intensity of human activities and that the grassland ecosystem should be rationally managed when the moisture index decreases. The grassland ecosystem influenced by the nonlinear combination of human activities and climate change undergoes abrupt change, while the grassland ecosystem affected by other types of human activities and climate change fails to show the abrupt change under a certain range of perturbations with the theoretical model. The further numerical analyses also indicate that the growth of living biomass and the evaporation from soil surface shaded by the wilted biomass may be crucial factors contributing to the abrupt change of the grassland equilibrium state within the theoretical model.
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2011-12-01
    Description: Preface "Nonlinear and scaling processes in Hydrology and Soil Science" Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 899-902, 2011 Author(s): A. M. Tarquis, J. L. M. P. de Lima, W. F. Krajewski, Q. Cheng, and H. Gaonac'h No abstract available.
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 2011-11-25
    Description: Magnetic reconnection associated fluctuations in the deep magnetotail: ARTEMIS results Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 861-869, 2011 Author(s): Z. Vörös On the basis of ARTEMIS two-probe mission magnetic reconnection (MR) outflow associated magnetic fluctuations and turbulence are analyzed on 19 February 2011. In the deep-tail, at distances between X = 45 – 51 R E , evidence for reconnection associated plasma sheet thinning was found, accompanied by heating of the plasma sheet. Correlated flow and field reversals and the large-scale Hall-effect signatures indicated the presence of the reconnection X -line. Within fast reconnection plasma outflows, magnetic fluctuations exhibit the same spectral scaling features and kinked spectra as magnetic fluctuations in the solar wind or in various parts of geospace. It was shown that the proton scale magnetic fluctuations are constrained by oblique firehose, proton cyclotron and mirror instability thresholds. For parallel plasma β || 〉 1, where the thresholds converge, perpendicular magnetic fluctuations are enhanced. Magnetic compressibility decreases with the distance to the neutral sheet, however, near the instability thresholds it is comparable to the values obtained in the solar wind.
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2011-12-01
    Description: Preface "Extreme Events: Nonlinear Dynamics and Time Series Analysis" Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 895-897, 2011 Author(s): P. Yiou, B. D. Malamud, and H. W. Rust No abstract available.
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2011-12-02
    Description: Floating sandstones off El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain): the peculiar case of the October 2011 eruption Solid Earth Discussions, 3, 975-999, 2011 Author(s): V. R. Troll, A. Klügel, M.-A. Longpré, S. Burchardt, F. M. Deegan, J. C. Carracedo, S. Wiesmaier, U. Kueppers, B. Dahren, L. S. Blythe, T. Hansteen, C. Freda, D. A. Budd, E. M. Jolis, E. Jonsson, F. Meade, S. Berg, L. Mancini, and M. Polacci The eruption that started off the south coast of El Hierro, Canary Islands, in October 2011 has emitted intriguing eruption products found floating in the sea. These specimens appeared as floating volcanic "bombs" that have in the meantime been termed "restingolites" (after the close-by village of La Restinga) and exhibit cores of white and porous pumice-like material. Currently the nature and origin of these "floating stones" is vigorously debated among researchers, with important implications for the interpretation of the hazard potential of the ongoing eruption. The "restingolites" have been proposed to be either (i) juvenile high-silica magma (e.g. rhyolite), (ii) remelted magmatic material (trachyte), (iii) altered volcanic rock, or (iv) reheated hyaloclastites or zeolite from the submarine slopes of El Hierro. Here, we provide evidence that supports yet a different conclusion. We have collected and analysed the structure and composition of samples and compared the results to previous work on similar rocks found in the archipelago. Based on their high silica content, the lack of igneous trace element signatures, and the presence of remnant quartz crystals, jasper fragments and carbonate relicts, we conclude that "restingolites" are in fact xenoliths from pre-island sedimentary rocks that were picked up and heated by the ascending magma causing them to partially melt and vesiculate. They hence represent messengers from depth that help us to understand the interaction between ascending magma and crustal lithologies in the Canary Islands as well as in similar Atlantic islands that rest on sediment/covered ocean crust (e.g. Cape Verdes, Azores). The occurrence of these "restingolites" does therefore not indicate the presence of an explosive high-silica magma that is involved in the ongoing eruption.
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2011-10-18
    Description: Conditions for large earthquakes in a two-asperity fault model Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 709-717, 2011 Author(s): M. Dragoni and S. Santini A fault with two asperities is modelled as a system made of two blocks coupled by a spring and sliding on a plane under the same values of static and dynamic friction. An analytical solution is given for the simultaneous motion of the blocks and the corresponding orbits are plotted in the phase space. It is proven that, whichever the initial state is, the long-term behaviour of the system is one of an infinite number of limit cycles, characterized by a particular pattern of forces. The region where the system is located when the blocks are stationary can be divided into narrow stripes corresponding to different orbits of the points belonging to them. This implies that the system is sensitive to perturbations and has relevant implications for a fault, which is subject to stress transfers from earthquakes generated by neighbouring faults. In this case, the fault may experience a larger earthquake, with the simultaneous failure of the two asperities, which restores a stress distribution compatible with periodic behaviour. The seismic moment associated with simultaneous asperity failure is always greater than the maximum value that can be released in a limit cycle. For strongly coupled asperities, the moment can be several times larger.
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2011-10-21
    Description: Extreme events and long-range correlations in space weather Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 719-725, 2011 Author(s): A. S. Sharma and T. Veeramani Space weather is driven by the solar wind and many geospace storms and substorms are natural hazards with considerable societal impact. The dynamical and statistical features of these events are complicated because of the turbulent nature of their driver, the solar wind. Large-scale data sets of geospace storms and substorms are analysed for this study of the inherent statistical characteristics of extreme events in geospace. The detrended fluctuation analysis, based on the autocorrelation functions, is used and yields scaling behavior representing long-term correlations. The scaling function is represented by two exponents, arising due mainly to the presence of the largely coherent internal dynamics of the magnetosphere and the turbulent nature of the solar wind driver.
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2011-10-21
    Description: The evolution of electron current sheet and formation of secondary islands in guide field reconnection Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 727-733, 2011 Author(s): C. Huang, Q. Lu, Z. Yang, M. Wu, Q. Dong, and S. Wang Two-dimensional (2-D) particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations are performed to investigate the evolution of the electron current sheet (ECS) in guide field reconnection. The ECS is formed by electrons accelerated by the inductive electric field in the vicinity of the X line, which is then extended along the x direction due to the imbalance between the electric field force and Ampere force. The tearing instability is unstable when the ECS becomes sufficiently long and thin, and several seed islands are formed in the ECS. These tiny islands may coalesce and form a larger secondary island in the center of the diffusion region.
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2011-10-21
    Description: Ensemble Kalman filtering without the intrinsic need for inflation Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 735-750, 2011 Author(s): M. Bocquet The main intrinsic source of error in the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is sampling error. External sources of error, such as model error or deviations from Gaussianity, depend on the dynamical properties of the model. Sampling errors can lead to instability of the filter which, as a consequence, often requires inflation and localization. The goal of this article is to derive an ensemble Kalman filter which is less sensitive to sampling errors. A prior probability density function conditional on the forecast ensemble is derived using Bayesian principles. Even though this prior is built upon the assumption that the ensemble is Gaussian-distributed, it is different from the Gaussian probability density function defined by the empirical mean and the empirical error covariance matrix of the ensemble, which is implicitly used in traditional EnKFs. This new prior generates a new class of ensemble Kalman filters, called finite-size ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF-N). One deterministic variant, the finite-size ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF-N), is derived. It is tested on the Lorenz '63 and Lorenz '95 models. In this context, ETKF-N is shown to be stable without inflation for ensemble size greater than the model unstable subspace dimension, at the same numerical cost as the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF). One variant of ETKF-N seems to systematically outperform the ETKF with optimally tuned inflation. However it is shown that ETKF-N does not account for all sampling errors, and necessitates localization like any EnKF, whenever the ensemble size is too small. In order to explore the need for inflation in this small ensemble size regime, a local version of the new class of filters is defined (LETKF-N) and tested on the Lorenz '95 toy model. Whatever the size of the ensemble, the filter is stable. Its performance without inflation is slightly inferior to that of LETKF with optimally tuned inflation for small interval between updates, and superior to LETKF with optimally tuned inflation for large time interval between updates.
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2011-11-17
    Description: Three-dimensional parameterizations of the synoptic scale kinetic energy and momentum flux in the Earth's atmosphere Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 807-827, 2011 Author(s): D. Coumou, V. Petoukhov, and A. V. Eliseev We present a new set of statistical-dynamical equations (SDEs) which can accurately reproduce the three-dimensional atmospheric fields of synoptic scale kinetic energy and momentum flux. The set of equations is closed by finding proper parameterizations for the vertical macro-turbulent diffusion coefficient and ageostrophic terms. The equations have been implemented in a new SD atmosphere model, named Aeolus . We show that the synoptic scale kinetic energy and momentum fluxes generated by the model are in good agreement with empirical data, which were derived from bandpass-filtered ERA-40 data. In addition to present-day climate, the model is tested for substantially colder (last glacial maximum) and warmer (2×CO 2 ) climates, and shown to be in agreement with general circulation model (GCM) results. With the derived equations, one can efficiently study the position and strength of storm tracks under different climate scenarios with calculation time a fraction of those of GCMs. This work prepares ground for the development of a new generation of fast Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity which are able to perform multi-millennia simulations in a reasonable time frame while appropriately accounting for the climatic effect of storm tracks.
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2011-11-17
    Description: Scaling properties of pH fluctuations in coastal waters of the English Channel: pH as a turbulent active scalar Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 829-839, 2011 Author(s): S. B. Zongo and F. G. Schmitt We consider here pH and temperature fluctuations in marine waters, recorded at fixed points using high resolution automatic devices. We analyze time series coming from 4 monitoring stations located along French coast: one station is situated in the coastal area off Boulogne-sur-mer (Eastern English Channel) and 3 stations in the Bay of Seine. All these pH time series reveal large fluctuations at all scales similar to turbulent temperature fluctuations. We compare the pH and temperature time series through Fourier spectral analysis methods: spectra, compensated spectra, cospectra. We find good scaling properties of pH fluctuations, with power spectral slopes close to 1.5 for marine stations and 1.2 for the estuarine station. These analyses show that pH fluctuations in marine waters are strongly influenced by turbulent hydrodynamical transport, and may be considered as a turbulent active scalar.
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2011-11-29
    Description: Three-dimensional magnetic reconnection through a moving magnetic null Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 871-882, 2011 Author(s): V. S. Lukin and M. G. Linton A computational study of three-dimensional magnetic reconnection between two flux ropes through a moving reconnection site is presented. The configuration is considered in the context of two interacting spheromaks constrained by a perfectly conducting cylindrical boundary and oriented to form a single magnetic field null at its center. The initial magnetic field configuration is embedded into a uniform thermal plasma and is unstable to tilting. As the spheromaks tilt, their magnetic fields begin to reconnect at the null, subsequently displacing both the null and the reconnection site. The motion of the reconnection region and the magnetic null are shown to be correlated, with stronger correlation and faster reconnection observed in plasmas with lower thermal to magnetic pressure ratio. It is also shown that ion inertial effects allow for yet faster reconnection, but do not qualitatively change the dynamics of the process. Implications of the coupling between moving magnetic nulls and reconnection sites, as well as of possible mechanisms for fast reconnection through a moving reconnection region, are discussed. The simulations are conducted using both single-fluid and Hall MHD plasma models within the HiFi multi-fluid modeling framework.
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  • 100
    Publication Date: 2012-03-06
    Description: Intrinsic low-frequency variability of the Gulf Stream Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 155-164, 2012 Author(s): G. Quattrocchi, S. Pierini, and H. A. Dijkstra In this paper a process study aimed at analyzing the low-frequency variability of intrinsically oceanic origin of the Gulf Stream (GS) and GS extension (GSE) is presented. An eddy-permitting reduced-gravity nonlinear shallow water model is implemented in an idealized North Atlantic Ocean, with schematic boundaries including the essential geometric features of the coastline and a realistic zonal basin width at all latitudes. The forcing is provided by a time-independent climatological surface wind stress obtained from 41 years of monthly ECMWF fields. The model response yields strong intrinsic low-frequency fluctuations on the interannual to decadal time scales. The modelled time-averaged GS/GSE flows are found to exhibit several features that can also be deduced from satellite altimeter data, such as the Florida Current seaward deflection, the GS separation at Cape Hatteras, and the overall structure of the GSE. The intrinsic low-frequency variability yields two preferred states of the GSE differing in latitudinal location that also have their counterpart in the altimeter data. A preliminary analysis of the variability in terms of dynamical systems theory is carried out by using the lateral eddy viscosity as the control parameter. A complex transition sequence from a steady state to irregular low-frequency variability emerges, in which Hopf and global bifurcations can be identified.
    Print ISSN: 1023-5809
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7946
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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