ALBERT

Description: Tidally induced velocity variations of the Beardmore Glacier, Antarctica, and their representation in satellite measurements of ice velocity The Cryosphere, 7, 1375-1384, 2013 Author(s): O. J. Marsh, W. Rack, D. Floricioiu, N. R. Golledge, and W. Lawson Ocean tides close to the grounding line of outlet glaciers around Antarctica have been shown to directly influence ice velocity, both linearly and non-linearly. These fluctuations can be significant and have the potential to affect satellite measurements of ice discharge, which assume displacement between satellite passes to be consistent and representative of annual means. Satellite observations of horizontal velocity variation in the grounding zone are also contaminated by vertical tidal effects, the importance of which is highlighted here in speckle tracking measurements. Eight TerraSAR-X scenes from the grounding zone of the Beardmore Glacier are analysed in conjunction with GPS measurements to determine short-term and decadal trends in ice velocity. Diurnal tides produce horizontal velocity fluctuations of 〉50% on the ice shelf, recorded in the GPS data 4 km downstream of the grounding line. This variability decreases rapidly to 〈5% only 15 km upstream of the grounding line. Daily fluctuations are smoothed to 〈1% in the 11-day repeat pass TerraSAR-X imagery, but fortnightly variations over this period are still visible and show that satellite-velocity measurements can be affected by tides over longer periods. The measured tidal displacement observed in radar look direction over floating ice also allows the grounding line to be identified, using differential speckle tracking where phase information cannot be easily unwrapped.

Description: Beyond multifractional Brownian motion: new stochastic models for geophysical modelling Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 643-655, 2013 Author(s): J. Lévy Véhel Multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) has proved to be a useful tool in various areas of geophysical modelling. Although a versatile model, mBm is of course not always an adequate one. We present in this work several other stochastic processes which could potentially be useful in geophysics. The first alternative type is that of self-regulating processes : these are models where the local regularity is a function of the amplitude, in contrast to mBm where it is tuned exogenously. We demonstrate the relevance of such models for digital elevation maps and for temperature records. We also briefly describe two other types of alternative processes, which are the counterparts of mBm and of self-regulating processes when the intensity of local jumps is considered in lieu of local regularity: multistable processes allow one to prescribe the local intensity of jumps in space/time, while this intensity is governed by the amplitude for self-stabilizing processes .

Description: Snow on the Ross Ice Shelf: comparison of reanalyses and observations from automatic weather stations The Cryosphere, 7, 1399-1410, 2013 Author(s): L. Cohen and S. Dean Snow accumulation measurements from automatic weather stations (AWS) around the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), Antarctica, are used to provide a new set of ground-based observations which are compared to precipitation from the ECMWF ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-2 datasets. The high temporal resolution of the AWS snow accumulation measurements allow for an event-based comparison of reanalyses precipitation to the in situ observations. Snow accumulation records from nine AWS provide multiple years of accumulation data between 2008 and 2012 over a relatively large, homogeneous region of Antarctica, and also provide the basis for a statistical evaluation of accumulation and precipitation events. The complex effects of wind on snow accumulation (which can both limit and enhance accumulation) complicate the use of the accumulation measurements, but this analysis shows that they can provide a valuable source of ground-based observations for comparisons to modelled precipitation on synoptic timescales. The analysis shows that ERA-Interim reproduces more precipitation events than NCEP-2, and these events correspond to an average 8.2% more precipitation. Significant correlations between reanalyses and AWS event sizes are seen at several stations and show that ERA-Interim consistently produces larger precipitation events than NCEP-2.

Description: A general treatment of snow microstructure exemplified by an improved relation for thermal conductivity The Cryosphere, 7, 1473-1480, 2013 Author(s): H. Löwe, F. Riche, and M. Schneebeli Finding relevant microstructural parameters beyond density is a longstanding problem which hinders the formulation of accurate parameterizations of physical properties of snow. Towards a remedy, we address the effective thermal conductivity tensor of snow via anisotropic, second-order bounds. The bound provides an explicit expression for the thermal conductivity and predicts the relevance of a microstructural anisotropy parameter Q , which is given by an integral over the two-point correlation function and unambiguously defined for arbitrary snow structures. For validation we compiled a comprehensive data set of 167 snow samples. The set comprises individual samples of various snow types and entire time series of metamorphism experiments under isothermal and temperature gradient conditions. All samples were digitally reconstructed by micro-computed tomography to perform microstructure-based simulations of heat transport. The incorporation of anisotropy via Q considerably reduces the root mean square error over the usual density-based parameterization. The systematic quantification of anisotropy via the two-point correlation function suggests a generalizable route to incorporate microstructure into snowpack models. We indicate the inter-relation of the conductivity to other properties and outline a potential impact of Q on dielectric constant, permeability and adsorption rate of diffusing species in the pore space.

Description: Influence of high-order mechanics on simulation of glacier response to climate change: insights from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains The Cryosphere, 7, 1527-1541, 2013 Author(s): S. Adhikari and S. J. Marshall Evolution of glaciers in response to climate change has mostly been simulated using simplified dynamical models. Because these models do not account for the influence of high-order physics, corresponding results may exhibit some biases. For Haig Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, we test this hypothesis by comparing simulation results obtained from 3-D numerical models that deal with different assumptions concerning physics, ranging from simple shear deformation to comprehensive Stokes flow. In glacier retreat scenarios, we find a minimal role of high-order mechanics in glacier evolution, as geometric effects at our site (the presence of an overdeepened bed) result in limited horizontal movement of ice (flow speed on the order of a few meters per year). Consequently, high-order and reduced models all predict that Haig Glacier ceases to exist by ca. 2080 under ongoing climate warming. The influence of high-order mechanics is evident, however, in glacier advance scenarios, where ice speeds are greater and ice dynamical effects become more important. Although similar studies on other glaciers are essential to generalize such findings, we advise that high-order mechanics are important and therefore should be considered while modeling the evolution of active glaciers. Reduced model predictions may be adequate for other glaciologic and topographic settings, particularly where flow speeds are low and where mass balance changes dominate over ice dynamics in determining glacier geometry.

Description: Meteorological drivers of ablation processes on a cold glacier in the semi-arid Andes of Chile The Cryosphere, 7, 1513-1526, 2013 Author(s): S. MacDonell, C. Kinnard, T. Mölg, L. Nicholson, and J. Abermann Meteorological and surface change measurements collected during a 2.5 yr period are used to calculate surface mass and energy balances at 5324 m a.s.l. on Guanaco Glacier, a cold-based glacier in the semi-arid Andes of Chile. Meteorological conditions are marked by extremely low vapour pressures (annual mean of 1.1 hPa), strong winds (annual mean of 10 m s −1 ), shortwave radiation receipt persistently close to the theoretical site maximum during cloud-free days (mean annual 295 W m −2 ; summer hourly maximum 1354 W m −2 ) and low precipitation rates (mean annual 45 mm w.e.). Snowfall occurs sporadically throughout the year and is related to frontal events in the winter and convective storms during the summer months. Net shortwave radiation provides the greatest source of energy to the glacier surface, and net longwave radiation dominates energy losses. The turbulent latent heat flux is always negative, which means that the surface is always losing mass via sublimation, which is the main form of ablation at the site. Sublimation rates are most strongly correlated with net shortwave radiation, incoming shortwave radiation, albedo and vapour pressure. Low glacier surface temperatures restrict melting for much of the period, however episodic melting occurs during the austral summer, when warm, humid, calm and high pressure conditions restrict sublimation and make more energy available for melting. Low accumulation (131 mm w.e. over the period) and relatively high ablation (1435 mm w.e.) means that mass change over the period was negative (−1304 mm w.e.), which continued the negative trend recorded in the region over the last few decades.

Description: Antarctic ice-mass balance 2003 to 2012: regional reanalysis of GRACE satellite gravimetry measurements with improved estimate of glacial-isostatic adjustment based on GPS uplift rates The Cryosphere, 7, 1499-1512, 2013 Author(s): I. Sasgen, H. Konrad, E. R. Ivins, M. R. Van den Broeke, J. L. Bamber, Z. Martinec, and V. Klemann We present regional-scale mass balances for 25 drainage basins of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) from satellite observations of the Gravity and Climate Experiment (GRACE) for time period January 2003 to September 2012. Satellite gravimetry estimates of the AIS mass balance are strongly influenced by mass movement in the Earth interior caused by ice advance and retreat during the last glacial cycle. Here, we develop an improved glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) estimate for Antarctica using newly available GPS uplift rates, allowing us to more accurately separate GIA-induced trends in the GRACE gravity fields from those caused by current imbalances of the AIS. Our revised GIA estimate is considerably lower than previous predictions, yielding an estimate of apparent mass change of 53 ± 18 Gt yr −1 . Therefore, our AIS mass balance of −114 ± 23 Gt yr −1 is less negative than previous GRACE estimates. The northern Antarctic Peninsula and the Amundsen Sea sector exhibit the largest mass loss (−26 ± 3 Gt yr −1 and −127 ± 7 Gt yr −1 , respectively). In contrast, East Antarctica exhibits a slightly positive mass balance (26 ± 13 Gt yr −1 ), which is, however, mostly the consequence of compensating mass anomalies in Dronning Maud and Enderby Land (positive) and Wilkes and George V Land (negative) due to interannual accumulation variations. In total, 6% of the area constitutes about half the AIS imbalance, contributing 151 ± 7 Gt yr −1 (ca. 0.4 mm yr −1 ) to global mean sea-level change. Most of this imbalance is caused by ice-dynamic speed-up expected to prevail in the near future.

Description: Non-extensivity and long-range correlations in the earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift (Greece) Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 713-724, 2013 Author(s): G. Michas, F. Vallianatos, and P. Sammonds In the present work the statistical properties of the earthquake activity in a highly seismic region, the West Corinth rift (Central Greece), are being studied by means of generalized statistical physics. By using a dataset that covers the period 2001–2008, we investigate the earthquake energy distribution and the distribution of the time intervals (interevent times) between the successive events. As has been reported previously, these distributions exhibit complex statistical properties and fractality. By using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), a well-established method for detection of long-range correlations in non-stationary signals, it is shown that long-range correlations are also present in the earthquake activity. The existence of these properties motivates us to use non-extensive statistical physics (NESP) to investigate the statistical properties of the frequency-magnitude and the interevent time distributions, along with other well-known relations in seismology, such as the gamma distribution for interevent times. The results of the analysis indicate that the statistical properties of the earthquake activity can be successfully reproduced by means of NESP and that the earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift is correlated at all-time scales.

Description: The impact of initial spread calibration on the RELO ensemble and its application to Lagrangian dynamics Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 621-641, 2013 Author(s): M. Wei, G. Jacobs, C. Rowley, C. N. Barron, P. Hogan, P. Spence, O. M. Smedstad, P. Martin, P. Muscarella, and E. Coelho A number of real-time ocean model forecasts were carried out successfully at Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) to provide modeling support and numerical guidance to the CARTHE GLAD at-sea experiment during summer 2012. Two RELO ensembles and three single models using NCOM and HYCOM with different resolutions were carried out. A calibrated ensemble system with enhanced spread and reliability was developed to better support this experiment. The calibrated ensemble is found to outperform the un-calibrated ensemble in forecasting accuracy, skill, and reliability for all the variables and observation spaces evaluated. The metrics used in this paper include RMS error, anomaly correlation, PECA, Brier score, spread reliability, and Talagrand rank histogram. It is also found that even the un-calibrated ensemble outperforms the single forecast from the model with the same resolution. The advantages of the ensembles are further extended to the Lagrangian framework. In contrast to a single model forecast, the RELO ensemble provides not only the most likely Lagrangian trajectory for a particle in the ocean, but also an uncertainty estimate that directly reflects the complicated ocean dynamics, which is valuable for decision makers. The examples show that the calibrated ensemble with more reliability can capture trajectories in different, even opposite, directions, which would be missed by the un-calibrated ensemble. The ensembles are applied to compute the repelling and attracting Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs), and the uncertainties of the LCSs, which are hard to obtain from a single model forecast, are estimated. It is found that the spatial scales of the LCSs depend on the model resolution. The model with the highest resolution produces the finest, small-scale, LCS structures, while the model with lowest resolution generates only large-scale LCSs. The repelling and attracting LCSs are found to intersect at many locations and create complex mesoscale eddies. The fluid particles and drifters in the middle of these tangles are subject to attraction and repulsion simultaneously from these two kinds of LCSs. As a result, the movements of particles near the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) location are severely limited. This is also confirmed by the Lagrangian trajectories predicted by the ensembles.

Description: Multifractal properties of embedded convective structures in orographic precipitation: toward subgrid-scale predictability Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 605-620, 2013 Author(s): M. Nogueira, A. P. Barros, and P. M. A. Miranda Rain and cloud fields produced by fully nonlinear idealized cloud resolving numerical simulations of orographic convective precipitation display statistical multiscaling behavior, implying that multifractal diagnostics should provide a physically robust basis for the downscaling and sub-grid scale parameterizations of moist processes. Our results show that the horizontal scaling exponent function (and respective multiscaling parameters) of the simulated rainfall and cloud fields varies with atmospheric and terrain properties, particularly small-scale terrain spectra, atmospheric stability, and advective timescale. This implies that multifractal diagnostics of moist processes for these simulations are fundamentally transient, exhibiting complex nonlinear behavior depending on atmospheric conditions and terrain forcing at each location. A particularly robust behavior found here is the transition of the multifractal parameters between stable and unstable cases, which has a clear physical correspondence to the transition from stratiform to organized (banded and cellular) convective regime. This result is reinforced by a similar behavior in the horizontal spectral exponent. Finally, our results indicate that although nonlinearly coupled fields (such as rain and clouds) have different scaling exponent functions, there are robust relationships with physical underpinnings between the scaling parameters that can be explored for hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling.

Description: 3-D reflection seismic imaging of the Hontomín structure in the Basque-Cantabrian Basin (Spain) Solid Earth Discussions, 5, 1575-1614, 2013 Author(s): J. Alcalde, D. Martí, C. Juhlin, A. Malehmir, D. Sopher, E. Saura, I. Marzán, P. Ayarza, A. Calahorrano, A. Pérez-Estaún, and R. Carbonell The Basque-Cantabrian Basin of the Northern Iberia peninsula constitutes a unique example of a major deformation system, featuring a dome structure developed by extensional tectonics followed by compressional reactivation. The occurrence of natural resources in the area and the possibility of establishing a geological storage site for carbon dioxide motivated the acquisition of a 3-D seismic reflection survey in 2010, centered on the Jurassic Hontomín dome. The objectives of this survey were to obtain a geological model of the overall structure and to establish a baseline model for a possible geological CO 2 storage site. The 36 km 2 survey included approximately 5000 mixed (Vibroseis and explosives) source points recorded with a 25 m inline source and receiver spacing. The target reservoir is a saline aquifer, at approximately 1450 m depth, encased and sealed by carbonate formations. Acquisition and processing parameters were influenced by the rough topography and relatively complex geology. A strong near surface velocity inversion is evident in the data, affecting the quality of the data. The resulting 3-D image provides constraints on the key features of the geologic model. The Hontomín structure is interpreted to consist of an approximately 10 7 m 2 large elongated dome with two major W–E and NW–SE striking faults bounding it.

Description: Review of some significant claimed irregularities in Scandinavian postglacial uplift in time scales from tens to thousands of years: earthquakes? Solid Earth Discussions, 5, 1615-1640, 2013 Author(s): S. Gregersen The postglacial uplift/subsidence in Scandinavia is regular. And the phenomenon is similar in time scales of tens, hundreds and thousands of years studied via geodesy, seismology and geology. Searches for irregularities in the form of earthquakes claimed in the scientific literature have disclosed many earthquakes right after the Ice Age and some later cases for further evaluation. In a previous report the present author has mentioned doubts about the validity of some of the most significant claimed irregularities. In the present paper a review is made of these significant claimed irregularities in the southwestern flank of the Scandinavian postglacial uplift/subsidence via literature studies of geodetic and geological claims of earthquakes as well as discussions in the field. Geodetic observations exist for all of Scandinavia. Those describe the phenomenon in 10s–100s of years scale. Earthquake observations in seismology are of relevance in the same time scales. Geological studies of dated shore lines describe the postglacial vertical earth-surface motion in a quite different time scale of 100s–1000s of years. There is a need for integration of these observations geographically. This is happening in the various time scales in the DynaQlim project. The review finds the claims improbable about the following: (1) geodynamical motion in the Copenhagen area, (2) a paleo-earthquake in Læsø and (3) the recently proposed water level discrepancy in the southern part of Denmark. The assessment is less certain, but falls to improbable concerning (4) proposed paleo-earthquakes by Hallandsåsen in southwestern Sweden.

Description: Evidence of meltwater retention within the Greenland ice sheet The Cryosphere, 7, 1433-1445, 2013 Author(s): A. K. Rennermalm, L. C. Smith, V. W. Chu, J. E. Box, R. R. Forster, M. R. Van den Broeke, D. Van As, and S. E. Moustafa Greenland ice sheet mass losses have increased in recent decades with more than half of these attributed to surface meltwater runoff. However, the magnitudes of englacial storage, firn retention, internal refreezing and other hydrologic processes that delay or reduce true water export to the global ocean remain less understood, partly due to a scarcity of in situ measurements. Here, ice sheet surface meltwater runoff and proglacial river discharge between 2008 and 2010 near Kangerlussuaq, southwestern Greenland were used to establish sub- and englacial meltwater storage for a small ice sheet watershed (36–64 km 2 ). This watershed lacks significant potential meltwater storage in firn, surface lakes on the ice sheet and in the proglacial area, and receives limited proglacial precipitation. Thus, ice sheet surface runoff not accounted for by river discharge can reasonably be attributed to retention in sub- and englacial storage. Evidence for meltwater storage within the ice sheet includes (1) characteristic dampened daily river discharge amplitudes relative to ice sheet runoff; (2) three cold-season river discharge anomalies at times with limited ice sheet surface melt, demonstrating that meltwater may be retained up to 1–6 months; (3) annual ice sheet watershed runoff is not balanced by river discharge, and while near water budget closure is possible as much as 54% of melting season ice sheet runoff may not escape to downstream rivers; (4) even the large meltwater retention estimate (54%) is equivalent to less than 1% of the ice sheet volume, which suggests that storage in en- and subglacial cavities and till is plausible. While this study is the first to provide evidence for meltwater retention and delayed release within the Greenland ice sheet, more information is needed to establish how widespread this is along the Greenland ice sheet perimeter.

Description: High-resolution provenance of desert dust deposited on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus in 2009–2012 using snow pit and firn core records The Cryosphere, 7, 1481-1498, 2013 Author(s): S. Kutuzov, M. Shahgedanova, V. Mikhalenko, P. Ginot, I. Lavrentiev, and S. Kemp The first record of dust deposition events on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains derived from a snow pit and a shallow firn core is presented for the 2009–2012 period. A combination of isotopic analysis, SEVIRI red-green-blue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived using the HYSPLIT model and analyses of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (ca. 20–100 km) resolution. Seventeen dust deposition events were detected; fourteen occurred in March–June, one in February and two in October. Four events originated in the Sahara, predominantly in northeastern Libya and eastern Algeria. Thirteen events originated in the Middle East, in the Syrian Desert and northern Mesopotamia, from a mixture of natural and anthropogenic sources. Dust transportation from Sahara was associated with vigorous Saharan depressions, strong surface winds in the source region and mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow with daily winds speeds of 20–30 m s −1 at 700 hPa level. Although these events were less frequent than those originating in the Middle East, they resulted in higher dust concentrations in snow. Dust transportation from the Middle East was associated with weaker depressions forming over the source region, high pressure centred over or extending towards the Caspian Sea and a weaker southerly or southeasterly flow towards the Caucasus Mountains with daily wind speeds of 12–18 m s −1 at 700 hPa level. Higher concentrations of nitrates and ammonium characterised dust from the Middle East deposited on Mt. Elbrus in 2009 indicating contribution of anthropogenic sources. The modal values of particle size distributions ranged between 1.98 μm and 4.16 μm. Most samples were characterised by modal values of 2.0–2.8 μm with an average of 2.6 μm and there was no significant difference between dust from the Sahara and the Middle East.

Description: Changes in glacier equilibrium-line altitude in the western Alps from 1984 to 2010: evaluation by remote sensing and modeling of the morpho-topographic and climate controls The Cryosphere, 7, 1455-1471, 2013 Author(s): A. Rabatel, A. Letréguilly, J.-P. Dedieu, and N. Eckert We present time series of equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) measured from the end-of-summer snow line altitude computed using satellite images, for 43 glaciers in the western Alps over the 1984–2010 period. More than 120 satellite images acquired by Landsat, SPOT and ASTER were used. In parallel, changes in climate variables, summer cumulative positive degree days (CPDD) and winter precipitation, were analyzed over the same time period using 22 weather stations located inside and around the study area. Assuming a continuous linear trend over the study period: (1) the average ELA of the 43 glaciers increased by about 170 m; (2) summer CPDD increased by about 150 PDD at 3000 m a.s.l.; and (3) winter precipitation remained rather stationary. Summer CPDD showed homogeneous spatial and temporal variability; winter precipitation showed homogeneous temporal variability, but some stations showed a slightly different spatial pattern. Regarding ELAs, temporal variability between the 43 glaciers was also homogeneous, but spatially, glaciers in the southern part of the study area differed from glaciers in the northern part, mainly due to a different precipitation pattern. A sensitivity analysis of the ELAs to climate and morpho-topographic variables (elevation, aspect, latitude) highlighted the following: (1) the average ELA over the study period of each glacier is strongly controlled by morpho-topographic variables; and (2) the interannual variability of the ELA is strongly controlled by climate variables, with the observed increasing trend mainly driven by increasing temperatures, even if significant nonlinear, low-frequency fluctuations appear to be driven by winter precipitation anomalies. Finally, we used an expansion of Lliboutry's approach to reconstruct fluctuations in the ELA of any glacier of the study area with respect to morpho-topographic and climate variables, by quantifying their respective weight and the related uncertainties in a consistent manner within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. This method was tested and validated using the ELA measured on the satellite images.

Description: A top-down model to generate ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 683-704, 2013 Author(s): P. R. Furey, V. K. Gupta, and B. M. Troutman We hypothesize that total hillslope water loss for a rainfall–runoff event is inversely related to a function of a lognormal random variable, based on basin- and point-scale observations taken from the 21 km 2 Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) in Mississippi, USA. A top-down approach is used to develop a new runoff generation model both to test our physical-statistical hypothesis and to provide a method of generating ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes in a basin. The model is based on the assumption that the probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio have a space–time rescaling property. We test this assumption using streamflow and rainfall data from GCEW. For over 100 rainfall–runoff events, we find that the spatial probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio can be rescaled to a new distribution that is common to all events. We interpret random within-event differences in runoff/loss ratios in the model to arise from soil moisture spatial variability. Observations of water loss during events in GCEW support this interpretation. Our model preserves water balance in a mean statistical sense and supports our hypothesis. As an example, we use the model to generate ensembles of runoff at a large number of hillslopes for a rainfall–runoff event in GCEW.

Description: A mechanism for catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation for sparse observation networks Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 705-712, 2013 Author(s): G. A. Gottwald and A. J. Majda We study catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation procedures whereby the forecast model develops severe numerical instabilities leading to a blow-up of the solution. Catastrophic filter divergence can occur in sparse observational grids with small observational noise for intermediate observation intervals and finite ensemble sizes. Using a minimal five-dimensional model, we establish that catastrophic filter divergence is a numerical instability of the underlying forecast model caused by the filtering procedure producing analyses which are not consistent with the true dynamics, and stiffness caused by the fast attraction of the inconsistent analyses towards the attractor during the forecast step.

Description: A note on the water budget of temperate glaciers The Cryosphere, 7, 1557-1564, 2013 Author(s): J. Oerlemans In this note, the total dissipative melting in temperate glaciers is studied. The analysis is based on the notion that the dissipation is determined by the loss of potential energy due to the downward motion of mass (ice, snow, meltwater and rain). A mathematical formulation of the dissipation is developed and applied to a simple glacier geometry. In the next step, meltwater production resulting from enhanced ice motion during a glacier surge is calculated. The amount of melt energy available follows directly from the lowering of the centre of gravity of the glacier. To illustrate the concept, schematic calculations are presented for a number of glaciers with different geometric characteristics. Typical dissipative melt rates, expressed as water-layer depth averaged over the glacier, range from a few centimetres per year for smaller glaciers to half a metre per year for Franz Josef Glacier, one of the most active glaciers in the world (in terms of mass turnover). The total generation of meltwater during a surge is typically half a metre. For Variegated Glacier a value of 70 cm is found, for Kongsvegen 20 cm. These values refer to water layer depth averaged over the entire glacier. The melt \textit{rate} depends on the duration of the surge. It is generally an order of magnitude greater than water production by `normal' dissipation. On the other hand, the additional basal melt rate during a surge is comparable in magnitude with the water input from meltwater and precipitation. This suggests that enhanced melting during a surge does not grossly change the total water budget of a glacier. Basal water generated by enhanced sliding is an important ingredient in many theories of glacier surges. It provides a positive feedback mechanism that actually makes the surge happen. The results found here suggest that this can only work if water generated by enhanced sliding accumulates in a part of the glacier base where surface meltwater and rain have no or very limited access. This finding seems compatible with the fact that, on many glaciers, surges are initiated in the lower accumulation zone.

Description: Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties The Cryosphere, 7, 1565-1577, 2013 Author(s): S. H. Mernild, W. H. Lipscomb, D. B. Bahr, V. Radić, and M. Zemp Most glaciers and ice caps (GIC) are out of balance with the current climate. To return to equilibrium, GIC must thin and retreat, losing additional mass and raising sea level. Because glacier observations are sparse and geographically biased, there is an undersampling problem common to all global assessments. Here, we further develop an assessment approach based on accumulation-area ratios (AAR) to estimate committed mass losses and analyze the undersampling problem. We compiled all available AAR observations for 144 GIC from 1971 to 2010, and found that most glaciers and ice caps are farther from balance than previously believed. Accounting for regional and global undersampling errors, our model suggests that GIC are committed to additional losses of 32 ± 12% of their area and 38 ± 16% of their volume if the future climate resembles the climate of the past decade. These losses imply global mean sea-level rise of 163 ± 69 mm, assuming total glacier volume of 430 mm sea-level equivalent. To reduce the large uncertainties in these projections, more long-term glacier measurements are needed in poorly sampled regions.

Description: Sub-inertial modulation of nonlinear Kelvin waves in the coastal zone Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 357-364, 2013 Author(s): D. V. Stepanov and V. V. Novotryasov Observational evidence is presented for interaction between nonlinear internal Kelvin waves at the ω t,i (where the ω t is the semidiurnal frequency and the ω i is the inertial frequency) and random oscillations of the background coastal current at the sub-inertial Ω frequency in the Japan/East Sea. Enhanced coastal currents at the sum ω + and difference ω-frequencies ω ± =ω t,i ± Ω have properties of propagating Kelvin waves, which suggests permanent energy exchange from the sub-inertial band to the mesoscale ω ± band. This interaction may be responsible for a greater-than-predicted intensification, steepening and breaking of boundary-trapped Kelvin waves. The problem of interaction between the nonlinear Kelvin wave at the frequency ω and the low-frequency narrowband noise with representative frequency Ω≪ω is investigated using the theory of nonlinear weak dispersion waves.

Description: 3-D geomechanical modelling of a gas reservoir in the North German Basin: workflow for model building and calibration Solid Earth Discussions, 5, 767-788, 2013 Author(s): K. Fischer and A. Henk The optimal use of conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs depends, amongst others, on the local tectonic stress field. For example, wellbore stability, orientation of hydraulically induced fractures and – especially in fractured reservoirs – permeability anisotropies are controlled by the recent in situ stresses. Faults and lithological changes can lead to stress perturbations and produce local stresses that can significantly deviate from the regional stress field. Geomechanical reservoir models aim for a robust, ideally "pre-drilling" prediction of the local variations in stress magnitude and orientation. This requires a~numerical modelling approach that is capable to incorporate the specific geometry and mechanical properties of the subsurface reservoir. The workflow presented in this paper can be used to build 3-D geomechanical models based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) and ranging from field-scale models to smaller, detailed submodels of individual fault blocks. The approach is successfully applied to an intensively faulted gas reservoir in the North German Basin. The in situ stresses predicted by the geomechanical FE model were calibrated against stress data actually observed, e.g. borehole breakouts and extended leak-off tests. Such a validated model can provide insights into the stress perturbations in the inter-well space and undrilled parts of the reservoir. In addition, the tendency of the existing fault network to slip or dilate in the present-day stress regime can be addressed.

Description: Recent changes in spring snowmelt timing in the Yukon River basin detected by passive microwave satellite data The Cryosphere, 7, 905-916, 2013 Author(s): K. A. Semmens and J. M. Ramage Spring melt is a significant feature of high latitude snowmelt dominated drainage basins influencing hydrological and ecological processes such as snowmelt runoff and green-up. Melt duration, defined as the transition period from snowmelt onset until the end of the melt refreeze, is characterized by high diurnal amplitude variations (DAV) where the snowpack is melting during the day and refreezing at night, after which the snowpack melts constantly until depletion. Determining trends for this critical period is necessary for understanding how the Arctic is changing with rising temperatures and provides a baseline from which to assess future change. To study this dynamic period, brightness temperature ( T b ) data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) 37 V-GHz frequency from 1988 to 2010 were used to assess snowmelt timing trends for the Yukon River basin, Alaska/Canada. Annual T b and DAV for 1434 Equal-Area Scalable Earth (EASE)-Grid pixels (25 km resolution) were processed to determine melt onset and melt refreeze dates from T b and DAV thresholds previously established in the region. Temporal and spatial trends in the timing of melt onset and melt refreeze, and the duration of melt were analyzed for the 13 sub-basins of the Yukon River basin with three different time interval approaches. Results show a lengthening of the melt period for the majority of the sub-basins with a significant trend toward later end of melt refreeze after which the snowpack melts day and night leading to snow clearance, peak discharge, and green-up. Earlier melt onset trends were also found in the higher elevations and northernmost sub-basins (Porcupine, Chandalar, and Koyukuk rivers). Latitude and elevation displayed the dominant controls on melt timing variability and spring solar flux was highly correlated with melt timing in middle (∼600–1600 m) elevations.

Description: Seasonal controls on snow distribution and aerial ablation at the snow-patch and landscape scales, McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica The Cryosphere, 7, 917-931, 2013 Author(s): J. W. Eveland, M. N. Gooseff, D. J. Lampkin, J. E. Barrett, and C. D. Takacs-Vesbach Accumulated snow in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, while limited, has great ecological significance to subnivian soil environments. Though sublimation dominates the ablation process in this region, measurable increases in soil moisture and insulation from temperature extremes provide more favorable conditions with respect to subnivian soil communities. While precipitation is not substantial, significant amounts of snow can accumulate, via wind transport, in topographic lees along the valley bottoms, forming thousands of discontinuous snow patches. These patches have the potential to act as significant sources of local meltwater, controlling biogeochemical cycling and the landscape distribution of microbial communities. Therefore, determining the spatial and temporal dynamics of snow at multiple scales is imperative to understanding the broader ecological role of snow in this region. High-resolution satellite imagery acquired during the 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 austral summers was used to quantify the distribution of snow across Taylor and Wright valleys. Extracted snow-covered area from the imagery was used as the basis for assessing inter-annual variability and seasonal controls on accumulation and ablation of snow at multiple scales. In addition to landscape analyses, fifteen 1 km 2 plots (3 in each of 5 study regions) were selected to assess the prevalence of snow cover at finer spatial scales, referred to herein as the snow-patch scale. Results confirm that snow patches tend to form in the same locations each year with some minor deviations observed. At the snow-patch scale, neighboring patches often exhibit considerable differences in aerial ablation rates, and particular snow patches do not reflect trends for snow-covered area observed at the landscape scale. These differences are presumably related to microtopographic influences acting on individual snow patches, such as wind sheltering and differences in snow depth due to the underlying topography. This highlights the importance of both the landscape and snow-patch scales in assessing the effects of snow cover on biogeochemical cycling and microbial communities.

Description: Ice-shelf buttressing and the stability of marine ice sheets The Cryosphere, 7, 647-655, 2013 Author(s): G. H. Gudmundsson Ice-shelf buttressing and the stability of marine-type ice sheets are investigated numerically. Buttressing effects are analysed for a situation where a stable grounding line is located on a bed sloping upwards in the direction of flow. Such grounding-line positions are known to be unconditionally unstable in the absence of transverse flow variations. It is shown that ice-shelf buttressing can restore stability under these conditions. Ice flux at the grounding line is, in general, not a monotonically increasing function of ice thickness. This, possibly at first somewhat counterintuitive result, is found to be fully consistent with recent theoretical work. Grounding lines on retrograde slopes are conditionally stable, and the stability regime is a non-trivial function of bed and ice-shelf geometry. The stability of grounding lines cannot be assessed from considerations of local bed slope only.

Description: Evidence and analysis of 2012 Greenland records from spaceborne observations, a regional climate model and reanalysis data The Cryosphere, 7, 615-630, 2013 Author(s): M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, T. Mote, J. Wahr, P. Alexander, J. E. Box, and B. Wouters A combined analysis of remote sensing observations, regional climate model (RCM) outputs and reanalysis data over the Greenland ice sheet provides evidence that multiple records were set during summer 2012. Melt extent was the largest in the satellite era (extending up to ∼97% of the ice sheet) and melting lasted up to ∼2 months longer than the 1979–2011 mean. Model results indicate that near surface temperature was ∼3 standard deviations (σ) above the 1958–2011 mean, while surface mass balance (SMB) was ∼3σ below the mean and runoff was 3.9σ above the mean over the same period. Albedo, exposure of bare ice and surface mass balance also set new records, as did the total mass balance with summer and annual mass changes of, respectively, −627 Gt and −574 Gt, 2σ below the 2003–2012 mean. We identify persistent anticyclonic conditions over Greenland associated with anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), changes in surface conditions (e.g., albedo, surface temperature) and preconditioning of surface properties from recent extreme melting as major driving mechanisms for the 2012 records. Less positive if not increasingly negative SMB will likely occur should these characteristics persist.

Description: Application of wavelet transform for evaluation of hydrocarbon reservoirs: example from Iranian oil fields in the north of the Persian Gulf Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 231-238, 2013 Author(s): M. R. Saadatinejad and H. Hassani The Persian Gulf and its surrounding area are some of the biggest basins and have a very important role in producing huge amounts of hydrocarbon, and this potential was evaluated in order to explore the target for geoscientists and petroleum engineers. Wavelet transform is a useful and applicable technique to reveal frequency contents of various signals in different branches of science and especially in petroleum studies. We applied two major capacities of continuous mode of wavelet transform in seismic investigations. These investigations were operated to detect reservoir geological structures and some anomalies related to hydrocarbon to develop and explore new petroleum reservoirs in at least 4 oilfields in the southwest of Iran. It had been observed that continuous wavelet transform results show some discontinuities in the location of faults and are able to display them more clearly than other seismic methods. Moreover, continuous wavelet transform, utilizing Morlet wavelet, displays low-frequency shadows on 4 different iso-frequency vertical sections to identify reservoirs containing gas. By comparing these different figures, the presence of low-frequency shadows under the reservoir could be seen and we can relate these variations from anomalies at different frequencies as an indicator of the presence of hydrocarbons in the target reservoir.

Description: Balanced conditions or slight mass gain of glaciers in the Lahaul and Spiti region (northern India, Himalaya) during the nineties preceded recent mass loss The Cryosphere, 7, 569-582, 2013 Author(s): C. Vincent, Al. Ramanathan, P. Wagnon, D. P. Dobhal, A. Linda, E. Berthier, P. Sharma, Y. Arnaud, M. F. Azam, P. G. Jose, and J. Gardelle The volume change of the Chhota Shigri Glacier (India, 32° 20 N, 77° 30' E) between 1988 and 2010 has been determined using in situ geodetic measurements. This glacier has experienced only a slight mass loss between 1988 and 2010 (−3.8 ± 2.0 m w.e. (water equivalent) corresponding to −0.17 ± 0.09 m w.e. yr −1 ). Using satellite digital elevation models (DEM) differencing and field measurements, we measure a negative mass balance (MB) between 1999 and 2010 (−4.8 ± 1.8 m w.e. corresponding to −0.44 ± 0.16 m w.e. yr −1 ). Thus, we deduce a slightly positive or near-zero MB between 1988 and 1999 (+1.0 ± 2.7 m w.e. corresponding to +0.09 ± 0.24 m w.e. yr −1 ). Furthermore, satellite DEM differencing reveals that the MB of the Chhota Shigri Glacier (−0.39 ± 0.15 m w.e. yr −1 ) has been only slightly less negative than the MB of a 2110 km 2 glaciarized area in the Lahaul and Spiti region (−0.44 ± 0.09 m w.e. yr −1 ) during 1999−2011. Hence, we conclude that the ice wastage is probably moderate in this region over the last 22 yr, with near equilibrium conditions during the nineties, and an ice mass loss after. The turning point from balanced to negative mass budget is not known but lies probably in the late nineties and at the latest in 1999. This positive or near-zero MB for Chhota Shigri Glacier (and probably for the surrounding glaciers of the Lahaul and Spiti region) during at least part of the 1990s contrasts with a recent compilation of MB data in the Himalayan range that indicated ice wastage since 1975. However, in agreement with this compilation, we confirm more negative balances since the beginning of the 21st century.

Description: The geomorphological effect of cornice fall avalanches in the Longyeardalen valley, Svalbard The Cryosphere, 7, 1361-1374, 2013 Author(s): M. Eckerstorfer, H. H. Christiansen, L. Rubensdotter, and S. Vogel The study of snow avalanches and their geomorphological effect in the periglacial parts of the cryosphere is important for enhanced geomorphological process understanding as well as hazard-related studies. Only a few field studies, and particularly few in the High Arctic, have quantified avalanche sedimentation. Snow avalanches are traditionally ranked behind rockfall in terms of their significance for mass-wasting processes of rockslopes. Cornice fall avalanches are at present the most dominant snow avalanche type at two slope systems, called Nybyen and Larsbreen, in the valley Longyeardalen in central Svalbard. Both slope systems are on northwest-facing lee slopes underneath a large summit plateau, with annual cornices forming on the top. High-frequency and magnitude cornice fall avalanching is observed by daily automatic time-lapse photography. In addition, rock debris sedimentation by cornice fall avalanches was measured directly in permanent sediment traps or by snow inventories. The results from a maximum of seven years of measurements in a total of 13 catchments show maximum mean rock debris sedimentation rates ranging from 8.2 to 38.7 kg m −2 at Nybyen, and from 0.8 to 55.4 kg m −2 at Larsbreen. Correspondingly, avalanche fan surfaces accreted from 2.6 to 8.8 mm yr −1 at Nybyen, and from 0.2 to 13.9 mm yr −1 at Larsbreen. This comparably efficient rockslope mass wasting is due to collapsing cornices producing cornice fall avalanches containing large amounts of rock debris throughout the entire winter. The rock debris of different origin stems from the plateau crests, the adjacent free rock face and the transport pathway, accumulating distinct avalanche fans at both slope systems. Cornice fall avalanche sedimentation also contributed to the development of a rock glacier at the Larsbreen site during the Holocene. We have recorded present maximum rockwall retreat rates of 0.9 mm yr −1 at Nybyen, but as much as 6.7 mm yr −1 at Larsbreen, while average Holocene rockwall retreat rates of 1.1 mm yr −1 at Nybyen have been determined earlier. As cornice fall avalanches are the dominant type of avalanche in central Svalbard, the related geomorphological effect is assumed to be of significance at periglacial landscape scale. A climate-induced shift in prevailing winter wind direction could change the rockslope sedimentation effectively by changing the snow avalanche activity.

Description: Heterogeneity in glacier response in the upper Shyok valley, northeast Karakoram The Cryosphere, 7, 1385-1398, 2013 Author(s): R. Bhambri, T. Bolch, P. Kawishwar, D. P. Dobhal, D. Srivastava, and B. Pratap Glaciers in the Karakoram show long-term irregular behaviour with comparatively frequent and sudden advances. A glacier inventory of the upper Shyok valley situated in northeast Karakoram has been generated for the year 2002 using Landsat ETM+ and SRTM3 DEM as baseline data for the investigations and subsequent change analysis. The upper Shyok valley contained 2123 glaciers (larger than 0.02 km 2 in size) with an area of 2977.9 ± 95.3 km 2 in 2002. Out of these, 18 glaciers with an area of 1004.1 ± 32.1 km 2 showed surge-type behaviour. Change analysis based on Hexagon KH-9 (years 1973 and 1974) and Landsat TM/ETM+ (years 1989, 2002 and 2011) images had to be restricted to a subset of 136 glaciers (covering an area of 1609.7 ± 51.5 km 2 in 2002) due to adverse snow conditions. The area of the investigated glaciers, including the 18 surge-type glaciers identified, showed no significant changes during all studied periods. However, the analysis provides a hint that the overall glacier area slightly decreased until about 1989 (area 1973: 1613.6 ± 43.6 km 2 ; area 1989: 1602.0 ± 33.6 km 2 ) followed by an increase (area 2002: 1609.7 ± 51.5; area 2011: 1615.8 ± 35.5 km 2 ). Although the overall change in area is insignificant, advances in glacier tongues since the end of the 1980s are clearly visible. Detailed estimations of length changes for individual glaciers since the 1970s and for Central Rimo Glacier since the 1930s confirm the irregular retreat and advance.

Description: Distributed allocation of mobile sensing swarms in gyre flows Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 657-668, 2013 Author(s): K. Mallory, M. A. Hsieh, E. Forgoston, and I. B. Schwartz We address the synthesis of distributed control policies to enable a swarm of homogeneous mobile sensors to maintain a desired spatial distribution in a geophysical flow environment, or workspace. In this article, we assume the mobile sensors (or robots) have a "map" of the environment denoting the locations of the Lagrangian coherent structures or LCS boundaries. Using this information, we design agent-level hybrid control policies that leverage the surrounding fluid dynamics and inherent environmental noise to enable the team to maintain a desired distribution in the workspace. We discuss the stability properties of the ensemble dynamics of the distributed control policies. Since realistic quasi-geostrophic ocean models predict double-gyre flow solutions, we use a wind-driven multi-gyre flow model to verify the feasibility of the proposed distributed control strategy and compare the proposed control strategy with a baseline deterministic allocation strategy. Lastly, we validate the control strategy using actual flow data obtained by our coherent structure experimental testbed.

Description: Weak layer fracture: facets and depth hoar The Cryosphere, 7, 1447-1453, 2013 Author(s): I. Reiweger and J. Schweizer Understanding failure initiation within weak snow layers is essential for modeling and predicting dry-snow slab avalanches. We therefore performed laboratory experiments with snow samples containing a weak layer consisting of either faceted crystals or depth hoar. During these experiments the samples were loaded with different loading rates and at various tilt angles until fracture. The strength of the samples decreased with increasing loading rate and increasing tilt angle. Additionally, we took pictures of the side of four samples with a high-speed video camera and calculated the displacement using a particle image velocimetry (PIV) algorithm. The fracture process within the weak layer could thus be observed in detail. Catastrophic failure started due to a shear fracture just above the interface between the depth hoar layer and the underlying crust.

Description: Scatter of mass changes estimates at basin scale for Greenland and Antarctica The Cryosphere, 7, 1411-1432, 2013 Author(s): V. R. Barletta, L. S. Sørensen, and R. Forsberg During the last decade, the GRACE mission has provided valuable data for determining the mass changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Yet, discrepancies still exist in the published mass balance results, and comprehensive analyses on the sources of errors and discrepancies are lacking. Here, we present monthly mass changes together with trends derived from GRACE data at basin scale for both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and we assess the variability and errors for each of the possible sources of discrepancies, and we do this in an unprecedented systematic way, taking into account mass inference methods, data sets and background models. We find a very good agreement between the monthly mass change results derived from two independent methods, which represents a cross validation. For the monthly solutions, we find that most of the scatter is caused by the use of the two different data sets rather than the two different methods applied. Besides the well-known GIA trend uncertainty, we find that the geocenter motion and the recent de-aliasing corrections significantly impact the trends, with contributions of +13.2 Gt yr −1 and −20 Gt yr −1 , respectively, for Antarctica, which is more affected by these than Greenland. We show differences between the use of release RL04 and the new RL05 and confirm a lower noise content in the new release. The overall scatter of the solutions well exceeds the uncertainties propagated from the data errors and the leakage (as done in the past); hence we calculate new sound total errors for the monthly solutions and the trends. We find that the scatter in the monthly solutions caused by applying different estimates of geocenter motion time series (degree-1 corrections) is significant – contributing with up to 40% of the total error. For the whole GRACE period (2003–2011) our trend estimate for Greenland is −234 ± 20 Gt yr −1 and −83 ± 36 Gt yr −1 for Antarctica (−111 ± 15 Gt yr −1 in the western part). We also find a clear (with respect to our errors) increase of mass loss in the last four years.

Description: Four-dimensional ensemble-variational data assimilation for global deterministic weather prediction Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 669-682, 2013 Author(s): M. Buehner, J. Morneau, and C. Charette The goal of this study is to evaluate a version of the ensemble-variational data assimilation approach (EnVar) for possible replacement of 4D-Var at Environment Canada for global deterministic weather prediction. This implementation of EnVar relies on 4-D ensemble covariances, obtained from an ensemble Kalman filter, that are combined in a vertically dependent weighted average with simple static covariances. Verification results are presented from a set of data assimilation experiments over two separate 6-week periods that used assimilated observations and model configuration very similar to the currently operational system. To help interpret the comparison of EnVar versus 4D-Var, additional experiments using 3D-Var and a version of EnVar with only 3-D ensemble covariances are also evaluated. To improve the rate of convergence for all approaches evaluated (including EnVar), an estimate of the cost function Hessian generated by the quasi-Newton minimization algorithm is cycled from one analysis to the next. Analyses from EnVar (with 4-D ensemble covariances) nearly always produce improved, and never degraded, forecasts when compared with 3D-Var. Comparisons with 4D-Var show that forecasts from EnVar analyses have either similar or better scores in the troposphere of the tropics and the winter extra-tropical region. However, in the summer extra-tropical region the medium-range forecasts from EnVar have either similar or worse scores than 4D-Var in the troposphere. In contrast, the 6 h forecasts from EnVar are significantly better than 4D-Var relative to radiosonde observations for both periods and in all regions. The use of 4-D versus 3-D ensemble covariances only results in small improvements in forecast quality. By contrast, the improvements from using 4D-Var versus 3D-Var are much larger. Measurement of the fit of the background and analyzed states to the observations suggests that EnVar and 4D-Var can both make better use of observations distributed over time than 3D-Var. In summary, the results from this study suggest that the EnVar approach is a viable alternative to 4D-Var, especially when the simplicity and computational efficiency of EnVar are considered. Additional research is required to understand the seasonal dependence of the difference in forecast quality between EnVar and 4D-Var in the extra-tropics.

Description: Are seasonal calving dynamics forced by buttressing from ice mélange or undercutting by melting? Outcomes from full-Stokes simulations of Store Glacier, West Greenland The Cryosphere, 8, 2353-2365, 2014 Author(s): J. Todd and P. Christoffersen We use a full-Stokes 2-D model (Elmer/Ice) to investigate the flow and calving dynamics of Store Glacier, a fast-flowing outlet glacier in West Greenland. Based on a new, subgrid-scale implementation of the crevasse depth calving criterion, we perform two sets of simulations: one to identify the primary forcing mechanisms and another to constrain future stability. We find that the mixture of icebergs and sea ice, known as ice mélange or sikussak, is principally responsible for the observed seasonal advance of the ice front. On the other hand, the effect of submarine melting on the calving rate of Store Glacier appears to be limited. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the glacier's calving dynamics are sensitive to seasonal perturbation, but are stable on interannual timescales due to the strong topographic control on the flow regime. Our results shed light on the dynamics of calving glaciers and may help explain why neighbouring glaciers do not necessarily respond synchronously to changes in atmospheric and oceanic forcing.

Description: Deglaciation of the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia, in the 21st century observed with ASTER satellite imagery and aerial photography The Cryosphere, 8, 2367-2379, 2014 Author(s): M. Shahgedanova, G. Nosenko, S. Kutuzov, O. Rototaeva, and T. Khromova Changes in the map area of 498 glaciers located on the Main Caucasus ridge (MCR) and on Mt. Elbrus in the Greater Caucasus Mountains (Russia and Georgia) were assessed using multispectral ASTER and panchromatic Landsat imagery with 15 m spatial resolution in 1999/2001 and 2010/2012. Changes in recession rates of glacier snouts between 1987–2001 and 2001–2010 were investigated using aerial photography and ASTER imagery for a sub-sample of 44 glaciers. In total, glacier area decreased by 4.7 ± 2.1% or 19.2 ± 8.7 km 2 from 407.3 ± 5.4 km 2 to 388.1 ± 5.2 km 2 . Glaciers located in the central and western MCR lost 13.4 ± 7.3 km 2 (4.7 ± 2.5%) in total or 8.5 km 2 (5.0 ± 2.4%) and 4.9 km 2 (4.1 ± 2.7%) respectively. Glaciers on Mt. Elbrus, although located at higher elevations, lost 5.8 ± 1.4 km 2 (4.9 ± 1.2%) of their total area. The recession rates of valley glacier termini increased between 1987–2000/01 and 2000/01–2010 (2000 for the western MCR and 2001 for the central MCR and Mt.~Elbrus) from 3.8 ± 0.8, 3.2 ± 0.9 and 8.3 ± 0.8 m yr −1 to 11.9 ± 1.1, 8.7 ± 1.1 and 14.1 ± 1.1 m yr −1 in the central and western MCR and on Mt. Elbrus respectively. The highest rate of increase in glacier termini retreat was registered on the southern slope of the central MCR where it has tripled. A positive trend in summer temperatures forced glacier recession, and strong positive temperature anomalies in 1998, 2006, and 2010 contributed to the enhanced loss of ice. An increase in accumulation season precipitation observed in the northern MCR since the mid-1980s has not compensated for the effects of summer warming while the negative precipitation anomalies, observed on the southern slope of the central MCR in the 1990s, resulted in stronger glacier wastage.

Description: Glacier-like forms on Mars The Cryosphere, 8, 2047-2061, 2014 Author(s): B. Hubbard, C. Souness, and S. Brough More than 1300 glacier-like forms (GLFs) are located in Mars' mid-latitudes. These GLFs are predominantly composed of ice–dust mixtures and are visually similar to terrestrial valley glaciers, showing signs of downhill viscous deformation and an expanded former extent. However, several fundamental aspects of their behavior are virtually unknown, including temporal and spatial variations in mass balance, ice motion, landscape erosion and deposition, and hydrology. Here, we investigate the physical glaciology of martian GLFs. We use satellite images of specific examples and case studies to build on existing knowledge relating to (i) GLF current and former extent, exemplified via a GLF located in Phlegra Montes; (ii) indicators of GLF motion, focusing on the presence of surface crevasses on several GLFs; (iii) processes of GLF debris transfer, focusing on mapping and interpreting boulder trains on one GLF located in Protonilus Mensae, the analysis of which suggests a best-estimate mean GLF flow speed of 7.5 mm a −1 ; and (iv) GLF hydrology, focusing on supra-GLF gulley networks. On the basis of this information, we summarize the current state of knowledge of the glaciology of martian GLFs and identify future research avenues.

Description: Modeling the elastic transmission of tidal stresses to great distances inland in channelized ice streams The Cryosphere, 8, 2007-2029, 2014 Author(s): J. Thompson, M. Simons, and V. C. Tsai Geodetic surveys suggest that ocean tides can modulate the motion of Antarctic ice streams, even at stations many tens of kilometers inland from the grounding line. These surveys suggest that ocean tidal stresses can perturb ice stream motion at distances about an order of magnitude farther inland than tidal flexure of the ice stream alone. Recent models exploring the role of tidal perturbations in basal shear stress are primarily one- or two-dimensional, with the impact of the ice stream margins either ignored or parameterized. Here, we use two- and three-dimensional finite-element modeling to investigate transmission of tidal stresses in ice streams and the impact of considering more realistic, three-dimensional ice stream geometries. Using Rutford Ice Stream as a real-world comparison, we demonstrate that the assumption that elastic tidal stresses in ice streams propagate large distances inland fails for channelized glaciers due to an intrinsic, exponential decay in the stress caused by resistance at the ice stream margins. This behavior is independent of basal conditions beneath the ice stream and cannot be fit to observations using either elastic or nonlinear viscoelastic rheologies without nearly complete decoupling of the ice stream from its lateral margins. Our results suggest that a mechanism external to the ice stream is necessary to explain the tidal modulation of stresses far upstream of the grounding line for narrow ice streams. We propose a hydrologic model based on time-dependent variability in till strength to explain transmission of tidal stresses inland of the grounding line. This conceptual model can reproduce observations from Rutford Ice Stream.

Description: Fluctuations of a Greenlandic tidewater glacier driven by changes in atmospheric forcing: observations and modelling of Kangiata Nunaata Sermia, 1859–present The Cryosphere, 8, 2031-2045, 2014 Author(s): J. M. Lea, D. W. F. Mair, F. M. Nick, B. R. Rea, D. van As, M. Morlighem, P. W. Nienow, and A. Weidick Many tidewater glaciers in Greenland are known to have undergone significant retreat during the last century following their Little Ice Age maxima. Where it is possible to reconstruct glacier change over this period, they provide excellent records for comparison to climate records, as well as calibration/validation for numerical models. These glacier change records therefore allow for tests of numerical models that seek to simulate tidewater glacier behaviour over multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here we present a detailed record of behaviour from Kangiata Nunaata Sermia (KNS), SW Greenland, between 1859 and 2012, and compare it against available oceanographic and atmospheric temperature data between 1871 and 2012. We also use these records to evaluate the ability of a well-established one-dimensional flow-band model to replicate behaviour for the observation period. The record of terminus change demonstrates that KNS has advanced/retreated in phase with atmosphere and ocean climate anomalies averaged over multi-annual to decadal timescales. Results from an ensemble of model runs demonstrate that observed dynamics can be replicated. Model runs that provide a reasonable match to observations always require a significant atmospheric forcing component, but do not necessarily require an oceanic forcing component. Although the importance of oceanic forcing cannot be discounted, these results demonstrate that changes in atmospheric forcing are likely to be a primary driver of the terminus fluctuations of KNS from 1859 to 2012. We propose that the detail and length of the record presented makes KNS an ideal site for model validation exercises investigating links between climate, calving rates, and tidewater glacier dynamics.

Description: Corrigendum to "Breeding and predictability in the baroclinic rotating annulus using a perfect model" published in Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 15, 469–487, 2008 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 359-359, 2011 Author(s): R. M. B. Young and P. L. Read No abstract available.

Description: Strategies for coupling global and limited-area ensemble Kalman filter assimilation Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 415-430, 2011 Author(s): D. Merkova, I. Szunyogh, and E. Ott This paper compares the forecast performance of four strategies for coupling global and limited area data assimilation: three strategies propagate information from the global to the limited area process, while the fourth strategy feeds back information from the limited area to the global process. All four strategies are formulated in the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) framework. Numerical experiments are carried out with the model component of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM). The limited area domain is an extended North-America region that includes part of the north-east Pacific. The GFS is integrated at horizontal resolution T62 (about 150 km in the mid-latitudes), while the RSM is integrated at horizontal resolution 48 km. Experiments are carried out both under the perfect model hypothesis and in a realistic setting. The coupling strategies are evaluated by comparing their deterministic forecast performance at 12-h and 48-h lead times. The results suggest that the limited area data assimilation system has the potential to enhance the forecasts at 12-h lead time in the limited area domain at the synoptic and sub-synoptic scales (in the global wave number range of about 10 to 40). There is a clear indication that between the forecast performance of the different coupling strategies those that cycle the limited area assimilation process produce the most accurate forecasts. In the realistic setting, at 12-h forecast time the limited area systems produce more modest improvements compared to the global system than under the perfect model hypothesis, and at 48-h forecast time the global forecasts are more accurate than the limited area forecasts.

Description: Spectral methods for internal waves: indistinguishable density profiles and double-humped solitary waves Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 351-358, 2011 Author(s): M. Dunphy, C. Subich, and M. Stastna Internal solitary waves are widely observed in both the oceans and large lakes. They can be described by a variety of mathematical theories, covering the full spectrum from first order asymptotic theory (i.e. Korteweg-de Vries, or KdV, theory), through higher order extensions of weakly nonlinear-weakly nonhydrostatic theory, to fully nonlinear-weakly nonhydrostatic theories and finally exact theory based on the Dubreil-Jacotin-Long (DJL) equation that is formally equivalent to the full set of Euler equations. We discuss how spectral and pseudospectral methods allow for the computation of novel phenomena in both approximate and exact theories. In particular we construct markedly different density profiles for which the coefficients in the KdV theory are very nearly identical. These two density profiles yield qualitatively different behaviour for both exact, or fully nonlinear, waves computed using the DJL equation and in dynamic simulations of the time dependent Euler equations. For exact, DJL, theory we compute exact solitary waves with two-scales, or so-called double-humped waves.

Description: A nonlinear method of removing harmonic noise in geophysical data Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 367-379, 2011 Author(s): Y. Jeng and C.-S. Chen A nonlinear, adaptive method to remove the harmonic noise that commonly resides in geophysical data is proposed in this study. This filtering method is based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition algorithm in conjunction with the logarithmic transform. We present a synthetic model study to investigate the capability of signal reconstruction from the decomposed data, and compare the results with those derived from other 2-D adaptive filters. Applications to the real seismic data acquired by using an ocean bottom seismograph and to a shot gather of the ground penetrating radar demonstrate the robustness of this method. Our work proposes a concept that instead of Fourier-based approaches, the harmonic noise removal in geophysical data can be achieved effectively by using an alternative nonlinear adaptive data analysis method, which has been applied extensively in other scientific studies.

Description: Comparison of correlation analysis techniques for irregularly sampled time series Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 389-404, 2011 Author(s): K. Rehfeld, N. Marwan, J. Heitzig, and J. Kurths Geoscientific measurements often provide time series with irregular time sampling, requiring either data reconstruction (interpolation) or sophisticated methods to handle irregular sampling. We compare the linear interpolation technique and different approaches for analyzing the correlation functions and persistence of irregularly sampled time series, as Lomb-Scargle Fourier transformation and kernel-based methods. In a thorough benchmark test we investigate the performance of these techniques. All methods have comparable root mean square errors (RMSEs) for low skewness of the inter-observation time distribution. For high skewness, very irregular data, interpolation bias and RMSE increase strongly. We find a 40 % lower RMSE for the lag-1 autocorrelation function (ACF) for the Gaussian kernel method vs. the linear interpolation scheme,in the analysis of highly irregular time series. For the cross correlation function (CCF) the RMSE is then lower by 60 %. The application of the Lomb-Scargle technique gave results comparable to the kernel methods for the univariate, but poorer results in the bivariate case. Especially the high-frequency components of the signal, where classical methods show a strong bias in ACF and CCF magnitude, are preserved when using the kernel methods. We illustrate the performances of interpolation vs. Gaussian kernel method by applying both to paleo-data from four locations, reflecting late Holocene Asian monsoon variability as derived from speleothem δ 18 O measurements. Cross correlation results are similar for both methods, which we attribute to the long time scales of the common variability. The persistence time (memory) is strongly overestimated when using the standard, interpolation-based, approach. Hence, the Gaussian kernel is a reliable and more robust estimator with significant advantages compared to other techniques and suitable for large scale application to paleo-data.

Description: The surface energy balance of a polygonal tundra site in northern Siberia – Part 2: Winter The Cryosphere, 5, 509-524, 2011 Author(s): M. Langer, S. Westermann, S. Muster, K. Piel, and J. Boike In this study, we present the winter time surface energy balance at a polygonal tundra site in northern Siberia based on independent measurements of the net radiation, the sensible heat flux and the ground heat flux from two winter seasons. The latent heat flux is inferred from measurements of the atmospheric turbulence characteristics and a model approach. The long-wave radiation is found to be the dominant factor in the surface energy balance. The radiative losses are balanced to about 60 % by the ground heat flux and almost 40 % by the sensible heat fluxes, whereas the contribution of the latent heat flux is small. The main controlling factors of the surface energy budget are the snow cover, the cloudiness and the soil temperature gradient. Large spatial differences in the surface energy balance are observed between tundra soils and a small pond. The ground heat flux released at a freezing pond is by a factor of two higher compared to the freezing soil, whereas large differences in net radiation between the pond and soil are only observed at the end of the winter period. Differences in the surface energy balance between the two winter seasons are found to be related to differences in snow depth and cloud cover which strongly affect the temperature evolution and the freeze-up at the investigated pond.

Description: Brief communication "On one mechanism of low frequency variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current" Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 361-365, 2011 Author(s): O. G. Derzho and B. de Young In this paper we present a simple analytical model for low frequency and large scale variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The physical mechanism of the variability is related to temporal and spatial variations of the cyclonic mean flow (ACC) due to circularly propagating nonlinear barotropic Rossby wave trains. It is shown that the Rossby wave train is a fundamental mode, trapped between the major fronts in the ACC. The Rossby waves are predicted to rotate with a particular angular velocity that depends on the magnitude and width of the mean current. The spatial structure of the rotating pattern, including its zonal wave number, is defined by the specific form of the stream function-vorticity relation. The similarity between the simulated patterns and the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) is highlighted. The model can predict the observed sequence of warm and cold patches in the ACW as well as its zonal number.

Description: A semi-phenomenological approach to explain the event-size distribution of the Drossel-Schwabl forest-fire model Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 381-388, 2011 Author(s): S. Hergarten and R. Krenn We present a novel approach to explain the complex scaling behavior of the Drossel-Schwabl forest-fire model in two dimensions. Clusters of trees are characterized by their size and perimeter only, whereas spatial correlations are neglected. Coalescence of clusters is restricted to clusters of similar sizes. Our approach derives the value of the scaling exponent τ of the event size distribution directly from the scaling of the accessible perimeter of percolation clusters. We obtain τ = 1.19 in the limit of infinite growth rate, in perfect agreement with numerical results. Furthermore, our approach predicts the unusual transition from a power law to an exponential decay even quantitatively, while the exponential decay at large event sizes itself is reproduced only qualitatively.

Description: Double rank-ordering technique of ROMA (Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis) for multifractal fluctuations featuring multiple regimes of scales Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 405-414, 2011 Author(s): S. W. Y. Tam and T. Chang Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis (ROMA), a technique capable of deciphering the multifractal characteristics of intermittent fluctuations, was originally applied to the results of a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation. Application of ROMA to measured fluctuations in the auroral zone, due to the dominant physical effects changing from kinetic to MHD as the scale increases, requires an additional level of rank-ordering in order to divide the domain of scales into regimes. An algorithm for the additional step in this double rank-ordering technique is discussed, and is demonstrated in the application to the electric field fluctuations in the auroral zone as an example. As a result of the double rank-ordering, ROMA is able to take into account the nonlinear crossover behavior characterized by the multiple regimes of time scales by providing a scaling variable and a scaling function that are global to all the time scales.

Description: A full Stokes ice flow model for the vicinity of Dome Fuji, Antarctica, with induced anisotropy and fabric evolution The Cryosphere, 5, 495-508, 2011 Author(s): H. Seddik, R. Greve, T. Zwinger, and L. Placidi A three-dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled ice flow model with induced anisotropy has been applied to a ~200 × 200 km domain around the Dome Fuji drill site, Antarctica. The model ("Elmer/Ice") is based on the open-source multi-physics package Elmer ( http://www.csc.fi/elmer/ ) and solves the full Stokes equations. Flow-induced anisotropy in ice is accounted for by an implementation of the C ontinuum-mechanical, A nisotropic F low model, based on an anisotropic F low E nhancement factor ("CAFFE model"). Steady-state simulations for present-day climate conditions are conducted. The main findings are: (i) the flow regime at Dome Fuji is a complex superposition of vertical compression, horizontal extension and bed-parallel shear; (ii) for an assumed geothermal heat flux of 60 mW m −2 the basal temperature at Dome Fuji reaches the pressure melting point and the basal melting rate is ~0.35 mm a −1 ; (iii) in agreement with observational data, the fabric shows a strong single maximum at Dome Fuji, and the age of the ice is decreased compared to an isotropic scenario; (iv) as a consequence of spatially variable basal melting conditions, the basal age tends to be smaller where the ice is thicker and larger where the ice is thinner. The latter result is of great relevance for the consideration of a future drill site in the area.

Description: Positive geothermal anomalies in oceanic crust of Cretaceous age offshore Kamchatka Solid Earth Discussions, 3, 453-476, 2011 Author(s): G. Delisle Heat flow measurements were carried out in 2009 offshore Kamchatka during the German-Russian joint-expedition KALMAR. An area with elevated heat flow in oceanic crust of Cretaceous age – detected ~30 years ago in the course of several Russian heat flow surveys – was revisited. One previous interpretation postulated anomalous lithospheric conditions or a connection between a postulated mantle plume at great depth (〉 200 km) as the source for the observed high heat flow. However, the positive heat flow anomaly – as our bathymetric data show – is closely associated with the fragmentation of the western flank of the Meiji Seamount into a horst and graben structure, initiated during descend of the oceanic crust into the subduction zone offshore Kamchatka. This paper offers an alternative interpretation, which connects high heat flow primarily with natural convection of fluids in the fragmented rock mass and, as a potential additional factor, high rates of erosion, for which evidence is available from our collected bathymetric image. Given high erosion rates, warm rock material at depth rises to nearer the sea floor, where it cools and causes temporary elevated heat flow.

Description: Metamorphic history and geodynamic significance of the Early Cretaceous Sabzevar granulites (Sabzevar structural zone, NE Iran) Solid Earth Discussions, 3, 477-526, 2011 Author(s): M. Nasrabady, F. Rossetti, T. Theye, and G. Vignaroli The Iranian ophiolites are part of the vast orogenic suture zones that mark the Alpine-Himalayan convergence zone. Few petrological and geochronological data are available from these ophiolitic domains, hampering a full assessment of the timing and regimes of subduction zone metamorphism and orogenic construction in the region. This paper describes texture, geochemistry and the pressure-temperature path of the Early Cretaceous granulites that occur within the Tertiary Sabzevar suture zone of NE Iran. The geochemical data set document that the granulites are remnants of a MORB-type oceanic crust and thus of a (Early Cretaceous ?) back-arc basin formed in the upper plate of the Neotethyan subduction and thus interpreted as portions of a dismembered dynamothermal sole formed during oceanic subduction. The metamorphic history of the granulites suggests an anticlockwise pressure-temperature loop, compatible with burial in a hot subduction zone followed by cooling during exhumation. This is interpreted as the evidence of a nascent subduction zone formed at the expenses of hot and hence young oceanic lithosphere. These data point to diachronous and independent tectonic evolutions of the different ophiolitic domains of central Iran, for which a growing heterogeneity in the timing of metamorphic equilibration and of pressure-temperature paths can be expected with further investigations.

Description: Scale-dependent measurement and analysis of ground surface temperature variability in alpine terrain The Cryosphere, 5, 431-443, 2011 Author(s): S. Gubler, J. Fiddes, M. Keller, and S. Gruber Measurements of environmental variables are often used to validate and calibrate physically-based models. Depending on their application, the models are used at different scales, ranging from few meters to tens of kilometers. Environmental variables can vary strongly within the grid cells of these models. Validating a model with a single measurement is therefore delicate and susceptible to induce bias in further model applications. To address the question of uncertainty associated with scale in permafrost models, we present data of 390 spatially-distributed ground surface temperature measurements recorded in terrain of high topographic variability in the Swiss Alps. We illustrate a way to program, deploy and refind a large number of measurement devices efficiently, and present a strategy to reduce data loss reported in earlier studies. Data after the first year of deployment is presented. The measurements represent the variability of ground surface temperatures at two different scales ranging from few meters to some kilometers. On the coarser scale, the dependence of mean annual ground surface temperature on elevation, slope, aspect and ground cover type is modelled with a multiple linear regression model. Sampled mean annual ground surface temperatures vary from −4 °C to 5 °C within an area of approximately 16 km 2 subject to elevational differences of approximately 1000 m. The measurements also indicate that mean annual ground surface temperatures vary up to 6 °C (i.e., from −2 °C to 4 °C) even within an elevational band of 300 m. Furthermore, fine-scale variations can be high (up to 2.5 °C) at distances of less than 14 m in homogeneous terrain. The effect of this high variability of an environmental variable on model validation and applications in alpine regions is discussed.

Description: Large eddy simulation of sediment transport over rippled beds Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, 1169-1184, 2014 Author(s): J. C. Harris and S. T. Grilli Wave-induced boundary layer (BL) flows over sandy rippled bottoms are studied using a numerical model that applies a one-way coupling of a "far-field" inviscid flow model to a "near-field" large eddy simulation (LES) Navier–Stokes (NS) model. The incident inviscid velocity and pressure fields force the LES, in which near-field, wave-induced, turbulent bottom BL flows are simulated. A sediment suspension and transport model is embedded within the coupled flow model. The numerical implementation of the various models has been reported elsewhere, where we showed that the LES was able to accurately simulate both mean flow and turbulent statistics for oscillatory BL flows over a flat, rough bed. Here we show that the model accurately predicts the mean velocity fields and suspended sediment concentration for oscillatory flows over full-scale vortex ripples. Tests show that surface roughness has a significant effect on the results. Beyond increasing our insight into wave-induced oscillatory bottom BL physics, sophisticated coupled models of sediment transport such as that presented have the potential to make quantitative predictions of sediment transport and erosion/accretion around partly buried objects in the bottom, which is important for a vast array of bottom deployed instrumentation and other practical ocean engineering problems.

Description: Dependence of sandpile avalanche frequency–size distribution on coverage extent and compactness of embedded toppling threshold heterogeneity: implications for the variation of Gutenberg–Richter b value Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, 1185-1193, 2014 Author(s): L.-Y. Chiao and Q. Liu The effects of the spatiotemporal evolution of failure threshold heterogeneity on the dynamics of fault criticality, and thus on regional seismogenesis, have attracted strong interest in the field of regional seismotectonics. The heterogeneity might be a manifestation of the macroscopic distribution and multiscale strength variation of asperities, the distinct regional stress level, and (microscopically) heterogeneous fault surface roughness or friction regimes. In this study, rather than attempting to mimic the complex microscale slipping physics on a fault surface, sandpile cellular automata were implemented with a straightforward toppling rule. The objective is to examine the influence of distinct configurations of the embedded heterogeneous toppling threshold field on the global system avalanche event statistics. The examination results revealed that increasing the coverage extent and decreasing the compactness of the heterogeneous failure threshold, rather than the magnitude, range of contrast, diversity, or the geometric configuration of the threshold heterogeneity, leads to a systematic increase in the scaling exponent of the avalanche event power law statistics, implying the importance of mutual interaction among toppling sites with distinct thresholds. For tectonic provinces with differing stress regimes evolving spatio temporally, it is postulated that the distinct extent and compactness of the heterogeneous failure threshold are critical factors that manifest in the reported dynamic variations of seismicity scaling.

Description: A new approach to mapping permafrost and change incorporating uncertainties in ground conditions and climate projections The Cryosphere, 8, 2177-2194, 2014 Author(s): Y. Zhang, I. Olthof, R. Fraser, and S. A. Wolfe Spatially detailed information on permafrost distribution and change with climate is important for land use planning, infrastructure development, and environmental assessments. However, the required soil and surficial geology maps in the North are coarse, and projected climate scenarios vary widely. Considering these uncertainties, we propose a new approach to mapping permafrost distribution and change by integrating remote sensing data, field measurements, and a process-based model. Land cover types from satellite imagery are used to capture the general land conditions and to improve the resolution of existing permafrost maps. For each land cover type, field observations are used to estimate the probabilities of different ground conditions. A process-based model is used to quantify the evolution of permafrost for each ground condition under three representative climate scenarios (low, medium, and high warming). From the model results, the probability of permafrost occurrence and the most likely permafrost conditions are determined. We apply this approach at 20 m resolution to a large area in Northwest Territories, Canada. Mapped permafrost conditions are in agreement with field observations and other studies. The data requirements, model robustness, and computation time are reasonable, and this approach may serve as a practical means to mapping permafrost and changes at high resolution in other regions.

Description: Seasonal cycle and long-term trend of solar energy fluxes through Arctic sea ice The Cryosphere, 8, 2219-2233, 2014 Author(s): S. Arndt and M. Nicolaus Arctic sea ice has not only decreased in volume during the last decades, but has also changed in its physical properties towards a thinner and more seasonal ice cover. These changes strongly impact the energy budget, and might affect the ice-associated ecosystems. In this study, we quantify solar shortwave fluxes through sea ice for the entire Arctic during all seasons. To focus on sea-ice-related processes, we exclude fluxes through open water, scaling linearly with sea ice concentration. We present a new parameterization of light transmittance through sea ice for all seasons as a function of variable sea ice properties. The maximum monthly mean solar heat flux under the ice of 30 × 10 5 Jm −2 occurs in June, enough heat to melt 0.3 m of sea ice. Furthermore, our results suggest that 96% of the annual solar heat input through sea ice occurs during only a 4-month period from May to August. Applying the new parameterization to remote sensing and reanalysis data from 1979 to 2011, we find an increase in transmitted light of 1.5% yr −1 for all regions. This corresponds to an increase in potential sea ice bottom melt of 63% over the 33-year study period. Sensitivity studies reveal that the results depend strongly on the timing of melt onset and the correct classification of ice types. Assuming 2 weeks earlier melt onset, the annual transmitted solar radiation to the upper ocean increases by 20%. Continuing the observed transition from a mixed multi-year/first-year sea ice cover to a seasonal ice cover results in an increase in light transmittance by an additional 18%.

Description: Instability and change detection in exponential families and generalized linear models, with a study of Atlantic tropical storms Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, 1133-1143, 2014 Author(s): Y. Lu and S. Chatterjee Exponential family statistical distributions, including the well-known normal, binomial, Poisson, and exponential distributions, are overwhelmingly used in data analysis. In the presence of covariates, an exponential family distributional assumption for the response random variables results in a generalized linear model. However, it is rarely ensured that the parameters of the assumed distributions are stable through the entire duration of the data collection process. A failure of stability leads to nonsmoothness and nonlinearity in the physical processes that result in the data. In this paper, we propose testing for stability of parameters of exponential family distributions and generalized linear models. A rejection of the hypothesis of stable parameters leads to change detection. We derive the related likelihood ratio test statistic. We compare the performance of this test statistic to the popular normal distributional assumption dependent cumulative sum (Gaussian CUSUM) statistic in change detection problems. We study Atlantic tropical storms using the techniques developed here, so to understand whether the nature of these tropical storms has remained stable over the last few decades.

Description: Post-LIA glacier changes along a latitudinal transect in the Central Italian Alps The Cryosphere, 8, 2235-2252, 2014 Author(s): R. Scotti, F. Brardinoni, and G. B. Crosta The variability of glacier response to atmospheric temperature rise in different topo-climatic settings is still a matter of debate. To address this question in the Central Italian Alps, we compile a post-LIA (Little Ice Age) multitemporal glacier inventory (1860–1954–1990–2003–2007) along a latitudinal transect that originates north of the continental divide in the Livigno Mountains and extends south through the Disgrazia and Orobie ranges, encompassing continental-to-maritime climatic settings. In these sub-regions, we examine the area change of 111 glaciers. Overall, the total glacierized area has declined from 34.1 to 10.1 km 2 , with a substantial increase in the number of small glaciers due to fragmentation. The average annual decrease (AAD) in glacier area has risen by about 1 order of magnitude from 1860–1990 (Livigno: 0.45; Orobie: 0.42; and Disgrazia: 0.39 % a −1 ) to 1990–2007 (Livigno: 3.08; Orobie: 2.44; and Disgrazia: 2.27 % a −1 ). This ranking changes when considering glaciers smaller than 0.5 km 2 only (i.e., we remove the confounding caused by large glaciers in Disgrazia), so that post-1990 AAD follows the latitudinal gradient and Orobie glaciers stand out (Livigno: 4.07; Disgrazia: 3.57; and Orobie: 2.47 % a −1 ). More recent (2007–2013) field-based mass balances in three selected small glaciers confirm post-1990 trends showing the consistently highest retreat in continental Livigno and minimal area loss in maritime Orobie, with Disgrazia displaying transitional behavior. We argue that the recent resilience of glaciers in Orobie is a consequence of their decoupling from synoptic atmospheric temperature trends, a decoupling that arises from the combination of local topographic configuration (i.e., deep, north-facing cirques) and high winter precipitation, which ensures high snow-avalanche supply, as well as high summer shading and sheltering. Our hypothesis is further supported by the lack of correlations between glacier change and glacier attributes in Orobie, as well as by the higher variability in ELA,sub〉0 positioning, post-LIA glacier change, and interannual mass balances, as we move southward along the transect.

Description: Melting trends over the Greenland ice sheet (1958–2009) from spaceborne microwave data and regional climate models The Cryosphere, 5, 359-375, 2011 Author(s): X. Fettweis, M. Tedesco, M. van den Broeke, and J. Ettema To study near-surface melt changes over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) since 1979, melt extent estimates from two regional climate models were compared with those obtained from spaceborne microwave brightness temperatures using two different remote sensing algorithms. The results from the two models were consistent with those obtained with the remote sensing algorithms at both daily and yearly time scales, encouraging the use of the models for analyzing melting trends before the satellite era (1958–1979), when forcing data is available. Differences between satellite-derived and model-simulated results still occur and are used here to identify (i) biases in the snow models (notably in the albedo parametrization, in the thickness of a snow layer, in the maximum liquid water content within the snowpack and in the snowfall impacting the bare ice appearance in summer) and (ii) limitations in the use of passive microwave data for snowmelt detection at the edge of the ice sheet due to mixed pixel effect (e.g., tundra or rock nearby the ice sheet). The results from models and spaceborne microwave sensors confirm a significant (p-value = 0.01) increase in GrIS surface melting since 1979. The melt extent recorded over the last years (1998, 2003, 2005 and 2007) is unprecedented in the last 50 yr with the cumulated melt area in the 2000's being, on the average, twice that of the 1980's.

Description: Rank ordering multifractal analysis of the auroral electrojet index Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 277-285, 2011 Author(s): G. Consolini and P. De Michelis In the second half of the 90s interest grew on the complex features of the magnetospheric dynamics in response to solar wind changes. An important series of papers were published on the occurrence of chaos, turbulence and complexity. Among them, particularly interesting was the study of the bursty and fractal/multifractal character of the high latitude energy release during geomagnetic storms, which was evidenced by analyzing the features of the Auroral Electrojet (AE) indices. Recently, the multifractal features of the small time-scale increments of AE-indices have been criticized in favor of a more simple fractal behavior. This is particularly true for the scaling features of the probability density functions (PDFs) of the AE index increments. Here, after a brief review of the nature of the fractal/multifractal features of the magnetospheric response to solar wind changes, we investigate the multifractal nature of the scaling features of the AE index increments PDFs using the Rank Ordering Multifractal Analysis (ROMA) technique. The ROMA results clearly demonstrate the existence of a hierarchy of scaling indices, depending on the increment amplitude, for the data collapsing of PDFs relative to increments at different time scales. Our results confirm the previous results by Consolini et al. (1996) and the more recent results by Rypdal and Rypdal (2010).

Description: Isotope hydrological studies of the perennial ice deposit of Saarhalle, Mammuthöhle, Dachstein Mts, Austria The Cryosphere, 5, 291-298, 2011 Author(s): Z. Kern, I. Fórizs, R. Pavuza, M. Molnár, and B. Nagy A 5.28 m-long ice core was extracted from a major cave ice body in the Mammuthöhle cave system. The upper ~1.2 m of ice most likely originate from precipitation fallen before the 1960s (based on

Description: Co-registration and bias corrections of satellite elevation data sets for quantifying glacier thickness change The Cryosphere, 5, 271-290, 2011 Author(s): C. Nuth and A. Kääb There are an increasing number of digital elevation models (DEMs) available worldwide for deriving elevation differences over time, including vertical changes on glaciers. Most of these DEMs are heavily post-processed or merged, so that physical error modelling becomes difficult and statistical error modelling is required instead. We propose a three-step methodological framework for assessing and correcting DEMs to quantify glacier elevation changes: (i) remove DEM shifts, (ii) check for elevation-dependent biases, and (iii) check for higher-order, sensor-specific biases. A simple, analytic and robust method to co-register elevation data is presented in regions where stable terrain is either plentiful (case study New Zealand) or limited (case study Svalbard). The method is demonstrated using the three global elevation data sets available to date, SRTM, ICESat and the ASTER GDEM, and with automatically generated DEMs from satellite stereo instruments of ASTER and SPOT5-HRS. After 3-D co-registration, significant biases related to elevation were found in some of the stereoscopic DEMs. Biases related to the satellite acquisition geometry (along/cross track) were detected at two frequencies in the automatically generated ASTER DEMs. The higher frequency bias seems to be related to satellite jitter , most apparent in the back-looking pass of the satellite. The origins of the more significant lower frequency bias is uncertain. ICESat-derived elevations are found to be the most consistent globally available elevation data set available so far. Before performing regional-scale glacier elevation change studies or mosaicking DEMs from multiple individual tiles (e.g. ASTER GDEM), we recommend to co-register all elevation data to ICESat as a global vertical reference system.

Description: Present dynamics and future prognosis of a slowly surging glacier The Cryosphere, 5, 299-313, 2011 Author(s): G. E. Flowers, N. Roux, S. Pimentel, and C. G. Schoof Glacier surges are a well-known example of an internal dynamic oscillation whose occurrence is not a direct response to the external climate forcing, but whose character (i.e. period, amplitude, mechanism) may depend on the glacier's environmental or climate setting. We examine the dynamics of a small (∼5 km 2 ) valley glacier in Yukon, Canada, where two previous surges have been photographically documented and an unusually slow surge is currently underway. To characterize the dynamics of the present surge, and to speculate on the future of this glacier, we employ a higher-order flowband model of ice dynamics with a regularized Coulomb-friction sliding law in both diagnostic and prognostic simulations. Diagnostic (force balance) calculations capture the measured ice-surface velocity profile only when non-zero basal water pressures are prescribed over the central region of the glacier, coincident with where evidence of the surge has been identified. This leads to sliding accounting for 50–100% of the total surface motion in this region. Prognostic simulations, where the glacier geometry evolves in response to a prescribed surface mass balance, reveal a significant role played by a bedrock ridge beneath the current equilibrium line of the glacier. Ice thickening occurs above the ridge in our simulations, until the net mass balance reaches sufficiently negative values. We suggest that the bedrock ridge may contribute to the propensity for surges in this glacier by promoting the development of the reservoir area during quiescence, and may permit surges to occur under more negative balance conditions than would otherwise be possible. Collectively, these results corroborate our interpretation of the current glacier flow regime as indicative of a slow surge that has been ongoing for some time, and support a relationship between surge incidence or character and the net mass balance. Our results also highlight the importance of glacier bed topography in controlling ice dynamics, as observed in many other glacier systems.

Description: New zircon data supporting models of short-lived igneous activity at 1.89 Ga in the western Skellefte District, central Fennoscandian Shield Solid Earth Discussions, 3, 355-383, 2011 Author(s): P. Skyttä, T. Hermansson, J. Andersson, and P. Weihed New U-Th-Pb zircon data (SIMS) from three intrusive phases of the Palaeoproterozoic Viterliden intrusion in the western Skellefte District, central Fennoscandian Shield, dates igneous emplacement in a narrow time interval at about 1.89 Ga. A locally occurring quartz-plagioclase porphyritic tonalite, here dated at 1889 ± 3 Ma, is, based on the new age data and field evidence, considered the youngest of the intrusive units. This supports an existing interpretation of its fault-controlled emplacement after intrusion of the dominating hornblende-tonalite units, in this study dated at 1892 ± 3 Ma. The Viterliden magmatism was synchronous with the oldest units of the Jörn type early-orogenic intrusions in the eastern part of the district (1.89–1.88 Ga; cf. Gonzàles Roldán, 2010). A U-Pb zircon age for a felsic metavolcanic rock from the hanging-wall to the Kristineberg VMS deposit, immediately south of the Viterliden intrusion, is in this study constrained in the 1.89–1.88 Ga time interval. It provides a minimum age for the Kristineberg ore deposit and suggests contemporaneous igneous/volcanic activity throughout the Skellefte District. Furthermore, it supports the view that the Skellefte Group defines a laterally continuous belt throughout this "ore district". Tentative correlation of the 1889 ± 3 Ma quartz-plagioclase porphyritic tonalite with the Kristineberg "mine porphyry", which cuts the altered ore-hosting metavolcanic rocks, further constrain the minimum age for ore deposition at 1889 ± 3 Ma. Based on the new age determinations, the Viterliden intrusion may equally well have intruded into, or locally acted as a basement for the ore-hosting Skellefte Group volcanic rocks.

Description: In-situ multispectral and bathymetric measurements over a supraglacial lake in western Greenland using a remotely controlled watercraft The Cryosphere, 5, 445-452, 2011 Author(s): M. Tedesco and N. Steiner Supraglacial lakes form from meltwater on the Greenland ice sheet in topographic depressions on the surface, affecting both surface and sub-glacial processes. As the reflectance in the visible and near-infrared regions of a column of water is modulated by its height, retrieval techniques using spaceborne remote sensing data (e.g. Landsat, MODIS) have been proposed in the literature for the detection of lakes and estimation of their volume. These techniques require basic assumptions on the spectral properties of the water as well as the bottom of the lake, among other things. In this study, we report results obtained from the analysis of concurrent in-situ multi-spectral and depth measurements collected over a supraglacial lake during early July 2010 in West Greenland (Lake Olivia, 69°36'35" N, 49°29'40" W) and aim to assess some of the underlying hypotheses in remote sensing based bathymetric approaches. In particular, we focus our attention on the analysis of the lake bottom albedo and of the water attenuation coefficient. The analysis of in-situ data (collected by means of a remotely controlled boat equipped with a GPS, a sonar and a spectrometer) highlights the exponential trend of the water-leaving reflectance with lake depth. The values of the attenuation factor obtained from in-situ data are compared with those computed using approaches proposed in the literature. Also, the values of the lake bottom albedo from in-situ measurements are compared with those obtained from the analysis of reflectance of shallow waters. Finally, we quantify the error between in-situ measured and satellite-estimated lake depth values for the lake under study.

Description: Preface Large amplitude internal waves in the coastal ocean Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 653-655, 2011 Author(s): R. Grimshaw, K. Helfrich, and A. Scotti No Abstract available.

Description: Temperature variability and offset in steep alpine rock and ice faces The Cryosphere, 5, 977-988, 2011 Author(s): A. Hasler, S. Gruber, and W. Haeberli The thermal condition of high-alpine mountain flanks can be an important determinant of climate change impact on slope stability and correspondingly down-slope hazard regimes. In this study we analyze time-series from 17 shallow temperature-depth profiles at two field sites in steep bedrock and ice. Extending earlier studies that revealed the topographic variations in temperatures, we demonstrate considerable differences of annual mean temperatures for variable surface characteristics and depths within the measured profiles. This implies that measurements and model related to compact and near-vertical bedrock temperatures may deviate considerably from conditions in the majority of bedrock slopes in mountain ranges that are usually non-vertical and fractured. For radiation-exposed faces mean annual temperatures at depth are up to 3 °C lower and permafrost is likely to exist at lower elevations than reflected by estimates based on near-vertical homogeneous cases. Retention of a thin snow cover and ventilation effects in open clefts are most likely responsible for this cooling. The measurements presented or similar data could be used in the future to support the development and testing of models related to the thermal effect of snow-cover and fractures in steep bedrock.

Description: Size distribution and structure of Barchan dune fields Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 455-467, 2011 Author(s): O. Durán, V. Schwämmle, P. G. Lind, and H. J. Herrmann Barchans are isolated mobile dunes often organized in large dune fields. Dune fields seem to present a characteristic dune size and spacing, which suggests a cooperative behavior based on dune interaction. In Duran et al. (2009), we propose that the redistribution of sand by collisions between dunes is a key element for the stability and size selection of barchan dune fields. This approach was based on a mean-field model ignoring the spatial distribution of dune fields. Here, we present a simplified dune field model that includes the spatial evolution of individual dunes as well as their interaction through sand exchange and binary collisions. As a result, the dune field evolves towards a steady state that depends on the boundary conditions. Comparing our results with measurements of Moroccan dune fields, we find that the simulated fields have the same dune size distribution as in real fields but fail to reproduce their homogeneity along the wind direction.

Description: On the influence of model physics on simulations of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice The Cryosphere, 5, 687-699, 2011 Author(s): F. Massonnet, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, M. Vancoppenolle, P. Mathiot, and C. König Beatty Two hindcast (1983–2007) simulations are performed with the global, ocean-sea ice models NEMO-LIM2 and NEMO-LIM3 driven by atmospheric reanalyses and climatologies. The two simulations differ only in their sea ice component, while all other elements of experimental design (resolution, initial conditions, atmospheric forcing) are kept identical. The main differences in the sea ice models lie in the formulation of the subgrid-scale ice thickness distribution, of the thermodynamic processes, of the sea ice salinity and of the sea ice rheology. To assess the differences in model skill over the period of investigation, we develop a set of metrics for both hemispheres, comparing the main sea ice variables (concentration, thickness and drift) to available observations and focusing on both mean state and seasonal to interannual variability. Based upon these metrics, we discuss the physical processes potentially responsible for the differences in model skill. In particular, we suggest that (i) a detailed representation of the ice thickness distribution increases the seasonal to interannual variability of ice extent, with spectacular improvement for the simulation of the recent observed summer Arctic sea ice retreats, (ii) the elastic-viscous-plastic rheology enhances the response of ice to wind stress, compared to the classical viscous-plastic approach, (iii) the grid formulation and the air-sea ice drag coefficient affect the simulated ice export through Fram Strait and the ice accumulation along the Canadian Archipelago, and (iv) both models show less skill in the Southern Ocean, probably due to the low quality of the reanalyses in this region and to the absence of important small-scale oceanic processes at the models' resolution (~1°).

Description: Combining 2-m temperature nowcasting and short range ensemble forecasting Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 903-910, 2011 Author(s): A. Kann, T. Haiden, and C. Wittmann During recent years, numerical ensemble prediction systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties of dynamical and physical processes as represented in numerical weather models. The latest generation of limited area ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPSs) allows for probabilistic forecasts at high resolution in both space and time. However, these systems still suffer from systematic deficiencies. Especially for nowcasting (0–6 h) applications the ensemble spread is smaller than the actual forecast error. This paper tries to generate probabilistic short range 2-m temperature forecasts by combining a state-of-the-art nowcasting method and a limited area ensemble system, and compares the results with statistical methods. The Integrated Nowcasting Through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system, which has been in operation at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) since 2006 (Haiden et al., 2011), provides short range deterministic forecasts at high temporal (15 min–60 min) and spatial (1 km) resolution. An INCA Ensemble (INCA-EPS) of 2-m temperature forecasts is constructed by applying a dynamical approach, a statistical approach, and a combined dynamic-statistical method. The dynamical method takes uncertainty information (i.e. ensemble variance) from the operational limited area ensemble system ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) which is running operationally at ZAMG (Wang et al., 2011). The purely statistical method assumes a well-calibrated spread-skill relation and applies ensemble spread according to the skill of the INCA forecast of the most recent past. The combined dynamic-statistical approach adapts the ensemble variance gained from ALADIN-LAEF with non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR) which yields a statistical \mbox{correction} of the first and second moment (mean bias and dispersion) for Gaussian distributed continuous variables. Validation results indicate that all three methods produce sharp and reliable probabilistic 2-m temperature forecasts. However, the statistical and combined dynamic-statistical methods slightly outperform the pure dynamical approach, mainly due to the under-dispersive behavior of ALADIN-LAEF outside the nowcasting range. The training length does not have a pronounced impact on forecast skill, but a spread re-scaling improves the forecast skill substantially. Refinements of the statistical methods yield a slight further improvement.

Description: Glacier contribution to streamflow in two headwaters of the Huasco River, Dry Andes of Chile The Cryosphere, 5, 1099-1113, 2011 Author(s): S. Gascoin, C. Kinnard, R. Ponce, S. Lhermitte, S. MacDonell, and A. Rabatel Quantitative assessment of glacier contribution to present-day streamflow is a prerequisite to the anticipation of climate change impact on water resources in the Dry Andes. In this paper we focus on two glaciated headwater catchments of the Huasco Basin (Chile, 29° S). The combination of glacier monitoring data for five glaciers (Toro 1, Toro 2, Esperanza, Guanaco, Estrecho and Ortigas) with five automatic streamflow records at sites with glacier coverage of 0.4 to 11 % allows the estimation of the mean annual glacier contribution to discharge between 2003/2004 and 2007/2008 hydrological years. In addition, direct manual measurements of glacier runoff were conducted in summer at the snouts of four glaciers, which provide the instantaneous contribution of glacier meltwater to stream runoff during summer. The results show that the mean annual glacier contribution to streamflow ranges between 3.3 and 23 %, which is greater than the glaciated fraction of the catchments. We argue that glacier contribution is partly enhanced by the effect of snowdrift from the non-glacier area to the glacier surface. Glacier mass loss is evident over the study period, with a mean of −0.84 m w.e. yr −1 for the period 2003/2004–2007/2008, and also contributes to increase glacier runoff. An El Niño episode in 2002 resulted in high snow accumulation, modifying the hydrological regime and probably reducing the glacier contribution in favor of seasonal snowmelt during the subsequent 2002/2003 hydrological year. At the hourly timescale, summertime glacier contributions are highly variable in space and time, revealing large differences in effective melting rates between glaciers and glacierets (from 1 mm w.e. h −1 to 6 mm w.e. h −1 ).

Description: Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by surface mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere, 6, 255-272, 2012 Author(s): M. M. Helsen, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, and J. Oerlemans It is notoriously difficult to couple surface mass balance (SMB) results from climate models to the changing geometry of an ice sheet model. This problem is traditionally avoided by using only accumulation from a climate model, and parameterizing the meltwater run-off as a function of temperature, which is often related to surface elevation ( H s ). In this study, we propose a new strategy to calculate SMB, to allow a direct adjustment of SMB to a change in ice sheet topography and/or a change in climate forcing. This method is based on elevational gradients in the SMB field as computed by a regional climate model. Separate linear relations are derived for ablation and accumulation, using pairs of H s and SMB within a minimum search radius. The continuously adjusting SMB forcing is consistent with climate model forcing fields, also for initially non-glaciated areas in the peripheral areas of an ice sheet. When applied to an asynchronous coupled ice sheet – climate model setup, this method circumvents traditional temperature lapse rate assumptions. Here we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Experiments using both steady-state forcing and glacial-interglacial forcing result in realistic ice sheet reconstructions.

Description: Estimating ice phenology on large northern lakes from AMSR-E: algorithm development and application to Great Bear Lake and Great Slave Lake, Canada The Cryosphere, 6, 235-254, 2012 Author(s): K.-K. Kang, C. R. Duguay, and S. E. L. Howell Time series of brightness temperatures ( T B ) from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) are examined to determine ice phenology variables on the two largest lakes of northern Canada: Great Bear Lake (GBL) and Great Slave Lake (GSL). T B measurements from the 18.7, 23.8, 36.5, and 89.0 GHz channels (H- and V- polarization) are compared to assess their potential for detecting freeze-onset/melt-onset and ice-on/ice-off dates on both lakes. The 18.7 GHz (H-pol) channel is found to be the most suitable for estimating these ice dates as well as the duration of the ice cover and ice-free seasons. A new algorithm is proposed using this channel and applied to map all ice phenology variables on GBL and GSL over seven ice seasons (2002–2009). Analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of each variable at the pixel level reveals that: (1) both freeze-onset and ice-on dates occur on average about one week earlier on GBL than on GSL (Day of Year (DY) 318 and 333 for GBL; DY 328 and 343 for GSL); (2) the freeze-up process or freeze duration (freeze-onset to ice-on) takes a slightly longer amount of time on GBL than on GSL (about 1 week on average); (3) melt-onset and ice-off dates occur on average one week and approximately four weeks later, respectively, on GBL (DY 143 and 183 for GBL; DY 135 and 157 for GSL); (4) the break-up process or melt duration (melt-onset to ice-off) lasts on average about three weeks longer on GBL; and (5) ice cover duration estimated from each individual pixel is on average about three weeks longer on GBL compared to its more southern counterpart, GSL. A comparison of dates for several ice phenology variables derived from other satellite remote sensing products (e.g. NOAA Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS), QuikSCAT, and Canadian Ice Service Database) show that, despite its relatively coarse spatial resolution, AMSR-E 18.7 GHz provides a viable means for monitoring of ice phenology on large northern lakes.

Description: Spatial patterns of linear and nonparametric long-term trends in Baltic sea-level variability Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 95-111, 2012 Author(s): R. V. Donner, R. Ehrcke, S. M. Barbosa, J. Wagner, J. F. Donges, and J. Kurths The study of long-term trends in tide gauge data is important for understanding the present and future risk of changes in sea-level variability for coastal zones, particularly with respect to the ongoing debate on climate change impacts. Traditionally, most corresponding analyses have exclusively focused on trends in mean sea-level. However, such studies are not able to provide sufficient information about changes in the full probability distribution (especially in the more extreme quantiles). As an alternative, in this paper we apply quantile regression (QR) for studying changes in arbitrary quantiles of sea-level variability. For this purpose, we chose two different QR approaches and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different settings. In particular, traditional linear QR poses very restrictive assumptions that are often not met in reality. For monthly data from 47 tide gauges from along the Baltic Sea coast, the spatial patterns of quantile trends obtained in linear and nonparametric (spline-based) frameworks display marked differences, which need to be understood in order to fully assess the impact of future changes in sea-level variability on coastal areas. In general, QR demonstrates that the general variability of Baltic sea-level has increased over the last decades. Linear quantile trends estimated for sliding windows in time reveal a wide-spread acceleration of trends in the median, but only localised changes in the rates of changes in the lower and upper quantiles.

Description: Large surface meltwater discharge from the Kangerlussuaq sector of the Greenland ice sheet during the record-warm year 2010 explained by detailed energy balance observations The Cryosphere, 6, 199-209, 2012 Author(s): D. van As, A. L. Hubbard, B. Hasholt, A. B. Mikkelsen, M. R. van den Broeke, and R. S. Fausto This study uses data from six on-ice weather stations, calibrated MODIS-derived albedo and proglacial river gauging measurements to drive and validate an energy balance model. We aim to quantify the record-setting positive temperature anomaly in 2010 and its effect on mass balance and runoff from the Kangerlussuaq sector of the Greenland ice sheet. In 2010, the average temperature was 4.9 °C (2.7 standard deviations) above the 1974–2010 average in Kangerlussuaq. High temperatures were also observed over the ice sheet, with the magnitude of the positive anomaly increasing with altitude, particularly in August. Simultaneously, surface albedo was anomalously low in 2010, predominantly in the upper ablation zone. The low albedo was caused by high ablation, which in turn profited from high temperatures and low winter snowfall. Surface energy balance calculations show that the largest melt excess (∼170%) occurred in the upper ablation zone (above 1000 m), where higher temperatures and lower albedo contributed equally to the melt anomaly. At lower elevations the melt excess can be attributed to high atmospheric temperatures alone. In total, we calculate that 6.6 ± 1.0 km 3 of surface meltwater ran off the ice sheet in the Kangerlussuaq catchment in 2010, exceeding the reference year 2009 (based on atmospheric temperature measurements) by ∼150%. During future warm episodes we can expect a melt response of at least the same magnitude, unless a larger wintertime snow accumulation delays and moderates the melt-albedo feedback. Due to the hypsometry of the ice sheet, yielding an increasing surface area with elevation, meltwater runoff will be further amplified by increases in melt forcings such as atmospheric heat.

Description: In plain sight: the Chesapeake Bay crater ejecta blanket Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 363-428, 2012 Author(s): D. L. Griscom The discovery nearly two decades ago of a 90 km-diameter impact crater below the lower Chesapeake Bay has gone unnoted by the general public because to date all published literature on the subject has described it as "buried". To the contrary, evidence is presented here that the so-called "upland deposits" that blanket ∼5000 km 2 of the U.S. Middle-Atlantic Coastal Plain (M-ACP) display morphologic, lithologic, and stratigraphic features consistent with their being ejecta from the 35.4 Ma Chesapeake Bay Impact Structure (CBIS) and absolutely inconsistent with the prevailing belief that they are of fluvial origin. Specifically supporting impact origin are the facts that (i) a 95 %-pure iron ore endemic to the upland deposits of southern Maryland, eastern Virginia, and the District of Columbia has previously been proven to be impactoclastic in origin, (ii) this iron ore welds together a small percentage of well-rounded quartzite pebbles and cobbles of the upland deposits into brittle sheets interpretable as "spall plates" created in the interference-zone of the CBIS impact, (iii) the predominantly non-welded upland gravels have long ago been shown to be size sorted with an extreme crater-centric gradient far too large to have been the work of rivers, but well explained as atmospheric size-sorted interference-zone ejecta, (iv) new evidence is provided here that ~60 % of the non-welded quartzite pebbles and cobbles of the (lower lying) gravel member of the upland deposits display planar fractures attributable to interference-zone tensile waves, (v) the (overlying) loam member of the upland deposits is attributable to base-surge-type deposition, (vi) several exotic clasts found in a debris flow topographically below the upland deposits can only be explained as jetting-phase crater ejecta, and (vii) an allogenic granite boulder found among the upland deposits is deduced to have been launched into space and sculpted by hypervelocity air friction during reentry. An idealized calculation of the CBIS ejecta-blanket elevation profile minutes after the impact was carried out founded on well established rules for explosion and impact-generated craters. This profile is shown here to match the volume of the upland deposits ≥170 km from the crater center. Closer to the crater, much of the "postdicted" ejecta blanket has clearly been removed by erosion. Nevertheless the Shirley and fossil-free Bacons Castle Formations, located between the upland deposits and the CBIS interior and veneering the present day surface with units ∼10–20 m deep, are respectively identified as curtain- and excavation-phase ejecta. The neritic-fossil-bearing Calvert Formation external to the crater is deduced to be of Eocene age (as opposed to early Miocene as currently believed), preserved by the armoring effects of the overlying CBIS ejecta composed of the (distal) upland deposits and the (proximal) Bacons Castle Formation. The lithofacies of the in-crater Calvert Formation can only have resulted from inward mass wasting of the postdicted ejecta blanket, vestiges of which (i.e. the Bacons Castle and Shirley Formations) still overlap the crater rim and sag into its interior, consistent with this expectation. Because there appear to be a total of ∼10 000 km 2 of CBIS ejecta lying on the present-day surface, future research should center the stratigraphic, lithologic, and petrologic properties of these ejecta versus both radial distance from the crater center (to identify ejecta from different ejection stages) and circumferentially at fixed radial distances (to detect possible anisotropies relating the impact angle and direction of approach of the impactor). The geological units described here may comprise the best preserved, and certainly the most accessible, ejecta blanket of a major crater on the Earth's surface and therefore promise to be a boon to the field of impact geology. As a corollary, a major revision of the current stratigraphic column of the M-ACP will be necessary.

Description: On closure parameter estimation in chaotic systems Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 127-143, 2012 Author(s): J. Hakkarainen, A. Ilin, A. Solonen, M. Laine, H. Haario, J. Tamminen, E. Oja, and H. Järvinen Many dynamical models, such as numerical weather prediction and climate models, contain so called closure parameters. These parameters usually appear in physical parameterizations of sub-grid scale processes, and they act as "tuning handles" of the models. Currently, the values of these parameters are specified mostly manually, but the increasing complexity of the models calls for more algorithmic ways to perform the tuning. Traditionally, parameters of dynamical systems are estimated by directly comparing the model simulations to observed data using, for instance, a least squares approach. However, if the models are chaotic, the classical approach can be ineffective, since small errors in the initial conditions can lead to large, unpredictable deviations from the observations. In this paper, we study numerical methods available for estimating closure parameters in chaotic models. We discuss three techniques: off-line likelihood calculations using filtering methods, the state augmentation method, and the approach that utilizes summary statistics from long model simulations. The properties of the methods are studied using a modified version of the Lorenz 95 system, where the effect of fast variables are described using a simple parameterization.

Description: Effects of fire on ash thickness in a Lithuanian grassland and short-term spatio-temporal changes Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 1545-1584, 2012 Author(s): P. Pereira, A. Cerdà, X. Úbeda, J. Mataix-Solera, D. Martin, A. Jordán, and M. Burguet Ash thickness is a key variable in the protection of soil against erosion agents after planned and unplanned fires. Thicker ash provides better protection against raindrop impact and reduces the runoff response by retaining water and promoting water infiltration although little is known about the distribution and the evolution of the ash layer after the fires. Ash thickness measurements were conducted along two transects (flat and sloping areas) following a a grid experimental design. Both transects extended from the burned area into an adjacent unburned area. We analysed ash thickness evolution according to time and fire severity. In order to interpolate data with accuracy and identify the techniques with the least bias, several interpolation methods were tested in the grid plot. Overall, the fire had a low severity. The fire significantly reduced the ground cover, especially on sloping areas owing to the higher fire severity and/or less biomass previous to the fire. Ash thickness depends on fire severity and is thin where fire severity was higher and thicker in lower fire severity sites. The ash thickness decreased with time after the fire. Between 4 and 16 days after the fire, ash was transported by wind. The major reduction took place between 16 and 34 days after the fire as a result of rainfall, and was more efficient where fire severity was higher. Between 34 and 45 days after the fire no significant differences in ash thickness were identified among ash colours and only traces of the ash layer remained. The omni-directional experimental variograms shown that variable structure did not change importantly with the time, however, the most accurate interpolation methods were different highlighting the slight different patterns of ash thickness distribution with the time. The ash spatial variability increased with the time, particularly on the slope, as a result of water erosion.

Description: Comprehensive analysis of tornado statistics in comparison to earthquakes: intensity and temporal behaviour Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 47-57, 2013 Author(s): L. Schielicke and P. Névir Tornadoes and earthquakes are characterised by a high variability in their properties concerning intensity, geometric properties and temporal behaviour. Earthquakes are known for power-law behaviour in their intensity (Gutenberg–Richter law) and temporal statistics (e.g. Omori law and interevent waiting times). The observed similarity of high variability of these two phenomena motivated us to compare the statistical behaviour of tornadoes using seismological methods and quest for power-law behaviour. In general, the statistics of tornadoes show power-law behaviour partly coextensive with characteristic scales when the temporal resolution is high (10 to 60 min). These characteristic scales match with the typical diurnal behaviour of tornadoes, which is characterised by a maximum of tornado occurrences in the late afternoon hours. Furthermore, the distributions support the observation that tornadoes cluster in time. Finally, we shortly discuss a possible similar underlying structure composed of heterogeneous, coupled, interactive threshold oscillators that possibly explains the observed behaviour.

Description: Quantifying soil complexity using network models of soil porous structure Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 41-45, 2013 Author(s): M. Samec, A. Santiago, J. P. Cárdenas, R. M. Benito, A. M. Tarquis, S. J. Mooney, and D. Korošak This paper describes an investigation into the properties of spatially embedded complex networks representing the porous architecture of soil systems. We suggest an approach to quantify the complexity of soil pore structure based on the node-node link correlation properties of the networks. We show that the complexity depends on the strength of spatial embedding of the network and that this is related to the transition from a non-compact to compact phase of the network.

Description: Climatic drivers of seasonal glacier mass balances: an analysis of 6 decades at Glacier de Sarennes (French Alps) The Cryosphere, 7, 47-66, 2013 Author(s): E. Thibert, N. Eckert, and C. Vincent Refined temporal signals extracted from a winter and summer mass balance series recorded at Glacier de Sarennes (French Alps) using variance decomposition are related to local meteorological data and large-scale North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) anomalies in terms of interannual variability, trends of the low-frequency signals, and breaks in the time series. The winter balance has increased by +23% since 1976 due to more precipitation in early and late winter. The summer balance has decreased since 1982 due to a 43% increase in snow and ice melt. A 24-day lengthening of the ablation period – mainly due to longer ice ablation – is the main component in the overall increase in ablation. In addition, the last 25 yr have seen increases in ablation rates of 14 and 10% for snow and ice, respectively. A simple degree-day analysis can account for both the snow/ice melt rate rise and the lengthening of the ablation period as a function of higher air temperatures. From the same analysis, the equilibrium-line altitude of this 45° N latitude south-facing glacier has a sensitivity to temperature of +93 m °C −1 around its mean elevation of 3100 m a.s.l. over 6 decades. The sensitivity of summer balance to temperature is −0.62 m w.e. yr −1 °C −1 for a typical 125-day-long ablation season. Finally, the correlation of winter and summer mass balance terms with NAO anomalies is investigated. Singularly, highest values are obtained between winter NAO anomalies and summer balance. Winter NAO anomalies and winter balance and precipitation are almost disconnected. However, these results strongly depend on how the NAO signal is smoothed, so that the link between Sarennes mass balance seasonal terms and NAO signal remains tenuous and hard to interpret.

Description: Quantification of magma ascent rate through rockfall monitoring at the growing/collapsing lava dome of Volcán de Colima, Mexico Solid Earth Discussions, 5, 1-39, 2013 Author(s): S. B. Mueller, N. R. Varley, U. Kueppers, P. Lesage, G. Á. Reyes Davila, and D. B. Dingwell The most recent eruptive phase of Volcán de Colima, Mexico, started in 1998 and was characterized by episodic dome growth with a variable effusion rate, interrupted intermittently by explosive eruptions. Between November 2009 and June 2011, growth at the dome was limited to a lobe on the western side where it had previously started overflowing the crater rim, leading to the generation of rockfall events. This meant that no significant increase in dome volume was perceivable and the rate of magma ascent, a crucial parameter for volcano monitoring and hazard assessment, could no longer be quantified via measurements of the dome's dimensions. Here, we present alternative approaches to quantify the magma ascent rate. We estimate the volume of individual rockfalls through the detailed analysis of sets of photographs (before and after individual rockfall events). The relationship between volume and infrared images of the freshly exposed dome surface and the seismic signals related to the rockfall events was then investigated. Larger events exhibited a correlation between the previously estimated volume of a rockfall and the surface temperature of the freshly exposed dome surface as well as the mean temperature of rockfall masses distributed over the slope. We showed that for larger events, the volume of the rockfall correlates with the maximum temperature at the newly formed cliff as well as the seismic energy. By calibrating the seismic signals using the volumes estimated from photographs, the count of rockfalls over a certain period was used to estimate the magma extrusion flux for the period investigated. Over the course of the measurement period, significant changes were observed in number of rockfalls, rockfall volume and hence averaged extrusion rate. The extrusion rate was not constant: it increased from 0.008 m 3 s −1 to 0.02 m 3 s −1 during 2010 and dropped down to 0.008 m 3 s −1 again in March 2011. In June 2011, magma extrusion had come to a halt. The methodology presented represents a reliable tool to constrain the growth rate of domes that are repeatedly affected by partial collapses. There is a good correlation between thermal and seismic energies and rockfall volume. Thus it is possible to calibrate the seismic records associated with the rockfalls (a continuous monitoring tool) to improve both volcano monitoring at volcanoes with active dome growth and hazard management associated with rockfalls specifically.

Description: Analysis of asymmetries in propagating mode-2 waves Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 59-69, 2013 Author(s): J. Olsthoorn, A. Baglaenko, and M. Stastna Using numerical simulations performed with a pseudo-spectral incompressible Navier–Stokes solver, we describe the asymmetries that arise in the recirculating core of mode-2 internal, solitary-like waves. The waves are generated in a manner consistent with many laboratory studies, namely via the collapse of a region of mixed fluid. Analysis of the simulations reveals that asymmetries across both the wave crest and the pycnocline centre develop in the spatial distribution of density, kinetic energy and a passive tracer transported by the mode-2 waves. The simulations are extended to three-dimensions to allow for the formation of spanwise instabilities. We find that three-dimensionalization modifies the structure and energetics of the core, but that the majority of the results obtained from two dimensional simulations remain valid. Taken together, our simulations demonstrate that the cores of solitary-like mode-2 waves are different then their counterparts for mode-1 waves and that their accurate characterization on both lab and field scales should account for the core asymmetry across the pycnocline centre.

Description: Kinematics of the South Atlantic rift Solid Earth Discussions, 5, 41-116, 2013 Author(s): C. Heine, J. Zoethout, and R. D. Müller The South Atlantic rift basin evolved as branch of a large Jurassic-Cretaceous intraplate rift zone between the African and South American plates during the final breakup of western Gondwana. While the relative motions between South America and Africa for post-breakup times are well resolved, many issues pertaining to the fit reconstruction and particular the relation between kinematics and lithosphere dynamics during pre-breakup remain unclear in currently published plate models. We have compiled and assimilated data from these intraplated rifts and constructed a revised plate kinematic model for the pre-breakup evolution of the South Atlantic. Based on structural restoration of the conjugate South Atlantic margins and intracontinental rift basins in Africa and South America, we achieve a tight fit reconstruction which eliminates the need for previously inferred large intracontinental shear zones, in particular in Patagonian South America. By quantitatively accounting for crustal deformation in the Central and West African rift zone, we have been able to indirectly construct the kinematic history of the pre-breakup evolution of the conjugate West African-Brazilian margins. Our model suggests a causal link between changes in extension direction and velocity during continental extension and the generation of marginal structures such as the enigmatic Pre-salt sag basin and the São Paulo High. We model an initial E–W directed extension between South America and Africa (fixed in present-day position) at very low extensional velocities until Upper Hauterivian times (≈126 Ma) when rift activity along in the equatorial Atlantic domain started to increase significantly. During this initial ≈17 Myr-long stretching episode the Pre-salt basin width on the conjugate Brazilian and West African margins is generated. An intermediate stage between 126.57 Ma and Base Aptian is characterised by strain localisation, rapid lithospheric weakening in the equatorial Atlantic domain, resulting in both progressively increasing extensional velocities as well as a significant rotation of the extension direction to NE–SW. From Base Aptian onwards diachronous lithospheric breakup occurred along the central South Atlantic rift, first in the Sergipe-Alagoas/Rio Muni margin segment in the northernmost South Atlantic. Final breakup between South America and Africa occurred in the conjugate Santos–Benguela margin segment at around 113 Ma and in the Equatorial Atlantic domain between the Ghanaian Ridge and the Piauí-Ceará margin at 103 Ma. We conclude that such a multi-velocity, multi-directional rift history exerts primary control on the evolution of this conjugate passive margins systems and can explain the first order tectonic structures along the South Atlantic and possibly other passive margins.

Description: A synthesis of the Antarctic surface mass balance during the last 800 yr The Cryosphere, 7, 303-319, 2013 Author(s): M. Frezzotti, C. Scarchilli, S. Becagli, M. Proposito, and S. Urbini Global climate models suggest that Antarctic snowfall should increase in a warming climate and mitigate rises in the sea level. Several processes affect surface mass balance (SMB), introducing large uncertainties in past, present and future ice sheet mass balance. To provide an extended perspective on the past SMB of Antarctica, we used 67 firn/ice core records to reconstruct the temporal variability in the SMB over the past 800 yr and, in greater detail, over the last 200 yr. Our SMB reconstructions indicate that the SMB changes over most of Antarctica are statistically negligible and that the current SMB is not exceptionally high compared to the last 800 yr. High-accumulation periods have occurred in the past, specifically during the 1370s and 1610s. However, a clear increase in accumulation of more than 10% has occurred in high SMB coastal regions and over the highest part of the East Antarctic ice divide since the 1960s. To explain the differences in behaviour between the coastal/ice divide sites and the rest of Antarctica, we suggest that a higher frequency of blocking anticyclones increases the precipitation at coastal sites, leading to the advection of moist air in the highest areas, whereas blowing snow and/or erosion have significant negative impacts on the SMB at windy sites. Eight hundred years of stacked records of the SMB mimic the total solar irradiance during the 13th and 18th centuries. The link between those two variables is probably indirect and linked to a teleconnection in atmospheric circulation that forces complex feedback between the tropical Pacific and Antarctica via the generation and propagation of a large-scale atmospheric wave train.

Description: Ion motion in the current sheet with sheared magnetic field – Part 1: Quasi-adiabatic theory Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 163-178, 2013 Author(s): A. V. Artemyev, A. I. Neishtadt, and L. M. Zelenyi We present a theory of trapped ion motion in the magnetotail current sheet with a constant dawn–dusk component of the magnetic field. Particle trajectories are described analytically using the quasi-adiabatic invariant corresponding to averaging of fast oscillations around the tangential component of the magnetic field. We consider particle dynamics in the quasi-adiabatic approximation and demonstrate that the principal role is played by large (so called geometrical) jumps of the quasi-adiabatic invariant. These jumps appear due to the current sheet asymmetry related to the presence of the dawn–dusk magnetic field. The analytical description is compared with results of numerical integration. We show that there are four possible regimes of particle motion. Each regime is characterized by certain ranges of values of the dawn–dusk magnetic field and particle energy. We find the critical value of the dawn–dusk magnetic field, where jumps of the quasi-adiabatic invariant vanish.

Description: Land-use change effects on soil quality in Montilla-Moriles DO, Southern Spain Solid Earth Discussions, 5, 163-187, 2013 Author(s): M. Martín-Carrillo, L. Parras-Alcántara, and B. Lozano-García The agricultural Mediterranean areas are dedicated to arable crops (AC), but in the last few decades, a significant number of AC has a land use change (LUC) to olive grove cultivations (OG) and vineyards (V). A field study was conducted to determine the long-term effects (46 yr) of LUC (AC by OG and V) and to determine soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN), C:N ratio and their stratification across the soil entire profile, in Montilla-Moriles denomination of origin (DO), in Calcic-Chromic Luvisols (LVcc/cr), an area under semiarid Mediterranean conditions. The experimental design consisted of studying the LUC on one farm between 1965 and 2011. Originally, only AC was farmed in 1965, but OG and V were farmed up to now (2011). This LUC principally affected the thickness horizon, texture, bulk density, pH, organic matter, organic carbon, total nitrogen and C:N ratio. The LUC had a negative impact in the soil, affecting the SOC and TN stocks. The conversion from AC to V and OG involved the loss of the SOC stock (52.7% and 64.9% to V and OG, respectively) and the loss of the TN stock (42.6% and 38.1% to V and OG, respectively). With respect to the soil quality, the effect was opposite; 46\,yr after LUC improved the soil quality, increasing the stratification ratio (in V and OG) of SOC, TN and C:N ratio.

Description: Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice The Cryosphere, 7, 321-332, 2013 Author(s): T. S. Rogers, J. E. Walsh, T. S. Rupp, L. W. Brigham, and M. Sfraga There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice loss has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January–March) extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead–lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities.

Description: Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models The Cryosphere, 6, 1275-1294, 2012 Author(s): J. G. L. Rae, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, J. M. Gregory, H. T. Hewitt, J. A. Lowe, P. Lucas-Picher, R. H. Mottram, A. J. Payne, J. K. Ridley, S. R. Shannon, W. J. van de Berg, R. S. W. van de Wal, and M. R. van den Broeke Four high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) have been set up for the area of Greenland, with the aim of providing future projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), and its contribution to sea level rise, with greater accuracy than is possible from coarser-resolution general circulation models (GCMs). This is the first time an intercomparison has been carried out of RCM results for Greenland climate and SMB. Output from RCM simulations for the recent past with the four RCMs is evaluated against available observations. The evaluation highlights the importance of using a detailed snow physics scheme, especially regarding the representations of albedo and meltwater refreezing. Simulations with three of the RCMs for the 21st century using SRES scenario A1B from two GCMs produce trends of between −5.5 and −1.1 Gt yr −2 in SMB (equivalent to +0.015 and +0.003 mm sea level equivalent yr −2 ), with trends of smaller magnitude for scenario E1, in which emissions are mitigated. Results from one of the RCMs whose present-day simulation is most realistic indicate that an annual mean near-surface air temperature increase over Greenland of ~ 2°C would be required for the mass loss to increase such that it exceeds accumulation, thereby causing the SMB to become negative, which has been suggested as a threshold beyond which the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated.

Description: Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 623-633, 2012 Author(s): F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, Y. He, J. Freer, and H. L. Cloke Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs) through regional climate models (RCMs) potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS) techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1) a simple direct method (DM), (2) quantile-quantile mapping (QM) and (3) a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts) project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.

Description: Simulating snow maps for Norway: description and statistical evaluation of the seNorge snow model The Cryosphere, 6, 1323-1337, 2012 Author(s): T. M. Saloranta Daily maps of snow conditions have been produced in Norway with the seNorge snow model since 2004. The seNorge snow model operates with 1 × 1 km resolution, uses gridded observations of daily temperature and precipitation as its input forcing, and simulates, among others, snow water equivalent (SWE), snow depth (SD), and the snow bulk density (ρ). In this paper the set of equations contained in the seNorge model code is described and a thorough spatiotemporal statistical evaluation of the model performance from 1957–2011 is made using the two major sets of extensive in situ snow measurements that exist for Norway. The evaluation results show that the seNorge model generally overestimates both SWE and ρ, and that the overestimation of SWE increases with elevation throughout the snow season. However, the R 2 -values for model fit are 0.60 for (log-transformed) SWE and 0.45 for ρ, indicating that after removal of the detected systematic model biases (e.g. by recalibrating the model or expressing snow conditions in relative units) the model performs rather well. The seNorge model provides a relatively simple, not very data-demanding, yet nonetheless process-based method to construct snow maps of high spatiotemporal resolution. It is an especially well suited alternative for operational snow mapping in regions with rugged topography and large spatiotemporal variability in snow conditions, as is the case in the mountainous Norway.

Description: Ground penetrating radar detection of subsnow slush on ice-covered lakes in interior Alaska The Cryosphere, 6, 1435-1443, 2012 Author(s): A. Gusmeroli and G. Grosse Lakes are abundant throughout the pan-Arctic region. For many of these lakes ice cover lasts for up to two thirds of the year. The frozen cover allows human access to these lakes, which are therefore used for many subsistence and recreational activities, including water harvesting, fishing, and skiing. Safe traveling condition onto lakes may be compromised, however, when, after significant snowfall, the weight of the snow acts on the ice and causes liquid water to spill through weak spots and overflow at the snow-ice interface. Since visual detection of subsnow slush is almost impossible our understanding on overflow processes is still very limited and geophysical methods that allow water and slush detection are desirable. In this study we demonstrate that a commercially available, lightweight 1 GHz, ground penetrating radar system can detect and map extent and intensity of overflow. The strength of radar reflections from wet snow-ice interfaces are at least twice as much in strength than returns from dry snow-ice interface. The presence of overflow also affects the quality of radar returns from the base of the lake ice. During dry conditions we were able to profile ice thickness of up to 1 m, conversely, we did not retrieve any ice-water returns in areas affected by overflow.

Description: The footprint of Asian monsoon dynamics in the mass and energy balance of a Tibetan glacier The Cryosphere, 6, 1445-1461, 2012 Author(s): T. Mölg, F. Maussion, W. Yang, and D. Scherer Determinations of glacier-wide mass and energy balance are still scarce for the remote mountains of the Tibetan Plateau, where field measurements are challenging. Here we run and evaluate a physical, distributed mass balance model for Zhadang Glacier (central Tibet, 30° N) based on in-situ measurements over 2009–2011 and an uncertainty estimate by Monte Carlo and ensemble strategies. The model application aims to provide the first quantification of how the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) impacts an entire glacier over the various stages of the monsoon's annual cycle. We find a strong and systematic ISM footprint on the interannual scale. Early (late) monsoon onset causes higher (lower) accumulation, and reduces (increases) the available energy for ablation primarily through changes in absorbed shortwave radiation. By contrast, only a weak footprint exists in the ISM cessation phase. Most striking though is the core monsoon season: local mass and energy balance variability is fully decoupled from the active/break cycle that defines large-scale atmospheric variability during the ISM. Our results demonstrate quantitatively that monsoon onset strongly affects the ablation season of glaciers in Tibet. However, we find no direct ISM impact on the glacier in the main monsoon season, which has not been acknowledged so far. This result also adds cryospheric evidence that, once the monsoon is in full swing, regional atmospheric variability prevails on the Tibetan Plateau in summer.

Description: The first complete inventory of the local \newline glaciers and ice caps on Greenland The Cryosphere, 6, 1483-1495, 2012 Author(s): P. Rastner, T. Bolch, N. Mölg, H. Machguth, R. Le Bris, and F. Paul Glacier inventories provide essential baseline information for the determination of water resources, glacier-specific changes in area and volume, climate change impacts as well as past, potential and future contribution of glaciers to sea-level rise. Although Greenland is heavily glacierised and thus highly relevant for all of the above points, a complete inventory of its glaciers was not available so far. Here we present the results and details of a new and complete inventory that has been compiled from more than 70 Landsat scenes (mostly acquired between 1999 and 2002) using semi-automated glacier mapping techniques. A digital elevation model (DEM) was used to derive drainage divides from watershed analysis and topographic attributes for each glacier entity. To serve the needs of different user communities, we assigned to each glacier one of three connectivity levels with the ice sheet (CL0, CL1, CL2; i.e. no, weak, and strong connection) to clearly, but still flexibly, distinguish the local glaciers and ice caps (GIC) from the ice sheet and its outlet glaciers. In total, we mapped ~ 20 300 glaciers larger than 0.05 km 2 (of which ~ 900 are marine terminating), covering an area of 130 076 ± 4032 km 2 , or 89 720 ± 2781 km 2 without the CL2 GIC. The latter value is about 50% higher than the mean value of more recent previous estimates. Glaciers smaller than 0.5 km 2 contribute only 1.5% to the total area but more than 50% (11 000) to the total number. In contrast, the 25 largest GIC (〉 500 km 2 ) contribute 28% to the total area, but only 0.1% to the total number. The mean elevation of the GIC is 1700 m in the eastern sector and around 1000 m otherwise. The median elevation increases with distance from the coast, but has only a weak dependence on mean glacier aspect.

Description: Application of soil quality indices to assess the status of agricultural soils irrigated with treated wastewaters Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 1485-1509, 2012 Author(s): A. Morugán-Coronado, V. Arcenegui, F. García-Orenes, J. Mataix-Solera, and J. Mataix-Beneyto The supply of water is limited in some parts of the Mediterranean region, such as southeastern Spain. The use of treated wastewater for the irrigation of agricultural soils is an alternative to using better-quality water, especially in semi-arid regions. On the other hand, this practice can modify some soil properties, change their relationships, the equilibrium reached and influence soil quality. In this work two soil quality indices were used to evaluate the effects of irrigation with treated wastewater in soils. The indices were developed studying different soil properties in undisturbed soils in SE Spain, and the relationships between soil parameters were established using multiple linear regressions. This study was carried out in three areas of Alicante Province (SE Spain) irrigated with wastewater, including four study sites. The results showed slight changes in some soil properties as a consequence of irrigation with wastewater, the obtained levels not being dangerous for agricultural soils, and in some cases they could be considered as positive from an agronomical point of view. In one of the study sites, and as a consequence of the low quality wastewater used, a relevant increase in soil organic matter content was observed, as well as modifications in most of the soil properties. The application of soil quality indices indicated that all the soils of study sites are in a state of disequilibrium regarding the relationships between properties independent of the type of water used. However, there were no relevant differences in the soil quality indices between soils irrigated with wastewater with respect to their control sites for all except one of the sites, which corresponds to the site where low quality wastewater was used.

Description: Influence of a component of solar irradiance on radon signals at 1 km depth, Gran Sasso, Italy Solid Earth Discussions, 4, 1511-1544, 2012 Author(s): G. Steinitz, O. Piatibratova, and N. Charit-Yaari Exploratory monitoring of radon is conducted at one location at the deep underground Gran Sasso National Laboratory (LNGS). Measurements (15-min resolution) are performed over a time span of ca. 600 days in the air of the surrounding calcareous country rock. Utilizing both alpha and gamma-ray detectors systematic and recurring radon signals are recorded. Two primary signal types are determined: (a) non-periodic Multi-Day (MD) signals lasting 2–10 days, and (b) Daily Radon (DR) signals – which are of a periodic nature exhibiting a primary 24-h cycle. The local ancillary environmental conditions ( P , T ) seem not to affect radon in air monitored at the site. Long term patterns of day-time measurements are different from the pattern of night-time measurements indicating a day-night modulation of gamma radiation from radon in air. The phenomenology of the MD and DR signals is similar to situations encountered at other locations where radon is monitored with a high time resolution in geogas at upper crustal levels. In accordance with recent field and experimental results it is suggested that a components of solar irradiance is affecting the radiation from radon in air, and this influence is further modulated by the diurnal rotation of Earth. The occurrence of these radon signals in the 1 km deep low radiation underground geological environment of LNGS provides new information on the time variation of the local radiation environment. The observations and results place the LNGS facility as a high priority location for performing advanced investigations of these geophysical phenomena, due to its location and its infrastructure.

Description: A typical wave wake from high-speed vessels: its group structure and run-up Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 179-188, 2013 Author(s): I. Didenkulova and A. Rodin High-amplitude water waves induced by high-speed vessels are regularly observed in Tallinn Bay, the Baltic Sea, causing intense beach erosion and disturbing marine habitants in the coastal zone. Such a strong impact on the coast may be a result of a certain group structure of the wave wake. In order to understand it, here we present an experimental study of the group structure of these wakes at Pikakari beach, Tallinn Bay. The most energetic vessel waves at this location (100 m from the coast at the water depth 2.7 m) have amplitudes of about 1 m and periods of 8–10 s and cause maximum run-up heights on a beach up to 1.4 m. These waves represent frequency modulated packets where the largest and longest waves propagate ahead of other smaller amplitude and period waves. Sometimes the groups of different heights and periods can be separated even within one wave wake event. The wave heights within a wake are well described by the Weibull distribution, which has different parameters for wakes from different vessels. Wave run-up heights can also be described by Weibull distribution and its parameters can be connected to the parameters of the distribution of wave heights 100 m from the coast. Finally, the run-up of individual waves within a packet is studied. It is shown that the specific structure of frequency modulated wave packets, induced by high-speed vessels, leads to a sequence of high wave run-ups at the coast, even when the original wave heights are rather moderate. This feature can be a key to understanding the significant impact on coasts caused by fast vessels.

Description: Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica The Cryosphere, 7, 375-393, 2013 Author(s): P. Fretwell, H. D. Pritchard, D. G. Vaughan, J. L. Bamber, N. E. Barrand, R. Bell, C. Bianchi, R. G. Bingham, D. D. Blankenship, G. Casassa, G. Catania, D. Callens, H. Conway, A. J. Cook, H. F. J. Corr, D. Damaske, V. Damm, F. Ferraccioli, R. Forsberg, S. Fujita, Y. Gim, P. Gogineni, J. A. Griggs, R. C. A. Hindmarsh, P. Holmlund, J. W. Holt, R. W. Jacobel, A. Jenkins, W. Jokat, T. Jordan, E. C. King, J. Kohler, W. Krabill, M. Riger-Kusk, K. A. Langley, G. Leitchenkov, C. Leuschen, B. P. Luyendyk, K. Matsuoka, J. Mouginot, F. O. Nitsche, Y. Nogi, O. A. Nost, S. V. Popov, E. Rignot, D. M. Rippin, A. Rivera, J. Roberts, N. Ross, M. J. Siegert, A. M. Smith, D. Steinhage, M. Studinger, B. Sun, B. K. Tinto, B. C. Welch, D. Wilson, D. A. Young, C. Xiangbin, and A. Zirizzotti We present Bedmap2, a new suite of gridded products describing surface elevation, ice-thickness and the seafloor and subglacial bed elevation of the Antarctic south of 60° S. We derived these products using data from a variety of sources, including many substantial surveys completed since the original Bedmap compilation (Bedmap1) in 2001. In particular, the Bedmap2 ice thickness grid is made from 25 million measurements, over two orders of magnitude more than were used in Bedmap1. In most parts of Antarctica the subglacial landscape is visible in much greater detail than was previously available and the improved data-coverage has in many areas revealed the full scale of mountain ranges, valleys, basins and troughs, only fragments of which were previously indicated in local surveys. The derived statistics for Bedmap2 show that the volume of ice contained in the Antarctic ice sheet (27 million km 3 ) and its potential contribution to sea-level rise (58 m) are similar to those of Bedmap1, but the mean thickness of the ice sheet is 4.6% greater, the mean depth of the bed beneath the grounded ice sheet is 72 m lower and the area of ice sheet grounded on bed below sea level is increased by 10%. The Bedmap2 compilation highlights several areas beneath the ice sheet where the bed elevation is substantially lower than the deepest bed indicated by Bedmap1. These products, along with grids of data coverage and uncertainty, provide new opportunities for detailed modelling of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheets.

Description: Variability and trends in Laptev Sea ice outflow between 1992–2011 The Cryosphere, 7, 349-363, 2013 Author(s): T. Krumpen, M. Janout, K. I. Hodges, R. Gerdes, F. Girard-Ardhuin, J. A. Hölemann, and S. Willmes Variability and trends in seasonal and interannual ice area export out of the Laptev Sea between 1992 and 2011 are investigated using satellite-based sea ice drift and concentration data. We found an average total winter (October to May) ice area transport across the northern and eastern Laptev Sea boundaries (NB and EB) of 3.48 × 10 5 km 2 . The average transport across the NB (2.87 × 10 5 km 2 ) is thereby higher than across the EB (0.61 × 10 5 km 2 ), with a less pronounced seasonal cycle. The total Laptev Sea ice area flux significantly increased over the last decades (0.85 × 10 5 km 2 decade −1 , p 〉 0.95), dominated by increasing export through the EB (0.55 × 10 5 km 2 decade −1 , p 〉 0.90), while the increase in export across the NB is smaller (0.3 × 10 5 km 2 decade −1 ) and statistically not significant. The strong coupling between across-boundary SLP gradient and ice drift velocity indicates that monthly variations in ice area flux are primarily controlled by changes in geostrophic wind velocities, although the Laptev Sea ice circulation shows no clear relationship with large-scale atmospheric indices. Also there is no evidence of increasing wind velocities that could explain the overall positive trends in ice export. The increased transport rates are rather the consequence of a changing ice cover such as thinning and/or a decrease in concentration. The use of a back-propagation method revealed that most of the ice that is incorporated into the Transpolar Drift is formed during freeze-up and originates from the central and western part of the Laptev Sea, while the exchange with the East Siberian Sea is dominated by ice coming from the central and southeastern Laptev Sea. Furthermore, our results imply that years of high ice export in late winter (February to May) have a thinning effect on the ice cover, which in turn preconditions the occurence of negative sea ice extent anomalies in summer.

Description: Retention and radiative forcing of black carbon in eastern Sierra Nevada snow The Cryosphere, 7, 365-374, 2013 Author(s): K. M. Sterle, J. R. McConnell, J. Dozier, R. Edwards, and M. G. Flanner When contaminated by absorbing particles, such as refractory black carbon (rBC) and continental dust, snow's albedo decreases and thus its absorption of solar radiation increases, thereby hastening snowmelt. For this reason, an understanding of rBC's affect on snow albedo, melt processes, and radiation balance is critical for water management, especially in a changing climate. Measurements of rBC in a sequence of snow pits and surface snow samples in the eastern Sierra Nevada of California during the snow accumulation and ablation seasons of 2009 show that concentrations of rBC were enhanced sevenfold in surface snow (~25 ng g –1 ) compared to bulk values in the snowpack (~3 ng g –1 ). Unlike major ions, which were preferentially released during the initial melt, rBC and continental dust were retained in the snow, enhancing concentrations well into late spring, until a final flush occurred during the ablation period. We estimate a combined rBC and continental dust surface radiative forcing of 20 to 40 W m −2 during April and May, with dust likely contributing a greater share of the forcing.

Description: Surface undulations of Antarctic ice streams tightly controlled by bedrock topography The Cryosphere, 7, 407-417, 2013 Author(s): J. De Rydt, G. H. Gudmundsson, H. F. J. Corr, and P. Christoffersen Full Stokes flow-line models predict that fast-flowing ice streams transmit information about their bedrock topography most efficiently to the surface for basal undulations with length scales between 1 and 20 times the mean ice thickness. This typical behaviour is independent of the precise values of the flow law and sliding law exponents, and should be universally observable. However, no experimental evidence for this important theoretical prediction has been obtained so far, hence ignoring an important test for the physical validity of current-day ice flow models. In our work we use recently acquired airborne radar data for the Rutford Ice Stream and Evans Ice Stream, and we show that the surface response of fast-flowing ice is highly sensitive to bedrock irregularities with wavelengths of several ice thicknesses. The sensitivity depends on the slip ratio, i.e. the ratio between mean basal sliding velocity and mean deformational velocity. We find that higher values of the slip ratio generally lead to a more efficient transfer, whereas the transfer is significantly dampened for ice that attains most of its surface velocity by creep. Our findings underline the importance of bedrock topography for ice stream dynamics on spatial scales up to 20 times the mean ice thickness. Our results also suggest that local variations in the flow regime and surface topography at this spatial scale cannot be explained by variations in basal slipperiness.