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  • Articles  (242)
  • Oxford University Press  (242)
  • American Chemical Society (ACS)
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  • 2020-2024
  • 2015-2019  (225)
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  • 1945-1949  (17)
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  • American Journal of Agricultural Economics  (114)
  • 129545
  • Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition  (242)
  • Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics
  • Electrical Engineering, Measurement and Control Technology
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  • Articles  (242)
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  • Oxford University Press  (242)
  • American Chemical Society (ACS)
  • American Physical Society
  • American Physical Society (APS)
  • Hindawi
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  • 2020-2024
  • 2015-2019  (225)
  • 1985-1989
  • 1945-1949  (17)
  • 1940-1944
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  • Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition  (242)
  • Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics
  • Electrical Engineering, Measurement and Control Technology
  • Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
  • Economics  (242)
  • 1
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    National Wage Trends and Migration in a Chinese Village Economy: A Micro Level Modeling Approach Based on a Composite Utility Function (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: China’s economy is experiencing a regime shift away from a fully elastic supply of labor from a large pool of rural surplus labor and toward a situation of increasing labor scarcity and rising wage rates. Moreover, faster wage increases in the regions of origin of many rural–urban migrants are likely to affect the dynamics of inter-regional migration. These wage trends have implications at the local level, in particular in a setting in which migration connects rural communities to the national labor market and in which migration is of high importance for the livelihoods of rural households. Taking a village perspective, this article develops a village computable general equilibrium model to study local impacts of current wage trends in China. As a central piece of the model, the role of access to migration for household livelihoods is recognized. Access to migration is linked to household demographics and included in the model through a composite utility function that captures household preferences and disutilities associated with alternative off-farm activities. Simulation results illustrate how households’ utility considerations affect migration responses to national wage changes. Statements about possible impacts on village level labor supply, land use, and agricultural production are made. When migration wages and local off-farm wages are simulated to increase, an overall increase in household and village migration and a higher supply of labor to local off-farm labor markets is accompanied by a contraction of farm production. Although land is reallocated between households with different migration responses, total agricultural output declines.
    Keywords: D13 - Household Production and Intrahousehold Allocation, J22 - Time Allocation and Labor Supply, J31 - Wage Level and Structure ; Wage Differentials, J43 - Agricultural Labor Markets, J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility ; Immigrant Workers, O12 - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 2
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    Making Time for Agricultural and Life Science Research: Technical Change and Productivity Gains (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: This work analyzes the research productivity of agricultural and life science faculty in U.S. Land Grant research universities from 1975 to 2005. Production function estimations that control for inputs and demographic characteristics reveal significant improvements after 1980 in faculty research productivity per unit time, especially in the non-top ten universities. Because, however, time available to faculty for research has decreased substantially in the past three decades, overall journal article output per faculty did not increase after the 1980s. Our findings demonstrate large productivity increases but raise concerns about the optimal allocation of faculty time.
    Keywords: I23 - Higher Education Research Institutions, O30 - General, Q10 - General
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 3
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    Dealing with Uncertainty in Agent-Based Simulation: Farm-Level Modeling of Adaptation to Climate Change in Southwest Germany (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: Climate change will most likely confront agricultural producers with natural, economic, and political conditions that have not previously been observed and are largely uncertain. As a consequence, extrapolation from past data reaches its limits, and a process-based analysis of farmer adaptation is required. Simulation of changes in crop yields using crop growth models is a first step in that direction. However, changes in crop yields are only one pathway through which climate change affects agricultural production. A meaningful process-based analysis of farmer adaptation requires a whole-farm analysis at the farm level. We use a highly disaggregated mathematical programming model to analyze farm-level climate change adaptation for a mountainous area in southwest Germany. Regional-level results are obtained by simulating each full-time farm holding in the study area. We address parameter uncertainty and model underdetermination using a cautious calibration approach and a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. We deal with the resulting computational burden using efficient experimental designs and high-performance computing. We show that in our study area, shifted crop management time slots can have potentially significant effects on agricultural supply, incomes, and various policy objectives promoted under German and European environmental policy schemes. The simulated effects are robust against model uncertainty and underline the importance of a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts beyond merely looking at crop yield changes. Our simulations demonstrate how farm-level models can contribute to a process-based analysis of climate change adaptation if they are embedded into a systematic framework for treating inherent model uncertainty.
    Keywords: C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis, C63 - Computational Techniques, Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 4
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    Optimal Sequential Plantings of Corn and Soybeans Under Price Uncertainty (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: Optimal crop choice and fertilizer applications depend on the stochastic dynamics of commodity prices, fertilizer prices, and the agronomic effects of rotation versus monoculture. The efficient decision rule accounts for real option values associated with maintaining land disposition in an environment with highly uncertain future prices and irreversible past planting decisions. We parameterize a baseline model for a representative acre in Iowa and compare the model's predictions and profits to relatively naive, shorter horizon decision rules, and a field managed with optimal fertilizer applications conditional on corn and soybeans always being rotated. We also examine the effects of a permanently larger premium on corn prices relative to soybean prices, which has been observed in locations near recently established ethanol plants. We then compare the various decision rules to actual crop choices in a panel of over 6,500 Iowa plots during 1979–2007. As compared to less forward-looking objectives, we find the agronomic benefits of rotations coupled with real option values can lead to a more inelastic response of planting decisions to both transitory and permanent price changes. Always rotating, regardless of prices, is close to optimal, but so are shorter-horizon objectives. One implication is that reduced corn monoculture and fertilizer application rates might be implemented with modest incentive payments of $4 per acre or less.
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 5
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    Farmer Bargaining Power and Market Information Services (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: In many Sub-Saharan African countries, farmers typically have a choice between selling their products to traders who travel between villages and markets and transporting their products to the nearest market themselves. Because of communities’ remoteness and poor communications with marketplaces, farmers’ uncertainty about market prices is usually high. Traders may take advantage of farmers’ ignorance of the market price and extract a rent from them by offering very low prices for their products. In this article, we model bargaining interactions between farmers and traders meeting at the farmgate and we study how price information affects the bargain and the balance of power. We show the conditions for Market Information Services (MIS) to be profitable for farmers and examine efficiency issues associated with asymmetric information. Finally, we test the model’s prediction that information results in positive individual gain for farmers using original survey data collected in the Northern region of Ghana. Specifically, we estimate the causal effect of a mobile-based MIS program on farmers’ marketing performances and find that farmers who have benefited from the MIS program received significantly higher prices for maize and groundnuts: about 10% more for maize and 7% more for groundnuts than what they would have received had they not participated in the MIS program. These results suggest that the theoretical conditions for successful farmer use of MIS may be met in the field.
    Keywords: C78 - Bargaining Theory ; Matching Theory, D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty, D83 - Search ; Learning ; Information and Knowledge ; Communication ; Belief, O12 - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 6
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    Irrigation Decisions for Major West Coast Crops: Water Scarcity and Climatic Determinants (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: This article uses the 2007 Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey database developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to assess the impact of water scarcity and climate on irrigation decisions for producers of specialty crops, wheat, and forage crops. We estimate an irrigation management model for major crops in the West Coast (California, Oregon, and Washington), which includes a farm-level equation of irrigated share and crop-specific equations of technology adoption and water application rate (orchard/vineyard, vegetable, wheat, alfalfa, hay, and pasture). We find that economic and physical water scarcity, climate, and extreme weather, such as frost, extreme heat, and drought, significantly impact producers’ irrigation decisions. Producers use sprinkler technologies or additional water applications to mitigate risk of crop damage from extreme weather. Water application rates are least responsive to surface water cost or groundwater well depth for producers of orchard/vineyard. Water supply institutions influence producers’ irrigation decisions. Producers who receive water from federal agencies use higher water application rates and are less likely to adopt water-saving irrigation technologies for some crops. Institutional arrangements, including access to distinct water sources (surface or ground) and whether surface water cost is fee based, also affect the responsiveness of water application rates to changes in surface water cost. The analysis provides valuable information about how producers in irrigated agricultural production systems would respond and adapt to water pricing policies and climate change.
    Keywords: Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation, Q16 - R&D ; Agricultural Technology ; Agricultural Extension Services, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 7
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    Hedging Supply Risks: An Optimal Water Portfolio (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: Although water supply diversification has been proposed as a solution to dwindling water reserves, the optimal mix of natural and manufactured sources of water remains largely unexplored. We develop a dynamic portfolio model of water supply that hedges against the supply risks from all potential water sources, by taking into account the size of water reserves, uncertainties of water flows as well as differences in supply costs. The optimal portfolio shares for an existing water supply system are derived and compared with the observed contributions to total water stock, revealing unexploited hedging opportunities between various naturally occurring water sources as well as a general over-reliance on manufactured water. The optimal solution implies that future supply augmentations should target natural sources of water ahead of manufactured water. It is estimated that the optimization of the water supply portfolio for a medium-sized city results in annual cost-savings of up to $463 million.
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 8
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    The Impact of Perceptions in Averting-decision Models: An Application of the Special Regressor Method to Drinking Water Choices (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: Households' monetary valuation of water quality is a prerequisite for efficient water resource management and the valuation of water quality protection policies. Individuals are commonly questioned about their perception of risk in valuation surveys based on stated-preference methods and revealed-preference methods such as averting-behavior models. These subjective and often discrete measures are commonly used to explain individuals' actions to protect themselves against these risks. Perceptions appear as endogenous variables in traditional theoretical averting-decision models but, quite surprisingly, endogeneity of perceived risk is not always controlled for in empirical studies. In this article, we argue that perceptions have to be treated as endogenous to averting decisions in order to produce accurate and reliable measures of households' valuation of water quality improvements. We present various binary averting decision models featuring an endogenous discrete variable (such as risk perception). In particular, we compare the traditional bivariate probit model with the special regressor model, which is less well-known and relies on a different set of assumptions. In the empirical illustration using household data from Australia, Canada, and France, we study how the perceived health impacts of tap water affect a household's decision to drink water from the tap. Individuals' perceptions are found to be endogenous and significant for all models, but the estimated marginal effect is sensitive to the chosen model. Our empirical application also includes some tests of the special regressor estimator's sensitivity to underlying assumptions.
    Keywords: C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis, Q53 - Air Pollution ; Water Pollution ; Noise ; Hazardous Waste ; Solid Waste ; Recycling
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 9
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    Measuring Price Elasticities of Demand and Supply of Water Entitlements Based on Stated and Revealed Preference Data (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: Estimates of price elasticities of water entitlements (known as permanent water or water rights in the United States) are complicated by data limitations and problems of endogeneity. To overcome these issues, we develop an approach to generate stated preference data and combine them with revealed preference data to estimate price elasticities from various types of water entitlement sales in the southern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. Our results suggest that price elasticities of demand and supply of high security water entitlements are inelastic in the relevant market price range between AUD ${{\$}}$ 1,700 to ${{\$}}$ 2,100 per mega-liter, and that supply is relatively more inelastic than demand. For lower reliability water entitlements, the price elasticity of demand is estimated to be even more inelastic than high security water entitlements. The price elasticity of supply for general security water entitlements is similar to high security water entitlements, while the supply of low reliability water entitlements is extremely inelastic for our data set. The comparison between the stated and revealed preference data provides strong evidence of support for a data fusion approach; nevertheless, some differences in water sale preferences were found for irrigators choosing not to sell all of their water. The consistency of our results signals support for the use of this methodology in other water basins around the world.
    Keywords: Q21 - Demand and Supply, Q25 - Water
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 10
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    Extension and Matching Grants for Improved Management: An Evaluation of the Uruguayan Livestock Program (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: Offering matching grants along with extension services is a common tool of agricultural development policy and has the potential to address some of the shortcomings of purely private or public extension. Yet the evidence for the effectiveness of programs that combine extension with matching grants is quite thin. We add to this evidence by evaluating the Uruguayan Livestock Program (ULP), a program that promoted the adoption of intensive management practices by small and medium-sized cattle producers by offering extension from private providers combined with matching grants for investments. Using inverse probability weighting as applied to an eight-year panel data set of cattle producers, we find that the ULP had large impacts on net sales and production of calves, but that program impacts on production and sales translated into modest net economic impacts overall. We examine the mechanisms that may have driven ULP impacts, and conclude that program impacts were likely caused by improved management practices rather than by loosening liquidity constraints on producers.
    Keywords: O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products, O22 - Project Analysis, Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q16 - R&D ; Agricultural Technology ; Agricultural Extension Services
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 11
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    The Economic Costs of Environmental Regulation in U.S. Dairy Farming: A Directional Distance Function Approach (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: Analyses of the costs of regulating greenhouse gas emissions from dairy production, which could be used to assess the effectiveness of alternative policy measures, is a missing link in the literature. This article addresses this gap by establishing the economic impact associated with a hypothetical greenhouse gas environmental regulatory regime across major dairy producing counties in the United States. In doing so, the article makes three important contributions to the literature. First, it develops a comprehensive pollution index based on Environmental Protection Agency methodologies, which contrasts with previous studies that rely on partial measures based only on surplus nitrogen stemming from the over-application of fertilizer. Second, the article uses a directional output distance function, an approach that has not been employed previously to evaluate polluting technologies in the U.S. dairy sector. Third, the article incorporates a four-way error approach that accounts for unobserved county heterogeneity, time-invariant persistent technical efficiency, time-varying transient technical efficiency, and a random error. The results indicate that regulating greenhouse gas emissions from dairy farming would induce a 5-percentage point increase in average technical efficiency. In addition, the economic costs of implementing this hypothetical regulatory framework exhibit significant spatial variation across counties in the United States.
    Keywords: D22 - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis, Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation, Q52 - Pollution Control Costs ; Distributional Effects ; Employment Effects
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 12
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    Property Rights and Choice: The Case of the Fishery (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: Formal property rights are typically established after considerable waste has occurred, despite the effectiveness of such schemes in addressing the inefficiencies of common pool resources. Adoption can be contentious because of the assignment of wealth and political influence that accompany the transition to exclusive property rights. This paper studies how the early involvement of harvesters in policy implementation designed to address the commons’ inefficiency may foster perceived legitimacy and lessen political opposition to the establishment of individual property rights. We demonstrate that it is optimal for a manager facing industry strife and reform delay to allow firms to self-select into the property rights regime. The strategic interaction of harvesters leads to an equilibrium characterized by the global adoption of property rights. Thus, by providing harvesters with a choice between management systems, policy makers can reduce the transaction costs associated with the need to create political consensus, while ensuring an outcome similar to the top-down implementation of market-based management. Evidence is provided from a recent policy change in Maryland fisheries in which the provision of a choice resulted in the overwhelming adoption of individual transferable quotas and the end of the race to fish.
    Keywords: D03 - Behavioral Economics ; Underlying Principles, D23 - Organizational Behavior ; Transaction Costs ; Property Rights, D45 - Rationing ; Licensing, D61 - Allocative Efficiency ; Cost-Benefit Analysis, D62 - Externalities, D86 - Economics of Contract: Theory, Q20 - General, Q22 - Fishery ; Aquaculture
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 13
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    Following Up on Smallholder Farmers and Supermarkets in Kenya (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: In many developing countries, supermarkets are expanding rapidly. This affects farmers’ marketing options. Previous studies have analyzed welfare effects of smallholder participation in supermarket channels from a static perspective, using cross-section data. We develop a conceptual framework and use panel data to better understand participation and impact dynamics. The analysis focuses on vegetable producers in Kenya. Participation in supermarket channels is associated with income gains. However, many farmers have dropped out of the supermarket channel due to various constraints. The initial income gains cannot be sustained when returning to the traditional market. Organizational support may be needed to avoid widening income disparities.
    Keywords: L24 - Contracting Out ; Joint Ventures ; Technology Licensing, O12 - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products, Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 14
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    Cover Page (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 15
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    Rural Bound: Determinants of Metro to Non-Metro Migration in the United States (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: A general global precept is that agglomeration forces lead to migration from rural to urban areas. Yet for much of the time since the early 1970s, more people have moved from metro to nonmetro U.S. counties. The underlying causes of this pattern have changed over time with economic shocks and changing household preferences. For instance, the post 2000 period has seen a significant decline in domestic migration rates, a significant increase in commodity prices that favor rural areas, and potential changes in the valuation of natural amenities that would affect migration. This article investigates the determinants of U.S. gross migration from metro to nonmetro counties and nonmetro to metro counties for the 1995–2000 and 2005–2009 periods in order to compare the differences in rural to urban and urban to rural migration, as well as compare the 1990s to the 2005–2009 periods. More specifically, the present study extends the literature by more broadly examining the underlying factors associated with deconcentration and economic restructuring arguments of metro to nonmetro migration. The article uses (1) extensive county-to-county migration flows and (2) the utility maximization theory that extends the framework of a discrete choice model. The results show that population density, distance to urban areas, industry mix employment growth, natural amenities, and percentage of older people are key factors underlying these migration patterns. We also find a slight fading of effects of natural amenities and population density, and a slight increase in the effects of wage and employment growth from 2005–2009.
    Keywords: J11 - Demographic Trends and Forecasts, J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility ; Immigrant Workers, R11 - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, and Changes
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 16
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    The Induced Innovation Hypothesis and U.S. Public Agricultural Research (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: Applicability of the induced innovation hypothesis—that a change in relative input prices induces innovation to economize use of the increasingly expensive input ( Hicks 1932 )—is examined for U.S. public agricultural research. A reduced-form test is developed using input prices from the agricultural production sector, expenditures from the public research sector aimed at developing new technology to save specific agricultural inputs, and variables to control for innovation marginal cost differences and nonhomotheticity. Unlike recent demand-side studies that soundly reject the induced innovation hypothesis for agriculture, support for the hypothesis is found for several input pairings through these tests of public agricultural research using state-level panel data.
    Keywords: D24 - Production ; Cost ; Capital and Total Factor Productivity ; Capacity, O30 - General
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 17
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    The Yield of Plant Variety Protection (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: The prospects for plant variety protection to deliver improved varieties of self-pollinating crops is assessed using the experience of the Australian wheat breeding sector as a natural experiment. The analysis is based on detailed new data on the agronomic performance of all wheat varieties released by Australian breeders between 1976 and 2011. The results indicate that plant variety protection, and associated reforms, led to a substantial fall in breeder output. Qualitative evidence indicates that this was caused by a combination of fewer research spillovers, lower release standards, and a possible fall in total investment in breeding.
    Keywords: O34 - Intellectual Property Rights, Q16 - R&D ; Agricultural Technology ; Agricultural Extension Services, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 18
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    Why Do Fewer Agricultural Workers Migrate Now? (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: The share of agricultural workers who migrate within the United States has fallen by approximately 60% since the late 1990s. To explain this decline in the migration rate, we estimate annual migration-choice models using data from the National Agricultural Workers Survey for 1989–2009. On average, over the last decade of the sample, one-third of the fall in the migration rate was due to changes in the demographic composition of the workforce, while two-thirds was due to changes in coefficients ("structural" change). In some years, demographic changes were responsible for half of the overall change.
    Keywords: J43 - Agricultural Labor Markets, J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility ; Immigrant Workers, J82 - Labor Force Composition, Q19 - Other
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 19
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    Copula-Based Models of Systemic Risk in U.S. Agriculture: Implications for Crop Insurance and Reinsurance Contracts (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: The federal crop insurance program has been a major fixture of U.S. agricultural policy since the 1930s, and continues to grow in size and importance. Indeed, it now represents the most prominent farm policy instrument, accounting for more government spending than any other farm commodity program. The 2014 Farm Bill further expanded the crop insurance program and introduced a number of new county-level revenue insurance plans. In 2013, over $123 billion in crop value was insured under the program. Crop revenue insurance, first introduced in the 1990s, now accounts for nearly 70% of the total liability in the program. The available plans cover losses that result from a revenue shortfall that can be triggered by multiple, dependent sources of risk—either low prices, low yields, or a combination of both. The actuarial practices currently applied when rating these plans essentially involve the application of a Gaussian copula model to the pricing of dependent risks. We evaluate the suitability of this assumption by considering a number of alternative copula models. In particular, we use combinations of pair-wise copulas of conditional distributions to model multiple sources of risk. We find that this approach is generally preferred by model-fitting criteria in the applications considered here. We demonstrate that alternative approaches to modeling dependencies in a portfolio of risks may have significant implications for premium rates in crop insurance.
    Keywords: G22 - Insurance ; Insurance Companies, Q14 - Agricultural Finance
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Subscription Page (2015)
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    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Irrigated Agricultural Adaptation to Water and Climate Variability: The Economic Value of a Water Portfolio (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: Increasing aridity, more frequent and intense drought, and greater degrees of water scarcity create unique challenges for agriculture. In response to these challenges, which often manifest themselves as lower and more variable surface water supplies, as well as depleted and degraded ground water supplies, growers tend to seek opportunities to adapt. One option for growers to reduce their exposure to water scarcity and heightened uncertainty is to diversify. Indeed, access to a portfolio of supplies is one way in which water and irrigation districts, as well as individual growers, are responding to the changing landscape of water resource availability. This article evaluates the benefits to irrigated agriculture from having access to multiple sources of water. With farm-level information on 1,900 agricultural parcels across California, we use the hedonic property value method to investigate the extent that growers benefit from having access to multiple sources of water (i.e., a water portfolio). Our results suggest that while lower quality waters, less reliable water, and less water all negatively impact agricultural land values, holding a water portfolio has a positive impact on land values through its role in mitigating the negative aspects of these factors and reducing the sensitivity of agriculture to climate-related factors. From a policy perspective, such results identify a valuable adaptation tool that irrigation districts may consider to help offset the negative impacts of climate change, drought, and population increases on water supply availability and reliability.
    Keywords: Q10 - General, Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q50 - General, Q51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Externalities and Simultaneity in Surface Water-Groundwater Systems: Challenges for Water Rights Institutions (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: When surface water and groundwater resources are hydraulically connected, groundwater pumping may reduce surface water flows. In recognition of hydraulic connectivity between surface and groundwater resources, many states in the western United States have begun to develop systems of conjunctive administration in which property rights for surface water and groundwater are jointly managed. Implementing conjunctive administration requires an understanding of when and where surface and groundwater resources are connected. This article analyzes how decisions about water use and changes in irrigation technology influence connectivity across space and time, generating a challenge for policy instrument design. I develop and estimate an econometric model that reflects the simultaneity in surface and groundwater levels that arises due to the two-way flow of water in a hydraulically connected system. The model also traces the effect of changes in irrigation technology on consumptive water use and return flows, and the consequences for changes in water availability. Estimation results using a panel dataset for the Eastern Snake River Plain of Idaho from 1960 to 2011 indicate that connectivity between surface and groundwater resources has decreased over time due to declining groundwater levels. Declining groundwater levels are attributable not only to groundwater pumping, but also to a widespread shift from flood to sprinkler irrigation. This transition in irrigation technology has conserved surface water but depleted groundwater by reducing aquifer recharge. As connectivity declines, reducing groundwater pumping to augment surface water flows, a common approach to conjunctive administration, yields diminishing marginal benefits.
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Endogeneity Corrected Stochastic Production Frontier and Technical Efficiency (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: A major econometric issue in estimating production parameters and technical efficiency is the possibility that some forces influencing production are only observed by the firm and not by the econometrician. Not only can this misspecification lead to a biased inference on the output elasticity of inputs, but it also provides a faulty measure of technical efficiency. We extend the Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) approach and provide an estimation algorithm to overcome the problem of endogenous input choice in stochastic production frontier estimation by generating consistent estimates of production parameters and technical efficiency. We apply the proposed method to a plant-level panel dataset from the Colombian food manufacturing sector for the period 1982–1998. This dataset provides the value of output and prices charged for each product, expenditures, and prices paid for each material used, energy consumption in kilowatt per hour and energy prices, number of workers and payroll, and book values of capital stock. Empirical results find that the traditional stochastic production frontier tends to underestimate the output elasticity of capital and firm-level technical efficiency. The evidence in this research suggests that addressing the endogeneity issue matters in stochastic production frontier analysis.
    Keywords: D21 - Firm Behavior, L25 - Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    The Impact of AD HOC Disaster and Crop Insurance Programs on the Use of Risk-Reducing Conservation Tillage Practices (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: The paper estimates the impacts of risk-reducing government programs on the use of conservation tillage (no-till and other conservation tillage) practices in agriculture. Conservation tillage can be used to reduce production risk from weather shocks. However, subsidized crop insurance and disaster payments also reduce risk through financial assistance. The paper examines the extent to which risk-reducing tillage practices and government programs are substitutes for each other. The economic model shows that a decline in average weather conditions increases the use of conservation tillage. The economic model also shows that the impact of weather risk and risk aversion on risk-reducing practices like conservation tillage are ambiguous. The effect depends on the degree that losses are offset by government payments. The paper uses county-level tillage practice data from the Conservation Tillage Information Center for the three-state region of Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Results are estimated using instrumental variables and spatial panel data techniques. Instruments for the program participation and payment data include political variables and weather data. The empirical analysis shows that recent disaster and indemnity payments are associated with an increase in the use of no-till and a decrease in the use of other conservation till. Results also show that producers in counties with recent drought and flood events are more likely to use other conservation tillage. The results imply that there may be unintended impacts of changes to agricultural policies like disaster payments and crop insurance on the use of on-farm conservation practices.
    Keywords: Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q24 - Land, Q28 - Government Policy
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Inefficiency of Male and Female Labor Supply in Agricultural Households: Evidence from Uganda (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: This article analyzes the efficiency of the intra-household allocation of female and male labor inputs in agricultural production. In a collective household model, spouses’ optimal on-farm labor supply is such that the marginal rate of technical substitution between male and female labor is equated over different crops. Using the Uganda National Household Survey 2005/06, we test whether this condition holds by estimating production functions and controlling for endogeneity using a method proposed by Gandhi, Navarro, and Rivers (2009) . We find that women are less productive than men, that there is more female labor input on low productivity parcels, and that men are relatively more productive on female-controlled plots compared with male-controlled plots. Total farm output could be higher and Pareto improvements could be possible if male labor was reallocated to female-controlled plots and/or female labor was reallocated to male-controlled plots.
    Keywords: D13 - Household Production and Intrahousehold Allocation, J16 - Economics of Gender ; Non-labor Discrimination, O12 - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
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    Model Choice and Size Distribution: A Bayequentist Approach (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: We propose a new three-step model-selection framework for size distributions in empirical data. It generalizes a recent frequentist plausibility-of-fit analysis (step 1) and combines it with a relative ranking based on the Bayesian Akaike information criterion (step 2). We enhance these statistical criteria with the additional criterion of microfoundation (step 3), which is to select the size distribution that comes with a dynamic micromodel of size dynamics. A numerical performance test of step 1 shows that our generalization is able to correctly rule out the distribution hypotheses unjustified by the data at hand. We then illustrate our approach and demonstrate its usefulness with a sample of commercial cattle farms in Namibia. In conclusion, the framework proposed here has the potential to reconcile the ongoing debate about size distribution models in empirical data, the two most prominent of which are the Pareto and the log-normal distribution.
    Keywords: C12 - Hypothesis Testing, C52 - Model Evaluation and Selection, D30 - General, D31 - Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions, O44 Environment and Growth
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    Optimal Directions for Directional Distance Functions: An Exploration of Potential Reductions of Greenhouse Gases (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: This article explores the reduction potential of greenhouse gases for major pollution-emitting countries of the world using nonparametric productivity measurement methods and directional distance functions. In contrast to the existing literature, we apply optimization methods to endogenously determine optimal directions for the efficiency analysis. These directions represent the compromise of output enhancement and emissions reduction. The results show that for reasonable directions the adoption of best practices would lead to sizable emission reductions in a range of approximately 20% compared with current levels.
    Keywords: C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods, D24 - Production ; Cost ; Capital and Total Factor Productivity ; Capacity, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
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    Cover Page (2015)
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    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
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    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
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    Effects of Short-Term Measures to Curb Air Pollution: Evidence from Santiago, Chile (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: It is well established that exposure to high levels of air pollution in the short term leads to negative health outcomes; yet there exist very few policies intended to address short run spikes in air pollution. In this article we examine a policy implemented by the Government of Chile that uses temporary measures to reduce the severity and negative health impacts of poor air quality in the short run. This policy involves the announcement of "Environmental Episodes" on days forecast to have particularly poor air quality. Such Episode announcements trigger a number of government protocols and public notices intended to both improve regional air quality and encourage avoidance behaviors among the populace. By comparing days on which Episodes were announced to observationally similar days before the policy was fully implemented, we demonstrate that the announcement of an Environmental Episode reduces ambient concentrations of particulate matter in the Santiago Metropolitan Region by approximately 20% on the day of implementation, with effects persisting into subsequent days. We also find that the temporary restrictions, government actions, and informational campaigns that make up an Episode reduce mortality among the elderly on the day-of and days-after Episode implementation. Our findings suggest that the Environmental Episode program effectively addresses poor air quality in the short term and could serve as a valuable model for policymakers seeking to augment long-term air quality strategies with a means of addressing temporary spikes in local or regional air pollution levels.
    Keywords: Q53 - Air Pollution ; Water Pollution ; Noise ; Hazardous Waste ; Solid Waste ; Recycling, Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounting ; , Q58 - Government Policy
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    Direct Payments, Spatial Competition, and Farm Survival in Norway (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: We argue that farm survival is influenced by neighboring farmers’ characteristics and, in particular, by the direct payments neighboring farmers receive. The article shows empirically that these interdependencies are crucial for an assessment of the effects of direct payments on farm survival. Using spatially explicit farm-level data for nearly all Norwegian farms, a spatial probit model is estimated to explain farm survival from 1999 to 2009 controlling for spatial farm interdependence. We show that ignoring spatial interdependencies between farms leads to a substantial overestimation of the effects of direct payments on farm survival. To our knowledge, this article is the first attempt to empirically analyze the importance of neighboring interdependencies for the effects of direct payments on farm survival.
    Keywords: C21 - Cross-Sectional Models ; Spatial Models ; Treatment Effect Models, C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
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    A Birth-Death Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method to Estimate the Number of States in a State-Contingent Production Frontier Model (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: In this article we estimate a state-contingent production frontier for a group of farms while endogenously estimating the number of states of nature induced by unobserved environmental variables. This estimation is conducted by using a birth-death Markov chain Monte Carlo method. State-contingent output is estimated conditioned on an observed input vector and an a priori unknown number of unobserved states, each of which is modeled as a component of a mixture of Gaussian distributions. In a panel data application, state-independent dummy variables are used to control for time effects. The model is applied to 44 rice farms in the Philippines operating between 1990 and 1997. The endogenous estimation procedure indicates a unimodal posterior probability distribution on the number of states, with a median of three states. The estimated posterior coefficient values and their economic implications are compared to those of previous research that had assumed a fixed number of states determined exogenously. Goodness-of-fit testing is performed for the first time for a state-contingent production model. The results indicate satisfactory fit and also provide insights regarding the degree of estimation error reduction achieved by utilizing a distribution for the number of states instead of a point estimate. All of our models show significant improvement in terms of mean squared error of in-sample predictions against previous work. This application also demonstrates that using a state-independent dummy time trend instead of a state-contingent linear time trend leads to slightly smaller differences in state mean output levels, although input elasticities remain state-contingent.
    Keywords: C30 - General, C50 - General, C60 - General, Q10 - General
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    The Happy Farmer: The Effect of Nonpecuniary Benefits on Behavior (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: I test empirically the relationship between farmers’ perceptions of the nonpecuniary benefits from farming with a variety of field behaviors such as disinvestment, production, diversification, and off-farm labor market participation. Results suggest that nonpecuniary benefits have an important influence on a wide range of farmer activities. While costs and returns are clearly important, I suggest that nonpecuniary benefits may make some choices more attractive than others which may be more rewarding financially.
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    To Bid or Not to Bid: The Role of Participation Rates in Conservation Auction Outcomes (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: In this article, I jointly analyze stated willingness to accept values with revealed auction bids from fishing license buybacks in the Chesapeake Bay blue crab fishery in order to better understand the link between participation decisions and conservation outcomes. In contrast with theoretical expectations, I find individuals with the lowest willingness to accept participated in these reverse auctions at lower rates than other eligible individuals, all else being equal. This suggests that who bids in an auction plays an important role in the success of conservation outcomes. These results indicate that market design should expand to consider how, and whether, the economic incentives underlying auction participation align with desired conservation outcomes, both within fisheries and in natural resource management more broadly.
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    A Triple-Hurdle Model of Production and Market Participation in Kenya's Dairy Market (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: Existing analyses of market participation are based on a "double-hurdle" modeling approach. Such models are appropriate only when all members of the population of interest actually produce the good. In some contexts, however (e.g., smallholder farmers), many members of the population do not produce particular goods that they could produce and that their neighbors do produce. Policies influencing market participation among producers may thus also induce additional farmers to become producers. Previous double-hurdle approaches do not allow explicitly for this possibility. To address these limitations, this article presents a "triple-hurdle" approach with an initial stage that includes nonproducers. The model is used to identify the factors associated with Kenyan smallholder farmers choosing to participate in dairy production, and the role that these producers choose to play (or not) in the marketplace. In the midst of debates underway over the privatization of the parastatal Kenya Creameries Company, new knowledge about smallholder participation in dairy could be an important contribution. Results suggest the importance of rural electrification, training, and improved grazing practices. We find that expected net sales are significantly higher when farmers have access to informal private markets. We also describe a version of the ordered tobit model that includes nonproducers and is nested in our triple-hurdle model. A likelihood ratio test shows the latter to be a significantly better fit to our data. We discuss how insights gained from this study differ from the insights that would come from a double-hurdle ordered tobit that also includes nonproducers.
    Keywords: C51 - Model Construction and Estimation, C81 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data, O12 - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy
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    Substitutes or Complements? Consumer Preference for Local and Organic Food Attributes (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: This research examines consumer preference and compares their willingness-to-pay for a host of value-added attributes of processed blackberry jam, and focuses on various organic and local production location designations. Instead of being treated as a binary attribute, three levels of USDA organic are considered: 100% organic, at least 95% organic, and made with organic ingredients (at least 70% organic). For local production, three levels are also included in the analysis: cross-state region (the Ohio Valley), state boundary (state-proud logos), as well as sub-state regions. Stated-preference data collected from a choice experiment in a mail survey in Kentucky and Ohio are used. Results from the study confirm positive willingness-to-pay for both organic and local attributes. However, consumers were willing to pay comparatively more for jam produced locally in regions smaller than the border of a state compared to organic jam. Furthermore, substitution and complementary effects between food attributes were investigated. The study found strong substitution effects between organic and local production claims, an issue that has thus far received minimal treatment in the existing literature on organic and local food willingness-to-pay studies. The results indicate a large degree of overlapping values in the willingness-to-pay for these two food attributes. In addition, the "small farm" attribute considered in the study also appears to be a substitute for organic and local attributes, which confirms the previous belief that one of the many reasons consumers purchase organic or local products is to support small or family-owned farms.
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Distributional Implications of Climate Change in Rural India: A General Equilibrium Approach (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: We develop a general equilibrium framework, based on a specific-factors trade model, to quantify the medium-term household welfare impacts of global warming in rural India. Using an hedonic approach grounded in the theory combined with detailed microdata, we estimate that three decades of warming will reduce agricultural productivity in the range of 7%–13%, with the arid northwest of India especially hard hit. Our analysis shows that the proportional welfare cost of climate change is likely to be both modest and evenly distributed across percentiles of the per capita income distribution, but this latter conclusion emerges only when the flexibility of rural wages is taken into account.
    Keywords: Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    The Political Economy of Food Price Volatility: The Case of Vietnam and Rice (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: This article argues that the structure of the Vietnamese rice export system is, in political economy terms, a rational response to the volatility present in the international rice market. In particular, it is argued that the Vietnamese Food Agency, along with VINAFOOD-1 and VINAFOOD-2, have been structured so that they can benefit from the domestic demands for export restrictions anticipated to occur as a consequence of international price volatility and the psychological demand of consumers for price stability. In turn, the actions of these agencies also contribute to international price volatility and the resulting demand for export restrictions. Since the political and economic elite in Vietnam obtain both political and economic power from this system, it is unlikely to be replaced with more effective and efficient policies to combat domestic price volatility. Thus, continued volatility in the price of rice can be expected.
    Keywords: N55 - Asia including Middle East, P26 - Political Economy ; Property Rights, Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy
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    What Happens When Food Marketers Require Restrictive Farming Practices? (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: The dimensions that define a food product have expanded rapidly to include characteristics of the production process, marketing arrangements, and implications that production and consumption of the product have for the environment. Some market intermediaries have responded by requiring that their suppliers abide by restrictive production practices. We examine the economic effects of such restrictions and apply this analysis to limitations on the use of antibiotics in U.S. pork production. Results from conceptual and simulation analyses show that, in the absence of demand growth, less pork is sold due to higher costs in the restricted segment, and both pork consumers (on average) and producers are harmed. Demand growth of between 6–11% from adding new consumers who will consume the restricted (antibiotic-free) product but not the conventional product is needed to return consumer surplus to the level in the base case, and between 2–4% demand growth was required to return producer surplus to base. When restricted and conventional products are modeled using a vertical differentiation framework, results depend importantly on the ease with which consumers can switch to a seller who offers their desired product type. Significant distributional impacts among consumers are present when switching costs are prohibitive.
    Keywords: I18 - Government Policy ; Regulation ; Public Health, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
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    Asia-Pacific Integration with China versus the United States: Examining Trade Patterns under Heterogeneous Agricultural Sectors (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
    Description: This article examines bilateral trade patterns in the Asia-Pacific using a new model in which comparative advantage within the agricultural sector is linked to agro-ecological characteristics, and trade costs are product-specific. Bilateral market share is a function of productivity and trade costs. However, countries with similar land and climate characteristics systematically have high productivity in similar products making them disproportionately sensitive to changes in each other's trade costs. We use a random coefficients logit model to estimate a parametric distribution of comparative advantage and trade costs across products and calculate regional trade liberalization elasticities for each exporter in each import market. Unlike most existing models, the value of the elasticity depends on the degree to which liberalization includes competitors with similar comparative advantage within the agricultural sector. We find disproportionately larger trade elasticities under China-led liberalization relative to U.S.-led liberalization among close U.S. competitors compared to countries whose agricultural products are unlikely to compete head-to-head with U.S. exports. For the United States, we find that the "lost opportunity" cost of exclusion from regional liberalization is increasing in the extent to which its close competitors gain new access.
    Keywords: F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations, F14 - Country and Industry Studies of Trade, F15 - Economic Integration, Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy
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    The 2014 Farm Bill and the WTO (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
    Description: The 2014 farm bill reduced expected budgetary costs of US farm programs, according to estimates prepared by the Congressional Budget Office. Cost projections are very sensitive to market conditions and program participation assumptions, and stochastic analysis indicates that farm program costs could easily differ from expected values by $5 billion or more in any given year. By replacing direct payments with new policies that make payments tied to market prices and yields, the bill could have important World Trade Organization (WTO) implications. If the new policies are classified as non-commodity specific amber box support, projections indicate that existing WTO limits on the current Aggregate Measure of Support would not be exceeded on average, but could be under some market conditions. Furthermore, the new policies are very likely to exceed some WTO rules proposed by various parties in the Doha Round negotiations.
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Political Economy of the 2014 Farm Bill (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
    Description: This article assesses the political economy of the 2014 U.S. farm bill, with a focus on the farm support safety net. The farm bill secured substantial bipartisan majorities in a politically contentious Congress. Planned outlays are predominately for nutrition assistance programs directed toward a traditional nonfarm constituency in the farm bill coalition, while annual fixed direct payments to farmers are eliminated but replaced with enhanced downside risk protection against low prices or revenue. The new support programs may prove more or less costly than the foregone fixed payments, with farmers offered a choice between a price countercyclical program with increased reference prices and a revised moving-average revenue guarantee program. The role of insurance is enhanced, notably by replacing past support programs with a new upland cotton revenue insurance program and dairy milk-to-feed margin protection program. Open policy issues that are highlighted include the costs and distortionary effects of moving-average revenue benchmarks versus fixed reference prices, the overall level of insurance premium subsidies, the potential for overlap between commodity and insurance programs, and lastly, food, environmental, and biofuels concerns that reflect the diverse portfolio of products demanded from agriculture. In an international context, we conclude that the 2014 farm safety net likely would not have been enacted had multilateral agreement been reached on the 2008 Doha Round World Trade Organization negotiating documents. Conversely, the 2014 farm bill makes achieving those limits more difficult. Research is discussed that can elucidate the ongoing political economy of U.S. farm policy and help shape future program design.
    Keywords: K33 - International Law, N52 - U.S. ; Canada: 1913-, Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q28 - Government Policy
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    Cover Page (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Long-run and Global R&D Funding Trajectories: The U.S. Farm Bill in a Changing Context (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
    Description: Domestically funded (and performed) research and development (R&D) has historically been a major source of productivity gains in U.S. agriculture, and a principal source of R&D spillovers to the rest of the world. In the waning decades of the 20th century, U.S. policymakers opted to ratchet down the rate of growth in public support for food and agricultural R&D. As the 21st century unfolds, slowing growth has given way to real cutbacks, reversing the accumulation of U.S.-sourced public R&D capital over most of the previous century and more. The 2014 Farm Bill did little to reverse these long-run research funding trajectories—politicians failed to heed the economic evidence about the still substantial social payoffs of that research and the consequent slowdown in U.S. agricultural productivity growth associated with the spending slowdown. Meanwhile, R&D spending by other countries has been moving in different directions. We present new evidence that today's middle-income countries—notably China, Brazil, and India— are not only growing in relative importance as producers of agricultural innovations through investments in public R&D, they are also gaining considerable ground in terms of their share of privately performed research of relevance for agriculture. The already substantive changes in global public and private R&D investment trajectories are accelerating. If history is any guide to the future, these changing R&D trajectories could have profound consequences for the competitiveness of U.S. agriculture in the decades ahead.
    Keywords: O38 - Government Policy, Q16 - R&D ; Agricultural Technology ; Agricultural Extension Services
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    A General Equilibrium Theory of Contracts in Community Supported Agriculture (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
    Description: Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) contracts allow consumers to buy claims on a farm's future production. In turn, the consumer provides working capital to the farm during the growing season. CSA contracts also provide risk management for farmers with limited access to Federal crop insurance by transferring part of the farm's risk to the consumer. We derive a theory of CSA contract pricing for the two most prevalent types of CSA contracts: yield contracts, in which consumers receive a percentage of the farm's production, and weight contracts, in which consumers receive fixed quantities. We develop a two-period model in which expected utility maximizing producers and consumers engage in CSA contracting in the first period based on anticipation of yields and spot prices in the second period. Using the model, we generate several testable hypotheses to be explored in future research. Additionally, we present an overview of the data necessary to test the propositions and potential challenges that might arise in related empirical work.
    Keywords: Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness, Q14 - Agricultural Finance
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Marketing Contracts and Crop Insurance (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
    Description: Contracts between farmers and intermediaries and crop insurers are important means for farmers to mitigate risks in modern U.S. agriculture. In this paper, we investigate the effect of crop insurance enrollment on contract terms and farmers’ participation in marketing contracts. Following Ligon (2003) , we set up a mechanism design framework to demonstrate an intermediary's contract design problem, where farmers are assumed to be utility maximizing agents. We depict farmers’ optimal choices of insurance coverage using the specification developed by Babcock (2012) . Our model shows that improved terms of crop insurance (lower premiums, higher subsidies) make contracts less appealing to farmers as mechanisms for mitigating risk. Therefore, intermediaries may revise their contract offers so that they are more attractive. However, improvements in contract terms are limited by their cost to the intermediaries and will not lead to expanded participation in contracts.
    Keywords: Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy
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    Does Healthy Food Access Matter in a French Urban Setting? (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
    Description: Limited access to healthy food is commonly regarded as a contributing factor to poor dietary choices. The objective of this article is to test this hypothesis in a French context given France's increasing obesity rates and incidence of poor dietary habits. We use data on fruit and vegetable consumption frequency and different food retail availability measures, for example the number of food stores, food surface area, and a dispersion measure based on store numbers, store types, and food area surface, from several data sources in France. We also employ different types of geographic units when measuring the food retail environment and instrumental variable model specifications to test the robustness of our results, which indicate that fewer but larger retail outlets increase the odds of consuming the recommended level of fruit and vegetables. We also find that an increase in food supply dispersion will improve fruit and vegetable consumption in Paris, but not in its suburbs.
    Keywords: D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis, L66 - Food ; Beverages ; Cosmetics ; Tobacco ; Wine and Spirits, P46 - Consumer Economics ; Welfare and Poverty
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    Estimation of Input Distance Functions: A System Approach (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
    Description: This article offers a methodology to address the endogeneity of inputs in the input distance function (IDF) formulation of the production processes. We propose to tackle endogenous input ratios appearing in the normalized IDF by considering a flexible (simultaneous) system of the IDF and the first-order conditions from the firm's cost minimization problem. Our model can accommodate both technical and (input) allocative inefficiencies among firms. We also present the algorithm for quantifying the cost of allocative inefficiency. We showcase our cost-system-based model by applying it to study the production of Norwegian dairy farms during the 1991–2008 period. Among other things, we find both an economically and statistically significant improvement in the levels of technical efficiency among dairy farms associated with the 1997 quota scheme change, which a more conventional single-equation stochastic frontier model appears to be unable to detect.
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    Estimating Yield Gaps With Limited Data: An Application to United States Wheat (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
    Description: The objective of this research is to estimate and analyze the gap between in-trial yield potential, on-farm yield potential, and actual on-farm wheat yields. Yield gaps are quantified by measuring how varietal mean yields have changed over time, due to productivity increases generated by public and private wheat breeding programs. Variety performance trial data for Kansas winter wheat are used to summarize the evolution of wheat yields over the time period 1985 to 2011. A measure of yield potential is compared to actual on-farm yields to derive implications for wheat industry stakeholders. Persistent and expanding yield gaps between potential yield and actual on-farm yield are measured and analyzed. Producers’ variety adoption decisions explain a relatively small portion of this gap, and producers have become more effective at identifying and adopting yield-enhancing varieties over time. The largest portion of these gaps was explained by on-farm production decisions.
    Keywords: O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences ; Diffusion Processes, Q16 - R&D ; Agricultural Technology ; Agricultural Extension Services
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    Examining Dynamically Changing Timber Market Linkages (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
    Description: Market integration has been widely studied in the past to gain a better understanding of how different markets for the same good interact with one another. Traditional cointegration tests have been used to perform these analyses; however, these tests can only reveal the presence of stable or average long-term relationships. To evaluate market dynamics over time, we modify a time-varying smooth transition autoregressive (TV-STAR) model to examine pine stumpage markets in the US South. The proposed model incorporates an economic indicator and allows us to evaluate market integration as it changes throughout a specified time period. The potential significance of this work is twofold. First, market integration can be observed as a function of an economic indicator, and secondly, the proposed model will allow us to draw inference about market integration at specific time points.
    Keywords: C22 - Time-Series Models, E30 - General, Q23 - Forestry, R30 - General
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    The Hidden Cost of Regulation: Emotional Responses to Command and Control (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
    Description: In economic models of behavior, consumers are assumed to value the goods and services they purchase based on stable preferences over externally identifiable attributes such as quality. These models predict that consumers will respond to changes in price in a way that is independent of the source of the price change. Yet research in the behavioral sciences indicates that consumers that are emotionally attached to a consumption good or other behavior might respond with resistance when policies threaten their consumption or behavior. Moreover, policies that in fact validate some emotional attachments can stir a stronger preference for the good or behavior. Reviewing both survey and experimental data from the literature, we demonstrate how such emotional responses can create hidden costs to policy implementation that could not be detected using standard welfare economic techniques. Building upon Rabin's work on fairness in games, we propose a partial equilibrium model of emotional response to policy whereby preferences are endogenous to policy choices. In accordance with evidence both from our own analysis and the field, we propose that confrontational policies (such as a sin tax) increase the marginal utility for a good, and that validating policies (such as a subsidy) also increases the marginal utility for a good. A social planner that ignores potential emotional responses to policy changes may unwittingly induce significant dead weight loss. Using our model, we propose a feasible method to determine if emotional deadweight costs exist, and to place a lower bound on the size of these costs.
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    The Economics of Brazil's Ethanol-Sugar Markets, Mandates, and Tax Exemptions (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
    Description: Sugarcane in Brazil is processed into sugar and/or ethanol, often in flex plants that can switch between the two products. We develop an economic model of flex plants, export demands, and two domestic fuel demand curves for a blend of ethanol with gasoline consumed by conventional cars, and ethanol consumed only by flex cars. We analyze the market impacts of the following policies: the blend mandate; fixing gasoline prices below world prices; the high gasoline tax; and a higher tax exemption for ethanol blended with gasoline. Because Brazilian and U.S. ethanol prices have become linked, a change in Brazilian ethanol policy or a shock in world sugar markets can now impact U.S. ethanol and corn prices. We show that in theory, each policy analyzed has an ambiguous impact on ethanol and sugar prices. Empirically, however, a low gasoline tax and a high tax exemption for ethanol used in the fuel blend reduce ethanol and sugar prices; this contradicts conventional wisdom. Overall, we find that policy reforms implemented in 2010 offset the ethanol price increase by about 27% due to outward shifts in fuel transportation and sugar export demand curves, and due to a reduced sugarcane supply caused by bad weather. Our model illustrates the importance of Brazil's ethanol policies on world commodity markets; it also provides insight into how the Brazilian government can adjust policies to better control domestic inflation while minimizing impacts on investment.
    Keywords: Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q28 - Government Policy, Q42 - Alternative Energy Sources, Q48 - Government Policy
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    The Oxford Handbook of Land Economics (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Growing Local: Case Studies on Local Food Supply Chains (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Food Price Policy in an Era of Market Instability: A Political Economy Approach (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Using Cumulative Prospect Theory to Explain Anomalous Crop Insurance Coverage Choice (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
    Description: Farmers’ decisions about how much crop insurance to buy are not generally consistent with expected utility maximization. Taking into account both marginal risk benefits and marginal subsidy effects suggests that most farmers have chosen lower coverage levels than would be predicted by standard models. By modeling financial outcomes as gains and losses, cumulative prospect theory offers an alternative framework to perhaps better understand farmers’ purchase decisions. The role of the reference point that defines outcomes as either a gain or a loss, the degree of loss aversion, curvature of the value function, and the probability weighting function in determining optimal crop insurance coverage levels are explored for three representative farms calibrated to 2009 conditions. Loss aversion and how crop insurance is framed through choice of the reference point are shown to be the key factors that determine whether predictions from prospect theory are consistent with observed crop insurance coverage choices. When crop insurance is framed as a tool to manage farm risk then optimal choices under prospect theory are not consistent with observed choices. If crop insurance is framed as a stand-alone investment where a loss is felt if the indemnity received is less than the premium paid, then prospect theory can generate optimal coverage level choices that are largely consistent with observed decisions. This result is shown to be robust to changes in parameterizations as long as loss aversion is maintained and if curvature of the value function is accompanied by decision weights that overweight low probability outcomes.
    Keywords: D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty, G20 - General, Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
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    A Global Vector Autoregression Model for the Analysis of Wheat Export Prices (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
    Description: Food commodity price fluctuations have an important impact on poverty and food insecurity across the world. Conventional models have not provided a complete picture of recent price spikes in agricultural commodity markets, and there is an urgent need for appropriate policy responses. Perhaps new approaches are needed to better understand international spill-overs, the feedback between the real and the financial sectors, as well as the link between food and energy prices. In this article, we present the results from a new worldwide dynamic model that provides the short and long-run impulse responses of the international wheat price to various real and financial shocks.
    Keywords: C12 - Hypothesis Testing, C15 - Simulation Methods, G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies, Q14 - Agricultural Finance
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    How Beliefs Influence the Willingness to Contribute to Prevention Expenditure (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
    Description: We study how beliefs affect individuals’ willingness to contribute to prevention expenditure through a two-type, N-person public good game and test several results empirically. We show analytically that pessimistic agents will invest more in prevention expenditure than optimists. We also demonstrate how small differences in beliefs may induce substantial differences in type-related prevention expenditure. The more atomistic agents are, the less they will contribute to the public good. Pessimistic beliefs then lead to a "double deprivation," and we discuss potential issues and remedies. The more optimistic a society is, the lower will be its total green expenditure. We then use a large international survey to study how beliefs and additional controls determine prevention expenditure. We rely on several proxies for beliefs and the willingness to contribute to prevention expenditure, which we combine through principal component analysis. In addition, we investigate the role of environmental education for the relationship between beliefs and the willingness to contribute. Because of potential endogeneity bias due to unobserved variables that are likely to affect both beliefs and the willingness to contribute, we follow the theoretical analysis and resort to a recursive bivariate model. Our main findings are very much in line with the theoretical predictions. We find, across all specifications, that more optimistic beliefs lead to a lower willingness to contribute. Environmental education affects the willingness to contribute only indirectly through its impact on beliefs.
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    Zhao, Tianli. "Economic Modeling of Point-to-Point Water Quality Trading in the Upper Passaic Watershed Accounting for Fixed and Variable Costs." Master's Thesis, Cornell University. Outstanding Master's Thesis (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-09-12
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    Open Innovation in the Food and Beverage Industry (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Real Options Approach to Inter-Sectoral Migration of U.S. Farm Labor (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Cover Page (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
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    Subscription Page (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    The Effect of Food Deserts on the Body Mass Index of Elementary Schoolchildren (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: Families in low-income neighborhoods sometimes lack access to supermarkets that provide a broad range of healthy foods. We investigate whether these so called "food deserts" play a role in childhood obesity using a statewide panel data set of Arkansas elementary schoolchildren. We use fixed-effects panel data regression models to estimate the average food desert effect. We next compare children who left (entered) food deserts to children who were always (never) in food deserts and homogenize samples for those whose food desert status changed as a result of a change in residence and those whose status changed only as a consequence of the entry or exit of a supermarket. We present evidence that exposure to food deserts is associated with higher z-scores for body mass index. On average, this is in the neighborhood of 0.04 standard deviations. The strongest evidence and largest association is among urban students and especially those that transition into food deserts from non-deserts. Our food desert estimates are similar in magnitude to findings reported in earlier work on diet and lifestyle interventions targeting similarly aged schoolchildren. That said, we are unable to conclude that the estimated food desert effect is causal because many of the transitions into or out of food deserts result from a change in residence, an event that is endogenous to the child's household. However, there is evidence that food deserts are a risk indicator and that food desert areas may be obesogenic in ways that other low-income neighborhoods are not.
    Keywords: I14 - Health and Inequality, I19 - Other, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy
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    The Impact of Food Deserts on Food Insufficiency and SNAP Participation among the Elderly (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: Residents of neighborhoods with limited access to grocery stores may face barriers to obtaining adequate food for a healthy diet. Low-income elderly may be uniquely affected by these so-called "food deserts" due to limited transportation options, strong attachments to local neighborhoods, fixed incomes, and physical limitations for food shopping. Using 2006 and 2010 Health and Retirement Study data linked to census tract-level measures of food deserts, this study measures whether living in a food desert affects food and material hardship, participation in food assistance programs, and the food spending of elderly adults. In both cross-sectional and fixed effects regressions of elderly residents of urban counties, we find little evidence that living in a food desert affects these outcomes. We find, however, that individuals residing in a food desert without a vehicle are 12 percentage points more likely to report food insufficiency. Those SNAP recipients living in food deserts are 11 percentage points more likely to receive subsidized meals, while nonparticipants in food deserts and SNAP recipients outside of food deserts are less likely to receive subsidized meals. Our findings suggest that seniors without vehicles and SNAP recipients in food deserts may be the most vulnerable to limited food store access.
    Keywords: I30 - General, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, R12 - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity, R40 - General
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    Neural Activations Associated with Decision-time and Choice in a Milk Labeling Experiment (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: The authors incorporate brain activation data in an analysis of decision time and choices for milk labeled as produced with growth hormone or cloning technologies, or labeled as conventional milk. Non-hypothetical choices and decision time are correlated with blood oxygenation level-dependent extractions in brain regions previously found to be involved in valuation. The significance of the activations related to price and production technology differs in models of decision time and choice. More areas influence the time it takes to make a decision. The final decision appears to be most correlated with localized areas in the medial prefrontal cortex, with a higher correlation when the choice is about growth hormones than cloning technology.
    Keywords: D87 - Neuroeconomics, Q16 - R&D ; Agricultural Technology ; Agricultural Extension Services
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    Can the Economy Explain the Explosion in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Caseload? An Assessment of the Local-level Approach (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has grown rapidly in recent years—by about 50% in the seven years between 2000 and 2007, and by another 70% in the four years between 2007 and 2011—such that in 2011, SNAP served 14% of the U.S. population. Contributing to our understanding of the causes of this very rapid increase in the caseload, this article extends the time period of analysis through and past the official end of the Great Recession, analyzes more geographically disaggregated caseloads and the impact of substate economic conditions, and considers the impact of recent major, state-level SNAP policy changes. In models that exploit substate-level data, we find consistent evidence of significant impacts of both the substate level and statewide economy on local area SNAP caseloads. Surprisingly, while one might have expected more geographically disaggregated data to improve the alignment of the measurement with the concept of interest (i.e., the labor market opportunities of an individual), and therefore lead to larger estimates of the impact of the economy, in fact estimates fall—perhaps due to measurement error. We find at best mixed evidence of policy impacts. Simulations indicate that the economy can account for most of the 2007 to 2011 increase in the caseload, although relatively less of the 2000 to 2007 increase. Nonetheless, the role of the economy in driving caseloads appears to be substantial in both periods.
    Keywords: I38 - Government Policy ; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs, J40 - General
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Organic Label, Bargaining Power, and Profit-sharing in the French Fluid Milk Market (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: The paper determines how the value-added created by an organic label is shared in a vertical chain among manufacturers and retailers. Using purchase data on the French fluid milk sector, we develop a structural econometric model of demand and supply that takes into account the bargaining power between manufacturers and retailers. Our results suggest that the organic label segment is more profitable, as it permits the existence of higher margins. Moreover, an organic label allows manufacturers to achieve more bargaining power relative to retailers, and hence to obtain a higher share of total margins. The econometric model is then used to assess the impact of an environmental policy in favor of the organic segment based on a mechanism of price support. Our results suggest that while a subsidy policy towards organic products benefits both manufacturers and retailers, a tax policy toward conventional products benefits manufacturers of national brands at the expense of retailers and manufacturers that provide the private labels. The benefits of such policies on the environment is relatively small. All such policies tend to increase the impact on global warming and land use, but reduce the impact on eutrophication, acidification, and energy use.
    Keywords: L10 - General, Q19 - Other, Q51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects
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    Evaluating the Law of one Price Using Micro Panel Data: The Case of the French Fish Market (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: This paper investigates spatial variations in product prices using an exhaustive micro dataset on fish transactions. The data includes all transactions between vessels and wholesalers that occurred within local fish markets in France during 2007. Spatial disparities in fish prices are sizable even after taking into account fish quality, time, and unobserved seller and buyer heterogeneity. The price difference between local fish markets can be explained to some extent by distance, but mostly by a coast effect related to market locations on the Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts. We also propose a new approach for identifying groups of interconnected local fish markets based on the activity of sellers and buyers within these markets. We show that most markets on the Atlantic coast are well connected, and that variation in prices across these markets is very small and in line with the law of one price.
    Keywords: L11 - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure ; Size Distribution of Firms, Q22 - Fishery ; Aquaculture, R32 - Other Production and Pricing Analysis
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Global Oil Prices and Local Food Prices: Evidence from East Africa (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: It is widely believed that oil prices impact food prices in developing countries. Yet rigorous evidence on this relationship is scarce. Using maize and petrol price data from east Africa, we show that global oil prices do affect food prices but primarily through transport costs, rather than through biofuel or production cost channels. We find that global oil prices transmit much more rapidly to the pump and then to local maize prices than do global maize prices, suggesting that the immediate effects of correlated commodity price shocks on local food prices are driven more by transport costs than by the prices of the grains themselves. Furthermore, we present suggestive evidence that, for markets furthest inland, changes in world oil prices have larger effects on local maize prices than do changes in world maize prices.
    Keywords: F15 - Economic Integration, O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products, Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Worldwide Acreage and Yield Response to International Price Change and Volatility: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for Wheat, Rice, Corn, and Soybeans (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: This article estimates a worldwide aggregate supply response for key agricultural commodities— wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans—by employing a newly-developed multi-country, crop-calendar-specific, seasonally disaggregated model with price changes and price volatility applied accordingly. The findings reveal that, although higher output prices serve as an incentive to improve global crop supply as expected, output price volatility acts as a disincentive. Depending on the crop, the results show that own-price supply elasticities range from about 0.05 to 0.40. Output price volatility, however, has negative correlations with crop supply, implying that farmers shift land, other inputs, and yield-improving investments to crops with less volatile prices. Simulating the impact of price dynamics since 2006, we find that price risk has reduced the production response of wheat in particular—and to a lesser extent, rice—thus dampening price incentive effects. The simulation analysis shows that the increase in own-crop price volatility from 2006–2010 dampened yield by about 1–2% for the crops under consideration.
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    Responsiveness of Crop Yield and Acreage to Prices and Climate (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: We investigate the effect of crop price and climate variables on rainfed corn and soybean yields and acreage in the United States using a large panel dataset for the 1977–2007 period. Instrumental variables are used to control for endogeneity of prices in yield and acreage regressions, while allowing for spatially auto-correlated errors. We find that an increase in corn price has a statistically significant positive impact on corn yield, but the effect of soybean price on soybean yields is not statistically significant. The estimated price elasticities of corn yield and acreage are 0.23 and 0.45, respectively. Of the increase in corn supply caused by an increase in corn price, we find that 33.8% is due to price-induced yield enhancement and 66.2% is due to price-induced acreage expansion. We also find that the impact of climate change on corn production ranges from $-$ 7% to $-$ 41% and on soybean ranges from $-$ 8% to $-$ 45%, depending on the climate change scenarios, time horizon, and global climate models used to predict climate change. We show that the aggregate net impact of omitting price variables is an overestimation of the effect of climate change on corn yield by up to 9% and on soybean yield by up to 15%.
    Keywords: Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices, Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
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    The Natural Resource Curse and Fiscal Decentralization (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: Natural resource abundance is a blessing for some countries, but a curse for others. We show that differences across countries in the degree of fiscal decentralization can contribute to this divergent outcome. Using a large panel of countries covering several decades and various fiscal decentralization and natural resource measures, we provide empirical support for the novel hypothesis. We also study a model that combines political and market mechanisms under a unified framework to illustrate how natural resource booms may create negative effects in fiscally decentralized nations.
    Keywords: H77 - Intergovernmental Relations ; Federalism ; Secession, O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products, O18 - Regional, Urban, and Rural Analyses, Q32 - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development, Q33 - Resource Booms
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    Valuing Environmental Resources through Demand for Related Commodities (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: We examine the revealed preference theory underlying the welfare analysis of public goods (e.g., environmental quality) by observing the consumption of related commodities. Inspired by Larson (1991) and Ebert (1998) , and extended from Eom and Larson (2006) , an empirical strategy is formulated, consistent with the theory of uniquely deriving use and nonuse values for a change in the public good. We show that the weak complementarity assumption and the Willig condition, the common preference assumptions used to support the revealed preference methods for non-market valuation, may be tested as parameter restrictions. A study of water quality valuation is presented to illustrate the proposed empirical strategy. Results show that the weak complementarity assumption and the Willig condition generally do not hold in the case study, and the consumer surplus derived from the indirect valuation method deviates largely from the exact welfare measures.
    Keywords: H41 - Public Goods, Q26 - Recreational Aspects of Natural Resources, Q51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects, Q53 - Air Pollution ; Water Pollution ; Noise ; Hazardous Waste ; Solid Waste ; Recycling
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    Information Cost and Consumer Choices of Healthy Foods (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: This article examines whether or not a reduction in consumer search cost for nutritional information increases the probability that heterogeneous consumers will choose healthier food products. Empirical results from the ready-to-eat breakfast cereal (RTEC) market confirm the conceptual analysis that lowering information cost via simplified nutritional labeling increases the healthfulness of consumer choices. The healthfulness attribute weighs 28.44% more heavily in consumers' decision-making with simpler labeling systems. On average, introducing front-of-package labeling increased the probability of a consumer choosing a healthy RTEC by 3.49% and reduced the probability of choosing an unhealthy RTEC by 3.81%. Calories, sugar, saturated fat, and sodium consumption decrease by 0.31%, 2.63%, 6.94%, and 1.97%, respectively. Fiber intake increases by 3.24%. Further results show that less-educated and smaller households with less frequent purchases benefit the most from a reduction in information cost. Overall, this article shows the potentially positive role that voluntary, more convenient labeling could play in improving market and public health outcomes.
    Keywords: D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis, I19 - Other, L66 - Food ; Beverages ; Cosmetics ; Tobacco ; Wine and Spirits, M30 - General
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    Information Customization and Food Choice (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: In this article, we employ a hypothetical discrete choice experiment to examine how much consumers are willing to pay to use technology to customize their food shopping. We conjecture that customized information provision can aid in the composition of a healthier shop. Our results reveal that consumers are prepared to pay relatively more for specific information as opposed to the generic nutritional information that is typically provided on food labels. In arriving at these results, we have examined various model specifications including those that use ex post de-briefing questions on attribute non-attendance and attribute-ranking information, and those that consider the time taken to complete the survey. Our main results are robust to the various model specifications we examine.
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    Subscription Page (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
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    Fellows, 1957-2014 (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
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    2014 Fellow John B. Loomis (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
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    2014 Fellow Wade Brorsen (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
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    2014 Fellow Robert P. King (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
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    2014 Fellow Thomas Reardon (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
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    Presidents, 1910-2014 (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
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    Barry K. Goodwin 2014-2015 President (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
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    Agricultural Policy Analysis: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
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    The Role of Economics in Interdisciplinary Environmental Policy Debates: Opportunities and Challenges (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
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    Expenditure Response to Increases in In-Kind Transfers: Evidence from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
    Description: Economic theory predicts that households who receive less in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits than they spend on food will treat SNAP benefits as if they were cash. However, empirical tests of these predictions draw different conclusions. In this study, we reexamine this question using recent increases in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, the largest of which was due to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. We find that increases in benefits cause households to increase their food budget share by more than would be predicted by theory. Results are robust to a host of specification tests.
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    Nutritional Efficiency Wages and Unemployment: Where's the Beef? (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
    Description: We modify the standard nutritional efficiency wage model to allow for the fact that employers can directly provide calories to their workers rather than paying a higher wage to induce employees to spend more on their own caloric consumption. We derive the various theoretical outcomes that are possible depending on the assumptions about the transaction costs of directly providing calories. We argue that in most real-world situations the ability of employers to directly provide calories undermines the traditional efficiency wage theory as a cause of equilibrium unemployment.
    Keywords: J43 - Agricultural Labor Markets, O10 - General, Q10 - General, J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
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    Does Participation in 4-H Improve Schooling Outcomes? Evidence from Florida (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
    Description: We examine the effect that participation in 4-H, the largest youth development program in the United States, has on standardized test scores. We do this by utilizing grade-level longitudinal data on Florida's school districts from the Florida Department of Education, combined with 4-H participation statistics from the Florida 4-H. Specifically, we analyze the effect of the extent of 4-H participation for third- through tenth grade on the mathematics and reading subtests of the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT). We use a difference-in-difference-in-differences approach to control for potential confounders of the causal relationship at the level of school districts, grades, and years. Our results indicate that the extent of 4-H participation at the district-grade-year level is positively and significantly related to several measures of performance on the FCAT test. Furthermore, we find suggestive evidence that these positive effects of 4-H participation accumulate over time.
    Keywords: H52 - Government Expenditures and Education, I21 - Analysis of Education, I28 - Government Policy
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    Strategic Interactions Among Private and Public Efforts When Preventing and Stamping Out a Highly Infectious Animal Disease (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
    Description: Upon the outbreak of a contagious animal disease, a primary motive for restoring disease-free status is often to regain access to international product markets. Efforts applied toward continuing or regaining such access generate a public good—all growers benefit regardless of the extent of private effort taken, while exclusion is impractical. Private incentives to take preventive measures and stamp-out effort interact in complex ways. There are intra-farm temporal interactions and also inter-farm contemporaneous interactions. Public effort also takes place and interacts with private effort. This paper provides a succinct multi-agent model to explore these interactions in social optimum and in Nash equilibrium, and also to explore how socially optimal and Nash behavior differ. Comparative statics under social optimality are more straightforward than under Nash equilibrium. Whether it is in social optimum or Nash equilibrium, public prevention effort complements both private prevention and private stamp-out efforts. However, public stamp-out effort substitutes for both private stamp-out and private prevention efforts. Reasonable conditions are identified under which Nash levels of private prevention and stamp-out efforts are both below socially optimal levels. Concerning policy prescriptions, secure property rights and low property transfer costs should promote prevention and eradication efforts. Other things being equal, public prevention effort should be more effective at improving welfare than comparable public stamp-out effort. Subsidies on private effort should favor prevention because subsidies on eradication effort may discourage prevention effort. Even if products from diseased animals are safe to consume and acceptable to consumers, it may be optimal to destroy them.
    Keywords: D62 - Externalities, H40 - General, I10 - General
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    Self-Protection, Strategic Interactions, and the Relative Endogeneity of Disease Risks (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
    Description: Self-protection is a key behavior that influences infectious disease risks. Spillovers in disease protection create different types of strategic interactions. Under certain conditions, multiple Nash equilibria may arise with the possibility of coordination failure involving excessively low self-protection, in which case individuals’ expectations of others’ efforts determine which outcome arises. In prior studies, assumed technical relations between self-protection and infection probabilities drove the strategic interactions. We demonstrate that strategic relations can be endogenously determined and depend on the relative endogeneity of risk (RER), defined here as the degree to which individuals can take control of their own risks in a strategic setting. The potential for coordination failure may arise when RER is sufficiently small, whereas larger levels of RER may eliminate this possibility to ensure larger levels of self-protection. We find that imposing a behaviorally-dependent indemnity may increase RER to eliminate the possibility of coordination failure. We apply our analysis to the problem of livestock disease and illustrate the theory using a numerical example of the 2001 United Kingdom foot-and-mouth disease epidemic.
    Keywords: D80 - General, Q19 - Other, Q59 - Other
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    The Economics of Collective Reputation: Evidence from the Wine Industry (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
    Description: We use original data regarding the array of Italian winery coalitions (wine denominations) to analyze the economics and determinants of collective reputation. We first run a cross-sectional analysis with 2008 data and the full set of control variables, then move to the dynamics of collective reputation with panel data analysis on a 30-year time span (1978–2008). Group reputation is history-dependent. In particular, past bad collective behavior increases the probability of being stuck in a "bad reputation trap." Minimum quality standards and effective enforcement are fundamental drivers of group reputation. The relationship between group size and collective reputation is non-linear: free entry may not be optimal due to free-riding problems. Finally, institutional signals such as the wine classification system are useful because they can be used by consumers as easily available proxies for information that is much more difficult to acquire.
    Keywords: L14 - Transactional Relationships ; Contracts and Reputation ; Networks, L15 - Information and Product Quality ; Standardization and Compatibility
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    Journals, Preferences, and Publishing in Agricultural and Environmental Economics (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
    Description: Research quality is an increasingly important metric for determining funding allocations, promotion and tenure, and professional prestige. A key metric often used as a proxy for research quality is the ranking of the journal in which a manuscript appears. While citation-based measures of journal quality are commonly used, less is known about other dimensions of journal quality and prestige. We report results from an international study using Best-Worst Scaling to investigate researchers’ journal preferences. Respondents used two criteria to assess journals: the impact a paper in the journal would have on career progression, and the impact beyond academia of papers in the journal. Among the sample of journals studied, the American Journal of Agricultural Economics is ranked at the top for career progression for the aggregate sample, while Science was rated at the top for broader impact. We find no significant correlation between the journal scores based on the two criteria, nor between them and the journals’ impact factors. These results suggest that impact beyond academia is poorly aligned with career incentives and that citation measures reflect poorly, if at all, peers’ esteem of journals. Heteroscedastic scale-adjusted latent class models reveal marked heterogeneity in journal preferences related to researchers’ institutional affiliation and geographic region. We find significant differences in error variance over people and choices: people were less consistent when choosing their least, as opposed to their most, preferred journal. This finding has broader implications given the burgeoning use of best-worst surveys.
    Keywords: A11 - Role of Economics ; Role of Economists ; Market for Economists, I21 - Analysis of Education, I23 - Higher Education Research Institutions, Q10 - General, Q20 - General, Q50 - General
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    Examining the Relationship between the Use of Supermarkets and Over-nutrition in Indonesia (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
    Description: This study examines the relationship between the use of modern food retailers and health outcomes using data from a survey of 1,180 urban households in Indonesia. The dependent variables include adult and child body-mass index and the share of individuals overweight and obese. After controlling for individual and household characteristics and using standard and Lewbel instrumental variable approaches to control for unobservable characteristics, we do not find a statistically significant relationship between use of supermarkets and adult nutrition measures. On the other hand, there is mixed evidence for a negative effect of supermarkets on child nutrition, particularly for those in high-income households.
    Keywords: I15 - Health and Economic Development, P46 - Consumer Economics ; Welfare and Poverty, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy
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    Position Bias in Best-worst Scaling Surveys: A Case Study on Trust in Institutions (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
    Description: This paper investigates the effect of items’ physical position in the best-worst scaling technique. Although the best-worst scaling technique has been widely used in many fields, the literature has largely overlooked the phenomenon of consumers’ adoption of processing strategies while making their best-worst choices. We examine this issue in the context of consumers’ trust in institutions to provide information about a new food technology, nanotechnology, and its use in food processing. Our results show that approximately half of the consumers used position as a schematic cue when making choices. We find the position bias was particularly strong when consumers chose their most trustworthy institution compared to their least trustworthy institution. In light of our findings, we recommend that researchers in the field be aware of the possibility of position bias when designing best-worst scaling surveys. We also encourage researchers who have already collected best-worst data to investigate whether their data shows such heuristics.
    Keywords: C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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    Latin American Agriculture in a World of Trade Agreements (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
    Description: Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries are members of 29 distinct free trade agreements with other Latin American partners, and 44 such agreements exist between an LAC country and other countries. Among the LAC countries linked by an Free Trade Agreement (FTA), a large percentage of trade is already duty free though many trade barriers in agriculture persist. There is a significant difference in the trade patterns among the LAC countries. The Southern Cone countries, for example, have extensive agricultural exports to Asia and to the European Union (EU), and have few FTAs with regional countries. By contrast, countries in Central America and the Andean region have extensive trade agreements with each other, and have fewer exports outside the region. Meanwhile, other regions are negotiating ambitious mega-agreements, particularly the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP). These could have significant impacts on the region, including trade diversion and preference erosion in major import markets. Several possible avenues exist for Latin American countries to accomplish the following: counter the impact of a TPP and T-TIP on agricultural exports; strengthen existing bilateral trade agreements within the region; link existing multi-country agreements such as Mercado Común del Sur (MERCOSUR) and the Pacific Alliance to North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA); consolidate the current trade agreements with the EU; or "sign on" to the TPP. This last option would be more attractive if China were to become a TPP participant. If China is not interested in joining the TPP, then for some countries a direct FTA with China could be contemplated.
    Keywords: F10 - General, F50 - General, General
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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    Agricultural Production under Climate Change: The Potential Impacts of Shifting Regional Water Balances in the United States (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
    Description: General circulation models predict significant and accelerating changes in local patterns of precipitation and temperature during the twenty-first century. Agriculture's vulnerability to climate change will depend on both the biophysical impacts of climate change on crop yields and on the agricultural system's ability to adapt to changing production conditions. Shifts in the extent and distribution of irrigated and dryland production are a potentially important adaptation response. Farmer flexibility to adapt may be limited, however, by changes in the availability of irrigation water under future climate conditions. This study uses a suite of models to explore the biophysical and economic impacts of climate change on U.S. fieldcrop production under several potential future climate projections, and to explore the potential limits and opportunities for adaptation arising from shifting regional water balances. The study findings suggest that, while irrigation shortages attributable to climate change have varying effects on cropland use, the aggregate impacts on national production are small relative to the direct biophysical impacts of climate change on yield.
    Keywords: Q10 - General, Q20 - General, Q30 - General
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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    Deforestation Control and Agricultural Supply in Brazil (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
    Description: Brazil has dramatically increased its agricultural area under cultivation, in the process becoming a major food exporter at the cost of natural forests. A new challenge is to meet the food demands of an expanding world population in the face of pessimistic climate change scenarios and the increasing scarcity of land. Can Brazil help meet rising world food demand while conserving its tropical rainforests? To address this question we simulate outcomes using a large dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model of Brazil to model land use over 20 years in 90 zones and 14 agricultural sectors. The model features a land-use change module based on a transition matrix obtained from satellite imagery. We analyze two scenarios of deforestation reduction, both linked to actual policy proposals. Model results indicate several mechanisms that allow food output to increase without expanding land supply. In particular, we stress the role of Brazil's vast, low-yield pasture area as a source of future cropland. Thus, we find that controlling deforestation leads to rather small decreases in food output—which could be neutralized by tiny exogenous productivity improvements. We conclude that the decrease in deforestation will not significantly compromise Brazilian agricultural supply capacity in the foreseeable future.
    Keywords: Q23 - Forestry, Q24 - Land, Q28 - Government Policy
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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    Farmers' Adaptation to Extreme Weather Events through Farm Management and Its Impacts on the Mean and Risk of Rice Yield in China (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-03-14
    Description: We explore how rice farmers adjust their farm management practices in response to extreme weather events and determine whether their adjustments affect the mean, risk, and downside risk of rice yield. Based on a survey of 1,653 rice farmers in China, our econometric analyses show that the severity of drought and flood in the study areas significantly increases the risk and downside risk of rice yield. The applied farm management measures respond to severe drought and flood and can be considered as adaptation to climate change, an issue often ignored in previous studies. We model adaptation and its impact on rice yield for adapters and non-adapters. Utilizing a moment-based approach, we show that adaptation through farm management measures significantly increases rice yield and reduces the risk and downside risk of rice yield. Several policies, including scaling up the cost-effective farm management adaptation and providing public services related to natural disasters, are recommended to improve adaptive capacity of farmers, particular the poor, in response to extreme events.
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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