ALBERT

Description: Review Article: On the relation between the seismic activity and the Hurst exponent of the geomagnetic field at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2189-2194, 2013 Author(s): F. Masci and J. N. Thomas Many papers document the observation of earthquake-related precursory signatures in geomagnetic field data. However, the significance of these findings is ambiguous because the authors did not adequately take into account that these signals could have been generated by other sources, and the seismogenic origin of these signals have not been validated by comparison with independent datasets. Thus, they are not reliable examples of magnetic disturbances induced by the seismic activity. Hayakawa et al. (2004) claim that at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm the Hurst exponent of the Ultra-Low-Frequency (ULF: 0.001–10 Hz) band of the geomagnetic field varied in accord with the energy released by the seismicity. The present paper demonstrates that the behaviour of the Hurst exponent was insufficiently investigated and also misinterpreted by the authors. We clearly show that during the Izu swarm the changes of the Hurst exponent were strongly related to the level of global geomagnetic activity and not to the increase of the local seismic activity.

Description: Forest fire danger rating in complex topography – results from a case study in the Bavarian Alps in autumn 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2157-2167, 2013 Author(s): C. Schunk, C. Wastl, M. Leuchner, C. Schuster, and A. Menzel Forest fire danger rating based on sparse meteorological stations is known to be potentially misleading when assigned to larger areas of complex topography. This case study examines several fire danger indices based on data from two meteorological stations at different elevations during a major drought period. This drought was caused by a persistent high pressure system, inducing a pronounced temperature inversion and its associated thermal belt with much warmer, dryer conditions in intermediate elevations. Thus, a massive drying of fuels, leading to higher fire danger levels, and multiple fire occurrences at mid-slope positions were contrasted by moderate fire danger especially in the valleys. The ability of fire danger indices to resolve this situation was studied based on a comparison with the actual fire danger as determined from expert observations, fire occurrences and fuel moisture measurements. The results revealed that, during temperature inversion, differences in daily cycles of meteorological parameters influence fire danger and that these are not resolved by standard meteorological stations and fire danger indices (calculated on a once-a-day basis). Additional stations in higher locations or high-resolution meteorological models combined with fire danger indices accepting at least hourly input data may allow reasonable fire danger calculations under these circumstances.

Description: Preface "Landslide hazard and risk assessment at different scales" Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2169-2171, 2013 Author(s): P. Reichenbach, A. Günther, and T. Glade

Description: Linking ICT and society in early warning and adaptation to hydrological extremes in mountains Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2253-2270, 2013 Author(s): C. de Jong The assessment of the societal impact of hydrological extremes is particularly important in mountain regions, since mountains can be considered both as the generators and victims of extreme events. ICT can provide a powerful tool for transmitting hydro-meteorological information to predict, prepare and adapt to such events. However, in remote regions, such as mountains, the poles, deserts and islands, preventive and adaptive measures are often restricted by data availability and lack and/or incoherence of data networks. This paper distinguishes between early warning of floods and droughts, emphasising the latter in particular in mountains and explores the possibilities of enhancing the role of society in data collection, the identification, activation and application of stakeholder knowledge and transferral of data from gauged to ungauged catchments.

Description: The environmental impact of the Puyehue–Cordon Caulle 2011 volcanic eruption on Buenos Aires Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2319-2330, 2013 Author(s): G. B. Raga, D. Baumgardner, A. G. Ulke, M. Torres Brizuela, and B. Kucienska On 4 June 2011, the volcanic complex Puyehue–Cordon Caulle located in the Chilean Andes erupted, producing a plume of gases and particles that eventually circled the Southern Hemisphere, disrupting air travel and depositing ash in large quantities. On eight occasions, the plume passed over the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, leading local authorities to close the two international airports. The eruption occurred during an on-going field campaign when measurements of the properties of atmospheric aerosol particles were being made in Buenos Aires as part of a year-long study of the concentration and optical properties of aerosol at one site in the city. The suite of instruments deployed in Buenos Aires were not tailored to measurements of volcanic ash, but were designed to characterize urban conditions. Nevertheless, these measurements were analysed for periods when vertical profiles of aerosol backscatter, made with a ceilometer, clearly showed the presence of the volcano plume over the research site and resulted in airport closure. Aerosol optical thickness derived from AERONET, MODIS and a ceilometer at our research site, all show enhanced values clearly indicating that the three platforms identified the volcanic plume simultaneously. However, a quantitative comparison of the different estimates proves difficult, suggesting large spatial and temporal variability of the plume. Our results indicate that the number concentration of condensation nuclei (CN), the mass concentration of particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PPAH) and the light absorption coefficient exceeded the average background values by more than one standard deviation during the events of volcanic plume. The anomalous concentrations of CN suggest new particle formation, presumably from the conversion of SO 2 , while the anomalous concentrations of PPAH may come from the uptake of PAHs on the plume particles or from chemical reactions on the surface of plume particles. The anomalous absorption coefficients indicate that plume particles may contain certain compounds that can absorb radiation at 550 nm. Another possible explanation consistent with the observations is the scavenging of black carbon from urban sources as the plume descends through the boundary layer to the surface. In addition, the volcanic plume influenced the local meteorology resulting in a decrease of the temperature when compared to the average temperature during days with no plume present.

Description: Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2301-2318, 2013 Author(s): A. Beckers, B. Dewals, S. Erpicum, S. Dujardin, S. Detrembleur, J. Teller, M. Pirotton, and P. Archambeau Managing flood risk in Europe is a critical issue because climate change is expected to increase flood hazard in many european countries. Beside climate change, land use evolution is also a key factor influencing future flood risk. The core contribution of this paper is a new methodology to model residential land use evolution. Based on two climate scenarios ("dry" and "wet"), the method is applied to study the evolution of flood damage by 2100 along the river Meuse. Nine urbanization scenarios were developed: three of them assume a "current trend" land use evolution, leading to a significant urban sprawl, while six others assume a dense urban development, characterized by a higher density and a higher diversity of urban functions in the urbanized areas. Using damage curves, the damage estimation was performed by combining inundation maps for the present and future 100 yr flood with present and future land use maps and specific prices. According to the dry scenario, the flood discharge is expected not to increase. In this case, land use changes increase flood damages by 1–40%, to €334–462 million in 2100. In the wet scenario, the relative increase in flood damage is 540–630%, corresponding to total damages of €2.1–2.4 billion. In this extreme scenario, the influence of climate on the overall damage is 3–8 times higher than the effect of land use change. However, for seven municipalities along the river Meuse, these two factors have a comparable influence. Consequently, in the "wet" scenario and at the level of the whole Meuse valley in the Walloon region, careful spatial planning would reduce the increase in flood damage by no more than 11–23%; but, at the level of several municipalities, more sustainable spatial planning would reduce future flood damage to a much greater degree.

Description: Quantification of model uncertainty in aerosol optical thickness retrieval from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8509-8541, 2013 Author(s): A. Määttä, M. Laine, J. Tamminen, and J. P. Veefkind We study uncertainty quantification in remote sensing of aerosols in the atmosphere with top of the atmosphere reflectance measurements from the nadir-viewing Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Focus is on the uncertainty in aerosol model selection of pre-calculated aerosol models and on the statistical modelling of the model inadequacies. The aim is to apply statistical methodologies that improve the uncertainty estimates of the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrieval by propagating model selection and model error related uncertainties more realistically. We utilise Bayesian model selection and model averaging methods for the model selection problem and use Gaussian processes to model the smooth systematic discrepancies from the modelled to observed reflectance. The systematic model error is learned from an ensemble of operational retrievals. The operational OMI multi-wavelength aerosol retrieval algorithm OMAERO is used for cloud free, over land pixels of the OMI instrument with the additional Bayesian model selection and model discrepancy techniques. The method is demonstrated with four examples with different aerosol properties: weakly absorbing aerosols, forest fires over Greece and Russia, and Sahara dessert dust. The presented statistical methodology is general; it is not restricted to this particular satellite retrieval application.

Description: Estimating soil suction from electrical resistivity Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2369-2379, 2013 Author(s): E. Piegari and R. Di Maio Soil suction and resistivity strongly depend on the degree of soil saturation and, therefore, both are used for estimating water content variations. The main difference between them is that soil suction is measured using tensiometers, which give point information, while resistivity is obtained by tomography surveys, which provide distributions of resistivity values in large volumes, although with less accuracy. In this paper, we have related soil suction to electrical resistivity with the aim of obtaining information about soil suction changes in large volumes, and not only for small areas around soil suction probes. We derived analytical relationships between soil matric suction and electrical resistivity by combining the empirical laws of van Genuchten and Archie. The obtained relationships were used to evaluate maps of soil suction values in different ashy layers originating in the explosive activity of the Mt Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy). Our findings provided a further example of the high potential of geophysical methods in contributing to more effective monitoring of soil stress conditions; this is of primary importance in areas where rainfall-induced landslides occur periodically.

Description: The Greenhouse Gas Climate Change Initiative (GHG-CCI): comparative validation of GHG-CCI SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT and TANSO-FTS/GOSAT CO 2 and CH 4 retrieval algorithm products with measurements from the TCCON network Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8679-8741, 2013 Author(s): B. Dils, M. Buchwitz, M. Reuter, O. Schneising, H. Boesch, R. Parker, S. Guerlet, I. Aben, T. Blumenstock, J. P. Burrows, A. Butz, N. M. Deutscher, C. Frankenberg, F. Hase, O. P. Hasekamp, J. Heymann, M. De Mazière, J. Notholt, R. Sussmann, T. Warneke, D. Griffith, V. Sherlock, and D. Wunch Column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of carbon dioxide and methane have been retrieved from spectra acquired by the TANSO-FTS and SCIAMACHY instruments on board GOSAT and ENVISAT using a range of European retrieval algorithms. These retrievals have been compared with data from ground-based high-resolution Fourier Transform Spectrometers (FTS) from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). The participating algorithms are the Weighting Function Modified Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) algorithm (WFMD, University of Bremen), the Bremen Optimal Estimation DOAS algorithm (BESD, University of Bremen), the Iterative Maximum A Posteriori DOAS (IMAP, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and Netherlands Institute for Space Research algorithm (SRON)), the proxy and full-physics versions of SRON's RemoTeC algorithm (SRPR and SRFP respectively) and the proxy and full-physics versions of the University of Leicester's adaptation of the OCO (Orbiting Carbon Observatory) algorithm (OCPR and OCFP respectively). The goal of this algorithm inter-comparison was to identify strengths and weaknesses of the various so-called Round Robin data sets generated with the various algorithms so as to determine which of the competing algorithms would proceed to the next round of the European Space Agency's (ESA) Greenhouse Gas Climate Change Initiative (GHG-CCI) project, which is the generation of the so-called Climate Research Data Package (CRDP), which is the first version of the Essential Climate Variable (ECV) "Greenhouse Gases" (GHG). For CO 2 , all algorithms reach the precision requirements for inverse modelling ( 〈 8 ppb), with only WFMD having a lower precision (4.7 ppm) than the other algorithm products (2.4–2.5 ppm). When looking at the seasonal relative accuracy (SRA, variability of the bias in space and time), none of the algorithms have reached the demanding 〈 0.5 ppm threshold. For CH 4 , the precision for both SCIAMACHY products (50.2 ppb for IMAP and 76.4 ppb for WFMD) fail to meet the 〈 34 ppb threshold, but note that this work focusses on the period after the 2005 SCIAMACHY detector degradation. The GOSAT X CH 4 precision ranges between 18.1 and 14.0 ppb. Looking at the SRA, all GOSAT algorithm products reach the 〈 10 ppm threshold (values ranging between 5.4 and 6.2 ppb). For SCIAMACHY, IMAP and WFMD have a SRA of 17.2 ppb and 10.5 ppb respectively.

Description: Sulfur dioxide emissions from Papandayan and Bromo, two Indonesian volcanoes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2399-2407, 2013 Author(s): P. Bani, Surono, M. Hendrasto, H. Gunawan, and S. Primulyana Indonesia hosts 79 active volcanoes, representing 14% of all active volcanoes worldwide. However, little is known about their SO 2 contribution into the atmosphere, due to isolation and access difficulties. Existing SO 2 emission budgets for the Indonesian archipelago are based on extrapolations and inferences as there is a considerable lack of field assessments of degassing. Here, we present the first SO 2 flux measurements using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) for Papandayan and Bromo, two of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia. Results indicate mean SO 2 emission rates of 1.4 t d −1 from the fumarolic activity of Papandayan and more than 22–32 t d −1 of SO 2 released by Bromo during a declining eruptive phase. These DOAS results are very encouraging and pave the way for a better evaluation of Indonesian volcanic emissions.

Description: Interviewing insights regarding the fatalities inflicted by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2173-2187, 2013 Author(s): M. Ando, M. Ishida, Y. Hayashi, C. Mizuki, Y. Nishikawa, and Y. Tu One hundred fifty survivors of the 11 March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (Tohoku-oki earthquake) ( M w = 9.0) were interviewed to study the causes of deaths from the associated tsunami in coastal areas of Tohoku. The first official tsunami warning underestimated the height of the tsunami and 40% of the interviewees did not obtain this warning due to immediate blackouts and a lack of communication after the earthquake. Many chose to remain in dangerous locations based on the underestimated warning and their experiences with previous smaller tsunamis and/or due to misunderstanding the mitigating effects of nearby breakwaters in blocking incoming tsunamis. Some delayed their evacuation to perform family safety checks, and in many situations, the people affected misunderstood the risks involved in tsunamis. In this area, three large tsunamis have struck in the 115 yr preceding the 2011 tsunami. These tsunamis remained in the collective memory of communities, and numerous measures against future tsunami damage, such as breakwaters and tsunami evacuation drills, had been implemented. Despite these preparedness efforts, approximately 18 500 deaths and cases of missing persons occurred. The death rate with the age of 65 and above was particularly high, four times higher than that with other age groups. These interviews indicate that deaths resulted from a variety of reasons, but if residents had taken immediate action after the major ground motion stopped, most residents might have been saved. Education about the science behind earthquakes and tsunamis could help save more lives in the future.

Description: The effect of phase partitioning of semivolatile compounds on the measured CCN activity of aerosol particles Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8413-8433, 2013 Author(s): S. Romakkaniemi, A. Jaatinen, A. Laaksonen, A. Nenes, and T. Raatikainen The effect of inorganic semivolatile aerosol compounds on the CCN activity of aerosol particles was studied by using a computational model for a DMT-CCN counter, a cloud parcel model for condensation kinetics and experiments to quantify the modelled results. Concentrations of water vapour and semivolatiles as well as aerosol trajectories in the CCN column were calculated by a computational fluid dynamics model. These trajectories and vapour concentrations were then used as an input for the cloud parcel model to simulate mass transfer kinetics of water and semivolatiles between aerosol particles and the gas phase. Two different questions were studied: (1) how big fraction of semivolatiles is evaporated from particles before activation in the CCN counter? (2) How much the CCN activity can be increased due to condensation of semivolatiles prior to the maximum water supersaturation in the case of high semivolatile concentration in the gas phase? The results show that, to increase the CCN activity of aerosol particles, a very high gas phase concentration (as compared to typical ambient conditions) is needed. We used nitric acid as a test compound. A concentration of several ppb or higher is needed for measurable effect. In the case of particle evaporation, we used ammonium nitrate as a test compound and found that it partially evaporates before maximum supersaturation is reached in the CCN counter, thus causing an underestimation of CCN activity. The effect of evaporation is clearly visible in all supersaturations, leading to an underestimation of the critical dry diameter by 10 to 15 nanometres in the case of ammonium nitrate particles in different supersaturations. This result was also confirmed by measurements in supersaturations between 0.1 and 0.7%.

Description: Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great ( M w = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2279-2299, 2013 Author(s): T. R. Robinson and T. R. H. Davies The Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island has not sustained a large magnitude earthquake since ca. AD 1717. The time since this rupture is close to the average inferred recurrence interval of the fault (~300 yr). The Alpine Fault is therefore expected to generate a large magnitude earthquake in the near future. Previous ruptures of this fault are inferred to have generated M w = 8.0 or greater earthquakes and to have resulted in, amongst other geomorphic hazards, large-scale landslides and landslide dams throughout the Southern Alps. There is currently 85% probability that the Alpine Fault will cause a M w = 8.0+ earthquake within the next 100 yr. While the seismic hazard is fairly well understood, that of the consequential geomorphic activity is less well studied, and these consequences are explored herein. They are expected to include landsliding, landslide damming, dam-break flooding, debris flows, river aggradation, liquefaction, and landslide-generated lake/fiord tsunami. Using evidence from previous events within New Zealand as well as analogous international examples, we develop first-order estimates of the likely magnitude and possible locations of the geomorphic effects associated with earthquakes. Landsliding is expected to affect an area 〉 30 000 km 2 and involve 〉 1billion m 3 of material. Some tens of landslide dams are expected to occur in narrow, steep-sided gorges in the affected region. Debris flows will be generated in the first long-duration rainfall after the earthquake and will continue to occur for several years as rainfall (re)mobilises landslide material. In total more than 1000 debris flows are likely to be generated at some time after the earthquake. Aggradation of up to 3 m will cover an area 〉 125 km 2 and is likely to occur on many West Coast alluvial fans and floodplains. The impact of these effects will be felt across the entire South Island and is likely to continue for several decades.

Description: Integrating spatial, temporal, and size probabilities for the annual landslide hazard maps in the Shihmen watershed, Taiwan Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2353-2367, 2013 Author(s): C. Y. Wu and S. C. Chen Landslide spatial, temporal, and size probabilities were used to perform a landslide hazard assessment in this study. Eleven intrinsic geomorphological, and two extrinsic rainfall factors were evaluated as landslide susceptibility related factors as they related to the success rate curves, landslide ratio plots, frequency distributions of landslide and non-landslide groups, as well as probability–probability plots. Data on landslides caused by Typhoon Aere in the Shihmen watershed were selected to train the susceptibility model. The landslide area probability, based on the power law relationship between the landslide area and a noncumulative number, was analyzed using the Pearson type 5 probability density function. The exceedance probabilities of rainfall with various recurrence intervals, including 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 yr, were used to determine the temporal probabilities of the events. The study was conducted in the Shihmen watershed, which has an area of 760 km 2 and is one of the main water sources for northern Taiwan. The validation result of Typhoon Krosa demonstrated that this landslide hazard model could be used to predict the landslide probabilities. The results suggested that integration of spatial, area, and exceedance probabilities to estimate the annual probability of each slope unit is feasible. The advantage of this annual landslide probability model lies in its ability to estimate the annual landslide risk, instead of a scenario-based risk.

Description: On the puzzling feature of the silence of precursory electromagnetic emissions Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2381-2397, 2013 Author(s): K. Eftaxias, S. M. Potirakis, and T. Chelidze It has been suggested that fracture-induced MHz–kHz electromagnetic emissions (EME), which emerge from a few days up to a few hours before the main seismic shock occurrence permit a real-time monitoring of the damage process during the last stages of earthquake preparation, as it happens at the laboratory scale. Despite fairly abundant evidence, electromagnetic (EM) precursors have not been adequately accepted as credible physical phenomena. These negative views are enhanced by the fact that certain "puzzling features" are repetitively observed in candidate fracture-induced pre-seismic EME. More precisely, EM silence in all frequency bands appears before the main seismic shock occurrence, as well as during the aftershock period. Actually, the view that "acceptance of "precursive" EM signals without convincing co-seismic signals should not be expected" seems to be reasonable. In this work we focus on this point. We examine whether the aforementioned features of EM silence are really puzzling ones or, instead, reflect well-documented characteristic features of the fracture process, in terms of universal structural patterns of the fracture process, recent laboratory experiments, numerical and theoretical studies of fracture dynamics, critical phenomena, percolation theory, and micromechanics of granular materials. Our analysis shows that these features should not be considered puzzling.

Description: Spectral Aerosol Extinction Monitoring System (SÆMS): setup, observational products, and comparisons Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8647-8677, 2013 Author(s): A. Skupin, A. Ansmann, R. Engelmann, and H. Baars A Spectral Aerosol Extinction Monitoring System (SÆMS) is presented that allows us to continuously measure the spectral extinction coefficient of atmospheric aerosol particles along an about 2.7 km long optical path at 30–50 m height above ground at Leipzig (51.3° N, 12.4° E), Germany. The fully automated instrument measures the ambient aerosol extinction coefficients from 300–1000 nm. The main goal of SÆMS observations are long-term studies of the relationship between particle extinction and relative humidity from below 40 % to almost 100 %. The setup is presented and observations (a case study and statistical results for 2009) are discussed in terms of time series of 550 nm particle optical depth, Ångström exponent, and particle size distribution retrieved from the spectrally resolved extinction. The SÆMS measurements are compared with simultaneously performed EARLINET lidar, AERONET photometer, and in situ aerosol observations of particle size distribution and related extinction coefficients at the roof of our institute. Consistency between the different measurements is found which corroborates the quality of the SÆMS observations.

Description: Validation of SCIAMACHY O 2 A band cloud heights using Cloudnet radar/lidar measurements Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8603-8645, 2013 Author(s): P. Wang and P. Stammes For the first time two SCIAMACHY O 2 A band cloud height products are validated using ground-based radar/lidar measurements between January 2003 and December 2011. The products are the ESA Level 2 (L2) version 5.02 cloud top height and the FRESCO (Fast Retrieval Scheme for Clouds from the Oxygen A band) version 6 cloud height. The radar/lidar profiles are obtained at the Cloudnet sites of Cabauw and Lindenberg, and are averaged for one hour centered at the SCIAMACHY overpass time to achieve an optimal temporal and spatial match. In total we have about 220 cases of single layer clouds and 200 cases of multi-layer clouds. The FRESCO cloud height and ESA L2 cloud top height are compared with the Cloudnet cloud top height and Cloudnet cloud middle height. We find that the ESA L2 cloud top height has a better agreement with the Cloudnet cloud top height than the Cloudnet cloud middle height. The ESA L2 cloud top height is on average 0.44 km higher than the Cloudnet cloud top height, with a standard deviation of 3.07 km. The FRESCO cloud height is closer to the Cloudnet cloud middle height than the Cloudnet cloud top height. The mean difference between the FRESCO cloud height and the Cloudnet cloud middle height is −0.14 km with a standard deviation of 1.88 km. The SCIAMACHY cloud height products are further compared to the Cloudnet cloud top height and the Cloudnet cloud middle height in 1 km bins. For single layer clouds, the difference between the ESA L2 cloud top height and the Cloudnet cloud top height is less than 1 km for each cloud bin at 3–7 km, which is 24 % percent of the data. The difference between the FRESCO cloud height and the Cloudnet cloud middle height is less than 1 km for each cloud bin at 0–6 km, which is 85 % percent of the data. The results are similar for multi-layer clouds, but the percentage of cases having a bias within 1 km is smaller than for single layer clouds. Since globally about 60 % of all clouds are low clouds and 42 % are single-layer low clouds, we expect that globally for a large percentage of cases the FRESCO cloud height would be close to the cloud middle height.

Description: Characteristics of cloud liquid water path from SEVIRI on the Meteosat Second Generation 2 satellite for several cloud types Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8743-8782, 2013 Author(s): A. Kniffka, M. Stengel, M. Lockhoff, R. Bennartz, and R. Hollmann In this study the temporal and spatial characteristics of liquid water path (LWP) of low, middle level and high clouds are analysed using space-based observations of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) onboard the Meteosat Second Generation 2 (MSG2) satellite. Both geophysical quantities are part of the dataset CLAAS (CLoud property dAtAset using SEVIRI) and are generated by EUMETSAT's Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF). In this article we focus on the statistical properties of LWP retrieved at daylight associated with the individual cloud type. Our results reveal that each cloud type possesses a characteristic LWP distribution. These frequency distributions are constant with time in the entire SEVIRI field of view, but vary for smaller regions like Central Europe. The average LWP is higher over land than over sea, in case of low clouds 15–27% for 2009 and the variance of the frequency distributions is enhanced. Also, the average diurnal cycle of LWP is related to cloud type where most pronounced diurnal variations were detected for middle level clouds. With SEVIRI it is possible to distinguish between intrinsic LWP variability and variations driven by cloud amount. The relative amplitude of the intrinsic diurnal cycle can exceed the cloud amount driven amplitude.

Description: Remote sensing of atmospheric trace gas columns: an efficient approach for regularization and calculation of total column averaging kernels Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 4999-5031, 2013 Author(s): T. Borsdorff, O. P. Hasekamp, A. Wassmann, and J. Landgraf A concept is proposed to retrieve the vertical column densities of atmospheric trace gases from remote sensing measurements. It combines the numerical simplicity of a least-squares profile scaling retrieval with the numerically robust calculation of the total column averaging kernel using an analytic expression. The approach enables calculation of the total column averaging kernel on arbitrary vertical grids. Formally, the proposed method is equivalent to Tikhonov regularization of the first kind with an infinite regularization strength. Due to its efficiency it is particularly suited for implementation in operational data processing with high demands on processing time. To demonstrate the method, we apply it to CO column retrieval from simulated measurements in the 2.3 μm spectral region and to O 3 column retrieval from the UV, which represents ideal measurements of a series of space-borne spectrometers like SCIAMACHY, TROPOMI, GOME, and GOME-2. For both spectral ranges, we consider clear-sky and cloudy scenes where clouds are modelled as an elevated Lambertian surface. Here, the smoothing error for the clear-sky and cloudy atmosphere is significant and reaches several percent, depending on the reference profile which is used for scaling. This underlines the importance of the column averaging kernel for a proper interpretation of retrieved column densities. Furthermore, we show that the total column smoothing error is affected by a discretization error when total column averaging kernels are not represented on a fine enough vertical grid. For both retrievals this effect becomes negligible by using a vertical grid with 20–40 equally thick layers between 0 and 50 km.

Description: Mixing layer height retrievals by multichannel microwave radiometer observations Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 4971-4998, 2013 Author(s): D. Cimini, F. De Angelis, J.-C. Dupont, S. Pal, and M. Haeffelin The mixing layer height (MLH) is a key parameter for boundary layer studies, including meteorology, air quality, and climate. MLH estimates are inferred from in situ radiosonde measurements or remote sensing observations from instruments like lidar, wind profiling radar, or sodar. Methods used to estimate MLH from radiosonde profiles are also used with atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles retrieved by microwave radiometers (MWR). This paper proposes an alternative approach to estimate MLH from MWR data, based on direct observations (brightness temperatures, Tb) instead of retrieved profiles. To our knowledge, MLH estimates directly from Tb observations has never been attempted before. The method consists of a multivariate linear regression trained with an a priori set of collocated MWR Tb observations (multi-frequency and multi-angle) and MLH estimates from a state-of-the-art lidar system. Results show that the method is able to follow both the diurnal cycle and the day-to-day variability as suggested by the lidar measurements, and also it can detect low MLH values that are below the full overlap limit (~ 200 m) of the lidar system used. Statistics of the comparison between MWR- and reference lidar-based MLH retrievals show mean difference within 10 m, RMS within 340 m, and correlation coefficient higher than 0.77. Monthly mean analysis for day-time MLH from MWR, lidar, and radiosonde shows consistent seasonal variability, peaking at ~ 1200–1400 m in June and decreasing down to ~ 600 m in October. Conversely, night-time monthly mean MLH from all methods are within 300–500 m without any significant seasonal variability. The proposed method provides results that are more consistent with radiosonde estimates than MLH estimates from MWR retrieved profiles. MLH monthly mean values agree well within 1 std with bulk Richardson number method applied at radiosonde profiles at 11:00 and 23:00 UTC. The method described herewith operates continuously and it is expected to work with analogous performances for the entire diurnal cycle, except during considerable precipitation, demonstrating new potential for atmospheric observation by ground-based microwave radiometry.

Description: Early warning of snow-caused disasters in pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1411-1425, 2013 Author(s): W. Wang, T. Liang, X. Huang, Q. Feng, H. Xie, X. Liu, M. Chen, and X. Wang This study develops a model for early warning of snow-caused livestock disasters on a county basis and proposes a method of qualitative risk assessment of snow disasters at 500 m resolution for pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Data used for the model development include remote sensing data, statistical data of weather, livestock, and social economy, and 45 typical snow disaster cases from 2000 to 2010. The principal component analysis (PCA) approach is used to choose 7 crucial factors that contribute over 85% of information for early warning snow disasters on the TP. They are mean annual probability of snow disaster, number of snow-covered days, livestock stocking rate, continual days of mean daily temperature below −10 °C, grassland burial index, rate of snow-covered grassland, and per livestock gross domestic product. The chosen 411 cases from 2008 to 2010 are used to validate the prediction results from the developed early warning model, with an overall accuracy of 85.64% in predicting snow disasters and no disasters. This suggests that the early warning approach developed in the study has operational potential for predicting snow disasters on the TP.

Description: How much does participatory flood management contribute to stakeholders' social capacity building? Empirical findings based on a triangulation of three evaluation approaches Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1427-1444, 2013 Author(s): M. Buchecker, S. Menzel, and R. Home Recent literature suggests that dialogic forms of risk communication are more effective to build stakeholders' hazard-related social capacities. In spite of the high theoretical expectations, there is a lack of univocal empirical evidence on the relevance of these effects. This is mainly due to the methodological limitations of the existing evaluation approaches. In our paper we aim at eliciting the contribution of participatory river revitalisation projects on stakeholders' social capacity building by triangulating the findings of three evaluation studies that were based on different approaches: a field-experimental, a qualitative long-term ex-post and a cross-sectional household survey approach. The results revealed that social learning and avoiding the loss of trust were more relevant benefits of participatory flood management than acceptance building. The results suggest that stakeholder involvements should be more explicitly designed as tools for long-term social learning.

Description: Stratospheric aerosol particle size information in Odin-OSIRIS limb scatter spectra Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 5065-5099, 2013 Author(s): L. A. Rieger, A. E. Bourassa, and D. A. Degenstein The Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System (OSIRIS) on-board the Odin satellite has now taken over a decade of limb scatter measurements that have been used to retrieve the Version 5 stratospheric aerosol extinction product. This product is retrieved using a representative particle size distribution to calculate scattering cross sections and scattering phase functions for the forward model calculations. In this work the information content of OSIRIS measurements with respect to stratospheric aerosol is systematically examined for the purpose of retrieving particle size information along with the extinction coefficient. The benefit of using measurements at different wavelengths and scattering angles in the retrieval is studied and it is found that incorporation of the 1530 nm radiance measurement is key for a robust retrieval of particle size information. It is also found that using OSIRIS measurements at different solar geometries simultaneously provides little additional benefit. Based on these results, an improved aerosol retrieval algorithm is developed that couples the retrieval of aerosol extinction and mode radius of a log-normal particle size distribution. Comparison of these results with coincident measurements from SAGE III show agreement in retrieved extinction to within approximately 10% over the bulk of the aerosol layer, which is comparable to Version 5. The retrieved particle size, when converted to Ångström coefficient, shows good qualitative agreement with SAGE II measurements made at somewhat shorter wavelengths.

Description: SAGE version 7.0 algorithm: application to SAGE II Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 5101-5171, 2013 Author(s): R. P. Damadeo, J. M. Zawodny, L. W. Thomason, and N. Iyer This paper details the SAGE version 7.0 algorithm and how it is applied to SAGE II. Changes made between the previous (v6.2) and current (v7.0) versions are described and their impacts on the data products explained for both coincident event comparisons and time-series analysis. Users of the data will notice a general improvement in all of the SAGE II data products, which are now in better agreement with more modern data sets (e.g. SAGE III) and more robust for use with trend studies.

Description: Stakeholders' issues for action during the warning process and the interpretation of forecasts' uncertainties Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1469-1479, 2013 Author(s): L. Créton-Cazanave and C. Lutoff This article considers the socio-geographical approach carried out as part of the MedUp program. It presents a study of the ways that the French "actors" manage forecast uncertainties during a flash flood warning process. In order to better understand the role of forecasts' uncertainties in decision making, we focused on the actions people took and how what they say explains their actions. The practices of actors involved in warnings for the Vidourle watershed (Gard, France), in particular, are analyzed using a practice-based approach. A set of categories of the "actors" was developed based on their descriptions of the problems they faced during the flash flood warning, independent of their socio-professional status and position in the warning chain. Five actor profiles result from this: Translators, Managers, Committed, Navigators and Vulnerable. For each profile, specific action contexts are defined, determining how each deals with uncertainty.

Description: Augmenting Austrian flood management practices through geospatial predictive analytics: a study in Carinthia Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1445-1455, 2013 Author(s): S. M. Ward and G. Paulus The Danube River basin has long been the location of significant flooding problems across central Europe. The last decade has seen a sharp increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of these flood events, unveiling a dire need for enhanced flood management policy and tools in the region. Located in the southern portion of Austria, the state of Carinthia has experienced a significant volume of intense flood impacts over the last decade. Although the Austrian government has acknowledged these issues, their remedial actions have been primarily structural to date. Continued focus on controlling the natural environment through infrastructure while disregarding the need to consider alternative forms of assessing flood exposure will only act as a provisional solution to this inescapable risk. In an attempt to remedy this flaw, this paper highlights the application of geospatial predictive analytics and spatial recovery index as a proxy for community resilience, as well as the cultural challenges associated with the application of foreign models within an Austrian environment.

Description: Technical Note: Aeolian dust proxies produce visible luminescence upon intense laser-illumination that results from incandescence of internally mixed carbon Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 5173-5194, 2013 Author(s): L. Ma, T. Cao, and J. E. Thompson Mineral dust mimics dispersed in air produced visible luminescence between 550–800 nm when illuminated with a high peak power (MW range) Nd:YAG laser beam at 532 or 1064 nm. The luminescence persists for a few microseconds after the laser pulse and the measured emission spectrum is roughly consistent with a blackbody emitter at ≈4300 K. Both observations are consistent with assigning laser-induced incandescence (LII) as the source of the luminescence. However, light emission intensity from the mineral dust proxies is 240–4600 less intense than incandescence from fresh kerosene soot on a per-mass basis at laser pulse energies 90% on average. Heating to 350 °C reduced emission by 45–72%. Since black carbon soot and char (BC) oxidizes at elevated temperatures and BC is known to be present in soils, we conclude emission of light from the mineral dust aerosol proxies is likely a result of black carbon or char internally mixed within the soil dust sample. The reduction in LII response for samples heated to temperatures of 250–350 °C may result from partial oxidation of BC, but alternatively, could implicate a role for carbon present within organic molecules. The study suggests laser-induced incandescence measurements may allow quantitation of black carbon in soils and that soil dust is not truly an interferent in BC analysis by LII, but rather, a BC containing material.

Description: CDRD and PNPR satellite passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithms: EuroTRMM/EURAINSAT origins and H-SAF operations Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 887-912, 2013 Author(s): A. Mugnai, E. A. Smith, G. J. Tripoli, B. Bizzarri, D. Casella, S. Dietrich, F. Di Paola, G. Panegrossi, and P. Sanò Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) is a EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) program, designed to deliver satellite products of hydrological interest (precipitation, soil moisture and snow parameters) over the European and Mediterranean region to research and operations users worldwide. Six satellite precipitation algorithms and concomitant precipitation products are the responsibility of various agencies in Italy. Two of these algorithms have been designed for maximum accuracy by restricting their inputs to measurements from conical and cross-track scanning passive microwave (PMW) radiometers mounted on various low Earth orbiting satellites. They have been developed at the Italian National Research Council/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate in Rome (CNR/ISAC-Rome), and are providing operational retrievals of surface rain rate and its phase properties. Each of these algorithms is physically based, however, the first of these, referred to as the Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database (CDRD) algorithm, uses a Bayesian-based solution solver, while the second, referred to as the PMW Neural-net Precipitation Retrieval (PNPR) algorithm, uses a neural network-based solution solver. Herein we first provide an overview of the two initial EU research and applications programs that motivated their initial development, EuroTRMM and EURAINSAT (European Satellite Rainfall Analysis and Monitoring at the Geostationary Scale), and the current H-SAF program that provides the framework for their operational use and continued development. We stress the relevance of the CDRD and PNPR algorithms and their precipitation products in helping secure the goals of H-SAF's scientific and operations agenda, the former helpful as a secondary calibration reference to other algorithms in H-SAF's complete mix of algorithms. Descriptions of the algorithms' designs are provided including a few examples of their performance. This aspect of the development of the two algorithms is placed in the context of what we refer to as the TRMM era, which is the era denoting the active and ongoing period of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) that helped inspire their original development. In 2015, the ISAC-Rome precipitation algorithms will undergo a transformation beginning with the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, particularly the GPM Core Satellite technologies. A few years afterward, the first pair of imaging and sounding Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satellites will be launched, providing additional technological advances. Various of the opportunities presented by the GPM Core and MTG satellites for improving the current CDRD and PNPR precipitation retrieval algorithms, as well as extending their product capability, are discussed.

Description: Retrieval of aerosol parameters from the oxygen A band in the presence of chlorophyll fluorescence Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 3181-3213, 2013 Author(s): A. F. J. Sanders and J. F. de Haan We have investigated precision of retrieved parameters for a generic aerosol retrieval algorithm over vegetated land using the O 2 A band. Chlorophyll fluorescence is taken into account in the forward model. Fluorescence emissions are modeled as isotropic contributions to the upwelling radiance field at the surface and they are retrieved along with aerosol parameters. Precision is calculated by propagating measurement noise using the forward model's derivatives. We assume that measurement noise is dominated by shot noise; thus, results apply to grating spectrometers in particular. In a number of retrieval simulations, we describe precision for various atmospheric states, observation geometries and spectral resolutions of the instrument. Our results show that aerosol optical thickness, aerosol pressure, fluorescence emission and surface albedo can be simultaneously retrieved from the O 2 A band. We also show that most of the fluorescence signal is provided by filling-in of the O 2 A band and to a lesser extent by filling-in of Fraunhofer lines.

Description: McClear: a new model estimating downwelling solar radiation at ground level in clear-sky conditions Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 3367-3405, 2013 Author(s): M. Lefèvre, A. Oumbe, P. Blanc, B. Espinar, B. Gschwind, Z. Qu, L. Wald, M. Schroedter-Homscheidt, C. Hoyer-Klick, A. Arola, A. Benedetti, J. W. Kaiser, and J.-J. Morcrette A new fast clear-sky model called McClear was developed to estimate the downwelling shortwave direct and global irradiances received at ground level under clear skies. McClear implements a fully physical modelling replacing empirical relations or simpler models used before. It exploits the recent results on aerosol properties, and total column content in water vapor and ozone produced by the MACC project (Monitoring Atmosphere Composition and Climate). It accurately reproduces the irradiance computed by the libRadtran reference radiative transfer model with a computational speed approximately 10 5 times greater by adopting the abaci, or look-up tables, approach combined with interpolation functions. It is therefore suited for geostationary satellite retrievals or numerical weather prediction schemes with many pixels or grid points, respectively. McClear irradiances were compared to 1 min measurements made in clear-sky conditions in several stations within the Baseline Surface Radiation Network in various climates. For global, respectively direct, irradiance, the correlation coefficient ranges between 0.95 and 0.99, resp. 0.86 and 0.99. The bias is comprised between −14 and 25 W m −2 , resp. −49 and +33 W m −2 . The RMSE ranges between 20 W m −2 (3% of the mean observed irradiance) and 36 W m −2 (5%), resp. 33 W m −2 (5%) and 64 W m −2 (10%). These results are much better than those from state-of-the-art models. This work demonstrates the quality of the McClear model combined with MACC products, and indirectly the quality of the aerosol properties modeled by the MACC reanalysis.

Description: Experimental quantification of contact freezing in an electrodynamic balance Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 3407-3437, 2013 Author(s): N. Hoffmann, A. Kiselev, D. Rzesanke, D. Duft, and T. Leisner Heterogeneous nucleation of ice in a supercooled water droplet induced by an external contact with a dry aerosol particle has long been known to be more effective than freezing induced by the same nucleus immersed in the droplet. However, the experimental quantification of contact freezing is challenging. Here we report an experimental method allowing to determine the temperature dependent ice nucleation probability of size selected aerosol particles. The method uses supercooled charged water droplets suspended in a laminar flow of air containing aerosol particles as contact freezing nuclei. The rate of droplet–particle collisions is calculated numerically with account for Coulomb attraction, drag force and induced dipole interaction between charged droplet and aerosol particles. The calculation is verified by direct counting of aerosol particles collected by a levitated droplet. By repeating the experiment on individual droplets for a sufficient number of times, we are able to reproduce the statistical freezing behavior of a large ensemble of supercooled droplets and measure the average rate of freezing events. The freezing rate is equal to the product of the droplet–particle collision rate and the probability of freezing on a single contact, the latter being a function of temperature, size and composition of the contact ice nuclei. Based on these observations, we show that for the types of particles investigated so far, contact freezing is the dominating freezing mechanism on the time scale of our experiment.

Description: Separating mixtures of aerosol types in airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar data Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8269-8309, 2013 Author(s): S. P. Burton, M. A. Vaughan, R. A. Ferrare, and C. A. Hostetler Knowledge of aerosol type is important for source attribution and for determining the magnitude and assessing the consequences of aerosol radiative forcing. However, atmospheric aerosol is frequently not a single pure type, but instead occurs as a mixture of types, and this mixing affects the optical and radiative properties of the aerosol. This paper extends the work of earlier researchers by using the aerosol intensive parameters measured by the NASA Langley Research Center airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL-1) to develop a comprehensive and unified set of rules for characterizing the external mixing of several key aerosol intensive parameters: extinction-to-backscatter ratio (i.e. lidar ratio), backscatter color ratio, and depolarization ratio. We present the mixing rules in a particularly simple form that leads easily to mixing rules for the covariance matrices that describe aerosol distributions, rather than just scalar values of measured parameters. These rules can be applied to infer mixing ratios from the lidar-observed aerosol parameters, even for cases without significant depolarization. We demonstrate our technique with measurement curtains from three HSRL-1 flights which exhibit mixing between two aerosol types, urban pollution plus dust, marine plus dust, and smoke plus marine. For these cases, we infer a time-height cross-section of mixing ratio along the flight track, and partition aerosol extinction into portions attributed to the two pure types.

Description: Lidar-based remote sensing of atmospheric boundary layer height over land and ocean Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8311-8338, 2013 Author(s): T. Luo, R. Yuan, and Z. Wang Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) processes are important in climate, weather and air quality. A better understanding of the structure and the behavior of the ABL is required for understanding and modeling of the chemistry and dynamics of the atmosphere on all scales. Based on the systematic variations of ABL structures over different surfaces, different lidar-based methods were developed and evaluated to determine the boundary layer height and mixing layer height over land and ocean. With Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Climate Research Facility (ACRF) micropulse lidar (MPL) and radiosonde measurements, diurnal and season cycles of atmospheric boundary layer depth and ABL vertical structure over ocean (TWP_C2 cite) and land (SGP_C1) are analyzed. The new methods are also applied to satellite lidar measurements. The derived global marine boundary layer structure database shows good agreement with marine ABL stratiform cloud top height.

Description: Influence of management of variables, sampling zones and land units on LR analysis for landslide spatial prevision Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2209-2221, 2013 Author(s): R. Greco and M. Sorriso-Valvo Several authors, according to different methodological approaches, have employed logistic Regression (LR), a multivariate statistical analysis adopted to assess the spatial probability of landslide, even though its fundamental principles have remained unaltered. This study aims at assessing the influence of some of these methodological approaches on the performance of LR, through a series of sensitivity analyses developed over a test area of about 300 km 2 in Calabria (southern Italy). In particular, four types of sampling (1 – the whole study area; 2 – transects running parallel to the general slope direction of the study area with a total surface of about 1/3 of the whole study area; 3 – buffers surrounding the phenomena with a 1/1 ratio between the stable and the unstable area; 4 – buffers surrounding the phenomena with a 1/2 ratio between the stable and the unstable area), two variable coding modes (1 – grouped variables; 2 – binary variables), and two types of elementary land (1 – cells units; 2 – slope units) units have been tested. The obtained results must be considered as statistically relevant in all cases (Aroc values 〉 70%), thus confirming the soundness of the LR analysis which maintains high predictive capacities notwithstanding the features of input data. As for the area under investigation, the best performing methodological choices are the following: (i) transects produced the best results (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 93.4%; Aroc = 79.5%); (ii) as for sampling modalities, binary variables (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 98.3%; Aroc = 80.7%) provide better performance than ordinated variables; (iii) as for the choice of elementary land units, slope units (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 100%; Aroc = 84.2%) have obtained better results than cells matrix.

Description: Risk evolution: how can changes in the built environment influence the potential loss of natural hazards? Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2195-2207, 2013 Author(s): B. Schwendtner, M. Papathoma-Köhle, and T. Glade Alpine areas often suffer significant loss and damage due to a range of natural processes such as landslides, debris flows, snow avalanches or floods. Sealing of the soil surface, settling in endangered areas and enhanced human intervention in the natural settings, as well as socio-economic changes, increase the risk and susceptibility of built environments to natural hazards and the costs of the consequences in a spatio-temporal context. The present study examines the loss estimation of a particular debris flow event for different points in time. The event occurred in August 1987, affected the municipality Martell in South Tyrol, Italy, and resulted in a total cost of € 25 million. The approach presented in this paper focuses on the changes of the land use and settlement expansion in the area since 1954 and attempts to assess the monetary impact of a similar event, which could have happened before (1954, 1985) or following the actual event (1992, 1999, 2006). The method applied is based on the use of a vulnerability curve which was developed for the specific area, based on the documentation of the damage of the 1987 event. Based on this curve, a loss estimation was carried out in order to visualise the risk evolution in a period of 52 yr (1954 to 2006). The results show a significant increase in the extent of the built environment (number, size and value of buildings) which consequently reflect an increase of the potential overall loss through the years. The method can be used in order to assess the potential loss for future scenarios based on different spatial patterns of the built environment.

Description: Fast reconstruction of hyperspectral radiative transfer simulations by using small spectral subsets: application to the oxygen A band Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8339-8370, 2013 Author(s): A. Hollstein and R. Lindstrot Hyperspectral radiative transfer simulations are a versatile tool in remote sensing but can pose a major computational burden. We describe a simple method to construct hyperspectral simulation results by using only a small spectral subsample of the simulated wavelength range, thus leading to major speedups in such simulations. This is achieved by computing principal components for a small number of representative hyperspectral spectra and then deriving a reconstruction matrix for a specific spectral subset of channels to compute the hyperspectral data. The method is applied and discussed in detail using the example of top of atmosphere radiances in the oxygen A band, leading to speedups in the range of one to two orders of magnitude when compared to radiative transfer simulations at full spectral resolution.

Description: Wind shear over the Nice Côte d'Azur airport: case studies Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2223-2238, 2013 Author(s): A. Boilley and J.-F. Mahfouf The Nice Côte d'Azur international airport is subject to horizontal low-level wind shears. Detecting and predicting these hazards is a major concern for aircraft security. A measurement campaign took place over the Nice airport in 2009 including 4 anemometers, 1 wind lidar and 1 wind profiler. Two wind shear events were observed during this measurement campaign. Numerical simulations were carried out with Meso-NH in a configuration compatible with near-real time applications to determine the ability of the numerical model to predict these events and to study the meteorological situations generating an horizontal wind shear. A comparison between numerical simulation and the observation dataset is conducted in this paper.

Description: An assessment of cloud top thermodynamic phase products obtained from A-Train passive and active sensors Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8371-8411, 2013 Author(s): S. Zeng, J. Riedi, F. Parol, C. Cornet, and F. Thieuleux The A-Train observations provide an unprecedented opportunity for the production of high quality dataset describing cloud properties. We illustrate in this study the use of one year of coincident POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of the Earth Reflectance), MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) observations to establish a reference dataset for the description of cloud top thermodynamic phase at global scale. We present the results of an extensive comparison between POLDER and MODIS cloud top phase products and discuss those in view of cloud vertical structure and optical properties derived simultaneously from collocated CALIOP active measurements. These results allow to identify and quantify potential biases present in the 3 considered dataset. Among those, we discuss the impacts of observation geometry, thin cirrus in multilayered and single layered cloud systems, supercooled liquid droplets, aerosols, fractional cloud cover and snow/ice or bright surfaces on global statistics of cloud phase derived from POLDER and MODIS passive measurements. Based on these analysis we define criteria for the selection of high confidence cloud phase retrievals which in turn can serve for the establishment of a reference cloud phase product. This high confidence joint product derived from POLDER/PARASOL and MODIS/Aqua can be used in the future as a benchmark for the evaluation of other cloud climatologies, for the assessment of cloud phase representation in models and the development of better cloud phase parametrization in the general circulation models (GCMs).

Description: Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2239-2251, 2013 Author(s): M. L. R. Liberato, J. G. Pinto, R. M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, and I. F. Trigo In winter of 2009–2010 south-western Europe was hit by several destructive windstorms. The most important was Xynthia (26–28 February 2010), which caused 64 reported casualties and was classified as the 2nd most expensive natural hazard event for 2010 in terms of economic losses. In this work we assess the synoptic evolution, dynamical characteristics and the main impacts of storm Xynthia, whose genesis, development and path were very uncommon. Wind speed gusts observed at more than 500 stations across Europe are evaluated as well as the wind gust field obtained with a regional climate model simulation for the entire North Atlantic and European area. Storm Xynthia was first identified on 25 February around 30° N, 50° W over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Its genesis occurred on a region characterized by warm and moist air under the influence of a strong upper level wave embedded in the westerlies. Xynthia followed an unusual SW–NE path towards Iberia, France and central Europe. The role of moist air masses on the explosive development of Xynthia is analysed by considering the evaporative sources. A lagrangian model is used to identify the moisture sources, sinks and moisture transport associated with the cyclone during its development phase. The main supply of moisture is located over an elongated region of the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean with anomalously high SST, confirming that the explosive development of storm Xynthia had a significant contribution from the subtropics.

Description: Seismic behavior of buried pipelines constructed by design criteria and construction specifications of both Korea and the US Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2271-2278, 2013 Author(s): S.-S. Jeon Earthquake loss estimation systems in the US, for example HAZUS (Hazard in US), have been established based on sufficient damage records for the purpose of prevention and efficient response to earthquake hazards; however, in Korea, insufficient data sets of earthquakes and damage records are currently available. In this study, the earthquake damages to pipelines in Korea using the pipeline repair rate (RR) recommended in HAZUS was reevaluated with the degree of confidence when RR is used without modification for the damage estimation of pipelines in Korea. The numerical analyses using a commercial finite element model, ABAQUS, were carried out to compare stresses and strains mobilized in both brittle and ductile pipelines constructed by the design criteria and construction specifications of both Korea and the US. These pipelines were embedded in dense sand overlying three different in situ soils (clay, sand, and gravel) subjected to earthquake excitations with peak ground accelerations (PGAs) of 0.2 to 1.2 g and 1994 Northridge and 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake loadings. The numerical results show that differences in the stress and strain rates are less than 10%. This implies that RR in HAZUS can be used for earthquake damage estimation of pipelines with a 90% confidence level in Korea.

Description: Odin-OSIRIS detection of the Chelyabinsk meteor Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8435-8443, 2013 Author(s): L. A. Rieger, A. E. Bourassa, and D. A. Degenstein On 15 February 2013 an 11 000 ton meteor entered Earth's atmosphere south east of Chelyabinsk creating a large fireball at 23 km altitude. The resulting stratospheric aerosol loading was detected by the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) in a high altitude polar belt. This work confirms the presence and lifetime of the stratospheric debris using the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System (OSIRIS) onboard the Odin satellite. Although OSIRIS coverage begins in mid-March, the measurements show a belt of enhanced scattering near 35 km altitude between 50° N and 70° N. Initially, enhancements show increased scattering of up to 15% over the background conditions, decaying in intensity and dropping in altitude until they are indistinguishable from background conditions by mid-May.

Description: Seismic zones for Azores based on statistical criteria Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2337-2351, 2013 Author(s): M. C. M. Rodrigues and C. S. Oliveira The objective of this paper is to define seismic zones in the Azores based on statistical criteria. These seismic zones will likely be used in seismic simulations of occurrences in the Azores Archipelago. The data used in this work cover the time period from 1915 to 2011. The Azores region was divided into 1° × 1° area units, for which the seismicity and the maximum magnitudes of events were calculated. The seismicity, the largest earthquakes recorded and the geological characteristics of the region were used to group these area units because similar seismic zones must delineate areas with homogeneous seismic characteristics. We have identified seven seismic zones. To verify that the defined areas differ statistically, we considered the following dissimilarity measures (variables): time, size and seismic conditions – the number of seismic events with specific characteristics. Statistical tests, particularly goodness-of-fit tests, allowed us to conclude that, considering these three variables, the seven earthquake zones defined here are statistically distinct.

Description: Sub-ionospheric very low frequency perturbations associated with the 12 May 2008 M = 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2331-2336, 2013 Author(s): A. K. Maurya, R. Singh, B. Veenadhari, S. Kumar, and A. K. Singh The present study reports the VLF (very low frequency) sub-ionospheric perturbations observed on transmitter JJI (22.1 kHz), Japan, received at the Indian low-latitude station, Allahabad ( geographic lat. 25.41° N, long 81.93° E), due to Wenchuan earthquake (EQ) that occurred on 12 May 2008 with the magnitude 7.9 and at the depth of 19 km in Sichuan province of Southwest China, located at 31.0° N, 103.4° E. The nighttime amplitude fluctuation analysis gives a significant increase in fluctuation and dispersion two days before EQ, when it crosses 2σ criterion. However, there was no significant change observed in the amplitude trend. The diurnal amplitude variation shows a significant increase in the amplitude of JJI signal on 11 and 12 May 2008. The gravity wave channel and changes in the electric field associated with this EQ seem to be the potential factors of the observed nighttime amplitude fluctuation, dispersion, and significant increase in the signal strength.

Description: Probabilistic approach to cloud and snow detection on AVHRR imagery Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8445-8507, 2013 Author(s): J. P. Musial, F. Hüsler, M. Sütterlin, C. Neuhaus, and S. Wunderle The derivation of probability estimates complementary to geophysical data sets has gained special attention over the last years. The information about a confidence level of provided physical quantities is required to construct an error budget of higher level products and to correctly interpret final results of a particular analysis. Regarding the generation of products based on satellite data the common input consists of a cloud mask which allows discrimination between surface and cloud signals. Further the surface information is divided between snow and snow-free components. At any step of this discrimination process a misclassification in a cloud/snow mask propagates to higher level products and may alter their usability. Within this scope a novel Probabilistic Cloud Mask (PCM) algorithm suited for the 1×1 km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data is proposed which provides three types of probability estimates between: cloudy/clear-sky, cloudy/snow and clear-sky/snow conditions. As opposed to the majority of available techniques which are usually based on a decision-tree approach in the PCM algorithm all spectral, angular and ancillary information is used in a single step to retrieve the probability estimates from the pre-computed Look Up Tables (LUTs). Moreover, the issue of derivation of a single threshold value for a spectral test was overcome by the concept of multidimensional information space which is divided into small bins by an extensive set of thresholds. The discrimination between snow and ice clouds and detection of broken, thin clouds was enhanced by means of the Invariant Coordinate System (ICS) transformation. The study area covers a wide range of environmental conditions spanning from Iceland through central Europe to northern parts of Africa which exhibit diverse difficulties for cloud/snow masking algorithms. The retrieved PCM cloud classification was compared to the PPSv2012 and MOD35 collection 6 cloud masks, SYNOP weather reports, CALIPSO vertical feature mask version 3 and to MOD10A1 collection 5 snow mask. The outcomes of conducted analyses proved fine detection skills of the PCM method with comparable or better results than the reference PPS algorithm.

Description: Retrieval techniques for airborne imaging of methane concentrations using high spatial and moderate spectral resolution: application to AVIRIS Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8543-8588, 2013 Author(s): A. K. Thorpe, C. Frankenberg, and D. A. Roberts Two quantitative retrieval techniques were evaluated to estimate methane (CH 4 ) enhancement in concentrated plumes using high spatial and moderate spectral resolution data from the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). An Iterative Maximum a Posteriori Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (IMAP-DOAS) algorithm performed well for an ocean scene containing natural CH 4 emissions from the Coal Oil Point (COP) seep field near Santa Barbara, California. IMAP-DOAS retrieval precision errors are expected to equal between 0.31 to 0.61 ppm CH 4 over the lowest atmospheric layer (height up to 1.04 km), corresponding to about a 30 to 60 ppm error for a 10 m thick plume. However, IMAP-DOAS results for a terrestrial scene were adveresly influenced by the underlying landcover. A hybrid approach using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) was particularly effective for terrestrial surfaces because it could better account for spectral variability in surface reflectance. Using this approach, a CH 4 plume was observed immediately downwind of two hydrocarbon storage tanks at the Inglewood Oil Field in Los Angeles, California, with a maximum near surface enhancement of 8.45 ppm above background. At COP, the distinct plume had a maximum enhancement of 2.85 ppm CH 4 above background and was consistent with known seep locations and local wind direction. A sensitivity analysis also indicates CH 4 sensitivity should be more than doubled for the next generation AVIRIS sensor (AVIRISng) due to improved spectral resolution and sampling. AVIRIS-like sensors offer the potential to better constrain emissions on local and regional scales, including sources of increasing concern like industrial point source emissions and fugitive CH 4 from the oil and gas industry.

Description: Effects of solar activity and geomagnetic field on noise in CALIOP profiles above the South Atlantic Anomaly Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8589-8602, 2013 Author(s): V. Noel, H. Chepfer, C. Hoareau, M. Reverdy, and G. Cesana By documenting noise levels in 6.5 yr of nighttime measurements by the spaceborne lidar CALIOP above the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), we show they contain information about the evolution of upwelling high-energy radiation levels in the area. We find the amount of noisy profiles is influenced by the 11 yr cycle of solar activity, fluctuates by ±5% between 2006 and 2013, and is anticorrelated with solar activity with a 1 yr lag. The size of the SAA grows as solar activity decreases, and an overall westward shift of the SAA region is detectable. We predict SAA noise levels will increase anew after 2014, and will affect future spaceborne lidar missions most near 2020. In other areas, supposedly unaffected by incoming sunlight, nighttime noise levels are much weaker but follow the same 11 yr cycle, superimposed with a one-year cycle that affects both hemispheres similarly and could be attributed to geomagnetic activity.

Description: A catalog of high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2867-2882, 2014 Author(s): P. Stucki, S. Brönnimann, O. Martius, C. Welker, M. Imhof, N. von Wattenwyl, and N. Philipp In recent decades, extremely hazardous windstorms have caused enormous losses to buildings, infrastructure and forests in Switzerland. This has increased societal and scientific interest in the intensity and frequency of historical high-impact storms. However, high-resolution wind data and damage statistics mostly span recent decades only. For this study, we collected quantitative (e.g., volumes of windfall timber, losses relating to buildings) and descriptive (e.g., forestry or insurance reports) information on the impact of historical windstorms. To define windstorm severity, normalized and declustered quantitative data were processed by extreme value statistics. Descriptive information was classified using a conceptual guideline. Validation with independent damage information, as well as comparison with wind measurements and a reanalysis, indicates that the most hazardous winter storms are captured, while too few moderate windstorms are detected. Strong storms in the wind measurements and reanalysis are thus added to the catalog. The final catalog encompasses approximately 240 high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859. It features three robust severity classes and contains eight extreme windstorms. Evidence of high winter storm activity in the early and late 20th century compared to the mid-20th century in both damage and wind data indicates a co-variability of hazard and related damage on decadal timescales.

Description: A GIS-based model to estimate flood consequences and the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in urban areas Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2847-2865, 2014 Author(s): R. Albano, A. Sole, J. Adamowski, and L. Mancusi Efficient decision-making regarding flood risk reduction has become a priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries. Risk analysis methods and techniques are a useful tool for evaluating costs and benefits of possible interventions. Within this context, a methodology to estimate flood consequences was developed in this paper that is based on GIS, and integrated with a model that estimates the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in an urban area. The majority of the currently available approaches do not properly analyse road network connections and dependencies within systems, and as such a loss of roads could cause significant damages and problems to emergency services in cases of flooding. The proposed model is unique in that it provides a maximum-impact estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk), in the emergency phase. The results of a case study in the Puglia region in southern Italy are described to illustrate the practical applications of this newly proposed approach. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for defining a hierarchy between different infrastructure in the urban area through the identification of particular components whose operation and efficiency are critical for emergency management. This information can be used by decision-makers to prioritize risk reduction interventions in flood emergencies in urban areas, given limited financial resources.

Description: Wind waves in the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2883-2897, 2014 Author(s): V. S. Arkhipkin, F. N. Gippius, K. P. Koltermann, and G. V. Surkova In this study we describe the wind wave fields in the Black Sea. The general aims of the work were the estimation of statistical wave parameters and the assessment of interannual and seasonal wave parameter variability. The domain of this study was the entire Black Sea. Wave parameters were calculated by means of the SWAN wave model on a 5 × 5 km rectangular grid. Initial conditions (wind speed and direction) for the period between 1949 and 2010 were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. According to our calculations the average significant wave height on the Black Sea does not exceed 0.7 m. Areas of most significant heavy sea are the southwestern and the northeastern parts of the sea as expressed in the spatial distribution of significant wave heights, wave lengths and periods. Besides, long-term annual variations of wave parameters were estimated. Thus, linear trends of the annual total duration of storms and of their quantity are nearly stable over the hindcast period. However, an intensification of storm activity is observed in the 1960s–1970s.

Description: Potential of the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor for the monitoring of terrestrial chlorophyll fluorescence Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 7, 12545-12588, 2014 Author(s): L. Guanter, I. Aben, P. Tol, J. M. Krijger, A. Hollstein, P. Köhler, A. Damm, J. Joiner, C. Frankenberg, and J. Landgraf Global monitoring of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) can improve our knowledge about the photosynthetic functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. The feasibility of SIF retrievals from spaceborne atmospheric spectrometers has been demonstrated by a number of studies in the last years. In this work, we investigate the potential of the upcoming TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite mission for SIF retrieval. TROPOMI will sample the 675–775 nm spectral window with a spectral resolution of 0.5 nm and a pixel size of 7 km × 7 km. We use an extensive set of simulated TROPOMI data in order to assess the uncertainty of single SIF retrievals and subsequent spatio-temporal composites. Our results illustrate the enormous improvement in SIF monitoring achievable with TROPOMI with respect to comparable spectrometers currently in-flight, such as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) instrument. We find that TROPOMI can reduce global uncertainties in SIF mapping by more than a factor 2 with respect to GOME-2, which comes together with an about 5-fold improvement in spatial sampling. Finally, we discuss the potential of TROPOMI to accurately map other important vegetation parameters, such as leaf photosynthetic pigments and proxies for canopy structure, which will complement SIF retrievals for a self-contained description of vegetation condition and functioning.

Description: Factors affecting flood insurance purchase in residential properties in Johor, Malaysia Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3297-3310, 2014 Author(s): U. G. Aliagha, T. E. Jin, W. W. Choong, M. Nadzri Jaafar, and H. M. Ali High-impact floods have become a virtually annual experience in Malaysia, yet flood insurance has remained a grossly neglected part of comprehensive integrated flood risk management. Using discriminant analysis, this study seeks to identify the demand-side variables that best predict flood insurance purchase and risk aversion between two groups of residential homeowners in three districts of Johor State, Malaysia: those who purchased flood insurance and those who did not. Our results revealed an overall 34% purchase rate, with Kota Tinggi district having the highest (44%) and thus the highest degree of flood risk aversion. The Wilks' lambda F test for equality of group means, standardised discriminant function coefficients, structure correlation, and canonical correlation has clearly shown that there are strong significant attribute differences between the two groups of homeowners, based on the measures of objective flood risk exposure, subjective risk perception, and socio-economic cum demographic variables. However, the measures of subjective risk perception were found to be more predictive of flood insurance purchase and flood risk aversion.

Description: Kinematics of a mass movement constrained by sparse and inhomogeneous data Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1609-1618, 2011 Author(s): M. Karbon, E. Brückl, E. Hegedüs, and A. Preh On 12 February 2008, a landslide occurred along a 50 m high bank of the Danube river near Dunaszekcsö, Hungary. The initial state is only incompletely documented and the geodetic data acquired after the mass movement are sparse. A generalized 3-D topographic model of the landslide and its surrounding area was assembled and a representative longitudinal profile extracted. The reconstruction of the original surface is based on an orthophoto as well as on morphological considerations. Recorded observations include the locations of the outcrops of basal sliding surfaces, displacements at the main scarp and in the lower part of the slide, and a value to describe the total mass transport. Such sparse and inhomogeneous data were insufficient to derive a comprehensive documentation of the landslide or obtain adequate constraints for an accurate numerical analysis. Therefore, slider block models were fitted to the field data, which have only a small number of free parameters. A general view on the morphology of the mass movement justifies its classification as a rotational slide. A double slider block model fits all observational parameters within their error margin and supplies valuable information on the geometry of the slide. Estimates of the residual friction angles were derived and the question of reactivation was addressed. Finite Difference (FD) modelling and the application of conventional stability analysis support the geometry of the slider blocks and the computed average residual friction angles. Generally, the results are assumed to represent preliminary information, which could only be attained by the combination of the thinly distributed geodetic data with qualitative morphological observations and the implementation of a model. This type of information can be gained quickly and may be valuable for preliminary hazard mitigation measures or the planning of a comprehensive exploration and monitoring program.

Description: The Level 2 research product algorithms for the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3593-3645, 2011 Author(s): P. Baron, J. Urban, H. Sagawa, J. Möller, D. P. Murtagh, J. Mendrok, E. Dupuy, T. O. Sato, S. Ochiai, K. Suzuki, T. Manabe, T. Nishibori, K. Kikuchi, R. Sato, M. Takayanagi, Y. Murayama, M. Shiotani, and Y. Kasai This paper describes the algorithms of the level-2 research (L2r) processing chain developed for the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES). The chain has been developed in parallel to the operational chain for conducting researches on calibration and retrieval algorithms. L2r chain products are available to the scientific community. The objective of version 2 is the retrieval of the vertical distribution of trace gases in the altitude range of 18–90 km. An theoretical error analysis is conducted to estimate the retrieval feasibility of key parameters of the processing: line-of-sight elevation tangent altitudes (or angles), temperature and O 3 profiles. The line-of-sight tangent altitudes are retrieved between 20 and 50 km from the strong ozone (O 3 ) line at 625.371 GHz, with low correlation with the O 3 volume-mixing ratio and temperature retrieved profiles. Neglecting the non-linearity of the radiometric gain in the calibration procedure is the main systematic error. It is large for the retrieved temperature (between 5–10 K). Therefore, atmospheric pressure can not be derived from the retrieved temperature, and, then, in the altitude range where the line-of-sight tangent altitudes are retrieved, the retrieved trace gases profiles are found to be better represented on pressure levels than on altitude levels. The error analysis for the retrieved HOCl profile demonstrates that best results for inverting weak lines can be obtained by using narrow spectral windows. Future versions of the L2r algorithms will improve the temperature/pressure retrievals and also provide information in the upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric region (e.g., water vapor, ice content, O 3 ) and on stratospheric and mesospheric line-of-sight winds.

Description: Near infrared nadir sounding of vertical column densities: methodology and application to SCIAMACHY Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3685-3737, 2011 Author(s): S. Gimeno García, F. Schreier, G. Lichtenberg, and S. Slijkhuis Nadir observations with the shortwave infrared channels of SCIAMACHY onboard the ENVISAT satellite can be used to derive information on atmospheric gases such as CO, CH 4 , N 2 O, CO 2 , and H 2 O. For the operational level 1b–2 processing of SCIAMACHY data a new retrieval code BIRRA (Beer InfraRed Retrieval Algorithm) has been developed: BIRRA performs a nonlinear least squares fit of the measured radiance, where molecular concentration vertical profiles are scaled to fit the observed data. Here we present the forward modeling (radiative transfer) and inversion (least squares optimization) fundamentals of the code along with the further processing steps required to generate higher level products such as global distributions and time series. Moreover, various aspects of level 1 (observed spectra) and auxiliary input data relevant for successful retrievals are discussed. BIRRA is currently used for operational analysis of carbon monoxide vertical column densities from SCIAMACHY channel 8 observations, and is being prepared for methane retrievals using channel 6 spectra. A set of representative CO retrievals and first CH 4 results are presented to demonstrate BIRRA's capabilities.

Description: Volatilizable biogenic organic compounds (VBOCs) with two dimensional gas chromatography-time of flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC-TOFMS): sampling methods, VBOC complexity, and chromatographic retention data Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3647-3684, 2011 Author(s): J. F. Pankow, W. Luo, A. N. Melnychenko, K. C. Barsanti, L. M. Isabelle, C. Chen, A. B. Guenther, and T. N. Rosenstiel Two dimensional gas chromatography (GC × GC) with detection by time-of-flight mass spectrometry (TOFMS) was applied in the rapid analysis of air samples containing highly complex mixtures of volatilizable biogenic organic compounds (VBOCs). VBOC analytical methodologies are briefly reviewed, and optimal conditions are discussed for sampling with both adsorption/thermal desorption (ATD) cartridges and solid-phase microextraction (SPME) fibers. Air samples containing VBOC emissions from leaves of two tree species ( Cedrus atlantica and Calycolpus moritzianus ) were obtained by both ATD and SPME. The optimized gas chromatographic conditions utilized a 45 m, 0.25 mm I.D. low-polarity primary column (DB-VRX, 1.4 μm film) and a 1.5 m, 0.25 mm I.D. polar secondary column (Stabilwax® 0.25 μm film). Excellent separation was achieved in a 36 min temperature programmed GC × GC chromatogram. Thousands of VBOC peaks were present in the sample chromatograms; hundreds of tentative identifications by NIST mass spectral matching are provided. Very few of the tentatively identified compounds are currently available as authentic standards. Method detection limit values for a 5 l ATD sample were 3.5 pptv (10 ng m −3 ) for isoprene, methyl vinyl ketone, and methacrolein, and ~1.5 pptv (~10 ng m −3 ) for monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes. Kovats-type chromatographic retention index values on the primary column and relative retention time values on the secondary column are provided for 21 standard compounds and for 417 tentatively identified VBOCs. 19 of the 21 authentic standard compounds were found in one of the Cedrus atlantica SPME samples. In addition, easily quantifiable levels of at least 13 sesquiterpenes were found in an ATD sample obtained from a branch enclosure of Calycolpus moritzianus . Overall, the results obtained via GC × GC-TOFMS highlight an extreme, and largely uncharacterized diversity of VBOCs, consistent with the hypothesis that sesquiterpenes and other compounds beyond the current list of typically determined VBOC analytes may well be important contributors to global atmospheric levels of organic particulate matter.

Description: Looking for evidence of climate change impacts in the eastern Irish Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1641-1656, 2011 Author(s): L. S. Esteves, J. J. Williams, and J. M. Brown Although storminess is often cited as a driver of long-term coastal erosion, a lack of suitable datasets has only allowed objective assessment of this claim in a handful of case studies. This reduces our ability to understand and predict how the coastline may respond to an increase in "storminess" as suggested by global and regional climate models. With focus on 16 km of the Sefton coastline bordering the eastern Irish Sea (UK), this paper analyses available measured datasets of water level, surge level, wave height, wind speed and barometric pressure with the objective of finding trends in metocean climate that are consistent with predictions. The paper then examines rates of change in shoreline position over the period 1894 to 2005 with the aim of establishing relationships with climatic variability using a range of measured and modelled metocean parameters (with time spans varying from two to eight decades). With the exception of the mean monthly wind speed, available metocean data do not indicate any statistically significant changes outside seasonal and decadal cycles. No clear relationship was found between changes in metocean conditions and rates of shoreline change along the Sefton coast. High interannual variability and the lack of long-term measurements make unambiguous correlations between climate change and shoreline evolution problematic. However, comparison between the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAOw) and coastline changes suggest increased erosion at times of decreasing NAOw values and reduced erosion at times of increasing NAOw values. Erosion tends to be more pronounced when decreasing NAOw values lead to a strong negative NAO phase. At present, anthropogenic changes in the local sediment budget and the short-term impact of extreme events are still the largest threat likely to affect coastal flooding and erosion risk in the short- and medium-term. Nevertheless, the potential impacts of climate change in the long-term should not be ignored.

Description: Comparing historical-hydrogeomorphological reconstitution and hydrological-hydraulic modelling in the estimation of flood-prone areas – a case study in Central Portugal Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1669-1681, 2011 Author(s): P. P. Santos, A. O. Tavares, and A. I. A. S. S. Andrade The Arunca River basin in Central Portugal has a historical record of hazardous events related to floods, causing widespread disturbance. This article describes the application of two approaches based on well-known methods for the estimation of flood-prone areas: (i) historical-hydrogeomorphological reconstitution, applied to the entire Arunca River basin, and (ii) hydrological-hydraulic modelling, applied to four sections selected from different (upper, middle and lower) sectors of the basin and including urban and rural areas along the Arunca River. The mapping of the flood-prone areas obtained by these two methods was compared in order to identify the main differences and similarities. Human interventions (river channel and floodplain morphological changes) were found to be the main factor explaining the differences and similarities between the results obtained by both methods. The application of hydrological-hydraulic modelling proved important in reinforcing the results of the historical-hydrogeomorphological method; it also helped in complementing the results produced by the latter method in urban areas and in areas with insufficient historical records. The application of the historical-hydrogeomorphological method, in turn, allowed for the size of the flood-prone areas to be determined where the primary data (e.g. geometry, roughness and flow) was not accurate enough for hydrological-hydraulic modelling. The methodological approach adopted demonstrates the strong complementary relationship between the different existing methods for estimating flood-prone areas, and may be reproduced for other drainage basins.

Description: The contribution of engineering surveys by means of GPS to the determination of crustal movements in Istanbul Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1705-1713, 2011 Author(s): M. Özyaşar and M. T. Özlüdemir Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are space based positioning techniques and widely used in geodetic applications. Geodetic networking accomplished by engineering surveys constitutes one of these tasks. Geodetic networks are used as the base of all kinds of geodetic implementations, Co from the cadastral plans to the relevant surveying processes during the realization of engineering applications. Geodetic networks consist of control points positioned in a defined reference frame. In fact, such positional information could be useful for other studies as well. One of such fields is geodynamic studies that use the changes of positions of control stations within a network in a certain time period to understand the characteristics of tectonic movements. In Turkey, which is located in tectonically active zones and struck by major earthquakes quite frequently, the positional information obtained in engineering surveys could be very useful for earthquake related studies. For this purpose, a GPS (Global Positioning System) network of 650 stations distributed over Istanbul (Istanbul GPS Triangulation Network; abbreviated IGNA) covering the northern part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) was established in 1997 and measured in 1999. From 1998 to 2004, the IGNA network was extended to 1888 stations covering an area of about 6000 km 2 , the whole administration area of Istanbul. All 1888 stations within the IGNA network were remeasured in 2005. In these two campaigns there existed 452 common points, and between these two campaigns two major earthquakes took place, on 17 August and 12 November 1999 with a Richter scale magnitude of 7.4 and 7.2, respectively. Several studies conducted for estimating the horizontal and vertical displacements as a result of these earthquakes on NAFZ are discussed in this paper. In geodynamic projects carried out before the earthquakes in 1999, an annual average velocity of 2–2.5 cm for the stations along the NAFZ were estimated. Studies carried out using GPS observations in the same area after these earthquakes indicated that point displacements vary depending on their distance to the epicentres of the earthquakes. But the directions of point displacements are similar. The results obtained through the analysis of the IGNA network also show that there is a common trend in the directions of point displacements in the study area. In this paper, the past studies about the tectonics of Marmara region are summarised and the results of the displacement analysis on the IGNA network are discussed.

Description: Correcting orbital drift signal in the time series of AVHRR derived convective cloud fraction using rotated empirical orthogonal function Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3877-3890, 2011 Author(s): A. Devasthale, K. Karlsson, J. Quaas, and H. Grassl The AVHRRs instruments onboard the series of NOAA satellites offer the longest available meteorological data records from space. These satellites have drifted in orbit resulting in shifts in the local time sampling during the life span of sensors onboard. Depending on the amplitude of a diurnal cycle of the geophysical parameters derived, orbital drift may cause spurious trends in their time series. We investigate tropical deep convective clouds, which show pronounced diurnal cycle amplitude, to bracket an upper bound of the impact of orbital drift on their time series. We carry out a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis and show that the REOFs are useful in delineating orbital drift signal and, more importantly, in correcting this signal in the time series of convective cloud amount. These results will help facilitate the derivation of homogenized data series of cloud amount from NOAA satellite sensors and ultimately analyzing trends from them. However, we suggest detailed comparison of various methods and their rigorous testing before applying final orbital drift corrections.

Description: Quantitative estimation of landslide risk from rapid debris slides on natural slopes in the Nilgiri hills, India Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1723-1743, 2011 Author(s): P. Jaiswal, C. J. van Westen, and V. Jetten A quantitative procedure for estimating landslide risk to life and property is presented and applied in a mountainous area in the Nilgiri hills of southern India. Risk is estimated for elements at risk located in both initiation zones and run-out paths of potential landslides. Loss of life is expressed as individual risk and as societal risk using F-N curves, whereas the direct loss of properties is expressed in monetary terms. An inventory of 1084 landslides was prepared from historical records available for the period between 1987 and 2009. A substantially complete inventory was obtained for landslides on cut slopes (1042 landslides), while for natural slopes information on only 42 landslides was available. Most landslides were shallow translational debris slides and debris flowslides triggered by rainfall. On natural slopes most landslides occurred as first-time failures. For landslide hazard assessment the following information was derived: (1) landslides on natural slopes grouped into three landslide magnitude classes, based on landslide volumes, (2) the number of future landslides on natural slopes, obtained by establishing a relationship between the number of landslides on natural slopes and cut slopes for different return periods using a Gumbel distribution model, (3) landslide susceptible zones, obtained using a logistic regression model, and (4) distribution of landslides in the susceptible zones, obtained from the model fitting performance (success rate curve). The run-out distance of landslides was assessed empirically using landslide volumes, and the vulnerability of elements at risk was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific risk was estimated individually for tea/coffee and horticulture plantations, transport infrastructures, buildings, and people both in initiation and run-out areas. Risks were calculated by considering the minimum, average, and maximum landslide volumes in each magnitude class and the corresponding minimum, average, and maximum run-out distances and vulnerability values, thus obtaining a range of risk values per return period. The results indicate that the total annual minimum, average, and maximum losses are about US$ 44 000, US$ 136 000 and US$ 268 000, respectively. The maximum risk to population varies from 2.1 × 10 −1 for one or more lives lost to 6.0 × 10 −2 yr −1 for 100 or more lives lost. The obtained results will provide a basis for planning risk reduction strategies in the Nilgiri area.

Description: Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1795-1805, 2011 Author(s): R. Moratiel, R. L. Snyder, J. M. Durán, and A. M. Tarquis The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows possible future situations 50 yr from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ET o ). The maximum temperature ( T max ), minimum temperature ( T min ), dew point ( T d ), wind speed ( U ) and net radiation ( R n ) trends during the 1980–2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman-Montheith equation to estimate ET o . Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO 2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, taking the concentration of CO 2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly) into consideration. The scenarios studied showed the changes in ET o as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables T max , T min , T d , U and R n with current and future CO 2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ET o showed increases between 118 mm (11 %) and 55 mm (5 %) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin's crops.

Description: Possible interrelation between the lead time of precursory seismic electric signals (SES) and geodynamics in Aegean Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1599-1603, 2011 Author(s): E. Dologlou The seismicity of the last 15 years in the Aegean Sea revealed that earthquakes ( M w 〉 5) with epicentres falling within the Sporades basin and the confined area north of Samos island were preceded by electric seismic signals (SES) with a remarkably long lead time. A possible explanation of this behaviour by means of specific tectonics and geodynamics which characterise these two regions, such as a significant small crustal thickness and a high heat flow rate, has been attempted. New data seem to strengthen the above hypothesis.

Description: Sensitivity studies for a space-based methane lidar mission Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3545-3592, 2011 Author(s): C. Kiemle, M. Quatrevalet, G. Ehret, A. Amediek, A. Fix, and M. Wirth Methane is the third most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after water vapour and carbon dioxide. A major handicap to quantify the emissions at the Earth's surface in order to better understand biosphere-atmosphere exchange processes and potential climate feedbacks is the lack of accurate and global observations of methane. Space-based integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar has potential to fill this gap, and a Methane Remote Lidar Mission (MERLIN) on a small satellite in Polar orbit was proposed by DLR and CNES in the frame of a German-French climate monitoring initiative. System simulations are used to identify key performance parameters and to find an advantageous instrument configuration, given the environmental, technological, and budget constraints. The sensitivity studies use representative averages of the atmospheric and surface state to estimate the measurement precision, i.e. the random uncertainty due to instrument noise. Key performance parameters for MERLIN are average laser power, telescope size, orbit height, surface reflectance, and detector noise. A modest-size lidar instrument with 0.45 W average laser power and 0.55 m telescope diameter on a 506 km orbit could provide 50-km averaged methane column measurement along the sub-satellite track with a precision of about 1 % over vegetation. The use of a methane absorption trough at 1.65 μm improves the near-surface measurement sensitivity and vastly relaxes the wavelength stability requirement that was identified as one of the major technological risks in the pre-phase A studies for A-SCOPE, a space-based IPDA lidar for carbon dioxide at the European Space Agency. Minimal humidity and temperature sensitivity at this wavelength position will enable accurate measurements in tropical wetlands, key regions with largely uncertain methane emissions. In contrast to actual passive remote sensors, measurements in Polar Regions will be possible and biases due to aerosol layers and thin ice clouds will be minimised.

Description: Information operator approach applied to the retrieval of the vertical distribution of atmospheric constituents from ground-based high-resolution FTIR measurements Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3739-3785, 2011 Author(s): C. Senten, M. De Mazière, G. Vanhaelewyn, and C. Vigouroux The analysis of high spectral resolution Fourier Transform infrared (FTIR) solar absorption spectra is an important issue in remote sensing. If this is done carefully, one can obtain information, not only about the total column abundances, but also about the vertical distribution of various constituents in the atmosphere. This work introduces the application of the information operator approach for extracting vertical profile information from ground-based FTIR measurements. The algorithm is implemented and tested within the well-known retrieval code SFIT2, adapting the optimal estimation method such as to take into account only the significant contributions to the solution. In particular, we demonstrate the feasibility of the method in an application to ground-based FTIR spectra taken in the frame of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) at Ile de La Réunion (21° S, 55° E). A thorough comparison is made between the original optimal estimation method and this alternative retrieval algorithm, regarding information content, retrieval robustness and corresponding full error budget evaluation for the target species ozone (O 3 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), methane (CH 4 ), and carbon monoxide (CO). For O 3 and CH 4 , a comparison with the Tikhonov regularization method has also been made. It is shown that the information operator approach performs well and in most cases yields both a better accuracy and stability than the optimal estimation method. Additionally, the information operator approach has the advantage of being less sensitive to the choice of a priori information. The Tikhonov regularization results seem to be situated between both methods' results, as to profile retrievals, error budgets and column stability.

Description: Opportunistic validation of sulfur dioxide in the Sarychev Peak volcanic eruption cloud Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3861-3875, 2011 Author(s): S. A. Carn and T. M. Lopez We report attempted validation of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) retrievals in the stratospheric volcanic cloud from Sarychev Peak (Kurile Islands) in June 2009, through opportunistic deployment of a ground-based ultraviolet (UV) spectrometer (FLYSPEC) as the volcanic cloud drifted over Central Alaska. The volcanic cloud altitude (~12–14 km) was constrained using coincident CALIPSO lidar observations. By invoking some assumptions about the spatial distribution of SO 2 , we derive averages of FLYSPEC vertical SO 2 columns for comparison with OMI SO 2 measurements. Despite limited data, we find minimum OMI-FLYSPEC differences of ~5–6 % which support the validity of the operational OMI SO 2 algorithm. These measurements represent the first attempt to validate SO 2 in a stratospheric volcanic cloud using a mobile ground-based instrument, and demonstrate the need for a network of rapidly deployable instruments for validation of space-based volcanic SO 2 measurements.

Description: Inversion of tropospheric profiles of aerosol extinction and HCHO and NO 2 mixing ratios from MAX-DOAS observations in Milano during the summer of 2003 and comparison with independent data sets Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3891-3964, 2011 Author(s): T. Wagner, S. Beirle, T. Brauers, T. Deutschmann, U. Frieß, C. Hak, J. D. Halla, K. P. Heue, W. Junkermann, X. Li, U. Platt, and I. Pundt-Gruber We present aerosol and trace gas profiles derived from MAX-DOAS observations. Our inversion scheme is based on simple profile parameterisations used as input for an atmospheric radiative transfer model (forward model). From a least squares fit of the forward model to the MAX-DOAS measurements, two profile parameters are retrieved including integrated quantities (aerosol optical depth or trace gas vertical column density), and parameters describing the height and shape of the respective profiles. From these results, the aerosol extinction and trace gas mixing ratios can also be calculated. We apply the profile inversion to MAX-DOAS observations during a measurement campaign in Milano, Italy, September 2003, which allowed simultaneous observations from three telescopes (directed to north, west, south). Profile inversions for aerosols and trace gases were possible on 23 days. Especially in the middle of the campaign (17–20 September 2003), enhanced values of aerosol optical depth and NO 2 and HCHO mixing ratios were found. The retrieved layer heights were typically similar for HCHO and aerosols. For NO 2 , lower layer heights were found, which increased during the day. The MAX-DOAS inversion results are compared to independent measurements: (1) aerosol optical depth measured at an AERONET station at Ispra; (2) near-surface NO 2 and HCHO (formaldehyde) mixing ratios measured by long path DOAS and Hantzsch instruments at Bresso; (3) vertical profiles of HCHO and aerosols measured by an ultra light aircraft. Depending on the viewing direction, the aerosol optical depths from MAX-DOAS are either smaller or larger than those from AERONET observations. Similar comparison results are found for the MAX-DOAS NO 2 mixing ratios versus long path DOAS measurements. In contrast, the MAX-DOAS HCHO mixing ratios are generally higher than those from long path DOAS or Hantzsch instruments. The comparison of the HCHO and aerosol profiles from the aircraft showed reasonable agreement with the respective MAX-DOAS layer heights. From the comparison of the results for the different telescopes, it was possible to investigate the internal consistency of the MAX-DOAS observations. As part of our study, a cloud classification algorithm was developed (based on the MAX-DOAS zenith viewing directions), and the effects of clouds on the profile inversion were investigated. Different effects of clouds on aerosols and trace gas retrievals were found: while the aerosol optical depth is systematically underestimated and the HCHO mixing ratio is systematically overestimated under cloudy conditions, the NO 2 mixing ratios are only slightly affected. These findings are in basic agreement with radiative transfer simulations.

Description: Modeling the ascent of sounding balloons: derivation of the vertical air motion Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3965-4012, 2011 Author(s): A. Gallice, F. G. Wienhold, C. R. Hoyle, F. Immler, and T. Peter A new model to describe the ascent of sounding balloons in the troposphere and lower stratosphere (up to ~30–35 km altitude) is presented. Contrary to previous models, detailed account is taken of both the variation of the drag coefficient with altitude and the heat imbalance between the balloon and the atmosphere. To compensate for the lack of data on the drag coefficient of sounding balloons, a reference curve for the relationship between drag coefficient and Reynolds number is derived from a dataset of flights launched during the Lindenberg Upper Air Methods Intercomparisons (LUAMI) campaign. The transfer of heat from the surrounding air into the balloon is accounted for by solving the radial heat diffusion equation inside the balloon. The potential applications of the model include the forecast of the trajectory of sounding balloons, which can be used to increase the accuracy of the match technique, and the derivation of the air vertical velocity. The latter is obtained by subtracting the ascent rate of the balloon in still air calculated by the model from the actual ascent rate. This technique is shown to provide an approximation for the vertical air motion with an uncertainty error of 0.5 m s −1 in the troposphere and 0.2 m s −1 in the stratosphere. An example of extraction of the air vertical velocity is provided in this paper. We show that the air vertical velocities derived from the balloon soundings in this paper are in general agreement with small-scale atmospheric velocity fluctuations related to gravity waves, mechanical turbulence, or other small-scale air motions measured during the SUCCESS campaign (Subsonic Aircraft: Contrail and Cloud Effects Special Study) in the orographically unperturbed mid-latitude middle troposphere.

Description: Daytime variations of foE connected to earthquakes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1807-1812, 2011 Author(s): E. V. Liperovskaya, V. V. Bogdanov, P.-F. Biagi, C.-V. Meister, and V. A. Liperovsky In the present work it is shown that, in accordance with the observations of the vertical sounding station "Tashkent", the critical foE-frequency of the daytime E-layer increases about one day before winter-earthquakes with magnitudes M 〉 5 and depths of the epicentre of h 〈 60 km, which appeared at distances of R 〈 2000 km from the station. The reliability of the result is larger than 99 %. The phenomenon is not observed for summer-earthquakes. It seems to be determined by the atmospheric wind system. Further, the variations of the foE-frequency are compared with possible simultaneous variations of the critical frequency foF2 of the F2-layer. First results show that only very large changes of the ionisation density in the E-layer influence the ionisation density in the F-region. Therefore, no synchronous growth of the foE- and foF2-frequencies 1–2 days before seismic shocks could be observed.

Description: Shallow circulation groundwater – the main type of water containing hazardous radon concentration Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1695-1703, 2011 Author(s): T. A. Przylibski The main factors affecting the value of 222 Rn activity concentration in groundwater are the emanation coefficient of reservoir rocks ( K em ), the content of parent 226 Ra in these rocks ( q ), changes in the volume and flow velocity as well as the mixing of various groundwater components in the circulation system. The highest values of 222 Rn activity concentration are recorded in groundwaters flowing towards an intake through strongly cracked reservoir rocks undergoing weathering processes. Because of these facts, waters with hazardous radon concentration levels, i.e. containing more than 100 Bq dm −3 222 Rn, could be characterised in the way that follows. They are classified as radon waters, high-radon waters and extreme-radon waters. They belong to shallow circulation systems (at less than a few dozen metres below ground level) and are contemporary infiltration waters, i.e. their underground flow time ranges from several fortnights to a few decades. Because of this, these are usually poorly mineralised waters (often below 0.2–0.5 g dm −3 ). Their resources are renewable, but also vulnerable to contamination. Waters of this type are usually drawn from private intakes, supplying water to one or at most a few households. Due to an increased risk of developing lung tumours, radon should be removed from such waters when still in the intake. To achieve this aim, appropriate legislation should be introduced in many countries.

Description: Precipitation change in Southern Italy linked to global scale oscillation indexes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1683-1694, 2011 Author(s): T. Caloiero, R. Coscarelli, E. Ferrari, and M. Mancini This study investigates precipitation variability in five regions of Southern Italy (Campania, Apulia, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily) using a homogeneous database of about 70 rain gauges with more than 50 years of observation. First, a statistical analysis was performed through the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test in order to determine rainfall the trend on both yearly and seasonal scales. Then, the relationship between the rainfall and some teleconnection pattern indexes was investigated using Spearman's test. The results show remarkable statistically significant negative trends for annual and winter aggregations in most part of the series. Moreover, a strong correlation has emerged between the teleconnection patterns and precipitation in Southern Italy, particularly in winter and on the Tyrrhenian side of the study area.

Description: Reconstruction of Atlantic historical winter coastal storms in the Spanish coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz, 1929–2005 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1715-1722, 2011 Author(s): P. Ribera, D. Gallego, C. Pena-Ortiz, L. Del Rio, T. A. Plomaritis, and J. Benavente This paper presents the reconstruction of a climatological series of winter coastal storms on the northern coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz. This series has been put together using information extracted from regional and local Spanish newspapers. It includes all the storms coming from the Atlantic sector that have been detected during the winter season, from October to March, between 1929 and 2005. In order to validate this historical storm series, it has been compared with storms series identified from quasi-observational data and using different wave heights as thresholds to decide what is to be considered as a coastal storm. Nearly 2.6 reports per year about coastal storms are published in the press which correspond to waves of 3.6 m high or more and to prevailing winds from a direction ranging between SSW and WNW. A long- term positive trend has been detected for the complete storm series. If only the instrumental period is analysed, no significant trend is detected. It is suggested that this difference might be associated with the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the occurrence of storms in this area.

Description: The neutral temperature in the ionospheric dynamo region and the ionospheric F region density during Wenchuan and Pingtung Doublet earthquakes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1759-1768, 2011 Author(s): Y. Y. Sun, K.-I. Oyama, J. Y. Liu, H. K. Jhuang, and C. Z. Cheng One of the possible candidates which modifies the ionosphere before large earthquake is electric field. We presume that the electric field associated with large earthquakes is generated in the ionosphere dynamo region (100–120 km). This paper tries to identify the evidence of the contribution of the neutral atmosphere in the dynamo region. The relationship between the critical frequency at the F2 peak (foF2) and the height profile of the neutral atmosphere temperature was studied for two large earthquakes: Wenchuan, 2008 and Pingtung Doublet, 2006. It is found that the wave amplitude of the vertical wavelength 20–30 km which is usually superposed on the height profile of the neutral atmosphere temperature enhances when the foF2 increases. The correlation between the wave amplitude and foF2 is found better along a longitudinal direction than along latitude direction.

Description: The relationship between the performance of soil conditions and damage following an earthquake: a case study in Istanbul, Turkey Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1745-1758, 2011 Author(s): G. Ç. İnce Istanbul city has experienced many strong earthquakes throughout its history and suffered extensive damage. The old Istanbul (Fatih and Eminonu districts), one of the most densely populated locations of Istanbul city, is a commercial centre and has many significant historical buildings. In this study, the data pertaining to the damage sustained by historical artifacts and structures from past earthquakes, are examined along with the soil amplification of the region, the liquefaction and slope stability risk in relation to the seismic microzonation maps which were prepared using geographic information system techniques. The relationship between soil behaviour and the damage resulting from previous earthquakes. The structural damage observed in the region was in accordance with the microzonation maps. Since the area does not have a high risk in terms of slope stability, this does not have much impact on the level of damage. However, it was found that soil amplification and partial liquefaction contributed to the damage to historical artifacts and structures.

Description: Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1769-1785, 2011 Author(s): B. Groppelli, A. Soncini, D. Bocchiola, and R. Rosso We investigate future (2045–2054) hydrological cycle of the snow fed Oglio (≈1800 km 2 ) Alpine watershed in Northern Italy. A Stochastic Space Random Cascade (SSRC) approach is used to downscale future precipitation from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base and chosen for this purpose based upon previous studies. We then downscale temperature output from the GCMs to obtain temperature fields for the area. We also consider a projected scenario based upon trends locally observed in former studies, LOC scenario. Then, we feed the downscaled fields to a minimal hydrological model to build future hydrological scenarios. We provide projected flow duration curves and selected flow descriptors, giving indication of expected modified (against control run for 1990–1999) regime of low flows and droughts and flood hazard, and thus evaluate modified peak floods regime through indexed flood. We then assess the degree of uncertainty, or spread, of the projected water resources scenarios by feeding the hydrological model with ensembles projections consistent with our deterministic (GCMs + LOC) scenarios, and we evaluate the significance of the projected flow variables against those observed in the control run. The climate scenarios from the adopted GCMs differ greatly from one another with respect to projected precipitation amount and temperature regimes, and so do the projected hydrological scenarios. A relatively good agreement is found upon prospective shrinkage and shorter duration of the seasonal snow cover due to increased temperature patterns, and upon prospective increase of hydrological losses, i.e. evapotranspiration, for the same reason. However, precipitation patterns are less consistent, because HadCM3 and PCM models project noticeably increased precipitation for 2045–2054, whereas CCSM3 provides decreased precipitation patterns therein. The LOC scenario instead displays unchanged precipitation. The ensemble simulations indicate that several projected flow variables under the considered scenarios are significantly different from their control run counterparts, and also that snow cover seems to significantly decrease in duration and depth. The proposed hydrological scenarios eventually provide a what-if analysis, giving a broad view of the possible expected impacts of climate change within the Italian Alps, necessary to trigger the discussion about future adaptation strategies.

Description: A tool for assessing the quality of the Mediterranean cyclone forecast: a numerical index Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1787-1794, 2011 Author(s): M. A. Picornell, A. Jansà, and A. Genovés Cyclones affecting the Mediterranean region, sometimes related to severe weather events, are often not well represented enough in numerical model predictions. Assessing the quality of the forecast of these cyclonic structures would be a significant advance in better knowing the goodness of the weather forecast in this region, and particularly the quality of predictions of high impact phenomena. In order to estimate the cyclone forecast uncertainty in operational models, in this work we compare two cyclone databases for the period 2006–2007: one from the operational analyses of the T799 ECMWF deterministic model; and the other from the forecasts provided by the same model in three ranges, H+12, H+24, and H+48. The skill of the model to detect cyclones and its accuracy in describing their features are assessed. An index is presented as an indicator of the quality of the prediction, derived from the frequency distribution of errors in the prediction of four characteristics of the cyclone: position, central pressure value, geostrophic circulation, and domain. Some sub-indexes are derived to verify each of the variables separately in order to analyse the most frequent sources of error. Other sub-indexes are also defined to indicate possible biases in the numerical prediction model.

Description: Potential and limitations of the MAX-DOAS method to retrieve the vertical distribution of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 4013-4072, 2011 Author(s): T. Vlemmix, A. J. M. Piters, A. J. C. Berkhout, L. F. L. Gast, P. Wang, and P. F. Levelt Muliple Axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) instruments can measure from the ground the absorption by nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) of scattered sunlight seen in multiple viewing directions. This paper studies the potential of this technique to derive the vertical distribution of NO 2 in the troposphere. Such profile information is essential in validation studies in which MAX-DOAS retrievals play a role. The retrieval algorithm used is based on a pre-calculated look-up table and assumes homogeneous mixing of aerosols and NO 2 in layers extending from the surface to a variable height. Two retrieval models are compared: one including and one excluding an elevated NO 2 layer at a fixed altitude in the free troposphere. An ensemble technique is applied to derive retrieved model uncertainties. Sensitivity studies demonstrate that MAX-DOAS based retrievals can make a distinction between an NO 2 layer that extends from the surface to a certain height (having a constant mixing ratio, or a mixing ratio that decreases with altitude) and an elevated NO 2 layer. The height of the elevated NO 2 layer can only be retrieved accurately when the aerosol extinction profile is known and the measurement noise is low. The uncertainty in this elevated NO 2 layer height provides the main source of uncertainty in the retrieval of the free tropospheric contribution to the tropospheric NO 2 column. A comparison was performed with independent data, based on observations done at the CINDI campaign, held in the Netherlands in 2009. Comparison with lidar partial tropospheric NO 2 columns showed a correlation of 0.78, and an average difference of 0.1× 10 15 molec cm −2 . The diurnal evolution of the NO 2 volume mixing ratio measured by in-situ monitors at the surface and averaged over five days with cloud-free mornings, compares quite well to the MAX-DOAS retrieval: a correlation was found of 0.8, and an average difference of 0.2 ppb.

Description: Water isotopic ratios from a continuously melted ice core sample Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 4073-4104, 2011 Author(s): V. Gkinis, T. J. Popp, T. Blunier, M. Bigler, S. Schüpbach, and S. J. Johnsen A new technique for on-line high resolution isotopic analysis of liquid water, tailored for ice core studies is presented. We build an interface between an Infra Red Cavity Ring Down Spectrometer (IR-CRDS) and a Continuous Flow Analysis (CFA) system. The system offers the possibility to perform simultaneuous water isotopic analysis of δ 18 O and δD on a continuous stream of liquid water as generated from a continuously melted ice rod. Injection of sub μl amounts of liquid water is achieved by pumping sample through a fused silica capillary and instantaneously vaporizing it with 100 % efficiency in a home made oven at a temperature of 170 °C. A calibration procedure allows for proper reporting of the data on the VSMOW scale. We apply the necessary corrections based on the assessed performance of the system regarding instrumental drifts and dependance on humidity levels. The melt rates are monitored in order to assign a depth scale to the measured isotopic profiles. Application of spectral methods yields the combined uncertainty of the system at below 0.1 ‰ and 0.5 ‰ for δ 18 O and δD, respectively. This performance is comparable to that achieved with mass spectrometry. Dispersion of the sample in the transfer lines limits the resolution of the technique. In this work we investigate and assess these dispersion effects. By using an optimal filtering method we show how the measured profiles can be corrected for the smoothing effects resulting from the sample dispersion. Considering the significant advantages the technique offers, i.e. simultaneuous measurement of δ 18 O and δD, potentially in combination with chemical components that are traditionally measured on CFA systems, notable reduction on analysis time and power consumption, we consider it as an alternative to traditional isotope ratio mass spectrometry with the possibility to be deployed for field ice core studies. We present data acquired in the framework of the NEEM deep ice core drilling project in Greenland, during the 2010 field season.

Description: Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls through non-homogeneous Poissonian processes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1657-1668, 2011 Author(s): B. Sirangelo, E. Ferrari, and D. L. De Luca A stochastic model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process, characterised by a time-dependent intensity of rainfall occurrence, is employed to explain seasonal effects of daily rainfalls exceeding prefixed threshold values. The data modelling has been performed with a partition of observed daily rainfall data into a calibration period for parameter estimation and a validation period for checking on occurrence process changes. The model has been applied to a set of rain gauges located in different geographical areas of Southern Italy. The results show a good fit for time-varying intensity of rainfall occurrence process by 2-harmonic Fourier law and no statistically significant evidence of changes in the validation period for different threshold values.

Description: Regional frequency analysis of extreme storm surges along the French coast Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1627-1639, 2011 Author(s): L. Bardet, C.-M. Duluc, V. Rebour, and J. L'Her A good knowledge of extreme storm surges is necessary to ensure protection against flood. In this paper we introduce a methodology to determine time series of skew surges in France as well as a statistical approach for estimating extreme storm surges. With the aim to cope with the outlier issue in surge series, a regional frequency analysis has been carried out for the surges along the Atlantic coast and the Channel coast. This methodology is not the current approach used to estimate extreme surges in France. First results showed that the extreme events identified as outliers in at-site analyses do not appear to be outliers any more in the regional empirical distribution. Indeed the regional distribution presents a curve to the top with these extreme events that a mixed exponential distribution seems to recreate. Thus, the regional approach appears to be more reliable for some sites than at-site analyses. A fast comparison at a given site showed surge estimates with the regional approach and a mixed exponential distribution are higher than surge estimates with an at-site fitting. In the case of Brest, the 1000-yr return surge is 167 cm in height with the regional approach instead of 126 cm with an at-site analysis.

Description: A 3-D tomographic trajectory retrieval for the air-borne limb-imager GLORIA Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3805-3859, 2011 Author(s): J. Ungermann, J. Blank, J. Lotz, K. Leppkes, T. Guggenmoser, M. Kaufmann, P. Preusse, U. Naumann, and M. Riese Infrared limb sounding from aircraft can provide 2-D curtains of multiple trace gas species. However, conventional limb sounders view perpendicular to the aircraft axis and are unable to resolve the observed airmass along their line-of-sight. GLORIA (Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere) is a new remote sensing instrument able to adjust its horizontal view angle with respect to the aircraft flight direction from 45° to 135°. This will allow for tomographic measurements of mesoscale structures for a wide variety of atmospheric constituents. Many flights of the GLORIA instrument will not follow closed curves that allow measuring an airmass from all directions. Consequently, it is examined by means of simulations, what results can be expected from tomographic evaluation of measurements made during a straight flight. It is demonstrated that the achievable resolution and stability is enhanced compared to conventional retrievals. In a second step, it is shown that the incorporation of channels exhibiting different optical depth can greatly enhance the 3-D retrieval quality enabling the exploitation of previously unused spectral samples. A second problem for tomographic retrievals is that advection, which can be neglected for conventional retrievals, plays an important role for the time-scales involved in a tomographic measurement flight. This paper presents a method to diagnose the effect of a time-varying atmosphere on a 3-D retrieval and demonstrates an effective way to compensate for effects of advection by incorporating wind-fields from meteorological datasets as a priori information.

Description: High-resolution air quality monitoring from space: a fast retrieval scheme for CO from hyperspectral infrared measurements Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3787-3803, 2011 Author(s): N. Smith, H.-L. Huang, E. Weisz, H. J. Annegarn, and R. B. Pierce The first results of the Fast Linear Inversion Trace gas System (FLITS) retrieval scheme are presented here for CO from IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) measurements using RAQMS (Real time Air Quality Modelling System) as atmospheric background. FLITS is a simple linear inversion scheme with a stable performance that retrieves total column CO concentrations (molec cm −2 ) at single field-of-view (FOV) irrespective of cloud cover. A case study is presented here for a biomass burning plume over the Pacific on 29 March 2010. For each FOV a single tropospheric CO density, vertically integrated over 200–800 hPa, is retrieved with 12 channels in the spectral range 2050–2225 cm −1 . Despite variations in cloud cover and temperature, the degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) of the solution ranges between 0.8 and 0.95. In addition, the retrieval error is at least half the background error of 10 %, with dominant contribution from uncertainty in the measurement and temperature. With its stability and processing speed, FLITS meet two of the key requirements for operational processing. We conclude that the linear combination of space-borne measurements with a chemical transport model in the FLITS retrieval scheme holds potential for real-time air quality monitoring and evaluation of pollutant transport at high spatial resolution.

Description: Probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts on durum wheat in the Mediterranean region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1293-1302, 2011 Author(s): R. Ferrise, M. Moriondo, and M. Bindi Recently, the availability of multi-model ensemble prediction methods has permitted a shift from a scenario-based approach to a risk-based approach in assessing the effects of climate change. This provides more useful information to decision-makers who need probability estimates to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts. In this study, a probabilistic framework for evaluating the risk of durum wheat yield shortfall over the Mediterranean Basin has been exploited. An artificial neural network, trained to emulate the outputs of a process-based crop growth model, has been adopted to create yield response surfaces which are then overlaid with probabilistic projections of future temperature and precipitation changes in order to estimate probabilistic projections of future yields. The risk is calculated as the relative frequency of projected yields below a selected threshold. In contrast to previous studies, which suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration over the next few decades would outweigh the detrimental effects of the early stages of climatic warming and drying, the results of this study are of greater concern.

Description: Debris-flow activity in abandoned channels of the Manival torrent reconstructed with LiDAR and tree-ring data Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1247-1257, 2011 Author(s): J. Lopez Saez, C. Corona, M. Stoffel, A. Gotteland, F. Berger, and F. Liébault Hydrogeomorphic processes are a major threat in many parts of the Alps, where they periodically damage infrastructure, disrupt transportation corridors or even cause loss of life. Nonetheless, past torrential activity and the analysis of areas affected during particular events remain often imprecise. It was therefore the purpose of this study to reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of past debris-flow activity in abandoned channels on the forested cone of the Manival torrent (Massif de la Chartreuse, French Prealps). A Light Detecting and Ranging (LiDAR) generated Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to identify five abandoned channels and related depositional forms (lobes, lateral levees) in the proximal alluvial fan of the torrent. A total of 156 Scots pine trees ( Pinus sylvestris L.) with clear signs of debris flow events was analyzed and growth disturbances (GD) assessed, such as callus tissue, the onset of compression wood or abrupt growth suppression. In total, 375 GD were identified in the tree-ring samples, pointing to 13 debris-flow events for the period 1931–2008. While debris flows appear to be very common at Manival, they have only rarely propagated outside the main channel over the past 80 years. Furthermore, analysis of the spatial distribution of disturbed trees contributed to the identification of four patterns of debris-flow routing and led to the determination of three preferential breakout locations. Finally, the results of this study demonstrate that the temporal distribution of debris flows did not exhibit significant variations since the beginning of the 20th century.

Description: Assessment of possible damaged areas due to landslide-induced waves at a constructed reservoir using empirical approaches: Kurtun (North Turkey) Dam reservoir area Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1341-1350, 2011 Author(s): A. Akgün Landslide-induced wave in lakes or offshore is a natural hazard of significant concern throughout the world. In Turkey, several dam reservoir areas suffer from this problem, motivating for the exploration of this phenomenon. In this study, the potential for landslide-induced wave generation and the possible adverse effects of such an event were investigated for the Kurtun Dam reservoir area. This area is prone to translational debris-type landslides, and such slides represent a threat with respect to wave generation. To investigate this problem, a potential landslide was initially inspected with respect to key geometrical and index parameters, such as the internal friction angle and unit weight of the landslide material. After obtaining these data, the potential of sub-aerial landslide-induced wave characteristics such as wave height, wave run-up on the opposite slope and wave velocity were calculated using existing empirical relationships. Based on the obtained wave properties, a potential damage assessment was performed for vulnerable areas in recognition of the fact that the Kurtun Dam and Kurtun district are threatened by potential wave occurrence. According to the findings obtained from the potential damage assessment, it was determined that the Kurtun district and the Kurtun portion of the Kurtun-Gumushane highway are located within the run-up impact area. However, the Kurtun Dam was determined to be relatively safe due to the distance between the landslide area and the dam.

Description: The sensitivity of warm period precipitation forecasts to various modifications of the Kain-Fritsch Convective Parameterization scheme Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1327-1339, 2011 Author(s): N. Mazarakis, V. Kotroni, K. Lagouvardos, A. A. Argiriou, and C. J. Anderson The sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecasts to various modifications of the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme (CPS) is examined for twenty selected cases characterized by intense convective activity and widespread precipitation over Greece, during the warm period of 2005–2007. The study is conducted using the MM5 model with a two nested domains strategy, with horizontal grid increments of 24 and 8 km, respectively. Five modifications to the KF CPS, each designed to test the sensitivity of the model to the convective scheme formulation, are discussed. The modifications include: (i) the maximization of the convective scheme precipitation efficiency, (ii) the change of the convective time step, (iii) the forcing of the convective scheme to produce more/less cloud material, (iv) changes to the trigger function and (v) the alteration of the vertical profile of updraft mass flux detrainment. The simulated precipitation from the 8-km grid is verified against raingauge measurements. Although skill scores vary widely among the cases and the precipitation thresholds, model results using the modifications of the convective scheme show improvements in 6-h precipitation totals compared to simulations generated using the unmodified convective scheme. In general, forcing the model to produce less cloud material improves the precipitation forecast for the moderate and high precipitation amounts, while the same modification and the change of the convective time step to 1 min has the same result for the high precipitation thresholds. The increase of convective time step to 15 min, the maximization of precipitation efficiency and the changes to the trigger function give similar results for medium and high precipitation. On the other hand, the forecast for the light precipitation is improved by forcing the model to produce more cloud material as well as by the alteration of the vertical profile of updraft mass flux detrainment.

Description: Future changes in European winter storm losses and extreme wind speeds inferred from GCM and RCM multi-model simulations Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1351-1370, 2011 Author(s): M. G. Donat, G. C. Leckebusch, S. Wild, and U. Ulbrich Extreme wind speeds and related storm loss potential in Europe have been investigated using multi-model simulations from global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate models. Potential future changes due to anthropogenic climate change have been analysed from these simulations following the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The large number of available simulations allows an estimation of the robustness of detected future changes. All the climate models reproduced the observed spatial patterns of wind speeds, although some models displayed systematic biases. A storm loss model was applied to the GCM and RCM simulated wind speeds, resulting in realistic mean loss amounts calculated from 20th century climate simulations, although the inter-annual variability of losses is generally underestimated. In future climate simulations, enhanced extreme wind speeds were found over northern parts of Central and Western Europe in most simulations and in the ensemble mean (up to 5%). As a consequence, the loss potential is also higher in these regions, particularly in Central Europe. Conversely, a decrease in extreme wind speeds was found in Southern Europe, as was an associated reduction in loss potential. There was considerable spread in the projected changes of individual ensemble members, with some indicating an opposite signature to the ensemble mean. Downscaling of the large-scale simulations with RCMs has been shown to be an important source of uncertainty. Even RCMs with identical boundary forcings can show a wide range of potential changes. The robustness of the projected changes was estimated using two different measures. First, the inter-model standard deviation was calculated; however, it is sensitive to outliers and thus displayed large uncertainty ranges. Second, a multi-model combinatorics approach considered all possible sub-ensembles from GCMs and RCMs, hence taking into account the arbitrariness of model selection for multi-model studies. Based on all available GCM and RCM simulations, for example, a 25% mean increase in risk of loss for Germany has been estimated for the end of the 21st century, with a 90% confidence range of +15 to +35%.

Description: Evidence of a previously unrecorded local tsunami, 13 April 2010, Cook Islands: implications for Pacific Island countries Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1371-1379, 2011 Author(s): J. Goff Tsunami hazard assessments for Pacific Islands Countries (PICs) tend to focus on subduction zone sources. It is generally recognised that while volcanic-related tsunamigenic sources exist, they are probably only of minor relevance to the overall hazardscape of the Pacific. This paper outlines the evidence for a previously unrecorded local tsunami that struck the uninhabited south coast of Mangaia, Cook Islands, on 13 April 2010. The tsunami had a maximum inundation of 100 m inland and a runup of 12 m a.s.l. This event was most probably caused by a small submarine slope failure, the most recent of an unknown number of previous inundations. Since most PICs have a volcanic origin, it is suggested that current perceptions about the local and regional significance of such events is inaccurate. A review of volcanic-related tsunamigenic sources throughout the Pacific reveals a wealth of data concerning submarine slope failures in particular and a more general background of active volcanism. These sources are as relevant to PICs close to or far away from subduction zones. As populations grow and the coastlines of many PICs and those on the edge of the Pacific Ocean become increasing occupied, the likelihood for loss of life from these events increases.

Description: Early in-flight detection of SO 2 via Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy: a feasible aviation safety measure to prevent potential encounters with volcanic plumes Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 2827-2881, 2011 Author(s): L. Vogel, B. Galle, C. Kern, H. Delgado Granados, V. Conde, P. Norman, S. Arellano, O. Landgren, P. Lübcke, J. M. Alvarez Nieves, L. Cárdenas Gonzáles, and U. Platt Volcanic ash constitutes a risk to aviation, mainly due to its ability to cause jet engines to fail. Other risks include the possibility of abrasion of windshields and potentially serious damage to avionic systems. These hazards have been widely recognized since the early 1980s, when volcanic ash provoked several incidents of engine failure in commercial aircraft. In addition to volcanic ash, volcanic gases also pose a threat. Prolonged and/or cumulative exposure to sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) or sulphuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ) aerosols potentially affects e.g. windows, air frame and may cause permanent damage to engines. SO 2 receives most attention among the gas species commonly found in volcanic plumes because its presence above the lower troposphere is a clear proxy for a volcanic cloud and indicates that fine ash could also be present. Up to now, remote sensing of SO 2 via Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) in the ultraviolet spectral region has been used to measure volcanic clouds from ground based, airborne and satellite platforms. Attention has been given to volcanic emission strength, chemistry inside volcanic clouds and measurement procedures were adapted accordingly. Here we present a set of experimental and model results, highlighting the feasibility of DOAS to be used as an airborne early detection system of SO 2 in two spatial dimensions. In order to prove our new concept, simultaneous airborne and ground-based measurements of the plume of Popocatépetl volcano, Mexico, were conducted in April 2010. The plume extended at an altitude around 5250 m above sea level and was approached and traversed at the same altitude with several forward looking DOAS systems aboard an airplane. These DOAS systems measured SO 2 in the flight direction and at ± 40 mrad (2.3°) angles relative to it in both, horizontal and vertical directions. The approaches started at up to 25 km distance to the plume and SO 2 was measured at all times well above the detection limit. In combination with radiative transfer studies, this study indicates that an extended volcanic cloud with a concentration of 10 12 molecules cm −3 at typical flight levels of 10 km can be detected unambiguously at distances of up to 80 km away. This range provides enough time (approx. 5 min) for pilots to take action to avoid entering a volcanic cloud in the flight path, suggesting that this technique can be used as an effective aid to prevent dangerous aircraft encounters with potentially ash rich volcanic clouds.

Description: Active faults crossing trunk pipeline routes: some important steps to avoid disaster Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1433-1436, 2011 Author(s): V. M. Besstrashnov and A. L. Strom Assessment of seismic strong motion hazard produced by earthquakes originating within causative fault zones allows rather low accuracy of localisation of these structures that can be provided by indirect evidence of fault activity. In contrast, the relevant accuracy of localisation and characterisation of active faults, capable of surface rupturing, can be achieved solely by the use of direct evidence of fault activity. This differentiation requires strict definition of what can be classified as "active fault" and the normalisation of methods used for identification and localisation of active faults crossing oil and natural gas trunk pipelines.

Description: Regional-scale analysis of lake outburst hazards in the southwestern Pamir, Tajikistan, based on remote sensing and GIS Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1447-1462, 2011 Author(s): M. Mergili and J. F. Schneider This paper presents an analysis of the hazards emanating from the sudden drainage of alpine lakes in South-Western Tajik Pamir. In the last 40 yr, several new lakes have formed in the front of retreating glacier tongues, and existing lakes have grown. Other lakes are dammed by landslide deposits or older moraines. In 2002, sudden drainage of a glacial lake in the area triggered a catastrophic debris flow. Building on existing approaches, a rating scheme was devised allowing quick, regional-scale identification of potentially hazardous lakes and possible impact areas. This approach relies on GIS, remote sensing and empirical modelling, largely based on medium-resolution international datasets. Out of the 428 lakes mapped in the area, 6 were rated very hazardous and 34 hazardous. This classification was used for the selection of lakes requiring in-depth investigation. Selected cases are presented and discussed in order to understand the potentials and limitations of the approach used. Such an understanding is essential for the appropriate application of the methodology for risk mitigation purposes.

Description: Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1529-1544, 2011 Author(s): B. Vincendon, V. Ducrocq, O. Nuissier, and B. Vié Mediterranean intense weather events often lead to devastating flash-floods. Extending the forecasting lead times further than the watershed response times, implies the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) to drive hydrological models. However, the nature of the precipitating events and the temporal and spatial scales of the watershed response make them difficult to forecast, even using a high-resolution convection-permitting NWP deterministic forecasting. This study proposes a new method to sample the uncertainties of high-resolution NWP precipitation forecasts in order to quantify the predictability of the streamflow forecasts. We have developed a perturbation method based on convection-permitting NWP-model error statistics. It produces short-term precipitation ensemble forecasts from single-value meteorological forecasts. These rainfall ensemble forecasts are then fed into a hydrological model dedicated to flash-flood forecasting to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The verification on two flash-flood events shows that this forecasting ensemble performs better than the deterministic forecast. The performance of the precipitation perturbation method has also been found to be broadly as good as that obtained using a state-of-the-art research convection-permitting NWP ensemble, while requiring less computing time.

Description: Catalytic oxidation of H 2 on platinum: a method for in situ calibration of hygrometers Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3083-3095, 2011 Author(s): A. W. Rollins, T. D. Thornberry, R.-S. Gao, B. D. Hall, and D. W. Fahey Standard reference samples of water vapor suitable for in situ calibration of atmospheric hygrometers are not currently widespread, leading to difficulties in unifying the calibrations of these hygrometers and potentially contributing to measurement discrepancies. We describe and evaluate a system for reliably and quantitatively converting mixtures of H 2 in air to H 2 O on a heated platinum (Pt) surface, providing a compact, portable, adjustable source of water vapor. The technique is shown to be accurate and can be used to easily and predictably produce a wide range of water vapor concentrations (≈1 ppm−2 %) on demand. The result is a H 2 O standard that is suitable for in situ calibration of hygrometers, with an accuracy nearly that of the available H 2 standards (≈±2 %).

Description: Geomorphological and geochemical characterization of the 11 August 2008 mud volcano eruption at S. Barbara village (Sicily, Italy) and its possible relationship with seismic activity Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1545-1557, 2011 Author(s): P. Madonia, F. Grassa, M. Cangemi, and C. Musumeci On 11 August 2008 a paroxysmal eruption occurred at Santa Barbara mud volcano (MV), located close to Caltanissetta, one of the most densely populated cities of Sicily (Italy). An associated minor event took place on August 2009. Both the events caused severe damage to civil infrastructures located within a range of about 2 km from the eruptive vent. Geomorphological, geochemical, and seismological investigations were carried out for framing the events in the appropriate geodynamic context. Geomorphological surveys recognized, in the immediate surrounding of the main emission point, two different families of processes and landforms: (i) ground deformations and (ii) changes in morphology and number of the fluid emitting vents. These processes were associated to a wider network of fractures, seemingly generated by the shock wave produced by the gas blast that occurred at the main paroxysm. Geochemical characterization allowed an estimation of the source of the fluids, or at least their last standing, at about 3 km depth. Finally, the close time relationships observed between anomalous increments of seismic activity and the two main paroxysmal events accounted for a possible common trigger for both the phenomena, even with different timing due to the very different initial conditions and characteristics of the two processes, i.e. seismogenesis and gas overloading.

Description: A versatile and reproducible automatic injection system for liquid standard introduction: application to in-situ calibration Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3233-3249, 2011 Author(s): G. Isaacman, N. M. Kreisberg, D. R. Worton, S. V. Hering, and A. H. Goldstein The quantitation of trace organic compounds in ambient organic aerosol is difficult due to the chemical complexity of these mixtures, but is needed to provide insight into their sources and formation processes. Compound-level characterization of organic aerosols is typically performed through sample collection followed by gas or liquid chromatography. With these methods, introduction of liquid standards has long been used as an effective means of quantifying trace compounds, but automating this technique for use with in-situ instrumentation has not previously been achieved. Here we develop an automatic injection system (AutoInject) for the introduction of liquids into a custom collection and analysis cell for improved quantitation in chromatographic measurements. The system consists of chilled reservoirs containing liquid standards from which a sample loop is loaded and then injected into the cell. The AutoInject is shown to have reproducibility over 106 injections with a relative standard deviation of 1.5 %, and have negligible injection-to-injection carryover. A 6-port selector allows injection of different liquid standards separately or simultaneously. Additionally, automatic injection of multiple sample loops is shown to generate a linear multi-point calibration curve. Tests conducted in this work focus on use with the T hermal desorption A erosol G as chromatograph (TAG), but the flexibility of the system allows it to be used for a variety of applications.

Description: Spatial resolution of tropical terrestrial CO 2 fluxes inferred using space-borne column CO 2 sampled in different earth orbits: the role of spatial error correlations Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3251-3276, 2011 Author(s): P. I. Palmer, L. Feng, and H. Bösch We use realistic numerical experiments to assess the sensitivity of 8-day CO 2 flux estimates, inferred from space-borne short-wave infrared measurements of column-averaged CO 2 dry air mixing ratio X CO 2 , to the choice of Earth observing orbit. We focus on three orbits: (1) a low-inclination circular orbit used by the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM); (2) a sun-synchronous orbit used by the Japanese Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) and proposed for the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) instrument; and (3) a precessing orbit used by the International Space Station (ISS). For each orbit, we assume an instrument based on the specification of the OCO-2; for GOSAT we use the relevant instrument specification. Sun-synchronous orbits offer near global coverage within a few days but have implications for the density of clear-sky measurements. The TRMM and ISS orbits intensively sample tropical latitudes, with sun-lit clear-sky measurements evenly distributed between a.m./p.m. For a specified spatial resolution for inferred fluxes, we find there is a critical number of measurements beyond which there is a disproportionately small decrease in flux uncertainty. We also find that including spatial correlations for measurements and model errors (of length 300 km) reduces the effectiveness of high measurement density for flux estimation and so should be considered when deciding sampling strategies. We show that cloud-free data from the TRMM orbit generally can improve the spatial resolution of CO 2 fluxes achieved by OCO-2 over tropical South America, for example, from 950 km to 630 km, and that combining data from these low-inclination and sun-synchronous orbits have the potential to reduce this spatial length further. Decreasing the length of the error correlations to 50 km, reflecting anticipated future improvements to transport models, results in CO 2 flux estimates on spatial scales that approach those observed by regional aircraft.

Description: Validation of first chemistry mode retrieval results from new limb- imaging FTS GLORIA with correlative MIPAS-STR observations Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 7, 12691-12717, 2014 Author(s): W. Woiwode, O. Suminska-Ebersoldt, H. Oelhaf, M. Höpfner, G. V. Belyaev, A. Ebersoldt, F. Friedl-Vallon, J.-U. Grooß, T. Gulde, M. Kaufmann, A. Kleinert, M. Krämer, E. Kretschmer, T. Kulessa, G. Maucher, T. Neubert, C. Piesch, P. Preusse, M. Riese, H. Rongen, C. Sartorius, G. Schardt, A. Schönfeld, D. Schuettemeyer, M. K. Sha, F. Stroh, J. Ungermann, C. M. Volk, and J. Orphal We report first chemistry mode retrieval results from the new airborne limb- imaging infrared FTS (Fourier transform spectrometer) GLORIA and comparisons with observations by the conventional airborne limb- scanning infrared FTS MIPAS-STR. For GLORIA, the flights aboard the high-altitude research aircraft M55 Geophysica during the ESSenCe campaign (ESa Sounder Campaign 2011) were the very first in field deployment after several years of development. The simultaneous observations of GLORIA and MIPAS-STR during the flight on 16 December 2011 inside the polar vortex and under the conditions of optically partially transparent polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) provided us the unique opportunity to compare the observations by two different infrared FTS generations directly. The retrieval results of temperature, HNO 3 , O 3 , H 2 O, CFC-11 and CFC-12 show reasonable agreement of GLORIA with MIPAS-STR and collocated in-situ observations. For the horizontally binned hyperspectral limb-images, the GLORIA sampling outnumbered the horizontal cross-track sampling of MIPAS-STR by up to one order of magnitude. Depending on the target parameter, typical vertical resolutions of 0.5 to 2.0 km were obtained for GLORIA and are typically by factors of 2 to 4 better compared to MIPAS-STR. While the improvement of the performance, characterisation and data processing of GLORIA are subject of ongoing work, the presented first results already demonstrate the considerable gain in sampling and vertical resolution achieved with GLORIA.

Description: Moraine-dammed lake failures in Patagonia and assessment of outburst susceptibility in the Baker Basin Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3243-3259, 2014 Author(s): P. Iribarren Anacona, K.P. Norton, and A. Mackintosh Glacier retreat since the Little Ice Age has resulted in the development or expansion of hundreds of glacial lakes in Patagonia. Some of these lakes have produced large (≥ 10 6 m 3 ) Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) damaging inhabited areas. GLOF hazard studies in Patagonia have been mainly based on the analysis of short-term series (≤ 50 years) of flood data and until now no attempt has been made to identify the relative susceptibility of lakes to failure. Power schemes and associated infrastructure are planned for Patagonian basins that have historically been affected by GLOFs, and we now require a thorough understanding of the characteristics of dangerous lakes in order to assist with hazard assessment and planning. In this paper, the conditioning factors of 16 outbursts from moraine-dammed lakes in Patagonia were analysed. These data were used to develop a classification scheme designed to assess outburst susceptibility, based on image classification techniques, flow routine algorithms and the Analytical Hierarchy Process. This scheme was applied to the Baker Basin, Chile, where at least seven moraine-dammed lakes have failed in historic time. We identified 386 moraine-dammed lakes in the Baker Basin of which 28 were classified with high or very high outburst susceptibility. Commonly, lakes with high outburst susceptibility are in contact with glaciers and have moderate (〉 8°) to steep (〉 15°) dam outlet slopes, akin to failed lakes in Patagonia. The proposed classification scheme is suitable for first-order GLOF hazard assessments in this region. However, rapidly changing glaciers in Patagonia make detailed analysis and monitoring of hazardous lakes and glaciated areas upstream from inhabited areas or critical infrastructure necessary, in order to better prepare for hazards emerging from an evolving cryosphere.

Description: Epic landslide erosion from mountain roads in Yunnan, China – challenges for sustainable development Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3093-3104, 2014 Author(s): R. C. Sidle, M. Ghestem, and A. Stokes Expanding systems of mountain roads in developing countries have significantly increased the risk of landslides and sedimentation, and have created vulnerabilities for residents and aquatic resources. We measured landslide erosion along seven road segments in steep terrain in the upper Salween River basin, Yunnan, China and estimated sediment delivery to channels. Landslide erosion rates along the roads ranged from 2780 to 48 235 Mg ha −1 yr −1 , the upper end of this range being the highest rate ever reported along mountain roads. The two roads with the highest landslide erosion (FG1 = 12 966 Mg ha −1 yr −1 ; DXD = 48 235 Mg ha −1 yr −1 ) had some of the highest sediment delivery rates to channels (about 80 and 86%, respectively). Overall, 3 times more landslides occurred along cut slopes compared to fill slopes, but fill slope failures had a combined mass 〉 1.3 times that of cut slope failures. Many small landslides occurred along road cuts, but these were often trapped on the road surface. Given the magnitude of the landslide problem and the lack of attention to this issue, a more sustainable approach for mountain road development is outlined based on an analysis of landslide susceptibility and how thresholds for landslide trigger mechanisms would be modified by road location and different construction techniques.

Description: Evaluation of forest fire models on a large observation database Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3077-3091, 2014 Author(s): J. B. Filippi, V. Mallet, and B. Nader This paper presents the evaluation of several fire propagation models using a large set of observed fires. The observation base is composed of 80 Mediterranean fire cases of different sizes, which come with the limited information available in an operational context (burned surface and approximative ignition point). Simulations for all cases are carried out with four different front velocity models. The results are compared with several error scoring methods applied to each of the 320 simulations. All tasks are performed in a fully automated manner, with simulations run as first guesses with no tuning for any of the models or cases. This approach leads to a wide range of simulation performance, including some of the bad simulation results to be expected in an operational context. Disregarding the quality of the input data, it is found that the models can be ranked based on their performance and that the most complex models outperform the more empirical ones. Data and source codes used for this paper are freely available to the community.

Description: Comparison of nitric oxide measurements in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere from ACE-FTS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, and SMR Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 7, 12735-12794, 2014 Author(s): S. Bender, M. Sinnhuber, T. von Clarmann, G. Stiller, B. Funke, M. López-Puertas, J. Urban, K. Pérot, K. A. Walker, and J. P. Burrows We compare the nitric oxide measurements in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (60 to 150 km) from four instruments: ACE-FTS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, and SMR. We use the daily zonal mean data in that altitude range for the years 2004–2010 (ACE-FTS), 2005–2012 (MIPAS), 2008–2012 (SCIAMACHY), and 2003–2012 (SMR). We first compare the data qualitatively with respect to the morphology, focussing on the major features, and then compare the time series directly and quantitatively. In three geographical regions, we compare the vertical density profiles on coincident measurement days. Since none of the instruments delivers continuous daily measurements in this altitude region, we carried out a multi-linear regression analysis. This regression analysis considers annual and semi-annual variability in form of harmonic terms and inter-annual variability by responding linearly to the solar Lyman-α radiation index and the geomagnetic Kp index. This analysis helps to find similarities and differences in the individual data sets with respect to the inter-annual variations caused by geomagnetic and solar variability. We find that the data sets are consistent and that they only disagree on minor aspects. SMR and ACE-FTS deliver the longest time series in the mesosphere and they both agree remarkably well. The shorter time series from MIPAS and SCIAMACHY also agree with them where they overlap. The data agree within ten to twenty percent when the number densities are large, but they can differ by 50 to 100% in some cases.