ALBERT

Description: [1]  Different solutions have been proposed to solve the ‘faint young Sun problem’, defined by the fact that the Earth was not fully frozen during the Archean despite the fainter Sun. Most previous studies were performed with simple 1D radiative convective models and did not account well for the clouds and ice-albedo feedback or the atmospheric and oceanic transport of energy. We apply a Global Climate Model (GCM) to test the different solutions to the faint young Sun problem. We explore the effect of greenhouse gases (CO 2 and CH 4 ), atmospheric pressure, cloud droplet size, land distribution and Earth's rotation rate. We show that, neglecting organic haze, 100 mbars of CO 2 with 2 mbars of CH 4 at 3.8 Ga and 10 mbars of CO 2 with 2 mbars of CH 4 at 2.5 Ga allow a temperate climate (mean surface temperature between 10 °C and 20 °C). Such amounts of greenhouse gases remain consistent with the geological data. Removing continents produces a warming lower than +4 °C. The effect of rotation rate is even more limited. Larger droplets (radii of 17  µm versus 12  µm ) and a doubling of the atmospheric pressure produce a similar warming of around +7 °C. In our model, ice-free waterbelts can be maintained up to 25° N/S with less than 1 mbar of CO 2 and no methane. An interesting cloud feedback appears above cold oceans, stopping the glaciation. Such a resistance against full glaciation tends to strongly mitigate the faint young Sun problem.

Description: [1]  The Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) is the high spectral resolution spectroradiometer on the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite, providing operational observations of top-of-atmosphere thermal infrared radiance spectra for weather and climate applications. This paper describes the CrIS radiometric calibration uncertainty based on pre-launch and on-orbit efforts to estimate calibration parameter uncertainties, and provides example results of recent post-launch validation efforts to assess the predicted uncertainty. Pre-launch Radiometric Uncertainty (RU) estimates computed for the laboratory test environment are less than ~0.2 K 3-sigma for blackbody scene temperatures above 250 K, with primary uncertainty contributions from the calibration blackbody temperature, calibration blackbody reflected radiance terms and detector nonlinearity. Variability of the pre-launch RU among the longwave band detectors and midwave band detectors is due to different levels of detector nonlinearity. A methodology for on-orbit adjustment of nonlinearity correction parameters to reduce the overall contribution to RU and to reduce FOV-to-FOV variability is described. The resulting on-orbit RU estimates for Earth view spectra are less than 0.2 K 3-sigma in the midwave and shortwave bands, and less than 0.3 K 3-sigma in the longwave band. Post-launch validation efforts to assess the radiometric calibration of CrIS are underway; validation results to date indicate that the on-orbit RU estimates are representative. CrIS radiance products are expected to reach “Validated” status in early 2014.

Description: [1]  An extended Tracking Radar Echo by Correlation (TREC) technique, called T-TREC technique, has been developed recently to retrieve horizontal circulations within tropical cyclones (TCs) from single Doppler radar reflectivity ( Z ) and radial velocity ( V r , when available) data. This study explores, for the first time, the assimilation of T-TREC-retrieved winds for a landfalling typhoon, Meranti (2010), into a convection-resolving model, the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting). The T-TREC winds or the original V r data from a single coastal Doppler radar are assimilated at the single time using the WRF 3DVAR, at 8, 6, 4 and 2 hours before the landfall of typhoon Meranti. In general, assimilating T-TREC winds results in better structure and intensity analysis of Meranti than directly assimilating V r data. The subsequent forecasts for the track, intensity, structure and precipitation are also better, although the differences becomes smaller as the V r data coverage improves when the typhoon gets closer to the radar. The ability of the T-TREC retrieval in capturing more accurate and complete vortex circulations in the inner-core region of TC is believed to be the primary reason for its superior performance over direct assimilation of V r data; for the latter, the data coverage is much smaller when the TC is far away and the cross-beam wind component is difficult to analyze accurately with 3DVAR method.

Description: [1]  Given its large population, vigorous and water-intensive agricultural industry, and important ecological resources, the western United States presents a valuable case study for examining potential near-term changes in regional hydroclimate. Using a high-resolution, hierarchical, five-member ensemble modeling experiment that includes a global climate model (CCSM), a regional climate model (RegCM), and a hydrological model (VIC), we find that increases in greenhouse forcing over the next three decades result in an acceleration of decreases in spring snowpack and a transition to a substantially more liquid-dominated water resources regime. These hydroclimatic changes are associated with increases in cold-season days above freezing and decreases in the cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio. The changes in the temperature and precipitation regime in turn result in shifts toward earlier snowmelt, baseflow, and runoff dates throughout the region, as well as reduced annual and warm-season snowmelt and runoff. The simulated hydrologic response is dominated by changes in temperature, with the ensemble members exhibiting varying trends in cold-season precipitation over the next three decades, but consistent negative trends in cold-season freeze days, cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio, and April 1 st snow water equivalent. Given the observed impacts of recent trends in snowpack and snowmelt runoff, the projected acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S. has important implications for the availability of water for agriculture, hydropower and human consumption, as well as for the risk of wildfire, forest die-off, and loss of riparian habitat.

Description: [1]  The consequences of different Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) nudging widths on stratospheric dynamics and chemistry are analyzed by comparing two model simulations with NCAR's WACCM model where the width of the QBO is varied between 22° and 8.5°N and S. The sensitivity to the nudging width is strongest in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter where the Holton-Tan effect in the polar stratosphere, i.e., stronger zonal mean winds during QBO west phases, is enhanced for the wider compared to the narrower nudging case. The differences between QBO west and east conditions for the two model experiments can be explained with differences in wave propagation, wave-mean flow interaction and the residual circulation. In the wider nudging case a divergence anomaly in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere occurs together with an equatorward anomaly of the residual circulation. This seems to result in a strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient and hence a significant strengthening of the polar night jet (PNJ). In the narrower nudging case these circulation changes are weaker and not statistically significant, consistent with a weaker and less significant impact on the PNJ. Chemical tracers like ozone, water vapour and methane react accordingly. From a comparison of westerly minus easterly phase composite differences in the model to reanalysis and satellite data we conclude that the standard WACCM configuration (QBO22) generates more realistic QBO effects in stratospheric dynamics and chemistry during NH winter. Our study also confirms the importance of the secondary mean meridional circulation associated with the QBO for the Holton-Tan effect.

Description: [1]  The microphysical properties of ice fog were measured at two sites during a small IOP in January and February of 2012 in the Interior Alaska. The NCAR Video Ice Particle Sampler (VIPS) probe and formvar (polyvinyl formal) coated microscope slides were used to sample airborne ice particles at two polluted sites in the Fairbanks region. Both sites were significantly influenced by anthropogenic emission and additional water vapor from nearby open water power plant cooling ponds. Measurements show that ice fog particles were generally droxtal-shaped (faceted, quasi-spherical) for sub-10 µm particles, while plate shaped crystals were the most frequently observed particles between 10 and 50 µm. A visibility cutoff of 3 kilometers was used to separate ice fog events from other observations which were significantly influenced by larger (50–150 µm) diamond dust particles. [2]  The purpose of this study is to more realistically characterize ice fog microphysical properties in order to facilitate better model predictions of the onset of ice fog in polluted environments. Parameterizations for mass and projected area are developed and used to estimate particle terminal velocity. Dimensional characteristics are based on particle geometry and indicated that ice fog particles have significantly lower density values than water droplets as well as reduced cross-sectional areas, the net result being that terminal velocities are estimated to be less than half the value of those calculated for water droplets. Particle size distributions are characterized using gamma functions and have a shape factor (μ) of between −0.5 and −1.0 for polluted ice fog conditions.

Description: Nitrate is a common pollutant in surface water and groundwater of agricultural areas. It is essential to monitor this pollutant in groundwater, especially when it is used for drinking purposes without treatment. The present study was carried out in an intensively irrigated area which forms a part of Nalgonda district, Andhra Pradesh, India where groundwater meets all the water needs of the rural population living in this area. The objective was to assess the spatiotemporal variation in the concentration of nitrate in groundwater and soil. Based on the analysis of 496 groundwater samples collected from 45 wells over a period of 2 years from March 2008 to January 2010 by sampling every 2 months, it was observed that groundwater in 242 km 2 of the total 724 km 2 area had nitrate above the maximum permissible limit of 45 mg/l for drinking purposes. Nitrate concentration in groundwater showed a positive relation with potassium, chloride, and sulfate, indicating their source from fertilizers. Reasons for the high concentration of nitrate in domestic areas were the dumping of animal wastes and leakage from septic tanks. The pH of the soil samples showed that most of the area had basic soil. Apart from pH, organic carbon, available phosphorous, available potassium, ammoniacal nitrogen, and nitrate nitrogen were also analyzed in the 97 soil samples.

Description: Nearly 108-km lengths of Mersin shores are composed of natural beaches. The region is located between major tourist centers. In the future, this region is thought to be built with a great number of tourist facilities. Turkey’s largest seaport, Ataş refinery (Mersin International Port) is located in Mersin. Recently, Mersin is becoming of great importance to Turkey as the latter plans to construct its second nuclear power plant in the region. Therefore, as nuclear power plants are built to withstand environmental hazards, it is very important to analyze the seismic risk of the areas where the nuclear power plant will be constructed. The region is located between the East Anatolian Fault Zone and Center Anatolian Fault Zone. Based on the Turkey Earthquake Regions Map, Mersin is divided into second-, third-, and fourth-degree earthquake regions. In this study, we sampled earthquakes of magnitude of 4.0 or greater between 01 Jan 1900 and 31 Dec 2010 in the area; seismic hazard of Mersin province was estimated with probabilistic and statistical methods. The study area was selected as the coordinates between 36.03° and 37.42° North and 32.57° and 35.16° East. On the study area, different scaled magnitude values in the last 110 years converted to a common scale (Mw) and earthquake catalog was re-compiled and also seismic sources that may affect the area was determined. In this study, the seismic hazards of the region were obtained using the methods of probability and statistics. This study used three different attenuation relationships. Using the attenuation relationships suggested by Boore et al. (Seismol Res Lett 68(1):128–153, 1997 ) and Kalkan and Gülkan (Earthquake Spectra 20:1111–1138, 2004 ), the largest ground acceleration which corresponds to a recurrence period of 475 years was found as 0.08–0.09 g and Akkar and Çağnan (Bull Seismol Soc Am 100 6:2978–2995, 2010 ), 0.04 g for bedrock at the central district. When computing for seismic hazard curves, Mut district appears to have a greater seismic hazard compared with other districts. Moreover, according to the attenuation relationships, seismic hazard curves corresponding to a recurrence period of 475 years were obtained for the Mersin Central, Mut, Erdemli, Çamlıyayla, and Tarsus districts.

Description: This research work has an objective to determine the effective variables in socioeconomic category of Integrated Water Resources Management for Saf-Saf river basin characterized by fast growing demand of urban and rural populations and the demand of economic sectors including industry and agriculture. In this paper, the artificial neural network models were used to model and predict the relationship between water resources mobilization and socioeconomic variables in the Saf-Saf river basin. The study area chosen is Saf-Saf river basin and real data were collected from 30 municipalities for reference year 2010. The results indicate that the feed-forward multilayer perceptron models with back-propagation are useful tools to define and prioritize the most effective variable on water resources mobilization and use. The model evaluation shows that the correlation coefficients are more than 94 % for training, verification, and testing data. The model aims to link the water resources mobilization and driving forces variables with the objective to strengthen the Integrated Water Resources Management approach.

Description: Gazestan phosphate ore deposit (Central Iran) is an apatite deposit which is instrumental in selecting the method of excavation. The position of fault systems and the condition of rock quality also play a role in the method used for mineral resources and ore reserves estimation. Conversely, the Rock Quality Designation (RQD) is a parameter that provides a quantitative judgment of rock mass quality obtained from drill cores. This factor can be applied to detect the fractured zones which occur due to fault systems. Additionally, the faulted areas can be determined by surface geological map and a few by core drilling. Some of the faulted areas are not distinguishable in the surface and are covered by soils, especially within 3D modeling and visualization. In this study, an attempt has been made to establish a relationship between the RQD percentages which were geostatistically simulated and faulted areas through the region. In comparison, the results showed that low RQD domains (RQD 〈20 %) can be interpreted as fault zones; high RQD domains (RQD 〉50 %) correspond to less fractured areas, and the contact between high and low RQD domain is gradual. Therefore, this categorization of RQD domains can be incorporated to detect the faulted zones in 3D models for mine design. Based on the categorization, the uncertainty within the area was calculated to introduce two new core drilling points for the completion of this phase of exploratory grid from the fault structural viewpoint, in order to have a proper model of ore reserve to estimate. It was concluded that this procedure can be utilized for conceptual comprehension of fault trends in 3D modeling for the method selection of excavation and complete the estimation procedure phase.