ALBERT

Description: This paper presents a new technique to derive thermospheric temperature from space-based disk observations of far ultraviolet airglow. The technique, guided by findings from principal component analysis of synthetic daytime Lyman–Birge–Hopfield (LBH) disk emissions, uses a ratio of the emissions in two spectral channels that together span the LBH (2,0) band to determine the change in band shape with respect to a change in the rotational temperature of N2. The two-channel-ratio approach limits representativeness and measurement error by only requiring measurement of the relative magnitudes between two spectral channels and not radiometrically calibrated intensities, simplifying the forward model from a full radiative transfer model to a vibrational–rotational band model. It is shown that the derived temperature should be interpreted as a column-integrated property as opposed to a temperature at a specified altitude without utilization of a priori information of the thermospheric temperature profile. The two-channel-ratio approach is demonstrated using NASA GOLD Level 1C disk emission data for the period of 2–8 November 2018 during which a moderate geomagnetic storm has occurred. Due to the lack of independent thermospheric temperature observations, the efficacy of the approach is validated through comparisons of the column-integrated temperature derived from GOLD Level 1C data with the GOLD Level 2 temperature product as well as temperatures from first principle and empirical models. The storm-time thermospheric response manifested in the column-integrated temperature is also shown to corroborate well with hemispherically integrated Joule heating rates, ESA SWARM mass density at 460 km, and GOLD Level 2 column O/N2 ratio.

Description: Two feature-based verification methods, thus far only used for the diagnostic evaluation of atmospheric models, have been applied to compare ∼7 km resolution pre-operational analyses of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations to a 1 km gridded satellite-derived Chl-a concentration product. The aim of this study was to assess the value of applying such methods to ocean models. Chl-a bloom objects were identified in both data sets for the 2019 bloom season (1 March to 31 July). These bloom objects were analysed as discrete (2-D) spatial features, but also as space–time (3-D) features, providing the means of defining the onset, duration and demise of distinct bloom episodes and the season as a whole. The new feature-based verification methods help reveal that the model analyses are not able to represent small coastal bloom objects, given the coarser definition of the coastline, also wrongly producing more bloom objects in deeper Atlantic waters. Model analyses' concentrations are somewhat higher overall. The bias manifests itself in the size of the model analysis bloom objects, which tend to be larger than the satellite-derived bloom objects. The onset of the bloom season is delayed by 26 d in the model analyses, but the season also persists for another month beyond the diagnosed end. The season was diagnosed to be 119 d long in the model analyses, compared to 117 d from the satellite product. Geographically, the model analyses and satellite-derived bloom objects do not necessarily exist in a specific location at the same time and only overlap occasionally.

Description: Non-Gaussian forecast error is a challenge for ensemble-based data assimilation (DA), particularly for more nonlinear convective dynamics. In this study, we investigate the degree of the non-Gaussianity of forecast error distributions at 1 km resolution using a 1000-member ensemble Kalman filter, and how it is affected by the DA update frequency and observation number. Regional numerical weather prediction experiments are performed with the SCALE (Scalable Computing for Advanced Library and Environment) model and the LETKF (local ensemble transform Kalman filter) assimilating phased array radar observations every 30 s. The results show that non-Gaussianity develops rapidly within convective clouds and is sensitive to the DA frequency and the number of assimilated observations. The non-Gaussianity is reduced by up to 40 % when the assimilation window is shortened from 5 min to 30 s, particularly for vertical velocity and radar reflectivity.

Description: The observing system design of multidisciplinary field measurements involves a variety of considerations on logistics, safety, and science objectives. Typically, this is done based on investigator intuition and designs of prior field measurements. However, there is potential for considerable increases in efficiency, safety, and scientific success by integrating numerical simulations in the design process. Here, we present a novel numerical simulation–environmental response function (NS–ERF) approach to observing system simulation experiments that aids surface–atmosphere synthesis at the interface of mesoscale and microscale meteorology. In a case study we demonstrate application of the NS–ERF approach to optimize the Chequamegon Heterogeneous Ecosystem Energy-balance Study Enabled by a High-density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 (CHEESEHEAD19). During CHEESEHEAD19 pre-field simulation experiments, we considered the placement of 20 eddy covariance flux towers, operations for 72 h of low-altitude flux aircraft measurements, and integration of various remote sensing data products. A 2 h high-resolution large eddy simulation created a cloud-free virtual atmosphere for surface and meteorological conditions characteristic of the field campaign domain and period. To explore two specific design hypotheses we super-sampled this virtual atmosphere as observed by 13 different yet simultaneous observing system designs consisting of virtual ground, airborne, and satellite observations. We then analyzed these virtual observations through ERFs to yield an optimal aircraft flight strategy for augmenting a stratified random flux tower network in combination with satellite retrievals. We demonstrate how the novel NS–ERF approach doubled CHEESEHEAD19's potential to explore energy balance closure and spatial patterning science objectives while substantially simplifying logistics. Owing to its modular extensibility, NS–ERF lends itself to optimizing observing system designs also for natural climate solutions, emission inventory validation, urban air quality, industry leak detection, and multi-species applications, among other use cases.

Description: Improvements in our capability to reconstruct ancient surface-ocean conditions based on organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages from the Southern Ocean provide an opportunity to better establish past position, strength and oceanography of the subtropical front (STF). Here, we aim to reconstruct the late Eocene to early Miocene (37–20 Ma) depositional and palaeoceanographic history of the STF in the context of the evolving Tasmanian Gateway as well as the potential influence of Antarctic circumpolar flow and intense waxing and waning of ice. We approach this by combining information from seismic lines (revisiting existing data and generating new marine palynological data from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 1168A) in the western Tasmanian continental slope. We apply improved taxonomic insights and palaeoecological models to reconstruct the sea surface palaeoenvironmental evolution. Late Eocene–early Oligocene (37–30.5 Ma) assemblages show a progressive transition from dominant terrestrial palynomorphs and inner-neritic dinocyst taxa as well as cysts produced by heterotrophic dinoflagellates to predominantly outer-neritic/oceanic autotrophic taxa. This transition reflects the progressive deepening of the western Tasmanian continental margin, an interpretation supported by our new seismic investigations. The dominance of autotrophic species like Spiniferites spp. and Operculodinium spp. reflects relatively oligotrophic conditions, like those of regions north of the modern-day STF. The increased abundance in the earliest Miocene of Nematosphaeropsis labyrinthus, typical for modern subantarctic zone (frontal) conditions, indicates a cooling and/or closer proximity of the STF to the site . The absence of major shifts in dinocyst assemblages contrasts with other records in the region and suggests that small changes in surface oceanographic conditions occurred during the Oligocene. Despite the relatively southerly (63–55∘ S) location of Site 1168, the rather stable oceanographic conditions reflect the continued influence of the proto-Leeuwin Current along the southern Australian coast as Australia continued to drift northward. The relatively “warm” dinocyst assemblages at ODP Site 1168, compared with the cold assemblages at Antarctic Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1356, testify to the establishment of a pronounced latitudinal temperature gradient in the Oligocene Southern Ocean.

Description: China has experienced dramatic changes in emissions since 2010, which accelerated following the implementation of the Clean Air Action program in 2013. These changes have resulted in significant air quality improvements that are reflected in observations from both surface networks and satellite observations. Air pollutants, such as PM2.5, surface ozone, and their precursors, have long enough lifetimes in the troposphere to be easily transported downwind. Emission changes in China will thus not only change the domestic air quality but will also affect the air quality in other regions. In this study, we use a global chemistry transport model (CAM-chem) to simulate the influence of Chinese emission changes from 2010 to 2017 on both domestic and foreign air quality. We then quantify the changes in air-pollution-associated (including both PM2.5 and O3) premature mortality burdens at regional and global scales. Within our simulation period, the population-weighted annual PM2.5 concentration in China peaks in 2011 (94.1 µg m−3) and decreases to 69.8 µg m−3 by 2017. These estimated national PM2.5 concentration changes in China are comparable with previous studies using fine-resolution regional models, though our model tends to overestimate PM2.5 from 2013 to 2017 when evaluated with surface observations. Relative to 2010, emission changes in China increased the global PM2.5-associated premature mortality burdens through 2013, among which a majority of the changes (∼ 93 %) occurred in China. The sharp emission decreases after 2013 generated significant benefits for human health. By 2017, emission changes in China reduced premature deaths associated with PM2.5 by 108 800 (92 800–124 800) deaths per year globally, relative to 2010, among which 92 % were realized in China. In contrast, the population-weighted, annually averaged maximum daily 8 h ozone concentration peaked in 2014 and did not reach 2010 levels by 2017. As such, O3 generated nearly 8500 (6500–9900) more premature deaths per year in 2017 compared to 2010. Downwind regions, such as South Korea, Japan, and the United States, generally experienced O3 improvements following 2013 due to the decreased export of ozone and its precursors. Overall, we conclude that the sharp emission reductions in China over the past decade have generated substantial benefits for air quality that have reduced premature deaths associated with air pollution at a global scale.

Description: Recent observational and modeling studies show that variations of stratospheric ozone and the resulting interaction between ozone and the stratospheric circulation play an important role in surface weather and climate. However, in many cases, computationally expensive coupled chemistry models have been used to study these effects. Here, we demonstrate how a much simpler idealized general circulation model (GCM) can be used for studying the impact of interactive stratospheric ozone on the circulation. The model, named Simplified Chemistry-Dynamical Model (SCDM V1.0), is constructed from a preexisting idealized GCM, into which a simplified linear ozone scheme and a parameterization for the shortwave radiative effects of ozone are implemented. The distribution and variability of stratospheric ozone simulated by the new model are in good agreement with the MERRA2 reanalysis, even for extreme circulation events such as Arctic stratospheric sudden warmings. The model thus represents a promising new tool for the study of ozone–circulation interaction in the stratosphere and its associated effects on tropospheric weather and climate.

Description: The importance of Antarctic sea ice and Southern Ocean warming has come into the focus of polar research during the last couple of decades. Especially around West Antarctica, where warm water masses approach the continent and where sea ice has declined, the distribution and evolution of sea ice play a critical role in the stability of nearby ice shelves. Organic geochemical analyses of marine seafloor surface sediments from the Antarctic continental margin allow an evaluation of the applicability of biomarker-based sea-ice and ocean temperature reconstructions in these climate-sensitive areas. We analysed highly branched isoprenoids (HBIs), such as the sea-ice proxy IPSO25 and phytoplankton-derived HBI-trienes, as well as phytosterols and isoprenoidal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), which are established tools for the assessment of primary productivity and ocean temperatures respectively. The combination of IPSO25 with a phytoplankton marker (i.e. the PIPSO25 index) permits semi-quantitative sea-ice reconstructions and avoids misleading over- or underestimations of sea-ice cover. Comparisons of the PIPSO25-based sea-ice distribution patterns and TEX86L- and RI-OH′-derived ocean temperatures with (1) sea-ice concentrations obtained from satellite observations and (2) instrument measurements of sea surface and subsurface temperatures corroborate the general capability of these proxies to determine oceanic key variables properly. This is further supported by model data. We also highlight specific aspects and limitations that need to be taken into account for the interpretation of such biomarker data and discuss the potential of IPSO25 as an indicator for the former occurrence of platelet ice and/or the export of ice-shelf water.

Description: The earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) in China have achieved great progress, with warning alerts being successfully delivered to the public in some regions. We examined the performance of the EEWS in China's Sichuan Province during the 2019 Changning earthquake. Although its technical effectiveness was tested with the first alert released 10 s after the earthquake, we found that a big gap existed between the EEWS's message and the public's response. We highlight the importance of EEWS alert effectiveness and public participation for long-term resiliency, such as delivering useful alert messages through appropriate communication channels and training people to understand and properly respond.

Description: The Arabian Sea (AS) hosts one of the most intense oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) in the world. Observations suggest a decline in O2 in the northern AS over the recent decades accompanied by an intensification of the suboxic conditions there. Over the same period, the local sea surface temperature has risen significantly, particularly over the Arabian Gulf (also known as Persian Gulf, hereafter the Gulf), while summer monsoon winds may have intensified. Here, we simulate the evolution of dissolved oxygen in the AS from 1982 through 2010 and explore its controlling factors, with a focus on changing atmospheric conditions. To this end, we use a set of eddy-resolving hindcast simulations forced with winds and heat and freshwater fluxes from an atmospheric reanalysis. We find a significant deoxygenation in the northern AS, with O2 inventories north of 20∘ N dropping by over 6 % per decade between 100 and 1000 m. These changes cause an expansion of the OMZ volume north of 20∘ N at a rate of 0.6 % per decade as well as an increase in the volume of suboxia and the rate of denitrification by 14 and 15 % per decade, respectively. We also show that strong interannual and decadal variability modulate dissolved oxygen in the northern AS, with most of the O2 decline taking place in the 1980s and 1990s. Using a set of sensitivity simulations we demonstrate that deoxygenation in the northern AS is essentially caused by reduced ventilation induced by the recent fast warming of the sea surface, including in the Gulf, with a contribution from concomitant summer monsoon wind intensification. This is because, on the one hand, surface warming enhances vertical stratification and increases Gulf water buoyancy, thus inhibiting vertical mixing and ventilation of the thermocline. On the other hand, summer monsoon wind intensification causes a rise in the thermocline depth in the northern AS that lowers O2 levels in the upper ocean. Our findings confirm that the AS OMZ is strongly sensitive to upper-ocean warming and concurrent changes in the Indian monsoon winds. Finally, our results also demonstrate that changes in the local climatic forcing play a key role in regional dissolved oxygen changes and hence need to be properly represented in global models to reduce uncertainties in future projections of deoxygenation.