ALBERT

Description: Influence of microphysical schemes on atmospheric water in the Weather Research and Forecasting model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4563-4601, 2013 Author(s): F. Cossu and K. Hocke This study examines how different microphysical parameterization schemes influence orographically-induced precipitation and the distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour for mid-latitude summer conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A high-resolution two-dimensional idealized simulation is used to assess the differences between the schemes in which a moist air flow is interacting with a bell-shaped 2 km high mountain. Periodic lateral boundary conditions are chosen to recirculate atmospheric water in the domain. It is found that the 13 selected microphysical schemes conserve the water in the model domain. The gain or loss of water is less than 0.81% over a simulation time interval of 61 days. The differences of the microphysical schemes in terms of the distributions of water vapour, hydrometeors and accumulated precipitation are presented and discussed. The Kessler scheme, the only scheme without ice-phase processes, shows final values of cloud liquid water 14 times greater than the other schemes. The differences among the other schemes are not as extreme, but still they differ up to 79% in water vapour, up to 10 times in hydrometeors and up to 64% in accumulated precipitation at the end of the simulation. The microphysical schemes also differ in the surface evaporation rate. The WRF single-moment 3-class scheme has the highest surface evaporation rate compensated by the highest precipitation rate. The different distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour of the microphysical schemes induce differences up to 49 W m −2 in the downwelling shortwave radiation and up to 33 W m −2 in the downwelling longwave radiation.

Description: Beyond multifractional Brownian motion: new stochastic models for geophysical modelling Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 643-655, 2013 Author(s): J. Lévy Véhel Multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) has proved to be a useful tool in various areas of geophysical modelling. Although a versatile model, mBm is of course not always an adequate one. We present in this work several other stochastic processes which could potentially be useful in geophysics. The first alternative type is that of self-regulating processes : these are models where the local regularity is a function of the amplitude, in contrast to mBm where it is tuned exogenously. We demonstrate the relevance of such models for digital elevation maps and for temperature records. We also briefly describe two other types of alternative processes, which are the counterparts of mBm and of self-regulating processes when the intensity of local jumps is considered in lieu of local regularity: multistable processes allow one to prescribe the local intensity of jumps in space/time, while this intensity is governed by the amplitude for self-stabilizing processes .

Description: Non-extensivity and long-range correlations in the earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift (Greece) Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 713-724, 2013 Author(s): G. Michas, F. Vallianatos, and P. Sammonds In the present work the statistical properties of the earthquake activity in a highly seismic region, the West Corinth rift (Central Greece), are being studied by means of generalized statistical physics. By using a dataset that covers the period 2001–2008, we investigate the earthquake energy distribution and the distribution of the time intervals (interevent times) between the successive events. As has been reported previously, these distributions exhibit complex statistical properties and fractality. By using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), a well-established method for detection of long-range correlations in non-stationary signals, it is shown that long-range correlations are also present in the earthquake activity. The existence of these properties motivates us to use non-extensive statistical physics (NESP) to investigate the statistical properties of the frequency-magnitude and the interevent time distributions, along with other well-known relations in seismology, such as the gamma distribution for interevent times. The results of the analysis indicate that the statistical properties of the earthquake activity can be successfully reproduced by means of NESP and that the earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift is correlated at all-time scales.

Description: The impact of initial spread calibration on the RELO ensemble and its application to Lagrangian dynamics Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 621-641, 2013 Author(s): M. Wei, G. Jacobs, C. Rowley, C. N. Barron, P. Hogan, P. Spence, O. M. Smedstad, P. Martin, P. Muscarella, and E. Coelho A number of real-time ocean model forecasts were carried out successfully at Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) to provide modeling support and numerical guidance to the CARTHE GLAD at-sea experiment during summer 2012. Two RELO ensembles and three single models using NCOM and HYCOM with different resolutions were carried out. A calibrated ensemble system with enhanced spread and reliability was developed to better support this experiment. The calibrated ensemble is found to outperform the un-calibrated ensemble in forecasting accuracy, skill, and reliability for all the variables and observation spaces evaluated. The metrics used in this paper include RMS error, anomaly correlation, PECA, Brier score, spread reliability, and Talagrand rank histogram. It is also found that even the un-calibrated ensemble outperforms the single forecast from the model with the same resolution. The advantages of the ensembles are further extended to the Lagrangian framework. In contrast to a single model forecast, the RELO ensemble provides not only the most likely Lagrangian trajectory for a particle in the ocean, but also an uncertainty estimate that directly reflects the complicated ocean dynamics, which is valuable for decision makers. The examples show that the calibrated ensemble with more reliability can capture trajectories in different, even opposite, directions, which would be missed by the un-calibrated ensemble. The ensembles are applied to compute the repelling and attracting Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs), and the uncertainties of the LCSs, which are hard to obtain from a single model forecast, are estimated. It is found that the spatial scales of the LCSs depend on the model resolution. The model with the highest resolution produces the finest, small-scale, LCS structures, while the model with lowest resolution generates only large-scale LCSs. The repelling and attracting LCSs are found to intersect at many locations and create complex mesoscale eddies. The fluid particles and drifters in the middle of these tangles are subject to attraction and repulsion simultaneously from these two kinds of LCSs. As a result, the movements of particles near the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) location are severely limited. This is also confirmed by the Lagrangian trajectories predicted by the ensembles.

Description: Multifractal properties of embedded convective structures in orographic precipitation: toward subgrid-scale predictability Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 605-620, 2013 Author(s): M. Nogueira, A. P. Barros, and P. M. A. Miranda Rain and cloud fields produced by fully nonlinear idealized cloud resolving numerical simulations of orographic convective precipitation display statistical multiscaling behavior, implying that multifractal diagnostics should provide a physically robust basis for the downscaling and sub-grid scale parameterizations of moist processes. Our results show that the horizontal scaling exponent function (and respective multiscaling parameters) of the simulated rainfall and cloud fields varies with atmospheric and terrain properties, particularly small-scale terrain spectra, atmospheric stability, and advective timescale. This implies that multifractal diagnostics of moist processes for these simulations are fundamentally transient, exhibiting complex nonlinear behavior depending on atmospheric conditions and terrain forcing at each location. A particularly robust behavior found here is the transition of the multifractal parameters between stable and unstable cases, which has a clear physical correspondence to the transition from stratiform to organized (banded and cellular) convective regime. This result is reinforced by a similar behavior in the horizontal spectral exponent. Finally, our results indicate that although nonlinearly coupled fields (such as rain and clouds) have different scaling exponent functions, there are robust relationships with physical underpinnings between the scaling parameters that can be explored for hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling.

Description: AnaWEGE: a weather generator based on analogues of atmospheric circulation Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4745-4774, 2013 Author(s): P. Yiou This paper presents a stochastic weather generator based on analogues of circulation (AnaWEGE). Analogues of circulation have been a promising paradigm to analyse climate variability and its extremes. The weather generator uses precomputed analogues of sea-level pressure over the North Atlantic. The stochastic rules of the generator constrain the continuity in time of the simulations. The generator then simulates spatially coherent time series of a climate variable, drawn from meteorological observations. The weather generator is tested for European temperatures, and for winter and summer seasons. The biases in temperature quantiles and autocorrelation are rather small compared to observed variability. The ability of simulating extremely hot summers and cold winters is also assessed.

Description: Methodological aspects of a pattern-scaling approach to produce global fields of monthly means of daily maximum and minimum temperature Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4833-4882, 2013 Author(s): S. Kremser, G. E. Bodeker, and J. Lewis A Climate Pattern-Scaling Model (CPSM) that simulates global patterns of climate change, for a prescribed emissions scenario, is described. A CPSM works by quantitatively establishing the statistical relationship between a climate variable at a specific location (e.g. daily maximum surface temperature, T max ) and one or more predictor time series (e.g. global mean surface temperature, T global ) – referred to as the "training" of the CPSM. This training uses a regression model to derive fit-coefficients that describe the statistical relationship between the predictor time series and the target climate variable time series. Once that relationship has been determined, and given the predictor time series for any greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, the change in the climate variable of interest can be reconstructed – referred to as the "application" of the CPSM. The advantage of using a CPSM rather than a typical atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) is that the predictor time series required by the CPSM can usually be generated quickly using a simple climate model (SCM) for any prescribed GHG emissions scenario and then applied to generate global fields of the climate variable of interest. The training can be performed either on historical measurements or on output from an AOGCM. Using model output from 21st century simulations has the advantage that the climate change signal is more pronounced than in historical data and therefore a more robust statistical relationship is obtained. The disadvantage of using AOGCM output is that the CPSM training might be compromised by any AOGCM inadequacies. For the purposes of exploring the various methodological aspects of the CPSM approach, AOGCM output was used in this study to train the CPSM. These investigations of the CPSM methodology focus on monthly mean fields of daily temperature extremes ( T max and T min ). Key conclusions are: (1) overall, the CPSM trained on simulations based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario is able to reproduce AOGCM simulations of T max and T min based on predictor time series from an RCP 4.5 emissions scenario; (2) access to hemisphere average land and ocean temperatures as predictors improves the variance that can be explained, particularly over the oceans; (3) regression model fit-coefficients derived from individual simulations based on the RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios agree well over most regions of the globe (the Arctic is the exception); (4) training the CPSM on concatenated time series from an ensemble of simulations does not result in fit-coefficients that explain significantly more of the variance than an approach that weights results based on single simulation fits; and (5) the inclusion of a linear time dependence in the regression model fit-coefficients improves the variance explained, primarily over the oceans.

Description: Modeling different freeze/thaw processes in heterogeneous landscapes of the Arctic polygonal tundra using an ecosystem model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4883-4932, 2013 Author(s): given_name prefix surname suffix, S. Yi, K. Wischnewski, M. Langer, S. Muster, and J. Boike Freeze/thaw (F/T) processes can be quite different under the various land surface types found in the heterogeneous polygonal tundra of the Arctic. Proper simulation of these different processes is essential for accurate prediction of the release of greenhouse gases under a warming climate scenario. In this study we have modified the dynamic organic soil version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (DOS-TEM) to simulate F/T processes beneath the polygon rims, polygon centers (with and without water), and lakes that are common features in Arctic lowland regions. We first verified the F/T algorithm in the DOS-TEM against analytical solutions, and then compared the results with in situ measurements from Samoylov Island, Siberia. In the final stage, we examined the different responses of the F/T processes for different water levels at the various land surface types. The simulations revealed that (1) the DOS-TEM was very efficient and its results compared very well with analytical solutions for idealized cases, (2) the simulations compared reasonably well with in situ measurements although there were a number of model limitations and uncertainties, (3) the DOS-TEM was able to successfully simulate the differences in F/T dynamics under different land surface types, and (4) permafrost beneath water bodies was found to respond highly sensitive to changes in water depths between 1 and 2 m. Our results indicate that water is very important in the thermal processes simulated by the DOS-TEM; the heterogeneous nature of the landscape and different water depths therefore need to be taken into account when simulating methane emission responses to a warming climate.

Description: A standard test case suite for two-dimensional linear transport on the sphere: results from a collection of state-of-the-art schemes Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4983-5076, 2013 Author(s): P. H. Lauritzen, P. A. Ullrich, C. Jablonowski, P. A. Bosler, D. Calhoun, A. J. Conley, T. Enomoto, L. Dong, S. Dubey, O. Guba, A. B. Hansen, E. Kaas, J. Kent, J.-F. Lamarque, M. J. Prather, D. Reinert, V. V. Shashkin, W. C. Skamarock, B. Sørensen, M. A. Taylor, and M. A. Tolstykh Recently, a standard test case suite for 2-D linear transport on the sphere was proposed to assess important aspects of accuracy in geophysical fluid dynamics with a "minimal" set of idealized model configurations/runs/diagnostics. Here we present results from 19 state-of-the-art transport scheme formulations based on finite-difference/finite-volume methods as well as emerging (in the context of atmospheric/oceanographic sciences) Galerkin methods. Discretization grids range from traditional regular latitude-longitude grids to more isotropic domain discretizations such as icosahedral and cubed-sphere tessellations of the sphere. The schemes are evaluated using a wide range of diagnostics in idealized flow environments. Accuracy is assessed in single- and two-tracer configurations using conventional error norms as well as novel diagnostics designed for climate and climate-chemistry applications. In addition, algorithmic considerations that may be important for computational efficiency are reported on. The latter is inevitably computing platform dependent, The ensemble of results from a wide variety of schemes presented here helps shed light on the ability of the test case suite diagnostics and flow settings to discriminate between algorithms and provide insights into accuracy in the context of global atmospheric/ocean modeling. A library of benchmark results is provided to facilitate scheme intercomparison and model development. Simple software and data-sets are made available to facilitate the process of model evaluation and scheme intercomparison.

Description: On the analytic approximation of bulk collision rates of non-spherical hydrometeors Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 5077-5116, 2013 Author(s): A. Seifert, U. Blahak, and R. Buhr Analytic approximations of the binary collision rates of hydrometeors are derived for use in bulk microphysical parameterizations. Special attention is given to non-spherical hydrometeors like raindrops and snowflakes. The terminal fall velocity of these particles cannot be sufficiently well approximated by power law relations which are used in most microphysical parameterizations and therefore an improved formulation is needed. The analytic approximations of the bulk collision rates given in this paper are an alternative to look-up tables and can replace the Wisner approximation which is used in many atmospheric models.

Description: A top-down model to generate ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 683-704, 2013 Author(s): P. R. Furey, V. K. Gupta, and B. M. Troutman We hypothesize that total hillslope water loss for a rainfall–runoff event is inversely related to a function of a lognormal random variable, based on basin- and point-scale observations taken from the 21 km 2 Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) in Mississippi, USA. A top-down approach is used to develop a new runoff generation model both to test our physical-statistical hypothesis and to provide a method of generating ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes in a basin. The model is based on the assumption that the probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio have a space–time rescaling property. We test this assumption using streamflow and rainfall data from GCEW. For over 100 rainfall–runoff events, we find that the spatial probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio can be rescaled to a new distribution that is common to all events. We interpret random within-event differences in runoff/loss ratios in the model to arise from soil moisture spatial variability. Observations of water loss during events in GCEW support this interpretation. Our model preserves water balance in a mean statistical sense and supports our hypothesis. As an example, we use the model to generate ensembles of runoff at a large number of hillslopes for a rainfall–runoff event in GCEW.

Description: A mechanism for catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation for sparse observation networks Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 705-712, 2013 Author(s): G. A. Gottwald and A. J. Majda We study catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation procedures whereby the forecast model develops severe numerical instabilities leading to a blow-up of the solution. Catastrophic filter divergence can occur in sparse observational grids with small observational noise for intermediate observation intervals and finite ensemble sizes. Using a minimal five-dimensional model, we establish that catastrophic filter divergence is a numerical instability of the underlying forecast model caused by the filtering procedure producing analyses which are not consistent with the true dynamics, and stiffness caused by the fast attraction of the inconsistent analyses towards the attractor during the forecast step.

Description: Ensemble initialization of the oceanic component of a coupled model through bred vectors at seasonal-to-interannual time scales Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 5189-5214, 2013 Author(s): J. Baehr and R. Piontek We evaluate the ensemble spread at seasonal-to-interannual time scales for two perturbation techniques implemented into the ocean component of a coupled model: (1) lagged initial conditions as commonly used for decadal predictions, (2) bred vectors as commonly used for weather and seasonal forecasting. We show that relative to an uninitialized reference simulation the implementation for bred vectors can improve the ensemble spread compared to lagged initialization at time scales from one months up to three years. As bred vectors have so far mostly been used at short time scales, we initially focus on the implementation of the bred vectors into the ocean component. We introduce a depth-dependent vertical rescaling norm, accounting for the vertical dependence of the variability, and extending the commonly used upper-ocean rescaling norm to the full water column. We further show that it is sufficient for the (sub-surface) ocean to breed temperature and salinity (i.e., scalar quantities), and rely on the governing physics to carry the temperature and salinity perturbations to the flow field. Using these bred vectors with a rescaling interval of 12 months, we initialize hindcast simulations and compare them to hindcast simulations initialized with lagged initial conditions. We quantify the ensemble spread by analyzing Talagrand diagrams and spread-error ratios. For both temperature and salinity, the lagged initialized ensemble is particularly under-dispersive for the first few months of predictable lead time. The ensemble initialized with bred vectors improves the spread for temperature and salinity for the 0–700 m and 1000–3500 m means, compared to the lagged ensemble at lead times of several months to one year. As the lead time increases to years, the differences between the two ensemble initialization techniques becomes more difficult to discern. While the results need to be confirmed in an initialized framework, the present analysis represents a first step towards an improved ensemble generation at the transition from seasonal-to-interannual time scales, in particular at lead times up to one year.

Description: Understanding the performance of the FLake model over the African Great Lakes Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 5141-5187, 2013 Author(s): W. Thiery, A. Martynov, F. Darchambeau, J.-P. Descy, P.-D. Plisnier, L. Sushama, and N. P. M. van Lipzig The ability of the one-dimensional lake model FLake to represent the mixolimnion temperatures for tropical conditions was tested for three locations in East Africa: Lake Kivu, Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding Automatic Weather Stations were corrected and used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles served to evaluate the model at each site. Careful forcing data correction and model configuration allowed to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and temperature structure. At Lake Kivu, mixolimnion temperatures predicted by FLake were found sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters (lake depth and water transparency) as to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may already lead to a regime switch from the correctly represented seasonal mixed layer deepening to either completely mixed (down to the model lake bottom) or permanently stratified (from ~10 m downwards) conditions. In contrast, model temperatures are found robust close to the surface, with acceptable predictions of near-surface water temperatures even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. FLake can thus be a suitable tool to parameterize tropical lake water surface temperatures within atmospheric prediction models, but may be less appropriate, in its current form, to study complex limnological processes within tropical lakes. Furthermore, a study of different initial conditions showed that for tropical lakes lacking reliable initial data, a fully mixed, artificially warm initialisation is to be preferred, but only if the model is allowed to spin up until convergence is reached. Finally, FLake was used to attribute the seasonal mixing cycle at Lake Kivu to variations in the near-surface meteorological conditions. It was found that the annual mixing down to 60 m during the main dry season is primarily due to enhanced lake evaporation and secondarily due to the decreased incoming long wave radiation, both causing a significant heat loss from the lake surface and associated mixolimnion cooling.

Description: Sub-inertial modulation of nonlinear Kelvin waves in the coastal zone Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 357-364, 2013 Author(s): D. V. Stepanov and V. V. Novotryasov Observational evidence is presented for interaction between nonlinear internal Kelvin waves at the ω t,i (where the ω t is the semidiurnal frequency and the ω i is the inertial frequency) and random oscillations of the background coastal current at the sub-inertial Ω frequency in the Japan/East Sea. Enhanced coastal currents at the sum ω + and difference ω-frequencies ω ± =ω t,i ± Ω have properties of propagating Kelvin waves, which suggests permanent energy exchange from the sub-inertial band to the mesoscale ω ± band. This interaction may be responsible for a greater-than-predicted intensification, steepening and breaking of boundary-trapped Kelvin waves. The problem of interaction between the nonlinear Kelvin wave at the frequency ω and the low-frequency narrowband noise with representative frequency Ω≪ω is investigated using the theory of nonlinear weak dispersion waves.

Description: Application of wavelet transform for evaluation of hydrocarbon reservoirs: example from Iranian oil fields in the north of the Persian Gulf Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 231-238, 2013 Author(s): M. R. Saadatinejad and H. Hassani The Persian Gulf and its surrounding area are some of the biggest basins and have a very important role in producing huge amounts of hydrocarbon, and this potential was evaluated in order to explore the target for geoscientists and petroleum engineers. Wavelet transform is a useful and applicable technique to reveal frequency contents of various signals in different branches of science and especially in petroleum studies. We applied two major capacities of continuous mode of wavelet transform in seismic investigations. These investigations were operated to detect reservoir geological structures and some anomalies related to hydrocarbon to develop and explore new petroleum reservoirs in at least 4 oilfields in the southwest of Iran. It had been observed that continuous wavelet transform results show some discontinuities in the location of faults and are able to display them more clearly than other seismic methods. Moreover, continuous wavelet transform, utilizing Morlet wavelet, displays low-frequency shadows on 4 different iso-frequency vertical sections to identify reservoirs containing gas. By comparing these different figures, the presence of low-frequency shadows under the reservoir could be seen and we can relate these variations from anomalies at different frequencies as an indicator of the presence of hydrocarbons in the target reservoir.

Description: The mid-Pliocene climate simulated by FGOALS-g2 Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 2403-2428, 2013 Author(s): W. Zheng, Z. Zhang, L. Chen, and Y. Yu Within the framework of Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), the mid-Pliocene (3.264–3.025 Ma) climate simulated by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model grid-point version 2 (FGOALS-g2) are analyzed in this study. Results show that the model reproduces the large-scale features of the global warming over the land and ocean. The simulated mid-Pliocene global annual mean surface air temperature (TAS) and sea surface temperature (SST) are 4.17 and 2.62°C warmer than the pre-Industrial simulation, respectively. In particular, the feature of larger warming over mid-high latitudes is well captured. In the simulated warm mid-Pliocene climate, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) become weaker.

Description: The potential of an observational data set for calibration of a computationally expensive computer model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 2369-2401, 2013 Author(s): D. J. McNeall, P. G. Challenor, J. R. Gattiker, and E. J. Stone We measure the potential of an observational data set to constrain a set of inputs to a complex and computationally expensive computer model. We use each member in turn of an ensemble of output from a computationally expensive model, corresponding to some observable part of a modelled system, as a proxy for an observational data set. We argue that our ability to constrain uncertain parameter inputs to a model using its own output as data, provides a maximum bound for our ability to constrain the model inputs using observations of the real system. The ensemble provides a set of known parameter input and model output pairs, which we use to build a computationally efficient statistical proxy for the full computer model, termed an emulator. We use the emulator to find and rule out ''implausible" values for the inputs of held-out ensemble members, given the computer model output. As we know the true values of the inputs for the ensemble, we can compare our constraint of the model inputs with the true value of the input for any ensemble member. Measures of the quality of constraint have the potential to inform strategy for data collection campaigns, before any real-world data is collected, as well as acting as an effective sensitivity analysis. We use an ensemble of the ice sheet model Glimmer to demonstrate our measures of quality of constraint. The ensemble has 250 model runs with 5 uncertain input parameters, and an output variable representing the pattern of the thickness of ice over Greenland. We have an observation of historical ice sheet thickness that directly matches the output variable, and offers an opportunity to constrain the model. We show that different ways of summarising our output variable (ice volume, ice surface area and maximum ice thickness) offer different potential constraints on individual input parameters. We show that combining the observational data gives increased power to constrain the model. We investigate the impact of uncertainty in observations or in model biases on our measures, showing that even a modest uncertainty can seriously degrade the potential of the observational data to constrain the model.

Description: On searching for optimized set of physical parameterization schemes in a multi-physics land surface process model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4511-4530, 2013 Author(s): S. Hong, X. Yu, S. K. Park, Y.-S. Choi, and B. Myoung Optimization of land surface models has been very challenging due to the increasing complexity of such models. Typical parameter calibration techniques often limit the solution of the spatiotemporal discrepancy in the modeling performance levels especially for regional applications. Thus, in this study, an attempt was made to perform scheme-based model optimization by designing a framework for coupling a micro-genetic algorithm (micro-GA) with the Noah land surface model that has multiple physics options (Noah-MP). Micro-GA controls the scheme selections in 10 different land surface parameterization fields in Noah-MP in order to extract the optimal scheme combination for a certain region. This coupling framework was successfully applied to the optimization of the surface water partitioning in the Korean Peninsula, promising not only the effectiveness of the scheme-based optimization but also model diagnosis capability by exploring the scheme sensitivity during the micro-GA evolution process. Then, the method was applied to four different regions in East Asia that have different climatic characteristics. The results indicate that (1) the optimal scheme combinations vary with the regions, (2) schemes related to the surface water partitioning are important for the modeling accuracy, and (3) specialized post-parameter optimization for each region may be required.

Description: Atmospheric inverse modeling with known physical bounds: an example from trace gas emissions Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4531-4562, 2013 Author(s): S. M. Miller, A. M. Michalak, and P. J. Levi Many inverse problems in the atmospheric sciences involve parameters with known physical constraints. Examples include non-negativity (e.g., emissions of some urban air pollutants) or upward limits implied by reaction or solubility constants. However, probabilistic inverse modeling approaches based on Gaussian assumptions cannot incorporate such bounds and thus often produce unrealistic results. The atmospheric literature lacks consensus on the best means to overcome this problem, and existing atmospheric studies rely on a limited number of the possible methods with little examination of the relative merits of each. This paper investigates the applicability of several approaches to bounded inverse problems and is also the first application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to estimation of atmospheric trace gas fluxes. The approaches discussed here are broadly applicable. A common method of data transformations is found to unrealistically skew estimates for the examined example application. The method of Lagrange multipliers and two MCMC methods yield more realistic and accurate results. In general, the examined MCMC approaches produce the most realistic result but can require substantial computational time. Lagrange multipliers offer an appealing alternative for large, computationally intensive problems when exact uncertainty bounds are less central to the analysis. A synthetic data inversion of US anthropogenic methane emissions illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of each approach.

Description: A database and tool for boundary conditions for regional air quality modeling: description and evaluation Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4665-4704, 2013 Author(s): B. H. Henderson, F. Akhtar, H. O. T. Pye, S. L. Napelenok, and W. T. Hutzell Transported air pollutants receive increasing attention as regulations tighten and global concentrations increase. The need to represent international transport in regional air quality assessments requires improved representation of boundary concentrations. Currently available observations are too sparse vertically to provide boundary information, particularly for ozone precursors, but global simulations can be used to generate spatially and temporally varying Lateral Boundary Conditions (LBC). This study presents a public database of global simulations designed and evaluated for use as LBC for air quality models (AQMs). The database covers the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the years 2000–2010 and contains hourly varying concentrations of ozone, aerosols, and their precursors. The database is complimented by a tool for configuring the global results as inputs to regional scale models (e.g., Community Multiscale Air Quality or Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions). This study also presents an example application based on the CONUS domain, which is evaluated against satellite retrieved ozone vertical profiles. The results show performance is largely within uncertainty estimates for the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) with some exceptions. The major difference shows a high bias in the upper troposphere along the southern boundary in January. This publication documents the global simulation database, the tool for conversion to LBC, and the fidelity of concentrations on the boundaries. This documentation is intended to support applications that require representation of long-range transport of air pollutants.

Description: Effects of vegetation structure on biomass accumulation in a Balanced Optimality Structure Vegetation Model (BOSVM v1.0) Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4603-4663, 2013 Author(s): Z. Yin, S. C. Dekker, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, and H. A. Dijkstra A myriad of interactions exist between vegetation and local climate for arid and semi-arid regions. Vegetation function, structure and individual behavior have large impacts on carbon-water-energy balances, which consequently influence local climate variability that, in turn, feeds back to the vegetation. In this study, a conceptual vegetation structure scheme is formulated and tested in a new carbon-water-energy coupled model to explore the importance of vegetation structure and vegetation adaptation to water stress on equilibrium biomass states. Surface energy, water and carbon fluxes are simulated for a range of vegetation structures across a precipitation gradient in West Africa and optimal vegetation structures that maximizes biomass for each precipitation regime are determined. Two different strategies of vegetation adaptation to water stress are included. Under dry conditions vegetation tries to maximize the Water Use Efficiency and Leaf Area Index as it tries to maximize carbon gain. However, an important negative feedback mechanism is found as the vegetation also tries to minimize its cover to optimize the surrounding bare ground area from which water can be extracted, thereby forming patches of vertical vegetation. Under larger precipitation, a positive feedback mechanism is found in which vegetation tries to maximize its cover as it then can reduce water loss from bare soil while having maximum carbon gain due to a large Leaf Area Index. The competition between vegetation and bare soil determines a transition between a "survival" state to a "growing" state.

Description: A distributed computing approach to improve the performance of the Parallel Ocean Program (v2.1) Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4705-4744, 2013 Author(s): B. van Werkhoven, J. Maassen, M. Kliphuis, H. A. Dijkstra, S. E. Brunnabend, M. van Meersbergen, F. J. Seinstra, and H. E. Bal The Parallel Ocean Program (POP) is used in many strongly eddying ocean circulation simulations. Ideally one would like to do thousand-year long simulations, but the current performance of POP prohibits this type of simulations. In this work, using a new distributed computing approach, two innovations to improve the performance of POP are presented. The first is a new block partitioning scheme for the optimization of the load balancing of POP such that it can be run efficiently in a multi-platform setting. The second is an implementation of part of the POP model code on Graphics Processing Units. We show that the combination of both innovations leads to a substantial performance increase also when running POP simultaneously over multiple computational platforms.

Description: Inherently mass-conservative version of the semi-Lagrangian Absolute Vorticity (SL-AV) atmospheric model dynamical core Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4809-4832, 2013 Author(s): V. V. Shashkin and M. A. Tolstykh The semi-Lagrangian Absolute Vorticity (SL-AV) atmospheric model is the global semi-Lagrangian hydrostatic model used for operational medium-range and seasonal forecasts at Hydrometeorological centre of Russia. The distinct feature of SL-AV dynamical core is the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian vorticity-divergence formulation on the unstaggered grid. Semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian approach allows for long time steps while violates the global and local mass-conservation. In particular, the total mass in simulations with semi-Lagrangian models can drift significantly if no aposteriori mass-fixing algorithms are applied. However, the global mass-fixing algorithms degrade the local mass conservation. The inherently mass-conservative version of SL-AV model dynamical core presented in the article ensures global and local mass conservation without mass-fixing algorithms. The mass conservation is achieved with the introduction of the finite-volume semi-Lagrangian discretization for continuity equation based on the 3-D extension of the conservative cascade semi-Lagrangian transport scheme (CCS). The numerical experiments show that the presented new version of SL-AV dynamical core combines the accuracy and stability of the standard SL-AV dynamical core with the mass-conservation properties. The results of the mountain induced Rossby wave test and baroclinic instability test for mass-conservative dynamical core are found to be in agreement with the results available in literature.

Description: A fast input/output library for high resolution climate models Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4775-4807, 2013 Author(s): X. Huang, W. Wang, H. Fu, G. Yang, B. Wang, and C. Zhang We describe the design and implementation of Climate Fast Input/Output (CFIO), a fast input/output (I/O) library for high resolution climate models. CFIO provides a simple method for modelers to overlap the I/O phase with the computing phase automatically, so as to shorten the running time of numerical simulations. To minimize the code modifications required for porting, CFIO provides similar interfaces and features to Parallel network Common Data Form (PnetCDF), which is one of the most widely used I/O libraries in climate models. We deployed CFIO in three high resolution climate models, including two ocean models (POP and LICOM) and one sea ice model (CICE). The experimental results show that CFIO improves the performance of climate models significantly versus the original serial I/O approach. When running with CFIO at 0.1° resolution with about 1000 CPU cores, we managed to reduce the running time by factors of 7.9, 4.6 and 2.0 for POP, CICE, and LICOM respectively. We also compared the performance of CFIO against PnetCDF in different scenarios. For scenarios with both data output operations and computations, CFIO decreases the I/O overhead by a factor of 5.1 compared to PnetCDF.

Description: Application and evaluation of McICA scheme with new radiation code in BCC_AGCM2.0.1 Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4933-4982, 2013 Author(s): given_name prefix surname suffix, H. Zhang, X. Jing, and J. Li This research incorporates the Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation (McICA) scheme with the correlated k-distribution BCC-RAD radiation model into the climate model BCC_AGCM2.0.1 and examines the impacts on modeled climate through several simulations with variations in cloud structures. Results from experiments with consistent sub-grid cloud structures show that both clear-sky radiation fluxes and cloud radiative forcings (CRFs) calculated by the new scheme are mostly improved relative to those calculated from the original one. The modeled atmospheric temperature and specific humidity are also improved due to changes in the radiative heating rates. The vertical overlap of fractional clouds and horizontal distribution of cloud condensation are important for computing CRFs. The maximum changes in seasonal CRF using the general overlap assumption (GenO) with different decorrelation depths ( L cf ) are larger than 10 and 20 Wm 2 for longwave (LW) CRF and shortwave (SW) CRF, respectively, mostly located in the Tropics and mid-latitude storm tracks. Larger (smaller) L cf in the Tropics (mid-latitude storm tracks) yield better cloud fraction and CRF compared with observations. The inclusion of an observation-based horizontal inhomogeneity of cloud condensation has a distinct impact on LW CRF and SW CRF, with global means of ∼1.2 Wm −2 and ∼3.7 Wm −2 at the top of atmosphere, respectively, making these much closer to observations. These results prove the reliability of the new model configuration to be used in BCC_AGCM2.0.1 for climate simulations, and also indicate that more detailed real-world information on cloud structures should be obtained to constrain cloud settings in McICA in the future.

Description: Distributed allocation of mobile sensing swarms in gyre flows Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 657-668, 2013 Author(s): K. Mallory, M. A. Hsieh, E. Forgoston, and I. B. Schwartz We address the synthesis of distributed control policies to enable a swarm of homogeneous mobile sensors to maintain a desired spatial distribution in a geophysical flow environment, or workspace. In this article, we assume the mobile sensors (or robots) have a "map" of the environment denoting the locations of the Lagrangian coherent structures or LCS boundaries. Using this information, we design agent-level hybrid control policies that leverage the surrounding fluid dynamics and inherent environmental noise to enable the team to maintain a desired distribution in the workspace. We discuss the stability properties of the ensemble dynamics of the distributed control policies. Since realistic quasi-geostrophic ocean models predict double-gyre flow solutions, we use a wind-driven multi-gyre flow model to verify the feasibility of the proposed distributed control strategy and compare the proposed control strategy with a baseline deterministic allocation strategy. Lastly, we validate the control strategy using actual flow data obtained by our coherent structure experimental testbed.

Description: Four-dimensional ensemble-variational data assimilation for global deterministic weather prediction Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 669-682, 2013 Author(s): M. Buehner, J. Morneau, and C. Charette The goal of this study is to evaluate a version of the ensemble-variational data assimilation approach (EnVar) for possible replacement of 4D-Var at Environment Canada for global deterministic weather prediction. This implementation of EnVar relies on 4-D ensemble covariances, obtained from an ensemble Kalman filter, that are combined in a vertically dependent weighted average with simple static covariances. Verification results are presented from a set of data assimilation experiments over two separate 6-week periods that used assimilated observations and model configuration very similar to the currently operational system. To help interpret the comparison of EnVar versus 4D-Var, additional experiments using 3D-Var and a version of EnVar with only 3-D ensemble covariances are also evaluated. To improve the rate of convergence for all approaches evaluated (including EnVar), an estimate of the cost function Hessian generated by the quasi-Newton minimization algorithm is cycled from one analysis to the next. Analyses from EnVar (with 4-D ensemble covariances) nearly always produce improved, and never degraded, forecasts when compared with 3D-Var. Comparisons with 4D-Var show that forecasts from EnVar analyses have either similar or better scores in the troposphere of the tropics and the winter extra-tropical region. However, in the summer extra-tropical region the medium-range forecasts from EnVar have either similar or worse scores than 4D-Var in the troposphere. In contrast, the 6 h forecasts from EnVar are significantly better than 4D-Var relative to radiosonde observations for both periods and in all regions. The use of 4-D versus 3-D ensemble covariances only results in small improvements in forecast quality. By contrast, the improvements from using 4D-Var versus 3D-Var are much larger. Measurement of the fit of the background and analyzed states to the observations suggests that EnVar and 4D-Var can both make better use of observations distributed over time than 3D-Var. In summary, the results from this study suggest that the EnVar approach is a viable alternative to 4D-Var, especially when the simplicity and computational efficiency of EnVar are considered. Additional research is required to understand the seasonal dependence of the difference in forecast quality between EnVar and 4D-Var in the extra-tropics.

Description: A regional climate modelling projection ensemble experiment – NARCliM Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 5117-5139, 2013 Author(s): J. P. Evans, F. Ji, C. Lee, P. Smith, D. Argüeso, and L. Fita Including the impacts of climate change in decision making and planning processes is a challenge facing many regional governments including the New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) governments in Australia. NARCliM (NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling project) is a regional climate modelling project that aims to provide a comprehensive and consistent set of climate projections that can be used by all relevant government departments when considering climate change. To maximise end user engagement and ensure outputs are relevant to the planning process, a series of stakeholder workshops were run to define key aspects of the model experiment including spatial resolution, time slices, and output variables. As with all such experiments, practical considerations limit the number of ensembles members that can be simulated such that choices must be made concerning which Global Climate Models (GCMs) to downscale from, and which Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to downscale with. Here a methodology for making these choices is proposed that aims to sample the uncertainty in both GCMs and RCMs, as well as spanning the range of future climate projections present in the full GCM ensemble. The created ensemble provides a more robust view of future regional climate changes.

Description: Efficient performance of the Met Office Unified Model v8.2 on Intel Xeon partially used nodes Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 7, 7395-7425, 2014 Author(s): I. Bermous The atmospheric Unified Model (UM) developed at the UK Met Office is used for weather and climate prediction by forecast teams at a number of international meteorological centres and research institutes on a wide variety of hardware and software environments. Over its 25 year history the UM sources have been optimised for a better application performance on a number of HPC systems including NEC SX vector architecture systems and recently the IBM Power6/Power7 platforms. Understanding the influence of the compiler flags, MPI libraries and run configurations is crucial to achieving the shortest elapsed times for a UM application on any particular HPC system. These aspects are very important for applications that must run within operational time frames. Driving the current study is the HPC industry trend since 1980 for processor arithmetic performance to increase at a faster rate than memory bandwidth. This gap has been growing especially fast for multicore processors in the past 10 years and it can have significant implication for the performance and performance scaling of memory bandwidth intensive applications, such as the UM. Analysis of partially used nodes on Intel Xeon clusters is provided in this paper for short and medium range weather forecasting systems using global and limited-area configurations. It is shown that on the Intel Xeon based clusters the fastest elapsed times and the most efficient system usage can be achieved using partially committed nodes.

Description: Simulation of groundwater and surface water over the continental US using a hyperresolution, integrated hydrologic model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 7, 7317-7349, 2014 Author(s): R. M. Maxwell, L. E. Condon, and S. J. Kollet Interactions between surface and groundwater systems are well-established theoretically and observationally. While numerical models that solve both surface and subsurface flow equations in a single framework (matrix) are increasingly being applied, computational limitations have restricted their use to local and regional studies. Regional or watershed, scale simulations have been effective tools in understanding hydrologic processes, however there are still many questions, such as the adaptation of water resources to anthropogenic stressors and climate variability, that need to be answered across large spatial extents at high resolution. In response to this "grand challenge" in hydrology, we present the results of a parallel, integrated hydrologic model simulating surface and subsurface flow at high spatial resolution (1 km) over much of continental North America (~ 6 300 000 or 6.3 million km 2 ). These simulations provide predictions of hydrologic states and fluxes, namely water table depth and streamflow, at unprecedented scale and resolution. The physically-based modeling approach used here requires limited parameterizations and relies only on more fundamental inputs, such as topography, hydrogeologic properties and climate forcing. Results are compared to observations and provide mechanistic insight into hydrologic process interaction. This study demonstrates both the feasibility of continental scale integrated models and their utility for improving our understanding of large-scale hydrologic systems; the combination of high resolution and large spatial extent facilitates novel analysis of scaling relationships using model outputs.

Description: EDDA: integrated simulation of debris flow erosion, deposition and property changes Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 7, 7267-7316, 2014 Author(s): H. X. Chen and L. M. Zhang Debris flow material properties change during the initiation, transportation and deposition processes, which influences the runout characteristics of the debris flow. A quasi-three-dimensional depth-integrated numerical model, EDDA, is presented in this paper to simulate debris flow erosion, deposition and induced material property changes. The model considers changes in debris flow density, yield stress and dynamic viscosity during the flow process. The yield stress of debris flow mixture is determined at limit equilibrium using the Mohr–Coulomb equation, which is applicable to clear water flow, hyper-concentrated flow and fully developed debris flow. To assure numerical stability and computational efficiency at the same time, a variable time stepping algorithm is developed to solve the governing differential equations. Four numerical tests are conducted to validate the model. The first two tests involve a one-dimensional dam-break water flow and a one-dimensional debris flow with constant properties. The last two tests involve erosion and deposition, and the movement of multi-directional debris flows. The changes in debris flow mass and properties due to either erosion or deposition are shown to affect the runout characteristics significantly. The model is also applied to simulate a large-scale debris flow in Xiaojiagou Ravine to test the performance of the model in catchment-scale simulations. The results suggest that the model estimates well the volume, inundated area, and runout distance of the debris flow. The model is intended for use as a module in a real-time debris flow warning system.

Description: Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 7, 8975-9015, 2014 Author(s): E. M. Knudsen and J. E. Walsh Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high- and midlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) coupled global climate model. The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a global climate model of the same vintage as NorESM1-M, provide benchmarks for comparison. The focus is on the autumn and early winter (September through December), the period when the ongoing and projected Arctic sea ice retreat is greatest. Storm tracks derived from a vorticity-based algorithm for storm identification are reproduced well by NorESM1-M, although the tracks are somewhat better resolved in the higher-resolution ERA-Interim and CCSM4. The tracks are projected to shift polewards in the future as climate changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios. Cyclones are projected to become generally more intense in the high-latitudes, especially over the Alaskan region, although in some other areas the intensity is projected to decrease. While projected changes in track density are less coherent, there is a general tendency towards less frequent storms in midlatitudes and more frequent storms in high-latitudes, especially the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase significantly across the entire high-latitudes. Together with the projected increases in storm intensity and sea level and the loss of sea ice, this increase in precipitation implies a greater vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion, especially in the Alaskan region. The projected changes in storm intensity and precipitation (as well as sea ice and sea level pressure) scale generally linearly with the RCP value of the forcing and with time through the 21st century.

Description: Corrigendum to "Breeding and predictability in the baroclinic rotating annulus using a perfect model" published in Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 15, 469–487, 2008 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 359-359, 2011 Author(s): R. M. B. Young and P. L. Read No abstract available.

Description: Strategies for coupling global and limited-area ensemble Kalman filter assimilation Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 415-430, 2011 Author(s): D. Merkova, I. Szunyogh, and E. Ott This paper compares the forecast performance of four strategies for coupling global and limited area data assimilation: three strategies propagate information from the global to the limited area process, while the fourth strategy feeds back information from the limited area to the global process. All four strategies are formulated in the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) framework. Numerical experiments are carried out with the model component of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM). The limited area domain is an extended North-America region that includes part of the north-east Pacific. The GFS is integrated at horizontal resolution T62 (about 150 km in the mid-latitudes), while the RSM is integrated at horizontal resolution 48 km. Experiments are carried out both under the perfect model hypothesis and in a realistic setting. The coupling strategies are evaluated by comparing their deterministic forecast performance at 12-h and 48-h lead times. The results suggest that the limited area data assimilation system has the potential to enhance the forecasts at 12-h lead time in the limited area domain at the synoptic and sub-synoptic scales (in the global wave number range of about 10 to 40). There is a clear indication that between the forecast performance of the different coupling strategies those that cycle the limited area assimilation process produce the most accurate forecasts. In the realistic setting, at 12-h forecast time the limited area systems produce more modest improvements compared to the global system than under the perfect model hypothesis, and at 48-h forecast time the global forecasts are more accurate than the limited area forecasts.

Description: Spectral methods for internal waves: indistinguishable density profiles and double-humped solitary waves Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 351-358, 2011 Author(s): M. Dunphy, C. Subich, and M. Stastna Internal solitary waves are widely observed in both the oceans and large lakes. They can be described by a variety of mathematical theories, covering the full spectrum from first order asymptotic theory (i.e. Korteweg-de Vries, or KdV, theory), through higher order extensions of weakly nonlinear-weakly nonhydrostatic theory, to fully nonlinear-weakly nonhydrostatic theories and finally exact theory based on the Dubreil-Jacotin-Long (DJL) equation that is formally equivalent to the full set of Euler equations. We discuss how spectral and pseudospectral methods allow for the computation of novel phenomena in both approximate and exact theories. In particular we construct markedly different density profiles for which the coefficients in the KdV theory are very nearly identical. These two density profiles yield qualitatively different behaviour for both exact, or fully nonlinear, waves computed using the DJL equation and in dynamic simulations of the time dependent Euler equations. For exact, DJL, theory we compute exact solitary waves with two-scales, or so-called double-humped waves.

Description: A nonlinear method of removing harmonic noise in geophysical data Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 367-379, 2011 Author(s): Y. Jeng and C.-S. Chen A nonlinear, adaptive method to remove the harmonic noise that commonly resides in geophysical data is proposed in this study. This filtering method is based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition algorithm in conjunction with the logarithmic transform. We present a synthetic model study to investigate the capability of signal reconstruction from the decomposed data, and compare the results with those derived from other 2-D adaptive filters. Applications to the real seismic data acquired by using an ocean bottom seismograph and to a shot gather of the ground penetrating radar demonstrate the robustness of this method. Our work proposes a concept that instead of Fourier-based approaches, the harmonic noise removal in geophysical data can be achieved effectively by using an alternative nonlinear adaptive data analysis method, which has been applied extensively in other scientific studies.

Description: The 1-way on-line coupled atmospheric chemistry model system MECO(n) – Part 1: The limited-area atmospheric chemistry model COSMO/MESSy Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1305-1358, 2011 Author(s): A. Kerkweg and P. Jöckel The numerical weather prediction model of the Consortium for Small Scale Modelling (COSMO), maintained by the German weather service (DWD), is connected with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy). This effort is undertaken in preparation of a~new, limited-area atmospheric chemistry model. This model is as consistent as possible, with respect to atmospheric chemistry and related processes, with a previously developed global atmospheric chemistry general circulation model: the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The combined system constitutes a new research tool, bridging the global to the meso-γ scale for atmospheric chemistry research. MESSy provides the infrastructure and includes, among others, the process and diagnostic submodels for atmospheric chemistry simulations. Furthermore, MESSy is highly flexible allowing model setups with tailor made complexity, depending on the scientific question. Here, the connection of the MESSy infrastructure to the COSMO model is documented. Previously published prototype submodels for simplified tracer studies are generalised to be plugged-in and used in the global and the limited-area model. They are used to evaluate the tracer transport characteristics of the new COSMO/MESSy model system, an important prerequisite for future atmospheric chemistry applications. A supplementary document with further details on the technical implementation of the MESSy interface into COSMO with a complete list of modifications to the COSMO code is provided.

Description: Comparison of correlation analysis techniques for irregularly sampled time series Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 389-404, 2011 Author(s): K. Rehfeld, N. Marwan, J. Heitzig, and J. Kurths Geoscientific measurements often provide time series with irregular time sampling, requiring either data reconstruction (interpolation) or sophisticated methods to handle irregular sampling. We compare the linear interpolation technique and different approaches for analyzing the correlation functions and persistence of irregularly sampled time series, as Lomb-Scargle Fourier transformation and kernel-based methods. In a thorough benchmark test we investigate the performance of these techniques. All methods have comparable root mean square errors (RMSEs) for low skewness of the inter-observation time distribution. For high skewness, very irregular data, interpolation bias and RMSE increase strongly. We find a 40 % lower RMSE for the lag-1 autocorrelation function (ACF) for the Gaussian kernel method vs. the linear interpolation scheme,in the analysis of highly irregular time series. For the cross correlation function (CCF) the RMSE is then lower by 60 %. The application of the Lomb-Scargle technique gave results comparable to the kernel methods for the univariate, but poorer results in the bivariate case. Especially the high-frequency components of the signal, where classical methods show a strong bias in ACF and CCF magnitude, are preserved when using the kernel methods. We illustrate the performances of interpolation vs. Gaussian kernel method by applying both to paleo-data from four locations, reflecting late Holocene Asian monsoon variability as derived from speleothem δ 18 O measurements. Cross correlation results are similar for both methods, which we attribute to the long time scales of the common variability. The persistence time (memory) is strongly overestimated when using the standard, interpolation-based, approach. Hence, the Gaussian kernel is a reliable and more robust estimator with significant advantages compared to other techniques and suitable for large scale application to paleo-data.

Description: Carbon monoxide as a tracer for tropical troposphere to stratosphere transport in the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1185-1211, 2011 Author(s): R. Pommrich, R. Müller, J.-U. Grooß, P. Konopka, G. Günther, H.-C. Pumphrey, S. Viciani, F. D'Amato, and M. Riese Variations in the mixing ratio of trace gases of tropospheric origin entering the stratosphere in the tropics are of interest for assessing both troposphere to stratosphere transport fluxes in the tropics and the impact on the composition of the tropical lower stratosphere of quasi-horizontal in-mixing into the tropical tropopause layer from the mid-latitude stratosphere. Here, we present a simplified chemistry scheme for the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the simulation, at comparatively low numerical cost, of CO, ozone, and long-lived trace substances (CH 4 , N 2 O, CCl 3 F, and CO 2 ) in the lower tropical stratosphere. The boundary conditions at the ground are represented for the long-lived trace substances CH 4 , N 2 O, CCl 3 F, and CO 2 based on ground-based measurements. The boundary condition for CO in the free troposphere is deduced from MOPITT measurements. We find that the zonally averaged tropical CO anomaly patterns simulated by this model version of CLaMS are in good agreement with observations. The introduction of a new scheme in the ECMWF integrated forecast system (Tompkins et al., 2007) for the ice supersaturation after September 2006, results in a somewhat less good agreement between observed and simulated CO patterns in the tropical lower stratosphere after this date.

Description: Brief communication "On one mechanism of low frequency variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current" Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 361-365, 2011 Author(s): O. G. Derzho and B. de Young In this paper we present a simple analytical model for low frequency and large scale variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The physical mechanism of the variability is related to temporal and spatial variations of the cyclonic mean flow (ACC) due to circularly propagating nonlinear barotropic Rossby wave trains. It is shown that the Rossby wave train is a fundamental mode, trapped between the major fronts in the ACC. The Rossby waves are predicted to rotate with a particular angular velocity that depends on the magnitude and width of the mean current. The spatial structure of the rotating pattern, including its zonal wave number, is defined by the specific form of the stream function-vorticity relation. The similarity between the simulated patterns and the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) is highlighted. The model can predict the observed sequence of warm and cold patches in the ACW as well as its zonal number.

Description: The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1213-1271, 2011 Author(s): D. N. Walters, M. J. Best, A. C. Bushell, D. Copsey, J. M. Edwards, P. D. Falloon, C. M. Harris, A. P. Lock, J. C. Manners, C. J. Morcrette, M. J. Roberts, R. A. Stratton, S. Webster, J. M. Wilkinson, M. R. Willett, I. A. Boutle, P. D. Earnshaw, P. G. Hill, C. MacLachlan, G. M. Martin, W. Moufouma-Okia, M. D. Palmer, J. C. Petch, G. G. Rooney, A. A. Scaife, and K. D. Williams We describe Global Atmosphere 3.0 (GA3.0): a configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) developed for use across climate research and weather prediction activities. GA3.0 has been formulated by converging the development paths of the Met Office's weather and climate global atmospheric model components such that wherever possible, atmospheric processes are modelled or parametrized seamlessly across spatial resolutions and timescales. This unified development process will provide the Met Office and its collaborators with regular releases of a configuration that has been evaluated, and can hence be applied, over a variety of modelling régimes. We also describe Global Land 3.0 (GL3.0): a configuration of the JULES community land surface model developed for use with GA3.0. This paper provides a comprehensive technical and scientific description of the GA3.0 and GL3.0 (and related GA3.1 and GL3.1) configurations and presents the results of some initial evaluations of their performance in various applications. It is to be the first in a series of papers describing each subsequent Global Atmosphere release; this will provide a single source of reference for established users and developers as well as researchers requiring access to a current, but trusted, global MetUM setup.

Description: FAMOUS, faster: using parallel computing techniques to accelerate the FAMOUS/HadCM3 climate model with a focus on the radiative transfer algorithm Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1273-1303, 2011 Author(s): P. Hanappe, A. Beurivé, F. Laguzet, L. Steels, N. Bellouin, O. Boucher, Y. H. Yamazaki, T. Aina, and M. Allen We have optimised the atmospheric radiation algorithm of the FAMOUS climate model on several hardware platforms. The optimisation involved translating the Fortran code to C and restructuring the algorithm around the computation of a single air column. A task queue and a thread pool are used to distribute the computation to several processors. Finally, four air columns are packed together in a single data structure and computed simultaneously using Single Instruction Multiple Data operations. The modified algorithm runs more than 50 times faster on the CELL's Synergistic Processing Elements than on its main PowerPC processing element. On Intel-compatible processors, the new radiation code runs 4 times faster and on graphics processors, using OpenCL, more than 2.5 times faster, as compared to the original code. Because the radiation code takes more than 60 % of the total CPU time, FAMOUS executes more than twice as fast. Our version of the algorithm returns bit-wise identical results, which demonstrates the robustness of our approach.

Description: A semi-phenomenological approach to explain the event-size distribution of the Drossel-Schwabl forest-fire model Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 381-388, 2011 Author(s): S. Hergarten and R. Krenn We present a novel approach to explain the complex scaling behavior of the Drossel-Schwabl forest-fire model in two dimensions. Clusters of trees are characterized by their size and perimeter only, whereas spatial correlations are neglected. Coalescence of clusters is restricted to clusters of similar sizes. Our approach derives the value of the scaling exponent τ of the event size distribution directly from the scaling of the accessible perimeter of percolation clusters. We obtain τ = 1.19 in the limit of infinite growth rate, in perfect agreement with numerical results. Furthermore, our approach predicts the unusual transition from a power law to an exponential decay even quantitatively, while the exponential decay at large event sizes itself is reproduced only qualitatively.

Description: Analyzing numerics of bulk microphysics schemes in Community models: warm rain processes Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1403-1434, 2011 Author(s): I. Sednev and S. Menon In the last decade there has been only one study that discussed time integration scheme (TIS) applied to advance governing differential equations in bulk microphysics (BLK) schemes. Recently, Morrison and Gettelman (2008) examine numerical aspects of double-moment BLK scheme with diagnostic treatment of precipitating hydrometeors implemented into Community Atmosphere Model, version 3 (CAM) to find an acceptable level of accuracy and numerical stability. However, stability condition for their explicit non-positive definite TIS was not defined. It is conventionally thought that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be applied for a broad range of spatial scales from large eddy up to global scale simulations if time steps used for model integration satisfy to a certain limit imposed mainly by dynamics. However, numerics used in WRF BLK schemes has never been analyzed in detail. To improve creditability of BLK schemes we derive a general analytical stability and positive definiteness criteria for explicit Eulerian time integration scheme used to advanced finite-difference equations that govern warm rain formation processes in microphysics packages in Community models (CAM and WRF) and define well-behaved, conditionally well-behaved, and non-well-behaved Explicit Eulerian Bulk Microphysics Code (EEBMPC) classes. We highlight that source codes of BLK schemes, originally developed for use in cloud-resolving models, implemented in Community models belong to conditionally well-behaved EEBMPC class and exhibit better performance for finer spatial resolutions when time steps do not exceed seconds or tenths of seconds. For coarser spatial resolutions used in regional and global scale simulations time steps are usually increased from hundredths up to thousands of seconds. This might lead to a degradation of conditionally well-behaved EEBMPCs ability to calculate the amount of precipitation as well as its spatial and temporal distribution since both stability and positive definiteness conditions are not met in the TIS. The correction through the so called “mass conservation” technique commonly used in many models with bulk microphysics is a main characteristic of non-well-behaved EEBMPC, whose utilization leads to erroneous conclusions regarding relative importance of different microphysical processes. Moreover, surface boundary conditions for ocean, land, lake, and sea ice models are dependent on the precipitation and its spatial and temporal distribution. Uncertainties in calculations of temporal and spatial patterns of accumulated precipitation influence the global water cycle. In fact, numerics in non-well-behaved EEBMPCs, which are used in Community Earth System Model, act as a hidden climate forcing agent, if relatively long time steps are used for the host model integration. By analyzing numerics of warm rain processes in EEBMPCs implemented in Community models we provide general guidelines regarding appropriate choice of integration time steps for use in these models.

Description: Double rank-ordering technique of ROMA (Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis) for multifractal fluctuations featuring multiple regimes of scales Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 405-414, 2011 Author(s): S. W. Y. Tam and T. Chang Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis (ROMA), a technique capable of deciphering the multifractal characteristics of intermittent fluctuations, was originally applied to the results of a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation. Application of ROMA to measured fluctuations in the auroral zone, due to the dominant physical effects changing from kinetic to MHD as the scale increases, requires an additional level of rank-ordering in order to divide the domain of scales into regimes. An algorithm for the additional step in this double rank-ordering technique is discussed, and is demonstrated in the application to the electric field fluctuations in the auroral zone as an example. As a result of the double rank-ordering, ROMA is able to take into account the nonlinear crossover behavior characterized by the multiple regimes of time scales by providing a scaling variable and a scaling function that are global to all the time scales.

Description: The 1-way on-line coupled atmospheric chemistry model system MECO(n) – Part 2: On-line coupling Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1359-1402, 2011 Author(s): A. Kerkweg and P. Jöckel A new, highly flexible model system for the seamless dynamical down-scaling of meteorological and chemical processes from the global to the meso-γ scale is presented. A global model and a cascade of an arbitrary number of limited-area model instances run concurrently in the same parallel environment, in which the coarser grained instances provide the boundary data for the finer grained instances. Thus, disk-space intensive and time consuming intermediate and pre-processing steps are entirely avoided and the time interpolation errors of common off-line nesting approaches are minimised. More specifically, the regional model COSMO of the German Weather Service (DWD) is nested on-line into the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 within the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) framework. ECHAM5 and COSMO have previously been equipped with the MESSy infrastructure, implying that the same process formulations (MESSy submodels) are available for both models. This guarantees the highest degree of achievable consistency, between both, the meteorological and chemical conditions at the domain boundaries of the nested limited-area model, and between the process formulations on all scales. The on-line nesting of the different models is established by a client-server approach with the newly developed Multi-Model-Driver (MMD), an additional component of the MESSy infrastructure. With MMD an arbitrary number of model instances can be run concurrently within the same message passing interface (MPI) environment, the respective coarser model (either global or regional) is the server for the nested finer (regional) client model, i.e., it provides the data required to calculate the initial and boundary fields to the client model. On-line nesting means that the coupled (client-server) models exchange their data via the computer memory, in contrast to the data exchange via files on disk in common off-line nesting approaches. MMD consists of a library (Fortran95 and some parts in C) which is based on the MPI standard and two new MESSy submodels, MMDSERV and MMDCLNT (both Fortran95) for the server and client models, respectively. MMDCLNT contains a further sub-submodel, INT2COSMO, for the interpolation of the coarse grid data provided by the server models (either ECHAM5/MESSy or COSMO/MESSy) to the grid of the respective client model (COSMO/MESSy). INT2COSMO is based on the off-line pre-processing tool INT2LM provided by the DWD. The new achievements allow the setup of model cascades for zooming (down-scaling) from the global scale to the lower edge of the meso-γ scale (≈1 km) with a very high degree of consistency between the different models and between the chemical and meteorological boundary conditions.

Description: Development and evaluation of an Earth-system model – HadGEM2 Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 997-1062, 2011 Author(s): W. J. Collins, N. Bellouin, M. Doutriaux-Boucher, N. Gedney, P. Halloran, T. Hinton, J. Hughes, C. D. Jones, M. Joshi, S. Liddicoat, G. Martin, F. O'Connor, J. Rae, C. Senior, S. Sitch, I. Totterdell, A. Wiltshire, and S. Woodward We describe here the development and evaluation of an Earth system model suitable for centennial-scale climate prediction. The principal new components added to the physical climate model are the terrestrial and ocean ecosystems and gas-phase tropospheric chemistry, along with their coupled interactions. The individual Earth system components are described briefly and the relevant interactions between the components are explained. Because the multiple interactions could lead to unstable feedbacks, we go through a careful process of model spin up to ensure that all components are stable and the interactions balanced. This spun-up configuration is evaluated against observed data for the Earth system components and is generally found to perform very satisfactorily. The reason for the evaluation phase is that the model is to be used for the core climate simulations carried out by the Met Office Hadley Centre for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), so it is essential that addition of the extra complexity does not detract substantially from its climate performance. Localised changes in some specific meteorological variables can be identified, but the impacts on the overall simulation of present day climate are slight. This model is proving valuable both for climate predictions, and for investigating the strengths of biogeochemical feedbacks.

Description: Large eddy simulation of sediment transport over rippled beds Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, 1169-1184, 2014 Author(s): J. C. Harris and S. T. Grilli Wave-induced boundary layer (BL) flows over sandy rippled bottoms are studied using a numerical model that applies a one-way coupling of a "far-field" inviscid flow model to a "near-field" large eddy simulation (LES) Navier–Stokes (NS) model. The incident inviscid velocity and pressure fields force the LES, in which near-field, wave-induced, turbulent bottom BL flows are simulated. A sediment suspension and transport model is embedded within the coupled flow model. The numerical implementation of the various models has been reported elsewhere, where we showed that the LES was able to accurately simulate both mean flow and turbulent statistics for oscillatory BL flows over a flat, rough bed. Here we show that the model accurately predicts the mean velocity fields and suspended sediment concentration for oscillatory flows over full-scale vortex ripples. Tests show that surface roughness has a significant effect on the results. Beyond increasing our insight into wave-induced oscillatory bottom BL physics, sophisticated coupled models of sediment transport such as that presented have the potential to make quantitative predictions of sediment transport and erosion/accretion around partly buried objects in the bottom, which is important for a vast array of bottom deployed instrumentation and other practical ocean engineering problems.

Description: Dependence of sandpile avalanche frequency–size distribution on coverage extent and compactness of embedded toppling threshold heterogeneity: implications for the variation of Gutenberg–Richter b value Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, 1185-1193, 2014 Author(s): L.-Y. Chiao and Q. Liu The effects of the spatiotemporal evolution of failure threshold heterogeneity on the dynamics of fault criticality, and thus on regional seismogenesis, have attracted strong interest in the field of regional seismotectonics. The heterogeneity might be a manifestation of the macroscopic distribution and multiscale strength variation of asperities, the distinct regional stress level, and (microscopically) heterogeneous fault surface roughness or friction regimes. In this study, rather than attempting to mimic the complex microscale slipping physics on a fault surface, sandpile cellular automata were implemented with a straightforward toppling rule. The objective is to examine the influence of distinct configurations of the embedded heterogeneous toppling threshold field on the global system avalanche event statistics. The examination results revealed that increasing the coverage extent and decreasing the compactness of the heterogeneous failure threshold, rather than the magnitude, range of contrast, diversity, or the geometric configuration of the threshold heterogeneity, leads to a systematic increase in the scaling exponent of the avalanche event power law statistics, implying the importance of mutual interaction among toppling sites with distinct thresholds. For tectonic provinces with differing stress regimes evolving spatio temporally, it is postulated that the distinct extent and compactness of the heterogeneous failure threshold are critical factors that manifest in the reported dynamic variations of seismicity scaling.

Description: A multi-layer land surface energy budget model for implicit coupling with global atmospheric simulations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 7, 8649-8701, 2014 Author(s): J. Ryder, J. Polcher, P. Peylin, C. Ottlé, Y. Chen, E. van Gorsel, V. Haverd, M. J. McGrath, K. Naudts, J. Otto, A. Valade, and S. Luyssaert In Earth system modelling, a description of the energy budget of the vegetated surface layer is fundamental as it determines the meteorological conditions in the planetary boundary layer and as such contributes to the atmospheric conditions and its circulation. The energy budget in most Earth system models has long been based on a "big-leaf approach", with averaging schemes that represent in-canopy processes. Such models have difficulties in reproducing consistently the energy balance in field observations. We here outline a newly developed numerical model for energy budget simulation, as a component of the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems – CANopy). This new model implements techniques from single-site canopy models in a practical way. It includes representation of in-canopy transport, a multilayer longwave radiation budget, height-specific calculation of aerodynamic and stomatal conductance, and interaction with the bare soil flux within the canopy space. Significantly, it avoids iterations over the height of tha canopy and so maintains implicit coupling to the atmospheric model LMDz. As a first test, the model is evaluated against data from both an intensive measurement campaign and longer term eddy covariance measurements for the intensively studied Eucalyptus stand at Tumbarumba, Australia. The model performs well in replicating both diurnal and annual cycles of fluxes, as well as the gradients of sensible heat fluxes. However, the model overestimates sensible heat flux against an underestimate of the radiation budget. Improved performance is expected through the implementation of a more detailed calculation of stand albedo and a more up-to-date stomatal conductance calculation.

Description: Instability and change detection in exponential families and generalized linear models, with a study of Atlantic tropical storms Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, 1133-1143, 2014 Author(s): Y. Lu and S. Chatterjee Exponential family statistical distributions, including the well-known normal, binomial, Poisson, and exponential distributions, are overwhelmingly used in data analysis. In the presence of covariates, an exponential family distributional assumption for the response random variables results in a generalized linear model. However, it is rarely ensured that the parameters of the assumed distributions are stable through the entire duration of the data collection process. A failure of stability leads to nonsmoothness and nonlinearity in the physical processes that result in the data. In this paper, we propose testing for stability of parameters of exponential family distributions and generalized linear models. A rejection of the hypothesis of stable parameters leads to change detection. We derive the related likelihood ratio test statistic. We compare the performance of this test statistic to the popular normal distributional assumption dependent cumulative sum (Gaussian CUSUM) statistic in change detection problems. We study Atlantic tropical storms using the techniques developed here, so to understand whether the nature of these tropical storms has remained stable over the last few decades.

Description: iGen: the automated generation of a parameterisation of entrainment in marine stratocumulus Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 971-995, 2011 Author(s): D. F. Tang and S. Dobbie In a previous paper we described a new technique for automatically generating parameterisations using a program called iGen. iGen generates parameterisations by analysing the source code of a high resolution model that resolves the physics to be parameterised. In order to demonstrate that this technique scales up to deal with models of realistic complexity we have used iGen to generate a parameterisation of entrainment in marine stratocumulus. We present details of our technique in which iGen was used to analyse the source code of a cloud resolving model and generate a parameterisation of the mean and standard deviation of entrainment velocity in marine stratocumulus in terms of the large-scale state of the boundary layer. The parameterisation was tested against results from the DYCOMS-II intercomparison of cloud resolving models and iGen's parameterisation of mean entrainment velocity was found to be 5.27 × 10 −3 ± 0.62 × 10 −3 m s −1 compared to 5.2 × 10 −3 ± 0.8 × 10 −3 m s −1 for the DYCOMS-II ensemble of cloud resolving models.

Description: Rank ordering multifractal analysis of the auroral electrojet index Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 277-285, 2011 Author(s): G. Consolini and P. De Michelis In the second half of the 90s interest grew on the complex features of the magnetospheric dynamics in response to solar wind changes. An important series of papers were published on the occurrence of chaos, turbulence and complexity. Among them, particularly interesting was the study of the bursty and fractal/multifractal character of the high latitude energy release during geomagnetic storms, which was evidenced by analyzing the features of the Auroral Electrojet (AE) indices. Recently, the multifractal features of the small time-scale increments of AE-indices have been criticized in favor of a more simple fractal behavior. This is particularly true for the scaling features of the probability density functions (PDFs) of the AE index increments. Here, after a brief review of the nature of the fractal/multifractal features of the magnetospheric response to solar wind changes, we investigate the multifractal nature of the scaling features of the AE index increments PDFs using the Rank Ordering Multifractal Analysis (ROMA) technique. The ROMA results clearly demonstrate the existence of a hierarchy of scaling indices, depending on the increment amplitude, for the data collapsing of PDFs relative to increments at different time scales. Our results confirm the previous results by Consolini et al. (1996) and the more recent results by Rypdal and Rypdal (2010).

Description: The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 689-763, 2011 Author(s): C. D. Jones, J. K. Hughes, N. Bellouin, S. C. Hardiman, G. S. Jones, J. Knight, S. Liddicoat, F. M. O'Connor, R. J. Andres, C. Bell, K.-O. Boo, A. Bozzo, N. Butchart, P. Cadule, K. D. Corbin, M. Doutriaux-Boucher, P. Friedlingstein, J. Gornall, L. Gray, P. R. Halloran, G. Hurtt, W. Ingram, J.-F. Lamarque, R. M. Law, M. Meinshausen, S. Osprey, E. J. Palin, L. Parsons Chini, T. Raddatz, M. Sanderson, A. A. Sellar, A. Schurer, P. Valdes, N. Wood, S. Woodward, M. Yoshioka, and M. Zerroukat The scientific understanding of the Earth's climate system, including the central question of how the climate system is likely to respond to human-induced perturbations, is comprehensively captured in GCMs and Earth System Models(ESM). Diagnosing the simulated climate response, and comparing responses across different models, is crucially dependent on transparent assumptions of how the GCM/ESM has been driven – especially because the implementation can involve subjective decisions and may differ between modelling groups performing the same experiment. This paper outlines the climate forcings and setup of the Met Office Hadley Centre ESM, HadGEM2-ES for the CMIP5 set of centennial experiments. We document the prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol precursors, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone assumptions, as well as implementation of land-use change and natural forcings for the HadGEM2-ES historical and future experiments following the Representative Concentration Pathways. In addition, we provide details of how HadGEM2-ES ensemble members were initialised from the control run and how the palaeoclimate and AMIP experiments, as well as the "emission-driven" RCP experiments were performed.

Description: The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model Climate configurations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 765-841, 2011 Author(s): The HadGEM2 Development Team: Martin, G. M., N. Bellouin, W. J. Collins, I. D. Culverwell, P. R. Halloran, S. C. Hardiman, T. J. Hinton, C. D. Jones, R. E. McDonald, A. J. McLaren, F. M. O'Connor, M. J. Roberts, J. M. Rodriguez, S. Woodward, M. J. Best, M. E. Brooks, A. R. Brown, N. Butchart, C. Dearden, S. H. Derbyshire, I. Dharssi, M. Doutriaux-Boucher, J. M. Edwards, P. D. Falloon, N. Gedney, L. J. Gray, H. T. Hewitt, M. Hobson, M. R. Huddleston, J. Hughes, S. Ineson, W. J. Ingram, P. M. James, T. C. Johns, C. E. Johnson, A. Jones, C. P. Jones, M. M. Joshi, A. B. Keen, S. Liddicoat, A. P. Lock, A. V. Maidens, J. C. Manners, S. F. Milton, J. G. L. Rae, J. K. Ridley, A. Sellar, C. A. Senior, I. J. Totterdell, A. Verhoef, P. L. Vidale, and A. Wiltshire We describe the HadGEM2 family of climate configurations of the Met Office Unified Model, MetUM. The concept of a model "family" comprises a range of specific model configurations incorporating different levels of complexity but with a common physical framework. The HadGEM2 family of configurations includes atmosphere and ocean components, with and without a vertical extension to include a well-resolved stratosphere, and an Earth-System (ES) component which includes dynamic vegetation, ocean biology and atmospheric chemistry. The HadGEM2 physical model includes improvements designed to address specific systematic errors encountered in the previous climate configuration, HadGEM1, namely Northern Hemisphere continental temperature biases and tropical sea surface temperature biases and poor variability. Targeting these biases was crucial in order that the ES configuration could represent important biogeochemical climate feedbacks. Detailed descriptions and evaluations of particular HadGEM2 family members are included in a number of other publications, and the discussion here is limited to a summary of the overall performance using a set of model metrics which compare the way in which the various configurations simulate present-day climate and its variability.

Description: Towards an online-coupled chemistry-climate model: evaluation of COSMO-ART Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1809-1874, 2011 Author(s): C. Knote, D. Brunner, H. Vogel, J. Allan, A. Asmi, M. Äijälä, S. Carbone, H. D. van der Gon, J. L. Jimenez, A. Kiendler-Scharr, C. Mohr, L. Poulain, A. S. H. Prévôt, E. Swietlicki, and B. Vogel The online-coupled, regional chemistry transport model COSMO-ART is evaluated for periods in all seasons against several measurement datasets to assess its ability to represent gaseous pollutants and ambient aerosol characteristics over the European domain. Measurements used in the comparison include long-term station observations, satellite and ground-based remote sensing products, and complex datasets of aerosol chemical composition and number size distribution from recent field campaigns. This is the first time these comprehensive measurements of aerosol characteristics in Europe are used to evaluate a regional chemistry transport model. We show a detailed analysis of the simulated size-resolved chemical composition under different meteorological conditions. The model is able to represent trace gas concentrations with good accuracy and reproduces bulk aerosol properties rather well though with a clear tendency to underestimate both total mass (PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) and aerosol optical depth. We find indications of an overestimation of shipping emissions. Time evolution of aerosol chemical composition is captured, although some biases are found in relative composition. Nitrate aerosol components are on average overestimated, and sulfates underestimated. The accuracy of simulated organics depends strongly on season and location. While strongly underestimated during summer, organic mass is comparable in spring and autumn. We see indications for an overestimated fractional contribution of primary organic matter in urban areas and an underestimation of SOA at many locations. Aerosol number concentrations can be simulated well, size distributions are comparable. Our work sets the basis for subsequent studies of aerosol characteristics and climate impacts with COSMO-ART, and highlights areas where improvements are necessary for current regional modeling systems in general.

Description: Mapping the climate: guidance on appropriate techniques to map climate variables and their uncertainty Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1875-1906, 2011 Author(s): N. R. Kaye, A. Hartley, and D. Hemming Maps are a crucial asset in communicating climate science to a diverse audience, and there is a wealth of software available to analyse and visualise climate information. However, this availability makes it easy to create poor maps as users often lack an underlying cartographic knowledge. Furthermore, communicating and visualising uncertainties in climate data and climate change projections, using for example ensemble based approaches, presents additional challenges for mapping that require careful consideration. This paper assesses a range of techniques for mapping uncertainties, comparing "intrinsic" approaches that use colour in much the same way as conventional thematic maps, and "extrinsic" approaches that incorporate additional geometry such as points or features. We proposes that, unlike traditional cartography, where many known standards allow maps to be interpreted easily, there is no standard mapping approach used to represent uncertainty (in climate or other information). Consequently, a wide range of techniques have been applied for this purpose, and users may spend unnecessary time trying to understand the mapping approach rather than interpreting the information presented. We use cartographic knowledge and lessons learned from mapping other information to propose a suitable mapping technique that represents both magnitude and uncertainty in climate data. This technique adjusts the hue of a small palette of colours to show the mean or median of a climate variable, and the saturation of the colour to illustrate a measure of uncertainty. It is designed to be easy to replicate, visible to colour blind people and intuitive to understand. This technique may be utilised to map a wide range of climate data, and it is proposed that it would provide a consistent approach suitable for mapping information for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5).

Description: A new version of the CNRM Chemistry-Climate Model, CNRM-CCM: description and improvements from the CCMVal-2 simulations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1129-1183, 2011 Author(s): M. Michou, D. Saint-Martin, H. Teyssèdre, A. Alias, F. Karcher, D. Olivié, A. Voldoire, B. Josse, V.-H. Peuch, H. Clark, J. N. Lee, and F. Chéroux This paper presents a new version of the Météo-France CNRM Chemistry-Climate Model, so-called CNRM-CCM. It includes some fundamental changes from the previous version (CNRM-ACM) which was extensively evaluated in the context of the CCMVal-2 validation activity. The most notable changes concern the radiative code of the GCM, and the inclusion of the detailed stratospheric chemistry of our Chemistry-Transport model MOCAGE on-line within the GCM. A 47-yr transient simulation (1960–2006) is the basis of our analysis. CNRM-CCM generates satisfactory dynamical and chemical fields in the stratosphere. Several shortcomings of CNRM-ACM simulations for CCMVal-2 that resulted from an erroneous representation of the impact of volcanic aerosols as well as from transport deficiencies have been eliminated. Remaining problems concern the upper stratosphere (5 to 1 hPa) where temperatures are too high, and where there are biases in the NO 2 , N 2 O 5 and O 3 mixing ratios. In contrast, temperatures at the tropical tropopause are too cold. These issues are addressed through the implementation of a more accurate radiation scheme at short wavelengths. Despite these problems we show that this new CNRM CCM is a useful tool to study chemistry-climate applications.

Description: Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project: implementation strategy and mid-Pliocene Global climatology using GENESIS v3.0 GCM Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 2577-2603, 2011 Author(s): S. J. Koenig, R. M. DeConto, and D. Pollard The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.29 to 2.97 Ma BP) has been identified as an analogue for the future, with the potential to help understand climate processes in a warmer than modern world. Sets of climate proxies, combined to provide boundary conditions for Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations of the mid-Pliocene, form the basis for the international, data-driven Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we outline the strategy for implementing pre-industrial (modern) and mid-Pliocene forcings and boundary conditions into the GENESIS version 3 GCM, as part of PlioMIP. We describe the prescription of greenhouse gas concentrations and orbital parameters and the implementation of geographic boundary conditions such as land-ice-sea distribution, topography, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, vegetation, soils, and ice sheets. We further describe model-specific details including spin-up and integration times. In addition, the global climatology of the mid-Pliocene as simulated by the GENESIS v3 GCM is analyzed and compared to the pre-industrial control simulation. The simulated climate of the mid-Pliocene warm interval is found to differ considerably from pre-industrial. We identify model sensitivity to imposed forcings, and internal feedbacks that collectively affect both local and far-field responses. Our analysis points out the need to assess both the direct impacts of external forcings and the combined effects of indirect, internal feedbacks. This paper provides the basis for assessing model biases within the PlioMIP framework, and will be useful for comparisons with other studies of mid-Pliocene climates.

Description: Development of the high-order decoupled direct method in three dimensions for particulate matter: enabling advanced sensitivity analysis in air quality models Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 2605-2633, 2011 Author(s): W. Zhang, S. L. Capps, Y. Hu, A. Nenes, S. L. Napelenok, and A. G. Russell The high-order decoupled direct method in three dimensions for particular matter (HDDM-3D/PM) has been implemented in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to enable advanced sensitivity analysis. The major effort of this work is to develop high-order DDM sensitivity analysis of ISORROPIA, the inorganic aerosol module of CMAQ. A case-specific approach has been applied, and the sensitivities of activity coefficients and water content are explicitly computed. Stand-alone tests are performed for ISORROPIA by comparing the sensitivities (first- and second-order) computed by HDDM and the brute force (BF) approximations. Similar comparison has also been carried out for CMAQ results simulated using a week-long winter episode for a continental US domain. Second-order sensitivities of aerosol species (e.g., sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium) with respect to domain-wide SO 2 , NO x , and NH 3 emissions show agreement with BF results, yet exhibit less noise in locations where BF results are demonstrably inaccurate. Second-order sensitivity analysis elucidates nonlinear responses of secondary inorganic aerosols to their precursors and competing species that have not yet been well-understood with other approaches. Including second-order sensitivity coefficients in the Taylor series projection of the nitrate concentrations with a 50% reduction in domain-wide NO x emission shows a statistically significant improvement compared to the first-order Taylor series projection.

Description: Preface Large amplitude internal waves in the coastal ocean Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 653-655, 2011 Author(s): R. Grimshaw, K. Helfrich, and A. Scotti No Abstract available.

Description: Size distribution and structure of Barchan dune fields Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 455-467, 2011 Author(s): O. Durán, V. Schwämmle, P. G. Lind, and H. J. Herrmann Barchans are isolated mobile dunes often organized in large dune fields. Dune fields seem to present a characteristic dune size and spacing, which suggests a cooperative behavior based on dune interaction. In Duran et al. (2009), we propose that the redistribution of sand by collisions between dunes is a key element for the stability and size selection of barchan dune fields. This approach was based on a mean-field model ignoring the spatial distribution of dune fields. Here, we present a simplified dune field model that includes the spatial evolution of individual dunes as well as their interaction through sand exchange and binary collisions. As a result, the dune field evolves towards a steady state that depends on the boundary conditions. Comparing our results with measurements of Moroccan dune fields, we find that the simulated fields have the same dune size distribution as in real fields but fail to reproduce their homogeneity along the wind direction.

Description: Pliocene Ice Sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP) – experimental design Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 2661-2686, 2011 Author(s): A. M. Dolan, S. J. Koenig, D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, and R. M. DeConto During the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 million yr ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the next century and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were slightly higher. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mid-Pliocene Warm Period provides a unique testing ground to investigate the stability of the Earth's ice sheets and their contribution to sea level in a warmer-than-modern world. Climate models and ice sheet models can be used to enhance our understanding of ice sheet stability, however, uncertainties associated with different ice-sheet modelling frameworks/approaches mean that a rigorous comparison of numerical ice sheet model simulations for the Pliocene is essential. As an extension to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP; Haywood et al., 2010, 2011a), the Pliocene Ice Sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP) will address these uncertainties. Here we outline the PLISMIP experimental design and initialisation conditions that have been adopted to simulate the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under present day and warm mid-Pliocene conditions. Not only will this project provide a new benchmark in the simulation of ice sheets in a past warm period, but the analysis of model sensitivity to various uncertainties could directly inform future predictions of ice sheet and sea level change.

Description: A web service based tool to plan atmospheric research flights Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 2123-2163, 2011 Author(s): M. Rautenhaus, G. Bauer, and A. Dörnbrack We present a web service based tool for the planning of atmospheric research flights. The tool provides online access to horizontal maps and vertical cross-sections of numerical weather prediction data and in particular allows the interactive design of a flight route in direct relation to the predictions. It thereby fills a crucial gap in the set of currently available tools for using data from numerical atmospheric models for research flight planning. A distinct feature of the tool is its lightweight, web service based architecture, requiring only commodity hardware and a basic Internet connection for deployment. Access to visualisations of prediction data is achieved by using an extended version of the Open Geospatial Consortium Web Map Service (WMS) standard, a technology that has gained increased attention in meteorology in recent years. With the WMS approach, we avoid the transfer of large forecast model output datasets while enabling on-demand generated visualisations of the predictions at campaign sites with limited Internet bandwidth. Usage of the Web Map Service standard also enables access to third-party sources of georeferenced data. We have implemented the software using the open-source programming language Python. In the present article, we describe the architecture of the tool. As an example application, we discuss a case study research flight planned for the scenario of the 2010 Eyjafjalla volcano eruption. Usage and implementation details are provided as Supplement.

Description: Combining 2-m temperature nowcasting and short range ensemble forecasting Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 903-910, 2011 Author(s): A. Kann, T. Haiden, and C. Wittmann During recent years, numerical ensemble prediction systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties of dynamical and physical processes as represented in numerical weather models. The latest generation of limited area ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPSs) allows for probabilistic forecasts at high resolution in both space and time. However, these systems still suffer from systematic deficiencies. Especially for nowcasting (0–6 h) applications the ensemble spread is smaller than the actual forecast error. This paper tries to generate probabilistic short range 2-m temperature forecasts by combining a state-of-the-art nowcasting method and a limited area ensemble system, and compares the results with statistical methods. The Integrated Nowcasting Through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system, which has been in operation at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) since 2006 (Haiden et al., 2011), provides short range deterministic forecasts at high temporal (15 min–60 min) and spatial (1 km) resolution. An INCA Ensemble (INCA-EPS) of 2-m temperature forecasts is constructed by applying a dynamical approach, a statistical approach, and a combined dynamic-statistical method. The dynamical method takes uncertainty information (i.e. ensemble variance) from the operational limited area ensemble system ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) which is running operationally at ZAMG (Wang et al., 2011). The purely statistical method assumes a well-calibrated spread-skill relation and applies ensemble spread according to the skill of the INCA forecast of the most recent past. The combined dynamic-statistical approach adapts the ensemble variance gained from ALADIN-LAEF with non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR) which yields a statistical \mbox{correction} of the first and second moment (mean bias and dispersion) for Gaussian distributed continuous variables. Validation results indicate that all three methods produce sharp and reliable probabilistic 2-m temperature forecasts. However, the statistical and combined dynamic-statistical methods slightly outperform the pure dynamical approach, mainly due to the under-dispersive behavior of ALADIN-LAEF outside the nowcasting range. The training length does not have a pronounced impact on forecast skill, but a spread re-scaling improves the forecast skill substantially. Refinements of the statistical methods yield a slight further improvement.

Description: The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 2: Response to external forcings Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 3363-3435, 2011 Author(s): S. J. Phipps, L. D. Rotstayn, H. B. Gordon, J. L. Roberts, A. C. Hirst, and W. F. Budd The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulation and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. It is freely available to the research community. This paper evaluates the response of the model to external forcings which correspond to past and future changes in the climate system. A simulation of the mid-Holocene climate is performed, in which changes in the seasonal and meridional distribution of incoming solar radiation are imposed. Mk3L correctly simulates increased summer temperatures at northern mid-latitudes and cooling in the tropics. However, it is unable to capture some of the regional-scale features of the mid-Holocene climate, with the precipitation over Northern Africa being deficient. The model simulates a reduction of between 7 and 15% in the amplitude of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a smaller decrease than that implied by the palaeoclimate record. However, the realism of the simulated ENSO is limited by the model's relatively coarse spatial resolution. Transient simulations of the late Holocene climate are then performed. The evolving distribution of insolation is imposed, and an acceleration technique is applied and assessed. The model successfully captures the temperature changes in each hemisphere and the upward trend in ENSO variability. However, the lack of a dynamic vegetation scheme does not allow it to simulate an abrupt desertification of the Sahara. To assess the response of Mk3L to other forcings, transient simulations of the last millennium are performed. Changes in solar irradiance, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and volcanic emissions are applied to the model. The model is again broadly successful at simulating larger-scale changes in the climate system. Both the magnitude and the spatial pattern of the simulated 20th century warming are consistent with observations. However, the model underestimates the magnitude of the relative warmth associated with the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly. Finally, three transient simulations are performed, in which the atmospheric CO 2 concentration is stabilised at two, three and four times the pre-industrial value. All three simulations exhibit ongoing surface warming, reduced sea ice cover, and a reduction in the rate of North Atlantic Deep Water formation followed by its gradual recovery. Antarctic Bottom Water formation ceases, with the shutdown being permanent for a trebling and quadrupling of the CO 2 concentration. The transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities of the model are determined. The short-term transient response to a doubling of the CO 2 concentration at 1% per year is a warming of 1.5 K, while the long-term equilibrium response is a warming of at least 3.9 K.

Description: The Nexus Land-Use model version 1.0, an approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 571-638, 2012 Author(s): F. Souty, T. Brunelle, P. Dumas, B. Dorin, P. Ciais, R. Crassous, C. Müller, and A. Bondeau Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i) a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs such as industrial fertilisers; (ii) a detailed representation of the livestock production system subdivided into an intensive and an extensive component, and (iii) a spatially explicit distribution of potential (maximal) crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL). The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation for farmers. The land-use modelling approach described in this paper entails several advantages. Firstly, it makes it possible to explore interactions among different types of biomass demand for food and animal feed, in a consistent approach, including indirect effects on land-use change resulting from international trade. Secondly, yield variations induced by the possible expansion of croplands on less suitable marginal lands are modelled by using regional land area distributions of potential yields, and a calculated boundary between intensive and extensive production. The model equations and parameter values are first described in details. Then, idealised scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are described, and their impacts on pasture and cropland areas are investigated.

Description: Modelling sub-grid wetland in the ORCHIDEE global land surface model: evaluation against river discharges and remotely sensed data Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 683-735, 2012 Author(s): B. Ringeval, B. Decharme, S. L. Piao, P. Ciais, F. Papa, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, C. Prigent, P. Friedlingstein, I. Gouttevin, C. Koven, and A. Ducharne The quality of the global hydrological simulations performed by Land Surface Models (LSMs) strongly depends on processes that occur at unresolved spatial scales. Approaches such as TOPMODEL have been developed, which allow soil moisture redistribution within each grid-cell, based upon sub-grid scale topography. Moreover, the coupling between TOPMODEL and a LSM appears as a potential way to simulate wetland extent dynamic and its sensitivity to climate, a recently identified research problem for biogeochemical modelling, including methane emissions. Global evaluation of the coupling between TOPMODEL and an LSM is difficult, and prior attempts have been indirect, based on the evaluation of the simulated river flow. This study presents a new way to evaluate this coupling, within the ORCHIDEE LSM, using remote sensing data of inundated areas. Because of differences in nature between the satellite derived information – inundation extent – and the variable diagnosed by TOPMODEL/ORCHIDEE – area at maximum soil water content –, the evaluation focuses on the spatial distribution of these two quantities as well as on their temporal variation. Despite some difficulties in exactly matching observed localized inundated events, we obtain a rather good agreement in the distribution of these two quantities at a global scale. Floodplains are not accounted for in the model, and this is a major limitation. The difficulty of reproducing the year-to-year variability of the observed inundated area (for instance, the decreasing trend by the end of 90s) is also underlined. Classical indirect evaluation based on comparison between simulated and observed riverflow is also performed and underlines difficulties to simulate riverflow after coupling with TOPMODEL. The relationship between inundation and river flow at the basin scale in the model is analyzed, using both methods (evaluation against remote sensing data and riverflow). Finally, we discuss the potential of the TOPMODEL/LSM coupling to simulate wetland areas. A major limitation of the coupling for this purpose is linked to its ability to simulate a global wetland coverage consistent with the commonly used datasets. However, it seems to be a good opportunity to account for the wetland areas sensitivity to the climate and thus to simulate its temporal variability.

Description: Spatial patterns of linear and nonparametric long-term trends in Baltic sea-level variability Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 95-111, 2012 Author(s): R. V. Donner, R. Ehrcke, S. M. Barbosa, J. Wagner, J. F. Donges, and J. Kurths The study of long-term trends in tide gauge data is important for understanding the present and future risk of changes in sea-level variability for coastal zones, particularly with respect to the ongoing debate on climate change impacts. Traditionally, most corresponding analyses have exclusively focused on trends in mean sea-level. However, such studies are not able to provide sufficient information about changes in the full probability distribution (especially in the more extreme quantiles). As an alternative, in this paper we apply quantile regression (QR) for studying changes in arbitrary quantiles of sea-level variability. For this purpose, we chose two different QR approaches and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different settings. In particular, traditional linear QR poses very restrictive assumptions that are often not met in reality. For monthly data from 47 tide gauges from along the Baltic Sea coast, the spatial patterns of quantile trends obtained in linear and nonparametric (spline-based) frameworks display marked differences, which need to be understood in order to fully assess the impact of future changes in sea-level variability on coastal areas. In general, QR demonstrates that the general variability of Baltic sea-level has increased over the last decades. Linear quantile trends estimated for sliding windows in time reveal a wide-spread acceleration of trends in the median, but only localised changes in the rates of changes in the lower and upper quantiles.

Description: On closure parameter estimation in chaotic systems Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 127-143, 2012 Author(s): J. Hakkarainen, A. Ilin, A. Solonen, M. Laine, H. Haario, J. Tamminen, E. Oja, and H. Järvinen Many dynamical models, such as numerical weather prediction and climate models, contain so called closure parameters. These parameters usually appear in physical parameterizations of sub-grid scale processes, and they act as "tuning handles" of the models. Currently, the values of these parameters are specified mostly manually, but the increasing complexity of the models calls for more algorithmic ways to perform the tuning. Traditionally, parameters of dynamical systems are estimated by directly comparing the model simulations to observed data using, for instance, a least squares approach. However, if the models are chaotic, the classical approach can be ineffective, since small errors in the initial conditions can lead to large, unpredictable deviations from the observations. In this paper, we study numerical methods available for estimating closure parameters in chaotic models. We discuss three techniques: off-line likelihood calculations using filtering methods, the state augmentation method, and the approach that utilizes summary statistics from long model simulations. The properties of the methods are studied using a modified version of the Lorenz 95 system, where the effect of fast variables are described using a simple parameterization.

Description: Evaluation of a near-global eddy-resolving ocean model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 4305-4354, 2012 Author(s): P. R. Oke, D. A. Griffin, A. Schiller, R. J. Matear, R. Fiedler, J. Mansbridge, A. Lenton, M. Cahill, M. A. Chamberlain, and K. Ridgway Analysis of the variability in an 18-yr run of a near-global, eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model coupled with biogeochemistry is presented. Comparisons between modelled and observed mean sea level (MSL), mixed-layer depth (MLD), sea-level anomaly (SLA), sea-surface temperature (SST), and Chlorophyll a indicate that the model variability is realistic. We find some systematic errors in the modelled MLD, with the model generally deeper than observations, that results in errors in the Chlorophyll a , owing to the strong biophysical coupling. We evaluate several other metrics in the model, including the zonally-averaged seasonal cycle of SST, meridional overturning, volume transports through key Straits and passages, zonal averaged temperature and salinity, and El Nino-related SST indices. We find that the modelled seasonal cycle in SST is 0.5–1.5 °C weaker than observed; volume transports of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the East Australian Current, and Indonesian Throughflow are in good agreement with observational estimates; and the correlation between the modelled and observed NINO SST indices exceed 0.91. Most aspects of the model circulation are realistic. We conclude that the model output is suitable for broader analysis to better understand ocean dynamics and ocean variability.

Description: Comprehensive analysis of tornado statistics in comparison to earthquakes: intensity and temporal behaviour Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 47-57, 2013 Author(s): L. Schielicke and P. Névir Tornadoes and earthquakes are characterised by a high variability in their properties concerning intensity, geometric properties and temporal behaviour. Earthquakes are known for power-law behaviour in their intensity (Gutenberg–Richter law) and temporal statistics (e.g. Omori law and interevent waiting times). The observed similarity of high variability of these two phenomena motivated us to compare the statistical behaviour of tornadoes using seismological methods and quest for power-law behaviour. In general, the statistics of tornadoes show power-law behaviour partly coextensive with characteristic scales when the temporal resolution is high (10 to 60 min). These characteristic scales match with the typical diurnal behaviour of tornadoes, which is characterised by a maximum of tornado occurrences in the late afternoon hours. Furthermore, the distributions support the observation that tornadoes cluster in time. Finally, we shortly discuss a possible similar underlying structure composed of heterogeneous, coupled, interactive threshold oscillators that possibly explains the observed behaviour.

Description: Quantifying soil complexity using network models of soil porous structure Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 41-45, 2013 Author(s): M. Samec, A. Santiago, J. P. Cárdenas, R. M. Benito, A. M. Tarquis, S. J. Mooney, and D. Korošak This paper describes an investigation into the properties of spatially embedded complex networks representing the porous architecture of soil systems. We suggest an approach to quantify the complexity of soil pore structure based on the node-node link correlation properties of the networks. We show that the complexity depends on the strength of spatial embedding of the network and that this is related to the transition from a non-compact to compact phase of the network.

Description: Analysis of asymmetries in propagating mode-2 waves Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 59-69, 2013 Author(s): J. Olsthoorn, A. Baglaenko, and M. Stastna Using numerical simulations performed with a pseudo-spectral incompressible Navier–Stokes solver, we describe the asymmetries that arise in the recirculating core of mode-2 internal, solitary-like waves. The waves are generated in a manner consistent with many laboratory studies, namely via the collapse of a region of mixed fluid. Analysis of the simulations reveals that asymmetries across both the wave crest and the pycnocline centre develop in the spatial distribution of density, kinetic energy and a passive tracer transported by the mode-2 waves. The simulations are extended to three-dimensions to allow for the formation of spanwise instabilities. We find that three-dimensionalization modifies the structure and energetics of the core, but that the majority of the results obtained from two dimensional simulations remain valid. Taken together, our simulations demonstrate that the cores of solitary-like mode-2 waves are different then their counterparts for mode-1 waves and that their accurate characterization on both lab and field scales should account for the core asymmetry across the pycnocline centre.

Description: The ICON-1.2 hydrostatic atmospheric dynamical core on triangular grids – Part 1: Formulation and performance of the baseline version Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 59-119, 2013 Author(s): H. Wan, M. A. Giorgetta, G. Zängl, M. Restelli, D. Majewski, L. Bonaventura, K. Fröhlich, D. Reinert, P. Rípodas, and L. Kornblueh A hydrostatic atmospheric dynamical core is developed for the purpose of global climate modelling. The model applies finite-difference methods to discretize the primitive equations on spherical icosahedral grids, using C-type staggering with triangles as control volumes for mass. This paper documents the numerical methods employed in the baseline version of the model, discusses their properties, and presents results from various idealized test cases. The evaluation shows that the new dynamical core is able to correctly represent the evolution of baroclinic eddies in the atmosphere as well as their role in heat and momentum transport. The simulations compare well with the reference solutions, and show a clear trend of convergence as the horizontal resolution increases. First results from two aqua-planet simulations are also presented, in which the equatorial wave spectra derived from tropical precipitation agree well with those simulated by a spectral transform model. The new dynamical core thus provides a good basis for further model development. Certain aspects of the model formulation that need further investigation and improvement are also pointed out.

Description: The GREENROOF module (v7.3) for modelling green roof hydrological and energetic performances within TEB Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1127-1172, 2013 Author(s): C. S. de Munck, A. Lemonsu, R. Bouzouidja, V. Masson, and R. Claverie The need to prepare cities for climate change adaptation requests the urban modeller community to implement within their models sustainable adaptation strategies to be tested against specific city morphologies and scenarios. Greening city roofs is part of these strategies. In this context, a GREENROOF module for TEB (Town Energy Balance) has been developed to model the interactions between buildings and green roof systems at the scale of the city. This module allows one to describe an extensive green roof composed of four functional layers (vegetation – grasses or sedums, substrate, retention/drainage layers and artificial roof layers) and to model vegetation-atmosphere fluxes of heat, water and momentum, as well as the hydrological and thermal fluxes throughout the substrate and the drainage layers, and the thermal coupling with the structural building envelope. TEB-GREENROOF (v7.3) is therefore able to represent the impact of climate forcings on the functioning of the green roof vegetation and, conversely, the influence of the green roof on the local climate. A calibration exercise to adjust the model to the peculiar hydrological characteristics of the substrates and drainage layers commonly found on green roofs is performed for a case study located in Nancy (France) which consists of an extensive green roof with sedums. Model results for the optimum hydrological calibration show a good dynamics for the substrate water content which is nevertheless under-estimated but without impacting too much the green roof temperatures since they present a good agreement with observations. These results are encouraging with regard to modelling the impact of green roofs on thermal indoor comfort and energy consumption at the scale of cities, for which GREENROOF will be running with the building energy version of TEB, TEB-BEM. Moreover, the green roof studied for GREENROOF evaluation being a city-widespread type of extensive green roof, the hydrological characteristics derived through the evaluation exercise will be used as the standard configuration to model extensive green roofs at the scale of cities.

Description: The chemistry CATT–BRAMS model (CCATT–BRAMS 4.5): a regional atmospheric model system for integrated air quality and weather forecasting and research Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1173-1222, 2013 Author(s): K. M. Longo, S. R. Freitas, M. Pirre, V. Marécal, L. F. Rodrigues, J. Panetta, M. F. Alonso, N. E. Rosário, D. S. Moreira, M. S. Gácita, J. Arteta, R. Fonseca, R. Stockler, D. M. Katsurayama, A. Fazenda, and M. Bela The Coupled Chemistry Aerosol-Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CCATT–BRAMS, version 4.5) is an online regional chemical transport model designed for local and regional studies of atmospheric chemistry from surface to the lower stratosphere suitable both for operational and research purposes. It includes gaseous/aqueous chemistry, photochemistry, scavenging and dry deposition. The CCATT–BRAMS model takes advantages of the BRAMS specific development for the tropics/subtropics and of the recent availability of preprocessing tools for chemical mechanisms and of fast codes for photolysis rates. BRAMS includes state-of-the-art physical parameterizations and dynamic formulations to simulate atmospheric circulations of scales down to meters. The online coupling between meteorology and chemistry allows the system to be used for simultaneous atmospheric weather and chemical composition forecasts as well as potential feedbacks between them. The entire system comprises three preprocessing software tools for chemical mechanism (which are user defined), aerosol and trace gases emission fields and atmospheric and chemistry fields for initial and boundary conditions. In this paper, the model description is provided along evaluations performed using observational data obtained from ground-based stations, instruments aboard of aircrafts and retrieval from space remote sensing. The evaluation takes into account model application on different scales from megacities and Amazon Basin up to intercontinental region of the Southern Hemisphere.

Description: Parallel algorithms for planar and spherical Delaunay construction with an application to centroidal Voronoi tessellations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1427-1466, 2013 Author(s): D. W. Jacobsen, M. Gunzburger, T. Ringler, J. Burkardt, and J. Peterson A new algorithm, featuring overlapping domain decompositions, for the parallel construction of Delaunay and Voronoi tessellations is developed. Overlapping allows for the seamless stitching of the partial Delaunay tessellations constructed by individual processors. The algorithm is then modified, by the addition of stereographic projections, to handle the parallel construction of spherical Delaunay and Voronoi tessellations. The algorithms are then embedded into algorithms for the parallel construction of planar and spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations that require multiple constructions of Delaunay tessellations. Computational tests are used to demonstrate the efficiency and scalability of the algorithms for spherical Delaunay and centroidal Voronoi tessellations. Compared to serial versions of the algorithm and to the STRIPACK-based approaches, the new parallel algorithm results in significant speedups for the construction of spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations.

Description: Ion motion in the current sheet with sheared magnetic field – Part 1: Quasi-adiabatic theory Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 163-178, 2013 Author(s): A. V. Artemyev, A. I. Neishtadt, and L. M. Zelenyi We present a theory of trapped ion motion in the magnetotail current sheet with a constant dawn–dusk component of the magnetic field. Particle trajectories are described analytically using the quasi-adiabatic invariant corresponding to averaging of fast oscillations around the tangential component of the magnetic field. We consider particle dynamics in the quasi-adiabatic approximation and demonstrate that the principal role is played by large (so called geometrical) jumps of the quasi-adiabatic invariant. These jumps appear due to the current sheet asymmetry related to the presence of the dawn–dusk magnetic field. The analytical description is compared with results of numerical integration. We show that there are four possible regimes of particle motion. Each regime is characterized by certain ranges of values of the dawn–dusk magnetic field and particle energy. We find the critical value of the dawn–dusk magnetic field, where jumps of the quasi-adiabatic invariant vanish.

Description: Evaluating a lightning parameterization based on cloud-top height for mesoscale numerical model simulations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3493-3531, 2012 Author(s): J. Wong, M. C. Barth, and D. Noone The Price and Rind lightning parameterization based on cloud-top height is a commonly used method for predicting flash rate in global chemistry models. As mesoscale simulations begin to implement flash rate predictions at resolutions that partially resolve convection, it is necessary to validate and understand the behavior of this method within such regime. In this study, we tested the flash rate parameterization, intra-cloud/cloud-to-ground (IC:CG) partitioning parameterization, and the associated resolution dependency "calibration factor" by Price and Rind using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model running at 36 km, 12 km, and 4 km grid spacings within the continental United States. Our results show that while the integrated flash count is consistent with observation when model biases in convection are taken into account, an erroneous frequency distribution is simulated. When the spectral characteristics of lightning flash rate is a concern, we recommend the use of prescribed IC:CG values. In addition, using cloud-top from convective parameterization, the "calibration factor" is also shown to be insufficient in reconciling the resolution dependency at the tested grid spacing used in this study. We recommend scaling by areal ratio relative to a base-case grid spacing determined by convective core density.

Description: Using model reduction to predict the soil-surface C 18 OO flux: an example of representing complex biogeochemical dynamics in a computationally efficient manner Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3469-3491, 2012 Author(s): W. J. Riley Earth System Models (ESMs) must calculate large-scale interactions between the land and atmosphere while accurately characterizing fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in water, carbon, and nutrient dynamics. We present here a high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) approach that allows detailed process representation of a coupled carbon and water tracer (the δ 18 O value of the soil-surface CO 2 flux (δ F s )) in a computationally tractable manner. δ F s depends on the δ 18 O value of soil water, soil moisture, soil temperature, and soil CO 2 production (all of which are depth-dependent), and the δ 18 O value of above-surface CO 2 . We tested the HDMR approach over a growing season in a C 4 -dominated pasture using two vertical soil discretizations. The difference between the HDMR approach and the full model solution in the three-month integrated isoflux was less than 0.2% (0.5 mol m −2 ‰), and the approach is up to 100 times faster than the full numerical solution. This type of model reduction approach allows representation of complex coupled biogeochemical processes in regional and global climate models and can be extended to characterize subgrid-scale spatial heterogeneity.

Description: ECOCLIMAP-II/Europe: a twofold database of ecosystems and surface parameters at 1-km resolution based on satellite information for use in land surface, meteorological and climate models Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3573-3620, 2012 Author(s): S. Faroux, A. T. Kaptué Tchuenté, J.-L. Roujean, V. Masson, E. Martin, and P. Le Moigne The overall objective of the present study is to introduce the new ECOCLIMAP-II database for Europe, which is an upgrade for this region of the former initiative, ECOCLIMAP-I, already implemented at global scale. The ECOCLIMAP programme is a dual database at 1-km resolution that includes an ecosystem classification and a coherent set of land surface parameters that are primarily mandatory in meteorological modelling (notably leaf area index and albedo). Hence, the aim of this innovative physiography is to enhance the quality of initialisation and impose some surface attributes within the scope of weather forecasting and climate related studies. The strategy for implementing ECOCLIMAP-II is to depart from prevalent land cover products such as CLC2000 (Corine Land Cover) and GLC2000 (Global Land Cover) by splitting existing classes into new classes that possess a better regional character by virtue of the climatic environment (latitude, proximity to the sea, topography). The leaf area index (LAI) from MODIS and NDVI from SPOT/Vegetation yield the two proxy variables that were considered here in order to perform a multi-year trimmed analysis between 1999 and 2005 using the K-means method. Further, meteorological applications require each land cover type to appear as a partition of fractions of 4 main surface types or tiles (nature, water bodies, sea, urban areas) and, inside the nature tile, fractions of 12 Plant Functional Types (PFTs) representing generic vegetation types – principally broadleaf forest, needleleaf forest, C3 and C4 crops, grassland and bare land – as incorporated by the SVAT model ISBA developed at Météo France. This landscape division also forms the cornerstone of a validation exercise. The new ECOCLIMAP-II can be verified with auxiliary land cover products at very fine and coarse resolutions by means of versatile land occupation nomenclatures.

Description: Intercomparison of temperature trends in IPCC CMIP5 simulations with observations, reanalyses and CMIP3 models Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3621-3645, 2012 Author(s): J. Xu and A. M. Powell Jr. On the basis of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the climate model simulations covering 1979 through 2005, the temperature trends and their uncertainties have been examined to note the similarities or differences compared to the radiosonde observations, reanalyses and the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) simulations. The results show noticeable discrepancies for the estimated temperature trends in the four data groups (Radiosonde, Reanalysis, CMIP3 and CMIP5) although similarities can be observed. Compared to the CMIP3 model simulations, the simulation in some of CMIP5 models were improved. The CMIP5 models displayed a negative temperature trend in the stratosphere closer to the strong negative trend seen in the observations. However, the positive tropospheric trend in the tropics is overestimated by the CMIP5 models relative to CMIP3 models. While some of the models produce temperature trend patterns more highly correlated with the observed patterns in CMIP5, the other models (such as CCSM4 and IPSL_CM5A-LR) exhibit the reverse tendency. The CMIP5 temperature trend uncertainty was significantly reduced in most areas, especially in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere, compared to the CMIP3 simulations. Similar to the CMIP3, the CMIP5 simulations overestimated the tropospheric warming in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere and underestimated the stratospheric cooling. The crossover point where tropospheric warming changes into stratospheric cooling occurred near 100 hPa in the tropics, which is higher than in the radiosonde and reanalysis data. The result is likely related to the overestimation of convective activity over the tropical areas in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Generally, for the temperature trend estimates associated with the numerical models including the reanalyses and global climate models, the uncertainty in the stratosphere is much larger than that in the troposphere, and the uncertainty in the Antarctic is the largest. In addition, note that the reanalyses show the largest uncertainty in the lower tropical stratosphere, and the CMIP3 simulations show the largest uncertainty in both the south and north polar regions.

Description: Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 623-633, 2012 Author(s): F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, Y. He, J. Freer, and H. L. Cloke Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs) through regional climate models (RCMs) potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS) techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1) a simple direct method (DM), (2) quantile-quantile mapping (QM) and (3) a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts) project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.

Description: Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model intercomparison project (WETCHIMP) Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 4071-4136, 2012 Author(s): R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan The Wetland and Wetland CH 4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH 4 ) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2012). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extents and CH 4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH 4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extents and CH 4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH 4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Description: Improving the representation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in the MOZART-4 global chemical transport model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 4187-4232, 2012 Author(s): A. Mahmud and K. C. Barsanti The secondary organic aerosol (SOA) module in the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4) has been updated by replacing existing two-product (2p) parameters with those obtained from two-product volatility basis set (2p-VBS) fits, and by treating SOA formation from the following volatile organic compounds (VOCs): isoprene, propene and lumped alkenes. Strong seasonal and spatial variations in global SOA distributions were demonstrated, with significant differences in the predicted concentrations between the base-case and updated model versions. The base-case MOZART-4 predicted annual average SOA of 0.36 ± 0.50 μg m −3 in South America, 0.31 ± 0.38 μg m −3 in Indonesia, 0.09 ± 0.05 μg m −3 in the USA, and 0.12 ± 0.07 μg m −3 in Europe. Concentrations from the updated versions of the model showed a~marked increase in annual average SOA. Using the updated set of parameters alone (MZ4-v1) increased annual average SOA by ~8%, ~16%, ~56%, and ~108% from the base-case in South America, Indonesia, USA, and Europe, respectively. Treatment of additional parent VOCs (MZ4-v2) resulted in an even more dramatic increase of ~178–406% in annual average SOA for these regions over the base-case. The increases in predicted SOA concentrations further resulted in increases in corresponding SOA contributions to annual average total aerosol optical depth (AOD) by

Description: Modeling agriculture in the Community Land Model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 4137-4185, 2012 Author(s): B. Drewniak, J. Song, J. Prell, V. R. Kotamarthi, and R. Jacob The potential impact of climate change on agriculture is uncertain. In addition, agriculture could influence above- and below-ground carbon storage. Development of models that represent agriculture is necessary to address these impacts. We have developed an approach to integrate agriculture representations for three crop types – maize, soybean, and spring wheat – into the coupled carbon-nitrogen version of the Community Land Model (CLM), to help address these questions. Here we present the new model, CLM-Crop, validated against observations from two AmeriFlux sites in the United States, planted with maize and soybean. Seasonal carbon fluxes compared well with field measurements. CLM-Crop yields were comparable with observations in some regions, although the generality of the crop model and its lack of technology and irrigation made direct comparison difficult. CLM-Crop was compared against the standard CLM3.5, which simulates crops as grass. The comparison showed improvement in gross primary productivity in regions where crops are the dominant vegetation cover. Crop yields and productivity were negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation. In case studies with the new crop model looking at impacts of residue management and planting date on crop yield, we found that increased residue returned to the litter pool increased crop yield, while reduced residue returns resulted in yield decreases. Using climate controls to signal planting date caused different responses in different crops. Maize and soybean had opposite reactions: when low temperature threshold resulted in early planting, maize responded with a loss of yield, but soybean yields increased. Our improvements in CLM demonstrate a new capability in the model – simulating agriculture in a realistic way, complete with fertilizer and residue management practices. Results are encouraging, with improved representation of human influences on the land surface and the potentially resulting climate impacts.

Description: A test of numerical instability and stiffness in the parametrizations of the ARPÉGE and ALADIN models Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 4233-4268, 2012 Author(s): M. Tudor Meteorological numerical weather prediction (NWP) models solve a system of partial differential equations in time and space. Semi-lagrangian advection scheme in the model dynamics allows for long time-steps. These longer time-steps can result in instabilities occurring in the model physics. A system of differential equations in which some solution components decay more rapidly than others is stiff. In this case it is stability rather than accuracy that restricts the time-step. The vertical diffusion parametrization can cause fast non-meteorological oscillations around the slowly evolving true solution (fibrillations). These are treated with an anti-fibrillation scheme. But small oscillations remain in an operational weather forecasts using ARPÉGE and ALADIN models. It is needed to test of the complete model formulation, as implemented in the operational forecast. In this paper, a simple test is designed. The test reveals if the formulation of particular physical parametrization is a stiff problem or potentially numerically unstable in combination with any other part of the model. When the test is applied to a stable scheme, the solution remains stable. But, applying the test to a potentially unstable scheme yields a solution with fibrillations of substantial amplitude. The parametrizations of a NWP model ARPÉGE were tested one by one to see which one may be the source of unstable model behaviour. The test has identified the stratiform precipitation scheme (a diagnostic Kessler type scheme) as a stiff problem, particularly the term that describes the evaporation of snow.

Description: A typical wave wake from high-speed vessels: its group structure and run-up Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 179-188, 2013 Author(s): I. Didenkulova and A. Rodin High-amplitude water waves induced by high-speed vessels are regularly observed in Tallinn Bay, the Baltic Sea, causing intense beach erosion and disturbing marine habitants in the coastal zone. Such a strong impact on the coast may be a result of a certain group structure of the wave wake. In order to understand it, here we present an experimental study of the group structure of these wakes at Pikakari beach, Tallinn Bay. The most energetic vessel waves at this location (100 m from the coast at the water depth 2.7 m) have amplitudes of about 1 m and periods of 8–10 s and cause maximum run-up heights on a beach up to 1.4 m. These waves represent frequency modulated packets where the largest and longest waves propagate ahead of other smaller amplitude and period waves. Sometimes the groups of different heights and periods can be separated even within one wave wake event. The wave heights within a wake are well described by the Weibull distribution, which has different parameters for wakes from different vessels. Wave run-up heights can also be described by Weibull distribution and its parameters can be connected to the parameters of the distribution of wave heights 100 m from the coast. Finally, the run-up of individual waves within a packet is studied. It is shown that the specific structure of frequency modulated wave packets, induced by high-speed vessels, leads to a sequence of high wave run-ups at the coast, even when the original wave heights are rather moderate. This feature can be a key to understanding the significant impact on coasts caused by fast vessels.

Description: PEATBOG: a biogeochemical model for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1599-1688, 2013 Author(s): Y. Wu and C. Blodau Elevated nitrogen deposition and climate change alter the vegetation communities and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in peatlands. To address this issue we developed a new process-oriented biogeochemical model (PEATBOG) for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands. The model consists of four submodels, which simulate: (1) daily water table depth and depth profiles of soil moisture, temperature and oxygen levels; (2) competition among three plants functional types (PFTs), production and litter production of plants; (3) decomposition of peat; and (4) production, consumption, diffusion and export of dissolved C and N species in soil water. The model is novel in the integration of the C and N cycles, the explicit spatial resolution belowground, the consistent conceptualization of movement of water and solutes, the incorporation of stoichiometric controls on elemental fluxes and a consistent conceptualization of C and N reactivity in vegetation and soil organic matter. The model was evaluated for the Mer Bleue Bog, near Ottawa, Ontario, with regards to simulation of soil moisture and temperature and the most important processes in the C and N cycles. Model sensitivity was tested for nitrogen input, precipitation, and temperature, and the choices of the most uncertain parameters were justified. A simulation of nitrogen deposition over 40 yr demonstrates the advantages of the PEATBOG model in tracking biogeochemical effects and vegetation change in the ecosystem.

Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 3: A paleoperspective based on present-day data-model comparison for oxygen stable isotopes in carbonates Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1527-1558, 2013 Author(s): T. Caley and D. M. Roche Oxygen stable isotopes ( 18 O) are among the most usual tools in paleoclimatology/paleoceanography. Simulation of oxygen stable isotopes allows testing how the past variability of these isotopes in water can be interpreted. By modelling the proxy directly in the model, the results can also be directly compared with the data. Water isotopes have been implemented in the global three-dimensional model of intermediate complexity i LOVECLIM allowing fully coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations. In this study, we present the validation of the model results for present day climate against global database for oxygen stable isotopes in carbonates. The limitation of the model together with the processes operating in the natural environment reveal the complexity of use the continental calcite 18 O signal of speleothems for a data-model comparison exercise. On the contrary, the reconstructed surface ocean calcite δ 18 O signal in i LOVECLIM does show a very good agreement with late Holocene database (foraminifers) at the global and regional scales. Our results indicate that temperature and the isotopic composition of the seawater are the main control on the fossil δ 18 O signal recorded in foraminifer shells and that depth habitat and seasonality play a role but have secondary importance. We argue that a data-model comparison for surface ocean calcite δ 18 O in past climate, such as the last glacial maximum (≈21 000 yr), could constitute an interesting tool for mapping the potential shifts of the frontal systems and circulation changes throughout time. Similarly, the potential changes in intermediate oceanic circulation systems in the past could be documented by a data (benthic foraminifers)-model comparison exercise whereas future investigations are necessary in order to quantitatively compare the results with data for the deep ocean.

Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 2: Evaluation of model results against observed δ 18 O in water samples Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1495-1525, 2013 Author(s): D. M. Roche and T. Caley The H 2 18 O stable isotope was previously introduced in the three coupled components of the Earth System Model i LOVECLIM: atmosphere, ocean and vegetation. The results of a long (5000 yr) pre-industrial equilibrium simulation are presented and evaluated against measurement of H 2 18 O abundance in present-day water for the atmospheric and oceanic components. For the atmosphere, it is found that the model reproduces the observed spatial distribution and relationships to climate variables with some merit, though limitations following our approach are highlighted. Indeed, we obtain the main gradients with a robust representation of the Rayleigh distillation but caveats appear in Antarctica and around the Mediterranean region due to model limitation. For the oceanic component, the agreement between the modelled and observed distribution of water δ 18 O is found to be very good. Mean ocean surface latitudinal gradients are faithfully reproduced as well as the mark of the main intermediate and deep water masses. This opens large prospects for the applications in paleoclimatic context.

Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 1: Implementation and verification Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1467-1494, 2013 Author(s): D. M. Roche A new 18 O stable water isotope scheme is developed for three components of the i LOVECLIM coupled climate model: atmospheric, oceanic and land surface. The equations required to reproduce the fractionation of stable water isotopes in the simplified atmospheric model ECBilt are developed consistently with the moisture scheme. Simplifications in the processes are made to account for the simplified vertical structure including only one moist layer. Implementation of these equations together with a passive tracer scheme for the ocean and a equilibrium fractionation scheme for the land surface leads to the closure of the (isotopic-)water budget in our climate system. Following the implementation, verification of the existence of usual δ 18 O to climatic relationships are performed for the Rayleigh distillation, the Dansgaard relationship and the δ 18 O–salinity relationship. Advantages and caveats of the approach taken are outlined.

Description: Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new generation ice-sheet model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1689-1741, 2013 Author(s): O. Gagliardini, T. Zwinger, F. Gillet-Chaulet, G. Durand, L. Favier, B. de Fleurian, R. Greve, M. Malinen, C. Martín, P. Råback, J. Ruokolainen, M. Sacchettini, M. Schäfer, H. Seddik, and J. Thies The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice-sheet flow models are unable to forecast the current increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea-level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice-flow models, and as a result, a significant number of new ice-sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger scale problems, earning the status of an ice-sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. We present the components already included in Elmer/Ice, its numerical performance, selected applications, as well as developments planned for the future.

Description: WRFv3.2-SPAv2: development and validation of a coupled ecosystem-atmosphere model, scaling from surface fluxes of CO 2 and energy to atmospheric profiles Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1559-1598, 2013 Author(s): T. L. Smallman, J. B. Moncrieff, and M. Williams The Weather Research & Forecasting meteorological (WRF) model has been coupled to the Soil Plant Atmosphere (SPA) terrestrial ecosystem model, to produce WRF-SPA. SPA generates realistic land-atmosphere exchanges through fully coupled hydrological, carbon and energy cycles. The addition of a land surface model (SPA) capable of modelling biospheric CO 2 exchange allows WRF-SPA to be used for investigating the feedbacks between biosphere carbon balance, meteorology and land management/land use change. We have extensively validated WRF-SPA using multi-annual observations of air temperature, turbulent fluxes, net radiation and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 at three sites, representing the dominant vegetation types in Scotland (forest, managed grassland and arable agriculture). WRF-SPA generates more realistic seasonal behaviour at the site level compared to an unmodified version of WRF, and produces realistic CO 2 exchanges. WRF-SPA is also able to realistically model atmospheric profiles of CO 2 over Scotland, spanning a 3 yr period (2004–2006), capturing both profile structure, indicating realistic transport, and magnitude indicating appropriate source sink distribution and CO 2 exchange. WRF-SPA makes use of CO 2 tracer pools and can therefore identify and quantify land surface contributions to the modelled atmospheric CO 2 signal at a specified location.

Description: MESMO 2: a mechanistic marine silica cycle and coupling to a simple terrestrial scheme Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 2999-3033, 2012 Author(s): K. Matsumoto, K. S. Tokos, A. Huston, and H. Joy-Warren Here we describe the second version of Minnesota Earth System Model for Ocean biogeochemistry (MESMO 2), an earth system model of intermediate complexity, which consists of a dynamical ocean, dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice, and energy moisture balanced atmosphere. The new version has more realistic land ice masks and is driven by seasonal winds. A major aim in version 2 is representing the marine silica cycle mechanistically in order to investigate climate-carbon feedbacks involving diatoms, a critically important class of phytoplankton in terms of carbon export production. This is achieved in part by including iron, on which phytoplankton uptake of silicic acid depends. Also, MESMO 2 is coupled to an existing terrestrial model, which allows for the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between land and the atmosphere. The coupled model, called MESMO 2E, is appropriate for more complete earth system simulations. The new version was calibrated with the goal of preserving reasonable interior ocean ventilation and various biological production rates in the ocean and land, while simulating key features of the marine silica cycle.

Description: A new method to diagnose the contribution of anthropogenic activities to temperature: temperature tagging Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3183-3215, 2012 Author(s): V. Grewe This study presents a new methodology, called temperature tagging. It keeps track of the contributions of individual processes to temperature within a climate model simulation. As a first step and as a test bed a simple box climate model is regarded. The model consists of an atmosphere, which absorbs and emits radiation and of a surface, which reflects, absorbs and emits radiation. The tagging methodology is used to investigate the impact of the atmosphere on surface temperature. Four processes are investigated in more detail and their contribution to the surface temperature quantified: (i) shortwave influx and shortwave atmospheric absorption ("sw"), (ii) longwave atmospheric absorption due to non-CO 2 greenhouse gases ("nC"), (iii) due to a base case CO 2 concentration ("bC"), and (iv) due to an enhanced CO 2 concentration ("eC"). The differential equation for the temperature in the box climate model is decomposed into four equations for the tagged temperatures. This method is applied to investigate the contribution of longwave absorption to the surface temperature (greenhouse effect), which is calculated to be 68 K. This estimate contrasts an alternative calculation of the greenhouse effect of slightly more than 30 K based on the difference of the surface temperature with and without an atmosphere. The difference of the two estimates is due to a shortwave cooling effect and a reduced contribution of the shortwave to the total downward flux: The shortwave absorption of the atmosphere results in a reduced net shortwave flux at the surface of 192 W m −2 , leading to a cooling of the surface by 14 K. Introducing an atmosphere results in a downward longwave flux at the surface due to atmospheric absorption of 189 W m −2 , which roughly equals the net shortwave flux of 192 W m −2 . This longwave flux is a result of both, the radiation due to atmospheric temperatures and its longwave absorption. Hence the longwave absorption roughly accounts for 91 W m −2 out of a total of 381 W m −2 (roughly 25%) and therefore accounts for a temperature of 68 K. In a second experiment, the CO 2 concentration is doubled, which leads to an increase in surface temperature of 1.2 K, resulting from an temperature increase due to CO 2 of 1.9 K, due to non-CO 2 greenhouse gases of 0.6 K and a cooling of 1.3 K due to a reduced importance of the solar heating for the surface and atmospheric temperatures. These two experiments show the feasibility of temperature tagging and its potential as a diagnostic for climate simulations.

Description: Implementation of the Fast-JX Photolysis scheme into the UKCA component of the MetUM chemistry climate model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3217-3260, 2012 Author(s): P. J. Telford, N. L. Abraham, A. T. Archibald, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, O. Morgenstern, F. M. O'Connor, N. A. D. Richards, and J. A. Pyle Atmospheric chemistry is driven by photolytic reactions, making their modelling a crucial component of atmospheric models. We describe the implementation and validation of Fast-JX, a state of the art model of interactive photolysis, into the MetUM chemistry climate model. This allows for interactive photolysis frequencies to be calculated in the troposphere and augments the calculation of the frequencies in the stratosphere by accounting for clouds and aerosols in addition to ozone. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new photolysis scheme we employ new methods of validating the model, including techniques for sampling the model to compare to flight track and satellite data.

Description: COSTRICE – three model online coupling using OASIS: problems and solutions Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3261-3310, 2012 Author(s): H. T. M. Ho, B. Rockel, H. Kapitza, B. Geyer, and E. Meyer The coupled system COSTRICE is developed for the first time in order to reproduce the interactions and feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean and sea-ice in a two-way online coupled model system containing three component models for regional climate simulations over Baltic Sea and North Sea regions. The regional climate model CCLM 1 is coupled to the regional ocean model TRIMNP 1 and the sea ice model CICE 1 via the coupler OASIS3. In this study, CCLM is setup with a horizontal grid mesh size of 50 km and 32 vertical atmosphere layers and driven by the 6-h ERA-interim reanalysis data as initial and boundary conditions. TRIMNP is setup with a horizontal grid mesh size of 12.8 km and 50 vertical ocean levels. CICE calculates ice in 5 categories and runs with the same horizontal resolution as TRIMNP but only over the Baltic Sea and the Kattegat Bay of the North Sea. In a two-way online coupling process, CCLM is linked to TRIMNP through sea surface temperature (SST) as lower boundary condition every 3 h and TRIMNP is driven by 1-h atmospheric state variables and fluxes of CCLM. The data exchange processes between TRIMNP and CICE as well as from CCLM to CICE take place with an interval of 3 h. The coupled model is applied in a study for climate simulations over Baltic Sea and North Sea regions in 1997. The coupled system is set up to run in parallel on the super computing system IBM-power 6 at the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). 1 See Table A1.