ALBERT

Description: Review Article: On the relation between the seismic activity and the Hurst exponent of the geomagnetic field at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2189-2194, 2013 Author(s): F. Masci and J. N. Thomas Many papers document the observation of earthquake-related precursory signatures in geomagnetic field data. However, the significance of these findings is ambiguous because the authors did not adequately take into account that these signals could have been generated by other sources, and the seismogenic origin of these signals have not been validated by comparison with independent datasets. Thus, they are not reliable examples of magnetic disturbances induced by the seismic activity. Hayakawa et al. (2004) claim that at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm the Hurst exponent of the Ultra-Low-Frequency (ULF: 0.001–10 Hz) band of the geomagnetic field varied in accord with the energy released by the seismicity. The present paper demonstrates that the behaviour of the Hurst exponent was insufficiently investigated and also misinterpreted by the authors. We clearly show that during the Izu swarm the changes of the Hurst exponent were strongly related to the level of global geomagnetic activity and not to the increase of the local seismic activity.

Description: Forest fire danger rating in complex topography – results from a case study in the Bavarian Alps in autumn 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2157-2167, 2013 Author(s): C. Schunk, C. Wastl, M. Leuchner, C. Schuster, and A. Menzel Forest fire danger rating based on sparse meteorological stations is known to be potentially misleading when assigned to larger areas of complex topography. This case study examines several fire danger indices based on data from two meteorological stations at different elevations during a major drought period. This drought was caused by a persistent high pressure system, inducing a pronounced temperature inversion and its associated thermal belt with much warmer, dryer conditions in intermediate elevations. Thus, a massive drying of fuels, leading to higher fire danger levels, and multiple fire occurrences at mid-slope positions were contrasted by moderate fire danger especially in the valleys. The ability of fire danger indices to resolve this situation was studied based on a comparison with the actual fire danger as determined from expert observations, fire occurrences and fuel moisture measurements. The results revealed that, during temperature inversion, differences in daily cycles of meteorological parameters influence fire danger and that these are not resolved by standard meteorological stations and fire danger indices (calculated on a once-a-day basis). Additional stations in higher locations or high-resolution meteorological models combined with fire danger indices accepting at least hourly input data may allow reasonable fire danger calculations under these circumstances.

Description: Preface "Landslide hazard and risk assessment at different scales" Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2169-2171, 2013 Author(s): P. Reichenbach, A. Günther, and T. Glade

Description: Influence of microphysical schemes on atmospheric water in the Weather Research and Forecasting model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4563-4601, 2013 Author(s): F. Cossu and K. Hocke This study examines how different microphysical parameterization schemes influence orographically-induced precipitation and the distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour for mid-latitude summer conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A high-resolution two-dimensional idealized simulation is used to assess the differences between the schemes in which a moist air flow is interacting with a bell-shaped 2 km high mountain. Periodic lateral boundary conditions are chosen to recirculate atmospheric water in the domain. It is found that the 13 selected microphysical schemes conserve the water in the model domain. The gain or loss of water is less than 0.81% over a simulation time interval of 61 days. The differences of the microphysical schemes in terms of the distributions of water vapour, hydrometeors and accumulated precipitation are presented and discussed. The Kessler scheme, the only scheme without ice-phase processes, shows final values of cloud liquid water 14 times greater than the other schemes. The differences among the other schemes are not as extreme, but still they differ up to 79% in water vapour, up to 10 times in hydrometeors and up to 64% in accumulated precipitation at the end of the simulation. The microphysical schemes also differ in the surface evaporation rate. The WRF single-moment 3-class scheme has the highest surface evaporation rate compensated by the highest precipitation rate. The different distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour of the microphysical schemes induce differences up to 49 W m −2 in the downwelling shortwave radiation and up to 33 W m −2 in the downwelling longwave radiation.

Description: Linking ICT and society in early warning and adaptation to hydrological extremes in mountains Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2253-2270, 2013 Author(s): C. de Jong The assessment of the societal impact of hydrological extremes is particularly important in mountain regions, since mountains can be considered both as the generators and victims of extreme events. ICT can provide a powerful tool for transmitting hydro-meteorological information to predict, prepare and adapt to such events. However, in remote regions, such as mountains, the poles, deserts and islands, preventive and adaptive measures are often restricted by data availability and lack and/or incoherence of data networks. This paper distinguishes between early warning of floods and droughts, emphasising the latter in particular in mountains and explores the possibilities of enhancing the role of society in data collection, the identification, activation and application of stakeholder knowledge and transferral of data from gauged to ungauged catchments.

Description: The environmental impact of the Puyehue–Cordon Caulle 2011 volcanic eruption on Buenos Aires Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2319-2330, 2013 Author(s): G. B. Raga, D. Baumgardner, A. G. Ulke, M. Torres Brizuela, and B. Kucienska On 4 June 2011, the volcanic complex Puyehue–Cordon Caulle located in the Chilean Andes erupted, producing a plume of gases and particles that eventually circled the Southern Hemisphere, disrupting air travel and depositing ash in large quantities. On eight occasions, the plume passed over the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, leading local authorities to close the two international airports. The eruption occurred during an on-going field campaign when measurements of the properties of atmospheric aerosol particles were being made in Buenos Aires as part of a year-long study of the concentration and optical properties of aerosol at one site in the city. The suite of instruments deployed in Buenos Aires were not tailored to measurements of volcanic ash, but were designed to characterize urban conditions. Nevertheless, these measurements were analysed for periods when vertical profiles of aerosol backscatter, made with a ceilometer, clearly showed the presence of the volcano plume over the research site and resulted in airport closure. Aerosol optical thickness derived from AERONET, MODIS and a ceilometer at our research site, all show enhanced values clearly indicating that the three platforms identified the volcanic plume simultaneously. However, a quantitative comparison of the different estimates proves difficult, suggesting large spatial and temporal variability of the plume. Our results indicate that the number concentration of condensation nuclei (CN), the mass concentration of particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PPAH) and the light absorption coefficient exceeded the average background values by more than one standard deviation during the events of volcanic plume. The anomalous concentrations of CN suggest new particle formation, presumably from the conversion of SO 2 , while the anomalous concentrations of PPAH may come from the uptake of PAHs on the plume particles or from chemical reactions on the surface of plume particles. The anomalous absorption coefficients indicate that plume particles may contain certain compounds that can absorb radiation at 550 nm. Another possible explanation consistent with the observations is the scavenging of black carbon from urban sources as the plume descends through the boundary layer to the surface. In addition, the volcanic plume influenced the local meteorology resulting in a decrease of the temperature when compared to the average temperature during days with no plume present.

Description: Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2301-2318, 2013 Author(s): A. Beckers, B. Dewals, S. Erpicum, S. Dujardin, S. Detrembleur, J. Teller, M. Pirotton, and P. Archambeau Managing flood risk in Europe is a critical issue because climate change is expected to increase flood hazard in many european countries. Beside climate change, land use evolution is also a key factor influencing future flood risk. The core contribution of this paper is a new methodology to model residential land use evolution. Based on two climate scenarios ("dry" and "wet"), the method is applied to study the evolution of flood damage by 2100 along the river Meuse. Nine urbanization scenarios were developed: three of them assume a "current trend" land use evolution, leading to a significant urban sprawl, while six others assume a dense urban development, characterized by a higher density and a higher diversity of urban functions in the urbanized areas. Using damage curves, the damage estimation was performed by combining inundation maps for the present and future 100 yr flood with present and future land use maps and specific prices. According to the dry scenario, the flood discharge is expected not to increase. In this case, land use changes increase flood damages by 1–40%, to €334–462 million in 2100. In the wet scenario, the relative increase in flood damage is 540–630%, corresponding to total damages of €2.1–2.4 billion. In this extreme scenario, the influence of climate on the overall damage is 3–8 times higher than the effect of land use change. However, for seven municipalities along the river Meuse, these two factors have a comparable influence. Consequently, in the "wet" scenario and at the level of the whole Meuse valley in the Walloon region, careful spatial planning would reduce the increase in flood damage by no more than 11–23%; but, at the level of several municipalities, more sustainable spatial planning would reduce future flood damage to a much greater degree.

Description: Estimating soil suction from electrical resistivity Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2369-2379, 2013 Author(s): E. Piegari and R. Di Maio Soil suction and resistivity strongly depend on the degree of soil saturation and, therefore, both are used for estimating water content variations. The main difference between them is that soil suction is measured using tensiometers, which give point information, while resistivity is obtained by tomography surveys, which provide distributions of resistivity values in large volumes, although with less accuracy. In this paper, we have related soil suction to electrical resistivity with the aim of obtaining information about soil suction changes in large volumes, and not only for small areas around soil suction probes. We derived analytical relationships between soil matric suction and electrical resistivity by combining the empirical laws of van Genuchten and Archie. The obtained relationships were used to evaluate maps of soil suction values in different ashy layers originating in the explosive activity of the Mt Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy). Our findings provided a further example of the high potential of geophysical methods in contributing to more effective monitoring of soil stress conditions; this is of primary importance in areas where rainfall-induced landslides occur periodically.

Description: Sulfur dioxide emissions from Papandayan and Bromo, two Indonesian volcanoes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2399-2407, 2013 Author(s): P. Bani, Surono, M. Hendrasto, H. Gunawan, and S. Primulyana Indonesia hosts 79 active volcanoes, representing 14% of all active volcanoes worldwide. However, little is known about their SO 2 contribution into the atmosphere, due to isolation and access difficulties. Existing SO 2 emission budgets for the Indonesian archipelago are based on extrapolations and inferences as there is a considerable lack of field assessments of degassing. Here, we present the first SO 2 flux measurements using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) for Papandayan and Bromo, two of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia. Results indicate mean SO 2 emission rates of 1.4 t d −1 from the fumarolic activity of Papandayan and more than 22–32 t d −1 of SO 2 released by Bromo during a declining eruptive phase. These DOAS results are very encouraging and pave the way for a better evaluation of Indonesian volcanic emissions.

Description: Interviewing insights regarding the fatalities inflicted by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2173-2187, 2013 Author(s): M. Ando, M. Ishida, Y. Hayashi, C. Mizuki, Y. Nishikawa, and Y. Tu One hundred fifty survivors of the 11 March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (Tohoku-oki earthquake) ( M w = 9.0) were interviewed to study the causes of deaths from the associated tsunami in coastal areas of Tohoku. The first official tsunami warning underestimated the height of the tsunami and 40% of the interviewees did not obtain this warning due to immediate blackouts and a lack of communication after the earthquake. Many chose to remain in dangerous locations based on the underestimated warning and their experiences with previous smaller tsunamis and/or due to misunderstanding the mitigating effects of nearby breakwaters in blocking incoming tsunamis. Some delayed their evacuation to perform family safety checks, and in many situations, the people affected misunderstood the risks involved in tsunamis. In this area, three large tsunamis have struck in the 115 yr preceding the 2011 tsunami. These tsunamis remained in the collective memory of communities, and numerous measures against future tsunami damage, such as breakwaters and tsunami evacuation drills, had been implemented. Despite these preparedness efforts, approximately 18 500 deaths and cases of missing persons occurred. The death rate with the age of 65 and above was particularly high, four times higher than that with other age groups. These interviews indicate that deaths resulted from a variety of reasons, but if residents had taken immediate action after the major ground motion stopped, most residents might have been saved. Education about the science behind earthquakes and tsunamis could help save more lives in the future.

Description: AnaWEGE: a weather generator based on analogues of atmospheric circulation Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4745-4774, 2013 Author(s): P. Yiou This paper presents a stochastic weather generator based on analogues of circulation (AnaWEGE). Analogues of circulation have been a promising paradigm to analyse climate variability and its extremes. The weather generator uses precomputed analogues of sea-level pressure over the North Atlantic. The stochastic rules of the generator constrain the continuity in time of the simulations. The generator then simulates spatially coherent time series of a climate variable, drawn from meteorological observations. The weather generator is tested for European temperatures, and for winter and summer seasons. The biases in temperature quantiles and autocorrelation are rather small compared to observed variability. The ability of simulating extremely hot summers and cold winters is also assessed.

Description: Methodological aspects of a pattern-scaling approach to produce global fields of monthly means of daily maximum and minimum temperature Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4833-4882, 2013 Author(s): S. Kremser, G. E. Bodeker, and J. Lewis A Climate Pattern-Scaling Model (CPSM) that simulates global patterns of climate change, for a prescribed emissions scenario, is described. A CPSM works by quantitatively establishing the statistical relationship between a climate variable at a specific location (e.g. daily maximum surface temperature, T max ) and one or more predictor time series (e.g. global mean surface temperature, T global ) – referred to as the "training" of the CPSM. This training uses a regression model to derive fit-coefficients that describe the statistical relationship between the predictor time series and the target climate variable time series. Once that relationship has been determined, and given the predictor time series for any greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, the change in the climate variable of interest can be reconstructed – referred to as the "application" of the CPSM. The advantage of using a CPSM rather than a typical atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) is that the predictor time series required by the CPSM can usually be generated quickly using a simple climate model (SCM) for any prescribed GHG emissions scenario and then applied to generate global fields of the climate variable of interest. The training can be performed either on historical measurements or on output from an AOGCM. Using model output from 21st century simulations has the advantage that the climate change signal is more pronounced than in historical data and therefore a more robust statistical relationship is obtained. The disadvantage of using AOGCM output is that the CPSM training might be compromised by any AOGCM inadequacies. For the purposes of exploring the various methodological aspects of the CPSM approach, AOGCM output was used in this study to train the CPSM. These investigations of the CPSM methodology focus on monthly mean fields of daily temperature extremes ( T max and T min ). Key conclusions are: (1) overall, the CPSM trained on simulations based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario is able to reproduce AOGCM simulations of T max and T min based on predictor time series from an RCP 4.5 emissions scenario; (2) access to hemisphere average land and ocean temperatures as predictors improves the variance that can be explained, particularly over the oceans; (3) regression model fit-coefficients derived from individual simulations based on the RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios agree well over most regions of the globe (the Arctic is the exception); (4) training the CPSM on concatenated time series from an ensemble of simulations does not result in fit-coefficients that explain significantly more of the variance than an approach that weights results based on single simulation fits; and (5) the inclusion of a linear time dependence in the regression model fit-coefficients improves the variance explained, primarily over the oceans.

Description: Modeling different freeze/thaw processes in heterogeneous landscapes of the Arctic polygonal tundra using an ecosystem model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4883-4932, 2013 Author(s): given_name prefix surname suffix, S. Yi, K. Wischnewski, M. Langer, S. Muster, and J. Boike Freeze/thaw (F/T) processes can be quite different under the various land surface types found in the heterogeneous polygonal tundra of the Arctic. Proper simulation of these different processes is essential for accurate prediction of the release of greenhouse gases under a warming climate scenario. In this study we have modified the dynamic organic soil version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (DOS-TEM) to simulate F/T processes beneath the polygon rims, polygon centers (with and without water), and lakes that are common features in Arctic lowland regions. We first verified the F/T algorithm in the DOS-TEM against analytical solutions, and then compared the results with in situ measurements from Samoylov Island, Siberia. In the final stage, we examined the different responses of the F/T processes for different water levels at the various land surface types. The simulations revealed that (1) the DOS-TEM was very efficient and its results compared very well with analytical solutions for idealized cases, (2) the simulations compared reasonably well with in situ measurements although there were a number of model limitations and uncertainties, (3) the DOS-TEM was able to successfully simulate the differences in F/T dynamics under different land surface types, and (4) permafrost beneath water bodies was found to respond highly sensitive to changes in water depths between 1 and 2 m. Our results indicate that water is very important in the thermal processes simulated by the DOS-TEM; the heterogeneous nature of the landscape and different water depths therefore need to be taken into account when simulating methane emission responses to a warming climate.

Description: Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great ( M w = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2279-2299, 2013 Author(s): T. R. Robinson and T. R. H. Davies The Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island has not sustained a large magnitude earthquake since ca. AD 1717. The time since this rupture is close to the average inferred recurrence interval of the fault (~300 yr). The Alpine Fault is therefore expected to generate a large magnitude earthquake in the near future. Previous ruptures of this fault are inferred to have generated M w = 8.0 or greater earthquakes and to have resulted in, amongst other geomorphic hazards, large-scale landslides and landslide dams throughout the Southern Alps. There is currently 85% probability that the Alpine Fault will cause a M w = 8.0+ earthquake within the next 100 yr. While the seismic hazard is fairly well understood, that of the consequential geomorphic activity is less well studied, and these consequences are explored herein. They are expected to include landsliding, landslide damming, dam-break flooding, debris flows, river aggradation, liquefaction, and landslide-generated lake/fiord tsunami. Using evidence from previous events within New Zealand as well as analogous international examples, we develop first-order estimates of the likely magnitude and possible locations of the geomorphic effects associated with earthquakes. Landsliding is expected to affect an area 〉 30 000 km 2 and involve 〉 1billion m 3 of material. Some tens of landslide dams are expected to occur in narrow, steep-sided gorges in the affected region. Debris flows will be generated in the first long-duration rainfall after the earthquake and will continue to occur for several years as rainfall (re)mobilises landslide material. In total more than 1000 debris flows are likely to be generated at some time after the earthquake. Aggradation of up to 3 m will cover an area 〉 125 km 2 and is likely to occur on many West Coast alluvial fans and floodplains. The impact of these effects will be felt across the entire South Island and is likely to continue for several decades.

Description: A standard test case suite for two-dimensional linear transport on the sphere: results from a collection of state-of-the-art schemes Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4983-5076, 2013 Author(s): P. H. Lauritzen, P. A. Ullrich, C. Jablonowski, P. A. Bosler, D. Calhoun, A. J. Conley, T. Enomoto, L. Dong, S. Dubey, O. Guba, A. B. Hansen, E. Kaas, J. Kent, J.-F. Lamarque, M. J. Prather, D. Reinert, V. V. Shashkin, W. C. Skamarock, B. Sørensen, M. A. Taylor, and M. A. Tolstykh Recently, a standard test case suite for 2-D linear transport on the sphere was proposed to assess important aspects of accuracy in geophysical fluid dynamics with a "minimal" set of idealized model configurations/runs/diagnostics. Here we present results from 19 state-of-the-art transport scheme formulations based on finite-difference/finite-volume methods as well as emerging (in the context of atmospheric/oceanographic sciences) Galerkin methods. Discretization grids range from traditional regular latitude-longitude grids to more isotropic domain discretizations such as icosahedral and cubed-sphere tessellations of the sphere. The schemes are evaluated using a wide range of diagnostics in idealized flow environments. Accuracy is assessed in single- and two-tracer configurations using conventional error norms as well as novel diagnostics designed for climate and climate-chemistry applications. In addition, algorithmic considerations that may be important for computational efficiency are reported on. The latter is inevitably computing platform dependent, The ensemble of results from a wide variety of schemes presented here helps shed light on the ability of the test case suite diagnostics and flow settings to discriminate between algorithms and provide insights into accuracy in the context of global atmospheric/ocean modeling. A library of benchmark results is provided to facilitate scheme intercomparison and model development. Simple software and data-sets are made available to facilitate the process of model evaluation and scheme intercomparison.

Description: On the analytic approximation of bulk collision rates of non-spherical hydrometeors Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 5077-5116, 2013 Author(s): A. Seifert, U. Blahak, and R. Buhr Analytic approximations of the binary collision rates of hydrometeors are derived for use in bulk microphysical parameterizations. Special attention is given to non-spherical hydrometeors like raindrops and snowflakes. The terminal fall velocity of these particles cannot be sufficiently well approximated by power law relations which are used in most microphysical parameterizations and therefore an improved formulation is needed. The analytic approximations of the bulk collision rates given in this paper are an alternative to look-up tables and can replace the Wisner approximation which is used in many atmospheric models.

Description: Integrating spatial, temporal, and size probabilities for the annual landslide hazard maps in the Shihmen watershed, Taiwan Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2353-2367, 2013 Author(s): C. Y. Wu and S. C. Chen Landslide spatial, temporal, and size probabilities were used to perform a landslide hazard assessment in this study. Eleven intrinsic geomorphological, and two extrinsic rainfall factors were evaluated as landslide susceptibility related factors as they related to the success rate curves, landslide ratio plots, frequency distributions of landslide and non-landslide groups, as well as probability–probability plots. Data on landslides caused by Typhoon Aere in the Shihmen watershed were selected to train the susceptibility model. The landslide area probability, based on the power law relationship between the landslide area and a noncumulative number, was analyzed using the Pearson type 5 probability density function. The exceedance probabilities of rainfall with various recurrence intervals, including 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 yr, were used to determine the temporal probabilities of the events. The study was conducted in the Shihmen watershed, which has an area of 760 km 2 and is one of the main water sources for northern Taiwan. The validation result of Typhoon Krosa demonstrated that this landslide hazard model could be used to predict the landslide probabilities. The results suggested that integration of spatial, area, and exceedance probabilities to estimate the annual probability of each slope unit is feasible. The advantage of this annual landslide probability model lies in its ability to estimate the annual landslide risk, instead of a scenario-based risk.

Description: On the puzzling feature of the silence of precursory electromagnetic emissions Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2381-2397, 2013 Author(s): K. Eftaxias, S. M. Potirakis, and T. Chelidze It has been suggested that fracture-induced MHz–kHz electromagnetic emissions (EME), which emerge from a few days up to a few hours before the main seismic shock occurrence permit a real-time monitoring of the damage process during the last stages of earthquake preparation, as it happens at the laboratory scale. Despite fairly abundant evidence, electromagnetic (EM) precursors have not been adequately accepted as credible physical phenomena. These negative views are enhanced by the fact that certain "puzzling features" are repetitively observed in candidate fracture-induced pre-seismic EME. More precisely, EM silence in all frequency bands appears before the main seismic shock occurrence, as well as during the aftershock period. Actually, the view that "acceptance of "precursive" EM signals without convincing co-seismic signals should not be expected" seems to be reasonable. In this work we focus on this point. We examine whether the aforementioned features of EM silence are really puzzling ones or, instead, reflect well-documented characteristic features of the fracture process, in terms of universal structural patterns of the fracture process, recent laboratory experiments, numerical and theoretical studies of fracture dynamics, critical phenomena, percolation theory, and micromechanics of granular materials. Our analysis shows that these features should not be considered puzzling.

Description: Ensemble initialization of the oceanic component of a coupled model through bred vectors at seasonal-to-interannual time scales Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 5189-5214, 2013 Author(s): J. Baehr and R. Piontek We evaluate the ensemble spread at seasonal-to-interannual time scales for two perturbation techniques implemented into the ocean component of a coupled model: (1) lagged initial conditions as commonly used for decadal predictions, (2) bred vectors as commonly used for weather and seasonal forecasting. We show that relative to an uninitialized reference simulation the implementation for bred vectors can improve the ensemble spread compared to lagged initialization at time scales from one months up to three years. As bred vectors have so far mostly been used at short time scales, we initially focus on the implementation of the bred vectors into the ocean component. We introduce a depth-dependent vertical rescaling norm, accounting for the vertical dependence of the variability, and extending the commonly used upper-ocean rescaling norm to the full water column. We further show that it is sufficient for the (sub-surface) ocean to breed temperature and salinity (i.e., scalar quantities), and rely on the governing physics to carry the temperature and salinity perturbations to the flow field. Using these bred vectors with a rescaling interval of 12 months, we initialize hindcast simulations and compare them to hindcast simulations initialized with lagged initial conditions. We quantify the ensemble spread by analyzing Talagrand diagrams and spread-error ratios. For both temperature and salinity, the lagged initialized ensemble is particularly under-dispersive for the first few months of predictable lead time. The ensemble initialized with bred vectors improves the spread for temperature and salinity for the 0–700 m and 1000–3500 m means, compared to the lagged ensemble at lead times of several months to one year. As the lead time increases to years, the differences between the two ensemble initialization techniques becomes more difficult to discern. While the results need to be confirmed in an initialized framework, the present analysis represents a first step towards an improved ensemble generation at the transition from seasonal-to-interannual time scales, in particular at lead times up to one year.

Description: Understanding the performance of the FLake model over the African Great Lakes Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 5141-5187, 2013 Author(s): W. Thiery, A. Martynov, F. Darchambeau, J.-P. Descy, P.-D. Plisnier, L. Sushama, and N. P. M. van Lipzig The ability of the one-dimensional lake model FLake to represent the mixolimnion temperatures for tropical conditions was tested for three locations in East Africa: Lake Kivu, Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding Automatic Weather Stations were corrected and used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles served to evaluate the model at each site. Careful forcing data correction and model configuration allowed to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and temperature structure. At Lake Kivu, mixolimnion temperatures predicted by FLake were found sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters (lake depth and water transparency) as to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may already lead to a regime switch from the correctly represented seasonal mixed layer deepening to either completely mixed (down to the model lake bottom) or permanently stratified (from ~10 m downwards) conditions. In contrast, model temperatures are found robust close to the surface, with acceptable predictions of near-surface water temperatures even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. FLake can thus be a suitable tool to parameterize tropical lake water surface temperatures within atmospheric prediction models, but may be less appropriate, in its current form, to study complex limnological processes within tropical lakes. Furthermore, a study of different initial conditions showed that for tropical lakes lacking reliable initial data, a fully mixed, artificially warm initialisation is to be preferred, but only if the model is allowed to spin up until convergence is reached. Finally, FLake was used to attribute the seasonal mixing cycle at Lake Kivu to variations in the near-surface meteorological conditions. It was found that the annual mixing down to 60 m during the main dry season is primarily due to enhanced lake evaporation and secondarily due to the decreased incoming long wave radiation, both causing a significant heat loss from the lake surface and associated mixolimnion cooling.

Description: Early warning of snow-caused disasters in pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1411-1425, 2013 Author(s): W. Wang, T. Liang, X. Huang, Q. Feng, H. Xie, X. Liu, M. Chen, and X. Wang This study develops a model for early warning of snow-caused livestock disasters on a county basis and proposes a method of qualitative risk assessment of snow disasters at 500 m resolution for pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Data used for the model development include remote sensing data, statistical data of weather, livestock, and social economy, and 45 typical snow disaster cases from 2000 to 2010. The principal component analysis (PCA) approach is used to choose 7 crucial factors that contribute over 85% of information for early warning snow disasters on the TP. They are mean annual probability of snow disaster, number of snow-covered days, livestock stocking rate, continual days of mean daily temperature below −10 °C, grassland burial index, rate of snow-covered grassland, and per livestock gross domestic product. The chosen 411 cases from 2008 to 2010 are used to validate the prediction results from the developed early warning model, with an overall accuracy of 85.64% in predicting snow disasters and no disasters. This suggests that the early warning approach developed in the study has operational potential for predicting snow disasters on the TP.

Description: How much does participatory flood management contribute to stakeholders' social capacity building? Empirical findings based on a triangulation of three evaluation approaches Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1427-1444, 2013 Author(s): M. Buchecker, S. Menzel, and R. Home Recent literature suggests that dialogic forms of risk communication are more effective to build stakeholders' hazard-related social capacities. In spite of the high theoretical expectations, there is a lack of univocal empirical evidence on the relevance of these effects. This is mainly due to the methodological limitations of the existing evaluation approaches. In our paper we aim at eliciting the contribution of participatory river revitalisation projects on stakeholders' social capacity building by triangulating the findings of three evaluation studies that were based on different approaches: a field-experimental, a qualitative long-term ex-post and a cross-sectional household survey approach. The results revealed that social learning and avoiding the loss of trust were more relevant benefits of participatory flood management than acceptance building. The results suggest that stakeholder involvements should be more explicitly designed as tools for long-term social learning.

Description: Stakeholders' issues for action during the warning process and the interpretation of forecasts' uncertainties Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1469-1479, 2013 Author(s): L. Créton-Cazanave and C. Lutoff This article considers the socio-geographical approach carried out as part of the MedUp program. It presents a study of the ways that the French "actors" manage forecast uncertainties during a flash flood warning process. In order to better understand the role of forecasts' uncertainties in decision making, we focused on the actions people took and how what they say explains their actions. The practices of actors involved in warnings for the Vidourle watershed (Gard, France), in particular, are analyzed using a practice-based approach. A set of categories of the "actors" was developed based on their descriptions of the problems they faced during the flash flood warning, independent of their socio-professional status and position in the warning chain. Five actor profiles result from this: Translators, Managers, Committed, Navigators and Vulnerable. For each profile, specific action contexts are defined, determining how each deals with uncertainty.

Description: Augmenting Austrian flood management practices through geospatial predictive analytics: a study in Carinthia Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 1445-1455, 2013 Author(s): S. M. Ward and G. Paulus The Danube River basin has long been the location of significant flooding problems across central Europe. The last decade has seen a sharp increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of these flood events, unveiling a dire need for enhanced flood management policy and tools in the region. Located in the southern portion of Austria, the state of Carinthia has experienced a significant volume of intense flood impacts over the last decade. Although the Austrian government has acknowledged these issues, their remedial actions have been primarily structural to date. Continued focus on controlling the natural environment through infrastructure while disregarding the need to consider alternative forms of assessing flood exposure will only act as a provisional solution to this inescapable risk. In an attempt to remedy this flaw, this paper highlights the application of geospatial predictive analytics and spatial recovery index as a proxy for community resilience, as well as the cultural challenges associated with the application of foreign models within an Austrian environment.

Description: CDRD and PNPR satellite passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithms: EuroTRMM/EURAINSAT origins and H-SAF operations Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 887-912, 2013 Author(s): A. Mugnai, E. A. Smith, G. J. Tripoli, B. Bizzarri, D. Casella, S. Dietrich, F. Di Paola, G. Panegrossi, and P. Sanò Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) is a EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) program, designed to deliver satellite products of hydrological interest (precipitation, soil moisture and snow parameters) over the European and Mediterranean region to research and operations users worldwide. Six satellite precipitation algorithms and concomitant precipitation products are the responsibility of various agencies in Italy. Two of these algorithms have been designed for maximum accuracy by restricting their inputs to measurements from conical and cross-track scanning passive microwave (PMW) radiometers mounted on various low Earth orbiting satellites. They have been developed at the Italian National Research Council/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate in Rome (CNR/ISAC-Rome), and are providing operational retrievals of surface rain rate and its phase properties. Each of these algorithms is physically based, however, the first of these, referred to as the Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database (CDRD) algorithm, uses a Bayesian-based solution solver, while the second, referred to as the PMW Neural-net Precipitation Retrieval (PNPR) algorithm, uses a neural network-based solution solver. Herein we first provide an overview of the two initial EU research and applications programs that motivated their initial development, EuroTRMM and EURAINSAT (European Satellite Rainfall Analysis and Monitoring at the Geostationary Scale), and the current H-SAF program that provides the framework for their operational use and continued development. We stress the relevance of the CDRD and PNPR algorithms and their precipitation products in helping secure the goals of H-SAF's scientific and operations agenda, the former helpful as a secondary calibration reference to other algorithms in H-SAF's complete mix of algorithms. Descriptions of the algorithms' designs are provided including a few examples of their performance. This aspect of the development of the two algorithms is placed in the context of what we refer to as the TRMM era, which is the era denoting the active and ongoing period of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) that helped inspire their original development. In 2015, the ISAC-Rome precipitation algorithms will undergo a transformation beginning with the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, particularly the GPM Core Satellite technologies. A few years afterward, the first pair of imaging and sounding Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satellites will be launched, providing additional technological advances. Various of the opportunities presented by the GPM Core and MTG satellites for improving the current CDRD and PNPR precipitation retrieval algorithms, as well as extending their product capability, are discussed.

Description: The mid-Pliocene climate simulated by FGOALS-g2 Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 2403-2428, 2013 Author(s): W. Zheng, Z. Zhang, L. Chen, and Y. Yu Within the framework of Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), the mid-Pliocene (3.264–3.025 Ma) climate simulated by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model grid-point version 2 (FGOALS-g2) are analyzed in this study. Results show that the model reproduces the large-scale features of the global warming over the land and ocean. The simulated mid-Pliocene global annual mean surface air temperature (TAS) and sea surface temperature (SST) are 4.17 and 2.62°C warmer than the pre-Industrial simulation, respectively. In particular, the feature of larger warming over mid-high latitudes is well captured. In the simulated warm mid-Pliocene climate, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) become weaker.

Description: The potential of an observational data set for calibration of a computationally expensive computer model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 2369-2401, 2013 Author(s): D. J. McNeall, P. G. Challenor, J. R. Gattiker, and E. J. Stone We measure the potential of an observational data set to constrain a set of inputs to a complex and computationally expensive computer model. We use each member in turn of an ensemble of output from a computationally expensive model, corresponding to some observable part of a modelled system, as a proxy for an observational data set. We argue that our ability to constrain uncertain parameter inputs to a model using its own output as data, provides a maximum bound for our ability to constrain the model inputs using observations of the real system. The ensemble provides a set of known parameter input and model output pairs, which we use to build a computationally efficient statistical proxy for the full computer model, termed an emulator. We use the emulator to find and rule out ''implausible" values for the inputs of held-out ensemble members, given the computer model output. As we know the true values of the inputs for the ensemble, we can compare our constraint of the model inputs with the true value of the input for any ensemble member. Measures of the quality of constraint have the potential to inform strategy for data collection campaigns, before any real-world data is collected, as well as acting as an effective sensitivity analysis. We use an ensemble of the ice sheet model Glimmer to demonstrate our measures of quality of constraint. The ensemble has 250 model runs with 5 uncertain input parameters, and an output variable representing the pattern of the thickness of ice over Greenland. We have an observation of historical ice sheet thickness that directly matches the output variable, and offers an opportunity to constrain the model. We show that different ways of summarising our output variable (ice volume, ice surface area and maximum ice thickness) offer different potential constraints on individual input parameters. We show that combining the observational data gives increased power to constrain the model. We investigate the impact of uncertainty in observations or in model biases on our measures, showing that even a modest uncertainty can seriously degrade the potential of the observational data to constrain the model.

Description: On searching for optimized set of physical parameterization schemes in a multi-physics land surface process model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4511-4530, 2013 Author(s): S. Hong, X. Yu, S. K. Park, Y.-S. Choi, and B. Myoung Optimization of land surface models has been very challenging due to the increasing complexity of such models. Typical parameter calibration techniques often limit the solution of the spatiotemporal discrepancy in the modeling performance levels especially for regional applications. Thus, in this study, an attempt was made to perform scheme-based model optimization by designing a framework for coupling a micro-genetic algorithm (micro-GA) with the Noah land surface model that has multiple physics options (Noah-MP). Micro-GA controls the scheme selections in 10 different land surface parameterization fields in Noah-MP in order to extract the optimal scheme combination for a certain region. This coupling framework was successfully applied to the optimization of the surface water partitioning in the Korean Peninsula, promising not only the effectiveness of the scheme-based optimization but also model diagnosis capability by exploring the scheme sensitivity during the micro-GA evolution process. Then, the method was applied to four different regions in East Asia that have different climatic characteristics. The results indicate that (1) the optimal scheme combinations vary with the regions, (2) schemes related to the surface water partitioning are important for the modeling accuracy, and (3) specialized post-parameter optimization for each region may be required.

Description: Atmospheric inverse modeling with known physical bounds: an example from trace gas emissions Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4531-4562, 2013 Author(s): S. M. Miller, A. M. Michalak, and P. J. Levi Many inverse problems in the atmospheric sciences involve parameters with known physical constraints. Examples include non-negativity (e.g., emissions of some urban air pollutants) or upward limits implied by reaction or solubility constants. However, probabilistic inverse modeling approaches based on Gaussian assumptions cannot incorporate such bounds and thus often produce unrealistic results. The atmospheric literature lacks consensus on the best means to overcome this problem, and existing atmospheric studies rely on a limited number of the possible methods with little examination of the relative merits of each. This paper investigates the applicability of several approaches to bounded inverse problems and is also the first application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to estimation of atmospheric trace gas fluxes. The approaches discussed here are broadly applicable. A common method of data transformations is found to unrealistically skew estimates for the examined example application. The method of Lagrange multipliers and two MCMC methods yield more realistic and accurate results. In general, the examined MCMC approaches produce the most realistic result but can require substantial computational time. Lagrange multipliers offer an appealing alternative for large, computationally intensive problems when exact uncertainty bounds are less central to the analysis. A synthetic data inversion of US anthropogenic methane emissions illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of each approach.

Description: A database and tool for boundary conditions for regional air quality modeling: description and evaluation Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4665-4704, 2013 Author(s): B. H. Henderson, F. Akhtar, H. O. T. Pye, S. L. Napelenok, and W. T. Hutzell Transported air pollutants receive increasing attention as regulations tighten and global concentrations increase. The need to represent international transport in regional air quality assessments requires improved representation of boundary concentrations. Currently available observations are too sparse vertically to provide boundary information, particularly for ozone precursors, but global simulations can be used to generate spatially and temporally varying Lateral Boundary Conditions (LBC). This study presents a public database of global simulations designed and evaluated for use as LBC for air quality models (AQMs). The database covers the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the years 2000–2010 and contains hourly varying concentrations of ozone, aerosols, and their precursors. The database is complimented by a tool for configuring the global results as inputs to regional scale models (e.g., Community Multiscale Air Quality or Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions). This study also presents an example application based on the CONUS domain, which is evaluated against satellite retrieved ozone vertical profiles. The results show performance is largely within uncertainty estimates for the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) with some exceptions. The major difference shows a high bias in the upper troposphere along the southern boundary in January. This publication documents the global simulation database, the tool for conversion to LBC, and the fidelity of concentrations on the boundaries. This documentation is intended to support applications that require representation of long-range transport of air pollutants.

Description: Effects of vegetation structure on biomass accumulation in a Balanced Optimality Structure Vegetation Model (BOSVM v1.0) Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4603-4663, 2013 Author(s): Z. Yin, S. C. Dekker, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, and H. A. Dijkstra A myriad of interactions exist between vegetation and local climate for arid and semi-arid regions. Vegetation function, structure and individual behavior have large impacts on carbon-water-energy balances, which consequently influence local climate variability that, in turn, feeds back to the vegetation. In this study, a conceptual vegetation structure scheme is formulated and tested in a new carbon-water-energy coupled model to explore the importance of vegetation structure and vegetation adaptation to water stress on equilibrium biomass states. Surface energy, water and carbon fluxes are simulated for a range of vegetation structures across a precipitation gradient in West Africa and optimal vegetation structures that maximizes biomass for each precipitation regime are determined. Two different strategies of vegetation adaptation to water stress are included. Under dry conditions vegetation tries to maximize the Water Use Efficiency and Leaf Area Index as it tries to maximize carbon gain. However, an important negative feedback mechanism is found as the vegetation also tries to minimize its cover to optimize the surrounding bare ground area from which water can be extracted, thereby forming patches of vertical vegetation. Under larger precipitation, a positive feedback mechanism is found in which vegetation tries to maximize its cover as it then can reduce water loss from bare soil while having maximum carbon gain due to a large Leaf Area Index. The competition between vegetation and bare soil determines a transition between a "survival" state to a "growing" state.

Description: Influence of management of variables, sampling zones and land units on LR analysis for landslide spatial prevision Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2209-2221, 2013 Author(s): R. Greco and M. Sorriso-Valvo Several authors, according to different methodological approaches, have employed logistic Regression (LR), a multivariate statistical analysis adopted to assess the spatial probability of landslide, even though its fundamental principles have remained unaltered. This study aims at assessing the influence of some of these methodological approaches on the performance of LR, through a series of sensitivity analyses developed over a test area of about 300 km 2 in Calabria (southern Italy). In particular, four types of sampling (1 – the whole study area; 2 – transects running parallel to the general slope direction of the study area with a total surface of about 1/3 of the whole study area; 3 – buffers surrounding the phenomena with a 1/1 ratio between the stable and the unstable area; 4 – buffers surrounding the phenomena with a 1/2 ratio between the stable and the unstable area), two variable coding modes (1 – grouped variables; 2 – binary variables), and two types of elementary land (1 – cells units; 2 – slope units) units have been tested. The obtained results must be considered as statistically relevant in all cases (Aroc values 〉 70%), thus confirming the soundness of the LR analysis which maintains high predictive capacities notwithstanding the features of input data. As for the area under investigation, the best performing methodological choices are the following: (i) transects produced the best results (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 93.4%; Aroc = 79.5%); (ii) as for sampling modalities, binary variables (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 98.3%; Aroc = 80.7%) provide better performance than ordinated variables; (iii) as for the choice of elementary land units, slope units (0 〈 P(y) ≤ 100%; Aroc = 84.2%) have obtained better results than cells matrix.

Description: Risk evolution: how can changes in the built environment influence the potential loss of natural hazards? Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2195-2207, 2013 Author(s): B. Schwendtner, M. Papathoma-Köhle, and T. Glade Alpine areas often suffer significant loss and damage due to a range of natural processes such as landslides, debris flows, snow avalanches or floods. Sealing of the soil surface, settling in endangered areas and enhanced human intervention in the natural settings, as well as socio-economic changes, increase the risk and susceptibility of built environments to natural hazards and the costs of the consequences in a spatio-temporal context. The present study examines the loss estimation of a particular debris flow event for different points in time. The event occurred in August 1987, affected the municipality Martell in South Tyrol, Italy, and resulted in a total cost of € 25 million. The approach presented in this paper focuses on the changes of the land use and settlement expansion in the area since 1954 and attempts to assess the monetary impact of a similar event, which could have happened before (1954, 1985) or following the actual event (1992, 1999, 2006). The method applied is based on the use of a vulnerability curve which was developed for the specific area, based on the documentation of the damage of the 1987 event. Based on this curve, a loss estimation was carried out in order to visualise the risk evolution in a period of 52 yr (1954 to 2006). The results show a significant increase in the extent of the built environment (number, size and value of buildings) which consequently reflect an increase of the potential overall loss through the years. The method can be used in order to assess the potential loss for future scenarios based on different spatial patterns of the built environment.

Description: Wind shear over the Nice Côte d'Azur airport: case studies Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2223-2238, 2013 Author(s): A. Boilley and J.-F. Mahfouf The Nice Côte d'Azur international airport is subject to horizontal low-level wind shears. Detecting and predicting these hazards is a major concern for aircraft security. A measurement campaign took place over the Nice airport in 2009 including 4 anemometers, 1 wind lidar and 1 wind profiler. Two wind shear events were observed during this measurement campaign. Numerical simulations were carried out with Meso-NH in a configuration compatible with near-real time applications to determine the ability of the numerical model to predict these events and to study the meteorological situations generating an horizontal wind shear. A comparison between numerical simulation and the observation dataset is conducted in this paper.

Description: A distributed computing approach to improve the performance of the Parallel Ocean Program (v2.1) Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4705-4744, 2013 Author(s): B. van Werkhoven, J. Maassen, M. Kliphuis, H. A. Dijkstra, S. E. Brunnabend, M. van Meersbergen, F. J. Seinstra, and H. E. Bal The Parallel Ocean Program (POP) is used in many strongly eddying ocean circulation simulations. Ideally one would like to do thousand-year long simulations, but the current performance of POP prohibits this type of simulations. In this work, using a new distributed computing approach, two innovations to improve the performance of POP are presented. The first is a new block partitioning scheme for the optimization of the load balancing of POP such that it can be run efficiently in a multi-platform setting. The second is an implementation of part of the POP model code on Graphics Processing Units. We show that the combination of both innovations leads to a substantial performance increase also when running POP simultaneously over multiple computational platforms.

Description: Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2239-2251, 2013 Author(s): M. L. R. Liberato, J. G. Pinto, R. M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, and I. F. Trigo In winter of 2009–2010 south-western Europe was hit by several destructive windstorms. The most important was Xynthia (26–28 February 2010), which caused 64 reported casualties and was classified as the 2nd most expensive natural hazard event for 2010 in terms of economic losses. In this work we assess the synoptic evolution, dynamical characteristics and the main impacts of storm Xynthia, whose genesis, development and path were very uncommon. Wind speed gusts observed at more than 500 stations across Europe are evaluated as well as the wind gust field obtained with a regional climate model simulation for the entire North Atlantic and European area. Storm Xynthia was first identified on 25 February around 30° N, 50° W over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Its genesis occurred on a region characterized by warm and moist air under the influence of a strong upper level wave embedded in the westerlies. Xynthia followed an unusual SW–NE path towards Iberia, France and central Europe. The role of moist air masses on the explosive development of Xynthia is analysed by considering the evaporative sources. A lagrangian model is used to identify the moisture sources, sinks and moisture transport associated with the cyclone during its development phase. The main supply of moisture is located over an elongated region of the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean with anomalously high SST, confirming that the explosive development of storm Xynthia had a significant contribution from the subtropics.

Description: Inherently mass-conservative version of the semi-Lagrangian Absolute Vorticity (SL-AV) atmospheric model dynamical core Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4809-4832, 2013 Author(s): V. V. Shashkin and M. A. Tolstykh The semi-Lagrangian Absolute Vorticity (SL-AV) atmospheric model is the global semi-Lagrangian hydrostatic model used for operational medium-range and seasonal forecasts at Hydrometeorological centre of Russia. The distinct feature of SL-AV dynamical core is the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian vorticity-divergence formulation on the unstaggered grid. Semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian approach allows for long time steps while violates the global and local mass-conservation. In particular, the total mass in simulations with semi-Lagrangian models can drift significantly if no aposteriori mass-fixing algorithms are applied. However, the global mass-fixing algorithms degrade the local mass conservation. The inherently mass-conservative version of SL-AV model dynamical core presented in the article ensures global and local mass conservation without mass-fixing algorithms. The mass conservation is achieved with the introduction of the finite-volume semi-Lagrangian discretization for continuity equation based on the 3-D extension of the conservative cascade semi-Lagrangian transport scheme (CCS). The numerical experiments show that the presented new version of SL-AV dynamical core combines the accuracy and stability of the standard SL-AV dynamical core with the mass-conservation properties. The results of the mountain induced Rossby wave test and baroclinic instability test for mass-conservative dynamical core are found to be in agreement with the results available in literature.

Description: A fast input/output library for high resolution climate models Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4775-4807, 2013 Author(s): X. Huang, W. Wang, H. Fu, G. Yang, B. Wang, and C. Zhang We describe the design and implementation of Climate Fast Input/Output (CFIO), a fast input/output (I/O) library for high resolution climate models. CFIO provides a simple method for modelers to overlap the I/O phase with the computing phase automatically, so as to shorten the running time of numerical simulations. To minimize the code modifications required for porting, CFIO provides similar interfaces and features to Parallel network Common Data Form (PnetCDF), which is one of the most widely used I/O libraries in climate models. We deployed CFIO in three high resolution climate models, including two ocean models (POP and LICOM) and one sea ice model (CICE). The experimental results show that CFIO improves the performance of climate models significantly versus the original serial I/O approach. When running with CFIO at 0.1° resolution with about 1000 CPU cores, we managed to reduce the running time by factors of 7.9, 4.6 and 2.0 for POP, CICE, and LICOM respectively. We also compared the performance of CFIO against PnetCDF in different scenarios. For scenarios with both data output operations and computations, CFIO decreases the I/O overhead by a factor of 5.1 compared to PnetCDF.

Description: Seismic behavior of buried pipelines constructed by design criteria and construction specifications of both Korea and the US Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2271-2278, 2013 Author(s): S.-S. Jeon Earthquake loss estimation systems in the US, for example HAZUS (Hazard in US), have been established based on sufficient damage records for the purpose of prevention and efficient response to earthquake hazards; however, in Korea, insufficient data sets of earthquakes and damage records are currently available. In this study, the earthquake damages to pipelines in Korea using the pipeline repair rate (RR) recommended in HAZUS was reevaluated with the degree of confidence when RR is used without modification for the damage estimation of pipelines in Korea. The numerical analyses using a commercial finite element model, ABAQUS, were carried out to compare stresses and strains mobilized in both brittle and ductile pipelines constructed by the design criteria and construction specifications of both Korea and the US. These pipelines were embedded in dense sand overlying three different in situ soils (clay, sand, and gravel) subjected to earthquake excitations with peak ground accelerations (PGAs) of 0.2 to 1.2 g and 1994 Northridge and 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake loadings. The numerical results show that differences in the stress and strain rates are less than 10%. This implies that RR in HAZUS can be used for earthquake damage estimation of pipelines with a 90% confidence level in Korea.

Description: Application and evaluation of McICA scheme with new radiation code in BCC_AGCM2.0.1 Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4933-4982, 2013 Author(s): given_name prefix surname suffix, H. Zhang, X. Jing, and J. Li This research incorporates the Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation (McICA) scheme with the correlated k-distribution BCC-RAD radiation model into the climate model BCC_AGCM2.0.1 and examines the impacts on modeled climate through several simulations with variations in cloud structures. Results from experiments with consistent sub-grid cloud structures show that both clear-sky radiation fluxes and cloud radiative forcings (CRFs) calculated by the new scheme are mostly improved relative to those calculated from the original one. The modeled atmospheric temperature and specific humidity are also improved due to changes in the radiative heating rates. The vertical overlap of fractional clouds and horizontal distribution of cloud condensation are important for computing CRFs. The maximum changes in seasonal CRF using the general overlap assumption (GenO) with different decorrelation depths ( L cf ) are larger than 10 and 20 Wm 2 for longwave (LW) CRF and shortwave (SW) CRF, respectively, mostly located in the Tropics and mid-latitude storm tracks. Larger (smaller) L cf in the Tropics (mid-latitude storm tracks) yield better cloud fraction and CRF compared with observations. The inclusion of an observation-based horizontal inhomogeneity of cloud condensation has a distinct impact on LW CRF and SW CRF, with global means of ∼1.2 Wm −2 and ∼3.7 Wm −2 at the top of atmosphere, respectively, making these much closer to observations. These results prove the reliability of the new model configuration to be used in BCC_AGCM2.0.1 for climate simulations, and also indicate that more detailed real-world information on cloud structures should be obtained to constrain cloud settings in McICA in the future.

Description: Seismic zones for Azores based on statistical criteria Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2337-2351, 2013 Author(s): M. C. M. Rodrigues and C. S. Oliveira The objective of this paper is to define seismic zones in the Azores based on statistical criteria. These seismic zones will likely be used in seismic simulations of occurrences in the Azores Archipelago. The data used in this work cover the time period from 1915 to 2011. The Azores region was divided into 1° × 1° area units, for which the seismicity and the maximum magnitudes of events were calculated. The seismicity, the largest earthquakes recorded and the geological characteristics of the region were used to group these area units because similar seismic zones must delineate areas with homogeneous seismic characteristics. We have identified seven seismic zones. To verify that the defined areas differ statistically, we considered the following dissimilarity measures (variables): time, size and seismic conditions – the number of seismic events with specific characteristics. Statistical tests, particularly goodness-of-fit tests, allowed us to conclude that, considering these three variables, the seven earthquake zones defined here are statistically distinct.

Description: Sub-ionospheric very low frequency perturbations associated with the 12 May 2008 M = 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2331-2336, 2013 Author(s): A. K. Maurya, R. Singh, B. Veenadhari, S. Kumar, and A. K. Singh The present study reports the VLF (very low frequency) sub-ionospheric perturbations observed on transmitter JJI (22.1 kHz), Japan, received at the Indian low-latitude station, Allahabad ( geographic lat. 25.41° N, long 81.93° E), due to Wenchuan earthquake (EQ) that occurred on 12 May 2008 with the magnitude 7.9 and at the depth of 19 km in Sichuan province of Southwest China, located at 31.0° N, 103.4° E. The nighttime amplitude fluctuation analysis gives a significant increase in fluctuation and dispersion two days before EQ, when it crosses 2σ criterion. However, there was no significant change observed in the amplitude trend. The diurnal amplitude variation shows a significant increase in the amplitude of JJI signal on 11 and 12 May 2008. The gravity wave channel and changes in the electric field associated with this EQ seem to be the potential factors of the observed nighttime amplitude fluctuation, dispersion, and significant increase in the signal strength.

Description: A regional climate modelling projection ensemble experiment – NARCliM Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 5117-5139, 2013 Author(s): J. P. Evans, F. Ji, C. Lee, P. Smith, D. Argüeso, and L. Fita Including the impacts of climate change in decision making and planning processes is a challenge facing many regional governments including the New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) governments in Australia. NARCliM (NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling project) is a regional climate modelling project that aims to provide a comprehensive and consistent set of climate projections that can be used by all relevant government departments when considering climate change. To maximise end user engagement and ensure outputs are relevant to the planning process, a series of stakeholder workshops were run to define key aspects of the model experiment including spatial resolution, time slices, and output variables. As with all such experiments, practical considerations limit the number of ensembles members that can be simulated such that choices must be made concerning which Global Climate Models (GCMs) to downscale from, and which Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to downscale with. Here a methodology for making these choices is proposed that aims to sample the uncertainty in both GCMs and RCMs, as well as spanning the range of future climate projections present in the full GCM ensemble. The created ensemble provides a more robust view of future regional climate changes.

Description: The ICON-1.2 hydrostatic atmospheric dynamical core on triangular grids – Part 1: Formulation and performance of the baseline version Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 59-119, 2013 Author(s): H. Wan, M. A. Giorgetta, G. Zängl, M. Restelli, D. Majewski, L. Bonaventura, K. Fröhlich, D. Reinert, P. Rípodas, and L. Kornblueh A hydrostatic atmospheric dynamical core is developed for the purpose of global climate modelling. The model applies finite-difference methods to discretize the primitive equations on spherical icosahedral grids, using C-type staggering with triangles as control volumes for mass. This paper documents the numerical methods employed in the baseline version of the model, discusses their properties, and presents results from various idealized test cases. The evaluation shows that the new dynamical core is able to correctly represent the evolution of baroclinic eddies in the atmosphere as well as their role in heat and momentum transport. The simulations compare well with the reference solutions, and show a clear trend of convergence as the horizontal resolution increases. First results from two aqua-planet simulations are also presented, in which the equatorial wave spectra derived from tropical precipitation agree well with those simulated by a spectral transform model. The new dynamical core thus provides a good basis for further model development. Certain aspects of the model formulation that need further investigation and improvement are also pointed out.

Description: The GREENROOF module (v7.3) for modelling green roof hydrological and energetic performances within TEB Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1127-1172, 2013 Author(s): C. S. de Munck, A. Lemonsu, R. Bouzouidja, V. Masson, and R. Claverie The need to prepare cities for climate change adaptation requests the urban modeller community to implement within their models sustainable adaptation strategies to be tested against specific city morphologies and scenarios. Greening city roofs is part of these strategies. In this context, a GREENROOF module for TEB (Town Energy Balance) has been developed to model the interactions between buildings and green roof systems at the scale of the city. This module allows one to describe an extensive green roof composed of four functional layers (vegetation – grasses or sedums, substrate, retention/drainage layers and artificial roof layers) and to model vegetation-atmosphere fluxes of heat, water and momentum, as well as the hydrological and thermal fluxes throughout the substrate and the drainage layers, and the thermal coupling with the structural building envelope. TEB-GREENROOF (v7.3) is therefore able to represent the impact of climate forcings on the functioning of the green roof vegetation and, conversely, the influence of the green roof on the local climate. A calibration exercise to adjust the model to the peculiar hydrological characteristics of the substrates and drainage layers commonly found on green roofs is performed for a case study located in Nancy (France) which consists of an extensive green roof with sedums. Model results for the optimum hydrological calibration show a good dynamics for the substrate water content which is nevertheless under-estimated but without impacting too much the green roof temperatures since they present a good agreement with observations. These results are encouraging with regard to modelling the impact of green roofs on thermal indoor comfort and energy consumption at the scale of cities, for which GREENROOF will be running with the building energy version of TEB, TEB-BEM. Moreover, the green roof studied for GREENROOF evaluation being a city-widespread type of extensive green roof, the hydrological characteristics derived through the evaluation exercise will be used as the standard configuration to model extensive green roofs at the scale of cities.

Description: A survey of strong high-frequency sea level oscillations along the US East Coast between 2006 and 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 473-482, 2013 Author(s): S. Pasquet, I. Vilibić, and J. Šepić A systematic survey of high-frequency sea level oscillations (

Description: A fuzzy decision making system for building damage map creation using high resolution satellite imagery Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 455-472, 2013 Author(s): H. Rastiveis, F. Samadzadegan, and P. Reinartz Recent studies have shown high resolution satellite imagery to be a powerful data source for post-earthquake damage assessment of buildings. Manual interpretation of these images, while being a reliable method for finding damaged buildings, is a subjective and time-consuming endeavor, rendering it unviable at times of emergency. The present research, proposes a new state-of-the-art method for automatic damage assessment of buildings using high resolution satellite imagery. In this method, at the first step a set of pre-processing algorithms are performed on the images. Then, extracting a candidate building from both pre- and post-event images, the intact roof part after an earthquake is found. Afterwards, by considering the shape and other structural properties of this roof part with its pre-event condition in a fuzzy inference system, the rate of damage for each candidate building is estimated. The results obtained from evaluation of this algorithm using QuickBird images of the December 2003 Bam, Iran, earthquake prove the ability of this method for post-earthquake damage assessment of buildings.

Description: The chemistry CATT–BRAMS model (CCATT–BRAMS 4.5): a regional atmospheric model system for integrated air quality and weather forecasting and research Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1173-1222, 2013 Author(s): K. M. Longo, S. R. Freitas, M. Pirre, V. Marécal, L. F. Rodrigues, J. Panetta, M. F. Alonso, N. E. Rosário, D. S. Moreira, M. S. Gácita, J. Arteta, R. Fonseca, R. Stockler, D. M. Katsurayama, A. Fazenda, and M. Bela The Coupled Chemistry Aerosol-Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CCATT–BRAMS, version 4.5) is an online regional chemical transport model designed for local and regional studies of atmospheric chemistry from surface to the lower stratosphere suitable both for operational and research purposes. It includes gaseous/aqueous chemistry, photochemistry, scavenging and dry deposition. The CCATT–BRAMS model takes advantages of the BRAMS specific development for the tropics/subtropics and of the recent availability of preprocessing tools for chemical mechanisms and of fast codes for photolysis rates. BRAMS includes state-of-the-art physical parameterizations and dynamic formulations to simulate atmospheric circulations of scales down to meters. The online coupling between meteorology and chemistry allows the system to be used for simultaneous atmospheric weather and chemical composition forecasts as well as potential feedbacks between them. The entire system comprises three preprocessing software tools for chemical mechanism (which are user defined), aerosol and trace gases emission fields and atmospheric and chemistry fields for initial and boundary conditions. In this paper, the model description is provided along evaluations performed using observational data obtained from ground-based stations, instruments aboard of aircrafts and retrieval from space remote sensing. The evaluation takes into account model application on different scales from megacities and Amazon Basin up to intercontinental region of the Southern Hemisphere.

Description: Parallel algorithms for planar and spherical Delaunay construction with an application to centroidal Voronoi tessellations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1427-1466, 2013 Author(s): D. W. Jacobsen, M. Gunzburger, T. Ringler, J. Burkardt, and J. Peterson A new algorithm, featuring overlapping domain decompositions, for the parallel construction of Delaunay and Voronoi tessellations is developed. Overlapping allows for the seamless stitching of the partial Delaunay tessellations constructed by individual processors. The algorithm is then modified, by the addition of stereographic projections, to handle the parallel construction of spherical Delaunay and Voronoi tessellations. The algorithms are then embedded into algorithms for the parallel construction of planar and spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations that require multiple constructions of Delaunay tessellations. Computational tests are used to demonstrate the efficiency and scalability of the algorithms for spherical Delaunay and centroidal Voronoi tessellations. Compared to serial versions of the algorithm and to the STRIPACK-based approaches, the new parallel algorithm results in significant speedups for the construction of spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations.

Description: 19 May 2011 Kütahya – Simav earthquake and evaluation of existing sample RC buildings according to the TEC-2007 criteria Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 505-522, 2013 Author(s): M. H. Arslan, M. Olgun, M. A. Köroğlu, I. H. Erkan, A. Köken, and O. Tan This study examines the damage caused to reinforced concrete structures by the 2011 earthquake that occurred in Simav, Turkey. The study briefly reports on post-earthquake field observations, tectonic characteristics of the earthquake area, geotechnical characteristics of the field, and seismic characteristics of the earthquake. The main part of the study comprises a field study, material experiments, and performance analyses of two reinforced concrete buildings that survived the earthquake with medium level damage. The building performance was calculated and assessed according to the Turkish Earthquake Code requirements for existing building stock, and recommendations were made based on the findings.

Description: Tsunami damping by mangrove forest: a laboratory study using parameterized trees Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 483-503, 2013 Author(s): A. Strusińska-Correia, S. Husrin, and H. Oumeraci Tsunami attenuation by coastal vegetation was examined under laboratory conditions for mature mangroves Rhizophora sp. The developed novel tree parameterization concept, accounting for both bio-mechanical and structural tree properties, allowed to substitute the complex tree structure by a simplified tree model of identical hydraulic resistance. The most representative parameterized mangrove model was selected among the tested models with different frontal area and root density, based on hydraulic test results. The selected parameterized tree models were arranged in a forest model of different width and further tested systematically under varying incident tsunami conditions (solitary waves and tsunami bores). The damping performance of the forest models under these two flow regimes was compared in terms of wave height and force envelopes, wave transmission coefficient as well as drag and inertia coefficients. Unlike the previous studies, the results indicate a significant contribution of the foreshore topography to solitary wave energy reduction through wave breaking in comparison to that attributed to the forest itself. A similar rate of tsunami transmission (ca. 20%) was achieved for both flow conditions (solitary waves and tsunami bores) and the widest forest (75 m in prototype) investigated. Drag coefficient C D attributed to the solitary waves tends to be constant ( C D = 1.5) over the investigated range of the Reynolds number.

Description: PEATBOG: a biogeochemical model for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1599-1688, 2013 Author(s): Y. Wu and C. Blodau Elevated nitrogen deposition and climate change alter the vegetation communities and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in peatlands. To address this issue we developed a new process-oriented biogeochemical model (PEATBOG) for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands. The model consists of four submodels, which simulate: (1) daily water table depth and depth profiles of soil moisture, temperature and oxygen levels; (2) competition among three plants functional types (PFTs), production and litter production of plants; (3) decomposition of peat; and (4) production, consumption, diffusion and export of dissolved C and N species in soil water. The model is novel in the integration of the C and N cycles, the explicit spatial resolution belowground, the consistent conceptualization of movement of water and solutes, the incorporation of stoichiometric controls on elemental fluxes and a consistent conceptualization of C and N reactivity in vegetation and soil organic matter. The model was evaluated for the Mer Bleue Bog, near Ottawa, Ontario, with regards to simulation of soil moisture and temperature and the most important processes in the C and N cycles. Model sensitivity was tested for nitrogen input, precipitation, and temperature, and the choices of the most uncertain parameters were justified. A simulation of nitrogen deposition over 40 yr demonstrates the advantages of the PEATBOG model in tracking biogeochemical effects and vegetation change in the ecosystem.

Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 3: A paleoperspective based on present-day data-model comparison for oxygen stable isotopes in carbonates Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1527-1558, 2013 Author(s): T. Caley and D. M. Roche Oxygen stable isotopes ( 18 O) are among the most usual tools in paleoclimatology/paleoceanography. Simulation of oxygen stable isotopes allows testing how the past variability of these isotopes in water can be interpreted. By modelling the proxy directly in the model, the results can also be directly compared with the data. Water isotopes have been implemented in the global three-dimensional model of intermediate complexity i LOVECLIM allowing fully coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations. In this study, we present the validation of the model results for present day climate against global database for oxygen stable isotopes in carbonates. The limitation of the model together with the processes operating in the natural environment reveal the complexity of use the continental calcite 18 O signal of speleothems for a data-model comparison exercise. On the contrary, the reconstructed surface ocean calcite δ 18 O signal in i LOVECLIM does show a very good agreement with late Holocene database (foraminifers) at the global and regional scales. Our results indicate that temperature and the isotopic composition of the seawater are the main control on the fossil δ 18 O signal recorded in foraminifer shells and that depth habitat and seasonality play a role but have secondary importance. We argue that a data-model comparison for surface ocean calcite δ 18 O in past climate, such as the last glacial maximum (≈21 000 yr), could constitute an interesting tool for mapping the potential shifts of the frontal systems and circulation changes throughout time. Similarly, the potential changes in intermediate oceanic circulation systems in the past could be documented by a data (benthic foraminifers)-model comparison exercise whereas future investigations are necessary in order to quantitatively compare the results with data for the deep ocean.

Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 2: Evaluation of model results against observed δ 18 O in water samples Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1495-1525, 2013 Author(s): D. M. Roche and T. Caley The H 2 18 O stable isotope was previously introduced in the three coupled components of the Earth System Model i LOVECLIM: atmosphere, ocean and vegetation. The results of a long (5000 yr) pre-industrial equilibrium simulation are presented and evaluated against measurement of H 2 18 O abundance in present-day water for the atmospheric and oceanic components. For the atmosphere, it is found that the model reproduces the observed spatial distribution and relationships to climate variables with some merit, though limitations following our approach are highlighted. Indeed, we obtain the main gradients with a robust representation of the Rayleigh distillation but caveats appear in Antarctica and around the Mediterranean region due to model limitation. For the oceanic component, the agreement between the modelled and observed distribution of water δ 18 O is found to be very good. Mean ocean surface latitudinal gradients are faithfully reproduced as well as the mark of the main intermediate and deep water masses. This opens large prospects for the applications in paleoclimatic context.

Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 1: Implementation and verification Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1467-1494, 2013 Author(s): D. M. Roche A new 18 O stable water isotope scheme is developed for three components of the i LOVECLIM coupled climate model: atmospheric, oceanic and land surface. The equations required to reproduce the fractionation of stable water isotopes in the simplified atmospheric model ECBilt are developed consistently with the moisture scheme. Simplifications in the processes are made to account for the simplified vertical structure including only one moist layer. Implementation of these equations together with a passive tracer scheme for the ocean and a equilibrium fractionation scheme for the land surface leads to the closure of the (isotopic-)water budget in our climate system. Following the implementation, verification of the existence of usual δ 18 O to climatic relationships are performed for the Rayleigh distillation, the Dansgaard relationship and the δ 18 O–salinity relationship. Advantages and caveats of the approach taken are outlined.

Description: Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new generation ice-sheet model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1689-1741, 2013 Author(s): O. Gagliardini, T. Zwinger, F. Gillet-Chaulet, G. Durand, L. Favier, B. de Fleurian, R. Greve, M. Malinen, C. Martín, P. Råback, J. Ruokolainen, M. Sacchettini, M. Schäfer, H. Seddik, and J. Thies The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice-sheet flow models are unable to forecast the current increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea-level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice-flow models, and as a result, a significant number of new ice-sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger scale problems, earning the status of an ice-sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. We present the components already included in Elmer/Ice, its numerical performance, selected applications, as well as developments planned for the future.

Description: WRFv3.2-SPAv2: development and validation of a coupled ecosystem-atmosphere model, scaling from surface fluxes of CO 2 and energy to atmospheric profiles Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1559-1598, 2013 Author(s): T. L. Smallman, J. B. Moncrieff, and M. Williams The Weather Research & Forecasting meteorological (WRF) model has been coupled to the Soil Plant Atmosphere (SPA) terrestrial ecosystem model, to produce WRF-SPA. SPA generates realistic land-atmosphere exchanges through fully coupled hydrological, carbon and energy cycles. The addition of a land surface model (SPA) capable of modelling biospheric CO 2 exchange allows WRF-SPA to be used for investigating the feedbacks between biosphere carbon balance, meteorology and land management/land use change. We have extensively validated WRF-SPA using multi-annual observations of air temperature, turbulent fluxes, net radiation and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 at three sites, representing the dominant vegetation types in Scotland (forest, managed grassland and arable agriculture). WRF-SPA generates more realistic seasonal behaviour at the site level compared to an unmodified version of WRF, and produces realistic CO 2 exchanges. WRF-SPA is also able to realistically model atmospheric profiles of CO 2 over Scotland, spanning a 3 yr period (2004–2006), capturing both profile structure, indicating realistic transport, and magnitude indicating appropriate source sink distribution and CO 2 exchange. WRF-SPA makes use of CO 2 tracer pools and can therefore identify and quantify land surface contributions to the modelled atmospheric CO 2 signal at a specified location.

Description: Comparison between different approaches to modeling shallow landslide susceptibility: a case history in Oltrepo Pavese, Northern Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 559-573, 2013 Author(s): D. Zizioli, C. Meisina, R. Valentino, and L. Montrasio On the 27 and 28 April 2009, the area of Oltrepo Pavese in northern Italy was affected by a very intense rainfall event that caused a great number of shallow landslides. These instabilities occurred on slopes covered by vineyards or recently formed woodlands and caused damage to many roads and one human loss. Based on aerial photographs taken immediately after the event and field surveys, more than 1600 landslides were detected. After acquiring topographical data, geotechnical properties of the soils and land use, susceptibility analysis on a territorial scale was carried out. In particular, different physically based models were applied to two contiguous sites with the same geological context but different typologies and sizes of shallow landslides. This paper presents the comparison between the ex-post results obtained from the different approaches. On the basis of the observed landslide localizations, the accuracy of the different models was evaluated, and the significant results are highlighted.

Description: Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 545-557, 2013 Author(s): E. Vanem and O. N. Breivik Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.

Description: Sensitivities and uncertainties of modeled ground temperatures in mountain environments Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 791-840, 2013 Author(s): S. Gubler, S. Endrizzi, S. Gruber, and R. S. Purves Before operational use or for decision making, models must be validated, and the degree of trust in model outputs should be quantified. Often, model validation is performed at single locations due to the lack of spatially-distributed data. Since the analysis of parametric model uncertainties can be performed independently of observations, it is a suitable method to test the influence of environmental variability on model evaluation. In this study, the sensitivities and uncertainty of a physically-based mountain permafrost model are quantified within an artificial topography consisting of different elevations and exposures combined with six ground types characterized by their hydraulic properties. The analyses performed for all combinations of topographic factors and ground types allowed to quantify the variability of model sensitivity and uncertainty within mountain regions. We found that modeled snow duration considerably influences the mean annual ground temperature (MAGT). The melt-out day of snow (MD) is determined by processes determining snow accumulation and melting. Parameters such as the temperature and precipitation lapse rate and the snow correction factor have therefore a great impact on modeled MAGT. Ground albedo changes MAGT from 0.5 to 4°C in dependence of the elevation, the aspect and the ground type. South-exposed inclined locations are more sensitive to changes in ground albedo than north-exposed slopes since they receive more solar radiation. The sensitivity to ground albedo increases with decreasing elevation due to shorter snow cover. Snow albedo and other parameters determining the amount of reflected solar radiation are important, changing MAGT at different depths by more than 1°C. Parameters influencing the turbulent fluxes as the roughness length or the dew temperature are more sensitive at low elevation sites due to higher air temperatures and decreased solar radiation. Modeling the individual terms of the energy balance correctly is hence crucial in any physically-based permafrost model, and a separate evaluation of the energy fluxes could substantially improve the results of permafrost models. The sensitivity in the hydraulic properties change considerably for different ground types: rock or clay for instance are not sensitive while gravel or peat, accurate measurements of the hydraulic properties could significantly improve modeled ground temperatures. Further, the discretization of ground, snow and time have an impact on modeled MAGT that cannot be neglected (more than 1°C for several discretization parameters). We show that the temporal resolution should be at least one hour to ensure errors less than 0.2°C in modeled MAGT, and the uppermost ground layer should at most be 20 mm thick. Within the topographic setting, the total parametric output uncertainties expressed as the standard deviation of the Monte Carlo model simulations range from 0.1 to 0.5°C for clay, silt and rock, and from 0.1 to 0.8°C for peat, sand and gravel. These uncertainties are comparable to the variability of ground surface temperatures measured within 10 m × 10 m grids in Switzerland. The increased uncertainties for sand, peat and gravel is largely due to the high hydraulic conductivity.

Description: One-dimensional simulation of fire injection heights in contrasted meteorological scenarios with PRM and Meso-NH models Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 721-790, 2013 Author(s): S. Strada, S. R. Freitas, C. Mari, K. M. Longo, and R. Paugam Wild-fires release huge amounts of aerosol and hazardous trace gases in the atmosphere. The residence time and the dispersion of fire pollutants in the atmosphere can range from hours to days and from local to continental scales. These various scenarios highly depend on the injection height of smoke plumes. The altitude at which fire products are injected in the atmosphere is controlled by fire characteristics and meteorological conditions. Injection height however is still poorly accounted in chemistry transport models for which fires are sub-grid scale processes which need to be parametrised. Only recently, physically-based approaches for estimating the fire injection heights have been developed which consider both the convective updrafts induced by the release of fire sensible heat and the impact of background meteorological environment on the fire convection dynamics. In this work, two different models are used to simulate fire injection heights in contrasted meteorological scenarios: a Mediterranean arson fire and two Amazonian deforestation fires. A Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux approach, formerly developed to reproduce convective boundary layer in the non-hydrostatic meteorological model Meso-NH, is compared to the 1-D Plume Rise Model. For both models, radiosonde data and re-analyses from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been used as initial conditions to explore the sensitivity of the models responses to different meteorological forcings. The two models predict injection heights for the Mediterranean fire between 1.7 and 3.3 km with the Meso-NH/EDMF model systematically higher than the 1-D PRM model. Both models show a limited sensitivity to the meteorological forcings with a 20–30% difference in the injection height between radiosondes and ECMWF data for this case. Injection heights calculated for the two Amazonian fires ranges from 5 to 6.5 km for the 1-D PRM model and from 2 to 4 km for the Meso-NH/EDMF model. The difference of smoke plume heights between the two models can reach 3–4 km. A large difference is obtained for the windy-wet Amazonian fire by the 1-D PRM model with a injection height 1.5 km higher when ECMWF re-analyses are used compared to the run with the radiosonde forcing. For the Mediterranean case, both models forecast a plume injection height above the boundary layer, although there are evidences that this particular fire propagated near the surface, highlighting the current limitations of the two approaches.

Description: Real-time flood forecasting coupling different postprocessing techniques of precipitation forecast ensembles with a distributed hydrological model. The case study of may 2008 flood in western Piemonte, Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 211-220, 2013 Author(s): D. Cane, S. Ghigo, D. Rabuffetti, and M. Milelli In this work, we compare the performance of an hydrological model when driven by probabilistic rain forecast derived from two different post-processing techniques. The region of interest is Piemonte, northwestern Italy, a complex orography area close to the Mediterranean Sea where the forecast are often a challenge for weather models. The May 2008 flood is here used as a case study, and the very dense weather station network allows us for a very good description of the event and initialization of the hydrological model. The ensemble probabilistic forecasts of the rainfall fields are obtained with the Bayesian model averaging, with the classical poor man ensemble approach and with a new technique, the Multimodel SuperEnsemble Dressing. In this case study, the meteo-hydrological chain initialized with the Multimodel SuperEnsemble Dressing is able to provide more valuable discharge ranges with respect to the one initialized with Bayesian model averaging multi-model.

Description: Representation of nucleation mode microphysics in global aerosol microphysics models Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 893-924, 2013 Author(s): Y. H. Lee, J. R. Pierce, and P. J. Adams In models, nucleation mode (1 nm 〈 D p 〈 10 nm) particle microphysics can be represented explicitly with aerosol microphysical processes or can be parameterized to obtain the growth and survival of nuclei to the model's lower size boundary. This study investigates how the representation of nucleation mode microphysics impacts aerosol number predictions in the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) aerosol microphysics model running with the GISS GCM II-prime by varying its lowest diameter boundary: 1 nm, 3 nm, and 10 nm. The model with the 1 nm boundary simulates the nucleation mode particles with fully resolved microphysical processes, while the model with the 10 nm and 3 nm boundaries uses a nucleation mode dynamics parameterization to account for the growth of nucleated particles to 10 nm and 3 nm, respectively. We also investigate the impact of the time step for aerosol microphysical processes (a 10-min versus a 1-h time step) to aerosol number predictions in the TOMAS models with explicit dynamics for the nucleation mode particles (i.e. 3 nm and 1 nm boundary). The model with the explicit microphysics (i.e. 1 nm boundary) with the 10-min time step is used as a numerical benchmark simulation to estimate biases caused by varying the lower size cutoff and the time step. Different representations of the nucleation mode have a significant effect on the formation rate of particles larger than 10 nm from nucleated particles ( J 10 ) and the burdens and lifetimes of ultrafine mode (10 nm 〈 D p 〈 70 nm) particles but have less impact on the burdens and lifetimes of CCN-sized particles. The models using parameterized microphysics (i.e. 10 nm and 3 nm boundaries) result in higher J 10 and shorter coagulation lifetimes of ultrafine mode particles than the model with explicit dynamics (i.e. 1 nm boundary). The spatial distributions of CN10 ( D p 〉 10 nm) and CCN(0.2%) (i.e. CCN concentrations at 0.2% supersaturation) are moderately affected, especially CN10 predictions above ~ 700 hPa where nucleation contributes most strongly to CN10 concentrations. The lowermost layer CN10 is substantially improved with the 3 nm boundary (compared to 10 nm) in most areas. The overprediction in CN10 with the 3 nm and 10 nm boundaries can be explained by the overprediction of J 10 or J 3 with the parameterized microphysics possibly due to the instantaneous growth rate assumption in the survival and growth parameterization. The errors in CN10 predictions are sensitive to the choice of the lower size boundary but not to the choice of the time step applied to the microphysical processes. The spatial distribution of CCN(0.2%) with the 3 nm boundary is almost identical to that with the 1 nm boundary, but that with the 10 nm boundary can differ more than 10–40% in some areas. We found that the deviation in the 10 nm simulations is partly due to the longer time step (i.e. 1-h time step used in the 10 nm simulations compared to 10-min time step used in the benchmark simulations) but, even with the same time step, the 10 nm cutoff showed noticeably higher errors than the 3 nm cutoff. In conclusion, we generally recommend using a lower diameter boundary of 3 nm for studies focused on aerosol indirect effects but down to 1 nm boundary for studies focused on CN10 predictions or nucleation.

Description: Technical Note: Use of remote sensing for landslide studies in Europe Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 299-309, 2013 Author(s): V. Tofani, S. Segoni, A. Agostini, F. Catani, and N. Casagli Within the framework of FP7, an EU-funded SafeLand project, a questionnaire was prepared to collect information about the use of remote sensing for landslide study and to evaluate its actual application in landslide detection, mapping and monitoring. The questionnaire was designed using a Google form and was disseminated among end-users and researchers involved in landslide studies in Europe. In total, 49 answers from 17 different European countries were collected. The outcomes showed that landslide detection and mapping is mainly performed with aerial photos, often associated with optical and radar imagery. Concerning landslide monitoring, satellite radars prevail over the other types of data. Remote sensing is mainly used for detection/mapping and monitoring of slides, flows and lateral spreads with a preferably large scale of analysis (1:5000–1:25 000). All the compilers integrate remote sensing data with other thematic data, mainly geological maps, landslide inventory maps and DTMs and derived maps. According to the research and working experience of the compilers, remote sensing is generally considered to have a medium effectiveness/reliability for landslide studies. The results of the questionnaire can contribute to an overall sketch of the use of remote sensing in current landslide studies and show that remote sensing can be considered a powerful and well-established instrument for landslide mapping, monitoring and hazard analysis.

Description: Seismic risk assessment of architectural heritages in Gyeongju considering local site effects Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 251-262, 2013 Author(s): H.-J. Park, D.-S. Kim, and D.-M. Kim A seismic risk assessment is conducted for cultural heritage sites in Gyeongju, the capital of Korea's ancient Silla Kingdom. Gyeongju, home to UNESCO World Heritage sites, contains remarkable artifacts of Korean Buddhist art. An extensive geotechnical survey including a series of in situ tests is presented, providing pertinent soil profiles for site response analyses on thirty cultural heritage sites. After the shear wave velocity profiles and dynamic material properties were obtained, site response analyses were carried out at each historical site and the amplification characteristics, site period, and response spectrum of the site were determined for the earthquake levels of 2400 yr and 1000 yr return periods based on the Korean seismic hazard map. Response spectrum and corresponding site coefficients obtained from site response analyses considering geologic conditions differ significantly from the current Korean seismic code. This study confirms the importance of site-specific ground response analyses considering local geological conditions. Results are given in the form of the spatial distribution of bedrock depth, site period, and site amplification coefficients, which are particularly valuable in the context of a seismic vulnerability study. This study presents the potential amplification of hazard maps and provides primary data on the seismic risk assessment of each cultural heritage.

Description: Simulating future precipitation extremes in a complex Alpine catchment Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 263-277, 2013 Author(s): C. Dobler, G. Bürger, and J. Stötter The objectives of the present investigation are (i) to study the effects of climate change on precipitation extremes and (ii) to assess the uncertainty in the climate projections. The investigation is performed on the Lech catchment, located in the Northern Limestone Alps. In order to estimate the uncertainty in the climate projections, two statistical downscaling models as well as a number of global and regional climate models were considered. The downscaling models applied are the Expanded Downscaling (XDS) technique and the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG). The XDS model, which is driven by analyzed or simulated large-scale synoptic fields, has been calibrated using ECMWF-interim reanalysis data and local station data. LARS-WG is controlled through stochastic parameters representing local precipitation variability, which are calibrated from station data only. Changes in precipitation mean and variability as simulated by climate models were then used to perturb the parameters of LARS-WG in order to generate climate change scenarios. In our study we use climate simulations based on the A1B emission scenario. The results show that both downscaling models perform well in reproducing observed precipitation extremes. In general, the results demonstrate that the projections are highly variable. The choice of both the GCM and the downscaling method are found to be essential sources of uncertainty. For spring and autumn, a slight tendency toward an increase in the intensity of future precipitation extremes is obtained, as a number of simulations show statistically significant increases in the intensity of 90th and 99th percentiles of precipitation on wet days as well as the 5- and 20-yr return values.

Description: Fuzzy approach to analysis of flood risk based on variable fuzzy sets and improved information diffusion methods Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 239-249, 2013 Author(s): Q. Li The predictive analysis of natural disasters and their consequences is challenging because of uncertainties and incomplete data. The present article studies the use of variable fuzzy sets (VFS) and improved information diffusion method (IIDM) to construct a composite method. The proposed method aims to integrate multiple factors and quantification of uncertainties within a consistent system for catastrophic risk assessment. The fuzzy methodology is proposed in the area of flood disaster risk assessment to improve probability estimation. The purpose of the current study is to establish a fuzzy model to evaluate flood risk with incomplete data sets. The results of the example indicate that the methodology is effective and practical; thus, it has the potential to forecast the flood risk in flood risk management.

Description: Review of unprecedented ULF electromagnetic anomalous emissions possibly related to the Wenchuan M S = 8.0 earthquake, on 12 May 2008 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 279-286, 2013 Author(s): M. Li, J. Lu, M. Parrot, H. Tan, Y. Chang, X. Zhang, and Y. Wang This work presents ground based ultra low frequency (ULF) electromagnetic field measurements in the frequency range 0.1–10 Hz from January 2007 to December 2008. In this time period a strong earthquake series hits the Wenchuan region with a main shock of magnitude M S = 8.0 on 12 May 2008. The Hebei ULF electromagnetic observation network includes eight observation stations in north China and the observation system named E-EM is employed to record the electric potential difference between two electrodes with an analog automatic real-time continuous pen recorder. First, weak electric signals appeared on 11 October 2007 at Ningjin station, most of which are with relative long periods ~0.4–3 s and unequal amplitudes ~0.5–20 mm. Then, similar signals appeared at Gaobeidian station at the end of October. Abnormal behavior with various time intervals appeared randomly and not every day. At the beginning of April 2008, one and a half months before the Wenchuan M S = 8.0 earthquake, the anomalies were gradually subject to an intensive increase mainly in Gaobeidian SN direction and Ningjin EW direction. The abnormal behavior appeared almost every day and the amplitudes of electric signals, with short periods of ~0.1–0.3 s, enhanced to ~3–30 mm. Qingxian station started to record marginally high frequency signals in SN and EW components in the middle of April. On 9 May, 3 days before the main shock, the amplitude of high frequency information increased sharply at the same time in two components at Gaobeidian station and the maximum amplitude was up to 70 mm, i.e. 1.3 mV m −1 for the electric field. This situation did not stop until 17 May, 5 days after the main event. However, this kind of climax phenomena did not happen at Ningjin station and Qingxian station. Then weak anomalous information lasted about four months again, and strong signals appeared again for a short time before several powerful aftershocks. It is the first time that an abnormity with so large an amplitude and so long a duration time in the observation history of this network though several strong earthquakes were recorded. Furthermore, no obvious interferences have been found during this period. So this event is possibly related to this shock although all these three stations are more than 1300 km away from the Wenchuan earthquake epicenter.

Description: An optimally tuned ensemble of the "eb_go_gs" configuration of GENIE: parameter sensitivity and bifurcations in the Atlantic overturning circulation Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 925-956, 2013 Author(s): R. Marsh, A. Sóbester, E. E. Hart, K. I. C. Oliver, N. R. Edwards, and S. J. Cox The key physical parameters of the "eb_go_gs" configuration of GENIE, an Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC), are tuned using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. An ensemble of 90 parameter sets is tuned using two ocean and two atmospheric state variables as targets. These are "Pareto-optimal", representing a range of trade-offs between the four tuning targets. For the leading five parameter sets, simulations are further evaluated alongside a simulation with untuned "default" parameters, comparing selected variables and diagnostics that describe the state of the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice. One of these parameter sets is selected for further analysis of the objective function (error) landscape in the vicinity of its tuned values. "Cliffs" along some dimensions motivate closer inspection of corresponding variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This reveals that bifurcations in the AMOC are highly sensitive to parameters that are not commonly associated with MOC stability. Specifically, the state of the AMOC is sensitive to parameters governing the wind-driven circulation and atmospheric heat transport. Five optimal parameter sets are recommended for future use of GENIE in the configuration presented here.

Description: Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 339-360, 2013 Author(s): J.-C. Thouret, G. Enjolras, K. Martelli, O. Santoni, J. A. Luque, M. Nagata, A. Arguedas, and L. Macedo Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash flood and lahar hazards, which are localized along the usually dry (except for the rainy season) ravines and channels of the Río Chili and its tributaries that dissect the city. Our risk-evaluation study is based mostly on field surveys and mapping, but we also took into account quality and structural integrity of buildings, available socio-economic data, and information gained from interviews with risk-managers officials. In our evaluation of the vulnerability of various parts of the city, in addition to geological and physical parameters, we also took into account selected socio-economic parameters, such as the educational and poverty level of the population, unemployment figures, and population density. In addition, we utilized a criterion of the "isolation factor", based on distances to access emergency resources (hospitals, shelters or safety areas, and water) in each city block. By combining the hazard, vulnerability and exposure criteria, we produced detailed risk-zone maps at the city-block scale, covering the whole city of Arequipa and adjacent suburbs. Not surprisingly, these maps show that the areas at high risk coincide with blocks or districts with populations at low socio-economic levels. Inhabitants at greatest risk are the poor recent immigrants from rural areas who live in unauthorized settlements in the outskirts of the city in the upper parts of the valleys. Such settlements are highly exposed to natural hazards and have little access to vital resources. Our study provides good rationale for the risk zoning of the city, which in turn may be used as an educational tool for better understanding the potential effects of natural hazards and the exposure of the population residing in and around Arequipa. We hope that our work and the risk-zonation maps will provide the impetus and basis for risk-management authorities of the Municipality and the regional government of Arequipa to enforce existing regulations in building in hazardous zones and to adopt an effective long-term strategy to reduce risks from lahar, flash flood, and other natural hazards.

Description: Analyzing resilience of urban networks: a preliminary step towards more flood resilient cities Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 221-230, 2013 Author(s): S. Lhomme, D. Serre, Y. Diab, and R. Laganier In Europe, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity. These circumstances require the management of flood risk by integrating new concepts like urban resilience. Nevertheless, urban resilience seems to have no accurate meanings. That is why researchers are primarily concerned with defining resilience. Nevertheless, focus on research object seems to be more important than focus on conceptual debate (Resilience of what? Rather than what is resilience?). Thus the methodology designed here is focused on urban considerations. In fact, a system approach emphasizes technical networks' importance concerning urban resilience. Principles and assumptions applied in this research finally lead to the analysis of how urban networks are able to face natural hazards. In this context, a Web-GIS has been developed for analyzing resistance capacity, absorption capacity and recovery capacity of different technical networks. A first application has been carried out on a French agglomeration in order to analyze road network absorption capacity. This application is very specific but, thanks to this example, it is already possible to highlight the methodology's usefulness.

Description: Effect of heterogeneities on evaluating earthquake triggering of volcanic eruptions Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 231-237, 2013 Author(s): J. Takekawa, H. Mikada, and T. Goto Recent researches have indicated coupling between volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Some of them calculated static stress transfer in subsurface induced by the occurrences of earthquakes. Most of their analyses ignored the spatial heterogeneity in subsurface, or only took into account the rigidity layering in the crust. On the other hand, a smaller scale heterogeneity of around hundreds of meters has been suggested by geophysical investigations. It is difficult to reflect that kind of heterogeneity in analysis models because accurate distributions of fluctuation are not well understood in many cases. Thus, the effect of the ignorance of the smaller scale heterogeneity on evaluating the earthquake triggering of volcanic eruptions is also not well understood. In the present study, we investigate the influence of the assumption of homogeneity on evaluating earthquake triggering of volcanic eruptions using finite element simulations. The crust is treated as a stochastic media with different heterogeneous parameters (correlation length and magnitude of velocity perturbation) in our simulations. We adopt exponential and von Karman functions as spatial auto-correlation functions (ACF). In all our simulation results, the ignorance of the smaller scale heterogeneity leads to underestimation of the failure pressure around a chamber wall, which relates to dyke initiation. The magnitude of the velocity perturbation has a larger effect on the tensile failure at the chamber wall than the difference of the ACF and the correlation length. The maximum effect on the failure pressure in all our simulations is about twice larger than that in the homogeneous case. This indicates that the estimation of the earthquake triggering due to static stress transfer should take account of the heterogeneity of around hundreds of meters.

Description: Modelling long-term fire occurrence factors in Spain by accounting for local variations with geographically weighted regression Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 311-327, 2013 Author(s): J. Martínez-Fernández, E. Chuvieco, and N. Koutsias Humans are responsible for most forest fires in Europe, but anthropogenic factors behind these events are still poorly understood. We tried to identify the driving factors of human-caused fire occurrence in Spain by applying two different statistical approaches. Firstly, assuming stationary processes for the whole country, we created models based on multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression to find factors associated with fire density and fire presence, respectively. Secondly, we used geographically weighted regression (GWR) to better understand and explore the local and regional variations of those factors behind human-caused fire occurrence. The number of human-caused fires occurring within a 25-yr period (1983–2007) was computed for each of the 7638 Spanish mainland municipalities, creating a binary variable (fire/no fire) to develop logistic models, and a continuous variable (fire density) to build standard linear regression models. A total of 383 657 fires were registered in the study dataset. The binary logistic model, which estimates the probability of having/not having a fire, successfully classified 76.4% of the total observations, while the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model explained 53% of the variation of the fire density patterns (adjusted R 2 = 0.53). Both approaches confirmed, in addition to forest and climatic variables, the importance of variables related with agrarian activities, land abandonment, rural population exodus and developmental processes as underlying factors of fire occurrence. For the GWR approach, the explanatory power of the GW linear model for fire density using an adaptive bandwidth increased from 53% to 67%, while for the GW logistic model the correctly classified observations improved only slightly, from 76.4% to 78.4%, but significantly according to the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AIC c ), from 3451.19 to 3321.19. The results from GWR indicated a significant spatial variation in the local parameter estimates for all the variables and an important reduction of the autocorrelation in the residuals of the GW linear model. Despite the fitting improvement of local models, GW regression, more than an alternative to "global" or traditional regression modelling, seems to be a valuable complement to explore the non-stationary relationships between the response variable and the explanatory variables. The synergy of global and local modelling provides insights into fire management and policy and helps further our understanding of the fire problem over large areas while at the same time recognizing its local character.

Description: Landslide susceptibility assessment by using a neuro-fuzzy model: a case study in the Rupestrian heritage rich area of Matera Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 395-407, 2013 Author(s): F. Sdao, D. S. Lioi, S. Pascale, D. Caniani, and I. M. Mancini The complete assessment of landslide susceptibility needs uniformly distributed detailed information on the territory. This information, which is related to the temporal occurrence of landslide phenomena and their causes, is often fragmented and heterogeneous. The present study evaluates the landslide susceptibility map of the Natural Archaeological Park of Matera (Southern Italy) (Sassi and area Rupestrian Churches sites). The assessment of the degree of "spatial hazard" or "susceptibility" was carried out by the spatial prediction regardless of the return time of the events. The evaluation model for the susceptibility presented in this paper is very focused on the use of innovative techniques of artificial intelligence such as Neural Network, Fuzzy Logic and Neuro-fuzzy Network. The method described in this paper is a novel technique based on a neuro-fuzzy system. It is able to train data like neural network and it is able to shape and control uncertain and complex systems like a fuzzy system. This methodology allows us to derive susceptibility maps of the study area. These data are obtained from thematic maps representing the parameters responsible for the instability of the slopes. The parameters used in the analysis are: plan curvature, elevation (DEM), angle and aspect of the slope, lithology, fracture density, kinematic hazard index of planar and wedge sliding and toppling. Moreover, this method is characterized by the network training which uses a training matrix, consisting of input and output training data , which determine the landslide susceptibility. The neuro-fuzzy method was integrated to a sensitivity analysis in order to overcome the uncertainty linked to the used membership functions. The method was compared to the landslide inventory map and was validated by applying three methods: a ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis, a confusion matrix and a SCAI method. The developed neuro-fuzzy method showed a good performance in the determination of the landslide susceptibility map.

Description: A digital social network for rapid collection of earthquake disaster information Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 385-394, 2013 Author(s): J. H. Xu, G. Z. Nie, and X. Xu Acquiring disaster information quickly after an earthquake is crucial for disaster and emergency rescue management. This study examines a digital social network – an earthquake disaster information reporting network – for rapid collection of earthquake disaster information. Based on the network, the disaster information rapid collection method is expounded in this paper. The structure and components of the reporting network are introduced. Then the work principles of the reporting network are discussed, in which the rapid collection of disaster information is realised by using Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) messages to report the disaster information and Geographic information system (GIS) to analyse and extract useful disaster information. This study introduces some key technologies for the work principles, including the methods of mass sending and receiving of SMS for disaster management, the reporting network grouping management method, brief disaster information codes, and the GIS modelling of the reporting network. Finally, a city earthquake disaster information quick reporting system is developed and with the support of this system the reporting network obtained good results in a real earthquake and earthquake drills. This method is a semi-real time disaster information collection method which extends current SMS based method and meets the need of small and some moderate earthquakes.

Description: Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management – Part 2: Application to Tangjiashan landslide dam failure Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 439-454, 2013 Author(s): M. Peng and L. M. Zhang Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was triggered by the M s = 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 in China, threatened 1.2 million people downstream of the dam. All people in Beichuan Town 3.5 km downstream of the dam and 197 thousand people in Mianyang City 85 km downstream of the dam were evacuated 10 days before the breaching of the dam. Making such an important decision under uncertainty was difficult. This paper applied a dynamic decision-making framework for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM) to help rational decision in the emergency management of the Tangjiashan landslide dam. Three stages are identified with different levels of hydrological, geological and social-economic information along the timeline of the landslide dam failure event. The probability of dam failure is taken as a time series. The dam breaching parameters are predicted with a set of empirical models in stage 1 when no soil property information is known, and a physical model in stages 2 and 3 when knowledge of soil properties has been obtained. The flood routing downstream of the dam in these three stages is analyzed to evaluate the population at risk (PAR). The flood consequences, including evacuation costs, flood damage and monetized loss of life, are evaluated as functions of warning time using a human risk analysis model based on Bayesian networks. Finally, dynamic decision analysis is conducted to find the optimal time to evacuate the population at risk with minimum total loss in each of these three stages.

Description: An efficient method to generate a perturbed parameter ensemble of a fully coupled AOGCM without flux-adjustment Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 841-892, 2013 Author(s): P. J. Irvine, L Gregoire, D. J. Lunt, and P. J. Valdes We present a simple method to generate a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of a fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), HadCM3, without requiring flux-adjustment. The aim was to produce an ensemble that samples parametric uncertainty in some key variables and displays a similar range of behavior as seen in multi-model ensembles (MMEs). Six atmospheric parameters, a sea-ice parameter and an ocean parameter were jointly perturbed within a reasonable range to generate an initial group of 200 members. To screen out implausible ensemble members, 20 yr pre-industrial control simulations were run and members whose temperature response to the parameter perturbations was projected to be outside the range of 13.6 ± 2°C, i.e. near to the observed pre-industrial global mean, were discarded. 21 members, including the standard unperturbed model, were accepted, covering almost the entire span of the eight parameters, challenging the argument that without flux-adjustment parameter ranges would be unduly restricted. This ensemble was used in 3 experiments; a 800 yr pre-industrial, a 150 yr quadrupled CO 2 , and a 150 yr 1% CO 2 rise per annum simulation. The behavior of the PPE for the pre-industrial control compared well to the CMIP3 ensemble for a number of surface and atmospheric column variables with the exception of a few members in the Tropics. However, we find that members of the PPE with low values of the entrainment rate coefficient show very large increases in upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor concentrations in response to elevated CO 2 and some show implausibly high climate sensitivities, and as such some of these members will be excluded from future experiments with this ensemble. The outcome of this study is a PPE of a fully-coupled AOGCM which samples parametric uncertainty with a range of behavior similar to the CMIP3 ensemble and a simple methodology which would be applicable to other GCMs.

Description: Reasons for large fluctuation of radon and CO 2 levels in a dead-end passage of a karst cave (Postojna Cave, Slovenia) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 287-297, 2013 Author(s): A. Gregorič, J. Vaupotič, and F. Gabrovšek Measurements of radon concentration were performed at three geomorphologically different locations in Postojna Cave, Slovenia. In the part of the cave open to visitors, annual average radon activity concentrations of 3255 ± 1190 Bq m −3 and 2315 ± 1019 Bq m −3 were found at the lowest point (LP) and in the Lepe jame (Beautiful Caves, BC), respectively. A much higher average of 25 020 ± 12 653 Bq m −3 was characteristic of the dead-end passage Pisani rov (Gaily Coloured Corridor, GC), in which CO 2 concentration also reached very high values of 4689 ± 294 ppm in summer. Seasonal variations of radon and CO 2 levels in the cave are governed by convective airflow, controlled mainly by the temperature difference between the cave and the outside atmosphere. The following additional sources of radon and CO 2 were considered: (i) flux of geogas from the Earth's crust through fractured rocks (radon and CO 2 source), (ii) clay sediments inside the passage (radon source) and (iii) the soil layer above the cave (radon and CO 2 source).

Description: Damages to unreinforced masonry buildings by the Van earthquakes of 23 October and 9 November 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 329-337, 2013 Author(s): Y. S. Tama, A. Solak, N. Çetinkaya, G. Şen, S. Yılmaz, and H. Kaplan Van, a city in Eastern Anatolian Turkey, was hit by two earthquakes with magnitudes of M w = 7.2 and M w = 5.6 in October and November 2011. Both earthquakes caused extensive damage to many buildings. Unreinforced masonry buildings, especially in rural areas, suffered from those earthquakes extensively as in many other cases observed in Turkey during other previous earthquakes. This paper presents a site survey of damaged masonry buildings. Reasons for the wide spread damages are discussed in the paper.

Description: A cloud chemistry module for the 3-D cloud-resolving mesoscale model Meso-NH with application to idealized cases Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 957-1020, 2013 Author(s): M. Leriche, J.-P. Pinty, C. Mari, and D. Gazen A complete chemical module has been developed for use in the Meso-NH three-dimensional cloud resolving mesoscale model. This module includes gaseous and aqueous phase chemical reactions that are analysed by a pre-processor generating the Fortran90 code automatically. The kinetic solver is based on a Rosenbrock algorithm, which is robust and accurate for integrating stiff systems and especially multiphase chemistry. The exchange of chemical species between the gas phase and cloud droplets and raindrops is computed kinetically by mass transfers considering non-equilibrium between the gas and the condensed phases. Microphysical transfers of chemical species are considered for the various cloud microphysics schemes available, which are based on one-moment or two-moment schemes. The pH of the droplets and of the raindrops is diagnosed separately as the root of a high order polynomial equation. The chemical concentrations in the ice phase are modelled in a single phase encompassing the two categories of precipitating ice particles (snow and graupel) of the microphysical scheme. The only process transferring chemical species in ice is retention during freezing or riming of liquid hydrometeors. Three idealized simulations are reported, which highlight the sensitivity of scavenging efficiency to the choice of the microphysical scheme and the retention coefficient in the ice phase. A two-dimensional warm, shallow convection case is used to compare the impact of the microphysical schemes on the temporal evolution and rates of acid precipitation. Acid wet deposition rates are shown to be overestimated when a one-moment microphysics scheme is used compared to a two-moment scheme. The difference is induced by a better prediction of raindrop radius and raindrop number concentration in the latter scheme. A two-dimensional mixed-phase squall line and a three-dimensional mixed-phase supercell were simulated to test the sensitivity of cloud vertical transport to the retention efficiency of gases in the ice phase. The 2-D and 3-D simulations illustrate that the retention in ice of a moderately soluble gas such as formaldehyde substantially decreases its concentration in the upper troposphere. In these simulations, retention of highly soluble species in the ice phase significantly increased the wet deposition rates.

Description: Assessment of the warning system against floods on a rural area: the case of the lower Siret River (Romania) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 409-416, 2013 Author(s): F. Salit, L. Zaharia, and G. Beltrando The development of non-structural measures such as an early warning system, across the Europe, in flood risk management, requires a better understanding of the public involved and of the territory threatened. This paper aims to conduct an assessment of early warning and information to people with an analysis of the population's behaviour, presented in a form of an event tree. The objective is to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the warning system during a deadly flood in the lower Siret River (Romania) in 2005 and to demonstrate that each warning system has to be adapted to the territory in which it is effective. The behavioural model aims to determine to what extent the warning system can be improved but also to suggest ways to adapt risk education to the study area.

Description: Climate-induced landslide reactivation at the edge of the Most Basin (Czech Republic) – progress towards better landslide prediction Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 361-374, 2013 Author(s): J. Burda, F. Hartvich, J. Valenta, V. Smítka, and J. Rybář The catastrophic landslide at Eisenberg in North Bohemia was reactivated during January 2011. This study integrates a range of geoscientific evidence in order to constrain the spatial and temporal development of this reactivation. It has investigated long-term geodetic measurements to assess the morphological development of the site over the last two decades. There is evidence to suggest that, over this period, the site had been subjected to progressive deformation caused by the collapse of an old mine gallery. However, climatic data show that the reactivation itself was triggered by a dramatic rise in the water table induced by rapid snowmelt during a period of winter warming. Furthermore, geomorphological mapping has been used to characterise the morphology of the reactivated landslide and geophysical profiling has been used to analyse its internal structure. The results show that fissures are continuing to develop above the reactivated landslide scarp while highly saturated stiff-fissured claystones provide an incipient slide plane. The application of laser scanning has shown minimal evidence for ongoing landslide activity. It is, however, clear that future landslide events will occur here due to the favourable lithological, structural, and geotechnical conditions. Finally, we propose that future landslide activity at the site may be predicted by the height of water table as this defines theoretical pore pressure at the depth of the shear plane.

Description: Owen Ridge deep-water submarine landslides: implications for tsunami hazard along the Oman coast Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 417-424, 2013 Author(s): M. Rodriguez, N. Chamot-Rooke, H. Hébert, M. Fournier, and P. Huchon The recent discovery of voluminous submarine landslides along the Owen Ridge may represent a source of tsunami hazard for the nearby Oman coast. We assess the severity of this potential hazard by performing numerical simulations of tsunami generation and propagation from the biggest landslide (40 km 3 in volume) observed along the Owen Ridge. A finite-difference model, assimilating the landslide to a visco-plastic flow, simulates tsunami generation. Computation results show that Salalah city (190 000 inhabitants) is impacted by 2.5 m-high tsunami waves one hour after sediment failure. Higher wave elevation values (4 m) are reached in the low populated Sawqara Bay over 80 min after slide initiation. Although large submarine failures along remote oceanic ridges are infrequent, this study reveals an underestimated source of tsunami hazard in the Arabian Sea.

Description: Temporal and spatial variations in ionospheric electron density profiles over South Africa during strong magnetic storms Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 375-384, 2013 Author(s): Y. B. Yao, P. Chen, S. Zhang, and J. J. Chen Observations from the South African TrigNet global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and vertical total electron content (VTEC) data from the Jason-1 satellite were used to analyze the variations in ionospheric electron density profiles over South Africa before and after the severe geomagnetic storms on 15 May 2005. Computerized ionospheric tomography (CIT) was used to inverse the 3-D structure of ionospheric electron density and its response to the magnetic storms. Inversion results showed that electron density significantly increased at 10:00 UT, 15 May compared with that at the same period on 14 May. Positive ionospheric storms were observed in the inversion region during the magnetic storms. Jason-1 data show that the VTEC observed on descending orbits on 15 May significantly increased, whereas that on ascending orbits only minimally changed. This finding is identical to the CIT result.

Description: GAPPARD: a computationally efficient method of approximating gap-scale disturbance in vegetation models Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1021-1084, 2013 Author(s): M. Scherstjanoi, J. O. Kaplan, E. Thürig, and H. Lischke Models of vegetation dynamics that are designed for application at spatial scales larger than individual forest gaps suffer from several limitations. Typically, either a population average approximation is used that results in unrealistic tree allometry and forest stand structure, or models have a high computational demand because they need to simulate both a series of age-based cohorts and a number of replicate patches to account for stochastic gap-scale disturbances. The detail required by the latter method increases the number of calculations by two to three orders of magnitude compared to the less realistic population average approach. In an effort to increase the efficiency of dynamic vegetation models without sacrificing realism, and to explore patterns of spatial scaling in forests, we developed a new method for simulating stand-replacing disturbances that is both accurate and 10-50x faster than approaches that use replicate patches. The GAPPARD (approximating GAP model results with a Probabilistic Approach to account for stand Replacing Disturbances) method works by postprocessing the output of deterministic, undisturbed simulations of a cohort-based vegetation model by deriving the distribution of patch ages at any point in time on the basis of a disturbance probability. With this distribution, the expected value of any output variable can be calculated from the output values of the deterministic undisturbed run at the time corresponding to the patch age. To account for temporal changes in model forcing, e.g., as a result of climate change, GAPPARD performs a series of deterministic simulations and interpolates between the results in the postprocessing step. We integrated the GAPPARD method in the forest models LPJ-GUESS and TreeM-LPJ, and evaluated these in a series of simulations along an altitudinal transect of an inner-alpine valley. With GAPPARD applied to LPJ-GUESS results were insignificantly different from the output of the original model LPJ-GUESS using 100 replicate patches, but simulation time was reduced by approximately the factor 10. Our new method is therefore highly suited rapidly approximating LPJ-GUESS results, and provides the opportunity for future studies over large spatial domains, allows easier parameterization of tree species, faster identification of areas of interesting simulation results, and comparisons with large-scale datasets and forest models.

Description: A refined statistical cloud closure using double-Gaussian probability density functions Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1085-1125, 2013 Author(s): A. K. Naumann, A. Seifert, and J. P. Mellado We introduce a probability density function (PDF) based scheme to parameterize cloud fraction, average liquid water and liquid water flux in large-scale models, that is developed from and tested against large-eddy simulations and observational data. Because the tails of the PDFs are crucial for an appropriate parameterization of cloud properties, we use a double-Gaussian distribution that is able to represent the observed, skewed PDFs properly. Introducing two closure equations, the resulting parameterization relies on the first three moments of the subgrid variability of temperature and moisture as input parameters. The parameterization is shown to be clearly superior to a single-Gaussian approach in diagnosing the cloud fraction and average liquid water profiles and improves existing double-Gaussian closures. We find that the error of the new parameterization is smallest for a horizontal resolution of about 5–20 km and also depends on the appearance of mesoscale structures that are accompanied by higher rain rates. In combination with simple autoconversion schemes that only depend on the liquid water, the error introduced by the new parameterization is orders of magnitude smaller than the difference between various autoconversion schemes. For the liquid water flux, we introduce a parameterization that is depending on the skewness of the subgrid variability of temperature and moisture and that reproduces the profiles of the liquid water flux well.

Description: Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management – Part 1: Theoretical framework Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 425-437, 2013 Author(s): M. Peng and L. M. Zhang An evacuation decision for dam breaks is a very serious issue. A late decision may lead to loss of lives and properties, but a very early evacuation will incur unnecessary expenses. This paper presents a risk-based framework of dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM). The dam-break emergency management in both time scale and space scale is introduced first to define the dynamic decision problem. The probability of dam failure is taken as a stochastic process and estimated using a time-series analysis method. The flood consequences are taken as functions of warning time and evaluated with a human risk analysis model (HURAM) based on Bayesian networks. A decision criterion is suggested to decide whether to evacuate the population at risk (PAR) or to delay the decision. The optimum time for evacuating the PAR is obtained by minimizing the expected total loss, which integrates the time-related probabilities and flood consequences. When a delayed decision is chosen, the decision making can be updated with available new information. A specific dam-break case study is presented in a companion paper to illustrate the application of this framework to complex dam-breaching problems.

Description: Evaluation of WRF-SFIRE performance with field observations from the FireFlux experiment Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 121-169, 2013 Author(s): A. K. Kochanski, M. A. Jenkins, J. Mandel, J. D. Beezley, C. B. Clements, and S. Krueger This study uses in-situ measurements collected during the FireFlux field experiment to evaluate and improve the performance of coupled atmosphere-fire model WRF-SFIRE. The simulation of the experimental burn shows that WRF-SFIRE is capable of providing realistic head fire rate-of-spread and the vertical temperature structure of the fire plume, and, up to 10 m above ground level, fire-induced surface flow and vertical velocities within the plume. The model captured the changes in wind speed and direction before, during, and after fire front passage, along with arrival times of wind speed, temperature, and updraft maximae, at the two instrumented flux towers used in FireFlux. The model overestimated vertical velocities and underestimated horizontal wind speeds measured at tower heights above the 10 m, and it is hypothesized that the limited model resolution over estimated the fire front depth, leading to too high a heat release and, subsequently, too strong an updraft. However, on the whole, WRF-SFIRE fire plume behavior is consistent with the interpretation of FireFlux observations. The study suggests optimal experimental pre-planning, design, and execution of future field campaigns that are needed for further coupled atmosphere-fire model development and evaluation.

Description: Scale model for the confluent area of debris flow and main river: a case study of the Wenjia Gully Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3083-3093, 2013 Author(s): J. Zhang, Z. X. Guo, S. Y. Cao, and V. P. Singh When debris flow discharges into the main river, the deposition of debris raises the river bed, occupies the path of water conveyance and damages or even destroys buildings, resulting in considerable economic loss and possibly fatalities. Mathematical models are normally employed to compute debris flow. However, most of these models employ empirical formulae and coefficients and their results are seldom reliable. On the other hand, scale model tests associated with debris flow have seldom been conducted due to the lack of corresponding similarity laws and the difficulty of achieving the grain diameter scale. Focusing on pseudo-one-phase flow, this paper discusses the laws of similarity for the confluence of debris flow and main river and conducts a case study of the debris flow that occurred on 13 August 2010, in the Wenjia Gully, China. After satisfying the roughness scale, the kinematic viscosity coefficient scale, and the momentum ratio scale, it was found that the deposition terrain in the model test is consistent with the one in the prototype.

Description: An improved non-iterative surface layer flux scheme for atmospheric stable stratification condition Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 6459-6492, 2013 Author(s): Y. Li, Z. Gao, D. Li, L. Wang, and H. Wang Parameterization of turbulent fluxes under stably stratified conditions has always been a challenge. Current surface fluxes calculation schemes either need iterations or suffer low accuracy. In this paper, a non-iteration scheme is proposed to approach the classic iterative computation results using multiple regressions. It can be applied to the full range of roughness status 10 ≤ z/z 0 ≤ 10 5 and −0.5 ≤ log( z 0 / z 0h ) ≤ 30 under stable conditions 0 〈 Ri B ≤ 2.5. The maximum (average) relative errors for the turbulent transfer coefficients for momentum and sensible heat are 12% (1%) and 9% (1%), respectively.

Description: A system of conservative regridding for ice/atmosphere coupling in a GCM Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 6493-6568, 2013 Author(s): R. Fischer, S. Nowicki, M. Kelley, and G. A. Schmidt The method of elevation classes has proven to be a useful way for a low-resolution general circulation model (GCM) to produce high-resolution downscaled surface mass balance fields, for use in one-way studies coupling GCMs and ice flow models. Past uses of elevation classes have been a cause of non-conservation of mass and energy, caused by inconsistency in regridding schemes chosen to regrid to the atmosphere vs. downscaling to the ice model. This causes problems for two-way coupling. A strategy that resolves this conservation issue has been designed and is presented here. The approach identifies three grids between which data must be regridded, and five transformations between those grids required by a typical coupled GCM–ice flow model. This paper shows how each of those transformations may be achieved in a consistent, conservative manner. These transformations are implemented in GLINT2, a library used to couple GCMs with ice models. Source code and documentation are available for download. Confounding real-world issues are discussed, including the use of projections for ice modeling, how to handle dynamically changing ice geometry, and modifications required for finite element ice models.

Description: A 24-variable low-order coupled ocean–atmosphere model: OA-QG-WS v2 Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 6569-6604, 2013 Author(s): S. Vannitsem and L. De Cruz A new low-order coupled ocean–atmosphere model for mid-latitudes is derived. It is based on quasi-geostrophic equations for both the ocean and the atmosphere, coupled through momentum transfer at the interface. The systematic reduction of the number of modes describing the dynamics leads to an atmospheric low-order component of 20 ordinary differential equations, already discussed in Reinhold and Pierrehumbert (1982), and an oceanic low-order component of 4 ordinary differential equations, as proposed by Pierini (2012). The coupling terms for both components are derived and all the coefficients of the ocean model are provided. Its dynamics is then briefly explored, through the analysis of its mean field, its variability and its instability properties. The wind-driven ocean displays a decadal variability induced by the atmospheric chaotic wind forcing. The chaotic behavior of the coupled system is highly sensitive to the ocean–atmosphere coupling, for low values of the thermal forcing affecting the atmosphere (corresponding to a weakly chaotic coupled system). But it is less sensitive for large values of the thermal forcing (corresponding to a highly chaotic coupled system). In all the cases explored, the number of positive exponents is increasing with the coupling. A Fortran code of the model integration is provided as Supplement.

Description: Shallow landslide's stochastic risk modelling based on the precipitation event of August 2005 in Switzerland: results and implications Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3169-3184, 2013 Author(s): P. Nicolet, L. Foresti, O. Caspar, and M. Jaboyedoff Due to their relatively unpredictable characteristics, shallow landslides represent a risk for human infrastructures. Multiple shallow landslides can be triggered by widespread intense precipitation events. The event of August 2005 in Switzerland is used in order to propose a risk model to predict the expected number of landslides based on the precipitation amounts and lithological units. The spatial distribution of rainfall is characterized by merging data coming from operational weather radars and a dense network of rain gauges with an artificial neural network. Lithologies are grouped into four main units, with similar characteristics. Then, from a landslide inventory containing more than 5000 landslides, a probabilistic relation linking the precipitation amount and the lithology to the number of landslides in a 1 km 2 cell, is derived. In a next step, this relation is used to randomly redistribute the landslides using Monte Carlo simulations. The probability for a landslide to reach a building is assessed using stochastic geometry and the damage cost is assessed from the estimated mean damage cost using an exponential distribution to account for the variability. Although the model reproduces well the number of landslides, the number of affected buildings is underestimated. This seems to result from the human influence on landslide occurrence. Such a model might be useful to characterize the risk resulting from shallow landslides and its variability.

Description: A variational data assimilation system for soil–atmosphere flux estimates for the Community Land Model (CLM3.5) Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 6605-6637, 2013 Author(s): C. M. Hoppe, H. Elbern, and J. Schwinger This article presents the development and implementation of a spatio–temporal variational data assimilation system (4D-var) for the soil–vegetation–atmosphere–transfer model "Community Land Model" (CLM3.5), along with the development of the adjoint code for the core soil-atmosphere transfer scheme of energy and soil moisture. The purpose of this work is to obtain an improved estimation technique for the energy fluxes (sensible and latent heat fluxes) between the soil and the atmosphere. Optimal assessments of these fluxes are neither available from model simulations nor measurements alone, while a 4D-var data assimilation has the potential to combine both information sources by a Best Linear Unbiased Estimate (BLUE). The 4D-var method requires the development of the adjoint model of the CLM which was established in this work. The new data assimilation algorithm is able to assimilate soil temperature and soil moisture measurements for one-dimensional columns of the model grid. Numerical experiments were first used to test the algorithm under idealised conditions. It was found that the analysis delivers improved results whenever there is a dependence between the initial values and the assimilated quantity. Furthermore, soil temperature and soil moisture from in situ field measurements were assimilated. These calculations demonstrate the improved performance of flux estimates, whenever soil property parameters are available of sufficient quality. Misspecifications could also be identified by the performance of the variational scheme.

Description: Tephra hazard assessment at Mt. Etna (Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3221-3233, 2013 Author(s): S. Scollo, M. Coltelli, C. Bonadonna, and P. Del Carlo In this paper we present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Mt. Etna (Italy) associated with both short- and long-lived eruptions. Eruptive scenarios and eruption source parameters were defined based on the geological record, while an advection–diffusion–sedimentation model was used to capture the variation in wind speed and direction with time after calibration with the field data. Two different types of eruptions were considered in our analysis: eruptions associated with strong short-lived plumes and eruptions associated with weak long-lived plumes. Our probabilistic approach was based on one eruption scenario for both types and on an eruption range scenario for eruptions producing weak long-lived plumes. Due to the prevailing wind direction, the eastern flanks are the most affected by tephra deposition, with the 122 BC Plinian and 2002–2003 eruptions showing the highest impact both on infrastructures and agriculture.

Description: Sediment transport on the inner shelf off Khao Lak (Andaman Sea, Thailand) during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and former storm events: evidence from foraminiferal transfer functions Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3113-3128, 2013 Author(s): Y. Milker, M. Wilken, J. Schumann, D. Sakuna, P. Feldens, K. Schwarzer, and G. Schmiedl We have investigated the benthic foraminiferal fauna from sediment event layers associated with the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and former storms that have been retrieved in short sediment cores from offshore environments of the Andaman Sea, off Khao Lak, western Thailand. Species composition and test preservation of the benthic foraminiferal faunas exhibit pronounced changes across the studied sections and provide information on the depositional history of the tsunami layer, particularly on the source water depth of the displaced foraminiferal tests. In order to obtain accurate bathymetric information on sediment provenance, we have mapped the distribution of modern faunas in non-tsunamigenic surface sediments and created a calibration data set for the development of a transfer function. Our quantitative reconstructions revealed that the resuspension of sediment particles by the tsunami wave was restricted to a maximum water depth of approximately 20 m. Similar values were obtained for former storm events, thus impeding an easy distinction of different high-energy events.

Description: Mapping tsunami impacts on land cover and related ecosystem service supply in Phang Nga, Thailand Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3095-3111, 2013 Author(s): G. Kaiser, B. Burkhard, H. Römer, S. Sangkaew, R. Graterol, T. Haitook, H. Sterr, and D. Sakuna-Schwartz The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused damages to coastal ecosystems and thus affected the livelihoods of the coastal communities who depend on services provided by these ecosystems. The paper presents a case study on evaluating and mapping the spatial and temporal impacts of the tsunami on land use and land cover (LULC) and related ecosystem service supply in the Phang Nga province, Thailand. The method includes local stakeholder interviews, field investigations, remote-sensing techniques, and GIS. Results provide an ecosystem services matrix with capacity scores for 18 LULC classes and 17 ecosystem functions and services as well as pre-/post-tsunami and recovery maps indicating changes in the ecosystem service supply capacities in the study area. Local stakeholder interviews revealed that mangroves, casuarina forest, mixed beach forest, coral reefs, tidal inlets, as well as wetlands (peat swamp forest) have the highest capacity to supply ecosystem services, while e.g. plantations have a lower capacity. The remote-sensing based damage and recovery analysis showed a loss of the ecosystem service supply capacities in almost all LULC classes for most of the services due to the tsunami. A fast recovery of LULC and related ecosystem service supply capacities within one year could be observed for e.g. beaches, while mangroves or casuarina forest needed several years to recover. Applying multi-temporal mapping the spatial variations of recovery could be visualised. While some patches of coastal forest were fully recovered after 3 yr, other patches were still affected and thus had a reduced capacity to supply ecosystem services. The ecosystem services maps can be used to quantify ecological values and their spatial distribution in the framework of a tsunami risk assessment. Beyond that they are considered to be a useful tool for spatial analysis in coastal risk management in Phang Nga.

Description: A novel model evaluation approach focussing on local and advected contributions to urban PM 2.5 levels – application to Paris, France Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 6391-6457, 2013 Author(s): H. Petetin, M. Beekmann, J. Sciare, M. Bressi, A. Rosso, O. Sanchez, and V. Ghersi Aerosol simulations in chemistry transport models (CTMs) still suffer from numerous uncertainties, and diagnostic evaluations are required to point out major error sources. This paper presents an original approach to evaluate CTMs based on local and imported contributions in a large megacity rather than urban background concentrations. The study is applied to the CHIMERE model in the Paris region (France) and considers the fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and its main chemical constituents (elemental and organic carbon, nitrate, sulfate and ammonium), for which daily measurements are available during a whole year at various stations (PARTICULES project). Back-trajectory data are used to locate the upwind station, from which the concentration is identified as the import, the local production being deduced from the urban concentration by subtraction. Uncertainties on these contributions are quantified. Small biases in urban background PM 2.5 simulations (bias of +16%) hide significant error compensations between local and advected contributions, as well as in PM 2.5 chemical compounds. In particular, wintertime OM imports appear strongly underestimated while local OM and EC production are overestimated all along the year. Erroneous continental woodburning emissions and missing SOA pathways may explain errors on advected OM, while carbonaceous compounds overestimation is likely to be related to errors in emissions and dynamics. A statistically significant local formation of nitrate is also highlighted from observations, but missed by the model. Together with the overestimation of nitrate imports, it leads to a bias of +51% on the local PM 2.5 contribution. Such an evaluation finally gives more detailed insights on major gaps in current CTMs on which future efforts are needed.

Description: Calibration of a real-time tsunami detection algorithm for sites with no instrumental tsunami records: application to coastal tide-gauge stations in eastern Sicily, Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3129-3144, 2013 Author(s): L. Bressan, F. Zaniboni, and S. Tinti Coastal tide gauges play a very important role in a tsunami warning system, since sea-level data are needed for a correct evaluation of the tsunami threat, and the tsunami arrival has to be recognized as early as possible. Real-time tsunami detection algorithms serve this purpose. For an efficient detection, they have to be calibrated and adapted to the specific local characteristics of the site where they are installed, which is easily done when the station has recorded a sufficiently large number of tsunamis. In this case the recorded database can be used to select the best set of parameters enhancing the discrimination power of the algorithm and minimizing the detection time. This chance is however rare, since most of the coastal tide-gauge stations, either historical or of new installation, have recorded only a few tsunamis in their lifetimes, if any. In this case calibration must be carried out by using synthetic tsunami signals, which poses the problem of how to generate them and how to use them. This paper investigates this issue and proposes a calibration approach by using as an example a specific case, which is the calibration of a real-time detection algorithm called TEDA (Tsunami Early Detection Algorithm) for two stations (namely Tremestieri and Catania) in eastern Sicily, Italy, which were recently installed in the frame of the Italian project TSUNET, aiming at improving the tsunami monitoring capacity in a region that is one of the most hazardous tsunami areas of Italy and of the Mediterranean.

Description: Assessment of flash floods taking into account climate change scenarios in the Llobregat River basin Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 3145-3156, 2013 Author(s): M. Velasco, P. A. Versini, A. Cabello, and A. Barrera-Escoda Global change may imply important changes in the future occurrence and intensity of extreme events. Climate scenarios characterizing these plausible changes were previously obtained for the Llobregat River basin (NE Spain). This paper presents the implementation of these scenarios in the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) hydrological model. Then, the expected changes in terms of flash flood occurrence and intensity are assessed for two different sub-basins: the Alt Llobregat and the Anoia (Llobregat River basin). The assessment of future flash floods has been done in terms of the intensity and occurrence of extreme events, using a peak over threshold (POT) analysis. For these two sub-basins, most of the simulated scenarios present an increase of the intensity of the peak discharge values. On the other hand, the future occurrence follows different trends in the two sub-basins: an increase is observed in Alt Llobregat but a decrease occurs in Anoia. Despite the uncertainties that appear in the whole process, the results obtained can shed some light on how future flash floods events may occur.