ALBERT

Description: Influence of microphysical schemes on atmospheric water in the Weather Research and Forecasting model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4563-4601, 2013 Author(s): F. Cossu and K. Hocke This study examines how different microphysical parameterization schemes influence orographically-induced precipitation and the distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour for mid-latitude summer conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A high-resolution two-dimensional idealized simulation is used to assess the differences between the schemes in which a moist air flow is interacting with a bell-shaped 2 km high mountain. Periodic lateral boundary conditions are chosen to recirculate atmospheric water in the domain. It is found that the 13 selected microphysical schemes conserve the water in the model domain. The gain or loss of water is less than 0.81% over a simulation time interval of 61 days. The differences of the microphysical schemes in terms of the distributions of water vapour, hydrometeors and accumulated precipitation are presented and discussed. The Kessler scheme, the only scheme without ice-phase processes, shows final values of cloud liquid water 14 times greater than the other schemes. The differences among the other schemes are not as extreme, but still they differ up to 79% in water vapour, up to 10 times in hydrometeors and up to 64% in accumulated precipitation at the end of the simulation. The microphysical schemes also differ in the surface evaporation rate. The WRF single-moment 3-class scheme has the highest surface evaporation rate compensated by the highest precipitation rate. The different distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour of the microphysical schemes induce differences up to 49 W m −2 in the downwelling shortwave radiation and up to 33 W m −2 in the downwelling longwave radiation.

Description: Can we determine what controls the spatio-temporal distribution of d-excess and 17 O-excess in precipitation using the LMDZ general circulation model? Climate of the Past, 9, 2173-2193, 2013 Author(s): C. Risi, A. Landais, R. Winkler, and F. Vimeux Combined measurements of the H 2 18 O and HDO isotopic ratios in precipitation, leading to second-order parameter D-excess, have provided additional constraints on past climates compared to the H 2 18 O isotopic ratio alone. More recently, measurements of H 2 17 O have led to another second-order parameter: 17 O-excess. Recent studies suggest that 17 O-excess in polar ice may provide information on evaporative conditions at the moisture source. However, the processes controlling the spatio-temporal distribution of 17 O-excess are still far from being fully understood. We use the isotopic general circulation model (GCM) LMDZ to better understand what controls d-excess and 17 O-excess in precipitation at present-day (PD) and during the last glacial maximum (LGM). The simulation of D-excess and 17 O-excess is evaluated against measurements in meteoric water, water vapor and polar ice cores. A set of sensitivity tests and diagnostics are used to quantify the relative effects of evaporative conditions (sea surface temperature and relative humidity), Rayleigh distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins, precipitation re-evaporation and supersaturation during condensation at low temperature. In LMDZ, simulations suggest that in the tropics convective processes and rain re-evaporation are important controls on precipitation D-excess and 17 O-excess. In higher latitudes, the effect of distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins and supersaturation are the most important controls. For example, the lower d-excess and 17 O-excess at LGM simulated at LGM are mainly due to the supersaturation effect. The effect of supersaturation is however very sensitive to a parameter whose tuning would require more measurements and laboratory experiments. Evaporative conditions had previously been suggested to be key controlling factors of d-excess and 17 O-excess, but LMDZ underestimates their role. More generally, some shortcomings in the simulation of 17 O-excess by LMDZ suggest that general circulation models are not yet the perfect tool to quantify with confidence all processes controlling 17 O-excess.

Description: AnaWEGE: a weather generator based on analogues of atmospheric circulation Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4745-4774, 2013 Author(s): P. Yiou This paper presents a stochastic weather generator based on analogues of circulation (AnaWEGE). Analogues of circulation have been a promising paradigm to analyse climate variability and its extremes. The weather generator uses precomputed analogues of sea-level pressure over the North Atlantic. The stochastic rules of the generator constrain the continuity in time of the simulations. The generator then simulates spatially coherent time series of a climate variable, drawn from meteorological observations. The weather generator is tested for European temperatures, and for winter and summer seasons. The biases in temperature quantiles and autocorrelation are rather small compared to observed variability. The ability of simulating extremely hot summers and cold winters is also assessed.

Description: Methodological aspects of a pattern-scaling approach to produce global fields of monthly means of daily maximum and minimum temperature Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4833-4882, 2013 Author(s): S. Kremser, G. E. Bodeker, and J. Lewis A Climate Pattern-Scaling Model (CPSM) that simulates global patterns of climate change, for a prescribed emissions scenario, is described. A CPSM works by quantitatively establishing the statistical relationship between a climate variable at a specific location (e.g. daily maximum surface temperature, T max ) and one or more predictor time series (e.g. global mean surface temperature, T global ) – referred to as the "training" of the CPSM. This training uses a regression model to derive fit-coefficients that describe the statistical relationship between the predictor time series and the target climate variable time series. Once that relationship has been determined, and given the predictor time series for any greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, the change in the climate variable of interest can be reconstructed – referred to as the "application" of the CPSM. The advantage of using a CPSM rather than a typical atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) is that the predictor time series required by the CPSM can usually be generated quickly using a simple climate model (SCM) for any prescribed GHG emissions scenario and then applied to generate global fields of the climate variable of interest. The training can be performed either on historical measurements or on output from an AOGCM. Using model output from 21st century simulations has the advantage that the climate change signal is more pronounced than in historical data and therefore a more robust statistical relationship is obtained. The disadvantage of using AOGCM output is that the CPSM training might be compromised by any AOGCM inadequacies. For the purposes of exploring the various methodological aspects of the CPSM approach, AOGCM output was used in this study to train the CPSM. These investigations of the CPSM methodology focus on monthly mean fields of daily temperature extremes ( T max and T min ). Key conclusions are: (1) overall, the CPSM trained on simulations based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario is able to reproduce AOGCM simulations of T max and T min based on predictor time series from an RCP 4.5 emissions scenario; (2) access to hemisphere average land and ocean temperatures as predictors improves the variance that can be explained, particularly over the oceans; (3) regression model fit-coefficients derived from individual simulations based on the RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios agree well over most regions of the globe (the Arctic is the exception); (4) training the CPSM on concatenated time series from an ensemble of simulations does not result in fit-coefficients that explain significantly more of the variance than an approach that weights results based on single simulation fits; and (5) the inclusion of a linear time dependence in the regression model fit-coefficients improves the variance explained, primarily over the oceans.

Description: Modeling different freeze/thaw processes in heterogeneous landscapes of the Arctic polygonal tundra using an ecosystem model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4883-4932, 2013 Author(s): given_name prefix surname suffix, S. Yi, K. Wischnewski, M. Langer, S. Muster, and J. Boike Freeze/thaw (F/T) processes can be quite different under the various land surface types found in the heterogeneous polygonal tundra of the Arctic. Proper simulation of these different processes is essential for accurate prediction of the release of greenhouse gases under a warming climate scenario. In this study we have modified the dynamic organic soil version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (DOS-TEM) to simulate F/T processes beneath the polygon rims, polygon centers (with and without water), and lakes that are common features in Arctic lowland regions. We first verified the F/T algorithm in the DOS-TEM against analytical solutions, and then compared the results with in situ measurements from Samoylov Island, Siberia. In the final stage, we examined the different responses of the F/T processes for different water levels at the various land surface types. The simulations revealed that (1) the DOS-TEM was very efficient and its results compared very well with analytical solutions for idealized cases, (2) the simulations compared reasonably well with in situ measurements although there were a number of model limitations and uncertainties, (3) the DOS-TEM was able to successfully simulate the differences in F/T dynamics under different land surface types, and (4) permafrost beneath water bodies was found to respond highly sensitive to changes in water depths between 1 and 2 m. Our results indicate that water is very important in the thermal processes simulated by the DOS-TEM; the heterogeneous nature of the landscape and different water depths therefore need to be taken into account when simulating methane emission responses to a warming climate.

Description: A standard test case suite for two-dimensional linear transport on the sphere: results from a collection of state-of-the-art schemes Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4983-5076, 2013 Author(s): P. H. Lauritzen, P. A. Ullrich, C. Jablonowski, P. A. Bosler, D. Calhoun, A. J. Conley, T. Enomoto, L. Dong, S. Dubey, O. Guba, A. B. Hansen, E. Kaas, J. Kent, J.-F. Lamarque, M. J. Prather, D. Reinert, V. V. Shashkin, W. C. Skamarock, B. Sørensen, M. A. Taylor, and M. A. Tolstykh Recently, a standard test case suite for 2-D linear transport on the sphere was proposed to assess important aspects of accuracy in geophysical fluid dynamics with a "minimal" set of idealized model configurations/runs/diagnostics. Here we present results from 19 state-of-the-art transport scheme formulations based on finite-difference/finite-volume methods as well as emerging (in the context of atmospheric/oceanographic sciences) Galerkin methods. Discretization grids range from traditional regular latitude-longitude grids to more isotropic domain discretizations such as icosahedral and cubed-sphere tessellations of the sphere. The schemes are evaluated using a wide range of diagnostics in idealized flow environments. Accuracy is assessed in single- and two-tracer configurations using conventional error norms as well as novel diagnostics designed for climate and climate-chemistry applications. In addition, algorithmic considerations that may be important for computational efficiency are reported on. The latter is inevitably computing platform dependent, The ensemble of results from a wide variety of schemes presented here helps shed light on the ability of the test case suite diagnostics and flow settings to discriminate between algorithms and provide insights into accuracy in the context of global atmospheric/ocean modeling. A library of benchmark results is provided to facilitate scheme intercomparison and model development. Simple software and data-sets are made available to facilitate the process of model evaluation and scheme intercomparison.

Description: On the analytic approximation of bulk collision rates of non-spherical hydrometeors Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 5077-5116, 2013 Author(s): A. Seifert, U. Blahak, and R. Buhr Analytic approximations of the binary collision rates of hydrometeors are derived for use in bulk microphysical parameterizations. Special attention is given to non-spherical hydrometeors like raindrops and snowflakes. The terminal fall velocity of these particles cannot be sufficiently well approximated by power law relations which are used in most microphysical parameterizations and therefore an improved formulation is needed. The analytic approximations of the bulk collision rates given in this paper are an alternative to look-up tables and can replace the Wisner approximation which is used in many atmospheric models.

Description: Global and regional sea surface temperature trends during Marine Isotope Stage 11 Climate of the Past, 9, 2231-2252, 2013 Author(s): Y. Milker, R. Rachmayani, M. F. G. Weinkauf, M. Prange, M. Raitzsch, M. Schulz, and M. Kučera The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (424–374 ka) was characterized by a protracted deglaciation and an unusually long climatic optimum. It remains unclear to what degree the climate development during this interglacial reflects the unusually weak orbital forcing or greenhouse gas trends. Previously, arguments about the duration and timing of the MIS11 climatic optimum and about the pace of the deglacial warming were based on a small number of key records, which appear to show regional differences. In order to obtain a global signal of climate evolution during MIS11, we compiled a database of 78 sea surface temperature (SST) records from 57 sites spanning MIS11, aligned these individually on the basis of benthic ( N = 28) or planktonic ( N = 31) stable oxygen isotope curves to a common time frame and subjected 48 of them to an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The analysis revealed a high commonality among all records, with the principal SST trend explaining almost 49% of the variability. This trend indicates that on the global scale, the surface ocean underwent rapid deglacial warming during Termination V, in pace with carbon dioxide rise, followed by a broad SST optimum centered at ~410 kyr. The second EOF, which explained ~18% of the variability, revealed the existence of a different SST trend, characterized by a delayed onset of the temperature optimum during MIS11 at ~398 kyr, followed by a prolonged warm period lasting beyond 380 kyr. This trend is most consistently manifested in the mid-latitude North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea and is here attributed to the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. A sensitivity analysis indicates that these results are robust to record selection and to age-model uncertainties of up to 3–6 kyr, but more sensitive to SST seasonal attribution and SST uncertainties 〉1 °C. In order to validate the CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model, version 3) predictive potential, the annual and seasonal SST anomalies recorded in a total of 74 proxy records were compared with runs for three time slices representing orbital configuration extremes during the peak interglacial of MIS11. The modeled SST anomalies are characterized by a significantly lower variance compared to the reconstructions. Nevertheless, significant correlations between proxy and model data are found in comparisons on the seasonal basis, indicating that the model captures part of the long-term variability induced by astronomical forcing, which appears to have left a detectable signature in SST trends.

Description: Ensemble initialization of the oceanic component of a coupled model through bred vectors at seasonal-to-interannual time scales Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 5189-5214, 2013 Author(s): J. Baehr and R. Piontek We evaluate the ensemble spread at seasonal-to-interannual time scales for two perturbation techniques implemented into the ocean component of a coupled model: (1) lagged initial conditions as commonly used for decadal predictions, (2) bred vectors as commonly used for weather and seasonal forecasting. We show that relative to an uninitialized reference simulation the implementation for bred vectors can improve the ensemble spread compared to lagged initialization at time scales from one months up to three years. As bred vectors have so far mostly been used at short time scales, we initially focus on the implementation of the bred vectors into the ocean component. We introduce a depth-dependent vertical rescaling norm, accounting for the vertical dependence of the variability, and extending the commonly used upper-ocean rescaling norm to the full water column. We further show that it is sufficient for the (sub-surface) ocean to breed temperature and salinity (i.e., scalar quantities), and rely on the governing physics to carry the temperature and salinity perturbations to the flow field. Using these bred vectors with a rescaling interval of 12 months, we initialize hindcast simulations and compare them to hindcast simulations initialized with lagged initial conditions. We quantify the ensemble spread by analyzing Talagrand diagrams and spread-error ratios. For both temperature and salinity, the lagged initialized ensemble is particularly under-dispersive for the first few months of predictable lead time. The ensemble initialized with bred vectors improves the spread for temperature and salinity for the 0–700 m and 1000–3500 m means, compared to the lagged ensemble at lead times of several months to one year. As the lead time increases to years, the differences between the two ensemble initialization techniques becomes more difficult to discern. While the results need to be confirmed in an initialized framework, the present analysis represents a first step towards an improved ensemble generation at the transition from seasonal-to-interannual time scales, in particular at lead times up to one year.

Description: Understanding the performance of the FLake model over the African Great Lakes Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 5141-5187, 2013 Author(s): W. Thiery, A. Martynov, F. Darchambeau, J.-P. Descy, P.-D. Plisnier, L. Sushama, and N. P. M. van Lipzig The ability of the one-dimensional lake model FLake to represent the mixolimnion temperatures for tropical conditions was tested for three locations in East Africa: Lake Kivu, Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding Automatic Weather Stations were corrected and used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles served to evaluate the model at each site. Careful forcing data correction and model configuration allowed to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and temperature structure. At Lake Kivu, mixolimnion temperatures predicted by FLake were found sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters (lake depth and water transparency) as to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may already lead to a regime switch from the correctly represented seasonal mixed layer deepening to either completely mixed (down to the model lake bottom) or permanently stratified (from ~10 m downwards) conditions. In contrast, model temperatures are found robust close to the surface, with acceptable predictions of near-surface water temperatures even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. FLake can thus be a suitable tool to parameterize tropical lake water surface temperatures within atmospheric prediction models, but may be less appropriate, in its current form, to study complex limnological processes within tropical lakes. Furthermore, a study of different initial conditions showed that for tropical lakes lacking reliable initial data, a fully mixed, artificially warm initialisation is to be preferred, but only if the model is allowed to spin up until convergence is reached. Finally, FLake was used to attribute the seasonal mixing cycle at Lake Kivu to variations in the near-surface meteorological conditions. It was found that the annual mixing down to 60 m during the main dry season is primarily due to enhanced lake evaporation and secondarily due to the decreased incoming long wave radiation, both causing a significant heat loss from the lake surface and associated mixolimnion cooling.

Description: Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene Climate of the Past, 9, 811-823, 2013 Author(s): J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi Paleoclimate simulations provide us with an opportunity to critically confront and evaluate the performance of climate models in simulating the response of the climate system to changes in radiative forcing and other boundary conditions. Hargreaves et al. (2011) analysed the reliability of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, PMIP2 model ensemble with respect to the MARGO sea surface temperature data synthesis (MARGO Project Members, 2009) for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP). Here we extend that work to include a new comprehensive collection of land surface data (Bartlein et al., 2011), and introduce a novel analysis of the predictive skill of the models. We include output from the PMIP3 experiments, from the two models for which suitable data are currently available. We also perform the same analyses for the PMIP2 mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) ensembles and available proxy data sets. Our results are predominantly positive for the LGM, suggesting that as well as the global mean change, the models can reproduce the observed pattern of change on the broadest scales, such as the overall land–sea contrast and polar amplification, although the more detailed sub-continental scale patterns of change remains elusive. In contrast, our results for the mid-Holocene are substantially negative, with the models failing to reproduce the observed changes with any degree of skill. One cause of this problem could be that the globally- and annually-averaged forcing anomaly is very weak at the mid-Holocene, and so the results are dominated by the more localised regional patterns in the parts of globe for which data are available. The root cause of the model-data mismatch at these scales is unclear. If the proxy calibration is itself reliable, then representativity error in the data-model comparison, and missing climate feedbacks in the models are other possible sources of error.

Description: Stable isotopic evidence of El Niño-like atmospheric circulation in the Pliocene western United States Climate of the Past, 9, 903-912, 2013 Author(s): M. J. Winnick, J. M. Welker, and C. P. Chamberlain Understanding how the hydrologic cycle has responded to warmer global temperatures in the past is especially important today as concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere continue to increase due to human activities. The Pliocene offers an ideal window into a climate system that has equilibrated with current atmospheric p CO 2 . During the Pliocene the western United States was wetter than modern, an observation at odds with our current understanding of future warming scenarios, which involve the expansion and poleward migration of the subtropical dry zone. Here we compare Pliocene oxygen isotope profiles of pedogenic carbonates across the western US to modern isotopic anomalies in precipitation between phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We find that when accounting for seasonality of carbonate formation, isotopic changes through the late Pliocene match modern precipitation isotopic anomalies in El Niño years. Furthermore, isotopic shifts through the late Pliocene mirror changes through the early Pleistocene, which likely represents the southward migration of the westerly storm track caused by growth of the Laurentide ice sheet. We propose that the westerly storm track migrated northward through the late Pliocene with the development of the modern cold tongue in the east equatorial Pacific, then returned southward with widespread glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere – a scenario supported by terrestrial climate proxies across the US. Together these data support the proposed existence of background El Niño-like conditions in western North America during the warm Pliocene. If the earth behaves similarly with future warming, this observation has important implications with regard to the amount and distribution of precipitation in western North America.

Description: Mass-movement and flood-induced deposits in Lake Ledro, southern Alps, Italy: implications for Holocene palaeohydrology and natural hazards Climate of the Past, 9, 825-840, 2013 Author(s): A. Simonneau, E. Chapron, B. Vannière, S. B. Wirth, A. Gilli, C. Di Giovanni, F. S. Anselmetti, M. Desmet, and M. Magny High-resolution seismic profiles and sediment cores from Lake Ledro combined with soil and riverbed samples from the lake's catchment area are used to assess the recurrence of natural hazards (earthquakes and flood events) in the southern Italian Alps during the Holocene. Two well-developed deltas and a flat central basin are identified on seismic profiles in Lake Ledro. Lake sediments have been finely laminated in the basin since 9000 cal. yr BP and frequently interrupted by two types of sedimentary events (SEs): light-coloured massive layers and dark-coloured graded beds. Optical analysis (quantitative organic petrography) of the organic matter present in soil, riverbed and lacustrine samples together with lake sediment bulk density and grain-size analysis illustrate that light-coloured layers consist of a mixture of lacustrine sediments and mainly contain algal particles similar to the ones observed in background sediments. Light-coloured layers thicker than 1.5 cm in the main basin of Lake Ledro are synchronous to numerous coeval mass-wasting deposits remoulding the slopes of the basin. They are interpreted as subaquatic mass-movements triggered by historical and pre-historical regional earthquakes dated to AD 2005, AD 1891, AD 1045 and 1260, 2545, 2595, 3350, 3815, 4740, 7190, 9185 and 11 495 cal. yr BP. Dark-coloured SEs develop high-amplitude reflections in front of the deltas and in the deep central basin. These beds are mainly made of terrestrial organic matter (soils and lignocellulosic debris) and are interpreted as resulting from intense hyperpycnal flood event. Mapping and quantifying the amount of soil material accumulated in the Holocene hyperpycnal flood deposits of the sequence allow estimating that the equivalent soil thickness eroded over the catchment area reached up to 5 mm during the largest Holocene flood events. Such significant soil erosion is interpreted as resulting from the combination of heavy rainfall and snowmelt. The recurrence of flash flood events during the Holocene was, however, not high enough to affect pedogenesis processes and highlight several wet regional periods during the Holocene. The Holocene period is divided into four phases of environmental evolution. Over the first half of the Holocene, a progressive stabilization of the soils present through the catchment of Lake Ledro was associated with a progressive reforestation of the area and only interrupted during the wet 8.2 event when the soil destabilization was particularly important. Lower soil erosion was recorded during the mid-Holocene climatic optimum (8000–4200 cal. yr BP) and associated with higher algal production. Between 4200 and 3100 cal. yr BP, both wetter climate and human activities within the drainage basin drastically increased soil erosion rates. Finally, from 3100 cal. yr BP to the present-day, data suggest increasing and changing human land use.

Description: Using data assimilation to investigate the causes of Southern Hemisphere high latitude cooling from 10 to 8 ka BP Climate of the Past, 9, 887-901, 2013 Author(s): P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina From 10 to 8 ka BP (thousand years before present), paleoclimate records show an atmospheric and oceanic cooling in the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. During this interval, temperatures estimated from proxy data decrease by 0.8 °C over Antarctica and 1.2 °C over the Southern Ocean. In order to study the causes of this cooling, simulations covering the early Holocene have been performed with the climate model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM constrained to follow the signal recorded in climate proxies using a data assimilation method based on a particle filtering approach. The selected proxies represent oceanic and atmospheric surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere derived from terrestrial, marine and glaciological records. Two mechanisms previously suggested to explain the 10–8 ka BP cooling pattern are investigated using the data assimilation approach in our model. The first hypothesis is a change in atmospheric circulation, and the second one is a cooling of the sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean, driven in our experimental setup by the impact of an increased West Antarctic melting rate on ocean circulation. For the atmosphere hypothesis, the climate state obtained by data assimilation produces a modification of the meridional atmospheric circulation leading to a 0.5 °C Antarctic cooling from 10 to 8 ka BP compared to the simulation without data assimilation, without congruent cooling of the atmospheric and sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean. For the ocean hypothesis, the increased West Antarctic freshwater flux constrainted by data assimilation (+100 mSv from 10 to 8 ka BP) leads to an oceanic cooling of 0.7 °C and a strengthening of Southern Hemisphere westerlies (+6%). Thus, according to our experiments, the observed cooling in Antarctic and the Southern Ocean proxy records can only be reconciled with the reconstructions by the combination of a modified atmospheric circulation and an enhanced freshwater flux.

Description: The mid-Pliocene climate simulated by FGOALS-g2 Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 2403-2428, 2013 Author(s): W. Zheng, Z. Zhang, L. Chen, and Y. Yu Within the framework of Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), the mid-Pliocene (3.264–3.025 Ma) climate simulated by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model grid-point version 2 (FGOALS-g2) are analyzed in this study. Results show that the model reproduces the large-scale features of the global warming over the land and ocean. The simulated mid-Pliocene global annual mean surface air temperature (TAS) and sea surface temperature (SST) are 4.17 and 2.62°C warmer than the pre-Industrial simulation, respectively. In particular, the feature of larger warming over mid-high latitudes is well captured. In the simulated warm mid-Pliocene climate, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) become weaker.

Description: The potential of an observational data set for calibration of a computationally expensive computer model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 2369-2401, 2013 Author(s): D. J. McNeall, P. G. Challenor, J. R. Gattiker, and E. J. Stone We measure the potential of an observational data set to constrain a set of inputs to a complex and computationally expensive computer model. We use each member in turn of an ensemble of output from a computationally expensive model, corresponding to some observable part of a modelled system, as a proxy for an observational data set. We argue that our ability to constrain uncertain parameter inputs to a model using its own output as data, provides a maximum bound for our ability to constrain the model inputs using observations of the real system. The ensemble provides a set of known parameter input and model output pairs, which we use to build a computationally efficient statistical proxy for the full computer model, termed an emulator. We use the emulator to find and rule out ''implausible" values for the inputs of held-out ensemble members, given the computer model output. As we know the true values of the inputs for the ensemble, we can compare our constraint of the model inputs with the true value of the input for any ensemble member. Measures of the quality of constraint have the potential to inform strategy for data collection campaigns, before any real-world data is collected, as well as acting as an effective sensitivity analysis. We use an ensemble of the ice sheet model Glimmer to demonstrate our measures of quality of constraint. The ensemble has 250 model runs with 5 uncertain input parameters, and an output variable representing the pattern of the thickness of ice over Greenland. We have an observation of historical ice sheet thickness that directly matches the output variable, and offers an opportunity to constrain the model. We show that different ways of summarising our output variable (ice volume, ice surface area and maximum ice thickness) offer different potential constraints on individual input parameters. We show that combining the observational data gives increased power to constrain the model. We investigate the impact of uncertainty in observations or in model biases on our measures, showing that even a modest uncertainty can seriously degrade the potential of the observational data to constrain the model.

Description: Model sensitivity to North Atlantic freshwater forcing at 8.2 ka Climate of the Past, 9, 955-968, 2013 Author(s): C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner We compared four simulations of the 8.2 ka event to assess climate model sensitivity and skill in responding to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations. All of the simulations used the same freshwater forcing, 2.5 Sv for one year, applied to either the Hudson Bay (northeastern Canada) or Labrador Sea (between Canada's Labrador coast and Greenland). This freshwater pulse induced a decadal-mean slowdown of 10–25% in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of the models and caused a large-scale pattern of climate anomalies that matched proxy evidence for cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The multi-model ensemble generated temperature anomalies that were just half as large as those from quantitative proxy reconstructions, however. Also, the duration of AMOC and climate anomalies in three of the simulations was only several decades, significantly shorter than the duration of ~150 yr in the paleoclimate record. Possible reasons for these discrepancies include incorrect representation of the early Holocene climate and ocean state in the North Atlantic and uncertainties in the freshwater forcing estimates.

Description: On searching for optimized set of physical parameterization schemes in a multi-physics land surface process model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4511-4530, 2013 Author(s): S. Hong, X. Yu, S. K. Park, Y.-S. Choi, and B. Myoung Optimization of land surface models has been very challenging due to the increasing complexity of such models. Typical parameter calibration techniques often limit the solution of the spatiotemporal discrepancy in the modeling performance levels especially for regional applications. Thus, in this study, an attempt was made to perform scheme-based model optimization by designing a framework for coupling a micro-genetic algorithm (micro-GA) with the Noah land surface model that has multiple physics options (Noah-MP). Micro-GA controls the scheme selections in 10 different land surface parameterization fields in Noah-MP in order to extract the optimal scheme combination for a certain region. This coupling framework was successfully applied to the optimization of the surface water partitioning in the Korean Peninsula, promising not only the effectiveness of the scheme-based optimization but also model diagnosis capability by exploring the scheme sensitivity during the micro-GA evolution process. Then, the method was applied to four different regions in East Asia that have different climatic characteristics. The results indicate that (1) the optimal scheme combinations vary with the regions, (2) schemes related to the surface water partitioning are important for the modeling accuracy, and (3) specialized post-parameter optimization for each region may be required.

Description: Atmospheric inverse modeling with known physical bounds: an example from trace gas emissions Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4531-4562, 2013 Author(s): S. M. Miller, A. M. Michalak, and P. J. Levi Many inverse problems in the atmospheric sciences involve parameters with known physical constraints. Examples include non-negativity (e.g., emissions of some urban air pollutants) or upward limits implied by reaction or solubility constants. However, probabilistic inverse modeling approaches based on Gaussian assumptions cannot incorporate such bounds and thus often produce unrealistic results. The atmospheric literature lacks consensus on the best means to overcome this problem, and existing atmospheric studies rely on a limited number of the possible methods with little examination of the relative merits of each. This paper investigates the applicability of several approaches to bounded inverse problems and is also the first application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to estimation of atmospheric trace gas fluxes. The approaches discussed here are broadly applicable. A common method of data transformations is found to unrealistically skew estimates for the examined example application. The method of Lagrange multipliers and two MCMC methods yield more realistic and accurate results. In general, the examined MCMC approaches produce the most realistic result but can require substantial computational time. Lagrange multipliers offer an appealing alternative for large, computationally intensive problems when exact uncertainty bounds are less central to the analysis. A synthetic data inversion of US anthropogenic methane emissions illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of each approach.

Description: A mid-Holocene climate reconstruction for eastern South America Climate of the Past, 9, 2117-2133, 2013 Author(s): L. F. Prado, I. Wainer, C. M. Chiessi, M.-P. Ledru, and B. Turcq The mid-Holocene (6000 calibrated years before present) is a key period in palaeoclimatology because incoming summer insolation was lower than during the late Holocene in the Southern Hemisphere, whereas the opposite happened in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the effects of the decreased austral summer insolation over South American climate have been poorly discussed by palaeodata syntheses. In addition, only a few of the regional studies have characterised the mid-Holocene climate in South America through a multiproxy approach. Here, we present a multiproxy compilation of mid-Holocene palaeoclimate data for eastern South America. We compiled 120 palaeoclimatological datasets, which were published in 84 different papers. The palaeodata analysed here suggest a water deficit scenario in the majority of eastern South America during the mid-Holocene if compared to the late Holocene, with the exception of northeastern Brazil. Low mid-Holocene austral summer insolation caused a reduced land–sea temperature contrast and hence a weakened South American monsoon system circulation. This scenario is represented by a decrease in precipitation over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone area, saltier conditions along the South American continental margin, and lower lake levels.

Description: A database and tool for boundary conditions for regional air quality modeling: description and evaluation Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4665-4704, 2013 Author(s): B. H. Henderson, F. Akhtar, H. O. T. Pye, S. L. Napelenok, and W. T. Hutzell Transported air pollutants receive increasing attention as regulations tighten and global concentrations increase. The need to represent international transport in regional air quality assessments requires improved representation of boundary concentrations. Currently available observations are too sparse vertically to provide boundary information, particularly for ozone precursors, but global simulations can be used to generate spatially and temporally varying Lateral Boundary Conditions (LBC). This study presents a public database of global simulations designed and evaluated for use as LBC for air quality models (AQMs). The database covers the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the years 2000–2010 and contains hourly varying concentrations of ozone, aerosols, and their precursors. The database is complimented by a tool for configuring the global results as inputs to regional scale models (e.g., Community Multiscale Air Quality or Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions). This study also presents an example application based on the CONUS domain, which is evaluated against satellite retrieved ozone vertical profiles. The results show performance is largely within uncertainty estimates for the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) with some exceptions. The major difference shows a high bias in the upper troposphere along the southern boundary in January. This publication documents the global simulation database, the tool for conversion to LBC, and the fidelity of concentrations on the boundaries. This documentation is intended to support applications that require representation of long-range transport of air pollutants.

Description: Effects of vegetation structure on biomass accumulation in a Balanced Optimality Structure Vegetation Model (BOSVM v1.0) Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4603-4663, 2013 Author(s): Z. Yin, S. C. Dekker, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, and H. A. Dijkstra A myriad of interactions exist between vegetation and local climate for arid and semi-arid regions. Vegetation function, structure and individual behavior have large impacts on carbon-water-energy balances, which consequently influence local climate variability that, in turn, feeds back to the vegetation. In this study, a conceptual vegetation structure scheme is formulated and tested in a new carbon-water-energy coupled model to explore the importance of vegetation structure and vegetation adaptation to water stress on equilibrium biomass states. Surface energy, water and carbon fluxes are simulated for a range of vegetation structures across a precipitation gradient in West Africa and optimal vegetation structures that maximizes biomass for each precipitation regime are determined. Two different strategies of vegetation adaptation to water stress are included. Under dry conditions vegetation tries to maximize the Water Use Efficiency and Leaf Area Index as it tries to maximize carbon gain. However, an important negative feedback mechanism is found as the vegetation also tries to minimize its cover to optimize the surrounding bare ground area from which water can be extracted, thereby forming patches of vertical vegetation. Under larger precipitation, a positive feedback mechanism is found in which vegetation tries to maximize its cover as it then can reduce water loss from bare soil while having maximum carbon gain due to a large Leaf Area Index. The competition between vegetation and bare soil determines a transition between a "survival" state to a "growing" state.

Description: Glacial fluctuations of the Indian monsoon and their relationship with North Atlantic climate: new data and modelling experiments Climate of the Past, 9, 2135-2151, 2013 Author(s): C. Marzin, N. Kallel, M. Kageyama, J.-C. Duplessy, and P. Braconnot Several paleoclimate records such as from Chinese loess, speleothems or upwelling indicators in marine sediments present large variations of the Asian monsoon system during the last glaciation. Here, we present a new record from the northern Andaman Sea (core MD77-176) which shows the variations of the hydrological cycle of the Bay of Bengal. The high-resolution record of surface water δ 18 O dominantly reflects salinity changes and displays large millennial-scale oscillations over the period 40 000 to 11 000 yr BP. Their timing and sequence suggests that events of high (resp. low) salinity in the Bay of Bengal, i.e. weak (resp. strong) Indian monsoon, correspond to cold (resp. warm) events in the North Atlantic and Arctic, as documented by the Greenland ice core record. We use the IPSL_CM4 Atmosphere-Ocean coupled General Circulation Model to study the processes that could explain the teleconnection between the Indian monsoon and the North Atlantic climate. We first analyse a numerical experiment in which such a rapid event in the North Atlantic is obtained under glacial conditions by increasing the freshwater flux in the North Atlantic, which results in a reduction of the intensity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. This freshwater hosing results in a weakening of the Indian monsoon rainfall and circulation. The changes in the continental runoff and local hydrological cycle are responsible for an increase in salinity in the Bay of Bengal. This therefore compares favourably with the new sea water δ 18 O record presented here and the hypothesis of synchronous cold North Atlantic and weak Indian monsoon events. Additional sensitivity experiments are produced with the LMDZ atmospheric model to analyse the teleconnection mechanisms between the North Atlantic and the Indian monsoon. The changes over the tropical Atlantic are shown to be essential in triggering perturbations of the subtropical jet over Africa and Eurasia, that in turn affect the intensity of the Indian monsoon. These relationships are also found to be valid in additional coupled model simulations in which the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is forced to resume.

Description: A distributed computing approach to improve the performance of the Parallel Ocean Program (v2.1) Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4705-4744, 2013 Author(s): B. van Werkhoven, J. Maassen, M. Kliphuis, H. A. Dijkstra, S. E. Brunnabend, M. van Meersbergen, F. J. Seinstra, and H. E. Bal The Parallel Ocean Program (POP) is used in many strongly eddying ocean circulation simulations. Ideally one would like to do thousand-year long simulations, but the current performance of POP prohibits this type of simulations. In this work, using a new distributed computing approach, two innovations to improve the performance of POP are presented. The first is a new block partitioning scheme for the optimization of the load balancing of POP such that it can be run efficiently in a multi-platform setting. The second is an implementation of part of the POP model code on Graphics Processing Units. We show that the combination of both innovations leads to a substantial performance increase also when running POP simultaneously over multiple computational platforms.

Description: Mid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East Asia Climate of the Past, 9, 2153-2171, 2013 Author(s): Z. Tian and D. Jiang Mid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East Asia are investigated by a set of numerical experiments performed with the version 4 of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). With reference to the pre-industrial period, most of the mid-Holocene annual and seasonal surface-air temperature and precipitation changes are found to result from a direct response of the atmosphere to insolation forcing, while dynamic ocean and vegetation modulate regional climate of East Asia to some extent. Because of its thermal inertia, the dynamic ocean induced an additional warming of 0.2 K for the annual mean, 0.5 K in winter (December–February), 0.0003 K in summer (June–August), and 1.0 K in autumn (September–November), but a cooling of 0.6 K in spring (March–May) averaged over China, and it counteracted (amplified) the direct effect of insolation forcing for the annual mean and in winter and autumn (spring) for that period. The dynamic vegetation had an area-average impact of no more than 0.4 K on the mid-Holocene annual and seasonal temperatures over China, with an average cooling of 0.2 K for the annual mean. On the other hand, ocean feedback induced a small increase of precipitation in winter (0.04 mm day −1 ) and autumn (0.05 mm day −1 ), but a reduction for the annual mean (0.14 mm day −1 ) and in spring (0.29 mm day −1 ) and summer (0.34 mm day −1 ) over China, while it also suppressed the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. The effect of dynamic vegetation on the mid-Holocene annual and seasonal precipitation was comparatively small, ranging from −0.03 mm day −1 to 0.06 mm day −1 averaged over China. In comparison, the CCSM4 simulated annual and winter cooling over China agrees with simulations within the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), but the results are contrary to the warming reconstructed from multiple proxy data for the mid-Holocene. Ocean feedback narrows this model–data mismatch, whereas vegetation feedback plays an opposite role but with a level of uncertainty.

Description: Inherently mass-conservative version of the semi-Lagrangian Absolute Vorticity (SL-AV) atmospheric model dynamical core Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4809-4832, 2013 Author(s): V. V. Shashkin and M. A. Tolstykh The semi-Lagrangian Absolute Vorticity (SL-AV) atmospheric model is the global semi-Lagrangian hydrostatic model used for operational medium-range and seasonal forecasts at Hydrometeorological centre of Russia. The distinct feature of SL-AV dynamical core is the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian vorticity-divergence formulation on the unstaggered grid. Semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian approach allows for long time steps while violates the global and local mass-conservation. In particular, the total mass in simulations with semi-Lagrangian models can drift significantly if no aposteriori mass-fixing algorithms are applied. However, the global mass-fixing algorithms degrade the local mass conservation. The inherently mass-conservative version of SL-AV model dynamical core presented in the article ensures global and local mass conservation without mass-fixing algorithms. The mass conservation is achieved with the introduction of the finite-volume semi-Lagrangian discretization for continuity equation based on the 3-D extension of the conservative cascade semi-Lagrangian transport scheme (CCS). The numerical experiments show that the presented new version of SL-AV dynamical core combines the accuracy and stability of the standard SL-AV dynamical core with the mass-conservation properties. The results of the mountain induced Rossby wave test and baroclinic instability test for mass-conservative dynamical core are found to be in agreement with the results available in literature.

Description: A fast input/output library for high resolution climate models Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4775-4807, 2013 Author(s): X. Huang, W. Wang, H. Fu, G. Yang, B. Wang, and C. Zhang We describe the design and implementation of Climate Fast Input/Output (CFIO), a fast input/output (I/O) library for high resolution climate models. CFIO provides a simple method for modelers to overlap the I/O phase with the computing phase automatically, so as to shorten the running time of numerical simulations. To minimize the code modifications required for porting, CFIO provides similar interfaces and features to Parallel network Common Data Form (PnetCDF), which is one of the most widely used I/O libraries in climate models. We deployed CFIO in three high resolution climate models, including two ocean models (POP and LICOM) and one sea ice model (CICE). The experimental results show that CFIO improves the performance of climate models significantly versus the original serial I/O approach. When running with CFIO at 0.1° resolution with about 1000 CPU cores, we managed to reduce the running time by factors of 7.9, 4.6 and 2.0 for POP, CICE, and LICOM respectively. We also compared the performance of CFIO against PnetCDF in different scenarios. For scenarios with both data output operations and computations, CFIO decreases the I/O overhead by a factor of 5.1 compared to PnetCDF.

Description: Water-soluble organic carbon in snow and ice deposited at Alpine, Greenland, and Antarctic sites: a critical review of available data and their atmospheric relevance Climate of the Past, 9, 2195-2211, 2013 Author(s): M. Legrand, S. Preunkert, B. Jourdain, J. Guilhermet, X. Fa{ï}n, I. Alekhina, and J. R. Petit While it is now recognized that organic matter dominates the present-day atmospheric aerosol load over continents, its sources remain poorly known. The studies of organic species or organic fractions trapped in ice cores may help to overcome this lack of knowledge. Available data on the dissolved (or total) organic carbon (DOC or TOC) content of snow and ice often appear largely inconsistent, and, until now, no critical review has been conducted to understand the causes of these inconsistencies. To draw a more consistent picture of the organic carbon amount present in solid precipitation that accumulates on cold glaciers, we here review available data and, when needed, complete the data set with analyses of selected samples. The different data sets are then discussed by considering the age (modern versus pre-industrial, Holocene versus Last glacial Maximum) and type (surface snow, firn, or ice) of investigated samples, the deployed method, and the applied contamination control. Finally, the OC (DOC or TOC) levels of Antarctic, Greenland, and Alpine ice cores are compared and discussed with respect to natural (biomass burning, vegetation emissions) and anthropogenic sources (fossil fuel combustion) contributing to atmospheric OC aerosol.

Description: Application and evaluation of McICA scheme with new radiation code in BCC_AGCM2.0.1 Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4933-4982, 2013 Author(s): given_name prefix surname suffix, H. Zhang, X. Jing, and J. Li This research incorporates the Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation (McICA) scheme with the correlated k-distribution BCC-RAD radiation model into the climate model BCC_AGCM2.0.1 and examines the impacts on modeled climate through several simulations with variations in cloud structures. Results from experiments with consistent sub-grid cloud structures show that both clear-sky radiation fluxes and cloud radiative forcings (CRFs) calculated by the new scheme are mostly improved relative to those calculated from the original one. The modeled atmospheric temperature and specific humidity are also improved due to changes in the radiative heating rates. The vertical overlap of fractional clouds and horizontal distribution of cloud condensation are important for computing CRFs. The maximum changes in seasonal CRF using the general overlap assumption (GenO) with different decorrelation depths ( L cf ) are larger than 10 and 20 Wm 2 for longwave (LW) CRF and shortwave (SW) CRF, respectively, mostly located in the Tropics and mid-latitude storm tracks. Larger (smaller) L cf in the Tropics (mid-latitude storm tracks) yield better cloud fraction and CRF compared with observations. The inclusion of an observation-based horizontal inhomogeneity of cloud condensation has a distinct impact on LW CRF and SW CRF, with global means of ∼1.2 Wm −2 and ∼3.7 Wm −2 at the top of atmosphere, respectively, making these much closer to observations. These results prove the reliability of the new model configuration to be used in BCC_AGCM2.0.1 for climate simulations, and also indicate that more detailed real-world information on cloud structures should be obtained to constrain cloud settings in McICA in the future.

Description: Extreme extension across Seram and Ambon, eastern Indonesia: evidence for Banda slab rollback Solid Earth, 4, 277-314, 2013 Author(s): J. M. Pownall, R. Hall, and I. M. Watkinson The island of Seram, which lies in the northern part of the 180°-curved Banda Arc, has previously been interpreted as a fold-and-thrust belt formed during arc-continent collision, which incorporates ophiolites intruded by granites thought to have been produced by anatexis within a metamorphic sole. However, new geological mapping and a re-examination of the field relations cause us to question this model. We instead propose that there is evidence for recent and rapid N–S extension that has caused the high-temperature exhumation of lherzolites beneath low-angle lithospheric detachment faults that induced high-temperature metamorphism and melting in overlying crustal rocks. These "Kobipoto Complex" migmatites include highly residual Al–Mg-rich garnet + cordierite + sillimanite + spinel + corundum granulites (exposed in the Kobipoto Mountains) which contain coexisting spinel + quartz, indicating that peak metamorphic temperatures likely approached 900 °C. Associated with these residual granulites are voluminous Mio-Pliocene granitic diatexites, or "cordierite granites", which crop out on Ambon, western Seram, and in the Kobipoto Mountains and incorporate abundant schlieren of spinel- and sillimanite-bearing residuum. Quaternary "ambonites" (cordierite + garnet dacites) emplaced on Ambon were also evidently sourced from the Kobipoto Complex migmatites as demonstrated by granulite-inherited xenoliths. Exhumation of the hot peridotites and granulite-facies Kobipoto Complex migmatites to shallower structural levels caused greenschist- to lower-amphibolite facies metapelites and amphibolites of the Tehoru Formation to be overprinted by sillimanite-grade metamorphism, migmatisation, and limited localised anatexis to form the Taunusa Complex. The extreme extension required to have driven Kobipoto Complex exhumation evidently occurred throughout Seram and along much of the northern Banda Arc. The lherzolites must have been juxtaposed against the crust at typical lithospheric mantle temperatures in order to account for such high-temperature metamorphism and therefore could not have been part of a cooled ophiolite. In central Seram, lenses of peridotites are incorporated with a major left-lateral strike-slip shear zone (the "Kawa Shear Zone"), demonstrating that strike-slip motions likely initiated shortly after the mantle had been partly exhumed by detachment faulting and that the main strike-slip faults may themselves be reactivated and steepened low-angle detachments. The geodynamic driver for mantle exhumation along the detachment faults and strike-slip faulting in central Seram is very likely the same; we interpret the extreme extension to be the result of eastward slab rollback into the Banda Embayment as outlined by the latest plate reconstructions for Banda Arc evolution.

Description: A regional climate modelling projection ensemble experiment – NARCliM Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 5117-5139, 2013 Author(s): J. P. Evans, F. Ji, C. Lee, P. Smith, D. Argüeso, and L. Fita Including the impacts of climate change in decision making and planning processes is a challenge facing many regional governments including the New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) governments in Australia. NARCliM (NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling project) is a regional climate modelling project that aims to provide a comprehensive and consistent set of climate projections that can be used by all relevant government departments when considering climate change. To maximise end user engagement and ensure outputs are relevant to the planning process, a series of stakeholder workshops were run to define key aspects of the model experiment including spatial resolution, time slices, and output variables. As with all such experiments, practical considerations limit the number of ensembles members that can be simulated such that choices must be made concerning which Global Climate Models (GCMs) to downscale from, and which Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to downscale with. Here a methodology for making these choices is proposed that aims to sample the uncertainty in both GCMs and RCMs, as well as spanning the range of future climate projections present in the full GCM ensemble. The created ensemble provides a more robust view of future regional climate changes.

Description: Major dust events in Europe during marine isotope stage 5 (130–74 ka): a climatic interpretation of the "markers" Climate of the Past, 9, 2213-2230, 2013 Author(s): D.-D. Rousseau, M. Ghil, G. Kukla, A. Sima, P. Antoine, M. Fuchs, C. Hatté, F. Lagroix, M. Debret, and O. Moine At present, major dust storms are occurring at mid-latitudes in the Middle East and Asia, as well as at low latitudes in Northern Africa and in Australia. Western Europe, though, does not experience such dramatic climate events, except for some African dust reaching it from the Sahara. This modern situation is of particular interest, in the context of future climate projections, since the present interglacial is usually interpreted, in this context, as an analog of the warm Eemian interval. European terrestrial records show, however, major dust events during the penultimate interglacial and early glacial. These events are easily observed in loess records by their whitish-color deposits, which lie above and below dark chernozem paleosols in Central European records of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 age. We describe here the base of the Dolni Vestonice (DV) loess sequence, Czech Republic, as the reference of such records. The dust is deposited during intervals that are characterized by poor vegetation – manifested by high δ 13 C values and low magnetic susceptibility – while the fine sand and clay in the deposits shows grain sizes that are clearly different from the overlying pleniglacial loess deposits. Some of these dust events have been previously described as "Markers" or Marker Silts (MS) by one of us (G. Kukla), and are dated at about 111–109 ka and 93–92 ka, with a third and last one slightly visible at about 75–73 ka. Other events correspond to the loess material of Kukla's cycles, and are described as eolian silts (ES); they are observed in the same DV sequence and are dated at about 106–105 ka, 88–86 ka, and 78.5–77 ka. These dates are determined by considering the OSL ages with their errors measured on the studied sequence, and the comparison with Greenland ice-core and European speleothem chronologies. The fine eolian deposits mentioned above, MS as well as ES, correspond to short events that lasted about 2 ka; they are synchronous with re-advances of the polar front over the North Atlantic, as observed in marine sediment cores. These deposits also correlate with important changes observed in European vegetation. Some ES and MS events appear to be coeval with significant dust peaks recorded in the Greenland ice cores, while others are not. This decoupling between the European eolian and Greenland dust depositions is of considerable interest, as it differs from the fully glacial situation, in which the Eurasian loess sedimentation mimics the Greenland dust record. Previous field observations supported an interpretation of MS events as caused by continental dust storms. We show here, by a comparison with speleothems of the same age found in the northern Alps, that different atmospheric-circulation modes seem to be responsible for the two categories of dust events, MS vs. ES.

Description: Laminated sediments in the Bering Sea reveal atmospheric teleconnections to Greenland climate on millennial to decadal timescales during the last deglaciation Climate of the Past, 10, 2215-2236, 2014 Author(s): H. Kuehn, L. Lembke-Jene, R. Gersonde, O. Esper, F. Lamy, H. Arz, G. Kuhn, and R. Tiedemann During the last glacial termination, the upper North Pacific Ocean underwent dramatic and rapid changes in oxygenation that lead to the transient intensification of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), recorded by the widespread occurrence of laminated sediments on circum-Pacific continental margins. We present a new laminated sediment record from the mid-depth (1100 m) northern Bering Sea margin that provides insight into these deglacial OMZ maxima with exceptional, decadal-scale detail. Combined ultrahigh-resolution micro-X-ray-fluorescence (micro-XRF) data and sediment facies analysis of laminae reveal an alternation between predominantly terrigenous and diatom-dominated opal sedimentation. The diatomaceous laminae are interpreted to represent spring/summer productivity events related to the retreating sea ice margin. We identified five laminated sections in the deglacial part of our site. Lamina counts were carried out on these sections and correlated with the Bølling–Allerød and Preboreal phases in the North Greenland Ice Core (NGRIP) oxygen isotope record, indicating an annual deposition of individual lamina couplets (varves). The observed rapid decadal intensifications of anoxia, in particular within the Bølling–Allerød, are tightly coupled to short-term warm events through increases in regional export production. This dependence of laminae formation on warmer temperatures is underlined by a correlation with published Bering Sea sea surface temperature records and δ 18 O data of planktic foraminifera from the Gulf of Alaska. The rapidity of the observed changes strongly implies a close atmospheric teleconnection between North Pacific and North Atlantic regions. We suggest that concomitant increases in export production and subsequent remineralization of organic matter in the Bering Sea, in combination with oxygen-poor waters entering the Being Sea, drove down oxygen concentrations to values below 0.1 mL L −1 and caused laminae preservation. Calculated benthic–planktic ventilation ages show no significant variations throughout the last deglaciation, indicating that changes in formation rates or differing sources of North Pacific mid-depth waters are not prime candidates for strengthening the OMZ at our site. The age models established by our correlation procedure allow for the determination of calendar age control points for the Bølling–Allerød and the Preboreal that are independent of the initial radiocarbon-based chronology. Resulting surface reservoir ages range within 730–990 yr during the Bølling–Allerød, 800–1100 yr in the Younger Dryas, and 765–775 yr for the Preboreal.

Description: Implication of methodological uncertainties for mid-Holocene sea surface temperature reconstructions Climate of the Past, 10, 2237-2252, 2014 Author(s): I. Hessler, S. P. Harrison, M. Kucera, C. Waelbroeck, M.-T. Chen, C. Anderson, A. de Vernal, B. Fréchette, A. Cloke-Hayes, G. Leduc, and L. Londeix We present and examine a multi-sensor global compilation of mid-Holocene (MH) sea surface temperatures (SST), based on Mg/Ca and alkenone palaeothermometry and reconstructions obtained using planktonic foraminifera and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst census counts. We assess the uncertainties originating from using different methodologies and evaluate the potential of MH SST reconstructions as a benchmark for climate-model simulations. The comparison between different analytical approaches (time frame, baseline climate) shows the choice of time window for the MH has a negligible effect on the reconstructed SST pattern, but the choice of baseline climate affects both the magnitude and spatial pattern of the reconstructed SSTs. Comparison of the SST reconstructions made using different sensors shows significant discrepancies at a regional scale, with uncertainties often exceeding the reconstructed SST anomaly. Apparent patterns in SST may largely be a reflection of the use of different sensors in different regions. Overall, the uncertainties associated with the SST reconstructions are generally larger than the MH anomalies. Thus, the SST data currently available cannot serve as a target for benchmarking model simulations. Further evaluations of potential subsurface and/or seasonal artifacts that may contribute to obscure the MH SST reconstructions are urgently needed to provide reliable benchmarks for model evaluations.

Description: Efficient performance of the Met Office Unified Model v8.2 on Intel Xeon partially used nodes Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 7, 7395-7425, 2014 Author(s): I. Bermous The atmospheric Unified Model (UM) developed at the UK Met Office is used for weather and climate prediction by forecast teams at a number of international meteorological centres and research institutes on a wide variety of hardware and software environments. Over its 25 year history the UM sources have been optimised for a better application performance on a number of HPC systems including NEC SX vector architecture systems and recently the IBM Power6/Power7 platforms. Understanding the influence of the compiler flags, MPI libraries and run configurations is crucial to achieving the shortest elapsed times for a UM application on any particular HPC system. These aspects are very important for applications that must run within operational time frames. Driving the current study is the HPC industry trend since 1980 for processor arithmetic performance to increase at a faster rate than memory bandwidth. This gap has been growing especially fast for multicore processors in the past 10 years and it can have significant implication for the performance and performance scaling of memory bandwidth intensive applications, such as the UM. Analysis of partially used nodes on Intel Xeon clusters is provided in this paper for short and medium range weather forecasting systems using global and limited-area configurations. It is shown that on the Intel Xeon based clusters the fastest elapsed times and the most efficient system usage can be achieved using partially committed nodes.

Description: Changes in soil organic carbon and nitrogen capacities of Salix cheilophila Schneid along a revegetation chronosequence in semi-arid degraded sandy land of the Gonghe Basin, Tibet Plateau Solid Earth, 5, 1045-1054, 2014 Author(s): Y. Yu and Z. Q. Jia The Gonghe Basin is a sandified and desertified region of China, but the distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) along the cultivation chronosequence across this ecologically fragile region is not well understood. This study was carried out to understand the effects of restoration with Salix cheilophila for different periods of time (6, 11, 16, 21 years) to test whether it enhanced C and N storage. Soil samples, in four replications from seven depth increments (0–10, 10–20, 20–30, 30–50, 50–100, 100–150 and 150–200 cm), were collected in each stand. Soil bulk density, SOC, TN, aboveground biomass and root biomass were measured. Results indicated that changes occurred in both the upper and deeper soil layers with an increase in revegetation time. The 0–200 cm soil showed that the 6-year stand gained 3.89 Mg C ha −1 and 1.00 Mg N ha −1 , which accounted for 40.82% of the original SOC and 11.06% of the TN of the 0-year stand. The 11-year stand gained 7.82 Mg C ha −1 and 1.98 Mg N ha −1 in the 0–200 cm soil layers, accounting for 58.06% of the SOC and 19.80% of the TN of the 0-year stand. The 16-year stand gained 11.32 Mg C ha −1 and 3.30 Mg N ha −1 in the 0–200 cm soil layers, accounting for 66.71% of the SOC and 21.98% of the TN of the 0-year stand. The 21-year stand gained 13.05 Mg C ha −1 and 5.45 Mg N ha −1 from the same soil depth, accounting for 69.79% of the SOC and 40.47% of the TN compared with the 0-year stand. The extent of these changes depended on soil depth and plantation age. The results demonstrated that, as stand age increased, the storage of SOC and TN increased. These results further indicated that restoration with S. cheilophila has positive impacts on the Gonghe Basin and has increased the capacity of SOC sequestration and N storage. The shrub's role as carbon sink is compatible with system management and persistence. The findings are significant for assessing C and N sequestration accurately in semi-arid degraded high, cold sandy regions in the future.

Description: Oxygen stable isotopes during the Last Glacial Maximum climate: perspectives from data–model ( i LOVECLIM) comparison Climate of the Past, 10, 1939-1955, 2014 Author(s): T. Caley, D. M. Roche, C. Waelbroeck, and E. Michel We use the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean three-dimensional model of intermediate complexity i LOVECLIM to simulate the climate and oxygen stable isotopic signal during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years). By using a model that is able to explicitly simulate the sensor (δ 18 O), results can be directly compared with data from climatic archives in the different realms. Our results indicate that i LOVECLIM reproduces well the main feature of the LGM climate in the atmospheric and oceanic components. The annual mean δ 18 O in precipitation shows more depleted values in the northern and southern high latitudes during the LGM. The model reproduces very well the spatial gradient observed in ice core records over the Greenland ice sheet. We observe a general pattern toward more enriched values for continental calcite δ 18 O in the model at the LGM, in agreement with speleothem data. This can be explained by both a general atmospheric cooling in the tropical and subtropical regions and a reduction in precipitation as confirmed by reconstruction derived from pollens and plant macrofossils. Data–model comparison for sea surface temperature indicates that i LOVECLIM is capable to satisfyingly simulate the change in oceanic surface conditions between the LGM and present. Our data–model comparison for calcite δ 18 O allows investigating the large discrepancies with respect to glacial temperatures recorded by different microfossil proxies in the North Atlantic region. The results argue for a strong mean annual cooling in the area south of Iceland and Greenland between the LGM and present (〉 6 °C), supporting the foraminifera transfer function reconstruction but in disagreement with alkenones and dinocyst reconstructions. The data–model comparison also reveals that large positive calcite δ 18 O anomaly in the Southern Ocean may be explained by an important cooling, although the driver of this pattern is unclear. We deduce a large positive δ 18 Osw anomaly for the north Indian Ocean that contrasts with a large negative δ 18 Osw anomaly in the China Sea between the LGM and the present. This pattern may be linked to changes in the hydrological cycle over these regions. Our simulation of the deep ocean suggests that changes in δ 18 Osw between the LGM and the present are not spatially homogeneous. This is supported by reconstructions derived from pore fluids in deep-sea sediments. The model underestimates the deep ocean cooling thus biasing the comparison with benthic calcite δ 18 O data. Nonetheless, our data–model comparison supports a heterogeneous cooling of a few degrees (2–4 °C) in the LGM Ocean.

Description: Simulation of groundwater and surface water over the continental US using a hyperresolution, integrated hydrologic model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 7, 7317-7349, 2014 Author(s): R. M. Maxwell, L. E. Condon, and S. J. Kollet Interactions between surface and groundwater systems are well-established theoretically and observationally. While numerical models that solve both surface and subsurface flow equations in a single framework (matrix) are increasingly being applied, computational limitations have restricted their use to local and regional studies. Regional or watershed, scale simulations have been effective tools in understanding hydrologic processes, however there are still many questions, such as the adaptation of water resources to anthropogenic stressors and climate variability, that need to be answered across large spatial extents at high resolution. In response to this "grand challenge" in hydrology, we present the results of a parallel, integrated hydrologic model simulating surface and subsurface flow at high spatial resolution (1 km) over much of continental North America (~ 6 300 000 or 6.3 million km 2 ). These simulations provide predictions of hydrologic states and fluxes, namely water table depth and streamflow, at unprecedented scale and resolution. The physically-based modeling approach used here requires limited parameterizations and relies only on more fundamental inputs, such as topography, hydrogeologic properties and climate forcing. Results are compared to observations and provide mechanistic insight into hydrologic process interaction. This study demonstrates both the feasibility of continental scale integrated models and their utility for improving our understanding of large-scale hydrologic systems; the combination of high resolution and large spatial extent facilitates novel analysis of scaling relationships using model outputs.

Description: EDDA: integrated simulation of debris flow erosion, deposition and property changes Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 7, 7267-7316, 2014 Author(s): H. X. Chen and L. M. Zhang Debris flow material properties change during the initiation, transportation and deposition processes, which influences the runout characteristics of the debris flow. A quasi-three-dimensional depth-integrated numerical model, EDDA, is presented in this paper to simulate debris flow erosion, deposition and induced material property changes. The model considers changes in debris flow density, yield stress and dynamic viscosity during the flow process. The yield stress of debris flow mixture is determined at limit equilibrium using the Mohr–Coulomb equation, which is applicable to clear water flow, hyper-concentrated flow and fully developed debris flow. To assure numerical stability and computational efficiency at the same time, a variable time stepping algorithm is developed to solve the governing differential equations. Four numerical tests are conducted to validate the model. The first two tests involve a one-dimensional dam-break water flow and a one-dimensional debris flow with constant properties. The last two tests involve erosion and deposition, and the movement of multi-directional debris flows. The changes in debris flow mass and properties due to either erosion or deposition are shown to affect the runout characteristics significantly. The model is also applied to simulate a large-scale debris flow in Xiaojiagou Ravine to test the performance of the model in catchment-scale simulations. The results suggest that the model estimates well the volume, inundated area, and runout distance of the debris flow. The model is intended for use as a module in a real-time debris flow warning system.

Description: Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 7, 8975-9015, 2014 Author(s): E. M. Knudsen and J. E. Walsh Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high- and midlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) coupled global climate model. The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a global climate model of the same vintage as NorESM1-M, provide benchmarks for comparison. The focus is on the autumn and early winter (September through December), the period when the ongoing and projected Arctic sea ice retreat is greatest. Storm tracks derived from a vorticity-based algorithm for storm identification are reproduced well by NorESM1-M, although the tracks are somewhat better resolved in the higher-resolution ERA-Interim and CCSM4. The tracks are projected to shift polewards in the future as climate changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios. Cyclones are projected to become generally more intense in the high-latitudes, especially over the Alaskan region, although in some other areas the intensity is projected to decrease. While projected changes in track density are less coherent, there is a general tendency towards less frequent storms in midlatitudes and more frequent storms in high-latitudes, especially the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase significantly across the entire high-latitudes. Together with the projected increases in storm intensity and sea level and the loss of sea ice, this increase in precipitation implies a greater vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion, especially in the Alaskan region. The projected changes in storm intensity and precipitation (as well as sea ice and sea level pressure) scale generally linearly with the RCP value of the forcing and with time through the 21st century.

Description: Preface: Environmental benefits of biochar Solid Earth, 5, 1301-1303, 2014 Author(s): J. Paz-Ferreiro, A. Méndez, A. M. Tarquis, A. Cerdà, and G. Gascó

Description: Deciphering the spatio-temporal complexity of climate change of the last deglaciation: a model analysis Climate of the Past, 7, 591-602, 2011 Author(s): D. M. Roche, H. Renssen, D. Paillard, and G. Levavasseur Understanding the sequence of events occuring during the last major glacial to interglacial transition (21 ka BP to 9 ka BP) is a challenging task that has the potential to unveil the mechanisms behind large scale climate changes. Though many studies have focused on the understanding of the complex sequence of rapid climatic change that accompanied or interrupted the deglaciation, few have analysed it in a more theoretical framework with simple forcings. In the following, we address when and where the first significant temperature anomalies appeared when using slow varying forcing of the last deglaciation. We used here coupled transient simulations of the last deglaciation, including ocean, atmosphere and vegetation components to analyse the spatial timing of the deglaciation. To keep the analysis in a simple framework, we did not include freshwater forcings that potentially cause rapid climate shifts during that time period. We aimed to disentangle the direct and subsequent response of the climate system to slow forcing and moreover, the location where those changes are more clearly expressed. In a data – modelling comparison perspective, this could help understand the physically plausible phasing between known forcings and recorded climatic changes. Our analysis of climate variability could also help to distinguish deglacial warming signals from internal climate variability. We thus are able to better pinpoint the onset of local deglaciation, as defined by the first significant local warming and further show that there is a large regional variability associated with it, even with the set of slow forcings used here. In our model, the first significant hemispheric warming occurred simultaneously in the North and in the South and is a direct response to the obliquity forcing.

Description: Exploring the potentials and limitations of the time-reversal imaging of finite seismic sources Solid Earth, 2, 95-105, 2011 Author(s): S. Kremers, A. Fichtner, G. B. Brietzke, H. Igel, C. Larmat, L. Huang, and M. Käser The characterisation of seismic sources with time-reversed wave fields is developing into a standard technique that has already been successful in numerous applications. While the time-reversal imaging of effective point sources is now well-understood, little work has been done to extend this technique to the study of finite rupture processes. This is despite the pronounced non-uniqueness in classic finite source inversions. The need to better constrain the details of finite rupture processes motivates the series of synthetic and real-data time reversal experiments described in this paper. We address questions concerning the quality of focussing in the source area, the localisation of the fault plane, the estimation of the slip distribution and the source complexity up to which time-reversal imaging can be applied successfully. The frequency band for the synthetic experiments is chosen such that it is comparable to the band usually employed for finite source inversion. Contrary to our expectations, we find that time-reversal imaging is useful only for effective point sources, where it yields good estimates of both the source location and the origin time. In the case of finite sources, however, the time-reversed field does not provide meaningful characterisations of the fault location and the rupture process. This result cannot be improved sufficiently with the help of different imaging fields, realistic modifications of the receiver geometry or weights applied to the time-reversed sources. The reasons for this failure are manifold. They include the choice of the frequency band, the incomplete recording of wave field information at the surface, the excitation of large-amplitude surface waves that deteriorate the depth resolution, the absence of a sink that should absorb energy radiated during the later stages of the rupture process, the invisibility of small slip and the neglect of prior information concerning the fault geometry and the inherent smoothness of seismologically inferred Earth models that prevents the beneficial occurrence of strong multiple-scattering. The condensed conclusion of our study is that the limitations of time-reversal imaging – at least in the frequency band considered here – start where the seismic source stops being effectively point-localised.

Description: The last deglaciation: timing the bipolar seesaw Climate of the Past, 7, 671-683, 2011 Author(s): J. B. Pedro, T. D. van Ommen, S. O. Rasmussen, V. I. Morgan, J. Chappellaz, A. D. Moy, V. Masson-Delmotte, and M. Delmotte Precise information on the relative timing of north-south climate variations is a key to resolving questions concerning the mechanisms that force and couple climate changes between the hemispheres. We present a new composite record made from five well-resolved Antarctic ice core records that robustly represents the timing of regional Antarctic climate change during the last deglaciation. Using fast variations in global methane gas concentrations as time markers, the Antarctic composite is directly compared to Greenland ice core records, allowing a detailed mapping of the inter-hemispheric sequence of climate changes. Consistent with prior studies the synchronized records show that warming (and cooling) trends in Antarctica closely match cold (and warm) periods in Greenland on millennial timescales. For the first time, we also identify a sub-millennial component to the inter-hemispheric coupling. Within the Antarctic Cold Reversal the strongest Antarctic cooling occurs during the pronounced northern warmth of the Bølling. Warming then resumes in Antarctica, potentially as early as the Intra-Allerød Cold Period, but with dating uncertainty that could place it as late as the onset of the Younger Dryas stadial. There is little-to-no time lag between climate transitions in Greenland and opposing changes in Antarctica. Our results lend support to fast acting inter-hemispheric coupling mechanisms, including recently proposed bipolar atmospheric teleconnections and/or rapid bipolar ocean teleconnections.

Description: Reply to Henriksson et al.'s comment on "Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity" by Annan and Hargreaves (2010) Climate of the Past, 7, 587-589, 2011 Author(s): J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves Henriksson et al. (2010), hereafter HALTL10, criticize Annan and Hargreaves (2006a) (AH06) primarily on the grounds that we assumed that different sources of data were conditionally independent given the climate sensitivity. While we consider this approximation to have been a reasonable one under the circumstances (and provided arguments to justify this approach), we also acknowledged its importance in our original paper and performed several sensitivity analyses. The alternative calculations presented by HALTL10 appear to strengthen rather than contradict our conclusion. HALTL10 additionally criticize Annan and Hargreaves (2009) (AH09) for proposing a Cauchy type prior (as an alternative to the use of a uniform prior, which was widespread up to that time) "without sufficient support", and further claim that anticipated economic damages were used as a means of selecting the prior. We are surprised by these claims, especially considering that the proposed prior was justified at some length both on the basis of both the "Charney report" (National Research Council, 1979) and basic physical arguments, and also in light of our elementary demonstration of the pathological failings of the most commonly-used alternative. Thus, these claims are factually incorrect.

Description: Native American lithic procurement along the international border in the boot heel region of southwestern New Mexico Solid Earth, 2, 75-93, 2011 Author(s): K. E. Zeigler, P. Hogan, C. Hughes, and A. Kurota Multidisciplinary field projects can be very useful to a more fundamental understanding of the world around us, though these projects are not as common as they should be. In particular, the combination of archeology and geology combines our understanding of human behavior and human use of the landscape with an intimate knowledge of geologic processes and the materials available for human use in order to gain a broader understanding of human-Earth interaction. Here we present data from a cross-disciplinary project that uses a common dataset, archeological artifacts, to explore the anthropological and geologic implications of useage patterns. Archeological excavations and surveys conducted by the Office of Contract Archeology in 2007 along the route of the proposed international border fence reveal patterns of use of geologic materials by Archaic, Formative and Protohistoric Native Americans in the Boot Heel of southwestern New Mexico. Thousands of artifacts were recorded in multiple sites from Guadalupe Pass in the southern Peloncillo Mountains to the Carrizalillo Hills west of Columbus. We identified the lithologies of artifacts, ranging from projectile points to groundstones, and then constructed material movement maps based on either known procurement sites ("quarries") or outcrops identified as the closest source to a given site for each lithology. Not unexpectedly, the majority of the rock types utilized by native peoples are local siliceous volcanic materials. However, several artifacts constructed from obsidian were transported into the region from northern Mexico and eastern Arizona, indicating long-distance travel and/or trade routes. We also examine useage pattern difference between Archaic, Formative and Protohistoric sites. Additionally, a dramatic change in distribution of sources for geologic materials occurs between one pre-Spanish site and one post-Spanish site that are adjacent to one another.

Description: Methane variations on orbital timescales: a transient modeling experiment Climate of the Past, 7, 635-648, 2011 Author(s): T. Y. M. Konijnendijk, S. L. Weber, E. Tuenter, and M. van Weele Methane (CH 4 ) variations on orbital timescales are often associated with variations in wetland coverage, most notably in the summer monsoon areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Here we test this assumption by simulating orbitally forced variations in global wetland emissions, using a simple wetland distribution and CH 4 emissions model that has been run on the output of a climate model (CLIMBER-2) containing atmosphere, ocean and vegetation components. The transient climate modeling simulation extends over the last 650 000 yr and includes variations in land-ice distribution and greenhouse gases. Tropical temperature and global vegetation are found to be the dominant controls for global CH 4 emissions and therefore atmospheric concentrations. The relative importance of wetland coverage, vegetation coverage, and emission temperatures depends on the specific climatic zone (boreal, tropics and Indian/Asian monsoon area) and timescale (precession, obliquity and glacial-interglacial timescales). Despite the low spatial resolution of the climate model and crude parameterizations for methane production and release, simulated variations in CH 4 emissions agree well with those in measured concentrations, both in their time series and spectra. The simulated lags between emissions and orbital forcing also show close agreement with those found in measured data, both on the precession and obliquity timescale. We find causal links between atmospheric CH 4 concentrations and tropical temperatures and global vegetation, but only covariance between monsoon precipitation and CH 4 concentrations. The primary importance of the first two factors explains the lags found in the CH 4 record from ice cores. Simulation of the dynamical vegetation response to climate variation on orbital timescales would be needed to reduce the uncertainty in these preliminary attributions.

Description: The 1-way on-line coupled atmospheric chemistry model system MECO(n) – Part 1: The limited-area atmospheric chemistry model COSMO/MESSy Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1305-1358, 2011 Author(s): A. Kerkweg and P. Jöckel The numerical weather prediction model of the Consortium for Small Scale Modelling (COSMO), maintained by the German weather service (DWD), is connected with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy). This effort is undertaken in preparation of a~new, limited-area atmospheric chemistry model. This model is as consistent as possible, with respect to atmospheric chemistry and related processes, with a previously developed global atmospheric chemistry general circulation model: the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The combined system constitutes a new research tool, bridging the global to the meso-γ scale for atmospheric chemistry research. MESSy provides the infrastructure and includes, among others, the process and diagnostic submodels for atmospheric chemistry simulations. Furthermore, MESSy is highly flexible allowing model setups with tailor made complexity, depending on the scientific question. Here, the connection of the MESSy infrastructure to the COSMO model is documented. Previously published prototype submodels for simplified tracer studies are generalised to be plugged-in and used in the global and the limited-area model. They are used to evaluate the tracer transport characteristics of the new COSMO/MESSy model system, an important prerequisite for future atmospheric chemistry applications. A supplementary document with further details on the technical implementation of the MESSy interface into COSMO with a complete list of modifications to the COSMO code is provided.

Description: A re-evaluation of the Italian historical geomagnetic catalogue: implications for paleomagnetic dating at active Italian volcanoes Solid Earth, 2, 65-74, 2011 Author(s): F. D'Ajello Caracciolo, A. Pignatelli, F. Speranza, and A. Meloni Paleomagnetism is proving to represent one of the most powerful dating tools of volcanics emplaced in Italy during the last few centuries/millennia. This method requires that valuable proxies of the local geomagnetic field (paleo)secular variation ((P)SV) are available. To this end, we re-evaluate the whole Italian geomagnetic directional dataset, consisting of 833 and 696 declination and inclination measurements, respectively, carried out since 1640 AD at several localities. All directions were relocated via the virtual geomagnetic pole method to Stromboli (38.8° N, 15.2° E), the rough centre of the active Italian volcanoes. For declination-only measurements, missing inclinations were derived (always by pole method) by French data (for period 1670–1789), and by nearby Italian sites/years (for periods 1640–1657 and 1790–1962). Using post-1825 declination values, we obtain a 0.46 ± 0.19° yr −1 westward drift of the geomagnetic field for Italy. The original observation years were modified, considering such drift value, to derive at a drift-corrected relocated dataset. Both datasets were found to be in substantial agreement with directions derived from the field models by Jackson et al. (2000) and Pavon-Carrasco et al. (2009). However, the drift-corrected dataset minimizes the differences between the Italian data and both field models, and eliminates a persistent 1.6° shift of 1933–1962 declination values from Castellaccio with respect to other nearly coeval Italian data. The relocated datasets were used to calculate two post-1640 Italian SV curves, with mean directions calculated every 30 and 10 years before and after 1790, respectively. The curve comparison suggests that both available field models yield the best available SV curve to perform paleomagnetic dating of 1600–1800 AD Italian volcanics, while the Italian drift-corrected curve is probably preferable for the 19th century. For the 20th century, the global model by Jackson et al. (2000) yields more accurate inclination values, while the declinations from our drift-corrected curve seem to better represent the local field evolution, at least for the first half of the century.

Description: Carbon monoxide as a tracer for tropical troposphere to stratosphere transport in the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1185-1211, 2011 Author(s): R. Pommrich, R. Müller, J.-U. Grooß, P. Konopka, G. Günther, H.-C. Pumphrey, S. Viciani, F. D'Amato, and M. Riese Variations in the mixing ratio of trace gases of tropospheric origin entering the stratosphere in the tropics are of interest for assessing both troposphere to stratosphere transport fluxes in the tropics and the impact on the composition of the tropical lower stratosphere of quasi-horizontal in-mixing into the tropical tropopause layer from the mid-latitude stratosphere. Here, we present a simplified chemistry scheme for the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the simulation, at comparatively low numerical cost, of CO, ozone, and long-lived trace substances (CH 4 , N 2 O, CCl 3 F, and CO 2 ) in the lower tropical stratosphere. The boundary conditions at the ground are represented for the long-lived trace substances CH 4 , N 2 O, CCl 3 F, and CO 2 based on ground-based measurements. The boundary condition for CO in the free troposphere is deduced from MOPITT measurements. We find that the zonally averaged tropical CO anomaly patterns simulated by this model version of CLaMS are in good agreement with observations. The introduction of a new scheme in the ECMWF integrated forecast system (Tompkins et al., 2007) for the ice supersaturation after September 2006, results in a somewhat less good agreement between observed and simulated CO patterns in the tropical lower stratosphere after this date.

Description: The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1213-1271, 2011 Author(s): D. N. Walters, M. J. Best, A. C. Bushell, D. Copsey, J. M. Edwards, P. D. Falloon, C. M. Harris, A. P. Lock, J. C. Manners, C. J. Morcrette, M. J. Roberts, R. A. Stratton, S. Webster, J. M. Wilkinson, M. R. Willett, I. A. Boutle, P. D. Earnshaw, P. G. Hill, C. MacLachlan, G. M. Martin, W. Moufouma-Okia, M. D. Palmer, J. C. Petch, G. G. Rooney, A. A. Scaife, and K. D. Williams We describe Global Atmosphere 3.0 (GA3.0): a configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) developed for use across climate research and weather prediction activities. GA3.0 has been formulated by converging the development paths of the Met Office's weather and climate global atmospheric model components such that wherever possible, atmospheric processes are modelled or parametrized seamlessly across spatial resolutions and timescales. This unified development process will provide the Met Office and its collaborators with regular releases of a configuration that has been evaluated, and can hence be applied, over a variety of modelling régimes. We also describe Global Land 3.0 (GL3.0): a configuration of the JULES community land surface model developed for use with GA3.0. This paper provides a comprehensive technical and scientific description of the GA3.0 and GL3.0 (and related GA3.1 and GL3.1) configurations and presents the results of some initial evaluations of their performance in various applications. It is to be the first in a series of papers describing each subsequent Global Atmosphere release; this will provide a single source of reference for established users and developers as well as researchers requiring access to a current, but trusted, global MetUM setup.

Description: FAMOUS, faster: using parallel computing techniques to accelerate the FAMOUS/HadCM3 climate model with a focus on the radiative transfer algorithm Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1273-1303, 2011 Author(s): P. Hanappe, A. Beurivé, F. Laguzet, L. Steels, N. Bellouin, O. Boucher, Y. H. Yamazaki, T. Aina, and M. Allen We have optimised the atmospheric radiation algorithm of the FAMOUS climate model on several hardware platforms. The optimisation involved translating the Fortran code to C and restructuring the algorithm around the computation of a single air column. A task queue and a thread pool are used to distribute the computation to several processors. Finally, four air columns are packed together in a single data structure and computed simultaneously using Single Instruction Multiple Data operations. The modified algorithm runs more than 50 times faster on the CELL's Synergistic Processing Elements than on its main PowerPC processing element. On Intel-compatible processors, the new radiation code runs 4 times faster and on graphics processors, using OpenCL, more than 2.5 times faster, as compared to the original code. Because the radiation code takes more than 60 % of the total CPU time, FAMOUS executes more than twice as fast. Our version of the algorithm returns bit-wise identical results, which demonstrates the robustness of our approach.

Description: A coupled climate model simulation of Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial climate Climate of the Past, 7, 649-670, 2011 Author(s): J. Brandefelt, E. Kjellström, J.-O. Näslund, G. Strandberg, A. H. L. Voelker, and B. Wohlfarth We present a coupled global climate model (CGCM) simulation, integrated for 1500 yr to quasi-equilibrium, of a stadial (cold period) within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3). The simulated Greenland stadial 12 (GS12; ~44 ka BP) annual global mean surface temperature ( T s ) is 5.5 °C lower than in the simulated recent past (RP) climate and 1.3 °C higher than in the simulated Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka BP) climate. The simulated GS12 is evaluated against proxy data and previous modelling studies of MIS3 stadial climate. We show that the simulated MIS 3 climate, and hence conclusions drawn regarding the dynamics of this climate, is highly model-dependent. The main findings are: (i) Proxy sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are higher than simulated SSTs in the central North Atlantic, in contrast to earlier simulations of MIS 3 stadial climate in which proxy SSTs were found to be lower than simulated SST. (ii) The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slows down by 50 % in the GS12 climate as compared to the RP climate. This slowdown is attained without freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic region, a method used in other studies to force an AMOC shutdown. (iii) El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are significantly modified by GS12 and LGM forcing and boundary conditions. (iv) Both the mean state and variability of the simulated GS12 is dependent on the equilibration. The annual global mean T s only changes by 0.10 °C from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation, indicating that the climate system may be close to equilibrium already after 500 yr of integration. However, significant regional differences between the last century of the simulation and model years 500–599 exist. Further, the difference between simulated and proxy SST is reduced from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation. The results of the ENSO variability analysis is also shown to depend on the equilibration.

Description: Analyzing numerics of bulk microphysics schemes in Community models: warm rain processes Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1403-1434, 2011 Author(s): I. Sednev and S. Menon In the last decade there has been only one study that discussed time integration scheme (TIS) applied to advance governing differential equations in bulk microphysics (BLK) schemes. Recently, Morrison and Gettelman (2008) examine numerical aspects of double-moment BLK scheme with diagnostic treatment of precipitating hydrometeors implemented into Community Atmosphere Model, version 3 (CAM) to find an acceptable level of accuracy and numerical stability. However, stability condition for their explicit non-positive definite TIS was not defined. It is conventionally thought that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be applied for a broad range of spatial scales from large eddy up to global scale simulations if time steps used for model integration satisfy to a certain limit imposed mainly by dynamics. However, numerics used in WRF BLK schemes has never been analyzed in detail. To improve creditability of BLK schemes we derive a general analytical stability and positive definiteness criteria for explicit Eulerian time integration scheme used to advanced finite-difference equations that govern warm rain formation processes in microphysics packages in Community models (CAM and WRF) and define well-behaved, conditionally well-behaved, and non-well-behaved Explicit Eulerian Bulk Microphysics Code (EEBMPC) classes. We highlight that source codes of BLK schemes, originally developed for use in cloud-resolving models, implemented in Community models belong to conditionally well-behaved EEBMPC class and exhibit better performance for finer spatial resolutions when time steps do not exceed seconds or tenths of seconds. For coarser spatial resolutions used in regional and global scale simulations time steps are usually increased from hundredths up to thousands of seconds. This might lead to a degradation of conditionally well-behaved EEBMPCs ability to calculate the amount of precipitation as well as its spatial and temporal distribution since both stability and positive definiteness conditions are not met in the TIS. The correction through the so called “mass conservation” technique commonly used in many models with bulk microphysics is a main characteristic of non-well-behaved EEBMPC, whose utilization leads to erroneous conclusions regarding relative importance of different microphysical processes. Moreover, surface boundary conditions for ocean, land, lake, and sea ice models are dependent on the precipitation and its spatial and temporal distribution. Uncertainties in calculations of temporal and spatial patterns of accumulated precipitation influence the global water cycle. In fact, numerics in non-well-behaved EEBMPCs, which are used in Community Earth System Model, act as a hidden climate forcing agent, if relatively long time steps are used for the host model integration. By analyzing numerics of warm rain processes in EEBMPCs implemented in Community models we provide general guidelines regarding appropriate choice of integration time steps for use in these models.

Description: The early Eocene equable climate problem revisited Climate of the Past, 7, 603-633, 2011 Author(s): M. Huber and R. Caballero The early Eocene "equable climate problem", i.e. warm extratropical annual mean and above-freezing winter temperatures evidenced by proxy records, has remained as one of the great unsolved problems in paleoclimate. Recent progress in modeling and in paleoclimate proxy development provides an opportunity to revisit this problem to ascertain if the current generation of models can reproduce the past climate features without extensive modification. Here we have compiled early Eocene terrestrial temperature data and compared with climate model results using a consistent and rigorous methodology. We test the hypothesis that equable climates can be explained simply as a response to increased greenhouse gas forcing within the framework of the atmospheric component of the Community Climate System Model (version 3), a climate model in common use for predicting future climate change. We find that, with suitably large radiative forcing, the model and data are in general agreement for annual mean and cold month mean temperatures, and that the pattern of high latitude amplification recorded by proxies can be largely, but not perfectly, reproduced.

Description: The 1-way on-line coupled atmospheric chemistry model system MECO(n) – Part 2: On-line coupling Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1359-1402, 2011 Author(s): A. Kerkweg and P. Jöckel A new, highly flexible model system for the seamless dynamical down-scaling of meteorological and chemical processes from the global to the meso-γ scale is presented. A global model and a cascade of an arbitrary number of limited-area model instances run concurrently in the same parallel environment, in which the coarser grained instances provide the boundary data for the finer grained instances. Thus, disk-space intensive and time consuming intermediate and pre-processing steps are entirely avoided and the time interpolation errors of common off-line nesting approaches are minimised. More specifically, the regional model COSMO of the German Weather Service (DWD) is nested on-line into the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 within the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) framework. ECHAM5 and COSMO have previously been equipped with the MESSy infrastructure, implying that the same process formulations (MESSy submodels) are available for both models. This guarantees the highest degree of achievable consistency, between both, the meteorological and chemical conditions at the domain boundaries of the nested limited-area model, and between the process formulations on all scales. The on-line nesting of the different models is established by a client-server approach with the newly developed Multi-Model-Driver (MMD), an additional component of the MESSy infrastructure. With MMD an arbitrary number of model instances can be run concurrently within the same message passing interface (MPI) environment, the respective coarser model (either global or regional) is the server for the nested finer (regional) client model, i.e., it provides the data required to calculate the initial and boundary fields to the client model. On-line nesting means that the coupled (client-server) models exchange their data via the computer memory, in contrast to the data exchange via files on disk in common off-line nesting approaches. MMD consists of a library (Fortran95 and some parts in C) which is based on the MPI standard and two new MESSy submodels, MMDSERV and MMDCLNT (both Fortran95) for the server and client models, respectively. MMDCLNT contains a further sub-submodel, INT2COSMO, for the interpolation of the coarse grid data provided by the server models (either ECHAM5/MESSy or COSMO/MESSy) to the grid of the respective client model (COSMO/MESSy). INT2COSMO is based on the off-line pre-processing tool INT2LM provided by the DWD. The new achievements allow the setup of model cascades for zooming (down-scaling) from the global scale to the lower edge of the meso-γ scale (≈1 km) with a very high degree of consistency between the different models and between the chemical and meteorological boundary conditions.

Description: Development and evaluation of an Earth-system model – HadGEM2 Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 997-1062, 2011 Author(s): W. J. Collins, N. Bellouin, M. Doutriaux-Boucher, N. Gedney, P. Halloran, T. Hinton, J. Hughes, C. D. Jones, M. Joshi, S. Liddicoat, G. Martin, F. O'Connor, J. Rae, C. Senior, S. Sitch, I. Totterdell, A. Wiltshire, and S. Woodward We describe here the development and evaluation of an Earth system model suitable for centennial-scale climate prediction. The principal new components added to the physical climate model are the terrestrial and ocean ecosystems and gas-phase tropospheric chemistry, along with their coupled interactions. The individual Earth system components are described briefly and the relevant interactions between the components are explained. Because the multiple interactions could lead to unstable feedbacks, we go through a careful process of model spin up to ensure that all components are stable and the interactions balanced. This spun-up configuration is evaluated against observed data for the Earth system components and is generally found to perform very satisfactorily. The reason for the evaluation phase is that the model is to be used for the core climate simulations carried out by the Met Office Hadley Centre for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), so it is essential that addition of the extra complexity does not detract substantially from its climate performance. Localised changes in some specific meteorological variables can be identified, but the impacts on the overall simulation of present day climate are slight. This model is proving valuable both for climate predictions, and for investigating the strengths of biogeochemical feedbacks.

Description: The construction of a Central Netherlands temperature Climate of the Past, 7, 527-542, 2011 Author(s): G. van der Schrier, A. van Ulden, and G. J. van Oldenborgh The Central Netherlands Temperature (CNT) is a monthly daily mean temperature series constructed from homogenized time series from the centre of the Netherlands. The purpose of this series is to offer a homogeneous time series representative of a larger area in order to study large-scale temperature changes. It will also facilitate a comparison with climate models, which resolve similar scales. From 1906 onwards, temperature measurements in the Netherlands have been sufficiently standardized to construct a high-quality series. Long time series have been constructed by merging nearby stations and using the overlap to calibrate the differences. These long time series and a few time series of only a few decades in length have been subjected to a homogeneity analysis in which significant breaks and artificial trends have been corrected. Many of the detected breaks correspond to changes in the observations that are documented in the station metadata. This version of the CNT, to which we attach the version number 1.1, is constructed as the unweighted average of four stations (De Bilt, Winterswijk/Hupsel, Oudenbosch/Gilze-Rijen and Gemert/Volkel) with the stations Eindhoven and Deelen added from 1951 and 1958 onwards, respectively. The global gridded datasets used for detecting and attributing climate change are based on raw observational data. Although some homogeneity adjustments are made, these are not based on knowledge of local circumstances but only on statistical evidence. Despite this handicap, and the fact that these datasets use grid boxes that are far larger then the area associated with that of the Central Netherlands Temperature, the temperature interpolated to the CNT region shows a warming trend that is broadly consistent with the CNT trend in all of these datasets. The actual trends differ from the CNT trend up to 30 %, which highlights the need to base future global gridded temperature datasets on homogenized time series.

Description: Winter and summer blocking variability in the North Atlantic region – evidence from long-term observational and proxy data from southwestern Greenland Climate of the Past, 7, 543-555, 2011 Author(s): N. Rimbu and G. Lohmann We investigate the interannual and decadal variability of the North Atlantic atmospheric blocking frequency and distribution in connection with long-term observational and proxy records from southwestern Greenland. It is shown that warm (cold) conditions in southwestern Greenland during winter are related with high (low) blocking activity in the Greenland-Scandinavian region. The pattern of winter temperature-blocking variability is more complex than the blocking pattern associated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We find, furthermore, that a North Atlantic blocking index is significantly correlated with seasonally resolved stable isotope records from Greenland ice cores. Both suggest a possible reconstruction of blocking variability in this region. During summer, high (low) blocking activity in the Euro-Atlantic region is associated with cold (warm) conditions in southwestern Greenland. We conclude that historical temperature records, as well as proxy data from Greenland, can be used to obtain information related to interannual and multidecadal variation of winter and summer blocking during past periods.

Description: Open Plot Project: an open-source toolkit for 3-D structural data analysis Solid Earth, 2, 53-63, 2011 Author(s): S. Tavani, P. Arbues, M. Snidero, N. Carrera, and J. A. Muñoz In this work we present the Open Plot Project, an open-source software for structural data analysis, including a 3-D environment. The software includes many classical functionalities of structural data analysis tools, like stereoplot, contouring, tensorial regression, scatterplots, histograms and transect analysis. In addition, efficient filtering tools are present allowing the selection of data according to their attributes, including spatial distribution and orientation. This first alpha release represents a stand-alone toolkit for structural data analysis. The presence of a 3-D environment with digitalising tools allows the integration of structural data with information extracted from georeferenced images to produce structurally validated dip domains. This, coupled with many import/export facilities, allows easy incorporation of structural analyses in workflows for 3-D geological modelling. Accordingly, Open Plot Project also candidates as a structural add-on for 3-D geological modelling software. The software (for both Windows and Linux O.S.), the User Manual, a set of example movies (complementary to the User Manual), and the source code are provided as Supplement. We intend the publication of the source code to set the foundation for free, public software that, hopefully, the structural geologists' community will use, modify, and implement. The creation of additional public controls/tools is strongly encouraged.

Description: A multi-layer land surface energy budget model for implicit coupling with global atmospheric simulations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 7, 8649-8701, 2014 Author(s): J. Ryder, J. Polcher, P. Peylin, C. Ottlé, Y. Chen, E. van Gorsel, V. Haverd, M. J. McGrath, K. Naudts, J. Otto, A. Valade, and S. Luyssaert In Earth system modelling, a description of the energy budget of the vegetated surface layer is fundamental as it determines the meteorological conditions in the planetary boundary layer and as such contributes to the atmospheric conditions and its circulation. The energy budget in most Earth system models has long been based on a "big-leaf approach", with averaging schemes that represent in-canopy processes. Such models have difficulties in reproducing consistently the energy balance in field observations. We here outline a newly developed numerical model for energy budget simulation, as a component of the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems – CANopy). This new model implements techniques from single-site canopy models in a practical way. It includes representation of in-canopy transport, a multilayer longwave radiation budget, height-specific calculation of aerodynamic and stomatal conductance, and interaction with the bare soil flux within the canopy space. Significantly, it avoids iterations over the height of tha canopy and so maintains implicit coupling to the atmospheric model LMDz. As a first test, the model is evaluated against data from both an intensive measurement campaign and longer term eddy covariance measurements for the intensively studied Eucalyptus stand at Tumbarumba, Australia. The model performs well in replicating both diurnal and annual cycles of fluxes, as well as the gradients of sensible heat fluxes. However, the model overestimates sensible heat flux against an underestimate of the radiation budget. Improved performance is expected through the implementation of a more detailed calculation of stand albedo and a more up-to-date stomatal conductance calculation.

Description: Sensitivity of East African savannah vegetation to historical moisture-balance variation Climate of the Past, 10, 2067-2080, 2014 Author(s): I. Ssemmanda, V. Gelorini, and D. Verschuren Fossil pollen records provide key insight into the sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. However, tracing vegetation response to relatively modest historical climate fluctuations is often complicated by the overriding signature of anthropogenic landscape disturbance. Here we use high-resolution pollen data from a ~200-year lake-sediment record in open wooded savannah of Queen Elizabeth National Park (southwestern Uganda) to assess the sensitivity of the tropical lowland grassland–forest transition to historical, decade-scale moisture-balance fluctuations. Specifically we trace vegetation response to three episodes of higher average rainfall dated to the 1820s–1830s, ca. 1865–1890 and from 1962 to around 2000. Our pollen data indeed reveal a sequence of three wet periods, separated by two drier periods. During the inferred wetter episodes we find increases in the percent pollen abundance of trees and shrubs from moist semi-deciduous forest ( Allophylus , Macaranga , Alchornea , Celtis ), riparian forest ( Phoenix reclinata ) and wooded savannah ( Acalypha , Rhus -type vulgaris , Combretaceae/Melastomataceae) as well as taxa common in the local rift-valley grasslands ( Acacia , Ficus ), together creating strong temporary reductions in Poaceae pollen (to 45–55% of the terrestrial pollen sum). During intervening dry periods, Poaceae pollen attained values of 65–75%, and dryland herbs such as Commelina , Justicia -type odora and Chenopodiaceae expanded at the expense of Asteraceae, Solanum -type, Swertia usambarensis -type, and (modestly so) Urticaceae. Noting that the overall richness of arboreal taxa remained high but their combined abundance low, we conclude that the landscape surrounding Lake Chibwera has been an open wooded savannah throughout the past 200 years, with historical moisture-balance variation exerting modest effects on local tree cover (mostly the abundance of Acacia and Ficus ) and the occurrence of damp soil areas promoting Phoenix reclinata . The strong apparent expansion of true forest trees during wet episodes can be explained partly by enhanced pollen input via a temporarily activated upland stream. Pollen from exotic trees and cultural indicators appears from the 1970s onwards, but their combined influence fails to mask the signature of natural vegetation dynamics in the pollen record.

Description: CREST (Climate REconstruction SofTware): a probability density function (PDF)-based quantitative climate reconstruction method Climate of the Past, 10, 2081-2098, 2014 Author(s): M. Chevalier, R. Cheddadi, and B. M. Chase Several methods currently exist to quantitatively reconstruct palaeoclimatic variables from fossil botanical data. Of these, probability density function (PDF)-based methods have proven valuable as they can be applied to a wide range of plant assemblages. Most commonly applied to fossil pollen data, their performance, however, can be limited by the taxonomic resolution of the pollen data, as many species may belong to a given pollen type. Consequently, the climate information associated with different species cannot always be precisely identified, resulting in less-accurate reconstructions. This can become particularly problematic in regions of high biodiversity. In this paper, we propose a novel PDF-based method that takes into account the different climatic requirements of each species constituting the broader pollen type. PDFs are fitted in two successive steps, with parametric PDFs fitted first for each species and then a combination of those individual species PDFs into a broader single PDF to represent the pollen type as a unit. A climate value for the pollen assemblage is estimated from the likelihood function obtained after the multiplication of the pollen-type PDFs, with each being weighted according to its pollen percentage. To test its performance, we have applied the method to southern Africa as a regional case study and reconstructed a suite of climatic variables (e.g. winter and summer temperature and precipitation, mean annual aridity, rainfall seasonality). The reconstructions are shown to be accurate for both temperature and precipitation. Predictable exceptions were areas that experience conditions at the extremes of the regional climatic spectra. Importantly, the accuracy of the reconstructed values is independent of the vegetation type where the method is applied or the number of species used. The method used in this study is publicly available in a software package entitled CREST (Climate REconstruction SofTware) and will provide the opportunity to reconstruct quantitative estimates of climatic variables even in areas with high geographical and botanical diversity.

Description: Interpretative modelling of a geological cross section from boreholes: sources of uncertainty and their quantification Solid Earth, 5, 1189-1203, 2014 Author(s): R. M. Lark, S. Thorpe, H. Kessler, and S. J. Mathers We conducted a designed experiment to quantify sources of uncertainty in geologists' interpretations of a geological cross section. A group of 28 geologists participated in the experiment. Each interpreted borehole record included up to three Palaeogene bedrock units, including the target unit for the experiment: the London Clay. The set of boreholes was divided into batches from which validation boreholes had been withheld; as a result, we obtained 129 point comparisons between the interpreted elevation of the base of the London Clay and its observed elevation in a borehole not used for that particular interpretation. Analysis of the results showed good general agreement between the observed and interpreted elevations, with no evidence of systematic bias. Between-site variation of the interpretation error was spatially correlated, and the variance appeared to be stationary. The between-geologist component of variance was smaller overall, and depended on the distance to the nearest borehole. There was also evidence that the between-geologist variance depends on the degree of experience of the individual. We used the statistical model of interpretation error to compute confidence intervals for any one interpretation of the base of the London Clay on the cross section, and to provide uncertainty measures for decision support in a hypothetical route-planning process. The statistical model could also be used to quantify error propagation in a full 3-D geological model produced from interpreted cross sections.

Description: Tunable diode laser measurements of hydrothermal/volcanic CO 2 and implications for the global CO 2 budget Solid Earth, 5, 1209-1221, 2014 Author(s): M. Pedone, A. Aiuppa, G. Giudice, F. Grassa, V. Francofonte, B. Bergsson, and E. Ilyinskaya Quantifying the CO 2 flux sustained by low-temperature fumarolic fields in hydrothermal/volcanic environments has remained a challenge, to date. Here, we explored the potential of a commercial infrared tunable laser unit for quantifying such fumarolic volcanic/hydrothermal CO 2 fluxes. Our field tests were conducted between April 2013 and March 2014 at Nea Kameni (Santorini, Greece), Hekla and Krýsuvík (Iceland) and Vulcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy). At these sites, the tunable laser was used to measure the path-integrated CO 2 mixing ratios along cross sections of the fumaroles' atmospheric plumes. By using a tomographic post-processing routine, we then obtained, for each manifestation, the contour maps of CO 2 mixing ratios in the plumes and, from their integration, the CO 2 fluxes. The calculated CO 2 fluxes range from low (5.7 ± 0.9 t d −1 ; Krýsuvík) to moderate (524 ± 108 t d −1 ; La Fossa crater, Vulcano). Overall, we suggest that the cumulative CO 2 contribution from weakly degassing volcanoes in the hydrothermal stage of activity may be significant at the global scale.

Description: iGen: the automated generation of a parameterisation of entrainment in marine stratocumulus Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 971-995, 2011 Author(s): D. F. Tang and S. Dobbie In a previous paper we described a new technique for automatically generating parameterisations using a program called iGen. iGen generates parameterisations by analysing the source code of a high resolution model that resolves the physics to be parameterised. In order to demonstrate that this technique scales up to deal with models of realistic complexity we have used iGen to generate a parameterisation of entrainment in marine stratocumulus. We present details of our technique in which iGen was used to analyse the source code of a cloud resolving model and generate a parameterisation of the mean and standard deviation of entrainment velocity in marine stratocumulus in terms of the large-scale state of the boundary layer. The parameterisation was tested against results from the DYCOMS-II intercomparison of cloud resolving models and iGen's parameterisation of mean entrainment velocity was found to be 5.27 × 10 −3 ± 0.62 × 10 −3 m s −1 compared to 5.2 × 10 −3 ± 0.8 × 10 −3 m s −1 for the DYCOMS-II ensemble of cloud resolving models.

Description: The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 689-763, 2011 Author(s): C. D. Jones, J. K. Hughes, N. Bellouin, S. C. Hardiman, G. S. Jones, J. Knight, S. Liddicoat, F. M. O'Connor, R. J. Andres, C. Bell, K.-O. Boo, A. Bozzo, N. Butchart, P. Cadule, K. D. Corbin, M. Doutriaux-Boucher, P. Friedlingstein, J. Gornall, L. Gray, P. R. Halloran, G. Hurtt, W. Ingram, J.-F. Lamarque, R. M. Law, M. Meinshausen, S. Osprey, E. J. Palin, L. Parsons Chini, T. Raddatz, M. Sanderson, A. A. Sellar, A. Schurer, P. Valdes, N. Wood, S. Woodward, M. Yoshioka, and M. Zerroukat The scientific understanding of the Earth's climate system, including the central question of how the climate system is likely to respond to human-induced perturbations, is comprehensively captured in GCMs and Earth System Models(ESM). Diagnosing the simulated climate response, and comparing responses across different models, is crucially dependent on transparent assumptions of how the GCM/ESM has been driven – especially because the implementation can involve subjective decisions and may differ between modelling groups performing the same experiment. This paper outlines the climate forcings and setup of the Met Office Hadley Centre ESM, HadGEM2-ES for the CMIP5 set of centennial experiments. We document the prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol precursors, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone assumptions, as well as implementation of land-use change and natural forcings for the HadGEM2-ES historical and future experiments following the Representative Concentration Pathways. In addition, we provide details of how HadGEM2-ES ensemble members were initialised from the control run and how the palaeoclimate and AMIP experiments, as well as the "emission-driven" RCP experiments were performed.

Description: A Mesoproterozoic continental flood rhyolite province, the Gawler Ranges, Australia: the end member example of the Large Igneous Province clan Solid Earth, 2, 25-33, 2011 Author(s): M. J. Pankhurst, B. F. Schaefer, P. G. Betts, N. Phillips, and M. Hand Rhyolite and dacite lavas of the Mesoproterozoic upper Gawler Range Volcanics (GRV) (〉30 000 km 3 preserved), South Australia, represent the remnants of one of the most voluminous felsic magmatic events preserved on Earth. Geophysical interpretation suggests eruption from a central cluster of feeder vents which supplied large-scale lobate flows 〉100 km in length. Pigeonite inversion thermometers indicate eruption temperatures of 950–1100 °C. The lavas are A-type in composition (e.g. high Ga/Al ratios) and characterised by elevated primary halogen concentrations (~1600 ppm fluorine, ~400 ppm chlorine). These depolymerised the magma such that temperature-composition-volatile non-Arrhenian melt viscosity modelling suggests they had viscosities of

Description: The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model Climate configurations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 765-841, 2011 Author(s): The HadGEM2 Development Team: Martin, G. M., N. Bellouin, W. J. Collins, I. D. Culverwell, P. R. Halloran, S. C. Hardiman, T. J. Hinton, C. D. Jones, R. E. McDonald, A. J. McLaren, F. M. O'Connor, M. J. Roberts, J. M. Rodriguez, S. Woodward, M. J. Best, M. E. Brooks, A. R. Brown, N. Butchart, C. Dearden, S. H. Derbyshire, I. Dharssi, M. Doutriaux-Boucher, J. M. Edwards, P. D. Falloon, N. Gedney, L. J. Gray, H. T. Hewitt, M. Hobson, M. R. Huddleston, J. Hughes, S. Ineson, W. J. Ingram, P. M. James, T. C. Johns, C. E. Johnson, A. Jones, C. P. Jones, M. M. Joshi, A. B. Keen, S. Liddicoat, A. P. Lock, A. V. Maidens, J. C. Manners, S. F. Milton, J. G. L. Rae, J. K. Ridley, A. Sellar, C. A. Senior, I. J. Totterdell, A. Verhoef, P. L. Vidale, and A. Wiltshire We describe the HadGEM2 family of climate configurations of the Met Office Unified Model, MetUM. The concept of a model "family" comprises a range of specific model configurations incorporating different levels of complexity but with a common physical framework. The HadGEM2 family of configurations includes atmosphere and ocean components, with and without a vertical extension to include a well-resolved stratosphere, and an Earth-System (ES) component which includes dynamic vegetation, ocean biology and atmospheric chemistry. The HadGEM2 physical model includes improvements designed to address specific systematic errors encountered in the previous climate configuration, HadGEM1, namely Northern Hemisphere continental temperature biases and tropical sea surface temperature biases and poor variability. Targeting these biases was crucial in order that the ES configuration could represent important biogeochemical climate feedbacks. Detailed descriptions and evaluations of particular HadGEM2 family members are included in a number of other publications, and the discussion here is limited to a summary of the overall performance using a set of model metrics which compare the way in which the various configurations simulate present-day climate and its variability.

Description: The global ocean circulation on a retrograde rotating earth Climate of the Past, 7, 487-499, 2011 Author(s): V. Kamphuis, S. E. Huisman, and H. A. Dijkstra To understand the three-dimensional ocean circulation patterns that have occurred in past continental geometries, it is crucial to study the role of the present-day continental geometry and surface (wind stress and buoyancy) forcing on the present-day global ocean circulation. This circulation, often referred to as the Conveyor state, is characterised by an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) with a deep water formation at northern latitudes and the absence of such a deep water formation in the North Pacific. This MOC asymmetry is often attributed to the difference in surface freshwater flux: the Atlantic as a whole is a basin with net evaporation, while the Pacific receives net precipitation. This issue is revisited in this paper by considering the global ocean circulation on a retrograde rotating earth, computing an equilibrium state of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice model CCSM3. The Atlantic-Pacific asymmetry in surface freshwater flux is indeed reversed, but the ocean circulation pattern is not an Inverse Conveyor state (with deep water formation in the North Pacific) as there is relatively weak but intermittently strong deep water formation in the North Atlantic. Using a fully-implicit, global ocean-only model the stability properties of the Atlantic MOC on a retrograde rotating earth are also investigated, showing a similar regime of multiple equilibria as in the present-day case. These results indicate that the present-day asymmetry in surface freshwater flux is not the most important factor setting the Atlantic-Pacific salinity difference and, thereby, the asymmetry in the global MOC.

Description: Towards an online-coupled chemistry-climate model: evaluation of COSMO-ART Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1809-1874, 2011 Author(s): C. Knote, D. Brunner, H. Vogel, J. Allan, A. Asmi, M. Äijälä, S. Carbone, H. D. van der Gon, J. L. Jimenez, A. Kiendler-Scharr, C. Mohr, L. Poulain, A. S. H. Prévôt, E. Swietlicki, and B. Vogel The online-coupled, regional chemistry transport model COSMO-ART is evaluated for periods in all seasons against several measurement datasets to assess its ability to represent gaseous pollutants and ambient aerosol characteristics over the European domain. Measurements used in the comparison include long-term station observations, satellite and ground-based remote sensing products, and complex datasets of aerosol chemical composition and number size distribution from recent field campaigns. This is the first time these comprehensive measurements of aerosol characteristics in Europe are used to evaluate a regional chemistry transport model. We show a detailed analysis of the simulated size-resolved chemical composition under different meteorological conditions. The model is able to represent trace gas concentrations with good accuracy and reproduces bulk aerosol properties rather well though with a clear tendency to underestimate both total mass (PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) and aerosol optical depth. We find indications of an overestimation of shipping emissions. Time evolution of aerosol chemical composition is captured, although some biases are found in relative composition. Nitrate aerosol components are on average overestimated, and sulfates underestimated. The accuracy of simulated organics depends strongly on season and location. While strongly underestimated during summer, organic mass is comparable in spring and autumn. We see indications for an overestimated fractional contribution of primary organic matter in urban areas and an underestimation of SOA at many locations. Aerosol number concentrations can be simulated well, size distributions are comparable. Our work sets the basis for subsequent studies of aerosol characteristics and climate impacts with COSMO-ART, and highlights areas where improvements are necessary for current regional modeling systems in general.

Description: Mapping the climate: guidance on appropriate techniques to map climate variables and their uncertainty Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1875-1906, 2011 Author(s): N. R. Kaye, A. Hartley, and D. Hemming Maps are a crucial asset in communicating climate science to a diverse audience, and there is a wealth of software available to analyse and visualise climate information. However, this availability makes it easy to create poor maps as users often lack an underlying cartographic knowledge. Furthermore, communicating and visualising uncertainties in climate data and climate change projections, using for example ensemble based approaches, presents additional challenges for mapping that require careful consideration. This paper assesses a range of techniques for mapping uncertainties, comparing "intrinsic" approaches that use colour in much the same way as conventional thematic maps, and "extrinsic" approaches that incorporate additional geometry such as points or features. We proposes that, unlike traditional cartography, where many known standards allow maps to be interpreted easily, there is no standard mapping approach used to represent uncertainty (in climate or other information). Consequently, a wide range of techniques have been applied for this purpose, and users may spend unnecessary time trying to understand the mapping approach rather than interpreting the information presented. We use cartographic knowledge and lessons learned from mapping other information to propose a suitable mapping technique that represents both magnitude and uncertainty in climate data. This technique adjusts the hue of a small palette of colours to show the mean or median of a climate variable, and the saturation of the colour to illustrate a measure of uncertainty. It is designed to be easy to replicate, visible to colour blind people and intuitive to understand. This technique may be utilised to map a wide range of climate data, and it is proposed that it would provide a consistent approach suitable for mapping information for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5).

Description: Holocene vegetation and biomass changes on the Tibetan Plateau – a model-pollen data comparison Climate of the Past, 7, 881-901, 2011 Author(s): A. Dallmeyer, M. Claussen, U. Herzschuh, and N. Fischer Results of a transient numerical experiment performed in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model with orbital forcing alone are compared to pollen-based vegetation reconstructions covering the last 6000 yr from four representative sites on the Tibetan Plateau. Causes of the vegetation change and consequences of the biomass storage are analysed. In general, simulated and reconstructed vegetation trends at each site are in good agreement. Both methods reveal a general retreat of the biomass-rich vegetation that is particularly manifested in a strong decrease of forests. However, model and reconstructions often differ with regard to the climatic factors causing the vegetation change at each site. The reconstructions primarily identify decreasing summer monsoon precipitation and changes in the temperature of the warm season as the responsible mechanisms for the vegetation shift. In the model, the land cover change mainly originates from differences in warm/cold seasonal temperatures and only to a lesser extent from precipitation changes. According to the model results, the averaged forest fraction on the Plateau shrinks by almost one-third from mid-Holocene (41.4 %) to present-day (28.3 %). Shrubs, whose fraction is quadrupled at present-day (12.3 %), replace most of this forest. Grass fraction increases from 38.1 % during the mid-Holocene to 42.3 % at present-day. This land cover change results in a decrease of living biomass by 0.62 kgC m −2 . Total biomass on the Tibetan Plateau decreases by 1.9 kgC m −2 , i.e. approx. 6.64 PgC are released due to the natural land cover change.

Description: A new version of the CNRM Chemistry-Climate Model, CNRM-CCM: description and improvements from the CCMVal-2 simulations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1129-1183, 2011 Author(s): M. Michou, D. Saint-Martin, H. Teyssèdre, A. Alias, F. Karcher, D. Olivié, A. Voldoire, B. Josse, V.-H. Peuch, H. Clark, J. N. Lee, and F. Chéroux This paper presents a new version of the Météo-France CNRM Chemistry-Climate Model, so-called CNRM-CCM. It includes some fundamental changes from the previous version (CNRM-ACM) which was extensively evaluated in the context of the CCMVal-2 validation activity. The most notable changes concern the radiative code of the GCM, and the inclusion of the detailed stratospheric chemistry of our Chemistry-Transport model MOCAGE on-line within the GCM. A 47-yr transient simulation (1960–2006) is the basis of our analysis. CNRM-CCM generates satisfactory dynamical and chemical fields in the stratosphere. Several shortcomings of CNRM-ACM simulations for CCMVal-2 that resulted from an erroneous representation of the impact of volcanic aerosols as well as from transport deficiencies have been eliminated. Remaining problems concern the upper stratosphere (5 to 1 hPa) where temperatures are too high, and where there are biases in the NO 2 , N 2 O 5 and O 3 mixing ratios. In contrast, temperatures at the tropical tropopause are too cold. These issues are addressed through the implementation of a more accurate radiation scheme at short wavelengths. Despite these problems we show that this new CNRM CCM is a useful tool to study chemistry-climate applications.

Description: Weakened atmospheric energy transport feedback in cold glacial climates Climate of the Past, 7, 1061-1073, 2011 Author(s): I. Cvijanovic, P. L. Langen, and E. Kaas The response of atmospheric energy transport during Northern Hemisphere cooling and warming from present day (PD) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions is investigated using sea surface temperature anomalies derived from a freshwater hosing experiment. The present day climate shows enhanced sensitivity of the atmospheric mid-latitude energy transport compared to that of the LGM, suggesting its ability to reorganize more easily and thereby dampen high latitude temperature anomalies that may arise from changes in the oceanic transport. This effect is found to be a result of both the atmospheric and surface flux response. The increased PD transport sensitivity relative to that of the LGM is linked to a stronger dry static energy transport response which, in turn, is mainly driven by larger changes in the transient eddy heat flux. In comparison, changes in mid-latitude latent heat transport play a minor role in the overall transport sensitivity.

Description: Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project: implementation strategy and mid-Pliocene Global climatology using GENESIS v3.0 GCM Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 2577-2603, 2011 Author(s): S. J. Koenig, R. M. DeConto, and D. Pollard The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.29 to 2.97 Ma BP) has been identified as an analogue for the future, with the potential to help understand climate processes in a warmer than modern world. Sets of climate proxies, combined to provide boundary conditions for Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations of the mid-Pliocene, form the basis for the international, data-driven Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we outline the strategy for implementing pre-industrial (modern) and mid-Pliocene forcings and boundary conditions into the GENESIS version 3 GCM, as part of PlioMIP. We describe the prescription of greenhouse gas concentrations and orbital parameters and the implementation of geographic boundary conditions such as land-ice-sea distribution, topography, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, vegetation, soils, and ice sheets. We further describe model-specific details including spin-up and integration times. In addition, the global climatology of the mid-Pliocene as simulated by the GENESIS v3 GCM is analyzed and compared to the pre-industrial control simulation. The simulated climate of the mid-Pliocene warm interval is found to differ considerably from pre-industrial. We identify model sensitivity to imposed forcings, and internal feedbacks that collectively affect both local and far-field responses. Our analysis points out the need to assess both the direct impacts of external forcings and the combined effects of indirect, internal feedbacks. This paper provides the basis for assessing model biases within the PlioMIP framework, and will be useful for comparisons with other studies of mid-Pliocene climates.

Description: Development of the high-order decoupled direct method in three dimensions for particulate matter: enabling advanced sensitivity analysis in air quality models Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 2605-2633, 2011 Author(s): W. Zhang, S. L. Capps, Y. Hu, A. Nenes, S. L. Napelenok, and A. G. Russell The high-order decoupled direct method in three dimensions for particular matter (HDDM-3D/PM) has been implemented in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to enable advanced sensitivity analysis. The major effort of this work is to develop high-order DDM sensitivity analysis of ISORROPIA, the inorganic aerosol module of CMAQ. A case-specific approach has been applied, and the sensitivities of activity coefficients and water content are explicitly computed. Stand-alone tests are performed for ISORROPIA by comparing the sensitivities (first- and second-order) computed by HDDM and the brute force (BF) approximations. Similar comparison has also been carried out for CMAQ results simulated using a week-long winter episode for a continental US domain. Second-order sensitivities of aerosol species (e.g., sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium) with respect to domain-wide SO 2 , NO x , and NH 3 emissions show agreement with BF results, yet exhibit less noise in locations where BF results are demonstrably inaccurate. Second-order sensitivity analysis elucidates nonlinear responses of secondary inorganic aerosols to their precursors and competing species that have not yet been well-understood with other approaches. Including second-order sensitivity coefficients in the Taylor series projection of the nitrate concentrations with a 50% reduction in domain-wide NO x emission shows a statistically significant improvement compared to the first-order Taylor series projection.

Description: Uncertainties in modelling CH 4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: the role of vegetation parameters Climate of the Past, 7, 1075-1087, 2011 Author(s): C. Berrittella and J. van Huissteden Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) interstadials are marked by a sharp increase in the atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) concentration, as recorded in ice cores. Wetlands are assumed to be the major source of this CH 4 , although several other hypotheses have been advanced. Modelling of CH 4 emissions is crucial to quantify CH 4 sources for past climates. Vegetation effects are generally highly generalized in modelling past and present-day CH 4 fluxes, but should not be neglected. Plants strongly affect the soil-atmosphere exchange of CH 4 and the net primary production of the vegetation supplies organic matter as substrate for methanogens. For modelling past CH 4 fluxes from northern wetlands, assumptions on vegetation are highly relevant since paleobotanical data indicate large differences in Last Glacial (LG) wetland vegetation composition as compared to modern wetland vegetation. Besides more cold-adapted vegetation, Sphagnum mosses appear to be much less dominant during large parts of the LG than at present, which particularly affects CH 4 oxidation and transport. To evaluate the effect of vegetation parameters, we used the PEATLAND-VU wetland CO 2 /CH 4 model to simulate emissions from wetlands in continental Europe during LG and modern climates. We tested the effect of parameters influencing oxidation during plant transport ( f ox ), vegetation net primary production (NPP, parameter symbol P max ), plant transport rate ( V transp ), maximum rooting depth ( Z root ) and root exudation rate ( f ex ). Our model results show that modelled CH 4 fluxes are sensitive to f ox and Z root in particular. The effects of P max , V transp and f ex are of lesser relevance. Interactions with water table modelling are significant for V transp . We conducted experiments with different wetland vegetation types for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) stadial and interstadial climates and the present-day climate, by coupling PEATLAND-VU to high resolution climate model simulations for Europe. Experiments assuming dominance of one vegetation type ( Sphagnum vs. Carex vs. Shrubs ) show that Carex -dominated vegetation can increase CH 4 emissions by 50% to 78% over Sphagnum -dominated vegetation depending on the modelled climate, while for shrubs this increase ranges from 42% to 72%. Consequently, during the LG northern wetlands may have had CH 4 emissions similar to their present-day counterparts, despite a colder climate. Changes in dominant wetland vegetation, therefore, may drive changes in wetland CH 4 fluxes, in the past as well as in the future.

Description: The Middle Miocene climate as modelled in an atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model Climate of the Past, 7, 1169-1188, 2011 Author(s): M. Krapp and J. H. Jungclaus We present simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model for the Middle Miocene 15 million years ago. The model is insofar more consistent than previous models because it captures the essential interactions between ocean and atmosphere and between atmosphere and vegetation. The Middle Miocene topography, which alters both large-scale ocean and atmospheric circulations, causes a global warming of 0.7 K compared to present day. Higher than present-day CO 2 levels of 480 and 720 ppm cause a global warming of 2.8 and 4.9 K. The associated water vapour feedback enhances the greenhouse effect which leads to a polar amplification of the warming. These results suggest that higher than present-day CO 2 levels are necessary to drive the warm Middle Miocene climate, also because the dynamic vegetation model simulates a denser vegetation which is in line with fossil records. However, we do not find a flatter than present-day equator-to-pole temperature gradient as has been suggested by marine and terrestrial proxies. Instead, a compensation between atmospheric and ocean heat transport counteracts the flattening of the temperature gradient. The acclaimed role of the large-scale ocean circulation in redistributing heat cannot be supported by our results. Including full ocean dynamics, therefore, does not solve the problem of the flat temperature gradient during the Middle Miocene.

Description: Corrigendum to "Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum – a model study" published in Clim. Past, 7, 1103–1122, 2011 Climate of the Past, 7, 1149-1168, 2011 Author(s): F. Adloff, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Kučera, R. Grimm, E. Maier-Reimer, G. Schmiedl, and K.-C. Emeis Nine thousand years ago (9 ka BP), the Northern Hemisphere experienced enhanced seasonality caused by an orbital configuration close to the minimum of the precession index. To assess the impact of this "Holocene Insolation Maximum" (HIM) on the Mediterranean Sea, we use a regional ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric input derived from global simulations. A stronger seasonal cycle is simulated by the model, which shows a relatively homogeneous winter cooling and a summer warming with well-defined spatial patterns, in particular, a subsurface warming in the Cretan and western Levantine areas. The comparison between the SST simulated for the HIM and a reconstruction from planktonic foraminifera transfer functions shows a poor agreement, especially for summer, when the vertical temperature gradient is strong. As a novel approach, we propose a reinterpretation of the reconstruction, to consider the conditions throughout the upper water column rather than at a single depth. We claim that such a depth-integrated approach is more adequate for surface temperature comparison purposes in a situation where the upper ocean structure in the past was different from the present-day. In this case, the depth-integrated interpretation of the proxy data strongly improves the agreement between modelled and reconstructed temperature signal with the subsurface summer warming being recorded by both model and proxies, with a small shift to the south in the model results. The mechanisms responsible for the peculiar subsurface pattern are found to be a combination of enhanced downwelling and wind mixing due to strengthened Etesian winds, and enhanced thermal forcing due to the stronger summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Together, these processes induce a stronger heat transfer from the surface to the subsurface during late summer in the western Levantine; this leads to an enhanced heat piracy in this region, a process never identified before, but potentially characteristic of time slices with enhanced insolation.

Description: Metamorphic history and geodynamic significance of the Early Cretaceous Sabzevar granulites (Sabzevar structural zone, NE Iran) Solid Earth, 2, 219-243, 2011 Author(s): M. Nasrabady, F. Rossetti, T. Theye, and G. Vignaroli The Iranian ophiolites are part of the vast orogenic suture zones that mark the Alpine-Himalayan convergence zone. Few petrological and geochronological data are available from these ophiolitic domains, hampering a full assessment of the timing and regimes of subduction zone metamorphism and orogenic construction in the region. This paper describes texture, geochemistry, and the pressure-temperature path of the Early Cretaceous mafic granulites that occur within the Tertiary Sabzevar ophiolitic suture zone of NE Iran. Whole rock geochemistry indicates that the Sabzevar granulites are likely derived from a MORB-type precursor. They are thus considered as remnants of a dismembered dynamo-thermal sole formed during subduction of a back-arc basin (proto-Sabzevar Ocean) formed in the upper-plate of the Neotethyan slab. The metamorphic history of the granulites suggests an anticlockwise pressure-temperature loop compatible with burial in a hot subduction zone, followed by cooling during exhumation. Transition from a nascent to a mature stage of oceanic subduction is the geodynamic scenario proposed to accomplish for the reconstructed thermobaric evolution. When framed with the regional scenario, results of this study point to diachronous and independent tectonic evolutions of the different ophiolitic domains of central Iran, for which a growing disparity in the timing of metamorphic equilibration and of pressure-temperature paths can be expected to emerge with further investigations.

Description: Glacial-interglacial vegetation dynamics in South Eastern Africa coupled to sea surface temperature variations in the Western Indian Ocean Climate of the Past, 7, 1209-1224, 2011 Author(s): L. M. Dupont, T. Caley, J.-H. Kim, I. Castañeda, B. Malaizé, and J. Giraudeau Glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the vegetation of South Africa might elucidate the climate system at the edge of the tropics between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. However, vegetation records covering a full glacial cycle have only been published from the eastern South Atlantic. We present a pollen record of the marine core MD96-2048 retrieved by the Marion Dufresne from the Indian Ocean ∼120 km south of the Limpopo River mouth. The sedimentation at the site is slow and continuous. The upper 6 m (spanning the past 342 Ka) have been analysed for pollen and spores at millennial resolution. The terrestrial pollen assemblages indicate that during interglacials, the vegetation of eastern South Africa and southern Mozambique largely consisted of evergreen and deciduous forests. During glacials open mountainous scrubland dominated. Montane forest with Podocarpus extended during humid periods was favoured by strong local insolation. Correlation with the sea surface temperature record of the same core indicates that the extension of mountainous scrubland primarily depends on sea surface temperatures of the Agulhas Current. Our record corroborates terrestrial evidence of the extension of open mountainous scrubland (including fynbos-like species of the high-altitude Grassland biome) for the last glacial as well as for other glacial periods of the past 300 Ka.

Description: Using synoptic type analysis to understand New Zealand climate during the Mid-Holocene Climate of the Past, 7, 1189-1207, 2011 Author(s): D. Ackerley, A. Lorrey, J. A. Renwick, S. J. Phipps, S. Wagner, S. Dean, J. Singarayer, P. Valdes, A. Abe-Ouchi, R. Ohgaito, and J. M. Jones Diagnosing the climate of New Zealand from low-resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) is notoriously difficult due to the interaction of the complex topography and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitude westerly winds. Therefore, methods of downscaling synoptic scale model data for New Zealand are useful to help understand past climate. New Zealand also has a wealth of palaeoclimate-proxy data to which the downscaled model output can be compared, and to provide a qualitative method of assessing the capability of GCMs to represent, in this case, the climate 6000 yr ago in the Mid-Holocene. In this paper, a synoptic weather and climate regime classification system using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of GCM and reanalysis data was used. The climate regimes are associated with surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies over New Zealand. From the analysis in this study, we find at 6000 BP that increased trough activity in summer and autumn led to increased precipitation, with an increased north-south pressure gradient ("zonal events") in winter and spring leading to drier conditions. Opposing effects of increased (decreased) temperature are also seen in spring (autumn) in the South Island, which are associated with the increased zonal (trough) events; however, the circulation induced changes in temperature are likely to have been of secondary importance to the insolation induced changes. Evidence from the palaeoclimate-proxy data suggests that the Mid-Holocene was characterized by increased westerly wind events in New Zealand, which agrees with the preference for trough and zonal regimes in the models.

Description: Pliocene Ice Sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP) – experimental design Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 2661-2686, 2011 Author(s): A. M. Dolan, S. J. Koenig, D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, and R. M. DeConto During the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 million yr ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the next century and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were slightly higher. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mid-Pliocene Warm Period provides a unique testing ground to investigate the stability of the Earth's ice sheets and their contribution to sea level in a warmer-than-modern world. Climate models and ice sheet models can be used to enhance our understanding of ice sheet stability, however, uncertainties associated with different ice-sheet modelling frameworks/approaches mean that a rigorous comparison of numerical ice sheet model simulations for the Pliocene is essential. As an extension to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP; Haywood et al., 2010, 2011a), the Pliocene Ice Sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP) will address these uncertainties. Here we outline the PLISMIP experimental design and initialisation conditions that have been adopted to simulate the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under present day and warm mid-Pliocene conditions. Not only will this project provide a new benchmark in the simulation of ice sheets in a past warm period, but the analysis of model sensitivity to various uncertainties could directly inform future predictions of ice sheet and sea level change.

Description: A web service based tool to plan atmospheric research flights Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 2123-2163, 2011 Author(s): M. Rautenhaus, G. Bauer, and A. Dörnbrack We present a web service based tool for the planning of atmospheric research flights. The tool provides online access to horizontal maps and vertical cross-sections of numerical weather prediction data and in particular allows the interactive design of a flight route in direct relation to the predictions. It thereby fills a crucial gap in the set of currently available tools for using data from numerical atmospheric models for research flight planning. A distinct feature of the tool is its lightweight, web service based architecture, requiring only commodity hardware and a basic Internet connection for deployment. Access to visualisations of prediction data is achieved by using an extended version of the Open Geospatial Consortium Web Map Service (WMS) standard, a technology that has gained increased attention in meteorology in recent years. With the WMS approach, we avoid the transfer of large forecast model output datasets while enabling on-demand generated visualisations of the predictions at campaign sites with limited Internet bandwidth. Usage of the Web Map Service standard also enables access to third-party sources of georeferenced data. We have implemented the software using the open-source programming language Python. In the present article, we describe the architecture of the tool. As an example application, we discuss a case study research flight planned for the scenario of the 2010 Eyjafjalla volcano eruption. Usage and implementation details are provided as Supplement.

Description: The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 2: Response to external forcings Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 3363-3435, 2011 Author(s): S. J. Phipps, L. D. Rotstayn, H. B. Gordon, J. L. Roberts, A. C. Hirst, and W. F. Budd The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulation and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. It is freely available to the research community. This paper evaluates the response of the model to external forcings which correspond to past and future changes in the climate system. A simulation of the mid-Holocene climate is performed, in which changes in the seasonal and meridional distribution of incoming solar radiation are imposed. Mk3L correctly simulates increased summer temperatures at northern mid-latitudes and cooling in the tropics. However, it is unable to capture some of the regional-scale features of the mid-Holocene climate, with the precipitation over Northern Africa being deficient. The model simulates a reduction of between 7 and 15% in the amplitude of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a smaller decrease than that implied by the palaeoclimate record. However, the realism of the simulated ENSO is limited by the model's relatively coarse spatial resolution. Transient simulations of the late Holocene climate are then performed. The evolving distribution of insolation is imposed, and an acceleration technique is applied and assessed. The model successfully captures the temperature changes in each hemisphere and the upward trend in ENSO variability. However, the lack of a dynamic vegetation scheme does not allow it to simulate an abrupt desertification of the Sahara. To assess the response of Mk3L to other forcings, transient simulations of the last millennium are performed. Changes in solar irradiance, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and volcanic emissions are applied to the model. The model is again broadly successful at simulating larger-scale changes in the climate system. Both the magnitude and the spatial pattern of the simulated 20th century warming are consistent with observations. However, the model underestimates the magnitude of the relative warmth associated with the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly. Finally, three transient simulations are performed, in which the atmospheric CO 2 concentration is stabilised at two, three and four times the pre-industrial value. All three simulations exhibit ongoing surface warming, reduced sea ice cover, and a reduction in the rate of North Atlantic Deep Water formation followed by its gradual recovery. Antarctic Bottom Water formation ceases, with the shutdown being permanent for a trebling and quadrupling of the CO 2 concentration. The transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities of the model are determined. The short-term transient response to a doubling of the CO 2 concentration at 1% per year is a warming of 1.5 K, while the long-term equilibrium response is a warming of at least 3.9 K.

Description: Past surface temperatures at the NorthGRIP drill site from the difference in firn diffusion of water isotopes Climate of the Past, 7, 1327-1335, 2011 Author(s): S. B. Simonsen, S. J. Johnsen, T. J. Popp, B. M. Vinther, V. Gkinis, and H. C. Steen-Larsen A new ice core paleothermometer is introduced based on the temperature dependent diffusion of the stable water isotopes in the firn. A new parameter called differential diffusion length is defined as the difference between the diffusion length of the two stable water isotopologues 2 H 1 H 16 O and 1 H 2 18 O. A model treatment of the diffusion process of the firn and the ice is presented along with a method of retrieving the diffusion signal from the ice core record of water isotopes using spectral methods. The model shows how the diffusion process is highly dependent on the inter-annual variations in the surface temperatures. It results in a diffusion length longer than if the firn was isothermal. The longer diffusion length can be explained by the strong nonlinearly behaviour of the saturation pressure over ice in the range of the surface temperature fluctuations. The method has been tested on δ 18 O and δD measurements, spanning the transition from the last glacial to the holocene, from the NorthGRIP ice core. The surface temperature reconstruction based on the differential diffusion resembles other temperature reconstructions for the NorthGRIP ice core. However, the Allerød warming is seen to be significantly warmer than observed in other ice core based temperature reconstructions. The mechanisms behind this behaviour are not fully understood. The method shows the need of an expansion of high resolution stable water isotope datasets from ice cores. However, the new ice core paleothermometer presented here will give valuable insight into past climate, through the physical process of isotope diffusion in the firn column of ice sheets.

Description: Remobilization of silicic intrusion by mafic magmas during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption Solid Earth, 2, 271-281, 2011 Author(s): O. Sigmarsson, I. Vlastelic, R. Andreasen, I. Bindeman, J.-L. Devidal, S. Moune, J. K. Keiding, G. Larsen, A. Höskuldsson, and Th. Thordarson Injection of basaltic magmas into silicic crustal holding chambers and subsequent magma mingling or mixing is a process that has been recognised since the late seventies as resulting in explosive eruptions. Detailed reconstruction and assessment of the mixing process caused by such intrusion is now possible because of the exceptional time-sequence sample suite available from the tephra fallout of the 2010 summit eruption at Eyjafjallajökull volcano in South Iceland. Fallout from 14 to 19 April contains three glass types of basaltic, intermediate, and silicic compositions recording rapid magma mingling without homogenisation, involving evolved FeTi-basalt and silicic melt with composition identical to that produced by the 1821–1823 AD Eyjafjallajökull summit eruption. The time-dependent change in the magma composition suggests a binary mixing process with changing end-member compositions and proportions. Beginning of May, a new injection of primitive basalt was recorded by deep seismicity, appearance of Mg-rich olivine phenocrysts together with high sulphur dioxide output and presence of sulphide crystals. Thus, the composition of the basaltic injection became more magnesian and hotter with time provoking changes in the silicic mixing end-member from pre-existing melt to the solid carapace of the magma chamber. Finally, decreasing proportions of the mafic end-member with time in the erupted mixed-magma demonstrate that injections of Mg-rich basalt was the motor of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull explosive eruption, and that its decreasing inflow terminated the eruption. Significant quantity of silicic magma is thus still present in the interior of the volcano. Our results show that detailed sampling during the entire eruption was essential for deciphering the complex magmatic processes at play, i.e. the dynamics of the magma mingling and mixing. Finally, the rapid compositional changes in the eruptive products suggest that magma mingling occurs on a timescale of a few hours to days whereas the interval between the first detected magma injection and eruption was several months.

Description: Pore formation during dehydration of a polycrystalline gypsum sample observed and quantified in a time-series synchrotron X-ray micro-tomography experiment Solid Earth, 3, 71-86, 2012 Author(s): F. Fusseis, C. Schrank, J. Liu, A. Karrech, S. Llana-Fúnez, X. Xiao, and K. Regenauer-Lieb We conducted an in-situ X-ray micro-computed tomography heating experiment at the Advanced Photon Source (USA) to dehydrate an unconfined 2.3 mm diameter cylinder of Volterra Gypsum. We used a purpose-built X-ray transparent furnace to heat the sample to 388 K for a total of 310 min to acquire a three-dimensional time-series tomography dataset comprising nine time steps. The voxel size of 2.2 μm 3 proved sufficient to pinpoint reaction initiation and the organization of drainage architecture in space and time. We observed that dehydration commences across a narrow front, which propagates from the margins to the centre of the sample in more than four hours. The advance of this front can be fitted with a square-root function, implying that the initiation of the reaction in the sample can be described as a diffusion process. Novel parallelized computer codes allow quantifying the geometry of the porosity and the drainage architecture from the very large tomographic datasets (2048 3 voxels) in unprecedented detail. We determined position, volume, shape and orientation of each resolvable pore and tracked these properties over the duration of the experiment. We found that the pore-size distribution follows a power law. Pores tend to be anisotropic but rarely crack-shaped and have a preferred orientation, likely controlled by a pre-existing fabric in the sample. With on-going dehydration, pores coalesce into a single interconnected pore cluster that is connected to the surface of the sample cylinder and provides an effective drainage pathway. Our observations can be summarized in a model in which gypsum is stabilized by thermal expansion stresses and locally increased pore fluid pressures until the dehydration front approaches to within about 100 μm. Then, the internal stresses are released and dehydration happens efficiently, resulting in new pore space. Pressure release, the production of pores and the advance of the front are coupled in a feedback loop.

Description: Fire history in western Patagonia from paired tree-ring fire-scar and charcoal records Climate of the Past, 8, 451-466, 2012 Author(s): A. Holz, S. Haberle, T. T. Veblen, R. De Pol-Holz, and J. Southon Fire history reconstructions are typically based on tree ages and tree-ring fire scars or on charcoal in sedimentary records from lakes or bogs, but rarely on both. In this study of fire history in western Patagonia (47–48° S) in southern South America (SSA) we compared three sedimentary charcoal records collected in bogs with tree-ring fire-scar data collected at 13 nearby sample sites. We examined the temporal and spatial correspondence between the two fire proxies and also compared them to published charcoal records from distant sites in SSA, and with published proxy reconstructions of regional climate variability and large-scale climate modes. Two of our three charcoal records record fire activity for the last 4 ka yr and one for the last 11 ka yr. For the last ca. 400 yr, charcoal accumulation peaks tend to coincide with high fire activity in the tree-ring fire scar records, but the charcoal records failed to detect some of the fire activity recorded by tree rings. Potentially, this discrepancy reflects low-severity fires that burn in herbaceous and other fine fuels without depositing charcoal in the sedimentary record. Periods of high fire activity tended to be synchronous across sample areas, across proxy types, and with proxy records of regional climatic variability as well as major climate drivers. Fire activity throughout the Holocene in western Patagonia has responded to regional climate variation affecting a broad region of southern South America that is teleconnected to both tropical- and high-latitude climate drivers-El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. An early Holocene peak in fire activity pre-dates any known human presence in our study area, and consequently implicates lightning as the ignition source. In contrast, the increased fire activity during the 20th century, which was concomitantly recorded by charcoal from all the sampled bogs and at all fire-scar sample sites, is attributed to human-set fires and is outside the range of variability characteristic of these ecosystems over many centuries and probably millennia.

Description: Exploring errors in paleoclimate proxy reconstructions using Monte Carlo simulations: paleotemperature from mollusk and coral geochemistry Climate of the Past, 8, 433-450, 2012 Author(s): M. Carré, J. P. Sachs, J. M. Wallace, and C. Favier Quantitative reconstructions of the past climate statistics from geochemical coral or mollusk records require quantified error bars in order to properly interpret the amplitude of the climate change and to perform meaningful comparisons with climate model outputs. We introduce here a more precise categorization of reconstruction errors, differentiating the error bar due to the proxy calibration uncertainty from the standard error due to sampling and variability in the proxy formation process. Then, we propose a numerical approach based on Monte Carlo simulations with surrogate proxy-derived climate records. These are produced by perturbing a known time series in a way that mimics the uncertainty sources in the proxy climate reconstruction. A freely available algorithm, MoCo, was designed to be parameterized by the user and to calculate realistic systematic and standard errors of the mean and the variance of the annual temperature, and of the mean and the variance of the temperature seasonality reconstructed from marine accretionary archive geochemistry. In this study, the algorithm is used for sensitivity experiments in a case study to characterize and quantitatively evaluate the sensitivity of systematic and standard errors to sampling size, stochastic uncertainty sources, archive-specific biological limitations, and climate non-stationarity. The results of the experiments yield an illustrative example of the range of variations of the standard error and the systematic error in the reconstruction of climate statistics in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Thus, we show that the sample size and the climate variability are the main sources of the standard error. The experiments allowed the identification and estimation of systematic bias that would not otherwise be detected because of limited modern datasets. Our study demonstrates that numerical simulations based on Monte Carlo analyses are a simple and powerful approach to improve the understanding of the proxy records. We show that the standard error for the climate statistics linearly increases with the climate variability, which means that the accuracy of the error estimated by MoCo is limited by the climate non-stationarity.

Description: The Nexus Land-Use model version 1.0, an approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 571-638, 2012 Author(s): F. Souty, T. Brunelle, P. Dumas, B. Dorin, P. Ciais, R. Crassous, C. Müller, and A. Bondeau Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i) a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs such as industrial fertilisers; (ii) a detailed representation of the livestock production system subdivided into an intensive and an extensive component, and (iii) a spatially explicit distribution of potential (maximal) crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL). The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation for farmers. The land-use modelling approach described in this paper entails several advantages. Firstly, it makes it possible to explore interactions among different types of biomass demand for food and animal feed, in a consistent approach, including indirect effects on land-use change resulting from international trade. Secondly, yield variations induced by the possible expansion of croplands on less suitable marginal lands are modelled by using regional land area distributions of potential yields, and a calculated boundary between intensive and extensive production. The model equations and parameter values are first described in details. Then, idealised scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are described, and their impacts on pasture and cropland areas are investigated.

Description: The regulation of the air: a hypothesis Solid Earth, 3, 87-96, 2012 Author(s): E. G. Nisbet, C. M. R. Fowler, and R. E. R. Nisbet We propose the hypothesis that natural selection, acting on the specificity or preference for CO 2 over O 2 of the enzyme rubisco (ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase), has controlled the CO 2 :O 2 ratio of the atmosphere since the evolution of photosynthesis and has also sustained the Earth's greenhouse-set surface temperature. Rubisco works in partnership with the nitrogen-fixing enzyme nitrogenase to control atmospheric pressure. Together, these two enzymes control global surface temperature and indirectly the pH and oxygenation of the ocean. Thus, the co-evolution of these two enzymes may have produced clement conditions on the Earth's surface, allowing life to be sustained.

Description: Modelling sub-grid wetland in the ORCHIDEE global land surface model: evaluation against river discharges and remotely sensed data Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 683-735, 2012 Author(s): B. Ringeval, B. Decharme, S. L. Piao, P. Ciais, F. Papa, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, C. Prigent, P. Friedlingstein, I. Gouttevin, C. Koven, and A. Ducharne The quality of the global hydrological simulations performed by Land Surface Models (LSMs) strongly depends on processes that occur at unresolved spatial scales. Approaches such as TOPMODEL have been developed, which allow soil moisture redistribution within each grid-cell, based upon sub-grid scale topography. Moreover, the coupling between TOPMODEL and a LSM appears as a potential way to simulate wetland extent dynamic and its sensitivity to climate, a recently identified research problem for biogeochemical modelling, including methane emissions. Global evaluation of the coupling between TOPMODEL and an LSM is difficult, and prior attempts have been indirect, based on the evaluation of the simulated river flow. This study presents a new way to evaluate this coupling, within the ORCHIDEE LSM, using remote sensing data of inundated areas. Because of differences in nature between the satellite derived information – inundation extent – and the variable diagnosed by TOPMODEL/ORCHIDEE – area at maximum soil water content –, the evaluation focuses on the spatial distribution of these two quantities as well as on their temporal variation. Despite some difficulties in exactly matching observed localized inundated events, we obtain a rather good agreement in the distribution of these two quantities at a global scale. Floodplains are not accounted for in the model, and this is a major limitation. The difficulty of reproducing the year-to-year variability of the observed inundated area (for instance, the decreasing trend by the end of 90s) is also underlined. Classical indirect evaluation based on comparison between simulated and observed riverflow is also performed and underlines difficulties to simulate riverflow after coupling with TOPMODEL. The relationship between inundation and river flow at the basin scale in the model is analyzed, using both methods (evaluation against remote sensing data and riverflow). Finally, we discuss the potential of the TOPMODEL/LSM coupling to simulate wetland areas. A major limitation of the coupling for this purpose is linked to its ability to simulate a global wetland coverage consistent with the commonly used datasets. However, it seems to be a good opportunity to account for the wetland areas sensitivity to the climate and thus to simulate its temporal variability.

Description: Precipitation as the main driver of Neoglacial fluctuations of Gualas glacier, Northern Patagonian Icefield Climate of the Past, 8, 519-534, 2012 Author(s): S. Bertrand, K. A. Hughen, F. Lamy, J.-B. W. Stuut, F. Torrejón, and C. B. Lange Glaciers are frequently used as indicators of climate change. However, the link between past glacier fluctuations and climate variability is still highly debated. Here, we investigate the mid- to late-Holocene fluctuations of Gualas Glacier, one of the northernmost outlet glaciers of the Northern Patagonian Icefield, using a multi-proxy sedimentological and geochemical analysis of a 15 m long fjord sediment core from Golfo Elefantes, Chile, and historical documents from early Spanish explorers. Our results show that the core can be sub-divided into three main lithological units that were deposited under very different hydrodynamic conditions. Between 5400 and 4180 cal yr BP and after 750 cal yr BP, sedimentation in Golfo Elefantes was characterized by the rapid deposition of fine silt, most likely transported by fluvio-glacial processes. By contrast, the sediment deposited between 4130 and 850 cal yr BP is composed of poorly sorted sand that is free of shells. This interval is particularly marked by high magnetic susceptibility values and Zr concentrations, and likely reflects a major advance of Gualas glacier towards Golfo Elefantes during the Neoglaciation. Several thin silt layers observed in the upper part of the core are interpreted as secondary fluctuations of Gualas glacier during the Little Ice Age, in agreement with historical and dendrochronological data. Our interpretation of the Golfo Elefantes glaciomarine sediment record in terms of fluctuations of Gualas glacier is in excellent agreement with the glacier chronology proposed for the Southern Patagonian Icefield, which is based on terrestrial (moraine) deposits. By comparing our results with independent proxy records of precipitation and sea surface temperature, we suggest that the fluctuations of Gualas glacier during the last 5400 yr were mainly driven by changes in precipitation in the North Patagonian Andes.

Description: A critical humidity threshold for monsoon transitions Climate of the Past, 8, 535-544, 2012 Author(s): J. Schewe, A. Levermann, and H. Cheng Monsoon systems around the world are governed by the so-called moisture-advection feedback. Here we show that, in a minimal conceptual model, this feedback implies a critical threshold with respect to the atmospheric specific humidity q o over the ocean adjacent to the monsoon region. If q o falls short of this critical value q o c , monsoon rainfall over land cannot be sustained. Such a case could occur if evaporation from the ocean was reduced, e.g. due to low sea surface temperatures. Within the restrictions of the conceptual model, we estimate q o c from present-day reanalysis data for four major monsoon systems, and demonstrate how this concept can help understand abrupt variations in monsoon strength on orbital timescales as found in proxy records.

Description: Constraining fault interpretation through tomographic velocity gradients: application to northern Cascadia Solid Earth, 3, 53-61, 2012 Author(s): K. Ramachandran Spatial gradients of tomographic velocities are seldom used in interpretation of subsurface fault structures. This study shows that spatial velocity gradients can be used effectively in identifying subsurface discontinuities in the horizontal and vertical directions. Three-dimensional velocity models constructed through tomographic inversion of active source and/or earthquake traveltime data are generally built from an initial 1-D velocity model that varies only with depth. Regularized tomographic inversion algorithms impose constraints on the roughness of the model that help to stabilize the inversion process. Final velocity models obtained from regularized tomographic inversions have smooth three-dimensional structures that are required by the data. Final velocity models are usually analyzed and interpreted either as a perturbation velocity model or as an absolute velocity model. Compared to perturbation velocity model, absolute velocity models have an advantage of providing constraints on lithology. Both velocity models lack the ability to provide sharp constraints on subsurface faults. An interpretational approach utilizing spatial velocity gradients applied to northern Cascadia shows that subsurface faults that are not clearly interpretable from velocity model plots can be identified by sharp contrasts in velocity gradient plots. This interpretation resulted in inferring the locations of the Tacoma, Seattle, Southern Whidbey Island, and Darrington Devil's Mountain faults much more clearly. The Coast Range Boundary fault, previously hypothesized on the basis of sedimentological and tectonic observations, is inferred clearly from the gradient plots. Many of the fault locations imaged from gradient data correlate with earthquake hypocenters, indicating their seismogenic nature.

Description: Evaluation of a near-global eddy-resolving ocean model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 4305-4354, 2012 Author(s): P. R. Oke, D. A. Griffin, A. Schiller, R. J. Matear, R. Fiedler, J. Mansbridge, A. Lenton, M. Cahill, M. A. Chamberlain, and K. Ridgway Analysis of the variability in an 18-yr run of a near-global, eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model coupled with biogeochemistry is presented. Comparisons between modelled and observed mean sea level (MSL), mixed-layer depth (MLD), sea-level anomaly (SLA), sea-surface temperature (SST), and Chlorophyll a indicate that the model variability is realistic. We find some systematic errors in the modelled MLD, with the model generally deeper than observations, that results in errors in the Chlorophyll a , owing to the strong biophysical coupling. We evaluate several other metrics in the model, including the zonally-averaged seasonal cycle of SST, meridional overturning, volume transports through key Straits and passages, zonal averaged temperature and salinity, and El Nino-related SST indices. We find that the modelled seasonal cycle in SST is 0.5–1.5 °C weaker than observed; volume transports of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the East Australian Current, and Indonesian Throughflow are in good agreement with observational estimates; and the correlation between the modelled and observed NINO SST indices exceed 0.91. Most aspects of the model circulation are realistic. We conclude that the model output is suitable for broader analysis to better understand ocean dynamics and ocean variability.

Description: Possible earthquake trigger for 6th century mass wasting deposit at Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania) Climate of the Past, 8, 2069-2078, 2012 Author(s): B. Wagner, A. Francke, R. Sulpizio, G. Zanchetta, K. Lindhorst, S. Krastel, H. Vogel, J. Rethemeyer, G. Daut, A. Grazhdani, B. Lushaj, and S. Trajanovski Lake Ohrid shared by the Republics of Albania and Macedonia is formed by a tectonically active graben within the south Balkans and suggested to be the oldest lake in Europe. Several studies have shown that the lake provides a valuable record of climatic and environmental changes and a distal tephrostratigraphic record of volcanic eruptions from Italy. Fault structures identified in seismic data demonstrate that sediments have also the potential to record tectonic activity in the region. Here, we provide an example of linking seismic and sedimentological information with tectonic activity and historical documents. Historical documents indicate that a major earthquake destroyed the city of Lychnidus (today: city of Ohrid) in the early 6th century AD. Multichannel seismic profiles, parametric sediment echosounder profiles, and a 10.08 m long sediment record from the western part of the lake indicate a 2 m thick mass wasting deposit, which is tentatively correlated with this earthquake. The mass wasting deposit is chronologically well constrained, as it directly overlays the AD 472/AD 512 tephra. Moreover, radiocarbon dates and cross correlation with other sediment sequences with similar geochemical characteristics of the Holocene indicate that the mass wasting event took place prior to the onset of the Medieval Warm Period, and is attributed it to one of the known earthquakes in the region in the early 6th century AD.

Description: Sea-ice dynamics strongly promote Snowball Earth initiation and destabilize tropical sea-ice margins Climate of the Past, 8, 2079-2092, 2012 Author(s): A. Voigt and D. S. Abbot The Snowball Earth bifurcation, or runaway ice-albedo feedback, is defined for particular boundary conditions by a critical CO 2 and a critical sea-ice cover (SI), both of which are essential for evaluating hypotheses related to Neoproterozoic glaciations. Previous work has shown that the Snowball Earth bifurcation, denoted as (CO 2 , SI) * , differs greatly among climate models. Here, we study the effect of bare sea-ice albedo, sea-ice dynamics and ocean heat transport on (CO 2 , SI) * in the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM with Marinoan (~ 635 Ma) continents and solar insolation (94% of modern). In its standard setup, ECHAM5/MPI-OM initiates a~Snowball Earth much more easily than other climate models at (CO 2 , SI) * ≈ (500 ppm, 55%). Replacing the model's standard bare sea-ice albedo of 0.75 by a much lower value of 0.45, we find (CO 2 , SI) * ≈ (204 ppm, 70%). This is consistent with previous work and results from net evaporation and local melting near the sea-ice margin. When we additionally disable sea-ice dynamics, we find that the Snowball Earth bifurcation can be pushed even closer to the equator and occurs at a hundred times lower CO 2 : (CO 2 , SI) * ≈ (2 ppm, 85%). Therefore, the simulation of sea-ice dynamics in ECHAM5/MPI-OM is a dominant determinant of its high critical CO 2 for Snowball initiation relative to other models. Ocean heat transport has no effect on the critical sea-ice cover and only slightly decreases the critical CO 2 . For disabled sea-ice dynamics, the state with 85% sea-ice cover is stabilized by the Jormungand mechanism and shares characteristics with the Jormungand climate states. However, there is no indication of the Jormungand bifurcation and hysteresis in ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The state with 85% sea-ice cover therefore is a soft Snowball state rather than a true Jormungand state. Overall, our results demonstrate that differences in sea-ice dynamics schemes can be at least as important as differences in sea-ice albedo for causing the spread in climate models' estimates of the Snowball Earth bifurcation. A detailed understanding of Snowball Earth initiation therefore requires future research on sea-ice dynamics to determine which model's simulation is most realistic.